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N a tio n a l E c o n o m ic
November 1991
The

a n n o u n c e m e n t th a t re a l G N P

a c c e le r a t e d

at an

a n n u a l ra te

o f 2 .4

p e r c e n t in

th e t h ir d

q u a rte r has m a n y

a n a ly s t s

p r o c l a im in g a n e n d t o t h e c u r r e n t r e c e s s io n . T h e g r o w t h o f r e a l G N P — t h e b r o a d e s t m e a s u r e o f n a t io n a l e c o n o m ic a c t i v it y — is
im p o r t a n t in d a t in g c y c lic a l t u r n in g p o in t s ; h o w e v e r , th e C y c l e D a t in g C o m m it t e e o f th e N B E R
o t h e r e c o n o m ic
e x a m in a t io n

t im e

o f th e s e

s e r ie s .

L is t e d

s e r ie s

r e v e a ls

b e lo w

a re 2 0

th a t n in e

s e r ie s

o f th e m

th a t h a v e

b o tto m e d

been

in

th e

used
fir s t

to

d e t e r m in e

q u a rte r

w h ile

t y p ic a lly c o n s id e r s m a n y

th e s e p e a k s

and

e ig h t a p p e a r to

tro u g h s .
have

t h e ir t r o u g h s i n t h e s e c o n d q u a r t e r . F o r t h e r e m a in in g t h r e e s e r ie s , t h e t r o u g h is n o t c l e a r l y d e f in e d . T h is lis t in g

A n

re a c h e d
s u g g e s ts

t h a t t h e r e c e s s io n e n d e d e a r l ie r t h is y e a r , t h o u g h m u c h o f t h e g e n e r a l p u b lic t h in k s o t h e r w is e . O n e p la u s ib le e x p la n a t io n
f o r t h is
to

s k e p t ic is m

b o tto m ,

is t h a t t h e e m p lo y m e n t - r e la t e d

th e p u b lic

p e r c e iv e s

c o n t in u in g

s e r ie s

r e c e s s io n ,

o fte n

la g

d e s p it e

o t h e r in d ic a t o r s .

o th e r

s ig n a ls

to

th e

S in c e

s o m e o f th e s e

s e r ie s h a v e y e t

co n tra ry .

R e c e n t T r o u g h s in S e le c te d E c o n o m ic S e rie s U s e d to D a te C y c lic a l T u r n in g P o in ts
Ja n u a ry

1991

D is p o s a b le P e r s o n a l I n c o m e ( 1 9 8 2 d o lla r s )
P e r s o n a l C o n s u m p t io n

E x p e n d it u r e s

(1 9 8 2

d o lla r s )

R e t a i l S a le s ( 1 9 8 2 d o l l a r s )
F e b ru a ry

F i n a l S a le s

( m id d le m o n t h o f q u a r t e r ;

1982

d o lla r s )

P e r s o n a l I n c o m e ( 1 9 8 2 d o lla r s )
P e rs o n a l In c o m e L e s s T ra n s fe r P a y m e n ts
M a rch

( 1 9 8 2 d o lla r s )

I n d e x o f C o in c id e n t I n d ic a t o r s
I n d u s t r ia l P r o d u c t io n
M a n u f a c t u r in g

A p r il

and T ra d e

E m p lo y e e H o u r s in
N o n fa rm

S a le s ( 1 9 8 2 d o l l a r s )

N o n fa rm

E s t a b lis h m e n t s

E m p lo y m e n t ( e s t a b lis h m e n t s u r v e y )

W a g e s a n d S a la r ie s in G o o d s - P r o d u c in g
M ay

A v e r a g e W e e k ly
G N P
V a lu e

( m id d le m o n t h
o f Goods

Ju n e

C iv ilia n

?

E m p lo y e e s in

o f q u a rte r;

U n e m p lo y m e n t R a t e

9


V ie w s


1 9 8 2 d o lla r s )

N o n fa rm

1 9 8 2 d o lla r s )

( in v e r t e d b a s is )

G o o d s - P r o d u c in g

E m p lo y m e n t in
T o ta l C iv ilia n

( 1 9 8 2 d o lla r s )

( i n v e r t e d b a s is )

O u t p u t ( m id d le m o n t h o f q u a r t e r ;

N u m b e r o f P e r s o n s U n e m p lo y e d

9

I n d u s t r ie s

I n s u r e d U n e m p lo y m e n t R a t e

( i n v e r t e d b a s is )
I n d u s t r ie s

A c t iv it ie s

( h o u s e h o ld

su rve y)

E m p lo y m e n t

— K e v in

T H E
F E D E R A L
R E S E R V E
H A N K o f
ST. L O IT S

e x p r e s s e d d o n o t n e c e s s a r ily r e f le c t o f f ic i a l p o s it io n s o f t h e F e d e r a l R e s e r v e S y s t e m .

L .

K lie s e n

C o n s u m e r P r i c e I n d e x - All U r b a n C o n s u m e r s
Percent Change From Previous Year
Seasonally Adjusted
Percent

Percent

8

1986

1985

1987

1989

1988

1991

1990

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

C o n s u m e r

P r i c e

I n d e x

(C o m p o u n d e d A n n u a l R a te s o f C h a n g e )
T t r a ir a l
M on th

I n i t i a l M onth
2 -9 0

3 -9 0

4 -9 0

3 -9 0

3 .8
3 .2

2 .4

4 .3

4 .1

4 .7

8 -9 0

9 -9 0 1 0 -9 0 1 1 -9 0 1 2 -9 0

1 9 8 2 -8 4 * 1 0 0
1 -9 1

2 -9 1

3 -9 1

4 -9 1

5 -9 1

6 -9 1

7 -9 1

8 -9 1

1 .9

6 -9 0

7 -9 0

2
.8

5 -9 0

6 -9 0

4 .8

4 -9 0

5 -9 0

1 2 8 .7
1 2 9 .0
1 2 9 .2
7 .7

1 3 0 .0

2 -9 1

6 4 .7
.2
0
6 7 . 6 7 . 6 1 .6
.2
6 6 6 8 8 1 .1 9 . 5
.0 .2 .8 .1 .2 0
.0 .1
6 6 .3 6 .9 8 8 9 .2 8 .5
.1
6 6 .5 7 .2 7 .2 7 .8 6 .9
.0
5 .9
5 .6
5 .7
6 6 .7 6 6 .9 6
.1
.6
.0
5 .6
5 .7
6 6 6 .4 6 .7 5 .9
.0 .6
5 .4
5 .4
.1
5 .7
6 5 .9 6 5 .4
.1

3 -9 1

4 .9

4 .9

5 .1

5 .4

5 .2

5 .2

4 .5

3 .7

2 .9

2 .7

2 .4

0 .9

- 0 .9

4 -9 1

4 .7

4 .7

4 .9

5 .2

4 .9

4 .9

4 .2

3 .5

2 .9

2 .7

2 .5

1 .5

0 .9

7 -9 0
8 -9 0
9 -9 0
1 0 -9 0
1 1 -9 0
1 2 -9 0
1 -9 1

4 .4

4 .3

5 .4

5 .5

4 .7

1 3 0 .5
1 3 1 .6
1 3 2 .6
7 .5

1 3 3 .4

5 .6

3 .7

4 .9

3 .7

3 .6

5 .1

4 .3

4 .6

5 .5

4 .6

3 .9

3 .9

4 .1

2 .7

1 3 3 .8

5 -9 1

4 .7

4 .6

4 .8

5 .0

4 .8

4 .8

4 .2

3 .5

3 .0

6 -9 1

4 .5

4 .5

4 .6

4 .8

4 .6

4 .6

4 .0

3 .4

2 .9

7 -9 1

4 .4

4 .4

4 .5

4 .7

4 .5

4 .4

3 .9

3 .4

2 .9

8 -9 1

4 .3

4 .3

4 .4

4 .6

4 .3

4 .3

3 .8

3 .3

2 .9

2
.8
2
.8
2
.8

9 -9 1

4 .3

4 .3

4 .4

4 .6

4 .3

4 .3

3 .9

3 .4

3 .0

3 .0

2 -9 0

3 -9 0

4 -9 0

5 -9 0

6 -9 0

7 -9 0

8 -9 0

The C P I i s

2 .9

1 3 4 .2

2 .7
2 .7
2 .7
2 .7
2 .9

9 -9 0 1 0 -9 0 1 1 -9 0 1 2 -9 0

1 3 4 .8
1 3 5 .1

2 1
.0 .8
2 2
.1 .0
2 2
.2 .1
2 .3
2
.2
2 2
.6 .6
1 -9 1

2 -9 1

1 3 5 .0
2 .7

1 3 5 .3

3 .2

3 .6

3 .0

3 .1

2 .7

2 .9

3 .0

2 .7

1 3 5 .7
1 3 6 .0
2 .7

1 3 6 .3

2 .9

2 .9

2 .7

2 .7

2 .7

3 .1

3 .2

3 .1

3 .3

3 .6

4 .5

3 -9 1 - 4 - 9 1

5 -9 1

6 -9 1

7 -9 1

8 -9 1

1 3 6 .6
1 3 7 .1

f o r a l l u rb a n c o n s u m e rs .




P re p a re d b y F e d e ra l R e s e rv e Bank o f S t . L o u is
O cto b e r 1 7 , 1991

C o n s u m e r

P r i c e

I n d e x

-

F o o d

( C o m p o u n d e d A n n u a l R a le s o f C h a n g e )
T e r m in a l
M o n th

1 98 2-84 *1 00

I n i t i a l M o n th
2 -9 0

3 -9 0

4 -9 0

5 -9 0

6 -9 0

7 -9 0

8 -9 0

3 -9 0

0 .5
0 .3

-0 .5

6 -9 0

2 .3

2 .5

4 .2

3 .1

3 .5

5 .0

7 .5

3 .2

3 .5

4 .6

6
.2

5 .1

3 .3

3 .5

4 .4

5 .6

4 .6

3 .7

3 .7

5 -9 1

6 -9 1

7 -9 1

8 -9 1

3 .7

9 -9 0

4 -9 1

6 .5

8 -9 0

3 -9 1

8 .5

7 -9 0

2 -9 1

-0 .9

5 -9 0

1 -9 1

1
.8

4 -9 0

9 -9 0 1 0 -9 0 1 1 -9 0 1 2 -9 0

1 3 1 .3
1 3 1 .2

0
.0

1 3 1 .2
1 3 2 .1
1 3 2 .8
1 3 3 .2
1 3 3 .6

1 0 -9 0

3 .5

3 .7

4 .5

5 .4

4 .6

4 .0

4 .1

4 .6

1 1 -9 0

3 .7

3 .9

4 .6

5 .4

4 .8

4 .4

4 .6

5 .0

1 3 4 .1
5 .5

1 3 4 .7

1 2 -9 0

3 .5

3 .7

4 .3

4 .9

4 .3

3 .8

3 .9

3 .9

3 .6

1
.8

1 -9 1

3 .8

4 .0

4 .6

5 .2

4 .7

4 .4

4 .6

4 .8

4 .9

4 .5

1 3 4 .9
7 .4

1 3 5 .7

2 -9 1

3 .3

3 .4

3 .9

4 .3

3 .8

3 .4

3 .3

3 .3

2 .9

3 -9 1

3 .2

3 .4

3 .7

4 .1

3 .7

3 .3

3 .2

3 .2

2 .9

2 2 -2 .6
.1 .2
.0
2 2 .4 0
.2

2 .7

4 -9 1

3 .7

3 .8

4 .2

4 .6

4 .2

3 .9

4 .0

4 .0

3 .9

3 .6

4 .1

3 .0

5 .9

9 .2

5 -9 1

3 .4

3 .5

3 .9

4 .2

3 .8

3 .5

3 .5

3 .5

3 .3

3 .0

3 .2

2
.2

3 .9

4 .5

0
.0

6 -9 1

3 .6

3 .7

4 .0

4 .4

4 .0

3 .8

3 .8

3 .8

3 .7

3 .5

3 .7

3 .0

4 .5

5 .1

3 .1

6 .3

7 -9 1

2 .9

3 .0

3 .3

3 .5

3 .1

2 .9

2
.8

2 .7

2 .5

2 2
.1 .2

-0 .3

- 0 .4

- 6 .8

8 -9 1

2 2 2
.6 .6 .8

3 .0

2 .7

2 .4

2 .3

- 1 .1

- 1 .5

- 5 .1

- 3 .5

9 -9 1

2 .5

2 .5

2 .7

2 .9

2 .5

2 .3

-0 .7

- 0 .9

-3 .2

- 1 .3

0 .9

2 -9 0

3 -9 0

4 -9 0

5 -9 0

6 -9 0

7 -9 0

4 -9 1

5 -9 1

6 -9 1

7 -9 1

8 -9 1

2 1 .9
.1
2 2 1
.1 .0 .8

8 -9 0

1 .5

2 2
.1 .0
0 1 0 .9
.6 .2
0 .7
1 0 .9
.1

1 .4

9 -9 0 1 0 -9 0 1 1 -9 0 1 2 -9 0

1 3 5 .7

1 .3

1 .4

1 .4

1 3 5 .4

1 -9 1

2 -9 1

3 -9 1

1 3 6 .7
1 3 6 .7
1 3 7 .4
1 3 6 .6
1 3 6 .2
1 3 6 .3

P r e p a r e d b y F e d e r a l R e s e r v e Bank o f S t . L o u is
O c to b e r 1 7 , 1991

C o n s u m e r

P r i c e

I n d e x

-

E n e r g y

(C o m p o u n d e d A n n u a l R a te s o f C h a n g e )
T e r m in a l
M o n th

I n i t i a l H o n th
2 -9 0

3 -9 0

-4 .2

5 -9 0

-4 .0

6 -9 0

-1 .2

7 -9 0

-1 .7

4 -9 0

5 -9 0

6 -9 0

7 -9 0

8 -9 0

9 -9 0 1 0 -9 0 1 1 -9 0 1 2 -9 0

1 98 2 -8 4 * 1 0 0
1 -9 1

2 -9 1

3 -9 1

4 -9 1

5 -9 1

6 -9 1

7 -9 1

8 -9 1

-8 .3

4 -9 0

3 -9 0

9 6 .8

0
.0
- 1 .8

9 6 .8
-3 .7

1 1 .9
.2
0 0
.0 .0

9 6 .5
7 .7
1 .9

9 7 .1
-3 .6

9 6 .8

8 -9 0

7 .3

1 0 .7

1 3 .6

2 .0
0

2 6 .7

6 6 .5

9 -9 0

1 6 .2

2 .8
0

2 5 .5

3 4 .0

4 4 .2

7 6 .4

8 .8
6

1 0 -9 0

2 1 .3

2 6 .3

3 1 .3

3 9 .6

4 9 .0

7 2 .3

7 5 .3

6 4 .4

1 1 -9 0

1 9 .4

2 3 .5

2 7 .2

3 3 .3

3 9 .1

5 2 .4

4 8 .0

3 1 .7

1 2 -9 0

1 6 .7

1 9 .9

1 -9 1
2 -9 1

1 .0 1 4 .3
2
6 8
.6 .0

11
0 .0
1 0 6 .4
1 1 0 .9
5 .5

1 1 1 .4

2 .6
2

2 6 .9

3 0 .4

3 8 .6

3 2 .4

1 8 .0

1 6 .0

1 8 .7

2 0 .4

2 4 .9

1 8 .0

5 .2

8 .9

1 0 .4

1 0 .7

1 2 .9

5 .8

- 5 .5 -1 7 .8 -2 4 .3 - 3 2 .4 - 3 8 .5

0
.0

-5 .3

1 1 0 .9

- 9 .4 - 1 6 .0 - 2 5 .6

1 0 8 .2
1 0 3 .9

3 -9 1

3 .5

4 .5

5 .0

5 .9

5 .7

6 .9

0 .3

4 -9 1

2
.6

3 .5

3 .8

4 .5

4 .2

5 .1

-0 .7

• 9 .3 - 1 7 .9 - 2 1 .9 -2 5 .6 -2 5 .6 - 1 8 .1

5 -9 1

3 .6

4 .5

4 .9

5 .6

5 .4

6 .4

3 .4

3 .6

4 .2

3 .9

4 .6

2 .9

3 .0

3 .5

3 .2

3 .8

11
0 .2

- 9 . 5 - 1 9 .7 - 2 5 .0 - 3 0 .7 -3 3 .1 - 2 7 .1

1
.2

1 0 1 .9

- 7 .5

4 .2

-0 .1

- 6 .8 - 1 3 .2 - 1 5 .6 - 1 7 .2 - 1 5 .4

-8 .4

- 1 .2

2 .4 - 1 1 . 2

-0 .5

- 6 .6 -1 2 .3 -1 4 .3 - 1 5 .5 -1 3 .7

- 7 .7

- 2 .1

0
.0

- 6 .2 - 1 1 .4 - 1 3 .1 - 1 4 .0 -1 2 .2

- 6 .8

-2 .1

-4 .8

2
.6
2
.2

8 -9 1

1 .9

2 .5

2 .7

3 .1

2
.8

3 .3

-0 .7

9 -9 1

2 .4

3 .1

3 .3

3 .7

3 .4

4 .0

0 .3

2 -9 0

3 -9 0

4 -9 0

5 -9 0

6 -9 0

7 -9 0

8 -9 0




1 0 0 .5
1 8 .1

- 6 .3 - 1 3 .5 -1 6 .3 - 1 8 .4 -1 6 .5

7 -9 1

6 -9 1

-8 .0

- 9 .4 -1 0 .8 -1 1 .4

-9 .4

- 4 .3

9 -9 0 1 0 -9 0 1 1 -9 0 1 2 -9 0

1 -9 1

2 -9 1

0
.2
3 -9 1

1 0 0 .9

-8 .0

-4 .7

-0 .6

-6 .1

- 3 .5

1 .9

- 1 .8

4 -9 1

5 -9 1

1
.6
6 -9 1

1 0 0 .5
-2 .4
4 .9
7 -9 1

1 0 0 .3

1 .6
2

1 0 1 .3

8 -9 1

P re p a re d b y F e d e ra l R e se rv e Bank o f S t . L o u is
O cto b e r 1 7 , 1991

