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Trade Balance-
Farm Exports Could Be Pushed
To Help Off~et Rise in Fuel Imports
The nation has shown a deficit in
its balance of payments most years
since World War II. But until 1971,
the nation's merchandise trade
balance was positive. And this surplus in trade offset much of the deficit resulting from other factors.
In the past two years, however,
the payments deficit has been aggravated by a growing net trade
deficit as imports have risen much
faster than exports. And as the
trade balance has deteriorated, increasing attention has been given
t? two industries that are espeCIally important to the economy
of the Southwest-petroleum and
agriculture.
Agriculture has remained a major source of strength in the trade
balance, showing growing net surpluses in the face of the general decline. But with large net trade deficits being recorded in petroleum
and petroleum products, fuels have
been readily identified as a definite
present and future problem.
Since no quick or easy solution
has been found to moderate the expected growth in fuel imports, focus on these two industries has
intensified. Of the industrial com-
ponents making up the nation's
merchandise trade, agriculture
seems to offer very real possibilities
for the expansion in exports needed
to help balance the rapid increase
in fuel imports. Not only is world
demand for farm products expected
to rise rapidly, but the United
States has a comparative, if not absolute, advantage among nations in
the world in its ability to expand
agricultural production to meet
any rise in foreign demand.
Of course, any exhaustive study
of expected future trends in the nation's balance of payments must
Deficit also develops in trade balance
BILLION DOLLARS
16 --_____________________________________________________________________________
12 U.S. MERCHANDISE TRADE BALANCE
84-
o - ______
~'"
-4 _
U.S . BALANCE OF PAYMENTS
-8 -
-12 _
-16--T-________~----------~----------~--------_,----------_rL-~------r_'45
'50
'55
'60
'66
'10
'75
SOURCE: U.S. Department of Commerce
.......
liu'
Slhess Review I September 1973
1
Energy consumption outrunning production
QUADRILLION BTU 'S
130
110 -
90 -
70-
50-
30-;----~r-----~----_r----~r_----,_----~------r
'50
'55
'60
'65
'70
'75
'SO
'S5
SOURCES : U.S. Bureau of Mines
Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
consider all of its components and
their interaction. A narrower focus
necessarily sacrifices some of this
interaction in order to concentrate
attention on a smaller number of
components of more immediate interest. And in view of this nation's
strength in agriculture, it seems
logical to ask whether, by itself,
an increase in farm exports could
provide the funds to pay for the
expected increase in fuel imports.
Potential for fuel imports
The nation has been relying on fuel
imports since it began consuming
more energy than it produced
about 20 years ago. The energy gap
widened significantly in the late
1950's but held fairly constant
through most of the 1960's as U.S.
energy production expanded to
keep just about apace with consumption. In 1970, however, the gap
widened sharply as domestic production dropped off for the first
time since the 1957-58 recession.
2
And indications are that it will
widen still further.
There has been little success so
far with efforts to curb fuel consumption in this country. And the
outlook through 1985 is for energy
demands to continue rising-and
probably faster than in the 1960's.
Efforts have also been made to
encourage more exploration for domestic oil and gas. But it will still
be years before these efforts are
reflected in gains in production.
Meanwhile, environmental and
other constraints hamper growth in
output of fuel, as well as the development of nuclear energy.
Unless policies can be initiated
to stimulate faster growth in domestic production, approximately
30 percent of the energy consumed
in the United States in 1985 may
have to be imported. That will be
in contrast to only about 12 percent in 1970.
Just how heavily fuel imports
will w.eigh on the nation's trade
balance depends, of course, on not
only the volume of imports but also
their prices. Prices, in turn, depend
partly on the origin of the imports.
In the past, most of the fuel
coming into this country has been
petroleum from other countries in
the Western Hemisphere, mainly
Canada and Venezuela. But for
several years now, the proportion
coming from the Eastern Hemisphere has been rising. Last year,
nearly 30 percent came from the
Eastern Hemisphere, principally
from Arab countries. And with
some 70 percent of the world's
proved oil reserves in Africa and
the Middle East, this trend toward
more imports from Arab countries
is apt to continue-with possibly
higher prices.
Tanker costs from the Middle
East are, of course, much higher
than costs for shipments from
within the Western Hemisphere.
Also, with the Middle Eastern
countries controlling most of the
world's reserves, a seller's market
exports of Soviet oil are not apt
imports could boost the cost of net
puts them in a position to com. to be enough to ease upward presfuel imports to around $34 billion
mand higher prices. With world
by 1985-compared with $2.1 billion
sures on world prices.
demand running as high as it is,
in 1970. If so, imports of fuel alone
If Americans continue to inthese countries could raise crude
crease their foreign purchases of
in 1985 would be nearly as large as
prices simply by holding back on
receipts from all U.S. merchandise
more expensive refined products,
production.
exports in 1968. (Implicit in this
average import prices may be
The payments problem of imoutcome is an assumed increase in
boosted even further. And this
ports from the Middle East is furthe cost of fuel imports of 3 percent
could be accelerated if expansion
ther complicated by the size of
a year.)
of domestic refining capacity is repopulations in these countries and
With appropriate incentives for
strained either by environmental
the historic composition and habits concerns or by constraints of taxing domestic exploration for additional
of their people. Unlike Canada and or pricing policies.
fuels (principally oil and gas) and
Venezuela, Arab countries have
development of additional petroTo stimulate the production
limited needs for American goods.
leum refining capacity, growth in
needed to hold back growth in imAs a result, the shift toward the
the nation's dependence on imports
ports, domestic prices may have to
could be slowed-particularly after
M.iddle East as a source of fuel sup- rise even faster than import prices.
plIes diminishes the possibility that But consumer resistance to inthe midseventies, when current efforts to increase production have
dollars spent for oil imports will
creases in prices is to be expected,
had time to begin taking effect.
flow directly back into the United
as, possibly, are the environmental
States in payment for American
concerns that constrain the growth The National Petroleum Council,
eXports to these countries.
of both refining capacity needed for for example, has estimated that
. The Soviet Union is another pos- the high-sulfur crudes coming from with stronger price incentives and
removal of environmental reslble source of oil. That country is
overseas and the mining and drillstraints on domestic industries proing operations needed to step up
reported to have considerable oil
ducing energy, the rise in the net
domestic production.
Potential and, having shown intercost of fuel imports could be held
est in American products, offers
On balance, the combination of
Possibilities for bilateral trade. But higher prices and greater volume of to $7.5 billion in 1985. That would
Recent net farm exports almos t equal net fuel imports
BILLION
DOLLARS
6 ____________
~_______________________________
4-
-4 _
I
-6 -
IZI U .S . FARM TRADE BALANCE
EI U.S. FUEL TRADE BALANCE
U .S. MERCHANDISE TRADE BALANCE
-8_______________________________
'66
'67
'68
'69
'70
~~--~~-
' 71
'72
SOURCES: U.S. Department of Agriculture
U.S. Department of Commerce
......
nu'Slness Review I
September 1973
3
be at 1970 prices, however. If prices
rose 3 percent a year, even this
sharply reduced level of imports
would cost $11 billion in 1985.
