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SUEVEY OF CURRENT BUSINESS
been passed. A period of hesitancy developed pending
further concrete developments in such strategic matters as
foreign aid, national defense, tax reduction, and the third
round of wage increases. Some of these uncertainties were
being resolved towards the end of the first quarter and
resulted in firmer wholesale prices in March, as well as in a
renewed upturn in other economic indicators.
The shifts which occurred in the components of production
and income from the fourth to the first quarter throw light
on the manner in which temporary stability was being
maintained. The demand for fixed domestic capital investment, which includes construction and producers' durable
equipment, had about the same intensity as in previous
quarters. Changes were apparent, however, in other markets
for the national product. Total consumer expenditures
registered the smallest quarterly increase since the end of
the war, confirming qualitative information indicating a
flattening in consumer demand. The sharp drop in foreign
purchases of American output from the extraordinarily high
levels maintained throughout 1947 constituted another
important change in the basic demand situation.
Partly offsetting the contraction of foreign purchases,
there was a widening flow of foreign aid, largely under the
interim-aid program, which was reflected in increased
Federal Government purchases of goods and services. Also
there occurred a large increase in the accumulation of
nonfarm business inventories over the rates which had
obtained in the second half of 1947. There is evidence,
cited below, that this accumulation was, in'part at least, unintended and occurred as a temporary result of slackening
in other purchases.
Under the offsetting influence of these demand factors,
the major components of the income flow showed" little
Table 2.—National Income and Product, Fourth Quarter 1947
and First Quarter 1948 *
[Billions of dollars]
Unadjusted
Item

Seasonally
adjusted, at
annual rates

1947

1948

1947

1948

IV 2

I

IV 2

I

54.1
33.7
32.5
27.9
1.0
3.6
1.2
12.9
6.3
4.6
1.9
6.6
8.1
3.2
4.9
-1.5
1.0

(3)
33.3
31.9
27.4
1.0
3.6
1.3
13.1
6.4
4.8
1.9

(3)
134.6
129.5
111.9
3.8
13.8
5.1
52.6
25.5
19.3
7.8
(3)
(3)
(3)
(3)
-5.9
3.8

NATIONAL INCOME BY DISTRIBUTIVE SHARES

National income
Compensation of employees
__ . _
Wages and salaries
_
Private
Military.
_
_
Government, civilian
_ __
Supplements to wages and salaries
Proprietors' and rental income * Business and professional
_
_Farm __ __
Rental income of persons
_
Corporate profits and inventory valuation adjustment. _
Corporate profits before tax
_ _
Corporate profits tax liability..
Corporate profits after tax
__
Inventory valuation adjustment
_
Net interest
Addendum: Compensation of general Government
employees

1.0

214.3
132.9
127.8
110.3
3.8
13.7
5.1
51.5
25.4
18.5
7.6
26.1
32.2
12.6
19.7
-6.1
3.8

4.3

4.2

16.4

16.3

62.7
45.8
6.1
28.0
11.8
7.1
3.2
1.6
1.5
4.8
— 8
-!4
2.0
7.7
4.4
.2
3.4

59.8
41.4
4.7
24.7
12.0
9.6
2.7
1.3
1.4
4.8
2.2
2.3
1.0
7.7
4.7
.3
3.3

240.9

244.3

8
8
-1.5

GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT OR EXPENDITURE

Gross national product
... - _ _
Personal consumption expenditures
Durable goods
__.. ._
Nondurable goods
Services
Gross private domestic investment
New construction
Residential nonfarm
Other
Producers' durable equipment
Change in business inventories, total
Nonfarm only
Net foreign investment
Government purchases of goods and services
Federal
Less' Government sales
_
State and local
.,
See footnotes at end of table.




