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JUNE 1995

National
Economic
Trends
The New Chain Gang
Following the 1995 benchmark revisions to the
national income and product accounts, the Bureau
o f Economic Analysis will replace the present fixedweighted indexes o f real GDP and prices with chaintype indexes. A fixed-weighted index is the ratio
between a weighted average o f prices or output in the
current period and a corresponding weighted average
for a fixed base period, using weights from the base
period to calculate both averages.
Fixed-weighted methods are simpler, but distort
current output or price changes when there are large
changes in the composition o f prices and output over
time. The chain-type index attempts to remedy this
problem by averaging the changes in two fixed-weighted
indexes, one based in the previous period and the other
based in the current period.
A simple example illustrates the advantage o f a
chain-type price index using two goods, apples and
oranges, over four time periods labeled April through
July. Four fixed-weighted indexes are shown, each using
a different base period. In May the price o f apples
rises compared to the price o f oranges, leading to
increased relative consumption o f oranges. Inflation
for May is best measured using a base period closer
to May, because the relative quantity weightings are
more current. With a July base period, the quantity
o f apples is much smaller, lowering their weight in
the index and thus greatly reducing the impact o f
the price increase on measured inflation for May.
Likewise, inflation for July is best measured using
a base period nearer July. With an April base period,
the quantity o f oranges in the weighting is much smaller,
greatly reducing the impact o f the price decrease for
oranges on measured inflation for July.
Inflation measured by the chain-type index is

approximately equal to the simple average of the two
fixed-weighted values, using the previous and current
periods as the base periods (shown in the shaded
areas). Thus, a chain-type price index is a compromise
that better reflects the current consumption mix.
By interchanging the roles o f prices and quantities
(using prices as the weights on quantities of the various
goods produced), a parallel example could be constructed
to show how a chain-type output index addresses the
measurement problem presented by a fixed-weighted
index o f real GDP.
— Stephen M. Stohs

Hypothetical Prices and Quantities of
Apples and Oranges
Price o f apples
Quantity o f apples
Price o f oranges
Quantity o f oranges

April

May

June

July

12
6

20
3

20
2

20
2

4
7

4
10

4
15

2
30

June

July

Fixed-Weighted Price Indexes
Base Period

April

April

Index
Inflation Rate

100

May

Index
Inflation Rate

76

June

Index
Inflation Rate

84

July

Index
Inflation Rate

144

May

148
48%
100
32%

148
0%

134
-9%
80
-20%

100
19%

100
0%
100
0%

160
11%

160
0%

70
-30%
100
-38%

140
0%

92
-34%

Chain-Type Price Index
Index
Inflation Rate

100

140
40%

Note: The chain-type index measure of inflation approximately equals the arith­
metic average of the inflation measures for the two underlying fixed-weighted
price indexes.

V p'— , where t is current period, b is base period.

Fixed-weighted index: P( = ~

2 , PA
Chain-weighted index: CPt = I

xCP,_,

Views expressed do not necessarily reflect official positions of the Federal Reserve System

National Econom ic Trends is published monthly by the Research Division o f the Federal Reserve Bank o f St. Louis. For more information on data, please
call (314) 444-8573. Single-copy subscriptions are available free o f charge by writing Research Division, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, Post Office
Box 442, St. Louis, M O 63166-0442 or by calling (314) 444-8808 or (314) 444-8809. Information in this publication is also included in the Federal Reserve


Economic
Data (FRED) electronic bulletin board. You can access FRED with a personal computer and a modem at 314-621-1824.


Table of Contents
Page
3-4
5-6
7-8
9
10
11
12-13
14
15
16-17
18-21
22
23
24
25-27

Nominal and Real Gross Domestic Product (G D P)
Price Deflators
Consumer and Producer Prices
Employment Costs
Productivity and Unit Labor Cost
Industrial Production
Employment and Unemployment
Real Personal Income
Retail Sales
Inventories and Final Sales
Components o f Real GDP
U.S. International Transactions
Gross Saving and Investment
Corporate Profits and Cash Flow
Government Budget Data

How to Use the Triangles in this Publication
This publication makes extensive use o f “triangles” to present compound annual rates o f change over various peri­
ods. Consider the simple, abbreviated triangle below for quarterly Real Gross Domestic Product from the first quar­
ter of 1990 to the fourth quarter o f 1991. From this triangle, the reader can obtain rates o f change from any date on
the top row to any date along the left column; actual dollar figures for the periods in the left-most column are shown
in the right-most column. In our example, the compound annual rate o f growth from n/1990 to m/1991 can be
found at the intersection o f the D/1990 column and the m/1991 row, a -0.6 percent rate; similarly, the annual rate of
change from 1/1990 to IV/1991 is -0.2 percent. Reading down the diagonal gives the growth rate from one quarter
to the next.

Real Gross Domestic Product
(Compound Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Quarter

Billions of Dollars
Initial Quarter
1-90

2-90

3-90

4-90

2-90

1.5

3-90

0.3

4-90

-0.8

-2.0

-3.2

1-91

-1.1

-2.0

-2.6

-2.1

1-91

3-91
4,917.1

-0.9

4,906.5
4,867.2
4,842.0

2-91

-0.5

-1.0

-1.0

0.0

2.2

3-91

-0.3

-0.6

-0.5

0.3

1.6

4-91

-0.2

-0.5

-0.4

0.3

1.1

Dollars are measured using 1987 prices.




Annual Rates
2-91

2

4,867.9
4,879.9

1.0
0.5

0.1

4,880.8

Gross Domestic Product
Seasonally Adjusted

Trillions of Dollars

Trillions of Dollars

Real GDP is measured using 1987 prices.
Shaded area represents a period of business recession.
Percentages are annual rates of change for periods indicated.

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Gross Domestic Product
(Compound Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Quarter

Billions of Dollars
Annual Rates

2-90 3-90 4-90

1-91 2-91 3-91 4-91

Initial Quarter
1-92 2-92 3-92 4-92

1-93 2-93 3-93 4-93

1-94 2-94 3-94 4-94

2-90 3-90 4-90

1-91 2-91 3-91 4-91

1-92 2-92 3-92 4-92 1-93 2-93 3-93 4-93

1-94 2-94 3-94 4-94

First quarter data are preliminary estimates.




Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
June 1,1995

3

Real Gross Domestic Product

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

199 4

1995

Shaded area represents a period of business recession.
—“

Percent change from the previous year

— — — - Ten-year moving average of the growth rate

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Real Gross Domestic Product
(Compound Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Quarter
3-90
4-90
1-91
2-91
3-91
4-91
1-92
2-92
3-92
4-92
1-93
2-93
3-93
4-93
1-94
2-94
3-94
4-94
1-95

2-90 3-90 4-90
-0.9
-2.0 -3.2
-2.0 -2.6 -2.1
0.0
-1.0 -1.0
0.3
-0.6 -0.5
-0.5 -0.4
0.3
0.0
0.2
0.8
0.3
0.5
1.1
0.7
0.9
1.4
1.2
1.4
2.0
1.2
1.4
1.9
1.3
1.5
1.9
1.4
1.6
2.0
1.7
1.9
2.3
1.8
2.0
2.4
2.0
2.2
2.5
2.1
2.3
2.6
2.4
2.8
2.2
2.3
2.4
2.8

1-91 2-91

2-90 3-90 4-90

1-91 2-91

2.2
1.6
1.1
1.6
1.7
20
2.6
2.4
2.4
2.4
2.8
2.8
2.9
3.0
3.1
3.1

1.0
0.5
1.4
1.6
2.0
2.6
2.4
2.4
2,4
2.8
2.9
3.0
3.0
3.2
3.2

3-91 4-91

0.1
1.6
1.9
2.3
3.0
2.7
2.6
2.6
3.0
3.1
3.1
3.2
3.4
3.3

3.1
2.8
3.0
3.7
3.2
3.0
3.0
3.4

Initial Quarter
1-92 2-92 3-92 4-92

3.4
3.5

2.4
2.9
3.9
3.2
3.0
3.0
3.4
3.4
3.5

3.5
3.6
3.6

3.6
3.7
3.6

3-91 4-91

3.5
4.6
3.5
3.2
3.1
3.6
3.6
3.6
3.7
3.8
3.7

5.7
3.4
3.1
3.0
3.6
3.6
3.7
3.7
3.9
3.7

1.2
1.8
2.1
3.1
3.2
3.3
3.4
3.6
3.5

1-92 2-92 3-92 4-92

Dollars are measured using 1987 prices.
First quarter data are preliminary estimates.




Billions of Dollars
Annual Rates
1-93 2-93 3-93 4-93

2.4
2.5
3.8
3.7
3.7

2.7
4.5
4.1
4.1

3.8
4.0
3.8

4.1
4.2
4.0

6.3
4,8
4.6
4.4
4.6
4,2

3.3
3.7
3.8
4.1
3.8

1-93 2-93 3-93 4-93

1-94 2-94 3-94 4-94

4.1
4.1
4.4
4,0

4,906.5
4,867.2
4,842.0
4,867.9
4,879.9
4,880.8
4,918.5
4,947.5
4,990.5
5,060.7
5,075.3
5,105.4
5,139.4
5,218.0
5,261.1
5,314.1
4.0
4.6
3.9

5.1
3.9

2.7

5,367.0
5,433.8
5,470.0

1-94 2-94 3-94 4-94
Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
June 1 ,1 9 9 5

4

Implicit Price Deflator for GDP
Percent Change From Previous Year
Seasonally Adjusted

Percent

Percent

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Implicit Price Deflator
(Compound Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Quarter
2-90 3-90 4-90

1-91 2-91

3-91 4-91

Initial Quarter
1-92 2-92 3-92 4-92

1-93 2-93 3-93 4-93

1-94 2-94 3-94 4-94

2-90 3-90 4-90

1-91 2-91

3-91 4-91

1-92 2-92 3-92 4-92

1-93 2-93 3-93 4-93

1-94 2-94 3-94 4-94
Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
June 1,1995

First quarter data are preliminary estimates.




