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Federal Reserve Bank

--- 1bhSr-Ffl nancial Data
JUL

0

1

1985

June 27,1985

Interest rates have declined substantially over the past
three months (see pages 6 and 7); for example, rates on federal
funds, 30-day commercial paper and 3-month Treasury bills have
declined more than 150 basis points since the middle of March.
Over the same period, the money stock (Ml) has risen at an 11.7
percent annual rate. This combination of fast money growth and
declines in interest rates is often considered to represent the
usual short-run relationship between money growth and interest
rates. While this pattern does occur from time to time, it does
not describe the typical short-run relationship between interest
rates and money growth over the past year and a half.
The table on the back page presents data on Ml growth and
changes in short-term interest rates over three-month periods
since the end of 1983. The evidence indicates that the most
recent period is an anomaly when compared to prior periods. In
general, faster Ml growth has been accompanied by rising interest
rates and slower Ml growth by stable or declining rates. For
example, the largest declines in rates occurred during the period
of slowest M1 growth.
(continued on back page)
DUE TO THE HOLIDAY ON THURSDAY, NEXT
WEEK'S RELEASE WILL BE PUBLISHED LATE.
—Courtenay C. Stone

THE
FEDERAL
A RESERVE
JZk
RANK of
nf ST. ■ x >■ is


views expressed do not necessarily reflect official positions of the Federal Reserve System.
http://fraser.stlouisfed.org
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

2

ADJUSTED MONETARY BASE
AVERAGES OF DAILY FIGURES
SEASONALLY ADJUSTED BY THIS BANK

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
234
232

BILLIONS
MAY

22

224.8
225.0
227.8
229.3
227.0

230
228
226
224
222

220
218
216
214

212
210
208
206
I I I I
2 16 90 IS 27

JUN

It

2S

8 22

5 IB

3 IT 31

14 28 12 28

NOV

JUL

LATEST DATA PLOTTED WEEK ENDING. JUNE 26.

0

DEC

6 20

6 20

3 IT

FEB

MAR

APR

1

IS 20 12

1985

THE ADJUSTED MONETARY BASE IS THE SUM OF RESERVE ACCOUNTS OF FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS AT FEDERAL
RESERVE BANKS, CURRENCY IN CIRCULATION (CURRENCY HELD BY THE PUBLIC AND IN THE VAULTS OFALL
THE MAJOR
DEPOSITORY INSTITUTIONS) AND AN ADJUSTMENT FOR RESERVE REQUIREMENT RATIO CHANGES.
SOURCP OF THE ADJUSTED MONETARY BASE IS FEDERAL RESERVE CREDIT.
DATA ARE COMPUTED BY THIS
BANK.
A DETAILED DESCRIPTION OF THE ADJUSTED MONETARY BASE IS AVAILABLE FROM THIS BANK.
RECENT DATA ARE PRELIMINARY.
ADJUSTED MONETARY BASE
COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE ,
6/27/84

9/26/84 11/28/B4 12/26/84

AVERAGE OF FOUR WEEKS ENDING:
Z23/85

2/27/85

3/27/85

4/24/85

8.2
7.3
7.4
9.5

10.2
9.2
11.6

6.7
10.5

12.8

TO THE AVERAGE
OF FOUR WEEKS
EWING:
11/28/B4
12/26/84
1Z23/85
2/27/85
3/27/85
4/24/85
5/29/85
6/28/85

3.8
3.8
5.0
4.7
5.7
5.7
5.9
6.9


http://fraser.stlouisfed.org
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

3.4
5.7
5.0
6.5
6.4
6.6
7.8

8.4
6.2
8.3
7.7
7.7
9.2

7.4
9.7
8.7
8.5
10. 1

PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS

MONEY STOCK ( Ml )

AVERAGES OF DAILY FIGURES
SEASONALLY ADJUSTED

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS

1955.

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
600

BILLION?

