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N

a t io n a l E c o n o m

ic

T r e n d s

N o vem b er 1990
T h e
a n d
in

p r ic e

o th e r

p r ic e s
a n d

p r ic e s

a n d

T h e

b e y o n d

th e

p a r is o n s
s h ip s

o f

is

o il

re a l

lo n g e r - r u n
o il

b e e n

b e c a u s e

p r ic e

th re e

P

s h o c k
a n d

in fla tio n

b y

O

P

in

p e r io d s

th e

e c o n o m ic

in

th e

k e y

o il

th e

p o u n d e d

a n d

o n

in

th e s e

a n d

r a t e s

8
P e r io d

I II/ 1973-111/1975
(6 5 .3 % )

1 /197 9 -1 1 /1 9 8 2
(3 7 .8 % )

IV / 1985-111/1987
( - 3 7 . 7 % )

V a r ia b le

D e fla t o r
R e a l

G N P

D e fla t o r
R e a l

G N P

D e fla t o r
R e a l

G N P

D u r in g

re a l

B e fo re

a n d

e ffe c ts

o il

to

fo r
o n

t h e ir

g r o w th

d u r in g

h o w e v e r,
s h o c k s

th e

o n

o u tp u t.

fo u r

T h e

1 9 8 5 -8 7

s h o w

n o

h a v e

a n y

s h o rt- ru n

w it h

th e

p e r io d .

c o n s is t e n t

e x ­

C o m ­

r e la tio n ­

lo n g e r - r u n

e ffe c ts ,

g ro w th .

G

N

P

G

r o w

t h

c h a n g e )

q u a rte rs

12
A fte r

q u a rte rs

B e fo r e

A fte r

5 .8 %

8
.6
0.0

p r ic e

q u a rte rs

6 .3 %

5 .8 %

6

4 .8

9 .5 %
- 0 .4

o n

in fla tio n

p ro d u c e r

e x te n d s

c o n s is t e n t

th e

in fla tio n

m o v e m e n ts

in flu e n c e s

e ffe c ts

in

a n d

U .S .

o th e r

p e r io d

g e n e r a lly

o n

s im ila r

im p a c t .

c h a n g e s

e a c h

p r ic e s
is

c a u s e

lo n g e r - r u n

c o n c e a l

p r ic e

re a l

R e a l
o f

P

c o n s e q u e n c e s

o v e r w h e lm

a n y

d r a m a t ic
d a te

p e r io d s ,
i f

th e y

h a v e

e p is o d e s

G N

its

b e lie v e d

m a y

o n

e n d in g

th e s e

T h u s ,

in fla tio n

a n n u a l

th e y

b a s e d

s h o rt- ru n

a fte r

C h a n g e s

P r e s u m a b ly ,

T h e

d u r in g

m e a s u re s .

a b o u t

w id e ly

in flu e n c e s

s h o c k s

la g g e d

a re

w h e th e r

e c o n o m ic

s lo w d o w n

b e fo re
th e s e

P r i c e

r u n .

a b o u t

d e fla to r

c o n c e r n

o il p r ic e s

s h o rt

p r ic e

s h o c k ’s

is

in

p a r e n th e s e s ).

in flu e n c e s

S h o c k s ,
( c o m

in

p r ic e

g r o w th

c h a n g e s

in

o f

(s h o w n

fo r

t r ig g e r in g

h o w e v e r,

o th e r

e x c e p t io n

o u tp u t

P r i c e

A u g u s t,

m o v e m e n ts

o u tp u t

im p lic it

s o le

a n d

o th e r

i l

a llo w

th e
a n d

re a l

p o w e r

G N

m o v e m e n ts

d o m in a te d

in

p r e v io u s

to

e a r ly

u n c e r ta in t y ,

c h a n g e s

a n d

th e

s h o c k s ;

s in c e

u n e x p e c te d

m o v e m e n ts

p ro d u c ts

p r ic e
G N

s h a r p ly

d r a m a t ic

c o n s id e r a b le

p e rh a p s

o f o il p r ic e

b e tw e e n
h a v e

o p p o s ite

r e la te d

a c tu a l

e ffe c ts

r is e n

S u c h

id e n tifie s

a n d

o f b o th

h a s

T h e r e

b e lo w

fu e ls

b e h a v io r
p e c te d

a n d

g r o w th ,

t a b le
fo r

o il

g ro w th .

o u tp u t.

o u tp u t

in d e x

th e y

o f c r u d e

r e a l e c o n o m ic

5 .2

4 .0

5 .0

.8 %

7 .7

3 .9

7 .2

3 .6

4 .8

4 .9

4 .3

4 .2

2 .9

3 .2

3 .7

3 .3

3 .8

3 .0

4 .3

3 .4

5 .0

2
.6

—

C o u r te n a y

T I I K
F E D

E R A L
R E S E K V K
R A N K

o f

S T . 1 1 )1

I S


V ie w s e x p re s s e d d o n o t n e cessarily re fle c t o ffic ia l p o sitio n s o f th e F ederal R eserve System .


C .

S to n e

T O T A L CIVILIAN E M P L O Y M E N T
( C o m p o u n d e d A n n u a l Rates of C h a n g e )
TERMINAL
MONTH

THOUSANDS
OF PER S O N S

INITIAL MON T H
2-89

5-89

4-89

5-89

6-89

7-89

8-89

9-89 10-89 11-89 12-89

1-90

2-90

5-90

4-90

5-90

6-90

7-90

8-90
117.047

5-89

5.0

4-89

1.7

0.4

5-49

1.5

0.4

0.5

4-89

2.0

1.7

2.4

4.5

117.084
117*152
117.542
117.456

7-89

1.4

1.0

1.2

1.6

-1.1

8-89

1.4

1.0

1.2

1.4

0.0

1.2

117.550
117.419

9-89

1.0

0.6

0.7

0.7

- 0.4

-0.1

-1.5

10-89

1.1

0.8

0.9

0.9

0.1

0.5

0.2

1.7

11-89

1.2

1.0

1.1

1.2

0.6

1.0

1.0

2.1

2.6

12-89

1.2

1.0

1.0

1.1

0.6

0.9

0.9

1.6

1.6

117.585
117.856
117.888

0.5

117.865

1-90

1.0

0.8

0.9

0.9

0*5

0.7

0.6

l.l

0.9

0.1

-0.5

2-90

1.1

0.9

1.8

1.0

0,6

0.9

0.8

1.5

1.2

0.7

0.8

1.8

118.055
118.554

S-9t

1.2

1.1

1.2

1.2

0.9

1.1

1.1

1.6

1.5

1.5

1.5

2.4

5.1

4-90

1.8

0.8

0.9

0.9

0.6

0.8

0.7

1.0

0.9

0.6

0.6

0.9

0.4

-2.2

5-90

1.1

1.0

1.0

1.0

0.8

0.9

0.9

1.2

l.l

0.9

0.9

1.2

1.1

0.1

118.116
118.550

2.4

6-90

1.0

0.9

1.0

1.0

0.7

0.9

0.9

1.1

1.0

0.8

0.9

1.1

0.9

0.2

1.4

0.4

7-90

0.7

0.6

0.6

0.6

0.5

0.4

0.4

0.5

0.4

0.1

0.1

0.2

-0.2

-1.0

- 0.6

- 2.0

-4. 5

8-90

0.5

0.4

0.4

0.4

0.1

0.2

0.1

0.2

0.1

-0.2

-0.5

-0.5

-0. 6

-1.4

- 1.2

-2.5

-5.6

-5.0

9-90

0.6

0.5

0.5

0.5

0.2

0.5

0.5

0.4

0.5

0.1

0.0

0.0

-0.2

-0.7

-0. 4

-1.1

-1.6

-0.5

2.5

2-89

5-89

4-89

5-89

6-89

7-89

8-89

9-89 10-89 11-89 12-89

1-90

2-90

5-90

4-90

5-90

6-90

7-90

8 -90

118*589
117.955
117.658
117.898

INITIAL M O NTH

P R E P A R E D B Y F E D E R A L R E S E R V E B A N K O F ST. L O U I S
O C T O BER 5* 1990

PAYROLL E M P L O Y M E N T
( C o m p o u n d e d A n n u a l Rates of C h a n g e )
TERMINAL
MONTH

2-89

5-89

1.9

4-89

5-89

6-89

7-89

8 -89

INITIAL M O N T H
OF P E R S O N S
9-89 10-89 11-89 12-89

T H O U SANDS
1-90

2-90

5-90

4-90

5-90

6-90

7-90

8-90

1.8

4-89

5-89

107.811
2.0

107.988

5-89

1.8

1.8

1.6

6-69

2.0

2.1

2.1

2.6

7-89

1.9

1.9

1.9

2.0

1.4

8-89

1.8

1.8

1.8

1.8

1.5

1.5

9-89

2.0

2.0

2.0

2.0

1.9

2.1

1 08.155
108,544
108,490
108.428
2.7

108,868

10-89

1.9

1.9

1.8

1.9

1.7

1.8

2.0

1.2

11-89

2.0

2.0

2.0

2.1

2.0

2.1

2.5

2.1

5.0

108.980
109*245

12-89

1.9

1.9

1.9

2.0

1.9

2.0

2.1

1.9

2.2

1.5

1-90

2.0

2.1

2.1

2.1

2.0

2.2

2.5

2.2

2.5

2.5

5.0

2-90

2.1

2.2

2.2

2.5

2.2

2.5

2.5

2.4

2.7

2.6

5.2

5.4

5-90

2.1

2.1

2.2

2.2

2.2

2.5

2.4

2.5

2 .5

2.4

2.7

2.6

109*585
109*654
109,958
1.8

110*122

4-90

2.0

2.0

2.0

2.1

2.0

2.1

2.1

2.1

2.2

2.1

2 .2

1.9

1.2

0.6

5-90

2.2

2.2

2.2

2.5

2.5

2.4

2.4

2.4

2.6

2.5

2 .7

2.7

2.4

2.7

4 .9

6-90

2.2

2.2

2.5

2.5

2.5

2.4

2.4

2.4

2.6

2.5

2.7

2.6

2.4

2.6

5.6

2 .5

7-90

2.0

2.0

2.0

2.1

2.0

2.1

2.1

2.1

2.2

2.1

2.1

2 .0

1.7

1.7

2.1

0.7

-1.0

8-90

1.9

1.9

1.8

1.9

1.8

1.8

1.9

1.8

1.8

1.7

1.8

1.6

1.5

1.2

1.5

0.1

- 0.9

-0.9

9-90

1.7

1.7

1.7

1.7

1.6

1.6

1.6

1.6

1.6

1.4

1.4

1.2

0.9

0.8

0.8

-0.2

-1.0

-1.0

-l.l

2-89

5-89

4-89

5-89

6-89

7-89

8 -8 9

9-89 10-89 11-89 12-89

1-90

2-90

5-90

4-90

5-90

6-90

7-90

8-90

110*177
110*617
110*829
110*740
110*657P
110»556P

I NIT I A L M O N T H
P- PRELIMINARY




P R E P A R E D B Y F E D E R A L R E S E R V E B A N K O F ST. L O UIS
O C T O B E R 5, 1990

2




EMPLOYMENT
RATIO

SCALE

MILLIONS

OF

RATIO
PERSONS

SEASONALLY

MILLIONS

ADJUSTED

SO U RCEt

OF

U .S .D E P A R T M E N T

SCALE

PERSONS

OF LABO R

B E G IN N IN G JA N U A R Y 1 9 8 « . TOTAL EM PLO YM ENT OATA IN C O R PO R A T E N E » P R O C E D U R E S FOR E S T IM A T IN G
M E A S U R E S OF IM M IG R A T IO N AND E M IG R A T IO N IN C R E A S IN G TOTAL EM PLOYM EN T B Y ABOUT 0 . 3 Z .
P E R C E N T A G E S A R E ANNUAL R A T E S OF CHANGE FO R P E R IO D S
LATEST

DATA PLO T T ED »

SEPT EM BER

IN D IC A T E D .

