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SURVEY OF CURRENT BUSINESS

liMi-4

The Tax Cut
The direct income effects of the 1964
Federal tax reduction are shown in the
accompanying two charts on personal
and corporate income. In addition to
raising disposable personal income and
after-tax profits of the business sector,
the tax law revisions also, of course,
affected the Federal fiscal position.

Personal spending and saving

The tax cut has stimulated consurnption expenditures this year although it
is difficult to make a precise estimate of

Table 1. — Gross National Product in Current and Constant Dollars (1-3, 1-5)



1964

1963
1961 1962

1963

II

III

I

IV

1963
1961 1962

II

Seasonally adjusted at
annual rates

Personal income and taxes

Since the tax cut became effective on
March 5, its direct effects on disposable
personal income can be traced most
clearly by examining changes from the
fourth quarter of 1963 to the second
quarter of 1964. Over this period
personal income rose by $13% billion,
an advance not much different from the
rise in the second half of 1963, Disposable income had advanced by an
average of $6 billion per quarter in the
second half of last year, and—in the
absence of the tax law changes—the
increase in disposable income would
have continued at roughly this rate in
the opening two quarters of this year,
given the actual increase in personal
income.
In fact, spendable income was up
much more sharply: by more than $8 billion in the first quarter and by $12
billion in the second quarter, or more
than $20 billion at an annual rate for
the 6-month period. It is estimated
that the tax reduction directly increased
spendable income by roughly $9 billion
(annual rate) in the first half. The 2%
percent advance in disposable income,
in the spring quarter, it may be noted,
was the sharpest in the current expansion and the second largest quarterly
advance since the end of the Korean War.
Due to a number of offsets the actual
decline in total personal taxes (including State and local) over the half year
was only $6/4 billion rather than approximately $9 billion. As economic
activity and income continued to rise,
State and local taxes increased by onehalf of a billion dollars. The impact of
rising incomes also tended to limit the
decline in Federal personal taxes, which
fell $7^ billion over the half year. The
decrease in withheld income taxes was
somewhat larger than this but other
Federal taxes (especially payments under the quarterly declarations system)
continued to rise.


the size of this increase. It is also
evident that so far a good part of the
tax cut has been saved.
As pointed out above, personal con-

III

II

I

IV

II

Seasonally adjusted at
annual rates

;

Billions of current dollars
Gross national product

1963

1964

•

Billions of 19.54 dollars

518. 7 556.2 583.9 577.4 587.2 599.0 608.8 618.6 447.9 476.4 492.6 487.9 494.8 502.0 508. 0 513.5

Personal consumption expenditures
337. 3 356.8 375.0 372. 0 377.4 381. 3 390.0 396. 1303.8 318.5 330.6 328.6 332.4 334.4 340. 9 345.0
43.7 48.4 52. 1 51.5 52.2 53.6 55.9 57.0 41.4 45.7 49.3 48.6 49.4 50. 8 53.1 54. 0
9
155 4 16 0 167.5 166. 6 168. 6 168. 9 172.9 175. 3 143.5 148.3 151. 6 151. 1 152. 5 152. 1 155. 2 157. 4
138.3 146.4 155. 3 153. 9 156. 6 158. 8 161.1 163.8 118. 9 124. 5 129. 7 128. 9 130.6 131. 6 132. 6 133.7

Durable goods
Nondurable good's
Services
Gross private domestic investment

G8 8 79.1 82.0 80.2 82.8

87.1 85.9 87.2 57.4 65.9 67.7 66.2 68.1 71.7 70.1 70.8

41.0 44.2 46.6 45.9 47.2 48.3 49.2 48.9 34.3 36.7 37.9 37.5 38.2 39.0 39.6 39.2

New construction
Residential n on farm
Other
.
..

'n i

23 6 25 '> 25. 1 25. 4 26. 2 26.9 26.2 18.2 20. 1 21.2 21.2 21.2 21.8 22 3 21.6
19.8 20.6 21.3 20.8 21. 9 22.1 22.3 22.7 16.1 16. 5 16.7 16.4 17.0 17. 2 17.3 17.5

Producers' d u r a ) -le equipment. 25.9 29. 0 31.0 30.7 31.4 32.4 34.2 34.6 21.4 24.0 25.6 25.4 25.9 26. 8 28.1 28.3
Change in business! nventories _

1.9

5.9

1. 5 5.3
3 .6

Nonfarm
Farm

Nat exports of goods and services, _ 4.6

4.0

5.2

4.4

3.6

3.9

3.2
.5

3.7
.5

6.0
.4

2.2
.3

3.4
.3

1.5
.2

4.8
.4

4.4

4.3

4.2

5.8

7.7

5.7

2.5

2.2

4.2

6.4

2.5

3.7

1.7

4.1

3.3

4.0

5.9

2. 4

3.3

3.6
.5

2.7
.5

3.4
.6

5.5
.4

2.1
.3

3.0
.3

2.2

2.1

2.0

3.5

5.4

3.4

27.6 29. 2 30.7 30.5 31.0 32.6 34.5 33.7 25.8 27. 5 29.1 28.9 29.4 30.9 32.7 31.9
23.0 25. 2 26.3 26.3 26.8 26.9 26.8 27.9 23.3 25.3 26. 8 26.8 27.4 27.4 27.3 28. 5