1987=100

5

GDP Fixed Weight Deflator
(Compound Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Quarter
1-91 2-91

3-91 4-91

3.1
3.1
3.1
2.7
3.0
2.9
3.7
3.2
3.2
3.2
3.5
3.2
3.3
3.2
3.3
3.1
3.1
3.2
3.1
3.1
3.1
3.2
3.3
3.2
3.2
3.2
3.1
3.1
3.1
3.0
3.0
3.0
3.0
3.0
3.0
2.9
3.0
3.0
3.0
3.0
2.9
3.0
3.0
3.0
3.0
3.0
3.0
3.0
2.9
3.0
2.9
3.0
2.9
3.0
2.9
3.0
3.0
1-91 2-91 3-91 4-91
CÔ

3-90
4-90
1-91
2-91
3-91
4-91
1-92
2-92
3-92
4-92
1-93
2-93
3-93
4-93
1-94
2-94
3-94
4-94
1-95

2-90 3-90 4-90
5.1
4.3
3.5
4.6
4.4
5.3
4.3
4.0
4.2
4.0
3.8
3.8
3.8
3.6
3.6
3.6
3.8
3.6
3.7
3.6
3.6
3.6
3.4
3.4
3.4
3.4
3.6
3.4
3.6
3.4
3.4
3.3
3.5
3.2
3.2
3.4
3.2
3.2
3.3
3.2
3.1
3.3
3.2
3.3
3.1
3.2
3.3
3.1
3.2
3.1
3.1
3.2
3.1
3.1
2-90 3-90 4-90

Initial Quarter
1-92 2-92 3-92 4-92

3.4
3.0
2.7
3.0
2.8
3.0
3.2
3.2
3.5
4.0
3.1
3.2
3.0
3.3
2.9
2.8
2.8
2.9
2.8
2.8
2.9
2.8
2.8
2.9
2.8
2.8
2.9
2.9
2.8
2.8
2.9
2.8
2.9
2.8
2.9
2.9
2.8
2.8
2.9
2.9
2.9
2.9
1-92 2-92 3-92 4-92

1987=100
1-93 2-93 3-93 4-93

1-94 2-94 3-94 4-94

2.6
2.3
2.4

1.9
2.2
2.6
2.5
2.7
2.9
2.5
2.6
2.6
2.9
3.0
2.7
2.7
2.9
3.0
2.7
2.7
2.9
2.9
2.7
2.8
2.9
3.0
1-93 2-93 3-93 4-93

First quarter data are preliminary estimates.

3.2
3.0
2.8
2.9
2.8
2.8
3.0 2.9
3.0
3.1
1-94 2-94 3-94 4-94

114.3
115.3
116.8
117.7
118.6
119.4
120.5
121.5
122.3
123.2
124.4
125.2
125.8
126.6
127.5
128.5
129.4
130.3
131.3

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
June 1 ,1 9 9 5

Personal Consumption Expenditure Deflator
(Compound Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Quarter
3-90
4-90

3-92
4-92
1-93
2-93
3-93
4-93
1-94
2-94
3-94
4-94
1-95

1-91 2-91

2.4
2.7
2.9

3 91 4-91

Initial Quarter
1 92 2 92 3-92 4-92

3.1
3.2

1-94 2-94 3-94 4-94

3.4

3.0
3.2
2,9
3.1
3.0
2.9
2.7
2.7
2.6

3.3
3.4
3.0
3.2
3.1
3.0
2.8
2.7
2.6

3.0
3.2

2 .6

2 .6

2.7

2.7

2 .6

2 .6

2.6
2.6
1-91 2-91

3.5

3.1
3.0
2.8
2.7

3.3
3.5
2.9
3.1
3.0
2.9
2.7
2 .6

2.5
2.5
2 .6
2.6
2.6
2.5
2 .6
2.5
2.6
3-91 4-91
2.5

3.7
2.6
3.1
2.9

1.6

3.9
3.3
2.6
2 .8
2 .6
2.4
2.9
2.6
2.0
2.3
2.5
2.5
2.3
2.5
2 .1
2.3
2.2
2.3
1.9
2.4
2.3
2.4
2 .1
2.4
2.5
2.5
2.3
2.4
2.3
2.4
2 .2
2.4
2.3
2.2
2.5
1-92 2-92 3-92 4-92
2 .8

2.7

First quarter data are preliminary estimates.




1987=100
1-93 2 93 3-93 4-93

115.6
117.5
118.5
119.2

C
O ;

1-91
2-91
3-91
4-91
1-92
2-92

2-90 3-90 4-90
6.1
6.4
6.7
5.4
5.1
3.4
4.7
4.2
2.9
4.3
3.9
3.0
4.2
3.8
3.1
4.1
3.7
3.1
4.0
3.7
3.2
3.7
3.4
3.0
3.8
3.5
3.1
3.4
3.0
3.6
3.5
3.3
3.0
3.4
3.1
2.8
3.3
3.1
2 .8
3.1
2.9
2.6
3.1
2.7
2.9
3.1
3.0
2.7
3.1
2.7
2.9
3.0
2.9
2,6
2-90 3-90 4-90

2 .2

1.8
1.9
1.8

1,3
1.7
1,6

2 .2

1.7

1.3

2 .0

2 .0

2 .2

2 .2

2.4
2.5
2 .2
2.3
2.4
2 .2
2.4
2,4
2,2
2-2
1-93 2-93 3-93 4-93
2.2

2.2

3.2
3.2
3.1
2.7
2.5
1.9
2.7
2.5
2.2
2.5
1-94 2-94 3-94 4-94

120.1
121.1
122.1
123.2
123.7
124.9
125.7
126.4
126.8
127.5
127.9
128.9
129.9
130.5
131.3

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

June 1,1995

6

Consumer Price Index
Percent Change From Previous Year
Seasonally Adjusted

Percent

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

Percent

1994

1995

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Consumer Price Index
(Compound Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Month
10-93
11-93
12-93
1-94
2-94
3-94
4-94
5-94
6-94
7-94
8-94
9-94
10-94
11-94
12-94
1-95
2-95
3-95
4-95

Initial Month
9-93 10-93 11-93 12-93 1-94 2-94 3-94 4-94 5-94 6-94 7-94 8-94 9-94 10-94 11-94 12-94 1-95 2-95 3-95
5.9
4.2
2.5
3.6
2.5
2.5
1.9
2.9
1.7
0.8
2.3
3.0
2.2
2.1
3.3
2.3
2.9
2.3
2.2
2.9
2.5
2.3
2.9
2.3
2.3
2.8
2.5
2.5
2.2
2.7
2.2
2.1
1.6
2.5
2.2
2.1
2.9
2.5
4.1
2.5
2.7
2.9
2.5
2.8
2.7
2.9
2.6
3.7
2.6
3.0
2.6
2.9
3.3
2.9
2.8
3.1
3.5
4.1
4.1
2.8
2.8
2.9
3.3
3.2
3.2
5.0
3.0
3.7
2.8
3.2
3.3
2.8
3.6
2.8
3.1
3.1
3.7
2.4
2.9
2.7
2.9
3.0
3.3
2.7
3.1
2.7
2.9
2.9
3.0
2.0
1.6
2.8
2.6
2.6
2.8
2.8
3.0
2.8
2.6
2.8
2.7
2.6
1.9
1.6
1.6
2.8
2.6
2.6
2.7
2.8
2.9
2.7
2.6
2.6
2.8
2.7
2.0
2.4
1.9
2.0
2.9
2.7
2.9
2.7
2.7
2.9
2.9
3.1
2.8
2.4
2.4
2.7
3.2
4.1
2.9
2.8
2.9
2.7
2.9
2.9
3.1
3.0
2.7
2.7
2.9
2.9
2.9
2.6
2.6
3.7
3.2
2.8
3.2
2.9
2.7
2.9
2.7
2.9
2.9
2.7
2.8
3.0
2.9
2.6
2.7
3.2
2.8
2.5
3.0
2.8
2.4
3.0
2.8
2.8
3.0
3.0
2.9
3.0
3.1
3.1
2.8
2.9
3.5
3.2
3.1
3.1
3.4
3.6
3.6
4.9

1982-84=100
145.7
146.0
146.3
146.4
146.8
147.1
147.4
147.6
148.1
148.5
149.1
149.4
149.6
149.8
150.1
150.6
151.0
151.3
151.9

9-93 10-93 11-93 12-93 1-94 2-94 3-94 4-94 5-94 6-94 7-94 8-94 9-94 10-94 11-94 12-94 1-95 2-95 3-95




Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
June 1,1995

7

Producer Price Index — Finished Goods
Percent Change From Previous Year
Seasonally Adjusted

Percent

Percent

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Producer Price Index - Finished Goods
(Compound Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Month

Initial Month
9-93 10-93 11-93 12-93 1-94 2-94 3-94 4-94 5-94 6-94 7-94 8-94 9-94 10-94 11-94 12-94 1-95 2-95 3-95

1982=100
124.1
124.4

10-93
11-93
12-93
1-94

0.0
1.5
0.6
1.9

2.9
1.0
2.6

-1.0
2.4

5.9

1-95
2-95
3-95
4-95

1.7
1.8
1.7
1.9

1.8
1.9
1.8
2.0

1.7
1.9
1.7
2.0

1.9
2.1
1.9
2.2

124.3
124.9

1.6
1.8
1.6
1.9

1.5
1.7
1.5
1.8

1.6
1.8
1.7
2.0

1.8
2,0
1.8

2.2
2.4
2.1
2.4

2.3
2.5
2.2
2.6

2.2
2.5
2.2
2.6

1.3
1.8
1.5
2.0

2.6
2.9
2.4
2.9

5.2
4.9
3.9
4.2

3.9
3.9
2.9
3.5

3.9
3.9
2.6
3.4

3.8
1.9
3.2

0.0
2.9

5.8

126.9
127.3
127.3
127.9

9-93 10-93 11-93 12-93 1-94 2-94 3-94 4-94 5-94 6-94 7-94 8-94 9-94 10-94 11-94 12-94 1-95 2-95 3-95




Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
June 1,1995

8

Employment Cost Index and Its Components
Percent Change From Previous Year
Seasonally Adjusted

Percent

Percent

B enefits

l\
f

V ------ ^

i

>
\

...... .......r ✓

\
\

9

N

- /

S

T<5tal Compensa tion

1

1

1.....

'

I " " 1'

I
1990

1989

^

'

\

77

Wages and Salai ■ies

X

>i
\

~............. ..............................

^ «- ^

\

1 ~r _ _
1991

'

I

•»

N

i. . ( . ,

'

\

.

1993

1992

i

"T " I

|

i

1995

1994

Total compensation is the sum of wages, salaries and benefits for private industry workers.
Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Employment Cost Index - Total Compensation
(Compound Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Quarter

1-93
2-93
3-93
4-93
1-94
2-94
3-94
4-94
1-95

1-91 2-91 3-91 4-91

2-90 3-90 4-90

1-91 2-91 3-91 4-91

4.9
4.5
4.3
4.2
4.0
3.8
3.8
3.8
3.8
3.8
3.7
3.7
3.7
3.6
3.6
3.5

Initial Quarter
1-92 2-92 3-92 4-92

4.1
4.1
4.0
3.7
3.6
3.6
3.7
3.7
3.6
3.6
3.6
3.5
3.5
3.5
3.4

4.0
4.0
3.6

1-94 2-94 3-94 4-94

3.5
3.6
3.6
3.6
3.6
3.5
3.5
3.5
3.4
3.3

4.0
3.4
3.2
3.4
3.6
3.5
3.5
3.5
3.5
3.4
3.4
3.4
3.3

2.9
2.9
3.2
3.5
3.5
3.5
3.4
3.4
3.4
3.4
3.3
3.2

2.8
3.4
3.6
3.6
3.6
3.5
3.5
3.5
3.4
3.4
3.3

110.8
111.9
113.0
113.8
114.6
115.7

3.9
4.1
3.9
3.8
3.7
3.6
3.5
3.5
3.4
3.3

4.2
3.8
3.7
3.6
3.5
3.5
3.5
3.4
3.2

1-92 2-92 3-92 4-92

Data are for the last month of quarter.