3

P r o d u c e r Price Ind e x — Finished G o o d s
Percent Change From Previous Year
Seasonally Adjusted
Percent

Percent

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

P r o d u c e r

P

r i c e

I n d e x

-

F in is h e d

G o o d s

(C o m p o u n d e d A n n u a l R a te s o f C h a n g e )
T e r a in a l
M onth

I n i t i a l M o n th
2 -9 0

3 -9 0

3 -9 0

-1 .0
0 .7

1 .5

6 -9 0

0 .5

7 -9 0

1
.2

6 -9 0

7 -9 0

8 -9 0

9 -9 0 1 0 -9 0 1 1 -9 0 1 2 -9 0

-1 .0

5 -9 0

5 -9 0

- 1 .0

4 -9 0

4 -9 0

198 2 * 100
1 -9 1

2 -9 1

3 -9 1

4 -9 1

5 -9 1

6 -9 1

7 -9 1

8 -9 1

1 1 7 .3
1 1 7 .2
4 .2

1 1 7 .6

2 0
.1 .0
2 2
.8 .1

1 1 7 .6
4 .2

1 1 8 .0

8 -9 0

3 .3

5 .5

5 .9

9 .0

1 4 .1

9 -9 0

5 .0

7 .5

8 .4

1 1 .3

1 5 .1

1 6 .2

1 0 -9 0

6 .3

8 .9

9 .9

1 2 .5

1 5 .4

1 6 .1

1 6 .0

8 .3

9 .0

1 0 .9

1 2 .7

1 1 -9 0

6
.2

1 2 -9 0

5 .0

5 .7

1 -9 1

4 .7

2 -9 1
3 -9 1

1 1 9 .3

10
2 .8
1 2 2 .3

12
2 .8

1 2 .3

1 0 .4

9 .0

7 .7

5 .1

0
.0

- 4 .8

5 .2

6 6 .9 8
.6
.2
6 6 7 .1
.0 .2

5 .0

7 .6

6 .4

4 .0

0 .3

- 1 .9

3 .5

3 .9

4 .4

4 .4

5 .0

5 .1

3 .7

1 .4

-1 .9

- 4 .2

- 3 .9

- 8 .5

3 .0

3 .3

3 .7

3 .7

4 .1

4 .1

2 .7

0 .7

- 2 .1

-3 .9

- 3 .5

-5 .7

- 2 .9

1 2 2 .3

1
.0

1 2 2 .4
1 2 1 .5

11
2 .2

4 -9 1

2
.8

3 .1

3 .5

3 .4

3 .8

3 .7

2 .5

0 .7

-1 .6

-2 .9

- 2 .4

-3 .5

-1 .0

5 -9 1

3 .1

3 .4

3 .7

3 .7

4 .0

4 .0

2 .9

1 .4

-0 .6

- 1 .5

- 0 .8

-1 .2

1 .3

3 .5

6
.1

6 -9 1

2 .5

2
.8

3 .1

-1 .1

- 1 .9

- 1 .5

-1 .9

- 0 .2

0 .7

0 .5
- 0 .7

7 -9 1

2
.2

2 .4

8 -9 1

2 .3

2 .5

9 -9 1

2
.2

2 .4

2 -9 0

3 -9 0

2 0 .7
.1
2 .7
2 1 0 .3
.6 .6
2 .7
2 .5
.8
2 2 2 .7 1 0 .5
.6 .8
2 .7
.6
.6
2 2 . 5 2 2 . 5 1 .7 0
.6

4 -9 0




3 .0

5 -9 0

3 .2

6 -9 0

3 .1

7 -9 0

8 -9 0

1
.0

1 2 1 .3
1 2 1 .9
-4 .8

1 2 1 .4

11
2 .1

-1 .3

- 2 .1

-1 .7

-2 .1

- 0 .8

- 0 .2

-0 .9

- 1 .5

-1 .1

-1 .4

- 0 .2

0 .4

0
.2

-1 .6

0
.0

3 .0

1 2 1 .4

-0 .7

- 1 .3

- 0 .9

-1 .1

0 .5

0 .4

-1 .0

0 .3

2 1
.0 .0

1 2 1 .5

9 - 9 0 1 0 -9 0 1 1 -9 0 1 2 -9 0

1 -9 1

3 -9 1

4 -9 1

5 -9 1

6 -9 1

0
.0
2 -9 1

-3 .9

-2 .9

7 -9 1

8 -9 1

P re p a re d b y F e d e ra l R e s e rv e Bank o f S t . L o u is
O cto b e r 1 1 , 1991

4

Civilian E m p l o y m e n t a n d U n e m p l o y m e n t R a t e
Seasonally Adjusted
P e rc e n t

M illio n s o f P e r s o n s

1986

1985

1987

1989

1988

1990

1991

Shaded area represents a period of business recession.
Percentages are annual rates of change for periods indicated.
Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

C

i v

i l i a

n

E m p lo y m e n t

(C o m p o u n d e d A n n u a l R a te s o f C h a n g e )
T e r a in a l
H o n th

I n i t i a l H o n th
2 -9 0

4 -9 0

1
.6
0
.1

5 -9 0

0 .7

6 -9 0

0 .4

7 -9 0

-0 .4

8 -9 0

3 -9 0

3 -9 0

4 -9 0

5 -9 0

6 -9 0

7 -9 0

8 -9 0

9 -9 0 1 0 -9 0 1 1 -9 0 1 2 -9 0

1 -9 1

2 -9 1

Thousands o f
P e rso n s
3 -9 1

4 -9 1

5 -9 1

6 -9 1

7 -9 1

8 -9 1
1 1 8 ,2 3 5

- 1 .5

0
.2
0
.0

1 1 8 ,0 9 0
1 .9

1 1 8 ,2 7 7

0 .7

- 0 .4

- 0 .9

- 0 .7

-2 .0

-3 .5

-0 .6

- 1 .1

- 1 .0

-2 .0

-2 .7

9 -9 0

-0 .3

-0 .6

- 0 .4

-1 .0

-1 .2

1 0 -9 0

-0 .4

- 0 .7

- 0 .6

- 1 .1

1 1 -9 0

-o .e

-1 .1

- 1 .0

1 2 -9 0

-0 .5

- 0 .7

1 -9 1

-1 .1

2 -9 1

1 1 8 ,2 3 7
1 1 7 ,8 8 2
-1 .9

1 1 7 ,6 9 0

-1 .3

0 2
.0 .0
-0 .5
0
.2

-1 .5

- 1 .5

- 1 .7

-1 .3

-1 .0

- 2 .5

-3 .5

- 0 .7

- 1 .0

- 1 .1

- 0 .6

- 0 .3

- 1 .0

-0 .8

1 .9

- 1 .3

- 1 .3

-1 .7

- 1 .9

- 1 .6

-1 .6

-2 .4

-2 .7

- 2 .3

- 6 .5

-1 .0

- 1 .2

- 1 .2

- 1 .5

-1 .7

-1 .4

- 1 .3

-2 .0

- 2 .1

-1 .6

- 3 .3

3 -9 1

-1 .0

-1 .3

-1 .2

- 1 .5

-1 .7

- 1 .4

- 1 .4

- 1 .9

-2 .0

- 1 .6

- 2 .8

4 -9 1

- 0 .5

- 0 .7

- 0 .6

-0 .8

- 0 .9

- 0 .5

-0 .4

-0 .7

-0 .6

1 1 7 ,8 8 3
1 1 7 ,7 3 3
1 1 7 ,3 8 6

0
.0

1 1 7 ,5 7 4

-0 .4

1 1 6 ,9 2 2

0
.0
- 0 .9

1
.6

1 1 6 ,9 1 8
- 1 .7
2 .5

1 1 6 ,7 5 4

6
.8

1 1 7 ,3 9 8

5 -9 1

-1 .0

- 1 .2

-1 .2

-1 .4

-1 .5

- 1 .3

- 1 .2

-1 .6

- 1 .7

- 1 .3

- 2 .0

- 0 .8

-1 .1

-0 .8

-7 .9

6 -9 1

-0 .«

- 0 .9

- 0 .9

- 1 .1

-1 .1

- 0 .9

- 0 .8

- 1 .1

- 1 .1

- 0 .7

- 1 .2

- 0 .1

- 0 .1

0 .4

-2 .6

3 .1

7 -9 1

- 0 .8

- 1 .0

- 0 .9

- 1 .1

-1 .2

- 1 .0

- 0 .9

-1 .2

- 1 .2

-0 .9

- 1 .3

-0 .4

-0 .4

-0 .1

- 2 .3

0
.6

8 -9 1

-0 .9

- 1 .1

-1 .1

- 1 .3

- 1 .3

-1 .1

-1 .1

-1 .4

- 1 .3

-1 .1

- 1 .5

- 0 .7

-0 .9

-0 .7

- 2 .5

-0 .6

9 -9 1

- 0 .5

- 0 .6

-0 .6

- 0 .7

- 0 .7

- 0 .5

-0 .4

-0 .6

- 0 .5

- 0 .2

-0 .5

0 .3

0 .4

0 .7

-0 .5

1 .5

2 -9 0

3 -9 0

4 -9 0

5 -9 0

6 -9 0

7 -9 0

8 -9 0

9 -9 0 1 0 -9 0 1 1 -9 0 1 2 -9 0

1 -9 1

2 -9 1

3 -9 1

4 -9 1

5 -9 1




1 1 6 ,5 9 1
1 1 6 ,8 8 4
-1 .8
-2 .4

1
.0
6 -9 1

1 1 6 ,7 1 2
-3 .0
2 .4
7 -9 1

1 1 6 ,4 1 6

8
.0

1 1 7 ,1 6 5

8 -9 1

P re p a re d b y F e d e ra l R e se rv e Bank o f S t . L o u is
O cto b e r 4 , 1991

Payroll E m p l o y m e n t
Seasonally Adjusted

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

Shaded area represents a period of business recession.
Percentages are annual rates of change for periods indicated.
Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

P

a y r o l l

E m

p lo y m e n t

(C o m p o u n d e d A n n u a l R a te s o f C h a n g e )
T e r m in a l
M on th
2 -9 0

3 -9 0

4 -9 0

5 -9 0

6 -9 0

7 -9 0

8 -9 0

I n i t i a l M o n th
P e rso n s
9 -9 0 1 0 -9 0 1 1 -9 0 1 2 -9 0

8 -9 0

1
.6
0 0
.8 .0
2 4 .1
.0
1 .9
1 1 2
.8 .8 .8
1 0 .9 1
.0
.2
0 .7
0 .5
0
.6

-0 .5

- 1 .5

0 .5

0 .3

-0 .5

- 1 .2

-0 .8

0 .3

0 0
.1 .1

- 0 .7

- 1 .2

- 1 .0

- 1 .0

0
.0

4 -9 1

5 -9 1

6 -9 1

7 -9 1

8 -9 1

- 1 .4

1 1 -9 0

3 -9 1

-0 .5

1 0 -9 0

2 -9 1

- 1 .2

9 -9 0

T housands o f
1 -9 1

3 -9 0
4 -9 0
5 -9 0
6 -9 0
7 -9 0

0 .4

1 0 9 ,9 3 3
1 0 9 /9 3 4
1 1 0 ,3 0 4
1 .4
-0 .2

1 1 0 ,4 3 5
-1 .8

1 1 0 ,2 6 9
1 1 0 ,1 6 0
1 1 0 ,1 1 3
1 0 9 ,9 8 2

- 0 .2

- 0 .3

-1 .0

- 1 .5

- 1 .4

-1 .4

-1 .9

- 2 .4

- 1 .8

- 2 .0

1 2 -9 0

- 0 .2

-0 .4

-0 .4

- 1 .1

- 1 .5

-1 .4

-1 .5

1 -9 1

-0 .4

-0 .6

- 0 .6

-1 .2

- 1 .6

-1 .5

-1 .6

2 -9 1

- 0 .6

- 0 .8

- 0 .8

-1 .4

-1 .7

- 1 .7

-1 .8

- 2 .1

3 -9 1

-0 .7

- 0 .9

- 1 .0

-1 * 5

-1 .8

- 1 .9

- 1 .9

4 -9 1

-0 .8

- 1 .0

-1 .1

- 1 .5

-1 .8

- 1 .8

- 1 .9

1 0 9 ,7 6 1
- 1 .5

1 0 9 ,6 2 1

- 1 .9

-2 .2

-2 .2

- 2 .2

- 2 .5

-2 .2

-2 .3

- 2 .3

- 2 .6

-2 .8

- 2 .8

-2 .1

-2 .3

- 2 .2

-2 .4

-2 .5

-2 .3

1 0 9 ,4 1 8
-2 .8

1 0 9 ,1 6 0
1 0 8 ,9 0 2
-1 .8

1 0 8 ,7 3 6

5 -9 1

- 0 .7

- 0 .8

- 0 .9

-1 .3

- 1 .5

-1 .5

- 1 .5

- 1 .7

- 1 .7

- 1 .6

- 1 .6

- 1 .4

-1 .0

-0 .1

1 .7

1 0 8 ,8 8 7

6 -9 1

-0 .6

-0 .8

-0 .8

-1 .2

-1 .4

- 1 .4

- 1 .4

- 1 .5

- 1 .5

- 1 .4

- 1 .3

- 1 .2

- 0 .8

-0 .1

0 0
.8 .0

1 0 8 ,8 8 5

-0 .1

0 .5

7 -9 1

-0 .6

-0 .7

-0 .8

-1 .1

- 1 .3

-1 .3

-1 .3

- 1 .4

-1 .4

-1 .2

-1 .2

-1 .0

- 0 .7

8 -9 1

- 0 .5

-0 .6

- 0 .7

- 1 .0

- 1 .2

-1 .1

-1 .1

- 1 .2

-1 .1

- 1 .0

- 0 .9

-0 .8

- 0 .4

9 -9 1

-0 .5

- 0 .6

-0 .6

-0 .9

-1 .1

- 1 .0

- 1 .0

-1 .0

- 1 .0

-0 .9

-0 .8

- 0 .6

-0 .3

2 -9 0

3 -9 0

4 -9 0

5 -9 0

6 -9 0

7 -9 0

8 -9 0

9 - 9 0 1 0 -9 0 1 1 -9 0 1 2 -9 0

1 -9 1

2 -9 1




-0 .2

0 0 0
.1 .6 .2
.2
0 0 .5 0
.1
3 -9 1

4 -9 1

5 -9 1

-0 .3

1 0 8 ,8 5 9

0 .3

0 .9

0 .3

0
.6

6 -9 1

7 -9 1

1 0 8 ,9 3 6
0 .3

1 0 8 ,9 6 0

8 -9 1

P re p a re d b y F e d e ra l R e s e rv e Bank o f S t . L o u is
O cto b e r 4 , 1991

6

S e r v ic e - P r o d u c in g

E m

p lo y m

e n t

(C o m p o u n d e d A n n u a l R a te s o f C h a n g e )
T e r m in a l
M o n th

I n i t i a l M onth
2 -9 0

3 -9 0

2 .3

4 -9 0

5 -9 0

6 -9 0

7 -9 0

8 -9 0

9 -9 0 1 0 -9 0 1 1 -9 0 1 2 -9 0

1 -9 1

2 -9 1

3 -9 1

4 -9 1

5 -9 1

T h o u sa n d s o f
P e rso n s
6 -9 1

7 -9 1

8 -9 1

3 .2

4 -9 0

3 -9 0

8 4 ,6 7 8
1 .3

8 4 ,7 6 9

5 -9 0

3 .4

3 .5

5 .7

6 -9 0

3 .2

3 .2

4 .1

7 -9 0

2 .3

6 -9 0

2 2 .3
.0
1 1 1
.8 .6 .6

9 -9 0

1 .7

1 .4

1 .4

8 5 ,1 6 3

2
.6
0
.6

- 1 .4

0 .3

-0 .8

0 .4

6 -9 1

1 1
.2 .2
1 .3
1 1 0 .3
.1 .0
.8 .2
1 0 .9 0 0
.1
.1
1 0 0 .7 0
.0 .8
0 0 0 .5 - 0 .1
.8 .6
0 0 .4 0 . 3 - 0 . 2
.6
0 -0 .3
.2
0 .5
0 .3
0 0 .4 0 . 3 - 0 . 1
.6
0 0 .4 0 . 3 - 0 . 1
.6

7 -9 1

0 .5

1 0 -9 0
1 1 -9 0
1 2 -9 0
1 -9 1
2 -9 1
3 -9 1
4 -9 1
5 -9 1

0 .3

1 .5

0 .3

0 .3

8 -9 1

0 .5

0 .4

0 .3

9 -9 1

0 .5

0 .4

0 .3

2 -9 0

3 -9 0

4 -9 0

-0 .1

0
.0
0
.0
5 -9 0

8 5 ,3 4 2

-0 .3
-0 .2
- 0 .2
-0 .2

8 5 ,2 4 2
8 5 ,2 2 3

-0 .3

0 0 .7
.2
.1
0 0 .4 0
.2
.1 .0
0 0 .3 0 0
.1
0 0 - 0 .1 - 0 .2
.0 .1
0 0 -0 .1 - 0 .2
.0 .0