The further development of nuclear, solar, or coal energy supplies
could also reduce this nation's
needs for foreign oil. But it will
take time and incentives to develop
the capacity needed to supply more
energy from these sources-particularly where new technology has to
be developed. Scientists hope that,
eventually, most domestic energy
needs can be drawn from a nuclear
fusion process that will permit consumption without reliance on depletable resources.
In the meantime, the United
States will have to consider appropriate policies and actions, including those designed to increase merchandise exports, to pay for the
increase in oil and gas imports.
And farm sales represent one of
the important components of foreign trade that could be expanded
enough to make a material offset to
the rise in fuel imports.
supplies of fish meal short, world
demand for soybeans soared.
As farm shipments increased far
more than expected, domestic supplies suddenly turned short. Furthermore, the stage of the cattle
cycle combined with continued
growth in feedlot operations to
increase demands for feed. About
40 million additional acres of cropland have since been put into pro-
More U.S. oil imports expected to come
from Eastern Hemisphere ...
MILLION BARRELS A YEAR
700-----------------------------------------------
Potential for farm exports
Export markets have always been
important to American farmers,
and farmers have been shipping
more of their products abroad over
the years. Foreign sales had been
trending upward for more than 20
years when they suddenly surged
over the past year, leaving domestic supplies unexpectedly short.
Several factors were reflected in
this unexpected bulge in exports.
Aside from the longer-term growth
in world demand for food and feed,
there was, of course, the opening of
trade with the Soviet Union that
resulted in an enormous drain on
U.S. grain bins. But there were also
drouths in several of the world's
major crop-producing areas, as well
as a sharp drop in Peruvian exports
of fish meal, a source of protein
used in feed for livestock. With
4
duction in the United States. Because some of this additional
acreage, which had been set aside
under Government crop programs,
was not released early enough for
proper planting, production may
not reach its full potential until
next year. But by then-especially
if weather in other important growing areas has returned to normalU.S. production may be ample to
'45
'50
'55
'60
'65
'70
'75
... and refined products to make up more of total
BILLION BARRELS A YEAR
1.6 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
'45
'50
'55
SOURCE: U.s . Bureau ot M In88
'60
'65
'70
'75
meet the upward trend in foreign
export demand and still satisfy domestic consumption requirements.
Most of the nation's farm shipments have usually been to developed countries. The biggest markets for U.S. farm products have
been in Canada, Japan, and West
Europe. But exports to less developed countries are also growing.
And with the opening of new trade
relations with the Soviet Union and
other Communist countries, shipments likely can be expected to rise
still higher.
To help meet the increase in
world demand, the United States
is better endowed with resources
for agricultural production than
any other country. With only 7
percent of the world's land mass, it
has more than 12 percent of the
Middle East has 70 percent of world's crude oil reserves
BILLION BARRELS
150 ________________~------~------------------------SAUDI
ARABIA
100-
USSR
IRAN
50 _ UNITED
STATES
IRAQ
ABU
DHABI
SOURCE: World 011
-
Business Review I September 1973
cultivated land and nearly 9 percent of the pastureland. More importantly, in roughly the Corn
Belt, it has about half the world's
farmland with long summers of
adequate rainfall. And in the old
Cotton Belt across the southern
states, it has a third of the world's
humid semitropic farmland.
Combinations of temperate climates and fertile soil make these
two regions suitable for the production of many crops, especially
feed grains and soybeans-the crops
in most demand. Together with
other productive agricultural areas
-such as the upper Prairie States,
where short summers of adequate
rainfall provide abundant grain
harvests, and the dry southwestern
and Rocky Mountain states, which
provide the base for extensive cattle operations-these regions give
the United States an absolute advantage in agriculture that parallels the Middle East's advantage
in petroleum.
To the advantages of climate
and soil can be added the rapid
gains in productivity characterizing American agriculture. These
gains have long provided expanding domestic markets with plentiful
supplies of farm products while
still making large amounts of products available for export.
Growth in productivity has been
achieved mainly through technological advances and improvements
in the organization of resources
that encourage the substitution of
capital for labor. Until this year,
however, lack of effective markets
prevented even faster gains in productivity that could have been
achieved if returns to agriculture
had been better.
With gains in production already
outstripping the rise in domestic
consumption, until this year, inputs to agriculture have been increased only slightly since 1960.
Now, with incomes rising world5
wide and markets strengthening,
there are new opportunities for the
application of unused agricultural
capacity. And with the use of this
capacity, even faster gains in productivity can be expected.
Continued advances in technology-including more productive
varieties and more efficient cultural
practices-along with increased use
of fertilizer and other capital inputs, will doubtlessly push yields
much higher over the next few
years. And production gains-of
possibly as much as 50 percent by
1985-will be far more than needed
to meet the projected growth in
domestic consumption, leaving an
ever-widening margin of capacity
for meeting export demand.
Such increases in output would
reflect the addition of some 50 to
60 million acres of cropland that
has been held out of production.
Altogether, this land, which includes the 40 million acres recently
released, totals about 15 percent of
the nation's cropland. Almost all
of this vast reserve will probably be
needed to meet the rise in demand
for farm products.
With the gains to be expected in
productivity and more land going
into use, rapid strides can be made
in production of both crops and
livestock. And if projections are
anywhere close to accurate, farm
output should be ample to meet
the rise in domestic demand and
still provide large amounts of farm
products for export through at
least 1985.
If livestock production increases
over the next 12 years at about the
same rate as in the past 12 years,
output in 1985 will be more than
a fourth higher than it is today.
Poult ry and beef production will
most likely lead the advance, rising
much faster than the nation's population. Pork production will probably rise in line with population.
U.S. farm export markets expand rapidly in 1973
BILLION DOLLARS
14------------------------------------~-------------12 -
~
-
DEVELOPED
10 -
COMMUNIST
86-
4-
SOURCES: U.S. Department of Agriculture
Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
6
Because of continued strengthening in export markets, growth in
crop production will probably be
even faster than over the past 12
years. By 1985, production should
be more than two-fifths higher
than today. Leading the advance
will be soybean production, which
is apt to double, and the output of
feed grains, which could increase
almost half again. Production of
wheat and cotton will probably increase a fifth, and rice a third.
Even with the rest of the world
also increasing its agricultural output, this country's share of total
world trade in farm products
should rise significantly between
now and 1985. Demand for food is
governed, in the main, by three
factors-population, income, and
production. World population is
expected to reach close to 5 billion
by 1985-a 35-percent increase over
1970. During that time, individual
incomes are projected to rise about
three-fourths. But on a per capita
basis, agricultural production will
have risen only about 9 percent.
