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U.S. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE
Juanita M. Kreps, Secretary
Courtenay M. Slater, Chief Economist for the Department of Commerce
BUREAU OF ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
George Jaszi, Director
Allan H. Young, Deputy Director
John E. Cremeans, Associate Director for National
Analysis and Projections
Feliks Tamm, Editor
This report is prepared in the Statistical Indicators Division, Bureau of Economic Analysis.
Technical staff and their responsibilities for the publication areBarry A. Beckman—Technical supervision and review
Morton Somer—Selection of seasonal adjustment methods
Betty F. Tunstall—Collection and compilation of basic data.
Telephone (202) 523-0541
The cooperation of various government and private agencies which provide data is gratefully
acknowledged. Agencies furnishing data are indicated in the list of series and sources at the
back of this report.
This publication is prepared under the general guidance of a technical committee under
the auspices of the Office of Federal Statistical Policy and Standards. The committee
consists of the following persons:
Beatrice N. Vaccara, Chairman, U.S. Department of the Treasury
John E. Cremeans, Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Department of Commerce
Joseph W. Duncan, Office of Federal Statistical Policy and Standards
Lyle E. Gramley, Council of Economic Advisers, Executive Office of the President
J. Cortland Peret, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Julius Shiskin, Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Department of Labor

ABOUT THIS REPORT
BUSINESS CONDITIONS DIGEST (BCD) provides
a monthly look at many of the economic time
series found most useful by business analysts
and forecasters.
The original BCD, which began publication
in 1961 under the title Business Cycle Developments, emphasized the cyclical indicators approach to the analysis of business conditions
and prospects. The report's contents were based
largely on the list of leading, roughly coincident,
and lagging indicators maintained by the
National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
In 1968, BCD was expanded to increase its
usefulness to analysts using other approaches to
business conditions analysis. Principal additions
to the report were series from the national income and product accounts and series based on
surveys of businessmen's and consumers' anticipations and intentions. The composite indexes were added at that time, and the report's
present title was adopted.
The dominant feature of the current BCD,is
the cyclical indicators section, in which each
business cycle indicator is assigned a three-way
timing classification according to its behavior at
peaks, at troughs, and at all turns. This section is
supplemented by a section containing other important economic measures. The method of
presentation is explained in the introductory-text
which begins on page 1.
'

Annual subscription price: $40 domestic, $50
foreign. Single copy price: $3.50 domestic, $4.50
foreign. For information concerning foreign airmail delivery, available at an additional charge,
write the Superintendent of Documents (address

Most of the data contained in this report
also are published by their source agencies. A
series finding guide and a complete list of series
titles and sources can be found at the back of the
report.
Cyclical Indicators are economic time series
which have been singled out as leaders, coinciders, or laggers based on their general conformity to cyclical movements in aggregate
economic activity. In this report, cyclical indicators are classified both by economic process
and by their average timing at business cycle
peaks, at business cycle troughs, and at peaks
and troughs combined. These indicators have
been selected primarily on the basis of their
cyclical behavior, but they also have proven
useful in forecasting, measuring, and interpreting short-term fluctuations in aggregate
economic activity.
Other Economic Measures provide additional information for the evaluation of current business
conditions and prospects. They include selected
components of the national income and product
accounts; measures of prices, wages, and
productivity; measures of the labor force,
employment, and unemployment; economic
data on Federal, State, and local government activities; measures of U.S. international transactions; and selected economic comparisons with
major foreign countries.
follows), enclosing a copy of your address label.
Make checks payable to the Superintendent of
Documents. Send to the U.S. Government
Printing Office, Washington, D.C. 20402.

BUSINESS CONDITIONS DIGEST

New Features and Changes for This Issue

iii

BCII

METHOD OF PRESENTATION
Seasonal Adjustments
MCD Moving Averages
Reference Turning Dates
Part I. Cyclical Indicators
Part II. Other Important Economic Measures
How To Read Charts
How To Locate a Series
Summary of Recent Data and Current Changes

1
1
1
1
4
6
6
7

APRIL 1978
Data Through March
Volume 18, Number 4

PART I.
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
COMPOSITE INDEXES AND
THEIR COMPONENTS
A1
A2_
A3_
A4

Composite Indexes
Leading Index Components
Coincident Index Components
Lagging Index Components

Chart

Table

11
13
15
16

59
—
—
—

17
20
22
24
27
29
32

60
62
63
64
67
68
70

37
—
40

73
75
-

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
BY ECONOMIC PROCESS
B1
82
B3
B4
B5
B6
B7

Employment and Unemployment
Production and Income
Consumption, Trade, Orders, and Deliveries
Fixed Capital Investment
Inventories and Inventory Investment
Prices, Costs, and Profits
Money and Credit

DIFFUSION INDEXES
AND RATES OF CHANGE
C1
C2
C3

Diffusion Indexes
Selected Diffusion Index Components
Rates of Change

The Secretary of Commerce has determined that the publication of this periodical is necessary in the transaction of the public business required by law of this Department. Use of funds for printing this periodical has
been approved by the Director of the Office of Management and Budget through September 1, 1980.




ItCII




PART II.
OTHER IMPORTANT
ECONOMIC MEASURES
NATIONAL INCOME
AND PRODUCT
AT

A4

A7
A8

GNP and Personal Income
Personal Consumption Expenditures
Gross Private Domestic Investment
Government Purchases of Goods and Services
Foreign Trade
National Income and Its Components
Saving
Shares of GNP and National Income

Chart

Table

41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48

79
79
80
80
81
81
81
82

49
50

83
86

52

88

53
54

89
89

55
56

90
91

57
53
53

92
93
94

PRICES, WAGES,
AND PRODUCTIVITY
Price Movements
Wages and Productivity

LABOR FORCE, EMPLOYMENT,
AND UNEMPLOYMENT
Civilian Labor Force and Major Components

GOVERNMENT ACTIVITIES
Receipts and Expenditures
Defense Indicators

U.S. INTERNATIONAL TRANSACTIONS
Merchandise Trade
Goods and Services Movements

INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS
Industrial Production
Consumer Prices
Stock Prices

PART III. APPENDIXES
A. MCD and Related Measures of Variability . . . .
QCD and Related Measures of Variability
B. Current Adjustment Factors
C. Historical Data for Selected Series
D. Descriptions and Sources of Series (See "Alphabetical Index—Series Finding Guide")
E. Business Cycle Expansions and Contractions: 1854 to 1975 (September 1977 issue}
F. Specific Peak and Trough Dates for Selected Business Indicators (October 1977 issue)
G. Experimental Data and Analyses
Alphabetical index—Series Finding Guide
Titles and Sources of Series

95
98
101
102

104
109
113

Readers are invited to submit comments and
suggestions concerning this publication.
Address them to Feliks Tamm, Chief, Statistical
Indicators Division, Bureau of Economic Analysis,
U.S. Department of Commerce, Washington, D.C. 20230

NEW FEATURES
AND CHANGES
FOR THIS ISSUE

A limited number of
changes are made from
time to time to incorporate recent findings of economic
research, newly available time series, and
revisions made by
source agencies in
concept, compos/t/on,
comparability, coverage,
seasonal adjustment
methods, benchmark

Changes in this issue are as follows:

data, etc. Changes may

1. Data from the survey on "Manufacturers' Shipments,
Inventories, and Orders" have been revised by the source
agency for the period 1958 to date. These revisions reflect
(1) benchmarking of shipments and inventories data to the
1974, 1975, and 1976 Annual Surveys of Manufactures; (2)
recalculation of the new orders estimates; and (3) updating
of seasonal adjustment factors.
BCD series have been revised to incorporate these changes
as follows:
Series 6, 7, 8, 25, 36, 38, 65, 78, 96, and 964
have been revised for the period 1958 to date.
Series 10, 20, 24, 27, 69, and 548 have been
revised for the period 1968 to date.
The other series which include data on manufacturers' shipments, inventories, and orders (series 31, 56, 57, 70, 71, and
77) have not yet been revised to incorporate these changes. Revised data for these series will be published when they become
available.
Further information concerning these revisions may be obtained from the U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of the
Census, Industry Division.
(Continued on page iv.)
The May issue of BUSINESS CONDITIONS DIGEST is scheduled
for release on June 6.




in

result in revisions of
data, additions or
deletions of series,
changes in placement of
series in relation to
other series, changes
in composition of
indexes, etc.

2. The Change in total liquid assets (series 104) has been revised for the
period 1964 to date. This revision reflects the source agency's incorporation of
new benchmark adjustments for nonmember banks and new seasonal adjustment factors.
Further information concerning this revision may be obtained from the Board of
Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Division of Research and Statistics,
Banking Section.
3. A new diffusion index for Initial claims for State unemployment insurance
is introduced in this issue. This new index, based on the 50 States and the District
of Columbia, replaces the index based on 47 labor market areas, for which data are no
longer available. The series identification number (962) remains unchanged.
4. Appendix C contains historical data for series 60, 72, 90, 112, and 967.
5. Appendix G contains recovery comparisons for series 8, 20, 30, 36, 50, 73,
74, and 92.




IV

This report is organized into two major parts.
Part I, Cyclical Indicators, includes about 150 time
series which have been found to conform well to
broad fluctuations in comprehensive measures of
economic activity. Nearly three-fourths of these are
individual indicators, the rest are related analytical
measures: Composite indexes, diffusion indexes,
and rates of change. Part II, Other Important
Economic Measures, covers over 130 series which
are valuable to business analysts and forecasters
but which do not conform well enough to business
cycles to qualify as cyclical indicators. (There are a
few exceptions: Four series which are included in
part I are also shown in part IS to complete the
systematic presentation of certain sets of data,
such as real GiNP and unemployment) The largest
section of part SI consists of quarterly series from
the national income and product accounts; other
sections relate to prices, labor force, government
activities, and international transactions and
comparisons.

The two parts are further divided into sections
(see table of contents), and each of these sections
is described briefly in this introduction. Data are
shown both in charts and in tables. Most charts
begin with 1955, but those for the composite
indexes and their components (part I, section A)
begin with 1948, and a few charts use a two-panel
format which covers only the period since 1968.
Except for section F in part II, charts contain
shading whicin indicates periods of recession in
general business activity. The tables contain data
for only the last few years. The historical data for
the various time series are contained in the 1977
Handbook of Cyclical Indicators.

In addition to the charts and tables described
above, each issue contains a summary table which
shows the current behavior of many of the series.
Appendixes present seasonal adjustment factors,
measures of variability, specific cycle turning
dates, cyclical comparison charts, and other
information of analytical interest An index appears
at the back of each issue. It should be noted that
the series numbers used are for identification
purposes only 'and do not reflect precise
relationships or order. However, all series
considered as cyclical indicators are numbered in
the range 1 to 199.




Seasonal Adjustments

Reference Turning Dates

Adjustments for average seasonal fluctuations
are often necessary to bring out the underlying
trends of time series. Such adjustments allow for
the effects of repetitive intrayear variations
resulting primarily from normal differences in
weather conditions and from various institutional
arrangements. Variations attributable to holidays
are usually accounted for by the seasonal
adjustment process; however, a separate holiday
adjustment is occasionally required for holidays
with variable dates, such as Easter. An additional
adjustment is sometimes necessary for series
which contain considerable variation due to the
number of working or trading days in each month.
As used in this report, the term "seasonal
adjustment" includes trading-day and holiday
adjustments where they have been made.
Most of the series in this report are presented in
seasonally adjusted form and, in most cases, these
are the official figures released by the source
agencies. However, for the special purposes of this
report, a number of series not ordinarily published
in seasonally adjusted form are shown here on a
seasonally adjusted basis.

The historical business cycle turning dates used
in this report are those designated by the National
Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. (NBER). They
mark the approximate dates when, according to
NBER, aggregate economic activity reached its
cyclical high or low levels. As a matter of general
practice, neither new reference turning dates nor
the shading for recessions will be entered on the
charts until after both the new reference peak and
the new reference trough bounding the shaded area
have been designated.
The historical reference turning dates are subject
to periodic review by NBER and on occasion are
changed as a result of revisions in important
economic time series. The dates shown in this publication for the 1948-1970 time period are those
determined by a 1974 review. The turning dates for
the 1973-1975 period are detailed in NBER's 1976
Annual Report.

Part I. CYCLICAL INDICATORS
MCD Moving Averages

Month-to-month changes in a series are often
dominated by erratic movements. MCD (months for
cyclical dominance) is an estimate of the appropriate span over which to observe cyclical
movements in a monthly series. (See appendix A.)
It is the smallest span of months for which the
average change in the cyclical factor is greater than
that in the irregular factor. The more erratic a
series is, the larger the MCD will be; thus, MCD is 1
for the smoothest series and 6 for the most erratic.
MCD moving averages (that is, moving averages of
the period equal to MCD) tend to have about the
same degree of smoothness for all series. Thus, a
5-term moving average of a series with an MCD of 5
will show its cyclical movements about as clearly
as the seasonally adjusted data for a series with an
MCD of 1.
The charts in this report generally include
centered MCD moving averages for those series
with an MCD greater than 4. The seasonally
adjusted data are also plotted to indicate their
variation about the moving averages and to provide
observations for the most recent months.

Business cycles have been defined as sequences
of expansion and contraction in various economic
processes that show up as major fluctuations in aggregate economic activity—that is, in comprehensive measures of production, employment,
income, and trade. While recurrent and pervasive,
business cycles of historical experience have been
definitely nonperiodic and have varied greatly in
duration and intensity, reflecting changes in
economic systems, conditions, policies, and
outside disturbances.
One of the techniques developed in business
cycle research and widely used as a tool for analyzing current economic conditions and prospects is
the cyclical indicators approach. This approach
identifies certain economic time series as tending
to lead, coincide with or lag behind the broad
movements in aggregate economic activity. Such
indicators have been selected and analyzed by
NBER in a series of studies published between
1938 and 1967. During the 1972-75 period, a new
comprehensive review of cyclical indicators was
carried out by the Bureau of Economic Analysis
(BEA) with the cooperation of the NBER research
staff. The present format and content of part I of
BCD are based on the results of that study.

Cross-Classification of Cyclical Indicators by Economic

and C.

A. Timing at Business Cycle Peaks
X, Economic
\Process
Cyclical x.
Timing
N.

LEADING (L)
INDICATORS
(62 series)

ROUGHLY
COINCtDENT(C)
INDICATORS
(23 series)

LAGGING (Lg)
INDICATORS
(18 series)

TIMING
UNCLASSIFIED
(u)
8 series)

1.
EMPLOYMENT
AND
UNEMPLOYMENT
(18 series)

II.
PRODUCTION
AND
INCOME
(10 series)

Marginal
employment
adjustments
(6 series)
Job vacancies
(2 series)
Comprehensive
employment
(1 series)
Comprehensive
unemployment
(3 series)

Capacity
utilization
(2 series)

New and
unfilled orders
and deliveries
(6 series)
Consumption
(2 series)

Formation of
business
enterprises
(2 series)
Business
Investment
commitments
(5 series)
Residential
construction
(3 series)

Comprehensive
employment
(1 series)

Comprehensive
output and
real Income
(4 series)
Industrial
production
(4 series)

Consumption
and trade
(4 series)

Backlog of
investment
commitments
(1 series)
Business
investment
expenditures
(5 series)

ill.

CONSUMPTION.
TRADE,
ORDERS, AND
DELIVERIES
(13 series)

V.
INVENTORIES
AND
INVENTORY
INVESTMENT
(9 series)

IV.
FIXED
CAPITAL
INVESTMENT
(18 series)

A

Duration of
unemployment
(2 series)

Trade
(1 series)

Business
Investment
commitments
(1 series)

VII.

MONEY
AND CREDIT
(26 series)

1

!

j
Stock prices
(1 series)
Commodity
prices
(1 series)
Profits and
profit
margins
(7 series)
Cash flows
(2 series)

Inventory
Investment
(4 series)
Inventories on
hand and on
order
(i series)

Money flows
(3 series)
Real money
supply
(2 series)
Credit flows
(4 series)
Credit
difficulties
(2 series)
Bank reserves
(2 series)
Interest rates
(1 series)
Velocity of
money
(2 series)
Interest rates
(2 series)

t.

Business
Investment
expenditures
(1 series)

Comprehensive
employment
(3 series)

VI.
PRICES, COSTS,
AND PROFITS
(17 series)

Inventories on
hand and on
order
(4 series)

i!
|

Unit labor costs
and labor share
(4 series)

Interest rates
(4 series)
Outstanding
debt
(3 series)

Commodity
prices
(1 series)
Profit share
(1 series)

Interest rates
(1 series)

B, Timing at Business Cycle Troughs
\. Economic
\Process
CyclicaiX
Timing
X.

U.

1.
EMPLOYMENT 1 PRODUCTION
AND
AND
UNEMPLOYINCOME
MENT
(10 series)
(18 series)

III.

CONSUMPTION,
TRADE,
ORDERS, AND
DELIVERIES
(13 series)

I
LEADING (L)
INDICATORS

Marginal
employment
adjustments
(3 series)

(47 series)

' " '

ROUGHLY
COINCIDENT(C)
INDICATORS
(23 series)

LAGGING (Lg)
INDICATORS
(40 series)

TIMING
UNCLASSIFIED
(U)
(1 series)




.

. .

VI,
VII,
PRICES, COSTS, MONEY
AND PROFITS
AND CREDIT
(17 series)
(26 series)

.. J

_u.
Inventory
investment
(4 series)

Stock prices
(1 series)
Commodity
prices
(2 series)
Profits and
profit margins
(6 series)
Cash flows
(2 series)

Money flows
(2 series)
Real money
supply
(2 series)
Credit flows
(4 series)
Credit
difficulties
(2 series)

ij

Profits
(2 series)

Money flow
(1 series)
Velocity of
money
(1 series)

5

Unit labor costs
and labor share
(4 series)

Velocity of
i
money
(1 series)
Bank reserves
(1 series)
Interest rates
(8 series)
Outstanding debt
(3 series)

i

Inventories on
hand and on
order
(5 series)
i

,
i
Bank reserves
(1 series)

i

i

•

•i

< Comprehensive
Consumption
i Business
output and
and trade
investment
real Income
(3 series)
commitments
f
(4 series)
(1 series)
'
Industrial
production
; (3 series)
Capacity
utilization
(2 series)
•I
,
•
' -;
- ' f - - • • - - . . - • - • .i •
Unfilled orders
Business
i
{1 series)
Investment
commitments
i
(2 series)
Business
investment
•
:
,
expenditures
(6 series)
f
'

Marginal
employment
adjustments
(1 series)
Job vacancies
(2 series)
Comprehensive
employment
(1 series)
Comprehensive
and duration
of
unemployment
(5 series)
i

V,
1 INVENTORIES !
AND
INVENTORY
j INVESTMENT
(9 series)
I

Formation of
business
enterprises
(2 series)
Business
investment
commitments
(4 series)
Residential
construction
(3 series)

I1

" "

Marginal
employment
adjustments
(2 series)
Comprehensive
employment
(4 series)

=-^=-.=.==^,=1^= . _

J_
New and unfilled
orders and
deliveries
(5 series)
Consumption
and trade
(4 series)

Industrial
production
(1 series)

IV.
FIXED
CAPITAL
INVESTMENT
(18 series)

1

Section A. Composite Indexes and
Their Components

w e l l - e s t a b l i s h e d d i f f e r e n c e s in timing.
Consequently, rough coincidences include short
leads (-) and lags (+) as well as exact
coincidences (0). (For monthly series, the range is
from -3 through +1 at peaks and from -1 through
All cyclical indicators have been evaluated ac+3 at troughs, where minus denotes leads and
cording to six major characteristics: Economic plus denotes lags in months.)
significance, statistical adequacy, consistency of
For purposes of constructing a composite index,
timing at business cycle peaks and troughs, confor- each component series is standardized; The monthmity to business expansions and contractions, to-month percent changes in a given series are
smoothness, and prompt availability (currency). A divided by the long-run average (without regard to
formal, detailed weighting scheme was developed sign) of those changes. Thus, the more volatile
and used to assess each series by all of the above series are prevented from dominating the index.
criteria. (See articles in the May and November The coincident index is calculated so that its long1975 issues of BCD.) The resulting scores relate term trend (since 1948) equals the average of the
to the cyclical behavior of the series during the trends of its four components. This trend, which is
period 1947-70. This analysis produced a new list similar to that of GNP in constant dollars, can be
of indicators classified by economic process and viewed as a linear approximation to the secular
Itypical timing at business cycle peaks and troughs. movement (at an average growth rate) in aggregate
(See tables on page2 and text below relating to sec- economic activity. The indexes of leading and lagtion B.)
ging indicators have been adjusted so that both
This information, particularly the scores relating their trends and their average month-to-month
to consistency of timing, served as a basis for the percent changes (without regard to sign) are apselection of series to be included in the composite proximately equal to those of the coincident index.
indexes. The indexes incorporate the best-scoring (For a more detailed description of the method of
series from many different economic-process constructing the composite indexes, see the 1977
groups and combine those with similar timing Handbook of Cyclical Indicators.)
behavior, using their overall performance scores as
In addition to these principal composite indexes,
'weights. Because they use series of historically differentiated according to cyclical timing, there
'tested usefulness and given timing characteristics are five indexes based on leading indicators which
(for example, leading at both peaks and troughs), have been grouped by economic process. Taken
fwith diversified economic coverage and a minimum together, these additional indexes include all 12
nrf duplication, composite indexes give more component series of the overall leading index, plus
eliable signals over time than do any of the a few related series. Also shown in this section is
ndividual indicators. Furthermore, much of the the ratio of the index of roughly coincident
ndependent measurement error and other "noise" indicators to the index of lagging indicators, a
n the included series are smoothed out in the series known to have a useful pattern of early
ndex as a whole. The indexes include only monthly cyclical timing. Numbers entered on the charts of
series that are acceptable in terms of relatively the composite indexes show the length, in months,
prompt availability and reasonable accuracy.
of leads (-) and lags (+) at each of the reference
The main composite indexes are distinguished by turning dates covered.
their cyclical timing. Thus, there is an index of
The next set of data consists of series included
eading indicators, series which historically reached in the principal composite indexes. These are the
their cyclical peaks and troughs earlier than the 12 components of the leading index, the 4
Corresponding business cycle turns. There is an components of the coincident index, and the 6
ndex of roughly coincident indicators, consisting components of the lagging index. Following the title
)f series which historically reached their turning of each series, its typical timing is identified by
joints at about the same time as the general three letter symbols in a small box. The first of
iconomy, and an index of lagging indicators, which these letters refers to the timing of the given
ncludes series that typically reached their peaks indicator at business cycle peaks, the second to its
md troughs later than the corresponding business timing at business cycle troughs, and the third to
;ycle turns.
its timing at all turns, i.e., at peaks and troughs
The leading index contains series with long as combined. "L" denotes a tendency to lead, "C" a
fell as short leads, but each series leads on the tendency to roughly coincide with the business
verage over time and shows a frequency of leads cycle turns (as represented by the NBERt the individual turns exceeding that attributable designated reference dates), and "Lg" a tendency
D chance, given the historical distribution of to lag. Since these series have been selected for the
yclical timing. (An analogous statement applies to consistency of their timing at both peaks and
he components of the lagging index.) Since 1948, troughs, all components of the leading index are
iads were generally more frequent and longer at denoted "L,L,L," all components of the coincident
eaks than at troughs of business cycles, while lags index "C.C.C," and all components of the lagging
'ere generally more frequent and longer at troughs index "Lg,Lg,l_g." It should be remembered that
lan at peaks. The adopted system of scoring and these classifications are based on limited evidence,
lassifying the indicators takes into account these namely the performance of the indicators during




the business cycles of the 1948-70 period, which
included five peaks and five troughs. While the
timing classifications are expected to agree with
the patterns prevailing in the near future, they will
not necessarily hold invariably in every instance.
The timing of the series in the post-1970 period
can be determined by inspection of the charts
where the 1973-75 recession is shaded according
to the dates of the NBER reference cycle
chronology.

Section B. Cyclical Indicators by Economic Process
This section covers 111 individual time series,
including the 22 indicators used in the
construction of the composite indexes. The peak
and trough timing classifications are shown on the
charts in the same manner as described above, but
this section includes series with different timing at
peaks and at troughs, as well as series where the
timing is not sufficiently consistent to be classified
as either L,C, or Lg according to the probabilistic
measures and scoring criteria adopted. Such series
are labeled U, i.e., unclassified as to timing at
turning points of the given type. Eight series are
unclassified at peaks, one series at troughs, and 19
series at all turns (of the 19, 15 have definite but
different timing at peaks and at troughs). No series
that is classified as U both at peaks and at troughs
is included in the list of cyclical indicators.
The classification scheme which groups the
indicators of this section by economic process and
cyclical timing is summarized in the two
tabulations on page 2. Cross-classification A is
based on the observed behavior of the series at five
business cycle peaks (November '48, July '53,
August '57, April '60, and December '69); crossclassification B, on their behavior at five business
cycle troughs (October '49, May '54, April '58,
February '61, and November 70). Each tabulation
distinguishes seven major economic processes and
four types of cyclical timing. The titles in the cells
identify subgroups of the given economic process
with the given timing characteristic. The number of
series in each such group is given in parentheses
following the title. Complete information on how
individual indicators are classified by timing at
peaks, troughs, and all turns, along with selected
measures and scores, is provided in the 1977
Handbook of Cyclical Indicators.

Section C. Diffusion Indexes and Rates of Change
Many series in this report are aggregates
compiled from numerous components. How the

individual components of an aggregate move over a
given timespan is summarized by a diffusion index
which indicates the percentage of components that
are rising (with half of the unchanged components
considered rising). Cyclical changes in these
diffusion indexes tend to lead those of the
corresponding aggregates. Since diffusion indexes
are highly erratic, they are computed from changes
measured over 6- or 9-month (or 3- or 4-quarter)
spans, as well as 1-month (or 1-quarter) spans.
Longer spans help to highlight the trends underlying the shorter-term fluctuations. Diffusion indexes
are shown for the component series included in
each of the three composite indexes and for the
components of some of the aggregate series shown
in section B.
Diffusion measures can be derived not only from
actual data but also from surveys of anticipations
or intentions. Indexes based on responses of
business executives about their plans and
expectations for several operating variables are
presented, along with the corresponding indexes
based on actual data, as the last set of diffusion
series.
This section also records rates of change for the
three composite indexes (leading, coincident, and
lagging) and for four indicators of aggregate
economic activity: GNP in constant dollars
(quarterly), industrial production, employee hours
in nonagricultural establishments, and personal
income less transfers in constant dollars. Rates of
change are shown for 1- and 3-month spans or
for 1-quarter spans.
Although movements in diffusion indexes and in
rates of change for the same aggregates are
generally positively correlated, these two measures
present information about two related but distinct
aspects of economic change. Diffusion indexes
measure the prevailing direction or scope of
change, while rates of change measure the degree
as well as the overall direction. As is the case for
diffusion indexes, cyclical movements in the rates
of change tend to lead those of the corresponding
indexes or aggregates, and thus, they tend to lead
at the business cycle turns as well.

Part II. OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC
MEASURES
This part is divided into six sections which cover
a wide range of quarterly and monthly time series
measuring various aspects of economic activity.
Some of these series are very comprehensive,
pertaining to the U.S. economy as a whole, others
have to do with particular sectors or markets, and




still others relate to U.S. international transactions
or to selected foreign countries. The represented
variables include incomes, outputs, and
expenditures; prices, earnings, and productivity;
labor resources; government receipts, obligations,
and purchases; exports and imports; and selected
indicators for a few key foreign countries.

Section A. National Income and Product

Personal consumption expenditures (A2) is
goods and services purchased by individuals,
operating expenses of nonprofit institutions, and
the value of food, fuel, clothing, rent of dwellings,
and financial services received in kind by individuals. Net purchases of used goods are also included.

Gross private domestic investment (A3) is fixed
capital goods purchased by private business and
nonprofit institutions and the value of the change
in the physical volume of inventories held by
private business. The former include all private
purchases of dwellings, whether purchased for
tenant or owner occupancy. Net purchases of used
goods are also included.

The national income and product accounts,
compiled by BEA, summarize both receipts and
final expenditures for the personal, business,
Government purchases of goods and services
foreign, and government sectors of the economy. (A4) is the compensation of government employees
Section Al shows the gross national product, and purchases from business and from abroad. It
final sales, and personal and disposable personal excludes transfer payments, interest paid by
income. The four major components of the gross government, and subsidies, It includes gross
national p r o d u c t — p e r s o n a l c o n s u m p t i o n investment by government enterprises but excludes
expenditures, gross private domestic investment, their current outlays. It includes net purchases of
government purchases of goods and services, and used goods and excludes sales and purchases of
net exports of goods and services—are presented in land and financial assets.
sections A2 through A5. Most of the series in
section A are presented in current as well as
Net exports of goods and services (AS) is exports
constant dollars. There are also a few per capita
series. The national income and product accounts, less imports of goods and services. Exports are part
briefly defined below, are described more fully in of the 'national production; imports are not, but are
the Survey of Current Business, Part I, included in the components of GNP and are
therefore deducted. More detail on U.S.
January 1976.
international transactions is provided in section E.
Gross national product (GNP) is the market
value of final goods and services produced by the
labor and property supplied by residents of the
United States, before deduction of allowances for
the consumption of fixed capital goods. It is the
most comprehensive measure of aggregate
economic output. Final sales is GNP less change in
business inventories.

National income (A6) is the incomes that
originate in the production of goods and services
attributable to labor and property supplied by
residents of the United States. Thus, it measures
the factor costs of the goods and services produced. It consists of the compensation of
employees, proprietors' income, rental income of
persons, corporate profits, and net interest.

Personal income is the income received by
persons (individuals, owners of unincorporated
businesses, nonprofit institutions, private trust
funds, and private noninsured welfare funds) from
all sources. It is the sum of wage and salary
disbursements, other labor income, proprietors'
income, rental income of persons, dividends,
personal interest income, and transfer payments,
less personal contributions for social insurance.

Saving (A7) is the difference between income
and expenditures during an accounting period.
Total gross saving includes personal saving,
business saving (mainly undistributed corporate
profits and capital consumption allowances), and
government surplus or deficit.

Disposable personal income is the personal
income available for spending or saving. It consists
of personal income less personal taxes and nontax
payments to government.

Shares of GNP and national income (AS).-The
major e x p e n d i t u r e c o m p o n e n t s of GNP
(consumption, investment, etc.) are expressed as
percentages of GNP, and the major income
components of national income (compensation of
employees, corporate profits, etc.) are expressed as
percentages of national income.

Section B. Prices, Wages, and Productivity
The important data on price movements include
the monthly consumer and wholesale price indexes
and their major components. Based largely on
these series are the quarterly price indexes from
the national income and product accounts, notably
the GNP implicit price deflator (with weights
reflecting the changing proportions of different
expenditure categories in GNP) and the fixedweighted price index for the gross business product. Data on both levels and percent changes are
presented for the period since 1968.
The group of series on wages and productivity
consists of data on average hourly earnings and
average hourly compensation (including earnings
and other benefits) in current and constant dollars,
output per hour of work in the business sector, and
rates of change for most of these measures.

The number of unemployed is subdivided into
selected categories defined by sex, age, and class
of worker. Also included are data on participation
rates for a few principal segments of the labor
force.

Section F. International Comparisons
Section D. Government Activities

Receipts, expenditures, and their balance
(surplus or deficit) are shown quarterly on two
levels: (1) Federal Government and (2) State and
local government. Defense series relating to obligations, contracts, and orders (monthly) and
purchases (quarterly) are also shown. (For a more
comprehensive picture of defense activities, see
Defense Indicators, a monthly BEA
publication.)

Section C. Labor Force, Employment, and
Unemployment

Section E. U.S. International Transactions

This section contains measures of the civilian
labor force and its major components: Total
numbers of employed and unemployed persons.

This group includes monthly series on exports
(excluding military aid) and general imports, plus a
few selected components of these aggregates. Also




shown are the balances between receipts and
expenditures for goods and services, merchandise,
and investment income.

This section is designed to facilitate a quick
review of basic economic conditions in six of the
nations with which we have important trade
relationships. The U.S. business cycle shading has
been omitted from these charts. Data on industrial
production, consumer prices, and stock prices for
Canada, the United Kingdom, France, West Germany, Japan, and Italy are compared with the corresponding U.S. series. Also included is an industrial production index for the European
countries in the Organization for Economic
Cooperation and Development (OECD). The industrial production series provide cyclically sensitive output measures for large parts of the
economies covered. Changes in consumer price indexes (plotted for the period since 1968) provide
important measures of the rates of inflation in the
major industrialized countries. Stock prices (also
shown beginning in 1968) tend to be significant as
leading indicators.

HOW TO READ CHARTS
Peak (P) of cycle indicates
end of expansion and beginning of recession (shaded
area) as designated by NBER.

Basic Data

Arabic number indicates latest
month for which data are
plotted. ("9" - September)

Solid line indicates monthly
data. (Data may be actual
monthly figures or moving
averages.)

Dotted line indicates anticipated data.

Broken line indicates actual
monthly data for series where
a moving average is plotted.

Roman number indicates
latest quarter for which data
are plotted. ("IV" = fourth
quarter)

Solid line with plotting points
indicates quarterly data.
Parallel lines indicates a break
in continuity (data not available, extreme value, etc.).

Diffusion Indexes

Solid line indicates monthly
data over 6- or 9-month
spans.
Broken line indicates monthly
data over 1-month spans.

Various scales are used to
highlight the patterns of the
individual series, "Scale A"
is an arithmetic scale, "scale
L-1" is a logarithmic scale
with 1 cycle in a given distance, "scale L-2" is a logarithmic scale with two cycles
in that distance, etc.
Arabic number indicates latest
month for which data are
used in computing the indexes.

Broken line with plotting
points indicates quarterly
data over 1-quarter spans,

Roman number indicates
latest quarter for which data
are used in computing the indexes.

Solid line with plotting points
indicates quarterly data over
various spans.
Diffusion indexes and rates
of change are centered within
the spans they cover.

Trough (T) of cycle indicates
end of recession and beginning of expansion as designated by NBER.

Rates of Change

Solid line indicates percent
changes over 3- or 6-month
spans.

Dotted line indicates anticipated quarterly data over
various spans.
Arabic number indicates latest
month used in computing
the changes.

Broken line indicates percent
changes over 1-month spans.

Broken line with plotting
points indicates
percent
changes over 1-quarter spans.

Solid line with plotting points
indicates percent changes over
3-or4-quarter spans.

Roman number indicates
latest quarter used in computing the changes.

HOW TO LOCATE A SERIES
1. See ALPHABETICAL INDEX-SERIES FINDING GUIDE at
the back of the report where series are arranged alphabetically
according to subject matter and key words and phrases of the
series titles, or™




2. See TITLES AND SOURCES OF SERIES at the back of
the report where series are listed numerically according to
series numbers within each of the report's sections.

Table 1. Summary of Recent Data and Current Changes for Principal Indicators
Basic data1
Series title

Timing
classifi*
cation3

Unit
of
measure

Percent change

Average
1976

Jan.
1977

3dQ

4th Q

1st Q

1977

1977

1978

Jan.
1978

Mar.
1978

Feb.
1978

Feb.

to

to

Feb.
1978

Mar.
1978

3dQ
to
4th Q

4th Q
to
IstQ

1977

1978

M

(.CYCLICAL INDICATORS
A. Composite Indexes
910. Twelve leading indicators
920. Four coincident indicators
930. Six lagging indicators
Leading Indicator Subgroups:
913. Marginal employment adjustments
914 Capital investment commitments
915. Inventory investment and purchasing
916. Profitability
917. Money and financial flows

L,L,L
C.C.C
Lg.Lg.Lg

1967=100 ..
do. . . .
do. ...

124.7
122.3
120.7

130.8
130.2
126.7

131.1
130.8
128.1

134.4
133.4
132.0

133.9
134.0
137.0

133.5
132.7
•135.3

134.2
133.8
137.3

134.1
135.6
138.3

0.5
0.8
1.5

98.2

0.1
0.9
0.7

-0.1

1.3
0.7

2.5
2.0
3.0

-0.4

1.5
1.9
0.2

-0.3
-0.3

L.L.L
L L'L
L.L.L
L LL
L.L.L

do. ...
do
do, . . ,
do
do. ...

Marginal Employment Adjustments:
*1. Average workweek, prod, workers, mfg
L,L,L
21. Avg. weekly overtime, prod, workers, mfg.2 . . L,C,L
2. Accession rate, per 100 employees, mfg.2 .... L,L,L
5. Avg. weekly initial claims (inverted4)
L,C,L
*3. Layoff rate, per 100 employ., mfg. (inv.4)2 . . L.L.L
4. Quit rate, per 100 employees, mfg.2
L,Lg,U

Hours
do. ...
Percent
Thousands. .
Percent
do. ...

40.0

3.1
3.9
384
1.3
1.7

3.4
4.0
371
1.2
1.9

3.3
3.8
383
1.3
1.8

3.5
4.1
351
1.0
1.9

3.7
4.0
340
0.9
2.0

3.5
4.0
331
0.9
1.9

4.0
4.0
370
0.9
2.0

3.7
4.0
320
0.9
2.0

1.0
0.5
0.0
-11.8
0.0
0.1

Job Vacancies:
60. Ratio, help-wanted advertising to persons
unemployed2
46 Help-wanted advertising

Ratio
1967=100...

0.390
95

0.517
118

0.535
121

0.608
134

0.674
139

0.660
138

0.679
139

0.683
141

0.019
0.7

0.004
1.4

0.073

A.r., bil. hrs..
Thousands. .
do. ...
do. . . .

151.48
84,188
79,443
23,332

156.53
87,302
82,140
24,232

157.08
87,613
82,548
24,359

158.58
88,761
83,192
24,497

159.14
89,748
84,091
24,739

157.64
89,527
83,719
24,593

158.98
89,761
84,055
24,729

160.80
89,956
84,498
24,896

0.8
0.3
0.4
0.6

1.1
0.2
0.5
0.7

1.0
1.3
0.8
0.6

Percent

56.06

57.11

57.16

57.71

58.11

58.07

58.08

58.18

Thousands . .
Percent
do. , . .
Weeks
Percent

7,288
7.7
4.5

6,855
7.0
3.9

6,736
6.9
3.9

6,554
6.6
3.8

6,155
6.2
3.5

6,226
6.3
3.5

6,090
6.1
3.6

6,148
6.2
3.4

15.8

14.3

13.9

13.8

12.6

13.1

12.5

12.3

96.2

106.7
102.0
108.1
107.9

96.9

96.2

111.8
102.7
107.8
111.8

112.3
102.7
109.3
112.1

40.3

40.3

97.6

97.3

96.8

96.9

114.4
102.9
107.1
114.3

114.1
104.1
104.2
111.2

113.3
103.7
104.5
113.6

114.3
104.4
104.1
111.1

40.5

40.0

39.6

40.0

114.8
104.1
104.0
109.0

-0.4
-2.2

1.3
0.4
-0.3
-0.1
-1.9

-2.0

2.0

0.4
3.8

1.2
-2.7
-2.7

91
92
93

91
91
91
91
91

B. Cyclical Indicators by Economic Process
B1. Employment and Unemployment

L,Lg,U
L,Lg,U

Comprehensive Employment:
48, Employee hours in nonagri. establishments . . . u.c.c
42, Persons engaged in nonagri. activities
u.c.c
*41. Employees on nonagri. payrolls
c,c,c
40. Employees in mfg., mining, construction
L.C.U
90, Ratio, civilian employment to total population of working age2
U,Lg,U
Comprehensive Unemployment:
37 Total unemployed (inverted4) .
L,Lg,U
43. Unemployment rate, total (inverted4)2
L,Lg,U
45. Avg. weekly insured unemploy-rate (inv.4)2 .. L,Lg,U
*91. Avg. duration of unemployment (inverted4) . . Lg,Lg,Lg
44. Unemploy. rate, 15 weeks and over (inv.4)2 . . Lg,Lg,Lg

2.5

2.0

1.9

1.8

1.6

1.7

1.6

40.5

1.5

0.01

2.2
0.2
-0.1

4.6
0.1

1.2
-0.3

0.0
13.5

0.0
0.0

0.10

0.5
0.2
0.3
8.4
0.3
0,1

10.7

0.55

0.2

0.2
1.6
0.1

0.7
0.8

1.0
2.3
2.6

2

-0.1

3.1
0.1
0.1

0.066
3.7

6
4

0.4
1.1
1.1
1.0

4
4
4
4

0.40

2.7
0.3
0.1
0.7
0.1

-1.0
-0.1

-1.2

6.1
0.4
0.3
8.7
0.2

9

3
4
4
9
4

82. Production and Income
Comprehensive Output and Income:
C,CC
50 GNP in 1972 dollars
C.C.C
52 Personal income in 1972 dollars
•51 . Pers. income less transfer pay., 1972 dollars . . C.C.C
53. Wages and salaries in mining, mfg., and conc,c,c
struction 1972 dollars
Industrial Production:
*47 Industrial production total ...
73 Industrial production durable mfrs
74. Industrial production, nondurable mfrs
49. Value of goods output, 1972 dollars
Capacity Utilization:
82. Capacity utilization rate, mfg., FRB 2
83 Capacity utilization rate mfg BEA2
84 Capacity utilization rate materials FRB2

c.c.c
C.C.C
C.L.L
C.C.C
L,C,U

LC U

A r bil dol
do
do. . . .

1274.7 1337.3 1347.4 1360.2 1358.3
1038.1 1 0 9 3 . 4 1095.3 1121.0 1122.3 1120.8 1119.1 1127.0
972.3
971.4
978.8
972.3 974.2
947.8
8 9 3 . 3 946.1

.-0.2
-0.1

do

221.8

234.0

235.2

238.7

240.4

238.0

239.9

243.4

0.8

1.5

1.5

1967=100. .
. ..do . .
do. . . .
A.r.,bildol.

129.8
121.7
140.9
580.1

137.1
129.5
148.1
613.1

138.4
131.5
149.2
617.0

139.3
132.8
150.2
624.4

139.5
132.4
150.9
615.9

138.6
130.9
149.8

139.0
131.9
150.6

141.0
134.3
152.2

0.3
0.8
0.5

1.4
1.8
1.1

0.7
1.0
0.7
1.2

Percent
do
do

80.2

82.4

80.4

81.9

Bil. dol

50.97
35.14
32.56

59.78
38.48
35.27

0.30

1.53

81

83

83.0

82
82. 3

82.9

82

-0.1

82.2

82.2

81.4

58.67
37.46
35.05

64.18
40.23
35.83

66.19
40.53
36.53

63.54
39.22
35.81

66.80
40.88
36.98

68.23
41.50
36.80

0.20

3.29

3.82

3.56

3.73

4.17

5
5
5

0.7

5

0.1

4
7
7
4

-0.3

0.5
-1.4

-0.7

0

NA

0.1
0.2

-0.1

-0.1

NA
-0.8

8
3
0

B3. Consumption, Trade, Orders, and
Deliveries
Orders and Deliveries:
L,L,L
6. New orders, durable goods
L,L,L
7 New orders durable goods 1972 dollars
*8. New orders, cons, goods and mtts., 1972 dol. . UL;L
L,L,L
25. Chg. in unfilled orders, durable goods2
L,Lg,U
96 Mfrs ' unfilled orders durable goods5
L.L.L
*32 Vendor performance2
...
Consumption and Trade:
C,C,C
56 Manufacturing and trade sales
*57. Manufacturing and trade sales, 1972 dollars . . c,c,c
C,L,C
75. Industrial production, consumer goods
C.L.U
54. Sales of retail stores
U.UU
59 Sales of retail stores 1972 dollars
L.C.C
55, Personal consumption expend., autos
L.L.L
58 Index of consumer sentiment @)

do
do .
do. ...
Bil. do)., EOP
Percent
Bil. dol

do. . . .
1967=100...
Mil dol
do. ...
A.r., bil. dol.
1 Q 1966=100

5.1
4.2
3.3
0.17

2.1
1.5
-0.5
0.44

9.4
7.4
2.2
3.09

1 6 6 . 4 4 184.83 174.97 184.83 1 9 6 . 2 9 1 8 8 . 4 0 192.12 1 9 6 . 2 9
64
67
62
55
54
55
54
58

2.0
9

2.2
3

5.6
-4

236.62
NA
NA
144.17
143.8
146.8
61,692 6 2 , 8 4 7
41,825 4 2 , 4 0 7

3.5
2.7
1.6
3.0
2.4

NA
NA
2.1
1.9
1.4

3.7
2.3
0.2
4.4
3.4
1.4

199.77
133.47
136.2
53,542
39,813
55.0
85.4

222.93
141.17
143.4
58,924
41,604
63.9
86.8

223.03
141,04
145.0
58,862
41,187
62.3
87.6

NA 2 2 8 . 6 1
231.39
NA 1 4 0 . 3 7
144.31
144.0
141.5
145.3
61,473 61,471 5 9 , 8 7 5
4 2 , 5 9 1 41,691 4 0 , 8 4 2
63.2
83.1

63.0
82.3

8*3!?

84.' 3

78.* 8*

0*7

-6*5*

135.6

NA
NA

0.5

NA
NA

-5.1

3.1
0.7
2.0
0.53

6.2
8

NA
NA
-0.9

0.0
-2.1
-0.3
-1.0

2
9
3

5
5
7
5
5
5
5

B4. Fixed Capital Investment
Formation of Business Enterprises:
*12. Net business formation
13. New business incoroorations




L,L,L
L,L,L

1967=100...
Number. . . .

133.4
117.6 127.4
128.9
31,244 36,509 37,695 38,987

NA
134.9
NA 3 6 , 4 3 1

NA

NA

3.5
3.4

NA
NA

1
1

Table 1. Summary of Recent Data and Current Changes for Principal Indicators—Continued

Series title

Timing
classifi
cation3

Percent change

Average

Jan,
1977

4th Q

1st Q

1977

1978

Jan.
1978

Pel).

Feb.

to

to

Fcb,
1978

Mar.
1978

21.0

11.5

-7.5

14.42
17.88

13.4
17.7

10.9

8.3

-7.1
-1.0

10.82

11.41

11.3

5.5

-0.6

83.03

67.86

71.9

-18.3

1978

1976

1977

15.2

18.2

18.3

19.1

21.41

20.42

22.76

10.8
12.4

12.1
15.2

12.1
14.8

12.4
16.3

13.61
17.36

13.00
16.51

10.70

11.19

68.5

74.28
NA
NA

Ma'.
1978

s

3dQ
to
4th Q

4tri Q
to
1st Q

19??

1978

Series num"

Basic data1
Unit
of
measure

I. CYCLICAL INDlCATORS-Con.
B4. Fixed Capital Investment— Con.
Business Investment Commitments:
1 0. Contracts and orders, plant and equipment . . L,L.l Bil. dol
*2Q. Contr, and orders, plant and equip.,
.....do. ...
1972 do!
UL.L
do. . . .
24. New orders, cap, goods Indus., nondefense ..
L,L,L
27. New orders, capital goods industries, nondedo. ...
fonse, 1872 dollars
L,L,L
0. Construction contracts, commercial and industrial buildings, floor space
L,C,U Mil. sq.ft. ..
1 1. New capital appropriations, mfg
U,lg,U Bil. dol
97. Backlog of capital appropriations, rnfg.s
C.Lg.Lg Bil. dol., EOF
Business Investment Expenditures:
61. Business expend., new plant and equipment .
BO. Machinery and equipment sales and business
construction expenditures
76. Industrial production business equip.
86. Nonresid. fixed investment, total, 1972 dol. .
Residential Construction Commitments and
Investment:
28. New private housing units started, total
*29. New building permits, private housing
89. Fixed investment, residential, 1972 dol

8.8

10,2

9.8

51.4
12.4
47.5

62.9
16,2
57.2

65.7
17.6
54.2

C,Lg,Lg A.r.,bil.dol.

120.4

137.0

140.3

138.11 1 4 6 . 2 5

do. ...
C,Lg,L.g
C ( Lg,U 1967-100...
C.L8.C A.r., bil. dol.

171.2
195.5
136.3
149.
116.8
126.8

199.9

206.43
153.4
128.9

L.L.L
L,L,L
L.L.L

A.r., thous. .
1967-100...
A.r., bil. dol.

1,538
112.2

1,987
144.4

47.7

56.9

1,1,1

do. ...

8.5

L(L(L
L.L.,1
L,L,L

do. ...
do. ...
Bil. dol

151.

127.6

2,041
146.7
57.

17.65
57.2

6.0

4.1
2.1

20
24

8.2

4.6

21

4.2

8.3
NA
NA

9
11
9?

5.9

61

m

69
76
86

5.7

-1.6

156.

2.3
1.2

2,146
159.5

1,732
134.4

2,07
144.

1.7
1.0

59.9

59.0

1,548
128.9

1,574
130.2

NA

NA
1.2

31.8
10.7

10

9.6
5.9

10.3

-0.2

NA 2 0 6 . 0 2 210.84
154.8
152.9
154.8
129.4

12.0

3.2
1.3
1.0

5.1
8.7
4.2

0.9
0.4

-19.3
-.15.7
-1.5

28
2§
89

BS. Inventories and Inventory investment
Inventory Investment:
30. Chg. in business inventories, 1972 dol,2
*36. Change in inventories on hand and on order,
1972 dollars (smoothed6}2
31. Chg. in book value, mfg. and trade invent2 ..
38. Chg. in mtl. stocks on hand and on order2 . . .
Inventories on Hand and on Order:
71. Mfg, and trade inventories, total5
*70. Mfg. and trade invent., total, 1972 do!.s
6Ei, Mfrs.' inventories of finished goods*
77. Ratio, inventories to sales, mfg. and trade,
constant dollars2
78. Materials and supplies, stocks on hand and on
order8

8.10
24.5
0.52

11.8

15.7

11.53

14.34

26.3
0.88

26.4
0.41

8.7

12.19
12.5
0.90

11.3

MA
MA
NA

11.74
31.2
1.33

9.85
25.0
1.60

NA

-1.89

NA

-6.2
0.27

m

NA
NA
SA

-7.0

2.6

30

-2.15
-13.9

NA
WA
HA

n

0.49

36
38

Lg.Lg.Lg Bil.doUEOP 3 0 6 . 3 2 3 3 2 . 6 4 3 2 9 . 5 1 3 3 2 . 6 4
do. . . . 2 2 5 . 9 0 2 3 6 . 4 7 2 3 5 . 3 6 2 3 6 . 4 7
L.g,lg,Lg
do. ...
54.11 58.91
Lg,M3,Lg
57.97
58.91

NA 3 3 5 . 7 6 3 3 8 . 2 5
WA 2 3 7 . 4 4 2 3 7 . 9 6
NA
59.68
S9.57

NA
NA
N&

-0.2

MA
&A
NA

Lg.Lg.Lg Ratio

NA

1.65

WA

-0.04

NA

-0.02

NA

77

NA 1 4 4 . 2 3 1 4 5 . 8 3

NA

NA

1.9

WA

78

-0.41

0.6?*
1.6

0.78

-4.2

-4.9

19

tJA
PA
NA
MA
MA
-2.2

16
18
79

ao
ir*
n

NA
NA

34
35

1.3

4.3

63

1.6
2.1

NA
4.3

6li
62

0.1

NA

64

Ug,lg Bil. dol., EOP

1.67

1.65

1.66

1.64

1 3 2 . 4 0 1 4 2 . 9 0 140.21 142.90

1.69

0.7
0.2

1.1

1.0
0. 5
1.6

MA
NA

m

71
70
65

B6. Prices, Costs, and Profits
Sensitive Commodity Prices:
*92. Chg. in sensitive prices (smoothed6)2
23. Industrial materials prices®

L,L,L
U,L,L

Percent
1967=100...

1.17

0.69

0.06

0.71

1.49

1.60

1.64

200.7

210.4

203.2

206.5

219.8

219.7

219.9

219.8

Stock Prices:
*19. Stock prices, 500 common stocks®

LL,L

194143=10.