8 5 ,2 7 1
8 5 ,2 7 7
8 5 ,2 8 0
-0 .5

8 5 ,2 4 6

- 0 .3

- 0 .1

-0 .4

- 0 .2

-0 .2

-0 .4

- 0 .5

- 0 .7

-0 .9

-1 .6

- 0 .5

- 0 .4

- 0 .4

-0 .6

- 0 .7

- 0 .9

-1 .0

-1 .5

- 1 .3

- 0 .6

-0 .5

- 0 .5

-0 .7

- 0 .8

- 0 .9

-1 .1

- 1 .4

-1 .3

-0 .4

-0 .3

-0 .3

-0 .4

-0 .5

-0 .6

- 0 .6

-0 .7

-0 .4

- 0 .3

- 0 .2

-0 .2

-0 .3

-0 .3

- 0 .4

-0 .4

-0 .4

-0 .1

-0 .3

-0 .2

-0 .2

-0 .3

-0 .3

- 0 .4

- 0 .4

-0 .4

- 0 .2

- 0 .1

- 0 .2

-0 .2

-0 .3

-0 .2

- 0 .2

-0 .1

- 0 .1

- 0 .1

- 0 .1

- 0 .1

9 -9 0 1 0 -9 0 1 1 -9 0 1 2 -9 0

1 -9 1

-0 .2

-0 .2

-0 .1

-0 .2

- 0 .1

6 -9 0

7 -9 0

0
.0
8 -9 0

8 5 ,2 3 7
8 5 ,1 2 1
8 5 ,0 2 5
- 1 .2

0
.1

8 4 ,9 4 2
1 .4

8 5 ,0 4 0

1 0
.1 .8
0 0 0 -0 .5
.1 .6 .1
0 0 .3 0 0 .4 0 0
.0
.6
.2 .8
0 0 .4 0 . 7 0 .5 0 .4 0
.1
.8

2 -9 1

8 5 ,0 9 3

0 .3

3 -9 1

4 -9 1

5 -9 1

6 -9 1

7 -9 1

8 5 ,0 6 1
8 5 ,1 1 6
0 .9

8 5 ,1 7 7

8 -9 1

P r e p a r e d b y F e d e r a l R e s e r v e Bank o f S t . L o u is
O c to b e r 4 , 1991

G o o d s - P r o d u c in g

E m

p lo y m

e n t

(C o m p o u n d e d A n n u a l R a te s o f C h a n g e )
T e r m in a l
M o n th

I n i t i a l M on th
2 -9 0

3 -9 0

4 -9 0

5 -9 0

6 -9 0

7 -9 0

8 -9 0

9 -9 0 1 0 -9 0 1 1 -9 0 1 2 -9 0

1 -9 1

2 -9 1

3 -9 1

4 -9 1

5 -9 1

6 -9 1

7 -9 1

8 -9 1

3 -9 0

- 3 .9

4 -9 0

-4 .1

- 4 .2

5 -9 0

-3 .1

- 2 .7

-1 .1

6 -9 0

- 2 .9

-2 .5

- 1 .7

-2 .3

7 -9 0

-2 .9

-2 .7

- 2 .2

- 2 .7

-3 .1

8 -9 0

-3 .1

-3 .0

- 2 .7

-3 .2

- 3 .7

-4 .2

9 -9 0

-3 .3

- 3 .2

-3 .1

-3 .5

-3 .9

- 4 .4

-4 .5

1 0 -9 0

- 3 .7

-3 .7

-3 .6

- 4 .1

- 4 .6

- 5 .0

-5 .5

-6 .4

1 1 -9 0

- 4 .5

-4 .6

-4 .6

-5 .2

-5 .8

-6 .4

- 7 .1

- 8 .4 - 1 0 .4

1 2 -9 0

- 4 .5

- 4 .6

- 4 .7

-5 .2

-5 .6

- 6 .1

-6 .6

-7 .3

- 7 .8

- 5 .1

1 -9 1

- 5 .0

- 5 .1

-5 .2

-5 .7

-6 .1

- 6 .6

-7 .1

- 7 .8

-8 .2

-7 .1

-9 .1

2 -9 1

-5 .1

- 5 .2

-5 .3

-5 .8

-6 .2

-6 .7

-7 .1

-7 .6

- 7 .9

-7 .0

- 8 .0

-6 .8

3 -9 1

- 5 .3

-5 .5

-5 .6

- 6 .0

-6 .4

- 6 .8

-7 .2

- 7 .6

-7 .9

-7 .2

-7 .9

- 7 .3

-7 .8

4 -9 1

-5 .2

-5 .4

-5 .4

-5 .8

- 6 .2

-6 .5

- 6 .8

-7 .1

-7 .2

- 6 .6

-7 .0

-6 .2

- 6 .0

-4 .1

5 -9 1

- 4 .7

-4 .8

-4 .8

-5 .1

-5 .4

-5 .6

-5 .8

- 5 .9

- 5 .9

- 5 .1

- 5 .1

- 4 .1

-3 .2

- 0 .8

2 .7

6 -9 1

- 4 .6

-4 .7

-4 .7

-5 .0

- 5 .2

- 5 .4

- 5 .5

- 5 .6

- 5 .5

- 4 .8

-4 .7

-3 .8

-3 .1

- 1 .4

-0 .1

7 -9 1

-4 .3

-4 .4

-4 .4

- 4 .6

- 4 .8

- 4 .9

-5 .0

-5 -0

- 4 .9

-4 .2

-4 .0

- 3 .1

- 2 .4

- 1 .0

0
.1

-1 .2

0 .3

8 -9 1

-4 .0

-4 .0

-4 .0

-4 .2

-4 .4

-4 .5

-4 .5

- 4 .5

-4 .3

-3 .6

-3 .4

-2 .5

- 1 .8

- 0 .6

0 .3

-0 .5

0 .7

9 -9 1

-3 .9

-3 .9

-3 .9

-4 .1

- 4 .2

- 4 .3

-4 .3

-4 .3

- 4 .1

- 3 .4

- 3 .2

-2 .5

- 1 .8

-0 .8

-0 .1

-0 .8

-0 .2

-0 .4

-1 .8

2 -9 0

3 -9 0

4 -9 0

5 -9 0

6 -9 0

7 -9 0

8 -9 0

9 -9 0 1 0 -9 0 1 1 -9 0 1 2 -9 0

1 -9 1

2 -9 1

3 -9 1

4 -9 1

5 -9 1

6 -9 1

7 -9 1

T h o u sa n d s o f
P e rso n s

8 -9 1

2 5 ,2 5 5
2 5 ,1 6 5




2 5 ,1 4 1
2 5 ,0 9 3
2 5 ,0 2 7
2 4 ,9 3 7
2 4 ,8 4 2
2 4 ,7 0 5
2 4 ,4 8 1
2 4 ,3 7 5
2 4 ,1 8 1
2 4 ,0 3 9
2 3 ,8 7 7
2 3 ,7 9 4
2 3 ,8 4 7
-2 .7

2 3 ,7 9 2
2 3 ,7 9 8

1
.1

2 3 ,8 2 0
2 3 ,7 8 3

P re p a re d by F e d e ra l R e se rv e Bank o f S t . L o u is
O cto b e r 4 , 1991

7

C h a n g e i n t h e E m p l o y m e n t C o s t I n d e x a n d Its C o m p o n e n t s
Percent Change From Previous Year
Seasonally Adjusted
Percent

Percent

Benefits

y

\
i

/

\

/

\
\

f

/

\

1

./

1

Total 1
Compensation

1

\

/ /
1 /

^

\

S

/
" ■

✓

L

\

”

•— x

Wages and iSalaries
. /

^ / y y *

1985

1986

'

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

Total compensation is the sum of benefits and wages and salaries for private industry workers.
Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

E m

p lo y m

e n t

C o s t

I n d e x

-

T o t a l

C o m

p e n s a t io n

(C o m p o u n d e d A n n u a l R a te s o f C h a n g e )
T e r a in a l
Q u a r te r

I n i t i a l Q u a rte r
4 -8 6

1 -8 7

2 -8 7

3 -8 7

4 -8 7

1 -8 8

2 -8 8

3 -8 8

4 -8 8

1 -8 9

2 -8 9

J u n e 1989 » 100
3 -8 9

4 -8 9

1 -9 0

2 -9 0

3 -9 0

4 -9 0

1 -9 1

2 -9 1
9 0 .9

1 -8 7

3 .1

2 -8 7

3 .1

3 .1

3 -8 7

3 .4

3 .6

4 .0

4 -8 7

3 .4

3 .5

3 .7

3 .5

3 .8

4 .0

4 .2

4 .4

5 .2

4 .0

4 .2

4 .5

4 .6

5 .2

5 .2

3 -8 8

4 .0

4 .1

4 .3

4 .4

4 .7

4 .5

3 .8

4 -8 8

4 .1

4 .3

4 .5

4 .6

4 .8

4 .7

4 .4

5 .1

1 -8 9

4 .1

4 .3

4 .4

4 .5

4 .7

4 .6

4 .3

4 .6

4 .2

2 -8 9

4 .2

4 .3

4 .5

4 .6

4 .7

4 .6

4 .5

4 .7

4 .5

4 .9

18
-8
28
-8

9 1 .6
9 2 .5
9 3 .3
9 4 .5
9 5 .7
9 6 .6
9 7 .8
9 8 .8

10
0 .0

3 -8 9

4 .3

4 .4

4 .6

4 .6

4 .8

4 .7

4 .7

4 .9

4 .8

5 .1

5 .3

4 -8 9

4 .3

4 .4

4 .6

4 .6

4 .8

4 .7

4 .6

4 .8

4 .7

4 .9

4 .9

4 .4

1 0 1 .3

1 -9 0

4 .4

4 .5

4 .7

4 .7

4 .9

4 .8

4 .8

4 .9

4 .9

5 .1

5 .1

5 .0

5 .6

1 0 2 .4
1 0 3 .8

2 -9 0

4 .5

4 .6

4 .7

4 .8

4 .9

4 .8

4 .8

4 .9

4 .9

5 .1

5 .1

5 .0

5 .3

5 .1

3 -9 0

4 .5

4 .5

4 .7

4 .7

4 .8

4 .8

4 .7

4 .9

4 .8

4 .9

4 .9

4 .8

5 .0

4 .7

4 .3

4 -9 0

4 .4

4 .5

4 .6

4 .6

4 .7

4 .7

4 .6

4 .7

4 .7

4 .8

4 .7

4 .6

4 .7

4 .4

4 .0

3 .8

1 -9 1

4 .4

4 .5

4 .6

4 .6

4 .7

4 .7

4 .6

4 .7

4 .7

4 .7

4 .7

4 .6

4 .7

4 .4

4 .2

4 .2

4 .6

2 -9 1

4 .4

4 .5

4 .6

4 .7

4 .7

4 .7

4 .7

4 .7

4 .7

4 .8

4 .7

4 .7

4 .7

4 .5

4 .4

4 .4

4 .7

4 .9

3 -9 1

4 .4

4 .5

4 .6

4 .6

4 .7

4 .7

4 .6

4 .7

4 .7

4 .7

4 .7

4 .6

4 .7

4 .5

4 .4

4 .4

4 .6

4 .7

4 .4

4 -8 6

1 -8 7

2 -8 7

3 -8 7

4 -8 7

3 -8 8

4 -8 8

1 -8 9

2 -8 9

3 -8 9

4 -8 9

1 -9 0

2 -9 0

3 -9 0

4 -9 0

1 -9 1

2 -9 1

1 8 28
-8 -8

1 0 5 .1
1 0 6 .2
1 0 7 .2
1 0 8 .4
1 0 9 .7
1 1 0 .9

D ata a re fo r th e la s t ao n th o f q u a rte r.




P re p a re d b y F e d e ra l R e s e rv e Bank o f S t . L o u is
O cto b e r 2 9 , 1991

8

Industrial P r o d u c t i o n
Seasonally Adjusted
1987-100

1987-100

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

Shaded area represents a period of business recession.
Percentages are annual rates of change for periods indicated.
Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

I n

d u

s t r i a l

P r o d u c t io n

(C o m p o u n d e d A n n u a l R a te s o f C h a n g e )
T e r m in a l
M o n th

I n i t i a l M o n th
2 -9 0

3 -9 0

1 .7

4 -9 0

5 -9 0

6 -9 0

7 -9 0

8 -9 0

9 -9 0 1 0 -9 0 1 1 -9 0 1 2 -9 0

1987 - 100
1 -9 1

2 -9 1

3 -9 1

4 -9 1

5 -9 1

6 -9 1

7 -9 1

8 -9 1
1 0 8 .9

4 .5

4 -9 0

3 -9 0

1 0 8 .8

- 1 .1

5 -9 0

3 .4

2 6
.8 .8

6 -9 0

4 .5

4 .5

7 .4

8
.0

7 -9 0

4 .3

4 .2

6
.0

5 .6

8 -9 0

3 .7

3 .6

4 .8

4 .1

9 -9 0

3 .3

3 .1

4 .0

3 .3

1 0 -9 0

1 .9

1 2 1
.6 .0 .1

1 1 -9 0

- 0 .2

- 0 .8

1 2 -9 0

- 1 .4

- 2 .1

1 -9 1

-1 .9

- 2 .5

1 0 9 .4

10
1 .1
1 1 0 .4

3 .3

2 1
.2 .1
1 1 1
.8 .1 .1

1 1 0 .5

10
1 .6
1 0 9 .9

-0 .5

-1 .8

-3 .2

-2 .0

-3 .9

-5 .6

- 7 . 7 - 1 1 . 8 - 1 6 .1

-2 .2

- 3 .4

-5 .2

- 6 .8

- 8 .7 - 1 1 .7 - 1 3 .9 - 1 1 .5

- 2 .7

-3 .8

- 5 .4

- 6 .8

- 8 .3 - 1 0 .5 - 1 1 .5

-9 .1

-0 .8

-7 .3
1 0 8 .3

1 0 7 .2
- 6 .5

1 0 6 .6

2 -9 1

- 2 .6

- 3 .2

-3 .4

-4 .5

- 5 .9

-7 .2

- 8 .5 - 1 0 .3 -1 1 .0

-9 .3

-8 .1

-9 .7

3 -9 1

- 3 .0

- 3 .6

-3 .8

-4 .8

-6 .1

- 7 .2

-8 .4

- 9 . 9 - 1 0 .4

-8 .9

- 8 .0

-8 .7

- 7 .7

4 -9 1

-2 .4

-2 .9

- 3 .0

-3 .9

-5 .0

-5 .9

-6 .7

-7 .8

-7 .8

- 6 .1

-4 .7

-4 .1

-1 .1

5 .9

5 -9 1

- 1 .6

- 2 .0

- 2 .0

-2 .7

- 3 .7

- 4 .3

-4 .9

- 5 .6

- 5 .4

-3 .5

-1 .8

-0 .6

2 .7

8 .3

1 0 .7

6 -9 1

-0 .8

-1 .2

- 1 .2

-1 .8

-2 .5

-3 .1

- 3 .5

- 4 .0

-3 .5

-1 .6

4 .6

9 .1

1 0 .7

1 .6
0

7 -9 1

-0 .3

- 0 .6

- 0 .6

-1 .1

- 1 .8

-2 .2

-2 .5

-2 .8

-2 .3

-0 .4

5 .3

8
.8

9 .8

9 .4

8
.1

8 -9 1

-0 .3

-0 .6

- 0 .6

- 1 .0

- 1 .6

-2 .0

-2 .3

-2 .6

-2 .1

- 0 .4

4 .4

7 .0

7 .3

6
.2

4 .0

9 -9 1

-0 .2

-0 .5

- 0 .5

-0 .9

-1 .5

- 1 .8

-2 .0

- 2 .3

-1 .8

-0 .2

3 .9

6 6
.0 .0

4 .9

3 .0

2 -9 0

3 -9 0

4 -9 0

5 -9 0

6 -9 0

7 -9 0

8 -9 0

9 -9 0 1 0 -9 0 1 1 -9 0 1 2 -9 0

5 -9 1

6 -9 1




0 1
.2 .6
2
.6
1 .3
1 2 .3
.1
1 2
.1 .1
1 -9 1

1 0 5 .7

2 -9 1

1 0 5 .0

3 -9 1

1 0 5 .5

4 -9 1

1 0 6 .4
1 0 7 .3
1 0 8 .0

0
.0
0 1
.6 .1
7 -9 1

1 0 8 .0
1 0 8 .1

8 -9 1

P re p a re d by F e d e ra l R e se rv e Bank o f S t . L o u is
O cto b e r 1 7 , 1991

9

P e r s o n a l I n c o m e in 1 9 8 2 Dollars
Seasonally Adjusted
T r illio n s o f D o lla r s

T r illio n s o f D o lla r s

1985

1987

1986

1988

1989

1990

1991

The personal consumption expenditures deflator is used to calculate real personal income
Shaded area represents a period of business recession.
Percentages are annual rates of change for periods indicated.
Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
D

is p o s a b le

P e r s o n a l

I n c o m e

i n

1 9 8 2

D

o lla r s

(C o m p o u n d e d A n n u a l R a te s o f C h a n g e )
I n i t i a l H o n th