595

577.9
582.3
585.0
585.9
590.8
589.3

590
585
580
575
570
565
560
555
550

4

MAY

IS

2

IS 90 IS 27 10 24

JUN

AUG

8 22

5 10

3 17 91

SEP

14 28 II

JAN

LATEST DATA PLOTTED WEEK ENDING, JUNE 17,

25 11

FEB

29

8 22

MAR

6 20

3 17

MAY

JUN

1985

CURRENT DATA APPEAR IN THE BOARD OF GOVERNORS' H.6 RELEASE.
Mils,™E.swofcurrencyheld BY
DEPOSITS AND TRAVELERS CHECKS.

the nonbam< public,

demand deposits,

other checkable

MONEY STOCK (Ml )
COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE ,
6/18/84

9/17/84 11/19/84 12/17/84

AVERAGE OF FOUR WEEKS ENDING:

1/14/85

2/18/85

3/18/85

4/15/85

10.8
9. 1
8.8
11.3

9.2
8.8
12.1

6.9
11 .7

14.7

TO THE AVERAGE
OF FOUR WEEKS
ENDING:
11/19/84
12/17/84
1/14/85
2/18/85
3/18/85
4/15/85
5/20/85
6/17/85

2.5
3.5
5. 1
5.6
6.4
6.3
6.5
7.7


http://fraser.stlouisfed.org
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

3.2
6.1
6.7
7.7
7.4
7.5
9.0

12.4
1 1 .0
1 1.6
10.3
9.9
11.6

12.0
12.4
10.7
10. 1
12.0

PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS

3

4

MONEY MULTIPLIER^
CURRENCY COMPONENT OF MONEY STOCK v
AVERAGES OF DAILY FIGURES
SEASONALLY ADJUSTED
1
1985
- MAY

2.9

1- - - - - - RATIfl

2.8

JUN.
96

.

_J

0

*-

Ml MU

2.7

■R

A
V

u

y-

S'

y

2.4

!lll 111

MM- Ill

1 1.1

1111

111 -LLLL 111

111

111 ini

111

■ 11

0

LATEST DATA PLOTTED WEEK ENDING: JUNE 17, 1985
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
168

COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RATES
OF CHANGE. AVERAGE OF
.
the four Weeks ending
JUNE 17. 1985 FROM
THE FOUR WEEKS ENDING:
APR.
•*“

15,
“

1985
1985
1985
1985
1984
1984
1984

“JAN
“ SEP
— JUN

9.3
7.
7.6
7.6
7.2
6.3
6.6

166

164

162
CURRENCY

.

160

1955
MAY

4

18

2

18 SO

IS 27

AUG

10 24

8 22

5 19

S 17 SI

SEP
1984

LATEST DATA PLOTTED WEEK ENDING: JUNE 17,

14 28 II

JAN

25

FEB

II

13

BILLIONS
62.5
163.2
163.7
163.5
164.3
164.5

■U-iilml in luii

MAR

MAY

JUN

1985
1985

1/ RATIO OF MONEY STOCK (Ml ) TO ADJUSTED MONETARY BASE
2/ CURRENT DATA APPEAR IN THE BOARD OF GOVERNORS' H.6 RELEASE.


http://fraser.stlouisfed.org
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS

154

152

TOTAL CHECKABLE DEPOSITS
AVERAGES OF DAILY FIGURES
SEASONALLY ADJUSTED

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
430

BiLLLONS
415.8
416.9
421 .0

4

18

2 16 SO 13 27 10 24

AUG

8 22

5 10

3 17 31

SEP

14 28 II

JAN

25 11

FEB

25

6 22

6 20

3 17

I

13 20

MAR
1985

LATEST DATA PLOTTED WEEK ENDING: JUNE 17.

