Full text of National Economic Trends : November 1991
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N a tio n a l E c o n o m ic T r e n d s November 1991 The a n n o u n c e m e n t th a t re a l G N P a c c e le r a t e d at an a n n u a l ra te o f 2 .4 p e r c e n t in th e t h ir d q u a rte r has m a n y a n a ly s t s p r o c l a im in g a n e n d t o t h e c u r r e n t r e c e s s io n . T h e g r o w t h o f r e a l G N P — t h e b r o a d e s t m e a s u r e o f n a t io n a l e c o n o m ic a c t i v it y — is im p o r t a n t in d a t in g c y c lic a l t u r n in g p o in t s ; h o w e v e r , th e C y c l e D a t in g C o m m it t e e o f th e N B E R o t h e r e c o n o m ic e x a m in a t io n t im e o f th e s e s e r ie s . L is t e d s e r ie s r e v e a ls b e lo w a re 2 0 th a t n in e s e r ie s o f th e m th a t h a v e b o tto m e d been in th e used fir s t to d e t e r m in e q u a rte r w h ile t y p ic a lly c o n s id e r s m a n y th e s e p e a k s and e ig h t a p p e a r to tro u g h s . have t h e ir t r o u g h s i n t h e s e c o n d q u a r t e r . F o r t h e r e m a in in g t h r e e s e r ie s , t h e t r o u g h is n o t c l e a r l y d e f in e d . T h is lis t in g A n re a c h e d s u g g e s ts t h a t t h e r e c e s s io n e n d e d e a r l ie r t h is y e a r , t h o u g h m u c h o f t h e g e n e r a l p u b lic t h in k s o t h e r w is e . O n e p la u s ib le e x p la n a t io n f o r t h is to s k e p t ic is m b o tto m , is t h a t t h e e m p lo y m e n t - r e la t e d th e p u b lic p e r c e iv e s c o n t in u in g s e r ie s r e c e s s io n , o fte n la g d e s p it e o t h e r in d ic a t o r s . o th e r s ig n a ls to th e S in c e s o m e o f th e s e s e r ie s h a v e y e t co n tra ry . R e c e n t T r o u g h s in S e le c te d E c o n o m ic S e rie s U s e d to D a te C y c lic a l T u r n in g P o in ts Ja n u a ry 1991 D is p o s a b le P e r s o n a l I n c o m e ( 1 9 8 2 d o lla r s ) P e r s o n a l C o n s u m p t io n E x p e n d it u r e s (1 9 8 2 d o lla r s ) R e t a i l S a le s ( 1 9 8 2 d o l l a r s ) F e b ru a ry F i n a l S a le s ( m id d le m o n t h o f q u a r t e r ; 1982 d o lla r s ) P e r s o n a l I n c o m e ( 1 9 8 2 d o lla r s ) P e rs o n a l In c o m e L e s s T ra n s fe r P a y m e n ts M a rch ( 1 9 8 2 d o lla r s ) I n d e x o f C o in c id e n t I n d ic a t o r s I n d u s t r ia l P r o d u c t io n M a n u f a c t u r in g A p r il and T ra d e E m p lo y e e H o u r s in N o n fa rm S a le s ( 1 9 8 2 d o l l a r s ) N o n fa rm E s t a b lis h m e n t s E m p lo y m e n t ( e s t a b lis h m e n t s u r v e y ) W a g e s a n d S a la r ie s in G o o d s - P r o d u c in g M ay A v e r a g e W e e k ly G N P V a lu e ( m id d le m o n t h o f Goods Ju n e C iv ilia n ? E m p lo y e e s in o f q u a rte r; U n e m p lo y m e n t R a t e 9 V ie w s 1 9 8 2 d o lla r s ) N o n fa rm 1 9 8 2 d o lla r s ) ( in v e r t e d b a s is ) G o o d s - P r o d u c in g E m p lo y m e n t in T o ta l C iv ilia n ( 1 9 8 2 d o lla r s ) ( i n v e r t e d b a s is ) O u t p u t ( m id d le m o n t h o f q u a r t e r ; N u m b e r o f P e r s o n s U n e m p lo y e d 9 I n d u s t r ie s I n s u r e d U n e m p lo y m e n t R a t e ( i n v e r t e d b a s is ) I n d u s t r ie s A c t iv it ie s ( h o u s e h o ld su rve y) E m p lo y m e n t — K e v in T H E F E D E R A L R E S E R V E H A N K o f ST. L O IT S e x p r e s s e d d o n o t n e c e s s a r ily r e f le c t o f f ic i a l p o s it io n s o f t h e F e d e r a l R e s e r v e S y s t e m . L . K lie s e n C o n s u m e r P r i c e I n d e x - All U r b a n C o n s u m e r s Percent Change From Previous Year Seasonally Adjusted Percent Percent 8 1986 1985 1987 1989 1988 1991 1990 Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis C o n s u m e r P r i c e I n d e x (C o m p o u n d e d A n n u a l R a te s o f C h a n g e ) T t r a ir a l M on th I n i t i a l M onth 2 -9 0 3 -9 0 4 -9 0 3 -9 0 4 .8 4 -9 0 3 .8 2.8 5 -9 0 3 .2 2 .4 1 .9 6 -9 0 4 .3 4 .1 4 .7 5 -9 0 6 -9 0 7 -9 0 8 -9 0 9 -9 0 1 0 -9 0 1 1 -9 0 1 2 -9 0 1 9 8 2 -8 4 * 1 0 0 1 -9 1 2 -9 1 5 .1 5 .4 5 .2 5 .2 4 .5 3 .7 2 .9 2 .7 2 .4 0 .9 - 0 .9 4 -9 1 4 .7 4 .7 4 .9 5 .2 4 .9 4 .9 4 .2 3 .5 2 .9 2 .7 2 .5 1 .5 0 .9 1 -9 1 4 .4 4 .3 5 .4 5 .5 4 .7 1 3 0 .5 1 3 1 .6 1 3 2 .6 7 .5 1 3 3 .4 5 .6 3 .7 4 .9 3 .7 3 .6 5 .1 4 .3 4 .6 5 .5 4 .6 3 .9 3 .9 4 .1 2 .7 1 3 3 .8 5 -9 1 4 .7 4 .6 4 .8 5 .0 4 .8 4 .8 4 .2 3 .5 3 .0 6 -9 1 4 .5 4 .5 4 .6 4 .8 4 .6 4 .6 4 .0 3 .4 2 .9 7 -9 1 4 .4 4 .4 4 .5 4 .7 4 .5 4 .4 3 .9 3 .4 2 .9 8 -9 1 4 .3 4 .3 4 .4 4 .6 4 .3 4 .3 3 .8 3 .3 2 .9 2.8 2.8 2.8 9 -9 1 4 .3 4 .3 4 .4 4 .6 4 .3 4 .3 3 .9 3 .4 3 .0 3 .0 2 -9 0 3 -9 0 4 -9 0 5 -9 0 6 -9 0 7 -9 0 8 -9 0 The C P I i s 8 -9 1 1 2 9 .2 4 .9 1 2 -9 0 7 -9 1 1 3 0 .0 4 .9 1 1 -9 0 6 -9 1 7 .7 3 -9 1 1 0 -9 0 5 -9 1 1 2 9 .0 2 -9 1 9 -9 0 4 -9 1 1 2 8 .7 6.2 4 . 7 6.2 7 . 6 7 . 6 10.6 6.0 6.2 6.8 8.1 8.2 10.1 9 . 5 6.1 6 . 3 6 . 9 8.0 8.1 9 . 2 8 . 5 6.0 6 . 5 7 . 2 7 . 2 7 . 8 6 . 9 5 .9 5 .6 5 .7 6.1 6 . 7 6.6 6 . 9 6.0 5 .6 5 .7 6.0 6.6 6 . 4 6 . 7 5 . 9 5 .4 5 .4 5 .7 6.1 5 . 9 6.1 5 . 4 7 -9 0 8 -9 0 3 -9 1 2 .9 1 3 4 .2 2 .7 2 .7 2 .7 2 .7 2 .9 9 -9 0 1 0 -9 0 1 1 -9 0 1 2 -9 0 1 3 4 .8 1 3 5 .1 2.0 1.8 2.1 2.0 2.2 2.1 2 .3 2.2 2.6 2.6 1 -9 1 2 -9 1 1 3 5 .0 2 .7 1 3 5 .3 3 .2 3 .6 3 .0 3 .1 2 .7 2 .9 3 .0 2 .7 1 3 5 .7 1 3 6 .0 2 .7 1 3 6 .3 2 .9 2 .9 2 .7 2 .7 2 .7 3 .1 3 .2 3 .1 3 .3 3 .6 4 .5 3 -9 1 - 4 - 9 1 5 -9 1 6 -9 1 7 -9 1 8 -9 1 1 3 6 .6 1 3 7 .1 f o r a l l u rb a n c o n s u m e rs . P re p a re d b y F e d e ra l R e s e rv e Bank o f S t . L o u is O cto b e r 1 7 , 1991 C o n s u m e r P r i c e I n d e x - F o o d ( C o m p o u n d e d A n n u a l R a le s o f C h a n g e ) T e r m in a l M o n th 1 98 2-84 *1 00 I n i t i a l M o n th 2 -9 0 3 -9 0 4 -9 0 5 -9 0 6 -9 0 7 -9 0 8 -9 0 3 -9 0 1.8 4 -9 0 0 .5 -0 .9 5 -9 0 0 .3 -0 .5 6 -9 0 2 .3 2 .5 4 .2 8 .5 7 -9 0 3 .1 3 .5 5 .0 7 .5 6 .5 8 -9 0 3 .2 3 .5 4 .6 6.2 5 .1 3 .7 9 -9 0 3 .3 3 .5 4 .4 5 .6 4 .6 3 .7 3 .7 9 -9 0 1 0 -9 0 1 1 -9 0 1 2 -9 0 1 -9 1 2 -9 1 3 -9 1 4 -9 1 5 -9 1 6 -9 1 7 -9 1 8 -9 1 1 3 1 .3 1 3 1 .2 0.0 1 3 1 .2 1 3 2 .1 1 3 2 .8 1 3 3 .2 1 3 3 .6 1 0 -9 0 3 .5 3 .7 4 .5 5 .4 4 .6 4 .0 4 .1 4 .6 1 1 -9 0 3 .7 3 .9 4 .6 5 .4 4 .8 4 .4 4 .6 5 .0 1 3 4 .1 5 .5 1 3 4 .7 1 2 -9 0 3 .5 3 .7 4 .3 4 .9 4 .3 3 .8 3 .9 3 .9 3 .6 1.8 1 -9 1 3 .8 4 .0 4 .6 5 .2 4 .7 4 .4 4 .6 4 .8 4 .9 4 .5 1 3 4 .9 7 .4 1 3 5 .7 2 -9 1 3 .3 3 .4 3 .9 4 .3 3 .8 3 .4 3 .3 3 .3 2 .9 3 -9 1 3 .2 3 .4 3 .7 4 .1 3 .7 3 .3 3 .2 3 .2 2 .9 2.1 2.2 - 2 . 6 2.2 2 . 4 0.0 2 .7 4 -9 1 3 .7 3 .8 4 .2 4 .6 4 .2 3 .9 4 .0 4 .0 3 .9 3 .6 4 .1 3 .0 5 .9 9 .2 5 -9 1 3 .4 3 .5 3 .9 4 .2 3 .8 3 .5 3 .5 3 .5 3 .3 3 .0 3 .2 2.2 3 .9 4 .5 0.0 6 -9 1 3 .6 3 .7 4 .0 4 .4 4 .0 3 .8 3 .8 3 .8 3 .7 3 .5 3 .7 3 .0 4 .5 5 .1 3 .1 6 .3 7 -9 1 2 .9 3 .0 3 .3 3 .5 3 .1 2 .9 2.8 2 .7 2 .5 2.1 2.2 -0 .3 - 0 .4 - 6 .8 8 -9 1 2.6 2.6 2.8 3 .0 2 .7 2 .4 2 .3 - 1 .1 - 1 .5 - 5 .1 - 3 .5 9 -9 1 2 .5 2 .5 2 .7 2 .9 2 .5 2 .3 -0 .7 - 0 .9 -3 .2 - 1 .3 0 .9 2 -9 0 3 -9 0 4 -9 0 5 -9 0 6 -9 0 7 -9 0 4 -9 1 5 -9 1 6 -9 1 7 -9 1 8 -9 1 2.1 1 .9 2.1 2.0 1.8 8 -9 0 1 .5 1 .4 1 .4 1 .4 9 -9 0 1 0 -9 0 1 1 -9 0 1 2 -9 0 1 3 5 .4 1 3 5 .7 2.1 2.0 0.6 1.2 0 . 9 0 .7 1.1 0 .9 1 .3 1 -9 1 2 -9 1 3 -9 1 1 3 6 .7 1 3 6 .7 1 3 7 .4 1 3 6 .6 1 3 6 .2 1 3 6 .3 P r e p a r e d b y F e d e r a l R e s e r v e Bank o f S t . L o u is O c to b e r 1 7 , 1991 C o n s u m e r P r i c e I n d e x - E n e r g y (C o m p o u n d e d A n n u a l R a te s o f C h a n g e ) T e r m in a l M o n th I n i t i a l H o n th 2 -9 0 3 -9 0 -8 .3 4 -9 0 -4 .2 5 -9 0 -4 .0 6 -9 0 -1 .2 7 -9 0 -1 .7 3 -9 0 4 -9 0 5 -9 0 6 -9 0 7 -9 0 8 -9 0 9 -9 0 1 0 -9 0 1 1 -9 0 1 2 -9 0 - 1 .8 4 -9 1 5 -9 1 6 -9 1 7 -9 1 8 -9 1 9 6 .8 -3 .7 1.2 1 . 9 0.0 0.0 9 6 .5 7 .7 1 .9 9 7 .1 -3 .6 9 6 .8 7 .3 1 0 .7 1 3 .6 20.0 2 6 .7 6 6 .5 1 6 .2 20.8 2 5 .5 3 4 .0 4 4 .2 7 6 .4 86.8 1 0 -9 0 2 1 .3 2 6 .3 3 1 .3 3 9 .6 4 9 .0 7 2 .3 7 5 .3 6 4 .4 1 1 -9 0 1 9 .4 2 3 .5 2 7 .2 3 3 .3 3 9 .1 5 2 .4 4 8 .0 3 1 .7 1 2 -9 0 1 6 .7 1 9 .9 12.0 1 4 .3 6.6 8.0 101.0 1 0 6 .4 1 1 0 .9 5 .5 1 1 1 .4 22.6 2 6 .9 3 0 .4 3 8 .6 3 2 .4 1 8 .0 1 6 .0 1 8 .7 2 0 .4 2 4 .9 1 8 .0 5 .2 8 .9 1 0 .4 1 0 .7 1 2 .9 5 .8 - 5 .5 -1 7 .8 -2 4 .3 - 3 2 .4 - 3 8 .5 0.0 -5 .3 1 1 0 .9 - 9 .4 - 1 6 .0 - 2 5 .6 1 0 8 .2 1 0 3 .9 3 -9 1 3 .5 4 .5 5 .0 5 .9 5 .7 6 .9 0 .3 - 9 . 