T e r a in a l
H on th
2 -9 0
3 -9 0

0
.0

4 -9 0

5 -9 0

6 -9 0

7 -9 0

8 -9 0

9 -9 0 1 0 -9 0 1 1 -9 0 1 2 -9 0

3 .3

4 -9 0

3 -9 0

5 -9 0
6 -9 0
7 -9 0

-0 .1

1 -9 1

2 -9 1

3 -9 1

4 -9 1

5 -9 1

6 -9 1

7 -9 1

B i l l i o n s o f D o lla r s
Ann ual R a te s
8 -9 1

2 ,9 0 8 . 7
-3 .1
-1 .7

0 -0 .2
.6
0 0
.8 .2

2 ,9 0 1 . 0
- 0 .2
1 .3
1 .3

2 ,9 0 0 . 4

2
.8
2
.1

2 ,9 0 7 . 1
1 .5

2 ,9 1 0 . 6

8 -9 0

-0 .3

- 1 .0

-0 .4

-0 .5

-2 .1

- 5 .5

9 -9 0

-0 .8

-1 .5

- 1 .2

- 1 .4

-2 .8

-4 .8

- 4 .1

1 0 -9 0

-1 .9

- 2 .6

- 2 .6

- 3 .0

-4 .4

- 6 .3

-6 .7

-9 .2

1 1 -9 0

-1 .4

-2 .0

-1 .8

-2 .1

- 3 .0

-4 .1

-3 .7

- 3 .5

2
.6

1 2 -9 0

-0 .7

-1 .2

- 0 .9

- 1 .0

-1 .6

-2 .2

-1 .4

- 0 .5

4 .2

2 ,8 9 6 . 8

2 8 6 .8
,8
2 ,8 6 3 . 7
2 ,8 6 9 . 9
5 .8

2 ,8 8 3 . 5

1 -9 1

-1 .6

- 2 .1

- 2 .0

-2 .2

- 2 .9

- 3 .6

- 3 .2

-3 .0

-0 .8

- 2 .5 -1 0 .2

2 -9 1

-1 .4

- 1 .9

- 1 .7

- 1 .9

- 2 .5

-3 .0

- 2 .6

-2 .3

-0 .5

-1 .5

-5 .0

0 .5

3 -9 1

- 1 .0

-1 .4

- 1 .2

-1 .3

- 1 .7

- 2 .1

-1 .6

-1 .2

0 .5

- 0 .1

-2 .0

2 .4

4 -9 1

-1 .0

-1 .4

- 1 .2

-1 .3

-1 .7

- 2 .0

5 -9 1

-0 .7

-0 .9

- 0 .8

- 0 .8

-1 .1

-1 .4

6 -9 1

- 0 .3

-0 .5

- 0 .3

- 0 .3

-0 .6

-0 .7

2 ,8 5 7 . 8

7 -9 1

-0 .3

-0 .5

- 0 .4

- 0 .4

-0 .6

-0 .8

8 -9 1

- 0 .2

-0 .4

- 0 .2

- 0 .2

- 0 .4

- 0 .6

9 -9 1

-0 .1

-0 .3

-0 .1

-0 .1

- 0 .3

-0 .4

1
.1
2
.0
-0 .5
0 .5
-0 .9
-0 .5
.8
0 1 .4 1 .3 0 . 5 2
.2
- 0 .2
.1
0 1 0 .9 0 . 3 2
.0 .1
-0 .3
0 1 1 0 .5 2
.2 .2 .1
.1
-0 .1
.1 .6 .1
0 0 .4 1 . 3 1 0 2
.0

2 -9 0

3 -9 0

4 -9 0

5 -9 0

6 -9 0

7 -9 0

8 -9 0




- 1 .6

-1 .2

0
.2
0
.8

-0 .3

-1 .8

9 -9 0 1 0 -9 0 1 1 -9 0 1 2 -9 0

1 -9 1

2 ,8 5 8 . 9
4 .4
1 .5

2 ,8 6 9 . 2
- 1 .4

2 ,8 6 5 . 9

2 .5

1
.6

4 .7

3 .4

3 .1

5 .3

2 .5
2 .4
2 .3
2 -9 1

2 ,8 7 6 . 9

6
.0

2 ,8 9 0 . 9

2 3 .1 2 . 3 - 1 . 2
.0
2 2 2 0 .3
.0 .8 .2
1 .9
2 2 0
.6 .1 .8
3 -9 1

4 -9 1

5 -9 1

6 -9 1

2 8 8 .0
,8
1 .9

2 ,8 9 2 . 5

1 .9

1 .9

7 -9 1

8 -9 1

2 ,8 9 7 . 0

P re p a re d b y F e d e ra l R e s e rv e Bank o f S t . L o u is
O cto b e r 3 0 , 1991

10

R et a i l S a l e s
Seasonally Adjusted
B illio n s o f D o lla r s

B illio n s o f D o lla r s

1986

1985

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

Shaded area represents a period of business recession.
The CPI is used to deflate retail sales data.
Percentages are annual rates of change for periods indicated.
Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
R

e

t a i l

S a le s

i n

1 9 8 2 - 8 4

D

o lla r s

(C o m p o u n d e d A n n u a l R a te s o f C h a n g e )
T e rn in a i
M o n th

I n i t i a l M onth
2 -9 0

3 -9 0

4 -9 0

5 -9 0

6 -9 0

7 -9 0

9 -9 0 1 0 -9 0 1 1 -9 0 1 2 -9 0

8 -9 0

3 -9 0

- 8 .6

4 -9 0

-8 .2
- 7 .2

- 6 .6

-5 .3

6 -9 0

- 4 .5

-3 .2

- 0 .7

- 4 .0

- 2 .8

-1 .1

1
.0

8 -9 0

-4 .3

-3 .5

-2 .4

-1 .4

- 4 .0

-3 .9

-3 .1

-2 .1

-1 .3

-3 .0

-3 .6

- 1 .1

1 0 -9 0

-4 .1

-3 .4

-2 .7

- 2 .2

-3 .6

-4 .2

-3 .3

-3 .6

- 2 .9

-2 .2

-1 .7

-2 .8

-3 .1

-2 .1

-2 .6

1 2 -9 0

-5 .8

- 5 .5

-5 .2

- 5 .2

-6 .7

- 7 .6

- 8 .0

1 -9 1

-7 .1

- 7 .0

- 6 .9

-7 .1

-8 .5

-4 .7

-4 .3

- 3 .9

-3 .8

- 4 .7

-5 .1

-5 .0

- 5 .7

- 5 .8

- 7 .8

3 -9 1

- 4 .0

- 3 .6

- 3 .3

- 3 .0

- 3 .8

-4 .0

-3 .8

- 4 .2

- 3 .9

- 5 .0

4 -9 1

-4 .2

- 3 .9

-3 .5

-3 .4

-4 .1

- 4 .3

- 4 .1

- 4 .5

-4 .3

-5 .3

5 -9 1

-3 .3

- 2 .9

-2 .5

-2 .3

-2 .8

-2 .9

-2 .5

- 2 .7

- 2 .3

-2 .8

6 -9 1

-3 .3

- 2 .9

-2 .5

-2 .3

-2 .8

-2 .9

-2 .6

-2 .8

-2 .4

-2 .8

7 -9 1

- 3 .0

- 2 .6

-2 .3

-2 .0

- 2 .5

-2 .5

-2 .2

-2 .3

-2 .0

- 2 .3

8 -9 1

-3 .4

-3 .0

-2 .7

-2 .6

-3 .0

-3 .1

-2 .9

-3 .0

-2 .8

-3 .1

9 -9 1

- 3 .0

- 2 .7

-2 .4

- 2 .2

-2 .6

-2 .6

-2 .3

-2 .5

-2 .2

- 2 .4

2 -9 0

3 -9 0

4 -9 0

5 -9 0

6 -9 0

7 -9 0

8 -9 0

9 -9 0 1 0 -9 0 1 1 -9 0 1 2 -9 0

6 -9 1

7 -9 1

8 -9 1

- 9 .6 - 1 0 .3 - 1 2 .5 - 1 4 .7 - 2 1 .4 -1 9 .0

2 -9 1

5 -9 1

-5 .5

1 1 -9 0

4 -9 1

-6 .0

9 -9 0

3 -9 1

4 .0

7 -9 0

2 -9 1

-7 .8

5 -9 0

M illio n s o f
D o lla r s
1 -9 1

1 1 6 ,4 3 4
1 1 5 ,6 4 9
1 1 5 ,1 2 6
1 1 5 ,5 0 5
- 1 .9

1 1 5 ,3 2 4
1 1 4 ,7 2 9
1 1 4 ,6 2 7
1 1 4 ,0 8 6
0 .5

1 1 4 ,1 3 4

- 1 0 .2 -1 2 .4 - 2 3 .7

1 1 1 ,5 8 7

1 .4

1 0 9 ,6 4 6
2 6 .8

1 1 1 ,8 3 7

2 1 4 .8 3 . 9
.2
0 7 .2 - 1 .4 - 6 .4
.0
.8 0
2 8 2 . 5 1 1 .8
.1 .1
.1 .1
1 5 .8 1 0 3 .6
.2
.2
1 5 .1 1 0 .5 3 .0
.2
-0 .2
2 - 0 .7 -1 .6 -0 .4
.8
0 - 0 . 7 0 .5
.0
3 .0
0 .3
1 -9 1

2 -9 1

3 -9 1

4 -9 1

1 1 2 ,1 9 8
1 1 1 ,5 7 9
1 1 2 ,5 3 5
-3 .1

1 1 2 ,2 3 7

-0 .7

1 .7

- 3 .8

-4 .2

- 9 .7

- 1 .9

-1 .5

-3 .1

4 .1

5 -9 1

6 -9 1

7 -9 1

8 -9 1

1 1 2 ,3 9 5
1 1 1 ,4 4 1
1 1 1 ,8 1 3

R e t a il s a le s d a ta d e fla te d b y C PI-U (1982-84= 100).




P re p a re d b y F e d e ra l R e s e rv e Bank o f S t . L o u is
O cto b er 1 1 , 1991
1 1

Inventories C o m p a r e d W i t h M o n t h l y Sales
Manufacturing and Trad«
Seasonally Adjusted

1.52

1.48

1.44

1—

I—

'—

I—

'-------1
-------'—

1985

I—

1986

'—

I—

r

1987

1988

1991

Shaded area represents a period of business recession.
Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

B u s in e s s

I n v e n t o r ie s

(C o m p o u n d e d A n n u a l R a te s o f C h a n g e )
T e r m in a l
M onth
2 -9 0

3 .1

3 .7

4 .1

1 0 -9 0

3 .2

3 .8

1 1 -9 0

3 .2

3 .7

6 -9 0
7 -9 0

1 2 -9 0
1 -9 1
2 -9 1
3 -9 1
4 -9 1
5 -9 1

7 -9 0

8 -9 0

9 -9 0

1 1 -9 0 1 2 -9 0

1 -9 1

2 -9 1

3 -9 1

4 -9 1

5 -9 1

6 -9 1

7 -9 1
8 1 0 ,0 2 4

9 -9 0

5 -9 0

6 -9 0

- 1 .1

8 -9 0

4 -9 0

5 -9 0

1

4 -9 0

©

3 -9 0

M
©

2 -9 0

0 1
.1 .2
1 2 3 .2
.1 .2
2 3 .3 4 .4 5 .6
.2
0 .7
1 1 0
.2 .1 .1
2 2 2 .9 2
.0 .6
.8
2 3 .4 3 .8 4 .0
.8

3 -9 0

M illio n s o f
D o lla r s

I n i t i a l M o n th
1 -9 0

8 1 0 ,8 3 0
8 1 2 ,9 7 6
8 1 6 ,6 6 7
8 1 3 ,1 1 8

- 5 .1
1 .5

8 .5

3 .5

8
.1

7 .6

4 .2

3 .9

7 .1

6 .4

5 .2

4 .2

4 .3

4 .1

6 .5

5 .9

5 .0

4 .8

4 .0

4 .1

3 .9

5 .8

5 .1

4 .3

3 .9

8 1 8 ,6 8 9
8 2 3 ,6 8 3
8 2 7 ,1 4 5

2 2 . 5 2 .7 2 2 3 . 4 2 . 4 1 - 0 . 1
.2
.6 .2
.2
2 2 . 9 3 .1 3 .0 2 . 7 3 . 9 3 .1 2 . 3 1
.6
.6
2 2 2 .3 2 . 3 1 .9 2 2 1 0 . 3
.0 .2
.8 .0 .1
0 .9
1 1 0 . 9 0 .4 1 0 - 0 . 8 - 1 . 8
.1 .1
.1 .2
0 0 . 7 0 .7 0 . 5 0 0 - 0 . 3 - 1 . 2 - 2 . 1
.6
.0 .6
0 0 0 - 0 .1 - 0 .6 - 0 .2 - 1 .0 - 1 .9 - 2 .8
.1 .2 .1

8 3 0 ,4 1 4
3 .0

8 3 2 ,4 6 4

- 2 .5

-7 .7

8 2 6 ,9 4 1

0 .5

-0 .7

6 .7

- 0 .8

-2 .0

0 .9

-3 .1

-4 .6

8 3 1 ,4 4 5
-4 .6

8 2 8 ,2 0 1

- 3 .5

- 8 .2 -1 1 .8

8 1 9 ,6 1 5

-3 .2

- 4 .4

- 3 .6

- 6 .8

-7 .9

-3 .9

- 3 .8

-4 .9

- 4 .4

- 7 .0

- 7 .7

-5 .6

8 1 6 ,8 9 3
- 7 .3

8 1 1 ,7 1 3

6 -9 1

- 0 .3

-0 .3

-0 .4

- 0 .6

-1 .1

- 0 .7

- 1 .5

- 2 .4

- 3 .2

- 4 .2

-5 .2

-4 .7

-6 .9

- 7 .4

- 6 .0

-7 .0

-6 .6

7 -9 1

- 0 .3

-0 .3

-0 .4

- 0 .6

- 1 .0

- 0 .7

- 1 .5

- 2 .2

- 2 .9

- 3 .8

-4 .6

- 4 .1

-5 .8

- 6 .1

-4 .6

- 4 .9

- 3 .6

-0 .4

8 -9 1

-0 .4

- 0 .3

-0 .4

- 0 .6

-1 .0

-0 .7

-1 .4

- 2 .1

- 2 .8

-3 .5

- 4 .2

- 3 .7

- 5 .2

- 5 .2

- 3 .9

- 3 .9

- 2 .7

- 0 .7

-0 .9

1 -9 0

2 -9 0

3 -9 0

4 -9 0

5 -9 0

6 -9 0

7 -9 0

8 -9 0

9 -9 0 1 0 -9 0 1 1 -9 0 1 2 -9 0

1 -9 1

2 -9 1

3 -9 1

4 -9 1

5 -9 1

6 -9 1

7 -9 1




8 0 7 ,1 0 5
8 0 6 ,8 0 2
8 0 6 ,1 7 7

P re p a re d b y F e d e ra l R e s e rv e Bank o f S t . L o u is
O cto b e r 1 5 , 1991

12

Gross National P r o d u c t
Seasonally Adjusted
T r illio n s o f D o lla r s

T r illio n s o f D o lla r s

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

Shaded area represents a period of business recession.
Percentages are annual rates of change for periods indicated.
Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

G r o s s

N

a t io n a l

P r o d u c t

i n

1 9 8 2

D

o

l l a r s

( C o m p o u n d e d A n n u a l R a te s o f C h a n g e )
T e r m in a l
Q u a rte r

I n i t i a l Q u a rte r
4 -8 6

1 -8 7

2 -8 7

3 -8 7

4 -8 7

1 -8 7

4 .7
4 .5

4 .2

4 -8 7

5 .0

4 .9

5 .3

5 .0

5 .3

5 .9

1 -8 9

2 -8 9

3 -8 9

4 -8 9

1 -9 0

2 -9 0

3 -9 0

4 -9 0

1 -9 1

B i l l i o n s o f D o lla r s
A n n u al R a te s
2 -9 1

6
.6

5 .0

4 -8 8

4 .2

3 -8 7

3 -8 8

5 .2

2 -8 7

1 8 28
-8 -8

5 .1

3 / 7 8 1 .2
3 / 8 2 0 .3
4 .1

3 / 8 5 8 .9
3 / 9 2 0 .7

18
-8
28
-8

4 .8

4 .7

4 .9

5 .1

4 .4

3 .6

3 -8 8

4 .5

4 .4

4 .4

4 .5

3 .8

3 .1

4 -8 8

4 .3

4 .1

4 .1

4 .1

3 .5

3 .0

2 .7

2 .7

1 -8 9

4 .2

4 .1

4 .1

4 .1

3 .6

3 .2

3 .0

3 .2

2 -8 9

3 .9

3 .8

3 .8

3 .7

3 .2

2 .9

2 .7

2 .7

2 1
.6 .6

3 -8 9

3 .7

3 .6

3 .5

3 .4

3 .0

2 .7

2 .5

2 .4

2 .3

4 -8 9
1 -9 0
2 -9 0
3 -9 0
4 -9 0
1 -9 1
2 -9 1
3 -9 1

3 /9 7 0 .2
4 / 0 0 5 .8
2 .7

4 / 0 3 2 .1
4 ,0 5 9 .3
3 .6

2 .3
2 2 1
.1 .0 .8
2 2 2 1 .9 1
.6 .2 .0
.8
2 .9
2 2 .7 2 .3 2 1 1 .7 1
.8
3 .1
.0 .8
.6
3 .0
2 2 . 7 2 2 . 3 2 1 1 .7 1 .5
.8
.6
.0 .8
2 .7
2 .5
2 .4
2 .3
1 .9
1 .7
1 .5
1 .3
1
.2
2 .4
2 2 1 . 9 1 1 . 3 1 0 .9 0 .7
.2 .1
.6
.1
2 2 1 .9 1 1 .4 1 0 .9 0 0
.2 .0
.8
.8 .6
.1
2 2 1 . 9 1 1 . 5 1 1 0 . 9 0 .7
.2 .1
.8
.2 .0
3 .4

3 .3

3 .2

3 .1

3 .3

3 .2

3 .1

3 .0

4 -8 6

1 -8 7

2 -8 7

3 -8 7

2 .7

4 -8 7

18 28
-8 -8

3 -8 8

4 -8 8

4 / 0 9 5 .7

1 .7

4 / 1 1 2 .2
1 .7

4 ,1 2 9 .7

1 1 0 .3
.2 .0
1 1 1 .7
.2 .0
1 1 0 1 0 .4
.2 .0 .8 .1
1 1 1 1 0 .9
.2 .1 .0 .2
.1
0 0 .7 0 .5 0 . 5 0
.8
0 - 0 .1 - 0 . 2 - 0 . 6
.2
0 .3
0 .3
0 - 0 .1 - 0 .2 - 0 . 6
.1
0 0 -0 .1
.2 .1
0 .5
0 .3

4 / 1 3 3 .2

1 .3

1 -8 9

2 -8 9

3 -8 9

4 -8 9

1 -9 0

4 / 1 5 0 .6
4 / 1 5 5 .1
1 .4

4 / 1 7 0 .0

- 0 .1

-1 .6

-1 .0

-2 .2

-2 .8

4 / 1 5 3 .4
4 / 1 2 4 .1

-0 .9

-1 .6

-1 .7

-0 .5

-0 .2

- 0 .6

-0 .3

0 .9

2 .4

2 -9 0

3 -9 0

4 -9 0

1 -9 1

2 -9 1

4 / 1 1 8 .9
4 / 1 4 3 .1

T h ird q u a rte r 1991 d a ta a r e ad van ce e s tim a te s .




P re p a re d b y F e d e ra l R e se rve Bank o f S t . L o u is
O c to b e r 29, 1991

13

Implicit Price Deflator
Percent Change Prom Previous Year
Seasonally Adjusted
Percent

Percent

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

I m

p

l i c i t

P r i c e

D

e f la t o r

(C o m p o u n d e d A n n u a l R a te s o f C h a n g e )
T e r m in a l
Q u a rte r

I n i t i a l Q u a rte r
4 -8 6

1 -8 7

1 -8 7

3 .3
3 .4

3 .3

4 -8 7

3 .0

4 -8 7

1 8 28
-8 -8

3 -8 8

4 -8 8

1 -8 9

2 -8 9

1 982 - 100
3 -8 9

4 -8 9

1 -9 0

2 -9 0

3 -9 0

4 -9 0

1 -9 1

2 -9 1

3 .1

3 -8 7

3 -8 7

3 .5

2 -8 7

2 -8 7

1 1 6 .1
1 1 7 .0
3 .5

1 1 8 .0

18
-8
28
-8

2 .9

2 2 1 .7
.8 .6
2 2 2
.8 .6 .2

3 .2

3 .1

3 .1

2 .9

3 .6

4 .4

3 -8 8

3 .4

3 .4

3 .4

3 .4

4 .0

4 .6

4 .7

4 -8 8

3 .5

3 .5

3 .6

3 .6

4 .1

4 .6

4 .7

4 .7

1 -8 9

3 .6

3 .6

3 .7

3 .7

4 .1

4 .4

4 .4

4 .3

3 .9

1 1 8 .5
2 .7

1 1 9 .3

10
2 .6
12
2 .0
1 2 3 .4
1 2 4 .6

2 -8 9

3 .6

3 .6

3 .7

3 .7

4 .1

4 .3

4 .3

4 .2

3 .9

3 .9

3 -8 9

3 .6

3 .6

3 .6

3 .7

3 .9

4 .1

4 .1

3 .9

3 .7

3 .6

4 -8 9

3 .6

3 .6

3 .7

3 .7

3 .9

4 .1

4 .0

3 .9

3 .7

3 .7

3 .5

3 .8

1 -9 0

3 .7

3 .7

3 .8

3 .8

4 .0

4 .2

4 .2

4 .1

3 .9

3 .9

3 .9

4 .3

4 .8

2 -9 0

3 .8

3 .8

3 .8

3 .9

4 .1

4 .2

4 .2

4 .2

4 .1

4 .1

4 .1

4 .4

4 .7

1 2 5 .8
3 .2

1 2 6 .8
1 2 8 .0
1 2 9 .5
4 .7

1 3 1 .0

3 -9 0

3 .8

3 .8

3 .8

3 .9

4 .1

4 .2

4 .2

4 .1

4 .0

4 .0

4 .0

4 .3

4 .4

4 .2

3 .7

4 -9 0

3 .7

3 .7

3 .8

3 .8

3 .9

4 .1

4 .0

3 .9

3 .9

3 .8

3 .8

4 .0

4 .0

3 .7

3 .2

2
.8

1 -9 1

3 .8

3 .8

3 .8

3 .9

4 .0

4 .2

4 .1

4 .1

4 .0

4 .0

4 .0

4 .2

4 .2

4 .1

3 .9

4 .0

5 .2

2 -9 1

3 .8

3 .8

3 .9

3 .9

4 .1

4 .2

4 .2

4 .1

4 .1

4 .1

4 .1

4 .2

4 .3

4 .2

4 .0

4 .2

4 .9

4 .5

3 -9 1

3 .7

3 .7

3 .8

3 .8

3 .9

4 .0

4 .0

3 .9

3 .8

3 .8

3 .8

3 .9

3 .9

3 .8

3 .6

3 .6

3 .8

3 .1

1 .8

4 -8 6

1 -8 7

2 -8 7

3 -8 7

4 -8 7

3 -8 8

4 -8 8

1 -8 9

2 -8 9

3 -8 9

4 -8 9

1 -9 0

2 -9 0

3 -9 0

4 -9 0

1 -9 1

2 -9 1

The d e f la t o r i s

1 8 28
- 8 -8

f o r G ro ss N a tio n a l P ro d u c t.




T h ird q u a rte r 1991

1 3 2 .2
1 3 3 .1
1 3 4 .8
1 3 6 .3
1 3 6 .9

d a ta a re ad van ce e s tim a te s .
P re p a re d b y F e d e ra l R e s e rv e Bank o f S t . L o u is
O cto b e r 2 9 , 1991

14

F i n

a l

S a le s

i n

1 9 8 2

D

o lla r s

(C o m p o u n d e d A n n u a l R a te s o f C h a n g e )
T e rm in a l
Q u a rte r

I n i t i a l Q u a rte r
4 -8 6

1 -8 7

2 -8 7

3 -8 7

4 -8 7

1 -8 8

2 -8 7

1
.0
2
.6
3 .4

4 .6

3 .1

3 .9

3 .7

18
-8
28
-8

3 .9

4 .7

4 .8

4 .7

4 .8

4 .9

4 .8

6
.1

3 .7

4 .1

4 .1

3 .9

4 .4

3 .1

4 -8 8

3 .8

4 .2

4 .2

4 .0

4 .5

1 -8 9

3 .6

4 .0

3 .9

3 .8

2 -8 9

3 .4

3 .7

3 .7

3 .5

2 -8 9

3 -8 9

4 -8 9

1 -9 0

2 -9 0

3 -9 0

4 -9 0

1 -9 1

B i ll i o n s o f D o lla r s
A nn ual R a te s
2 -9 1

5 .1

3 -8 8

1 -8 9

7 .1

4 .1

4 -8 8

5 .0

4 -8 7

3 -8 8

4 .3

3 -8 7

2 -8 8

1 -8 7

3 ,7 6 3 .9
3 ,8 0 3 .3
3 ,8 5 0 .3
3 ,8 7 2 .3

2 .3

3 ,9 3 9 .2
3 ,9 8 8 .9

3 .6

1
.1
2
.8

4 .6

4 .1

3 .3

2 .7

3 .5

3 .7

3 .0

2 .4

2 .9

3 ,9 9 9 .5
4 ,0 4 5 .2
4 ,0 6 9 .6

2 .4

3 -8 9

3 .3

3 .5

3 .5

3 .3

3 .4

2
.8

2 .3

2 1 .7
.1
2 2 1 1
.6 .0 .8 .8

4 -8 9

3 .1

3 .3

3 .2

3 .0

3 .1

2 .5

2
.1

2 .3

1 -9 0

3 .2

3 .3

3 .2

3 .1

3 .2

2 .7

2 .3

2 -9 0

2 .9

3 .0

2 .9

2 .7

2
.8

2 .3

1 .9

2 .9

2
.8

2 .7

2 .7

2 .3

1 .9

3 -9 0

2
.8

4 -9 0

2 .7

1 -9 1
2 -9 1
3 -9 1

2 2 2
.6 .6 .2
2 .3
2 2 1 .7
.2 .1
2 .4
2 .5
2 2 2 1
.2 .0 .0 .6
2 .3
2 .3
.6
2 2 2 1 .9 1 .9 1
.2 .2 .1

4 -8 6

2
.8

1 -8 7

2 .7

2 -8 7

3 -8 7

4 -8 7

1 .9
1 .4
1 .3
1 .3

18 28
-8 -8

1 .7

4 ,0 8 6 .6
4 ,1 0 5 .1

1 .4

1 .5

4 ,1 1 4 .4

0 .9

2 .5
2 2 2 2 .3 3 . 8
.1 .0 .2
2 1 1 .5 1 .4 1 .3 1 . 5 - 0 . 7
.1 .6
2 1 . 7 1 1 .5 1 .5 1 .7 0 1 .9
.1
.6
.6
2 1 .7 1 .5 1 .5 1 .5 1 0 . 9 1 . 7
.0
.6
.1
1 .5
1 1 0 .9 0 .7 0 .7 - 0 . 1 0
.1 .0
.6 .0 .2
1 .4
1 0 .9 0 0 .7 0 0 0
.0
.8
1 .3
1 0 .9 0 0 0 0 0
.0
.8 .6 .6 .1 .2
3 -8 8

4 -8 8

1 -8 9

2 -8 9

3 -8 9

4 -8 9

1 -9 0

2 -9 0

4 ,1 5 2 .8
4 ,1 4 5 .6
4 ,1 6 5 .3
4 ,1 7 9 .8

1 .4

4 ,1 4 9 .0

-0 .8

- 2 .9

-0 .4

-1 .3

0 .3

-0 .2

-0 .7

0 .4

0 .6

3 -9 0

4 -9 0

1 -9 1

2 -9 1

4 ,1 5 2 .2
4 ,1 5 8 .2

P re p a re d b y F e d e r a l R e s e r v e Bank o f S t .
O c t o b e r 2 9 , 1991

P e r s o n a l

C o n s u m

p t io n

E x p e n d it u r e s

i n

1 9 8 2

D

L o u is

o l l a r s

(C o m p o u n d e d A n n u a l R a te s o f C h a n g e )
T e r a in a l
Q u a rte r

I n i t i a l Q u a rte r
4 -8 6

1 -8 7

2 -8 7

3 -8 7

4 -8 7

18 28
-8 -8

1 -8 7

2
.6
3 .2

4 .4

2 .3

2
.8

1 .9

18
-8
28
-8

3 .2

3 .8

3 .6

3 .2

3 .6

3 .4

3 .0

4 .8

3 .2

3 .6

3 .4

3 .1

4 .3

3 .1

3 .2

3 .6

3 .4

3 .2

4 .1

3 .2

3 .5

1 -8 9

2
.8

3 .1

2 .9

2
.6

3 .2

1 -9 0

2 -9 0

3 -9 0

4 -9 0

1 -9 1

B i l l i o n s o f D o lla r s
A n n u a l R a te s
2 -9 1

3 .5

4 -8 8

4 -8 9

2 .7

3 -8 8

3 -8 9

6 .9

3 .1

2 -8 9

4 .3

4 -8 7

1 -8 9

4 .5

3 -8 7

4 -8 8

0 .7

2 -8 7

3 -8 8

2 ,4 8 2 .2
2 ,5 0 9 .9
2 ,5 3 6 .6
-0 .4

2 ,5 3 4 .2

2 -8 9

2 .7

2 .9

2 .7

2 .4

2 .9

3 -8 9

2
.8

3 .0

2 .9

2 .7

3 .1

4 -8 9

2 .5

2 .7

2 .5

2 .3

2
.6

2
.6

2 .4

1 -9 0
2 -9 0
3 -9 0
4 -9 0
1 -9 1
2 -9 1
3 -9 1

2 2 .5
.2
2 .3
2 .4
2 2 2
.2 .0 .2
2 .3
2 .4
2 2 2 .3
.2 .1
1 .9
2 1 1 1
.0 .8 .6 .8
1 .7
1 1 1 .4 1 . 5
.8 .6
1 1 1 . 7 1 .5 1
.8 .8
.6
1 .9
1 .9
1 1 1
.8 .6 .8
2 .4

4 -8 6

1 -8 7

2 -8 7

3 -8 7

4 -8 7

2 ,5 7 6 .8
2 ,5 9 4 . 1
2 ,6 1 6 .4
2 ,6 3 8 .8

3 .5

2 1
.2 .6
2 2 1 .5
.1 .0
2 .3

-0 .3
0 .5

2 ,6 3 6 .7
1 .3

2 ,6 4 5 .3

1 2 .9 4 . 6
.8
2 1 .9 1 1 1 . 7 1 .9
.0
.6 .2
1 .9
1 1 . 5 1 1 .5 1
.8
.6
.2
1 .7
.0
1 1 .4 1 1 .3 1 .3
.6
1 1 .7 1 . 5 1 . 3 1 .5 1
.8
.6
1 .4
.8
1 1 0 . 7 0 0 .7
.2 .0
1 1 0 .7 0 .4 0 .5 0 .4
.1 .0
.6
1 1 0 . 9 0 0 .7 0 .7
.2 .1
.0 .0
1 .4
1 .3
1 0 .9 1 1
.1
2 .5

2 .5

18 28
-8 -8

2 ,6 7 5 .3

2 .3

3 -8 8

4 -8 8

1 -8 9

2 -8 9

-0 .8

2 ,6 6 9 .9

0 1
.1 .1
0 0 .7 0
.2
.2
0 1 .3 1 . 5
.8
-0 .1
0 -0 .2
.1

-0 .4

- 3 .4

-0 .3

-0 .8

-2 .4

-1 .5

-0 .8

0 .5

2 .5

0 .3

1 .6

3 .1

3 .8

3 -9 0

4 -9 0

1 -9 1

2 -9 1

-0 .2

-0 .5

2 ,6 7 7 .3
2 ,6 7 8 .8
2 .7

0 0 .3 0 0
.1
.1 .1
.8
0 0 0 .7 0
.6 .8
3 -8 9

4 -8 9

1 -9 0

2 -9 0

2 ,6 9 6 .8
2 ,6 7 3 .6
2 ,6 6 3 .7
2 ,6 8 0 .5
2 ,7 0 5 .3

T h ird q u a rte r 1991 d a ta a re ad van ce e s t iv a t e s .




P re p a re d b y F e d e ra l R e s e rv e Bank o f S t . L o u is
O cto b e r 2 9 , 1991

15

R

e s i d e n t i a l

F ix e d

I n v e s t m

e n t

i n

1 9 8 2

D

o lla r s

(C o m p o u n d e d A n n u a l R a te s o f C h a n g e )
T e r a in a l
Q u a rte r

I n i t i a l Q u a rte r
4 -8 6

1 -8 7

2 -8 7

1 -8 7

- 2 .1
-3 .2

- 0 .6

- 2 .2

- 0 .2

- 2 .4

-3 .2

-1 .9

- 3 .9

3 -8 8

4 -8 8

1 -8 9

2 -8 9

3 -8 9

4 -8 9

1 -9 0

2 -9 0

3 -9 0

4 -9 0

1 -9 1

B i l l i o n s o f D o lla r s
A n nual R a te s
2 -9 1

- 5 .3

4 -8 7

1 8 28
-8 -8

4 .4

3 -8 7

4 -8 7

-8 .1

2 -8 7

3 -8 7

18
-8
28
-8

1 9 6 .1
1 9 8 .2
1 9 5 .5

0
.6
-3 .1

1 9 5 .8
- 6 .8

1 9 2 .4

0 - 0 .2 6
.1
.8
0 0 3 . 6 0 .4
.2 .0
0 -0 .1 2 0
.0
.2 .0

-1 .6

- 0 .2

- 1 .3

3 -8 8

-1 .3

-0 .1

-1 .0

4 -8 8

-1 .2

- 0 .1

- 0 .9

1 -8 9

-1 .5

- 0 .6

-1 .3

-0 .6

-0 .8

0 .7

- 1 .2

- 2 .0

-3 .6

2 -8 9

- 2 .5

- 1 .8

- 2 .6

-2 .2

- 2 .6

-1 .8

-3 .8

-5 .2

- 7 .5 - 1 1 .3

3 -8 9

- 3 .0

-2 .4

- 3 .2

-2 .9

-3 .4

-2 .8

-4 .6

-5 .8

-7 .6

- 9 .5

- 7 .6

4 -8 9

- 3 .2

- 2 .7

-3 .4

- 3 .2

- 3 .6

-3 .2

-4 .8

-5 .8

-7 .1

-8 .2

-6 .6

1 -9 0

-1 .9

-1 .3

-1 .8

-1 .5

- 1 .7

-1 .1

-2 .1

- 2 .6

- 3 .0

- 2 .8

2 -9 0

- 2 .6

- 2 .1

-2 .7

-2 .4

- 2 .7

-2 .2

-3 .3

-3 .8

-4 .4

-4 .6

1 9 5 .6
1 9 5 .8
- 0 .4

1 9 5 .6
1 9 3 .8
1 8 8 .1

0
.1
-2 .8

1 8 4 .4
-5 .5
4 .3
- 1 .2

1 8 1 .8
1 5 .1

1 8 8 .3

1 -1 1 .2
.1

1 8 2 .8

3 -9 0

- 3 .8

-3 .5

- 4 .1

-4 .0

- 4 .4

- 4 .2

-5 .3

-6 .0

-6 .8

-7 .3

- 6 .5

- 6 .2

4 -9 0

-5 .0

- 4 .8

- 5 .4

- 5 .4

- 5 .9

- 5 .8

-7 .0

-7 .8

-8 .6

-9 .3

- 9 .0

- 9 .3 - 1 0 .2 - 1 7 .3 - 2 0 .2 - 2 0 .6

1 -9 1

- 6 .3

-6 .2

- 6 .9

-7 .0

- 7 .5

-7 .6

-8 .8

- 9 . 7 - 1 0 . 7 - 1 1 . 5 - 1 1 . 5 - 1 2 . 2 - 1 3 . 4 - 1 9 . 4 - 2 1 . 9 - 2 3 .0

- 6 .4 - 1 5 .6 - 1 9 .8

1 7 3 .0
1 6 3 .3
-2 5 .3

2 -9 1

-5 .9

-5 .8

- 6 .4

- 6 .4

-6 .9

- 6 .9

-8 .0

- 8 .7

- 9 . 5 - 1 0 .1 - 1 0 . 0 - 1 0 . 3 - 1 1 .1 - 1 5 . 6 - 1 6 . 6 - 1 5 . 6 - 1 2 . 9

3 -9 1

-4 .7

- 4 .5

- 5 .0

- 4 .9

-5 .3

- 5 .2

-6 .0

- 6 .6

- 7 .1

-7 .4

-7 .0

- 6 .9

-7 .1

4 -8 6

1 -8 7

2 -8 7

3 -8 7

4 -8 7

18 2 8
-8 -8

3 -8 8

4 -8 8

1 -8 9

2 -8 9

3 -8 9

4 -8 9

- 1 0 .4 - 1 0 .2
1 -9 0

1 5 1 .8

1
.6

1 5 2 .4

- 7 .7

1 0 .7

2 0 .6

3 -9 0

2 -9 0

- 2 .9
4 -9 0

1 -9 1

1 5 9 .7

2 -9 1

P r e p a r e d b y F e d e r a l R e s e r v e B a n k o f S t . L o u is
O c t o b e r 2 9 , 1991

N

o n r e s id e n t ia l

F ix e d

I n v e s t m

e n t

i n

1 9 8 2

D

o lla r s

(C o m p o u n d e d A n n u a l R a te s o f C h a n g e )
T e r m in a l
Q u a rte r
4 -8 6
1 -8 7

3 .8

2 -8 7

3 -8 7

4 -8 7

1 -8 8

2 -8 8

3 -8 8

I n i t i a l Q u a rte r
Annu al R a te s
4 -8 8 1 -8 9 2 -8 9

-4 .0

2 -8 7

1 -8 7

3 -8 7
4 -8 7

18
-8
28
-8

8
.0
6
.1
7 .2

B i l l i o n s o f D o lla r s
3 -8 9

4 -8 9

1 -9 0

1 -9 1

2 -9 1

4 4 3 .8

1 4 .5

1 7 .0

9 .7

8 .5

1 .1 9 . 5
0
1 .2 1 .0
1 1

4 6 1 .6

0
.6

4 6 2 .3

5 .9

1 1 .4

4 7 5 .0

9 .1

1 3 .5

1 5 .7

9 .6

9 .1

7 .1

9 .4

8 .4

4 -8 8

5 .7

7 .1

6 .3

4 .3

5 .3

3 .3

7 .4

6 .7

5 .1

7 .3

6 .7

5 .3

3 -8 9

6
.0
6
.1
6
.1

7 .2

6 .7

5 .5

6
.0
6
.1
6
.2

4 -8 9

5 .3

5 .6

4 .4

1 -9 0

5 .3

6
.2
6
.1

5 .5

2 -8 9

4 -9 0

1 .1
2

7 .5

1 -8 9

3 -9 0

4 3 1 .3

3 -8 8

8 .5

2 -9 0

4 9 2 .6

1
.6
- 2 .4

4 9 4 .6
-6 .3

4 8 6 .6

5 .1

1 1
.2 .0
2 2 .9
.6

7 .9

6 .9

5 .3

3 .3

7 .4

6
.6

6 .3

4 .9

4 .0

2 2
.1 .2

4 .5

3 .0

1
.2

4 .4

4 .9

4 .1

2 .5

4 .6

3 .5

2 .4

1 1
.6 .6

3 .0

2 .4

3 .8

4 .7

2 -9 0

4 .5

5 .2

4 .6

3 .6

3 .9

3 .1

3 -9 0

4 .8

5 .4

5 .0

4 .0

4 .3

3 .6

4 -9 0

4 .5

5 .1

4 .6

3 .7

4 .0

3 .3

1 -9 1

3 .1

3 .6

3 .1

2 -9 1

3 .0

3 .5

2 .9

2 2
.1 .2
2 2
.1 .2

3 -9 1

3 .2

3 .6

3 .2

2 .3

2 .5

4 -8 6

1 -8 7

2 -8 7

3 -8 7

4 -8 7

1 .5
1 .5
1 .9

3 .8

2 .7

8 .9

4 9 7 .1
5 0 5 .5
5 1 3 .3
5 0 8 .4

-3 .8
0 .5

5 1 4 .6

5 .0

1 0 -1 .3 0 -4 .7
.8 .6
.0
2 1 2 .9 1
.2 .2
.8
2 2 3 . 3 2 . 5 1 0 .9 2 1
.1 .2
.8
.2 .2
0 0 .9 0 - 1 . 0 - 2 . 2 - 1 . 8 - 3 . 5
.2
.0
0 .3
1 0 -0 .7 -1 .7 -1 .3 -2 .5
.0 .1
0 .3
0 .4
0 1 .5 0 0 - 0 . 7 - 0 . 2 - 1 . 1
.8
.8 .1
0 .9

1 8 28
-8 -8

2 .5

3 -8 8

4 -8 8

3 .0

1 -8 9

2 -8 9

3 -8 9

4 -8 9

1 -9 0

5 0 8 .4
5 1 9 .3

8 .9
4 .4

0
.1

5 1 9 .4
4 9 6 .8

-3 .0

- 8 .5 -1 6 .3

- 1 .9

-5 .3

- 7 .9

1 .4

- 0 .3

-2 .5

-3 .3

3 .9

6 .6

2 -9 0

3 -9 0

4 -9 0

1 -9 1

2 -9 1

4 9 8 .5
5 0 6 .5

T h ird q u a rte r 1991 d a ta a r e ad van ce e s tim a te s .




P re p a re d b y F e d e ra l R e s e rv e Bank o f S t . L o u is
O cto b er 2 9 , 1991

16

E x p o r t s

i n

1 9 8 2

D

o lla r s

(C o m p o u n d e d A n n u a l R a te s o f C h a n g e )
T e r a in a l
Q u a rte r

I n i t i a l Q u a rte r
4 -8 6

1 -8 7

2 -8 7

3 -8 7

4 -8 7

1 8 28
-8 -8

1 -8 7

1 7 .2

3 -8 7

1 8 .3

2 1 .3
2 2 .3

2 2 .4

2 8 .0
1 9 .6

1 7 .2

1 -9 0

2 -9 0

3 -9 0

4 -9 0

1 -9 1

B i l l i o n s o f D o lla r s
A nnual R a te s
2 -9 1

4 .4
4 .9

4 -8 9

3 1 .7

1 9 .8

3 -8 9

2 4 .3

2 5 .5

2 -8 9

2 .6
0

1 9 .8

1 -8 9

2 1 .9

4 -8 7

4 -8 8

1 2 .7

2 -8 7

3 -8 8

4 1 8 .8

18 2 .1 2 4 .6
-8 2
28 1 8 .9 2 .2
-8
0

4 4 0 .1
4 6 1 .2
4 8 7 .0
5 2 1 .7
5 2 7 .3
5 3 4 .3

3 -8 8

1 6 .9

1 7 .6

1 6 .8

1 5 .8

1 3 .2

4 -8 8

1 6 .9

1 7 .5

1 6 .8

1 6 .0

1 4 .0

8 .7

1 0 .9

1 6 .7

1 -8 9

1 6 .8

1 7 .3

1 6 .6

1 6 .0

1 4 .4

1 0 .4

1 2 .5

1 6 .3

1 5 .8

2 -8 9

1 6 .3

1 6 .7

1 6 .1

1 5 .5

1 4 .1

1 .8
0

1 2 .5

1 5 .0

1 4 .1

1 2 .4

3 -8 9

1 4 .7

1 4 .9

1 4 .1

1 3 .3

1 1 .9

8 .9

9 .8

1 0 .9

9 .0

5 .8

- 0 .5

4 -8 9

1 4 .6

1 4 .8

1 4 .1

1 3 .4

1 0 .4

1 1 .4

1 .1
0

8 .3

6 .3

1 3 .5

1 -9 0

1 4 .3

1 4 .5

1 3 .8

1 3 .2

1 0 .5

1 1 .4

1 0 .4

9 .0

7 .9

1 2 .4

2 -9 0

1 .8 1 .8 1 .1
2 2 2

3 -9 0

1 2 .4

1 2 .4

4 -9 0

1 2 .3

1 2 .3

1 1 .4

1 .0
1
1 .6 1 .0
1 1
1 0 .9
1 .2
0
1 1 .7

2 -9 1
3 -9 1

1 .6 1 1 .5
1
1 .2 1 .1
1 1
1 .6 1 0 .5
0

1 0 .5

9 .8

9 .8

9 .2

4 -8 6

1 -9 1

2 -8 7

3 -8 7

1 -8 7

1 .1 9 . 5
2
1 .0 9 . 7
2
1 .1 8
0
.0
9 .8

5 .4

5 5 5 .3
5 7 6 .1

8 .4

8 .9

7 .6

7 .9

8 .3

8
.6

7 .5

5 9 3 .2
5 9 2 .5
6 1 1 .6

4 .5

6 .3

5 .0

6
.1
6
.2

1 .2
1
2
.8

6 .4

4 .1

6 2 8 .1
6 2 0 .1

- 5 .0

0
.8

6 3 0 .5

6 .9

9 .9

8
.2

8 .5

8 .9

8
.0

6 .9

6
.0

7 .3

5 .8

4 .1

8 .9

1 .0
1

9 .2

7 .5

7 .8

8
.0

7 .1

6
.1

5 .2

6
.2

4 .7

3 .2

6
.0

5 .6

0 .5

8
.8
8
.2

7 .3

7 .5

7 .7

6 .7

6 .9

7 .0

4 -8 7

18 28
-8 -8

3 -8 8

6
.8
6
.2
4 -8 8

6 4 7 .2
6 4 8 .0

5 .9

5 .1

5 .9

4 .7

3 .4

5 .6

5 .2

2 .5

4 .5

5 .3

4 .5

5 .2

4 .0

2 .9

4 .5

3 .9

1 .7

2 .3

0 .1

6 5 5 .1

1 -8 9

2 -8 9

3 -8 9

4 -8 9

1 -9 0

2 -9 0

3 -9 0

4 -9 0

1 -9 1

2 -9 1

P re p a re d b y F e d e r a l R e s e rv e Bank o f S t .
O c t o b e r 2 9 , 1991

I m

p o r t s

i n

1 9 8 2

D

6 5 5 .3

L o u is

o lla r s

(C o m p o u n d e d A n n u a l R a te s o f C h a n g e )
T e r a in a l
Q u a rte r
4 -8 6
1 -8 7

2 -8 7

3 -8 7

4 -8 7

1 -8 8

2 -8 8

3 -8 8

I n i t i a l Q u a rte r
A n n u al R a te s
4 - 8 8 1 -8 9
2 -8 9

- 1 .2

3 -8 7

6
.1
1 .6
0

4 -8 7

2 -8 7

1 -8 7

B i l l i o n s o f D o lla r s
3 -8 9

4 -8 9

1 -9 0

2 -9 0

3 -9 0

4 -9 0

1 -9 1

2 -9 1

5 4 0 .2
1 4 .0

5 5 8 .2

1 7 .0

2 .1
0

1 0 .4

1 4 .6

1 4 .9

9 .9

8 .3

1 0 .9

9 .9

5 .1

0 .5

7 .0

8 .7

7 .4

3 .5

0 .4

0 .3

7 .3

8
.8

7 .8

4 .9

3 .2

4 .7

4 -8 8

7 .9

9 .3

8 .5

6 .3

5 .5

7 .2

1 -8 9

6 .7

7 .8

6 .9

4 .8

3 .9

4 .7

1 .8
0
6
.2

7 .6

5 .9

5 .3

6 .3

7 .8

7 .5

6
.0

5 .5

5 .6
5 .2

18
-8
28
-8
3 -8 8

5 8 4 .4
5 9 8 .3

2 -8 9

7 .3

8 .3

3 -8 9

7 .2

8
.1

4 -8 9

6
.8

7 .5

6 .9

5 .5

5 .0

1 -9 0

6 .4

7 .1

6 .5

5 .2

4 .7

5 9 9 .0

6 .3

5 9 9 .5
9 .2

7 .5

3 -9 0

5 .0

4 .6

5 .0

5 .6

4 -9 0

4 .9

5 .3

3 .6

3 .1

3 .4

3 .7

1 -9 1

4 .0

4 .4

3 .8

2 .7

2
.1

2 .3

2 .5

2 -9 1

4 .7

5 .1

4 .6

3 .6

3 .2

3 .4

3 .7

3 -9 1

5 .2

5 .5

5 .0

4 .2

3 .8

4 .0

4 .3

4 -8 6

1 -8 7

2 -8 7

3 -8 7

4 -8 7

4 .7

4 .8

4 .3

4 .7

5 .3

18 28
-8 -8

6 3 1 .0

1 2 .4
4 .8

-2 .3

6 2 7 .3

7 .4

5 .0

1 .8
2

7 .1

5 .4

9 .6

6 .4

4 .5

6 .9

4 .0

4 .1

5 .8

3 .5

4 .8

3 .5

4 .7

2 2 .5
.1
2 1 1
.8 .6 .6

0 .7

5 .1

4 .1

5 .2

3 .8

4 .1

6 6
.6 .0
6 5 .4
.0

6 6 6
.0 .6 .0
6 6 .7 6
.1
.1

2 -9 0

6 1 2 .8

6 4 6 .5
6 5 6 .6
1 .7

3 .1

6 5 9 .4

3 .6

2 2 1 - 0 .1 - 0 .5
.0 .6 .0
.1
1 0 .7 1 - 0 .5 - 1 .6 - 2 . 2
.8
2 1 1 0
.8 .6 .0 .8
2 .3
3 .2
3 .8
2 2 .4 2 . 5
.8
3 .2
3 .9
3 .1

3 -8 8

4 -8 8

1 -8 9

2 -8 9

3 -8 9

4 -8 9

6 6 3 .5
6 6 4 .7
7 .6

6 7 7 .0

-1 .5

- 2 .6 -1 1 .8

- 3 .4

-4 .7

-1 0 .4

- 8 .8

0 .5

0 .4

- 1 .8

3 .6

2 .5

2 1 6
.8 .6 .6

1 -9 0

2 -9 0

3 -9 0

6 5 6 .0

4 -9 0

6 4 1 .0
1 7 .7

6 6 7 .6

1 5 .2

1 2 .9

1 -9 1

68
8 .1

2 -9 1

T h ird q u a rte r 1991 d a ta a r e ad van ce e s tim a te s •




P re p a re d b y F e d e ra l R e s e rv e Bank o f S t . L o u is
O cto b e r 2 9 , 1991

17

G o v e r n m

e n t

P u r c h a s e s

o f

G o o d s

a n d

S e r v ic e s

i n

1 9 8 2

D

o lla r s

(C o m p o u n d e d A n n u a l R a te s o f C h a n g e )
T e r a in a l
Q u a rte r

I n i t i a l Q u a rte r
4 -8 6

1 -8 7

2 -8 7

1 -8 7

-1 .7

3 -8 7

0 .7

1
.1

2
.0

2 .7

5 .7

-0 .4

0 .5

1 8 28
-8 -8

3 -8 8

4 -8 8

1 -8 9

2 -8 9

3 -8 9

4 -8 9

1 -9 0

2 -9 0

3 -9 0

4 -9 0

1 -9 1

B i l l i o n s o f D o lla r s
A n nual R a te s
2 -9 1

5 .5

4 -8 7

4 -8 7

-0 .2

2 -8 7

3 -8 7

18
-8
28
-8

- 0 .4

0
.2

3 -8 8

-0 .4

4 -8 8

1 .5

1 -8 9

1
.0

2 -8 9

1 .3

3 -8 9

0 .9

4 -8 9
1 -9 0
2 -9 0
3 -9 0
4 -9 0
1 -9 1
2 -9 1
3 -9 1

1
.1
1
.2
1
.6
1
.6
1
.8
1
.6
1
.6
1
.2
4 -8 6

7 7 5 .7
-3 .2

7 6 9 .5
7 7 9 .8

6
.0
- 1 .9

7 9 1 .3
-9 .2

1 - 0 .2 - 3 .2
.2
0 - 1 .1 - 3 .4
.2
1 2 2 1
.8 .6 .1 .1
1 1 .7 1 0
.1
.1 .2
1 .4
2 1 .5 0
.0
.8
1 1 .5 1 0 .4
.0
.0
1 1 . 7 1 .3 0 . 7
.2
1 .4
1 1 .4 0 .9
.8
1 .7
2 1 .9 1 .4
.1
1 .7
2 1 1 .4
.1 .8
1 .9
2 .3
2 1 .7
.0
1 .7
2 1 1 .5
.0 .8
2 1 1 .5
.0 .8
1 .7
1 1 .5 1 0 .9
.2
.2

7 7 2 .4

0 .3

3 .3

- 0 .4

-0 .3

-3 .8

4 .8

5 .5

1 5 .7

2 .7

2 .5

5 .8

- 3 .3

3 .0

2 .9

5 .2

0 .3

3 .2

- 0 .6

3 .2

0 .3

1 .5

0 .3

3 .0

3 .1

0
.8

1 .9

1
.2

3 .0

2 .9

3 .6

1 .7

2 .7

2 .4

4 .0

4 .5

1 -8 7

2 -8 7

3 -8 7

4 -8 7

7 7 8 .7

2 1
.0 .8
2 2
.2 .0
2 .3
2
.1
2 .7
2
.6
2 2 .5
.6
2 2 .7
.8

7 7 1 .2

3 .3
3 .4

2 .4

2 .3

3 .0

2 .4

2 .3

2 .9

1 .7

1 2
.6 .0

18 28
-8 -8

3 -8 8

7 9 9 .9
7 9 3 .2
4 .0

0
.8

1 2 .5
.6
2 2
.0 .8
1 2 .3
.6
1 .7
2
.2
0 .9

1 .3

4 -8 8

1 -8 9

8 0 1 .0
-2 .4

7 9 6 .2
8 0 2 .2

2 3 .3 3 .4
.2
2 3 .6 3 .8
.6
2 2 2 .7
.0 .8
2 2 2
.0 .6 .6
1 1 .4 1
.0
.2
2 -8 9

3 -8 9

4 -8 9

8 0 7 .9

6
.2

8 2 0 .2

3 .7

1
.2

4 .0

3 .0

4 .7

2 .7

1 .5

1 .7

- 1 .3

2 .5

1
.6

1 .7

0 .3

8 2 2 .7
8 3 2 .3
8 2 9 .6

1
.8

8 3 3 .4

0 .9

- 0 .1

- 0 .4

- 2 .1

-2 .4

-6 .6

1 -9 0

2 -9 0

3 -9 0

4 -9 0

1 -9 1

2 -9 1

8 1 9 .4

T h ir d q u a r t e r 1991 d a t a a r e a d v a n c e e s t im a t e s .
P r e p a r e d b y F e d e r a l R e s e r v e B an k o f S t .
O c to b e r 2 9 , 1991

C o r p o r a t e

P

r o

L o u is

f i t s

(C o m p o u n d e d A n n u a l R a te s o f C h a n g e )
T e r m in a l
Q u a rte r

I n i t i a l Q u a rte r
3 -8 6

4 -8 6

1 .5

1 -8 7

2 -8 7

3 -8 7

4 -8 7

18 28
-8 -8

3 -8 8

4 -8 8

1 -8 9

2 -8 9

3 -8 9

4 -8 9

1 -9 0

2 -9 0

3 -9 0

4 -9 0

B i l l i o n s o f D o lla r s
Ann ual R a te s
1 -9 1

-6 .3

1 -8 7

4 -8 6

2 7 5 .2
9 .9

2 8 1 .8

2 -8 7

1 2 .3

2 3 .0

3 7 .6

3 -8 7

1 5 .5

2 3 .8

3 1 .4

1 .2
2
18 1 .8
-8 1
28 1 .0
-8 1

4 -8 7

3 -8 8
4 -8 8
1 -8 9
2 -8 9
3 -8 9
4 -8 9

3 0 5 .2
2 5 .5

3 2 3 .0

2 .0 1 .1 0
0 2
.1
1 7 .3
1 .2 4 . 7 9 . 5
1
1 4 .2
1 5 .1
1 .0 5 . 3 8 6
0
.0 .6
9 .3
1 .8 1 .1 7 . 6 3 . 5 4 . 7 2 .4
1 2
1 0 .4
1 2 .7
1 3 .1
9 .5
6 .5
8 7 .8
.2
8 7 .8 4 .1 0 .9 1 - 1 .0
.0
6 .5
.0
6 2 - 0 .3 - 0 .4 -2 .2
.0 .6
5 .2
6 .4
3 .1
4 .0
3 .4
0 - 2 .6 - 2 .9 -4 .9
.2
1 1 .9 1 - 1 .9 - 4 .5 -5 .1 -7 .0
.2
.2
1 7 .4

3 2 3 .1

1 5 .8

-1 .0

1 -9 0

1 .7

2 .4

1 .7

2 -9 0

2 .5

3 .1

2 0
.6 .2

3 3 0 .5
3 3 5 .8
- 1 .7
8 .4

3 3 4 .4
1 9 .5

3 4 9 .6

-3 .4

-4 .2 -2 3 .2

3 2 7 .3

- 4 .3

-5 .1 -1 5 .5

- 7 .0

- 8 .3 -1 6 .0 - 1 2 .2 -1 7 .1

-7 .0

3 2 1 .4
3 0 6 .7
2 9 0 .9

- 9 .1 - 1 0 .5 - 1 6 .8 - 1 4 .5 -1 8 .1 -1 9 .1

-3 .3

-3 .7

- 5 .2

- 6 .8

- 7 .6 - 1 2 .3

-1 .9

-2 .1

- 3 .3

- 4 .4

- 4 .8

-8 .4

- 9 .3 - 1 0 .1
- 5 .1

-4 .6

-6 .4

2 9 6 .8

8 .4

0 1 .1
.0 1

3 0 6 .6

1 3 .9

1 2 .4
.8
0 1
.8 .2

1 .9

-0 .5

- 2 .4

-2 .6

-3 .7

-4 .8

-5 .2

-8 .2

- 5 .5

-5 .2

- 2 .0

4 .5

4 -9 0

0 .7

-1 .6

- 3 .4

- 3 .7

-4 .8

-5 .8

-6 .3

- 9 .1

- 6 .9

-6 .9

-4 .7

-0 .7

- 3 .5 - 1 1 .2 - 1 4 .8

1 -9 1

0 .5

C .9

0 .4

-1 .7

-3 .4

-3 .7

- 4 .7

-5 .6

-6 .0

-8 .5

- 6 .5

- 6 .4

-4 .5

- 1 .3

- 3 .6

-8 .8

- 9 .4

- 3 .7

2 -9 1

0 .4

0 .7

0
.2

-1 .7

-3 .3

-3 .6

- 4 .5

-5 .4

-5 .7

-7 .9

-6 .1

-5 .9

-4 .2

-1 .5

- 3 .4

-7 .2

-7 .2

-3 .1

- 2 .5

3 -8 6

4 -8 6

2 -8 7

3 -8 7

4 -8 7

18 2 8
-8 -8

3 -8 8

4 -8 8

1 -8 9

2 -8 9

3 -8 9

4 -8 9

1 -9 0

2 -9 0

3 -9 0

4 -9 0

1 -9 1

3 -9 0

1 -8 7

2
.6

3 0 0 .7

- 7 .5

2 8 8 .9
2 8 6 .2
2 8 4 .4

C o r p o r a t e p r o f i t s w it h c a p i t a l c o n s u m p tio n an d in v e n t o r y v a lu a t i o n a d j u s t m e n t s .




P re p a re d b y F e d e ra l R e s e rv e Bank o f S t . L o u is
O cto b er 2 9 , 1991

18

G r o s s S a v i n g as a P e r c e n t of G N P
Seasonally Adjusted
Percent

Percent

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1991

1990

Total saving equals private saving (personal saving plus business saving) plus government surplus or deficit.
Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

G r o s s

P r i v a t e

S a v in g

(C o m p o u n d e d A n n u a l R a te s o f C h a n g e )
T e r a in a l
Q u a rte r

I n i t i a l Q u a rte r
3 -8 6

4 -8 6
1 -8 7

4 -8 6

1 -8 7

2 -8 7

3 -8 7

4 -8 7

1 8 28
-8 -8

3 -8 8

4 -8 8

1 -8 9

2 -8 9

3 -8 9

4 -8 9

1 -9 0

2 -9 0

3 -9 0

4 -9 0

B i l l i o n s o f D o lla r s
A n n u al R a te s
1 -9 1
6 4 1 .2

- 6 .6

8
.1

6 7 8 .0

2 5 .0

2 -8 7

-8 .2

- 9 .0

-3 3 .7

3 -8 7

- 1 .0

0 .9

-9 .4

2 3 .9

4 -8 7

7 .7

1 1 .5

7 .4

3 6 .7

5 0 .7

18
-8
28
-8

8 1 .0
.6 2

8 .9

2 8 .5

3 0 .9

1 3 .7

7 .7

1 0 .3

7 .5

2 1 .3

2 0 .5

7 .8

2
.1

3 -8 8

7 .8

1 .0
0

7 .7

1 8 .7

1 7 .4

8
.1

5 .4

8 .7

4 -8 8

7 .4

9 .3

7 .3

1 6 .2

1 4 .7

7 .2

5 .1

6
.6

4 .5

1 -8 9

7 .7

9 .4

7 .6

1 5 .3

1 3 .9

7 .7

6
.2

7 .6

7 .1

6
.2
6
.0

7 .6

5 .8

3 -8 9

7 .2

5 .5

4 -8 9

5 .9

7 .0

5 .5

1 -9 0

5 .8

2 -8 9

2 -9 0

5 .8

6
.8
6
.8

3 -9 0

4 .3

5 .1

3 .8

4 -9 0

4 .2

4 .9

3 .7

1 -9 1

4 .5

5 .2

4 .0

2 -9 1

4 .3

4 .9

3 .8

3 -8 6

4 -8 6

1 -8 7

5 .4
5 .5




6 1 1 .8
6 4 5 .5

1 .2 1 .6
2 0
1 .1 9 . 6
1
1 .6 9 . 2
0
1 .0 8 . 7
0

7 1 5 .2
7 3 8 .5
7 4 2 .4
7 5 8 .0
7 6 6 .4
9 .7

5 .1

3 .4

3 .8

2 1
.2 .0

4 .8

3 .4

3 .6

2 .4

1 .7

4 .9

3 .7

3 .9

3 .0

4 .8

3 .8

4 .0

3 .2

7 8 4 .4
-7 .0

7 7 0 .3

- 2 .1

3 .0

2
.6

0 .3

4 .2

5 .5

3 .0

1 .4

4 .3

5 .0

7 7 6 .0
7 8 6 .4
7 9 5 .0

4 .4

4 .7
6
.0
2 .3
8 .4
4 .0
4 .2
5 .3
5 .2
3 .6
3 .5
4 .9
.2
6 2 1 1 0 .9 0 .4 - 1 .0 0 - 0 .5 - 2 . 4 - 5 . 7 - 1 6 .0
.2 .8 .8 .8
.6 .2
7 .1
5 .9
2 1 . 9 1 . 9 1 0 .7 - 0 . 5 0 0 - 1 . 1 - 2 . 9 - 7 . 0
.8
.2
.8
7 .2
6 3 . 3 2 . 4 2 .5 1 . 9 1 0 1 .7 1 . 5 0 - 0 . 1 - 2 . 1
.1
.6 .6
.0
.6 .6
6 5 . 7 3 .1 2 . 3 2 .3 1 1 . 5 0 1 1 .4 0 . 7 0 - 1 . 4
.8
.8

8 0 6 .7

9 .7

7 7 2 .2

7 .4

2 -8 7

3 -8 7

4 -8 7

18 28
-8 -8

3 -8 8

4 -8 8

1 -8 9

2 -8 9

3 -8 9

4 -8 9

1 -9 0

2 -9 0

2 .9

7 7 7 .8

5 .7

8 .5

4 .0

4 .5

3 -9 0

4 -9 0

7 9 3 .9

0
.6

7 9 5 .1

1 -9 1

P re p a re d b y F e d e ra l R e s e rv e Bank o f S t . L o u is
O cto b e r 2 9 , 1991

19

B u s i n e s s Productivity a n d C o m p e n s a t i o n
Percent Change From Previous Year
Seasonally Adjusted
Percent

Percent

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

B u s in e s s

S e c t o r

O u t p u t

p e r

H o u r

(C o m p o u n d e d A n n u a l R a te s o f C h a n g e )
T e r a in a l
Q u a rte r

I n i t i a l Q u a rte r
3 -8 6

4 -8 6

4 -8 6
1 -8 7

1 .5

1 .7

3 -8 7

4 -8 7

1 8 28
-8 -8

3 -8 8

4 -8 8

0 .4

2 -8 7

2 -8 7

1 -8 9

1982 » 100
2 -8 9

3 -8 9

4 -8 9

1 -9 0

2 -9 0

3 -9 0

4 -9 0

1 -9 1

1
.1
0 .7

1 -8 7

3 -8 7
4 -8 7

18
-8
28
-8
3 -8 8
4 -8 8
1 -8 9
2 -8 9
3 -8 9
4 -8 9
1 -9 0
2 -9 0
3 -9 0
4 -9 0
1 -9 1
2 -9 1

1 0 9 .4

1 2
.8 .1
2 2 .3
.0
2 .5
2
.8
2 2
.0 .1
2 2
.0 .2
1 1 .7
.6

1 0 9 .5

2 .9

2 .9
3 .5

3 .8

2 .5

2 .4

2 .5
1 .9

1 .3

1 .3

1 .4

1
.1

1 1
.1 .2
0 0 .9
.8
0
.8
0 .7
0
0
.8 .8
0 0
.8 .8

0
.8
0
.8
0
.8
0 .7

0 .7

0 .7

0 0 0
.6 .6 .6
0 0 0
.6 .6 .6
3 -8 6

4 -8 6

1 1 1 .9

2 .9

3 .4

1
.6

0 .9

11
1 .1

2 .9

2 .9

1 .4

1 .4

1 1 0 .3

3 .0

1 -8 7




0 .7

0 .5

0 .5

0 .3

0 .5

0 .3

0 .5

0 .3

2 -8 7

3 -8 7

1 1 3 .2

4 .7

2 1
.2 .8
2 .4
2 .3
2
.0
1 .7
1 .4
1
.1
1 .4
1 0
.1 .8
1 0 .7
.0
1 .3
1 0 0 .5
.0 .8
0 .7
0 .4
0
.1
0 0 .3 0
.6
.0
.2
0 0 .4 0
.6
0 .3

0
.1
0
.1
0
.1
4 -8 7

1 1 2 .9

-1 .1
0 .7
-0 .1
- 0 .2
-0 .1

1 1 3 .6

2 .5
0 .4

0
.1
0
.2

1 1 3 .1

- 1 .7
- 1 .1
-0 .6

1 1 3 .0

-0 .4

0
.0

1 1 3 .1

0 .4

-0 .1

- 0 .7

-0 .4

- 0 .4

-0 .5

-0 .4

- 1 .0

- 0 .8

-0 .9

-1 .6

- 2 .1

-0 .5

-0 .5

- 0 .9

- 0 .8

-0 .9

-1 .3

-1 .4

-0 .7

-0 .3

- 0 .2

-0 .6

-0 .4

- 0 .4

-0 .6

-0 .5

0 .4

-0 .2

-0 .1

-0 .4

- 0 .2

-0 .2

- 0 .3

-0 .1

-0 .3

-0 .2

- 0 .5

- 0 .4

-0 .4

- 0 .5

-0 .4

-0 .3

- 0 .2

- 0 .5

- 0 .3

-0 .3

-0 .4

-0 .3

-0 .2

- 0 .1

- 0 .4

- 0 .2

- 0 .2

- 0 .3

-0 .2

3 -8 8

4 -8 8

1 -8 9

2 -8 9

3 -8 9

12
1 .8
12
1 .2
12
1 .0

- 1 .1

- 0 .2

1 8 28
-8 -8

0
.6
0
.1
0
.1
0
.1
4 -8 9

1 1 2 .4

1 .4
1 .3

1
.1

1 1 2 .7

0 .4

-0 .2

0 .3

-0 .1

- 0 .7

1 1 2 .3

- 1 .4

0 .3
1 -9 0

0
.0
2 -9 0

-0 .4
3 -9 0

0
.0
0
.2
4 -9 0

1 1 2 .3
0 .4

1 1 2 .4

1 -9 1

P re p a re d b y F e d e ra l R e s e rv e Bank o f S t . L o u is
Septem ber 5 , 1991

20

N e t

F e d e r a l

D e b t

(C o m p o u n d e d A n n u a l R a te s o f C h a n g e )
T e r m in a l
Q u a rte r

I n i t i a l Q u a rte r
3 -8 6

4 -8 6

9 .7

1 -8 7

2 -8 7

3 -8 7

4 -8 7

1 8 28
-8 -8

3 -8 8

4 -8 8

1 -8 9

2 -8 9

3 -8 9

4 -8 9

B illio n s o f
D o lla r s
1 -9 0

2 -9 0

3 -9 0

4 -9 0

1 -9 1

1 2 .3

1 -8 7

4 -8 6

1 ,8 0 2 .7
7 .1

1 / 8 3 3 .8

2 -8 7

9 .8

8 1 .2
.6 0

3 -8 7

8
.6

7 .5

7 .6

5 .2

4 -8 7

8 .7

7 .9

8
.1

7 .1

9 .1

18
-8
28
-8

8 8
.8 .2

8 .4

7 .9

9 .3
8 .4

8 .5

7 .9
8
.1
8 8
.0 .1

7 .6

3 -8 8

7 .7

8 .4

8
.1
8
.0

7 .6

7 .7

7 .3

7 .5

7 .6

7 .2

4 -8 8
1 -8 9

8 .5

1 / 8 7 8 .7
1 / 9 0 2 .6
1 / 9 4 4 .4
9 .4

1 / 9 8 8 .7

2 / 0 6 2 .0

7 .7

8 6
.1 .8
8 7 .5 8 .3
.1
6 6
.6 .6
7 .3

7 .6

7 .3

6 .7

6 .7

2 / 0 2 1 .5

2 -8 9

7 .8

7 .3

7 .3

7 .0

7 .3

7 .0

6 .5

6 .4

5 .8

3 -8 9

7 .8

7 .4

7 .4

7 .1

7 .3

7 .1

6 .7

6 .7

6 .3

7 .8

7 .4

7 .5

7 .2

7 .4

7 .2

6 .9

7 .0

6 .7

7 .9

8 8
.1 .0

4 -8 9

1 -9 1

8 8 7 .9 8 8
.0 .1
.2 .1
8 8 .3 8 8 .5 8 .4
.2
8 .5
.2
8 8 .5 8 8 .5 8 8
.8
.6
.8 .8
8 8 . 9 8 9 . 1 9 .1
.8
.8
9 .0
8 8 . 9 8 . 9 9 . 1 9 .1
.8
9 .0

2 -9 1

9 .1

9 .0

9 .1

9 .0

9 .3

9 .3

3 -8 6

4 -8 6

1 -8 7

2 -8 7

3 -8 7

4 -8 7

1 -9 0
2 -9 0
3 -9 0
4 -9 0

8 .3

8 .3

8 .5

8 .5

8 .7

8 .9

9 .0

9 .1

9 .3

9 .4

9 .1

9 .3

9 .4

9 .3

9 .5

9 .6

18 28
-8 -8

2 / 0 8 6 .9

4 .9

6
.0

3 -8 8

21 2 2 . 8
/

7 .1

6 5 .4
.2
6 6
.8 .6
7 .2

7 .2

8 .7

9 .1

2 / 1 5 0 .7
2 / 1 9 1 .7

7 .8

8
.1
1 0 .3

2 / 2 3 6 .3

8 .4

1 .6
1

2 ,3 1 5 .4

1 4 .9

9 .5
1 .6 1 1 .5 1 3 .1 1 1 .3
0
1 .0 1 .0 1 .8 1 2 .9 1 1 .9
0 1 1
1 .0 1 0 .5 1 1 .3 1 .0 1 3 .0 1 2 . 3
0
2
1 .0 1 .6 1 .2 1 .6
1 1 2 1
9 .9
1 0 .3
1 .1 1 0 .4 1 .1 1 1 .5 1 .1 1 1 .5
0
1
2

1 .6
2
1 .8 1 3 .1
2
1 .6 1 .2
1 1
1 .6 1 .2
1 1

4 -8 8

2 -9 0

2 / 3 7 8 .3

9 .1

9 .6

1 -8 9

2 -8 9

3 -8 9

4 -8 9

1 -9 0

3 -9 0

2 ,4 4 9 .8
2 ,5 2 6 .4
9 .3

2 ,5 8 2 .9

1 0 .3

1 1 .4

4 -9 0

1 -9 1

2 / 6 5 3 .5

P re p a re d by F e d e ra l R e se rv e Bank o f S t .
O c t o b e r 2 1 , 1991

L o u is

FEDER AL GOVERNM ENT D E B T
(billions of dollars)
Seasonally Adjusted End of Month Totals
Gross
federal debt

Federal debt held
by agencies
and trusts

Net
federal debt

Federal debt held
by Federal
Reserve Banks

Federal debt held
by private
investors

Federal debt held
by foreign
investors

March
June
September
December

2248.9
2311.6
2362.1
2417.2

414.5
432.9
459.0
473.4

1833.8
1878.7
1902.6
1944.4

199.4
211.7
214.5
217.4

1628.4
1668.1
1690.8
1726.2

271.7
278.0
282.3
301.5

March
June
September
December

2487.6
2550.3
2615.3
2671.0

499.3
527.9
552.1
585.1

1998.7
2021.5
2062.0
2086.9

221.3
226.2
232.5
232.4

1763.7
1797.5
1832.2
1854.8

330.5
342.0
350.5
363.3

March
June
September
December

2740.9
2802.7
2871.8
2938.3

618.0
650.0
678.1
703.6

2122.8
2150.7
2191.7
2236.3

232.8
230.2
224.2
222.4

1886.4
1920.6
1970.1
2011.8

373.6
366.2
400.9
392.9

March
June
September
December

3049.0
3146.9
3249.5
3351.4

735.2
765.1
797.4
823.4

2315.4
2378.3
2449.8
2526.4

223.8
229.6
236.3
252.7

2094.2
2154.7
2220.6
2283.7

382.6
390.1
411.5
422.7

March
June

3461.7
3541.5

881.8
883.6

2582.9
2653.5

252.3
252.8

2337.2
2412.4

426.5
439.4

C o lu m n s m ay not ad d b e c a u s e e a ch co m p o n e n t is s e a so n a lly adjusted separately. G ro s s federal debt e q u a ls deb t h e ld b y a g e n c ie s a n d tru sts p lu s net fe d e ra l debt.
N et fe d eral deb t e q u a ls deb t h eld by F e d e ra l R e se rv e b a n k s p lu s deb t held by private in vestors (which in c lu d e s d e b t h e ld b y fo reig n investors). S o u rc e s: O rig in a l
d a ta m ay b e found in the T re a s u ry B u lle tin an d a ls o in the F e d e ra l R e se rv e B u lle tin ; se a so n a lly a dju sted s e rie s p re p a re d b y th is B an k.




21

FEDERAL GOVERNM ENT B U D G ETS
(billions of dollars, quarterly totals seasonally adjusted at annual rates)
Receipts

Expenditures

Surplus or i

Quarters

National
income accounts
budget

Cyclically
adjusted
budget

National
income accounts
budget

Cyclically
adjusted
budget

National
income accounts
budget

Cyclically
adjusted
budget

1984 1
2
3
4

$ 711.1
721.9
728.3
742.7

$ 744.7
747.9
754.4
771.0

$ 865.6
885.3
901.1
930.2

$ 859.8
880.4
895.6
925.3

$ -1 5 4 .6
-1 6 3 .4
-1 7 2 .8
-1 8 7 .5

-1 1 5 .1

1985 1
2
3
4

796.5
758.7
794.1
805.3

819.3
780.7
811.8
822.0

958.2
969.9
996.7
1017.5

953.0
964.4
991.3
1012.6

-1 6 1 .6
-211.1
-2 0 2 .7
-2 1 2 .2

-1 3 3 .7

-1 9 5 .6
-2 3 6 .0
-2 0 6 .8
-1 8 9 .0

-1 8 5 .0

-1 8 2 .3

-1 3 2 .5
- 1 4 1 .2
-1 5 4 .3

-1 8 3 .7
- 1 7 9 .5
-1 9 0 .6

1986 1
2
3
4

810.9
815.9
830.9
853.8

816.4
832.2
852.1
875.5

1006.6
1051.9
1037.7
1042.8

1001.4
1045.2
1032.4
1038.7

1987 1
2
3
4

862.0
929.8
923.4
940.0

875.1
938.1
927.2
930.0

1060.0
1061.1
1064.9
1101.7

1057.4
1060.4
1065.6
1103.0

-1 9 8 .0
-1 3 1 .3
-1 4 1 .6
-1 6 1 .7

1988 1
2
3
4

943.0
972.5
976.7
997.5

924.9
949.5
953.0
971.4

1096.7
1109.4
1096.8
1153.8

1098.0
1111.4
1098.2
1156.1

-1 5 3 .7
-1 3 6 .9
-120.1
-1 5 6 .3

-1 7 3 .1

1989 1
2
3
4

1045.4
1062.2
1048.1
1055.7

1014.3
1032.2
1020.2
1035.4

1178.0
1184.9
1179.8
1205.8

1181.0
1187.3
1182.0
1208.2

-1 3 2 .6
-1 2 2 .7
-1 3 1 .7
-150.1

-1 6 6 .7

1990 1
2
3
4

1080.6
1105.8
1125.9
1126.5

1061.7
1093.4
1116.0
1132.1

1248.8
1271.7
1271.6
1310.8

1252.2
1275.4
1273.6
1311.2

-1 6 8 .3
-1 6 6 .0
-1 4 5 .7
-1 8 4 .3

-1 9 0 .5

1991 1
2
3

1134.5
1138.5
N.A.

1160.1
1173.7
N.A.

1261.4
1323.1
1337.1

1257.9
1319.3
N.A.

-1 2 6 .9
-1 8 4 .6
N.A.

-

-2 1 3 .0
-1 8 0 .3
-1 6 3 .2

-1 2 2 .3
-1 3 8 .4
-1 7 3 .0

-1 6 1 .9
-1 4 5 .2
-1 8 4 .7

-1 5 5 .1
-1 6 1 .8
-1 7 2 .8

-1 8 2 .0
-1 5 7 .6
-1 7 9 .1
9 7 .8

-1 4 5 .6

N.A.

N.A. — Not Available

F is c a l y e a r s

Actual
1984
Total budget
Receipts
Outlays
Surplus or deficit ( - )

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

$ 666.5 $ 734.1 $ 769.1 $ 854.1 $ 909.0 $ 990.7 $ 1031.3 $ 1053.8
851.8
1003.8
1064.1
1144.1
1322.6
946.3
990.3
1251.8
$ -185.3 $ -212.3 $ -221.2 $-149.7 $-155.1 $-153.4 $ -220.5 $-268.7
C a le n d a r y e a r s

N a tio n a l in c o m e a cc o u n ts

budget
Receipts
Expenditures
Surplus or deficit( - )

$ 726.0 $ 788.7 $ 827.9 $ 913.8 $ 972.4 $ 1052.9 $ 1109.7
895.6
985.6
1034.8
1071.9
1114.2
1187.2
1275.7
$ -169.6 $ -196.9 $ -206.9 $-158.2 $-141.7 $-134.3 $ -166.0

C y c lic a lly a d ju ste d b u d g et

Receipts
Expenditures
Surplus or deficit(-)

$ 754.5 $ 808.5 $ 844.1 $ 917.6 $ 949.7 $ 1025.5 $ 1100.8
8 9 0 .3

9 8 0 .3

1 0 2 9 .4

1 0 7 1 .6

1 1 1 5 .9

1 1 8 9 .6

1 2 7 8 .1

$ -1 3 5 .8

$ -1 7 1 .9

$ -1 8 5 .4

$ -1 5 4 .0

$ -1 6 6 .2

$ -1 6 4 .1

$ -1 7 7 .3

F is c a l y e a r s r e f e r to t h e b u d g e t y e a r w h ic h r u n s fro m O c t o b e r 1 th r o u g h S e p t e m b e r 3 0 .
T o t a l b u d g e t o u t la y s in c lu d e f e d e r a l e n t it ie s th a t a r e o ff-b u d g e t .
C y c l ic a l ly a d j u s t e d b u d g e t d a t a a r e b a s e d o n a 6 p e r c e n t ra te o f u n e m p lo y m e n t .
S o u r c e : O f f ic e o f M a n a g e m e n t a n d B u d g e t a n d U . S . D e p a r t m e n t o f C o m m e r c e .




P r e p a r e d b y F e d e r a l R e s e r v e B a n k o f S t. L o u is

22

G o v e r n m e n t Deficit(-)/Surplus(+)
Seasonally Adjusted
Billions of Dollars
-6 0

B illio n s o f D o lla r s

- 1 1 0

-1 6 0

-2 1 0

-2 6 0
1985

1986

1987

1988

1990

1989

1991

National income accounts basis
Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

F e d e r a l

D e f e n s e

E x p e n d it u r e s

(C o m p o u n d e d A n n u a l R a te s o f C h a n g e )
T e r a in a l
Q u a rte r

I n i t i a l Q u a rte r
3 -6 6

4 -6 6

1 -8 7

2 -8 7

4 -8 6

0 .9
3 .5

9 .6

5 .0

9 .6

9 .2

4 -8 8

1 -6 9

2 -8 9

9 .6
1 .4

3 -8 8

3 -8 9

4 -8 9

1 -9 0

2 -9 0

3 -9 0

4 -9 0

B i l l i o n s o f D o lla r s
A n n u al R a te s
1 -9 1

8
.8

3 -6 7

18 26
-8 -8

1 0 .5

2 -6 7

4 -8 7

- 7 .9

1 -6 7

3 -8 7

4 -6 7

16
-6
26
-6

2 6 0 .7
2 8 7 .8

2
.6

5 .5

3 .6

2 .3

4 .5

2 9 3 .9

3 .1

1
.2
2 1
.6 .1
1 0 .4
.8

3 0 0 .7
- 6 .1
-2 .7

2 9 6 .0

0
.8

3 -9 0

-1 .6
2 3 .9
.1
0 .7
-1 .7
1 3 .0
.6
-0 .2
2 3 . 3 2 .3 1 . 3 - 0 . 3 1
.0
.2
.6 .8
1 2 .7 1 0 - 0 .6 0
.6
.6
1 2 2 1 0 1
.6 .6 .0 .1 .0 .0
2 .5
1 .9
2
.0
2 .3
3 .2
0 .9
1 .3
2 1 .4 0 . 7 - 0 . 2 0 . 5
.2
2 2 2 1 0 .9 1 .7
.0 .6 .2 .6
2 2 2 .3 1 .7 1 1
.1 .6
.1 .8
2 2 . 9 2 . 4 1 . 9 1 .3 2
.2
.0

4 -9 0

3 .0

3 .7

3 .3

2 .9

1 -9 1

3 .3

4 .0

3 .6

3 .2

2 -9 1

2 .7

3 .4

3 .0

3 -6 6

4 -8 6

1 -8 7

3 -6 6
4 -6 6
1 -6 9
2 -6 9
3 -6 9
4 -6 9
1 -9 0
2 -9 0




2 .4

3 .2

2 3 .5
.6
2 2 2
.6 .2 .8

2 -8 7

3 -8 7

4 -8 7

2 9 6 .6
0 .7

2 9 7 .1

- 0 .7

- 2 .1

1 .4

1 .7

5 .7

0 .5

0 .5

1
.6

1 1
.1 .2
2 2 .5
.2

2 9 5 .5
2 9 9 .6
-1 .9

2 9 8 .2

2 .3

0 .7

3 .3

3 .7

3 .0

5 .5

7 .8

3 0 0 .6
3 0 6 .3

0 .5

0 .5

-0 .9

1 .9

3 .0

2 .9

0 1 .1
.6 1

1 .9

1 -0 .1
.0
2 2
.6 .0
2 2 .7 2
.1
.2

0 .4

1
.8

3 .0

3 .0

1 .4

2
.1

2 .3

2 .9

2 .5

3 .2

3 .2

3 .4

3 .7

4 .3

4 .2

5 .0

5 .3

2 6
.1 .0
8
.6
4 .9

3 .7

4 .0

4 .7

4 .6

5 .4

5 .7

5 .3

2 .9

3 .1

3 .6

3 .4

4 .0

4 .1

3 -8 6

4 -8 6

1 -8 9

2 -8 9

16 26
-6 -6

-9 .0

2 9 9 .2

7 .1

3 0 7 .2
3 .2

3 0 9 .6

3 .5

3 .9

7 .8

1 .2
0

1 6 .6

6 .5

7 .8

9 .4

1 2 .3

7 .9

3 .6

5 .8

4 .8

5 .2

5 .6

0 .4

-6 .5

3 -8 9

4 -8 9

1 -9 0

2 -9 0

3 -9 0

4 -9 0

1 -9 1

3 1 2 .6
3 2 5 .0
3 3 1 .2
3 2 5 .7

P re p a re d b y F e d e ra l R e s e rv e Bank o f S t . L o u is
O c to b e r 2 9 , 1991

23

F e d e r a l

N o n d e f e n s e

E x p e n d it u r e s

(C o m p o u n d e d A n n u a l R a te s o f C h a n g e )
T e r m in a l
Q u a rte r

I n i t i a l Q u a rte r

38
-6

4 -8 6

1 -8 7

2 -8 7

3 -8 7

4 -8 7

1 8 28
-8 -8

3 -8 8

4 -8 8

1 -8 9

2 -8 9

3 -8 9

4 -8 9

1 -9 0

2 -9 0

3 -9 0

4 -9 0

B i l l i o n s o f D o lla r s
A nnu al R a te s
1 -9 1
7 6 2 .1

4 -8 6

5 .9

1 -8 7

5 .7

5 .4

2 -8 7

2
.8

1 .3

- 2 .6

3 -8 7

1 .7

0 .4

-2 .1

4 -8 7

18
-8
28
-8
3 -8 8
4 -8 8
1 -8 9
2 -8 9
3 -8 9
4 -8 9
1 -9 0
2 -9 0
3 -9 0
4 -9 0

7 7 2 .2
7 6 7 .2
- 1 .6

7 6 4 .2
8 0 5 .7

5 .8

5 .7

5 .8

1 0 .3

2 3 .6

4 .3

4 .0

3 .6

5 .8

9 .6
8 .5

1 6
.6 .2

4 .6

4 .3

4 .1

3 .3

2 .9

2 .5

3 .5

4 .9

5 .9

7 .4

9 .3

6
.0

9 .8

7 .3

5 .9

5 .9

6 6 .7 8
.6
.1
6 6 6 7 .4
.1 .1 .2
6 .5

5 .2

5 .1

5 .1

6 6 6
.0 .0 .0
6
.8
6 .7
6 6 .9 7 .0
.8

6 .7

6 .3

6 .3

6 6
.6 .6

6 .4
6 .7

1 -8 7




8 .9

9 .0

3 .0

6 .9

7 .9

7 .4

7 .7

8 .7

7 .2

8 .5

7 .8

8 .7

7 .4

8 .5

8 1 1 .4
.8
8 1 .0
.8 1

7 .1

7 .9

6 .5

7 .5

7 .7

7 .4

8
.1

7 .0

7 .9

5 .3

5 .8

4 .5

7 .4

6 .3

3 -8 7

4 -8 7

7 .6

1 0 .4

8 7 9 .8

1 2 .5
7 .2

6
.1

2 -8 7

8 5 4 .2

1 4 .0

4 .7

6 6 6 6
.1 .2 .2 .8
4 -8 6

1 .6 2 9 .1
0
1 .0 1 .2 2 .6
0 1 0
9 .1

6 .9

4 .9

3 -8 6

8 0 1 .3

- 5 .3

8 .3

2 -9 1

4 .8

0 .3

6 6
.0 .0

1 -9 1

4 .8

- 0 .7

8 1 2 .3

6 .4

5 .9

8 .7

8 0 0 .1

-2 .8

5 .9

6
.1
8
.1

2
.1

8 8 4 .3
8 7 3 .5

- 1 .4

- 4 .8

4 .1

5 .1

1 6 .0

9 0 6 .6

7 .0

8 .7

1 6 .2

1 6 .4

8 .3

7 .4

8
.8

1 3 .7

1 .6
2

9 .0

9 .4

6
.8

5 .9

6 .7

9 .8

7 .8

3 .7

-1 .3

8
.1

9 .6

7 .4

6 .7

7 .5

1 .2
0

8 .7

6 .3

5 .0

5 .2

5 .1

6
.1

3 .9

2
.8

2 .9

4 .3

-1 .2

-4 .4

7 .0

7 .1

8 .3

6 .4

5 .7

6
.2

7 .9

4 .7

3 .7

5 .4

2 .4

3 2 .2

4 -8 8

1 -8 9

1 -9 0

2 -9 0

3 -9 0

4 -9 0

1 -9 1

18 28 38
-8 -8 -8

2 -8 9

3 -8 9

2
.1
6
.6
4 -8 9

9 4 1 .6
9 6 2 .1
9 5 9 .0
1 1 .7

9 8 5 .8

- 5 .9 -2 0 .7

9 3 0 .2
9 9 7 .4

P re p a ra d by F e d e ra l R e se rv e Bank o f S t . L o u is
O cto b e r 2 9 , 1991

24


Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, One Federal Reserve Bank Plaza, St. Louis, MO 63102