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N

a t io n a l

E c o n o m

ic

T r e n d s

O cto b e r 1990
T h e

c u r r e n t

is

g r o w in g

in

s u r v e y

in

A u g u s t

1 9 8 3 .
fe ll

to

A u g u s t
T h e s e

I C

o f E c o n o m

c o n t r ib u t e

r e a l

1 9 7 7

(1 9 8 5
In d e x

P C

E

(w h e n

fo llo w in g

ic

=

o v e r

=

h o w

fo r

s ig n ific a n tly
th e

d a ta

r e d u c tio n s

in

1 7 .9

to

d o w n

to

b e

b o th

th e s e

th e s e

a d d e d

fr o m

lo n g e s t

p o in ts

(r e a l

O n e
T h e

its

( I C E ) ,

it s

J u ly

T h e

s h a rp ,

a b o u t

ta b le

C C I

1978

1979
1980

D e c e m b e r

1980

S e p te m b e r

1981

M a rc h

o n

th e

la s t

r e c o r d

6 5

b e lo w

A s

th e

o f

p e r c e n t
s h o w s

d a ta

t im e

fo r

th e

11

G N

th e
r e a l

w a s

th e s e

C C

s lo w e r

P C

to

I

E

1982

N o v e m b e r

1987

s in c e

A p r il

o f M ic h ig a n ,

t h is

lo w

w a s

in

D e p a r tm e n t’s

in

M a r c h

r e a l

1 9 8 9 .

P C E

g r o w th

s h o rt- ru n

th e

a n d

d ro p
( C C I)

s e r ie s .

in d ic a t o r s
P ,

h a p p e n e d

in

E

C C I

C o m m e r c e

le a d in g

w h a t

in d ic a t e ,

I C

o f

U . S .

o f r e a l

d e c lin e s

th e

e a c h

th e

s h a rp

In d e x

U n iv e r s ity

g r o w th

th e

g r o w th

I C

E

o fte n

d e c lin e

in
I C

a n d
E

- 3

in

r e a l

P C E

s u b s e q u e n t

(+ )

+ 3

d u r in g

p r e v io u s

s in c e
h a s

Ju ly

s lo w e d

n u m b e r

o f

( - )

m o n th s

-6

+
6

1 .1
2

8 .9

1 1 .3

N o v e m b e r

M a rc h

fo r

T h e r e

m e a s u re s .

P o in t

Ju ly

le v e l

s im u lt a n e o u s

a v a ila b le ).

re c e n t

o f th e

in d e x

u p

th e

C o n fid e n c e

lo w e s t

c o m p o s it e

m a k e

b e e n

C o n s u m e r

h is to r y .

C e n te r

it s

E

h a s

n a tio n ’s

th e

s p e n d in g ;

I C

t h is

R e s e a r c h

le v e l;

is

in

c o n c e r n

B o a r d ’s

t h is

S u r v e y

G r o w t h

D a te

t h is

c o n s u m e r

E )

b e c a m e

le v e l;

e x p a n s io n

o f

P C

o f

fo r

r e d u c tio n s

th e

s lo w d o w n .

to

re a s o n

th e

fr o m

m o n t h ly

p e a c e tim e

C o n fe r e n c e

J u ly

fr o m

in d ic a t o r s

e p is o d e s

s e r ie s

th e

c o n t in u e .

p o in ts

1 4 .4

e c o n o m ic

p r e v io u s

is

e x p e c t a tio n s .

le a d in g

e x a m p le ,

a n

w ill

s e c o n d - la r g e s t

e x p e n d itu r e s

s e v e n
o n

it

a n d

o ld ,

E x p e c ta tio n s

th e

c o n s id e r e d

A n a ly s is ,

y e a r s

lo n g

d o w n

1 0 0 ),

a re

c o n s u m p tio n

m o n t h ly

e ig h t

c o n fid e n c e

1 0 0 ),

(1 9 6 6

a re

f o llo w in g

la r g e

n e a r ly

o f C o n s u m e r

d e c lin e s

E

r e a l p e r s o n a l

w o u ld

h o w e v e r ,

th e

a n d

n o w

o f c o n s u m e r

8 3 .8

in

1 9 8 2 .

C C I

B u r e a u

o f

w a s

ila r ly ,

6 2 .9

T h e

S in c e

c o n c e r n ,

m e a s u re s

S im

A u g u s t

e x p a n s io n ,

7 .2

- 1 .5

2 .9

- 0 .7

3 .5

1 .6
0

- 1 .7

- 3 .6

0 .5

- 1 .0

0 .9

4 .9

0 .9

2 0 .3 *

8
.6
8
.1

5 .7 %

2.6

1 6 .5

3 .4 %

6

4 .4

- 1 .0

5 .6

5 .6

4 .8

- 0 .5

1 4 .3

7 .7

- 0 .5

7 .5

.8 *

1

2 .9 %

.1 %

2.0
0.2
1
.6

0 .5

2.6
5 .2

* In the following month

—

T H
F E D

C o u r te n a y

E

E R A L
R E S E R V E
R A N K

o f

S T . I X H

Ï S

V ie w s e x p re s s e d d o n o t n e ce ssarily re fle c t o ffic ia l p o sitio n s o f t h e Federal R eserve S ystem .



C .

S to n e

T O T A L CIVILIAN E M P L O Y M E N T
( C o m p o u n d e d A n n u a l Rates of C h a n g e )
THOU S A N D S
OF PERSONS

IN IT IA L MONTH

TERMINAL
MONTH

1-89

2-89

2.1

3-89

4-89

5-89

6-89

7-89

8-8 9

9-89 10-89 11-89 12-89

1-90

2-90

3-90

4 -90

5-90

6-90

7-90
116.757

1.2

3-89

2-89

117.047

3.0

117.084

4-89

1.5

1.7

0.4

5-89

1.3

1.3

0.4

0.5

6-89

1.9

2.0

1.7

2.4

4.3

7-89

1.4

1.4

1.0

1.2

1.6

117.132
117.542
117.436

-1.1

117.550

8-89

1.3

1.4

1.0

1.2

1.4

0.0

1.2

9-89

1.0

1.0

0.6

0.7

0.7

-0.4

-0.1

-1.3

117.419

10-89

l.l

1.1

0.8

0.9

0.9

0.1

0.5

0.2

1.2

1.2

1.0

1.1

1.2

0.6

1.0

1.0

2.1

117.585

1.7

11-89

117.836

2.6

117*888

12-89

1.2

1.2

1.0

1.0

1.1

0.6

0.9

0.9

1.6

1.6

0.5

1-90

1.0

1.0

0.8

0.9

0.9

0.5

0.7

0.6

1.1

0.9

0.1

-0.3

2-90

1.1

1,1

0.9

1.0

1.0

0.6

0.9

0.8

1.3

1.2

0.7

0.8

1.8

3-90

1.2

1.2

1.1

1.2

1.2

0.9

1.1

1.1

1.6

1.5

1.3

1.5

2.4

3.1

117.863
118.035
118.334

4-90

1.0

1.0

0.8

0.9

0.9

0.6

0.8

0.7

1.0

0.9

0.6

0.6

0.9

0.4

-2.2

5-90

1.1

1.1

1.0

1.0

1.0

0.8

0.9

0.9

1.2

1.1

0.9

0.9

1.2

1.1

0.1

2.4

118.116

6-90

1.1

1.0

0.9

1.0

1.0

0.7

0.9

0.9

1.1

1.0

0.8

0.9

1.1

0.9

0.2

1.4

7-90

0.7

0.7

0.6

0.6

0.6

0.3

0.4

0.4

0.5

0.4

0.1

0.1

0.2

-0.2

-1.0

-0.6

-2.0

-4.3

8-90

0.6

0.5

0.4

0.4

0.4

0.1

0.2

0.1

0.2

0.1

-0.2

-0.3

-0.3

-0.6

-1.4

-1.2

-2.3

-3.6

-3.0

1-89

2-89

3-89

4-89

5-89

6-89

7-89

8-89

9-89 10-89 11-89 12-89

1-90

2-90

3-90

4-90

5-90

6-90

7-90

118.350
0.4

118.389
117.953
117.658

IN IT IA L MONTH

PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS
SEPTEMBER 7. 1990

PAYROLL EMPLOYMENT*
( C o m p o u n d e d A n n u a l Rates of C h a n g e )
TERMINAL
MONTH

THOUSANDS
OF PERSONS

IN IT IA L MONTH
1-89

2-89

2.1

3-89

4-89

5-89

6-89

7-89

8-89

9-89 10-89 11-89 12-89

1-90

2-90

3-90

4-90

5-90

6-90

7-90

2.5

3-89

2-89

107.648
1.8

107.811

4-89

2.1

1.9

2.0

5-89

2.0

1.8

1.8

1.6

6-89

2.1

2.0

2.1

2.1

2.6

7-89

2.0

1.9

1.9

1.9

2.0

107.988
108.135
108.364
1.4

108.490

8-89

1.9

1.8

1.8

1.8

1.8

1.5

1.5

9-89

2.0

2.0

2.0

2.0

2.0

1.9

2.1

108.628
2.7

108.868

10-89

1.9

1.9

1.9

1.8

1.9

1.7

1.8

2.0

1.2

11-89

2.0

2.0

2.0

2.0

2.1

2.0

2.1

2.3

2.1

3.0

108.980
109.245

12-89

2.0

1.9

1.9

1.9

2.0

1.9

2.0

2.1

1.9

2.2

1.5

1-90

2.1

2.0

2.1

2.1

2.1

2.0

2.2

2.3

2.2

2.5

2.3

2-90

2.2

2.1

2.2

2.2

2.3

2.2

2.3

2.5

2.4

2.7

2.6

3.2

3.4

3-90

2.1

2.1

2.1

2.2

2.2

2.2

2.3

2.4

2.3

2.5

2.4

2.7

2.6

1.8

4-90

2.0

2.0

2.0

2.0

2.1

2.0

2.1

2.1

2.1

2.2

2.1

2.2

1.9

1.2

0.6

5-90

2.2

2.2

2.2

2.2

2.3

2.3

2.4

2.4

2.4

2.6

2.5

2.7

2.7

2.4

2.7

4.9

6-90

2.2

2.2

2.2

2.3

2.3

2.3

2.4

2.4

2.4

2.6

2.5

2.7

2.6

2.4

2.6

3.6

7-90

2.0

2.0

2.0

2.0

2.1

2.0

2.1

2.1

2.1

2.2

2.1

2.1

2.0

1.7

1.7

2.1

0.7

-1.0

8-90

1.9

1.9

1.9

1.9

1.9

1.8

1.8

1.9

1.8

1.9

1.7

1.8

1.6

1.3

1.2

1.3

0.2

-0.9

-0.8

1-89

2-89

3-89

4-89

5-89

6-89

7-89

8-89

9-89 10-89 11-89 12-89

1-90

2-90

3-90

4-90

5-90

6-90

7-90

» R EVISED F R O M 1985
P- PRELIMINARY




109*383
3.0

109.654
109.958
110.122
110.177
110.617
2.3

110.829
110.740P
110.665P

I NITIAL M O N T H

P R E P A R E D B Y F E D E R A L R E S E R V E B A N K O F ST. LOU I S
SE P T E M B E R 7. 1990

2




EMPLOYMENT
RATIO

SCALE

MILLIONS

OF

RATIO
PERSONS

SEASONALLY ADJUSTED

MILLIONS

OF

SCALE

PERSONS

SOURCEt U.S.DEPARTMENT OF LABOR
BEGINNING JANUARY I OS«. TOTAL EMPLOYMENT DATA INCORPORATE NEW PROCEDURES FOR ESTIMATING
MEASURES OF IMMIGRATION AND EMIGRATION INCREASING TOTAL EMPLOYMENT BY ABOUT 0.3X.
PERCENTAGES ARE ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE FOR PERIODS INDICATED.
LATEST DATA PLOTTEDt AUGUST PRELIMINARY
"REVISED FROM 1965

PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS

UNEMPLOYMENT

1982

1983

1984

1985

1986

RATE

1987

1988

1989

1990

SOURCEt U.S. DEPARTMENT OF LABOR
PERCENT OF CIVILIAN LABOR FORC~
LATEST DATA PLOTTEDt AUGUST
P R EP A R ED

3

BY F E D E R A L

RESERVE

BANK OF

S T.

