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The Office of Economic Policy HOUSING DASHBOARD April 19, 2016 Since last summer, housing starts overall have moved sideways on net, as further increases in single-family starts have about offset a moderation in multifamily starts. However, the flatness in housing starts has yet to show through to residential investment because of the lags associated with housing construction. Residential investment rose at an annual rate of 10 percent in 2015Q4, contributing 0.3 percentage point to GDP growth, and available indicators suggest that residential investment saw another track for another sizable gain in 2016Q1. Meanwhile, residential construction employment has continued to rise steadily. Home price appreciation has moderated—from a double-digit pace in late 2013 and early 2014 to a more sustainable mid-single-digit pace now. This moderation occurs as high home values, in some areas, challenge affordability for potential homebuyers. However, access to credit continues to slowly expand to reach borrowers with lower credit quality. In addition, home price valuations look to be somewhat elevated relative to pre-bubble norms. Although some mortgage borrowers continue to struggle in the wake of the crisis, delinquency and foreclosure rates are closing in on their pre-crisis ranges. The number of distressed sales also continues to drop. This month’s dashboard includes a special topic that explores the degree to which the rebound in home prices since the Great Recession has supported consumer spending and how this “housing wealth effect” depends on the availability of credit and other factors. Housing Market Flash April 2016 Housing Market Flash Tuesday, April 19, 2016 Pre-bubble norm (2000-2002 Current average) Trough level Single-family homes New 921 Sales Existing (thousands) Inventory of homes available for sale (thousands) New Existing 4,779 311 1,836 Housing starts 1,289 Building permits 1,257 CoreLogic HPI 115.7 Construction activity (thousands) Prices (index, Jan 2000 = 100) Inflation-Adjusted 111.6 CoreLogic HPI Housing affordability 127 (NAR, index=100 when median family income qualifies for 80% LTV mortgage on a median priced home) 270 Feb-11 3,060 Jul-10 142 Jul-12 1,550 Dec-15 353 Mar-09 337 Jan-09 512 Feb-16 4,510 Feb-16 240 Feb-16 1,650 Feb-16 764 Mar-16 727 Mar-16 137.3 188.4 Nov-11 Feb-16 101.9 138.1 Nov-11 Feb-16 Current 12-month average versus yearearlier value 9.1% 6.8% 19 thousands -41 thousands 14.5% 9.3% 5.3% 6.3% 101.1 174.9 Jul-06 Feb-16 8 Jan-09 58 Apr-16 point(s) 117 Oct-08 153 Apr-16 point(s) Improved Improved Improved Weakened Improved Improved Improved Improved -2.3% Current level versus prebubble norm (2000-2002 average) -44.4% -5.6% -71 thousands -186 thousands -40.7% -42.2% 62.8% 23.8% 38.2% Weakened Sentiment 59 Homebuilder (NAHB, over 50 means majority view conditions positively) Home-buying conditions 152 (Reuters/Umich, index = good time - bad time + 100) 6 -1 Improved point(s) Weakened point(s) Improved thousands -1 1 Demographics Household formation 1113 (thousands) Homeownership rate (percent) 67.7 100 461 2008-Q4 2015-Q4 290 thousands -653 63.5 63.7 -0.8 -4 2015-Q2 2015-Q4 percentage point(s) Weakened percentage point(s) 1 Special Topic: The Great Recession and the Housing Wealth Effect April 2016 House Prices CoreLogic Index with Distressed Sales (Jan. 2000=100) Home prices have steadily recovered and are approaching the pre-recession peak. Home prices dropped more than 30 percent peak-to-trough during the housing bust. Since reaching the trough in late 2011, home prices have regained roughly 80 percent of the losses incurred during the downturn. 220 Apr-2006, 198.5 200 Jan-2016, 187.2 180 160 140 Nov-2011, 137.3 120 100 80 '00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12 '14 '16 Source: CoreLogic Rising home prices have restored a substantial amount of the housing wealth lost during the Great Recession. The slow but steady rise in home prices has helped households regain $6.1 trillion worth (nearly 90 percent) of the real estate equity lost during the recession. The value of household real estate reached $22 trillion in 2015Q4 up from a low of $16 trillion in 2011Q4. Trillions Household Real Estate and Net Equity 25 Percent Market Value of Real Estate (left scale) Net Equity (left scale) Equity's Share of Value (right scale) 20 65 15 55 10 45 5 35 0 25 '00 Studies have found that increases in home equity generally lead to increases in consumption. The magnitude of this effect has fluctuated over time. In the early 2000s, households spent an estimated $4 to $5 for every $100 increase in a home’s value. More recent studies suggest that the since the Great Recession, the size of this “housing wealth effect” has fallen to roughly $2.1 These estimates imply that the increase in home values since 2012 has supported an additional $117 billion in consumption. 