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SURVEY OF CURRENT BUSINESS

10

in several years, foreign buyers—influenced by many of the
same anticipatory considerations that have motivated domestic consumers and businessmen—were able to continue
the step-up in procurement from this country which they
began last fall. Domestic supply shortages do not appear
to have seriously impeded the rise so far, but may cut into
the volume of goods available for export as the mobilization
program proceeds.
As noted above, United States imports also rose in the first
quarter, continuing a trend which began with the upturn in
domestic economic activity in the second half-of 1949, and
which has been reinforced since the middle of last year by
expanded demand for such strategic materials as rubber,
copper, and tin. Following the pattern of other recent
quarters, the dollar import totals reflected a considerably
larger element of price increase than did exports.

The Flow of Income
Personal income in the opening quarter of 1951 reached an
annual rate of $242 billion—up $7 billion from the fourth
quarter of last year. All major components shared in the
advance, with the exception of dividends, which dropped
sharply, not because of a change in corporate earnings, but
by reason of the special circumstances noted below. Total
income exclusive of dividends rose by $9 billion, an amount
approximately equivalent to the increases in each of the two
preceding quarters.

Large gain in wages and salaries
Of this $9 billion increment, $7 billion was in the form of
wages and salaries. At an annual rate of $162 billion, these
were 20 percent higher than a year ago and 4% percent above
the fourth quarter figure.
Government wages and salaries, which began to expand
rapidly in the second half of 1950 after a long period of
virtual constancy, again accounted for a more-than-proportionate share of the increase. The growth of military payrolls
with enlargement of our Armed Forces, of course, was primarily responsible for this movement. However, civilian
government wages and salaries—chiefly because of the increased activities of Federal facilities engaged in producing
goods or servicing the military, and of the defense and stabilization agencies—also contributed.
Payrolls in private industries rose from $130% billion (at
annual rates) in the fourth quarter to $135^ billion hi the
first. The further growth of employment was a factor in
this change, but about three-fourths of it appears to have
been attributable to higher hourly earnings. The relative
importance of these two factors thus shifted appreciably as
compared with the early phases of the recent industrial
expansion, when rising employment was the dominant
influence upon the course of total private payrolls. The
average workweek in the initial months of this year differed
little, with due allowance for seasonal variations, from that
of the December quarter.

Payroll advance widespread
The latest quarterly payroll increase was much more
evenly distributed industrially than those which occurred
in 1950. In general, this reflected the tapering-off of employment gains—which were concentrated in manufacturing, especially in durable-goods plants—and the growing
relative contribution of wage rate increases, which were
gradually spreading throughout the economy.
The manufacturing industries accounted for only about
40 percent of the first-quarter private payroll gain, as compared with 60 percent of the change from the third to the
fourth quarter and a still higher proportion earlier last year.
Within manufacturing, the bias in favor of durable-goods




May 1951

Table 3.—National Income and Product, Last Two Quarters 1950
and First Quarter 1951 l
[Billions of dollars]
Seasonally adjusted at
annual rates

Unadjusted

Item

1950

III

1950

1951

1951

IV 2

I

III

. 61.1

64.6

(3)

244.0

256.2

39.0
37.1
31.9
(3)
(3)
1.8

41.2
39.5
33. 2

8

1.8

41.9
39.8
33. 1
(3)
(3)
2.1

155.3
147.8
125. 3
(3)
(3)
7.4

162.7
155. 1
130.3
(3)
(3)
7.6

170.2
162. 1
135.5
(3)
(3)
8.1

11.4
6.2
_ 3.4
1.8

11.6
6.1
3.6
1.9

12.0
6.4
3.7
1.9

45.5
24.6
13.5
7.4

46.3
24.3
14.4
7.6

48.0
25.8
14.8
7.4

Corporate profits and inventory valuation
9.5 10.5
adjustment
..
(3)
11.4 12.6
Corporate profits before tax
(3)
5. 1
5.6
Corporate profits tax liability
(3)
6.4
7.0
Corporate profits after tax
(3)
-2.1 -2.1 -2.3
Inventory valuation adjustment

