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FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF DALl.AS REPO RT O F BUSINESS CONDITIONS IN THE ELEV ENTH FEDERAL RESERV E DISTRICT (Compiled by the Federal Reserve Agent, January 23, 1920.) The strong position of the nalional and state banks, a$ reflected by partial returns from their condit ion reports of December 31st, 1919, was the salient development of the general business ituation (or the month of December. The advent of the New Yljar found th ' banks in lhe larger centers with the heaviest deposi ts in their his tory. An illustration of the magnitude of their prosperity is afforded by the fact that one reserve city in the district reported a net gain of one hundred and twenty-three per cent in its aggregate deposits of December 31,1919, as compared with December 31, 1918. One of the principal factors of Ulis sihmtion is the I'clI1IU'kable development during the past year of lhe oil industry in th is district, whose production in 1919, aggregating' 111,903,600 barrels, was more than double the yield for 1918. Crop statistics compiled in December indicate thaI 1919 was Texas' banner year in agricultural production, the mOlley returns from eotton having exceeded a ll former rt!cords, and lhe production of grain having more tllan doubled the highest previous records of rece nt years. Range conditions were never more satisfactory, nor offered a more encouraging outlook. . 'I'he turn of the year witnessed no appreciable diminution in trade, and, contrary to prediclions in some qual' el' , brought no sub lantial recessions in prices. AGRICULTURE: Better weaUler conditions prevailing dllring the past thirty days hav(' enabled farmers to complete the picking of cotlon in practically all sect ions of the district. Texas ginnings prior to January 1st, 1920, amounted to 2,465,377 bales, against 2,479,472 bales g inned prior to January 1st, 1919. The 1919-1920 acreage of winter wheat is 1,077,000, conditions 79% of normal, as compared with 1,959,000 acres and a condition of 850/0 for the corresponding period Ia t seasptl. Reports 011 truck crops indicate that Texas will have a commercia l acreage of 35,000 acres this year, the average condition at this time being about 851'0. A recent inAux of new settlers in the Lower Rio Grande Valley ha s stimulated truck growing operations in that section, where hea,'y shipments of early vegetab les will begin to move to outside markets in March, with the movement reaching its peak point early in April. LlV·EST OCK : Range conditions are uniformly good throughout the district. Grass is plentiful, cattle and sheep are fat, and reports from the ranges indicate that very liLtle dry feed will be required to carry livestock through the winter. While New Mexico and the Panhand le country have heen visited by cold waves and snow storms, cattle have not suffered to any great extent and winter losses are expected to be unusua lly light, due to the excellent condition of the herds. The December movement of cattle and calves to the market was lighter than in ovember, whi le the movement. of sheep was about the same. I n the San Angelo territory the sheep ranges have recently been heavily resto cked-the movement being estimated at 250,000 head-by Shipments from Wyoming, where wealher and range condiHons threatened serious losses. Cattle ranges throughout the district are stilt considerably understoeked, not having yet recovered from the effects of conlinu d drouth s and the slaughter of breeding herds during the war. Prices on beef steers at t he leading market of lhis district nried very litll e during the month of December, the top at the end of that month being $12.50, as compared with $12.25 at the end of November. Hogs reached a tOI) of $14.50, as compared with $13.25 for the previous monlh , while calves commanded a tap price of $13.25 on D(' ccmber 31 1, as aga inst $11.00 on November 29th. Comparative livestock receipts at Fort Wort h were as fo ll ows: November December Loss 01' Gain Callie ....................................................108,781 89,669 L 19,11 2 Ca lves .............................................. 28,920 13.,605 L 15,315 Hogs ............................................... 30,339 4;',014 G 14,675 Sheep .............................................. 33,758 32,067 L 1,69 1 Horses and Mu les.... ................... 