5 - 1 9 .7 - 2 5 .0 - 3 0 .7 -3 3 .1 - 2 7 .1 4 -9 1 2.6 3 .5 3 .8 4 .5 4 .2 5 .1 -0 .7 • 9 .3 - 1 7 .9 - 2 1 .9 -2 5 .6 -2 5 .6 - 1 8 .1 5 -9 1 3 .6 4 .5 4 .9 5 .6 5 .4 6 .4 3 .4 3 .6 4 .2 3 .9 4 .6 2 .9 3 .0 3 .5 3 .2 3 .8 1.2 1 0 0 .5 1 8 .1 1 0 1 .9 - 7 .5 4 .2 -0 .1 - 6 .8 - 1 3 .2 - 1 5 .6 - 1 7 .2 - 1 5 .4 -8 .4 - 1 .2 2 .4 - 1 1 . 2 -0 .5 - 6 .6 -1 2 .3 -1 4 .3 - 1 5 .5 -1 3 .7 - 7 .7 - 2 .1 0.0 - 6 .2 - 1 1 .4 - 1 3 .1 - 1 4 .0 -1 2 .2 - 6 .8 -2 .1 -4 .8 2.6 2.2 8 -9 1 1 .9 2 .5 2 .7 3 .1 2.8 3 .3 -0 .7 9 -9 1 2 .4 3 .1 3 .3 3 .7 3 .4 4 .0 0 .3 2 -9 0 3 -9 0 4 -9 0 5 -9 0 6 -9 0 7 -9 0 8 -9 0 101.2 -8 .0 - 6 .3 - 1 3 .5 -1 6 .3 - 1 8 .4 -1 6 .5 7 -9 1 6 -9 1 3 -9 1 9 6 .8 9 -9 0 2 -9 1 2 -9 1 0.0 8 -9 0 1 -9 1 1 98 2 -8 4 * 1 0 0 1 -9 1 - 9 .4 -1 0 .8 -1 1 .4 -9 .4 - 4 .3 9 -9 0 1 0 -9 0 1 1 -9 0 1 2 -9 0 1 -9 1 2 -9 1 0.2 3 -9 1 1 0 0 .9 -8 .0 -4 .7 -0 .6 -6 .1 - 3 .5 1 .9 - 1 .8 4 -9 1 5 -9 1 1.6 6 -9 1 1 0 0 .5 -2 .4 4 .9 7 -9 1 1 0 0 .3 12.6 1 0 1 .3 8 -9 1 P re p a re d b y F e d e ra l R e se rv e Bank o f S t . L o u is O cto b e r 1 7 , 1991 3 P r o d u c e r Price Ind e x — Finished G o o d s Percent Change From Previous Year Seasonally Adjusted Percent Percent 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis P r o d u c e r P r i c e I n d e x - F in is h e d G o o d s (C o m p o u n d e d A n n u a l R a te s o f C h a n g e ) T e r a in a l M onth I n i t i a l M o n th 2 -9 0 3 -9 0 3 -9 0 - 1 .0 4 -9 0 -1 .0 -1 .0 5 -9 0 0 .7 1 .5 6 -9 0 0 .5 7 -9 0 1.2 4 -9 0 5 -9 0 6 -9 0 7 -9 0 8 -9 0 9 -9 0 1 0 -9 0 1 1 -9 0 1 2 -9 0 198 2 * 100 1 -9 1 2 -9 1 3 -9 1 4 -9 1 6 -9 1 7 -9 1 8 -9 1 1 1 7 .3 1 1 7 .2 4 .2 1 1 7 .6 2.1 0.0 2.8 2.1 1 1 7 .6 4 .2 1 1 8 .0 8 -9 0 3 .3 5 .5 5 .9 9 .0 1 4 .1 9 -9 0 5 .0 7 .5 8 .4 1 1 .3 1 5 .1 1 6 .2 1 0 -9 0 6 .3 8 .9 9 .9 1 2 .5 1 5 .4 1 6 .1 1 6 .0 8 .3 9 .0 1 0 .9 1 2 .7 1 1 -9 0 6.2 1 2 -9 0 5 .0 5 .7 1 -9 1 4 .7 2 -9 1 3 -9 1 1 1 9 .3 120.8 1 2 2 .3 122.8 1 2 .3 1 0 .4 9 .0 7 .7 5 .1 0.0 - 4 .8 5 .2 6.6 6 . 9 8.2 6.0 6.2 7 . 1 7 .6 6 .4 4 .0 0 .3 - 1 .9 3 .5 3 .9 4 .4 4 .4 5 .0 5 .1 3 .7 1 .4 -1 .9 - 4 .2 - 3 .9 - 8 .5 3 .0 3 .3 3 .7 3 .7 4 .1 4 .1 2 .7 0 .7 - 2 .1 -3 .9 - 3 .5 -5 .7 - 2 .9 5 .0 1 2 2 .3 1.0 1 2 2 .4 1 2 1 .5 121.2 4 -9 1 2.8 3 .1 3 .5 3 .4 3 .8 3 .7 2 .5 0 .7 -1 .6 -2 .9 - 2 .4 -3 .5 -1 .0 5 -9 1 3 .1 3 .4 3 .7 3 .7 4 .0 4 .0 2 .9 1 .4 -0 .6 - 1 .5 - 0 .8 -1 .2 1 .3 3 .5 6.1 6 -9 1 2 .5 2.8 3 .1 -1 .1 - 1 .9 - 1 .5 -1 .9 - 0 .2 0 .7 0 .5 - 0 .7 7 -9 1 2.2 2 .4 8 -9 1 2 .3 2 .5 9 -9 1 2.2 2 .4 2 -9 0 5 -9 1 3 -9 0 2.1 0 . 7 2 .7 2.6 1.6 0 . 3 2 .7 2 .5 2.6 2.8 2 . 7 1.8 0 . 5 2 .7 2.6 2 . 5 2.6 2 . 5 1 .7 0.6 4 -9 0 3 .0 5 -9 0 3 .2 6 -9 0 3 .1 7 -9 0 8 -9 0 1.0 1 2 1 .3 1 2 1 .9 -4 .8 1 2 1 .4 121.1 -1 .3 - 2 .1 -1 .7 -2 .1 - 0 .8 - 0 .2 -0 .9 - 1 .5 -1 .1 -1 .4 - 0 .2 0 .4 0.2 -1 .6 0.0 3 .0 1 2 1 .4 -0 .7 - 1 .3 - 0 .9 -1 .1 0 .5 0 .4 -1 .0 0 .3 2.0 1.0 1 2 1 .5 9 - 9 0 1 0 -9 0 1 1 -9 0 1 2 -9 0 1 -9 1 3 -9 1 4 -9 1 5 -9 1 6 -9 1 0.0 2 -9 1 -3 .9 -2 .9 7 -9 1 8 -9 1 P re p a re d b y F e d e ra l R e s e rv e Bank o f S t . L o u is O cto b e r 1 1 , 1991 4 Civilian E m p l o y m e n t a n d U n e m p l o y m e n t R a t e Seasonally Adjusted P e rc e n t M illio n s o f P e r s o n s 1986 1985 1987 1989 1988 1990 1991 Shaded area represents a period of business recession. Percentages are annual rates of change for periods indicated. Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis C i v i l i a n E m p lo y m e n t (C o m p o u n d e d A n n u a l R a te s o f C h a n g e ) T e r a in a l H o n th I n i t i a l H o n th 2 -9 0 4 -9 0 1.6 0.1 5 -9 0 0 .7 6 -9 0 0 .4 7 -9 0 -0 .4 8 -9 0 3 -9 0 3 -9 0 4 -9 0 5 -9 0 6 -9 0 7 -9 0 8 -9 0 9 -9 0 1 0 -9 0 1 1 -9 0 1 2 -9 0 1 -9 1 2 -9 1 Thousands o f P e rso n s 3 -9 1 4 -9 1 5 -9 1 6 -9 1 7 -9 1 8 -9 1 1 1 8 ,2 3 5 - 1 .5 0.2 0.0 1 1 8 ,0 9 0 1 .9 1 1 8 ,2 7 7 0 .7 - 0 .4 - 0 .9 - 0 .7 -2 .0 -3 .5 -0 .6 - 1 .1 - 1 .0 -2 .0 -2 .7 9 -9 0 -0 .3 -0 .6 - 0 .4 -1 .0 -1 .2 1 0 -9 0 -0 .4 - 0 .7 - 0 .6 - 1 .1 1 1 -9 0 -o .e -1 .1 - 1 .0 1 2 -9 0 -0 .5 - 0 .7 1 -9 1 -1 .1 2 -9 1 1 1 8 ,2 3 7 1 1 7 ,8 8 2 -1 .9 1 1 7 ,6 9 0 -1 .3 0.0 2.0 -0 .5 0.2 -1 .5 - 1 .5 - 1 .7 -1 .3 -1 .0 - 2 .5 -3 .5 - 0 .7 - 1 .0 - 1 .1 - 0 .6 - 0 .3 - 1 .0 -0 .8 1 .9 - 1 .3 - 1 .3 -1 .7 - 1 .9 - 1 .6 -1 .6 -2 .4 -2 .7 - 2 .3 - 6 .5 -1 .0 - 1 .2 - 1 .2 - 1 .5 -1 .7 -1 .4 - 1 .3 -2 .0 - 2 .1 -1 .6 - 3 .3 3 -9 1 -1 .0 -1 .3 -1 .2 - 1 .5 -1 .7 - 1 .4 - 1 .4 - 1 .9 -2 .0 - 1 .6 - 2 .8 4 -9 1 - 0 .5 - 0 .7 - 0 .6 -0 .8 - 0 .9 - 0 .5 -0 .4 -0 .7 -0 .6 1 1 7 ,8 8 3 1 1 7 ,7 3 3 1 1 7 ,3 8 6 0.0 1 1 7 ,5 7 4 -0 .4 1 1 6 ,9 2 2 0.0 - 0 .9 1.6 1 1 6 ,9 1 8 - 1 .7 2 .5 1 1 6 ,7 5 4 6.8 1 1 7 ,3 9 8 5 -9 1 -1 .0 - 1 .2 -1 .2 -1 .4 -1 .5 - 1 .3 - 1 .2 -1 .6 - 1 .7 - 1 .3 - 2 .0 - 0 .8 -1 .1 -0 .8 -7 .9 6 -9 1 -0 .« - 0 .9 - 0 .9 - 1 .1 -1 .1 - 0 .9 - 0 .8 - 1 .1 - 1 .1 - 0 .7 - 1 .2 - 0 .1 - 0 .1 0 .4 -2 .6 3 .1 7 -9 1 - 0 .8 - 1 .0 - 0 .9 - 1 .1 -1 .2 - 1 .0 - 0 .9 -1 .2 - 1 .2 -0 .9 - 1 .3 -0 .4 -0 .4 -0 .1 - 2 .3 0.6 8 -9 1 -0 .9 - 1 .1 -1 .1 - 1 .3 - 1 .3 -1 .1 -1 .1 -1 .4 - 1 .3 -1 .1 - 1 .5 - 0 .7 -0 .9 -0 .7 - 2 .5 -0 .6 9 -9 1 - 0 .5 - 0 .6 -0 .6 - 0 .7 - 0 .7 - 0 .5 -0 .4 -0 .6 - 0 .5 - 0 .2 -0 .5 0 .3 0 .4 0 .7 -0 .5 1 .5 2 -9 0 3 -9 0 4 -9 0 5 -9 0 6 -9 0 7 -9 0 8 -9 0 9 -9 0 1 0 -9 0 1 1 -9 0 1 2 -9 0 1 -9 1 2 -9 1 3 -9 1 4 -9 1 5 -9 1 1 1 6 ,5 9 1 1 1 6 ,8 8 4 -1 .8 -2 .4 1.0 6 -9 1 1 1 6 ,7 1 2 -3 .0 2 .4 7 -9 1 1 1 6 ,4 1 6 8.0 1 1 7 ,1 6 5 8 -9 1 P re p a re d b y F e d e ra l R e se rv e Bank o f S t . L o u is O cto b e r 4 , 1991 Payroll E m p l o y m e n t Seasonally Adjusted 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 Shaded area represents a period of business recession. Percentages are annual rates of change for periods indicated. Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis P a y r o l l E m p lo y m e n t (C o m p o u n d e d A n n u a l R a te s o f C h a n g e ) T e r m in a l M on th 2 -9 0 3 -9 0 4 -9 0 5 -9 0 6 -9 0 7 -9 0 8 -9 0 I n i t i a l M o n th P e rso n s 9 -9 0 1 0 -9 0 1 1 -9 0 1 2 -9 0 8 -9 0 1.6 0.8 0.0 2.0 4 .1 1 .9 1.8 1.8 2.8 1.0 0 . 9 1.2 0 .7 0 .5 0.6 -0 .5 - 1 .5 - 1 .2 9 -9 0 0 .5 0 .3 -0 .5 - 1 .2 -0 .8 -0 .5 1 0 -9 0 0 .3 0.1 0.1 - 0 .7 - 1 .2 - 1 .0 - 1 .0 - 1 .4 1 1 -9 0 0.0 3 -9 0 4 -9 0 5 -9 0 6 -9 0 7 -9 0 0 .4 T housands o f 1 -9 1 2 -9 1 3 -9 1 4 -9 1 5 -9 1 6 -9 1 7 -9 1 8 -9 1 1 0 9 ,9 3 3 1 0 9 /9 3 4 1 1 0 ,3 0 4 1 .4 -0 .2 1 1 0 ,4 3 5 -1 .8 1 1 0 ,2 6 9 1 1 0 ,1 6 0 1 1 0 ,1 1 3 1 0 9 ,9 8 2 - 0 .2 - 0 .3 -1 .0 - 1 .5 - 1 .4 -1 .4 -1 .9 - 2 .4 - 1 .8 - 2 .0 1 2 -9 0 - 0 .2 -0 .4 -0 .4 - 1 .1 - 1 .5 -1 .4 -1 .5 1 -9 1 -0 .4 -0 .6 - 0 .6 -1 .2 - 1 .6 -1 .5 -1 .6 2 -9 1 - 0 .6 - 0 .8 - 0 .8 -1 .4 -1 .7 - 1 .7 -1 .8 - 2 .1 3 -9 1 -0 .7 - 0 .9 - 1 .0 -1 * 5 -1 .8 - 1 .9 - 1 .9 4 -9 1 -0 .8 - 1 .0 -1 .1 - 1 .5 -1 .8 - 1 .8 - 1 .9 1 0 9 ,7 6 1 - 1 .5 1 0 9 ,6 2 1 - 1 .9 -2 .2 -2 .2 - 2 .2 - 2 .5 -2 .2 -2 .3 - 2 .3 - 2 .6 -2 .8 - 2 .8 -2 .1 -2 .3 - 2 .2 -2 .4 -2 .5 -2 .3 1 0 9 ,4 1 8 -2 .8 1 0 9 ,1 6 0 1 0 8 ,9 0 2 -1 .8 1 0 8 ,7 3 6 5 -9 1 - 0 .7 - 0 .8 - 0 .9 -1 .3 - 1 .5 -1 .5 - 1 .5 - 1 .7 - 1 .7 - 1 .6 - 1 .6 - 1 .4 -1 .0 -0 .1 1 .7 1 0 8 ,8 8 7 6 -9 1 -0 .6 -0 .8 -0 .8 -1 .2 -1 .4 - 1 .4 - 1 .4 - 1 .5 - 1 .5 - 1 .4 - 1 .3 - 1 .2 - 0 .8 -0 .1 0.8 0.0 1 0 8 ,8 8 5 -0 .1 0 .5 7 -9 1 -0 .6 -0 .7 -0 .8 -1 .1 - 1 .3 -1 .3 -1 .3 - 1 .4 -1 .4 -1 .2 -1 .2 -1 .0 - 0 .7 8 -9 1 - 0 .5 -0 .6 - 0 .7 - 1 .0 - 1 .2 -1 .1 -1 .1 - 1 .2 -1 .1 - 1 .0 - 0 .9 -0 .8 - 0 .4 9 -9 1 -0 .5 - 0 .6 -0 .6 -0 .9 -1 .1 - 1 .0 - 1 .0 -1 .0 - 1 .0 -0 .9 -0 .8 - 0 .6 -0 .3 2 -9 0 3 -9 0 4 -9 0 5 -9 0 6 -9 0 7 -9 0 8 -9 0 9 - 9 0 1 0 -9 0 1 1 -9 0 1 2 -9 0 1 -9 1 2 -9 1 -0 .2 0.1 0.6 0.2 0.1 0 . 5 0.2 3 -9 1 4 -9 1 5 -9 1 -0 .3 1 0 8 ,8 5 9 0 .3 0 .9 0 .3 0.6 6 -9 1 7 -9 1 1 0 8 ,9 3 6 0 .3 1 0 8 ,9 6 0 8 -9 1 P re p a re d b y F e d e ra l R e s e rv e Bank o f S t . L o u is O cto b e r 4 , 1991 6 S e r v ic e - P r o d u c in g E m p lo y m e n t (C o m p o u n d e d A n n u a l R a te s o f C h a n g e ) T e r m in a l M o n th I n i t i a l M onth 2 -9 0 3 -9 0 3 .2 4 -9 0 2 .3 3 -9 0 4 -9 0 5 -9 0 3 .4 3 .5 5 .7 3 .2 4 .1 7 -9 0 2 .3 6 -9 0 2.0 2 . 3 1.8 1.6 1.6 9 -9 0 1 .7 1 .4 1 .4 - 1 .4 0 .3 -0 .8 0 .4 6 -9 1 7 -9 1 0 .5 2 -9 1 3 -9 1 4 -9 1 5 -9 1 1 -9 1 2 -9 1 3 -9 1 4 -9 1 5 -9 1 T h o u sa n d s o f P e rso n s 6 -9 1 7 -9 1 8 -9 1 8 5 ,1 6 3 2.6 0.6 1.2 1.2 1 .3 1.1 1.0 0 .3 1.1 0 .9 0.8 0.2 1.0 0.8 0 .7 0.1 0.8 0.6 0 . 5 - 0 . 1 0.6 0 .4 0 . 