Exports
Imports

Government purchases of goods
and services
108.0 116.3 122.6 120.9 122.8 124.8 125.2 129.6 84.3 89.8

92.1 91.0

92.3 92.4 91.6

94.3

57. 4 62.9 64.7 64.3 64.4 64.9 64.3 67.1 44.8 49.4 49.7 49.4 49.6 48. 9 47.8 49.8

Federal
National defense
Other
Less: Government sales

49.0 53. 6 55.2 55.2 55.5 55.3 54.0 57.0
8.9 10.2 10.3 9.9 9.5 10.5 11.5 11.0
.9
.9 1.2
.6
.8 .9
.9
.6
50.6 53.5 57.9 56.7 58.4 59.9 60.9 62.5 39.4 40.3 42.4 41.7 42.7 43.4 43.8 44.5

State and local

Table 2.—National Income by Type of Income (1-8, 1-9)
[Billions of dollars]
1964

1963
1961

1962

1963

II

III

IV

I

II

Seasonally adjusted at annual rates
National income.

426.9

455.6

478.5

474.6

481.9

490.0

498.4

1506.6

302.2
278 8
997 o
10.2
41.6
23.4
11.8
11. 6

323.1
297. 1
241.6
10.8
44.7
25.9
13.6
12.3

340. 3
312.1
252.9
10.9
48.3
28.2
15.1
13.1

338.1
310.1
251.6
10.7
47.8
27.9
15.0
13.0

342.7
314.3
255. 0
10.7
48.7
28.4
15.2
13.2

347.7
318.8
257.6
11.7
49.6
28.8
15.4
13.4

352.5
323. 2
260. 8
11.7
50. 7
29.4
15.7
13.7

358.6
328.
265.
11.
51.
29. 9
15.9
14.0

9.2
2 4

9.7
2.6

10.4
2 7

Proprietors' income
Business and professional
Income of unincorporated enterprises
Inventory valuation adjustment
Farm

48.2
35 3
35.3
0

50.6
37.6
37. 6
0
13.0

50.1
37.3

50.7

51.5
38.3

51.2
38.6

51.7
39.1

r> 9

49.8
36.6
36. 6
0
13.2

12.8

12.9

13.2

12.6

12.6

Rentalincome of persons

12.2

12.2

12.3

12.3

12.4

12.4

12.4

12.4

Corporate profits and inventory valuation adji stment _ _ _
Profits before tax
Profits tax liability
Profits after tax
Dividends
Undistributed profits
Inventory valuation adjustment

44.1
44.2
22 3
21.9
15.2
6.7
-.1

48.4
48.2
23.2
25.0
16. 5
8.5
.3

50.8
51.3
24.6
26.7
18.0
8.7
-.4

50.2
51.1
24.5
26.6
17.7
8.9
-.9

51.4
51.3
24.5
26.7
17.9
8.9
2

53.1
54.3
26.0
28.3
19.1
9.2
-1.2

56.4
56. 6
25. 4
31.2
19.4
11.8
-.2

Net interest

20.1

22.1

24.4

24.0

24.7

25.4

25.9

Compensation of employees
Wages and salaries
Private
Military
Government civilian
Supplements t o wages and salaries
Employer contributions for social insurance
Other labor income _ _
Employer contributions to private pension
and welfare funds
Other

37.8

J

57.4
57.4
25. 8
31.7
19.8
11. 9
—.1
26.5

1. Second-quarter national income total and the corporate profits share are based on preliminary estimates and are subject,
to revision in next month's SURVEY.

SURVEY OF CURRENT BUSINESS

6
sumption expenditures increased by
nearly $15 billion from the close of 1963
to the spring of 1964. In the same
period, personal saving rose $5% billion
and the saving rate (personal saving
as a percent of disposable income) rose
from a little over 7 percent to a little
over 8 percent. The second quarter
rate is near the upper end of the comparatively narrow range of 6 to 8)2 per-

cent in which the personal saving rate
has fluctuated since the end of the
Korean War. In the past increases in
disposable income about as large as the
2% percent gain of the second quarter
1964 have typically been associated
witli large increases in the saving rate.
However, the length of time it has
taken for the rate to return to a more
typical figure has varied.

Table 3.—Personal Income and Its Use (H-2)
[Billions of dollars]

1963

1964

;
..