1985

TOTALtCHECKABLE|DEPOSITS IS THE SUM OF DEMAND DEPOSITS AND OTHER CHECKABLE DEPOSITS AT ALL

TOTAL CHECKABLE DEPOSITS
COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE , AVERAGE OF FOUR WEEKS ENDING:
6/18/84

9/17/84 11/19/84 12/17/84

1/14/85

2/18/85

3/18/85

4/15/85

1 1 .9
10.0
9.6
12.8

10.5
9.7
13.9

7.3
13.5

17.0

TO THE AVERAGE
OF FOUR WEEKS
ENDING:
11/19/84
12/17/84
1/14/85
2/18/85
3/18/85
4/15/85
5/20/85
6/17/85

1.2
2.4
4.7
5.3
6.3
6.3
6.5
8. 1


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Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

2.6
6.7
7.3
8.4
8. 1
8.2
10. 1

15.1
12.8
13.4
1 1 .9
1 1 .3
13.4

14.4
14.6
12.5
11 .6
14.0

PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS

5

6

YIELDS ON SELECTED SECURITIES
AVERAGES OF DAILY RATES

PERCENT
15.0 r—

PERCENT
— 15.0

CORPORATE
Aaa BONDS

PRIME BANK
LOAN RATE
JNICIPAL
BONDS

I I I I
4 18

MAY

1

IS 29 13 27

JUN

JUL

10 24

7 21

AUG
SEP
1984

5 10

OCT

2

10 90

NOV

14 28 II

DEC

JAN

25

8 22

FEB

8 22

MAR

5 10

APR
1985

3 17 31

MAY

LATEST DATA PLOTTED ARE AVERAGES OF RATES AVAILABLE FOR THE WEEK ENDINGt JUNE 28,

1985
MAY

3
10
17
24
31
JUNE
7
14
21
28 *
JULY
5
12
19
26

NOTE:

14 28 12 26

JUN

JUL

1985.

90 DAY
CD’S

30-DAY
C0U4ERC1AL
PAPER

90-DAY
BANKERS’
ACCEPTANCES

CORPORATE
Aaa BONDS

CORPORATE
Baa BONDS

MUNICIPAL
BONDS XX

8.29
8. 14
8.04
7.64
7.56
7.39
7.49
7.29
7.64

8.15
8.00
7.93
7.52
7.46
7.37
7.41
7.13
7.44

8. 15
8.05
7.86
7.53
7.45
7.32
7.39
7.21
7.48

12.15
12.03
11 .77
11.50
11.27
10.93
10.88
10.86
11.10

13.44
13.39
13.24
13.02
12.69
12.36
12.32
12.37
12.56

9.37
9. 1 1
8.86
8.91
8.81
8.60
8.66
8.69
N.A.

CURRENT DATA APPEAR IN THE BOARD OF GOVERNORS’ H.15 RELEASE.

X AVERAGES OF RATES AVAILABLE

** BOM) BUYER’S AVERAGE INDEX OF 20 MUNICIPAL BONDS, THURSDAY DATA
N.A. - NOT AVAILABLE


http://fraser.stlouisfed.org
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS

SELECTED

INTEREST RATES

AVERAGES OF DAILY RATES

PERCENT

TREASURY

PERCENT

RITIES

RATE

TREASUf

4 IS

I

MAY

JUN

IS 20 13 27 10 24
JUL

AUG

7 21

S 10

SEP

OCT

2 IS SO 14 28 II 23
NOV

DEC

JAN

8 22
FEB

8 22
MAR

1984

3 10
APR

LATEST DATA PLOTTED ARE AVERAGES OF RATES AVAILABLE FOR THE WEEK ENDING:

1985
MAY

3
10
17
24
31
JUNE
7
14
21
28 X
JULY
5
12
19
26

3 17 31

14 28 12 26

MAY

JUN

JUL

1985
JUNE 28,

1985.

