Full text of Business Conditions Digest : April 1978
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U.S. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE Juanita M. Kreps, Secretary Courtenay M. Slater, Chief Economist for the Department of Commerce BUREAU OF ECONOMIC ANALYSIS George Jaszi, Director Allan H. Young, Deputy Director John E. Cremeans, Associate Director for National Analysis and Projections Feliks Tamm, Editor This report is prepared in the Statistical Indicators Division, Bureau of Economic Analysis. Technical staff and their responsibilities for the publication areBarry A. Beckman—Technical supervision and review Morton Somer—Selection of seasonal adjustment methods Betty F. Tunstall—Collection and compilation of basic data. Telephone (202) 523-0541 The cooperation of various government and private agencies which provide data is gratefully acknowledged. Agencies furnishing data are indicated in the list of series and sources at the back of this report. This publication is prepared under the general guidance of a technical committee under the auspices of the Office of Federal Statistical Policy and Standards. The committee consists of the following persons: Beatrice N. Vaccara, Chairman, U.S. Department of the Treasury John E. Cremeans, Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Department of Commerce Joseph W. Duncan, Office of Federal Statistical Policy and Standards Lyle E. Gramley, Council of Economic Advisers, Executive Office of the President J. Cortland Peret, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System Julius Shiskin, Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Department of Labor ABOUT THIS REPORT BUSINESS CONDITIONS DIGEST (BCD) provides a monthly look at many of the economic time series found most useful by business analysts and forecasters. The original BCD, which began publication in 1961 under the title Business Cycle Developments, emphasized the cyclical indicators approach to the analysis of business conditions and prospects. The report's contents were based largely on the list of leading, roughly coincident, and lagging indicators maintained by the National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. In 1968, BCD was expanded to increase its usefulness to analysts using other approaches to business conditions analysis. Principal additions to the report were series from the national income and product accounts and series based on surveys of businessmen's and consumers' anticipations and intentions. The composite indexes were added at that time, and the report's present title was adopted. The dominant feature of the current BCD,is the cyclical indicators section, in which each business cycle indicator is assigned a three-way timing classification according to its behavior at peaks, at troughs, and at all turns. This section is supplemented by a section containing other important economic measures. The method of presentation is explained in the introductory-text which begins on page 1. ' Annual subscription price: $40 domestic, $50 foreign. Single copy price: $3.50 domestic, $4.50 foreign. For information concerning foreign airmail delivery, available at an additional charge, write the Superintendent of Documents (address Most of the data contained in this report also are published by their source agencies. A series finding guide and a complete list of series titles and sources can be found at the back of the report. Cyclical Indicators are economic time series which have been singled out as leaders, coinciders, or laggers based on their general conformity to cyclical movements in aggregate economic activity. In this report, cyclical indicators are classified both by economic process and by their average timing at business cycle peaks, at business cycle troughs, and at peaks and troughs combined. These indicators have been selected primarily on the basis of their cyclical behavior, but they also have proven useful in forecasting, measuring, and interpreting short-term fluctuations in aggregate economic activity. Other Economic Measures provide additional information for the evaluation of current business conditions and prospects. They include selected components of the national income and product accounts; measures of prices, wages, and productivity; measures of the labor force, employment, and unemployment; economic data on Federal, State, and local government activities; measures of U.S. international transactions; and selected economic comparisons with major foreign countries. follows), enclosing a copy of your address label. Make checks payable to the Superintendent of Documents. Send to the U.S. Government Printing Office, Washington, D.C. 20402. BUSINESS CONDITIONS DIGEST New Features and Changes for This Issue iii BCII METHOD OF PRESENTATION Seasonal Adjustments MCD Moving Averages Reference Turning Dates Part I. Cyclical Indicators Part II. Other Important Economic Measures How To Read Charts How To Locate a Series Summary of Recent Data and Current Changes 1 1 1 1 4 6 6 7 APRIL 1978 Data Through March Volume 18, Number 4 PART I. CYCLICAL INDICATORS COMPOSITE INDEXES AND THEIR COMPONENTS A1 A2_ A3_ A4 Composite Indexes Leading Index Components Coincident Index Components Lagging Index Components Chart Table 11 13 15 16 59 — — — 17 20 22 24 27 29 32 60 62 63 64 67 68 70 37 — 40 73 75 - CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS B1 82 B3 B4 B5 B6 B7 Employment and Unemployment Production and Income Consumption, Trade, Orders, and Deliveries Fixed Capital Investment Inventories and Inventory Investment Prices, Costs, and Profits Money and Credit DIFFUSION INDEXES AND RATES OF CHANGE C1 C2 C3 Diffusion Indexes Selected Diffusion Index Components Rates of Change The Secretary of Commerce has determined that the publication of this periodical is necessary in the transaction of the public business required by law of this Department. Use of funds for printing this periodical has been approved by the Director of the Office of Management and Budget through September 1, 1980. ItCII PART II. OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT AT A4 A7 A8 GNP and Personal Income Personal Consumption Expenditures Gross Private Domestic Investment Government Purchases of Goods and Services Foreign Trade National Income and Its Components Saving Shares of GNP and National Income Chart Table 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 79 79 80 80 81 81 81 82 49 50 83 86 52 88 53 54 89 89 55 56 90 91 57 53 53 92 93 94 PRICES, WAGES, AND PRODUCTIVITY Price Movements Wages and Productivity LABOR FORCE, EMPLOYMENT, AND UNEMPLOYMENT Civilian Labor Force and Major Components GOVERNMENT ACTIVITIES Receipts and Expenditures Defense Indicators U.S. INTERNATIONAL TRANSACTIONS Merchandise Trade Goods and Services Movements INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS Industrial Production Consumer Prices Stock Prices PART III. APPENDIXES A. MCD and Related Measures of Variability . . . . QCD and Related Measures of Variability B. Current Adjustment Factors C. Historical Data for Selected Series D. Descriptions and Sources of Series (See "Alphabetical Index—Series Finding Guide") E. Business Cycle Expansions and Contractions: 1854 to 1975 (September 1977 issue} F. Specific Peak and Trough Dates for Selected Business Indicators (October 1977 issue) G. Experimental Data and Analyses Alphabetical index—Series Finding Guide Titles and Sources of Series 95 98 101 102 104 109 113 Readers are invited to submit comments and suggestions concerning this publication. Address them to Feliks Tamm, Chief, Statistical Indicators Division, Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Department of Commerce, Washington, D.C. 20230 NEW FEATURES AND CHANGES FOR THIS ISSUE A limited number of changes are made from time to time to incorporate recent findings of economic research, newly available time series, and revisions made by source agencies in concept, compos/t/on, comparability, coverage, seasonal adjustment methods, benchmark Changes in this issue are as follows: data, etc. Changes may 1. Data from the survey on "Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories, and Orders" have been revised by the source agency for the period 1958 to date. These revisions reflect (1) benchmarking of shipments and inventories data to the 1974, 1975, and 1976 Annual Surveys of Manufactures; (2) recalculation of the new orders estimates; and (3) updating of seasonal adjustment factors. BCD series have been revised to incorporate these changes as follows: Series 6, 7, 8, 25, 36, 38, 65, 78, 96, and 964 have been revised for the period 1958 to date. Series 10, 20, 24, 27, 69, and 548 have been revised for the period 1968 to date. The other series which include data on manufacturers' shipments, inventories, and orders (series 31, 56, 57, 70, 71, and 77) have not yet been revised to incorporate these changes. Revised data for these series will be published when they become available. Further information concerning these revisions may be obtained from the U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census, Industry Division. (Continued on page iv.) The May issue of BUSINESS CONDITIONS DIGEST is scheduled for release on June 6. in result in revisions of data, additions or deletions of series, changes in placement of series in relation to other series, changes in composition of indexes, etc. 2. The Change in total liquid assets (series 104) has been revised for the period 1964 to date. This revision reflects the source agency's incorporation of new benchmark adjustments for nonmember banks and new seasonal adjustment factors. Further information concerning this revision may be obtained from the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Division of Research and Statistics, Banking Section. 3. A new diffusion index for Initial claims for State unemployment insurance is introduced in this issue. This new index, based on the 50 States and the District of Columbia, replaces the index based on 47 labor market areas, for which data are no longer available. The series identification number (962) remains unchanged. 4. Appendix C contains historical data for series 60, 72, 90, 112, and 967. 5. Appendix G contains recovery comparisons for series 8, 20, 30, 36, 50, 73, 74, and 92. IV This report is organized into two major parts. Part I, Cyclical Indicators, includes about 150 time series which have been found to conform well to broad fluctuations in comprehensive measures of economic activity. Nearly three-fourths of these are individual indicators, the rest are related analytical measures: Composite indexes, diffusion indexes, and rates of change. Part II, Other Important Economic Measures, covers over 130 series which are valuable to business analysts and forecasters but which do not conform well enough to business cycles to qualify as cyclical indicators. (There are a few exceptions: Four series which are included in part I are also shown in part IS to complete the systematic presentation of certain sets of data, such as real GiNP and unemployment) The largest section of part SI consists of quarterly series from the national income and product accounts; other sections relate to prices, labor force, government activities, and international transactions and comparisons. The two parts are further divided into sections (see table of contents), and each of these sections is described briefly in this introduction. Data are shown both in charts and in tables. Most charts begin with 1955, but those for the composite indexes and their components (part I, section A) begin with 1948, and a few charts use a two-panel format which covers only the period since 1968. Except for section F in part II, charts contain shading whicin indicates periods of recession in general business activity. The tables contain data for only the last few years. The historical data for the various time series are contained in the 1977 Handbook of Cyclical Indicators. In addition to the charts and tables described above, each issue contains a summary table which shows the current behavior of many of the series. Appendixes present seasonal adjustment factors, measures of variability, specific cycle turning dates, cyclical comparison charts, and other information of analytical interest An index appears at the back of each issue. It should be noted that the series numbers used are for identification purposes only 'and do not reflect precise relationships or order. However, all series considered as cyclical indicators are numbered in the range 1 to 199. Seasonal Adjustments Reference Turning Dates Adjustments for average seasonal fluctuations are often necessary to bring out the underlying trends of time series. Such adjustments allow for the effects of repetitive intrayear variations resulting primarily from normal differences in weather conditions and from various institutional arrangements. Variations attributable to holidays are usually accounted for by the seasonal adjustment process; however, a separate holiday adjustment is occasionally required for holidays with variable dates, such as Easter. An additional adjustment is sometimes necessary for series which contain considerable variation due to the number of working or trading days in each month. As used in this report, the term "seasonal adjustment" includes trading-day and holiday adjustments where they have been made. Most of the series in this report are presented in seasonally adjusted form and, in most cases, these are the official figures released by the source agencies. However, for the special purposes of this report, a number of series not ordinarily published in seasonally adjusted form are shown here on a seasonally adjusted basis. The historical business cycle turning dates used in this report are those designated by the National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. (NBER). They mark the approximate dates when, according to NBER, aggregate economic activity reached its cyclical high or low levels. As a matter of general practice, neither new reference turning dates nor the shading for recessions will be entered on the charts until after both the new reference peak and the new reference trough bounding the shaded area have been designated. The historical reference turning dates are subject to periodic review by NBER and on occasion are changed as a result of revisions in important economic time series. The dates shown in this publication for the 1948-1970 time period are those determined by a 1974 review. The turning dates for the 1973-1975 period are detailed in NBER's 1976 Annual Report. Part I. CYCLICAL INDICATORS MCD Moving Averages Month-to-month changes in a series are often dominated by erratic movements. MCD (months for cyclical dominance) is an estimate of the appropriate span over which to observe cyclical movements in a monthly series. (See appendix A.) It is the smallest span of months for which the average change in the cyclical factor is greater than that in the irregular factor. The more erratic a series is, the larger the MCD will be; thus, MCD is 1 for the smoothest series and 6 for the most erratic. MCD moving averages (that is, moving averages of the period equal to MCD) tend to have about the same degree of smoothness for all series. Thus, a 5-term moving average of a series with an MCD of 5 will show its cyclical movements about as clearly as the seasonally adjusted data for a series with an MCD of 1. The charts in this report generally include centered MCD moving averages for those series with an MCD greater than 4. The seasonally adjusted data are also plotted to indicate their variation about the moving averages and to provide observations for the most recent months. Business cycles have been defined as sequences of expansion and contraction in various economic processes that show up as major fluctuations in aggregate economic activity—that is, in comprehensive measures of production, employment, income, and trade. While recurrent and pervasive, business cycles of historical experience have been definitely nonperiodic and have varied greatly in duration and intensity, reflecting changes in economic systems, conditions, policies, and outside disturbances. One of the techniques developed in business cycle research and widely used as a tool for analyzing current economic conditions and prospects is the cyclical indicators approach. This approach identifies certain economic time series as tending to lead, coincide with or lag behind the broad movements in aggregate economic activity. Such indicators have been selected and analyzed by NBER in a series of studies published between 1938 and 1967. During the 1972-75 period, a new comprehensive review of cyclical indicators was carried out by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) with the cooperation of the NBER research staff. The present format and content of part I of BCD are based on the results of that study. Cross-Classification of Cyclical Indicators by Economic and C. A. Timing at Business Cycle Peaks X, Economic \Process Cyclical x. Timing N. LEADING (L) INDICATORS (62 series) ROUGHLY COINCtDENT(C) INDICATORS (23 series) LAGGING (Lg) INDICATORS (18 series) TIMING UNCLASSIFIED (u) 8 series) 1. EMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT (18 series) II. PRODUCTION AND INCOME (10 series) Marginal employment adjustments (6 series) Job vacancies (2 series) Comprehensive employment (1 series) Comprehensive unemployment (3 series) Capacity utilization (2 series) New and unfilled orders and deliveries (6 series) Consumption (2 series) Formation of business enterprises (2 series) Business Investment commitments (5 series) Residential construction (3 series) Comprehensive employment (1 series) Comprehensive output and real Income (4 series) Industrial production (4 series) Consumption and trade (4 series) Backlog of investment commitments (1 series) Business investment expenditures (5 series) ill. CONSUMPTION. TRADE, ORDERS, AND DELIVERIES (13 series) V. INVENTORIES AND INVENTORY INVESTMENT (9 series) IV. FIXED CAPITAL INVESTMENT (18 series) A Duration of unemployment (2 series) Trade (1 series) Business Investment commitments (1 series) VII. MONEY AND CREDIT (26 series) 1 ! j Stock prices (1 series) Commodity prices (1 series) Profits and profit margins (7 series) Cash flows (2 series) Inventory Investment (4 series) Inventories on hand and on order (i series) Money flows (3 series) Real money supply (2 series) Credit flows (4 series) Credit difficulties (2 series) Bank reserves (2 series) Interest rates (1 series) Velocity of money (2 series) Interest rates (2 series) t. Business Investment expenditures (1 series) Comprehensive employment (3 series) VI. PRICES, COSTS, AND PROFITS (17 series) Inventories on hand and on order (4 series) i! | Unit labor costs and labor share (4 series) Interest rates (4 series) Outstanding debt (3 series) Commodity prices (1 series) Profit share (1 series) Interest rates (1 series) B, Timing at Business Cycle Troughs \. Economic \Process CyclicaiX Timing X. U. 1. EMPLOYMENT 1 PRODUCTION AND AND UNEMPLOYINCOME MENT (10 series) (18 series) III. CONSUMPTION, TRADE, ORDERS, AND DELIVERIES (13 series) I LEADING (L) INDICATORS Marginal employment adjustments (3 series) (47 series) ' " ' ROUGHLY COINCIDENT(C) INDICATORS (23 series) LAGGING (Lg) INDICATORS (40 series) TIMING UNCLASSIFIED (U) (1 series) . . . VI, VII, PRICES, COSTS, MONEY AND PROFITS AND CREDIT (17 series) (26 series) .. J _u. Inventory investment (4 series) Stock prices (1 series) Commodity prices (2 series) Profits and profit margins (6 series) Cash flows (2 series) Money flows (2 series) Real money supply (2 series) Credit flows (4 series) Credit difficulties (2 series) ij Profits (2 series) Money flow (1 series) Velocity of money (1 series) 5 Unit labor costs and labor share (4 series) Velocity of i money (1 series) Bank reserves (1 series) Interest rates (8 series) Outstanding debt (3 series) i Inventories on hand and on order (5 series) i , i Bank reserves (1 series) i i • •i < Comprehensive Consumption i Business output and and trade investment real Income (3 series) commitments f (4 series) (1 series) ' Industrial production ; (3 series) Capacity utilization (2 series) •I , • ' -; - ' f - - • • - - . . - • - • .i • Unfilled orders Business i {1 series) Investment commitments i (2 series) Business investment • : , expenditures (6 series) f ' Marginal employment adjustments (1 series) Job vacancies (2 series) Comprehensive employment (1 series) Comprehensive and duration of unemployment (5 series) i V, 1 INVENTORIES ! AND INVENTORY j INVESTMENT (9 series) I Formation of business enterprises (2 series) Business investment commitments (4 series) Residential construction (3 series) I1 " " Marginal employment adjustments (2 series) Comprehensive employment (4 series) =-^=-.=.==^,=1^= . _ J_ New and unfilled orders and deliveries (5 series) Consumption and trade (4 series) Industrial production (1 series) IV. FIXED CAPITAL INVESTMENT (18 series) 1 Section A. Composite Indexes and Their Components w e l l - e s t a b l i s h e d d i f f e r e n c e s in timing. Consequently, rough coincidences include short leads (-) and lags (+) as well as exact coincidences (0). (For monthly series, the range is from -3 through +1 at peaks and from -1 through All cyclical indicators have been evaluated ac+3 at troughs, where minus denotes leads and cording to six major characteristics: Economic plus denotes lags in months.) significance, statistical adequacy, consistency of For purposes of constructing a composite index, timing at business cycle peaks and troughs, confor- each component series is standardized; The monthmity to business expansions and contractions, to-month percent changes in a given series are smoothness, and prompt availability (currency). A divided by the long-run average (without regard to formal, detailed weighting scheme was developed sign) of those changes. Thus, the more volatile and used to assess each series by all of the above series are prevented from dominating the index. criteria. (See articles in the May and November The coincident index is calculated so that its long1975 issues of BCD.) The resulting scores relate term trend (since 1948) equals the average of the to the cyclical behavior of the series during the trends of its four components. This trend, which is period 1947-70. This analysis produced a new list similar to that of GNP in constant dollars, can be of indicators classified by economic process and viewed as a linear approximation to the secular Itypical timing at business cycle peaks and troughs. movement (at an average growth rate) in aggregate (See tables on page2 and text below relating to sec- economic activity. The indexes of leading and lagtion B.) ging indicators have been adjusted so that both This information, particularly the scores relating their trends and their average month-to-month to consistency of timing, served as a basis for the percent changes (without regard to sign) are apselection of series to be included in the composite proximately equal to those of the coincident index. indexes. The indexes incorporate the best-scoring (For a more detailed description of the method of series from many different economic-process constructing the composite indexes, see the 1977 groups and combine those with similar timing Handbook of Cyclical Indicators.) behavior, using their overall performance scores as In addition to these principal composite indexes, 'weights. Because they use series of historically differentiated according to cyclical timing, there 'tested usefulness and given timing characteristics are five indexes based on leading indicators which (for example, leading at both peaks and troughs), have been grouped by economic process. Taken fwith diversified economic coverage and a minimum together, these additional indexes include all 12 nrf duplication, composite indexes give more component series of the overall leading index, plus eliable signals over time than do any of the a few related series. Also shown in this section is ndividual indicators. Furthermore, much of the the ratio of the index of roughly coincident ndependent measurement error and other "noise" indicators to the index of lagging indicators, a n the included series are smoothed out in the series known to have a useful pattern of early ndex as a whole. The indexes include only monthly cyclical timing. Numbers entered on the charts of series that are acceptable in terms of relatively the composite indexes show the length, in months, prompt availability and reasonable accuracy. of leads (-) and lags (+) at each of the reference The main composite indexes are distinguished by turning dates covered. their cyclical timing. Thus, there is an index of The next set of data consists of series included eading indicators, series which historically reached in the principal composite indexes. These are the their cyclical peaks and troughs earlier than the 12 components of the leading index, the 4 Corresponding business cycle turns. There is an components of the coincident index, and the 6 ndex of roughly coincident indicators, consisting components of the lagging index. Following the title )f series which historically reached their turning of each series, its typical timing is identified by joints at about the same time as the general three letter symbols in a small box. The first of iconomy, and an index of lagging indicators, which these letters refers to the timing of the given ncludes series that typically reached their peaks indicator at business cycle peaks, the second to its md troughs later than the corresponding business timing at business cycle troughs, and the third to ;ycle turns. its timing at all turns, i.e., at peaks and troughs The leading index contains series with long as combined. "L" denotes a tendency to lead, "C" a fell as short leads, but each series leads on the tendency to roughly coincide with the business verage over time and shows a frequency of leads cycle turns (as represented by the NBERt the individual turns exceeding that attributable designated reference dates), and "Lg" a tendency D chance, given the historical distribution of to lag. Since these series have been selected for the yclical timing. (An analogous statement applies to consistency of their timing at both peaks and he components of the lagging index.) Since 1948, troughs, all components of the leading index are iads were generally more frequent and longer at denoted "L,L,L," all components of the coincident eaks than at troughs of business cycles, while lags index "C.C.C," and all components of the lagging 'ere generally more frequent and longer at troughs index "Lg,Lg,l_g." It should be remembered that lan at peaks. The adopted system of scoring and these classifications are based on limited evidence, lassifying the indicators takes into account these namely the performance of the indicators during the business cycles of the 1948-70 period, which included five peaks and five troughs. While the timing classifications are expected to agree with the patterns prevailing in the near future, they will not necessarily hold invariably in every instance. The timing of the series in the post-1970 period can be determined by inspection of the charts where the 1973-75 recession is shaded according to the dates of the NBER reference cycle chronology. Section B. Cyclical Indicators by Economic Process This section covers 111 individual time series, including the 22 indicators used in the construction of the composite indexes. The peak and trough timing classifications are shown on the charts in the same manner as described above, but this section includes series with different timing at peaks and at troughs, as well as series where the timing is not sufficiently consistent to be classified as either L,C, or Lg according to the probabilistic measures and scoring criteria adopted. Such series are labeled U, i.e., unclassified as to timing at turning points of the given type. Eight series are unclassified at peaks, one series at troughs, and 19 series at all turns (of the 19, 15 have definite but different timing at peaks and at troughs). No series that is classified as U both at peaks and at troughs is included in the list of cyclical indicators. The classification scheme which groups the indicators of this section by economic process and cyclical timing is summarized in the two tabulations on page 2. Cross-classification A is based on the observed behavior of the series at five business cycle peaks (November '48, July '53, August '57, April '60, and December '69); crossclassification B, on their behavior at five business cycle troughs (October '49, May '54, April '58, February '61, and November 70). Each tabulation distinguishes seven major economic processes and four types of cyclical timing. The titles in the cells identify subgroups of the given economic process with the given timing characteristic. The number of series in each such group is given in parentheses following the title. Complete information on how individual indicators are classified by timing at peaks, troughs, and all turns, along with selected measures and scores, is provided in the 1977 Handbook of Cyclical Indicators. Section C. Diffusion Indexes and Rates of Change Many series in this report are aggregates compiled from numerous components. How the individual components of an aggregate move over a given timespan is summarized by a diffusion index which indicates the percentage of components that are rising (with half of the unchanged components considered rising). Cyclical changes in these diffusion indexes tend to lead those of the corresponding aggregates. Since diffusion indexes are highly erratic, they are computed from changes measured over 6- or 9-month (or 3- or 4-quarter) spans, as well as 1-month (or 1-quarter) spans. Longer spans help to highlight the trends underlying the shorter-term fluctuations. Diffusion indexes are shown for the component series included in each of the three composite indexes and for the components of some of the aggregate series shown in section B. Diffusion measures can be derived not only from actual data but also from surveys of anticipations or intentions. Indexes based on responses of business executives about their plans and expectations for several operating variables are presented, along with the corresponding indexes based on actual data, as the last set of diffusion series. This section also records rates of change for the three composite indexes (leading, coincident, and lagging) and for four indicators of aggregate economic activity: GNP in constant dollars (quarterly), industrial production, employee hours in nonagricultural establishments, and personal income less transfers in constant dollars. Rates of change are shown for 1- and 3-month spans or for 1-quarter spans. Although movements in diffusion indexes and in rates of change for the same aggregates are generally positively correlated, these two measures present information about two related but distinct aspects of economic change. Diffusion indexes measure the prevailing direction or scope of change, while rates of change measure the degree as well as the overall direction. As is the case for diffusion indexes, cyclical movements in the rates of change tend to lead those of the corresponding indexes or aggregates, and thus, they tend to lead at the business cycle turns as well. Part II. OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES This part is divided into six sections which cover a wide range of quarterly and monthly time series measuring various aspects of economic activity. Some of these series are very comprehensive, pertaining to the U.S. economy as a whole, others have to do with particular sectors or markets, and still others relate to U.S. international transactions or to selected foreign countries. The represented variables include incomes, outputs, and expenditures; prices, earnings, and productivity; labor resources; government receipts, obligations, and purchases; exports and imports; and selected indicators for a few key foreign countries. Section A. National Income and Product Personal consumption expenditures (A2) is goods and services purchased by individuals, operating expenses of nonprofit institutions, and the value of food, fuel, clothing, rent of dwellings, and financial services received in kind by individuals. Net purchases of used goods are also included. Gross private domestic investment (A3) is fixed capital goods purchased by private business and nonprofit institutions and the value of the change in the physical volume of inventories held by private business. The former include all private purchases of dwellings, whether purchased for tenant or owner occupancy. Net purchases of used goods are also included. The national income and product accounts, compiled by BEA, summarize both receipts and final expenditures for the personal, business, Government purchases of goods and services foreign, and government sectors of the economy. (A4) is the compensation of government employees Section Al shows the gross national product, and purchases from business and from abroad. It final sales, and personal and disposable personal excludes transfer payments, interest paid by income. The four major components of the gross government, and subsidies, It includes gross national p r o d u c t — p e r s o n a l c o n s u m p t i o n investment by government enterprises but excludes expenditures, gross private domestic investment, their current outlays. It includes net purchases of government purchases of goods and services, and used goods and excludes sales and purchases of net exports of goods and services—are presented in land and financial assets. sections A2 through A5. Most of the series in section A are presented in current as well as Net exports of goods and services (AS) is exports constant dollars. There are also a few per capita series. The national income and product accounts, less imports of goods and services. Exports are part briefly defined below, are described more fully in of the 'national production; imports are not, but are the Survey of Current Business, Part I, included in the components of GNP and are therefore deducted. More detail on U.S. January 1976. international transactions is provided in section E. Gross national product (GNP) is the market value of final goods and services produced by the labor and property supplied by residents of the United States, before deduction of allowances for the consumption of fixed capital goods. It is the most comprehensive measure of aggregate economic output. Final sales is GNP less change in business inventories. National income (A6) is the incomes that originate in the production of goods and services attributable to labor and property supplied by residents of the United States. Thus, it measures the factor costs of the goods and services produced. It consists of the compensation of employees, proprietors' income, rental income of persons, corporate profits, and net interest. Personal income is the income received by persons (individuals, owners of unincorporated businesses, nonprofit institutions, private trust funds, and private noninsured welfare funds) from all sources. It is the sum of wage and salary disbursements, other labor income, proprietors' income, rental income of persons, dividends, personal interest income, and transfer payments, less personal contributions for social insurance. Saving (A7) is the difference between income and expenditures during an accounting period. Total gross saving includes personal saving, business saving (mainly undistributed corporate profits and capital consumption allowances), and government surplus or deficit. Disposable personal income is the personal income available for spending or saving. It consists of personal income less personal taxes and nontax payments to government. Shares of GNP and national income (AS).