Reflecting these projected
changes, world trade in agricultural products is expected to adVance some 60 percent. And since
gains in per capita production in
less developed countries will be
needed to make up local deficiencies in output, surplus farm production will be concentrated in
only a few countries-one of the
most important of which will still
be the United States.
So while diminished domestic
stocks make for uncertainty in the
nation's export farm markets right
now, the longer-term outlook is
for rapidly expanded shipments
~broad. Overall, U.S. participation
lU world markets by 1985 should
at least match the projected 60percent increase in total world
agricultural trade. If so, this country's farm exports could, in con-
-
stant dollars, be worth nearly 60
percent more than in recent years.
Because production of wheat,
cotton, and rice is so widespread,
the outlook for these crops may not
be as bright as for other farm products. Since the Soviet Union and
East Europe will try to grow most
of their own wheat, wheat exports
from the United States may increase only moderately between
now and 1985. Some increases in
rice shipments can probably be expected. But cotton growers in the
United States will still face the
uncertainties of competition from
both synthetic fibers and cotton
grown in other countries.
Among crop exports, the most
favorable outlook is for soybeans,
which is not only a highly versatile
crop but also the most economical
source of protein available. Growth
in soybean shipments could easily
keep up with gains in production,
possibly doubling by 1985. And
because increasing world affluence
has created additional demand for
fed cattle, the outlook is almost as
good for feed grains.
Compared with crop exports,
livestock shipments will be small
but still higher than in recent
years. And for the longer run, there
is a possibility that livestock feeding might expand still further in
the United States, providing meat
that could be exported instead of
feed grains.
Against these exports must be
counted considerable farm imports
that will hold down the net contribution of agricultural sales to the
balance of payments. Farm imports, rising about $250 million a
year, reached a level of more than
$6 billion in 1972. This upward
trend is almost certain to continue.
Much of the increase in purchases of foreign farm goods is apt
to be in either those that are highly
labor-intensive, such as fruits and
Farm production expected to rise sharply
. .. far exceeding domestic consumption
1960=100
170 _______________________________________
1960=100
170
p~
150-
"
,
~~'
~~
130 -
DOMESTIC
'60
'65
'70
'75
'80
'85
90
"
,-
.J~ ~ ......
~.S. FARM
100 -
90~------~----~------~----~------r_
~~
""
U.S. FARM
...........
OUTPUT
............... ...
...............
110 100
...
CONS~UPTION ~
~~
~~
INPUT
I
'60
'65
'70
'75
'80
'85
SOURCES: U .S. Department of Agriculture
Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
--
nUsiness Review I September 1973
7
vegetables, or those with regulated
prices, such as dairy products. And
PERCENT
if trade is to be liberalized-a move
200 --------------------------------------------------~
that would benefit U.S. exportsother American farm products will
have to be subjected to foreign
competition. The adverse effect on
150 the farm balance from such imports
would be small, however, compared
with the possible gains in exports.
Although this country's farm ex100
~
l!'!'!\'
ports are increasing as economic
t;:i;-i
~t:
relations shift worldwide, growth
\.~l~
~g
t~~;
in
trade is still hindered by con".
~:~
' r-;\~
~
@l
~:~=f,
flicts
between the domestic and
~~~f·
50 ~~.~~
foreign policies of all countries. In
~1:~~
~i:'~~
agriculture, as in petroleum, these
iN,
policies are closely related-and
Xir
I~~\~~
;t~~:;
~
~
~
~ ~
generally at odds with conditions
o
'7 0 '85 ,
'70 '85
'7 0 '85
' 7 0 '85
of free trade.
PER CAPITA
PER CAP ITA
TOTA L
POPULATION
If there is no change in U.S. agGROSS WORLD AGR ICULT URAL AGRIC ULT URAL
ricultural
policies and the world
PRODUCT
PRODU CTION
TRADE
economy continues to expand at
SOURCES: Internatio nal Monetary Fund and Wor ld Bank
about the rate projected, U.S. farm
U.N. Food and Agricultu re Organizati o n
exports will probably be around
Federa l Reserve Bank of Da ll as
$18 billion by 1985. With agricultural imports projected at $11 billion, the net trade balance in farm
products should reach $7 billion.
Changes are being made, however. And along with other changes
at work on the international scene,
they could lead to a liberalization
of agricultural trade that would
Soybeans and feed grains to lead advance in U.S. farm expor t s
allow net U.S. farm balances to go
BILLION 1970 DOLLARS
considerably higher.
One of the most important inter2.5 ----------------------------------------------------national changes is, of course, the
~ '69-'72
rapid expansion of effective world
2.0food markets. With consumer incomes rising, expansion of markets
L. .. ~ '85
1.5 for
livestock products has been
....,
especially rapid.
But also important is the growing disenchantment with farm policies that restrict the flexibility of
producers' responses to changes in
supply and demand. Countries in
the European Common Market
RICE
SOYBEANS FEED GRAINS
WHEAT
COTT ON
have been particularly dissatisfied
SOURCES: U.S. Department of Agriculture
with their programs that allow
Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
farm surpluses to build up while
prices continue to go higher.
World farm trade to expand 60 percent by 1985
::
-
-- ~
~ ~
\r;~:;
~t~~
8
~
-
t
:
~ -~ I
I
-- I-~
I
-
~ ~
l
,i ! I
-
- !-
~ I
~ ~
I- -
!
-
There has also been disenchantment in the United States. For
American farmers to participate
more fully in world markets,
changes will be needed to give the
forces of supply and demand freer
rein in seeking international price
levels. These changes will become
increasingly important as American farmers try to compete in the
expanding markets for soybeans,
grains, and livestock.
Benefits of more free trade could
be substantial. With more liberal
trade policies, U.S. agricultural exports could reach $25 billion by
1985. Although imports would also
rise-though maybe only to about
$12 billion-the net trade balance
in farm products would still be $13
billion. That would be nearly twice
again the balance to be expected
with no liberalization of policies.
Some of this increase would
come from more sales of livestock
products. Most of it, however,
Would be due to greater crop shipments-especially feed grains and
soybeans, the two crops in which
the United States has a marked
adVantage.
A negotiating strategy for the
Dnited States aimed at achieving
market orientation in farm trade
Would require that restrictions on
farm imports be slowly removed as
other countries were induced to
ease their restrictions against U.S.
products. For trade to become
t:u~y market-oriented, export subSIdIes and price supports would
also have to be removed-at home
and abroad.
Although a Government farm
program might be helpful for several years in moderating shortterm depressions of farm prices
~h~n supplies became excessive
urmg the changeover to a freer
tnarket system, price supports
C~U~d not be used indefinitely.
RIgId price supports hinder resource adjustments-both in agriBUs'Iness Review
I September 1973
culture and without-preventing
the market orientation needed for
farmers to participate more fully
in the growth of world markets.
Prospects for a tradeoff
Net farm exports came close to
equaling net fuel imports in 1970.
