Full text of U.S. Financial Data : June 27, 1985
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Federal Reserve Bank --- 1bhSr-Ffl nancial Data JUL 0 1 1985 June 27,1985 Interest rates have declined substantially over the past three months (see pages 6 and 7); for example, rates on federal funds, 30-day commercial paper and 3-month Treasury bills have declined more than 150 basis points since the middle of March. Over the same period, the money stock (Ml) has risen at an 11.7 percent annual rate. This combination of fast money growth and declines in interest rates is often considered to represent the usual short-run relationship between money growth and interest rates. While this pattern does occur from time to time, it does not describe the typical short-run relationship between interest rates and money growth over the past year and a half. The table on the back page presents data on Ml growth and changes in short-term interest rates over three-month periods since the end of 1983. The evidence indicates that the most recent period is an anomaly when compared to prior periods. In general, faster Ml growth has been accompanied by rising interest rates and slower Ml growth by stable or declining rates. For example, the largest declines in rates occurred during the period of slowest M1 growth. (continued on back page) DUE TO THE HOLIDAY ON THURSDAY, NEXT WEEK'S RELEASE WILL BE PUBLISHED LATE. —Courtenay C. Stone THE FEDERAL A RESERVE JZk RANK of nf ST. ■ x >■ is views expressed do not necessarily reflect official positions of the Federal Reserve System. http://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 2 ADJUSTED MONETARY BASE AVERAGES OF DAILY FIGURES SEASONALLY ADJUSTED BY THIS BANK BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 234 232 BILLIONS MAY 22 224.8 225.0 227.8 229.3 227.0 230 228 226 224 222 220 218 216 214 212 210 208 206 I I I I 2 16 90 IS 27 JUN It 2S 8 22 5 IB 3 IT 31 14 28 12 28 NOV JUL LATEST DATA PLOTTED WEEK ENDING. JUNE 26. 0 DEC 6 20 6 20 3 IT FEB MAR APR 1 IS 20 12 1985 THE ADJUSTED MONETARY BASE IS THE SUM OF RESERVE ACCOUNTS OF FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS AT FEDERAL RESERVE BANKS, CURRENCY IN CIRCULATION (CURRENCY HELD BY THE PUBLIC AND IN THE VAULTS OFALL THE MAJOR DEPOSITORY INSTITUTIONS) AND AN ADJUSTMENT FOR RESERVE REQUIREMENT RATIO CHANGES. SOURCP OF THE ADJUSTED MONETARY BASE IS FEDERAL RESERVE CREDIT. DATA ARE COMPUTED BY THIS BANK. A DETAILED DESCRIPTION OF THE ADJUSTED MONETARY BASE IS AVAILABLE FROM THIS BANK. RECENT DATA ARE PRELIMINARY. ADJUSTED MONETARY BASE COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE , 6/27/84 9/26/84 11/28/B4 12/26/84 AVERAGE OF FOUR WEEKS ENDING: Z23/85 2/27/85 3/27/85 4/24/85 8.2 7.3 7.4 9.5 10.2 9.2 11.6 6.7 10.5 12.8 TO THE AVERAGE OF FOUR WEEKS EWING: 11/28/B4 12/26/84 1Z23/85 2/27/85 3/27/85 4/24/85 5/29/85 6/28/85 3.8 3.8 5.0 4.7 5.7 5.7 5.9 6.9 http://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 3.4 5.7 5.0 6.5 6.4 6.6 7.8 8.4 6.2 8.3 7.7 7.7 9.2 7.4 9.7 8.7 8.5 10. 1 PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS MONEY STOCK ( Ml ) AVERAGES OF DAILY FIGURES SEASONALLY ADJUSTED BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 1955. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 600 BILLION? 