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Reassessing the Relationship Between Consumer Sentiment and Spending with a New Composite Index : C-CSI Data, No. 521

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Reassessing the Relationship Between Consumer Sentiment and Spending with a New Composite Index : C-CSI Data, No. 521

DATE: June 4, 2026

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Surveys summarizing consumer sentiment (or confidence) have a long tradition in economics. In the U.S., the University of Michigan’s Surveys of Consumers and the Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Survey represent two prominent surveys of this nature, with histories that extend back more than 40 years. In this Chicago Fed Letter, we take a closer look at the link between these traditional measures of consumer sentiment and consumer spending. In doing so, we show how related daily measures of consumer sentiment can be used to correct for potential biases in the University of Michigan’s Index of Consumer Sentiment and construct a composite index—called the Composite Consumer Sentiment Index, or C-CSI—that correlates more closely with consumer spending.

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Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago. Research Department and Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago. "Reassessing the Relationship Between Consumer Sentiment and Spending with a New Composite Index : C-CSI Data, No. 521," Chicago Fed Letter (June 4, 2026). https://fraser.stlouisfed.org/title/5287/item/730210/content/xlsx/frbchi_fedletter_2026_521_data, accessed on July 12, 2026.

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  • doi: https://doi.org/10.21033/cfl-2026-521
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