But trends to be expected from the
continuation of current policies
would leave this near-balance
badly upset in just a few years.
Without major policy changesan indecisiveness that would allow
net fuel imports to reach $34 billion by 1985 and prevent net farm
exports from exceeding $7 billionthe balance could be tipped to a
deficit of about $27 billion in only
12 years. On the basis of other
trends in the nation's balance of
payments, that would be a deficit
that would not likely be made up
from other trade sources.
Modifications in policies could
change the outlook significantly.
With appropriate policies to stimulate domestic fuel production and
encourage the development of
other energy sources, the National
Petroleum Council estimates that
fuel imports projected for 1985
could be cut by more than t wothirds, holding foreign purchases
to about $11 billion. And with a
liberal trade policy supported by
appropriate domestic agricultural
production policies, net farm exports could be nearly doubled,
pushed possibly to $13 billion.
Under these most favorable circumstances, the United States
likely could balance its increased
farm shipments against the lower
level of fuel imports. Whether this
combination of conditions can be
achieved, however, depends on policy considerations that are beyond
ordinary economic determination.
Given the world's persistent
need for more food and this country's absolute advantage in farm
Most growth in U.S . farm imports in competitive products
BILLION DOLLARS
8
' 75
SOURCE: U .S. Department of Agriculture
9
... while farm trade surplus
could reach $7 to $13 billion
U.S. fuel imports could cost
$11 to $34 billion in 1985
... leaving the difference
possibly as high as $27 billion
BILLION DOLLARS
40---------------------------20 -
NET EXPORTS
,"~""'"I
-_---~_._
-40---------------------------'70
'85
'85
NO
POTENTIAL
MAJOR
POLICY CHANGE
'70
'85
NET DIFFERENCE
~
'85
NO
POTENTIAL
MAJOR
POLICY CHANGE
'70
'85
'85
NO
POTENTIAL
MAJOR
POLICY CHANGE
SOURCES: National Petroleum Council
U.S. Department of Agriculture
Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
production, it seems apparent that
more liberal trade policies are to be
expected. But also given the seemingly unyielding growth in domestic demand for energy and the
continued environmental constraints on domestic production of
energy, it seems unlikely that fuel
imports can be held to anything
like their minimum level.
Efforts are being made, however, to encourage the search for
more domestic oil and gas. And
as the United States becomes more
dependent on the Middle East for
10
oil, the incentive for expansion of
domestic production will increase
still further.
On balance, then, it appears
that while farm exports may not
fully offset fuel imports, changes
in farm and fuel policies are very
apt to lead in that direction. The
opportunity for closer balance is,
at least, visible.
New par bank
The Kirby State Bank, San Antonio, Texas, an insured nonmember bank
located in the territory served by the San Antonio Branch of the Federal Reserve
Bank of Dallas, was added to the Par List on its opening date, August 13, 1973.
The officers are: Lawrence W. Keller, Jr., President, and Alfred P. Berger, Jr.,
Vice President and Cashier.
-
nuSlness
' Review I September 1973
11
Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
September 1973
Statistical Supplement to the Business Review
Total credit at weekly reporting
banks in the Eleventh District increased slightly in the four weeks
ended August 22. Heavy purchases of Government and other
s~curities were financed mainly by
sIzable inflows of deposits.
Total loans fell sharply, primarily reflecting a substantial decline
in business loan demand. Construction activity in the District
Was brisk, however, and demand
for real estate loans remained
high, reflecting in part increased
costs of labor and materials. ConSUmer loans at District banks were
also strong, as borrowers apparently used bank credit to finance
purchases of automobiles and other
durable goods.
With the decline in the overall
?emand for loans, banks used their
Inflow of deposits to purchase securities. District banks added a
~ubstantial volume of Government
Issues-mainly Treasury bills-to
~heir investment portfolios. Other
In~reases in security holdings were
prImarily in municipal issues.
Total deposits expanded rapidly,
~s both demand and time and savW~s deposits increased markedly.
Ith the sharp decline in loan detnand, however, banks were less aggressive in issuing large CD's and
?utstandings fell. District banks
Increased their borrowing in the
EUrodollar market. Bank-related
C?mmercial paper remained relahvely unchanged.
Department store sales in the
~.leventh District were 13 percent
Igher in the four weeks ended
August 25 than in the comparable
rhriod last year. Cumulative sales
rough that date were also 13 perCent greater than in the corresPonding period in 1972.
Registrations of new passenger automobiles in Dallas, Fort Worth,
Houston, and San Antonio declined 6 percent in July but were 8
percent higher than in July 1972.
Cumulative registrations for the
first seven months of 1973 were 17
percent greater than for the same
period in 1972. Dallas had a yearto-year gain of 19 percent for the
seven months, Fort Worth had 17
percent, Houston had 16 percent,
and San Antonio had 10 percent.
Seasonally adjusted total employment in the five southwestern
states rose to a new high in July,
following an upward revision in the
number of people employed in
June. Total employment was 3.4
percent higher than a year before.
And with a slight increase in the
labor force, the unemployment
rate dropped from 4.0 percent to
3.8 percent in July.
Nonagricultural employment
was up 0.4 percent. Manufacturing
production was essentially unchanged, as gains in the production
of durable goods were offset by declines in nondurables. The advance
in nonmanufacturing employment
was paced by new hirings for construction and government jobs. All
categories of industry were well
above ther employment levels of a
year earlier.
The seasonally adjusted Texas industrial production index fell 0.8
percent in July but remained 6.0
percent higher than a year be.fore.
All major components of the mdex
except utilities contributed to the
decline.
A 2.1-percent reduction in nondurable goods production contributed significantly to an overall decline in manufacturing output.
Petroleum refining, apparel, and
printing and publishing showed the
biggest cutbacks. Output of chemicals and allied products and paper
products increased.
Durable goods manufacturing
edged down 0.1 percent. Transportation equipment and furniture
and fixtures had the biggest decreases. However, electrical machinery, lumber and wood products, and primary metals showed
increases.
As a result of a small decline in
crude oil production, mining activity was off 0.1 percent. Natural gas
production was up slightly. Output
of utilities rose, led by an increase
in the distribution of gas. There
was also a small increase in the
distribution of electricity.
A two-tier system of crude prices
will be used under Phase IV. Designed to offer incentives for production over 1972 rates of output,
the system will allow crude oil
from new production to be sold at
uncontrolled prices. And as a
bonus, producers will be allowed to
sell an amount of old crude at free
market prices equal to the new
crude developed since 1972.
Crop prospects in states of the
Eleventh District generally improved in August, as favorable
growing conditions helped compensate for the late start this spring.
Production of most crops was expected to surpass 1972 levels because of both increased acreages
and projected near-record yields.