3 - 0 . 2 0.2 - 0 . 3 0 .5 0 .3 0.6 0 .4 0 . 3 - 0 . 1 0.6 0 .4 0 . 3 - 0 . 1 1 -9 1 9 -9 0 1 0 -9 0 1 1 -9 0 1 2 -9 0 8 4 ,6 7 8 3 .2 1 2 -9 0 8 -9 0 8 4 ,7 6 9 5 -9 0 1 1 -9 0 7 -9 0 1 .3 6 -9 0 1 0 -9 0 6 -9 0 0 .3 1 .5 0 .3 0 .3 8 -9 1 0 .5 0 .4 0 .3 9 -9 1 0 .5 0 .4 0 .3 2 -9 0 3 -9 0 4 -9 0 -0 .1 0.0 0.0 5 -9 0 8 5 ,3 4 2 -0 .3 -0 .2 - 0 .2 -0 .2 8 5 ,2 4 2 8 5 ,2 2 3 -0 .3 0.2 0 .7 0.2 0 .4 0.1 0.1 0 .3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 - 0 . 1 - 0 . 2 0.0 0.0 - 0 . 1 - 0 . 2 8 5 ,2 7 1 8 5 ,2 7 7 8 5 ,2 8 0 -0 .5 8 5 ,2 4 6 - 0 .3 - 0 .1 -0 .4 - 0 .2 -0 .2 -0 .4 - 0 .5 - 0 .7 -0 .9 -1 .6 - 0 .5 - 0 .4 - 0 .4 -0 .6 - 0 .7 - 0 .9 -1 .0 -1 .5 - 1 .3 - 0 .6 -0 .5 - 0 .5 -0 .7 - 0 .8 - 0 .9 -1 .1 - 1 .4 -1 .3 -0 .4 -0 .3 -0 .3 -0 .4 -0 .5 -0 .6 - 0 .6 -0 .7 -0 .4 - 0 .3 - 0 .2 -0 .2 -0 .3 -0 .3 - 0 .4 -0 .4 -0 .4 -0 .1 -0 .3 -0 .2 -0 .2 -0 .3 -0 .3 - 0 .4 - 0 .4 -0 .4 - 0 .2 - 0 .1 - 0 .2 -0 .2 -0 .3 -0 .2 - 0 .2 -0 .1 - 0 .1 - 0 .1 - 0 .1 - 0 .1 9 -9 0 1 0 -9 0 1 1 -9 0 1 2 -9 0 1 -9 1 -0 .2 -0 .2 -0 .1 -0 .2 - 0 .1 6 -9 0 7 -9 0 0.0 8 -9 0 8 5 ,2 3 7 8 5 ,1 2 1 8 5 ,0 2 5 - 1 .2 0.1 8 4 ,9 4 2 1 .4 8 5 ,0 4 0 1.1 0.8 0.1 0.6 0.1 - 0 . 5 0.0 0 .3 0.6 0 .4 0.2 0.8 0.1 0 .4 0 . 7 0 .5 0 .4 0.8 2 -9 1 8 5 ,0 9 3 0 .3 3 -9 1 4 -9 1 5 -9 1 6 -9 1 7 -9 1 8 5 ,0 6 1 8 5 ,1 1 6 0 .9 8 5 ,1 7 7 8 -9 1 P r e p a r e d b y F e d e r a l R e s e r v e Bank o f S t . L o u is O c to b e r 4 , 1991 G o o d s - P r o d u c in g E m p lo y m e n t (C o m p o u n d e d A n n u a l R a te s o f C h a n g e ) T e r m in a l M o n th I n i t i a l M on th 2 -9 0 3 -9 0 4 -9 0 5 -9 0 6 -9 0 7 -9 0 8 -9 0 9 -9 0 1 0 -9 0 1 1 -9 0 1 2 -9 0 1 -9 1 2 -9 1 3 -9 1 4 -9 1 5 -9 1 6 -9 1 7 -9 1 8 -9 1 3 -9 0 - 3 .9 4 -9 0 -4 .1 - 4 .2 5 -9 0 -3 .1 - 2 .7 -1 .1 6 -9 0 - 2 .9 -2 .5 - 1 .7 -2 .3 7 -9 0 -2 .9 -2 .7 - 2 .2 - 2 .7 -3 .1 8 -9 0 -3 .1 -3 .0 - 2 .7 -3 .2 - 3 .7 -4 .2 9 -9 0 -3 .3 - 3 .2 -3 .1 -3 .5 -3 .9 - 4 .4 -4 .5 1 0 -9 0 - 3 .7 -3 .7 -3 .6 - 4 .1 - 4 .6 - 5 .0 -5 .5 -6 .4 1 1 -9 0 - 4 .5 -4 .6 -4 .6 -5 .2 -5 .8 -6 .4 - 7 .1 - 8 .4 - 1 0 .4 1 2 -9 0 - 4 .5 - 4 .6 - 4 .7 -5 .2 -5 .6 - 6 .1 -6 .6 -7 .3 - 7 .8 - 5 .1 1 -9 1 - 5 .0 - 5 .1 -5 .2 -5 .7 -6 .1 - 6 .6 -7 .1 - 7 .8 -8 .2 -7 .1 -9 .1 2 -9 1 -5 .1 - 5 .2 -5 .3 -5 .8 -6 .2 -6 .7 -7 .1 -7 .6 - 7 .9 -7 .0 - 8 .0 -6 .8 3 -9 1 - 5 .3 -5 .5 -5 .6 - 6 .0 -6 .4 - 6 .8 -7 .2 - 7 .6 -7 .9 -7 .2 -7 .9 - 7 .3 -7 .8 4 -9 1 -5 .2 -5 .4 -5 .4 -5 .8 - 6 .2 -6 .5 - 6 .8 -7 .1 -7 .2 - 6 .6 -7 .0 -6 .2 - 6 .0 -4 .1 5 -9 1 - 4 .7 -4 .8 -4 .8 -5 .1 -5 .4 -5 .6 -5 .8 - 5 .9 - 5 .9 - 5 .1 - 5 .1 - 4 .1 -3 .2 - 0 .8 2 .7 6 -9 1 - 4 .6 -4 .7 -4 .7 -5 .0 - 5 .2 - 5 .4 - 5 .5 - 5 .6 - 5 .5 - 4 .8 -4 .7 -3 .8 -3 .1 - 1 .4 -0 .1 7 -9 1 -4 .3 -4 .4 -4 .4 - 4 .6 - 4 .8 - 4 .9 -5 .0 -5 -0 - 4 .9 -4 .2 -4 .0 - 3 .1 - 2 .4 - 1 .0 0.1 -1 .2 0 .3 8 -9 1 -4 .0 -4 .0 -4 .0 -4 .2 -4 .4 -4 .5 -4 .5 - 4 .5 -4 .3 -3 .6 -3 .4 -2 .5 - 1 .8 - 0 .6 0 .3 -0 .5 0 .7 9 -9 1 -3 .9 -3 .9 -3 .9 -4 .1 - 4 .2 - 4 .3 -4 .3 -4 .3 - 4 .1 - 3 .4 - 3 .2 -2 .5 - 1 .8 -0 .8 -0 .1 -0 .8 -0 .2 -0 .4 -1 .8 2 -9 0 3 -9 0 4 -9 0 5 -9 0 6 -9 0 7 -9 0 8 -9 0 9 -9 0 1 0 -9 0 1 1 -9 0 1 2 -9 0 1 -9 1 2 -9 1 3 -9 1 4 -9 1 5 -9 1 6 -9 1 7 -9 1 8 -9 1 T h o u sa n d s o f P e rso n s 2 5 ,2 5 5 2 5 ,1 6 5 2 5 ,1 4 1 2 5 ,0 9 3 2 5 ,0 2 7 2 4 ,9 3 7 2 4 ,8 4 2 2 4 ,7 0 5 2 4 ,4 8 1 2 4 ,3 7 5 2 4 ,1 8 1 2 4 ,0 3 9 2 3 ,8 7 7 2 3 ,7 9 4 2 3 ,8 4 7 -2 .7 2 3 ,7 9 2 2 3 ,7 9 8 1.1 2 3 ,8 2 0 2 3 ,7 8 3 P re p a re d by F e d e ra l R e se rv e Bank o f S t . L o u is O cto b e r 4 , 1991 7 C h a n g e i n t h e E m p l o y m e n t C o s t I n d e x a n d Its C o m p o n e n t s Percent Change From Previous Year Seasonally Adjusted Percent Percent Benefits y \ i / \ / \ \ f / \ 1 . / 1 Total 1Compensation 1 \ / / 1 / ^ \ S / " ■ ✓ L \ ” •— x Wages and iSalaries . / ^ / y y * 1985 1986 ' 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 Total compensation is the sum of benefits and wages and salaries for private industry workers. Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis E m p lo y m e n t C o s t I n d e x - T o t a l C o m p e n s a t io n (C o m p o u n d e d A n n u a l R a te s o f C h a n g e ) T e r a in a l Q u a r te r I n i t i a l Q u a rte r 4 -8 6 1 -8 7 2 -8 7 3 -8 7 4 -8 7 1 -8 8 2 -8 8 3 -8 8 4 -8 8 1 -8 9 J u n e 1989 » 100 3 -8 9 4 -8 9 1 -9 0 2 -9 0 3 -9 0 4 -9 0 1 -9 1 2 -9 1 9 0 .9 1 -8 7 3 .1 2 -8 7 3 .1 3 .1 3 -8 7 3 .4 3 .6 4 .0 4 -8 7 3 .4 3 .5 3 .7 3 .5 3 .8 4 .0 4 .2 4 .4 5 .2 4 .0 4 .2 4 .5 4 .6 5 .2 5 .2 3 -8 8 4 .0 4 .1 4 .3 4 .4 4 .7 4 .5 3 .8 4 -8 8 4 .1 4 .3 4 .5 4 .6 4 .8 4 .7 4 .4 5 .1 1 -8 9 4 .1 4 .3 4 .4 4 .5 4 .7 4 .6 4 .3 4 .6 4 .2 2 -8 9 4 .2 4 .3 4 .5 4 .6 4 .7 4 .6 4 .5 4 .7 4 .5 4 .9 1-88 2-88 2 -8 9 9 1 .6 9 2 .5 9 3 .3 9 4 .5 9 5 .7 9 6 .6 9 7 .8 9 8 .8 100.0 3 -8 9 4 .3 4 .4 4 .6 4 .6 4 .8 4 .7 4 .7 4 .9 4 .8 5 .1 5 .3 4 -8 9 4 .3 4 .4 4 .6 4 .6 4 .8 4 .7 4 .6 4 .8 4 .7 4 .9 4 .9 4 .4 1 0 1 .3 1 -9 0 4 .4 4 .5 4 .7 4 .7 4 .9 4 .8 4 .8 4 .9 4 .9 5 .1 5 .1 5 .0 5 .6 1 0 2 .4 1 0 3 .8 2 -9 0 4 .5 4 .6 4 .7 4 .8 4 .9 4 .8 4 .8 4 .9 4 .9 5 .1 5 .1 5 .0 5 .3 5 .1 3 -9 0 4 .5 4 .5 4 .7 4 .7 4 .8 4 .8 4 .7 4 .9 4 .8 4 .9 4 .9 4 .8 5 .0 4 .7 4 .3 4 -9 0 4 .4 4 .5 4 .6 4 .6 4 .7 4 .7 4 .6 4 .7 4 .7 4 .8 4 .7 4 .6 4 .7 4 .4 4 .0 3 .8 1 -9 1 4 .4 4 .5 4 .6 4 .6 4 .7 4 .7 4 .6 4 .7 4 .7 4 .7 4 .7 4 .6 4 .7 4 .4 4 .2 4 .2 4 .6 2 -9 1 4 .4 4 .5 4 .6 4 .7 4 .7 4 .7 4 .7 4 .7 4 .7 4 .8 4 .7 4 .7 4 .7 4 .5 4 .4 4 .4 4 .7 4 .9 3 -9 1 4 .4 4 .5 4 .6 4 .6 4 .7 4 .7 4 .6 4 .7 4 .7 4 .7 4 .7 4 .6 4 .7 4 .5 4 .4 4 .4 4 .6 4 .7 4 .4 4 -8 6 1 -8 7 2 -8 7 3 -8 7 4 -8 7 3 -8 8 4 -8 8 1 -8 9 2 -8 9 3 -8 9 4 -8 9 1 -9 0 2 -9 0 3 -9 0 4 -9 0 1 -9 1 2 -9 1 1-88 2-88 1 0 5 .1 1 0 6 .2 1 0 7 .2 1 0 8 .4 1 0 9 .7 1 1 0 .9 D ata a re fo r th e la s t ao n th o f q u a rte r. P re p a re d b y F e d e ra l R e s e rv e Bank o f S t . L o u is O cto b e r 2 9 , 1991 8 Industrial P r o d u c t i o n Seasonally Adjusted 1987-100 1987-100 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 Shaded area represents a period of business recession. Percentages are annual rates of change for periods indicated. Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis I n d u s t r i a l P r o d u c t io n (C o m p o u n d e d A n n u a l R a te s o f C h a n g e ) T e r m in a l M o n th I n i t i a l M o n th 2 -9 0 3 -9 0 4 .5 4 -9 0 1 .7 3 -9 0 4 -9 0 5 -9 0 6 -9 0 7 -9 0 8 -9 0 9 -9 0 1 0 -9 0 1 1 -9 0 1 2 -9 0 1987 - 100 1 -9 1 2 -9 1 3 -9 1 4 -9 1 5 -9 1 6 -9 1 7 -9 1 8 -9 1 1 0 8 .9 1 0 8 .8 - 1 .1 5 -9 0 3 .4 2.8 6.8 6 -9 0 4 .5 4 .5 7 .4 8.0 7 -9 0 4 .3 4 .2 6.0 5 .6 8 -9 0 3 .7 3 .6 4 .8 4 .1 9 -9 0 3 .3 3 .1 4 .0 3 .3 1 0 -9 0 1 .9 1.6 2.0 1.1 1 1 -9 0 - 0 .2 - 0 .8 1 2 -9 0 - 1 .4 - 2 .1 1 -9 1 -1 .9 - 2 .5 1 0 9 .4 110.1 1 1 0 .4 3 .3 2.2 1.1 1.8 1.1 1.1 1 1 0 .5 110.6 1 0 9 .9 -0 .5 -1 .8 -3 .2 -2 .0 -3 .9 -5 .6 - 7 . 7 - 1 1 . 8 - 1 6 .1 -2 .2 - 3 .4 -5 .2 - 6 .8 - 8 .7 - 1 1 .7 - 1 3 .9 - 1 1 .5 - 2 .7 -3 .8 - 5 .4 - 6 .8 - 8 .3 - 1 0 .5 - 1 1 .5 -9 .1 -0 .8 -7 .3 1 0 8 .3 1 0 7 .2 - 6 .5 1 0 6 .6 2 -9 1 - 2 .6 - 3 .2 -3 .4 -4 .5 - 5 .9 -7 .2 - 8 .5 - 1 0 .3 -1 1 .0 -9 .3 -8 .1 -9 .7 3 -9 1 - 3 .0 - 3 .6 -3 .8 -4 .8 -6 .1 - 7 .2 -8 .4 - 9 . 9 - 1 0 .4 -8 .9 - 8 .0 -8 .7 - 7 .7 4 -9 1 -2 .4 -2 .9 - 3 .0 -3 .9 -5 .0 -5 .9 -6 .7 -7 .8 -7 .8 - 6 .1 -4 .7 -4 .1 -1 .1 5 .9 5 -9 1 - 1 .6 - 2 .0 - 2 .0 -2 .7 - 3 .7 - 4 .3 -4 .9 - 5 .6 - 5 .4 -3 .5 -1 .8 -0 .6 2 .7 8 .3 1 0 .7 6 -9 1 -0 .8 -1 .2 - 1 .2 -1 .8 -2 .5 -3 .1 - 3 .5 - 4 .0 -3 .5 -1 .6 4 .6 9 .1 1 0 .7 10.6 7 -9 1 -0 .3 - 0 .6 - 0 .6 -1 .1 - 1 .8 -2 .2 -2 .5 -2 .8 -2 .3 -0 .4 5 .3 8.8 9 .8 9 .4 8.1 8 -9 1 -0 .3 -0 .6 - 0 .6 - 1 .0 - 1 .6 -2 .0 -2 .3 -2 .6 -2 .1 - 0 .4 4 .4 7 .0 7 .3 6.2 4 .0 9 -9 1 -0 .2 -0 .5 - 0 .5 -0 .9 -1 .5 - 1 .8 -2 .0 - 2 .3 -1 .8 -0 .2 3 .9 6.0 6.0 4 .9 3 .0 2 -9 0 3 -9 0 4 -9 0 5 -9 0 6 -9 0 7 -9 0 8 -9 0 9 -9 0 1 0 -9 0 1 1 -9 0 1 2 -9 0 5 -9 1 6 -9 1 0.2 1.6 2.6 1 .3 1.1 2 . 3 1.1 2.1 1 -9 1 1 0 5 .7 2 -9 1 1 0 5 .0 3 -9 1 1 0 5 .5 4 -9 1 1 0 6 .4 1 0 7 .3 1 0 8 .0 0.0 0.6 1.1 7 -9 1 1 0 8 .0 1 0 8 .1 8 -9 1 P re p a re d by F e d e ra l R e se rv e Bank o f S t . L o u is O cto b e r 1 7 , 1991 9 P e r s o n a l I n c o m e in 1 9 8 2 Dollars Seasonally Adjusted T r illio n s o f D o lla r s T r illio n s o f D o lla r s 1985 1987 1986 1988 1989 1990 1991 The personal consumption expenditures deflator is used to calculate real personal income Shaded area represents a period of business recession. Percentages are annual rates of change for periods indicated. Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis D is p o s a b le P e r s o n a l I n c o m e i n 1 9 8 2 D o lla r s (C o m p o u n d e d A n n u a l R a te s o f C h a n g e ) I n i t i a l H o n th T e r a in a l H on th 2 -9 0 3 -9 0 3 .3 4 -9 0 0.0 5 -9 0 6 -9 0 7 -9 0 -0 .1 3 -9 0 4 -9 0 5 -9 0 6 -9 0 7 -9 0 8 -9 0 9 -9 0 1 0 -9 0 1 1 -9 0 1 2 -9 0 1 -9 1 2 -9 1 3 -9 1 4 -9 1 5 -9 1 6 -9 1 7 -9 1 B i l l i o n s o f D o lla r s Ann ual R a te s 8 -9 1 2 ,9 0 8 . 7 -3 .1 -1 .7 0.6 - 0 . 2 0.8 0.2 2 ,9 0 1 . 0 - 0 .2 1 .3 1 .3 2 ,9 0 0 . 4 2.8 2.1 2 ,9 0 7 . 1 1 .5 2 ,9 1 0 . 6 8 -9 0 -0 .3 - 1 .0 -0 .4 -0 .5 -2 .1 - 5 .5 9 -9 0 -0 .8 -1 .5 - 1 .2 - 1 .4 -2 .8 -4 .8 - 4 .1 1 0 -9 0 -1 .9 - 2 .6 - 2 .6 - 3 .0 -4 .4 - 6 .3 -6 .7 -9 .2 1 1 -9 0 -1 .4 -2 .0 -1 .8 -2 .1 - 3 .0 -4 .1 -3 .7 - 3 .5 2.6 1 2 -9 0 -0 .7 -1 .2 - 0 .9 - 1 .0 -1 .6 -2 .2 -1 .4 - 0 .5 4 .2 2 ,8 9 6 . 8 2,8 8 6 .8 2 ,8 6 3 . 7 2 ,8 6 9 . 9 5 .8 2 ,8 8 3 . 5 1 -9 1 -1 .6 - 2 .1 - 2 .0 -2 .2 - 2 .9 - 3 .6 - 3 .2 -3 .0 -0 .8 - 2 .5 -1 0 .2 2 -9 1 -1 .4 - 1 .9 - 1 .7 - 1 .9 - 2 .5 -3 .0 - 2 .6 -2 .3 -0 .5 -1 .5 -5 .0 0 .5 3 -9 1 - 1 .0 -1 .4 - 1 .2 -1 .3 - 1 .7 - 2 .1 -1 .6 -1 .2 0 .5 - 0 .1 -2 .0 2 .4 4 -9 1 -1 .0 -1 .4 - 1 .2 -1 .3 -1 .7 - 2 .0 5 -9 1 -0 .7 -0 .9 - 0 .8 - 0 .8 -1 .1 -1 .4 6 -9 1 - 0 .3 -0 .5 - 0 .3 - 0 .3 -0 .6 -0 .7 2 ,8 5 7 . 8 7 -9 1 -0 .3 -0 .5 - 0 .4 - 0 .4 -0 .6 -0 .8 8 -9 1 - 0 .2 -0 .4 - 0 .2 - 0 .2 - 0 .4 - 0 .6 9 -9 1 -0 .1 -0 .3 -0 .1 -0 .1 - 0 .3 -0 .4 1.1 2.0 -0 .5 0 .5 -0 .9 -0 .5 0.2 1 .4 1 .3 0 . 5 2.8 - 0 .2 0.0 1.1 0 .9 0 . 3 2.1 -0 .3 0.2 1.2 1.1 0 . 5 2.1 -0 .1 0.0 0 .4 1 . 3 1.1 0.6 2.1 2 -9 0 3 -9 0 4 -9 0 5 -9 0 6 -9 0 7 -9 0 8 -9 0 - 1 .6 -1 .2 0.2 0.8 -0 .3 -1 .8 9 -9 0 1 0 -9 0 1 1 -9 0 1 2 -9 0 1 -9 1 2 ,8 5 8 . 9 4 .4 1 .5 2 ,8 6 9 . 2 - 1 .4 2 ,8 6 5 . 9 2 .5 1.6 4 .7 3 .4 3 .1 5 .3 2 .5 2 .4 2 .3 2 -9 1 2 ,8 7 6 . 9 6.0 2 ,8 9 0 . 9 2.0 3 .1 2 . 3 - 1 . 2 2.0 2.8 2.2 0 . 3 1 .9 2.6 2.1 0.8 3 -9 1 4 -9 1 5 -9 1 6 -9 1 2,8 8 8 .0 1 .9 2 ,8 9 2 . 5 1 .9 1 .9 7 -9 1 8 -9 1 2 ,8 9 7 . 0 P re p a re d b y F e d e ra l R e s e rv e Bank o f S t . L o u is O cto b e r 3 0 , 1991 10 R et a i l S a l e s Seasonally Adjusted B illio n s o f D o lla r s B illio n s o f D o lla r s 1986 1985 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 Shaded area represents a period of business recession. The CPI is used to deflate retail sales data. Percentages are annual rates of change for periods indicated. Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis R e t a i l S a le s i n 1 9 8 2 - 8 4 D o lla r s (C o m p o u n d e d A n n u a l R a te s o f C h a n g e ) T e rn in a i M o n th I n i t i a l M onth 2 -9 0 3 -9 0 4 -9 0 5 -9 0 6 -9 0 7 -9 0 9 -9 0 1 0 -9 0 1 1 -9 0 1 2 -9 0 8 -9 0 3 -9 0 - 8 .6 4 -9 0 -8 .2 -7 .8 5 -9 0 - 7 .2 - 6 .6 -5 .3 6 -9 0 - 4 .5 -3 .2 - 0 .7 4 .0 7 -9 0 - 4 .0 - 2 .8 -1 .1 1.0 8 -9 0 -4 .3 -3 .5 -2 .4 -1 .4 - 4 .0 -6 .0 9 -9 0 -3 .9 -3 .1 -2 .1 -1 .3 -3 .0 -3 .6 - 1 .1 1 0 -9 0 -4 .1 -3 .4 -2 .7 - 2 .2 -3 .6 -4 .2 -3 .3 -5 .5 1 1 -9 0 -3 .6 - 2 .9 -2 .2 -1 .7 -2 .8 -3 .1 -2 .1 -2 .6 1 2 -9 0 -5 .8 - 5 .5 -5 .2 - 5 .2 -6 .7 - 7 .6 - 8 .0 1 -9 1 -7 .1 - 7 .0 - 6 .9 -7 .1 -8 .5 - 9 .6 - 1 0 .3 - 1 2 .5 - 1 4 .7 - 2 1 .4 -1 9 .0 2 -9 1 -4 .7 -4 .3 - 3 .9 -3 .8 - 4 .7 -5 .1 -5 .0 - 5 .7 - 5 .8 - 7 .8 3 -9 1 - 4 .0 - 3 .6 - 3 .3 - 3 .0 - 3 .8 -4 .0 -3 .8 - 4 .2 - 3 .9 - 5 .0 4 -9 1 -4 .2 - 3 .9 -3 .5 -3 .4 -4 .1 - 4 .3 - 4 .1 - 4 .5 -4 .3 -5 .3 5 -9 1 -3 .3 - 2 .9 -2 .5 -2 .3 -2 .8 -2 .9 -2 .5 - 2 .7 - 2 .3 -2 .8 6 -9 1 -3 .3 - 2 .9 -2 .5 -2 .3 -2 .8 -2 .9 -2 .6 -2 .8 -2 .4 -2 .8 7 -9 1 - 3 .0 - 2 .6 -2 .3 -2 .0 - 2 .5 -2 .5 -2 .2 -2 .3 -2 .0 - 2 .3 8 -9 1 -3 .4 -3 .0 -2 .7 -2 .6 -3 .0 -3 .1 -2 .9 -3 .0 -2 .8 -3 .1 9 -9 1 - 3 .0 - 2 .7 -2 .4 - 2 .2 -2 .6 -2 .6 -2 .3 -2 .5 -2 .2 - 2 .4 2 -9 0 3 -9 0 4 -9 0 5 -9 0 6 -9 0 7 -9 0 8 -9 0 9 -9 0 1 0 -9 0 1 1 -9 0 1 2 -9 0 M illio n s o f D o lla r s 1 -9 1 2 -9 1 3 -9 1 4 -9 1 5 -9 1 6 -9 1 7 -9 1 8 -9 1 1 1 6 ,4 3 4 1 1 5 ,6 4 9 1 1 5 ,1 2 6 1 1 5 ,5 0 5 - 1 .9 1 1 5 ,3 2 4 1 1 4 ,7 2 9 1 1 4 ,6 2 7 1 1 4 ,0 8 6 0 .5 1 1 4 ,1 3 4 - 1 0 .2 -1 2 .4 - 2 3 .7 1 1 1 ,5 8 7 1 .4 1 0 9 ,6 4 6 2 6 .8 1 1 1 ,8 3 7 2.2 1 4 .8 3 . 9 0.0 7 . 2 - 1 . 4 - 6 . 4 2.1 8.1 2 . 5 1.8 10.8 1.2 5 . 8 1.1 0.1 3 . 6 1.2 5 .1 1.2 0 .5 3 .0 -0 .2 2.8 - 0 . 7 - 1 . 6 - 0 . 4 0.0 - 0 . 7 0 .5 3 .0 0 .3 1 -9 1 2 -9 1 3 -9 1 4 -9 1 1 1 2 ,1 9 8 1 1 1 ,5 7 9 1 1 2 ,5 3 5 -3 .1 1 1 2 ,2 3 7 -0 .7 1 .7 - 3 .8 -4 .2 - 9 .7 - 1 .9 -1 .5 -3 .1 4 .1 5 -9 1 6 -9 1 7 -9 1 8 -9 1 1 1 2 ,3 9 5 1 1 1 ,4 4 1 1 1 1 ,8 1 3 R e t a il s a le s d a ta d e fla te d b y C PI-U (1982-84= 100). P re p a re d b y F e d e ra l R e s e rv e Bank o f S t . L o u is O cto b er 1 1 , 1991 1 1 Inventories C o m p a r e d W i t h M o n t h l y Sales Manufacturing and Trad« Seasonally Adjusted 1.52 1.48 1.44 1— I— '— I— '-------1-------'— 1985 I— 1986 '— I— r 1987 1988 1991 Shaded area represents a period of business recession. Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis B u s in e s s I n v e n t o r ie s (C o m p o u n d e d A n n u a l R a te s o f C h a n g e ) T e r m in a l M onth 2 -9 0 3 .1 3 .7 4 .1 1 0 -9 0 3 .2 3 .8 1 1 -9 0 3 .2 3 .7 6 -9 0 7 -9 0 1 2 -9 0 1 -9 1 2 -9 1 3 -9 1 4 -9 1 5 -9 1 7 -9 0 8 -9 0 9 -9 0 1 1 -9 0 1 2 -9 0 1 -9 1 2 -9 1 3 -9 1 4 -9 1 5 -9 1 6 -9 1 7 -9 1 8 1 0 ,0 2 4 9 -9 0 5 -9 0 6 -9 0 - 1 .1 8 -9 0 4 -9 0 5 -9 0 1 4 -9 0 © 3 -9 0 M © 2 -9 0 0.1 1.2 1.1 2.2 3 . 2 2.2 3 . 3 4 . 4 5 . 6 0 .7 1.2 1.1 0.1 2.0 2.6 2 . 9 2.8 2.8 3 . 4 3 . 8 4 . 0 3 -9 0 M illio n s o f D o lla r s I n i t i a l M o n th 1 -9 0 8 1 0 ,8 3 0 8 1 2 ,9 7 6 8 1 6 ,6 6 7 8 1 3 ,1 1 8 - 5 .1 1 .5 8 .5 3 .5 8.1 7 .6 4 .2 3 .9 7 .1 6 .4 5 .2 4 .2 4 .3 4 .1 6 .5 5 .9 5 .0 4 .8 4 .0 4 .1 3 .9 5 .8 5 .1 4 .3 3 .9 8 1 8 ,6 8 9 8 2 3 ,6 8 3 8 2 7 ,1 4 5 2.2 2 . 5 2 .7 2.6 2.2 3 . 4 2 . 4 1.2 - 0 . 1 2.6 2 . 9 3 .1 3 .0 2 . 7 3 . 9 3 .1 2 . 3 1.6 2.0 2.2 2 .3 2 . 3 1 .9 2.8 2.0 1.1 0 . 3 0 .9 1.1 1.1 0 . 9 0 .4 1.1 0.2 - 0 . 8 - 1 . 8 0.6 0 . 7 0 .7 0 . 5 0.0 0.6 - 0 . 3 - 1 . 2 - 2 . 1 0.1 0.2 0.1 - 0 . 1 - 0 . 6 - 0 . 2 - 1 . 0 - 1 . 9 - 2 . 8 8 3 0 ,4 1 4 3 .0 8 3 2 ,4 6 4 - 2 .5 -7 .7 8 2 6 ,9 4 1 0 .5 -0 .7 6 .7 - 0 .8 -2 .0 0 .9 -3 .1 -4 .6 8 3 1 ,4 4 5 -4 .6 8 2 8 ,2 0 1 - 3 .5 - 8 .2 -1 1 .8 8 1 9 ,6 1 5 -3 .2 - 4 .4 - 3 .6 - 6 .8 -7 .9 -3 .9 - 3 .8 -4 .9 - 4 .4 - 7 .0 - 7 .7 -5 .6 8 1 6 ,8 9 3 - 7 .3 8 1 1 ,7 1 3 6 -9 1 - 0 .3 -0 .3 -0 .4 - 0 .6 -1 .1 - 0 .7 - 1 .5 - 2 .4 - 3 .2 - 4 .2 -5 .2 -4 .7 -6 .9 - 7 .4 - 6 .0 -7 .0 -6 .6 7 -9 1 - 0 .3 -0 .3 -0 .4 - 0 .6 - 1 .0 - 0 .7 - 1 .5 - 2 .2 - 2 .9 - 3 .8 -4 .6 - 4 .1 -5 .8 - 6 .1 -4 .6 - 4 .9 - 3 .6 -0 .4 8 -9 1 -0 .4 - 0 .3 -0 .4 - 0 .6 -1 .0 -0 .7 -1 .4 - 2 .1 - 2 .8 -3 .5 - 4 .2 - 3 .7 - 5 .2 - 5 .2 - 3 .9 - 3 .9 - 2 .7 - 0 .7 -0 .9 1 -9 0 2 -9 0 3 -9 0 4 -9 0 5 -9 0 6 -9 0 7 -9 0 8 -9 0 9 -9 0 1 0 -9 0 1 1 -9 0 1 2 -9 0 1 -9 1 2 -9 1 3 -9 1 4 -9 1 5 -9 1 6 -9 1 7 -9 1 8 0 7 ,1 0 5 8 0 6 ,8 0 2 8 0 6 ,1 7 7 P re p a re d b y F e d e ra l R e s e rv e Bank o f S t . L o u is O cto b e r 1 5 , 1991 12 Gross National P r o d u c t Seasonally Adjusted T r illio n s o f D o lla r s T r illio n s o f D o lla r s 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 Shaded area represents a period of business recession. Percentages are annual rates of change for periods indicated. Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis G r o s s N a t io n a l P r o d u c t i n 1 9 8 2 D o l l a r s ( C o m p o u n d e d A n n u a l R a te s o f C h a n g e ) T e r m in a l Q u a rte r I n i t i a l Q u a rte r 4 -8 6 1 -8 7 2 -8 7 3 -8 7 4 -8 7 1 -8 7 5 .2 2 -8 7 4 .7 4 .2 3 -8 7 4 .5 4 .2 4 -8 7 5 .0 4 .9 5 .3 6.6 5 .0 5 .0 5 .3 5 .9 5 .1 1-88 2-88 3 -8 8 4 -8 8 1 -8 9 4 .9 5 .1 4 .4 3 .6 3 -8 8 4 .4 4 .5 3 .8 3 .1 4 -8 8 4 .3 4 .1 4 .1 4 .1 3 .5 3 .0 2 .7 2 .7 1 -8 9 4 .2 4 .1 4 .1 4 .1 3 .6 3 .2 3 .0 3 .2 2 -8 9 3 .9 3 .8 3 .8 3 .7 3 .2 2 .9 2 .7 2 .7 2.6 1.6 3 -8 9 3 .7 3 .6 3 .5 3 .4 3 .0 2 .7 2 .5 2 .4 2 .3 1 -9 1 2 -9 1 3 -9 1 4 -9 0 1 -9 1 B i l l i o n s o f D o lla r s A n n u al R a te s 2 -9 1 3 /9 7 0 .2 4 / 0 0 5 .8 2 .7 4 / 0 3 2 .1 4 ,0 5 9 .3 3 .6 2 .3 2.1 2.0 1.8 2.6 2.2 2.0 1 .9 1.8 2 .9 2.8 2 . 7 2 . 3 2.0 1.8 1 . 7 1.6 3 .1 3 .0 2.8 2 . 7 2.6 2 . 3 2.0 1.8 1 .7 1 .5 2 .7 2 .5 2 .4 2 .3 1 .9 1 .7 1 .5 1 .3 1.2 2 .4 2.2 2.1 1 . 9 1.6 1 . 3 1.1 0 .9 0 .7 2.2 2.0 1 . 9 1.8 1 . 4 1.1 0 . 9 0.8 0.6 2.2 2.1 1 . 9 1.8 1 . 5 1.2 1.0 0 . 