Full text of National Economic Trends : June 1995
The full text on this page is automatically extracted from the file linked above and may contain errors and inconsistencies.
JUNE 1995 National Economic Trends The New Chain Gang Following the 1995 benchmark revisions to the national income and product accounts, the Bureau o f Economic Analysis will replace the present fixedweighted indexes o f real GDP and prices with chaintype indexes. A fixed-weighted index is the ratio between a weighted average o f prices or output in the current period and a corresponding weighted average for a fixed base period, using weights from the base period to calculate both averages. Fixed-weighted methods are simpler, but distort current output or price changes when there are large changes in the composition o f prices and output over time. The chain-type index attempts to remedy this problem by averaging the changes in two fixed-weighted indexes, one based in the previous period and the other based in the current period. A simple example illustrates the advantage o f a chain-type price index using two goods, apples and oranges, over four time periods labeled April through July. Four fixed-weighted indexes are shown, each using a different base period. In May the price o f apples rises compared to the price o f oranges, leading to increased relative consumption o f oranges. Inflation for May is best measured using a base period closer to May, because the relative quantity weightings are more current. With a July base period, the quantity o f apples is much smaller, lowering their weight in the index and thus greatly reducing the impact o f the price increase on measured inflation for May. Likewise, inflation for July is best measured using a base period nearer July. With an April base period, the quantity o f oranges in the weighting is much smaller, greatly reducing the impact o f the price decrease for oranges on measured inflation for July. Inflation measured by the chain-type index is approximately equal to the simple average of the two fixed-weighted values, using the previous and current periods as the base periods (shown in the shaded areas). Thus, a chain-type price index is a compromise that better reflects the current consumption mix. By interchanging the roles o f prices and quantities (using prices as the weights on quantities of the various goods produced), a parallel example could be constructed to show how a chain-type output index addresses the measurement problem presented by a fixed-weighted index o f real GDP. — Stephen M. Stohs Hypothetical Prices and Quantities of Apples and Oranges Price o f apples Quantity o f apples Price o f oranges Quantity o f oranges April May June July 12 6 20 3 20 2 20 2 4 7 4 10 4 15 2 30 June July Fixed-Weighted Price Indexes Base Period April April Index Inflation Rate 100 May Index Inflation Rate 76 June Index Inflation Rate 84 July Index Inflation Rate 144 May 148 48% 100 32% 148 0% 134 -9% 80 -20% 100 19% 100 0% 100 0% 160 11% 160 0% 70 -30% 100 -38% 140 0% 92 -34% Chain-Type Price Index Index Inflation Rate 100 140 40% Note: The chain-type index measure of inflation approximately equals the arith metic average of the inflation measures for the two underlying fixed-weighted price indexes. V p'— , where t is current period, b is base period. Fixed-weighted index: P( = ~ 2 , PA Chain-weighted index: CPt = I xCP,_, Views expressed do not necessarily reflect official positions of the Federal Reserve System National Econom ic Trends is published monthly by the Research Division o f the Federal Reserve Bank o f St. Louis. For more information on data, please call (314) 444-8573. Single-copy subscriptions are available free o f charge by writing Research Division, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, Post Office Box 442, St. Louis, M O 63166-0442 or by calling (314) 444-8808 or (314) 444-8809. Information in this publication is also included in the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) electronic bulletin board. You can access FRED with a personal computer and a modem at 314-621-1824. Table of Contents Page 3-4 5-6 7-8 9 10 11 12-13 14 15 16-17 18-21 22 23 24 25-27 Nominal and Real Gross Domestic Product (G D P) Price Deflators Consumer and Producer Prices Employment Costs Productivity and Unit Labor Cost Industrial Production Employment and Unemployment Real Personal Income Retail Sales Inventories and Final Sales Components o f Real GDP U.S. International Transactions Gross Saving and Investment Corporate Profits and Cash Flow Government Budget Data How to Use the Triangles in this Publication This publication makes extensive use o f “triangles” to present compound annual rates o f change over various peri ods. Consider the simple, abbreviated triangle below for quarterly Real Gross Domestic Product from the first quar ter of 1990 to the fourth quarter o f 1991. From this triangle, the reader can obtain rates o f change from any date on the top row to any date along the left column; actual dollar figures for the periods in the left-most column are shown in the right-most column. In our example, the compound annual rate o f growth from n/1990 to m/1991 can be found at the intersection o f the D/1990 column and the m/1991 row, a -0.6 percent rate; similarly, the annual rate of change from 1/1990 to IV/1991 is -0.2 percent. Reading down the diagonal gives the growth rate from one quarter to the next. Real Gross Domestic Product (Compound Annual Rates of Change) Terminal Quarter Billions of Dollars Initial Quarter 1-90 2-90 3-90 4-90 2-90 1.5 3-90 0.3 4-90 -0.8 -2.0 -3.2 1-91 -1.1 -2.0 -2.6 -2.1 1-91 3-91 4,917.1 -0.9 4,906.5 4,867.2 4,842.0 2-91 -0.5 -1.0 -1.0 0.0 2.2 3-91 -0.3 -0.6 -0.5 0.3 1.6 4-91 -0.2 -0.5 -0.4 0.3 1.1 Dollars are measured using 1987 prices. Annual Rates 2-91 2 4,867.9 4,879.9 1.0 0.5 0.1 4,880.8 Gross Domestic Product Seasonally Adjusted Trillions of Dollars Trillions of Dollars Real GDP is measured using 1987 prices. Shaded area represents a period of business recession. Percentages are annual rates of change for periods indicated. Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Gross Domestic Product (Compound Annual Rates of Change) Terminal Quarter Billions of Dollars Annual Rates 2-90 3-90 4-90 1-91 2-91 3-91 4-91 Initial Quarter 1-92 2-92 3-92 4-92 1-93 2-93 3-93 4-93 1-94 2-94 3-94 4-94 2-90 3-90 4-90 1-91 2-91 3-91 4-91 1-92 2-92 3-92 4-92 1-93 2-93 3-93 4-93 1-94 2-94 3-94 4-94 First quarter data are preliminary estimates. Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis June 1,1995 3 Real Gross Domestic Product 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 199 4 1995 Shaded area represents a period of business recession. —“ Percent change from the previous year — — — - Ten-year moving average of the growth rate Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Real Gross Domestic Product (Compound Annual Rates of Change) Terminal Quarter 3-90 4-90 1-91 2-91 3-91 4-91 1-92 2-92 3-92 4-92 1-93 2-93 3-93 4-93 1-94 2-94 3-94 4-94 1-95 2-90 3-90 4-90 -0.9 -2.0 -3.2 -2.0 -2.6 -2.1 0.0 -1.0 -1.0 0.3 -0.6 -0.5 -0.5 -0.4 0.3 0.0 0.2 0.8 0.3 0.5 1.1 0.7 0.9 1.4 1.2 1.4 2.0 1.2 1.4 1.9 1.3 1.5 1.9 1.4 1.6 2.0 1.7 1.9 2.3 1.8 2.0 2.4 2.0 2.2 2.5 2.1 2.3 2.6 2.4 2.8 2.2 2.3 2.4 2.8 1-91 2-91 2-90 3-90 4-90 1-91 2-91 2.2 1.6 1.1 1.6 1.7 20 2.6 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.8 2.8 2.9 3.0 3.1 3.1 1.0 0.5 1.4 1.6 2.0 2.6 2.4 2.4 2,4 2.8 2.9 3.0 3.0 3.2 3.2 3-91 4-91 0.1 1.6 1.9 2.3 3.0 2.7 2.6 2.6 3.0 3.1 3.1 3.2 3.4 3.3 3.1 2.8 3.0 3.7 3.2 3.0 3.0 3.4 Initial Quarter 1-92 2-92 3-92 4-92 3.4 3.5 2.4 2.9 3.9 3.2 3.0 3.0 3.4 3.4 3.5 3.5 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.7 3.6 3-91 4-91 3.5 4.6 3.5 3.2 3.1 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.7 3.8 3.7 5.7 3.4 3.1 3.0 3.6 3.6 3.7 3.7 3.9 3.7 1.2 1.8 2.1 3.1 3.2 3.3 3.4 3.6 3.5 1-92 2-92 3-92 4-92 Dollars are measured using 1987 prices. First quarter data are preliminary estimates. Billions of Dollars Annual Rates 1-93 2-93 3-93 4-93 2.4 2.5 3.8 3.7 3.7 2.7 4.5 4.1 4.1 3.8 4.0 3.8 4.1 4.2 4.0 6.3 4,8 4.6 4.4 4.6 4,2 3.3 3.7 3.8 4.1 3.8 1-93 2-93 3-93 4-93 1-94 2-94 3-94 4-94 4.1 4.1 4.4 4,0 4,906.5 4,867.2 4,842.0 4,867.9 4,879.9 4,880.8 4,918.5 4,947.5 4,990.5 5,060.7 5,075.3 5,105.4 5,139.4 5,218.0 5,261.1 5,314.1 4.0 4.6 3.9 5.1 3.9 2.7 5,367.0 5,433.8 5,470.0 1-94 2-94 3-94 4-94 Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis June 1 ,1 9 9 5 4 Implicit Price Deflator for GDP Percent Change From Previous Year Seasonally Adjusted Percent Percent Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Implicit Price Deflator (Compound Annual Rates of Change) Terminal Quarter 2-90 3-90 4-90 1-91 2-91 3-91 4-91 Initial Quarter 1-92 2-92 3-92 4-92 1-93 2-93 3-93 4-93 1-94 2-94 3-94 4-94 2-90 3-90 4-90 1-91 2-91 3-91 4-91 1-92 2-92 3-92 4-92 1-93 2-93 3-93 4-93 1-94 2-94 3-94 4-94 Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis June 1,1995 First quarter data are preliminary estimates. 1987=100 5 GDP Fixed Weight Deflator (Compound Annual Rates of Change) Terminal Quarter 1-91 2-91 3-91 4-91 3.1 3.1 3.1 2.7 3.0 2.9 3.7 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.5 3.2 3.3 3.2 3.3 3.1 3.1 3.2 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.2 3.3 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 2.9 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 2.9 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 2.9 3.0 2.9 3.0 2.9 3.0 2.9 3.0 3.0 1-91 2-91 3-91 4-91 CÔ 3-90 4-90 1-91 2-91 3-91 4-91 1-92 2-92 3-92 4-92 1-93 2-93 3-93 4-93 1-94 2-94 3-94 4-94 1-95 2-90 3-90 4-90 5.1 4.3 3.5 4.6 4.4 5.3 4.3 4.0 4.2 4.0 3.8 3.8 3.8 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.8 3.6 3.7 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.6 3.4 3.6 3.4 3.4 3.3 3.5 3.2 3.2 3.4 3.2 3.2 3.3 3.2 3.1 3.3 3.2 3.3 3.1 3.2 3.3 3.1 3.2 3.1 3.1 3.2 3.1 3.1 2-90 3-90 4-90 Initial Quarter 1-92 2-92 3-92 4-92 3.4 3.0 2.7 3.0 2.8 3.0 3.2 3.2 3.5 4.0 3.1 3.2 3.0 3.3 2.9 2.8 2.8 2.9 2.8 2.8 2.9 2.8 2.8 2.9 2.8 2.8 2.9 2.9 2.8 2.8 2.9 2.8 2.9 2.8 2.9 2.9 2.8 2.8 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.9 1-92 2-92 3-92 4-92 1987=100 1-93 2-93 3-93 4-93 1-94 2-94 3-94 4-94 2.6 2.3 2.4 1.9 2.2 2.6 2.5 2.7 2.9 2.5 2.6 2.6 2.9 3.0 2.7 2.7 2.9 3.0 2.7 2.7 2.9 2.9 2.7 2.8 2.9 3.0 1-93 2-93 3-93 4-93 First quarter data are preliminary estimates. 3.2 3.0 2.8 2.9 2.8 2.8 3.0 2.9 3.0 3.1 1-94 2-94 3-94 4-94 114.3 115.3 116.8 117.7 118.6 119.4 120.5 121.5 122.3 123.2 124.4 125.2 125.8 126.6 127.5 128.5 129.4 130.3 131.3 Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis June 1 ,1 9 9 5 Personal Consumption Expenditure Deflator (Compound Annual Rates of Change) Terminal Quarter 3-90 4-90 3-92 4-92 1-93 2-93 3-93 4-93 1-94 2-94 3-94 4-94 1-95 1-91 2-91 2.4 2.7 2.9 3 91 4-91 Initial Quarter 1 92 2 92 3-92 4-92 3.1 3.2 1-94 2-94 3-94 4-94 3.4 3.0 3.2 2,9 3.1 3.0 2.9 2.7 2.7 2.6 3.3 3.4 3.0 3.2 3.1 3.0 2.8 2.7 2.6 3.0 3.2 2 .6 2 .6 2.7 2.7 2 .6 2 .6 2.6 2.6 1-91 2-91 3.5 3.1 3.0 2.8 2.7 3.3 3.5 2.9 3.1 3.0 2.9 2.7 2 .6 2.5 2.5 2 .6 2.6 2.6 2.5 2 .6 2.5 2.6 3-91 4-91 2.5 3.7 2.6 3.1 2.9 1.6 3.9 3.3 2.6 2 .8 2 .6 2.4 2.9 2.6 2.0 2.3 2.5 2.5 2.3 2.5 2 .1 2.3 2.2 2.3 1.9 2.4 2.3 2.4 2 .1 2.4 2.5 2.5 2.3 2.4 2.3 2.4 2 .2 2.4 2.3 2.2 2.5 1-92 2-92 3-92 4-92 2 .8 2.7 First quarter data are preliminary estimates. 1987=100 1-93 2 93 3-93 4-93 115.6 117.5 118.5 119.2 C O ; 1-91 2-91 3-91 4-91 1-92 2-92 2-90 3-90 4-90 6.1 6.4 6.7 5.4 5.1 3.4 4.7 4.2 2.9 4.3 3.9 3.0 4.2 3.8 3.1 4.1 3.7 3.1 4.0 3.7 3.2 3.7 3.4 3.0 3.8 3.5 3.1 3.4 3.0 3.6 3.5 3.3 3.0 3.4 3.1 2.8 3.3 3.1 2 .8 3.1 2.9 2.6 3.1 2.7 2.9 3.1 3.0 2.7 3.1 2.7 2.9 3.0 2.9 2,6 2-90 3-90 4-90 2 .2 1.8 1.9 1.8 1,3 1.7 1,6 2 .2 1.7 1.3 2 .0 2 .0 2 .2 2 .2 2.4 2.5 2 .2 2.3 2.4 2 .2 2.4 2,4 2,2 2-2 1-93 2-93 3-93 4-93 2.2 2.2 3.2 3.2 3.1 2.7 2.5 1.9 2.7 2.5 2.2 2.5 1-94 2-94 3-94 4-94 120.1 121.1 122.1 123.2 123.7 124.9 125.7 126.4 126.8 127.5 127.9 128.9 129.9 130.5 131.3 Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis June 1,1995 6 Consumer Price Index Percent Change From Previous Year Seasonally Adjusted Percent 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 Percent 1994 1995 Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Consumer Price Index (Compound Annual Rates of Change) Terminal Month 10-93 11-93 12-93 1-94 2-94 3-94 4-94 5-94 6-94 7-94 8-94 9-94 10-94 11-94 12-94 1-95 2-95 3-95 4-95 Initial Month 9-93 10-93 11-93 12-93 1-94 2-94 3-94 4-94 5-94 6-94 7-94 8-94 9-94 10-94 11-94 12-94 1-95 2-95 3-95 5.9 4.2 2.5 3.6 2.5 2.5 1.9 2.9 1.7 0.8 2.3 3.0 2.2 2.1 3.3 2.3 2.9 2.3 2.2 2.9 2.5 2.3 2.9 2.3 2.3 2.8 2.5 2.5 2.2 2.7 2.2 2.1 1.6 2.5 2.2 2.1 2.9 2.5 4.1 2.5 2.7 2.9 2.5 2.8 2.7 2.9 2.6 3.7 2.6 3.0 2.6 2.9 3.3 2.9 2.8 3.1 3.5 4.1 4.1 2.8 2.8 2.9 3.3 3.2 3.2 5.0 3.0 3.7 2.8 3.2 3.3 2.8 3.6 2.8 3.1 3.1 3.7 2.4 2.9 2.7 2.9 3.0 3.3 2.7 3.1 2.7 2.9 2.9 3.0 2.0 1.6 2.8 2.6 2.6 2.8 2.8 3.0 2.8 2.6 2.8 2.7 2.6 1.9 1.6 1.6 2.8 2.6 2.6 2.7 2.8 2.9 2.7 2.6 2.6 2.8 2.7 2.0 2.4 1.9 2.0 2.9 2.7 2.9 2.7 2.7 2.9 2.9 3.1 2.8 2.4 2.4 2.7 3.2 4.1 2.9 2.8 2.9 2.7 2.9 2.9 3.1 3.0 2.7 2.7 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.6 2.6 3.7 3.2 2.8 3.2 2.9 2.7 2.9 2.7 2.9 2.9 2.7 2.8 3.0 2.9 2.6 2.7 3.2 2.8 2.5 3.0 2.8 2.4 3.0 2.8 2.8 3.0 3.0 2.9 3.0 3.1 3.1 2.8 2.9 3.5 3.2 3.1 3.1 3.4 3.6 3.6 4.9 1982-84=100 145.7 146.0 146.3 146.4 146.8 147.1 147.4 147.6 148.1 148.5 149.1 149.4 149.6 149.8 150.1 150.6 151.0 151.3 151.9 9-93 10-93 11-93 12-93 1-94 2-94 3-94 4-94 5-94 6-94 7-94 8-94 9-94 10-94 11-94 12-94 1-95 2-95 3-95 Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis June 1,1995 7 Producer Price Index — Finished Goods Percent Change From Previous Year Seasonally Adjusted Percent Percent Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Producer Price Index - Finished Goods (Compound Annual Rates of Change) Terminal Month Initial Month 9-93 10-93 11-93 12-93 1-94 2-94 3-94 4-94 5-94 6-94 7-94 8-94 9-94 10-94 11-94 12-94 1-95 2-95 3-95 1982=100 124.1 124.4 10-93 11-93 12-93 1-94 0.0 1.5 0.6 1.9 2.9 1.0 2.6 -1.0 2.4 5.9 1-95 2-95 3-95 4-95 1.7 1.8 1.7 1.9 1.8 1.9 1.8 2.0 1.7 1.9 1.7 2.0 1.9 2.1 1.9 2.2 124.3 124.9 1.6 1.8 1.6 1.9 1.5 1.7 1.5 1.8 1.6 1.8 1.7 2.0 1.8 2,0 1.8 2.2 2.4 2.1 2.4 2.3 2.5 2.2 2.6 2.2 2.5 2.2 2.6 1.3 1.8 1.5 2.0 2.6 2.9 2.4 2.9 5.2 4.9 3.9 4.2 3.9 3.9 2.9 3.5 3.9 3.9 2.6 3.4 3.8 1.9 3.2 0.0 2.9 5.8 126.9 127.3 127.3 127.9 9-93 10-93 11-93 12-93 1-94 2-94 3-94 4-94 5-94 6-94 7-94 8-94 9-94 10-94 11-94 12-94 1-95 2-95 3-95 Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis June 1,1995 8 Employment Cost Index and Its Components Percent Change From Previous Year Seasonally Adjusted Percent Percent B enefits l\ f V ------ ^ i > \ ...... .......r ✓ \ \ 9 N - / S T<5tal Compensa tion 1 1 1..... ' I " " 1' I 1990 1989 ^ ' \ 77 Wages and Salai ■ies X >i \ ~............. .............................. ^ «- ^ \ 1 ~r _ _ 1991 ' I •» N i. . ( . , ' \ . 1993 1992 i "T " I | i 1995 1994 Total compensation is the sum of wages, salaries and benefits for private industry workers. Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Employment Cost Index - Total Compensation (Compound Annual Rates of Change) Terminal Quarter 1-93 2-93 3-93 4-93 1-94 2-94 3-94 4-94 1-95 1-91 2-91 3-91 4-91 2-90 3-90 4-90 1-91 2-91 3-91 4-91 4.9 4.5 4.3 4.2 4.0 3.8 3.8 3.8 3.8 3.8 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.6 3.6 3.5 Initial Quarter 1-92 2-92 3-92 4-92 4.1 4.1 4.0 3.7 3.6 3.6 3.7 3.7 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.4 4.0 4.0 3.6 1-94 2-94 3-94 4-94 3.5 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.4 3.3 4.0 3.4 3.2 3.4 3.6 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.3 2.9 2.9 3.2 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.3 3.2 2.8 3.4 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.4 3.4 3.3 110.8 111.9 113.0 113.8 114.6 115.7 3.9 4.1 3.9 3.8 3.7 3.6 3.5 3.5 3.4 3.3 4.2 3.8 3.7 3.6 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.4 3.2 1-92 2-92 3-92 4-92 Data are for the last month of quarter. June 1989=100 1-93 2-93 3-93 4-93 106.2 107.2 108.4 109.7 « 3-90 4-90 1-91 2-91 3-91 4-91 1-92 2-92 3-92 4-92 2-90 3-90 4-90 4.3 3.8 4.0 4.2 4.2 4.6 4.4 4.4 4.7 4.3 4.3 4.5 4.3 4.4 4.3 4.2 4.3 4.2 4.1 4.1 4.0 3.9 3.9 3.9 3.9 3.9 3.9 3.9 3.9 3.9 3.9 3.9 3.9 3.9 3.8 3.8 3.8 3.8 3.8 3.7 3.8 3.7 3.8 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.4 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.2 3.1 3.4 3.4 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.2 3.1 3.4 3.2 3.3 3.3 3.2 3.0 3.2 3.2 3.1 3.0 1-93 2-93 3-93 4-93 3.4 3.3 3.1 2.9 3.3 3.0 2.7 2.6 2.5 2.3 1Î6.9 117.9 118.9 119.9 120.8 121.8 122.8 123.6 124.3 1-94 2-94 3-94 4-94 Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis June 1, 1995 9 Business Productivity and Unit Labor Costs Percent Change From Previous Year Seasonally Adjusted Percent 1989 1990 1991 1992 Percent 1993 Shaded area represents a period of business recession. 199 4 1995 Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Business Sector - Output Per Hour (Compound Annual Rates of Change) Terminal Quarter 1-91 2-91 2-90 3-90 4-90 1-91 2-91 3-91 4-91 Initial Quarter 1-92 2-92 3-92 4-92 1982=100 1-93 2-93 3-93 4-93 ililifc 1-94 2-94 3-94 4-94 110.8 110.5 1-11.4 2.2 00 1.9 2.8 2.4 2.7 2.7 2.1 2.0 2.1 2.4 2.5 2.1 2.2 2.3 2.2 f— 4 05 3-90 4-90 1-91 2-91 3-91 4-91 1-92 2-92 3-92 4-92 1-93 2-93 3-93 4-93 1-94 2-94 3-94 4-94 1-95 2-90 3-90 4-90 -1.1 -1.1 -1.1 0.4 1.1 3.3 1.4 2.7 0.8 0.9 2.3 1.4 1.1 1.6 2.3 2.9 1.7 2.2 1.7 2.0 2.6 2.8 2.3 2.4 2.8 2.0 1.9 2.3 1.6 1.6 1.8 2.1 1.7 1.9 2.2 2.2 2.0 2.5 2.0 2.3 2.5 1.8 2.0 2.2 1.9 2.1 2.3 2.0 2.2 2.4 1.9 2.1 2.3 1.4 1.8 3,0 2.5 2.8 2.8 2.1 1.9 2.1 2.5 2.5 2.1 2.2 2.4 2.2 2.2 3.8 2.9 3.1 3.1 2.2 2.0 2.2 2.6 2.6 2.2 2.3 2.4 2.3 5.4 3.2 3.4 3.4 2,3 2.0 2,2 2.6 2.6 2.2 2.3 2.4 2.3 3-91 4-91 1.1 2.5 2.7 1.5 1.3 1.6 2.2 2.3 1.8 2.0 2.2 2.0 3.9 3.5 1.6 1.4 1.7 2.4 2.5 1.9 2.1 2.3 2.1 3.1 0.5 0.6 1.2 2.1 2.2 1.6 1.9 2.1 1.9 -2.0 -0.7 0.6 1.9 2.0 1.4 1.7 2.0 1.8 1-92 2-92 3-92 4-92 0.7 1.9 3.2 3.1 2.1 2.3 2.6 2.3 3.1 4.5 3.9 2.4 2.7 2.9 2.5 5.9 4.3 2.2 2.6 2.9 2,4 2.7 0.3 1.5 2.1 1.7 1-93 2-93 3-93 4-93 -2.0 0.8 1.9 1,5 3.7 3.9 2.7 4.1 2.2 0.3 1-94 2-94 3-94 4-94 Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of June 1,1995 10 112.0 112,4 113.0 114.5 114.8 115.9 116.8 116.2 116.4 117.3 119.0 119.8 119.2 120.3 121.5 121.6 St. Louis Industrial Production Seasonally Adjusted 19 8 7 -1 0 0 1987=100 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1 99 4 1995 Shaded area represents a period of business recession. Percentages are annual rates of change for periods indicated. Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Industrial Production (Compound Annual Rates of Change) Terminal Month 10-93 11-93 12-93 1-94 2-94 3-94 4-94 5-94 6-94 7-94 8-94 9-94 10-94 11-94 12-94 1-95 2-95 3-95 4-95 Initial Month 9-93 10-93 11-93 12-93 1-94 2-94 3-94 4-94 5-94 6-94 7-94 8-94 9-94 10-94 11-94 12-94 1-95 2-95 3-95 2.2 112.7 6.6 112 8 1 11.1 111 7.3 5.4 0.0 6.0 6.7 7.9 6.9 4.8 9.8 7.4 8.5 7.8 6.8 10.4 10.9 7.2 6.4 1.0 116.7 6.5 7.2 5.8 5.3 4.2 7.4 6.6 7.3 6.6 7.2 6.4 5.7 7.1 6.6 4.9 6,9 6.3 6.6 6.4 5.8 7.0 4.2 5.2 4.2 6.1 6.6 6.0 5.5 6.2 2.1 5.3 5.2 6.3 5.9 6.4 6.9 6.4 6.1 5.8 6.7 5.7 9.5 4.2 5.1 4.8 4.1 5.8 6.1 5.6 5.7 5.0 3.4 4.1 -1.0 4.3 5.7 6.0 5.6 5.1 4.9 4.3 5.6 5.0 3.9 2.0 5.2 4.5 6.2 5.9 5.5 4.8 5.3 5.0 4.7 6.7 8.3 5.9 5.8 5.3 5.4 4.1 6.8 6.1 6.7 6.4 5.9 6.5 6.4 6.7 9.4 11.6 14.9 6.5 6.5 6.4 7.3 8.6 8.8 3.0 6.3 6.5 6.4 5.6 6.1 5.9 7.8 6.2 5.9 6.1 5.9 6.5 5.9 5.8 1.5 0.0 5.9 6.1 5.5 5.1 5.5 5.3 6.4 5.8 5.4 5.9 5.1 6.2 5.6 4.9 3.3 -0.3 -2.0 -3.9 4.8 4.3 4.6 4.1 4.3 5.3 5.5 5.2 5.1 4.3 4.4 4.8 3.6 4.3 2.7 1.6 -1.5 -2.9 -4.3 -4.8 4.8 4.9 4.4 4.1 3.6 3.8 3.4 3.0 4.6 4.2 3.2 2.5 3.3 1987=100 113.7 114.7 114.7 115.6 116.6 117.4 118.0 118.2 119.1 119.0 119.5 120.3 121.7 122.0 122.0 121.6 121.1 9-93 10-93 11-93 12-93 1-94 2-94 3-94 4-94 5-94 6-94 7-94 8-94 9-94 10-94 11-94 12-94 1-95 2-95 3-95 Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis June 1,1995 11 Civilian Employment and Unemployment Rate Seasonally Adjusted Percent Millions of Persons Shaded area represents a period of business recession. Percentages are annual rates of change for periods indicated. * Break in series. January 1994 figures reflect revised data collection procedures and are not directly comparable with previous data. Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Civilian Employment (Compound Annual Rates of Change) Terminal Month «0 C¡¡ 10-93 11-93 12-93 1-94 2-94 3-94 4-94 5-94 6-94 7-94 8-94 9-94 10-94 11-94 12-94 1-95 2-95 3-95 4-95 Thousands of Initial Month 9-93 10-93 11-93 12-93 1-94 2-94 3-94 4-94 5-94 6-94 7-94 8-94 9-94 10-94 11-94 12-94 1-95 2-95 3-95 3.8 4.0 3.9 IN ^ K IE s 3,7 3.7 3.3 6.7 8.1 13.1 6.0 5.4 6.4 7.9 5.8 3.0 4.4 4.6 5.1 1.3 -0.5 4.5 2.4 4.1 4.1 4.2 4.4 1.0 1.6 2.7 4.0 3.0 4.1 1.6 4.0 4.0 2.0 3.4 1.1 -0.7 1.1 3.4 1.6 3.3 1.4 3.3 1.2 3.2 1.5 0.4 3.2 1.4 1.1 1.4 3.1 3.0 3.3 2.0 3.3 1.6 3.2 3.2 2.0 1.6 2.8 4.1 1.8 3.4 3.4 2.4 2.5 2.3 2.0 3.3 2.1 3.3 4.4 3.3 4.3 3.5 3.5 3.5 2.8 2.9 2.8 3.7 3.5 2.4 2.5 4.5 4.7 4.9 3.5 3.4 3.4 2.8 2.8 2.8 3.4 2.4 3.5 4.0 3.7 2.5 4.0 2.6 3.3 3.3 3.2 2.7 3.2 3.2 2.3 3.4 3.0 2.1 2.4 2.6 2.6 3.5 16 3.2 3.1 3.1 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.8 1.1 0.7 3.0 2.2 2.4 1.6 2.2 3.0 2.8 3.2 3.2 2.7 2.6 3.1 3.3 3.2 2.7 2.7 4.8 2.4 3.3 3.2 2.9 24 2.4 3.2 3.1 3.1 2.5 2.9 2.5 2.6 3.1 2.3 3.1 3.0 2.9 2.7 2.2 2.1 1.4 2.4 2.3 2.8 2.9 2.8 2.1 2.4 2.2 2.7 2.0 2.2 2.0 2.1 2.5 2.3 1.2 1.4 -0.3 -1.9 1.5 13 Persons 119.941 120,332 120,661 121,903 122,208 122,160 122,402 122,703 122,635 122,781 123,197 123,644 124,141 124,403 124,570 124,639 125,125 125,274 125,072 9-93 10-93 11-93 12-93 1-94 2-94 3-94 4-94 5-94 6-94 7-94 8-94 9-94 10-94 11-94 12-94 1-95 2-95 3-95 Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis June 1,1995 12 Payroll Employment Seasonally Adjusted Millions of Persons Millions of Persons Shaded area represents a period of business recession. Percentages are annual rates of change for periods indicated. Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Payroll Employment (Compound Annual Rates of Change) Terminal Month Thousands of Initial Month Persons 9-93 10-93 11-93 12-93 1-94 2-94 3-94 4-94 5-94 6-94 7-94 8-94 9-94 10-94 11-94 12-94 1-95 2-95 3-95 10-93 11-93 12-93 1-94 2-94 3-94 4-94 5-94 6-94 7-94 8-94 9-94 10-94 11-94 12-94 1-95 2-95 3-95 4-95 111,112 2.1 2.4 2.5 2.1 2.2 2.8 2.7 2.2 2.2 2.6 2.7 1.9 2.0 1.1 3.1 3.0 2.9 3.0 2.9 2.9 2.9 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 2.9 3.1 3.1 3.0 3.0 3.0 2.5 2.9 2.9 3.0 3.1 3.1 3.0 2.9 3.2 3.1 3.0 3.1 3.0 1.7 2.5 3.0 2.9 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.0 3.2 3,1 3.0 3.1 3.0 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.5 2.8 2.8 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.8 111,366 111,610 111,711 111,919 112,298 112,699 2.3 3.2 3.6 3.4 3.5 3.5 3.4 3.3 3.2 3.4 3.3 3.2 3,2 3.1 2.9 4.1 4.3 3.7 3.8 3.7 3.6 3.5 3.3 3.5 3.4 3.3 3.3 3.2 3.0 4.4 3.5 3.7 3.6 3.5 3.4 3.1 3.5 3.4 3.2 3.2 3.1 2.9 2.7 3.4 3.3 3.3 3.2 2.9 3.3 3.2 3.1 3.1 3.0 4.1 3.6 3.5 3.3 3.0 3.4 3.3 3.1 3.2 30 3.1 3.1 3.0 2.7 3.3 3.2 3.0 3.1 2.9 2.8 2.8 2.6 3.1 3.0 2.6 3.4 3.2 2.9 3.1 2.9 2,6 2.9 2.3 3.4 3.2 2.9 3.0 2.9 2.5 1.7 3.7 3.3 2.9 3,1 2.9 2.4 5.8 4.1 3.3 3.4 3.1 2.6 2.4 21 2.7 2.5 1.9 18 2.8 2.5 1.8 3.8 2.8 1.8 112,951 113,334 113,624 113,914 114,186 114,348 114,882 115,113 115,282 115,637 115,814 1.9 115,805 0.9 -0.1 9-93 10-93 11-93 12-93 1-94 2-94 3-94 4-94 5-94 6-94 7-94 8-94 9-94 10-94 11-94 12-94 1-95 2-95 3-95 Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis June 1,1995 13 Real Personal Income Seasonally Adjusted Trillions of Dollars 1989 1990 1991 1992 Trillions of Dollars 1993 1994 1995 Real incomes are computed using the personal consumption expenditure deflator (1987=100). Shaded area represents a period of business recession. Percentages are annual rates of change for periods indicated. Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Real Disposable Personal Income (Compound Annual Rates of Change) Terminal Month 10-93 11-93 12-93 1-94 2-94 3-94 4-94 5-94 6-94 7-94 8-94 9-94 10-94 11-94 12-94 1-95 2-95 3-95 4-95 Billions of Dollars Initial Month 9-93 10-93 11-93 12-93 4.1 4.4 4.6 5.4 6.0 7.5 1.1 -0.6 -8.1 1.8 5.3 4.2 4.9 5.1 4.6 4.7 4.7 3.8 3.4 3.2 3.0 1.9 4.2 4.3 4.2 3.6 3.7 3.6 3.5 2.8 3.5 3.4 3.3 2.7 3.5 3.5 3.4 2.9 3.7 3.7 3.6 3.2 4.7 4.7 4.7 4.5 4.2 4.2 4.1 3.8 4.4 4.5 4.5 4,2 4.4 4.5 4.5 4.2 4.4 4.4 4.4 4.2 4.4 4.5 4.4 4.2 3.5 3.5 3.4, 9-93 10-93 11-93 12-93 3.730.9 3,745.0 3.767.6 3,741.1 18.1 10.4 5.4 6.7 5.2 4.6 4.5 4.7 6.0 5.1 5.4 5.3 5.2 5.2 3.1 -0,4 -3.8 3.2 3 2 10.6 2.2 1.9 4.8 -0.6 1.8 3.8 0.5 2.1 1.6 1.7 2.9 4.2 2.4 2.3 3.9 2.9 2.9 4.3 2.7 3.9 5.1 5.9 4.5 4.7 6.2 5.4 6.9 8.7 11.1 16.5 3.8 3.8 5.0 4.1 5.0 5.9 6.5 6.8 -2.2 5.4 4.7 5.6 6.4 6.9 7,3 3.0 8.4 4,2 4.3 4.2 4.3 5.3 4.6 5.4 6.1 6.4 6.6 3.5 6.4 4.5 5.1 4.5 5.2 5.7 6.0 6.0 3.5 5.5 4.1 3,7 4,2 4.3 5.1 4.6 5.2 5.7 5.9 5.8 3.8 5.4 4.4 4.4 4.3 4.4 5.1 1.7 3.0 3.0 3-6 3.0 3.3 y„M -3.8-11.9 3,4 M i.q 1-94 2-94 3-94 4-94 5-94 6-94 7-94 8-94 9-94 10-94 11-94 12-94 1-95 2-95 3-95 Dollars are measured using 1987 prices. Annual Rates 1-94 2-94 3-94 4-94 5-94 6-94 7-94 8-94 9-94 10-94 11-94 12-94 1-95 2-95 3-95 Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis June 1,1995 14 3.793.3 3,803.1 3.790.9 3,822.9 3.820.9 3,826.0 3.839.2 3,857.6 3.907.0 3,899.9 3.926.1 3,940.4 3.952.3 3,968.8 3.927.0 Retail Sales Seasonally Adjusted Billions of Dollars 1989 Billions of Dollars 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 The CPI is used to deflate retail sales data (1982—84—100). Shaded area represents a period of business recession. Percentages are annual rates of change for periods indicated. Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Real Retail Sales (Compound Annual Rates of Change) Terminal Month ________ 10-93 11-93 12-93 1-94 2-94 3-94 4-94 5-94 6-94 7-94 8-94 9-94 10-94 11-94 12-94 1-95 2-95 3-95 4-95 Initial Month 9-93 10-93 11-93 12-93 1-94 2-94 3-94 4-94 5-94 6-94 7-94 8-94 9-94 10-94 15.1 6.7 10.8 10.2 7.9 9.1 4.0 0.6 -2.3 -12.6 3.8 23.2 5.8 5.5 7.6 8.6 7.5 7.0 18.3 13.6 7.3 5.2 3.9 10.0 6.6 4.9 4.0 -4.9 1.1 -4.7 -4.5 3.7 2.1 6.2 5.1 3.3 3.4 3.2 -0.0 2.5 10.0 5.6 4.2 6.9 4.5 2.4 5.2 1.9 -0.8 0.6 3.2 -3.2 4.7 3.3 3.6 3.8 1.9 3.7 3.8 6.3 6.6 4.9 13.6 5.5 4.6 4.4 4.2 4.1 6.4 2.7 4.3 6.7 4.6 5.6 4.8 5.6 10.3 7.0 4.1 5.0 7.1 5,3 5.7 5.4 7.9 7.4 11.2 6.2 5.5 9.9 12.9 4.7 5.2 5.2 5.1 6.6 5.0 3.9 7.0 5.9 6.4 2.4 8.9 7.4 7.5 4.6 4.4 3.4 4.5 5.4 4.8 6.0 5.8 4.3 5.1 5.3 4.7 0.8 6.9 4.4 4.1 4.1 3.2 4.2 5.2 5.6 4.6 5.3 4.6 6.0 4.5 1.1 3.9 4.2 2.7 1.8 2.5 3.3 4.1 3.5 2.9 3.3 2.5 1.7 0.7 -2.2 3.3 3.2 3.5 4.4 3.1 3.7 2.2 2.9 4.3 37 3.0 3.8 2.4 1.7 -0.4 3.4 2.7 2.3 2.1 2.9 3.6 13 1.8 2.4 1.7 2.3 0.9 0.1 -1.9 9-93 10-93 11-93 12-93 1-94 2-94 3-94 4-94 5-94 6-94 7-94 8-94 9-94 10-94 Dollars are measured using the CPI (1982-84= 100). Billions of Dollars 11-94 12-94 1-95 2-95 3-95_________________ -0.7 0.5 -3.6 -1.1 -2.7 1.7 -5.1 -11.4 -1.2 -2.6 -3.2 -4.8 7.0 -1.3 -9.0 121.377 122.030 122.921 121.553 123.681 125.005 124.486 124.012 124.999 124.663 125.997 126.712 128.003 128.251 128.176 128.353 127.065 127.781 126.778 11-94 12-94 1-95 2-95 3-95 Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis June 1 ,1 9 9 5 15 Total Business Inventory/Sales Ratio Seasonally Adjusted Ratio Ratio Shaded area represents a period of business recession. Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Inventories and Sales (Billions of Dollars) Manufacturing Period 1992 1993 1994 Retail Trade Total Business(3) Inventories 838.90 860.98 916.55 Shipments (1) 2931.95 3100.14 3364.60 Inventories (2) 379.24 377.43 391.81 Sales (1) 1944.61 2072.61 2233.35 Inventories (2) 251.99 267.68 290.02 Sales (1) 6720.25 7113.59 7670.53 1994 May June July August September October November December 276.23 278.57 275.49 288.08 286.13 283.98 291.19 296.05 382.38 383.11 386.65 387.01 386.53 388.06 389.99 391.81 183.04 185.12 185.13 187.86 189.31 191.49 192.12 192.39 275.17 278.95 276.49 283.52 287.25 288.67 289.99 290.02 628.71 634.57 631.79 652.89 651.40 653.12 661.90 671.28 880.51 884.89 889.41 897.79 902.12 908.57 913.83 916.55 1995 January February March April 297.79 298.56 298.85 N.A. 396.10 399.73 402.33 N.A. 193.30 191.87 193.33 192.58 294.30 296.00 297.18 N.A. 673.92 675.48 675.31 N.A 928.67 936.09 942.74 N.A. 15» 1. Annual data are sums of monthly shipments/sales. 2. Annual data are end-of-year stocks. 3. Total business is the sum of manufacturing, retail trade and merchant wholesalers. Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 16 Real Final Sales and Real GDP Percent Change From Previous Year Seasonally Adjusted Percent Percent 5 5 4 3 2 1 0 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 199 4 1995 Real final sales and real GDP are measured using 1987 prices. Shaded area represents a period of business recession. Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Real Final Sales (Compound Annual Rates of Change) Terminal Quarter 3*90 4-90 1-91 2-91 3-91 4-91 1-92 2-92 3*92 4-92 1-93 2-93 3-93 4-93 1-94 2-94 3-94 4-94 1-95 2-90 0.5 -0.0 -0.8 -0.2 -0.3 -0.3 0.4 0.6 0 .9 1.3 1.2 13 1.5 1.8 1.8 1.8 2.0 2.2 22 3-90 4-90 -0.6 -1.5 -0.4 *0 5 -0.5 0.4 0.6 0.9 1.4 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.9 1.9 1.9 2.1 2.3 2.3 -2.4 -0.3 -0.5 -0.4 0.6 0.8 1.1 1.7 1.5 1.6 1.7 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.2 2.4 2.5 2-90 3-90 4-90 1-91 2-91 1.8 0.5 0.2 1.4 1.4 1.7 2.3 2.0 2.1 2.2 2.6 2.5 2.4 2.6 2.8 2.8 3-91 4-91 Billions of Dollars Initial Quarter 1-92 2-92 3-92 4-92 1-93 2-93 3-93 4-93 4,895.6 4,888.0 4,858.4 4,879.8 -0.8 -0.5 1.2 1.3 1.7 2.4 2.1 2.1 2.2 2.6 2.6 2.5 2.6 2.9 2.8 4.869.5 -0.2 2.3 2.0 2.4 3.0 2.5 2.5 2.6 3.0 2.9 2.8 2.9 3.1 3 1 4.8 3.1 3.2 3.8 3.1 3.0 3.0 3.4 3.3 3.1 3.2 3.4 3.4 1-91 2-91 3-91 4-91 1.5 2.5 3.5 2.7 2.6 2.7 3.2 3.1 2.9 3.1 3.3 3.2 4,867.3 4,924.8 4,943.2 3.5 4.5 3.1 2.9 3.0 3.5 3.3 3.1 3.2 3.5 3.4 5.6 2.9 2.7 2.8 3.5 3.3 3.1 3.2 3.5 3.4 0.2 1.3 1.9 3.0 2.9 2.6 2.9 3.2 3.1 1-92 2-92 3-92 4-92 2.4 2.8 4.0 3.5 3.1 3.3 3.7 3.5 3.2 4.8 3.9 3.3 3.5 3.9 3.7 6.4 4.3 3.4 36 4.0 3.8 2.2 1.8 2.6 3.4 3.2 1-93 2-93 3-93 4-93 1.5 2.9 3.8 3.5 4.3 5.0 4.2 5.7 4,1 2.5 4,985.3 5,054.1 5,056.8 5,086.5 5,126.5 5,207.2 5,235.7 5,254.9 5,310.0 5,384.4 5.417.7 1-94 2-94 3-94 4-94 Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis June 1 ,1 9 9 5 Dollars are m easured using 1987 prices. First quarter data are preliminary estimates. Annual Rates 1-94 2-94 3-94 4-94 17 Components of Real GDP Growth Rate 1 -95 Real GDP 2.69 4-94 3-94 2-94 1 -94 4-93 3-93 2-93 5.07 4.04 4.09 3.35 6.26 2.69 2.39 Components (1) Final Sales 2.47 5.66 4.21 1.47 2.20 6.43 3.17 2.36 Change in Business Inventories 0.21 -0.57 -0.16 2.59 1.12 -0.17 -0.46 0.03 1.22 3.39 2.04 0.88 3.11 2.67 2.61 1.75 Personal Consumption Expenditures Fixed Investment 2.42 2.22 1.40 1.40 1.67 3.38 1.70 1.31 Nonresidential 2.53 2.12 1.67 1.09 1.26 2.30 1.33 1.64 -0.11 0.10 -0.27 0.30 0.41 1.05 0.37 -0.32 Residential Government Purchases Federal State and Local Net Exports Exports Imports -0.21 -0.73 1.13 -0.21 -0.89 -0.02 0.20 0.22 -0.26 -0.97 0.66 -0.53 -0.72 -0.35 -0.21 -0.26 0.05 0.25 0.46 0.31 -0.16 0.33 0.41 0.48 -0.95 0.74 -0.39 -0.59 -1.66 0.32 -1.33 -0.92 0.32 2.36 1.71 1.86 -0.43 2.35 -0.38 0.87 -1.26 -1.59 -2.08 -2.41 -1.24 -1.99 -0.94 -1.78 (1) Contribution of each component to the compound annual rate of real GDP growth in each quarter indicated. Elements may not sum to the total due to rounding. Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Real Personal Consumption Expenditures (Compound Annual Rates of Change) Terminal Quarter 2-90 3-90 4-90 1-91 2-91 3-91 4-91 Billions of Dollars Initial Quarter 1-92 2-92 3-92 4-92 1-93 2-93 3-93 4-93 2-90 3-90 4-90 1-91 2-91 1-92 2-92 3-92 4-92 3-91 4-91 Dollars are measured using 1987 prices. First quarter data are preliminary estimates. 1-93 2-93 3-93 4-93 Annual Rates 1-94 2-94 3-94 4-94 1-94 2-94 3-94 4-94 Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis June 1,1995 18 Real Residential Fixed Investment (Compound Annual Rates of Change) Terminal Quarter 3-90 4-90 1-91 2-91 3-91 4-91 1-92 2-92 3-92 4-92 1-93 2-93 3-93 4-93 1-94 2-94 2-90 -22.1 -23.2 -23.7 -17.9 -12.1 -8.0 -4.2 -1.2 -1.0 1.3 1.6 0.8 1.5 3.2 3.6 3.8 3-90 4-90 1-95 Billions of Dollars Annual Rates 1-93 2-93 3-93 4-93 1-94 2-94 3-94 4-94 189.0 -24.3 -24.5 -16.5 -9.4 -4.9 -0.8 2.2 2.1 4.3 4.4 3.2 3.7 5.4 5.8 5.8 5.1 3.2 3.2 4.9 2,9 4.5 2-90 3-90 3-94 4-94 1-91 2-91 3-91 4-91 Initial Quarter 1-92 2-92 3-92 4-92 176.3 *24.8 -12.3 -3.8 0.7 4.7 7.5 6.5 8.5 8.2 6.5 6.8 8.4 8,5 8.4 7.4 7.0 6,5 4-90 2.2 8.7 10.9 13.7 15.4 12.9 14.4 13.2 10.7 10.6 12.0 11.9 11.5 10.1 9.6 8.8 1-91 15.6 15.6 17.8 19.0 15.1 16.5 14.9 11.8 11.5 13.1 12.8 12.3 10.8 10.1 9.2 2-91 15.6 18.9 22.4 20.2 22.6 22.7 15.0 14.8 11.2 0.8 16.7 17.0 15.3 11.7 14.7 14.6 12,7 9.5 5.0 11.2 10.5 8.3 5.9 11.0 10.4 8,5 12.8 12.5 11.1 9.3 12,5 12.2 11.0 9.4 12.0 11.6 10.5 9.1 10.4 9.9 8.7 7.3 9.7 6.8 9.3 8.1 8.8 8.3 7.2 5.9 3-91 4-91 1-92 2-92 164.2 165.1 171.2 177.5 186.7 196.5 23.8 14.2 5.3 6.4 -1.3 -7.6 7.2 2.1 0.6 11.1 8.1 9.0 9.3 10.9 8.5 10.3 8.2 8.8 8.1 6.1 6,2 7.5 5.6 5.6 6,4 4.6 4,6 3-92 4-92 1-93 9.4 18.4 15.5 13.3 9.2 8.0 6.4 2-93 28.2 18.7 10.0 14.7 8.5 9.1 3.4 7.7 3.1 5.9 2.0 3-93 4-93 7.0 0.3 0.9 0.0 1-94 -6.0 -2.0 2.3 *2.2 -0.2 *2.6 2-94 3-94 4-94 196.9 207.7 210.4 206.3 211.0 224.5 229.9 233.8 230.2 231.5 230.0 Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis June 1 ,1 9 9 5 Dollars are measured using 1987 prices. First quarter data are preliminary estimates. Real Nonresidential Fixed Investment (Compound Annual Rates of Change) Terminal Quarter 4 b 3-90 4-90 1-91 2-91 3-91 4-91 1-92 2-92 3-92 4-92 1-93 2-93 3-93 4-93 1-94 2-94 3*94 4-94 1-95 2-90 5.0 -1.6 -5.4 -4.8 -4.4 -4.7 -1.8 -1.1 -0.3 1.0 2.2 2.9 4.1 4.6 4.8 5.4 6.0 6.7 2-90 3-90 4-90 -7.7 -10.2 -7.9 -6.7 -6.5 -5.4 -2.8 -1.8 -0.8 0.7 1.9 2.7 4.1 4,5 4.8 5.4 6.1 6,8 3-90 -12.7 -7.9 -6.3 -6.2 -5.0 -1.9 -1.0 0.1 1.6 3.0 3.8 5.1 5.5 5.8 6.3 7.0 7.8 4-90 Dollars are measured using 1987 1-91 2-91 3-91 4-91 -3.0 -3.0 -3.9 -2.9 0.4 1.1 2.0 3.6 4.9 5.6 6.9 7.2 7.4 7.8 8.5 9.2 1-91 -3.0 -4.4 -2.9 1.3 2.0 2.9 4.6 5.9 6.6 7.9 8.2 8.3 8.7 9.3 10,1 2-91 -5.7 -2,9 2.7 3.3 4.1 5.9 7.2 7.8 9.2 9.4 9.4 9.7 10.3 11.0 3-91 Billions of Dollars Initial Quarter 1-92 2-92 3-92 4-92 1-93 2-93 3-93 4-93 551.2 540.2 522.2 518.3 514.4 506.9 -0.1 7.2 6.4 67 8.3 9.5 9.9 11.2 11.2 11.0 11.3 11.8 12,5 4-91 506.8 15.0 9.9 9.1 10.6 11.6 11.7 13.0 12.7 12.3 12.5 12.9 13.6 1-92 5.0 6.2 9.1 10.7 11.0 12.6 12.4 12.0 12.2 12.7 13,4 2-92 7.5 11.3 12.7 12.6 14.2 13.7 13.0 13.1 13.6 14.3 3-92 15.1 15.4 14.3 16.0 14,9 13.9 14.0 14.4 15,1 4-92 15.6 13.9 16.2 14.9 13.7 13.8 14.3 15.1 1-93 12.2 16.5 14.6 13.2 13.4 14.1 15.0 2-93 21.1 15.9 13.6 13.7 14.5 15.5 3-93 10.9 10.0 9.2 11.4 11.6 12.9 13.6 14.4 15.3 4-93 1-94 14.1 15.9 17.6 17.5 19,2 20.7 2-94 3-94 4-94 524.8 531.2 540.9 560.3 581.0 597.9 627.2 643.6 657.9 680.0 708.2 742.3 Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis prices. First quarter data are preliminary estimates. Annual Rates 1-94 2-94 3-94 4-94 June 1,1995 19 Real Government Purchases of Goods and Services (Compound Annual Rates of Change) Terminal Quarter 3-90 4-90 1-91 2-91 3-91 4-91 1-92 2-92 3-92 4-92 1-93 2-93 3-93 4-93 1-94 2-94 4-94 1-95 2-90 3-90 4-90 -0.6 2.6 5.8 2.7 3.0 4.4 2.1 3.1 1.7 0.9 1 3 -0.2 0.3 0.4 -0.8 0.4 0.6 -0.4 0.0 0.1 -0.8 0.4 0.5 -0.2 0.4 0.5 -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 -0.8 -0.0 0.0 -0.6 0.0 0.1 -0.4 0.0 0.1 -0.4 -0.3 -0.3 -0.7 -0.4 -0.3 -0.8 0.5 -1.7 -2.1 -1 *2 -1 6 -0.8 -0.5 -1.2 -1.0 -0.7 -0.7 -1.1 -1.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.5 -0.3 -0.2 -0.6 2-90 3-90 4-90 -0.8 -0.9 -0.8 -0.9 1-91 2-91 1-91 2-91 -3.9 -3.4 -1.8 -2.1 -1.0 -0.7 -1.5 -1.1 -0.9 -0.8 -1.2 -1.2 3-91 4-91 -2.9 -0.7 1.5 -1.5 -0.8 -0.3 0.6 0.7 -0.1 -1.1 -0.7 -0.7 -0.4 -0.5 -0.2 -0.5 -0.2 -0.9 -0.7 -0.9 -0.7 -0 3 -0.6 -0.4 -0.7 -0.5 3-91 4-91 Billions of Dollars Initial Quarter 1-92 2-92 3-92 4-92 1-93 2-93 3-93 4-93 -3.0 0.1 0.4 -1.2 -0.7 -0.4 -0.4 -1.0 -1.0 3.4 2.1 -0.6 -0.2 0.1 0.1 -0.7 -0.7 0.9 -2.5 -1.3 -0.7 -0.6 -1.3 -1.3 -5 9 -2.4 -1.2 -1.0 -1.8 -1.7 -0.6 -0.4 -0.8 -1.0 -0.7 -0.4 -0.8 -1.0 1-92 2-92 3-92 4-92 1.2 1.1 0.7 -0.7 -0.8 11 0.5 -1.3 -1.3 -0.1 -2.5 -2.1 -4.9 -3.1 -0.3 -0.5 -0.8 -1.0 -0.4 -0.6 -Q.9 -1.0 1-93 2-93 3-93 4-93 Dollars are measured using 1987 prices. First quarter data are preliminary estimates. Annual Rates 1-94 2-94 3-94 4-94 929.2 942.4 949.5 950.6 941.3 934.4 937.8 930.7 938.5 940.6 926.5 929.3 931.8 931.5 919.9 917.1 -12 0.3 1.1 -4.1 -0.1 0.3 -2.7 -1,2 1-94 2-94 3-94 4-94 922.2 919.4 Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis June 1 ,1 9 9 5 Real Federal Purchases of Goods and Services (Compound Annual Rates of Change) Terminal Quarter 2-90 3-90 4-90 7.5 8.4 9.3 5.1 4.0 1.1 -1.0 -1.2 -3.2 -1.2 -2.8 -1.7 -3.2 -0.5 -1.6 -0.3 -1.2 -1.9 -2.9 -2.1 -3.0 -2.2 -3.0 -2.4 -3.2 -3.0 -3.3 -4.0 -2.6 -2.5 -3.1 -3.3 -3.2 -3.8 -3.4 -3.3 -3.9 2-90 3-90 4-90 co \ 3-94 4-94 1-95 -5.2 0.9 3.7 2.4 -0.2 -1.8 -1.8 -2.2 -1.0 -0.8 -2.2 -2.3 -2.4 -2.6 -3.1 -3.4 : 3-90 4-90 1-91 2-91 3-91 4-91 1-92 2-92 3-92 4-92 1-93 2-93 3-93 4-93 1-94 2-94 1-91 2-91 3-91 4-91 Billions of Dollars Initial Quarter 1-92 2-92 3-92 4-92 1-93 2-93 3-93 4-93 379.6 386.5 395.2 -1.1 -5.8 -10.2 -7.1 -9.9 -5.6 -7.1 -5.5 -6.5 -3.3 -3.7 -2.7 -2.9 -4.3 -4.8 -4.3 -4.7 -4.1 -4.5 -4.2 -4.5 -4.7 -5.1 -5.0 -5.3 -3.9 -4.1 -4.7 -4.9 -4.6 -4.9 1-91 2-91 -9.5 -5.5 -1.3 -5.3 -3.1 -2.0 0.7 0.8 -1.4 -3.9 -2.7 -3.8 -2.8 -3.7 -2.9 -3.9 -3.1 -4.5 -3.9 -4.8 -4.4 -3.6 -3.1 -4.5 -4.1 -4.5 -4.1 3-91 4-91 394.1 383.6 374.1 372.9 -4.8 1.7 1.5 -3.0 -3.1 -3.1 -3.4 8.6 4.8 -2.4 -2.7 -2.8 -3.1 -4.3 -4.2 -4.7 -4.7 -3.2 -3.1 -4.3 -4.3 -4.3 -4.2 1-92 2-92 368.3 376.0 1.1 -7.5 -15.4 -6.2 -9.7 -3.6 -5.4 -7.5 -3.3 -5.3 -6.9 -3.9 -6.2 -7.6 -5.5 -6.4 -7.6 -6.0 -4.4 -5.2 -3.4 -5.6 -6.4 -5.0 -5.4 -6.1 -4.9 3-92 4-92 1-93 Dollars are measured using 1 987 prices. -3.0 -4.0 -5.0 -6.1 -7.7 -10.3 -6.6 -7.8 -9.1 -7.9 1.1 -3.3 -3.4 -2.9 -5.3 -5.7 -5.9 -4.4 -5.1 -5,5 -5.6 -4.3 2-93 3-93 4-93 1-94 10.9 -2.6 -14.4 -3.1 -9.4 -4.2 2-94 3-94 4-94 377.0 361.6 358.3 355.6 351.1 341.7 334.7 343.5 330.4 326.9 Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis First quarter data are preliminary estimates. Annual Rates 1-94 2-94 3-94 4-94 June 1,1995 20 Real Exports (Compound Annual Rates of Change) Terminal Quarter Billions of Dollars Annual Rates Initial Quarter 1-92 2-92 3-92 4-92 1-93 2-93 3-93 4-93 1-94 2-94 3-94 4-94 2-90 3-90 4-90 1-91 2-91 3-91 4-91 -1.9 508.6 3.7 9.6 2.1 4.1 -1.1 6.4 9.4 9.3 20.7 5.2 7.1 0.6 6.3 10,2 6.6 8.4 8.1 11.4 7.0 13.7 6.5 8.0 6.1 7.7 10.0 9.8 6.7 7.1 3.8 1.5 5.9 6.6 7.0 8.3 5.3 5.8 4.3 3.4 6.8 6.4 6.6 5.3 7.8 5.3 4.6 6.0 7.7 6.7 5.0 6.2 72 6.9 6.5 5.6 4.7 5.4 3.8 3.2 3.8 3.0 -1.0 5.3 6.1 5.7 6.5 4 1 4.7 5.5 6.2 6.7 5.0 5.7 4.4 3.2 7.7 5.9 4.6 5.4 2.8 4.8 5.0 5.6 4.1 4.5 3.3 3.1 2.5 1.0 2.1 *3,2 5.9 6.6 6.3 7.0 5.7 6.3 5.4 5.3 6.0 8.2 8.5 21.7 6.1 5.8 4.4 5.2 5.3 5.8 5.5 6.1 4.8 5.3 4.2 4.6 4.4 3.9 4.3 8.3 *3.5 6.5 6.3 7.4 5.9 6.9 5.8 6.3 5.5 5.5 6.0 6.1 5.9 7.3 11.0 6.1 16.6 7.1 6.4 6.4 7.0 6.8 6.4 7.0 6.4 6.9 7.2 8.6 8.7 12.0 8.9 15.7 14.8 7.4 7.7 7.2 8.2 7.6 8.2 7.4 7.4 7.6 8.5 8.7 10.2 10.6 13.6 11.6 17.2 17.5 20.2 7.9 7.4 2.5 7.3 7.7 7.9 9.4 11.6 9.7 13 3 12.3 11.0 6.9 7.0 7.5 7.1 7.1 8.0 9.2 7.9 2-90 3-90 4-90 1-91 2-91 3-91 4-91 1-92 2-92 3-92 4-92 1-93 2-93 3-93 4-93 1-94 2-94 3-94 4-94 3-90 4-90 1-91 2-91 3-91 4-91 1-92 2-92 3-92 4-92 1-93 2-93 3-93 4-93 1-94 2-94 3-94 4-94 1-95 520.4 519.0 544.0 544.8 562.6 571.0 573.1 580.5 590.7 589.2 600.2 595.3 625.2 619.6 643.9 666.5 697.9 702.2 Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis June 1, 1995 Dollars are measured using 1987 prices. First quarter data are preliminary estimates. Real Imports (Compound Annual Rates of Change) Terminal Quarter 2-90 3-90 4-90 1-91 2-91 3-91 4-91 Initial Quarter 1-92 2-92 3-92 4-92 1-93 2-93 3-93 4-93 2-90 3-90 4-90 1-91 2-91 3-91 4-91 1-92 2-92 3-92 4-92 1-93 2-93 3-93 4-93 1-94 2-94 3-94 4-94 1-94 2-94 3-94 4-94 Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis June 1,1995 Dollars are measured using 1987 prices. First quarter data are preliminary estimates. Billions of Dollars Annual Rates 21 Trade and Current Account Balances Current Prices Billions of Dollars 1989 Billions of Dollars 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 The goods and services trade balance and the current account are for the current plus 3 previous quarters until 1993. Since 1993, the goods and services trade balance uses the current plus previous 11 months. Shaded area represents a period of business recession. Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis U.S. International Transactions (Millions of Dollars, Seasonally Adjusted) 4 - 94 3-94 2-94 1 -94 4-93 3-93 2-93 1 -93 Exports Goods and Services Income Receipts on U.S. Assets Abroad 185,549 177,302 170,431 37,483 35,626 31,868 164,737 166,279 158,052 29,879 28,816 28,513 160,105 157,241 28,801 27,727 Imports Goods and Services Income Payments on Foreign Assets in the U.S. -212,224 -206,040 -197,068 -189,057 -186,255 -180,310 -179,175 -171,663 -44,987 -39,663 -34,687 -30,699 -29,406 -26,498 -28,133 -25,872 Balance on Current Account -44,758 -40,848 -37,827 -32,238 -30,587 -27,856 -25,602 -19,850 Change in U.S. Assets Abroad -44,136 -25,849 -7,251 -48,456 -63,622 -35,651 -35,966 -12,659 U.S. Official Reserve Assets U.S. Private Assets Change in Foreign Assets in the U.S. 2,033 -165 3,537 -59 -673 -545 822 -983 -45,208 -25,414 -11,250 -48,887 -62,628 -34,915 -36,507 -12,164 89,921 80,254 49,309 95,130 90,162 71,934 51,829 16,772 Foreign Official Assets -1,003 19,460 8,925 11,530 23,962 19,259 17,492 10,968 Other Foreign Assets 90,924 60,794 40,384 83,600 66,200 52,675 34,337 5,804 Note: Negative values indicate dollar outflows from the United States. Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 22 Gross Saving as a Percent of GDP Seasonally Adjusted Percent Percent Total saving equals private saving (personal saving plus business saving) plus government surplus or deficit. Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Gross Saving and Investment (Billions of Dollars and Percent of GDP) Gross Saving Gross Private Saving Gross Private Domestic Investment U.S. Net Foreign Investment Period $ Billion % of GDP $ Billion % Of GDP $ Billion % of GDP $ Billion % Of GDP 1990:1 735.5 765.9 705.5 683.8 13.5 13.8 12.6 12.2 867.4 888.5 825.5 863.1 15.9 16.0 14.8 15.4 828.9 837.8 812.5 756.4 15.2 15.1 14.6 13.5 -80.3 -73.8 -92.1 -67.7 -1.5 -1.3 -1.6 -1.2 4 798.8 744.5 722.1 740.1 14.2 13.0 12.5 12.8 933.2 937.3 917.9 960.7 16.6 16.4 15.9 16.6 732.8 733.1 756.5 756.8 13.0 12.8 13.1 13.1 55.8 17.6 -22.2 -18.8 1.0 0.3 -0.4 -0.3 1992:1 2 3 4 719.1 722.3 731.9 718.5 12.2 12.1 12.1 11.6 979.1 981.2 1005.3 957.5 16.6 16.4 16.6 15.5 747.7 787.9 795.5 822.0 12.7 13.2 13.2 13.3 -26.6 -54.1 -59.9 -85.6 -0.5 -0.9 -1.0 -1.4 1993:1 2 3 4 760.1 775.0 788.9 825.8 12.2 12.3 12.4 12.7 1022.0 986.6 989.9 1011.4 16.4 15.7 15.6 15.6 853.8 869.7 882.2 922.5 13.7 13.8 13.9 14.2 -68.3 -88.9 -98.8 -113.2 -1.1 -1.4 -1.6 -1.7 1994: 1 2 3 4 886.2 923.3 922.6 950.3 13.5 13.8 13.6 13.8 1037.3 1041.4 1052.7 1082.7 15.8 15.6 15.5 15.7 966.6 1034.4 1055.1 1075.6 14.7 15.5 15.5 15.6 -116.4 -135.1 -153.6 -167.7 -1.8 -2.0 -2.3 -2.4 1995:1 1006.9 14.4 1127.5 16.2 1110.1 15.9 -163.6 -2.3 2 3 4 1991:1 2 3 Note: Gross Saving equals Gross Private Domestic Investment plus U.S. Net Foreign Investment minus a statistical discrepancy. U.S. Net Foreign Investment is the excess of U.S. investment abroad over foreign investment in the U.S.. Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 23 Corporate Profits After-Tax (Compound Annual Rates of Change) Terminal Quarter 3-90 4-90 1-91 2-91 3-91 4-91 1-92 2-92 3-92 4-92 1-93 2-93 3-93 4-93 1-94 2-94 3-94 4-94 1-95 2-90 -54.1 -29.8 -5.6 -3.0 -4,1 -2.0 0,6 -0.5 -5.3 2.1 1.8 3.8 5,8 7.1 5.0 6.4 6.2 5.6 5.6 3-90 4-90 7.4 35.4 24.6 15.2 14.1 14.7 11.1 3.7 11.6 10.2 11.8 13.4 14.3 11.4 12.5 119 10.9 10.6 70.7 34.1 18.0 15.9 16.2 11.7 3.2 12.1 10.5 12.2 14.0 14.9 11.8 12.9 12.2 11.2 10.8 2-90 3-90 4-90 1-91 2-91 3-91 4-91 ü 11 5.4 -1.9 1.8 5.5 2.6 -5.1 5.6 4.7 7.1 9.5 10.8 7.9 9.3 8.9 8.0 7.8 -8.7 0.1 5.6 2.0 -7.1 5.6 4.6 7.3 9.9 11.4 8.1 9.7 9.1 8.2 8.0 1-91 2-91 9.7 13.6 5.8 -6.7 8.7 7.0 9.9 12.5 13.9 10.0 11.5 10.8 9.6 9.3 3-91 Initial Quarter 1-92 2-92 3-92 4-92 * i Billions of Dollars Annual Rates 1-93 2-93 3-93 4-93 1-94 2-94 3-94 4-94 . 221.8 225.8 258.1 261.5 255.6 261.6 272.4 266.6 238.6 283.8 282.8 301.3 323.6 342.4 324.1 344.8 347.4 344.7 348.6 . * " 17.6 3.9 -8.2 -11.5 -23.3 -35.8 5.6 13.3 100.2 8.5 6.4 3.8 8.2 40.5 8.4 13.0 36.5 9.9 12.9 12.2 16.8 35.6 14.4 14.0 18.2 33.5 10.0 9.1 11.8 22.7 11.7 11.0 13.7 23.4 10.9 10.2 12.5 20.7 9.6 8.9 10.8 17.8 9.2 8.6 10.2 16.4 4-91 1-92 2-92 3-92 -1.4 12.7 19.1 20.6 11.2 13.9 12.2 10.2 9.6 4-92 28.8 30.9 29.0 14.6 17.2 14.7 12.0 11.0 1-93 Corporate Profits After-Tax with Capital Consumption and Inventory Valuation Adjustments. First quarter data are preliminary estimates. 33.1 29.1 25.3 10.2 0.3 -19.7 14.4 1.4 28.1 8.8 7.4 12.1 2.0 14.9 3.1 9.4 5.2 0.7 8.6 -0.1 -3.1 8.7 5.1 1.4 7.6 1.5 0,7 4.6 2-93 3-93 4-93 1-94 2-94 3-94 4-94 Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis June 1 ,1 9 9 5 Corporate Profits and Net Cash Flow (Billions of Dollars) Period Corporate Profits(1) After-Tax Profits(1) Capital Dividends Consumption Inventory Capital Valuation Consumption Adjustment Adjustment Net Cash Flow 382.6 409.3 367.5 362.8 250.6 269.5 221.8 225.8 149.9 154.6 155.7 153.7 360.4 365.0 371.3 376.2 -2.0 8.9 -31.5 -19.5 35.8 31.4 22.8 13.5 463.1 471.0 468.9 467.9 4 385.4 391.5 389.6 394.7 258.1 261.5 255.6 261.6 158.0 159.4 161.6 160.9 380.7 382.4 384.1 386.1 10.4 12.1 1.4 -0.8 13.7 18.9 22.5 22.4 470.5 472.4 476.7 487.6 1992: 1 2 3 4 412.1 412.6 363.2 432.5 272.4 266.6 238.6 283.8 161.0 166.8 174.4 182.1 388.6 391.3 410.4 396.8 -4.0 -16.6 -7.3 2.1 19.0 15.8 10.9 16.9 504.0 507.9 481.8 496.5 1993: 1 2 3 4 442.5 473.1 493.5 533.9 282.8 301.3 323.6 342.4 188.2 190.7 193.2 194.6 402.3 404.8 413.3 411.1 -11.2 -10.0 3.0 -6.5 21.0 26.5 31.7 38.8 508.0 525.4 540.6 565.5 1994: 1 2 3 4 508.2 546.4 556.0 560.3 324.1 344.8 347.4 344.7 196.3 202.5 207.9 213.9 432.2 425.9 432.6 438.0 -12.3 -14.1 -19.6 -32.1 37.0 37.4 37.5 38.8 572.2 582.3 591.7 600.9 1995: 1 568.8 348.6 217.1 445.5 -38.7 38.0 615.6 1990: 1 2 3 4 1991: 1 2 3 (1) Profits data includes the Inventory Valuation Adjustment and Capital Consumption Adjustment. The latter is the excess of depreciation allowances over Capital Consumption. Net Cash Flow equals After-Tax Corporate Profits less Dividends, less the Inventory Valuation Adjustment, plus Capital Consumption. Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St.Louis 24 Government D eficit(-)/S u rp lu s(+) Seasonally Adjusted Billions of Dollars Billions of Dollars 0 -5 0 -1 0 0 -1 5 0 -2 0 0 -2 5 0 -300 -3 5 0 1989 1990 1992 1991 1993 199 4 1995 National income accounts basis Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Federal Government Debt (BILLIONS OF DOLLARS) Seasonally Adjusted End of Month Totals Period March June September December March June September December March June September December March June September December March June September December Federal Debt held Federal Debt held by Private by Federal Investors Reserve Banks Gross Federal Debt Federal Debt held by Agencies and Trusts Net Federal Debt 3048.3 3146.3 3246.4 3353.0 734.2 766.9 799.0 820.6 2316.3 2380.4 2448.3 2427.5 223.9 231.1 235.5 251.3 2096.5 2153.8 2217.0 2286.0 420.5 426.0 443.9 456.6 3460.5 3541.4 3680.1 3787.6 880.5 886.3 923.9 958.5 2583.4 2656.6 2757.6 2822.2 253.0 255.0 268.0 272.1 2339.8 2411.3 2500.1 2560.4 463.8 472.7 480.7 488.8 3876.1 3988.9 4081.1 4160.9 978.8 998.6 1021.1 1036.4 2901.1 2992.5 3061.7 3116.5 274.0 277.0 300.1 291.7 2640.9 2727.5 2777.5 2836.6 508.4 529.1 538.4 546.4 4230.6 4356.4 4424.8 4513.1 1060.0 1089.9 1122.3 1139.8 3178.1 3268.6 3304.7 3368.7 313.0 330.0 329.7 330.6 2877.7 2950.2 2995.0 3041.6 562.5 568.3 595.5 619.5 4575.9 4650.5 4706.9 4776.3 1160.3 1192.2 1219.2 1242.1 3423.9 3460.2 3490.2 3529.0 351.4 359.1 359.5 359.4 3076.1 3100.6 3140.4 N.A. 631.5 633.1 658.5 N.A. Federal Debt held by Foreign Investors Columns may not add because each component is seasonally adjusted separately. Gross federal debt equals debt held by agencies and trusts plus net federal debt. Net federal debt equals debt held by Federal Reserve banks plus debt held by private investors (which includes debt held by foreign investors). Sources: Orginal data may be found in the TR EAS UR Y BULLETIN and also in the FEDERAL RESERVE BULLETIN; seasonally adjusted series prepared by this Bank. Data have been revised to reflect changed seasonal adjustment factors. Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 25 Government Budgets (Billions of Dollars; National Incom e Account Basis) Federal. State and Local Federal Period 1990: 1 2 3 4 1991: 1 2 3 4 1992: 1 2 3 4 1993: 1 2 3 4 1994: 1 2 3 4 1995: 1 Receipts 1091.3 1114.5 1123.7 1115.8 1120.1 1121.8 1132.5 1140.5 1155.7 1171.0 1166.5 1219.9 1212.7 1263.7 1272.7 1313.6 1337.4 1380.7 1388.8 1408.8 1437.1 1257.8 1266.5 1268.3 1306.9 1264.5 1329.4 1346.0 1386.3 1435.6 1455.8 1460.4 1492.0 1496.2 1500.6 1497.6 1533.7 1513.7 1525.9 1542.8 1569.9 1587.4 Surplus/ Deficit(-) -166.4 -152.0 -144.6 -191.0 -144.4 -207.6 -213.6 -245.8 -279.9 -284.8 -293.9 -272.1 -283.5 -237.0 -224.9 -220.1 -176.2 -145.1 -154.0 Surplus/ Receipts 1676.1 1705.0 1728.7 1726.5 1734.0 1744.7 1768.5 1788.7 1813.5 1836.9 1837.0 1908.8 1901.0 1965.1 1980.9 2035.4 2066.5 2121.9 2138.8 2171.1 2207.8 -161.1 -150.3 1808.0 1827.7 1848.6 1905.8 1868.4 1937.4 1964.2 2009.4 2073.5 2095.8 2110.5 2147.9 2162.9 2176.7 2181.9 2221.0 2217.6 2240.1 2268.9 2303.4 2328.4 Grants-in-Aid(l) 127.7 131.9 131.9 137.6 144.3 151.7 154.7 162.6 164.6 172.8 174.6 176.6 176.7 182.9 187.8 197.0 190.0 194.4 200.3 205.5 211.0 -131.9 -122.7 -119.9 -179.3 -134.4 -192.7 -195.8 -220.7 -260.0 -258.9 -273.5 -239.0 -261.9 -211.7 -201.0 -185.6 -151.0 -118.1 -130.1 -132.3 -120.6 (1) F ed eral G rants-in-A id to state and local governm ent are part of federal expenditures and state and local receipts, but are netted out in computing total governm ent m easures. Federal Budgets Fiscal Years Estimate Total Budget Receipts Outlays Surplus or Deficit(-) 1995 $1,354.3 1.521.4 -167.1 1594 1593 1592 1591 1990 $1,257.2 1.460.6 -203.4 $1,153.2 1.408.5 -255.3 $1,090.5 1.380.9 -290.4 $1,054.3 1.323.8 -269.5 $1,031.3 1.252^ -221.4 Calendar Years National Income Account Budget Receipts Expenditures Surplus or Deficit(-) Note: 1994 1993 1992 1991 1990 $1,379.0 $1,265.7 $1,178.3 $1,128.7 $1,111.4 1.538.1 -159.1 1.507.0 -241.4 1.460.9 -282.7 1,331,6 -202.9 1,274.9 -163.5 Fiscal years refer to the bud get ye a r w hich runs from October 1 through Septem ber 30. Total budget outlays include fed eral entities that are off-budget. Estim ates from O M B 's M id-S essio n R eview of the fiscal year 199 4 Budget (July 14, 1994). Totals m ay not add d u e to rounding. Source: O ffice of M an ag e m e n t and Budget and U .S . Departm ent of Com m erce. Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 26 Federal Government Receipts (Compound Annual Rates of Change) Terminal Quarter 3-90 4-90 1-91 2-91 3-91 4-91 1-92 2-92 3-92 4-92 1-93 2-93 3-93 4-93 1-94 2-94 3-94 4-94 1-95 2-90 3.3 0.2 0.7 0.7 1.3 1.5 2.1 2.5 2.0 3.7 3.1 4.3 4.2 4.8 5.0 5.5 5.3 5.3 5.5 3-90 4-90 -2.8 -0.6 -0.2 0.8 1.2 1.9 2.4 1.9 3.7 3.1 4.4 4.2 4.9 5.1 5.6 5.4 5.5 5.6 1.6 1.1 2,0 2.2 2.9 3.3 2.6 4.6 3.8 5.1 4.9 5.6 5.7 6.3 6.0 6.0 6.1 2-90 3-90 4-90 1-91 2-91 3-91 4-91 Initial Quarter 1-92 2-92 3-92 4-92 Billions of Dollars Annual Rates 1-93 2-93 3-93 4-93 1-94 2-94 3-94 4-94 1.123.7 1,115.8 1,120.1 0.6 2.2 2.4 3.2 3.6 2.7 5.0 4.1 5.5 5.2 6.0 6.1 6.6 6.3 6.3 6.4 1,121.8 3.9 3.4 4.0 4.4 3.2 5.7 4.6 6.1 5.8 6.5 6.6 7.2 6.8 6.7 6.8 1.132.5 2.9 4.1 4.6 3.0 6.1 4.7 6.5 6.0 6.8 6.9 7.5 7.0 6.9 7.0 1,140.5 5.4 5.4 3.1 7.0 5.0 7.1 6.5 7.3 7.3 7.9 7.4 7.3 7.4 1-91 2-91 3-91 4-91 1.155.7 5.4 1.9 7.5 4.9 7.4 6.6 7.6 7.6 8.2 7.6 7.5 7.5 1,171.0 -1.5 8.5 4*8 7.9 6.9 8.0 7.9 8.6 7.9 7.7 7.7 19.6 8,1 -2.3 11.3 7.3 9.1 5.8 10.0 7.7 9.5 7.6 10.1 8.6 9.1 7.7 8.7 7.5 8.7 7.6 1-92 2-92 3-92 4-92 1.166.5 1,219.9 1,212.7 1,263.7 1.272.7 1,313.6 1,337.4 1,380.7 1.388.8 1,408.8 1.437.1 - 17.9 10.1 11.2 10.3 10.9 9.5 8.9 89 2.9 8.1 7.9 9.3 7.8 7.5 7.6 13.5 10.4 11.5 9.1 8.5 8.4 7.4 10.5 7.7 7.2 7.5 1-93 2-93 3-93 4-93 First quarter data are preliminary estimates. 13.6 7.8 7.2 7.5 2.4 4.1 5.5 5.9 7.1 8.3 1-94 2-94 3-94 4-94 Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis June 1 ,1 9 9 5 Federal Government Expenditures (Compound Annual Rates of Change) Terminal Quarter 3-90 4-90 1-91 2-91 3-91 4-91 1-92 2-92 3-92 4-92 1-93 2-93 3-93 4-93 1-94 2-94 3-94 4-94 1-95 2-90 3-90 4-90 1-91 2-91 3-91 4-91 0.6 6.5 12.7 -0.2 *0.6 -12.4 6.5 3.5 22.2 5.0 5.0 6.1 4.0 13.3 5.1 6.2 7.4 6.1 13.0 8.7 12.5 7.4 8.6 7.8 13.5 10.8 13.8 15.0 7.2 8.2 7.5 11.9 9.5 11.0 10.3 7.2 6.6 10.1 7.8 8.5 6.5 7.3 7.6 6.8 7.5 6.8 9.9 8.0 8.6 6.3 7.3 6.8 6.2 8.8 7.0 6.2 5.4 6.2 6.4 5.7 7.9 5.8 6.3 4.5 5.7 7.0 5.4 5.5 5.3 5.1 5.2 7.3 5.9 6.0 5.6 6.0 5.5 4.0 4.6 6.2 4.8 4.8 4.9 5.2 4.7 4.7 3.9 4.8 5.1 4.5 6.0 4.7 4.7 4.0 4.8 5.0 4.5 5.8 4.2 4.9 4.7 5.9 4.9 4.8 5.1 4.9 4.7 4.8 4.3 5.1 5.9 4.8 2-90 3-90 4-90 1-91 2-91 3-91 4-91 Billions of Dollars Initial Quarter 1-92 2-92 3-92 4-92 1-93 2-93 3-93 4-93 1,268.3 1,306.9 1,264.5 1,329.4 1,346.0 1,386.3 1,435.6 5.7 3.5 5.3 4.2 3.6 2.9 3.8 2.7 2.7 2.9 3.3 3.4 1,3 5.0 3.7 3.1 2.3 3.5 2.3 2.4 2,6 3.1 3,2 1,455.8 1,460.4 8.9 5.0 3.7 2.5 4.0 2.4 2.5 2.8 3.3 3.4 1.1 1.2 0,5 2.8 1.2 1.5 1.9 2.6 2.8 1-92 2-92 3-92 4-92 1.2 0.2 3.4 1.2 1.6 2.1 2.8 3.0 -0.8 4.5 1.2 1.7 2,2 3.1 3.3 * 10.0 2.2 2.5 3.0 3.8 4.0 -5.1 -1.0 0.8 2.4 28 1-93 2-93 3-93 4-93 3.3 3.9 5.0 4.9 4.5 5.9 5.4 7.2 5,9 4.5 1,492.0 1»496.2 1,500.6 1,497.6 1,533.7 1,513.7 1,525.9 1,542.8 1,569.9 1.587.4 1-94 2-94 3-94 4-94 Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis June 1, 1995 First quarter data are preliminary estimates. Annual Rates 1-94 2-94 3-94 4-94 27 Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Post Office Box 442 St. Louis, Missouri 63166 Subscriber: Please include address label with subscription inquiries or address changes.