10,845 6,770 L 4,075 1918 1,384,594 280,575 762,486 334,596 78,881 1919 1,030,932 235,282 588,101 453,249 60,366 Loss or Gain L 353,662 L 45,233 L 174,385 G 1] 8,653 L 18,515 LU MB ER : The lumber l11iUs went into the New Year wi th what is said to be the shortest stocks in their history, although confronted with an illcreasing rather than a decreasing volume of orders. The demand, which ord inari ly shows a noticeable lull from abo ut the middle of Decemher until after the first of January, has th is season continued strong and sustained throughout the holi day period. December output showed a decrease as compared with lhe previous month, due to milling difficult ies arising frol11 adverse weather conditions, the scarcity of labor and a continued shortage of cars. Thispublication was digitized and made available by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas' Histo17cal Library (FedHistory@dalfrb.org) On some items prices continued to exhibit an upward trend during the month. In some quarters it is believed that lumb er prices have reached their peak levels, while the contrary view seems to be held by a majority of manufacturers, who, though declaring that prices are too high, assert that the demand has so far outstripp ed the supply that a gradually rising scale of prices for several months to come is a natural concomitant of such a condition, and that producers will be powerless to stabili ze the situation until demand and supply become more nearly equalized than they are at the present time. OIL: A comparison of the November and December operations of all Eleventh District oil fie lds w hose records are available discloses an increase of 158 in the number of completions, 139 in the number of producers, and an increase of 19 in the number of failures, while the total production for the month of December, including new and old wells, showed a slight fa ll ing off, as w ill be seen from the following tabulation: Completions Pro ducers Failures Tota l production 8,822,235 barrel's 8,807,232 barr els Statistics of the operations of all fields in Texas and Northern Louisiana for the year 1919 are quoted below: Comp letions Producers Failures Total production ( new and old wells) Texas lields .............................................................. 4,863 3,723 1,140 96,662,606 barrels Louisiana .................................................................... 629 541 88 15,241,485 barrels The results of drilling operations for 1919 in Texas "wild cat" fields were 313 completions, of wh ich ~7 per cent were producers and 63 per cent failures. In T exas Burkburnett led the proven fields wit.h 1,989 completion s and a production of 25,865,757 barrels, while in North ern Louisiana the Bull Bayou district led with 126 completions and 4,041,115 barrels. In lin e with price advances placed in effect in the Oklahoma fields (luring the past month, an advance of 25 cents per barrel was recently posted in the North Texas field, increasing the price of North Texas crude to $3.00. The advance was attributed to a general increase in the demand for domestic consumption and export requirements. ~~~~l~~~::: t~f~ :::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::~:::::::::::: 1~f 19~ ~~ MANUFACTURING: The December position of the manufacturing industries was sub stantially unchan ged as compared with the month of November. Textile plnnts are operating at fr0111 60% to 80% of their output record for the correspondin g period a year ago, the curtai lment being attributed largely to concessions granted to labor in the matter of shorter hours. A number of cotton mills report orders booked in such volume as to absorb their entire output for the next several months. Manufacturers of cottonseed products show the usual seasonal increase in vo lum e, despite the fact that prices of raw materials and labor costs are setting new high records. The demand for the highest grade of manufactured products continues to outrun the inquiry for the .lower pr iced articles, and there is no visible prospect of an early abatement of this tendency. TRADE: Wholesale Trade: In an effort to secure more definite data with respect to conditions in the wholesale trade, a questionnaire was l'ecently mailed to a number of representative wholesale houses in the Southwest, calling for comparative statistics of their operations for the month of December, stated in terms of percentual increases and decreases as compared with the months of November, 1919, and December, 1918. While the reports thus far received have been insufficient in number and geographical distribution to warrant their use in arriving at an accurate and representative group of averages for the district as a whole, they throw an interesting light on the general trend of wholesale operations in the particular localities which they represent, and, for that reason alone are reproduced below in the..,.form of consolidated a verages for each line of busin ess represented by the reporting firms: Month of December, 1919, Compared with December, 1918. Reporting lin es Sa les lllc. D ec. Grocer ies ...................................................................... 32 70 Furn iture .................................. - .................................. 50 0/0 ~~~g~~.~~~~ ..::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::l~~~ Selling prices Inc. Dec. 10.7% 25. % ~~: ~ Stocks at end of month Inc. Dec. 6.7% 20. % Unfi ll ed factolJr orders at end of month ' ' Inc. Dec. 250/0 250/0 14.8% 37% 20% 30% Auto supplies ............................ ............................ .... 50 % 10% 25% An effort is being made to broaden this survey with the view of obtaining a larger and more represent~tive list of reporting firms as a source of information concerning the monthly fluctuations in the statistical position of wholesale trade. Retail Trade: A survey similar to the one undertaken with respect to w holesale trade for the mon th of December was insti- , tuted with a view of obtaining statistics on the condition of retail trade, the latter yielding somewhat better results. In .response to inquiries directed to leading retail dealers in the district replies were received representin g a' sufficient number of firms and cities to make up what may be considered a fairly representative showin g for the "district, although with respect to some lines of trade the records of the r epo rting firms were not carried in such' form as to enable them to furnish the exact averages of the fluctuations in stocks on hand at the end of the mOl'iih, and unfilled wholesale ord ers, a nd in such cases the percen tages r epo rted for these items were based on estimgtes~ The tables appended below reflect the condition of trade in seven of the leading retail lines of business for the month of December, 1919, Table I showing percentual increases and decreases for that month as compared with the preceding month, and Table II showing the comparison with D ecember, 1918. The percentages shown in these tablcs were obtained by calculating the average of the percentages reported by all reporting firms in each line of trade. I. Month of December, 1919, Compared with November, 1919. Reporting lines- Sales Groceries ............................................................................................ .. Furniture .......................................................................................... .. Dry Goods ....................................................................................... . Clothing ............................................................................................. . Shoes ................................................................................................... . Iiardware ............................................................................................ Fal'ln Implen1ents .......................................................................... .. Combined .......................................................................................... .. Inc. Inc. Inc. Inc. Inc. Inc. Inc. Inc. 26% 36% 31% 41% 10% 18% 74% 34% Selling prices Inc. 5% Inc. 18% Inc. 15 % Inc. 2% Inc. 5% Stocks at end of month Inc. Dec. Inc. Dec. Dec. Dec. Dec. Dec. 4% 30/0 110/0 11 % 7% 20 % 3% 4% Unfilled wholesale orders at end of month Dec. 2% Inc. 3% Inc. 10% Inc. 8% Inc. 14% Inc. 10% Inc. 40% Inc. 12% II. Month of December, 1919, Compared with December, 1918. Reporting lines- Sales Groccries .............................................................................................. l~ urniture ............................................................................................ Dry Goods ........................................................................................ Clothing .............................................................................................. Shoes .................................................................................................... Hardware ............................................................................................ Farm Implements ..................... :...................................................... Con1bined ............................................................................................ Inc. Inc. Inc. Inc. Inc. Inc. Inc. Inc. 39% 86% 91 % 46% 33% 66% 51 % 59% Selling prices ................ Inc. 31% Inc. 20% Inc. 21% Inc. 31% Inc. 13% Inc. 3% Inc. 17% Stocks at end of month Inc. Inc. Inc. Inc. Inc. Inc. Inc. Inc. 12 % 22% 21% 2% 5% 17% 28% 15% Unfilled wholesale orders' at end of month Dec. 20% Inc. 7% Inc. 150/0 Inc. 64% Inc. 23% Inc. 20% Inc. 50% Inc. 23% BANKING AND FINANCE: Comparative figures showing the principal items of assets and liabilities of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas on November 29th and December 31, 1919, are as follow s: Nov. 29 Dec. 31st $ 59,411,000 Total Cash Reserves ...................................................................... ................................................ $ 61,038,000 Bills Discounted, Members ..................................................................................................... _... 44,065,000 58,316,000 Bills Purchased ................................................................................ ................................................ 