P R E L IM IN A R Y
P R EPA R ED

BY

FED ERA L

RESER VE

BANK OF S T .

L O U IS

U N E M P L O Y M E N T R AT E
PERCENT

SEASONALLY

PERCENT

ADJUSTED

1 0 .0

1 0 .

9.

9.0

8 .

8 .0

7.

7.0

6 .

6 .0

5.

5.0

4.

1982

1983

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988
SO U RCEt

P E R C EN T
LATEST

OF C I V I L I A N
DATA PLO T TED «

LABO R

U .S .

1989
DEPARTM EN T

1990
OF LABO R

FO R C E

SEPT EM BER

PREPARED BY F E D E R A L R ES E R V E BANK OF S T . L O U I S

3

4.0

C O N S U M E R PRICE I N D E X F O R A L L U R B A N C O N S U M E R S
( C o m p o u n d e d A n n u a l Rates o f C h a n g e )
TERMINAL
MONTH

INITIAL MONTH
2-89

5-89

7.1

4-89

5-89

6-89

7-89

8-89

9-89 10-89 11-89 12-89

1982-84*100
1-90

2-90

5-90

4-90

5-90

6-90

7-90

8-90
122.5

6.1

4-89

5-89

125.5

8.1

125.8

5-89

6.4

6.5

5.0

6-89

5.5

5.5

4.0

2.9

7-89

5.2

5.0

4.0

5.4

5.9

8-89

4.5

4.0

2.9

2.5

1.9

0.0

9-89

4.1

5.8

2.9

2.4

2.5

1.5

2.9

10-89

4.5

4.1

5.4

5.1

3.2

2.9

4.4

11-89

4.5

4.1

5.5

5.5

5.5

5.2

4.9

5.9

12-89

4.5

4.2

5.7

5.5

5.6

5.5

4.9

4.4

7.1

7.5

9.4

14.1

6.9

7.1

8.2

9.9

5.8

6.7

6.8

7.6

8.5

5.8

124.1
124.5

1-90

5.2

5.1

4.8

4.8

5.0

5.2

2-90

5.5

5.2

4.9

4.9

5.1

5.5

5-90

5.5

5.2

5.0

5.0

5.2

124.5

5.5

6.2

124.8
125.4

5.9

125.8
126.5

4.9

127.7
128.5
128.9

5.8

129.1

4-90

5.0

5.0

4.7

4.7

4.9

5.0

5.6

6.0

6.0

6.4

6.8

4.5

5.8

1.9

5-90

4.8

4.7

4.5

4.4

4.6

4.6

5.2

5.5

5.4

5.6

5.8

5.8

5.2

1.9

1.9

6-90

4.9

4.9

4.6

4.6

4.8

4.8

5.:

5.6

5.6

5.8

5.9

4.4

4.0

5.5

4.5

6.7

7-90

4.9

4.9

4.6

4.6

4.8

4.8

5.3

5.5

5.5

5.7

5.8

4.4

4.2

5.8

4.4

5.7

8-90

5.2

5.1

4.9

4.9

5.1

5.2

5.6

5.9

5.9

6.1

6.2

5.2

5.1

4.9

5.7

7.0

7.1

9.6

9-90

5.4

5.4

5.2

5.2

5.4

5.5

5.9

6.2

6.2

6.4

6.6

5.7

5.7

5.7

6.4

7.6

7.9

9.6

9.5

2-89

5-89

4-89

5-89

6-89

7-89

8-89

9-89 10-89 11-89 12-89

1-90

2-90

5-90

4-90

5-90

6-90

7-90

8-90

129.5
150.0
4.7

150.5
151.5
152.5

INITIAL MONTH

P R E P A R E D BY FED E R A L RES E R V E B A N K O F ST. L O U I S
O C TOBER 18. 1990

P R O D U C E R PRICE INDEX, FINISHED G O O D S
( C o m p o u n d e d A n n u a l Rates of C h a n g e )
TERMINAL
MONTH

INITIAL M ONTH
2-89

5-89

4-89

5-89

6-89

7-89

5-89

6.6

7.7

5-89

7.5

8.5

5.7

5.8

4.9

5.7

5.2

1.8

-1.6

2.5

1.9

0.5

-2.1

-5.6

5-90

4-90

5-90

6-90

7-90

8-9 0

-4.1

8-89

2-90

l.l

7-89

1982 « 100
1-90

8.8

6-89

9-89 10-89 11-89 12-89

5.5

4-89

8-89

112.4

-5.1

115.1
115.9
114.0
115.6
115.5

9-89

5.4

5.0

2.1

0.5

0.4

2.7

8.8

10-89

5.8

5.5

2.8

1.7

1.9

5.9

7.6

6.5

11-89

5.5

5.2

2.6

1.6

1.7

5.2

5.4

5.7

114.1
114.7
1.1

114.8

12-89

5.9

5.7

5.2

2.4

2.6

4.1

5.9

5.0

4.5

7.6

1-90

5.7

5.7

5.5

5.0

5.6

7.5

9.6

9.8

10.9

16.1

25.4

2-90

5.2

5.2

4.9

4.5

4.9

6.5

7.9

7.7

8.1

10.5

12.0

0.0

5-90

4.6

4.5

4.5

5.8

4.1

5.2

6.4

6.0

6.0

7.2

7.1

-1.0

- 2. 0

115.5
117.7
117.7
117.5

4-90

4.1

4.0

5.7

5.5

5.5

4.4

5.5

4.9

4.6

5.5

4.7

-1.4

-2.0

- 2.0

5-90

5.9

5.8

5.5

5.1

5.5

4.0

4.9

4.4

4.1

4.6

4.0

- 0.8

-1.0

-0.5

1.0

6-90

5.8

5.7

5.4

5.0

5.2

5.8

4.6

4.1

5.8

4.2

5.7

-0. 2

-0.5

0.5

1.5

117.5
117.4
117.6

2.1

7-90

5.5

5.4

5.1

2.7

2.8

5.4

4.1

5.6

5.5

5.5

5.0

- 0.5

-0.4

0.0

0.7

0.5

- 1.0

8-90

4.2

4.1

5.9

5.6

5.7

4.4

5.0

4.7

4.5

4.9

4.6

1.9

2.2

5.1

4.4

5.6

7.4

16.4

9-90

5.0

5.0

4.8

4.6

4.8

5.5

6.2

6.0

5.9

6.4

6.5

4.1

4.7

5.9

7.5

9.2

11.7

18.7

20.9

2-89

5-89

4-89

5-89

6-89

7-89

8-89

9-89 10-89 11-89 12-89

1-90

2-90

5-90

4 -90

5-90

6-90

7-90

8 -90




117.5
119.0
120.9

INITIAL M O N T H

P R E P A R E D B Y F E D E R A L R E S E R V E B A N K O F ST. LOU I S
O C TOBER 12. 1990

4




P R I C E S

RATIO SCALE
1982-100

SEASONALLY ADJUSTED

RATIO SCALE
1982-100
145

135

125

1 15

150

140

130

120

1 10

100

90

80
CONSUMER PR IC E S OATA ARE ON A I9S2-S4-I00 BASE
CPI-U DATA BEGINNING I9B3 INCORPORATE A RENTAL EQUIVALENCE MEASURE FOR HOMEOVNERSHIP COSTS.
PERCENTAGES ARE ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE FOR PERIODS INDICATED.
LATEST DATA PLOTTED* SEPTEMBER

PREPARED BY FEOERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS

RATIO SCALE

PRODUCER

1982-100

SEA SO N A LLY

PR IC ES
A D JU S T E D

RATIO SCALE
1982-100

PERCENTAGES ARE ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE FOR PERIODS INDICATED.
LATEST DATA PLOTTED: SEPTEMBER

LOUIS

5

P R O D U C E R PRICE INDEX, FINISHED C O N S U M E R F O O D S
( C o m p o u n d e d A n n u a l Rates of C h a n g e )
T ERMINAL

INITIAL M O N T H
2-89

3-89

4-89

5-89

6-89

7-89

8-89

9-89 10-89 11-89 12-89

1982 * 100
1-90

2-90

3-90

4 -90

5-90

6-90

7-90

8 -90

7.4

118.6

4-89

0.5

-5.9

118.0

5-89

2.4

0.0

3-89

6.3

118.6
117.9

6-89

0.0

-2.3

-0.5

-6.9

7-89

0.4

-1.3

0.3

-2.5

2.1

118.1
118.5

1.0

-0.2

1.3

-0.3

3.1

4.1

9-89

0.5

-0.8

0.2

-1.3

0.7

0.0

10-89

2.3

1.6

2.9

2.2

4.7

5.5

6.2

17.5

6.8

7.6

14.0

10.5
9.9

3.2

2.7

12-89

3.8

3.4

1-90

4.0

5.9

W
1
O

8-89

6.3

6.2

7.5

7.6

9.6

3-90

5.3

5.1

6.2

6.2

7.8

4-90

4.1

3.9

4.7

4.6

5.8

5-90

4.1

3.9

4.7

4.6

5.7

4.2

4.0

5.0
4.6

11-89

6-90

3.7

4.0

118.1

-4.0

119.7
120.7

5.8

4.6

4.4

6.4

7.3

8.1

12.4

7.3

3.5

3.6

7.4

9.6

11.0

12.4

16.9

16.7

19.9

31.4

10.7

11.8

15.3

14.7

16.1

19.7

8.5

9.1

11.5

10.3

10.3

10.6

1.5

6.3

6.5

8.1

6.6

5.9

5.0

-2.5

6.0

6.2

7.6

6.2

5.5

4.8

-1. 0

-4.1

-3. 3

4.0

5.3

5.4

6.5

5.2

4.4

3.7

-1.2

-3.5

-2.9

1.0

-1.9

5.8

4.6

3.9

3.1

- 1.0

-2.8

-2.1

0.6

-1. 0

121.6

9.3

124.4
9.0

125.3
-5.6

124.7

-7.9 -10.1

123.6
124.0
123.8
0.0

3.5

3.3

3.9

3.7

4.8

4.9

8-90

3.9

3.7

4.3

4.2

5.0

5.2

5.3

6.2

5.1

4.6

4.0

0.6

-0.8

0.2

2.9

2.6

4.9

10.1

124.8

3.1

2.8

3.4

3.2

3.9

4.1

4.0

4.7

3.7

3.0

2.3

-0.8

-2.2

-1.6

0.2

-0.7

-0.3

-0.5 -10.1

123.7

2-89

3-89

4-89

5-89

6-89

7-89

8-89

2-90

3-90

4-90

5-90

6-90

7-90

9-90

9-89 10-89 11-89 12-89

0
*
1

7-90

123.8

8-90

INITIAL M O N T H

P R E P A R E D BY F E D E R A L R E S E R V E B A N K OF ST. L O U I S
OCTO B E R 12. 1990

P R O D U C E R PRICE INDEX, FINISHED G O O D S , E X C L U D I N G F O O D S
( C o m p o u n d e d A u a a l Rates of C h a n g e )
T ERMINAL
M ONTH

INITIAL M O N T H
2-89

3-89

4-89

5-89

6-89

3-89

7.9
9.0

11.4

7.5

8.6

7.2

4.6

4.7

2.5

-1.6

2.7

2.4

0.3

-3.2

-6.2

3-90

4-90

5-90

6-90

7-90

•-90

-6.2

8-89

2-90

3.3

7-89

1982 • 100
1-90

11.3

6-89

9-89 10-89 11-89 12-89

11.4

5-*9

8-89

4.5

4-89

7-89

110.4
111.4
112.4
112.7
112.1
-6.2

111.5

9-89

4.4

4.4

3.0

1.1

0.4

3.8

14.9

10-89

4.3

4.2

3.1

1.5

1.1

3.6

8.9

3.2

11-89

3.5

3.4

2.3

0.9

0.4

2.2

5.1

0.5

-2.1

12-89

3.8

3.8

2.8

1.7

1.4

3.0

5.5

2.5

2.1

6.6

1-90

5.6

5.7

5.1

4.3

4.5

6.3

9.1

7.6

9.1

15.2

24. 6

2-90

4.7

4.8

4.1

3.3

3.3

4.8

6.7

5.2

5.7

8.4

9.3

112.8
113.1
112.9
113.5
115.6
-4.1

115.2

3-90

4.4

4.3

3.7

3.0

3.0

4.2

5.8

4.3

4.5

6.2

6.1

-2.1

0.0

4-90

4.0

4.0

3.4

2.7

2.7

3.7

5.0

3.7

3.7

5.0

4.6

-1. 4

0.0

0.0

5-90

3.8

3.8

3.2

2.6

2.5

3.4

4.6

3.3

3.4

4.3

3.8

-0. 8

0.3

0.5

1.0

6-90

3.8

3.8

3.2

2.6

2.6

3.4

4.4

3.3

3.3

4.1

3.7

0.0

1.0

1.4

2.1

3.2

115.2
115.2
115.3
115 . 6

7-90

3.4

3.4

2.S

2.3

2.2

2.9

3.8

2.8

2.7

3.3

2.9

- 0.3

0.4

0.5

0.7

0.5

-2.1

8-90

4.3

4.2

3.8

3.3

3.3

4.1

5.0

4.2

4.3

5.0

4 .8

2.2

3.3

4.0

5.0

6.4

8.0

19.2

9-90

5.6

5.7

5.3

5.0

5.1

5.9

6.9

6.3

6.6

7.5

7.6

5.6

7.1

8.3

10.1

12.5

15.7

25.8

32.8

2-89

3-89

4-89

5-89

6-89

7-89

8-89

9-89 10-89 11-89 12-89

1-90

2-90

3-90

4-90

5-90

6-90

7-90

8-90




115.4
117.1
119.9

INITIAL M O N T H

P R E P A R E D B Y F E D E R A L R E S E R V E B A N K O F ST. L O U I S
O C T O B E R 12» 1990

6

N D U S T R I
RATIO

A L

P R O D U C T I O N
RATIO

SCALE

1987-100

PERC EN T A G ES
LA T EST

A R E ANNUAL

DATA P LO T T E D «

R A T E S OF CHANGE FOR P E R IO D S

SCALE

1937-100

SEASONALLY ADJUSTED

IN D IC A T E D .

SEPTEM BER
PREPA RED

BY FED ER A L

RESERV E

BANK

OF S T .

L O U IS

INDUSTRIAL PR O D U C T I O N
( C o m p o u n d e d A n n u a l Rates of C h a n g e )
TERMINAL
MONTH

1987 « 100

INITIAL M O N T H
5-89

4-89

5-89

6-89

7-89

8-8 9

9-89 10-89 11-89 12-89

1-90

2-90

5-90

0
<v
r
1

2-89

5-90

6-90

7-90

8-90
107.7

5-89

1.1

«-89

5.7

10.5

5-89

2.6

5.4

-5.5

6-89

2.2

2.6

-1.1

1.1

7-89

0.4

0.5

-2.9

-2.7

-6.4

8-89

1.1

1.1

-1.1

-0.4

-1.1

108.6
108.5
108.4
107.8
4.5

108.2

9-89

1.0

0.9

-0.9

-0.5

-0.7

2.2

0.0

10-89

0.1

0.0

-1.7

-1.5

-1.9

-0.4

-2.7

-5.4

11-89

0.6

0.6

-0.8

-0.4

-0.7

0.8

-0.4

-0.6

4.5

12-89

1.1

1.1

0.0

0.5

0.4

1.8

1.1

1.5

5.1

1-90

-0.1

-0.2

-1.5

-1.1

-1.4

-0.6

-1.5

-1.9

-0. 7

2-90

0.8

0.8

-0.1

0.2

0.1

1.1

0.6

0.7

2.2

1.5

-0.6

11.8

5-90

1.1

1.1

0.5

0.7

0.6

1.5

1.1

1.5

2.7

2.2

1.1

8.1

4.5

4-90

1.0

0.9

0.2

0.5

0.4

1.2

0.8

1.0

2.1

1.6

0.6

4.9

1.7

-1.1

5-90

1.5

1.4

0.7

1.0

1.0

1.8

1.5

1.7

2.7

2.4

1.8

5.4

5.4

2.8

6.8

6-90

1.7

1.8

1.2

1.5

1.6

2.5

2.1

2.5

5.4

5.2

2.8

5.9

4.5

4.5

7.4

8.0

7-90

1.8

1.8

1.5

1.6

1.6

2.5

2.1

2.5

5.2

5.1

2.7

5.5

4.0

5.9

5.6

5.0

2.2

8-90

1.7

1.8

1.2

1.5

1.6

2.2

2.0

2.2

5.0

2.8

2.5

4.7

5.5

5.5

4.5

5.7

1.6

1.1

9-90

1.8

1.8

1.4

1.7

1.7

2.5

2.1

2.5

5.0

2.9

2.6

4.5

5.5

5.5

4.2

5.6

2.2

2.2

5.5

2-89

5-89

4-89

5-89

6-89

7-89

8-89

9-89 10-89 11-89 12-89

1-90

2-90

5-90

4-90

5-90

6-90

7-90

8-90

108.2
107.7
108.1
108.6

5.7

107.5

-5.5 -11.5

108.5
108.9
108.8
109.4
110.1
110.5
110.4P
110.7P

INITIAL M O N T H
P- PRELIMINARY




P R E P A R E D B Y F E D E R A L R E S E R V E BANK OF ST. LOUIS
O C T O B E R 1?» 1990

7

P E R S O N A L
RATIO

SCALE

TRILLIONS

I N C O M E

MONTHLY TOTALS AT ANNUAL RATES

OF

DOLLARS

SEASONALLY ADJUSTED

RATIO
TRILLIONS

OF

SCALE

DOLLARS

3.

3.8

3.

3.4

3.

3.0

2 .

2 .6

1982

1983

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988

SO U R C E t
PERC EN TA G ES
LATEST

A R E ANNUAL R A T E S

DATA P LO T T E D »

OF CHANGE FOR P E R IO D S

SEPT EM BER

U .S .

1989
DEPARTM EN T

1990
OF COMMERCE

IN D IC A T E D .

P R E L IM IN A R Y
PREPA RED

BY F E D E R A L

RESERVE

BANK OF

ST.

L O U IS

PERSONAL INCOME
( C o m p o u n d e d A n n u a l Rates of C h a n g e )
TERMINAL
MONTH
2-89

3-89

4-89

5-89

6-89

7-89

8-89

INITIAL M O N T H
ANNUAL RAT E S
9-89 10-89 11-89 12-89

1-90

2-90

B I L L I O N S OF
DOLLARS
3-90

4-90

5-90

6-90

7-90

8-90
4.342.2

3-89

11.7

4-89

8.2

4.8

5-89

5.2

2.0

-0.7

6— 89

5.0

2.8

1.8

4.4

4.359.3
4.356.8
4.372.5

7-89

5.4

3.9

3.6

5.8

7.3

8-89

4.5

3.2

2.7

3.9

3.6

4.398.2
4,398.7

0.1

4.411.6

9-89

4.4

3.2

2.9

3.8

3.6

1.8

3.6

10-89

4.9

3.9

3.8

4.7

4.8

3.9

5.9

8.3

11-89

5.2

4.4

4.4

5.3

5.4

5.0

6.6

8.2

8.1

12-89

5.4

4.8

4.8

5.6

5.8

5.5

6.8

7.9

7.8

7.4

1-90

5.8

5.3

5.3

6.1

6.3

6.2

7.4

8.4

8.5

8.6

4.441.0
4.470.0
4,496.7
9.9

4,532.2

2-90

6.0

5.5

5.6

6.3

6.6

6.5

7.5

8.4

8.4

8.5

9.0

8.1

3-90

6.3

5.8

5.9

6.6

6.8

6.8

7.8

8.5

8.5

8.6

9.0

8.6

9.1

4-90

6.0

5.6

5.6

6.2

6.4

6.3

7.1

7.6

7.5

7.4

7.4

6.5

5.8

2.6

5-90

5.9

5.5

5.5

6.1

6.2

6.1

6.8

7.2

7.1

6.9

6.8

6.0

5.3

3.5

4.5

6-90

5.8

5.5

5.5

6.0

6.1

6.0

6.6

7.0

6.8

6.6

6.5

5.8

5.3

4.1

4.8

5.1

4, 561.6
4,594.7
4.604.5
4.621.4

7-90

5.9

5.5

5.5

6.0

6.1

6.0

6.6

6.9

6.7

6.6

6.4

5.9

5.4

4.5

5.2

5.6

6.0

8-90

5.7

5.3

5.3

5.8

5.9

5.8

6.2

6.5

6.3

6.1

5.9

5.4

4.9

4.1

4.5

4.5

4.2

2.6

9-90

5.7

5.4

5.4

5.8

5.9

5.8

6.2

6.5

6.3

6.1

6.0

5.5

5.1

4.5

4.9

in
o

4.640.7

4.9

4.4

6.3

2-89

3-89

4-89

5-89

6-89

7-89

8-89

9-89 10-89 11-89 12-89

1-90

2-90

3-90

4-90

5-90

6-90

7-90

8-9 0

4,663.2
4,673.0
4,696.8P

INITIAL M O N T H
P- P RELIMINARY




P R E P A R E D B Y F E D E R A L RESE R V E B A N K O F ST. L O UIS
OCTOBER 31. 1990

8

RETAIL SALES
RATIO

SCALE

RATIO

B IL L IO N S OF DOLLARS

1982

1983

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988

SO U R C E*
P E R C E N T A G E S A R E ANNUAL R A T E S

OF CHANGE FO R P E R IO D S

LATEST

SEPTEM BER

DATA P L O T T E D :

A U G U ST ,

SCALE

B IL L IO N S OF DOLLARS

SEASONALLY ADJUSTED

U .S .