102.01

98.20

98.05

93.95

89.35

90.25

88.90

88.82

UUL
1,1,1

92.1
67.5
63.3
46.8

102.5

103.6

105.0

71.3
49.5

71.5
79.7
55.4

71.3
71.5
49.0

5.4
123.1

5.3
122.9

5.0
123.7

5.4
122.6

NA
NA
MA
WA
NA
119.9

153.5
109.0

166.1
111.5

167.0
111.2

169.0
110.4

NA
MA

168.7

179.0

179.7

182.1

189.9

0.890

0.947
154.7

0.949
154.7

0.964
158.0

NA
164.8

76/0

76.0

75.8

75.9

Profits and Profit Margins:
1 6. Corporate profits after taxes
18. Corp. profits after taxes, 1972 dollars .......
79. Corp. profits after taxes, with 1 VA and CCA . .
00
do
in 197? dol
16. Profits (after taxes} per dol. of sales, mfg,2 ...
17. Ratio, price to unit labor cost mfg

UUL

A.r., bil. dol.
.....do. ...
do. ...
do. , . .
Cents
1967=100...

Cash Flows:
34. Net cash flow, corporate
35. Net cash flow, corporate, 1072 dollars

UUL
UUL

A.r., bil. do!.
. . . .do. , . .

UC.I

L.C.L
UL.L

Unit Labor Costs and Labor Share:
63. Unit labor cost, private business sector ...... Lg.Lg.Lg 1967-100...
68. Labor cost (cur, dol.) per unit of gross
domestic product (1972), nonfin. corp
Lg.Lg.Lg Dollars
*Q2. Labor cost per unit of output, mfq
Lg.Lg.Lg 1967=100. . .
64. Compensation of employees as percent of
national income2
Lg.Lg.Lg 3ercent

145.4

70. 7

1.23

0.04

0.1

-1.4

0.0

-0.2

1.4
-0.3

-10.3
-11.6
0.4
120.1

119.8

119.7

-D.2

-0.1

-0.9

1.2
-0 . 1

163.2

165.0

156.1

1.1

0.7

NA

6.4

92
23

B7. Money and Credit
Mooey:
85. Change in money supply {M1 } 2
102, Change in money supply plus time deposits at
commercial ba.nks (M2)2
*104. Chg. in total liquid assets (M7) (smoothed6)2 .
*1Q5. Money supply (M1), 1972 dollars
108. Money supply (M2), 1972 dollors

UUL

Percent. . . .

0.50

0.62

0.75

0.51

0.33

D.80

-0.09

0.29

-0.89

0.38

-0.24

-O.ld

35

UC.U

. . . .do. . . .
. . . .do. . . .
Bil. dol
....do. ...

0.90
0.85

0.74
0.93

0.84
0.88

0.58
1.09

0.52
0.92

0.37
0.92

-0.37
-0.11

-0.26

225.0
537.1

0.44
0.81

0.07

223.6
517.1

0.74
1.03

225.5
539.4

226.9
543.9

-0.11

0.21

225.3
542.1

226.8
543.7

-0.06
-0.17

225.2
542.2

224.0
540.3

-0.7
-0.3

-0.5
-0.4

0.6
0.8

-0.7
-0.3

102
104
105
106

Velocity of Money:
107, Ratio, GNP to money supply (Ml} 2
c.c.c
108. Ratio, pers. income to money supply (M2)2 . . C.Lg,C

Ratio
. . . .do. . , .

5.607
1.965

5.795
1.974

5.816
1.966

5.851
1.994

5.870
2.004

1.998

2.000

2.014

0.002

0.014

0 .019
0.010

107
108

Credit Flows:
33. Change in mortgage debt2
1 1 2. Change in business loans2
113. Change in consumer installment debt2
110. Total private borrowing

A.r., bil. dol.
....do. ...
. . . .do. . . .
. . . .do. . . ,

53.34
81.05
85.64
89.97
-4.40
8.68
6.11
9.37
19.98
30.77
29.86
32.86
199.25 279.14 297.80 2 8 7 . 0 4

NA
19.25
MA
NA

81.90
11.93
29.09

76.45
24.70
31.93

NA
21.12
NA

-5.45
12.77

WA

33
112
113
110




UUL
UUL
L,L,L

UUL
UL.L

UUL
UL.L

0.035

2.84

MA

-3.58
NA

o . o2a
4.33
3.26
3.0D

= 3.6

9.88

MA

SA

Basic data1
Series title

Timing
classification3

Unit
of
measure

Percent change

Average
1976

Jan.
1977

3dQ

4th Q

1st Q

1977

1977

1978

Jan.
1978

Feb.
1978

Mar.
1978

Feb.

to

to

Feb.
1978

Mar.
1978

3dQ
to
4th Q

4th Q
to
1st Q

1977

1978

Series number

I

Table 1. Summary of Recent Data and Current Changes for Principal Indicators —Continued

I. CYCLICAL INDICATORS-Con.
B7. Money and Credit-Con.
Credit Difficulties:
14. Liabilities of business failures (inv.4)®
39. Delinquency rate, instal. loans (inv.4}2 s

L,L,L
L.L.L

Mil.dol
Percent, EOP

Bank Reserves:
93 Free reserves (inverted4)2©
94. Borrowing from the Federal Reserve2 ©

L,U,U
L,Lg,U

Mil.dol
do. . . .

Interest Rates:
119 Federal funds rate3©
1 14, Treasury bill rate2©
115. Treasury bond yields2©
1 16. Corporate bond yields2®
117. Municipal bond yields2®
118. Mortgage yields, residential2 ®
67. Bank rates on short-term bus. loans2©
*109. Average prime rate charged by banks2©
Outstanding Debt:
66. Consumer installment debt5
*72. Commercial and industrial loans outstanding,
weekly reporting large comm. banks
*95. Ratio, consumer install, debt to pers. income2

L,Lg,Lg Percent
do.
C,Lg,lg
do.
C,Lg,Lg
do.
lg,Lg,Lg
do.
U,Lg,Lg
do.
Lg,Lg,Lg
do.
Lg,Lg,Lg
do.
Lg.Lg.Lg

.. .
...
.. .
...
. ..
.. .
...

2 5 0 . 9 4 2 5 7 . 9 4 3 3 7 . 6 9 161.43
2.40
2.36
2.36
2.36

134
84
5.05
5.00
6.78
8.59
6.64
8.82
7.52
6.84

-253

462
5.54
5.26
7,06
8.20
5.68
8.68
7.97
6.82

-434

680
5.82
5.47
6.98
8.10
5.59
8.73
8.02
6.90

-690

906
6.51
6.14
7.16
8.29
5.57
8.82
8.59
7.67

NA
NA

-161

410

6.76

6.41
7.58
8.70
5.65

NA
NA
7.98

NA
NA

-176

481
6.70
6.45
7.51
8.70
5.71
9.11

NA
7.93

NA
NA

-272

405
6.78
6.46
7.60
8.70
5.62

NA
NA
8.00

NA
NA

NA
NA

-36
344

96
-76

6.79
6.32
7.63
8.70
5.61
9.29

NA
8.00

NA

Lg,Lg,Lg Bil.dol.,EOP

179.93 210.70 2 0 2 . 4 8 210.70

Lg,Lg,Lg Bil.dol
Lg,Lg,Lg Percent

116.36 121.66 122.45 124.97 1 2 8 . 4 4 126.48 128.54 130.30

12.33

12.76

12.91

12.97

1972-100...
1967=100...
Percent
1967-100. . .

133.9
170.5
0.4
180.8

141.3
181.5
0.5
192.2

142.2
183.3
0.4
194.2

do.
do.
do,
do.
do.

183.0
205.1
189.3
173.2
169.0

194.2
214.3
201.7
184.5
178.9

194.9
207.3
202.8

do. ...

185.0

198.5

200.2

do.
do.
do.
do.

108.5
192.6
113.0
116.5

109.4

109.3
211.3
115.4
120.2

NA 213.12 2 1 5 . 7 8

NA

13.11

13.22

144.2
185.3
0.4
195.9

146.7
188.4
0.7
201.5

187.1
0.8
199.0

197.1
213.0
205.1
190.0
181.8

201.9

199.9
221.6

0.08
0.01
0.09

0.0
-0.09
NA
NA
0.07

NA
NA

-236

-61

0.01

-0.14
0.03

0.0
-0.01
NA
NA
0.0

1.2

NA

1.6

1.4
NA

NA

0.11

188.4
0.6
201.4

189.7
0.8

-0.2

204.0
203.8
232.4

207.8

202.0
228.7
209.7

193.3
185.9

192.0
184.0

193.3
186.3

211,3
194.5
187.3

204.2

208.9

208.1

208.6

209.9

110.2
215.5
116.2
120.8

110.6

111.0

110.5

110.3

52.2

0.0

NA
NA

1
3

-529
-496

9
9

-0.02

0.25
0.27
0.42
0.41
0.08

0.09
0.57
0.77

0.31

11
11
11
11
11
11
6
10

256
226

0.69
0.67
0.18
0.19

NA
NA

4.1

NA

6

2.1

2.8
NA

7
9

0.06

II. OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC
MEASURES
B. Prices, Wages, and Productivity
B1 . Price Movements
310.
320.
320c.
322
330.
331
332
333.
334

Implicit price deflator, GIMP
Consumer prices (CPI), all items©
Change in CPI, all items, S/A2
CPI, food
Wholesale prices (WPI), all commodities®. . .
WPI, crude materials
WPI, intermediate materials
WPI, producer finished goods
WPI consumer finished goods

...
...
.. .
.. .
...

185.4
179.8

227.6
209.6

1.2

0.7
0.2
1.3

1.4
1.1
0.0
0.9

1.7
1.7
0.3
2.9

31
32
32
32

1.1
3.2
0.9
0.7
1.2

0.9
1.6
0.8
0.6
0.5

1.1
2.7
1.1
2.5
1.1

2.4
6.9
2.2
1.7
2.3

33
33
33
33
33

2.0

2.3

34

0.8
2.0
0.7
0.5

0.4
3.2
NA

34
34
34
37

0.7

B2. Wages and Productivity
340, Average hourly earnings, production workers,
private nonfarm economy
341 . Real average hourly earnings, production
workers, private nonfarm economy
345. Average hourly compensation, nonfarm bus. . .
346. Real avg. hourly cornp., nonfarm business .,,
370. Output per hour, private business sector

...
.. .
.. .
...

209.6

115.4
119.3

0.2
-0.5

0.6
-0.2

222.4

NA
119.7

-0.9

C. Labor Force, Employment, and
Unemployment
441 .
442.
37.
444.
445.
446.
Labor
451
452.
453

Total civilian labor force
Total civilian employment
Number of persons unemployed
Unemployed males, 20 years and over
Unemployed females, 20 years and over
Unemployed persons, 16-19 years of age

Thousands. .
do. ...
do. . . .
do, . . .
do. . . .
do. ...

Force Participation Rates:
Males, 20 years and over 2
Females, 20 years and over 2
Both sexes, 16-19 years of age2

9 4 , 7 7 4 9 7 , 4 0 1 9 7 , 5 5 9 9 8 , 6 2 2 9 9 , 2 0 5 99,107 9 9 , 0 9 3 99,414
8 7 , 4 8 5 9 0 , 5 4 6 9 0 , 8 2 3 9 2 , 0 6 9 9 3 , 0 5 0 92,881 93,003 93,266
7,288
6,554
6,855
6,736
6,155
6,148
6,226
6,090
3,041 2,727 2,594 2,522 2 , 4 2 4 2 , 4 8 0 2,383 2,409
2,546
2,487
2,498
2,461
2,153
2,247
2 , 0 8 5 2,127

1,701

1,642

1,643

1,570

1,578

1,499

1,622

1,612

Percent
do. ...
do. . . .

79.8
47.0
54.6

79.7
48.1
56.2

79.4
48.2
56.6

79.9
48.6
57.0

79.9
49.0
56.7

80.0
48.9
56.9

79.8
48.9
56.5

79.9
49.1
56.7

A.r.,bil.dol.
do. . . .
do. . . .
do. . . .
do. ...
do. ...

-54.0

386.3
446.3

-49.5

264.7
246.2
18.4

294.4
265.2
29.2

NA
451.6
NA
NA
280.1
NA

Mil.dol
do. . . .
Bil. do!
A.r.,bil.dol.

8,998
4,096
2.48
86.8

0.0
0.1
-2.2
-3.9
-7,2

8.2

-0.2

0.0
-0.4

0.3
0.3
1.0
1.1
2.0
-0.6

0.1
0.2
0.2

1.1
1.4
-2.7
-2.8
-1.5
-4.4

0.5
0.4
0.4

0.6
1.1
-6.1
-3.9

-12.5
0.5
0.0
0.4
-0.3

44
44
3
44
44
44

45
45
45

D. Government Activities
D1. Receipts and Expenditures
501 . Federal Government receipts
502. Federal Government expenditures
500, Federal Government surplus or deficit2
51 1 . State and local government receipts
512. State and local government expenditures
510 State and local govt. surplus or deficit2

332.3
386.3

373.9
423.4

373.2

432.1
-58.9
301.6

-60.0
307.1

268.7
32.9

276.0
31.1

3.5
3.3
-1.1

1.8
2.7
-1.8

NA
1.2
NA
NA
1.5
NA

50
50
50
51
51
51

NA
NA
-16.1
0.7

51
52
54
56

3.3
NA
NA
6.8
NA
NA

60
60
60
61
61
61

D2. Defense Indicators
516.
525
548.
564.

Defense Department obligations, total
Military prime contract awards in U.S
New orders, defense products
National defense purchases

9,840

9 , 7 2 3 10,117

4,571

4,501

5,183

2.87
94.3

2.23
95.6

4.09
98.5

NA 10,641 10,413
NA 4 , 5 4 9 3,981
3.43
99.2

3.07

2.78

NA
NA
4.44

-2.1

-12.5
-9.4

NA
NA
59.7

4.1
15.2
83.4

3.0

E. U.S. International Transactions
E1 . Merchandise Trade
602.
604.
606.
612
614.
616.

Exports, total except military aid
Exports of agricultural products
Exports of nonelectrical machinery
General imports, total
Imports of petroleum and products
Imports of automobiles and parts




Mil.dol.
do.
do.
do.
do.
do.

...
.. .
...
.. .
...
. ..

9 , 5 7 2 10,101 10,365

1,925
1,838

1,985
1,852

1,947
1,909

9 , 9 5 2 1 0 , 2 8 3 10,014

1,840
1,801

NA
NA

NA
NA

9 , 9 2 2 10,912

NA
NA

NA
NA

1 0 , 0 4 4 1 2 , 3 0 7 1 2 , 4 4 4 1 2 , 6 5 0 13,508 1 2 , 3 9 3 1 4 , 4 3 9 13,693
2,658 3,462
3,440
3,370
NA
NA
NA
NA
1,096 1,323 1,357
1,457
NA
NA
NA
NA

-0.9

NA
NA
16.5

NA
NA

10.0

NA
NA
-5.2

NA
NA

-4.0
-5.5
-5.7

1.7
-2.0

7.4

Table 1. Summary of Recent Data and Current Changes for Principal Indicators -Continued
Basic data1
Unit
of
measure

Series title

Average

Percent change

4th Q

IstQ

2dQ

3dQ

4th Q

IstQ

1976

1977

1977

1977

1977

1978

1975

1976

1977

26,772
24,511
2,261
4,332
2,844
36,900
32,860
4,041

28,674
31,004
-2,330
5,342
2,890
40,817
39,918
899

30,118
37,928
-7,810
6,235
3,251
44,140
47,993
-3,853

29,711
33,305
-3,594
5,421
2,997
42,243
42,580

1202.1
1528.8
1212.0
1084.4
857.3
5,629
4,014

1274.7
1706.5
1266.2
1185.8
890.3
5,923
4,137

1337.3
1889.6
1325.5
1309.2
930.9
6,167
4,293

1287.4
1755.4
1289.2
1222.6
901.5
5,965
4,177

&

2<J Q
to
3dQ

3dQ
to
4th Q

4th Q
to
IstQ

1977

1977

1978

§
1

II, OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC
MEASURES-Con.
E2. Goods and Services Movements Except
Transfers Under Military Grants
818,
020.
62?,
881.
65?.
B68.
669.
607.

Merchandise exports
Merchandise imports
Merchandise trade balance2
Income on U.S. investments abroad
Income on foreign investment in the U.S
Exports of goods and services
Imports of goods and services
Balance on goods and services2

Mil. dol

... do
do
do
do
. . . . do
do
do

-337

29,457
36,606
-7,149
6,074
2,887
43,015
46,133
-3,118

30,655
38,309
-7,654
6,599
3,160
44,960
48,320
-3,360

30,870
38,429
-7,559
6,391
3,225
45,447
48,436
-2,989

29,490
38,369
-8,879
5,876
3,733
43,136
49,082
-5,946

1311.0
1810.8
1301.2
1252.4
908.4
6,064
4,202

1330.7
1869.9
1317.5
1292.5
924.5
6,143
4,268

1347.4
1915.9
1331.8
1323.8
934.4
6,207
4,305

1360.2
1961.8
1351.5
1368.3
9!>5.8
6,253
4,394

NA
NA
NA '
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA

0.7
-4.5
0.3
-0.2
95 - 1 , 3 2 0
-3.2

-8.1

2.1
15.8
-5.1
1.1
0.2
1.3
371 - 2 , 9 5 7

NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA

618
620
622
651
652
663
669
667

A. National Income and Product
A1. GNPand Personal Income
SO.
200.
213.
224
22S.
217.
227.

GNP in 1Q72 dollars
GNP in current dollars
Final sales, 1972 dollars
Disposable personal income, current dollars . . .
Disposable personal income, 1872 dollars
Per capita GNP in 1972 dollars
Per capita disposable pers. income, 1972 dol. . .

A.r.bil dol
. . . . do
.do
do
..
do
A.r., dollars
do

1358.3
1992.9
1346.9
1400.5
958,9
6,234
4,401

1.3
2.5
1,1
2.4
1.1
1.0
0.9

1.0
2.4
1.5
3.4
2.3
0.7
2.1

0.7

2.3
3.7
3.1
1.0
3.3
4,7
3.8
2.5

-0.1

1.6
-Q.3

2.4
0.3
-0.3

0.2

50
200
213
224
225
217
227

A2, Personal Consumption Expenditures
231.
233
238
239
230
232
236
237

Total, 1072 dollars
Durable cjoods 1972 dollars
Nondurable goods, 1972 dollars
Services 1972 dollars
Total current dollars
Durable goods current dollars.
Nondurable qeods, current dollars
Services, current dollars

A.r., bil. dol
.do ...
. . . do . . .
. do
do
, do
.do ...
do

775.1
821..3
861.2
839.8
850.4
854.1
860.4
879.8
879.2
112.7
127.5
138.2
130.7
136.9
137.9
136.5
141.6
137.6
307.6
321.6 * 3 3 3 . 7
329.4
329.7
330.0
332.4
342.7
339.2
354.8 372.2
389.2
379.7
383.8
391.4
386.3
395.5
402.3
9 8 0 . 4 1 0 9 4 . 0 1211.2 1139.0 1 1 7 2 . 4 1194.0 1218.9 1 2 5 9 . 5 1 2 8 4 . 0
132.9
158.9
179.8
166.3
177.0
178.6
177.6
186.0 184.0
409.3
442.7
480.7
474.4
458.8
466.6
481.8
499.9 505.8
438.2
492.3
550.7
513.9
541.1
528.8
559.5 573.7
594.3

-1.0

0.7
1.3
2.1
-0.6

1.6
3.4

-0.1
-2.8
-1.0

1.7
1.9
-1.1

1.2
3.6

231
233
238
239
230
232
236
237

A3. Gross Private Domestic Investment
?41
243
30
240.
242.
245.

Total* 1972 dollars
..
Total fixed investment 1972 dollars
Change in business inventories, 1972 do!.2 . . .
Total, current dollars
Total fixed investment, current dollars
Chg. in bus. inventories, current dol.2

do
do
. . do
. . . do
do
do

141.6
151.5
-9.9

189.1
200.6
-11.5

173.0
164.5
8.5
243.3
230.0

195.5
183.7

169.2
171.0

11.8

-1.8

294.2
276.1

13.3

264.4

197.2
184.0

200.8
185.1

13.2

15.7

243.4
244.3

186.7
177.0
9.7
271.8
258.0

294.9
273.2

18.2

-0.9

13.8

271.1
101.4
169.7
395.0
145.4
249.6

264.6

263.3

97.1

97.0

167.5
370.0
134.2
235.8

166.4
374.9
136.3
238.5

96.9
83.1
13.8

96.9
86.3
10.6

199.7
188.4

303.6
280.0

197.5
188.7
8.7
306.7
293.2

21.7

23.6

13.5

270.0
101.1
168.9
390.6
143.6
247.0

274.0
103.3
170.7
400.9
148.1
252.9

98.5
89.1

99.8
87.6
12.2

16.5

1.8
0.6
2.3
3.0
2.5
1.9

1.0
4.7
-10.1

277.0
104.2
172.8
413.8
153.8
260.0

274.9
102.1
172.8
417.1
153.1
264.1

1.5
2.2
1.1
2.6
3.1
2.4

1,1
0.9
1,2
3.2
3.8
2,8

94.8
88.9

97.1
92.6

5.9
170.6
188.8
-18.2

4.5
178.3
200.8
-22.6

11.3

314.4
297.9

-1.6

1.9
-7.0

1.1
-0.2

2,6
2.5
1.6
3.0

241
243
30
240
242
245

A4. Government Purchases
of Goods and Services
?61
2B3,
267
2RO
262
286.

Total, 1972 dollars
Federal Government, 197? dollars
State and local governments, 1972 dollars
Total eutfsnt dollars
....
Fodoral Government, current dollars , ,
State and local governments, current dollars . . .

..

do
do
do
do
do
do

...

263.0
96.7

96.5

166.3
338.9
123.3
215.6

167.9
361.4
130.1
231.2

89.9
67.4
22.5

95.8
79.8
16.0

147.3
126.9

162.9
155.1
7.8

-0.8
-2.0

0.0
0.8
-0.5

1.6

261
263
267
260
262
263

AS. Foreign Trade
256.
257,
256.
252
263.
250.

Exports of goods and services, 1972 dollars . . ,
Innportsof goodsandssrviees, 1972 dollars ...
Net exports of goods and serv., 1972 dol.2
Exports of goods and services, current do!
Imports of goods and services, current dol. . . ,
Wet exports of pods and sfirv., current dol.2 . .

.

do
do
do
do
do
do

.

20.4

97.5
88.0

9.5
174.7
185.6
-10.9

168.5
165.6
3.0

170.4
178.6

9.4
178.1
187.7

179.9
187.4

-8.2

-9.7

-7,5

1.3
-1.7

2.8
1.0
-0.2

2.2

-5.0

1.5
-$.3
-5.2

0,7
-10.7

2.4
4.2
-1.4

4.5
6.4
-4.4

256
25?
255

as2
253
250

A6. National Income and Its Components
22Q
280
282.
286.
284.
288.

National income
.
. . .
Compensation of employees
Proprietors' income with IVA and CCA .
Corporate profits with IVA and CCA
Rental income of persons with CCA
Net interest

do
do
do
. do
do . . .
d0

1217.0 1 3 6 4 . 1 1 5 2 0 . 5 1 4 0 2 . 1 1 4 5 0 . 2 1 5 0 5 . 7 1 5 4 0 . 5 1 5 8 5 . 7
NA
9 3 0 . 3 1 0 3 6 . 3 1156.3 1 0 7 4 . 2 1109.9 1 1 4 4 . 7 1167.4 1 2 0 3 . 3 1 2 4 2 . 5
86.0
88,0
98.2
88.7
95.1
95.5
97.0
105.0
102.4
99.3
128.1
125.4
139.8
123.1
140.2
149.0
144.8
NA
22.3
79.1

23.3
88.4

25.3

100.9

24.1
92.0

24.5
95.3

24.9
98.9

25.5

26.4

26.9

103.1

106.1

109.4

2.3
2.0
-1.5

2.9
3.1
9.9

6.3
2.4
4.2

-2.8

2.6
6.1
7.0
-11.1
0.2

-1.2
-1.4

3.5
2.9

NA
1.9
3.1

220
280
282
286
284
288

NA
NA
8.5
NA
0.3

290
295
292
298
293

NA
3.3
-2.5

A7. Saving
?90,
295
292.
290.
?93

Gross saving (private and govt )
Business savintj
Personal saying
Government surplus or deficit2
Personal saving rato 3

do
do
. . . do ..
. . . do . . .
Percent

195.1
179.2

237.0
206.6

273.5
226.5

232.2
205.3

251.4
211.5

277.2
223.6

284.5
237.2

281.0
233.8

80.2

65.9

67.3

56.3

51.4

68.5

73.3

76.1

-64.3
7.4

-35.6
5.6

-20.3
5.1

-29.4
4.6

-11.5
4.1

-14.9
5.3

-26.0
3.5

-28.9
5.6

NA
NA
82.6

NA
5.9

3.8
-2.9

0.1

NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except tor those indicated by <§>, which appear to contain no seasonal movement. Series indicated by an asterisk (*) are included in the major composite indexes. Dollar values are in
current dollars flnless otherwise specified. For complete series titles (including composition of the composite indexes) and sources, see 'Titles and Sources of Series" at the back of BCD. NA ° not available, a ° anticipated
EQP - end of period. A.r. - annual rate. S/A = seasonally adjusted fused for special emphasis}. IVA = inventory valuation adjustment. CCA = capital consumption adjustment. NIA =• national income accounts.
1
For a few series, data shown here have been rounded to fewer digits than those shown elsewhere in BCD. Annual figures published by the source agencies are used if available.
3
Differences rather than percent changes are shown for this series.
'The three-part timing code indicates the timing classification of the series at peaks, at troughs, and at all turns: L = leading; C = roughly coincident; Lg = lagging; U = unclassified.
4
Inverted series. Since this series tends to move counter to movements in general business activity, signs of the changes are reversed.
s
Knd'Of'poriod series. The annual figures (and quarterly figures for monthly series) are the last figures for the period.
6
This series is a weighted 4-term moving average (with weights 1, 2, 2, 1) placed at the terminal month of the span.

10



CYCLICAL
!A I

COMPOSITE INDEXES AND THEIR COMPONENTS

Chart Al. Composite Indexes
P

.) (fe.)
t

T

150-

Index of twelve leading indicators (series 1, 3, 8, 12, 18( 20, 29, 32, 36, 92, 104r 105)

_

-„
-4

,

^

130120-

ttH
100*

SCs-2

920. Index of four roughly coincident indicators (series 41,47,51,57)

930, Index of six lagging indicators (series 62, 70, 72, 91,95,109)
SO8370-

60-

+3

^V

50-

+5

194S 40 S0 §1 52 S3 g4 S^ g§ S7 it gf it 03
NOTE: Numbers entered on the chart indicate length of leads (-) and lags (+) in months from reference turning dates.
Current data for these series are shown on page 59.

BCII

APRIL 1978




11

CYCLICAL
AI

COMPOSITE INDEXES AND THEIR COMPONENTS—Con.

Chart Al. Composite Indexes—Con.
!P

P

T

T

913. Marginal emploperrt adjustments (series 12,3,5)
-9

A/^X/
-1

V

-2

,

^CO-

915. Inventory investment and purchasing (series 8,32,36,92)

916. Prafitafcility (series 17, 19, 88)

-n

ll

-11

-»-

-4

\/

-"2

-10

917. Mooey art fimtcial flows (siries 104, 1057110)

ZE.

940. Ratf0t coificident index to lagging index

HJ

49 S@ 81 62 SB S4 SS SS §7 gi gf i@ il ig ©3 ©4 (
NOTE: Number* entered on the chart Indicate length of leads (-) and lags ( + } In months from reference turning dates.
Current data for these lerles are shown on page 59.

12



APRIL

1978

BCII

COMPOSITE INDEXES AND THEIR COMPONENTS—Con.

Chart A2. Leading Index Components
(Nov.)(0ct)
P T

P T

(Aug.)(Apr.)

(Aj>r.)(FeS>.)

F T

P T

f

T

1. Average workweek, production workers,
manufacturing (tours)

8. few nnterc far Bimsiimur gnnib and matPfiak 1977 frillarc fhil rinl ^

[LLLl

32. Vendor performance, percent
reporting slower deliveries

1948 49 m il m S3 §4 g§ g§ S^ 5

76 77 1978

Current data for these series are shown on pages 60, 63, 64, and 65.

ItCII

APRIL

1978




13

CYCLICAL
COMPOSITE INDEXES AND THEIR COMPONENTS—Con.
Chart A2. Leading Index Components—Con.

9Q

HAW hnilriino Ntrntik nrivM* hnucinv unite (Mw- 19fi7r1«n

M

36. Net change in inventories on fiaftd art on order. 1972 dollars, smoothed1 (ann. rate. HI. dol.)

92. Change in sensitive prices, smoothed1 (percent)

19. Stock prices, 500 common stocks
(index: 1941-43=10)

104. Change in total liquid assets, smoothed1 (percent)

105. Money supply--M1--in 1972 dollars (bil. dol.)

49

SI

it 63 §4 S§ S6

71 72 J3 74 7®

'This series li a weighted 4-term moving average (with weights 1,2,2,1) placed on the terminal month of the span.
Current data for these series are shown on pages 66, 67, 68, and 70.

14



APRIL 1978

BCII

CYCLICAL INDiCATORS
[A I
1

COMPOSITE INDEXES AND THEIR COMPONENTS—Con.

'

Chart A3. Coincident Index Components
(Nov.) (Oct.)
P T

(JulyXMay)
P
T

(Aug.)(Apr.)
P T

(Dee.) (Mow.)
P T

(Apr.)(Feb.)
P
T

(Nov.) (Mar.)
f
T

9085-

75-

41. Employees on nonagricdltural payrolls (mtilions)

150140-

57. ManufactoriBg and trade sales^ 1972 dollars (bil. dol.)
110100^

70-

60-

1948 49 50 Si 52 S3 S4 ii SS 57

67 68

7S

7@

77 1978

Current data for these series are shown on pages 61, 62, and 64.

BCII

APRIL 1978



15

CYCLICAL
A]

COMPOSITE INDEXES AND THEIR COMPONENTS—Con.

Chart A4. Lagging Index Components
(Nov.) (Oct.)
P
T

(July) (May)
P T

A

(G>GC.)(Nev.)
P
T

F T

P

T

91. Average fcratiofl of unenglopeflt (weeks-inverted scale)
12-

,«?
H

70. Manatactnrine and trade invMtones, 1ST? Jillari (hil rtnl)

j| i]S-

1 m<=
62. Labof cost per unit of output, manufacturing (index: 1967=100)

. Average prime rate

95. Ratio, consumer installment debt to personal income (percent)

1948 49

50

SI §2 SS g4 SB

Currant data for those »«rfas ar« shown on pag«« 61, 67, 69, and 72,

16




APRIL

1978

BCII

B

CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS

Chart Bl. Employment and Unemployment
P

P

T

(Dec.) (Nov.)
P I

T

(Now.)
f

(Mar.)
T

[Marginal Employment Adjustments]
production workers, manufarturing (hours)

21. Average weekly overtime hours, production workers, manufacturing (hours)

2. Accession rate, Manufacturing (per 100 employees)

I

5. Average weekly initial claims, State unemployment insurance (thousands—inverted scale)

200-

400-

3. Layoff rate, manufacturing (per 100 employees—inverted scale)
23-

4. Quit rate, manufacturing (per 100 employees)
2-

ii55 Si

57

58

59

S© S

©S

§7

77

78 1979

Current data for these series are shown on page 60.

ItCII

APRIL 1978




17

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
B I

CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS--Con.

Chart Bl. Employment and Unemployment—Con.
(Aug.) (Apr.)

P

(Apr,) (Fet)
P
T

I

P

(Nov.)
P

T

(Mar.)
I

fifl Ratin hfiln-wanted advertising to number

U

l

0.8-

0.4-

0.0150-

46, Help-wanted advertising (InJfiX: 13B7^

125-

-

BJl

100-

7S-

170-

|Comprehensive Employment|

100-

1SQ-

48. Employee-hours in nonagricultural establishments
<m rate' b'l.

140-

130-

85908S80-

in nonagricultural activities (millions)

70-

^

41. Employees on nonagriculdral payrolls
("'"ions) JTZtL

2,1-

^2-

^>^_J, . tf.-_ Fmplffiyp^s in gnnri<:-pr^Huning jfifl|i<;trj^

21-

manufacturing, constriction (millions)

20-

19§5 §6

57

§6

S9

60

SI

62

@3

64

6§

66

88

89

7©

71

72

73

74

7S

7$

77

78 1979

Current data for these lerles are shown on pages 60 and 61.

18



APRIL 1978 BCD

CYCLICAL
B I

INDICATORS

CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Con.

Chart Bl. Employment and Unemployment—Con.
(Ayg.)(Apr.)
P

(Apr.) (Feb.)

T

P

(Dec.) (Nov.)
P
T

T

[Comprehensive Employment—Con.I

I

(Nov.)
P

(Mar.)
T

i
58-

90. Ratio, civilian employment to total population, working age (percent)"
Jr

54 -

Comprehensive Unemployment
2T

37. Number unemployed, total (millions-inverted scale)
PP1
4-

567-

43.. UnempJopent rate.,Mai (perceM-JMerteiscale)
5-

45. Average weekly insured unemployment rate (percent-inverted scale)

91. Average duration of unemployment (weeks-inverted scale)

1955

5S

S?

58

59

@0

il

62

S3

SS

@7

68

75

Current data for these series are shown on page 61.

KCII

APRIL 1978




19

B

CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS-Con.

Chart B2. Production and Income

[Comprehensive Output and Income|
50. GNP in 1972 dollars, 0 (ann. rate, Ml.

52. Personal income in 1972 dollars (am. rate, bil. dol.)

51. Personal income less transfer payments,
1972 dollars (ann. rate, bil. del.)
_

Wages and salaries in mining, manufacturing, and construction,
1972 dollars (ann. rate, bil. dol.)*

©a <sg
Current data for theie series are shown on page 62.

20



APRIL 1978

ltd)

B I

CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS-Con.

Chart B2. Production and Income—Con.
(ABg.)(Apr.)

(Apr.) (Feb.)

I Industrial Production]

47.

73. Industrial production, durable manufactures
(index: 1967-100)

[ Capacity Utilization |
83. Rate of capacity utilization, manufacturing (BEA), Q (percent)

82. Rate of capacity utilization, manufacturing (FRB), Q (percent)

84. Rate of capacity utilization, materials, B (percent!

is

i?

sa

st g®

d£

®

Current data for these series are shown on pages 62 and 63.

KCII APRIL 1978



21

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
B

CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Con.

Chart B3. Consumption, Trade, Orders, and Deliveries
(Aug.) (Apr.)
F T

(Dee.) (Nov.)
P
T

(Apr.) (Feb.)
P I

(Nov.)

P

I Orders and Deliveries |

7. Hew orders, durable goods industries, 1972 dollars (bil. dol.)

-H

30-

20 J

orifers, curable goods industries,
current dollars (bil. dol.) rrrn

4940-

goods aid materials,
W

35-

3020-

25. Change in unfilled orders, durable gwds industries
(bil. dol.; MCD moving avg.-4-terra)

5

96. Manufacturers' unfilled orders, durable goods industries (bil, dot.)

ra

"T2TTelor"p§r!drmancer percent ot companies
reporting slower deliveries

ss
Current data for these tories are shown on page 63.

22



APRIL 1978

BCII

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
B

CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Con.

Chart B3. Consumption, Trade, Orders, and Deliveries—Con.
(Aug.) (Apr.)
P
T

(Dee.) (Nov.)
P
T

(Apr.) (Feb.)
P
T

(Nov.)

(Mar.)

P

T

260-1
240220-

| Consumption and Trade];

200-

J, X

180160-

56. Manufacturing and trade sales, current dollars (fail. doD-

140120100-

57. Manufacturing and trade sales,
| 1972 dollars (Ml. Jol.)|i

75. Industrial production, consumer goods (index

54. Sales of retail stores, ciibnt dollars (bil.
59. Sales of retail stores, 1972 dollars (tail, dol.)

55. Personal consumption expenditures, automobiles,
fl (ann, rate.7 bil. dol.)

consumer sentiment, Q (1st Q 1966=100)

1955

56

ItCII

57

APRIL




58

1978

59

60

61

62

63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71

72

73

74

75

76

77

78

1979

23

B I

CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Con.

Chart B4. Fixed Capital Investment
(Aug.) (Apr.)
F T

(Dec.) (Nov.)
P
T

(Apr.) (Fab.)
P I

(Nov.)
P

(Mar.
T

[Formation of Business Enterprises
12. Net business formation (index: 1967=100

111

13. New business incorporations (thousands)

Business Investment Commitments

20. Contracts and orders for plant and
1972 dollars (bit, dol.)

current dollars (bil. dol.)

27. Manufacturers' new orders, capital goods industries;
nondefense, 1972 dollars (bil. dol.)

24. Manufacturers' new orders, capital goods industries
noffliefense, current dollars (bil. dol

9. Construction contracts,
commercial and industrial
^

es gj B§ m 00 si §a ss §4 m m @j m ®s m 71 j% 73 ?^ :
'This Is a copyrighted series used by permission; It may not be reproduced without written permission from McGraw-Hill Information Systems Company, F.W. Dodge Dlvfslo
Current data for these series are shown on pages 64 and 65.

24



APRIL 1978

ItCII

CYCLICAL
B |

CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Con.

Chart B4. Fixed Capital Investment—Con.
(Aug.) (Apr.)

(Apr.) (Fab.)
P
T

P I

(Dec.) (Nov.)
P
T

(Now.)
P

(Mar.)
T

iU™

[Business investment Commitments— Con.l

,

r

A

18-

is-

/

J\ *J
11, Hew capital appropriations, manufacturing, tt (Ml. dul.)'

i!

iM&yJ

iv|

N/ V

f

141210-

f

8-

/X

A

/

iu

/

5040-

97. Backlog of capital appropriations, manufacturing,
1 (bil. d.l.)'

30-

20-

!OU«

160-

•**

61. Business expenditures, new ; plant and equipment,

J

^
.^^^^

n

140120«
100-

1C.U.UI

^ _x^*^^

nll-

Business::Investment Expenditures

220200180160140120-

69. Machinery and equipment sales and
business construction expenditures
(ann. rate, bil. ttol.)

*

10080200^
180«
160140120-

76. Industrial production, business equipment
(index: 1987=100)

10080-

6IJ-

1959 56

57

58

59

@0

SI

62

S3

64

65

86

67

68

69

7©

71

J2

73

74

75

76

77

78 1979

'This is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from The Conference Board.
Current data for these series are shown on pages 65 and 66.

HCII

APRIL 1978




25

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
B I

CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS-Con.

Chart B4. Fixed Capital Investment—Con.
(Aug.) (Apr,)
P I

(Apr.) (Feb.)
P T

(Dee.) (Now.)
P
T

[Business Investment Expfoditures-CorT]

160140-

NonresMMtiil fixed investment, 1972 dollars, 0 (ann. rate, bil. dol.)

120-

86. Total, Q

100-

^SW. Producers' durable epipnett, Q

10-

[Residential Construction Commitments and Investment]
2.8-1
2.4*
2.22.0-1

28. New private housing units started, total (ann. rate, millions)

;

Fuji

29. New building permits, private housing units (index: 1967=100)

70-

Residential fixed investment, total, 1972 dollars, Q (ann. rate, lit. fclT

fccn

80-

so-

\

40-

V
SS

57

58

59

60

8

62

S3

64

$S

6S

§7

6®

Si

70

71

73

74

75

77

78

Current data for these series are shown on page 66.

26



APRIL 1978

BCII

B I

CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Con.

Chart B5. Inventories and Inventory Investment

[inventory Investment[
30. Change in business inventories, 1972 dollars, Q (ann. rate, bil. dol

«£

M

36. Net change in inventories on hand and on order, 1972 dollars_
(ann. rate, bil. dol.; moving avg.-4-temt1)

31. Change in book value, manufacturing and trade inventories
(ann. rate, bil. do).; MCD moving avg.-5-term)

V^K^: /^A j^&^f -

Vf ^ r f 'W^~
4-4«

38. Change in stocks of materials and supplies on band and m orderjiifg._
(Ml. dol.; MCD moving avg.»4-terra)

*£•
+2*t-

a-i-2-3i.

1.9S5'

SS

5-7

s^

§^oS'

Svi'

&1>

®^

S3*-

&$•

S3>

&{>

®#

S§*

1

Thls series is a weighted 4-term moving average (with weights 1,2,2,1) placed on the terminal month of the span.
Current data for these series are shown on page 67.

IICII APRIL 1978



27

CYCLICAL
B I

CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Con.

Chart B5. Inventories and Inventory Investment—Con.
f

(Bee.) (Nov.)
P
I

I

480-,

I Inventories on Hand and on Order!

300*
70. Book value, manufacturing and trade inventories,
1972 dollars (Ul. dol.)

\

71. Book valoe, manufacturing ^ trade inventories,
current dollars (Ml. dol.) ||a|0.Ul

70-]
656095SO45-

7

65. Book value of manufacturers' inventories.
finished goods (bil. dol.) | Lgtlg,Lg|

25-

77. Ratio, deflated inventories to sales, manufacturing and trade (ratio)
1.8

1.71.6-

14I

78. Stocks of materials and supplies on hand
and on order, mfg. (bil. dol.)

19SS

57

BS

59

SI

62

S3

71

120

/
/

72

100-

74

75

77

78

Current data for these series are shown on page 67.

28



APRIL 1978

ItCII

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
B

CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS-Con.

_

Chart B6. Prices, Costs, and Profits
(Aug.) (Apr.)
P T

(Apr.) (Feb.)
P
T

.)

P

(Mar.)
T

[Sensitive Commodity Prices [

92. Change in sensitive prices (percent; moving avg.-4-term1)

19. Stock prices, 500 common stocks (index: 1941-43-10)

| Profits and Profit Margins

18. Corporate profits after taxes, 1972 dollars, Q (ann. rate, bil. dol.)

16. Corporate profits after taxes, current dollars
0 (ann. rate, bil. dol.

Corporate profits after taxes with fVA and CCA,
1972 dollars, Q (ann. rate, bil. dol.)
iMl
\
norporaletrafilslfler taxes wilh IVA and CCA,
current dollars, a (ann. rate, bil. dol.)
L,C,L

1955 §6

SJ

§8

59

62

72

73

74

75

76

77

7S 1979

'This series is a weighted 4-term moving average (with weights 1,2,2,1) placed on the terminal month of the span.
Current data for these series are shown on page 68.

ItCII

APRIL 1978



29

CYCLICAL
CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Con.
Chart B6. Prices, Costs, and Profits—Con.

•?

<?

7

TT

| Profits and Profit Margins— Con. |
22. Ratio, MfMfate profits (after taxes) to total corporate

domestic iftconu, Q (percwt)

81. Ratio, corporate profits (after taxes) with inventory valuation
and capital consumotion adiustments to total corporate domestic
income, 0 (percent)

15. Profits (after taxes) per dollar of sales, all manufacturing corporations. Q (cents)

17. Ratio, price to unit labor cost, manufacturing (index.-1967=100)

35. Net cash flow, corporate, 1972 dollars,
S (ann. rate, bil. dol.)

34. Net cash flow, corporate, current dollars,
Q (ann. rate, HI. dol.)

1995

56 S7

Si

ii

6©

31 il

Current data for these lories are shown on pages 68 and 69.

30



APRIL 1978

BCD

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
B I

CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Con.

Chart B6. Prices, Costs, and Profits—Con.
(Apr.) (Feb.)
P I

(Aug.) (Apr.)
P T

(Dec.) (Nov.)
P
T

(Nov.)
P

(Mar.)
T
200-1
190-

Unit Labor Costs and Labor Share

180170180-

J

190-

L

140-

B3. Unit labor cost, private business sector, fl (index: 1967=100)

130-

120-

110-

1.05-

IV

1.00O.S50,90 -

0.850.80-

L

OJ5-

7

68. Labor cost (current dollars) per unit of gross domestic product
(1972 dollars), nonfinancial corporations, u (dollars)

0.700.65-1

62, Labor cost per unit of output, manufacturing (index: 1967=100)

64. Compensation of employees as a percent of national income, Q (percent)
75-

1955

56

57

58

5S

$0

61

62

63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71

72

73

74

75

76

77

78 1979

Current data for these series are shown on page 69.

APRIL 1978



31

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Con.
Chart B7. Money and Credit
(Aug.) (Apr.)
P T

(Apr.) (Feb.)
F T

P

(Mov.)
P

T

(Mar.)
T

85. Change in money supply-demand deposits oltis currency (Ml)
(percent; MCD moving avg.-6-term) , *

+1.2«
+0.8-

-

t

+8.4-

i,v ^f I/M

0.0-

+I.ST

102. Change in money supply plus time deposits at commercial banks (M2)
(percent; MCD moving avg.-6-term)
- ^

40.400-

104. Change in total liquid assets (percent: moving avg.-4-term1)

+1.J?-»0.8-

^04-

105. Money supply«M1»in 1972 dollars (bil. dol.)

rmj

^s^^^ m/"~*^

,S ^^\

v

s^**s^
^

^^Xx^-^-^^v

3

^xx^^

SCO-

106. Money supply-M2--in 1972 dollars (bil. dol.)
449-

107. Ratio,JNIPto money supply Ml, Q (ratio)

1055 56

57

58

Si

i4

SS

SS

70

74

J§

'This *er!ei it a weighted 4-term mowing average (with weights 1,2,2,1) placed on the terminal month of the span.
Current data for these series are shown on page 70,

32



APRIL 1978

BCII

CYCLICAL
B I

CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Con.

Chart B7. Money and Credit—Con.
(Aug.) (Apr.)
P I

(Apr.) (Fab.)
P
T

(Dec.) (Nov.)
P
T

(Nov.)
P

(Mar.)
T

[Credit Flows

33. Change in mortgage debt (ann. rate, bil. dol.)

full

112. Change in bank loans to businesses (ann. rate, bil. dol.;
MCD moving avg.-6-term)

113. Change in consumer installment debt (ann. rate, bil. dol.)

XL

-10-1
400-1
350-

300«

110. Total private borrowing, Q (ann. rate, bil. dol.f

fjj

250-

^

A

\/

200-

J^ V

^S>V^

!:

.

150-

100-

;i

50-J

1955 §6

S7

S2

63

64

69

66

67

70

.71

73

74

7§

76

77

78 1979

Current data for these series are shown on pages 70 and 71.

BCII APRIL 1978



33

CYCLICAL
CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS^-Con.
Chart B7. Money and Credit—Con.
(Aug.) (Apr.)
P T

{Beg,} (Nov.)

(Apr.) (Feb.)
P
T

P

T

[Credit Difficulties |

14. Liabilities of business failures (mil. doL-inverted scale;
HCD moving avg.-6-terml

_ ^J4-jM-i^- H I

39. Deliquency rate, 30 days and over, consumer installment loans
(percent-inverted scale)

SI2r525££

[Bank Reserves!

93. Free reserves (bit. do!.--inverted scale)

94. Member bank borrowing from the Federal Reserve (bil. dol.)

195§ 96

§7

§8

89

6@

I

§4

Si

§§ it

70 n

Current data for these teries are shown on page 71.

34



APRIL 1978

ItCII

CYCLICAL
Bl

CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS-Con,

Chart B7. Money and Credit—Con.
(Aug.) (Apr.)
P
T

(Apr.) (Feb.)
P I

(Dec.) (Wow.)
P
T

(Mm.)
P

(Mar.)
T

119. Federal funds rate (percent)-^

114. Treasuryjjill rate (percent)
C,Lg,

116. Corporate bond yields (percent)—^
;

,

mmac. ....LiL'.iiHiMiuui

/

y

.miy) i.mmK.yLa*nv.

.A/

AA\7

115. Treasury bond yields (percent)

117. Municipal bond yields (percent)

118. Secondary market yields on FHA mortgager j?
(percent)
. ^..^.., .

\
765-

1955 S6

57

§8

§9

60

61

§S

63

64

87

68

69

77

78 1979

Current data for these series are shown on pages 71 and 72.

APRIL 1978



35

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
B |

CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS-Con.

Chart B7, Money and Credit—Con.
(Aug.) (Apr,)

P

(Dee.) (Nov.)
P
T

(Apr.) (Feb.)

T

P

I

(Nov.)
P

(Mar.)
T

Interest Rates-Con.

67. Bank rates on short-term business loans (percent)

109. Average prime rate charged by banks (percent)

| Outstanding Debt
66. Consumer installment

72. Commercial and industrial Inans outstanding,
weekly reporting large commercial
banks (Ml. dol.)

95. Ratio, consumer installment debt to personal jncoroe (percent)

§6

S7

S8

60

61

63

64

©5

60

67

Si

60

70

7i

72

73

74

7S

10-

76

77

7S 107S

Current data for these series are shown on page 72.

36



APRIL 1978

BCII

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
C I

DIFFUSION INDEXES AND RATES OF CHANGE

Chart Cl. Diffusion Indexes
(Aug.) (Apr.)
P I

(Apr.) (Feb.)
P T

(Dec.) (Now.)
P
T

(Hm.)
P

(Mar.)
T

Percent rising)
950. Twelve leading indicator components (6-nio. span-—-, 1*mo. span—f-)

100*1

50-

951. Four roughly coincident indicator components (6-mo. span—, 1-mo. span—)

l

lllfiW
1

',' I' 5 !!

ii I Mi

' 1» '

V jj

:

!t

!W

;i
mm
i

100-t

SO-

952. Six lagging indicator components (6-mo. span—, 1-mo. span — ]

I

961. Average workweek, production workers, manufacturing--?! industries (9-mo. span—, 1-mo. span

962. Initial claims, State unemployment insurance-51 areas (percent declining; 9-mo. span—, 1-mo. span 100«i

50-

o-J

963. Employees on private nonagricultural payrolls-172 industries (6-mo. span—r 1-mo. span —

1955

56

57

58

5i

SO

61

62

$3

64

65

66

67

88

69

J©

71

72

73

74

75

76

77

78 1979

Current data for these series are shown on page 73.

KCII

APRIL 1978




37

CYCLICAL
C I

DIFFUSION INDEXES AND RATES OF CHANGE—Con.

Chart Cl. Diffusion Indexes—Con.
P

(Bee.) (Nov.)
P
I

T

(Nov.)

(Mar.)

P

T

964. New orders, durable goods industries--^ industries (9-mo. span—, 1-mo. span—!

A"

8

965. Newly approved capital appropriations, deflated-17 industries1 (4-Q moving avg, •*•, 1-D spaa —
QQ-

966. Industrial production~24 industries (6-mo. span—, 1-mo. span—

967. Industrial materials prices-13 industrial materials (9-mo. span—, 1-mo. span--)

stocks-62-82 industries (9-mo. span—, 1-mo. span—-)

969. Profits, manufacturing-about 1fOOO corporations (4-0 spaci~~, 1-Q
9(3-

1SSS

S6

@0

61

71

72

73

74

1S7S

'Thl* Is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from The Conference Board.
Current data for these series are shown on page 74.

38



APRIL 1978

BCII

DIFFUSION INDEXES AND RATES OF CHANGE—Con.
Chart Cl, Diffusion Indexes—Con.
(Dec.) (Nov.)
P
T

(Nov.)
P

(Mar.)
T

(Dec.) (Nov.)
P
T

(Nov.)
P

(Mar.)
T

970. Business expenditures for new plant and
!| equipment-18 industries (1-Q span)
(a) Actual expenditures

974. Number of employees, manufacturing and trade (4-Q span)1
70-i
§0-

975. Level of inventories, manufacturing and trade (4-Q span)1

(a) Actual expenditures

7050-

976. Selling prices, manufacturing (4-Q span)1

971. New orders, manufacturing (4-Q span)1

972. Net profits, manufacturing and trade (4-Q span)1

977. Selling prices, wholesale trade (44 span)1

70*

973.! Net sales, manufacturing and trade (4-Q span)1

978. Selling prices, retail trade (4-Q span)1
§0-

1988 69

7Q

1

This is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from Dun & Bradstreet, Inc. Dun & Bradstreet diffusion Indexes are based on surveys of about 1,400
business executives.
Current data for these series are shown on page 75.

BCII APRIL



1978

39

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
C I

DIFFUSION INDEXES AND RATES OF CHANGE-Con.

Chart C3. Rates of Change
(Aug.) (Apr.)

P

(Apr.) (Feb.)