June 1989=100
1-93 2-93 3-93 4-93

106.2
107.2
108.4
109.7

«

3-90
4-90
1-91
2-91
3-91
4-91
1-92
2-92
3-92
4-92

2-90 3-90 4-90
4.3
3.8
4.0
4.2
4.2
4.6
4.4
4.4
4.7
4.3
4.3
4.5
4.3
4.4
4.3
4.2
4.3
4.2
4.1
4.1
4.0
3.9
3.9
3.9
3.9
3.9
3.9
3.9
3.9
3.9
3.9
3.9
3.9
3.9
3.8
3.8
3.8
3.8
3.8
3.7
3.8
3.7
3.8
3.7
3.7
3.7
3.7
3.7
3.7
3.6
3.6
3.6
3.6
3.5

3.5
3.5
3.4
3.3
3.3
3.3
3.2
3.1

3.4
3.4
3.3
3.3
3.3
3.2
3.1

3.4
3.2
3.3
3.3
3.2

3.0
3.2
3.2
3.1

3.0

1-93 2-93 3-93 4-93

3.4
3.3
3.1
2.9

3.3
3.0
2.7

2.6
2.5

2.3

1Î6.9
117.9
118.9
119.9
120.8
121.8
122.8
123.6
124.3

1-94 2-94 3-94 4-94
Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
June 1, 1995

9

Business Productivity and Unit Labor Costs
Percent Change From Previous Year
Seasonally Adjusted

Percent

1989

1990

1991

1992

Percent

1993

Shaded area represents a period of business recession.

199 4

1995

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Business Sector - Output Per Hour
(Compound Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Quarter
1-91 2-91

2-90 3-90 4-90

1-91 2-91

3-91 4-91

Initial Quarter
1-92 2-92 3-92 4-92

1982=100
1-93 2-93 3-93 4-93
ililifc

1-94 2-94 3-94 4-94
110.8
110.5

1-11.4
2.2
00
1.9
2.8
2.4
2.7
2.7
2.1
2.0
2.1
2.4
2.5
2.1
2.2
2.3
2.2

f—
4

05

3-90
4-90
1-91
2-91
3-91
4-91
1-92
2-92
3-92
4-92
1-93
2-93
3-93
4-93
1-94
2-94
3-94
4-94
1-95

2-90 3-90 4-90
-1.1
-1.1 -1.1
0.4
1.1
3.3
1.4
2.7
0.8
0.9
2.3
1.4
1.1
1.6
2.3
2.9
1.7 2.2
1.7
2.0
2.6
2.8
2.3
2.4
2.8
2.0
1.9
2.3
1.6
1.6
1.8
2.1
1.7
1.9
2.2
2.2
2.0
2.5
2.0
2.3
2.5
1.8
2.0
2.2
1.9
2.1
2.3
2.0
2.2
2.4
1.9
2.1
2.3




1.4
1.8
3,0
2.5
2.8
2.8
2.1
1.9
2.1
2.5
2.5
2.1
2.2
2.4
2.2

2.2
3.8
2.9
3.1
3.1
2.2
2.0
2.2
2.6
2.6
2.2
2.3
2.4
2.3

5.4
3.2
3.4
3.4
2,3
2.0
2,2
2.6
2.6
2.2
2.3
2.4
2.3

3-91 4-91

1.1
2.5
2.7
1.5
1.3
1.6
2.2
2.3
1.8
2.0
2.2
2.0

3.9
3.5
1.6
1.4
1.7
2.4
2.5
1.9
2.1
2.3
2.1

3.1
0.5
0.6
1.2
2.1
2.2
1.6
1.9
2.1
1.9

-2.0
-0.7
0.6
1.9
2.0
1.4
1.7
2.0
1.8

1-92 2-92 3-92 4-92

0.7
1.9
3.2
3.1
2.1
2.3
2.6
2.3

3.1
4.5
3.9
2.4
2.7
2.9
2.5

5.9
4.3
2.2
2.6
2.9
2,4

2.7
0.3
1.5
2.1
1.7

1-93 2-93 3-93 4-93

-2.0
0.8
1.9
1,5

3.7
3.9
2.7

4.1
2.2

0.3

1-94 2-94 3-94 4-94
Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of
June 1,1995

10

112.0
112,4
113.0
114.5
114.8
115.9
116.8
116.2
116.4
117.3
119.0
119.8
119.2
120.3
121.5
121.6

St. Louis

Industrial Production
Seasonally Adjusted
19 8 7 -1 0 0

1987=100

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1 99 4

1995

Shaded area represents a period of business recession.
Percentages are annual rates of change for periods indicated.
Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Industrial Production
(Compound Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Month
10-93
11-93
12-93
1-94
2-94
3-94
4-94
5-94
6-94
7-94
8-94
9-94
10-94
11-94
12-94
1-95
2-95
3-95
4-95

Initial Month
9-93 10-93 11-93 12-93 1-94 2-94 3-94 4-94 5-94 6-94 7-94 8-94 9-94 10-94 11-94 12-94 1-95 2-95 3-95
2.2
112.7
6.6 112
8 1 11.1 111
7.3
5.4
0.0
6.0
6.7
7.9
6.9
4.8
9.8
7.4
8.5
7.8
6.8 10.4 10.9
7.2
6.4
1.0
116.7
6.5
7.2
5.8
5.3
4.2
7.4
6.6
7.3
6.6
7.2
6.4
5.7
7.1
6.6
4.9
6,9
6.3
6.6
6.4
5.8
7.0
4.2
5.2
4.2
6.1
6.6
6.0
5.5
6.2
2.1
5.3
5.2
6.3
5.9
6.4
6.9
6.4
6.1
5.8
6.7
5.7
9.5
4.2
5.1
4.8
4.1
5.8
6.1
5.6
5.7
5.0
3.4
4.1 -1.0
4.3
5.7
6.0
5.6
5.1
4.9
4.3
5.6
5.0
3.9
2.0
5.2
4.5
6.2
5.9
5.5
4.8
5.3
5.0
4.7
6.7
8.3
5.9
5.8
5.3
5.4
4.1
6.8
6.1
6.7
6.4
5.9
6.5
6.4
6.7
9.4 11.6 14.9
6.5
6.5
6.4
7.3
8.6
8.8
3.0
6.3
6.5
6.4
5.6
6.1
5.9
7.8
6.2
5.9
6.1
5.9
6.5
5.9
5.8
1.5 0.0
5.9
6.1
5.5
5.1
5.5
5.3
6.4
5.8
5.4
5.9
5.1
6.2
5.6
4.9
3.3 -0.3 -2.0 -3.9
4.8
4.3
4.6
4.1
4.3
5.3
5.5
5.2
5.1
4.3
4.4
4.8
3.6
4.3
2.7
1.6 -1.5 -2.9 -4.3 -4.8
4.8
4.9
4.4
4.1
3.6
3.8
3.4
3.0
4.6
4.2
3.2
2.5
3.3

1987=100

113.7
114.7
114.7
115.6
116.6
117.4
118.0
118.2
119.1
119.0
119.5
120.3
121.7
122.0
122.0
121.6
121.1

9-93 10-93 11-93 12-93 1-94 2-94 3-94 4-94 5-94 6-94 7-94 8-94 9-94 10-94 11-94 12-94 1-95 2-95 3-95




Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
June 1,1995

11

Civilian Employment and Unemployment Rate
Seasonally Adjusted

Percent

Millions of Persons

Shaded area represents a period of business recession.
Percentages are annual rates of change for periods indicated.
* Break in series. January 1994 figures reflect revised data collection procedures and are not directly
comparable with previous data.
Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Civilian Employment
(Compound Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Month

«0
C¡¡

10-93
11-93
12-93
1-94
2-94
3-94
4-94
5-94
6-94
7-94
8-94
9-94
10-94
11-94
12-94
1-95
2-95
3-95
4-95

Thousands of
Initial Month
9-93 10-93 11-93 12-93 1-94 2-94 3-94 4-94 5-94 6-94 7-94 8-94 9-94 10-94 11-94 12-94 1-95 2-95 3-95
3.8
4.0
3.9
IN
^ K IE s
3,7
3.7
3.3
6.7
8.1 13.1
6.0
5.4
6.4
7.9
5.8
3.0
4.4
4.6
5.1
1.3 -0.5
4.5
2.4
4.1
4.1
4.2
4.4
1.0
1.6
2.7
4.0
3.0
4.1
1.6
4.0
4.0
2.0
3.4
1.1 -0.7
1.1
3.4
1.6
3.3
1.4
3.3
1.2
3.2
1.5
0.4
3.2
1.4
1.1
1.4
3.1
3.0
3.3
2.0
3.3
1.6
3.2
3.2
2.0
1.6
2.8
4.1
1.8
3.4
3.4
2.4
2.5
2.3
2.0
3.3
2.1
3.3
4.4
3.3
4.3
3.5
3.5
3.5
2.8
2.9
2.8
3.7
3.5
2.4
2.5
4.5
4.7
4.9
3.5
3.4
3.4
2.8
2.8
2.8
3.4
2.4
3.5
4.0
3.7
2.5
4.0
2.6
3.3
3.3
3.2
2.7
3.2
3.2
2.3
3.4
3.0
2.1
2.4
2.6
2.6
3.5
16
3.2
3.1
3.1
2.4
2.4
2.4
2.8
1.1
0.7
3.0
2.2
2.4
1.6
2.2
3.0
2.8
3.2
3.2
2.7
2.6
3.1
3.3
3.2
2.7
2.7
4.8
2.4
3.3
3.2
2.9
24
2.4
3.2
3.1
3.1
2.5
2.9
2.5
2.6
3.1
2.3
3.1
3.0
2.9
2.7
2.2
2.1
1.4
2.4
2.3
2.8
2.9
2.8
2.1
2.4
2.2
2.7
2.0
2.2
2.0
2.1
2.5
2.3
1.2
1.4 -0.3 -1.9
1.5
13

Persons
119.941
120,332
120,661
121,903
122,208
122,160
122,402
122,703
122,635
122,781
123,197
123,644
124,141
124,403
124,570
124,639
125,125
125,274
125,072