As of August 1, winter wheat
production was placed at over 280
million bushels, 88 percent higher
than in 1972. The grain sorghum
crop was estimated at more than
(Continued on back page)
CONDITION STATISTICS OF WEEKLY REPORTING COMMERCIAL BANKS
Eleventh Federal Reserve District
(Thousand dollars)
ASSETS
Aug.22,
1973
Jul y 25,
1973
Aug. 23,
1972
Federal fund s sold and securities purchased
under agreements to rese ll .. . ... :-: .••.....••
Other loons and discounts, gross • ••.. .• .. •... ...
947,045
9,946,081
824,792
9,719,604
948,629
8,126,998
4,352,716
4,422,717
3,625,408
States and political subdivisions .... ... .....
U.S . Government . ... .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
280,006
265,105
188,709
821
44,925
822
43,322
1,165
93,235
Banks in the United States •. ........•......
Foreign:
Governments, offlcial institutions, central
banks, a nd international Institutions ••. . • .
Commercial bonks ..... ..... .... .......
Certifled and offlc:ers' checks, etc . .. .. .. .. .. .
7,466
481,535
7,805
491,611
5,694
453,719
Commercial and industria l loons .. •.• •. ...•.. •
Agricultural loans, excluding
certiflcates of interest ••• ..••....•..•••. • ..
loons to brok ers and dealers for
purchasing or carrying :
U.S. Government securities • • •. . .• .•• .••. .• .
Other securities . .•.•.....••..•... •• • ••••.
Other 1000$ for purchasing or carrying :
U.S. Government securities .• • .•..••.••.••••
Other securities ..•• .. . .•.. .. ...• • ••......
loan s to nonbank flnancia l institutions!
Sal es flnonce, personal flnance, factors,
and other business cred it companies ... ... .
ece
Other •....... . • . .. .. .•..•.••...•..•.•.
Real estate loons ... .•.............•.......
loon s to dom estic commercial bonks • •...••....
loons to foreign bonks . .• . . .•..•.........•..
Consum e r instalment loon s...... ............ .
loan s to foreign governments, ofncia l
institutions, central bonks, and international
institutions . .........• . ........•.•...... •
Oth er loans .•.•• ...... •. . • •.•. .. ... . ......
Total investm ent s . •.....•.........•..........
Total U.S. Government securities .... . . ..••....
Treasury bills . •........ . ....•.•••.....•.
Treasur y certiflcates of indebtedness . •••...•
Trea sury notes and U.S. Government
bond s maturing:
Within I year .•. ..•..... .•.•...... •. • .
I year to 5 years ..•. . ..•..•. .• . •.. . .. .
After 5 years .... ......••..•..•.....••
Obligations of states and political subdivisions:
Tax warrants and shor t-term notes and bills •.•
Total deposits ... .... .. ... . ... ............... 13,333,464
153,813
646,904
1,371,310
28,053
63,572
1,058,758
171,374
613,621
1,3 58,093
30,053
60,768
1,038,005
129,968
661,439
1,083,357
16,365
32,538
907,874
520
1,155,682
3,940,221
552
1,215,756
3,860,880
0
927,527
3,605,184
9~8,7 42
207,595
0
919,985
133,954
0
993,212
158,934
0
Total rim e and sovings deposits ...... .........
136,008
490,847
207,423
125,03 1
2,594,441
105,766
2,565,626
84,172
2,293,071
8,520
253,487
1,463,689
651,768
124,089
391,679
17,070
8,406
261,097
1,302,072
691,517
120,368
386,474
13,088
15,135
219,594
1,394,412
901,559
106,962
372,515
12,629
798,447
801,272
TOTAL ASSETS ... . .. .......... . ......... 17,980,089
17,720,067
Jul y 25,
1973
Aug. 23,
1972
13, I B9,212
12,299,829
- ---
6,649,087
4,813,100
405,462
70,912
1,209,546
6,581,554
4,675,285
445,402
146,629
1,155,362r
6,642,554
4,730,117
386,807
81,800
1,312,871
3,362
52,846
93,859
6,684,377
3,673
54,053r
101,1 50
6,607,658
2,789
36,838
91,332
5,657,275
1,146,924
3,602,304
1,803,200
23,267
83,862
1,159,957
3,579,515
1,743,657
31,304
80,505
1,154,668
2,937,792
1,429,924
26,881
93,010
24,800
20
12,600
120
13,900
1,100
2,472,358
202,649
560,895
166,161
13,982
1,230,580
2,380,640
228,794
527,217
163,919
13,819
1,216,466
1,979,174
51,935
450,516
139,763
18,184
1,132,033
17,720,067
16,07 1,414:
Ind ividuals, partnerships, and corporations:
States and political subdivisions • ..•.... . ...
U.S. Governm ent {including postal savings) • • . .
Banks in the United States . ..•. ... .••..••..
Foreign:
Governments, ofnciaf institutions, central
banks, and international institutions ••. ...
Commercial banks •. • . . • ...•...••......
Federal funds purchased and securities so ld
under agreements to repurchase •• . ...... .....
Other liabilities for borrowed money . •• . •...•.••
Other liabilities .•••. ....•...•..•••..•....•...
Reserves on loan s•... . .•..• ...•.•..•..•... . . •
Reserves on securities •• ••.... . • ... .•.•.•....•.
Total capital accounts •..• .•..•..•..•..••.•..•
- - - -
TOTAL LIABILITIES, RESERVES, AND
CAPITAL ACCOUNTS ..... .. .. .... ...... 17,980,089
153,920
467,258
164,853
All other . .................•........•...
Total demand deposits .. •. ..... .............
Individual s, partnerships, and cor porations • . . •
SaYings deposits .... .. . . ...... . ........
Other time deposits . ... ..... .......... .
137,788
446,637
166,722
Other bond s, corporate stocks, and securities:
Certiflcat es representing participations in
federal agency loons •.•. • .........•• ..•
All other (including corporate stocks) .... .... .
Co sh items in proc ess of collection . • .. . .......•..
Reserves with Federal Reserve Bank .. •..•... . ...
Currency and coin ... ... . ...........•.•.. •. ••
Balances with bonks in the United States • •....•. •
Balances with banks in foreign countries . • .. •..•. •
Other assets (including investments in subsidiaries
not consolidated) • ....•..••.....•.•. .• ...••
Aug. 22,
1973
LIABILITIES
--- -
r- Re vlsed
DEMAND AND TIME DEPOSITS OF MEMBER BANKS
Eleventh Federal Reserve District
-
(Ave rages 01 dally ligures. Million dollars)
602,546
- - - --
DEMAND DEPOSITS
16,071,434
TIME DEPOSITS
U.S .
Date
Totol
Adjusted'
Government
Total
1971, July .••••••
1972, July .••••..
August •••..
11,507
12,529
12,420
12,619
12,866
12,844
13,439
13,636
13,270
13,203
13,237
13,136
13,218
13,25 9
7,955
8,694
8,824
8,933
9,034
9,321
9,688
9,802
9,516
9,454
9,550
9,502
9,551
9,567
256
289
226
254
264
222
289
317
379
395
331
341
279
261
9,588
11,304
11,441
11,492
11,618
12,009
12,261
12,501
12,811
13,038
13,249
13,336
13,374
13,396
September.
October •••
November ••
December • •
CONDITION STATISTICS OF ALL MEMBER BANKS
1973, January .••
Eleventh Federal Reserve District
February •••
March •• •• •
April . •.•.•
May ..•••.
(Million dollars)
June • ••..•
Item
Jul y 25,
1973
27,
1973
June
July 26,
1972
TOTAL ASSETS- ••• . .• • .• •• •••.. .•• • ••
18,691
2,266
5,906
1,369
342
1,221
15
1,558
1,481
18,976
2,283
5,932
1,239
345
1,289
18
1,605
1,519
15,719
2,287
5,225
1,507
309
1,242
13
1,655
1,118
RESERVE POSITIONS OF MEMBER BANKS
Eleventh Federal Reserve District
32,849
33,206
29,075
Demand deposits of bonks • •..•.•••••••.•
Other demand deposits • •..••.•..•• •• ..••
Time deposits .•.. •..•.•••...•••••..•.••
1,586
11,248
13,413
1,613
11,519
13,394
1,739
10,657
11,383
Total deposits ••. .. . ••.•.•••..•...••.•
Borrowings ••. ......•••..••••.••••••.••
Other liobilities e ••••. .•..•..••.•..••.•.•
Total capitol accounts e • •.••.••••••.••..•
26,247
3,041
1,243
2,318
26,526
3,126
1,258
2,296
23,779
1,929
1,402
1,965
LIABIlITIES AND CAPITAL ACCOUNTS
TOTAL LIABILITIES AND CAPITAL
ACCOUNTSe •.•.....•..•.• •. .... • .
e-Estlmated
2,434
2,714
2,717
2,744
2,770
2,786
2,812
2,815
2,817
2,848
2,855
2,859
2,884
2,868
-
1. Other than those 01 U.S. Government and domestic commercial banks, leSS
cash ite ms In process of collection
ASSETS
loans and discounts, gross • •• . ••••.•• • ••.•
U.S. Government obligations ... ••••.••••••
Other securities ••••• .•.•.••.•.•.•••.••••
Reserves with federal Reserve Bank ... ••..•
Cosh in vault •••. ..•.•..•.•...•.....•..•
Balances with bonks in the United States . •..
Balances with bonks in foreign countries e • •. .
Cash items in process of collection •••• •• .•••
Other assets e • . ••..•.•.••.•....•••• • •.•
Jul y •...•.•
Savin gs__
(Ave rag es of daily figures. Thousand dollars)
-
Item
Aug. I, 1973
.4 w eeks ended
July 4, 1973
.4 weeks ended
Aug. 2, ~
Total reserves held •••....•.••••..
With Federal Re serve Bonk •• ...•
Currency and coin . ••..•...•...
Required reserves • .•• .. • .•.... .•.
Excess reserves •• •...••.••.••...•
Borrowings • .•.••. . . ••••....... •
Free reserves • ••..••••.••....•.•
1,818,526
1,513,643
304,883
1,804,716
13,810
131,982
-118,172
1,758,533
1,461,612
296,921
1,770,282
-11,749
93,590
- 105,339
1,896,013
1,620,152
275,861
1 877,45 1
, 18,562
2,952
15,610
4 weeks ended
---------------------------------------------------------
BANK DEBITS, END-OF-MONTH DEPOSITS, AND DEPOSIT TURNOVER
SMSA's in Eleventh Federal Reserve District
(Doll a r amounts In thous ands, seasonally adjusted)
DE81TS TO DEMAND DEPOSIT ACCOUNTS'
DEMAND DEPOSITS'
Percent change
July
1973
Standard metropolitan
statistical are a
ARIZONA, Tucson ............. . .... . .. .. ............
LOUIS IANA Monroe . .......•... . •. •..... • . .. .•......
NEW MEXICO, Roswell ' •..•.... . •.. ..... ...•..•.. • •..
TEXAS, Abilene •.........................•. • .. .. ....
Amarillo ...... . . ... ....... .. ....... ........ .
Austin ... . ........... . . . ........•...........
Boa umonl- Port Arthur-Orang e .. .. .. ......•.•....
Brownsville-Harlingen _Son Benito •.• .. .......• ... .
Bryon. College Station ......... . .•....•. . ......
2~;~~~n~~r.is.ti: :::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::
~o~~:~.' : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : .' : .' : .' : : : : : : :
Fort Worth ... . ... . .. . ....... ... ...... ... . .. .
Golveston· Texas Cit y •..... . ... . ..... ..........
Houston .•. ............. . ............• , ..••..
Killeen-Temple . . .. .................•...•.....
laredo •........... ... ....... . ............. .
Lubbock . . . . . .. ... . . ......•..•.•...•.•....••
McAllen· Pharr-Edinburg .... ..•.•...............
Midland . .. .. ............. . •... . .•.....•..• .
Odessa •........•.............•...•... . ....•
Son Angelo • .•. ....... . ... .• ... ... ..... .•.. •.
Son Antonio ... . .....•. .• . .. ... . . . ... . ...• •..
Sherman· Den ison • . . ......... .. ..•• •... .• . ..• .
Texark ana (Tcxas·Ark ansas) .. .............•....
Tyler .......................................
Waco ...•..........•..•.•...•.•••...•••....
Wichita Falls.••...•••.•.•.•.••..•••..••......
Total_30 centers .......••.•.....••...••..••..•••...