L O U IS

C O N S U M E R PRICE I N D E X F O R A LL U R B A N C O N S U M E R S
( C o m p o u n d e d A n n u a l Rates of C h a n g e )

T M A
ER IN L
M NH
OT

INITIAL M NH
OT

1-89

2-89

5-89

4-89

5-89

6-89

7-89

8-89

1 8 *10
9 2-84 0

9-89 10-89 11-89 12-89

1-90

2-90

5-90

4-90

5 -90

6-90

7-90
121.9

2-89

5.1

5-89

5.6

6.1

4-89

6.4

7.1

122.5
8.1

125.5

5-89

6.0

6.4

6.5

5.4

5.5

5.5

4.0

125.8

5.0

6-89

2.9

124.1
124.5

7-89

5.2

5.2

5.0

4.0

5.4

5.9

8 -89

4.4

4.5

4.0

2.9

2.5

1.9

9-89

4.2

4.1

5.8

2.9

2.4

2.5

1.5

2.9

10-89

4.4

4.5

4.1

5.4

5.1

5.2

2.9

4.4

5.9

11-89

4.4

4.5

4.1

5.5

5.5

5.5

5.2

4.2

4.9

5.9

12-89

4.4

4.5

4.2

5.7

5.5

5.6

5.5

4.4

4.9

4.4

124.5

0.0

124.8
125.4
125.8
126.5

4.9

1-90

5.2

5.2

5.1

4.8

4.8

5.0

5.2

6.5

7.1

7.5

9.4

14.1

2-90

5.2

5.5

5.2

4.9

4.9

5.1

5.5

6.2

6.9

7.1

8 .2

9.9

5.8

127.7

5-90

5.5

5.5

5.2

5.0

5.0

5.2

5.5

6.1

6.7

6.8

7.6

8.5

5.8

5.8

128.5
128.9

4-90

5.0

5.0

5.0

4.7

4.7

4.9

5.0

5.6

6.0

6.0

6.4

6.8

4.5

5.8

1.9

5-90

4.8

4.8

4.7

4.5

4.4

4.6

4.6

5.2

5.5

5.4

5.6

5.8

5.8

5.2

1.9

1.9

129.1
129.5

6-90

4.9

4.9

4.9

4.6

4.6

4.8

4.8

5.5

5.6

5.6

5.8

5.9

4.4

4.0

5.5

4.5

6.7

7-90

4.9

4.9

4.9

4.6

4.6

4.8

4.8

5.5

5.5

5.5

5.7

5.8

4.4

4.2

5.8

4.4

5.7

4.7

8-90

5.2

5.2

5.1

4.9

4.9

5.1

5.2

5.6

5.9

5.9

6.1

6.2

5.2

5.1

4.9

5.7

7.0

7.1

9.6

1-89

2-89

5-89

4-89

5-89

6-89

7-89

8-89

9-89 10-89 11-89 12-89

1-90

2-90

5-90

4-90

5-90

6-90

7-90

150.0
150.5
151.5

IN ITIAL M O N T H

PR E P A R E D B Y F E D E R A L R E S E R V E B A N K O F ST. L O U I S
SEPT E M B E R 18» 1990

P R O D U C E R PRICE INDEX, FINISHED G O O D S
( C o m p o u n d e d A n n u a l Rates of C h a n g e )
TERMINAL
MONTH

INITIAL MON T H
1-89

2-89

5-89

4-89

5-89

6-89

7-89

8-89

1982 « 100

9-89 10-89 11-89 12-89

1-90

2-90

5-90

4-90

5 -90

6-90

7-90
111.9

2-89

7.8

5-89

6.7

5.5

4-89

7.0

6.6

7.7

112.4
115.1

5-89

7.5

7.5

8.5

8.8

6-89

6.2

5.7

5.8

4.9

1.1

115.9

7-89

4.4

5.7

5.2

1.8

-1.6

-4.1

8-89

5.5

2.5

1.9

0.5

-2.1

-5.6

-5.1

9-89

5.9

5.4

5.0

2.1

0.5

0.4

2.7

8 .8

10-89

4.2

5.8

5.5

2.8

1.7

1.9

5.9

7.6

6.5

11-89

5.9

5.5

5.2

2.6

1.6

1.7

5.2

5.4

5.7

1.1

12-89

4.2

5.9

5.7

5.2

2.4

2.6

4.1

5.9

5.0

4.5

7.6

1-90

5.8

5.7

5.7

5.5

5.0

5.6

7.5

9.6

9.8

10.9

16.1

25.4

2-90

5.4

5.2

5.2

4.9

4.5

4.9

6.5

7.9

7.7

8.1

10.5

12.0

0.0

114.0
115.6
115.5
114.1
114.7
114.8
115.5
117.7
117.7

5-90

4.8

4.6

4.5

4.5

5.8

4.1

5.2

6.4

6.0

6.0

7.2

7.1

-1.0

-2.0

4-90

4.4

4.1

4.0

5.7

5.5

5.5

4.4

5.5

4.9

4.6

5.5

4.7

- 1.4

-2.0

- 2.0

5-90

*•2

5.9

5.8

5.5

5.1

5.5

4.0

4.9

4.4

4.1

4.6

4.0

-0.8

-1.0

-0.5

6-90

4.0

5.8

5.7

5.4

5.0

5.2

5.8

4.6

4.1

5.8

4.2

5.7

- 0.2

-0.5

0.5

1.5

2.1

7-90

5.7

5.5

5.4

5.1

2.7

2.8

5.4

4.1

5.6

5.5

5.5

5.0

-0.5

-0.4

0.0

0.7

0.5

-1.0

8-90

4.4

4.2

4.1

5.9

5.6

5.7

4.4

5.0

4.7

4.5

4.9

4.6

1.9

2.2

5.1

4.4

5.6

7.4

16.4

1-89

2-89

5-89

4-89

5-89

6-89

7-89

8-89

9-89 10-89 11-89 12-89

1-90

2-90

5-90

4-90

5-90

6-90

7-90




117.5
117.5
1.0

117.4
117.6
117.5
119.0

INITIAL M NH
OT
PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE B N O ST. LOUIS
AK F
SEPTEM
BER 1 » 1 9
4 90

4




RATI O SCALE
1982-100

P R I C E S

RATI O SCALE
1982-100
145

SEASONALLY ADJUSTED

135

125

115

150
140

130

120

I 10

100

90

80
CONSUMER PR IC ES DATA ARE ON A 1982-84-100 BASE
CPI-U DATA BE6INMIN6 1983 INCORPORATE A RENTAL EQUIVALENCE MEASURE FOR HOMEOVNERSHIP COSTS.
PERCENTAOES ARE ANNUAL RATES OF CHANOE FOR PERIOOS INDICATED.
LATEST DATA PLOTTED* AUGUST

PREPARED 8Y FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS

RATIO

SCALE

1982-100

P R O D U C E R

P R I C

E S

SEASONALLY ADJUSTED

RATIO

SCALE

1982-100

PERCENTAGES ARE ANNUAL RATES OF CHANCE FOR PERIOOS INDICATED.
LATEST DATA PLOTTED« AUGUST
P R E PA R E D BY F E D E R A L R E S E R V E BANK OF S T .

L O U IS

P R O D U C E R PRICE INDEX, FINISHED C O N S U M E R F O O D S
( C o m p o u n d e d A n n u a l Rates of C h a n g e )
TERMINAL
MONTH

1982 * 100

I N ITIAL M O N T H
1-89

2-89

8.5

5-89

4-89

6-89

7-89

8-89

9-89 10-89 11-89 12-89

1-90

2-90

5-90

4-90

5-90

6-90

7-90
117.9

9.6

5-89

2-89

5-89

7.4

118.6
118.0

4-89

5.5

0.5

- 5.9

5-89

4.2

2.4

0.0

6-89

1.9

0.0

-2.5

118.6

6.5
-0.5

- 6.9

117.9
118.1

7-89

1.9

0.4

-1.5

0.5

-2.5

2.1

8-89

2.2

1.0

-0.2

1.5

-0.5

5.1

4.1
-4.0

•

118.5
118.1

»-89

1.4

0.5

-0.8

0.2

-1.5

0.7

0.0

10-89

5.1

2.5

1.6

2.9

2.2

4.7

5.5

6.2

17.5

7.6

14.0

119.7
10.5

120.7

5.8

5.2

2.7

4.0

5.6

5.8

12-89

4.5

5.8

5.4

4.6

4.4

6.4

7.5

8.1

12.4

9.9

9.5

9.6

11.0

12.4

16.9

16.7

19.9

51.4

11.8

15.5

14.7

16.1

19.7

9.0

9.1

11.5

10.5

10.5

10.6

1.5

1
o

11-89

6.8

6.5

6.0

5.9

7.5

7.4

2-90

6.5

6.5

6.2

7.5

7.6

9.6

10.7

5-90

5.6

5.5

5.1

6.2

6.2

7.8

8.5

4-90

4.5

4.1

5.9

4.7

4.6

5.8

6.5

6.5

8.1

6.6

5.9

121.6

5.0

124.4
125.5
-5.6

124.7

-2.5

-7.9 -10.1
7.0

125.6

1.0

- 4.7

5-90

4.6

4.5

4.1

4.9

4.8

5.9

6.5

6.6

8.0

6.7

6.1

5.4

-0.2

-5.2

-1.9

6-90

4.1

5.7

5.5

4.2

4.0

5.0

5.5

5.4

6.5

5.2

4.4

5.7

-1.2

-5. 5

-2.9

7-90

5.8

5.5

5.5

5.9

5.7

4.6

4.8

4.9

5.8

4.6

5.9

5.1

-1.0

-2.8

-2.1

0.6

-2.4

0.0

6.2

5.1

4.6

4 .0

0.6

-0.8

0.2

2 .9

1.6

4.9

10.1

9-89 10-89 11-89 12-89

1-90

2-90

5-90

4-90

5-90

6-90

7-90

4.2

5.9

5.7

4.3

4.2

5.0

5.2

5.5

1-89

8-90

2-89

5-89

4-89

5-89

6-89

7-89

8-89

124.5
125.8
125.8
124.8

INITIAL M O N T H

P R E P A R E D B Y F E D E R A L R E S E R V E B ANK O F ST. LO U I S
SEPT E M B E R 14. 1990

P R O D U C E R PRICE INDEX, FINISHED G O O D S , E X C L U D I N G F O O D S
( C o m p o u n d e d A n n u a l Rates of C h a n g e )
T ERMINAL
MONTH

