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Monthly Review ——-----— Volume X X IX DECEMBER 1, 1947 Number 12 Forest Resources in the Eighth Federal Reserve District Dale ** fAv oritcJ* or# o roJ/^cfto* cmf JMfMwayy o/ twr^ < M &y o^A^r &M amf M ftVM M fwali. fAoj^ wAo Aav^ coo/tpra?^ w dafa arf jfa^f owJ /orMfry ^A vaWovj M*wtw.nfM.y w ^ fAf Mtf/tMffd w ^Af ^Ac ^4tM ran frM ForM^ry aytJ ^Af (/. J. F or^f fA? JoM^Afrw ForMf JfafMM a^ A*fw Or/MHJ, fA^ C^wh*aJ .Sfafaf For^yf ^fa&w C<?/m*&*M, OAw, cwJ o^A^r o? fA^ jy^rwc^. fw a&K(MW ^ ^arw < M ffMMy Mf /fOW ^A 3&0Vf-yM tP<f ^ W wyawaftaHJ w w v^ry A^J^MJ *x ^MrwMAwp waf^riaJ. * # * The Eighth Federal Reserve District is gener ally considered agricultural, yet 43 per cent o f the total land area in the district is covered with forest. Basic and finished lumber industries, which in clude processing from logging to furniture manu facture, employed 93,000 people in the Eighth Fed eral Reserve District in 1940, representing 19 per cent of total employment in manufacturing indus tries for that year. In certain areas, timbering and related industries are of much greater importance. For instance, in Arkansas nearly 37,000 people were employed in basic and finished lumber industries representing 63 per cent of total manufacturing employment in that state. In addition, practically every farmer in the district receives income in some form from forests and forest products to supple ment the generally low level of farm income char acteristic o f this district. Forests have generally been considered a virtu ally inexhaustible natural resource and, except on the part of those intimately connected with phases of forestry, little thought has been given to possible deterioration and elimination. Virtually all of the land area in the Eighth District was once covered by trees. However, in early years, trees were viewed as little more than obstacles in the path of farmers who wished to bring virgin soil into culti vation. Thus, a vast amount of the original timber was burned in order to plant crops. Later, remain ing tracts were exploited by destructive cutting. The best trees were cut, leaving the poorer quality trees on the land. In some instances, insufficient growth of good saplings for adequate restocking was left. Today, practically no virgin timber remains in the district. The remaining forest trees are largely second growth. The war caused another round of severe cuts of the best quality trees to provide the tremendous amount of lumber needed for tempor ary housing, barracks, shipbuilding, new factory buildings, warehouses and other emergency needs. Now, the huge postwar demand for lumber is a further drain on our declining timber supply. An inventory and appraisal of our remaining timber resources thus appears in order. W e need to know more about the possibilities for future growth and yield, and what these mean in terms of present and prospective income, employment, and industrial development in the district. This article will be concerned with the basic timber resources of the area; industrial phases will be discussed in later articles. This project is in keeping with the regional research program of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, as outlined in the February, 1947 issue of this The major objective of this program is to point out possible ways and means to raise the general level of prosperity of the district and yet leave our resources for the next generation in the best possible condition. E X T E N T OF FO R E ST LAN D A total of 54 million acres of land, representing more than two-fifths of the total land area in the Eighth Federal Reserve District, is covered with forest.* The extent of forest land in each district state portion varies from approximately three-fifths of the total land area in Arkansas to less than onefifth of the district portion of Illinois. Only in Indiana and Illinois does forest cover less than onethird of the total land area. On the accompanying table, the proportion of land in forest in the district portion of Eighth Dis trict states is compared to the percentage of forest land in each entire state since certain data are not available for the district proper. The Eighth Dis1 A wide variation exists as to quality and density of merchantable timber on forest land and many acres classified as forest land have no merchantable timber at this time. Page 134 FOREST Kentucky I l li n o is ACREAGE IN Forest Land ' ( Thousands of Acres) . 20.036 19,142 15.8S9 12,165 ____11,857 3,445 3,396 ------ T o t a l ________ E lG H T lf D IS T R IC T L ^ d l^ t ^ 59% 43 52 45 46 15 10 39 85.930 * Data, Reappraisal Project. S T A T E S IN 1945 District Portton Percentage ot Forest Land Forested Land {Thousands o f Acres) 59% 2 0 ,0 3 6 ' 47 1 7,5 37 ' 38 5,165* 36 2^502 ' 35 5,015* 24 1,427 * 17 2,248 ' 53.929 U .S . Forest 43 1946. * State Departments of Forestry of respective states. __. * State Department of Forestry and American Forestry Assocta < Forestry Resources of Tennessee. _ - _ _ * American Forestry Association, R . Brundage, Forest Kts° Appraisal. _ . _ t_ * Illinois Technical Forestry Association, A Plan for Forestry Illinois. . * State Department* of Forestry and American Forestry Associj* * tota! acreages were 1 per cent more than total of U .S. Forest &erv* trict portions of Missouri, Indiana, and Illinois are more densely forested than their areas outside the district. In contrast, district portions of Kentucky, Tennessee, and Mississippi are less densely fo r e s te d than the portions of these states outside the district. This difference between the proportion of land in forest in the Eighth District sections of the various states and the state areas outside the district should be kept in mind in subsequent discussions involving state totals. Areas with the highest proportion of forest land are in general the more hilly and mountainous parts of Missouri and Arkansas. In 75 of the 362 district counties, more than three-fifths of the land area is covered with forest. Seventy of these 75 counties are located in the Ozarks of Missouri and Arkansas and the Ouachita and Piedmont regions of Arkansas. In 14 of the counties, more than fourfifths of the area is forest land. The less densely forested areas are found north of the Missouri River in Missouri, in the entire states of Illinois and Indiana, and along the delta land of Arkansas and Mississippi. The accompanying map points out clearly the importance of good forest management practices to Eighth District economic welfare. Many communi ties are located in counties having from 50 to 75 per cent of land area in forest. They should be vitally concerned, therefore, with forests and forest yields. If maximum prosperity is to be achieved, the development and increasing productivity of forests in such areas should have a high priority in community development programs. The type of forest ownership varies considerably among the states in the district. Of the 20 million acres of commercial forest land in Arkansas, less than one-third is in farm woodlots, while over 90 per cent of the woodland in Illinois and Indiana is in farm woodlots. More than half of all woodland in Arkansas is owned by industrial and other non farm owners. Nonfarm owners also hold approxi mately half of all forest land in Missouri, Tennes see, Mississippi, and Kentucky. Thus, a forestry improvement program in Indiana and Illinois should be directed primarily to farm woodlot own ers. Forestry programs in other district states must, in addition, be aimed at industrial and other nonfarm owners. In this connection, forest under private nonfarm, nonindustrial ownership may present a particular problem, since a large portion of this acreage is also nonresident owned. No esti mate is available as to the extent of such holdings, but they are believed to be considerable. Fre quently, these forests either are left completely alone with no cutting and stand improvement, or destructive cutting on a contract basis is permitted from time to time. O W N E RSH tP ^ ^ Of EtGHTH COM M ERCIAL OtSTRtCT F O R E ST S * STATES ^ OWNERSHIP OF FOREST LAND CMSTRtCT STATES About 91 per cent of the forest area in Eighth District .states is under private ownership, being about equally divided between farm and industrial or other nonfarm owners. For the district as a whole, therefore, the maintenance of present pro duction or increasing present yield of forests for the immediate future depends almost entirely upon what private owners do with their forest land. The Federal Government, although holding only a small share of district states' forest area in comparison with private owners, owns 7 million acres of forest land, or 8 per cent of the total. Its ownership tends to be concentrated in large tracts and for some counties practically all forest land is Fed erally owned. All but one-eighth of Federally owned woodland is in national forests. The balance of nonprivate woodland in the district, about 1 per cent of the total, is under state, county, or munici pal ownership. Federal ownership is important in Arkansas. Mississippi, and Tennessee. In Arkansas, 2.6 million acres, or 13 per cent of the total forest acreage, is owned by the Federal Government. One million acres are Federally owned in Mississippi and Tennessee. KENTUCKY tNDtANA tLUNOtS 0 20 40 60 Stote, county Of municipal SS Form woodtots Indust rid ond other Page 135 Industrial forest holdings are increasing, especially in the Mid-South states. Such holdings are large so that good management by a few Arms makes a substantia! contribution to timber produc tion. Considerable areas have been, and are being, placed on a sustained yield basis by these commer cial Arms. Size of Private Holding*—The bulk of privately owned forest land consists of relatively small tracts. In district states, 88 per cent o f the forest land is held in tracts of less than 5,000 acres, varying from 79 per cent of the forest land in Arkansas to 100 per cent in Indiana and Illinois. Tracts larger than 50,000 acres are important only in Arkansas, Mis sissippi, and Tennessee where 16, 9, and 6 per cent, respectively, of the total forest land is held in tracts of this size. T A B U 11 OW NERSH IP OP PR IVA TE COM M ERCIAL FORESTS IM EIGHTH DISTR IC T M A T E S IM !