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BUSINESS CONDITIONS DIGEST JANUARY 1989 U.S. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE BUREAU OF ECONOMIC ANALYSIS U.S. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE Robert A. Mosbacher, Secretary Robert Ortner, Under Secretary for Economic Affairs BUREAU OF ECONOMIC ANALYSIS Allan H. Young, Director Carol S. Carson, Deputy Director George R. Green, Editor This report is prepared in the Statistical Indicators Division of the Bureau of Economic Analysis. (Telephone: 202-523-0800) Technical staff and their responsibilities for the publication are— Barry A. Beckman—Technical supervision and review Brian D. Kajutti—Composite indexes Mary D. Young—Data collection and compilation The cooperation of Government and private agencies that provide data is gratefully acknowledged. Agencies furnishing data are indicated in the list of series titles and sources at the back of this report. This publication is prepared under the general guidance of a technical committee consisting of the following persons: Ronald E. Kutscher, Acting Chairman, Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Department of Labor Ahmad Al-Samarrie, Office of Management and Budget John H. Auten, U.S. Department of the Treasury Frank de Leeuw, Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Department of Commerce Andrea Kusko, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System Peter M. Taylor, Council of Economic Advisers Charles A. Waite, Bureau of the Census, U.S. Department of Commerce ABOUT THIS REPORT BUSINESS CONDITIONS DIGEST (BCD) provides a monthly look at many of the economic time series found most useful by business analysts and forecasters. The original BCD, which began publication in 1961 under the title Business Cycle Developments, emphasized the cyclical indicators approach to the analysis of business conditions and prospects. The report's contents were based largely on the list of leading, roughly coincident, and lagging indicators maintained by the National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. In 1968, BCD was expanded to increase its usefulness to analysts using other approaches to business conditions analysis. Principal additions to the report were series from the national income and product accounts and series based on surveys of businessmen's and consumers' anticipations and intentions. The composite indexes were added at that time, and the report's present title was adopted. The dominant feature of the current BCD is the cyclical indicators section, in which each business cycle indicator is assigned a three-way timing classification according to its behavior at peaks, at troughs, and at all turns. This section is supplemented by a section containing other important economic measures. The method of presentation is explained in the introductory text which begins on page 1. Most of the data contained in this report also are published by their source agencies. A series finding guide and a complete list of series titles and sources can be found at the back of the report. Annual subscription price: $44.00 domestic, $55.00 foreign. Single copy price: $4.00 domestic, $5.00 foreign. Foreign airmail rates are available on request. Address correspondence concerning subscriptions to Superintendent of Documents, U.S. Government Printing Office, Washington, D.C. 20402. Make checks payable to Superintendent of Documents. Cyclical Indicators are economic time series which have been singled out as leaders, coinciders, or laggers based on their general conformity to cyclical movements in aggregate economic activity. In this report, cyclical indicators are classified both by economic process and by their average timing at business cycle peaks, at business cycle troughs, and at peaks and troughs combined. These indicators have been selected primarily on the basis of their cyclical behavior, but they also have proven useful in forecasting, measuring, and interpreting short-term fluctuations in aggregate economic activity. Other Economic Measures provide additional information for the evaluation of current business conditions and prospects. They include selected components of the national income and product accounts; measures of prices, wages, and productivity; measures of the labor force, employment, and unemployment; economic data on Federal, State, and local government activities; measures of U.S. international transactions; and selected economic comparisons with major foreign countries. BUSINESS CONDITIONS DIGEST New Features and Changes for This Issue Composite Indexes: Latest Release iii v ItCII METHOD OF PRESENTATION Seasonal Adjustments MCD Moving Averages Reference Turning Dates Part I. Cyclical Indicators Part II. Other Important Economic Measures How To Read Charts How To Locate a Series Summary of Recent Data and Current Changes 1 1 1 1 4 5 5 6 JANUARY 1989 Data Through December Volume 29, Number 1 PART I. CYCLICAL INDICATORS COMPOSITE INDEXES AND THEIR COMPONENTS Al I A2 A3 A4 Composite Indexes Leading Index Components Coincident Index Components Lagging Index Components . Chart Table 10 12 14 15 60 — — — 16 19 21 23 26 28 31 61 63 64 65 68 69 71 36 — 39 74 77 — CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS Bl B2 B3 B4 B5 B6 B7 Employmentand Unemployment Production and Income Consumption, Trade, Orders, and Deliveries Fixed Capital Investment Inventories and Inventory Investment Prices, Costs, and Profits Money and Credit DIFFUSION INDEXES AND RATES OF CHANGE Cl I C2 C3 I Diffusion Indexes Selected Diffusion Index Components Rates of Change The Secretary of Commerce has determined that the publication of this periodical is necessary in the transaction of the public business required by law of this Department. PART II. OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES NATIONAL INCOME Al A2 A3 A4 A5 A6 A7 A8 AND PRODUCT GNP and Personal Income Personal Consumption Expenditures Gross Private Domestic Investment Government Purchases of Goods and Services Foreign Trade National Income and Its Components Saving Shares of GNP and National Income Chart 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 Table 80 80 81 81 82 82 82 83 48 49 84 87 51 89 52 53 90 90 56 57 92 93 58 59 59 94 95 96 PRICES, WAGES, AND PRODUCTIVITY Bl B2 M Cl | Oj Price Movements Wages and Productivity LABOR FORCE, EMPLOYMENT, AND UNEMPLOYMENT Civilian Labor Force and Major Components GOVERNMENT ACTIVITIES Dl I D2 I Receipts and Expenditures Defense Indicators El I E2 I Merchandise Trade Goods and Services Movements Fl I F2 I F3 I Industrial Production Consumer Prices Stock Prices U.S. INTERNATIONAL TRANSACTIONS INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS PART III. APPENDIXES Business Cycle Indicators: Revised Composite Indexes Historical Data for Selected Series Experimental Data and Analyses Alphabetical Index—Series Finding Guide Titles and Sources of Series 97 104 106 108 112 Readers are invited to submit comments and suggestions concerning this publication. Address them to Business Conditions Digest, Statistical Indicators Division, Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Department of Commerce, Washington, DC 20230 NEW FEATURES AND CHANGES FOR THIS ISSUE A limited number of changes are made from time to time to incorporate recent find- REVISION OF THE COMPOSITE INDEXES ings of economic research, newly avail- The composite indexes of leading, coincident, and lagging indicators will be revised beginning with the release of January 1989 data on March 3. The revision will incorporate changes in components, updated statistical factors, and historical revisions in component data. An article presenting the revision appears on pages 97-102 of this issue. The same article is published in the January 1989 SURVEY OF CURRENT BUSINESS. Data for 1948 through June 1988 for the revised indexes and their components, plus revised statistical factors and a description of the changes in the indexes, are available on a diskette, on a printout, and on the Commerce Department's Economic Bulletin Board. To obtain an order form, technical specifications, and prices, write to the Statistical Indicators Division (BE-60), Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Department of Commerce, Washington, DC 20230 or call (202) 523-0800. able time series, and revisions made by source agencies in concept, composition, comparability, coverage, seasonal adjustment methods, benchmark data, etc. Changes may result in revisions of data, additions or deletions of series, changes in placement of series in relation to other series, changes in composition of indexes, etc. Changes in this issue are as follows: 1. The series on employment and unemployment in the civilian labor force (series 37, 42-44, 90, 91, 441, 442, 444-448, and 451-453) have been revised by the source agency from 1984 forward. These revisions reflect the application of updated seasonal adjustment factors. Further information concerning these revisions may be obtained from the U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Office of Employment and Unemployment Statistics, Division of Employment and Unemployment Analysis. (Continued on page iv.) The February issue of BUSINESS CONDITIONS DIGEST is scheduled for release on March 9. in 2. The ratio of help-wanted advertising in newspapers to number of persons to unemployed (series 60) has been revised from 1984 forward to incorporate revised data for the unemployment component. (See item 1, above.) Further information concerning this revision may be obtained from the U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis, Statistical Indicators Division. 3. The diffusion index of newly approved capital appropriations (series 965) has been revised by the source agency from 1953 forward to reflect a change in the rounding procedure. Further information concerning this revision may be obtained from The Conference Board, Inc., 845 Third Avenue, New York, NY 10022. 4. Appendix C contains historical data for series 73-76, 82, and 84. IV COMPOSITE INDEXES OF LEADING, COINCIDENT, AND LAGGING INDICATORS: DECEMBER 1988 The composite index of leading indicators increased 0.6 percent in December to 194.6 (1967=100), according to preliminary estimates released February 1 by the Commerce Department's Bureau of Economic Analysis. On the basis of more complete data, the index decreased 0.2 percent in November and increased 0.5 percent in October. A month ago, the Bureau reported estimates that showed the index decreased 0.2 percent in November and increased 0.4 percent in October. Change in inventories on hand and on order in 1982 dollars was the major contributor to the October revision. Six of 9 indicators available for December contributed to the increase in the index. They were, ordered from the largest positive contributor to the smallest: manufacturers' new orders for consumer goods and materials in 1982 dollars, stock prices, contracts and orders for plant and equipment in 1982 dollars, change in sensitive materials prices, building permits, and money supply in 1982 dollars. Two of 9 indicators made negative contributions. They were, ordered from the larger negative contributor to the smaller: average workweek and average weekly initial claims for state unemployment insurance. One indicator was unchanged: vendor performance (i.e., companies receiving slower deliveries from vendors). The composite index of coincident indicators, a monthly approximation of aggregate economic activity, increased 0.7 percent in December to 182.1 (1967=100). On the basis of more complete data, the index increased 0.1 percent in November and 1.0 percent in October. The composite index of lagging indicators increased 0.8 percent in December to 150.5 (1967=100). On the basis of more complete data, the index increased 0.9 percent in November and decreased 0.1 percent in October. The leading index is designed to predict monthly movements in aggregate economic activity, which is approximated by the coincident index. The lagging index is expected to move, after a time lag, in the same direction as the coincident index and thus to confirm the movements in the coincident index. These concepts are explained more fully in the 1984 edition of Handbook of Cyclical Indicators (price $5.50, stock number 003-010-00127-5), which is available from the Superintendent of Documents, U.S. Government Printing Office, Washington, DC 20402. More data on the composite indexes can be found on pages 10, 60, and 107 of this issue of Business Conditions Digest. A recorded telephone message on (202) 898-2450 provides information on the composite indexes and their components immediately upon their release. The message is updated weekly to include recently available data for composite index components that will be incorporated into the next release. This and other news releases are available electronically at the time of public release through the Commerce Department's Economic Bulletin Board at a nominal charge to users. For information, call (202) 377-1986. Next release date: March 3 for the January composite indexes. COMPUTER USERS: YOU AREINVITED TO TAP-IN TO OF THE U.S. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE A one-stop source for CURRENT ECONOMIC INFORMATION For access to the latest releases from the Bureau of Economic Analysis, the Bureau of the Census, the Bureau of Labor Statistics and other Federal agencies on such topics as: • • • • Gross National Product The Employment Situation Personal Income Consumer Price Index Also available are • Summaries of economic news from the Department of Commerce • Economic Indicators • Foreign trade data • Special economic studies and reports • Listings of new publications and data bases from the Office of Business Analysis, Bureau of Economic Analysis, Bureau of the Census, National Technical Information Service. The Bulletin Board number is (202) 3773870. Call using your personal computer , computer terminal, or word processor. Set the communications switches to no parity, 8-bit words, and 1 stop bit. Available 24 hours a day. Tap-in to THE ECONOMIC BULLETIN BOARD. Use the order form below to start your subscription today. (A free service limited to short bulletins is available for those who would like to try the system before subscribing. Call the bulletin board number directly for this service.) A Service of the Office of Business Analysis and Economic Affairs, U.S. Department of Commerce. For more information call (202) 377-1986. ORDER CARD YES! Please start my one year subscription to THE ECONOMIC BULLETIN BOARD. Registration fee $25.00 I understand this entitles me to two hours of connect time on the system after which I will be billed at the rate of 10 cents ($.10) per minute.* * 5 cents ($.05) per minute for nighttime (6 PM to 8:30 AM EST) and weekend use. METHOD OF PAYMENT D Enclosed is my check to NTIS for $ D Enclosed is Purchase Order No. D Charge my NTIS Deposit Account No. Charge to: Card No. Signature D American Express D VISA D MasterCard Exp. Date (Required to Validate Order) Name Organization Address City, State, 7IP NTIS will use the information you furnish on this form to process your request or order and to inform you about other NTIS products and services. The collection of this information is authorized by U.5.C. 1151-1157. Occupation Telephone Bank card and NTIS Deposit Account holders may register for immediate access by calling 703-487-4630 OR RETURN THIS FORM TO: U.S. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE National Technical Information Service 5285 Port Royal Road Springfield, VA 22161 BBC METHOD OF PRESENTATION This report is organized into two major parts. Part I, Cyclical Indicators, includes about 150 time series which have been found to conform well to broad fluctuations in comprehensive measures of economic activity. Nearly three-fourths of these are individual indicators, the rest are related analytical measures: Composite indexes, diffusion indexes, and rates of change. Part II, Other Important Economic Measures, covers over 140 series which are valuable to business analysts and forecasters but which do not conform well enough to business cycles to qualify as cyclical indicators. (There are a few exceptions: Four series which are included in part I are also shown in part II to complete the systematic presentation of certain sets of data, such as real GNP and unemployment.) The largest section of part II consists of quarterly series from the national income and product accounts; other sections relate to prices, labor force, government and defense-related activities, and international transactions and comparisons. The two parts are further divided into sections (see table of contents), and each of these sections is described briefly in this introduction. Data are shown both in charts and in tables. Most charts begin with 1962, but those for the composite indexes and their components (part I, section A) begin with 1952, and a few charts use a two-panel format which covers only the period since 1977. Except for section F in part II, charts contain shading which indicates periods of recession in general business activity. The tables contain data for only the last few years. The historical data for the various time series are contained in the 1984 Handbook of Cyclical Indicators. In addition to the charts and tables described above, each issue contains a summary table which shows the current behavior of many of the series. Appendixes present seasonal adjustment factors, measures of variability, specific cycle turning dates, cyclical comparison charts, and other information of analytical interest. An index appears at the back of each issue. It should be noted that the series numbers used are for identification purposes only and do not reflect precise relationships or order. However, all series considered as cyclical indicators are numbered in the range 1 to 199. Seasonal Adjustments Adjustments for average seasonal fluctuations are often necessary to bring out the underlying trends of time series. Such adjustments allow for the effects of repetitive intrayear variations resulting primarily from normal differences in weather conditions and from various institutional arrangements. Variations attributable to holidays are usually accounted for by the seasonal adjustment process; however, a separate holiday adjustment is occasionally required for holidays with variable dates, such as Easter. An additional adjustment is sometimes necessary for series which contain considerable variation due to the number of working or trading days in each month. As used in this report, the term "seasonal adjustment" includes trading-day and holiday adjustments where they have been made. Most of the series in this report are presented in seasonally adjusted form and, in most cases, these are the official figures released by the source agencies. However, for the special purposes of this report, a number of series not ordinarily published in seasonally adjusted form are shown here on a seasonally adjusted basis. MCD Moving Averages Month-to-month changes in a series are often dominated by erratic movements. MCD (months for cyclical dominance) is an estimate of the appropriate span over which to observe cyclical movements in a monthly series. (See appendix A.) It is the smallest span of months for which the average change in the cyclical factor is greater than that in the irregular factor. The more erratic a series is, the larger the MCD will be; thus, MCD is 1 for the smoothest series and 6 for the most erratic. MCD moving averages (that is, moving averages of the period equal to MCD) tend to have about the same degree of smoothness for all series. Thus, a 5-term moving average of a series with an MCD of 5 will show its cyclical movements about as clearly as the seasonally adjusted data for a series with an MCD of 1. The charts in this report generally include centered MCD moving averages for those series with an MCD greater than 4. The seasonally adjusted data are also plotted to indicate their variation about the moving averages and to provide observations for the most recent months. Part I. CYCLICAL INDICATORS Business cycles have been defined as sequences of expansion and contraction in various economic processes that show up as major fluctuations in aggregate economic activity—that is, in comprehensive measures of production, employment, income, and trade. While recurrent and pervasive, business cycles of historical experience have been definitely nonperiodic and have varied greatly in duration and intensity, reflecting changes in economic systems, conditions, policies, and outside disturbances. One of the techniques developed in business cycle research and widely used as a tool for analyzing current economic conditions and prospects is the cyclical indicators approach. This approach identifies certain economic time series as tending to lead, coincide with or lag behind the broad movements in aggregate economic activity. Such indicators have been selected and analyzed by NBER in a series of studies published between 1938 and 1967. During the 1972-75 period, a new comprehensive review of cyclical indicators was carried out by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) with the cooperation of the NBER research staff. The present format and content of part I of BCD are based on the results of that study. Section A. Composite Indexes and Their Components All cyclical indicators have been evaluated according to six major characteristics: Economic significance, statistical adequacy, consistency of timing at business cycle peaks and troughs, c o n f o r m i t y to business e x p a n s i o n s and contractions, smoothness, and prompt availability (currency). A formal, detailed weighting scheme was developed and used to assess each series by all of the above criteria. (See articles in the May and November 1975 issues of BCD.) The resulting Reference Turning Dates scores relate to cyclical behavior of the series The historical business cycle turning dates used during the period 1947-70. This analysis produced in this report are those designated by the National a new list of indicators classified by economic Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. (NBER). They process and typical timing at business cycle peaks mark the approximate dates when, according to and troughs. (See tables on page 2 and text below NBER, aggregate economic activity reached its relating to section B.) cyclical high or low levels. As a matter of general This information, particularly the scores relating practice, neither new reference turning dates nor to consistency of timing, served as a basis for the the shading for recessions will be entered on the selection of series to be included in the composite charts until after both the new reference peak and indexes. The indexes incorporate the best-scoring the new reference trough bounding the shaded area series from many different economic-process have been designated. groups and combine those with similar timing The historical reference turning dates are subject behavior, using their overall performance scores as to occasional reviews by NBER and may be changed weights. Because they use series of historically as a result of revisions in important economic tested usefulness and given timing characteristics time series. The dates shown in this publication (for example, leading at both peaks and troughs), for the 1948-70 time period are those determined with diversified economic coverage and a minimum by a 1974 review. Since then, NBER has designated of duplication, composite indexes give more turning points for recessions in 1973-75, 1980, and reliable signals over time than do any of the 1981-82. individual indicators. Furthermore, much of the Cross-Classification of Cyclical Indicators by Economic Process and Cyclical Timing A. Timing at Business Cycle Peaks ^v Economic N. Process Cyclical^, Timing \. LEADING (L) INDICATORS (61 series) ROUGHLY COINCIDENT (C) INDICATORS (24 series) 1. EMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT (15 series) II. PRODUCTION AND INCOME (10 series) Marginal employment adjustments (3 series) Job vacancies (2 series) Comprehensive employment (1 series) Comprehensive unemployment (3 series) Capacity utilization (2 series) Comprehensive employment (1 series) Comprehensive output and income (4 series) Industrial production (4 series) LAGGING (Lg) INDICATORS (19 series) Comprehensive unemployment (2 series) TIMING UNCLASSIFIED (U) (8 series) Comprehensive employment (3 series) IV. FIXED CAPITAL INVESTMENT (19 series) V. INVENTORIES AND INVENTORY INVESTMENT (9 series) VI. PRICES, COSTS, AND PROFITS (18 series) VII. Orders and deliveries (6 series) Consumption and trade (2 series) Formation of business enterprises (2 series) Business investment commitments (5 series) Residential construction (3 series) Inventory investment (4 series) Inventories on hand and on order (1 series) Stock prices (1 series) Sensitive commodity prices (2 series) Profits and profit margins (7 series) Cash flows (2 series) Money (5 series) Credit flows (5 series) Credit difficulties (2 series) Bank reserves (2 series) Interest rates (1 series) Consumption and trade (4 series) Business investment commitments (1 series) Business investment expenditures (6 series) III. CONSUMPTION, TRADE, ORDERS, AND DELIVERIES (13 series) Business investment expenditures (1 series) MONEY AND CREDIT (28 series) Velocity of money (2 series) Interest rates (2 series) Inventories on hand and on order (4 series) Unit labor costs and labor share (4 series) Interest rates (4 series) Outstanding debt (4 series) Sensitive commodity prices (1 series) Profits and profit margins (1 series) Interest rates (1 series) VII. Consumption and trade (1 series) Business investment commitments (1 series) III. IV. FIXED CAPITAL INVESTMENT (19 series) V. INVENTORIES AND INVENTORY INVESTMENT (9 series) VI. PRICES, COSTS, AND PROFITS (18 series) Inventory investment (4 series) Stock prices (1 series) Sensitive commodity prices (3 series) Profits and profit margins (6 series) Cash flows (2 series) Money (4 series) Credit flows (5 series) Credit difficulties (2 series) Profits and profit margins (2 series) Money (1 series) Velocity of money (1 series) Unit labor costs and labor share (4 series) Velocity of money (1 series) Bank reserves (1 series) Interest rates (8 series) Outstanding debt (4 series) B. Timing at Business Cycle Troughs N. Economic NV Process Cyclical^ Timing N. 1. EMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT (15 series) II. PRODUCTION AND INCOME (10 series) Marginal employment adjustments (1 series) Industrial production (1 series) Orders and deliveries (5 series) Consumption and trade (4 series) Formation of business enterprises (2 series) Business investment commitments (4 series) Residential construction (3 series) Marginal employment adjustments (2 series) Comprehensive employment (4 series) Comprehensive output and income (4 series) Industrial production (3 series) Capacity utilization (2 series) Consumption and trade (3 series) Business investment commitments (1 series) Orders and deliveries (1 series) Business investment commitments (2 series) Business investment expenditures (7 series) LEADING (L) INDICATORS (47 series) ROUGHLY COINCIDENT (C) INDICATORS (23 series) LAGGING (Lg) INDICATORS (41 series) Job vacancies (2 series) Comprehensive employment (1 series) Comprehensive unemployment (5 series) TIMING UNCLASSIFIED (U) (1 series) CONSUMPTION, TRADE, ORDERS, AND DELIVERIES (13 series) Inventories on hand and on order (5 series) MONEY AND CREDIT (28 series) Bank reserves (1 series) independent measurement error and other "noise" in the included series are smoothed out in the index as a whole. The indexes include only monthly series that are acceptable in terms of relatively prompt availability and reasonable accuracy. The main composite indexes are distinguished by their cyclical timing. Thus, there is an index of leading indicators, series which historically reached their cyclical peaks and troughs earlier than the corresponding business cycle turns. There is an index of roughly coincident indicators, consisting of series which historically reached their turning points at about the same time as the general economy, and an index of lagging indicators, which includes series that typically reached their peaks and troughs later than the corresponding business cycle turns. The leading index contains series with long as well as short leads, but each series leads on the average over time and shows a frequency of leads at the individual turns exceeding that attributable to chance, given the historical distribution of cyclical timing. (An analogous statement applies to the components of the lagging index.) Since 1948, leads were generally more frequent and longer at peaks than at troughs of business cycles, while lags were generally more frequent and longer at troughs than at peaks. The adopted system of scoring and classifying the indicators takes into account these w e l l - e s t a b l i s h e d d i f f e r e n c e s in timing. Consequently, rough coincidences include short leads (-) and lags ( + ) as well as exact coincidences (0). (For monthly series, the range is from -3 through +1 at peaks and from -1 through +3 at troughs, where minus denotes leads and plus denotes lags in months.) indicators to the index of lagging indicators, a series known to have a useful pattern of early cyclical timing. Numbers entered on the charts of the composite indexes show the length, in months, of leads (-) and lags (+) at each of the reference turning dates covered. The next set of data consists of series included in the principal composite indexes. These are the 11 components of the leading index, the 4 components of the coincident index, and the 6 components of the lagging index. Following the title of each series, its typical timing is identified by three letter symbols in a small box. The first of these letters refers to the timing of the given indicator at business cycle peaks, the second to its timing at business cycle troughs, and the third to its timing at all turns, i.e., at peaks and troughs combined. "L" denotes a tendency to lead, "C" a tendency to roughly coincide with the business cycle turns (as represented by the NBERdesignated reference dates), and "Lg" a tendency to lag. Since these series have been selected for the consistency of their timing at peaks and troughs, all but one component of the leading index are denoted "L,L,L," all components of the coincident index "C,C,C," and all components of the lagging index "Lg,Lg,Lg." It should be remembered that these classifications are based on limited evidence, namely the performance of the indicators during the business cycles of the 1948-70 period, which included five peaks and five troughs. While the timing classifications are expected to agree with the patterns prevailing in the near future, they will not necessarily hold invariably in every instance. The timing of the series in the period since 1970 can be determined by inspection of the charts, where the recessions of 1973-75, 1980, and 1981-82 are shaded according to the dates of the NBER reference cycle chronology. August '57, April '60, and December '69); crossclassification B, on their behavior at five business cycle troughs (October '49, May '54, April '58, February '61, and November 70). Each tabulation distinguishes seven major economic processes and four types of cyclical timing. The titles in the cells identify subgroups of the given economic process with the given timing characteristic. The number of series in each such group is given in parentheses following the title. Complete information on how individual indicators are classified by timing at peaks, troughs, and all turns, along with selected measures and scores, is provided in the 1984 Handbook of Cyclical Indicators. Section C. Diffusion Indexes and Rates of Change Many series in this report are aggregates compiled from numerous components. How the individual components of an aggregate move over a given timespan is summarized by a diffusion index which indicates the percentage of components that are rising (with half of the unchanged components considered rising). Cyclical changes in these diffusion indexes tend to lead those of the corresponding aggregates. Since diffusion indexes are highly erratic, they are computed from changes measured over 6- or 9-month (or 3- or 4-quarter) spans, as well as 1-month (or 1-quarter) spans. Longer spans help to highlight the trends underlying the shorter-term fluctuations. Diffusion indexes are shown for the component series included in each of the three composite indexes and for the components of some of the aggregate series shown in section B. Diffusion measures can be derived not only from For purposes of constructing a composite index, actual data but also from surveys of anticipations each component series is standardized: The monthor intentions. Indexes based on responses of to-month percent changes in a given series are business executives about their plans and divided by the long-run average (without regard to Section B. Cyclical Indicators by Economic Process expectations for several operating variables are sign) of those changes. Thus, the more volatile presented, along with the corresponding indexes series are prevented from dominating the index. This section covers 112 individual time series, based on actual data, as the last set of diffusion The coincident index is calculated so that its long- including the 21 indicators used in the series. term trend (since 1948) equals the average of the construction of the composite indexes. The peak This section also records rates of change for the trends of its four components. This trend, which is and trough timing classifications are shown on the three composite indexes (leading, coincident, and similar to that of GNP in constant dollars, can be charts in the same manner as described above, but lagging) and for four indicators of aggregate viewed as a linear approximation to the secular this section includes series with different timing at economic activity: GNP in constant dollars movement (at an average growth rate) in aggregate peaks and at troughs, as well as series where the (quarterly), industrial production, employee hours economic activity. The indexes of leading and lag- timing is not sufficiently consistent to be classified in nonagricultural establishments, and personal ging indicators have been adjusted so that both as either L,C, or Lg according to the probabilistic income less transfers in constant dollars. Rates of their trends and their average month-to-month measures and scoring criteria adopted. Such series change are shown for 1- and 3-month spans or for percent changes (without regard to sign) are ap- are labeled U, i.e., unclassified as to timing at 1-quarter spans. proximately equal to those of the coincident index. turning points of the given type. Eight series are Although movements in diffusion indexes and in (For a more detailed description of the method of unclassified at peaks, one series at troughs, and 18 rates of change for the same aggregates are constructing the composite indexes, see the 1984 series at ail turns (of the 18, 14 have definite but generally positively correlated, these two measures Handbook of Cyclical Indicators.) different timing at peaks and at troughs). No series present information about two related but distinct In addition to these principal composite indexes, that is classified as U both at peaks and at troughs aspects of economic change. Diffusion indexes differentiated according to cyclical timing, there is included in the list of cyclical indicators. measure the prevailing direction or scope of are other indexes based on leading indicators that The classification scheme which groups the change, while rates of change measure the degree have been grouped by economic process. Taken indicators of this section by economic process and as well as the overall direction. As is the case for together, these additional indexes include many cyclical timing is summarized in the two diffusion indexes, cyclical movements in the rates component series of the overall leading index, plus tabulations on page 2. Cross-classification A is of change tend to lead those of the corresponding a few related series. Also shown in this section is based on the observed behavior of the series at five indexes or aggregates, and thus, they tend to lead the ratio of the index of roughly coincident business cycle peaks (November '48, July '53, at the business cycle turns as well. Gross private domestic investment (A3) is fixed Section C. Labor Force, Employment, and capital goods purchased by private business and Unemployment nonprofit institutions and the value of the change This section contains measures of the civilian This part is divided into six sections which cover in the physical volume of inventories held by labor force and its major components: Total private business. The former include all private a wide range of quarterly and monthly time series numbers of employed and unemployed persons. measuring various aspects of economic activity. purchases of dwellings, whether purchased for The number of unemployed is subdivided into tenant or owner occupancy. Net purchases of used Some of these series are very comprehensive, selected categories defined by sex, age, and class pertaining to the U.S. economy as a whole, others goods are also included. Government purchases of goods and services of worker. Also included are data on participation have to do with particular sectors or markets, and (A4) is the compensation of government employees rates for a few principal segments of the labor still others relate to U.S. international transactions and purchases from business and from abroad. It force. or to selected foreign countries. The represented variables include incomes, outputs, and excludes transfer payments, interest paid by Section D. Government Activities expenditures; prices, earnings, and productivity; government, and subsidies. It includes gross Receipts, expenditures, and their balance (surl a b o r r e s o u r c e s ; g o v e r n m e n t r e c e i p t s , investment by government enterprises but excludes expenditures, and defense-related activities; ex- their current outlays. It includes net purchases of plus or deficit) are shown quarterly on two levels: ports and imports; and selected indicators for a few used goods and excludes sales and purchases of (1) Federal Government and (2) State and local land and financial assets. government. Also shown is a selection of series key foreign countries. Net exports of goods and services (A5) is exports from the discontinued Defense Indicators. less imports of goods and services. Exports are part These series measure defense activities which Section A. National Income and Product of the national production; imports are not, but are influence short-term changes in the national The national income and product accounts, included in the components of GNP and are economy. Included are series relating to compiled by BEA, summarize both receipts and therefore deducted. More detail on U.S. obligations, contracts, orders, production, final expenditures for the personal, business, international transactions is provided in section E. shipments, inventories, outlays, and employment. foreign, and government sectors of the economy. National income (A6) is the incomes that These series are grouped according to the time at Section Al shows the gross national product, originate in the production of goods and services which the activities they measure occur in the final sales, and personal and disposable personal attributable to labor and property supplied by defense order-production-delivery process. Series income. The four major components of the gross residents of the United States. Thus, it measures measuring activities which usually precede pron a t i o n a l p r o d u c t — p e r s o n a l c o n s u m p t i o n the factor costs of the goods and services production, such as contract awards and new orders, expenditures, gross private domestic investment, duced. It consists of the compensation of are classified as "advance measures of defense government purchases of goods and services, and employees, proprietors' income, rental income of activity." Series measuring activities which tend to net exports of goods and services—are presented in persons, corporate profits, and net interest. coincide with production, such as employment, and sections A2 through A5. Most of the series in Saving (A7) is the difference between income activities which usually follow production, such as section A are presented in current as well as and expenditures during an accounting period. shipments, are classified as "intermediate and final constant dollars. There are also a few per capita Total gross saving includes personal saving, measures of defense activity." series. The national income and product accounts, business saving (mainly undistributed corporate briefly defined below, are described more fully in profits and capital consumption allowances), and Section E. U.S. International Transactions the Survey of Current Business, Part I, government surplus or deficit. January 1976. This group includes monthly series on exports Shares of GNP and national income (A8).