View PDF

The full text on this page is automatically extracted from the file linked above and may contain errors and inconsistencies.

The Obama Administration’s Efforts
To Stabilize the Housing Market
and Help American Homeowners
November 2014

U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development | Office of Policy Development and Research

U.S Department of Housing and Urban Development

hcraeseR dna tnempoleveD yc

nempoleveD yciloP fo ecif fO | tnempole
The Administration’s goal remains to stabilize the housing market and provide
security for homeowners. To meet these objectives in a challenging market, the
Administration developed a broad approach implementing state and local housing agency initiatives, tax credits for homebuyers, neighborhood stabilization
and community development programs, mortgage modifications and refinancing,
housing counseling, continued Federal Housing Administration (FHA) engagement,
support for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac and increased consumer protections. In
addition, Federal Reserve and Treasury Mortgage-Backed Securities purchase programs have helped to keep mortgage interest rates at record lows for more than a
year. More detail on the Administration’s efforts can be found in the Appendix.
•	

New home sales inched up again in October. Purchases of new
home sales were up 0.7 percent from a month earlier to a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 458,000 in October and were 15.4 percent
higher than one year ago. New home sales were last at this pace in May
2014. (Source: HUD and Census Bureau.)

•	

Sales of previously owned (existing) homes rose in October to
their highest pace in more than a year. The National Association of
Realtors® (NAR) reported that existing homes—including single-family homes,
townhomes, condominiums, and cooperatives—sold at a pace of 5.26 million (SAAR) in October, up 1.5 percent from September and 2.5 over a year
ago. Existing home sales are at their highest pace since September 2013.

•	

House prices were stable in September, with year-over-year
gains continuing to slow. The Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA)
seasonally adjusted purchase-only house price index for September showed
home values were virtually the same as the previous month but 4.3 percent
higher than one year ago. Year-over-year house price gains were 4.7 percent as of August 2014. The FHFA index shows that U.S. home values are
approximately on par with September 2005 prices and now stand just 5.8
percent below their previous peak in March 2007. Another index tracked in
the Scorecard, the S&P/Case-Shiller 20-City Home Price Index (not seasonally adjusted), posted month-over-month returns for September that were
also virtually the same as the previous month but 4.90 percent higher than
one year ago. According to the Case-Shiller index, annual rates of gain in
home prices have slowed over the last ten months. The Case-Shiller index
shows home values at November-2004 levels and 15.9 percent below their
peak in July 2006. (The Case-Shiller and FHFA price indices are released
with a 2-month lag.)

•

Foreclosure starts and completions rose in October but continued their annual downward trend. Lenders started the public
foreclosure process on 56,452 U.S. properties in October, up 12 percent
from the previous month but down 4 percent from a year earlier. Lenders
completed the foreclosure process (bank repossessions or REOs) on 27,914
U.S. properties in October, up 22 percent from the previous month but still
down 26 percent from one year ago. Foreclosure activity has been increasing in October over the last few years before banks impose a foreclosure
moratorium over the holidays. The increase in foreclosure activity can also
be attributed to the expiration of the Mortgage Forgiveness Debt Relief
Act of 2007 at the end of 2013, which results in a reduced incentive for
consumers to attempt foreclosure alternatives. (Source: RealtyTrac.)

•

The Administration’s foreclosure mitigation programs continue
to provide relief for millions of homeowners as the recovery
from the housing crisis continues. In all, more than 8.9 million mortgage modification and other forms of mortgage assistance arrangements
were completed between April 2009 and the end of October 2014. More
than 2.2 million homeowner assistance actions have taken place through
the Making Home Affordable Program, including more than 1.4 million permanent modifications through the Home Affordable Modification Program
(HAMP), while the Federal Housing Administration (FHA) has offered more
than 2.5 million loss mitigation and early delinquency interventions through
October. These Administration programs continue to encourage improved
standards and processes in the industry, with lenders offering families and
individuals over 4.2 million proprietary modifications through September
(data are reported with a 2-month lag). You can read the Treasury’s MHA
report here.