$45. B Y SIZE OP HOLDIMO Per Cent of Tots! Private Porest Acreage in Hoidtngs o f : Private Foreit! * Less Than 5,000 to More Thin (Thonund* of Acres) $,000 Acres 50,000 Acres SO,000 Acres 79% 5% 16% Arkansas ................... 17,179 Missouri .................. 17,560 96 2 3 Mississippi._____ 14,!5) Tennessee _________ 10,762 K e n tu ck y __________H,!25 Indiana — — 3,17S HKnois____________ 3,! 17 M M 92 !00 100 $ 9 !0 6 6 2 __ ____________ — — District states... 77,072 M 5 7 * Includes farm, industria! and non-farm private commercia! forests. Sonrce: Preiiminary Data from Reappraisai of the Forest Situation, U.S. Forest Service. The United States Forest Service classifies all holdings of less than 5,000 acres as small. Further breakdown in terms of size o f holding would be desirable in order to separate the small, farm woodlots (which could fumish only part-time employ ment) from the larger holdings. Acreages of less than 240 acres generally would be in this small, farm woodlot class. According to data obtained from the Crossett "Farm Forestry Forty" (an experimental plot main tained by the Southern Forest Experiment Station in Arkansas), a woodlot of about 240 acres, wellstocked and under intensive management, will keep one man busy the year-round. A woodland of 300 to 1,000 acres under intensive management will require more than one man. The stumpage value alone on intensively managed, well-stocked hold ings of over 1,000 acres should yield at least $2,000 per year after deducting for real estate taxes. (This is equivalent to only half the per acre stumpage value of timber growth on the Forty.) Thus the stumpage value of a 1,000 to 5,000 acre forest investment represents a reasonably good annual income. Page 136 KIND AMD VOLUME OP TIMBER Hardwood species cover the major part of the forest land in Eighth District states with practically all timber in Indiana, Illinois, and Missouri of the hardwood type. Pure stands of hardwood species also cover four-Rfths of the forest land in Kentucky, two-thirds of that in Tennessee and Arkansas, and one-fourth of that in Mississippi. Only Arkansas and Mississippi contain considerable acreages of pure pine. However, mixed pine and hardwood stands may be found over wide areas of Arkansas, Mississippi, Tennessee, and Kentucky. The latter two states also have small areas covered with mixed cedar and hardwood stands. TABLE n : P R O PO R TIO N O P FO REST LAM D IM V A R IO U S SPECIES IM E IO H TH D IS T R IC T STATES (Per cent of Total Forest Acreage) Upland Bottomtand Pine and Cedar and Hardwoods Hardwoods Hardwoods Pine Hardwoods i _____ Mississtppi ' ______ Tennessee * _______ Kentucky ' ________ IMinois * — —------ 43% S9 60 a: 59 76 !S% 6 14 6 2 40 24 H% 4 5! 24 )2 3!% 2!% 23 4 ... — I *6 : — !0 20 District states _____ 56 !2 * State Departments of Forestry of respective states. ' State Department of Forestry and American Forestry "Forest Resources of Tennessee". * American Forestry Association. ' R. Brundage, Pardue University, and American Forestry ' !!!inois Technics) Forestry Association. There has been a tendency over a period of years not only for reduction in acreage and density of forest growth, but also for deterioration in the quality of existing stands. High-quality trees have been cut and poor-quality trees have been left to take their place. Successive cuts of this nature have caused additional deterioration of species and quality. In upland stands, for instance, scrub oak and hickory have taken the place of more desirable species. Red and black oak have replaced white oak. Even white oak trees are less valuable in thm stands which result in short, limby trees of rela tively small sawtimber value. In the Mid-South, pine trees have been cut, leav ing hardwood species of less commercial value. Under present high prices, many o f the less desifable species can be harvested profitably, but under prewar prices much of this undesirable growth would not pay harvesting costa. In any improve ment program, stand improvement must be one of the first considerations. The initial cuts will be least valuable, but later cuts will yield more and more profits as the more valuable species mature. Volume of Timber—The total volume o f sawtimber in Eighth District states is estimated at 112 billion board feet, nearly two-thirds o f which is hardwood. One-third of the total is in Arkansas, one-fourth in Mississippi, and one-eighth each in Tennessee and Kentucky. Only 15 per cent of the sawtimber is found in Indiana, Illinois, and Mis souri combined.* An indication of value of forests and extent to which some have been depleted can be obtained by comparing forest acreage and volume of timber. Missouri, for instance, with 22 per cent of forest laud in Eighth District states, has only 6 per cent of estimated sawtimber in the district. T w o states, Arkansas and Mississippi, with two-fifths of the timbered land, have more than three-fifths of the sawtimber in district states. Together, they have 85 per cent o f the softwood sawtimber. Understocked Forest Land—The lack of saw timber volume in the Eighth District becomes understandable in view of the tremendous acreages in district states classified as seedling, sapling, poorly stocked and denuded areas. In all, 31 mil lion acres are classified in these categories, repre senting 37 per cent of all forest land. Seedling and sapling areas consist of land with at least 40 per cent coverage o f commercial species less than five inches in diameter. Poorly stocked and denuded land is a catch-all classification, including any land that cannot be classified as seedling and sapling or better. TA BLE IV t Z Z D H M O . SAPLIM O AMD POOR LY STOCKED AREAS OF C O M M E R C IA L FOREST LAND IM EIGH TH D IS T R IC T S T A T E S ' Poorly Seedling Stocked Total Com meret*! SapHny Denuded Forest Ares * Area * Mitsinippi .. Tennessee K entuck y_ (Thousand! of Acre*) 2,097 2.127 .19,928 3,660 10,886 .18,837 2,995 1.021 .15.868 77! 2,141 .11.850 1,576 1,150 .11.694 424 747 . 3,358 794 806 . 3,319 Seedling Sapling Area 11% 58 6 18 1 0 22 24 Poorly Stocked Denuded Area 11% 19 19 7 14 13 24 1 5 22 18,878 12,317 ------- ------------------- 84,854 ------------DhtWct state* * Forest status a* of January. 1945, Reappraisal Project, U.S. Forest Service, July. 1946. 'A rea, with at least 40 per cent of area covered with commerctal specie* less than 5 inches diameter, and less than two cords per acre nt tree* above 5 inches in diameter. ' Land* that do not qualify as sawtimber, pole, seedling or saphng M . tM In addition to sapling, poorly stocked and de nuded forest areas, another 20 per ceht o f total ! Forest Service estimates. As a rule, these estimates are somewhat "Bailer th** estimate* made by the American Forestry Aasoaatton. In district state* the latter averaged about 9 per cent above the former with gtnatctt vmrtttioea fa Hhao**, Adamata, *nd V L M O HR WO A D S F W O OU E F A D O D N OT O O O C M E C L F RS LNS N O M R !A O E T A D n_m *s V aag FE tT C U te FtET EtCHTH HSTM CT STATES _ 1 ----- !----- ------ ? ARKANSAS MSSSSMV) MSSOURt TEMMESSEE KENTUCKY MOAHA tLLtNCXS forest land in this region is classified as pole tim ber, too small for sawtimber but large enough for cordwood (5-inch diameter and larger). This leaves only 43 per cent of the forest area, or 36 million acres, classified as sawtimber area in the seven district states. More than three-fourths of forest lands in Mis souri are classified as sapling areas or poorly stocked and denuded areas. Nearly half the forest land in Illinois and one-third in Indiana falls in this classification. Between 20 and 25 per cent of forest land in other district states is classified as having smaller than pole-sized timber. Proper manage ment over a long period of time will be necessary to bring these areas into sawtimber production. G R O W T H AN D D R A IN Growth of all timber in Eighth District states was about 2.6 billion cubic feet in 1944. Saw timber growth was 6.2 billion board feetl Fifty per cent of all timber growth and 63 per cent of the sawtimber growth took place in Arkansas and Mississippi. Nearly 40 per cent of the sawtimber growth was softwood, but only 28 per cent of all 3 Sawtimber includes trees at least 10 inches in diameter in the four taken 4% feet from the ground. Page 137 timber, including pole timber and sapling growth, was softwood. Growth on a per-acre basis was highest in Mis sissippi, where the sawtimber growth, including TABLE Sawtimber cutting exceeded sawtimber growth by higher percentages than over all cutting ex ceeded total growth. In the three Mid-South states, Mississippi, Tennessee, and Arkansas, sawtimber growth was 63, 69, and 70 per cent, respectively, of TA B LE VI v C U R R E N T A N N U A L G R O W T H O F A L L T IM B E R A N D S A W T IM B E R ON C O M M E R C IA L F O R E S T L A N D IN E IG H T H D I S T R IC T S T A T E S * D R A IN F R O M A L L T I M B E R A N D S A W T IM B E R C O M M E R C IA L F O R E S T L A N D IN E IG H T H D I S T R IC T S T A T E S . 1944 * \!t Tun her Arkansas ................ Missouri ................ Mississippi ............ Tennessee .............. Kentucky ................ Indiana .................. Illinois .................... (MiHion 670 34! 667 247 475 137 104 Cnbic Feet) 332 338 309 32 403 264 192 55 416 59 136 1 104 ...... District states ..... 2,641 1,892 * Preliminary Data, Reappraisal 1946. 