_

_ __
- - -

172.5
21.3
104.2
47.0
29.9
12.4
6.3
6.1
18.8
-1.3
.6
8.2
30.3
17.7
.8
13.3

173.2
20.7
104.3
48.2
36.0
13.1
6.6
6.5
18.8
4.1
4.8
4.2
31.0
19.0
1.3
13.3

May 1948

Table 2.—National Income and Product, Fourth Quarter 1947
and First Quarter 1948 x—Continued
[Billions of dollars]
Unadjus ted
1947

1948

1947

1948

IV 2

Item

Seasonally
adjusted, at
annual rates

I

IV 2

I

52.5
4.2
3.8
.4
48.3
45.8
2.4

51.6
9.2
8.6
.6
42.4
41.4
1.0

205.8

209.2

62.7
3.2
4.9
.1
.3

59.8
3.2
4.6
.1
3
()

240.9

244.3

-.1
54.1

-.1
(3)

—.2
214.3

-.4
(3)

6.6
1.2
.0
2.7
1.1
2.2
.1
52.5

(3)
1.4
.0
2.8
1.1
1.7
.1
51.6

26.1
5.2
.0
10.5
4.4
7.3
.5

DISPOSITION OF PERSONAL INCOME

Personal income
._ _ _
Less : Personal tax and nontax payments
Federal
State and local
Equals: Disposable personal income
Less: Personal consumption expenditures
Equals: Personal saving
RELATION

__ _-

22.1
20.2
1.9
183. 7
172.5
11.2

23.0
21.1
2.0
186.1
173.2
12.9

OF GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT, NATIONAL
INCOME, AND PERSONAL INCOME

Gross national product
Less: Capital consumption allowances _ .
Indirect business tax and nontax liability
Business transfer payments
Statistical discrepancy
.
Plus: Subsidies less current surplus of government enterprises
Equals: National income
Less: Corporate profits and inventory valuation adjustment
--. - -_
Contributions for social insurance
Excess of wage accruals over disbursements
Plus: Government transfer payments
Net interest paid by government .. ._ _ . - _ .
Dividends
Business transfer payments
Equals: Personal income

12.7
19.1
.5
-5.9

205.8

12.7
18.7
.5
3
()

(3)

~*
o. 3
.0
10.9
4.5
7.5
.5

209.2

1
2

Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding.
Data for the fourth quarter of 1947 are the same as those in the February issue of the
SURVEY with the exception that an actual estimate of fourth quarter corporate profits has
been substituted for the arbitrary figure previously aasumed. Revisions of the national
income and product estimates for 1947 to incorporate recent information will be made in the
July issue of the SURVEY. It should be noted that in the interim national product data w ill
not agree fully with revised information already published for certain components of national
product, notably new private construction and net foreign investment.
3 Not available.
4
Includes noncorporate inventory-valuation adjustment.
Source: U. S. Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics.

change. The drop in farm prices, the only development
significantly affecting incomes, was not fully reflected in
farm income for the first quarter, which includes the month
of January, when prices received by farmers were at an
all-time peak.
Developments in the major components of the product arid
income flow are reviewed briefly below.
1. Personal consumption expenditures were at an annual
rate of 173 billion dollars in the first quarter of 1948. As
already noted, the less than 1 billion increase from the
fourth quarter was the smallest since the end of the war
and reflected a small price increase rather than volume.
On an over-all basis, the high rate of consumer spending
characteristic of the postwar period was maintained, but
there was a noticeable easing of inflationary pressures.
2. Private domestic capital formation, which includes new
construction, the purchase of producers7 durable equipment,
and the net change in.business inventories, rose to 36 billion
dollars in the first quarter.
In spite of an unusually severe winter, private construction (both residential and nonresidential) continued to
advance on a seasonally adjusted basis. The heavy demand for auxiliary commercial construction created by the
high rate of residential building in the past 2 years and
deferred needs was clearly evident in nonresidential construction activity.
Purchases of producers' durable equipment likewise showed
little change from the quarters reviewed in previous issues
of the SURVEY. Expenditures for these items continued at
the extraordinarily high annual rate of 19 billion dollars to
which they had risen in the fourth quarter. Purchases of
equipment by certain industries—mainly, transportation and
public utilities—were still expanding. However, limitations

WlontkL

BUSINESS STATISTICS

THE:DATA here are a continuation of the statistics published in the 1942 Supplement to the SURVEY OF CURRENT BUSINESS. That volume
1
contains monthly data for the years 1938 to 1941, and monthly averages for earlier years back to 1913 insofar as available; it also provides a
description of each series and references to sources of monthly figures prior to 1938. Series added or revised since publication of the 1942 Supplement are indicated by an asterisk (*) and a dagger (t), respectively, the accompanying footnote indicating where historical data and a descriptive
note may be found. The terms "unadjusted" and "adjusted" used to designate index numbers refer to adjustment of monthly figures for seasonal
variation.
Data subsequent to March for selected series will be found in the Weekly Supplement to the Survey.
Unless otherwise stated, statistics through
1941 and descriptive notes may be found
in the 1942 Supplement to the Survey

1948

1947

March

April

May

June

July

August

September

October

November

December

January

February

March

GENERAL BUSINESS INDICATORS
NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT*
Seasonally adjusted quarterly totals at annual rates:
National income
bil of dol
Compensation of employees
do
Wages and salaries
do
Private
do
Military
do
Government civilian
do
Supplements to wages and salaries
do
Proprietors' and rental income _ _ .
do. _
Business and professional
do
Farm
do
Rental income of persons
do
Corporate profits and inventory valuation adjustment
_
bil. of dol
Corporate profits before tax
do
Corporate profits tax liability
do
Corporate profits after tax
do
Inventory valuation adjustment
do
Net interest
_ _ . _ do_ _

194.6
124.7
119.1
101.2
4.6
13.3
5.6

46.2
22.4
16.8
7.0

199.8
125.6
120.0
102. 7
4.1
13.2
5.6
46.7
22.9
16.6
7.2

203.3
128.7
123.6
106.2
3.9
13.5
5.1
47.0
23.5
16.2
7.3

••214 3
132.9
127 8
110 3
3.8
13.7
5. 1
51.5
25 4
18.5
7 6

134. 6
129.5
111.9
3.8
13.8
5.1
52.6
25.5
19.3
7.8

20.4
28.9
11.5
17.4
—8.6
3.3

23.9
27.8
10.9
16.9
-3.8
3.5

23.9
28.2
11.1
17.1
—4.3
3.7

26.1
32 2
12.6
19 7
—6 1
3.8

-5.9
3.8

Gross national product
do
Personal consumption expenditures
do
Durable goods
do
Nondurable goods ._ ._ .
do
Services
do
Gross private domestic investment
do
New construction
do
Producers' durable equipment
do
Change in business inventories
do
Net foreign investment
do
Government purchases of goods and services
bil of dol
Federal (less Government sales)
do
State and local
do

221.0
156.9
18.2
94.7
44.0
28.2
10.3
16.4
1.6
8.3

226.9
162.3
19.3
98.4
44.6
26.1
9.6
17.9
—1.4
10.4

229.4
165.8
20.2
99.9
45.7
27.0
10.4
18.4
— 1.7
7.8

240 9
172.5
21 3
104 2
47 0
29.9
12 4
18 8
—1 3
8.2

244.3
173.2
20.7
104.3
48.2
36.0
13.1
18.8
4.1
4.2

27.6
16.2
11.4

28.2
16.3
11.9

28.7
16.2
12.5

30 3
16.9
13 3

31.0
17.7
13.3

Personal income. _
do
Less: Personal tax and nontax payments do
Equals: Disposable personal income
do
Personal savings §
do
PERSONAL INCOME*
Seasonally adjusted, at annual rates:
Total personal income
bil. of dol
Wage and salary receipts, total
do
Total employer disbursements . „ _. do _
Commodity-producing industries
do
Distributive industries
do
Service industries
do
Government
do
Less employee contributions for social insurance
bil. of doL.
Other labor income
_ do
Proprietors' and rental income
.
do
Personal interest income and dividends. . do
Total transfer payments
__
do