-The major e x p e n d i t u r e c o m p o n e n t s of GNP (consumption, investment, etc.) are expressed as percentages of GNP, and the major income components of national income (compensation of employees, corporate profits, etc.) are expressed as percentages of national income. Section B. Prices, Wages, and Productivity The important data on price movements include the monthly consumer and wholesale price indexes and their major components. Based largely on these series are the quarterly price indexes from the national income and product accounts, notably the GNP implicit price deflator (with weights reflecting the changing proportions of different expenditure categories in GNP) and the fixedweighted price index for the gross business product. Data on both levels and percent changes are presented for the period since 1968. The group of series on wages and productivity consists of data on average hourly earnings and average hourly compensation (including earnings and other benefits) in current and constant dollars, output per hour of work in the business sector, and rates of change for most of these measures. The number of unemployed is subdivided into selected categories defined by sex, age, and class of worker. Also included are data on participation rates for a few principal segments of the labor force. Section F. International Comparisons Section D. Government Activities Receipts, expenditures, and their balance (surplus or deficit) are shown quarterly on two levels: (1) Federal Government and (2) State and local government. Defense series relating to obligations, contracts, and orders (monthly) and purchases (quarterly) are also shown. (For a more comprehensive picture of defense activities, see Defense Indicators, a monthly BEA publication.) Section C. Labor Force, Employment, and Unemployment Section E. U.S. International Transactions This section contains measures of the civilian labor force and its major components: Total numbers of employed and unemployed persons. This group includes monthly series on exports (excluding military aid) and general imports, plus a few selected components of these aggregates. Also shown are the balances between receipts and expenditures for goods and services, merchandise, and investment income. This section is designed to facilitate a quick review of basic economic conditions in six of the nations with which we have important trade relationships. The U.S. business cycle shading has been omitted from these charts. Data on industrial production, consumer prices, and stock prices for Canada, the United Kingdom, France, West Germany, Japan, and Italy are compared with the corresponding U.S. series. Also included is an industrial production index for the European countries in the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD). The industrial production series provide cyclically sensitive output measures for large parts of the economies covered. Changes in consumer price indexes (plotted for the period since 1968) provide important measures of the rates of inflation in the major industrialized countries. Stock prices (also shown beginning in 1968) tend to be significant as leading indicators. HOW TO READ CHARTS Peak (P) of cycle indicates end of expansion and beginning of recession (shaded area) as designated by NBER. Basic Data Arabic number indicates latest month for which data are plotted. ("9" - September) Solid line indicates monthly data. (Data may be actual monthly figures or moving averages.) Dotted line indicates anticipated data. Broken line indicates actual monthly data for series where a moving average is plotted. Roman number indicates latest quarter for which data are plotted. ("IV" = fourth quarter) Solid line with plotting points indicates quarterly data. Parallel lines indicates a break in continuity (data not available, extreme value, etc.). Diffusion Indexes Solid line indicates monthly data over 6- or 9-month spans. Broken line indicates monthly data over 1-month spans. Various scales are used to highlight the patterns of the individual series, "Scale A" is an arithmetic scale, "scale L-1" is a logarithmic scale with 1 cycle in a given distance, "scale L-2" is a logarithmic scale with two cycles in that distance, etc. Arabic number indicates latest month for which data are used in computing the indexes. Broken line with plotting points indicates quarterly data over 1-quarter spans, Roman number indicates latest quarter for which data are used in computing the indexes. Solid line with plotting points indicates quarterly data over various spans. Diffusion indexes and rates of change are centered within the spans they cover. Trough (T) of cycle indicates end of recession and beginning of expansion as designated by NBER. Rates of Change Solid line indicates percent changes over 3- or 6-month spans. Dotted line indicates anticipated quarterly data over various spans. Arabic number indicates latest month used in computing the changes. Broken line indicates percent changes over 1-month spans. Broken line with plotting points indicates percent changes over 1-quarter spans. Solid line with plotting points indicates percent changes over 3-or4-quarter spans. Roman number indicates latest quarter used in computing the changes. HOW TO LOCATE A SERIES 1. See ALPHABETICAL INDEX-SERIES FINDING GUIDE at the back of the report where series are arranged alphabetically according to subject matter and key words and phrases of the series titles, or™ 2. See TITLES AND SOURCES OF SERIES at the back of the report where series are listed numerically according to series numbers within each of the report's sections. Table 1. Summary of Recent Data and Current Changes for Principal Indicators Basic data1 Series title Timing classifi* cation3 Unit of measure Percent change Average 1976 Jan. 1977 3dQ 4th Q 1st Q 1977 1977 1978 Jan. 1978 Mar. 1978 Feb. 1978 Feb. to to Feb. 1978 Mar. 1978 3dQ to 4th Q 4th Q to IstQ 1977 1978 M (.CYCLICAL INDICATORS A. Composite Indexes 910. Twelve leading indicators 920. Four coincident indicators 930. Six lagging indicators Leading Indicator Subgroups: 913. Marginal employment adjustments 914 Capital investment commitments 915. Inventory investment and purchasing 916. Profitability 917. Money and financial flows L,L,L C.C.C Lg.Lg.Lg 1967=100 .. do. . . . do. ... 124.7 122.3 120.7 130.8 130.2 126.7 131.1 130.8 128.1 134.4 133.4 132.0 133.9 134.0 137.0 133.5 132.7 •135.3 134.2 133.8 137.3 134.1 135.6 138.3 0.5 0.8 1.5 98.2 0.1 0.9 0.7 -0.1 1.3 0.7 2.5 2.0 3.0 -0.4 1.5 1.9 0.2 -0.3 -0.3 L.L.L L L'L L.L.L L LL L.L.L do. ... do do, . . , do do. ... Marginal Employment Adjustments: *1. Average workweek, prod, workers, mfg L,L,L 21. Avg. weekly overtime, prod, workers, mfg.2 . . L,C,L 2. Accession rate, per 100 employees, mfg.2 .... L,L,L 5. Avg. weekly initial claims (inverted4) L,C,L *3. Layoff rate, per 100 employ., mfg. (inv.4)2 . . L.L.L 4. Quit rate, per 100 employees, mfg.2 L,Lg,U Hours do. ... Percent Thousands. . Percent do. ... 40.0 3.1 3.9 384 1.3 1.7 3.4 4.0 371 1.2 1.9 3.3 3.8 383 1.3 1.8 3.5 4.1 351 1.0 1.9 3.7 4.0 340 0.9 2.0 3.5 4.0 331 0.9 1.9 4.0 4.0 370 0.9 2.0 3.7 4.0 320 0.9 2.0 1.0 0.5 0.0 -11.8 0.0 0.1 Job Vacancies: 60. Ratio, help-wanted advertising to persons unemployed2 46 Help-wanted advertising Ratio 1967=100... 0.390 95 0.517 118 0.535 121 0.608 134 0.674 139 0.660 138 0.679 139 0.683 141 0.019 0.7 0.004 1.4 0.073 A.r., bil. hrs.. Thousands. . do. ... do. . . . 151.48 84,188 79,443 23,332 156.53 87,302 82,140 24,232 157.08 87,613 82,548 24,359 158.58 88,761 83,192 24,497 159.14 89,748 84,091 24,739 157.64 89,527 83,719 24,593 158.98 89,761 84,055 24,729 160.80 89,956 84,498 24,896 0.8 0.3 0.4 0.6 1.1 0.2 0.5 0.7 1.0 1.3 0.8 0.6 Percent 56.06 57.11 57.16 57.71 58.11 58.07 58.08 58.18 Thousands . . Percent do. , . . Weeks Percent 7,288 7.7 4.5 6,855 7.0 3.9 6,736 6.9 3.9 6,554 6.6 3.8 6,155 6.2 3.5 6,226 6.3 3.5 6,090 6.1 3.6 6,148 6.2 3.4 15.8 14.3 13.9 13.8 12.6 13.1 12.5 12.3 96.2 106.7 102.0 108.1 107.9 96.9 96.2 111.8 102.7 107.8 111.8 112.3 102.7 109.3 112.1 40.3 40.3 97.6 97.3 96.8 96.9 114.4 102.9 107.1 114.3 114.1 104.1 104.2 111.2 113.3 103.7 104.5 113.6 114.3 104.4 104.1 111.1 40.5 40.0 39.6 40.0 114.8 104.1 104.0 109.0 -0.4 -2.2 1.3 0.4 -0.3 -0.1 -1.9 -2.0 2.0 0.4 3.8 1.2 -2.7 -2.7 91 92 93 91 91 91 91 91 B. Cyclical Indicators by Economic Process B1. Employment and Unemployment L,Lg,U L,Lg,U Comprehensive Employment: 48, Employee hours in nonagri. establishments . . . u.c.c 42, Persons engaged in nonagri. activities u.c.c *41. Employees on nonagri. payrolls c,c,c 40. Employees in mfg., mining, construction L.C.U 90, Ratio, civilian employment to total population of working age2 U,Lg,U Comprehensive Unemployment: 37 Total unemployed (inverted4) . L,Lg,U 43. Unemployment rate, total (inverted4)2 L,Lg,U 45. Avg. weekly insured unemploy-rate (inv.4)2 .. L,Lg,U *91. Avg. duration of unemployment (inverted4) . . Lg,Lg,Lg 44. Unemploy. rate, 15 weeks and over (inv.4)2 . . Lg,Lg,Lg 2.5 2.0 1.9 1.8 1.6 1.7 1.6 40.5 1.5 0.01 2.2 0.2 -0.1 4.6 0.1 1.2 -0.3 0.0 13.5 0.0 0.0 0.10 0.5 0.2 0.3 8.4 0.3 0,1 10.7 0.55 0.2 0.2 1.6 0.1 0.7 0.8 1.0 2.3 2.6 2 -0.1 3.1 0.1 0.1 0.066 3.7 6 4 0.4 1.1 1.1 1.0 4 4 4 4 0.40 2.7 0.3 0.1 0.7 0.1 -1.0 -0.1 -1.2 6.1 0.4 0.3 8.7 0.2 9 3 4 4 9 4 82. Production and Income Comprehensive Output and Income: C,CC 50 GNP in 1972 dollars C.C.C 52 Personal income in 1972 dollars •51 . Pers. income less transfer pay., 1972 dollars . . C.C.C 53. Wages and salaries in mining, mfg., and conc,c,c struction 1972 dollars Industrial Production: *47 Industrial production total ... 73 Industrial production durable mfrs 74. Industrial production, nondurable mfrs 49. Value of goods output, 1972 dollars Capacity Utilization: 82. Capacity utilization rate, mfg., FRB 2 83 Capacity utilization rate mfg BEA2 84 Capacity utilization rate materials FRB2 c.c.c C.C.C C.L.L C.C.C L,C,U LC U A r bil dol do do. . . . 1274.7 1337.3 1347.4 1360.2 1358.3 1038.1 1 0 9 3 . 4 1095.3 1121.0 1122.3 1120.8 1119.1 1127.0 972.3 971.4 978.8 972.3 974.2 947.8 8 9 3 . 3 946.1 .-0.2 -0.1 do 221.8 234.0 235.2 238.7 240.4 238.0 239.9 243.4 0.8 1.5 1.5 1967=100. . . ..do . . do. . . . A.r.,bildol. 129.8 121.7 140.9 580.1 137.1 129.5 148.1 613.1 138.4 131.5 149.2 617.0 139.3 132.8 150.2 624.4 139.5 132.4 150.9 615.9 138.6 130.9 149.8 139.0 131.9 150.6 141.0 134.3 152.2 0.3 0.8 0.5 1.4 1.8 1.1 0.7 1.0 0.7 1.2 Percent do do 80.2 82.4 80.4 81.9 Bil. dol 50.97 35.14 32.56 59.78 38.48 35.27 0.30 1.53 81 83 83.0 82 82. 3 82.9 82 -0.1 82.2 82.2 81.4 58.67 37.46 35.05 64.18 40.23 35.83 66.19 40.53 36.53 63.54 39.22 35.81 66.80 40.88 36.98 68.23 41.50 36.80 0.20 3.29 3.82 3.56 3.73 4.17 5 5 5 0.7 5 0.1 4 7 7 4 -0.3 0.5 -1.4 -0.7 0 NA 0.1 0.2 -0.1 -0.1 NA -0.8 8 3 0 B3. Consumption, Trade, Orders, and Deliveries Orders and Deliveries: L,L,L 6. New orders, durable goods L,L,L 7 New orders durable goods 1972 dollars *8. New orders, cons, goods and mtts., 1972 dol. . UL;L L,L,L 25. Chg. in unfilled orders, durable goods2 L,Lg,U 96 Mfrs ' unfilled orders durable goods5 L.L.L *32 Vendor performance2 ... Consumption and Trade: C,C,C 56 Manufacturing and trade sales *57. Manufacturing and trade sales, 1972 dollars . . c,c,c C,L,C 75. Industrial production, consumer goods C.L.U 54. Sales of retail stores U.UU 59 Sales of retail stores 1972 dollars L.C.C 55, Personal consumption expend., autos L.L.L 58 Index of consumer sentiment @) do do . do. ... Bil. do)., EOP Percent Bil. dol do. . . . 1967=100... Mil dol do. ... A.r., bil. dol. 1 Q 1966=100 5.1 4.2 3.3 0.17 2.1 1.5 -0.5 0.44 9.4 7.4 2.2 3.09 1 6 6 . 4 4 184.83 174.97 184.83 1 9 6 . 2 9 1 8 8 . 4 0 192.12 1 9 6 . 2 9 64 67 62 55 54 55 54 58 2.0 9 2.2 3 5.6 -4 236.62 NA NA 144.17 143.8 146.8 61,692 6 2 , 8 4 7 41,825 4 2 , 4 0 7 3.5 2.7 1.6 3.0 2.4 NA NA 2.1 1.9 1.4 3.7 2.3 0.2 4.4 3.4 1.4 199.77 133.47 136.2 53,542 39,813 55.0 85.4 222.93 141.17 143.4 58,924 41,604 63.9 86.8 223.03 141,04 145.0 58,862 41,187 62.3 87.6 NA 2 2 8 . 6 1 231.39 NA 1 4 0 . 3 7 144.31 144.0 141.5 145.3 61,473 61,471 5 9 , 8 7 5 4 2 , 5 9 1 41,691 4 0 , 8 4 2 63.2 83.1 63.0 82.3 8*3!? 84.' 3 78.* 8* 0*7 -6*5* 135.6 NA NA 0.5 NA NA -5.1 3.1 0.7 2.0 0.53 6.2 8 NA NA -0.9 0.0 -2.1 -0.3 -1.0 2 9 3 5 5 7 5 5 5 5 B4. Fixed Capital Investment Formation of Business Enterprises: *12. Net business formation 13. New business incoroorations L,L,L L,L,L 1967=100... Number. . . . 133.4 117.6 127.4 128.9 31,244 36,509 37,695 38,987 NA 134.9 NA 3 6 , 4 3 1 NA NA 3.5 3.4 NA NA 1 1 Table 1. Summary of Recent Data and Current Changes for Principal Indicators—Continued Series title Timing classifi cation3 Percent change Average Jan, 1977 4th Q 1st Q 1977 1978 Jan. 1978 Pel). Feb. to to Fcb, 1978 Mar. 1978 21.0 11.5 -7.5 14.42 17.88 13.4 17.7 10.9 8.3 -7.1 -1.0 10.82 11.41 11.3 5.5 -0.6 83.03 67.86 71.9 -18.3 1978 1976 1977 15.2 18.2 18.3 19.1 21.41 20.42 22.76 10.8 12.4 12.1 15.2 12.1 14.8 12.4 16.3 13.61 17.36 13.00 16.51 10.70 11.19 68.5 74.28 NA NA Ma'. 1978 s 3dQ to 4th Q 4tri Q to 1st Q 19?? 1978 Series num" Basic data1 Unit of measure I. CYCLICAL INDlCATORS-Con. B4. Fixed Capital Investment— Con. Business Investment Commitments: 1 0. Contracts and orders, plant and equipment . . L,L.l Bil. dol *2Q. Contr, and orders, plant and equip., .....do. ... 1972 do! UL.L do. . . . 24. New orders, cap, goods Indus., nondefense .. L,L,L 27. New orders, capital goods industries, nondedo. ... fonse, 1872 dollars L,L,L 0. Construction contracts, commercial and industrial buildings, floor space L,C,U Mil. sq.ft. .. 1 1. New capital appropriations, mfg U,lg,U Bil. dol 97. Backlog of capital appropriations, rnfg.s C.Lg.Lg Bil. dol., EOF Business Investment Expenditures: 61. Business expend., new plant and equipment . BO. Machinery and equipment sales and business construction expenditures 76. Industrial production business equip. 86. Nonresid. fixed investment, total, 1972 dol. . Residential Construction Commitments and Investment: 28. New private housing units started, total *29. New building permits, private housing 89. Fixed investment, residential, 1972 dol 8.8 10,2 9.8 51.4 12.4 47.5 62.9 16,2 57.2 65.7 17.6 54.2 C,Lg,Lg A.r.,bil.dol. 120.4 137.0 140.3 138.11 1 4 6 . 2 5 do. ... C,Lg,L.g C ( Lg,U 1967-100... C.L8.C A.r., bil. dol. 171.2 195.5 136.3 149. 116.8 126.8 199.9 206.43 153.4 128.9 L.L.L L,L,L L.L.L A.r., thous. . 1967-100... A.r., bil. dol. 1,538 112.2 1,987 144.4 47.7 56.9 1,1,1 do. ... 8.5 L(L(L L.L.,1 L,L,L do. ... do. ... Bil. dol 151. 127.6 2,041 146.7 57. 17.65 57.2 6.0 4.1 2.1 20 24 8.2 4.6 21 4.2 8.3 NA NA 9 11 9? 5.9 61 m 69 76 86 5.7 -1.6 156. 2.3 1.2 2,146 159.5 1,732 134.4 2,07 144. 1.7 1.0 59.9 59.0 1,548 128.9 1,574 130.2 NA NA 1.2 31.8 10.7 10 9.6 5.9 10.3 -0.2 NA 2 0 6 . 0 2 210.84 154.8 152.9 154.8 129.4 12.0 3.2 1.3 1.0 5.1 8.7 4.2 0.9 0.4 -19.3 -.15.7 -1.5 28 2§ 89 BS. Inventories and Inventory investment Inventory Investment: 30. Chg. in business inventories, 1972 dol,2 *36. Change in inventories on hand and on order, 1972 dollars (smoothed6}2 31. Chg. in book value, mfg. and trade invent2 .. 38. Chg. in mtl. stocks on hand and on order2 . . . Inventories on Hand and on Order: 71. Mfg, and trade inventories, total5 *70. Mfg. and trade invent., total, 1972 do!.s 6Ei, Mfrs.' inventories of finished goods* 77. Ratio, inventories to sales, mfg. and trade, constant dollars2 78. Materials and supplies, stocks on hand and on order8 8.10 24.5 0.52 11.8 15.7 11.53 14.34 26.3 0.88 26.4 0.41 8.7 12.19 12.5 0.90 11.3 MA MA NA 11.74 31.2 1.33 9.85 25.0 1.60 NA -1.89 NA -6.2 0.27 m NA NA SA -7.0 2.6 30 -2.15 -13.9 NA WA HA n 0.49 36 38 Lg.Lg.Lg Bil.doUEOP 3 0 6 . 3 2 3 3 2 . 6 4 3 2 9 . 5 1 3 3 2 . 6 4 do. . . . 2 2 5 . 9 0 2 3 6 . 4 7 2 3 5 . 3 6 2 3 6 . 4 7 L.g,lg,Lg do. ... 54.11 58.91 Lg,M3,Lg 57.97 58.91 NA 3 3 5 . 7 6 3 3 8 . 2 5 WA 2 3 7 . 4 4 2 3 7 . 9 6 NA 59.68 S9.57 NA NA N& -0.2 MA &A NA Lg.Lg.Lg Ratio NA 1.65 WA -0.04 NA -0.02 NA 77 NA 1 4 4 . 2 3 1 4 5 . 8 3 NA NA 1.9 WA 78 -0.41 0.6?* 1.6 0.78 -4.2 -4.9 19 tJA PA NA MA MA -2.2 16 18 79 ao ir* n NA NA 34 35 1.3 4.3 63 1.6 2.1 NA 4.3 6li 62 0.1 NA 64 Ug,lg Bil. dol., EOP 1.67 1.65 1.66 1.64 1 3 2 . 4 0 1 4 2 . 9 0 140.21 142.90 1.69 0.7 0.2 1.1 1.0 0. 5 1.6 MA NA m 71 70 65 B6. Prices, Costs, and Profits Sensitive Commodity Prices: *92. Chg. in sensitive prices (smoothed6)2 23. Industrial materials prices® L,L,L U,L,L Percent 1967=100... 1.17 0.69 0.06 0.71 1.49 1.60 1.64 200.7 210.4 203.2 206.5 219.8 219.7 219.9 219.8 Stock Prices: *19. Stock prices, 500 common stocks® LL,L 194143=10. 102.01 98.20 98.05 93.95 89.35 90.25 88.90 88.82 UUL 1,1,1 92.1 67.5 63.3 46.8 102.5 103.6 105.0 71.3 49.5 71.5 79.7 55.4 71.3 71.5 49.0 5.4 123.1 5.3 122.9 5.0 123.7 5.4 122.6 NA NA MA WA NA 119.9 153.5 109.0 166.1 111.5 167.0 111.2 169.0 110.4 NA MA 168.7 179.0 179.7 182.1 189.9 0.890 0.947 154.7 0.949 154.7 0.964 158.0 NA 164.8 76/0 76.0 75.8 75.9 Profits and Profit Margins: 1 6. Corporate profits after taxes 18. Corp. profits after taxes, 1972 dollars ....... 79. Corp. profits after taxes, with 1 VA and CCA . . 00 do in 197? dol 16. Profits (after taxes} per dol. of sales, mfg,2 ... 17. Ratio, price to unit labor cost mfg UUL A.r., bil. dol. .....do. ... do. ... do. , . . Cents 1967=100... Cash Flows: 34. Net cash flow, corporate 35. Net cash flow, corporate, 1072 dollars UUL UUL A.r., bil. do!. . . . .do. , . . UC.I L.C.L UL.L Unit Labor Costs and Labor Share: 63. Unit labor cost, private business sector ...... Lg.Lg.Lg 1967-100... 68. Labor cost (cur, dol.) per unit of gross domestic product (1972), nonfin. corp Lg.Lg.Lg Dollars *Q2. Labor cost per unit of output, mfq Lg.Lg.Lg 1967=100. . . 64. Compensation of employees as percent of national income2 Lg.Lg.Lg 3ercent 145.4 70. 7 1.23 0.04 0.1 -1.4 0.0 -0.2 1.4 -0.3 -10.3 -11.6 0.4 120.1 119.8 119.7 -D.2 -0.1 -0.9 1.2 -0 . 1 163.2 165.0 156.1 1.1 0.7 NA 6.4 92 23 B7. Money and Credit Mooey: 85. Change in money supply {M1 } 2 102, Change in money supply plus time deposits at commercial ba.nks (M2)2 *104. Chg. in total liquid assets (M7) (smoothed6)2 . *1Q5. Money supply (M1), 1972 dollars 108. Money supply (M2), 1972 dollors UUL Percent. . . . 0.50 0.62 0.75 0.51 0.33 D.80 -0.09 0.29 -0.89 0.38 -0.24 -O.ld 35 UC.U . . . .do. . . . . . . .do. . . . Bil. dol ....do. ... 0.90 0.85 0.74 0.93 0.84 0.88 0.58 1.09 0.52 0.92 0.37 0.92 -0.37 -0.11 -0.26 225.0 537.1 0.44 0.81 0.07 223.6 517.1 0.74 1.03 225.5 539.4 226.9 543.9 -0.11 0.21 225.3 542.1 226.8 543.7 -0.06 -0.17 225.2 542.2 224.0 540.3 -0.7 -0.3 -0.5 -0.4 0.6 0.8 -0.7 -0.3 102 104 105 106 Velocity of Money: 107, Ratio, GNP to money supply (Ml} 2 c.c.c 108. Ratio, pers. income to money supply (M2)2 . . C.Lg,C Ratio . . . .do. . , . 5.607 1.965 5.795 1.974 5.816 1.966 5.851 1.994 5.870 2.004 1.998 2.000 2.014 0.002 0.014 0 .019 0.010 107 108 Credit Flows: 33. Change in mortgage debt2 1 1 2. Change in business loans2 113. Change in consumer installment debt2 110. Total private borrowing A.r., bil. dol. ....do. ... . . . .do. . . . . . . .do. . . , 53.34 81.05 85.64 89.97 -4.40 8.68 6.11 9.37 19.98 30.77 29.86 32.86 199.25 279.14 297.80 2 8 7 . 0 4 NA 19.25 MA NA 81.90 11.93 29.09 76.45 24.70 31.93 NA 21.12 NA -5.45 12.77 WA 33 112 113 110 UUL UUL L,L,L UUL UL.L UUL UL.L 0.035 2.84 MA -3.58 NA o . o2a 4.33 3.26 3.0D = 3.6 9.88 MA SA Basic data1 Series title Timing classification3 Unit of measure Percent change Average 1976 Jan. 1977 3dQ 4th Q 1st Q 1977 1977 1978 Jan. 1978 Feb. 1978 Mar. 1978 Feb. to to Feb. 1978 Mar. 1978 3dQ to 4th Q 4th Q to 1st Q 1977 1978 Series number I Table 1. Summary of Recent Data and Current Changes for Principal Indicators —Continued I. CYCLICAL INDICATORS-Con. B7. Money and Credit-Con. Credit Difficulties: 14. Liabilities of business failures (inv.4)® 39. Delinquency rate, instal. loans (inv.4}2 s L,L,L L.L.L Mil.dol Percent, EOP Bank Reserves: 93 Free reserves (inverted4)2© 94. Borrowing from the Federal Reserve2 © L,U,U L,Lg,U Mil.dol do. . . . Interest Rates: 119 Federal funds rate3© 1 14, Treasury bill rate2© 115. Treasury bond yields2© 1 16. Corporate bond yields2® 117. Municipal bond yields2® 118. Mortgage yields, residential2 ® 67. Bank rates on short-term bus. loans2© *109. Average prime rate charged by banks2© Outstanding Debt: 66. Consumer installment debt5 *72. Commercial and industrial loans outstanding, weekly reporting large comm. banks *95. Ratio, consumer install, debt to pers. income2 L,Lg,Lg Percent do. C,Lg,lg do. C,Lg,Lg do. lg,Lg,Lg do. U,Lg,Lg do. Lg,Lg,Lg do. Lg,Lg,Lg do. Lg.Lg.Lg .. . ... .. . ... . .. .. . ... 2 5 0 . 9 4 2 5 7 . 9 4 3 3 7 . 6 9 161.43 2.40 2.36 2.36 2.36 134 84 5.05 5.00 6.78 8.59 6.64 8.82 7.52 6.84 -253 462 5.54 5.26 7,06 8.20 5.68 8.68 7.97 6.82 -434 680 5.82 5.47 6.98 8.10 5.59 8.73 8.02 6.90 -690 906 6.51 6.14 7.16 8.29 5.57 8.82 8.59 7.67 NA NA -161 410 6.76 6.41 7.58 8.70 5.65 NA NA 7.98 NA NA -176 481 6.70 6.45 7.51 8.70 5.71 9.11 NA 7.93 NA NA -272 405 6.78 6.46 7.60 8.70 5.62 NA NA 8.00 NA NA NA NA -36 344 96 -76 6.79 6.32 7.63 8.70 5.61 9.29 NA 8.00 NA Lg,Lg,Lg Bil.dol.,EOP 179.93 210.70 2 0 2 . 4 8 210.70 Lg,Lg,Lg Bil.dol Lg,Lg,Lg Percent 116.36 121.66 122.45 124.97 1 2 8 . 4 4 126.48 128.54 130.30 12.33 12.76 12.91 12.97 1972-100... 1967=100... Percent 1967-100. . . 133.9 170.5 0.4 180.8 141.3 181.5 0.5 192.2 142.2 183.3 0.4 194.2 do. do. do, do. do. 183.0 205.1 189.3 173.2 169.0 194.2 214.3 201.7 184.5 178.9 194.9 207.3 202.8 do. ... 185.0 198.5 200.2 do. do. do. do. 108.5 192.6 113.0 116.5 109.4 109.3 211.3 115.4 120.2 NA 213.12 2 1 5 . 7 8 NA 13.11 13.22 144.2 185.3 0.4 195.9 146.7 188.4 0.7 201.5 187.1 0.8 199.0 197.1 213.0 205.1 190.0 181.8 201.9 199.9 221.6 0.08 0.01 0.09 0.0 -0.09 NA NA 0.07 NA NA -236 -61 0.01 -0.14 0.03 0.0 -0.01 NA NA 0.0 1.2 NA 1.6 1.4 NA NA 0.11 188.4 0.6 201.4 189.7 0.8 -0.2 204.0 203.8 232.4 207.8 202.0 228.7 209.7 193.3 185.9 192.0 184.0 193.3 186.3 211,3 194.5 187.3 204.2 208.9 208.1 208.6 209.9 110.2 215.5 116.2 120.8 110.6 111.0 110.5 110.3 52.2 0.0 NA NA 1 3 -529 -496 9 9 -0.02 0.25 0.27 0.42 0.41 0.08 0.09 0.57 0.77 0.31 11 11 11 11 11 11 6 10 256 226 0.69 0.67 0.18 0.19 NA NA 4.1 NA 6 2.1 2.8 NA 7 9 0.06 II. OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES B. Prices, Wages, and Productivity B1 . Price Movements 310. 320. 320c. 322 330. 331 332 333. 334 Implicit price deflator, GIMP Consumer prices (CPI), all items© Change in CPI, all items, S/A2 CPI, food Wholesale prices (WPI), all commodities®. . . WPI, crude materials WPI, intermediate materials WPI, producer finished goods WPI consumer finished goods ... ... .. . .. . ... 185.4 179.8 227.6 209.6 1.2 0.7 0.2 1.3 1.4 1.1 0.0 0.9 1.7 1.7 0.3 2.9 31 32 32 32 1.1 3.2 0.9 0.7 1.2 0.9 1.6 0.8 0.6 0.5 1.1 2.7 1.1 2.5 1.1 2.4 6.9 2.2 1.7 2.3 33 33 33 33 33 2.0 2.3 34 0.8 2.0 0.7 0.5 0.4 3.2 NA 34 34 34 37 0.7 B2. Wages and Productivity 340, Average hourly earnings, production workers, private nonfarm economy 341 . Real average hourly earnings, production workers, private nonfarm economy 345. Average hourly compensation, nonfarm bus. . . 346. Real avg. hourly cornp., nonfarm business .,, 370. Output per hour, private business sector ... .. . .. . ... 209.6 115.4 119.3 0.2 -0.5 0.6 -0.2 222.4 NA 119.7 -0.9 C. Labor Force, Employment, and Unemployment 441 . 442. 37. 444. 445. 446. Labor 451 452. 453 Total civilian labor force Total civilian employment Number of persons unemployed Unemployed males, 20 years and over Unemployed females, 20 years and over Unemployed persons, 16-19 years of age Thousands. . do. ... do. . . . do, . . . do. . . . do. ... Force Participation Rates: Males, 20 years and over 2 Females, 20 years and over 2 Both sexes, 16-19 years of age2 9 4 , 7 7 4 9 7 , 4 0 1 9 7 , 5 5 9 9 8 , 6 2 2 9 9 , 2 0 5 99,107 9 9 , 0 9 3 99,414 8 7 , 4 8 5 9 0 , 5 4 6 9 0 , 8 2 3 9 2 , 0 6 9 9 3 , 0 5 0 92,881 93,003 93,266 7,288 6,554 6,855 6,736 6,155 6,148 6,226 6,090 3,041 2,727 2,594 2,522 2 , 4 2 4 2 , 4 8 0 2,383 2,409 2,546 2,487 2,498 2,461 2,153 2,247 2 , 0 8 5 2,127 1,701 1,642 1,643 1,570 1,578 1,499 1,622 1,612 Percent do. ... do. . . . 79.8 47.0 54.6 79.7 48.1 56.2 79.4 48.2 56.6 79.9 48.6 57.0 79.9 49.0 56.7 80.0 48.9 56.9 79.8 48.9 56.5 79.9 49.1 56.7 A.r.,bil.dol. do. . . . do. . . . do. . . . do. ... do. ... -54.0 386.3 446.3 -49.5 264.7 246.2 18.4 294.4 265.2 29.2 NA 451.6 NA NA 280.1 NA Mil.dol do. . . . Bil. do! A.r.,bil.dol. 8,998 4,096 2.48 86.8 0.0 0.1 -2.2 -3.9 -7,2 8.2 -0.2 0.0 -0.4 0.3 0.3 1.0 1.1 2.0 -0.6 0.1 0.2 0.2 1.1 1.4 -2.7 -2.8 -1.5 -4.4 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.6 1.1 -6.1 -3.9 -12.5 0.5 0.0 0.4 -0.3 44 44 3 44 44 44 45 45 45 D. Government Activities D1. Receipts and Expenditures 501 . Federal Government receipts 502. Federal Government expenditures 500, Federal Government surplus or deficit2 51 1 . State and local government receipts 512. State and local government expenditures 510 State and local govt. surplus or deficit2 332.3 386.3 373.9 423.4 373.2 432.1 -58.9 301.6 -60.0 307.1 268.7 32.9 276.0 31.1 3.5 3.3 -1.1 1.8 2.7 -1.8 NA 1.2 NA NA 1.5 NA 50 50 50 51 51 51 NA NA -16.1 0.7 51 52 54 56 3.3 NA NA 6.8 NA NA 60 60 60 61 61 61 D2. Defense Indicators 516. 525 548. 564. Defense Department obligations, total Military prime contract awards in U.S New orders, defense products National defense purchases 9,840 9 , 7 2 3 10,117 4,571 4,501 5,183 2.87 94.3 2.23 95.6 4.09 98.5 NA 10,641 10,413 NA 4 , 5 4 9 3,981 3.43 99.2 3.07 2.78 NA NA 4.44 -2.1 -12.5 -9.4 NA NA 59.7 4.1 15.2 83.4 3.0 E. U.S. International Transactions E1 . Merchandise Trade 602. 604. 606. 612 614. 616. Exports, total except military aid Exports of agricultural products Exports of nonelectrical machinery General imports, total Imports of petroleum and products Imports of automobiles and parts Mil.dol. do. do. do. do. do. ... .. . ... .. . ... . .. 9 , 5 7 2 10,101 10,365 1,925 1,838 1,985 1,852 1,947 1,909 9 , 9 5 2 1 0 , 2 8 3 10,014 1,840 1,801 NA NA NA NA 9 , 9 2 2 10,912 NA NA NA NA 1 0 , 0 4 4 1 2 , 3 0 7 1 2 , 4 4 4 1 2 , 6 5 0 13,508 1 2 , 3 9 3 1 4 , 4 3 9 13,693 2,658 3,462 3,440 3,370 NA NA NA NA 1,096 1,323 1,357 1,457 NA NA NA NA -0.9 NA NA 16.5 NA NA 10.0 NA NA -5.2 NA NA -4.0 -5.5 -5.7 1.7 -2.0 7.4 Table 1. Summary of Recent Data and Current Changes for Principal Indicators -Continued Basic data1 Unit of measure Series title Average Percent change 4th Q IstQ 2dQ 3dQ 4th Q IstQ 1976 1977 1977 1977 1977 1978 1975 1976 1977 26,772 24,511 2,261 4,332 2,844 36,900 32,860 4,041 28,674 31,004 -2,330 5,342 2,890 40,817 39,918 899 30,118 37,928 -7,810 6,235 3,251 44,140 47,993 -3,853 29,711 33,305 -3,594 5,421 2,997 42,243 42,580 1202.1 1528.8 1212.0 1084.4 857.3 5,629 4,014 1274.7 1706.5 1266.2 1185.8 890.3 5,923 4,137 1337.3 1889.6 1325.5 1309.2 930.9 6,167 4,293 1287.4 1755.4 1289.2 1222.6 901.5 5,965 4,177 & 2<J Q to 3dQ 3dQ to 4th Q 4th Q to IstQ 1977 1977 1978 § 1 II, OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES-Con. E2. Goods and Services Movements Except Transfers Under Military Grants 818, 020. 62?, 881. 65?. B68. 669. 607. Merchandise exports Merchandise imports Merchandise trade balance2 Income on U.S. investments abroad Income on foreign investment in the U.S Exports of goods and services Imports of goods and services Balance on goods and services2 Mil. dol ... do do do do . . . . do do do -337 29,457 36,606 -7,149 6,074 2,887 43,015 46,133 -3,118 30,655 38,309 -7,654 6,599 3,160 44,960 48,320 -3,360 30,870 38,429 -7,559 6,391 3,225 45,447 48,436 -2,989 29,490 38,369 -8,879 5,876 3,733 43,136 49,082 -5,946 1311.0 1810.8 1301.2 1252.4 908.4 6,064 4,202 1330.7 1869.9 1317.5 1292.5 924.5 6,143 4,268 1347.4 1915.9 1331.8 1323.8 934.4 6,207 4,305 1360.2 1961.8 1351.5 1368.3 9!>5.8 6,253 4,394 NA NA NA ' NA NA NA NA NA 0.7 -4.5 0.3 -0.2 95 - 1 , 3 2 0 -3.2 -8.1 2.1 15.8 -5.1 1.1 0.2 1.3 371 - 2 , 9 5 7 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA 618 620 622 651 652 663 669 667 A. National Income and Product A1. GNPand Personal Income SO. 200. 213. 224 22S. 217. 227. GNP in 1Q72 dollars GNP in current dollars Final sales, 1972 dollars Disposable personal income, current dollars . . . Disposable personal income, 1872 dollars Per capita GNP in 1972 dollars Per capita disposable pers. income, 1972 dol. . . A.r.bil dol . . . . do .do do .. do A.r., dollars do 1358.3 1992.9 1346.9 1400.5 958,9 6,234 4,401 1.3 2.5 1,1 2.4 1.1 1.0 0.9 1.0 2.4 1.5 3.4 2.3 0.7 2.1 0.7 2.3 3.7 3.1 1.0 3.3 4,7 3.8 2.5 -0.1 1.6 -Q.3 2.4 0.3 -0.3 0.2 50 200 213 224 225 217 227 A2, Personal Consumption Expenditures 231. 233 238 239 230 232 236 237 Total, 1072 dollars Durable cjoods 1972 dollars Nondurable goods, 1972 dollars Services 1972 dollars Total current dollars Durable goods current dollars. Nondurable qeods, current dollars Services, current dollars A.r., bil. dol .do ... . . . do . . . . do do , do .do ... do 775.1 821..3 861.2 839.8 850.4 854.1 860.4 879.8 879.2 112.7 127.5 138.2 130.7 136.9 137.9 136.5 141.6 137.6 307.6 321.6 * 3 3 3 . 7 329.4 329.7 330.0 332.4 342.7 339.2 354.8 372.2 389.2 379.7 383.8 391.4 386.3 395.5 402.3 9 8 0 . 4 1 0 9 4 . 0 1211.2 1139.0 1 1 7 2 . 4 1194.0 1218.9 1 2 5 9 . 5 1 2 8 4 . 0 132.9 158.9 179.8 166.3 177.0 178.6 177.6 186.0 184.0 409.3 442.7 480.7 474.4 458.8 466.6 481.8 499.9 505.8 438.2 492.3 550.7 513.9 541.1 528.8 559.5 573.7 594.3 -1.0 0.7 1.3 2.1 -0.6 1.6 3.4 -0.1 -2.8 -1.0 1.7 1.9 -1.1 1.2 3.6 231 233 238 239 230 232 236 237 A3. Gross Private Domestic Investment ?41 243 30 240. 242. 245. Total* 1972 dollars .. Total fixed investment 1972 dollars Change in business inventories, 1972 do!.2 . . . Total, current dollars Total fixed investment, current dollars Chg. in bus. inventories, current dol.2 do do . . do . . . do do do 141.6 151.5 -9.9 189.1 200.6 -11.5 173.0 164.5 8.5 243.3 230.0 195.5 183.7 169.2 171.0 11.8 -1.8 294.2 276.1 13.3 264.4 197.2 184.0 200.8 185.1 13.2 15.7 243.4 244.3 186.7 177.0 9.7 271.8 258.0 294.9 273.2 18.2 -0.9 13.8 271.1 101.4 169.7 395.0 145.4 249.6 264.6 263.3 97.1 97.0 167.5 370.0 134.2 235.8 166.4 374.9 136.3 238.5 96.9 83.1 13.8 96.9 86.3 10.6 199.7 188.4 303.6 280.0 197.5 188.7 8.7 306.7 293.2 21.7 23.6 13.5 270.0 101.1 168.9 390.6 143.6 247.0 274.0 103.3 170.7 400.9 148.1 252.9 98.5 89.1 99.8 87.6 12.2 16.5 1.8 0.6 2.3 3.0 2.5 1.9 1.0 4.7 -10.1 277.0 104.2 172.8 413.8 153.8 260.0 274.9 102.1 172.8 417.1 153.1 264.1 1.5 2.2 1.1 2.6 3.1 2.4 1,1 0.9 1,2 3.2 3.8 2,8 94.8 88.9 97.1 92.6 5.9 170.6 188.8 -18.2 4.5 178.3 200.8 -22.6 11.3 314.4 297.9 -1.6 1.9 -7.0 1.1 -0.2 2,6 2.5 1.6 3.0 241 243 30 240 242 245 A4. Government Purchases of Goods and Services ?61 2B3, 267 2RO 262 286. Total, 1972 dollars Federal Government, 197? dollars State and local governments, 1972 dollars Total eutfsnt dollars .... Fodoral Government, current dollars , , State and local governments, current dollars . . . .. do do do do do do ... 263.0 96.7 96.5 166.3 338.9 123.3 215.6 167.9 361.4 130.1 231.2 89.9 67.4 22.5 95.8 79.8 16.0 147.3 126.9 162.9 155.1 7.8 -0.8 -2.0 0.0 0.8 -0.5 1.6 261 263 267 260 262 263 AS. Foreign Trade 256. 257, 256. 252 263. 250. Exports of goods and services, 1972 dollars . . , Innportsof goodsandssrviees, 1972 dollars ... Net exports of goods and serv., 1972 dol.2 Exports of goods and services, current do! Imports of goods and services, current dol. . . , Wet exports of pods and sfirv., current dol.2 . . . do do do do do do . 20.4 97.5 88.0 9.5 174.7 185.6 -10.9 168.5 165.6 3.0 170.4 178.6 9.4 178.1 187.7 179.9 187.4 -8.2 -9.7 -7,5 1.3 -1.7 2.8 1.0 -0.2 2.2 -5.0 1.5 -$.3 -5.2 0,7 -10.7 2.4 4.2 -1.4 4.5 6.4 -4.4 256 25? 255 as2 253 250 A6. National Income and Its Components 22Q 280 282. 286. 284. 288. National income . . . . Compensation of employees Proprietors' income with IVA and CCA . Corporate profits with IVA and CCA Rental income of persons with CCA Net interest do do do . do do . . . d0 1217.0 1 3 6 4 . 1 1 5 2 0 . 5 1 4 0 2 . 1 1 4 5 0 . 2 1 5 0 5 . 7 1 5 4 0 . 5 1 5 8 5 . 7 NA 9 3 0 . 3 1 0 3 6 . 3 1156.3 1 0 7 4 . 2 1109.9 1 1 4 4 . 7 1167.4 1 2 0 3 . 3 1 2 4 2 . 5 86.0 88,0 98.2 88.7 95.1 95.5 97.0 105.0 102.4 99.3 128.1 125.4 139.8 123.1 140.2 149.0 144.8 NA 22.3 79.1 23.3 88.4 25.3 100.9 24.1 92.0 24.5 95.3 24.9 98.9 25.5 26.4 26.9 103.1 106.1 109.4 2.3 2.0 -1.5 2.9 3.1 9.9 6.3 2.4 4.2 -2.8 2.6 6.1 7.0 -11.1 0.2 -1.2 -1.4 3.5 2.9 NA 1.9 3.1 220 280 282 286 284 288 NA NA 8.5 NA 0.3 290 295 292 298 293 NA 3.3 -2.5 A7. Saving ?90, 295 292. 290. ?93 Gross saving (private and govt ) Business savintj Personal saying Government surplus or deficit2 Personal saving rato 3 do do . . . do .. . . . do . . . Percent 195.1 179.2 237.0 206.6 273.5 226.5 232.2 205.3 251.4 211.5 277.2 223.6 284.5 237.2 281.0 233.8 80.2 65.9 67.3 56.3 51.4 68.5 73.3 76.1 -64.3 7.4 -35.6 5.6 -20.3 5.1 -29.4 4.6 -11.5 4.1 -14.9 5.3 -26.0 3.5 -28.9 5.6 NA NA 82.6 NA 5.9 3.8 -2.9 0.1 NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except tor those indicated by <§>, which appear to contain no seasonal movement. Series indicated by an asterisk (*) are included in the major composite indexes. Dollar values are in current dollars flnless otherwise specified. For complete series titles (including composition of the composite indexes) and sources, see 'Titles and Sources of Series" at the back of BCD. NA ° not available, a ° anticipated EQP - end of period. A.r. - annual rate. S/A = seasonally adjusted fused for special emphasis}. IVA = inventory valuation adjustment. CCA = capital consumption adjustment. NIA =• national income accounts. 1 For a few series, data shown here have been rounded to fewer digits than those shown elsewhere in BCD. Annual figures published by the source agencies are used if available. 3 Differences rather than percent changes are shown for this series. 'The three-part timing code indicates the timing classification of the series at peaks, at troughs, and at all turns: L = leading; C = roughly coincident; Lg = lagging; U = unclassified. 4 Inverted series. Since this series tends to move counter to movements in general business activity, signs of the changes are reversed. s Knd'Of'poriod series. The annual figures (and quarterly figures for monthly series) are the last figures for the period. 