9-93 10-93 11-93 12-93 1-94 2-94 3-94 4-94 5-94 6-94 7-94 8-94 9-94 10-94 11-94 12-94 1-95 2-95 3-95




Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
June 1,1995

12

Payroll Employment
Seasonally Adjusted

Millions of Persons

Millions of Persons

Shaded area represents a period of business recession.
Percentages are annual rates of change for periods indicated.
Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Payroll Employment
(Compound Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Month

Thousands of
Initial Month

Persons

9-93 10-93 11-93 12-93 1-94 2-94 3-94 4-94 5-94 6-94 7-94 8-94 9-94 10-94 11-94 12-94 1-95 2-95 3-95
10-93
11-93
12-93
1-94
2-94
3-94
4-94
5-94
6-94
7-94
8-94
9-94
10-94
11-94
12-94
1-95
2-95
3-95
4-95

111,112

2.1
2.4
2.5

2.1
2.2

2.8
2.7

2.2
2.2
2.6

2.7
1.9

2.0

1.1

3.1
3.0
2.9
3.0
2.9

2.9
2.9
3.0
3.0
3.0
3.0
2.9
3.1
3.1
3.0
3.0
3.0

2.5
2.9
2.9
3.0
3.1
3.1
3.0
2.9
3.2
3.1
3.0
3.1
3.0

1.7
2.5
3.0
2.9
3.1
3.1
3.1
3.1
3.0
3.2
3,1
3.0
3.1
3.0

2.8

2.8

2.8

2.8

2.5

2.8
2.8
2.9
2.9
2.9
2.9

2.8

111,366
111,610
111,711
111,919
112,298
112,699

2.3
3.2
3.6
3.4
3.5
3.5
3.4
3.3
3.2
3.4
3.3
3.2
3,2
3.1
2.9

4.1
4.3
3.7
3.8
3.7
3.6
3.5
3.3
3.5
3.4
3.3
3.3
3.2
3.0

4.4
3.5
3.7
3.6
3.5
3.4
3.1
3.5
3.4
3.2
3.2
3.1
2.9

2.7
3.4
3.3
3.3
3.2
2.9
3.3
3.2
3.1
3.1
3.0

4.1
3.6
3.5
3.3
3.0
3.4
3.3
3.1
3.2
30

3.1
3.1
3.0
2.7
3.3
3.2
3.0
3.1
2.9

2.8

2.8

2.6

3.1
3.0

2.6
3.4
3.2
2.9
3.1
2.9

2,6

2.9
2.3
3.4
3.2
2.9
3.0
2.9
2.5

1.7
3.7
3.3
2.9
3,1
2.9
2.4

5.8
4.1
3.3
3.4
3.1

2.6

2.4
21
2.7
2.5
1.9

18
2.8
2.5

1.8

3.8

2.8
1.8

112,951
113,334
113,624
113,914
114,186
114,348
114,882
115,113
115,282
115,637
115,814
1.9
115,805
0.9 -0.1

9-93 10-93 11-93 12-93 1-94 2-94 3-94 4-94 5-94 6-94 7-94 8-94 9-94 10-94 11-94 12-94 1-95 2-95 3-95




Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
June 1,1995

13

Real Personal Income
Seasonally Adjusted

Trillions of Dollars

1989

1990

1991

1992

Trillions of Dollars

1993

1994

1995

Real incomes are computed using the personal consumption expenditure deflator (1987=100).
Shaded area represents a period of business recession.
Percentages are annual rates of change for periods indicated.
Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Real Disposable Personal Income
(Compound Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Month

10-93
11-93
12-93
1-94
2-94
3-94
4-94
5-94
6-94
7-94
8-94
9-94
10-94
11-94
12-94
1-95
2-95
3-95
4-95

Billions of Dollars
Initial Month

9-93 10-93 11-93 12-93
4.1
4.4 4.6
5.4 6.0 7.5
1.1 -0.6 -8.1
1.8
5.3 4.2
4.9 5.1
4.6 4.7 4.7 3.8
3.4 3.2 3.0
1.9
4.2 4.3 4.2
3.6
3.7 3.6 3.5 2.8
3.5 3.4 3.3 2.7
3.5 3.5 3.4 2.9
3.7 3.7 3.6 3.2
4.7 4.7 4.7 4.5
4.2 4.2 4.1
3.8
4.4 4.5 4.5 4,2
4.4 4.5 4.5 4.2
4.4 4.4 4.4 4.2
4.4 4.5 4.4 4.2
3.5 3.5 3.4,
9-93 10-93 11-93 12-93

3.730.9
3,745.0
3.767.6
3,741.1
18.1
10.4
5.4
6.7
5.2
4.6
4.5
4.7
6.0
5.1
5.4
5.3
5.2
5.2

3.1
-0,4 -3.8
3.2 3 2 10.6
2.2
1.9 4.8 -0.6
1.8 3.8 0.5
2.1
1.6
1.7 2.9 4.2
2.4 2.3 3.9
2.9 2.9 4.3 2.7 3.9 5.1
5.9
4.5 4.7 6.2 5.4 6.9 8.7 11.1 16.5
3.8 3.8 5.0 4.1
5.0 5.9 6.5 6.8 -2.2
5.4 4.7 5.6 6.4 6.9 7,3 3.0 8.4
4,2 4.3
4.2 4.3
5.3 4.6 5.4 6.1
6.4 6.6 3.5 6.4 4.5
5.1 4.5 5.2 5.7 6.0 6.0 3.5 5.5 4.1
3,7
4,2 4.3
5.1
4.6 5.2 5.7 5.9 5.8 3.8
5.4 4.4 4.4
4.3 4.4
5.1
1.7
3.0 3.0 3-6 3.0 3.3 y„M
-3.8-11.9
3,4
M
i.q
1-94 2-94 3-94 4-94 5-94 6-94 7-94 8-94 9-94 10-94 11-94 12-94 1-95 2-95 3-95

Dollars are measured using 1987 prices.




Annual Rates

1-94 2-94 3-94 4-94 5-94 6-94 7-94 8-94 9-94 10-94 11-94 12-94 1-95 2-95 3-95

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
June 1,1995

14

3.793.3
3,803.1
3.790.9
3,822.9
3.820.9
3,826.0
3.839.2
3,857.6
3.907.0
3,899.9
3.926.1
3,940.4
3.952.3
3,968.8
3.927.0

Retail Sales
Seasonally Adjusted

Billions of Dollars

1989

Billions of Dollars

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

The CPI is used to deflate retail sales data (1982—84—100).
Shaded area represents a period of business recession.
Percentages are annual rates of change for periods indicated.
Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Real Retail Sales
(Compound Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Month
________
10-93
11-93
12-93
1-94
2-94
3-94
4-94
5-94
6-94
7-94
8-94
9-94
10-94
11-94
12-94
1-95
2-95
3-95
4-95

Initial Month
9-93 10-93 11-93 12-93 1-94 2-94 3-94 4-94 5-94 6-94 7-94 8-94 9-94 10-94
15.1
6.7
10.8
10.2
7.9
9.1
4.0
0.6 -2.3 -12.6
3.8 23.2
5.8
5.5
7.6
8.6
7.5
7.0 18.3 13.6
7.3
5.2
3.9 10.0
6.6
4.9
4.0 -4.9
1.1 -4.7 -4.5
3.7
2.1
6.2
5.1
3.3
3.4
3.2 -0.0
2.5 10.0
5.6
4.2
6.9
4.5
2.4
5.2
1.9 -0.8
0.6
3.2 -3.2
4.7
3.3
3.6
3.8
1.9
3.7
3.8
6.3
6.6
4.9 13.6
5.5
4.6
4.4
4.2
4.1
6.4
2.7
4.3
6.7
4.6
5.6
4.8
5.6 10.3
7.0
4.1
5.0
7.1
5,3
5.7
5.4
7.9
7.4 11.2
6.2
5.5
9.9 12.9
4.7
5.2
5.2
5.1
6.6
5.0
3.9
7.0
5.9
6.4
2.4
8.9
7.4
7.5
4.6
4.4
3.4
4.5
5.4
4.8
6.0
5.8
4.3
5.1
5.3
4.7
0.8
6.9
4.4
4.1
4.1
3.2
4.2
5.2
5.6
4.6
5.3
4.6
6.0
4.5
1.1
3.9
4.2
2.7
1.8
2.5
3.3
4.1
3.5
2.9
3.3
2.5
1.7
0.7 -2.2
3.3
3.2
3.5
4.4
3.1
3.7
2.2
2.9
4.3
37
3.0
3.8
2.4
1.7 -0.4
3.4
2.7
2.3
2.1
2.9
3.6
13
1.8
2.4
1.7 2.3
0.9
0.1 -1.9
9-93 10-93 11-93 12-93 1-94 2-94 3-94 4-94 5-94 6-94 7-94 8-94 9-94 10-94

Dollars are measured using the CPI (1982-84= 100).




Billions of Dollars
11-94 12-94 1-95 2-95 3-95_________________

-0.7
0.5
-3.6
-1.1
-2.7

1.7
-5.1 -11.4
-1.2 -2.6
-3.2 -4.8

7.0
-1.3

-9.0

121.377
122.030
122.921
121.553
123.681
125.005
124.486
124.012
124.999
124.663
125.997
126.712
128.003
128.251
128.176
128.353
127.065
127.781
126.778

11-94 12-94 1-95 2-95 3-95
Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
June 1 ,1 9 9 5

15

Total Business Inventory/Sales Ratio
Seasonally Adjusted

Ratio

Ratio

Shaded area represents a period of business recession.
Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Inventories and Sales
(Billions of Dollars)

Manufacturing
Period
1992
1993
1994

Retail Trade

Total Business(3)
Inventories
838.90
860.98
916.55

Shipments (1)
2931.95
3100.14
3364.60

Inventories (2)
379.24
377.43
391.81

Sales (1)
1944.61
2072.61
2233.35

Inventories (2)
251.99
267.68
290.02

Sales (1)
6720.25
7113.59
7670.53

1994
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December

276.23
278.57
275.49
288.08
286.13
283.98
291.19
296.05

382.38
383.11
386.65
387.01
386.53
388.06
389.99
391.81

183.04
185.12
185.13
187.86
189.31
191.49
192.12
192.39

275.17
278.95
276.49
283.52
287.25
288.67
289.99
290.02

628.71
634.57
631.79
652.89
651.40
653.12
661.90
671.28

880.51
884.89
889.41
897.79
902.12
908.57
913.83
916.55

1995
January
February
March
April

297.79
298.56
298.85
N.A.

396.10
399.73
402.33
N.A.

193.30
191.87
193.33
192.58

294.30
296.00
297.18
N.A.

673.92
675.48
675.31
N.A

928.67
936.09
942.74
N.A.