Encouraging news notwithstanding, there is a need to continue with recovery
efforts to foster home sales, help homeowners that are underwater, and reduce
mortgage delinquency rates that remain elevated. There is also considerable
geographic variation in market conditions not captured in the national statistics,
which suggests some markets are improving at different rates than others. Given
the current state of the market and recognizing that recovery will take place over
time, the Administration remains committed to its efforts to prevent avoidable
foreclosures and stabilize the housing market.

November 2014 National Scorecard | Page 1

U.S Department of Housing and Urban Development

The Obama Administration’s Efforts To Stabilize the Housing Market and Help American Homeowners | November 2014

November 2014 National Scorecard | Page 2

U.S Department of Housing and Urban Development

The Obama Administration’s Efforts To Stabilize the Housing Market and Help American Homeowners | November 2014

November 2014 National Scorecard | Page 3

U.S Department of Housing and Urban Development

The Obama Administration’s Efforts To Stabilize the Housing Market and Help American Homeowners | November 2014

November 2014 National Scorecard | Page 4

U.S Department of Housing and Urban Development

U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Housing Market and Policy Development and Research
The Obama Administration’s Efforts To Stabilize theDevelopment | Office of Help American Homeowners | November 2014

Indicator

HOUSING ASSISTANCE AND STABILIZATION PERFORMANCE METRICS
This Period
Last Period
Cumulative From April 1, 2009
Latest Release

Distressed Homeowners Assisted (thousands)
HAMP Trial Modifications
HAMP Permanent Modifications
FHA Loss Mitigation Interventions
HOPE Now Modifications
HARP Refinances
Counseled Borrowers (thousands)

10.3 (s)
10.0 (s)
43.7
24.5
14.4

11.7
9.6
32.6
29.8
14.1

2,257
1,427
2,530
4,246
3,233

(r)

October-14
October-14
October-14
September-14
September-14

385.2

284.3

10,939

2nd Q 14

Borrower Annual Savings ($ millions)
HAMP Active Trial Modifications
HAMP Active Permanent Modifications
All Refinances

----

----

179
6,209
59,871

2nd Q 14
2nd Q 14
2nd Q 14

Activities Completed Under NSP (housing units)	
New Construction or Residential Rehab
Demolition or Clearance
Direct Homeownership Assistance

----

----

38,958 [63,231]
22,911 [24,343]
11,167 [16,942]

177.3

451.6

Change in Aggregate Home Equity ($ billions)

Indicator

Mortgage Rates (30-Yr FRM, percent)

4,699.8

(r)

HOUSING MARKET FACT SHEET
This Period

Last Period

3.89

Year Ago

3.97

(b,s)
(b,s)
(b,s)

4.46

3rd Q 14
3rd Q 14
3rd Q 14
2nd Q 14

As of Dec 2008

5.10

Latest Release
4-Dec14

Housing Affordability (index)

165.9

158.7

(r)

167.4

162.9

September-14

Home Prices (indices)
Case-Shiller (NSA)
FHFA (SA)
CoreLogic–Excluding Distressed Sales (NSA)

173.7
214.0
175.5

173.8
213.9
174.4

(r)
(r)

165.6
205.3
166.2

150.5
196.2
159.9

September-14
September-14
October-14

Home Sales (thousands, SA)
New
Existing
First-Time Buyers
Distressed Sales (percent, NSA)

38.2
438.3
157.2
13

37.9
431.7
155.0
13

(r)
(r)
(s)
(r)

37.5
427.5
176.7 (s)
17

31.4
334.2
149.9
32

October-14
October-14
October-14
September-14

Housing Supply
Existing Homes for Sale (thousands, NSA)
Existing Homes–Months’ Supply (months)
New Homes for Sale (thousands, SA)
New Homes for Sale–Months’ Supply (months, SA)
Vacant Units Held Off Market (thousands)