9 0 .7 3 .4 3 .3 3 .2 3 .1 3 .3 3 .2 3 .1 3 .0 4 -8 6 3 -9 0 3 / 9 2 0 .7 4 .7 4 -9 0 2 -9 0 3 / 8 2 0 .3 4 .4 2 -9 0 1 -9 0 3 / 8 5 8 .9 4 .5 3 -9 0 4 -8 9 4 .1 4 .8 1 -9 0 3 -8 9 3 / 7 8 1 .2 1-88 2-88 4 -8 9 2 -8 9 1 -8 7 2 -8 7 3 -8 7 2 .7 4 -8 7 1-88 2-88 3 -8 8 4 -8 8 4 / 0 9 5 .7 1 .7 4 / 1 1 2 .2 1 .7 4 ,1 2 9 .7 1.2 1.0 0 .3 1.2 1.0 1 . 7 1.2 1.0 0.8 1.1 0 . 4 1.2 1.1 1.0 1.2 0 . 9 0.8 0 .7 0 .5 0 . 5 0.1 0.2 - 0 . 1 - 0 . 2 - 0 . 6 0 .3 0 .3 0.1 - 0 . 1 - 0 . 2 - 0 . 6 0.2 0.1 - 0 . 1 0 .5 0 .3 4 / 1 3 3 .2 1 .3 1 -8 9 2 -8 9 3 -8 9 4 -8 9 1 -9 0 4 / 1 5 0 .6 4 / 1 5 5 .1 1 .4 4 / 1 7 0 .0 - 0 .1 -1 .6 -1 .0 -2 .2 -2 .8 4 / 1 5 3 .4 4 / 1 2 4 .1 -0 .9 -1 .6 -1 .7 -0 .5 -0 .2 - 0 .6 -0 .3 0 .9 2 .4 2 -9 0 3 -9 0 4 -9 0 1 -9 1 2 -9 1 4 / 1 1 8 .9 4 / 1 4 3 .1 T h ird q u a rte r 1991 d a ta a r e ad van ce e s tim a te s . P re p a re d b y F e d e ra l R e se rve Bank o f S t . L o u is O c to b e r 29, 1991 13 Implicit Price Deflator Percent Change Prom Previous Year Seasonally Adjusted Percent Percent 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis I m p l i c i t P r i c e D e f la t o r (C o m p o u n d e d A n n u a l R a te s o f C h a n g e ) T e r m in a l Q u a rte r I n i t i a l Q u a rte r 4 -8 6 1 -8 7 1 -8 7 3 .5 2 -8 7 3 .3 3 .1 3 -8 7 3 .4 3 .3 4 -8 7 3 .0 2 -8 7 3 -8 7 4 -8 7 1-88 2-88 3 -8 8 4 -8 8 1 -8 9 2 -8 9 1 982 - 100 3 -8 9 4 -8 9 1 -9 0 2 -9 0 3 -9 0 4 -9 0 1 -9 1 2 -9 1 1 1 6 .1 1 1 7 .0 3 .5 1 1 8 .0 1-88 2-88 2 .9 2.8 2.6 1 . 7 2.8 2.6 2.2 3 .2 3 .1 3 .1 2 .9 3 .6 4 .4 3 -8 8 3 .4 3 .4 3 .4 3 .4 4 .0 4 .6 4 .7 4 -8 8 3 .5 3 .5 3 .6 3 .6 4 .1 4 .6 4 .7 4 .7 1 -8 9 3 .6 3 .6 3 .7 3 .7 4 .1 4 .4 4 .4 4 .3 3 .9 1 1 8 .5 2 .7 1 1 9 .3 120.6 122.0 1 2 3 .4 1 2 4 .6 2 -8 9 3 .6 3 .6 3 .7 3 .7 4 .1 4 .3 4 .3 4 .2 3 .9 3 .9 3 -8 9 3 .6 3 .6 3 .6 3 .7 3 .9 4 .1 4 .1 3 .9 3 .7 3 .6 4 -8 9 3 .6 3 .6 3 .7 3 .7 3 .9 4 .1 4 .0 3 .9 3 .7 3 .7 3 .5 3 .8 1 -9 0 3 .7 3 .7 3 .8 3 .8 4 .0 4 .2 4 .2 4 .1 3 .9 3 .9 3 .9 4 .3 4 .8 2 -9 0 3 .8 3 .8 3 .8 3 .9 4 .1 4 .2 4 .2 4 .2 4 .1 4 .1 4 .1 4 .4 4 .7 1 2 5 .8 3 .2 1 2 6 .8 1 2 8 .0 1 2 9 .5 4 .7 1 3 1 .0 3 -9 0 3 .8 3 .8 3 .8 3 .9 4 .1 4 .2 4 .2 4 .1 4 .0 4 .0 4 .0 4 .3 4 .4 4 .2 3 .7 4 -9 0 3 .7 3 .7 3 .8 3 .8 3 .9 4 .1 4 .0 3 .9 3 .9 3 .8 3 .8 4 .0 4 .0 3 .7 3 .2 2.8 1 -9 1 3 .8 3 .8 3 .8 3 .9 4 .0 4 .2 4 .1 4 .1 4 .0 4 .0 4 .0 4 .2 4 .2 4 .1 3 .9 4 .0 5 .2 2 -9 1 3 .8 3 .8 3 .9 3 .9 4 .1 4 .2 4 .2 4 .1 4 .1 4 .1 4 .1 4 .2 4 .3 4 .2 4 .0 4 .2 4 .9 4 .5 3 -9 1 3 .7 3 .7 3 .8 3 .8 3 .9 4 .0 4 .0 3 .9 3 .8 3 .8 3 .8 3 .9 3 .9 3 .8 3 .6 3 .6 3 .8 3 .1 1 .8 4 -8 6 1 -8 7 2 -8 7 3 -8 7 4 -8 7 3 -8 8 4 -8 8 1 -8 9 2 -8 9 3 -8 9 4 -8 9 1 -9 0 2 -9 0 3 -9 0 4 -9 0 1 -9 1 2 -9 1 The d e f la t o r i s 1-88 2-88 f o r G ro ss N a tio n a l P ro d u c t. T h ird q u a rte r 1991 1 3 2 .2 1 3 3 .1 1 3 4 .8 1 3 6 .3 1 3 6 .9 d a ta a re ad van ce e s tim a te s . P re p a re d b y F e d e ra l R e s e rv e Bank o f S t . L o u is O cto b e r 2 9 , 1991 14 F i n a l S a le s i n 1 9 8 2 D o lla r s (C o m p o u n d e d A n n u a l R a te s o f C h a n g e ) T e rm in a l Q u a rte r I n i t i a l Q u a rte r 4 -8 6 1 -8 7 2 -8 7 3 -8 7 4 -8 7 1 -8 8 2 -8 7 1.0 2.6 4 .3 3 -8 7 3 .4 4 .6 5 .0 4 -8 7 3 .1 3 .9 3 .7 1-88 2-88 3 .9 4 .7 4 .8 4 .7 7 .1 4 .1 4 .8 4 .9 4 .8 6.1 5 .1 3 -8 8 3 .7 4 .1 4 .1 3 .9 4 .4 3 .1 4 -8 8 3 .8 4 .2 4 .2 4 .0 4 .5 1 -8 9 3 .6 4 .0 3 .9 3 .8 2 -8 9 3 .4 3 .7 3 .7 3 .5 1 -8 7 2 -8 8 3 -8 8 4 -8 8 1 -8 9 2 -8 9 3 .6 4 .6 4 .1 3 .3 2 .7 3 .5 3 .7 3 .0 2 .4 2 .9 3 ,9 9 9 .5 4 ,0 4 5 .2 4 ,0 6 9 .6 2 .4 3 .5 3 .3 3 .4 2.8 2 .3 3 .2 3 .0 3 .1 2 .5 2.1 2 .3 1 -9 0 3 .2 3 .3 3 .2 3 .1 3 .2 2 .7 2 .3 2 -9 0 2 .9 3 .0 2 .9 2 .7 2.8 2 .3 1 .9 2 .9 2.8 2 .7 2 .7 2 .3 1 .9 2.6 2.6 2.2 2 .3 2.2 2.1 1 .7 2 .4 2 .5 2.2 2.0 2.0 1.6 2 .3 2 .3 2.2 2.2 2.1 1 .9 1 .9 1.6 4 -8 6 B i ll i o n s o f D o lla r s A nn ual R a te s 2 -9 1 3 ,9 8 8 .9 1.1 2.8 3 .5 3 -9 1 1 -9 1 3 ,9 3 9 .2 3 .3 2 -9 1 4 -9 0 3 ,8 5 0 .3 3 .3 1 -9 1 3 -9 0 3 ,8 7 2 .3 3 .1 2.8 2 -9 0 2 .3 3 -8 9 2 .7 1 -9 0 3 ,8 0 3 .3 4 -8 9 3 -9 0 4 -8 9 3 ,7 6 3 .9 2.1 1 .7 2.6 2.0 1.8 1.8 4 -9 0 3 -8 9 2.8 1 -8 7 2 .7 2 -8 7 3 -8 7 4 -8 7 1 .9 1 .4 1 .3 1 .3 1-88 2-88 1 .7 4 ,0 8 6 .6 4 ,1 0 5 .1 1 .4 1 .5 4 ,1 1 4 .4 0 .9 2 .5 2.1 2.0 2.2 2 .3 3 . 8 2.1 1.6 1 .5 1 .4 1 .3 1 . 5 - 0 . 7 2.1 1 . 7 1.6 1 .5 1 .5 1 .7 0.6 1 .9 2.0 1 .7 1 .5 1 .5 1 .5 1.6 0 . 9 1 . 7 1 .5 1.1 1.0 0 .9 0 .7 0 .7 - 0 . 1 0.1 1 .4 1.0 0 .9 0.8 0 .7 0.6 0.0 0.2 1 .3 1.0 0 .9 0.8 0.6 0.6 0.1 0.2 3 -8 8 4 -8 8 1 -8 9 2 -8 9 3 -8 9 4 -8 9 1 -9 0 2 -9 0 4 ,1 5 2 .8 4 ,1 4 5 .6 4 ,1 6 5 .3 4 ,1 7 9 .8 1 .4 4 ,1 4 9 .0 -0 .8 - 2 .9 -0 .4 -1 .3 0 .3 -0 .2 -0 .7 0 .4 0 .6 3 -9 0 4 -9 0 1 -9 1 2 -9 1 4 ,1 5 2 .2 4 ,1 5 8 .2 P re p a re d b y F e d e r a l R e s e r v e Bank o f S t . O c t o b e r 2 9 , 1991 P e r s o n a l C o n s u m p t io n E x p e n d it u r e s i n 1 9 8 2 D L o u is o l l a r s (C o m p o u n d e d A n n u a l R a te s o f C h a n g e ) T e r a in a l Q u a rte r I n i t i a l Q u a rte r 4 -8 6 1 -8 7 2 -8 7 3 -8 7 4 -8 7 1-88 2-88 1 -8 7 0 .7 2 -8 7 2.6 4 .5 3 -8 7 3 .2 4 .4 4 .3 4 -8 7 2 .3 2.8 1 .9 1-88 2-88 3 .2 3 .8 3 .6 3 .2 6 .9 3 .1 3 .6 3 .4 3 .0 4 .8 2 .7 3 -8 8 3 .2 3 .6 3 .4 3 .1 4 .3 3 .1 3 .5 4 -8 8 3 .2 3 .6 3 .4 3 .2 4 .1 3 .2 3 .5 1 -8 9 2.8 3 .1 2 .9 2.6 3 .2 2 .9 2 .7 2 .4 2 .9 2 .9 2 .7 3 .1 4 -8 9 2 .5 2 .7 2 .5 2 .3 2.6 2.6 2 .4 1 -9 1 2 -9 1 3 -9 1 2.2 2 . 5 2 .3 2 .4 2.2 2.0 2.2 2 .3 2 .4 2.2 2.1 2 . 3 1 .9 2.0 1.8 1.6 1.8 1 .7 1.8 1.6 1 .4 1 . 5 1.8 1.8 1 . 7 1 .5 1.6 1 .9 1 .9 1.8 1.6 1.8 4 -8 6 4 -8 9 1 -9 0 2 -9 0 3 -9 0 4 -9 0 1 -9 1 B i l l i o n s o f D o lla r s A n n u a l R a te s 2 -9 1 2 ,5 3 6 .6 3 .0 4 -9 0 3 -8 9 2 ,5 3 4 .2 2 .7 3 -9 0 2 -8 9 -0 .4 2.8 2 -9 0 1 -8 9 2 ,5 0 9 .9 2 -8 9 2 .4 4 -8 8 2 ,4 8 2 .2 3 -8 9 1 -9 0 3 -8 8 1 -8 7 2 -8 7 3 -8 7 4 -8 7 2 ,5 7 6 .8 2 ,5 9 4 . 1 2 ,6 1 6 .4 2 ,6 3 8 .8 3 .5 2.2 1.6 2.1 2.0 1 . 5 2 .3 -0 .3 0 .5 2 ,6 3 6 .7 1 .3 2 ,6 4 5 .3 1.8 2 .9 4 . 6 2.0 1 .9 1.6 1.2 1 . 7 1 .9 1 .9 1.8 1 . 5 1.2 1 .5 1.6 1 .7 1.6 1 .4 1.0 1 .3 1 .3 1.8 1 .7 1 . 5 1 . 3 1 .5 1.6 1 .4 1.2 1.0 0 . 7 0.8 0 .7 1.1 1.0 0 .7 0 .4 0 .5 0 .4 1.2 1.1 0 . 9 0.6 0 .7 0 .7 1 .4 1 .3 1.1 0 . 9 1.0 1.0 2 .5 2 .5 1-88 2-88 2 ,6 7 5 .3 2 .3 3 -8 8 4 -8 8 1 -8 9 2 -8 9 -0 .8 2 ,6 6 9 .9 0.1 1.1 0.2 0 .7 0.2 0.8 1 .3 1 . 5 -0 .1 0.1 - 0 . 2 -0 .4 - 3 .4 -0 .3 -0 .8 -2 .4 -1 .5 -0 .8 0 .5 2 .5 0 .3 1 .6 3 .1 3 .8 3 -9 0 4 -9 0 1 -9 1 2 -9 1 -0 .2 -0 .5 2 ,6 7 7 .3 2 ,6 7 8 .8 2 .7 0.1 0 .3 0.1 0.1 0.6 0.8 0 . 7 0.8 3 -8 9 4 -8 9 1 -9 0 2 -9 0 2 ,6 9 6 .8 2 ,6 7 3 .6 2 ,6 6 3 .7 2 ,6 8 0 .5 2 ,7 0 5 .3 T h ird q u a rte r 1991 d a ta a re ad van ce e s t iv a t e s . P re p a re d b y F e d e ra l R e s e rv e Bank o f S t . L o u is O cto b e r 2 9 , 1991 15 R e s i d e n t i a l F ix e d I n v e s t m e n t i n 1 9 8 2 D o lla r s (C o m p o u n d e d A n n u a l R a te s o f C h a n g e ) T e r a in a l Q u a rte r I n i t i a l Q u a rte r 4 -8 6 1 -8 7 2 -8 7 1 -8 7 -8 .1 2 -8 7 - 2 .1 4 .4 3 -8 7 -3 .2 - 0 .6 - 5 .3 4 -8 7 - 2 .2 - 0 .2 - 2 .4 -3 .2 -1 .9 - 3 .9 1-88 2-88 3 -8 7 4 -8 7 1-88 2-88 3 -8 8 4 -8 8 1 -8 9 2 -8 9 3 -8 9 4 -8 9 1 -9 0 2 -9 0 3 -9 0 4 -9 0 1 -9 1 B i l l i o n s o f D o lla r s A n nual R a te s 2 -9 1 1 9 6 .1 1 9 8 .2 1 9 5 .5 0.6 -3 .1 1 9 5 .8 - 6 .8 1 9 2 .4 0.1 - 0 . 2 6.8 0.2 0.0 3 . 6 0 .4 0.0 - 0 . 1 2.2 0.0 -1 .6 - 0 .2 - 1 .3 3 -8 8 -1 .3 -0 .1 -1 .0 4 -8 8 -1 .2 - 0 .1 - 0 .9 1 -8 9 -1 .5 - 0 .6 -1 .3 -0 .6 -0 .8 0 .7 - 1 .2 - 2 .0 -3 .6 2 -8 9 - 2 .5 - 1 .8 - 2 .6 -2 .2 - 2 .6 -1 .8 -3 .8 -5 .2 - 7 .5 - 1 1 .3 3 -8 9 - 3 .0 -2 .4 - 3 .2 -2 .9 -3 .4 -2 .8 -4 .6 -5 .8 -7 .6 - 9 .5 - 7 .6 4 -8 9 - 3 .2 - 2 .7 -3 .4 - 3 .2 - 3 .6 -3 .2 -4 .8 -5 .8 -7 .1 -8 .2 -6 .6 1 -9 0 -1 .9 -1 .3 -1 .8 -1 .5 - 1 .7 -1 .1 -2 .1 - 2 .6 - 3 .0 - 2 .8 2 -9 0 - 2 .6 - 2 .1 -2 .7 -2 .4 - 2 .7 -2 .2 -3 .3 -3 .8 -4 .4 -4 .6 1 9 5 .6 1 9 5 .8 - 0 .4 1 9 5 .6 1 9 3 .8 1 8 8 .1 0.1 -2 .8 1 8 4 .4 -5 .5 4 .3 - 1 .2 1 8 1 .8 1 5 .1 1 8 8 .3 1.1 - 1 1 . 2 1 8 2 .8 3 -9 0 - 3 .8 -3 .5 - 4 .1 -4 .0 - 4 .4 - 4 .2 -5 .3 -6 .0 -6 .8 -7 .3 - 6 .5 - 6 .2 4 -9 0 -5 .0 - 4 .8 - 5 .4 - 5 .4 - 5 .9 - 5 .8 -7 .0 -7 .8 -8 .6 -9 .3 - 9 .0 - 9 .3 - 1 0 .2 - 1 7 .3 - 2 0 .2 - 2 0 .6 1 -9 1 - 6 .3 -6 .2 - 6 .9 -7 .0 - 7 .5 -7 .6 -8 .8 - 9 . 7 - 1 0 . 7 - 1 1 . 5 - 1 1 . 5 - 1 2 . 2 - 1 3 . 4 - 1 9 . 4 - 2 1 . 9 - 2 3 .0 - 6 .4 - 1 5 .6 - 1 9 .8 1 7 3 .0 1 6 3 .3 -2 5 .3 2 -9 1 -5 .9 -5 .8 - 6 .4 - 6 .4 -6 .9 - 6 .9 -8 .0 - 8 .7 - 9 . 5 - 1 0 .1 - 1 0 . 0 - 1 0 . 3 - 1 1 .1 - 1 5 . 