FEDERAL
FUNDS X*

3-MONTH
TREASURY
BILL

6-MONTH
TREASURY
BILL iau

1-YEAR
TREASURY
BILL

5-YEAR
TREASURY
SECURITIES

LONG-TERM
TREASURY
SECURITIES

8.35
8. 19
8. 14
7.91
7.60
7.75
7.62
7.13
7.46

7.78
7.76
7.50
7.25
7.19
7.01
7.03
6.81
7.05

8. 1 1
7.93
7.90
7.43
7.39
7.16
7.35
6.90
7.24

8.25
8.09
7.90
7.63
7.53
7.25
7.31
7.14
7.44

10.85
10.68
10.39
10.06
9.84
9.45
9.60
9.50
9.89

11.49
11.36
11.13
10.89
10.70
10.38
10.45
10.41
10.75

NOTEi
CURRENT DATA APPEAR IN THE BOARD OF GOVERNORS' H.15 RELEASE EXCLUDING LONG-TERM TREASURY
«AVERAGESUOFT|lAfESHAVAIL?lLE0MPUTED BY ™'S “**■
™MSURY BILL YIELDSARE ONA OISCOUNTBASIS.

**#BEuct7onYaverag£EPSCOUNT*


http://fraser.stlouisfed.org
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

e,®ing

™° D*YS EARLIER THA* D*TE

PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS

7

8
COMMERCIAL BANK
SMALL TIME DEPOSITS^
LARGE TIME DEPOSITS v
AVERAGES OF DAILY FIGURES
SEASONALLY ADJUSTED

_

isas.
MAY

BILLIONS

13
20
27

389.3
390.0
390.7

10
17

390.
390.4

in i

_

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
410

i- i- i, l

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
410

■

SMALL TIME 5EP0SIT S

-

—

-

i

i i

i i

i

i

i

370

!lll _LLL

1111

111

JXL iUJj -LJ..L,

1 1 1 1

ii i

1 1 1 1

ill j-i i

1 1 1

1 1 1

1 1 1 1

J

LATEST DATA PLOTTED WEEK ENDINGt JUNE 17,
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
285

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS

BILLIONS.
MAY

13

280

273.4
270.8
269.4

275
LARGE TIME DEPOSITS

268.8

270
265
260
255
250
245
240

4 18

MAY

JUN

2

16 SO 19 27 10 24

AUG

8 22

5 10

3

LATEST DATA PLOTTED WEEK ENDINGt JUNE 17.

17 31

14 28 II

JAN

SEP

25 11

FEB

MAR

25

8 22

MAY

JUN

1985

1/ TIME DEPOSITS ISSUED IN DENOMINATIONS OF LESS THAN 8100,000
2/ TIME DEPOSITS ISSUED IN DENOMINATIONS OF 8100,000 OR MORE


http://fraser.stlouisfed.org
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS

COMMERCIAL BANK
TOTAL TIME DEPOSITS
AVERAGES OF DAILY FIGURES
SEASONALLY ADJUSTED

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS

1S&5

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
800

BILLIONS
783.0
782.3
782.0
780.8
779.6
781 . I

4 18

2 16 50 IS 27 10 24

AUG

8 22

5 10

5 17 31

SEP
1984

14 28 11

JAN

25 11

FEB

25

8 22

6 20

3 17

MAR

LATEST DATA PLOTTED WEEK ENDINGt JUNE 17, 1985
TOTAL TIME IS THE SUM OF SAVINGS DEPOSITS, SMALL TIME DEPOSITS AND LARGE TIME DEPOSITS.

TOTAL TIME DEPOSITS
COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE , AVERAGE OF FOUR WEEKS ENDING:
6/18/84

9/17/84 11/19/84 12/17/84

1/14/85

2/18/85

3/18/85

4/15/85

8.7
8.7
5.8

9.9
5.7

3.2

TO THE AVERAGE
OF FOUR WEEKS
ENDING*.
11/19/84
12/17/84
1/14/85
2/18/85
3/18/85
4/15/85
5/20/85
8/17/85

8.3
7. 1
6. 1
4.0
4.2
4.9
5.3
4.6


http://fraser.stlouisfed.org
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

5.1
3.8
1.1
1.8
3.1
3.8
3.1

0.3
-2.9
-0.9
1.4
2.7
1 .9

-4.4
-1.3
1.6
3. 1
2.1

-1.9
2.1
3.9
2.6

PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS

9

10

BORROWINGS FROM FEDERAL RESERVE BANKS
AVERAGES OF DAILY FIGURES

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
10.0 ------------- -----------r—