595 577.9 582.3 585.0 585.9 590.8 589.3 590 585 580 575 570 565 560 555 550 4 MAY IS 2 IS 90 IS 27 10 24 JUN AUG 8 22 5 10 3 17 91 SEP 14 28 II JAN LATEST DATA PLOTTED WEEK ENDING, JUNE 17, 25 11 FEB 29 8 22 MAR 6 20 3 17 MAY JUN 1985 CURRENT DATA APPEAR IN THE BOARD OF GOVERNORS' H.6 RELEASE. Mils,™E.swofcurrencyheld BY DEPOSITS AND TRAVELERS CHECKS. the nonbam< public, demand deposits, other checkable MONEY STOCK (Ml ) COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE , 6/18/84 9/17/84 11/19/84 12/17/84 AVERAGE OF FOUR WEEKS ENDING: 1/14/85 2/18/85 3/18/85 4/15/85 10.8 9. 1 8.8 11.3 9.2 8.8 12.1 6.9 11 .7 14.7 TO THE AVERAGE OF FOUR WEEKS ENDING: 11/19/84 12/17/84 1/14/85 2/18/85 3/18/85 4/15/85 5/20/85 6/17/85 2.5 3.5 5. 1 5.6 6.4 6.3 6.5 7.7 http://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 3.2 6.1 6.7 7.7 7.4 7.5 9.0 12.4 1 1 .0 1 1.6 10.3 9.9 11.6 12.0 12.4 10.7 10. 1 12.0 PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS 3 4 MONEY MULTIPLIER^ CURRENCY COMPONENT OF MONEY STOCK v AVERAGES OF DAILY FIGURES SEASONALLY ADJUSTED 1 1985 - MAY 2.9 1- - - - - - RATIfl 2.8 JUN. 96 . _J 0 *- Ml MU 2.7 ■R A V u y- S' y 2.4 !lll 111 MM- Ill 1 1.1 1111 111 -LLLL 111 111 111 ini 111 ■ 11 0 LATEST DATA PLOTTED WEEK ENDING: JUNE 17, 1985 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 168 COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE. AVERAGE OF . the four Weeks ending JUNE 17. 1985 FROM THE FOUR WEEKS ENDING: APR. •*“ 15, “ 1985 1985 1985 1985 1984 1984 1984 “JAN “ SEP — JUN 9.3 7. 7.6 7.6 7.2 6.3 6.6 166 164 162 CURRENCY . 160 1955 MAY 4 18 2 18 SO IS 27 AUG 10 24 8 22 5 19 S 17 SI SEP 1984 LATEST DATA PLOTTED WEEK ENDING: JUNE 17, 14 28 II JAN 25 FEB II 13 BILLIONS 62.5 163.2 163.7 163.5 164.3 164.5 ■U-iilml in luii MAR MAY JUN 1985 1985 1/ RATIO OF MONEY STOCK (Ml ) TO ADJUSTED MONETARY BASE 2/ CURRENT DATA APPEAR IN THE BOARD OF GOVERNORS' H.6 RELEASE. http://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS 154 152 TOTAL CHECKABLE DEPOSITS AVERAGES OF DAILY FIGURES SEASONALLY ADJUSTED BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 430 BiLLLONS 415.8 416.9 421 .0 4 18 2 16 SO 13 27 10 24 AUG 8 22 5 10 3 17 31 SEP 14 28 II JAN 25 11 FEB 25 6 22 6 20 3 17 I 13 20 MAR 1985 LATEST DATA PLOTTED WEEK ENDING: JUNE 17. 1985 TOTALtCHECKABLE|DEPOSITS IS THE SUM OF DEMAND DEPOSITS AND OTHER CHECKABLE DEPOSITS AT ALL TOTAL CHECKABLE DEPOSITS COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE , AVERAGE OF FOUR WEEKS ENDING: 6/18/84 9/17/84 11/19/84 12/17/84 1/14/85 2/18/85 3/18/85 4/15/85 1 1 .9 10.0 9.6 12.8 10.5 9.7 13.9 7.3 13.5 17.0 TO THE AVERAGE OF FOUR WEEKS ENDING: 11/19/84 12/17/84 1/14/85 2/18/85 3/18/85 4/15/85 5/20/85 6/17/85 1.2 2.4 4.7 5.3 6.3 6.3 6.5 8. 1 http://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 2.6 6.7 7.3 8.4 8. 1 8.2 10. 1 15.1 12.8 13.4 1 1 .9 1 1 .3 13.4 14.4 14.6 12.5 11 .6 14.0 PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS 5 6 YIELDS ON SELECTED SECURITIES AVERAGES OF DAILY RATES PERCENT 15.0 r— PERCENT — 15.0 CORPORATE Aaa BONDS PRIME BANK LOAN RATE JNICIPAL BONDS I I I I 4 18 MAY 1 IS 29 13 27 JUN JUL 10 24 7 21 AUG SEP 1984 5 10 OCT 2 10 90 NOV 14 28 II DEC JAN 25 8 22 FEB 8 22 MAR 5 10 APR 1985 3 17 31 MAY LATEST DATA PLOTTED ARE AVERAGES OF RATES AVAILABLE FOR THE WEEK ENDINGt JUNE 28, 1985 MAY 3 10 17 24 31 JUNE 7 14 21 28 * JULY 5 12 19 26 NOTE: 14 28 12 26 JUN JUL 1985. 