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Rates

of

Change

in

R R T I O R R L E c on o mi c i n D I C R T O R S
PREPARED BY FEDERAL

MONTH ENDING:

S e p te m b e r 30, 1966

RESERVE

BANK OF ST. LOUIS

RELEASED: O c t o b e r 20,

M e a s u r e d in d o l l a r s , the n a tio n a l e c o n o m y h as c o n ­
tin u ed to exp an d a t a ra p id r a t e . M e a s u r e d in r e a l t e r m s , a d v a n c e
h as b e e n a t a r e d u c e d r a t e , p r o b a b ly due to c a p a c it y lim it a t io n s .
P e r s o n a l in c o m e r o s e at a 9 p e r c e n t ann ual r a te f r o m
M ay to S e p te m b e r c o m p a r e d w ith a 6 p e r c e n t r a te f r o m I9 6 0 to
1 965, a tim e w hen u n u sed r e s o u r c e s w e r e m o r e r e a d ily a v a ila b le .
W a g e s and s a la r ie s have c o n tr ib u te d la r g e ly to the in c r e a s e in
p e r s o n a l in c o m e , in c r e a s in g a t a 9. 7 p e r c e n t an n ual r a te f r o m
M ay to S e p t e m b e r .
I n d u s tr ia l p r o d u c t io n , a m a jo r p a r t o f r e a l p r o d u c t ,
r o s e a t a 6 p e r c e n t r a te f r o m M ay to S e p te m b e r and at a 4 p e r c e n t
r a t e f r o m June, c o m p a r e d w ith a 10 p e r c e n t r a t e o f i n c r e a s e f r o m
M ay 1965 to M ay 1966.
T o ta l e m p lo y m e n t, a n oth er in d ic a t o r o f r e a l e c o n o m ic
g ro w th , has b e e n in c r e a s in g a t a 1 .5 p e r annum r a te a ft e r g r o w in g
a b o u t 3 p e r c e n t f r o m e a r ly 1965 to e a r ly 1966. P a y r o l l e m p lo y m e n t
s i m ila r ly has g ro w n at o n ly a 3 p e r c e n t r a te s in c e la s t M a r c h a ft e r
in c r e a s in g 5 . 3 p e r c e n t in the p r e c e d in g y e a r . T h e s e d e c lin e s in
the r a t e o f in c r e a s e in e m p lo y m e n t m a y be due to the lim it e d a v a il­
a b ilit y o f w o r k e r s p r o fit a b ly e m p lo y a b le at o r a b o v e the m in im u m
w age r a t e s .
W ith to ta l d em a n d in c r e a s in g m u c h m o r e r a p id ly than
r e a l p r o d u c t , p r i c e s h ave r i s e n r a p id ly . The g e n e r a l p r ic e le v e l
r o s e a t a 3 . 6 p e r c e n t annual r a te f r o m the f i r s t to the th ird q u a r t e r .
C o n s u m e r p r i c e s h a v e r i s e n a t a b ou t a 4 p e r c e n t ann ual r a te s in c e
e a r ly th is y e a r and w h o le s a le p r i c e s have b e e n r is in g at a b ou t a 3 .5
p er cen t ra te.




1966

Payroll Employment
Annual Rates of Change
Per C e n t

Per C e n t

20

20

S e a s o n a ll y A d ju s t e d

15

15
10
+4.8%

+
2.8%

5
0

10

+7.2%

/

A

5
à

f

V

0

-5

-5
Ocfober'64

January'63

i i i. i i
t

-10

1963

1964

October’65 March'66lSeptember’66

^ (ll

1965

<tl I I I I itl I !
1966

Bars on chart are periods of no marked and sustained changes in the rates
of change.
Percentages are annual rates of change between months indicated.
Latest data plotted:




September preliminary
Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

■

10

TABLE I
Compounded Annual Rates of Change of Selected Business Indicators
Seasonally Adjusted

To September 1966

from Month Indicated

y

Total
Civilian

1966 Aug.

Payroll

Industrial ,
Production —'
- 0.7 i
3.9
4.4
5-9
7.0
6.4
7.2
8.1
8.6
9-8
9-9
10.3
8.7

Personal-/
Income •'
*

Retail .
Sales

8.7 1*
10.2
8.8
8.9
8.2
7-3
7.6
8.0
7.6
7-9
8.5
6.7
8.8

- * .7 *
4.6
2.6

July
June
May
Apr.
Mar.
Feb.
Jan*
1965 Dec.
Nov.
Oct.
Sept.
Aug.