2,220
5.3
212
5.6
3,902

2,280
5.3
210
5.5
3,975

(r)

2,110
4.9
184
4.9
3,674

3,130
9.4
353
11.2
3,542

October-14
October-14
October-14
October-14
3rd Q 14

Mortgage Originations (thousands)
Refinance Originations
Purchase Originations

563.7
783.2

578.4
757.8

(r)
(r)

1,017.6
891.6

767.1
986.3

3rd Q 14
3rd Q 14

15.4
53.5
38.8

(r)
(r)
(r)

18.7
52.6
42.2

62.9
72.7
56.2

October-14
October-14
October-14

3.2
31.0
11.1

4.4
34.3
14.3

October-14
October-14
October-14
October-14
October-14
October-14

(s)
(p)

(r)

(r)
(r)

FHA Originations (thousands)
Refinance Originations
Purchase Originations
Purchases by First-Time Buyers

20.7
55.9
45.0

Mortgage Delinquency Rates (percent)
Prime
Subprime
FHA

2.7
29.4
9.9

2.8
30.1
10.2

558
919
540

569
930
544

(r)
(r)

791
1,145
629

915
1,632
333

5,309

6,255

(r)

7,229

--

56.5
27.9
15.5
30.2

50.4
22.9
17.2
33.7

(r)
(r)

58.9
37.8
24.0
40.2

148.6
78.9
14.0
74.8

Seriously Delinquent Mortgages (thousands)
Prime
Subprime
FHA
Underwater Borrowers (thousands)
Foreclosure Actions (thousands)
Foreclosure Starts
Foreclosure Completions
Short Sales
REO Sales

(p)
(p)
(p)

(p)
(p)

2nd Q 14
October-14
October-14
September-14
September-14

SA = seasonally adjusted, NSA = not SA, p = preliminary, r = revised, b = brackets include units in process, s = see Additional Notes in Sources and Methodology.
November 2014 National Scorecard | Page 5

U.S Department of Housing and Urban Development

U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Housing Market and Policy Development and Research
The Obama Administration’s Efforts To Stabilize theDevelopment | Office of Help American Homeowners | November 2014

A. Items in Tables

Description
Distressed Homeowners Assisted
HAMP Trial Modifications
HAMP Permanent Modifications
HARP Refinances
FHA Loss Mitigation Interventions
HOPE Now Modifications
Counseled Borrowers (thousands)
Borrower Annual Savings
HAMP Active Trial Modifications

SOURCES AND METHODOLOGY
Frequency

Sources

Notes on Methodology

Monthly
Monthly
Monthly
Monthly
Monthly

Treasury
Treasury
Federal Housing Finance Agency
HUD
Hope Now Alliance

As reported. Also see additional note in Section C below on HAMP Tier 2.
As reported. Also see additional note in Section C below on HAMP Tier 2.
As reported.
All FHA loss mitigation and early delinquency interventions.
All proprietary modifications completed.

Quarterly

HUD

Housing counseling activity reported by all HUD-approved housing counselors.
HUD estimate of annualized savings based on Treasury reported active HAMP trial modifications and
Freddie Mac monthly savings estimates. Also see additional note in Section C below on HAMP Tier 2.
HUD estimate of annualized savings based on Treasury reported active HAMP permanent modifications
and median monthly savings estimates. Also see additional note in Section C below on HAMP Tier 2.
Refinance originations (see below) multiplied by HUD estimate of annualized savings per
refinance.

Quarterly

HUD, Treasury, and Freddie Mac

HAMP Active Permanent Modifications

Quarterly

HUD and Treasury

All Refinances

Quarterly

HUD, and MBA

Quarterly

HUD

Quarterly

HUD

Quarterly

HUD

Quarterly

Federal Reserve Board

Mortgage Rates (30-Yr FRM)

Weekly

Freddie Mac

Primary Mortgage Market Survey, as reported for 30-Year fixed rate mortgages (FRM).