7 months,
(Annual-rate
June
basis)
1973
$13,3 14,755
4,725,445
16,28 1,994
1,154,353
3,196,366
9,705,433
15,510,914
8,518,771
2,987,137
1,451,844
8,919,829
625,291
209,585,106
11,555,264
30,700,954
3,655,658
168,660,442
2,540,354
1,479,102
7,899,330
3,466,271
2,671,099
2,197,268
1,952,033
26,466,570
1,546,270
1,946,725
3,073,831
4,652,518
3,553,294
Shreveport . . .. .. .. .. ..•... . ...• ... ...•.•
-----
Annual rate
of turnover
July 1973 from
6%
0
-3
-10
-I
-12
9
5
-13
-4
7
-7
1
-2
-5
8
4
0
-1
-2
1
-1
-14
-20
-4
4
-7
1
5
-I
$573,994,221
1%
Jul y
1972
1973 from
1972
July 31,
1973
July
1973
1973
July
1972
41%
25
36
25
25
29
26
25
27
10
21
21
43
19
6
26
23
29
25
46
48
27
14
14
23
27
10
10
21
21
33%
22
20
15
20
27
13
16
23
14
14
25
24
18
10
17
20
27
24
36
32
15
18
22
19
14
12
16
17
15
$339,129
115,784
334,146
50,842
148,714
221,154
452,872
283,393
117,982
58,230
290,388
42,326
2,945,638
322,950
848,859
132,713
3,366,302
118,633
58,908
234,472
178,974
158,472
104,506
83,840
911,244
87,101
93,488
133,000
158,432
155,701
38.5
40.6
50.2
22.7
22.0
43.4
31.8
30.2
25.0
24.9
31.0
15.0
70.8
36.1
36 .3
28.2
50.4
21.1
25.2
34.6
19.7
16.8
21.4
22.2
29.3
17.7
21.2
23.1
29.7
23.1
36.8
40.0
52.9
25.8
22.6
48.1
27.7
28.3
27.6
25.9
29.0
16.0
68.2
36.5
37.9
26.0
48 .0
20.9
24 .6
36.0
19.4
16.7
25.4
26.5
30.3
16.9
23.3
23.5
28.1
23.7
30.0
34.7
39.8
21.2
20.7
39.6
26.6
25.2
24.0
24.5
27.6
14.4
53.8
31.4
36.5
23.7
43.8
18.7
23.7
28.6
17.1
14.0
18.2
22.0
25.9
16.2
20.3
23 .6
26.1
22.1
29%
21%
45.7
44 .8
38.3
$12,548,193
Jun e
1. Deposits of individuals, partnerships, and corporations and of states and political subdivisions
2. County basis
CO NDITION OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF DALLAS
-
BUILDING PERMITS
(Thousand dollars)
1973
July 25,
1973
August 23,
Item
[ota l gold certincote reserves •....•..••.•...
Cans to member bonks .................•.•
F ther loons . . • . . . . . . . . . . . . ....•.•......•
Ue~ o ral ag enc y obligations •.....••... .....•
T' . Government sec uriti es .•......•.. . ... .. .
tal earnjn g ass ets •.. . ...............••••
F ember bank r ese rve deposits ...... . ... .. ..
ederal Reserve notes in actual circulation . ...•
196,193
72,375
0
71,676
3,303,148
3,447,199
1,274,045
2,357,258
256,671
112,2 40
0
71,114
3,297,5 89
3,480,943
1,369,458
2,346,443
330,313
7,010
0
53,355
3,187,354
3,2 47,719
1,569,344
2,169,330
August 22,
M
-
VALUATION (Dollar amounts in thou,onds)
1972
Percen t change
July 1973
Area
ARIZONA
Tucson •••....•
Monroe· West
Monroe •••.•
Shreveport .•.•
l OTAL OIL WELLS DRILLED
.....
Are a
FOSUR SOUTHWESTERN
LTATES ..... . ...... . .. . •
aulslona .. . . . ... . .. .. .. .
Offshore .. . ........•.•
N On shore ..•. . . .. • . . . . .
ew Mexico .. ... . .•. . ...
o
T klohomo .... . ... . • .....
exas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
--
Offshore . . . ... . .......
lJ
July
1973
7 mos.
1973
-----July
June
1973
1972
7 months,
1973 from
1972
1973
1973
488
3,789
$9,340
$109,665
80
458
592
3,131
3,762
6,756
19,045
52,183
74
144
374
71
10
46
60
166
453
188
103
204
1,262
22
457
344
49
2,312
34
111
83
109
67
83
1,871
39
48
209
75
528
1,147
3,501
1,349
693
2,095
9,680
199
3,722
2,665
382
18,694
322
1,140
606
765
741
566
12,758
273
362
1,433
520
1, 196
2,159
27,222
1,825
1,764
4,691
27,864
126
11,027
7,895
314
41 ,514
1,538
1,8 27
728
670
174
1,072
23,270
407
662
3,154
1,437
18,355
33,957
151,757
19,601
17,016
35,304
198,750
1,849
103,22 1
72,888
6,379
432,536
13,546
45,853
9,926
9,851
4,161
6,410
145,026
3,793
3,034
23,419
12,762
-52
-76
75
-63
68
-33
-50
55
7
15
-2
55
- 13
- 19
-25
35
- 36
530
-55
10
-46
- 75
14
78
-24
74
-27
42
71
91
2
13
100
-10
-2 6
-6
-9
48
-17
10
40
37
- 14
-46
8
33
10
-2 1
-40
6
48
9,375
71,653
-45%-47%
-11%
LOUIS IANA
TEXAS
---
from
NUM8ER
------7 mos.
July
Onshore •......•. . ... .
NITED STATES .. .. ........
Second
quart er
First
quart er
1973
1973
1,426
188
49
139
61
22 1
956
2
954
2,219
1,403
243
95
148
92
196
872
2
870
2,474
SO URCE : Am e rican Pe trol e um Institute
Percent
change
Percent
change
1.6%
-22.6
-48 .4
-6.1
-33.7
12.8
9.6
9.7
- 10.3%
1973
from 1972
cumulative
cumulative
2,829
431
144
287
153
417
1,828
4
1,824
4,693
-19.1%
- 10.6
26.3
-22 .0
-42.7
-22 .8
- 17.3
- 17.4
-20.0%
Abilen e •..••..
Amarillo ..... .
Austin .•...• . •
Be aumont .• , ..
Brown sville •.. •
Corpus Christi. .
Dallas .....•..
Denison ...••. .
EI Pa so ...... ·
Fort Worth ....
Galves ton .....
Houston .•.. . ..
larodo . . • . · · .
Lubbock . .. •..
Midland ...•..
Od essa ...•...
Por t Arthur ....
Son Ang elo ..•.
San Antonio ..•
Sh erman . .....
Tex arkana . . ..
Waco . .. .. · · .
W ichita Foils ..•
TOlal - 26 cities .• •
-------$182,394 $ 1,550,487
11~
7
-54
-39
- 4
- 8
-29
120
- 62
-57
- 75
-2 8
98
16
62
47
17
68
-10% - 3%
3%
DAILY AVERAGE PRODUCTION OF CRUDE OIL
LABOR FORCE, EMPLOYMENT, AND UNEMPLOYMENT
(Thousand barrels)
Five Southwestern States l
Percent change from
Areo
FOUR SOUTHWESTERN
STATES . ......... . ... .. .
louisiona .•. ...•• .• .. . •.•
N ew Me xico •...•• • .. . • . .
Oklahomo •. •. . ..• ...•• . .
Texa s .. . . . . .•. • .....•.•
Gulf Coa st . • . . ... .. . • .
W es t Texas . . ••.. . .. • .
East Te xa s (prop er) . •• • •
Panhandle .••• • . .... .• .
Rest of state . .. ••......
UNITED STATES . .......... .