—The Gross national product (GNP) is the market m a j o r e x p e n d i t u r e c o m p o n e n t s of GNP (excluding military aid) and general imports, plus a value of final goods and services produced by the (consumption, investment, etc.) are expressed as few selected components of these aggregates. Also labor and property supplied by residents of the percentages of GNP, and the major income shown are the balances between receipts and United States, before deduction of allowances for components of national income (compensation of expenditures for goods and services, merchandise, the consumption of fixed capital goods. It is the employees, corporate profits, etc.) are expressed as and investment income. most comprehensive measure of aggregate percentages of national income. Section F. International Comparisons economic output. Final sales is GNP less change in business inventories. Personal income is the income received by This section is designed to facilitate a quick persons (individuals, owners of unincorporated Section B. Prices, Wages, and Productivity review of basic economic conditions in six of the businesses, nonprofit institutions, private trust nations with which we have important trade funds, and private noninsured welfare funds) from The important data on price movements include relationships. The U.S. business cycle shading has all sources. It is the sum of wage and salary the monthly consumer and producer price indexes been omitted from these charts. Data on industrial disbursements, other labor income, proprietors' and their major components. Based largely on production, consumer prices, and stock prices for income, rental income of persons, dividends, these series are the quarterly price indexes from Canada, the United Kingdom, France, West Gerpersonal interest income, and transfer payments, the national income and product accounts, notably many, Japan, and Italy are compared with the corless personal contributions for social insurance. the GNP implicit price deflator (with weights responding U.S. series. Also included is an inDisposable personal income is the personal reflecting the changing proportions of different dustrial production index for the European income available for spending or saving. It consists expenditure categories in GNP) and the fixed- countries in the Organization for Economic of personal income less personal taxes and nontax weighted price index for the gross business prod- Cooperation and Development (OECD). The inpayments to government. uct. Data on both levels and percent changes are dustrial production series provide cyclically sensitive output measures for large parts of the Personal consumption expenditures (A2) is presented for the period since 1977 The group of series on wages and productivity economies covered. Changes in consumer price ingoods and services purchased by individuals, operating expenses of nonprofit institutions, and consists of data on average hourly earnings and dexes (plotted for the period since 1977) provide the value of food, fuel, clothing, rent of dwellings, average hourly compensation (including earnings important measures of the rates of inflation in the and financial services received in kind by in- and other benefits) in current and constant dollars, major industrialized countries. Stock prices (also dividuals. Net purchases of used goods are also in- output per hour of work in the business sector, and shown beginning in 1977) tend to be significant as leading indicators. rates of change for most of these measures. cluded. Part II. OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES 4 HOW TO READ CHARTS Peak (P) of cycle indicates end of expansion and beginning of recession (shaded area) as designated by NBER. Basic Data Arabic number indicates latest month for which data are plotted. ("9" = September) Solid line indicates monthly data. (Data may be actual monthly figures or moving averages.) Dotted line indicates anticipated data. Broken line indicates actual monthly data for series where a moving average is plotted. Roman number indicates latest quarter for which data are plotted. ("IV" = fourth quarter) Solid line with plotting points indicates quarterly data. Parallel lines indicates a break in continuity (data not available, extreme value, etc.). Diffusion Indexes Solid line indicates monthly data over 6- or 9-month spans. Broken line indicates monthly data over 1-month spans. Various scales are used to highlight the patterns of the individual series. "Scale A" is an arithmetic scale, "scale L-1" is a logarithmic scale with 1 cycle in a given distance, "scale L-2" is a logarithmic scale with two cycles in that distance, etc, Arabic number indicates latest month for which data are used in computing the indexes. Broken line with plotting points indicates quarterly data over 1-quarter spans. Roman number indicates latest quarter for which data are used in computing the indexes. Solid line with plotting points indicates quarterly data over various spans. Diffusion indexes and rates of change are centered within the spans they cover. Trough (T) of cycle indicates end of recession and beginning of expansion as designated by NBER. Rates of Change Solid line indicates percent changes over 3- or 6-month spans. Broken line indicates percent changes over 1-month spans. Solid line with plotting points indicates percent changes over 3- or 4-quarter spans. Dotted line indicates anticipated quarterly data over various spans. Arabic number indicates latest month used in computing the changes. Broken line with plotting points indicates percent changes over 1-quarter spans. Roman number indicates latest quarter used in computing the changes. HOW TO LOCATE A SERIES 1. See ALPHABETICAL INDEX-SERIES FINDING GUIDE at the back of the report where series are arranged alphabetically according to subject matter and key words and phrases of the series titles, or- 2. See TITLES AND SOURCES OF SERIES at the back of the report where series are listed numerically according to series numbers within each of the report's sections. Summary of Recent Data and Current Changes for Principal Indicators Basic data 2 Series title and timing classification Unit of measure 1 Percent change Annual average 1987 2dQ 1988 1988 4th Q 1988 3dQ 1988 Oct. 1988 Nov. 1988 Nov. to Dec. 1988 Oct. Dec. 1988 to Nov. 1988 3dQ to 4th Q 1988 2dQ to 3dQ 1988 Series number 1 Table 1. 1. CYCLICAL INDICATORS Al. Composite Indexes 910. 920 930. 940. Eleven leading indicators Four roughly coincident indicators Six lagging indicators Ratio, coincident index to lagging index L,L,L... 1967 = 100 do CCC. do Lg,Lg,Lg.... do L,L,L... Leading Indicator Subgroups: 914. Capital investment commitments 915. Inventory investment and purchasing 916. Profitability 917 Money and financial flows L,L,L... L,L,I L,L,L-... L,L,L... do do do do 189.4 169.7 142.4 119.2 192.5 177.9 147 .2 120.8 NA NA 105.8 NA NA 106.3 121.7 145.8 192.3 176.7 146.7 120.4 192.8 178.7 147.8 120.9 NA NA 105 .7 119.5 151.2 105 .5 41.1 3.9 305 41.1 3.9 298 0.701 158 193.9 193.7 181.2 149.2 121.4 180.7 147.9 122.2 NA 105.2 193.4 180.8 149.3 121.1 194.6 182 .1 150.5 121.0 NA NA NA NA 104.9 105 .6 -0.2 NA NA NA NA 146.9 146.6 NA NA 41.1 41.1 41.2 41.2 41.0 3.9 302 3.9 293 4.0 282 3.9 291 0.704 0.701 0.727 0.735 0.716 158 157 160 161 158 NA 0.9 -0.9 105 .1 NA 149.3 -0.2 0. 1 -0.2 0.6 0.7 0.8 -0.1 NA 0.7 NA NA 0.3 1. 1 0.7 0.4 NA -0.2 NA -1.3 0.6 1 .4 0.9 0.4 910 920 930 940 NA -0.3 NA NA 914 915 916 917 B. Cyclical Indicators by Economic Process Bl. Employment and Unemployment Marginal Employment Adjustments: *1. Average weekly hours, mfg 21. Average weekly overtime hours, mfg.3 *5. Average weekly initial claims (inverted 4 ) Job Vacancies: 60. Ratio, help-wanted advertising to unemployment 3 46. Help-wanted advertising in newspapers L,L,L.... Hours do L,C,L... L,C,L... Thousands 41.0 3.7 320 3.9 305 0. -0.5 -0.1 -3.2 0. 0. 0. -4.8 -1.3 0 . 7 3 1 -0.019 161 -1.9 0.015 - 0 . 0 0 3 -0.6 1.9 0. 0. 3.0 1 21 5 0.026 1.9 60 46 L,Lg,U.... Ratio L,Lg,U.... 1967 = 100 0.615 U.C.C.... A.r., bil. hrs U,C,C.... Millions do C,C,C,... L,C,U.... Thousands 190.14 109.23 102.31 24,784 197 . 16 111.80 106.04 25,564 196.52 111.55 105 .61 25 , 4 9 8 198.02 112.08 106.48 25 , 6 5 0 199.60 112 .62 107.34 25 , 8 2 7 199.95 112.34 106.97 25,743 198.88 112.71 107.38 25,844 199.98 112.82 107.66 25,893 -0.5 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.8 0.5 0.8 0.6 0.8 0.5 0.8 0.7 48 42 41 40 60.77 61 .54 61.46 61.59 61.79 61.69 61.85 61.83 0.16 -0.02 0.13 0.20 90 7,425 6,701 5 .5 6,664 6,678 6,545 6,554 5.3 2.0 -0.7 -0.1 0.1 0.1 -0.2 5.3 1.9 6,518 5 .3 6,563 5.5 2.1 2.0 0.2 0.2 4.4 0.1 37 43 45 91 44 0 .5 50 52 Comprehensive Employment: 48. Employee hours in nonagriculturai establishments 42. Persons engaged in nonagriculturai activities *41. Employees on nonagriculturai payrolls 40. Employees in goods-producing industries 90. Ratio, civilian employment to population of working age3 U,Lg,U.... Percent Comprehensive Unemployment: 37. Number of persons unemployed (inverted 4 ) 43. Unemployment rate (inverted 4 ) 5 45. Avg. weekly insured unemployment rate (inv. 4 ) 3 *91. Average duration of unemployment (inverted4) 44. Unemployment rate, 15 weeks and over (inv.4)3 L,Lg,U.... L,lg,U.... L,Lg,U.... Lg,Lg,Lg.... Lg,lg,Lg.... Thousands Percent do Weeks °ercent 153 2.1 5.5 2.1 1.9 5.4 1.9 14.5 13.5 13.5 13.5 12.9 13.4 12 .6 12.8 1.7 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.2 1.3 1.2 1.2 6.2 2.4 0. 6.0 0.1 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.7 0.6 0.7 -0.1 -1.6 B2. Production and Income Comprehensive Output and Income: 50 Gross national product in 1982 dollars 52. PersonaMncome in 1982 dollars *51. Personal income less transfer payments in 1982 dollars 53. Wages and salaries in 1982 dollars, mining, mfg., and construction 3 8 4 7 .0 3 9 9 5 .0 3 9 8 5 .2 4 0 0 9 .4 4 0 2 9 .2 C C C A r , bil. dol C.C.C.... ..'..'.'....do....'''... 3 1 6 3 . 5 3 2 6 3 . 5 3 2 4 6 . 5 3 2 6 9 . 0 3 3 0 4 . 9 3 3 0 5 . 5 3 2 9 3 . 8 3 3 1 5 . 3 C,C,C.... do do C,C,C.... Industrial Production: *47. Industrial production 73. Industrial production, durable mfrs 74. Industrial production, nondurable mfrs 49 Value of goods output in 1982 dollars C,C,C.... 1977 = 100 do C,C,C.... do C,L,I C,C,C.... A.r., bil. dol Capacity Utilization: 82 Capacity utilization rate mfg3 84. Capacity utilization rate, materials 3 L C,U .. Percent do L,C,U.... -0.4 1.1 2 7 0 4 . 1 2 7 9 2 . 8 2 7 7 6 .1 2 7 9 9 . 0 2 8 3 4 . 0 2 8 3 5 . 0 2 8 2 2 . 7 2 8 4 4 . 3 -0.4 0.8 0.8 1.3 51 -0.6 -0.1 0.7 1.0 53 0.3 0.3 0.3 1.8 1.6 1.9 0.4 1.0 1.2 1.2 0. 1 47 73 74 49 0.3 0.5 82 84 6 7 567.6 570.0 566.6 566.1 129.8 139.8 137.2 138.4 136.0 133.1 143.3 141.0 145 .0 141.9 136.8 145.0 146.8 142.3 143.9 1 6 6 3 . 3 1 7 6 2 . 4 1 7 6 2 . 4 176 8. 9 1 7 7 0 . 3 139.3 144.4 146.6 139.8 145.0 146.7 140.2 145.5 147.1 544.8 560.4 558.1 561.8 0.4 0.4 0.1 84.4 85 .0 0. 0.5 0.1 0. 0.8 1.3 107 . 7 2 119.40 119.22 119.41 125 .53 1 2 2 . 7 9 1 2 2 . 9 4 1 3 0 . 8 5 9 8 . 2 6 104.66 105 .15 1 0 4 . 2 0 1 0 8 . 3 9 1 0 6 . 5 9 106.08 112.51 0.1 6.4 6.1 0.2 5 .1 -0.5 -0.9 4.0 81.0 80.5 83.5 83.7 83.2 83.0 84.0 84.3 84.3 84.8 84.3 84.5 84.3 85.0 83. Consumption, Trade, Orders, and Deliveries Orders and Deliveries: 6 Mfrs ' new orders, durable goods 7. Mfrs.' new orders in 1982 dollars, durable goods *8. Mfrs.' new orders in 1982 dollars, consumer goods and materials 25. Change in mfrs.' unfilled orders, durable goods96. Mfrs.1 unfilled orders, durable goods5 *32. Vendor performance, slower deliveries 3 (u) Consumption and Trade: 56. Manufacturing and trade sales *57. Manufacturing and trade sales in 1982 dollars 75. Industrial production, consumer goods 54. Sales of retail stores 59. Sales of retail stores in 1982 dollars 55 Personal consumption expenditures, automobiles 58. Index of consumer sentiment (u) L,L,L... Bil. dol do L,L,L... 84.56 87 .21 8 7 . 1 5 8 6 . 9 0 9 0 . 1 2 8 7 . 8 8 8 9 . 5 2 9 2 . 9 7 do L,L,L... 3.04 6.38 2.50 3.07 4.62 4.35 3.79 4.59 do L,L,L... L,Lg,U... Bil. dol., EOP ... 4 0 0 . 7 2 4 4 6 . 16 4 2 3 . 1 6 4 3 2 . 3 8 4 4 6 . 16 4 3 6 . 7 3 4 3 9 . 7 8 4 4 6 . 1 6 61 64 56 66 66 56 57 60 L,L,L... Percent C,C,C. C,C,C. C,L,C C,L,U U,L,U L,C,C... L,L,L... Bil. dol do. 1977 = 100. Bil. dol .do. A.r., bil. dol I Q 1966 = 100. NA 451.38 NA 435.39 127.8 133.8 125.88 134.33 113.51 117 .45 130.0 138.3 90.6 93.7 482 .81 449 .78 132.5 132.72 117.11 139.8 93.6 493.38 NA 451.62 NA 134.7 136.8 134.48 137.46 117.42 118.95 139.2 140 .4 96.0 93.0 501.91 456.32 136.7 136.56 118.23 94.1 503.84 NA 457 . 2 3 NA 137.2 136.5 1 3 7 . 8 1 138.02 1 1 9 . 3 2 119.30 1.9 3.9 -1.31 3.34 -0.3 -1.55 1.52 1.5 0 2.2 0 3.2 _9 NA NA 0.5 0.2 0. 2.2 0.4 1.7 1.3 0.3 NA NA 1.6 2.2 1.3 0.9 2.6 -3.1 56 57 75 54 59 55 58 0.2 2.9 0.2 NA 12 13 0.7 -4 0.4 0.2 -0.1 0.9 0.9 -1.2 91.9 -1.2 123.2 53,675 123.9 -1.1 -5.1 0.6 NA 93.0 3.7 8 25 96 32 B4. Fixed Capital Investment Formation of Business Enterprises: 12. Net business formation 13. New business incorporations Business Investment Commitments: 10. Contracts and orders for plant and equipment *20. Contracts and orders for plant and equipment in 1982 dollars 24. Mfrs.' new orders, nondefense capital goods 27. Mfrs.' new orders in 1982 dollars, nondefense caoital eoods L,L,L... 1967 = 100 L,L,L... Number 121.2 57 ,087 123.8 123.4 NA 5 6 , 0 3 6 123.6 57 , 6 8 4 123.9 124.6 NA 5 6 , 5 5 7 NA 34.69 39.33 38.00 41.15 40.51 38.45 39.92 43.16 3.8 8.1 8.3 -1.6 10 L,L,L. L,L,L... do do 38.66 29.66 44.39 34.93 43.66 33.58 46.32 36.63 44.85 36.33 43.35 34.62 44.40 35.78 46.79 38.58 2.4 3.4 5.4 7.8 6.1 9.1 -3.2 -0.8 20 24 LL.L... do. 34.28 40.68 39 .91 42.53 41.36 40.16 40.95 42.97 2.0 4.9 6.6 -2.8 27 L,L,L... Bil. dol Table 1. Summary of Recent Data and Current Changes for Principal Indicators—Continued Basic data 2 Series title and timing classification 1 of Percen change 1 Annual average 1987 Oct. 1988 2dQ 3dQ 4th Q 1988 1988 1988 Nov. 1988 Oct. 1988 Dec. 1988 Dec. 2dQ to 3dQ 3dQ to 4th Q 1988 1988 1988 Nov. to to Nov. 1988 1. CYCLICAL INDICATORS-Con. B4. Fixed Capital Investment— Con. Business Investment Commitments— Con.: 9. Construction contracts awarded for commercial and industrial buildings, floor space L,C,U.... Mil. sq. ft 11. Newly approved capital appropriations, mfg U,Lg,U.... Bil. dol 5 97. Backlog of capital appropriations, mfg. C,Lg,lg.... Bil. dol., EOP ... Business Investment Expenditures: 61. Expenditures for new plant and equipment 69. Mfrs.' machinery and equipment sales and business construction expenditures 76. Industrial production, business equipment 86. Nonresidential fixed investment in 1982 dollars 80.73 29.79 78.06 75.34 NA NA Clg,lg.... A.r., bil. dol 3 8 9 . 6 7 430.17 C,Lg,Lg.... do C,Lg,U.... 1977 = 100 C,Lg,C.... A.r., bil. dol 404.67 144.5 445.1 NA 157.4 487.2 1,620 123.0 195.2 1,487 115.7 192.1 Residential Construction Commitments and Investment: 28. New private housing units started *29. Building permits, new private housing units 89. Residential fixed investment in 1982 dollars L,L,L... A.r., thousands .. L,L,L... 1967 = 100 L,L,L... A.r., bil. dol 71.76 40.69 87.46 77.86 39 .09 92.55 73.33 NA NA 69.59 68.60 81.80 -1.4 19.2 426 . 9 4 4 3 6 . 0 1 4 4 5 . 7 3 448.51 457.93 156.5 160.1 490.2 495.0 1,481 116.4 189.6 NA 4 6 0 . 8 7 160.6 159.9 490.4 1,468 113.7 191.6 1,538 122.2 197.4 29.2 8.5 5.8 NA NA 9 11 97 2.1 2.2 61 2.1 2.3 1.0 NA 0.3 69 76 86 -3.9 1,533 120.9 459.02 160.9 1,558 120.9 NA 161.1 1,524 124.9 -0.4 0.6 1.6 0. NA 0.1 -2.2 3.3 -0.9 -2.3 1.1 -5.8 -0.9 4.8 7.5 3.0 28 29 89 B5. Inventories and Inventory Investment Inventory Investment: 30. Change in business inventories in 1982 dollars 3 *36. Change in mfg. and trade inventories on hand and on order in 1982 dollars (smoothed 6 ) 3 31. Change in mfg. and trade inventories 3 38. Change in mfrs.' inventories, materials and supplies on hand and on order 3 Inventories on Hand and on Order: 71 Mfg and trade inventories 5 70. Mfg. and trade inventories in 1982 dollars 5 65. Mfrs.' inventories, finished goods5 *77. Ratio, mfg. and trade inventories to sales in 1982 dollars 3 78. Mfrs.' inventories, materials and supplies on hand and on order 5 L,L,L... do 34.4 42.5 35.3 39.5 L,L,L... L,L,L... do do 32.17 52.3 NA NA 19.61 15.67 54.7 1.48 NA 2.52 L,L,L... Bil. dol LgLgLg Bil. dol., EOP ... 707 .33 do Lg,Lg,Lg.... 674.91 Lg,Lg,Lg.... do 106.82 NA NA NA LgLgLg NA Ratio 1.51 L,Lg,Lg.... Bil. dol., EOP ... 2 5 5 . 1 1 NA 1.37 274.5 0.98 730.92 689.75 109.02 1.53 4.2 22.59 3.9 21.41 77.4 NA NA 2.63 NA 1.90 750.26 696.11 111.62 1.53 268.04 275.93 303.3 -0.22 302.8 308.4 0.25 0.35 0.47 NA NA NA NA 750.59 697.55 112 .07 NA NA 36 31 -2.36 NA 0.11 NA 38 0.4 0.3 0.5 NA NA NA NA NA NA 71 70 65 35.7 -0.46 NA 753.56 699.39 112 .67 NA NA NA 1.53 277.36 30 -3.94 22 .7 -1.18 1.53 NA 2 7 7 . 8 2 -10.3 NA NA NA NA 31.8 NA 0. NA NA -0.2 NA 2.6 0.9 2.4 NA 77 NA 78 -0.51 0.7 -0.50 98 23 99 1.4 3.0 19 3.9 3.4 1.1 0.2 0.1 0. NA NA NA NA NA NA 16 18 79 80 15 26 0. 2 .9 B6. Prices, Costs, and Profits Sensitive Commodity Prices: 98. Change in producer prices, sensitive materials 3 23. Spot market orices, raw industrial materials© *99. Change in sensitive materials prices (smoothed 6 ) 3 L,L,L... Percent U,L,L... 1967 = 100 L,L,L... Percent Stock Prices: *19 Stock prices 500 common stocks (u) ILL Profits and Profit Margins: 16. Corporate profits after tax 18. Corporate profits after tax in 1982 dollars 79. Corporate profits after tax with IVA and CCAdj 80 do , in 1982 dollars 15. Profits after taxes per dollar of sales, mfg.3 26. Ratio, price to unit labor cost, nonfarm business L,L,L... A.r., bil. dol L,L,L... do L,C,L... do L,C,L... do L,L,L.... Cents L,L,L... 1977 = 100 142.9 127.1 176.6 160.7 4.8 99.3 160.9 NA NA NA NA NA 162.7 143.1 183.2 163.7 5.8 169.1 148.0 185 .2 164.1 5.9 98.7 98.7 NA NA NA NA NA NA Cash Flows: 34. Corporate net cash flow 35. Corporate net cash flow in 1982 dollars l,L,L... A.r., bil. dol L,L,L... do 396.6 396.7 417.7 NA 420.8 418.7 425 .7 423.7 NA NA 1.2 1.2 NA NA 34 35 1.1 NA 63 0.26 0.49 -0.02 310.6 -0.03 -0.51 305 .0 -0.07 0.15 0.29 0.66 309.7 -0.14 317.2 1.5 -0.07 1941-43 = 10... 2 8 6 . 8 3 2 6 5 . 7 9 2 6 3 . 1 4 2 6 6 . 9 2 2 7 4 . 9 8 2 7 7 . 4 0 27 Unit Labor Costs and Labor Share: 63. Unit labor cost, business sector Lg,Lg,Lg.... 1977 = 100 68. Labor cost per unit of real gross domestic product, nonfinancial corporations Lg,Lg,Lg.... Dollars 62. Labor cost per unit of output, mfg. a) Actual data Lg,Lg,Lg.... 1977 = 100 *b) Actual data as percent of trend 3 Lg,Lg,Lg.... Percent 64. Compensation of employees as percent of 3 national income Lg,Lg,Lg.... do 1.02 0.13 276.51 -2.3 171.5 NA 177.1 179.1 NA 0.732 0.753 0.747 0.758 NA 136.7 99.6 137.0 136.8 136.5 99.8 99.7 99.5 137.8 100.4 73.0 NA 73.2 73.3 NA 0.40 0.59 0.26 0.23 0.14 0.03 0.52 -0.11 0.47 0.55 0.20 0.36 0.11 0.57 0.41 0.46 0.14 2.4 0.27 2.0 0.71 1.8 0.12 NA 68 1.0 0.9 62 62 0.1 NA 64 -0.33 -0.35 -0.17 0.2 -0.03 -0.2 -0.3 85 102 104 105 106 0.028 0.012 0.083 0.020 107 108 NA NA 84.49 - 4 6 . 3 4 NA - 2 3 . 7 5 -2.4 NA NA 50.17 NA NA NA 33 112 113 111 110 NA 39 1.5 138.5 100.9 137 .6 100.3 137.3 100.1 -0.6 -0.2 -0.2 -0.6 -0.2 -0.2 B7. Money and Credit Money: 85. Change in money supply Ml3 102. Change in money supply M23 104 Change in total liquid assets3 105. Money supply Ml in 1982 dollars *106 Money supply M2 in 1982 dollars Velocity of Money: 107. Ratio, GNP to money supply Ml 3 108. Ratio, personal income to money supply M23 Credit 33. 112. 113. *111. 110. Flows: Net change in mortgage debt3 Net change in business loans3 Net change in consumer installment credit3 Change in business and consumer credit outstanding3 Funds raised by private nonfinancial borrowers Credit Difficulties: 39. Delinquency rate, installment loans (inverted 4 ) 3 5 L,L,L.... do L,C,U.... do LLL do L,L,L... Bil. dol L LL do 0.29 0.27 0.38 631.8 2430.3 NA 632.4 2454.8 633.5 2463.6 634.7 2458.5 NA 630.0 2450.5 630.8 2 4 4 5 .7 629.0 2451.8 NA 630.2 2453.9 C,C,C.... Ratio C,Lg,C.... do 6.084 1.321 6.272 1.351 6.246 1.339 6.274 1.351 6.357 1.371 1.376 1.365 1.372 -0.011 NA 8.73 41.19 5.9 541.13 NA 36.95 NA NA NA NA NA 2.56 48.90 59.54 35.79 7 .1 9.5 621.40 5 7 4 . 6 0 NA 52.73 NA NA NA NA 26.17 46.87 7.9 NA 23.77 53.75 6.4 NA 108.26 NA NA NA -2.40 2.47 NA NA NA L,L,L.... A.r., bil. dol L,L,L.... do L.L,L.... do L,L,L.... A.r., percent L,L,L.... A.r., bil. dol L,L,L... Percent, EOP ... 0.69 2.34 0.52 2.42 0.43 0.76 0.33 -0.3 0.2 6.88 -1.5 0.49 -0.16 NA 0.2 0.1 0.007 -7.5 NA NA NA NA -0.08 0.16 NA -0.7 Summary of Recent Data and Current Changes for Principal Indicators—Continued 1 Table 1. Basic data 3 Series title and timing classification1 Percent change Annual average 1987 1988 2dQ 3dQ 4th Q 1988 1988 1988 Oct. 1988 Nov. 1988 Oct. Dec. 1988 to Nov. 1988 Nov. to Dec. 1988 2dQ to 3dQ 3dQ to 4th Q 1988 1988 Series number Unit of 1. CYCLICAL INDICATORS-Con. B7. Money and Credit— Con. Bank Reserves: 93. Free reserves (inverted')3© 94. Borrowings from the Federal Reserve 3 © Interest Rates: 119. Federal funds rate3 © 114. Discount rate on new Treasury bills3© 116. Yield on new high-grade corporate bonds 3 © 115. Yield on long-term Treasury bonds3 @ 117. Yield on municipal bonds3 © 118. Secondary market yields, FHA mortgages3©.. 67. Bank rates on short-term business loans3© *109. Average prime rate charged by banks3© Outstanding Debt: 66. Consumer installment credit outstanding5 72. Commercial and industrial loans outstanding *101. Commercial and industrial loans outstanding in 1982 dollars *95. Ratio, consumer installment credit to personal income 3 L,L),U.... Mil. dol do L,Lg,U.... L,Lg,Lg.... Percent C,Lg,Lg.... do do Lg,Lg,Lg.... do C,Lg,Lg.... do U,Lg,Lg.... do Lg,Lg,Lg.... do Lg,Lg,Lg.... do Lg,Lg,Lg.... 241 - 1 , 3 3 2 - 1 , 9 5 6 - 2 , 1 9 6 -1,218 -1,237 -1,742 756 2,357 3, 173 2,885 2,292 2,861 2,299 6.66 5.83 9.69 8.63 7.64 10.16 8.09 8.20 7.57 6.67 9.96 8.98 7.68 7.16 6.23 7.98 6.99 10.08 10.14 9.06 7.83 9.20 7.74 10.49 10.65 10.66 9.18 9.32 8.49 8.78 9.75 9.71 -676 1,716 8.47 7.70 9.96 9.03 7.51 8.30 7.34 9.86 8.89 7.47 8.35 7.68 9.98 9.07 7.46 9.13 7.61 -0.01 10.56 10.11 10.18 10.23 10.63 10.81 0.40 0.41 0.41 0.07 0.06 0.15 0.18 10.00 10.05 10.50 0.05 0.45 8.76 8.09 10.05 NA 6 4 4 . 3 7 6 5 3 . 3 2 Lg,lg,Lg.... Bil. dol., EOP ... 6 1 3 . 0 2 NA 6 5 7 . 2 3 6 6 1 . 7 0 NA Lg,Lg,Lg.... Bil. dol 364.12 389.34 3 8 9 . 8 3 3 9 2 . 7 5 398.27 393.94 3 9 5 . 9 2 404.94 Lg,Lg,Lg.... Lg Lg Lg do Percent 354.26 364.03 366.04 363.66 505 -1,066 5 6 2 -1,145 367.06 364.09 365.58 371.51 15.64 NA 15.86 15.92 NA 15.73 15.87 NA 117.7 113.6 0.4 113.5 102.8 102.6 121.7 118.3 0.3 118.2 106.9 106.3 121.0 117 .5 0.3 117.1 106.5 106.0 122 .4 119.1 0.4 119.7 108.0 106.9 123.8 120.3 0.3 120.9 108.5 107.5 120.2 0.4 120.7 108.2 107.1 120.3 0.3 120.8 108.3 107.4 120.5 0.3 121.2 109.0 108.1 0.05 0.34 0.12 0.18 0.7 0.5 NA 2.3 0.4 1.6 NA 0.14 240 288 0.82 0.76 0.06 0.14 -0.09 0.01 1.26 0.93 1.4 0.7 -978 -881 0.49 0.71 -0.18 -0.17 -0.23 -0.10 0.36 0.47 93 94 119 114 116 115 117 118 67 109 NA 1.4 66 72 -0.7 0.9 101 0.06 NA 95 1.1 1.0 0.8 0.7 0.7 310 320 320 322 330 335 331 332 333 334 1.0 340 -0.1 341 345 346 370 358 II. OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES B. Prices, Wages, and Productivity Bl. Price Movements 310. 320. 320c 322. 330. 335. 331. 332 333 334. Implicit price deflator for gross national product 1982 = 100 Consumer price index for all urban consumers (CPI-U) ©.... 1982-84 = 100. Change in CPI-U (S/A) 3 Percent Consumer price index for all urban consumers, food 1982-84 = 100. 1982 = 100 Producer price index (PPI), all commodities © do PPI, industrial commodities © PPI, crude materials for further processing do do PPI, intermediate materials, supplies, and components do PPI capital equipment do PPI, finished consumer goods 0.1 -0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 93.7 95.9 96.4 97.1 96.2 97.1 94.1 97.4 101.5 111.7 103.6 107 .1 114.3 106 .2 106.4 113.7 105.5 108.3 114.9 107 .1 109.2 115.7 107.9 108.7 115.4 107.5 109.2 115.7 107 .9 109.7 116.1 108.2 173.5 179.0 178.4 179.7 181.5 181.5 181.4 181.7 -0.1 94.0 93.3 92.9 93.1 92 .9 92.7 -0.2 -3.1 0.5 0.3 0.4 0.2 0. 0.3 0.6 0.7 3.5 0.5 0.3 0.3 1.2 1.4 0.1 2.2 1.4 0.8 0.7 1.8 1.1 1.5 0.2 0.7 -0.1 1.0 0.5 0.6 -0.9 B2. Wages and Productivity 340. Average hourly earnings of production or nonsupervisory workers on private nonagricultural payrolls 341. Real average hourly earnings of production or nonsupervisory workers on private nonagricultural payrolls 345. Average hourly compensation, nonfarm business sector 346. Real average hourly compensation, nonfarm business sector 370. Output per hour, business sector 358. Output per hour, nonfarm business sector 1977 = 100 do do do do do 188.5 100.6 111.0 109.0 NA NA NA NA 93.5 93.0 195.9 100.9 111.8 110.1 198.4 101.1 112 .2 110.6 -0.2 NA NA NA NA -0.5 1.3 0.2 0.4 0.5 NA NA NA NA 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.4 0.6 C. Labor Force, Employment, and Unemployment 441. 442. 37. 444. 445. 446. 447. Civilian labor force Civilian employment Number of persons unemployed. Number unemployed, males 20 years and over Number unemployed, females 20 years and over Number unemployed, both sexes 16-19 years of age. Number unemployed, full-time workers Civilian Labor Force Participation Rates: 451. Males 20 years and over 3 452. Females 20 years and over 3 453 Both sexes 16-19 years of age3 Millions, .do. Thousands, .do. do. .do. .do. Percent do do 119.86 121.67 1 2 1 . 3 5 121.88 1 2 2 . 3 9 122 .09 1 2 2 . 5 1 1 2 2 . 5 6 112.44 114.97 114.69 115 .20 1 1 5 . 8 4 115.57 1 1 5 . 9 5 116.01 6,701 7 ,425 6,664 6,678 6,545 6,518 6,554 6,563 3,369 2,987 2,938 2,965 2,953 2,953 2,911 2,996 2,709 2,496 2,487 2,483 2,422 2 ,427 2,413 2,445 1,347 1,226 1,216 1,244 1,194 1,122 1,165 1,179 5,979 5,357 5,176 5,305 5,333 5 ,273 5,317 5,255 78.0 56.2 54.7 77.9 56.8 55.3 78.0 56.6 55.1 77.9 56.8 56.0 77 .8 57 .2 77 .8 77 .8 57.0 55.2 55 .2 57.4 55.1 77.8 57.3 55.2 0.3 0.3 0.7 2.9 1.3 -6.0 1.9 0. 0.4 -0.1 0. 0.1 -0.1 -1.4 -0.9 5.1 0.8 0. -0.1 0.1 -0.9 0.5 2.3 0.5 -0.1 0.2 0.9 -2.0 0.5 -2.8 -6.4 -1.5 -0.1 0.4 -0.8 441 442 37 444 445 446 447 451 452 453 D. Government Activities Dl. Receipts and Expenditures 500. 501. 502. 510. 511. 512 Federal Government surplus or deficit 3 Federal Government receipts Federal Government expenditures State and local government surplus or deficit3 State and local government receipts State and local government expenditures 517. 525. 548. 557. 570. 564. Defense Department gross obligations incurred Defense Department prime contract awards Mfrs.' new orders, defense products Industrial production, defense and space equipment Employment, defense products industries Federal Government purchases for national defense A.r., bil. dol do do do do do - 1 5 7 . 8 -141.9 - 1 3 3 . 3 - 1 2 3 . 5 NA 916.5 974.2 NA 983.0 975.5 1116.1 1074.2 1116.3 1099.0 1143.0 56.2 53.9 56.0 NA 52.9 655.7 698.4 708.0 NA 701.3 602.8 647.4 642.1 665.6 652.0 Mil. dol 30,812 12,032 9,145 188.9 1,589 295.3 NA 3 3 , 8 7 8 2 8 , 7 8 2 NA 1 5 , 0 3 4 12 , 9 8 1 9,120 10,638 7 ,501 186.2 186.0 184.8 NA 1,586 1,576 297 .5 298.8 294.3 21,176 2,400 4,428 33,853 3,471 5 .896 NA 26 , 5 9 6 27 , 3 3 2 NA 3,192 3,397 NA 5,338 5,704 NA 3 6 , 1 6 8 3 6 , 6 1 7 NA 3,363 3,136 NA 5 .693 5 .873 9.8 -0.8 -1.5 -0.2 1.4 1.5 NA NA 4.0 NA NA 2.1 500 501 502 510 511 512 NA NA NA 1.4 517 525 548 557 570 564 NA NA NA NA NA NA 602 604 606 612 614 616 D2. Defense Indicators do do 1977 = 100 Thousands A.r., bil. dol NA NA NA NA 9 , 7 4 9 10,695 184.0 183.5 1,566 NA 298.4 NA NA NA NA 8 , 3 9 2 10,160 183.2 183.3 NA 1,565 NA NA -21.5 -0.4 -0.1 NA NA 21.1 -0.1 NA -15.0 -13.7 -29.5 -0.6 -0.6 -1.5 30.0 -0.7 E. U.S. International Transactions El. Merchandise Trade 602. 604. 606. 612. 614 616. Exports, excluding military aid shipments Exports of domestic agricultural products Exports of nonelectrical machinery General imports Imports of petroleum and petroleum products Imoorts of automobiles and Darts Mil. dol do do do do do NA 27 ,816 27 , 1 7 7 NA 3,092 2,808 NA 5 , 6 9 8 5,709 NA 3 6 , 6 0 0 3 8 , 1 3 4 NA 2 , 7 1 8 2,645 NA 6.589 6.291 NA NA NA NA NA NA -2.3 -9.2 0.2 4.2 -2.7 -4.5 NA NA NA NA NA NA 2.8 6.4 6.9 1.2 -6.7 3.2 Table 1. Summary of Recent Data and Current Changes for Principal Indicators—Continued Basic data: Series title Unit of P ercent chang ^ E A nnual averag 3dQ 1987 4th Q 1987 1st Q 1988 2dQ 1988 3dQ 1988 IstQ to 2dQ 1988 4th Q 1988 2dQ to 3dQ 1988 3dQ to 4th 0 1988 X 1986 1987 -30.88 93.76 124.64 -36.14 55.99 92.13 22.53 16.74 -35.13 106 . 2 1 141 .34 -40.07 62 .39 102.46 25.94 20.84 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA -38.99 1 06 . 32 145 . 3 0 -39.66 64.90 104.57 23.29 22.22 -29.15 119.25 148 . 4 0 -41.19 68.01 109.20 33.25 20.71 -33.82 121.12 154.94 -35.18 75.30 110.48 26.55 25.40 -30.99 123.00 153.99 -30.15 79.61 109.76 23.43 25.37 -27 .78 129.79 157 . 5 7 -28.53 82 . 3 1 110.84 26.83 27.17 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA 2.83 1.6 -0.6 5.03 5 .7 -0.7 -11.8 -0.1 3.21 5.5 2.3 1.62 3.4 1.0 14.5 7.1 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA 667 668 669 622 618 620 651 652 A.r., bil. dol do A.r., dollars A.r., bil. dol do do A.r., dollars 4240.3 3721.7 15 , 4 0 1 3706.3 3019.6 2640.9 10,929 4526.7 3 8 4 7 .0 15,770 3812.6 3209.7 2686.3 11,012 4861.8 3995.0 16,231 3952.5 3472.9 2789.4 11,331 4568.0 3865.3 15 , 8 2 6 3852.2 3224.9 2683.9 10,989 4662.8 3923.0 16,022 3855.9 3315.8 2728.9 11,145 4724.5 3956.1 16, 126 3890.1 3375.6 2762.3 11,260 4823.8 3985.2 16,213 3949.9 3421.5 2762.2 11,237 4909.0 4009.4 16,283 3969.9 3507.5 2800.4 11,362 4989.9 4029.2 16,301 4000.0 3587.1 2832.8 11,463 2.1 0.7 0.5 1.5 1.4 0. -0.2 1.8 0.6 0.4 0.5 2.5 1.4 1.1 1.6 0.5 0.1 0.8 2.3 1.2 0.9 200 50 217 213 224 225 227 A.r., bil. dol do do do do do do do 2807 .5 2455.2 406.5 385.0 943.6 879.5 1457.3 1190.7 3012.1 2521.0 421.9 390.9 997.9 890.5 1592.3 1239.5 3226.0 2591.1 449.9 408.6 1047.2 899.9 1728.9 1282.6 3058.2 3076.3 3128.1 2545.2 2531.7 2559.8 441.4 422.0 437.8 387.6 406.5 401.1 1006.6 1012.4 1016.2 891.9 890.5 892.7 1 6 1 0 . 2 1 6 4 1 .9 1 6 7 4 . 1 1246is 1253.6 1265.9 3194.6 2579.0 449.8 410.6 1036.6 893.6 1708 2 1274.8 3261.2 2603.8 452.9 410.4 1060.8 904.5 1747 5 1288.9 3320.1 2621.9 459.3 412.5 1075.2 908.7 1785 6 1300.7 2.1 0.8 2.7 2.4 2.0 0 1 2 0 O.'? 2.1 1.0 0.7 0. 2.3 1.2 2 3 lil 1.8 0.7 1.4 0.5 1.4 0 5 2 2 o!9 230 231 232 233 236 238 £o j-a l7 do .do. .do. do. do do. 665.9 643.5 650.4 628.1 15.5 15.4 712.9 674.8 673.7 640.4 39.2 34.4 765.5 721.8 717.4 679.3 48.1 42.5 702.8 667.9 688.3 654.9 14.5 13.0 764.9 724.7 692.9 657.6 72.0 67.1 763.4 728.9 698.1 662.9 65.3 66.0 758.1 715.1 714.4 679.7 43.7 35.3 772.5 726.1 722.8 686.6 49.7 39.5 767.9 717.1 734.3 687.9 33.7 29.2 -0.7 -1.9 2.3 2.5 -21.6 -30.7 1.9 1.5 1.2 1.0 6.0 4.2 -0.6 -1.2 1.6 0.2 -16.0 -10.3 240 241 242 243 245 30 do do do. do. do do 871.2 760.5 366.2 333.4 505.0 427.1 924.7 780.2 382.0 339.0 542.8 441.2 963.6 781.2 380.2 328.1 583.4 453.1 932.2 782.9 386.3 342.1 546.0 440.8 947.3 792.6 391.4 347.7 555.9 444.9 945.2 776.4 377.7 327.8 567.5 448.7 961.6 783.8 382.2 331.6 579.4 452.2 955.3 773.5 367.7 320.1 587.6 453.4 992.2 790.9 393.2 332.9 599.0 458.0 1.7 1.0 1.2 1.2 2.1 0.8 -0.7 -1.3 -3.8 -3.5 1.4 0.3 3.9 2.2 6.9 4.0 1.9 1.0 260 261 262 263 266 267 - 9 3 . 2 - 1 2 5 . 2 -125 .7 - 1 1 2 . 1 -99.1 -130.7 -126.0 -109.0 440.4 459.7 487.8 518.7 459.2 486.2 503.7 440.9 599.9 611.9 565 .6 585 .4 585 .2 595.1 602 .8 571.6 -90.4 -92.6 507 .1 496.9 1988 II. OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES-Con. E2. Goods and Services Movements Except Transfers Under Military Grants 667. 668 669 622. 618 620. 651. 652. Balance on goods and services 1 Exports of goods and services Imports of goods and services Balance on merchandise trade 5 Merchandise exports adjusted Merchandise imports, adjusted Income on U.S. investment abroad Income on foreign investment in the United States Bil. dol do do do do do do do A. National income and Product Al. GNP and Personal Income 200. 50. 217. 213. 224. 225. 227. Gross national product Gross national product in 1982 dollars Per capita gross national product in 1982 dollars Final sales in 1982 dollars Disposable personal income Disposable personal income in 1982 dollars Per capita disposable personal income in 1982 dollars A2. Personal Consumption Expenditures 230. 231. 232. 233. 236. 238 237 239. Total Total in 1982 dollars. Durable goods .. Durable goods in 1982 dollars. Nondurable goods Nondurable goods in 1982 dollars Services Services in 1982 dollars 239 A3. Gross Private Domestic Investment 240. 241. 242. 243. 245. 30. Total Total in 1982 dollars Fixed investment Fixed investment in 1982 dollars . Change in business inventories 3 Change in business inventories m 1982 dollars 3 A4. Government Purchases of Goods and Services 260. 261. 262. 263. 266. 267. Total Total m 1982 dollars. Federal Government Federal Government in 1982 dollars . State and local government State and local government in 1982 dollars A5. Foreign Trade 250. 255. 252. 256. 253. 257. Net exports of goods and services- 1 Net exports of goods and services in 1982 dollars 3 Exports of goods and services Exports of goods and services in 1982 dollars. Imports of goods and services Imports of goods and services in 1982 dollars 220. 280. 282. 284. 286. 288. National income Compensation of employees Proprietors' income with IVA and CCAdj Rental income of persons with CCAdj Corporate profits before tax with IVA and CCAdj Net interest. 290. 295 292 298 293. Gross saving Business saving Personal saving Government surplus or deficit' Personal saving rate ; .do. .do .do .do. .do. do -104.4 -123.0 -137.5 -128.9 428.0 378.4 378.4 427.8 482 . 8 551.1 556.7 515.9 -90.3 -80.0 -100.7 -93.9 536.1 543.8 514.0 517.6 634.1 616 .0 618.3 607 .9 21.7 16.4 4.0 2.2 -0.4 -0.9 10.4 -1.3 5.7 3.4 -10.3 -6.8 1.4 0.7 250 255 252 256 3.1 2 .9 3.1 1.7 253 257 .do. .do. do do. do. do. NA 3437.1 3 6 7 8 . 7 3964.3 3708.0 3802.0 3850.8 3928.8 4000.7 2 5 0 7 . 1 2683.4 2904.9 2702.8 2769.9 2816.4 2874.0 2933.2 2996.3 321.6 324.6 328.8 324.7 326.0 323.9 286.7 312.9 306.8 19.7 19.1 18.4 19.6 18.1 20.5 20.5 19.1 12.4 NA 330.0 316.1 316.2 310.4 323.6 322 .0 326.5 298.9 3 9 6 . 2 415.1 380.6 353.6 358.3 369.5 373.9 331.9 391.5 2.0 2.0 1.5 -6.8 3.3 1.8 1.8 2.1 -2.2 3.1 1.1 4.1 NA 2.2 0.9 -3.0 NA 4.8 220 1.1 1.2 -14.7 22 .1 -0.7 4.9 0.7 14.0 9.6 0.5 NA NA 13.0 NA 0.4 290 295 292 298 293 597.5 589.5 A6. National Income and Its Components 280 282 284 286 288 A7. Saving do do do do Percent 560.4 537.2 561.0 560.0 121.7 104.2 -144.4 -104.9 4.0 3.2 643.0 NA 147.0 -87.9 4.2 NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except for those, indicated by © , that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Series indicated by an asterisk {*) are included in the maior composite indexes. Dollar values are in current dollars unless otherwise specified. For complete series titles and sources, see "Titles and Sources of Series" at the back of this issue. NA. not available, a, anticipated. EOP, end of period. A.r., annual rate. S/A. seasonally adjusted (used for special emphasis). IVA, inventory valuation adjustment. CCAdj, capital consumption ad|ustment. The three-part timing code indicates the timing classification of the series at peaks, at troughs, and at all turns: L. leading; C, roughly coincident: Lg, lagging: U, unclassified. 603.4 556.8 569.6 570.0 72.6 144 . 0 - 8 5 . 5 -110.7 4.3 2.3 627 . 0 576.4 149.9 -99.2 4.4 634.1 583.3 127.8 -77.1 3.7 665.4 587 . 2 145 .7 -67 .5 4.2 NA NA 164.6 NA 4.6 " For a few series, data shown here are rounded to fewer digits than those shown elsewhere m BCD. Annual figures published by the source agencies are used if available. ' Differences rather than percent changes are shown for this series. 4 Inverted series. Since this series tends to move counter to movements in general business activity, signs of the changes are reversed. '• End-of-penod series. The annual figures (and quarterly figures for monthly series) are the last figure? for the period. " T h i s series is a weighted 4-terrn moving average (with weights 1, 2, 2, 1) placed on the terminal month of the span. CYCLICAL INDICATORS COMPOSITE INDEXES AND THEIR COMPONENTS Chart Al. Composite Indexes Index: 1967^1001 „„. . , , , , , . 910. Index of eleven leading i (series 1,5,8,19,20,23^1,36,99,106,J •*<•£* ~ 930. Index of six lagging indicators (series 62,77, 101,109) Zii ./ 50J 1952 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 881989 NOTE-. Numbers entered on the chart indicate length of leads (-) and lags {•*-) in months from reference turning dates. Va(ues of this index prior to January 1984 include a twelfth component, series 12, which has been suspended from the current index. Current data for these series are shown on page 60. 1 10 JANUARY 1989 CYCLICAL INDICATORS COMPOSITE INDEXES AND THEIR COMPONENTS—Continued Chart Al. Composite Indexes—Continued Nov. Mar. P T ^ H : m lindex: 1967=100] , *z&f 915. Inventory investment and purchasing (series 8,32,36,99) 916. Profitability (series 19,26,80) 940. Ratio, coincident index Wigging index 195253 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 881989 NOTE: Numbers entered on the chart indicate length of leads (-) and lags ( + ) in months from reference turning dates. Current data for these series are shown on page 60. ltd) JANUARY 1989 11 CYCLICAL INDICATORS COMPOSITE INDEXES AND THEIR COMPONENTS—Continued Chart A2. Leading Index Components 1. Average weekly hours of production or nonsuperviary workers, manufacturing (hours) 42-, nui 41- 403938- 5. Average weekly initial claims for unemployment insurance, State programs (thousands—inverted scale) 200 -I 8. Manufacturers' new orders in 1982 dollars, consumer goods and materials industries (bil. doLHTLX 12 100908070605040- 30J 32. Vendor performance, percent of companies receiving slower deliveries (percent) 20. Contracts and orders for plant and equipment in 1982 dollars (bil. dd.) 195253 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 7 - 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 881989 Current data for these series are shown on pages 61, 64, and 66. 12 JANUARY 1989 CYCLICAL INDICATORS COMPOSITE INDEXES AND THEIR COMPONENTS—Continued Chart A2. Leading Index Components—Continued P I P 29. New private housing units authorized by local building permits (index: 1967-100) i .Ar\ 36. Change in manufacturing and trade inventories on hand and on order in 1982 dollars, smoothed1:(am. rate, bil. dol.) | l.L.L I 99. Change in sensitive materials prices, smoothed1 (percent) fuT 19. Stock prices, 500 common stocks (index: 1941-43=10) 106. Money supply M2 in 1982 dollars (bil. dol.) Ul 111. Change in business and consumer credit outstanding (am. rate, percent) )t,L,L 195253 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 881989 1 This is a weighted 4-term moving average (with weights 1,2,2,1) placed on the terminal month of the span. Current data for these series are shown on pages 67, 68, 69, 71, and 72. ItCII JANUARY 1989 13 CYCLICAL INDICATORS COMPOSITE INDEXES AND THEIR COMPONENTS—Continued Chart A3. Coincident Index Components July May P T Jan. July July Nov. P T P T 41. Employees on nonagricuKural payrolls (millions) 51. Personal income less transfer Davments in 1982 dollars (ana, rate, bil. dol.) 47. Industrial production (index: 1977=100) C,C,C 57. Manufacturing and trade sates in 1982 dollars (bil. dol.) C,C,C 195253 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 881989 Current data for these series are shown on pages 62. 63, and 65. 14 JANUARY 1989 CYCLICAL INDICATORS COMPOSITE INDEXES AND THEIR COMPONENTS—Continued Chart A4. Lagging Index Components July May P T Jan. July July Nov F T P T 77. Ratio, manufacturing and trade i 1982 dollars (ratio) Labor cost per unit of output, as percent of trend (percent) 195253 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 881989 Current data for these series are shown on pages 62, 68, 70, and 73. IICII JANUARY 1989 15 CYCLICAL INDICATORS CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS Chart Bl. Employment and Unemployment [Marginal Employment Adjustments] 42- 1. Average weekly hours of production or nonsupervisory workers, manufacturing (hours) | L.L.1.1 41403938- 21. Average weekly overtime hows of production or nonsupervisory workers, manufacturing (hours) 2-1 5. Average weekly initial claims for unemployment insurance, State programs (thousands—inverted scale) [ L,C,L | 200-. [Job Vacancies] 1.4- 60. Ratio, help-wanted advertising in newspapers to number 1.0- . 0,6- ' 0.2- 46. Help-wanted advertising in newspapers (index: 1967=108) HIPI 180160- -, 140- -C^ 1201008060- 1962 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 1989 Current data for these series are shown on page 61. 16 JANUARY 1989 ItCII CYCLICAL INDICATORS B I CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued Chart Bl. Employment and Unemployment—Continued in nonagricultural activities (millions) x 41. Employees on nonagricuttural payroll (milliom) 40. Employees on nonagricultural payrolls, goods-producing industries (miffions) 1962 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 74 75 76 11 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 1989 Current data for these series are shown on pages 61 and 62. IICII JANUARY 1989 17 CYCLICAL INDICATORS B I CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued Chart Bl. Employment and Unemployment—Continued P T | Comprehensive Unemployment | 37. Number of persons unemployed (trillions—inverted safe) 43. Unemployment rate (percent—inverted scale) 45. Average weekly insured unemployment rate, State programs (percent—inverted scale) 91. Average duration of unemployment (weeks—inverted scate) 44. Unemployment rate, persons unemployed 15 weeks and over (percent—inverted scate) -TS 1962 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 1989 Current data for these series are shown on page 62. 18 JANUARY 1989 ltd* CYCLICAL INDICATORS B I CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued Chart B2. Production and Income Nov p Mar T 4400- [Comprehensive Output and Income) 40003600- SO. Gross national product in 1982 dollars, Q (am. rate, bil. dot.) 32002800- 2400- 3600 3400320030002800- 52. Personal income in 1982 doHars (arm, rate, fail, dol.) 2600240022002000- 1800- 3000' 2800 • 2600' 51. Personal income tess transfer payments in 1982 dollars (anr,.rate,&,M) 2400' 22002000' 1800 • 16001400- 53. Wages art salaries in 1982 doHire, raining, manufacturing, and construct (am. rate, 400J 1962 63 64 65 66 67 6'i '0 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 1989 Current data for these series are shown on page 63. BCII JANUARY 1989 19 CYCLICAL INDICATORS B I CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS— Continued Chart B2. Production and Income — Continued f T P 140- (Industrial Production | fS"^ &U ^^——**~"^ ^v 47. Industrial production (inte: 1877 =100) ^/* ** Xv/ / 100- 160150140130120110- 73. Industrial production, durable manufactures (index: 1977=100) 100- \j ~z_ 9080- 74. Industrial production, nondurable manufactures (lndeii:19??«=100) 1900' 1800' 17001600' 1500' fwJI 1400. 49. Value of goods output in 1982 dollars, Q (am. rate, biL dd.) ItjFfJl 1300' 12001100. 1000. 900800- | Capacity Utilization | 82. Capacity utilization rate, manufacturing (percent) |j,c,U| 90-i 8070- 60-J 84. Capacity utilization rate, materials (percent) 90-, 70- 60 J 1962 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 1989 Current data for these series are shown on pages 63 and 64. 20 JANUARY 1989 HUI CYCLICAL INDICATORS BI CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued Chart B3. Consumption, Trade, Orders, and Deliveries (Orders and Deliveries! Manufacturers' industries (bil. in 1982 dollars, durable current dollars, dd.) 6. Manufacturers durable goods •f 8, Manufacturers' new orders in eoodsjnd materials industries L,L,L 96. Manufa^jrers' unfilled orders, goods industries oiu / 32. Vendor performance, percent of companies receiving slower deliveries (percent) 1962 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 1989 Current data for these series are shown on page 64. KCII JANUARY 1989 21 CYCLICAL INDICATORS B I CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued Chart B3. Consumption, Trade, Orders, and Deliveries—Continued Consumption and TradeJ ufacturing ana 1982 dollars (btl. clEclN 56. Manufacturing and (oil. dol.) fc.C.e 75. Industrial production, consumer goods (index:;flpfc= 100) 59. Sates of retail stores in 1982 dollars (bil. dot.) dollars (bil. dol) 54. Sales of retail stores Cl \ A. . . - HH 55. Personal consumption expenditures, automobiles, Q (ann. rate, bil. dol.) 58. Index of consumer sentiment (1st Q 1966=100) 1962 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 1989 Current data for these series are shown on page 65. 22 JANUARY 1989 ltd) CYCLICAL INDICATORS B CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued Chart B4. Fixed Capital Investment Jan. July P | Formation of Business Enterprises | . — _ I ^/"^-X-x* July Nov. P T 160 140- •' " - •'* %v-vi--J f -X-^*"""^ ^^-* fl2) If7^" ^"£\y~^ 120- 12. Net business formation (index: 1967=100) flJJ [Business Investment Commitments| . Contracts and orders for plant and equipment in current dollars (bil. doi. 20. Contracts and orders for plant and equipment in 1982 dollars (bil. dol.) 27. Manufacturers' new orders in 1982 doll capital goods industries (bil. dot.) Manufacturers' new orders «i current dollars, nondefense capital goods industries ^ VV"? ' 1962 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 1989 1 This is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from McGraw-Hill Information Systems Company, F.W. Dodge Division. Current data for these series are shown on pages 65 and 66. ItCII JANUARY 1989 23 CYCLICAL INDICATORS B I CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued Chart B4. Fixed Capital Investment—Continued Dec. P Ni» T [Business Investment Commitments—Cofe 11, Newly approved capital appropriations, 1,000 manufacturing corporations, Q (bit. dol.) 100. Expenditures in 1982 (Mars for new plant and equi Q(mrate,Wl. dd) [c] Business Investment Expenditures rm rate nil, M) ij <*- I11' S ~\t** Lrru v II ^r-rV " -*ww ^ 350- /*w-^'XSw>^ jS ^^ 450400- J 300- f J 250- 69. Machinery and equipment sales and business construction expenditures (ann. rate, Ml. *J.) |c,Lg,L 180160140120100- 76. Industrial production, business equipment (index: 1977=100) [p^Ty] 1962 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 60J 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 1989 Current data for these series are shown on pages 66 and 67. 