749 Project, (MiHion 1,929 388 1,866 847 638 298 208 Board Feet) 743 1,186 351 37 962 904 621 226 555 83 296 2 207 1 6,174 3,735 2.439 U .S. Forest Service, July. both hard and soft woods, averaged 118 board feet per acre. Growth rate for softwood (5 per cent) was higher than for hardwood (2.5 to 3 per cent) in Arkansas. Missouri, with a large acreage of sap ling and denuded areas, averaged only 21 board feet of growth per acre of sawtimber on all forest land. Likewise, total growth of 18 cubic feet per acre in Missouri was lower than in any other of the Eighth District states. A t the present rate of cutting, drain (which refers to timber cut and destroyed) exceeds annual growth in most areas. Sawtimber growth was only two-thirds as much as drain, but growth of all timber nearly equaled drain in district states in 1944. In that year growth was 88 and 79 per cent of drain, respectively, in Arkansas and Tennessee. Total softwood growth in Arkansas in 1944 ex ceeded total softwood drain in spite o f the fact that sawtimber cut was greater than growth. This indi cates large numbers o f immature trees. A similar situation existed in Mississippi in the case of hard woods in 1944. If total softwood growth can be maintained in excess of total drain over a period of years, annual growth of sawtimber should increase gradually. Excess of hardwood growth over drain is not necessarily desirable unless the growth con sists of high-quality trees. Cutting of poor-qualitv timber and low value species usually is not profita ble at normal prices, and growth o f such timber may do little more than intensify management problems. Total growth of all timber in Illinois was about two-thirds as much as total drain for all purposes in 1945. In Indiana, total growth about equaled drain. Page 138 A rkansas' ..... ...... Missouri* .............. Mississippi' .......... Tennessee* ............ Kentucky* ............ Indiana* ................ I llin o is ' - ..........158 ___ ON _______ Sawtimber * ( Million Cubic Feet) (M illion Board 761 482 279 2,741 1,485 .104 289 15 594 541 7 )5 359 346 2,948 1,334 3 !! 205 106 1,222 836 262 237 25 110 646 137 137 26! 261 158 ___ 224 224 Feet) 1,156 S3 1,614 386 64 ----------—. District state!*.__ 2,638 1.867 771 8,700 S.327 3,373 ' Include* timber cut (or commodities, destroyed by fire, wind and * Pines 9 inches diameter at breast height and larger, hardwoods 13 inches d b.h and larger in 3 Mid South states and 10 inches d.b.h. and ' Estimates of Central States Forest Experiment Station, Columbus, Ohio Based on regional data from Reappraisal of Forest Sttaation. ' Drain for district states = 3 1 cu. ft. of all timber per acre and 103 bd. ft- of sawtimber per acre of commercial forest land. the annual'drain in 1944. Growth of softwood sawtimbcr in Arkansas, however, lacked only 6 per cent of equaling drain in 1944. Fire Protection—Fire damage accounts to a con siderable extent for the low growth rate of forests in many areas. In Mississippi the five-year average, 1941-45, of forest land burned was 3.7 million acres. The loss of timber from fire in the United States totaled 460 million cubic feet, 1934-43, which is equivalent to 4 per cent of all timber cut for com modity use. Adequate protection would be of con siderable value in decreasing the excess of drain over growth and especially in facilitating growth of young stock and in reducing the number of cull trees. In Mississippi, for instance, from 1941 to 1945, 22 per cent of unprotected areas were burned, compared with only 2 per cent of protected areas. T A B L E V II T I M B E R A C R E A G E H A V I N G F IR E P R O T E C T IO N IN E IG H T H D I S T R I C T S T A T E S . 1945 Protected ' fthoutpnda of acres) Arkansas ...................... ............. Missouri ............... ..................... 11,000* 3,693* Tennessee .................................. ........... s!500' Kentucky .................................. ........... 1.671 * Indiana ...................................... ........... 1,581 * Illinois .......- ......................................... 1,490* P fC e n t o f . Forest Land Protected 55% 1^ 46 District states - ........................ 30,935 36 * AH acreage classified as under some form of protection. No measure * Mississippi State Forest Service. What Forest and Forest Industries Mean to Mississippi. * Tennessee State Forestry Division and American Forestry Associs* tion. The Forest Resoorces of Tennessee. ' R Brnndage, Purdoe University. ____ *Illinois Technical Forestry Association, A Plan io f F tfe**? * * Illinois, Jannary, 1947. Only 36 per cent of the forest land in Eighth District states received any Are protection in 1945, and much of that was inadequate. Only 14 per cent of Kentucky forest land received protection and less than one-fifth of the forest was protected in Missouri. Arkansas, with 55 per cent of forest area protected, had the highest percentage under protection. About 45 per cent of the forests were protected in Indiana, Illinois, and Tennessee, and 40 per cent of those in Mississippi. CHARACTER OF U M B ER CUTTING PRACTtCES ON COMMERCtAL FOREST LANDS A more intensive educational program needs to be launched to convince farmers and other timber owners that burning pastures and woodland is not an economical method of improving early pastures or of clearing land to make plowing easier the foliowing year. Considerable areas are burned as a result of firing pastures and woodlands merely to drive out game. Management Practices— Another method of in creasing forest yield and balancing drain and growth is intensification and improvement of man agement practices. Cutting methods on 70 per cent of the forest land in Eighth District states are classi fied as poor or destructive. Poor cutting practices leave land with only limited means of reproduction, without any merchantable timber, and with but few trees, which are generally of low-quality species. Destructive cutting is even worse than poor cutting. Only 15 per cent of forest land in district states was rated with good and high-order cutting. Good cutting improves stands, but only in high-order cutting is maximum production and improvement of stand and quality achieved. High-order cutting is practiced to an appreciable extent only in the three Mid-South states, Arkansas, Mississippi, and Tennessee, where 15, 4, and 2 per cent of the wood lands, respectively, rated high-order cutting. Fair and good cutting in Kentucky, however, exceeded the total fair, good, and high-order cutting in all other district states. Large timber tracts (larger than 50,000 acres) generally were under better management than the smaller timber tracts in the three Mid-South states. Arkansas, Mississippi and Tennessee. Generally, more nonfarm-owned tracts rated fair or better cut ting practices than farm-owned woodlots in this area. In other words, commercial lumber com panies have placed sizable areas under good forest management and on a sustained yield basis. Eightysix per cent of the privately owned large holdings in Arkansas are being operated under good or highorder management. In contrast to the condition in the Mid-South, the 0 20 40 60 80 )00 tmpties intensive sitvicutture, maintenance and improvement cutting S 3 f* s t steps in improving stand, cutting trees that witt permit further improvement. Cutting that teaves tand with timited means of reproduction, often causes deterioration of species, poor stocking. Leaves no timber vatues nor any means of timber reproduction S0U0CE: PWELMtMAWY OM * ^ RE*PPRA<SAt. OF THE F0HCST SmjATtOX, four northern states of the district have a higher proportion of farm-owned woodland than nonfarm woodland under fair or better management. This is accounted for by the fact that a higher proportion of nonfarm woodland in the four northern states probably is in smaller holdings that do not lend themselves as well to sustained yield management as do farm woodlots and larger holdings. P O T E N T IA L F O R E S T P R O D U C T IO N The possibilities are good for sustained timber production in Eighth District states despite the fact that current annual drain of sawtimber is approxi mately half-again as large as growth. Potential sawtimber growth estimates made by various state agencies in the district indicate that good manage ment practices could triple the current rate of growth. These estimates were made on the basis of results obtained on experimental woodlots and a number of typical farm woodlots for which data were recorded. This productive capacity, of course, cannot be attained overnight. Since the annual growth rate depends to a considerable extent upon the volume Page 139 of standing timber, some tracts wiH require many years to build up stands to a high growth rate. However, this does not mean that all cutting must cease on such tracts. Understocked stands require some cuts to remove the defective, crooked, and low-quality trees of both sawlog and smaller sizes. Each year the cut has been approximately equal to the growth. During this nine-year period under sustained yield management, 110,536 board feet of logs, 273 cords of pulpwood, 153 cords of fuelwood, and 288 fence posts have been cut from this 40-acre tract. T A B L E IX TA B L E V I I I PRESENT TIM B E R GROW TH AND P O T E N T IA L TIM B E R GROW TH UNDER R EASON ABLY GOOD M ANAGEMENT IN E IG H T H D IST R IC T STATES * Arkansas ...................... - .............. ...... Missouri ............. ............... . —....... Mississippi -------— ...................... — .. Tennessee .................. ......................... Kentucky — ..................................... Indiana — .................. ................- ____ Illinois ........................................... Potential Present Sawtimber Sawtimber Growth Growth * Good Management (B d . Ft. Per A cre) (B d. Ft. Per A cre) 97 250-300 * 21 63- 84 * US 300 * 72 216* . SS 140' 89 192 * 63 250 * District states - ............ - ............ ...... 