6 - 1 6 . 6 - 1 5 . 6 - 1 2 . 9 3 -9 1 -4 .7 - 4 .5 - 5 .0 - 4 .9 -5 .3 - 5 .2 -6 .0 - 6 .6 - 7 .1 -7 .4 -7 .0 - 6 .9 -7 .1 4 -8 6 1 -8 7 2 -8 7 3 -8 7 4 -8 7 1-88 2-88 3 -8 8 4 -8 8 1 -8 9 2 -8 9 3 -8 9 4 -8 9 - 1 0 .4 - 1 0 .2 1 -9 0 2 -9 0 1 5 1 .8 1.6 1 5 2 .4 - 7 .7 - 2 .9 1 0 .7 2 0 .6 3 -9 0 4 -9 0 1 -9 1 2 -9 1 1 5 9 .7 P r e p a r e d b y F e d e r a l R e s e r v e B a n k o f S t . L o u is O c t o b e r 2 9 , 1991 N o n r e s id e n t ia l F ix e d I n v e s t m e n t i n 1 9 8 2 D o lla r s (C o m p o u n d e d A n n u a l R a te s o f C h a n g e ) T e r m in a l Q u a rte r 4 -8 6 1 -8 7 -4 .0 2 -8 7 3 .8 3 -8 7 4 -8 7 1-88 2-88 8.0 6.1 7 .2 1 -8 7 2 -8 7 3 -8 7 4 -8 7 1 -8 8 B i l l i o n s o f D o lla r s 3 -8 9 4 -8 9 1 -9 0 2 -9 0 3 -9 0 4 -9 0 1 -9 1 2 -9 1 4 4 3 .8 1 4 .5 1 7 .0 9 .7 8 .5 10.1 9 . 5 11.2 11.0 4 6 1 .6 0.6 4 6 2 .3 5 .9 1 1 .4 4 7 5 .0 9 .1 1 3 .5 1 5 .7 9 .6 9 .1 7 .1 9 .4 8 .4 4 -8 8 5 .7 7 .1 6 .3 4 .3 5 .3 3 .3 7 .4 6 .7 5 .1 7 .3 6 .7 5 .3 3 -8 9 6.0 6.1 6.1 7 .2 6 .7 5 .5 6.0 6.1 6.2 4 -8 9 5 .3 5 .6 4 .4 1 -9 0 5 .3 6.2 6.1 5 .5 2 -8 9 I n i t i a l Q u a rte r Annu al R a te s 4 -8 8 1 -8 9 2 -8 9 12.1 7 .5 1 -8 9 3 -8 8 4 3 1 .3 3 -8 8 8 .5 2 -8 8 4 9 2 .6 1.6 - 2 .4 4 9 4 .6 -6 .3 4 8 6 .6 5 .1 1.2 1.0 2.6 2 .9 7 .9 6 .9 5 .3 3 .3 7 .4 6.6 6 .3 4 .9 4 .0 2.1 2.2 4 .5 3 .0 1.2 4 .4 4 .9 4 .1 2 .5 4 .6 3 .5 2 .4 1.6 1.6 3 .0 2 .4 3 .8 4 .7 2 -9 0 4 .5 5 .2 4 .6 3 .6 3 .9 3 .1 3 -9 0 4 .8 5 .4 5 .0 4 .0 4 .3 3 .6 4 -9 0 4 .5 5 .1 4 .6 3 .7 4 .0 3 .3 1 -9 1 3 .1 3 .6 3 .1 2 -9 1 3 .0 3 .5 2 .9 2.1 2.2 2.1 2.2 3 -9 1 3 .2 3 .6 3 .2 2 .3 2 .5 4 -8 6 1 -8 7 2 -8 7 3 -8 7 4 -8 7 1 .5 1 .5 1 .9 3 .8 2 .7 8 .9 4 9 7 .1 5 0 5 .5 5 1 3 .3 5 0 8 .4 -3 .8 0 .5 5 1 4 .6 5 .0 1.8 0.6 - 1 . 3 0.0 - 4 . 7 2.2 1.2 2 .9 1.8 2.1 2.2 3 . 3 2 . 5 1.8 0 .9 2.2 1.2 0.2 0 .9 0.0 - 1 . 0 - 2 . 2 - 1 . 8 - 3 . 5 0 .3 1.0 0.1 - 0 . 7 - 1 . 7 - 1 . 3 - 2 . 5 0 .3 0 .4 0.8 1 .5 0.8 0.1 - 0 . 7 - 0 . 2 - 1 . 1 0 .9 1-88 2-88 2 .5 3 -8 8 4 -8 8 3 .0 1 -8 9 2 -8 9 3 -8 9 4 -8 9 1 -9 0 5 0 8 .4 5 1 9 .3 8 .9 4 .4 0.1 5 1 9 .4 4 9 6 .8 -3 .0 - 8 .5 -1 6 .3 - 1 .9 -5 .3 - 7 .9 1 .4 - 0 .3 -2 .5 -3 .3 3 .9 6 .6 2 -9 0 3 -9 0 4 -9 0 1 -9 1 2 -9 1 4 9 8 .5 5 0 6 .5 T h ird q u a rte r 1991 d a ta a r e ad van ce e s tim a te s . P re p a re d b y F e d e ra l R e s e rv e Bank o f S t . L o u is O cto b er 2 9 , 1991 16 E x p o r t s i n 1 9 8 2 D o lla r s (C o m p o u n d e d A n n u a l R a te s o f C h a n g e ) T e r a in a l Q u a rte r I n i t i a l Q u a rte r 4 -8 6 1 -8 7 2 -8 7 3 -8 7 4 -8 7 1-88 2-88 1 -8 7 1 2 .7 2 -8 7 1 7 .2 2 1 .9 3 -8 7 1 8 .3 2 1 .3 20.6 4 -8 7 1 9 .8 2 2 .3 2 2 .4 2 4 .3 2 5 .5 2 8 .0 3 1 .7 1 9 .8 1 9 .6 1 7 .2 4 .4 4 .9 3 -8 8 4 -8 8 1 -8 9 2 -8 9 3 -8 9 3 -9 0 4 -9 0 1 -9 1 B i l l i o n s o f D o lla r s A nnual R a te s 2 -9 1 4 6 1 .2 4 8 7 .0 5 2 1 .7 5 2 7 .3 5 3 4 .3 1 6 .9 1 7 .6 1 6 .8 1 5 .8 1 3 .2 4 -8 8 1 6 .9 1 7 .5 1 6 .8 1 6 .0 1 4 .0 8 .7 1 0 .9 1 6 .7 1 -8 9 1 6 .8 1 7 .3 1 6 .6 1 6 .0 1 4 .4 1 0 .4 1 2 .5 1 6 .3 1 5 .8 2 -8 9 1 6 .3 1 6 .7 1 6 .1 1 5 .5 1 4 .1 10.8 1 2 .5 1 5 .0 1 4 .1 1 2 .4 3 -8 9 1 4 .7 1 4 .9 1 4 .1 1 3 .3 1 1 .9 8 .9 9 .8 1 0 .9 9 .0 5 .8 - 0 .5 4 -8 9 1 4 .6 1 4 .8 1 4 .1 1 3 .4 1 0 .4 1 1 .4 10.1 8 .3 6 .3 1 3 .5 1 -9 0 1 4 .3 1 4 .5 1 3 .8 1 3 .2 1 0 .5 1 1 .4 1 0 .4 9 .0 7 .9 1 2 .4 2 -9 0 12.8 12.8 12.1 3 -9 0 1 2 .4 1 2 .4 4 -9 0 1 2 .3 1 2 .3 2 -9 1 2 -9 0 4 4 0 .1 3 -8 8 3 -9 1 1 -9 0 4 1 8 .8 1-88 22.1 2 4 .6 2-88 1 8 .9 20.2 1 -9 1 4 -8 9 1 1 .4 11.0 11.6 11.0 1 0 .9 10.2 1 1 .7 11.6 1 1 .5 11.2 11.1 10.6 1 0 .5 1 0 .5 9 .8 9 .8 9 .2 4 -8 6 2 -8 7 3 -8 7 1 -8 7 12.1 9 . 5 12.0 9 . 7 10.1 8.0 9 .8 5 .4 5 5 5 .3 5 7 6 .1 8 .4 8 .9 7 .6 7 .9 8 .3 8.6 7 .5 6.1 6.2 5 9 3 .2 5 9 2 .5 6 1 1 .6 4 .5 6 .3 11.2 2.8 5 .0 6 .4 4 .1 6 2 8 .1 6 2 0 .1 - 5 .0 0.8 6 3 0 .5 6 .9 9 .9 8.2 8 .5 8 .9 8.0 6 .9 6.0 7 .3 5 .8 4 .1 8 .9 11.0 9 .2 7 .5 7 .8 8.0 7 .1 6.1 5 .2 6.2 4 .7 3 .2 6.0 5 .6 0 .5 8.8 8.2 7 .3 7 .5 7 .7 6 .7 6 .9 7 .0 4 -8 7 1-88 2-88 3 -8 8 6.8 6.2 4 -8 8 6 4 7 .2 6 4 8 .0 5 .9 5 .1 5 .9 4 .7 3 .4 5 .6 5 .2 2 .5 4 .5 5 .3 4 .5 5 .2 4 .0 2 .9 4 .5 3 .9 1 .7 2 .3 0 .1 6 5 5 .1 1 -8 9 2 -8 9 3 -8 9 4 -8 9 1 -9 0 2 -9 0 3 -9 0 4 -9 0 1 -9 1 2 -9 1 P re p a re d b y F e d e r a l R e s e rv e Bank o f S t . O c t o b e r 2 9 , 1991 I m p o r t s i n 1 9 8 2 D 6 5 5 .3 L o u is o lla r s (C o m p o u n d e d A n n u a l R a te s o f C h a n g e ) T e r a in a l Q u a rte r 4 -8 6 1 -8 7 2 -8 7 3 -8 7 4 -8 7 1 -8 8 2 -8 8 6.1 10.6 4 -8 7 1 4 .0 1 0 .4 1 4 .6 1 4 .9 9 .9 8 .3 1 0 .9 9 .9 5 .1 0 .5 7 .0 8 .7 7 .4 3 .5 0 .4 0 .3 7 .3 8.8 7 .8 4 .9 3 .2 4 .7 4 -8 8 7 .9 9 .3 8 .5 6 .3 5 .5 7 .2 1 -8 9 6 .7 7 .8 6 .9 4 .8 3 .9 4 .7 10.8 6.2 4 -8 9 1 -9 0 2 -9 0 3 -9 0 4 -9 0 1 -9 1 2 -9 1 7 .6 5 .9 5 .3 6 .3 7 .8 7 .5 6.0 5 .5 5 .6 5 .2 5 8 4 .4 5 9 8 .3 2 -8 9 7 .3 8 .3 3 -8 9 7 .2 8.1 4 -8 9 6.8 7 .5 6 .9 5 .5 5 .0 1 -9 0 6 .4 7 .1 6 .5 5 .2 4 .7 5 9 9 .0 6 .3 5 9 9 .5 9 .2 7 .5 3 -9 0 5 .0 4 .6 5 .0 5 .6 4 -9 0 4 .9 5 .3 3 .6 3 .1 3 .4 3 .7 1 -9 1 4 .0 4 .4 3 .8 2 .7 2.1 2 .3 2 .5 2 -9 1 4 .7 5 .1 4 .6 3 .6 3 .2 3 .4 3 .7 3 -9 1 5 .2 5 .5 5 .0 4 .2 3 .8 4 .0 4 .3 4 -8 6 1 -8 7 2 -8 7 3 -8 7 4 -8 7 4 .7 4 .8 4 .3 4 .7 6 1 2 .8 5 .3 1-88 2-88 6 3 1 .0 1 2 .4 4 .8 -2 .3 6 2 7 .3 7 .4 5 .0 12.8 7 .1 5 .4 9 .6 6 .4 4 .5 6 .9 4 .0 4 .1 5 .8 3 .5 4 .8 3 .5 4 .7 2.1 2 . 5 2.8 1.6 1.6 0 .7 5 .1 4 .1 5 .2 3 .8 4 .1 6.6 6.0 6.0 5 . 4 6.0 6.6 6.0 6.1 6 . 7 6.1 2 -9 0 B i l l i o n s o f D o lla r s 3 -8 9 5 5 8 .2 20.1 3 -8 8 I n i t i a l Q u a rte r A n n u al R a te s 4 - 8 8 1 -8 9 2 -8 9 5 4 0 .2 1 7 .0 1-88 2-88 3 -8 8 - 1 .2 3 -8 7 2 -8 7 1 -8 7 6 4 6 .5 6 5 6 .6 1 .7 3 .1 6 5 9 .4 3 .6 2.0 2.6 1.0 - 0 . 1 - 0 . 5 1.8 0 . 7 1.1 - 0 . 5 - 1 . 6 - 2 . 2 2.8 1.6 1.0 0.8 2 .3 3 .2 3 .8 2.8 2 .4 2 . 5 3 .2 3 .9 3 .1 3 -8 8 4 -8 8 1 -8 9 2 -8 9 3 -8 9 4 -8 9 6 6 3 .5 6 6 4 .7 7 .6 6 7 7 .0 -1 .5 - 2 .6 -1 1 .8 - 3 .4 -4 .7 -1 0 .4 - 8 .8 0 .5 0 .4 - 1 .8 3 .6 2 .5 2.8 1.6 6.6 1 -9 0 2 -9 0 3 -9 0 6 5 6 .0 4 -9 0 6 4 1 .0 1 7 .7 6 6 7 .6 1 5 .2 1 2 .9 1 -9 1 2 -9 1 688.1 T h ird q u a rte r 1991 d a ta a r e ad van ce e s tim a te s • P re p a re d b y F e d e ra l R e s e rv e Bank o f S t . L o u is O cto b e r 2 9 , 1991 17 G o v e r n m e n t P u r c h a s e s o f G o o d s a n d S e r v ic e s i n 1 9 8 2 D o lla r s (C o m p o u n d e d A n n u a l R a te s o f C h a n g e ) T e r a in a l Q u a rte r I n i t i a l Q u a rte r 4 -8 6 1 -8 7 2 -8 7 1 -8 7 -0 .2 2 -8 7 -1 .7 3 -8 7 0 .7 1.1 5 .5 4 -8 7 2.0 2 .7 5 .7 -0 .4 0 .5 1-88 2-88 - 0 .4 0.2 3 -8 8 -0 .4 4 -8 8 1 .5 1 -8 9 1.0 2 -8 9 1 .3 3 -8 9 0 .9 4 -8 9 1 -9 0 2 -9 0 3 -9 0 4 -9 0 1 -9 1 2 -9 1 3 -9 1 1.1 1.2 1.6 1.6 1.8 1.6 1.6 1.2 4 -8 6 3 -8 7 4 -8 7 1-88 2-88 3 -8 8 4 -8 8 1 -8 9 2 -8 9 3 -8 9 4 -8 9 1 -9 0 2 -9 0 3 -9 0 4 -9 0 1 -9 1 B i l l i o n s o f D o lla r s A n nual R a te s 2 -9 1 7 7 5 .7 -3 .2 7 6 9 .5 7 7 9 .8 6.0 - 1 .9 7 9 1 .3 -9 .2 1.2 - 0 . 2 - 3 . 2 0.2 - 1 . 1 - 3 . 4 1.8 2.6 2.1 1.1 1.1 1 . 7 1.1 0.2 1 .4 2.0 1 . 5 0.8 1.0 1 . 5 1.0 0 . 4 1.2 1 . 7 1 .3 0 . 7 1 .4 1.8 1 . 4 0 . 9 1 .7 2.1 1 . 9 1 . 4 1 .7 2.1 1.8 1 . 4 1 .9 2 .3 2.0 1 . 7 1 .7 2.0 1.8 1 . 5 2.0 1.8 1 . 5 1 .7 1.2 1 . 5 1.2 0 . 9 7 7 2 .4 0 .3 3 .3 - 0 .4 -0 .3 -3 .8 4 .8 5 .5 1 5 .7 2 .7 2 .5 5 .8 - 3 .3 3 .0 2 .9 5 .2 0 .3 3 .2 - 0 .6 3 .2 0 .3 1 .5 0 .3 3 .0 3 .1 0.8 1 .9 1.2 3 .0 2 .9 3 .6 1 .7 2 .7 2 .4 4 .0 4 .5 1 -8 7 2 -8 7 3 -8 7 4 -8 7 7 7 8 .7 2.0 1.8 2.2 2.0 2 .3 2.1 2 .7 2.6 2.6 2 .5 2.8 2 .7 7 7 1 .2 3 .3 3 .4 2 .4 2 .3 3 .0 2 .4 2 .3 2 .9 1 .7 1.6 2.0 1-88 2-88 3 -8 8 7 9 9 .9 7 9 3 .2 4 .0 0.8 1.6 2 .5 2.0 2.8 1.6 2 .3 1 .7 2.2 0 .9 1 .3 4 -8 8 1 -8 9 8 0 1 .0 -2 .4 7 9 6 .2 8 0 2 .2 2.2 3 . 3 3 . 4 2.6 3 . 6 3 . 8 2.0 2.8 2 .7 2.0 2.6 2.6 1.0 1 .4 1.2 2 -8 9 3 -8 9 4 -8 9 8 0 7 .9 6.2 8 2 0 .2 3 .7 1.2 4 .0 3 .0 4 .7 2 .7 1 .5 1 .7 - 1 .3 2 .5 1.6 1 .7 0 .3 8 2 2 .7 8 3 2 .3 8 2 9 .6 1.8 8 3 3 .4 0 .9 - 0 .1 - 0 .4 - 2 .1 -2 .4 -6 .6 1 -9 0 2 -9 0 3 -9 0 4 -9 0 1 -9 1 2 -9 1 8 1 9 .4 T h ir d q u a r t e r 1991 d a t a a r e a d v a n c e e s t im a t e s . P r e p a r e d b y F e d e r a l R e s e r v e B an k o f S t . O c to b e r 2 9 , 1991 C o r p o r a t e P r o L o u is f i t s (C o m p o u n d e d A n n u a l R a te s o f C h a n g e ) T e r m in a l Q u a rte r I n i t i a l Q u a rte r 3 -8 6 4 -8 6 -6 .3 1 -8 7 1 .5 4 -8 6 1 -8 7 1 2 .3 2 3 .0 3 7 .6 2 3 .8 3 1 .4 4 -8 8 1 -8 9 2 -8 9 3 -8 9 4 -8 9 1-88 2-88 3 -8 8 4 -8 8 1 -8 9 2 -8 9 3 -8 9 4 -8 9 1 -9 0 2 -9 0 3 -9 0 4 -9 0 B i l l i o n s o f D o lla r s Ann ual R a te s 1 -9 1 2 7 5 .2 1 5 .5 3 -8 8 4 -8 7 2 8 1 .8 2 -8 7 12.2 1-88 11.8 2-88 11.0 3 -8 7 9 .9 3 -8 7 4 -8 7 2 -8 7 3 0 5 .2 2 5 .5 3 2 3 .0 20.0 12.1 0.1 1 7 .3 11.2 4 . 