Housing Affordability

Monthly

National Association of Realtors®

NAR’s composite housing affordability index as reported. A value of 100 means that a family
with the median income has exactly enough income to qualify for a mortgage on a median-priced
home. An index above 100 signifies that a family earning the median income has more than
enough income to qualify.

Home Prices
Case-Shiller (NSA)

Monthly

Standard and Poor’s

Monthly
Monthly

Federal Housing Finance Agency
CoreLogic

Case-Shiller 20-metro composite index, January 2000 = 100. Standard and Poor’s recommends
use of not seasonally adjusted index when making monthly comparisons. FHFA monthly (purchaseonly) index for US, January 1991 = 100. CoreLogic national combined index, distressed sales
excluded, January 2000 = 100.
(Only available as NSA).

Monthly

HUD and Census Bureau

Existing

Monthly

National Association of Realtors®

First Time Buyers

Monthly

NAR, Census Bureau, and HUD

Distressed Sales (NSA)

Monthly

CoreLogic

Housing Supply
Existing Homes for Sale (NSA)
Existing Homes - Months’ Supply
New Homes for Sale (SA)
New Homes for Sale - Months’ Supply (SA)
Vacant Units Held Off Market

Monthly
Monthly
Monthly
Monthly
Quarterly

National Association of Realtors
National Association of Realtors
HUD and Census Bureau
HUD and Census Bureau
Census Bureau

As reported.
As reported.
As reported.
As reported.
As reported in Census CPS/HPS Table 4. Estimates of Housing Inventory, line item “Year-round vacant, held off market for reasons other than occasional use or usually reside elsewhere.” Vacant
units can be held off the market for a variety of reasons.

Mortgage Originations
Refinance Originations

Quarterly

Purchase Originations

Quarterly

Mortgage Bankers Association
and HUD
Mortgage Bankers Association
and HUD

HUD estimate of refinance originations based on MBA estimate of dollar volume of refinance
originations.
HUD estimate of home purchase originations based on MBA estimate of dollar volume of home
purchase originations.

Completed Activities Under NSP
(housing units)
New Construction or Residential Rehab
Demolition or Clearance
Direct Homeownership Assistance
Change in Aggregate Home Equity

FHFA (SA)
CoreLogic - Excluding Distressed Sales
(NSA)
Home Sales (SA)
New

Housing units constructed/rehabilitated using Neighborhood Stabilization Program. Bracketed
numbers include units in process.
Housing units demolished/cleared using Neighborhood Stabilization Program. Bracketed
numbers as above.
Completed downpayment assistance or non-amortizing second mortgages by grantee to make
purchase of NSP unit affordable. Bracketed numbers as above.
Difference in aggregate household owners’ equity in real estate as reported in the Federal Reserve
Board’s Flow of Funds Accounts of the United States for stated time period.

Seasonally adjusted annual rates divided by 12. A newly constructed house is considered sold
when either a sales contract has been signed or a deposit accepted, even if this occurs before
construction has actually started.
Seasonally adjusted annual rates divided by 12. Existing-home sales, which include single-family,
townhomes, condominiums and co-ops, are based on transaction closings. This differs from the
U.S. Census Bureau’s series on new single-family home sales, which are based on contracts or the
acceptance of a deposit.
Sum of seasonally adjusted new and existing home sales (above) multiplied by National
Association of Realtors ® annual estimate of first time buyer share of existing home sales.
Short sales and REO (Real Estate Owned) sales as a percent of total existing home sales (current
month subject to revision).

FHA Originations
Refinance Originations
Purchase Originations
Purchases by First Time Buyers
Mortgage Delinquency Rates (NSA)
Prime
Subprime
FHA

Monthly
Monthly
Monthly

HUD
HUD
HUD

FHA originations reported as of date of loan closing. Estimate for current month scaled upward due
to normal reporting lag and shown as preliminary.