73 — * Good management includes Are protection, protection from grazing, selective cutting and a fair stand. * Preliminary Data, Reappraisal Project, U .S . Forest Service, July, 1946. * State Departments of Forestry o f respective states. * American Forestry Association and State Forestry Division, The Forest Resources o f Tennessee, 1946. ' Based on University of Kentucky estimates, cir. 404, 1945. * R . Brundage, Purdue University. In fact, stands in most forest regions can be built up in volume at the same time that substantial cuts are made. Some foresters recommend a cut ting every five years for best response even on average farm woodlots, but cuts should take less than growth anticipated in the next five years. Cuts would increase progressively in size from half the growth on light stands to 100 per cent of the growth on heavy stands. As indicated by their low-producing woodlots, farmers are possibly the worst offenders against proper forest management practices. Their hold ings are small, yet in the aggregate they own 46 per cent of all district states' woodland, and they need to increase their income. But the question arises, "D oes it pay the small woodlot owner to practice good forest management?" The following case studies of small farm-size woodlots provide an answer. The "Farm Forestry F orty" in the Crossett Ex perimental Forest near Crossett, Arkansas, is an excellent demonstration of the possibilities of loblolly and shortleaf pine woodlots in the southern part of the district. W hen made a part of the Crossett Experimental Forest in 1937, this 40-acre tract contained a stand of shortleaf-loblolly pine and hardwood which is fairly representative of the average-to-better tracts in the area. The Experi ment Station began cutting over the tract, follow ing sound forestry practices, so that only those trees which should be harvested were removed Page !40 NINE YEAR CUTTING RECORD ON CROSSETT FARM F O R E STR Y TRACT 1938-43 Average Logs (bd. ft.)....... — - ..il 1,955 Pulpwood (cords) - ___ 35.9 ___ 20.7 Fuelwood (cords) Posts (number) —------29 1944 13,904 18.3 10.3 35 194S 13,144 1S.3 12.0 42 1946 11,760 24.2 6.6 36 40-ACRE ,<!?*** 9 Years 110,536 273.4 153.2 288 N IN E YEAR RECORD O P STUMPAGE. L A B O R AND EQUIPM ENT RETURNS ON CROSSETT 40-ACRE FARM FOR E STR Y TR AC T Value delivered-------------- $573.99 — Stumpage value ..... — .... 143.38 Stumpage value per acre3.58 $607.62 220.04 5.50 $603.73 196.55 4.91 $678.32 $5,333.60 227.92 1,504.79 5.70 37.61 age deducted) — ........ — 0.56* 0 92 0.98 1.09 ............ * Computed by using average man hours per umt required for the 1943-46 period. Source: U.S. Forestry Service, Southern Forest Experiment StaUon, Cutting Records Farm Forestry 40. This represents an annual cut of more than 300 board feet per acre of logs alone. These products had a stumpage value of $1,505, or $4.18 per acre, per year. Moreover, the owner could have received, in addition to the above stump age value, two months of profitable employment annually for cutting and delivering the products to market. In addition to the above income from the tract, the stand of timber has improved and the quality of the forest is far better today than when the cutting started. Low-grade red gum has been re moved and replaced by more valuable species. Thus not only is substantial income being received from this acreage, but the prospective future pro duction and ultimate value of the stand has been increased. A farm in Jo Daviess County, Illinois, serves as a good example of woodlot possibilities in the hard wood area of the district.* This woodlot was pas tured for 30 years prior to 1932. It was welt stocked with a stand of mature trees, consisting of red, black, and white oak, as the major species. Before the first selective cutting was made in 1940, only dead trees and a few large trees for sawlogs had been removed. The 1940 cutting removed seven cords of fuelwood per acre, with a total value of $6 per cord. By 1945, new growth on this tract had amounted to 1,332 board feet per acre, or 266 board feet per acre annually. A t local 1945 stumpage prices, the value o f annual per acre growth was $&74. 4 From data obtained by Illinois Extension Service. The two case studies presented, and the possible growth-rate estimates given, represent on!y a the oretical potential that could be obtained. This growth rate for the district proper is not likely to be reached for many years, if at all. Still, it indi cates the possibility of expanding forestry products in the area. And, it might be noted, there is no great need to increase our output by 200 per cent overnight. In the first place, it is not necessary to triple or even double the present growth rate to satisfy cur- rent needs for timber production. If good manage ment practices were placed into effect on one-half of the forest acres and the annual growth rate were doubled, the average growth rate for all forest land would rise to 109.5 board feet per acre and approxi mately equal the current rate of drain. T o reach even this desirable growth rate, however, educa tional institutions, state forestry departments, and others interested in the future of the timber indus try have a big job in bringing into effect good forest management practices on the small woodlots which still make up most of our forest-covered land. SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS 1. Forestry is and should continue to be an important industry in the Eighth Federal Reserve District, since forests cover 43 per cent of the total land area, and most of this forest acreage is not suited for cropping. Hardwood trees make up the bulk of timber in the district. Pine is important only in the three southern states. 2. Ninety-one per cent of forest land in the dis trict states is owned by private individuals, divided they are doing a good job of management on a sustained yield basis. However, only 15 per cent of all forest land in the district states, including all national forest acreage, is well managed. 5. Successive cuts of better trees have caused deterioration of species and quality. One of the first things to consider in terms of forestry improve ment, therefore, must be selective cutting for improvement of stands. nearly equally between farm and nonfarm owners, 6. Sawtimber growth in the district states was with only 9 per cent state and Federally owned. Thus private individuals will determine to a great only two-thirds as much as drain in 1944. How ever, total growth of all timber was 95 per cent of drain. An excess of drain over growth for a period of years will deplete timber resources at an extent the future of timber production. 3. A total of 31 million acres, or 37 per cent, of the forest land in the district states is classified as sapling, poorly stocked, or denuded land. Only 36 million acres, or 43 per cent, of the forest land is increasing rate. 7. Adequate fire protection is an important factor in balancing growth and drain. According to 1945 good management thus will be necessary before data, only 36 per cent of the district states' forest areas are receiving fire protection of any kind. In more than half o f our district forests can produce Mississippi, areas with fire protection had less than high-quality timber. one-tenth the fire damage of nonprotected areas. classified as sawtimber. Considerable time and If reasonably good manage ment were in effect on all district forest land, the present rate of timber growth could be tripled. 4. Cutting practices on 70 per cent of the forest land in district states were rated poor or destruc tive. Large lumber companies in the southern part o f the district have many timber tracts on which 8. Under intensive management timber tracts of 200 to 300 acres can provide one man profitable year-round employment. Stumpage value alone of timber tracts of 1,000 acres and over will yield under intensive management a reasonably good retire ment income. Donald L. Henry Clifton B. Luttrell Page Survey of Current Conditions The general level of business activity has continued to advance from the low point of the summer slump reached in August. Output of manufactured goods has increased considerably, reflecting among other factors the resumption of inventory accumulation due in large part to the maintenance of consumer buying well in excess of the 1946 dollar volume. Construction activity in October held at about the postwar peak level of September as generally favorable weather condi tions permitted the extension of construction work later in the year than usual. The above sources of demand, supported chiefly by a record income level but with the expanded use of credit becoming in creasingly important, together with Government expenditures for domestic and foreign consumption, continue to exert strong inflationary pressures on the general price level. As a factor in the price situation, the current level of consumers' disposable income, which aver aged $179 billion on a seasonally adjusted annua! basis in the third quarter, assumes major sig nificance when related to the quantity of goods available. Disposable income has increased more than the physical production of goods. Thus, while disposable income in the first nine months of this year, on an adjusted annual basis, was 2.5 times as large as in 1939, the physical volume of manufac tured goods produced, as measured by the Federal Reserve index, was less than twice as large as in the prewar year. In the same span of years, private domestic investment in capital equipment, construc IN D U ST R Y C O N S U M P T IO N O P E L E C T R I C I T Y Oct., Oct., 1947 Sept., Oct., 1946 1947 1947 (K .W .H . No. of Cus O ct 46 K W H . K .W .H . Sept.'47 in thous.) tomers* K .W H. ^VBWV!!1 .... 40 1 ^ Q 9.101 6.635 R 4- 4 4- 42 9,451 4,783 3,681 — 3 4,632 4 - 26 Little Rock.. .. 35 52,780 56,523 R + 5 — 2 55,237 ... 80 5,113 4,255 5.381 4- 26 31 -t- 5 4-346 6,240 1,569 6.995 Pine Bluff_... 23 4- 12 65,457 67,433 R + 7 70,356 St. L ouis..... ... 