7 9 . 5 1 4 .2 1 5 .1 10.0 5 . 3 8.0 6.6 9 .3 11.8 12.1 7 . 6 3 . 5 4 . 7 2 .4 1 0 .4 1 2 .7 1 3 .1 9 .5 6 .5 8.2 7 . 8 8.0 7 . 8 4 . 1 0 . 9 1.0 - 1 . 0 6 .5 6.0 2.6 - 0 . 3 - 0 . 4 - 2 . 2 5 .2 6 .4 3 .1 4 .0 3 .4 0.2 - 2 . 6 - 2 . 9 - 4 . 9 1.2 1 . 9 1.2 - 1 . 9 - 4 . 5 - 5 . 1 - 7 . 0 1 7 .4 3 2 3 .1 1 5 .8 -1 .0 1 -9 0 1 .7 2 .4 1 .7 2 -9 0 2 .5 3 .1 2.6 0.2 3 3 0 .5 3 3 5 .8 - 1 .7 8 .4 3 3 4 .4 1 9 .5 3 4 9 .6 -3 .4 -4 .2 -2 3 .2 3 2 7 .3 - 4 .3 -5 .1 -1 5 .5 - 7 .0 - 8 .3 -1 6 .0 - 1 2 .2 -1 7 .1 -7 .0 3 2 1 .4 3 0 6 .7 2 9 0 .9 - 9 .1 - 1 0 .5 - 1 6 .8 - 1 4 .5 -1 8 .1 -1 9 .1 -3 .3 -3 .7 - 5 .2 - 6 .8 - 7 .6 - 1 2 .3 -1 .9 -2 .1 - 3 .3 - 4 .4 - 4 .8 -8 .4 - 9 .3 - 1 0 .1 - 5 .1 -4 .6 -6 .4 2 9 6 .8 8 .4 0.0 11.1 3 0 6 .6 1 3 .9 1.8 2 . 4 0.8 1.2 1 .9 -0 .5 - 2 .4 -2 .6 -3 .7 -4 .8 -5 .2 -8 .2 - 5 .5 -5 .2 - 2 .0 4 .5 4 -9 0 0 .7 -1 .6 - 3 .4 - 3 .7 -4 .8 -5 .8 -6 .3 - 9 .1 - 6 .9 -6 .9 -4 .7 -0 .7 - 3 .5 - 1 1 .2 - 1 4 .8 1 -9 1 0 .5 C .9 0 .4 -1 .7 -3 .4 -3 .7 - 4 .7 -5 .6 -6 .0 -8 .5 - 6 .5 - 6 .4 -4 .5 - 1 .3 - 3 .6 -8 .8 - 9 .4 - 3 .7 2 -9 1 0 .4 0 .7 0.2 -1 .7 -3 .3 -3 .6 - 4 .5 -5 .4 -5 .7 -7 .9 -6 .1 -5 .9 -4 .2 -1 .5 - 3 .4 -7 .2 -7 .2 -3 .1 - 2 .5 3 -8 6 4 -8 6 2 -8 7 3 -8 7 4 -8 7 1-88 2-88 3 -8 8 4 -8 8 1 -8 9 2 -8 9 3 -8 9 4 -8 9 1 -9 0 2 -9 0 3 -9 0 4 -9 0 1 -9 1 3 -9 0 1 -8 7 2.6 3 0 0 .7 - 7 .5 2 8 8 .9 2 8 6 .2 2 8 4 .4 C o r p o r a t e p r o f i t s w it h c a p i t a l c o n s u m p tio n an d in v e n t o r y v a lu a t i o n a d j u s t m e n t s . P re p a re d b y F e d e ra l R e s e rv e Bank o f S t . L o u is O cto b er 2 9 , 1991 18 G r o s s S a v i n g as a P e r c e n t of G N P Seasonally Adjusted Percent Percent 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1991 1990 Total saving equals private saving (personal saving plus business saving) plus government surplus or deficit. Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis G r o s s P r i v a t e S a v in g (C o m p o u n d e d A n n u a l R a te s o f C h a n g e ) T e r a in a l Q u a rte r I n i t i a l Q u a rte r 3 -8 6 4 -8 6 1 -8 7 4 -8 6 1 -8 7 2 -8 7 3 -8 7 4 -8 7 1-88 2-88 3 -8 8 1 -8 9 2 -8 9 3 -8 9 4 -8 9 1 -9 0 2 -9 0 3 -9 0 4 -9 0 B i l l i o n s o f D o lla r s A n n u al R a te s 1 -9 1 6 4 1 .2 - 6 .6 8.1 6 7 8 .0 2 5 .0 2 -8 7 -8 .2 - 9 .0 -3 3 .7 3 -8 7 - 1 .0 0 .9 -9 .4 2 3 .9 4 -8 7 7 .7 1 1 .5 7 .4 3 6 .7 5 0 .7 1-88 2-88 8.6 12.0 8 .9 2 8 .5 3 0 .9 1 3 .7 7 .7 1 0 .3 7 .5 2 1 .3 2 0 .5 7 .8 2.1 3 -8 8 7 .8 10.0 7 .7 1 8 .7 1 7 .4 8.1 5 .4 8 .7 4 -8 8 7 .4 9 .3 7 .3 1 6 .2 1 4 .7 7 .2 5 .1 6.6 4 .5 1 -8 9 7 .7 9 .4 7 .6 1 5 .3 1 3 .9 7 .7 6.2 7 .6 7 .1 6.2 6.0 7 .6 5 .8 3 -8 9 7 .2 5 .5 4 -8 9 5 .9 7 .0 5 .5 1 -9 0 5 .8 2 -8 9 4 -8 8 2 -9 0 5 .8 6.8 6.8 3 -9 0 4 .3 5 .1 3 .8 4 -9 0 4 .2 4 .9 3 .7 1 -9 1 4 .5 5 .2 4 .0 2 -9 1 4 .3 4 .9 3 .8 3 -8 6 4 -8 6 1 -8 7 5 .4 5 .5 6 1 1 .8 6 4 5 .5 12.2 10.6 11.1 9 . 6 10.6 9 . 2 10.0 8 . 7 7 1 5 .2 7 3 8 .5 7 4 2 .4 7 5 8 .0 7 6 6 .4 9 .7 5 .1 3 .4 3 .8 2.2 1.0 4 .8 3 .4 3 .6 2 .4 1 .7 4 .9 3 .7 3 .9 3 .0 4 .8 3 .8 4 .0 3 .2 7 8 4 .4 -7 .0 7 7 0 .3 - 2 .1 3 .0 2.6 0 .3 4 .2 5 .5 3 .0 1 .4 4 .3 5 .0 7 7 6 .0 7 8 6 .4 7 9 5 .0 4 .4 4 .7 6.0 2 .3 8 .4 4 .0 4 .2 5 .3 5 .2 3 .6 3 .5 4 .9 6.2 2.8 1.8 1.8 0 . 9 0 . 4 - 1 . 0 0.2 - 0 . 5 - 2 . 4 - 5 . 7 - 1 6 . 0 7 .1 5 .9 2.8 1 . 9 1 . 9 1.2 0 .7 - 0 . 5 0.6 0.2 - 1 . 1 - 2 . 9 - 7 . 0 7 .2 6.1 3 . 3 2 . 4 2 .5 1 . 9 1.6 0.6 1 .7 1 . 5 0.8 - 0 . 1 - 2 . 1 6.8 5 . 7 3 .1 2 . 3 2 .3 1.8 1 . 5 0.6 1.6 1 .4 0 . 7 0.0 - 1 . 4 8 0 6 .7 9 .7 7 7 2 .2 7 .4 2 -8 7 3 -8 7 4 -8 7 1-88 2-88 3 -8 8 4 -8 8 1 -8 9 2 -8 9 3 -8 9 4 -8 9 1 -9 0 2 -9 0 2 .9 7 7 7 .8 5 .7 8 .5 4 .0 4 .5 3 -9 0 4 -9 0 7 9 3 .9 0.6 7 9 5 .1 1 -9 1 P re p a re d b y F e d e ra l R e s e rv e Bank o f S t . L o u is O cto b e r 2 9 , 1991 19 B u s i n e s s Productivity a n d C o m p e n s a t i o n Percent Change From Previous Year Seasonally Adjusted Percent Percent 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis B u s in e s s S e c t o r O u t p u t p e r H o u r (C o m p o u n d e d A n n u a l R a te s o f C h a n g e ) T e r a in a l Q u a rte r I n i t i a l Q u a rte r 3 -8 6 4 -8 6 4 -8 6 1.1 1 -8 7 0 .7 0 .4 2 -8 7 1 .5 1 .7 3 -8 7 4 -8 7 1-88 2-88 3 -8 8 4 -8 8 1 -8 9 2 -8 9 3 -8 9 4 -8 9 1 -9 0 2 -9 0 3 -9 0 4 -9 0 1 -9 1 2 -9 1 1 -8 7 2 .9 4 -8 8 1 -8 9 1982 » 100 2 -8 9 3 -8 9 4 -8 9 1 -9 0 2 -9 0 3 -9 0 4 -9 0 1 -9 1 2 .9 2 .9 3 .5 3 .8 2 .5 2 .4 2 .5 1 .9 1 .3 1.1 1.1 1.2 0.8 0 . 9 0.8 0 .7 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0 .7 0 .7 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 4 -8 6 111.1 2 .9 3 .4 1 .3 3 -8 6 3 -8 8 1 1 0 .3 2 .9 1 .4 0 .7 1-88 2-88 3 .0 1.6 0.8 0.8 0.8 4 -8 7 1 0 9 .5 1 .4 0 .9 3 -8 7 1 0 9 .4 1.8 2.1 2.0 2 . 3 2 .5 2.8 2.0 2.1 2.0 2.2 1.6 1 . 7 1 .4 2 -8 7 1 -8 7 1 1 1 .9 0 .7 0 .5 0 .5 0 .3 0 .5 0 .3 0 .5 0 .3 2 -8 7 3 -8 7 1 1 3 .2 4 .7 2.2 1.8 2 .4 2 .3 2.0 1 .7 1 .4 1.1 1 .4 1.1 0.8 1.0 0 .7 1 .3 1.0 0.8 0 .5 0 .7 0 .4 0.1 0.6 0 . 3 0.0 0.6 0 .4 0.2 0 .3 0.1 0.1 0.1 4 -8 7 1 1 2 .9 -1 .1 0 .7 -0 .1 - 0 .2 -0 .1 1 1 3 .6 2 .5 0 .4 0.1 0.2 1 1 3 .1 - 1 .7 - 1 .1 -0 .6 1 1 3 .0 -0 .4 0.0 1 1 3 .1 0 .4 -0 .1 - 0 .7 -0 .4 - 0 .4 - 1 .1 -0 .5 -0 .4 - 1 .0 - 0 .8 -0 .9 -1 .6 - 2 .1 -0 .5 -0 .5 - 0 .9 - 0 .8 -0 .9 -1 .3 -1 .4 -0 .7 -0 .3 - 0 .2 -0 .6 -0 .4 - 0 .4 -0 .6 -0 .5 0 .4 -0 .2 -0 .1 -0 .4 - 0 .2 -0 .2 - 0 .3 -0 .1 -0 .3 -0 .2 - 0 .5 - 0 .4 -0 .4 - 0 .5 -0 .4 -0 .3 - 0 .2 - 0 .5 - 0 .3 -0 .3 -0 .4 -0 .3 -0 .2 - 0 .1 - 0 .4 - 0 .2 - 0 .2 - 0 .3 -0 .2 3 -8 8 4 -8 8 1 -8 9 2 -8 9 3 -8 9 - 0 .2 1-88 2-88 0.6 0.1 0.1 0.1 4 -8 9 112.8 112.2 112.0 1 1 2 .4 1 .4 1 .3 1.1 1 1 2 .7 0 .4 -0 .2 - 1 .4 0 .3 -0 .1 - 0 .7 0 .3 1 -9 0 0.0 2 -9 0 -0 .4 3 -9 0 1 1 2 .3 0.0 0.2 4 -9 0 1 1 2 .3 0 .4 1 1 2 .4 1 -9 1 P re p a re d b y F e d e ra l R e s e rv e Bank o f S t . L o u is Septem ber 5 , 1991 20 N e t F e d e r a l D e b t (C o m p o u n d e d A n n u a l R a te s o f C h a n g e ) T e r m in a l Q u a rte r I n i t i a l Q u a rte r 3 -8 6 4 -8 6 1 2 .3 1 -8 7 9 .7 4 -8 6 1 -8 7 2 -8 7 3 -8 7 9 .8 8.6 10.2 7 .5 7 .6 5 .2 4 -8 7 8 .7 7 .9 8.1 7 .1 9 .1 1-88 2-88 8.8 8.2 8 .4 7 .9 9 .3 8 .4 8 .5 7 .9 8.1 8.0 8.1 7 .6 3 -8 8 7 .7 8 .4 8.1 8.0 7 .6 7 .7 7 .3 7 .5 7 .6 7 .2 B illio n s o f D o lla r s 1 -9 0 2 -9 0 3 -9 0 4 -9 0 1 -9 1 1 / 9 4 4 .4 2 / 0 6 2 .0 7 .7 8.1 6.8 8.1 7 . 5 8 . 3 6.6 6.6 7 .3 7 .6 7 .3 6 .7 6 .7 2 / 0 2 1 .5 7 .3 7 .3 7 .0 7 .3 7 .0 6 .5 6 .4 5 .8 7 .4 7 .1 7 .3 7 .1 6 .7 6 .7 6 .3 7 .8 7 .4 7 .5 7 .2 7 .4 7 .2 6 .9 7 .0 6 .7 7 .9 8.1 8.0 1 -9 1 8.0 8.1 7 . 9 8.2 8.1 8.2 8 . 3 8.2 8 . 5 8 . 4 8 .5 8.8 8 . 5 8.6 8 . 5 8.8 8.8 8.8 8 . 9 8.8 9 . 1 9 .1 9 .0 8.8 8 . 9 8 . 9 9 . 1 9 .1 9 .0 2 -9 1 9 .1 9 .0 9 .1 9 .0 9 .3 9 .3 3 -8 6 4 -8 6 1 -8 7 2 -8 7 3 -8 7 4 -8 7 8 .3 8 .3 8 .5 8 .5 8 .7 8 .9 9 .0 9 .1 9 .3 9 .4 9 .1 9 .3 9 .4 9 .3 9 .5 9 .6 1-88 2-88 2 / 0 8 6 .9 4 .9 6.0 7 .4 4 -9 0 4 -8 9 1 / 9 8 8 .7 7 .8 2 -9 0 3 -8 9 9 .4 7 .8 3 -9 0 2 -8 9 1 / 9 0 2 .6 2 -8 9 1 -9 0 1 -8 9 1 / 8 7 8 .7 3 -8 9 4 -8 9 4 -8 8 1 ,8 0 2 .7 8.6 1 -8 9 3 -8 8 1 / 8 3 3 .8 2 -8 7 4 -8 8 1-88 2-88 7 .1 3 -8 7 8 .5 4 -8 7 3 -8 8 2/ 1 2 2 . 8 7 .1 6.2 5 . 4 6.8 6.6 7 .2 7 .2 8 .7 9 .1 2 / 1 5 0 .7 2 / 1 9 1 .7 7 .8 8.1 1 0 .3 2 / 2 3 6 .3 8 .4 11.6 2 ,3 1 5 .4 1 4 .9 9 .5 10.6 1 1 .5 1 3 .1 1 1 .3 10.0 11.0 11.8 1 2 .9 1 1 .9 10.0 1 0 .5 1 1 .3 12.0 1 3 .0 1 2 . 