6 This series is a weighted 4-term moving average (with weights 1, 2, 2, 1) placed at the terminal month of the span. 10 CYCLICAL !A I COMPOSITE INDEXES AND THEIR COMPONENTS Chart Al. Composite Indexes P .) (fe.) t T 150- Index of twelve leading indicators (series 1, 3, 8, 12, 18( 20, 29, 32, 36, 92, 104r 105) _ -„ -4 , ^ 130120- ttH 100* SCs-2 920. Index of four roughly coincident indicators (series 41,47,51,57) 930, Index of six lagging indicators (series 62, 70, 72, 91,95,109) SO8370- 60- +3 ^V 50- +5 194S 40 S0 §1 52 S3 g4 S^ g§ S7 it gf it 03 NOTE: Numbers entered on the chart indicate length of leads (-) and lags (+) in months from reference turning dates. Current data for these series are shown on page 59. BCII APRIL 1978 11 CYCLICAL AI COMPOSITE INDEXES AND THEIR COMPONENTS—Con. Chart Al. Composite Indexes—Con. !P P T T 913. Marginal emploperrt adjustments (series 12,3,5) -9 A/^X/ -1 V -2 , ^CO- 915. Inventory investment and purchasing (series 8,32,36,92) 916. Prafitafcility (series 17, 19, 88) -n ll -11 -»- -4 \/ -"2 -10 917. Mooey art fimtcial flows (siries 104, 1057110) ZE. 940. Ratf0t coificident index to lagging index HJ 49 S@ 81 62 SB S4 SS SS §7 gi gf i@ il ig ©3 ©4 ( NOTE: Number* entered on the chart Indicate length of leads (-) and lags ( + } In months from reference turning dates. Current data for these lerles are shown on page 59. 12 APRIL 1978 BCII COMPOSITE INDEXES AND THEIR COMPONENTS—Con. Chart A2. Leading Index Components (Nov.)(0ct) P T P T (Aug.)(Apr.) (Aj>r.)(FeS>.) F T P T f T 1. Average workweek, production workers, manufacturing (tours) 8. few nnterc far Bimsiimur gnnib and matPfiak 1977 frillarc fhil rinl ^ [LLLl 32. Vendor performance, percent reporting slower deliveries 1948 49 m il m S3 §4 g§ g§ S^ 5 76 77 1978 Current data for these series are shown on pages 60, 63, 64, and 65. ItCII APRIL 1978 13 CYCLICAL COMPOSITE INDEXES AND THEIR COMPONENTS—Con. Chart A2. Leading Index Components—Con. 9Q HAW hnilriino Ntrntik nrivM* hnucinv unite (Mw- 19fi7r1«n M 36. Net change in inventories on fiaftd art on order. 1972 dollars, smoothed1 (ann. rate. HI. dol.) 92. Change in sensitive prices, smoothed1 (percent) 19. Stock prices, 500 common stocks (index: 1941-43=10) 104. Change in total liquid assets, smoothed1 (percent) 105. Money supply--M1--in 1972 dollars (bil. dol.) 49 SI it 63 §4 S§ S6 71 72 J3 74 7® 'This series li a weighted 4-term moving average (with weights 1,2,2,1) placed on the terminal month of the span. Current data for these series are shown on pages 66, 67, 68, and 70. 14 APRIL 1978 BCII CYCLICAL INDiCATORS [A I 1 COMPOSITE INDEXES AND THEIR COMPONENTS—Con. ' Chart A3. Coincident Index Components (Nov.) (Oct.) P T (JulyXMay) P T (Aug.)(Apr.) P T (Dee.) (Mow.) P T (Apr.)(Feb.) P T (Nov.) (Mar.) f T 9085- 75- 41. Employees on nonagricdltural payrolls (mtilions) 150140- 57. ManufactoriBg and trade sales^ 1972 dollars (bil. dol.) 110100^ 70- 60- 1948 49 50 Si 52 S3 S4 ii SS 57 67 68 7S 7@ 77 1978 Current data for these series are shown on pages 61, 62, and 64. BCII APRIL 1978 15 CYCLICAL A] COMPOSITE INDEXES AND THEIR COMPONENTS—Con. Chart A4. Lagging Index Components (Nov.) (Oct.) P T (July) (May) P T A (G>GC.)(Nev.) P T F T P T 91. Average fcratiofl of unenglopeflt (weeks-inverted scale) 12- ,«? H 70. Manatactnrine and trade invMtones, 1ST? Jillari (hil rtnl) j| i]S- 1 m<= 62. Labof cost per unit of output, manufacturing (index: 1967=100) . Average prime rate 95. Ratio, consumer installment debt to personal income (percent) 1948 49 50 SI §2 SS g4 SB Currant data for those »«rfas ar« shown on pag«« 61, 67, 69, and 72, 16 APRIL 1978 BCII B CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS Chart Bl. Employment and Unemployment P P T (Dec.) (Nov.) P I T (Now.) f (Mar.) T [Marginal Employment Adjustments] production workers, manufarturing (hours) 21. Average weekly overtime hours, production workers, manufacturing (hours) 2. Accession rate, Manufacturing (per 100 employees) I 5. Average weekly initial claims, State unemployment insurance (thousands—inverted scale) 200- 400- 3. Layoff rate, manufacturing (per 100 employees—inverted scale) 23- 4. Quit rate, manufacturing (per 100 employees) 2- ii55 Si 57 58 59 S© S ©S §7 77 78 1979 Current data for these series are shown on page 60. ItCII APRIL 1978 17 CYCLICAL INDICATORS B I CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS--Con. Chart Bl. Employment and Unemployment—Con. (Aug.) (Apr.) P (Apr,) (Fet) P T I P (Nov.) P T (Mar.) I fifl Ratin hfiln-wanted advertising to number U l 0.8- 0.4- 0.0150- 46, Help-wanted advertising (InJfiX: 13B7^ 125- - BJl 100- 7S- 170- |Comprehensive Employment| 100- 1SQ- 48. Employee-hours in nonagricultural establishments <m rate' b'l. 140- 130- 85908S80- in nonagricultural activities (millions) 70- ^ 41. Employees on nonagriculdral payrolls ("'"ions) JTZtL 2,1- ^2- ^>^_J, . tf.-_ Fmplffiyp^s in gnnri<:-pr^Huning jfifl|i<;trj^ 21- manufacturing, constriction (millions) 20- 19§5 §6 57 §6 S9 60 SI 62 @3 64 6§ 66 88 89 7© 71 72 73 74 7S 7$ 77 78 1979 Current data for these lerles are shown on pages 60 and 61. 18 APRIL 1978 BCD CYCLICAL B I INDICATORS CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Con. Chart Bl. Employment and Unemployment—Con. (Ayg.)(Apr.) P (Apr.) (Feb.) T P (Dec.) (Nov.) P T T [Comprehensive Employment—Con.I I (Nov.) P (Mar.) T i 58- 90. Ratio, civilian employment to total population, working age (percent)" Jr 54 - Comprehensive Unemployment 2T 37. Number unemployed, total (millions-inverted scale) PP1 4- 567- 43.. UnempJopent rate.,Mai (perceM-JMerteiscale) 5- 45. Average weekly insured unemployment rate (percent-inverted scale) 91. Average duration of unemployment (weeks-inverted scale) 1955 5S S? 58 59 @0 il 62 S3 SS @7 68 75 Current data for these series are shown on page 61. KCII APRIL 1978 19 B CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS-Con. Chart B2. Production and Income [Comprehensive Output and Income| 50. GNP in 1972 dollars, 0 (ann. rate, Ml. 52. Personal income in 1972 dollars (am. rate, bil. dol.) 51. Personal income less transfer payments, 1972 dollars (ann. rate, bil. del.) _ Wages and salaries in mining, manufacturing, and construction, 1972 dollars (ann. rate, bil. dol.)* ©a <sg Current data for theie series are shown on page 62. 20 APRIL 1978 ltd) B I CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS-Con. Chart B2. Production and Income—Con. (ABg.)(Apr.) (Apr.) (Feb.) I Industrial Production] 47. 73. Industrial production, durable manufactures (index: 1967-100) [ Capacity Utilization | 83. Rate of capacity utilization, manufacturing (BEA), Q (percent) 82. Rate of capacity utilization, manufacturing (FRB), Q (percent) 84. Rate of capacity utilization, materials, B (percent! is i? sa st g® d£ ® Current data for these series are shown on pages 62 and 63. KCII APRIL 1978 21 CYCLICAL INDICATORS B CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Con. Chart B3. Consumption, Trade, Orders, and Deliveries (Aug.) (Apr.) F T (Dee.) (Nov.) P T (Apr.) (Feb.) P I (Nov.) P I Orders and Deliveries | 7. Hew orders, durable goods industries, 1972 dollars (bil. dol.) -H 30- 20 J orifers, curable goods industries, current dollars (bil. dol.) rrrn 4940- goods aid materials, W 35- 3020- 25. Change in unfilled orders, durable gwds industries (bil. dol.; MCD moving avg.-4-terra) 5 96. Manufacturers' unfilled orders, durable goods industries (bil, dot.) ra "T2TTelor"p§r!drmancer percent ot companies reporting slower deliveries ss Current data for these tories are shown on page 63. 22 APRIL 1978 BCII CYCLICAL INDICATORS B CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Con. Chart B3. Consumption, Trade, Orders, and Deliveries—Con. (Aug.) (Apr.) P T (Dee.) (Nov.) P T (Apr.) (Feb.) P T (Nov.) (Mar.) P T 260-1 240220- | Consumption and Trade]; 200- J, X 180160- 56. Manufacturing and trade sales, current dollars (fail. doD- 140120100- 57. Manufacturing and trade sales, | 1972 dollars (Ml. Jol.)|i 75. Industrial production, consumer goods (index 54. Sales of retail stores, ciibnt dollars (bil. 59. Sales of retail stores, 1972 dollars (tail, dol.) 55. Personal consumption expenditures, automobiles, fl (ann, rate.7 bil. dol.) consumer sentiment, Q (1st Q 1966=100) 1955 56 ItCII 57 APRIL 58 1978 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 1979 23 B I CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Con. Chart B4. Fixed Capital Investment (Aug.) (Apr.) F T (Dec.) (Nov.) P T (Apr.) (Fab.) P I (Nov.) P (Mar. T [Formation of Business Enterprises 12. Net business formation (index: 1967=100 111 13. New business incorporations (thousands) Business Investment Commitments 20. Contracts and orders for plant and 1972 dollars (bit, dol.) current dollars (bil. dol.) 27. Manufacturers' new orders, capital goods industries; nondefense, 1972 dollars (bil. dol.) 24. Manufacturers' new orders, capital goods industries noffliefense, current dollars (bil. dol 9. Construction contracts, commercial and industrial ^ es gj B§ m 00 si §a ss §4 m m @j m ®s m 71 j% 73 ?^ : 'This Is a copyrighted series used by permission; It may not be reproduced without written permission from McGraw-Hill Information Systems Company, F.W. Dodge Dlvfslo Current data for these series are shown on pages 64 and 65. 24 APRIL 1978 ItCII CYCLICAL B | CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Con. Chart B4. Fixed Capital Investment—Con. (Aug.) (Apr.) (Apr.) (Fab.) P T P I (Dec.) (Nov.) P T (Now.) P (Mar.) T iU™ [Business investment Commitments— Con.l , r A 18- is- / J\ *J 11, Hew capital appropriations, manufacturing, tt (Ml. dul.)' i! iM&yJ iv| N/ V f 141210- f 8- /X A / iu / 5040- 97. Backlog of capital appropriations, manufacturing, 1 (bil. d.l.)' 30- 20- !OU« 160- •** 61. Business expenditures, new ; plant and equipment, J ^ .^^^^ n 140120« 100- 1C.U.UI ^ _x^*^^ nll- Business::Investment Expenditures 220200180160140120- 69. Machinery and equipment sales and business construction expenditures (ann. rate, bil. ttol.) * 10080200^ 180« 160140120- 76. Industrial production, business equipment (index: 1987=100) 10080- 6IJ- 1959 56 57 58 59 @0 SI 62 S3 64 65 86 67 68 69 7© 71 J2 73 74 75 76 77 78 1979 'This is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from The Conference Board. Current data for these series are shown on pages 65 and 66. HCII APRIL 1978 25 CYCLICAL INDICATORS B I CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS-Con. Chart B4. Fixed Capital Investment—Con. (Aug.) (Apr,) P I (Apr.) (Feb.) P T (Dee.) (Now.) P T [Business Investment Expfoditures-CorT] 160140- NonresMMtiil fixed investment, 1972 dollars, 0 (ann. rate, bil. dol.) 120- 86. Total, Q 100- ^SW. Producers' durable epipnett, Q 10- [Residential Construction Commitments and Investment] 2.8-1 2.4* 2.22.0-1 28. New private housing units started, total (ann. rate, millions) ; Fuji 29. New building permits, private housing units (index: 1967=100) 70- Residential fixed investment, total, 1972 dollars, Q (ann. rate, lit. fclT fccn 80- so- \ 40- V SS 57 58 59 60 8 62 S3 64 $S 6S §7 6® Si 70 71 73 74 75 77 78 Current data for these series are shown on page 66. 26 APRIL 1978 BCII B I CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Con. Chart B5. Inventories and Inventory Investment [inventory Investment[ 30. Change in business inventories, 1972 dollars, Q (ann. rate, bil. dol «£ M 36. Net change in inventories on hand and on order, 1972 dollars_ (ann. rate, bil. dol.; moving avg.-4-temt1) 31. Change in book value, manufacturing and trade inventories (ann. rate, bil. do).; MCD moving avg.-5-term) V^K^: /^A j^&^f - Vf ^ r f 'W^~ 4-4« 38. Change in stocks of materials and supplies on band and m orderjiifg._ (Ml. dol.; MCD moving avg.»4-terra) *£• +2*t- a-i-2-3i. 1.9S5' SS 5-7 s^ §^oS' Svi' &1> ®^ S3*- &$• S3> &{> ®# S§* 1 Thls series is a weighted 4-term moving average (with weights 1,2,2,1) placed on the terminal month of the span. Current data for these series are shown on page 67. IICII APRIL 1978 27 CYCLICAL B I CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Con. Chart B5. Inventories and Inventory Investment—Con. f (Bee.) (Nov.) P I I 480-, I Inventories on Hand and on Order! 300* 70. Book value, manufacturing and trade inventories, 1972 dollars (Ul. dol.) \ 71. Book valoe, manufacturing ^ trade inventories, current dollars (Ml. dol.) ||a|0.Ul 70-] 656095SO45- 7 65. Book value of manufacturers' inventories. finished goods (bil. dol.) | Lgtlg,Lg| 25- 77. Ratio, deflated inventories to sales, manufacturing and trade (ratio) 1.8 1.71.6- 14I 78. Stocks of materials and supplies on hand and on order, mfg. (bil. dol.) 19SS 57 BS 59 SI 62 S3 71 120 / / 72 100- 74 75 77 78 Current data for these series are shown on page 67. 28 APRIL 1978 ItCII CYCLICAL INDICATORS B CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS-Con. _ Chart B6. Prices, Costs, and Profits (Aug.) (Apr.) P T (Apr.) (Feb.) P T .) P (Mar.) T [Sensitive Commodity Prices [ 92. Change in sensitive prices (percent; moving avg.-4-term1) 19. Stock prices, 500 common stocks (index: 1941-43-10) | Profits and Profit Margins 18. Corporate profits after taxes, 1972 dollars, Q (ann. rate, bil. dol.) 16. Corporate profits after taxes, current dollars 0 (ann. rate, bil. dol. Corporate profits after taxes with fVA and CCA, 1972 dollars, Q (ann. rate, bil. dol.) iMl \ norporaletrafilslfler taxes wilh IVA and CCA, current dollars, a (ann. rate, bil. dol.) L,C,L 1955 §6 SJ §8 59 62 72 73 74 75 76 77 7S 1979 'This series is a weighted 4-term moving average (with weights 1,2,2,1) placed on the terminal month of the span. Current data for these series are shown on page 68. ItCII APRIL 1978 29 CYCLICAL CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Con. Chart B6. Prices, Costs, and Profits—Con. •? <? 7 TT | Profits and Profit Margins— Con. | 22. Ratio, MfMfate profits (after taxes) to total corporate domestic iftconu, Q (percwt) 81. Ratio, corporate profits (after taxes) with inventory valuation and capital consumotion adiustments to total corporate domestic income, 0 (percent) 15. Profits (after taxes) per dollar of sales, all manufacturing corporations. Q (cents) 17. Ratio, price to unit labor cost, manufacturing (index.-1967=100) 35. Net cash flow, corporate, 1972 dollars, S (ann. rate, bil. dol.) 34. Net cash flow, corporate, current dollars, Q (ann. rate, HI. dol.) 1995 56 S7 Si ii 6© 31 il Current data for these lories are shown on pages 68 and 69. 30 APRIL 1978 BCD CYCLICAL INDICATORS B I CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Con. Chart B6. Prices, Costs, and Profits—Con. (Apr.) (Feb.) P I (Aug.) (Apr.) P T (Dec.) (Nov.) P T (Nov.) P (Mar.) T 200-1 190- Unit Labor Costs and Labor Share 180170180- J 190- L 140- B3. Unit labor cost, private business sector, fl (index: 1967=100) 130- 120- 110- 1.05- IV 1.00O.S50,90 - 0.850.80- L OJ5- 7 68. Labor cost (current dollars) per unit of gross domestic product (1972 dollars), nonfinancial corporations, u (dollars) 0.700.65-1 62, Labor cost per unit of output, manufacturing (index: 1967=100) 64. Compensation of employees as a percent of national income, Q (percent) 75- 1955 56 57 58 5S $0 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 1979 Current data for these series are shown on page 69. APRIL 1978 31 CYCLICAL INDICATORS CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Con. Chart B7. Money and Credit (Aug.) (Apr.) P T (Apr.) (Feb.) F T P (Mov.) P T (Mar.) T 85. Change in money supply-demand deposits oltis currency (Ml) (percent; MCD moving avg.-6-term) , * +1.2« +0.8- - t +8.4- i,v ^f I/M 0.0- +I.ST 102. Change in money supply plus time deposits at commercial banks (M2) (percent; MCD moving avg.-6-term) - ^ 40.400- 104. Change in total liquid assets (percent: moving avg.-4-term1) +1.J?-»0.8- ^04- 105. Money supply«M1»in 1972 dollars (bil. dol.) rmj ^s^^^ m/"~*^ ,S ^^\ v s^**s^ ^ ^^Xx^-^-^^v 3 ^xx^^ SCO- 106. Money supply-M2--in 1972 dollars (bil. dol.) 449- 107. Ratio,JNIPto money supply Ml, Q (ratio) 1055 56 57 58 Si i4 SS SS 70 74 J§ 'This *er!ei it a weighted 4-term mowing average (with weights 1,2,2,1) placed on the terminal month of the span. Current data for these series are shown on page 70, 32 APRIL 1978 BCII CYCLICAL B I CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Con. Chart B7. Money and Credit—Con. (Aug.) (Apr.) P I (Apr.) (Fab.) P T (Dec.) (Nov.) P T (Nov.) P (Mar.) T [Credit Flows 33. Change in mortgage debt (ann. rate, bil. dol.) full 112. Change in bank loans to businesses (ann. rate, bil. dol.; MCD moving avg.-6-term) 113. Change in consumer installment debt (ann. rate, bil. dol.) XL -10-1 400-1 350- 300« 110. Total private borrowing, Q (ann. rate, bil. dol.f fjj 250- ^ A \/ 200- J^ V ^S>V^ !: . 150- 100- ;i 50-J 1955 §6 S7 S2 63 64 69 66 67 70 .71 73 74 7§ 76 77 78 1979 Current data for these series are shown on pages 70 and 71. BCII APRIL 1978 33 CYCLICAL CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS^-Con. Chart B7. Money and Credit—Con. (Aug.) (Apr.) P T {Beg,} (Nov.) (Apr.) (Feb.) P T P T [Credit Difficulties | 14. Liabilities of business failures (mil. doL-inverted scale; HCD moving avg.-6-terml _ ^J4-jM-i^- H I 39. Deliquency rate, 30 days and over, consumer installment loans (percent-inverted scale) SI2r525££ [Bank Reserves! 93. Free reserves (bit. do!.--inverted scale) 94. Member bank borrowing from the Federal Reserve (bil. dol.) 195§ 96 §7 §8 89 6@ I §4 Si §§ it 70 n Current data for these teries are shown on page 71. 34 APRIL 1978 ItCII CYCLICAL Bl CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS-Con, Chart B7. Money and Credit—Con. (Aug.) (Apr.) P T (Apr.) (Feb.) P I (Dec.) (Wow.) P T (Mm.) P (Mar.) T 119. Federal funds rate (percent)-^ 114. Treasuryjjill rate (percent) C,Lg, 116. Corporate bond yields (percent)—^ ; , mmac. ....LiL'.iiHiMiuui / y .miy) i.mmK.yLa*nv. .A/ AA\7 115. Treasury bond yields (percent) 117. Municipal bond yields (percent) 118. Secondary market yields on FHA mortgager j? (percent) . ^..^.., . \ 765- 1955 S6 57 §8 §9 60 61 §S 63 64 87 68 69 77 78 1979 Current data for these series are shown on pages 71 and 72. APRIL 1978 35 CYCLICAL INDICATORS B | CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS-Con. Chart B7, Money and Credit—Con. (Aug.) (Apr,) P (Dee.) (Nov.) P T (Apr.) (Feb.) T P I (Nov.) P (Mar.) T Interest Rates-Con. 67. Bank rates on short-term business loans (percent) 109. Average prime rate charged by banks (percent) | Outstanding Debt 66. Consumer installment 72. Commercial and industrial Inans outstanding, weekly reporting large commercial banks (Ml. dol.) 95. Ratio, consumer installment debt to personal jncoroe (percent) §6 S7 S8 60 61 63 64 ©5 60 67 Si 60 70 7i 72 73 74 7S 10- 76 77 7S 107S Current data for these series are shown on page 72. 36 APRIL 1978 BCII CYCLICAL INDICATORS C I DIFFUSION INDEXES AND RATES OF CHANGE Chart Cl. Diffusion Indexes (Aug.) (Apr.) P I (Apr.) (Feb.) P T (Dec.) (Now.) P T (Hm.) P (Mar.) T Percent rising) 950. Twelve leading indicator components (6-nio. span-—-, 1*mo. span—f-) 100*1 50- 951. Four roughly coincident indicator components (6-mo. span—, 1-mo. span—) l lllfiW 1 ',' I' 5 !! ii I Mi ' 1» ' V jj : !t !W ;i mm i 100-t SO- 952. Six lagging indicator components (6-mo. span—, 1-mo. span — ] I 961. Average workweek, production workers, manufacturing--?! industries (9-mo. span—, 1-mo. span 962. Initial claims, State unemployment insurance-51 areas (percent declining; 9-mo. span—, 1-mo. span 100«i 50- o-J 963. Employees on private nonagricultural payrolls-172 industries (6-mo. span—r 1-mo. span — 1955 56 57 58 5i SO 61 62 $3 64 65 66 67 88 69 J© 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 1979 Current data for these series are shown on page 73. KCII APRIL 1978 37 CYCLICAL C I DIFFUSION INDEXES AND RATES OF CHANGE—Con. Chart Cl. Diffusion Indexes—Con. P (Bee.) (Nov.) P I T (Nov.) (Mar.) P T 964. New orders, durable goods industries--^ industries (9-mo. span—, 1-mo. span—! A" 8 965. Newly approved capital appropriations, deflated-17 industries1 (4-Q moving avg, •*•, 1-D spaa — QQ- 966. Industrial production~24 industries (6-mo. span—, 1-mo. span— 967. Industrial materials prices-13 industrial materials (9-mo. span—, 1-mo. span--) stocks-62-82 industries (9-mo. span—, 1-mo. span—-) 969. Profits, manufacturing-about 1fOOO corporations (4-0 spaci~~, 1-Q 9(3- 1SSS S6 @0 61 71 72 73 74 1S7S 'Thl* Is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from The Conference Board. Current data for these series are shown on page 74. 38 APRIL 1978 BCII DIFFUSION INDEXES AND RATES OF CHANGE—Con. Chart Cl, Diffusion Indexes—Con. (Dec.) (Nov.) P T (Nov.) P (Mar.) T (Dec.) (Nov.) P T (Nov.) P (Mar.) T 970. Business expenditures for new plant and !| equipment-18 industries (1-Q span) (a) Actual expenditures 974. Number of employees, manufacturing and trade (4-Q span)1 70-i §0- 975. Level of inventories, manufacturing and trade (4-Q span)1 (a) Actual expenditures 7050- 976. Selling prices, manufacturing (4-Q span)1 971. New orders, manufacturing (4-Q span)1 972. Net profits, manufacturing and trade (4-Q span)1 977. Selling prices, wholesale trade (44 span)1 70* 973.! Net sales, manufacturing and trade (4-Q span)1 978. Selling prices, retail trade (4-Q span)1 §0- 1988 69 7Q 1 This is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from Dun & Bradstreet, Inc. Dun & Bradstreet diffusion Indexes are based on surveys of about 1,400 business executives. Current data for these series are shown on page 75. BCII APRIL 1978 39 CYCLICAL INDICATORS C I DIFFUSION INDEXES AND RATES OF CHANGE-Con. Chart C3. Rates of Change (Aug.) (Apr.) P (Apr.) (Feb.) T F (Nov.) P (D@G.) (Nov.) P T T (Mar.) T Percent changes at annual rate 910c. Composite index of twelve leading indicators (series 1,3,8, 12, 19, 20,29,32,38,92, 104, 105) +40+30+20+10- 0-10-20« -30-J 920c. Composite index of four roughly coincident indicators (series 41 J7,5l757r +28+100-10- 930c. Composite index of six lagging indicators 50c. GNP in constant dollars (1-Q span) +10-1 +5- 47c. Index of industrial production 48c. Employee-hours in nonagricultural establistiments 51c. Personal income less transfer payments in 1972 dollars ; 195S 56 57 40 58 59 60 61 §2 f>3 i4 @S 86 71 72 73 74 7S 7S 77 78 1979 APRIL 1978 IICII NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT Chart Al. GNP and Personal Income (Aug.) (Apr.) P T (Apt) (Feb.) P T (Dec.) (Nov.) P T (Now.) P (Mar.) T 220020001890- 14001200- 200. GNP in current dollars, Q (ann. rate, bil. dol.) 1000- 17001600.150014001300120011001000100- 223. Personal income in current dollars (ann. rate. bil. dol.] 800- 224. Disposable personal income in current dollars, 0 (ann. rate, bii. dol.) 213. Final sales in 1972 dollars, Q (ann. rate, bil. dol. 225. Disposable personal income in 1972 7.0-t 0.56.0- 217. Per capita GNP in 1972 dollars, Q (ann. rate, thons. dol.) 5.95.04.54.0- 3.5- 227. Per capita disposable personal income in 1972 dollars, Q (ann. rate, tftous. dol.) m s? ss m m ei ©2 i4 SS 66 67 71 72 76 11 78 1979 Current data for these series are shown on pages 62 and 79. KCII APRIL 1978 41 IMPORTANT A | NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT-Con. Chart A2. Personal Consumption Expenditures (Aug.) (Apr.) P T i} (Mar.) T Annual rate, billion dollars (current) Personal consumption expenditures- Annual rate, billion dollars (1972) 1955 56 57 Si 59 66 61 §2 63 64 it 69 70 Jl Current data for those series are shown on pages 79 and 80. 42 APRIL 1978 OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES IA I NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT—Con. Chart A3. Gross Private Domestic Investment P I p f Annual rate, billion dollars (current) Gross private domestic iiivestment- 245. Change in business inventories, Q Annual rate, billion dollars (1972) J96 57 58 IS ifi ti ii «7 Current data for these series are shown on page 80. BCII APRIL 1978 43 OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC A I NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT—Con. Chart A4. Government Purchases of Goods and Services (teg,) (Apr.) (Apr.) (Feb.) F T F T Annual rate, billion dollars (current) Sflfl 481 4^0 380 Government purchases of goods and services- 340 260, Total, Q 268. State ami local govemidits, B 140- 60 J Annual rate, billion dollars (1972) 340 261, TotalTf 1811 267. State and local governments, Q \ 10SS S6 S7 58 ii 8© J if S3 Si ^J 7J m 1979 Current data (or theie series are shown on page 80. 44 APRIL 1978 KCII IA | NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT—Con. Chart A5. Foreign Trade r.) F T (fee.) (ffe.) F T (Apr.) (Feb.) F T (Nov.) P (Mar.) T Annual rate, billion dollars (current) 240220- 200* ISO160- 21 140- XZ 120100- 80- 252. Exports of goods and services, Q X 253. Imports of goods and services, Q 250. Net exports of goods and services, 6 Annual rate, billion dollars (1972) 256. Exports of goods and services, 0 257. Imports of goods and services, Q 255. Net exports of goods and services, Q isss ss §y §s m m e 78 Current data for these series are shown on page 81. lt€l» APRIL 1978 45 OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES A I NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT—Con. Chart A6. National Income and Its Components (A«g,)(Apr.) P (Apr.) (Feb.) T P I P T Annual rate, billion dollars (current) 2000180016001400- 1200- tooe900800700800- 220, National income. Q 500- 7 280. Compensation of employees, Q 400360- iv 180160140- 286. Corporate profits with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments, Q 10090H 282, Proprietors' income with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments, Q v 4030- 288. Net interest, Q20* 284. Rental income of persons with capital consumption adjustment, Q 10- 96 57 Si 60 61 63 64 §§ 66 68 ii 70 71 72 73 74 7S 76 77 1979 Current data far these series are shown on page 81. 46 APRIL 1978 BCD OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES |A| NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT-Con. Chart A7. Saving (Aug.) (Apr.) P (Dec.) (Now.) P T (Apr.) (Feb.) T F T (Now.) (Mar.) T 293. Personal saving rate, Q ^7 Jl I : 1955 56 57 58 59 60 61 , 62 63 , 64 65 8- r\s A. ' 10- ' 66 '„ 'IJdUL1 . 67 68 69 70 ... 71 72 ' 73 6- \r 4- lULTJJL 74 75 76 77 78 1979 Current data for these series are shown on pages 81 and 82. ItCII APRIL 1978 47 IMPORTANT A I NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT—Con. Chart A8. Shares of GNP and National Income f T (Nov.) P (Mar.) T [Percent of GNP 235. Personal consumption expenditures,j 268. State and local government prckases of goods and services, 6 265. Federal Government purchases of goods and services, Q 248. Nonresidential fixed investment, 8 249. Residential fixed investment, •*^*s». \7 —**-• 251. Net exports of goods and services, Q 247. Change in business inventories, Q [Percent of National Income] 64. Compensation of employees, Q 283. Proprietors' income with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments, Q 287. Corporate profits with inventory valuation and capita] consumption adjustoBts, Q 285. Rental income of persons with capital consumption adjustment, §6 w ss §9 §© ©i 67 m Current data for theie series are shown on page 82. APRIL 1978 IICII OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC Bj PRICES, WAGES, AND PRODUCTIVITY Chart Bl. Price Movements (Dae.) (Nov.) T (Dec.) P T (Nov.) P (Mar.) T Percent changes at annual rate 310. Implicit price deflator, GNP, Q 310c. Implicit price deflator, GNP H-Q span) /A m M -*x 311c. Fixed weighted price index, gross bigness product (1-Q span) /s* 311. Fixed weighted price index, gross business +15+10- n +10- Wholesale prices+30- 330c. All commodities +20+10« +30- 335c. Industrial commodities 333c. Producer finished goods / 1908 6S 70 71 72 73 74 7S 77 1978 Current data for these series are shown on pages 83, 84, and 85. APRIL 1978 49 IMPORTANT PRICES, WAGES, AND PRODUCTIVITY-Con. Chart Bl. Price Movements—Con. (Aug.) (Apr.) P T (Apr.) (fell,) P T (Dee.) (Nov.) P T (Nov.) P (Mar.) T Consumer prices- +30+20+10- Chart B2. Wages and Productivity 240- Me*: 1967=100 220200180- 345. Average hourly compensation, all employees, nonfarm business sector (currant dollars), Q 160- 140- 120- 340. Average hourly earnings of production workers, private nonfarm economy (current dollars)' 100130- 346. Real average hourly compensation, all employees, nonfarm business sector; u ~"" 120110M 341. Real average hourly earniigs of production workers, private nonrarm economy' 19S5 Si ,71 73 & 74 ^Adjusted for overtime (In manufacturing only) and Interindustry employment shifts and seasonallty. Current data for theie series are shown on pages 83, 86, ana 67, 50 APRIL 1978 IICII B I PRICES, WAGES, AND PRODUCTIVITY—Con. Chart B2. Wages and Productivity—Con. (Aug.) (Apr.) P T (Apr.) (Feb.) P T (Dec.) (Nov.) P T (Nov.) P (Mar.) T I Wages- CorT Change in average hourly earnings of product workers, private nonfarm economy-*340e. Current dollar earnings ,^v|T 341c. Real earnings , 1 rlvmnl spans _^^JlJT ux-monin lann. raiej j; \\ u /. -5- Change ill average hourly compensation, all employees, nonfarm business sector, Q-345c. Current dollar compensation One-quarter spans (ann. rate) -10+15- ^.— L +104^« MepiatgB wage anOeifit decisions, all industries^ 348. First year avg. changes, Q (antrratet +10- 349. Average changes over life contract, Q (ann. rate) Productivity j 370. Output per hour, all persons, private business sector, Q 358. Output per hour, all persons, nonfarm business sector, Q x 370c. Change in output per hour, private business sector, Q +10- . a ^^y^Vfesc^W^^ >————' * S *** ^..i±^^^f. ^,.v.,/^ k 56 §7 Si 1® ©© 61 it 63 m m @@ 6J 68 69 7© 71 7% +5- ^ V 73 ?® 7$ 76 77 78 1979 1 Adjusted for overtime (in manufacturing only) and interindustry employment shifts and seasonally. 2 One-month percent changes have been multiplied by a constant (12) so that they may be shown against the background of the annualized changes over 6-month spans. See the current data table for actual 1-month percent changes. Current data for these series are shown on pages 86 and 87. ItUI APRIL 1978 51 OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC C I LABOR FORCE, EMPLOYMENT, AND UNEMPLOYMENT Chart Cl. Civilian Labor Force and Major Components P I (N@v.) (m.} P T 441. Civilian tabor force, total (millions) 442. Total employed (millions) Labor force participation rates (percent)451. Males 20 years and over 453. Both sexes, 16-19 years of age 452. Females 20 years and over 444. Males 20 years and over X 446. Both sexes, 16-19 years of age 447. Number unemployed, full-time 448. Number employed part-time for economic reasons (millions) 1955 S6 57 §8 §9 GQ H ©3 @4 6S 66 Current data for these series are shown on page 88. 52 APRIL 1978 BCII D GOVERNMENT ACTIVITIES Chart Dl. Receipts and Expenditures -pr.) (Apr.) (Feb.) (Dec.) (tow.) P T (Rfou.) Annual rate, billion dollars (current) 450400350300- 502. Federal Government expenditures, Q 501. 200- \ Federal Government receipts, Q 150- 100- 500. Federal Government surplus or deficit, Q 511. State and focal government receipts, I] 510. State and local government surplus or deficit, Q m m m SD d© 1979 Current data for these series are shown on page 89. APRIL 1978 53 OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC GOVERNMENT ACTIVITIES-Con. Chart D2. Defense Indicators (Dee.) (Nov.) P T (Nov.) 516. Defense Department obligations, total 6- 525. Military prime contract awards in U.S. (bil. dot.; MCD moving avg.-6-term) Manufacturers' new orders, defense products (bil. dol.; MCD moving avg.--6-term) 564. Federal Government purchases of goods and services for national defense, Q (ann, rate, bil. dol.[ 70" m S7 98 i© 61 ?© 71 Current data for those scries arc shown on 54 APRIL 1978 ItCII OTHER IMPORTANT E© EJ U.S. INTERNATIONAL TRANSACTIONS Chart El. Merchandise Trade (Aug.) (Apr.) P T (Apr.) (Feb.) P T (Dec.) (Nov.) P T (Nov.) P (Mar.) T 12- SL 5 602. Exports, excluding military aid shipments (bit. dol.; MCO moving avg.--5-term) 604. Exports of agricultural products, total (Ml. dol.) Exports of nonelectrical machinery (bif. doi.) 612. General imports (bil. dol.; moving avg.-4-term) 814. Imports of petroleum and petroleum 616. Imports of automobiles and parts (bil. dot.! 1955 56 57 58 59 60 61 @2 63 64 65 7S 76 77 78 1979 Current data for these series are shown on page 90. KCII APRIL 1978 55 IMPORTANT E I U.S. INTERNATIONAL TRANSACTIONS-Con. Chart E2. Goods and Services Movements (Aug.) (Apr.) P I (0©e.) (Nov.) P ! (Apr.) (Feb.) P T (Now.) P (Mar.) T 867. Balance on goods and services, 0 622. Merchandise trade balance, Q 651. Income on U.S. investments abroad, Q 652. Income on foreign investments in the U.S., Q m §j si m ©@ @i i NOTE: Annual totals are shown for the period prior to 1960. Current data for these series are shown on page 91. 56 APRIL 1978 BCII F INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS Chart Fl. Industrial Production (Aug.) (Apr.) P T US SJ Si (Apr.) (Feb.) P T ii i© (Dec.) (Wow.) P T (Mar.) T I Current data for these series are shown .on page 92. BCII APRIL 1978 57 IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES F I INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS—Con. Chart F2. Consumer Prices Chart F3. Stock Prices (Nov.) P (Dec.) (Nov.) (Dec.) (Mov.) P Consumer prices: percent changes over 6-month spans (annual rate)- 1 (Mar.) T Stock prices- Index: 1967-100] 19, United States 140- vjOt. 120 100- *fay400« - — . * I -T- - f*\ 748. Japan / -T- ^ • _,_., / 300- ^^-^ V-\A^ 200- 4 / 200- A/ x^ 150- IDfl- 745. West Germany ^***r /'*<J'\ AT-V ^\ v^y^ ^w— /^ s*~«~. 4 736c. France s*fry" 120- fiti- 746. France +201 120100- 742. United Kingdom 2403 /VnlTL ^A^ ^/ VA. ^^\ ^A .,/*•* -f ^ v / A^v/ Y^V f \\ r // V 4 \f 200180160140120100- so- V 747. Italy 737C. Italy 420- 80- 40' 743. Canada 733c. Canada 160' 140« 120100- 71 72 73 74 7S 76 ^7 1978 Current data for those series are shown on pages 93 and 94. 58 APRIL 1978 KCII CYCLICAL INDICATORS COMPOSITE INDEXES AND THEIR COMPONENTS M| COMPOSITE INDEXES 910. Index of 12 leading indicators (series 1,3,8, 12, 19, 20 29, 32, 36, 92, 104, 105) Year and month (1967=100) 920. Index of 4 roughly coincident indicators (series 41,47,51,57) (1967-100) 930. Index of 6 lagging indicators (series 62, 70, 72, 91,95,109) (1967-100) Leading Indicator Subgroups 913. Marginal employment adjustments (series 1,2, 3, 5) 914. Capital investment commitments (series 12, 20, 29) 915. Inventory investment and purchasing (series 8, 32, 36, 92) (1967=100) (1967=100) (1967=100) 916. Profitability (series 17,19,80) (1967=100) 917. Money and financial flows (series 104,105, 110) (1967=100) 940. Ratio, coincident index to lagging index (1967=100) 1976 January February March 121.2 122.0 123.2 118.7 120.0 121.2 120.8 120.1 119.8 97.5 97.9 97.9 105.4 104.9 106.0 100.3 101.4 107.2 108.5 108.3 106.7 106.3 106.2 101.2 April May June 123.0 124.5 125.6 121.9 122.0 122.5 119.2 119.7 121.0 96.0 96.5 96.1 104.9 104.9 106.5 102.1 103.0 103.6 108.4 108.0 108.3 107.6 108.0 107.4 102.3 101.9 101,2 125.7 125.6 125.3 122.7 123.2 123.0 121.1 120.9 121.9 95.7 95.5 94.3 106.7 106.5 107,9 103.2 103.3 102.3 109.2 109.3 108.6 107.7 107.9 107.9 101.3 101.9 100.9 126.1 127.0 127.7 122.7 123.9 126.0 121.7 121.2 120.9 94.5 96.0 96.8 109.3 109.0 108.7 101.3 102.0 102.2 107.4 106.7 107.5 109.4 109.7 110.5 100.8 102,2 104.2 126.3 127.3 130.0 125.2 126.5 128.8 121.6 122.3 122.8 95.6 96.6 97.9 108.8 109.6 110.6 101.0 101.6 103.4 106.8 106.2 107.0 no. 3 109.9 110.6 103.0 103.4 D104.9 April May June H30.4 r!29.9 H29.7 129.1 129.5 130.2 123.3 124.3 126.5 97.1 97.1 97,0 110.0 110.8 111.5 rl04.1 rl03.4 102.7 107.7 108.4 108.7 rill. 3 rllO.3 r!09.9 104.7 104.2 102.9 July August September r!29.4 r!31.5 H32.3 130.5 130.6 131.3 H26.8 128.1 H29.3 96.1 96.1 96.4 rllO.8 rl!3.1 r113.Q H02.3 H02.8 r!02.9 109.5 (H>109.6 108.8 rin.o rl!2.1 rl!3.3 rl02.9 102.0 101,5 October November December 133.8 H34.3 H> 135.2 132.4 133.3 134.6 H31.0 H32.4 132.6 96.8 97.6 D'98.5 rl!3.6 rl!4.4 H>rll5.1 r!03.1 r!02.6 rl03.1 107.6 107.1 r!06.5 • [8X114.5 114.1 r!14.3 rlOl.l rlOO.7 101.5 r!33.5 134.2 M34.1 r!32.7 133.8 H> 2 135.6 r!35.3 137.3 e 138.3 r!13.3 rl!4.3 pl!4.8 r!03.7 r96.9 p98.2 H04.5 rT04,l p!04.0 rl!3.6 rill . 