1961

1962

1963

II

III

IV

I

II

Seasonally a( justed at annual rates
Personal income

417.6

442.4

464.1

460. 2

466.3

474.5

480.9

487.9

278.8
110.8
87. 5
72. 9
43.4
51.8

Wage and salary disbursements
Commodity-producing industries
Manufacturing only
Distributive industries
Service industries
. . _ . _ _
Government-

297.1
118.5
94. 2
76.6
46.4
55. 6

312.1
123.3
98.0
80.3
49.3
59.2

310. 1 i 314.3
124. 1
122.9
97. 7
98.5
79.7
81. 0
49.0
49.9
59.4
58.5

318.8
125.5
99.9
81. 9
50. 2
61. 3

323. 2
1 26. 7
100.6
82. 7
51.3
62. 4

328. 7
128.9
102.4
84. 1
52.4
63.4

Other labor income

11.6

12. 3

13. 1

13.0

13.2

13.4

13.7

14. 0

Proprietors' income
Business and professional
Farm

48.2
35.3
12.9

49.8
36. 6
13.2

50.6
37.6
13.0

50.1
37.3
12.8

50. 7
37.8
12.9

51.5
38.3
13.2

51.2
38.6
12.6

51.7
39. 1
12.6

Rental income of persons

12 2

12.2

12.3

12.3

12.4

12.4

12.4

12.4

Dividends
Personal interest in come

15.2
27.5

16.5
30. 0

18.0
32. 9

17.7
32.4

17.9
33. 4

19.1
34.2

19.4
35. 0

19.8
35.7

Transfer payments
Old-age and survivor s insurance benefits
State unemployment insurance benefits
Veterans' benefits
Other

33.6
12.6
4.0
4.8
12 2

J 4.7
14.3
2.9
4.8
12.7

36. 7
15.2
2.8
5.0
13.7

36. 3
15.3
2. 6
5.0
13.3

36. 5
15. 4
2.6
5.0
13.4

37.2
15.4
3. 0
5. 1
13. 6

38.3
15.6
2.8
5. 2
14. 8

38.0
16. 1
2.5
5.3
14.2

9.6

10.3

11.8

11.7

11.9

12.1

12. 3

12. 5

Less. Personal tax and nontax payments
Federal
State and local
Equals: Disposable personal income

52.9
45.1
7.8
364. 7

57.9
49.1
8.8
384.6

61.6
51.9
9.6
402. 5

61.1
51. 5
9. 6
399. 1

61.9
52.2
9. 7
404. 4

63. 3
53. 4
9.9
411.2

61.4
51.2
10.2
419. 5

56.6
46.1
10.5
431.3

Less: Personal consumption expenditures
Equals: Personal saving

337.3
27. 3

356.8
27.8

375.0
27.5

372.0
27. 1

377. 4
2<.0

381.3
29.9

390. 0
29.5

396. 1
35.2

Addendum- Disposable personal income in constant
(1954) dollars

328.2

343.4

354.9

352.6

356. 3

360.7

366.7

375.7

Less: Personal contributions for social insurance. _

Table 4.—Gross National Product by Major Type of Product in Current and Constant
Dollars (1-6, 1-7)

1961 1962 | 1963

III

II

Billions of current dollars

Final sales
Inventory change.

I IV

I

I

II

Seasonally adjusted at
annual rates

Seasonally adjusted at
annual rates

Gross natio nal product

I III

Billions of 1954 dollars

518. 7 556. 2 583. 9J577. 4J587. 2 599. 0 608. 8 618. 6 447. 9|476. 4 492. 6 487. 9 494. 8 502. 0;508. OJ513. 5

516. 8 550. 3 79.,
1.9

583. OJ592. 61606. 4;614.9 446.

? 47 i;

488. 5 484. 6 490. 9:496. 1|505. 6 510. 2
4.1| 3.3 4 . 0 | 5.9! 2 . 4 3.3

Durable goods outputFinal sales
Inventory change

259.8279.5290. 2290.1 289, 81296. 71300. 7308, 0 233. 61250.3 258. 1 257. 7 257.8! 263.2! 266. 2(271. 8
0!254. 41253. 8J257. 3!263. 8 268. 5
257.9 273. 61285. 8:286. 5,285, 7 290. 3! 298. 2 304. 3232. OJ245.
H 3.3; 4.0 5.9! 2.4 3.3
7i 5.
1.9 5.9 4, 4| 3.6l 4. 2\ 6.4! 2.5! 3.
I
i
i
I
82. l j 91.
96, 3! 98.7! 94.3! 99.01100.4 105. 4
94.41105.3 110.41113. 7 108.1J113.4
0| 82. 11 89.: 94. 4 j 96. 4 j 93. 0! 96.4! 99.8 103.3
94 5J102. 3!l08. 2111. 0 106. o]110. 4
1. 9! 2.3| 1. 2l 2.6!
.6 2. 1
5 -. 1 j 2. I
- . l j 3.0J 2.2J 2.7 1.5| 3.0

Nondurable goods output
Final sales
Inventory change..

O[ lOO. O l LOO.
U
165. 4 174. 2J179. 8J176. 4J181.. 81183. 3185.'I IfM). 6:151. 61158. 6J161. 8H59. 0 163. 61164. 21165. 8 166. 4
41149. 81155. 9:159. 61158. 0 160. 8J160. 9J164. Ojl65. 2
i
163. 4 171.3 177. 61175. 5|179.. l 1179. 9 183.9 185.4
.9! 2. 7 3.4 1.8| 1.2 1. 7! 2. 6' 2. 3i 1.0 2.7! 3.3j 1.8| 1.2
!.
2.0

Goods output
Final sales
Inventory change

!

|

i

I

200. 8! 214. 71228.4 223. 5 231.2 234.5239.61241.7

4|174. 8:181. 4|l78.1J183. 5i 184. 2J186. 8! 186. 7

Construction

58.1 62.0J 65.2! 63.7 66.2 67 J 68.6! 68.9

!
9 j 51. 3; 53. 0 52.11 53. 5| 54.6! 55. o| 55.0

Addendum: Auto product.