15»

1. Annual data are sums of monthly shipments/sales.
2. Annual data are end-of-year stocks.
3. Total business is the sum of manufacturing, retail trade and merchant wholesalers.
Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

16

Real Final Sales and Real GDP
Percent Change From Previous Year
Seasonally Adjusted
Percent

Percent

5

5

4

3

2

1

0

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

199 4

1995

Real final sales and real GDP are measured using 1987 prices.
Shaded area represents a period of business recession.

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Real Final Sales
(Compound Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Quarter
3*90
4-90
1-91
2-91
3-91
4-91
1-92
2-92
3*92
4-92
1-93
2-93
3-93
4-93
1-94
2-94
3-94
4-94
1-95

2-90
0.5
-0.0
-0.8
-0.2
-0.3
-0.3
0.4
0.6
0 .9

1.3
1.2
13
1.5
1.8
1.8
1.8
2.0
2.2
22

3-90 4-90
-0.6
-1.5
-0.4
*0 5
-0.5
0.4
0.6
0.9
1.4
1.3
1.4
1.5
1.9
1.9
1.9
2.1
2.3
2.3

-2.4
-0.3
-0.5
-0.4
0.6
0.8
1.1
1.7
1.5
1.6
1.7
2.1
2.1
2.1
2.2
2.4
2.5

2-90 3-90 4-90

1-91 2-91

1.8
0.5
0.2
1.4
1.4
1.7
2.3
2.0
2.1
2.2
2.6
2.5
2.4
2.6
2.8
2.8

3-91

4-91

Billions of Dollars
Initial Quarter
1-92 2-92 3-92 4-92 1-93 2-93 3-93 4-93

4,895.6
4,888.0
4,858.4
4,879.8
-0.8
-0.5
1.2
1.3
1.7
2.4
2.1
2.1
2.2
2.6
2.6
2.5
2.6
2.9
2.8

4.869.5
-0.2
2.3
2.0
2.4
3.0
2.5
2.5
2.6
3.0
2.9
2.8
2.9
3.1
3 1

4.8
3.1
3.2
3.8
3.1
3.0
3.0
3.4
3.3
3.1
3.2
3.4
3.4

1-91 2-91 3-91 4-91

1.5
2.5
3.5
2.7
2.6
2.7
3.2
3.1
2.9
3.1
3.3
3.2

4,867.3
4,924.8
4,943.2
3.5
4.5
3.1
2.9
3.0
3.5
3.3
3.1
3.2
3.5
3.4

5.6
2.9
2.7
2.8
3.5
3.3
3.1
3.2
3.5
3.4

0.2
1.3
1.9
3.0
2.9
2.6
2.9
3.2
3.1

1-92 2-92 3-92 4-92

2.4
2.8
4.0
3.5
3.1
3.3
3.7
3.5

3.2
4.8
3.9
3.3
3.5
3.9
3.7

6.4
4.3
3.4
36
4.0
3.8

2.2
1.8
2.6
3.4
3.2

1-93 2-93 3-93 4-93

1.5
2.9
3.8
3.5

4.3
5.0
4.2

5.7
4,1

2.5

4,985.3
5,054.1
5,056.8
5,086.5
5,126.5
5,207.2
5,235.7
5,254.9
5,310.0
5,384.4
5.417.7

1-94 2-94 3-94 4-94
Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
June 1 ,1 9 9 5

Dollars are m easured using 1987 prices.
First quarter data are preliminary estimates.




Annual Rates
1-94 2-94 3-94 4-94

17

Components of Real GDP Growth Rate
1 -95
Real GDP

2.69

4-94

3-94

2-94

1 -94

4-93

3-93

2-93

5.07

4.04

4.09

3.35

6.26

2.69

2.39

Components (1)
Final Sales

2.47

5.66

4.21

1.47

2.20

6.43

3.17

2.36

Change in Business
Inventories

0.21

-0.57

-0.16

2.59

1.12

-0.17

-0.46

0.03

1.22

3.39

2.04

0.88

3.11

2.67

2.61

1.75

Personal Consumption
Expenditures
Fixed Investment

2.42

2.22

1.40

1.40

1.67

3.38

1.70

1.31

Nonresidential

2.53

2.12

1.67

1.09

1.26

2.30

1.33

1.64

-0.11

0.10

-0.27

0.30

0.41

1.05

0.37

-0.32

Residential
Government Purchases
Federal
State and Local
Net Exports
Exports
Imports

-0.21

-0.73

1.13

-0.21

-0.89

-0.02

0.20

0.22

-0.26

-0.97

0.66

-0.53

-0.72

-0.35

-0.21

-0.26

0.05

0.25

0.46

0.31

-0.16

0.33

0.41

0.48

-0.95

0.74

-0.39

-0.59

-1.66

0.32

-1.33

-0.92

0.32

2.36

1.71

1.86

-0.43

2.35

-0.38

0.87

-1.26

-1.59

-2.08

-2.41

-1.24

-1.99

-0.94

-1.78

(1) Contribution of each component to the compound annual rate of real GDP growth in each quarter indicated.
Elements may not sum to the total due to rounding.
Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Real Personal Consumption Expenditures
(Compound Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Quarter
2-90 3-90 4-90

1-91 2-91 3-91 4-91

Billions of Dollars
Initial Quarter
1-92 2-92 3-92 4-92 1-93 2-93 3-93 4-93

2-90 3-90 4-90

1-91 2-91

1-92 2-92 3-92 4-92

3-91 4-91

Dollars are measured using 1987 prices.
First quarter data are preliminary estimates.




1-93 2-93 3-93 4-93

Annual Rates
1-94 2-94 3-94 4-94

1-94 2-94 3-94 4-94

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
June 1,1995

18

Real Residential Fixed Investment
(Compound Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Quarter
3-90
4-90
1-91
2-91
3-91
4-91
1-92
2-92
3-92
4-92
1-93
2-93
3-93
4-93
1-94
2-94

2-90
-22.1
-23.2
-23.7
-17.9
-12.1
-8.0
-4.2
-1.2
-1.0
1.3
1.6
0.8
1.5
3.2
3.6
3.8

3-90 4-90

1-95

Billions of Dollars
Annual Rates
1-93 2-93 3-93 4-93

1-94 2-94 3-94 4-94
189.0

-24.3
-24.5
-16.5
-9.4
-4.9
-0.8
2.2
2.1
4.3
4.4
3.2
3.7
5.4
5.8
5.8
5.1
3.2
3.2
4.9
2,9
4.5
2-90 3-90

3-94
4-94

1-91 2-91 3-91 4-91

Initial Quarter
1-92 2-92 3-92 4-92

176.3
*24.8
-12.3
-3.8
0.7
4.7
7.5
6.5
8.5
8.2
6.5
6.8
8.4
8,5
8.4
7.4
7.0
6,5
4-90

2.2
8.7
10.9
13.7
15.4
12.9
14.4
13.2
10.7
10.6
12.0
11.9
11.5
10.1
9.6
8.8
1-91

15.6
15.6
17.8
19.0
15.1
16.5
14.9
11.8
11.5
13.1
12.8
12.3
10.8
10.1
9.2
2-91

15.6
18.9 22.4
20.2 22.6 22.7
15.0 14.8 11.2 0.8
16.7 17.0 15.3 11.7
14.7 14.6 12,7 9.5
5.0
11.2 10.5 8.3
5.9
11.0 10.4 8,5
12.8 12.5 11.1 9.3
12,5 12.2 11.0 9.4
12.0 11.6 10.5 9.1
10.4 9.9
8.7
7.3
9.7
6.8
9.3
8.1
8.8
8.3
7.2
5.9
3-91 4-91 1-92 2-92

164.2
165.1
171.2
177.5
186.7
196.5
23.8
14.2 5.3
6.4 -1.3 -7.6
7.2
2.1
0.6
11.1 8.1
9.0
9.3
10.9 8.5
10.3 8.2
8.8
8.1
6.1
6,2
7.5
5.6
5.6
6,4 4.6
4,6
3-92 4-92 1-93

9.4
18.4
15.5
13.3
9.2
8.0
6.4
2-93

28.2
18.7 10.0
14.7 8.5
9.1
3.4
7.7
3.1
5.9
2.0
3-93 4-93

7.0
0.3
0.9
0.0
1-94

-6.0
-2.0 2.3
*2.2 -0.2 *2.6
2-94 3-94 4-94

196.9
207.7
210.4
206.3
211.0
224.5
229.9
233.8
230.2
231.5
230.0

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
June 1 ,1 9 9 5

Dollars are measured using 1987 prices.
First quarter data are preliminary estimates.

Real Nonresidential Fixed Investment
(Compound Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Quarter

4
b

3-90
4-90
1-91
2-91
3-91
4-91
1-92
2-92
3-92
4-92
1-93
2-93
3-93
4-93
1-94
2-94
3*94
4-94
1-95

2-90
5.0
-1.6
-5.4
-4.8
-4.4
-4.7
-1.8
-1.1
-0.3
1.0
2.2
2.9
4.1
4.6
4.8
5.4
6.0
6.7
2-90

3-90 4-90
-7.7
-10.2
-7.9
-6.7
-6.5
-5.4
-2.8
-1.8
-0.8
0.7
1.9
2.7
4.1
4,5
4.8
5.4
6.1
6,8
3-90

-12.7
-7.9
-6.3
-6.2
-5.0
-1.9
-1.0
0.1
1.6
3.0
3.8
5.1
5.5
5.8
6.3
7.0
7.8
4-90

Dollars are measured using

1987

1-91 2-91 3-91 4-91

-3.0
-3.0
-3.9
-2.9
0.4
1.1
2.0
3.6
4.9
5.6
6.9
7.2
7.4
7.8
8.5
9.2
1-91

-3.0
-4.4
-2.9
1.3
2.0
2.9
4.6
5.9
6.6
7.9
8.2
8.3
8.7
9.3
10,1
2-91

-5.7
-2,9
2.7
3.3
4.1
5.9
7.2
7.8
9.2
9.4
9.4
9.7
10.3
11.0
3-91

Billions of Dollars
Initial Quarter
1-92 2-92 3-92 4-92 1-93 2-93 3-93 4-93
551.2

540.2
522.2
518.3
514.4
506.9
-0.1
7.2
6.4
67
8.3
9.5
9.9
11.2
11.2
11.0
11.3
11.8
12,5
4-91

506.8
15.0
9.9
9.1
10.6
11.6
11.7
13.0
12.7
12.3
12.5
12.9
13.6
1-92

5.0
6.2
9.1
10.7
11.0
12.6
12.4
12.0
12.2
12.7
13,4
2-92

7.5
11.3
12.7
12.6
14.2
13.7
13.0
13.1
13.6
14.3
3-92

15.1
15.4
14.3
16.0
14,9
13.9
14.0
14.4
15,1
4-92

15.6
13.9
16.2
14.9
13.7
13.8
14.3
15.1
1-93

12.2
16.5
14.6
13.2
13.4
14.1
15.0
2-93

21.1
15.9
13.6
13.7
14.5
15.5
3-93

10.9
10.0 9.2
11.4 11.6
12.9 13.6
14.4 15.3
4-93 1-94

14.1
15.9 17.6
17.5 19,2 20.7
2-94 3-94 4-94

524.8
531.2
540.9
560.3
581.0
597.9
627.2
643.6
657.9
680.0
708.2
742.3

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

prices.

