The full text on this page is automatically extracted from the file linked above and may contain errors and inconsistencies.
Thirty-first Annual Report Federal Reserve Bank of New York For the Year Ended December 31, 1945 Second Federal Reserve District federal R eserve Bank OF NEW YORK April 25, 1946. To the Stockholders of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York: I am pleased to transmit herewith the thirty-first animal report of the Federal Reserve Bank o f New York reviewing the year 1945. A l l a n S peoxjl , President. 2 CONTENTS PAGE Problems of Postwar A dju stm ent.................................................. 5 Reconversion in the Second Federal Reserve District. . . . 10 Business Financing .......................................................................... 12 Government Financing in 1945 ...................................................... 14 Money Supply: Federal Reserve P o lic y ........................................ Amendments to Regulations T and U .................................. 16 21 Member Bank Earnings ................................................................. 21 Organization of the World Fund and Bank 24 The United States Balance of International Payments................ Wartime Developments............................................................ Postwar Developments ............................................................ 28 28 32 Foreign Exchanges ......................................................................... 36 Foreign Relations of the Federal Reserve System 40 Operations of the Bank in 1945 ...................................................... Guaranteed War Production and Termination Loans.......... 41 43 Financial Statem ents....................................................................... Statement of Condition............................................................ Income and Disbursements...................................................... 44 44 47 Membership Changes in 1945 ........................................................ 48 Changes in Directors and Officers.................................................. Changes in Directors ............................................................. Changes in Officers ................................................................. Member of Federal Advisory C ouncil.................................... 49 49 50 50 List of Directors and O fficers.......................................................... 51 3 IN MEMORIAM It is with deep regret that we record the loss of the following employees who gave their lives in the service of their country. 1 9 4 1 -1 9 4 5 BAKER, RAYMOND GARRETTSON, GATTO, ELMER JOSEPH HEGARTY, KEVIN JOHNSON, ROBERT MATHEWS, DEWEY MORRIS, THOMAS MULLINS, JAMES MURPHY, HAROLD RANNEY, FRANK SLADE, WAY, WILLIAM JOHN W INSTEN, HARRY “ . . . The world will little note, nor long remember, what we say here, but it can never forget what they did here. It is for us the living, rather, to be dedicated here to the unfinished work which they who fought here have thus far so nobly advanced. It is rather for us to be here dedicated to the great task remaining before us — that from these honored dead we take increased devotion to that cause for which they gave the last full measure of devotion — that we here highly resolve that these dead shall not have died in vain — that this nation, under God, shall have a new birth of freedom — and that government of the people, by the people, for the people, shall not perish from the earth.” 4 Federal Reserve Bank of New York Thirty-first Annual Report The year 1945 was a year of surprises. Much economic forecasting and policy making had been based on the assumption that demobilization and reconversion would be a two-stage process. But the collapse of Japan followed with dramatic suddenness the termination of the war in Europe. The result was that in the last five months of the year reconversion hit the American economy with full force and with little or no opportunity to ease its impact. There had been a widespread debate as to whether the war would be followed by deflation or inflation. Very plausible arguments were marshaled on each side. Those who feared deflationary developments stressed the demobilization of the armed forces and the reduction of the budget to a peacetime basis. On the inflationary side were the deferred demands for civilian goods and the large wartime savings in the form of currency and bank deposits and individual holdings of Government securities. Though there was a wide difference of emphasis on these conflicting factors, the commonly expected pattern of postwar experience was that of a sharp, though possibly short, downturn immediately follow ing the war (particularly if the two wars ended close together), a recovery of output and employment as reconversion got into full swing, and a much more problematical long-run prospect after business and consumer buying had caught up with deferred demands. The second great surprise of 1945 was the lightness of the initial impact of reconversion. It had been widely predicted that in the first six months after the war the national income would drop by 15 per cent or more, and various official and private estimates placed the amount of unemployment to be expected by the spring of 1946 at from 5 to 10 million. Actually, and notwithstanding the wave of strikes in major industries, unemployment has at no time exceeded 3 million, and the drop in national income payments from the wartime peak to the first quarter of 1946 has not exceeded 5 per cent. Yet in the same period the number of persons in the armed forces has been brought down from 12 million to 5 million, and the Federal budget, from a deficit that in the 5 THIRTY-FIRST ANNUAL REPORT 6 first half of 1945 was running at an annual rate of 50 billion dollars, has been rapidly moving toward an even balance. It is clear that there was a general underestimation of the force of the expansionary factors which the close of the war would let loose on the economy. The outstanding feature has been the continuous rise of consumption from month to month since the war ended. This is all the more remarkable in view of the fact that during the war consumption had been already at the highest level in our history. Perhaps an even more remarkable fact is that, so far as the data yet indicate,* the rise of consumption, in the aggregate, has not been financed to any extent out of wartime savings but mostly out of current income. Apparently what is happening is that the public, while still retaining its huge backlog of savings, is spending much more freely out of newly received income than almost anyone anticipated, and in the process is generating new forces of expansion which are proving sufficient to offset very largely the great decline in military expenditure. Meanwhile, the replacement of persons temporarily employed during the war by returning veterans is proceeding more rapidly and smoothly than was anticipated. These unexpectedly favorable developments in the initial phase of transition from war to peace have sharpened fears that we may repeat the experience after the last war. After a brief period of hesitation, a buying boom got under way in the spring of 1919. Wages and prices rose in a spiral. There was feverish inventory accumulation and forward buying, and export trade expansion, to meet the needs of a war-torn world, intensified the internal inflationary forces. In the spring of 1920, the boom collapsed, prices dropped 40 per cent by July 1921, and un employment rose to over 5 million. The American economy is much larger today than it was in 1919, and swings of the same relative magnitude in employment would run to considerably larger figures. W e have, moreover, come through a much bigger war, particularly as regards the American effort, and the forces generated by it which can affect the postwar period are much more powerful. There was little counterpart after the last war for the present huge accumulation of deferred demands. Comparatively, we took that war in our stride, with relatively little restraint upon the civilian economy. W e produced, for example, a million passenger auto mobiles in 1918. * It must be remembered that available figures of savings are net figures, and it is possible that there has been substantial use of wartime savings by some people while others have continued to save large amounts. FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF NEW YORK 7 Undoubtedly, there are very strong expansionary forces at work today. One of the most striking facts is that the growth of consumption has been mainly in nondurable goods. Expenditures for such goods have been far higher in relation to disposable income than could have been expected on the basis of the relationships in the period 1929-40. Part of the explanation undoubtedly is that consumption had been at low levels during the depression years and supplies of many goods of this character, as well as of the durable goods, were limited during the war. The return of large numbers of servicemen to civilian life has also involved much special outlay, and with this has been coupled the sharp increase in Government transfer payments reflecting increased mustering-out pay to discharged servicemen and unemployment compensation. Undoubtedly, also, an important element has been the general sense of release from war and the resultant willingness to spend more freely. Some of these influences are temporary and may already have reached or passed their peak. But against any leveling-off in this type of demand is to be put the fact that the expansion of durable goods, both consumers’ and producers’, has scarcely begun. It seems reasonably certain that the deferred demands for automobiles, housing, and other consumer durable goods, combined with replenishment of producers’ inventories and demand for fixed capital goods, will carry civilian production, already at a new peacetime high, to substantially higher levels. To home demands will undoubtedly be added a substantial export demand, for the financing of which, in addition to Governmental aid and such private lending as may develop, there has been built up during the war a large volume of foreign gold and dollar balances. All these factors lend force to the question whether we are now laying the groundwork for a fairly extended period of high output and employ ment or whether, as after the last war, we are to have a sharp inflationary outburst followed by depression. Undoubtedly, there are strong infla tionary pressures. The money supply has trebled since 1939, and business and the consuming public are more liquid than at any previous time in our history. Though production is rising, it will, under the best condi tions, take some time to get a broad and well-balanced output, and until this is achieved there will be strong upward pressure upon prices. Another and related factor is the tendency toward a continuing decline of interest rates. The combination of low and declining interest rates, redundant money supply, and favorable business expectations has often in the past been a highly explosive inflationary force, pushing up prices in all mar THIRTY-FIRST ANNUAL REPORT 8 kets, for both securities and commodities. To these forces are added, in the present case, the large and still untapped wartime savings and the huge backlog of deferred demands. Of special importance in such cir cumstances is the relation between wages and prices. As already stated, the inflationary outburst after the last war followed the familiar wageprice spiral, increases in each pushing the other higher. The dropping of wage controls after Y -J Day and the early sanction given to wage increases which would not require price increases developed quickly into a general demand for higher wage rates to sustain the wartime level of take-home pay, and it soon became apparent that some offsetting price increases would be unavoidable. In assessing our present situation, it may be helpful to list some of the main features of past inflationary periods. Historically, drastic in flation has usually been associated with budgetary deficits and with deficits in a country’s international balance, leading to currency depreciation. With these, and largely as a consequence of them, has gone a distrust of the currency resulting in capital flight and a panicky desire to run away from money into commodities, real estate, and equity securities. These conditions are today fortunately absent in this country. The Federal deficit is rapidly diminishing, and there is a highly favorable prospect of a balanced budget for the fiscal year 1947. In the last bond drive, the Treasury overborrowed its requirements and with its present large balances is effecting some reduction of the debt. W e should do everything possible to maintain revenue at its present high level and to reduce or postpone expenditures. Internationally, there is no pressure on our balance of payments and no anxiety about the external stability of the dollar. There is, however, a danger of excessive exports at a time when supplies at home are still scarce. There is no fundamental distrust of our currency, such as characterized the great European inflations after the last war. But we do have a redundant money supply and a tendency toward continuing decline of interest rates, and these, when combined with other inflationary pressures, can have effects which, though much milder, are not dissimilar in character to distrust of the currency. Probably the two most fundamental aspects of our situation today are the danger of a wage-price spiral, such as we had after the last war, and the related questions of the volume and cost of output. As has been stated, the drive for higher wage rates soon forced recognition that 9 FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF NEW YORK there would have to be some accompanying rise of prices. The problem is how to stabilize this relation. The modified wage-price policy announced by the President on February 14th recognized the need for re-imposition of wage-rate control and established a procedure for wage-price adjust ments which may achieve a more stable relation, though in view of the fact that major strikes are still in progress it is too early to assess the results of the new policy. There have also been uncertainties and much division of opinion with regard to the operation of price controls. Ex tension of the Price Control Act seems an indispensable condition of a successful anti-inflationary policy in this immediate postwar period, when potential demand is so far in excess of available supply. But there has been a growing awareness that the control must be flexible and be based on recognition of the fact that price changes, in a period when we are trying to work back to a condition of free markets, have an indispensable role to play in bringing out a balanced output and directing and controlling demand. Fundamentally, in a situation like the present, the antidote to infla tion is a large and balanced output with rising productivity per worker. Viewed as a whole, there is evidence that output is expanding, but it takes time, under the best of conditions, after a great war to fill up the channels of trade with civilian goods and achieve a well-balanced output. To this objective Governmental and business policies must be mainly directed, and upon our success in achieving it will largely depend whether we shall lay the foundations in 1946 for a period of orderly prosperity or have an inflationary outburst terminating in depression. Perhaps equally important, especially for the longer run, is the emphasis on increasing productivity per worker. During the war, we achieved an enormous expansion of output, and by this means more than any other managed to ward off the danger of inflation. But we did it more through concentration of the war effort in the mass production industries than through any over-all increase in productivity. Indeed, there is consid erable opinion that there was an actual loss in efficiency, and this is not surprising in view of the fact that war compels a country to get the largest output in the shortest time regardless of cost. But if history is any guide, the war should be followed by a resumption, and even an acceleration, of the sharp advance of productivity per worker which characterized the interwar period. Such an advance would provide the basis not only for reducing inflationary pressures through the rise of output, but also for establishing the relation of high incomes and low prices which is essential for continuing prosperity in the longer run. THIRTY-FIRST ANNUAL REPORT 10 R e c o n v e r s io n i n t h e S econd F ederal R eserve D is t r ic t In this District, as in the country as a whole, the transition from wartime to peacetime activities was well under way by the end of 1945. Termination or cutbacks of war production had been largely completed and physical reconversion of plants had made much progress. The prin cipal restraining influences on expansion of peacetime production (aside from the wage-price problem and resulting work stoppages) were con tinued shortages of certain materials, and difficulties of shifting workers from war industries to those in which labor was in demand. Factory employment had been declining gradually for a number of months before the end of the war, more largely because of the shrinkage in the labor force resulting from the continued growth of the armed forces than because of lack of jobs, and consequently had not been accom panied by a material increase in unemployment. A further sharp drop in industrial employment occurred in the month following the end of the war with Japan, but just as the wartime rise in employment had been less rapid in this District than in other parts of the country, so the drop in employment immediately after the war was less severe, owing largely to the importance of industries producing essential civilian goods, especially in New York State. A t the end of the year, a gradual rise in factory employment was evident in a number of communities, and other lines of business which had had great difficulty m obtaining suitable help during the war were expanding their work forces. The construction in dustry, for example, which had reached its lowest level of activity in many years during the first quarter of 1945, expanded fairly rapidly during the remainder of the year, although this industry, like others, continued to be handicapped by shortages of materials and skilled labor. The situation varied widely among various industrial centers of the District. In communities such as Buffalo, Utica, and the New York City area in New York State, and Paterson and Newark in Northern New Jersey, where major war industries such as aircraft factories and ship yards had played a large part in the wartime growth of employment, the greater part of the wartime increase had been canceled by the end of 1945. On the other hand, communities in which there was no com parable growth of specialized war production facilities, and whose indus tries were more readily converted to peacetime production, such as FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF NEW YORK 11 Rochester, Syracuse, and the Albany-Troy-Schenectady area, still had a considerably higher level of factory employment at the end of 1945 than before the war. On the whole, this District appears to have fared better in 1945 than some other sections of the country which in preceding years had experi enced a more rapid growth of activity. Total income payments to indi viduals in this District, which had lagged behind the rest of the country during the early war years, are estimated to have increased by about 6 per cent from 1944 to 1945, compared with an increase of less than 4 per cent for the country as a whole. Similarly, retail trade in this area ran moderately ahead of the rest of the country during the past year, whereas it had lagged noticeably between 1939 and 1943. On the whole, this District appears to be entering the postwar period with at least as favorable prospects as most other sections of the country, although, like other districts, it has some communities which are facing difficult problems of readjustment. Income Payments in the United States and in the Second Federal Reserve District* (1939 = 100 per cent) PER CENT * U . S. Department of Commerce estimates for the United States; data for Second Federal Reserve District estimated by Federal Reserve Bank o f New York. THIRTY-FIRST ANNUAL REPORT 12 Business Financing The most striking feature of the year with respect to business financing was the extraordinary volume of refunding operations carried out by corporations to take advantage of the prevailing low interest rates. The total volume for the year amounted to nearly 5 billion dollars, and in the month of October alone was close to a billion dollars, reflecting efforts to complete refinancing operations before the Victory Loan and before the end of the year. (Flotations of corporation securities were largely suspended during War Loan drives to avoid competing with Treasury issues for investors’ funds.) A factor which, in addition to the low level of interest rates, tended to stimulate refunding operations in 1945, was the scheduled expiration of the excess profits tax at the end of the year; corporations subject to the excess profits tax took advantage of their ability to retire securities which were callable only at substantial premiums and to offset the cost of the premiums and other refinancing expenses against their net income for the year, thus reducing their tax liabilities by a substantial percentage of the cost of the refinancing operations. Annual Volume of Domestic Corporate Security Issues for Refunding and ,or New Capital m il l io n s OF DOLLARS 1937 Source: 1938 1939 1940 Commercial and Financial Chronicle. 1941 1942 1943 1944 1945 FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF NEW YORK 13 Prominent among the corporations engaging in large-scale refunding operations were railroads which, as a result of the improvement in their financial position growing out of the record volume of railroad traffic during the war, had improved their credit standing to the point where their securities became salable on a more favorable basis, relative to other types of securities, than for a number of years. Public utilities engaged in refunding operations on an even larger scale, and there was also a con siderable volume of such operations by industrial concerns. Railroad and public utility issues took the form chiefly of bonds, whereas industrial issues included a considerable proportion of preferred stocks which also were salable on a lower yield basis than ever before. Although refunding operations accounted for the major share in the total volume of new securities sold during the year, there was a rising trend in the volume of corporation securities sold to obtain new funds for plant construction and improvements to assist in meeting the expected heavy demands for goods and services in the postwar period. The strong stock market which prevailed during most of the year facilitated the successful flotation of a number of common stock issues, but the volume, while larger than in any years since 1936, was still far short of the flotations of equity securities in the latter part of the decade of the 20’s. After the end of the war with Japan, bank loans to business bor rowers other than war contractors, which had undergone a considerable shrinkage from the beginning of 1942 to the middle of 1944, began to expand, and in the latter part of 1945 showed a fairly rapid growth. Some of the loans represented, in effect, refunding operations, as the borrowers arranged term loans from banks to obtain funds with which to retire outstanding securities. In addition, however, there was a grow ing volume of business borrowing to finance current and planned ex pansion of peacetime operations. By the end of 1945 the total volume of business loans in weekly reporting member banks was at the highest level since at least 1931, and further expansion was in prospect. Altogether, it would appear that, despite the huge growth in business holdings of liquid assets, such as cash in banks and Government securities during the war period, plans for expansion in the postwar period are calling for sizable amounts of new capital and bank credit. THIRTY-FIRST ANNUAL REPORT 14 Government Financing in 1945 Despite the rapid curtailment of war expenditures in the latter part of the year, total Government disbursements for the year as a whole were only moderately smaller than in 1944. W ar expenditures in the first seven months of the year averaged even higher than in the previous year, and the subsequent shrinkage in such expenditures was partly offset by increases in expenses of the “ aftermath of war” category, such as aids to veterans, excess profits and other tax refunds, and interest on the public debt. As a result, total expenditures declined only from about 96 billion dollars in 1944 to 88 billion dollars in 1945. Nevertheless, total current expenditures and receipts were rapidly approaching a balance at the close of the year. For the full year, tax and other receipts increased slightly further, and for the first year since 1940 exceeded 50 per cent of Government expenditures. Total revenues from individual income taxes and business income and excess profits taxes were practically the same as in 1944. U . S. Government Expenditures and Sources of the Financing of Such Expenditures, by Calendar Years B U L L IO N S OF D O LLA RS EXPENDITURES -ii20f RECEIPTS BANK C R E D IT SAVING S* TAXES A L L OTHER WAR EXPENDITURES 1941 ’42 ’ 4 3 ’4 4 ’ 45 1941 ’ 4 2 ’ 4 3 ’ 4 4 ’ 45 t Net absorption by nonbank investors of Government securities. A FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF NEW YORK 15 moderate increase in payments by individuals was offset by some reduc tion in corporation taxes which reflected the use of excess profits tax credits to offset, in part, payments due in the last five months of the year, as permitted by the Tax Adjustment Act of 1945 which was approved in July. The small net increase in total receipts was attributable to gains in other income, including excise taxes and the proceeds of renegotiation of war contracts and of surplus property sales. Two heavily oversubscribed War Loans, together with net sales of Savings bonds in interdrive months, produced more than enough funds to cover the reduced net expenditures of Government in 1945, and left the Treasury at the close of the year with a working balance of about 26 billion dollars— nearly 4 billion more than at the end of 1944. This balance is far greater than the amount required to cover the remaining deficit for the balance of the current fiscal year, and is sufficient to permit the retirement of a substantial amount of outstanding Treasury securities. Although the amount raised by borrowing operations was in excess of Treasury needs during 1945, the net increase in the public debt (47 bil lion dollars) was about one-fourth less than in 1944, when, as a result of three W ar Loans, the Treasury raised a larger amount of funds to meet its greater expenditures and its working balance was increased by nearly 10 billion dollars. In the Seventh War Loan, which opened in April 1945 and closed at the end of June, the Treasury raised over 26 billion dollars compared with a goal of 14 billion, and in the Victory Loan (November-December) the amount raised was over 21 billion dollars compared with a goal of 11 billion. In both cases the figures are exclusive of limited sales of securities to commercial banks for the employment of time deposits and of securities sold to Government agencies and trust funds, which amounted to approximately 2y2 and 2 billion dollars, respectively. For the year 1945 as a whole the portion of the increase in the public debt absorbed by nonbank investors, other than Government agencies and trust funds, was about 48 per cent of the total, the smallest percentage since 1942. This was so despite the reduced amount of Treasury bor rowing, and if public holdings of Government securities financed by bank loans were excluded, the comparison would be even less favorable. In the Seventh War Loan, however, public absorption of Treasury securi ties, exclusive of subscriptions financed by bank loans or sales to banks of previous issues of Treasury securities, appears to have been greater 16 THIRTY-FIRST ANNUAL REPORT than in any other War Loan. Bank loans and purchases of previously outstanding issues provided about 40 per cent of the funds invested in Seventh War Loan securities, whereas in most other drives the proportion was not far from 50 per cent. In the Victory Loan, subscriptions financed indirectly by the commercial banks appear to have represented over half of the total. In addition, net sales of Savings bonds in interdrive months were smaller than in preceding war years, and for the first time there were net redemptions of Savings (tax) notes. Redemptions of Savings bonds continued to increase with the growth in the volume of securities outstanding, and were accentuated after the end of the war, reflecting in part reduced industrial employment resulting from cancellation of war contracts. ward trend. Meanwhile, sales showed a down For the year as a whole, redemptions were equal to 43 per cent of sales, compared with 21 per cent in 1944. Nevertheless, they averaged only slightly over 1 per cent a month of the amount out standing, and even after the war were less than had been commonly expected. Redemptions of Savings notes exceeded sales by 1.5 billion dollars in 1945, compared with excess of sales over redemptions in 1944 of about 1.4 billion dollars. Money Supply: Federal Reserve Policy The already unprecedented money supply in the form of currency and bank deposits increased substantially further during 1945, chiefly through indirect participation by commercial banks in Treasury finan cing, although the moderate increase in bank loans to business was a minor factor. Total deposits (adjusted to exclude interbank deposits and “ float” between banks) plus currency, increased about 24 billion dollars during the year to approximately 175 billion, compared with 61 billion at the end of June 1939 before the outbreak of war in Europe, and 78 billion at the end of 1941 when the United States entered the war. Demand deposits, exclusive of Government deposits as well as interbank deposits and “ float” , increased 8 billion dollars during 1945, compared with 6 billion in 1944. The greater increase in 1945, when a smaller increase might have been expected, is accounted for by the fact that the two W ar Loan drives in 1945 absorbed a smaller part of the growth in private deposits than the three loans in 1944. Government deposits showed a net increase of about 4 billion dollars in 1945, compared with 10 billion dollars in the preceding year. dollars against 7 billion in 1944. Time deposits increased 9 billion The demand for currency diminished, FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF NEW YORK 17 Deposits and Currency in the United States* (December 31 of each year) BILLIONS OF D O L L A R S 200 175 150 TOTAL MOiNEV SUP PL 125 W rn i; s a g e s 100 75 50 \1 ... » I X ^ V V X • ^ \ X X X X X? V ^ X 25 0 1939 \ \ X ^\ x C»>?\SSv\N v \ \ x \ \ s. ■ ' ^ x \ \ xn> x v \ \ . \ i. \ ^ xx \ \ ,C 7 V V 7 X , V ■ v X 1940 X 1941 DEMAND DEPOSITS $< / \ a . / ah M iQ T m ^ v Os 1942 1943 1944 1945 * December 31, 1945 preliminary. especially in the latter part of the year, and the increase in the amount outstanding outside the banks for the full year was somewhat over 3 billion dollars, compared with nearly 5 billion in 1944. As in preceding years, the principal increases in total bank deposits occurred during W ar Loan drives, reflecting the effects of bank loans on and bank purchases of Treasury securities. While deposits of indi viduals, businesses, trust funds, etc., were reduced considerably during each W ar Loan drive by payments for the new Treasury securities, the reductions in such deposits were far less than the increases in Government deposits, owing to the large amounts of subscriptions by nonbank in vestors which were financed through bank loans or through sales of previously acquired securities directly or indirectly to the banks. Fol lowing each W ar Loan, Government deposits were drawn down and private deposit accounts were built up through Government expenditures, until, just before each W ar Loan, the total volume of private deposits, was substantially higher than before the preceding War Loan. At the end of 1945 Government deposits were at a new high level. Consequently, a sizable element in the total volume of bank deposits THIRTY-FIRST ANNUAL REPORT 18 represented potential, rather than actual, purchasing power to the public. The extent to which Government deposits will be shifted into deposits in the hands of individuals and businesses will depend upon the use made by the Government of its funds. As a result of the heavy oversubscrip tion of the Victory Loan, Government deposits at the end of 1945 were far larger than are likely to be needed by the Government to bridge the gap between receipts and expenditures for many months to come. Use of the surplus funds to retire Government securities held by the public would increase the money supply available to the public for spending or investment quite as much as net Government expenditures.* Use of the funds to redeem bank-held securities would cancel part of last year’s increase in bank credit and would help to prevent further growth in the money supply in the hands of the public. In so far as the redeemed securities are held by the Federal Eeserve Banks, their retirement would reduce the reserves of the commercial banks as well as their War Loan deposits. Tendencies which encouraged a large growth in the volume of bank credit, and so caused a further growth in the money supply were accentuated during 1945. Commercial banks, excluded from direct par ticipation in W ar Loan subscriptions since the Second War Loan, and offered no large issues of Treasury securities directly since 1943, were in the market more or less persistently for Government securities pre viously purchased by nonbank investors, not only during the drives, but also to a lesser extent during the intervening periods. Since the begin ning of 1945 especially, the banks increasingly tended to bid for the longer-term bonds which they are eligible to hold. Bank buying of such securities (as well as shorter-term securities) facilitated “ roll-over” operations during W ar Loan drives by savings institutions and other corporations, through which such investors sold to banks at premium prices substantial amounts of Treasury securities previously acquired, and used the proceeds to subscribe for new Treasury issues at par. Such operations enabled the sellers to obtain profits on the securities sold, in addition to accrued interest, and to buy larger amounts of new higher-yielding securities offered in the next W ar Loan than they would have been able to buy with new funds obtained in the ordinary course of their business. * Reserve requirements of banks would be increased, however, owing to the transfer of funds from Government deposits to private deposits. FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF NEW YORK 19 The situation was also conducive to speculative subscriptions by individuals during drives— subscriptions placed in the expectation, not of holding the securities to maturity, but of selling them within compara tively short periods after the drives at premium prices, and thus obtain ing quick profits in addition to current interest. An incidental result was the “ padding” of War Loan subscriptions, which gave an exagger ated impression of the degree of success of the W ar Loans in obtaining new funds from nonbank investors for the financing of the war. Another result was a successive rise in the average interest cost to the Treasury on its borrowing in the Sixth and Seventh W ar Loans and in the Victory Loan, despite the downward tendency of interest rates in the market, owing to an increasing concentration of subscriptions in the longestterm, highest-yielding securities offered. These tendencies, which had as their end results large-scale shifts of Treasury securities into commercial banks, with accompanying increases in the money supply, and upward pressure on prices of Treasury securi ties which commercial banks are eligible to hold, were outgrowths of the wartime “ pattern of rates” on Government securities which was largely maintained from 1942 onward. They are indicative of the problems involved in maintaining such a structure of interest rates. The wartime rate pattern ran from % per cent for three month Treasury bills to 2 % per cent for bonds maturing or callable in about 25 years. So long as such a rate pattern is maintained it gives assurance that a security will move to a lower-yield basis and will rise in price as the period to its maturity becomes shorter, until it begins to near its call or maturity date. As confidence in the maintenance of the pattern of rates grew, and the longer it was maintained, the more obvious became the advantages of investing in long-term rather than short-term securities, and all classes of investors, including commercial banks, tended to shift their buying to the longer-term securities. Commercial banks obtained funds for purchases of such securities (as well as funds to meet the drains on their reserves resulting from public demands for currency, and from transfers of deposits and in creases in their reserve requirements) by selling Treasury bills to the Reserve Banks, by selling other short-term securities, such as Treasury certificates of indebtedness, in the market and, to some extent, by bor rowing from the Reserve Banks on the collateral of short-term Treasury securities at the preferential discount rate of ^2 Per cent. In view of the general shift of demand to the longer-term securities, the Federal Reserve THIRTY-FIRST ANNUAL REPORT 20 Banks were forced to become large buyers of short-term securities to maintain stability in that section of the market. In meeting the com bined objectives of providing member banks with needed reserves and exerting a stabilizing influence on the Government security market during the war period, the Federal Reserve Banks bought a total of about 22 billion dollars of Government securities, largely short-term. This made it possible to finance a war which required an enormous amount of funds, without rising rates of interest, an unprecedented accomplishment. It created problems, however, just as did other phases of the war effort. As long as the Federal Reserve System was under the necessity of supporting the short-term section of the Government security market, the initiative in determining the amount of Federal Reserve credit available to the banks was shifted from the System to the commercial banks, and effective control over the ability of the banks to expand their investments and deposits was impossible. It was evident at the end of the year that these problems arising out of the wartime structure of interest rates would by no means disappear with the completion of war financing, but would continue and, in fact, were in some respects likely to become accentuated. While yields on the longer-term “ bank eligible’ ’ Treasury bonds had sagged considerably under the pressure of bank buying because of the limited supply, yields on long-term “ restricted” bonds had been fairly well maintained by periodic Treasury offerings of such bonds in virtually unlimited amounts. With the close of the Victory Loan, however, the prospect for further issues of long-term bonds was in doubt because of the huge cash balance then held by the Treasury and its greatly reduced need for funds. Meanwhile further accumulation of funds in insurance companies, savings banks, trust funds, and in the hands of other investors, which would be available for investment in long-term Government securities, was practically certain, after the over buying of the Victory Loan drive had been absorbed. In the absence of further issues of long-term bonds, investment of these funds in out standing securities would tend to raise prices and lower yields, and thus would tend to depress long-term interest rates. A t the same time it appeared probable that commercial banks would continue to buy Treasury securities in the market as long as they could obtain the necessary funds easily and cheaply from the Reserve Banks. There are still large amounts of medium-term Treasury securities (which banks are eligible to hold) in the hands of savings institutions and other FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF NEW YORK 21 investors. Furthermore, as securities approach maturity, and their yields decline to very low levels, they tend to be sold by other investors to the banks. The general tendency, therefore, would be for medium and longer-term interest rates to decline further, and for the public debt to shift into the banking system. The resulting “ monetization of the debt” would be reflected in further growth in the money supply in the hands of the public above the record level that resulted from war financing. In view of the widespread shortages of goods and the accumulated de mands and accumulated purchasing power, and jthe resulting inflationary pressures on the general level of prices, the prospect of still further growth in the money supply could not be regarded with indifference. This posed serious problems for the Federal Reserve System and for the Treasury. A m endm ents to R e g u l a t io n s T and U In view of the great wartime growth in the money supply, and the undesirability of unnecessary further extensions of credit, the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System first increased margin require ments for credit extended by brokers and banks to finance trading in stock exchange securities, and then eliminated margin trading entirely. By amendments of Regulations T and U, effective July 5, 1945, the Board raised margin requirements from 50 per cent to 75 per cent. Further amendments, effective January 21, 1946, raised the requirements to 100 per cent, thereby eliminating margin trading and preventing any further expansion of credit in connection with trading in listed securities. Member Bank Earnings Accounting of member bank earnings is neither precise nor uniform, and no method of attempting to present an over-all picture seems to be free of the possibility of misinterpretation. On the basis which this bank has used for a number of years, in reporting bank earnings and expenses, net profits, after income taxes, of member banks in this District increased substantially further during 1945, averaging 11.6 per cent of total capital funds, compared with 9.5 per cent in 1944, 7.2 per cent in 1943, and 4.4 per cent in 1942.* Increases in reported profits in many cases, however, were attributable in considerable measure to nonrecurrent additions to current earnings. Included among the nonrecurrent additions to current earnings were a number of large recoveries on loans or investments pre viously charged off or written down on the banks’ books, and other large * Unweighted averages of ratios for individual banks. THIRTY-FIRST ANNUAL REPORT 22 transfers from “ valuation reserves” to undivided profits or general reserves. In addition, the relatively large profits taken by many banks on securities sold during the past year may be considered at least partly nonrecurrent. Furthermore, the changes in bank profits from 1944 to 1945 were far from uniform; over 200 banks, or more than one fourth of all banks included in the annual survey, had smaller profits in 1945 than in the previous year. Such cases were especially numerous among the smaller banks of the District, although they occurred also among the larger banks outside New York City. It was especially difficult, under the conditions which prevailed during the past year, to arrive at figures which would reflect accurately the current earning power of banks. The reported net current earnings of the banks, adjusted for taxes on current income, are not an adequate measure, as it has been a common practice of the banks to take (in effect) part of their income from investments in Government securities in the form of capital gains. This is done by selling securities at premium prices and reinvesting in other securities which, after provision for amortization of premiums, provide a lower rate of current income than the securities originally held. On the other hand, some banks continue to follow the practice of using profits on securities sold for “ valuation reserves” — that is, to write down the book value of securities in their portfolios by applying profits taken on securities sold. Such banks have not reported large additions to current earnings in the form of capital gains, but will not have to make provision for amortization of premiums out of the future income from their investments as will banks that have not followed that practice. A quite different situation arises when unfavorable conditions pre vail in the security markets, or in the economic situation generally. At such times net profits of the banks run lower than net current earnings because of charge-offs or actual losses on assets. Frequently, however, these charge-offs or losses result, not from operations during the current year, but from loans or investments made in prior years. On the whole, it is probable that the net profits of member banks in this District for 1945, as computed by this bank, give a somewhat exag gerated impression of the banks’ earning power. And it is difficult to appraise accurately the prospect for bank earnings in the period ahead since a number of conflicting factors are at work, some tending to increase bank profits still further, and others tending to reduce them. FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF NEW YORK 23 Among the factors tending to cause further increases in bank profits are the following: 1. At the end of 1945 banks held considerable amounts of Govern ment securities purchased near the end of the year, from which they received little income in 1945, but will receive income through all, or a considerable part, of 1946. 2. Commercial and industrial loans have been expanding at a fairly rapid pace in recent months, and may continue to increase. 3. While not many banks have been subject to the excess profits ' tax, banks generally will have the advantage of the reduction in the combined normal and surtax rates on corporation income. Among the factors tending to limit the further growth of bank earnings or to cause reductions, the following may be listed: 1. Expenses for salaries and other items have been increasing and will probably increase further. 2. Total bank earning assets are unlikely to continue the rapid growth of war years because of the conclusion of war financing in 1945, liquidation of loans on Government securities which were made during the Victory Loan, and the use of part of the huge Treasury working balances that resulted from the Victory Loan to retire Government securities held by the banks. 3. Additions to current earnings in the form of capital gains and recoveries are likely to be smaller. Banks apparently are running out of assets on which further recoveries are possible, and oppor tunities for profit-taking may be limited. 4. Profits taken on securities sold in 1945 and previous years, and replacement purchases at premium prices will require greater deductions from current income for amortization of premiums, and hence result in lower rates of income from investment portfolios. These conflicting forces will, of course, affect individual banks dif ferently, and it would not be surprising if the experience of individual banks in the period ahead showed even greater diversity than in 1945. On the whole, it seems unlikely that bank profits will continue the rapid growth of the past three years, and it is possible that some reversal of that trend may occur. THIRTY-FIRST ANNUAL REPORT 24 Organization of the World Fund and Bank The last report of this bank contained a brief summary of the Articles of Agreement of the International Monetary Fund and of the International Biank for Reconstruction and Development drawn up by 44 nations at the United Nations Monetary and Financial Conference held at Bretton Woods, New Hampshire in July 1944. These agreements were to be referred to their respective governments for formal adoption or rejection. They were to come into force no later than December 31, 1945, and only when signed on behalf of governments having 65 per cent of the aggregate quotas and 65 per cent of the aggregate subscriptions in the case of the Fund and the Bank, respectively. The United States was the first country to act upon the agreements. Following several months of hearings in the spring and summer of 1945 before the House and Senate Committees on Banking and Currency, enabling legislation to provide for American participation in the Fund and Bank, known as the “ Bretton Woods Agreements A ct” , was passed by Congress and approved on July 31, 1945 by the President. In addi tion to authorizing the President to accept membership for the United States in the two organizations, the Act contained a series of important provisions relating to American participation therein. The major pro visions are as follows: 1. The Act provides for the establishment of a National Advisory Council on International Monetary and Financial Problems, to consist of the Secretary of the Treasury, Secretary of State, Secretary of Com merce, Chairman of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, and Chairman of the Board of Trustees of the Export-Import Bank. The essential purpose of the Council is to coordinate the policies and operations of the American representatives on the Fund and the Bank and of all agencies of the Government which make or participate in making foreign loans or which engage in foreign financial, exchange, or monetary transactions. The Council will advise and consult with the President and with the American representatives on the Fund and the Bank regarding major problems arising in the administration of the two institutions; it will recommend to the President general policy direc tives for the guidance of these representatives; and it will periodically publish reports evaluating the operations and policies of the two institutions. 2. The Secretary of the Treasury is authorized to use the 1.8 billion FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF NEW YORK 25 dollars of gold in the inactive account of the Exchange Stabilization Fund to pay part of the American subscription to the International Fund (amounting to 2,750 million dollars). The balance of 950 million dollars, as well as such payments as are required on the American subscription to the Bank (amounting to 3,175 million dollars) are to be met from proceeds of securities to be issued under the Second Liberty Bond Act as amended. In order to keep to a minimum the cost of participation in the institutions, the Secretary of the Treasury is authorized, to the extent permitted under the Articles of Agreement, to substitute for dol lars held by the Fund or Bank noninterest bearing, nonnegotiable special notes of the United States payable on demand. 3. The American representatives on the Bank are directed to obtain an official interpretation from that institution as to its authority to make or guarantee loans for programs of economic reconstruction and the reconstruction of monetary systems and, if necessary, to propose and support an amendment to the Articles of Agreement so as to permit such loans. The American representatives on the Fund are similarly directed to obtain an official interpretation from the Fund as to whether it has the authority to use its resources (1) other than for current monetary stabilization operations which afford temporary assistance to members or (2) to provide facilities for relief, reconstruction, armaments, or financing large or sustained capital outflows, and, if necessary, to propose and support an amendment negativing such interpretation of (1) and (2). 4. The Act suspends the operation of the so-called Johnson Act of 1934 with respect to members of the Fund and Bank. 5. The American Governor of the Fund and Bank is to be the same person, and he is to have a single alternate. It was not until late in the year that other countries, sufficient in number to make it operative, adopted the Bretton "Woods program. This delay was partly attributable to the reluctance of Great Britain to adhere until it was assured of special financial aid from the United States to meet its transitional balance of payments difficulties, and to the reluctance of other countries to act until Britain had done so. The conclusion of negotiations concerning an Anglo-American Financial Agreement on December 5, however, was quickly followed by the ad herence to the Fund and Bank of Britain and a large number of other countries. On December 27, twenty-eight countries, including the United States, with combined quotas and subscriptions in excess of the required 26 THIRTY-FIRST ANNUAL REPORT minimum of 65 per cent, formally signed the Articles of Agreement in a ceremony held in Washington*. By December 31, 1945, the latest date on which the Articles of Agreement could come into force, another seven countries had joined. Initial steps in the organization of the Bretton Woods institutions as going concerns were taken at the inaugural meetings of the Boards of Governors of the Fund and Bank held at Wilmington Island, Savannah, Georgia, from March 8 to 18, 1946. At these meetings the Boards of Governors admitted three new members, El Salvador, Nicaragua, and Panama, to the two institutions on the same terms as the charter members. A quota and subscription of 68 million dollars in the Fund and the Bank, respectively, were allotted to Denmark, and on March 31 that country formally adhered. The present membership in the Fund has thus been raised to thirty-nine, with aggregate quotas of 7,397.5 million dollars, and in the Bank to thirty-eight, with aggregate subscrip tions of 7,670 million dollars. The period for admission, on the same terms as the charter members, of the countries which attended the Bretton Woods Conference in July 1944, but did not sign the Articles of Agree ment by December 31, 1945, was extended to December 31, 1946. This concerns the Soviet Union, Australia, New Zealand, Venezuela, Haiti, and Liberia. Seven Executive Directors were elected at the meetings, in accord ance with the Articles of Agreement, to each of the two institutions (in addition to the five directors appointed in each case by the United States, the United Kingdom, France, China, and India). The individuals elected to the Executive Directorate of the Fund were from the following coun tries: Belgium, Brazil, Canada, Czechoslovakia, Egypt, Mexico, and the Netherlands. The Executive Directors elected for the Bank were from Belgium, Canada, Chile, Cuba, Greece, the Netherlands, and Poland. In the event that the Soviet Union adheres to the organizations by December 31, 1946, and thus becomes one of the “ Big Five” entitled to representa tion on the directorates of the Fund and Bank, arrangements will be made whereby India will continue to have representation on the Executive Directorate of each until the next general election of directors two years hence. It was agreed that each Executive Director or his alternate must be continuously available at the head office of the Fund and Bank. Maximum salaries of $30,000 were voted to the Managing Director of * Only twenty-seven countries signed the Bank Agreement, Colombia having adhered to the Fund but not the Bank. FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF NEW YORK 27 the Fund and the President of the Bank, $17,000 to each of the twelve Executive Directors, and $11,500 to each of their alternates. salaries are to be net after taxes. All these The salary of any Executive Director or alternate who devotes only part of his time to the business of the Fund or the Bank will be prorated. Washington was selected as the permanent headquarters of the two institutions. By-laws relating to organizational and procedural matters were also adopted at the meetings. The first meeting of the Executive Directors of the two institutions is scheduled to take place early in May. At that meeting the Managing Director of the Fund and the President of the Bank will be elected. Other matters on the agenda will include the date when operations will commence, applications for membership, applications for loans from the Bank, and recommendations regarding the selection of the Bank’s Ad visory Council. The following table shows the quotas and subscriptions of the prin cipal members of the Fund and Bank, on the basis of present membership. (In millions of dollars) Country Fund quota Bank subscription United States...................................................... United Kingdom ............................................... China .................................................................. France ................................................................ India .................................................................... Canada ................................................................ Netherlands ........................................................ Belgium .............................................................. Brazil .................................................................. Czechoslovakia .................................................. Poland ................................................................ Union of South Africa ..................................... Mexico ................................................................ Denmark ............................................................ Yugoslavia .......................................................... Chile .................................................................. Colombia ............................................................ Cuba .................................................................... Norway .............................................................. Egypt .................................................................. Greece ................................................................ All other countries ........................................... 2,750 1,300 550 450 400 300 275 225 150 125 125 100 90 68 60 50 50 50 50 45 40 144.5 3,175 1,300 600 450 400 325 275 225 105 125 125 100 65 68 40 35 Total .................................................... 7,397.5 7,670 — 35 50 40 25 107 THIRTY-FIRST ANNUAL REPORT 28 The United States Balance of International Payments W a r t im e D evelopm ents The end of hostilities in August 1945 brought to a close a period in which the balance of payments between the United States and foreign countries undoubtedly was subjected to more rapid and fundamental shifts than at any time in the financial history of the country. The year-to-year impact of the war on this country’s international financial and commercial transactions has been discussed in previous Annual Re ports. It will be recalled that the transition of the balance of inter national payments from a peacetime to a wartime basis went through two principal phases roughly corresponding to, first, the period of our neutrality when aid to the Allies was on a “ cash and carry” basis and, second, the period of lend-lease assistance. Aside from an increase in the volume of transactions, the entry of the United States into the war as a combatant had no profound effect on the balance of payments, for by that time most of the shifts had crystallized into a well defined pattern. Throughout the entire six years of war the dominant feature in the balance of payments was the unprecedentedly large surplus of merchan dise exports, reflecting the shipment of war equipment and food to the Allies. Despite a marked rise in our imports as a result of our purchases of strategic materials abroad, this country’s merchandise export surplus rose to a peak of over one billion dollars in May 1944, the month prior to the invasion of Europe, and totaled 33 billion dollars during the six years ended August 1945. In addition to the huge expansion in our net exports, the foreign trade of the United States was subject to far-reaching changes in both the character and flow of trade. Exports to the con tinental European countries virtually disappeared, while the United Kingdom, Russia, and to a lesser extent our non-European Allies, became the principal recipients of our exports— largely war supplies. On the import side, new sources of supply had to be developed to meet the demands of our war production and to compensate for the loss to the enemy of areas, chiefly in the Far East, on which we had previously relied for raw materials. Before the inauguration of the lend-lease program, the large net export of merchandise at first was accompanied in the balance of pay ments by a net gain of gold from abroad, as the Allies, particularly the United Kingdom, endeavored to finance their overseas purchases. From FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF NEW YORK 29 the end of August 1939 to the end of October 1941 (when the movement was reversed) the net gain of gold from abroad amounted to 5.7 billion dollars. This was in addition to the 3.5 billion dollars (net) of foreign gold which had been sold to the United States Treasury in the 13 months prior to the outbreak of hostilities. Toward the end of 1940 the heavy inflow of gold was supplemented by, and later supplanted by, a largescale liquidation of foreign-owned dollar assets. From the end of Sep tember 1940 to the end of February 1942, foreigners liquidated their holdings of banking funds and securities to the extent of over 700 million dollars, about half of which represented sales of American securities. To this must be added the sale of such foreign-owned business enterprises as the British-controlled American Viscose Corporation. In the second phase of the wartime balance of payments our net export of goods was offset primarily by the extension of lend-lease assistance. From the enactment of the Lend-Lease Act on March 11, 1941 through September 1945, when virtually all such assistance was terminated, a total of 44 billion dollars of goods and services was pro vided to foreign governments and an additional 2.1 billion, not charge able to foreign governments, was used to expand production facilities in the United States and for other purposes related to the lend-lease program. The British Empire received by far the largest share, amount ing to 30.3 billion dollars, or 69 per cent, of the total aid extended to foreign governments. The Union of Soviet Socialist Republics acquired the next largest amount— 10.8 billion dollars or 25 per cent of the aggre gate. The remaining 6 per cent was scattered over a large number of countries, principally France, China, the American Republics, and the Netherlands. Actual exports under the lend-lease program amounted to 32.5 billion dollars, of which 17.7 billion were in the form of munitions, 12.7 billion in industrial and agricultural products, and 2.1 billion in petroleum products. On the other hand, the United States received through June 1945 a total of 6.3 billion dollars of reverse lend-lease aid from our Allies. The bulk, or 5.9 billion dollars, was provided by the British Commonwealth of Nations. Supplementing the lend-lease program, which relieved the pressure on the remaining gold and dollar exchange resources of the United Nations, the United States Government’s wartime expenditures abroad placed sizable amounts of dollar exchange at the disposal of many foreign coun tries. According to data collected by the Clearing Office for Foreign THIRTY-FIRST ANNUAL REPORT so Transactions of the Department of Commerce, the Government spent 14.8 billion dollars abroad during the period from July 1, 1940 to Sep tember 30, 1945. These dollar disbursements, which were in addition to civilian relief as well as lend-lease assistance, included 7.6 billion for our military expenditures abroad and 7.2 billion for nonmilitary outlays— largely for the purchase of supplies and materials. Of the 14.8 billion dollar total, 6.9 billion dollars were disbursed in the British Common wealth, and 3.9 billion in the American Republics. Partially offsetting the outlays, dollar receipts (excluding reverse lend-lease aid) totaled 4.7 billion dollars during the same period. About 2.6 billion of this amount was received from the British Commonwealth. As a result of our heavy wartime expenditures abroad at a time when most war materiel was being shipped abroad on lend-lease terms and when civilian goods, for the most part, were not available for export, dollars began to accumulate in foreign accounts, thus reversing the trend in the early phase of the war. To a large extent these funds were con verted into gold which mostly remained under earmark in New York, although sizable amounts were exported. Wartime changes in foreign holdings of short-term dollar assets and estimated foreign gold reserves can be seen from the chart on page 31, which shows such holdings at the beginning of the war, in June 1941, and at the end of hostilities in August 1945. When the war began the monetary gold reserves of all foreign countries (exclusive of the U.S.S.R.) amounted to an estimated 10.8 billion dollars, compared with 16.6 billion held by the United States. The bulk, or an estimated 8.9 billion, of foreign holdings was owned by the European countries. The Latin American nations, many of whose gold reserves had been seri ously depleted in the early 1930’s, held only about 700 million dollars of gold in August 1939. Reflecting the heavy drain in the early phases of the war, the European gold reserves by the middle of 1941 had declined to about 5.7 billion dollars, indicating a reduction of nearly 40 per cent from the prewar level. On the basis of published figures the United Kingdom gold reserves alone receded from 2 billion dollars in August 1939 to 300 million at the end of 1940. Several of the neutrals also lost considerable amounts of their gold in the early part of the war, largely as the result of a flight of capital induced by fears of a German invasion. Swedish reserves declined by over 200 million dollars to 150 million during the first year of hostilities, while the Swiss gold stock was drawn FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF NEW YORK 31 Foreign Holdings of Short Term Dollar A ssets and Estimated Foreign Gold Reserves* down by about 100 million to a low of 489 million dollars. On the other hand, some increase during the period from August 1939 to June 1941 was shown in the gold reserves of non-European countries. This was due chiefly to a rise of over 100 million dollars, or about 20 per cent, in Latin American holdings and an increase from 222 million to 427 million dollars in the Union of South Africa reserves (included in the “ All Other” group in the chart). In the latter part of 1941 many countries, especially the Latin American nations and the European neutrals, began to acquire sizable amounts of gold through the conversion of their current acquisitions of dollar exchange. This gold buying program continued with little inter ruption throughout the remainder of the war, and by the end of August 1945, all foreign countries, exclusive of the Soviet Union, had built up their gold reserves to about 13.8 billion dollars, or 3 billion above the amount held at the outbreak of hostilities. Percentagewise, the largest increase during the entire war period occurred in the South African THIRTY-FIRST ANNUAL REPORT 32 reserves, which rose more than fourfold to 909 million dollars, and in the Latin American holdings, which also increased about four times to an estimated 2.8 billion dollars. Argentina, Brazil, Mexico, and Venezuela were the principal gainers in the latter group. European gold reserves, at about 8.5 billion dollars in August 1945, were about 500 million dollars below the prewar level. By August 1945 the Swiss holdings had accumu lated to 1,084 million dollars, or nearly double the August 1939 level and the largest amount on record, while the gold reserves of Sweden had risen to 479 million, or 124 million above the prewar level and also a new record high. The building up of the neutrals’ gold stocks, however, was more than offset by the wartime reduction in those of the European allied nations. Supplementing the rise in foreign holdings of gold, short-term dollar assets held by foreigners, as can be seen from the chart, increased by a net amount of 3.2 billion dollars (from 3 billion to 6.2 billion)* during the war period. Significant increases occurred in the holdings of Canada (included in the “ All Other” group on the chart) and Latin America. P ostw ar D evelopm ents Although sufficient time has not elapsed to foresee the precise pat tern of the United States balance of international payments in the post war period, by the end of 1945 there were many indications of the return of this country’s international commercial and financial transactions to a peacetime basis. This transition began immediately after V-J Day, when President Truman terminated virtually all lend-lease transfers of goods and services, except those for which arrangements calling for full or substantial down payments were completed prior to the exportation of the merchandise. Lend-lease exports dropped from a peak of more than a billion dollars a month around the time of the invasion of France, and a monthly average of about 900 million a month during the re mainder of 1944, to a monthly rate of around 500 million dollars shortly after V -E Day in May, and declined steadily after V-J Day to 75 million in October 1945. Concurrent with the reduction in lend-lease shipments, commercial exports rose steadily after V -J Day, amounting to 458 million dollars in December. As a result of this expansion in our cash export trade, together with some curtailment in the rate of * Furthermore, owing largely to a repatriation of American funds abroad, short-term claims on foreigners were reduced by 187 million dollars during the war period. FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF NEW YORK 33 importation, the latter part of 1945 witnessed a complete reversal in our merchandise trade balance— from an excess of imports over cash exports to a surplus of cash exports over imports. During November and December total commercial exports exceeded imports by nearly 300 million dollars. At the same time that the foreign needs for dollars to cover purchases here were increasing, United States Government wartime expenditures abroad were declining abruptly. The magnitude of this reduction can be seen from the fact that payments to foreign accounts effected by this bank on behalf of United States Government departments and agencies had declined to less than 40 million dollars in December 1945, as compared with a monthly average of around 100 million during the summer of 1945 and with a peak of over 200 million in January 1945. Reflecting these developments, the accumulation of dollar exchange in foreign accounts, which had been one of the dominant characteristics of the wartime balance of international payments, was halted in Novem ber, when a net “ outward” movement of slightly over 130 million dollars occurred. This appears to be the largest reported net capital “ outflow” for any month on record. There was also a noticeable shift in the inter national flow of gold in the latter part of 1945. The net loss of gold through foreign purchases here dropped from a monthly average of 110 million dollars in 1944 to about 50 million during the first nine months of 1945. The movement was reversed in October, when a 30 million dollar net gain of gold from abroad was shown. This was the first significant net gain of gold in about three years. The renewed liquidation of foreign-owned dollar assets which first became apparent toward the end of 1945 is perhaps the beginning of a large postwar export of capital (interpreting that term broadly to include the use of funds accumulated here during the war to pay for postwar purchases of goods from the United States). The primary demand upon the liquid funds which foreign countries accumulated during the war will, of course, come from the unprecedented need for capital goods for reconstruction and rehabilitation and for industrial and transportation equipment, possible during the war. the replacement of which was not Furthermore, there is a huge pent-up demand for consumers ’ goods, which this country was unable to supply during the war. Finally, following the establishment of more stable economic and political conditions abroad, there may be some repatriation of 34 THIRTY-FIRST ANNUAL REPORT private foreign funds which fled to the United States in the period of tension leading up to the war; that is, to the extent that these funds have not been requisitioned by the monetary authorities of the countries concerned. Of perhaps more importance than the “ outflow” of foreign capital will be the export of American capital in the form of foreign loans. Thus far the principal credits extended to foreign countries have come from United States Government agencies, chiefly the Export-Import Bank. On July 31, 1945 a new Export-Import Bank Act was approved, providing, among other things, for the expansion of the bank’s lending power from 700 million dollars to 3.5 billion. During the last half of 1945 new commitments of slightly over 1 billion dollars were made by the bank, as shown in the accompanying chart depicting total new commitments authorized, by type, for various periods since September 1940. Since V-J Day the credits extended by the Export-Import Bank New Commitments Authorized by Export-Import Bank, for Periods Indicated MILLIONS OF DOLLARS 10001 ------OTHER LOANS // // /////- 900 DEVELOPMENTAL LOANS TO LATIN AMERICA 800 700 600 77/77. ///// ////< • / / / ''A /,.///. /////. ////'J ////// RECONSTRUCTION LOANS /////, L E N D -LE A S E TAKE-OUT LOANS 500 400 300 200 100 0 SEP 2 6 ,’4 0 T >* O DEC 3 1 , 4 0 * 1941 1942 1943 1944 JAN 1,’4 5 JU L 1,’4 5 TO . JA, JUN 3 0 ,4 5 DEC 31/45 * Lending power of Export-Im port Bank increased from 200 to 700 million dollars, September 26, 1940. t Lending power o f Export-Im port Bank increased to 3,500 million dollars, July 31, 1945. FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF NEW YORK have been of two principal types. 35 The first, and most important, has been “ lend-lease take-out” loans designed to facilitate the financing of goods which had been requisitioned under the lend-lease program but which had not been contracted for as of Y -J Day. Of the 1 billion dollars of new commitments made during the last six months of 1945, 655 million were for three of such credits— 550 million dollars to France, 55 million to Belgium, and 50 million to the Netherlands. All carry 2 % per cent interest and are repayable over a 30 year period. A total of 15.6 million dollars had been disbursed under the Netherlands credit by the end of 1945, while neither the French nor Belgian credit had been drawn upon. The second type of Export-Import credit extended under its expand ed lending program has been for the purpose of assisting liberated foreign countries to finance the purchase of United States goods needed for reconstruction. During the second half of 1945, commitments for these “ reconstruction” loans totaled 265 million dollars. These credits, which are repayable in 30 semiannual instalments beginning 1951, in cluded 50 million dollars each to the Netherlands and Norway, 45 million to Belgium, and 20 million to Denmark. The remainder consisted of a 100 million dollar “ cotton” credit line to European countries to finance the purchase of raw cotton in the United States. In addition to the reconstruction credits granted during 1945, commitments of somewhat over 400 million dollars were reported to have been made during the first quarter of 1946. This total was made up of a 200 million dollar com mitment reportedly extended to the Netherlands, 100 million to the Netherlands East Indies, two commitments aggregating slightly over 66 million dollars to China, 35 million to Finland, and 25 million to Greece. As in the case of the “ lend-lease take-out” credits, actual disbursements under the so-called reconstruction credits have as yet been small. The remainder of the 1 billion dollars of commitments made in the last 6 months of 1945 consisted primarily of the usual “ developmental” loans to Latin American countries and credit accommodations granted to American exporters. In addition to the Export-Import Bank’s foreign lending program, sizable credits will arise from the financing of goods in the lend-lease “ pipe-line” , namely, goods which had been contracted for but not delivered prior to Y -J Day. Recipient countries are required to pay for these goods in cash or by credit, or by supplying goods and services to THIRTY-FIRST ANNUAL REPORT 36 the United States. According to the President’s recent Budget Message,, credits for this purpose, amounting to 675 million dollars, have already been extended to the Soviet Union, France, the Netherlands, and Bel gium. Credits are also being negotiated with countries that had been receiving lend-lease aid, to finance the disposition of lend-lease inven tories and installations and surplus property. None of these credits, however, will involve new expenditures by the Government; rather they represent deferred payment for goods and services provided to other countries. In addition to the loan accommodations extended during 1945, con siderably larger Government credits remained for consideration in 1946. The proposed financial agreement with the United Kingdom alone in volves 4.4 billion dollars, including 650 million to be used in final settlement of lend-lease balances. Sizable credits have also been sought by other countries, including France and Russia. As to private loans, a 100 million dollar accommodation was granted in February 1945 to the Royal Netherlands Government by a group of New York banks, secured entirely by gold held in New York. New York banks also extended a credit of 16 million dollars to Norway. Aside from these credits and participations in credits guaranteed by the ExportImport Bank, the export of capital on private account has not as yet assumed significant proportions. As conditions abroad become more attractive to foreign capital, it is expected that private American capital will again move abroad, both in the form of short and medium-term bank credit, and of portfolio and direct investments. However, a larger channel for American investments abroad is expected to develop during the coming year through the establishment of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development. When both Governmental and private loans are considered, it is probable that the postwar period will witness an export of American capital in excess of the movement which occurred after the first World War. Foreign Exchanges Although some progress was made during 1945 toward the resump tion of peacetime international trade and finance, the New York foreign exchange market, for the most part, continued in much the same state of controlled quiet which had prevailed throughout the war. Even in the case of the pound sterling activity was on a compara FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF NEW YORK 37 tively small scale. Considerable interest, however, developed in sterling exchange following the British announcement on June 30 that, as of July 2, all United States Registered Sterling Accounts and the “ Central American Sterling Accounts” of 13 Latin American countries would be converted into “ American Sterling Accounts” . Sterling in the new accounts is freely available for transfer to any other American Account, as well as for payments to residents in the sterling area. Holders of the old United States Registered Accounts were guaranteed, up to September 30, convertibility of the balances held on June 30 at the official rate of $4.02%. With this exception, the exchange guarantee at the official rate established in 1940, was withdrawn and subsequent conversions were to be made at “ the rate of the day” . Following the announcement of these changes, the spot quotation for sterling in the New York market receded to a low of about $4.02% in August and again in September, after having held at $4.03% during the first half of 1945. At the same time, the forward rate for sterling showed a marked reaction, the discount on three months’ deliveries widening in September to 8 % cents, equivalent to 8.08 per cent per annum. This compared with the forward quotation of 1 % cent discount for three months for approved commercial transactions set by the Bank of England on August 1. The rates subsequently recovered, however, and by early October the spot quotation had returned to $4.03%, which level was maintained during the remainder of the year. The forward rate also strengthened after the September reaction, the three months’ discount narrowing to as little as *4 cent early December. Also indicative of a return to more normal conditions, the British Treasury in June announced a new official buying price for gold. The new price, at 172 shillings 3 pence a fine ounce, is, at the rate of $4.03%, the equivalent of about $34.75 an ounce. A t the time of the change, the British authorities stated that the former price of 168 shillings an ounce (equivalent to about $33.89 an ounce), which had been fixed in September 1939, took into account abnormal wartime charges, including war risk insurance and possible variations in freight rates. The new price, which represented an adjustment to “ substantially reduced” shipping risks because of the end of hostilities in Europe, would, it was stated, be more closely in line with a peacetime gold shipping parity with New York. The British Treasury emphasized that the change did not indicate any alteration in policy, either with respect to exchange rates or attitude toward gold. THIRTY-FIRST ANNUAL REPORT 38 After the liberation of France, new French exchange regulations were issued in April 1945 providing for the resumption of financial relations with the United States. These regulations provided for the opening of new franc accounts by American banks with French cor respondents approved by the French Exchange Control. Although old franc accounts remained subject to previous regulations until further notice, the new free accounts (“ Comptes Etrangers Libres” ) can be credited with the proceeds of any dollar sales to the Banque de France, and with transfers from any other free account. Funds in the new accounts can be used for payments or transfers to residents’ accounts and are freely convertible into dollars. Toward the end of 1944, the French franc was fixed at a rate equiva lent to about $0.02, or virtually the same as that previously used for con version purposes by the United States Army. This rate continued until December 26, 1945, when the long-expected devaluation of the French franc was announced. On that day the French Parliament approved the Ministry of Finance’s proposal to depreciate the external value of the franc by approximately 60 per cent and to fix new official buying and selling rates for the dollar in Metropolitan France of 118.90 francs to the dollar (equivalent to $0.008410) and 119.30 francs (equivalent to $0.008382), respectively. With respect to other French territories, the new rates fixed for St. Pierre and Miquelon and French African colonies (equal to about $0.0140), and for Indo-China (equal to roughly $0.1400) represented a depreciation of only about 30 per cent. The rates for New Caledonia and French Oceania and for Lebanon-Syria remained virtually the same, vis-a-vis the dollar, as existed before the devaluation of the Metropolitan franc. As a result of rumors circulating in the New York market prior to the devaluation, there was some increased activity in French exchange; the activity subsided, however, soon after the announcement of devalua tion and New York quotations held steady at about $0.0084%, or close to the new French official rates. Devaluations occurred in a number of other European exchanges following liberation. In April 1945, the Banque Nationale de Belgique set its buying and selling rates for the dollar at 43.70 and 43.96 francs, respectively. These rates are equivalent to about $0.02288 and $0.02275 a franc or roughly 30 per cent below the prewar level. The Finnish FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF NEW YORK 39 markka has undergone three devaluations since the end of last May, and the rate at the end of the year was equivalent to about $0.0074, as com pared livith about $0.02 prior to the end of May 1945. One of the most severe depreciations occurred in the Greek drachma, which at the end of the year was quoted at the equivalent of about $0.20 per 100 drachmai and which in January 1946 declined to $0.02 per 100 drachmai; this compared with about $0.67 per 100 drachmai in May 1945. On the other hand, the rates set for Denmark and Norway after liberation are virtually the same as those existing prior to the German occupation of those countries. The so-called free rate for the Swiss franc, which fluctuated widely in the early part of 1944, became stabilized later in that year and continued to hold relatively steady during 1945. The New York rate for this exchange rose to a high of $0.2380 late in October, but subsequently reacted somewhat to close 1945 at about $0.2345-$0.2365, as compared with $0.2325-$0.2340 a year earlier. Among the Western Hemisphere exchanges, the high degree of stability, which had been apparent throughout most of the war, con tinued during 1945. The rate for the Canadian dollar in unofficial deal ings in the New York market firmed somewhat in the first half of the year to reach a high of $0.9100 in June, and closed the year at $0.9075, to show a small net appreciation for the year as a whole. On October 13 the Canadian Foreign Exchange Control Board announced that, ef fective October 15, its selling rate for United States dollars had been changed from 11 per cent premium (equivalent to U. S. $0.9009) to 10% per cent premium (equivalent to about U. S. $0.9050). The buying rate, however, remained at 10 per cent premium (U. S. $0.9090). It was also announced that the Board had made “ swap” facilities in United States dollars available to residents of Canada for financing com mercial operations involving the production and distribution of goods. The rate for “ swap” transactions was established at 3/16 of 1 per cent premium for each 30 days. Exchange rates for the various Latin American currencies were quite steady, except for some fluctuations in the “ free” rate for the Argentine peso. Moderate strength was shown in this rate during the early part of 1945, when it rose from $0.2486 in January to $0.2515 in March. A slightly easier tendency then became evident, and in the latter part of the year some pressure was reported to have developed. This pressure was attributed in part to the year-end remittance of dividends THIRTY-FIRST ANNUAL REPORT 40 and profits to the United States, and possibly also in part to a flight of capital induced by political developments. By the end of 1945 the “ free” rate for Argentine exchange had receded to $0.2468. The only other noteworthy movement in Latin American rates oc curred in the noncontrolled rate for the Uruguayan peso. This rate, after closing 1944 at $0.5425, held at about this level until July, when, following the temporary withdrawal of the Uruguayan authorities from the market, it rose abruptly to $0.5637%. A further slight rise brought the rate in October to a high of $0.5650, at which it was quoted at the end of 1945. The rates quoted in the New York market for Brazilian, Cuban, Mexican, and Venezuelan exchange continued during 1945 to maintain their previously existing levels. Foreign Relations of the Federal Reserve System Resuming the rise which occurred in 1942, 1943, and the early part of 1944, the amount of funds (dollar balances, earmarked gold, United States Government securities, and other investments) held by the Fed eral Reserve Banks for account of foreign central banks and govern ments, rose to a new high total of 6,971 million dollars in September 1945. Subsequently, however, the total receded somewhat to 6,830 mil lion at the close of the year, compared with 6,122 million at the end of 1944. The net increase for 1945 was due primarily to further increases in foreign holdings of earmarked gold and United States Government securities, both of which rose to new highs in October, and, after some decline in the latter part of 1945, showed net gains of 357 million and 694 million, respectively, for the year as a whole. Gold held under ear mark at the Federal Reserve Banks at the end of 1945 amounted to 4,294 million dollars (including about 100 million earmarked for do mestic banks as security for a foreign loan). Dollar balances, on the other hand, continued to decline from the high point of 1,650 million dollars reached in May 1944, and at the close of 1945 amounted to only 861 million dollars. The export of gold released from the earmarked holdings of foreign central banks and governments, which first became apparent in 1943, continued during 1945 but in much smaller volume than in the previous year. However, despite the smaller exports in 1945, the net increase in the amount of gold held under earmark for foreign account was also smaller than in 1944, owing to reduced purchases. FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF NEW YORK 41 Considerable progress was made during 1945 in reconverting to a peacetime basis this bank’s dealings with a number of its foreign cor respondents. A number of accounts which had been dormant for some time were reactivated during the year. Included in these were several European central bank accounts which had become inactive when the control of the funds held therein was transferred to the governments in exile. In addition, one new foreign account was opened on the books of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, acting on behalf of itself and the other Federal Reserve Banks. The Federal Reserve Banks during 1945 made a series of short term advances, secured by gold held in New York, to a Latin American central bank, the largest amount outstanding under this agreement being 12 million dollars. In addition, a short-term loan of 35 million dollars, also secured by gold here, was made to the government of a liberated European country. Steps taken by the governments of the Netherlands and Denmark toward currency reform were reflected in arrangements whereby this bank agreed to receive and hold for the account of the Netherlands Government and Danish National Bank, respectively, old Dutch and Danish currency owned in the United States which were called in by the monetary authorities of these countries. The owners of the currency are to be reimbursed by the Dutch and Danish authorities after the latter have satisfied themselves that the currency is genuine and was acquired legitimately. This bank also entered into agreements during the year with three foreign central banks to act as their agent in the purchase and sale of cable transfers payable in their currencies. Operations of the Bank in 1945 The operations of the bank remained at a very high level as long as the war continued, and showed only slight contraction after it ended. For the year as a whole, the volume of operations was fully as great as in 1944. Operations conducted by the bank as fiscal agent of the United States, which accounted for a considerable part of the great increase in the bank’s work during the war, showed little abatement on the whole, although some wartime operations were approaching completion. Despite THIRTY-FIRST ANNUAL REPORT 42 Some Measures of the Volume of Operations of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York 1945 Number of pieces handled* Discounts and advances ............................................. Currency received and counted ................................. Coin received and counted ......................................... Checks handled: United States Government checks ..................... All other ................................................................ Collection items handled: United States Government coupons paid** . . . . All other ................................................................ Disbursements as fiscal agent for Reconstruction Finance Corporation, its subsidi aries, and Commodity Credit Corporation. . Issues, redemptions, and exchanges by fiscal agency departments: United States Government direct obligations . . All other ................................................................ Safekeeping of securities: Pieces received and delivered ............................. Coupons detached ................................................ Wire transfers of funds ............................................. Incoming and outgoing mail: Registered .............................................................. Ordinary ................................................................ Amounts handled Discounts and advances ............................................... Currency received and counted ................................. Coin received and counted ......................................... Checks handled: United States Government checks ......................... All other ................................................................ Collection items handled: United States Government coupons paid** . . . . All other ................................................................ Disbursements as fiscal agent for Reconstruction Finance Corporation, its subsidi aries, and Commodity Credit Corporation. . Issues, redemptions, and exchanges by fiscal agency departments: United States Government direct obligations . . All other ................................................................ Safekeeping of securities: Pieces received and delivered (par value) . . . . Wire transfers of funds ............................................. 1944 3,000 799,990,000 1,563,245,000 2,000 803,124,000 1,474,796,000 103,989,000 237,303,000 93,956,000 231,733,000 6,529,000 1,052,000 5,716,000 1,111,000 136,000 189,000r 55,575,000 244,000 53,343,000 330,000 67,030,000 1,207,000 174,000 86,439,000r l,070,000r 167,000 766,000 12,255,000 2,324,000r 16,499,000r $20,669,069,000 5,012,660,000 154,801,000 $11,036,595,000 5,012,560,000 144,082,000 34,105,029,000 153,587,138,000 34,534,949,000 144,130,545,000 1,503,073,000 2,854,038,000 1,162,032,000 2,476,282,000 1,482,210,000 1,814,584,O O Or 180,576,687,000 2,101,136,000 140,914,520,000 2,099,760,000 582,264,216,000 63,858,021,000 488,273,437,O O Or 62,873,298,000 * Two or more checks, coupons, etc., handled as a single item are counted as one piece. * * Includes coupons from obligations guaranteed by the United States, r Revised. FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF NEW YORK 43 the fact that there were only two W ar Loans in 1945 compared with three in 1944, the volume of Government securities issued, redeemed, and ex changed during 1945 was greater than in the preceding year. Issues of Savings bonds were smaller than in 1944, largely because of one less War Loan, but partly because of a falling off in sales in interdrive months, especially in the latter part of the year. On the other hand, redemptions of Savings bonds increased substantially, and for the year as a whole were nearly double those of 1944 measured either by number of bonds or by dollar amount. One operation which was reduced drastically during 1945 was the handling of ration checks. After reaching a peak in March when 655 thousand ration checks were handled, the monthly volume was reduced by the end of the year to about 60 thousand, owing to the termination of rationing for all items except sugar. Applications received by the Foreign Funds Control Department for licenses to conduct transactions involving blocked accounts increased after the end of the war in Europe, but the “ defrosting” of blocked accounts in the latter part of the year is expected to result in a gradual reduction in the operations of this Department. As the accompanying table indicates, the work of the bank in con nection with supplying the public with currency and coin remained at a high level, but on the whole did not show as great an increase as in preceding war years. Collection work, including the handling of United States Government checks and coupons and other checks and collection items, increased further in 1945. G uaranteed W ar P r o d u c t io n a n d T e r m in a t io n L o a n s The work of the Credit Department in arranging and supervising guaranteed war production and termination loans to war contractors was in its final stages at the end of 1945. Under Executive Order No. 9112, issued March 26, 1942, the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System issued Regulation V, effective April 6, 1942, the objective of which was to facilitate and expedite war production “ by arranging for the financing of contractors, subcontractors and others engaged in busi nesses or operations deemed by the War Department, Nayy Department or Maritime Commission to be necessary, appropriate or convenient for the prosecution of the war.” Under this regulation the Federal Reserve Banks were authorized to arrange guarantees of loans made by financing THIRTY-FIRST ANNUAL REPORT 44 institutions under the Executive Order. Except in the case of loans to contractors in an exceptionally weak financial position, the financing institutions assumed some portion of the risk in each commitment, and the branch of service having the predominant interest as to dollar amount of contracts assumed the balance. Three successive forms of guarantee agreement were used throughout the “ V-loan” operation. Each of the first two (the second was merely a refinement of the first) granted the borrower rights of suspension of debt and waiver of interest payments in accordance with a formula based on the relationship of live contracts to terminated contracts. Computa tion under this arrangement proved too complex in practice, and as a consequence a third form of guarantee agreement excluding such rights was adopted after the passage of the Contract Settlement Act of 1944. A t that time statutory authority was also given for the “ T-loan” , or termination loan, the borrowing formula therein providing solely for advances against assets of the borrowers arising out of canceled war contracts. In the aggregate this bank received 1,881 applications for “ V ” , “ V T ” , and “ T ” loans which resulted in 1,332 authorized and issued guarantee agreements, the remaining applications being either declined by the Services or withdrawn by the applicants. The guarantees issued thereunder represented aggregate commitments of 4,396 million dollars, in which the guarantors (War and Navy Departments and Maritime Commission) assumed a risk of 3,776 million. As at the close of business December 31, 1945, there remained outstanding 130 “ V ” or “ V T ” guarantees covering commitments aggregating 666 million dollars in which the guarantors assumed a risk of 542 million. As at the same date there were 64 4‘ T-loans’ 9 outstanding covering commitments aggregating 23 million dollars, in which the guar antors assumed 20 million of the risk. Financial Statements Statem ent op C o n d it io n The total assets of this bank continued to increase during 1945, although at a slower rate than in the preceding year. The major factor in the increase was the continued expansion in the bank’s holdings of Government securities, which amounted to approximately 1.1 billion FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF NEW YORK 45 dollars and reflected sales by member banks to the Reserve Bank of Treasury bills under repurchase option, together with this bank’s par ticipation in purchases of Treasury securities in the market for the System Open Market Account. Discounts and advances, which represent loans to member banks, also continued to expand, although the amount shown in the year-end statement does not accurately reflect the change in member bank bor rowings during 1945 compared with the preceding year. For the year as a whole, the volume of member bank borrowings was approximately double that of 1944, and at one time during the year reached a total of 702 million dollars, the largest amount since March 1933. For the fifth consecutive year, the total reserves of the bank declined, and at the close of the year amounted to slightly over 5 billion dollars, compared with a peak of nearly 10 billion dollars at the end of 1940. However, the net outflow of funds to other parts of the country, which was the greatest single factor tending to reduce the reserves of (In thousands of dollars) Assets Dec. 31, 1945 Dec. 31, 1944 Gold certificates ................................................ Redemption fund for Federal Reserve notes $ 4,908,821 124,283 $ 5,149,403 106,731 $ 5,033,104 $ 5,256,134 Total gold certificate reserves ........ Other cash ........................................................ $ 36,867 $ 57,125 Discounts and advances ................................. $ 214,344 $ 77,775 — $ 12 Industrial loans ................................................ U. S. Government securities: Bills ............................................................ Certificates ................................................ Notes .......................................................... Bonds ........................................................ $ 3,052,191 2,098,442 531,769 237,552 $ 2,259,370 1,622,723 520,764 412,908 Total U. S. Government securities. . $ 5,919,954 $ 4,815,765 Total loans and securities ............... $ 6,134,298 $ 4,893,552 $ $ * After deducting participation of other Federal Reserve Banks amounting to ................. $11,666,274 $ 70 49* 17,759 569,682 8,894 16,460 $10,819,655 Os Total assets ....................................... 40* 17,675 420,234 8,674 15,382 OO Due from foreign banks ................................. Federal Reserve notes of other banks .......... Uncollected items ............................................. Bank premises ......................... '........................ Other assets ...................................................... 46 THIRTY-FIRST ANNUAL REPORT this bank in the preceding four years, diminished greatly in 1945, and there was a reduction also in the net loss of gold to foreign countries compared with the two preceding years. The Federal Reserve notes of this bank in circulation increased further during the past year, but in this case also the change was smaller than in the preceding year, amounting to slightly over 550 million dollars, compared with an increase of well over 1 billion dollars in 1944. Total deposit liabilities of the bank increased nearly 350 million dollars further during 1945, chiefly as a result of a 300 million dollar gain in member bank reserve balances, which reflected further growth in required reserves resulting from the continued increase in their deposits. A substantial reduction in this bank’s participation in deposit accounts carried for foreign central banks and governments was approxi mately offset by increases in Treasury deposits and in other deposits (which include accounts carried for nonmember institutions). (In thousands of dollars) Liabilities Dec. 31, 1945 Dec. 31, 1944 Federal Reserve notes ....................................... $ 5,407,924 $ 4,851,017 Deposits: Member bank—reserve account ............. U. S. Treasurer—general account .......... Foreign ...................................................... Other .......................................................... $ 4,855,437 293.764 337,584* 343.765 $ 4,554,844 175,050 466,212* 287,547 $ 5,830,550 $ 5,483,653 $ $ Total deposits ..................................... Deferred availability items ............................. Other liabilities ................................................ 236,189 1,413 319,639 1,139 $11,476,076 $10,655,448 $ 63,630 116,860 7,205 2,503 $ 59,282 84,903 7,142 12,880 Total capital accounts ..................... $ 190,198 $ 164,207 Total liabilities and capital accounts $11,666,274 $10,819,655 Ratio of gold certificate reserves to deposit and Federal Reserve note liabilities com bined .......................................................... 