17.7 21.91 24.4| 24.2 24.3 25.6 2 5 . 8 1 2 6 . 4 14. 8J 18. 3' 20. 4 20. l| 20.4 21. 6J 21.7 22.0

Services




August 1964
Corporate income and taxes

In contrast to the personal income
tax cut, the entire direct effects of the
corporate tax reduction were reflected
in first quarter after-tax profits. The
decline in the tax rate, coupled with
a continued gain in corporate before-tax
profits, led to a very sharp increase in
after-tax earnings.
In the first quarter, the $2% billion
rise in profits before taxes (excluding
the inventory valuation adjustment) at
the old tax rates would have yielded
a rise in after-tax profits of about $1%
billion. The actual rise was nearly $3
billion, so that roughly $1% billion is
traceable to the new tax law. After-tax
profits advanced slightly in the second
quarter, reflecting a rise in before-tax
profits of about three-quarters of a
billion dollars.
Federal corporate tax accruals actually declined by only one-half of a
billion dollars from fourth quarter to
first, as the jump in profits before taxes
nearly offset the effects of the tax
reduction (see chart).
Dividends have continued to rise at
a moderate pace this year so that most
of the increase in after-tax income has
gone into retained earnings. The latter
have risen by $2% billion in the past 6
months. The increase in corporate
internal funds—retained earnings plus
capital consumption allowances—has
been $3% billion, or nearly one-tenth,
since the fourth quarter.
The Federal Budget

Reflecting the initial full quarter
effects of reduced receipts due to the
tax cut and the increase in defense expenditures, the Federal deficit on income and product account was $9
billion at a seasonally adjusted annual
rate in the second quarter. This was
a sharp change from the small deficit
incurred in the first quarter, which was
mainly the result of the drop in taxes,
stemming from the new tax law. In
1963, witli revenues rising in line witli
economic activity and with total Federal outlays changing little during the
year, there was a steady decline in the
deficit, from an annual rate of nearly
$5 billion in the opening quarter of the
year to an approximate balance in the
closing quarter.

BUSINESS STATISTICS
A HE STATISTICS here update series published in the 1963 edition of BUSINESS STATISTICS, biennial Statistical Supplement to the SURVEY
OF CURRENT BUSINESS. That volume (price $2.00) contains data by months, or quarters, for the years 1959 through 1962 (1951-62, for major
quarterly series) and averages of monthly or quarterly data for all years back to 1939; it also provides a description of each series and references
to sources of earlier figures. Series added or significantly revised after the 1963 BUSINESS STATISTICS went to press are indicated by an asterisk
(*) and a dagger (f), respectively; certain revisions for 1962 issued too late for inclusion in the aforementioned volume appear in the monthly
SURVEY beginning with the August 1963 issue. Also, unless otherwise noted, revised monthly data (for periods not shown herein) corresponding
to revised monthly averages are available upon request. Except as otherwise stated, the terms ''unadjusted" and "adjusted" refer to adjustment
for seasonal variation.
Statistics originating in Government agencies are not copyrighted and may be reprinted freely,
through the courtesy of the compilers, and are subject to their copyrights.
Unless otherwise stated, statistics through 1962
and descriptive notes are shown in the 1963
edition of BUSINESS STATISTICS

1961

| 1962 | 1963

1961
III

Annual total

1962
IV

I

II

Data from private sources are provided
1963

( '•'' '

III

I

IV

II

1964
III

| IV

III

I

II

"506 6

Seasonally adjusted quarterly totals at annual rates

GENERAL BUSINESS INDICATORS—Quarterly Series
NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT
National income, totalf

bil. $--

Conipen c ation of employees, total

do

W'i(Tes and salaries total
do _ .
Private
-^°- -"Military
- -d°
Government civilian
do_
Supplements to wages and salaries
do
Proprietors' income totalcf
do
Business and professionalc?
_
do_
Farm
d°
Rental income of persons
do
Corporate profits and inventory valuation adjustment total
_bil. $
Corporate profits before tax, total.
Corporate profits tax liability
Corporate profits after tax
Dividends
Undistributed, profits
Inventory valuation adjustment

_.do_ __
do
_ _do_
do
do
do.