INITIAL M O N T H
1-89

2-89

5-89

2-89

6.8
8.5

7.9

9.1

9.0

11.4

7-89

8- 8 9

1982 * 100

9-89 10-89 11-89 12-89

1-90

2-90

5-90

4-90

5-9 0

6-90

7-90

11.4

5-89

6-89

4.5

4-89

5-89

9.2

3-89

4-89

110.0
110.4
111.4
11.5

112.4

6-89

7.9

7.5

8.6

7.2

5.5

7-89

5.4

4.6

4.7

2.5

-1.6

-6.2

112.7
112.1

8-89

5.6

2.7

2.4

0.5

-5.2

-6.2

-6.2

9-89

5.0

4.4

4.4

5.0

1.1

0.4

5.8

14.9

10-89

4.8

4.5

4.2

5.1

1.5

1.1

5.6

8.9

111.5
112.8
5.2

115.1

11-89

4.1

5.5

5.4

2.5

0.9

0.4

2.2

5.1

0.5

-2.1

12-89

4.5

5.8

5.8

2.8

1.7

1.4

5.0

5.5

2.5

2.1

6.6

1-90

5.9

5.6

5.7

5.1

4.5

4.5

6.5

9.1

7.6

9.1

15.2

24.6

2-90

5.1

4.7

4.8

4.1

5.5

5.5

4.8

6.7

5.2

5.7

8.4

9.5

-4.1

5-90

4.7

4.4

4.5

5.7

5.0

5.0

4.2

5.8

4.5

4.5

6.2

6.1

-2.1

112.9
115.5
115.6
115.2
0.0

115.2

4-90

4.4

4.0

4.0

5.4

2.7

2.7

5.7

5.0

5.7

5.7

5 .0

4.6

-1.4

0.0

0.0

5-90

4.0

5.7

5.6

5.1

2.4

2.5

5.2

4.5

5.1

5.1

5.9

5.4

-1.5

- 0.5

-0. 5

-1. 0

6-90

4.1

5.8

5.8

5.2

2.6

2.6

5.4

4.4

5.5

5.5

4.1

5.7

0.0

1.0

1.4

2.1

5.5

7-90

3.8

3.4

3.4

2.9

2.5

2.2

2.9

5.8

2.8

2.7

5.5

2 .9

-0.5

0.4

0.5

0.7

1.6

-2.1

8-90

4.5

4.5

4.2

5.8

5.5

5.5

4.1

5.0

4.2

4.5

5.0

4.8

2.2

5.5

4.0

5.0

7.1

8.0

19.2

1-89

2-89

5-89

4-89

5-89

6-89

7-89

8 -89

9-89 10-89 11-89 12-89

1-90

2-90

5-90

4-90

5-90

6-90

7-90




115.2
115.1
115.6
115.4
117.1

INITIAL M O N T H

P R E P A R E D B Y F E D E R A L R E S E R V E B A N K O F ST. LOUIS
S E P T E M B E R 14. 1990

6

I N D U S T R I A L

RATIO

P R O D U C T I O N

SCALE

RATIO

1987-100

1982

SCALE

1987-100

SEASONALLY ADJUSTED

1983

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

PERCENTAGES ARE ANNUAL RATE$ OF CHANGE FOR PERIODS INDICATED.
LATEST DATA PLOTTED * AUGUST
PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS

INDUSTRIAL P R O D U C T I O N
( C o m p o u n d e d A n n u a l Rates of C h a n g e )
TERMINAL
MONTH

IN IT IA L MONTH
1-89

2-89

5-89

4-89

5-89

6-89

7-89

8-89

1987 « 100

9-89 10-89 11-89 12-89

1-90

2-90

5-90

4-90

5-90

6-90

7-90
107.6

2-89

-1.1

5-89

0.0

1.1

4-89

5*4

5.7

107.7
10.5

108.6

5-89

1.7

2.6

5.4

-5.5

6-89

1.6

2.2

2.6

-1.1

1.1

7-89

0.2

0.4

0.5

-2.9

-2.7

8-89

0.8

1.1

1.1

-1.1

-0.4

-1.1

4.5

9-89

0.7

1.0

0.9

-0.9

-0.5

-0.7

2.2

10-89

0.0

0.1

0.0

-1.7

-1.5

-1.9

-0.4

-2.7

-5.4

11-89

0.4

0.6

0.6

-0.8

-0.4

-0.7

0.8

-0.4

-0.6

4.5

12-89

0.9

1.1

1.1

0.0

0.5

0.4

1.8

1.1

1.5

5.1

1-90

-0.2

-0.1

-0.2

-1.5

-1.1

-1.4

-0.6

-1.5

-1.9

-0.7

2-90

0.7

0.8

-0.1

0.2

0.1

1.1

0.6

0.7

2.2

1.5

-0.6

11.8

5-90

1.0

1.1

1.1

0.5

0.7

0.6

1.5

1.1

1.5

2.7

2.2

1.1

8.1

4-90

0.8

1.0

0.9

0.2

0.5

0.4

1.2

0.8

1.0

2.1

1.6

0.6

4.9

1.7

-1.1

5-90

1.2

1.5

1.4

0.7

1.0

1.0

1.8

1.5

1.7

2.7

2.4

1.8

5.4

5.4

2.8

6.8

6-90

1.5

1.7

1.7

1.1

1.4

1.5

2.2

2.0

2.2

5.2

5.0

2.6

5.7

4.2

4.1

6.8

6.8

7-90

1.4

1.6

1.6

1.0

1.5

1.4

2.0

1.8

2.0

2.9

2.6

2.2

4.7

5.4

5.1

4.5

5.5

0.0

8-90

1.2

1.4

1.4

0.8

1.1

1.1

1.7

1.5

1.6

2.5

2.1

1.7

5.7

2.4

2.0

2.8

1.5

-1.1

-2.2

1-89

2-89

5-89

4-89

5-89

6-89

7-89

8-89

9-89 10-89 11-89 12-89

1-90

2-90

5-90

4-90

5-90

6-90

7-90

108.5
108.4
-6.4

107.8
108.2
0.0

108.2
107.7
108.1
5.7

108.6

-5.5 -11.5

107.5
108.5
108.9

4.5

108.8
109.4
110.0
110.OP
109.8P

INITIAL M O N T H
P- P R ELIMINARY




P R E P A R E D B Y FEDE R A L R E S E R V E BAN K OF ST* LOUIS
S E P T E M B E R 14. 1990

7

P E R S O N A L

RATIO

SCALE

TRILLIONS

MONTHLY

OF

DOLLARS

I N C O M E

TOTALS

AT

SEASONALLY

ANNUAL

RATIO

RATES

TRILLIONS

ADJUSTED

OF

SCALE

DOLLARS

3.

3.8

3.

3.4

3.

3.0

2 .

2 .6

1982

1983

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

2 .2

SOURCE: U.S. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE
PERCENTAGES ARE ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE FOR PERIODS INDICATED.
LATEST DATA PLOTTED« AUGUST PRELIMINARY
PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS

PERSONAL INCOME
( C o m p o u n d e d A n n u a l Rates of C h a n g e )
INITIAL M O N T H

TERMINAL
MONTH
1-89

2-89

5-89

4-89

5-89

6-89

7-89

8-89

9-89 10-89 11-89 12-89

1-90

2-90

5-90

4-90

5-90

6-90

7-90

BILLIONS OF
DOL L A R S
ANN U A L R A T E S
4*502.2

2-89

11.9

5-89

11.8

11.7

4-89

9.4

8.2

4.8

5-89

6.8

5.2

2.0

-0.7

6-89

6.5

5.0

2.8

1.8

4.4

7-89

6.5

5.4

5.9

5.6

5.8

7.5

8-89

5.6

4.5

5.2

2.7

5.9

5.6

0.1

9-89

5.3

4.4

5.2

2.9

5.8

5.6

1.8

5.6

10-89

5.6

4.9

5.9

5.8

4.7

4.8

5.9

5.9

8 .5

11-89

5.9

5.2

4.4

4.4

5.5

5.4

5.0

6.6

8 .2

8.1

12-89

6.0

5.4

4.8

4.8

5.6

5.8

5.5

6.8

7.9

7.8

7.4

1-90

6.5

5.8

5.5

5.5

6.1

6.5

6.2

7.4

8.4

8.5

8 .6

9.9

2-90

6.5

6.0

5.5

5.6

6.5

6.6

6.5

7.5

8 .4

8.4

8 .5

9.0

8.1

5-90

6.7

6.5

5.8

5.9

6.6

6.8

6.8

7.8

8 .5

8.5

8 .6

9.0

8 .6

9.1

4-90

6.4

6.0

5.6

5.6

6.2

6.4

6.3

7.1

7.6

7.5

7.4

7.4

6.5

5.8

2.6

5-90

6.5

5.9

5.5

5.5

6.1

6.2

6.1

6.8

7.2

7.1

6.9

6.8

6.0

5.5

5.5

4.5

4 >542.2
4 * 559.5
4 * 556.8
4*5 7 2 . 5
4 * 5 98.2
4*5 9 8 . 7
4 *411.6
4 * 441.0
4 , 470.0
4 * 496.7
4 * 552.2
4 * 561.6
4 * 594.7
4*604.5
4*621.4

6-90

6.2

5.8

5.5

5.5

6.0

6.1

6.0

6.6

7.0

6.8

6.6

6.5

5.8

5.5

4.1

4.8

5.1

7-90

6.2

5.9

5.5

5.6

6.0

6.2

6.1

6.6

6.9

6.8

6.6

6.5

5.9

5.5

4.6

5.5

5.8

6.4

8-90

6.1

5.7

5.4

5.4

5.9

6.0

5.9

6.5

6.6

6.4

6.2

6.1

5.6

5.2

4.4

4.8

5.0

4.9

5.4

1-89

2-89

5-89

4-89

5-89

6-89

7-89

8-89

9-89 10-89 11-89 12-89

1-90

2-90

5-90

4-90

5-90

6-90

7-90

4*640.7
4*664.7
4 * 6 7 7 . 7P

INITIAL M O N T H
P- PRELIMINARY




P R E P A R E D B Y F E D E R A L RES E R V E B A N K OF ST. LOU I S
S E PTEMBER 26* 1990

8

RETAIL
RATIO

SALES
RATIO

SCALE

BILLIONS

1982

OF

DOLLARS

1983

SEASONALLY

1984

1985

BILLIONS

ADJUSTED

1986

1987

1988

1989

OF

SCALE

DOLLARS

1990

SOURCEt U.S. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE
PERCENTAGES ARE ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE FOR PERIODS INDICATED.
LATEST DATA PLOTTED* JULY, AUGUST ADVANCE ESTIMATE
PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS

RETAIL SALES
( C o m p o u n d e d A n n u a l Rates of C h a n g e )
TERMINAL
MONTH

MILLIONS OF
DOLLARS

IN IT IA L MONTH
1-89

2-89

5-89

4-89

5-89

6-89

7-89

8-89

9-89 10-89 11-89 12-89

1-90

2-90

5-90

4-90

5-90

6-90

7-90
141.179

2-89

-7.5

5-89

-5.7

0.5

4-89

4.7

11.4

25.7

5-89

5.4

10.1

15.4

4—
89

5.6

6.6

2.0

-5.4

7-89

4.4

6.9

4.0

2.5

8.5

8-89

5.7

8.1

9.7

6.4

6.1

11.1

14.0

9-89

5.5

7.5

8.7

5.9

5.5

8.7

8.8

10-89

5.0

4.5

4.9

2.1

1.0

2.2

0.2

-6.1 -15.1

11-89

5.6

4.9

5.1

2.4

5.6

2.4

-1.2

-5.6

9.4

12-89

2.9

5.9

4.4

2.2

1.4

2.2

1.1

-2.0

-5.8

2.5

-4.5

1-90

5.5

6.7

7.4

5.7

5.5

6.8

6.6

5.2

5.5

15.4

15.4

59.2

2-90

5.1

6.2

6.7

5.2

4.9

6.0

5.7

4.5

4.4

9.9

10.1

18.1

0.2

5-90

4.5

5.5

4.2

5.9

4.7

4.5

5.0

2.8

6.8

6.2

9.9

-2.5

-4.7

4-90

5.2

4.1

4.4

2.9

2.5

5.1

2.5

1.1

0.8

5.7

2.6

4.5

-5.2

-7.8 -10.8

5-90

5.0

5.7

4.0

2.6

2.2

2.7

2.2

0.9

0.6

5.0

2.0

5.5

-4.1

-5.5

-6.0

-0.8

6—
90

5.6

4.4

4.6

5.4

5.1

5.6

5.2

2.2

2.0

4.4

5.6

5.0

-0.7

-0.9

0.5

6.4

14.5

7-90

5.7

4.4

4.7

5.5

5.2

5.7

5.4

2.4

2.5

4.4

5.8

5.0

0.2

0.2

1.5

6.0

9.6

5.1

8-90

5.1

5.8

4.0

2.8

2.5

5.0

2.6

1.7

1.5

5.5

2.6

5.5

-0.8

-0.9

-0.2

2.7

5.9

-0.9

-6.6

1-89

2-89

5-89

4-89

5-89

6-89

7-89

8-89

9-89 10-89 11-89 12-89

1-90

2-90

5-90

4-90

5-90

6-90

7-90

141.214
145.744
144.626

7.6

144.210
145.170
146.767
147.255

5.9

145.244
146.540
145.804
149.877
149.904
149.502
147.886
147.781
149.452
150.049P
149.198E

IN ITIAL M O N T H
P- PRELIMINARY
E- E S TIMATED




P R E P A R E D B Y F E D E R A L R E S E R V E BAN K O F ST. L O U I S
S E P T E M B E R 14. 1990

9

H O U R L Y COMPENSATION, BUSINESS SECTOR
( C o m p o u n d e d A n n u a l Rates of C h a n g e )
T ERMINAL
QUARTER

INITIAL Q U A R T E R
5-85

4-85

1-86

2 -86

5-86

4-86

1-87

2-87

5-87

4-87

1982*100
2-88

1-88

5-88

4-88

1-89

2-89

5-89

4-89

1-90
115.5

4-85

6« 1

1-86

5.7

2-86

5.5

4.9

4.5

5-86

5.1

4.8

4.5

4.5

116.8

5.5

118.1
1Î9.4
120.9

4— 86

5.1

4.9

4.7

4.8

5.1

1-87

4.7

4.4

4.2

4.1

5.9

2.7

2-87

4.5

4.0

5.7

5.5

5.1

2.2

121.7
122.2

1.7

125.5

5-87

4.5

4.0

5.8

5.6

5.4

2.9

5.0

4.5

4-87

4.6

4.4

4.2

4.2

4.1

5.9

4.5

5.6

7.0

1-88

4.5

4.4

4.2

4.2

4.1

4.0

4.5

5.2

5.6

4.2

2-88

4.6

4.5

4.4

4.4

4.5

4.2

4.5

5.2

5.5

4.8

5.5

5-88

4.7

4.5

4.5

4.5

4.5

4.4

4.7

5.5

5 .5

5.0

5.4

5.4

4-88

4.6

4.5

4.4

4.4

4.4

4.5

4.5

5.0

5.1

4.7

4.9

4.6

125.6
126.9
128.6
150.5
5.7

151.5

1-89

4.4

4.5

4.2

4.2

4.2

4.1

4.2

4.6

4 .6

4.2

4.2

5.7

2.9

2.1

2-89

4.5

4.2

4.1

4.0

4.0

5.9

4.0

4.5

4.5

5.9

5.8

5.4

2.8

2.5

5-89

4.1

4.0

5.9

5.8

5.8

5.6

5.7

4.0

5.9

5.5

5.4

5.0

2.4

1.9

1.8

1.2

4-89

4.0

5.9

5.8

5.7

5.7

5.6

5.6

5.8

5.8

5.4

5.5

2.9

2.4

2.1

2.1

2.0

152.2
155.0

2.4

155.4
2.7

154.5

1-90

4.0

5.9

5.8

5.7

5.7

5.6

5.6

5.8

5.8

5.4

5.5

5.0

2.6

2.4

2.5

2.5

5.2

5.6

2-90

4.1

4.0

5.9

5.9

5.8

5.7

5.8

4.0

4.0

5.7

5.6

5.4

5.1

5.0

5.2

5.4

4.1

4.8

6.0

5-85

4-85

1-86

2-86

5-86

4-86

1-87

2-87

5-87

4 -87

1-88

2-88

5-88

4-88

1-89

2-89

5-89

4-89

1-90

155.5
157.5

I NITIAL QUAR T E R

P R E P A R E D B Y F E D E R A L R E S E R V E B A N K O F ST. L O U I S
S E P T E M B E R 4. 1990

O U T P U T PER H O U R O F ALL PERSONS, BUSINESS SECTOR
( C o m p o u n d e d A n n u a l Rates of C h a n g e )
T ERMINAL
QUARTER

INITIAL QUA R T E R
5-85

4-85

1-86

2-86

5-86

4-86

1-87

2-87

5-87

4 -87

1982*100
2-88

1-88

5-88

4-85

4.5

7.2

2-86

2.5

5.0

-l.l

5-86

1.5

1.5

-1.5

-1. 5

4-86

1.5

1.5

- 0.6

-0.4

1.2

1.1

-0.4

-0.1

0.5

2-87

1.5

1.5

0.4

0.7

1.5

1.8

1.7

1.7

0.8

1.2

1.8

2.2

5.1

1.8

1.8

1.0

1.4

2.0

2.5

2.9

2.7

2.0

2.0

1.4

1.8

2.5

2.6

5.2

5.1

5.5

2-88

1.7

1.7

1.1

1.4

1.8

2.0

2.5

2.1

1.8

1.4

-l.l

5-88

1.8

1.8

1.5

1.5

1.9

2.1

2.4

2.2

2 .0

1.8

0.7

2.5

4—88

1.5

1.5

1.0

1.2

1.5

1.6

1.8

1.6

1.5

1.0

0.0

0.5

1-90

2.5

1-88

4-89

2.9

4-87

5 -89

5.5

5-87

2-89

0.7

1-87

1-89

1.5

1-86

4-88

-1.4

108.1
110.0
109.7
109.5
109.5
0.4

109.6
110.5
111.5
112.0
4.0

115.1
112.8
115.5
115.1

1-89

1.5

1.5

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.5

1.7

1.4

1.2

0.9

0.2

0.6

-0.4

0.7

2-89

1.4

1.4

0.9

1.1

1.5

1.4

1.5

1.5

1.0

0*8

0.1

0.4

-0. 2

0.4

0.0

115.5
115.5

5-89

1.2

1.1

0.7

0.9

1.1

l.l

1.2

0.9

0.7

0.4

-0.2

0.0

-0.6

-0. 4

-0.9

-1 . 8

4-89

1.0

1.0

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.8

0.9

0.6

0.4

0.1

-0.4

-0.5

-0. 8

-0.7

-1 . 2

-1.8

- 1. 8

1-90

0.9

0.8

0.4

0.5

0.7

0.7

0.7

0.5

0.2

0.0

-0.5

-0.5

- 0.9

-0.8

-1 . 2

-1.6

-1.6

-1.4

2-90

0.9

0.9

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.7

0.8

0.5

0.5

0.1

-0.5

-0.2

-0. 6

-0.5

-0.7

-0.9

-0.6

0.0

1.4

5-85

4-85

1-86

2-86

5-86

4-86

1-87

2-87

5 -87

4-87

1-88

2 -88

5-88

4-88

1-89

2-89

5-89

4-89

1-90




112.8
112.5
111.9
112.5

INITIAL Q U A RTER

P R E P A R E D B Y F E D E R A L R E S E R V E B A N K O F ST. L O U I S
S E P T E M B E R 4» 1990

10

P R O D UCTIVITY,
RATIO

COMPENSATION,

AND

LABOR

SCALE

1 982-100

1982

COSTS
RATIO

S EA SO N A L LY

1983

1984

1985

1986

SCALE

1982 -1 0 0

A D JU S TE D

1987

1988

1989

1990

SOURCE« U .S . DEPARTMENT OF LABOR
PERCENTAGES ARE ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE FOR PERIODS INDICATED.
LATEST DATA PLOTTEO« 2ND OUARTER
PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS

U N I T L A B O R COSTS, BUSINESS S E C T O R
( C o m p o u n d e d A n n u a l Rates of C h a n g e )
TERMINAL
QUARTER