90 DAY CD’S 30-DAY C0U4ERC1AL PAPER 90-DAY BANKERS’ ACCEPTANCES CORPORATE Aaa BONDS CORPORATE Baa BONDS MUNICIPAL BONDS XX 8.29 8. 14 8.04 7.64 7.56 7.39 7.49 7.29 7.64 8.15 8.00 7.93 7.52 7.46 7.37 7.41 7.13 7.44 8. 15 8.05 7.86 7.53 7.45 7.32 7.39 7.21 7.48 12.15 12.03 11 .77 11.50 11.27 10.93 10.88 10.86 11.10 13.44 13.39 13.24 13.02 12.69 12.36 12.32 12.37 12.56 9.37 9. 1 1 8.86 8.91 8.81 8.60 8.66 8.69 N.A. CURRENT DATA APPEAR IN THE BOARD OF GOVERNORS’ H.15 RELEASE. X AVERAGES OF RATES AVAILABLE ** BOM) BUYER’S AVERAGE INDEX OF 20 MUNICIPAL BONDS, THURSDAY DATA N.A. - NOT AVAILABLE http://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS SELECTED INTEREST RATES AVERAGES OF DAILY RATES PERCENT TREASURY PERCENT RITIES RATE TREASUf 4 IS I MAY JUN IS 20 13 27 10 24 JUL AUG 7 21 S 10 SEP OCT 2 IS SO 14 28 II 23 NOV DEC JAN 8 22 FEB 8 22 MAR 1984 3 10 APR LATEST DATA PLOTTED ARE AVERAGES OF RATES AVAILABLE FOR THE WEEK ENDING: 1985 MAY 3 10 17 24 31 JUNE 7 14 21 28 X JULY 5 12 19 26 3 17 31 14 28 12 26 MAY JUN JUL 1985 JUNE 28, 1985. FEDERAL FUNDS X* 3-MONTH TREASURY BILL 6-MONTH TREASURY BILL iau 1-YEAR TREASURY BILL 5-YEAR TREASURY SECURITIES LONG-TERM TREASURY SECURITIES 8.35 8. 19 8. 14 7.91 7.60 7.75 7.62 7.13 7.46 7.78 7.76 7.50 7.25 7.19 7.01 7.03 6.81 7.05 8. 1 1 7.93 7.90 7.43 7.39 7.16 7.35 6.90 7.24 8.25 8.09 7.90 7.63 7.53 7.25 7.31 7.14 7.44 10.85 10.68 10.39 10.06 9.84 9.45 9.60 9.50 9.89 11.49 11.36 11.13 10.89 10.70 10.38 10.45 10.41 10.75 NOTEi CURRENT DATA APPEAR IN THE BOARD OF GOVERNORS' H.15 RELEASE EXCLUDING LONG-TERM TREASURY «AVERAGESUOFT|lAfESHAVAIL?lLE0MPUTED BY ™'S “**■ ™MSURY BILL YIELDSARE ONA OISCOUNTBASIS. **#BEuct7onYaverag£EPSCOUNT* http://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis e,®ing ™° D*YS EARLIER THA* D*TE PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS 7 8 COMMERCIAL BANK SMALL TIME DEPOSITS^ LARGE TIME DEPOSITS v AVERAGES OF DAILY FIGURES SEASONALLY ADJUSTED _ isas. MAY BILLIONS 13 20 27 389.3 390.0 390.7 10 17 390. 390.4 in i _ BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 410 i- i- i, l BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 410 ■ SMALL TIME 5EP0SIT S - — - i i i i i i i i 370 !lll _LLL 1111 111 JXL iUJj -LJ..L, 1 1 1 1 ii i 1 1 1 1 ill j-i i 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 J LATEST DATA PLOTTED WEEK ENDINGt JUNE 17, BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 285 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS. MAY 13 280 273.4 270.8 269.4 275 LARGE TIME DEPOSITS 268.8 270 265 260 255 250 245 240 4 18 MAY JUN 2 16 SO 19 27 10 24 AUG 8 22 5 10 3 LATEST DATA PLOTTED WEEK ENDINGt JUNE 17. 17 31 14 28 II JAN SEP 25 11 FEB MAR 25 8 22 MAY JUN 1985 1/ TIME DEPOSITS ISSUED IN DENOMINATIONS OF LESS THAN 8100,000 2/ TIME DEPOSITS ISSUED IN DENOMINATIONS OF 8100,000 OR MORE http://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS COMMERCIAL BANK TOTAL TIME DEPOSITS AVERAGES OF DAILY FIGURES SEASONALLY ADJUSTED BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 1S&5 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 800 BILLIONS 783.0 782.3 782.0 780.8 779.6 781 . I 4 18 2 16 50 IS 27 10 24 AUG 8 22 5 10 5 17 31 SEP 1984 14 28 11 JAN 25 11 FEB 25 8 22 6 20 3 17 MAR LATEST DATA PLOTTED WEEK ENDINGt JUNE 17, 1985 TOTAL TIME IS THE SUM OF SAVINGS DEPOSITS, SMALL TIME DEPOSITS AND LARGE TIME DEPOSITS. TOTAL TIME DEPOSITS COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE , AVERAGE OF FOUR WEEKS ENDING: 6/18/84 9/17/84 11/19/84 12/17/84 1/14/85 2/18/85 3/18/85 4/15/85 8.7 8.7 5.8 9.9 5.7 3.2 TO THE AVERAGE OF FOUR WEEKS ENDING*. 