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November 1949 SUEVEY OF CURRENT BUSINESS Sustained Flow of Incomes In the absence of national income figures for the third quarter, trends in distributive shares can best be discussed in the framework of the personal income concept. Personal income, as already noted, declined from $212% billion in the second quarter, at annual rates, to $210% billion in the third. Nonagricultural components of the aggregate, however, registered very little change, and were advancing slightly in August and September, as a result of the pick-up in manufacturing activity. Dividend income was unchanged from the second to the third quarter, and remained at a seasonally adjusted annual rate in excess of last year's total. The fact that earnings Table 2.—National Income and Product, First Three Quarters 19491 [Billions of dollars] Seasonally adjusted at annual rates Unadjusted Item I II III I II III NATIONAL INCOME BY DISTRIBUTIVE SHARES Pay rolls steady Total wages and salaries were stable at approximately the second quarter rate—some 2 percent below the high fourth quarter of 1948. The salient feature of this leveling-out— after declines earlier in the year—was a stabilization in manufacturing pay rolls. The drop in wages and salaries in the first quarter had been largely confined to factory pay rolls, reflecting, according to the analysis given above, the concentration of the impact of reduced inventory demand upon manufacturing production. Labor earnings in the distributive industries were also affected in the first quarter, but only to a minor extent, while pay rolls of service establishments and of governmental units did not suffer at all. Although the major downward impetus in factory wages had been dissipated by early Spring, the falling trend for manufacturing as a whole continued at a reduced rate through midsummer. In the distributive industries, however, what little decline had been discernible in the first quarter was eliminated by the second, and both service-industry and government pay rolls continued to expand moderately through the third quarter. Within manufacturing, there appeared after April a distinction between durable- and nondurable-goods industries. The persisting declines were concentrated in the former group, while slight monthly advances began to show up in the latter, where average hours worked per week have increased each month since April. By August, the decrease of durable-goods factory pay rolls was finally halted, and the third quarter ended with no major category of wages and salaries on the downgrade except for mining, where the coal strike cut into September earnings. For the quarter as a whole, continuing increments in nonmanufacturing wages sufficed to offset the small additional drop of factory pay rolls from the second quarter, so that aggregate labor earnings were virtually unchanged. Income decline centered in agriculture Proprietors' and rental income fell from $46% billion, at an annual rate, in the second quarter to $44 % billion in the third, thus accounting for most of the decline in personal income. Only farm proprietors were involved in the decrease, as business and professional earnings held firm. A reduction in the seasonally adjusted volume of crops marketed or placed under government loan was mainly responsible for the adverse movement of farm income. Livestock sales were little changed. Cash receipts from farming also suffered from a further decline in agricultural prices, which averaged appreciably less than in the second quarter. 56.1 55.8 (2) 226.3 223.4 (2) Compensation of employees Wages and salaries. Private Military Government civilian . Supplements to wages and salaries 35.0 33.7 28.5 1.0 4.2 1.3 35.4 34.0 28.7 1.0 4.3 1.4 35.6 34.1 29.3 1.0 39 L4 142.5 137. 