IN IT IA L QUARTER
3-85

4-85

1-86

2-86

3-86

4-86

1-87

2-87

3-87

4-87

1-88

1982*100
2-88

3-88

4-88

1-89

2-89

3-89

4-89

1-90
106.7

4-85

5.0

1-86

1.5

2-86

2.8

1.7

5.4

3-86

3.6

3.1

5.7

4-86

3.8

3.5

5.3

5.3

4.5

1-87

3.5

3.2

4.5

4.2

3.3

2.2

2-87

2.8

2.4

3.3

2.8

1.7

0.4

-1.4

3-87

2.6

2.3

3.0

2.5

1.6

0.7

0.0

1.5

4-87

2.8

2.5

3.1

2.8

2.1

1.5

1.3

2.7

4.0

106.2

-1.9

107.6
6.1

109.2
110.4
111.0
110.6
111.0
112.1

1-88

2.5

2.3

2.8

2.4

1.8

1.3

1.1

1.9

2.2

0.4

2-88

2.9

2.7

3.2

2.9

2.5

2.2

2.2

3.1

3.6

3.4

6.6

3-88

2.9

2.7

3.2

2.9

2.5

2.3

2.3

3.0

3.4

3.2

4.7

2.8

4-88

3.1

2.9

3.4

3.2

2.8

2.6

2.7

3.4

3.8

3.7

4.9

4.1

5.3

112.2
114.0
114.8
116.3

1-89

3.0

2.8

3.2

3.0

2.7

2.5

2.5

3.1

3.4

3.3

4.0

3.2

3.3

1.4

2-89

2.9

2.8

3.1

2.9

2.7

2.5

2.5

3.0

3.3

3.1

3.7

3.0

3.0

1.9

2.4

3-89

2.9

2.8

3.1

2.9

2.7

2.5

2.5

3.0

3.2

3.1

3.5

2.9

3.0

2.2

2.6

2.8

4-89

3.0

2.9

3.2

3.1

2.8

2.7

2.8

3.2

3.4

3.3

3.7

3.2

3.3

2.8

3.3

3.8

4.8

1-90

3.1

3.0

3.3

3.2

3.0

2.9

2.9

3,4

3.5

3.5

3.9

3.5

3.6

3.3

3.8

4.2

5.0

5.1

2-90

3.2

3.1

3.4

3.3

3.1

3.0

3.1

3.4

3.6

3.6

3.9

3.6

3.7

3.5

3.9

4.3

4.8

4.7

4.4

3-85

4-85

1—
86

2-86

3-86

4-86

1-87

2-87

3-87

4-87

1-88

2-88

3-88

4-88

1-89

2-89

3-89

4-89

1-90




116.7
117.4
118.2
119.6
121.1
122.4

INITIAL QUARTER

P R E P A R E D B Y F E D E R A L R E S E R V E B ANK O F ST. L O U I S
S E P T E M B E R 4. 1990

11

G R O S S N A T I O N A L P R O D U C T IN C U R R E N T D O L L A R S
( C o m p o u n d e d A n n u a l Rates of C h a n g e )
T E RMINAL
QUARTER

IN IT IA L QUARTER
3-85

4— 8 5

1-86

2-86

3-86

4-86

1-87

2-87

3-87

4-87

1-88

4-85

6.7

7.3

2-86

4.9

4.3

1.3

3-86

5.1

4.7

3.5

5.7

4-86

4.9

4.6

3.7

5.0

5.6

5.5

5.0

6.3

6.6

9.1

2-87

5.9

5.8

5.5

6.6

6.9

8.3

6.1

6.0

5.8

6.8

7.0

8.0

7.4

6.3

6.4

6.2

7.1

7.4

8.2

7.8

8.0

6.5

6.5

6.4

7.2

7.4

8.1

7.8

8.0

8.3
8.3

8.1

1-90

7.8

8.0

4-89

8.7

1-88

3-89

7.4

4-87

2-8 9

7.5

3-87

1-89

4-8

4.2

1-87

3-88

6.2

1-86

2-88

BI L L I O N S O F
DO L L A R S
ANNUAL RATES

8.3

4,107.9
4»181.3
4.194.7
4 »253.3
4.297.3
4.391.6
4.471.6
4.551.7
4*647.6
4.735.8

7.3

7.6

8.1

7.9

6.7

7.3

7.5

8.0

7.8

7.9

8.0

7.8

7.8

7.4

6.8

6.8

7.4

7.5

8.0

7.8

7.9

8.0

7.8

7.8

7.5

7.7

6.9

6.9

7.4

7.5

7.9

7.8

7.8

7.9

7.7

7.7

7.5

7.6

7.5

6.8

6.8

6.8

7.2

7.4

7.7

7.6

7.6

7.6

7.4

7.3

7.1

7.0

6.7

5.8

2-88

6.7

3-88

6.7

4-88

6.8

1-89

6.8

2-89

6.7
6.8

6.6

4.831.4
4.917.9
5*009.8
5*101.3
5*174.0

3-89

6.7

6.7

6.7

7.1

7.2

7.5

7.3

7.3

7.3

7.1

7.0

6.7

6.5

6.1

5.5

5.1

4-89

6.5

6.5

6.5

6.8

6.9

7.2

7.0

6.9

6.9

6.7

6.5

6.2

6.0

5.6

4.9

4.5

3.9

1-90

6.5

6.5

6.5

6.8

6.9

7.1

7.0

6.9

6.9

6.7

6.5

6.3

6.1

5.8

5.4

5.2

5.3

6.7

2-90

6.4

6.5

6.4

6.7

6.8

7.0

6.8

6.8

6.7

6.5

6.4

6.1

6.0

5.7

5.3

5.2

5.2

5.9

5.1

3-85

4-85

1-86

2-86

3-86

4-86

1-87

2-87

3-87

4-87

1-88

2-88

3-88

4—
88

1-89

2-89

3-89

4-89

1-90

5.238.6
5.289.3
5.375.4
5.443.3

IN IT IA L QUARTER

PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS
SEPTEMBER 25» 1990

G R O S S N A T I O N A L P R O D U C T I N 1982 D O L L A R S
( C o m p o u n d e d A n n u a l Rates of C h a n g e )
TERMINAL
QUARTER

IN IT IA L QUARTER
3-85

4-85

1-86

2-86

3-86

4-86

1-87

2-87

3-87

4-87

2-88

1-88

3-88

1-89

4-88

2-89

3-89

4-89

BILLIONS OF
DOLLARS
ANNUAL RATES
1-90
3.662.4

4-85

3.0

1-86

4.7

6.6

2-86

2.5

2.3

-1.8

3-86

2.1

1.8

-0.5

3.721.1
3.704.6
0.8

3.712.4

¿—
86

2.1

1.9

0.4

1.6

2.3

1-87

2.6

2.6

1.6

2.8

3.7

5.2

2-87

2.9

2.9

2.1

3.1

3.9

4.7

4.2

3-87

3.0

3.0

2.5

3.3

3.9

4.5

4.2

4.1

4-87

3.4

3.5

3.0

3.9

4.5

5.0

4.9

5.3

6.6

1-88

3.6

3.7

3.3

4.0

4.6

5.0

5.0

5.3

5.9

5.1

2-88

3.6

3.7

3.3

4.0

4.4

4.8

4.7

4.9

5.1

4.4

3.733.6
3*781.2
3*820.3
3*858.9
3*920.7
3*970.2
4*005.8

3.6

3-88

3.5

3.6

3.3

3.8

4.2

4.5

4.4

4.4

4.5

3.8

3.1

2.7

4-88

3.4

3.5

3.2

3.7

4.1

4.3

4.1

4.1

4.1

3.5

3.0

2.7

2.7

1-89

3.5

3.5

3.2

3.7

4.0

4.2

4.1

4.1

4.1

3.6

3.2

3.0

3.2

3.6

2-89

3.3

3.4

3.1

3.5

3.8

3.9

3.8

3.8

3.7

3.2

2.9

2.7

2.7

2.6

1.6

3-89

3.2

3.3

3.0

3.4

3.6

3.7

3.6

3.5

3.4

3.0

2.7

2.5

2.4

2.3

1.7

1.7

4-89

3.1

3.1

2.8

3.2

3.4

3.4

3.3

3.2

3.1

2.7

2.3

2.1

2.0

1.8

1.2

1.0

0.3

1-90

3.0

3.0

2.8

3.1

3.2

3.3

3.2

3.1

3.0

2.6

2.2

2.0

1.9

1.8

1.3

1.2

1.0

1.7

2-90

2.9

2.8

2.6

2.9

3.0

3.1

2.9

2.8

2.7

2.3

2.0

1.8

1.7

1.6

1.2

1.0

0.8

1.1

0.4

3-85

4-85

1-86

2-86

3-86

4-86

1-87

2-87

3-87

4-87

1-88

2-88

3-88

4-88

1-89

2-89

3-89

4-89

1-90




4*032.1
4*059.3
4*095.7
4*112.2
4.129.7
4.133.2
4*150.6
4*155.1

IN IT IA L QUARTER

P R E P A R E D B Y F E D E R A L R E S E R V E B A N K O F S T ♦ L O UIS
SEPT E M B E R 25» 1990

12

G R O S S
RATIO SCALE
T R I L L I O N S OF

N A T I O N A L

P R O D U C T

QUARTERLY TOTALS AT ANNUAL RATES
RATIO SCALE
DOLLARS
SEASONALLY ADJUSTED
T R I L L I O N S OF D O L L A R S
5.8
5.6
5.4
5.2
5.0
4.8
4.6
4.4
4.2
4.0
4.8
4.6
4.4
4.2
4.0
3.8
3.6
3.4
3.2
3.0

2

2

1982

1983

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

SOURCE: U .S . DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE
PERCENTAGES ARE ANNUAL RATES OF CHAN6E FOR PERIODS INDICATED.
LATEST DATA PLOTTED: 2N QUARTER
D




PREPARED

13

BY

FEDERAL

RESERVE

BANK

OF

ST.

L O UIS

. 8

. 6

G E N E R A L

RATIO

P R I C E

I N D E X *

SCALE

RATIO

SCALE

1982-100

1982

1982-100

1983

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

«AS USED IN NATIONAL INCOME ACCOUNTS
SOURCEt U.S. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE
PERCENTAGES ARE ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE FOR PERIODS INDICATED.
LATEST DATA PLOTTEDt 2ND QUARTER
PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS

IMPLICIT PRICE D E F L A T O R F O R G R O S S N A T I O N A L P R O D U C T
( C o m p o u n d e d A n n u a l Rates of C h a n g e )
TERMINAL
QUARTER