July
1973
1973
July
1972r
6,760 .2
2,281.8
269:0
521.0
3,688.4
739.7
1,870.1
254.2
62.4
763.0
9,346.0
6,781.6
2,319.9
273 .8
523.1
3,664 .8
729.9
1,856.9
252.1
66 .3
759.6
9,366.6
7,150 .5
2,546.6
309.8
567.5
3,726.6
771.3
1,798.1
258.8
73 .0
825.4
9,727.0
June
Jun e
1973
-0 .3%
- 1.6
- 1.8
- .4
.6
1.2
.7
.8
-5 .9
.4
- .2%
(Seasonally adjusted)
July
1972
-5.5%
- 10.4
- 13.2
-8 .2
-1.0
- 4.2
4.0
-1.8
- 14.5
-7.6
- 3.9%
r- Re vised
SOURCES : American Petroleum Institute
U.S. Bureau of Min e s
Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
Percent change
July 1973 from
Thousands of persons
Item
Civilian 10 bor force . .. . . . • .•
Totol emplo yment .... .. .....
Total unemployment ... . • ....
Unemploymen t rate •• .•. . . . •
Total nonagricultura l wage
and salary employment. ...
Manufacturing . ..•... .• .•
Durable .• • . ...........
Nondurable • . . . . . . . • ..
Nonmanufacturing . •• •. ...
Mining ..•....... . .... .
Construction • • . .. . .•.. .
Tran sportation and
p ublic utilities • .......
Trade • . .. . ... . . . .•.• •
Finance . . .. •. . . . . .• . . •
Service • • . ........•• ••
Government . • . ... . • • .•
July
1973p
1973
July
1972 r
8,901.3
8,562 .8
338.5
3.8%
8,881.3
8,525.0
356.2
4.0%
8,666.6
8,283.3
383 .3
4.4%
7,064 .8
1,231.6
689.2
542 .4
5,833.2
233 .0
486.5
7,034.9
1,231.0
687.5
543.5
5,903.9
232.4
48 1.4
6,773.2
1, 176.2
642.6
533 .6
5,597.0
230.5
45 1.4
477.7
1,691.7
384.5
1,153 .0
1,406.9
476.8
1,695 .9
383.0
1,151.5
1,393.0
464.0
1,62 1.5
360 .9
1,107.9
1,360.8
June
July
1972
June
1973
0.2% 2.7%
3.4
.4
-5.0 -11.7
' _.6
' _.2
4.3
4.7
7.3
1.6
4.2
1.1
7.8
.4
.0
.2
-.2
.5
.3
1.1
.2
.3
.4
.1
1.0%
3.0
4.3
6.S
4.1
3.4%
1. Arizona , Louisiana, New Mexico, Oklahoma, and Texas
2. Actual change
p-Preliminary
r- Revlse d
NOTE : Details may not add to totals because of rounding .
SOURCES : State employment agencies
Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas (seasonal adjustment)
CROP PRODUCTION
(Thousand bu s hels)
FIVE SOUTHWESTERN STATES'
TEXAS
Crop
1973,
1973,
estimated
estimated
Aug. I
4,532
Corn • . . • . • . • .. .
60,900
Winter wheat ....
99,600
Oats ... . .. . ....
26,650
Borley .•.. • .. • . .
3,510
Rye . ...... • ..•.
648
Rice". ...... . . . .
23,693
Sorghum groin ..• 414,800
Flaxseed ... .....
80
Hay 4 ••• • • •• ••• •
4,464
Peanuts s . . . . . . .. 502,400
Irish poto'oes l , ...
2,991
Sweet patatoes 3 ••
760
Cotton' . . ...... .
1972
1971
Aug. 1
1972
1971
4,277
39.560
44,000
9,720
1,990
630
22,122
319,780
165
4,109
480,455
3,182
813
2,614
44,I60r
31,416
5,994
1,320
378
23,868r
303,004
70
4,114
366,795
3,299
788
6,177
73,493
291,721
35,099
21,196
2,046
47,367
481,448
80
10,887
766,340
6,317
3,910
6,140
52,795
150, 115
16,149
19,334
1,890
42,099
378,218
165
9,944
743,566
6,665
4,113
4,053
55,241 r
119,925r
12,OOIr
26,300r
1,158
43,704r
366,400r
70
10,303r
602,315
6,810
3,763
r-Revise d
1. Arizona, Louisiana, New Mexico, Oklahoma, and Texas
2. Thousand bales
3 . Thousand hundredweight
4. Thousand tons
5. Thousa nd pounds
SOURCE : U.S. Department of Agriculture
480 million bushels-up a fourth
from 1972 and nearly a third larger
than in 1971. The cotton crop in
Texas was projected at 4.5 million
bales, only moderately higher than
in 1972 but three-fourths larger
than in 1971. The Texas soybean
crop was expected to more than
double its 1972 output, offsetting
a slight decline in Louisiana.
Cattle on feed in Texas on August 1 numbered 2.3 million head,
up 9 percent from a year earlier.
And, in Arizona there were 548
thousand head on feed, slightly
more than the year before. Cattle
INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION'
(Seasonally adjusted Indexes, 1967
Area a nd type of index
= 100)
July
1973p
June
1973
May
1973
July
1972
138.5
142.5
157.0
132.1
123 .4
158.6
139.6
144 .2
157. 1
134.9
123.6
158.1
135.9r
140.6r
156.1
129.3r
118.7r
158.1r
130.6
131.8
142 .3
124.2
120.6
126 .3
126.6
123.9
130.4
110.6
149.0
125.4
125.2
122.5
129.3
109.3
148.8
124.8r
124.9r
121.7r
129.9r
108 .8r
149.5r
TEXAS
Totol industria l production .•...•
Manufacturing .••.....••.. ••.• .
Durable •.. . ••...• • ..•.•• • .••
Nondurable . . ......... . ......
Mining ...... . ........ . ...... . .
Utilities ••... • •...•... • •.•..• . •
UNITED STATES
Total industria l production .•....
Manufacturing •••. • . • . .• . ... . • .
Durable . . . .... . .............
Nondurable . . .... . . . ... . .. .. .
Mining .••..••...•..•...•..•.. •
U tilities .•.....•... • ....•...•. •
-
158.S
115.1r
11 4.3r
108.8r
122 .Sr
108 .6r
143.3r
p - Preliminary
r - Revised
SOURCES: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
placed on feed continued to lag,
but even with the decrease in placements, active feedlots in Texas reported an above-average rate of
occupancy. The rise in cattle on
feed despite a decline in placements reflected the uncertainties
of recent economic controls and the
resulting cost-price squeeze in the
livestock industry.
The index of prices received' by
Texas farmers and ranchers increased markedly in the month
ended August 15 to a level substantially higher than a year earlier. Crops and livestock contrib-
uted about equally to both the
month-to-month and year-to-year
gains. Higher farm prices boosted
cash receipts from farm marketings
in the five District states to $4.2
billion for the first six months of
this year-26 percent higher than
for the same period in 1972. Crop
receipts increased by 50 percent to
nearly $1.3 billion, while livestock
receipts moved up 18 percent to
just over $2.9 billion.
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@FedFRASER