View PDF

The full text on this page is automatically extracted from the file linked above and may contain errors and inconsistencies.

November 1949

SUEVEY OF CURRENT BUSINESS

Sustained Flow of Incomes
In the absence of national income figures for the third
quarter, trends in distributive shares can best be discussed
in the framework of the personal income concept. Personal
income, as already noted, declined from $212% billion in the
second quarter, at annual rates, to $210% billion in the third.
Nonagricultural components of the aggregate, however, registered very little change, and were advancing slightly in
August and September, as a result of the pick-up in manufacturing activity.

Dividend income was unchanged from the second to the
third quarter, and remained at a seasonally adjusted annual
rate in excess of last year's total. The fact that earnings
Table 2.—National Income and Product, First Three Quarters 19491
[Billions of dollars]
Seasonally adjusted at
annual rates

Unadjusted

Item
I

II

III

I

II

III

NATIONAL INCOME BY DISTRIBUTIVE SHARES

Pay rolls steady
Total wages and salaries were stable at approximately the
second quarter rate—some 2 percent below the high fourth
quarter of 1948. The salient feature of this leveling-out—
after declines earlier in the year—was a stabilization in
manufacturing pay rolls.
The drop in wages and salaries in the first quarter had been
largely confined to factory pay rolls, reflecting, according to
the analysis given above, the concentration of the impact of
reduced inventory demand upon manufacturing production.
Labor earnings in the distributive industries were also affected in the first quarter, but only to a minor extent, while
pay rolls of service establishments and of governmental units
did not suffer at all.
Although the major downward impetus in factory wages
had been dissipated by early Spring, the falling trend for
manufacturing as a whole continued at a reduced rate through
midsummer. In the distributive industries, however, what
little decline had been discernible in the first quarter was
eliminated by the second, and both service-industry and
government pay rolls continued to expand moderately
through the third quarter.
Within manufacturing, there appeared after April a distinction between durable- and nondurable-goods industries.
The persisting declines were concentrated in the former group,
while slight monthly advances began to show up in the latter,
where average hours worked per week have increased each
month since April.
By August, the decrease of durable-goods factory pay rolls
was finally halted, and the third quarter ended with no major
category of wages and salaries on the downgrade except for
mining, where the coal strike cut into September earnings.
For the quarter as a whole, continuing increments in nonmanufacturing wages sufficed to offset the small additional
drop of factory pay rolls from the second quarter, so that
aggregate labor earnings were virtually unchanged.

Income decline centered in agriculture
Proprietors' and rental income fell from $46% billion, at
an annual rate, in the second quarter to $44 % billion in the
third, thus accounting for most of the decline in personal
income. Only farm proprietors were involved in the decrease,
as business and professional earnings held firm.
A reduction in the seasonally adjusted volume of crops
marketed or placed under government loan was mainly
responsible for the adverse movement of farm income. Livestock sales were little changed. Cash receipts from farming
also suffered from a further decline in agricultural prices,
which averaged appreciably less than in the second quarter.




56.1

55.8

(2)

226.3

223.4

(2)

Compensation of employees
Wages and salaries.
Private
Military
Government civilian .
Supplements to wages and salaries

35.0
33.7
28.5
1.0
4.2
1.3

35.4
34.0
28.7
1.0
4.3
1.4

35.6
34.1
29.3
1.0
39
L4

142.5
137. 5
117.2
4.1
16.2
5.0

141.8
136.5
115.9
4.0
16.6
5.3

142.2
136.6
115.7
4.0
16.8
5.6

Proprietors' and rental income 3 _ _ _ _
Business and professional
Farm
Rental income of persons
__

12.0
6.0
4.3
1.7

11.6
6.0
3.9
1.7

11.1
6.0
3.5
1.6

47.8
24.0
17.1
6.7

46.5
24.1
15.7
6.7

44.5
24.2
13.8
6.5

Corporate profits and inventory valuation adjustment
Corporate profits before tax
Corporate profits tax liability
Corporate profits after tax
Inventory valuation adjustment

8.1
7.5
2.9
4.6
.6

7.7
6.6
2.6
3.9
1.1

(2)
9

31.8
29.4
11.5
17.9
2.3

30.9
26.4
10.6
15.8
4.5

2
(2)
( 2)
( 2)
()
3.5

Net interest

1.0

1.1

11
.