IN IT IA L QUARTER
3-85

4-85

1-86

2-86

3-86

4-86

1-87

2-87

3-87

4-87

1-88

1982 « 100
2-88

3-88

4-88

1-89

2-89

3-89

4-89

1-90
112.2

4—
85

3,3

1-86

2.0

0.7

2-86

2.3

1.8

112.4
2.9

113.2
114.6

3-86

3.0

2.9

4.0

5.0

4-86

2.7

2.6

3.2

3.4

1.8

1-87

2.9

2.8

3.3

3.4

2.6

3.5

2-87

2.9

2.8

3.3

3.4

2.8

3.3

3.1

3-87

3.0

2.9

3.3

3.4

3.0

3.4

3.3

4-87

2.8

2.8

3.1

1-88

2.8

2.8

3.0

2-88

3.0

2.9

3-88

3.1

3.1

3.3

4-88

3.2

3.2

3.5

1-89

3.3

3.3

3.5

2-89

3.3

3.3

3.5

3.6

3-89

3.3

3.3

3.5

3.6

4-89

3.3

3.3

3.5

3.6

1-90

3.4

3.4

3.6

3.7

2-90

3.5

3.5

3.7

3.7

3.6

3.8

3-85

4-85

1-86

2-86

3-86

4-86




3.2

3.1
3.0
3.2
3.4
3.5
3.6

2.7
2.7
3.0
3.2
3.3
3.4
3.4
3.4
3.5
3.6

115.1

3.0
2.9
3.2
3.4
3.5
3.6
3.6
3.6
3.6
3.7

116.1

2.8

117.0
118.0

3.5
2.6

118.5

1.7

119.3

2.2

2.7

3.1

2.9

3.6

4.4

3.4

3.4

4.0

4.6

4.7

3.6

4.1

4.6

4.7

4.7

3.7

4.1

4.4

4.4

4.3

3.9

3.7

3.7

4.1

4.3

4.3

4.2

3.9

3.9

3.6

3.7

3.9

4.1

4.1

3.9

3.7

3.6

3.2

3.7

3.7

3.9

4.1

4.0

3.9

3.7

3.7

3.5

3.8

3.8

4.0

4.2

4.2

4.1

3.9

3.9

3.9

4.3

4.8

3.8

3.8

3.9

4.1

4.2

4.2

4.2

4.1

4.1

4.1

4.4

4.7

4.7

1-87

2-87

3-87

4-87

1-88

2-88

3-88

4-88

1-89

2-89

3-89

4-89

1-90

2.8
3.1
3.4
3.5
3.6
3.6
3.6
3.6
3.7

2.6

3.6
3.7

120.6
122.0
123.4
124.6
125.8
126.8
128.0

3.8

129.5
131.0

INITIAL Q U ARTER

P R E P A R E D B Y F E D E R A L R E S E R V E B A N K O F ST. L O U I S
S E P T E M B E R 25* 1990

14

P E R S O N A L C O N S U M P T I O N E X P E N D I T U R E S IN C U R R E N T D O L L A R S
( C o m p o u n d e d A n n u a l Rates of C h a n g e )
TERMINAL
QUARTER
5-85
4-85

4-85

1-86

2-86

5-86

4-86

1-87

2-87

IN IT IA L QUARTER
ANNUAL RATES
5-87 4-87 1-88 2-88

6.0

5-88

4-88

1-89

2-89

B I L L I O N S OF
DOLLARS
5-89

4-89

1-90

2,700.4

1-86

5.6

5.1

2—
86

5.0

4.5

4.0

5-86

6.2

6.2

6.8

9.8

4-86

6.2

6.2

6.6

7.9

6.2

1-87

6.4

6.4

6.8

7.7

6.7

7.5

2-87

6.8

7.0

7.5

8.2

7.7

8.4

9.6

5-87

7.1

7.2

7.6

8.5

8 .0

8.6

9.5

8.9

6.8

7.0

7.5

7.1

7.5

7.4

6.2

4-87

6.7

2,754.5
2,761.0
2,826.0
2,868.5
2,919.5
2,987.2
5,051.6
5.7

5,079.1
5,147.7

1-88

6.9

7.0

7.5

7.8

7.5

7.7

7.8

7.2

6.4

9.2

2-88

7.0

7.1

7.5

7.7

7.4

7.7

7.7

7.5

6.7

8.5

7.4

7.2

7.4

7.8

7.5

7.7

7.8

7.5

7.1

8.5

7.8

8.2

7.5

7.8

7.6

7.8

7.9

7.6

7.5

8.2

7.9

8.2

5-88

7.1

4-88

7.2

7.5

5,204.5
5,268.2
8.1

5,552.6
5,571.7

1-89

7.0

7.1

7.2

7.5

7.5

7.4

7.5

7.2

6.9

7.5

7.1

7.0

6.4

4.8

2-89

7.0

7.0

7.2

7.5

7.5

7.4

7.4

7.1

6.8

7.4

7.0

6.9

6.5

5.7

6.6

5-89

7.0

7.0

7.2

7.4

7.2

7.5

7.5

7.1

6.9

7.5

7.0

6.9

6.6

6.1

6.8

7.0

5.8

5.5

4.0

6.4

6.4

6.0

4-89

6.8

1-90

6.9

6.8
6.9

7.0
7.0

7.2
7.2

7.0
7.1

7.0
7.1

7.0
7.1

6.8
6.9

6.5
6.7

6.9

6.8

7.0

6.1

6.4

6.6

5.6

6.4

6.7

6.1

5,425.9
5,484.5
5,518.5
5,588.1

8.2

6.7

6.7

6.8

7.0

6.8

6.9

6.9

6.6

6.4

6.7

6.4

6.5

6.1

5.7

5.9

5.7

5.5

6.0

5.9

5-85

4-85

1-86

2-86

5-86

4-86

1-87

2-87

5-87

4-87

1-88

2-88

5-88

4-88

1-89

2-89

5-89

4-89

1-90

2-90

5,622.7

IN IT IA L QUARTER

PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS
SEPTEMBER 25, 1990

P E R S O N A L C O N S U M P T I O N E X P E N D I T U R E S I N 1982 D O L L A R S
( C o m p o u n d e d A n n u a ) Rates of C h a n g e )
TERMINAL
QUARTER

5-85

4-85

5.0

1-86

2-86

5-86

4-86

1-87

2-87

5-88

4-88

1-89

2-89

5-89

4-89

1-90

1.9

1-86

4-85

BILLIO N S OF
DOLLARS

IN IT IA L QUARTER
ANNUAL RATES
5-87 4-87 1-88 2-88

2,586.9
4.1

2,410.9

2-86

5.2

5.8

5.6

5-86

5.7

4.4

4.5

5.4

4-86

5.4

5.8

5.7

5.8

2,452.4
2,464.4
2.2

2,477.8

1-87

5.0

5.2

5.0

2.7

1.4

0.7

2-87

5.2

5.4

5.5

5.2

2.5

2.6

2,482.2
2,509.9

4.5

5-87

5.5

5.5

5.4

5.4

2.9

5.2

4.4

4.5

4-87

2.9

5.0

2.9

2.8

2.5

2.5

2.8

1.9

-0.4

2,556.6
2,554.2

1-88

5.5

5.5

5.4

5.4

5.0

5.2

5.8

5.6

5.2

6.9

2-88

5.2

5.4

5.5

5.5

5.0

5.1

5.6

5.4

5.0

4.8

2.7

2,576.8
2,594.1

5-88

5.5

5.4

5.5

3.5

5.0

5.2

5.6

5.4

5.1

4.5

5.1

5.5

4-88

5.5

5.4

5.5

5.5

5.1

5.2

5.6

5.4

5.2

4.1

5.2

5.5

5.5

1-89

5.0

5.1

5.0

5.0

2.7

2.8

5.1

2.9

2.6

5.2

2.5

2.2

1.6

-0.5

2-89

2.9

5.0

2.9

2.8

2.6

2.7

2.9

2.7

2.4

2.9

2.1

2.0

1.5

0.5

1.5

5-89

5.0

5.1

5.0

5.0

2.8

2.8

5.0

2.9

2.7

5.1

2.5

2.5

2.5

1.8

2.9

4.6

4-89

2.8

2.8

2.8

2.7

2.5

2.5

2.7

2.5

2.5

2.6

2.0

1.9

1.6

1.2

1.7

1.9

-0.8

1-90

2.7

2.7

2.7

2.6

2.4

2.4

2.6

2.4

2.2

2.5

1.9

1.8

1.5

1.2

1.5

1.6

0.1

1.1

2-90

2.6

2.6

2.5

2.4

2.2

2.5

2.4

2.2

2.0

2.2

1.7

1.6

1.4

1.0

1.5

1.5

0.2

0.7

0.2

5-85

4-85

1-86

2-86

5-86

4-86

1-87

2-87

5-87

4-87

1-88

2-88

5-88

4-88

1-89

2-89

5-89

4-89

1-90




2,616.4
2,658.8
2,656.7
2,645.5
2,675.5
2,669.9
2,677.5
2,678.8

INITIAL Q U ARTER

P R E P A R E D B Y F E D E R A L R E S E R V E BAN K O F ST. L O U I S
S E P T E M B E R 25, 1990

15

G R O S S P R I V A T E D O M E S T I C I N V E S T M E N T DM C U R R E N T D O L L A R S
( C o m p o u n d e d A n n u a l Rates of C h a n g e )
TERMINAL
QUARTER
5-85

4-85

1-86

2-86

5-86

4-86

1-87

2-87

4-85

19.1

2-86

6.5
5.4

-1.5 -10.5

2.8

-0.8

-6.8

-2.5

5.5

2.8

-1.0

4.0

9.2

5.6

5.6

0.7

4.9

8.7

12.9

5.0

5.2

0.7

4.0

6.6

8.7

4.2

5-89

4-89

1-90

7.8

5-87

2-89

18.5

2-87

1-89

0.7

1-87

4-88

-5.7

4—
86

5-88

1.0 -14.7

5-86

BIL L I O N S OF
DOLLARS

18.7

1-86

IN IT IA L QUARTER
ANNUAL RATES
5-87 4-87 1-88 2-88

0.6

654.1
685.8

19.4

657.2
647.7
648.8
676.7
689.5
690.6
741.4

4-87

7.8

6.5

4.7

8.4

11.4

14.5

12.9

15.6

52.8

1-88

6.2

4.9

5.5

6.1

8.2

9.8

7.8

7.7

11.5

2-88

6.5

5.4

5.9

6.5

8.4

9.8

8.1

8.2

10.8

1.2

9.5

5-88

6.9

5.9

4.6

7.0

8.7

9.9

8.6

8.7

10.9

4.4

10.2

10.9

4-88

5.6

4.5

5.5

5.5

6.6

7.5

5.9

5.5

6.5

0.8

5.4

0.4

-9.1

1-89

6.0

5.1

4.0

5.9

7.1

7.9

6.7

6.5

7.5

5.0

5.6

4.5

1.1

12.4

2-89

5.9

5.0

4.0

5.7

6.8

7.5

6.5

6.1

6.9

5.1

5.2

4.1

1.9

8.0

5.7

5-89

5.5

4.7

5.7

5.2

6.2

6.7

5.6

5.4

6.0

2.6

4.2

5.2

1.5

5.1

1.6

-0.5

4-89

4.7

5.9

5.0

4.5

5.2

5.5

4.4

4.1

4.5

1.4

2.6

1.5

-0.5

2.0

-1.2

-5.6

-6.6

-6.4

729.2
746.0
765.6
747.5
769.7
776.7
775.8
762.7

0
1

4.0

5.2

2.2

5.5

4.2

4.4

5.4

5.0

5.2

0.5

1.2

0.1

-1.6

0.0

-2.9

-5.0

-7.2

-7.9

2-90

4.1

5.4

2.5

5.7

4.5

4.6

5.6

5.5

5.5

0.9

1.8

0.9

-0.5

1.0

-1.1

-2.5

-2.9

-1.0

6.5

5-85

4-85

1-86

2-86

5-86

4-86

1-87

2-87

5-87

4-87

1-88

2-88

5-88

4-88

1-89

2-89

5-89

4-89

1-90

747.2
759.0

IN IT IA L QUARTER

PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS
SEPTEMBER 25» 1990

G R O S S P R I V A T E D O M E S T I C I N V E S T M E N T I N 1982 D O L L A R S
( C o m p o u n d e d A n n u a l Rates of C h a n g e )
TERMINAL
QUARTER
5-85

4-85

1-86

2-86

5-86

4-86

1-87

2-87

IN IT IA L QUARTER
ANNUAL RATES
5-87 4-87 1-88 2-88

BILLIONS OF
DOLLARS
5-88

4-88

1-89

2-89

5-89

4-89

1-90
648.0

4-85

20.8

1-86

19.6

2-86
5-86
4-86

-0.4

1-87

2.8

-0.4

2-87

5.7

5-87

18.5

676.1

5.5

-1.8 -18.5

642.5

l.l

-4.7 -14.5 -10.5
-5.1 -11.8

625.1
615.2

-8.5

-6.2

-4.6

0.5

6.4

20.6

1.1

-2.0

2.6

7.5

14.8

9.2

5.8

1.6

-1.0

2.9

6.5

11.1

6.6

4.1

4-87

6.1

4.4

2.6

6.6

10.5

14.9

15.0

14.9

26.9

1-88

5 .0

5.4

1.6

4.9

7.7

10.7

8.5

8.0

10.1

-4.6

2-88

4.9

5.4

1.9

4.8

7.1

9.5

7.4

7.0

8.0

-0.4

5.9

5-88

5.4

4.1

2.7

5.4

7.5

9.7

7.9

7.7

8.6

5.1

7.2

4-88

5.7

2.4

1.1

5.5

4.9

6.4

4.5

5.7

5.6

-1.5

-0.4

644.7
659.1
665.7
706.6
698.4
705.1
10.5

725.0

-2.5 -14.0

696.2

1-89

4.5

5.2

2.0

4.1

5.6

7.0

5.5

4.9

5.1

1.2

2.7

2.5

-1.7

12.5

2-89

4.1

5.0

1.9

5.8

5.2

6.4

5.0

4.5

4.5

1.2

2.4

2.0

-0.7

6.7

717.0
719.1

1.2

5-89

4.0

2.9

1.9

5.7

4.9

6.0

4.7

4.2

4.2

1.5

2.5

1.9

-0.1

5.0

1.5

1.8

4-89

5.5

2.5

1.5

2.9

4.0

4.8

5.5

5.0

2.8

0.2

0.9

0.4

-1.5

1.9

-1.5

-2.8

-7.1

1-90

2.8

1.9

0.9

2.5

5.5

4.1

2.8

2.5

2.1

-0.4

0.2

-0.4

-2.1

0.5

-2.5

-5.4

-5.9

-4.7

2-90

2.7

1.8

0.8

2.2

5.1

5.8

2.6

2.1

1.9

-0.5

0.1

-0.5

-1.8

0.4

-1.8

-2.6

-4.0

-2.4

0.0

5-85

4-85

1-86

2-86

5-86

4-86

1-87

2-87

5-87

4-87

1-88

2-88

5-88

4-88

1-89

2-89

5-89

4-89

1-90




722 «5
709.1
700.7
700.7

INITIAL Q U A R T E R

P R E P A R E D B Y F E D E R A L R E S E R V E B A N K O F ST. LOUIS
SEP T E M B E R 25. 1990

16

G O V E R N M E N T P U R C H A S E S O F G O O D S A N D S E R V I C E S IN C U R R E N T D O L L A R S
( C o m p o u n d e d A n n u a l Rates of C h a n g e )
TERMINAL
QUARTER

3-85

4-85

2.4

1-86

2-86

3-86

4-86

1-87

2-87

3-88

4-88

1-89

2-89

BILLIONS OF
DOLLARS

3-89

4-89

1-90

8.1

1-86

4-85

IN IT IA L QUARTER
ANNUAL RATES
3-87 4-87 1-88 2-88

856.7
-3.0

850.3

2-86

4.6

3.0

9.2

3-86

4.8

3.7

7.2

5.2

4-86

4.6

3.8

6.1

4.6

4.0

1-87

5.0

4.4

6.4

5.4

5.6

7.2

2-87

4.7

4.2

5.6

4.8

4.6

5.0

869.3
880.3
888.9
904.5
2.8

910.7

3-87

5.1

4.7

6.0

5.4

5.5

6.0

5.4

8.1

4-87

5.2

4.9

6.0

5.5

5.6

6.0

5.6

7.0

5.9

1-88

4.6

4.3

5.2

4.6

4.5

4.7

4.0

4.4

2.7

-0.5

2-88

4.8

4.5

5.3

4.8

4.8

«.9

4.5

4.9

3.9

2.9

6.3

3-88

4.3

4.0

4.7

4.2

4.1

4.1

3.6

3.8

2.7

1.7

2.8

-0.7

4-88

5.5

5.3

6.1

5.8

5.8

6.1

5.9

6.4

6.1

6.2

8.5

9.6

20.8

928.5
942.0
940.9
955.4
953.8
1»000.0
1,008.5

1-89

5.4

5.1

5.9

5.5

5.6

5.8

5.6

6.0

5.7

5.6

7.2

7.5

11.8

3.4

2-89

5.4

5.2

5.8

5.6

5.6

5.8

5.6

6.0

5.7

5.6

6.9

7.0

9.7

4.6

5.8

3-89

5.2

5.0

5.6

5.3

5.3

5.4

5.2

5.5

5.1

5.1

6.1

6.0

7.8

3.7

3.9

2.0

4-89

5.2

5.0

5.6

5.4

5.4

5.5

5.3

5.6

5.3

^ .2

6.1

6.0

7.4

4.3

4.6

4.1

6.2

1-90

5.5

5.4

5.9

5.7

5.7

5.9

5.8

6.0

5.8

5.8

6.6

6.7

8.0

5.6

6.1

6.2

8.4

10.7

2-90

5.6

5.4

5.9

5.7

5.8

5.9

5.8

6.1

5.9

5.9

6.6

6.6

7.7

5.7

6.1

6.2

7.7

8.4

6.2

3-85

4-85

1-86

2-86

3-86

4-86

1-87

2-87

3-87

4-87

1-88

2-88

3-88

4-88

1-89

2-89

3-89

4-89

1-90

1.022.7
1»027.8
1.043.3
1.070.1
1*086.4

IN IT IA L QUARTER

PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS
SEPTEMBER 25» 1990

G O V E R N M E N T P U R C H A S E S O F G O O D S A N D S E R V I C E S I N 1982 D O L L A R S
( C o m p o u n d e d A n n u a l Rates of C h a n g e )
TERMINAL
QUARTER

3-85

4-85

1-86

2-86

3-86

4-86

4-85

-1.5
2.0

2.3

2.1

2.2

5.8

4-86

2.8

3.1

5.8

3.9

2.3

2.4

4.2

2.5

2.8

1.5

1.5

2.7

1.1

0.7

-1.7

2-89

3-89

4-89

1-90

-0.2

2-87

1-89

5.8

1-87

4-88

9.5

3-86

3-88

-4.5

2-86

2-87

BILLIO N S OF
DOLLARS

1.6

1-86

1-87

IN IT IA L QUARTER
ANNUAL RATES
3-87 4-87 1-88 2-88

752.7
744.1
761.2
2.1

765.2
776.0
775.7
-3.2

769.5

3-87

2.0

2.0

3.2

2.0

1.9

0.7

1.1

5.5

4-87

2.4

2.5

3.6

2.6

2.7

2.0

2.7

5.7

6.0

1-88

1.2

1.2

1.9

0.8

0.6

-0.4

-0.4

0.5

-1.9

-9.2

2-88

1.4

1.4

2.0

1.1

1.0

0.2

0.3

1.2

-0.2

-3.2

3.3

779.8
791.3
772.4
778.7

3-88

0.9

0.9

1.4

0.6

0.4

-0.4

-0.4

0.2

-1.1

-3.4

-0.3

-3.8

4-88

2.0

2.0

2.7

2.0

2.0

1.5

1.8

2.6

2.1

1.1

4.8

5.5

15.7

1-89

1.6

1.6

2.2

1.5

1.4

1.0

1.1

1.7

1.1

0.2

2.7

2.5

5.8

-3.3

2-89

1.8

1.8

2.3

1.7

1.7

1.3

1.4

2.0

1.5

0.8

3.0

2.9

5.2

0.3

4.0

771.2
799.9
793.2
801.0

3-89

1.5

1.5

2.0

1.4

1.3

0.9

1.0

1.5

1.0

0.4

2.0

1.8

3.2

-0.6

0.8

-2.4

4-89

1.6

1.6

2.0

1.5

1.5

1.1

1.2

1.7

1.3

0.7

2.2

2.0

3.2

0.3

1.5

0.3

1-90

1.7

1.7

2.1

1.6

1.6

1.2

1.4

1.8

1.4

0.9

2.3

2.1

3.1

0.8

1.9

1.2

3.0

2.9

2-90

1.9

1.9

2.3

1.9

1.9

1.6

1.7

2.1

1.9

1.4

2.7

2.6

3.6

1.7

2.7

2.4

4.0

4.5

6.2

3-85

4-85

1-86

2-86

3-86

4-86

1-87

2-87

3-87

4-87

1-88

2-88

3-88

4-88

1-89

2-89

3-89

4-89

1-90




796.2
3.0

802.2
807.9
820.2

INITIAL QUARTER

P R E P A R E D B Y F E D E R A L R E S E R V E BANK O F ST. L O U I S
S E P T E M B E R 25» 1990

17

D I S P O S A B L E P E R S O N A L I N C O M E IN C U R R E N T D O L L A R S
( C o m p o u n d e d A n n u a ) Rates of C h a n g e )
IN IT IA L QUARTER

terminal

QUARTER
4-85

1-86

8
.6
18 8
-6 .6
28 7.9
-6

5-86

4-86

1-87

2-87

5-87

4-87

1-88

2-88

6.5

5-88

4-88

1-89

2-89

5-89

4-89

1-90

8.5
7.5

2-86

B I L LI O N S OF
DOLL A R S
ANNUAL RATES

4-85

2*899.5
2,959.2
5*006.5

5-86

6.5

5.8

4.4

2.4

4-86

6
.2

5.7

4.7

5.8

1-87

6 .9

6 6 6
.6 .1 .0

7.8

10.4

2-87

5.6

5.1

4.5

4.0

4.5

4.1

-1.8

5-87

6.5

6
.0

5.6

5.4

6
.2

6.5

4.6

11.4

4-87

6.9

6.7

6.5

6.5

7.5

7.8

7.0

1.6
1

11.9

7.6

10.9

10.7

9.6

9.6

8.5

9.6

8.9

9.1

5*024.5
5.5

5*065.4
5*159.8
5*125.7

7.6

8
.2
8
.0

7.6

7.5

7.9

8.5

7.9

1.0
0
1.0
0

7.2

7.8

8
.1

7.8

9.4

18
-8
28
-8

7.2

7.0

6.9

6.9

7.7

7.2

7.1

6.9

7.0

5-88

7.4

7.5

7.2

4-88

7.4

7.5

7.2

5*211.1
5*502.5
5*578.6
7.4

5*459.4

8.4

8
.6
8
.0

8.5

9.7

5*520.1
6.9

5*578.9

1-89

7.5

7.4

7.4

7.4

8
.0

8.5

8
.0

9.5

9.1

8
.6

8.4

8.7

2-89

7.5

7.2

7.1

7.1

7.6

7.8

7.5

8
.8

8.4

7.8

7.5

7.5

5-89

7.1

7.0

6.9

7.0

7.4

7.6

7.5

8.5

8
.0

7.4

7.1

7.0

4-89

7.1

7.0

6.9

6.9

7.5

7.4

7.2

8
.1

7.8

7.5

6.9

6.9

1-90

7.2

7.1

7.1

7.1

7.4

7.6

7.4

8.5

7.9

7.5

7.5

7.5

6 4.5
.2
6 5.1
.2
6.5
6 6 6
.8 .8 .2

2-90

7.1

7.0

6.9

6.9

7.2

7.5

7.1

7.9

7.6

7.2

6.9

6
.8

6.4

6.4

5.7

5-85

4-85

5-86

4—
86

1-87

2-87

5-87

4-87

18 28
-8 -8

5-88

4-88

1-89

18 28
-6 - 6

8
.2
6
.8

9.6
6.7

5*661.7
5.9

6.5

5*697.5
5.1

5*745.4

5.6

6
.1

6.9

7.9

9.6

6
.2

6.5

6.7

4.0

5-89

4-89

1-90

2-89

5*799.6
5*887.7
5*925.7

IN IT IA L QUARTER

PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST, LOUIS
SEPTEMBER 25» 1990