First quarter data are preliminary estimates.




Annual Rates
1-94 2-94 3-94 4-94

June 1,1995

19

Real Government Purchases of Goods and Services
(Compound Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Quarter
3-90
4-90
1-91
2-91
3-91
4-91
1-92
2-92
3-92
4-92
1-93
2-93
3-93
4-93
1-94
2-94
4-94
1-95

2-90 3-90 4-90
-0.6
2.6
5.8
2.7
3.0
4.4
2.1
3.1
1.7
0.9
1 3 -0.2
0.3
0.4 -0.8
0.4
0.6 -0.4
0.0
0.1 -0.8
0.4
0.5 -0.2
0.4
0.5 -0.1
-0.2 -0.1 -0.8
-0.0
0.0 -0.6
0.0
0.1 -0.4
0.0
0.1 -0.4
-0.3 -0.3 -0.7
-0.4 -0.3 -0.8

0.5
-1.7
-2.1
-1 *2
-1 6
-0.8
-0.5
-1.2
-1.0
-0.7
-0.7
-1.1
-1.1

-0.2 -0.2 -0.5
-0.3 -0.2 -0.6
2-90 3-90 4-90

-0.8 -0.9
-0.8 -0.9
1-91 2-91

1-91 2-91

-3.9
-3.4
-1.8
-2.1
-1.0
-0.7
-1.5
-1.1
-0.9
-0.8
-1.2
-1.2

3-91 4-91

-2.9
-0.7
1.5
-1.5 -0.8
-0.3 0.6
0.7
-0.1
-1.1 -0.7
-0.7 -0.4
-0.5 -0.2
-0.5 -0.2
-0.9 -0.7
-0.9 -0.7
-0 3
-0.6 -0.4
-0.7 -0.5
3-91 4-91

Billions of Dollars
Initial Quarter
1-92 2-92 3-92 4-92 1-93 2-93 3-93 4-93

-3.0
0.1
0.4
-1.2
-0.7
-0.4
-0.4
-1.0
-1.0

3.4
2.1
-0.6
-0.2
0.1
0.1
-0.7
-0.7

0.9
-2.5
-1.3
-0.7
-0.6
-1.3
-1.3

-5 9
-2.4
-1.2
-1.0
-1.8
-1.7

-0.6 -0.4 -0.8 -1.0
-0.7 -0.4 -0.8 -1.0
1-92 2-92 3-92 4-92

1.2
1.1
0.7
-0.7
-0.8

11
0.5
-1.3
-1.3

-0.1
-2.5
-2.1

-4.9
-3.1

-0.3 -0.5 -0.8 -1.0
-0.4 -0.6 -Q.9 -1.0
1-93 2-93 3-93 4-93

Dollars are measured using 1987 prices.
First quarter data are preliminary estimates.

Annual Rates
1-94 2-94 3-94 4-94
929.2
942.4
949.5
950.6
941.3
934.4
937.8
930.7
938.5
940.6
926.5
929.3
931.8
931.5
919.9
917.1

-12
0.3
1.1 -4.1
-0.1
0.3 -2.7 -1,2
1-94 2-94 3-94 4-94

922.2
919.4

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
June 1 ,1 9 9 5

Real Federal Purchases of Goods and Services
(Compound Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Quarter
2-90 3-90 4-90
7.5
8.4
9.3
5.1
4.0
1.1 -1.0
-1.2 -3.2
-1.2 -2.8
-1.7 -3.2
-0.5 -1.6
-0.3 -1.2
-1.9 -2.9
-2.1 -3.0
-2.2 -3.0
-2.4 -3.2
-3.0
-3.3 -4.0
-2.6 -2.5 -3.1
-3.3 -3.2 -3.8
-3.4 -3.3 -3.9
2-90 3-90 4-90
co
\

3-94
4-94
1-95

-5.2
0.9
3.7
2.4
-0.2
-1.8
-1.8
-2.2
-1.0
-0.8
-2.2
-2.3
-2.4
-2.6
-3.1
-3.4

:

3-90
4-90
1-91
2-91
3-91
4-91
1-92
2-92
3-92
4-92
1-93
2-93
3-93
4-93
1-94
2-94

1-91 2-91

3-91 4-91

Billions of Dollars
Initial Quarter
1-92 2-92 3-92 4-92 1-93 2-93 3-93 4-93

379.6
386.5
395.2
-1.1
-5.8 -10.2
-7.1 -9.9
-5.6 -7.1
-5.5 -6.5
-3.3 -3.7
-2.7 -2.9
-4.3 -4.8
-4.3 -4.7
-4.1 -4.5
-4.2 -4.5
-4.7 -5.1
-5.0 -5.3
-3.9 -4.1
-4.7 -4.9
-4.6 -4.9
1-91 2-91

-9.5
-5.5 -1.3
-5.3 -3.1
-2.0 0.7
0.8
-1.4
-3.9 -2.7
-3.8 -2.8
-3.7 -2.9
-3.9 -3.1
-4.5 -3.9
-4.8 -4.4
-3.6 -3.1
-4.5 -4.1
-4.5 -4.1
3-91 4-91

394.1
383.6
374.1
372.9
-4.8
1.7
1.5
-3.0
-3.1
-3.1
-3.4

8.6
4.8
-2.4
-2.7
-2.8
-3.1
-4.3 -4.2
-4.7 -4.7
-3.2 -3.1
-4.3 -4.3
-4.3 -4.2
1-92 2-92

368.3
376.0
1.1
-7.5 -15.4
-6.2 -9.7 -3.6
-5.4 -7.5 -3.3
-5.3 -6.9 -3.9
-6.2 -7.6 -5.5
-6.4 -7.6 -6.0
-4.4 -5.2 -3.4
-5.6 -6.4 -5.0
-5.4 -6.1 -4.9
3-92 4-92 1-93

Dollars are measured using 1 987 prices.

-3.0
-4.0 -5.0
-6.1 -7.7 -10.3
-6.6 -7.8 -9.1 -7.9
1.1
-3.3 -3.4 -2.9
-5.3 -5.7 -5.9 -4.4
-5.1 -5,5 -5.6 -4.3
2-93 3-93 4-93 1-94

10.9
-2.6 -14.4
-3.1 -9.4 -4.2
2-94 3-94 4-94

377.0
361.6
358.3
355.6
351.1
341.7
334.7
343.5
330.4
326.9

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

First quarter data are preliminary estimates.




Annual Rates
1-94 2-94 3-94 4-94

June 1,1995

20

Real Exports
(Compound Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Quarter

Billions of Dollars
Annual Rates

Initial Quarter
1-92 2-92 3-92 4-92

1-93 2-93 3-93 4-93 1-94 2-94 3-94 4-94
2-90 3-90 4-90 1-91 2-91 3-91 4-91
-1.9
508.6
3.7
9.6
2.1
4.1 -1.1
6.4
9.4
9.3 20.7
5.2
7.1
0.6
6.3 10,2
6.6
8.4
8.1 11.4
7.0 13.7
6.5
8.0
6.1
7.7 10.0
9.8
6.7
7.1
3.8
1.5
5.9
6.6
7.0
8.3
5.3
5.8
4.3
3.4
6.8
6.4
6.6
5.3
7.8
5.3
4.6
6.0
7.7
6.7
5.0
6.2
72
6.9
6.5
5.6
4.7
5.4
3.8
3.2
3.8
3.0 -1.0
5.3
6.1
5.7
6.5
4 1 4.7
5.5
6.2
6.7
5.0
5.7
4.4
3.2
7.7
5.9
4.6
5.4
2.8
4.8
5.0
5.6
4.1
4.5
3.3
3.1
2.5
1.0 2.1 *3,2
5.9
6.6
6.3
7.0
5.7
6.3
5.4
5.3
6.0
8.2
8.5 21.7
6.1
5.8
4.4
5.2
5.3
5.8
5.5
6.1
4.8
5.3
4.2
4.6
4.4
3.9
4.3
8.3 *3.5
6.5
6.3
7.4
5.9
6.9
5.8
6.3
5.5
5.5
6.0
6.1
5.9
7.3 11.0
6.1 16.6
7.1
6.4
6.4
7.0
6.8
6.4
7.0
6.4
6.9
7.2
8.6
8.7 12.0
8.9 15.7 14.8
7.4
7.7
7.2
8.2
7.6
8.2
7.4
7.4
7.6
8.5
8.7 10.2 10.6 13.6 11.6 17.2 17.5 20.2
7.9
7.4
2.5
7.3
7.7
7.9
9.4 11.6
9.7 13 3 12.3 11.0
6.9
7.0
7.5
7.1
7.1
8.0
9.2
7.9
2-90 3-90 4-90 1-91 2-91 3-91 4-91 1-92 2-92 3-92 4-92 1-93 2-93 3-93 4-93 1-94 2-94 3-94 4-94

3-90
4-90
1-91
2-91
3-91
4-91
1-92
2-92
3-92
4-92
1-93
2-93
3-93
4-93
1-94
2-94
3-94
4-94
1-95

520.4
519.0
544.0
544.8
562.6
571.0
573.1
580.5
590.7
589.2
600.2
595.3
625.2
619.6
643.9
666.5
697.9
702.2

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
June 1, 1995

Dollars are measured using 1987 prices.
First quarter data are preliminary estimates.

Real Imports
(Compound Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Quarter
2-90 3-90 4-90

1-91 2-91 3-91 4-91

Initial Quarter
1-92 2-92 3-92 4-92 1-93 2-93 3-93 4-93

2-90 3-90 4-90

1-91 2-91 3-91 4-91

1-92 2-92 3-92 4-92 1-93 2-93 3-93 4-93

1-94 2-94 3-94 4-94

1-94 2-94 3-94 4-94
Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
June 1,1995

Dollars are measured using 1987 prices.
First quarter data are preliminary estimates.




Billions of Dollars
Annual Rates

21

Trade and Current Account Balances
Current Prices
Billions of Dollars

1989

Billions of Dollars

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

The goods and services trade balance and the current account are for the current plus 3 previous
quarters until 1993. Since 1993, the goods and services trade balance uses the current plus
previous 11 months.
Shaded area represents a period of business recession.