38.1
46.4
20.6
25.8
-8.3

42.2
50.8
22.3
28.5
-8.5

IV 2

I

NATIONAL INCOME BY DISTRIBUTIVE SHARES
National income

Compensation of employees.
Wages and salaries
Private
_
._
._ _
Military
Government civilian
Supplements to wages and salaries
Proprietors' and rental income 4 __ ..
Business and professional
Farm. .
.
. ._
Rental income of persons

_

(3)

(3)

(3)
(3)
(3)
-9.3

1.3

1.3

1.3

5.0

5.1

5.2

5.0

5.9

6.4

21.2

23.4

25.3

71.6

78.7

76.1

283.9

300.3

313.9

Personal consumption expenditures
Durable goods
Nondurable goods
Services

49.1
8.6
25.5
15.0

52.5
8.3
28.9
15.3

48.5
7.0
25.8
15.7

198.9
34.0
104.5
60.4

195.8
30.0
104.3
61.5

204.8
31.6
110.7
62.6

Gross private domestic investiment
New construction
Residential nonfarm
Other
Producers' durable equipment
Change in business inventories, total
Nonfarm only

13.3
6.5
3.9
2.6
6.4
.5
.4

15.0
5.9
3.3
2.5
6.6
2.6
2.5

15.4
4.9
2.6
2.4
6.8
3.6
3.6

47.8
23.0
13.6
9.4
26.3
-1.5
—1.7

60.2
22.9
12.9
10.0
26.1
11.2
11.0

59.0
23.5
12.9
10.7
27.6
7.9
7.6

Net foreign investment

-.9

-.7

-.6

-3.3

-3.4

-2.6

Government purchases of goods and services. 10.2
5.3
Federal
_ ._
.1
Less: Government sales
4.9
State and local
_.

11.9
6.8
.1
5.2

12.8
8.0
.1
4.8

40.4
21.1
.2
19.5

47.6
27.1
.2
20.8

52.6
32.2
.2
20.7

56.1

60.0

59.3

224.9

234.9

241.6

Less: Personal tax and nontax payments
4.8
Federal
- _ _ 4.2
.7
State and local
-- .Equals' Disposable personal income
51.3
49.1
Less: Personal consumption expenditures
Equals: Personal saving _
2.2

4.8
4.2
.6
55.2
52.5
2.7

10.4
9.5
.9
48.9
48.5
.4

20.3
17.5
2.8
204.6
198.9
5.7

23.3
20.4
2.8
211.6
195.8
15.8

26. 7
23.8
2.9
214.9
204.8
10.1

Net interest
__.
Addendum: Compensation of general government employees
GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT OR
EXPENDITURE
Gross national product

DISPOSITION OF PERSONAL INCOME
Personal income

-

RELATION OF GROSS NATIONAL
PRODUCT, NATIONAL INCOME, AND
PERSONAL INCOME

71.6

78.7

76.1

283.9

300.3

313.9

5.3
Less: Capital consumption allowances-.
Indirect business tax and nontax liability- _ _ 6.4
.2
Business transfer payments
Statistical discrepancy
. -1.4
Plus: Subsidies less current surplus of govern-.1
ment enterprises -

5.4
6.2
.2
2.3

5.5
6.3
.2
(3)

21.3
25.3
.7
-7.6

21.7
24.3
.7
-2.7

22.2
26.1
.7
(3)

-.3

—.1

61.1

64.6

(3)