5 117.2 4.1 16.2 5.0 141.8 136.5 115.9 4.0 16.6 5.3 142.2 136.6 115.7 4.0 16.8 5.6 Proprietors' and rental income 3 _ _ _ _ Business and professional Farm Rental income of persons __ 12.0 6.0 4.3 1.7 11.6 6.0 3.9 1.7 11.1 6.0 3.5 1.6 47.8 24.0 17.1 6.7 46.5 24.1 15.7 6.7 44.5 24.2 13.8 6.5 Corporate profits and inventory valuation adjustment Corporate profits before tax Corporate profits tax liability Corporate profits after tax Inventory valuation adjustment 8.1 7.5 2.9 4.6 .6 7.7 6.6 2.6 3.9 1.1 (2) 9 31.8 29.4 11.5 17.9 2.3 30.9 26.4 10.6 15.8 4.5 (22) ( 2) ( 2) () 3.5 Net interest 1.0 1.1 1.1 4.2 4.3 4.3 4.9 5.0 4.6 18.9 19.4 19.9 National income Addendum: Compensation of general Government employees 0) 2 () W GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT OR EXPENDITURE 63.7 63.1 64.9 263.5 259.6 256.3 42.1 5.1 23.1 13.9 44.6 6.0 24.5 14.0 44.0 6.5 23.6 13.9 178.6 23.1 100.1 55.4 178.9 23.8 99.3 55.9 178.5 25.8 96.5 56.2 Gross private domestic investment 10.8 New construction __ 3.5 5.2 Producers' durable equipment Change in business inventories, total _ 2.1 Nonfarm only _ _ _ .. 1.8 .2 Net foreign investment 7.0 4.1 5.2 -2.3 -2.5 .3 10.4 4.9 5.0 .4 .4 -.3 41.6 16.8 21.2 3.6 2.3 1.0 35.4 16.4 20.4 -1.4 -2.1 1.2 35.0 17.3 20.1 -2.4 -2.6 -.8 Gross national product Personal consumption expenditures .. Durable goods Nondurable goods Services __ Government purchases of goods and services Federal Less* Government sales State and local __ _ 10.4 6.4 .1 4.1 11.2 6.6 .1 4.6 10.8 6.4 .1 4.4 42.3 25.5 .3 17.0 44.0 26.5 .3 17.8 43.6 25.8 .3 18.1 52.5 53.2 52.2 213.7 212.5 210.6 7.3 6.6 .7 3.4 2.7 .6 4.4 3.8 .5 18.8 16.4 2.3 18.7 16.4 2.4 18.8 16.4 2.4 45.2 49.8 47.8 194.9 193.8 191.9 42.1 44.6 44.0 178.6 178.9 178.5 3.1 5.2 3.8 16.3 14.8 13.3 63.7 63.1 64.9 263. 5 259. 6 256. 3 4.1 Less: Capital consumption allowances Indirect business tax and nontax liability 5.0 .2 Business transfer payments -1.6 Statistical discrepancy 4.1 5.2 .2 -2.2 4.2 5.4 .2 16.2 20.6 .6 .1 16.6 21.2 .6 -1.9 16.7 21.5 .6 (2) DISPOSITION OF PERSONAL INCOME Personal income Less: Personal tax and nontax payments Federal State and local Equals: Disposable personal income . Less: Personal consumption expenditures E quals : Personal saving _ RELATION OF GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT, NATIONAL INCOME, AND PERSONAL INCOME Gross national product Plus: Subsidies less current surplus of Government enterprises - _ .1 .1 56.1 55.8 Less: Corporate profits and inventory valuation adjustment Contributions for social insurance- _ Excess of wage accruals over disbursements -_ 8.1 1.4 Plus: Government transfer payments Net interest paid by Government Dividends Business transfer payments _ 2.8 1.0 1.9 .2 2.9 1.4 2.0 .2 52.5 53.2 Equals: National income Equals: Personal income 0 (2) .3 .3 ( ) 226.3 223.4 (2) 7.7 1.4 (2) 31.8 5.2 30.9 5.4 (2) -.1 0 .1 -.3 0 2.8 1.0 1.8 .2 11.1 4.5 8.4 .6 11.5 4.6 8.4 .6 11.6 4.6 8.4 .6 52.2 213. 7 212. 5 210.6 .1 2 1.4 1 Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding. Not available. 3 Includes noncorporate inventory valuation adjustment. Source: U. S. Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics. 2 .3 5.6 BUSINESS STATISTICS JL HE DATA here are a continuation of the statistics published in the 1949 Statistical Supplement to the SURVEY OF CURRENT BUSINESS. That volume contains monthly data for the years 1945 to 1948, and monthly averages for earlier years back to 1935 insofar as available; it also provides a description of each series and references to sources of monthly figures prior to 1945. Series added or revised since publication of the 1949 Supplement are indicated by an asterisk (*) and a dagger (f), respectively, the accompanying footnote indicating where historical data and a descriptive note may be found. The terms "unadjusted" and "adjusted" used to designate index numbers and dollar values refer to adjustment of monthly figures for seasonal variation. Data subsequent to September for selected series will be found in the Weekly Supplement to the SURVEY. Unless otherwise stated, statistics through 1948 and descriptive notes are shown in the 1949 Statistical Supplement to the Survey 1948 September October 1949 November December January February March April May June July August September GENERAL BUSINESS INDICATORS NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT Seasonally adjusted quarterly totals at annual rates: National income, total bil. of dol Compensation of employees, total _ _ do _ Wages and salaries, total do Private do Military do Government civilian do Supplements to wages and salaries do Proprietors' and rental income, total cf __ d o _ _ _ Business and professional cf do Farm do Rental income of persons do Corporate profits and inventory valuation adjustment total bil. of dol Corporate profits before tax, total _ . do Corporate profits tax liability do Corporate profits after tax _ do Tnventorv valuation adjustment do Net interest do 230.4 143.3 138.3 118.6 234. 