11/19/84 12/17/84 1/14/85 2/18/85 3/18/85 4/15/85 5/20/85 8/17/85 8.3 7. 1 6. 1 4.0 4.2 4.9 5.3 4.6 http://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 5.1 3.8 1.1 1.8 3.1 3.8 3.1 0.3 -2.9 -0.9 1.4 2.7 1 .9 -4.4 -1.3 1.6 3. 1 2.1 -1.9 2.1 3.9 2.6 PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS 9 10 BORROWINGS FROM FEDERAL RESERVE BANKS AVERAGES OF DAILY FIGURES BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 10.0 ------------- -----------r— ILL IONS OF DOLLARS T--------- I-----------1985 10.0 MILLIONS 22 29 1474 1174 19 1427 TOTAL BORROWINGS LATEST DATA PLOTTED WEEK ENDING: JUNE 26, 1985 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 1SS5. ADJUSTMENT + SEASONAL BORROWINGS 2 18 90 19 27 11 JUN 29 8 22 9 10 JUL 9 17 91 14 28 12 26 NOV DEC 0 29 6 20 6 20 9 17 FEB MAR APR MILLIONS 22 1291 5 721 I 19 20 12 26 10 24 LATEST DATA PLOTTED WEEK ENDING: JUNE 26, 1985 1/ 04.562 FOR 5/16/84, 03.790 FOR 5/23/84, 02.989 FOR 5/30/84t 03.120 FOR 6/6/84 http://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS r* MMDAS, MMMFS AND SUPER NOWS (BILLIONS OF DOLLARS, NOT SEASONALLY ADJUSTED) April May $56.1 53.9 54.7 54.6 54.6 54.3 55.7 57.2 56.9 $235.7 236.4 232.8 234.8 234.8 238.2 238.3 239.3 242.2 $295.2 293.9 294.6 296.7 298.6 300.3 303.0 306.0 307.7 22 29 6 13 20 27 3 10 17 Super NOWs 3/ MMMFs 2/ MMDAs 1/ 1/ Money market deposit accounts at commercial banks, effective 12/14/82 narket mutual fund balances 3/ NOW accounts at all depository institutions, requiring a $1,000 minimum balance ~ and eligible to earn more than 5.25 percent, effective 1/5/85 BUSINESS LOANS v (COMMERCIAL AND INDUSTRIAL ) WEEKLY REPORT ING LARGE COMMERCIAL BANKS 2/ SEASONALLY ADJUSTED BY THIS BANK BILLIONS OF DOLLARS COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RATES - ur OF CHANGE, AVERAGE ur OF - THE onANuc, FOUR ilEEKS ENDING — ourac i c. i sou rnum - THE FOUrt WEEKS ENDING' -1.9 APR. 10, MAR. 13, DEC. 12, - SEP. 12, __ JUN. 13, MILLIONS 256,003 256,129 JUN. 5 1 1 1 1 I I I 2 16 30 13 27 11 JUN 25 8 22 JUL 5 10 3 17 31 14 28 12 26 NOV 0 23 DEC 6 20 6 20 FEB MAR 255,043 1 I I I I 1 1 1.1J-LL 3 17 I IS 20 12 23 10 24 LATEST DATA PLOTTED WEEK ENDING. JUNE 12. 1985 1/ BUSINESS LOANS INCLUDE BANKERS' ACCEPTANCES AND COMMERCIAL PAPER. 2/ BANKS WITH DOMESTIC ASSETS GREATER THAN 81.4 BILLION http://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS 11 Ml Growth and Basis Point Changes in Selected Short-Term Interest Rates Period 12/19/83 3/19/84 6/18/84 9/17/84 12/17/84 3/18/85 - 3/19/84 6/18/84 9/17/84 12/17/84 3/18/85 6/17/85 Mil/ 6.8% 7.1 3.7 3.2 12.4 11.7 3 0-day 3-month Federal commercial Treasury funds 2/ 1/ bill paper 42 145 -3 -347 76 -162 28 92 9 -295 60 -159 76 15 38 -248 70 -170 1/ Compounded annual rates, seasonally adjusted, from four-week averages of Ml ending dates shown 2/ Weekly averages ending two days later than dates shown 3/ Weekly averages ending four days later than dates shown http://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis