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Rates

of

(hange

in

l i R T I O n R L E c o n o mi c i n O I C R T O R S
PREPARED BY FEDERAL

MONTH ENDING:

A u g u s t 31, 1966

RESERVE

BANK OF ST. LOUIS

RELEASED:

S e p te m b e r 2 1, 1966

T o ta l sp en d in g con tin u ed to g r o w th rou g h A u g u st. P r i c e s
have con tin u ed to r i s e , r e fle c t in g the in a b ility o f output o f g o o d s and
s e r v i c e s to k e e p p a c e w ith the r a p id g r o w th o f fin a l d e m a n d .
P h y s ic a l output has a d v a n ce d s in c e e a r ly s p r in g but at a
r e d u c e d r a t e . In d u s tr ia l p r o d u c t io n r o s e at a 7 p e r c e n t annual r a te
f r o m June to A u g u s t, c o m p a r e d w ith a 9 p e r c e n t r a te f r o m F e b r u a r y
to June, and a 15 p e r c e n t r a te f r o m S e p te m b e r 1965 to F e b r u a r y 1966.
F r o m I9 6 0 to 1965 in d u s tr ia l p r o d u c t io n r o s e at an a v e r a g e annual
r a te o f 5. 7 p e r c e n t.
T o ta l p u r c h a s in g p o w e r as e v id e n c e d b y p e r s o n a l in c o m e has
con tin u ed to r i s e r a p id ly . T h is in c o m e flo w r o s e at an 8. 4 p e r c e n t
annual r a te f r o m June to A u g u st, abou t the s a m e ra te a s d u r in g the p a s t
y e a r and a b ou t tw ic e the ra te o f g ro w th o f p r o d u c t iv e p o te n tia l.
R e s p o n d in g to g ro w th o f p u r c h a s in g p o w e r m u c h m o r e
r a p id ly than p r o d u c t iv e c a p a c it y , p r i c e s have co n tin u e d to r i s e (s e e
c h a r t on n e x t p a g e ). L e d b y r is in g p r i c e s o f fa r m p r o d u c t s and p r o c e s s e d
f o o d s , w h o le s a le p r i c e s have r is e n at a 4 p e r c e n t r a te o v e r the p a s t y e a r .
T h ey had b e e n v ir t u a lly u n ch a n ged f r o m 1958 th ro u g h m i d - 1964, and then
had r i s e n at a 2 .3 p e r c e n t r a te f r o m m id -1 9 6 4 to O c t o b e r 1965.
B ank lo a n s con tin u ed to expan d th rou g h A u g u s t. T h e s e
lo a n s have g ro w n r a th e r s te a d ily at a bou t a 13 p e r c e n t annual ra te
d u rin g the p a s t tw e lv e m o n th s . H old in gs o f U. S. G o v e r n m e n t
s e c u r it ie s in c r e a s e d in A u g u st, in m a r k e d c o n t r a s t to a g e n e r a l
d ow n w a rd tr e n d . S u ch h o ld in g s have d e c lin e d a b ou t 5 p e r c e n t d u rin g
the p a s t y e a r .




Wholesale Price In d ex
Annual Rates of Change
Per C en t

Per C e n t

Bars on chart are periods of no marked and sustained changes in the rates
of change.
Percentages are annual rates of change between months indicated.
Latest data plotted: August preliminary




Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

TABLE I
Compounded Annual Rates of Change of Selected Business Indicators
Seasonally Adjusted

To August 1966 from Month Indicated

Employment 1/
Total
Civilian
Payroll

1966

1965

July
June
May
Apr.
Mar.
Feb.
Jan.
Dec.
Nov.
Oct.
Sept.
Aug.
July

4.4 j>

2.8
6.2
2.2

3.0

2.2
1.5

1.8
2.6

4.0 £
3.0
5.0
4.6
4.0
4.8
5.1
5.0
5.3

7.1 1
»
7.1

8.2

9.0

7.8
8.6
9.4
9.8
n.o

2.2

5.*
5.2

11.0
11.3
9.6
9.0

3.0
3.1
2.7

5.6
5.6

Industrial
Production 2/

Personal
Income 3/

10.9 £
8.4
8.7
7.8

6.9
7.3
7-7
7.3
7.7
8.4
6.4

8.8
8.5

Retail
Sales

20.1
12.1
25.1
11.7
3.3
5.0

6.0
6.5
6.7
8.4
9.8
9.7

8.6

1964

Aug.

2.7

4.8

8.7

8.1

7.9

1963

Aug.

2.5

^•3

8.1

7.7

7-9

6.9

6.5

5-7
5-2
^.5
4.0
3.8
4.1

5.9
5.7
5.4

6.7
5.3
4.7
4.5
4.4
4.4
4.4

To 1965 from Year Indicated

1961
i960
1959
1957
1955
1953
1951

2.0
1.6

3.0 r
2.3 r

1.6
1.3
1.4
1.3
1.2

2.2 r
1.8 r
1.8 r
1.6
1.7

5.6
5-3
5.4

r- Revised
Sources:

1/ U.S. Department of Labor.
2/ Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.
3/ U.S. Department of Commerce.




Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
September 19, 1966

TABLE II

Compounded Annual Rates of Change of Selected Business Indicators
Seasonally Adjusted

Change from Previous Month to Month Indicated

Employment y
Total
Civilian Payroll

1966

1965

Aug.
July
June
May
Apr.
Mar.
Feb.
Jan.
Dec.
Nov.
Oct.
Sept.
Aug.
July

4.4 $

4.0

1.2

2.0

13.3

9.2
3.2

8.9
6.1
1.4
3.1
4.6

9.0
6.0
^.5
1.5
3.7
9.3

2.0

8.6
6.8
J.
+5

7.6
8.7

5.2
3.2
3.6
4.4

Industrial
Production 2/
7.1

7.1

10.5
11.5
3.2

12.5
14.5
12.8
20.6
11.3
14.3
8.0
2.5

Personal
Income 3 /

Retail
Sales 3/

IO.9 £
6.0
9.2
5.^
3.2
9-5
10.1
4.4
11.4
14.0

20.1 £

- 10.9

38.2
5-5
7.5

13.4

4.7
55-6
- 20.6
- 24.4

13.8
12.1
10.5

8.6
24.9
24.7
8.9
- 4.1
19.3

Monthly Seasonally Adjusted Data
Thousands of Persons

1966

Aug.
July
June
May
Apr.

7M38
74,072
73,997
73,231
73,799

64,299
64,089
63,983
63,517
63,350

1951-59 = 100

158.3
157 .^

156.5
155.2
153.8

Billions of Dollars
Annual Rates

585.0 p
580.0 p
577.2
573.0

570.5

310.6 p
305.9 P

304.7
293.7
299.4

p- Preliminary
r- Revised
Sources:

1/ U.S. Department of Labor.
2/ Board of Goveraors of the Fédéral Reserve System.
3/ U.S. Department of Commerce.




Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
September 19, 1966

TABLE III

Compounded Annual Rates of Change of Selected Business Indicators

To August 1966 from Month Indicated
Prices 1/
Consumer *

Wholesale Prices
Farm Products and
Industrials
Processed Foods

All Items

All
Commodities

July
June
May
Apr.
Mar.
Feb.
Jan.
Dec.
Nov.
Oct.
Sept.
Aug.
July

- $
4.4
3.8
2.9
3.5
3.7
4.2
3.6
3.7
3.5
3.4
3.3
2.8

4.6 %
6.4
4.6
3-7
3.2
2-7
3.6
3-9
4.3
4.3
4.0
3.8
3.5

2.8

2.4
2.4

7.8

1964

Aug.

2.4

3-2

2.0

6.7

1963

Aug.

2.0

2.1

1.4

4.0

1966

1965

0.0
1.7
1.9
2.6
2.8

2.7
2.9
2.6
2.8

2.7

io

16.4

io

21.8

13.2
7.4
4.2
2.8
5.8
6.8

9.1
9.0
8.3

6.8

To I965 from Year Indicated

1961
i960
1959
1957
1955
1953
1951

I .3
1.3
I .3
1.4

1.7

1.4
1.4

0.6
0.4

0.3

0.4
1.0
0.8
0.4

0.4
0.2
0.2
0.4
1.0
1.1

0.8

0.9
0.7
0.6
0.4

0.6
0.1

* August data not available, rates of change are to July 1966 from month indicated.
Sources:




1/ U.S. Department of Labor.
Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
September 19, 1966

TABLE V
Compounded Annual Rates of Change of Bank Credit
All U.S. Commercial Banks
Seasonally Adjusted

to August 1966 from Base Period Indicated y

Base
Period

1966

Total

Total
Loans

Securities
U.S. Gov't.
Other

16.6

July

9.2 $

10.4 i

- 3.7 #

June

9.9

14.8

- 1.9

2.8

May

9.1

14.2

2.6

- 2.9

Apr.

8.8

13.3

7.0

- 4.8

Mar.

9.3

13.6

7.8

- 4.0

Feb.

8.7

13.6

8.4

- 6.7

Jan.

8.4

13.6

8.4

- 8.3

Dec.

8.9

13.9

8.6

- 6.7

Nov.

9.0

13.6

9.0

- 5-6

Oct.

9*3

13.4

9.3

- 4.1

Sept.

9.2

13.2

9-5

- 4.0

Aug.

9.0

13.1

9.9

- 4.8

July

9.0

13.1

10.3

- 4.9

1964

Aug.

9.8

13.9

13.2

- 4.4

1963

Aug.

9.0

13.3

12.3

- 4.5

1965




<
f
>

.used are averages of end of preceding and current month.
Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
September 20 , 1966

TABLE VI
Compounded. Annual Rates of Change of Bank Credit
All U.S. Commercial Banks
Seasonally Adjusted

Change from Previous Month to Month Indicated

Total

1966

Aug.
July

Total
Loans

9.2 io
9.2 io
10.5

19.3

io
10.4 io

13.0

June
May
Apr.
Mar.

11.0
6.0

13.4

Feb.
Jan.

6.3
12.8

15 o9

Dec.
Nov.

9.9
9-9
11.4

11.4

Oct.
Sept.

8.5
6.3

11.6

Aug.
July

1965

7.6
8.1

9.6
8.5

Other
-

y

Securities____
U.S. Gov't,

16.6

3*7 $
3.7 ‘
-0-

-

i
o

9-^

- 13.2

12.2
21.4

-

14.7

11.1
11.2

1.1
- I9 .I

13.9

8.3
9-9

- I7.2
5.3

I3 .O
11.6

3.2
11.1

11.7
15 .O

- 3.1
- 13.6

15.2
17.0

- 5.0
- 7.9

10.8

11.5
11.4

13.3

12.4

10.2

Average Amount Outstanding
Seasonally Adjusted
Millions of Dollars
Aug.
July

$ 309,000
306,750

$ 207,000

205,300

$ 47,000
47,150

$ 55,000
54,300

June
May

1966

304,200
302,350

202,300
200,250

^7,150

5^,750
55,^0

k6 , 700

1/ Data used are averages of end of preceding and current month.




Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St Louis
September 20, 1966


Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, One Federal Reserve Bank Plaza, St. Louis, MO 63102