426. 9

455. 6

478.5

429. 7

442.4

447.2

454.3

457.8

463. 2

467.9

474.6

481.9

490.0

498.4

! 302. 2

323. 1

340.3

304.7

310.7

316.6

322.4

325.3

328.0

332.7

338.1

342.7

347.7

35° 5

358 6

278. 8
227.0
10.2
41.6
23.4
48.2
35. 3
12.9
12.2

297.1
241. 6
10.8
44.7
25.9
49.8
36.6
13.2
12.2

312.1
252. 9
10.9
48.3
28.2
50.6
37. 6
13.0
12.3

281. 1
228.9
10.0
42.2
23.6
48.5
35. 7
12.8
12.2

286.8
233.2
10.8
42.8
23.9
49. 6
36.3
13.3
12. 2

291.2
236. 5
11.1
43. 6
25. 4
50. 0
36. 3
13.7
12.2

296. 6
241. 5
11.0
44.1
25 8
49. 9
36. 6
13.3
12.2

299.2
243. 5
10.7
45.0
26 1
49. 7
36. 7
13 0
12.2

301.6
244.8
10.5
46.3
26 4
49 7
36. 9
12 8
12 2

305.3
247.5
10.6
47.2
97 4
50 3
37 1
13 2
12 3

310. 1
251. 6
10.7
47.8
27 9
50 1
37 3
12 8
12 3

314 3
255. 0
10.7
48 7
9S 4
50 7
37 8
12 9
12 4

318 8
257. 6
11. 7
49 6
°8 8
51 5
38 9
3
13
12 4

393 2
°60 8
11.7
50 7
99 4
51 9
38 6
I9 6
12 4

328 7
9
65 3
11 7
51 7
99 9
51 7
39 i
9
I9 6
I 4

44.1

48.4

50.8

44.0

49.0

47.1

48.0

48.3

50.3

49 1

50 2

51 4

53 1

56 4

f 57 4

44.2
22.3
21.9
15.2
6.7

48.2
23.2
25.0
16.5
8.5
.3

51.3
24.6
26.7
18. 0
8.7
-.4

44.3
22.3
22.0
15.1
6.9
-.3

49.3
24.8
24.5
15.7
8.8
-.3

47.2
22.7
24.5
16.1
8.4
-.1

47.9
23 0
24.9
16.4
8.5
.0

48.1
23 1
25.0
16.5
8.5
.1

49 4
23 8
25 7
17.1
86
.9

48 9
23 4
25 5
17.2
83
2

51 1
24 5
26 6
17.7
89
— 9

51 3
24 5
26*7
17.9
89
2

54 3

56 6
95 4
31 9
19. 4
11 8
— 2

*>r>7
7>95
P
31
pl9.
f'll

-.1

9fi 0
9g 3

19.1
9 2
—1 2

4 ._
8
7
8
9
1

do

20.1

22.1

24.4

20.4

20.9

21.3

21.8

22 3

22 9

23 5

24 0

24 7

25 4

25 9

26 5

do

518.7

556. 2

583.9

522. 4

536.9

545.5

553 4

559 0

566 6

571 8

577 4

587 2

599 0

608 8

r g;[g (J

Personal consumption expenditures, total. .do

337. 3

356.8

375.0

339.1

345. 2

350.5

354.0

358.5

364.0

369.2

372.0

377.4

381. 3

390.0

r

43 7
17. 1
19.3
155.4
28.7
81.3
11.9
138 3
20.4
44 2
10.7

48.4
20.6
20.2
162.0
29.9
84.6
12.3
146.4
21.6
46.5
11.3

52.1
22.7
21.4
167.5
30.7
87.1
12.8
155 3
22.7
48 9
11.7

44 3
17.4
19.5
155. 7
28.7
81.4
11.9
139 1
20.6
44 4
10.7

46 0
18 6
19.9
157 8
29. 4
82.2
12.0
141 4
20 9
45 o
10.8

47 4
19 7
20.1
159 5
29 6
83.2
12 2
143 6
21 3
45 6
11. 1

47 7
20 3
19.9
161 0
29 7
84.1
12 2
145 3
21 3
46 2
11 2

48 4
20 5
20.3
162 9
30 0
85 2
12 3
147 2
21 7
46 8
11 4

50 2
21 8
20.6
164 4
30 2
85 9
12 5
149 5
22 0
47 5
11 5

51 1
2? 4
20.8
166 0
30 4
86 4
12 7
152 1
29 4

/y? 2

53 6
93 9
22.3
168 9
30 9
87 8
13 0
158 8

55 9
94 3
23.1
172 9
32 1
89 7
13 3
161 1

48 0
11 6

51 5
22 6
21.0
166 6
30 1
86 9
12 8
153 9
22 4
48 6
117

49 8
11 8

12 0

do

68. 8

79.1

82.0

71.3

74.9

77.4

78.9

80.2

79.9

77.9

80.2

82.8

87.1

85.9

...do. .
do
do
do
do_-

41 0
21 1
25.9
1.9

44 2
23 6
29.0
5.9
5.3

46 6
95 2
31.0
4.4
3.9

41 3
21 5
26.3
3.7
33

41 9

44 1
23 5
28.8
6.1
55

45 5
24 4
29.6
5.1
4 4

44 9
04 o
29.7
5.4
48

44 7
24 3
29.6
3.6.
30

45 9
25 1
30.7
3.6
32

47 2
25 4
31.4
4.2
37

48 3

4Q 9

27.4
5.6
52

42 5
22 5
28.1
6.9
6 4

Net interest
Gro^s national product, totalf _r

I)u able goods, total©
do
Automobiles and parts.
_. _ _ -do_ _.
Furniture and household equipment. _.do
Nondurable goods, total © _ _
do
Clothing and shoes
_ _ d o _ __
Food and alcoholic beverages
..do
Gasoline and oil
.do. _
Services, total©
_ _
do
Household operation
do_ _.
Rousing
do
Transportation.
do
Gross private domestic investment, total
New construction
Residential nonfarm
Producers' durable equipment
Change in business inventories
Nonfarm
.
Net exports of goods and services
Exports
. . .
Imports