24 JANUARY 1989 CYCLICAL INDICATORS B I CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued Chart B4. Fixed Capital Investment—Continued | Business Investment Expenditures—Con.] Gross private nonresidential fixed investment in 1982 dollars (am. rate, bil. dol.) 88. Producers' durable equipment, Q |C,Lg,C 100- [ Residential Construction Commitments and Investment | 28. New private housing units started (am. rate, millions) 2.6-, 2.42.22.01.81.61.4- 1.21.00.8 J 29. New private housing units authorized by local building permits (index: 19S7=100) 200i 18016014012010080- 60 J 240-i Gross private resident fixed investment in 1982 dollars, Q («n rate, bil. dol.) 220200180- , 160- ML 140- , iZ V 1962 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 ^ 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 120- 381 82 10083 84 85 86 87 88 1989 Current data for these series are shown on page 67. JANUARY 1989 25 CYCLICAL INDICATORS B I CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued Chart B5. Inventories and Inventory Investment | Inventory Investment | 30. Change in business inventories in 1982 dollars, Q (ann. rate, bil. dol.) HI 36. Change in manufacturing and trade inventories on hand and on order in 1982 dollars (ann. rate, bil. dol.; moving avg.-4-tenn1) 31. Change in manufacturing and trade inventories (an. rate, bil. dol.; MCD moving avg.—6-term) 38. Change in manufacturers' inventories, materials and supplies on hand and on order (bit do).; MCD moving avg.—4-term) 1962 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 86 87 88 1989 1 This is a weighted 4-term moving average (with weights 1,2,2,1) placed on the terminal month of the span. Current data for these series are shown on page 68. 26 JANUARY 1989 not CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued Chart B5. Inventories and Inventory Investment—Continued 800700- |Inventories on Hand and on Order] 70. Manufacturing and trade inventories in 1982 dollars (bit. dot.) 600500'. 400- 71. Manufacturing and trade inventories in current dollars (U. dol.) X |Lg,Lg,Lg| 300- 200130-1 120110100908070- 65. Manufacturers' inventories, finished goods 60- (MLdoi.) |Lg|Lg[lg 5040- 77. Ratio, manufacturing and trade inventories to sales in 1982 dollars (ratio) 1.81.71.61.51.4300260- 78. Manufacturers' inventories, materials and supplies on hand and on order (bil. dol.) \\ u L. I *S 220180140- 100- 60- 1962 63 6'S '>5 66 f>'; 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 1989 Current data for these series are shown on page 68. Digitized for JANUARY FRASER 1989 ltd* 27 CYCLICAL INDICATORS CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued Chart B6. Prices, Costs, and Profits 98. Change in producer prices for sensitive ciude and intermediate materials (percent; MCD.moving avg.—6-term) | Sensitive Commodity Prices | f w™m 99. Change in sensitive materials prices (percent; moving avg.—4-term1) 23. Spot market pricf$,Taw industrial materials1 (index: 1967=100) /" V^ | Stock Prices] 19. f»Rk prices, 500 commw stocks (index: 1941-43=10) 18. Corporate profits after tax in 1982 dollars, Q (ann. rate, W. dol.) [L,L,L| X" [Profits and Profit Margins] 16. Corporate profits after tax in current dollars, Q (arm. rate, bil. dol.) njn 1962 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 1989 1 This is a weighted 4-term moving average (with weights 1,2,2,1} placed on the terminal month of the span. Beginning with data for June 1981, this is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from Commodity Research Bureau, Inc. Current data for these series are shown on page 69. 2 28 JANUARY 1989 CYCLICAL INDICATORS B I CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued Chart B6. Prices, Costs, and Profits—Continued I Profits and Profit Margins—Con.] 80. Corporate profits after tax with IVA and CCAdj in 1982 dollars, Q (am. rate, bil. dol.) m 280240200160120- 79. Corporate profits after tax with IVA and CCAdj in current dollars, Q (am. rate, bil. dol.) 40-< MET 22. Ratio, corporate domestic profits after tax to corporate domestic 14- income, Q (percent) 1210- 81. Ratio, corporate domestic profits after tax with IVA and CCAdj V to corporate domestic income, Q (percent) 1 \/ 8- T / 64- 15. Profits after taxes per dollar of sales, manufacturing corporations, Q (cents) | L,L,L | 75- 26. Ratio, implicit price deflator to unit labor cost, nonfarm business sector, Q (index: 1977=100) 102-, in 989694- |Cash Flows] 500- 35. Corporate net cash flow in 1982 dollars, Q (ann. rate, bil. dd.) \ 400- 300- 200- 34. Corporate net cash flow in current dollars, Q (am. rate, bil. dol.) 1962 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 100J 84 85 86 87 88 1989 Current data for these series are shown on pages 69 ana 70. KCII Digitized forJANUARY FRASER 1989 29 CYCLICAL INDICATORS B I CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued Chart B6. Prices, Costs, and Profits—Continued [Unit Labor Costs and Labor Share 1 63. Unit labor cost, business sector, Q (index: 1977=100) m 68. Labor cost in current dollars per unit of gross domestic product in 1982 dollars, nonfinancial corporations, Q (dollars) 62. Labor cost per unit of output, manufacturing (index: 1977=100) /V 64. Compensation of employees as a percent of national income, Q (percent) |lg,Lg,Lg| 1962 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 1989 Current data for these series are shown on page 70. 30 JANUARY 1989 CYCLICAL INDICATORS B I CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued Chart B7. Money and Credit 85. Change in money supply Ml (percent; MCP moving avg.—6-tertn) t -"- 102. Change in money supply M2 (percent; MCD moving avg.—6-term) 104, Change in total liquid assets (percent; MCD moving avg.-6-term) + 1.2+ 0.8+ 0.40.0 -0.4J 700650- 105. Money supply Ml in 1982 dollars (bil. dol.) z 600550500450270025002300- 106. Money supply M2 in 1982 dollars (bil. dol.) TO 21001900170015007.5-| 107. Ratio, gross national product to money supply Ml, Q (ratio) 7.0 6.5 6.0 5.55.0- 108. Ratio, personal income to morey supply M2 (ratio). 12 /_ 1962 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 1.501.451.401.351.301.251.20- 88 1989 Current data for these series are shown on page 71. ItCII JANUARY 1989 31 CYCLICAL INDICATORS B I CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued Chart B7. Money and Credit—Continued [Credit Flows] 33. Net change in mortgage debt held by financial institutions and 1% insurance companies (am. rate, bil. dol.)- 112. Net change in business tears (ann. rate, bil. dol.; MCD moving avg.—6-term) 113. Net change in consumer installment credit (am. rate, bil. dol.; MCD moving avg.—6-term) [L,L,L| -20 J 111. Change in business and consumer credit outstanding (ann. rate, percent) • + 100- 1000300- 600500400- 110. Funds raised by private nonfinancial borrowers in credit markete, Q (am. rate, bil. dol.) [L,L,L| I 1962 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 1989 Current data for these series are shown on pages 71 and 72. 32 JANUARY 1989 ltd CYCLICAL INDICATORS B I CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued Chart B7. Money and Credit—Continued [Credit Difficulties] 14. Current liabilities of business failures (mH. doLinverted scale; MCD moving avg.—6-term) •i "vfljM\\pjf '/vyHi.hi!/! \\ /n,a1 39. Percent of consumer instalhient loans delinquent 30 days and over (percent—inverted scate) 93. Free reserves (bil. doL—inverted scale) L.U.U 94. Member bank borrowings from the Federal Reserve (bil. dd.) S" 1962 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 /! 7T 7 4 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 1989 Current data for these series are shown on page 72. ltd) JANUARY 1989 33 CYCLICAL INDICATORS B I CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued Chart B7. Money and Credit—Continued I Interest Rates] 119, Federal funds rate (percent) V 114. Discount rate on new issues of 91-day Treasury bills (percent? |C.Le.te| 116. Yield on new issues or high-grade corporate bonds (percent) lu,U,U 115. Yield on long-term Treasury bonds (percent) 1962 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 85 87 QB 1989 Current data for these series are shown on pages 72 and 73. 34 JANUARY 1989 ItCII CYCLICAL INDICATORS CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued Chart B7. Money and Credit—Continued ,' N:,; Nov. Mar. I P T [Interest Rates—Con. 109. Average prime by baiks (percent 67. Bank rates on stort-teW» business loans, Q (percent) I Outstanding Debt | 101. Commercial and i (bit. dol.) outstanding in 1982 dollars lolalffl \ 72. Commercial and industrial 66. Consumer installment credit outstanding (Ml. dol.) 18- 95. Ratio, consumer instattnent credit outstanding to personal income (percent) |Lg,L«M 161412- 1962 63 64 65 66 67 f>8 c>9 XO 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 1989 Current data for these series are shown on page 73. ItCII JANUARY 1989 35 CYCLICAL INDICATORS C 1 DIFFUSION INDEXES AND RATES OF CHANGE Chart Cl. Diffusion Indexes | Percent rising] 950. Eleven leading irafcator components' (6-mo. span—, 1-mo. span—4 lOO-i 50- 0-1 951. Four roughly coincident indicator components (6-mo. span—, 1-mo. span-—) lOO-i 50- 0-1 952. Six lagging indicator components (6-mo. span—, 1-mo. span—4 100 -i 50- 961. Average weekly hours of production or nonsupervisory workers, 20 manufacturing industries (9-mo. span—, 1-mo. span—-) lOO-i 50- 962. Initial claims for unemployment insurance, State programs, 51 areas (percent declining: 9-mo. soan—^ 1-mo. span—-) lOO-i 50- 963. Employees on private nonagricultural payrolls, 172-186 industries (6-mo. span—, 1-mo. span—) 50- 1962 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 30 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 1989 1 Values of this index prior to January 1984 include a twelfth component, series 12, which has been suspended from the current index. Current data for these series are shown on page 74. 36 JANUARY 1989 ItCII CYCLICAL INDICATORS C I DIFFUSION INDEXES AND RATES OF CHANGE—Continued Chart Cl. Diffusion Indexes—Continued 964. Manufacturers' new (9-mo. span—, 1 100- 50- 0- tons in 1982 dollars, 17 moving avg**«, 1-Q spa 965. Newly approved manufacturing i 80706050403020- 966. Mustrial production, 24 industries (6-mo. span—, 1-mo. 100- 50- 0- 967. Spot market pnce| 13 raw industrial materials (9-mo. span-^, 1-fflo. span—.) 100- 50- 968. Stock prices, 500 common stocks, 40-82 industries (9-mo. span-*^ ferflo. span—-) lOO-i 50- 0-J 1 960. Net profits, manufacturing, about 600 companies 908070605040- 1962 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 1989 1 This is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from Dun & Bradstreet, Inc. Current data for these series are shown on page 75. BCI» JANUARY 1989 37 CYCLICAL INDICATORS C | DIFFUSION INDEXES AND RATES OF CHANGE—Continued Chart Cl. Diffusion Indexes—Continued V T I Percent rising) | Percent Hang] 970, Expenditures for new plant and equipment, 21 industries (1-Q span) (a) Actual expenditures 974. Number of employees, manufacturing and trade (4-Q span)1 975. Level of inventories, manufacturing and trade (4-Q span)1 (c) Early projections 971. New orders, manufacturing (4-Q span) 976. Selling prices, manufacturing (4-Q span)1 90-1 ^-^.-•s>^X4^;. ^*^V ' ^ 9080- '%' A*> :S:7 1 y-% 70- \i-VJ*' fin- 1 972. Net profits, manufacturing and trade (4-Q span) 977. Selling prices, wholesale trade (4-Q span) 90- ^ r , 80- /\ " " " \A.t. .A ; «/ S _^/ 70- 60- 50- 978. Selling prices, retail trade (4-Q span)1 1 973. Net sales, manufacturing and trade (4-Q span) 100-, 100- "%/^^> 90- 90- 80- 80- 70- 70- ' ">\^|tf' 60- 1977 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 1989 1977 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 60- 88 1989 1 This is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from Dun & Bradstreet, Inc. Dun & Bradstreet diffusion indexes are based on surveys of about 1,400 business executives. Current data for these series are shown on page 76. 38 JANUARY 1989 CYCLICAL INDICATORS DIFFUSION INDEXES AND RATES OF CHANGE—Continued Chart C3. Rates of Change Dec. Nov. P T Jan. July F T July P Noy. T I Percent change at annual rate] 1-month spans 3-month spans 910c. Composite index of eleven leading indicates' — 920c. Composite index of (our roughly coincident indicators 930c. Composite index of six lagging indicators 4/c. Index of industrial production 50c. Gross national product in 1982 dollars (1-Q span) 48c. Employee hours in nonagricultural establishments + 30- + 20+ 100- -iO-20J Sic. Personal income less transfer payments in 1982 dollars 5 .^AAk/^^MVw + 20-i + HI0- -10-20- 1962 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 1989 NOTE: Data for these percent changes are shown occasionally in appendix C. The "Alphabetical Index— Series Finding Guide" indicates the latest issue in which the data for each series were published. 1 Values of this index prior to January 1984 include a twelfth component, series 12, which has been suspended from the current index. BCD JANUARY 1989 39 OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES A NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT Chart Al. GNP and Personal Income IV 12 TV 550050004500400035003000- 200. Gross national product in current dollars, Q (am. rate, bil. dol.) 25002000- 1500- 223. Personal income in current dollars (am. rate, bil. dol.) V 1000 -1 \ 22% Disposable personal income in current Mars, Q (am. rate, bil. dol.) 45004000- 50. Gross national product in 1982 dollars, Q (am. rate, bil. dol.) ~ 35003000- 4500 40003500 - 213. Final sates in 1982 dollars, Q (am. rate, bil. dol.) 3000 - 225. Disposable personal income in 1982 dollars, Q (am. rate, Ml. dd.) 1500- 217. Per capita grass national product in 1982 dollars, Q 18 -i 227. Per capita disposable personal income in 1982 dollars, Q (ann. rate, thous. dol.) 1962 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 1989 Current data for these series are shown on pages 63 and 80. 40 JANUARY 1989 KCII NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT—Continued Chart A2. Personal Consumption Expenditures Annual rate, bion Mars (current)}. Personal consumption expenditures— Annual rate. Mfendolars (1982)| 1962 63 64 6b 66 67 68 S9 74 75 76 77 78 79 SO 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 1989 Current data for these series are shown on pages 80 and 81. ltd* JANUARY 1989 41 OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES A NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT—Continued Chart A3. Gross Private Domestic Investment [Annualrate, bBon dolars (current)) 900800700- Gross private domestic investment— 600500400- 300- 200- 242. Fixed investment, Q 245. Change in business inventories, Q Annual rate, bBon dolars (1982)1 30. Change in business inventories, Q 1962 63 64 65 66 67 68 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 HS 37 88 1989 Current data for these series are shown on page 81. 42 JANUARY 1989 IUI OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT—Continued Chart A4. Government Purchases of Goods and Services Mar. T tonual rate, bion dollars (current)) Government purchases of goods and services— 266. State and local government, Q 100 J Iflnnualrate, biBondolars (1982)| 267. State and local government, Q 300- 200- 1962 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 1989 Current data for these series are shown on page 81. ItCII JANUARY 1989 43 OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES IA I NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT—Continued Chart A5. Foreign Trade Dec. P Nov. T Annual rate, bBon dolars (current)) 252. Exports of goods and services, Q 253. Imports of goods and services, Q 250. Net exports of goods and services, Q Annual rate, bion dollars (1982)| 257. hriparts of goods and services, Q 256. Exports of goods and services, Q 255. Net exports of goods and services, Q -100-1501962 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 :") 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 1989 Current data for these series are shown on page 82. 44 JANUARY 1989 IN: OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES IA I NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT—Continued Chart A6. National Income and Its Components Annual rate, bion dofars (current) [_ TOT 450040003500300025002000- 220. National income, Q 1500- 280. Compensation of employees, Q 1000-1 440400360320280240- 286. Corporate profits before tax with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments, Q 200180160140120- if"— 288. Net interest Q 10090807060- 282. Proprietors' income witti inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments, q 504030- 20- 284. Rental income of persons with capital consumption adjustment, 0 10- 1962 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 1989 urrent data for these series are shown on page 82. ltd* JANUARY 1989 45 OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES A I NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT—Continued Chart A7. Saving Annual rate, bikm dollars (current) 800700600500400- 300250200- 150 - 100 • 60- 40-1 298. Government surplus or deficit, Q 293. Personal saving rate, Q 10- " 1962 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 1989 Current data for these series are shown on pages 82 and 83. 46 JANUARY 1989 IM: OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES A I NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT—Continued Chart A8. Shares of GNP and National Income 70 -i 65- 60-1 268. State and local government purchases of goods and services. 0 151 265. federal Government purchases of goods and services, Q 248. Nonresidential fixed investment, Q 5- 249. Residential fixed investment, Q 247. Change in business inventories, Q Net exports of goods and services, Q -5-J [Percent of National Income| SO-i 64. Compensation of employees, Q 75- 70- 65-1 15-1 287. Corporate profits before tax with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments, Q 10- 283. Proprietors' income with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments, Q 289. Net interest, Q 285. Rental income of persons with capital consumption adjustment, Q 1962 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 1989 Current data for these series are shown on page 83. JANUARY 1989 47 OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES B PRICES, WAGES, AND PRODUCTIVITY Chart Bl. Price Movements I Index: 1982=1001 310c. hulk* price deflator fsr piss I Percent change at annual rate | Mti»jp,?i%<.t(i^|t^ 15" 310. Implicit price national product, 10+ 50- 311c. Faed-we^ited price index, gross domestic business product (1-Qspan) + 15+ 10+ 5- 120" ^yt- 0- _^*~*^J** | 6-month spans Producer price indexes— 330c. AllcommotSties + 20- ^ ^^ 7fl- + 10- f 0- Producer price indexes— 120 330. Ml commodfes .— . ^ _^—' \12 -10- no- 335c. hdustriai commodities 100- +20- 90 /*^ + 10- / 70- s~S 60' 331c. Crude materials for fiirthur 120' 110100- 335. Industrial commodities + 30" s, + 20+ 10- V^ ^j\f Vv 90. 8070< OH -10-20J 60. 332c. Intermedwte materials, supplies, and components 120' 110100- 331. Crude materials tor further processing •y + 20+ 100- 90- 33i Intermediate materials,' and components -10- 333c. Capital equipment + 20+ 10- 334. Finished consumer goods 334c. Finished consumer goods + 20+ 10- [Til 0- AL 1977 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 1989 1977 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 -10- 87 88 1989 Current data for these series are shown on pages 84, 85, and 86. JANUARY 1989 IM: OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES BI PRICES, WAGES, AND PRODUCTIVITY—Continued Chart Bl. Price Movements—Continued Consumer price indexes— Percent change at annual rate 320c. All urban consumers (6-month span) m 322c. Ml urban consumers, food (6-montti span) t-i(H -= 20-1 10- Chart B2. Wages and Productivity [Index: 1977=100] 200-i 180160140- 341. Real average hourly earnings of production or nonsupenc&OQL workers on private nonagricultural payrolls' 12010080- 340. Average hourly earnings of production or nonsupervisory workers on private nonagricultural payrolls (current dollars)1 — 220-i 200180160140- 346. Real average hourly compensation, all employees, nonfarm business sector, Q ^ 120100- 345. Average hourly compensation, all nonfarm business sectayQ (current dollars) 60J IT' WJ 1962 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 1989 1 Adjusted for overtime (in manufacturing only) and interindustry employment shifts and seasonality. Current data for these series are shown on pages 84, 87, and 88. ltd* JANUARY 1989 49 OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES B I PRICES, WAGES, AND PRODUCTIVITY—Continued Chart B2. Wages and Productivity—Continued Dec P [Wages CoiT] NI.W T Nov. P Change in average My eatnjngs o{ Mar T production » nonsupervisory workers on private nonagricuftural payrolls1- IPercentcha^' 340c. Current-dollar earnings 1 f- ", PI ' JJk , I ? Change in average hourly compensation, all employees, nonfarm business sector, Q— 345c. Current-dollar compensation + 15- 4-quarter spans + 10+ 5- V——l-quart«sp^Bs (am. rate) 0- 346c. Real compensation 1-quarter spam (am. rate) + 5- 4-quarter spans -5- Negotiated wage and benefit decisions— 348. Average first-year changes, Q (arm. rate) 349. Average changes over life of contract, Q (am. rate) Index: 1977=1001 358. Output per hour, all persons, nonfarm business sector, Q 370. Output per hour, all persons, ousiness sector, u |Percent change) 370c. Change in output per hour, all persons, business sector, Q 1962 63 64 65 1 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 Adjusted for overtime (in manufacturing only) and interindustry employment shifts and seasonaiity. with the annualized 6-month changes. See page 87 for actual 1-month percent changes. Current data for these series are shown on pages 87 and 88. 50 76 2 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 1989 One-month percent changes have been multiplied by a constant (12) to make them comparable JANUARY 1989 KCI OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES LABOR FORCE, EMPLOYMENT, AND UNEMPLOYMENT Chart Cl. Civilian Labor Force and Major Components Civilian labor force (millions) 442. Civilian employment (trillions) Civilian labor force participation rates (percent)— 45V1N&20 years and over sexes 16-19 years of age XV , 452. Females 20 years and over Number unemployed (millions) ! it! 1 37, Persons unemptoyeo! 445. Females 20 years and over 446. Both sexes 16-19 years of age 447. Number unemployed, full-time workers (millions) . Number of persons employed part time for economic reasons (millions) 1962 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 1989 Current data for these series are shown on page 89. BCD JANUARY 1989 51 OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES , D| GOVERNMENT ACTIVITIES Chart Dl. Receipts and Expenditures [Annual rate, Mbn dolars (current)) 502. Federal Govemmerd experxttures, Q 400- 501. Federal Government receipts, Q 200J 500. Federal Government surplus or deficit, Q 900800700- 500400- 511. State and local government receipts, Q —^ 300200- 512. State and local government expenditures, Q 100+ 100+ 80+ 60+ 40- 510. State ami local government surplus or deficit, Q + 2001962 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 1989 Current data for these series are shown on page 90. 52 JANUARY 1989 ltd OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES GOVERNMENT ACTIVITIES—Continued Chart D2. Defense Indicators Ian. July F T July P Not/ T 40- I Advance Measures of Defense Activity] ;*';, 3530- 2520- fross obligations incurred avg—6-term) 15- 22201816141210- 240-i 220200ISO160- 1401201001412108- 6- 4- 1962 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 1989 Current data for these series are shown on page 90. ItO) JANUARY 1989 53 OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES GOVERNMENT ACTIVITIES—Continued Chart D2. Defense Indicators—Continued [intermediate and Final Measures of Defense Activity] 557. Industrial production, defense and space equipment (index: i?=100) X^ 559. Manufacturers' inventories, defense products, (oil. dot) / 561. Manufacturers' unfilled orders, 580. Defense Department net outlays, military functions and military assistance (M. dol.) . ^JT AjsJT Manufacturers' shipments, defense products (bil. dol.) 1962 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 87 88 1989 Current data for these series are shown on page 91. 54 JANUARY 1989 BCII OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES GOVERNMENT ACTIVITIES—Continued Chart D2. Defense Indicators—Continued I Intermediate and Final Measures of Defense Activity—Con. | 570. Employment, defense products industries (millions) 2.0-1 1.81.6- 1.41.2- Defense Department personnel (millions)— 3.5-, 577. Military personnel on active duty 2.0- 578. Civilian personnel, direct hire employment 1.0- 400350300- [National Defense Purchases] 250200- 564. Federal Government purchases of goods and services, national *hnse, Q (am. rate, M. M.) — /* ^ 150- 100- 50 J 565. National defense purchases as a percent of GNP, Q (percent) 7654- 1962 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 1989 Current data for these series are shown on page 91. KCII JANUARY 1989 55 OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES E I U.S. INTERNATIONAL TRANSACTIONS Chart El. Merchandise Trade 602. Exports, excluding military akl sKpments (bil. dol.) 604. Exports of domestic a^kuttural products ; (hLdoL) ~. Exports of nonelectrical macNnery (bil del.) 612. General imports (biL do).) 616. Imports of automobiles and parts (Ml. dol.) 1962 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 1989 Current data for these series are shown on page 92. 56 JANUARY 1989 OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES U.S. INTERNATIONAL TRANSACTIONS— Continued Chart E2. Goods and Services Movements I Annual rate, bion defers! i Excess of receipts 750650- I Excess of payments 550450- Goods and services— 350250- 667. Balance on goods ami services, Q 150- 50 J 650 -i 550- 450350250- 622. Balance on mereharHise trade, Q 150- 50140 -i 120- 100- Income on investment— 80- 60- 40- 652. Foreign investment in the United States, Q 20- 0-" 1962 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 1989 Current data for these series are shown on page 93. JANUARY 1989 57 OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS Chart Fl. Industrial Production P I P 1 Index: 1977 =1001 [Index: 1977=1 Industrial production— Industrial production— 15014U- 721. OECO European countries _,_ (jQ ~-**f~*^^ ^ ^/S~ 130120110 - '^^^Xy>XV" 100- QH - 180 170 160 150 140- 728. Japan 130- 722. United Kingdom 140 120 - 130 110 - 120 S 110- 100- 100- 90- 90- 130- 140 727 Haly ' 130 725. West Germany **v 120' 120 110 110 100 100 90- 1 160' 150 130 /" 723. Canada n 120 726. France 140 130' 120 110 /- - 100 110 J > - " ' 100- 90 90- 1977 78 79 80 81 82 83 86 87 88 1989 1977 78 79 80 81 82 8,i 86 87 88 1989 Current data for these series are shown on page 94. 58 JANUARY 1989 ltd OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES F INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS—Continued Chart F2. Consumer Prices Chart F3. Stock Prices I Percent change at annual rate | 16-month spans I I Index: 1967=1001 Stock prices— Consumer prices— 400 350- 300- 250- 19. United States 320c. United States 200- t-10- 150lOOO-i 900800700 yvv 600500- 1 /w\— / V® 746. France+ 20- 735c. West Germany + 100- 400 300200- 745. West Germany \j\. 100 +20+ 100+ 30- 732c. United Kingdom + 10 0+ 30+20 + 10 0 + 20 - 733c. Canada + 10 01977 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 1989 100-1 1977 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 1989 Current data for these series are shown on pages 95 and 96. ltd) JANUARY 1989 59 CYCLICAL INDICATORS COMPOSITE INDEXES AND THEIR COMPONENTS Qj COMPOSITE INDEXES Year and month 910. Index of eleven leading indicators (series 1, 5, 8, 19, 20, 29, 32, 36, 99, 106, 111) 1 (1967 = 100) 920. Index of four roughly coincident indicators (series 41,47,51.57) (1967 = 100) 930. Index of six lagging indicators (series 62, 77, 91, 95. 101, 109) (1967 = 100) 940. Ratio, coincident index to lagging index 2 Leading indicator subgroups 914. Capital investment commitments (series 12, 20, 29)2 (1967 = 100) (1967 = 100) 915. Inventory investment and purchasing (series 8, 32. 36, 99) 916. Profitability (series 19, 26, 80) 917. Money and financial flows (series 104, 106, 111) (1967 = 100) (1967 = 100) (1967 = 100) 3 ( ) 1986 January February March 174.1 175.0 176.4 162.9 163.4 162.9 140.5 141.1 142.3 115.9 115.8 114.5 108.9 110.2 109.9 103.3 103.3 103.5 117.3 119.0 119.8 142.2 140.3 140.0 April May June 178.1 178.5 178.3 165.6 164.3 163.7 140.5 141.4 141.6 117.9 116.2 115.6 110.4 109.5 109.6 103.8 103.5 103.0 119.9 119.7 120.4 140.3 142.4 142.6 July August September 179.9 180.3 179.9 164.4 164.8 165.8 141.8 142.2 141.6 115.9 115.9 117.1 109.8 108.8 108.9 103.3 102.9 102.8 120.0 120.4 118.9 144.9 145.6 145.5 October November December 181.2 182.7 186.7 165.4 165.8 167.4 143.7 143.4 142.4 115.1 115.6 117.6 108.4 108.6 111.0 102.8 103.6 104.9 117.8 117.4 117.9 147.3 146.8 149.2 January February March 185.5 186.0 187.6 165.6 168.2 168.0 144.6 142.1 141.3 114.5 118.4 118.9 108.9 (NA) 104.4 104.6 105.3 119.3 120.8 121.5 148.9 147.0 145.4 April May June 187.6 188.6 190.5 168.0 167.6 168.2 141.8 142.0 142.6 118.5 118.0 118.0 105.3 106.0 106.7 121.3 121.3 122.9 144.5 144.1 145.6 July August September 190.9 191.7 191.9 169.8 170.6 170.7 141.8 141.6 143.0 119.7 120.5 119.4 107.1 106.4 106.6 124.2 0)126.0 124.7 144.5 144.2 145.4 October November December 192.1 190.1 190.8 173.0 172.6 174.4 142.5 143.3 142.7 121.4 120.4 122.2 107.2 107.4 H)108.2 121.7 118.6 118.3 147.1 146.8 146.6 January February March 1-189.8 191.4 r!91.7 173.7 r!75.0 176.1 144.7 145.1 r!45.5 120.0 rl20.6 rl21.0 107.1 106.7 106.5 119.0 119.5 119.9 rH6.9 147.9 149.0 April May June r!92.2 190.9 r!93.7 176.0 176.4 177.7 r!46.4 r!46.1 r!47.6 r!20.2 r!20.7 r!20.4 105.5 105.6 105.9 119.5 118.9 120.0 Drl51.7 150.7 151.1 July August September r!92.3 193.4 r!92.7 178.3 178.9 178.9 r!47.2 (-148.1 rl48.0 r-121.1 (-120.8 r-120.9 105.5 r!05.5 105.6 119.9 119.5 (NA) (-150.3 (-150.1 147.4 October November December r!93.7 193.4 D"194.6 r!80.7 180.8 [H) 5 182.1 r!47.9 149.3 «150.5 r!22.2 r!21.1 p!21.0 rlOS.l r!04.9 pl05.6 1987 1988 146.9 p!46.6 (NA) NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except for those, indicated by ®, that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Current high values are indicated by (H); for series that move counter to movements in general business activity, current low values are indicated by|H). Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are listed at the back of this issue. The 'V indicates revised; "p". preliminary; "e". estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available. Graphs of these series are shown on pages 10 and 11. H'alues of this index prior to January 1984 include a twelfth component, series 12, which has been suspended from the current index. 2 The following series reached their high values before 1986: series 940 (130.0) in January 1984, and series 914 (111.5) in February 1984. 3 See "New Features and Changes for This Issue," page iii of the March 1987 issue. "Excludes series 36 and 111, for which data are not available. 'Excludes series 57, for which data are not available. 'Excludes series 77 and 95, for which data are not available. 60 JANUARY 1989 CYCLICAL INDICATORS B I CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS MAJOR ECONOMIC PROCESS ^g EMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT Minor Economic Process Marginal Employment Adjustments Timing Class Year L, L, L L, C, L L.C.L 1. Average weekly hours of production or nonsupervisory workers, manufacturing Comprehensive Employment Job Vacancies 21. Average weekly overtime hours of production or nonsupervisory workers, manufacturing 5. Average weekly initial claims for unemployment insurance, State programs1 (Hours) (Thous.) U, C, C L, Lg, U L, Lg, U 60. Ratio, help-wanted advertising in newspapers to number of persons unemployed 46. Index of help-wanted advertising in newspapers 48. Employee hours in nonagricultural establishments and month (Hours) (Ann. rate, bil. hours) (1967 = 100) (Ratio) Revised 2 1986 January February March 40.8 40.6 40.7 3.5 3.4 3.5 375 384 393 0.522 0.485 0.485 137 137 136 184.60 183.90 184.36 April June 40.8 40.7 40.6 3.4 3.5 3.4 374 378 378 0.485 0.476 0.502 137 135 143 184.45 184 '.53 184.48 July August September 40.6 40.8 40.8 3.5 3.5 3.5 370 379 369 0.491 0.507 0.500 137 138 140 184.78 185.34 185.77 October November December 40.7 40.8 40.8 3.5 3.5 3.6 343 342 356 0.501 0.526 0.519 139 145 138 186.12 186.62 186.86 January February March 40.9 41.1 41.0 3.6 3.6 3.7 359 361 341 0.512 0.531 0.572 136 140 150 187.56 188.63 188.57 April June 40.7 41.0 41.0 3.5 3.8 3.7 324 326 327 0.583 0.601 0.614 149 153 152 187.58 189.74 190.02 July August September 41.0 41.0 40.6 3.8 3.8 3.7 327 297 286 0.626 0.663 0.661 153 161 158 190.69 191.40 188.46 October November December 41.2 41.2 41.0 3.9 3.9 3.8 284 293 312 0.669 0.682 0.662 162 D162 155 192.76 192.99 193.22 January February March 41.1 41.0 40.9 3.9 3.7 3.7 351 321 304 0.652 0.673 0.691 153 156 158 193.56 195.04 194.92 April June 41.2 41.0 41.1 3.9 3.9 3.9 296 307 292 0.701 0.700 0.711 157 160 156 196.33 196.09 197.14 July August September 41.1 41.0 41.2 3.9 3.9 3.9 325 298 283 0.714 0.700 0.688 159 160 153 198.25 197.60 198.21 [H>4.0 E>282 291 305 [H>0.735 0.716 pO.731 161 158 p!61 r!99.95 r!98.88 [H)pl99.98 May 1987 May 1988 May October November December 41.2 D41.2 p41.0 See note on page 60. Graphs of these series are shown on pages 12, 16, and 17. *Data exclude Puerto Rico, which is included i 2 See "New Features and Changes for This Issue, JANUARY 1989 r3.9 p3.9 figures published by the source agency, page iii. 61 CYCLICAL INDICATORS B I CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued MAJOR ECONOMIC PROCESS IJQj EMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT-Continued Minor Economic Process Timing Class Year and month Comprehensive Employment— Continued U,C,C 42. Number of persons engaged ia nonagricultural activities (Thous.) 1986 C, C, C 41. Employees on nonagricultural payrolls (Thous.) L, C, U 40. Employees on nonagricultural payrolls, goodsproducing industries (Thous.) Revised 2 Comprehensive Unemployment U, Lg, U 90. Ratio, civilian employment to population of working age L, Lg, U 37. Number of persons unemployed (Percent) (Thous.) Revised 2 Revised 2 January February March 105,592 105,393 105,644 98,788 98,887 98,973 24,832 24,752 24,688 59.86 59.58 59.73 7,808 8,398 8,347 April May June 105,798 106,013 106,463 99,136 99,262 99,170 24,679 24,587 24,499 59.73 59.80 60.01 8,398 8,443 8,475 L, Lg, U L, Lg, U 43. Unemployment rate 45. Average weekly insured unemployment rate, State programsi (Percent) (Percent) n Lg, Lg, Lg 91. Average duration of unemployment Lg, Lg, Lg 44. Unemployment rate, persons unemployed 15 weeks and over (Weeks) (Percent) Revised 2 (') 2.8 2.8 2.8 14.9 15.2 14.6 1.8 2.0 1.9 2.8 2.8 2.8 14.8 14.7 15.2 1.8 1.9 1.9 2.8 2.8 2.8 15.2 15.5 15.4 1.9 1.9 2.0 2.7 2.7 2.6 15.2 15.0 15.0 1.9 1.9 2.6 2.6 2.6 14.9 14.5 15.0 2.5 2.4 2.4 15.0 14.8 14.9 6.0 5.9 2.3 2.3 2.2 14.2 14.3 14.2 1.6 1.6 1.6 6.7 7.2 7.1 r7.2 7.2 r7.2 7.0 6.9 7.0 July August September 106,684 106,925 106,889 99,457 99,608 99,963 24,476 24,457 24,429 60.05 60.09 60.06 8,298 8,094 8,323 October November December 107,073 107,213 107,507 100,120 100,349 100,571 24,428 24,429 24,471 60.07 60.13 60.20 8,252 8,198 7,911 r7.0 January February March 107,823 108,066 108,238 100,795 101,016 101,260 24,501 24,533 24,536 60.28 60.39 60.43 7,904 7,848 7,804 r6.6 April May June 108,566 109,180 109,065 101,615 101,829 102,078 24,596 24,653 24,684 60.56 60.90 60.72 7,605 7,578 7,360 r6.4 July August September 109,377 109,890 109,704 102,430 102,672 102,906 24,788 24,851 24,902 60.83 61.00 60.88 7,271 7,226 7,112 r6.1 October November December 109,998 110,320 110,528 103,371 103,678 104,001 25,025 25,123 25,201 61.01 61.09 61.19 7,204 7,067 6,961 6.0 5.9 5.8 2.1 2.1 2.1 14.0 14.1 14.2 1.5 1.5 1.5 January February March 110,799 111,073 110,948 104,262 104,729 105,020 25,180 25,271 25,330 61.29 61.36 61.24 6,980 6,892 6,807 5.8 5.7 5.6 2.3 2.3 2.2 14.2 14.1 13.8 1.4 1.4 1.4 April May June 111,473 111,293 111,880 105,281 105,489 106,057 25,435 25,466 25,592 61.49 61.31 61.58 6,668 6,800 6,523 r5.5 2.1 2.1 2.1 13.5 13.8 13.2 1.3 1.3 July August September 111,974 112,061 112,194 106,271 106,425 106,737 25,663 25,639 25,648 61.54 61.60 61.64 6,624 6,797 6,614 5.4 5.6 5.4 2.1 2.1 2.0 13.5 13.5 13.5 October November December 112,335 112,709 0)112,816 r!06,973 r!07,377 0)pl07,656 r25,743 r25,844 0>p25,893 61.69 0)61.85 61.83 0)6,518 6,563 6,554 5.3 5.4 0)5.3 1.9 0)1.9 2.0 6.9 6.7 rl.8 1987 6.6 6.5 6.3 r6.2 1.8 1.8 1.7 rl.8 1.7 1.7 1988 5.6 r5.4 13.4 0)12.6 12.8 See note on page 60. Graphs of these series are shown on pages 14, 15, 17, and 18. 'Data exclude Puerto Rico, which is included in figures published by the source agency. 2 See "New Features and Changes for This Issue," page iii. 62 JANUARY 1989 rl.3 1.3 rl.3 1.3 1.3 1.2 0)1.2 CYCLICAL INDICATORS B I CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued MAJOR ECONOMIC PROCESS fj£ Minor Economic Process Timing Class PRODUCTION AND INCOME Industrial Production Comprehensive Output and Income C, C, C C.C.C 50. Gross national product in 1982 dollars Year and month Personal income 223. Current dollars (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) 52. Constant (1982) dollars (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) c, c, c 51. Personal income less transfer payments in 1982 dollars (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) C, C, C 53. Wages and salaries in 1982 dollars, mining, mfg., and construction (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) C,C,C 47. Index of industrial production (1977 = 100) C.C.C 73. Index of industrial production, durable manufactures (1977 = 100) C, L, L 74. Index of industrial production, nondurable manufactures (1977 = 100) C, C, C 49. Value of goods output in 1982 dollars (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) 1986 January February March 3,719.3 3,439.3 3,459.8 3,483.0 3,022.2 3,053.7 3,079.6 2,575.6 2,604.1 2,626.5 540.3 539.8 548.0 126.4 125.5 123.9 129.8 128.9 127.4 128.6 128.2 127.3 1,604!? April May June 3,71l!6 3,516.5 3,514.5 3,521.0 3,109.2 3,093.8 3,088.6 2,654.6 2,638.3 2,632.5 545.2 544.9 541.4 124.7 124.3 124.1 128.5 127.7 126.9 128.9 129.7 130.2 1,598!6 July August September 3,72l!3 3,532.9 3,545.4 3,561.7 3,090.9 3,093.7 3,091.8 2,629.0 2,636.0 2,634.2 542.5 544.0 542.7 124.8 124.9 124.5 128.1 127.9 128.4 130.6 131.1 130.3 1,595!3 October November December 3,734!7 3,579.6 3,595.5 3,623.6 3,101.9 3,107.6 3,126.5 2,643.2 2,649.2 2,666.8 548.2 544.9 545.0 125.3 125.7 126.8 128.6 129.0 129.7 131.2 131.7 133.4 1,597.8 January February March 3,776!7 3,641.3 3,683.5 3,703.4 3,114.9 3,142.9 3,143.8 2,655.8 2,682.5 2,685.4 543.0 542.4 545.6 126.2 127.1 127.4 129.3 130.8 131.5 132.7 132.9 133.7 1,616!2 April May June 3,823!6 3,725.0 3,736.3 3,747.1 3,146.1 3,142.4 3,138.3 2,687.1 2,678.7 2,678.7 539.8 541.7 542.1 127.4 128.2 129.1 130.9 131.4 132.0 134.6 135.7 136.9 1 5 645*.6 July August September 3,865.3 3,778.6 3,803.7 3,820.8 3,159.4 3,167.1 3,162.9 2,698.7 2,707.8 2,705.4 542.5 544.3 546.5 130.6 131.2 131.0 133.5 133.8 133.7 138.5 138.8 138.6 l,677!s October November December 3,923!6 3,897.2 3,884.1 3,939.0 3,212.9 3,194.2 3,236.6 2,754.2 2,736.8 2,778.2 549.0 551.3 549.5 132.5 133.2 133.9 136.8 136.7 137.3 138.1 139.6 141.3 1,713!9 January February March 3,956!i 3,921.8 3,946.7 3,985.9 3,214.6 3,235.0 3,251.1 2,745.6 2,764.0 2,776.3 550.2 552.7 559.4 134.4 134.4 134.7 137.9 138.4 138.8 141.4 141.1 141.7 1,748.1 April May June 3,985.2 4,001.0 4,021.4 4,044.9 3,242.3 3,243.1 3,254.1 2,770.0 2,773.7 2,784.6 556.7 557.0 560.7 135.4 136.1 136.5 139.7 141.5 141.7 142.3 142.1 142.6 1,762.4 July August September 4,009.4 4,075.3 4,091.8 4,114.7 3,265.5 3,270.8 3,270.8 2,795.1 2,799.8 2,802.1 562.4 560.7 562.3 138.0 138.5 138.6 142.9 143.2 143.8 144.6 145.1 145.3 1,768*.9 October November December [H)p4,029.2 r4,178.2 r4, 170.0 [H>p4, 207.1 r3,305.5 r3,293.8 [H>p3,315.3 r2, 835.0 r2,822.7 [H)p2,844.3 [H>r570.0 r566.6 p566.1 139.3 r!39.8 E)pl40.2 1987 1988 r!44.4 r!45.0 i>pl45.5 r!46.6 r!46.7 H>pl47.1 [H>pl,770.3 See note on page 60. Graphs of these series are shown on pages 14, 19, 20, and 40. JANUARY 1989 63 CYCLICAL INDICATORS CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued MAJOR ECONOMIC PROCESS H Minor Economic Process Timing Class Year and month PRODUCTION AND INCOME-Continued Qj CONSUMPTION, TRADE, ORDERS, AND DELIVERIES Capacity Utilization L, C, U 82. Capacity utilization rate, manufacturing Orders and Deliveries L,C, U 84. Capacity utilization rate, materials L, L, L Manufacturers' new orders, durable goods industries 7. Constant (1982) dollars 6. Current dollars (Percent) (Percent) L, L, L (Bil. dot.) (Bil. dot.) L, L, L L, L, L L, Lg, U 8. Manufacturers' new orders in 1982 dollars, consumer goods and materials 25. Change in manufacturers' unfilled orders, durable goods industries1 (Bil. dol.) (Bil. dol.) 96. Manufacturers' unfilled orders, durable goods industries (Bil. dol.) L, L, L 32. Vendor performance, companies receiving slower deliveries1© (Percent reporting) 1986 January February March 80.7 80.2 79.2 80.5 79.8 78.5 102.61 101.12 100.45 95.98 94.59 93.88 82.62 80.40 78.35 1.92 1.75 3.54 370.35 372.10 375.64 46 48 50 April May June 79.9 79.6 79.3 78.7 78.3 78.0 99.04 97.27 97.29 92.38 90.65 90.59 81.10 78.36 80.38 -2.12 -1.63 -2.62 373.52 371.89 369.27 50 55 50 July August September 79.7 79.6 79.4 78.1 77.9 77.7 99.72 96.40 102.20 92.77 89.59 94.89 79.04 79.86 82.49 -0.13 -2.22 369.13 366.91 368.93 54 51 52 October November December 79.5 79.6 80.2 77.9 78.5 79.1 100.06 100.74 104.53 92.56 93.02 96.52 81.32 79.47 84.68 -0.44 368.49 369.83 370.70 54 56 56 January February March 79.6 80.0 80.3 78.7 78.7 78.7 97.34 102.40 104.78 89.71 94.38 96.40 79.69 84.12 84.78 -3.28 -1.26 1.19 367.42 366.16 367.35 55 52 55 April May June 80.2 80.4 80.8 79.1 79.3 79.8 107.64 107.92 108.77 98.93 99.01 99.70 83.80 83.47 85.72 4.55 5.26 4.24 371.90 377.16 381.40 57 60 57 July August September 81.5 81.5 81.3 80.6 81.1 81.2 109.94 106.99 109.68 100.49 97.44 99.34 84.03 83.87 85.94 6.04 2.58 1.30 387.44 390.02 391.32 62 60 69 October November December 82.0 82.2 82.6 82.1 82.9 83.6 112.02 111.96 113.19 101.28 100.87 101.61 86.76 85.78 86.79 3.71 3.67 2.01 395.04 398.71 400.72 70 66 71 January February March 82.7 82.6 82.7 83.0 82.3 82.4 113.07 114.16 113.06 100.78 101.56 100.41 83.26 85.44 85.35 3.94 4.33 0.32 404.66 408.99 409.31 68 66 69 April May June 82.9 83.3 83.3 82.9 83.0 83.2 116.84 115.37 125.44 103.39 101.74 110.33 85.78 87.83 87.83 4.32 0.62 8.92 413.62 414.24 423.16 62 66 70 July August September 84.0 84.0 84.0 84.4 84.3 84.1 116.11 122.81 119.32 101.76 r!07.25 103.58 85.20 r87.64 87.85 2.99 4.94 1.29 426.15 431.09 432.38 68 64 66 r!22.79 r!22.94 JH>P130.85 r!06.59 r!06.08 (H)pll2.51 87.88 r89.52 H>p92.97 r436.73 r439.78 H)p446.16 60 56 56 2.02 1.34 0.87 1987 1988 October November December 84.3 r84.3 (H)p84.4 r84.5 r85.0 H)p85.0 See note on page 60. Graphs of these series are shown on pages 12, 20, and 21. The following series reached their high values before 1986: 64 r4.35 r3.04 p6.38 series 25 (9.31) and series 32 (72) in March 1984. JANUARY 1989 CYCLICAL INDICATORS B 1 CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued MAJOR ECONOMIC PROCESS Minor Economic Process Timing Class c, c, c C, C, C 56. Current dollars (Mil. dol.) 57. Constant (1982) dollars (Mil. dol.) C, L, C 75. Index of industrial production, consumer goods (1977 = 100) C, L, U U, L, U Sales of retail stores 54. Current dollars (Mil. dol.) FIXED CAPITAL INVESTMENT Formation of Business Enterprises Consumption and Trade Manufacturing and trade sales Year and month H Q| CONSUMPTION, TRADE, ORDERS, AND DELIVERIES-Continued 59. Constant (1982) dollars (Mil. dol.) L, C, C 55. Personal consumption expenditures, automobiles L, L, L 58. Index of consumer sentiment '(u) (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) (IstQ 1966=100) L, L, L 12. Index of net business formation (1967 = 100) L, L, L 13. Number of new business incorporations (Number) 1986 January February March 426,129 419,385 414,543 412,651 410,176 409,478 123.6 122.9 121.4 117,524 116,599 116,184 108,718 108,971 109,504 124.1 95.6 95.9 95.1 119.3 120.8 121.5 57,580 58,799 58,365 April May June 420,984 416,635 421,122 418,301 414,113 418,444 123.8 123.8 123.7 116,905 118,259 118,314 110,810 111,670 111,407 129.2 96.2 94.8 99.3 122.4 120.7 120.3 58,937 58,257 57,558 July August September 420,333 422,468 434,978 417,515 420,580 432,602 124.5 125.0 123.6 118,821 120,308 127,115 111,779 112,754 118,467 |H>151.9 97.7 94.9 91.9 120.7 119.3 120.4 58,002 56,541 58,002 October November December 426,853 427,284 438,060 423,097 424,320 433,420 124.8 125.0 126.6 120,778 120,470 126,011 112,877 112,589 116,893 139.8 95.6 91.4 89.1 119.7 118.3 121.9 57,410 56,924 0)65,318 January February March 425,169 442,039 442,633 420,569 434,812 433,419 125.5 126.4 126.7 117,246 123,292 123,680 108,360 113,424 113,053 i2o!i 90.4 90.2 90.8 118.1 120.5 122.0 55,071 58,868 60,248 April May June 444,300 446,897 451,532 432,710 431,990 435,135 125.5 127.3 127.2 124,609 124,797 126,461 113,384 113,041 114,032 127!7 92.8 91.1 91.5 120.7 119.8 120.3 57,736 56,627 57,559 July August September 453,508 458,052 462,889 436,259 438,850 442,296 128.9 129.4 127.7 127,122 129,448 128,211 114,524 116,201 114,679 144.4 93.7 94.4 93.6 120.4 121.5 122.8 57,500 57,773 57,746 October November December 462,938 r462,248 r464,306 441,184 r437,814 r439,676 129.0 129.4 129.8 127,036 r!27,456 r!28,527 113,324 rl!3,597 rl!4,552 128'.6 89.3 83.1 86.8 121.8 122.8 123.2 r55,559 55,901 54,451 January February March 464,772 468,675 476,922 440,040 444,041 449,906 131.2 131.3 131.2 128,769 130,121 132,259 114,767 116,491 117,773 133*.9 90.8 91.6 94.6 124.0 124.0 E)124.8 55,782 57,574 60,426 April May June 477,768 481,874 488,787 448,136 448,952 452,240 131.9 132.7 133.0 131,717 132,833 133,617 116,667 117,137 117,517 139.8 91.2 94.8 94.7 122.4 124.3 123.4 54,821 58,379 54,908 July August September 489,235 495,482 495,418 449,895 453,536 451,425 134.2 135.0 134.8 134,342 134,759 134,341 117,741 117,796 116,717 139.2 93.4 97.4 97.3 122.7 123.9 r!24.1 57,277 59,649 r56,126 October November December r501,906 [H)p503,835 (NA) r456,315 [H>p457,227 (NA) r!36.7 r!36.5 [H>pl37.2 r!36,560 r!37,809 0>pl38,025 rl!8,234 E>rll9,315 pl!9,296 p!40.4 94.1 93.0 91.9 r!24.6 r!23.2 p!23.9 56,557 p53,675 (NA) 1987 1988 See note on page 60. Graphs of these series are shown on pages 12, 14, 22, and 23. 'Series 58 reached its high value (101.0) in March 1984. ltd) JANUARY 1989 65 CYCLICAL INDICATORS B I CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued MAJOR ECONOMIC PROCESS U FIXED CAPITAL INVESTMENT-Continued Minor Economic Process Timing Class Business Investment Commitments L, L, L L,L,L 20. Constant (1982) dollars 10. Current dollars (Bil. dol.) L, L, L Manufacturers' new orders, nondefense capital goods industries Contracts and orders for plant and equipment Year and month L, L, L (Bil. dol.) 24. Current dollars (Bil. dol.) U, Lg, U L, C , U 9. Construction contracts awarded for commercial and industrial buildings x 2 27. Constant (1982) dollars Square feet of floor space (Bil. dol.) (Millions) Square meters of floor space 3 (Millions) 11. Newly approved capital appropriations, 1,000 manufacturing corporations (Bil. dol.) C, Lgr Lg 97. Backlog of capital appropriations, 1,000 manufacturing corporations 2 (Bil. dol.) 1986 January February March 30.19 32.52 31.14 32.16 35.95 33.88 25.70 27.36 26.84 28.13 31.33 30.05 72.89 82.65 73.01 6.77 7.68 6.78 23.39 April May June 30.64 30.10 30.29 32.90 32.88 33.67 25.86 25.67 25.61 28.66 28.95 29.53 82.17 78.06 76.57 7.63 7.25 7.11 19.99 July August September 30.64 30.02 31.05 33.22 33.15 33.81 26.07 25.53 26.35 29.18 29.18 29.66 73.43 76.48 76.51 6.82 7.10 7.11 20!20 October November December 31.76 32.03 33.50 34.03 35.11 36.56 27.31 27.31 28.36 30.07 30.91 31.97 73.54 83.00 76.45 6.83 7.71 7.10 22!l6 January February March 31.71 32.18 31.91 34.45 35.41 35.08 27.20 27.28 26.88 30.47 31.10 30.66 80.75 73.72 77.18 7.50 6.85 7.17 2l!44 April May June 33.44 34.97 35.54 37.33 38.97 39.40 28.73 30.63 29.75 33.19 35.17 34.35 78.14 76.74 84.28 7.26 7.13 7.83 32!26 7.87 7.87 7.99 29.56 92.*22 85.*77 80.71 69'.72 1987 69.17 74.64 July August September 37.50 34.89 34.54 41.82 39.17 39.15 32.28 29.85 29.39 37.29 34.81 34.69 84.76 84.70 85.96 October November December 35.50 35.42 r38.65 40.29 39.83 r42.99 30.22 30.66 33.03 35.70 35.73 38.14 82.21 75.90 84.37 7.64 7.05 7.84 35.91 37.67 38.90 36.40 42.89 43.91 41.35 33.87 33.82 31.92 39.63 39.59 37.56 69.43 91.89 73.91 6.45 8.54 6.87 30.85 37.76 36.04 40.19 43.77 41.54 45.67 33.75 31.52 35.46 40.33 37.72 41.68 69.80 69.98 75.49 6.48 6.50 7.01 [H>r40.69 July August September 40.56 [H>43.74 39.15 r45.99 !>r49.36 r43.61 36.21 E>38.81 34.86 42.34 E>45.22 40.02 81.82 76.46 75.29 7.60 7.10 6.99 p39'.09 October November December r38.45 r39.92 p43.16 r43.35 r44.40 p46.79 r34.62 r35.78 p38.58 r40.16 r40.95 p42.97 69.59 68.60 81.80 6.46 6.37 7.60 74.55 78.06 1988 January February March April May June 78.71 r87*.46 p92*.55 (NA) (NA) See note on page 60. Graphs of these series are shown on pages 12, 23, and 24. 1 This is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from McGraw-Hill Information Systems Company, F. W. Dodge Division. 2The following series reached their high values before 1986: series 9 (93.19 square feet and 8.66 square meters) in September 1985, and series 97 (99.88) in 2d quarter 1985. Converted to metric units by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. 66 JANUARY 1989 ltd* CYCLICAL INDICATORS CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued MAJOR ECONOMIC PROCESS y] FIXED CAPITAL Minor Economic Process Timing Class Residential Construction Commitments and Investment Business Investment Expenditures C, Lg, Lg C, Lg, Lg Expenditures for new plant and equipment Year and month INVESTMENT-Continued 61. Current dollars (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) 100. Constant (1982) dollars (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) C, Lg, Lg C, Lg, U 69. Machinery and equipment 76. Index of industrial pro- business construction expenditures ness equipment (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) (1977 = 100) C, Lg, C Lg, Lg, Lg C, Lg, C Gross private nonresidential fixed investment in 1982 dollars 86. Total (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) 87. Structures 1 (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) L, L, L 28. New private housing units startedl 88. Producers' durable equipment (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) (Ann. rate, thous.) L, L, L L, L, L 29. Index of new private 89. Gross private residential authorized by local building permits l in 1982 dollars (1967 = 100) (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) 1986 January February March 381*33 384.62 392.50 399.19 393.40 142.1 141.3 139.2 446.8 145.1 301.7 1,938 1,869 1,873 147.3 140.9 141.9 185.5 April May June 377*91 375.87 395.79 384.77 391.05 139.6 138.6 137.2 432*8 126.7 306.1 1,947 1,847 1,845 148.2 143.3 142.7 195.7 July August September 375.66 369*2i 385.28 387.20 381.72 139.4 139.1 139.6 425.6 121 .7 303.9 1,789 1,804 1,685 141.9 137.6 134.4 199*0 October November December 383*05 375.34 391.92 388.64 394.05 139.4 138.8 139.5 427*3 123.8 303*5 1,683 1,630 1,837 133.6 131.1 151.8 0)199.7 January February March 376*73 370.67 380.86 390.75 389.03 138.6 141.7 141.9 418*2 121.0 297.2 1 ,804 1*809 1,723 134.9 134*6 134.1 198.4 April May June 380.66 374*67 394.44 393.13 402.72 142.1 141.7 144.2 434*8 120.9 313.8 1,635 1,599 1,583 127.3 119*9 122.7 197.6 July August September 394.54 391.18 412.08 411.20 424.48 145.6 145.6 146.3 462.8 128.0 334*7 1,594 1,583 1,679 120.4 120.7 119.7 192.1 October November December 406*82* 403.05 416.93 416.55 423.85 148.7 148.3 149.8 464'8 132~1 332.7 1 ,538 1,661 1,399 lie's 1987 115.9 192.7 109.4 1988 January February March 412.02 408.91 430.32 429.21 436.50 151.2 152.4 153.3 473.4 124*0 349.4 1,382 1 ,519 1,529 99 5 114.0 117*7 189*5 April May June 426.94 424."07 442.03 451.37 452.12 154.6 156.9 158.1 490.2 125.0 365.1 1,584 1,393 1,465 115.6 114.5 119.1 189.6 July August September 0)436.01 0)431*62 r454.76 r459.38 r459.64 159.3 160.2 160.8 0)495.0 125.8 0)369.2 1,477 1,461 1,467 113.2 116.7 111.2 191.6 October November December a445.73 a44l".35 0)r460.87 p459.02 (NA) r!59.9 r!60.9 DP161.1 p49o"4 p366.4 rl,533 rl,558 pi ,524 120.9 120.9 124.9 pl97*4 pl24~0 See note on page 60. Graphs of these series are shown on pages 13, 24, and 25. 'The following series reached their high values before 1986: series 87 (151.4) in 2d quarter 1985, and series 28 (2,260) and series 29 (158.5) in February 1984. Anticipated expenditures for 1989: 1st quarter, 466.76; 2d quarter, 473.55. "Anticipated expenditures for 1989: 1st quarter, 462.28; 2d quarter, 469.61. JANUARY 1989 67 CYCLICAL INDICATORS B I CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued MAJOR ECONOMIC PROCESS ^j INVENTORIES AND INVENTORY INVESTMENT Minor Economic Process Timing Class Year Inventory Investment 30. Change in business inventories in 1982 dollars 1 36. Change in mfg. and trade inventories on hand and on order in 1982 dollars 1 Smoothed2 Actual and L, L, L L, L, L L, L, L Inventories on Hand and on Order 31. Change in mfg. and trade inventories month (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) (Ann. rate, (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) bil. dol.) L, L, L 38. Change in mfrs.' inventories, materials and supplies on hand and on order (Bil. dol.) Lg, Lg. Lg Lg, Lg, Lg Manufacturing and trade inventories 71. Current dollars (Bil. dol.) 70. Constant (1982) dollars (Bil. dol.) Lg, Lg, Lg 65. Manufacturers' inventories, finished goods (Bil. dol.) Lg, Lg, Lg 77. Ratio, mfg. and trade inventories to sales in 1982 dollars (Ratio) L, Lg, Lg 78. Mfrs.' inventories, materials and supplies on hand and on order (Bil. dol.) 1986 January February March 45.7 April 23.6 May June July August September October November December 3.0 24.56 27.68 52.16 15.84 20.58 29.61 9.0 -0.60 -3.6 22.1 1.35 25.76 -40.28 10.64 35.00 23.87 5.63 -30.7 21.02 -20.50 -21.92 -2.08 0.42 -1.71 30.0 -9.1 -18.2 7.2 8.8 -0.82 656.91 656.62 658.46 639.74 641.72 646.48 105.25 104.86 104.60 -1.21 -1.01 -1.15 659.06 656.50 657.24 649.07 647.07 648.17 104.54 104.34 103.52 1.55 -0.58 -0.70 659.74 658.98 657.46 650.88 649.15 646.21 103.92 103.36 102.43 1.56 102.42 103.44 102.60 1.53 1.54 1.24 238.30 239.65 238.83 1.55 1.56 H>1.58 237.62 236.61 235.46 1.56 1.55 234.89 234.19 235.43 1.54 1.49 19.81 -8.17 1.94 -7.34 -5.48 0.55 25.3 -6.2 -47.8 -0.86 0.91 1.92 659.57 659.05 655.06 647.49 646.69 644.74 34.87 7.33 46.87 7.04 12.13 22.20 74.2 19.2 37.7 -1.06 -0.59 1.82 661.25 662.85 665.99 649.35 649.72 651.98 103.41 103.02 103.23 1.50 236.33 235.74 237.56 27!s 19.90 54.35 46.36 27.20 32.54 40.29 26.5 76.0 38.9 2.82 1.09 2.71 668.20 674.54 677.78 652.61 656.22 657.99 102.94 103.23 102.57 1.51 1.52 1.51 240.38 241.47 244.17 July August September is!6 33.66 -5.96 46.16 42.50 34.74 24.65 40.1 13.1 53.9 2.76 1.75 2.20 681.12 682.21 686.70 659.44 658.09 660.52 103.84 104.66 104.04 1.51 246.94 248.68 250.88 October November December 67.1 82.87 43.50 64.86 32.82 49.27 60.63 0)96.9 r63.9 r86.7 2.18 1.02 1.04 694.78 r700.10 707.33 666.42 669.88 674.91 105.04 105.86 106.82 1.51 1.53 rl.54 253.06 254.08 255.11 66.6 40.56 47.59 11.38 56.69 50.32 42.09 51.1 37.9 30.0 3.81 0.25 1.32 711.59 714.75 717.25 679.86 683.23 684.90 107.42 108.16 108.08 1.55 1.54 1.52 258.92 259.18 260.49 35.3 5.05 23.10 18.18 27.26 17.26 14.31 45.2 52.4 66.4 2.52 2.83 2.21 721.02 725.38 730.92 686.17 687.95 689.75 108.09 108.43 109.02 1.53 1.53 1.53 263.01 265.83 268.04 -10.5 234.57 235.47 237.40 1.52 1.49 1987 January February March 29.8 April May June 1.49 1.50 1.49 1988 January February March April May June July August September 39.5 -5.23 r38.10 r28.57 13.73 r!4.52 r!8.75 59.7 95.5 76.9 1.43 1)3. 98 2.48 735.89 743.85 750.26 689.44 693.33 696.11 109.82 110.78 111.62 1.53 1.53 1.54 269.47273.45 275.93 October November December p29.2 r7.43 p!8.34 (NA) r22.59 p21.41 (NA) r3.9 p35.7 (NA) rl.90 p-0.46 (NA) r750.59 E>p753.56 (NA) r697.55 H)p699.39 (NA) rl!2.07 DP112.67 (NA) rl.53 pi. 53 (NA) B)r277.82 p277.36 (NA) See note on page 60. Graphs of these series are shown on pages 13, 15, 26, and 27. l The following series reached their high values before 1986: series 30 (83.4) in 1st quarter 1984, series 36 actual (91.94) in February 1984, and series 36 smoothed (79.42) in May 1984. 2This series is a weighted 4-term moving average (with weights 1,2,2,1) placed on the terminal month of the span. JANUARY 1989 CYCLICAL INDICATORS CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued MAJOR ECONOMIC PROCESS Q| PRICES, COSTS, AND PROFITS Minor Economic Process Timing Class Year and month Stock Prices Sensitive Commodity Prices L,L, L 98. Change in producer prices for sensitive crude and intermediate materials 1 (Percent) 23. Index of spot market prices, raw industrial, materials 2@ (1967 = 100) L, L, L L, L, L U, L, L 99. Change in sensitive materials prices Smoothed 3 Actual (Percent) (Percent) 19. Index of stock prices, 500 common stocks © (1941-43 = 10) Profits and Profit Margins L, L, L L, L, L Corporate profits after tax 16. Current dollars (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) 18. Constant (1982) dollars1 (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) L, C, L L, C, L Corporate profits after tax with IVA and CCAdj 1 4 79. Current dollars (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) 80. Constant (1982) dollars (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) L, L, L 22. Ratio, corporate domestic profits after tax to corporate domestic income1 (Percent) 1987 0.35 0.26 0.88 252.8 247.2 246.3 0.76 -0.57 0.19 1.08 0.51 0.16 264.51 280.93 292.47 13515 izils 172lo 157.6 4*.8 -0.26 2.52 1.78 253.8 272.6 276.4 0.85 |H>3.00 1.00 0.14 0.75 1.48 289.32 289.12 301.38 141.1 125J 172'.6 157.0 slo July August September 1.92 1.55 3.38 284.2 288.3 292.4 1.53 0.98 1.58 EDI. 73 1.51 1.27 310.09 D329.36 318.66 149.5 133.2 18211 issls 5l2 October November December 2.57 1.44 0.07 294.6 292.0 293.1 1.13 0.26 0.17 1.30 1.11 0.76 280.16 245.01 240.96 145.7 128.2 17919 162li il7 0.67 0.52 1.11 292.5 288.9 292.3 0.17 -0.17 0.77 0.36 0.13 0.16 250.48 258.13 265.74 14SL4 13L2 179li leils sis 143!l 18312 163.7 5*.5 14816 185.2 164.1 sli (NA) (NA) (NA) January February March April May June 1988 January February March April May June -1.02 0.15 0.22 297.3 301.6 309.5 0.08 0.51 0.84 0.24 0.34 0.46 262.61 256.12 270.68 16217 July August September 1.77 -0.22 -0.07 309.0 309.9 306.4 0.58 0.00 -0.33 0.56 0.56 0.28 269.05 263.73 267.97 E>169li October November December -0.51 0.15 0.29 305.0 309.7 0)317.2 -0.33 0.50 0.75 -0.07 -0.14 0.13 277.40 271.02 276.51 (NA) (NA) 1989 5 January February March 323.9 6 284.28 April May June July August September October November December See note on page 60 Graphs of these series are shown on pages 13, 28, and 29. 'The following series reached their high values before 1987: series 98 (3.55) in July 1983; series 18 (149.4) and series 22 (6.9) in 1st quarter 1984; and series 79 (204.0) and series 80 (196.0) in 1st quarter 1986. 2This is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from Commodity Research Bureau, Inc. 3See footnote 2 on page 68. "See footnote 1 on page 70. 5 Average for January 3 through 27. 6Average for January 4, 11, 18, and 25. JANUARY 1989 69 CYCLICAL INDICATORS CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued MAJOR ECONOMIC PROCESS Minor Economic Process Timing Class Year and month [U PRICES, COSTS, AND PROFITS-Continued Cash Flows Profits and Profit Margins— Continued IU.L L, L, L 81. Ratio, corporate domestic profits after tax with IVA and CCAdj to corp. domestic income 1 2 15. Profits after taxes per dollar of sales, manufacturing corporations (Percent) (Cents) L, L, L 26. Ratio, implicit price deflator to unit labor cost, nonfarm business sector L, L , L Unit Labor Costs and Labor Share L, L, L Corporate net cash flow 34. Current dollars Lg, Lg, Lg 63. Index of unit labor cost, business sector 35. Constant (1982) dollars (1977 = 100) (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) (1977 = 100) Lg, Lg, Lg Lg, Lg, Lg 68. Labor cost per unit of real gross domestic product, nonfinancial corporations (Dollars) Lg, Lg, Lg 62. Index of labor cost per unit of output, manufacturing Actual data Actual data as a percent of trend (1977 = 100) (Percent) 64. Compensation of employees as a percent of national income (Percent) 1986 January February March s!i 3!? 0)100.1 373!) 375*.7 163.3 o.iio 136.7 137.2 D140.2 99.6 100.0 0)102.2 72*.8 April May June s!i i!i 99.9 373.'l 374.3 164.9 o.ni 137.5 138.1 138.3 100.2 100.7 100.8 72.6 July August September y.9 s!s 99.7 379.6 380 ! 5 167.3 0.722 137.5 138.1 138.2 100.2 100.7 100.7 73.0 October November December l'.2 3^5 98.5 386.2 385! 7 169.6 0.725 139.2 138.0 136.9 101.5 100.6 99.8 B>73.4 January February March eis 4.6 98.8 385! 9 386!i 170'.5 0.730 138.1 137.6 137.9 100.7 100.3 100.5 73.0 April May June 6.5 4.9 99!i 393!9 393 '.8 170.8 0.730 136.9 136.6 136.2 99.8 99.6 99.3 73'.6 July August September 6.*7 sis 99.9 404! 2 404.3 171.1 0.729 135.2 135.8 137.4 98.5 99.0 100.1 72.9 October November December b'.Z i!4 99.1 402.4 402! 6 173.5 0.738 136.4 136.5 135.6 99.4 99.5 98.8 72!9 January February March o!e 0X3 99.1 407 '.3 405!6 173.5 0.736 135.9 136.4 137.9 99.1 99.4 100.5 73!! April May June 6.4 5.8 98*. 7 426!8 418!7 177.1 0.747 136.8 136.4 137.2 99.7 99.4 100.0 73*.2 July August September 6.1 p5.9 98 '.7 0)425'.7 .0)423'. 7 0)0.758 136.5 136.3 136.8 99.5 99.3 99.7 73*.3 October November December (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) r!38.5 r!37.6 p!37.3 rlOO.9 rlOO.3 plOO.l (NA) 1987 1988 0)179*. 1 (NA) (NA) See note on page 60. Graphs of these series are shown on pages 15, 29, and 30. IVA, inventory valuation adjustment; CCAdj, capital consumption adjustment. 2 Series 81 reached its high value (8.6) in 3d quarter 1985. X 70 JANUARY 1989 ito CYCLICAL INDICATORS CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued MAJOR ECONOMIC PROCESS Q MONEY AND CREDIT Minor Economic Process Timing Class Money L, L, L 85. Change in money supply Ml 1 L, C, U 102. Change in money supply M21 L, L, L 104. Change in total liquid assets1 Velocity of Money L, L, L 105. Money supply Ml in 1982 dollars L, L, I 106. Money supply M2 in 1982 dollars Year and C,C, C 107. Ratio, gross national product to money supply Ml1 Credit Flows C, Lg, C 108. Ratio, personal income to money supply M2 month (Percent) (Percent) (Percent) (Bil. dol.) (Bil. dol.) (Ratio) (Ratio) ILL 33. Net change in mortgage debt held by financial institutions and life insurance companies1 L L, L 112. Net change in business loans (Ann. rate, bit. dol.) (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) 1987 0)126.83 -19.49 -33.82 January February March 0.83 -0.01 0.40 0.71 0.05 0.18 0.70 0.30 -0.03 633.8 631.0 630.8 2,450.3 2,441.0 2,434.9 5.997 1.288 1.302 1.307 April May June 1.43 0.24 -0.59 0.46 0.06 0.09 0.38 0.67 0.35 637.0 636.4 631.0 2,435.6 2,428.8 2,424,7 6.024 1.308 1.311 1.314 -5.56 -7.10 July August September 0.20 0.39 0.13 0.23 0.40 0.40 0.07 0.54 0.61 630.7 630.5 629.2 2,424,1 2,423.4 2,424.9 6.124 1.322 1.326 1.326 -51.73 -34.25 22.25 October November December 1.16 -0.46 -0.25 0.48 0.07 0.16 0.69 0.29 0.05 634.4 629.9 627.2 2,428.3 2,423.8 2,423.6 1.346 1.341 1.358 38.02 e.igi r2,435.7 2,449.0 2,454.5 6.213 1.341 1.340 1.343 54.84 65.56 10.39 (NA) 3.54 5.00 61.02 1988 January February March 1.07 0.09 0.45 rO.84 rO.71 0.72 rO.88 0.72 0.61 631.8 631.3 631.0 April May June 0.94 0.01 0.82 0.79 0.38 0.48 0.99 0.72 0.37 633.8 631.8 634.9 2,461.6 2,462.8 H>2,466.5 6.246 1.338 1.339 1.341 118.04 10.86 17.81 July August September 0.75 0.03 0.95 0.45 0.15 H) 6 3 7 . 1 634.6 r632.5 2,464.0 2,458.7 r2,452.9 6.274 r-0.01 0.31 0.19 rO.09 1.347 1.350 1.356 20.33 rlO.51 r-23.15 rO.14 0.03 rO.ll rO.57 0.43 pO.76 pO.41 (NA) 2,445.7 r2,451.8 p2,453.9 p6.357 pO.52 630.8 629.0 p630.2 October November December Drl.376 rl.365 pi. 372 r26.17 r23.77 p!08.26 1989 2 January February March 0.14 April May June July August September October November December See note on page 60. Graphs of these series are shown on pages 13, 31, and 32. lr The following series reached their high values before 1987: series 85 (2.69) in December 1986, series 102 (2.66) in January series 104 (1.20) in March 1984, series 107 (7.035) in 4th quarter 1984, and series 33 (143.70) in September 1984. 2 Average for weeks ended January 2, 9, and 16. JANUARY 1989 1983, 71 CYCLICAL INDICATORS CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued MAJOR ECONOMIC PROCESS Q MONEY AND CREDIT-Continued Minor Economic Process Timing Class Year and month Credit Flows— Continued L, L, L 113. Net change in consumer installment credit1 (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) L, L, L 111. Change in business and consumer credit outstandingl (Ann. rate, percent) Bank Reserves Credit Difficulties L, U 110. Funds raised by private nonfinancial borrowers in credit markets1 (Ann. rate, mil. dol.) L, L, L 14. Current liabilities of business failures1© (Mil. dol.) L,L, L 39. Percent of consumer installment loans delinquent 30 days and over 1 (Percent) Interest Rates L,U,U L, Lg, U 93. Free reserves x © 94. Member bank borrowings from the Federal Reserve1© (Mil. dol.) (Mil. dol.) L, Lg, Lg 119. Federal funds rate1© (Percent) C, Lg, Lg 114. Discount rate on new issues of 91-day Treasury bills1© (Percent) 1987 -10.39 31.74 22.08 7.0 1.9 2.1 381,680 3,220.7 3,586.0 3,249.5 2.43 2.40 2.28 488 656 388 580 556 527 6.43 6.10 6.13 5.45 5.59 5.56 April May June 55.44 13.93 79.74 6.7 4.6 7.9 3,222.5 2,488.5 3,332.4 2.36 2.43 2.35 -166 606,320 993 1,035 776 6.37 6.85 6.73 5.76 5.75 5.69 July August September 67.61 56.14 57.46 1.6 4!l 8.9 562,548 2,036.1 1,968.2 2,967.2 2.34 2.37 2.35 89 385 -147 672 647 940 6.58 6.73 7.22 5.78 6.00 6.32 October November December 47.39 21.59 51.54 9.1 5.8 613,960 r3,004.2 pi, 610. 6 p5,512.2 2.66 2.54 2.47 186 298 252 943 625 777 7.29 6.69 6.77 6.40 5.81 5.80 504,596 p3, 894.1 p4,625.5 p3, 292.0 2.44 2.32 2.19 213 737 -823 1,082 396 1,752 6.83 6.58 6.58 5.90 5.69 5.69 621,400 p3,065.6 p2,316.5 p2,453.4 2.31 2.32 2.34 -2,134 -1,538 -2,195 2,993 2,578 3,083 6.87 7.09 7.51 5.92 6.27 6.50 p574,604 p4,582.8 p2,291.2 p3, 533.0 2.45 2.38 2.42 -2,433 -2,288 -1,867 3,440 3,241 2,839 7.75 8.01 8.19 6.73 7.02 7.23 pi, 825. 5 (NA) -1,237 2,299 2,861 pi, 716 8.30 8.35 8.76 7.34 7.68 8.09 January February March 11.4 44 414 1988 January February March 74.83 60.42 62.29 13.2 10.1 April May June 46.21 35.78 96.64 12.5 r9.7 July August September 43.45 63.89 rlO.7 October November December r46.87 p53.75 0.02 (NA) 6.3 6.2 r7.9 r2.7 r7.9 p6.4 (NA) (NA) (NA) r-1,742 p-676 1989 January February March 2 3 9.12 8.29 April May June July August September October November December See note on page 60. Graphs of these series are shown on pages 13, 32, 33, and 34. x The following series reached their high values before 1987: series 113 (132.08) in September 1985; series 111 (22.6) in June 1984, series 110 (927,324) in 4th quarter 1985; series 14 (829.2) in July 1985; series 39 (1.78) in February 1984; and series 93 (-7,328), series 94 (8,017), series 119 (11.64), and series 114 (10.49) in August 1984. 2Average for weeks ended January 4, 11, 18, and 25. 3 Average for weeks ended January 5, 12, 19, and 26. 72 JANUARY 1989 CYCLICAL INDICATORS CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued MAJOR ECONOMIC PROCESS Qj MONEY AND CREDIT-Continued Minor Economic Process Timing Class . . . . . . Year and month Outstanding Debt Interest Rates— Continued Lg, Lg, Lg C, Lg, Lg U, Lg, Lg 116. Yield on new issues of high-grade corporate bonds1© 115. Yield on long-term Treasury bonds1® 117. Yield on municipal bonds, 20bond average1© (Percent) (Percent) (Percent) Lg, Lg, Lg Lg, Lg, Lg 118. Secondary market yields on FHA mortgages1© 67. Bank rates on short-term business loans1© (Percent) (Percent) Lg, Lg, Lg Lg, Lg, Lg 109. Average prime rate charged by banks1© 66. Consumer installment credit outstanding (Percent) (Mil. dol.) Lg, Lg, Lg Lg, Lg, Lg Commercial and industrial loans outstanding 72. Current dollars (Mil. dol.) 101. Constant (1982) dollars (Mil. dol.) Lg, Lg, Lg 95. Ratio, consumer installment credit outstanding to personal income (Percent) 1987 January February March 8.59 8.58 8.68 7.60 7.69 7.62 6.61 6.61 6.66 8.79 8.81 8.94 7!46 7.50 7.50 7.50 570,967 573,612 575,452 369,837 368,213 365,395 367,997 364,567 361,062 15.68 15.57 15.54 April May June 9.36 9.95 9.64 8.31 8.79 8.63 7.55 8.00 7.79 10.02 10.61 10.33 8.24 7.75 8.14 8.25 580,072 581,233 587,878 365,690 365,227 364,635 358,871 355,972 354,015 15.57 15.56 15.69 July August September 9.70 10.09 10.63 8.70 8.97 9.58 7.72 7.82 8.26 10.38 10.55 11.22 8*.20 8.25 8.25 8.70 593,512 598,190 602,978 360,324 357,470 359,324 348,139 344,383 346,503 15.71 15.73 15.78 October November December 10.80 10.09 10.22 9.61 8.99 9.12 8.70 7.95 7.96 10.90 10.76 10.63 8^47 9.07 8.78 8.75 606,927 608,726 613,021 362,492 362,909 367,994 348,215 348,281 353,161 15.57 15.67 15.56 9.81 9.43 9.68 8.82 8.41 8.61 7.69 7.49 7.74 10.17 9.86 10.28 8*.37 8.75 8.51 8.50 619,258 624,294 629,485 372,564 378,027 378,893 356,180 360,713 361,194 15.79 15.82 15.79 April May June 9.92 10.25 10.08 8.91 9.24 9.04 7.81 7.91 7.78 10.46 10.84 10.65 8^49 8.50 8.84 9.00 633,336 636,318 644,372 388,730 389,635 391,119 367,420 365,854 364,850 15.83 15.82 15.93 July August September 10.12 10.27 10.03 9.20 9.33 9.06 7.76 7.79 7.66 10.66 10.74 10.58 9.'75 9.29 9.84 10.00 647,993 653,317 653,319 392,813 r393,689 r391,760 364,053 r364,527 r362,405 15.90 D15.97 15.88 October November December 9.86 9.98 10.05 8.89 9.07 9.13 7.47 7.46 7.61 10.23 10.63 10.81 lo'.ii 10.00 10.05 10.50 r657,226 [H)p661,705 (NA) r393,941 395,922 [R>p404,944 r364,086 365,579 [H>p371,508 r!5.73 p!5.87 (NA) 1988 January February March 1989 January February March 2 9.92 2 9.08 3 7.35 4 10. 50 April May June July August September October November December See note on page 60. Graphs of these series are shown on pages 15, 34, and 35. 'The following series reached their high values before 1987: series 116 (14.49), series 115 (13.00), and series 117 (10.67) in June 1984; series 118 (15.01) in May 1984; series 67 (13.29) in 3d quarter 1984; and series 109 (13.00) in August 1984. 2 Average for weeks ended January 6, 13, 20, and 27. 3Average for weeks ended January 5, 12, 19, and 26. ^Average for January 2 through 27. ItO JANUARY 1989 73 CYCLICAL INDICATORS DIFFUSION INDEXES AND RATES OF CHANGE Q| DIFFUSION INDEXES Year and month 950. Eleven leading indicator components (series 1, 5, 8, 19, 20, 29,32,36,99, 106, 111)1 1-month span 6-month span 951. Four roughly coincident indicator components (series 41, 47, 51, 57) 1-month span 952. Six lagging indicator components (series 62, 77, 91, 95, 101, 109) 6-month span 1-month span 6-month span 961. Average weekly hours of production or nonsupervisory workers, 20 manufacturing industries 1-month span 9-month span 962. Initial claims for unemployment insurance, State programs, 51 areas 2 1-month span 963. Employees on private nonagricultural payrolls, 186 industries 9-month span 1-month span 6-month span 1986 January February March 59.1 45.5 59.1 59.1 50.0 54.5 75.0 75.0 50.0 100.0 75.0 75.0 58.3 75.0 66.7 50.0 66.7 50.0 32.5 17.5 80.0 80.0 50.0 37.5 58.8 52.9 64.7 49.0 39.2 51.0 57.0 47.3 49.5 48.1 47.3 43.8 April May June 63.6 50.0 59.1 54.5 63.6 63.6 100.0 25.0 37.5 75.0 75.0 100.0 0.0 66.7 33.3 41.7 50.0 33.3 45.0 42.5 45.0 65.0 50.0 40.0 25.5 74.5 56.9 56.9 56.9 67.6 50.8 51.9 46.8 42.7 43.2 47.0 July August September 59.1 50.0 50.0 68.2 72.7 90.9 87.5 100.0 75.0 75.0 100.0 100.0 50.0 50.0 41.7 50.0 41.7 50.0 40.0 80.0 65.0 75.0 55.0 67.5 34.3 78.4 17.6 92.2 45.1 90.2 51.9 54.1 51.4 46.5 50.0 55.9 October November December 54.5 81.8 81.8 72.7 81.8 90.9 75.0 87.5 100.0 75.0 100.0 100.0 91.7 41.7 25.0 75.0 33.3 58.3 47.5 77.5 45.0 90.0 77.5 55.0 71.6 80.4 7.8 70.6 70.6 94.1 53.0 58.9 58.9 53.2 55.9 58.4 January February March 36.4 45.5 63.6 72.7 72.7 63.6 25.0 100.0 50.0 100.0 100.0 50.0 66.7 25.0 25.0 50.0 58.3 50.0 72.5 72.5 22.5 70.0 75.0 85.0 88.2 35.3 52.0 69.6 82.4 78.4 50.8 59.2 61.1 64.6 64.3 63.0 April May June 40.9 45.5 59.1 72.7 63.6 72.7 62.5 50.0 87.5 100.0 100.0 100.0 75.0 50.0 58.3 50.0 66.7 50.0 7.5 95.0 50.0 77.5 42.5 77.5 73.5 78.4 15.7 80.4 94.1 90.2 62.4 62.4 61.6 70.3 72.4 77.3 July August September 50.0 45.5 45.5 72.7 72.7 63.6 100.0 100.0 50.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 41.7 41.7 83.3 50.0 66.7 50.0 62.5 52.5 25.0 55.0 62.5 87.5 64.7 84.3 37.3 92.2 59.8 62.7 70.8 62.2 68.1 78.4 79.7 82.7 October November December 81.8 22.7 50.0 54.5 59.1 40.9 75.0 50.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 66.7 75.0 25.0 83.3 83.3 83.3 87.5 35.0 25.0 35.0 50.0 60.0 86.3 23.5 5.9 27.5 62.7 80.4 67.3 67.8 68.4 77.8 77.0 76.5 r36.4 54.5 54.5 31.8 50.0 63.6 75.0 87.5 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 r83.3 r66.7 50.0 83.3 75.0 r83.3 55.0 30.0 52.5 45.0 65.0 27.5 80.4 29.4 60.8 47.1 41.2 31.4 61.6 61.6 62.2 73.5 70.3 70.3 April May June 63.6 31.8 86.4 72.7 77.3 54.5 50.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 75.0 25.0 75.0 83.3 66.7 r83.3 82.5 22.5 60.0 25.0 55.0 r50.0 94.1 29.4 29.4 25.5 86.3 96.1 63.8 58.1 68.9 73.8 70.5 68.4 July August September 22.7 59.1 54.5 40.9 72.7 44.4 75.0 100.0 75.0 100.0 100.0 "100.0 25.0 r66.7 58.3 r58.3 75.0 5 100.0 50.0 37.5 77.5 62.5 p40.0 68.6 22.5 76.5 r66.7 p86.3 61.4 51.9 49.5 r-64.9 r72.4 p71.1 October November December r54.5 36.4 3 72.2 1987 1988 January February March 3 100.0 75.0 "100.0 5 58.3 75.0 50.0 42.5 r42.5 plO.O 72.5 r5.9 p76.5 r62.4 r71.1 p63.2 NOTE: Figures are the percent of series components rising. (Half of the unchanged components are counted as rising.) Data are centered within the spans: 1-month indexes are placed on the 2d month, 6month indexes on the 4th month, and 9-month indexes on the 6th month of the span; 1-quarter indexes are placed on the 1st month of the 2d quarter and 4-quarter indexes on the 2d month of the 3d quarter. Series are seasonally adjusted except for those, indicated by (u), that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are listed at the back of this issue. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available. Graphs of these series are shown on page 36. 1 Values of this index prior to January 1984 include a twelfth component, series 12, which has been suspended from the current index. 2 Figures are the percent of components declining. 3 Excludes series 36 and 111, for which data are not available. ^Excludes series 57, for which data are not available. 5 Excludes series 77 and 95, for which data are not available. 74 JANUARY 1989 CYCLICAL INDICATORS DIFFUSION INDEXES AND RATES OF CHANGE—Continued Qj DIFFUSION INDEXES-Continued Year and month 964. Manufacturers' new orders, 34 durable goods industries 1-month span 9-month span 965. Newly approved capital appropriations in 1982 dollars, 17 manufacturing industries 1-quarter span Revised 1987 January February March 41.2 70.6 47.1 91.2 73.5 89.7 41 April May June 54.4 48.5 61.8 80.9 73.5 82.4 82 July August September 67.6 44.1 58.8 82.4 73.5 73.5 59 October November December 52.9 44.1 55.9 76.5 73.5 73.5 65 January February March 47.1 55.9 41.2 73.5 85.3 76.5 44 April May June 57.4 55.9 55.9 73.5 70.6 r79.4 65 July August September 41.2 67.6 50.0 r79.4 p76.5 p38 October November December r52.9 r66.2 p66.2 966. Industrial production, 24 industries 4-Q moving average 3 1-month span 6-month span 967. Spot market prices, 13 raw industrial materials (u) 968. Stock prices, 500 common stocks1@ 1-month span 9-month span 1-month span 9-month span 960. Net profits, manufacturing, about 600 companies 2 © (4-quarter span) 3 ( ) 91.7 89.6 75.0 84.6 42.3 30.8 88.5 96.2 80.8 98.8 95.2 83.3 87.8 92.7 92.5 *74 r61 31.2 64.6 60.4 75.0 87.5 83.3 61.5 88.5 57.7 73.1 96.2 80.8 39.3 46.3 93.9 97.5 97.5 62.5 *76 62 50.0 70.8 70.8 91.7 91.7 95.8 73.1 76.9 61.5 88.5 88.5 76.9 81.3 95.0 8.8 10.0 12.5 10.0 *78 63 70.8 62.5 50.0 83.3 79.2 83.3 53.8 46.2 50.0 53.8 69.2 69.2 0.0 0.0 53.8 17.5 8.0 12.8 *77 r58 75.0 79.2 66.7 83.3 75.0 70.8 42.3 34.6 65.4 69.2 61.5 61.5 75.0 88.8 37.0 5.1 7.7 52.6 'so p53 52.1 54.2 70.8 79.2 60.4 58.3 91.7 87.5 r79.2 57.7 65.4 65.4 61.5 61.5 61.5 37.2 3.8 97.4 84.6 91.0 92.3 83.3 60.4 r56.3 79.2 83.3 p95.8 42.3 46.2 38.5 57.7 53.8 65.4 30.8 28.2 69.2 79.5 64.1 1988 (NA) (NA) r62.5 r58.3 p60.4 42.3 69.2 76.9 4 (NA) 84.6 23.1 74.4 1989 January February March "73.1 April May June July August September October November December See note on page 74. Graphs of these series are shown on page 37. 1 Based on 42 industries through April 1987, on 41 industries through June 1987, on 40 industries through March 1988, and on 39 industries thereafter. Data for component industries are not shown in table C2 but are available from the source. 2 This is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from Dun £ Bradstreet, Inc. 3 See "New Features and Changes for This Issue," page iii. ^Based on the average for January 3, 10, 17, and 24. JANUARY 1989 75 CYCLICAL INDICATORS DIFFUSION INDEXES AND RATES OF CHANGE—Continued Q| DIFFUSION INDEXES-Continued Year and quarter 970. Expenditures for new plant and equipment, 21 industries a. Actual expenditures (1-Qspan) b. Later projections c. Early projections (1-Q span) (1-Q span) 971. New orders, manufacturing1© 972. Net profits, manufacturing and trade 1 ® Actual Actual Anticipated (4-Q span) (4-Q span) 973. Net sales, manufacturing and trade 1 © Actual Anticipated (4-Q span) (4-Q span) (4-Q span) Anticipated (4-Q span) 1986 First quarter Second quarter . . . . Third quarter Fourth quarter . . . . 19.0 57.1 28.6 71.4 47.6 66.7 40.5 76.2 76.2 66.7 45.2 38.1 76 76 74 75 82 83 84 78 70 71 70 70 78 81 81 78 72 73 74 74 81 84 83 80 50.0 69.0 83.3 69.0 52.4 88.1 85.7 76.2 61.9 76.2 57.1 47.6 78 83 82 82 80 83 85 86 74 74 75 76 78 81 83 82 78 80 82 83 82 83 85 86 81.0 73.8 64.3 (NA) 95.2 69.0 71.4 42.9 71.4 57.1 50.0 52.4 82 82 82 (NA) 84 84 86 84 76 76 76 (NA) 82 82 82 84 80 80 82 (NA) 85 84 86 85 1987 First quarter Second quarter . . . . Third quarter Fourth quarter . . . . 1988 First quarter Second quarter . . . . Third quarter Fourth quarter . . . . 1989 76.2 First quarter Second quarter . . . . Third quarter Fourth quarter . . . . 84 80 82 HM DIFFUSION INDEXES-Continued Year and quarter 974. Number of employees, manufacturing and trade1© Anticipated Actual Anticipated Actual 975. Level of inventories, manufacturing and trade1© Anticipated Actual Anticipated Actual Anticipated Actual 978. Selling prices, retail trade 1 © 977. Selling prices, wholesale trade 1 © 976. Selling prices, manufacturing J@ (4-Q span) (4-Q span) (4-Q span) (4-Q span) (4-Q span) 59 60 58 63 62 65 62 59 59 59 58 62 64 64 62 62 60 62 66 62 62 62 64 64 60 60 61 62 64 64 68 70 60 66 67 66 63 70 72 70 63 68 66 69 67 67 72 72 64 64 68 70 62 64 62 63 74 74 74 (NA) 70 69 74 72 74 73 74 (NA) 72 72 71 68 70 70 73 (NA) 68 71 70 72 (4-Q span) (4-Q span) (4-Q span) (4-Q span) 58 59 60 58 59 60 59 58 62 61 62 60 58 58 60 57 60 61 64 64 60 59 62 62 64 65 66 68 63 62 62 (NA) 63 62 62 61 67 70 69 (NA) (4-Q span) 1986 First quarter Second quarter . . . . Third quarter Fourth quarter . . . . 1987 First quarter Second quarter . . . . Third quarter Fourth quarter . . . . 1988 First quarter Second quarter . . . . Third quarter Fourth quarter . . . . 1989 First quarter Second quarter . . . . Third quarter Fourth quarter . . . . 62 63 70 70 72 NOTE: Figures are the percent of series components rising. (Half of the unchanged components are counted as rising.) Data are placed at the end of the span. Series are seasonally adjusted except for those, indicated by (g), that appear to contain no seasonal movement. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; and "NA", not available. Graphs of these series are shown on page 38. 1 This is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from Dun § Bradstreet, Inc. Dun £ Bradstreet diffusion indexes are based on surveys of about 1,400 business executives. 76 JANUARY 1989 CYCLICAL INDICATORS DIFFUSION INDEXES AND RATES OF CHANGE—Continued JQ SELECTED DIFFUSION INDEX COMPONENTS: Basic Data and Directions of Change Diffusion index components 1988 May June August July September1" October 1 " November1" December 961. AVERAGE WEEKLY HOURS OF PRODUCTION OR NONSUPERVISORY WORKERS, MANUFACTURING x (Hours) All manufacturing industries 41.0 Percent rising of 20 components (22) + 41.1 o (60) + o 41.1 41.0 (50) (38) 40.5 39.7 40.0 39.0 39.9 39.6 + + + 41.2 (78) 41.2 o (42) 41.2 41.0 (42) (10) Durable goods industries: Lumber and wood products Furniture and fixtures 40.1 39.5 + o Stone, clay, and glass products Primary metal industries + 42.3 43.6 + o 42.4 43.6 41.9 42.6 + 42.0 42.5 41.0 43.0 + o 41.1 43.0 41.4 39.2 41.3 39.3 + + 40.1 39.5 + + 40.3 39.8 + 40.8 36.8 + 40.7 36.9 + o 41.1 36.9 43.3 37.7 + 43.2 38.0 o o 43.2 38.0 42.0 44.1 + + 42.4 45.1 + 42.3 45.3 41.6 36.9 o + 41.6 37.0 Fabricated metal products Machinery, except electrical Electric and electronic equipment Transportation equipment o Instruments and related products Miscellaneous manufacturing 40.2 39.4 + + + 42.1 43.4 o + 42.1 43.5 + + 42.3 44.0 41.7 43.0 + 41.8 42.4 + + 42.0 42.7 40.7 39.4 + 40.3 39.5 42.5 43.8 + 42.6 43.7 41.9 42.6 + 42.1 42.4 + 40.6 39.3 42.1 43.4 o 41.9 42.4 41.0 42.6 + 40.8 42.7 + + 41.0 43.3 o o 41.0 43.3 o + 41.0 43.4 40.7 43.0 41.8 39.2 41.5 39.2 + o 41.6 39.2 + o 41.9 39.1 + 41.5 39.3 41.4 39.0 40.5 39.2 + 40.4 40.1 + 40.3 41.2 + + 40.5 39.4 o 41.1 36.8 o + o o 43.2 38.0 Nondurable goods industries: Food and kindred products Tobacco manufacturers 2 o + Textile mill products Apparel and other textile products Paper and allied products Printing and publishing o Chemicals and allied products Petroleum and coal products 2 Rubber and miscellaneous plastics products Leather and leather products o 41.7 37.3 + 40.6 41.3 o 40.6 40.3 41.1 37.1 41.0 36.8 o + 41.0 37.0 + + 43.3 38.1 43.2 38.0 43.0 37.8 42.9 37.7 42.1 44.6 o + 42.1 44.7 + o 42.5 44.7 42.4 44.1 42.3 43.8 41.5 37.6 + 41.6 37.5 + 41.5 37.9 41.7 37.5 41.4 37.1 + 122,942 + 130,846 964. MANUFACTURERS' NEW ORDERS, DURABLE GOODS INDUSTRIES x (Millions of dollars) All durable goods industries - 115,369 Percent rising of 34 components + 125,442 (56) - 116,112 (56) + 122,806 41.0 36.8 3 - 119,321 (68) (41) + o + 122,791 (50) (53) (66) (66) Primary metals Fabricated metal products + + 12,348 12,038 - 12,271 11,958 - 12,103 11,471 + 11,794 11,638 + + 12,496 12,007 + 12,428 12,026 + + 12,631 12,400 + + 13,303 13,288 Machinery except electrical Electrical machinery + 20,969 18,865 + - 22,018 18,461 + 21,408 19,039 + - 22,851 19,025 - 21,459 18,629 + 21,181 18,977 + + 21,385 20,115 + 20,707 20,341 Transportation equipment Other durable goods industries - 28,313 22,836 + + 37,735 22,999 - 29,239 22,852 + - 34,707 22,791 + 31,618 23,112 + + 34,898 23,281 + 32,398 24,013 + + 38,882 24,325 NOTE: To facilitate interpretation, the month-to-month directions of change are shown along with the numbers: ( + ) = rising, (o) = unchanged, and (-) = falling. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; and "NA", not available. 1 Unless otherwise noted, data are seasonally adjusted by the source agency. 2 Not seasonally adjusted. 3 Data for most of the diffusion index components are not available for publication, but they are included in the totals and directions of change for the six major industry groups shown here. ltd) JANUARY 1989 77 CYCLICAL INDICATORS DIFFUSION INDEXES AND RATES OF CHANGE—Continued ^Q SELECTED DIFFUSION INDEX COMPONENTS: Basic Data and Directions of Change-Continued 1988 D i f f u s i o n index components June May 966. + All industrial production Percent rising of 24 components 2 136.1 August July INDEX OF INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION (1977-100) + 136.5 + + October r November r + + + DecemberP x 138.5 138.6 139.3 139.8 (62) (56) (60) (83) (58) (60) 138.0 September 1 ^ + 140.2 (58) (60) Durable manufactures: 133.8 164.9 o 133.5 164.9 + - 137.2 164.5 + + 138.6 165.0 (NA) (NA) 122.6 90.8 o + 122.6 93.1 122.5 94.3 + + 124.6 92.4 (NA) 92.0 + + 122.1 174.1 + + 122.5 174.8 + - 122.6 173.2 + + 124.2 174.6 + + 124.5 174.7 181.5 131.9 + 182.2 131.8 + 181.8 132.7 + + 182.9 134.8 + 182.3 135.6 + 181.7 138.0 + + 156.4 107.8 + + 156.8 108.3 + + 157.8 108.5 + - 159.9 107.7 + 159.8 109.0 141.3 104.5 + - 143.3 100.6 o + 143.3 105.1 - 143.2 105.0 + 145.2 103.7 + 145.5 (NA) (NA) (NA) + 114.3 109.3 + + 117.1 109.4 116.4 108.9 + 116.2 109.9 + - 117.0 109.5 116.5 (NA) (NA) (NA) 148.6 182.3 + + 152.3 184.9 + 151.0 186.7 151.7 187.8 - + 150.9 188.0 + + 150.5 94.1 + + 153.4 95.0 + + 154.8 96.0 + 155.3 93.7 + + 157.0 96.3 + + Lumber and products Furniture and fixtures + + 139.8 160.5 Clay, glass, and stone products Primary metals + + 121.5 89.2 + Fabricated metal products Nonelectrical machinery + + 119.8 170.3 Electrical machinery Transportation equipment + + Instruments Miscellaneous manufactures 136.4 161.2 + + 136.6 162.9 123.4 87.5 122.2 91.5 + + + + 120.4 171.2 + + 121.7 173.1 179.1 133.1 + 179.5 132.8 + - + + 151.3 106.0 + + 153.0 107.6 + o 141.0 107.2 + - 114.6 108.6 + + + 160.5 (NA) Nondurable manufactures: Foods Tobacco products Textile mill products Apparel products Paper and products Printing and publishing + - 149.5 180.7 Chemicals and products Petroleum products + 149.1 95.2 + Rubber and plastics products Leather and products + 173.4 57.1 + + 174.4 58.9 + + 175.4 59.1 + 175.3 59.4 o + 175.3 59.9 + + 177.3 61.0 Metal mining Coal 86.0 127.8 82.2 126.9 + + 94.0 141.5 + - 96.6 137.2 + + 99.1 142.2 + - 100.4 138.5 + (NA) 149.7 Oil and gas extraction Stone and earth minerals 94.6 104.1 + - 95.8 137.4 + 93.3 140.2 + 93.2 141.3 - 92.0 139.7 91.3 142.9 - 90.8 142.2 150.7 186.7 o (NA) 186.7 158.1 94.7 + (NA) 97.7 (NA) (NA) 178.9 60.2 Mining: NOTE: To facilitate interpretation, the month-to-month directions of change are shown along with the numbers: preliminary: and "NA", not available. 2 78 ( * ) rising, (o) + unchanged, and ( - ) - falling, + (NA) (NA) The "r" indicates revised: "p" Data are seasonally adjusted by the source agency. Where actual data for separate industries are not available, estimates are used to compute the percent rising. (NA) 151.8 JANUARY 1989 CYCLICAL INDICATORS C I DIFFUSION INDEXES AND RATES OF CHANGE—Continued ^9 SELECTED D I F F U S I O N I N D E X COMPONENTS: Basic Data and Directions of Change-Continued D i f f u s i o n index components 1989 1988 May June July August September October November December January 1 967. I N D E X OF SPOT MARKET PRICES, RAW INDUSTRIALS 2 R a w i n d u s t r i a l s price index (1967 100) . . . . + Percent rising of 13 components 301.6 + (65) 309.5 309.0 (65) (42) + 309.9 - (46) 306.4 - 305.0 + 309.7 (42) (38) + 317.2 + 323.9 (73) (77) (69) Dollars Copper scrap Lead scrap Steel scrap (pound) . . (kilogram) . . + (pound) . . (kilogram) . . + (U.S. t o n ) . . (metric ton) . . 0.768 + 1.693 0.820 - 0.776 1.711 - 0.773 + 1.704 0.875 + 1.929 0.942 2.077 + 0.954 2.103 + 0.989 2.180 - 0.968 2.134 + 0.232 0.511 o 0.232 + 0.511 0.246 0.542 0.258 + 0.569 0.270 0.595 + 0.285 0.628 o 0.285 0.628 1.808 0.474 0.230 0.507 - 103.000 113.537 + 106.500 117.395 + 120.000 132.276 - 117.000 128.969 0.215 + Tin (pound) . . (kilogram) . . + 3.852 8.492 + 4.008 8.836 + 4.058 8.946 + Zinc (pound) . . (kilogram) . . + 0.579 + 0.651 1.435 + 0.684 1.508 o 0.684 1.508 Burlap (yard) . . (meter) . . + 0.282 0.308 - 0.281 0.307 0.277 0.303 + Cotton (pound) . . (kilogram) . . + 0.619 1.365 + 0.633 1.396 - 0.574 1.265 P r i n t doth (yard) . . (meter) . . - 0.530 0.580 - 0.500 0.547 - Wool tops (pound) . . (kilogram) . . + 7.100 - 6.575 14.495 - 6.500 14.330 Hides (pound) . . (kilogram) . . - 1.089 2.401 - 0.969 2.136 - Rosin (100 pounds) . . (100 kilograms) . . o 47.500 104.719 o 47.500 104.719 o 47.500 104.719 (pound) . . (kilogram) . . + + 0.710 1.565 - (pound) . . (kilogram) - + 0.172 0.379 + Rubber Tallow N O T E : To f a c i l i t a t e interpretation, the month-to-month preliminary: and "NA", not available. 1.276 15.653 0.593 1.307 0.158 0.348 - 115.000 126.765 + - 114.000 125.662 - 108.600 119.710 - 106.000 116.844 + 114.000 125.662 4.195 + 9.248 4.222 9.308 - 4.142 + 9.131 4.182 9.220 + + 0.699 1.541 + 0.708 + 1.561 0.724 1.596 + 0.754 1.662 + 0.803 1.770 0.285 0.312 - 0.281 0.307 0.276 0.302 + 0.278 0.304 + 0.280 0.306 + 0.281 0.307 - 0.549 1.210 - 0.513 + 1.131 0.520 1.146 + 0.533 + 1.175 0.547 1.206 + 0.554 1.221 0.498 + 0.545 0.508 0.556 - 0.500 0.547 - 0.480 0.525 + 0.492 0.538 + 0.500 0.547 + 0.518 0.566 o 6.500 14.330 o 6.500 14.330 + 6.950 15.322 + 7.480 16.490 0.941 + 2.075 1.026 2.262 - 0.980 2.161 - 0.905 1.995 - 0.874 1.927 - o 47.500 104.719 o 47.500 104.719 o 47.500 104.719 + 56.600 124.780 + 0.662 1.459 - 0.640 1.411 - 0.599 1.321 - 0.555 1.224 - 0.536 + 1.182 0.179 0.395 - 0.174 0.384 - 0.154 0.340 - 0.146 0.322 - 0.140 + 0.309 4.176 + 9.206 directions of change are shown along with the numbers: ( • ) rising, (o) unchanged, and ( ) : " falling. 7.088 15.626 7.000 15.432 0.865 + 1.907 62.250 137.236 4.235 9.336 0.920 2.028 + 65.000 143.299 0.539 + 1 . 188 0.556 1.226 - 0.148 0.326 0.152 0.335 The "r" i n d i c a t e s revised: "p" 1 The index is the average for January 3 through 27; component prices are averages for January 3, 10, 17, and 24. Data are not seasonally adjusted. These series are based on copyrighted data used by permission; they may not be reproduced without written permission from Commodity Research Bureau, Inc. Components are converted to metric units by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. 2 ItO JANUARY 1989 79 OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT HH GNP AND PERSONAL INCOME Year and quarter (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) a. Total c. Percent change at annual rate b. Difference a. Total (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) b. Difference (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) 213. Final sales in 1982 dollars 217. Per capita gross national product in 1982 dollars 50. Gross national product in 1982 dollars 200. Gross national product in current dollars c. Percent change at annual rate (Ann. rate, bit. dol.) (Ann. rate, dollars) 1985 First quarter Second quarter . . . . Third quarter Fourth quarter . . . . 4.9 2.4 4.1 3.0 15,004 15,061 15,173 15,244 3,561.7 3,582.3 3,639.8 3,654.7 6.4 1.0 1.4 15,447 15,380 15,381 15,397 3,673.6 3,688.0 3,718.3 3,745.2 42.0 46.3 42.3 57.7 4.6 5.0 4.5 6.1 15,537 15,693 15,826 16,022 3,746.9 3,795.2 3,852.2 3,855.9 33.1 29.1 24.2 3.4 3.0 2.5 16,126 16,213 16,283 p!6,301 3,890.1 3,949.9 3,969.9 p4, 000.0 3,925.6 3,979.0 4,047.0 4,107.9 73.8 53.4 68.0 60.9 7.9 5.6 7.0 6.2 3,577.5 3,599.2 3,635.8 3,662.4 42.3 21.7 36.6 26.6 4,180.4 4,207.6 4,268.4 4,304.6 72.5 27.2 60.8 36.2 7.2 2.6 5.9 3.4 3,719.3 3,711.6 3,721.3 3,734.7 56.9 -7.7 13.4 4,391.8 4,484.2 4,568.0 4,662.8 87.2 92.4 83.8 94.8 8.4 8.7 7.7 8.6 3,776.7 3,823.0 3,865.3 3,923.0 4,724.5 4,823.8 4,909.0 p4,989.9 61.7 99.3 85.2 5.4 8.7 7.3 p80.9 p6.8 3,956.1 3,985.2 4,009.4 p4,029.2 1986 First quarter Second quarter . . . . Third quarter Fourth quarter . . . . -0.8 9.7 1987 First quarter Second quarter . . . . Third quarter Fourth quarter . . . . 1988 First quarter Second quarter . . . . Third quarter Fourth quarter . . . . RNj GNP AND PERSONAL INCOME-Continued Year and quarter (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) 225. Constant (1982) dollars (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) p2.0 Q PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES 230. Total in current dollars Disposable personal income 224. Current dollars p!9.8 231. Total in 1982 dollars 232. Durable goods in current dollars 233. Durable goods in 1982 dollars 227. Per capita in 1982 dollars (Ann. rate, dollars) (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) 1985 First quarter Second quarter . . . . Third quarter Fourth quarter . . . . 2,764.6 2,850.7 2,840.0 2,899.5 2,509.4 2,563.5 2,535.4 2,562.8 10,524 10,727 10,581 10,667 2,554.9 2,599.3 2,661.4 2,700.4 2,319.1 2,337.4 2,375.9 2,386.9 361.4 367.1 387.2 373.2 344.8 350.3 369.1 356.4 2,965.1 3,016.3 3,032.4 3,064.7 2,614.5 2,655.9 2,643.9 2,649.4 10,858 11,006 10,928 10,923 2,739.0 2,772.1 2,842.8 2,876.0 2,415.1 2,440.9 2,478.6 2,486.2 381.4 393.0 429.9 421.8 363.3 374.2 405.1 397.3 3,143.9 3,154.1 3,224.9 3,315.8 2,679.6 2,652.8 2,683.9 2,728.9 11,024 10,889 10,989 11,145 2,921.7 2,992.2 3,058.2 3,076.3 2,490.2 2,516.6 2,545.2 2,531.7 403.5 420.5 441.4 422.0 378.3 391.3 406.5 387.6 3,375.6 3,421.5 3,507.5 p3, 587.1 2,762.3 2,762.2 2,800.4 p2,832.8 11,260 11,237 11,362 pll,463 3,128.1 3,194.6 3,261.2 p3, 320.1 2,559.8 2,579.0 2,603.8 p2,621.9 437.8 449.8 452.9 p459.3 401.1 410.6 410.4 p412.5 1986 First quarter Second quarter . . . . Third quarter Fourth quarter . . . . 1987 First quarter Second quarter . . . . Third quarter Fourth quarter . . . . 1988 First quarter Second quarter . . . . Third quarter Fourth quarter . . . . NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except for those, indicated by (u), that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are listed at the back of this issue. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available. Graphs of these series are shown on pages 40 and 41. JANUARY 1989 OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES A I NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT—Continued JM PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES-Continued Year and quarter 236. Nondurable goods in current dollars (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) 238. Nondurable goods in 1982 dollars (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) Q| GROSS PRIVATE DOMESTIC INVESTMENT 237. Services in current dollars 239. Services in 1982 dollars (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) 240. Total in current dollars (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) 241. Total in 1982 dollars 242. Fixed investment in current dollars (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) 243. Fixed investment in 1982 dollars (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) 1985 First quarter Second quarter . . . . Third quarter Fourth quarter . . . . 890.9 905.6 915.7 932.7 838.2 843.0 850.0 858.3 1,302.7 1,326.6 1,358.5 1,394.5 1,136.2 1,144.1 1,156.8 1,172.2 639.3 652.3 626.7 654.1 634.3 647.5 618.1 648.0 621.5 632.8 626.0 646.8 618.6 630.6 622.1 640.4 938.4 937.2 944.7 954.1 870.4 880.9 881.4 885.3 1,419.2 1,441.9 1,468.2 1,500.1 1,181.4 1,185.8 1,192.0 1,203.6 686.6 667.8 653.0 656.4 678.0 652.1 627.6 616.5 642.6 648.3 652.3 658.4 632.4 628.5 624.6 627.0 977.5 995.3 1,006.6 1,012.4 889.9 889.8 891.9 890.5 1,540.7 1,576.4 1,610.2 1,641.9 1,222.0 1,235.5 1,246.8 1,253.6 685.5 698.5 702.8 764.9 646.4 660.1 667.9 724.7 647.8 665.8 688.3 692.9 616.6 632.3 654.9 657.6 1,016.2 1,036.6 1,060.8 pi, 075. 2 892.7 893.6 904.5 p908.7 1,674.1 1,708.2 1,747.5 pi, 785. 6 1,265.9 1,274.8 1,288.9 pi, 300. 7 763.4 758.1 772.5 p767.9 728.9 715.1 726.1 p717.1 698.1 714.4 722.8 p734.3 662.9 679.7 686.6 p687.9 1986 First quarter Second quarter . . . . Third quarter Fourth quarter . . . . 1987 First quarter Second quarter . . . . Third quarter Fourth quarter . . . . 1988 First quarter Second quarter . . . . Third quarter Fourth quarter . . . . B Year and quarter GROSS PRIVATE DOMESTIC INVEST.-Con. MM 245. Change in business inventories in current dollars 30. Change in business inventories in 1982 dollars (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) 260. Total in current dollars (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) 261. Total in 1982 dollars (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) GOVERNMENT PURCHASES OF GOODS AND SERVICES 262. Federal Government in current dollars (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) 263. Federal Government in 1982 dollars (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) 266. State and local government in current dollars (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) 267. State and local government in 1982 dollars (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) 1985 First quarter Second quarter . . . . Third quarter Fourth quarter . . . . 17.8 19.5 15.8 16.9 -4.0 0.7 7.2 7.7 784.4 801.7 840.2 856.7 705.5 716.7 749.8 752.7 336.1 339.6 368.4 376.6 309.0 313.3 340.9 340.6 448.3 462.1 471.8 480.1 396.4 403.4 408.9 412.1 741.8 758.8 766.9 774.5 356.6 368.7 372.7 366.7 322.7 333.6 336.7 340.5 491.2 500.2 509.1 519.7 419.1 425.2 430.2 434.0 1986 First quarter Second quarter . . . . Third quarter Fourth quarter . . . . -2.0 3.0 -10.5 847.8 868.8 881.8 886.5 37.7 32.7 14.5 72.0 29.8 27.8 13.0 67.1 903.8 915.7 932.2 947.3 772.9 772.2 782.9 792.6 372.7 377.5 386.3 391.4 334.0 332.1 342.1 347.7 531.1 538.2 546.0 555.9 438.9 440.1 440.8 444.9 65.3 43.7 49.7 66.0 35.3 39.5 p33.7 p29.2 945.2 961.6 955.3 p992.2 776.4 783.8 773.5 p790.9 377.7 382.2 367.7 p393.2 327.8 331.6 320.1 p332.9 567.5 579.4 587.6 p599.0 448.7 452.2 453.4 p458.0 44.0 19.5 0.7 45.7 23.6 1987 First quarter Second quarter . . . . Third quarter Fourth quarter . . . . 1988 First quarter Second quarter . . . . Third quarter Fourth quarter . . . . See note on page 80. Graphs of these series are shown on pages 41, 42, and 43. JANUARY 1989 81 OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES A I NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT—Continued B Qj FOREIGN TRADE Year and quarter Net exports of goods and services (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) 256. Constant (1982) dollars 252. Current dollars 255. Constant (1982) dollars 250. Current dollars 253. Current dollars 280. Compensation of employees 257. Constant (1982) dollars (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) 220. National income in current dollars Imports of goods and services Exports of goods and services NATIONAL INCOME AND ITS COMPONENTS (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) 1985 First quarter Second quarter . . . . Third quarter Fourth quarter . . . . -53.1 -74.3 -81.2 -103.2 -81.4 -102.4 -107.9 -125.3 376.8 372.6 365.1 369.2 371.2 367.6 362.6 367.4 429.9 446.9 446.2 472.4 452.6 470.0 470.5 492.6 3,161.5 3,209.2 3,252.4 3,312.8 2,314.8 2,347.5 2,381.2 2,426.7 -93.0 -101.2 -109.1 -114.3 -115.7 -140.2 -151.8 -142.4 376.9 373.9 377.8 385.2 374.5 372.1 379.1 387.8 469.9 475.1 486.9 499.4 490.2 512.4 530.9 530.2 3,378.9 3,421.8 3,450.9 3,496.6 2,461.0 2,483.4 2,518.2 2,565.8 -119.1 -122.2 -125.2 -125.7 -132.8 -126.0 -130.7 -126.0 395.3 416.8 440.4 459.7 394.9 416.4 440.9 459.2 514.4 539.0 565.6 585.4 527.7 542.3 571.6 585.2 3,573.0 3,631.8 3,708.0 3,802.0 2,608.9 2,652.0 2,702.8 2,769.9 -112.1 -90.4 -80.0 p-90.3 -109.0 -92.6 -93.9 p-100.7 487.8 507.1 536.1 p543.8 486.2 496.9 514.0 p517.6 599.9 597.5 616.0 p634.1 595.1 589.5 607.9 p618.3 3,850.8 3,928.8 4,000.7 (NA) 2,816.4 2,874.0 2,933.2 p2,996.3 1986 First quarter Second quarter . . . . Third quarter Fourth quarter . . . . 1987 First quarter Second quarter . . . . Third quarter Fourth quarter . . . . 1988 First quarter Second quarter . . . . Third quarter Fourth quarter . . . . E 1 Year and quarter 282. Proprietors' income with IVA and CCAdj1 (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) B SAVING NATIONAL INCOME AND ITS COMPONENTS-Continued 284. Rental income of persons with CCAdj x (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) 286. Corporate profits before tax with IVA and CCAdj l 288. Net interest 290. Gross saving (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) 292. Personal saving 295. Business saving (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) 1985 First quarter Second quarter . . . . Third quarter Fourth quarter . . . . 253.2 257.3 248.8 264.2 9.0 11.2 8.9 7.8 266.0 275.8 296.1 291.4 318.4 317.4 317.4 322.7 550.9 553.3 509.4 520.3 518.4 532.4 554.1 554.5 128.7 167.8 93.3 111.7 273.1 294.6 285.0 294.2 10.6 12.5 13.1 13.4 303.2 297.1 301.2 293.9 331.1 334.1 333.3 329.3 571.2 537.5 517.7 522.5 565.6 557.7 562.3 554.3 136.9 154.1 98.8 96.8 310.1 308.9 306.8 326.0 17.4 17.8 18.1 20.5 298.3 305.2 322.0 316.1 338.3 348.1 358.3 369.5 539.2 542.4 556.8 603.4 549.0 555.5 569.6 570.0 130.8 69.5 72.6 144.0 323.9 328.8 321.6 p324.6 20.5 19.1 19.7 p!9.1 316.2 326.5 330.0 (NA) 373.9 380.6 396.2 p415.1 627.0 634.1 665.4 (NA) 576.4 583.3 587.2 (NA) 149.9 127.8 145.7 p!64.6 1986 First quarter Second quarter . . . . Third quarter Fourth quarter . . . . 1987 First quarter Second quarter . . . . Third quarter Fourth quarter . . . . 1988 First quarter Second quarter . . . . Third quarter Fourth quarter . . . . See note on page 80. Graphs of these series are shown on pages 44, 45, and 46. X IVA, inventory valuation adjustment; CCAdj, capital consumption adjustment. 82 JANUARY 1989 ItO OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT—Continued Q| SHARES OF GNP AND NATIONAL INCOME ^H SAVING— Continued Year and quarter 298. Government surplus or deficit 293. Personal saving rate Percent of gross national product 235. Personal consumption expenditures (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) (Percent) (Percent) 248. Nonresidential fixed investment 247. Change in business inventories 249. Residential fixed investment (Percent) (Percent) 251. Net exports of goods and services (Percent) (Percent) 1985 First quarter Second quarter . . . . Third quarter Fourth quarter . . . . -96.3 -146.9 -138.0 -145.9 4.7 5.9 3.3 3.9 65.1 65.3 65.8 65.7 11.1 11.2 10.8 11.0 4.7 4.7 4.7 4.8 0.5 0.5 0.0 0.2 -1.4 -1.9 -2.0 -2.5 -131.4 -174.3 -143.5 -128.5 4.6 5.1 3.3 3.2 65.5 65.9 66.6 66.8 10.5 10.3 10.1 10.1 4.9 5.1 5.2 5.2 1.1 0.5 0.0 0.0 -2.2 -2.4 -2.6 -2.7 -140.6 -82.6 -85.5 -110.7 4.2 2.2 2.3 4.3 66.5 66.7 66.9 66.0 10.1 10.0 5.1 5.1 5.0 4.9 0.9 0.7 0.3 1.5 -2.7 -2.7 -2.7 -2.7 -99.2 -77.1 -67.5 4.4 3.7 4.2 66.2 66.2 66.4 10.0 10.1 10.1 4.8 4.7 4.7 1.4 0.9 1.0 -2.4 -1.9 -1.6 p66.5 plO.O p4.7 pO.7 1986 First quarter Second quarter . . . . Third quarter Fourth quarter . . . . 1987 First quarter Second quarter . . . . Third quarter Fourth quarter . . . . 9.6 9.8 1988 First quarter Second quarter . . . Third quarter . . . . Fourth quarter . . . p4.6 (NA) p-1.8 JJ SHARES OF GNP AND NATIONAL INCOME-Continued Year and quarter Percent of GNP— Continued 265. Federal Government purchases of goods and services (Percent) Percent of national income 268. State and local government purchases of goods and services (Percent) 64. Compensation of employees 283. Proprietors' income with IVA and CCAdj x (Percent) (Percent) (Percent) 285. Rental income of persons with CCAdj x 287. Corporate profits before tax with IVA and CCAdj * 289. Net interest (Percent) (Percent) 1985 First quarter Second quarter . . . . Third quarter Fourth quarter . . . . 8.6 8.5 9.1 9.2 11.4 11.6 11.7 11.7 73.2 73.1 73.2 73.3 8.0 8.0 7.6 8.0 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 8.4 8.6 9.1 8.8 8.5 8.8 8.7 8.5 11.8 11.9 11.9 12.1 72.8 72.6 73.0 73.4 8.1 8.6 8.3 8.4 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 9.0 8.7 8.7 8.4 9.8 9.8 9.7 9.4 8.5 8.4 8.5 8.4 12.1 12.0 12.0 11.9 73.0 73.0 72.9 72.9 8.7 8.5 8.3 8.6 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 8.3 8.4 8.7 8.3 9.5 9.6 9.7 9.7 8.0 7.9 7.5 12.0 12.0 12.0 p!2.0 73.1 73.2 73.3 (NA) 8.4 8.4 8.0 0.5 0.5 0.5 8.2 8.3 8.2 9.7 9.7 9.9 10.1 9.9 9.8 9.7 1986 First quarter Second quarter . . . . Third quarter Fourth quarter . . . . 1987 First quarter Second quarter . . . . Third quarter Fourth quarter . . . . 1988 First quarter Second quarter . . . Third quarter Fourth quarter . . . P7.9 (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) See note on page 80. Graphs of these series are shown on pages 46 and 47. MVA, inventory valuation adjustment; CCAdj, capital consumption adjustment. JANUARY 1989 83 OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES PRICES, WAGES, AND PRODUCTIVITY Q| PRICE MOVEMENTS Implicit price deflator for gross national product Year and month 310. Index (1982 = 100) 310c. Change over 1-quarter spans i (Ann. rate, percent) 311. Index (1982 = 100) 311c. Change over 1-quarter spans1 (Ann. rate, percent) Consumer price index for all urban consumers, food Consumer price index for all urban consumers Fixed-weighted price index, gross domestic business product 320. Index @ (1982-84 = 100) 320c. Change over 1-month spans l (Percent) 320c. Change over 6-month spans1 (Ann. rate, percent) 322. Index (1982-84 = 100) 322c. Change over 1-month spans x (Percent) 322c. Change over 6-month spans l (Ann. rate, percent) 1986 January February March 112.4 April May June 113.4 July August September 114.7 October November December 115.3 1.9 0.7 112.7 2.1 3.6 113.3 4.7 ni.'i 2.1 109.6 109.3 108.8 108.6 108.9 109.5 0.3 0.6 -0.3 -0.4 -0.2 -0.3 -0.5 0.0 107.4 107.0 107.3 0.3 3.0 2.6 1.9 0.2 -0.4 0.2 0.5 0.4 1.7 107.6 108.0 108.2 0.3 0.4 0.2 3.4 5.9 6.1 2.8 109.5 109.7 110.2 0.0 0.2 0.3 2.6 2.8 2.2 109.2 110.1 110.5 0.9 0.8 0.4 5.8 5.8 5.8 2.3 110.3 110.4 110.5 0.2 0.3 0.2 3.7 4.1 4.4 110.7 111.1 111.3 0.2 0.4 0.2 5.0 3.7 3.3 3.7 111.2 111.6 112.1 0.7 0.4 0.4 5.0 5.1 5.3 111.9 112.1 112.3 0.5 0.2 0.2 3.6 4.0 4.7 4.0 112.7 113.1 113.5 0.4 0.4 0.3 4.4 4.5 4.1 112.7 113.3 113.9 0.4 0.5 0.5 3.4 3.2 4.0 3.5 113.8 114.4 115.0. 0.3 0.4 0.3 3.9 3.7 3.6 113.8 113.9 114.5 3.5 115.3 115.4 115.4 0.3 0.3 0.2 3.7 3.2 3.7 114.7 114.8 115.3 3.0 115.7 116.0 116.5 0.3 0.2 0.5 3.9 4.0 4.4 115.6 115.3 115.7 -0.3 116.5 117.0 117.7 114.8 1987 January February March 116.3 April May June 117.3 July August September 118'.2 October November December 118*. 9 3.5 115.8 3.5 117*.0 3.1 118.6 2.4 11916 C 0.1 0.5 3.6 2.7 2.5 0.2 0.1 0.4 3.2 2.5 2.1 0.3 0.3 3.2 3.9 4.2 0.7 0.4 0.6 5.8 7.6 8.5 118.9 119.6 120.5 1.0 0.6 0.8 7.3 6.6 6.0 120.7 120.8 121.2 0.2 0.1 0.3 -0.1 1988 January February March 1.7 119*.9 119.4 April May June 12i!6 July August September 122*4 October November December pl23!8 5.5 5.0 117.1 117.5 118.0 0.4 0.3 0.3 4.5 5.1 4.7 5.6 118.5 119.0 119.8 0.4 0.4 0.3 4.7 4.5 4.5 p3.9 120.2 120.3 120.5 0.4 0.3 0.3 121.3 4.7 123.0 p4.7 p!24.2 See note on page 80. Graphs of these series are shown on pages 48 and 49. '•Changes are centered within the spans: 1-month changes are placed on the 2d month, 6-month changes are placed on the 4th month, and 1-quarter changes are placed on the 1st month of the 2d quarter. JANUARY 1989 OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES PRICES, WAGES, AND PRODUCTIVITY—Continued EH 330. Index © (1982 = 100) 330c. Change over 6-month spans 1 © 330c. Change over 1-month spans1© 335. Index © (Ann. rate, percent) (Percent) Producer price index, crude materials for further processing Producer price index, industrial commodities Producer price index, all commodities Year and month PRICE MOVEMENTS-Continued (1982 = 100) 335c. Change over 1-month spans1© 335c. Change over 6-month spans1© (Ann. rate, percent) (Percent) 331. Index 331c. Change over 1-month spans1 (1982 = 100) 331c. Change over 6-month spans1 (Ann. rate, percent) (Percent) 1986 January February March 103.2 101.7 100.3 -0.4 -1.5 -1.4 -6.3 -6.5 -7.0 103.7 102.1 100.5 -0.4 -1.5 -1.6 -7.6 -7.9 -8.1 94.2 90.4 88.3 -1.2 -4.0 -2.3 -17.8 -17.4 -18.2 April May June 99.6 100.0 99.9 -0.7 0.4 -0.1 -7.2 -4.7 -1.8 99.8 99.8 99.8 -0.7 0.0 0.0 -9.2 -6.7 -3.4 85.4 86.8 86.2 -3.3 1.6 -0.7 -15.9 -8.2 -4.0 July August September 99.4 99.3 99.4 -0.5 -0.1 0.1 0.2 -0.4 -0.4 98.8 98.6 98.8 -1.0 -0.2 0.2 -1.4 -1.2 -1.2 86.4 86.6 86.5 0.2 0.2 -0.1 5.0 1.4 0.9 October November December 99.7 99.8 99.7 0.3 0.1 -0.1 2.2 3.5 3.7 99.1 99.2 99.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 3.3 4.5 4.7 87.5 87.4 86.6 1.2 -0.1 -0.9 6.3 7.8 9.7 January February March 100.5 101.0 101.2 0.8 0.5 0.2 4.5 5.7 6.7 100.4 100.8 101.1 1.2 0.4 0.3 5.1 5.5 6.6 89.1 89.9 90.6 2.9 0.9 0.8 11.3 16.4 19.3 April May June 101.9 102.6 103.0 0.7 0.7 0.4 6.1 5.6 5.0 101.6 101.9 102.4 0.5 0.3 0.5 5.5 5.8 4.8 92.3 94.3 94.6 1.9 2.2 0.3 15.1 15.7 12.3 July August September 103.5 103.8 103.7 0.5 0.3 -0.1 4.4 3.1 2.3 103.1 103.7 103.5 0.7 0.6 -0.2 4.8 4.6 3.5 95.6 96.7 96.0 1.1 1.2 -0.7 8.4 1.3 0.2 October November December 104.1 104.2 104.2 0.4 0.1 0.0 2.1 1.9 2.3 104.0 104.2 104.2 0.5 0.2 0.0 2.5 1.7 2.3 96.1 94.9 94.7 0.1 -1.2 -0.2 -3.5 -4.3 -3.7 January February March 104.6 104.8 104.9 0.4 0.2 0.1 3.3 4.5 5.8 104.4 104.6 104.7 0.2 0.2 0.1 3.1 3.7 4.3 93.9 94.6 94.2 -0.8 0.7 -0.4 -1.9 3.4 5.8 April May June 105.8 106.5 107.2 0.9 0.7 0.7 6.4 6.2 6.2 105.6 106.1 106.4 0.9 0.5 0.3 4.7 r4.6 4.2 95.2 96.5 97.4 1.1 1.4 0.9 6.3 r6.0 6.5 July August September 107.9 108.0 108.1 0.7 0.1 0.1 4.6 3.4 3.4 106.8 r!07.0 106.9 0.4 rO.2 r-0.1 2.9 2.5 3.2 96.8 r97.4 97.2 -0.6 rO.6 r-0.2 4.0 -4.9 0.0 October November December 108.2 108.3 109.0 0.1 0.1 0.6 107.1 107.4 108.1 0.2 0.3 0.7 97.1 94.1 97.4 -0.1 -3.1 3.5 1987 1988 See note on page 80. Graphs of these series are shown on page 48. Changes are centered within the spans: 1 JANUARY 1989 1-month changes are placed on the 2d month, and 6-month changes are placed on the 4th month. 85 OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES PRICES, WAGES, AND PRODUCTIVITY—Continued Q| PRICE MOVEMENTS-Continued Producer price index, intermediate materials, supplies, and components Year and month 332. Index 332c. Change over 6-month spans 1 332c. Change over 1-month spans x (1982 = 100) Producer price index, capital equipment (Ann. rate, percent) (Percent) 333 Index 333c. Change over 1-month spans 1 (1982 = 100) (Percent) Producer price index, finished consumer goods 333c. Change over 6-month spans1 (Ann. rate, percent) 334. Index (1982 = 100) 334c. Change over 1-month spans 1 334c. Change over 6-month spans 1 (Percent) (Ann. rate, percent) 1986 102.3 101.1 99.9 -0.6 -1.2 -1.2 -6.5 -7.3 -8.0 108.6 108.7 108.9 0.1 0.1 0.2 1.9 1.7 2.0 104.5 102.6 101.2 -0.8 -1.8 -1.4 -6.8 -6.9 -7.8 April May June 99.0 98.8 98.7 -0.9 -0.2 -0.1 -8.2 -6.0 -2.6 109.2 109.3 109.6 0.3 0.1 0.3 2.0 1.8 2.0 100.4 101.0 101.1 -0.8 0.6 0.1 -8.1 -3.7 -0.2 July August September 98.0 98.0 98.6 -0.7 0.0 0.6 -1.6 -1.0 -0.6 109.7 109.7 110.0 0.1 0.0 0.3 2.4 2.8 2.2 100.2 100.7 101.1 -0.9 0.5 0.4 2.0 0.8 0.6 October November December 98.2 98.3 98.4 -0.4 0.1 0.1 2.1 3.3 2.4 110.5 110.8 110.8 0.5 0.3 0.0 2.8 2.4 2.0 101.4 101.4 101.4 0.3 0.0 0.0 3.2 2.8 3.0 99.0 99.6 99.8 0.6 0.6 0.2 4.1 5.2 6.0 111.2 111.0 111.1 0.4 -0.2 0.1 1.6 1.3 1.1 101.8 102.1 102.6 0.4 0.3 0.5 3.8 4.4 4.6 April May June 100.2 100.8 101.3 0.4 0.6 0.5 5.9 5.7 5.9 111.4 111.5 111.4 0.3 0.1 -0.1 0.7 1.6 2.5 103.3 103.6 103.7 0.7 0.3 0.1 4.6 4.4 4.1 July August September 101.9 102.4 102.7 0.6 0.5 0.3 6.1 5.6 5.0 111.6 111.9 112.5 0.2 0.3 0.5 1.1 1.1 1.6 104.1 104.3 104.7 0.4 0.2 0.4 2.3 1.7 0.6 October November December 103.2 103.6 103.8 0.5 0.4 0.2 4.6 3.9 4.3 112.0 112.1 112.3 -0.4 0.1 0.2 2.2 2.0 1.2 104.5 104.5 104.0 -0.2 0.0 -0.5 0.6 -0.6 0.0 January February March 104.2 104.4 104.9 0.4 0.2 0.5 4.7 5.3 6.7 112.8 113.0 113.2 0.4 0.2 0.2 2.5 2.9 2.9 104.4 104.0 104.7 0.4 -0.4 0.7 1.3 2.1 3.5 April May June 105.6 106.3 107.2 0.7 0.7 0.8 7.4 7.6 7.4 113.4 113.7 113.9 0.2 0.3 0.2 2.7 3.2 4.5 105.2 105.6 105.8 0.5 0.4 0.2 4.5 r6.1 5.6 July August September 108.0 108.3 108.7 0.7 0.3 0.4 6.0 5.5 4.7 114.3 114.8 115.7 0.4 0.4 0.8 3.6 3.5 3.9 106.7 r!07.1 107.6 0.9 rO.4 rO.5 4.4 4.4 4.6 October November December 108.7 109.2 109.7 0.0 0.5 0.5 115.4 115.7 116.1 -0.3 0.3 0.3 107.5 107.9 108.2 -0.1 0.4 0.3 January February March 1987 January February March 1988 See note on page 80. Graphs of these series are shown on page 48. '•Changes are centered within the spans: 1-month changes are placed on the 2d month, and 6-month changes are placed on the 4th month. JANUARY 1989 ltd! OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES PRICES, WAGES, AND PRODUCTIVITY—Continued Qj WAGES AND PRODUCTIVITY Average hourly compensation, all employees, nonfarm business sector Average hourly earnings of production or nonsupervisory workers on private nonagricultural payrolls x Year and Current-dollar earnings 340. Index (1977-100) 340c. Change over 1-month spans2 (Percent) Current-dollar compensation Real earnings 340c. Change over 6-month spans 2 (Ann. rate, percent) 341. Index (1977 = 100) 341c. Change over 1-month spans2 341c. Change over 6-month spans 2 (Ann. rate, percent) (Percent) 345. Index (1977 = 100) 345c. Change over 1-quarter spans 2 345c. Change over 4-quarter spans2 (Ann. rate, percent) (Ann. rate, percent) 1986 January February March 167.5 168.2 168.5 April May June 0.4 0.2 2.6 2.4 1.7 93.6 94.3 95.0 168.5 168.8 169.3 0.0 0.2 0.2 2.1 1.6 1.6 95.5 95.3 95.2 July August September 169.2 169.6 169.8 0.0 0.2 0.2 2.2 2.8 2.3 95.2 95.3 95.1 October November December 170.3 171.2 171.2 0.3 0.5 0.0 2.5 2.8 2.7 95.3 95.5 95.3 January February March 171.3 171.9 172.1 0.1 0.4 0.1 2.6 2.0 2.1 94.7 94.7 94.4 April May June 172.5 172.9 172.9 0.3 0.2 0.1 2.3 2.6 2.9 July August September 173.2 174.1 174.6 0.2 0.5 0.3 October November December 174.9 175.6 175.7 January February March 176.6 176.7 177.0 April May June 178.0 178.7 178.6 July August September 179.3 179.5 180.3 0.4 0.1 0.5 October November December 181.5 r!81.4 p!81.7 rO.6 93.1 r-0.1 r92.9 p92.7 -0.2 -0.6 0.8 0.7 0.5 -0.1 -0.2 0.0 0.1 4.4 2.9 2.9 2.2 179!6 3.4 2.0 0.3 180.4 3.2 -0.4 182.3 -1.1 -1.3 -1.6 184.6 185.6 -0.3 -2.4 -3.1 -3.3 94.1 94.0 93.7 -0,3 -0.1 -0.3 -2.1 -2.0 -1.5 187.1 2.8 3.3 3.3 93.7 93.8 93.7 -0.1 -1.3 -0.5 -0.1 189.2 0.2 0.4 0.1 4.0 3.0 2.8 93.5 93.8 93.7 0.5 0.1 0.2 3.6 3.5 3.3 93.8 93.7 93.5 0.6 0.4 3.1 3.2 3.8 93.6 93.6 93.2 4.0 93.2 92.9 93.0 0.1 0.2 -0.2 i!z 4.3 0.3 0.2 -0.2 4^2 3^7 5.1 3*.7 1987 -0.7 0.0 0.1 -0.1 -0.2 0.2 0.3 -0.1 -0.4 -0.1 2.1 3.8 3.4 4.0 4.4 4.4 6.2 4.7 192.1 1988 -0.1 pO.2 r3.0 p3.5 0.1 -0.1 -0.2 0.1 0.0 -0.4 0.0 -0.4 0.2 3.5 0.1 -0.5 -1.0 -1.2 -1.8 -1.1 -1.0 -1.3 4.5 195.9 (NA) 5.4 198*.4 p-1.0 0.1 -0.2 4.9 193!7 (NA) (NA) p-0.2 See note on page 80. Graphs of these series are shown on pages 49 and 50. 1 Adjusted for overtime (in manufacturing only) and interindustry employment shifts. 2 lonth, 1-quarChanges are centered within the spans: 1-month changes are placed on the 2d month, 6-month changes are placed on the 4th moi ter changes are placed on the 1st month of the 2d quarter, and 4-quarter changes are placed on the middle month of the 3d quart:er. JANUARY 1989 87 OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES PRICES, WAGES, AND PRODUCTIVITY—Continued HH WAGES AND PRODUCTIVITY-Continued Negotiated wage and benefit decisions Average hourly compensation, all employees, nonfarm business sector— Continued Year and 348. Average first-year changes © Real compensation 346. Index (1977 = 100) 346c. Change over 1-quarter spans L 346c. Change over 4-quarter spans1 (Ann. rate, percent) (Ann. rate, percent) (Ann. rate, percent) Output per hour, all persons, business sector 349. Average changes over life of contract © (Ann. rate, percent) 370. Index (1977 = 100) 358. Index of output per hour, all persons, nonfarm business sector 370c. Change over 1-quarter spans x 370c. Change over 4-quarter spans1 (Ann. rate, percent) (Ann. rate, percent) (1977 = 100) 1.6 108.6 1.2 ios!i -6!<5 ios!6 0.2 107.8 1.5 107.8 1.9 m.'e 2!7 109.6 1.1 109^9 6" 5 110.8 1986 2.7 January February March 99.2 0.6 100.3 July August September 100.8 October November December 101.4 1.6 no'.4 2.9 0.7 1.9 -61 i -0.4 -1.4 1.2 110.0 1.4 2.4 7.7 110.5 0.7 4.6 April May June 1.2 2.*5 2.7 -0.8 2.4 109.8 ... 1987 January February March 100.' 6 April May June 106! 2 July August September io6!i October November December 101.0 1.1 -3.1 2.1 4.1 -1.4 3.9 -6'.4 2.5 0.6 2. 1 CL4 3.4 2.5 0.3 109.9 -0.4 noie ni!? 2.4 0.7 2.7 3.9 0.6 111.8 1988 January February March ... ioi.6 April May June 106! 9 July August September 101. i October November December (NA) pi. 8 0.1 112.8 rp3.1 -0.2 -3.4 p2.4 (NA) 0.6 3.5 pi. 8 6'.7 111.8 p3.4 (NA) 1.5 rp3.2 nb'.s 112.2 (NA) p3.8 110.1 (NA) p2.2 (NA) (NA) See note on page 80. Graphs of these series are shown on pages 49 and 50. 1 Changes are centered within the spans: 1-quarter changes are placed on the 1st month of the 2d quarter, and 4-quarter changes are placed on the middle month of the 3d quarter. JANUARY 1989 OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES LABOR FORCE, EMPLOYMENT, AND UNEMPLOYMENT Q| CIVILIAN LABOR FORCE AND MAJOR COMPONENTS 447. Number unemployed, full-time workers Civilian labor force Year and month 442. Civilian employment 441. Total (Thous.) Number unemployed (Thous.) 37. Persons unemployed 444. Males 20 years and over (Thous.) (Thous.) 445. Females 20 years and over 448. Number employed part time for economic reasons 446. Both sexes 16-19 years of age (Thous.) (Thous.) (Thous.) Civilian labor force participation rates 451. Males 20 years and over (Percent) (Thous.) l 452. Females 20 years and over 453. Both sexes 16-19 years of age (Percent) (Percent) 1 Revised 1 78.3 78.1 r78.2 54.9 55.0 55.1 53.4 54.5 55.0 5,577 5,629 5,384 78.0 78.0 78.2 55.2 55.4 55.7 55.6 55.4 55.4 6,722 6,558 6,815 5,120 5,311 5,383 78.1 77.9 78.1 55.8 55.8 55.8 54.6 54.7 54.7 1,408 1,446 1,359 6,725 6,646 6,454 5,494 5,302 5,311 r78.0 78.2 78.3 55.8 55.7 55.6 54.9 54.4 53.4 2,864 2,822 2,870 1,391 1,432 1,402 6,430 6,382 6,231 5,187 5,326 5,168 78.2 r78.1 78.1 55.7 55.8 55.9 54.2 54.8 54.4 3,482 3,443 3,440 2,757 2,708 2,640 1,366 1,427 1,280 6,110 6,039 6,043 5,122 5,098 4,979 78.1 78.2 78.0 56.0 56.3 56.2 54.5 55.6 53.6 3,340 3,259 3,165 2,674 2,662 2,666 1,257 1,305 1,281 5,895 5,814 5,664 5,103 5,046 5,050 78.0 77.9 77.9 56.3 56.4 56.3 53.8 56.0 54.1 6,961 3,194 3,114 3,061 2,620 2,602 2,605 1,390 1,351 1,295 5,756 5,655 5,562 5,142 5,287 4,979 78.0 78.0 77.8 56.4 56.4 56.5 55.1 54.8 55.4 114,055 114,273 114,129 6,980 6,892 6,807 3,106 3,053 3,064 2,568 2,596 2,450 1,306 1,243 1,293 5,550 5,526 5,473 5,113 5,101 5,087 77.9 r78.1 77.9 56.6 56.7 56.6 55.9 55.0 54.1 121,328 121,203 121,524 114,660 114,403 115,001 6,668 6,800 6,523 2,941 3,065 2,889 2,471 2,492 2,485 1,256 1,243 1,149 5,338 5,413 5,163 4,953 4,676 5,073 r78.1 r78.0 77.8 56.6 56.5 56.6 54.5 54.5 56.2 July August September 121,658 122,000 121,984 115,034 115,203 115,370 6,624 6,797 2,832 3,077 2,905 2,565 2,467 2,456 1,227 1,253 1,253 5,215 5,491 5,293 5,102 4,972 4,862 r77.8 78.0 77.9 56.7 56.8 56.8 55.9 56.1 56.0 October November December 122,091 122,510 122,563 115,573 115,947 116,009 6,518 2,911 2,996 2,953 2,413 2,445 2,422 1,194 1,122 1,179 5,176 5,273 5,317 4,727 4,819 5,033 77.8 r77.8 77.8 57.0 57.4 57.3 55.2 55.1 55.2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 Revised January February March 116,687 116,875 117,194 108,879 108,477 108,847 7,808 8,398 8,347 3,497 3,760 3,765 2,909 3,150 3,140 1,402 1,488 1,442 6,423 6,818 6,854 5,289 5,110 5,303 April May June 117,341 117,613 118,132 108,943 109,170 109,657 8,398 8,443 8,475 3,738 3,824 3,802 3,118 3,121 3,137 1,542 1,498 1,536 6,823 6,913 6,820 July August September 118,124 118,110 118,381 109,826 110,016 110,058 8,298 8,094 8,323 3,832 3,664 3,872 3,022 3,006 2,987 1,444 1,424 1,464 October November December 118,454 118,623 118,567 110,202 110,425 110,656 8,252 8,198 7,911 3,833 3,793 3,728 3,011 2,959 2,824 January February March 118,873 119,119 119,263 110,969 111,271 111,459 7,904 7,848 7,804 3,649 3,594 3,532 April May June 119,394 120,102 119,647 111,789 112,524 112,287 7,605 7,578 7,360 July August September 119,884 120,245 120,008 112,613 113,019 112,896 7,271 October November December 120,429 120,527 120,701 113,225 113,460 113,740 7,204 7,067 January February March 121,035 121,165 120,936 April May June 1986 Revised Revised Revised Revised Revised Revised Revised ( ) Revised 1987 7,226 7,112 1988 6,614 6,563 6,554 See note on page 80. Graphs of these series are shown on page 51. See "New Features and Changes for This Issue," page iii. JANUARY 1989 OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES GOVERNMENT ACTIVITIES Q| DEFENSE INDICATORS Q| RECEIPTS AND EXPENDITURES State and local government 1 Federal Government 1 Year and month 500. Surplus or deficit (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) Advance measures of defense activity 501. Receipts 502. Expenditures 510. Surplus or deficit 511. Receipts 512. Expenditures (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) 517. Defense Department gross obligations incurred (Mil. dol.) 525. Defense Department prime contract awards 543. Defense Department gross unpaid obligations outstanding (Mil. dol.) (Mil. dol.) 548. Manufacturers' new orders, defense products (Mil. dol.) 1986 January February March -198.6 806! 7 1,005^3 67.'2 613.1 545.9 28,411 30,247 30,969 12,843 9,715 13,822 185,822 188,008 190,756 9,975 9,449 11,858 April May June -234!i 816.3 1,050.7 60 !i 616!6 556!5 29,758 30,267 33,056 13,136 11,052 12,949 188,903 189,004 193,207 8,514 9,012 7,845 July August September -2oe!i 833^6 1,039.7 62.7 629.6 566!9 31,199 29,968 30,678 13,810 11,432 12,315 196,185 198,635 199,295 10,091 7,709 9,968 October November December -183.3 856!8 1,040.1 54.8 632.9 578.1 28,383 30,341 26,583 9,450 11,866 11,581 198,408 198,337 197,769 7,508 10,426 7,763 January February March -1B8.3 87l".3 1,059.6 47.7 637^5 589!9 25,911 34,669 28,986 10,617 12,546 12,167 196,585 199,440 199,308 6,129 7,650 9,769 April May June -144.0 92CLO i.osiio 6JL4 659.3 597.9 33,794 32,801 30,475 12,138 12,103 12,748 200,411 202,504 204,177 11,265 9,907 10,128 July August September -138.3 930.1 1,068^4 52^9 65911 606^2 31,867 32,619 34,065 13,667 12,881 13,609 207,148 209,556 215,074 9,882 9,179 9,102 October November December -16CL4 944! 4 1,104.9 49.7 666^9 61?!2 29,233 30,794 24,532 10,613 9,383 11,912 212,355 212,086 205,974 9,864 9,824 7,036 January February March -155.1 951.0 i.ioeii 55'.8 685^5 629!7 31,157 33,243 31,595 7,871 11,080 11,901 208,366 210,637 212,335 9,223 8,480 8,065 April May June -133.3 983.0 1,116.3 56.2 698 '.4 642 '.I 33,172 32,294 36,167 16,222 14,301 14,580 210,520 214,223 219,469 9,871 8,215 13,829 July August September -123.5 975.5 1,099.0 56.0 708.0 652.0 29,691 29,004 p27,652 18,794 9,185 plO,964 219,349 219,239 p220,134 6,995 8,037 7,472 (NA) (NA) 1987 1988 October November December (NA) (NA) (NA) pi, 143.0 p665!6 (NA) (NA) rlO,695 r8,392 plO,160 See note on page 80. Graphs of these series are shown on pages 52 and 53. 1 Based on national income and product accounts. 90 JANUARY 1989 ItO OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES GOVERNMENT ACTIVITIES—Continued Q| DEFENSE INDICATORS-Continued National defense purchases Intermediate and tinal measures of defense activity Year and month 557. Index of industrial production, defense and space equipment (1977-100) 559. Manufacturers' inventories, defense products 561. Manufacturers' unfilled orders, defense products (Mil. dol.) (Mil. dol.) 580. Defense Department net outlays, military (Mil. dol.) 588. Manufacturers' shipments, defense products (Mil. dol.) 570. Employment, defense products industries (Thous.) Defense Department personnel 577. Military on active duty (u) (Thous.) 578. Civilian, direct hire employment (Thous.) 564. Federal purchases of goods and services, national defense (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) 565. National defense purchases as a percent of GNP (Percent) 1986 January February March 178.9 178.0 178.6 31,682 31,148 31,963 159,414 160,355 164,278 20,152 21,586 23,342 8,272 8,508 7,935 1,570 1,572 1,572 2,157 2,160 2,160 1,103 1,087 1,084 266^8 6*.i April May June 179.8 180.2 180.7 32,072 32,089 32,156 164,153 164,405 163,323 22,101 22,921 21,954 8,639 8,760 8,927 1,581 1,588 1,564 2,150 2,150 2,143 1,081 1,072 1,060 277^2 eie July August September 182.4 183.7 184.6 31,800 31,648 31,684 164,192 163,058 164,078 22,538 21,714 23,886 9,222 8,843 8,948 1,592 1,589 1,590 2,150 2,161 2,169 1,059 1,052 1,072 288.0 6.7 October November December 185.6 185.5 186.2 31,578 31,369 30,762 162,570 163,442 161,459 22,324 21,168 22,512 9,016 9,554 9,746 1,592 1,591 1,590 2,177 2,181 2,178 1,069 1,063 1,059 278!l 6.5 January February March 187.3 188.9 188.6 31,122 31,233 31,169 158,833 157,779 158,084 22,243 24,096 23,259 8,755 8,704 9,464 1,593 1,591 1,588 2,179 2,172 2,168 1,061 1,067 1,070 287^3 e'.'s April May June 189.2 189.3 188.6 31,597 31,624 31,709 160,358 160,898 161,816 23,593 22,760 24,046 8,991 9,367 9,210 1,584 1,587 1,585 2,158 2,153 2,151 1,072 1,068 1,070 294!8 e.'e July August September 188.7 189.1 189.8 32,174 32,553 32,668 162,605 162,741 162,316 22,858 24,340 21,513 9,093 9,043 9,527 1,588 1,589 1,590 2,158 2,167 2,174 1,074 1,076 1,090 299.8 6.6 October November December . . 190.3 188.7 188.9 33,171 33,936 33,504 163,247 164,130 161,860 25,816 21,276 26,329 8,933 8,941 9,306 1,593 1,592 1,592 2,172 2,174 2 S 167 1,090 1,087 1,083 299.2 e!i January February March 190.6 191.0 189.9 33,656 33,859 33,945 162,206 162,089 160,841 20,786 23,441 23,752 8,877 8,597 9,313 1,599 1,596 1,587 2,166 2,162 2,142 1,077 1,071 1,067 298.4 6.*3 April May June 187.9 185.5 184.6 34,069 34,695 35,328 162,171 162,009 167,117 26,548 20,130 23,765 8,541 8,377 8,721 1,588 1,585 1,584 2,108 2,100 2,104 1,059 1,053 1,041 298.*8 b'.2 July August September 184.9 184.9 rl84.5 34,799 34,071 34,839 165,449 164,451 163,092 24,243 23,321 20,636 8,663 9,035 8,830 1,580 1,577 1,571 2,111 2,122 2,138 1,031 1,036 1,052 294.3 e!6 October November December r!84.0 r!83.3 p!83.2 r35,410 p35,239 r!65,356 r!65,093 p!64,931 8,431 r8,655 plO,322 1,566 pi, 565 2,130 2,130 p2,121 1,046 pi, 047 1987 1988 (NA) (NA) (NA) p298.4 p6.0 (NA) See note on page 80. Graphs of these series are shown on pages 54 and 55. JANUARY 1989 91 OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES U.S. INTERNATIONAL TRANSACTIONS Qj MERCHANDISE TRADE 602. Exports, excluding military aid shipments 604. Exports of domestic agricultural products 606. Exports of nonelectrical machinery 612. General imports Year and month (Mil. dol.) (Mil. dol.) (Mil. dol.) (Mil. dol.) 614. Imports of petroleum and petroleum products (Mil. dol.) 616. Imports of automobiles and parts (Mil. dol.) 1986 January February March 18,557 18,520 17,999 2,320 2,283 2,135 3,854 4,294 3,740 30,600 28,866 29,124 4,978 4,254 3,578 5,044 5,378 5,018 April May June 18,762 19,023 20,038 2,043 1,960 1,819 3,981 3,644 3,582 30,287 29,390 29,960 2,084 2,718 2,731 5,044 5,054 5,535 July August September 19,731 17,970 18,282 2,062 2,231 2,111 3,585 4,091 3,812 30,969 30,122 31,738 2,483 2,225 2,435 6,242 6,280 4,909 October November December 19,728 19,295 19,255 2,447 2,204 2,352 3,932 4,138 4,227 30,953 32,666 30,762 2,155 2,788 2,299 5,790 7,156 5,483 January February March 18,399 19,327 20,171 1,926 2,047 2,157 3,452 4,404 4,098 31,666 31,825 32,271 2,269 3,598 3,513 4,882 6,322 5,329 April May June 20,402 20,260 21,107 2,234 2,410 2,445 4,122 4,176 4,338 31,978 32,514 34,418 2,842 3,685 3,375 5,516 6,093 5,823 July August September 22,430 20,883 21,810 2,956 2,520 2,625 4,260 4,420 4,717 34,625 34,492 34,582 4,125 4,574 3,439 5,800 6,008 5,307 October November December 22,074 23,094 24,152 2,593 2,409 2,472 4,407 5,371 5,371 35,966 35,316 36,586 3,780 3,292 3,158 6,776 6,342 6,560 January February March 24,488 24,518 26,876 2,634 2,936 3,030 5,040 5,177 5,442 34,258 37,729 36,644 3,541 3,536 3,225 5,441 5,659 5,677 April May June 26,026 27,478 26,283 3,030 3,327 3,220 5,288 5,374 5,353 34,825 35,732 37,948 3,226 3,802 3,060 6,220 5,507 5,351 July August September 26,515 27,493 27,988 3,266 3,349 3,576 5,457 5,778 5,876 34,533 38,140 37,178 3,122 3,360 2,927 5,378 5,888 6,354 October November December r27,816 27,177 (NA) 3,092 2,808 (NA) 5,698 5,709 (NA) r36,600 38,134 (NA) 2,718 2,645 (NA) 6,589 6,291 (NA) 1987 1988 See note on page 80. Graphs of these series are shown on page 56. 92 JANUARY 1989 OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES U.S. INTERNATIONAL TRANSACTIONS—Continued Q| GOODS AND SERVICES MOVEMENTS (EXCLUDING TRANSFERS UNDER MILITARY GRANTS) Merchandise, adjusted1 Goods and services Year 667. Balance 622. Balance 669. Imports 668. Exports 651. U.S. investment abroad 620. Imports 618. Exports and Income on investment month (Mil. dol.) (Mil. dol.) (Mil. dol.) (Mil. dol.) (Mil. dol.) (Mil. dol.) (Mil. dol.) 652. Foreign investment in the United States (Mil. dol.) 1986 January February March -29,485 93,067 122,552 -35,433 54,113 89,546 24,352 17,357 -29,629 94,088 123,717 -33,861 56,946 90,807 22,248 17,533 July August September -31,288 93,493 124,781 -36,721 56,268 92,989 21,845 15,729 October November December -33,118 94,408 127,526 -38,532 56,642 95,174 21,667 16,350 -34,657 98,907 133,564 -39,871 56,791 96,662 24,791 19,715 -37,727 100,353 138,080 -39,552 59,864 99,416 22,429 20,737 July August September -38,987 106, 3is 145,305 -39,665 64,902 104,567 23,289 22,222 October November December -29,150 119,247 148,397 -41,192 68,013 109,205 33,248 20,709 -33,817 121,122 154,939 -35,184 75,300 110,484 26,554 25,395 -30,988 123,000 153,988 -30,151 79,606 109,757 23,426 25,366 p-27,776 p!29,793 p!57,569 p-28,533 p82,306 pllO,839 p26,830 p27J67 April May June 1987 January February March April May June 1988 January February March April May June July August September October November December (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) See note on page 80. Graphs of these series are shown on page 57. 1 Balance of payments basis: Excludes transfers under military grants and Department of Defense sales contracts (exports) and Department of Defense purchases (imports). JANUARY 1989 93 OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS Q INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION Year and month 47. United States, index of industrial production (1977 = 100) 721. OECD 1 European countries, index of industrial production (1977 = 100) 728. Japan, index of industrial production (1977 = 100) 726. France, index of industrial production 725. West Germany, index of industrial production (1977 = 100) 722. United Kingdom, index of industrial production (1977 = 100) 727. Italy, index of industrial production (1977 = 100) (1977 = 100) 723. Canada, index of industrial production (1977 = 100) 1986 January February March 126.4 125.5 123.9 112 113 112 144.6 144.8 144.8 113 113 113 107 105 105 108 110 109 108.4 110.9 113.8 126.2 126.3 123.3 April May June 124.7 124.3 124.1 115 111 114 144.4 144.2 144.5 117 112 116 109 104 108 111 109 109 114.9 108.7 113.9 128.1 124.8 123.0 July August September 124.8 124.9 124.5 115 114 114 144.2 141.9 145.8 117 114 114 109 109 109 111 111 111 111.1 110.0 109.8 124.3 123.9 124.3 October November December 125.3 125.7 126.8 114 114 113 143.8 141.9 142.0 114 114 112 109 107 107 111 111 110 111.0 112.2 111.1 125.1 124.9 126.8 January February March 126.2 127.1 127.4 112 115 115 141.3 140.8 142.8 111 114 114 105 109 109 110 112 112 111.8 115.2 117.6 126.2 127.6 128.8 April May June 127.4 128.2 129.1 115 116 116 141.7 139.5 144.7 116 116 114 108 110 111 112 112 112 115.5 119.7 116.2 128.9 129.6 130.3 July August September 130.6 131.2 131.0 116 115 116 145.9 145.9 148.2 113 117 116 110 110 111 115 116 115 115.6 110.8 115.1 130.9 133.6 134.1 October November December 132.5 133.2 133.9 118 118 117 150.7 151.1 152.9 117 117 117 111 111 112 117 rl!6 117 120.1 118.7 114.0 135.5 136.5 136.9 January February March 134.4 134.4 134.7 120 118 120 153.5 157.7 158.0 117 118 118 112 112 113 117 115 117 124.2 118.9 119.2 137.9 137.5 138.1 Aoril May June 135.4 136.1 136.5 120 120 121 156.8 153.2 158.3 117 118 121 112 113 115 118 rl!9 119 121.5 118.3 120.1 138.2 139.9 140.0 July August September 138.0 138.5 138.6 122 r!22 r!22 156.2 160.6 161.5 117 124 r!22 116 116 rl!7 119 120 r!20 123.6 116.4 r!20.3 139.5 r!40.8 141.0 October November December 139.3 r!39.8 p!40.2 (NA) p!60.5 (NA) p!21 (NA) pl!3 (NA) p!20 (NA) (NA) r!40.4 p!39.9 (NA) 1987 1988 See note on page 80. Graphs of these series are shown on page 58. Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development. 94 JANUARY 1989 OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS—Continued Q CONSUMER PRICES United States Year and month 320. Index © (1982-84 = 100) Japan 320c. Change over 6-month spans 1 (Ann. rate, percent) 738. Index © (1982-84 = 100) France West Germany 738c. Change over 6-month spans 1 (Ann. rate, percent) 735. Index @ (1982-84=100) 735c. Change over 6-month spans l (Ann. rate, percent) 736. Index © (1982-84 = 100) United K ngdom 736c. Change over 6-month spans 1 (Ann. rate, percent) 732. Index © (1982-84 = 100) 732c. Change over 6-month spans x (Ann. rate, percent) 1986 January February March 109.6 109.3 108.8 0.6 -0.2 0.0 105.0 104.9 104.8 1.2 0.4 0.0 105.5 105.2 104.9 -0.4 -0.8 -1.3 116.1 115.9 116.1 1.4 1.2 1.2 113.1 113.5 113.7 3.2 2.9 1.8 April May June 108.6 108.9 109.5 -0.5 0.4 1.7 105.1 105.4 104.9 -0.6 0.0 -0.6 104.9 104.9 105.0 -1.9 -1.1 -0.6 116.6 116.9 117.2 1.6 2.4 3.3 114.8 115.0 114.9 1.1 1.1 2.1 July August September 109.5 109.7 110.2 2.6 2.8 2.2 104.6 104.4 104.9 -1.7 -0.4 -0.6 104.5 104.2 104.4 -1.1 -1.5 -0.8 117.4 117.5 118.0 2.9 2.9 3.1 114.6 114.9 115.5 2.8 4.2 5.9 October November December 110.3 110.4 110.5 3.7 4.1 4.4 105.0 104.5 104.3 -1.9 -2.3 -0.2 104.1 104.0 104.2 0.0 0.2 0.0 118.2 118.4 118.5 4.5 4.3 3.6 115.7 116.7 117.1 6.8 6.9 5.6 January February March 111.2 111.6 112.1 5.0 5.1 5.3 103.9 103.9 104.3 2.3 0.4 1.3 104.6 104.7 104.7 1.2 1.5 1.2 119.6 119.8 120.0 4.1 4.1 3.4 117.5 118.0 118.2 5.4 3.8 2.4 April May June 112.7 113.1 113.5 4.4 4.5 4.1 105.2 105.4 105.2 2.1 3.3 1.9 104.9 105.0 105.2 1.7 1.7 1.0 120.6 120.9 121.1 2.4 2.7 2.5 119.6 119.7 119.7 2.2 2.0 2.7 July August September 113.8 114.4 115.0 3.9 3.7 3.6 104.7 104.8 105.7 -0.9 1.0 0.0 105.2 105.1 104.9 0.8 0.4 0.8 121.4 121.7 121.7 2.3 2.3 2.8 119.6 120.0 120.3 3.7 4.6 4.8 October November December 115.3 115.4 115.4 3.7 3.2 3.7 105.7 105.2 105.1 0.0 -1.7 -0.4 105.0 105.0 105.2 -0.2 0.0 1.0 122.0 122.2 122.2 2.2 2.1 2.5 120.9 121.5 121.4 4.2 4.2 4.0 January February March 115.7 116.0 116.5 3.9 4.0 4.4 104.8 104.6 105.0 1.3 -0.2 0.2 105.4 105.6 105.7 1.1 1.7 1.3 122.4 122.7 123.0 2.6 2.6 2.5 121.4 121.9 122.3 3.8 3.8 4.6 April May June 117.1 117.5 118.0 4.5 5.1 4.7 105.5 105.6 105.4 0.8 2.1 1.3 106.0 106.2 106.3 1.9 2.3 1.9 123.6 123.9 124.3 3.3 3.4 3.6 124.3 124.8 125.3 5.7 7.5 8.3 July August September 118.5 119.0 119.8 4.7 4.5 4.5 105.2 105.5 106.4 1.5 2.7 (NA) 106.2 106.3 106.3 1.5 1.7 (NA) 124.7 125.1 125.3 3.3 3.3 (NA) 125.4 126.8 127.4 9.5 9.1 (NA) October November December 120.2 120.3 120.5 1987 1988 106.9 106.5 (NA) 106.4 106.7 (NA) 125.6 125.8 (NA) 128.7 129.3 (NA) See note on page 80. Graphs of these series are shown on page 59. Changes over 6-month spans are centered on the 4th month. 1 JANUARY 1989 95 OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES F I INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS—Continued Qj STOCK PRICES Q CONSUMER PRICES-Contmued Canada Italy Year and month 737. Index © (1982-84=100) 737c. Change over 6-month spans 1 (Ann. rate, percent) 733. Index © (1982-84 = 100) 733c. Change over 6-month spans1 (Ann. rate, percent) 19. United States, index of stock prices, 500 common stocks © 748. Japan, index of stock prices @ 745. West Germany, index of stock prices @ 746. France, index of stock prices © 742. United Kingdom, index of stock prices © 747. Italy, index of stock prices © 743. Canada, index of stock prices © (1967 = 100) (1967 = 100) (1967 = 100) (1967 = 100) (1967 = 100) (1967 = 100) (1967 = 100) 1987 January February March 131.6 132.1 132.6 4.2 4.7 4.5 115.8 116.3 116.8 4.4 4.7 4.2 287.7 305.6 318.1 1,492.7 1,577.3 1,675.5 308.8 285.2 288.5 642.1 660.1 708.1 841.0 917.9 973.1 r526.9 r503.2 r502.1 378.4 395.4 422.5 April May June 132.9 133.4 133.9 4.8 5.9 6.5 117.3 118.0 118.3 5.1 5.2 4.7 314.7 314.5 327.8 1,856.7 1,937.3 1,965.7 304.2 302.3 313.7 725.9 703.6 664.6 957.2 1,042.0 1,098.5 r533.4 r533.6 483.6 420.0 416.4 422.6 July August September 134.3 134.6 135.6 6.8 6.4 5.5 119.2 119.3 119.3 4.5 3.8 4.1 337.3 358.3 346.6 1,806.9 1,902.6 1,888.0 327.7 340.7 330.0 691.9 704.9 729.8 1,155.7 1,102.2 1,121.9 r495.0 r460.1 r452.1 455.4 451.3 440.9 October November December 136.8 137.2 137.4 5.1 4.0 3.4 119.7 120.2 120.3 3.1 2.9 3.5 304.8 266.5 262.1 1,831.8 1,676.8 1,654.9 306.1 234.2 224.2 632.8 508.5 484.6 1,028.6 795.0 810.9 r450.2 r367.0 r361.4 341.2 336.5 357.1 January February March 138.1 138.5 139.1 3.5 3.5 4.0 120.5 121.0 121.6 3.5 4.4 4.0 272.5 280.8 289.1 1,654.9 1,797.4 1,909.4 213.0 223.3 237.7 465.0 501.6 510.3 864.2 859.2 889.1 r349.2 r334.2 r377.4 345.4 362.1 374.4 April May June 139.6 140.0 140.4 4.5 5.9 5.9 122.0 122.8 122.9 4.5 5.2 4.5 285.7 278.6 294.4 1,960.5 1,962.2 1,978.5 235.9 230.4 246.1 523.5 545.7 609.1 880.3 879.1 907.5 r383.6 r359.9 r373.0 377.4 367.1 388.9 July August September 140.8 141.4 142.1 5.8 7.0 123.7 124.1 124.1 4.6 3.6 3.8 292.7 286.9 291.5 1,971.2 1,987.1 1,923.6 253.2 253.6 260.5 632.2 618.6 636.0 933.1 909.2 r400.0 r416.8 r393.2 381.6 371.3 371.0 October November December 143.2 144.4 301.8 294.8 300.8 pi, 913. 8 p2, 009.1 p2,074.2 272.3 272.4 645.3 P659.7 rp669.1 r432.3 436.7 435.6 383.7 372.3 383.0 p309.2 p2,167.6 p726.0 p369.3 p403.0 1988 (NA) (NA) 124.7 125.1 125.1 (NA) (NA) 1989 January February March April May June July August September October November December See note on | Graphs of these series are shown on page 59. Changes over 6-month spans are centered on the 4th month. 96 JANUARY 1989 Business Cycle Indicators: Revised Composite Indexes By MARIE P. HERTZBERG and BARRY A. BECKMAN BEA. is revising its composite indexes of leading, coincident, and lagging indicators, the key indexes in its analytic system designed to help predict peaks and troughs in the business cycle. The revision will be effective with the release on March 3 of estimates for January 1989. Since their initial publication in Business Conditions Digest (BCD) in 1968, the indexes have been revised a number of times.1 This revision, like the earlier ones, incorporates changes in the components, changes in methodology for computing the indexes, updated statistical factors, and historical revisions in component data. The revision includes the following changes: • Index of leading indicators: Two components are dropped, two components are improved, and two components are added; • Index of lagging indicators: One component is improved and one component is added; and • Methodology for computing the indexes: A new method of smoothing irregular series and some other minor changes are introduced. In addition, the base year of the indexes is changed to 1982. Elements of the Revision Several characteristics of a time series are used to analyze and evaluate the existing and the potential composite index components. The most important of these characteristics are cyclical timing, economic significance, and currency. Cyclical timing is determined by the consistency with which the cyclical turning points in a series lead, coincide with, or lag the business cycle 1. The last overall revision was in 1983. In addition, in 1987 one component of the leading index was removed and one component of the lagging index was recalculated. JANUARY 1989 turns. Economic significance refers to the importance of the economic activity measured by the series. Currency takes into account both the periodicity of the data and the promptness with which they are available. In addition, component series are considered in terms of statistical adequacy, conformity to business cycles, smoothness, and revisions. Statistical adequacy refers to the quality of the data and includes factors such as the type of reporting system, the coverage of the data, and the length of the series and its comparability over time. Conformity refers to the consistency of the cyclical pattern of the series in relation to the business cycles, and it includes the amplitude of the cycles and the existence of extra turning points. Smoothness refers to the ease with which the cyclical movements in the series can be observed. Revisions refers to the size and frequency of revisions in recently released data. The components selected for the revised composite indexes, using these series characteristics, are listed in table 1 along with the components of the current indexes. Changes in index components The leading index.—Two series—the change in credit outstanding and the change in inventories on hand and on order—are dropped from the leading index because their current data are not available in time to be included in the initial estimate of the index. In the past, the major factor in the first revision of the index was the addition of data for these two components. (See "A Note on Revisions to the Leading Indicators" in the May 1988 SURVEY OF CURRENT BUSINESS, p. 21.) Excluding these components should reduce considerably the size of the first revisions in the index. Subsequent index revisions also should be smaller because the dropped components were subject to substantial revisions after they became available. Because of the important role of credit in the economy, an improved, more promptly available series is being tested as a potential replacement for the change in credit outstanding. (See "Areas of Future Work.") For the change in inventories on hand and on order, the on-order portion, which is available promptly, is included in the new change in unfilled orders component (see below). The inventories-on-hand portion, in addition to not being available promptly, does not qualify as a leader. Two components of the leading index are improved. First, vendor performance, which has been derived from a survey of manufacturers in the Chicago area, is now based on a national survey conducted by the National Association of Purchasing Management. The Data Availability Data for 1948 through June 1988 for the revised composite indexes and their components, plus revised statistical factors and a description of the changes in the indexes, are available on printouts and on a diskette. To order, write to Economic and Statistical Analysis/BEA, U.S. Department of Commerce, Citizens and Southern National Bank, 222 Mitchell Street, P.O. Box 100606, Atlanta, GA 30384. Specify Revised Indicator Estimates (Accession No. BEA SID 89-201 for printouts or BEA SID 89-401 for diskette), and include a check or money order for $4.00 for printouts or $20.00 for diskette, payable to "Economic and Statistical Analysis/BEA." Add 25 percent for foreign shipment. For further information about these products or how to order them, write to the Statistical Indicators Division (BE-60), Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Department of Commerce, Washington, DC 20230 or call (202) 523-0800. These data and information will also be available about February 10 on the Commerce Department's Economic Bulletin Board, a subscription service providing electronic distribution of economic information to computer users. For specifications and costs, call (202) 377-1986. 97 national data, which begin in 1976, are judged to be more appropriate because of their broader coverage; the Chicago data continue to be used for the period before 1976. Data for both periods are seasonally adjusted. Second, the change in sensitive materials prices is recalculated: Price series that on the changes in methodology for an are no longer available are dropped for explanation of smoothing.) the entire period, those that display Two components are added to the seasonal variation are seasonally ad- leading index. First, the change in unjusted, and all are weighted equally. filled orders (in 1982 dollars) of durable In addition, the method of smoothing goods manufacturers is added. This sethe series is changed. (See the section ries covers all durable goods, whereas the unfilled orders data previously included as a component of the change in Table 1.—Components of Current and Revised Composite Indexes inventories on hand and on order exclude capital goods and defense prodCurrent Revised ucts. Second, the index of consumer expectations, compiled by the University Composite Index of Leading Indicators of Michigan's Survey Research Center, is added to provide a new dimension to Average weekly hours of production or Same. the leading index by including an asnonsupervisory workers, manufacturing. pect of economic activity not covered Average weekly initial claims for unemployment Same. previously. insurance, State programs (inverted). The coincident index.—No changes Manufacturers' new orders in 1982 dollars, Same. are made in the four components of this consumer goods and materials industries. index. Contracts and orders for plant and equipment in Same. 1982 dollars. The lagging index.—One component of the lagging index is improved. For Index of new private housing units authorized by Same. local building permits. the labor cost per unit of output in manufacturing, the revised index uses Index of stock prices, 500 common stocks Same. the percent changes in this measure Money supply M2 in 1982 dollars Same. rather than the deviations from trend Vendor performance, percent of companies Same title; incorporates improved data source used in the current index. This change receiving slower deliveries. for recent years. eliminates the need to estimate the Change in sensitive materials prices, smoothed .. Same title; based on revised methodology and current trend, a difficult task in a peconsistent data for entire period. riod when the trend is changing. Change in business and consumer credit Dropped. One new component is added to the outstanding. lagging index. The change in the conChange in manufacturing and trade inventories Dropped. sumer price index for services, comon hand and on order in 1982 dollars, piled by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, smoothed. increases the representation of services Change in manufacturers' unfilled orders in in the index. 1982 dollars, durable goods industries, smoothed. Index of consumer expectations. Composite Index of Coincident Indicators Employees on nonagricultural payrolls Same. Personal income less transfer payments in 1982 dollars. Same. Index of industrial production Same. Manufacturing and trade sales in 1982 dollars Same. Composite Index of Lagging Indicators Average duration of unemployment in weeks (inverted). Same. Ratio, manufacturing and trade inventories to sales in 1982 dollars. Same. Average prime rate charged by banks Same. Same. Commercial and industrial loans outstanding in 1982 dollars. Ratio, consumer installment credit outstanding to personal income. Same. Index of labor cost per unit of output, manufacturing—actual data as a percent of trend. Change in index of labor cost per unit of output, manufacturing, smoothed. Change in consumer price index for services, smoothed. Changes in methodology Each composite index measures the average behavior of a group of economic time series that show similar timing at business cycle turns but that represent widely differing activities or sectors of the economy. The procedures used to construct the indexes offset the tendency of volatile series to dominate the average, and they enhance the usefulness of the three indexes as a consistent system. The current procedures were explained in the November 1987 SURVEY OF CURRENT BUSINESS (pp. 24-28). This revision incorporates four changes in those procedures. In addition, statistical factors— standardization factors for the components, standardization factors for the indexes, and trend adjustment factors—are updated, as shown in tables 2, 3, and 4; revised historical data are incorporated; and the base year of the indexes is changed from 1967 to 1982. JANUARY 1989 Smoothing of components.—For many economic time series, irregular short-term movements mask the underlying cyclical patterns in the series, particularly in the case of series that are expressed as differences or rates of change. To dampen the irregular fluctuations and to clarify the cyclical movements, smoothing techniques are used. Acknowledgments The revision was organized and carried out by Marie P. Hertzberg under the supervision of Edward K. Smith, former Associate Director for National Analysis and Projections. Barry A. Beckman was responsible for the statistical research. He was assisted by Brian D. Kajutti, Robert J. McCahill, Charles S. Robinson, Amy M. Wu, and Mary D. Young of the Statistical Indicators Division. Gail James prepared the charts associated with the research. Feliks Tamm and George R. Green served as chief of the division during this period. BEA benefited from the suggestions and advice of the Business Conditions Digest Technical Committee, whose members represent several Federal agencies. Geoffrey H. Moore, Director of the Center for International Business Cycle Research (CIBCR) at Columbia University, and Victor Zarnowitz of the University of Chicago, who were engaged as consultants by BEA, also provided useful suggestions. In addition, BEA benefited from a recent study at the CIBCR that was carried out by Moore. A commonly used smoothing technique is the moving average, which can be computed with equal or variable weights and can be placed at either the center or the end of the span. Although a properly selected moving for recent months. End-of-span moving average can smooth an erratic series, averages, such as those used to smooth it does so at the expense of other desir- two components of the current leading able characteristics. Centered moving index, do not lose currency but shift the averages are not used in the compos- turning points forward, reducing their ite indexes, because they lose currency leads. Table 2.—Standardization Factors and Weights for Components Current index Standardization factor » Component series Revised index Weight Standardization factor J Weight Ft = 0.134.4, Leading index components: Average weekly hours of production or nonsupervisory workers, manufacturing 0.467 1.014 0.477 1.000 Average weekly initial claims for unemployment insurance, State programs3.... 5.374 1.041 5.236 1.000 Manufacturers' new orders in 1982 dollars, consumer goods and materials industries 2.818 .973 2.714 1.000 Vendor performance percent of companies receiving slower deliveries* 3.840 1.081 3.423 1.000 Contracts and orders for plant and equipment in 1982 dollars 6.194 .946 6.110 1.000 Index of new private housing units authorized by local building permits 5.064 1.054 5.095 1.000 Change in manufacturing and trade inventories on hand and on order in 1982 dollars smoothed*4 5.855 .986 .459 1.000 .324 .892 .174 1.000 2.633 1.149 2.640 1.000 .417 .932 .440 1.000 2.627 .959 1.951 1.000 Change in manufacturers' unfilled orders in 1982 dollars, durable goods industries smoothed*5 . Change in sensitive materials prices smoothed*4 .. . 5 Index of stock prices, 500 common stocks Money supply M2 in 1982 dollars Change in business and consumer credit outstanding* . .. Index of consumer expectations* . Coincident index components: Employees on nonagricultural payrolls .321 1.064 .318 1.000 Personal income less transfer payments in 1982 dollars .502 1.003 .481 1.000 Index of industrial production .924 1.028 .901 1.000 1.021 .905 1.000 1.000 Manufacturing and trade sales in 1982 dollars Lagging index components: Average duration of unemployment in weeks 3 3.587 1.098 3.470 1.000 Ratio manufacturing and trade inventories to sales in 1982 dollars* .016 .894 .016 1.000 Index of labor cost per unit of output, manufacturing— actual data as a percent of trend* .557 .868 1.251 1.000 .376 1.123 Commercial and industrial loans outstanding in 1982 dollars .901 Ratio, consumer installment credit outstanding to personal income* .062 Change in index of labor cost per unit of output manufacturing smoothed* 3 Average prime rate charged by banks* Change in consumer price index for services smoothed* 3 6 7 .355 1.000 1.009 .927 1.000 1.009 .067 1.000 .434 1.000 * First differences rather than symmetrical percent changes are computed for this series. 1. Except as noted, current standardization factors are computed over the period 1948-81. 2. Except as noted, revised standardization factors are computed over the period 1948-85 (or beginning with the first year after 1948 for which data are available). 3. Changes for this series are inverted; i.e., they are multiplied by -1. 4. In the current index, this series is smoothed with a 4-term moving average (weighted 1,2,2,1) placed at the end of the span. 5. In the revised index, this series is smoothed with a filtering technique developed by Statistics Canada. 6. This standardization factor is computed over the perjod 1966-81. 7. This standardization factor is computed over the period 1966-85. JANUARY 1989 In the revised composite indexes, a technique developed by Statistics Canada is used to smooth two leading index components and two lagging index components. This technique utilizes an autoregressivemoving-average filter that minimizes the amount of lead time sacrificed for a given amount of smoothing. The filtered series F is derived from the actual series A by applying the following formula2: _i - 0.586Ft_2 (The result is similar to a weighted average of series A with weights for the current month and the 6 preceding months equal to 0.134, 0.195, 0.204, 0.182, 0.145, 0.104, and 0.036, respectively.) Weighting of components. — In the current composite indexes, each component is assigned a weight that reflects the overall performance score of that series as a cyclical indicator. The score for each indicator is based on an evaluation of the time series characteristics mentioned in the discussion of component selection: Cyclical timing, economic significance, currency, statistical adequacy, conformity to business cycles, smoothness, and revisions. Because only indicators of relatively high quality are included as components of the composite indexes, the weights fall into a narrow range, and the effect of the weighting is minimal (table 2). In the computation of the revised indexes, the components of each index are assigned equal weights. This procedure simplifies the construction of the indexes and the analysis of each component's contribution. 2. For the derivation of the formula, see Darryl Rhoades, "Converting Timeliness into Reliability in Economic Time Series or Minimum Phase Shift. Filtering of Economic Time Series," Canadian Statistical Review 55 (February 1980): vi-xviii. 99 Table 3.—Standardization Factors for Composite Indexes Curren t index ' Composite index Leading index Table 4.—Trend Adjustment Factors for Composite Indexes Index Index Average Average standard- absolute standardabsolute ization change3 ization4 change 3 factor factor4 0496 0.582 0.522 0.625 Coincident index .852 1.000 .835 1.000 Lagging index 602 707 573 686 1. Factors are computed over the period 1948-81. 2. Factors are computed over the period 1948-85. 3. The average absolute change for each index is obtained as follows: (a) For each month, an average of the standardized changes of all components in that index is computed; (b) the average without regard to sign is calculated from these monthly averages for the entire period. For the current indexes, the average in step (a) is computed from weighted standardized changes. 4. This measure is the ratio of the average absolute change in each index to the average absolute change in the coincident index. Trend adjustment of composite indexes.—The current indexes include an adjustment that sets the trend in each index equal to a predetermined target trend. The revised indexes undergo the same trend adjustment procedure, but use a revised definition of the target trend (table 4). For the current indexes, the target trend is the average of the trends of the four components of the coincident index; for the revised indexes, the target trend is the trend of real gross national product (GNP). This change has little effect on the indexes, because the trend of real GNP is almost the same as the average trend of the coincident index components. (For the revised indexes, the target trend computed from real GNP is 0.261 percent per month; it would be 0.268 percent per month using the same method as used in the current indexes.) The change is made because economists consider the trend of real GNP to be the more appropriate measure of the growth in aggregate economic activity. Updating of composite indexes.— Each month BEA updates the composite indexes to include the latest available data for their components. This updating includes both the computation of a preliminary index value for the latest data month and the recomputation of recent index values to incorporate revised component data. In the current indexes, the updating covers 12 index values—1 new value plus the 11 preceding values. In the revised indexes, only six index values will be computed each month—one new value plus the five preceding values. The shorter recomputation period will pick up most routine monthly revi- 100 [Percent per month] Revise d index 2 Current index ' Composite index Trend in raw index Revised index a Trend adjustment factor J Trend in raw index Trend adjustment factor J Leading index .. 0.132 0.139 0.118 0.142 Coincident index .446 -.175 .447 -.186 Lagging index .253 .018 .231 .030 1. Trends are computed over the period 1948-81. 2. Trends are computed over the period 1948-85. 3. The trend adjustment factor is the target trend minus the trend in the raw index. The target trend is 0.271 for the current indexes and 0.261 for the revised indexes. sions in the index components. In order to pick up longer term revisions, such as seasonal and benchmark revisions, the composite indexes will undergo annual recomputations to incorporate revised component data for earlier periods. The first recomputation is scheduled for the fall of 1989. Cyclical Patterns in the Composite Indexes The current and revised composite indexes for 1948 through June 1988 are shown in chart 1, where the lead or lag of each index at each business cycle turning point is indicated. The chart shows that the cyclical patterns in each pair of indexes are very much alike; that is, the current and revised indexes show similar cyclical amplitudes, similar degrees of smoothness, and relatively minor differences in turning points. For the leading indexes, the revised and current versions each have average leads of about 9x/2 months at business cycle peaks. The leads range from 2 to 20 months for the revised index and from 3 to 23 months for the current index. At recent peaks, the lead of the revised index at the January 1980 peak is 5 months longer than the lead of the current index, and at the July 1981 peak it is 1 month shorter. The false signals in the indexes are similar; both indexes show obvious downturns in 1950-51, 1966, and 1984 that do not lead to recessions. At business cycle troughs, the average lead of the revised leading index is 4.5 months, and the average lead of the current index is 3.2 months. This difference is largely accounted for by the 8-month longer lead of the revised in- dex at the February 1961 trough. The leads at troughs range from 1 to 10 months for the revised index and 1 to 8 months for the current index. For the coincident indexes, the turning points of the two indexes are the same except for the July 1953 peak, where the revised index is exactly coincident and the current index has a 2-month lead. More than half of the turning points of each index are exact coincidences, and—except for the 6month lead at the August 1957 peak— the rest fall within 3 months of the business cycle turns. For the lagging indexes, the average lag at business cycle peaks is 4.5 months for the revised index and 5.9 months for the current index. This difference is largely accounted for by the 9-month longer lag of the current index at the July 1981 peak. The lags at peaks range from 2 to 13 months for both indexes. At business cycle troughs, the average lag of the revised lagging index is 8.5 months, and the average lag of the current index is 9.8 months. The largest difference is at the July 1980 trough, where the lag of the current index is 6 months longer. The lags at troughs range from 3 to 15 months for the revised index and 4 to 15 months for the current index. The differences in the turning points are caused by the addition, deletion, and modification of components, by the use of updated statistical factors and revised historical data, or by a combination of these. In all, there were 16 differences in turning points; in 9 of them, the differences were only 1 or 2 months. • In the leading index, the differences at the July 1981 peak and the February 1961 and November 1982 troughs are caused primarily by updated statistical factors and revised historical data. The four other differences are caused primarily by changes in the selection of components. • In the coincident index, the only difference in the turning points (July 1953 peak) is the result of updated statistical factors and revised historical data. • In the lagging index, the differences at the March 1975 and July 1980 troughs are caused primarily by updated statistical factors and revised historical data. The six other differences are caused primarily by changes in the selection of components. JANUARY 1989 Areas of Future Work BEA plans to review the selection, coverage, and presentation of data in BCD. In addition, BEA has under way further work on the composite indexes. This additional research is focused on three areas: First, on expanding the coverage of the indexes; second, on further improving the quality of some components; and third, on providing a theoretical framework for the indexes. Coverage.—Users of the composite indexes have suggested that measures of service activity and of international activity, areas that have been increasing in importance, be added to the leading index. As part of the current revision, BEA searched for leading indicators in these areas, but results were marginal—one service series was added to the lagging index. Work in this area is continuing. The available data on services were found not to contain much cyclical vari- ation. Many service activities continue to grow during business cycle contractions as well as during expansions. In a recent review of the cyclical indicators system, Geoffrey H. Moore, of the Center for International Business Cycle Research, reached a similar conclusion; he concurred with BEA's relatively heavy reliance on manufacturing, construction, and trade in its system of indicators. Moore developed a separate system of indicators for services, based on six Chart 1. Composite Indexes of Leading, Coincident, and Lagging Indicators 1982 =100 (Ratio scale) 1967 =100 (Ratio scale) 150 140 130 120 110 100 90 80 70 60 50 130 120 110 100 90 80 70 60 50 120 110 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 L- 1948 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 NOTE.—Peak (P) indicates the end of a business cycle expansion and the beginning of a recession (shaded area). Trough (T) indicates the end of a business cycle recession and the beginning of an expansion. Business cycle peaks and troughs are designated by the National JANUARY 1989 Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. The numbers entered on the chart indicate the3 lilength of leads ( — ) and lags ( + ) in months from the business cycle turning dates. 101 monthly and two quarterly series, that focuses on growth rates rather than on levels of activity. The reference cycles of his system are based on a chronology of peaks and troughs in growth rates of service activity—therefore, they differ from the reference cycle chronology designated by the National Bureau of Economic Research and used by BEA to determine leads and lags. Although this system of service indicators provides some gauge of leads and lags in growth rates of services, it cannot be readily combined with BEA's system of composite indexes. When BEA revises the selection of data published in BCD, growth rates of some service activities will be added. BEA will continue to monitor data on service activity. As service activity evolves further and more data become available, it may be possible to develop cyclical indicators of services suitable for inclusion in the leading index. With respect to international activities, BEA attempted to find a measure that could be added to the leading index. However, an adequate measure of future foreign demand for U.S. goods is not available. In addition, in many cases data from foreign statistical agencies, which could be used to construct a series, are not available promptly. BEA will continue to monitor international data to determine if a suitable component for the leading index can be developed. Quality of components.—BEA and the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System have compiled a new series on changes in business and consumer credit outstanding. The new series differs from the one dropped in the revision in two respects—preliminary data are available for the most recent month and the estimates cover all business and consumer credit rather than selected components. BEA is monitoring the suitability of the new series— particularly the size of its revisions— for inclusion in the leading index. BEA is considering the substitution of employee hours in nonagricultural establishments for the number of employees on nonagricultural payrolls, which is now a component of the coincident index. Both series have shortcomings as business cycle indicators. Counting the number of employees gives equal weight to part-time and full-time workers and counts workers 102 Origin of Business Cycle Indicators Research at the National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. (NBER) explored the role of individual economic time series in the business cycle and established the foundation for later studies of leading, coincident, and lagging indicators. NBER's first list of cyclical indicators, compiled by Arthur F. Burns and Wesley C. Mitchell, was published in 1938. In 1946, Burns and Mitchell described business cycles as follows: "Business cycles are a type of fluctuation found in the aggregate economic activity of nations that organize their work mainly in business enterprises; a cycle consists of expansions occurring at about the same time in many economic activities, followed by similarly general recessions, contractions, and revivals which merge into the expansion phase of the next cycle; this sequence of changes is recurrent but not periodic; in duration business cycles vary from more than one year to ten or twelve years; they are not divisible into shorter cycles of similar character with amplitudes approximating their own." (Measuring Business Cycles, NBER (1946).) In 1961, the U.S. Department of Commerce began publishing a monthly report that featured the NBER's leading, coincident, and lagging indicators. The composite indexes of cyclical indicators were first published by the Department in 1968. with more than one job more than once. The hours series does not have these drawbacks, but it may be distorted when a holiday or severe weather falls in the survey week. The Bureau of Labor Statistics is developing adjustments to remove the effects of holidays. Suitable adjustments for the effects of severe weather do not appear feasible. Once the adjustments for holidays are incorporated, BEA will compare the number of employees series with the hours series and will decide which is the better coincident indicator. The Census Bureau is investigating data sources that could be used to compile a net business formation series that BEA could include in the leading index. A similar indicator was removed from the index in 1987 because of statistical inadequacy. Theoretical framework.—A better understanding of the theoretical framework that underlies leading indicators can improve the analysis of indicators and may lead to a better system of indicators. BEA and researchers elsewhere are working on developing such a framework for the cyclical indicators. In a recent study, Frank de Leeuw, of BEA, notes five rationales that underlie one or more of the components of BEA's index of leading indicators: • A "prime mover" of the economy; or • The first difference of a series that parallels economic activity.3 This study develops a theoretical model, based on the dynamic theory of production, that incorporates the first three of these rationales. Simulations demonstrate that under some conditions, but not under others, the theoretical model implies lead-lag relationships similar to those implied by the index of leading indicators. The model can be solved to yield a reduced form that resembles the composite index of leading indicators in some respects but that differs from it in others. This reduced form is the basis for a "theorybased" indicator that the study compares with the official composite index. "Prime movers," the fourth rationale in this study, are defined as fiscal and monetary policies, foreign economic developments, technological changes, and other fundamental forces that most experts believe have a major impact on economic activity. A second study by Frank de Leeuw, which will appear in a forthcoming issue of the SURVEY OF CURRENT BUSINESS, documents the low representation of prime movers in leading indexes for many countries. It lists possible reasons for low representation and considers ways of improving the performance of prime movers as leaders. Finally, the study • An early stage in a production constructs a prime mover-based leading index. process; • An easily adaptable dimension of 3. Frank de Leeuw, "Toward a Theory of Leading economic activity; Indicators," Leading Economic Indicators: New Apand Forecasting Methods, edited by Kajal • A market highly sensitive to expec- proaches Lahiri and Geoffrey H. Moore, Cambridge University tations about activity; Press, forthcoming. JANUARY 1989 . ,„ i l l : „ '•; - , " 7 » ;-. ;• •:: i I* '•: !" >, :C .• ~ '. id * 5 i:- t S i »: L H [ ••" s »E E 1£1 | t "S ? ;| j -,.( Ef- " — HANDBOOK OF CYCLICAL 1 INDICATORS "E £ v ?;« IK u is 3 '^ iJ ?f ii s! «£ v st *i >5 SS. i'i iii 1 i" i 2 ?: L" K :s •; «» ,s f rif' rhi ?« \I s u" is ?r iiiir r - £ KJ :;s r BUSINESS CONDITIONS DIGEST (BCD) HANDBOOK OF CYCLICAL INDICATORS . . . a monthly report that helps you analyze the current eponomy and future trends. . . . a statistical and technical supplement that helps you make maximum use of the monthly Business Conditions Digest. BCD has "a plethora of charts that. . . provide more information and perspective per minute of reading time than anything else you can find," according to Edgar R. Fiedler, former president of the National Association of Business Economists. (Across the Board, February 1984.) The HANDBOOK contains: • Descriptions of all BCD series, providing definitions, methods of compilation, coverage, and sources. • Historical data for 1947-82 for all BCD series. BCD contains: • Charts providing a 25-year perspective for about 300 economic time series that cover all major aspects of the economy. Expansions and contractions in the U.S. economy are clearly marked so that the leading, coincident, and lagging characteristics of the series are easy to observe. • Composite index methodology explaining the construction of the indexes in step-by-step detail. • Reference materials including— Scores for cyclical indicators Average leads or lags for cyclical indicators • Tables listing current data for all 300 series. Measures of variability • Appendixes providing historical data, cyclical turning points, cyclical comparisons, and seasonal adjustment factors. Business cycle turning dates Bibliography Addresses of data sources. : Superintendent of Documents, U.S. Government Printing Office, Washington, D.C. 20402 Q check, Enclosed is $ LI money order, or charge to my Deposit Account No. Credit Card Orders Only Total charges $ Fill in the boxes below. MasterCard and VISA accepted. Credit .—r Card No. I I Expiration Date Month/Year Order No., Q] Business Conditions Digest... Annual subscription: $44.00 domestic, $55.00 foreign. Single copy: $4.00 domestic, $5.00 foreign. Q] Handbook of Cyclical Indicators... $5.50 Company or Personal Name Additional address/attention line Street address City (or Country) PLEASE PRINT OR TYPE State ZIP Code Customer's Telephone No.'s I Area Code Area Code Charge orders may be telephoned to the GPO order desk at (202)783-3238 from 8:00 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. eastern time, Monday-Friday (except holidays). For Office Use Only Charges Quantity Publications Subscriptions Special Shipping Charges International Handling Special Charges OPNR UPNS Balance Due Discount Refund 982 GPO 8 9 0 - 9 1 0 C. Historical Data for Selected Series Year Jan. Mar. Feb. Apr. May June July Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec. I Q 73. INDEX OF INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION , DURABLE M A N U F A C T U R E S ( 1977 = 100) 1954. . . 1955 . . . 956... 957 . . . 958. .. 959... 960. .. 961 ... 962. .. 1963.. . 1964. . . 1965 . . . 1966... 1967 . . . 1968... 1969... 1970... 1972... 1973. .. 1974... 1975... 1976... 1977 . . . 1978... 1979... 1980... 1981 . . . 1982 . . . 1983... 1984. . . 1985... 1986. .. 1987... 1988. . . ll Q III Q IV Q AVERAGE FOR PERIOD 44.9 45.0 41.2 47 .4 48.9 43.2 45.1 40.2 43.2 46.8 48.9 40.6 39.5 45.6 47 .0 48.0 39.4 9.1 6 .4 5.6 7.9 1.6 49.7 53.5 50.9 53.8 51.7 54.0 76.7 77.2 87 .6 98.0 95.8 83.5 91.8 102 . 1 110.9 113.5 107.4 59.7 70.4 78.7 77.0 81.2 85.0 73.6 78.6 89.6 98.4 95.2 84.0 91 .9 102.3 111.9 113.7 109.2 62.7 70.7 77.3 78.9 82.4 83 .4 73.0 78.7 91.3 98.9 92.6 84.5 94.0 102.2 113.0 113.0 112.0 64.2 72.2 77.8 79.8 83.0 82.5 76.0 79.4 92.3 96.8 87.7 85.6 95.1 103.9 114.4 113.3 111.8 99.3 110.9 126 .6 128.5 98.1 113.1 125 .8 127.8 96.3 114.4 126 . 1 127.4 96.2 114.9 126 .5 128.7 96.5 116.3 126.5 128.7 44.2 51.8 54.7 58.5 65.6 73.8 76.8 79.7 83.9 79.6 76.7 82.7 94. 1 94.4 82 .8 88.3 96.2 102.8 114.7 113.0 11.6 02.9 00.2 20.9 26 .7 133.8 133.7 136.8 136.7 137.3 130.5 46 .6 52.4 56.3 59.7 67.8 75.9 76 .3 80.6 83.9 78.8 77.1 85.0 95.7 95.3 80.7 90.4 99.4 107.0 113.8 106.8 112.2 101.0 104.6 123.5 127 .6 127.7 131.4 7 .7 8.8 3.0 6.6 1.1 9.8 7.0 6.4 80.6 84.6 77.8 76.4 86.4 97.3 95.5 82.4 92.1 101.6 110.1 113.6 105.7 112.8 99.3 110.9 126.0 127.9 128.1 133.7 34.8 38.9 40.8 41.6 40.9 46.2 47.7 48.2 51.6 54.5 58.1 61.5 5.7 7. 1 1.9 6.0 6.2 8.3 86.0 90.6 91.3 81.9 92.0 99.9 105.5 108.3 105.2 110.6 104.8 112.1 122.2 35.3 39.2 41.0 42.0 42.7 46 .9 47.2 49.2 52.1 55.0 58.6 62.4 66.6 67.8 73.0 76 .9 76.3 80.0 86 .9 91.4 91.3 86.4 93.3 100.6 106.5 108.4 105.8 110.9 105.3 116 .4 122.9 36.4 40.5 41 .4 41.3 43.8 46 .7 46.8 50.8 52.3 55.8 59.4 3.5 7 .0 0.0 4.1 6 .7 76.3 82.1 88.7 91.5 87.1 89.3 95.7 101 .6 107.4 108.6 107.8 107.6 105.4 117.8 122.9 35.2 39.1 41. 1 41.8 42.1 46.3 47 .4 48.8 51.8 54.6 58.2 62. 1 66.0 68.1 72.5 76.3 76.3 79.4 86.5 90.8 90.2 84.5 93.1 100.0 105.5 108.2 107.0 109.7 105.5 113.7 122.3 130.7 138.6 132.1 139.7 130. 1 136.8 0.6 2.3 40.3 43 .0 39.6 44.2 39.3 44.9 39.5 45.9 39.6 45.9 39.2 46.2 39.1 46.5 39.1 6.4 39.7 47.2 40.5 46.9 8.7 1.8 5.9 2.0 4.4 51.0 54.3 58.2 64.8 73.1 77.5 79.7 83.4 79.7 49 .2 40.4 46.9 51.5 44.0 52.0 54.7 58.5 65.4 73.7 76 .7 79.9 83.8 79.6 48.9 39.6 48.0 50.4 44. 1 52.4 55.0 58.7 66.5 74.7 76.2 79.6 48.2 38.7 49.4 49.6 45.7 52.8 55.7 59.5 67.1 75.6 76 .3 79.8 47.5 39. 1 50.5 49.2 46.7 52.4 56.5 59.7 67 .8 75.9 76 .4 80.9 48.3 40.5 50.9 48.1 47.5 52. 1 48.0 40.8 48.4 48.1 48.4 52.6 48.3 41 .8 7.4 2.3 46.2 42.5 47.9 49 .4 53.0 7.1 8.6 53.4 59.9 68.4 76.3 76. 1 81.1 60.6 69.8 76.6 75.8 80.7 61.0 69.7 76.8 76.8 80.6 61.6 69.8 77.6 76.5 80.4 79.6 79.0 78.8 78.5 81.9 93.1 94.8 84.8 86.9 95.3 102.4 114.0 112.7 82.8 94.6 94.2 82.6 89.1 96. 1 102.3 114.8 113.3 83.4 94.6 94.1 80.9 88.8 97.1 103.7 115.2 113.1 85.1 95 .0 94.1 81.2 89.3 98.5 106.4 112.1 109.9 85.0 95.5 95.6 80.5 91.1 99.4 106.7 114.5 106.2 85.0 96.5 96.1 80.5 90.8 100.3 07.9 14.8 04.2 78.4 76.8 85 .3 97.0 95.3 81.0 91.8 101.0 109.2 114.2 103.9 78.2 75.1 86 .4 96.9 95 .4 82.6 92.8 101.8 110.1 113.1 105.9 101.9 98.7 119.9 126.3 129.8 129.3 103.8 100.1 120.9 126.4 103.0 101.8 121.8 127.5 101.7 103.3 122.8 127.4 100.9 104.7 123.3 128.0 00.5 05 .9 24.5 27 .5 100.5 108.6 125.5 127.4 130.8 131.5 130.9 131.4 132.0 133.5 74. INDEX OF INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION, N O N D U R A B L E M A N U F A C T U R E S ( 1977 = 100) 34.6 8.5 1. 1 1.5 0.3 6.1 47.7 34.8 39.1 40.8 41.7 40.8 46.3 47.8 35.0 39.2 40.5 41.6 41.7 46.1 47.5 35.1 39.2 40.8 42.0 42.1 46 .9 47.6 35.1 38.9 41.0 42.0 42.8 46 .8 47.1 51.5 54.4 57.9 51.7 54.6 58.3 51.7 54.6 58.1 52.0 54.4 58.5 51.9 55. 1 58.7 35.6 39.5 41.1 42 . 1 43.1 46.9 47.0 49.3 52.3 55.4 58.7 40.5 47 .2 48.3 44.8 44.2 46.6 45.7 50.8 53.8 57 .6 62.2 71.1 77.9 78.6 82.2 83.6 74.2 78.9 91.1 98.0 91.8 84.7 93.7 102.8 113.1 113.3 111.0 107 .7 96.3 115.2 126 .4 128.3 129.1 136.9 36.3 40.5 41.2 41.2 44.0 46 .5 46.7 50.9 52.4 55.9 59.3 67.1 70.0 74.7 76.7 76.0 82 .0 88.5 92.0 87.5 89.4 95.5 101.9 107.3 108.6 107.7 107 .9 105 .7 117.9 123.2 67.2 70.6 74.0 76.9 76.7 82.8 89.5 90.5 84.0 90.0 96.2 101.8 107.9 108.4 108.4 106.3 105 .0 117.5 122.8 34.4 37.7 40.9 41.9 40.7 45.3 47.6 47.0 51.2 53.3 56.6 61.0 64.7 67.4 70.9 75.5 76.5 77.2 84.5 89.7 91.0 80.6 91.5 97 .9 102.5 107.4 109.1 109.7 106.3 108.4 121.0 36.9 40.9 41.6 41.2 44.0 47 . 1 46.5 51.2 52.5 55 .9 59.9 37.3 40.9 41.6 40.9 44.8 47 .8 46 .7 50.6 52.7 56.5 60.8 64.3 37.5 40.9 42.0 40.7 45.5 47 .4 46.9 51.3 53.3 56.8 38.3 40.8 42.1 40.6 45.6 47 .6 47 .3 51.6 53.8 56 .6 64.5 65.4 65.1 65.9 66.0 1968. . . 1969... 1970... 1971... 1972... 1973... 1974. . . 1975... 1976 . . . 1977. . . 1978. . . 1979... 1980... 1981... 1982... 1983. . . 1984... 70.4 74.6 76.5 77.3 84.1 88.9 90.7 81.9 90.5 97.1 102 .4 107.1 109.6 109.4 105 .5 107 .5 119.9 70.8 75.6 76.8 77.2 84.3 89.8 90.7 80.9 92. 98. 102. 107. 109 . 109.8 107 .0 108.2 121.2 71.4 76.2 76.2 77.2 85.0 90.3 91.7 78.9 91.7 98.6 102.8 107.9 108.4 109.9 106 .3 109.4 121.8 7 1.4 75.8 76.4 78.0 86.0 72.1 76.1 76.2 78.1 85 .6 72.3 76 .2 76.1 78.8 86.3 66 .6 66.5 72.3 77.1 76 .8 79.7 86 .0 66 .6 68.3 73.2 77 .0 75.8 79.7 87.2 66.7 68.7 73.6 76 .6 76.2 80.6 87.4 90.9 80.5 91.7 99.4 104.9 107.9 107 .0 110.3 105.0 110.6 121.9 91.5 81.2 92.1 100.0 105 .3 108.8 104.9 110.7 104.8 112 .4 122.0 91.6 84.0 92 .2 100.2 106 .4 108.2 103.8 110.7 104.7 113.4 122.8 91.5 85.3 92.9 100. 1 106 .3 108.6 104.3 111.8 104.7 114.9 123.7 91.3 86. 92. 101. 106. 108. 105.6 110.8 105.5 116.2 122.6 91.0 87 .6 94.6 100.6 106.9 108.0 107.6 110.0 105.7 118.0 122.3 66.8 69.4 73.7 76.6 76.2 81.5 88.0 92.1 89.9 88.5 95.3 101.0 107 .0 108.9 107.3 108.6 105.5 117.9 122.7 1986... 1987 . . . 1988. . . 128.6 132.7 128.2 132.9 127.3 133.7 128.9 134.6 129.7 135.7 130.2 136.9 130.6 138.5 131.1 138.8 130.3 138.6 131.2 138.1 131.7 139.6 133.4 141.3 128.0 133.1 129.6 135.7 36.7 41.4 42.8 44.0 42.5 37.2 41.6 42.9 44.5 43.9 38.4 42.8 43.3 43.7 45.5 49.6 51.3 54.7 57.6 61.2 65.3 68.4 69.7 74.7 78.1 76 .5 81.2 87.4 91.7 89.4 87.2 93.6 100.7 105.4 102.9 102.2 104.4 101.6 112.0 118.1 120.3 124.4 128.7 49 .3 52.9 54.9 58.4 61.4 66.7 69.6 72.4 76.2 77.3 75.7 83.1 89.9 91.3 86.7 88.7 95.8 101.8 105.6 103. 1 104.1 102.5 101.1 113.9 118.8 121.4 125.5 129.4 75. INDEX OF INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION, CONSUMER GOODS ( 1977=100) 1958... 1959 . . . 1960. . . 196 1 ... 1962. . . 1963... 1964. . . 1965.. . 1966.. . 1967 . . . 1968... 1969. .. 1970... 197 1. . . 1972... 1973. .. 1974. .. 1975... 1976. . . 1977. . . 1978. . . 1979... 1980. . . 1981... 1982... 1983.. . 1984... 1985... 1986... 1987 . . . 1988. . . NOTE: 104 37.5 41.8 43.0 37.6 42.6 43.3 38.4 42.8 43. 1 39. 1 43.0 43.4 44.0 44. 1 43.6 44.0 46 . 1 46 .4 36.3 40.3 42.9 44.1 42.6 49 .6 51 .4 55.0 57.2 61.5 65 .0 68.5 69.2 74.1 78.4 77.5 81 .6 86.3 91.2 49.7 51.7 54.3 57.7 61.4 65.0 68.3 69.9 74.9 78.2 76.2 80.7 87.8 91.1 49.5 50.9 54.7 57.8 60.7 50.0 52.3 54.6 58.2 59.5 49.1 53.2 54.9 58.3 61.7 48.8 53.3 55.1 58.6 63.0 49.9 48.6 53.2 56.3 59.0 50.2 50.4 54.2 57.1 60.5 68.5 70.0 75.2 77.6 75.9 81.4 88.2 92.7 69.9 71.0 75.7 77.7 75.0 82.5 89.3 92.2 69.6 72.5 76.7 77.0 74.5 83.2 89.7 92 . 1 69.4 73.7 76.3 77.1 77.7 83.7 90.7 89.5 86.5 93.3 100.3 105.4 103.2 101.0 105.1 101.7 110.3 118.9 119.3 124.5 128.9 87.1 93.9 101.3 105.3 102 .6 102.1 104.9 102.0 112 .2 117.9 120.7 125.0 129.4 87.9 93.5 100.6 105.5 102.8 103.5 103.3 101.0 113.4 117.6 120.8 123.6 127 .7 87.9 93.9 101.3 105.4 102 .9 103.8 103.3 100.9 113.6 118.1 120.4 124.8 129.0 67.7 69.5 73.1 77.3 76.2 78.9 85.2 90.7 88. 1 80.7 91.4 98.3 101.5 105.3 103.6 104.5 101.4 103.7 117.1 118.6 122.6 126 .2 68.4 69.6 73.8 76.6 77.1 80.0 86.7 91.1 89.2 83.4 92.5 99.3 104.6 104.1 100.9 104.8 101 .4 107.6 117.9 119.0 123.8 126.7 36.4 0.1 2.9 36.5 40.9 42.9 36.5 41.1 43.0 36.7 41.7 42.8 37.0 41.4 42.7 37.1 41.5 42.8 42.9 46 .9 50.3 48.4 52.9 55.8 59.2 63.9 67.4 70.0 72.7 76.7 75.8 78.9 84.9 89.8 88.2 80.8 90.5 98.0 100. 1 105.4 103.2 104.4 100.7 103.0 116.8 117.8 123.6 125.5 2 .6 7 .2 9.7 8.7 53.2 56.4 59.1 64.1 67.6 69.1 73.1 77.3 76.5 78.8 85.2 91.1 87.5 80.9 92.3 98.5 101 .6 105.0 103.6 104.3 101.9 103.7 117.3 118.7 122.9 126.4 42.3 47 .2 49.8 48.7 53.6 56.7 58.8 64.6 68.1 69.3 73.5 77.9 76.4 79.1 85.5 91.2 88.7 80.4 91.5 98.4 102.9 105.5 104. 1 104.7 101.7 104.5 117.2 119 .2 121.4 126.7 41.8 48.0 50.1 49.8 54.1 56.9 60.3 64.5 68.3 70.5 73.4 76.7 76.8 79.7 87.2 91.0 88.5 82.6 91.8 99.0 104.2 103.1 102.5 104.4 101.2 106.2 118.2 118.2 123.8 125.5 42 .5 43.3 50.4 50.4 54.4 57.0 60.7 64.9 68.3 69.1 73.8 76 . 1 77.2 79.8 86.3 91.1 89.2 83.0 92 .9 99.1 104.1 105.0 100.2 105.4 101.3 107.8 117.4 119.5 123.8 127.3 50.1 50.9 54.0 57.4 60.6 65.0 68.6 69.3 74.2 77 .0 77.4 80.4 86.7 91.3 89.9 84.7 92 .9 99.7 105 .4 104.3 99.9 104.7 101.8 108.8 118.2 119.3 123.7 127.2 These series contaii A V E R A G E FOR PERIOD 37.1 41.6 43.0 36.0 39.9 43.0 'isions but are reprinted for the convenience of the user. 39.9 45 .6 47.1 7.4 1.5 7 .7 8.5 7 .6 52.8 56.3 60.3 68.6 76.2 77.0 80.8 84.0 77.6 77.3 86.3 96.3 94.3 82.6 91.1 100.0 108.2 113.9 109.1 111.1 99.9 107 .7 124.2 127.6 128.4 133. 1 AVERAGE FOR PERIOD 35.9 40.0 41.4 41.6 43.4 46 .4 47.2 50.3 52.0 55.6 59.1 1955 . . . 1956 . . . 1957... 1958. . . 1959... 1960. .. 1961 ... 1962... 1963. .. 1964... 1965... 1966. . . 1954. . . 1955... 1956... Annual 88.8 96.4 101.7 105.4 103. 1 104.3 102.7 101.3 113.6 119.1 121.7 125 .0 129.4 89.5 97.2 102.4 106.1 103.2 104.1 101.6 101.1 114.4 119.1 122.0 126 .6 129.8 37.3 1.6 3.1 4.2 3.8 8.0 9.8 0.9 4.3 7.3 0.5 5.3 68.6 70.3 74.5 77.3 76.4 80.8 87.3 91.2 88.4 84.9 93.3 100.0 104.3 103.9 102.7 104.1 101.4 109.3 118.0 119.8 124.0 127.8 (JANUARY 1989) C. Historical Data for Selected Series—Continued Year Jan. 76. 1954... 1955... 1956... 1957... 1958... 1959... 1960... 1961... 1962... 1963... 1964... 1965... 1966... 1967... 1968... 1969... 1970... 1971... 1972... 1973... 1974... 1975... 1976... 1977... 1978... 1979... 1980... 1981... 1982... 1983... 1984... 1985... 1986... 1987... 1988... 33.5 31.8 37 .9 42.7 37.4 36.9 41.5 38.6 41.0 43.3 48.0 53.4 63.8 68.2 69.7 74.0 74.1 68.6 73.7 87.0 93.9 90.7 86.1 96 .2 104.4 122.1 125.2 127.0 118.3 109.2 128.1 138.2 142.1 138.6 Apr. Mar. Feb. June May July Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec. IQ I N D E X OF I N D U S T R I A L P R O D U C T I O N , B U S I N E .> S E Q U I P M E N T ( 1977-100) 43.7 46.8 52.5 61.2 67.7 68.7 72.3 75.4 31.9 34.2 39.9 42.1 34.0 40.0 41.3 38.8 42.5 44.0 49.9 56.3 66.1 68.1 70.6 75.4 71.2 82.4 96.5 98.7 85.3 90.1 102.7 116.8 126.3 126.0 126.3 108.6 120.7 137.8 138.5 139.4 71.5 84.5 96.6 98.0 86.1 93.1 103.2 119.0 125.5 127 .8 123.8 108.9 121.7 138.5 142.2 138.8 148.3 71.9 85.1 94.4 92.2 86.2 94.7 104.4 119.5 124.6 127 .4 122.8 109.9 123.0 137.0 141.6 139.5 149.8 68.6 74.8 88.1 94.4 88.6 87.2 96.4 105.6 123.4 126.1 127.6 119.0 109.5 129.0 138.8 140.9 140.7 67.7 77.8 91.4 97.3 85.2 88.1 98.7 110.5 124.4 123.4 129.2 115.0 112.4 132.6 140.6 138.5 142.7 79.2 87.5 86.0 83.2 76.2 79.0 77.9 78.2 81.8 83.8 86.2 89.6 91.2 85.7 79.7 88.4 86.5 81.4 76.4 78.2 77.5 79.6 81.4 84.3 84.6 89.8 91.6 86.0 80.9 88.3 85.8 79.4 79.1 78.5 75.8 80.8 81.8 84.3 86.8 89.6 90.1 87.2 85.0 75.1 78.4 85.3 87 .6 79.7 74.2 78.8 82.0 85.9 83.1 79.7 75.2 68.2 77.3 80.7 80.2 79.6 82.2 81.8 89.0 86.8 77.5 79.0 83.6 74.3 81.6 81.7 84.0 88.0 90.5 90.0 87.6 87.3 84.2 76.8 78.9 86.0 85.7 75.7 74.8 79.4 82.5 86.5 82.9 79.6 73.8 68.0 77.6 80.4 80.1 80.2 82.6 80.8 84.5 87.5 86.5 74.1 81.4 84.5 73.8 81.2 82.3 84.5 88.9 91.1 88.1 87.0 87.8 81.7 77.0 80.9 86.6 84.1 71.6 76.3 80.0 81.8 85.9 82.5 79.5 72.4 70.1 79.9 80.1 80.0 80.0 79.7 87.4 86.5 84.6 72.4 84.6 81.3 76.4 81.3 83.8 85.5 89.4 91.5 86.4 87.1 87.0 80.2 77.1 82.2 87.0 83.9 70.6 77.0 81.5 84.0 85.0 78.0 79.3 70.8 72.5 80.6 80.2 79.6 80.5 83.4 93.5 88.6 80.1 81.6 78.6 73.7 82.3 81.5 85.2 89.8 89.6 89.9 84.5 94.4 89.4 77.4 81.2 87.6 71.7 83.7 81.4 84.4 90.6 90.9 89.0 79.6 88.3 92.8 88.2 72.6 84.8 86.6 72.0 82.9 81.8 85.7 91.0 91.8 79.8 92.4 90.8 85.4 71.0 89.5 80.9 76.5 81.1 85.0 87 . 1 91.2 92.0 87.3 87.6 78.6 80.0 89.0 91.8 81 .6 76.1 81.7 85.2 88.6 86.2 81.9 78.7 69.0 79.3 81.0 79.5 78.5 82 .9 87.4 86.8 80.1 81.4 89.9 90.8 77.1 76.9 82.2 83.8 89.1 85.9 82.6 76.6 68.5 79.6 81.2 80.2 79.1 83.6 86.2 88.0 83.9 80.6 83.8 90.2 88.5 73.0 78.5 82.7 83.0 88. 1 85.7 82.3 75.2 71.5 81.7 81.1 79.6 78.7 87.2 88.1 82.1 81.2 85.3 90.9 87.6 71.1 80.0 84.6 86.3 87.5 80.1 81.1 72.4 73.6 82.4 80.3 78.3 79.4 32 .1 33.7 40.0 42.6 34.6 38.8 41.4 38.6 42.4 44.0 49.4 55.5 65.3 68.1 70.0 75.5 32.0 34.2 39.8 41.8 33.7 40.1 41.6 38.7 42.4 43.9 50.0 56.3 66.2 68.3 71.0 75.0 31.6 34.6 40.0 42.0 33.7 41.0 41.0 31.5 34.7 40.0 42.2 33.9 41.1 40.5 31.3 34.9 40.5 42.1 34.5 40.7 40.0 31.0 35.2 40.6 41.5 34.8 40.4 39.6 30.9 36.8 41.0 40.4 35.3 40.1 39.3 31.5 37.0 41 .6 39.4 35.9 39.5 39.2 42.8 44.1 50.2 57.1 66.8 68.0 70.9 75.8 43.2 44.7 50.8 58.1 67.9 66.6 70.2 76.5 43.6 45.8 50.8 58.1 68.2 67.8 70.8 76.2 43.6 45.7 51.2 59.2 68.9 67.5 71.6 77.0 43.7 46.5 50.8 60.1 68.7 66.9 72.2 77.2 69.0 74,8 88.4 94.2 88.8 87.9 96.6 105.1 123.6 127.1 128.0 119.8 109.4 128.7 138.9 141.3 141.7 68.3 76.0 88.9 95.0 86.4 87.6 96.5 107.4 124.5 126.0 127.9 118.8 110.0 130.2 139.3 139.2 67.9 77 .6 90.2 96 .0 86.0 87.7 98.3 109.8 122.7 125.3 128.3 116.8 111.5 130.6 140.8 139.6 67.5 77.8 91.3 97.8 85.1 88.5 98.4 109.8 125.2 123.0 128.9 115.0 112.4 132.6 141.8 138.6 67.8 78. 1 92.6 98.0 84.6 88.1 99.5 111.8 125.4 121.8 130.3 113.3 113.4 134.6 139.2 137.2 67.9 77 .7 93.3 98.3 84.2 89.1 100.8 112.6 125.2 123.2 131.1 113.2 114.6 135.9 140.3 139.4 68.9 79.0 93.6 96.7 85.1 89.3 100.7 114.3 124.4 123.9 128.7 110.1 117.7 138.5 140.9 139.1 70.5 80.8 95.6 99.1 85.0 89.4 102.5 115.5 126.4 124.5 127.9 110.3 120.8 137.0 140.5 139.6 80.8 84.1 87.4 87.0 73.8 81.4 84.6 73.5 81.4 82.4 84.7 88.7 90.9 87.9 87.1 87.8 81.8 77.1 80.9 86.9 83.9 71.6 77.0 80.1 81.5 85.9 82.7 79.4 73.0 70.1 80.0 80.0 80.2 85.8 87.0 86.4 72.7 82.5 83.2 73.9 81.9 82.6 84.4 89.3 91.6 87.1 86.9 88.1 81.3 76.7 81.3 86.8 84.0 69.9 76.5 80.4 82.1 86.0 82.1 79.5 72.3 70.9 80.3 80.3 79.4 79.8 79.9 79.4 87.8 85.0 71.3 84.0 82.3 75.4 81.7 83.5 85.6 89.3 91.5 87.2 86.7 87.4 80.7 76.9 82.5 86.8 83.4 70.5 76.5 81.1 83.8 84.4 80.1 79.3 71.2 71.7 80.5 80.2 86.3 84.2 71.9 84.9 81.5 76.4 81.3 84.0 85.6 89.4 91.6 86.2 85.3 84.6 73.9 84.8 80.2 77.3 80.9 83.9 85.4 89.5 91.5 85.7 81.5 84.3 74.3 83.0 79.7 78.1 81.5 83.3 85.9 90.3 91.4 84.9 78.8 87.3 84.9 84.2 75.7 79.5 79.1 79.0 81.4 83.5 86. 1 89.9 91.1 86.1 86.7 80.2 77.2 82.1 86.9 84.2 70.2 77.3 81.5 83.8 85.4 77.7 79.5 70.7 72.6 80.4 80.5 86.9 79.7 77.2 82.1 87.2 84.2 71.1 77 . 1 81.8 84.5 85.1 76.3 79.2 70.4 73.2 80.9 80.0 87.2 79.6 77.1 81.9 87.4 83.5 71.6 77.6 81.8 84.8 84.7 76.1 79.8 70.2 74.6 81.3 79.8 86.9 78.8 76.0 82 .8 87.2 83.3 72.7 77.7 82.4 85.0 84.0 77.1 79.2 69.8 75.7 81.2 80.2 86.5 77.9 77.3 83.3 87.4 83.2 73.4 77.8 82.1 85.3 83.7 78.1 77 .9 69.3 76.9 80.6 80.1 86.2 75.9 78.3 84.4 87 .7 82.2 73.8 77.9 82 .0 85.5 83.8 78.6 76 .7 68.4 77.2 80.7 79.5 79.6 80.0 80.3 80.2 80.4 80.8 81.5 81.5 81.3 82.0 1954... 1955... 1956... 1957... 1958. . . 1959... 1960... 1961... 1962... 1963... 1964... 1965... 1966... 1967... 1968... 1969... 1970... 1971... 1972... 1973... 1974... 1975... 1976... 1977... 1978... 1979... 1980... 1981... 1982... 1983... 1984... 1985... 1986... 1987... 1988... 79.8 80.0 79.0 78.8 93.5 88.4 75.0 82 .4 88.6 72.1 81.9 80.9 85.0 90.9 91.3 88.6 86.4 87.5 84.5 81.1 83.6 89.8 89.2 75.3 77.7 81.8 83.5 87.7 86.3 82.2 74.9 70.8 81.1 81.2 80.5 78.7 92.7 88.6 72.2 84.8 86.7 71.5 83.4 81.8 86.1 90.9 91.5 86.6 86.1 88.2 83.8 80.4 83.6 90.6 88.4 92.1 87.6 70.7 87.2 84.4 72.3 83.4 82.6 86.0 91.2 92.5 84.6 86.1 88.2 83.4 80.3 84.2 90.3 87.9 92. 86. 69. 88. 82. 74. 82. 83.7 86.8 91.7 92.0 85.1 86.5 88.2 82.6 80.6 85.4 90.6 86.9 79.5 93.5 77.9 85.4 74.4 83.4 79.5 79.7 80.2 79.6 92.8 86.6 85.8 77.4 75.4 77.9 81.5 80.7 80. 1 93.8 90.5 84.6 79.5 74.7 76.6 81.0 81.3 81 .8 93.8 89.6 82.5 79.5 73.0 75.7 81.8 80.9 78.8 82.6 82.5 88.3 85.5 82.3 76.0 71.5 81.9 81.1 79.8 78.7 78.9 83.6 83.1 88.4 85.2 82.5 74.7 72.2 82.2 81.0 78.5 78.7 79.4 84.2 86.0 87.5 83.0 80.7 73.4 73.0 82.2 80.5 78.7 79.1 80.1 92.5 90.5 84.9 70.1 89.5 80.7 76.8 80.7 85.7 87.4 91.1 92.3 83.8 87.5 87.7 82.1 81.4 85.3 90.8 88.0 70.5 80.1 84.6 86 .3 87.5 79.6 80.8 72.2 73.8 82.4 80.2 78.3 79.3 88.3 92.7 92.1 83.0 87.3 88.2 81.7 79.4 84.9 92.0 87.3 71.5 80.4 84.8 87.2 87.1 76.3 83.4 71.0 75.8 82.8 79.8 78.1 80.6 88.6 92.3 91.8 85.1 86.3 88.8 82.4 78.7 86.0 91.9 86.6 73.5 81.0 84.2 87.1 86.6 77.3 83.0 70.8 76.8 82.8 79.8 77.9 81.1 89.3 90.1 91.6 84.2 86.4 88.7 81.7 80.0 86.9 91.5 86.7 74.8 81.2 84.8 87.2 86. 1 78.5 81.7 69.9 78.4 82.2 79.9 77.7 81.2 88.8 90.1 91.3 85.0 86.2 88.4 79.3 80.1 88.1 92.0 85.8 75.4 81.1 85.1 88.1 86.4 79.3 80.3 69.2 79.1 81.1 79.5 77.9 82.1 (PERCENT) 31.3 34.9 40.4 41.9 34.4 40.7 40.0 39.5 43.5 45.4 50.9 58.5 68.3 67.3 70.9 76.6 73.1 69.1 79.2 94.2 98.0 84.8 89.3 101.3 114.1 125.3 123 .9 129.2 111.2 117.7 137.1 140.6 139.4 145.8 31.3 37.1 41.6 39.3 35.8 39.9 38.9 40.7 43.6 46.7 52.3 61.3 68.4 68.3 72.5 75.9 69.7 71.5 84.0 95.8 96.3 85.9 92.6 103.4 118.4 125.5 127 . 1 124.3 109.1 121.8 137.8 140.8 139.2 148.9 31.9 34.6 40.1 41.7 35.2 39.5 40.6 39.4 42.8 44.9 50.3 57.6 66.7 68.0 71.0 75.6 72.9 69.3 79.0 92.4 96.5 86.1 89.3 100.0 112.2 124.7 125.1 127 .6 113.6 115.4 134.2 140.2 139.5 144.5 79.1 87.5 84.1 83.9 75.4 80.5 78.9 78.4 81.6 83.5 86.1 89.9 91.2 85.6 86 .7 86.9 78.8 76.8 82.7 87.3 83.3 72.6 77.7 82.1 85.0 84.1 77.1 79.0 69.8 75.7 81.0 80.0 79.6 81.4 80.8 88.6 86.4 79.4 78.2 80.1 75.9 80.7 81.6 84.2 86.5 90.0 90.6 86.9 87.2 85.1 75.9 78.5 85.2 87 .0 79.2 74.3 78.7 82.2 86 .0 83.3 79.3 75.2 68.2 77.4 80.6 79.9 79.8 82.3 80.1 87 .0 86.1 83.6 75.0 81.6 80.1 77 .3 81.4 83.5 85.6 89.5 91.1 86.8 87.0 86.7 79.2 77 .4 82.8 87 .0 82.6 72.2 77 .4 81.4 84.2 84.6 79.2 78.2 70.3 73.9 80.5 80.1 79.7 81.0 AVERAGE FOR PERIOD These series contain no revisions but are reprinted for the convenience of the user. Annual AVERAGE FOR P E R I O D 81.3 83.5 88.2 86.2 75.7 80.2 85.6 74.1 80.2 81.9 84.5 88.6 90.9 89.4 87.1 87.4 82.1 77.2 80.5 86.0 84.5 73.2 75.5 79.5 81.8 85.8 82.8 79.5 71.9 69.4 79.4 80.0 NOTE: IV Q MANUFACTURING 1954... 1955... 1956... 1957... 1958... 1959... 1960... 1961... 1962... 1963... 1964... 1965... 1966... 1967... 1968... 1969... 1970... 1971... 1972... 1973... 1974... 1975... 1976... 1977... 1978... 1979... 1980... 1981... 1982... 1983... 1984... 1985... 1986... 1987... 1988... 80.5 93.5 89.2 85.4 73.8 90.1 79.5 78.0 80.1 85.7 87.2 90.8 91.8 83.3 87.5 88.5 81.5 81.6 85.1 91.3 87.8 71.5 80.4 84.9 86.5 87.6 77.6 81.9 71.6 74.1 82.5 80.2 78.0 79.8 Q AVERAGE FOR PERIOD 33.1 32.2 38.4 43.2 36.3 37.4 41.7 38.4 41.6 43.6 48.0 54.2 64.1 68.2 69.9 74.2 32.6 32.6 38.8 43.4 35.3 37.8 41.9 38.2 42.1 43.6 48.3 55.0 64.8 68.1 70.3 74.7 CAPACITY U T I L I Z A T I O N RATE, (PERCENT) III 31.6 37.6 42.1 38.2 36.2 40.1 38.3 41.1 43.5 46.7 53.5 62.5 68.7 69.4 73.0 75.2 33.1 32.3 38.4 43.6 36.1 37.4 41.8 38.3 41.6 43.9 47.7 54.3 63.6 68.3 69.7 74.0 82. II Q 79.7 93.4 85 .0 85.3 77.1 77.8 78.0 80.7 80.7 83.6 88.7 91.7 91.8 84.1 86.7 88.6 81.9 79.4 85.9 91.8 86.9 73.3 80.9 84.6 87.2 86.6 77.4 82 .7 70.6 77.0 82.6 79.8 77.9 81 .0 83.2 93.9 89 .2 80.0 80.8 79.7 73.7 82.6 81.3 84.8 89.7 90.2 90.1 85.7 87.0 87.6 79.3 80.5 89.0 91.5 81.5 76.1 81.7 84.7 88.6 86 .2 81.3 78.5 68.9 79.3 81.1 79.7 78.5 82 .9 80.6 92.0 89.4 84.7 75.4 82.9 79.8 77.9 81.5 83.8 87.8 91.0 91.4 85.1 86.8 88.1 81.8 80.4 86.0 91.1 86.1 73.4 80.2 84.1 86.3 87 . 1 81.1 81.2 71.8 75.4 82.0 80.2 78.6 80.5 (JANUARY 1989) 105 G. Experimental Data and Analyses III III III III III II Foreign currency per U . S . dollar Year and mo n t h Japan West Germany France United Kingdom (Yen) ( D . mark) (Franc) (Pound) Jan. . . . Feb. . . . 127.69 129.17 127.11 124.90 124.79 127.47 133.02 133.77 134.32 128.68 123.20 123.61 Mar A p r . . .. May June. . . July. . . Aug. . .. Sept.. . Oct Nov Dec \ 5.5808 5.7323 5.6893 5.6704 5.7348 5.9310 6.2241 6.3919 6.3515 6.1975 5.9746 5.9994 1.6537 1.6965 1.6770 1.6710 1.6935 1.7579 1.8466 1.8880 1.8668 1.8165 1.7491 1.7563 0.5553 0.5688 0.5456 0.5324 0.5349 0.5628 0.5865 0.5894 0.5938 0.5751 0.5529 0.5477 2 127.08 2 2 1.8320 2 6.2428 Jap an (y X /\r ^ -\ ^W - xT West Germany (d. mark) ^ V f1K/ s ^*v \ D ' ^ A I y- ->*x / (Lira) Canada (Dollar) \ 'X *J y /\ 1.2855 1.2682 1.2492 1.2353 1.2373 1.2176 1.2075 1.2237 1.2267 1.2055 1.2186 1.1962 1216.88 1249.62 1240.67 1240.99 1258.81 1305.56 1367.26 1397.93 1393.15 1353.36 1300.22 1295.61 Feb.... Mar Apr May June. . . July.. . Aug Sept. .. Oct Nov Dec 89.29 91.09 89.73 88.95 89.74 92.58 96.53 98.29 97.91 95.10 91.91 91.88 1989 2 1342.87 2 2 1.1924 94.98 Feb Mar f\ w\ g\f \ f ^^J Av y A /\ v' r ^ III 700). Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. 106 120 2.8 ^\ \ - 2.0 — 1.8 _,. 10 9 8 — 7 — 8 y\ D — 0.7 — 0.6 ~ — _ 0.5 2000 1800 1600 - 1400 1200 ^Sr -^v*> A' Can ada ( dolla -) * /~- < ~ i, V— *s^s ~^s. yv /^ ^ •^v > III Exchange value of the U.S. dollar ft (index: March 1973 = 100) ^ N/ /^ /\ ' "N, •^^ /v / III III III III | 5 0.9 O. n o 1000 s s~*~ D 1 1 III — /^•^ *>»!. ^^v- ^^ \ \ 800 1.6 1.4 -I — 1.2 — — 1.0 160 — 140 - 120 \ V. ^** ^D III III ^ III in III 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 1 This index is the weighted-average exchange value of the U . S . dollar against the currencies of the other G-10 countries plus Switzerland. Weights are the 1972-76 global trade of each of the 10 countries. For a description of this index, see the August 1978 FEDERAL RESERVE BULLETIN (p. 2 Average for January 3 through 27. <—- __ — — ./ V v/* Ital V (lir n O ^ / / f*S ^ /\ r V Apr. . . . May June. . . July. . . Aug. . . . Sept. . . Oct Nov. . . . Dec 160 D v"\ J - N /\ A fJ r\r (March 1973=100) ^\\ r Uni tedKi ngdorn (po und) Exchange value of the U . S . dollar1 1988 Jan. . . . ~~ 2.4 \ / Italy 240 200 \ \\ ^•'X tj A > \ ranee (fra Foreign currency per U . S . d o l l a r Jan. . . . 280 VS 0.5632 Feb Mar Apr May.... June. . . July... Aug Sept... Oct.... Nov Dec . Ratio scale — 320 V 1989 Year and month in Foregn currency per U.S. dollar— 1988 Jan. . . . III III III MiI N I III III 100 ~*^ 80 G. Experimental Data and Analyses—Continued Net Contributions of Individual Components to the Leading, Roughly Coincident, and Lagging Composite Indexes Net contribution to index Basic data Series title (and unit of measure) LEADING INDICATORS 1. Average weekly hours of production or nonsupervisory workers, manufacturing (hours). . 5. Average weekly initial claims for unemployment insurance, State programs 1 (thous ) 8. Mfrs. 1 new orders in 1982 dollars, consumer goods and materials industries (bil. dol.). • 32. Vendor performance, percent of companies receiving slower deliveries (percent) 20. Contracts and orders for plant and equipment in 1982 dollars (bil. dol.) 29. New private housing units authorized by local building permits (index: 1967=100). . . 36. Change in inventories on hand and on order in 1982 dol., smoothed 2 (ann. rate, bil. dol.) . 99. Change in sensitive materials prices, smoothed 2 (percent) 19. Stock prices, 500 common stocks (index: 1941-43=10) 106. Money supply M2 in 1982 dollars (bil. d o l . ) 111. Change in business and consumer credit outstanding (ann. rate, percent) 910. Composite index of leading indicators 3 (index: 1967=100) Sept. 1988 . • 41.2 Nov. 1988 Oct. 1988 41.2 Sept. to Oct. 1988 Dec. 1988 41.2 Oct. Nov. to to Nov. 1988 Dec. 1988 p41.0 0.00 0.00 -0.20 -0.17 283 282 291 305 0.01 -0.09 87.85 87.88 r89.52 P92.97 0.00 0.10 66 60 56 56 -0.26 -0.18 0.00 r43.61 r43.35 r44.40 P46.79 -0.01 0.06 0.15 124.9 0.27 0.00 0. 13 NA 0.10 -0.03 NA -0.15 -0.03 0. 14 -0.16 0.17 0.25 . 111.2 120.9 120.9 . r!8.75 r22.59 p21 .41 -0.07 -0.14 267.97 277.40 271 .02 276.51 0.24 r2,452.9 2,445.7 r2/451.8 p2,453.9 -0.10 0.09 0.04 NA 0.30 -0.09 NA ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS 41. Employees on nonagricultural payrolls (thous.) 51. Personal income less transfer payments in 1982 dollars (ann. rate, bil. dol.) 47. Industrial production (index: 1977=100) 57. Manufacturing and trade sales in 1982 dollars (mil. dol.) 920. Composite index of roughly coincident indicators 3 (index: 1967=100) . . . LAGGING INDICATORS 91. Average duration of unemployment1 (weeks) 77. Ratio, manufacturing and trade inventories to sales in 1982 dollars (ratio) 62. Labor cost per unit of output, manufacturing-actual data as a percent of trend (percent) . . 109. Average prime rate charged by banks (percent) 101. Commercial and industrial loans outstanding in 1982 dollars (mil. dol.) 95. Ratio, consumer installment credit outstanding to personal income (percent). . . . 930. Composite index of lagging indicators 3 (index: 1967=100) 0.28 r2.7 r7.9 p6.4 0.13 r!92.7 r!93.7 r!93.4 p!94.6 0.52 -0.15 106,737 r!06,973 r!07,377 p!07,656 0.18 0.31 0.28 2,802.1 r2,835.0 r2,822.7 p2,844.3 0.58 -0.22 0.49 138.6 139.3 r!39.8 p!40.2 0.14 0.10 0. 10 451,425 r456x315 p457,227 NA 0.24 0.04 NA 178.9 rl80.7 rl80.8 p!82.1 1 .01 0.06 0.72 r!3.5 r!3.4 r!2.6 0.05 0.44 -0. 17 1.54 rl .53 pi .53 NA -0.13 0.00 NA rlOO.9 rlOO.3 plOO.1 0.44 -0.22 -0. 11 10.00 10.00 10.05 10.50 0.00 0.04 0.46 r362,405 r364,086 365,579 p371,508 0.12 0.11 0.62 15.88 r!5.73 p!5.87 NA -0.58 0.54 NA r!48.0 r!47.9 r!49.3 p!50.5 -0.07 0.95 0.80 99.7 12.8 0.62 NOTE: The net contribution of an individual component is that component's share in the composite movement of the group. It is computed by dividing the standardized and weighted change for the component by the sum of the weights for the available components and dividing that result by the index standardization factor. See the February 1983 BUSINESS CONDITIONS DIGEST (pp. 108-109) or the 1984 HANDBOOK OF CYCLICAL INDICATORS (pp. 67-68) for the weights and standardization factors. NA, not available, p, preliminary, r, revised, e, estimated. Hhis series is inverted in computing the composite index; i.e., a decrease in this series is considered an upward movement. 2 This series is a weighted 4-term moving average (with weights 1,2,2,1) placed on the terminal month of the span. 3 Figures in the net contribution columns are percent changes in the index. The percent change is equal (except for rounding differences) to the sum of the individual components' contributions plus the trend adjustment factor. The trend adjustment factor for the leading index is 0.139; for the coincident index, -0.175; for the lagging index, 0.018. 107 ALPHABETICAL INDEX—SERIES FINDING GUIDE Series title (See complete titles in "Titles and Sources of Series," following this index) Agricultural products, exports Anticipations and intentions Consumer sentiment, index Employees, manufacturing and trade, Dl Inventories, manufacturing and trade, Dl New orders, manufacturing, Dl Plant and equipment expenditures, constant dollars.. Plant and equipment expenditures, current dollars.... Plant and equipment expenditures, Dl Prices, manufacturing, Dl Prices, retail trade, Dl Prices, wholesale trade, Dl Profits, manufacturing and trade, Dl Sales, manufacturing and trade, Dl Automobiles Imports of automobiles and parts Personal consumption expenditures Current issue Series (Page numbers) number Charts Tables 604 Historical data (issue date) Series description (*) 10/87 58 974 975 971 100 61 970 976 978 977 972 973 22 38 38 38 24 24 38 38 38 38 38 38 65 76 76 76 67 67 76 76 76 76 76 76 12/88 8/87 8/87 8/87 10/88 10/88 10/88 8/87 8/87 8/87 8/87 8/87 '23' 616 55 56 22 92 65 10/87 8/88 56 39 20 37 37 37 23 37 37 37 37 37 B Balance of payments—See International transactions. Bank loans—See Business Loans. Bank rates—See Interest rates. Bank reserves Free reserves Member bank borrowings from the Federal Reserve.. Bonds—See Interest rates. Borrowing—See Credit. Budget—See Government. Building—See Construction. Building permits, new private housing Business equipment, industrial production Business expenditures—See Investment, capital. Business failures, current liabilities Business formation, index Business incorporations Business inventories—See Inventories. Business loans Loans outstanding, constant dollars Loans outstanding, current dollars Loans outstanding, net change Business saving Canada—See International comparisons. Capacity utilization Manufacturing Materials Capital appropriations, manufacturing Backlog Newly approved Newly approved, Dl Capital equipment, producer price index Capital investment—See Investment, capital. Capital investment commitments, Cl Cash flow, corporate, constant dollars Cash flow, corporate, current dollars Civilian labor force—See also Employment. Employment Employment as percent of population Labor force Unemployed Coincident indicators, four Composite index Composite index, rate of change Diffusion index Ratio to lagging indicators, composite index Commercial and industrial buildings, contracts awarded.. Commercial and industrial loans Loans outstanding, constant dollars Loans outstanding, current dollars Loans outstanding, net change Compensation—See also Income. Compensation, average hourly, nonfarm business sector Compensation of employees Compensation of employees, percent of national income Compensation, real average hourly, nonfarm business sector Earnings, average hourly, private nonfarm economy Earnings, real average hourly, private nonfarm economy Wage and benefit decisions, first year Wage and benefit decisions, life of contract Wages and salaries in mining, manufacturing, and construction Composite indexes Coincident indicators Four coinciders, index Four coinciders, rate of change Ratio to lagging indicator index Lagging indicators Six laggers, index Six laggers, rate of change Leading indicators Capital investment commitments Eleven leaders, index Eleven leaders, rate of change Inventory investment and purchasing Money and financial flows Profitability See notes at end of index. 108 93 94 33 33 72 72 11/88 11/88 35 35 29 76 13,25 24 67 67 5/88 12/87 24 12 14 12 13 33 23 23 72 65 65 6/87 1/88 1/88 34 21 21 101 72 112 295 15,35 35 32 46 73 73 71 82 7/88 7/88 7/88 11/88 32 32 32 26 82 84 20 20 64 64 11/87 11/87 14 14 97 11 965 333 24 24 37 48 66 66 75 86 5/88 5/88 5/88 3/88 22 22 22 51 914 35 34 1/86 29 29 60 70 70 5 26 26 442 90 441 37 51 17 51 18,51 62 89 62,89 2/88 2/88 2/88 2/88 9 9 9 9 920 920c 951 940 9 10 39 36 11 23 101 72 112 '74' 60 66 5/88 5/88 12/87 11/87 5/88 5 5 21 15,35 35 32 73 73 71 7/88 7/88 7/88 32 32 32 345 280 49 45 87 82 11/88 11/88 46 46 64 30,47 70,83 10/88 46 11/88 46 60 346 49 340 49 87 341 348 349 49 50 50 87 5 8/88 7/87 7/87 9/88 920 920c 940 10 39 11 930 930c 10 39 914 910 910c 915 917 916 10 39 11 11 11 60 "60" 5/88 5/88 11/87 60 10/87 10/87 60 60 1/86 6/88 6/88 1/88 1/88 1/88 'so' 60 60 5 53 53 Series title (See complete titles in "Titles and Sources of Series," following this index) Construction Building permits, new private housing Contracts awarded, commercial and industrial buildings Expenditures, plus machinery and equipment sales... Gross private fixed investment Nonresidential, constant dollars Nonresidential, percent of GNP Nonresidential structures, constant dollars Residential, constant dollars Residential, percent of GNP Housing starts Consumer finished goods, producer price index Consumer goods and materials, new orders Consumer goods, industrial production Consumer installment credit Credit outstanding Net change Ratio to personal income Consumer installment loans, delinquency rate Consumer prices—See also International comparisons. All items Food Consumer sentiment, index Consumption expenditures—See Personal consumption expenditures. Contract awards, Defense Department Contracts and orders, plant and equipment, constant dollars Contracts and orders, plant and equipment, current dollars Corporate bond yields Corporate profits—See Profits. Costs—See Labor costs and Price indexes. Credit Borrowing, total private Business loans Loans outstanding, constant dollars Loans outstanding, current dollars Loans outstanding, net change Consumer installment credit Credit outstanding Net change Ratio to personal income Consumer installment loans, delinquency rate Credit outstanding, percent change Mortgage debt, net change Crude and intermediate materials, change in producer prices Crude materials, producer price index Debt-See Credit. Defense and space equipment, industrial production Defense Department Gross obligations incurred Gross unpaid obligations Net outlays Personnel, civilian Personnel, military Prime contract awards Defense products Inventories, manufacturers' New orders, manufacturers' Shipments, manufacturers' Unfilled orders, manufacturers' Defense products industries, employment Defense purchases, goods and services Defense purchases, percent of GNP Current issue (page numbers) number Charts Tables Series Historical data (issue date) Series description (*) 29 13,25 9 69 23 24 66 67 5/88 9/88 21 17 248 87 89 249 28 334 25 47 25 25 47 25 48 12,21 22 67 83 67 67 83 67 86 64 65 8/88 10/88 8/88 8/88 10/88 5/88 3/88 9/88 12/87 40 40 40 40 40 24 51 15 12 66 113 95 39 35 32 15,35 33 73 72 73 72 5/88 5/88 11/88 2/88 33 33 33 34 320 322 58 49 49 22 84,95 84 65 3/88 3/88 12/88 49 49 20 525 53 90 12/88 55 20 12,23 66 9/88 21 10 116 23 34 66 73 9/88 5/88 21 35 5/88 11/88 110 32 101 72 112 15,35 35 32 73 73 71 7/88 7/88 7/88 32 32 32 66 113 95 39 111 33 35 32 15,35 33 13,32 32 73 72 73 72 72 71 5/88 5/88 11/88 2/88 7/88 9/86 33 33 33 34 31 31 69 85 4/88 3/88 51 50 98 331 12/87 557 517 543 580 578 577 525 53 53 54 55 55 53 90 90 91 91 91 90 12/88 10/87 10/87 12/88 12/88 12/88 55 55 56 56 56 55 559 548 588 561 570 564 565 54 53 54 54 55 55 55 91 90 91 91 91 91 91 9/88 9/88 8/88 8/88 8/88 17 15 17 15 5 43 43 39 32 33 12,21 72 64 2/88 1/88 34 17 965 951 974 963 966 37 36 38 36 37 5/88 12/87 8/87 7/88 12/87 22 5 37 5 12 962 975 952 950 964 '36* 38 36 36 37 971 970 960 972 967 '38' 38 37 38 37 973 976 978 977 968 961 38 38 38 38 37 36 75 74 76 74 75 78 74 76 74 74 75 77 76 76 75 76 75 79 76 76 76 76 75 74 77 Deficit—See Government. Deflators—See Price indexes. Delinquency rate, consumer installment loans. Deliveries, vendor performance Diffusion indexes Capital appropriations, manufacturing Coincident indicators Employees, manufacturing and trade Employees on private nonagricultural payrolls. Industrial production Industrial production, components Initial claims, State unemployment insurance, Inventories, manufacturing and trade. Lagging indicators Leading indicators New orders, durable goods industries. New orders, durable goods industries, components. New orders, manufacturing Plant and equipment expenditures. Profits, manufacturing Profits, manufacturing and trade Raw industrials, spot market prices Raw industrials, spot market prices, components Sales, manufacturing and trade Selling prices, manufacturing. Selling prices, retail trade.. Selling prices, wholesale trade Stock prices, 500 common stocks. Workweek, manufacturing.. Workweek, manufacturing, components Disposable personal income—See income. 2/88 8/87 12/87 6/87 37 5 5 15 8/87 10/88 5/88 8/87 1/88 37 23 37 37 25 8/87 8/87 8/87 8/87 12/88 7/88 '37' 37 37 37 25 5 ALPHABETICAL INDEX—SERIES FINDING GUIDE—Continued Series title (See complete titles in "Titles and Sources of Series," following this index) E Earnings— See Compensation. Employment and unemployment Civilian labor force Defense Department personnel, civilian Defense Department personnel military Employee hours in nonagncultural establishments Rate of change Total Employees in goods-producing industries Employees, manufacturing and trade, Dl Employees on nonagncultural payrolls Employees on private nonagricultural payrolls, Dl Employment, civilian Employment, defense products industries Employment, ratio to population Help-wanted advertising in newspapers Help-wanted advertising, ratio to unemployment Initial claims, State unemployment insurance Initial claims, State unemployment insurance, Dl Overtime hours, manufacturing Participation rate, both sexes 16-19 years of age Participation rate, females 20 years and over Participation rate, males 20 years and over Part-time workers for economic reasons Persons engaged in nonagricultural activities Unemployed, both sexes 16-19 years of age Unemployed, females 20 years and over Unemployed, full-time workers Unemployed, males 20 years and over Unemployment, average duration Unemployment, civilian Unemployment rate, civilian Unemployment rate, 15 weeks and over Unemployment rate, insured Workweek manufacturing Workweek, manufacturing, components Workweek manufacturing Dl Equipment— See Investment, capital. Exports— See International transactions. Current issue Series (page numbers) number Charts Tables 441 578 577 51 55 55 48c 48 40 974 41 963 442 570 90 46 60 5 962 21 453 452 451 448 42 446 445 447 444 91 37 43 44 45 1 39 17 17 38 14,17 36 51 55 17 16 16 12,16 36 16 51 51 51 51 17 51 51 51 51 15,18 18,51 18 18 18 12,16 961 '36' 89 91 91 61 62 76 62 74 89 91 62 61 61 61 74 61 89 89 89 89 62 89 89 89 89 62 62,89 62 62 62 61 77 74 Historical data (issue date) 2/88 12/88 12/88 7/88 7/88 7/88 8/87 7/88 7/88 2/88 8/88 2/88 12/87 2/88 2/88 2/88 7/88 2/88 2/88 2/88 2/88 2/88 2/88 2/88 2/88 2/88 2/88 2/88 2/88 2/88 5/88 7/88 7/88 Series description (*) 9 56 56 "5" 5 37 5 5 9 5 9 9 9 8 8 5 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 8 5 "5" F Federal funds rate Federal Government— See Government. Federal Reserve member bank borrowings from Final sales in constant dollars Financial flows, Cl Fixed investment— See Investment, capital. Fixed-weighted price index, gross domestic business product Food— See Consumer prices. Foreign trade— See International transactions. France— See International comparisons. Free reserves 119 34 72 6/88 35 94 213 917 33 40 11 72 80 60 11/88 10/88 1/88 35 38 5 311 48 84 8/88 49 93 33 72 11/88 35 G Goods output in constant dollars Government budget Federal expenditures Federal receipts Federal surplus or deficit State and local expenditures . State and local receipts . State and local surplus or deficit Surplus or deficit, total . Government purchases of goods and services Federal, constant dollars Federal, current dollars . Federal, percent of GNP. National defense National defense, percent of GNP State and local, constant dollars State and local, current dollars State and local, percent of GNP Total, constant dollars .... Total, current dollars Gross domestic business product, fixed -weighted price index Gross domestic product, labor cost per unit Gross national product GNP constant dollars GNP, constant dollars, differences GNP, constant dollars, percent changes GNP, current dollars GNP, current dollars, differences . GNP, current dollars, percent changes GNP, ratio to money supply Ml ... Goods output in constant dollars Implicit price deflator Per capita GNP, constant dollars Gross private domestic investment— See Investment, capital. 49 20 63 8/88 14 502 501 500 512 511 510 298 52 52 52 52 52 52 46 90 90 90 90 90 90 83 8/88 8/88 8/88 8/88 8/88 8/88 53 53 53 53 53 53 48 263 262 265 564 565 267 266 268 261 260 43 43 47 55 55 43 43 47 43 43 81 81 83 91 91 81 81 83 81 81 11/88 11/88 11/88 11/88 11/88 11/88 11/88 11/88 43 43 43 43 43 43 43 43 43 43 311 68 48 30 84 70 8/88 8/88 49 28 50 50b 50c 200 200b 200c 107 49 310 217 19,40 10/88 10/88 10/88 10/88 10/88 10/88 3l' 20 48 40 63,80 80 80 80 80 80 71 63 84 80 38 38 38 38 38 38 30 14 38 38 46 60 16 16 61 61 12/87 2/88 9 9 1 12,16 5 36 16 61 77 74 61 7/88 961 21 7/88 7/88 5 5 39' 40 11/88 8/88 8/88 8/88 8/88 8/88 10/88 H Help-wanted advertising in newspapers Help-wanted advertising ratio to unemployment Hours, manufacturing Average weekly hours Average weekly hours components Average weekly hours, Dl Average weekly overtime Series title (See complete titles in "Titles and Sources of Series," following this index) Housing Housing starts Housing units authorized by local building permits Residential GPDI, constant dollars Residential GPDI, percent of GNP Series number Current issue (page numbers) Charts Tables 28 29 89 249 25 13,25 25 47 67 67 67 83 10/88 24 24 40 40 310 48 84 8/88 38 345 280 49 45 87 82 11/88 11/88 46 46 Historical data (issue date) 5/88 5/88 8/88 Series description (*) 1 Implicit price deflator, GNP Imports— See International transactions. Income Compensation, average hourly, nonfarm business sector Compensation of employees Compensation of employees, percent of national income Compensation, real average hourly, nonfarm business sector Consumer installment credit, ratio to personal income Corporate profits with IVA and CCAdj Corporate profits with IVA and CCAdj, percent of national income Disposable personal income, constant dollars Disposable personal income, current dollars Disposable personal income, per capita, constant dollars Earnings, average hourly, private nonfarm economy Earnings, real average hourly, private nonfarm economy Income on foreign investment in the United States Income on U.S. investment abroad Interest, net Interest net percent of national income National income Personal income, constant dollars Personal income, current dollars Personal income less transfer payments, constant dollars Rate of change Total Personal income, ratio to money supply M2 Proprietors' income with IVA and CCAdj Proprietors' income with IVA and CCAdj, percent of national income Rental income of persons with CCAdj Rental income of persons with CCAdj, percent of national income Wage and benefit decisions, first year Wage and benefit decisions, life of contract Wages and salaries in mining, manufacturing, and construction Incorporations, new businesses Industrial commodities, producer price index Industrial production— See also International comparisons. Business equipment Consumer goods Defense and space equipment Durable manufactures Nondurable manufactures Total Total, components. Total, Dl Total, rate of change. Industrials, raw, spot market prices Components Diffusion index Spot market index Installment credit— See Credit. Insured unemployment Average weekly initial claims Average weekly initial claims, Dl Average weekly insured unemployment rate Interest, net Interest, net, percent of national income. Interest rates Bank rates on short-term business loans Corporate bond yields Federal funds rate .... Mortgage yields, secondary market Municipal bond yields Prime rate charged by banks Treasury bill rate Treasury bond yields. Intermediate materials, producer price index International comparisons Consumer prices Canada France Italy Japan United Kingdom United States. West Germany Industrial production Canada , France Italy Japan OECD, European countries United Kingdom United States. West Germany 64 30,47 70,83 10/88 46 346 95 286 49 15,35 45 88 73 82 11/88 11/88 11/88 46 33 26 287 225 224 47 40 40 83 80 80 11/88 10/88 10/88 26 11 11 227 40 80 10/88 11 340 49 87 8/88 5 341 652 651 288 289 220 52 223 49 57 57 45 47 45 19 40 87 93 93 82 83 82 63 63 8/88 8/88 8/88 5 57 57 47 47 46 11 11 51c 51 108 282 39 14,19 31 45 283 284 11/88 11/88 10/88 9/88 9/88 '63' 9/88 9/88 71 82 11/88 11/88 11 30 47 47 45 83 82 11/88 11/88 47 47 285 348 349 47 50 50 83 88 88 11/88 7/87 7/87 47 53 53 53 13 335 19 23 48 63 65 85 9/88 1/88 3/88 11 21 51 76 75 557 73 74 47 24 22 54 20 20 14,20,58 12/87 12/87 12/87 12/87 12/87 12/87 12 12 13 12 12 12 966 47c 37 39 67 65 91 63 63 63,94 78 75 12/87 12/87 "\2 967 23 37' 28 79 75 69 1/88 1/88 25 25 5 962 45 288 289 12,16 36 18 45 47 61 74 62 82 83 2/88 2/88 5/88 11/88 11/88 8 8 8 47 47 67 116 119 118 117 109 114 115 332 35 34 34 34 34 35 34 34 48 73 73 72 73 73 73 72 73 86 1/88 5/88 6/88 6/88 5/88 2/88 5/88 5/88 3/88 35 35 35 35 35 35 35 35 50 733 736 737 738 732 320 735 59 59 59 59 59 49 59 96 95 96 95 95 84,95 95 4/88 4/88 4/88 4/88 4/88 3/88 4/88 60 61 61 61 60 49 61 723 726 727 728 721 722 47 725 58 58 58 58 58 58 14,20,58 58 94 94 94 94 94 94 63,94 94 11/88 59 59 59 59 58 58 12 59 6/88 6/88 6/88 6/88 6/88 12/87 6/88 See notes at end of index. 109 ALPHABETICAL INDEX—SERIES FINDING GUIDE—Continued Series title (See complete titles in "Titles and Sources of Series," following this index) International comparisons— Continued Stock prices Canada France Italy Japan United Kingdom United States West Germany International transactions Balance on goods and services Balance on merchandise trade Exports, excluding military aid Exports, merchandise, adjusted, excluding military Exports of domestic agricultural products Exports of goods and services, constant dollars Exports of goods and services, current dollars Exports of goods and services, excluding military Exports of nonelectrical machinery Imports, general Imports, merchandise, adjusted, excluding military Imports of automobiles and parts Imports of goods and services Imports of goods and services, constant dollars Imports of goods and services, current dollars Imports of petroleum and petroleum products Income on foreign investment in the United States Income on U.S. investment abroad Net exports of goods and services, constant dollars Net exports of goods and services, current dollars Net exports of goods and services, percent of GNP. Inventories Business inventories, change, constant dollars Business inventories, change, current dollars Business inventories, change, percent of GNP Defense products, manufacturers' Finished goods, manufacturers' Inventories to sales ratio, manufacturing and trade Inventory investment and purchasing, Cl Manufacturing and trade Manufacturing and trade, change. Manufacturing and trade, constant dollars. Manufacturing and trade, Dl... Manufacturing and trade, on hand and on order, change Materials and supplies on hand and on order, manufacturers' Materials and supplies on hand and on order, manufacturers' change Investment, capital Capital appropriations, manufacturing, backlog Capital appropriations, manufacturing, new Capital appropriations, manufacturing, new, Dl Capital investment commitments, Cl Construction contracts, commercial and industrial Construction expenditures, business, plus machinery and equipment sales Gross private domestic investment Business inventories, change— See Inventories. Fixed investment, constant dollars Fixed investment, current dollars Nonresidential, constant dollars Nonresidential, percent of GNP Nonresidential producers' durable equipment, constant dollars . Nonresidential structures, constant dollars Residential, constant dollars Residential, percent of GNP. Total, constant dollars Total, current dollars New orders, nondefense capital goods, constant dollars New orders, nondefense capital goods, current dollars Plant and equipment Contracts and orders, constant dollars Contracts and orders, current dollars Expenditures by business, constant dollars Expenditures by business, current dollars Expenditures by business Dl Income on foreign investment in the United States Income on U.S. investment abroad Italy— See International comparisons. Series number Current issue (page numbers) Charts Tables Historical data (issue date) Series description (*) 743 746 747 748 742 19 745 59 59 59 59 59 59 59 96 96 96 96 96 96 96 12/88 12/88 12/88 12/88 12/88 12/88 12/88 63 63 63 63 63 25 63 667 622 602 618 604 256 252 668 606 612 620 616 669 257 253 614 652 651 57 57 56 57 56 44 44 57 56 56 57 56 57 44 44 56 57 57 93 93 92 93 92 82 82 93 92 92 93 92 93 82 82 92 93 93 8/88 8/88 8/88 8/88 57 57 56 57 56 44 44 57 56 56 57 56 57 44 44 56 57 57 255 44 82 10/88 44 250 251 44 47 82 83 10/88 10/88 44 44 30 245 247 559 65 77 915 71 31 70 975 26,42 42 47 54 27 15,27 11 27 26 27 38 68,81 81 83 91 68 68 60 68 68 68 76 10/88 10/88 10/88 8/87 40 40 40 17 17 17 5 17 17 17 37 36 13,26 68 12/88 17 78 27 68 12/88 17 38 26 68 12/88 17 97 11 965 914 9 24 24 37 '23' 66 66 75 60 66 5/88 5/88 5/88 1/86 5/88 22 22 22 5 21 69 24 67 9/88 17 243 242 86 248 42 42 25 47 81 81 67 83 10/88 10/88 40 40 40 40 88 87 89 249 241 240 25 25 25 47 42 42 67 67 67 83 81 81 8/88 8/88 8/88 10/88 10/88 10/88 40 40 40 40 40 40 27 23 66 9/88 15 24 23 66 9/88 15 10/87 10/88 10/88 8/88 10/87 8/88 8/88 10/87 8/88 11/88 10/88 10/87 8/88 8/88 9/88 12/88 12/88 1/88 12/88 12/88 12/88 8/88 10/88 20 10 100 61 970 12,23 23 24 24 38 66 66 67 67 76 9/88 9/88 21 21 10/88 10/88 10/88 23 23 652 651 57 57 93 93 8/88 8/88 57 57 J Japan— See International comparisons. L Labor cost per unit of gross domestic product Labor cost per unit of output, business sector Labor cost per unit of output, manufacturing Actual data Actual data as percent of trend Labor cost, price per unit of, nonfarm business Labor force— See Employment. Lagging indicators, six Composite index Composite index, rate of change Diffusion index See notes at end of index. 110 68 63 30 30 70 70 10/88 62 62 26 30 15 29 70 70 70 10/88 930 930c 952 10 39 36 60 74 8/88 9/88 9/88 10/87 10/87 12/87 28 28 28 28 28 5 5 Series title (See complete titles in "Titles and Sources of Series," following this index) Leading indicators, eleven Composite index Composite index rate of change Diffusion index Liabilities of business failures Liquid assets, change in total oans— c> e ueuit. Series number Current issue (page numbers) Charts Tables Historical data (issue date) Series description (*) 5 950 14 104 10 39 36 33 31 '74' 72 71 6/88 6/88 6/87 6/87 5/88 78 27 68 12/88 17 38 84 8 26 20 12,21 68 64 64 12/88 11/87 17 14 15 917 11 60 1/88 5 104 105 85 106 102 107 108 33 118 117 31 31 31 13,31 31 31 31 32 34 34 71 71 71 71 71 71 71 71 73 73 5/88 5/88 5/88 5/88 5/88 8/88 9/86 6/88 5/88 29 29 29 30 29 30 30 31 35 35 27 24 8 23 23 12,21 66 66 64 9/88 9/88 9/88 15 15 15 20 12,23 66 9/88 21 10 548 7 6 23 53 21 21 9/88 9/88 9/88 9/88 21 15 15 15 964 971 37 38 66 90 64 64 77 75 76 9/88 8/87 15 37 88 87 86 248 25 25 25 47 67 67 67 83 8/88 8/88 8/88 40 40 40 40 517 543 721 53 53 58 90 90 94 12/88 10/87 6/88 55 55 58 580 54 91 10/87 56 49 20 63 8/88 14 62 62 370 358 82 84 21 30 15 50 50 20 20 16 70 70 88 88 64 64 61 9 '88 7/88 28 28 52 52 14 14 5 453 452 451 51 51 51 89 89 89 2/88 2/88 2/88 9 9 9 55 233 232 238 236 239 237 231 230 235 22 41 41 41 41 41 41 41 41 47 65 80 80 81 81 81 81 80 80 83 8/88 10/88 10/88 10/88 10/88 10/88 10/88 10/88 10/88 10/88 39 39 39 39 39 39 39 39 39 39 292 293 614 46 46 56 82 83 92 11/88 11/88 10/87 48 48 56 910 910c 60 "5" 34 29 M Materials and supplies on hand and on order, manufacturers' inventories Materials and supplies on hand and on order, manufacturers' inventories, change Materials, capacity utilization rate Materials, new orders for consumer goods and Materials prices— See Price indexes. Merchandise trade— See International transactions. Military— See Defense. Money and financial flows, Cl Money supply Liquid assets, change in total Money supply Ml, constant dollars Money supply Ml, percent changes Money supply M2, constant dollars Money supply M2, percent changes Ratio, GNP to money supply Ml Ratio, personal income to money supply M2 Mortgage debt, net change Mortgage yields, secondary market Municipal bond yields 9/88 11/88 N National defense— See Defense. National Government— See Government. National income— See Income. New orders, manufacturers' Capital goods industries, nondefense, constant dollars Capital goods industries, nondefense, current dollars Consumer goods and materials, constant dollars Contracts and orders, plant and equipment, constant dollars Contracts and orders, plant and equipment, current dollars Defense products Durable goods industries, constant dollars. Durable goods industries, current dollars. Components ... Diffusion index New orders, manufacturing, Dl Nonresidential fixed investment Producers' durable equipment, constant dollars Structures, constant dollars Total, constant dollars Total, percent of GNP 10/88 o Obligations incurred, Defense Department Obligations unpaid, Defense Department OECD, European countries, industrial production Orders— See New orders and Unfilled orders. Outlays, Defense Department Output— See also Gross national product and Industrial production. Goods output, constant dollars Labor cost per unit of Actual data Actual data as percent of trend Per hour, nonfarm business sector Ratio to capacity, manufacturing Ratio to capacity, materials Overtime hours, manufacturing 9/88 10/88 10/88 11/87 11/87 p Participation rates, civilian labor force Both sexes 16-19 years of age Females 20 years and over Males 20 years and over. Personal consumption expenditures Automobiles Durable goods, constant dollars Durable goods, current dollars Nondurable goods, constant dollars Nondurable goods, current dollars Services, constant dollars Services, current dollars Total, constant dollars Total, current dollars Total, percent of GNP Personal income— See Income. Personal saving Personal saving rate Petroleum and petroleum products, imports ALPHABETICAL INDEX—SERIES FINDING GUIDE—Continued Series title (See complete titles in "Titles and Sources of Series," following this index) Plant and equipment—See also Investment, capital. Contracts and orders, constant dollars Contracts and orders, current dollars Expenditures by business, constant dollars Expenditures by business, current dollars Expenditures by business, Dl Population, civilian employment as percent of Price indexes Consumer prices—See also International comparisons. All items Food Deflators Fixed-weighted, gross domestic business product Implicit price deflator, GNP Labor cost, price per unit of, nonfarm business Producer prices All commodities Capital equipment Crude materials Finished consumer goods Industrial commodities Intermediate materials Sensitive crude and intermediate materials Raw industrials, spot market prices Components Diffusion index Spot market index Sensitive crude and intermediate materials, change in producer prices Sensitive materials prices, percent change Stock prices—See also International comparisons. 500 common stocks 500 common stocks, Dl Price to unit labor cost, nonfarm business Prices, selling Manufacturing, Dl Retail trade, Dl Wholesale trade Dl Prime contract awards, Defense Department Prime rate charged by banks Producer prices—See Price indexes. Producers'durable equipment, nonresidential, GPDI Production- See Gross national product and Industrial production. Productivity Output per hour, business sector Output per hour, nonfarm business sector Profitability, Cl Profits Corporate profits after tax Constant dollars Current dollars With IVA and CCAdj, constant dollars With IVA and CCAdj, current dollars Corporate profits before tax With IVA and CCAdj With IVA and CCAd|, percent of national income Manufacturing and trade. Dl Manufacturing, Dl Per dollar of sales, manufacturing Profitability, Cl Ratio, profits to corporate domestic income Ratio, profits with IVA and CCAdj to corporate domestic income Proprietors'income with IVA and CCAdj Proprietors' income with IVA and CCAdj, percent of national income Raw industrials, spot market prices Components Diffusion index Spot market index Rentai income of persons with CCAdj Rental income of persons with CCAdj, percent of nationahncome Reserves, free Residential fixed investment, constant dollars Current issue Series (page numbers) number Charts Tables 20 10 100 61 970 90 12,23 23 24 24 38 17 Historical data (issue date) Series description (*) 66 66 67 67 76 62 9/88 9/88 10/88 10/88 10/88 2/88 21 21 23 23 9 320 322 49 49 84,95 84 3/88 3/88 49 49 311 310 26 48 48 29 84 84 70 8/88 8/88 10/88 49 38 28 330 333 331 334 335 332 98 48 48 48 48 48 48 28 85 86 85 86 85 86 69 3/88 3/88 3/88 3/88 3/88 3/88 4/88 50 51 50 51 51 50 51 967 23 37 28 79 75 69 1/88 1/88 25 25 98 99 28 13,28 69 69 4/88 4/88 51 25 19 968 26 13,28 37 29 69 75 70 12/88 12/88 10/88 25 25 28 976 978 977 525 109 38 38 38 53 35 76 76 76 90 73 8/87 8/87 8/87 12/88 2/88 37 37 37 55 35 88 25 67 8/88 40 370 358 916 50 50 11 88 88 60 10/88 10/88 1/88 52 52 5 18 16 80 79 28 28 29 29 69 69 69 69 8/88 8/88 8/88 8/88 26 26 26 26 286 287 972 960 15 916 22 45 47 38 37 29 11 29 82 83 76 75 70 60 69 11/88 11/88 8/87 5/88 1/88 1/88 8/88 26 26 37 37 27 5 26 81 282 29 45 70 82 8/88 11/88 26 47 283 47 83 11/88 47 967 23 284 37 28 45 79 75 69 82 i/88 1/88 11/88 25 25 47 285 93 89 47 33 25 83 72 67 11/88 11/88 8/88 47 35 40 Series title (See complete titles in "Titles and Sources of Series," following this index) Residential fixed investment, percent of GNP Residential structures—See Housing. Retail sales, constant dollars Retail sales, current dollars S Salaries—See Compensation. Sales Final sales, constant dollars Machinery and equipment sales and business construction expenditures Manufacturing and trade sales, constant dollars. Manufacturing and trade sales, current dollars. Manufacturing and trade sales, Dl Ratio, inventories to sales, manufacturing and trade. Retail sales, constant dollars Retail sales, current dollars Saving Business saving Government surplus or deficit Gross saving Personal saving Personal saving rate Selling prices—See Prices, selling Sensitive crude and intermediate materials, change in producer prices.... Sensitive materials prices, percent change Shipments of defense products Spot market prices, raw industrials Components Diffusion index Spot market index State and local government—See Government. Stock prices—See also International comparisons. 500 common stocks 500 common stocks, Dl Surplus—See Government. Treasury bill rate Treasury bond yields Current issue Series (Paie numbers) number Charts Tables Series description (*) 249 47 83 10/88 59 54 22 22 65 65 11/88 11/88 213 40 69 57 56 973 77 59 54 24 14.22 22 38 15,27 22 22 67 65 65 76 68 65 65 11/88 11/88 8/87 12/88 11/88 11/88 295 298 290 292 293 46 46 46 46 46 82 83 82 82 83 11/88 11/88 11/88 11/88 11/88 99 588 28 13,28 54 69 69 91 4/88 4/88 9/88 51 25 17 967 23 37 28 79 75 69 1/88 1/88 25 25 19 968 13,28 37 69 75 12/88 12/88 25 25 114 115 34 34 72 73 5/88 5/88 62 61 61 74 2/88 2/88 2/88 2/88 2/88 2/88 2/88 2/88 91 60 5 962 15,18 16 12,16 36 446 445 447 444 37 51 51 51 51 18,51 62,89 43 44 45 18 18 18 62 62 62 561 96 25 54 21 21 91 64 64 Velocity of money GNP to money supply Ml, ratio Personal income to money supply M2, ratio Vendor performance, slower deliveries.. 107 31 108 31 32 12,21 1 12,16 961 36 20 20 10/88 U Unemployment Duration of unemployment, average. Help-wanted advertising, ratio to unemployment Initial claims for unemployment insurance Initial claims for unemployment insurance, Dl Number unemployed Both sexes 16-19 years of age Females 20 years and over Full-time workers Males 20 years and over Total unemployed Unemployment rates Civilian 15 weeks and over Insured unemployment. Unfilled orders, manufacturers' Defense products... Durable goods industries Durable goods industries, change. United Kingdom—See International comparisons. W Wages and salaries—See Compensation. West Germany—See International comparisons. Wholesale (producer) prices—See Price indexes. Workweek, manufacturing Average weekly hours Components Diffusion index Historical data (issue date) 17 17 17 37 17 20 20 2/88 2/88 15 15 15 71 71 64 11/88 1/88 61 77 74 7/88 30 30 17 7/88 NOTE: CCAdj, capital consumption adjustment; Cl, composite index; Dl, diffusion index; GNP, gross national product; GPDI, gross private domestic investment; IVA, inventory valuation adjustment. * The number shown is the page of the Handbook of Cyclical Indicators (1984) on which the series description appears. 111 TITLES AND SOURCES OF SERIES Series are listed below according to the sections of this report in which they appear. Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect relationships or order among the series. "M" following a series title indicates monthly data; "Q" indicates quarterly data. Data apply to the whole period except when indicated by "EOM" (end of month) or "EOQ" (end of quarter). To save space, the commonly used sources listed below are referred to by number: Source 1—U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis; Source 2—U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census; Source 3—U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics; Source 4—Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. Following the source for each series is an indication of the pages on which that series appears. The "Series Finding Guide" also lists chart and table page numbers for each series. I-A. Composite Indexes 910. Composite index of eleven leading indicators (includes series 1, 5, 8, 19, 20, 29, 32, 36, 99r 106, 111) (M).-Source 1 (10,39,60) 10. Contracts and orders for plant and equipment in current dollars (M).—Sources 1, 2, and McGrawHill Information Systems Company; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census and Bureau of Economic Analysis (23,66) 11. Newly approved capital appropriations, 1,000 manufacturing corporations (Q).—The Conference Board (24,66) 12. Index of net business formation (M).—Source 1; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic Analysis and National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. (23,65) 13. Number of new business incorporations (M).—Dun & Bradstreet, Inc.; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic Analysis and National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. (23,65) 33. Net change in mortgage debt held by financial institutions and life insurance companies (M).— Sources 1; 4; American Council of Life Insurance; Federal National Mortgage Association; U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development, Government National Mortgage Association; National Association of Mutual Savings Banks; and Federal Home Loan Bank Board; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic Analysis (32,71) 34. Corporate net cash flow in current dollars (Q).— Source 1 (29,70) 35. Corporate net cash flow in 1982 dollars (Q).-Source 1 (29,70) 36. Change in manufacturing and trade inventories on hand and on order in 1982 dollars (M).—Sources 1 and 2 (13,26,68) 14. Current liabilities of business failures (M).—Dun & Bradstreet, Inc. (33,72) 37. Number of persons unemployed (M).—Source 3 (18,51,62,89) 15. Profits after taxes per dollar of sales, manufacturing corporations (Q).—Source 2 and Federal Trade Commission; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic Analysis (29,70) 38. Change in manufacturers' inventories, materials and supplies on hand and on order (M).—Source 2 (26,68) 16. Corporate profits after tax in current dollars (Q).— Source 1 (28,69) 39. Percent of consumer installment loans delinquent 30 days and over (EOM).—American Bankers Association (33,72) 18. Corporate profits after tax in 1982 dollars (Q).— Source 1 (28,69) 40. Employees on nonagricultural payrolls, goodsproducing industries (M).—Source 3 (17,62) 19. Index of stock prices, 500 common stocks (M).— Standard & Poor's Corporation (13,28,59,69,96) 41. Employees on nonagricultural payrolls (M).—Source 42. Number of persons engaged in nonagricultural activities (M).-Source 3 (17,62) 917. Composite index of money and financial flows (includes series 104, 106, 111) (M).-Source 1 (11,60) 20. Contracts and orders for plant and equipment in 1982 dollars (M).-Sources 1, 2, and McGraw-Hill Information Systems Company; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census and Bureau of Economic Analysis (12,23,66) 920. Composite index of four roughly coincident indicators (includes series 41, 47, 51, 57) (M).-Source 1 (10,39,60) 21. Average weekly overtime hours of production or nonsupervisory workers, manufacturing (M).— Source 3 (16,61) 930. Composite index of six lagging indicators (includes series 62, 77, 91, 95, 101, 109) (M).-Source 1 (10,39,60) 22. Ratio, corporate domestic profits after tax to total corporate domestic income (Q).-Source 1 (29,69) 914. Composite index of capital investment commitments (includes series 12, 20, 29) (M).-Source 1 (11,60) 915. Composite index of inventory investment and purchasing (includes series 8, 32, 36, 99) (M).-Source 1 (1160) 916. Composite index of profitability (includes series 19,26,80) (M).-Soureel (11,60) 940. Ratio, coincident composite index (series 920) to lagging composite index (series 930) (M).—Source 1 (11,60) I-B. Cyclical Indicators 1. Average weekly hours of production or nonsupervisory workers, manufacturing (M).—Source 3 (12,16,61,77) 5. Average weekly initial claims for unemployment insurance, State programs (M).—U.S. Department of Labor, Employment and Training Administration; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic Analysis (12,16,61) 23. Index of spot market prices, raw industrial materials (M).—Source 3 and Commodity Research Bureau, Inc. (Used by permission. Beginning with June 1981, this series may not be reproduced without written permission from Commodity Research Bureau, Inc.) (28,69,79) 24. Manufacturers' new orders in current dollars, nondefense capital goods industries (M).—Source 2 (23,66) 25. Change in manufacturers' unfilled orders, durable goods industries (M).-Source 2 (21,64) 26. Ratio, implicit price deflator to unit labor cost, nonfarm business sector (Q).—Sources 1 and 3 (29,70) 6. Manufacturers' new orders in current dollars, durable goods industries (M).-Source 2 (21,64,77) 27. Manufacturers' new orders in 1982 dollars, nondefense capital goods industries (M).—Sources 1 and 2 (23,66) 7. Manufacturers' new orders in 1982 dollars, durable goods industries (M).-Sources 1 and 2 (21,64) 28. New private housing units started (M).—Source 2 (25,67) 8. Manufacturers' new orders in 1982 dollars, consumer goods and materials industries (M).—Sources land 2 (12,21,64) 29. Index of new private housing units authorized by local building permits (M).-Source 2 (13,25,67) 9. Construction contracts awarded for commercial and industrial buildings, floor space (M).—McGrawHill Information Systems Company; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic Analysis (Used by permission. This series may not be reproduced without written permission from the source.) (23,66) 112 30. Change in business inventories in 1982 dollars (Q).— Source 1 (26,42,68,81) 31. Change in manufacturing and trade inventories (M).-Sources 1 and 2 (26,68) 32. Vendor performance, percent of companies receiving slower deliveries (M).—Purchasing Management Association of Chicago (12,21,64) 3 43. Unemployment rate (M).-Source 3 (14,17,62) (18,62) 44. Unemployment rate, persons unemployed 15 weeks and over (M).-Source 3 (18,62) 45. Average weekly insured unemployment rate, State programs (M).—U.S. Department of Labor, Employment and Training Administration (18,62) 46. Index of help-wanted advertising in newspapers (M).—The Conference Board (16,61) 47. Index of industrial production (M).—Source 4 (14,20,39,58,63,78,94) 48. Employee hours in nonagricultural establishments (M).-Source3 (17,39,61) 49. Value of goods output in 1982 dollars (Q).—Source 1 (20,63) 50. Gross national product in 1982 dollars (Q).—Source 1 (19,39,40,63,80) 51. Personal income less transfer payments in 1982 dollars (M).-Source 1 (14,19,39,63) 52. Personal income in 1982 dollars (M).—Source 1 (19,63) 53. Wages and salaries in 1982 dollars, mining, manufacturing, and construction (M).-Source 1 (19,63) 54. Sales of retail stores in current dollars (M).—Source 2 (22,65) 55. Personal consumption expenditures, automobiles (Q).-Source 1 (22,65) 56. Manufacturing and trade sales in current dollars (M).-Sourcesland2 (22,65) 57. Manufacturing and trade sales in 1982 dollars (M).-Sourcesl and 2 (14,22,65) 58. Index of consumer sentiment (Q,M).—University of Michigan, Survey Research Center (22,65) 59. Sales of retail stores in 1982 dollars (M).-Sources 1 and 2 (22,65) TITLES AND SOURCES OF SERIES-Continued 60. Ratio, help-wanted advertising in newspapers to number of persons unemployed (M).—Sources 1, 3, and The Conference Board (16,61) 88. Gross private nonresidential fixed investment in 1982 dollars, producers' durable equipment (Q).— Source 1 (25,67) 62. Index of labor cost per unit of output, manufacturing (M).-Sourcesland4 (15,30,70) 89. Gross private residential fixed investment dollars (Q).-Source 1 Ratio, civilian employment to population ing age (M).-Sources 1 and 3 63. Index of unit labor cost, business sector (Q).—Source 91. Average duration of unemployment in weeks (M).— 61. New plant and equipment expenditures by business in current dollars(Q).-Source 1 (24,67) 3 Source 3 (30,70) 64. Compensation of employees as a percent of national income (Q).-Source 1 (30,47,70,83) Free reserves (M).—Source 4 in 1982 (25,67) of work(17,62) (15,18,62) (M).-Source4 (33,72) 66. Consumer installment credit outstanding (EOM).— Source 4 (35,73) 96. Manufacturers' unfilled orders, durable goods indus- personal income (M).—Sources 1 and 4 tries (EOM) .-Source 2 67. Bank rates on short-term business loans (Q).—Source (15,35,73) (21,64) (35,73) 97. Backlog of capital appropriations, 1,000 manufac- 68. Labor cost in current dollars per unit of gross domestic product in 1982 dollars, nonfinancial corporations (Q).-Source 1 (30,70) turing corporations (EOQ).—The Conference Board crude and intermediate materials (M).—Sources 1 and 3 (28,69) 99. Change in sensitive materials prices (M).—Sources 1, 3, and Commodity Research Bureau, Inc. (13,28,69) 70. Manufacturing and trade inventories in 1982 dollars (EOM).-Sources 1 and 2 (27,68) 100. New plant and equipment expenditures by business in 1982 dollars (Q).-Sou reel (24,67) 71. Manufacturing and trade inventories in current dollars (EOM).-Sources 1 and 2 (27,68) 101. Commercial and industrial loans outstanding in 1982 74. Index of industrial production, nondurable manufactures (M).-Source 4 (20,63) 75. Index of industrial production, consumer goods (M).-Source4 (22,65) 76. Index of industrial production, business equipment (M).-Source4 (24,67) 77. Ratio, manufacturing and trade inventories to sales in 1982 dollars (M).-Sources 1 and 2 (15,27,68) 78. Manufacturers' inventories, materials and supplies on hand and on order (EOM).-Source 2 (27,68) dollars (M).—Sources 1, 4, and The Federal Reserve Bank of New York (15,35,73) 102. Change in money supply M2 (M).-Source 4 (31,71) 104. Change in total liquid assets (M).—Sources 1 and 4 and 4 106. 107. Ratio, gross national product to money supply Ml (Q).-Sources land 4 Sources 1 and 4 4 112. 964. Diffusion index of manufacturers' new orders, 34-35 durable goods industries (M).—Sources 1 and 2 (37,75,77) 965. Diffusion index of newly approved capital appropriations in 1982 dollars, 17 manufacturing industries (Q).-The Conference Board (37,75) 966. Diffusion index of industrial production, 24 industries (M).-Sources 1 and 4 (37,75,78) 967. Diffusion index of spot market prices, 13 raw industrial materials (M).—Sources 1, 3, and Commodity Research Bureau, Inc. (37,75,79) 968. Diffusion index of stock prices, 500 common stocks, 40-82 industries (M).—Source 1 and Standard & Poor's Corporation (37,75) 970. Diffusion index of expenditures for new plant and equipment by U.S. nonfarm business, 22 industries (Q).-Sourcel Source 4 (32,72) 114. Discount rate on new issues of 91-day Treasury bills (M).-Source4 (34,72) Yield on long-term Treasury bonds (M).-U.S. Department of the Treasury (34,73) Yield on new issues of high-grade corporate bonds (M).—Citibank and U.S. Department of the Treasury (34,73) 117. Yield on municipal bonds, 20-bond average (M).-The Bond Buyer (34,73) Secondary market yields on FHA mortgages (M).— U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development, Federal Housing Administration (34,73) 119. Federal funds rate (M).-Source 4 (34,72) (38,76) 971. Diffusion index of new orders, manufacturing—about 600 businessmen reporting (Q).-Dun & Bradstreet, Inc. (Used by permission. This series may not be reproduced without written permission from the source.) (38,76) 972. Diffusion index of net profits, manufacturing and trade—about 1,400 businessmen reporting (Q).— Dun & Bradstreet, Inc. (Used by permission. This series may not be reproduced without written permission from the source.) (38,76) 973. Diffusion index of net sales, manufacturing and trade—about 1,400 businessmen reporting (Q).— Dun & Bradstreet, Inc. (Used by permission. This series may not be reproduced without written permission from the source.) (38,76) Net change in business loans (M).—Sources 1, 4, and The Federal Reserve Bank of New York (32,71) 113. Net change in consumer installment credit (M).— Diffusion index of initial claims for unemployment insurance, State programs, 51 areas (M).—Source 1 and U.S. Department of Labor, Employment and Training Administration; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic Analysis (36,74) 963. Diffusion index of employees on private nonagricultural payrolls, 172-186 industries (M).-Source 3 (36,74) (32,72) (M).—Sources 1, 4, Federal Home Loan Bank Board, and The Federal Reserve Bank of New York (13,32,72) (25,67) 87. Gross private nonresidential fixed investment in 1982 dollars, structures (Q).-Source 1 (25,67) 962. (35,73) Change in business and consumer credit outstanding (36,74) Diffusion index of net profits, manufacturing-about 600 companies (Q).—Dun & Bradstreet, Inc. (Used by permission. This series may not be reproduced without written permission from the source.) (37,75) 961. Diffusion index of average weekly hours of production or nonsupervisory workers, 20 manufacturing industries (M).-Sources 1 and 3 (36,74,77) 110. Funds raised by private nonfinancial borrowers in 86. Gross private nonresidential fixed investment in 1982 dollars (Q).-Source 1 (M).-Source 1 960. (31,71) 109. Average prime rate charged by banks (M).—Source 84. Capacity utilization rate, materials (M).—Source 4 (20,64) (31,71) (31,71) 108. Ratio, personal income to money supply M2 (M).— 82. Capacity utilization rate, manufacturing (M).— Source 4 (20,64) 85. Change in money supply Ml (M).-Source 4 (31,71) Money supply M2 in 1982 dollars (M).-Sources 1 and 4 (13,31,71) credit markets (Q).-Source 4 81. Ratio, corporate domestic profits after tax with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments to total corporate domestic income (Q).— Source 1 (29,70) (31,71) 105. Money supply Ml in 1982 dollars (M).-Sources 1 79. Corporate profits after tax with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments in current dollars (Q).-Source 1 (29,69) 80. Corporate profits after tax with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments in 1982 dollars (Q).-Source 1 (29,69) 952. Diffusion index of six lagging indicator components (24,66) 98. Percent change in producer prices for sensitive 69. Manufacturers' machinery and equipment sales and business construction expenditures (M).—Source 2 (24,67) 73. Index of industrial production, durable manufactures (M).-Source 4 (20,63) 951. Diffusion index of four roughly coincident indicator components (M).—Source 1 (36,74) (33,72) 95. Ratio, consumer installment credit outstanding to 72. Commercial and industrial loans outstanding in current dollars (M).—Sources 1, 4 and The Federal Reserve Bank of New York (35,73) 950. Diffusion index of eleven leading indicator components (M).-Sourcel (36,74) 94. Member bank borrowings from the Federal Reserve 65. Manufacturers' inventories, finished goods (EOM) .— Source 2 (27,68) 4 I-C. Diffusion Indexes 974. Diffusion index of number of employees, manufacturing and trade-about 1,400 businessmen reporting (Q).—Dun & Bradstreet, Inc. (Used by permission. This series may not be reproduced without written permission from the source.) (38,76) 975. Diffusion index of level of inventories, manufacturing and trade—about 1,400 businessmen reporting (Q).—Dun & Bradstreet, Inc. (Used by permission. This series may not be reproduced without written permission from the source.) (38,76) 113 TITLES AND SOURCES OF SERIES-Continued 976. 977. Diffusion index of selling prices, manufacturing— about 600 businessmen reporting (Q).—Dun & Bradstreet, Inc. (Used by permission. This series may not be reproduced without written permission from the source.) (38,76) Diffusion index of selling prices, wholesale tradeabout 400 businessmen reporting (Q).—Dun & Bradstreet, Inc. (Used by permission. This series may not be reproduced without written permission from the source.) (38,76) 978. Diffusion index of selling prices, retail trade-about 400 businessmen reporting (Q).—Dun & Bradstreet, Inc. (Used by permission. This series may not be reproduced without written permission from the source.) (38,76) 243. Gross private domestic fixed investment in 1982 dollars (Q).-Source 1 245 Change in business inventories in current dollars (Q)-Source 1 (42,81) 247 Change in business inventories as a percent of gross national product (Q).—Source 1 (47,83) 248. Gross private nonresidential fixed investment as a percent of gross national product (Q).—Source 1 (47,83) 249. Gross private residential fixed investment as a percent of gross national product (Q).—Source 1 (47,83) 250 Net exports of goods and services in current dollars (Q).-Sourcel (44,82) 289. Net interest as a percent of national income (Q).— Source 1 (47,83) 290. Gross saving (Q).-Source 1 292. Personal saving (Q).—Source 1 (46,82) 293. Personal saving rate (Q).—Source 1 (46,83) gross national product (Q).—Source 1 30. Change in business inventories in 1982 dollars (Q).— Source 1 (26,42,68,81) 252 50. Gross national product in 1982 dollars (Q).—Source 1 (19,39,40,63,80) 253 64. Compensation of employees as a percent of national income (Q).-Source 1 (30,47,70,83) 255 200. Gross national product in current dollars (Q).— Source 1 (40,80) (40,80) (47,83) Exports of goods and services in current dollars (Q).-Source 1 (44,82) Imports of goods and services in current dollars (Q).-Sourcel (44,82) Net exports of goods and services in 1982 dollars (Q).-Source 1 (44,82) 256 Exports of goods and services in 1982 dollars (Q).-Source 1 (44,82) (46,82) 295. Business saving (Q).-Source 1 (46,82) 298. Government surplus or deficit (Q).—Source 1 (46,83) II-B. Prices, Wages, and Productivity 310. Implicit price deflator for gross national product (Q).-Source 1 311. 251. Net exports of goods and services as a percent of II-A. National Income and Product 213. Final sales in 1982 dollars (Q).-Source 1 (42,81) (48,84) Fixed-weighted price index, gross domestic business product (Q).-Source 1 (48,84) 320. Consumer price index for all urban consumers (M).-Source3 (49,59,84,95) 322. Consumer price index for all urban consumers, food (M).-Source 3 (49,84) 330. Producer price index, all commodities (M).—Source 3 (48,85) 331. Producer price index, crude materials for further processing (M).—Source 3 (48,85) 332. Producer price index, intermediate materials, supplies, and components (M).—Source 3 (48,86) 257 Imports of goods and services in 1982 dollars (Q).-Source 1 (44,82) (40,80) 260 220. National income in current dollars (Q).—Source 1 (45,82) Government purchases of goods and services in current dollars (Q).-Source 1 (43,81) 261 223. Personal income in current dollars (M).—Source 1 (40,63) Government purchases of goods and services in 1982 dollars (Q).-Source 1 (43,81) 262 224. Disposable personal income in current dollars (Q).— Source 1 (40,80) Federal Government purchases of goods and services in current dollars (Q).—Source 1 (43,81) 263 225. Disposable personal income in 1982 dollars (Q).— Source 1 (40,80) Federal Government purchases of goods and services in 1982 dollars (Q).-Source 1 (43,81) 340. Index of average hourly earnings of production or nonsupervisory workers on private nonagricultural payrolls (M).-Source 3 (49,87) 265 227. Per capita disposable personal income in 1982 dollars (Q).-Sources 1 and 2 (40,80) Federal Government purchases of goods and services as a percent of gross national product (Q).— Source 1 (47,83) 341. Index of real average hourly earnings of production or nonsupervisory workers on private nonagricultural payrolls (M).-Source 3 (49,87) 230. Personal consumption expenditures in current dollars (Q).-Source 1 (41,80) 266. State and local government purchases of goods and services in current dollars (Q) .-Source 1 (43,81) 345. Index of average hourly compensation, all employees, nonfarm business sector (Q).—Source 3 (49,87) 231. Personal consumption expenditures in 1982 dollars (Q).-Source 1 (41,80) 267. State and local government purchases of goods and services in 1982 dollars (Q).-Source 1 (43,81) 232. Personal consumption expenditures in current dollars, durable goods (Q).-Source 1 (41,80) *68. State and local government purchases of goods and services as a percent of gross national product (Q).-Source 1 (47,83) 346. Index of real average hourly compensation, all employees, nonfarm business sector (Q).—Source 3 (49,88) 233. Personal consumption expenditures in 1982 dollars, durable goods (Q).—Source 1 (41,80) 280. Compensation of employees (Q).—Source 1 217. Per capita gross national product in 1982 dollars (Q).-Sources 1 and 2 235. Personal consumption expenditures as a percent of gross national product (Q).—Source 1 (47,83) 236. Personal consumption expenditures in current dollars, nondurable goods (Q).-Source 1 (41,81) 237. Personal consumption expenditures in current dollars, services (Q).-Source 1 (41,81) 238. Personal consumption expenditures in 1982 dollars, nondurable goods (Q).—Source 1 (41,81) 239. Personal consumption expenditures in 1982 dollars, services (Q).-Source 1 (41,81) 240. Gross private domestic investment in current dollars (Q).-Source 1 (42,81) 241. Gross private domestic investment in 1982 dollars (Q).-Source 1 (42,81) 242. Gross private domestic fixed investment in current dollars (Q).-Source 1 (42,81) 114 (45,82) 282. Proprietors' income with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments (Q).—Source 1 (45,82) £83 Proprietors' income with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments as a percent of national income (Q).-Source 1 (47,83) 284. Rental income of persons with capital consumption adjustment (Q).-Source 1 (45,82) 285. Rental income of persons with capital consumption adjustment as a percent of national income (Q).— Source 1 (47,83) 286 2g7 333. Producer price index, capital equipment (M).— Source 3 (48,86) 334. Producer price index, finished consumer goods (M).-Source3 (48,86) 335. Producer price index, industrial commodities (M).-Source3 (48,85) 348. Negotiated wage and benefit decisions, average first year changes (Q).-Source 3 (50,88) 349. Negotiated wage and benefit decisions, average changes over life of contract (Q).—Source 3 (50,88) 358. Index of output per hour, all persons, nonfarm business sector (Q).—Source 3 (49,88) 370. Index of output per hour, all persons, business sector (Q).-Source 3 (49,88) II-C. Labor Force, Employment, and Unemployment 37. Number of persons unemployed (M).—Source 3 (18,51,62,89) Corporate profits before tax with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments (Q).— Source 1 (45,82) 441. Civilian labor force (M).-Source 3 (51,89) 442. Civilian employment (M).-Source 3 (51,89) Corporate profits before tax with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments as a percent of national income (Q).—Source 1 (47,83) 444. Number unemployed, males 20 years and over 288. Net interest (Q).-Source 1 (45,82) (M).-Source 3 (51,89) 445. Number unemployed, females 20 years and over (M).-Source 3 (51,89) TITLES AND SOURCES OF SERIES-Continued 446. Number unemployed, both sexes 16-19 years of age (M).-Source 3 (51,89) 447. Number unemployed, full-time workers (M).— Source 3 (51,89) 448. Number of persons employed part time for economic reasons (M).-Source 3 (51,89) 451. Civilian labor force participation rate, males 20 years and over (M).—Source 3 (51,89) 452. Civilian labor force participation rate, females 20 years and over (M).-Source 3 (51,89) 453. Civilian labor force participation rate, both sexes 16-19 years of age (M)-Source 3 (51,89) II-D. Government Activities 500. Federal Government surplus or deficit (Q).—Source 1 (52,90) 501. Federal Government receipts (Q).—Source 1 570. Employment, defense products industries (M).— Source 3; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic Analysis (55,91) 577. Defense Department military personnel on active duty (EOM).—U.S. Department of Defense, Office of the Assistant Secretary of Defense (Comptroller), Washington Headquarters Services, Directorate for Information Operations and Reports (55,91) 578. Defense Department civilian personnel, direct hire employment (EOM).—U.S. Department of Defense, Office of the Assistant Secretary of Defense (Comptroller), Washington Headquarters Services, Directorate for Information Operations and Reports (55,91) 580. Defense Department net outlays, military functions and military assistance (M).—U.S. Department of Defense, Office of the Assistant Secretary of Defense (Comptroller), Directorate for Program and Financial Control; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic Analysis (54,91) 47. United States, index of industrial production (M).Source 4 (14,20,39,58,63,78,94) 320. United States, consumer price index for all urban consumers (M).—Source 3 (49,59,84,95) 721. Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, European countries, index of industrial production (M).—Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (Paris) (58,94) 722. United Kingdom, index of industrial production (M) .-Central Statistical Office (London) (58,94) 723. Canada, index of industrial production (M).— Statistics Canada (Ottawa) (58,94) 725. West Germany, index of industrial production (M).Statistisches Bundesamt (Wiesbaden) (58,94) 726. France, index of industrial production (M).-lnstitut National de la Statistique et des Etudes Economiques (Paris) (58,94) 588. Manufacturers' shipments, defense products (M).— Source 2 (54,91) 502. Federal Government expenditures (Q).—Source 1 (52,90) 727. Italy, index of industrial production (M).-lstituto Centrale di Statistica (Rome) (58,94) II-E. U.S. International Transactions 510. State and local government surplus or deficit (Q).— Source 1 (52,90) 728. Japan, index of industrial production (M).—Ministry of International Trade and Industry (Tokyo) (58,94) 602. Exports, excluding military aid shipments (M).— Source 2 (56,92) 511. State and local government receipts (Q).—Source 1 (52,90) 604. Exports of domestic agricultural products (M).— Source 2; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic Analysis (56,92) (52,90) 512. State and local government expenditures (Q).— Source 1 (52,90) 517. Defense Department gross obligations incurred (M).-U.S. Department of Defense, Office of the Assistant Secretary of Defense (Comptroller), Directorate for Program and Financial Control; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic Analysis (53,90) 525. Defense Department prime contract awards for work performed in the United States (M).-U.S. Department of Defense, Office of the Assistant Secretary of Defense (Comptroller), Washington Headquarters Services, Directorate for Information Operations and Reports; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic Analysis (53,90) 543. Defense Department gross unpaid obligations outstanding (EOM).—U.S. Department of Defense, Office of the Assistant Secretary of Defense (Comptroller), Directorate for Program and Financial Control; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic Analysis (53,90) 606. Exports of nonelectrical machinery (M).—Source 2; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic Analysis (56,92) 612. General imports (M).-Source 2 (56,92) 614. Imports of petroleum and petroleum products (M).—Source 2; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic Analysis (56,92) 616. Imports of automobiles and parts (M).—Source 2; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic Analysis (56,92) 618. Merchandise exports, adjusted, excluding military (Q).-Source 1 (57,93) 620. Merchandise imports, adjusted, excluding military (Q).-Source 1 (M).— percent Econom(59,95) 736. France, consumer price index (M).—Institut National de la Statistique et des Etudes Economiques (Paris); percent changes seasonally adjusted by Bureau of Economic Analysis (59,95) 737. Italy, consumer price index (M).—Istituto Centrale di Statistica (Rome); percent changes seasonally adjusted by Bureau of Economic Analysis (59,96) 738. Japan, consumer price index (M).—Bureau of Statistics, Office of the Prime Minister (Tokyo); percent (57,93) changes seasonally adjusted by Bureau of Economic Analysis (59,95) 651. Income on U.S. investment abroad (Q).—Source 1 (57,93) 742. United Kingdom, index of stock prices (M).-Central 557. Index of industrial production, defense and space equipment (M).—Source 4 (54,91) 667. Balance on goods and services (Q).—Source 1 (57,93) (Q).-Source 1 (57,93) 668. Exports of goods and services, excluding transfers under U.S. military grants (Q).-Source 1 (57,93) 669. Imports of goods and services (Q).—Source 1 (57,93) 564. Federal Government purchases of goods and ser- II-F. International Comparisons vices, national defense (Q).—Source 1 (55,91) 19. United States, index of stock prices, 500 common 565. National defense purchases as a percent of gross stocks (M).—Standard & Poor's Corporation national product (Q).-Source 1 (55,91) (13,28,59,69,96) 735. West Germany, consumer price index Statistisches Bundesamt (Wiesbaden); changes seasonally adjusted by Bureau of ic Analysis (57,93) 652. Income on foreign investment in the United States 561. Manufacturers' unfilled orders, defense products (EOM).-Source 2 (54,91) 733. Canada, consumer price index (M).—Statistics Canada (Ottawa); percent changes seasonally adjusted by Bureau of Economic Analysis (59,96) 622. Balance on merchandise trade (Q).—Source 1 548. Manufacturers' new orders, defense products (M).— Source 2 (53,90) 559. Manufacturers' inventories, defense products (EOM). -Source 2 (54,91) 732. United Kingdom, consumer price index (M).— Department of Employment (London); percent changes seasonally adjusted by Bureau of Economic Analysis (59,95) Statistical Office (London) (59,96) 743. Canada, index of stock prices (M).—Toronto Stock Exchange (Toronto) (59,96) 745. West Germany, index of stock prices (M).— Statistisches Bundesamt (Wiesbaden) (59,96) 746. France, index of stock prices (M).-Institut National de la Statistique et des Etudes Economiques (Paris) (59,96) 747. Italy, index of stock prices (M).-Banca d'ltalia (Rome) (59,96) 748. Japan, index of stock prices (M).—Bank of Japan (Tokyo) (59,96) Superintendent of Documents U.S. Government Printing Office Washington, D.C. 20402 OFFICIAL BUSINESS Penalty for Private Use $300 FIRST-CLASS MAIL POSTAGE & FEES PAID USGPO PERMIT No. G-26