1989
DEPA R T M EN T

1990
OF COMMERCE

IN D IC A T E D .

ADVANCE E S T IM A T E
PREPA RED

BY FE D E R A L

R ESERVE

BANK

OF S T .

L O U IS

3-90

4-90

5-90

6-90

RETAIL SALES
( C o m p o u n d e d A n n u a l Rates of C h a n g e )
TERMINAL
MONTH
2-89

3-89

«-89

5-89

6-89

7-89

8-89

INITIAL M O N T H
DOLLARS
9-89 10-89 11-89 12-89

M ILLIONS OF
1-90

2-90

7-90

8-90
141*214

3-89

0.3

4-89

11.«

23.7

5-89

10.1

15.«

7.6

6-89

6.6

8.8

2.0

- 3.«

7-89

6.9

8.6

«.0

2.3

8.3

8-89

8.0

9.6

6.«

6.0

11.0

13.7

9-89

7.2

8.«

5.6

5.1

8.1

8.0

10-89

«.3

«.9

2.1

1.0

2.2

0.2

-5.9 -13.8

11-89

«.9

5.5

3.1

2.«

3.6

2.4

-1.1

-2.9

12-89

3.9

«.«

2.2

1.«

2.2

1.1

-1 . 9

-3.4

2.3

-4. 3

1-90

6.7

7.«

5.7

5.5

6.8

6.6

5.2

5.9

13.4

15.4

39.2

143*744
144*626
144*210
145*170
146*731
2.7

147*052
145*244
9.4

146*340
145*804
149*877
149*904

2-90

6.2

6.7

5.2

«.9

6.0

5.7

4.4

4.7

9.9

10.1

18.1

0.2

3-90

5.3

5.7

«.2

3.9

«.7

4.3

3.0

3.1

6.8

6.2

9.9

-2.3

-4. 7

«-90

«.1

«.«

2.9

2.5

3.1

2.5

1.2

1.0

3.7

2.6

4.3

-5.2

- 7.8 - 10 . 8

5-90

3.7

«.0

2.6

2.2

2.7

2.2

1.0

0.7

3.0

2.0

3.3

- 4.1

-5. 5

-6.0

-0.8

6— 90

«.<

«.6

3.«

3.1

3.6

3.2

2.2

2.2

4.4

3.6

5.0

-0.7

- 0.9

0.3

6.4

14.3

7-90

«.5

«.7

3.6

3.3

3.8

3.5

2.6

2.6

4.6

4.0

5.2

0.4

0.5

1.8

6.4

10.2

6.4

8-90

«.0

«.2

3.1

2.8

3.2

2.8

2.0

1.9

3.6

3.0

4.0

-0.3

- 0.3

0.5

3.6

5.1

0.9

-4. 4

9-90

«.«

«.7

3.7

3.«

3.9

3.6

2.8

2.8

4.5

4.0

5.0

1.4

1.5

2.6

5.5

7.2

4.9

4.2

13.6

2-89

3-89

«-89

5-89

6-89

7-89

8-89

9-89 10-89 11-89 12-89

1-90

2-90

3-90

4-90

5-90

6-90

7-90

8-90

149*302
147*886
147*781
149*432
150*201
149.643P
1 5 1 »242E

INITIAL M O NTH
P- P R E L I MINARY
E- ESTIM A T E D




P R E P A R E D B Y F E D E R A L R E S E R V E B ANK O F ST. LOUIS
OC T O B E R 12» 1990

H O U R L Y COMPENSATION, BUSINESS S ECTOR
( C o m p o u n d e d A n n u a ) Rates of C h a n g e )
TERMINAL
QUARTER

INITIAL Q U A R T E R
3-85

4-85

1-86

2-86

3-86

4-86

1-87

2-87

3-87

4-87

1-88

I982®100
2-88

3-88

4-88

1-89

2-89

3-89

4-89

1-90
115.3

4-85

6.1

1-86

5.7

5.3

2-86

5.3

4.9

4.5

116.8
118.1
119.4

3-86

5.1

4.8

4 .5

4.5

4-86

5.1

4.9

4.7

4.8

5.1

1-87

4.7

4.4

4.2

4.1

3.9

2.7

2-87

4.3

4.0

3.7

3.5

3.1

2.2

120.9
121.7
1.7

122.2
123.5

3-87

4.3

4.0

3.8

3.6

3.4

2.9

3.0

4.3

4-87

4.6

4.4

4.2

4.2

4.1

3.9

4.3

5*6

7.0

125.6

1-88

4.5

4.4

4.2

4.2

4.1

4.0

4.3

5.2

5.6

4.2

2-88

4.6

4.5

4.4

4.4

4.3

4.2

4.5

5.2

5.5

4.8

5.5

126.9

3-88

4.7

4.5

4.5

4.5

4.5

4.4

4.7

5.3

5.5

5.0

5.4

5.4

4-88

4.6

4.5

4.4

4.4

4.4

4.3

4.5

5.0

5.1

4.7

4.9

4.6

128.6
130.3
3.7

131.5

1-89

4.4

4.3

4.2

4.2

4.2

4.1

4.2

4.6

4.6

4.2

4.2

3.7

2.9

2.1

2-89

4.3

4.2

4.1

4.0

4.0

3.9

4.0

4.3

4.3

3.9

3.8

3.4

2.8

2.3

2.4

3-89

4.1

4.0

3.9

3.8

3.8

3.6

3.7

4.0

3.9

3.5

3.4

3.0

2.4

1.9

1.8

1.2

4-89

4.0

3.9

3.8

3.7

3.7

3.6

3.6

3.8

3.8

3.4

3.3

2.9

2.4

2.1

2.1

2.0

2.7

1-90

4.0

3.9

3.8

3.7

3.7

3.6

3.6

3.8

3.8

3.4

3.3

3.0

2.6

2.4

2.5

2.5

3.2

3.6

2-90

4.1

4.0

3.9

3.9

3.8

3.7

3.8

4.0

4. 0

3.7

3.6

3.4

3.1

3.0

3.2

3.4

4.1

4.8

6.0

3-85

4-85

1-86

2-86

3-86

4-86

1-87

2-87

3-87

4-87

1-88

2-88

3-88

4-88

1-89

2-89

3-89

4-89

1-90

132.2
133.Q
133.4
134.3
135.5
137.5

I N I TIAL QUARTER

PR E P A R E D B Y FEDE R A L R E S E R V E B A N K O F ST. L O U I S
SEPT E M B E R 4. 1990

O U T P U T PER H O U R O F ALL PERSONS, BUSINESS SECTOR
( C o m p o u n d e d A n n u a l Rates of C h a n g e )
TERMINAL
QUARTER

INITIAL QUA R T E R
3-85

4-85

1-86

2-86

3-86

4-85

4.3
2.5

3.0

3-86

1.5

1.5

-1.3

1.3

1.3

-0.6

-0.4

3-87

4-87

1-88

1982*100
2-88

3-88

4-88

1-89

2-89

3-89

4-89

1-90

-1.5

4-86

2-87

7.2

2-86

1-87

1.5

1-86

4-86

0.7

108.1
110.0
-1.1

109.7
109.3
109.5

1-87

1.2

1.1

-0.4

-0.1

0.5

0.4

2-87

1.5

1.5

0.4

0.7

1.5

1.8

109.6
3.3

110.5

3-87

1.7

1.7

0.8

1.2

1.8

2.2

3.1

2.9

4-87

1.8

1.8

1.0

1.4

2.0

2.3

2.9

2.7

2.5

1-88

2.0

2.0

1.4

1.8

2.3

2.6

3.2

3.1

3.3

4.0

2-88

1.7

1.7

l.l

1.4

1.8

2.0

2.3

2.1

1.8

1.4

-1.1

111.3
112.0
113.1
112.8

3-88

1.8

1.8

1.3

1.5

1.9

2.1

2.4

2.2

2.0

1.8

0.7

2.5

4-88

1.5

1.5

1.0

1.2

1.5

1.6

1.8

1.6

1.3

1.0

0.0

0.5

-1.4

1-89

1.5

1.5

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.5

1.7

1.4

1.2

0.9

0.2

0.6

-0.4

113.5
113.1
0.7

113.3

2-89

1.4

1.4

0.9

l.l

1.3

1.4

1.5

1.3

1.0

0.8

0.1

0.4

-0. 2

0.4

0.0

3-89

1.2

l.l

0.7

0.9

1.1

1.1

1.2

0.9

0.7

0.4

-0.2

0.0

- 0.6

-0.4

-0 . 9

-1.8

113.3
112.8

4-89

1.0

1.0

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.8

0.9

0.6

0.4

0.1

-0. 4

- 0.3

-0.8

-0.7

-1. 2

- 1.8

-1.8

1-90

0.9

0.8

0.4

0.5

0.7

0.7

0.7

0.5

0.2

0.0

-0. 5

-0.5

-0.9

-0.8

-1.2

-1.6

-1. 6

-1. 4

2-90

0.9

0.9

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.7

0.8

0.5

0.3

0.1

-0. 3

-0.2

-0.6

-0.5

-0 . 7

-0.9

-0.6

0.0

1.4

3-85

4-85

1-86

2-86

3-86

4-86

1-87

2-87

3-87

4-87

1-88

2-88

3-88

4-88

1-89

2-89

3-89

4- 8 9

1-90




112.3
111.9
112.3

INITIAL Q U ARTER

PR E P A R E D B Y F E D E R A L R E S E R V E B A N K O F ST. L O U I S
SEPT E M B E R 4» 1990

10

P R O D U C TIVITY,
RATIO

COMPENSATION,

AND

LABOR

SCALE

1982-100

1982

COSTS
RATIO

SEA SO N A LLY

1983

1984

1985

A D JU S T E D

1986

SCALE
1982-100

1987

1988

1989

1990

SOURCE* » . S . DEPARTMENT OF LABOR
PERCENTA6E8 ARE ANNUAL RATES OF CHANCE FOR PERIODS INDICATED.
LATEST DATA PLOTTED* 2ND OUARTER
PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK Of ST. LOUfS

UNIT L A B O R COSTS, BUSINESS S E C T O R
( C o m p o u n d e d A n n u a l Rates of C h a n g e )
T E R M I NAL
Q U A R T ER