12,803,000 6,420,000 Net Deposits .................................................................................................................................... 106,545,000 107,662,000 F. R. Note Circulation .................................................................................................................... 69,787,000 74,930,000 Ratio of Reserves to Combined Note and Deposit Liability ................................................ 51% 48% During the period from November 7th, 1919, to January 2nd, 1920, the following changes appeared in the condition reports of 44 member banks located in the principal cities of this district: Nov. 7 Jan. 2 Inc. Dec. U. S. Securities Owned ...........................................................................$ 59,000,000 $ 70,000,000 17% Cash Reserves ......................... ........................................................................ 35,000,000 39,000,000 11% Loans and Investments ............................................................................. 235,000,000 258,000,000 10% Total Deposits .............................................................................................. 249,000,000 297,000,000 20% Bills Payable due F. R. Bank............. ................................................ ....... 23,000,000 12,000,000 50% The advance in discount rates of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas effective early in November apparently had but little, if any, effect upon the volume of its discount operations during November and December, demonstrating the comparative freedom of this district from speculative loans of serious magnitude. While the advance was followed by a heavy liquidation of paper discounted fot reserve city banks, the retirement seems to have been the logical result of their heavy growth in deposits. Liquidation from this source was more than offset by the December demand from interior banks, which, despite the advance in the Federal Reserve rates, rediscounted freely for the purpose of financing the early preparations for the 1920 operations of farmers and cattle raisers. Bank clearings in the principal cities showed a substantial growth, both for the month of D ecember and the year 1919, as evidenced by the following statistics: DECEMBER TWELVE MONTHS 1918 Austin ................$ 12,975,434 6,138,245 Beaumont Dallas ................ 110,758,577 El Paso -_.......... 20,781 ,340 Fort Worth .... 58,155,277 Galveston ...... .... 29,096,247 Houston 76,060,649 Shreveport .. ...... 13,561,914 Waco .................. 11,288,431 1919 $ 8,827,632 7,311,411 193,279,859 32,329,904 102,386,742 43,237,103 146,648,457 22,737,166 ]5,479,000 Inc. or Dec. Dec. 32.0% Inc. 15.8% Inc. 75.4% Inc. 55.6% Inc. 76.1% Inc. 48.6% Inc. 92.8% Inc. 67.7% Inc. 9.1% Total ............ $338,816,114 $572,237,274 Inc. 68.8% 1918 Austin ................$ 185,372,224 Beaumont .._-_ ... 68,216,730 Dallas ................ 1,076,092,264 E1 Paso ............ 226,641,693 Fort Worth .... 694,451,202 Galveston ........ 287,382,862 Houston ............ 796,351,625 Shreveport ........ 132,002,71 ] Waco ........ -...... - 138,579,497 Total .............. $3,605,090,808 1919 70,361,813 ] ,63] ,376, 165 308,861,839 900,098,820 397,359,563 1,117,571,425 175,859,143 148,213,082 Inc. 15.3% 3.1% 51.6% 36.3% 29.6% 42.7% 40.3% 33.2% 6.9% $4,963,429,899 37.6% $ 213,728,049 \Nhile reliabl~ statistics are not available at this time with. respect to the output of new issues of stocks and bonds in December, a survey of the new financing accomplished in this district during the year 1919 discloses the 'fact that the State of Texas is taking it le~ding part in the processes of reconstruction, as is evidenced by its 1920 program for public highway improvements. Carefully compiled records show' that from January 1, 1919, to January 1, 1920, a total of $79,983,000 in bonds for road building purposes was voted by Texas counties, a total of 109 counties voting bond issues during the year. D alla s County led the list with $6,500,000, with Eas tland County, in the center of the North Texas o il fields, a close second with $4,500,000. LABOR: Current reports indicate that on the whole there is still a shortage of lab or in the district, although complaints to this effect are beginning to be less frequently hea rd. The most serious shortage is in agriculture, farmers finding it increas in gly difficult to compete for labo r with the oil fields, construction enterprises and other industries where high wages, short hours and not infrequently the bonus system, combin e to attract labor to the industrial centers and away from the farms. Manufacturing plants report the labor supply inadequate, while in mining and transpo rtation the supply is practically sufficient for all requirements. FAILURES: Only 16 suspens ions we re reported in December, involving liabilities aggregatin g' $186,817.00, which, with the exception of September, 1919, is the best