1 p!09.0 r98.1 r97.5 p98.0 July August September .. . October November December 99.3 98.3 99.9 1977 January February March .... 1978 January February March April May June 3 96.8 pioi.i .... July August September October November December NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ®. Current high values are indicated byE); for series that move counter to movements in general business activity, current low values,are indicated by |H). Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Comolete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available. Graphs of these series are shown on pages 11 and 12. Excludes series 12 and 36 for which data are not yet available. 2 Excludes series 57 for which data are not yet available. 3 Excludes series 70 and 95 for which data are not yet available. APRIL 1978 59 CYCLICAL INDICATORS B I CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS MAJOR ECONOMIC PROCESS .. BB EMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT Minor Economic Process L, L, L Timing C(QSS Year and month L, L, L L, C, L 1 . Average workweek of production workers, manufacturing 2. Accession 21. Average weekly overtime rate, manufachours, produc- turing tion workers, manufacturing (Per 100 employees) (Hours) (Hours) L, C, L L, Lg, U 1,1,1 5. Average weekly initial claims, State unemployment insurance1 (Thous.) Comprehensive Employment Job Vacancies Marginal Employment Adjustments 3. Layoff rate, manufacturing 4. Quit rate, manufacturing (Per 100 employees) (Per 100 employees) L, Lg, U 60. Ratio, helpwanted advertising to persons unemployed . (Ratio) u,e,c 1, Lg, U 46. Index of help-wanted advertising in newspapers (1967-100) 48, Employeehours in nof> agricultural establishments (Ann. rate, bil. hours) 1976 January February March . 40.4 40.3 40.2 3.1 3.1 3.2 4.1 4.2 4.3 359 342 347 1.1 1.0 1.2 1.6 1.7 1,8 0.352 0.384 0.394 87 93 94 150.59 150.22 150.34 April 39 4 40 3 40 2 2 5 3 3 3 1 4 1 4 0 3 8 360 392 397 1 3 1 3 1 4 1.8 1 7 1 7 0.378 0 397 0 402 91 94 96 149.66 151 35 151 07 40 1 40 0 39 7 3 1 3 0 3 g 3 8 3 3 403 408 424 1 4 1 5 1 5 1 7 1 6 1 6 0 396 0 390 0 383 98 97 94 151 73 151 69 152 11 39 9 dn l 40 0 3 0 1 1 1? 3 6 4 1 428 ?<n "WQ 1 5 1 1 1 2 1 6 1 5 1 7 0 389 0 394 0 417 96 99 105 152 82 152 59 153 59 January February March 39 5 40.3 40 4 3 2 4 0 H>4 6 4 2 386 431 329 1 2 1 4 1 1 1.8 1.9 0 442 0 434 1 9 O 105 106 108 159 ?fi 3 3 April 3 4 3 4 3 4 4 0 4 1 3 9 358 378 363 1 1 1 i 1 2 1 9 1 9 1 3 n &79 n AA/L n /LQP 109 112 114 i Rfi Rn June 40 3 40 4 40 5 July August September 40 2 an 1 40 3 3 4 1 ^ 3 3 3 8 1A 3 9 382 377 1 3 1 "\ 1 3 1 8 1 8 1 8 n R?K n R3? n ^**£ 121 12? 120 1^7 11 1 RK QQ 1 R7 1 L 40 4 40 5 40 5 3 5 3 8 3 9 4 5 372 349 331 1 1 0 9 1 0 1 8 1 9 n 57fl 0 594 0 661 128 133 140 158 69 158 10 158 94 A n <ni 370 fQ\n*59n |H)p3ZO een 1 18 K7G fjvs. .-i n £ 0 "3> [H)p0.68J 1 ^Q May June .... , July ., August September . October November December 3 7 1 Q 1977 May October November December 3.3 3 5 3 5 ^Q1 E)2 1 flcn md Rfi 1 RR ^R 1^5 AT 1 ^6 69 1978 January February March ^Q fi rdfi 0 luNndn |p/ P^U. R 0 -3 C lu\ r4 0 P 3 7/ po. 4 n nA H p*K U n Q 1 Q n 9 n [H)pO,9 p2 . 0 O O O [H) pi 41 v*1R7 fi/1 v>l eo no fn\ n en. 80 OA [H) Pi 1 bU April May June July August September October November December NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by @. Current high values are indicated by [H); for series that move counter to movements in general business activity, current low values are indicated by[H>. Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available. Graphs of these series are shown on pages 13,17, and 18. Data exclude Puerto Rico which Is included in figures published by the source agency. 60 APRIL 1978 CYCLICAL INDICATORS CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS-Con. MAJOR ECONOMIC PROCESS II Minor Economic Process . . Comprehensive Unemployment Comprehensive Employment-Con. u,c.c c, c, c L,C,U U, Lg, U L, Lg, U L, Lg, U L, Lg, U Lg, Lg, Lg Lg, Lg, Lg 42. Persons engaged in nonagricultural activities, labor force survey 41. Employees on nonagricultural payrolls, establishment survey 40. Employees in goodsproducing industries (mining, mfg., construction) 90. Ratio, civilian employment to total population of working age 37. Number of persons unemployed, civilian labor force 43. Unemployment rate, total 45. Average weekly insured unemployment rate State programs1 91. Average duration of unemployment 44. Unemployment rate, persons unemployed 15 weeks and over (Thous.) (Thous.) (Thous.) (Percent) (Thous.) (Percent) (Percent) (Weeks) (Percent) Timing Class Year and month EMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT-Con. 1976 7 9 7 7 7 6 4 4 4 2 d 1 16 7 16 3 Ifi d 7 174 7 fi 4 1 I C Q 7 DdrT 7 d d °. ici 7117 7 R A A 1c p po 7 °.7R 7 7 1C 7 An? 7 p 4 .0 cc nc 7 OT p 7 7 "3R3 7 January . . February March . . . 82,956 83,287 83,562 78,413 78,650 78,929 23,069 23,143 23 244 55 70 55.80 55 90 7,359 7,205 7 108 April May June 83 825 84 232 84 134 79 228 79 263 79 402 23 371 23 353 23 357 56 08 56 21 56 07 July August . . September 84 477 84 453 84 512 7Q R?n 91 TRl cc 7Q fiflfi 91 9Q1 CC 79 895 pq Aqd October November December fid R^d 85 017 85 206 7Q AIR an i?7 on q7fi pq qcc CC, f|O 7 91 AftA pq cpp cc pi 7 Aflfi 7 p cc 97 7 AQO 7 7 /I 7 c / . D 7 A 7 P. £ I C C 4p 1 C C 4 Q 1 b, b 1 b. b 1C O ID.o ? Q 2 7 p c 2 p 2 p 2 . /1^ 2/1 .4 2 . cb 2 ./ 4i 4/1 . *f 1 o. o 1 b. 4 1C. O 1 b. o 2 . cb 2 . cb 2 .cD 4 1 .1 4*1 .I 1C K . 7/ 2 .0 2 .00 5 4 . 7/ T . 1 1C O 1 C /I 1977 January . February . March QC COO on C7/I pq cpc cc oo 7/ ,Uob nc.c. pC 000 on p7n 00 cc ci DC pqq pi qqi 7 ?A m 7 cc 71 7 1 AR April May June QC cpi pi con Of. QOp pi po.7 07 O-JP pp i C7 PA 1 7£ o/T oc/i c4 ,£04 9A o c c CC QQ July August September 87 382 87 569 87 889 82 407 82 474 82 763 24 412 24 305 24 360 57 09 57 14 October . . November December QflO PA /tOfi C7 pAC, PA RPP C7 pi pq /ipo PA C.0fi C7 ftp. idn PP P.P, ftR7 00 PQ OpC 7CO c"? nc D/ , Ub C7 on O/ . £ 1 c? pc QC QO P7O 6 6 ,oy4 6 ,yu*f on /i 7 / .1 1 7-1 .\ 7-1 . 1 6 719 fi Q/-Q QQA 6 821 1 b. OJ 0 3. 0 1 /I /I 1 *\, 4 2 .11 3 .7 / H/i .4 1 .y Q 3 "7 ./ 3-7 ,/ H .9n 1/1 O 14. o Q 1 .9 Q 1 .0 Q q p Ul 1 n 7 n 6 p d n A n 117 1 p U 1 Q 4 . nU 6 CCQ 6 6 cpp 6 p ceo 6 0.1 n 6 c ppc 6 7 3 P 7 A 3 O 3 .b A T O O 1 J. b T O 7 I O0 I . ny 1 1 .Q O 1 Q 1 .0 1978 January February March April May June 89 527 89 761 fu\pQ QCC r pq 71 Q r84 055 Fu\ AQP. [H^ nfid poHj^yo Rpq cp 07 r24 729 58 08 r pA fuN n pA ftQfi ins RP, ifi H) 6 090 6 148 6 H) 6 1 6 2 {- 101 q c 12 5 0)12*3 fuS m; n^ PO.Hd i 7 1 6 IDS! 5 ... July ... August September . . October . . . . November December NOTE; Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ®. Current high values are indicated by H):for series that move counter to movements in general business activity, current low values are indicated by [fi). Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available. Graphs of these series are shown on pages 15,16,18, and 19. 1 Data exclude Puerto Rico which is included in figures published by the source agency. APRIL 1978 61 CYCLICAL INDICATORS CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Con. MAJOR ECONOMIC PROCESS |Q PRODUCTION AND INCOME Minor Economic Process Industrial Production Comprehensive Output and Income C,C,C C,C,C Timing Class 50. Gross national product in 1972 dollars Your and month Personal income 223. Current dollars (Ann. rate, bil.dol.) (Ann. rate, bil.dol.} 52. Constant (1972) dollars (Ann. rate, bil.dol.) c,c,c c,c,c 51. Personal income less transfer payments in 1972 dollars 53. Wages and salaries in mining, mfg,, and construction in 1972 dollars (Ann, rate, bil.dol.) (Ann. rate, bil.dol.) C,C,C 47. Index of industrial production, total (1967-100) c.c.c c.c.c C, L, L 73. Index of industrial production, durable manufactures 74. Index of industrial production, nondurable manufactures (1967=100) (1967=100) 49. Value of goods output in 1972 dollars (Ann. rate, bil.dol.) 1976 January February March 1,256.'6 1,326.9 1,338.9 1,348.3 1,015,2 1,023.6 1,029.2 871.5 877.6 882.6 217.2 218.7 221.0 125.9 127.6 128.3 116.0 118.4 119.5 137.5 139.9 140.3 571 ! 8 April May June 1,27K5 1,359.5 1,367,9 1,372.7 1,033.1 1,033.9 1,033.7 888.9 891.8 891.7 222.0 222.3 221.9 128.7 129.7 129.8 120.3 122.2 122,4 140.4 140.6 140.6 579*.8 July August September 1,283*.7 1,386.2 1,393.7 1,401.8 1,039.1 1,040.1 1,041.5 893.9 894.6 897.0 222.5 221.0 222.6 130.7 131.3 130.6 124.0 125.0 122.4 140.3 140.4 142.3 586 .'9 1,387 .'4 1,414.2 1,432.1 1,450.2 1,046.8 1,056.1 1,065.5 902.1 909.8 918.6 221.9 225.0 225.9 130.2 131,5 133.0 121.4 123.4 125.0 141.9 143.0 143.3 58K9 January February . March l,31l!6 1,454.3 1,477.0 1,499,1 1,060.0 1,070.3 1,083.2 913.8 923,2 933.7 223.8 227.4 232.2 132.3 133.2 135.3 123.4 124.0 126.8 143.4 145.3 147.0 602 ,*4 April May Juno ... 1,330.'? 1,510.1 1,517,3 1,524.3 1,086.4 1,086.1 1,085.7 938.2 940,9 943.2 233.1 234.3 235.7 136.1 137.0 137.8 128.0 129.3 130.5 147.0 148.5 148.4 608 .'5 July August September . 1,347.'4 1,539.2 1,549.0 1,561.3 1,091,6 1,093.9 1,100.3 944.7 946.6 952.1 235.9 234.2 235.6 138.7 138.1 138.5 131.6 131.3 131.7 148.6 149.4 149,5 617.'6 [H>1,36(X2 1,584.0 1,602.3 1,622.7 1,112.4 1,120.5 E> 1,130.0 964.3 971.5 |H> 981.1 238.3 239.4 238.3 138.9 139.3 r!39,7 132.4 132.7 r133.4 149.6 150.1 r!50.9 15)624! 4 pi, 358^3 rl .625.2 rl,632.8 B>pl,652.2 rl,120.8 1,119.1 el, 127.0 r972.3 971.4 e978.8 r238.0 r239.9 ®p243.4 H38.6 H39.0 B> p!41,0 r130.9 H31.9 B>pl34.3 r!49.8 r150.6 [fi>pl52.2 p615.9 October November . December . . 1977 .,. October November December 1978 January February , March April May ..., June July August September October November December . ... NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ©. Current high values are indicated by JED; for series that move counter to movements in general business activity, current low values are indicated by [H). Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available. Graphs of these series are shown on pages 15, 20, 21, and 41. 62 APRIL 1978 KCII CYCLICAL INDICATORS CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Con. H MAJOR ECONOMIC PROCESS Minor Economic Process PRODUCTION AND INCOME-Con. Capacity Utilization L, C, U Timing Class 83. Rate of capacity utilization, manufacturing (BEA) Year and month JQ CONSUMPTION, TRADE, ORDERS, AND DELIVERIES (Percent) 82. Rate of capacity utilization, manufacturing (FRB) (Percent) Orders and Deliveries L, C, U 84. Rate of capacity utilization, materials (Percent) 1976 January February March 'si 6. Current dollars 7. Constant (1972) dollars I, L, I 8. 'New orders for consumer goods and materials in 1972 dollars L, Lg, U 25. Change in unfilled orders, durable goods industries 96. Manufacturers' unfilled orders, durable goods industries (Bil.dol.) (Bil.dol.) (Bil.dol,) (Bil.dol.) {Bil.dol.) Revised1 Revised1 Revised1 Revised1 31.34 31.91 32.88 -1.04 -0.35 80.'? 50.12 50.60 51.13 35.05 35.26 35.46 80 '. 8 81 .'2 52.09 50.92 50.91 8o!e 86!3 81 '.2 U 1,1 32. Vendor performance, companies reporting slower deliveries® (Percent reporting) Revised1 0.99 161.83 161.49 162.48 42 50 52 32.48 32.93 32.99 0.38 0.06 0.26 162.86 162.92 163.19 58 58 62 35.90 34.92 34.68 32.88 32.60 31.91 0.67 -1.36 0.11 163.86 162.50 162.61 60 64 60 51.70 53.49 56.44 34.93 36,00 37.73 31.51 33.10 34.23 1.36 0.71 1.75 163.98 164.69 166.44 50 48 45 80'.4 56.36 56.43 59.29 37.45 37.32 38.91 34.47 34.80 36.32 1.83 0.81 0.87 168.27 169.07 169,94 44 55 56 82*. 7 E>82',6 58.80 58.84 59.11 38.41 38.25 38.38 35.08 34.92 35.05 1.80 1.56 1.06 171.74 173,30 174.36 58 56 58 82*. 3 56.37 59.27 60.36 36.25 37.87 38.25 34.41 35.55 35.20 -1.10 H> 83.'6 0.62 1.08 173.27 173.89 174.97 59 58 56 82*.9 82 '.2 63.56 62.82 66.16 40.05 39.39 41.25 35,73 35.84 35.92 3.24 2.59 4.04 178.21 180.80 184.83 56 50 56 p82*.2 p8l',4 63.54 66.80 E)P68.23 39.22 40.88 Dp41.50 35.81 |H>36.98 P36.80 188.40 192.12 E>P196.29 55 64 E>67 80.' 3 *80 October November December Value of manufacturers' new orders, durable goods industries L, L,l 32.55 33.79 35.39 79.' 3 *82 July August September L, L, L 45,93 47.92 50.43 79.' i *82 April May June L, L, L 1977 January February March .. *83 April May June E>84 July August September .. . October November December '82 *82 1978 January February March .. {NA} 3.56 3.73 i)p4.17 April May June July August September . . October November December . . NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ©. Current high values are indicated byE); for series that move counter to movements in general business activity, current low values are indicated by [H). Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available. Graphs of these series are shown on pages 13, 21, and 22. x See "New Features and Changes for This Issue," page iii. APRIL 1978 63 CYCLICAL INDICATORS CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Con. MAJOR ECONOMIC f 3 ROCESS Minor Economic Process Timing Class C,C,C C,C,C 56. Current dollars (Mil.dol.) 57. Constant (1972) dollars (Mil.dol.) C,L,C C, L,U U, L,U 75. Index of inSales of retail stores dustrial production consumer 54. Current 59. Constant goods dollars (1972) dollars (1967-100) (Mil. dot.) FIXED CAPITAL INVESTMENT Formation of Business Enterprises Consumption and trade Manufacturing and trade sales Year and month H jraj CONSUMPTION, TRADE, ORDERS, AND DELIVERIES-Con. (Mif. dol.) uc,c L, L, I 55. Personal consumption expenditures automobiles 58. Index of consumer sentiment ® (Ann. rate, oil. dol.) (IstQ 1966=100} L, L, L 12. Index pf net business formation (1987-100) L, L, L 13. Number of new business incorporations (Number) 1976 January February March 191,810 194,335 196,915 129,942 131,732 133,398 132.6 134,6 135,2 51,669 52,076 52,174 38,704 39,461 39,958 52*.7 84 '.5 US. 4 114,5 116.3 29,639 29,043 31,027 April May Juno 198,492 197,848 200,067 133,325 132,406 133,651 135.4 136.5 136.0 52,600 52,298 52,916 40,012 39,132 39,810 54 '.5 82.2 115.7 114.9 118.6 29,876 28,637 31,600 July August September 200,482 200,823 201,093 133,424 134,962 133,701 136.1 137,0 135.7 52,946 53,197 53,370 39,525 40,061 39,431 54^8 88!a 117,8 117.8 118,3 30,114 32,746 32,368 October November December 199,569 203,731 212,095 132,414 133,823 138,905 135.9 138.4 141.3 54,171 54,822 56,685 39,705 40,241 41,713 58*. i 8e!6 120.1 121.3 121.0 32,887 33,496 33,495 January February March 209,950 215,281 221,903 136,769 138,674 142,141 139.9 140.5 142.9 55,703 57,291 57,990 40,471 41,288 42,006 65^6 87^5 123.3 123.0 124.3 34,519 33,173 35,300 April May June 140,076 139,895 140,459 142.9 143.1 143.8 58,142 58,003 57,825 41,818 41,472 40,861 Des.'i H>89.'i ... 221,167 221,327 222,240 122.4 123,2 125,8 33,394 34,442 37,229 July August September 221,255 223,604 224,242 140,084 141,406 141,616 145.4 144,7 144.9 58,552 59,020 59,014 41,165 41,186 41,211 62.3 87.' 6 126.6 130.6 129,6 35,749 39,525 37,812 October November December 227,536 230,386 236,249 142,944 143,568 H> 146, 406 144,9 145.2 145,8 60,778 61,588 62,054 42,325 42,681 1)42,766 63'. 2 sail 132.0 133.5 r!34.8 38,943 38,344 B>r39,674 r228,609 »p236,617 r!40,370 p!44,174 r!41.5 r!43,8 [H>pl46.8 r59,875 r61,692 »p62,847 r40,842 r41 ,825 p42,407 83,7 84.3 78.8 r!34.9 |H)el35.6 p36,431 p63.'6 1977 1978 January February March (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) April May June July August September October . November December NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ®. Current high values are indicated by[H); for series that move counter to movements in general business activity, current low values are indicated by 0). Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "N A", not available. Graphs of these series are shown on pages 13,15, 23, and 24. 64 APRIL 1978 CYCLICAL INDICATORS B CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS —Con. MAJOR ECONOMIC PROCESS Hj FIXED CAPITAL INVESTMENT-Con. Minor Economic Process Business Investment Commitments L, L, L Timing Class L, L, L Value of manufacturers' new orders, capital goods industries, nondefense Contracts and orders for plant and equipment Year and month 10. Current dollars 20. Constant (1972) dollars (Bil.dol.) Revised 1976 27. Constant (1972) dollars 24. Current dollars (Bil.dol.) (Bil.dol.) 3 U L, L L, L, L 3 Revised 3 Revised L, C, U U, Ig, U C, Lg, Lg 9. Construction contracts for commercial and industrial buildings, floor space1 11. Newly approved capital appropriations, 1,000 manufacturing corporations1 97. Backlog of capital appropriations, manufactur- (Bil.dol.) (Bil. dot.) Square feet (Millions) (Bil.dol.) Square meters2 (Millions) 3 Revised 14.35 13.97 15.10 10.40 10.18 10.73 11.13 11.44 11.89 8.16 8.41 8.49 44.27 50.95 52.32 4.11 4.73 4.86 11 ! 38 14.29 13.41 15.82 10.38 8.69 8.76 8.77 52.83 52.65 53.85 4.91 4.89 5.00 12^22 11.15 11.85 12.21 12.35 July August September 15.97 14.81 16.43 11.28 10.48 11.48 12.90 12.35 13.24 9.17 8.78 9.28 52.21 50.78 48.53 4.85 4.72 4.51 nisa October November December 16.85 15.78 16.09 11.76 10.95 11.16 13.80 12.86 13.70 9.66 8.94 9.53 51.47 52.53 54.81 4.78 4.88 5.09 14.*36 17.15 17.13 16.69 11.79 11.71 11.40 14.67 14.32 14.61 10.12 4.98 4.76 6.27 14*.63 10.01 53.56 51.27 67.45 17.57 19.18 18.49 11.99 12.98 12.37 14.69 14.89 15.49 10.08 10.16 10.42 55.88 63.20 61.12 5.19 5.87 5.68 15!65 16.58 18.31 20.20 11.05 12.21 13.22 13.94 14.53 16.12 9.32 9.76 5.43 6.60 6.30 H)17.'69 10.59 58.48 71.07 67.79 17.89 18.63 20.83 11.78 12.08 13.40 16.10 16.09 16.99 10.63 10.48 10.99 63.06 70.62 72.04 5,86 6,56 6.69 pi 7 * 6 5 20.42 E> 22.76 p21.05 13.00 E>14.42 p!3.40 16.51 i>17.88 p!7.70 10.82 1)11.41 pll.34 0)83.03 67.86 71.94 G)7,71 January February March April May June . .... 9.59 1 ing 4e!o7 46^39 45^89 47^53 1977 January February March . . April May June July August September .... .... October November December 9.83 49^29 50 .*74 54*20 ®p57!27 1978 January February March 6.30 6.68 (NA) (NA) April May June July August September .... October November December .... NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by @. Current high values are indicated by H); for series that move counter to movements in general business activity,current low values are indicated by (H). Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available. G^phsoftJ,™ it may not be reproduced without written permission from the source agency: McGraw-Hill Information Systems Company, F . W . Dodge Division (series 9) or The Conference Board ("series 11 and 97). Converted to metric units by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. 3See "New Features and Changes for This Issue,11 page iii. ) APRIL 1978 65 CYCLICAL INDICATORS B I CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS -Con. MAJOR ECONOMIC PROCESS Q FIXED CAPITAL INVESTMENT-Con. Minor Economic Process , ..... Timing Class Year and month Residential Construction Commitments and Investment Business Investment Expenditures C, Lg, Lg C, Lg, Lg 61, Business expenditures for new plant and equipment, total 69. Machinery and equipment sales and business construction expenditures (Ann. rate, bil.dol.) (Ann. rate, bil.dol.) C, Lg, U C, Lg, C Lg, Lg, Lg C, Lg, C 76, Index of N onresidential fixed investment in 1972 dollars industrial production, business 87. Structures 86. Total 88. Producers' equipment durable equip. (1967-100) (Ann. rate, bil.dol.) (Ann. rate, bil.dol.) (Ann. rate, bil.dol.) L, L, L 28. New private housing units started, total (Ann. rate, thous.) L,L,l 29. Index of new private housing units authorized by local building permits (1967-100) L, L,L 89. Residential fixed investmerit, total, in 1972 dollars (Ann. rate, bil.dol.) Revised1 1976 January February . March 114^72 159.22 164.46 166.91 131.4 132.8 134.2 113*7 36^8 76^8 1,262 1,452 1,427 102.1 101.3 101.8 April . . . May June 118J2 167.83 170.20 169.58 134.4 134.8 136.2 115^9 37.' 1 7s!g 1,405 1,468 1,508 101.9 100.8 July August September 122^55 170.85 174.95 174.51 137.9 137.6 137.0 m!5 37J 8K4 1,410 1,546 1,753 105.9 112.7 127.6 47J October . . November December 125.*22 175.12 176.88 184.22 135.7 140.1 142.3 119.'6 37^3 81 '.7 1,662 1,680 1,824 127.6 136.4 132.0 52!b January February March 130J6 181.13 183.42 190.52 142.3 143,5 144.8 124^3 37^6 87^3 1 S 393 1,751 2,090 114.9 131.5 145.4 52'.7 April May June 134^24 190.19 191.94 189.78 147,1 148.9 150.1 126^4 38.' 2 88!l 1,899 1,982 1,931 138.3 139.2 144,6 57^6 July August September [H)14o!38 195.86 200.77 203.19 151.2 151.1 152.1 127^6 38!9 88^7 2,072 2,038 2,012 141.2 152.7 146.1 57^5 October November December iss'.ii 206.02 205,21 208,06 152,6 153.5 r!54.0 128^9 D39!4 89!s 2,139 2,096 [H)2,203 159.4 B>163.1 156.1 |H> 5 9 ^ 9 January February , March . . . al46!25 206,02 [H}210,84 r!52.9 154.8 ^p!56.7 E>pl29.'4 p39.*2 fH>p90.'2 r 1,548 r 1,5 74 p2,074 128.9 130.2 144.1 p59.'6 April May June .... a149J6 44^8 96.5 47J 1977 1978 (NA) July August September October November December _j NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ®. Current high values are indicated by ED; for series that move counter to movements in general business activity, current low values are indicated by[R). Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available. Graphs of these series are shown on pages 14,25, and 26. l See "New Features and Changes for This Issue," page ill. 66 APRIL 1978 ltd) CYCLICAL INDICATORS B CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS —Con. MAJOR ECONOMIC PROCESS . . . ; . . . . |Q INVENTORIES AND INVENTORY INVESTMENT Minor Economic Process Inventory Investment L, 1,1 Timing Class Year and month L, L, L 1,1,1 36. Change in inventories on 30. Change in hand and on order in 1972 business inven- dollars tories in 1972 Monthly dollars Smoothed data data1 (Ann. rate, {Ann. rate, (Ann. rate, bil.dol.) bil.dol.) bil.dol.) 2 Revised 1976 January . February . . March ... 9.7 Inventories on Hand and on Order Revised 31. Change in book value of mfg. and trade inventories, total (Ann. rate, bil.dol.) 2 L L, L Lg, Lg, Lg 38. Change in stocks of materials and supplies on hand and on order, mfg. (Bil.dol.) Revised Lg, Lg, Lg Lg, Lg, Lg Manufacturing and trade inventories, book value 71. Current dollars (Bil.dol.) 65. Mfrs.' inventories of finished 70. Constant goods, book (1972) dollars value (Bil.dol.} (Bil.dol.) Lg, Lg, Lg 77. Ratio, constantdollar inventories to sales, mfg. and trade (Ratio) 78. Stocks of materials and supplies on hand and on order, mfg. (Bil.dol.} Revised2 Revised2 2 L, Lg, Lg 1.54 283.37 285.27 287.63 216.93 217.66 218.75 49.65 49.98 50.33 1.67 1.65 1.64 126.48 126.34 127,88 26.1 33.0 42.3 0.45 1.10 0.65 289.81 292.55 296.08 219.59 220,52 222.25 50.69 51.05 51.95 1.65 1.67 1.66 128.33 129.43 130.08 13.95 12.90 11.15 21.8 30.3 36.5 0,19 -0.69 0.51 297.90 300.43 303.47 222.90 224.48 225,76 52.43 53.05 53.59 1.67 1.66 1.69 130.27 129.58 130.09 9.94 8.03 3.50 21.2 11.0 0.48 1.42 0,41 305.23 306.15 306.32 226.27 226.25 225.90 54.33 53.93 54.11 E>1.71 1.69 1.63 130.57 131.99 132.40 9.67 3.24 7.24 32.9 26.0 14.24 11.78 0,86 1.55 309.06 311.23 314.88 227.06 227.47 228.47 54.38 54.59 54.79 1.66 1.64 1.61 134.17 135.03 136.58 7,60 16.00 12.72 12.56 11.56 12.36 36.0 31.4 28.9 0.86 1.38 0.15 317.87 320.49 322.90 229.10 230.24 231.61 55.21 56.31 56.89 1.64 1.65 1.65 137.44 138.81 138.96 12.65 14.54 B>15.84 14.5 32.9 31.9 -0.78 0.92 1.10 324.11 326.85 329.51 232.73 234.40 235.36 57.49 57.57 57.97 1.66 1.66 1.66 138,18 139.10 140.21 0.60 0.62 1.48 330.46 332.67 332.64 235.42 236.39 236.47 58.50 59.07 58.91 1.65 1,65 1.62 140.80 141.42 142.90 1.33 1.60 (NA) 237,44 r335.76 [H)p338.25 ®p237.96 E>59.68 59.57 7.26 8,65 17.39 April May June 12J 14.06 20.22 July August September }3.8 11.30 12.48 October November December -lie 9.34 5.81 6.30 -0.68 -2.70 -4.84 -1.75 6.13 18.4 22.8 28.3 -0.14 11.45 12.69 14.07 2.1 0.28 1977 January February . March April May June 19.91 9^7 U.2 |H>43.7 July August September [H)!^? 10.88 H> 24.05 12.49 October November December 8.' 7 17.50 14.54 12.18 5.06 9.85 11.4 26.6 -0.5 11.74 p9.85 r31.2 p25,0 (NA) (NA) 3.28 E)1.77 1978 January February March pll',3 22.02 p-12.54 (NA) (NA) (NA) rl.69 pi. 65 (NA) 144.23 D145.83 (NA) April May June July August September October November December NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted seriesare indicated by @. Current high values are indicated byE); for series that move counter to movements in general business activity,current low values are indicated by[H). Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available. Graphs of these series are shown on pages 14,16,27, and 28. 1 Series is a weighted 4-term moving average (with weights 1,2,2,1) placed at the terminal month of the span. 2 See "New Features and Changes for This Issue," page iii. APRIL 1978 67 CYCLICAL INDICATORS CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Con. MAJOR ECONOMIC PRQCFSS . .. BH PRICES, COSTS, AND PROFITS Minor Economic Process Stock Prices Sensitive Commodity Prices U,L, L 1,1,1 Timing Class 92. Change in sensitive prices Year and month Monthly data Smoothed data2 (Percent) (Percent) 23. Index of industrial materials prices© (1967=100) L(L,L 19. Index of stock prices, 500 common stocks® (1941-43-10) Profits and Profit Margins U L, L I, L, I Corporate profits after taxes 16. Current dollars (Ann. rate, bil.dol.) 18. Constant (1972) dollars (Ann. rate, bil.dol.) l,C,L Corporate profits after taxes with IVAandCCA 1 79. Current dollars (Ann. rate, bil.dol.) L, L, L L, C, L 80. Constant (1972) dollars (Ann. rate, bil.dol) 22. Ratio, profits (after taxes) to total corporate domestic income (Percent) 1976 January February March April May June 183.6 186.6 193.2 96.86 100.64 101.08 96!i 67*.2 63^4 47^5 i6!s 1.93 0.66 0.76 0.55 2.28 0.29 1.77 0.71 1.18 1.47 200.9 202.7 205,2 101.93 101.16 101.77 93J 68*. 6 63 !i 4e!a [H>l6!5 2.46 0.08 214.1 209.6 206.2 104.20 103.29 BIOS. 45 94^6 68 '.5 67^6 49^6 l6.'2 -0.75 1.48 1.47 1.02 4.17 3.85 0.88 1.79 201,6 201,0 203.2 101.89 101.19 104.66 9CL9 65.*6 59^2 43J 9^9 0.84 0.20 1.11 210.2 216.4 83)222.8 103.81 100.96 100.57 97^2 69^2 6l!6 43^8 l6!6 2.01 1.46 0.38 221.9 218.1 206.4 99.05 98.76 99.29 104.*3 E>73!2 70^5 49!9 l6!2 -0.05 -0.02 rO.25 204.1 202.7 202.9 100.18 97.75 96.23 103^6 7K5 E>79!7 »55!4 io!6 rO.48 rO.64 rl.02 204.7 203.8 210.9 93.74 94.28 93.82 DH05.0 7K3 r71,5 r49.0 10.*2 rl.60 rl.64 219.7 219.9 219.8 90.25 88.98 88,82 (NA) (NA) (NA) 221.2 "92.49 1.37 -1.61 . .. July August September October November December -3.08 D2.03 1977 January February March .... April May June -0.64 0)4.80 1.42 0.25 0.61 -0.85 July August September October . .... November December -0.07 1.08 rO.32 0.18 rl.73 2.01 1978 January February March April May June 1.91 0.27 1.03 1.23 9 (NA) (NA) July August September October November December NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ©, Current high values are indicated by[H); for series that move counter to movements in general business activity, current low values are indicated by [H). Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available. Graphs of these series are shown on pages 14, 29, and 30.XIVA means inventory valuation adjustment; CCA means capital consumption adjustment. "Series is a weighted 4-term moving average (with weights 1,2,2,1) placed at the terminal month of the span. 3Average for April 4, 11, and 18. "Average for April 5, 12, 19, and 26. APRIL 1978 KUI CYCLICAL INDICATORS CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Con. MAJOR ECONOMIC PROCESS Q| PRICES, COSTS, AND PROFITS-Con. Minor Economic Process Profits and Profit Margins-Con. L, L, L U L,L U, L,L Timing Class 81. Ratio, profits (after Cash Flows 15. Prof its (after 17. Ratio, price taxes) per dollar to unit labor L, L, L Unit Labor Costs and Labor Share Lg, Lg, Lg UL,L Net cash f lovv, corporate Lg, Lg, Lg ' Lg, Lg, Lg Lg, Lg, Lg 63. Index of unit labor cost, 68. Labor cost per unit of real 62. Index of labor cost per 64. Compensation of employ- sector product, nonfinancial corporations manufacturing of national income taYP<;l w/ith IV/A Year and month and CCA to corp. domestic income1 manufacturing corporations (Percent) (Cents) manufacturing (1967=100) 34. Current dollars (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) 35. Constant (1972) dollars (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) (1967=100) (Dollars) (1967=100) (Percent) 1976 January February March 6.9 5.5 121.9 122.7 122.4 151.0 109.3 165.1 0.870 143.9 143.1 143.8 75.7 April May June 6.8 H>5.6 122.4 123.0 123.5 154.0 110.3 167.1 0.880 144.7 144.5 144.8 75.7 July August September 7.1 5.3 |H)124.4 124.3 123 3 1 56 . 2 110.2 169.4 0.892 144.5 144.7 146.7 75.9 October November December 6 1 5 0 123 1 123 0 123 5 153 0 106 3 173 0 0 916 147.4 147 9 148 4 H)76 6 5.9 5.3 122.1 121.5 122.3 160.7 110.5 175,2 0.930 150.8 152.6 152.8 76.5 6.6 5.5 123.1 123.6 123.2 167.6 178.5 0.943 153.4 153.9 154.6 76.0 July August , September H>7.5 5.0 123.6 123.8 123.7 167.0 111.2 179.7 0.949 154.5 154.4 155.1 75.8 October November December 6.7 5.4 123.0 122.8 H22.0 IBS rl 69.0 rllO.4 r!82.1 .. . E>0.964 157.0 157.7 rl59.4 75.9 r!63.2 r!65 0 53) pi 66 1 (NA) 1977 January February March April May June . . ... ... 0)113.8 1978 January February . March ( NA} (NA} r!20 1 H19 8 nllQ 7 (NA) (NA) [H)pl89.9 (NA) April May June July August September October November December NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to containno seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ®. Current high values are indicated bySD; for series that move counter to movements in general business activity, current low values are indicated by[H>. Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available. Graphs of these series are shown on pages 16, 30,and 31. r !VA means inventory valuation adjustment; CCA means capital consumption adjustment. APRIL 1978 69 CYCLICAL INDICATORS CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Con. MAJOR ECONOMIC PROCESS ^1 MONEY AND CREDIT Minor Economic Process Velocity of Money Money 1,1,1 Timing Class SB. Change in money supply (M1) Year and month (Percent) 102. Change in money supply plus time deposits at commercial banks (M2) (Percent) 1976 L, L, L 1,1.1 L, C, U 104. Change in total liquid assets Monthly data Smoothed data1 (Percent) (Percent) Revised2 Revised2 105. Money supply (Ml) in 1972 dollars c,c,c L, L, L 106. Money supply (M2) in 1972 dollars 107. Ratio, gross national product to money supply (Ml) (Bil.dol.) (Bil.dol.) (Ratio) C, lg,C Credit Flows L,L,U 33. Net change 108. Ratio, personal income in mortgage debt to money supply held by financial institutions and (M2) life insurance companies (Ann. rote, (Ratio) oil. del.) January February March 0.48 0.68 0.47 1.01 1.27 0.68 0.88 0.88 0.67 0.99 0.92 0.82 222.0 223.1 223.6 503.3 508.8 511.0 5.547 1.978 1.971 1.971 49.33 49.21 57.10 April May June 0.73 0.60 0.07 0.94 0.78 0.42 0.85 0.89 0.70 0.80 0.80 0.81 224.2 224.2 223.4 513.3 514.3 514.3 5.588 1.969 1.966 1.965 49.75 43,73 46,74 July August September 0.20 0.56 0.33 0.74 0.84 0.92 0.92 0.73 0.84 0.82 0.81 0.81 223.0 223.2 223.0 516.0 517.9 520.5 5,652 1.970 1,964 1.957 54,76 52.52 50.71 October November December 1.08 0.16 0.64 0.91 1.04 1.04 0.73 0.74 0.85 0.87 0.85 224.5 224.3 224.8 525.1 528,6 532.0 5.643 1.950 1.956 1.961 55,18 66.28 64.81 0.92 0.76 0.80 0.95 1.13 0.85 0.82 0.87 0.96 224.7 223,5 223.6 532.6 531.5 532.4 5.721 1.948 1.964 1.977 53.69 58,24 71.41 0.12 0.59 0.90 0.46 0.75 0.91 0.62 0.71 0.97 0.88 0.77 224.3 223.3 223.5 532.7 532.2 533.6 5.791 1.974 1.975 1.969 81.41 84.26 [H)96.78 July August September 0.99 0.52 0.73 1.12 0.64 0,75 0.97 1.06 0.78 0.87 0,99 225.0 225.3 226.1 537.8 539.2 541.1 5.8i6 1.966 1.966 1.967 76.87 85.91 94.13 October November December 0.90 0.03 0.60 0.81 0.45 0.47 1.07 [H>227.4 226.4 226.8 543.7 543.8 E> 544.1 5.851 1.980 1.993 2.009 88.48 88.43 93.00 0.80 226.8 225.2 p224.0 543.7 542.2 p540.3 EDP5.870 1.998 r2.000 Dp2.014 rBl.90 P76.45 B)1.28 1977 January February March 0.74 0.44 0.63 April May June i>1.16 . i.n Dl.26 1.06 0.89 Di.n 1.10 1978 January . February March April May June July August September -0.09 pO.29 0.74 0.37 1.01 0.68 1.03 0.92 pO,44 pO.59 pO.81 9 a 1.30 (NA) 0.93 .... October November December NOTE: Series ara seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ©. Current high values are indicated by[H); for series that move counter to movements in general business activity, current low values are indicated by[R). Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available. Graphs of these series are shown on pages 14,32, and 33. l Serie"s is a weighted 4-term moving average (with weights 1,2,2,1) placed at the terminal month of the span. 2 See "New Features and Changes for This Issue," page iil. 3 Average for weeks ended April 5, 12, and 19. 70 APRIL 1978 IM:II CYCLICAL INDICATORS CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Con. MAJOR ECONOMIC PROCESS ^H MONEY AND CREDIT-Con. Minor Economic Process Credit Flows-Con. L,L,L Timing Class 112. Net change in bank loans to businesses Year and month (Ann. rate, bil.dol.) L, L, L 113. Net change in consumer installment debt (Ann. rate, bil.dol.) Credit Difficulties L,L,L 110. Total private borrowing (Ann. rate, mil. dol.) L,L,L 14. Current liabilities of business failures @ (Mil. dol.) Bank Reserves L(L,L L, Lg, U L,U,U L, Lg, Lg 94. Member bank borrowing from the Federal Reserve® 39. Delinquency 93. Free rate, 30 days reserves @ and over, consumer installment loans (Percent) Interest Rates (Mil. dol.) (Mil. dol.) 119. Federal funds rate© (Percent) C, Lg, Lg 114. Treasury bill rate© (Percent) 1976 January February March 11 .59 4.00 -34.49 15.97 21.14 20.45 177,260 257.07 211.76 247.65 2.49 2.46 2.45 130 -62 378 79 76 58 4,87 4.77 4.84 4 96 4.85 5.05 April May June -36.50 4.43 6,04 22.93 21 .13 18.41 185,504 206.42 233.28 373.64 2.34 2.41 2.40 45 261 -3 44 121 120 4.82 5.29 5.48 4.88 5.18 5,44 July August September -10.19 -5.72 7 16 17.36 18,34 21 97 204,444 305.55 263.96 250 32 2.39 2.39 -53 193 212 123 104 75 5.31 5.29 5 25 5.28 5.15 5 08 October November December 9.70 10.88 3.47 13.09 19 61 29.30 229,796 123 280 66 84 62 5.03 4.95 4.65 4.93 4.81 4.35 7 88 15 76 9 48 25 87 23 81 [H}35.65 433 255 624 61 79 110 4 61 4 68 4 60 4 66 4.61 2 53 r8.18 r!3.91 34 78 31 86 29 06 276 100 73 200 262 4 73 5 35 r-0 65 H3.04 r5 93 29 57 31 81 28 21 [H> 297, 804 336 1,071 634 5.42 5.90 rll 70 31 51 34.24 32.83 183.57 277.60 200.44 2 36 2.53 [H)2.19 2.40 no 1977 January February March , April May June July August September .. . October November December r!4.05 r2 35 p287,036 168 54 194 20 248 20 2 37 2 37 2.37 155 207 27 473 89 305 86 2 40 2 43 -62 72 577 82 338 25 [H)96 99 2 41 115 69 200.29 168.32 2.38 2.34 2 36 2.41 2.24 2 36 -114 -149 12 -872 -443 [H> -980 4.69 5.39 [H>1 ,319 -705 -384 840 558 -176 481 405 p344 4 54 4 94 5.00 6 14 5.15 5.50 5.77 6.47 6.51 6.56 6.19 6.16 6.06 6.70 6.78 6.45 [H>6.46 6.32 1978 January February March rll 93 liT>r/>d ?n p21 12 1 on 71 April May June 29 09 31 93 (NA) (NA) ^w/n \nt\) (NA) r-272 p-36 *-193 X 381 E)6,79 2 6.84 3 6.31 July August September October November December NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ©. Current high values are indicated by H); for series that move counter to movements in general business activity, current low values are indicated by |H>. Series numbers are fondentification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available. Graphs of these series are shown on pages 33, 34, and 35. 1 Average for weeks ended April 5, 12, and 19. 2Average for weeks ended April 5, 12, 19, and 26. 3Average for weeks ended April 6, 13, 20, and 27. II APRIL 1978 '1 CYCLICAL INDICATORS CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS-Con. MAJOR ECONOMIC PRQCFSS Minor Economic Process . RHj MONEY AND CREDST-Con. Interest Rates-Con. ... Timing Class Lg, lg, Lg C, Lg, Lg U, Lg, Lg 116. Corporate bond yields® 11 5. Treasury bond yields© 117. Municipal bondyields@ (Percent) (Percent) (Percent) Year and month Lg, Lg, Lg Outstanding Debt Lg, Lg, Lg 118. Secondary 67. Bank rates market yields on short-term onFHA business loans x mortgages© ® (Percent) (Percent) Lg, Lg, Lg Lg, Lg, Lg 109. Average prime rate charged by banks© 66. Consumer installment debt (Percent) (Mil.dol.) Lg, Lg, Lg 72. Commercial and industrial loans outstanding, weekly reporting large commercial banks (Mil.dol.) Lg, Lg, Lg 95. Ratio, consumer installment debt to personal income (Percent) 1976 January February March 8.97 8.71 8.73 6.93 6.92 6.88 7.07 6.94 6.92 9.06 9.04 (NA) 7^54 7.00 6.75 6.75 161,283 163,045 164,749 120,242 120,575 117,701 12.15 12.18 12.22 April May Juno 8.68 9.00 8.90 6.73 7.01 6.92 6.60 6.87 6.87 8.82 9.03 9.05 7.*44 6.75 6.75 7.20 166,660 168,421 169,955 114,659 115,028 115,531 12.26 12.31 12.38 July August ... September 8.76 8.59 8.37 6.85 6.82 6.70 6.79 6,61 6.51 8.99 8.93 8.82 7i80 7.25 7.01 7,00 171,402 172,930 174,761 114,682 114,205 114,802 12.36 12.41 12.47 October November December 8.25 8.17 7.90 6.65 6.62 6.38 6,30 6,29 5.94 8.55 8.45 8.25 7.*28 6.78 6.50 6.35 175,852 177,486 179,928 115,610 116,517 116,806 12.43 12.39 12.41 January February March 7.96 8.18 8.33 6.68 7.16 7.20 5.87 5.89 5.89 8.40 8.50 8.58 y'.is 7,50 6,25 6,25 6.25 182,084 184,068 187,039 117,463 118,776 119,566 12.52 12.46 12.48 April May June 8.30 8.38 8.08 7.13 7.17 6.99 5.73 5.75 5.62 8.57 (NA) 8.74 7.52 7.37 7.93 6.25 6.41 6,75 189,937 192,592 195,014 119,777 r!20,459 rl21,618 12.58 12.69 12,79 July August September 8.12 8.06 8.12 6.98 7.01 6.94 5.63 5.62 5.51 8.74 8.74 8.72 7.96 7.87 8.22 6.75 6.83 7.13 197,478 200,129 202,480 r!21,564 r!22,651 H23.H5 12.83 12.92 12.97 October November December 8.21 8.26 8.39 7.08 7,16 7.24 5,64 5,49 5.57 8.78 8.78 8.91 8.35 8.66 D8.77 7.52 7.75 7.75 205,106 207,959 210,695 r!24,120 r!25,291 rl 25, 487 12.95 12.98 12.98 8.70 8.70 [H),8.70 7.51 7.60 D7.63 5.71 5.62 5.61 9,11 (NA) D9.29 (NA) 7.93 8.00 »8.00 213*119 r!26,481 r!28,539 H)215,780 (NA) (H)pl30,299 13.11 |H}pl3.22 (NA) 1977 1978 January February March 3 April May June July August September . . 8.84 a 7.73 3 5.76 "8.00 9 132,025 , October November December NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to containno seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ®. Current high values are indicated by[H); for series that move counter to movements in general business activity, current low values are indicated by (H). Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available. Graphs of these series are shown on pages 16,35, and 36. »Beginning February 1977, data are monthly and represent the banking system. 2 Average for weeks ended April 7, 14, and 21. 3Average for weeks ended April 6, 13, and 20. *Average for April 1 through 25. 3Average for weeks ended April 5, 12, and 19. 72 APRIL 1978 ltd) CYCLICAL INDICATORS DIFFUSION INDEXES AND RATES OF CHANGE 01 DIFFUSION INDEXES 950. Twelve leading indicator components (series 1,3, 8, 12, 19, 20,29,32,36,92,104, Year and month 951. Four roughly coincident indicator components (series 41,47,51,57) 952. Six lagging indicator components (series 62, 70, 72, 91, 95, 109} 961 . Average workweek of production workers, manufacturing (21 industries) 105) 1-month span 6-month span 1 -month span 6-month span 1 -month span 6-month span 1-month span 9-month span 962. Initial claims for State unemployment insurance, week including the 12th (51 areas) 1 -month span C1) 1976 9-month span 963. Number of employees on private nonagricultural payrolls (172 industries) 1-month span 6-month span (l) January February March 58.3 66.7 70.8 75.0 91.7 79.2 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100,0 100.0 50.0 33.3 75.0 16.7 66.7 58.3 73.8 33.3 31.0 90.5 64.3 59.5 94.1 41.2 10.8 76.5 69.6 70.6 78.5 77.9 74.1 83.1 81.7 79.9 April May June 50.0 54.2 54.2 75.0 66.7 62.5 100.0 100.0 100.0 75.0 75,0 83.3 83.3 83.3 83.3 11.9 92.9 23.8 52.4 19.0 11.9 52.9 56.9 22.5 29.4 17.6 79.4 66.6 54.1 79.4 70.9 68,6 July. August September 41.7 37.5 33.3 50.0 54.2 66.7 50.0 66.7 75.0 100.0 100.0 100,0 66.7 83.3 38.1 23.8 23.8 40.5 50.0 52.4 66.7 29.4 38.2 17.6 62.7 56.9 57.3 47.1 69.8 57.0 57.3 63.7 October November December 54.2 58.3 58.3 50.0 58.3 75.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 66.7 41.7 50.0 83.3 83.3 83.3 69.0 73.8 54.8 61.9 71.4 71.4 90.2 29.4 90.2 37.3 88,2 88.2 42.4 69.5 73.0 69.8 73.5 78,5 29.2 50.0 83.3 r83.3 r75,0 100.0 100.0 100.0 66.7 75.0 91.7 83.3 83.3 100.0 97.6 47.6 88.1 92.9 81.0 39.2 25.5 49.0 74.5 70.6 68.6 75.0 73.5 82.3 89.0 86.6 83.1 r54.2 37.5 r50.0 r75.0 75.0 75.0 100.0 100.0 83.3 83.3 r66.7 54.2 100.0 75.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 42.9 57.1 73.8 69.0 69.0 95.2 68.6 23.5 37.3 57.8 53.9 74.5 77.6 68.6 63.7 80,5 71.5 68.0 50.0 79.2 50.0 r62.5 75.0 75.0 r58.3 100.0 100.0 100.0 54.8 57.1 57.1 64.3 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 80,4 24.5 82.4 65,7 82.4 68.6 65.7 50.0 61.3 68.3 68.3 72.1 70.8 58.3 58.3 100.0 100.0 100.0 75.0 83.3 100.0 76.5 41.2 90.2 p70.6 100.0 3 100.0 59.9 75.9 73.8 r75.0 r80.8 p82,8 62.5 100.0 75.0 100.0 50.0 25.0 100.0 100.0 75.0 75.0 0.0 1977 January February March April May June July August September October November . December .... 62.5 66.7 70.8 r75.0 54,2 25.0 100.0 100.0 2 60,0 83,3 83.3 66.7 100.0 100.0 "100.0 7.1 9.5 81.0 52.4 47.6 4.8 r26.2 p59.5 (NA) 1978 37.5 62,5 January February March 2 35.0 25.0 75.0 3 100.0 100.0 100.0 "87.5 0.0 r74.8 P88.1 33.1 p45.1 (NA) r66.9 r70.3 p73.8 April May June July August September October November December .... .... NOTE: Figures are the percent of series components rising. (Half of the unchanged components are counted as rising.) Data are centered within the spans: 1-month indexes are placed on the 2d month, 6-month indexes on the 4th month, and 9-month indexes on the 6th month of the span. Diffusion indexes 961, 962, and 963 are computed from seasonally adjusted components; indexes 950,951, and 952 are computed from the components of the composite indexes. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; and "NA", not available. Graphs of these series are shown on page 37. x See "New Features and Changes for This Issue, " page iii. 2 Excludes series 12 and 36 for which data, are not yet available. 3 Excludes series 57 for which data are not yet available. ^Excludes series 70 and 95 for which data are not yet available. ItCII APRIL 1978 73 CYCLICAL INDICATORS C DIFFUSION INDEXES AND RATES OF CHANGE—Con. HB DIFFUSION INDEXES-Con. Year and month 964. Value of manufacturers' new orders, durable goods industries (35 industries) 1 -month span 1976 9-month span 965. Newly approved capital appropriations, deflated, The Conference Board' {17 industries) 1-quarter span 967. Index of industrial materials prices ® (13 industrial materials) 1 -month span 9-month span 988. Index of stock prices, 500 co mm on stocks® (62-65 industries)2 1 -month span 969. Profits, manufacturing, Cit bank (about 1,000 corporations) 1-quarter span 4-0 moving avg. 1 -month span 6-month span 9-month span 83.3 83.3 83.3 65.4 61.5 73.1 65.4 65.4 80.8 100.0 83.1 53.1 90.8 93.8 95.4 63 *57 68.8 83.3 64.6 68.8 66.7 70.8 65.4 65.4 69.2 69.2 73.1 65.4 31.5 41.5 50.8 89.2 93.8 64.6 55 *55 66.7 68.8 52.1 70.8 70.8 75.0 73.1 34.6 34.6 57,7 61.5 76.9 80.0 43.1 56.2 45.4 56.5 62.9 53 *54 52.1 62.5 60.4 66.7 77.1 83.3 50.0 61.5 65.4 76.9 73.1 69.2 15.4 50.8 91.9 57.3 56.5 48.4 55 *57 50.0 58.3 54.2 81.2 91.7 85.4 69.2 73.1 80.8 57.7 50.0 50.0 46.0 27.4 43.5 33.0 43.5 54.8 55 '56 37.5 75.0 58.3 83.3 75.0 83.3 34.6 34.6 15.4 50.0 46.2 46.2 49.2 37.0 46.0 54.8 29.0 17.7 60 p53 60.4 72.9 58.3 87.5 79.2 r66.7 34.6 50.0 50.0 45.8 "29.2 A 41.7 56.5 23.4 15.3 26.6 27.4 22.6 53 (NA) 62.5 43.8 62.5 66.7 58.3 r70.8 r66.7 r72.9 p79.2 50.0 "37.5 57.7 M5.8 "62.5 * 75.0 11.3 66.9 45.8 19.4 16.1 61 4-quartDr span © Revised3 Revised3 January February March 67.1 74.3 65.7 91.4 94.3 97.1 56 April May Juno 54.3 48.6 45.7 80.0 91.4 84.3 62 July 82.9 78.6 88.6 44 September 71.4 48.6 51.4 October November December 61.4 60.0 71.4 82.9 85.7 82.9 59 January February March 60.0 48.6 77.1 91.4 88.6 77,1 50 April May June 31.4 60.0 45.7 82.9 82.9 82.9 74 July August September 37.1 68.6 65.7 85.7 85.7 80.0 42 October November December 62.9 65.7 65.7 88.6 p85.7 p45 AUQUSt 986. Index of industrial production (24 industries) '69 '65 *64 *73 1977 A 5 *72 '73 p74 1978 January February March April May June 40.0 71.4 p48.6 (NA) 69.2 34.6 46.2 r37.5 r60.4 p95.8 S 8.1 30.6 50.0 pS2 57.7 July August September October November December NOTE: Figures are the percent of series components rising. (Half of the unchanged components are counted as rising.) Data are centered within the spans: 1-month indexes are placed on the 2d month, 6-month indexes on the 4th month, and 9-month indexes on the 6th month of the span; 1-quarter indexes are placed on the 1st month of the 2d quarter, 3-quarter indexes on the 1st month of the 3d quarter, and 4-quarter indexes on the 2d month of the 3d quarter. Seasonally adjusted components are used except in index 968, which requires no adjustment, and index 969, which is adjusted as an index (1-quarter span only). Unadjusted series are indicated by®. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; and "NA", not available. Graphs of these series are shown on page 38. l This is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not^be reproduced without written permission from The Conference Board. Based on 65 components through November 1976 and on 62 components thereafter. Component data are not shown in table C2 but are available from the source agency. 3 See " New Features and Changes for This Issue," page ill. 4 Based on 12 components (excluding print cloth). 3 Average for April 4, 11, and 18. 74 APRIL 1978 ItCII CYCLICAL INDICATORS DIFFUSION INDEXES AND RATES OF CHANGE—Con. DIFFUSION INDEXES-Con. Year and quarter 970. Business expenditures for new plant and equipment (18 industries) a. Actual expenditures (1-Qspan) b. Later anticipations c. Early anticipations (1-Qspan) (1-Qspan) 971. New orders, manufacturing1® 972. Net profits, manufacturing and trade1© Actual Actual Anticipated (4-Q span) Actual Anticipated (4-Q span) {4-Q span) (4-Q span) 973. Net sales, manufacturing and trade 1 ® Anticipated (4-Q span) (4-Q span) 1975 First quarter .. Second quarter Third quarter.. Fourth quarter 38.9 44.4 38.9 36.1 36.1 41.7 50.0 61.1 66.7 52.8 66.7 61.1 50 54 64 71 72 59 70 73 52 53 58 66 68 58 66 67 57 58 66 70 75 62 73 74 66.7 80.6 72.2 47.2 61.1 77.8 72.2 63.9 75.0 61.1 66.7 83.3 80 80 78 78 82 84 88 86 76 74 72 74 76 80 84 82 82 81 80 80 82 84 90 87 66.7 75.0 88.9 44.4 61.1 72.2 69.4 58.3 66.7 66.7 66.7 72.2 80 83 82 82 80 86 88 84 71 74 74 76 78 80 84 82 80 81 84 85 82 86 90 86 (NA) 77.8 61.1 66.7 (NA) 82 83 (NA) 79 82 (NA) 86 87 1976 First quarter .. Second quarter Third quarter.. Fourth quarter 1977 First quarter .. Second quarter Third quarter.. Fourth quarter 1978 First quarter .. Second quarter Third quarter.. Fourth quarter DIFFUSION INDEXES-Con. Year and quarter 974. Number of employees, manufacturing and trade 1 ® 975. Level of inventories, manufacturing and trade 1 ® 976. Selling prices, manufacturing 1 ® Actual Actual Actual Anticipated Anticipated 977. Selling prices, wholesale trade 1 ® Anticipated Anticipated Actual 978. Selling prices, retail trade 1 © Anticipated Actual (4-Q span) (4-Q span) (4-Q span) 44 44 48 52 53 48 54 54 58 52 56 57 64 54 50 54 81 78 78 78 86 76 68 74 80 79 81 81 87 74 70 76 80 84 86 88 88 75 72 79 57 58 58 58 56 60 62 60 62 65 68 69 60 64 70 68 80 82 80 82 75 78 80 80 84 80 80 88 80 82 82 84 86 86 92 86 81 82 84 86 60 59 61 62 59 60 61 59 74 72 74 75 65 68 72 70 86 86 87 87 78 81 86 82' 87 86 88 90 80 86 86 84 90 86 92 92 86 84 89 88 (NA) 59 60 (NA) 67 70 (NA) 82 84 (NA) 84 90 (NA) 90 88 (4-Q span) (4-Q span) (4-Q span) (4-Q span) (4-Q span) (4-Q span) (4-Q span) 1975 First quarter .. Second quarter Third quarter.. Fourth quarter 1976 First quarter .. Second quarter Third quarter.. Fourth quarter 1977 First quarter .. Second quarter Third quarter.. Fourth quarter 1978 First quarter .. Second quarter Third quarter.. Fourth quarter NOTE: Figures are the percent of series components rising. (Half of the unchanged components are counted as rising.) Data are placed on the terminal month of the span. Series are seasonally adjusted except those, indicated by © , that appear to contain no seasonal movement. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; and "NA", not available. Graphs of these series are shown on page 39. x This is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from Dun and Bradstreet, Inc. Dun and Bradstreet diffusion indexes are based on surveys of about 1,400 business executives. ItCII APRIL 1978 75 CYCLICAL INDICATORS DIFFUSION INDEXES AND RATES OF CHANGE—Con. ^9 SELECTED DIFFUSION INDEX COMPONENTS: Basic Data and Directions of Change Diffusion index components 1977 August October September 1978 November January December Februaryr Marchp 961. AVERAGE WORKWEEK OF PRODUCTION WORKERS, MANUFACTURING ' (Average weekly hours) All manufacturing industries , + 40.3 o 40.3 (55) (57) 40.2 + 39.6 + 39.0 + 40.6 40.0 39.2 + + + 40.8 40.1 39.5 + 41.4 41.0 41.0 40.9 + + 41.1 41.3 o 40.9 o 41,8 o 40.9 41.8 + + 41.1 42.0 ... + + 40.3 o 42.3 + 40.3 42.6 o + o + 40.3 o 38.8 + 40.3 39.0 39.7 37.8 + Percent rising of 21 components + 40.4 + 40.5 o (52) (81) 40.5 39.6 (48) + 40.0 + (75) (0) 40.5 (88) Durable goods industries: Ordnance and accessories Lumber and wood products . . . . Furniture and fixtures + Stone clay and glass products Primary metal industries ... Fabricated metal products Machinery, except electrical Electrical equipment and supplies . Transportation equipment Instruments and related products Miscellaneous manufacturiny industries o , 40.2 40.3 39.4 + + 41.1 40.2 39.5 + 0 41.8 41.3 + 41.6 41.4 - r40.3 r41.0 + + 40.9 41.6 + 41.2 41.4 o 41.1 41.9 + o 41.5 41.9 - r40.3 r40.9 + + 40.7 41.7 + + 41.2 42.2 40.3 42.7 40.2 42.5 + 40.3 42.2 39.5 41.1 + 39.7 40.6 + + 40.3 41.9 + + 40.6 39.1 40.4 39.0 o 40.4 38,9 - r39.8 r38.0 + + 40.3 38.2 + + 41.3 38.7 39.5 38.6 o 39.5 38.2 + + 39.8 38.8 39.7 38.3 - r39.1 37.5 + + 39.7 38.7 + + 40.2 39,6 40.2 + 35.5 40.3 35,3 + + 40.5 35.6 + + 40.7 35.7 + 40.6 35.8 40.0 33.9 + + 40.3 35.2 + + 40.4 35.9 42.4 + 37.7 + 42.7 38.0 + 42.8 37.9 o 42.7 37.9 + o 42.9 37.9 - 42.2 r37.4 + + 42.5 37.5 + + 43.3 38.0 o + 41.7 43.9 - r41.6 r43.6 + o 41.7 43.6 + + 42.1 44.1 39.8 36.6 o 39.6 36.6 + + 40.3 37.4 + 66,803 + 68,232 40.2 39.4 37.7 + 39.9 39.9 39.8 + o 39.7 39.9 39.8 Nondurable goods industries: Food and kindred products . . . . Tobacco manufactures Textile mill products ... Appargl and other textile products + + Paper and allied products Printing and publishing Chemicals and allied products Petroleum and coal products + + 41.8 43.0 41.7 42.8 + 41.6 43.2 + + 41.7 43.3 Rubber and plastic products, n.e.c Leather and leather products + + 40.8 37.3 + 40.7 37,6 + + 40.9 37.7 o + 40.9 37.8 40.7 37.2 geiVAlUEQFMANUFACTURERS'NEWORDERS^URABlEGOQDSINDUSTHIES 1 (Millions of dollars) AH durable goods industries + PorcBnt rising of 35 components 59,269 + (69) 60,364 + 63,556 (66) - (63) 62,821 + (66) 66,165 2 9 - (66) 63,536 (40) (49) (71) Primary metals Fabricated metal products + + 8,918 + 7,033 + 8,988 7,124 + 8,696 7,509 + + 9,268 7,635 + - 9,347 7,447 + + 9,857 7,597 + + 9,946 8 S 019 + - 10,080 7,629 Machinery, except electrical Electrical machinery . . + + 10,469 + 7,439 10,576 7,381 + + 10,762 7,564 + + 10,797 8,059 + - 11,210 8,000 + 10,563 8,434 + + 11,482 8,460 + - 11,506 8,244 Transportation equipment Other durable goods industries + + 13,721 + 11,689 + 14,518 11,777 + + 17,117 11,908 - 15,247 11,815 + + 17,569 12,592 - 14,950 12,135 + + 16,514 12,382 + + 18,340 12,433 NOTE: To facilitate interpretation, the month-to-month directions of change are shown along with the numbers; (+) = rising, (o) s unchanged, and (•-) ~ falling. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; and "NA", not available. l Data are seasonally adjusted by the source agency. Data for most of the 35 diffusion index components are not available for publication; however, they are all included in the totals and directions of change for six major industry groups shown here. & Revlsed. See "New Features and Changes for This Issue," page iii. 76 APRIL 1978 ItUI CYCLICAL INDICATORS DIFFUSION INDEXES AND RATES OF CHANGE-Con. H8| SELECTED DIFFUSION INDEX COMPONENTS: Basic Data and Directions of Change-Con. 1978 1977 Diffusion index components September August October November December Januaryr Marchp February** 966. INDEX OF INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTIONl (1967=100) All industrial production . 138.1 + Percent rising of 24 components* Durable manufactures: Primary and fabricated metals Primary metals . . Fabricated metal products Machinery and allied goods Nonelectrical machinery Electrical machinery .. Transportation equipment. . . Instruments .. ... + . . . . + Lumber, clay, and glass Clay, glass, and stone products Lumber and products Furniture and miscellaneous Furniture and fixtures Miscellaneous manufactures. + . .... Nondurable manufactures: Textiles, apparel, and leather Textile mill products Apparel products Leather and products + + Paper and printing Paper and products Printing and publishing 138.5 + 138.9 (44) (62) 112.5 134.0 109.0 133.6 + + 113.5 133,8 + + + + 147.4 144.6 125.5 160.3 + + 148.9 144.2 124.3 162.2 + + 148.8 131,8 + 145.5 137.1 + - 142.9 + 147.5 + 145.6 150.7 136.6 + 124.1 + 140.7 127.7 145.2 143.9 124.3 158.3 (67) 138.6 + (71) 139.0 107.4 136.9 105.8 136.5 + 105.5 137.4 + + + + 152.5 149.2 127.4 166.7 + 151.7 147.3 122.2 164.7 150.2 144.0 116.4 163.4 + + + + 151.0 147.3 118.9 164.2 148.0 135.7 + + 152.8 137.5 + H52.1 138.1 150.5 + 137.3 151.3 137.1 + + 146.6 151.0 + 146.0 + 151.8 + 146.6 152.5 146.4 + 153.1 + 149.4 153.2 142.4 129.0 141.6 + 125.1 + 77.0 + r!43.7 r!25.8 r77.3 137.1 118.6 74.5 o 136.9 (NA) 74.5 + 74.5 74.0 + + + + + 140.3 125.0 139.1 124.2 + 137.9 125.7 o 181.3 141.9 239.5 + - 182.3 141.4 236.3 + Foods and tobacco Foods Tobacco products + + 139.3 117.0 138.3 113.5 + 137.3 113.8 113.6 + 119.3 + 133.0 119.6 + - 141.4 119.4 70.0 + 125.0 + 71.4 126,7 + + 128.1 80.0 78.1 + + 141.0 (60) + + + + + + (38) 149.7 146.0 122.0 163.1 + .... (58) H39.7 111.0 136.4 182.6 139,9 + 237.4 + .. 139.3 + 111.2 135.8 + Chemicals, petroleum, and rubber Chemicals and products Petroleum products . ... Rubber and plastics products Mining: Coal Oil and gas extraction Metal, stone, and earth minerals Metal mining Stone and earth minerals + (96) (NA) (NA) + (NA) 154.8 (NA) (NA) (NA) 137.8 + 126.2 + H38.6 127.5 + + 139.9 + 129.1 141.7 128.8 + + 143.2 130.2 H83.0 + 139.3 + r 240.1 184.6 139.7 238.7 + 184.0 138.9 240.5 + + 183.1 140.5 238.5 + (NA) 140.0 (NA) + + 139.4 + 117.5 + rl40.4 H20.6 139.2 + 113.4 140.3 (NA) 140.6 117.8 + 74.6 H18.4 + 54.8 + 119.3 + 56.5 119.7 + 104.3 126.5 + + 121.4 130.0 + 84.8 127.2 120.2 129.3 (NA) (NA) + + 78,6 122.4 (NA) (NA) NOTE: To facilitate interpretation, the month-to-month directions of change are shown along with the numbers: (+) = rising, (o) = unchanged, and (-} - falling. The "r " indicates revised; "p", preliminary; and "NA", not available. x Data are seasonally adjusted by the source agency. 2 Where actual data for separate industries are not available, estimates are used to compute the percent rising. ItUI APRIL 1978 77 CYCLICAL INDICATORS DIFFUSION INDEXES AND RATES OF CHANGE-Con. KHJ SELECTED DIFFUSION INDEX COMPONENTS: Basic Data and Directions of Change-Con. 1978 1977 Diffusion index components August October September November January December February April 1 March 967. INDEX OF INDUSTRIAL MATERIALS PRICES 2 Industrial materials price index (1967S1QQ) . . . . Psrcgnt rising of 13 compon&nts 202.7 + (50) 202.9 + (50) 204.7 - (50) 203.8 + 3 210.9 + (58) (38) 219.7 + (69) 219.9 o (35) + 219.8 (46) 221.2 (58) Dollars Copper scrap (pound). . (kilogram). . 0.382 0.842 + 0.385 0.849 + 0.392 0.864 0.388 + 0.855 0.431 + 0.950 0.475 1.047 0.460 + 1.014 0.472 1.041 + 0.495 1.091 Lead scrap (pound). . (kilogram). . 0.113 0.249 0 0.113 0.249 o 0.113 + 0.249 0.120 + 0.265 0.123 0.271 0.122 0.269 0.120 o 0,265 0.120 0.265 - 0.119 0.262 (US. ton). . o (metric ton). . 58.000 63.933 - 57.000 62.831 - 50.000 55.115 46.000 + 50.706 59.000 + 65.036 72.000 o 79.366 72.000 o 79.366 72.000 79.366 + 77.000 84.877 Tin (pound) •*• (kilogram). . 5.164 11.385 + 5.170 11.398 + 5.674 + 12.509 5.948 13.113 5.766 12.712 5.526 12.183 5.512 12.152 5.262 11,601 - 4.999 11.021 Zinc (pound). . o (kilogram). . 0.340 0.750 o 0.340 0.750 - 0.318 0.701 0.308 0.679 0.305 o 0.672 0.305 0.672 0.302 0.666 0.292 0.644 - 0.290 0.639 (yard). . + (meter). . 0.191 0.209 + 0.198 0.217 + 0.240 0.262 0.212 + 0.232 0.229 + 0.250 0.234 o 0.256 0.234 0.256 0.226 0.247 + 0.227 0.248 (pound). . (kilogram). . 0.525 1.157 - 0.492 1.085 o 0.492 1.085 0.480 + 1.058 0.484 + 1.067 0.513 + 1.131 0.530 + 1.168 0.555 1.224 - 0.544 1.199 (yard). . o (meter). . 0.582 0.636 o 0.582 0.636 o 0.582 0.636 + 0.533 0.583 0.531 o 0.581 0.531 + 0.581 0.552 0.604 Wool tops (pound). . o (kilogram). . 2.580 5.688 o 2.580 5.688 o 2.580 •*• 5.688 2.592 + 5.714 2.600 5.732 2.592 5.714 2.580 0 5.688 2.580 5.688 o 2.580 5.688 Hides (pound). . + (kilogram). . 0.371 0.818 - 0.364 0.802 - 0.358 + 0.789 0.392 + 0.864 0.425 + 0.937 0,500 1.102 0.488 1.076 0.468 + 1.032 0,473 1.043 Rosin (100 pounds). . o (100 kilograms).. 28.500 62.831 o 28.500 62.831 o 28.500 o 62.831 28.500 o 62.831 28.500 o 62.831 28.500 o 62.831 28.500 62.831 28.250 62,280 (pound). . *(kilogram). . 0.409 0.902 + 0,446 0.983 - 0.444 0.979 0.440 0.970 0,425 + 0.937 0.437 + 0.963 0,449 + 0.990 0,454 1.001 - (pound). . - 0.153 0.337 - 0.149 0.328 + 0.156 0.344 0.155 0.342 0.150 + 0.331 0.154 + 0.340 0.160 * 0.353 0.173 0.381 + 0.177 0.390 Steel scrap . Burlap Cotton, 12=market average Print cloth, average Rubber Tallow . . (kilogram). . (NA) (NA) 0.532 0.582 + 28.500 62.831 0.441 0.972 NOTE: To facilitate interpretation, the month-to-month directions of change are shown along with the numbers: (+) = rising, (o) ~ unchanged, and (™) ~ falling. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; and "NA", not available. 1 Average for April 4, 11, and 18. 2 Series components are not seasonally adjusted. Components are converted to metric units by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. 3 Based on 12 components. 78 APRIL 1978 OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT GNP AND PERSONAL INCOME Year and quarter 50. Gross national product in 1972 dollars 200, Gross national product in current dollars a. Total (Ann. rate, bil.dol.) a. Total c. Percent change at annual rate b. Difference (Ann, rate, bil.dol.) (Ann. rate, bil.dol.) c. Percent change at annual rate b. Difference (Ann. rate, bil.dol.} 217. Per capita GNP in 1972 dollars 213. Final sales in 1972 dollars (Ann. rate, dollars) (Ann. rate, bil.dol.} 1975 First quarter .. Second quarter Third quarter... Fourth quarter 1,453.0 1,496.6 1,564.9 1,600.7 0.6 43.6 68.3 35.8 0.2 12.5 19.5 1,651.2 1,691.9 1,727.3 1,755.4 50.5 40.7 35.4 28.1 13.2 10.2 1,810.8 1,869.9 1,915.9 1,961.8 55.4 59.1 46.0 45.9 13.2 13.7 10.2 pi,992.9 p31.1 1,169.8 1,188.2 1,220.7 1,229.8 -29.9 1,256.0 1,271.5 1,283.7 1,287.4 26.2 9,9 1,311.0 1,330.7 1,347.4 1,360.2 p6.5 pi,358.3 9.5 -9.6 6.4 11.4 3.0 5,495 5,571 5,709 5,740 1,189.7 1,206.2 1,217,8 1,234.4 5.1 3.9 1.2 5,853 5,915 5,960 5,965 1,246.3 1,259.4 1,269.8 1,289.2 23,6 19.7 16.7 12.8 7.5 6.2 5.1 3.8 6,064 6,143 6,207 6,253 1,301.2 1,317,5 1,331.8 1,351.5 p-1.9 p-0.6 p6,234 pi,346.9 18.4 32.5 9.1 1976 First quarter .. Second quarter Third quarter.. Fourth quarter 8.6 6.7 15.5 12.2 3.7 1977 First quarter .. Second quarter Third quarter.. Fourth quarter 1978 First quarter .. Second quarter Third quarter.. Fourth quarter GNP AND PERSONAL INCOME-Con. Year and quarter PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES 230. Total in current dollars Disposable personal income 224. Current dollars 225. Constant (1972) dollars (Ann. rate, bil.dol.) 231. Total in 1972 dollars 232. Durable goods in current dollars 233. Durable goods in 1972 dollars 227. Per capita in 1972 dollars (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) (Ann. rate, dollars) (Ann. rate, bil.dol.) (Ann. rate, bil.dol.) (Ann. rate, bil.dol.) (Ann. rate, bit. dol.} 1975 First quarter .. Second quarter Third quarter.. Fourth quarter 1,025.4 1,092.2 1,095.7 1,124.1 828.8 871.1 859.1 870.2 3,893 4,084 4,018 4,062 936.5 965.9 995.1 1,024.1 756.9 770.4 780.2 792.8 122.8 127.8 136.7 144.3 106.2 109.0 115.4 120.2 1,153.3 1,174.1 1,193.3 1,222.6 881.5 887.8 890.7 901.5 4,107 4,130 4,135 4,177 1,056.0 1,078.5 1,102.2 1,139.0 807,2 815.5 822.7 839.8 153.3 156.7 159.3 166.3 125.4 126.7 127.1 130.7 1,252.4 1,292.5 1,323.8 1,368.3 908.4 924.5 934.4 955.8 4,202 4,268 4,305 4,394 1,172.4 1,194.0 1,218.9 1,259.5 850.4 854.1 860.4 879.8 177.0 178.6 177.6 186.0 136.9 137,9 136.5 141.6 pi,400.5 p958.9 p4,401 pi,284.0 p879.2 pl84.0 p!37.6 1976 First quarter .. Second quarter Third quarter.. Fourth quarter 1977 First quarter .. Second quarter Third quarter.. Fourth quarter 1978 First quarter .. Second quarter Third quarter.. Fourth quarter NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ®. Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available. Graphs of these series are shown on pages 41 and 42. ItCII APRIL 1978 79 OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES A I NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT—Con. ^H GROSS PRIVATE DOMESTIC INVESTMENT MM PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENOITURES-Con. 236. Nondurable goods in current dollars Year and quarter (Ann. rate, bil.dol.) 238. Nondurable goods in 1972 dollars (Ann. rate, bil.dol.) 237. Services in current dollars (Ann. rate, bil.dol.) 239. Services in 1972 dollars (Ann. rate, bil.dol.) 240. Total in current dollars (Ann. rate, bil.dol.) 241. Total in 1972 dollars (Ann. rate, bil.dol.) 242. Fixed investment, total, in current dollars 243. Fixed investment, total, in 1972 dollars (Ann. rate, bil.dol.) (Ann. rate, bil.dol.) 1975 First quarter ^ . , - . . . . Second Quarter Third quarter Fourth quarter 394.0 406.4 415.0 421.9 301.8 308.4 308.6 311.5 419. 7 431.7 443.4 457.9 349.0 353.0 356.2 361.2 175.1 171,2 205.4 204.7 133.0 130.9 153.1 149.2 197,1 196.3 200.5 208,4 152.9 148.9 150.2 153.8 430.4 437.1 444.7 458.8 316.1 319.3 321.5 329.4 472.4 484.6 498.2 513.9 365.6 369.6 374.0 379.7 231.3 244.4 254.3 243.4 168.1 175.2 179.4 169.2 216.8 226.1 232.8 244.3 158.4 163.1 165.6 171.0 466.6 474.4 481.8 499.9 329.7 330.0 332.4 342.7 528.8 541.1 559.5 573.7 383.8 386.3 391.4 395.5 271.8 294.9 303.6 306.7 186.7 197.2 200.8 197.5 258.0 273,2 280.0 293,2 177.0 184.0 185.1 188.7 p505.8 p339.2 p594.3 p402.3 p314,4 p!99.7 p297.9 p!88.4 1976 First quarter Second quarter Third quarter Fourth quarter .... 1977 First quarter Second quarter Third quarter Fourth quarter 1978 First quarter Second quarter Third quarter Fourth quarter B Year and quarter GROSS PRIVATE DOMESTIC INVEST.-Con. 245. Change in business inventories in current dollars (Ann. rate, bil.dol.) J9 GOVERNMENT PURCHASES OF GOODS AND SERVICES 30. Change in business inventories in 1972, dollars 260. Total in current dollars (Ann. rate, bil. doi.) (Ann. rate, bil.dol.) 261. Total in 1972 dollars (Ann. rate, bil.dol.) 262. Federal Government in current dollars 263. Federal Government in 1972 dollars (Ann. rate, bil.dol.) (Ann. rate, bil.dol.) 266. State and local government in current dollars 267. State and local government in 1972 dollars (Ann. rate, bii.dol.) (Ann. rate, bil.dol.) 1975 First quarter Second quarter Third quarter Fourth quarter -22.0 -25.1 4.9 -3.6 -20.0 -18.0 2.9 -4.6 326.0 335.2 343.5 351.0 259.4 262.3 264.8 265.4 119.6 121.8 123.8 128.1 96.0 96,5 96,9 97.4 206.4 213.3 219.7 222.9 163.4 165.8 167.8 168,0 14.5 18.3 21.5 -0.9 9.7 12.1 13.8 -1.8 353.6 358.9 363.0 370.0 263.9 264.5 264.6 264.6 127.6 128.5 130.2 134.2 96.4 96.1 96.7 97.1 225,9 230.4 23;?. 7 235,8 167.5 168.4 168.0 167.5 13.8 21.7 23,6 13.5 9.7 13.2 15.7 8.7 374.9 390.6 400.9 413.8 263.3 270.0 274.0 277.0 136.3 143.6 148.1 153.8 97.0 101.1 103.3 104.2 238.5 247.0 252.9 260.0 166.4 168.9 170.7 172.8 p!6.5 pll.3 p417.1 p274.9 p!53.1 p!02.1 p264.1 P172.8 1976 First quarter Second quarter Third quarter Fourth quarter 1977 First quarter Second quarter Third quarter Fourth quarter 1978 First quarter Second quarter Third quarter Fourth quarter NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ®. Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available. Graphs of these series are shown on pages 42,43, and 44. APRIL 1978 ItCII OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES A I NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT—Con. NATIONAL INCOME AND ITS COMPONENTS FOREIGN TRADE Year and quarter 250. Current dollars 252. Current dollars 255. Constant (1972) dollars {Ann. rate, bil.dol.) imports of goods and services Exports of goods and services Net exports of goods and services (Ann. rate, bil.dol.) (Ann. rate, bil.dol.} 256. Constant (1972) dollars (Ann. rate, bil.dol.) 220. National income in current dollars 280. Compensation of employees 257. Constant (1972) dollars 253. Current dollars (Ann. rate, bil.dol.) (Ann. rate, bil.dol.) (Ann. rate, bil.dol.) (Ann. rate, bil.dol.) 1975 First quarter .. Second quarter Third quarter.. Fourth quarter 15.4 24.3 20.8 20.8 20.5 24.5 22.7 22.3 147.4 142.7 146.9 152.1 89.7 87.4 89.7 92.8 131.9 118.3 126,1 131.3 69.2 62.9 67.0 70.6 1,156.0 1,191.4 1,244.9 1,275,7 904.6 914.4 936.7 965.6 10.2 10.2 .16.8 16.4 17.0 13.8 153.9 160.6 168.4 168.5 93.1 95.2 97.9 96.9 143.7 150.4 160.6 165.6 76.3 78.9 80.9 83.1 1,321.0 1,353.9 1,379.6 1,402.1 999.6 1,024.9 1,046.5 1,074.2 10.6 9.4 12.2 5.9 170.4 178.1 179.9 170.6 96.9 98.5 99.8 94.8 178.6 187.7 187.4 188.8 86.3 89.1 87.6 88.9 1,450.2 1,505.7 1,540.5 1,109.9 1,144.7 1,167.4 1,203.3 p200.8 p92.6 1976 First quarter .. Second quarter Third quarter.. Fourth quarter 7.9 3.0 1977 First quarter .. Second quarter Third quarter.. Fourth quarter -8.2 -9.7 -7.5 -18,2 rl,585.7 1978 First quarter .. Second quarter Third quarter,. Fourth quarter p-22.6 p97.1 p!78.3 p4.5 NATIONAL INCOME AND ITS COMPONENTS-Con. Year and quarter 282. Proprietors' income with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments (Ann. rate, bil.dol.) 284. Rental income of persons with capital consumption adjustment (Ann. rate, bil.dol.). 286. Corporate prof its with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments (Ann. rate, bil.dol.) (NA) pi,242.5 SAVING 288. Net interest (Ann. rate, bil.dol.) 290. Gross saving (private and government) 292. Personal saving 295. Business saving (Ann. rate, bil.dol.) (Ann. rate, bil.dol.) (Ann. rate, bil.dol.) 1975 First quarter .. Second quarter Third quarter.. Fourth quarter 78.9 84.3 90.4 90.4 22.1 22.3 22.2 22.6 86.9 90.4 86.2 88.7 95.1 65.4 115.6 114.7 76.4 77.6 79.9 82.3 175.6 183.6 209.8 211.4 155.1 175.2 192.1 194.5 23.0 22.9 23,3 24.1 126.5 129.2 133.5 123.1 85.0 86.5 90.1 92.0 228.9 242.1 244.8 232.2 203.6 205,0 212.5 205.3 72.4 70.3 64.8 56.3 24.5 24.9 25.5 26.4 125.4 140.2 149.0 H44.8 95.3 98.9 251.4 211.5 51.4 68,5 73.3 76.1 74.0 92.7 103.1 76.7 75.5 1976 First quarter .. Second quarter Third quarter.. Fourth quarter 1977 First quarter .. Second quarter Third quarter.. Fourth quarter 97.0 95.5 105.0 103.1 106.1 277,2 284.5 r281.0 223.6 237.2 r233.8 1978 First quarter .. Second quarter Third quarter.. Fourth quarter P102.4 p26.9 (NA) p!09.4 (NA) (NA) p82.6 NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ©. Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available. Graphs of these series are shown on pages 45,46, and 47. ItCII APRIL 1978 81 OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES A I NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT—Con. Q 298. Government surplus or deficit total Year and quarter Q SHARES OF GNP AND NATIONAL INCOME SAVIN G-Con. (Ann. rate, bil.dol.) 293. Personal saving rate (percent of disposable personal income) Percent of Gross National Product 235. Personal consumption expenditures, total (Percent) (Percent) 249, Residential fixed investment 248. Nonresidential fixed investment 247. Change in business inventories (Percent) (Percent) (Percent) (Percent) 251. Net exports of goods and services 1975 First quarter Second quarter Third quarter Fourth Quarter -44.9 -94.7 -59.0 -58.7 6.4 9.4 7.0 6.7 64.5 64.5 63.6 64.0 10.3 9.9 9.5 9.4 3.3 3.2 3.3 3.6 -1.5 -1.7 0,3 -0.2 1.1 1.6 1.3 1,3 -47.1 -33.3 -32.4 -29.4 6.3 6.0 5.4 4.6 64.0 63.7 63.8 64.9 9.4 9.4 9.5 9.5 3.7 3.9 3,9 4.4 0.9 1.1 1.2 -0,1 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.2 -11.5 -14.9 -26.0 r-28.9 4.1 5.3 5.5 5.6 64.7 63.9 63.6 64.2 9.8 9.8 9.8 9.9 4.5 4.9 4.8 5.1 0.8 1.2 1.2 0.7 -0.4 -0.5 -0.4 -0.9 (NA) P 5.9 p64.4 p9.9 pO.8 p-1.1 1976 First quarter Second quarter Third quarter Fourth quartsr 1977 First quarter Second quarter Third quarter Fourth quarter .... 1978 First quarter Second quarter Third quarter Fourth quarter p5.0 M SHARES OF GNP AND NATIONAL INCOME-Con. Year and quartsr Percent of National Income Percent of GNP-Con. 265. Federal Govt. purchases of goods and services (Percent) 268. State and local govt. purchases of goods and services (Percent) 84. Compensation of employees (Percent) 283. Proprietors' income with IVA and CCA 1 285. Rental income of persons with CCA 1 (Percent) 287. Corporate profits with IVA and CCA 1 (Percent) (Percent) 289. Net interest (Percent) 1975 First quarter Second Quarter Third quarter Fourth quarter 8.2 8.1 7.9 8.0 14.2 14.3 14.0 13.9 78.3 76.8 75.2 75.7 6.8 7.1 7.3 7.1 1.9 1.9 1.8 1.8 6.4 7.8 9.3 9.0 6.6 6,5 6.4 6.5 7.7 7.6 7.5 7.6 13.7 13.6 13.5 13.4 75.7 75.7 75.9 76,6 6,6 6.7 6.2 6.3 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 9,6 9.5 9.7 8.8 6.4 6.4 6.5 6.6 7.5 7.7 7.7 7.8 13.2 13.2 13.2 13.3 76.5 76.0 75.8 75.9 6.6 6.4 6.2 6.6 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 8,6 9.3 9.7 9.1 6.6 6.6 6,7 6.7 p!3.3 (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) 1976 First pusrtsr Second quarter Third quarter Fourth quarter 1977 First quarter . . . . Second quarter Third quarter Fourth quarter 1978 First quarter Second quarter Third quarter Fourth quarter p7.7 NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ®. Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available. Graphs of these series are shown on pages 47 and 48. *IVA means inventory valuation adjustment; CCA means capital consumption adjustment. 82 APRIL 1978 ItCII OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES B | PRICES, WAGES, AND PRODUCTIVITY ^H PRICE MOVEMENTS Implicit price deflator, gross national product Year and month 310. Index (1972=100) 310c. Change over 1-quarter spans1 (Ann. rate, percent) Fixed weighted price index, gross business product 311. Index (1972=100) 31 Ic. Change over 1-quarter spans1 (Ann. rate, percent) Consumer prices, all items 320. Index ® 320c. Change over 1-month spans1 (1967-100) (Percent) Consumer prices, food 320c. Change over 6-month spans1 (Ann. rate, percent) 322. Index (1967=100) 322c. Change over 1-month spans1 (Percent) 322c. Change over 6-month spans1 (Ann. rate, percent) 1976 4.1 January February March 131.5 April May June 133J July August September 134^6 October November December 136*.4 4.3 166.7 167.1 167.5 0.5 0.2 0.2 5.1 5.1 4.9 180.8 179.6 178.6 5.3 168.2 169.2 170.1 0.5 0.6 0.4 4.7 5.3 5.7 179.7 181.0 181.2 4.5 171.1 171.9 172.6 0.4 0.5 0.4 5.5 4.8 4.8 181.1 181.6 181.7 173.3 173.8 174.3 0.4 0.2 0.4 5.6 6.6 7.1 182.1 181.5 182.0 6.8 175.3 177.1 178.2 0.8 1.0 0.6 8.0 8.7 8.9 183.5 187.4 188.6 0.8 2.1 0.6 10.6 12.6 13.4 7.5 179.6 180.6 181.8 0.8 0.6 0.5 7.9 6.6 6.1 191.5 192.6 193.8 1.5 0.6 0.6 11.2 182.6 183.3 184.0 0.3 0.4 0.4 5.1 4.8 4.7 193.5 194.3 194.7 5.4 184.5 185.4 186.1 0.3 0.4 0.4 5.7 6.2 7.1 p6,6 187.1 188.4 189.7 0.8 0.6 0.8 132.1 4.9 133!8 4.6 135^3 5.5 5.4 137.'l -0.2 -0.7 -0.6 0.6 0.7 0.1 -0.1 0.3 0.1 0.2 -0.3 0.3 0.3 0.9 0.1 0.3 2.2 3.5 2.7 0.6 0.9 2.7 6.5 7.7 1977 January February March 13s!l April May June 14CK5 July August September 142^2 October November December 144 .*2 5.3 139^4 7.1 14K9 5.0 4.8 143!e 5.9 14515 -0.2 7.5 6.6 3.7, 0.4 0.2 3.6 3.0 195.0 196.0 196.7 0.2 0.5 0.4 5.8 7.4 9.8 199.0 201.4 204.0 1.4 1.2 1.3 1978 January February March P 7.1 pl46\7 p!4?!8 April May June July August September October . November December . . NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain noseasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by (g). Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available. Graphs of these series are shown on pages 49 and 50. ''Percent changes are centered within the spans: 1-quarter changes are placed on the 1st month of the 2d quarter, l^month changes are placed on the 2d month, and 6-month changes are placed on the 4th month. APRIL 1978 83 OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES B I PRICES, WAGES, AND PRODUCTIVITY—Con. Q PRICE MOVEMENTS-Con. Wholesale prices, all commodities Year and month 330. Index© (1967-100) 330c. Change over 1 -month spans1 (Percent) Wholesale prices, crude materials Wholesale prices, industrial commodities 330c. Change over 6-month spans1 (Ann. rate, percent) 335. Index® 335c. Change over 1 -month spans1 (1967=100) (Percent) 335c. Change over 6-month spans1 (Ann. rate, percent) 331. Index (1967-100) 33 1c. Change over 1-month spans1 33k. Change over 6= month spans1 (Percent) (Ann. rate, percent) 1976 January February March ...... 179.4 179.4 179.7 0.2 -0.1 0.3 2.4 3.0 4.3 177.4 178.1 179.0 0.6 0.3 0.3 6.0 5.4 5.4 203.1 202.3 199.6 0.0 -0.4 -1.3 -1,4 -0.7 5.0 181.3 181.9 183.2 0.8 0.2 0.7 4.7 4.7 5.3 180.1 180.5 181.5 0.6 0.2 0.6 5.6 6.2 6.7 205,2 204 u l 208.2 2.8 -0.5 2.0 5,5 1.9 4.2 184.4 183.8 184.8 0.4 -0.1 0.5 4.3 4.9 4.9 182.7 183.8 184.8 0.7 0.6 0.6 7,0 7.8 7.2 208.6 204.2 203.7 0.2 -2.1 -0.2 -1.6 4.5 1.3 185.3 185.6 187.1 0.3 0.5 0.6 5.0 7.4 8.5 186.3 187.1 187.4 0.7 0.6 0.3 6.9 7.4 7,6 203.6 208.6 209.5 0.0 2.5 0.4 1.5 15.0 17.7 188.1 190.2 192.0 0.5 1.1 1.1 10.1 9.9 7.5 188.4 190.0 191.7 0.6 0.8 0.7 7,7 7.5 7.6 210.2 219,0 221.0 0.3 4.2 0.9 22.7 13.6 3.8 April May . June 194.3 195.2 194.5 1.0 0.4 -0.5 6.6 4.5 r3.0 193.3 194.2 . 194.7 0.7 0.5 0.3 7.7 6,9 6.7 225.5 222,3 213,4 2.0 -1,4 -4.0 -0.4 -11.3 -13.4 July August . September 194.8 194.6 195.3 0.1 0.1 rO.4 rl.9 2.6 4.4 195.9 196.9 197.8 0.6 0.5 rO.5 r6.0 5.5 5,8 209.8 206.3 20S.7 -1,7 -1.7 -0.3 r-15.4 -7.0 3,6 October November December r!96.2 197,0 198.2 HX5 0.7 0.4 6.1 8.0 9.3 rl99.0 199.2 200.0 0.5 0.3 0.5 6.1 6.5 6.5 207.4 214,4 217.2 rO.S 3.2 1.3 11.6 22.9 27,6 199.9 202.0 203.8 0.9 1.0 1.0 201.5 202.8 204.1 0.7 0.7 0.5 221.6 228.7 232.4 2.0 3.2 1.6 April . . May June July Auqust . September .... October November December 1977 January February March . . 1978 January February March April . May June July August September October November December . . . . NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain noseasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ©. Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available. Graphs of these series are shown on page 49. Percent changes are centered within the spans: 1-month changes are placed on the 2d month and 6-month changes are .placed on the 4th month. APRIL 1978 ltd* OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES B I PRICES, WAGES, AND PRODUCTIVITY—Con. ^H PRICE MOVEMENTS-Con. 332. Index (1967-100) 332c. Change over 1-month spans1 (Percent) Wholesale prices, consumer finished goods Wholesale prices, producer finished goods Wholesale prices, intermediate materials Year and month 332c. Change over 6-month spans1 (Ann. rate, percent) 333. Index (1967=100) 333c. Change over 1-month spans1 (Percent) 333c. Change over 6-month spans1 (Ann. rate, percent) 334. Index (1967=100) 334c. Change over 1-month spans1 (Percent) 334c. Change over 6-month spans1 (Ann. rate, percent) 1976 January February March 184.3 185.2 186.0 0.6 0.5 0.4 4.8 5.0 5.8 H68.8 169.7 170.5 0.7 0.5 0.5 6.5 6.0 5.8 168.0 167.5 167.4 April May June 186.6 187.3 188.4 0.3 0.4 0.6 6.3 5,4 6.2 171.2 171.7 172.5 0.4 0.3 0.5 5.4 4.8 5.2 168.5 168.6 168.9 July August September 190.0 190.1 191.7 0.8 0.1 0.8 6.3 6.6 6.5 173.3 173.7 174.9 0.5 0.2 0.7 6.3 6.3 7.1 168.9 168.4 169.3 October November December 192.4 193.4 194.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 6.1 7.7 8.1 176.5 177.0 178.5 0.9 0.3 0.8 6.6 7.3 6.7 January February March 195.7 197.3 199.3 0.7 0.8 1.0 9.2 9.1 7.5 178.9 179.9 180.7 0.2 0.6 0.4 April May June 201.1 202.0 201.6 0.9 0.4 6.8 5.4 4.3 181.7 182.8 183.7 July August September 202.2 202.6 203.5 r3.1 3.2 4.3 5.6 7.1 7.8 -0.2 -0.3 -0.1 0.7 0.2 0.7 0.7 0.1 0.2 1.1 1.1 2.3 0.0 0.5 1.0 1,9 3.5 169.3 170.2 171.8 0.0 0.5 0.9 4.9 8.2 9.1 6.0 6.7 5.9 173.0 175.2 176.8 0.7 1.3 0.9 10,7 11.4 9.2 0.6 0.6 0.5 6.4 6.2 6.4 178.1 179.6 179.5 0.7 0.8 7.7 5.2 r4.0 184.5 185.4 186.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 8.1 7.9 8.2 179.5 179.7 H80.3 0.0 0.1 0.3 3.1 2.6 3.6 188.9 189.9 191.1 1.3 0.5 0.6 8.3 8.7 8.9 180.8 181.9 182.7 0.3 0.6 0.4 5.1 7.5 7.9 192.0 193.3 194.5 0.5 0.7 0.6 184.0 186.3 187.3 0.7 1.3 0.5 -0.3 1977 October November December .. -0.2 0.3 0.2 0.4 r204.2 205.2 205.9 rO.3 rO.5 207.8 209.7 211.3 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.3 -0.1 1978 January February March April May June July August September October November December NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ®. Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The V indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "MA", not available. Graphs of these series are shown on page 49. 1 Percent changes are centered within the spans; 1-month changes are placed on the 2d month and 6-month changes are placed on the 4th month. APRIL 1978 85 OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES B I PRICES, WAGES, AND PRODUCTIVITY—Con. B(j| WAGES AND PRODUCTIVITY Average hourly compensation, all employees, nonfarrn business sector Average hourly earnings, production workers, private nonfarrn economy, adjusted1 Year and month Current dollar earnings 340. Index (1967- 100) 340e. Change over 1 -month spans2 (Percent) Current dollar compensation Real earnings 340c. Change over 6-rnonth spans2 (Ann. rate, percent) 341, Index (1967=100) 34 1c. Change over 1 -month spans2 (Percent) 341c. Change over 6-month spans2 (Ann. rate, percent) 345. Index (1967=100) 346c. Change over 1-quarter spans2 (Ann. rats, percent) 345c. Change over 4-quarter spans2 (Ann. rate, percent) 1976 January . ....... February March 179.6 180.5 181.4 0.7 0.5 0,5 7.0 6.6 6.8 107.5 107.9 108.2 0.2 0.4 0.3 1.8 1,4 1.8 186 .*7 April 182.4 183.6 184.2 0.6 0.7 0.3 6.8 6.9 6.8 108.2 108.3 108.2 0.0 0.1 -0.1 1.9 1.5 1.0 19CK7 185.5 186.6 187.5 0.7 0.6 0.5 6.7 6.7 7.1 108.6 108.7 108.7 0.4 0.1 0.0 1.1 1.9 2.2 194.'? 188.4 189.7 190.7 0.5 0.7 0.5 7.7 7.1 7.3 108.9 109.3 109.5 0.2 0.4 0.2 2.0 0.5 0.2 198,"3 January February March 192.6 193.2 194.2 1.0 0.3 0.5 7.7 7.2 7.2 109.7 109.0 108.8 0.2 -0.6 -0.2 -0.3 -1.3 -1.6 204^6 April ,.,.-. May June . 195.6 196.4 197.4 0.7 0.4 0.5 7.3 7.1 7.4 108.7 108,6 108.6 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 -0.6 0,4 1.1 207.' 8 July August September 199.4 199,9 201.2 1.0 0.3 0.7 8.0 8.0 8.1 109.3 109.2 109.5 0.6 -0.1 0.3 2.8 3.1 3.2 r21l'.3 October November December 203.3 204.1 205.2 1.0 0.4 0.5 r8.8 r8.9 p8.8 110.2 110,2 110.3 0.6 0.0 0.1 r3.0 r2.5 pi. 6 r2is!5 r208.1 r208.6 p209,9 rl.4 rO.2 pO.6 rlll.O rllO.5 pllO,3 rO.6 r-0.5 p-0,2 Mgy June July August , September October November December ... , ... 10.9 9.0 8!a g!o 8.5 9.*3 7.6 8.' 9 1977 ... 12.2 B.'e 7.8 r8.*6 7.0 p9!6 rS.l 1978 January February March p222*.4 p!3.4 April May June July August September October November December ... . NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ®. Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available. Graphs of these series are shown on pages 50 and 51. Adjusted for overtime (in manufacturing only) and interindustry employment shifts. Percent changes are centered within the spans: 1-month changes are placed on the 2d month, 6-month changes are placed on the 4th month, 1-quarter changes are placed on the 1st month of the 2d quarter, and 4-quarter changes are placed on the middle month of the 3d quarter. APRIL 1978 BCII OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES B I PRICES, WAGES, AND PRODUCTIVITY—Con. HI WAGES AND PRODUCTIViTY-Con. Average hourly compensation, all employees, nonfarm business sector-Con. Year and month Real compensation 346. Index (1967-100) 346c. Change over 1-quarter spans1 (Ann. rate, percent) 346c. Change over 4-quarter spans1 (Ann. rate, percent) Negotiated wage and benefit decisions, all industries® 348. First year 349. Average average changes changes over life of contract (Ann. rate, percent) (Ann. rate, percent) Output per hour, all persons, private business sector 370. Index (1967=100) 37Qc. Change over 1-quarter spans1 (Ann. rate, percent) 370c. Change over 4-quarter spans1 (Ann. rate, percent) 358. Index of output per hour, all persons, nonfarm business sector (1967=100) 1976 January February March .... ni'.e 6.1 10.5 8.9 4.2 April May June 112*.7 July August September m.'s October November December .. , niiz 8.0 3.2 7.2 3*.8 2.3 10.0 7.4 3\2 2.9 r.9 6.8 ns'.i ne'.i miz 5.2 7.8 3.Q 112'.9 3*. 5 llV.5 3.'6 nsiz i!g niie 2!5 ne.'i r3.'6 116*.3 p0^7 117.4 3.5 2.8 -0.1 117^2 1977 January February March 115.*2 April May June iii',9 July . August September 115.*4 October November December neiz 3.8 -0.9 i'.8 9.0 118*.9 8.9 6.0 i.'s 1.7 10.2 naie -1.0 r5.3 6.2 12(L2 (NA) 2.8 6.1 7.5 9.5 6.3 r2.3 r!20.'8 rll8.'6 1978 January February March April May June (NA) .... (NA) pl4.6 p-3.6 p8.5 pl!9*.7 P117J .. . July August September . .. October November December .... .... NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ®. Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available. Graphs of these series are shown on pages 50 and 51. Percent changes are centered within the spans: 1-quarter changes are placed on the 1st month of the 2d quarter and 4-quarter changes are placed on the middle month of the 3d quarter. APRIL 1978 87 OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES C I LABOR FORCE, EMPLOYMENT, AND UNEMPLOYMENT Q CIVILIAN LABOR FORCE AND MAJOR COMPONENTS Civilian labor force Year and month 441. Total (Thous.) 442. Employed (Thous.) Labor force participation rates 451. Males 20 years and over (Percent) 452. Females 453. Both 20 years sexes, 16-19 and over years of age (Percent) (Percent) Number unemployed 37. Total (Thous.) 444. Males 445. Females 448. Both 447. Full20 years and 20 years and sexes, 16-19 time over over years of aye workers (Thous.) (Thous.) (Thous.) (Thous.) 448. Numbar employed part-time for economic reasons (Thous.) 1976 93,652 93,757 93,936 86,293 86,552 86,828 79.8 79.7 79.7 46.6 46.6 46.6 54.2 54.2 54.4 7,359 7,205 7,108 3,127 2,999 2,976 2,526 2,501 2,441 1,706 1,705 1,691 5,924 5,735 5,714 3,292 3,204 3,176 94,391 94,568 94,549 87,217 87,527 87,432 79.9 79.9 79.8 46.8 46.8 47.0 55.2 55.2 53.8 7,174 7,041 7,117 2,924 2,906 3,074 2,475 2,435 2,464 1,775 1,700 1,579 5,703 5,630 S,869 3,224 3,275 3,159 95,176 95,208 95,089 87,801 87,806 87,777 79.9 79.7 79.8 47.2 47,2 47.2 55,6 55.4 53.8 7,375 7,402 7,312 3,076 2,971 3,031 2,637 2,648 2,613 1,662 1,783 1,668 5,871 5,983 6,018 3,191 3,213 3,369 95,197 95,741 95,936 87,844 88,255 88,446 79.7 80.0 79.9 47.0 ' 47.4 47.5 54.6 54.5 54.6 7,353 7,486 7,490 3,020 3,182 3,174 2,623 2,589 2,586 1,710 1,715 1,730 6,044 6,000 6,048 3,421 3,478 3,392 January . . . . February March , 95,719 96,320 96,623 88,653 89,047 89,478 79.7 79.9 79.8 47.3 47.6 47.8 54.2 55.1 55.6 7,066 7,273 7,145 3,010 3,073 2,898 2,416 2,512 2,536 1,640 1,688 1,711 5,623 5,697 5,550 3,243 3,441 3,271 April May June , 96,746 97,161 97,552 89,877 90,267 90,648 79.6 79.6 79.9 48.0 48.3 48.1 55.7 55.7 57.1 6,869 6,894 6,904 2,728 2,768 2,661 2,474 2,462 2,550 1,667 1,664 1,693 5,427 5,450 5,443 3,192 3,268 3,390 July August September 97,307 97,614 97,756 90,588 90,793 91 ,088 79.5 79.5 79.3 48.0 48.0 48.6 56.5 57.5 55.7 6,719 6,821 6,668 2,647 2,658 2,478 2,459 2,523 2,513 1,613 1,640 1,677 5,401 5,535 5,336 3,464 3,253 3,306 October November December 98,071 98,877 98,919 91,383 92,214 92,609 79.7 79.9 80.0 48.3 48.8 48.7 56.7 57.4 57.0 6,688 6,663 6,310 2,621 2,512 2,434 2,447 2,528 2,409 1,620 1,623 1,467 5,387 5,215 4,938 3,263 3,285 3,220 99,107 99,093 99,414 92,881 93,003 93,266 80.0 79.8 79,9 48.9 48.9 49.1 56.9 56.5 56.7 6,226 6,090 6,148 2,480 2,383 2,409 2,247 2,085 2,127 1,499 1,622 1,612 4,891 4,791 4,719 2,986 3,193 3,164 January February March April May June . ., , . . . July August September October November December , 1977 1978 January February March , .. April May June July August . . . September October November December NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain noseasonal movement. Unadjusted seriesare indicated by @. Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available. Graphs of these series are shown on page 52. APRIL 1978 OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES D| GOVERNMENT ACTIVITIES M DEFENSE INDICATORS MM RECEIPTS AND EXPENDITURES Federal Government1 Year and month 500. Surplus or deficit (Ann. rate, bil.dol.) State and local governments1 501. Receipts 502. Expenditures (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) (Ann. rate, bil.dol.) 510. Surplus or deficit (Ann. rate, bil.dol.) 511. Receipts 512. Expenditures {Ann, rate, bil.dol.) (Ann. rate, bil.dol.) 516. Defense Department obligations, total, excluding military assistance 525. Military prime contract awards to U.S. business firms and institutions 548. Value of manufacturers' new orders, defense products (Mil. dot.) (Mil. dol.) (Bil.dol.) 564. Federal purchases of goods and services for national defense (Ann. rate, bil.dol.) Revised2 1976 January February March -6CK3 31&\4 37&\7 13^3 253^8 240. '5 8,433 8,463 8,812 3,536 3,101 6,713 1.63 2.13 2.83 aeis April May June . -46^2 329J 375^3 12^9 258^4 245^5 9,140 8,567 8,676 3,489 3,543 3,854 2.75 2.12 2.36 86^6 July August September . • -53^5 337. *1 39(X6 21 J 269^6 247^9 9,835 7,096 10,351 2,535 3,652 4,985 2.22 1.92 2.14 86^4 October November December -55^9 344.' 5 400 .*4 26."5 277^5 251 !l 9,629 8,894 10,082 4,897 4,114 4,729 2.67 2.95 3.99 88i4 January February March -38*. 8 364! 9 403^7 27.3 281 !6 253^7 9,476 9,705 9,958 3,354 4,369 4,819 2.10 2.06 2,54 89^7 April May June -4CK3 37K2 411^5 25^4 288 !l 262^6 9,619 9,761 10,039 4,303 4,654 4,300 3.28 2.89 2.59 93!4 July August September -5&\9 373^2 432 J 32.*9 301^6 26&\7 9,072 10,465 9,631 4,624 4,623 4,255 2.06 2.51 2.11 95^6 October November December r-60.0 r386*3 446.3 31.1 307 .'l 276."6 10,415 10,202 9,734 p6,008 p4,096 p5,444 4.46 3.42 4.40 9&\5 p45K6 (NA) (NA) 10,641 10,413 p4,549 p3,981 3.07 2.78 1977 1978 January February March . .. (NA) (NA) p28CU (NA) (NA) p99*.2 p4.44 April May June July . . August September October November December .... NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain noseasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by @. Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available. Graphs of these series are shown on pages 53 and 54. 1 Based on national income and product accounts. 5 See "New Features and Changes for This Issue," page iii. APRIL 1978 OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES U.S. INTERNATIONAL TRANSACTIONS Qj MERCHANDISE TRADE 602. Exports, excluding military aid shipments, total Year and month 604. Exports of agricultural products (Mil.dol.} (Mil.dol.} 606. Exports of nonelectrical machinery 612. General imports, total (Mil.dol'.) (Mil.dol.) {Mil.dol.) (Mil.dol.) 616. Imports of auto mobiles and parts 614. Imports of petroleum end petroleum products 1976 January February March 9,097 8,919 9,020 1,917 1,630 1,668 1,780 1,817 1,806 9,001 9,032 9,469 2,471 2,129 2,334 1,085 1,041 1,117 April May Juno 9,369 9,564 9,722 1,892 1,950 1,948 1,818 1,836 1,871 9,643 9,182 10,154 2,699 1,874 2,739 1,221 976 1,169 July August September 9,956 9,733 9,796 2,039 2,058 2,160 1,952 1,675 1,883 10,717 10,477 10,651 2,824 2,803 3,053 1,025 1,055 1,238 9,698 9,594 10,397 2,231 1,750 1,860 1,821 1,814 1,983 10,555 10,623 11,020 2,753 3,134 3,087 871 1,128 1,221 January February March 9,664 9,896 10,164 1,762 2,004 2,112 1,831 1,892 1,859 10,971 12,882 12,082 3,075 3,247 4,171 1,083 1,248 1,299 April May June . . * 9,953 10,489 10,090 2,142 2,360 2,077 1,808 1,835 1,868 12,087 10,983 13,396 3,803 2,885 3,933 1,266 1,183 1,360 July August September 10,385 9,674 11,036 1,976 1,801 2,064 1,862 1,732 2,133 13,077 11,651 12,605 3,212 3,318 3,789 1,315 1,328 1,428 October November December 9,375 9,475 11,007 1,654 1,755 2,111 1,556 1,791 2,056 12,996 11,833 13,122 3,325 3,627 3,157 1,426 1,465 1,479 10,014 9,922 10,912 (NA) (NA) 12,393 14,439 13,693 (NA) (NA) October November . . December ... 1977 1978 January February March April May June July August September October . . . November December , NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain noseasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ®. Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available. Graphs of these series are shown on page 55. 90 APRIL 1978 OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES E U.S. INTERNATIONAL TRANSACTIONS—Con. H| GOODS AND SERVICES MOVEMENTS (EXCLUDING TRANSFERS UNDER MILITARY GRANTS) Merchandise, adjusted1 Goods and services Income on investments Year and 667. Balance 668. Exports 669. Imports 622. Balance 618. Exports 620. Imports month (Mil.dol.) (Mil.dol.) (Mil.dol.) (Mil.dol.) (Mil.dol.) (Mil. dol.} 651. U.S. investments abroad (Mil.dol.) 652. Foreign investments in the U.S. (Mil. dol.) 1976 January FBbruary March 1,552 38,591 37,039 -1,343 27,666 28,343 5,298 2,861* 1,505 40,237 38,732 -1,575 28,380 29,955 5,167 2,887 875 42,196 41,321 -2,808 29,603 32,411 5,483 2,816 42,243 42,580 -3,594 29,711 33,305 5,421 2,997 -3,118 43,015 46,133 -7,149 29,457 36,606 6,074 2,887 -3,360 44,960 48,320 -7,654 30,655 38,309 6,599 3,160 -2,989 45,447 48,436 -7,559 30,870 38,429 6,391 3,225 p-5,946 p43,136 p49,082 p-8,879 p29,490 p38,369 p5,876 p3,733 April May June July August September . . . October November December -337 1977 January February March April May June July August September . , October November December 1978 January February March (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) April May June July August September October November December NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain noseasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by @. Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available. Graphs of these series are shown on page 56. Balance of payments basis: Excludes transfers under military grants and Department of Defense sales contracts (exports) and Department of Defense purchases (imports). APRIL 1978 91 OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES F INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS HI INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION Year and month 47. United States, 721.0ECD 1 European counindex of industrial production tries, index of industrial production (1967-100) (1967=100) 728 Japan, index of industrial production (1967-100) 725. West Germany, index of industrial production (1987=100) 726. France, index of industrial production 722. United Kingdom, index of industrial production (1967-100) (1907-100) 727. Italy, index of industrial production (1967-100) 723. Canoda, index of industrial production (1967-100) 1976 January February March 125.9 127.6 128.3 141 142 143 176.8 180.6 186.3 143 147 146 149 148 150 113 116 115 130.9 138.9 139.2 141.7 143.0 144.0 April May Juno 128.7 129.7 129.8 144 146 146 191.0 187.3 190.7 147 148 148 150 150 151 116 119 113 138.7 145,1 139.8 145.0 147.0 144.6 July August September 130.7 131.3 130.6 144 146 148 193.2 192.3 192.9 148 148 151 153 153 159 116 116 117 143.5 139.1 147.8 144.1 145.8 145.0 October November December 130.2 131.5 133.0 149 149 149 193.2 197.9 197.7 151 151 152 151 157 154 118 118 118 143.6 150.4 154.7 144.6 146.3 147.1 January February March 132.3 133.2 135.3 153 r!52 152 r!93.0 r!90.4 H93.2 154 152 155 159 156 159 119 119 119 153.7 153.6 153.9 149.5 148.7 149.0 April , May Juno . 136,1 137.0 137.8 r!49 149 148 H92.1 H90.4 H93.0 152 151 152 154 151 157 118 119 rl!6 144.1 147.3 137.3 148.6 149.5 150.6 July August September , 138.7 138.1 138.5 H47 148 150 H88.3 H93.6 H92.9 151 152 154 153 153 r!55 118 118 118 138.6 139.3 143.9 148.9 150.1 149.5 138.9 139.3 H39.7 149 148 r149 r190.4 H94.4 H96.2 152 154 156 150 156 151 116 116 117 137.8 140.2 136.4 149.9 150.8 H51.4 r!38.6 r!39.0 pHl.O p!52 (NA) p159 (NA) (NA) pl!8 (NA) p!41.2 (NA) rl49.8 pi 51.1 (NA) 1977 October November December 1978 January February March (NA) April . May June July August September October November December .. NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by @. Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available. Graphs of these series are shown on page 57. Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development. 92 APRIL 1978 OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS—Con. Q CONSUMER PRICES Year and month United States Japan West Germany France United Kingdom 320. Index® 320c. Change over 6-month spans1 738. Index© 738c. Change over 6-month spans1 735. Index® 735c. Change over 6-month spans1 736. Index® 736c. Change over 6-month spans1 732. Index® 732c. Change over 6-month spans1 (1967=100) (Ann. rate, percent) (1967=100) (Ann. rate, percent) (1967=100) (Ann. rate, percent) (1967=100) (Ann. rate, percent) (1967=100) (Ann. rate, percent) 1976 January February March 166.7 167.1 .167.5 5.1 5.1 4.9 216.0 217.3 218.1 8.4 8.5 10.1 148.0 149.0 149.6 4.8 5.0 4.9 187.2 188.5 190.1 9.7 9.8 9.1 237.6 240.6 241.9 April May June 168.2 169.2 170.1 4.7 5.3 5.7 223.5 224.1 224.5 8.8 8.2 10.5 150.5 151.1 151.5 3.8 4.2 3.6 191.8 193.0 193.9 9.1 9.4 9.7 246.6 249.3 250.6 11.5 14.0 July August September 171.1 171.9 172.6 5.5 4.8 4.8 225.7 223.9 229,8 8.8 9.8 11.0 150.9 151.4 151.4 3.0 2.4 2.9 195.7 197.1 199.3 251.1 254.6 258.0 16.0 18.2 20.7 October November December 173.3 173.8 174.3 5.6 6.6 7.1 231.3 231.3 233.7 9.8 10.2 8.4 151.5 151.8 152.6 4.2 3.7 4.3 201.1 202.8 203.5 9.0 8.7 8.4 262,7 266.3 269.9 24.2 21.4 19.8 January . February March 175.3 177.1 178.2 8.0 8.7 8.9 236.0 237.2 238.7 8.2 8.8 6.1 154.0 154.9 155.5 4.7 5.3 5.2 204.1 205.5 207.3 8.8 9.1 9.7 276.9 279.7 282.4 18.9 16,0 14.7 April May June 179.6 180.6 181.8 7.9 6.6 6.1 242.6 244.9 243.6 5.6 7.1 7.2 156.2 156.9 157.6 4.5 4.2 3.2 210.0 212.0 213.6 11.3 11.2 11.0 289.6 291.9 294.9 11.2 11.9 11.6 July August September 182.6 183.3 184,0 5.1 4.8 4.7 243.0 243.0 247.3 6.9 3.7 2.8 157.4 157.3 157.1 3.1 2.2 1.8 215.5 216.7 218.6 10.3 295.3 296.7 298.3 10.2 October November December 184.5 185.4 186.1 5.7 6.2 7.1 248.6 245.7 245.1 2.2 1.1 (NA) 157.3 157.5 157.9 2.2 220.3 221.1 221.7 10.2 10,6 10.6 13.5 11.8 9.8 9.3 1977 r2.0 2.7 9.0 8.1 7.1 7.2 (NA) 299.6 301.0 302,6 9.4 9.5 8.4 6.5 6.0 1978 January February March 187.1 188.4 189.7 246.1 247.1 (NA) 158.9 rl59.7 160.1 222.8 224.4 (NA) 304.4 306.2 308,1 April May June July August September October November December NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain noseasonal movement. Unadjusted seriesare indicated by ©. Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available. Graphs of these series are shown on page 58. Changes over 6-month spans are centered on the 4th month. APRIL 1978 93 OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS—Con. Qj STOCK PRICES Qj CONSUMER PRICES-Con. 19. United States, index of stock 737. Index® 737c. Change 733. Index® 733c. Change prices, 500 over 6-month over 6-rnonth common stocks® spans' spans1 Canada Italy Year and month (1967-100) (Ann. rate, percent) (1967-100) (Ann. rate, percent) (1967-100) 748. Japan, index of stock prices® 745. West Germany, index of stock prices® 746. France, index of stock prices® 742. United Kingdom, index of stack prices® 747. Italy, index of stock prices® 743. Canada, index of stock prices® (1967-100) (1967-100) (1967-100) (1967-100) (1967-100) (1967-100) 1976 January February March 197.7 202.1 206.1 21,2 23.2 22.0 167.7 168.3 169.0 6.5 5.7 6,0 105.4 109.5 110.0 305.4 305.2 309.4 131.9 135.0 136.5 143.5 150.8 146.6 150.7 152.6 152.5 60.0 62.6 58.3 112.1 121.7 123.6 April May June 211.6 215,8 216.8 21.4 19.8 17.9 169.7 171.1 171.9 5.3 4.7 5,1 110.9 110.0 110,7 302.9 309.1 319.3 132.6 126.7 127.2 140.1 138.2 135.4 154.0 155.9 145.8 52.9 53.6 56.7 122.5 123,9 121.6 July August September . . 217.9 220.3 224.0 18.9 19.4 22.1 172.6 173.4 174.2 5.7 5.6 5.7 113.3 112.4 114.7 318.1 321.8 321.5 124.8 122.0 122.3 129.7 130.5 126.8 146.4 140.1 131.9 64.3 63.9 59.5 119.4 117.4 115.8 October November December 230.5 235.5 238.6 20.1 21.1 21.4 175.4 176.0 176.5 7.0 9.0 9.6 110.8 110.1 113.8 318.4 314.2 330.6' 115.9 115.8 117.1 112.5 108.4 115.2 116,6 121.5 132.7 51.6 50.3 55.6 108,9 104.1 103.2 1977 January . February . . March .. • ... 238.8 243.4 246.5 17.0 14.8 12.7 178.0 179,7 181.5 9.3 9.5 10.0 112.9 109.8 109.4 343.8 344.7 341.3 119.5 118.3 118.1 116.0 109.7 101.6 149.6 157.0 164.2 52.9 50.0 48.7 107.1 108.1 110.2 April May June ... 249,5 252.6 254.3 14.7 13.4 14.4 182.5 184.0 185.3 9.8 7.8 7.3 107.7 107.4 108.0 339.3 343.3 340.7 124.0 128.4 125.2 93.9 97.2 104.0 164.9 180.3 178.6 46.2 44.4 43.4 108.3 105.5 104.6 July August Soptsrnber 255.8 258.2 263.9 14.4 15.1 15.4 187.1 187.9 188.9 8.2 8.6 9.1 109.0 106.3 104.7 339.6 345.0 351.2 124.3 126.0 124.9 99.8 105.3 109.7 178.4 191.6 208.7 43.9 45.3 50.3 106.7 104,4 100.0 October November December 266.7 270.7 272.0 15.7 14.5 12.3 190.8 192.0 193.3 8.4 9.5 10.0 102.0 102.6 102.1 345.0 332.5 328.6 126.4 128.5 125.4 111.9 46.2 43.6 40.0 97.4 96.3 105.3 210.4 197.7 198.8 98.2 96.8 96.6 339.0 348.3 359.7 126.5 127.9 126.1 pl!5.4 p!19.6 rpll6.8 198.2 187.7 187.5 40.7 43.5 42.8 plOO.6 P374.8 p!25.4 pl!4.6 p!91.1 ... in. 3 100.4 1978 January February March 274.6 277.4 279.6 194.0 195.3 197.5 April May June p41.6 98.5 97.0 rplOQ.S p!05.0 July August September October November December NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain noseasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ®. Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available. Changes ovor 6-month spans are centered on the 4th month. 94 APRIL 1978 APPENDIXES A. MCD and Related Measures of Variability Part I. Monthly Series: Average Percentage Changes Monthly series Cl Period covered ' C T/C MCD T/C for MCD span Average duration of run (ADR) Cl I C 9.97 9.97 9.21 7.98 9.70 9.97 3.84 4.06 3.84 3.92 4.20 3.17 10.88 3.39 3.98 3.72 2.56 3.54 3.51 MCD 1. CYCLICAL INDICATORS 1 Average workweek of production workers mfg .. 5 Average weekly initial claims State unemployment insurance 6 New orders durable goods industries current dollars . Jan.48-Dec,77 do .. do.. 0.46 5.57 3.74 3.70 2.95 9.80 0.41 4.86 3.27 3.25 2.50 9.48 5.75 Jan.48-Nov.77 Jan.48-Dec.77 do 6.02 1.05 2.55 26.19 .70 2.61 do do do do do do do do do 9. Construction contracts, commercial and industrial do do do 12 13 14 17 19 Index of net business formation Number of new business incorporations Current liabilities of business failures (§) Ratio price to unit labor cost index mfg Index of stock prices 500 common stocks @ 20. 23 24 27 28 29 Contracts and orders, plant and equipment, 1972 dollars Index of industrial materials prices @ New orders, capital goods industries nondefense, current dollars New orders capital goods industries nondefense, 1972 dollars New private housing units started total New building permits private housing 37 40 41 42 46 47 Number of persons unemployed Employees in goods-producing industries Employees on nonagricultural payrolls Persons engaged in nonagricultural activities Index of help-wanted advertising . Index of industrial production total do ... do ... do ... do... 70 Mfg and trade inventories 1972 dollars 73 Industrial production durable manufactures Materials and supplies on hand and on order Average duration of unemployment Unfilled orders durable goods industries Money supply {M1} 1972 dollars Money supply (M2) 1972 dollars . . .55 1.66 3.47 1.14 2.16 .69 1.03 2.47 .35 5.92 1.88 5.35 5.31 5.47 4.88 5.65 1.08 4.92 4.91 4.94 4.17 1.58 1.40 1.72 1.66 1.95 2.25 3.58 3.66 .55 .33 .34 2.86 .95 2.71 2.16 1.25 .31 .15 .25 1.84 .41 .28 .22 2.17 .30 .40 .39 .58 .58 .74 . . do . . . do . ... do . Jan.53-Dec.77 1.05 1.13 .63 .81 1.00 1.63 .84 .99 .45 .37 .15 .52 .44 .40 .69 .98 .91 Jan.48-Dec.77 do...... do do...... do do .46 .70 .96 1.43 .75 .90 .20 .22 .34 .83 .46 .60 do Jan.53-Dec.77 Jan. 48- Dec. 77 do do do 1.19 1.10 3.70 1.64 .34 .38 .65 .38 do 914 Composite index of capital investment commitments do do 1.56 1.34 1.49 .33 .31 .34 .52 .93 .79 do do 10.38 2.00 .46 .52 .54 .82 1.13 1.13 910 Composite index of 12 leading indicators 1.29 3.13 .53 .21 .18 .41 .66 .90 1.02 .56 .60 .95 1.03 1.66 1.52 .25 .33 .77 2.86 2.96 2.53 1.86 .73 .69 .76 .71 .92 2.27 1.97 1.90 1.87 2.02 1.60 1.55 1.63 1.48 4 2 3 6 2 2 .84 .61 .70 f1) .92 .86 1.73 2.24 1.87 1.50 2.32 2.35 1.54 1.54 1.52 1.46 1.64 1.74 4 1 3 3 3 2 .88 .77 .94 .97 .89 .99 1.72 2.99 1.77 1.73 1.93 2.03 1.57 1.69 1.54 1.53 1.56 1.54 2 1 1 2 1 1 .64 ,76 ,55 .57 .85 .69 2.16 3.55 4,85 2.48 3.52 4.03 1.47 1.54 1.55 1.56 1.55 1.60 2 1 1 1 2 2 .57 ,78 .89 ,89 .97 .59 2.56 3.42 3.12 3.07 2.27 2.53 2 3 2 1 1 2 .92 .88 .62 .53 .16 .74 2.10 2.04 2.53 3.74 1 1 1 1 1 2 0.83 1.50 1.56 1.50 8.55 11.97 9.94 9.45 12.82 10.88 7.80 13.30 12.38 10.26 11.58 7.98 3.39 2.99 3.22 3.05 3.76 3.23 12.82 3.31 3.55 4.85 4,42 3.53 4.03 1.56 1.65 1.62 1.57 1.60 1.59 14.36 17.10 15.61 13.30 18.89 14.36 4.71 3.42 3.12 3.07 3.85 4,65 14.36 12.38 32.64 16.61 3.35 3.76 3.69 3.74 13.30 2.01 1.56 1.57 1.57 1.55 1.69 1.55 .50 .33 .38 .81 .83 .59 4.49 7.18 7.18 3.74 2.92 2.78 1.53 1.55 1.70 1,63 1.45 1.63 21.12 27.62 18.89 11.22 12.38 11.22 4.49 7.18 7,18 3.74 2.92 4.37 1 1 2 1 1 1 .68 .37 .97 .35 .86 .56 3.59 5.64 2.14 6.41 3.09 4.03 1.55 1.63 1.53 1.68 1.57 1.62 13.81 17.59 10.56 13.81 10.56 14.96 3.59 5.64 3.28 6.41 3.09 4.03 .60 .94 .64 .72 .81 .58 4.49 2.46 2.22 3.45 2.90 4.27 1.59 1.69 1.50 1.74 1.68 1.82 11.22 .72 .81 .58 1 2 2 1 1 1 6.90 9.45 8.97 4.49 3.51 3.89 3.45 2.90 4.27 .76 .55 1.11 .85 .69 1.08 .78 .89 .89 1.62 1.06 1.61 2.25 1.12 .53 .16 1.41 .50 .33 .38 .81 .83 1.01 .68 .37 1.89 .35 .86 .56 13.30 11.22 18,89 15.61 9.45 9.70 8.76 3,17 .86 .73 .67 .68 .61 .77 .43 .58 .51 .35 .37 .37 .71 .37 .39 .49 .46 .63 .78 .78 .42 .38 .61 .66 .69 .57 1 1 .69 .57 3.74 3.70 1.59 1.60 15.61 15.61 3.74 3.70 Jan.48-Dec.77 do do do do do .70 .34 .54 .49 1.35 .43 .31 .14 .34 .29 .50 .45 .88 .82 1 1 1 1 2 1 .50 .45 .88 .82 .98 .56 6.41 6.65 2.80 3.15 2.27 4.72 1.53 1.59 1.69 1.56 1.66 1.53 39.89 .21 .62 .30 .39 .36 .66 .37 6.41 6.65 2,80 3.15 3.44 4.72 do do do Jan.64-Dec.77 do Jan.48-Dec.77 do .38 .44 .37 .51 .23 .34 .36 .14 .27 .13 .14 .17 .30 .30 .35 .32 .34 .51 .16 .16 .19 1 1 1 1 2 3 2 .39 .85 .39 .28 .62 .67 .83 6.77 2.72 6.19 1.63 1.58 1.69 1.53 1.61 1.45 1.53 15.61 do . 917 Composite index of money and financial flows 25.68 3 3 3 3 3 5 .74 do do do Mfg and trade sales 1972 dollars Sales of retail stores 1972 dollars Labor cost per unit of output, mfg Manufacturers' inventories of finished goods Consumer installment debt Machinery and equipment sales and business construction expenditures . . . 2.24 ' 2.37 2.01 2.07 2.23 1.90 4.88 .51 do ... do . do 54 Sales of retail stores current dollars 56 Mfg and trade sales current dollars 78 91 96 105 106 . do do 48 Employee hours in nonagricultural establishments 51 Personal income less transfer payments 1972 dollars 52 Personal income 1972 dollars 57 59 62 65 66 69. . .79 0.17 2.42 1.58 1.46 1.32 1.94 do do do . .....do .60 1.57 1.28 8.97 11.97 II. OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES 322 Consumer prices food 1.05 1.59 .56 .39 .85 .39 .28 1.11 1.89 1.56 167.00 3.04 1.98 2.26 15.61 8.35 7.98 8.76 14.36 8.97 13.30 167.00 23.86 17.10 17.10 6.77 2.72 6.19 167.00 4.74 4.52 3.58 95 A. MOD and Related Measures of Variability—Continued Part I, Monthly Series: Average Percentage Changes—Continued T/c Monthly series Period covered Cl ' C T/C MCO for MCD span Average duration of run (ADR) Cl 1 C MCD II. OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES-Continued Jan.48-Dee.77 444 445. 446. 447 448. §16 Number unemployed males 20 years and over . Number unemployed, females 20 years and over Number unemployed, both sexes, 16*19 years of age Number unemployed full-time workers Number employed part-time for economic reasons Defense Department obligations incurred total 525 548 602. 604. 606. 612. Military prime contract awards in U S Manufacturers' new orders defense products Exports, excluding military aid shipments Exports of agricultural products Exports of nonelectrical machinery . . General imports, total Jan.51-Dec.77 Feb.68-Dec.77 Jan.48-Dac.77 Jan.65-Dec.77 614 616. 721, 722. 723. 725. Imports of petroleum and petroleum products Imports of automobiles and parts OECD European countries, industrial production United Kingdom, industrial production Canada, industrial production West Germany, industrial production Jan.65-Dec.77 726. 727. 728. 732. 733. 735. France, industrial production .. Italy industrial production . . . Japan industrial production . United Kingdom consumer prices (§) Canada, consumer prices (g) West Germany consumer prices (S) 736. 737. 738, 742. 743. 745. France, consumer prices (u) Italy, consumer prices © Japan, consumer prices © United Kingdom, stock prices <§) Canada, stock prices (u) West Germany, stock prices © 746. France, stock prices <§) 747. Italy stock prices ® 748. Japan, stock prices © do do Jan.63-Dec.77 May SB-Dec. 77 July 53-Dsc.?? 0.65 .82 .79 .66 .88 D 2,46 1.79 1.62 1.99 1.77 1.55 1.57 1.47 1.45 1.47 1.57 1.53 7.80 10.56 7.18 7.78 7.97 7.32 3.89 3.37 3.21 3.49 3,45 2.01 1.43 1.51 1.54 1.67 1.67 1.65 11.54 7.87 8.97 7.05 10.33 9.45 2.16 1.92 3.78 3.49 2.56 3.31 19.46 5.25 8.66 5.58 4.17 2.03 1.86 1.27 2.20 1.26 1.39 9.59 15.13 4.13 3.95 4.42 3.01 6 6 5 6 5 3 P) .90 .99 1.47 1.51 1.83 1.8? 1.70 1.86 10.62 10.74 .85 1.14 .91 1.51 10.00 9.84 .84 1.13 .72 1.40 2.59 2.49 .48 .42 .53 .81 3.86 3.95 1.76 2.69 1.34 1.74 3 4 2 4 2 2 .98 .91 .96 .74 .68 .90 1.76 1.70 4.11 3.18 2.38 2.97 1.46 1.65 1.78 1.66 1.61 1.58 7.75 11.92 23.91 9.97 12.38 IB. 89 2.39 2,70 7,49 6.36 4.21 5.04 1.67 1.93 1.72 .64 .40 .44 1.71 1.74 1.08 .36 .19 .32 .64 .76 1.24 .54 .35 .37 2.66 2.28 .87 .68 .55 .86 3 3 1 1 1 1 .95 .81 .87 .68 .55 .86 2.83 2.06 3.17 6.30 5.06 8.63 1.50 1.67 1.49 1.57 1.60 1.71 16.15 16.32 17.05 15.61 13.30 7. S3 5.53 5.25 3.17 6.30 5.06 8.63 Jan.50-Dec.77 .78 .61 1.15 3.66 2.95 3.51 .36 .34 .88 2.79 2.38 2.42 .66 .52 .70 2.08 1.61 2.33 .55 .65 1.26 1.34 1.48 1.04 1 1 2 2 3 2 .55 .65 .75 .87 .67 .64 6.77 8.16 2.58 2.60 2. 66 2.94 1.69 1.61 1.77 1.79 1.83 1.73 15.61 15.61 15.61 9.97 9.97 6.98 6,77 8.16 3.98 3.54 4.52 4.12 Jan.48-Dec.77 Jan.49-Dec.77 Jan.48-Dec.77 4,20 3.84 4.42 3.57 3.13 2.91 1.83 1.77 2.75 1.94 1.77 1.06 3 3 2 .76 .83 .67 2.18 2.44 2.85 1.79 1.89 1.64 7.64 8.46 7.18 4,01 4.42 4,07 Jan.56-Dec.77 Jan.48-Dec.77 do do Jan.51-Dec.77 Jan.48-Dec.77 Jan.48-Nov.77 Jan.48-Dec.77 do . June 48-Dec.77 .... do .. do. . . . .do do ... 2 3 4 2 3 6 28.20 Jan.48-Dec.77 ... .. 1.21 2.33 3.31 1.28 2.56 10.21 5,57 9.38 5.97 4.61 do. . ... 2.73 1.91 1.76 1.66 1.46 1.00 19.57 do „ 3.30 4.46 5.83 2.13 3.74 10.26 28.68 Jan.48-Dec.77 .. 4.67 4.93 6.24 2.84 4.14 10.45 (*) n .87 ©Measuresare based on unadjusted data. ' Not shown when MCD is 6. Brief Definitions of Measures Shown in Part I The following are brief definitions; more complete explanations appear in Electronic Computers and Business Indicators, by Julius Shiskin, issued as Occasional Paper 57 by the National Bureau of Economic Research, 1957 (reprinted from Journal of Business, October 1957). "T/C " is a measure of relative smoothness (small values) or irregularity (large values) of the seasonally adjusted series. It is shown for 1-month spans and for spans of the period of MCD. When MCD is "8", no T/C ratio is shown for the MCD period. "Cl" is the average month to month percentage change, without regard to sign, in the seasonally adjusted series (i.e., the series after adjustment for measurable seasonal, trading-day, and holiday variations). "Average Duration of Run" (ADR) is another measure of smoothness and is equal to the average number of consecutive monthly changes in the same direction in any series of observations. When there is no change between 2 months, a change in the same direction as the preceding change is assumed. The ADR is shown for the seasonally adjusted series Cl, irregular component I, cyclical component C, and the MCD curve. The MCO curve is an unweighted moving average (with the number of terms equal to MCD} of the seasonally adjusted series. "C" series. is the same for the cyclical component, a smooth, flexible moving average of the seasonally adjusted "I" is the same for the irregular component, obtained by dividing the cyclical component into the seasonally adjusted series. "MCO" (months for cyclical dominance) provides an estimate of the appropriate time span over which to observe cyclical movements in a monthly series. It is small for smooth series and targe for irregular series. In deriving MCD, percentage changes are computed separately for the irregular component and the cyclical component over 1°month spans (Jan.-Peb., Feb.-Mar., etc.), 2-month spans (Jan.-Mar., Feb.-Apr., etc.), up to 12-month spans. Averages, without regard to sign, are then computed for the changes over each span. MCD is the shortest span in months for which the average percentage change (without regard to sign) in the cyclical component is larger than the average percentage change (without regard to sign) in the irregular component, and remains so. Thus, it indicates the point at which fluctuations in the seasonally adjusted series become dominated by cyclical rather than irregular movements. All series with an MCD greater than "5" are shown as "6". 96 A comparison of these ADR measures with the expected ADR of a random series gives an indication of whether the changes approximate those of a random series. Over 1-month intervals, the expected ADR of a random series is 1.5, and the actual AOR falls between 1.36 and 1.75 about 95 percent of the time. Over 1-month intervals in a moving average (MCD} of a random series, the expected ADR is 2, For example, in a series with ADR measures of 1.56 for Cl, 1.45 for I, 8.71 for C, and 3.15 for MCD, the 1.58 for Cl Indicates that 1-month changes in the seasonally adjusted series reverse sign, on average, about as often as expected in a random series. The 1.45 for I and 8.71 for C suggest that the seasonally adjusted series has been separated into an essentially random component and a cyclical (nonrandom) component. The 3.15 for MCD indicates that the MCD moving average of the seasonally adjusted data reverses direction, on average, about every 3 months. Thus, for this series, month-to-mumh changes in the MCD moving average usually reflect underlying short-term trend movements while montlvt&>month changes in the seasonally adjusted series usually do not. A. MCD and Related Measures of Variability- -Continued Part II. Monthly Series; Average Actual Changes Average duration of run T/c Monthly series Unit of measure Period covered CI C ' T/c MCD for MCD span (ADR) CI 1 C MCD 1.67 1.61 1.47 8.55 7.64 8.55 4.25 4.82 7.02 1. CYCLICAL INDICATORS 2. 3 4. 21. Accession rate mfg Layoff rate mfg Quit rate, mfg . . . Average weekly overtime, production workers, mfg 25. Change in unfilled orders, durable 31. Change in book value, mfg. and trade inventories . . . Jan.48-Dec.77 Per 100 employees do. do do . . . do ... 32. Vendor performance, slower deliveries © . . . 33. Net change in mortgage debt 36. Net change in inventories on hand and on order 1972 dollars (smoothed) ... 38. Change in stocks of materials and supplies on hand and on order mfg .. 43. Unemployment rate total .. . 44 Unemployment rate 15 weeks and over 45. Average weekly insured unemployment rate . . 60. Ratio, help-wanted advertising to unemployment 77. Ratio, deflated inventories to sales, mfg. and trade 85 Change in money supply (Ml) 90. Ratio, civilian employment to total population 92. Change in sensitive prices (smoothed) 0.16 0.07 .16 .08 .14 .06 .07 .05 2.39 2.14 1.16 3 3 2 0.92 .83 .56 2.55 2.70 4.08 Hours Jan.56-Dec.77 .10 .09 .05 1.94 3 .68 3.65 1.57 10.96 5.67 Billion dollars Jan.48-Dec.77 .61 .57 .17 3.46 4 .99 1.70 1.57 8.35 3.30 Annual rate, billion dollars Feb.48-Dec.77 5.73 5.52 1.33 4.16 5 .89 1.58 1.52 6.28 2.64 Percent Annual rate, billion dollars Jan.48-Dec.77 Jan.55-Dec.77 3.87 2.17 2.99 1.90 2.28 1.31 2.45 2 3 .87 .90 2.94 1.75 1.79 1.42 8.35 10.58 4.02 3.37 do May 48-Dec.77 2.41 1.09 1.78 Billion dollars Percent do Ratio do Percent . 109. 112. 113. 114 115 116 Average prime rate charged by banks © . . . . Change in bank loans to businesses Change in consumer installment debt Treasury bill rate © . , Treasury bond yields © Corporate bond yields © ... Percent Annual rate, billion dollars 117. 118 1 19 940. Municipal bond yields © Mortgage yields secondary market © Federal funds rate °® Ratio, coincident index to lagging index Percent , . ... do do Ratio 5.55 3.78 1.45 1.56 1.51 7.84 7.48 7.04 3.43 4.16 7.46 .67 1 .67 4.82 1.75 7.89 4.82 .96 1 .96 2.76 1.59 10.56 2.76 1.83 9.95 3 6 .67 (l) 2.22 1.55 1.59 1.51 9.97 8.76 4.58 2.77 2.17 1.54 3 3 .77 .95 1.77 2.99 1.55 2.49 9.70 7.48 3.92 4.15 .09 .14 .04 .02 .02 .02 .27 .01 .26 .01 .03 .19 .32 .17 .24 .08 .16 .do 145.69 123.16 64.54 1.91 3 .69 1.89 1.57 8.16 3.37 .do 111.23 88.70 58.06 1.53 2 .93 2.09 1.65 8.76 2.93 .do. .06 .21 .05 .01 .03 .20 .04 .01 .05 .04 .03 .01 4.50 1.20 1.15 1 6 2 2 .71 t1) .98 .62 3.86 1.73 3.94 2.72 1.73 1.52 2.52 1.53 13.30 6.65 7.24 7.64 3.86 3.03 4.32 3.85 .07 1 6 3 2 3 3 .70 4.70 2.78 1.27 1.50 1.79 .81 .74 .76 15.61 1.73 1.75 2.68 2.92 2.16 2.46 1.54 1.58 1.97 1.88 1.71 7.80 6.65 8.97 9.70 7.80 9.45 15.61 3.28 3.28 3.98 4.96 3.72 3 1 1 1 .74 .67 .89 .94 2.44 6.80 2.80 3.09 1.79 1.86 1.58 1.65 8.35 7.89 9.03 8.35 4.41 6.80 2.80 3.09 do do . 2.28 1.59 2.85 4.99 .17 .do Million dollars . . 3.78 .82 .62 .56 Jan.49-Dec.77 do do do .61 Jan.48-Dec.77 do ... 1 4 2 2 .61 .40 .13 .05 do do .78 .42 .18 .07 Feb.53-Dec.77 Jan.48-Dec.77 93 Free reserves © 94. Member bank borrowing from Federal Reserve © 95. Ratio, consumer installment debt to personal income 102 Change in money supply (M2) . 104 Change in total liquid assets (smoothed) . . . 108. Ratio, personal income to money supply (M2) . .do May 48-Dec.77 Jan.48-Dec.77 .12 .11 .05 3.35 1.20 1.12 .71 do do do .do do do .do do do .19 .08 .14 .14 .06 .12 .10 .81 .51 .11 .04 .07 do .10 .07 .26 .98 .09 .04 .17 .62 .05 .05 .19 .66 1.68 Percent do do Index- 1967=100 . Jan.49-Dec.77 Aug.54-Dec.77 Jan.48-Dec.77 Percent Jan.48-Dec.77 do .... 0.18 .10 3.93 1.51 3.81 1.41 .70 .67 .89 .94 n .98 II. OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES 451. Participation rate, males 20 years and over . . . 452 Participation rate, females 20 years and over . . 453. Participation rate, both sexes, 16-19 years of age do do .18 .24 .17 .23 .05 .07 3.30 3.16 4 4 .97 .80 2.15 2.02 1.61 1.52 7.18 8.35 4.14 4.19 do do .75 .70 .21 3.39 4 .98 1.85 1.56 7.04 3.27 ©Measures are based on unadjusted data. 1 Not shown when MCD is 6. Brief Definitions of Measures Shown in Part II These measures are computed by an additive method. This method is used for series with zero or negative data and for other series where it seems appropriate, such as series expressed in percent. Thus, "CI" is the average month-to-month change in the seasonally adjusted series. This average is computed without regard to sign and is expressed in the same unit of measure as the series itself. "C" is the same for the cyclical component, which is a moving average of the seasonally adjusted series. "I" is the same for the irregular component, which is determined by subtracting the cyclical component from the seasonally adjusted series. All other measures have the same meaning as in part I. 97 A. QCD and Related Measures of Variability Part I. Quarterly Series: Average Percentage Changes Quarterly series Period covered Cl 1 C T/C QCD I/C for DCD span Average duration of run (ADR) Cl 1 C QCO 1. CYCLICAL INDICATORS 11. 16 18 34 35 49. New capital appropriations, mfg Corporate profits after taxes, current dollars Corporate prof its after taxes, 1972 dollars Net cash flow, corporate, current dollars Net cash flow, corporate, 1972 dollars Value of goods output, 1972 dollars , 50. 55. 61, 63. 68 79 6NP, 1972 dollars PCE, automobiles , Business expenditures, new plant and equipment Unit labor cost, private business sector Labor cost per unit of gross domestic product Corporate profits after taxes, with IVA and CCAdj, current dollars , , 80 Corporate profits after taxes, with IVA and CCAdj 1972 dollars 86 Nonresidential fixed investment total 1972 dollars IQ 53-IVQ 77 IQ 48-IVQ 77 do do do do 8.68 5.91 5.67 4.56 4.33 1.68 4.64 2.73 2.75 2.03 2.08 .74 6.55 4.51 4.27 3.53 3.27 1.36 0.71 .61 .64 ,58 .64 .55 1 1 1 1 1 1 0,71 .61 .64 .58 .64 .55 do do do do do do 1.22 7.21 3.05 1.11 1.15 7.54 .37 4.53 1.06 .40 .45 4.19 1.09 4.86 2,71 ,97 1.00 5.22 .33 ,93 .39 .42 .45 ,80 1 1 1 1 1 1 do . do do do do IQ 53-IVQ 77 IQ 52-IVQ 77 7,51 2.41 2.20 3.18 4,37 5.13 10.20 4.20 .89 1.10 1.43 1.39 .92 5.71 5.19 2.04 1.81 2.62 4.03 4.94 7,39 ,81 .44 .61 .54 .34 ,19 ,77 IQ 48-IVQ 77 do do do do do. .. . 1.92 1.03 1.04 1.99 1,80 1.13 .42 .38 .36 .43 .41 ,47 1,85 .97 .88 1.87 1.76 1.01 2.91 2.77 2.59 2.43 2.38 3.05 1.24 1.34 1.34 1.23 1,28 1,31 3.96 4,25 4.58 5.17 3,97 5.67 2.91 2,77 2.59 2.43 2,38 3,05 .33 .93 .39 ,42 .45 .80 5.67 2.70 4.10 3,50 3.72 2.59 1.34 1.24 1.27 1.29 1.29 1.32 9.15 3.84 5.95 7.00 7.00 3.97 5,67 2.70 4.10 3.50 3.72 2,59 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 .81 .44 .61 .54 .34 .19 .77 2.48 2.83 3,22 2.83 3,40 3.81 2.34 1.32 1.35 1.34 1.29 1.28 1.27 1.29 4.10 4.96 5.17 4.96 6.26 6.19 4.12 2.48 2.83 3.22 2.83 3.40 3,81 2.34 .23 .39 .41 .23 .23 .46 1 1 1 1 1 1 ,23 .39 .41 ,23 .23 .46 9.15 4.41 3.40 7.00 17.00 4.76 1.28 1.20 1,31 1.37 1,40 1.37 13.22 13,22 7.00 13.22 23,80 9.15 9.15 4.41 3.40 7.00 17.00 4,76 88, 89. 97. 110. Nonresidential fixed investment, producers' durable equipment, 1972 dollars Residential fixed investment, total, 1972 dollars Backlog of capital appropriations, mfg Total private borrowing 200. 213. 217. 220. 224. 225. GNP, current dollars Final sales, 1972 dollars Per capita GNP, 1972 dollars National income, current dollars Disposable personal income, current dollars Disposable personal income, 1972 dollars 227. 230. 231. 232, 233. 236. Per capita disposable personal income, 1972 dollars PCE, total, current dollars PCE, total, 1972 dollars PCE, durable goods, current dollars PCE, durable goods, 1972 dollars PCE, nondurable goods, current dollars do do do do do... . do .94 1.78 1.07 3.72 3.26 1.52 .46 .46 .42 2.08 1.97 .47 .77 1.68 .95 2.69 2.41 1.46 .60 .27 .44 .77 .82 ,32 1 1 1 1 1 1 .60 .27 .44 .77 .82 .32 3.84 9.15 S.67 3.05 2.90 9.15 1.43 1.31 1,25 1.24 1.24 1.25 7.00 23.80 10.82 4.76 4.41 23.80 3.84 9.15 5,67 3.05 2,90 9.15 237. 238. 239. 240. 241. 242. PCE, services, current dollars PCE, nondurable goods, 1972 dollars PCE, services, 1972 dollars Gross private domestic investment, current dollars Gross private domestic investment, 1972 dollars Fixed investment, total, current dollars do do do do do do 2.'02 ,93 1.02 5.58 4.84 2.72 .24 .46 .24 2.75 2.53 ,83 2.00 .75 .99 4.40 3.79 2.45 .12 ,61 .24 .63 .67 .34 1 1 1 1 1 1 .12 .61 .24 .63 .67 .34 119.00 3.84 13.22 2,64 2,59 4.10 1.25 1.28 1.34 1.37 1.29 1.28 119.00 7.93 23.80 5.17 5.41 5.17 119.00 3,84 13.22 2.64 2,59 4,10 243. 252. 253. 256. 257. 260, Fixed investment, total, 1972 dollars Exports of goods and services, current dollars Imports of goods and services, current dollars Exports of goods and services, 1972 dollars Imports of goods and services, 1972 dollars Government purchases of goods and services, current dollars do do do do... do . . do... 2.38 4.41 4.23 3.61 3.37 2.71 .76 2.31 2.10 2.25 2.03 .75 2.12 3.35 3.34 2.48 2.38 2.59 .36 .69 .63 .91 .85 .29 1 1 1 1 1 1 .36 .69 .63 .91 .85 .29 4.10 2.64 2.90 2.16 2.43 7.00 1.34 1.28 1.31 1,23 1,29 1.23 5.95 4.76 5.41 4.10 5.17 17.00 4.10 2.64 2.90 2.16 2,43 7.00 261. 262, 263. 266. 267. 280. Government purchases of goods and services, 1972 dollars Federal Government purchases of goods and services, current dollars . . . . Federal Government purchases of goods and services, 1972 dollars State and local government purchases of goods and services, current dollars . State and local government purchases of goods and services, 1972 dollars . . Compensation of employees do do do do do do 1.70 3.43 2.76 2.52 1.37 1.98 .63 1.29 1.06 .47 .46 .28 1.48 3.13 2.34 2,46 1.24 1.96 .42 .41 .45 .19 .37 .14 1 1 1 1 1 1 .42 .41 .45 .19 .37 .14 2.90 3.61 3.05 17.00 5.67 13.22 1.25 1.23 1.25 1.23 1.34 1.32 5,67 5.17 5.17 39.67 13,22 13,22 2.90 3.61 3.05 17.00 5,67 13.22 282. 284. 286. 288. 290. 292. Proprietors' income, with IVA and CCAdj Rental income of persons, with CCAdj Corporate profits, with IVA and CCAdj Net interest Gross saving Personal saving do do do do do do 2.24 2.12 5.29 3.52 5.56 15,02 1.18 .92 2.63 1.02 2.83 10.98 1.69 1.61 4.07 3.47 4,19 8.31 .69 .57 .65 .29 .67 1.32 1 1 1 1 1 2 .69 .57 .65 .29 .67 .48 2.90 6.26 2.70 29.75 2.48 1.95 1.34 1.37 1.32 1.29 1.35 1.25 4.76 13.22 4.58 29.75 4.96 3,61 2.90 6.26 2.70 29.7$ 2.48 2.88 II. OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES . . . A. QCD and Related Measures of Variability—Continued Part I. Quarterly Series: Average Percentage Changes—Continued Quarterly series Period covered Cl ' C I/C QCD I/C for QCD span Average duration of run (ADR) Cl 1 C QCD 5,17 2.59 tl. OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES-Continued 3.27 346. Real average hourly compensation nonfarm business sector 358 Output per hour nonfarm business sector 370 Output per hour private business sector IQ 48-IVQ 77 do do do do do do 501. 502. 511. 512. 564 618 Federal Government receipts Federal Government expenditures State and local government receipts . State and local government expenditures . Federal Government purchases of goods and services for national defense Merchandise exports excluding military grants do do do do do IQ 60-IVQ 77 3.18 3.34 2.51 2.43 3.39 5.08 1.10 3.08 2.75 2.85 2.45 2.38 3.13 3.18 620 651. 652 668 669 Merchandise imports excluding military Income on U.S investments abroad Income on foreign investments in the U S . Exports of goods and services excluding military grants Imports of goods and services total . . do do do do do 5.34 7.10 5.48 4.17 4.27 2.55 4.98 2.50 2.18 1.92 4.21 4.47 4.89 3.01 3.60 295. Business saving . . . . 310. Implicit price deflator, GNP 311. Fixed weighted price index gross business product CCAdj IVA PCE . . . . . . . .93 .89 1.43 .74 .87 .95 1.79 .19 .19 .22 .30 .43 .48 1.33 1.24 .68 .45 2.43 .89 .85 1.42 .66 .71 .82 .21 .22 .16 .45 .61 .59 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 .48 .44 .28 .19 .35 .97 1 1 1 1 1 1 .48 .44 .28 .19 .35 .97 13.22 17.00 3.40 1.97 1.42 1.40 1.25 1.34 1.28 1.27 .61 1 2 1 1 1 .61 .42 .51 .72 .53 3.55 1.77 3.23 2.96 3.74 1.29 1.25 1,18 1,31 1.29 0.73 1.12 .51 .72 .53 0.73 .21 .22 .16 .45 .61 .59 2.59 10.82 10.82 119.00 4.96 2.64 3.05 4.58 3.84 1.29 1.28 1.37 1.31 1.32 1.24 1.21 23.80 10.82 17.00 10.82 119.00 119.00 13.22 4.96 7,00 7.00 2.64 3.05 6.61 9.15 4.58 3.84 119.00 39.67 13.22 17.00 4.41 3.94 3.40 1.97 6,45 3.94 7,10 5.92 3.55 3.50 3.23 2.96 3.74 11.83 Capital consumption adjustment. Inventory valuation adjustment. Personal consumption expenditures. Brief Definitions of Measures Shown in Part I The following are brief definitions; more complete explanations appear in Electronic Computers and Business Indicators, by Julius Shiskin, issued as Occasional Paper 57 by the National Bureau of Economic Research, 1957 (reprinted iwm Journal of Business, October 1957). "I/C" is a measure of relative smoothness (small values) or irregularity (large values) of the seasonally adjusted series. It is shown for 1-quarter spans and for spans of the period of QCQ. When QCD is "4," noT/C ratio is shown for the QCD period. "Cl" is the average quarter-to-puarter percentage change, without regard to sign, in the seasonally adjusted series or, if the series contains no measurable seasonal, in the unadjusted series. "Average Duration of Run" (ADR} is another measure of smoothness and is equal to the average number of consecutive quarterly changes in the same direction in any series of observations. When there is no change between 2 quarters, a change in the same direction as the preceding change is assumed. The ADR is shown for the seasonally adjusted series Cl, irregular component I, cyclical component C, and the QCQ curve. The QCD curve is an unweighted moving average (with the number of terms equal to QCD) of the seasonally adjusted series. "C " is the same for the cyclical component, a smooth, flexible moving average of the seasonally adjusted series. "I" is the same for the irregular component, obtained by dividing the cyclical component into the seasonally adjusted series. "QCD" (quarters for cyclical dominance) provides an estimate of the appropriate time span over which to observe cyclical movements in a quarterly series. It is small for smooth series and large for irregular series. In deriving QCD, percentage changes are computed separately for the irregular component and the cyclical component over 1-quarter spans (1st quartered quarter, 2d quartered quarter, etc.), 2-quarter spans (1st quartered quarter, 2d quarter-4th quarter, etc.), up to 4-quarter spans. Averages, without regard to sign, are then computed for the changes over each span. QCD is the shortest span in quarters for which the average percentage change (without regard to sign) in the cyclical component is larger than the average percentage change (without regard to sign} in the irregular component, and remains so. Thus, it indicates the point at which fluctuations in the seasonally adjusted series become dominated by cyclical rather than irregular movements. All series with a QCD greater than "3" are shown as "4." 9 A comparison of these measures of ADR with the expected ADR of a random series gives an indication of whether the changes approximate those of a random series. Over 1-quarter intervals in a random series, the expected value of the ADR is 1.5. The actual value of ADR falls between 1.36 and 1.75 about 95 percent of the time. Over 1-quarter intervals in a moving average (QCD) of a random series, the expected value of ADR is 2.0. For example, in a series with ADR measures of 1.63 for Cl, 1.39 for I, 3.51 for C, and 3.27 for QCD, the 1.63 for Cl indicates that 1-quarter changes in the seasonally adjusted series reverse sign, on average, about as often as expected in a random series. The 1.39 for I and 3.51 for C suggest that the seasonally adjusted series has been separated into an essentially random component and a cyclical (nonrandom) component. The 3.27 for QCD indicates that the QCD moving average of the seasonally adjusted series reverses direction, on average, about every 3 quarters. Thus, for this series, quarter-to-quarter changes in the QCD moving average usually reflect underlying short-term trend movements of the series, while quarter-to-quarter changes in the seasonally adjusted series usually do not. 99 A. QCD and Related Measures of Variability—Continued Part II. Quarterly Series: Average Actual Changes Quarterly series Unit of measure Period covered T Cl 7/c C QCD I/C for QCD span Average duration of run (ADR) Cl 1 C QCD 1. CYCLICAL INDICATORS 1 5. Profits (after taxes) per dollar of sales mfg .... 22. Ratio, profits (after taxes) to corporate domestic income . . . 30. Change in business inventories, 1972 dollars . . 58 Index of consumer sentiment (§). 64. Compensation of employees as percent of national income . , Cents IQ 48-IVQ 77 Percent Annual rate, billion dollars Index: 101966=100 .. ..do do IQ 62-IVQ 77 ,54 4.41 3.49 .28 3.18 2.26 Percent IQ 48-IVQ 77 IQ 48-IVQ 76 .41 .25 Ratio IQ 48-IVQ 77 do IQ 66-IVQ 77 IQ 48-IVQ 77 do Percent IQ 48-IVQ 77 do 81. Ratio, profits (after taxes) with IVA and CCAdj -to corporate domestic income 82 Rate of capacity utilization, mfg. (FRB) . . . . 83 Rate of capacity utilization mfg (BEA) 84 Rate of capacity utilization materials 107 Ratio GNP to money supply Ml do do do do 0.27 0.79 1 0.79 2,70 1.38 3.31 2,70 .39 2.67 2.31 .72 1.19 .98 1 2 1 .72 .48 .98 2,77 1.70 1.80 1.31 1,32 1.19 3.84 3.31 4,20 2,77 2.68 1.80 .24 .10 .30 .22 .80 .48 1 1 .80 .48 2.70 2.40 1,29 1.40 5.17 3.83 2,70 2,40 .59 1.66 1.08 2.32 .04 .35 .64 .68 1.06 ,02 .42 1.39 .89 1.84 .04 .84 .46 .77 .58 .44 .84 .46 .77 ,58 .44 2.29 3.40 3.00 2.97 3.61 1.27 1.37 1.33 1.3? 1.34 4.41 5.17 3.00 4.41 7.00 2.29 3.40 3.00 2.97 3.61 .47 .32 .32 .98 1 .98 2.20 1.21 3.50 2,20 do 4.16 3.11 2.51 1.24 2 .48 1.70 1.29 3.72 2.81 0.15 0.19 II. OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES 235 PCE as percent of GNP 245. Change in business inventories, current dollars . ..... 247. Change in business inventories as percent of GNP 248. Nonresidentiat fixed investment as percent of GNP 249. Residential fixed investment as percent of GNP 250. Net exports of goods and services, current dollars .... 251. Net exports as percent of GNP 255. Net exports of goods and services, 1972 dollars 265. Federal Government purchases of goods and services as percent of GNP 288. State and local government purchases of goods and services as percent of GNP 283. Proprietors' income, with IVA and CCAdj, as percent of national income . Annual rate, billion dollars do .62 .45 .38 1.17 Z .47 1.92 1.29 3,13 2.81 do do .17 .10 .14 .74 1 .74 2.97 1.29 4.58 2.97 do .08 .17 .47 1 .47 3.40 1.23 5.17 3,40 Percent do .19 Annual rate, billion dollars do 1.61 .95 1.29 .73 1 .73 2.33 1.23 4.76 2.33 Percent do .22 .12 .18 .70 1 .70 2.77 1.20 4.41 2.77 Annual rate, billion dollars do 1.49 .86 1.12 .77 1 .77 2.33 1.31 5.67 2.33 Percent do .31 .14 .27 .52 1 .52 3.22 1.28 4.76 3.22 do do .13 .06 .11 .53 1 .53 3.84 1.34 5.17 3,84 do . ... do .23 .14 .17 .83 1 .83 2.90 1.34 4.41 2.90 285. Rental income of persons, with CCAdj, as percent of national income . . . do ... 287. Corporate profits, with IVA and CCAdj, as percent of national income do 289. Net interest as percent of national income . . . do 293. Personal saving rate do 298. Government surplus or deficit, total Annual rate, billion dollars 348. Wage and benefit decisions, first year (u) . . , . Annual rate, percent .... 349. Wage and benefit decisions, life of contract (§) 500. Federal Government surplus or deficit 510. State and local government surplus or deficit 622. Merchandise trade balance . . . . 667. Balance on goods and services . .05 .04 .05 .84 1 .84 5.95 1.37 3.72 5,95 do do do do IQ 68-IVQ 77 do . .48 .07 .73 4.53 1.79 .26 .04 .55 2.36 1.13 .34 .06 .44 3.64 1.12 .76 .66 1.23 .65 1.01 1 1 2 1 2 .76 .66 .48 ,65 .43 2.59 4.76 1.95 3.22 1.56 1.27 1.29 1.23 1.27 1.26 4.41 4.58 3.40 4.41 2.79 2.59 4.76 2.74 3.22 2.71 do . . Annual rate, billion dollars do IQ 48-IVQ 77 1.08 4.66 .84 2.73 .57 3.39 1.47 .80 2 1 .69 .80 1.70 2.53 1.22 1.29 2.60 4.10 2.24 2,53 do Million dollars .... do do IQ 60-IVQ 77 do ,75 1.13 520.48 301.69 534,66 326.92 .77 439.72 419.32 .97 .69 .78 1 1 1 .97 ,69 .78 2.25 2.22 1.87 1.25 1.37 1.31 3.97 3.94 4.44 2.25 2.22 1.87 <§> Measures are based on unadjusted data. CCAdj Capital consumption adjustment. IVA Inventory valuation adjustment. PCE Personal consumption expenditures. Brief Definitions of Measures Shown in Part II These measures are computed by an additive method. This method is used for series with zero or negative data and for other series where it seems appropriate, such as series expressed in percent. — Thus, Cl is the average quarter-to-quarter change in the seasonally adjusted series. This average is computed without regard to sign and is expressed in the same unit of measure as the series itself. "C" is the same for the cyclical component, which is a moving average of the seasonally adjusted series, "T" is the same for the irregular component, which is determined by subtracting the cyclical component from the seasonally adjusted series, All other measures have the same meaning as in part I. 100 B. Current Adjustment Factors 19 78 19 77 July 5. Average weekly initial claims, State unemployment insurance 13. New business incorporations 1 Aug. Sept. Oct. 103.7 79.2 73.2 84.2 100.6 99.1 95.5 94.3 15. Profits (after taxes) per dollar of sales, manufacturing2 100.7 Nov. Dec. Jan. Feb. 100.3 139.1 154.0 112.4 95.8 101.2 89.8 90.2 98 4 Apr. May 95.4 87 0 80 1 85 3 114.7 100.5 109 5 108 2 Mar. 93 9 June 107 5 33. Net change in mortgage debt held by financial institutions and life insurance companies1 3 . 781 766 -2 -497 -354 318 -1409 -1291 -166 140 760 1245 72. Commercial and industrial loans outstanding. . 100.0 99.3 99.4 99.9 100.6 101,6 100.6 99.0 99.8 100.2 99,9 99.8 516. Defense Department obligations total. . . . 91 5 83 5 121 0 132 6 107 9 98 5 103 4 89 5 89 6 104 6 82 6 94 4 525. Military prime contract awards in U.S 79 9 81 1 173 2 128 8 in 6 95 7 100 0 84 0 89 2 94 4 81 3 77 2 1 604 Exports of agricultural products 88 5 85 6 84 0 103 1 118 6 110 1 106 9 inn ^ infi fi in } ^ QR 4 Qn Q 606 Exports of nonelectrical machinery 95 8 95 5 91 8 104 3 98 6 101 8 95 9 94 3 109 9 105 2 infi 1 in? Q 614. Imports of petroleum and products 103 7 107 2 93 4 95 4 91 6 102 1 106 1 90 4 106 6 106 4 95 8 QQ R 93 9 84 2 83 6 97 3 101 1 103 8 101 8 94 8 117 3 inft l in? i ino "3 616 Imports of automobiles and parts 969. Profits, manufacturing (Citibank)** -8 _2 -8 18 NOTE: These series are seasonally adjusted by the Bureau of Economic Analysis or the National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc., rather than by the source agency. Seasonal adjustments are kept current by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Seasonally adjusted data prepared by the source agency will be used in Business Conditions Digest whenever they are available. For a description of the method used to compute these factors, see Bureau of the Census Technical Paper No. 15, The X-11 Variant of the Census Method II Seasonal Adjustment Program. 1 Factors are the products of seasonal and trading-day factors, Quarterly series; factors are placed in the middle month of the quarter. 3 These quantities, in millions of dollars, are subtracted from the month-to-month net change in the unadjusted monthly totals to yield the seasonally adjusted net change. These factors are computed by the additive version of the X-11 variant of the Census Method II seasonal adjustment program. "1-quarter diffusion index; factors are placed in the first month of the quarter. The unadjusted diffusion index is computed and these factors, computed by the additive version of the X-11 variant of the Census Method II seasonal adjustment program, are subtracted to yield the seasonally adjusted index. 2 101 C. Historical Data for Selected Series Quarterly Monthly Annual Year Jan, Feb. Mar. Apr. May June July Aug. Sept. Nov. Oct. Dec. IQ 60. RATIO, HELP-WANTED ADVERTISING IN NEWSPAPERS TO NUMBER OP PERSONS UNEMPLOYED ' (RATIO) tlQ Ml Q IV Q AVERAGE FOR PP.RIQD 1948... 1949... 1950... 1951... 1932,., 1953... 1954.., 1933... 1936... 1957... O.SS2 0.339 0,251 0.801 1.027 1.165 0.435 0.443 0.739 0.733 0,806 0,418 0.257 0.886 1.020 1.32? 0,384 0.491 0.800 0.749 0,732 0.393 0.269 0.924 1,067 1.392 0.338 0.331 0.744 0,771 0.737 0,347 0.308 0.992 1.086 1.295 0.326 0.518 0.787 0.710 0.830 0.305 0.329 1.059 1.038 1.362 0,316 0.607 0.718 0.670 0.793 0.276 0.354 0,940 1.027 1,296 0.344 0.639 0.702 0.605 0.781 0.246 0.410 0,977 0.987 1.201 0.325 0.679 0.655 0.639 0,748 0.234 0.521 0.986 0.956 1.145 0.309 0.674 0.739 0.618 0.802 0.235 0.536 0,908 1.092 0.997 0.303 0.?44 0.746 0.566 0.751 0,188 0.612 0.882 1.197 0.845 0.325 0,683 0.810 0.513 0.690 0,224 0.609 0.888 1.265 0.686 0.376 0.728 0.718 0.405 0.588 0.212 0,576 0.988 1.321 0.486 0.410 0.766 0.715 0.38S 0.830 0.450 0.259 0.870 1.038 1.298 0.386 0,488 0,768 0.752 0.787 0,309 0.330 0.997 1.050 1.318 0.329 Q.S88 0.736 0.662 0.777 0.238 0.489 0.957 1.012 1.114 0.312 0.699 0.713 0.608 0,676 0.208 0.599 0,911 1,261 0.672 0.370 0.726 0.748 0.434 0.768 0.301 0.419 0.936 1.090 1,100 0.349 0,625 0.741 0.614 1938... 1959... I960.,. 1961... 1962,.. 1963... 1964... 1968... 1966... 1967... 1968... 0,330 0.366 0,519 0.300 0.445 0.424 0.438 0.608 0.996 1.033 1.065 0.277 0,390 0.564 0.283 0.462 0.407 0,462 0.607 1.077 1.042 1.012 0,252 0,431 0,479 0.288 0.456 0,431 0.467 0.653 1.113 1.021 1.077 0.220 0.492 0.485 0.286 0.457 0.426 0.494 0.646 1.095 1.029 1.165 0.219 0.505 0,484 0.291 0.478 0.402 0.514 0.703 1.060 1.006 1.152 0.229 0,538 0.4S1 0,305 0.465 0.427 0.523 0,721 1.098 0.98S 1.074 0.234 O.S40 0.427 0.308 0.468 0.434 0.569 0.739 1.097 0.981 1.126 0.243 0.515 Q.408 0,337 0.438 0.445 0.554 0.778 1,078 1.011 1.194 0.272 0.497 0.398 0,344 0.436 0.436 0.553 0.815 1.096 0.996 1.253 0,293 0.468 0.350 0.371 0.446 0.448 0.551 0.862 1.096 0.956 1.318 0,334 0.454 0.337 0.409 0,422 0.423 0.604 0.940 1.108 0.971 1.30S 0,355 0.505 0.303 0.413 0.434 0.464 0.587 0.972 1.043 0.996 1.2§7 0.286 0.396 0.321 0.290 0.434 0,421 0.462 0.623 1.062 1.032 1.051 0.223 0,512 0.473 0.294 0.467 0.418 0.510 0.690 1.084 1.007 1.130 0.250 0.517 0.411 0.330 0.447 0.438 0.859 0.777 1.090 0.996 1.131 0.327 0.47S 0.330 0.398 0.434 0.445 0.381 0.92S 1.082 0.974 1.307 0.272 0.47S 0.434 0.320 0.451 0.431 0.528 0.754 1.Q80 1.002 1.170 1969,,. 1970... 1971... 1972... 1973... 1974,,, 1973,,, 1976,., 1977... 1978... 1.336 1.019 0.467 0.546 0.879 0.76S 0.311 0,352 1.330 0.941 0.488 0.568 0.851 0.740 0.304 0,384 1.350 0.837 0.480 0.568 0.872 0.764 0.200 0.394 1.339 0.784 0.483 0,583 0.846 0.787 0.273 0.378 1.361 0.715 0.486 0.598 0,872 0.757 0.261 0.397 1.268 0.682 0.509 0.604 0.884 0.737 0.300 0.402 1.236 0.634 0.493 0.617 0.906 0.706 0.312 0.396 1.220 0.616 0.487 0,636 0.885 0.688 0.316 0,390 1.214 0.582 0.491 0,653 0.867 0.593 0,314 0.383 1.191 0.520 0.500 0,671 0.928 0.541 0.316 0.389 1.241 0.494 0.498 0.738 0.868 0.448 0.337 0.394 1.187 0.477 0.507 0.818 0.814 0.385 0.341 0.417 1.345 0,932 0.478 0.561 0.867 0.756 0.298 0.37? 1,323 0.727 0.493 0.59S 0.867 0.760 0.278 0.392 0.611 0.490 0.63S 0.886 0.662 0.314 0.390 1.223 1.206 0.497 0.502 0.742 Q.870 0.458 0.331 0.400 1.274 0.692 0.491 0.633 0.873 0.639 0.303 0.390 12. COMMERCIAL AND INDUSTRIAL LOANS OUTSTANDING, WEEKLY REPORTING LARGE COMMERCIAL BANKS a ( M I L L I O N S OF DOLLARS) AVERAGE FOR PERIOD 1947,. , 1948... 1949... 1950... 1931... 1952... 1953... 1954... 1953,.. 1956... 1957.,, 10,473 13,417 14, OSS 12,677 16,803 19,632 21,227 21,000 20,821 24,515 28,695 10,713 13,388 13,979 12,764 17,116 19,641 21,277 21,064 20,692 24,686 28,720 11,149 ^11,506 13,371 13,473 13,605 13,861 12,849 12,763 18,079 17,579 19,742 19,761 21,430 21,675 21,036 20,967 21,049 20,916 25,414 25,932 29,182 29,503 11,592 13,834 13,409 12,936 18,453 19,809 21,816 20,811 21,416 26,448 29,630 11,639 14,065 13,163 13,242 18,646 19,969 21,747 20,6SO 21,796 26,79<J 30,033 11,770 14,385 12,833 13,619 18,757 20,141 21,778 20,651 22,244 27,145 30,245 12,019 14,507 12,660 14,057 18,865 20,190 21,934 19,804 22,664 27,418 30,285 12,250 14,461 12,641 14,696 18,968 20,381 21,819 19,753 22,977 27,778 30,374 12,548 14,356 12,670 15,027 19,111 20,650 21,640 19,718 23,421 27,858 29,969 12,904 14,196 12,604 15,462 19,194 21,031 21,451 19,955 23,771 28,199 29,573 13,158 14,087 12,573 15,986 19,411 21,133 21,058 20,314 24,110 28,398 29,517 10,779 13,382 13,963 12,738 17,066 19,678 21,311 21,033 20,712 24,872 28,866 11,579 13,791 13,392 13,009 18,393 19,840 21,746 20,809 21,420 26,393 29,729 12,013 14,451 12,711 14,124 18,863 20,237 21,844 20,069 22,628 27,447 30,301 12,870 14,213 12,616 13,492 19,239 20,938 21,383 19,996 23,767 28,131 29,686 11,810 13,959 13,171 13,840 18,390 20,173 21,571 20,477 22,132 26,716 29,64S 1938.,, 1939... I960.., 1961, ., 1962... 