INITIAL O U A RTER
5-85

4-85

1-86

2-86

5-86

4-86

1-87

2-87

5-87

4-87

1-88

1982* 1 0 0
2-88

5-88

4-88

1-89

2-89

5-89

4-89

1-90
1 06 . 7

4-85

5.0

1-86

1.5

2-86

2.8

1.7

5.4

5-86

5.6

5.1

5.7

4-86

5.8

5.5

5.5

5.5

4.5

1-87

5.5

5.2

4.5

4.2

5.5

2.2

106.2

-1.9

107.6
109.2

6.1

110.4
111.0

2-87

2.8

2.4

5.5

2.8

1.7

0.4

-1.4

5-87

2.6

2.5

5.0

2.5

1.6

0.7

0.0

1.5

110.6

4-87

2.8

2.5

5.1

2.8

2.1

1.5

1.5

2.7

4.0

111.0
112.1

1-88

2.5

2.5

2.8

2.4

1.8

1.5

1.1

1.9

2.2

0.4

2-88

2.9

2.7

5.2

2.9

2.5

2.2

2.2

5.1

5.6

5.4

6.6

5-88

2.9

2.7

5.2

2.9

2.5

2.5

2.5

5.0

5.4

5.2

4.7

2.8

4-88

5.1

2.9

5.4

5.2

2.8

2.6

2.7

5.4

5.8

5.7

4.9

4.1

5.5

112.2
114.0
114.8
116.5

1-89

5.0

2.8

5.2

5.0

2.7

2.5

2.5

5.1

5.4

5.5

4.0

5.2

5.5

1.4

2-89

2.9

2.8

5.1

2.9

2.7

2.5

2.5

5.0

5.5

5.1

5.7

5.0

5.0

1.9

2.4

5-89

2.9

2.8

5.1

2.9

2.7

2.5

2.5

5.0

5.2

5.1

5.5

2.9

5.0

2.2

2 .6

4-89

5.0

2.9

5.2

5.1

2.8

2.7

2.8

5.2

5.4

5.5

5.7

5.2

5.5

2.8

5.5

5.8

4.8

1-90

5.1

5.0

5.5

5.2

5.0

2.9

2.9

5.4

5.5

5.5

5.9

5.5

5.6

5.5

5.8

4 .2

5 .0

5.1

2-90

5.2

5.1

5.4

5.5

5.1

5.0

5.1

5.4

5.6

5.6

5.9

5.6

5.7

5.5

5.9

4.5

4.8

4.7

4.4

5-85

4-85

1-86

2-86

5-86

4-86

1-87

2-87

5-87

4-87

1-88

2-88

5-88

4-88

1-89

2 -89

5-89

4-89

1-90




116.7
117.4
2.8

118.2
119.6
121.1
122.4

INITIAL QUARTER

P R E P A R E D B Y F E D E R A L R E S E R V E B A N K OF ST. L O U I S
S E P T E M B E R 4. 1990

11

G R O S S N A T I O N A L P R O D U C T IN C U R R E N T D O L L A R S
( C o m p o u n d e d A n n u a l Rates of C h a n g e )
TERMINAL
Qu a r t e r

B I L L I O N S OF
DOL L A R S

INITIAL Q U A R T E R
4— 8 5

1-86

2-86

5-86

4-86

1-87

1—86

4.5
4.7

5.5

4.6

5.7

5.0

1-87

5.5

5.0

6.5

6.6

5.8

5.5

6.6

6.9

8.5

2-88

5-88

4-88

1-89

2-89

5-89

4-8 9

1-90

2-90

annual rates

9.1

2-87

1-88

5.7

4-86

4-87

1.5

5-86

5-87

7.5

2-86

2-87

7.5

4*181.5
4,194.7
4*255.5
4.2

4*297.5
4*591.6
4*4 7 1 . 6

5-87

6.0

5.8

6.8

7.0

8.0

7.4

7.4

4-87

6.4

6.2

7.1

7.4

8.2

7.8

8.0

8.7

1-88

6.5

6.4

7.2

7.4

8.1

7.8

8.0

8.5

7.8

2-88

6.7

6.6

7.5

7.6

8.1

7.9

8.0

8.5

8.1

8.5

5-88

6.8

6.7

7.5

7.5

8.0

7.8

7.9

8.0

7.8

7.8

7.4

4-88

6.8

6.8

7.4

7.5

8.0

7.8

7.9

8.0

7.8

7.8

7.5

7.7

4*551.7
4*647.6
4*755.8
4*851.4
4*917.9
5*0 0 9 . 8

1-89

6.9

6.9

7.4

7.5

7.9

7.8

7.8

7.9

7.7

7.7

7.5

7.6

7.5

2-89

6.8

6.8

7.2

7.4

7.7

7.6

7.6

7.6

7.4

7.5

7.1

7.0

6.7

5.8

5-89

6.7

6.7

7.1

7.2

7.5

7.5

7.5

7.5

7.1

7.0

6.7

6.5

6.1

5.5

5.1

4-89

6.5

6.5

6.8

6.9

7.2

7.0

6.9

6.9

6.7

6.5

6.2

6.0

5.6

4.9

4.5

5.9

5 *101.5
5 * 174.0
5*258.6
5 * 289.5

1-90

6.5

6.5

6.8

6.9

7.1

7.0

6.9

6.9

6.7

6.5

6.5

6.1

5.8

5.4

5.2

5.5

6.7

2-90

6.5

6.4

6.7

6.8

7.0

6.8

6.8

6.7

6.5

6.4

6.1

6.0

5.7

5.5

5.2

5.2

5.9

5.1

5-90

6.4

6.5

6.6

6.7

6.9

6.7

6.7

6.6

6.4

6.5

6.1

5.9

5.6

5.5

5.2

5.5

5.7

5.2

5.5

4-85

1-86

2-86

5-86

4-86

1-87

2-87

5-87

4-87

1-88

2-88

5-88

4-88

1-89

2-89

5-89

4-89

1-90

2-90

5*575.4
5 *445.5
5 * 5 1 4 . 4E

I NITIAL QUA R T E R
E- EST I M A T E D
P R E P A R E D B Y F E D E R A L R E S E R V E B A N K O F ST. L O U I S
O C T O B E R 50» 1990

G R O S S N A T I O N A L P R O D U C T I N 1982 D O L L A R S
( C o m p o u n d e d A n n u a l Rates of C h a n g e )
TERMINAL
QUARTER

4-85

1-86

2-86

5-86

4-86

1-87

1-86

2.5
1.8

-0. 5

1.9

0.4

1.6

2.6

1.6

2.8

5.7

2.9

2.1

5.1

5.9

4.7

5-89

4-89

1-90

2-90

5.2

2-87

2-89

2.5

1-87

1-89

0.8

4— 8 6

4-88

-1.8

5-86

5-87

B I L L I O N S OF
DOL L A R S

6.6

2-86

2-87

INITIAL Q U A R T E R
ANNUAL RATES
4-87 1-88 2-88 5-88

4.2

5*721.1
5 ,704.6
5,712.4
5*755.6
5*781.2
5 *820.5

5-87

5.0

2.5

5.5

5.9

4.5

4.2

4.1

4-87

5.5

5.0

5.9

4.5

5.0

4.9

5.5

6.6

1-88

5.7

5.5

4.0

4.6

5.0

5.0

5.5

5.9

5.1

2-88

5.7

5.5

4.0

4.4

4.8

4.7

4.9

5.1

4.4

5.6

5-88

5.6

5.5

5.8

4.2

4.5

4.4

4.4

4.5

5.8

5.1

2.7

4-88

5.5

5.2

5.7

4.1

4.5

4.1

4.1

4.1

5.5

5.0

2.7

5 *858.9
5*920.7
5*970.2
4 * 005.8
4*052.1
4*059.5

2.7

1-89

5.5

5.2

5.7

4 .0

4.2

4.1

4.1

4.1

5.6

5.2

5.0

5.2

5.6

2-89

5.4

5.1

5.5

5.8

5.9

5.8

5.8

5.7

5.2

2.9

2.7

2.7

2.6

1.6

4 * 095.7
4 * 112.2

5-89

5.5

5.0

5.4

5.6

5.7

5.6

5.5

5.4

5.0

2.7

2.5

2.4

2.5

1.7

1.7

4-89

5.1

2.8

5.2

5.4

5.4

5.5

5.2

5.1

2.7

2.5

2.1

2.0

1.8

1.2

1.0

0.5

1-90

5.0

2.8

5.1

5.2

5.5

5.2

5.1

5.0

2.6

2.2

2.0

1.9

1.8

1.5

1.2

1.0

1.7

2-90

2.8

2.6

2.9

5.0

5.1

2.9

2.8

2.7

2.5

2.0

1.8

1.7

1.6

1.2

1.0

0.8

l.l

0.4

5-90

2.8

2.6

2.8

5.0

5.0

2.9

2.8

2.6

2.5

2.0

1.8

1.7

1.6

1.5

1.2

1.1

1.5

1.1

1.8

4-85

1-86

2-86

5-86

4-86

1-87

2-87

5-87

4-87

1-88

2-88

5-88

4 -88

1-89

2 -89

5-89

4-89

1-90

2-90

4 , 129.7
4 * 155.2
4 * 1 50.6
4*155.1
4 * 1 7 5 . 6E

INITIAL Q U A R T E R
E- ESTIMATED




P R E P A R E D B Y F E D E R A L RES E R V E B A N K O F ST. L O U I S
O C T O B E R 50* 1990

12

G R O S S
R A T I O

S C A L E

TRILLIONS OF

N A T I O N A L

P R O D U C T

Q U A R T E R L Y T O T A L S AT A N N U A L R A T E S
TRIL LI ON S
DOLLARS
SEASONALLY ADJUSTED

R A T I O

S C A L E

OF DOLLARS

2
0
8

4.6
4.4
4.2
0

3.
3.

3.2

3
2

0

.

2

. 8

6

2

1982

1983

1984

1985

1986

1987
SOURCE:

PERCENTAGES ARE ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE FOR PERIODS
LA TE ST DATA PLOTTED:




1988
U .S .

1989

1990

DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE

INDICATED.

3RD QUARTER ADVANCE ESTIMATE
PREPARED

13

BY

FEDERAL

RES E R V E

BANK

OF

ST.

LOUIS

G E N E R A L
RATIO

P R I C E

I N D E X *

SCALE

RATIO

SCALE

1982-100

1982-100

1982
«A S

U SED

1983
IN

N A TIO N A L

PERC EN TA G ES
LA TEST

1984

1985

1986

1987

INCOME ACCOUNTS

AR E ANNUAL R A T E S OF CHANGE FOR P E R IO D S

DATA P LO T TED »

1988

SO U R C E*

U .S .

1989
D EPARTM EN T

1990
OF COMMERCE

IN D IC A T E D .

3RD Q UARTER ADVANCE E S T IM A T E
P REPA RED

BY F E D E R A L

RESERVE

BANK OF S T .