month's record the district has made for the past three years. The tota l number of failures during 1919 was 322, as compared with 423 for 1918 and 684 for 1917. A comparative tabulation of the monthly suspensions for 1918 and 1919 is g iven below: Jan uary ................................................................................................................................ February .............................................................................................................................. March .................................................................................................................................... April .................... ......... ..................................................................................................... May ...................................................................................................................................... June ...................................................................................................................................... July .............. ....................................................................................... .................... ............ August .. ........................ ..................................................................................................... September .............................................................................................. .................. :......... October ................................................................................................................................ Novemb er ............... .......................................................................................................... December .... .............................................................................................. ...................... No. 48 41 31 32 31 33 33 46 33 30 32 33 1918 Liabilities $ 455,538 288,227 192,997 251,858 262,671 470,752 311,032 298,340 272,521 410,202 293,019 1,191,850 No. 48 41 17 24 35 31 23 30 7 22 28 16 1919 Liabilities $ 695,082 930,894 252,971 226,206 304,739 210,444 261,727 249,603 48,883 263,516 253,516 186,817 Totals .......................................................................................................................... 423 $4,699,007 322 $3,884,398 BUILDING: Building permits issued in the principal cities during December totaled 1,550 i:n number, representing, valuation aggregating $8,158,138 as compared with 1,587 and $5,111,726 for November, 1919, and 942 permits with valuation amounting to $472,431 for the month of D ecember, 1918. The record for the year 1919 shows an average increase in valuations of 307% over 1918, and reflects the magnitude of the movement now under way to m ee t the housing demands of the increased populations in these cities. The following tables show the comparative operations reported by the larger cities of the district for the months of December, 1918, and 1919, and also the total for 1918 and 1919. No. 7 Austin Beaumont ...... 40 Dallas ............ 33 E1 Paso .......... 65 Fort Worth .... 38 Galves ton ..... .415 Houston .. ...... 172 San Antonio .. 1l8 Shreveport .... 54 Total... ....... 942 DECEMBER 1918 1919 Inc. or No. Dec. 6 $ 14,020 +312.3 $ 3,400 35,583 48 32,004 -10.0 6 1,635 191 3,164,600 +5,034.4 52,668 87 237,385 +350.7 53,312 166 3,071,270 +5,698.4 15,062 316 31,464 +108.8 149,784 380 542,715 +262.3 299,190 82,963 149 +260.6 207 765,510 +4,147.1 18,024 $472,431 1,550 $8,158,138 + 1,626.8 TWELVE MONTHS 1918 1919 No. No. Austin ............ 102 $ 252,6 15 145 $ 250,317 Beaumont ...... 865 1,304,421 968 1,057,074 Dallas 555 1,667,729 1,599 13,921,565 E1 Paso .......... 1,030 .646,149 1,242 2,245,587 Fort Worth .... 630 2,067,887 2,000 19,053,157 Galveston ...... 3,957 175,614 5,720 666,272 Houston ....... .2,227 2,222,151 4,066 6,874,380 San Antonio .. 2,612 3,756,344 2,710 3,973,330 Shreveport .... 593 552,257 1,637 3,538,386 Inc. or Dec. -.9 -18.9 +734.7 +247.5 +821.3 +279.3 +209.3 +5.7 +540.7 Tota1... ..... 12,571 $ 12,645, 179 20,087 $51 ,580,068 +307.1 POSTOFFICE RECEIPTS: Receipts at the larger postoffices for the year 1918 and 1919 were as follows: Percentage 1918 1919 Inc. or Dec. ~~11~~ ..::::::::::':::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::.:::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::$l,~~~:t~~:gg .·.·. ·. · . . .· . . . . . .·. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ..l:!illnH BI Paso ........................................................................... ....................................... _ 400,543.00 ~~:~i:~~; .·.· . Total.. ........... :................................................................................................$5,951 ,087.00 $ 250,749.00 2,206,458.00 435,258.00 947,542.00 1,167,825.00 926,130.00 252,439.00 19.3 8.7 12.5 13.4 $6,186,401.00 3.9 6.4 19.1 39.3