244.0

256.2

9.5
1.7
.0
2.7
1.1
2.2
.2

10.5
1.6
.0
2.8
1.2
3.4
.2

(3)
2.2
.0
2.8
1.1
2.1
.2

38.1
6.9
.0
11.2
4.8
9.3
.7

42.2
7.2
.0
11.2
4.8
11.5
.7

(3)
8.1
.0
11.5
4.8
9.3
.7

56.1

60.0

59.3

224.9

234.9

241.6

Gross national product

Equals: National income.Less: Corporate profits and inventory valuation adjustment
Contributions for social insurance
._
Excess of wage accruals over disbursements
Plus: Government transfer payments
Net interest paid by government _
Dividends
B usiness transfer payments
Equals: Personal income

.0

.0

—.1
(3)

1
Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding.
2 Data for the fourth quarter of 1950 are the same as those in the February issue of the
SURVEY except that an actual estimate of fourth-quarter corporate profits not previously
available has been introduced.
3
Not available.
4
Includes noncorporate inventory adjustment.

Source: U. S. Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics.

BUSINESS STATISTICS
i HE DATA here are a continuation of the statistics published in the 1949 Statistical Supplement to the SURVEY OF CURRENT BUSINESS.
That volume (price $1.25) contains monthly data for the years 1945 to 1948, and monthly averages for earlier years back to 1935 insofar as available; it also provides a description of each series and references to sources of monthly figures prior to 1945. Series added or revised since publication of the 1949 Supplement are indicated by an asterisk (*) and a dagger (t), respectively, the accompanying footnote indicating where historical
data and a descriptive note may be found. The terms "unadjusted" and "adjusted" used to designate index numbers and dollar values refer to
adjustment of monthly figures for seasonal variation.
Data subsequent to March 1951 for selected series will be found in the Weekly Supplement to the SURVEY.
Unless otherwise stated, statistics through
1948 and descriptive notes are shown in the
1949 Statistical Supplement to the Survey

1951

1950

March

April

May

June

July

August

September

October

November

December

January

February

March

GENERAL BUSINESS INDICATORS
NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCTf
Seasonally adjusted quarterly totals at annual rates:
National income total
bil of dol
Compensation of employees, total
do
\Vases and salaries total
do
Private
do
Military
do
Government civilian
do
Supplements to wages and salaries
do
Proprietors' and rental income total cf
do
Business and professionalcf
do
Farm
do
Rental income of persons
do
Corporate profits and inventory valuation adjustment, total
bil. of dol
Corporate profits before tax total
do
CorDorate profits tax liability
do
Corporate profits after tax
do
Inventory valuation adjustment
do
Net interest
do

216.9
142.3
135.2
114.3
4.5
16.4
7.1
41.5
21.4
12.8
7.3

229 1
147.9
140 6
119. 5
4.5
16.6
7.3
41.2
22.3
11.7
7.1

244 0
155.3
147 8
125.3

256.2
162. 7
155 1
130.3

170.2
162.1
135.5

7.4
45 5
24.6
13.5
7.4

7.6
46.3
24.3
14.4
7.6

8.1
48.0
25.8
14.8
7.4

28.1
29.2
13.2
16.0
-1.0
5.0

35.0
37.4
16.5
20 9
-2.4
5.0

38.1
46.4
20.6
25.8
-8.3
5.0

42.2
50 8
22.3
28 5
-8.5
5.1

-9.3
5.2

Gross national product total
do
Personal consumption expenditures, total do
Durable goods
do
Nondurable goods
do
Services
do
Gross private domestic investment
do
New construction
do
Producers' durable equipment
do
Change in business inventories
do
Net foreign investment
do
Government purchases of goods and services,
total
bil. of dol
Federal (less Government sales)
do
State and local
do

263.3
182.6
26.4
97.9
58.3
41.8
20 0
19.5
2.3
— 1.7

271 6
185. 8
26 5
99 9
59 5
47.7
21.5
21.8
4 4
— 1.7

283.9
198.9
34.0
104.5
60.4
47.8
23.0
26.3
—1.5
-3.3

300.3
195.8
30 0
104.3
61 5
60.2
22 9
26.1
11.2
-3.4

313.9
204.8
31.6
110.7
62.6
59.0
23.5
27.6
7.9
-2.6

40.5
21 8
18.7

39.9
21 1
18.8

40.4
20 9
19.5

47.6
26.9
20.8

52.6
32.0
20.7

Personal income total
Less' Personal tax and nontax payments
Equals' Disposable personal income
Personal savings