L O U IS

IMPLICIT PRICE D E F L A T O R F O R G R O S S N A T I O N A L P R O D U C T
( C o m p o u n d e d A n n u a ) Rates of C h a n g e )
TERMINAL
Q U ARTER

INITIAL Q U A R T E R
4-85

1-86

2-86

3-86

4-86

1-87

2-87

3-87

4-87

1-88

2-88

1982 * 100
3-88

4-88

1-89

2-89

3-89

4-89

1-90

2-90
112.4

1-86

0.7

2-86

1.8

2.9

3-86

2.9

4.0

5.0

4— 86

2.6

3.2

3.4

1.8

1-87

2.8

3.3

3.4

2.6

3.5

2-87

2.8

3.3

3.4

2.8

3.3

3.1

3-87

2.9

3.3

3.4

3.0

3.4

3.3

3.5

4-87

2.8

3.1

3.1

2.7

3.0

2.8

2.6

1.7

1-88

2.8

3.0

3.0

2.7

2.9

2.8

2.6

2.2

2.7

2-88

2.9

3.2

3.2

3.0

3.2

3.1

3.1

2.9

3.6

4.4

3-88

3.1

3.3

3.4

3.2

3.4

3.4

3.4

3.4

4.0

4.6

4.7

4-88

3.2

3.5

3.5

3.3

3.5

3.5

3.6

3.6

4.1

4.6

4.7

4.7

1-89

3.3

3.5

3.6

3.4

3.6

3.6

3.7

3.7

4.1

4.4

4.4

4.3

3.9

2-89

3.3

3.5

3.6

3.4

3.6

3.6

3.7

3.7

4.1

4.3

4.3

4.2

3.9

3.9

3-89

3.3

3.5

3.6

3.4

S .è

3.6

3.6

3.7

3.9

4.1

4.1

3.9

3.7

3.6

3.2

4-89

3.3

3.5

3.6

3.5

3.6

3.6

3.7

3.7

3.9

4.1

4.0

3.9

3.7

3.7

3.5

3.8

1-90

3.4

3.6

3.7

3.6

3.7

3.7

3.8

3.8

4.0

4.2

4.2

4.1

3.9

3.9

3.9

4.3

4.8

2-90

3.5

3.7

3.7

3.6

3.8

3.8

3.8

3.9

4.1

4.2

4.2

4.2

4.1

4.1

4.1

4.4

4.7

4.7

3-90

3.5

3.7

3.7

3.6

3.7

3.8

3.8

3.8

4.0

4.2

4.1

4.1

4.0

4.0

4.0

4.2

4.3

4.1

3.4

4-85

1-86

2-86

3-86

4-86

1-87

2-87

3-87

4-87

1-88

2-88

3-88

4-88

1-89

2-89

3-89

4-89

1-90

2-90

113.2
114.6
115.1
116.1
117.0
118.0
118.5
119.3
120.6
122.0
123.4
124.6
125.8
126.8
128.0
129.5
131.0
1 3 2 . IE

INITIAL QUAR T E R
E- E S T I M A T E D




P R E P A R E D BY F E D E R A L R E S E R V E BAN K OF ST. L O U I S

14

P E R S O N A L C O N S U M P T I O N EXPENDITURES IN C U R R E N T D O L L A R S
( C o m p o u n d e d A n n u a l Rates of C h a n g e )
TERMINAL
QUA R TER
4-85

1-86

2-86

3-86

4-86

1-87

2-87

3-8?

INITIAL Q U A RTER
ANNUAL RATES
4-87 1-88 2-88 3-88

4-88

1-89

BILLIONS OF
DOLLARS
4-89

3-89

2-89

1-90

2-90
2^ 734.3

1-86

5.1

2-86

4 JS

4.0

3-86

6.2

6.8

9.8

4—8 6

6.2

6.6

7.9

2,7 6 1 . 0
2,826.0
2. 868.5

6.2

2,919.5

1-87

6.4

6.8

7.7

6.7

7.3

2-87

7.0

7.3

8.2

7,7

8.4

9.6

3-87

7.2

7.6

8.3

8.0

8.6

9.3

8.9

4-87

6.8

7.0

7.5

7.1

7.3

7.4

6.2

3.7

1-88

7.0

7,3

7.8

7,5

7.7

7.8

7.2

6.4

2-88

7.1

7.3

7.7

7.4

7.7

7.7

7.3

6.7

8.3

7.4

3-88

7.2

7.4

7.8

7.5

7,7

7.8

7,5

7,1

8. 3

7.8

8.2

4-88

7.3

7.5

7.8

7.6

7,8

7.9

7.6

7.3

8.2

7.9

8.2

2. 987.2
3,051.6

3,079.1
3, 147.7

9.2

3,204.3
3.248,2
3,3 3 2 . 6

8.1

3,371.7

1-89

7.1

7.2

7,5

7.3

7.4

7.5

7.2

6.9

7.5

7.1

7.0

6.4

4.8

2-89

7.0

7.2

7,5

7.3

7.4

7.4

7.1

6.8

7.4

7.0

6.9

6.5

5.7

6.6

3-89

7.0

7.2

7.4

7.2

7.3

7.3

7.1

6.9

7.3

7.0

6.9

6.6

6.1

6.8

7.0

4-89

6.8

7.0

7.2

7,0

7.0

7.0

6.S

6.5

6,9

6.6

6.4

6.1

5,6

5.8

5.5

3,425.9
3,484.3

3,518.5

4.0

3,588.1

1-90

6.9

7.0

7.2

7.1

7.1

7.1

6.9

6.7

7.0

6.8

6.7

6.4

6.1

4 .4

4,4

6.0

8.2

2-90

6.7

6.8

7.0

6.8

6.9

6.9

6.6

6.4

6.7

6.4

6.3

6.1

5.7

5.9

5.7

5.3

6.0

3.9

3-90

«.9

7.0

7.1

7.0

7.8

7.0

6.8

6.6

6.9

6.7

6.6

6.4

6.2

6.4

6.4

4.2

7.0

6.4

8.9

4-85

1-86

2-86

3-86

4-86

1-87

2-87

3-87

4-87

1-88

2-88

3—8 8

4-88

1-89

2 -89

3-89

4-89

1-90

2-90

3,622.7
3 . 7 00.6E

INITIAL QUAR T E R
E- ESTIMATED
PR E P A R E D B Y F E D E R A L R E S E R V E B A N K O F ST. L O U I S
O C T O B E R SO, 1990

P E R S O N A L C O N S U M P T I O N E X P E N D I T U R E S I N 1982 D O L L A R S
( C o m p o u n d e d A n n u a l Rates of Cfcaige)
TERM INAL
QU ARTER
4-85

1-86

2-86

3-86

4-86

1-87

2-87

3-87

INITIAL Q U ARTER
ANNUAL RATES
4-87 1-88 2-88 3-88

4-88

1-89

BILLIONS OF
DOLLARS
2-89

4-8 9

3-89

1-90

2-90
2, 4 1 0 . 9

1-86

4.1

2-86

3,8

3.6

3-86

4,4

4.5

5.4

4-86

3.8

3,7

3.8

2,4 3 2 . 4
2,4 6 4 . 4
2, 4 7 7 . 8

2.2

1-87

3.2

3.0

2,7

1.4

0.7

2-87

3,4

3.3

3.2

2.5

2.6

4.5

3-87

3,5

3,4

3.4

2, 9

3.2

4.4

4,3

4-87

3.0

2.9

2.8

2,3

2,3

2,8

1.9

-0.4

1-88

3,5

3.4

3.4

3,0

3.2

3.8

3.6

3.2

6.9

2,482.2
2,509.9
2,536.6
2,534.2
2,576.8

2-88

3.4

3.3

3.3

3,0

3,1

3.6

3.4

3,0

4.8

2.7

3-88

3.4

3.3

3.3

3.0

3.2

3.6

3,4

3.1

4.3

3.1

3,5

4-88

3.4

3.3

3.3

3.1

3.2

3.6

3,4

3.2

4.1

3.2

3,5

3.5

1-89

3.1

3.0

3.0

2.7

2.8

3.1

2.9

2.6

3.2

2.3

2.2

1.6

-0.3

2-89

3,0

2.9

2,8

2.6

2.7

2.9

2,7

2.4

2.9

2.1

2.0

1,5

0.5

1,3

3-89

3,1

3.0

3.0

2.8

2.8

3.0

2,9

2.7

3.1

2.5

2.5

2.3

1.8

2, 9

4.6

4-89

2.8

2.8

2.7

2.5

2.5

2.7

2,5

2.3

2.6

2.0

1.9

1.6

1.2

1,7

1.9

2,594.1
2,6 1 6 . 4
2,63 8 . 8
2,436.7
2*645,3
2*675,3
-0.8

2*669.9

1-90

2.7

2.7

2.6

2.4

2.4

2,6

2,4

2.2

2.5

1.9

1.8

1.5

1.2

1,5

1.6

0.1

1.1

2-90

2.6

2.5

2.4

2.2

2.3

2.4

2.2

2.0

2.2

1.7

1.6

1.4

1.0

1.3

1.3

0.2

0.7

0.2

3-90

2.7

2.6

2.5

2.3

2.3

2.5

2.3

2.1

2.4

1.9

1,8

1.6

1.4

1.7

1.7

1.0

1.6

1.9

3.6

4-85

1-86

2-86

3-86

4-86

1-87

2-87

3-87

4-87

1-88

2-88

3-88

4-88

1-89

2-89

3-89

4-8 9

1-90

2-90

2* 6 7 7 . 3
2*678.8
2*702.7E

INITIAL QUARTER
E- ESTIMATED




P R E P A R E D B Y F E D E R A L R E S E R V E B A N K O F ST. L O U I S
O C T O B E R 30, 1990

15

G R O S S P R I V A T E D O M E S T I C I N V E S T M E N T IN C U R R E N T D O L L A R S
( C o m p o u n d e d A n n u a l Rates of C h a n g e )
TERMINAL
QUARTER
1-86

4-85

1-86

2-86

5-86

4-86

1-87

2-87

5-87

INITIAL Q U ARTER
ANN U A L R A T E S
4-87 1-88 2-88 5-88

BIL L I O N S OF
D O L LARS
4-88

1-89

2-89

5-89

4-89

1-90

2-90

19.4

685.8

2-86

1.0 -14 . 7

5-86

-1.5 - 1 0 . 5

-5.7

4-86

-0.8

-6 . 8

-2.5

0.7

1-87

2.8

-1. 0

4.0

9.2

18.5

2-87

5.6

0.7

4.9

8. 7

12.9

7.8

5-87

5.2

0.7

4.0

6.6

8.7

4.2

0.6

11.4

14.5

12.9

15.6

52.8

657.2
647.7
648.8
676.7
689.5
690.6

4-87

6.5

4.7

8.4

1-88

4.9

5.5

6.1

8.2

9.8

7.8

7.7

11.5

-6.4

2-88

5.4

5.9

6.5

8.4

9.8

8.1

8.2

10.8

1.2

9.5

5-88

5.9

4.6

7.0

8.7

9.9

8.6

8.7

10.9

4.4

10.2

10.9

5.5

6.6

7.5

5.9

5.5

6.5

0.8

5.4

0.4

-9.1

5.9

7.1

7.9

6.7

6.5

7.5

5.0

5.6

4.5

1.1

12.4

4-88

741.4
729.2
746.0
765.6

4.5

5.5

1-89

5.1

4.0

2-89

5.0

4.0

5.7

6.8

7.5

6.5

6.1

6.9

5.1

5.2

4.1

1.9

8.0

5.7

5.2

6.2

6.7

5.6

5.4

6.0

2.6

4.2

5.2

1.5

5.1

1.6

- 0.5

4.5

5.2

5.5

4.4

4.1

4.5

1.4

2.6

1.5

- 0.5

2.0

-1.2

-5.6

-6.6

747.5
769.7
776.7

4.7

5.7

4-89

5.9

5.0

1-90

5.2

2.2

5.5

4.2

4.4

5.4

5.0

5.2

0.5

1.2

0.1

- 1.6

0.0

-2.9

-5.0

-7. 2

-7.9

2-90

5.4

2.5

5.7

4.5

4.6

5.6

5.5

5.5

0.9

1.8

0.9

-0. 5

1.0

-1.1

-2. 5

-2.9

-1.0

6.5

5-90

5.2

2.4

5.5

4.1

4.5

5.4

5.0

5.2

0.9

1.6

0.8

-0.4

0.9

-0. 9

-1. 8

-2.1

-0. 5

5.5

0.5

4-85

1-86

2 -86

5-86

4-86

1-87

2-87

5-87

4-87

1-88

2 -8 8

5-88

4-88

1-89

2-89

5-89

4-89

1-90

2-90

5-89

775.8
762.7
747.2
759.0
7 5 9 . 6E

INITIAL Q U A R T E R
E- E S T I M A T E D
P R E P A R E D B Y FED E R A L R E SERVE B A N K OF ST, L O UIS
O C T O B E R 50» 1990