44.8% 50.9% Total liabilities ................................... Capital accounts: Capital paid in ......................................... Surplus (Section 7) ................................. Surplus (Section 13b) ............................. Other capital accounts ............................. * After deducting participation of other Federal Reserve Banks amounting t o ................... $ 523,414 $ 735,225 FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF NEW YORK I n co m e an d 47 D isbursem en ts Gross earnings of the bank showed a further increase of 7 million dollars during 1945, chiefly as a result of the continued growth in Government security holdings. Earnings on loans to member banks were more than double those of 1944, but continued to represent only a small part of total earnings. Net expenses increased only slightly in 1945, so that most of the increase in gross earnings was carried to net earnings. Additions to net current earnings, mainly from profits on sales of Government securities, were relatively small and showed little change from 1944. There were no important deductions other than current expenses, and net earnings amounted to well over 25 million dollars, compared with 18% million dollars in 1944. The usual 6 per cent dividend, amounting to about 3.6 million dollars, was paid to member banks, and the remainder of nearly 21.6 million was transferred to surplus. Profit and Loss Account For the Calendar Years 1945 and 1944 (In thousands of dollars) 1945 1944 $ 36,026 11,623 $ 28,993 11,445 $ 24,403 $ 17,548 $ 802 135 $ 829 133 $ 937 $ 962 Deductions from current net earnings .......... $ 3 $ 5 Total deductions ............................... $ 3 $ 5 $ 25,337 $ 18,505 66 3,627 63 21,581 $ 80 3,483 51 14,891 84,903 21,581 $ 70,012 14,891 Earnings ............................................................ Net expenses ...................................................... Current net earnings ......................... Additions to current net earnings: Profits on sales of U.S. Government securities All other .................................................... Total additions ................................... Net earnings ...................................................... Paid United States Treasury (Section 13b) . . Dividends paid .................................................. Transferred to surplus (Section 13b) .......... Transferred to surplus (Section 7) ............... Surplus (Section 7) beginning of year ........ Addition as above ............................................. 1 $ Transferred from contingent reserves: Previously charged to current net earnings Previously charged to surplus ................. Surplus (Section 7) end of year ................... 5,706 4,670 $ 116,860 — $ 84,903 48 THIRTY-FIRST ANNUAL REPORT Membership Changes in 1945 Six State banks and trust companies in the Second Federal Reserve District were admitted to membership in the Federal Reserve System during 1945. The total number of member banks in the District, however, decreased from 817 on December 31, 1944 to 814 at the end of 1945, owing to the absorption of nine member banks b y seven other member banks during the year. Member banks at the end of 1945 represented 86 per cent in number, and held about 95 per cent of the total assets, of all national banks, State banks, and trust companies in the District. Number of Member and Nonmember Banks in Second Federal Reserve District at End of Year* (Exclusive of Savings banks, Private bankers, and Industrial banks) December 31,1944 December 31,1945 Type of bank Non Non Per cent Per cent Members members members Members members members National banks .............. 551 0 100 558 0 100 State banks and trust companies . . . . 263 132 67 259 139 65 Total ......................... 814 132 86 817 139 85 * This represents only banks in actual operation. Changes in Federal Reserve Membership in Second District During 1945 Total membership beginning of year 817 Increases :f State banks and trust companies admitted . . Decreases: Member banks combined with other members Total membership end of year 814 f i n addition to figures shown in this table, one nonmember was merged into a member during the year. State Banks and Trust Companies Admitted to Membership in 1945 State banks Holland, N. Y. Raritan, N. J. Bank of Holland Raritan State Bank Trust companies Califon, N. J. Hamburg, N. Y. Paterson, N. J. Potsdam, N. Y. Hunterdon County Trust Company Bank of Hamburgh Broadway Bank & Trust Company Potsdam Bank and Trust Company Effective date October 13 January 9 January 27 January 12 September 28 March 5 FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF NEW YORK 49 Changes in Directors and Officers At a regular election in the autumn of 1945, Howard A. Wilson, President, Citizens National Bank and Trust Company of Fulton, Fulton, N. Y., was elected by member banks in Group 3 as a Class A director for a term of three years, beginning January 1, 1946, to succeed Warren W. Clute, Jr., President, Glen National Bank of Watkins Glen, Watkins Glen, N. Y., whose term expired December 31, 1945. At the same time, Carle C. Conway, Chairman of the Board and President, Continental Can Company, Inc., New York, N. Y., was reelected by member banks in Group 3 as a Class B director for a term of three years, beginning January 1, 1946. In December 1945, the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System redesignated Beardsley Ruml, Chairman, R. H. Macy & Co., Inc., New York, N. Y., as Chairman and Federal Reserve Agent of this bank for the year 1946. The Board of Governors also reappointed William I. Myers, Dean, New York State College of Agriculture, Cornell University, Ithaca, N. Y., a Class C director for a term of three years, beginning January 1, 1946, and reappointed him Deputy Chairman of this bank for the year 1946. In December 1945, the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System appointed Carl G. Wooster, farmer, of Union Hill, N. Y., a director of the Buffalo Branch, for a term of three years, beginning January 1, 1946, to succeed Gilbert A. Prole, whose term expired Decem ber 31, 1945. The directors of this bank appointed Charles H. Diefendorf, Presi dent, The Marine Trust Company of Buffalo, Buffalo, N. Y., a director of the Buffalo Branch for a term of three years, beginning January 1, 1946, to succeed Lewis G. Harriman, whose term expired December 31, 1945. Charles H. Norton, President, Erie County Trust Company, East Aurora, N. Y., was appointed by this bank a director of the Buffalo Branch for the unexpired portion of the term ending December 31, 1947, to succeed George H. Bangert, who resigned effective December 31, 1945. The directors of this bank appointed Thomas Robins, Jr., as Chair man of the Board of the Buffalo Branch for the year 1946, to succeed Gilbert A. Prole, and reappointed Insley B. Smith as Managing Director of the Buffalo Branch for the year 1946. 50 THIRTY-FIRST ANNUAL REPORT Ch anges in O fficers Frederick Stocker, Manager of the Cash Custody Department, who had been with the bank for more than twenty-five years, retired from active service on April 30, 1945. Effective April 1, 1945, the Board of Directors appointed Paul R. Fitchen, formerly Chief of the Cash Custody Division of the Cash Custody Department, a Manager, and he was assigned to succeed Mr. Stocker. Effective April 27, 1945, Norman P. Davis, formerly Manager of the Foreign Funds Control Department and of the Security Loans De partment, was appointed an Assistant Vice President. At the same time, Harold M. Wessel, formerly Chief of the Foreign Funds Control Depart ment, was appointed a Manager and assigned to the Foreign Funds Control Department. Effective July 1, 1945, Loren B. Allen, formerly Manager of the Accounting Department, was appointed an Assistant Vice President; William F. Treiber, formerly Assistant Counsel and Secretary, was ap pointed an Assistant Vice President, continuing as Secretary; and M. Monroe Myers, formerly Special Representative at the Buffalo Branch, was appointed an Assistant Cashier at the Branch. Effective January 4, 1946, Edward 0. Douglas and Herbert H. Kimball, formerly Assistant Vice Presidents, were appointed Vice Presidents; Otto W. Ten Eyck of the Building Operating unit, was appointed an Assistant Vice President; and Spencer S. Marsh, Jr., formerly engaged in special work in the Personnel Department and in the Securities Department, was appointed a Manager and assigned to the Accounting Department. Norris 0. Johnson, formerly Manager of the Research Department, who was granted a leave of absence in December 1944, to join the American Financial Mission in Iran, returned to the bank in January 1946.* James M. Rice, Vice President, who had been with the bank for twenty-eight years, and had been an officer for twenty-five years, retired from active service with the bank on January 31, 1946. M em ber of F ederal A dvisory C o u n cil In January 1946, the Board of Directors of this bank reappointed John C. Traphagen, President of the Bank of New York, New York, N. Y., to serve during the year 1946 as the member of the Federal Advisory Council for the Second Federal Reserve District. * Mr. Johnson resigned effective March 19, 1946. FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF NEW YORK 51 Directors and Officers Class Group A IS . A 2 DIRECTORS C o lt ........................................................................................ President, Bankers Trust Company, New York, N. Y. S lo a n H arry H. P ond .................................................................................... Term Expires Dec. 31 1946 1947 President, The Plainfield Trust Company, Plainfield, N. J. A 3 H ow a rd A . W i ls o n ................................................................................. President, Citizens National Bank and Trust Company of Fulton, Fulton, N. Y. B 1 D o n ald so n B r o w n .............................................................................................. 1948 1946 Vice Chairman of the Board, General Motors Corporation, New York, N. Y. B 2 C h arles E. A d am s ................................................................................................... 1947 Chairman, Air Reduction Company, Inc., New York, N. Y. B 3 C ........................................................................................ Chairman of the Board and President, Continental Can Com pany, Inc., New York, N. Y. C a r le C. C o n w a y B e a rd sle y R u m l, Chairman ............................................................................. 1948 1947 Chairman, R. H. Macy & Co., Inc., New York, N. Y. I. M yers , Deputy Chairman .................................................. Dean, New York State College of Agriculture, Cornell University, Ithaca, N. Y. C W i ll i a m C R obert D. C a l k in s ................................................................................................... 1948 1946 Dean, School of Business, Columbia University, New York, N. Y. DIRECTORS— BUFFALO BRANCH T h o m a s R ob ins, Jr., Chairman .................•.................................................................................. Term Expires Dec. 31 1946 President, Hewitt Rubber Corporation, Buffalo, N. Y. M arion B. F o l so m ................................................................................................................................ 1947 Treasurer, Eastman Kodak Company, Rochester, N. Y. C arl G. W o o s t e r ..................................................................................................................................... Farmer, Union Hill, N. Y. 1948 E lm er B. M il l im a n 1946 ............................................................................................................................. President, Central Trust Company Rochester, N. Y., Rochester, N. Y. C harles H . N orton ............................................................................................................................. 1947 President, Erie County Trust Company, East Aurora, N. Y. C harles H. D iefendorf .................................................................................................................... 1948 President, The Marine Trust Company of Buffalo, Buffalo, N. Y. I nsley B. S m ith , Managing Director ............................................................................. MEMBER OF FEDERAL ADVISORY COUNCIL J o h n C. T r a p h a g e n , President, Bank of New York, New York, N. Y. 1946 52 THIRTY-FIRST ANNU AL REPORT A lla n OFFICERS S p r o u l, President L e s lie R . R ou n d s, First Vice President Vice President J. W i l s o n J on es, Vice President H e r b e r t H . K im b a ll, Vice President L. W e r n e r K n o k e , Vice President W a l t e r S. L o g a n , Vice President, and General Counsel A r t h u r P h e la n , Edw ard 0 . D o u g la s , H a r o ld V . R o e ls e , T odd G. T ieb o u t , R ufu s J. T r im b l e , Vice President Vice President R o b e r t G. R o u se , Vice President Vice President J o h n H . W i ll i a m s , V a l e n t in e W i l l i s , Vice President R e g in a ld B. W i l t s e , Vice President Assistant General Counsel Assistant General Counsel B. A l l e n , Assistant Vice President L oren H orace L. S an fo r d , H a r o ld A . B ilb y , W i l l i a m F. S h e e h a n , Assistant Vice President Chief Examiner Assistant Vice President O t t o W . Ten E yck , F e lix T . D avis, Assistant Vice President Assistant Vice President W i l l i a m F. T re ib e r, N o r m a n P. D avis, Assistant Vice President, and Secretary H. W u r t s , Assistant Vice President Assistant Vice President John S ila s A . M i l l e r , Assistant Vice President W il l ia m W F. A b r a h a m s , Manager, Security Custody Department il l ia m A . H e in l , Manager, Personnel Department fNoRRis O. J o h n s o n , D udley H . B a r r o w s , Manager, Research Department Manager, Cash Department D a n ie l J. Liddy, C u rtis R. B o w m an , Manager, Credit Department, and Manager, Discount Department Manager, Foreign Department Spencer S. M a r s h , Jr., Manager, Accounting Department H a r r y M . B oyd, Manager, Savings Bond Redemption Department * R o b e r t H . B rom e, M ic h a e l J. M c L a u g h lin , Manager, Collection Department E. P e te r s o n , Manager, Bank Relations Department F r a n k lin Assistant Counsel, and Assistant Secretary R a lp h W . S c h e f f e r , Manager, Check Department W e s le y W . B u r t, Manager, Government Bond Department Manager, Safekeeping Department E. W e n d e ll, Manager, Government Check Department Jam es J. C a r r o l l , Manager, Planning Department R oy P a u l R . F itc h e n , Manager, Cash Custody Department M a r c u s A . H a rris, Manager, Securities Department C h a r le s N . V a n H o u te n , H a r o ld M . W e s s e l, Manager, Foreign Funds Control Department W i l l i a m H . D i l l i s t i n , General Auditor D o n a ld J. C a m e ro n , Assistant General Auditor OFFICERS— BUFFALO BRANCH B. S m ith , H a ls e y W. Managing Director Cashier In s le y Snow , G eorge J. D o l l , Assistant Cashier M . M o n r o e M y e r s, Assistant Cashier * Resigned, effective April 30, 1946 t Resigned, effective March 19, 1946