75 '03 '06 '09 '12 '15 Source: Federal Reserve Board Consumption Gains due to Rising Home Values Billions 20 18 $117.3 Billion 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 '12 '13 '14 '15 Source: Treasury Calculations based on Federal Reserve Board data Case, Karl E., John M. Quigley and Robert J. Shiller, “Wealth Effects Revisited 1975-2012” (Cowles Foundation Discussion Paper No. 1884, Yale University, 2013). The authors also suggest that there is a negative wealth effect for declining home prices. They estimate that for every $100 drop in a home’s price, consumption is reduced by $6. 1 2 Special Topic: The Great Recession and the Housing Wealth Effect April 2016 One explanation for the smaller housing wealth effect in recent years is that homeowners are less able or willing to extract equity from their homes to finance increases in consumption. In 2012Q2, the share of homeowners extracting cash when refinancing their mortgages dropped to an alltime low, thanks to low levels of equity, tight credit availability, and credit scores that were damaged during the Great Recession. Since then, the share of “cash-out” refinances has trended up to pre-bubble levels but, anecdotally, lenders report that households are taking less cash out than before. Proportion of Cash-out Dollars from Mortgage Refinance Originations Percent 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 '98 '00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12 '14 Source: Freddie Mac Home Equity Line of Credit Balance and Home Values Other types home equity borrowing have also declined. Notably, the volume of lending through home equity lines of credit has trended down, on balance, since 2009, even as home prices have rebounded in recent years. Tight credit standards are one reason why households have borrowed less against home equity. Billions Index (2000 Q1= 100) $1,000 200 $900 190 $800 180 $700 170 $600 160 $500 150 $400 140 $300 130 $200 120 Home Equity Line of Credit Volume, left scale $100 110 CoreLogic with Distressed Home Price Index, right scale $0 100 '00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12 '14 Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York, CoreLogic Households’ response to housing wealth gains may also be muted because of a more general desire to strengthen their balance sheets. Since peaking in 2007, the ratio of household debt to income has fallen, on balance, partly because new borrowing for mortgages and housing-related debt has been muted. Also, households have voluntarily paid down debt and involuntarily extinguished debt through foreclosures and non-mortgage loan defaults. Household Debt to Income Ratio Percent 140 130 120 110 100 90 '00 '03 '06 Source: Financial Accounts of the United States 3 '09 '12 '15 Housing’s Importance to the Economy Residential investment continues to support GDP growth. Residential investment rose at an annual rate of 10 percent in 2015Q4, adding Percent 10.0 6.0 4.0 matching the average contribution over the 2.0 previous four quarters. Data through March 0.0 track for another sizable gain in 2016Q1. (The recent flatness in housing starts will take some time to be reflected in residential Residential Investment's Contribution to Real GDP 8.0 0.3 percentage point to real GDP growth, suggest that residential investment is on April 2016 -2.0 -4.0 -6.0 GDP (% Change, Annual Rate) Residential Investment's Contribution -8.0 -10.0 '00 investment because of the lags associated '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12 '14 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis with construction.) Employment in residential construction continues to recover. Over the past year, Employment in Residential Construction Millions Percent 4.0 4.0 Number Employed (left scale) it has increased by 13,800 jobs per month, compared with 12,100 jobs per month in the year-earlier period. The level of employment remains relatively low: residential construction employment totaled just under 2.6 million workers in 2016Q1, accounting for roughly 2.1 percent of total private payroll Share of Total Private Employment (right scale) 3.5 3.5 3.0 3.0 2.5 2.5 2.0 2.0 1.5 1.5 2.6 percent in the early 2000s. '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12 '14 '16 Note: Includes those employed directly in residential construction as well as related specialty trades. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics Housing wealth is nearing its earlier Trillions employment, compared with around peak. The value of household real estate reached $22.0 trillion in 2015Q4, up from a low of $16.2 trillion in 2011Q4. The current level is close to its 2006Q4 peak, but the Household Real Estate and Net Equity 25 Percent Market Value of Real Estate (left scale) Net Equity (left scale) Equity's Share of Value (right scale) 75 20 65 15 55 10 45 5 35 sustainable level is higher than in 2006 because of population-driven growth in the housing stock and overall inflation. 0 25 '00 '02 '04 Source: Federal Reserve Board 4 '06 '08 '12 '14 '16 Housing Starts and Inventories April 2016 Since last summer, housing starts have Starts and Permits Millions been about flat, as further increases in 2.0 single-family starts have about offset a Single-Family Starts 1.8 pullback in multifamily starts. Single- Single-Family Permits Multifamily Starts 1.5 family starts (light blue line) fell sharply in March, but, smoothing through the monthly 1.3 volatility, appear to remain on a gradual 1.0 uptrend. Multifamily starts (black line) 0.8 surged in the first half of 2015 but have 0.5 since moderated. 0.3 Multifamily Permits 0.0 '00 '02 '04 Source: U.S. Census Bureau Builder confidence remained generally upbeat in April. The National Association of Homebuilders index has recorded 70 readings above 50 (meaning a majority of 60 builders view the market positively) for the 50 last 22 months. All three of the index’s 40 components—sales expectations over the 30 next six months, current sales, and buyer 20 traffic—are above their 2014 averages. 10 '08 '10 '12 '14 '16 Builder Confidence Index 80 '06 0 '00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12 '14 '16 Source: National Association of Homebuilders The inventory of homes for sale remains of existing homes for sale (dark blue line) was at 1.88 million units at the end of Millions well below historical averages. The stock which was the lowest level since December 3.0 1999. The stock of new homes for sale 2.5 Existing (left scale) 600 500 Series average 400 300 Series average 2.0 200 New (right scale) supply of existing homes available for sale; 1.5 for new homes, the available inventory is 1.0 equivalent to a 5.6-month supply. 700 4.0 3.5 current sales pace, there is 4.4-month Thousands 4.5 February, up from 1.76 million in December, (light blue line) was at 240,000. At the Unsold Homes Millions 100 0 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12 Source: National Association of Realtors and U.S. Census Bureau 5 '14 '16 Underpinnings of Housing Demand Mortgage interest rates remain very low by historical standards. The average interest rate on new 30-year fixed-rate conventional mortgages settled at a threeyear low of 3.58 percent in the week ending April 2016 Interest Rate of 30 Year Fixed-Rate Mortgages Percent 9 8 7 April 14. The current rate is only 27 basis points higher than the lowest rate recorded in 2012. 6 5 4 3 '00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12 '14 '16 Source: Freddie Mac The National Association of Realtors Housing Affordability Index suggests Index that housing remains affordable for the 240 typical family. Affordability has 220 diminished considerably since 2013 as 200 home prices have risen, but has crept up 180 recently due to relatively low mortgage 160 rates. (Note that the index assumes a 20 140 percent down payment; interest rates would 120 be higher and affordability would be lower 100 for a family that made a smaller down Home Affordability Record Affordability Index = 214.5 Historic Average (data since 1971) 80 '00 payment). '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12 '14 '16 Source: National Association of Realtors Attitudes Towards Buying Households remain positive about home Index (Good minus Bad plus 100) buying conditions. The University of 180 Michigan Consumer Survey’s “Good Time to 170 Buy” Index remained slightly higher than the 160 long-term average in mid-April. Low 150 interest rates continue to be the main factor 140 cited when respondents were asked why 130 home-buying conditions are good. 120 Long-Run Average (data since 1986) 110 100 '00 '02 '04 '06 '08 Source: University of Michigan Consumer Survey 6 '10 '12 '14 '16 Underpinnings of Housing Demand Senior loan officers at banks report FRB Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey on Mortgage Lending easing mortgage lending standards in recent quarters. The last seven quarters 100 mark the first period of sustained easing 80 since the period of dramatic tightening 60 during the financial crisis. (Note that the level of the line shown corresponds to the 40 change in lending standards, with values 20 below 0 representing an easing of lending standards and values above 0 representing a tightening). April 2016 Net Percent of Banks Reporting Tightening Standards Tightening 0 -20 Easing -40 90 Despite the easing, lending is still restrained, and riskier borrowers continue to have very limited access to mortgage credit. Mortgage originations have risen, on net, over the past year, but the pick-up has been driven largely by borrowers with credit scores above 780. Originations by borrowers with credits scores below 780 are well below pre-crisis levels. Almost no 98 02 08 10 14 Mortgage Originations by Credit Score Billions of dollars <620 1,000 620-659 660-719 720-779 780+ 800 600 400 200 mortgages are being extended to borrower with FICO scores below 660. 