Monthly
Monthly
Monthly

LPS Applied Analytics
LPS Applied Analytics
HUD

Total mortgages past due (30+ days) but not in foreclosure, divided by mortgages actively serviced.
Total mortgages past due (30+ days) but not in foreclosure, divided by mortgages actively serviced.
Total FHA mortgages past due (30+ days) but not in foreclosure, divided by FHA’s insurance in force.

Seriously Delinquent Mortgages
Prime
Subprime
FHA

Monthly
Monthly
Monthly

LPS Applied Analytics, MBA, and HUD Mortgages 90+ days delinquent or in foreclosure, scaled up to market.
LPS Applied Analytics, MBA, and HUD Mortgages 90+ days delinquent or in foreclosure, scaled up to market.
HUD
Mortgages 90+ days delinquent or in foreclosure.

Underwater Borrowers

Quarterly

CoreLogic

As reported.

Foreclosure Actions
Foreclosure Starts

Monthly

Realty Trac

Monthly
Monthly
Monthly

Realty Trac
CoreLogic
CoreLogic

Foreclosure starts are reported counts of notice of default or scheduled foreclosure auction,
depending on which action starts the foreclosure process in a state.
Real Estate Owned (REO).
Count of Short Sales for the month as reported (current month subject to revision).
Count of REO (Real Estate Owned) Sales for the month as reported
(current month subject to revision).

Foreclosure Completions
Short sales
REO Sales

November 2014 National Scorecard | Page 6

U.S Department of Housing and Urban Development

U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Housing Market and Policy Development and Research
The Obama Administration’s Efforts To Stabilize theDevelopment | Office of Help American Homeowners | November 2014

SOURCES AND METHODOLOGY
B. Notes on Charts.
1. Monthly house price trends shown as changes in respective house price indices applied to a common base price set equal to the median price of an existing
home sold in January 2003 as reported by the National Association of Realtors. Indices shown: S&P/Case Shiller 20-metro composite index (NSA), January
2000 = 100, FHFA monthly (purchase-only) index for US (SA), January 1991 = 100, and CoreLogic-Distressed Sales Excluded (Monthly) for US (NSA),
January 2000 =100.
2. S&P/Case-Shiller 10-metro composite index (NSA) as reported monthly. Implied Case-Shiller futures index figures report forward expectations for the level
of the S&P/Case Shiller index as of the date indicated, estimated from prices of futures purchased on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange reported by CME
Group. The January 2009 market trend projection reports forward expectations estimated from prices of futures contracts reported by Radar Logic. Also see
additional note in Section C below.
3. Reported seasonally adjusted annual rates for new and existing home sales divided by 12.
4. HUD estimate of refinance originations based on MBA estimate of dollar volume of refinance originations.
5. Cumulative HAMP permanent modifications started, FHA loss mitigation and early delinquency interventions, plus proprietary modifications completed as
reported by HOPE Now Alliance. Some homeowners may be counted in more than one category. Foreclosure completions are properties entering Real
Estate Owned (REO) as reported by Realty Trac. Also see additional note in Section C below on HAMP Tier 2.
6. Beginning with the September 2012 release, filings of a notice of default or scheduled foreclosure auction, depending on which action starts the foreclosure process
in a state, are reported for foreclosure starts. Foreclosure defaults previously had been reported as a proxy for foreclosure starts. Foreclosure completions are
properties entering REO. Both as reported by Realty Trac.
7. See “Borrower Annual Savings” above.
8. FHA market shares as FHA purchase and refinance originations divided by HUD estimates of purchase and refinance mortgage originations as noted in
“Mortgage Originations” above. See additional note below on FHA market share.