T

F

(Nov.)
P

(D@G.) (Nov.)
P
T

T

(Mar.)
T

Percent changes at annual rate
910c. Composite index of twelve leading indicators
(series 1,3,8, 12, 19, 20,29,32,38,92, 104, 105)

+40+30+20+10-

0-10-20«
-30-J

920c. Composite index of four roughly coincident indicators
(series 41 J7,5l757r

+28+100-10-

930c. Composite index of six lagging indicators

50c. GNP in constant dollars (1-Q span)

+10-1
+5-

47c. Index of industrial production

48c. Employee-hours in nonagricultural establistiments

51c. Personal income less transfer payments in 1972 dollars ;

195S 56

57

40



58

59

60

61

§2

f>3

i4

@S

86

71

72

73

74

7S

7S

77

78 1979

APRIL 1978

IICII

NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT
Chart Al. GNP and Personal Income
(Aug.) (Apr.)
P
T

(Apt) (Feb.)
P
T

(Dec.) (Nov.)
P
T

(Now.)
P

(Mar.)
T

220020001890-

14001200-

200. GNP in current dollars, Q (ann. rate, bil. dol.)
1000-

17001600.150014001300120011001000100-

223. Personal income in current dollars
(ann. rate. bil. dol.]

800-

224. Disposable personal income in current
dollars, 0 (ann. rate, bii. dol.)

213. Final sales in 1972 dollars, Q (ann. rate, bil. dol.

225. Disposable personal income in 1972
7.0-t
0.56.0-

217. Per capita GNP in 1972 dollars, Q (ann. rate, thons. dol.)

5.95.04.54.0-

3.5-

227. Per capita disposable personal income in
1972 dollars, Q (ann. rate, tftous. dol.)

m s? ss

m m

ei ©2

i4

SS

66

67

71

72

76

11

78 1979

Current data for these series are shown on pages 62 and 79.

KCII APRIL



1978

41

IMPORTANT
A |

NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT-Con.

Chart A2. Personal Consumption Expenditures
(Aug.) (Apr.)
P T

i}

(Mar.)
T

Annual rate, billion dollars (current)
Personal consumption expenditures-

Annual rate, billion dollars (1972)

1955 56

57

Si

59 66

61

§2 63

64

it

69

70

Jl

Current data for those series are shown on pages 79 and 80.

42



APRIL 1978

OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
IA

I

NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT—Con.

Chart A3. Gross Private Domestic Investment
P I

p

f

Annual rate, billion dollars (current)
Gross private domestic iiivestment-

245. Change in business inventories, Q

Annual rate, billion dollars (1972)

J96

57 58

IS

ifi

ti

ii

«7

Current data for these series are shown on page 80.

BCII

APRIL 1978




43

OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC
A I

NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT—Con.

Chart A4. Government Purchases of Goods and Services
(teg,) (Apr.)

(Apr.) (Feb.)

F T

F

T

Annual rate, billion dollars (current)
Sflfl
481
4^0
380

Government purchases of goods and services-

340

260, Total, Q

268. State ami local
govemidits, B

140-

60 J

Annual rate, billion dollars (1972)
340

261, TotalTf

1811

267. State and local governments, Q

\

10SS S6 S7

58

ii

8©

J

if S3

Si

^J

7J

m 1979

Current data (or theie series are shown on page 80.

44



APRIL 1978

KCII

IA

|

NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT—Con.

Chart A5. Foreign Trade
r.)

F T

(fee.) (ffe.)
F T

(Apr.) (Feb.)

F

T

(Nov.)
P

(Mar.)
T

Annual rate, billion dollars (current)
240220-

200*
ISO160-

21

140-

XZ

120100-

80-

252. Exports of goods and services, Q

X
253. Imports of goods and services, Q

250. Net exports of goods and services, 6

Annual rate, billion dollars (1972)

256. Exports of goods and services, 0

257. Imports of goods and services, Q

255. Net exports of goods and services, Q

isss ss §y

§s m m

e

78

Current data for these series are shown on page 81.

lt€l»

APRIL




1978

45

OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
A I

NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT—Con.

Chart A6. National Income and Its Components
(A«g,)(Apr.)

P

(Apr.) (Feb.)

T

P

I

P

T

Annual rate, billion dollars (current)
2000180016001400-

1200-

tooe900800700800-

220, National income. Q

500-

7
280. Compensation of employees, Q

400360-

iv

180160140-

286. Corporate profits with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments, Q
10090H

282, Proprietors' income with inventory valuation
and capital consumption adjustments, Q

v

4030-

288. Net interest, Q20*

284. Rental income of persons with capital
consumption adjustment, Q

10-

96

57

Si

60

61

63

64

§§

66

68

ii

70

71

72

73

74

7S

76 77

1979

Current data far these series are shown on page 81.

46



APRIL 1978

BCD

OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
|A|

NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT-Con.

Chart A7. Saving
(Aug.) (Apr.)

P

(Dec.) (Now.)
P
T

(Apr.) (Feb.)

T

F

T

(Now.)

(Mar.)
T

293. Personal saving rate, Q

^7
Jl I :

1955

56

57

58

59

60

61

,

62

63

,

64

65

8-

r\s

A.

'

10-

'

66

'„ 'IJdUL1

.

67

68

69

70

...

71

72

'

73

6-

\r

4-

lULTJJL

74

75

76

77

78 1979

Current data for these series are shown on pages 81 and 82.

ItCII

APRIL




1978

47

IMPORTANT
A I

NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT—Con.

Chart A8. Shares of GNP and National Income
f

T

(Nov.)
P

(Mar.)
T

[Percent of GNP

235. Personal consumption expenditures,j

268. State and local government prckases
of goods and services, 6
265. Federal Government purchases of goods and services, Q

248. Nonresidential fixed investment, 8
249. Residential fixed investment,
•*^*s».

\7

—**-•
251. Net exports of goods and services, Q

247. Change in business inventories, Q

[Percent of National Income]

64. Compensation of employees, Q

283. Proprietors' income with inventory valuation and
capital consumption adjustments, Q

287. Corporate profits with inventory valuation and
capita] consumption adjustoBts, Q

285. Rental income of persons with capital consumption adjustment,

§6 w

ss

§9 §© ©i

67 m

Current data for theie series are shown on page 82.




APRIL 1978

IICII

OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC
Bj

PRICES, WAGES, AND PRODUCTIVITY

Chart Bl. Price Movements
(Dae.) (Nov.)
T

(Dec.)
P

T

(Nov.)
P

(Mar.)
T

Percent changes at annual rate
310. Implicit price deflator, GNP, Q

310c. Implicit price deflator,
GNP H-Q span)

/A

m

M

-*x

311c. Fixed weighted price index, gross
bigness product (1-Q span) /s*

311. Fixed weighted price index,
gross business

+15+10-

n

+10-

Wholesale prices+30-

330c. All commodities

+20+10«

+30-

335c. Industrial commodities

333c. Producer finished goods /

1908 6S

70

71

72

73

74

7S

77 1978

Current data for these series are shown on pages 83, 84, and 85.

APRIL 1978




49

IMPORTANT
PRICES, WAGES, AND PRODUCTIVITY-Con.
Chart Bl. Price Movements—Con.
(Aug.) (Apr.)
P T

(Apr.) (fell,)
P
T

(Dee.) (Nov.)
P
T

(Nov.)
P

(Mar.)
T

Consumer prices-

+30+20+10-

Chart B2. Wages and Productivity
240-

Me*: 1967=100

220200180-

345. Average hourly compensation, all employees,
nonfarm business sector (currant dollars), Q

160-

140-

120-

340. Average hourly earnings of production workers, private
nonfarm economy (current dollars)'
100130-

346. Real average hourly compensation, all employees,
nonfarm business sector; u ~""

120110M

341. Real average hourly earniigs of production workers,
private nonrarm economy'

19S5

Si

,71

73

&

74

^Adjusted for overtime (In manufacturing only) and Interindustry employment shifts and seasonallty.
Current data for theie series are shown on pages 83, 86, ana 67,

50



APRIL 1978

IICII

B I

PRICES, WAGES, AND PRODUCTIVITY—Con.

Chart B2. Wages and Productivity—Con.
(Aug.) (Apr.)
P
T

(Apr.) (Feb.)
P
T

(Dec.) (Nov.)
P
T

(Nov.)
P

(Mar.)
T

I Wages- CorT
Change in average hourly earnings of product
workers, private nonfarm economy-*340e. Current dollar earnings ,^v|T

341c. Real earnings ,
1
rlvmnl spans
_^^JlJT
ux-monin
lann. raiej j; \\ u /.

-5-

Change ill average hourly compensation, all employees,
nonfarm business sector, Q-345c. Current dollar compensation
One-quarter spans (ann. rate)

-10+15-

^.— L

+104^«

MepiatgB wage anOeifit decisions, all industries^
348. First year avg. changes, Q (antrratet
+10-

349. Average changes over life
contract, Q (ann. rate)
Productivity j

370. Output per hour, all persons,
private business sector, Q

358. Output per hour, all persons, nonfarm business sector, Q

x 370c. Change in output per hour, private business sector, Q
+10-

. a

^^y^Vfesc^W^^
>————' * S *** ^..i±^^^f. ^,.v.,/^
k

56

§7

Si

1®

©©

61

it

63

m

m

@@

6J

68

69

7©

71

7%

+5-

^

V
73

?®

7$

76

77

78 1979

1

Adjusted for overtime (in manufacturing only) and interindustry employment shifts and seasonally. 2 One-month percent changes have been multiplied by a constant (12) so that they may be shown
against the background of the annualized changes over 6-month spans. See the current data table for actual 1-month percent changes.
Current data for these series are shown on pages 86 and 87.

ItUI

APRIL 1978




51

OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC
C I

LABOR FORCE, EMPLOYMENT, AND UNEMPLOYMENT

Chart Cl. Civilian Labor Force and Major Components
P

I

(N@v.)

(m.}

P

T

441. Civilian tabor force, total (millions)

442. Total employed (millions)

Labor force participation rates (percent)451. Males 20 years and over

453. Both sexes, 16-19 years of age

452. Females 20 years and over

444. Males 20 years and over
X

446. Both sexes, 16-19 years of age
447. Number unemployed, full-time
448. Number employed part-time for economic
reasons (millions)

1955

S6

57

§8

§9

GQ

H

©3

@4

6S

66

Current data for these series are shown on page 88.

52



APRIL 1978

BCII

D

GOVERNMENT ACTIVITIES

Chart Dl. Receipts and Expenditures
-pr.)

(Apr.) (Feb.)

(Dec.) (tow.)
P
T

(Rfou.)

Annual rate, billion dollars (current)
450400350300-

502. Federal Government expenditures, Q

501.

200-

\
Federal Government receipts, Q

150-

100-

500. Federal Government surplus or deficit, Q

511. State and focal government receipts, I]

510. State and local government surplus or deficit, Q

m m m SD d©

1979

Current data for these series are shown on page 89.

APRIL




1978

53

OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC
GOVERNMENT ACTIVITIES-Con.
Chart D2. Defense Indicators
(Dee.) (Nov.)
P
T

(Nov.)

516. Defense Department obligations, total

6-

525. Military prime contract awards in U.S. (bil. dot.; MCD moving avg.-6-term)

Manufacturers' new orders, defense products
(bil. dol.; MCD moving avg.--6-term)

564. Federal Government purchases of goods and services for national defense, Q (ann, rate, bil. dol.[
70"

m

S7

98

i©

61

?©

71

Current data for those scries arc shown on

54



APRIL 1978

ItCII

OTHER IMPORTANT E©
EJ

U.S. INTERNATIONAL TRANSACTIONS

Chart El. Merchandise Trade
(Aug.) (Apr.)
P
T

(Apr.) (Feb.)
P
T

(Dec.) (Nov.)
P
T

(Nov.)
P

(Mar.)
T

12-

SL
5

602. Exports, excluding military aid shipments (bit. dol.; MCO moving avg.--5-term)

604. Exports of agricultural products,
total (Ml. dol.)

Exports of nonelectrical machinery (bif. doi.)

612. General imports (bil. dol.; moving avg.-4-term)

814. Imports of petroleum and petroleum

616. Imports of automobiles and parts (bil. dot.!

1955

56

57

58

59

60

61

@2

63

64

65

7S

76

77

78 1979

Current data for these series are shown on page 90.

KCII APRIL



1978

55

IMPORTANT
E I

U.S. INTERNATIONAL TRANSACTIONS-Con.

Chart E2. Goods and Services Movements
(Aug.) (Apr.)
P I

(0©e.) (Nov.)
P
!

(Apr.) (Feb.)
P T

(Now.)
P

(Mar.)
T

867. Balance on goods and services, 0

622. Merchandise trade balance, Q

651. Income on U.S. investments abroad, Q

652. Income on foreign investments in the U.S., Q

m §j

si

m ©@ @i i

NOTE: Annual totals are shown for the period prior to 1960.
Current data for these series are shown on page 91.

56



APRIL 1978

BCII

F

INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS

Chart Fl. Industrial Production
(Aug.) (Apr.)
P
T

US

SJ

Si

(Apr.) (Feb.)
P
T

ii

i©

(Dec.) (Wow.)
P
T

(Mar.)
T

I

Current data for these series are shown .on page 92.

BCII

APRIL 1978




57

IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
F I

INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS—Con.

Chart F2. Consumer Prices

Chart F3. Stock Prices
(Nov.)
P

(Dec.) (Nov.)

(Dec.) (Mov.)

P

Consumer prices: percent changes over
6-month spans (annual rate)-

1

(Mar.)
T

Stock prices-

Index: 1967-100]
19, United States

140-

vjOt.

120
100-

*fay400«
-

—

.

*

I

-T-

-

f*\

748. Japan /

-T-

^

•

_,_.,

/

300-

^^-^

V-\A^

200-

4

/

200-

A/

x^

150-

IDfl-

745. West Germany
^***r

/'*<J'\

AT-V

^\

v^y^ ^w—
/^

s*~«~.

4

736c. France

s*fry"
120-

fiti-

746. France

+201

120100-

742. United Kingdom

2403
/VnlTL

^A^
^/
VA.

^^\

^A

.,/*•*
-f

^

v
/ A^v/

Y^V f

\\ r
// V

4

\f

200180160140120100-

so-

V

747. Italy

737C. Italy
420-

80-

40'

743. Canada

733c. Canada

160'
140«
120100-

71

72

73

74

7S

76

^7 1978

Current data for those series are shown on pages 93 and 94.

58




APRIL 1978

KCII

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
COMPOSITE INDEXES AND THEIR COMPONENTS

M| COMPOSITE INDEXES
910. Index of
12 leading indicators (series
1,3,8, 12, 19,
20 29, 32, 36,
92, 104, 105)

Year
and
month

(1967=100)

920. Index of
4 roughly
coincident indicators (series
41,47,51,57)

(1967-100)

930. Index of 6
lagging indicators (series
62, 70, 72,
91,95,109)

(1967-100)

Leading Indicator Subgroups
913. Marginal
employment
adjustments
(series 1,2, 3,
5)

914. Capital
investment
commitments
(series 12, 20,
29)

915. Inventory
investment
and purchasing
(series 8, 32, 36,
92)

(1967=100)

(1967=100)

(1967=100)

916. Profitability (series
17,19,80)

(1967=100)

917. Money
and financial
flows (series
104,105, 110)

(1967=100)

940. Ratio,
coincident
index to
lagging index

(1967=100)

1976

January
February
March

121.2
122.0
123.2

118.7
120.0
121.2

120.8
120.1
119.8

97.5
97.9
97.9

105.4
104.9
106.0

100.3
101.4

107.2
108.5
108.3

106.7
106.3
106.2

101.2

April
May
June

123.0
124.5
125.6

121.9
122.0
122.5

119.2
119.7
121.0

96.0
96.5
96.1

104.9
104.9
106.5

102.1
103.0
103.6

108.4
108.0
108.3

107.6
108.0
107.4

102.3
101.9
101,2

125.7
125.6
125.3

122.7
123.2
123.0

121.1
120.9
121.9

95.7
95.5
94.3

106.7
106.5
107,9

103.2
103.3
102.3

109.2
109.3
108.6

107.7
107.9
107.9

101.3
101.9
100.9

126.1
127.0
127.7

122.7
123.9
126.0

121.7
121.2
120.9

94.5
96.0
96.8

109.3
109.0
108.7

101.3
102.0
102.2

107.4
106.7
107.5

109.4
109.7
110.5

100.8
102,2
104.2

126.3
127.3
130.0

125.2
126.5
128.8

121.6
122.3
122.8

95.6
96.6
97.9

108.8
109.6
110.6

101.0
101.6
103.4

106.8
106.2
107.0

no. 3
109.9
110.6

103.0
103.4
D104.9

April
May
June

H30.4
r!29.9
H29.7

129.1
129.5
130.2

123.3
124.3
126.5

97.1
97.1
97,0

110.0
110.8
111.5

rl04.1
rl03.4
102.7

107.7
108.4
108.7

rill. 3
rllO.3
r!09.9

104.7
104.2
102.9

July
August
September

r!29.4
r!31.5
H32.3

130.5
130.6
131.3

H26.8
128.1
H29.3

96.1
96.1
96.4

rllO.8
rl!3.1
r113.Q

H02.3
H02.8
r!02.9

109.5
(H>109.6
108.8

rin.o
rl!2.1
rl!3.3

rl02.9
102.0
101,5

October
November
December

133.8
H34.3
H> 135.2

132.4
133.3
134.6

H31.0
H32.4
132.6

96.8
97.6

D'98.5

rl!3.6
rl!4.4
H>rll5.1

r!03.1
r!02.6
rl03.1

107.6
107.1
r!06.5

• [8X114.5
114.1
r!14.3

rlOl.l
rlOO.7
101.5

r!33.5
134.2
M34.1

r!32.7
133.8
H> 2 135.6

r!35.3
137.3
e 138.3

r!13.3
rl!4.3
pl!4.8

r!03.7

r96.9
p98.2

H04.5
rT04,l
p!04.0

rl!3.6
rill . 1
p!09.0

r98.1
r97.5
p98.0

July
August
September

.. .

October
November
December

99.3

98.3
99.9

1977

January
February
March

....

1978

January
February
March
April
May
June

3

96.8

pioi.i

....

July
August
September
October
November
December
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ®. Current high values are indicated byE); for
series that move counter to movements in general business activity, current low values,are indicated by |H). Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or
order. Comolete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 11 and 12.
Excludes series 12 and 36 for which data are not yet available.
2
Excludes series 57 for which data are not yet available.
3
Excludes series 70 and 95 for which data are not yet available.

APRIL 1978



59

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
B I

CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS

MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS ..

BB EMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT

Minor Economic
Process
L, L, L

Timing C(QSS

Year

and
month

L, L, L

L, C, L

1 . Average
workweek of
production
workers,
manufacturing

2. Accession
21. Average
weekly overtime rate, manufachours, produc- turing
tion workers,
manufacturing
(Per 100 employees)

(Hours)

(Hours)

L, C, L

L, Lg, U

1,1,1

5. Average
weekly initial
claims, State
unemployment
insurance1
(Thous.)

Comprehensive
Employment

Job Vacancies

Marginal Employment Adjustments

3. Layoff rate,
manufacturing

4. Quit rate,
manufacturing

(Per 100 employees)

(Per 100 employees)

L, Lg, U

60. Ratio, helpwanted advertising to persons
unemployed
.

(Ratio)

u,e,c

1, Lg, U

46. Index of
help-wanted
advertising
in newspapers

(1967-100)

48, Employeehours in nof>
agricultural
establishments
(Ann. rate,
bil. hours)

1976
January
February
March .

40.4
40.3
40.2

3.1
3.1
3.2

4.1
4.2
4.3

359
342
347

1.1
1.0
1.2

1.6
1.7
1,8

0.352
0.384
0.394

87
93
94

150.59
150.22
150.34

April

39 4
40 3
40 2

2 5
3 3
3 1

4 1
4 0
3 8

360
392
397

1 3
1 3
1 4

1.8
1 7
1 7

0.378
0 397
0 402

91
94
96

149.66
151 35
151 07

40 1
40 0
39 7

3 1
3 0
3 g

3 8
3 3

403
408
424

1 4
1 5
1 5

1 7
1 6
1 6

0 396
0 390
0 383

98
97
94

151 73
151 69
152 11

39 9
dn l
40 0

3 0
1 1
1?

3 6
4 1

428
?<n
"WQ

1 5
1 1
1 2

1 6
1 5
1 7

0 389
0 394
0 417

96
99
105

152 82
152 59
153 59

January
February
March

39 5
40.3
40 4

3 2

4 0
H>4 6
4 2

386
431
329

1 2
1 4
1 1

1.8
1.9

0 442
0 434

1 9

O

105
106
108

159 ?fi

3 3

April

3 4
3 4
3 4

4 0
4 1
3 9

358
378
363

1 1
1 i
1 2

1 9
1 9
1 3

n &79
n AA/L
n /LQP

109
112
114

i Rfi Rn

June

40 3
40 4
40 5

July
August
September

40 2
an 1
40 3

3 4
1 ^
3 3

3 8
1A
3 9

382
377

1 3
1 "\
1 3

1 8
1 8
1 8

n R?K
n R3?
n ^**£

121
12?
120

1^7 11
1 RK QQ
1 R7 1 L

40 4
40 5
40 5

3 5

3 8
3 9
4 5

372
349
331

1 1
0 9
1 0

1 8
1 9

n 57fl
0 594
0 661

128
133
140

158 69
158 10
158 94

A n

<ni
370
fQ\n*59n
|H)p3ZO

een

1 18

K7G
fjvs. .-i n £ 0 "3>
[H)p0.68J

1 ^Q

May
June .... ,
July
.,
August
September

.

October
November
December

3 7

1 Q

1977

May

October
November
December

3.3

3 5
3 5

^Q1

E)2 1

flcn

md Rfi
1 RR ^R
1^5 AT

1 ^6 69

1978
January
February
March

^Q

fi

rdfi 0
luNndn
|p/ P^U. R
0

-3

C

lu\ r4 0
P
3 7/
po.

4

n

nA H

p*K U

n Q

1 Q

n

9 n

[H)pO,9

p2 . 0

O

O
O

[H) pi 41

v*1R7 fi/1
v>l eo no
fn\
n
en. 80
OA
[H) Pi
1 bU

April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by @. Current high values are indicated by [H); for
series that move counter to movements in general business activity, current low values are indicated by[H>. Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships
or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 13,17, and 18.
Data exclude Puerto Rico which Is included in figures published by the source agency.

60



APRIL 1978

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS-Con.

MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS

II

Minor Economic
Process . .

Comprehensive Unemployment

Comprehensive Employment-Con.

u,c.c

c, c, c

L,C,U

U, Lg, U

L, Lg, U

L, Lg, U

L, Lg, U

Lg, Lg, Lg

Lg, Lg, Lg

42. Persons
engaged in nonagricultural
activities, labor
force survey

41. Employees
on nonagricultural payrolls,
establishment
survey

40. Employees
in goodsproducing industries (mining, mfg., construction)

90. Ratio,
civilian employment to total
population of
working age

37. Number of
persons unemployed, civilian
labor force

43. Unemployment rate,
total

45. Average
weekly insured unemployment rate
State programs1

91. Average
duration of
unemployment

44. Unemployment rate,
persons unemployed 15
weeks and over

(Thous.)

(Thous.)

(Thous.)

(Percent)

(Thous.)

(Percent)

(Percent)

(Weeks)

(Percent)

Timing Class

Year
and
month

EMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT-Con.

1976

7 9
7 7
7 6

4 4
4 2
d 1

16 7
16 3
Ifi d

7 174

7 fi

4 1

I C Q

7 DdrT

7 d

d °.

ici

7117

7

R

A A

1c p

po

7 °.7R

7 7

1C

7 An?

7 p

4 .0

cc

nc

7

OT p

7 7

"3R3

7

January . .
February
March . . .

82,956
83,287
83,562

78,413
78,650
78,929

23,069
23,143
23 244

55 70
55.80
55 90

7,359
7,205
7 108

April
May
June

83 825
84 232
84 134

79 228
79 263
79 402

23 371
23 353
23 357

56 08
56 21
56 07

July
August . .
September

84 477
84 453
84 512

7Q R?n

91 TRl

cc

7Q

fiflfi

91 9Q1

CC

79 895

pq Aqd

October
November
December

fid R^d
85 017
85 206

7Q AIR
an i?7
on q7fi

pq qcc

CC,

f|O

7

91 AftA
pq cpp

cc

pi

7 Aflfi

7 p

cc 97

7 AQO

7

7 /I
7 c
/ . D
7 A

7

P.

£

I C C

4p

1 C C

4

Q

1 b, b
1 b. b
1C O
ID.o

? Q

2 7
p c

2 p
2 p
2 . /1^
2/1
.4

2 . cb
2 ./ 4i

4/1
. *f

1 o. o
1 b. 4
1C. O
1 b. o

2 . cb
2 . cb
2 .cD

4 1
.1
4*1
.I

1C

K . 7/

2 .0
2 .00

5
4 . 7/
T
. 1

1C

O

1 C /I

1977

January .
February .
March

QC

COO

on C7/I

pq cpc

cc

oo

7/ ,Uob
nc.c.

pC

000

on p7n

00

cc

ci

DC pqq

pi

qqi

7

?A m 7

cc

71

7 1 AR

April
May
June

QC cpi

pi

con

Of.

QOp

pi

po.7

07

O-JP

pp i C7

PA 1 7£
o/T oc/i
c4 ,£04
9A o c c

CC QQ

July
August
September

87 382
87 569
87 889

82 407
82 474
82 763

24 412
24 305
24 360

57 09
57 14

October . .
November
December

QflO

PA /tOfi

C7

pAC,

PA RPP

C7 pi

pq /ipo

PA C.0fi

C7

ftp. idn

PP

P.P,

ftR7

00

PQ

OpC

7CO

c"? nc
D/ , Ub
C7 on
O/ . £ 1

c? pc
QC

QO

P7O

6
6 ,oy4

6 ,yu*f
on /i

7
/ .1
1
7-1
.\
7-1
. 1

6 719

fi

Q/-Q
QQA

6 821

1 b. OJ

0

3. 0

1 /I

/I
1 *\, 4

2 .11

3 .7
/

H/i
.4

1 .y

Q

3

"7
./
3-7
,/

H .9n
1/1
O
14. o

Q

1 .9
Q

1 .0

Q

q p

Ul

1 n

7 n
6 p

d n
A n

117

1 p

U

1 Q

4 . nU

6

CCQ

6
6

cpp

6 p

ceo

6

0.1 n

6

c

ppc

6

7

3 P

7

A

3

O

3 .b

A

T O O
1 J. b
T O 7

I O0

I . ny
1
1 .Q
O
1

Q

1 .0

1978

January
February
March
April
May
June

89 527
89 761
fu\pQ QCC

r pq

71 Q

r84 055
Fu\
AQP.
[H^ nfid
poHj^yo

Rpq

cp 07

r24 729

58 08

r pA

fuN n pA ftQfi

ins RP, ifi

H) 6 090
6 148

6

H) 6 1
6 2

{-

101

q c

12 5
0)12*3

fuS
m; n^
PO.Hd

i

7

1 6
IDS! 5

...

July
...
August
September . .
October . . . .
November
December
NOTE; Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ®. Current high values are indicated by H):for
series that move counter to movements in general business activity, current low values are indicated by [fi). Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or
order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 15,16,18, and 19.
1
Data exclude Puerto Rico which is included in figures published by the source agency.

APRIL 1978



61

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Con.

MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS

|Q PRODUCTION AND INCOME

Minor Economic
Process

Industrial Production

Comprehensive Output and Income

C,C,C

C,C,C

Timing Class

50. Gross national product
in 1972 dollars

Your
and
month

Personal income
223. Current
dollars

(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.}

52. Constant
(1972) dollars
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)

c,c,c

c,c,c

51. Personal
income less
transfer payments in 1972
dollars

53. Wages and
salaries in
mining, mfg,,
and construction in 1972
dollars
(Ann, rate,
bil.dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)

C,C,C

47. Index of
industrial
production,
total

(1967-100)

c.c.c

c.c.c

C, L, L

73. Index of
industrial
production,
durable manufactures

74. Index of
industrial
production,
nondurable
manufactures

(1967=100)

(1967=100)

49. Value of
goods output
in 1972 dollars

(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)

1976

January
February
March

1,256.'6

1,326.9
1,338.9
1,348.3

1,015,2
1,023.6
1,029.2

871.5
877.6
882.6

217.2
218.7
221.0

125.9
127.6
128.3

116.0
118.4
119.5

137.5
139.9
140.3

571 ! 8

April
May
June

1,27K5

1,359.5
1,367,9
1,372.7

1,033.1
1,033.9
1,033.7

888.9
891.8
891.7

222.0
222.3
221.9

128.7
129.7
129.8

120.3
122.2
122,4

140.4
140.6
140.6

579*.8

July
August
September

1,283*.7

1,386.2
1,393.7
1,401.8

1,039.1
1,040.1
1,041.5

893.9
894.6
897.0

222.5
221.0
222.6

130.7
131.3
130.6

124.0
125.0
122.4

140.3
140.4
142.3

586 .'9

1,387 .'4

1,414.2
1,432.1
1,450.2

1,046.8
1,056.1
1,065.5

902.1
909.8
918.6

221.9
225.0
225.9

130.2
131,5
133.0

121.4
123.4
125.0

141.9
143.0
143.3

58K9

January
February .
March

l,31l!6

1,454.3
1,477.0
1,499,1

1,060.0
1,070.3
1,083.2

913.8
923,2
933.7

223.8
227.4
232.2

132.3
133.2
135.3

123.4
124.0
126.8

143.4
145.3
147.0

602 ,*4

April
May
Juno

...

1,330.'?

1,510.1
1,517,3
1,524.3

1,086.4
1,086.1
1,085.7

938.2
940,9
943.2

233.1
234.3
235.7

136.1
137.0
137.8

128.0
129.3
130.5

147.0
148.5
148.4

608 .'5

July
August
September .

1,347.'4

1,539.2
1,549.0
1,561.3

1,091,6
1,093.9
1,100.3

944.7
946.6
952.1

235.9
234.2
235.6

138.7
138.1
138.5

131.6
131.3
131.7

148.6
149.4
149,5

617.'6

[H>1,36(X2

1,584.0
1,602.3
1,622.7

1,112.4
1,120.5
E> 1,130.0

964.3
971.5
|H> 981.1

238.3
239.4
238.3

138.9
139.3
r!39,7

132.4
132.7
r133.4

149.6
150.1
r!50.9

15)624! 4

pi, 358^3

rl .625.2
rl,632.8
B>pl,652.2

rl,120.8
1,119.1
el, 127.0

r972.3
971.4
e978.8

r238.0
r239.9
®p243.4

H38.6
H39.0
B> p!41,0

r130.9
H31.9
B>pl34.3

r!49.8
r150.6
[fi>pl52.2

p615.9

October
November .
December

. .

1977

.,.

October
November
December
1978

January
February ,
March
April
May ...,
June
July
August
September
October
November
December .

...

NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ©. Current high values are indicated by JED; for
series that move counter to movements in general business activity, current low values are indicated by [H). Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or
order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 15, 20, 21, and 41.

62



APRIL 1978

KCII

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Con.

H

MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS
Minor Economic
Process

PRODUCTION AND
INCOME-Con.

Capacity Utilization

L, C, U

Timing Class

83. Rate of
capacity
utilization,
manufacturing
(BEA)

Year
and
month

JQ CONSUMPTION, TRADE, ORDERS, AND DELIVERIES

(Percent)

82. Rate of
capacity
utilization,
manufacturing
(FRB)
(Percent)

Orders and Deliveries

L, C, U

84. Rate of
capacity
utilization,
materials

(Percent)

1976

January
February
March

'si

6. Current
dollars

7. Constant
(1972) dollars

I, L, I

8. 'New orders
for consumer
goods and
materials in
1972 dollars

L, Lg, U

25. Change in
unfilled orders,
durable goods
industries

96. Manufacturers' unfilled
orders, durable
goods industries

(Bil.dol.)

(Bil.dol.)

(Bil.dol,)

(Bil.dol.)

{Bil.dol.)

Revised1

Revised1

Revised1

Revised1

31.34
31.91
32.88

-1.04
-0.35

80.'?

50.12
50.60
51.13

35.05
35.26
35.46

80 '. 8

81 .'2

52.09
50.92
50.91

8o!e

86!3

81 '.2

U 1,1

32. Vendor
performance,
companies reporting slower
deliveries®
(Percent
reporting)

Revised1

0.99

161.83
161.49
162.48

42
50
52

32.48
32.93
32.99

0.38
0.06
0.26

162.86
162.92
163.19

58
58
62

35.90
34.92
34.68

32.88
32.60
31.91

0.67

-1.36
0.11

163.86
162.50
162.61

60
64
60

51.70
53.49
56.44

34.93
36,00
37.73

31.51
33.10
34.23

1.36
0.71
1.75

163.98
164.69
166.44

50
48
45

80'.4

56.36
56.43
59.29

37.45
37.32
38.91

34.47
34.80
36.32

1.83
0.81
0.87

168.27
169.07
169,94

44
55
56

82*. 7

E>82',6

58.80
58.84
59.11

38.41
38.25
38.38

35.08
34.92
35.05

1.80
1.56
1.06

171.74
173,30
174.36

58
56
58

82*. 3

56.37
59.27
60.36

36.25
37.87
38.25

34.41
35.55
35.20

-1.10

H> 83.'6

0.62
1.08

173.27
173.89
174.97

59
58
56

82*.9

82 '.2

63.56
62.82
66.16

40.05
39.39
41.25

35,73
35.84
35.92

3.24
2.59
4.04

178.21
180.80
184.83

56
50
56

p82*.2

p8l',4

63.54
66.80
E)P68.23

39.22
40.88
Dp41.50

35.81
|H>36.98
P36.80

188.40
192.12
E>P196.29

55
64
E>67

80.' 3

*80

October
November
December

Value of manufacturers' new
orders, durable goods industries

L, L,l

32.55
33.79
35.39

79.' 3

*82

July
August
September

L, L, L

45,93
47.92
50.43

79.' i

*82

April
May
June

L, L, L

1977

January
February
March

..

*83

April
May
June

E>84

July
August
September

.. .

October
November
December

'82

*82

1978

January
February
March

..
{NA}

3.56
3.73

i)p4.17

April
May
June
July
August
September

. .

October
November
December

. .

NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ©. Current high values are indicated byE); for
series that move counter to movements in general business activity, current low values are indicated by [H). Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or
order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 13, 21, and 22.
x
See "New Features and Changes for This Issue," page iii.

APRIL 1978



63

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Con.

MAJOR ECONOMIC
f 3 ROCESS
Minor Economic
Process
Timing Class

C,C,C

C,C,C

56. Current
dollars
(Mil.dol.)

57. Constant
(1972) dollars
(Mil.dol.)

C,L,C

C, L,U

U, L,U

75. Index of inSales of retail stores
dustrial production consumer
54. Current
59. Constant
goods
dollars
(1972) dollars
(1967-100)

(Mil. dot.)

FIXED CAPITAL
INVESTMENT
Formation of Business Enterprises

Consumption and trade

Manufacturing and trade sales
Year
and
month

H

jraj CONSUMPTION, TRADE, ORDERS, AND DELIVERIES-Con.

(Mif. dol.)

uc,c

L, L, I

55. Personal
consumption
expenditures
automobiles

58. Index of
consumer
sentiment ®

(Ann. rate,
oil. dol.)

(IstQ
1966=100}

L, L, L

12. Index pf
net business
formation

(1987-100)

L, L, L

13. Number of
new business
incorporations

(Number)

1976

January
February
March

191,810
194,335
196,915

129,942
131,732
133,398

132.6
134,6
135,2

51,669
52,076
52,174

38,704
39,461
39,958

52*.7

84 '.5

US. 4
114,5
116.3

29,639
29,043
31,027

April
May
Juno

198,492
197,848
200,067

133,325
132,406
133,651

135.4
136.5
136.0

52,600
52,298
52,916

40,012
39,132
39,810

54 '.5

82.2

115.7
114.9
118.6

29,876
28,637
31,600

July
August
September

200,482
200,823
201,093

133,424
134,962
133,701

136.1
137,0
135.7

52,946
53,197
53,370

39,525
40,061
39,431

54^8

88!a

117,8
117.8
118,3

30,114
32,746
32,368

October
November
December

199,569
203,731
212,095

132,414
133,823
138,905

135.9
138.4
141.3

54,171
54,822
56,685

39,705
40,241
41,713

58*. i

8e!6

120.1
121.3
121.0

32,887
33,496
33,495

January
February
March

209,950
215,281
221,903

136,769
138,674
142,141

139.9
140.5
142.9

55,703
57,291
57,990

40,471
41,288
42,006

65^6

87^5

123.3
123.0
124.3

34,519
33,173
35,300

April
May
June

140,076
139,895
140,459

142.9
143.1
143.8

58,142
58,003
57,825

41,818
41,472
40,861

Des.'i

H>89.'i

...

221,167
221,327
222,240

122.4
123,2
125,8

33,394
34,442
37,229

July
August
September

221,255
223,604
224,242

140,084
141,406
141,616

145.4
144,7
144.9

58,552
59,020
59,014

41,165
41,186
41,211

62.3

87.' 6

126.6
130.6
129,6

35,749
39,525
37,812

October
November
December

227,536
230,386
236,249

142,944
143,568
H> 146, 406

144,9
145.2
145,8

60,778
61,588
62,054

42,325
42,681
1)42,766

63'. 2

sail

132.0
133.5
r!34.8

38,943
38,344
B>r39,674

r228,609
»p236,617

r!40,370
p!44,174

r!41.5
r!43,8
[H>pl46.8

r59,875
r61,692
»p62,847

r40,842
r41 ,825
p42,407

83,7
84.3
78.8

r!34.9
|H)el35.6

p36,431

p63.'6

1977

1978

January
February
March

(NA)

(NA)

(NA)

(NA)

April
May
June
July
August
September
October .
November
December
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ®. Current high values are indicated by[H); for
series that move counter to movements in general business activity, current low values are indicated by 0). Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or
order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "N A", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 13,15, 23, and 24.

64



APRIL 1978

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
B

CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS —Con.

MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS

Hj FIXED CAPITAL INVESTMENT-Con.

Minor Economic
Process

Business Investment Commitments
L, L, L

Timing Class

L, L, L

Value of manufacturers' new orders,
capital goods industries, nondefense

Contracts and orders for plant
and equipment
Year
and
month

10. Current
dollars

20. Constant
(1972) dollars

(Bil.dol.)
Revised

1976

27. Constant
(1972) dollars

24. Current
dollars
(Bil.dol.)

(Bil.dol.)
3

U L, L

L, L, L

3

Revised

3

Revised

L, C, U

U, Ig, U

C, Lg, Lg

9. Construction contracts for commercial and industrial buildings, floor
space1

11. Newly
approved capital
appropriations,
1,000 manufacturing corporations1

97. Backlog of
capital appropriations, manufactur-

(Bil.dol.)

(Bil. dot.)

Square feet

(Millions)

(Bil.dol.)

Square meters2

(Millions)

3

Revised

14.35
13.97
15.10

10.40
10.18
10.73

11.13
11.44
11.89

8.16
8.41
8.49

44.27
50.95
52.32

4.11
4.73
4.86

11 ! 38

14.29
13.41
15.82

10.38

8.69
8.76
8.77

52.83
52.65
53.85

4.91
4.89
5.00

12^22

11.15

11.85
12.21
12.35

July
August
September

15.97
14.81
16.43

11.28
10.48
11.48

12.90
12.35
13.24

9.17
8.78
9.28

52.21
50.78
48.53

4.85
4.72
4.51

nisa

October
November
December

16.85
15.78
16.09

11.76
10.95
11.16

13.80
12.86
13.70

9.66
8.94
9.53

51.47
52.53
54.81

4.78
4.88
5.09

14.*36

17.15
17.13
16.69

11.79
11.71
11.40

14.67
14.32
14.61

10.12

4.98
4.76
6.27

14*.63

10.01

53.56
51.27
67.45

17.57
19.18
18.49

11.99
12.98
12.37

14.69
14.89
15.49

10.08
10.16
10.42

55.88
63.20
61.12

5.19
5.87
5.68

15!65

16.58
18.31
20.20

11.05
12.21
13.22

13.94
14.53
16.12

9.32
9.76

5.43
6.60
6.30

H)17.'69

10.59

58.48
71.07
67.79

17.89
18.63
20.83

11.78
12.08
13.40

16.10
16.09
16.99

10.63
10.48
10.99

63.06
70.62
72.04

5,86
6,56
6.69

pi 7 * 6 5

20.42
E> 22.76
p21.05

13.00
E>14.42
p!3.40

16.51
i>17.88
p!7.70

10.82
1)11.41
pll.34

0)83.03
67.86
71.94

G)7,71

January
February
March
April
May
June

.

....

9.59

1

ing

4e!o7
46^39

45^89

47^53

1977

January
February
March

. .

April
May
June
July
August
September

....
....

October
November
December

9.83

49^29

50 .*74

54*20

®p57!27

1978

January
February
March

6.30
6.68

(NA)
(NA)

April
May
June
July
August
September

....

October
November
December

....

NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by @. Current high values are indicated by H); for
series that move counter to movements in general business activity,current low values are indicated by (H). Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or
order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
G^phsoftJ,™
it may not be reproduced without written permission from the source agency:
McGraw-Hill Information Systems Company, F . W . Dodge Division (series 9) or The Conference Board ("series 11 and 97).
Converted
to metric units by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. 3See "New Features and Changes for This Issue,11 page iii.

) APRIL 1978



65

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
B I

CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS -Con.

MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS

Q FIXED CAPITAL INVESTMENT-Con.

Minor Economic
Process ,
.....
Timing Class

Year
and
month

Residential Construction
Commitments and Investment

Business Investment Expenditures

C, Lg, Lg

C, Lg, Lg

61, Business
expenditures
for new plant
and equipment,
total

69. Machinery
and equipment
sales and business
construction
expenditures

(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)

C, Lg, U

C, Lg, C

Lg, Lg, Lg

C, Lg, C

76, Index of
N onresidential fixed investment in 1972 dollars
industrial production, business
87. Structures
86. Total
88. Producers'
equipment
durable equip.
(1967-100)

(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)

L, L, L

28. New
private housing
units started,
total

(Ann. rate,
thous.)

L,L,l

29. Index of
new private
housing units
authorized by
local building
permits
(1967-100)

L, L,L

89. Residential
fixed investmerit, total, in
1972 dollars
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)

Revised1

1976

January
February .
March

114^72

159.22
164.46
166.91

131.4
132.8
134.2

113*7

36^8

76^8

1,262
1,452
1,427

102.1
101.3
101.8

April . . .
May
June

118J2

167.83
170.20
169.58

134.4
134.8
136.2

115^9

37.' 1

7s!g

1,405
1,468
1,508

101.9
100.8

July
August
September

122^55

170.85
174.95
174.51

137.9
137.6
137.0

m!5

37J

8K4

1,410
1,546
1,753

105.9
112.7
127.6

47J

October . .
November
December

125.*22

175.12
176.88
184.22

135.7
140.1
142.3

119.'6

37^3

81 '.7

1,662
1,680
1,824

127.6
136.4
132.0

52!b

January
February
March

130J6

181.13
183.42
190.52

142.3
143,5
144.8

124^3

37^6

87^3

1 S 393
1,751
2,090

114.9
131.5
145.4

52'.7

April
May
June

134^24

190.19
191.94
189.78

147,1
148.9
150.1

126^4

38.' 2

88!l

1,899
1,982
1,931

138.3
139.2
144,6

57^6

July
August
September

[H)14o!38

195.86
200.77
203.19

151.2
151.1
152.1

127^6

38!9

88^7

2,072
2,038
2,012

141.2
152.7
146.1

57^5

October
November
December

iss'.ii

206.02
205,21
208,06

152,6
153.5
r!54.0

128^9

D39!4

89!s

2,139
2,096
[H)2,203

159.4
B>163.1
156.1

|H> 5 9 ^ 9

January
February ,
March . . .

al46!25

206,02
[H}210,84

r!52.9
154.8
^p!56.7

E>pl29.'4

p39.*2

fH>p90.'2

r 1,548
r 1,5 74
p2,074

128.9
130.2
144.1

p59.'6

April
May
June ....

a149J6

44^8

96.5

47J

1977

1978

(NA)

July
August
September
October
November
December

_j
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ®. Current high values are indicated by ED; for
series that move counter to movements in general business activity, current low values are indicated by[R). Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or
order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 14,25, and 26.
l
See "New Features and Changes for This Issue," page ill.

66



APRIL 1978

ltd)

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
B

CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS —Con.

MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS . . . ; . . . .

|Q INVENTORIES AND INVENTORY INVESTMENT

Minor Economic
Process

Inventory Investment

L, 1,1

Timing Class

Year
and
month

L, L, L

1,1,1

36. Change in inventories on
30. Change in
hand and on order in 1972
business inven- dollars
tories in 1972
Monthly
dollars
Smoothed
data
data1
(Ann. rate,
{Ann. rate,
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
bil.dol.)
bil.dol.)
2

Revised

1976

January .
February . .
March ...

9.7

Inventories on Hand and on Order

Revised

31. Change
in book value
of mfg. and
trade inventories, total
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
2

L L, L

Lg, Lg, Lg

38. Change
in stocks of
materials and
supplies on
hand and on
order, mfg.
(Bil.dol.)
Revised

Lg, Lg, Lg

Lg, Lg, Lg

Manufacturing and trade
inventories, book value
71. Current
dollars
(Bil.dol.)

65. Mfrs.'
inventories of
finished
70. Constant goods, book
(1972) dollars value
(Bil.dol.}

(Bil.dol.)

Lg, Lg, Lg

77. Ratio,
constantdollar inventories to
sales, mfg.
and trade
(Ratio)

78. Stocks of
materials and
supplies on
hand and on
order, mfg.
(Bil.dol.}
Revised2

Revised2

2

L, Lg, Lg

1.54

283.37
285.27
287.63

216.93
217.66
218.75

49.65
49.98
50.33

1.67
1.65
1.64

126.48
126.34
127,88

26.1
33.0
42.3

0.45
1.10
0.65

289.81
292.55
296.08

219.59
220,52
222.25

50.69
51.05
51.95

1.65
1.67
1.66

128.33
129.43
130.08

13.95
12.90
11.15

21.8
30.3
36.5

0,19

-0.69
0.51

297.90
300.43
303.47

222.90
224.48
225,76

52.43
53.05
53.59

1.67
1.66
1.69

130.27
129.58
130.09

9.94
8.03
3.50

21.2
11.0

0.48
1.42
0,41

305.23
306.15
306.32

226.27
226.25
225.90

54.33
53.93
54.11

E>1.71
1.69
1.63

130.57
131.99
132.40

9.67

3.24
7.24

32.9
26.0

14.24

11.78

0,86
1.55

309.06
311.23
314.88

227.06
227.47
228.47

54.38
54.59
54.79

1.66
1.64
1.61

134.17
135.03
136.58

7,60

16.00
12.72

12.56
11.56
12.36

36.0
31.4
28.9

0.86
1.38
0.15

317.87
320.49
322.90

229.10
230.24
231.61

55.21
56.31
56.89

1.64
1.65
1.65

137.44
138.81
138.96

12.65
14.54
B>15.84

14.5
32.9
31.9

-0.78
0.92
1.10

324.11
326.85
329.51

232.73
234.40
235.36

57.49
57.57
57.97

1.66
1.66
1.66

138,18
139.10
140.21

0.60
0.62
1.48

330.46
332.67
332.64

235.42
236.39
236.47

58.50
59.07
58.91

1.65
1,65
1.62

140.80
141.42
142.90

1.33
1.60
(NA)

237,44
r335.76
[H)p338.25 ®p237.96

E>59.68
59.57

7.26
8,65

17.39

April
May
June

12J

14.06
20.22

July
August
September

}3.8

11.30
12.48

October
November
December

-lie

9.34

5.81

6.30

-0.68
-2.70

-4.84
-1.75
6.13

18.4
22.8
28.3

-0.14

11.45
12.69
14.07

2.1

0.28

1977

January
February .
March
April
May
June

19.91
9^7

U.2

|H>43.7

July
August
September

[H)!^?

10.88
H> 24.05
12.49

October
November
December

8.' 7

17.50

14.54
12.18

5.06

9.85

11.4
26.6
-0.5

11.74
p9.85

r31.2
p25,0

(NA)

(NA)

3.28

E)1.77

1978

January
February
March

pll',3

22.02
p-12.54
(NA)

(NA)

(NA)

rl.69
pi. 65
(NA)

144.23
D145.83
(NA)

April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted seriesare indicated by @. Current high values are indicated byE); for
series that move counter to movements in general business activity,current low values are indicated by[H). Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or
order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 14,16,27, and 28.
1
Series is a weighted 4-term moving average (with weights 1,2,2,1) placed at the terminal month of the span.
2
See "New Features and Changes for This Issue," page iii.

APRIL 1978



67

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Con.

MAJOR ECONOMIC
PRQCFSS
. ..

BH PRICES, COSTS, AND PROFITS

Minor Economic
Process

Stock
Prices

Sensitive Commodity Prices

U,L, L

1,1,1

Timing Class

92. Change in sensitive prices
Year
and
month

Monthly
data

Smoothed
data2

(Percent)

(Percent)

23. Index of
industrial
materials
prices©
(1967=100)

L(L,L

19. Index of
stock prices,
500 common
stocks®
(1941-43-10)

Profits and Profit Margins

U L, L

I, L, I

Corporate profits after taxes
16. Current
dollars
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)

18. Constant
(1972) dollars
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)

l,C,L

Corporate profits after taxes
with IVAandCCA 1
79. Current
dollars
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)

L, L, L

L, C, L

80. Constant
(1972) dollars
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol)

22. Ratio,
profits (after
taxes) to total
corporate
domestic income
(Percent)

1976

January
February
March
April
May
June

183.6
186.6
193.2

96.86
100.64
101.08

96!i

67*.2

63^4

47^5

i6!s

1.93

0.66
0.76
0.55

2.28
0.29
1.77

0.71
1.18
1.47

200.9
202.7
205,2

101.93
101.16
101.77

93J

68*. 6

63 !i

4e!a

[H>l6!5

2.46
0.08

214.1
209.6
206.2

104.20
103.29
BIOS. 45

94^6

68 '.5

67^6

49^6

l6.'2

-0.75

1.48
1.47
1.02

4.17
3.85

0.88
1.79

201,6
201,0
203.2

101.89
101.19
104.66

9CL9

65.*6

59^2

43J

9^9

0.84
0.20
1.11

210.2
216.4
83)222.8

103.81
100.96
100.57

97^2

69^2

6l!6

43^8

l6!6

2.01
1.46
0.38

221.9
218.1
206.4

99.05
98.76
99.29

104.*3

E>73!2

70^5

49!9

l6!2

-0.05
-0.02
rO.25

204.1
202.7
202.9

100.18
97.75
96.23

103^6

7K5

E>79!7

»55!4

io!6

rO.48
rO.64
rl.02

204.7
203.8
210.9

93.74
94.28
93.82

DH05.0

7K3

r71,5

r49.0

10.*2

rl.60
rl.64

219.7
219.9
219.8

90.25
88.98
88,82

(NA)

(NA)

(NA)

221.2

"92.49

1.37

-1.61

. ..

July
August
September
October
November
December

-3.08

D2.03

1977

January
February
March

....

April
May
June

-0.64
0)4.80
1.42
0.25
0.61

-0.85

July
August
September
October . ....
November
December

-0.07
1.08

rO.32
0.18

rl.73
2.01

1978

January
February
March
April
May
June

1.91
0.27
1.03

1.23
9

(NA)

(NA)

July
August
September
October
November
December
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ©, Current high values are indicated by[H); for
series that move counter to movements in general business activity, current low values are indicated by [H). Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or
order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.

Graphs of these series are shown on pages 14, 29, and 30.XIVA means inventory valuation adjustment; CCA means capital consumption adjustment.
"Series is a weighted 4-term moving average (with weights 1,2,2,1) placed at the terminal month of the span. 3Average for
April 4, 11, and 18. "Average for April 5, 12, 19, and 26.




APRIL 1978

KUI

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Con.

MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS

Q| PRICES, COSTS, AND PROFITS-Con.

Minor Economic
Process

Profits and Profit Margins-Con.