D I S P O S A B L E P E R S O N A L I N C O M E I N 1982 D O L L A R S
( C o m p o u n d e d A n n u a ) Rates of C h a n g e )
TERMINAL
QUARTER

IN IT IA L QUARTER
5-85

4-85

18
-6
28
-6

4-85

18 28
-6 -6

5-86

4-86

1-87

2-87

5-87

5.9

18 28
-8 -8

4-87

4.4

5-88

4-88

1-89

2-89

5-89

4-89

BILLIONS OF
DOLLARS
ANNUAL RATES
1-90

2*562.8
7.4

2*609.2

5-86

6 6 6
.0 .8 .2
4.0
5.9
2
.2

-1.7

4-86

5.5

5.5

1.9

-0.2

1-87

5.5

5.5

2.5

2-87
5-87
4-87

18
-8
28
-8

2 1
.0 .6
2 2.4
.6

0.5
1.5

2*648.6

1
.1
-0.8

2*657.5
1.4

2*646.2

2.5

5.6

-0.6

-1.5

2*669.5
2*626.5

-6.5

0 1 1 0
.6 .2 .2 .0

6.7

2*669.2

5.1

5.0

2.4

1.7

2.4

2.7

2.4

7.1

7.5

5.5

5.4

5.0

2.5

5.2

5.6

5.6

7.1

7.4

7.5

6
.0

2*717.9
2*765.9

5.5

5.4

2.9

2.5

5.2

5.5

5.4

5.8

5.0

2.7

5-88

5.6

5.5

5.1

2
.8

5.4

5.7

5.7

5.6

4.9

5.8

4.9

4-88

5.5

5.4

5.0

2.7

5.2

5.5

5.5

4.9

4.5

5.5

5.6

2.5

1-89

5.5

5.5

5.1

2.9

5.5

5.6

5.6

4.8

4.5

5.5

5.8

5.5

2-89

5.2

5.1

5-89

5.2

4-89
1-90
2-90

2.5

2.9

5.1

5.0

4.5

5.9

5.5

5.1

2
.8
2
.8

2.5

2.9

5.1

5.0

4.1

5.8

5.2

5.1

5.0

2.7

2 .5

5.8

5.5

5.0

5.0

5.0

2.7

2.5

5.7

5.4

2.9

2.9

2
.8

2.5

2.5

5.4

5.1

2.7

2-87

5-87

4-87

5-85

4-85




18 28
-6 - 6

2
.8
2
.8
2
.6
5-86

2.9
2.9
2.7
4-86

2
.8
2
.8
2
.6
1-87

2*784.4
2*818.0
2*855.9
2*865.5

4.2

2 2.5 1.7 1.5 -1.2
.6
2 2 2 1.9 0 2.7
.6 .6 .0
.8
.0 .2
2.4
2.4
1 1.7 0.9 2 1
.8
2.4
2.4
2 1.9 1.5 2 1.9
.0
.2
2 2 1.7 1 1 1.7 1.5
.2 .1
.6 .1
18 28
-8 -8

5-88

4-88

1-89

2-89

5-89

2*854.9
2*874.5
2*885.2
2*900.9

2.5
1.4

0.5

4-89

2*902.8

1-90

INITIAL QUARTER

P R E P A R E D B Y F E D E R A L R E S E R V E B A N K O F ST. L O U I S
S E P T E M B E R 25. 1990

18

C O R P O R A T E PROFITS AFTER TAXES
( C o m p o u n d e d A n n u a ) Rates of C h a n g e )
T E R M INAL
QUA R TER
5-85
4-85

B I L L I O N S OF
DOLLARS
ANNUAL RATES

INITIAL Q U ARTER
4*85

1-««

2-86

«- 8 «

5-86

1-87

2-87

5-87

«-87

1-88

2-88

*-88

5-88

1-89

2-8 »

5-89

4 -8»

1-90

19.9

155.2

1-86

-2 5.6 - 5 1.4

2-86

-18.1 -52.4

- 5.9

5— 8 6

- 10.5 -18.6

5.4

4-86

-5.1 -10.5

112.9
111.2
115.9

18.0

9.7

18.4

18.8

1-87

2.9

-0.2

19.4

29.5

55.5

54.0

121.0

2-87

7.4

5.4

25.0

51.6

56.4

46.2

154.8
58.7

146.5
155.0

5-87

9.5

8.1

25.5

50.4

55.7

59.1

52.2

26.0

4-87

9.2

8.0

21.0

26.2

27.9

50.2

25.2

16.0

6.9

1-88

12.0

11.2

25.5

28.1

29.9

52.2

27.5

25.7

22.6

40.6

2-88

12.6

11.9

22.7

26.8

28.2

29.8

25.4

22.5

21.1

28.9

18.1

5-88

12.2

11.5

21.2

24.6

25.5

26.5

22.4

19.5

17.7

21.6

15.1

8.5

4-88

12.4

11.8

20.6

25.7

24.5

25.0

21.5

18.7

17.2

20.0

15.8

11.7

15.5

1-89

11.1

10.4

18.5

20.7

21.0

21.5

17.7

15.0

15.2

14.5

8.8

5.9

4.7

2-89

8.2

7.4

14.2

16.1

15.9

15.6

12.0

9.0

6.8

6.7

1.0

-2.9

157.6
171.6
178.9
182.5
189.1
-5.0

186.7

-6.5 -15.5 - 2 4 . 9

175.8
165.6

5-89

6.1

5.2

11.2

12.6

12.2

11.6

8.1

5.1

2.7

2.2

-5.1

-6.9 -10.4 -17.6 - 2 5 . 2 - 2 1 . 5

4-89

6.1

5.5

10.9

12.2

11.8

11.2

7.9

5.5

5.2

2.7

-1.8

-4.8

1-90

5.9

5.1

10.5

11.5

11.0

10.4

7.4

5.0

5.1

2.6

-1.5

-5.8

-5.7

-9.4 - 1 0 . 5

-5.1

4.5

1.9

2-90

5.4

4.7

9.5

10.6

10.1

9.5

6.6

4.5

2.5

2.1

-1.4

-5.6

-5.2

-8.5

-8.9

-4. 4

2.0

-0 . 2

-2.4

5-85

4-85

1-86

2-86

5-86

4-86

1-87

2-87

5-87

4-87

1-88

2-88

5-88

4-88

1-89

2-89

5-89

4-8 9

1-90

-7.2 -12.1 -1 4 . 5

-8.4

166.5

6.8

167.1
166.1

INITIAL QUARTER

P R E P A R E D B Y F E D E R A L R E S E R V E B A N K O F ST. L O U I S
S E P T E M B E R 25. 1990

H IS T O

N A T IO N A L

E s t i m
o

f

N

C

u r r e n t

t h e
B u

I P A

J u
s i n

B u

l y

S t a t e s .

e a l t h

D e p a r t m

s i n

f o

J u
e

e n t




f u

D
l y

r t h

o

N

f o

1 9 8 7 ,

e r

t a

t i s

i n f o r m
n

C o m

m

r
J u

l y

a

l

a t i o n

W

t h e

r e g

1 9 8 4 ,

1 9 8 8

e

O F

P R O D U C T

a t e s

In c o m

t i c

S O U R C E S

A C C O U N T S

u

l a r

p u b l i s h e d

1 9 8 3 ,

( B E - 5 4 ) ,
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i n
a r e

E s t i m

a t i o n a l

i v i s i o
f

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s e r i e s

c t i v e l y .

T h e

D

t h e

IN C O M E

1 9 8 7 - 9 0 :1 1

e s s .

r e s p
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r

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1 9 2 9 - 8 2 : ______ S

F o r
W

f o

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1 9 8 6 ,

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p u b l i s h e d

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1 9 8 5

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f o

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J u

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J u

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1 9 9 0

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P r o d u c t

p

l y

1 9 8 6

1 9 8 9

N I P A

D A T A

r

A c c o u n t s

t a t i o

S u r v e y

p u b l i s h e d
o

f

C

f

t h e

N

a t i o

o

f

i n

u r r e n t

1 9 2 9 - 8 2
o

n

U

a r e
n i t e d

T a b l e s .

a n d

p

B u r e a u

a s h i n g t o n ,

r i c e s ,
o f

D . C .

19

w

r i t e

E c o n o m

ic

2 0 2 3 0 .

t o
A

t h e
n

a l y s i s ,

U

n
. S .

a l

In c o m

e

INVENTORIES

COMPARED

WITH

MONTHLY

SALES

M AN UFACTURING AND TRADE
SEASONALLY ADJUSTED
7 2

7 2

6 8

6 8

6 4

6 4

1 .6 0

6 0

5 6

5 6

5 2

5 2

1.49
4 8

4 8

4 4

4 4

4 0

4 0

3 6

3 6
1 9 7 6

1 9 7 7

1 9 7 8

1 9 7 9

1 9 8 0

1 9 8 1

1 9 8 2

1 9 8 3

1 9 8 4

1 9 8 5

1 9 8 6

1 9 8 7

1 9 8 8

1 9 8 9

1 9 9 0

SOURCE: U.S.DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE
«BEGINNING IN 1982,

INVENTORY DATA REFLECT CHANGES IN ESTIMATION PROCEDURES.

SHADED AREAS REPRESENT PERIODS OF BUSINESS RECESSIONS.
LATEST DATA PLOTTED: JULY PRELIMINARY




PREPARED

20

BY

FEDERAL

RESERVE

BANK

OF

ST.

LOUIS


Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, One Federal Reserve Bank Plaza, St. Louis, MO 63102