G R O S S P R I V A T E D O M E S T I C I N V E S T M E N T I N 1982 D O L L A R S
( C o m p o u n d e d A n n u a l Rates of C h a n g e )
TERMINAL
Q UA R T E R

4-85

1-86

2-86

1-86

1-87

2-87

5-87

- 4.7 - 1 4.5 -10.5

4-88

1-89

2-89

B I L L I O N S OF
D O LLARS
5-89

4-89

1-90

2-90

- 1. 8 - 1 8.5

5-86

4-86

18.5

2-86

5-86

INITIAL Q U A R T E R
A N N U A L R A TES
4-87 1-88 2-88 5-88
676.1

4 -86

-5.1 -1 1 . 8

1-87

- 0. 4

-4. 6

2-87

1.1

5-87

1.6

4-87

642.5
625.1

- 8.5

-6.2

0.5

6.4

20.6

-2. 0

2.6

7.5

14.8

9.2

-1. 0

2.9

6.5

11.1

6.6

4.1

4.4

2.6

6.6

10.5

14.9

15.0

14.9

26.9

1-88

5.4

1.6

4.9

7.7

10.7

8 .5

8.0

10.1

-4.6

2-88

5.4

1.9

4.8

7.1

9.5

7.4

7.0

8.0

-0.4

5.9

5-88

4.1

2.7

5.4

7.5

9.7

7.9

7.7

8.6

5.1

7.2

4-88

2.4

1.1

5.5

4.9

6.4

4.5

5.7

5.6

-1.5

-0.4

615.2
644.7
659.1
665.7
706.6
698.4
705.1
10.5

725.0

- 2 . 5 -14 . 0

696.2

1-89

5.2

2.0

4.1

5.6

7.0

5.5

4.9

5.1

1.2

2.7

2.5

-1. 7

12.5

2-89

5.0

1.9

5.8

5.2

6.4

5.0

4.5

4.5

1.2

2.4

2.0

-0. 7

6.7

1.2

5-89

2.9

1.9

5.7

4.9

6.0

4.7

4.2

4.2

1.5

2.5

1.9

-0.1

5.0

1.5

1.8

4-89

2.5

1.5

2.9

4 .0

4.8

5.5

5.0

2.8

0.2

0.9

0.4

-1. 5

1.9

-1.5

- 2.8

-7.1

1-90

1.9

0.9

2.5

5.5

4.1

2.8

2.5

2.1

-0.4

0.2

-0. 4

-2.1

0.5

- 2.5

-5.4

- 5. 9

-4.7

2-90

1.8

0.8

2.2

5.1

5.8

2.6

2.1

1.9

-0.5

0.1

-0. 5

- 1.8

0.4

-1.8

-2. 6

-4.0

-2.4

0.0

5-90

1.7

0.8

2.1

2.9

5.5

2.4

1.9

1.7

-0.5

0.1

-0.5

-1.6

0.4

- 1. 5

-2.1

-5.0

-1.6

0.0

-0.1

4 -85

1-86

2-86

5-86

4-86

1-87

2-87

3-87

4-87

1-88

2-88

5-88

4-88

1-89

2-89

5-89

4 -89

1-90

2-90

717.0
719.1
722.5
709.1
700.7
700.7
7 0 0 . 6E

INITIAL QUAR T E R
E- E S TIMATED




P R E P A R E D B Y F E D E R A L R E S E R V E BANK O F ST. L O U I S
O C T O B E R 50» 1990

16

G O V E R N M E N T P U R C H A S E S O F G O O D S A N D SERVICES IN C U R R E N T D O L L A R S
( C o m p o u n d e d A n n u a l Rates of C h a n g e )
T ER M I N AL
QUARTER

INITIAL QUARTER
4-85

1-86
2-86

1-86

2-86

3-86

4-86

1-87

2-87

3-87

4-87

1-88

-3.0

2-88

3-88

4-88

1-89

2-89

3-89

4-89

1-90

B I L L I O N S OF
D OLL A R S
ANNUAL RATES
2-90

8 5 0.3

3.0

9.2

3-86

3.7

7.2

4— 86

3.8

6.1

4.6

4.0

4.4

6.4

5.4

5.6

7.2

4.2

5.6

4.8

4.6

5.0

2.8

4.7

6.0

5.4

5.5

6.0

5.4

8.1

4.9

6.0

5.5

5.6

5.6

7.0

5.9

942.0

1-88

4.3

5.2

4.6

4.5

4.7

4.0

4.4

2.7

-0.5

940.9

2-88

4.5

5.3

4.8

4.8

4.9

4.5

4.9

3.9

2.9

6.3

4.1

3.6

3.8

2.7

1.7

2.8

1-87
2-87
3-87
4-87

8 69 . 3
5.2

880 . 3
888 . 9

6.0

904.5
910.7
928.5

955.4
-0.7

953.8

8.5

9.6

20.8

1 »000.0

7.2

7.5

11.8

4.0

4.7

4.2

4.1

4-88

5.3

6.1

5.8

5.8

6.1

5.9

6.4

6.1

6.2

1-89

5.1

5.9

5.5

5.6

5.8

5.6

6.0

5.7

5.6

5.6

5.8

5.6

6.0

5.7

5.6

6.9

7.0

5.3

5.4

5.2

5.5

5.2

5.1

6.1

6.0

5.5

5.3

5.6

5.3

5.2

6.1

6.0

3-88

3.4

1 »008.5

9.7

4.6

5.8

1 .022.7

7.8

3.7

3.9

2.0

7.4

4.3

4.6

4.1

6.2

6.1

6.2

8.4

10.7

6.1

6.2

7.7

8.4

2-89

5.2

5.8

5.6

3-89

5.0

5.6

5.3

4-89

5.0

5.6

5.4

5.4

1-90

5.4

5.9

5.7

5.7

5.9

5.8

6.0

5.8

5.8

6.6

6.7

8.0

5.6

2-90

5.4

5.9

5.7

5.8

5.9

5.8

6.1

5.9

5.9

6.6

6.6

7.7

5.7

1 »027.8
1 »043.3
1 ,070.1
1 »086.4

6.2

5.5

6.0

5.8

5.8

5.9

5.8

6.1

5.9

5.9

6.6

6.6

7.6

5.8

6.2

6.3

7.4

7.8

6.3

6.4

4-85

1-86

2-86

3-86

4— 86

1-87

2-87

3-87

4-87

1-88

2-88

3-88

4-88

1-89

2 -89

3-89

4-89

1-90

1 »103.4E

2-90

3-90

INITIAL QUARTER
E- ESTIMATED
P R E P A R E D B Y F E D E R A L R E S E R V E B A N K O F ST. L O U I S
OC TOBER 30» 1990

G O V E R N M E N T P U R C H A S E S O F G O O D S A N D S E R V I C E S I N 1982 D O L L A R S
( C o m p o u n d e d A n n u a l Rates of C h a n g e )
T ERMINAL
QUARTER

INITIAL QUARTER
4-85

1-86

2.3

2-86

3-86

4-86

1-87

2-87

3-87

4-87

1-88

2-88

3-88

4-88

1-89

2-89

3-89

4-8 9

1-90

2-90

744.1

-4.5

2-86

1-86

BILLIONS OF
DOLLARS
AN N U A L R A T E S

9.5

761.2

3-86

2.2

5.8

2.1

4-86

3.1

5.8

3.9

5.8

765.2
776.0

1-87

2.4

4.2

2.5

2.8

-0.2

2-87

1.5

2.7

1.1

0.7

-1.7

-3.2

3-87

2.0

3.2

2.0

1.9

0.7

1.1

5.5

4-87

2.5

3.6

2.6

2.7

2.0

2.7

5.7

6.0

1-88

1.2

1.9

0.8

0.6

-0.4

-0.4

0.5

-1.9

-9.2

2-88

1.4

2.0

1.1

1.0

0.2

0.3

1.2

-0.2

-3.2

3.3

775.7
769.5
7 79.8
791.3
772.4
778.7

3-88

0.9

1.4

0.6

0.4

-0.4

-0.4

0.2

-1.1

-3.4

-0.3

-3.8

4-88

2.0

2.7

2.0

2.0

1.5

1.8

2.6

2.1

1.1

4.8

5.5

15.7

1-89

1.6

2.2

1.5

1.4

1.0

1.1

1.7

1.1

0.2

2.7

2.5

5.8

-3.3

2-89

1.8

2.3

1.7

1.7

1.3

1.4

2.0

1.5

0.8

3.0

2.9

5.2

0.3

4.0

771.2
799.9
793.2
801.0

3-89

1.5

2.0

1.4

1.3

0.9

1.0

1.5

1.0

0.4

2.0

1.8

3.2

-0.6

0.8

-2.4

4-89

1.6

2.0

1.5

1.5

1.1

1.2

1.7

1.3

0.7

2.2

2.0

3.2

0.3

1.5

0.3

796.2
3.0

802.2

1-90

1.7

2.1

1.6

1.6

1.2

1.4

1.8

1.4

0.9

2.3

2.1

3.1

0.8

1.9

1.2

3.0

2.9

2-90

1.9

2.3

1.9

1.9

1.6

1.7

2.1

1.9

1.4

2.7

2.6

3.6

1.7

2.7

2.4

4.0

4 .5

6.2

3-90

1.9

2.3

1.8

1.8

1.6

1.7

2.1

1.8

1.4

2.6

2.5

3.3

1.6

2.5

2 .2

3.3

3.4

3.7

1.3

4-85

1-86

2-86

3-86

4-86

1-87

2-87

3-87

4-87

1-88

2-88

3-88

4-88

1-89

2-89

3-89

4 -8 9

1-90

2-90

807.9
820.2
822.8E

INITIAL QUARTER
E- E S T IMATED




P R E P A R E D B Y F E D E R A L R E S E R V E B A N K OF ST. L O U I S
O C T O B E R 30» 1990

17

D I S P O S A B L E P E R S O N A L I N C O M E IN C U R R E N T D O L L A R S
( C o m p o u n d e d A n n u a l Rates of C h a n g e )
TERMINAL