L, L, L

U L,L

U, L,L

Timing Class

81. Ratio,
profits (after

Cash Flows

15. Prof its (after 17. Ratio, price
taxes) per dollar to unit labor

L, L, L

Unit Labor Costs and Labor Share

Lg, Lg, Lg

UL,L

Net cash f lovv, corporate

Lg, Lg, Lg '

Lg, Lg, Lg

Lg, Lg, Lg

63. Index of
unit labor cost,

68. Labor cost
per unit of real

62. Index of
labor cost per

64. Compensation of employ-

sector

product, nonfinancial
corporations

manufacturing

of national
income

taYP<;l w/ith IV/A

Year
and
month

and CCA to
corp. domestic
income1

manufacturing
corporations

(Percent)

(Cents)

manufacturing

(1967=100)

34. Current
dollars
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

35. Constant
(1972) dollars
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

(1967=100)

(Dollars)

(1967=100)

(Percent)

1976

January
February
March

6.9

5.5

121.9
122.7
122.4

151.0

109.3

165.1

0.870

143.9
143.1
143.8

75.7

April
May
June

6.8

H>5.6

122.4
123.0
123.5

154.0

110.3

167.1

0.880

144.7
144.5
144.8

75.7

July
August
September

7.1

5.3

|H)124.4
124.3
123 3

1 56 . 2

110.2

169.4

0.892

144.5
144.7
146.7

75.9

October
November
December

6 1

5 0

123 1
123 0
123 5

153 0

106 3

173 0

0 916

147.4
147 9
148 4

H)76 6

5.9

5.3

122.1
121.5
122.3

160.7

110.5

175,2

0.930

150.8
152.6
152.8

76.5

6.6

5.5

123.1
123.6
123.2

167.6

178.5

0.943

153.4
153.9
154.6

76.0

July
August ,
September

H>7.5

5.0

123.6
123.8
123.7

167.0

111.2

179.7

0.949

154.5
154.4
155.1

75.8

October
November
December

6.7

5.4

123.0
122.8
H22.0

IBS rl 69.0

rllO.4

r!82.1
.. .

E>0.964

157.0
157.7
rl59.4

75.9

r!63.2
r!65 0
53) pi 66 1

(NA)

1977

January
February
March
April
May
June

.
.
...

...

0)113.8

1978

January
February .
March

( NA}

(NA}

r!20 1
H19 8
nllQ 7

(NA)

(NA)

[H)pl89.9

(NA)

April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to containno seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ®. Current high values are indicated bySD; for
series that move counter to movements in general business activity, current low values are indicated by[H>. Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or
order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 16, 30,and 31.
r
!VA means inventory valuation adjustment; CCA means capital consumption adjustment.

APRIL 1978



69

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Con.

MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS

^1 MONEY AND CREDIT

Minor Economic
Process

Velocity of Money

Money

1,1,1

Timing Class

SB. Change in
money supply
(M1)

Year
and
month

(Percent)

102. Change
in money
supply plus
time deposits
at commercial
banks (M2)
(Percent)

1976

L, L, L

1,1.1

L, C, U

104. Change in total liquid assets

Monthly
data

Smoothed
data1

(Percent)

(Percent)

Revised2

Revised2

105. Money
supply (Ml)
in 1972
dollars

c,c,c

L, L, L

106. Money
supply (M2)
in 1972
dollars

107. Ratio,
gross national
product to
money supply
(Ml)

(Bil.dol.)

(Bil.dol.)

(Ratio)

C, lg,C

Credit Flows

L,L,U

33. Net change
108. Ratio,
personal income in mortgage debt
to money supply held by financial
institutions and
(M2)
life insurance
companies
(Ann. rote,
(Ratio)
oil. del.)

January
February
March

0.48
0.68
0.47

1.01
1.27
0.68

0.88
0.88
0.67

0.99
0.92
0.82

222.0
223.1
223.6

503.3
508.8
511.0

5.547

1.978
1.971
1.971

49.33
49.21
57.10

April
May
June

0.73
0.60
0.07

0.94
0.78
0.42

0.85
0.89
0.70

0.80
0.80
0.81

224.2
224.2
223.4

513.3
514.3
514.3

5.588

1.969
1.966
1.965

49.75
43,73
46,74

July
August
September

0.20
0.56
0.33

0.74
0.84
0.92

0.92
0.73
0.84

0.82
0.81
0.81

223.0
223.2
223.0

516.0
517.9
520.5

5,652

1.970
1,964
1.957

54,76
52.52
50.71

October
November
December

1.08
0.16
0.64

0.91
1.04

1.04
0.73
0.74

0.85
0.87
0.85

224.5
224.3
224.8

525.1
528,6
532.0

5.643

1.950
1.956
1.961

55,18
66.28
64.81

0.92
0.76
0.80

0.95
1.13
0.85

0.82
0.87
0.96

224.7
223,5
223.6

532.6
531.5
532.4

5.721

1.948
1.964
1.977

53.69
58,24
71.41

0.12
0.59

0.90
0.46
0.75

0.91
0.62
0.71

0.97
0.88
0.77

224.3
223.3
223.5

532.7
532.2
533.6

5.791

1.974
1.975
1.969

81.41
84.26
[H)96.78

July
August
September

0.99
0.52
0.73

1.12
0.64
0,75

0.97
1.06

0.78
0.87
0,99

225.0
225.3
226.1

537.8
539.2
541.1

5.8i6

1.966
1.966
1.967

76.87
85.91
94.13

October
November
December

0.90
0.03
0.60

0.81
0.45
0.47

1.07

[H>227.4
226.4
226.8

543.7
543.8
E> 544.1

5.851

1.980
1.993
2.009

88.48
88.43
93.00

0.80

226.8
225.2
p224.0

543.7
542.2
p540.3

EDP5.870

1.998
r2.000
Dp2.014

rBl.90
P76.45

B)1.28

1977

January
February
March

0.74
0.44
0.63

April
May
June

i>1.16
.

i.n

Dl.26
1.06
0.89

Di.n
1.10

1978

January .
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September

-0.09
pO.29

0.74
0.37

1.01
0.68

1.03
0.92

pO,44

pO.59

pO.81

9

a

1.30

(NA)

0.93

....

October
November
December
NOTE: Series ara seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ©. Current high values are indicated by[H); for
series that move counter to movements in general business activity, current low values are indicated by[R). Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or
order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 14,32, and 33.
l
Serie"s is a weighted 4-term moving average (with weights 1,2,2,1) placed at the terminal month of the span.
2
See "New Features and Changes for This Issue," page iil.
3
Average for weeks ended April 5, 12, and 19.

70




APRIL 1978 IM:II

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Con.

MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS

^H MONEY AND CREDIT-Con.

Minor Economic
Process

Credit Flows-Con.

L,L,L

Timing Class

112. Net change
in bank loans
to businesses

Year
and
month

(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)

L, L, L

113. Net
change in
consumer installment
debt
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)

Credit Difficulties

L,L,L

110. Total
private
borrowing

(Ann. rate,
mil. dol.)

L,L,L

14. Current
liabilities
of business
failures @

(Mil. dol.)

Bank Reserves

L(L,L

L, Lg, U

L,U,U

L, Lg, Lg

94. Member
bank borrowing from the
Federal
Reserve®

39. Delinquency 93. Free
rate, 30 days
reserves @
and over, consumer installment loans
(Percent)

Interest Rates

(Mil. dol.)

(Mil. dol.)

119. Federal
funds rate©

(Percent)

C, Lg, Lg

114. Treasury
bill rate©

(Percent)

1976

January
February
March

11 .59
4.00
-34.49

15.97
21.14
20.45

177,260

257.07
211.76
247.65

2.49
2.46
2.45

130
-62
378

79
76
58

4,87
4.77
4.84

4 96
4.85
5.05

April
May
June

-36.50
4.43
6,04

22.93
21 .13
18.41

185,504

206.42
233.28
373.64

2.34
2.41
2.40

45
261
-3

44
121
120

4.82
5.29
5.48

4.88
5.18
5,44

July
August
September

-10.19
-5.72
7 16

17.36
18,34
21 97

204,444

305.55
263.96
250 32

2.39
2.39

-53
193
212

123
104
75

5.31
5.29

5 25

5.28
5.15
5 08

October
November
December

9.70

10.88
3.47

13.09
19 61
29.30

229,796

123
280

66
84
62

5.03
4.95
4.65

4.93
4.81
4.35

7 88
15 76
9 48

25 87
23 81
[H}35.65

433

255 624

61
79
110

4 61
4 68

4 60
4 66
4.61

2 53
r8.18
r!3.91

34 78
31 86
29 06

276 100

73
200
262

4 73
5 35

r-0 65
H3.04
r5 93

29 57
31 81
28 21

[H> 297, 804

336
1,071
634

5.42
5.90

rll 70

31 51
34.24
32.83

183.57
277.60
200.44

2 36
2.53

[H)2.19
2.40

no

1977

January
February
March

,

April
May
June
July
August
September

.. .

October
November
December

r!4.05
r2 35

p287,036

168 54
194 20
248 20

2 37
2 37
2.37

155

207 27
473 89
305 86

2 40
2 43

-62
72

577 82
338 25
[H)96 99

2 41

115 69
200.29
168.32

2.38

2.34

2 36
2.41
2.24

2 36

-114

-149

12
-872
-443

[H> -980

4.69

5.39

[H>1 ,319

-705
-384

840
558

-176

481
405
p344

4 54
4 94
5.00

6 14

5.15
5.50
5.77

6.47
6.51
6.56

6.19
6.16
6.06

6.70
6.78

6.45
[H>6.46
6.32

1978

January
February
March

rll 93
liT>r/>d ?n
p21 12
1

on 71

April
May
June

29 09
31 93
(NA)

(NA)

^w/n
\nt\)

(NA)

r-272
p-36

*-193

X

381

E)6,79
2

6.84

3

6.31

July
August
September
October
November
December
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ©. Current high values are indicated by H); for
series that move counter to movements in general business activity, current low values are indicated by |H>. Series numbers are fondentification only and do not reflect series relationships or
order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 33, 34, and 35.
1
Average for weeks ended April 5, 12, and 19. 2Average for weeks ended April 5, 12, 19, and 26. 3Average for weeks ended
April 6, 13, 20, and 27.

II APRIL 1978



'1

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS-Con.

MAJOR ECONOMIC
PRQCFSS
Minor Economic
Process
.

RHj MONEY AND CREDST-Con.
Interest Rates-Con.

...

Timing Class

Lg, lg, Lg

C, Lg, Lg

U, Lg, Lg

116. Corporate
bond yields®

11 5. Treasury
bond yields©

117. Municipal
bondyields@

(Percent)

(Percent)

(Percent)

Year
and
month

Lg, Lg, Lg

Outstanding Debt
Lg, Lg, Lg

118. Secondary 67. Bank rates
market yields
on short-term
onFHA
business loans x
mortgages©
®

(Percent)

(Percent)

Lg, Lg, Lg

Lg, Lg, Lg

109. Average
prime rate
charged by
banks©

66. Consumer
installment
debt

(Percent)

(Mil.dol.)

Lg, Lg, Lg

72. Commercial
and industrial
loans outstanding, weekly
reporting large
commercial
banks
(Mil.dol.)

Lg, Lg, Lg

95. Ratio,
consumer installment debt
to personal
income
(Percent)

1976

January
February
March

8.97
8.71
8.73

6.93
6.92
6.88

7.07
6.94
6.92

9.06
9.04
(NA)

7^54

7.00
6.75
6.75

161,283
163,045
164,749

120,242
120,575
117,701

12.15
12.18
12.22

April
May
Juno

8.68
9.00
8.90

6.73
7.01
6.92

6.60
6.87
6.87

8.82
9.03
9.05

7.*44

6.75
6.75
7.20

166,660
168,421
169,955

114,659
115,028
115,531

12.26
12.31
12.38

July
August
...
September

8.76
8.59
8.37

6.85
6.82
6.70

6.79
6,61
6.51

8.99
8.93
8.82

7i80

7.25
7.01
7,00

171,402
172,930
174,761

114,682
114,205
114,802

12.36
12.41
12.47

October
November
December

8.25
8.17
7.90

6.65
6.62
6.38

6,30
6,29
5.94

8.55
8.45
8.25

7.*28

6.78
6.50
6.35

175,852
177,486
179,928

115,610
116,517
116,806

12.43
12.39
12.41

January
February
March

7.96
8.18
8.33

6.68
7.16
7.20

5.87
5.89
5.89

8.40
8.50
8.58

y'.is
7,50

6,25
6,25
6.25

182,084
184,068
187,039

117,463
118,776
119,566

12.52
12.46
12.48

April
May
June

8.30
8.38
8.08

7.13
7.17
6.99

5.73
5.75
5.62

8.57
(NA)
8.74

7.52
7.37
7.93

6.25
6.41
6,75

189,937
192,592
195,014

119,777
r!20,459
rl21,618

12.58
12.69
12,79

July
August
September

8.12
8.06
8.12

6.98
7.01
6.94

5.63
5.62
5.51

8.74
8.74
8.72

7.96
7.87
8.22

6.75
6.83
7.13

197,478
200,129
202,480

r!21,564
r!22,651
H23.H5

12.83
12.92
12.97

October
November
December

8.21
8.26
8.39

7.08
7,16
7.24

5,64
5,49
5.57

8.78
8.78
8.91

8.35
8.66
D8.77

7.52
7.75
7.75

205,106
207,959
210,695

r!24,120
r!25,291
rl 25, 487

12.95
12.98
12.98

8.70
8.70
[H),8.70

7.51
7.60
D7.63

5.71
5.62
5.61

9,11
(NA)
D9.29

(NA)

7.93
8.00
»8.00

213*119
r!26,481
r!28,539
H)215,780
(NA) (H)pl30,299

13.11
|H}pl3.22
(NA)

1977

1978

January
February
March

3

April
May
June
July
August
September . .

8.84

a

7.73

3

5.76

"8.00

9

132,025

,

October
November
December
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to containno seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ®. Current high values are indicated by[H); for
series that move counter to movements in general business activity, current low values are indicated by (H). Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or
order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 16,35, and 36. »Beginning February 1977, data are monthly and represent the banking system.
2
Average for weeks ended April 7, 14, and 21. 3Average for weeks ended April 6, 13, and 20. *Average for April 1
through 25. 3Average for weeks ended April 5, 12, and 19.

72



APRIL 1978

ltd)

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
DIFFUSION INDEXES AND RATES OF CHANGE

01 DIFFUSION INDEXES
950. Twelve leading
indicator components
(series 1,3, 8, 12, 19,
20,29,32,36,92,104,

Year
and
month

951. Four roughly
coincident indicator
components (series
41,47,51,57)

952. Six lagging
indicator components
(series 62, 70, 72, 91,
95, 109}

961 . Average workweek
of production workers,
manufacturing (21
industries)

105)

1-month
span

6-month
span

1 -month
span

6-month
span

1 -month
span

6-month
span

1-month
span

9-month
span

962. Initial claims for
State unemployment
insurance, week including the 12th
(51 areas)

1 -month
span
C1)

1976

9-month
span

963. Number of employees on private
nonagricultural payrolls
(172 industries)

1-month
span

6-month
span

(l)

January
February
March

58.3
66.7
70.8

75.0
91.7
79.2

100.0
100.0
100.0

100.0
100,0
100.0

50.0
33.3
75.0

16.7
66.7
58.3

73.8
33.3
31.0

90.5
64.3
59.5

94.1
41.2
10.8

76.5
69.6
70.6

78.5
77.9
74.1

83.1
81.7
79.9

April
May
June

50.0
54.2
54.2

75.0
66.7
62.5

100.0

100.0
100.0

75.0
75,0
83.3

83.3
83.3
83.3

11.9
92.9
23.8

52.4
19.0
11.9

52.9
56.9

22.5
29.4
17.6

79.4
66.6
54.1

79.4
70.9
68,6

July.
August
September

41.7
37.5
33.3

50.0
54.2
66.7

50.0
66.7
75.0

100.0

100.0
100,0

66.7
83.3

38.1
23.8
23.8

40.5
50.0
52.4

66.7
29.4
38.2

17.6
62.7
56.9

57.3
47.1
69.8

57.0
57.3
63.7

October
November
December

54.2
58.3
58.3

50.0
58.3
75.0

100.0
100.0
100.0

66.7
41.7
50.0

83.3
83.3
83.3

69.0
73.8
54.8

61.9
71.4
71.4

90.2
29.4
90.2

37.3
88,2
88.2

42.4
69.5
73.0

69.8
73.5
78,5

29.2
50.0
83.3

r83.3
r75,0

100.0
100.0
100.0

66.7
75.0
91.7

83.3
83.3

100.0

97.6
47.6

88.1
92.9
81.0

39.2
25.5
49.0

74.5
70.6
68.6

75.0
73.5
82.3

89.0
86.6
83.1

r54.2
37.5

r50.0
r75.0

75.0
75.0

100.0
100.0

83.3
83.3

r66.7

54.2

100.0

75.0

100.0

100.0
100.0
100.0

42.9
57.1
73.8

69.0
69.0
95.2

68.6
23.5
37.3

57.8
53.9
74.5

77.6
68.6
63.7

80,5
71.5
68.0

50.0
79.2
50.0

r62.5

75.0
75.0

r58.3

100.0
100.0
100.0

54.8
57.1

57.1
64.3

100.0

100.0
100.0
100.0

80,4
24.5
82.4

65,7
82.4
68.6

65.7
50.0
61.3

68.3
68.3
72.1

70.8

58.3
58.3

100.0
100.0
100.0

75.0

83.3

100.0

76.5
41.2
90.2

p70.6

100.0
3
100.0

59.9
75.9
73.8

r75.0
r80.8
p82,8

62.5

100.0
75.0

100.0
50.0
25.0

100.0
100.0

75.0
75.0

0.0

1977

January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November .
December

....

62.5

66.7
70.8

r75.0
54,2

25.0

100.0
100.0

2

60,0

83,3
83.3

66.7

100.0
100.0
"100.0

7.1

9.5

81.0
52.4
47.6

4.8

r26.2
p59.5

(NA)

1978
37.5
62,5

January
February
March

2

35.0

25.0
75.0
3

100.0

100.0
100.0
"87.5

0.0
r74.8
P88.1

33.1

p45.1
(NA)

r66.9
r70.3
p73.8

April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December

....
....

NOTE: Figures are the percent of series components rising. (Half of the unchanged components are counted as rising.) Data are centered within the spans: 1-month indexes are placed on
the 2d month, 6-month indexes on the 4th month, and 9-month indexes on the 6th month of the span. Diffusion indexes 961, 962, and 963 are computed from seasonally adjusted components; indexes 950,951, and 952 are computed from the components of the composite indexes. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; and "NA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on page 37.
x
See "New Features and Changes for This Issue, " page iii.
2
Excludes series 12 and 36 for which data, are not yet available.
3
Excludes series 57 for which data are not yet available.
^Excludes series 70 and 95 for which data are not yet available.

ItCII APRIL 1978



73

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
C

DIFFUSION INDEXES AND RATES OF CHANGE—Con.

HB DIFFUSION INDEXES-Con.

Year
and
month

964. Value of manufacturers' new orders,
durable goods industries (35 industries)

1 -month
span

1976

9-month
span

965. Newly approved
capital appropriations,
deflated, The
Conference Board'
{17 industries)

1-quarter
span

967. Index of industrial
materials prices ®
(13 industrial materials)

1 -month
span

9-month
span

988. Index of stock
prices, 500 co mm on
stocks® (62-65
industries)2

1 -month
span

969. Profits, manufacturing, Cit bank
(about 1,000 corporations)

1-quarter
span

4-0 moving
avg.

1 -month
span

6-month
span

9-month
span

83.3
83.3
83.3

65.4
61.5
73.1

65.4
65.4
80.8

100.0
83.1
53.1

90.8
93.8
95.4

63

*57

68.8
83.3
64.6

68.8
66.7
70.8

65.4
65.4
69.2

69.2
73.1
65.4

31.5
41.5
50.8

89.2
93.8
64.6

55

*55

66.7
68.8
52.1

70.8
70.8
75.0

73.1
34.6
34.6

57,7
61.5
76.9

80.0
43.1
56.2

45.4
56.5
62.9

53

*54

52.1
62.5
60.4

66.7
77.1
83.3

50.0
61.5
65.4

76.9
73.1
69.2

15.4
50.8
91.9

57.3
56.5
48.4

55

*57

50.0
58.3
54.2

81.2
91.7
85.4

69.2
73.1
80.8

57.7
50.0
50.0

46.0
27.4
43.5

33.0
43.5
54.8

55

'56

37.5
75.0
58.3

83.3
75.0
83.3

34.6
34.6
15.4

50.0
46.2
46.2

49.2
37.0
46.0

54.8
29.0
17.7

60

p53

60.4
72.9
58.3

87.5
79.2
r66.7

34.6
50.0
50.0

45.8
"29.2
A
41.7

56.5
23.4
15.3

26.6
27.4
22.6

53

(NA)

62.5
43.8
62.5
66.7
58.3
r70.8

r66.7
r72.9
p79.2

50.0
"37.5
57.7

M5.8
"62.5
* 75.0

11.3
66.9
45.8

19.4
16.1

61

4-quartDr
span ©

Revised3 Revised3

January
February
March

67.1
74.3
65.7

91.4
94.3
97.1

56

April
May
Juno

54.3
48.6
45.7

80.0
91.4
84.3

62

July

82.9
78.6
88.6

44

September

71.4
48.6
51.4

October
November
December

61.4
60.0
71.4

82.9
85.7
82.9

59

January
February
March

60.0
48.6
77.1

91.4
88.6
77,1

50

April
May
June

31.4
60.0
45.7

82.9
82.9
82.9

74

July
August
September

37.1
68.6
65.7

85.7
85.7
80.0

42

October
November
December

62.9
65.7
65.7

88.6
p85.7

p45

AUQUSt

986. Index of industrial
production (24
industries)

'69

'65

*64

*73

1977

A

5

*72

'73

p74

1978
January
February
March
April
May
June

40.0
71.4
p48.6

(NA)

69.2
34.6
46.2

r37.5
r60.4
p95.8
S

8.1
30.6
50.0

pS2

57.7

July
August
September
October
November
December
NOTE: Figures are the percent of series components rising. (Half of the unchanged components are counted as rising.) Data are centered within the spans: 1-month indexes are placed on
the 2d month, 6-month indexes on the 4th month, and 9-month indexes on the 6th month of the span; 1-quarter indexes are placed on the 1st month of the 2d quarter, 3-quarter indexes on
the 1st month of the 3d quarter, and 4-quarter indexes on the 2d month of the 3d quarter. Seasonally adjusted components are used except in index 968, which requires no adjustment, and
index 969, which is adjusted as an index (1-quarter span only). Unadjusted series are indicated by®. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; and "NA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on page 38.
l
This is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not^be reproduced without written permission from The Conference
Board.
Based on 65 components through November 1976 and on 62 components thereafter. Component data are not shown in table C2
but are available from the source agency.
3
See " New Features and Changes for This Issue," page ill.
4
Based on 12 components (excluding print cloth).
3
Average for April 4, 11, and 18.

74



APRIL

1978

ItCII

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
DIFFUSION INDEXES AND RATES OF CHANGE—Con.

DIFFUSION INDEXES-Con.

Year
and
quarter

970. Business expenditures for new plant and
equipment (18 industries)
a. Actual
expenditures

(1-Qspan)

b. Later
anticipations

c. Early
anticipations

(1-Qspan)

(1-Qspan)

971. New orders, manufacturing1®

972. Net profits, manufacturing
and trade1©

Actual

Actual

Anticipated

(4-Q span)

Actual

Anticipated

(4-Q span)

{4-Q span)

(4-Q span)

973. Net sales, manufacturing
and trade 1 ®
Anticipated

(4-Q span)

(4-Q span)

1975

First quarter ..
Second quarter
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter

38.9
44.4
38.9
36.1

36.1
41.7
50.0
61.1

66.7
52.8
66.7
61.1

50
54
64
71

72
59
70
73

52
53
58
66

68
58
66
67

57
58
66
70

75
62
73
74

66.7
80.6
72.2
47.2

61.1
77.8
72.2
63.9

75.0
61.1
66.7
83.3

80
80
78
78

82
84
88
86

76
74
72
74

76
80
84
82

82
81
80
80

82
84
90
87

66.7
75.0
88.9
44.4

61.1
72.2
69.4
58.3

66.7
66.7
66.7
72.2

80
83
82
82

80
86
88
84

71
74
74
76

78
80
84
82

80
81
84
85

82
86
90
86

(NA)

77.8

61.1
66.7

(NA)

82
83

(NA)

79
82

(NA)

86
87

1976

First quarter ..
Second quarter
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter
1977

First quarter ..
Second quarter
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter
1978

First quarter ..
Second quarter
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter

DIFFUSION INDEXES-Con.

Year
and
quarter

974. Number of employees,
manufacturing and trade 1 ®

975. Level of inventories,
manufacturing and trade 1 ®

976. Selling prices, manufacturing 1 ®

Actual

Actual

Actual

Anticipated

Anticipated

977. Selling prices, wholesale
trade 1 ®

Anticipated

Anticipated

Actual

978. Selling prices, retail
trade 1 ©
Anticipated

Actual

(4-Q span)

(4-Q span)

(4-Q span)

44
44
48
52

53
48
54
54

58
52
56
57

64
54
50
54

81
78
78
78

86
76
68
74

80
79
81
81

87
74
70
76

80
84
86
88

88
75
72
79

57
58
58
58

56
60
62
60

62
65
68
69

60
64
70
68

80
82
80
82

75
78
80
80

84
80
80
88

80
82
82
84

86
86
92
86

81
82
84
86

60
59
61
62

59
60
61
59

74
72
74
75

65
68
72
70

86
86
87
87

78
81
86
82'

87
86
88
90

80
86
86
84

90
86
92
92

86
84
89
88

(NA)

59
60

(NA)

67
70

(NA)

82
84

(NA)

84
90

(NA)

90
88

(4-Q span)

(4-Q span)

(4-Q span)

(4-Q span)

(4-Q span)

(4-Q span)

(4-Q span)

1975

First quarter ..
Second quarter
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter
1976

First quarter ..
Second quarter
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter
1977

First quarter ..
Second quarter
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter
1978

First quarter ..
Second quarter
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter

NOTE: Figures are the percent of series components rising. (Half of the unchanged components are counted as rising.) Data are placed on the terminal month of the span. Series are seasonally adjusted except those, indicated by © , that appear to contain no seasonal movement. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; and "NA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on page 39.
x
This is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from Dun and Bradstreet,
Inc. Dun and Bradstreet diffusion indexes are based on surveys of about 1,400 business executives.

ItCII APRIL 1978



75

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
DIFFUSION INDEXES AND RATES OF CHANGE—Con.

^9 SELECTED DIFFUSION INDEX COMPONENTS: Basic Data and Directions of Change
Diffusion index components

1977
August

October

September

1978
November

January

December

Februaryr

Marchp

961. AVERAGE WORKWEEK OF PRODUCTION WORKERS, MANUFACTURING '
(Average weekly hours)
All manufacturing industries

,

+

40.3 o

40.3

(55)

(57)

40.2 +
39.6 +
39.0 +

40.6
40.0
39.2

+
+
+

40.8
40.1
39.5

+

41.4
41.0

41.0
40.9

+
+

41.1
41.3

o

40.9 o
41,8 o

40.9
41.8

+
+

41.1
42.0

... +
+

40.3 o
42.3 +

40.3
42.6

o
+

o
+

40.3 o
38.8 +

40.3
39.0

39.7
37.8 +

Percent rising of 21 components

+

40.4

+

40.5

o

(52)

(81)

40.5

39.6

(48)

+

40.0

+

(75)

(0)

40.5
(88)

Durable goods industries:
Ordnance and accessories
Lumber and wood products . . . .
Furniture and fixtures

+

Stone clay and glass products
Primary metal industries
...
Fabricated metal products
Machinery, except electrical
Electrical equipment and supplies .
Transportation equipment
Instruments and related products
Miscellaneous manufacturiny industries

o

,

40.2
40.3
39.4

+
+

41.1
40.2
39.5

+
0

41.8
41.3 +

41.6
41.4

-

r40.3
r41.0

+
+

40.9
41.6

+

41.2
41.4

o

41.1
41.9

+
o

41.5
41.9

-

r40.3
r40.9

+
+

40.7
41.7

+
+

41.2
42.2

40.3
42.7

40.2
42.5

+

40.3
42.2

39.5
41.1

+

39.7
40.6

+
+

40.3
41.9

+
+

40.6
39.1

40.4
39.0

o

40.4
38,9

-

r39.8
r38.0

+
+

40.3
38.2

+
+

41.3
38.7

39.5
38.6

o

39.5
38.2

+
+

39.8
38.8

39.7
38.3

-

r39.1
37.5

+
+

39.7
38.7

+
+

40.2
39,6

40.2 +
35.5

40.3
35,3

+
+

40.5
35.6

+
+

40.7
35.7

+

40.6
35.8

40.0
33.9

+
+

40.3
35.2

+
+

40.4
35.9

42.4 +
37.7 +

42.7
38.0

+

42.8
37.9

o

42.7
37.9

+
o

42.9
37.9

-

42.2
r37.4

+
+

42.5
37.5

+
+

43.3
38.0

o
+

41.7
43.9

-

r41.6
r43.6

+
o

41.7
43.6

+
+

42.1
44.1

39.8
36.6

o

39.6
36.6

+
+

40.3
37.4

+

66,803

+

68,232

40.2
39.4
37.7

+

39.9
39.9
39.8

+
o

39.7
39.9
39.8

Nondurable goods industries:
Food and kindred products . . . .
Tobacco manufactures
Textile mill products
...
Appargl and other textile products

+
+

Paper and allied products
Printing and publishing
Chemicals and allied products
Petroleum and coal products

+
+

41.8
43.0

41.7
42.8

+

41.6
43.2

+
+

41.7
43.3

Rubber and plastic products, n.e.c
Leather and leather products

+
+

40.8
37.3 +

40.7
37,6

+
+

40.9
37.7

o
+

40.9
37.8

40.7
37.2

geiVAlUEQFMANUFACTURERS'NEWORDERS^URABlEGOQDSINDUSTHIES 1
(Millions of dollars)
AH durable goods industries

+

PorcBnt rising of 35 components

59,269 +

(69)

60,364

+ 63,556

(66)

-

(63)

62,821

+

(66)

66,165

2 9

-

(66)

63,536

(40)

(49)

(71)

Primary metals
Fabricated metal products

+
+

8,918 +
7,033 +

8,988
7,124

+

8,696
7,509

+
+

9,268
7,635

+
-

9,347
7,447

+
+

9,857
7,597

+
+

9,946
8 S 019

+
-

10,080
7,629

Machinery, except electrical
Electrical machinery . .

+
+

10,469 +
7,439

10,576
7,381

+
+

10,762
7,564

+
+

10,797
8,059

+
-

11,210
8,000

+

10,563
8,434

+
+

11,482
8,460

+
-

11,506
8,244

Transportation equipment
Other durable goods industries

+
+

13,721 +
11,689 +

14,518
11,777

+
+

17,117
11,908

-

15,247
11,815

+
+

17,569
12,592

-

14,950
12,135

+
+

16,514
12,382

+
+

18,340
12,433

NOTE: To facilitate interpretation, the month-to-month directions of change are shown along with the numbers; (+) = rising, (o) s unchanged, and (•-) ~ falling. The "r" indicates revised;
"p", preliminary; and "NA", not available.
l
Data are seasonally adjusted by the source agency.
Data for most of the 35 diffusion index components are not available for publication; however, they are all included in the
totals and directions of change for six major industry groups shown here.
&
Revlsed. See "New Features and Changes for This Issue," page iii.

76



APRIL

1978

ItUI

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
DIFFUSION INDEXES AND RATES OF CHANGE-Con.

H8| SELECTED DIFFUSION INDEX COMPONENTS: Basic Data and Directions of Change-Con.

1978

1977

Diffusion index components
September

August

October

November

December

Januaryr

Marchp

February**

966. INDEX OF INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTIONl
(1967=100)
All industrial production .

138.1 +

Percent rising of 24 components*
Durable manufactures:
Primary and fabricated metals
Primary metals
. .
Fabricated metal products
Machinery and allied goods
Nonelectrical machinery
Electrical machinery
..
Transportation equipment. . .
Instruments

..

...
+

.

. . .
+

Lumber, clay, and glass
Clay, glass, and stone products
Lumber and products
Furniture and miscellaneous
Furniture and fixtures
Miscellaneous manufactures.

+

.

....

Nondurable manufactures:
Textiles, apparel, and leather
Textile mill products
Apparel products
Leather and products

+
+

Paper and printing
Paper and products
Printing and publishing

138.5

+

138.9

(44)

(62)

112.5
134.0

109.0
133.6

+
+

113.5
133,8

+
+
+
+

147.4
144.6
125.5
160.3

+
+

148.9
144.2
124.3
162.2

+
+

148.8
131,8 +

145.5
137.1

+
-

142.9 +
147.5 +

145.6
150.7

136.6 +
124.1 +

140.7
127.7

145.2
143.9
124.3
158.3

(67)

138.6 +

(71)

139.0

107.4
136.9

105.8
136.5

+

105.5
137.4

+
+
+
+

152.5
149.2
127.4
166.7

+

151.7
147.3
122.2
164.7

150.2
144.0
116.4
163.4

+
+
+
+

151.0
147.3
118.9
164.2

148.0
135.7

+
+

152.8 137.5 +

H52.1
138.1

150.5 +
137.3

151.3
137.1

+
+

146.6
151.0

+

146.0 +
151.8 +

146.6
152.5

146.4 +
153.1 +

149.4
153.2

142.4
129.0

141.6 +
125.1 +

77.0

+

r!43.7
r!25.8
r77.3

137.1
118.6
74.5 o

136.9
(NA)
74.5

+

74.5

74.0

+
+
+

+
+

140.3
125.0

139.1
124.2

+

137.9
125.7

o

181.3
141.9
239.5

+
-

182.3
141.4
236.3

+

Foods and tobacco
Foods
Tobacco products

+
+

139.3
117.0

138.3
113.5

+

137.3
113.8

113.6 +
119.3 +

133.0
119.6

+
-

141.4
119.4

70.0 +
125.0 +

71.4

126,7

+
+

128.1

80.0

78.1

+

+

141.0

(60)

+
+
+
+

+

+

(38)

149.7
146.0
122.0
163.1

+

....

(58)

H39.7

111.0
136.4

182.6
139,9 +
237.4 +

..

139.3 +

111.2
135.8 +

Chemicals, petroleum, and rubber
Chemicals and products
Petroleum products .
...
Rubber and plastics products

Mining:
Coal
Oil and gas extraction
Metal, stone, and earth minerals
Metal mining
Stone and earth minerals

+

(96)

(NA)
(NA)

+

(NA)
154.8

(NA)
(NA)
(NA)

137.8 +
126.2 +

H38.6
127.5

+
+

139.9 +
129.1

141.7
128.8

+
+

143.2
130.2

H83.0 +
139.3 +
r 240.1

184.6
139.7
238.7 +

184.0
138.9
240.5

+

+

183.1 140.5
238.5 +

(NA)
140.0
(NA)

+
+

139.4 +
117.5 +

rl40.4
H20.6

139.2 +
113.4

140.3
(NA)

140.6
117.8 +

74.6
H18.4

+

54.8 +
119.3 +

56.5
119.7

+

104.3
126.5

+
+

121.4
130.0

+

84.8

127.2

120.2
129.3

(NA)
(NA)

+
+

78,6
122.4
(NA)
(NA)

NOTE: To facilitate interpretation, the month-to-month directions of change are shown along with the numbers: (+) = rising, (o) = unchanged, and (-} - falling. The "r " indicates revised;
"p", preliminary; and "NA", not available.
x
Data are seasonally adjusted by the source agency.
2
Where actual data for separate industries are not available, estimates are used to compute the percent rising.

ItUI

APRIL 1978




77

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
DIFFUSION INDEXES AND RATES OF CHANGE-Con.

KHJ SELECTED DIFFUSION INDEX COMPONENTS: Basic Data and Directions of Change-Con.

1978

1977

Diffusion index components

August

October

September

November

January

December

February

April 1

March

967. INDEX OF INDUSTRIAL MATERIALS PRICES 2

Industrial materials price index (1967S1QQ) . . . . Psrcgnt rising of 13 compon&nts

202.7

+

(50)

202.9

+

(50)

204.7 -

(50)

203.8 +
3

210.9 +
(58)

(38)

219.7 +
(69)

219.9 o
(35)

+

219.8
(46)

221.2
(58)

Dollars
Copper scrap

(pound). . (kilogram). .

0.382
0.842

+

0.385
0.849

+

0.392 0.864

0.388 +
0.855

0.431 +
0.950

0.475 1.047

0.460 +
1.014

0.472
1.041

+

0.495
1.091

Lead scrap

(pound). . (kilogram). .

0.113
0.249

0

0.113
0.249

o

0.113 +
0.249

0.120 +
0.265

0.123 0.271

0.122 0.269

0.120 o
0,265

0.120
0.265

-

0.119
0.262

(US. ton). . o
(metric ton). .

58.000
63.933

- 57.000
62.831

-

50.000 55.115

46.000 +
50.706

59.000 +
65.036

72.000 o
79.366

72.000 o
79.366

72.000
79.366

+ 77.000
84.877

Tin

(pound)
•*•
(kilogram). .

5.164
11.385

+

5.170
11.398

+

5.674 +
12.509

5.948 13.113

5.766 12.712

5.526 12.183

5.512 12.152

5.262
11,601

-

4.999
11.021

Zinc

(pound). . o
(kilogram). .

0.340
0.750

o

0.340
0.750

-

0.318 0.701

0.308 0.679

0.305 o
0.672

0.305 0.672

0.302 0.666

0.292
0.644

-

0.290
0.639

(yard). . +
(meter). .

0.191
0.209

+

0.198
0.217

+

0.240 0.262

0.212 +
0.232

0.229 +
0.250

0.234 o
0.256

0.234 0.256

0.226
0.247

+

0.227
0.248

(pound). . (kilogram). .

0.525
1.157

-

0.492
1.085

o

0.492 1.085

0.480 +
1.058

0.484 +
1.067

0.513 +
1.131

0.530 +
1.168

0.555
1.224

-

0.544
1.199

(yard). . o
(meter). .

0.582
0.636

o

0.582
0.636

o

0.582
0.636

+

0.533 0.583

0.531 o
0.581

0.531 +
0.581

0.552
0.604

Wool tops

(pound). . o
(kilogram). .

2.580
5.688

o

2.580
5.688

o

2.580 •*•
5.688

2.592 +
5.714

2.600 5.732

2.592 5.714

2.580 0
5.688

2.580
5.688

o

2.580
5.688

Hides

(pound). . +
(kilogram). .

0.371
0.818

-

0.364
0.802

-

0.358 +
0.789

0.392 +
0.864

0.425 +
0.937

0,500 1.102

0.488 1.076

0.468 +
1.032

0,473
1.043

Rosin

(100 pounds). . o
(100 kilograms)..

28.500
62.831

o 28.500
62.831

o

28.500 o
62.831

28.500 o
62.831

28.500 o
62.831

28.500 o
62.831

28.500 62.831

28.250
62,280

(pound). . *(kilogram). .

0.409
0.902

+

0,446
0.983

-

0.444 0.979

0.440 0.970

0,425 +
0.937

0.437 +
0.963

0,449 +
0.990

0,454
1.001

-

(pound). . -

0.153
0.337

-

0.149
0.328

+

0.156 0.344

0.155 0.342

0.150 +
0.331

0.154 +
0.340

0.160 *
0.353

0.173
0.381

+ 0.177
0.390

Steel scrap

.

Burlap
Cotton, 12=market average
Print cloth, average

Rubber
Tallow

.

.

(kilogram). .

(NA) (NA)

0.532
0.582

+ 28.500
62.831

0.441
0.972

NOTE: To facilitate interpretation, the month-to-month directions of change are shown along with the numbers: (+) = rising, (o) ~ unchanged, and (™) ~ falling. The "r" indicates revised;
"p", preliminary; and "NA", not available.
1
Average for April 4, 11, and 18.
2
Series components are not seasonally adjusted. Components are converted to metric units by the Bureau of Economic Analysis.
3
Based on 12 components.

78



APRIL

1978

OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT

GNP AND PERSONAL INCOME

Year
and
quarter

50. Gross national product in 1972 dollars

200, Gross national product in current dollars
a. Total

(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)

a. Total

c. Percent
change at
annual rate

b. Difference

(Ann, rate,
bil.dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)

c. Percent
change at
annual rate

b. Difference

(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.}

217. Per capita
GNP in 1972
dollars

213. Final sales
in 1972 dollars

(Ann. rate,
dollars)

(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.}

1975

First quarter ..
Second quarter
Third quarter...
Fourth quarter

1,453.0
1,496.6
1,564.9
1,600.7

0.6
43.6
68.3
35.8

0.2
12.5
19.5

1,651.2
1,691.9
1,727.3
1,755.4

50.5
40.7
35.4
28.1

13.2
10.2

1,810.8
1,869.9
1,915.9
1,961.8

55.4
59.1
46.0
45.9

13.2
13.7
10.2

pi,992.9

p31.1

1,169.8
1,188.2
1,220.7
1,229.8

-29.9

1,256.0
1,271.5
1,283.7
1,287.4

26.2

9,9

1,311.0
1,330.7
1,347.4
1,360.2

p6.5

pi,358.3

9.5

-9.6
6.4
11.4
3.0

5,495
5,571
5,709
5,740

1,189.7
1,206.2
1,217,8
1,234.4

5.1
3.9
1.2

5,853
5,915
5,960
5,965

1,246.3
1,259.4
1,269.8
1,289.2

23,6
19.7
16.7
12.8

7.5
6.2
5.1
3.8

6,064

6,143
6,207
6,253

1,301.2
1,317,5
1,331.8
1,351.5

p-1.9

p-0.6

p6,234

pi,346.9

18.4

32.5
9.1

1976

First quarter ..
Second quarter
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter

8.6
6.7

15.5
12.2

3.7

1977

First quarter ..
Second quarter
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter
1978

First quarter ..
Second quarter
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter

GNP AND PERSONAL INCOME-Con.

Year
and
quarter

PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES
230. Total in current
dollars

Disposable personal income
224. Current dollars 225. Constant
(1972) dollars
(Ann. rate,

bil.dol.)

231. Total in 1972
dollars

232. Durable goods
in current dollars

233. Durable goods
in 1972 dollars

227. Per capita in
1972 dollars

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

(Ann. rate,
dollars)

(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bit. dol.}

1975

First quarter ..
Second quarter
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter

1,025.4
1,092.2
1,095.7
1,124.1

828.8
871.1
859.1
870.2

3,893
4,084
4,018
4,062

936.5
965.9
995.1
1,024.1

756.9
770.4
780.2
792.8

122.8
127.8
136.7
144.3

106.2
109.0
115.4
120.2

1,153.3
1,174.1
1,193.3
1,222.6

881.5
887.8
890.7
901.5

4,107
4,130
4,135
4,177

1,056.0
1,078.5
1,102.2
1,139.0

807,2
815.5
822.7
839.8

153.3
156.7
159.3
166.3

125.4
126.7
127.1
130.7

1,252.4
1,292.5
1,323.8
1,368.3

908.4
924.5
934.4
955.8

4,202
4,268
4,305
4,394

1,172.4
1,194.0
1,218.9
1,259.5

850.4
854.1
860.4
879.8

177.0
178.6
177.6
186.0

136.9
137,9
136.5
141.6

pi,400.5

p958.9

p4,401

pi,284.0

p879.2

pl84.0

p!37.6

1976

First quarter ..
Second quarter
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter
1977

First quarter ..
Second quarter
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter
1978

First quarter ..
Second quarter
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter

NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ®. Series numbers are for identification only and
do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and
"NA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 41 and 42.

ItCII

APRIL 1978




79

OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
A

I

NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT—Con.

^H GROSS PRIVATE DOMESTIC INVESTMENT

MM PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENOITURES-Con.
236. Nondurable
goods in current
dollars

Year
and
quarter

(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)

238. Nondurable
goods in 1972
dollars

(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)

237. Services in
current dollars

(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)

239. Services in
1972 dollars

(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)

240. Total in
current dollars

(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)

241. Total in
1972 dollars

(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)

242. Fixed investment, total, in
current dollars

243. Fixed investment, total, in
1972 dollars

(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)

1975
First quarter ^ . , - . . . .
Second Quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter

394.0
406.4
415.0
421.9

301.8
308.4
308.6
311.5

419. 7
431.7
443.4
457.9

349.0
353.0
356.2
361.2

175.1
171,2
205.4
204.7

133.0
130.9
153.1
149.2

197,1
196.3
200.5
208,4

152.9
148.9
150.2
153.8

430.4
437.1
444.7
458.8

316.1
319.3
321.5
329.4

472.4
484.6
498.2
513.9

365.6
369.6
374.0
379.7

231.3
244.4
254.3
243.4

168.1
175.2
179.4
169.2

216.8
226.1
232.8
244.3

158.4
163.1
165.6
171.0

466.6
474.4
481.8
499.9

329.7
330.0
332.4
342.7

528.8
541.1
559.5
573.7

383.8
386.3
391.4
395.5

271.8
294.9
303.6
306.7

186.7
197.2
200.8
197.5

258.0
273,2
280.0
293,2

177.0
184.0
185.1
188.7

p505.8

p339.2

p594.3

p402.3

p314,4

p!99.7

p297.9

p!88.4

1976
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter

....

1977
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
1978

First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter

B
Year
and
quarter

GROSS PRIVATE
DOMESTIC INVEST.-Con.

245. Change in
business inventories in current
dollars
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)

J9 GOVERNMENT PURCHASES OF GOODS AND SERVICES

30. Change in
business inventories in 1972,
dollars

260. Total in
current dollars

(Ann. rate,
bil. doi.)

(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)

261. Total in
1972 dollars

(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)

262. Federal
Government in
current dollars

263. Federal
Government in
1972 dollars

(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)

266. State and
local government
in current dollars

267. State and
local government
in 1972 dollars

(Ann. rate,
bii.dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)

1975

First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter

-22.0
-25.1
4.9
-3.6

-20.0
-18.0
2.9
-4.6

326.0
335.2
343.5
351.0

259.4
262.3
264.8
265.4

119.6
121.8
123.8
128.1

96.0
96,5
96,9
97.4

206.4
213.3
219.7
222.9

163.4
165.8
167.8
168,0

14.5
18.3
21.5
-0.9

9.7
12.1
13.8
-1.8

353.6
358.9
363.0
370.0

263.9
264.5
264.6
264.6

127.6
128.5
130.2
134.2

96.4
96.1
96.7
97.1

225,9
230.4
23;?. 7
235,8

167.5
168.4
168.0
167.5

13.8
21.7
23,6
13.5

9.7
13.2
15.7
8.7

374.9
390.6
400.9
413.8

263.3
270.0
274.0
277.0

136.3
143.6
148.1
153.8

97.0
101.1
103.3
104.2

238.5
247.0
252.9
260.0

166.4
168.9
170.7
172.8

p!6.5

pll.3

p417.1

p274.9

p!53.1

p!02.1

p264.1

P172.8

1976
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
1977
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
1978
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter

NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ®. Series numbers are for identification only and
do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and
"NA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 42,43, and 44.




APRIL 1978

ItCII

OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
A

I

NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT—Con.

NATIONAL INCOME
AND ITS COMPONENTS

FOREIGN TRADE

Year
and
quarter

250. Current
dollars

252. Current
dollars

255. Constant
(1972) dollars

{Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)

imports of goods
and services

Exports of goods
and services

Net exports of
goods and services

(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.}

256. Constant
(1972) dollars
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)

220. National income in current
dollars

280. Compensation of
employees

257. Constant
(1972) dollars

253. Current
dollars
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)

1975

First quarter ..
Second quarter
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter

15.4
24.3
20.8
20.8

20.5
24.5
22.7
22.3

147.4
142.7
146.9
152.1

89.7
87.4
89.7
92.8

131.9
118.3
126,1
131.3

69.2
62.9
67.0
70.6

1,156.0
1,191.4
1,244.9
1,275,7

904.6
914.4
936.7
965.6

10.2
10.2

.16.8
16.4
17.0
13.8

153.9
160.6
168.4
168.5

93.1
95.2
97.9
96.9

143.7
150.4
160.6
165.6

76.3
78.9
80.9
83.1

1,321.0
1,353.9
1,379.6
1,402.1

999.6
1,024.9
1,046.5
1,074.2

10.6
9.4
12.2
5.9

170.4
178.1
179.9
170.6

96.9
98.5
99.8
94.8

178.6
187.7
187.4
188.8

86.3
89.1
87.6
88.9

1,450.2
1,505.7
1,540.5

1,109.9
1,144.7
1,167.4
1,203.3

p200.8

p92.6

1976

First quarter ..
Second quarter
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter

7.9
3.0

1977

First quarter ..
Second quarter
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter

-8.2

-9.7
-7.5
-18,2

rl,585.7

1978

First quarter ..
Second quarter
Third quarter,.
Fourth quarter

p-22.6

p97.1

p!78.3

p4.5

NATIONAL INCOME AND ITS COMPONENTS-Con.

Year
and
quarter

282. Proprietors'
income with inventory valuation
and capital consumption adjustments
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)

284. Rental income
of persons with
capital consumption adjustment

(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.).

286. Corporate
prof its with
inventory valuation
and capital consumption adjustments
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)

(NA)

pi,242.5

SAVING

288. Net interest

(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)

290. Gross saving
(private and government)

292. Personal
saving

295. Business
saving

(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)

1975

First quarter ..
Second quarter
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter

78.9
84.3
90.4
90.4

22.1
22.3
22.2
22.6

86.9
90.4
86.2
88.7
95.1

65.4

115.6
114.7

76.4
77.6
79.9
82.3

175.6
183.6
209.8
211.4

155.1
175.2
192.1
194.5

23.0
22.9
23,3
24.1

126.5
129.2
133.5
123.1

85.0
86.5
90.1
92.0

228.9
242.1
244.8
232.2

203.6
205,0
212.5
205.3

72.4
70.3
64.8
56.3

24.5
24.9
25.5
26.4

125.4
140.2
149.0
H44.8

95.3
98.9

251.4

211.5

51.4
68,5
73.3
76.1

74.0
92.7

103.1
76.7
75.5

1976

First quarter ..
Second quarter
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter
1977

First quarter ..
Second quarter
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter

97.0
95.5
105.0

103.1
106.1

277,2
284.5
r281.0

223.6
237.2
r233.8

1978

First quarter ..
Second quarter
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter

P102.4

p26.9

(NA)

p!09.4

(NA)

(NA)

p82.6

NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ©. Series numbers are for identification only and
do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and
"NA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 45,46, and 47.

ItCII

APRIL 1978




81

OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
A

I

NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT—Con.

Q
298. Government
surplus or deficit
total

Year
and
quarter

Q SHARES OF GNP AND NATIONAL INCOME

SAVIN G-Con.

(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)

293. Personal
saving rate
(percent of disposable personal
income)

Percent of Gross National Product
235. Personal consumption expenditures, total
(Percent)

(Percent)

249, Residential
fixed investment

248. Nonresidential
fixed investment

247. Change in
business inventories

(Percent)

(Percent)

(Percent)

(Percent)

251. Net exports of
goods and services

1975
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth Quarter

-44.9
-94.7
-59.0
-58.7

6.4
9.4
7.0
6.7

64.5
64.5
63.6
64.0

10.3
9.9
9.5
9.4

3.3
3.2
3.3
3.6

-1.5
-1.7
0,3
-0.2

1.1
1.6
1.3
1,3

-47.1
-33.3
-32.4
-29.4

6.3
6.0
5.4
4.6

64.0
63.7
63.8
64.9

9.4
9.4
9.5
9.5

3.7
3.9
3,9
4.4

0.9
1.1
1.2
-0,1

0.6
0.6
0.5
0.2

-11.5
-14.9
-26.0
r-28.9

4.1
5.3
5.5
5.6

64.7
63.9
63.6
64.2

9.8
9.8
9.8
9.9

4.5
4.9
4.8
5.1

0.8
1.2
1.2
0.7

-0.4
-0.5
-0.4
-0.9

(NA)

P 5.9

p64.4

p9.9

pO.8

p-1.1

1976
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quartsr

1977
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter

....

1978
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter

p5.0

M SHARES OF GNP AND NATIONAL INCOME-Con.