ILL IONS OF DOLLARS

T--------- I-----------1985

10.0

MILLIONS
22
29

1474
1174

19

1427

TOTAL BORROWINGS

LATEST DATA PLOTTED WEEK ENDING: JUNE 26, 1985
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS

1SS5.
ADJUSTMENT + SEASONAL BORROWINGS

2

18 90 19 27 11

JUN

29

8 22

9 10

JUL

9 17 91

14 28 12 26

NOV

DEC

0 29

6 20

6 20

9 17

FEB

MAR

APR

MILLIONS

22

1291

5

721

I

19 20 12 26 10 24

LATEST DATA PLOTTED WEEK ENDING: JUNE 26, 1985
1/ 04.562 FOR 5/16/84, 03.790 FOR 5/23/84, 02.989 FOR 5/30/84t 03.120 FOR 6/6/84


http://fraser.stlouisfed.org
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS

r*

MMDAS,

MMMFS AND SUPER NOWS

(BILLIONS OF DOLLARS, NOT SEASONALLY ADJUSTED)

April
May

$56.1
53.9
54.7
54.6
54.6
54.3
55.7
57.2
56.9

$235.7
236.4
232.8
234.8
234.8
238.2
238.3
239.3
242.2

$295.2
293.9
294.6
296.7
298.6
300.3
303.0
306.0
307.7

22
29
6
13
20
27
3
10
17

Super NOWs 3/

MMMFs 2/

MMDAs 1/

1/ Money market deposit accounts at commercial banks, effective 12/14/82
narket mutual fund balances
3/ NOW accounts at all depository institutions, requiring a $1,000 minimum balance
~ and eligible to earn more than 5.25 percent, effective 1/5/85

BUSINESS LOANS v
(COMMERCIAL

AND

INDUSTRIAL )

WEEKLY REPORT ING LARGE COMMERCIAL BANKS 2/
SEASONALLY ADJUSTED BY THIS BANK

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS

COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RATES
- ur
OF CHANGE, AVERAGE ur
OF
- THE onANuc,
FOUR ilEEKS ENDING
— ourac i c. i sou rnum
- THE FOUrt WEEKS ENDING'
-1.9

APR. 10,
MAR. 13,
DEC. 12,
- SEP. 12,
__ JUN. 13,

MILLIONS

256,003
256,129
JUN.

5

1 1 1 1 I I I
2

16 30 13 27 11

JUN

25

8 22

JUL

5 10

3 17 31

14 28 12 26

NOV

0 23

DEC

6 20

6 20

FEB

MAR

255,043

1 I I I I 1 1 1.1J-LL
3 17

I

IS 20 12 23 10 24

LATEST DATA PLOTTED WEEK ENDING. JUNE 12. 1985
1/ BUSINESS LOANS INCLUDE BANKERS' ACCEPTANCES AND COMMERCIAL PAPER.
2/ BANKS WITH DOMESTIC ASSETS GREATER THAN 81.4 BILLION


http://fraser.stlouisfed.org
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS

11

Ml Growth and Basis Point Changes in
Selected Short-Term Interest Rates

Period
12/19/83
3/19/84
6/18/84
9/17/84
12/17/84
3/18/85

-

3/19/84
6/18/84
9/17/84
12/17/84
3/18/85
6/17/85

Mil/
6.8%
7.1
3.7
3.2
12.4
11.7

3 0-day
3-month
Federal
commercial Treasury
funds 2/
1/
bill
paper
42
145
-3
-347
76
-162

28
92
9
-295
60
-159

76
15
38
-248
70
-170

1/ Compounded annual rates, seasonally adjusted, from four-week
averages of Ml ending dates shown
2/ Weekly averages ending two days later than dates shown
3/ Weekly averages ending four days later than dates shown


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Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis