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The Obama Administration’s Eﬀorts To Stabilize The Housing Market and Help American Homeowners June 2012 U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Urban Development | U.S. Department of the and Research U.S Department of Housing and Development | Office of Policy Development Treasury The Administration’s goal is to stabilize the housing market and provide security for homeowners. To meet these objectives in the context of a very challenging market, the Administration developed a broad approach implementing state and local housing agency initiatives, tax credits for homebuyers, neighborhood stabilization and community development programs, mortgage modiﬁcations and reﬁnancing, housing counseling, continued Federal Housing Administration (FHA) engagement, support for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac and increased consumer protections. In addition, Federal Reserve and Treasury Mortgage-Backed Securities purchase programs have helped to keep mortgage interest rates at record lows over the past year. More detail on the Administration’s efforts can be found in the Appendix. June 2012 Scorecard on Administration’s Comprehensive Housing Initiative The President’s housing market recovery efforts began immediately after taking ofﬁce in February 2009. The June 2012 housing scorecard includes the following key indicators of market health and results of the Administration’s comprehensive response, as outlined above: • Market data show important progress in homeowner equity and home sales, but continued fragility overall. Home equity rose $457.1 billion in the ﬁrst quarter of 2012, a 7.4 percent increase from the previous quarter and its highest level since the second quarter of 2010. Sales of previously owned homes posted sharp gains in May of 9.6 percent compared with a year ago and new home sales in May recorded their highest level in more than 2 years. However, foreclosure starts and completions turned up in May, underscoring continued fragility in the housing market. Finally, inventories of homes for sale are at their lowest levels in years; at the current sales pace, it would take 4.7 months to sell the current months’ supply of new homes for sale – the lowest rate since October 2005. Experts consider a six months’ supply of homes for sale to be a balanced market. • The Administration’s recovery efforts continue to help millions of families deal with the worst economic crisis since the Great Depression. More than 5.3 million modiﬁcation arrangements were started between April 2009 and the end of May 2012 – including nearly 1.2 million homeowner assistance actions through the Making Home Affordable Program and more than 1.3 million FHA loss mitigation and early delinquency interventions. The Administration’s programs continue to encourage improved standards and processes in the industry, with HOPE Now lenders offering families and individuals more than 2.9 million proprietary mortgage modiﬁcations through April. • Homeowners entering HAMP demonstrate a high likelihood of long-term success in the program. As of May, more than one million homeowners have received a permanent HAMP modiﬁcation, saving approximately $536 on their mortgage payments each month, and an estimated $13.3 billion to date. Eighty-six percent of homeowners entering the program in the last 23 months have received a permanent modiﬁcation, with an average trial period of 3.5 months. More than 83,000 homeowners have had their principal reduced as part of their HAMP permanent modiﬁcation, and nearly 84,000 second lien modiﬁcations have been completed through the Second Lien Modiﬁcation Program (2MP). The May Monthly Report can be found at: http://www.treasury.gov/initiatives/ﬁnancial-stability/ results/MHA-Reports/Pages/default.aspx Given the current fragility and recognizing that recovery will take place over time, the Administration remains committed to its efforts to prevent avoidable foreclosures and stabilize the housing market. June 2012 National Scorecard | Page 1 U.S Department of Housing and Urban Development U.S. Department of the Treasury U.S Department of Housing and Urban Development U.S. Department of the Treasury The Obama Administration’s Eﬀorts To Stabilize The Housing Market and Help American Homeowners | June 2012 Expectations On House Prices Remain Above 2009 Projections House Prices Are Stabilizing Distressed Sales Remain Key In This Fragile Recovery :5 (6 ##'2 &,( ' ,),'( %/ 7 % A??? I @??8 &%)#0 &,( ' '%( 0 %/ 7< &,(%(8 AFD AAD :5 (6 ##' A?? &'& 7 /#, % ()'(( #(8 AD? &,( ' ,),'( ,% A?@A @FD AAD :5 (6 ##' %/ @D? A?? @AD @FD &,( ' ,),'( %,'0 A??H @?? @D? FD A??B A??C Existing And New Home Sales @2A?? A??G A??H A?@? A?@@ A?@A / (*% &$( - ## &' # 7 % & ' &8 % &)# %) &,( % % )( 7' &,%8 '") 7 ## &%(8 @A? . &$ #( 7' ) / (8 @?? G?? G? E?? E? A?? A??F Existing Homes On The Market At Low Level, Number Of Units Held Oﬀ The Market Remains High &%)#0 #( 7&,(%(8 C?? A??E &,'(3 )%' % &&'9( % ' & &) A2 &,'( % )&&#&04 &,'(3 )%' : &&'9(2 '# &,( % %% %02 &' & 2 % 4 &) @2 &,'( % )&&#&04 @2??? A??D D C / (*% &$( &% '") C? / (*% &$ #( 7# / (8 A? ? ? (&%##0 !,() &,'(3 *&%# ((& *&% & #)&'(®2 %(,( ,',2 % 4 &) B2 &,'( % )&&#&04 B A &,'(3 *&%# ((& *&% & #)&'(® % %(,( ,',4 * June 2012 National Scorecard | Page 2 % )( # & '") A?@B The Obama Administration’s Eﬀorts To Stabilize The Housing Market and Help American Homeowners | June 2012 Mortgage Rates At Record Lows, Homes Remain Highly Aﬀordable 14.9 Million Homeowners Have Reﬁnanced Since April 1, 2009 Percentage Rates And Index Values 9 Quarterly Reﬁnance Mortgage Origina:ons (Millions) 240 220 8 200 7 180 6 5 4 160 6 140 5 120 4 100 3 2 1 80 3 0 30-‐Yr Fixed Mortgage Rate NAR Home Aﬀordability Index (right axis) Sources: Mortgage Bankers Associa:on and HUD. See Note 4, Sources and Methodology. Sources: Freddie Mac and Na:onal Asssocia:on of Realtors Mortgage Aid Helps Foreclosures Trend Downward, But Completions Turn Up in May Mortgage Aid Extended More an 5 Million Times, Outpacing Foreclosures 6 5 Cumula:ve Mortgages Receiving Aid And Mortgages Foreclosed Since April 1, 2009 (Millions) Monthly Foreclosure Ac:ons (Thousands) Mortgages modiﬁed or receiving loss mi:ga:on since April 1, 2009: 5.3 Million 160 120 4 Cumula:ve foreclosure comple:ons since April 2009: 2.8 million (Includes investor, second home, and jumbo proper:es) Foreclosure Starts 3 2 1 80 0 Foreclosure Comple:ons FHA Loss Mi:ga:on HAMP Modiﬁca:ons Hope Now Modiﬁca:ons 40 Foreclosure Comple:ons Sources: HUD, Dept. of Treasury, Hope Now Alliance, and Realty Trac. This Chart has been revised (star:ng this month) to exclude trial modiﬁcai:ons not made permanent. See Note 5, Sources and Methodology. Source: Realty Trac. See Note 6, Sources and Methodology. June 2012 National Scorecard | Page 3 U.S Department of Housing and Urban Development U.S. Department of the Treasury U.S Department of Housing and Urban Development U.S. Department of the Treasury U.S Department of Housing and Urban Development U.S. Department of the Treasury U.S Department of Housing and Urban Development U.S. Department of the Treasury The Obama Administration’s Eﬀorts To Stabilize The Housing Market and Help American Homeowners | June 2012 Homeowners Save From Reduced Mortgage Payments Home Equity Shows Sharp Gain in First Quarter 2012 Annualized Savings From Payment Reduc@ons ($ Billions) Owners’ Equity In Household Real Estate At End Of Period ($ Trillions) 35 30 14 25 12 20 10 15 8 10 6 5 4 0 2 2009 Q4 2010 Q1 2010 Q2 2010 Q3 2010 Q4 All Reﬁnances 0 2011 Q1 2011 Q2 2011 Q3 2011 Q4 HAMP Modiﬁca@ons and Trials Aggregate annual reduc@on in mortgage payments on reﬁnances since April 1, 2009 plus ac@ve trial and permanent HAMP modiﬁca@ons. Sources: MBA, Treasury, Freddie Mac, and HUD. See Note 7, Sources and Methodology. Source: Federal Reserve Board. FHA Supports Mortgage Lending During Crisis Housing Counselors Serve Millions Of Families FHA As Share Of Quarterly Mortgage Origina@ons By Type (Percent) Cumula@ve Households Counseled Since April 1, 2009 (Millions) Households counseled since April 1, 2009: 7.6 million 45 8 40 35 7 30 25 6 20 5 15 4 10 5 3 0 2 1 Purchase Sources: MBA and HUD. See Note 8, Sources and Methodology. Reﬁnance Combined 0 Source: HUD. June 2012 National Scorecard | Page 4 2012 Q1 U.S Department of Housing and Urban Development U.S. Department of the Treasury U.S. Department Eﬀorts To Stabilize Development Office and Help American Homeowners The Obama Administration’s of Housing and Urban The Housing| Marketof Policy Development and Research | June 2012 Indicator HOUSING ASSISTANCE AND STABILIZATION PERFORMANCE METRICS This Period Last Period Cumulative From April 1, 2009 Distressed Homeowners Assisted (thousands) HAMP Trial Modiﬁcations HAMP Permanent Modiﬁcations FHA Loss Mitigation Interventions HOPE Now Modiﬁcations HARP Reﬁnances Latest Release 18.3 17.6 32.7 43.0 79.5 19.4 15.2 30.5 46.6 44.5 1,867 1,026 1,368 2,930 1,202 May-12 May-12 May-12 April-12 March-12 420.4 411.2 7,550 1st Q 12 Borrower Annual Savings ($ millions) HAMP Active Trial Modiﬁcations HAMP Active Permanent Modiﬁcations All Reﬁnances ---- ---- 337 5,102 27,705 1st Q 12 1st Q 12 1st Q 12 Activities Completed Under NSP (housing units) New Construction or Residential Rehab Demolition or Clearance Direct Homeownership Assistance ---- ---- 11,719 [54,588] 22,975 [26,097] 9,050 [18,460] 457.1 –132.7 Counseled Borrowers (thousands) Change in Aggregate Home Equity ($ billions) Indicator Mortgage Rates (30-Yr FRM, percent) 451.9 (r) HOUSING MARKET FACT SHEET This Period Last Period 3.66 Year Ago 3.66 (b) (b) (b) 4.51 1st Q 12 As of Dec 2008 Latest Release 5.10 184.4 1st Q 12 1st Q 12 1st Q 12 28-Jun-12 162.9 April-12 Housing Affordability (index) 186.1 202.4 (r) Home Prices (indices) Case Shiller (NSA) FHFA (SA) CoreLogic - Excluding Distressed Sales (NSA) 135.8 186.8 149.2 134.1 185.2 145.5 (r) (r) 138.4 181.3 146.4 150.5 196.9 161.5 Home Sales (thousands, SA) New Existing First Time Buyers Distressed Sales (percent, NSA) 30.8 379.2 151.7 25 28.6 385.0 153.0 28 (r) 25.7 345.8 137.5 31 31.4 334.2 149.9 32 May-12 May-12 May-12 April-12 Housing Supply Existing Homes for Sale (thousands, NSA) Existing Homes - Months’ Supply (months) New Homes for Sale (thousands, SA) New Homes for Sale - Months’ Supply (months, SA) Vacant Units Held Off Market (thousands) 2,490 6.6 145 4.7 4,053 2,500 6.5 144 5.0 3,606 3,130 9.1 169 6.6 3,889 3,130 9.4 353 11.2 3,542 May-12 May-12 May-12 May-12 1st Q 12 1,219.4 462.5 1,253.6 410.3 918.1 517.8 767.2 986.4 1st Q 12 1st Q 12 21.9 73.0 56.1 62.9 72.7 56.2 May-12 May-12 May-12 Mortgage Originations (thousands) Reﬁnance Originations Purchase Originations (p) (p) (r) (r) (r) (r) (r) (r) April-12 April-12 April-12 FHA Originations (thousands) Reﬁnance Originations Purchase Originations Purchases by First Time Buyers 41.1 76.6 58.3 Mortgage Delinquency Rates (percent) Prime Subprime FHA 3.9 28.8 11.8 3.9 28.9 11.6 4.3 32.4 11.3 4.4 34.3 14.3 May-12 May-12 May-12 1,381 1,599 713 1,395 1,609 707 1,507 1,698 579 915 1,632 333 May-12 May-12 May-12 11,119 10,723 11,089 -- 66.3 84.9 54.8 23.9 38.9 59.9 77.5 51.4 28.2 54.3 58.8 89.3 66.9 25.1 69.6 121.5 103.0 78.9 13.9 74.5 Seriously Delinquent Mortgages (thousands) Prime Subprime FHA Underwater Borrowers (thousands) Foreclosure Actions (thousands) Notice of Default (Foreclosure Starts) Notice of Foreclosure Sale Foreclosure Completions Short Sales REO Sales (p) (p) (p) (p) (p) 45.1 65.7 45.5 (r) (r) (r) (r) (r) SA = seasonally adjusted, NSA = not SA, p = preliminary, r = revised, b = brackets include units in process. June 2012 National Scorecard | Page 5 4th Q 10 (r) May-12 May-12 May-12 April-12 April-12 U.S Department of Housing and Urban Development U.S. Department of the Treasury U.S. Department Eﬀorts To Stabilize Development Office and Help American Homeowners The Obama Administration’s of Housing and Urban The Housing| Marketof Policy Development and Research | June 2012 A. Items in Tables Description Distressed Homeowners Assisted HAMP Trial Modiﬁcations HAMP Permanent Modiﬁcations HARP Reﬁnances FHA Loss Mitigation Interventions HOPE Now Modiﬁcations Counseled Borrowers (thousands) Borrower Annual Savings HAMP Active Trial Modiﬁcations SOURCES AND METHODOLOGY Frequency Sources Notes on Methodology Monthly Monthly Monthly Monthly Monthly Treasury Treasury Federal Housing Finance Agency HUD Hope Now Alliance As reported. As reported. As reported. All FHA loss mitigation and early delinquency interventions. All proprietary modiﬁcations completed. Quarterly HUD Housing counseling activity reported by all HUD-approved housing counselors. Quarterly HUD, Treasury, and Freddie Mac HAMP Active Permanent Modiﬁcations Quarterly HUD and Treasury All Reﬁnances Quarterly HUD, and MBA HUD estimate of annualized savings based on Treasury reported active HAMP trial modiﬁcations and Freddie Mac monthly savings estimates. HUD estimate of annualized savings based on Treasury reported active HAMP permanent modiﬁcations and median monthly savings estimates. Reﬁnance originations (see below) multiplied by HUD estimate of annualized savings per reﬁnance. Completed Activities Under NSP (housing units) New Construction or Residential Rehab Quarterly HUD Demolition or Clearance Quarterly HUD Direct Homeownership Assistance Quarterly HUD Change in Aggregate Home Equity Quarterly Federal Reserve Board Mortgage Rates (30-Yr FRM) Weekly Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey, as reported for 30-Year ﬁxed rate mortgages (FRM). Housing Affordability Monthly National Association of Realtors ® NAR’s composite housing affordability index as reported. A value of 100 means that a family with the median income has exactly enough income to qualify for a mortgage on a median-priced home. An index above 100 signiﬁes that family earning the median income has more than enough income to qualify. Home Prices Case-Shiller (NSA) Monthly Standard and Poor’s Monthly Monthly Federal Housing Finance Agency CoreLogic Case-Shiller 20-metro composite index, January 2000 = 100. Standard and Poor’s recommends use of not seasonally adjusted index when making monthly comparisons. FHFA monthly (purchase-only) index for US, January 1991 = 100. CoreLogic national combined index, distressed sales excluded, January 2000 = 100. (Only available as NSA). Monthly HUD and Census Bureau Existing Monthly National Association of Realtors ® First Time Buyers Monthly NAR, Census Bureau, and HUD Distressed Sales (NSA) Monthly CoreLogic Housing Supply Existing Homes for Sale (NSA) Existing Homes - Months’ Supply New Homes for Sale (SA) New Homes for Sale - Months’ Supply (SA) Vacant Units Held Off Market Monthly Monthly Monthly Monthly Quarterly National Association of Realtors ® National Association of Realtors ® HUD and Census Bureau HUD and Census Bureau Census Bureau As reported. As reported. As reported. As reported. As reported in Census CPS/HPS Table 4. Estimates of Housing Inventory, line item “Year-round vacant, held off market for reasons other than occasional use or usually reside elsewhere.” Vacant units can be held off the market for a variety of reasons. Mortgage Originations Reﬁnance Originations Quarterly Purchase Originations Quarterly Mortgage Bankers Association and HUD Mortgage Bankers Association and HUD HUD estimate of reﬁnance originations based on MBA estimate of dollar volume of reﬁance originations. HUD estimate of home purchase originations based on MBA estimate of dollar volume of home purchase originations. FHFA (SA) CoreLogic - Excluding Distressed Sales (NSA) Home Sales (SA) New Housing units constructed/rehabilitated using Neighborhood Stabilization Program. Bracketed numbers include units in process, to be completed by 3/2013. Housing units demolished/cleared using Neighborhood Stabilization Program. Bracketed numbers as above. Completed downpayment assistance or non-amortizing second mortgages by grantee to make purchase of NSP unit affordable. Bracketed numbers as above. Difference in aggregate household owners’ equity in real estate as reported in the Federal Reserve Board’s Flow of Funds Accounts of the United States for stated time period. Seasonally adjusted annual rates divided by 12. A newly constructed house is considered sold when either a sales contract has been signed or a deposit accepted, even if this occurs before construction has actually started. Seasonally adjusted annual rates divided by 12. Existing-home sales, which include singlefamily, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops, are based on transaction closings. This differs from the U.S. Census Bureau’s series on new single-family home sales, which are based on contracts or the acceptance of a deposit. Sum of seasonally adjusted new and existing home sales (above) multiplied by National Association of Realtors® annual estimate of ﬁrst time buyer share of existing home sales. Short sales and REO (Real Estate Owned) sales as a percent of total existing home sales (current month subject to revision). FHA Originations Reﬁnance Originations Purchase Originations Purchases by First Time Buyer Mortgage Delinquency Rates (NSA) Prime Subprime FHA Monthly Monthly Monthly HUD HUD HUD FHA originations reported as of date of loan closing. Estimate for current month scaled upward due to normal reporting lag and shown as preliminary. Monthly Monthly Monthly LPS Applied Analytics LPS Applied Analytics HUD Total mortgages past due (30+ days) but not in foreclosure, divided by mortgages actively serviced. Total mortgages past due (30+ days) but not in foreclosure, divided by mortgages actively serviced. Total FHA mortgages past due (30+ days) but not in foreclosure, divided by FHA’s insurance in force. Seriously Delinquent Mortgages Prime Subprime FHA Monthly Monthly Monthly LPS Applied Analytics, MBA, and HUD Mortgages 90+ days delinquent or in foreclosure, scaled up to market. LPS Applied Analytics, MBA, and HUD Mortgages 90+ days delinquent or in foreclosure, scaled up to market. HUD Mortgages 90+ days delinquent or in foreclosure. Underwater Borrowers Quarterly CoreLogic As reported. Foreclosure Actions Notice of Default (Foreclosure Starts) Monthly Realty Trac Monthly Monthly Monthly Monthly Realty Trac Realty Trac CoreLogic CoreLogic Reported counts of notice of default plus lis pendens. Some foreclosure starts may be omitted in states where the ﬁling of a notice of default is optional. Notice of sale (auctions). Real Estate Owned (REO). Count of Short Sales for the month as reported (current month subject to revision). Count of REO (Real Estate Owned) Sales for the month as reported (current month subject to revision). Notice of Foreclosure Sale Foreclosure Completions Short sales REO Sales June 2012 National Scorecard | Page 6 U.S Department of Housing and Urban Development U.S. Department of the Treasury U.S. Department Eﬀorts To Stabilize Development Office and Help American Homeowners The Obama Administration’s of Housing and Urban The Housing| Marketof Policy Development and Research | June 2012 SOURCES AND METHODOLOGY B. Notes on Charts. 1. Monthly house price trends shown as changes in respective house price indices applied to a common base price set equal to the median price of an existing home sold in January 2003 as reported by the National Association of Realtors. Indices shown: S&P/Case Shiller 20-metro composite index (NSA), January 2000 = 100, FHFA monthly (purchase-only) index for US (SA), January 1991 = 100, and CoreLogic-Distressed Sales Excluded (Monthly) for US (NSA), January 2000 =100. 2. S&P/Case-Shiller 20 metro composite index (NSA) as reported monthly. Futures index ﬁgures report forward expectations of the level of the S&P/Case Shiller index as of the date indicated, estimated from prices of futures purchased on the Chicago Board of Exchange reported by Radar Logic. 3. Reported seasonally adjusted annual rates for new and existing home sales divided by 12. 4. HUD estimate of reﬁnance originations based on MBA estimate of dollar volume of reﬁnance originations. 5. Cumulative HAMP permanent modiﬁcations started, FHA loss mitigation and early delinquency interventions, plus proprietary modiﬁcations completed as reported by Hope Now Alliance. Some homeowners may be counted in more than one category. Foreclosure completions are properties entering Real Estate Owned (REO) as reported by Realty Trac. 6. Foreclosure starts include notice of default and lis pendens, completions are properties entering REO. Both as reported by Realty Trac. See “Foreclosure Actions” above. 7. See “Borrower Annual Savings” above. 8. FHA market shares as FHA purchase and reﬁnance originations divided by HUD estimates of purchase and reﬁnance mortgage originations as noted in “Mortgage Originations” above. Data for 2010 and 2011 have been revised. C. Additional Notes. Additional loan servicers were added to the LPS Applied Analytics data base in March 2012, increasing market coverage of active prime loans in the LPS sample by 0.5 percent and active subprime loans by 20 percent. Since the estimated number of delinquent loans from this source have always been scaled to represent the entire market, the additional market coverage would not necessarily increase the number of delinquent loans reported here. The increased sample size improves the accuracy of the estimates. June 2012 National Scorecard | Page 7 U.S Department of Housing and Urban Development U.S. Department of the Treasury U.S. Department Eﬀorts To Stabilize Development Office and Help American Homeowners The Obama Administration’s of Housing and Urban The Housing| Marketof Policy Development and Research | June 2012 Appendix The Administration has taken a broad set of actions to stabilize the housing market and help American homeowners. Three years ago, stress in the ﬁnancial system had severely reduced the supply of mortgage credit, limiting the ability of Americans to buy homes or reﬁnance mortgages. Millions of responsible families who had made their monthly payments and had fulﬁlled their obligations saw their property values fall. They also found themselves unable to reﬁnance at lower mortgage rates. In February 2009, less than one month after taking ofﬁce, President Obama announced the Homeowner Affordability and Stability Plan. As part of this plan and through other housing initiatives, the Administration has taken the following actions to strengthen the housing market: • Supported Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to ensure continued access to affordable mortgage credit; • The Federal Reserve and the U.S. Treasury purchased more than $1.4 trillion in agency mortgage backed securities through independent MBS purchase programs, helping to keep mortgage rates at historic lows; • Launched a modiﬁcation initiative to help homeowners reduce mortgage payments to affordable levels and to prevent avoidable foreclosures; • Launched a $23.5 billion Housing Finance Agencies Initiative to increase sustainable homeownership and rental resources; • Supported the First Time Homebuyer Tax Credit, which helped more than 2.5 million American families purchase homes; • Provided more than $5 billion in support for affordable rental housing through low income housing tax credit programs and $6.92 billion in support for the Neighborhood Stabilization Program to restore neighborhoods hardest hit by the concentrated foreclosures; • Created the $7.6 billion HFA Hardest Hit Fund for innovative foreclosure prevention programs in the nation’s hardest hit housing markets; • Launched the $1 billion Emergency Homeowners Loan Program, as part of the DoddFrank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act, to help unemployed and underemployed homeowners pay a portion of their monthly mortgage. • Created an FHA Short Reﬁnance Option that helps underwater borrowers reﬁnance into a new, stable, FHA-insured mortgage that is more aligned with actual property values. • Supported home purchase and reﬁnance activity through the FHA to provide access to affordable mortgage capital and help homeowners prevent foreclosures. • Implemented a series of changes to the Home Affordable Reﬁnance Program (HARP) in an effort to attract more eligible borrowers who can beneﬁt from reﬁnancing their home mortgages during this time of historically low mortgage rates. ### June 2012 National Scorecard | Page 8