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

U.S. International Transactions
(Millions of Dollars, Seasonally Adjusted)

4 - 94

3-94

2-94

1 -94

4-93

3-93

2-93

1 -93

Exports
Goods and Services
Income Receipts on U.S. Assets Abroad

185,549 177,302 170,431
37,483

35,626

31,868

164,737 166,279 158,052
29,879

28,816

28,513

160,105 157,241
28,801

27,727

Imports
Goods and Services
Income Payments on Foreign Assets in the U.S.

-212,224 -206,040 -197,068 -189,057 -186,255 -180,310 -179,175 -171,663
-44,987

-39,663

-34,687

-30,699

-29,406

-26,498

-28,133

-25,872

Balance on Current Account

-44,758

-40,848

-37,827

-32,238

-30,587

-27,856

-25,602

-19,850

Change in U.S. Assets Abroad

-44,136

-25,849

-7,251

-48,456

-63,622

-35,651

-35,966

-12,659

U.S. Official Reserve Assets
U.S. Private Assets

Change in Foreign Assets in the U.S.

2,033

-165

3,537

-59

-673

-545

822

-983

-45,208

-25,414

-11,250

-48,887

-62,628

-34,915

-36,507

-12,164

89,921

80,254

49,309

95,130

90,162

71,934

51,829

16,772

Foreign Official Assets

-1,003

19,460

8,925

11,530

23,962

19,259

17,492

10,968

Other Foreign Assets

90,924

60,794

40,384

83,600

66,200

52,675

34,337

5,804

Note: Negative values indicate dollar outflows from the United States.




Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

22

Gross Saving as a Percent of GDP
Seasonally Adjusted

Percent

Percent

Total saving equals private saving (personal saving plus business saving) plus government surplus or deficit.
Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Gross Saving and Investment
(Billions of Dollars and Percent of GDP)

Gross Saving

Gross Private Saving

Gross Private
Domestic Investment

U.S. Net
Foreign Investment

Period

$ Billion

% of GDP

$ Billion

% Of GDP

$ Billion

% of GDP

$ Billion

% Of GDP

1990:1

735.5
765.9
705.5
683.8

13.5
13.8
12.6
12.2

867.4
888.5
825.5
863.1

15.9
16.0
14.8
15.4

828.9
837.8
812.5
756.4

15.2
15.1
14.6
13.5

-80.3
-73.8
-92.1
-67.7

-1.5
-1.3
-1.6
-1.2

4

798.8
744.5
722.1
740.1

14.2
13.0
12.5
12.8

933.2
937.3
917.9
960.7

16.6
16.4
15.9
16.6

732.8
733.1
756.5
756.8

13.0
12.8
13.1
13.1

55.8
17.6
-22.2
-18.8

1.0
0.3
-0.4
-0.3

1992:1
2
3
4

719.1
722.3
731.9
718.5

12.2
12.1
12.1
11.6

979.1
981.2
1005.3
957.5

16.6
16.4
16.6
15.5

747.7
787.9
795.5
822.0

12.7
13.2
13.2
13.3

-26.6
-54.1
-59.9
-85.6

-0.5
-0.9
-1.0
-1.4

1993:1
2
3
4

760.1
775.0
788.9
825.8

12.2
12.3
12.4
12.7

1022.0
986.6
989.9
1011.4

16.4
15.7
15.6
15.6

853.8
869.7
882.2
922.5

13.7
13.8
13.9
14.2

-68.3
-88.9
-98.8
-113.2

-1.1
-1.4
-1.6
-1.7

1994: 1
2
3
4

886.2
923.3
922.6
950.3

13.5
13.8
13.6
13.8

1037.3
1041.4
1052.7
1082.7

15.8
15.6
15.5
15.7

966.6
1034.4
1055.1
1075.6

14.7
15.5
15.5
15.6

-116.4
-135.1
-153.6
-167.7

-1.8
-2.0
-2.3
-2.4

1995:1

1006.9

14.4

1127.5

16.2

1110.1

15.9

-163.6

-2.3

2
3

4
1991:1
2
3

Note: Gross Saving equals Gross Private Domestic Investment plus U.S. Net Foreign Investment minus a statistical discrepancy.
U.S. Net Foreign Investment is the excess of U.S. investment abroad over foreign investment in the U.S..




Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

23

Corporate Profits After-Tax
(Compound Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Quarter
3-90
4-90
1-91
2-91
3-91
4-91
1-92
2-92
3-92
4-92
1-93
2-93
3-93
4-93
1-94
2-94
3-94
4-94
1-95

2-90
-54.1
-29.8
-5.6
-3.0
-4,1
-2.0
0,6
-0.5
-5.3
2.1
1.8
3.8
5,8
7.1
5.0
6.4
6.2
5.6
5.6

3-90 4-90
7.4
35.4
24.6
15.2
14.1
14.7
11.1
3.7
11.6
10.2
11.8
13.4
14.3
11.4
12.5
119
10.9
10.6

70.7
34.1
18.0
15.9
16.2
11.7
3.2
12.1
10.5
12.2
14.0
14.9
11.8
12.9
12.2
11.2
10.8

2-90 3-90 4-90

1-91 2-91

3-91 4-91

ü

11
5.4
-1.9
1.8
5.5
2.6
-5.1
5.6
4.7
7.1
9.5
10.8
7.9
9.3
8.9
8.0
7.8

-8.7
0.1
5.6
2.0
-7.1
5.6
4.6
7.3
9.9
11.4
8.1
9.7
9.1
8.2
8.0

1-91 2-91

9.7
13.6
5.8
-6.7
8.7
7.0
9.9
12.5
13.9
10.0
11.5
10.8
9.6
9.3
3-91

Initial Quarter
1-92 2-92 3-92 4-92
*
i

Billions of Dollars
Annual Rates
1-93

2-93 3-93 4-93

1-94 2-94 3-94 4-94

.

221.8
225.8
258.1
261.5
255.6
261.6
272.4
266.6
238.6
283.8
282.8
301.3
323.6
342.4
324.1
344.8
347.4
344.7
348.6

.

* "

17.6
3.9 -8.2
-11.5 -23.3 -35.8
5.6 13.3 100.2
8.5
6.4
3.8 8.2 40.5
8.4 13.0 36.5
9.9
12.9 12.2 16.8 35.6
14.4 14.0 18.2 33.5
10.0 9.1 11.8 22.7
11.7 11.0 13.7 23.4
10.9 10.2 12.5 20.7
9.6
8.9 10.8
17.8
9.2 8.6 10.2 16.4
4-91 1-92 2-92 3-92

-1.4
12.7
19.1
20.6
11.2
13.9
12.2
10.2
9.6
4-92

28.8
30.9
29.0
14.6
17.2
14.7
12.0
11.0
1-93

Corporate Profits After-Tax with Capital Consumption and Inventory Valuation Adjustments.
First quarter data are preliminary estimates.

33.1
29.1 25.3
10.2 0.3 -19.7
14.4
1.4 28.1
8.8
7.4
12.1
2.0 14.9
3.1
9.4
5.2
0.7
8.6 -0.1 -3.1
8.7
5.1
1.4 7.6
1.5 0,7
4.6
2-93 3-93 4-93 1-94 2-94 3-94 4-94

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
June 1 ,1 9 9 5

Corporate Profits and Net Cash Flow
(Billions of Dollars)

Period

Corporate
Profits(1)

After-Tax
Profits(1)

Capital
Dividends Consumption

Inventory
Capital
Valuation Consumption
Adjustment
Adjustment

Net
Cash Flow

382.6
409.3
367.5
362.8

250.6
269.5
221.8
225.8

149.9
154.6
155.7
153.7

360.4
365.0
371.3
376.2

-2.0
8.9
-31.5
-19.5

35.8
31.4
22.8
13.5

463.1
471.0
468.9
467.9

4

385.4
391.5
389.6
394.7

258.1
261.5
255.6
261.6

158.0
159.4
161.6
160.9

380.7
382.4
384.1
386.1

10.4
12.1
1.4
-0.8

13.7
18.9
22.5
22.4

470.5
472.4
476.7
487.6

1992: 1
2
3
4

412.1
412.6
363.2
432.5

272.4
266.6
238.6
283.8

161.0
166.8
174.4
182.1

388.6
391.3
410.4
396.8

-4.0
-16.6
-7.3
2.1

19.0
15.8
10.9
16.9

504.0
507.9
481.8
496.5

1993: 1
2
3
4

442.5
473.1
493.5
533.9

282.8
301.3
323.6
342.4

188.2
190.7
193.2
194.6

402.3
404.8
413.3
411.1

-11.2
-10.0
3.0
-6.5

21.0
26.5
31.7
38.8

508.0
525.4
540.6
565.5

1994: 1
2
3
4

508.2
546.4
556.0
560.3

324.1
344.8
347.4
344.7

196.3
202.5
207.9
213.9

432.2
425.9
432.6
438.0

-12.3
-14.1
-19.6
-32.1

37.0
37.4
37.5
38.8

572.2
582.3
591.7
600.9

1995: 1

568.8

348.6

217.1

445.5

-38.7

38.0

615.6

1990: 1
2

3
4
1991: 1
2

3

(1) Profits data includes the Inventory Valuation Adjustment and Capital Consumption Adjustment.
The latter is the excess of depreciation allowances over Capital Consumption.
Net Cash Flow equals After-Tax Corporate Profits less Dividends, less the Inventory Valuation Adjustment, plus Capital Consumption.




Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St.Louis

24

Government D eficit(-)/S u rp lu s(+)
Seasonally Adjusted

Billions of Dollars

Billions of Dollars
0

-5 0

-1 0 0

-1 5 0

-2 0 0

-2 5 0

-300

-3 5 0
1989

1990

1992

1991

1993

199 4

1995

National income accounts basis
Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Federal Government Debt
(BILLIONS OF DOLLARS)
Seasonally Adjusted End of Month Totals

Period
March
June
September
December
March
June
September
December
March
June
September
December
March
June
September
December
March
June
September
December

Federal Debt held Federal Debt held
by Private
by Federal
Investors
Reserve Banks

Gross
Federal Debt

Federal Debt held
by Agencies
and Trusts

Net
Federal Debt

3048.3
3146.3
3246.4
3353.0

734.2
766.9
799.0
820.6

2316.3
2380.4
2448.3
2427.5

223.9
231.1
235.5
251.3

2096.5
2153.8
2217.0
2286.0

420.5
426.0
443.9
456.6

3460.5
3541.4
3680.1
3787.6

880.5
886.3
923.9
958.5

2583.4
2656.6
2757.6
2822.2

253.0
255.0
268.0
272.1

2339.8
2411.3
2500.1
2560.4

463.8
472.7
480.7
488.8

3876.1
3988.9
4081.1
4160.9

978.8
998.6
1021.1
1036.4

2901.1
2992.5
3061.7
3116.5

274.0
277.0
300.1
291.7

2640.9
2727.5
2777.5
2836.6

508.4
529.1
538.4
546.4

4230.6
4356.4
4424.8
4513.1

1060.0
1089.9
1122.3
1139.8

3178.1
3268.6
3304.7
3368.7

313.0
330.0
329.7
330.6

2877.7
2950.2
2995.0
3041.6

562.5
568.3
595.5
619.5

4575.9
4650.5
4706.9
4776.3

1160.3
1192.2
1219.2
1242.1

3423.9
3460.2
3490.2
3529.0

351.4
359.1
359.5
359.4

3076.1
3100.6
3140.4
N.A.