3 144.9 139.8 119.6 226.3 142.5 137.5 117.2 15 7 16 1 16 2 49.9 24.5 18.8 66 49.7 24 5 18.5 6 7 47.8 24 0 17.1 6 7 3.9 4.1 5.0 266.5 180 3 24.8 101.8 53.7 47.1 18 7 21.0 7 4 — .1 270.3 180 9 22.9 103.3 54.8 48.0 17 9 21.2 9 0 39.2 22.8 16.4 40.3 23.4 16 9 Personal income total Less* Personal tax and nontax payments Equals: Disposable personal income __ Personal saving § 215.4 20.2 195.2 15.0 216 6 20.4 196.2 15.3 55.4 r 41.6 16 8 21.2 r 36 T 1.0 256 178 25 96 56 35 17 20 2 r 1 2 42 3 25. 2 17 0 r 213 7 18.8 194.9 r 16 3 r r 3 5 4 3 259 6 r 178 9 T 23 8 r 99.3 55.9 r 35 4 r 16 4 r 20 4 T _] 4 r r 30 9 26.4 10 6 15.8 4.3 r 100. 1 r C 13 8 & r r 263. 5 178 6 23. 1 r K 94 9 r 4 5 T 1.0 IRS 44 5 6 7 r 2.3 4.2 r r 142 2 136 6 115 7 4 A ' 15 7 31.8 29.4 11.5 17.9 1.2 4.1 Gross national product, total do Personal consumption expenditures total do Durable goods do Nondurable goods do Services __do _ _ _ Gross private domestic investment do New construction do Producers' durable equipment do Change in business inventories do Net foreign investment do Government purchases of goods and services, total bil of dol Federal (less Government sales) do State and local do do do do do 5.0 35.7 34. 5 13.6 20.9 3.9 223. 4 ' 141.8 136. 5 115.9 4 0 r 16 6 '5 3 ' 46.5 24 1 r r 4.1 5.0 33.3 36.6 14.4 22.2 -3.3 r 3 5 8 5 2 0 3 1 4 g r 44 o r 26 2 r 17 8 43 6 25 5 18 1 212 5 18 7 193. 8 r 14 8 210 6 18 8 191 9 13 3 PERSONAL INCOME, BY SOURCE Seasonally adjusted, at annual rates: Total personal income bil. of dol Wage and salary receipts, total do Employer disbursements, total do _ Commodity-producing industries do Distributive industries do Service industries do Government _ do Less employee contributions for social insurance _ .__ bil. of dol Other labor income do Proprietors' and rental income _ do _ Personal interest income and dividends. _do Total transfer payments do Total nonagricultural income do 216. 3 137.7 139.9 62.8 40.4 16.7 20.0 216.3 138.1 140.3 62.7 40.4 16.9 20.3 216.6 137.5 139.7 62.7 39.8 16.9 20.3 217.0 137.1 139.4 62.3 40.0 16.9 20.2 215.7 136.6 138.9 61.4 40.2 17.0 20.3 212.9 135. 0 137. 3 60.6 39.5 16.9 20.3 212.4 133.5 135.8 58.9 39.4 17.1 20.4 212.5 134.7 136.8 58.6 40.5 17.1 20.6 213.1 135.0 137.2 58.3 41.1 17.3 20.5 211.9 133.9 136.2 58.1 40 3 17.1 20.7 209.7 134.2 136.4 57.8 40.5 17.2 20.9 2.2 2.0 2.2 2.0 2.3 2.0 2.3 2.1 2.3 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.2 2.1 49.4 16.5 10.7 49.0 16.8 10.4 49.8 16.9 10.4 50.3 16.9 10.7 49.0 17.0 11.1 47.2 17.1 11.5 47.3 17.1 12.4 46.3 17.2 12.2 46.7 17.3 12.0 2 2 46.5 17.2 12 1 2 1 44.2 17.1 12 1 193.3 192.9 192.8 193.6 192.6 191.7 191.4 192.3 192.6 191.5 191.2 2.2 2.0 2.3 2.0 2.3 r 211 4 'r 134. 4 136. 6 r 58.2 r 40 5 r 17.1 r 20 8 2.2 2 2 2 2 45 2 "17.3 12 3 2 2 2 2 44 1 17.' 5 12 3 192 2 193 2 r r 210 8 134.7 136 9 58.5 40 6 17 0 20 8 NEW PLANT AND EQUIPMENT EXPENDITURES All industries quarterly total Manufacturing Mining _ _. Railroad Other transportation Electric and gas utilities Commercial and miscellaneous r mil. of dol do do do do do do 4,830 2,090 5 410 2,320 4 460 1, 850 4 660 1,880 1,360 1,440 1,260 1,290 200 320 170 690 220 410 170 850 190 360 130 680 1 Revised. Estimates based on anticipated capital expenditures of business. cf Includes inventory valuation adjustment. § Personal saving is excess of disposable income over personal consumption expenditures shown as a component of gross national product above. 861354°-—49 4 190 380 140 780 i 4 550 i 1, 770 i 180 i 340 i 140 i 810 1 1, 300