3 11.0 11.6 12.2 11.6 9 .9 1 0 .3 10.1 1 0 .4 11.1 1 1 .5 12.1 1 1 .5 12.6 12.8 1 3 .1 11.6 11.2 11.6 11.2 4 -8 8 2 -9 0 2 / 3 7 8 .3 9 .1 9 .6 1 -8 9 2 -8 9 3 -8 9 4 -8 9 1 -9 0 3 -9 0 2 ,4 4 9 .8 2 ,5 2 6 .4 9 .3 2 ,5 8 2 .9 1 0 .3 1 1 .4 4 -9 0 1 -9 1 2 / 6 5 3 .5 P re p a re d by F e d e ra l R e se rv e Bank o f S t . O c t o b e r 2 1 , 1991 L o u is FEDER AL GOVERNM ENT D E B T (billions of dollars) Seasonally Adjusted End of Month Totals Gross federal debt Federal debt held by agencies and trusts Net federal debt Federal debt held by Federal Reserve Banks Federal debt held by private investors Federal debt held by foreign investors March June September December 2248.9 2311.6 2362.1 2417.2 414.5 432.9 459.0 473.4 1833.8 1878.7 1902.6 1944.4 199.4 211.7 214.5 217.4 1628.4 1668.1 1690.8 1726.2 271.7 278.0 282.3 301.5 March June September December 2487.6 2550.3 2615.3 2671.0 499.3 527.9 552.1 585.1 1998.7 2021.5 2062.0 2086.9 221.3 226.2 232.5 232.4 1763.7 1797.5 1832.2 1854.8 330.5 342.0 350.5 363.3 March June September December 2740.9 2802.7 2871.8 2938.3 618.0 650.0 678.1 703.6 2122.8 2150.7 2191.7 2236.3 232.8 230.2 224.2 222.4 1886.4 1920.6 1970.1 2011.8 373.6 366.2 400.9 392.9 March June September December 3049.0 3146.9 3249.5 3351.4 735.2 765.1 797.4 823.4 2315.4 2378.3 2449.8 2526.4 223.8 229.6 236.3 252.7 2094.2 2154.7 2220.6 2283.7 382.6 390.1 411.5 422.7 March June 3461.7 3541.5 881.8 883.6 2582.9 2653.5 252.3 252.8 2337.2 2412.4 426.5 439.4 C o lu m n s m ay not ad d b e c a u s e e a ch co m p o n e n t is s e a so n a lly adjusted separately. G ro s s federal debt e q u a ls deb t h e ld b y a g e n c ie s a n d tru sts p lu s net fe d e ra l debt. N et fe d eral deb t e q u a ls deb t h eld by F e d e ra l R e se rv e b a n k s p lu s deb t held by private in vestors (which in c lu d e s d e b t h e ld b y fo reig n investors). S o u rc e s: O rig in a l d a ta m ay b e found in the T re a s u ry B u lle tin an d a ls o in the F e d e ra l R e se rv e B u lle tin ; se a so n a lly a dju sted s e rie s p re p a re d b y th is B an k. 21 FEDERAL GOVERNM ENT B U D G ETS (billions of dollars, quarterly totals seasonally adjusted at annual rates) Receipts Expenditures Surplus or i Quarters National income accounts budget Cyclically adjusted budget National income accounts budget Cyclically adjusted budget National income accounts budget Cyclically adjusted budget 1984 1 2 3 4 $ 711.1 721.9 728.3 742.7 $ 744.7 747.9 754.4 771.0 $ 865.6 885.3 901.1 930.2 $ 859.8 880.4 895.6 925.3 $ -1 5 4 .6 -1 6 3 .4 -1 7 2 .8 -1 8 7 .5 -1 1 5 .1 1985 1 2 3 4 796.5 758.7 794.1 805.3 819.3 780.7 811.8 822.0 958.2 969.9 996.7 1017.5 953.0 964.4 991.3 1012.6 -1 6 1 .6 -211.1 -2 0 2 .7 -2 1 2 .2 -1 3 3 .7 -1 9 5 .6 -2 3 6 .0 -2 0 6 .8 -1 8 9 .0 -1 8 5 .0 -1 8 2 .3 -1 3 2 .5 - 1 4 1 .2 -1 5 4 .3 -1 8 3 .7 - 1 7 9 .5 -1 9 0 .6 1986 1 2 3 4 810.9 815.9 830.9 853.8 816.4 832.2 852.1 875.5 1006.6 1051.9 1037.7 1042.8 1001.4 1045.2 1032.4 1038.7 1987 1 2 3 4 862.0 929.8 923.4 940.0 875.1 938.1 927.2 930.0 1060.0 1061.1 1064.9 1101.7 1057.4 1060.4 1065.6 1103.0 -1 9 8 .0 -1 3 1 .3 -1 4 1 .6 -1 6 1 .7 1988 1 2 3 4 943.0 972.5 976.7 997.5 924.9 949.5 953.0 971.4 1096.7 1109.4 1096.8 1153.8 1098.0 1111.4 1098.2 1156.1 -1 5 3 .7 -1 3 6 .9 -120.1 -1 5 6 .3 -1 7 3 .1 1989 1 2 3 4 1045.4 1062.2 1048.1 1055.7 1014.3 1032.2 1020.2 1035.4 1178.0 1184.9 1179.8 1205.8 1181.0 1187.3 1182.0 1208.2 -1 3 2 .6 -1 2 2 .7 -1 3 1 .7 -150.1 -1 6 6 .7 1990 1 2 3 4 1080.6 1105.8 1125.9 1126.5 1061.7 1093.4 1116.0 1132.1 1248.8 1271.7 1271.6 1310.8 1252.2 1275.4 1273.6 1311.2 -1 6 8 .3 -1 6 6 .0 -1 4 5 .7 -1 8 4 .3 -1 9 0 .5 1991 1 2 3 1134.5 1138.5 N.A. 1160.1 1173.7 N.A. 1261.4 1323.1 1337.1 1257.9 1319.3 N.A. -1 2 6 .9 -1 8 4 .6 N.A. - -2 1 3 .0 -1 8 0 .3 -1 6 3 .2 -1 2 2 .3 -1 3 8 .4 -1 7 3 .0 -1 6 1 .9 -1 4 5 .2 -1 8 4 .7 -1 5 5 .1 -1 6 1 .8 -1 7 2 .8 -1 8 2 .0 -1 5 7 .6 -1 7 9 .1 9 7 .8 -1 4 5 .6 N.A. N.A. — Not Available F is c a l y e a r s Actual 1984 Total budget Receipts Outlays Surplus or deficit ( - ) 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 $ 666.5 $ 734.1 $ 769.1 $ 854.1 $ 909.0 $ 990.7 $ 1031.3 $ 1053.8 851.8 1003.8 1064.1 1144.1 1322.6 946.3 990.3 1251.8 $ -185.3 $ -212.3 $ -221.2 $-149.7 $-155.1 $-153.4 $ -220.5 $-268.7 C a le n d a r y e a r s N a tio n a l in c o m e a cc o u n ts budget Receipts Expenditures Surplus or deficit( - ) $ 726.0 $ 788.7 $ 827.9 $ 913.8 $ 972.4 $ 1052.9 $ 1109.7 895.6 985.6 1034.8 1071.9 1114.2 1187.2 1275.7 $ -169.6 $ -196.9 $ -206.9 $-158.2 $-141.7 $-134.3 $ -166.0 C y c lic a lly a d ju ste d b u d g et Receipts Expenditures Surplus or deficit(-) $ 754.5 $ 808.5 $ 844.1 $ 917.6 $ 949.7 $ 1025.5 $ 1100.8 8 9 0 .3 9 8 0 .3 1 0 2 9 .4 1 0 7 1 .6 1 1 1 5 .9 1 1 8 9 .6 1 2 7 8 .1 $ -1 3 5 .8 $ -1 7 1 .9 $ -1 8 5 .4 $ -1 5 4 .0 $ -1 6 6 .2 $ -1 6 4 .1 $ -1 7 7 .3 F is c a l y e a r s r e f e r to t h e b u d g e t y e a r w h ic h r u n s fro m O c t o b e r 1 th r o u g h S e p t e m b e r 3 0 . T o t a l b u d g e t o u t la y s in c lu d e f e d e r a l e n t it ie s th a t a r e o ff-b u d g e t . C y c l ic a l ly a d j u s t e d b u d g e t d a t a a r e b a s e d o n a 6 p e r c e n t ra te o f u n e m p lo y m e n t . S o u r c e : O f f ic e o f M a n a g e m e n t a n d B u d g e t a n d U . S . D e p a r t m e n t o f C o m m e r c e . P r e p a r e d b y F e d e r a l R e s e r v e B a n k o f S t. L o u is 22 G o v e r n m e n t Deficit(-)/Surplus(+) Seasonally Adjusted Billions of Dollars -6 0 B illio n s o f D o lla r s - 1 1 0 -1 6 0 -2 1 0 -2 6 0 1985 1986 1987 1988 1990 1989 1991 National income accounts basis Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis F e d e r a l D e f e n s e E x p e n d it u r e s (C o m p o u n d e d A n n u a l R a te s o f C h a n g e ) T e r a in a l Q u a rte r I n i t i a l Q u a rte r 3 -6 6 4 -6 6 1 -8 7 2 -8 7 4 -8 6 - 7 .9 1 -6 7 0 .9 1 0 .5 2 -6 7 3 .5 9 .6 8.8 3 -6 7 5 .0 9 .6 9 .2 9 .6 1 .4 4 -6 7 1-66 2-66 3 -8 7 4 -8 7 2.6 5 .5 3 .6 2 .3 4 .5 3 .1 1.2 2.6 1.1 1.8 0 . 4 1 -9 0 2 -9 0 3 -9 0 4 -9 0 B i l l i o n s o f D o lla r s A n n u al R a te s 1 -9 1 2 9 6 .0 2 .9 1 -9 1 3 .3 4 .0 3 .6 3 .2 2 -9 1 2 .7 3 .4 3 .0 3 -6 6 4 -8 6 1 -8 7 2 -9 0 4 -8 9 0.8 3 .3 1 -9 0 3 -8 9 - 6 .1 -2 .7 3 .7 4 -6 9 2 -8 9 2 9 3 .9 3 .0 2 -6 9 3 -6 9 1 -6 9 3 0 0 .7 4 -9 0 1 -6 9 4 -8 8 2 8 7 .8 3 -9 0 4 -6 6 3 -8 8 2 6 0 .7 -1 .6 2.1 3 . 9 0 .7 -1 .7 1.6 3 . 0 -0 .2 2.0 3 . 3 2 .3 1 . 3 - 0 . 3 1.2 1.6 2 . 7 1.6 0.8 - 0 . 6 0.6 1.6 2.6 2.0 1.1 0.0 1.0 2 .5 1 .9 2.0 2 .3 3 .2 0 .9 1 .3 2.2 1 .4 0 . 7 - 0 . 2 0 . 5 2.0 2.6 2.2 1.6 0 . 9 1 . 7 2.1 2.6 2 . 3 1 . 7 1.1 1.8 2.2 2 . 9 2 . 4 1 . 9 1 .3 2.0 3 -6 6 1-88 2-68 2 .4 3 .2 2.6 3 . 5 2.6 2.2 2.8 2 -8 7 3 -8 7 4 -8 7 2 9 6 .6 0 .7 2 9 7 .1 - 0 .7 - 2 .1 1 .4 1 .7 5 .7 0 .5 0 .5 1.6 1.1 1.2 2.2 2 . 5 2 9 5 .5 2 9 9 .6 -1 .9 2 9 8 .2 2 .3 0 .7 3 .3 3 .7 3 .0 5 .5 7 .8 3 0 0 .6 3 0 6 .3 0 .5 0 .5 -0 .9 1 .9 3 .0 2 .9 0.6 11.1 1 .9 1.0 - 0 . 1 2.6 2.0 2.1 2 . 7 2.2 0 .4 1.8 3 .0 3 .0 1 .4 2.1 2 .3 2 .9 2 .5 3 .2 3 .2 3 .4 3 .7 4 .3 4 .2 5 .0 5 .3 2.1 6.0 8.6 4 .9 3 .7 4 .0 4 .7 4 .6 5 .4 5 .7 5 .3 2 .9 3 .1 3 .6 3 .4 4 .0 4 .1 3 -8 6 4 -8 6 1 -8 9 2 -8 9 1-66 2-66 -9 .0 2 9 9 .2 7 .1 3 0 7 .2 3 .2 3 0 9 .6 3 .5 3 .9 7 .8 10.2 1 6 .6 6 .5 7 .8 9 .4 1 2 .3 7 .9 3 .6 5 .8 4 .8 5 .2 5 .6 0 .4 -6 .5 3 -8 9 4 -8 9 1 -9 0 2 -9 0 3 -9 0 4 -9 0 1 -9 1 3 1 2 .6 3 2 5 .0 3 3 1 .2 3 2 5 .7 P re p a re d b y F e d e ra l R e s e rv e Bank o f S t . L o u is O c to b e r 2 9 , 1991 23 F e d e r a l N o n d e f e n s e E x p e n d it u r e s (C o m p o u n d e d A n n u a l R a te s o f C h a n g e ) T e r m in a l Q u a rte r I n i t i a l Q u a rte r 3-86 4 -8 6 1 -8 7 5 .9 1 -8 7 5 .7 5 .4 2 -8 7 2.8 1 .3 - 2 .6 3 -8 7 1 .7 0 .4 -2 .1 1-88 2-88 3 -8 8 4 -8 8 1 -8 9 2 -8 9 3 -8 9 4 -8 9 1 -9 0 2 -9 0 3 -9 0 4 -9 0 3 -8 7 4 -8 7 2 -8 9 3 -8 9 3 -9 0 4 -9 0 B i l l i o n s o f D o lla r s A nnu al R a te s 1 -9 1 7 6 4 .2 8 0 5 .7 5 .7 5 .8 1 0 .3 2 3 .6 3 .6 5 .8 9 .6 8 .5 1.6 6.2 4 .6 4 .3 4 .1 3 .3 2 .9 2 .5 3 .5 4 .9 5 .9 7 .4 9 .3 6.0 9 .8 7 .3 5 .9 6.6 6 . 7 8.1 6.1 6.1 6.2 7 . 4 6 .5 5 .1 5 .1 6.0 6.0 6.0 6.8 6 .7 6.8 6 . 9 7 . 0 6 .7 6 .3 6.6 6.6 6 .4 6 .7 8 .9 9 .0 3 .0 6 .9 7 .9 7 .4 7 .7 8 .7 7 .2 8 .5 7 .8 8 .7 7 .4 8 .5 8.8 1 1 .4 8.8 11.0 7 .1 7 .9 6 .5 7 .5 7 .7 7 .4 8.1 7 .0 7 .9 5 .3 5 .8 4 .5 7 .4 6 .3 3 -8 7 4 -8 7 7 .6 1 0 .4 8 7 9 .8 1 2 .5 7 .2 6.1 2 -8 7 8 5 4 .2 1 4 .0 4 .7 6.1 6.2 6.2 6.8 1 -8 7 10.6 2 9 .1 10.0 11.2 20.6 9 .1 6 .9 4 .9 4 -8 6 8 0 1 .3 - 5 .3 8 .3 2 -9 1 4 .8 0 .3 6.0 6.0 1 -9 1 4 .8 - 0 .7 8 1 2 .3 6 .4 5 .9 8 .7 8 0 0 .1 -2 .8 5 .9 3 -8 6 1 -8 9 2 -9 0 - 1 .6 4 .0 6 .3 4 -8 8 1 -9 0 7 6 7 .2 5 .8 5 .2 3 -8 8 4 -8 9 7 7 2 .2 4 .3 5 .9 1-88 2-88 7 6 2 .1 4 -8 6 4 -8 7 2 -8 7 6.1 8.1 2.1 8 8 4 .3 8 7 3 .5 - 1 .4 - 4 .8 4 .1 5 .1 1 6 .0 9 0 6 .6 7 .0 8 .7 1 6 .2 1 6 .4 8 .3 7 .4 8.8 1 3 .7 12.6 9 .0 9 .4 6.8 5 .9 6 .7 9 .8 7 .8 3 .7 -1 .3 8.1 9 .6 7 .4 6 .7 7 .5 10.2 8 .7 6 .3 5 .0 5 .2 5 .1 6.1 3 .9 2.8 2 .9 4 .3 -1 .2 -4 .4 7 .0 7 .1 8 .3 6 .4 5 .7 6.2 7 .9 4 .7 3 .7 5 .4 2 .4 3 2 .2 4 -8 8 1 -8 9 1 -9 0 2 -9 0 3 -9 0 4 -9 0 1 -9 1 1-88 2-88 3-88 2 -8 9 3 -8 9 2.1 6.6 4 -8 9 9 4 1 .6 9 6 2 .1 9 5 9 .0 1 1 .7 9 8 5 .8 - 5 .9 -2 0 .7 9 3 0 .2 9 9 7 .4 P re p a ra d by F e d e ra l R e se rv e Bank o f S t . L o u is O cto b e r 2 9 , 1991 24
@FedFRASER