94 0 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 Source: FRBNY Consumer Credit Panel/Equifax Note: Credit Score is Equifax Riskscore 3.0; '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 Credit Score at Mortgage Origination The median FICO score of newly originated mortgages has fallen slightly in recent quarters to around 750, but it is still up from roughly 700 in the early 2000s. At the 10th percentile, the FICO score for new mortgages was down to 642 by the end of 2015, compared with less than 600 in the early 2000s. 800 Score 750 median 700 25th percentile 650 10th percentile 600 550 500 '00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12 Source: FRBNY Consumer Credit Panel/Equifax Note: Credit Score is Equifax Riskscore 3.0; mortgages include first-liens only. 7 '14 Household Formation Household formation fell sharply in 2015Q4. In the year ending in December, just 191,000 households were formed. The April 2016 3.0 2.5 explanation for the decline is unclear. 2.0 Between mid-2006 and 2014Q3, the rate of 1.5 household formation averaged roughly half 1.0 its historical average of 1.2 million per year. Household formation surged at the end of 2014 and remained above its historical average through 2015Q3. Household Formation Millions Historic Average (data since 1956) 0.5 0.0 -0.5 '00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12 '14 '16 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Treasury calculation The proportion of young adults who are working has seen a partial recovery. The employment-to-population ratio for individuals ages 25-34 has reversed more than half of the decline that occurred Employment-to-Population Ratio Ages 25-34 Percent 84 82 80 78 during the recession. The strengthening 76 labor market should support household 74 formation going forward. 72 70 '00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12 '14 '16 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics Growth in Rents vs. Overall Inflation Year-over-year percent change Higher rents are an obstacle to young adults establishing their own households. The supply of rental housing appears to have not risen as fast as demand and, as a result, rents have been increasing rapidly. They outpaced overall inflation by 2.8 percentage points over the year ending in March. 7.5 5.0 CPI-U: Rent of Primary Residence 2.5 0.0 CPI-U: All Items -2.5 '00 Source: BLS 8 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12 '14 '16 Homeownership April 2016 The homeownership rate edged up in 2015Q4. The homeownership rate was 63.7 percent in 2015Q4, up from a low of 63.5 percent in 2015Q2. The Homeownership Rate Percent 70 68 homeownership rate may stagnate in coming quarters as household formation continues to recover because newly formed households are more likely to rent before purchasing a home. 66 64 62 60 '80 '85 '90 '95 '00 '05 '10 '15 Source: U.S. Census Bureau First-time home buyers account for Percent Share of Mortgages Accounted by First-time Buyers 55.0 around half of purchase mortgage originations. The share of newly originated 53.0 mortgages going to first-time buyers was 52.1 percent in March, higher than the 51.4 51.0 percent recorded a year ago. 49.0 47.0 '13 '14 '15 '16 Source: American Enterprise Institute Primary Reasons for Renting among Young Renters who Prefer to Own 87 percent of households headed by young adults that are renting say that they would prefer to own if they could afford it. Of those households, the most Cannot qualify for a mortgage 35 commonly cited reasons for not owning are lack of downpayment (59 percent) and not being able to qualify for a mortgage to buy Cannot afford downpayment 59 a home (35 percent). 