1.5

92 1

29 (5
21.6
168 6
31 3
87 3
12 9
156 6
2° 9
49 2
11 7

93 Q

24.2
T 1 7r o

33 2
90 6
13 5
94. n
I9 2
r

r

34.2
2.5

4.4
30 7
26.3

4.2
27 8
23.7

4.3
28 4
24.1

34
28 0
24.6

4 3
29 6
25.3

4 4
29 7
25.3

39
29 4
25.5

K

O1 A

4 2

58

25.4

26.3

26.8

26.9

26.8

Govt. purchases of goods and services, totaL.do
Federal (less Government sales)
do.
National defense 9
do
State and local
do

108.0
57 4
49 o
50 6

116.3
62 9
53 6
53 5

122.6
64 7
55 2
57 9

107.9
57 1
48 6
50 9

112. 6
59 8
50 9
52 8

114.3
61 4
59 5

116.1
63 6
55 3

115. 9
69 4
53 0

118.7
63 8

121.4
65 1

120. 9

122.8

124.8

125.2

59. 9

60. 9

By major type of product:f
Final sales, total
Goods, total
Durable goods
Nondurable goods
Services
Construction

do
do
do
do
do
do

516. 8
257 9
94.5
163. 4
200 8
58 1

550. 3
273 6
102.3
171.3
214 7
62 0

579. 5

518.7
258 8
95.4
163. 4
9
01 8

531. 4
264 8
98.4
166. 5

606. 4

Inventory change, total
Durable goods
Nondurable goods

do
do
do

1.9

9g5 g

108. 2
177.6
998 4
65 2

co 9

9QfJ g
CQ

538. 7

co r

CO

CO

C

4 3

OA

A4 ^

(\A A

C

r 5 7

ol' r

9""} £,

547.3

554. 0

Q

561. 2

568. 2

573. 7

100. 2
168. 7

103. 5
170. 0

104.1
174.1

105. 0
175.8

111.0
175.5

583. 0
285. 7
106. 6
179. 1

A

91 9 9

101.4
172.6

592. 6
290. 3
110.4
179.9

63. 7

66. 2

67.8

114.3
183.9
239. 6
68. 6

6.9

6.1

5.1

5.4

3.6

4.2

:i

2.7

6.4
3. 0
3.4

r

r

27. 9

129. 6
57. 0
62. 5

2. 5
.7
1.8

9('0

91Q

7

4.4
5.9
3.7
5.6
J !
9 ^
3c\
30
2.0 '
29
2.' 9
I!4
2. 0
r
Revised, p Preliminary, f Revised series. Estimates of national income and product
and personal income have been revised back to 1961 (see p. 8 ff. of the July 1964 SURVEY);
revisions prior to May 1963 for personal income appear on p. 15 of the July 1964 SURVEY




Pj9 g

Q

34. 6

9 9

4.0
99 2
25.2

34

87. 2

9A 9

32.4
6.4
6 0

27 6
23.0

90

C7 A
94 1

93 c

_ _ do_
do
do

4.6

396. 1
r

0 Q

3.6 |

2

2.9 '
3.0
2.0
3.6
2.0
eflncludes inventory valuation adjustment.
9 Government sales are not deducted.

614.9
304. 3
119.0
1S5. 4
241.7
68. 9
3.7
1.2

parately.

S-l

SUKVEY OF CURRENT BUSINESS

S-2
Unless otherwise stated, statistics through 1962
and descriptive notes fire shown in the 1963
edition of BUSINESS STATISTICS

1961

1

1961

1962 1 1963

1962
IV

III

Annual total

August l!M'i4

I

II

1963
III

IV

I

II

1964
IV

III

1

II

III

GENERAL BUSINESS INDICATORS—Quarterly Series—Continued
NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT— Con.
Quarterly Data Seasonally Adjusted at Annual Rates
GNP in constant (1954) dollars
G-ross national product totalf
bil. $