- 2.8 *
0.8
0.9
3-9
1.2
2.0
1-5
0.9
1.3
2.1
2.4
2.6
2.3

- 0.3 *
1.0
1.3
3.2
3.2
3-0
3.8
4.1
4.2
4.5

1964 Sept.

2.6

^5

8.7

8.3

7.0

1963 Sept.

2.3

4.1

8.0

7.8

7.7

6.5
5-9
5.7
5.^
5-6
5-3
5.4

6.7
5-3
4.7
4.5
4.4
4.4
4.4

4.9

4.9
4.8

13.8
5-9

0.1
2.0

3.2
4.0
4.4
6.2
7.6
7-7

To 1965 from Year Indicated

1961
i960
1959
1957
1955
1953
1951
Sources:




2.0
1.6
1.6
1.3
1.4
1.3
1.2

3-0
2.3
2.2
1.8
1.8
1.6
1.7

6.9
5.7
5-2
4.5
4.0
3.8
4.1

l/ U. S. Department of Labor.
2/ Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.
¿/ U. S. Department of Commerce.
Prepared " y Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
b
October 19, 1966

TABLE II
Compounded Annual Rates of Change of Selected Business Indicators
Seasonally Adjusted

Change from Previous Month to Month Indicated

y

Total
Civilian
Sept.
Aug.
July
June
May
Apr.
Mar.
Feb.
Jan.
Dec.
Nov.
Oct.
Sept.
Aug.

- 2.8 *
4.4
1.2
13-3
- 8.9
6.1
- 1.4
- 3.1
4.6

Payroll
- 0.3
2.4

1
»

1.7

9.2
3-2
2.0
8.6
6.8
4.5

9.0
6.0

7.6
8.7

4.5
- 1.5
- 3*7

5.2
3-2
3-6

Industrial _/
Production —'

- 0.7 i

8.7
5.5
10.5
11.5
3.2
12.5
14.5

12.8
20.6

11.3
14.3
- 8.0
2.5

Personal-/
Income

8.7 i
11.8
6.0
9-2
5-4
3-2
9-5
10.1
4.4
11.4
14.0

Retail
Sales

&

- 4.7 $

14.9
- 1.5
55-6
- 20.6
- 24.4

13.8
12.1

10.5

- 10.9

8.6
24.9
24.7

5-5

- 4.1

38.2

8.9

Monthly Seasonally Adjusted Data
Thousands of Persons

1966 Sept.
Aug.
July
June
May

74,165
74,338
74,072
73,997
73,231

64,181 p
64,196 p
64,072
63,983
63,517

1957-59 = 100

158.2 p
158.3 P
157.2
156.5
155.2

Billions of Dollars
Annual Rates
589.5 P
585.4 p

580.0
577-2
573 .O

306.6 p
307.9 P
304.3
304.7
293.7

p - preliminary

Sources:

1/ U.S. Department of Labor.
2/ Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.
3/ U.S. Department of Commerce.




Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
October 19, 1966

TABLE III

Compounded Annual Rates of Change of Selected Business Indicators
To September 1966 from Month Indicated

Prices 1/
Consumer *
All Items

All
Commodities

Wholesale Prices
Farm Products and
Industrials
Processed Foods

0.0 #

- 1.2 <>
t

4.3
3-5
3-9
4.0
4.4
3-8
3-9
3-7
3.6
3.5

2.3
4.2
3-5
3-0
2.7
2.3
3-2
3.5
3-8
3-9
3-7
3-5

-

1964 Sept.

2.6

1963 Sept.

2.1

1966 Aug.
July
June
May
Apr.
Mar.
Feb.
Jan.
1965 Dec.
Nov.
Oct.
Sept.
Aug.

-*
5-4

4.9

4.4

0.6
0.8
1.2

10.2

1-9
2.1
2.2
2-3
2.5
2.2
2.4
2.3
2.2

6.8
4.3
3.0
5-6
6.6
8.6
8.6
7.9
7-5

3.0

2.0

6.1

2.1

1.4

4.3

15.7

10.9

To 1965 from Year Indicated

1961

i960
1959
1957
1955
1953
1951

1.3
1.3
1-3
1.4
1.7
1.4
1.4

0.4

0.9
0.7
0.6

0.6
0.4
0.3
0.4

0.4

0.4

1.0

1.0

0.8
0.4

l.l

0.6
0.1

0.2
0.2

0.8

* September data not available, rates of change are to August 1966 from
month indicated.
Sources:




1/ U.S. Department of Labor.
Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
October 18, 1966

TABLE IV

Compounded Annual Rates of Change of Selected Business Indicators

Change from Previous Month to Month Indicated
Prices

y

Consumer
All Items
Sept.
Aug.
July
June
May
Apr.
Mar.
Feb.
Jan.
Dec.
Nov.
Oct.
Sept.
Aug.

All
Commodities

N.A.# *
5-4
4.4
3.2
1.1
5-5
4.4
6.7

0.0

4.4
2.2
2.2
2.2
- 2.2

Wholesale Prices
Farm Products and
Processed Foods
Industrials

0.0 £
4.6
8.3
1.1
1.1
1.1
0.0
9-6
5-9
7.2
4.8
1.2
1.2
0.0

- 1.2 i
0.0
3-5
2.3
4.7
3-5
2.3
3.5
3-5
0.0
4.8
1.2
0.0
2.4

4.4 £

16.4
27.5
- 2.2
- 8.5
- 7.4
- 4.3
26.I
14.4

28.5
8.4
1.2
2.4
- 4.5

Monthly Unadjusted Data
1957-59 = 100

1966 Sept.
Aug.
July
June
May

N.A.

*

113.8
113.3
112.9

112.6

106.8 p

105.1

106.8

105.2
105.2

106.4
105.
7

105.6

104.9
104.7

111.7 P
III.3
109.9
107.7
107.9

p - preliminary
* - Sept. data not available
Source:

1/ U.S. Department of Labor




Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
October 18, 1966

TABLE V
Compounded Annual Rates of Change of Bank Credit
All U.S. Commercial Banks
Seasonally Adjusted

to September 1966 from Base Period Indicated 1/

Base
Period
66

Total

August

- 1.3 #

Total
Loans
- 1.2 <
f>

Securities
Other
U.S. Gov1
,
- 2.5 t

-

1 .1 1

July

3.8

^•5

-

3.1

7.4

June

6.0

9.2

- 2.1

1.5

May

6.4

10.1

I .3

-

2.4

Apr.

6-7

IO.3

5 .O

-

4.0

Mar.

7.4

11.0

6.0

-

3.5

Feb.

7.2

II.3

6.7

-

5.9

Jan.

7-1

11.7

6.9

-

7.4

Dec.

7-7

12.1

7-3

-

6.1

Nov.

7.9

12.0

7-8

-

5.2

Oct.

8.3

12.0

8.2

-

3.8

Sept.

8.3

12.0

8.4

-

3.8

Aug.

8.1

II.9

8.9

-

4.6

54

Sept.

9.1

13.3

12.4

-

5.0

53

Sept.

8.8

12.9

11.7

-

4.1

Data used are averages of end of preceding and current month.




Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
October 11, 1966

TABLE VI
Compounded Annual Rates of Change of Bank Credit
All U.S. Commercial Banks
Seasonally Adjusted

Change from Previous Month to Month Indicated 1/

Total

1966 Sept.

- 1.3 1
»

Total
Loans

- 1.2

io

Other

Securities
U.S. Gov’
t

- 1.1
I6.6

- 2.5 1
o
- 3-7

Aug.

9-2

10.4

July
June

10.5
7-6

19-3

13.0

-012.2

- 9-4
-I3 .2

May
Apr.

8.1
11.0

10.8

21.4

14.7

11.1

-10.2
- 1.1

Mar.
Feb.

6.0

13.4
13.9

11.2

6-3

8.3

- I9 . I
-I7 .2

Jan.

12.8
9.9

15.9
11.4

9-9
13.0

5-3
3.2

Nov.
Oct.

11.4

11.5

11.6

11.1

8.5

11.6

11.7

- 3.1

Sept.
Aug.

6.3
9.6

11.4
13-3

15.0
15.2

io

-13.6
- 5.0

1965 Dec.

Average Amount Outstanding
Seasonally Adjusted
o
Millions 1f Dollars

1966 Sept.
Aug.
July
June

$ 308,650
309,000

$ 206,800
207,000

$ 46,900

47,000

$ 54,950
55,ooo

306,750

205,300
202,300

47,150
47,150

54,300
54,750

304,200

1/ Data used are averages of end of preceding and current month.




Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
October 11, 1966


Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, One Federal Reserve Bank Plaza, St. Louis, MO 63102