C. Additional Notes.
Beginning with the February 2013 release, the House Price Expectations Chart was updated by replacing market expectations as they existed in January
2009 with expectations as of December 2011. Prices of futures purchased for the S&P/Case-Shiller 10-metro composite index, available on the web
from CME Group, were used to estimate expectations for December 2011 and for the current month. Market trend as of January 2009 is estimated from
percentage changes in house price futures based on a different house price index: RadarLogic RPX. This trend has been added back to the chart because it
imparts important information on how house price expectations have changed over time.
Beginning with the January 2013 release, mortgage aid under HAMP Tier 2 is included in the totals. Effective June 2012, HAMP Tier 2 expanded eligibility
requirements to further reduce foreclosures and help stabilize neighborhoods. For non-GSE loans, eligibility was expanded to allow for more flexible debt-toincome criteria and to include properties currently occupied by a tenant, as well as vacant properties which a borrower intends to rent.
FHA market share estimates are based on new methodology beginning with the October 2013 report; estimates were revised back through Q1 2013. See
the FHA Market Share report on their website for an explanation of the new methodology: http://portal.hud.gov/hudportal/HUD?src=/program_offices/
housing/rmra/oe/rpts/fhamktsh/fhamktqtrly.
The Q3 2014 NSP projection count was revised for the direct homeownership assistance category.
The estimate for first-time buyers was revised downward from 38 percent to 33 percent based on the NAR Profile of Home Buyers and Sellers 2014.

November 2014 National Scorecard | Page 7

U.S Department of Housing and Urban Development

U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Housing Market and Policy Development and Research
The Obama Administration’s Efforts To Stabilize theDevelopment | Office of Help American Homeowners | November 2014

Appendix
The Administration has taken a broad set of actions to stabilize the housing market and help
American homeowners. Three years ago, stress in the financial system had severely reduced
the supply of mortgage credit, limiting the ability of Americans to buy homes or refinance
mortgages. Millions of responsible families who had made their monthly payments and had
fulfilled their obligations saw their property values fall. They also found themselves unable to
refinance at lower mortgage rates.
In February 2009, less than one month after taking office, President Obama announced the
Homeowner Affordability and Stability Plan. As part of this plan and through other housing
initiatives, the Administration has taken the following actions to strengthen the housing market:
•	 Supported Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to ensure continued access to affordable
mortgage credit;
•	 The Federal Reserve and the U.S. Treasury purchased more than $1.4 trillion in agency
mortgage backed securities through independent MBS purchase programs, helping to
keep mortgage rates at historic lows;
•	 Launched a modification initiative to help homeowners reduce mortgage payments to
affordable levels and to prevent avoidable foreclosures;
•	 Launched a $23.5 billion Housing Finance Agencies Initiative to increase sustainable
homeownership and rental resources;
•	 Supported the First Time Homebuyer Tax Credit, which helped more than 2.5 million
American families purchase homes;
•	 Provided more than $5 billion in support for affordable rental housing through low
income housing tax credit programs and $6.92 billion in support for the Neighborhood
Stabilization Program to restore neighborhoods hardest hit by the concentrated
foreclosures;
•	 Created the $7.6 billion HFA Hardest Hit Fund for innovative foreclosure prevention
programs in the nation’s hardest hit housing markets;
•	 Launched the $1 billion Emergency Homeowners Loan Program, as part of the DoddFrank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act, to help unemployed and
underemployed homeowners pay a portion of their monthly mortgage.
•	 Created an FHA Short Refinance Option that helps underwater borrowers refinance into
a new, stable, FHA-insured mortgage that is more aligned with actual property values.
•	 Supported home purchase and refinance activity through the FHA to provide access to
affordable mortgage capital and help homeowners prevent foreclosures.
•	 Implemented a series of changes to the Home Affordable Refinance Program (HARP) in
an effort to attract more eligible borrowers who can benefit from refinancing their home
mortgages during this time of historically low mortgage rates.
###

November 2014 National Scorecard | Page 8


Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, One Federal Reserve Bank Plaza, St. Louis, MO 63102