0 10 20 30 40 Percent 50 60 70 Source: Report on Economic Well-Being of U.S. Households in 2014, Federal Reserve Board 9 Home Sales New single-family home sales remain on April 2016 a very gradual uptrend. At an annual rate 1600 of 512,000 in February, they were 1400 1.8 percent higher than their average level 1200 in 2015. New single-family home sales averaged 503,000 units for all of 2015, the best annual performance since 2007. Still, the current pace of sales is only about half the level seen prior to the boom in the early 2000s. New-Single Family Home Sales Thousands 1000 800 600 400 200 0 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12 '14 '16 Source: U.S. Census Bureau Sales of existing single-family homes have been volatile in recent months. Existing single-family home sales fell sharply in February. Severe weather in the Northeast and Midwest may have held Millions Existing Single-Family Home Sales 7 6 5 down the number of contract signings that month. They also showed sharp swings last fall because of new mortgage disclosure regulations that reportedly delayed contract signings by a few days. 4 3 2 '00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12 '14 '16 Source: National Association of Realtors Pending Existing Home Sales Index, 2002: Jan = 100 The National Association of Realtors 130 index of pending sales of existing homes 120 rebounded to a seven-month high in 110 February. The index is a leading indicator 100 of existing home sales, which are recorded 90 at the closing of the sale. The National Association of Realtors is projecting that 80 existing home sales will rise 2.4 percent in 70 2016. 60 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12 Source: National Association of Realtors, Treasury Calculation 10 '14 '16 Home Prices April 2016 Changes in Home Prices After rising at a high single-digit to low-double-digit pace in late 2013 and early 2014, the pace of home price 24 12-month percent change 16 8 appreciation has eased. Home prices are now growing at a more sustainable mid- 0 single-digit pace. 20-City Case-Shiller -8 FHFA Purchase-Only CoreLogic -16 -24 Zillow '00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12 '14 '16 Source: Standard and Poors, FHFA, CoreLogic, Zillow Home prices remain below their precrisis peaks. Most measures for the nation as a whole are currently around early 2005 levels. The FHFA Purchase-Only Home Price Index is the only one that has surpassed its pre-recession peak. Forecasters generally believe that home price appreciation will remain moderate going forward. Participants in the 2016Q1 Pulsenomics/ Zillow home price survey expect home prices to rise 3.7 percent over the four Home Prices Index, January 2000 =100 220 20-City Case-Shiller FHFA Purchase-Only CoreLogic Zillow 200 180 160 140 120 100 '00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12 '14 '16 Source: Standard and Poors, FHFA, CoreLogic, Zillow quarters of 2016. Price-to-Rent Ratio Percent 2.0 The ratio of home prices to rents, a 1.8 common way to assess whether home 1.6 prices are overvalued, remains well below 1.4 its pre-crisis peak. That said, the substantial appreciation of home prices 1.2 since late 2012 has pushed up this ratio, and 1.0 it is now above its pre-crisis range. 0.8 '84 '87 '90 '93 '96 '99 '02 '05 '08 '11 Source: Ratio of CoreLogic National Home Price Index to CPI Owner's Equivalent Rent. Both Indexes set to 100 in January 1983. 11 '14 Mortgage Originations April 2016 Mortgage Applications Index, 2000:Jan 7 = 100 3000 Applications for home purchase mortgages have been trending upward 210 Purchase (right scale) 180 2500 over the past year. Even so, purchase 150 2000 applications remain well below pre-crisis Refinance (left scale) levels. Refinancing activity has been very 1500 low since mid-2013 as most borrowers who 1000 120 90 have been able to refinance have already 60 500 done so. 30 0 0 '00 '03 '06 '09 '12 '15 Source: Mortgage Bankers Association New mortgage originations have New Originated Installment Loan Balances increased over the past year but Billions remain low by pre-crisis standards. 250 New mortgage originations rose to $437 billion in 2015Q4, up from a low of $354 billion in 2014Q4. The low level of mortgage originations stands in contrast to the pattern of some other forms of Billions 900 Auto Loan (Left Axis) 200 700 Mortgage (Right Axis) 150 originations, which have been increasing briskly along with sales and now stand near the top of their historical range. 