189.8
21.0
168.8
11.9

191.' 4
21.2
170.1
7.8

199.6
21.6
177.9
12.1

205 8
22.1
183 7
11 2

209.2
23.0
186.1
12.9

190.6
117.0
119.1
53.4
33.5
14.6
17.6

189.4
116.0
118.2
52.8
33.1
14.8
17.5

190.5
117.3
119.4
53.5
33.8
14.9
17.2

194.1
120.1
122.2
54.9
34.9
15.2
17.2

194.9
119.9
122.0
54.4
35.0
15.4
17.2

193.8
121.2
123.3
55.5
35.2
15.2
17.4

209.9
123.2
125.2
56.7
35.8
15.2
17.5

203.2
123.7
125.7
57.2
35.8
15.1
17.6

204.2
126.4
128.4
58.8
36.8
15.2
17.6

210.4
128.1
130.1
60.3
37.1
15.2
17.5

211.4
128.2
130.3
60.1
37.4
15.4
17.4

2.1
1.7
46.8
14.2
10.9

2.2
1.7
46.5
14.3
10.9

2.1
1.8
46.5
14.4
10.5

2.1
1.8
47.1
14.6
10.5

2.1
1.8
47.4
14.7
11.1

2.1
1.8
45.5
14.9
10.4

2.0
1.8
48.1
15.6
21.2

2.0
1.9
50.4
15.4
11.8

2.0
1.9
49.9
15.5
10.5

2.0
1.9
54.0
15.6
10.8

2.1
1.9
54.5
15.7
11.1

'207.7
'129.2
' 58. 3
'37.7
'15.5
' 17. 7

208.5
127.1
129.2
58.2
37.7
15.5
17.8

2.1
1.9
' 51. 6
15.8
'11.3

2.1
1.8
51.5
16.0
12.1

r 127.1

172.4
173.0
' 184. 1
168.8
169.7
188.7
173.8
168.3
184.8
Total nonagricultural income
do
180.6
182.3
184.6
185.6
NEW PLANT AND EQUIPMENT
EXPENDITURES*
3,940
3,160
4,960
All industries, total
_ _ ._ _ _ mil. of dol
4,140
4,480
450
Electric and gas utilities. _ .
do. _
330
620
500
510
2,010
Manufacturing and mining
do
1,600
2,500
2,050
2,140
220
Railroad
_ _ do
160
310
230
340
1,260
1,080
1,530
Commercial and miscellaneous.
do. __
1,360
1,500
FARM INCOME AND MARKETINGS
Cash farm income, total, including Government
2,211
2,662
2,076
1,974
2,026
2,581
1,866
3,060
payments*
_
.
_ mil. of dol.
2,517
2,927
3,773
3,109
2,185
1,914
1,989
2, 505
2,657
2,909
2,555
From marketings and C. C. C. loans* _ _ do. .
2,010
1,837
3,049
3,096
3,759
1,961
' 743
621
1,205
692
594
1,044
717
1,187
Crops*
do
1,299
1,497
2,122
698
1,540
1,442
1,452
1,318
1,368
1,318
Livestock and products*
..do .
1,320
1,610
• 1, 511
1,120
1,556
1,552
1,637
1,263
392
382
345
379
353
Dairy products*
do
345
329
303
318
293
334
373
319
782
705
785
Meat animals* _ _
do.
743
726
711
1,019
968
593
970
958
1,039
645
251
232
234
224
261
Poultry and eggs*.
_.do_ __
236
279
201
206
244
262
280
237
' Revised. § Personal savings is the excess of disposable income over p ersonal coiisumption expenditur es shown a s a compoilent of gros s national product at>ove.
* New series. Quarterly data for 1939-46 and annual data begginning 1929 for nation al income s nd °ross Weitional pro<iuct and nlonthly da1ba for 1929- 46 for perse nal incom<> are publisbed in the
"National Income Supplement to Survey of Current Business", ^which is a\ ailable frorn the Supe rintendent of Documejnts, Wash ington, D. C.,for25c ents; these series are c ompiled b^f the U.S.
Department of Commerce. For description of the series on plaiat and equ ipment exi>enditures and data f or 1929-45, see p. 24 of the Ma rch 1948 S urvey; firs t quarter of 1948 est" mates are
based on anticipated capital expenditures of business. Revisionis for Janu ary 1945-M ay 1946 for• farm inco me are av ailable on request; see note in Septembei- 1947 Sur vey regard ing earlier
data; revisions beginning 1945 were in part to adjust the series tolevels indi cated by IS 45 Census data: 1940- 44 data ha ve not bee]a similarly revised.
L
7S640f»° — 48- —4




S-:


Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, One Federal Reserve Bank Plaza, St. Louis, MO 63102