216.4
19.0
197.4
14 8

215.1
19 5
195.6
98

224 9
20 3
204. 6
5.7

234.9
23 3
211.6
15.8

241.6
26.7
214.9
10.1

do
do
do
do

j

PERSONAL INCOME, BY SOURCEf
Seasonally adjusted, at annual rates:
Total personal income
bil. of dol .
Wage and salary receipts, total
do
Employer disbursements, total
do
Commodity-producing industries . do_
Distributive industries
do
Service industries. - ...
. . _ _ _do ~ _
Government
. do . .
Less employee contributions for social insurance _
-_ . _ _
_ . . . - . bil. of doL _
Other labor income
do
Proprietors' and rental income
do
Personal interest income and dividends. _. do
Total transfer payments.
. ___do _
Total nonafri^nltnral income

do

219.3
133. 6
136. 4
57.7
39.6
18.1
21.0

213.8
135.3
138.1
59.1
39.7
18.2
21.1

214.5
137.7
140,5
60.9
40.1
18.5
21.0

217.1
140.2
143.2
62.7
40.7
18.6
21.2

220.7
141.7
144.5
63. 3
40.9
18.7
21.6

225. 4
145.5
148. 5
65.6
41.7
18.8
22.4

228.7
147.8
150.6
66. 5
41.6
18.8
23.7

231.1
150. 7
153. 8
68.6
41.9
19.2
24.1

232.9
152.1
155.1
69.1
41.9
19.3
24.8

241.0
154.3
157.2
70.0
42.4
19.4
25.4

240.9
156. 7
160. 2
71.1
43.2
19.9
26.0

2.8
3.3
40.2
18.0
24. 2

2.8
3.3
39.8
18.2
17.2

2.8
3.4
41.5
17.8
14.1

3.0
3.4
42.3
17.8
13.4

2.8
3.4
45.5
17.8
12.3

3.0
3.4
46.1
18.4
12.0

2.8
3.4
45.0
21.1
11.4

3.1
3.4
45.7
19.2
12.1

3.0
3.4
46.2
19.4
11.8

2.9
3.4
47.0
24.7
11.6

198.7

198.4

200.7

202.7

207.3

211.2

212.7

213.9

221.9

220.9

T

r

241. 3
158.7
162. 1
72.0
M3.7
r
19.8
r
26.6

242.5
160.4
164.0
72.6
44.1
20.0
27.3

'3.4
3.5
47.7
r
19.3
r
!2. 1

3.5
3.5
49.3
19.0
12.4

203.7

r

3.6
3.5
47.1
19.5
12.0

222. 4

223.8

NEW PLANT AND EQUIPMENT
EXPENDITURES
3,700
4,700
4,330
All industries, quarterly total
mil. of dol._
1,520
Manufacturing
do
2 050
1 860
150
160
Mining
- do
180
230
300
290
Railroad
_ _ _ _ do _
80
Other transportation
do
90
120
650
Electric and gas utilities
do
760
820
1,060
Commercial and miscellaneous
do
1,240
1,160
r
l
Revised.
Estimates for January-March, based on anticipated, capital expenditures of business.
t Revised series. Quarterly estimates of national income, gross national product, and personal income and monthly estimates of personal income
pp. 28-35 of the July 1950 SURVEY for the revised figures,
cf Includes inventory valuation adjustment.
§Persoiial saving is excess of disposable income over personal consumption expenditures shown as a component of gross national product above.
944109°—51-




1

5, 830
2,790
200
320
140
940
1,440

5, 500
* 2, 670
* 190
1360
1
150
!830
1
1,300

have been revised beginning 1946: see

S-l


Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, One Federal Reserve Bank Plaza, St. Louis, MO 63102