99 4- 4 143,474 140,096 R 4- 6 152,052 Totals .... ...308 + 9 R — Revised. L O A D S IN T E R C H A N G E D F O R 25 R A IL R O A D S A T ST. L O U IS O ct.,'47 125,744 Sept.,'47 116,342 O ct.,'46 X ov.,'47 X ov.,'46 10 m o ; . '47 lO m o s .'46 132,959 35,371 33,888 1,249.451 Y.229*324* C R U D E O I L P R O D U C T IO N — D A I L Y ( I o thousands O ct..'47 Sept.,'47 O ct..'46 o i bbls ) ...... 83.2 82.1 78.5 ...... 172.6 173.7 205.1 ...... 17.1 17.8 18.8 25.5 30.4 Kentucky ... ..... ...... 25.6 .....-298.5 299.1 332.8 Total ........ P*gt 142 AVERAGE Oct. .'47 comp. wttH O ct.,'46 Sept. .'47 4 - 6% 4- 1% — 1 — 16 — 4 — 9 - 0 — 16 - 0 . — 10 tion and inventions increased more than three times and net foreign investments more than nine times. The use of private credit by business and agri culture has expanded considerably in recent weeks and has become an important factor in the price outlook. In addition, the full effect of the expira tion of consumer credit restrictions as of November 1 has yet to be evidenced in the trend of con sumer borrowings. If the rate of private borrowing continues to accelerate, commodity prices will be subjected to additional upward pressure. EMPLOYMENT Contrary to the usual seasonal pattern, nonagricultural employment in both the nation and the Eighth District increased between September and October. Nationally, employment has never been higher except for August, 1947. In this district, employment was at a peacetime high, although it still was slightly below the wartime peak of 1943. Nationally, unemployment in October was lower than at any time since V-J Day, and was only onefifth as large as the 1940 average. Claims for both regular unemployment compensation and service men's readjustment allowances have shown a marked drop during the past year. The 14 per cent decline in unemployment between October, 1946 and October, 1947 was due principally to a decrease in the number of unemployed veterans. The un employment rate for veterans, however, is still higher than that for non-veterans. Between July and September, 1947, total nonagricultural employment increased in each of the five major district labor market areas. Increases in manufacturing, construction, and trade employ ment more than offset decreases in service, mining, and Government. The largest numerical increases occurred in St. Louis and Memphis, while Little Rock registered the greatest percentage gain. During the past year, all major district cities except Memphis have had moderate gains in both total and manufacturing employment. In Memphis large decreases in employment in Government estab lishments more than offset increases in other lines so that total employment showed a net decline of about 1,000. Between September, 1946 and Septem ber. 1947, total employment increased approximately 26,000 in St. Louis. 7.000 in Evansville, 3,000 in Louisville, and 1,000 in Little Rock. The very remarkable gains in employment that have been made in this district are evident when current and prewar figures are compared. In the five major cities, 284,000 more people were em ployed in September, 1947 than in April, 1940— a gain of about 31 per cent. Some 130,000 more people were employed in manufacturing— a gain of almost 50 per cent. INDUSTRY Industrial activity in the Eighth District in October increased more than seasonally over the previous month and was appreciably ahead of a year ago. Gains were registered in total industrial power consumption, in the production of basic raw materials, steel and lumber, and in manufacturing operations. Construction activity decreased slightly, although residential construction was up in volume. Total industrial power consumption in the major cities of the district in October showed a 6 per cent increase over the previous month and was about 9 per cent larger than in October a year ago. When adjusted for the longer work month in October, however, consumption was not much higher than in September. Moderate gains over September were registered in all major cities except Little Rock, where power consumption dropped 3 per cent. Louisville was the only city in which power con sumption was less in October, 1947 than in the same month of 1946. Manufacturing— Although due in part to sea sonal factors and to a longer work month, the general trend of manufacturing activity in October was upward. Increases in the month were indicated in basic steel and lumber production, in output of automobiles and parts, machinery, nonferrous metal products, and meat packing. Output of whiskey, food products, and paper and allied products de clined somewhat. Operations in the steel industry in the St. Louis area in October were at 67 per cent of capacity, up from the 63 per cent level of last month. In October, 1946, operations were scheduled at 5/ per ccnt of capacity. Lumber production in October was maintained at a high level according to preliminary estimates. Reporting southern hardwood mills operated at 95 per cent of capacity— fractionally higher than the previous month and at the same level as in October a vear ago. Average weekly production of southern pine mills was 5 per cent larger than in the previous month and considerably larger than in October, 1946. Due to the grain-saving program, only 6 of the 63 distilleries in Kentucky were in operation at the end o f October as compared with 38 the previous month. Supplies of whiskey in storage are believed to be sufHcient to meet requirements for several years, although some shortages of neutral spirits used for blending are reported. Whiskey produc tion in Kentucky in September was 5.5 million gal lons, a substantial increase over the 3.8 million gallons of the previous month and the 3.6 million gallons produced in September, 1946. District shoe production in September was esti mated at 8.3 million pairs, a slight gain over August and substantially above September, 1946. Average monthly production for the first nine months was 7.9 million pairs as compared with 7.4 million pairs in the same period last year. Meat packing operations in the St. Louis area in October increased sharply over September and were at a substantially higher level than in October, 1946. A total of 552,000 animals were slaughtered under Federal inspection in October, compared with 443,000 in the previous month and 388,500 in October of last year. Moderate increases over last month were registered in the slaughter of cattle, calves, and sheep, but hog slaughter increased about 43 per cent. Construction— The value of building permits issued in major district cities in October was $9.4 million, about $1 million less than in the previous month. The value of permits in all cities except Louisville decreased considerably, with all the de cline centered in nonresidential construction. New residential awards were 55 per cent higher, on a value basis, than in September, with St. Louis and Louisville showing substantial increases and MemWHOLESALING Data furnished by Bureau of Census U. S. Dept, of Commerce* Oct. 31, 1947^ Oct., 1947 Sept.,'47 O ct.,'46 4- 7% 4- 9 4-12 4-13 4-12 4- 3 4-14 4-12 — 13% 4-12 — 19 4- 1 — 3 — 1 4- 9 — 6 Drugs and Chemicais.. 4-23 — 9 -)-27 +26 — 9 4-12 4- 7 CONSTRUCTION B U I L D I N G P E R M IT S (M onth of October) 1947" " l 946 Evansville ........Little R ock.......... Louisville ---------Memphis — ........ St. L o u is ..... ...... 106 124 318 960 337 i M3 O c t Totals-------1,845 r.l',650 Sept. Totals 64 69 207 630 260 1,230 1,119 1947^°" 1946 1947 **1946 $ 227 714 2.599 2,912 1,919 (8,371 (8.468 $ 135 382 720 1,532 1,239 (4,008 (4.197 101 261 72 181 321 936 984 1947^° 1946 31 89 ( 137 5 8 108 158 45 71 69 166 139 212 442 583 258_________ ________ 786 (1,038 ( 742 794 (2,171 (1,327 Page 143 TR AD E DEPARTM ENT STORES Stocky ^Stock Net Sales October/47 10m os.'47 Oct. 31. 47 to s&nic comp, with comp&rcd with Sept.,'47 Oct.,'46 period '46 Oct. 31,'46 Ft- Smith, A rk.....4- 4% Little Rock, Ark - 4 - 3 Quincy, 111. — — 4-17 St. Louis, M o ...+ 2 E- St. Louis, H 1.+ 2 S^rin^fteld.^Mo. - 4 - 9 *A11 ^)ther cities....4- 8 8 t h F .R .D is t r ic t -+ 5 — 6% 4- 1 — 3 4- 7 + 6 4- 7 4* 6 +59 — 5 + 5 + 4 + 5 Jan. 1, to Oct. 31. 1947 1946 — 15% - 0 — 5 + 6 + 1 + 1 + 1 3.39 3.94 3.76 3.11 3.94 3.32 3.32 3.92 4.59 4.42 3.36 4.87 4.07 4.06 +23 + 9 +16 + 3 — 11% — 1 - 0 +15 + 9 + 9 + 7 +88 + 1 + 1 + 5 + 6 3 34 3.54 3.30 3.47 4.58 4.48 4.30 4.27 *E1^ Dorado, ^FayettevUle, Pine B]g(T, ^Ark.^ A]ton, Hanisbutg, JackTenn. ^ Includes St. Louis, Mo., East St. Louis and Belleville. I!!. Trading days: Oct., 1947— 2 7 ; Sept., 1947— 2 5 : O ct, 1946— 27. Fort Smith..Little Rock. .. 5 IN D E X E S OF 53% 55 §t. 55 31 8 th F .R .D is t. 5 5 DEPARTM ENT Louis........ STORE 36 SALES AND 8th Federal Reserve District Oct., Sept., 1947 1947 Stocks, Unadjusted* ................... .....- 330 308 307 274 64< 59 60 57 38^ STOCKS A ug., 1947 340 337 273 246 264 307 273 250 O ct, 1946 313 293 295 263 'D a ily Average 1935 3 9 = 1 0 0 . * End o f Month Average 1935-39=100. S P E C IA L T Y S T O R E S Stocks Net Sales O ct.,'47 ^ 10m os..'47 O ct. 3!,'47 ^Stock ^Oct.*3!° Sept.,'47 Oct.,'46 period"'46 O ct*3 L '4 6 1947 1946 M en's Furnishings....... + 1% — 4% 4 -2 % +20% 2.92 4.87 +15 + 7 4-14 3.91 6.18 Boots and Shoes......... — 4 ^Percentage^of^ accounts and notes receivable outstanding October 1, Men's Furnishings ................ 52% Boots and Shoes...................... 49% Trading days: October, 1947— 2 7 ; Sept., 1947— 2 5 ; October. 1946— 27. R E T A IL F U R N IT U R E S T O R E S O c t . .1947 O ct.3 1 , 1947 R a tio o f S<-nt.'47 Oct.'46 Se?t.3n.'47 0 ct..H .'4 6 O c t '47 O ct.'46 St. Louis A rea'....4-18% 4-35% 4- 4% 4 -22 % 52% 45% St. Louts . . . . . . . . . 4 - 17 4-34 4- 4 4-22 53 44 Loutsvtlle Area'....— 1 4-3 S — 1 4- 2 26 32 Louisville - ..... - 4 - 1 4-38 - 0 4- 1 24 31 Memphis ............- — 3 — 10 4- 2 4-20 24 30 Little Rock ..........— 5 — 2 4- 7 + 9 28 39 Springfield ............— 7 — 21 * * * * 8th District Total'-)-12 4-26 -)-3 4-14 40 41 __* N ot shown separately due to insufficient coverage, but included in Eighth District totals. ' Includes St. Louis, M issouri; East St. Louis and Alton, Illinois. * Includes Louisville. K entucky; and New Albany, Indiana. ' In addition to above cities, includes stores in Blytheville, Fort Smith and Pine Bluff. Arkansas; Hopkinsville, Owensboro. Kentucky; Green ville, Greenwood. Mississippi; Hannibal and Springfield, M issouri; and PE R C E N T A G E D IS T R IB U T IO N O F F U R N IT U R E SALES O c t . ,'47 Cash Sales ........- ..................................- ........ 18% Credit Sales — ................ — ............ ................. 82 Total Sales ______ ____ ______ _________ 100 Page 144 Sept., '47 O ct., '46 17% 83 100 23% 77 100 phis and Little Rock remaining about the same as in the previous month. The value of construction contracts of all types awarded in the Eighth District in the third quar ter was we!! above the first two quarters of the year and higher than in any quarter of last year, largely due to increases in nonresidential construc tion. Residential construction contracts for the third quarter totaled less than in the second quar ter, but were above the first quarter of 1947 and the third quarter of 1946. TRADE October sales volume at Eighth District report ing department stores registered a gain of 5 per cent over September and was 5 per cent larger than in October, 1946. Preliminary reports for the first half of November indicate the year-to-date gain of 6 per cent will be maintained during the month. On a seasonally adjusted basis, the index of department store sales was 308 per cent of the 1935-39 average, a considerable drop from the alltime peak of 337 per cent attained during Septem ber, 1947. At those stores reporting by departments, the largest sales gains, percentagewise, still were occur ring in the hard goods divisions. W omen's wear departments showed varied experience. Sales vol ume of the major items of wearing apparel was vir tually unchanged from the comparable month a year ago. but other items were sold in smaller vol ume. According to the trade, smaller sales of women's wear reflected unseasonable weather and some consumer resistance to higher prices. The fact that prices are being considered to a greater degree is evidenced by above average sales volume gains in basement store merchandise. At the end of October, inventories of reporting department stores were 12 per cent over those at the end of September and 3 per cent more than on October 31, 1946. W omen's apparel store sales volume in October was 8 per cent less than in September, but was 11 per cent above October, 1946. Inventories at the end of October, in terms of value, were 47 per cent more than on September 30, and were 21 per cent above those held on October 31, 1946. At men's wear stores in October there was little change in sales volume from both the previous month and the comparable month last year. The "desperate buying" which characterized the imme diate postwar months has eased and demand has been steady. There have been no significant style changes in men's clothing and few materials neces sary to production of men's wear are in short sap- ply Inventories at the end o f October were 5 per cent and 20 per cent greater, respectively, than the end of the previous month and the compara ble date !ast year. At reporting furniture stores, sales during O cto ber were 12 per cent over September and 26 per cent more than in October, 1946. Inventories on October 31 were 3 per cent more than on September 30 and 14 per cent more than on October 31, 1946. PRICES W H OLESALE P R IC E S IN During the four weeks ending November 19, private credit continued to expand sharply at the weekly reporting banks in this district. Total loans of these banks reached $960 million on November 19, up $175 million from the corresponding date last year, and up $30 million in the month. The increase in the past four weeks was largely seasonal in character— for example, in the like period in 1946 the rise was almost identical in amount. Taking the period since midyear as a whole, however, loans have expanded much more rapidly than usual, ris ing almost $200 million between July 2 and Novem ber 19, 1947, in con tr^ t to a gain of some $120 million in the like period last year. In the past four weeks, commercial, industrial and agricultural loans at the reporting banks rose $39 million. Real estate loans gained $1 million. Loans to purchase or carry securities, loans to banks and "other" loans showed declines. For the 12 months ending November 19, the loan increase reflected gains o f $160 million in commercial, in dustrial and agricultural loans, $28 million in real estate loans, and $24 million in "other" loans (mostly consumer credit), offset by a decline o f $37 million in security loans. Total investments of the reporting banks also increased appreciably in the period between October U N IT E D (1926 = 100) Oct.,'47 Sept.,'47 O ct.,'46 AH Commodities..— 158.5 157.4 134.1 Farm Product*.... 189.7 186.4 165.3 F o o d s __- _____ - 177.8 179.3 157.9 Other ----------------- -- 139.9 138.2 115.8 Sept!,'47 Sept.. Oct., 1946 1&7 of dollars) 1947 15,861 gl Dorado, Ark.— * 20,009 ^ 18,278 $ 35,342 37,226 jyrt Smith. Ark .... 9,112 7,600 13,149 Helena, Arx............. 113,966 121,009 Little Rock, Ark.— 135,632 34,148 26,828 39.368 Pine Bluff, Ark.... 10.328 10,884 11.814 Texarkana, Ark. Tex. 18.274 22,079 23,909 98,784 118,378 135.144 25,636 25,790 29,932 84.978 95,07! 111,864 -vansvtHe, Ind. — 418.760 427^ 508,749 LwMtville, Ky. - — 23.691 22,113 30.262 Owensboro. Ky. —12.766 13,890 !S,024 Ptdatah, Ky. ------18.707 17,709 31,589 5tenviHe. Miss — 8.987 9,329 10,427 & pe Girardeau, Mo 7.589 7,087 7,808 Hannibal. Mo. — 43.658 43,983 52.408 Itnerson City, M o 1,255.264 1,516,453 1,355.116 s t Louis, M o.— 9,239 9.719 10.130 §*daHa. Mo. ______ 56,880 59.820 63.926 SpdngHeM. Mo. — 21,246 16,455 27,379 jMksoa. Team. —— 543.352 423J9S 699,153 T o t * b __________ 43.S3i.677 t2.M9.S42 $2.866,S68 O c t,'4 7 comp, with Sept..'4 7 O ct.,'46 O ct.,'46 4* 0.7% + 1 8 .2 % 4-14.8 4 - 12.6 4 - 20.8 4 - 1.8 — 0.8 4 - 1.2 United States — 163.8 St. Louis_____ 165.4 M e m p h is __— 169.0 June 15, 1947 S ept 15, S ept 15, *47 Comp, with 1946 Jane 15, 47 S ept 15,'46 145.9 4 - 4% 4-12% 142.9 4- 6 4-16 146.2 4- 5 4-16 157.1 155.6 160.6 R E T A IL F O O D P R IC E S Statistics S ept 15, (1 93 5 -3 9 = 1 00) 1947 U. S. (51 citie s)- 203.5 S t Louis — - — 215.9 Little Rock — 201.3 L o u is v ille ____ 198.2 M e m p h is _____ 220.5 *N ot Available. A ug. 15, 1947 196.5 205.0 195.1 189.7 213.5 S ept 15, S ept 15,'47 Comp, with 1946 A ug. 15,'47 S ept 15,'46 174.1 174.5 4-4*4* 44- 185.3 4-17% 4-24 4% 5 3 4 3 4-19 BANKING C H A N G E S IN P R IN C I P A L A S S E T S A N D L I A B I L I T I E S F E D E R A L R E S E R V E B A N K O F ST. L O U IS N ov. 19, 1947 ( l a thousands of dollars) &***? Total assets— —. - "*15^268 ....... —- H , 199,490 Total reserves — ------ ...— _____ - 678,125 Total deposits — ...— .........................— .. 760,119 F. R . notes in circulation— ........— - 1,123,156 Industrial commitments under Sec. 13b O c t 22, 1947 Nov. 20, 1946 4 -* "*2J60 4 - 23,382 4-$ 26,142 — * "3j26S 4 - 68.460 4 - t 65,195 444- 444- 49,046 89,829 21,245 — 3.460 580 22,026 60,575 1.316 - 0 - P R IN C IP A L A S S E T S A N D L I A B I L I T I E S W E E K L Y R E P O R T IN G M E M B E R B A N K S ( l a Thousands of Dollars) Assets N ov. 19, 1947 T^tal loans^and ^investments^......— — -$2,190,910 Change from O ct. 22, N ov. 20, 1947 1946 4-$ 47,371 38,878 704 curities - — ------------------------------— Rea! Estate loans..........— - ..........— — - 45,062 138,134 Treasury bills Certificates of indebtedness.................... 4-$ 47.266 4 - 160,848 — 1,494 6,063 1,118 1,526 3,081 30,030 Other loans .....Z — — — Z 171^783 Total loans ............... ........................... 958,994 DEBITS TO DEPOSIT ACCOUNTS STATES C O N S U M E R P R IC E IN D E X Statistics S ep t 15, (1935-39=100 ) 1947 BANKING AMD FINANCE THE — 35,239 + 27,585 — 827 4 - 24,311 4 - 175,184 1.620 30,013 14,800 48,380 — 25.724 — 107,796 17,028 114,994 ' 100,998 44— obligations ..................................... ........ 850,154 Other securities ................................. — 148,742 Total investments ............................... 1,231,916 4— 4- Cash Assets .................................— 801,274 Other Assets ........................................... 26,175 Total Assets - ....................................... $3,018,359 414,693 41.509 4-$ 63,573 4 - 67,202 4437 4-$H 4.905 Demand^de^osits— t o t a ! ^ ..........$2,342,485 4-$ 55,144 4-$ 81,617 1,851 — 7,140 1,343 4 4,362 17,341 — 127,918 Alton, 111.................. - -S tt.-N a tS .Y .,I!!. [uincy, IH. _- —— W tk Tea*. — _____ ttapM porations ...... - .. .- ........ .................... 1,475,509 4- 20,230 125,978 29,119 23,227 44,688 4U. S. Government deposits.......— ... 478 80,389 Other demand deposits...................... 118,764 -j5,317 4 - 12,801 Demand deposits— adjusted* ....... ........ 1,360,561 4 - 30,381 4 - 118,536 Time Deposits - ....................................... 474,367 -j203 21,780 Borrowings ............................................... 17,045 6,670 3,545 Other liabilities — ............ — .................. 16,698 773 1,303 Total capital accounts-.........................167,764 4783 6,660 Total liabilities and capita! accounts— 3,018,359 4 - 63,573 114,905 *^)ther than interbank and Government deposits, less cash items on i Page 145 22 and November 19. A rise in certificate holdings of $30 million plus smaller increases in holdings of Treasury bills and bonds more than offset declines in Treasury note and non-Government security portfolios, so that total investments registered an increase of $17 million. agricultural commodities agree that farm prices should remain firm at least until the 1948 crop season arrives in June and July. Domestic demand is expected to remain high and considerable foreign demand is anticipated, even though it may be some what smaller than was recorded in 1946. As a result of the net rise of $47 million in earn ing assets of the reporting banks and a substantial inHow of interbank deposits, total assets of the city banks went past the $3 billion mark and total de posits reached $2.8 billion. Demand deposits of individuals, partnerships and corporations increased $20 million, and U. S. Government balances, despite heavy W ar Loan calls, showed a minor rise. Time deposits, as is characteristic of this season, showed very little gain. Prices of grains, after declining somewhat in the latter part of October, strengthened during the first half of November. December wheat futures again were about $3. Mostly as a result of heavy sea sonal marketings, prices of hogs were lower in the early part of November than at any time since June. Prices of flue-cured and burley tobacco in the Kentucky markets were expected to be near the parity level. Spot cotton prices on November 13 were 33 cents a pound, somewhat lower than last year, but higher than a month earlier. With a substantially larger crop than last year, the price was sufficiently high for cotton farmers to have their first $2 billion crop since 1919. AG R ICU LTU R E Good weather in district states in October favored preparation for and seeding of fall crops. Rains were plentiful from late October on, and wheat and other small grains are up to good stands. Earlier dry weather permitted harvesting to be largely completed, with com put in cribs in fairly good condition. The cotton crop also was picked in good condition. The November 1 crop report for the nation as a whole reaffirmed earlier crop reports. Total corn production was estimated at 2,447 million bushels, 11 million bushels less than a month earlier. A crop of this size is considered 17 per cent below needs for the current feeding year. Other crop estimates were changed little from forecasts made a month earlier. The index of prices received by farmers increased to 289 on October 15, 1 per cent higher than the previous record high established only a month earlier. The index of 239 ^)r prices paid likewise established a new record high, but the gain was not as large as that for prices received, and the parity ratio thus increased one point to 121. The following table shows the major farm prod ucts classified by the percentage their current market prices are of parity prices. Price support PRICES O P MAJOR A G R IC U L T U R A L PRODUCTS EXP R E SSE D AS A PE R CEN TA G E OP P A R IT Y . O CTO BER 15. 1947 Below 90% Outlook reports, published during the latter part of October and first half of November, for various AGRICULTURE 90-99% (In thousands of dollars Sept., 1947 Arkansas ------ $ 64,813 Illinois ---------- 10!,024 Indiana ---------- 86,941 Kentucky - ...... 42,220 Mississippi .... 63.706 Missourt ....... 90.418 Tennessee ..... 45.874 Totals ..........$494,996 +275% — 23 — 11 + 33 + 368 + 5 + 68 + 22% +78% +72 +76 +76 +97 +68 +69 +75% $ 500.282 1,805,002 1,026,597 519.931 323,340 1,064,628 467.648 (5,707,428 +47% +42 +34 +28 — 5 +46 +35 +36% +48% +61 +54 +25 — 5 +49 +33 +45% RE CEIPTS AND SHIPM EN TS A T N A T IO N A L STOCK YARDS __________ Receipts________ O ct., Oct.,'47 comp, with 1947 Sept.,'47 O ct.,'46 Cattle and calves....213,087 H ogs - .......................212,008 Sheep ....................... 70.423 H orses ___________ 1,221 T o t a l s --------------- 496,739 — 4% — 8% +20 — 15 +43 + 3% +52 — 28 — 74 + 5% _______ Shipment!_________ O ct.. O ct.,'47 comp, with 1947 Sept.,'47 O ct.,'46 91,343 — 5 % 42,000 + 1 17,295 — 18 1,221 + 4 3 151,859 — 5% — 39% + 9 — 36 — 74 — 31% Above 124% _____ of parity _____ of parity _____ of parity Tobacco* Peanuts* Potatoes** Citrus fruits Eggs** Chtcken!** Wool*** Sweet potatoes** Apples Cotton* Milk** Butterfat** Barley Oats Turkeys** Sorghum grain Wheat* Com* Hogs** Beef cattle Lambs Rice* Soybeans** Cottonseed Flaxseed" Dry edible beans CASH FARM INCOM E Sept., '47 Comp, with_______ 12 Mo* total Oct. to Sept. A ug., Sept., 46 47 Comp, with 1947 1946 46-47 45 46 44-45 100-124% _____ of parity *** W oo^ rice legislation, 1947. operations (to hold prices of certain commodities at 90 per cent of parity) have had little effect on the genera! level of farm prices. Practically with out exception, the major cost-of-food items are above parity and their prices reflect heavy domestic and foreign demand rather than support activities. In the 90-99 per cent of parity range, some support has been given (market techniques call for actua! support at slightly above 90 per cent of parity to hold the effective 90 per cent !eve! as required by la w ), but such support has been minor. Page 146 National Summary of Business Conditions m ______ n BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM T N D U S T R IA L O U T P U T increased further in October. Department store sales continued in large volume ^ in October and the Arst half of November. The genera! level of wholesale commodity prices advanced slightly further. Industrial production— Production of manufac tures and minerals continued to rise in October, and the Board's seasonally adjusted index of indus trial production reached a level of 189 per cent of the 1935-39 average. This was the same as the rate prevailing during the first quarter of the year and 4 per cent above the third quarter average. Output of durable goods increased further in October to about the level that prevailed in the early months of this year, owing mainly to larger output of iron and steel. Operations at steel mills were at 97.6 per cent of capacity, the highest rate since the end of the war, and this rate has been sustained in November. Activity in most branches of the machinery and transportation equipment in dustries increased somewhat further in October. Production of nondurable goods showed a slight advance in October to a level of 173 per cent of the 1935-39 average; as compared with a rate of 176 at the beginning of the year. The rise in October reflected mainly increases in activity at cotton mills and in the printing and publishing industry. Cotton consumption in October was 10 per cent above the reduced rate prevailing during the third quarter but 10 per cent below the rate in October 1946. News print consumption continued to expand and was 16 per cent larger than a year ago. Minerals output advanced somewhat in October, owing to further gains in fuel production and was about 5 per cent above the level at the beginning of the year. Most o f the rise this year has been due to a 10 per cent increase in crude petroleum ouput. Employment— Nonagricultural employment con tinued to increase in October, owing mainly to the usual large pre-Christmas rise in wholesale and retail trade. In manufacturing, a seasonal reduc tion of nearly 150,000 workers in the canning indus try largely offset further gains in most other lines. Construction — Value of construction contract awards, according to the F. W . Dodge Corporation, rose sharply in October following a decline in September and was only slightly below the August peak. Awards for residential building and utility construction showed the largest increase. The De partment o f Labor estimated that work was begun on 92,000 dwelling units in October, the same num ber as in September, and 82,000 units were com pleted as compared with 77,000 in September. Distribution— Department store sales, according to the Board's seasonally adjusted index, were 278 per cent of the 1935-39 average in October as com pared with 290 in September and an average of 280 during the Arst three quarters of the year. In the Arst half of November sales showed more than the usual seasonal increase and were 11 per cent larger than in the corresponding period of 1946. Commodity prices— The general level of whole sale commodity prices increased slightly further in October and the early part of November, reAecting advances in industrial commodities. Average price levels for farm products and foods were unchanged, as increases in cotton, cereal products, and fats and oils were offset by declines in prices of livestock products from the advanced levels reached in Sep tember. Retail prices, according to the consumers' price index, advanced 2 per cent in September, reAecting a rise of 4 per cent in foods, 2 per cent in rents, and an average increase of 1 per cent in prices of other items. In October retail prices of foods apparently declined somewhat while prices of vari ous other items continued to advance. Bank credit— Rapid expansion in commercial and industrial loans continued at banks in leading cities during October and the Arst half of November. Real estate and consumer loans also increased further. Transfer of funds by the Treasury from war loan balances at commercial banks to Treasury accounts at Reserve Banks, together with Treasury retire ment for cash of Government securities held by Reserve Banks, resulted in a drain on member bank reserves in late October and again in Mid-November. Banks obtained reserves to meet this drain largely through further gold inAows and by selling Government securities to the Reserve Banks. Interest rates and bond yields— Prices of Treas ury bonds declined considerably in October and November, following an earlier decline in corporate bond prices. The yield on the longest 2% per cent issue rose to 2.44 per cent, compared with a low point for this year of 2.28. Average rates on Treas ury bills have risen gradually since last summer to .94 per cent in November. A new 13-month 1% per cent Treasury note has been offered in exchange for the % per cent certiAcates maturing December 1. Page 147 Monthly Review Index FEDERAL RESERVE BANK Page Agriculture Bank Loans to Farmers Farm Income in the Eighth Federal Reserve District 109 61 CTmrtf Cash Farm Income and Prices Received and Paid by Farmers in United States 33 Farm Mortgage Debt Outstanding in U. S. by Lender Groups, 1930-1946 111 Land Area, Land in Farms and Farm Population 64 Sources o f Farm Income, Eighth District States 65 Sources of Farm Income in the United States and Eighth District. 