4.2

4.3

4.3

4.9

5.0

4.6

18.9

19.4

19.9

National income

Addendum: Compensation of general Government employees

0)
2

()
W

GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT OR EXPENDITURE

63.7

63.1

64.9

263.5

259.6

256.3

42.1
5.1
23.1
13.9

44.6
6.0
24.5
14.0

44.0
6.5
23.6
13.9

178.6
23.1
100.1
55.4

178.9
23.8
99.3
55.9

178.5
25.8
96.5
56.2

Gross private domestic investment
10.8
New construction __
3.5
5.2
Producers' durable equipment
Change in business inventories, total _ 2.1
Nonfarm only _ _ _
.. 1.8
.2
Net foreign investment

7.0
4.1
5.2
-2.3
-2.5
.3

10.4
4.9
5.0
.4
.4
-.3

41.6
16.8
21.2
3.6
2.3
1.0

35.4
16.4
20.4
-1.4
-2.1
1.2

35.0
17.3
20.1
-2.4
-2.6
-.8

Gross national product
Personal consumption expenditures ..
Durable goods
Nondurable goods
Services __

Government purchases of goods and
services
Federal
Less* Government sales
State and local
__ _

10.4
6.4
.1
4.1

11.2
6.6
.1
4.6

10.8
6.4
.1
4.4

42.3
25.5
.3
17.0

44.0
26.5
.3
17.8

43.6
25.8
.3
18.1

52.5

53.2

52.2

213.7

212.5

210.6

7.3
6.6
.7

3.4
2.7
.6

4.4
3.8
.5

18.8
16.4
2.3

18.7
16.4
2.4

18.8
16.4
2.4

45.2

49.8

47.8

194.9

193.8

191.9

42.1

44.6

44.0

178.6

178.9

178.5

3.1

5.2

3.8

16.3

14.8

13.3

63.7

63.1

64.9

263. 5

259. 6

256. 3

4.1
Less: Capital consumption allowances
Indirect business tax and nontax liability
5.0
.2
Business transfer payments
-1.6
Statistical discrepancy

4.1
5.2
.2
-2.2

4.2
5.4
.2

16.2
20.6
.6
.1

16.6
21.2
.6
-1.9

16.7
21.5
.6
(2)

DISPOSITION OF PERSONAL INCOME

Personal income
Less: Personal tax and nontax payments
Federal
State and local
Equals: Disposable personal income

.

Less: Personal consumption expenditures
E quals : Personal saving

_

RELATION OF GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT,
NATIONAL INCOME, AND PERSONAL INCOME

Gross national product

Plus: Subsidies less current surplus of Government enterprises - _

.1

.1

56.1

55.8

Less: Corporate profits and inventory valuation adjustment
Contributions for social insurance- _
Excess of wage accruals over disbursements
-_

8.1
1.4

Plus: Government transfer payments
Net interest paid by Government
Dividends
Business transfer payments _

2.8
1.0
1.9
.2

2.9
1.4
2.0
.2

52.5

53.2

(2)

Equals: National income

Equals: Personal income

0

.3

.3

( )

226.3

223.4

(2)

7.7
1.4

(2)

31.8
5.2

30.9
5.4

(2)

-.1

0

.1

-.3

0

2.8
1.0
1.8
.2

11.1
4.5
8.4
.6

11.5
4.6
8.4
.6

11.6
4.6
8.4
.6

52.2

213. 7

212. 5

210.6

.1
2

1.4

1 Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding.
Not available.
3 Includes noncorporate inventory valuation adjustment.
Source: U. S. Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics.
2

.3

5.6

BUSINESS STATISTICS
JL HE DATA here are a continuation of the statistics published in the 1949 Statistical Supplement to the SURVEY OF CURRENT BUSINESS.
That volume contains monthly data for the years 1945 to 1948, and monthly averages for earlier years back to 1935 insofar as available; it also
provides a description of each series and references to sources of monthly figures prior to 1945. Series added or revised since publication of the
1949 Supplement are indicated by an asterisk (*) and a dagger (f), respectively, the accompanying footnote indicating where historical data and
a descriptive note may be found. The terms "unadjusted" and "adjusted" used to designate index numbers and dollar values refer to adjustment of monthly figures for seasonal variation.
Data subsequent to September for selected series will be found in the Weekly Supplement to the SURVEY.
Unless otherwise stated, statistics through
1948 and descriptive notes are shown in the
1949 Statistical Supplement to the Survey

1948
September

October

1949

November

December

January

February

March

April

May

June

July

August

September

GENERAL BUSINESS INDICATORS
NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT
Seasonally adjusted quarterly totals at annual rates:
National income, total
bil. of dol
Compensation of employees, total
_ _ do _
Wages and salaries, total
do
Private
do
Military
do
Government civilian
do
Supplements to wages and salaries
do
Proprietors' and rental income, total cf __ d o _ _ _
Business and professional cf
do
Farm
do
Rental income of persons
do
Corporate profits and inventory valuation adjustment total
bil. of dol
Corporate profits before tax, total _ . do
Corporate profits tax liability
do
Corporate profits after tax
_ do
Tnventorv valuation adjustment
do
Net interest
do

230.4
143.3
138.3
118.6

234. 3
144.9
139.8
119.6

15 7

16 1

16 2

49.9
24.5
18.8
66

49.7
24 5
18.5
6 7

47.8
24 0
17.1
6 7

3.9

4.1

5.0

33.3
36.6
14.4
22.2
-3.3

5.0

266.5
180 3
24.8
101.8
53.7
47.1
18 7
21.0
7 4
— .1

270.3
180 9
22.9
103.3
54.8
48.0
17 9
21.2
9 0

39.2
22.8
16.4

40.3
23.4
16 9

Personal income total
Less* Personal tax and nontax payments
Equals: Disposable personal income
__
Personal saving §

215.4
20.2
195.2
15.0

r
r

216 6
20.4
196.2
15.3

55.4
r 41.6
16 8
21.2
r
36
T
1.0

256
178
25
96
56
35
17
20
2

r 1 2

3
5
8
5
2
0
3
1
4

g

r 44 o
r
26 2
r
17 8

42 3
25. 2
17 0
r

213 7
18.8
194.9
r
16 3
r

r

3 5
4 3

259 6
r 178 9
T
23 8
r
99.3
55.9
r
35 4
r
16 4
r
20 4
T _] 4

r

r

30 9
26.4
10 6
15.8
4.3

r 100. 1

C

13 8
& r

r

263. 5
178 6
23. 1

r

K

94 9

r 4 5

T

1.0

IRS

44 5

6 7
r

2.3
4.2

1.2
4.1

142 2
136 6
115 7
4 A

' 15 7

31.8
29.4
11.5
17.9

35.7
34. 5
13.6
20.9

3.9

223. 4
' 141.8
136. 5
115.9
4 0
r
16 6
'5 3
' 46.5
24 1
r
r

4.1

5.0

Gross national product, total
do
Personal consumption expenditures total do
Durable goods
do
Nondurable goods
do
Services
__do _ _ _
Gross private domestic investment
do
New construction
do
Producers' durable equipment
do
Change in business inventories
do
Net foreign investment
do
Government purchases of goods and services,
total
bil of dol
Federal (less Government sales)
do
State and local
do
do
do
do
do

r

226.3
142.5
137.5
117.2

r

43 6
25 5
18 1

212 5
18 7
193. 8
r
14 8

210 6
18 8
191 9
13 3

PERSONAL INCOME, BY SOURCE
Seasonally adjusted, at annual rates:
Total personal income
bil. of dol
Wage and salary receipts, total
do
Employer disbursements, total
do _
Commodity-producing industries
do
Distributive industries
do
Service industries
do
Government
_
do
Less employee contributions for social insurance
_ .__
bil. of dol
Other labor income
do
Proprietors' and rental income _
do _
Personal interest income and dividends. _do
Total transfer payments
do
Total nonagricultural income

do

216. 3
137.7
139.9
62.8
40.4
16.7
20.0

216.3
138.1
140.3
62.7
40.4
16.9
20.3

216.6
137.5
139.7
62.7
39.8
16.9
20.3

217.0
137.1
139.4
62.3
40.0
16.9
20.2

215.7
136.6
138.9
61.4
40.2
17.0
20.3

212.9
135. 0
137. 3
60.6
39.5
16.9
20.3

212.4
133.5
135.8
58.9
39.4
17.1
20.4

212.5
134.7
136.8
58.6
40.5
17.1
20.6

213.1
135.0
137.2
58.3
41.1
17.3
20.5

211.9
133.9
136.2
58.1
40 3
17.1
20.7

209.7
134.2
136.4
57.8
40.5
17.2
20.9

2.2
2.0

2.2
2.0

2.3
2.0

2.3
2.1

2.3
2.1

2.1
2.1

2.2
2.1

49.4
16.5
10.7

49.0
16.8
10.4

49.8
16.9
10.4

50.3
16.9
10.7

49.0
17.0
11.1

47.2
17.1
11.5

47.3
17.1
12.4

46.3
17.2
12.2

46.7
17.3
12.0

2 2
46.5
17.2
12 1

2 1
44.2
17.1
12 1

193.3

192.9

192.8

193.6

192.6

191.7

191.4

192.3

192.6

191.5

191.2

r
211 4
' 134. 4
r
136. 6
r
58.2
r
40 5
r
17.1
r
20 8

2.2
2.0

2.3
2.0

2.3

2.2

210 8
134.7
136 9
58.5
40 6
17 0
20 8

2 2
2 2
45 2
"17.3
12 3

2 2
2 2
44 1
17.' 5
12 3

192 2

193 2

r

r

NEW PLANT AND EQUIPMENT
EXPENDITURES
All industries quarterly total
Manufacturing
Mining
_
_.
Railroad
Other transportation
Electric and gas utilities
Commercial and miscellaneous
r

mil. of dol
do
do
do
do
do
do

4,830
2,090

5 410
2,320

4 460
1, 850

4 660
1,880

1,360

1,440

1,260

1,290

200
320
170
690

220
410
170
850

190
360
130
680

1
Revised.
Estimates based on anticipated capital expenditures of business.
cf Includes inventory valuation adjustment.
§ Personal saving is excess of disposable income over personal consumption expenditures shown as a component of gross national product above.

861354°-—49

4




190
380
140
780

i 4 550
i 1, 770
i 180
i 340
i 140
i 810
1
1, 300


Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, One Federal Reserve Bank Plaza, St. Louis, MO 63102