INITIAL QUARTER

quarter

4-85

1-86

2-86

3-86

4-86

1-87

2-87

3-87

4-87

1-88

2-88

1-89

4-88

3-88

2-89

3-89

4-89

1-90

2-90

BI L LIONS OF
DOLLARS
ANNUAL RATES
2.959.2

1-86

8.5

2-86

7.5

6.5

3-86

5.8

4.4

2.4

4-86

5.7

4.7

3.8

3*006.5
3.024.3
3.063.4

5.3

3.139.8

1-87

6.6

6.1

6.0

7.8

10.4

2-87

5.1

4.5

4.0

4.5

4.1

-1.8

3.125.7

3-87

6.0

5.6

5.4

6.2

6.5

4.6

11.4

4-87

6.7

6.5

6.5

7.3

7.8

7.0

11.6

11.9

1-88

7.0

6.9

6.9

7.7

8.2

7.6

10.9

10.7

9.6

2-88

7.1

6.9

7.0

7.6

8.0

7.6

10.0

9.6

8.5

7.4

3-88

7.3

7.2

7.3

7.9

8.3

7.9

10.0

9.6

8.9

8.6

9.7

4-88

7.3

7.2

7.2

7.8

8.1

7.8

9.4

9.1

8.4

8.0

8.3

6.9

3.211.1
3.302.3
3.378.6
3.439.4
3.520.1
3.578.9

1-89

7.4

7.4

7.4

8. 0

8.3

8.0

9.5

9.1

8.6

8.4

8.7

8.2

9.6

2-89

7.2

7.1

7.1

7.6

7.8

7.5

8.8

8.4

7.8

7.5

7.5

6.8

6.7

3.9

3-89

7.0

6.9

7.0

7.4

7.6

7.3

8.3

8 .0

7.4

7.1

7.0

6.3

6.2

4.5

5.1

4-89

7.0

6.9

6.9

7.3

7.4

7.2

8.1

7.8

7.3

6.9

6.9

6.3

6.2

5.1

5.6

3.661.7
3.697.3
3.743.4
6.1

3.799.6

1-90

7.1

7.1

7.1

7.4

7.6

7.4

8.3

7.9

7.5

7.3

7.3

6.8

6.8

6.2

6.9

7.9

9.6

2-90

7.0

6.9

6.9

7.2

7.3

7.1

7.9

7.6

7.2

6.9

6.8

6.4

6.4

5.7

6.2

6.5

6.7

4.0

3-90

6.8

6.7

6.8

7.0

7.1

6.9

7.6

7.3

6.9

6.6

6.6

6.2

6.1

5.5

5.8

6.0

6.0

4.2

4.4

4-85

1-86

2-86

3-86

4-86

1-87

2-87

3-87

4-87

1-88

2-88

3-88

4-88

1-89

2-89

3-89

4-89

1-90

2-90

3*887.7
3.925.7
3.96 8 . 6E

INITIAL QUARTER
E- ESTIMATED
P R E PARED BY FED E R A L R E SERVE B A N K OF ST. LOUIS

D I S P O S A B L E P E R S O N A L I N C O M E I N 1982 D O L L A R S
( C o m p o u n d e d A n n u a l Rates of C h a n g e )
TERMINAL
Q U A RTER
4-85

1-86

2-86

3-86

4-86

1-87

2-87

3-87

INITIAL QUA R T E R
A NNUAL RATES
4-87 1-88 2-88 3-88

4-88

1-89

BIL L I O N S OF
DOLLARS
2-89

3-89

4-89

1-90

2-90

1-86

7.4

2.609.2

2-86

6.8

6.2

3-86

3.9

2.2

- 1.7

4— 86

3.3

1.9

-0.2

1.4

1-87

3.3

2.3

1.1

2.5

3.6

2-87

1.6

0.5

- 0.8

-0.6

- 1.5

-6.3

3-87

2.4

1.5

0.6

1.2

1.2

0.0

4-87

3.0

2.4

1.7

2.4

2.7

2.4

7.1

7.5

1-88

3.4

3.0

2.5

3.2

3.6

3.6

7.1

7.4

7.3

2-88

3.4

2.9

2.5

3.2

3.5

3.4

6.0

5.8

5.0

2.7

3-88

3.5

3.1

2.8

3.4

3.7

3.7

5.8

5.6

4.9

3.8

4.9

4-88

3.4

3.0

2.7

3.2

3.5

3.5

5.2

4.9

4.3

3.3

3.6

2.3

1-89

3.5

3.1

2.9

3.3

3.6

3.6

5.1

4.8

4.3

3.5

3.8

3.3

4.2

2-89

3.1

2.8

2.5

2.9

3.1

3.0

4.3

3.9

3.3

2.6

2.5

1.7

1.5

-1.2

3-89

3.1

2.8

2.5

2.9

3.1

3.0

4.1

3.8

3.2

2.6

2.6

2.0

1.9

0.8

2.7

4-89

3.0

2.7

2.5

2.8

2.9

2.8

3.8

3.5

3.0

2.4

2.4

1.8

1.7

0.9

2.0

1.2

1-90

3.0

2.7

2.5

2.8

2.9

2.8

3.7

3.4

2.9

2.4

2.4

2.0

1.9

1.3

2.2

1.9

2.5

2-90

2.8

2.5

2.3

2.6

2.7

2.6

3.4

3.1

2.7

2.2

2.1

1.7

1.6

1.1

1.7

1.3

1.4

0.3

3-90

2.6

2.4

2.1

2.4

2.5

2.4

3.1

2.8

2.4

1.9

1.8

1.4

1.3

0.8

1.2

0.8

0.7

-0. 2

-0.6

4-85

1-86

2-86

3-86

4-86

1-87

2-87

3-87

4-87

1-88

2-88

3-88

4-88

1-89

2-89

3-89

4-89

1-90

2-90

2.648.6
2.637.3
2 *646.2
2*669.5
2*626.3
6.7

2*669.2
2*717.9
2.765.9
2 *784.4
2 ,818.0
2.833.9
2.863.5
2.854.9
2.874.3
2.883.2
2.900.9
2.902.8
2.8 9 8 . 4E

INITIAL Q U ARTER
E- ESTIMATED




P R E PARED BY FED E R A L RES E R V E B A N K OF ST. LOU I S
OCTOBER 30» 1990

18

C O R P O R A T E PROFITS AFTER TAXES
( C o m p o u n d e d A n d u al Rates of C h a n g e )
T E R MINAL
QU ARTER
5-85
4-85

B I L L I O N S OF
DOLLARS
ANNUAL RATES

INITIAL Q U ARTER
4-85

1-86

2-86

3-86

4-86

1-87

2-87

3-87

4-87

1-88

2-88

3-88

4 -88

1-89

2-89

3-89

4 -89

1-90

19,9

135*2

1-86

-23.6 -51.4

2-86

-18.1 -32.4

-5.9

3-86

-10.3 -18.6

5.4

4-86

-5.1 -10.5

1-87

2.9

112.9
111.2
18.0

115.9

9.7

18.4

18.8

19.4

-8.2

29.3

35.3

54.0

121.8
134.8

2-87

7.4

5.4

23.0

31.6

36.4

46.2

38.7

3-87

9.5

8.1

23.5

30.4

33.7

39.1

32.2

26.0

4-87

9.2

8.0

21.0

26.2

27.9

30.2

23.2

16.0

6.9

146.3
155.0
157.6

1-88

12.0

11.2

23.3

28.1

29.9

32.2

27.3

23.7

22.6

40.6

2-88

12.6

11.9

22.7

24.8

28.2

29.8

25.4

22.3

21.1

28.9

18.1

3-88

12.2

11.5

21.2

24.6

25.5

26.5

22.4

19.3

17.7

21.6

13.1

8.3

4-88

12.4

11.8

20.6

23.7

24.3

25.0

21.3

18.7

17.2

20.0

13.8

11.7

15.3

1-89

11.1

10.4

18.3

20.7

21.0

21.3

17.7

15.0

13.2

14.5

8 .8

5.9

4.7

2-89

8.2

7.4

14.2

16.1

15.9

15.6

12.0

9.0

6.8

6.7

1.0

-2.9

171.6
178.9
182.5
189.1
-5.0

186.7

-6.3 -15 . 5 - 2 4 . 9

173.8

3-89

6.1

5.2

11.2

12.6

12.2

11.6

8.1

5.1

2.7

2.2

-3.1

-6.9 - 18.4 - 1 7 . * - 2 3 . 2 - 2 1 . 5

4-89

6.1

5. 3

10.9

12.2

11.8

11.2

7.9

5.3

3.2

2.7

-1.8

-4.8

-7.2 -12.1 - 1 4 . 3

-8. 4

6.8

1-90

5.9

5.1

10.3

11.5

11.0

10.4

7.4

5.0

3.1

2.6

-1.3

-3.8

-5.7

-9.4 - 1 0 . 5

-5.1

4.3

1.9

2-90

5.4

4.7

9.5

10.6

10.1

9.5

6.6

4.3

2.5

2.1

-1.4

-3.6

-5.2

-8.3

-8.9

-4. 4

2.8

-0 . 2

-2.4

3-85

4-85

1-86

2-86

3-86

4-86

1-87

2-87

3-87

4-87

1-88

2-88

3-88

4-88

1-89

2-89

3-8 9

4-89

1-90

163.6
166.3
167.1
1 6 6 . IE

INITIAL QUARTER
E- E S T IMATED
PR E P A R E D B Y F E D E R A L R E S E R V E B A N K O F ST. L O U I S
O C T O B E R 30, 1990

H IS T O

N A T IO N A L

E s t i m
o

f

N

C

u r r e n t

t h e
B u

I P A

J u

f o

l e s

f o

r

r

l y

1 9 8 6 ,

p u b l i s h e d
S t 9

t e g

, „ 1

a n d

W

e a l t h

F o r

e n t




i n
1

f u

r t h

N

e r

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1 9 8 5

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e

INVENTORIES COMPARED WITH MONTHLY SALES
MANUFACTURING AND TRADE
SEASONALLY ADJUSTED
72

6 8

64

60

56

52

48

44

40

36
1976

1977

« B EG IN N IN G

19 7 8

IN 1982,

1979

1980

1981

1982

1983

1984

1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990
SOURCE! U.S.DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE

INVENTORY DATA REFLECT CHANGES IN ESTIMATION PROCEDURES.

SHADED AREAS REPRESENT PERIODS OF BU SIN ESS RECESSIONS.
LATEST DATA PLOTTED:




AUGUST PRELIMINARY
PREPARED

20

BY

FEDERAL

RESERVE

BANK

OF

ST.

LOUIS


Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, One Federal Reserve Bank Plaza, St. Louis, MO 63102