400 300 200 50 100 0 0 '04 '06 since its 2009 high, but remains significantly higher than pre-crisis levels. About 70 percent of new mortgages were backed by the FHA, VA, or GSEs in the first three quarters of 2015 (dark blue and light blue portions of bars). While bank portfolio lending has increased noticeably, the private-label mortgage-backed securities market has experienced essentially no recovery since collapsing in late 2007. '08 '10 '12 '14 Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York Mortgage Originations by Investor The share of new mortgage originations backed by the government has fallen 600 500 100 household credit, including auto loan 800 GSE securitization FHA/VA securitization PLS securitization Portfolio Share, percent 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 2015 Q1-3 Source: Inside Mortgage Finance and Urban Institute 12 Delinquencies, Foreclosures and Distressed Sales April 2016 Foreclosure and Delinquency Rates Mortgage foreclosure and delinquency rates continue to normalize. The share of homes in foreclosure declined to 1.6 percent of outstanding loans in 2015Q4. The rate of mortgages in default (90+ days delinquent or in foreclosure) fell to 3.4 percent in Percent 12 Percent of loans 90 days or more delinquent or in foreclosure 10 8 6 2015Q4, compared with a pre-crisis average 4 of around 2 percent. 2 Percent of loans in foreclosure Percent of loans 90 or more days delinquent 0 '00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12 '14 Source: Mortgage Bankers Association and Haver Analytics Re-Default Rate 24 Months after Modification Re-default rates for borrowers who have received a mortgage modification have 80 Percent Fannie Mae Government-Guaranteed Portfolio Loans run significantly lower for mortgages that were modified more recently. Mortgages Freddie Mac Private Overall 60 that were modified in 2013 (24 months ago) had re-default rates that were between 32 40 and 55 percentage points lower than those modified in 2008. 20 0 '08 '09 '10 Source: OCC Mortgage Metrics Report for Q1-2015 '11 '12 '13 Distressed Sales as a Percent of Total Sales The share of sales represented by REO sales has trended down over the past 3 years. In January 2016, REO sales ticked up Percent 35 REO Sales Share 30 slightly to around 8 percent of total sales. 25 The share associated with short sales 20 remained relatively constant at around 3 15 percent in recent months. Short Sales Share 10 5 0 '06 '07 Source: CoreLogic 13 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 Negative Equity Rising home prices have greatly reduced the number of underwater borrowers. The share of mortgage loans with negative equity was 8.6 percent in 2015Q4, down from 10.3 percent in 2015Q1. The number of homes now underwater stands at 4.3 million, a 64 percent drop since the 2011 peak. Mortgages that are very underwater, with negative equity exceeding 25 percent, have declined and are now 37 percent of all underwater mortgages. April 2016 Share of Loans that are Underwater by Loan-to-Value Ratio Percent 30 100-105 25 105-125 125+ 20 15 10 5 0 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 Source: CoreLogic Equity Report, 2015 Q4 Amount of Negative Equity Billions of dollars 800 The aggregate amount of negative equity continues to fall. Since 2010Q1, 600 aggregate negative equity has fallen from over $800 billion to around $300 billion in 400 2015Q4. 200 0 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 Negative Equity Share in Top 5 States Negative equity rates are still very high in some states. Around 20 percent of mortgaged residential properties in Nevada 20.0 18.7 18.0 17.1 16.0 14.6 14.0 and Florida still have negative equity. 12.0 However, these rates have fallen by more 10.0 than half in these two states since the 8.0 beginning of 2013. 6.0 14.0 13.5 4.0 2.0 0.0 NV 14 FL IL AZ RI State Detail Serious delinquencies have fallen across the country but the degree of improvement varies by state. They remain near peak levels in some states, particularly in judicial foreclosure states such as New Jersey and New York. However, serious delinquencies are down nearly 75 percent April 2016 Serious Delinquencies for 25 Highest-Rate States: Q4 2015 Percent, since Q1 2000 25 Q4 2015 value Minimum since Q1 2000 Maximum since Q1 2000 20 15 10 from their peak in Florida, a judicial state the foreclosure process. Serious delinquencies have also fallen markedly in hard-hit areas with flexible foreclosure laws, 5 0 NJ NY ME FL MS DE RI CT MD NV PA IL OH DC NM IN MA HI LA OK KY AL VT SC that passed a law in June 2013 speeding up Source: Mortgage Bankers Association/Haver such as Nevada. Foreclosure Inventories by State as a Percent of All Mortgage Homes Foreclosure inventories have declined in many states but remain relatively high in others. Judicial foreclosure is an important factor: 12 of 23 states that employ the practice have noticeably elevated rates (darker red). Other states with high inventories, like Nevada, are still struggling economically. Source: CoreLogic Market Pulse, data as of January 2016 15 Information Memo Clearance Sheet Subject: April 2016 Housing Dashboard Drafted: Economic Policy – Marcelo Yoon 622-6423 Erin Troland 622-0181 Approved: Economic Policy – Karen Dynan (4/19/16) Cleared: Exec Sec – Economic Policy – Jane Dokko (4/19/16)
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