1929-1944 64 Total Farm Debt Outstanding in United States, 19101946 110 Ma^j Incom e Per Acre o f Farm Land. 1944 63 Incom e Per Person on Farms. 1944 62 7*oM*.y Acreage Goats for Principa! Crops in 1947 11 Cash Farm Incom e 9,21.33,45.60.72.84,96,108,120,132,146 Estimated Corn Acreage and Production in Eighth District States 96 Estimated Cotton Acreage, Eighth District States 96 Estimated Grain Supply, United States. 1947 96 Estimated Production o f Various Crops in the United State*, June 1. 1947 84 Farm Population, Size of Farm, and Per Capita Incom e in Eighth District, 1944 62 Farm W age Rates by Geographic Division. January I, 1947 34 Prices Received and Paid by Farmers 23 Prices Received by Farmers for A !! Farm Products 45 Prices o f M ajor Agricultural Products E xprtssfd as a Percentage o f Parity. October IS, 1947 146 Prospective Cotton Production, 1947 Eighth District States *08 Prospective Plantings, 1947 59 Prospective T obacco Production, 1947 Eighth Dtstrtct States . . Receipts and Shipments at National Stock Yards 9,21.33.45.60,72,84,96.108.120.132.146 U. S. Prospective Crop Production, 1947 120 cAfO, Business Conditions Bank Loana to Baaineaa by Clay J. Anderson 25 Bank Loan* to Farmers by Clay J Anderson 109 Banking and Finance Bank Loans to Business Bank Loans to Farmers M ember Bank Earnings in 1946 ^ N ew Member Banks „ , T h e Source and Use o f Bank Funds iv Assets o f Eighth District Member Banks Ownership o f Demand Deposits by Sfze of Banks 20 3! ^ A ^ M t ? ' * * " ' ' 9,21,36,48,60,72.84.96,108.120,132,145 Demand Deposits— Al! Eighth D istnct Banks by Geographical Area ^ ^ Earnings and Expenses o f AH Member Banks 43 Ownership o f Demand Depostts All Etghth Dtstrtct Banks, February 26, 1947 , ^ Percentage Changes m Loans, Investments and Deposits During 1946 Princma! Assets and Liabthttes, Federal Reserve Bank of Louis H , 23,35,47,59,71,83,95,107,119,131,145 principal Resources and Liability Items o f Reporting Member Banka. (Title changed August tssue.) M a d e * ! Assets and Liabilities W eekly R cporpn g. S S S fB a a k * 1 1 ,23,35,47,59,71. S3,95.107,119,131,145 HwthM'M Conditions OF ST. LOU!S Page Business Conditions Survey o f Current Conditions 6,30,43,56,67^ 80,91,104,116,129,142 National Summary (tor October) 147 A Review o f 1946 16 The Year Ahead 1 Coal Production .Sf; Industry Construction The Outlook for Construction 73 CAarf Construction 75 7aMf Building Permits 11,23,35,47,59,69,81,93,106,118,130,143 a/jo, Business Conditions Consumer Price Index Prices Crude Oil Industry Department Stores -S*ff Retail Trade Economic Development A Program of Regional Economic Development 13 Electricity Industry Employment Full Employment in the Eighth Federal Reserve District 37 CAarf Total Employment in Eighth District Metropolitan Areas .Sff, oAfo, Business Conditions Factors in United States Foreign Trade by Clay J. Anderson, W eldon A. Stein Farm Incom e in the Eighth Federal Reserve District Donald L. Henry Foreign Trade Factors in United States Foreign Trade 38 97 61 97 CAarf Supply and Use o f Dollars, 1919-1946 Forest Resources in the Eighth Federal Reserve District Donald L. Henry, Clifton B. Luttre!! Forests and Forestry Forest Resources in the Eighth Federal Reserve District 101 133 !33 C arf-f 'A Character o f Timber Cutting Practices on Commer cial Forest Lands Ownership of Commercial Forests: Eighth District States Volume o f Hardwood and Softwood on Commercial Forest Lands 139 135 137 Mapj Per Cent of Total Land Area in Forests: Eighth Federal Reserve District 134 7*aM?.f Current Annual Growth of All Timber and Sawtimber on Commercial Forest Land in Eighth District States 138 Drain From AH Timber and Sawtimber on Commer cial Forest Land in Eighth District States, 1944 138 Forest Acreage in Eighth District States in 1945 134 Nine-year Cutting and Stumpage Record on Crossett 40-A cre Farm Forestry Tract 140 Ownership of Private Commercial Forests in Eighth District States in 1945, by Size o f Holdings 136 Present Tim ber Growth and Potential Timber Growth Under Reasonably G ood Management in Eighth District States 140 Proportion o f Forest Land in Various Species in Eighth District States 136 Seedling, Sapling and Poorly Stocked Areas o f Com m eraal Forest Land in Eighth District States 137 Tim ber Acreage Having Fire Protection in Eighth District States, 1945 138 MONTHLY REVIEW INDEX FOR THE YEAR 1947 Page Page Full Employment in the Eighth Federal Reserve District by Gertrude M. Krausnick. W eldon A. Stein Furniture Stores .S*ff Retail Trade Industry CAarf Industrial Activity in the Eighth District, 1939-1946 Prices 37 24 Coal Production 8, 20, 33, 45, 57, 68 Consumption of Electricity 8,20, 33,45, 57, 68,80,92,105,117.129,142 Crude Oil Production, Daily Average 80, 9 2 ,105,117,129,142 Loads Interchanged for 25 Railroads at St. Louis 8,20,33,45, 57,68,80.92,105,117,129,142 a/.?o, Business Conditions Loans Bank Loans to Business 25 Bank Loans to Farmers 109 (7/tgrf.f Distribution of Dollar Amount of Business Loans by Type and Asset Size of Borrower Distribution of Dollar Amount of Business Loans by Type of Security Dollar Amount of Loans by Interest Rate and Asset Size of Business, Eighth District Member Banks, November 20, 1946 Loans of Eighth District Member Banks, 1939-1946 Method of Repayment o f Business Loans Outstanding Annual Rate Paid on Farm Real Estate Loans Held by District Insured Commercial Banks, Mid-1947 Distribution o f Business Loans by Interest Rate Distribution of Leans by Business Borrower Farm Rea! Estate Loans Outstanding at District Insured Commercial Banks, by Size o f Farm, Mid-1947 Loans to Small Business by Business o f Borrower, Eighth District Member Banks, November 20, 1946 Loans to Small Business, Eighth District Member Banks, November 20, 1946 Maturity Distribution o f Business Loans o f Eighth District Member Banks, by Size of Bank, by Type of Borrower Maturity Distribution of Term Loans, Eighth District Member Banks, November 20, 1946 Non-real Estate Farm Loans by Size o f Farm and Net W orth o f Borrower, Mid-1947 Non-real Estate Farm Loans of Eighth District In sured Commercial Banks, by Interest Rate, Mid-1947 Non-real Estate Farm Loans of Eighth District In sured Commercial Banks, by Maturity, Mid-1947 Non-real Estate Farm Loans of Eighth District In sured Commercial Banks, by Type o f Security, Mid-1947 Number o f Business Loans by Asset Size and Type o f Borrower Percentage Distribution o f Loans to Small Business by Maturity, Eighth District Member Banks, N o vember 20, 1946 Percentage Distribution of Loans to Small Business by Type of Security, Eighth District Member Banks, November 20. 1946 Percentage Distribution of Number o f Farm M ort gage Loans Held by Eighth District Insured Com mercial Banks, by Maturity and Purpose e f Loans, Mid-1947 Term Loans by Size and Bustness of Borrower, Eighth District Member Banks. November 20, 1946 Term Loans by Size o f Bank. Eighth District Member Banks. November 20, 1946 27 29 55 26 29 115 28 28 116 Prices Received and Paid by Farmers 23 Prices Received by Farmers for All Farm Products 45 Consumers' Price Index 8, 36, 48, 71,83, 95, 107,119, 145 Prices of M ajor Agricultural Products Expressed as a Percentage of Parity, October 15, 1947 146 Retail Food Prices 8. 36,48. 71,83,95, 107,119,131,145 Wholesale Prices in the United States 8,36,48. 71,83,95,107,119,131,145 Program o f Regional Econom ic Development, A by William H. Stead 13 Railroads .Sf? Industry Retail Trade Retail Trade, Review and Outlook 85 Indexes of Eighth District Department Store Sales and Stocks 18, 87 Per Cent of Tota! Sales in Selected Divisions, Eighth Federal Reserve District 89 Department Stores, Sales and Stocks Indexes of Department Store Sales and Stocks Percentage Distribution o f Furniture Sales Retail Furniture Stores Specialty Stores For * 10, 22, 34, 46, 58, 70, 82, 92, 106, 118, 130, 144 aArc, Business Conditions Review of 1946, A 16 Shoe Industry Index of Shoe Production in the Reserve District Eighth Federal 54 53 29 52 114 113 113 113 27 12 CAorf Index o f Shoe Production, Eighth Federal Reserve District, 1923-1946 Source and Use of Bank Panda, The, by Clay J. Anderson Special Articles A Program of Regional Econom ic Development. William H. Stead Bank Loans to Business. Clay J. Anderson Bank Loans to Farmers. Clay J. Anderson Factors in United States Foreign Trade. Clay J. Anderson. Weldon A. Stein Farm Income in the Eighth Federal Reserve District. Donald L. Henry Forest Resources in the Eighth Federal Reserve Dis trict. Donald L. Henry, Clifton B. Luttrell Full Employment in the Eighth Federal Reserve D is trict. Gertrude M. Krausnick, W eldon A. Stein Member Bank Earnings in 1946. E. Francis D eVos Outlook for Construction. W eldon A. Stein Retail Trade, Review and Outlook. Alfred C. Kearschner Surplus W ar Plant Disposal. W eldon A . Stein The Source and Use o f Bank Funds. Clay J. Anderson The Year Ahead. Chester C. Davis 54 Specialty Stores .Sff Retail Trade Surplus W ar Plant Disposal by W eldon A . Stein 54 12 49 13 25 109 121 61 133 37 42 73 85 121 49 I Surplus W ar Plants Present Status of Industrial W ar Plants Built in Eighth District with Public Funds, 1940-1944 114 52 121 124 Survey of Current Conditions J f f Business Conditions 52 Trade -S*f* Retail Trade, Wholesale Trade 42 73 Wholaaal* Trade 7aM* Wholesaling 11 ,2 3 ,3 5 ,4 7 ,59,69, SI, 93,107,119,131,143 Year Ahead, The by Chester C Davis I Manufacturing .Sff Business Conditions Member Bank Earnings in 1946 by E. Francis DeVos Outlook for Contraction, The by Weldon A. Stein (7Agr;.f