631.5
633.1
658.5
N.A.

Federal Debt held
by Foreign
Investors

Columns may not add because each component is seasonally adjusted separately. Gross federal debt equals debt held by agencies and trusts plus net federal debt.
Net federal debt equals debt held by Federal Reserve banks plus debt held by private investors (which includes debt held by foreign investors).
Sources: Orginal data may be found in the TR EAS UR Y BULLETIN and also in the FEDERAL RESERVE BULLETIN; seasonally adjusted series prepared by this Bank.

Data have been revised to reflect changed seasonal adjustment factors.




Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

25

Government Budgets
(Billions of Dollars; National Incom e Account Basis)

Federal. State and Local

Federal
Period
1990: 1
2
3
4
1991: 1
2
3
4
1992: 1
2
3
4
1993: 1
2
3
4
1994: 1
2
3
4
1995: 1

Receipts
1091.3
1114.5
1123.7
1115.8
1120.1
1121.8
1132.5
1140.5
1155.7
1171.0
1166.5
1219.9
1212.7
1263.7
1272.7
1313.6
1337.4
1380.7
1388.8
1408.8
1437.1

1257.8
1266.5
1268.3
1306.9
1264.5
1329.4
1346.0
1386.3
1435.6
1455.8
1460.4
1492.0
1496.2
1500.6
1497.6
1533.7
1513.7
1525.9
1542.8
1569.9
1587.4

Surplus/
Deficit(-)
-166.4
-152.0
-144.6
-191.0
-144.4
-207.6
-213.6
-245.8
-279.9
-284.8
-293.9
-272.1
-283.5
-237.0
-224.9
-220.1
-176.2
-145.1
-154.0

Surplus/
Receipts
1676.1
1705.0
1728.7
1726.5
1734.0
1744.7
1768.5
1788.7
1813.5
1836.9
1837.0
1908.8
1901.0
1965.1
1980.9
2035.4
2066.5
2121.9
2138.8
2171.1
2207.8

-161.1
-150.3

1808.0
1827.7
1848.6
1905.8
1868.4
1937.4
1964.2
2009.4
2073.5
2095.8
2110.5
2147.9
2162.9
2176.7
2181.9
2221.0
2217.6
2240.1
2268.9
2303.4
2328.4

Grants-in-Aid(l)
127.7
131.9
131.9
137.6
144.3
151.7
154.7
162.6
164.6
172.8
174.6
176.6
176.7
182.9
187.8
197.0
190.0
194.4
200.3
205.5
211.0

-131.9
-122.7
-119.9
-179.3
-134.4
-192.7
-195.8
-220.7
-260.0
-258.9
-273.5
-239.0
-261.9
-211.7
-201.0
-185.6
-151.0
-118.1
-130.1
-132.3
-120.6

(1) F ed eral G rants-in-A id to state and local governm ent are part of federal expenditures and state and local receipts, but are netted out in computing total governm ent m easures.

Federal Budgets
Fiscal Years
Estimate
Total Budget
Receipts
Outlays
Surplus or Deficit(-)

1995
$1,354.3
1.521.4
-167.1

1594

1593

1592

1591

1990

$1,257.2
1.460.6
-203.4

$1,153.2
1.408.5
-255.3

$1,090.5
1.380.9
-290.4

$1,054.3
1.323.8
-269.5

$1,031.3
1.252^
-221.4

Calendar Years
National Income Account
Budget
Receipts
Expenditures
Surplus or Deficit(-)

Note:

1994

1993

1992

1991

1990

$1,379.0

$1,265.7

$1,178.3

$1,128.7

$1,111.4

1.538.1
-159.1

1.507.0
-241.4

1.460.9
-282.7

1,331,6
-202.9

1,274.9
-163.5

Fiscal years refer to the bud get ye a r w hich runs from October 1 through Septem ber 30.
Total budget outlays include fed eral entities that are off-budget.
Estim ates from O M B 's M id-S essio n R eview of the fiscal year 199 4 Budget (July 14, 1994).
Totals m ay not add d u e to rounding.

Source: O ffice of M an ag e m e n t and Budget and U .S . Departm ent of Com m erce.




Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

26

Federal Government Receipts
(Compound Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Quarter
3-90
4-90
1-91
2-91
3-91
4-91
1-92
2-92
3-92
4-92
1-93
2-93
3-93
4-93
1-94
2-94
3-94
4-94
1-95

2-90
3.3
0.2
0.7
0.7
1.3
1.5
2.1
2.5
2.0
3.7
3.1
4.3
4.2
4.8
5.0
5.5
5.3
5.3
5.5

3-90 4-90
-2.8
-0.6
-0.2
0.8
1.2
1.9
2.4
1.9
3.7
3.1
4.4
4.2
4.9
5.1
5.6
5.4
5.5
5.6

1.6
1.1
2,0
2.2
2.9
3.3
2.6
4.6
3.8
5.1
4.9
5.6
5.7
6.3
6.0
6.0
6.1

2-90 3-90 4-90

1-91 2-91 3-91 4-91

Initial Quarter
1-92 2-92 3-92 4-92

Billions of Dollars
Annual Rates
1-93 2-93 3-93 4-93

1-94 2-94 3-94 4-94
1.123.7
1,115.8
1,120.1

0.6
2.2
2.4
3.2
3.6
2.7
5.0
4.1
5.5
5.2
6.0
6.1
6.6
6.3
6.3
6.4

1,121.8
3.9
3.4
4.0
4.4
3.2
5.7
4.6
6.1
5.8
6.5
6.6
7.2
6.8
6.7
6.8

1.132.5
2.9
4.1
4.6
3.0
6.1
4.7
6.5
6.0
6.8
6.9
7.5
7.0
6.9
7.0

1,140.5
5.4
5.4
3.1
7.0
5.0
7.1
6.5
7.3
7.3
7.9
7.4
7.3
7.4

1-91 2-91 3-91 4-91

1.155.7
5.4
1.9
7.5
4.9
7.4
6.6
7.6
7.6
8.2
7.6
7.5
7.5

1,171.0
-1.5
8.5
4*8
7.9
6.9
8.0
7.9
8.6
7.9
7.7
7.7

19.6
8,1 -2.3
11.3 7.3
9.1
5.8
10.0 7.7
9.5
7.6
10.1 8.6
9.1
7.7
8.7
7.5
8.7
7.6

1-92 2-92 3-92 4-92

1.166.5
1,219.9
1,212.7
1,263.7
1.272.7
1,313.6
1,337.4
1,380.7
1.388.8
1,408.8
1.437.1

-

17.9
10.1
11.2
10.3
10.9
9.5
8.9
89

2.9
8.1
7.9
9.3
7.8
7.5
7.6

13.5
10.4
11.5
9.1
8.5
8.4

7.4
10.5
7.7
7.2
7.5

1-93 2-93 3-93 4-93

First quarter data are preliminary estimates.

13.6
7.8
7.2
7.5

2.4
4.1
5.5

5.9
7.1

8.3

1-94 2-94 3-94 4-94

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
June 1 ,1 9 9 5

Federal Government Expenditures
(Compound Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Quarter
3-90
4-90
1-91
2-91
3-91
4-91
1-92
2-92
3-92
4-92
1-93
2-93
3-93
4-93
1-94
2-94
3-94
4-94
1-95

2-90 3-90 4-90 1-91 2-91 3-91 4-91
0.6
6.5 12.7
-0.2 *0.6 -12.4
6.5
3.5 22.2
5.0
5.0
6.1
4.0 13.3 5.1
6.2
7.4
6.1 13.0 8.7 12.5
7.4
8.6
7.8 13.5 10.8 13.8 15.0
7.2
8.2
7.5 11.9 9.5 11.0 10.3
7.2
6.6 10.1 7.8
8.5
6.5
7.3
7.6
6.8
7.5
6.8
9.9
8.0
8.6
6.3
7.3
6.8
6.2
8.8
7.0
6.2
5.4
6.2
6.4
5.7
7.9
5.8
6.3
4.5
5.7
7.0
5.4
5.5
5.3
5.1
5.2
7.3
5.9
6.0
5.6
6.0
5.5
4.0
4.6
6.2
4.8
4.8
4.9
5.2
4.7
4.7
3.9
4.8
5.1
4.5
6.0
4.7
4.7
4.0
4.8
5.0
4.5
5.8
4.2
4.9
4.7
5.9
4.9
4.8
5.1
4.9
4.7
4.8
4.3
5.1
5.9
4.8
2-90 3-90 4-90

1-91 2-91

3-91 4-91

Billions of Dollars
Initial Quarter
1-92 2-92 3-92 4-92 1-93 2-93 3-93 4-93

1,268.3
1,306.9
1,264.5
1,329.4
1,346.0
1,386.3
1,435.6
5.7
3.5
5.3
4.2
3.6
2.9
3.8
2.7
2.7
2.9
3.3
3.4

1,3
5.0
3.7
3.1
2.3
3.5
2.3
2.4
2,6
3.1
3,2

1,455.8
1,460.4
8.9
5.0
3.7
2.5
4.0
2.4
2.5
2.8
3.3
3.4

1.1
1.2
0,5
2.8
1.2
1.5
1.9
2.6
2.8

1-92 2-92 3-92 4-92

1.2
0.2
3.4
1.2
1.6
2.1
2.8
3.0

-0.8
4.5
1.2
1.7
2,2
3.1
3.3

*
10.0
2.2
2.5
3.0
3.8
4.0

-5.1
-1.0
0.8
2.4
28

1-93 2-93 3-93 4-93

3.3
3.9
5.0
4.9

4.5
5.9
5.4

7.2
5,9

4.5

1,492.0
1»496.2
1,500.6
1,497.6
1,533.7
1,513.7
1,525.9
1,542.8
1,569.9
1.587.4

1-94 2-94 3-94 4-94
Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
June 1, 1995

First quarter data are preliminary estimates.




Annual Rates
1-94 2-94 3-94 4-94

27

Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
Post Office Box 442
St. Louis, Missouri 63166

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