447.9

476.4

492. 6

450. 6

462. 5

469. 1

475.1

478. 3

483.0

485.4

487.9

494.8

502. 0

508. 0

Personal consumption expenditures, total.. do

303. 8

318.5

330. 6

305. 1

310. 0

314.2

316. 6

319.8

323. 6

327.0

328.6

332. 4

334. 4

340. 9

345 0 i

do
do
do

41.4
143. 5
118.9

45.7
148.3
124.5

49.3
151. 6
129. 7

41.8
143.9
119.4

43.7
145. 6
120. 8

44.8
146.6
122.7

44.9
147.8
123.8

45. 6
149. 1
125.0

47.6
149.5
126. 5

48. 5
150.7
127.8

48.6
151.1
128.9

49.4
152.5
130.6

50.8
152.1
131.6

53.1
155. 2
132.6

54.0
157. 4
133.7

do

57.4

65.9

67.7

59.4

62.7

64.8

65.8

66.3

66. 5

64.7

66.2

68.1

71.7

70.1

70.8

do
do
do

34.3
21.4
1.7

36.7
24. 0
5.2

37.9
25. 6
4.1

34.6
21.6
3.2

35.2

35.5
23. 2
6.1

36. 6
23.8
5.4

37.5
24.4
4.4

37.0
24.7
4.9

36. 8
24. 6
3.4

37.5
25.4
3.3

38.2
25.9
4.0

39.0
26.8
5.9

39. 6
28.1
2.4

39. 2
28.3
3.3

do

2.5

2.2

2.2

2.0

2.1

1.3

2.8

2.8

2.1

1.3

2.1

2.0

3.5

5.4

3.4

Govt. purchases of goods and services, totaL.do
Federal
do
State and local
do

84.3
44.8
39.4

89.8
49.4
40.3

92.1
49.7
42.4

84.0
44.6
39.4

87.7
47.0
40. 7

88 8
48.4
40.4

89.9
50.2
39.8

89.4
49.2
40.2

90.7
49.9
40.9

92.4
50.7
41.8

91.0
49.4
41.7

92.3
49.6
42.7

92.4
48.9
43.4

91.6
47.8
43.8

94.3
49.8
44.5

417.6
52.9
364.7

442.4
57.9
384. 6

464.1
61. 6
402. 5

420. 6
53.3
367. 3

428. 6
54.4
374. 2

434.7
56. 1
378. 5

441. 0
57.6
383. 4

444. 5
58. 5
386,0

449.7
59.3
390.4

455. 2
60.1
395. 1

460. 2
61.1
399.1

466. 3
61.9
404.4

474. 5
63.3
411.2

480.9
61.4
419. 5

487.9
* 56. 6
'431.3

27.3

27.8

27.5

28.2

29.1

28.0

29.4

27.5

26.4

25.9

27.1

27.0

29.9

29.5

Durable goods
Nondurable goods
Services

-

Gross private domestic investment total
New construction
Producers' durable equipment
Change In business Inventories

-

Net exports of goods and services

DISPOSITION OF PERSONAL INCOMEf
Quarterly Data Seasonally Adjusted at Annual Rates
Personal Income total
bll. $
T/ess1 Personal tax and nontax pavments _ do
Fqiials1 Disposable personal Income
__do
Personal saving §
do
NEW PLANT AND EQUIPMENT
EXPENDITURES
tin ad justed quarterly or annual totals:
All industries
bll. $ .

99 7
^8

r

513 5

r

35. 2

34. 37

37.31

39.22

8.65

9.54

8.02

9.50

9.62

10.18

8.25

9.74

10.14

9.40

111.05

-' 11. 19

Manufacturing
Durable goods Industries
Nondurable goods Industries

do
do
_ do _ _

13.68
6.27
7.40

14.68
7.03
7.65

15.69
7.85
7.84

3.34
1.50
1.84

3.88
1.79
2.09

3.14
1.44
1.69

3.69
1.77
1.92

3.72
1.79
1.93

4.13
2.03
2.10

3.27
1.62
1.65

3.92
1.96
1.95

3.95
1.96
1.99

4.56
2.31
2.25

3.79
1.93
1.87

4.54
2.29
2.26

4.62
2.23
2.39

Mining
Railroads
-Transportation, other than rail
Public utilities
Communications
Commercial and other

do
do_ __
__ . do
do
do
do

.98
.67
1.85
5. 52
3.22
8.46

1.08
.85
2.07
5.48
3.63
9.52

1.04
1.10
1.92
5.65
3.79
10.03

.25
.16
.47
1.50
.78
2.16

.26
. 16
. 50
1.54
.88
2.32

.26
.16
.47
1.06
.88
2.06

.27
.26
.60
1.37
.93
2.37

.28
.24
.50
1.54
.87
2.48

.27
.20
.50
1.52
.95
2.60

.24
.21
.39
1.04
.85
2.26

.26
.28
.54
1.40
.95
2.41

.27
.29
.45
1.60
.93
2.64

.28
.33
.54
1.61
1.06
2.72

.26
.32
.51
1. 18
.97
2.37

.28
.38
.60
1.53

.28
.34
.53
1. 63

Seas. adj. qtrly. totals at annual rates:

--

,-L

33.72

s 3. 79
1

34.70

r> uraLue goo rf~1 , , ., r~.~
hi
dnstrles
'

T? 11 n a- -j-taiiroat.

11.09

do
/\n

rf.t-i

Public utilities

do

BUSINESS POPULATION
Firms In operation, end of quarter (seasonally adjusted)
- thous

35. 70

36.95

38.35

37.95

36. 95

38.05

40.00

41.20

42.55

14.00
6.40
7.60

14.20
6.55
7. 60

14.45
6.95
7.50

15.05
7.25
7.80

15.00
7.30
7.70

14.85
7.35
7.50

15. 30
7.65
7.65

15.95
8.00
8.00

16. 45
8.30
8.15

17.40
8.85
8.55

17. 85
8.95
8.90

18. 60
9.00
9. 5f>

1.00
.65
1.90
5.65
3.20
8.60

do
-,

35.40

13.65
6.10
7.55

1.00
.60
1.95
5.55
3.35
9.00

1.15
.70
2. 05
5.15
3.70
8.75

1.05
.95
2.25
5.40
3.65
9.25

1.10
1.00
2.00
5.75
3.60
9.85

1.00
.80
1.90
5.45
3.60
10.20

1.05
.90
1.70
5.20
3.55
9.65

1.00
1.00
2.05
5.45
3.65
9.65

1.05
1.20
1.85
5.90
3.85
10.20

1.05
1.35
2.10
5.80
4.05
10. 45

1.15
1.40
2.30
5.95
4.05
10. 25

1.05
1.30
2.15
6. 15

1. 10
1.35

i 43. 35 - 44. 30

6.00

3 14. 85 3 15.05

< 4, 713

*4,755

4 4, 797

4, 760

4, 770

4, 780

4,790

4,800

4,815

4.825

4,835

4,850

4,860

4,875

31,791

33, 486

35, 710

8, 005

8,616

8,447

8,151

8, 312

8, 576

8, 603

9, 679

8, 383

9, 045

9,113

do
do
do

14,497
2,954
5, 401

16, 134
3, 044
5, 843

16, 931
2,897
6, 332

3, 826
695
1,346

3, 881
714
1,389

3, 948
758
1,412

4, 058
749
1,462

4,088
745
1 , 465

4. 040
792
1 , 504

4,017
747
1,529

4,197
731
1,578

4, 353
711
1,595

4, 364
708
1,630

4, 347
720
1,613

do
do

705
4,054

738
4,293

826
4, 522

174
1,034

174
1, 206

187
1,074

189
1,065

177
1,066

185
1,088

213
1,041

219
1,333

203
1,009

191
1, 139

202
897

...do
do
..do

4,180
1,599
1, 025
1, 556

3, 434
1,654
1,227
553

4,202
1,862
1,644
696

930
435
259
236

1,252
377
445
430

1 , 068
260
390
418

628
446
303
-121

771
417
208
146

967
531
326
110

1, 056
581
521
-46

1,621
451
598
572

512
236
302
-26

1, 013
594
223
196

1,334
463
226
645

do

30, 419

32, 394

33, 352

7,262

7,717

7, 706

7, 925

8, 408

8, 355

7, 655

8, 337

8, 528

8, 832

9,179

do
do

19,913
8, 525

20, 576
9, 508

21,938
9, 735

4, 987
2, 134

5, 121
2,187

5, 032
2,198

5. 237
2, 397

5, 288
2. 339

5, 019
2, 574

4,984
2, 432

5,459
2.421

5, 597
2, 375

5,898
2,507

6, 087
2,771

Foreign capital other than liquid funds (net). do

1.274
707

1,280
1,030

969
710

99
42

196
213

150
326

237
54

606
175

287
475

166
73

190
267

424
132

189
238

216
105

Excess of recorded receipts or payments (— ) .. .do
Unrecorded transactions (net)
do

-1,372
-998

— 1,092
-1,111

-2,358
-286

— 743
43

-899
-332

-741

—226
-214

96
-430

-221
-460

-948
-124

-1,342
42

145
-277

-213
73

66
-108

Total net receipts or payments ( — )
do__ -2,370 -2,203 -2,644
Net receipts or payments (— ), incl. transactions in
non marketable, medium-term convertible Govt.

-700

-1,231

-748

-440

-334

-681

-1,072

-1,300

-132

-140

-42

-722

-1,148

43

-115

-42 «*-667

4, 895

U.S. BALANCE OF INTERNATIONAL

PAYMENTScft
Quarterly Data are Seasonally Adjusted
Imports:
Merchandise.
Military expenditures
Other services

-

Remittances and pensions
Govt. grants and capital outflows
Direct investments
Tvong-term portfolio
Short-term
\i ^ receipts recorded
Exports:
Merchandise
Services and military sales

-1.942

r

Revised. » Preliminary.
i Estimates for Apr .-June 1964 based on anticipated capital expenditures of business.
2 Estimates for July-Sept. 1964 based on anticipated capital expenditures of business.
Anticipated expenditures for the year 1964 are as follows (in bil. $): All industries, 43.92;
manufacturing, total, 18.25; durable goods industries, 9.05; nondurable goods industries,
9 20; mining, 1 09; railroads, 1.44; transportation, 2.21; public utilities, 6.03; commercial and
other (incl.
»
 communications), 14.90. inIncludes communications.
* Unadiusted Data represent firms
operation as of Jan. 1; estimate for Jan. 1, 1963,
J
http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/'

Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

is

p 4, 550

p 6, 020

ap_789

based on incomplete data. tSee corresponding note on p. S-l (revisions prior to 3d qtr.
19(51 appear on p. 8 ff. of the Ju y 1964 SURVEY).
§Personal saving is excess of disposable income over personal consumption expenditures
shown as a component of gross national product on p. S-l.
d*More complete details are given in the quarterly reviews in the Mar., June, Sept.
and Dec. issues of the SURVEY.
{Revisions for 1960— 2d qtr. 1961 appear on p. 10 of the June 1964 SURVEY.
a
Preliminary revision for 1st qtr. 1964 is —$75 mil.; other revisions will appear in the Sept.
1964 SURVEY.


Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, One Federal Reserve Bank Plaza, St. Louis, MO 63102