Year
and
quartsr

Percent of National Income

Percent of GNP-Con.
265. Federal Govt.
purchases of goods
and services
(Percent)

268. State and
local govt. purchases of goods
and services
(Percent)

84. Compensation of
employees
(Percent)

283. Proprietors'
income with IVA
and CCA 1

285. Rental income
of persons with
CCA 1

(Percent)

287. Corporate
profits with IVA
and CCA 1
(Percent)

(Percent)

289. Net interest

(Percent)

1975
First quarter
Second Quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter

8.2
8.1
7.9
8.0

14.2
14.3
14.0
13.9

78.3
76.8
75.2
75.7

6.8
7.1
7.3
7.1

1.9
1.9
1.8
1.8

6.4
7.8
9.3
9.0

6.6
6,5
6.4
6.5

7.7
7.6
7.5
7.6

13.7
13.6
13.5
13.4

75.7
75.7
75.9
76,6

6,6
6.7
6.2
6.3

1.7
1.7
1.7
1.7

9,6
9.5
9.7
8.8

6.4
6.4
6.5
6.6

7.5
7.7
7.7
7.8

13.2
13.2
13.2
13.3

76.5
76.0
75.8
75.9

6.6
6.4
6.2
6.6

1.7
1.7
1.7
1.7

8,6
9.3
9.7
9.1

6.6
6.6
6,7
6.7

p!3.3

(NA)

(NA)

(NA)

(NA)

(NA)

1976
First pusrtsr

Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter

1977
First quarter . . . .
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter

1978
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter

p7.7

NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ®. Series numbers are for identification only and
do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and
"NA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 47 and 48.

*IVA means inventory valuation adjustment; CCA means capital consumption adjustment.

82



APRIL 1978

ItCII

OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
B |

PRICES, WAGES, AND PRODUCTIVITY

^H PRICE MOVEMENTS
Implicit price deflator,
gross national product
Year
and
month

310. Index

(1972=100)

310c. Change
over 1-quarter
spans1

(Ann. rate,
percent)

Fixed weighted price index,
gross business product
311. Index

(1972=100)

31 Ic. Change
over 1-quarter
spans1

(Ann. rate,
percent)

Consumer prices, all items
320. Index ® 320c. Change
over 1-month
spans1

(1967-100)

(Percent)

Consumer prices, food

320c. Change
over 6-month
spans1

(Ann. rate,
percent)

322. Index

(1967=100)

322c. Change
over 1-month
spans1

(Percent)

322c. Change
over 6-month
spans1

(Ann. rate,
percent)

1976

4.1

January
February
March

131.5

April
May
June

133J

July
August
September

134^6

October
November
December

136*.4

4.3

166.7
167.1
167.5

0.5
0.2
0.2

5.1
5.1
4.9

180.8
179.6
178.6

5.3

168.2
169.2
170.1

0.5
0.6
0.4

4.7
5.3
5.7

179.7
181.0
181.2

4.5

171.1
171.9
172.6

0.4
0.5
0.4

5.5
4.8
4.8

181.1
181.6
181.7

173.3
173.8
174.3

0.4
0.2
0.4

5.6
6.6
7.1

182.1
181.5
182.0

6.8

175.3
177.1
178.2

0.8
1.0
0.6

8.0
8.7
8.9

183.5
187.4
188.6

0.8
2.1
0.6

10.6
12.6
13.4

7.5

179.6
180.6
181.8

0.8
0.6
0.5

7.9
6.6
6.1

191.5
192.6
193.8

1.5
0.6
0.6

11.2

182.6
183.3
184.0

0.3
0.4
0.4

5.1
4.8
4.7

193.5
194.3
194.7

5.4

184.5
185.4
186.1

0.3
0.4
0.4

5.7
6.2
7.1

p6,6

187.1
188.4
189.7

0.8
0.6
0.8

132.1

4.9

133!8

4.6
135^3

5.5

5.4
137.'l

-0.2
-0.7
-0.6

0.6
0.7
0.1
-0.1

0.3
0.1
0.2
-0.3

0.3

0.3
0.9
0.1
0.3
2.2
3.5
2.7
0.6
0.9
2.7
6.5
7.7

1977

January
February
March

13s!l

April
May
June

14CK5

July
August
September

142^2

October
November
December

144 .*2

5.3
139^4

7.1
14K9

5.0

4.8

143!e
5.9

14515

-0.2

7.5
6.6
3.7,

0.4
0.2

3.6
3.0

195.0
196.0
196.7

0.2
0.5
0.4

5.8
7.4
9.8

199.0
201.4
204.0

1.4
1.2
1.3

1978

January
February
March

P 7.1

pl46\7

p!4?!8

April
May
June
July
August
September
October .
November
December

. .

NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain noseasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by (g). Series numbers are for identification only and
do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and
"NA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 49 and 50.
''Percent changes are centered within the spans: 1-quarter changes are placed on the 1st month of the 2d quarter, l^month
changes are placed on the 2d month, and 6-month changes are placed on the 4th month.

APRIL 1978



83

OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
B I

PRICES, WAGES, AND PRODUCTIVITY—Con.

Q PRICE MOVEMENTS-Con.
Wholesale prices, all commodities
Year
and
month

330. Index©

(1967-100)

330c. Change
over 1 -month
spans1

(Percent)

Wholesale prices, crude materials

Wholesale prices, industrial commodities

330c. Change
over 6-month
spans1

(Ann. rate,
percent)

335. Index®

335c. Change
over 1 -month
spans1

(1967=100)

(Percent)

335c. Change
over 6-month
spans1

(Ann. rate,
percent)

331. Index

(1967-100)

33 1c. Change
over 1-month
spans1

33k. Change
over 6= month
spans1

(Percent)

(Ann. rate,
percent)

1976
January
February
March

......

179.4
179.4
179.7

0.2
-0.1
0.3

2.4
3.0
4.3

177.4
178.1
179.0

0.6
0.3
0.3

6.0
5.4
5.4

203.1
202.3
199.6

0.0
-0.4
-1.3

-1,4
-0.7
5.0

181.3
181.9
183.2

0.8
0.2
0.7

4.7
4.7
5.3

180.1
180.5
181.5

0.6
0.2
0.6

5.6
6.2
6.7

205,2
204 u l
208.2

2.8
-0.5
2.0

5,5
1.9
4.2

184.4
183.8
184.8

0.4
-0.1
0.5

4.3
4.9
4.9

182.7
183.8
184.8

0.7
0.6
0.6

7,0
7.8
7.2

208.6
204.2
203.7

0.2
-2.1
-0.2

-1.6
4.5
1.3

185.3
185.6
187.1

0.3
0.5
0.6

5.0
7.4
8.5

186.3
187.1
187.4

0.7
0.6
0.3

6.9
7.4
7,6

203.6
208.6
209.5

0.0
2.5
0.4

1.5
15.0
17.7

188.1
190.2
192.0

0.5
1.1
1.1

10.1
9.9
7.5

188.4
190.0
191.7

0.6
0.8
0.7

7,7
7.5
7.6

210.2
219,0
221.0

0.3
4.2
0.9

22.7
13.6
3.8

April
May .
June

194.3
195.2
194.5

1.0
0.4
-0.5

6.6
4.5
r3.0

193.3
194.2
. 194.7

0.7
0.5
0.3

7.7
6,9
6.7

225.5
222,3
213,4

2.0
-1,4
-4.0

-0.4
-11.3
-13.4

July
August .
September

194.8
194.6
195.3

0.1
0.1
rO.4

rl.9
2.6
4.4

195.9
196.9
197.8

0.6
0.5
rO.5

r6.0
5.5
5,8

209.8
206.3
20S.7

-1,7
-1.7
-0.3

r-15.4
-7.0
3,6

October
November
December

r!96.2
197,0
198.2

HX5
0.7
0.4

6.1
8.0
9.3

rl99.0
199.2
200.0

0.5
0.3
0.5

6.1
6.5
6.5

207.4
214,4
217.2

rO.S
3.2
1.3

11.6
22.9
27,6

199.9
202.0
203.8

0.9
1.0
1.0

201.5
202.8
204.1

0.7
0.7
0.5

221.6
228.7
232.4

2.0
3.2
1.6

April . .
May
June
July
Auqust .
September

....

October
November
December

1977
January
February
March

. .

1978
January
February
March
April .
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December

. . . .

NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain noseasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ©. Series numbers are for identification only and
do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and
"NA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on page 49.
Percent changes are centered within the spans: 1-month changes are placed on the 2d month and 6-month changes are .placed on
the 4th month.




APRIL 1978

ltd*

OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
B I

PRICES, WAGES, AND PRODUCTIVITY—Con.

^H PRICE MOVEMENTS-Con.

332. Index

(1967-100)

332c. Change
over 1-month
spans1

(Percent)

Wholesale prices, consumer finished goods

Wholesale prices, producer finished goods

Wholesale prices, intermediate materials
Year
and
month

332c. Change
over 6-month
spans1

(Ann. rate,
percent)

333. Index

(1967=100)

333c. Change
over 1-month
spans1

(Percent)

333c. Change
over 6-month
spans1

(Ann. rate,
percent)

334. Index

(1967=100)

334c. Change
over 1-month
spans1

(Percent)

334c. Change
over 6-month
spans1

(Ann. rate,
percent)

1976

January
February
March

184.3
185.2
186.0

0.6
0.5
0.4

4.8
5.0
5.8

H68.8
169.7
170.5

0.7
0.5
0.5

6.5
6.0
5.8

168.0
167.5
167.4

April
May
June

186.6
187.3
188.4

0.3
0.4
0.6

6.3
5,4
6.2

171.2
171.7
172.5

0.4
0.3
0.5

5.4
4.8
5.2

168.5
168.6
168.9

July
August
September

190.0
190.1
191.7

0.8
0.1
0.8

6.3
6.6
6.5

173.3
173.7
174.9

0.5
0.2
0.7

6.3
6.3
7.1

168.9
168.4
169.3

October
November
December

192.4
193.4
194.4

0.4
0.5
0.5

6.1
7.7
8.1

176.5
177.0
178.5

0.9
0.3
0.8

6.6
7.3
6.7

January
February
March

195.7
197.3
199.3

0.7
0.8
1.0

9.2
9.1
7.5

178.9
179.9
180.7

0.2
0.6
0.4

April
May
June

201.1
202.0
201.6

0.9
0.4

6.8
5.4
4.3

181.7
182.8
183.7

July
August
September

202.2
202.6
203.5

r3.1

3.2
4.3
5.6
7.1
7.8

-0.2
-0.3
-0.1

0.7
0.2
0.7

0.7
0.1
0.2

1.1
1.1
2.3

0.0
0.5

1.0
1,9
3.5

169.3
170.2
171.8

0.0
0.5
0.9

4.9
8.2
9.1

6.0
6.7
5.9

173.0
175.2
176.8

0.7
1.3
0.9

10,7
11.4
9.2

0.6
0.6
0.5

6.4
6.2
6.4

178.1
179.6
179.5

0.7
0.8

7.7
5.2
r4.0

184.5
185.4
186.4

0.4
0.5
0.5

8.1
7.9
8.2

179.5
179.7
H80.3

0.0
0.1
0.3

3.1
2.6
3.6

188.9
189.9
191.1

1.3
0.5
0.6

8.3
8.7
8.9

180.8
181.9
182.7

0.3
0.6
0.4

5.1
7.5
7.9

192.0
193.3
194.5

0.5
0.7
0.6

184.0
186.3
187.3

0.7
1.3
0.5

-0.3

1977

October
November
December

..

-0.2

0.3
0.2
0.4

r204.2
205.2
205.9

rO.3
rO.5

207.8
209.7
211.3

0.9
0.9
0.8

0.3

-0.1

1978

January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December

NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ®. Series numbers are for identification only and
do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The V indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and
"MA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on page 49.
1
Percent changes are centered within the spans; 1-month changes are placed on the 2d month and 6-month changes are placed on
the 4th month.

APRIL 1978



85

OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
B I

PRICES, WAGES, AND PRODUCTIVITY—Con.

B(j| WAGES AND PRODUCTIVITY
Average hourly compensation, all employees,
nonfarrn business sector

Average hourly earnings, production workers, private nonfarrn economy, adjusted1
Year
and
month

Current dollar earnings
340. Index

(1967- 100)

340e. Change
over 1 -month
spans2
(Percent)

Current dollar compensation

Real earnings

340c. Change
over 6-rnonth
spans2
(Ann. rate,
percent)

341, Index

(1967=100)

34 1c. Change
over 1 -month
spans2
(Percent)

341c. Change
over 6-month
spans2
(Ann. rate,
percent)

345. Index

(1967=100)

346c. Change
over 1-quarter
spans2
(Ann. rats,
percent)

345c. Change
over 4-quarter
spans2
(Ann. rate,
percent)

1976
January . .......
February
March

179.6
180.5
181.4

0.7
0.5
0,5

7.0
6.6
6.8

107.5
107.9
108.2

0.2
0.4
0.3

1.8
1,4
1.8

186 .*7

April

182.4
183.6
184.2

0.6
0.7
0.3

6.8
6.9
6.8

108.2
108.3
108.2

0.0
0.1
-0.1

1.9
1.5
1.0

19CK7

185.5
186.6
187.5

0.7
0.6
0.5

6.7
6.7
7.1

108.6
108.7
108.7

0.4
0.1
0.0

1.1
1.9
2.2

194.'?

188.4
189.7
190.7

0.5
0.7
0.5

7.7
7.1
7.3

108.9
109.3
109.5

0.2
0.4
0.2

2.0
0.5
0.2

198,"3

January
February
March

192.6
193.2
194.2

1.0
0.3
0.5

7.7
7.2
7.2

109.7
109.0
108.8

0.2
-0.6
-0.2

-0.3
-1.3
-1.6

204^6

April ,.,.-.
May
June
.

195.6
196.4
197.4

0.7
0.4
0.5

7.3
7.1
7.4

108.7
108,6
108.6

-0.1
-0.1
0.0

-0.6
0,4
1.1

207.' 8

July
August
September

199.4
199,9
201.2

1.0
0.3
0.7

8.0
8.0
8.1

109.3
109.2
109.5

0.6
-0.1
0.3

2.8
3.1
3.2

r21l'.3

October
November
December

203.3
204.1
205.2

1.0
0.4
0.5

r8.8
r8.9
p8.8

110.2
110,2
110.3

0.6
0.0
0.1

r3.0
r2.5
pi. 6

r2is!5

r208.1
r208.6
p209,9

rl.4
rO.2
pO.6

rlll.O
rllO.5
pllO,3

rO.6
r-0.5
p-0,2

Mgy

June
July
August
,
September
October
November
December

...

, ...

10.9

9.0

8!a
g!o

8.5

9.*3
7.6
8.' 9

1977

...

12.2
B.'e
7.8
r8.*6

7.0

p9!6
rS.l

1978
January
February
March

p222*.4

p!3.4

April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December

... .

NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ®. Series numbers are for identification only and
do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and
"NA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 50 and 51.
Adjusted for overtime (in manufacturing only) and interindustry employment shifts.
Percent changes are centered within the spans: 1-month changes are placed on the 2d month, 6-month changes are placed on the
4th month, 1-quarter changes are placed on the 1st month of the 2d quarter, and 4-quarter changes are placed on the middle month
of the 3d quarter.




APRIL 1978

BCII

OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
B I

PRICES, WAGES, AND PRODUCTIVITY—Con.

HI WAGES AND PRODUCTIViTY-Con.
Average hourly compensation, all employees,
nonfarm business sector-Con.

Year
and
month

Real compensation
346. Index

(1967-100)

346c. Change
over 1-quarter
spans1
(Ann. rate,
percent)

346c. Change
over 4-quarter
spans1
(Ann. rate,
percent)

Negotiated wage and benefit
decisions, all industries®
348. First year 349. Average
average changes changes over
life of
contract
(Ann. rate,
percent)

(Ann. rate,
percent)

Output per hour, all persons, private
business sector
370. Index

(1967=100)

37Qc. Change
over 1-quarter
spans1

(Ann. rate,
percent)

370c. Change
over 4-quarter
spans1

(Ann. rate,
percent)

358. Index of
output per hour,
all persons,
nonfarm
business sector

(1967=100)

1976

January
February
March

....

ni'.e

6.1

10.5

8.9

4.2

April
May
June

112*.7

July
August
September

m.'s

October
November
December

.. ,

niiz

8.0

3.2
7.2

3*.8
2.3

10.0

7.4

3\2
2.9

r.9

6.8

ns'.i
ne'.i
miz

5.2

7.8

3.Q

112'.9

3*. 5

llV.5

3.'6

nsiz

i!g

niie

2!5

ne.'i

r3.'6

116*.3

p0^7

117.4

3.5

2.8

-0.1

117^2

1977

January
February
March

115.*2

April
May
June

iii',9

July .
August
September

115.*4

October
November
December

neiz

3.8

-0.9

i'.8

9.0

118*.9

8.9

6.0

i.'s

1.7

10.2

naie

-1.0

r5.3

6.2

12(L2

(NA)

2.8

6.1

7.5

9.5

6.3

r2.3

r!20.'8

rll8.'6

1978

January
February
March
April
May
June

(NA)

....

(NA)

pl4.6

p-3.6

p8.5

pl!9*.7

P117J

.. .

July
August
September

. ..

October
November
December

....

....

NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ®. Series numbers are for identification only and
do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and
"NA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 50 and 51.
Percent changes are centered within the spans: 1-quarter changes are placed on the 1st month of the 2d quarter and 4-quarter
changes are placed on the middle month of the 3d quarter.

APRIL 1978



87

OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
C I LABOR FORCE, EMPLOYMENT, AND UNEMPLOYMENT

Q CIVILIAN LABOR FORCE AND MAJOR COMPONENTS
Civilian labor force
Year
and
month

441. Total

(Thous.)

442. Employed

(Thous.)

Labor force participation rates
451. Males
20 years
and over

(Percent)

452. Females 453. Both
20 years
sexes, 16-19
and over
years of age

(Percent)

(Percent)

Number unemployed
37. Total

(Thous.)

444. Males 445. Females 448. Both
447. Full20 years and 20 years and sexes, 16-19 time
over
over
years of aye workers

(Thous.)

(Thous.)

(Thous.)

(Thous.)

448. Numbar employed
part-time
for economic
reasons

(Thous.)

1976
93,652
93,757
93,936

86,293
86,552
86,828

79.8
79.7
79.7

46.6
46.6
46.6

54.2
54.2
54.4

7,359
7,205
7,108

3,127
2,999
2,976

2,526
2,501
2,441

1,706
1,705
1,691

5,924
5,735
5,714

3,292
3,204
3,176

94,391
94,568
94,549

87,217
87,527
87,432

79.9
79.9
79.8

46.8
46.8
47.0

55.2
55.2
53.8

7,174
7,041
7,117

2,924
2,906
3,074

2,475
2,435
2,464

1,775
1,700
1,579

5,703
5,630
S,869

3,224
3,275
3,159

95,176
95,208
95,089

87,801
87,806
87,777

79.9
79.7
79.8

47.2
47,2
47.2

55,6
55.4
53.8

7,375
7,402
7,312

3,076
2,971
3,031

2,637
2,648
2,613

1,662
1,783
1,668

5,871
5,983
6,018

3,191
3,213
3,369

95,197
95,741
95,936

87,844
88,255
88,446

79.7
80.0
79.9

47.0
' 47.4
47.5

54.6
54.5
54.6

7,353
7,486
7,490

3,020
3,182
3,174

2,623
2,589
2,586

1,710
1,715
1,730

6,044
6,000
6,048

3,421
3,478
3,392

January . . . .
February
March
,

95,719
96,320
96,623

88,653
89,047
89,478

79.7
79.9
79.8

47.3
47.6
47.8

54.2
55.1
55.6

7,066
7,273
7,145

3,010
3,073
2,898

2,416
2,512
2,536

1,640
1,688
1,711

5,623
5,697
5,550

3,243
3,441
3,271

April
May
June ,

96,746
97,161
97,552

89,877
90,267
90,648

79.6
79.6
79.9

48.0
48.3
48.1

55.7
55.7
57.1

6,869
6,894
6,904

2,728
2,768
2,661

2,474
2,462
2,550

1,667
1,664
1,693

5,427
5,450
5,443

3,192
3,268
3,390

July
August
September

97,307
97,614
97,756

90,588
90,793
91 ,088

79.5
79.5
79.3

48.0
48.0
48.6

56.5
57.5
55.7

6,719
6,821
6,668

2,647
2,658
2,478

2,459
2,523
2,513

1,613
1,640
1,677

5,401
5,535
5,336

3,464
3,253
3,306

October
November
December

98,071
98,877
98,919

91,383
92,214
92,609

79.7
79.9
80.0

48.3
48.8
48.7

56.7
57.4
57.0

6,688
6,663
6,310

2,621
2,512
2,434

2,447
2,528
2,409

1,620
1,623
1,467

5,387
5,215
4,938

3,263
3,285
3,220

99,107
99,093
99,414

92,881
93,003
93,266

80.0
79.8
79,9

48.9
48.9
49.1

56.9
56.5
56.7

6,226
6,090
6,148

2,480
2,383
2,409

2,247
2,085
2,127

1,499
1,622
1,612

4,891
4,791
4,719

2,986
3,193
3,164

January
February
March
April
May
June

. ., ,
. . .

July
August
September
October
November
December

,

1977

1978
January
February
March ,

..

April
May
June
July
August . . .
September
October
November
December
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain noseasonal movement. Unadjusted seriesare indicated by @. Series numbers are for identification only and
do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and
"NA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on page 52.




APRIL

1978

OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
D|

GOVERNMENT ACTIVITIES

M DEFENSE INDICATORS

MM RECEIPTS AND EXPENDITURES

Federal Government1
Year
and
month

500. Surplus
or deficit

(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)

State and local governments1

501. Receipts

502. Expenditures

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)

510. Surplus
or deficit

(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)

511. Receipts

512. Expenditures

{Ann, rate,
bil.dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)

516. Defense
Department
obligations,
total, excluding
military
assistance

525. Military
prime contract awards
to U.S.
business
firms and
institutions

548. Value
of manufacturers' new
orders, defense
products

(Mil. dot.)

(Mil. dol.)

(Bil.dol.)

564. Federal
purchases
of goods
and services
for national
defense

(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)

Revised2
1976

January
February
March

-6CK3

31&\4

37&\7

13^3

253^8

240. '5

8,433
8,463
8,812

3,536
3,101
6,713

1.63
2.13
2.83

aeis

April
May
June .

-46^2

329J

375^3

12^9

258^4

245^5

9,140
8,567
8,676

3,489
3,543
3,854

2.75
2.12
2.36

86^6

July
August
September . •

-53^5

337. *1

39(X6

21 J

269^6

247^9

9,835
7,096
10,351

2,535
3,652
4,985

2.22
1.92
2.14

86^4

October
November
December

-55^9

344.' 5

400 .*4

26."5

277^5

251 !l

9,629
8,894
10,082

4,897
4,114
4,729

2.67
2.95
3.99

88i4

January
February
March

-38*. 8

364! 9

403^7

27.3

281 !6

253^7

9,476
9,705
9,958

3,354
4,369
4,819

2.10
2.06
2,54

89^7

April
May
June

-4CK3

37K2

411^5

25^4

288 !l

262^6

9,619
9,761
10,039

4,303
4,654
4,300

3.28
2.89
2.59

93!4

July
August
September

-5&\9

373^2

432 J

32.*9

301^6

26&\7

9,072
10,465
9,631

4,624
4,623
4,255

2.06
2.51
2.11

95^6

October
November
December

r-60.0

r386*3

446.3

31.1

307 .'l

276."6

10,415
10,202
9,734

p6,008
p4,096
p5,444

4.46
3.42
4.40

9&\5

p45K6

(NA)

(NA)

10,641
10,413

p4,549
p3,981

3.07
2.78

1977

1978

January
February
March

. ..

(NA)

(NA)

p28CU

(NA)

(NA)

p99*.2

p4.44

April
May
June
July
. .
August
September
October
November
December

....

NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain noseasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by @. Series numbers are for identification only and
do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and
"NA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 53 and 54.
1
Based on national income and product accounts.
5
See "New Features and Changes for This Issue," page iii.

APRIL 1978



OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
U.S. INTERNATIONAL TRANSACTIONS

Qj MERCHANDISE TRADE
602. Exports, excluding
military aid shipments,
total

Year
and
month

604. Exports of agricultural products

(Mil.dol.}

(Mil.dol.}

606. Exports of nonelectrical machinery

612. General imports,
total

(Mil.dol'.)

(Mil.dol.)

{Mil.dol.)

(Mil.dol.)

616. Imports of
auto mobiles and parts

614. Imports of
petroleum end
petroleum products

1976
January
February
March

9,097
8,919
9,020

1,917
1,630
1,668

1,780
1,817
1,806

9,001
9,032
9,469

2,471
2,129
2,334

1,085
1,041
1,117

April
May
Juno

9,369
9,564
9,722

1,892
1,950
1,948

1,818
1,836
1,871

9,643
9,182
10,154

2,699
1,874
2,739

1,221
976
1,169

July
August
September

9,956
9,733
9,796

2,039
2,058
2,160

1,952
1,675
1,883

10,717
10,477
10,651

2,824
2,803
3,053

1,025
1,055
1,238

9,698
9,594
10,397

2,231
1,750
1,860

1,821
1,814
1,983

10,555
10,623
11,020

2,753
3,134
3,087

871
1,128
1,221

January
February
March

9,664
9,896
10,164

1,762
2,004
2,112

1,831
1,892
1,859

10,971
12,882
12,082

3,075
3,247
4,171

1,083
1,248
1,299

April
May
June . . *

9,953
10,489
10,090

2,142
2,360
2,077

1,808
1,835
1,868

12,087
10,983
13,396

3,803
2,885
3,933

1,266
1,183
1,360

July
August
September

10,385
9,674
11,036

1,976
1,801
2,064

1,862
1,732
2,133

13,077
11,651
12,605

3,212
3,318
3,789

1,315
1,328
1,428

October
November
December

9,375
9,475
11,007

1,654
1,755
2,111

1,556
1,791
2,056

12,996
11,833
13,122

3,325
3,627
3,157

1,426
1,465
1,479

10,014
9,922
10,912

(NA)

(NA)

12,393
14,439
13,693

(NA)

(NA)

October
November . .
December

...

1977

1978
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October . . .
November
December ,
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain noseasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ®. Series numbers are for identification only and
do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and
"NA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on page 55.

90



APRIL

1978

OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
E

U.S. INTERNATIONAL TRANSACTIONS—Con.

H| GOODS AND SERVICES MOVEMENTS (EXCLUDING TRANSFERS UNDER MILITARY GRANTS)
Merchandise, adjusted1

Goods and services

Income on investments

Year
and

667. Balance

668. Exports

669. Imports

622. Balance

618. Exports

620. Imports

month

(Mil.dol.)

(Mil.dol.)

(Mil.dol.)

(Mil.dol.)

(Mil.dol.)

(Mil. dol.}

651. U.S. investments abroad

(Mil.dol.)

652. Foreign
investments in
the U.S.

(Mil. dol.)

1976

January
FBbruary
March

1,552

38,591

37,039

-1,343

27,666

28,343

5,298

2,861*

1,505

40,237

38,732

-1,575

28,380

29,955

5,167

2,887

875

42,196

41,321

-2,808

29,603

32,411

5,483

2,816

42,243

42,580

-3,594

29,711

33,305

5,421

2,997

-3,118

43,015

46,133

-7,149

29,457

36,606

6,074

2,887

-3,360

44,960

48,320

-7,654

30,655

38,309

6,599

3,160

-2,989

45,447

48,436

-7,559

30,870

38,429

6,391

3,225

p-5,946

p43,136

p49,082

p-8,879

p29,490

p38,369

p5,876

p3,733

April
May

June
July
August
September . . .
October
November
December

-337

1977

January
February
March
April
May

June
July
August
September . ,
October
November
December
1978

January
February
March

(NA)

(NA)

(NA)

(NA)

(NA)

(NA)

(NA)

(NA)

April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain noseasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by @. Series numbers are for identification only and
do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and
"NA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on page 56.
Balance of payments basis: Excludes transfers under military grants and Department of Defense sales contracts (exports) and
Department of Defense purchases (imports).

APRIL 1978



91

OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
F

INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS

HI INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION

Year
and
month

47. United States, 721.0ECD 1
European counindex of industrial production tries, index of
industrial
production

(1967-100)

(1967=100)

728 Japan,
index of industrial production

(1967-100)

725. West
Germany, index
of industrial
production

(1987=100)

726. France,
index of industrial production

722. United
Kingdom, index
of industrial
production

(1967-100)

(1907-100)

727. Italy, index
of industrial
production

(1967-100)

723. Canoda,
index of industrial production

(1967-100)

1976
January
February
March

125.9
127.6
128.3

141
142
143

176.8
180.6
186.3

143
147
146

149
148
150

113
116
115

130.9
138.9
139.2

141.7
143.0
144.0

April
May
Juno

128.7
129.7
129.8

144
146
146

191.0
187.3
190.7

147
148
148

150
150
151

116
119
113

138.7
145,1
139.8

145.0
147.0
144.6

July
August
September

130.7
131.3
130.6

144
146
148

193.2
192.3
192.9

148
148
151

153
153
159

116
116
117

143.5
139.1
147.8

144.1
145.8
145.0

October
November
December

130.2
131.5
133.0

149
149
149

193.2
197.9
197.7

151
151
152

151
157
154

118
118
118

143.6
150.4
154.7

144.6
146.3
147.1

January
February
March

132.3
133.2
135.3

153
r!52
152

r!93.0
r!90.4
H93.2

154
152
155

159
156
159

119
119
119

153.7
153.6
153.9

149.5
148.7
149.0

April ,
May
Juno .

136,1
137.0
137.8

r!49
149
148

H92.1
H90.4
H93.0

152
151
152

154
151
157

118
119
rl!6

144.1
147.3
137.3

148.6
149.5
150.6

July
August
September ,

138.7
138.1
138.5

H47
148
150

H88.3
H93.6
H92.9

151
152
154

153
153
r!55

118
118
118

138.6
139.3
143.9

148.9
150.1
149.5

138.9
139.3
H39.7

149
148
r149

r190.4
H94.4
H96.2

152
154
156

150
156
151

116
116
117

137.8
140.2
136.4

149.9
150.8
H51.4

r!38.6
r!39.0
pHl.O

p!52
(NA)

p159
(NA)

(NA)

pl!8
(NA)

p!41.2
(NA)

rl49.8
pi 51.1
(NA)

1977

October
November
December

1978
January
February
March

(NA)

April .
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December

..

NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by @. Series numbers are for identification only and
do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and
"NA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on page 57.

Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development.

92



APRIL 1978

OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS—Con.

Q CONSUMER PRICES

Year
and
month

United States

Japan

West Germany

France

United Kingdom

320. Index® 320c. Change
over 6-month
spans1

738. Index© 738c. Change
over 6-month
spans1

735. Index® 735c. Change
over 6-month
spans1

736. Index® 736c. Change
over 6-month
spans1

732. Index® 732c. Change
over 6-month
spans1

(1967=100)

(Ann. rate,
percent)

(1967=100)

(Ann. rate,
percent)

(1967=100)

(Ann. rate,
percent)

(1967=100)

(Ann. rate,
percent)

(1967=100)

(Ann. rate,
percent)

1976

January
February
March

166.7
167.1
.167.5

5.1
5.1
4.9

216.0
217.3
218.1

8.4
8.5
10.1

148.0
149.0
149.6

4.8
5.0
4.9

187.2
188.5
190.1

9.7
9.8
9.1

237.6
240.6
241.9

April
May
June

168.2
169.2
170.1

4.7
5.3
5.7

223.5
224.1
224.5

8.8
8.2
10.5

150.5
151.1
151.5

3.8
4.2
3.6

191.8
193.0
193.9

9.1
9.4
9.7

246.6
249.3
250.6

11.5
14.0

July
August
September

171.1
171.9
172.6

5.5
4.8
4.8

225.7
223.9
229,8

8.8
9.8
11.0

150.9
151.4
151.4

3.0
2.4
2.9

195.7
197.1
199.3

251.1
254.6
258.0

16.0
18.2
20.7

October
November
December

173.3
173.8
174.3

5.6
6.6
7.1

231.3
231.3
233.7

9.8
10.2
8.4

151.5
151.8
152.6

4.2
3.7
4.3

201.1
202.8
203.5

9.0
8.7
8.4

262,7
266.3
269.9

24.2
21.4
19.8

January .
February
March

175.3
177.1
178.2

8.0
8.7
8.9

236.0
237.2
238.7

8.2
8.8
6.1

154.0
154.9
155.5

4.7
5.3
5.2

204.1
205.5
207.3

8.8
9.1
9.7

276.9
279.7
282.4

18.9
16,0
14.7

April
May
June

179.6
180.6
181.8

7.9
6.6
6.1

242.6
244.9
243.6

5.6
7.1
7.2

156.2
156.9
157.6

4.5
4.2
3.2

210.0
212.0
213.6

11.3
11.2
11.0

289.6
291.9
294.9

11.2
11.9
11.6

July
August
September

182.6
183.3
184,0

5.1
4.8
4.7

243.0
243.0
247.3

6.9
3.7
2.8

157.4
157.3
157.1

3.1
2.2
1.8

215.5
216.7
218.6

10.3

295.3
296.7
298.3

10.2

October
November
December

184.5
185.4
186.1

5.7
6.2
7.1

248.6
245.7
245.1

2.2
1.1
(NA)

157.3
157.5
157.9

2.2

220.3
221.1
221.7

10.2
10,6
10.6

13.5
11.8

9.8
9.3

1977

r2.0

2.7

9.0
8.1
7.1
7.2
(NA)

299.6
301.0
302,6

9.4
9.5
8.4
6.5
6.0

1978

January
February
March

187.1
188.4
189.7

246.1
247.1
(NA)

158.9
rl59.7
160.1

222.8
224.4
(NA)

304.4
306.2
308,1

April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain noseasonal movement. Unadjusted seriesare indicated by ©. Series numbers are for identification only and
do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and
"NA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on page 58.

Changes over 6-month spans are centered on the 4th month.

APRIL




1978

93

OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS—Con.

Qj STOCK PRICES

Qj CONSUMER PRICES-Con.
19. United
States, index
of stock
737. Index® 737c. Change 733. Index® 733c. Change prices, 500
over 6-month
over 6-rnonth common
stocks®
spans'
spans1
Canada

Italy

Year
and
month

(1967-100)

(Ann. rate,
percent)

(1967-100)

(Ann. rate,
percent)

(1967-100)

748. Japan,
index of
stock
prices®

745. West
Germany,
index of
stock
prices®

746. France,
index of
stock
prices®

742. United
Kingdom,
index of
stack
prices®

747. Italy,
index of
stock
prices®

743. Canada,
index of
stock
prices®

(1967-100)

(1967-100)

(1967-100)

(1967-100)

(1967-100)

(1967-100)

1976
January
February
March

197.7
202.1
206.1

21,2
23.2
22.0

167.7
168.3
169.0

6.5
5.7
6,0

105.4
109.5
110.0

305.4
305.2
309.4

131.9
135.0
136.5

143.5
150.8
146.6

150.7
152.6
152.5

60.0
62.6
58.3

112.1
121.7
123.6

April
May
June

211.6
215,8
216.8

21.4
19.8
17.9

169.7
171.1
171.9

5.3
4.7
5,1

110.9
110.0
110,7

302.9
309.1
319.3

132.6
126.7
127.2

140.1
138.2
135.4

154.0
155.9
145.8

52.9
53.6
56.7

122.5
123,9
121.6

July
August
September . .

217.9
220.3
224.0

18.9
19.4
22.1

172.6
173.4
174.2

5.7
5.6
5.7

113.3
112.4
114.7

318.1
321.8
321.5

124.8
122.0
122.3

129.7
130.5
126.8

146.4
140.1
131.9

64.3
63.9
59.5

119.4
117.4
115.8

October
November
December

230.5
235.5
238.6

20.1
21.1
21.4

175.4
176.0
176.5

7.0
9.0
9.6

110.8
110.1
113.8

318.4
314.2
330.6'

115.9
115.8
117.1

112.5
108.4
115.2

116,6
121.5
132.7

51.6
50.3
55.6

108,9
104.1
103.2

1977
January
.
February . .
March
.. •

...

238.8
243.4
246.5

17.0
14.8
12.7

178.0
179,7
181.5

9.3
9.5
10.0

112.9
109.8
109.4

343.8
344.7
341.3

119.5
118.3
118.1

116.0
109.7
101.6

149.6
157.0
164.2

52.9
50.0
48.7

107.1
108.1
110.2

April
May
June

...

249,5
252.6
254.3

14.7
13.4
14.4

182.5
184.0
185.3

9.8
7.8
7.3

107.7
107.4
108.0

339.3
343.3
340.7

124.0
128.4
125.2

93.9
97.2
104.0

164.9
180.3
178.6

46.2
44.4
43.4

108.3
105.5
104.6

July
August
Soptsrnber

255.8
258.2
263.9

14.4
15.1
15.4

187.1
187.9
188.9

8.2
8.6
9.1

109.0
106.3
104.7

339.6
345.0
351.2

124.3
126.0
124.9

99.8
105.3
109.7

178.4
191.6
208.7

43.9
45.3
50.3

106.7
104,4
100.0

October
November
December

266.7
270.7
272.0

15.7
14.5
12.3

190.8
192.0
193.3

8.4
9.5
10.0

102.0
102.6
102.1

345.0
332.5
328.6

126.4
128.5
125.4

111.9

46.2
43.6
40.0

97.4
96.3

105.3

210.4
197.7
198.8

98.2
96.8
96.6

339.0
348.3
359.7

126.5
127.9
126.1

pl!5.4
p!19.6
rpll6.8

198.2
187.7
187.5

40.7
43.5
42.8

plOO.6

P374.8

p!25.4

pl!4.6

p!91.1

...

in. 3

100.4

1978
January
February
March

274.6
277.4
279.6

194.0
195.3
197.5

April
May
June

p41.6

98.5
97.0

rplOQ.S
p!05.0

July
August
September
October
November
December
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain noseasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ®. Series numbers are for identification only and
do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and
"NA", not available.
Changes ovor 6-month spans are centered on the 4th month.

94



APRIL 1978

APPENDIXES
A. MCD and Related Measures of Variability
Part I. Monthly Series: Average Percentage Changes
Monthly series

Cl

Period covered

'

C

T/C

MCD

T/C
for
MCD
span

Average duration of run

(ADR)

Cl

I

C

9.97
9.97
9.21
7.98
9.70
9.97

3.84
4.06
3.84
3.92
4.20
3.17

10.88

3.39
3.98
3.72
2.56
3.54
3.51

MCD

1. CYCLICAL INDICATORS
1 Average workweek of production workers mfg
..
5 Average weekly initial claims State unemployment insurance
6 New orders durable goods industries current dollars

.

Jan.48-Dec,77
do
.. do..

0.46
5.57
3.74
3.70
2.95
9.80

0.41
4.86
3.27
3.25
2.50
9.48
5.75

Jan.48-Nov.77
Jan.48-Dec.77
do

6.02
1.05
2.55
26.19
.70
2.61

do
do
do
do
do
do

do
do
do

9. Construction contracts, commercial and industrial

do
do
do

12
13
14
17
19

Index of net business formation
Number of new business incorporations
Current liabilities of business failures (§)
Ratio price to unit labor cost index mfg
Index of stock prices 500 common stocks @

20.
23
24
27
28
29

Contracts and orders, plant and equipment, 1972 dollars
Index of industrial materials prices @
New orders, capital goods industries nondefense, current dollars
New orders capital goods industries nondefense, 1972 dollars
New private housing units started total
New building permits private housing

37
40
41
42
46
47

Number of persons unemployed
Employees in goods-producing industries
Employees on nonagricultural payrolls
Persons engaged in nonagricultural activities
Index of help-wanted advertising
.
Index of industrial production total

do
... do ...
do
... do...

70 Mfg and trade inventories 1972 dollars

73 Industrial production durable manufactures

Materials and supplies on hand and on order
Average duration of unemployment
Unfilled orders durable goods industries
Money supply {M1} 1972 dollars
Money supply (M2) 1972 dollars

. .

.55

1.66

3.47
1.14
2.16

.69
1.03
2.47

.35

5.92
1.88
5.35
5.31
5.47
4.88

5.65
1.08
4.92
4.91
4.94
4.17

1.58
1.40
1.72
1.66
1.95
2.25

3.58

3.66
.55
.33
.34
2.86
.95

2.71

2.16

1.25

.31
.15
.25
1.84

.41
.28
.22
2.17

.30
.40
.39
.58
.58
.74

. . do .
. . do .
... do .
Jan.53-Dec.77

1.05
1.13
.63
.81
1.00
1.63

.84
.99
.45
.37
.15

.52
.44
.40
.69
.98
.91

Jan.48-Dec.77
do......
do
do......
do
do

.46
.70
.96
1.43
.75
.90

.20
.22
.34
.83
.46
.60

do
Jan.53-Dec.77
Jan. 48- Dec. 77
do
do
do

1.19
1.10
3.70
1.64
.34
.38

.65
.38

do

914 Composite index of capital investment commitments

do
do

1.56
1.34

1.49

.33
.31
.34
.52
.93
.79

do
do

10.38

2.00

.46
.52
.54
.82
1.13
1.13

910 Composite index of 12 leading indicators

1.29

3.13

.53
.21
.18

.41
.66
.90
1.02

.56
.60
.95
1.03
1.66
1.52

.25
.33

.77
2.86
2.96
2.53
1.86

.73
.69
.76
.71
.92

2.27
1.97
1.90
1.87
2.02
1.60

1.55
1.63
1.48

4
2
3
6
2
2

.84
.61
.70
f1)
.92
.86

1.73
2.24
1.87
1.50
2.32
2.35

1.54
1.54
1.52
1.46
1.64
1.74

4
1
3
3
3
2

.88
.77
.94
.97
.89
.99

1.72
2.99
1.77
1.73
1.93
2.03

1.57
1.69
1.54
1.53
1.56
1.54

2
1
1
2
1
1

.64
,76
,55
.57
.85
.69

2.16
3.55
4,85
2.48
3.52
4.03

1.47
1.54
1.55
1.56
1.55
1.60

2
1
1
1
2
2

.57
,78
.89
,89
.97
.59

2.56
3.42
3.12
3.07
2.27
2.53

2
3
2
1
1
2

.92
.88
.62
.53
.16
.74

2.10
2.04
2.53
3.74

1
1
1
1
1
2

0.83

1.50
1.56
1.50

8.55

11.97
9.94
9.45

12.82
10.88
7.80

13.30
12.38
10.26
11.58
7.98

3.39
2.99
3.22
3.05
3.76
3.23

12.82

3.31
3.55
4.85
4,42
3.53
4.03

1.56
1.65
1.62
1.57
1.60
1.59

14.36
17.10
15.61
13.30
18.89
14.36

4.71
3.42
3.12
3.07
3.85
4,65

14.36

12.38
32.64
16.61

3.35
3.76
3.69
3.74

13.30

2.01

1.56
1.57
1.57
1.55
1.69
1.55

.50
.33
.38
.81
.83
.59

4.49
7.18
7.18
3.74
2.92
2.78

1.53
1.55
1.70
1,63
1.45
1.63

21.12
27.62
18.89
11.22
12.38
11.22

4.49
7.18
7,18
3.74
2.92
4.37

1
1
2
1
1
1

.68
.37
.97
.35
.86
.56

3.59
5.64
2.14
6.41
3.09
4.03

1.55
1.63
1.53
1.68
1.57
1.62

13.81
17.59
10.56
13.81
10.56
14.96

3.59
5.64
3.28
6.41
3.09
4.03

.60
.94
.64
.72
.81
.58

4.49
2.46
2.22
3.45
2.90
4.27

1.59
1.69
1.50
1.74
1.68
1.82

11.22

.72
.81
.58

1
2
2
1
1
1

6.90
9.45
8.97

4.49
3.51
3.89
3.45
2.90
4.27

.76
.55
1.11

.85
.69
1.08

.78
.89
.89
1.62
1.06
1.61
2.25
1.12

.53
.16
1.41

.50
.33
.38
.81
.83
1.01

.68
.37
1.89

.35
.86
.56

13.30

11.22
18,89
15.61
9.45

9.70
8.76

3,17

.86
.73
.67
.68
.61
.77

.43
.58
.51
.35
.37
.37

.71
.37
.39
.49
.46
.63

.78
.78

.42
.38

.61
.66

.69
.57

1
1

.69
.57

3.74
3.70

1.59
1.60

15.61
15.61

3.74
3.70

Jan.48-Dec.77
do
do
do
do
do

.70
.34
.54
.49
1.35
.43

.31
.14
.34
.29

.50
.45
.88
.82

1
1
1
1
2
1

.50
.45
.88
.82
.98
.56

6.41
6.65
2.80
3.15
2.27
4.72

1.53
1.59
1.69
1.56
1.66
1.53

39.89

.21

.62
.30
.39
.36
.66
.37

6.41
6.65
2,80
3.15
3.44
4.72

do
do
do
Jan.64-Dec.77
do
Jan.48-Dec.77
do

.38
.44
.37
.51
.23
.34
.36

.14
.27
.13
.14
.17
.30
.30

.35
.32
.34
.51
.16
.16
.19

1
1
1
1
2
3
2

.39
.85
.39
.28
.62
.67
.83

6.77
2.72
6.19

1.63
1.58
1.69
1.53
1.61
1.45
1.53

15.61

do .
917 Composite index of money and financial flows

25.68

3
3
3
3
3
5

.74

do
do
do

Mfg and trade sales 1972 dollars
Sales of retail stores 1972 dollars
Labor cost per unit of output, mfg
Manufacturers' inventories of finished goods
Consumer installment debt
Machinery and equipment sales and business construction expenditures . . .

2.24

'

2.37
2.01
2.07
2.23
1.90
4.88

.51

do
... do .
do

54 Sales of retail stores current dollars
56 Mfg and trade sales current dollars

78
91
96
105
106

.

do
do

48 Employee hours in nonagricultural establishments
51 Personal income less transfer payments 1972 dollars
52 Personal income 1972 dollars

57
59
62
65
66
69.

.

.79

0.17
2.42
1.58
1.46
1.32
1.94

do
do
do .
.....do

.60
1.57
1.28

8.97

11.97

II. OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES

322 Consumer prices food




1.05

1.59

.56
.39
.85
.39
.28
1.11
1.89
1.56

167.00
3.04
1.98
2.26

15.61
8.35
7.98
8.76

14.36

8.97

13.30
167.00
23.86

17.10
17.10

6.77
2.72
6.19

167.00
4.74
4.52
3.58

95

A. MOD and Related Measures of Variability—Continued
Part I, Monthly Series: Average Percentage Changes—Continued
T/c
Monthly series

Period covered

Cl

'

C

T/C

MCO

for
MCD
span

Average duration of run

(ADR)

Cl

1

C

MCD

II. OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES-Continued
Jan.48-Dee.77

444
445.
446.
447
448.
§16

Number unemployed males 20 years and over .
Number unemployed, females 20 years and over
Number unemployed, both sexes, 16*19 years of age
Number unemployed full-time workers
Number employed part-time for economic reasons
Defense Department obligations incurred total

525
548
602.
604.
606.
612.

Military prime contract awards in U S
Manufacturers' new orders defense products
Exports, excluding military aid shipments
Exports of agricultural products
Exports of nonelectrical machinery . .
General imports, total

Jan.51-Dec.77
Feb.68-Dec.77
Jan.48-Dac.77
Jan.65-Dec.77

614
616.
721,
722.
723.
725.

Imports of petroleum and petroleum products
Imports of automobiles and parts
OECD European countries, industrial production
United Kingdom, industrial production
Canada, industrial production
West Germany, industrial production

Jan.65-Dec.77

726.
727.
728.
732.
733.
735.

France, industrial production
..
Italy industrial production . . .
Japan industrial production
.
United Kingdom consumer prices (§)
Canada, consumer prices (g)
West Germany consumer prices (S)

736.
737.
738,
742.
743.
745.

France, consumer prices (u)
Italy, consumer prices ©
Japan, consumer prices ©
United Kingdom, stock prices <§)
Canada, stock prices (u)
West Germany, stock prices ©

746. France, stock prices <§)
747. Italy stock prices ®
748. Japan, stock prices ©

do
do
Jan.63-Dec.77
May SB-Dec. 77
July 53-Dsc.??

0.65
.82
.79
.66
.88

D

2,46
1.79
1.62
1.99
1.77
1.55

1.57
1.47
1.45
1.47
1.57
1.53

7.80
10.56
7.18
7.78
7.97
7.32

3.89
3.37
3.21
3.49
3,45
2.01

1.43
1.51
1.54
1.67
1.67
1.65

11.54
7.87
8.97
7.05
10.33
9.45

2.16
1.92
3.78
3.49
2.56
3.31

19.46
5.25
8.66
5.58
4.17

2.03
1.86
1.27
2.20
1.26
1.39

9.59
15.13
4.13
3.95
4.42
3.01

6
6
5
6
5
3

P)
.90
.99

1.47
1.51
1.83
1.8?
1.70
1.86

10.62
10.74
.85
1.14
.91
1.51

10.00
9.84
.84
1.13
.72
1.40

2.59
2.49
.48
.42
.53
.81

3.86
3.95
1.76
2.69
1.34
1.74

3
4
2
4
2
2

.98
.91
.96
.74
.68
.90

1.76
1.70
4.11
3.18
2.38
2.97

1.46
1.65
1.78
1.66
1.61
1.58

7.75
11.92
23.91
9.97
12.38
IB. 89

2.39
2,70
7,49
6.36
4.21
5.04

1.67
1.93
1.72
.64
.40
.44

1.71
1.74
1.08
.36
.19
.32

.64
.76
1.24
.54
.35
.37

2.66
2.28
.87
.68
.55
.86

3
3
1
1
1
1

.95
.81
.87
.68
.55
.86

2.83
2.06
3.17
6.30
5.06
8.63

1.50
1.67
1.49
1.57
1.60
1.71

16.15
16.32
17.05
15.61
13.30
7. S3

5.53
5.25
3.17
6.30
5.06
8.63

Jan.50-Dec.77

.78
.61
1.15
3.66
2.95
3.51

.36
.34
.88
2.79
2.38
2.42

.66
.52
.70
2.08
1.61
2.33

.55
.65
1.26
1.34
1.48
1.04

1
1
2
2
3
2

.55
.65
.75
.87
.67
.64

6.77
8.16
2.58
2.60
2. 66
2.94

1.69
1.61
1.77
1.79
1.83
1.73

15.61
15.61
15.61
9.97
9.97
6.98

6,77
8.16
3.98
3.54
4.52
4.12

Jan.48-Dec.77
Jan.49-Dec.77
Jan.48-Dec.77

4,20
3.84
4.42

3.57
3.13
2.91

1.83
1.77
2.75

1.94
1.77
1.06

3
3
2

.76
.83
.67

2.18
2.44
2.85

1.79
1.89
1.64

7.64
8.46
7.18

4,01
4.42
4,07

Jan.56-Dec.77
Jan.48-Dec.77

do
do
Jan.51-Dec.77
Jan.48-Dec.77
Jan.48-Nov.77
Jan.48-Dec.77

do .
June 48-Dec.77

.... do ..
do. .
. . .do
do

...

2
3
4
2
3
6

28.20

Jan.48-Dec.77

...
..

1.21
2.33
3.31
1.28
2.56
10.21

5,57
9.38
5.97
4.61

do. .

...

2.73
1.91
1.76
1.66
1.46
1.00

19.57

do

„

3.30
4.46
5.83
2.13
3.74
10.26

28.68

Jan.48-Dec.77

..

4.67
4.93
6.24
2.84
4.14
10.45

(*)

n
.87

©Measuresare based on unadjusted data.
' Not shown when MCD is 6.

Brief Definitions of Measures Shown in Part I
The following are brief definitions; more complete explanations appear in Electronic Computers and
Business Indicators, by Julius Shiskin, issued as Occasional Paper 57 by the National Bureau of Economic
Research, 1957 (reprinted from Journal of Business, October 1957).

"T/C " is a measure of relative smoothness (small values) or irregularity (large values) of the seasonally
adjusted series. It is shown for 1-month spans and for spans of the period of MCD. When MCD is "8", no T/C
ratio is shown for the MCD period.

"Cl" is the average month to month percentage change, without regard to sign, in the seasonally adjusted
series (i.e., the series after adjustment for measurable seasonal, trading-day, and holiday variations).

"Average Duration of Run" (ADR) is another measure of smoothness and is equal to the average number
of consecutive monthly changes in the same direction in any series of observations. When there is no change
between 2 months, a change in the same direction as the preceding change is assumed. The ADR is shown for
the seasonally adjusted series Cl, irregular component I, cyclical component C, and the MCD curve. The MCO
curve is an unweighted moving average (with the number of terms equal to MCD} of the seasonally adjusted
series.

"C"
series.

is the same for the cyclical component, a smooth, flexible moving average of the seasonally adjusted

"I" is the same for the irregular component, obtained by dividing the cyclical component into the
seasonally adjusted series.
"MCO" (months for cyclical dominance) provides an estimate of the appropriate time span over which to
observe cyclical movements in a monthly series. It is small for smooth series and targe for irregular series. In
deriving MCD, percentage changes are computed separately for the irregular component and the cyclical
component over 1°month spans (Jan.-Peb., Feb.-Mar., etc.), 2-month spans (Jan.-Mar., Feb.-Apr., etc.), up to
12-month spans. Averages, without regard to sign, are then computed for the changes over each span. MCD is
the shortest span in months for which the average percentage change (without regard to sign) in the cyclical
component is larger than the average percentage change (without regard to sign) in the irregular component,
and remains so. Thus, it indicates the point at which fluctuations in the seasonally adjusted series become
dominated by cyclical rather than irregular movements. All series with an MCD greater than "5" are shown as
"6".

96



A comparison of these ADR measures with the expected ADR of a random series gives an indication of
whether the changes approximate those of a random series. Over 1-month intervals, the expected ADR of a
random series is 1.5, and the actual AOR falls between 1.36 and 1.75 about 95 percent of the time. Over
1-month intervals in a moving average (MCD} of a random series, the expected ADR is 2, For example, in a
series with ADR measures of 1.56 for Cl, 1.45 for I, 8.71 for C, and 3.15 for MCD, the 1.58 for Cl Indicates
that 1-month changes in the seasonally adjusted series reverse sign, on average, about as often as expected in a
random series. The 1.45 for I and 8.71 for C suggest that the seasonally adjusted series has been separated
into an essentially random component and a cyclical (nonrandom) component. The 3.15 for MCD indicates
that the MCD moving average of the seasonally adjusted data reverses direction, on average, about every 3
months. Thus, for this series, month-to-mumh changes in the MCD moving average usually reflect underlying
short-term trend movements while montlvt&>month changes in the seasonally adjusted series usually do not.

A. MCD and Related Measures of Variability- -Continued
Part II. Monthly Series; Average Actual Changes
Average duration of run

T/c
Monthly series

Unit of measure

Period covered

CI

C

'

T/c

MCD

for
MCD
span

(ADR)

CI

1

C

MCD

1.67
1.61
1.47

8.55
7.64
8.55

4.25
4.82
7.02

1. CYCLICAL INDICATORS
2.
3
4.
21.

Accession rate mfg
Layoff rate mfg
Quit rate, mfg . . .
Average weekly overtime, production
workers, mfg
25. Change in unfilled orders, durable
31. Change in book value, mfg. and
trade inventories . .

.

Jan.48-Dec.77

Per 100 employees

do.
do

do . . .

do

...

32. Vendor performance, slower deliveries © . . .
33. Net change in mortgage debt
36. Net change in inventories on hand and on
order 1972 dollars (smoothed)
...
38. Change in stocks of materials and supplies
on hand and on order mfg
..
43. Unemployment rate total
.. .
44 Unemployment rate 15 weeks and over
45. Average weekly insured unemployment rate . .
60. Ratio, help-wanted advertising
to unemployment
77. Ratio, deflated inventories to sales,
mfg. and trade
85 Change in money supply (Ml)
90. Ratio, civilian employment to
total population
92. Change in sensitive prices (smoothed)

0.16

0.07

.16
.08

.14
.06

.07
.05

2.39
2.14
1.16

3
3
2

0.92
.83
.56

2.55
2.70
4.08

Hours

Jan.56-Dec.77

.10

.09

.05

1.94

3

.68

3.65

1.57

10.96

5.67

Billion dollars

Jan.48-Dec.77

.61

.57

.17

3.46

4

.99

1.70

1.57

8.35

3.30

Annual rate, billion dollars

Feb.48-Dec.77

5.73

5.52

1.33

4.16

5

.89

1.58

1.52

6.28

2.64

Percent
Annual rate, billion dollars

Jan.48-Dec.77
Jan.55-Dec.77

3.87
2.17

2.99
1.90

2.28

1.31
2.45

2
3

.87
.90

2.94
1.75

1.79
1.42

8.35
10.58

4.02
3.37

do

May 48-Dec.77

2.41

1.09

1.78

Billion dollars
Percent

do
Ratio

do
Percent

.

109.
112.
113.
114
115
116

Average prime rate charged by banks © . . . .
Change in bank loans to businesses
Change in consumer installment debt
Treasury bill rate © . ,
Treasury bond yields ©
Corporate bond yields ©
...

Percent
Annual rate, billion dollars

117.
118
1 19
940.

Municipal bond yields ©
Mortgage yields secondary market ©
Federal funds rate °®
Ratio, coincident index to lagging index

Percent ,

. ...

do
do

Ratio

5.55

3.78

1.45
1.56
1.51

7.84
7.48
7.04

3.43
4.16
7.46

.67

1

.67

4.82

1.75

7.89

4.82

.96

1

.96

2.76

1.59

10.56

2.76

1.83
9.95

3
6

.67
(l)

2.22
1.55

1.59
1.51

9.97
8.76

4.58
2.77

2.17
1.54

3
3

.77
.95

1.77
2.99

1.55
2.49

9.70
7.48

3.92
4.15

.09

.14

.04

.02

.02

.02
.27

.01
.26

.01
.03

.19
.32

.17
.24

.08
.16

.do

145.69

123.16

64.54

1.91

3

.69

1.89

1.57

8.16

3.37

.do

111.23

88.70

58.06

1.53

2

.93

2.09

1.65

8.76

2.93

.do.

.06
.21
.05
.01

.03
.20
.04
.01

.05
.04
.03
.01

4.50
1.20
1.15

1
6
2
2

.71
t1)
.98
.62

3.86
1.73
3.94
2.72

1.73
1.52
2.52
1.53

13.30
6.65
7.24
7.64

3.86
3.03
4.32
3.85

.07

1
6
3
2
3
3

.70

4.70
2.78
1.27
1.50
1.79

.81
.74
.76

15.61
1.73
1.75
2.68
2.92
2.16

2.46
1.54
1.58
1.97
1.88
1.71

7.80
6.65
8.97
9.70
7.80
9.45

15.61
3.28
3.28
3.98
4.96
3.72

3
1
1
1

.74
.67
.89
.94

2.44
6.80
2.80
3.09

1.79
1.86
1.58
1.65

8.35
7.89
9.03
8.35

4.41
6.80
2.80
3.09

do

do .

2.28

1.59
2.85
4.99

.17

.do

Million dollars . .

3.78

.82
.62
.56

Jan.49-Dec.77

do

do
do

.61

Jan.48-Dec.77

do
...

1
4
2
2

.61

.40
.13
.05

do

do

.78

.42
.18
.07

Feb.53-Dec.77
Jan.48-Dec.77

93 Free reserves ©
94. Member bank borrowing from
Federal Reserve ©
95. Ratio, consumer installment debt to
personal income
102 Change in money supply (M2) .
104 Change in total liquid assets (smoothed) . . .
108. Ratio, personal income to money supply (M2) .

.do
May 48-Dec.77
Jan.48-Dec.77

.12
.11
.05

3.35
1.20
1.12

.71

do

do
do
.do

do
do

.do
do
do

.19
.08
.14

.14
.06
.12

.10
.81
.51
.11
.04
.07

do

.10
.07
.26
.98

.09
.04
.17
.62

.05
.05
.19
.66

1.68

Percent

do

do
Index- 1967=100 .

Jan.49-Dec.77
Aug.54-Dec.77
Jan.48-Dec.77

Percent

Jan.48-Dec.77

do
....

0.18

.10
3.93
1.51

3.81
1.41

.70

.67
.89
.94

n
.98

II. OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
451. Participation rate, males 20 years and over . . .
452 Participation rate, females 20 years and over . .
453. Participation rate, both sexes, 16-19 years

of age

do

do

.18
.24

.17
.23

.05
.07

3.30
3.16

4
4

.97
.80

2.15
2.02

1.61
1.52

7.18
8.35

4.14
4.19

do

do

.75

.70

.21

3.39

4

.98

1.85

1.56

7.04

3.27

©Measures are based on unadjusted data.
1
Not shown when MCD is 6.

Brief Definitions of Measures Shown in Part II
These measures are computed by an additive method. This method is used for series with zero or negative
data and for other series where it seems appropriate, such as series expressed in percent.
Thus, "CI" is the average month-to-month change in the seasonally adjusted series. This average is
computed without regard to sign and is expressed in the same unit of measure as the series itself.




"C" is the same for the cyclical component, which is a moving average of the seasonally adjusted series.
"I" is the same for the irregular component, which is determined by subtracting the cyclical component
from the seasonally adjusted series.
All other measures have the same meaning as in part I.

97

A. QCD and Related Measures of Variability
Part I. Quarterly Series: Average Percentage Changes
Quarterly series

Period covered

Cl

1

C

T/C

QCD

I/C
for
DCD
span

Average duration of run
(ADR)

Cl

1

C

QCO

1. CYCLICAL INDICATORS
11.
16
18
34
35
49.

New capital appropriations, mfg
Corporate profits after taxes, current dollars
Corporate prof its after taxes, 1972 dollars
Net cash flow, corporate, current dollars
Net cash flow, corporate, 1972 dollars
Value of goods output, 1972 dollars

,

50.
55.
61,
63.
68
79

6NP, 1972 dollars
PCE, automobiles
,
Business expenditures, new plant and equipment
Unit labor cost, private business sector
Labor cost per unit of gross domestic product
Corporate profits after taxes, with IVA and CCAdj, current dollars

,

,

80 Corporate profits after taxes, with IVA and CCAdj 1972 dollars
86 Nonresidential fixed investment total 1972 dollars

IQ 53-IVQ 77
IQ 48-IVQ 77
do
do
do
do

8.68
5.91
5.67
4.56
4.33
1.68

4.64
2.73
2.75
2.03
2.08
.74

6.55
4.51
4.27
3.53
3.27
1.36

0.71
.61
.64
,58
.64
.55

1
1
1
1
1
1

0,71
.61
.64
.58
.64
.55

do
do
do
do
do
do

1.22
7.21
3.05
1.11
1.15
7.54

.37
4.53
1.06
.40
.45
4.19

1.09
4.86
2,71
,97
1.00
5.22

.33
,93
.39
.42
.45
,80

1
1
1
1
1
1

do .
do
do
do
do
IQ 53-IVQ 77
IQ 52-IVQ 77

7,51
2.41
2.20
3.18
4,37
5.13
10.20

4.20
.89
1.10
1.43
1.39
.92
5.71

5.19
2.04
1.81
2.62
4.03
4.94
7,39

,81
.44
.61
.54
.34
,19
,77

IQ 48-IVQ 77
do
do
do
do
do. .. .

1.92
1.03
1.04
1.99
1,80
1.13

.42
.38
.36
.43
.41
,47

1,85
.97
.88
1.87
1.76
1.01

2.91
2.77
2.59
2.43
2.38
3.05

1.24
1.34
1.34
1.23
1,28
1,31

3.96
4,25
4.58
5.17
3,97
5.67

2.91
2,77
2.59
2.43
2,38
3,05

.33
.93
.39
,42
.45
.80

5.67
2.70
4.10
3,50
3.72
2.59

1.34
1.24
1.27
1.29
1.29
1.32

9.15
3.84
5.95
7.00
7.00
3.97

5,67
2.70
4.10
3.50
3.72
2,59

1
1
1
1
1
1
1

.81
.44
.61
.54
.34
.19
.77

2.48
2.83
3,22
2.83
3,40
3.81
2.34

1.32
1.35
1.34
1.29
1.28
1.27
1.29

4.10
4.96
5.17
4.96
6.26
6.19
4.12

2.48
2.83
3.22
2.83
3.40
3,81
2.34

.23
.39
.41
.23
.23
.46

1
1
1
1
1
1

,23
.39
.41
,23
.23
.46

9.15
4.41
3.40
7.00
17.00
4.76

1.28
1.20
1,31
1.37
1,40
1.37

13.22
13,22
7.00
13.22
23,80
9.15

9.15
4.41
3.40
7.00
17.00
4,76

88,
89.
97.
110.

Nonresidential fixed investment, producers' durable equipment, 1972 dollars
Residential fixed investment, total, 1972 dollars
Backlog of capital appropriations, mfg
Total private borrowing

200.
213.
217.
220.
224.
225.

GNP, current dollars
Final sales, 1972 dollars
Per capita GNP, 1972 dollars
National income, current dollars
Disposable personal income, current dollars
Disposable personal income, 1972 dollars

227.
230.
231.
232,
233.
236.

Per capita disposable personal income, 1972 dollars
PCE, total, current dollars
PCE, total, 1972 dollars
PCE, durable goods, current dollars
PCE, durable goods, 1972 dollars
PCE, nondurable goods, current dollars

do
do
do
do
do... .
do

.94
1.78
1.07
3.72
3.26
1.52

.46
.46
.42
2.08
1.97
.47

.77
1.68
.95
2.69
2.41
1.46

.60
.27
.44
.77
.82
,32

1
1
1
1
1
1

.60
.27
.44
.77
.82
.32

3.84
9.15
S.67
3.05
2.90
9.15

1.43
1.31
1,25
1.24
1.24
1.25

7.00
23.80
10.82
4.76
4.41
23.80

3.84
9.15
5,67
3.05
2,90
9.15

237.
238.
239.
240.
241.
242.

PCE, services, current dollars
PCE, nondurable goods, 1972 dollars
PCE, services, 1972 dollars
Gross private domestic investment, current dollars
Gross private domestic investment, 1972 dollars
Fixed investment, total, current dollars

do
do
do
do
do
do

2.'02
,93
1.02
5.58
4.84
2.72

.24
.46
.24
2.75
2.53
,83

2.00
.75
.99
4.40
3.79
2.45

.12
,61
.24
.63
.67
.34

1
1
1
1
1
1

.12
.61
.24
.63
.67
.34

119.00
3.84
13.22
2,64
2,59
4.10

1.25
1.28
1.34
1.37
1.29
1.28

119.00
7.93
23.80
5.17
5.41
5.17

119.00
3,84
13.22
2.64
2,59
4,10

243.
252.
253.
256.
257.
260,

Fixed investment, total, 1972 dollars
Exports of goods and services, current dollars
Imports of goods and services, current dollars
Exports of goods and services, 1972 dollars
Imports of goods and services, 1972 dollars
Government purchases of goods and services, current dollars

do
do
do
do...
do . .
do...

2.38
4.41
4.23
3.61
3.37
2.71

.76
2.31
2.10
2.25
2.03
.75

2.12
3.35
3.34
2.48
2.38
2.59

.36
.69
.63
.91
.85
.29

1
1
1
1
1
1

.36
.69
.63
.91
.85
.29

4.10
2.64
2.90
2.16
2.43
7.00

1.34
1.28
1.31
1,23
1,29
1.23

5.95
4.76
5.41
4.10
5.17
17.00

4.10
2.64
2.90
2.16
2,43
7.00

261.
262,
263.
266.
267.
280.

Government purchases of goods and services, 1972 dollars
Federal Government purchases of goods and services, current dollars . . . .
Federal Government purchases of goods and services, 1972 dollars
State and local government purchases of goods and services, current dollars .
State and local government purchases of goods and services, 1972 dollars . .
Compensation of employees

do
do
do
do
do
do

1.70
3.43
2.76
2.52
1.37
1.98

.63
1.29
1.06
.47
.46
.28

1.48
3.13
2.34
2,46
1.24
1.96

.42
.41
.45
.19
.37
.14

1
1
1
1
1
1

.42
.41
.45
.19
.37
.14

2.90
3.61
3.05
17.00
5.67
13.22

1.25
1.23
1.25
1.23
1.34
1.32

5,67
5.17
5.17
39.67
13,22
13,22

2.90
3.61
3.05
17.00
5,67
13.22

282.
284.
286.
288.
290.
292.

Proprietors' income, with IVA and CCAdj
Rental income of persons, with CCAdj
Corporate profits, with IVA and CCAdj
Net interest
Gross saving
Personal saving

do
do
do
do
do
do

2.24
2.12
5.29
3.52
5.56
15,02

1.18
.92
2.63
1.02
2.83
10.98

1.69
1.61
4.07
3.47
4,19
8.31

.69
.57
.65
.29
.67
1.32

1
1
1
1
1
2

.69
.57
.65
.29
.67
.48

2.90
6.26
2.70
29.75
2.48
1.95

1.34
1.37
1.32
1.29
1.35
1.25

4.76
13.22
4.58
29.75
4.96
3,61

2.90
6.26
2.70
29.7$
2.48
2.88

II. OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES




. .

.

A. QCD and Related Measures of Variability—Continued
Part I. Quarterly Series: Average Percentage Changes—Continued
Quarterly series

Period covered

Cl

'

C

I/C

QCD

I/C
for
QCD
span

Average duration of run
(ADR)

Cl

1

C

QCD

5,17

2.59

tl. OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES-Continued

3.27

346. Real average hourly compensation nonfarm business sector
358 Output per hour nonfarm business sector
370 Output per hour private business sector

IQ 48-IVQ 77
do
do
do
do
do
do

501.
502.
511.
512.
564
618

Federal Government receipts
Federal Government expenditures
State and local government receipts .
State and local government expenditures .
Federal Government purchases of goods and services for national defense
Merchandise exports excluding military grants

do
do
do
do
do
IQ 60-IVQ 77

3.18
3.34
2.51
2.43
3.39
5.08

1.10
3.08

2.75
2.85
2.45
2.38
3.13
3.18

620
651.
652
668
669

Merchandise imports excluding military
Income on U.S investments abroad
Income on foreign investments in the U S .
Exports of goods and services excluding military grants
Imports of goods and services total

. .

do
do
do
do
do

5.34
7.10
5.48
4.17
4.27

2.55
4.98
2.50
2.18
1.92

4.21
4.47
4.89
3.01
3.60

295. Business saving . . . .
310. Implicit price deflator, GNP
311. Fixed weighted price index gross business product

CCAdj
IVA
PCE

. . . .

. . .

.93
.89
1.43

.74
.87
.95

1.79

.19
.19
.22
.30
.43
.48
1.33
1.24

.68
.45

2.43

.89
.85
1.42

.66
.71
.82

.21
.22
.16
.45
.61
.59

1
1
1
1
1
1
1

.48
.44
.28
.19
.35
.97

1
1
1
1
1
1

.48
.44
.28
.19
.35
.97

13.22
17.00
3.40
1.97

1.42
1.40
1.25
1.34
1.28
1.27

.61

1
2
1
1
1

.61
.42
.51
.72
.53

3.55
1.77
3.23
2.96
3.74

1.29
1.25
1,18
1,31
1.29

0.73

1.12

.51
.72
.53

0.73

.21
.22
.16
.45
.61
.59

2.59

10.82
10.82
119.00
4.96
2.64
3.05
4.58
3.84

1.29
1.28
1.37
1.31
1.32
1.24
1.21

23.80 10.82
17.00 10.82
119.00 119.00
13.22
4.96
7,00
7.00

2.64
3.05

6.61
9.15

4.58
3.84

119.00
39.67

13.22
17.00

4.41
3.94

3.40
1.97

6,45
3.94
7,10
5.92

3.55
3.50
3.23
2.96
3.74

11.83

Capital consumption adjustment.
Inventory valuation adjustment.
Personal consumption expenditures.

Brief Definitions of Measures Shown in Part I
The following are brief definitions; more complete explanations appear in Electronic Computers and
Business Indicators, by Julius Shiskin, issued as Occasional Paper 57 by the National Bureau of Economic
Research, 1957 (reprinted iwm Journal of Business, October 1957).

"I/C" is a measure of relative smoothness (small values) or irregularity (large values) of the seasonally
adjusted series. It is shown for 1-quarter spans and for spans of the period of QCQ. When QCD is "4," noT/C
ratio is shown for the QCD period.

"Cl" is the average quarter-to-puarter percentage change, without regard to sign, in the seasonally adjusted
series or, if the series contains no measurable seasonal, in the unadjusted series.

"Average Duration of Run" (ADR} is another measure of smoothness and is equal to the average number
of consecutive quarterly changes in the same direction in any series of observations. When there is no change
between 2 quarters, a change in the same direction as the preceding change is assumed. The ADR is shown for
the seasonally adjusted series Cl, irregular component I, cyclical component C, and the QCQ curve. The QCD
curve is an unweighted moving average (with the number of terms equal to QCD) of the seasonally adjusted
series.

"C " is the same for the cyclical component, a smooth, flexible moving average of the seasonally adjusted
series.
"I" is the same for the irregular component, obtained by dividing the cyclical component into the
seasonally adjusted series.
"QCD" (quarters for cyclical dominance) provides an estimate of the appropriate time span over which to
observe cyclical movements in a quarterly series. It is small for smooth series and large for irregular series. In
deriving QCD, percentage changes are computed separately for the irregular component and the cyclical
component over 1-quarter spans (1st quartered quarter, 2d quartered quarter, etc.), 2-quarter spans (1st
quartered quarter, 2d quarter-4th quarter, etc.), up to 4-quarter spans. Averages, without regard to sign, are
then computed for the changes over each span. QCD is the shortest span in quarters for which the average
percentage change (without regard to sign) in the cyclical component is larger than the average percentage
change (without regard to sign} in the irregular component, and remains so. Thus, it indicates the point at
which fluctuations in the seasonally adjusted series become dominated by cyclical rather than irregular
movements. All series with a QCD greater than "3" are shown as "4."




9

A comparison of these measures of ADR with the expected ADR of a random series gives an indication of
whether the changes approximate those of a random series. Over 1-quarter intervals in a random series, the
expected value of the ADR is 1.5. The actual value of ADR falls between 1.36 and 1.75 about 95 percent of
the time. Over 1-quarter intervals in a moving average (QCD) of a random series, the expected value of ADR is
2.0. For example, in a series with ADR measures of 1.63 for Cl, 1.39 for I, 3.51 for C, and 3.27 for QCD, the
1.63 for Cl indicates that 1-quarter changes in the seasonally adjusted series reverse sign, on average, about as
often as expected in a random series. The 1.39 for I and 3.51 for C suggest that the seasonally adjusted series
has been separated into an essentially random component and a cyclical (nonrandom) component. The 3.27
for QCD indicates that the QCD moving average of the seasonally adjusted series reverses direction, on
average, about every 3 quarters. Thus, for this series, quarter-to-quarter changes in the QCD moving average
usually reflect underlying short-term trend movements of the series, while quarter-to-quarter changes in the
seasonally adjusted series usually do not.

99

A. QCD and Related Measures of Variability—Continued
Part II. Quarterly Series: Average Actual Changes
Quarterly series

Unit of measure

Period covered

T

Cl

7/c

C

QCD

I/C
for
QCD
span

Average duration of run
(ADR)

Cl

1

C

QCD

1. CYCLICAL INDICATORS
1 5. Profits (after taxes) per dollar of
sales mfg
....
22. Ratio, profits (after taxes) to
corporate domestic income . . .
30. Change in business inventories, 1972 dollars . .
58 Index of consumer sentiment (§).
64. Compensation of employees as percent of
national income . ,

Cents

IQ 48-IVQ 77

Percent
Annual rate, billion dollars
Index: 101966=100

.. ..do
do
IQ 62-IVQ 77

,54
4.41
3.49

.28
3.18
2.26

Percent

IQ 48-IVQ 77
IQ 48-IVQ 76

.41
.25

Ratio

IQ 48-IVQ 77
do
IQ 66-IVQ 77
IQ 48-IVQ 77
do

Percent

IQ 48-IVQ 77

do
81. Ratio, profits (after taxes) with IVA and
CCAdj -to corporate domestic income
82 Rate of capacity utilization, mfg. (FRB) . . . .
83 Rate of capacity utilization mfg (BEA)
84 Rate of capacity utilization materials
107 Ratio GNP to money supply Ml

do
do
do
do

0.27

0.79

1

0.79

2,70

1.38

3.31

2,70

.39
2.67
2.31

.72
1.19
.98

1
2
1

.72
.48
.98

2,77
1.70
1.80

1.31
1,32
1.19

3.84
3.31
4,20

2,77
2.68
1.80

.24
.10

.30
.22

.80
.48

1
1

.80
.48

2.70
2.40

1,29
1.40

5.17
3.83

2,70
2,40

.59
1.66
1.08
2.32
.04

.35
.64
.68
1.06
,02

.42
1.39
.89
1.84
.04

.84
.46
.77
.58
.44

.84
.46
.77
,58
.44

2.29
3.40
3.00
2.97
3.61

1.27
1.37
1.33
1.3?
1.34

4.41
5.17
3.00
4.41
7.00

2.29
3.40
3.00
2.97
3.61

.47

.32

.32

.98

1

.98

2.20

1.21

3.50

2,20

do

4.16

3.11

2.51

1.24

2

.48

1.70

1.29

3.72

2.81

0.15

0.19

II. OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
235 PCE as percent of GNP
245. Change in business inventories,
current dollars
. .....
247. Change in business inventories as percent
of GNP
248. Nonresidentiat fixed investment as percent
of GNP
249. Residential fixed investment as percent
of GNP
250. Net exports of goods and services,
current dollars
....
251. Net exports as percent of GNP
255. Net exports of goods and services,
1972 dollars
265. Federal Government purchases of goods
and services as percent of GNP
288. State and local government purchases of goods
and services as percent of GNP
283. Proprietors' income, with IVA and CCAdj,
as percent of national income .

Annual rate, billion dollars

do

.62

.45

.38

1.17

Z

.47

1.92

1.29

3,13

2.81

do

do

.17

.10

.14

.74

1

.74

2.97

1.29

4.58

2.97

do

.08

.17

.47

1

.47

3.40

1.23

5.17

3,40

Percent

do

.19

Annual rate, billion dollars

do

1.61

.95

1.29

.73

1

.73

2.33

1.23

4.76

2.33

Percent

do

.22

.12

.18

.70

1

.70

2.77

1.20

4.41

2.77

Annual rate, billion dollars

do

1.49

.86

1.12

.77

1

.77

2.33

1.31

5.67

2.33

Percent

do

.31

.14

.27

.52

1

.52

3.22

1.28

4.76

3.22

do

do

.13

.06

.11

.53

1

.53

3.84

1.34

5.17

3,84

do . ...

do

.23

.14

.17

.83

1

.83

2.90

1.34

4.41

2.90

285. Rental income of persons, with CCAdj, as
percent of national income . . .
do
...
287. Corporate profits, with IVA and CCAdj, as
percent of national income
do
289. Net interest as percent of national income . . .
do
293. Personal saving rate
do
298. Government surplus or deficit, total
Annual rate, billion dollars
348. Wage and benefit decisions, first year (u) . . , . Annual rate, percent ....
349. Wage and benefit decisions, life of
contract (§)
500. Federal Government surplus or deficit
510. State and local government surplus
or deficit
622. Merchandise trade balance . . . .
667. Balance on goods and services

.

.05

.04

.05

.84

1

.84

5.95

1.37

3.72

5,95

do
do
do
do
IQ 68-IVQ 77

do .

.48
.07
.73
4.53
1.79

.26
.04
.55
2.36
1.13

.34
.06
.44
3.64
1.12

.76
.66
1.23
.65
1.01

1
1
2
1
2

.76
.66
.48
,65
.43

2.59
4.76
1.95
3.22
1.56

1.27
1.29
1.23
1.27
1.26

4.41
4.58
3.40
4.41
2.79

2.59
4.76
2.74
3.22
2.71

do . .
Annual rate, billion dollars

do
IQ 48-IVQ 77

1.08
4.66

.84
2.73

.57
3.39

1.47
.80

2
1

.69
.80

1.70
2.53

1.22
1.29

2.60
4.10

2.24
2,53

do
Million dollars
.... do

do
IQ 60-IVQ 77
do

,75
1.13
520.48 301.69
534,66 326.92

.77
439.72
419.32

.97
.69
.78

1
1
1

.97
,69
.78

2.25
2.22
1.87

1.25
1.37
1.31

3.97
3.94
4.44

2.25
2.22
1.87

<§>
Measures are based on unadjusted data.
CCAdj Capital consumption adjustment.
IVA

Inventory valuation adjustment.

PCE

Personal consumption expenditures.

Brief Definitions of Measures Shown in Part II
These measures are computed by an additive method. This method is used for series with zero or negative
data and for other series where it seems appropriate, such as series expressed in percent.
—
Thus, Cl is the average quarter-to-quarter change in the seasonally adjusted series. This average is
computed without regard to sign and is expressed in the same unit of measure as the series itself.

"C" is the same for the cyclical component, which is a moving average of the seasonally adjusted series,
"T" is the same for the irregular component, which is determined by subtracting the cyclical component
from the seasonally adjusted series,
All other measures have the same meaning as in part I.

100



B. Current Adjustment Factors
19 78

19 77
July

5. Average weekly initial claims, State
unemployment insurance
13. New business incorporations

1

Aug.

Sept.

Oct.

103.7

79.2

73.2

84.2

100.6

99.1

95.5

94.3

15. Profits (after taxes) per dollar of sales,
manufacturing2

100.7

Nov.

Dec.

Jan.

Feb.

100.3

139.1

154.0

112.4

95.8

101.2

89.8

90.2

98 4

Apr.

May

95.4

87 0

80 1

85 3

114.7

100.5

109 5

108 2

Mar.

93 9

June

107 5

33. Net change in mortgage debt held by financial
institutions and life insurance companies1 3 .

781

766

-2

-497

-354

318

-1409

-1291

-166

140

760

1245

72. Commercial and industrial loans outstanding. .

100.0

99.3

99.4

99.9

100.6

101,6

100.6

99.0

99.8

100.2

99,9

99.8

516. Defense Department obligations total. . . .

91 5

83 5

121 0

132 6

107 9

98 5

103 4

89 5

89 6

104 6

82 6

94 4

525. Military prime contract awards in U.S

79 9

81 1

173 2

128 8

in 6

95 7

100 0

84 0

89 2

94 4

81 3

77 2

1

604 Exports of agricultural products

88 5

85 6

84 0

103 1

118 6

110 1

106 9

inn ^

infi fi

in } ^

QR 4

Qn Q

606 Exports of nonelectrical machinery

95 8

95 5

91 8

104 3

98 6

101 8

95 9

94 3

109 9

105 2

infi 1

in? Q

614. Imports of petroleum and products

103 7

107 2

93 4

95 4

91 6

102 1

106 1

90 4

106 6

106 4

95 8

QQ R

93 9

84 2

83 6

97 3

101 1

103 8

101 8

94 8

117 3

inft l

in? i

ino "3

616 Imports of automobiles and parts
969. Profits, manufacturing (Citibank)**

-8

_2

-8

18

NOTE: These series are seasonally adjusted by the Bureau of Economic Analysis or the National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc., rather than by the source agency. Seasonal adjustments
are kept current by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Seasonally adjusted data prepared by the source agency will be used in Business Conditions Digest whenever they are available. For a description of the method used to compute these factors, see Bureau of the Census Technical Paper No. 15, The X-11 Variant of the Census Method II Seasonal Adjustment Program.
1

Factors are the products of seasonal and trading-day factors,
Quarterly series; factors are placed in the middle month of the quarter.
3
These quantities, in millions of dollars, are subtracted from the month-to-month net change in the unadjusted monthly totals to yield the seasonally adjusted net change. These factors are
computed by the additive version of the X-11 variant of the Census Method II seasonal adjustment program.
"1-quarter diffusion index; factors are placed in the first month of the quarter. The unadjusted diffusion index is computed and these factors, computed by the additive version of the X-11
variant of the Census Method II seasonal adjustment program, are subtracted to yield the seasonally adjusted index.
2




101

C. Historical Data for Selected Series
Quarterly

Monthly

Annual

Year

Jan,

Feb.

Mar.

Apr.

May

June

July

Aug.

Sept.

Nov.

Oct.

Dec.

IQ

60. RATIO, HELP-WANTED ADVERTISING IN NEWSPAPERS TO NUMBER OP PERSONS UNEMPLOYED '
(RATIO)

tlQ

Ml Q

IV Q

AVERAGE FOR PP.RIQD

1948...
1949...
1950...
1951...
1932,.,
1953...
1954..,
1933...
1936...
1957...

O.SS2
0.339
0,251
0.801
1.027
1.165
0.435
0.443
0.739
0.733

0,806
0,418
0.257
0.886
1.020
1.32?
0,384
0.491
0.800
0.749

0,732
0.393
0.269
0.924
1,067
1.392
0.338
0.331
0.744
0,771

0.737
0,347
0.308
0.992
1.086
1.295
0.326
0.518
0.787
0.710

0.830
0.305
0.329
1.059
1.038
1.362
0,316
0.607
0.718
0.670

0.793
0.276
0.354
0,940
1.027
1,296
0.344
0.639
0.702
0.605

0.781
0.246
0.410
0,977
0.987
1.201
0.325
0.679
0.655
0.639

0,748
0.234
0.521
0.986
0.956
1.145
0.309
0.674
0.739
0.618

0.802
0.235
0.536
0,908
1.092
0.997
0.303
0.?44
0.746
0.566

0.751
0,188
0.612
0.882
1.197
0.845
0.325
0,683
0.810
0.513

0.690
0,224
0.609
0.888
1.265
0.686
0.376
0.728
0.718
0.405

0.588
0.212
0,576
0.988
1.321
0.486
0.410
0.766
0.715
0.38S

0.830
0.450
0.259
0.870
1.038
1.298
0.386
0,488
0,768
0.752

0.787
0,309
0.330
0.997
1.050
1.318
0.329
Q.S88
0.736
0.662

0.777
0.238
0.489
0.957
1.012
1.114
0.312
0.699
0.713
0.608

0,676
0.208
0.599
0,911
1,261
0.672
0.370
0.726
0.748
0.434

0.768
0.301
0.419
0.936
1.090
1,100
0.349
0,625
0.741
0.614

1938...
1959...
I960.,.
1961...
1962,..
1963...
1964...
1968...
1966...
1967...
1968...

0,330
0.366
0,519
0.300
0.445
0.424
0.438
0.608
0.996
1.033
1.065

0.277
0,390
0.564
0.283
0.462
0.407
0,462
0.607
1.077
1.042
1.012

0,252
0,431
0,479
0.288
0.456
0,431
0.467
0.653
1.113
1.021
1.077

0.220
0.492
0.485
0.286
0.457
0.426
0.494
0.646
1.095
1.029
1.165

0.219
0.505
0,484
0.291
0.478
0.402
0.514
0.703
1.060
1.006
1.152

0.229
0,538
0.4S1
0,305
0.465
0.427
0.523
0,721
1.098
0.98S
1.074

0.234
O.S40
0.427
0.308
0.468
0.434
0.569
0.739
1.097
0.981
1.126

0.243
0.515
Q.408
0,337
0.438
0.445
0.554
0.778
1,078
1.011
1.194

0.272
0.497
0.398
0,344
0.436
0.436
0.553
0.815
1.096
0.996
1.253

0,293
0.468
0.350
0.371
0.446
0.448
0.551
0.862
1.096
0.956
1.318

0,334
0.454
0.337
0.409
0,422
0.423
0.604
0.940
1.108
0.971
1.30S

0,355
0.505
0.303
0.413
0.434
0.464
0.587
0.972
1.043
0.996
1.2§7

0.286
0.396
0.321
0.290
0.434
0,421
0.462
0.623
1.062
1.032
1.051

0.223
0,512
0.473
0.294
0.467
0.418
0.510
0.690
1.084
1.007
1.130

0.250
0.517
0.411
0.330
0.447
0.438
0.859
0.777
1.090
0.996
1.131

0.327
0.47S
0.330
0.398
0.434
0.445
0.381
0.92S
1.082
0.974
1.307

0.272
0.47S
0.434
0.320
0.451
0.431
0.528
0.754
1.Q80
1.002
1.170

1969,,.
1970...
1971...
1972...
1973...
1974,,,
1973,,,
1976,.,
1977...
1978...

1.336
1.019
0.467
0.546
0.879
0.76S
0.311
0,352

1.330
0.941
0.488
0.568
0.851
0.740
0.304
0,384

1.350
0.837
0.480
0.568
0.872
0.764
0.200
0.394

1.339
0.784
0.483
0,583
0.846
0.787
0.273
0.378

1.361
0.715
0.486
0.598
0,872
0.757
0.261
0.397

1.268
0.682
0.509
0.604
0.884
0.737
0.300
0.402

1.236
0.634
0.493
0.617
0.906
0.706
0.312
0.396

1.220
0.616
0.487
0,636
0.885
0.688
0.316
0,390

1.214
0.582
0.491
0,653
0.867
0.593
0,314
0.383

1.191
0.520
0.500
0,671
0.928
0.541
0.316
0.389

1.241
0.494
0.498
0.738
0.868
0.448
0.337
0.394

1.187
0.477
0.507
0.818
0.814
0.385
0.341
0.417

1.345
0,932
0.478
0.561
0.867
0.756
0.298
0.37?

1,323
0.727
0.493
0.59S
0.867
0.760
0.278
0.392

0.611
0.490
0.63S
0.886
0.662
0.314
0.390

1.223

1.206
0.497
0.502
0.742
Q.870
0.458
0.331
0.400

1.274
0.692
0.491
0.633
0.873
0.639
0.303
0.390

12. COMMERCIAL AND INDUSTRIAL LOANS OUTSTANDING, WEEKLY REPORTING LARGE COMMERCIAL BANKS a
( M I L L I O N S OF DOLLARS)

AVERAGE FOR PERIOD

1947,. ,
1948...
1949...
1950...
1931...
1952...
1953...
1954...
1953,..
1956...
1957.,,

10,473
13,417
14, OSS
12,677
16,803
19,632
21,227
21,000
20,821
24,515
28,695

10,713
13,388
13,979
12,764
17,116
19,641
21,277
21,064
20,692
24,686
28,720

11,149 ^11,506
13,371
13,473
13,605
13,861
12,849
12,763
18,079
17,579
19,742
19,761
21,430
21,675
21,036
20,967
21,049
20,916
25,414
25,932
29,182
29,503

11,592
13,834
13,409
12,936
18,453
19,809
21,816
20,811
21,416
26,448
29,630

11,639
14,065
13,163
13,242
18,646
19,969
21,747
20,6SO
21,796
26,79<J
30,033

11,770
14,385
12,833
13,619
18,757
20,141
21,778
20,651
22,244
27,145
30,245

12,019
14,507
12,660
14,057
18,865
20,190
21,934
19,804
22,664
27,418
30,285

12,250
14,461
12,641
14,696
18,968
20,381
21,819
19,753
22,977
27,778
30,374

12,548
14,356
12,670
15,027
19,111
20,650
21,640
19,718
23,421
27,858
29,969

12,904
14,196
12,604
15,462
19,194
21,031
21,451
19,955
23,771
28,199
29,573

13,158
14,087
12,573
15,986
19,411
21,133
21,058
20,314
24,110
28,398
29,517

10,779
13,382
13,963
12,738
17,066
19,678
21,311
21,033
20,712
24,872
28,866

11,579
13,791
13,392
13,009
18,393
19,840
21,746
20,809
21,420
26,393
29,729

12,013
14,451
12,711
14,124
18,863
20,237
21,844
20,069
22,628
27,447
30,301

12,870
14,213
12,616
13,492
19,239
20,938
21,383
19,996
23,767
28,131
29,686

11,810
13,959
13,171
13,840
18,390
20,173
21,571
20,477
22,132
26,716
29,64S

1938.,,
1939...
I960..,
1961, .,
1962...
1963...
1964. ,,
1963. ..
1966...
1967. ,,
1968.,,

29,171
28,567
31,433
32,999
33,582
36,030
38,931
43,362
53,062
60,701
65,333

28,833
28,583
31,870
32,966
33,712
36,126
39,195
44,618
53,908
61,023
65,595

28,728
28,820
32,093
33,111
33,907
36,251
39,201
45,363
34,585
61,592
63,843

28,554
29,092
32,293
33,079
34,121
36,458
39,554
46,203
55,022
61,996
67,010

28,168
29,573
32,591
33,020
34,269
36,626
39,882
47,209
55,87?
62,132
67,184

28,079
30,042
33,011
32,955
34,509
36,740
40,137
47,718
56,955
62,494
67,664

28,039
30,026
32,993
33,012
34,740
36,872
40,428
48,072
57,838
62,824
68,015

27,941
30,456
32,840
33,131
35,038
37,047
40,839
49,139
58,857
62,875
68,681

28,122
30,646
32,956
33,214
35,318
37,341
41,418
50,141
59,328
63,203
69,339

28,215
30,915
32,996
33,215
35,635
37,821
41,625
50,812
59,822
63,587
70,163

28,342
31,076
33,118
33,280
35,939
38,579
42,068
51,650
60,282
64,065
71,105

28,496
28,911
31,288
28,657
33,018 . 31,799
33,429
33,02S
35,986
33,734
39,045
36,139
42,737
39,109
52,300
44,581
60,532
33,852
64,830
61,105
72,210
65,590

28,267
29,569
32,632
33,018
34,300
36,608
39,858
47,043
55,951
62,207
67,286

28,034
30,376
32,930
33,119
35,032
37,087
40,898
49,11?
38,674
62,967
68,678

28,351
31,093
33,044
33,308
33,883
38,482
42,143
51,587
60,212
64,161
71,159

28,391
29,924
32,601
33,118
34,730
37,079
40,901
48,082
57,172
62,610
68,178

73,450 74,190
83,205 84,229
83,235 83,709
84,509 85,052
93,885 98,131
114,538 ]L 1 4 , 6 4 5
132,143 ]1 3 0 , 4 6 5
120,242 ] 20,375

74,886
34,462
83,851
85,444
] 01,548
]117,146
]L 2 9 , 0 3 1
] 17,701

76,283
84,770
83,163
86,303
103,726
121,497
127,819
114,659

77,457
85,241
83,716
96,696
L04,919
.123,199
126,379
115,028

78,541
85,420
83,701
86,127
L06,008
„1 2 4 , 4 4 2
124,899
115,531

79,055
85,599
83,101
86,218
107,920
128,154
123,975
114,682

79,884
86,220
84,437
86,801
110,370
129,335
L22,792
L14,20S

80,889
86,230
86,139
87,803
110,872
130,988
122,320
114,802

82,073
34,649
85,677
89,350
111,133
131,660
122,015
115,610

82,627
83,982
85,598
90,748
111,492
132,378
121,497
116,517

77,427
8S,144
83,527
86,375
104,884
123,046
126,366
115,073

79,943
86,016
84,559
86,941
109,721
129,492
123,029
114,563

82,688
84,066
83,497
90,669
111,845
132,155
121,573
116,311

78,358
84,798
84,295
87,247
106,076
125,036
123,379
116,363

1969...
1970...
1971...
1972,,,
1973...
1974,,.
1975...
1976,.,
1977...
1978..,

90. RATIO

83,365
83,566
85,216
91,910
112,909
132,426
121,208
116,806

74,173
83,965
83,598
85,002
97,853
118, 4S9
130,546
119,506

CIVILIAN EMPLOYMENT TO TOTAL POPULATION OF WORKING A G E , LABOR FORCE SURVEY 3
(PERCENT)

1947.. .
1948...
1949...
1950...
1951.,,
1952. ..
1933...
1954...
1958...
1956...
1957...

53.91
55,41
54.36
55.69
§5.89
56.15
53.97
54,12
36.27
SS.60

56.00
55,40
54.43
55.68

1958...
1959...
1960...
1961...
1962...
1963...
1964...
1965...
1966...
1967. ,.
1968...
1969...
1970...
1971...
1972...
1973...
1974...
1975...
1976...
1977...
1978...

AVERAGE FOR PERIOD

56.26
54,51
S4.07
56.02
36.10

55.45
55.20
84.36
56.31
55.29
56.22
54.03
54.22
55.88
36.18

56.01
54.88
55.12
55,80
55.26
55.68
54.00
S4.67
56.03
55.81

55,54
54.65
55.16
56.03
55.47
55.25
53.71
54.73
56.18
55.71

56,35
54.24
55.49
55.46
5S.44
55.60
53.57
54.83
56.11
55.83

56.42
54.21
55.40
55.91
55.16
55.50
53.41
55.44
56.04
56.05

55.90
§4.36
56.08
58.71
54.95
85.23
53.55
55.65
56.15
S5.49

55.91
54.49
55.82
55.39
55.57
54,95
S3. 89
55.73
56.18
55,58

55.74
54.14
55.98
55.62
55.16
54.89
53.82
55.72
56.04
55.45

S5.72
S4.80
55.83
55.40
55.68
54.71
S3. 85
55.91
55,83
55.07

55.99
54.60
55.54
S5.97
55.82
53.98
53.59
56.24
55.89
55.25

8S.79
55.34
54.38
55.89
53.68
56.21
54.17
34.14
36.06
SS.96

S5.97
54.59
55.26
55.76
55.39
55.51
53.76
S4.74
56.11
SS.78

56,08
54.35
35.77
55.67
35,23
55,23
33.62
55.61
56.12
55.71

85 82
84 '.51
33.78
55.66
55.55
§4.53
53.75
55.96
85.92
55.26

55.91
54.70
53.30
5S.7S
55.46
55.37
53,82
55.11
56.05
55.68

54.60
54,51
84.86
54.50
34.12
54,01
34.11
54. S3
55.42
3S.69
35.51

54,28
54.29
55.04
84.30
54.43
53.90
54.37
54.57
55.30
55,57
55.83

54.09
54.73
84.19
54.47
54.34
54.07
54,31
54.74
55.27
55.37
55.88

53.96
55.09
85.23
84.02
54.14
54.23
54.71
54.82
55.46
55.64
55.95

54.12
54.97
55.26
54.02
54.33
54.14
54.85
55.07
55.37
55.53
56.27

53.95
55.04
55.29
54.42
54.29
54.08
54.45
54.98
55.52
55.78
56.25

53,92
55.11
55.22
S4.04
54.06
54.21
54.51
55.28
55.52
55.88
56.10

54.10
54.91
54.95
54.18
54.37
54.15
54.49
SS.13
85.66
55.94
55.98

54.18
54.80
55.20
53.87
54.46
54.29
54.50
54.99
55.67
55.92
55.99

54.36
54.86
S4.62
54.13
54.30
54.31
54.43
55.23
55.70
55.99
55.96

14,29
54.43
54.93
54.20
54,00
54.21
54.47
55.19
S5.96
SS.97
56.07

54.29
§5.11
54. S7
54.00
53.99
54,10
54.46
55.38
55.80
S6.1S
56.20

34.32
54, SI
54.70
54.42
54.30
53,99
54,26
54.61
55.33
SS.S4
55.14

54.01
55.03
55.26
54.15
54.25
54.15
54.67
54.96
55.45
55.65
56.16

54.07
54.94
35.12
54.03
54.30
54.22
§4.50
85.13
55.62
55.91
56. 02

54.31
54.82
54.71
54.11
54,10
54.21
54.45
55,27
55.82
56.04
S6.08

S4.18
54.82
34. 9S
54.18
54.24
54.14
54.47
54.99
55.55
55.79
56.00

56,14
56,70
55,63
55,72
56.16
57.34
55,60
53.70

56.47
56. SO
55.39
55,69
56.57
57.38
55.27
55.80

56.41
56.50
55.22
55.98
56.85
57.34
55.13
85,90

56.45
56.48
55.43
55.93
36.81
57.12
55.06
56.08

56.28
56.15
55.45
56.02
56.78
57.16
55,13
86.21

56,54
56.00
55.16
56.07
57.07
57.15
55.05
56.07

56.52
56.11
55.44
56.05
57.06
57.18
55.22
56.23

56.65
55.95
55.50
56.19
56.88
56.98
55.30
56.15

56.57
55.77
S5.48
56.10
56.99
56.92
55.25
56.05

56.62
55.80
55,86
56,04
57.22
S6.79
55.23
56.03

56.61
85.66
55.70
56.19
57.36
56.46
55.21
56.21

§6.68
55.54
55.74
56.39
57.32
56.07
55.26
56.27

56.34
86.57
53.41
35.80
56.33
57.35
55.34
35.30

56.42
56.21
55, 3S
56.01
86.89
57.14
55.08
56,12

56.58
38.94
55.47
56.11
56.98
57.03
35.26
56.14

56.64
58.67
53,67
36.21
87.30
56.44
53,23
56.17

56.49
56,10
SS.47
56.03
56.92
56.99
55.23
56.06

55. as

This scries contains revisions beginning with I960.
with 1973,

102



This series contains revisions beginning with 1974.

3

TMs series contains revisions beginning

(APRIL 1978)

C. Historical Data for Selected Series—Continued
Monthly

Quarterly

Year

Jan.

Feb.

Apr.

Mar.
112.

1947...
1948...
1949...
1950...
1951...
1952...
1953...
1954...
1955...
1956...
1957...

2.58
3.11
-0.38
1.25
6.20
2.65
1.13
-0.70
2.58
4.86
3,60

2.86
-0.71
-0.91
1.04
7.36
0.11
0.60
0.77
1.96
2.05
0.30

1958...
1959...
1960...
1961...
1962...
1963...
1964...
1965...
1966...
1967...
1968...

-4.15
0.85
0.64
-0,23
1.84
0.64
-1.37
9,90
9.14
2.03
6.04

1969...
1970...
1971...
1972...
1973...
1974...
1975...
1976...
1977...
1978...

1958, ,.
1959.,,
1960...
1961,,.
1962...
1963...
1964...
1965...
1966...
1967...
1968...
1969...
1970...
1971...
1972...
1973...
1974...
1975...
1976...
1977...
1978...

June

July

Oct.

Dec.

IQ

IVQ

AVERAGE FOR PERIOD

--10.16
5.04
3.28
0.48

2.44
1.58
-2,09
5.82
1.29
1.65
0,29
-3.59
4.73
3.92
1.36

3.63
-1.50
-0.27
5.16
1.77
3.01
-3.05
2.24
4.53
2.47
-3.43

2.90
0.93
-1.51
3.41
3.43
1.72
-0.08
-0.74
3,80
4.28
1.12

-0.48
-0,19
-0.22
0.68
2.77
1.58
3.49
4.25
10.60
3.96
4.21

-1.18
5,16
-1.84
1.43
3.58
2.10
4.93
12.80
12.23
0.61
7.99

2.17
2.28
1.39
1.00
3.36
3.53
6.95
12.02
5.65
3.94
7.90

1.12
3.23
0,48
0.01
3.80
5.76
2.48
8,05
5.93
4.61
9.89

1.52
1.85
2.54
1. 93
-1.20
1. 46
1.79
0. 78
0.56
3. 65
5.59
9. 10
8.03
5. 32
7,80
10. 06
3.00
5. 52
9.18
5, 74
11. 30 1 3 . 2 6

-3,15
1.29
2.85
0.37
1.91
1.06
0.62
11.30
9.14
4.24
4.05

-2.60
4.89
3.67
-0.62
2.41
1.96
3.75
8,25
9.48
3.61
7.28

0,17
2.42
-0.22
1.04
3.24
2.40
5.12
9.69
9 ,49
2.84
6.70

1.50
2.57
0.25
0.86
2,67
6.82
5 .28
8.64
4.82
6.51
11.48

-1.02
2.79
1.64
0,41
2.56
3.06
3.69
9 .47
8.23
4.30
7.38

6.17
2.15
-7.20
1.10

9.95
7.45
16.03
7,00

12.06
0.12

-18.97

6.65
-8. 00
-0. 95
16. 78
4. 31
8. 62
-6. 22
10. 88

10.70
4.39
1.14
0.91

14.62
3.83
-0.60
2.73
17.84
29.18

9.39
3.24
9.75
6.71
19,45

9.91

11.16
0.20
1.65
6.70
21.00
19.62

-1.28
2.84
2.68
1.74
2.34
1,50
0.07
11.34
8.12
6.83
2.98

-2.09
3.26
2.40
-0.38
2.57
2.48
4.24
7.68
5.24
4.85
14.00

-4.63
5.77
3.58
-0.71
1.78
2.02
3.94
10.96
10.26
1.63
2.09

-1.07
5.63
5.04
-0.78
2.88
1.37
3.06
6.11
12.94
4.34
5.76

14.88
-1.92
-3.97
-8.48

8.88
12.29
5.69
6.52

23,70

50.95

1,04
- 20.14
4.00

16.76
3.70
-8,26
10.31
26.14
52.21

14.09
5.65
6.64
4.72
14.32

19.79
-3.40

8.35
2.80
1.70
4.70
41.00
30.01
- 17.21
- 34.49

13.01
2.15
-0.18
-6.83
13.07
14.92

-14,54
-36.50

- 17.28

4.43

Q

1.96
2.77
-2.79
.91
.27
.83
.27
- .54
.52
.54
3.40

-4.03
0.19
5.24
-0.40
1.56
1.04
3.17
12.67
10.15
3.86
3.14

--17.76
6.04

III

3.56
0.85
-0,90
0.76
6.37
1.40
1,19
-0.09
2.41
5,22
3,15

0,16
-1.42
-0.01
5.56
1.44
1.84
-0.34
2.69
8.74
5.54

20.42

Annual
II Q

4 . 2 7 3.05
-1.31
-1. 32
-0. 79 - 0 , 3 7
6.29
5. 22
2.60
1. DO
1,22
4 . 57
-2. 27 - 4 . 7 2
4,31
2 . 34
4,07
4 . 20
2.35
4 . 09
-4. 75 - 0 , 6 7

1.57
3.84
-3.96
4.52
1.33
2.06
0.37
0.01
5.38
4.15
2.54

22.94
44.54
-11.09
-10.19

2,99
1.46
-2,08
5.26
1.30
0.59
•1.87

29.40

14.17
--14.20

-5.72

20.42

12.02
6.02
21.02
-5.66
7.16

14.21
-5,54
18.56
3.13
8.06
-3.66
9.70

DIFFUSION INDEX OF INDUSTRIAL MATERIALS PRICES--13 INDUSTRIAL MATERIALS 2
(PERCENT RISING OVER 1-MONTH SPANS)

8.86
-4.99
-4.58
13.94
17.00
0.58
-3.47
3.47

38.55

16.95
-13.58
-14.03

-16.53

26.58
-10.32

-8.68

-2.92

-10,65

-3.69
16.43
8.15
5.75
-4.45
8.02

-11.22

-4.40

®
AVERAGE FOR PERIOD

30 ,8
61.5
92,3
23.1
26.9
46.2
76.9
46.2
34.6

23.1
7.7
26.9
65.4
26.9
46.2
34.6
65.4
50.0
30.8

23.1
26.9
57.7
34.6
30.8
46.2
73.1
42.3
50.0
46.2

53,8
19.2
61.5
46.2
23.1
3.8
73.1
65.4
42.3
46.2

53.8
42.3
73.1
30.8
42.3
57.7
46.2
38,5
23.1
42,3

42.3
34.6
76.9
30.8
50.0
46.2
69.2
73.1
26,9
50.0

46.2
53.8
88.5
11.5
42.3
42.3
30.8
76.9
46,2
38.5

50.0
88.5
96.2
26.9
46.2
46.2
42.3
53.8
73.1
42.3

38.5
69.2
92.3
46.2
53.8
30.8
80.8
69.2
73.1
26.9

50.0
23.1
73.1
61.5
34.6
26.9
53.8
38.5
61.5
34.6

69 .2
69 .2
84 .6
50 .0
42 ,3
61 .5
50 .0
84 .6
65 .438 .5

50.0
50,0
80.8
53.8
50.0
50.0
53.8
69.2
50.0
50.0

48.7
64.1
26.9
39.8
51.3
61.5
48.7
37.2

50.0
32.0
70.5
35.9
38.5
35.9
62.8
59.0
30.8
46.2

44.9
70.5
92.3
28,2
47.4
39.8
51.3
66.6
64.1
35,9

56.4
47.4
79.5
55.1
42,3
46.1
52.5
64.1
59.0
41.0

42.9
72.8
45. B
38.8
40.4
54.5
62.8
50.6
40.1

46.2
42.3
65.4
38.5
69.2
53.8
57.7
26.9
69.2
53.8
50.0

38.5
50.0
46.2
73.1
34.6
61,5
50.0
50.0
50.0
34.6
38.5

38.5
73.1
42.3
80.8
46.2
46.2
46.2
73.1
57.7
26.9
57.7

38.5
50,0
50.0
69.2
38.5
50.0
69.2
84.6
50.0
34.6
34.6

61.5
57.7
42.3
57.7
53.8
46,2
26.9
57.7
23.1
34,6
26.9

73.1
57.7
57.7
42.3
30.8
61.5
26.9
46.2
34.6
57.7
42.3

92.3
53.8
46.2
53.8
30,8
34.6
61.5
38.5
34.6
26.9
30.8

76.9
57.7
46.2
76.9
46.2
42.3
73.1
50.0
19.2
50.0
65.4

34.6
65.4
34.6
53.8
50.0
46,2
65.4
53.8
7.7
42.3
65.4

69.2
53.8
23.1
42.3
57.7
73.1
88.5
61.5
26.9
53.8
76.9

88 .5
61 .5
46 .2
26 .9
76 .9
65 .4
69 .2
42 ,3
57 .7
57 .7
76 .9

30.8
53.8
26.9
61.5
34.6
61.5
50.0
61.5
42.3
61.5
53.8

41.1
55.1
51.3
64.1
50.0
53.8
51.3
50.0
59.0
38.4
48.7

57.7
55,1
50.0
56.4
41.0
52.6
41.0
62.8
35.9
42.3
34.6

67.9
59.0
42.3
61.5
42.3
41.0
66.7
47.4
20.5
39.7
53.9

62.8
56.4
32.1
43.6
56.4
66.7
69.2
55.1
42.3
57.7
69.2

57.4
56.4
43.9
56.4
47.4
53.5
57.0
53.8
39.4
44.5
51.6

50.0
57.7
34.6
76.9
84.6
73.1
38.5
65.4

73.1
46.2
61.5
73.1
92.3
73.1
69.2
61.5

53.8
50.0
73.1
84.6
69.2
53.8
30.8
73.1

80.8
50.0
76.9
69.2
65.4
61.5
57.7
65,4

50.0
46.2
38.5
57.7
73.1
34.6
30.8
65.4

69.2
30.8
46.2
53.8
73.1
46.2
46.2
69.2

73.1
30.8
46.2
61.5
69.2
38.5
57.7
73.1

69.2
34.6
61.5
69.2
61.5
34.6
53.8
34.6

50.0
30.8
53.8
57.7
34.6
50.0
57.7
34.6

46.2
34.6
50.0
61.5
42.3
26.9
34.6
50.0

65 .4
42 .3
53 .8
53 .8
73 .1
23 .1
53 .8
61 .5

65.4
42.3
53.8
76.9
73.1
23.1
57.7
65.4

59.0
51.3
56.4
78.2
82.0
66.7
46.2
66.7

66.7
42.3
53.9
60.2
70.5
47.4
44.9
66.7

64.1
32,1
53.8
62,8
55.1
41.0
56.4
47.4

59.0
39 ,7
52.5
64.1
62.8
24.4
48.7
59.0

62.2
41 .4
54 .2
66.3
67,6
44.9
49.0
59.9

967.

DIFFUSION INDEX OF INDUSTRIAL MATERIALS PRICES — 13 INDUSTRIAL MATERIALS 2
{PERCENT RISING OVER 9-MONTH SPANS)

1949...
1950...
1951...
1952...
1953...
1954...
1955...
1956...
1957...

11.5
61.5
92.3
26.9
23.1
46.2
5318
53.8
46.2

11,5
61.5
76.9
19.2
15.4
53,8
69.2
46.2
46.2

19.2
84.6
42.3
26.9
15.4
61.5
73.1
50.0
46.2

3.8
92.3
30.8
23.1
15.4
61.5
69.2
46.2
30.8

0.0
92.3
23.1
23.1
15.4
57.7
76.9
46.2
23.1

46.2
7.7
100.0
23.1
30.8
26.9
61.5
73.1
57.7
23.1

38 .5
23.1
100.0
23,1
30.8
30.8
53.8
76.9
53.8
15.4

53.8
34.6
100.0
15.4
34.6
30.8
61.5
84.6
57.7
15.4

53.8
61.5
100.0
15.4
42.3
38.5
69.2
84.6
53.8
23.1

42.3
61.5
100.0
15.4
46.2
38.5
61.5
84.6
42.3
23.1

1958...
1959...
I960.,,
1961...
1962...
1963...
1964...
1965...
1966...
1967...
1968...

26,9
69.2
53.8
61.5
30.8
65.4
76.9
73.1
53.8
7.7
38.5

34.6
69.2
53.8
61.5
34.6
69.2
76.9
80.8
38.5
19.2
53.8

46.2
61.5
46.2
53.8
30.8
69.2
61.5
61.5
34.6
15.4
30.8

65.4
53.8
30.8
53.8
15.4
61.5
69.2
42.3
38.5
11.5
46.2

50.0
57.7
38.5
69.2
11.5
65.4
76.9
50.0
26.9
19.2
42.3

69,2
76.9
46,2
69.2
19.2
53.8
80.8
50.0
11.5
11.5
61.5

84.6
61.5
34.6
50.0
30.8
53.8
84.6
57.7
11.5
34.6
65.4

76.9
61.5
23.1
53.8
38,5
53.8
76.9
57.7
11.5
30.8
57.7

76.9
61.5
30.8
69.2
34.6
57.7
61,5
50.0
3.8
38,5
80.8

76.9
53.8
38.5
53,8
34.6
53.8
69.2
57.7
3.8
38.5
92.3

1969. ,,

76.9
69.2
46.2
84.6
100.0
69.2
19.2
65.4

76.9
61,5
46.2
84.6
92.3
76.9
15.4
65.4

76.9
34.6
46.2
92.3
92.3
61.5
19.2
80.8

76.9
30.8
46.2
92.3
92.3
61.5
50.0
69.2

76.9
26.9
61.5
84.6
80.8
46.2
42.3
73.1

84.6
34.6
69.2
80.8
80.8
46.2
57.7
65.4

80.8
23.1
53.8
69.2
80.8
38.5
34.6
57.7

76.9
19.2
53.8
61.5
88.5
23.1
50.0
61.5

69.2
26.9
46.2
61,5
88.5
23.1
42,3
76.9

69.2
23.1
53.8
76.9
92.3
23.1
42.3
76.9

1948. . .

1970...
1971...
1972...
1973...
1974...
1975...
1976...
1977...
1978...

Ncw.

3.58
-1.26
0,35
3.97
1.72
3.23
-2.15
-0.42
5.33
0.96
-4.86

0.56
2.77
-2.95
3.67
2.32
1.92
-0.83
-1.93
4.56
4.21
4.60

-11.59

Sept.

2.77
-0.55
-0.23
7.67
1.24
2.29
-1.38
-0.61
3,76
4.32
1.07

1.03
4.33
-2.35
1.04
4.49
0.80
1.69
-1.87
4.40
6.19
1.76

5.23

Aug.

NET CHANGE IN BANK LOANS TO BUSINESSES 1
(ANNUAL RATE, BILLIONS OF DOLLARS)

4.28
1.22
-3.07
1.03
6.00
-0.23
2.94
-0.83
1.60
6.22
3.85

967.
1947...
1948...
1949...
1950...
1951...
1952...
1953...
1954...
1955...
1956...
1957...

May

2i!e

©
AVERAGE FOR P E R I O D

11.5
19 .2
76.9
65 .4
100 .0 1 0 0 . 0
23 .1
30.8
23.1
4 2 .3
46.2
38 ,5
61.5
61 .5
69.2
73 .1
42.3
57 .7
19.2
23 .1
'

69.2
70.5
24.3
18.0
53.8
65.4
50,0
46.2

3.8
94.9
25.7
25.7
19,2
60.2
73.1
50.0
25.7

48 .7
39.7
100,0
18.0
35.9
33.4
61.5
82.0
55.1
18.0

100.0
23.1
37.2
41.1
61.5
75.6
47.4
21.8

31.4
91.0
34.3
30.8
27.9
59.3
74.0
50,6
27.9

14 '.i

67^9

73.1
46 .2
46 .2
53 .8
50 .0
69 .2
76 .9
57 .7
3 .8
38 .5
92 .3

69.2
46.2
53.8
38.5
65.4
80.8
80.8
50.0
3.8
42.3
84.6

35.9
66.6
51.3
58,9
32.1
67.9
71.8
71,8
42.3
14.1
41.0

61.5
62.8
38,5
64.1
15.4
60.2
75.6
47.4
25.6
14.1
50.0

79.5
61.5
29.5
57.7
34,6
55.1
74.3
55.1
8.9
34.6
68,0

73.1
48.7
46.2
48.7
50.0
67.9
75.6
55.1
3.8
39.8
89.7

62.5
59.9
41,4
57.3
33.0
62.8
74.3
57.4
20.2
25.6
62.2

76 .9
38 .5
84 .6
76 .9
84 .6
19 .2
65 .4
73 .1

69.2
46.2
84.6
92.3
76.9
19.2
65.4
69.2

76.9
55.1
46.2
87.2
94.9
69.2
17.9
70.5

79.5
30.8
59.0
85.9
84.6
51.3
50.0
69.2

75.6
23.1
51.3
64.1
85.9
28.2
42.3
65,4

71.8
35.9
74,3
82.0
84.6
20.5
57.7
73.1

75.9
36.2
57.7
79.8
87.5
42.3
42.0
69.6

'This series contains revisions beginning with 1974. 'This series contains revisions beginning with 1948. This series is now based on unadjusted
components.




24 .3

(APRIL 1978)

103

G. Experimental Data and Analyses

Net Contributions of Individual Components to the Leading, Roughly Coincident, and Lagging Composite Indexes
Net contribution to index

Basic data
Series title
(and unit of measure)

LEADING INDICATORS
1, Average workweek, production workers,
manufacturing (hours)
.
3. Layoff rate, manufacturing 1
(per 100 employees)
8. New orders for consumer goods and materials
in 1972 dollars (billion dollars)
32. Vendor performance, companies reporting
slower deliveries (percent)
12. Net business formation
(index: 1967=100)
20. Contracts and orders for plant and equipment
in 1972 dollars (billion dollars)
29. New building permits, private housing
units (index: 1967=100)
36. Change in inventories on hand and on order in
1972 dol . , smoothed2 (ann. rate, bil. dol.) .
92. Change in sensitive prices, smoothed2
(percent)
19. Stock prices, 500 common stocks
(index: 1941-43=10)
104. Change in total liquid assets, smoothed2
(percent)
105. Money supply (Ml) in 1972 dollars
(billion dollars)
910. Composite index of 12 leading indicators 3
(index: 1967^100)
ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
41. Employees on nonagricultural payrolls
(thousands) . . .
51. Personal income less transfers in 1972
dollars (annual rate, billion dollars). . . .
47. Industrial production, total
(index: 1967=100)
57. Manufacturing and trade sales in 1972
dollars (million dollars)
920. Composite index of 4 roughly coincident
indicators 3 (index: 1967=100)
LAGGING INDICATORS
91. Average duration of unemployment1
(weeks)
70. Manufacturing and trade inventories, total,
in 1972 dollars (billion dollars)
62. Labor cost per unit of output, manufacturing
(index: 1967=100)
109. Average prime rate charged by banks
(percent)
72. Commercial and industrial loans outstanding
(milliondollars) . .
95. Ratio, consumer installment debt to
personal income (percent)
930. Composite index of 6 lagging indicators 9
(index: 1967=000)

Dec.
1977

Feb.
1978

Jan.
1978

40.5

39.6

Dec.
to
Jan.
1978

Mar.
1978

r40.0

p40.5

Jan.
to
Feb.
1978

Feb.
to
Mar.
1978

-0.68

0.30

0.45

0.09

0.0

0.0

1.0

0.9

0.9

pO.9

r35.92

r35.81

r36.98

p36.80

-0.01

0.15

-0.03

56

55

64

67

-0.03

0.31

0.12

rl34.8

rl34.9

6135.6

NA

0.01

0.07

NA

rl3.40

rl3.00

ri4.42

p!3.40

-0.08

0.27

-0.22

156.1

128.9

130.2

144.1

-0.59

0.03

0.38

r 9.85

rll.74

p9.85

WA

0.11

-0.11

rl.02

rl.60

rl.64

1.23

0.26

0.02

-0.22

93.82

90.25

88.98

88.82

-0.23

-0.08

-0.01

ri.10

rl.03

rO.92

pO«81

-0.21

-0.32

-0.39

226.8

226.8

225.2

p224.0

0.0

-0,33

-0.30

135.2

rl33.5

rl34.2

p!34.1

-1.26

0.52

-0.07

83,429

r83,719

r84,055

p84,498

0.28

0.32

0.56

981.1

r972.3

971.4

6978.8

-0.41

-0.04

0.45

r!39.7

rl38.6

rl39.0

p!41.0

-0.21

0.08

0.51

146,406

rl40,370

p!44,174

NA

-0.93

0.59

NA

rl32.7

rl33.8

p!35.6

-1.41

0.83

1.35

13.8

13.1

12.5

12.3

0.30

0.27

0.14

236.47

r237.44

P237.96

NA

0.18

0.10

rl59.4

rl63.2

rl65.0

p!66.1

0.73

0,34

0.30

0.41

0.16

0.0

0.43

134.6

7.75

7.93

8.00

8.00

rl25,487

r!26,481

r!28,539

p!30,299

0.17

0.35

12.98

13.11

P13.22

NA

0.41

0.35

132.6

r!35.3

rl37.3

P138.3

2.04

1.48

HA

NA

NA
0.73

NOTE: The net contribution of an individual component is that component's share in the composite movement of the group. It
is computed by dividing the standardized and weighted change for the component by the sum of the weights for the available components and dividing that result by the index standardization factor. See the 1977 HANDBOOK Of CYCLICAL INDICATORS (pp. 74-75)
for weights and standardization factors. NA, not available, p, preliminary, r, revised, e, estimated.
series is inverted in computing the composite index; i.e., a decrease in this series is considered an upward movement.
This series is a weighted 4-term moving average (with weights 1,2,2,1) placed at the terminal month of the span.
figures in the net contribution columns are percent changes in the index. The percent change is equal (except for rounding
differences) to the sum of the individual components1 contributions plus the trend adjustment factor. The trend adjustment
factor for the leading index is 0.170; for the coincident index, -0.158; for the lagging index, -0.153.
2

104



G. Experimental Data and Analyses—Continued
Recovery Comparisons: Current and Selected Historical Patterns
8. New orders for consumer goods
and materials, 1972 dollars,
smoothed 1

Deviations
from
ref.
peak
Percent

Actual
data
for
current
cycle

MONTHS DEVIFROM ATIONS CURRENT MONTH
REF.
FROM ACTUAL
AND
TROUGH 11/73
DATA YEAR
SERIES
8l
BIL. DOL

+20

23
24

-1.7
-1.2

35.20
35.40

2/77
3/77

+15

25
26
27
28

-1.1
-2.3
-2.9
-2.3

35.44
35.02
34.79
35.00

4/77
5/77
6/77
7/77

29
30
31
32

-2.1
-0.9
-0.7

35.05
35.49
35.59
35.83

8/77
9/77
10/77
11/77

+10
+5

0
• 35

-5

0.0

New orders for consumer goods
and materials, 1972 dollars,
smoothed 1
(TIT

Deviations
from
spec,
trough

Actual
data
for
current
cycle

Percent

+45

• 38
+40

+35

• 36

+30

33
0.1
35.86 12/77
34
1.2
36.24
1/78
35
2.0
36.53
2/78
MONTHS DEVIFROM ATIONS CURRENT MONTH
SPEC.
AND
FROM ACTUAL
TROUGH
3/75
DATA YEAR

• 34+25

+20

• 32

1

SERIES
8
BIL. DOL.

-10
-15

• 30

-20
-J -25

20. Contracts and orders for plant
and equipment, 1972 dollars,
smoothed 1

35.20
35.40

2/77
3/77

25
26
27
28

32.2
30.7
29.8
30.6

35.44
35.02
34.79
35.00

4/77
5/77
6/77
7/77

29
30
31
32

30.8
32.4
32.8
33.7

35.05
35.49
35.59
35.83

8/77
9/77
10/77
11/77

mi

33
34
35

Percent

+30
• 17

+25

MONTHS
FROM
REF.
TROUGH

+15
• 15

+10
+5

0

• 13
-5

• 11
-20

-30
-12 -6

0. +6 +12 +18+24+30+36
Months from reference troughs

+5

20. Contracts and orders for plant
and equipment, 1972 dollars,
smoothed 1
Percent

+50

•lo

+45

-13.8
-12.3

11.51
11.72

2/77
3/77

25
26
27
28

-10.1
-8.8
-9.5
-9.1

12.02
12,18
12.10
12.15

4/77
5/77
6/77
7/77

29
30
31
32

-8.6
-9.7
-7.8
-5.6

12.21
12.06
12.32
12.62

8/77
9/77
10/77
11/77

33
34
35

-6.0
-1.1

12.56
13.22
13.55

12/77
1/78
2/78

+25

MONTHS DEVIFROM ATIONS CURRENT MONTH
AND
SPEC.
FROM ACTUAL
3/75
DATA YEAR
TROUGH

+20

1.4

•as

0

23
24

•is

-15

-25

33.8
35.86 12/77
36.24
1/78
35.2
36.53
2/78
36.3
DEVIATIONS CURRENT MONTH
FROM ACTUAL
AND
11/73
DATA YEAR

• 30
+10

SERIES 20 *
BIL. DOL

+20

-10

+15

31.3
32.1

23
24

+40
+35

• 13

+30

SERIES 20 *
BIL. DOL.
23
24

20.3
22.5

11.51
11.72

2/77
3/77

25
26
27
28

25.6
27.3
26.4
27.0

12.02
12.18
12.10
12.15

4/77
5/77
6/77
7/77

29
30
31
32

27.6
26.1
28.8
31.9

12.21
12.06
12.32
12.62

8/77
9/77
10/77
11/77

33
34
35

31.2
38.1
41.6

12.56
13.22
13.55

12/77
1/78
2/78

•9

-12 -6

0 +6 +12 +18 +24 +30 +36

Months from specific troughs

NOTE:

For an explanation of these charts, see "How to Read Charts" on p. 104 of the January 1978 issue.
series is an MCD moving average placed on the center month of the span. Specific trough dates used, however, are those for the actual monthly series.
Numeral indicates latest month used in computing the series.

l
This
2




105

G. Experimental Data and Analyses—Continued

Recovery Comparisons: Current and Selected Historical Patterns
36. Net change in inventories on
hand and on order, smoothed 1 -I +30

fun

MONTHS
PROM
REP.
TROUGH

i

+20

+10

CURRENT MONTH
AND
ACTUAL
DATA iTEAR

23
24

SERIES 36
ANN, RATE
BIL. DDL.
7.24
2/77
11.78
3/77

25
26
27
28

12.56
11.56
12.36
12.65

4/77
5/77
6/77
7/77

29
30
31
32

14.54
15.84
14.54
12,18

8/77
9/77
10/77
11/77

33
34
35

9.85
11.74
9.85

12/77
1/78
2/78

36. Net change in inventories on
hand and on order, smoothed1

+50

+40

-10

MONTHS DEVIFROM ATIONS CURRENT MONTH
SPEC.
FROM ACTUAL
AND
TROUGH
DATA YEAR
4/75

-20
22
23
24

1954

-30

25
26

92. Change in sensitive prices,
smoothed l
|LJT1

+30
0-10

SERIES 36
ANN. RAT -^
BIL. DOL
7.24
2/77
44.63
11.78
49.17
3/77
49.95
12.56
4/77

28

48.95
49.75
50.04
51.93

11.56
12.36
12.65
14.54

5/77
6/77
7/77
8/77

29
30
31
32

53.23
51.93
49.57
47,24

15.84
14.54
12.18
9.85

9/77
10/77
11/77
12/77

33
34

49.13
47.24

11,74
9,85

1/78
2/78

27

-I -40

•0

MONTHS
FROM
RBF.
TROUGH

+20

+10

92. Change in 1 sensitive prices,
smoothed

un

CURRENT MONTH
AND
ACTUAL
DATA YEAR

Actual

+7

+6

SCRIES 92
PERCENT

44
24

1.11

3/77

25
26
27

2.01
1.46
0.38
-0.05

4/77
5/77
6/77
7/77

29
30
31
32

-0.02

8/77

33
34
35
36

0.25
0.48

9/77
10/77

0.64

11/77

1.02
1.60
1.64
1.23

12/77
1/78
2/78
3/78

+5

+4

+3

MONTHS DEVIFROM ATIONS CURRENT MONTH
SPEC.
FROM ACTUAL
AND
TROUGH
DATA YEAR
2/75

• 4-1

SERIES 92
PERCENT

-2
-12-6

0 +6 +12+18+24+30+36
Months from reference troughs

+2

25
26
27
28

3.42
2.87
1.79

1.11
2.01
1.46
0.38

3/77
4/77
5/77
6/77

29
30
31
32

1.36
1.39
1.66
1.89

-0.05
-0.02
0,25
0.48

7/77
8/77
9/77
10/77

33
34
35
36

2.05
2.43
3.01
3.05

0.64
1.02
1.60
1.64

11/77
12/77
1/78
2/78

37

2.64

1.23

2.52

•0

+1

-12 -6

3/78

NOTE: Foie an explanation of these charts, see "How to Read Charts" on p. 104 of the January 1978 issue.
*Th1s series is a weighted 4-term moving average (with weights 1,2,2,1) placed on the terminal month of the span.

106



0 +6 +12+18 +24+30+36
Months from specific troughs

G. Experimental Data and Analyses—Continued
Recovery Comparisons: Current and Selected Historical Patterns
QRTRS. DEVIFROM ATIONS CURRENT QRTR.
REF.
FROM ACTUAL
AND
TROUGH
DATA YEAR
IV/73

6

• uoo

+10
• 1350

+5

•1300

SERIESJ
50
JWN. RATE
EJIL. DOL.
3.3 1283.7 HI/76

7

3.6

1287.4

IV/76

8

5.5

1311.0

1/77
11/77

9

7.1

1330.7

10

8.4

1347.4 HI/77

11

9.5

1360.2

IV/77

12

9.3

1358.3

1/78

+15

QRTRS. DEVIFROM ATIONS CURRENT QRTR.
SPEC.
FROM ACTUAL
AND
TROUGH
1/75
DATA YEAR

6

• 1250

50. GNP in 1972 dollars

• 1350

• 1300

+10

SERIES; so
t^NN. RATE
E IL. DOL.
9.7 1283.7 HI/76

7

10.1

1287.4

IV/76

8

12.1

1311.0

1/77

9

13.8

1330.7

11/77

10

15.2

1347.4 HI/77

11

16.3

1360.2

IV/77

12

16.1

1358.3

1/78

• 1250

+5

-•1200

-5

QRTRS .
FROM
REF.
TROUGH

30. Change in business inventories,
1972 dollars

CURRENT QRTR.
AND
ACTUAL
DATA YEAR

6

SERIES 30
A N N . RATE
BIL. DOL.
13.8 H I / 7 6

7

-1.8

IV/76

8

9.7

1/77

13.2

11/77

• 1200

30. Change in business inventories,
1972dollars
Q
+45

+40

+15

+10

+5

-"-20
-12 -6

11

8.7

IV/77

12

11.3

1/78

QRTRS. DEVIFROM ATIONS CURRENT QRTR.
SPEC.
FROM ACTUAL
AND
TROUGH
1/75
DATA YEAR

6

SERIES 30
A N N . RATE
B I L . DOL.
33.8
13.8 HI/76

7

18.2

-1.8

IV/76

8

29.7

9.7

1/77

9

33.2

13.2

II/77

10

35.7

15.7

HI/77

11

28.7

12

31.3

8.7
11.3

+30

• +10

+25

• +5

+20

•o

+15

»-5

+10

•-lo

+5

-15

IV/77
1/78

0+6^+12+18 +24+30 +36+42
Months from reference troughs

NOTE:

+35

15.7 H I / 7 7

10

0

•+20

-12 -6

0 +6 +12 +18 +24 +30 +36 +42
Months from specific troughs

For an explanation of these charts, see "How to Read Charts" on p. 104 of the January 1978 issue.




107

G. Experimental Data and Analyses—Continued
Recovery Comparisons: Current and Selected Historical Patterns
MONTHS
DEVIFROM ATIONS CURRENT MONTH
REP,
AND
FROM ACTUAL
TROUGH
DATA YEAR
11/73

74. Industrial production,
nondurable manufactures

SERIES 74
1967=100

+12

• H5

24

8.8

147.0

3/77

25
26
27
28

8.8
9.9
9.8
10.0

147.0
148,5
148.4
148.6

4/77
5/77
6/77
7/77

29
30
31
32

10.6
10.7
10.7
11.1

149.4
149,5
149.6
150.1

S/77
9/77
10/77
11/77

33
34
35
36

11.7
10.9
11.5
12.7

150.9
149.8
150.6
152.2

12/77
1/78
2/78
3/78

74. Industrial production,
nondurable manufactures
X"Q

• ISO

+25

+20

• HO

+15

MONTHS DEVIFROM ATIONS CURRENT MONTH
AND
SPEC.
FROM ACTUAL
3/75
P&TA YEAR
TROUGH

3JO
+10

SERIES 74
1967^100

-4

• 125

73. Industrial production, durable
manufactures

24

26.6

147,0

3/77

25
26
2?
28

26.6
27.9
27.8
28.0

147.0
148.5
148.4
148.6

4/77
5/77
6/77
7/77

29
30
31
32

28.7
28.8
28.9
29.3

149.4
149.5
149.6
150.1

8/77
9/77
10/77
11/77

33
34
35
36

30.0
29.0
29.7
31.1 -

150.9
149.8
150.6
152.2

12/77
1/78
2/78
3/78

+5

73. Industrial production, durable
manufactures
Percent

MONTHS DEVIFROM ATIONS CURRENT MO NTS
REP.
FROM ACTUAL
AND
TROUGH
DATA YEAR
11/73

+35
lUO

SERIES 73
1967=100

-

+4 •us

o
_

_4

•las

+30

24

-2.3

126.8

3/77

25
26
27
28

-1.4
-0.4
0.5
1.4

128.0
129.3
130.5
131.6

4/77
5/77
6/77
7/77

29
30
31
32

1.2
1.5
2.0
2.2

13l'.3

131.7
132.4
132.7

8/77
9/77
10/77
11/77

33
34
35
36

2.8
0.8
1.6
3.5

133.4
130.9
131.9
134.3

12/77
1/78
2/78
3/78

• 135

+25

+20

+15

MONTHS DEVIFROM ATIONS CURRENT MONT3
SPEC.
FROM ACTUAL
AND
TROUGH
3/75
DATA YEAR
SERIES
73
1967=100

12

24

21.1

126.8

3/77

16

25
26
27
28

22.3
23.5
24.6
25.7

128.0
129.3
130.5
131.6

4/77
5/77
6/77
7/77

29
30
31
32

25.4
25.8
26.5
26.7

131,3
131.7
132.4
132.7

8/77
9/77
10/77
11/77

33
34
35
36

27,4
25.0
26.0
28.3

133.4
130.9
131.9
134.3

12/77
1/78

-1 -20
-12 -6

0 +6 +12 +18 +24 +30 +36

Months from reference troughs
NOTE:

• 105

2/78
3/78

For an explanation of these charts, see "How to Read Charts" on p. 104 of the January 1978 issue.

108



-12 -6

0 +6 +12+18+24+30+36
Months from specific troughs

• 1.30

nag

• 3,20

+10

•115

+5

• no

ALPHABETICAL INDEX-SERIES FINDING GUIDE
Series titles
(See complete titles in "Titles and Sources of
Series," following this index)

Current issue
(page numbers)

Series
number

Charts

Tables

Historical
Series
data
descriptions
(issue date) (issue date)

A
Accession rate manufacturing
Agricultural products, exports
Anticipations and intentions
Business expenditures, new plant and equipment
Business expenditures, new plant and equipment, Dl . .
Consumer sentiment index
Employees manufacturing and trade, Dl
Inventories manufacturing and trade Dl
New orders, manufacturing, Dl . . . .
Prices selling manufacturing Dl
Prices, selling, retail trade, Dt
Prices selling wholesale trade Dl
Profits net manufacturing and trade Dl
Sales, net, manufacturing and trade, Dl
Automobiles
Expenditures personal consumption
Imports of automobiles and parts

2
604

17
55

60
90

1/78
6/77

8/68

61
970
58
974
975
971
976
978
977
972
973

25
39
23
39
39
39
' 39
39
39
39
39

66
75
64
75
75
75
75
75
75
75
75

8/77
8/77
1/77
8/77
8/77
8/77
8/77
8/77
8/77
8/77
8/77

11/68
11/68*
11/68*
11/68*
11/68*
11/68*
11/68*
11/68*
11/68*
11/68*
11/68*

55
616

23
55

64
90

10/77
6/77

10/69*

B
Balance of payments-See International transactions.
Bank loans to businesses, net change
Bank rates-See Interest rates.
Bank reserves
Free reserves
Member bank borrowing from Federal Reserve
Bonds-See Interest rates.
Borrowing-See Credit.
Budget-See Government.
Building-See Construction.
Business equipment, industrial production
Business expenditures, new plant and equipment
Business expenditures, new plant and equipment, Dl
Business failures, current liabilities
Business formation
Business incorporations
Business inventories-See Inventories.
Business loans-See Bank loans.
Business saving

72
112

16,36
33

72
71

4/78
4/78

11/72
11/72

93
94

34
34

71
71

6/77
2/78

11/72

29
76
61
970
14
12
13

14,26
25*
25
39
34
13 24
24

66
66
66
75
71
64
64

8/77
2/78
8/77
8/77
12/77
12/76
1/77

295

47

81

12/77

21
21
21

63
63
63

1/78
1/78
1/78

25
25
38

65
65
74

1/78
1/78
12/77

12
30
30

59
69
69

7/77
10/77
10/77

4/69
li/68
11/68*

C
Canada-See International comparisons.
Capacity utilization
Manufacturing (BEA)
83
Manufacturing (FRB)
82
Materials
..
84
Capital appropriations, manufacturing
Backlog
97
11
Newly approved
Newly approved 01
965
Capital investment-See Investment, capital.
Capital investment commitments Cl
914
Cashflow corporate constant dollars
35
Cash flow corporate current dollars
34
Civilian labor force-See also Employment.
Employment
442
Employment as percent of population
s
90
Total .
.
441
Unemployed
37
Coincident indicators, four
Composite index
920
Composite index rate of change
920c
Diffusion index
951
Ratio to lagging indicators, composite index
940
Commercial and industrial buildings, contracts awarded . . 9
Commercial and industrial loans outstanding
72
Commercial and industrial loans outstanding, net change .
112
Compensation
Compensation, average hourly, all employees,
nonfarm business sector
345
Compensation, average hourly, all employees,
nonfarm business sector percent changes
345c
280
Compensation of employees
Compensation of employees, percent of national
64
income
Compensation, real average hourly, all employees,
346
nonfarm business sector
Compensation, reai average hourly, all employees,
nonfarm business sector percent changes
346c
Earnings, average hourly, production workers,
340
private nonfarm economy
Earnings, average hourly, production workers,
private nonfarm economy, percent changes
340c
Earnings, real average hourly, production
341
workers private nonfarm economy
Earnings, real average hourly, production
341c
workers, private nonfarm economy, percent changes ,
348
Wage and benefit decisions first year
349
Wage and benefit decisions life of contract
Wages and salaries, mining, manufacturing, and
construction
53

1/72*
1/72

52
19
52
19,52

88
61
88
61,88

3/78
4/78
3/78
3/78

4/72*

11
40
37
12
24
16,36
33

59

7/77
7/77
2/78
7/77
1/78
4/78
4/78

11/75*

73*"
59
65
72
71

ii/72'
11/72

50

86

6/76*

10/72*

4/72*
4/72*

51
46

86
81

6/76*
11/77

10/72*
10/69

31,48

69,82

10/77

10/69*

' 50

87

6/76*

10/72*

51

87

6/76*

10/72*

50

86

10/77

6/72*

51

86

10/77

6/72*

50

86

10/77

6/72*

51
51
51

86
87
87

10/77
8/77
8/77

6/72*
6/72*
6/72*

20

62

1/78

Series titles
(See complete titles in "Titles and Sources of
Series," following this index)

Current issue
(page numbers)

Series
number

Charts

Composite indexes
Coincident indicators
920
Four coincides
920c
Four coinciders rate of change
940
Ratio to lagging indicator index
Lagging indicators
930
Six (aggers
930c
Six laagers rate of change
Leading indicators ...
914
Capital investment commitments
915
Inventory investment and purchasing
913
Marginal employment adjustments
917
Money and financial flows
916
Profitability
910
Twelve leaders
Twelve leaders, rate of change
9!0c
Construction
Building permits new private housing
29
Contracts awarded, commercial and industrial bldgs. . . 9
Expenditures, plus machinery and equipment sales
69
Gross private domestic fixed investment
N on residential as percent of GNP
248
Nonresidential structures, constant dollars
87
Nonresidential total constant dollars
86
Residential as percent of GNP
249
Residential, total, constant dollars
89
28
Consumer finished goods-See Wholesale prices.
Consumer goods and materials, new orders
8
Consumer goods, industrial production
75
Consumer installment debt
Debt outstanding
66
113
Net change
95
Ratio to personal income
Consumer installment loans, delinquency rate
39
Consumer prices-See also International comparisons.
320
All items index
All items percent changes
320c
Food, index
322
Food percent changes
322c
Consumer sentiment, index
58
Consumption expenditures -See Personal consumption
expenditures.
Contracts and orders, plant and equipment, constant dol. .
20
Contracts and orders, plant and equipment, current dol. . . 10
116
Corporate bond yields
.. .
Corporate profits-See Profits.
Costs-See Labor costs and Price indexes.
Credit
112
Bank loans to businesses, net change
Borrowing total private
110
Commercial and industrial loans outstanding
72
Consumer installment debt
Debt outstanding
66
Net change
113
Ratio to personal income
95
Consumer installment loans delinquency rate
39
Mortgage debt net change
.
33
Crude materials-See Wholesale prices.

Tables

11
40
12

59

11
40

Historical
Series
descriptions
data
(issue date) [issue date)

7/77
7/77
7/77

11/75*

59

7/77
7/77

11/75*

12
12
12
12
12
11
40

59
59
59
59
59
59

7/77
7/77
7/77
7/77
7/77
7/77
7/77

14,26
24
25

66
65
66

8/77
1/78
8/77

4/69

48
26
26
48
26
26

82
66
66
82
66
66

11/77
10/77
10/77
11/77
10/77
4/77

10/69*

13,22
23

63
64

4/77
2/78

36
33
16,36
34

72
71
72
71

12/77
12/77
1/78
12/77

10/72
10/72

50
50,58
50
50
23

83,93
83,93
83
83
64

3/77
3/77
3/77
3/77
1/77

5/69*
5/69*
5/69*
5/69*
11/68*

13,24
24
35

65
65
72

8/77
8/77
9/77

9/68 '
7/64

33
33
16,36

71
71
72

4/78
10/77
4/78

11/72
7/64
11/72

36
33
16,36
34
33

72
71
72
71
70

12/77
12/77
1/78
12/77
4/77

10/72
10/72

525
564
548
516

54
54
54
54

89
89
89
89

3/78
10/77
1/78
3/78

39
32

34
13,22

71
63

12/77
1/78

11/72
12/74

970
965
951
974
963
967

39
38
37
39
37
38

8/77
12/77
2/78
8/77
2/78
4/78

11/68*

966

38

962
975
952
950
964

37
39
37
37
38

971
968
976
978
977
969
972
973
961

39
38
39
39
39
38
39
39
37

75
74
73
75
73
74
78
74
77
73
75
73
73
74
76
75
74
75
75
75
74
75
75
73
76

59

5/75*

9/68*

10/69*
6/72*

li/72

li/72

D
Debt-See Credit.
Defense
Military prime contract awards
National defense purchases
New orders, defense products
Obligations incurred total
..%... .
Deficit-See Government.
Deflators-See Price indexes.
Delinquency rate consumer installment loans
Deliveries vendor performance
Diffusion indexes
Business expenditures, new plant and equipment
Capital appropriations manufacturing
Coincidsnt indicators
Employees manufacturing and trade
Employees on private nonagriculturat payrolls
Industrial materials prices
Industrial materials prices, components
Industrial production ...
Industrial production components
Initial claims, State unemployment insurance
Inventories manufacturing and trade
Lagging indicators
Leading indicators
New orders durable goods industries
New orders, durable goods industries components ....
New orders, manufacturing
Prices 500 common stocks
.
Prices selling manufacturing
Prices selling retail trade
. .
Prices selling wholesale trade
Profits manufacturing
Profits net manufacturing and trade
Sales net manufacturing and trade
Workweek mfg production workers
Workweek mfg production workers components
Disposable personal income-See Income.

,

i6/69*

11/68*
4/69*

12/77
9/77*
8/77
2/78
2/78
2/78

6/69*
11/68*

8/77*
6/77
8/77
8/77
8/77
5/7?
8/77
8/77
2/78

ii/68*
5/69*
11/68*
11/68*
11/68*
11/68*
11/68*

NOTE: The following abbreviations are used in this index: Cl, composite index; Dl, diffusion index; GPDI, gross private domestic investment; and NIPA, national income and product accounts.
*The identification number for this series has been changed since the publication date shown.




109

ALPHABETICAL INDEX-SERIES FINDING GUIDE-Continued
Series titles
(Seo complete titles in "Titles and Sources of
Series," following this index)

Current issue
(page numbers)

Series
number

Charts

Tables

Historical
Series
data descriptions
(issue date (issue date)

E
Earnings-See Compensation,
Employment and unemployment
Accession rote, manufacturing
Civilian labor force total
Employee hours in no nagri cultural
fstablishmcnts
,
Employee hours in nonagrieuttural
establishments rate of change
Employees in mining, mfg., and construction
Employees, manufacturing and trade 01
Employees on nonagricultural payrolls
Employees on private nonag payrolls 01
Employment, ratio to population
Employment, total civilian
...
....
Help-wanted advertising in newspapers
Help-wanted advertising, ratio to unemployment
Initial claims, State unemployment insurance
Initial claims, State unemployment insurance, 01
Layoff rato, manufacturing ....
Marginal employment adjustments Cl
Overtime hours mffj production workers
Participation rate, both sexes, 16-13 years old
Participation rate, females 20 years and over
Participation rate, males 20 years and over
Port -time workers for economic reasons
Persons engaged in nonagricultural aetivitios .
Quit rate, manufacturing
Unemployed, both sexes, 18*19 years old ....
Unemployed, females 20 years and over
Unemployed, full-time workers
Unemployed, males 20 years and over
Unemployment average duration .
Unemployment rate 1 6 weeks and over
Unemployment rats, insured, average weekly
Unemployment rate, total
Unemployment, total civilian ....
Workweek, mfg production workers
Workweek, mfg. production workers, components
Workweek, mfg. production workers, 01
Equipment-See Investment, capital.
Exports-See Foreign trade and International transactions.

2
441

17
52

60
88

1/78
3/78

48

18

60

3/78

48e
40
974
41
963
90
442
46
60
5
962
3
913
21
453
452
451
448
42
4
446
445
447
444
91
44
43
43
37
1

40
18
39
15,18
37
19
52
18
18
17
37
13,17
12
17
52
52
52
52
18
17
52
52
52
52
16,19
19
19
19
19,52
13,17

961

3?""

61 '"
75
61
73
61
88
60
60
60
73
60
59
60
88
88
88
88
61
60
88
88
88
88
61
61
61
61
61,88
60
76
73

3/78
1/78
8/77
1/78
2/78
4/78
3/78
n/77
4/78
n/77
9/77
1/78
7/77
1/78
3/78
3/78
3/78
3/78
3/78
1/78
3/78
3/78
3/78
3/78
3/78
3/78
n/77
3/78
3/78
1/78

Gross business product
Fixsd weighted pries index
Fixed weighted pries index percent changes .......
Gross domestic product labor cost per unit
Gross
national product
8/68
G NP constant dollars
.
..
4/72*
GNP constant dollars differences
GNP constant dollars, percent changes
8/68*
GNP current dollars
8/68*
GNP current dollars differences
GNP current dollars percent changes
11/68*
GNP ratio to mon§y supply
.
...
....
8/68
Goods output in constant dollars
Implicit price deflator
Implicit price deflator, percent changes
4/72*
P@r capita GNP constant dollars
12/74
Gross private domestic invest.-Sse Investment, capital.

6/69'
6/69*
8/68*

12/74

4/72"

119

35

71

9/77

34
41
12

71
79
59

2/78
7/77

311
311e

49
49

83
83

10/77
10/77

887
622
618
602
604
256
252
668
606
620
612
616
267
253
669
614
255
250
251

56
56
56
55
55
45
45
56
55
56
55
55
45
45
56
55
45
45
48

91
91
91
90
90
81
81
91
90
91
90
90
81
81
91
90
81
81
82

8/77
8/77
8/77
6/77
6/77

6/69
4/72

4/72*
8/68

93

34

71

8/77
6/77
8/77
6/77
6/77

11/77
11/77
8/77
6/77

11/77
11/77
11/77
6/77

G
Goods output in constant dollars
Government budget, NIPA
Federal expenditures
Federal receipts
,
,
Federal surplus or deficit . ,
,
StotG and local expenditures
State and local receipts , ,
State and local surplus or deficit
Surplus or deficit, total
Government purchases of goods and services
Federal, constant dollars
Federal, current dollars
Federal, percent of GNP
National defense
State and local, constant dollars
State and local, current dollars
State and local, percent of GNP
Total constant dollars
Total, current dollars

,

11/73

11/77

11/77
11/77

49

21

62

10/77

502
501
500
512
511
510
298

53
53
53
53
53
53
47

89
89
89
89
89
89
82

10/77
10/77
10/77
10/77
10/77
10/77

263
262
265
564
267
266
268
261
260

44
44
48
54
44
44
48
44
44

80
80
82
89
80
80
82
80
80

11/77
11/77
11/77
10/77
11/77
11/77
11/77

n/77

11/77
11/77

Charts




10/77
10/77
10/77

7/68 '

11/77
11/77
11/77

10/69*
10/69*
10/69*

68

49
49
31

50

20,41

£0e
200
200b
200e
107
49
310
31 Oc
217

40
41

32
21
49
49
41

62,79
79
79
79
79
! 79
i 70
62
03
83
79

48
iiO

18
18

60
60

21
1

17
13,17

1/78
1/78

8/68

961

37

60
60
76
73

28
29
B3
249

26
14,26
26
48

66
86
66
B2

4/77
8/77

6/72
4/69

10/77
11/77

10/69*

310
310c

49
49

83
83

10/77
10/77

10/69*
10/69*

345

50

as

6/76*

10/72*

345c

86
81
69,82

6/76*

280
84

SI
46
31,48

10/72*
10/69
10/69*

346

50

87

6/76*

10/72*
10/72*

311
311c

83
83
69

n/77

11/77
11/77
10/77
10/7?
10/77
10/77

n/77

10/69
10/69
10/69
10/69*
10/69*

10/69

H
Help-wanted advertising in newspapers
...
Help-wanted advertising, ratio to unemployment
Hours of production workers, manufacturing
Average weekly overtime
...
....
Average workweek
Average workweek, components
Average workweek D 1
Housing
Housing starts
,
Housing units authorized by local bldg permits
Residential GPQI constant dollars
Residential GPDI percent of GNP

5/69*
5/69*

5/69"
5/69*
5/69*
5/69*

Implicit price deflator GNP
Implicit price deflator GNP percent changes
Imports-See Foreign trade and International transactions.
Income
Compensation, average hourly, all employees,
nonfarm business sector
Compensation, average hourly, all employees,
nonfarm business sector percent changes .
Compensation of employees
Compensation of employees, pet. of nat'l. income
Compensation, real average hourly, all employees,
nonfsrm business sector
Compensation, real average hourly, all employees,
nonfarm business sector, percent changes
Consumer installment debt, ratio to personal income . .
Corporate profits with IVA and CCA
Corp. profits with IVA and CCA, pet. of nat'l. income .
Disposable personal income constant dollars
Disposable personal income, current dollars
Disposable personal income, per capita, constant dol. . .
Earnings, average hourly, production workers,
private nonfarm tconomy
Earnings, average hourly, production workers,
private nonfarm economy percent changes
Earnings, real average hourly, production
workers private nonfarm economy
Earnings, real average hourly, production
workers, private nonfarm economy, percent changes .
Income on foreign investment in the U S
Income on U S investments abroad
Interest net

National income
Personal income, constant dollars
Personal income current dollars
Personal income, less transfers, constant dollars
Personal income, less transfers, constant dols. rate of chg.
Personal income ratio to money supply
5/69"
Proprietors' income with IVA and CCA
10/69*
Proprietors' income with IVA and CCA, percent
of national income .
...
....
11/72
Rental income of persons with CCA
Rental income of persons with CCA, pet. of nat'l. income
Wage and benefit decisions, first year
Wags and benefit decisions life of contract
Wages and salaries, mining, mfg., and construction
Incorporations new businesses
7/68*
Industrial materials prices
7/68*
Industrial materials pricss components
7/68*
Industrial materials prices 01
Industrial production • SOB also International comparisons.
Business equipment
Consumer goods
10/69
Durable manufactures
Nondurable manufactures
11/73
Total
10/69
Total components
10/69*
Total DI
10/69*
Total rat@ of change
11/73
Installment debt-See Credit.
10/69
Insured unemployment
10/69*
Avg. weekly initial claims, unemploy. insurance
Avg. weekly initial claims, unemploy. insurance, 01 ...
16/69
Avg weekly insured unemployment rate

5/69"
5/69*

346c

n/77

12/74

4/78

12/74

11/77
10/77

95
286
287
225
224
227

51
16,36
46
48
41
41
41

87
72
81
82
79
79
79

6/76*

n/77
11/77
11/77

10/69
10/69*
10/69
10/69
10/69

340

50

86

10/77

6/72*

34Qe

§1

86

10/77

6/72*

10/77

6/72*

10/77

6/72*
S/69*
5/69*

341

50

86

341 c
652
651
288
283
220
52
223
51
Sic
108
282

SI
56
56
46
48
46
20
41
IS, 20
40
32
46

86
91
91
81
82
81
62
62
62

283
284
285
348
349
53
13
23

48
46
48
51
SI
20
24
29

82
81
82
87
87

967

38

76
75
73
74
47

2S
23
21
21
15,21,57

966
47c

38
40

5
962
45

17
37
19

NOTE: The following abbreviations aro used in this index: Cl, composite index; DI, diffusion index; GPQI, gross private domestic investment; and NIPA, national income and product accounts.
*Tho identification number for this series has been changed since the publication date shown.

110

Tobies

Historical Sorifis
data descriptions
(issuo date (issun date)

4/72*

2/78'

94
213
917

Current issun
Ipp numbm's)

Series
mmter

1

F
Federal funds rate
Federal Government-See Government.
Federal Reserve, member bank borrowing from
Final soles in constant dollars
Financial flows, and money, Cl
Fixed In vestment -Sea Investment, capital.
Fixed weighted price index NIPA
Fixed weighted price index, percent changes, NIPA
Peed »SBO Consumer prices.
Foreign trade-See also International transactions.
Balance on goods and services
Balance on merchandise trade
Exports, merchandise, adjusted, exe. military
Exports, merchandise, total exe. military aid
Exports of agricultural products
Exports of goods and services, constant del., NIPA
Exports of goods and services, current do!., NIPA
Exports of goods and services, @xe. military
Exports of nonelectrical machinery ,
Imports, merchandise, adjusted, exe. military
,
Imports, merchandise total
Imports of automobiles and parts
Imports of goods and services, constant do!., NIPA ....
Imports of goods and services, current do!., NIPA
Imports of goods and services total
Imports of petroleum and products
Not exports, goods and services, constant dal., NIPA
Net exports, goods and services, current do!., NIPA . ..
Net exports, goods and services, percent of GNP, NIPA
France-See International comparisons.
Free reserves

Series titles
(See complete titles in "Titles and Sources of
Series," following this index)

70"'
81

64
68
78
74
66
64
62
62
62,92
77
74

60
73
61

1/78
n/77
n/77

8/77
3/77
n/77
n/77

n/77
9/77
9/77
9/77
n/77
9/77

10/69
10/69*
10/69
7/68*

n/77

10/69

11/77
11/77

10/69*

n/77
8/77
8/77
1/78
1/77
1/78

4/78*

10/69
10/69*
6/72*
6/72*
4/69*
4/69*

tin
2/78
2/78
2/78

12/77

11/68

12/77
Mill

n/77
9/77

n/77

6/69

6/69*
6/69

ALPHABETICAL INDEX-SERIES FINDING GUIDE-Continued
Series titles
(See complete titles in "Titles and Sources of
Series," following this index)

Interest net
Interest, net, percent of national income ....
....
Interest rates
Bank rates on short-term business loans
Corporate bond yields
Federal funds rate
Mortgage yields secondary market .
Municipal bond yields
Prime rate charged by banks
'. . . , .
Treasury bill rate
Treasury bond yields .
Intermediate materials-See Wholesale prices.
International comparisons
Consumer prices
Canada index
Canada, percent changes
France index
France, percent changes
Italy index
Italy percent changes
Japan index
Japan percent changes
United Kingdom index
United Kingdom percent changes
United States index
United States, percent changes
West Germany index
West Germany percent changes
Industrial production
Canada
France
Italy
Japan
OECO European countries
United Kingdom
United States
West Germany
Stock prices
Canada
France
Italy
Japan
..
..
United Kingdom
United States
West Germany
.
....
International transactions-See also Foreign trade.
Balance on goods and services
Balance on merchandise trade
Exports merchandise adjusted, exc military
Exports, merchandise, total exc. military aid
Exports of agricultural products
Exports of goods and services exc military
Exports of nonelectrical machinery . , , .
Imports, merchandise, adjusted, exc. military
Imports merchandise total
Imports of automobiles and parts
Imports of goodsand services total
Imports of petroleum and products
Income on foreign investments in U S
Income on U.S investments abroad
Inventories
Business inventories change constant dollars
Business inventories change current dollars
Business inventories change, percent of GNP
Finished goods manufacturers'
Inventories on hand and on order net change
• •• Inventories to sales ratio, mfg. arid trade (deflated)
Inventory investment and purchasing Cl
Manufacturing and trade constant dollars
Manufacturing and trade, current dollars ............
Manufacturing and trade, current dollars, change
Manufacturing and trade Dl
Materials and supplies on hand and on order, mfg
Materials and supplies on hand and on order, mfg..
Investment, capital
Capital appropriations, manufacturing, backlog
'
Capital appropriations manufacturing new
Capital appropriations, manufacturing, new, 01 ...'...
Capital investment commitments Cl
Construction contracts, commercial and industrial
Construction expenditures, business and machinery
and equipment sales
Gross private domestic investment
Fixed investment constant dollars

Charts

Tables

Historical
Series
data
descriptions
(issue date) (issue date)

288
289

46
48

81
82

12/77
12/77

67
116
119
118
117
109
114
115

36
35
35
35
35
36
35
35

72
72
71
72
72
72
71
72

5/77
9/77
9/77
9/77
9/77
9/77
9/77
9/77

10/69
10/69*

12/74
7/64

11/73
7/64
7/64

11/73

Series titles
(See complete titles in "Titles and Sources of
Series," following this index)

Plant and equipment
Business expenditures new
Business expenditures, new, 01
Contracts and orders constant dollars
Contracts and orders current dollars
Investment, foreign
Income on foreign investments in U S
Income on US investments abroad
Italy-See international comparisons.

7/64
7/64

Current issue
(page numbers)

Series
number

Tables

Charts

Historical Series
data descriptions
(issue date) (issue date)

n/68

61
970
20
10

25
39
13,24
24

66
75
65
65

8/77
8/77
8/77
8/77

9/68*

652
651

56
56

91
91

8/77
8/77

5/69*
5/69*

68
62
63
17

31
16,31
31
30

69
69
69
69

930
930c
952
3

11
40
37
13,17

59

910
950
14
104

11
40
37
34
14,32

73
71
70

913
78

12
28

59
67

7/77
2/78

38

27

67

5/77

8
84

13,22
21

63
63

4/77
1/78

11/68*

J
Japan-See International comparisons.

94
94
93
93
94
94
93
93
93
93

50,58

83,93
83,93

58*"

93
93

6/77
6/77
6/77
6/77
6/77
6/77
6/77
6/77
6/77
6/77
3/77
3/77
6/77
6/77

723
726
727
728
721
722
47
725

57
57
57
57
57
57

92
92
92
92
92
92

7/77
7/77
7/77
7/77
7/77
7/77

15,21,57

62,92

12/77

57

92

7/77

743
746
747
748
742
19
745

58
58
58
58
58
58
58

94
94
94
94
94
94
94

1/78
1/78
1/78
1/78
1/78
1/78
1/78

667
622
618
602
604
668
606
620
612
616
669
614
652
651

56
56
56
55
55
56
55
56
55
55
56
55
56
56

91
91
91
90
90
91
90
91
90
90
91
90
91
91

8/77
8/77
8/77
6/77
6/77
8/77
6/77
8/77
6/77
6/77
8/77
6/77
8/77
8/77

30
245
247
65
36
77
915
70
71
31
975
78

27,43

67,80

43
48
28
14,27
28
12
16,28
28
27
39
28

80
82
67
67
67
59
67
67
67
75
67

10/77
11/77
11/77

38

27

67

5/77

97
11
965
914
9

25
25
38
12
24

65
65
74
59
65

1/78
1/78

69

25

66

8/77

243
242

43
43

80
80

11/77
11/77

87
241
240

26
48
26
26
48
26
43
43

66
82
66
66
82
66
80
80

10/77
11/77
10/77
10/77
11/77
10/77
11/77
11/77

27

24

65

4/77

24

24

65

4/77

733
733c
736
736c
737
737c
738
738c
732
732c
320
320c
735
735c

58
58
58
58
58'"

50

2/78
3/78
5/77
7/77
5/77
2/78
2/78
8/77
2/78

12/77
7/77
1/78

9/72*

L

9/72*

Labor cost per unit of gross domestic product
Labor cost per unit of output manufacturing . . ......
Labor cost per unit of output, private business sector
Labor cost price per unit of manufacturing
Labor force-See Employment and unemployment.
Lagging indicators, six
Composite index
Composite index rate of change
.
Diffusion index
Layoff rate manufacturing
Leading indicators, twelve
Composite index
..
Composite index rate of change
.....
Diffusion index
.. ..
Liabilities of business failures
Liquid assets change in total
Loans-See Credit.

9/72*
9/72*
9/72*
5/69*
5/69*
9/72*
10/72*
10/72*
10/72*
10/72*

M
11/68
Man-hours-See
Employment
and unemployment.
10/72*
Marginal employment adjustments Cl
Materials and supplies on hand and on order, mfg
Materials and supplies on hand and on order, mfg.
change
Materials, crude and intermediate-See Wholesale prices.
Materials, industrial-See Price indexes.
Materials, new orders for consumer goods and
Materials rate of capacity utilization .......'
Merchandise trade-See Foreign trade.
Military-See Defense.
Money and financial flows Cl
5/69* Money supply
5/69*
Liquid assets change in total
Money supply Ml
.
.
. . .
5/69*
Money supply M1 percent changes
Money supply M2 ........;............:;;.'....
5/69*
Money supply M2, percent changes
.'
5/69*
Ratio GNP to money supply Ml
Ratio personal income to money supply M2 . .'..,..
..
..,..'..'..'...
5/69* Mortgage debt net change
Mortage yields secondary market
.
5/69* Municipal bond yields
5/69*
N

910c

10/77

7/68

9/77
9/77

11/68
10/72
11/68

7/77

11/75*

Mil

Till
73"'

60
59

2/78
1/78
7/77
7/77
2/78

8/68*
5/75*

12/77
12/77

10/72*

917

12

59

7/77

104
105
85
106
102
107
108
33
118
117

14,32
14,32
32
32
32
32
32
33
35
35

70
70
70
70
70
70
70
70
72
72

12/77

10/69 National defense-See Defense.
10/69* National Government-See Government.
National income-See Income.
New orders, manufacturers'
27
Capital goods industries, nondefense, constant dol
Capital goods industries, nondefense, current dol
24
Consumer goods and materials, constant dollars
8
Contracts and orders, plant and equip., constant dol. . . 20
2/69*
Contracts and orders, plant and equip., current dol. . . . 10
2/69
548
Defense products
."',.."..
11/68*
7
Durable goods industries, constant dollars ......;;;..
6
Durable goods industries current dollars
Components
''
'
Diffusion index
. . .
964
971
New orders manufacturing Dl
Nonresidential fixed investment, GPDI
88
Producers' durable equipment, constant dollars
87
Structures constant dollars .....;.
..'.;.'..:..

5/77
5/77
5/77
5/77

10/72
10/72

10/77
9/77
4/77
9/77
9/77

7/64
7/64

9/68

Total, constant dollars .

.:.;;;.::.:

...;..'

Total percent of GNP .,...'.:.'..' i ...'..'.'..'......

4/77
4/77
4/77
8/77
8/77
1/78
5/77
5/77

38
39

65
65
63
65
65
89
63
63
76
74
75

8/77

il/68*

86
248

26
26
26
48

66
66
66
82

10/77
10/77
10/77
11/77

10/69*

516
721

54
57

89
92

3/78
7/77

49
62
358
370

21
16,31
51
51
51
21
21
21
17

62
69
87
87
87
63
63
63
60

24
24
13,22
13,24
24
54
22
22

9/68

9/68*
9/68*

2/78*

9/68*

0

Inventories, business, change in-See Inventories.
Nonresidential total constant dollars
86
248
Nonresidential total percent of GNP
Producers' durable equip., nonresid., constant dot. . . ' 88
89
Residential total constant dollars
249
Residential total percent of GNP
Total constant dollars
Total current dollars
New orders, capital goods, nondefense, constant
dollars
:
New orders, capital goods, nondefense, current
dollars

Current issue
(page numbers)

Series
number

Obligations incurred Defense Department
OECD European countries industrial production
Orders-See New orders and Unfilled orders.
10/69* Output-See also Gross national product and
Industrial production.
Goods output, constant dollars ...:.;..;..;...'.' ; . .
Labor cost per unit of
10/69*
Per hour nonfarm business sector
Per hour private business sector ...'.. '.
;.;.'.'..
10/69
Per hour, private business sector, percent changes
Ratio to capacity manufacturing (BEA)
Ratio to capacity, manufacturing (FRB)
Ratio to capacity materials
.......... '. . . . .
9/68
Overtime hours, production workers, manufacturing

370c

83
82
84
21

10/77
9/77

11/68

6/76*
6/76*
6/76*

6/68*
10/72*
10/72*

1/78
1/78
1/78
1/78

12/74

NOTE: The following abbreviations are used in this index: Cl, composite index; Dl, diffusion index; GPDI, gross private domestic investment; and N1PA, nationaal income and product accounts.
*The identification number for this series has been changed since the publication date shown.




111

ALPHABETICAL INDEX-SERIES FINDING QUIDE-Continued
Slides titlRS
(See complete titles in "Tifeand Sources of
Stories," f ollowint) this; index)

Current issue
(page numbers)

Series
number

Charts

Tables

Historical
Series
data descriptions
(issue date! (issue date)

P

RiSBfVPS fl"B§

Participation rates, civilian labor force
Both stsxcs 1 6-1 9 years of op
Fomslos ?0 y63f§ find over
Personal Gonsumpticjn « x pen di urns
Automobiles
Ouratolo (pods constant dollars
. . .
OuraWfi ipods current dullurs
Nondurable qoocfs, constant dollars
Nondurable goods current dollars
Services constant dollars
. . .
Ssrvirps current dollars
Total Constant dollars
Total rurront dollars
Total percent of GWP
Personal income- -See Income.
Personal Stivinti
l\!fs()fial sovinf] rote
Petroleum and products imports
Plant and equipment- -See also Investment, capital.
Business oxpendituros for
Business oxpenditues for PI
Contracts and orders for current dollars
Population civilian employment as percent of
Priee indexes
Consumer prices- -See also International comparisons.
All itofns index
All items percent changes
Pood, index
Fowl pprcpflt chantjcs
Deflators NIPA
Fixed weighted, gross business product, index
Fixed weighted, gross business product, pet. changes
Implicit prico deflator GNP index
Implicit price deflator, GNP, percent changes ...
Industrial materials
industrial materials comporti'iits
Industrial materials DI
Labor cost, price per unit of
Sensitive prices chaiwin
Stock prices-See also International comparisons.
800 common stocks
BOO common stocks, Dl . . .
Wholesale prices
All eornrrtoditiRs index
All commodities, percent change
Consumer finished goods index
Consumer finished goods, percent changes . ...
Crude materials, index ...
..
.
Crude materials, percent changes . .
Intermediate materials, index
Intermediate materials, percent changes
Producer finished ooods index
Producer finished goods, percent changes
Prico to unit labor cost manufacturing
Prices, selling
Manufacturing Dl
Retail trade 01
Wholesale trade, Dl
Prime contracts military . . . .
Prime rate charged by banks
Producer finished goods-See Wholesale prices.
Producers' durable equipment, nonresid,, OPDI
Production-See Industrial production and GWP.
Productivity
Output per hour nonfarm business sector
Output per hour private business sector
Output per hour, private business sector, pet. changes .
Profitability Cl
Prof i is
Corporate, after taxes, constant dollars
Corporate, after taxes, current dollars
Corporate, after taxes, with IVA and CCA,
constant dollar
Corporate, after taxes, with 1 VA and CCA, cur. ctol, . . ,
Corporate, with IVA and CCA
Corporate, with IVA and CCA, pet. of not'l. income . . .
Manufacturing and trade 01 .
Maniifaeturinfj 01
Per dollar of sales manufacturing
Profitability Cl
Ratio, profits to corporate domestic income
Ratio, profits with IVA and CCA to corporate domestic
incomo
Proprietors' incomo with IVA and CCA
Proprietors' income with IVA and CCA, pet. of nat'l, inc. .

....

....

—

34
£6
48

71
66
82

59
54

23
23

64
64

213

41

79

11/77

69
57
58
973
77
59
54

2§
IS, 23
23
39
28
23
23

66
64
64

a/??

67
64
64

12/76
2/78
8/77
S/77
10/76
2/78

295
298
290
292
293

47
47
47
47
47

81
82
81
81
82

12/77
12/77
12/77
12/77
12/77

92

14,29

68

3/78

19
968
. 78

14,29
38
28

68
74
67

12/77
6/77
2/78

38

27

67

5/77

114
115

35
35

71
72

9/77
9/77

7/64
7/64

16,19
IS
17
3?
13,17

61
60
60
73
60

3/78
4/78
12/77
9/77
1/78

6/69*
6/69*
8/68*

88
88
88
61,88
60

3/78
3/78
3/78
3/78
3/78
1/78

19
19
19

61
61
61

3/78
12/77
3/78

22
22

63
63

tin

107
108
32

32
32
13,22

70
70
63

330
330c
334
334c
331
33k
332
332e
333
333c
92
1

49
49
49
49
49
49
49
49
49
49
14,29
13,17

84
84
85
85
84
84
85
85
85
85
68

88
88
88

3/78
3/78
3/78

55
233
232
238
236
239
237
231
230
235

23
42
42
42
42
42
42
42
42
48

64
79
79
80
80
80
80
79
79
82

10/77
11/77
11/77
11/77
11/77
11/77
11/77
11/77
11/77
11/77

10/69*

292
293
814

47
47
55

81
82
90

12/77
12/77

10/69
7/68*

61
970
20
10
30

25
39
13,24
24
19

66
75
65
65
61

8/77
8/77
3/77
8/77
4/78

320
32Qe
322
322e

50
50,58
50
50

83,93
83,93
83
83

3/77
3/77
3/77
3/77

311

10/69*
10/69*

967
17
32

38
30
14,29

83
83
83
83
68
78
74
69
68

10/77
10/77
10/77
10/77

23

49
49
49
49
29

19
968

14,29
38

68
74

330
330e
334
334e
331
331 c
332
332c
333
333c
17

49
49
49
49
49
49
49
49
49
49
30

84
84
85
85
84
84
85
85
85
85
69

376
978
977
525
109

39
39
39
54
36

75
75
75
89
72

8/77
8/77
8/77
3/78
9/77

88

26

66

10/77

358
370
370c
916

51
51
51
12

87
87
87
59

6/76*
6/76*
6/76*
7/77

Unemployment
Duration of unemployment, average
91
Help-wanted advertising to unemployment, ratio
60
5
Initial claims, avg. weekly, unemploy. insurance
Initial claims, avg. weekly, unemploy, insurance, D 1 . . . 962
3
Layoff rats manufacturing
Number unemployed, civilian labor force
Both sexes 16-19 years of age
,.
446
445
Females 20 years and over
447
Full-time
workers
11/68
Males 20 years and over
444
Total unemployed
37
11/68*
4
Quit rate, manufacturing
11/68*
Unemployment rates
11/68*
44
1 5 weeks and over
Insured, average weekly
45
11/73
Total
43
Unfilled orders, manufacturers'
96
Durable goods industries
Durable goods industries, change in
25
United Kingdom-See International comparisons.
6/68*
10/72*
10/72*
V

18
16

29
29

68
63

10/77
10/77

1/72
7/68

80
79
286
287
972
969
15
916
22

29
29
46
48
39
38
30
12
30

68
68
81
82
75
74
69
59
68

10/77
10/77
12/77
12/77

81
282
283

30
46
48

69
81
82

10/77
11/77
11/77

4

17

60

1/78

46

81

11/77

48

82

12/77

311e

310
310e

284
285

f

id/69

S

10/69

Salaries-Sea Compensation.
Sales
Final sales, constant dollars
Machinery and equipment sales and business
construction expenditures
Manufacturing and trade sales, constant dollars
Manufacturing and trade sales, current dollars
Manufacturing and trade sales, DI
Ratio, inventories to sales, mfg. and trade
Retail sales, constant dollars
Retail sales current dollars
Saving
Business saving
Government surplus or deficit
Gross saving private and rjovernment
Personal saving
Personal saving rate
Selling prices-See Prices, selling.
Sensitive prices, change in
State and local government-See Government.
Stock prices~S0fl also International comparisons.
500 common stocks
SCO common stocks, D I
Stocks of materials and supplies on hand and on order . .
Stocks of materials and supplies on hand and on order,
chaniji
, .
.
Surplus-Sea Government.

10/69
10/69
10/69
10/69*

6/77

11/68
11/68*
9/68'

5/69*
5/69*
5/69*
5/69*

1/78

4/69

4/78
9/77
3/78

4/69*
11/68

12/77

5/69

6/77

5/69*

3/77
3/77
3/77
3/77
3/77
3/77
3/77
3/77
3/77
3/77
9/77

6/69*

8/77
5/77
1/78
7/77

10/77

id/69
10/69*
11/68*




n

6/77

11/72

10/77
11/77

10/69*

10/76
2/78

6/7*2*

9/68*
2/69

11/68*
6/72*
i6/69
10/69
10/69
7/68*

5/69

5/69*

T
Treasury bill rate
Treasury bond yields

U

Velocity of money
GNP to money supply Ml, ratio
Personal income to money supply M2, ratio
Vendor performance

....

52
52
§2
52
19,52
17

as

5/77

4/72*
4/72
6/69
4/72
9/68
9/68

10/77
9/77
1/78

12/74

W

Wages and salaries-See Compensation.
3/69" West Germany-See International comparisons.
Wholesale prices
All eomnnoditifis index
7/68*
All commodities percent changes
Consumer finished goods, index
Consumer finished goods, percent changes
i6/69
Crude
materials index
10/69*
Crude materials, percent changes
Intermediate materials index
Intermediate materials percent changes
Producer finished goods, index
Producer finished goods percent changes
Sensitive prices change in
Workweek of production workers, manufacturing
10/69 Workweek of production workers, manufacturing,
components
10/69* Workweek of production workers, manufacturing, Dl . , , .

961

NOTE: The following abbreviations are used in this index: Cl, composite index; D I, diffusion index; GPOl, gross private domestic investment; and NIPA, national income and product accounts.
*T1m identification number for this series has been changed since the publication date shown.

112

Tables

Historical Series
dato descriptions
{issue date (issue date)

93
39
249

52
52
52

R
Rental income of persons with CCA ....
Rental income of persons, with CCA, percent of notional
incomo

Charts

•

Residential fixed investment, constant dollars, GPOl
Residential fixed investment percent of GNP
Residential structures-See Housing.
Retail sales, constant dollars
Retail sales current dollars
..

Current issue
(page numbers)

Series
number

403
452
451

Q
Quit rate, manufacturing

Series titles
(See complete titles in "Titles and Sources of
Series," following this index)

37

go

3/77
3/77
3/77
3/77
3/77
3/77
3/77
3/77
3/77
3/77
3/78
1/78

76
73

2/78*

6/69*

8/68*

TITLES AND SOURCES OF SERIES
Series are listed below according to the sections of this report
in which they appear. Series numbers are for identification
only and do not reflect relationships or order among the
series. "M" following a series title indicates monthly data;
"Q" indicates quarterly data. Data apply to the whole period
except when indicated by "EOM" (end of month) or "EOQ"
(end of quarter).

5. Average weekly initial claims for unemployment insurance, State programs (M).—U.S. Department of
Labor, Employment Training Administration; seasonal
adjustment by Bureau of Economic Analysis (17,60)

To save space, the commonly used sources listed below are
referred to by number:

7. Value of manufacturers' new orders, durable goods industries, in 1972 dollars (M).-Sources 1, 2, and
3
(22,63)

Source 1—U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of
Economic Analysis; Source 2—U.S. Department of Commerce,
Bureau of the Census; Source 3—U.S. Department of Labor,
Bureau of Labor Statistics; Source 4—Board of Governors of
the Federal Reserve System.
Following the source for each series is an indication of the
pages on which that series appears. The "Series Finding
Guide" also lists chart and table page numbers for each
series.

I-A. Composite Indexes
910. Composite index of twelve leading indicators (includes
series 1, 3, 8, 12, 19, 20, 29, 32, 36, 92, 104, 105)
(M).-Source 1
(11,40,59)
913. Composite index of marginal employment adjustments
(includes series 1, 2, 3, 5) (M).-Source 1 (12,59)
914. Composite index of capital investment commitments
(includes series 12, 20, 29) (M).-Source 1 (12,59)
915. Composite index of inventory investment and purchasing (includes series 8, 32, 36, 92) (M).-Source
1
(12,59)
916. Composite index of profitability (includes series 17,19,
80) (M).-Source 1
(12,59)
917. Composite index of money and financial flows (includes
series 104, 105, 110) (M).-Source 1
(12,59)
920. Composite index of four roughly coincident indicators
(includes series 41, 47, 51, 57) (M).-Source
1
(11,40,59)
930. Composite index of six lagging indicators (includes
series 62, 70, 72, 91, 95, 109) (M).-Source
1
(1140,59)
940. Ratio, coincident composite index (series 920) to lagging composite index (series 930) (M).—Source 1(12,59)

6. Value of manufacturers' new orders, durable goods industries, in current dollars (M).-Source 2 (22,63,76)

8. Value of manufacturers' new orders for consumer goods
and materials in 1972 dollars (M).—Sources 1, 2, and
3
(13,22,63)
9. Construction contracts awarded for commercial and industrial buildings, floor space (M).-McGraw-Hill Information Systems Company; seasonal adjustment by
Bureau of Economic Analysis and National Bureau of
Economic Research, Inc. (Used by permission. This
series may not be reproduced without written permission from the source.).
(24,65)
10. Contracts and orders for plant and equipment in
current dollars (M).-Source 2 and McGraw-Hill Information Systems Company; seasonal adjustment by
Bureau of the Census and Bureau of Economic
Analysis
(24,65)
11. Newly approved capital appropriations, 1,000 manufacturing corporations (Q).-The Conference Board. (Used
by permission. This series may not be reproduced
without written permission from the source.) (25,65)
12. Index of net business formation (M).-Source 1;
seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic Analysis
and National Bureau of Economic Research,
Inc.
(13,24,64)
13. Number of new business incorporations (M).—Dun &
Bradstreet, Inc.; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of
Economic Analysis and National Bureau of Economic
Research, Inc.
(24,64)

1. Average workweek of production workers, manufacturing (M).-Source 3
(13,17,60,76)
2. Accession rate, manufacturing (M).—Source 3 (17,60)




(17,60)

24. Value of manufacturers' new orders, capital goods industries, nondefense, in current dollars (M),-Source
2
(24,65)
25. Change in manufacturers' unfilled orders, durable goods
industries (M).-Source 2
(22,63)
27. Value of manufacturers' new orders, capital goods industries, nondefense, in 1972 dollars (M).- Sources 1,
2 t and 3
(24,65)
28. New private housing units started, total (M).—Source
2
(26,66)
29. Index of new private housing units authorized by local
building permits (M).-Source 2
(14,26,66)
30. Gross private domestic investment, change in business
inventories, all industries, in 1972 dollars (Q).—Source
1
(27,43,67,80)
31. Change in book value of manufacturing and trade inventories, total (M).-Sources 1 and 2
(27,67)
32. Vendor performance, percent of companies reporting
slower deliveries (M),-Purchasing Management Association of Chicago
(13,22,63)
33. Net change in mortgage debt held by financial institutions and life insurance companies (M).—American
Council of Life Insurance; Federal National Mortgage Association; U.S. Department of Housing and Urban
Development, Government National Mortgage Association; National Association of Mutual Savings Banks; U.S.
Savings and Loan League; and source 4; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic Analysis
(33,70)

34. Net cash flow, corporate, in current dollars (Q).—
Source 1
(30,69)

15. Profits (after taxes) per dollar of sales, all manufacturing corporations (Q).—Federal Trade Commission and
Securities and Exchange Commission; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic Analysis
(30,69)

35. Net cash flow, corporate, in 1972 dollars (Q).- Source
1
(30,69)

16. Corporate profits after taxes in current dollars (Q).—
Source 1
(29,68)
17. Index of price per unit of labor cost, manufacturingratio, index of wholesale prices of manufactured goods
(unadjusted) to seasonally adjusted index of compensation of employees in manufacturing (sum of wages,
salaries, and supplements to wages and salaries) per
unit of output (M).-Sources 1, 3, and 4
(30,69)

19. Index of stock prices, 500 common stocks (M).Standard & Poor's Corporation
(14,29,58,68,94)
20. Contracts and orders for plant and equipment in 1972
dollars (M).—Sources 1, 2, 3, and McGraw-Hill Information Systems Company
(13,24,65)

3. Layoff rate, manufacturing (M).-Source 3 (13,17,60)
4. Quit rate, manufacturing (M).-Source 3

23. Index of industrial materials prices (M), Source
3
(29,68,78)

14. Current liabilities of business failures (M).-Dun &
Bradstreet, Inc.
(34,71)

18. Corporate profits after taxes in 1972 dollars (Q).Source 1
(29,68)

I-B. Cyclical Indicators

22. Ratio of profits (after taxes) to total corporate domestic
income (Q).-Source 1
(30,68)

21. Average weekly overtime hours of production workers,
manufacturing (M).-Source 3
(17,60)

36. Net change in inventories on hand and on order in 1972
dollars (smoothed) (M).-Sources 1, 2, and 3(14,27,67)
37. Number of persons unemployed, labor force survey
(M).-Sources 2 and 3
(19,52,61,88)
38. Change in stocks of materials and supplies on hand and
on order, manufacturing (M).—Source 2
(27,67)
39. Percent of consumer installment loans delinquent 30
days and over (EOM).—American Bankers Association
(34,71)
40. Number of employees in nonagricultural goodsproducing industries—mining, manufacturing, and construction (M).-Source 3
(18,61)
41. Number of employees on nonagricultural payrolls, establishment survey (M).-Source 3
(15,18,61)
42. Number of persons engaged in nonagricultural activities,
labor force survey (M).—Sources 2 and 3
(18,61)
43. Unemployment rate, total (M).-Sources 2 and 3(19,61)

113

TITLES AND SOURCES OF SERIES- Continued
44. Unemployment rate, 15 weeks and over (M).-Sources 2
and 3
(19,61)
45. Average weekly insured unemployment rate, State
programs (M).—U.S. Department of Labor, Employment
Training Administration
(19,61)
46. Index of help-wanted advertising in newspapers (M) The Conference Board
(18,60)
47. Index of industrial production, total (M). Source
4
(15,21,40,57,62,77,92)
48. Employee-hours
(M).-Souree 3

in nonagriculturat establishments
(18,40,60)

49. Value of goods output in 1972 dollars (Q)-Source
1
(21,62)
50. Gross national product in 1972 dollars (QV Source
1
(20,40,41,62,79)
51. Personal income, less transfer payments, in 1972
dollars (M).-Souree 1
(15,20,40,62)
52. Personal income, total, in 1972 dollars (M), Source

1

(20,62)

53. Wage and salary income in mining, manufacturing, and
construction in 1972 dollars (M).—Sources 1 and

66. Consumer installment debt (EOM).-Source 4; FRB
seasonally adjusted net change added to seasonally adjusted figure for previous month to obtain current
figure
(36,72)
67. Bank rates on short-term business loans
Source 4

(Q).(36,72)

68. Labor cost (current dollars) per unit of gross domestic
product (1972 dollars), nonfinancial corporations—ratio
of current-dollar compensation of employees to real
gross corporate product (Q).—Source 1
(31,69)
69. Manufacturers' machinery and equipment sales and
business construction expenditures (industrial and commercial construction put in place) (M).-Source
2
(25,66)
70. Manufacturing and trade inventories, total book value,
in 1972 dollars (EOM).-Sources 1, 2, and 3(16,28,67)
71. Manufacturing and trade inventories, total book value,
in current dollars (EOM).-Sources 1 and 2 (28,67)
72. Commercial and industrial loans outstanding, weekly
reporting large commercial banks (M).—Source 4;
seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic
Analysis
(16,36,72)

87. Gross private domestic fixed investment, nonresidential
structures, in 1972 dollars (Q).^Source 1 (26,66)
88. Gross private domestic fixed investment, nonresidential
producers' durable equipment, in 1972 dollars (Q). Source 1
(26,66)
89. Gross private domestic fixed investment, total residential, in 1972 dollars (Q).-Source 1
(26,66)
90. Ratio, civilian employment to total population of working age (M).-Sources 1, 2, and 3
(19,61)
91. Average (mean) duration of unemployment in weeks
(M).-Sources 2 and 3
(16,19,61)
92. Change in sensitive prices (WPI of crude materials excluding foods, feeds, and fibers) (smoothed) (M),
Sources 1 and 3
(14,29,68)
93. Free reserves (member banks excess reserves minus
borrowings) {M).-Source 4
(34,71)
94. Member bank borrowings from the Federal Reserve
(M).-Source 4
(34,71)
95. Ratio, consumer installment debt to personal income
(EOM),-Sources 1 and 4
(16,36,72)

73. Index of industrial production, durable manufactures
(M).-Source 4
(21,62)

96. Manufacturers' unfilled orders, durable goods industries
(EOM).-Source 2
(22,63)

(23,64)

74. Index of industrial production, nondurable manufactures (M).-Source 4
(21,62)

55. Personal consumption expenditures, automobiles (Q).
Source 1
(23,64)

75. Index of industrial production, consumer goods (M).Source 4
(23,64)

97. Backlog of capital appropriations, manufacturing
(EOQ).—The Conference Board. (Used by permission.
This series may not be reproduced without written per
mission from the source.)
(25,65)

56. Manufacturing and trade sales in current dollars (M). Sources 1 and 2
(23,64)

76. Index of industrial production, business equipment
(M).-Source 4
(25,66)

57. Manufacturing and trade sales in 1972 dollars (M).Sources 1, 2, and 3
(15,23,64)

77. Ratio, constant-dollar inventories (series 70) to sales
(series 57), manufacturing and trade, total (EOM).
Sources 1, 2, and 3
(28,67)

3

(20,62)

54. Sales of retail stores in current dollars (M). Source

2

58. Index of consumer sentiment (Q). University of
Michigan, Survey Research Center
(23,64)
59. Sales of retail stores in 1972 dollars (M).- Sources 1
and 3
(23,64)
60. Ratio, help-wanted advertising in newspapers (series
46) to number of persons unemployed (series 37)
(M).-Sources 1, 2, 3, and The Conference
Board
(18,60)
61. Business expenditures for new plant and equipment,
total (Q).-Source 1
(25,66)
62. Index of labor cost per unit of output, total
manufacturing—ratio, index of compensation of
employees in manufacturing (sum of wages, salaries,
and supplements to wages and salaries) to index of industrial production, manufacturing (M),—Sources 1 and

4

(16,31,69)

63. Index of unit labor cost, private business sector (Q).
Source 3
(31,69)
64. Compensation of employees as a percent of national income (Q).-Source 1
(31,48,69,82)
65. Manufacturers' inventories of finished goods, book
value, all manufacturing industries (EOM). Source
2
(28,67)

114



78. Stocks of materials and supplies on hand and on order,
manufacturing (EOM).-Source 2
(28,67)
79. Corporate profits after taxes with inventory valuation
and capital consumption adjustments in current dollars
(Q).-Source 1
(29,68)
80. Corporate profits after taxes with inventory valuation
and capital consumption adjustments in 1972 dollars
(Q).-Source 1
(29,68)
81. Ratio of profits (after taxes) with inventory valuation
and capital consumption adjustments to total corporate
domestic income (Q).-Source 1
(30,69)
82. Rate of capacity utilization, manufacturing (Q).-Source
4
(21,63)

102. Change in money supply M2 (demand deposits and
currency plus time deposits at commercial banks other
than large CD's) (M).-Source 4
(32,70)
104. Change in total liquid assets (smoothed) (M). Sources
1 and 4
(14,32,70)
105. Money supply Ml (demand deposits plus currency) in
1972 dollars (M).-Sources 1, 3, and 4 (14,32,70)
106. Money supply M2 (demand deposits and currency plus
time deposits at commercial banks other than large
CD's) in 1972 dollars (M).-Sources 1,3, and 4(32,70)
107. Ratio,gross national product to money supply Ml (Q).
Sources 1 and 4
(32,70)
108. Ratio, personal income to money supply M2 (M).
Sources 1 and 4
(32,70)
109. Average prime rate charged by banks (M).-Source
4
(36,72)
110. Total funds raised by private nonfinancial borrowers in
credit markets (Q).-Source 4
(33,71)

83. Rate of capacity utilization, manufacturing (EOQ).Source 1
(21,63)

112. Net change in bank loans to businesses (M), Source 4;
seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic
Analysis
(33,71)

84. Rate of capacity utilization, materials (Q)-Source
4
(21,63)

113. Net change in consumer installment debt (M), Source
4
(33,71)

85. Change in money supply Ml (demand deposits plus
currency) (M).-Source 4
(32,70)

114. Discount rate on new issues of 91-day Treasury bills
(M).-Source 4
(35,71)

86. Gross private domestic fixed investment, total nonresidential, in 1972 dollars (Q).-Source 1 (26,66)

115. Yield on long-term Treasury bonds (M). - U.S. Department of the Treasury
(35,72)

TITLES AND SOURCES OF SERIES- Continued
116. Yield on new issues of high-grade corporate bonds
(M).-Citibank and U.S. Department of the
Treasury
(35,72)
117. Yield on municipal bonds, 20-bond average (M).-The
Bond Buyer
(35,72)
118. Secondary market yields on FHA mortgages (M).-U.S.
Department of Housing and Urban Development, Federal
Housing Administration
(35,72)
119. Federal funds rate (M).-Source 4

227. Per capita disposable personal income in 1972 dollars
(Q).-Sources 1 and 2
(41,79)

973. Diffusion index of net sales, manufacturing and tradeabout 1400 businessmen reporting (Q).—Dun &
Bradstreet, Inc. (Used by permission. This series may
not be reproduced without written permission from the
source.)
(39,75)

231. Personal consumption expenditures, total, in 1972
dollars (Q).-Source 1
(42,79)

(35,71)

I-C. Diffusion Indexes
950. Diffusion index of twelve leading indicator components
(M).-Source 1
(37,73)
951. Diffusion index of four roughly coincident indicator
components (M).-Source 1
(37,73)
952. Diffusion index of six lagging indicator components
(M).-Source 1
(37,73)
961. Diffusion index of average workweek of production
workers, manufacturing—21 industries (M).—Sources 1
and 3
(37,73,76)
962. Diffusion index of initial claims for unemployment insurance, State programs—51 areas (M).—Source 1 and
U.S. Department of Labor, Employment Training Administration; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of
Economic Analysis
(37,73)
963. Diffusion index of number of employees on private nonagricultural payrolls-172 industries (M).-Source
3
(37,73)
964. Diffusion index of value of manufacturers' new orders,
durable goods industries—35 industries (M).—Sources
1 and 2
(38,74,76)
965. Diffusion index of newly approved capital appropriations, deflated-17 industries (Q).-The Conference
Board. (Used by permission. This series may not be
reproduced without written permission from the
source.)
(38,74)
966. Diffusion index of industrial production-24 industries
(M).-Sources 1 and 4
(38,74,77)
967. Diffusion index of industrial materials prices—13 industrial materials (M).-Sources 1 and 3 (38,74,78)
968. Diffusion index of stock prices, 500 common stocks—
62-82 industries (M).-Standard & Poor's Corporation
(38,74)
969. Diffusion index of profits, manufacturing-about 1,000
corporations (Q).—Citibank; seasonal adjustment by
Bureau of Economic Analysis and National Bureau of
Economic Research, Inc.
(38,74)
970. Diffusion index of business expenditures for new plant
and equipment, total—18 industries (Q).—Source
1
(39,75)
971. Diffusion index of new orders, manufacturing—about
700 businessmen reporting (Q).—Dun & Bradstreet, Inc.
(Used by permission. This series may not be reproduced
without written permission from the source.) (39,75)




972. Diffusion index of net profits, manufacturing and
trade—about 1400 businessmen reporting (Q).-Dun &
Bradstreet, Inc. (Used by permission. This series may
not be reproduced without written permission from the
source.)
(39,75)

974. Diffusion index of number of employees, manufacturing
and trade—about 1400 businessmen reporting (Q),—
Dun & Bradstreet, Inc. (Used by permission. This series
may not be reproduced without written permission from
the source.)
(39,75)

230. Personal consumption expenditures, total, in current
dollars (Q).-Source 1
(42,79)

232. Personal consumption expenditures, durable goods, in
current dollars (Q).-Source 1
(42,79)
233. Personal consumption expenditures, durable goods, in
1972 dollars (Q).-Source 1
(42,79)
235. Personal consumption expenditures, total, as a percent
of gross national product (Q).-Source 1
(48,82)

975. Diffusion index of level of inventories, manufacturing
and trade—about 1400 businessmen reporting (Q).-- •
Dun & Bradstreet, Inc. (Used by permission. This series
may not be reproduced without written permission from
the source.)
(39,75)

236. Personal consumption expenditures, nondurable goods,
in current dollars (Q).-Source 1
(42,80)

976. Diffusion index of selling prices, manufacturing—about
700 businessmen reporting (Q).—Dun & Bradstreet, Inc.
(Used by permission. This series may not be reproduced
without written permission from the source.) (39,75)

238. Personal consumption expenditures, nondurable goods,
in 1972 dollars (Q).-Source 1
(42,80)

977. Diffusion index of selling prices, wholesale trade—about
450 businessmen reporting (Q).—Dun & Bradstreet, Inc.
(Used by permission. This series may not be reproduced
without written permission from the source.) (39,75)
978. Diffusion index of selling prices, retail trade—about 250
businessmen reporting (Q).—Dun & Bradstreet, Inc.
(Used by permission. This series may not be reproduced
without written permission from the source.) (39,75)

237. Personal consumption expenditures, services, in current
dollars (Q).-Source 1
(42,80)

239. Personal consumption expenditures, services, in 1972
dollars (Q).-Source 1
(42,80)
240. Gross private domestic investment, total, in current
dollars (Q).-Source 1
(43,80)
241. Gross private domestic investment, total, in 1972
dollars (Q).-Source 1
(43,80)
242. Gross private domestic fixed investment, total, in
current dollars (Q).-Source 1
(43,80)
243. Gross private domestic fixed investment, total, in 1972
dollars (Q).-Source 1
(43,80)

11-A. National Income and Product
30. Gross private domestic investment, change in business
inventories, all industries, in 1972 dollars (Q).-Source
1
(27,43,67,80)

245. Gross private domestic investment, change in business
inventories, all industries, in current dollars (Q), Source I
(43,80)

50. Gross national product in 1972 dollars (Q).-Source
i
(20,40,41,62,79)

247. Gross private domestic investment, change in business
inventories, all industries, as a percent of gross national
product (Q).-Source 1
(48,82)

64. Compensation of employees as a percent of national income (Q).-Source 1
(31,48,69,82)
200. Gross national product in current dollars (Q).-Source
1
(41,79)
213. Final sales (series 50 minus series 30) in 1972 dollars

(Q).-Source 1

(41,79)

217. Per capita gross national product in 1972 dollars (Q).Sources 1 and 2
(41,79)
220. National income
1

in current dollars (Q).—Source
(46,81)

223. Personal income in current dollars (M).—Source
1
(41,62)
224. Disposable personal income in current dollars (Q).—
Source 1
(41,79)
225. Disposable personal income in 1972 dollars (Q).—
Source 1
(41,79)

248. Gross private domestic fixed investment, nonresidential,
as a percent of gross national product (Q).—Source
1
(48,82)
249. Gross private domestic fixed investment, residential, as
a percent of gross national product (Q).—Source
1
(48,82)
250. Net exports of goods and services in current dollars;
national income and product accounts (Q).—Source
1
(45,81)
251. Net exports of goods and services as a percent of gross
national product (Q).-Source 1
(48,82)
252. Exports of goods and services in current dollars;
national income and product accounts (Q).—Source
1
(45,81)
253. Imports of goods and services in current dollars;
national income and product accounts (Q).—Source
1
(45,81)

115

TITLES AND SOURCES OF SERIES- Continued
255, Net exports of goods and services in 1972 dollars;
national income and product accounts (Q).-Source
1
(45,81)
256, Exports of goods and services in 1972 dollars; national
income and product accounts (Q).-Source 1 (45,81)

295. Business saving—undistributed corporate profits plus
capital consumption allowances with inventory valuation
and capital consumption adjustments (Q).—Source
1
(47,81)
298. Government surplus or deficit, total (Q).-Source
1
(47,82)

257, Imports of goods and services in 1972 dollars; national
income and product accounts (Q).-Source 1 (45,81)

262. Federal Government purchases of goods and services in
current dollars (Q).--Source 1
(44,80)
263. Federal Government purchases of goods and services in
1972 dollars (Q).-Souree 1
(44,80)

444. Number unemployed, males 20 years and over, labor
force survey (M).-Sources 2 and 3
(52,88)

310. Implicit price deflator, gross national product (Q).
Source 1
(49,83)

445. Number unemployed, females 20 years and over, labor
force survey (M).-Sources 2 and 3
(52,88)

311. Fixed weighted price index, gross business product
(Q).-Source 1
(49,83)

446. Number unemployed, both sexes 16-19 years of age,
labor force survey (M).-Sources 2 and 3
(52,88)

320. Index of consumer prices, all items (M).—Source
3
(50,58,83,93)

447. Number unemployed, full-time workers, labor force survey (M).-Sources 2 and 3
(52,88)
448. Number employed, part-time workers for economic
reasons, labor force survey (M),—Sources 2 and
3
(52,88)

322. Index of consumer prices, food (M).-Source 3(50,83)

266, State and local government purchases of goods and services in current dollars (Q), Source 1
(44,80)

330. Index of wholesale prices, all commodities (M). Source
3
(49,84)

268. State and local government purchases of goods and services as a percent of gross national product (Q).—
Source 1
(48,82)
280. Compensation of employees (Q).- Source 1

(46,81)

282. Proprietors' income with inventory valuation and capital
consumption adjustments (Q).—Source 1
(46,81)
283. Proprietors' income with inventory valuation and capital
consumption adjustments as a percent of national income (Q).-Source 1
(48,82)

284. Rental income of persons with capital consumption adjustment (Q).-Source 1
(46,81)
285. Rental income of persons with capital consumption adjustment as a percent of national income (Q).—Source
1
(48,82)
286. Corporate profits with inventory valuation and capital
consumption adjustments (Q).—Source 1
(46,81)
287. Corporate profits with inventory valuation and capital
consumption adjustments as a percent of national income (Q).-Souree 1
(48,82)
288. Net interest (Q).-Source 1

(46,81)

441. Total civilian labor force , labor force survey (M).Sources 2 and 3
(52,88)

II-B. Prices, Wages, and Productivity

265. Federal Government purchases of goods and services as
a percent of gross national product (Q), Source
1
(48,82)

267, State and local government purchases of goods and services in 1972 dollars (Q).-Source 1
(44,80)

37, Number of persons unemployed, labor force survey
(M).~Sources 2 and 3
(19,52,61,88)

442. Total civilian employment, labor force survey (M).
Sources 2 and 3
(52,88)

260. Government purchases of goods and services, total, in
current dollars (Q).-Souree 1
(44,80)
261. Government purchases of goods and services, total, in
1972 dollars (Q).-Source 1
(44,80)

II-C. Labor Force, Employment, and Unemployment

331. Index of wholesale prices, crude materials for further
processing (M).-Source 3
(49,84)
332. Index of wholesale prices, intermediate materials, supplies, and components (M).-Source 3
(49,85)
333. Index of wholesale prices, producer finished goods
(M).-Source 3
(49,85)
334. Index of wholesale prices, consumer finished goods
(M).-Source 3
(49,85)
335. Index of wholesale prices, industrial commodities
(M).-Source 3
(49,84)
340. Index of average hourly earnings of production workers,
private nonfarm economy—adjusted for overtime (in
manufacturing only), interindustry employment shifts,
and seasonally (M).-Source 3
(50,86)

451. Civilian labor force participation rate, males 20 years
and over (M).-Sourees 2 and 3
(52,88)
452. Civilian labor force participation rate, females 20 years
and over (M).-Sources 2 and 3
(52,88)
453. Civilian labor force participation rate, both sexet 16-19
years of age (M).-Sources 2 and 3
(52,88)

II-D. Government Activities
500. Federal Government surplus or deficit; national income
and product accounts (Q).-Source 1
(53,89)
501. Federal Government receipts; national income and
product accounts (Q).-Source 1
(53,89)
502. Federal Government expenditures; national income and
product accounts (Q).-Souree 1
(53,89)
510. State and local government surplus or deficit; national
income and product accounts (Q).—Source 1 (53,89)

341. Index of real average hourly earnings of production
workers, private nonfarm economy—adjusted for overtime (in manufacturing only), interindustry employment
shifts, and seasonality (M).-Source 3
(50,86)

511. State and local government receipts; national income
and product accounts (Q).—Source 1
(53,89)

345. Index of average hourly compensation, all employees,
nonfarm business sector (Q).—Source 3
(50,86)

512. State and local government expenditures; national income and product accounts (Q).-Source 1 (53,89)

346. Index of real average hourly compensation, all
employees, nonfarm business sector (Q).—Source
3
(50,87)

516. Defense Department obligations incurred, total, excluding military assistance (Q),—U.S. Department of
Defense, OSD, Comptroller, Directorate for Program
Financial Control; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of
Economic Analysis
(54,89)

348. Negotiated wage and benefit decisions, all industriesfirst year average (mean) changes (Q).—Source
3
(51,87)
349. Negotiated wage and benefit decisions, all industriesaverage (mean) changes over life of contract (Q).—
Source 3
(51,87)

525. Military prime contract awards to U.S. business firms
and institutions (M). U.S Department of Defense,
OSD, Comptroller, Directorate for Management Information Operation and Control; seasonal adjustment by
Bureau of Economic Analysts
(54,89)

(47,81)

358. Index of output per hour, all persons, nonfarm business
sector (Q).-Source 3
(50,87)

548. Value of manufacturers' new orders, defense products
(M).-Source 2
(54,89)

293. Personal saving rate—personal saving as a percent of
disposable personal income (Q).-Source 1 (47,82)

370. Index of output per hour, all persons, private business
sector (Q).-Source 3
(50,87)

564. Federal Government purchases of goods and services for
national defense (Q).-Source 1
(54,89)

289. Net interest as a percent of national income (Q), Source 1
(48,82)
290. Gross saving—private saving plus government surplus or
deficit (Q).-Souree 1
(47,81)
292. Personal saving (Q).-Souree 1

116



TITLES AND SOURCES OF SERIES- Continued
II-E. U.S. International Transactions

II-F. International Comparisons

602. Exports, excluding military aid shipments, total (M).—
Source 2
(55,90)

19. United States, index of stock prices, 500 common stocks
(M).-Standard & Poor's Corporation (14,29,58,68,94)

604. Exports of agricultural products (M).-Source 2;
seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic
Analysis
(55,90)

47. United States, index of industrial production, total
(M).-Source 4
(15,21,40,57,62,77,92)

606. Exports of nonelectrical machinery (M).-Source 2;
seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic
Analysis
(55 r 90)
612. General imports, total (M).-Source 2

(55,90)

614. Imports of petroleum and petroleum products (M).—
Source 2; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic
Analysis
(55,90)
616. Imports of automobiles and parts (M).-Source 2;
seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic
Analysis
(55,90)
618. Merchandise exports, adjusted, excluding military grants

(Q).-Source 1

320. United States, index of consumer prices, all items
(M).-Source 3
(49,58,83,93)
721. Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, European countries, index of industrial production (M).—Organization for Economic Cooperation and
Development (Paris)
(57,92)

722. United Kingdom, index of industrial production (M).—
Central Statistical Office (London)
(57,92)
723. Canada, index of industrial production (M).—Statistics
Canada (Ottawa)
.
(57,92)

(56,91)

620. Merchandise imports, adjusted, excluding military
(Q).-Source 1
(56,91)

725. West Germany, index of industrial production (M).Federal Statistical Office (Wiesbaden); seasonal adjustment by OECD
(57,92)

622. Balance on merchandise trade (Q).—Source 1 (56,91)
651. Income on U.S. investments abroad (Q).-Source
1
(56,91)
652. Income on foreign investments in the United States

(Q).-Source 1

726. France, index of industrial production (M).—Institut
National de la Statistique et des Etudes Economiques
(Paris)
(57,92)

(56,91)

667. Balance on goods and services (Q).—Source 1(56,91)

727. Italy, index of industrial production (M),—Institute
Centrale di Statistica (Rome)
.
(57,92)




733. Canada, index of consumer prices (M).—Statistics
Canada (Ottawa); percent changes seasonally adjusted
by Bureau of Economic Analysis
(58,94)
735. West Germany, index of consumer prices (M).-Federal
Statistical Office (Wiesbaden); percent changes
seasonally adjusted by Bureau of Economic
Analysis
(58,93)
736. France, index of consumer prices (M).-lnstitut
National de la Statistique et des Etudes Economiques
(Paris); percent changes seasonally adjusted by Bureau
of Economic Analysis
(58,93)
737. Italy, index of consumer prices (M).—Institute Centrale
di Statistica (Rome); percent changes seasonally adjusted by Bureau of Economic Analysis
(58,94)
738. Japan, index of consumer prices (M).—Office of the
Prime Minister (Tokyo); percent changes seasonally adjusted by Bureau of Economic Analysis
(58,93)
742. United Kingdom, index of stock prices (M).—The Financial Times (London)
(58,94)
743. Canada, index of stock prices (M).-Statistics Canada
(Ottawa)
(58,94)
745. West Germany, index of stock prices (M).—Federal
Statistical Office (Wiesbaden)
(58,94)
746. France, index of stock prices (M).—Institut National de
la Statistique et des Etudes Economiques (Paris)(58,94)
747. Italy, index of stock prices (M).-Banca d'ltalia
(Rome)
(58,94)

668. Exports of goods and services, excluding transfers under
U.S. military grants (Q).-Source 1
(56,91)
669. Imports of goods and services, total (Q).-Source
1
(56,91)

732. United Kingdom, index of consumer prices (M).—
Ministry of Labour (London); percent changes seasonally adjusted by Bureau of Economic Analysis (58,93)

728. Japan, index of industrial production (M).—Ministry of
International Trade and Industry (Tokyo)
(57,92)

748. Japan, index of stock prices (M).-Tokyo Stock Exchange (Tokyo)
(58,94)

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