1963... 1964. ,, 1963. .. 1966... 1967. ,, 1968.,, 29,171 28,567 31,433 32,999 33,582 36,030 38,931 43,362 53,062 60,701 65,333 28,833 28,583 31,870 32,966 33,712 36,126 39,195 44,618 53,908 61,023 65,595 28,728 28,820 32,093 33,111 33,907 36,251 39,201 45,363 34,585 61,592 63,843 28,554 29,092 32,293 33,079 34,121 36,458 39,554 46,203 55,022 61,996 67,010 28,168 29,573 32,591 33,020 34,269 36,626 39,882 47,209 55,87? 62,132 67,184 28,079 30,042 33,011 32,955 34,509 36,740 40,137 47,718 56,955 62,494 67,664 28,039 30,026 32,993 33,012 34,740 36,872 40,428 48,072 57,838 62,824 68,015 27,941 30,456 32,840 33,131 35,038 37,047 40,839 49,139 58,857 62,875 68,681 28,122 30,646 32,956 33,214 35,318 37,341 41,418 50,141 59,328 63,203 69,339 28,215 30,915 32,996 33,215 35,635 37,821 41,625 50,812 59,822 63,587 70,163 28,342 31,076 33,118 33,280 35,939 38,579 42,068 51,650 60,282 64,065 71,105 28,496 28,911 31,288 28,657 33,018 . 31,799 33,429 33,02S 35,986 33,734 39,045 36,139 42,737 39,109 52,300 44,581 60,532 33,852 64,830 61,105 72,210 65,590 28,267 29,569 32,632 33,018 34,300 36,608 39,858 47,043 55,951 62,207 67,286 28,034 30,376 32,930 33,119 35,032 37,087 40,898 49,11? 38,674 62,967 68,678 28,351 31,093 33,044 33,308 33,883 38,482 42,143 51,587 60,212 64,161 71,159 28,391 29,924 32,601 33,118 34,730 37,079 40,901 48,082 57,172 62,610 68,178 73,450 74,190 83,205 84,229 83,235 83,709 84,509 85,052 93,885 98,131 114,538 ]L 1 4 , 6 4 5 132,143 ]1 3 0 , 4 6 5 120,242 ] 20,375 74,886 34,462 83,851 85,444 ] 01,548 ]117,146 ]L 2 9 , 0 3 1 ] 17,701 76,283 84,770 83,163 86,303 103,726 121,497 127,819 114,659 77,457 85,241 83,716 96,696 L04,919 .123,199 126,379 115,028 78,541 85,420 83,701 86,127 L06,008 „1 2 4 , 4 4 2 124,899 115,531 79,055 85,599 83,101 86,218 107,920 128,154 123,975 114,682 79,884 86,220 84,437 86,801 110,370 129,335 L22,792 L14,20S 80,889 86,230 86,139 87,803 110,872 130,988 122,320 114,802 82,073 34,649 85,677 89,350 111,133 131,660 122,015 115,610 82,627 83,982 85,598 90,748 111,492 132,378 121,497 116,517 77,427 8S,144 83,527 86,375 104,884 123,046 126,366 115,073 79,943 86,016 84,559 86,941 109,721 129,492 123,029 114,563 82,688 84,066 83,497 90,669 111,845 132,155 121,573 116,311 78,358 84,798 84,295 87,247 106,076 125,036 123,379 116,363 1969... 1970... 1971... 1972,,, 1973... 1974,,. 1975... 1976,., 1977... 1978.., 90. RATIO 83,365 83,566 85,216 91,910 112,909 132,426 121,208 116,806 74,173 83,965 83,598 85,002 97,853 118, 4S9 130,546 119,506 CIVILIAN EMPLOYMENT TO TOTAL POPULATION OF WORKING A G E , LABOR FORCE SURVEY 3 (PERCENT) 1947.. . 1948... 1949... 1950... 1951.,, 1952. .. 1933... 1954... 1958... 1956... 1957... 53.91 55,41 54.36 55.69 §5.89 56.15 53.97 54,12 36.27 SS.60 56.00 55,40 54.43 55.68 1958... 1959... 1960... 1961... 1962... 1963... 1964... 1965... 1966... 1967. ,. 1968... 1969... 1970... 1971... 1972... 1973... 1974... 1975... 1976... 1977... 1978... AVERAGE FOR PERIOD 56.26 54,51 S4.07 56.02 36.10 55.45 55.20 84.36 56.31 55.29 56.22 54.03 54.22 55.88 36.18 56.01 54.88 55.12 55,80 55.26 55.68 54.00 S4.67 56.03 55.81 55,54 54.65 55.16 56.03 55.47 55.25 53.71 54.73 56.18 55.71 56,35 54.24 55.49 55.46 5S.44 55.60 53.57 54.83 56.11 55.83 56.42 54.21 55.40 55.91 55.16 55.50 53.41 55.44 56.04 56.05 55.90 §4.36 56.08 58.71 54.95 85.23 53.55 55.65 56.15 S5.49 55.91 54.49 55.82 55.39 55.57 54,95 S3. 89 55.73 56.18 55,58 55.74 54.14 55.98 55.62 55.16 54.89 53.82 55.72 56.04 55.45 S5.72 S4.80 55.83 55.40 55.68 54.71 S3. 85 55.91 55,83 55.07 55.99 54.60 55.54 S5.97 55.82 53.98 53.59 56.24 55.89 55.25 8S.79 55.34 54.38 55.89 53.68 56.21 54.17 34.14 36.06 SS.96 S5.97 54.59 55.26 55.76 55.39 55.51 53.76 S4.74 56.11 SS.78 56,08 54.35 35.77 55.67 35,23 55,23 33.62 55.61 56.12 55.71 85 82 84 '.51 33.78 55.66 55.55 §4.53 53.75 55.96 85.92 55.26 55.91 54.70 53.30 5S.7S 55.46 55.37 53,82 55.11 56.05 55.68 54.60 54,51 84.86 54.50 34.12 54,01 34.11 54. S3 55.42 3S.69 35.51 54,28 54.29 55.04 84.30 54.43 53.90 54.37 54.57 55.30 55,57 55.83 54.09 54.73 84.19 54.47 54.34 54.07 54,31 54.74 55.27 55.37 55.88 53.96 55.09 85.23 84.02 54.14 54.23 54.71 54.82 55.46 55.64 55.95 54.12 54.97 55.26 54.02 54.33 54.14 54.85 55.07 55.37 55.53 56.27 53.95 55.04 55.29 54.42 54.29 54.08 54.45 54.98 55.52 55.78 56.25 53,92 55.11 55.22 S4.04 54.06 54.21 54.51 55.28 55.52 55.88 56.10 54.10 54.91 54.95 54.18 54.37 54.15 54.49 SS.13 85.66 55.94 55.98 54.18 54.80 55.20 53.87 54.46 54.29 54.50 54.99 55.67 55.92 55.99 54.36 54.86 S4.62 54.13 54.30 54.31 54.43 55.23 55.70 55.99 55.96 14,29 54.43 54.93 54.20 54,00 54.21 54.47 55.19 S5.96 SS.97 56.07 54.29 §5.11 54. S7 54.00 53.99 54,10 54.46 55.38 55.80 S6.1S 56.20 34.32 54, SI 54.70 54.42 54.30 53,99 54,26 54.61 55.33 SS.S4 55.14 54.01 55.03 55.26 54.15 54.25 54.15 54.67 54.96 55.45 55.65 56.16 54.07 54.94 35.12 54.03 54.30 54.22 §4.50 85.13 55.62 55.91 56. 02 54.31 54.82 54.71 54.11 54,10 54.21 54.45 55,27 55.82 56.04 S6.08 S4.18 54.82 34. 9S 54.18 54.24 54.14 54.47 54.99 55.55 55.79 56.00 56,14 56,70 55,63 55,72 56.16 57.34 55,60 53.70 56.47 56. SO 55.39 55,69 56.57 57.38 55.27 55.80 56.41 56.50 55.22 55.98 56.85 57.34 55.13 85,90 56.45 56.48 55.43 55.93 36.81 57.12 55.06 56.08 56.28 56.15 55.45 56.02 56.78 57.16 55,13 86.21 56,54 56.00 55.16 56.07 57.07 57.15 55.05 56.07 56.52 56.11 55.44 56.05 57.06 57.18 55.22 56.23 56.65 55.95 55.50 56.19 56.88 56.98 55.30 56.15 56.57 55.77 S5.48 56.10 56.99 56.92 55.25 56.05 56.62 55.80 55,86 56,04 57.22 S6.79 55.23 56.03 56.61 85.66 55.70 56.19 57.36 56.46 55.21 56.21 §6.68 55.54 55.74 56.39 57.32 56.07 55.26 56.27 56.34 86.57 53.41 35.80 56.33 57.35 55.34 35.30 56.42 56.21 55, 3S 56.01 86.89 57.14 55.08 56,12 56.58 38.94 55.47 56.11 56.98 57.03 35.26 56.14 56.64 58.67 53,67 36.21 87.30 56.44 53,23 56.17 56.49 56,10 SS.47 56.03 56.92 56.99 55.23 56.06 55. as This scries contains revisions beginning with I960. with 1973, 102 This series contains revisions beginning with 1974. 3 TMs series contains revisions beginning (APRIL 1978) C. Historical Data for Selected Series—Continued Monthly Quarterly Year Jan. Feb. Apr. Mar. 112. 1947... 1948... 1949... 1950... 1951... 1952... 1953... 1954... 1955... 1956... 1957... 2.58 3.11 -0.38 1.25 6.20 2.65 1.13 -0.70 2.58 4.86 3,60 2.86 -0.71 -0.91 1.04 7.36 0.11 0.60 0.77 1.96 2.05 0.30 1958... 1959... 1960... 1961... 1962... 1963... 1964... 1965... 1966... 1967... 1968... -4.15 0.85 0.64 -0,23 1.84 0.64 -1.37 9,90 9.14 2.03 6.04 1969... 1970... 1971... 1972... 1973... 1974... 1975... 1976... 1977... 1978... 1958, ,. 1959.,, 1960... 1961,,. 1962... 1963... 1964... 1965... 1966... 1967... 1968... 1969... 1970... 1971... 1972... 1973... 1974... 1975... 1976... 1977... 1978... June July Oct. Dec. IQ IVQ AVERAGE FOR PERIOD --10.16 5.04 3.28 0.48 2.44 1.58 -2,09 5.82 1.29 1.65 0,29 -3.59 4.73 3.92 1.36 3.63 -1.50 -0.27 5.16 1.77 3.01 -3.05 2.24 4.53 2.47 -3.43 2.90 0.93 -1.51 3.41 3.43 1.72 -0.08 -0.74 3,80 4.28 1.12 -0.48 -0,19 -0.22 0.68 2.77 1.58 3.49 4.25 10.60 3.96 4.21 -1.18 5,16 -1.84 1.43 3.58 2.10 4.93 12.80 12.23 0.61 7.99 2.17 2.28 1.39 1.00 3.36 3.53 6.95 12.02 5.65 3.94 7.90 1.12 3.23 0,48 0.01 3.80 5.76 2.48 8,05 5.93 4.61 9.89 1.52 1.85 2.54 1. 93 -1.20 1. 46 1.79 0. 78 0.56 3. 65 5.59 9. 10 8.03 5. 32 7,80 10. 06 3.00 5. 52 9.18 5, 74 11. 30 1 3 . 2 6 -3,15 1.29 2.85 0.37 1.91 1.06 0.62 11.30 9.14 4.24 4.05 -2.60 4.89 3.67 -0.62 2.41 1.96 3.75 8,25 9.48 3.61 7.28 0,17 2.42 -0.22 1.04 3.24 2.40 5.12 9.69 9 ,49 2.84 6.70 1.50 2.57 0.25 0.86 2,67 6.82 5 .28 8.64 4.82 6.51 11.48 -1.02 2.79 1.64 0,41 2.56 3.06 3.69 9 .47 8.23 4.30 7.38 6.17 2.15 -7.20 1.10 9.95 7.45 16.03 7,00 12.06 0.12 -18.97 6.65 -8. 00 -0. 95 16. 78 4. 31 8. 62 -6. 22 10. 88 10.70 4.39 1.14 0.91 14.62 3.83 -0.60 2.73 17.84 29.18 9.39 3.24 9.75 6.71 19,45 9.91 11.16 0.20 1.65 6.70 21.00 19.62 -1.28 2.84 2.68 1.74 2.34 1,50 0.07 11.34 8.12 6.83 2.98 -2.09 3.26 2.40 -0.38 2.57 2.48 4.24 7.68 5.24 4.85 14.00 -4.63 5.77 3.58 -0.71 1.78 2.02 3.94 10.96 10.26 1.63 2.09 -1.07 5.63 5.04 -0.78 2.88 1.37 3.06 6.11 12.94 4.34 5.76 14.88 -1.92 -3.97 -8.48 8.88 12.29 5.69 6.52 23,70 50.95 1,04 - 20.14 4.00 16.76 3.70 -8,26 10.31 26.14 52.21 14.09 5.65 6.64 4.72 14.32 19.79 -3.40 8.35 2.80 1.70 4.70 41.00 30.01 - 17.21 - 34.49 13.01 2.15 -0.18 -6.83 13.07 14.92 -14,54 -36.50 - 17.28 4.43 Q 1.96 2.77 -2.79 .91 .27 .83 .27 - .54 .52 .54 3.40 -4.03 0.19 5.24 -0.40 1.56 1.04 3.17 12.67 10.15 3.86 3.14 --17.76 6.04 III 3.56 0.85 -0,90 0.76 6.37 1.40 1,19 -0.09 2.41 5,22 3,15 0,16 -1.42 -0.01 5.56 1.44 1.84 -0.34 2.69 8.74 5.54 20.42 Annual II Q 4 . 2 7 3.05 -1.31 -1. 32 -0. 79 - 0 , 3 7 6.29 5. 22 2.60 1. DO 1,22 4 . 57 -2. 27 - 4 . 7 2 4,31 2 . 34 4,07 4 . 20 2.35 4 . 09 -4. 75 - 0 , 6 7 1.57 3.84 -3.96 4.52 1.33 2.06 0.37 0.01 5.38 4.15 2.54 22.94 44.54 -11.09 -10.19 2,99 1.46 -2,08 5.26 1.30 0.59 •1.87 29.40 14.17 --14.20 -5.72 20.42 12.02 6.02 21.02 -5.66 7.16 14.21 -5,54 18.56 3.13 8.06 -3.66 9.70 DIFFUSION INDEX OF INDUSTRIAL MATERIALS PRICES--13 INDUSTRIAL MATERIALS 2 (PERCENT RISING OVER 1-MONTH SPANS) 8.86 -4.99 -4.58 13.94 17.00 0.58 -3.47 3.47 38.55 16.95 -13.58 -14.03 -16.53 26.58 -10.32 -8.68 -2.92 -10,65 -3.69 16.43 8.15 5.75 -4.45 8.02 -11.22 -4.40 ® AVERAGE FOR PERIOD 30 ,8 61.5 92,3 23.1 26.9 46.2 76.9 46.2 34.6 23.1 7.7 26.9 65.4 26.9 46.2 34.6 65.4 50.0 30.8 23.1 26.9 57.7 34.6 30.8 46.2 73.1 42.3 50.0 46.2 53,8 19.2 61.5 46.2 23.1 3.8 73.1 65.4 42.3 46.2 53.8 42.3 73.1 30.8 42.3 57.7 46.2 38,5 23.1 42,3 42.3 34.6 76.9 30.8 50.0 46.2 69.2 73.1 26,9 50.0 46.2 53.8 88.5 11.5 42.3 42.3 30.8 76.9 46,2 38.5 50.0 88.5 96.2 26.9 46.2 46.2 42.3 53.8 73.1 42.3 38.5 69.2 92.3 46.2 53.8 30.8 80.8 69.2 73.1 26.9 50.0 23.1 73.1 61.5 34.6 26.9 53.8 38.5 61.5 34.6 69 .2 69 .2 84 .6 50 .0 42 ,3 61 .5 50 .0 84 .6 65 .438 .5 50.0 50,0 80.8 53.8 50.0 50.0 53.8 69.2 50.0 50.0 48.7 64.1 26.9 39.8 51.3 61.5 48.7 37.2 50.0 32.0 70.5 35.9 38.5 35.9 62.8 59.0 30.8 46.2 44.9 70.5 92.3 28,2 47.4 39.8 51.3 66.6 64.1 35,9 56.4 47.4 79.5 55.1 42,3 46.1 52.5 64.1 59.0 41.0 42.9 72.8 45. B 38.8 40.4 54.5 62.8 50.6 40.1 46.2 42.3 65.4 38.5 69.2 53.8 57.7 26.9 69.2 53.8 50.0 38.5 50.0 46.2 73.1 34.6 61,5 50.0 50.0 50.0 34.6 38.5 38.5 73.1 42.3 80.8 46.2 46.2 46.2 73.1 57.7 26.9 57.7 38.5 50,0 50.0 69.2 38.5 50.0 69.2 84.6 50.0 34.6 34.6 61.5 57.7 42.3 57.7 53.8 46,2 26.9 57.7 23.1 34,6 26.9 73.1 57.7 57.7 42.3 30.8 61.5 26.9 46.2 34.6 57.7 42.3 92.3 53.8 46.2 53.8 30,8 34.6 61.5 38.5 34.6 26.9 30.8 76.9 57.7 46.2 76.9 46.2 42.3 73.1 50.0 19.2 50.0 65.4 34.6 65.4 34.6 53.8 50.0 46,2 65.4 53.8 7.7 42.3 65.4 69.2 53.8 23.1 42.3 57.7 73.1 88.5 61.5 26.9 53.8 76.9 88 .5 61 .5 46 .2 26 .9 76 .9 65 .4 69 .2 42 ,3 57 .7 57 .7 76 .9 30.8 53.8 26.9 61.5 34.6 61.5 50.0 61.5 42.3 61.5 53.8 41.1 55.1 51.3 64.1 50.0 53.8 51.3 50.0 59.0 38.4 48.7 57.7 55,1 50.0 56.4 41.0 52.6 41.0 62.8 35.9 42.3 34.6 67.9 59.0 42.3 61.5 42.3 41.0 66.7 47.4 20.5 39.7 53.9 62.8 56.4 32.1 43.6 56.4 66.7 69.2 55.1 42.3 57.7 69.2 57.4 56.4 43.9 56.4 47.4 53.5 57.0 53.8 39.4 44.5 51.6 50.0 57.7 34.6 76.9 84.6 73.1 38.5 65.4 73.1 46.2 61.5 73.1 92.3 73.1 69.2 61.5 53.8 50.0 73.1 84.6 69.2 53.8 30.8 73.1 80.8 50.0 76.9 69.2 65.4 61.5 57.7 65,4 50.0 46.2 38.5 57.7 73.1 34.6 30.8 65.4 69.2 30.8 46.2 53.8 73.1 46.2 46.2 69.2 73.1 30.8 46.2 61.5 69.2 38.5 57.7 73.1 69.2 34.6 61.5 69.2 61.5 34.6 53.8 34.6 50.0 30.8 53.8 57.7 34.6 50.0 57.7 34.6 46.2 34.6 50.0 61.5 42.3 26.9 34.6 50.0 65 .4 42 .3 53 .8 53 .8 73 .1 23 .1 53 .8 61 .5 65.4 42.3 53.8 76.9 73.1 23.1 57.7 65.4 59.0 51.3 56.4 78.2 82.0 66.7 46.2 66.7 66.7 42.3 53.9 60.2 70.5 47.4 44.9 66.7 64.1 32,1 53.8 62,8 55.1 41.0 56.4 47.4 59.0 39 ,7 52.5 64.1 62.8 24.4 48.7 59.0 62.2 41 .4 54 .2 66.3 67,6 44.9 49.0 59.9 967. DIFFUSION INDEX OF INDUSTRIAL MATERIALS PRICES — 13 INDUSTRIAL MATERIALS 2 {PERCENT RISING OVER 9-MONTH SPANS) 1949... 1950... 1951... 1952... 1953... 1954... 1955... 1956... 1957... 11.5 61.5 92.3 26.9 23.1 46.2 5318 53.8 46.2 11,5 61.5 76.9 19.2 15.4 53,8 69.2 46.2 46.2 19.2 84.6 42.3 26.9 15.4 61.5 73.1 50.0 46.2 3.8 92.3 30.8 23.1 15.4 61.5 69.2 46.2 30.8 0.0 92.3 23.1 23.1 15.4 57.7 76.9 46.2 23.1 46.2 7.7 100.0 23.1 30.8 26.9 61.5 73.1 57.7 23.1 38 .5 23.1 100.0 23,1 30.8 30.8 53.8 76.9 53.8 15.4 53.8 34.6 100.0 15.4 34.6 30.8 61.5 84.6 57.7 15.4 53.8 61.5 100.0 15.4 42.3 38.5 69.2 84.6 53.8 23.1 42.3 61.5 100.0 15.4 46.2 38.5 61.5 84.6 42.3 23.1 1958... 1959... I960.,, 1961... 1962... 1963... 1964... 1965... 1966... 1967... 1968... 26,9 69.2 53.8 61.5 30.8 65.4 76.9 73.1 53.8 7.7 38.5 34.6 69.2 53.8 61.5 34.6 69.2 76.9 80.8 38.5 19.2 53.8 46.2 61.5 46.2 53.8 30.8 69.2 61.5 61.5 34.6 15.4 30.8 65.4 53.8 30.8 53.8 15.4 61.5 69.2 42.3 38.5 11.5 46.2 50.0 57.7 38.5 69.2 11.5 65.4 76.9 50.0 26.9 19.2 42.3 69,2 76.9 46,2 69.2 19.2 53.8 80.8 50.0 11.5 11.5 61.5 84.6 61.5 34.6 50.0 30.8 53.8 84.6 57.7 11.5 34.6 65.4 76.9 61.5 23.1 53.8 38,5 53.8 76.9 57.7 11.5 30.8 57.7 76.9 61.5 30.8 69.2 34.6 57.7 61,5 50.0 3.8 38,5 80.8 76.9 53.8 38.5 53,8 34.6 53.8 69.2 57.7 3.8 38.5 92.3 1969. ,, 76.9 69.2 46.2 84.6 100.0 69.2 19.2 65.4 76.9 61,5 46.2 84.6 92.3 76.9 15.4 65.4 76.9 34.6 46.2 92.3 92.3 61.5 19.2 80.8 76.9 30.8 46.2 92.3 92.3 61.5 50.0 69.2 76.9 26.9 61.5 84.6 80.8 46.2 42.3 73.1 84.6 34.6 69.2 80.8 80.8 46.2 57.7 65.4 80.8 23.1 53.8 69.2 80.8 38.5 34.6 57.7 76.9 19.2 53.8 61.5 88.5 23.1 50.0 61.5 69.2 26.9 46.2 61,5 88.5 23.1 42,3 76.9 69.2 23.1 53.8 76.9 92.3 23.1 42.3 76.9 1948. . . 1970... 1971... 1972... 1973... 1974... 1975... 1976... 1977... 1978... Ncw. 3.58 -1.26 0,35 3.97 1.72 3.23 -2.15 -0.42 5.33 0.96 -4.86 0.56 2.77 -2.95 3.67 2.32 1.92 -0.83 -1.93 4.56 4.21 4.60 -11.59 Sept. 2.77 -0.55 -0.23 7.67 1.24 2.29 -1.38 -0.61 3,76 4.32 1.07 1.03 4.33 -2.35 1.04 4.49 0.80 1.69 -1.87 4.40 6.19 1.76 5.23 Aug. NET CHANGE IN BANK LOANS TO BUSINESSES 1 (ANNUAL RATE, BILLIONS OF DOLLARS) 4.28 1.22 -3.07 1.03 6.00 -0.23 2.94 -0.83 1.60 6.22 3.85 967. 1947... 1948... 1949... 1950... 1951... 1952... 1953... 1954... 1955... 1956... 1957... May 2i!e © AVERAGE FOR P E R I O D 11.5 19 .2 76.9 65 .4 100 .0 1 0 0 . 0 23 .1 30.8 23.1 4 2 .3 46.2 38 ,5 61.5 61 .5 69.2 73 .1 42.3 57 .7 19.2 23 .1 ' 69.2 70.5 24.3 18.0 53.8 65.4 50,0 46.2 3.8 94.9 25.7 25.7 19,2 60.2 73.1 50.0 25.7 48 .7 39.7 100,0 18.0 35.9 33.4 61.5 82.0 55.1 18.0 100.0 23.1 37.2 41.1 61.5 75.6 47.4 21.8 31.4 91.0 34.3 30.8 27.9 59.3 74.0 50,6 27.9 14 '.i 67^9 73.1 46 .2 46 .2 53 .8 50 .0 69 .2 76 .9 57 .7 3 .8 38 .5 92 .3 69.2 46.2 53.8 38.5 65.4 80.8 80.8 50.0 3.8 42.3 84.6 35.9 66.6 51.3 58,9 32.1 67.9 71.8 71,8 42.3 14.1 41.0 61.5 62.8 38,5 64.1 15.4 60.2 75.6 47.4 25.6 14.1 50.0 79.5 61.5 29.5 57.7 34,6 55.1 74.3 55.1 8.9 34.6 68,0 73.1 48.7 46.2 48.7 50.0 67.9 75.6 55.1 3.8 39.8 89.7 62.5 59.9 41,4 57.3 33.0 62.8 74.3 57.4 20.2 25.6 62.2 76 .9 38 .5 84 .6 76 .9 84 .6 19 .2 65 .4 73 .1 69.2 46.2 84.6 92.3 76.9 19.2 65.4 69.2 76.9 55.1 46.2 87.2 94.9 69.2 17.9 70.5 79.5 30.8 59.0 85.9 84.6 51.3 50.0 69.2 75.6 23.1 51.3 64.1 85.9 28.2 42.3 65,4 71.8 35.9 74,3 82.0 84.6 20.5 57.7 73.1 75.9 36.2 57.7 79.8 87.5 42.3 42.0 69.6 'This series contains revisions beginning with 1974. 'This series contains revisions beginning with 1948. This series is now based on unadjusted components. 24 .3 (APRIL 1978) 103 G. Experimental Data and Analyses Net Contributions of Individual Components to the Leading, Roughly Coincident, and Lagging Composite Indexes Net contribution to index Basic data Series title (and unit of measure) LEADING INDICATORS 1, Average workweek, production workers, manufacturing (hours) . 3. Layoff rate, manufacturing 1 (per 100 employees) 8. New orders for consumer goods and materials in 1972 dollars (billion dollars) 32. Vendor performance, companies reporting slower deliveries (percent) 12. Net business formation (index: 1967=100) 20. Contracts and orders for plant and equipment in 1972 dollars (billion dollars) 29. New building permits, private housing units (index: 1967=100) 36. Change in inventories on hand and on order in 1972 dol . , smoothed2 (ann. rate, bil. dol.) . 92. Change in sensitive prices, smoothed2 (percent) 19. Stock prices, 500 common stocks (index: 1941-43=10) 104. Change in total liquid assets, smoothed2 (percent) 105. Money supply (Ml) in 1972 dollars (billion dollars) 910. Composite index of 12 leading indicators 3 (index: 1967^100) ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS 41. Employees on nonagricultural payrolls (thousands) . . . 51. Personal income less transfers in 1972 dollars (annual rate, billion dollars). . . . 47. Industrial production, total (index: 1967=100) 57. Manufacturing and trade sales in 1972 dollars (million dollars) 920. Composite index of 4 roughly coincident indicators 3 (index: 1967=100) LAGGING INDICATORS 91. Average duration of unemployment1 (weeks) 70. Manufacturing and trade inventories, total, in 1972 dollars (billion dollars) 62. Labor cost per unit of output, manufacturing (index: 1967=100) 109. Average prime rate charged by banks (percent) 72. Commercial and industrial loans outstanding (milliondollars) . . 95. Ratio, consumer installment debt to personal income (percent) 930. Composite index of 6 lagging indicators 9 (index: 1967=000) Dec. 1977 Feb. 1978 Jan. 1978 40.5 39.6 Dec. to Jan. 1978 Mar. 1978 r40.0 p40.5 Jan. to Feb. 1978 Feb. to Mar. 1978 -0.68 0.30 0.45 0.09 0.0 0.0 1.0 0.9 0.9 pO.9 r35.92 r35.81 r36.98 p36.80 -0.01 0.15 -0.03 56 55 64 67 -0.03 0.31 0.12 rl34.8 rl34.9 6135.6 NA 0.01 0.07 NA rl3.40 rl3.00 ri4.42 p!3.40 -0.08 0.27 -0.22 156.1 128.9 130.2 144.1 -0.59 0.03 0.38 r 9.85 rll.74 p9.85 WA 0.11 -0.11 rl.02 rl.60 rl.64 1.23 0.26 0.02 -0.22 93.82 90.25 88.98 88.82 -0.23 -0.08 -0.01 ri.10 rl.03 rO.92 pO«81 -0.21 -0.32 -0.39 226.8 226.8 225.2 p224.0 0.0 -0,33 -0.30 135.2 rl33.5 rl34.2 p!34.1 -1.26 0.52 -0.07 83,429 r83,719 r84,055 p84,498 0.28 0.32 0.56 981.1 r972.3 971.4 6978.8 -0.41 -0.04 0.45 r!39.7 rl38.6 rl39.0 p!41.0 -0.21 0.08 0.51 146,406 rl40,370 p!44,174 NA -0.93 0.59 NA rl32.7 rl33.8 p!35.6 -1.41 0.83 1.35 13.8 13.1 12.5 12.3 0.30 0.27 0.14 236.47 r237.44 P237.96 NA 0.18 0.10 rl59.4 rl63.2 rl65.0 p!66.1 0.73 0,34 0.30 0.41 0.16 0.0 0.43 134.6 7.75 7.93 8.00 8.00 rl25,487 r!26,481 r!28,539 p!30,299 0.17 0.35 12.98 13.11 P13.22 NA 0.41 0.35 132.6 r!35.3 rl37.3 P138.3 2.04 1.48 HA NA NA 0.73 NOTE: The net contribution of an individual component is that component's share in the composite movement of the group. It is computed by dividing the standardized and weighted change for the component by the sum of the weights for the available components and dividing that result by the index standardization factor. See the 1977 HANDBOOK Of CYCLICAL INDICATORS (pp. 74-75) for weights and standardization factors. NA, not available, p, preliminary, r, revised, e, estimated. series is inverted in computing the composite index; i.e., a decrease in this series is considered an upward movement. This series is a weighted 4-term moving average (with weights 1,2,2,1) placed at the terminal month of the span. figures in the net contribution columns are percent changes in the index. The percent change is equal (except for rounding differences) to the sum of the individual components1 contributions plus the trend adjustment factor. The trend adjustment factor for the leading index is 0.170; for the coincident index, -0.158; for the lagging index, -0.153. 2 104 G. Experimental Data and Analyses—Continued Recovery Comparisons: Current and Selected Historical Patterns 8. New orders for consumer goods and materials, 1972 dollars, smoothed 1 Deviations from ref. peak Percent Actual data for current cycle MONTHS DEVIFROM ATIONS CURRENT MONTH REF. FROM ACTUAL AND TROUGH 11/73 DATA YEAR SERIES 8l BIL. DOL +20 23 24 -1.7 -1.2 35.20 35.40 2/77 3/77 +15 25 26 27 28 -1.1 -2.3 -2.9 -2.3 35.44 35.02 34.79 35.00 4/77 5/77 6/77 7/77 29 30 31 32 -2.1 -0.9 -0.7 35.05 35.49 35.59 35.83 8/77 9/77 10/77 11/77 +10 +5 0 • 35 -5 0.0 New orders for consumer goods and materials, 1972 dollars, smoothed 1 (TIT Deviations from spec, trough Actual data for current cycle Percent +45 • 38 +40 +35 • 36 +30 33 0.1 35.86 12/77 34 1.2 36.24 1/78 35 2.0 36.53 2/78 MONTHS DEVIFROM ATIONS CURRENT MONTH SPEC. AND FROM ACTUAL TROUGH 3/75 DATA YEAR • 34+25 +20 • 32 1 SERIES 8 BIL. DOL. -10 -15 • 30 -20 -J -25 20. Contracts and orders for plant and equipment, 1972 dollars, smoothed 1 35.20 35.40 2/77 3/77 25 26 27 28 32.2 30.7 29.8 30.6 35.44 35.02 34.79 35.00 4/77 5/77 6/77 7/77 29 30 31 32 30.8 32.4 32.8 33.7 35.05 35.49 35.59 35.83 8/77 9/77 10/77 11/77 mi 33 34 35 Percent +30 • 17 +25 MONTHS FROM REF. TROUGH +15 • 15 +10 +5 0 • 13 -5 • 11 -20 -30 -12 -6 0. +6 +12 +18+24+30+36 Months from reference troughs +5 20. Contracts and orders for plant and equipment, 1972 dollars, smoothed 1 Percent +50 •lo +45 -13.8 -12.3 11.51 11.72 2/77 3/77 25 26 27 28 -10.1 -8.8 -9.5 -9.1 12.02 12,18 12.10 12.15 4/77 5/77 6/77 7/77 29 30 31 32 -8.6 -9.7 -7.8 -5.6 12.21 12.06 12.32 12.62 8/77 9/77 10/77 11/77 33 34 35 -6.0 -1.1 12.56 13.22 13.55 12/77 1/78 2/78 +25 MONTHS DEVIFROM ATIONS CURRENT MONTH AND SPEC. FROM ACTUAL 3/75 DATA YEAR TROUGH +20 1.4 •as 0 23 24 •is -15 -25 33.8 35.86 12/77 36.24 1/78 35.2 36.53 2/78 36.3 DEVIATIONS CURRENT MONTH FROM ACTUAL AND 11/73 DATA YEAR • 30 +10 SERIES 20 * BIL. DOL +20 -10 +15 31.3 32.1 23 24 +40 +35 • 13 +30 SERIES 20 * BIL. DOL. 23 24 20.3 22.5 11.51 11.72 2/77 3/77 25 26 27 28 25.6 27.3 26.4 27.0 12.02 12.18 12.10 12.15 4/77 5/77 6/77 7/77 29 30 31 32 27.6 26.1 28.8 31.9 12.21 12.06 12.32 12.62 8/77 9/77 10/77 11/77 33 34 35 31.2 38.1 41.6 12.56 13.22 13.55 12/77 1/78 2/78 •9 -12 -6 0 +6 +12 +18 +24 +30 +36 Months from specific troughs NOTE: For an explanation of these charts, see "How to Read Charts" on p. 104 of the January 1978 issue. series is an MCD moving average placed on the center month of the span. Specific trough dates used, however, are those for the actual monthly series. Numeral indicates latest month used in computing the series. l This 2 105 G. Experimental Data and Analyses—Continued Recovery Comparisons: Current and Selected Historical Patterns 36. Net change in inventories on hand and on order, smoothed 1 -I +30 fun MONTHS PROM REP. TROUGH i +20 +10 CURRENT MONTH AND ACTUAL DATA iTEAR 23 24 SERIES 36 ANN, RATE BIL. DDL. 7.24 2/77 11.78 3/77 25 26 27 28 12.56 11.56 12.36 12.65 4/77 5/77 6/77 7/77 29 30 31 32 14.54 15.84 14.54 12,18 8/77 9/77 10/77 11/77 33 34 35 9.85 11.74 9.85 12/77 1/78 2/78 36. Net change in inventories on hand and on order, smoothed1 +50 +40 -10 MONTHS DEVIFROM ATIONS CURRENT MONTH SPEC. FROM ACTUAL AND TROUGH DATA YEAR 4/75 -20 22 23 24 1954 -30 25 26 92. Change in sensitive prices, smoothed l |LJT1 +30 0-10 SERIES 36 ANN. RAT -^ BIL. DOL 7.24 2/77 44.63 11.78 49.17 3/77 49.95 12.56 4/77 28 48.95 49.75 50.04 51.93 11.56 12.36 12.65 14.54 5/77 6/77 7/77 8/77 29 30 31 32 53.23 51.93 49.57 47,24 15.84 14.54 12.18 9.85 9/77 10/77 11/77 12/77 33 34 49.13 47.24 11,74 9,85 1/78 2/78 27 -I -40 •0 MONTHS FROM RBF. TROUGH +20 +10 92. Change in 1 sensitive prices, smoothed un CURRENT MONTH AND ACTUAL DATA YEAR Actual +7 +6 SCRIES 92 PERCENT 44 24 1.11 3/77 25 26 27 2.01 1.46 0.38 -0.05 4/77 5/77 6/77 7/77 29 30 31 32 -0.02 8/77 33 34 35 36 0.25 0.48 9/77 10/77 0.64 11/77 1.02 1.60 1.64 1.23 12/77 1/78 2/78 3/78 +5 +4 +3 MONTHS DEVIFROM ATIONS CURRENT MONTH SPEC. FROM ACTUAL AND TROUGH DATA YEAR 2/75 • 4-1 SERIES 92 PERCENT -2 -12-6 0 +6 +12+18+24+30+36 Months from reference troughs +2 25 26 27 28 3.42 2.87 1.79 1.11 2.01 1.46 0.38 3/77 4/77 5/77 6/77 29 30 31 32 1.36 1.39 1.66 1.89 -0.05 -0.02 0,25 0.48 7/77 8/77 9/77 10/77 33 34 35 36 2.05 2.43 3.01 3.05 0.64 1.02 1.60 1.64 11/77 12/77 1/78 2/78 37 2.64 1.23 2.52 •0 +1 -12 -6 3/78 NOTE: Foie an explanation of these charts, see "How to Read Charts" on p. 104 of the January 1978 issue. *Th1s series is a weighted 4-term moving average (with weights 1,2,2,1) placed on the terminal month of the span. 106 0 +6 +12+18 +24+30+36 Months from specific troughs G. Experimental Data and Analyses—Continued Recovery Comparisons: Current and Selected Historical Patterns QRTRS. DEVIFROM ATIONS CURRENT QRTR. REF. FROM ACTUAL AND TROUGH DATA YEAR IV/73 6 • uoo +10 • 1350 +5 •1300 SERIESJ 50 JWN. RATE EJIL. DOL. 3.3 1283.7 HI/76 7 3.6 1287.4 IV/76 8 5.5 1311.0 1/77 11/77 9 7.1 1330.7 10 8.4 1347.4 HI/77 11 9.5 1360.2 IV/77 12 9.3 1358.3 1/78 +15 QRTRS. DEVIFROM ATIONS CURRENT QRTR. SPEC. FROM ACTUAL AND TROUGH 1/75 DATA YEAR 6 • 1250 50. GNP in 1972 dollars • 1350 • 1300 +10 SERIES; so t^NN. RATE E IL. DOL. 9.7 1283.7 HI/76 7 10.1 1287.4 IV/76 8 12.1 1311.0 1/77 9 13.8 1330.7 11/77 10 15.2 1347.4 HI/77 11 16.3 1360.2 IV/77 12 16.1 1358.3 1/78 • 1250 +5 -•1200 -5 QRTRS . FROM REF. TROUGH 30. Change in business inventories, 1972 dollars CURRENT QRTR. AND ACTUAL DATA YEAR 6 SERIES 30 A N N . RATE BIL. DOL. 13.8 H I / 7 6 7 -1.8 IV/76 8 9.7 1/77 13.2 11/77 • 1200 30. Change in business inventories, 1972dollars Q +45 +40 +15 +10 +5 -"-20 -12 -6 11 8.7 IV/77 12 11.3 1/78 QRTRS. DEVIFROM ATIONS CURRENT QRTR. SPEC. FROM ACTUAL AND TROUGH 1/75 DATA YEAR 6 SERIES 30 A N N . RATE B I L . DOL. 33.8 13.8 HI/76 7 18.2 -1.8 IV/76 8 29.7 9.7 1/77 9 33.2 13.2 II/77 10 35.7 15.7 HI/77 11 28.7 12 31.3 8.7 11.3 +30 • +10 +25 • +5 +20 •o +15 »-5 +10 •-lo +5 -15 IV/77 1/78 0+6^+12+18 +24+30 +36+42 Months from reference troughs NOTE: +35 15.7 H I / 7 7 10 0 •+20 -12 -6 0 +6 +12 +18 +24 +30 +36 +42 Months from specific troughs For an explanation of these charts, see "How to Read Charts" on p. 104 of the January 1978 issue. 107 G. Experimental Data and Analyses—Continued Recovery Comparisons: Current and Selected Historical Patterns MONTHS DEVIFROM ATIONS CURRENT MONTH REP, AND FROM ACTUAL TROUGH DATA YEAR 11/73 74. Industrial production, nondurable manufactures SERIES 74 1967=100 +12 • H5 24 8.8 147.0 3/77 25 26 27 28 8.8 9.9 9.8 10.0 147.0 148,5 148.4 148.6 4/77 5/77 6/77 7/77 29 30 31 32 10.6 10.7 10.7 11.1 149.4 149,5 149.6 150.1 S/77 9/77 10/77 11/77 33 34 35 36 11.7 10.9 11.5 12.7 150.9 149.8 150.6 152.2 12/77 1/78 2/78 3/78 74. Industrial production, nondurable manufactures X"Q • ISO +25 +20 • HO +15 MONTHS DEVIFROM ATIONS CURRENT MONTH AND SPEC. FROM ACTUAL 3/75 P&TA YEAR TROUGH 3JO +10 SERIES 74 1967^100 -4 • 125 73. Industrial production, durable manufactures 24 26.6 147,0 3/77 25 26 2? 28 26.6 27.9 27.8 28.0 147.0 148.5 148.4 148.6 4/77 5/77 6/77 7/77 29 30 31 32 28.7 28.8 28.9 29.3 149.4 149.5 149.6 150.1 8/77 9/77 10/77 11/77 33 34 35 36 30.0 29.0 29.7 31.1 - 150.9 149.8 150.6 152.2 12/77 1/78 2/78 3/78 +5 73. Industrial production, durable manufactures Percent MONTHS DEVIFROM ATIONS CURRENT MO NTS REP. FROM ACTUAL AND TROUGH DATA YEAR 11/73 +35 lUO SERIES 73 1967=100 - +4 •us o _ _4 •las +30 24 -2.3 126.8 3/77 25 26 27 28 -1.4 -0.4 0.5 1.4 128.0 129.3 130.5 131.6 4/77 5/77 6/77 7/77 29 30 31 32 1.2 1.5 2.0 2.2 13l'.3 131.7 132.4 132.7 8/77 9/77 10/77 11/77 33 34 35 36 2.8 0.8 1.6 3.5 133.4 130.9 131.9 134.3 12/77 1/78 2/78 3/78 • 135 +25 +20 +15 MONTHS DEVIFROM ATIONS CURRENT MONT3 SPEC. FROM ACTUAL AND TROUGH 3/75 DATA YEAR SERIES 73 1967=100 12 24 21.1 126.8 3/77 16 25 26 27 28 22.3 23.5 24.6 25.7 128.0 129.3 130.5 131.6 4/77 5/77 6/77 7/77 29 30 31 32 25.4 25.8 26.5 26.7 131,3 131.7 132.4 132.7 8/77 9/77 10/77 11/77 33 34 35 36 27,4 25.0 26.0 28.3 133.4 130.9 131.9 134.3 12/77 1/78 -1 -20 -12 -6 0 +6 +12 +18 +24 +30 +36 Months from reference troughs NOTE: • 105 2/78 3/78 For an explanation of these charts, see "How to Read Charts" on p. 104 of the January 1978 issue. 108 -12 -6 0 +6 +12+18+24+30+36 Months from specific troughs • 1.30 nag • 3,20 +10 •115 +5 • no ALPHABETICAL INDEX-SERIES FINDING GUIDE Series titles (See complete titles in "Titles and Sources of Series," following this index) Current issue (page numbers) Series number Charts Tables Historical Series data descriptions (issue date) (issue date) A Accession rate manufacturing Agricultural products, exports Anticipations and intentions Business expenditures, new plant and equipment Business expenditures, new plant and equipment, Dl . . Consumer sentiment index Employees manufacturing and trade, Dl Inventories manufacturing and trade Dl New orders, manufacturing, Dl . . . . Prices selling manufacturing Dl Prices, selling, retail trade, Dt Prices selling wholesale trade Dl Profits net manufacturing and trade Dl Sales, net, manufacturing and trade, Dl Automobiles Expenditures personal consumption Imports of automobiles and parts 2 604 17 55 60 90 1/78 6/77 8/68 61 970 58 974 975 971 976 978 977 972 973 25 39 23 39 39 39 ' 39 39 39 39 39 66 75 64 75 75 75 75 75 75 75 75 8/77 8/77 1/77 8/77 8/77 8/77 8/77 8/77 8/77 8/77 8/77 11/68 11/68* 11/68* 11/68* 11/68* 11/68* 11/68* 11/68* 11/68* 11/68* 11/68* 55 616 23 55 64 90 10/77 6/77 10/69* B Balance of payments-See International transactions. Bank loans to businesses, net change Bank rates-See Interest rates. Bank reserves Free reserves Member bank borrowing from Federal Reserve Bonds-See Interest rates. Borrowing-See Credit. Budget-See Government. Building-See Construction. Business equipment, industrial production Business expenditures, new plant and equipment Business expenditures, new plant and equipment, Dl Business failures, current liabilities Business formation Business incorporations Business inventories-See Inventories. Business loans-See Bank loans. Business saving 72 112 16,36 33 72 71 4/78 4/78 11/72 11/72 93 94 34 34 71 71 6/77 2/78 11/72 29 76 61 970 14 12 13 14,26 25* 25 39 34 13 24 24 66 66 66 75 71 64 64 8/77 2/78 8/77 8/77 12/77 12/76 1/77 295 47 81 12/77 21 21 21 63 63 63 1/78 1/78 1/78 25 25 38 65 65 74 1/78 1/78 12/77 12 30 30 59 69 69 7/77 10/77 10/77 4/69 li/68 11/68* C Canada-See International comparisons. Capacity utilization Manufacturing (BEA) 83 Manufacturing (FRB) 82 Materials .. 84 Capital appropriations, manufacturing Backlog 97 11 Newly approved Newly approved 01 965 Capital investment-See Investment, capital. Capital investment commitments Cl 914 Cashflow corporate constant dollars 35 Cash flow corporate current dollars 34 Civilian labor force-See also Employment. Employment 442 Employment as percent of population s 90 Total . . 441 Unemployed 37 Coincident indicators, four Composite index 920 Composite index rate of change 920c Diffusion index 951 Ratio to lagging indicators, composite index 940 Commercial and industrial buildings, contracts awarded . . 9 Commercial and industrial loans outstanding 72 Commercial and industrial loans outstanding, net change . 112 Compensation Compensation, average hourly, all employees, nonfarm business sector 345 Compensation, average hourly, all employees, nonfarm business sector percent changes 345c 280 Compensation of employees Compensation of employees, percent of national 64 income Compensation, real average hourly, all employees, 346 nonfarm business sector Compensation, reai average hourly, all employees, nonfarm business sector percent changes 346c Earnings, average hourly, production workers, 340 private nonfarm economy Earnings, average hourly, production workers, private nonfarm economy, percent changes 340c Earnings, real average hourly, production 341 workers private nonfarm economy Earnings, real average hourly, production 341c workers, private nonfarm economy, percent changes , 348 Wage and benefit decisions first year 349 Wage and benefit decisions life of contract Wages and salaries, mining, manufacturing, and construction 53 1/72* 1/72 52 19 52 19,52 88 61 88 61,88 3/78 4/78 3/78 3/78 4/72* 11 40 37 12 24 16,36 33 59 7/77 7/77 2/78 7/77 1/78 4/78 4/78 11/75* 73*" 59 65 72 71 ii/72' 11/72 50 86 6/76* 10/72* 4/72* 4/72* 51 46 86 81 6/76* 11/77 10/72* 10/69 31,48 69,82 10/77 10/69* ' 50 87 6/76* 10/72* 51 87 6/76* 10/72* 50 86 10/77 6/72* 51 86 10/77 6/72* 50 86 10/77 6/72* 51 51 51 86 87 87 10/77 8/77 8/77 6/72* 6/72* 6/72* 20 62 1/78 Series titles (See complete titles in "Titles and Sources of Series," following this index) Current issue (page numbers) Series number Charts Composite indexes Coincident indicators 920 Four coincides 920c Four coinciders rate of change 940 Ratio to lagging indicator index Lagging indicators 930 Six (aggers 930c Six laagers rate of change Leading indicators ... 914 Capital investment commitments 915 Inventory investment and purchasing 913 Marginal employment adjustments 917 Money and financial flows 916 Profitability 910 Twelve leaders Twelve leaders, rate of change 9!0c Construction Building permits new private housing 29 Contracts awarded, commercial and industrial bldgs. . . 9 Expenditures, plus machinery and equipment sales 69 Gross private domestic fixed investment N on residential as percent of GNP 248 Nonresidential structures, constant dollars 87 Nonresidential total constant dollars 86 Residential as percent of GNP 249 Residential, total, constant dollars 89 28 Consumer finished goods-See Wholesale prices. Consumer goods and materials, new orders 8 Consumer goods, industrial production 75 Consumer installment debt Debt outstanding 66 113 Net change 95 Ratio to personal income Consumer installment loans, delinquency rate 39 Consumer prices-See also International comparisons. 320 All items index All items percent changes 320c Food, index 322 Food percent changes 322c Consumer sentiment, index 58 Consumption expenditures -See Personal consumption expenditures. Contracts and orders, plant and equipment, constant dol. . 20 Contracts and orders, plant and equipment, current dol. . . 10 116 Corporate bond yields .. . Corporate profits-See Profits. Costs-See Labor costs and Price indexes. Credit 112 Bank loans to businesses, net change Borrowing total private 110 Commercial and industrial loans outstanding 72 Consumer installment debt Debt outstanding 66 Net change 113 Ratio to personal income 95 Consumer installment loans delinquency rate 39 Mortgage debt net change . 33 Crude materials-See Wholesale prices. Tables 11 40 12 59 11 40 Historical Series descriptions data (issue date) [issue date) 7/77 7/77 7/77 11/75* 59 7/77 7/77 11/75* 12 12 12 12 12 11 40 59 59 59 59 59 59 7/77 7/77 7/77 7/77 7/77 7/77 7/77 14,26 24 25 66 65 66 8/77 1/78 8/77 4/69 48 26 26 48 26 26 82 66 66 82 66 66 11/77 10/77 10/77 11/77 10/77 4/77 10/69* 13,22 23 63 64 4/77 2/78 36 33 16,36 34 72 71 72 71 12/77 12/77 1/78 12/77 10/72 10/72 50 50,58 50 50 23 83,93 83,93 83 83 64 3/77 3/77 3/77 3/77 1/77 5/69* 5/69* 5/69* 5/69* 11/68* 13,24 24 35 65 65 72 8/77 8/77 9/77 9/68 ' 7/64 33 33 16,36 71 71 72 4/78 10/77 4/78 11/72 7/64 11/72 36 33 16,36 34 33 72 71 72 71 70 12/77 12/77 1/78 12/77 4/77 10/72 10/72 525 564 548 516 54 54 54 54 89 89 89 89 3/78 10/77 1/78 3/78 39 32 34 13,22 71 63 12/77 1/78 11/72 12/74 970 965 951 974 963 967 39 38 37 39 37 38 8/77 12/77 2/78 8/77 2/78 4/78 11/68* 966 38 962 975 952 950 964 37 39 37 37 38 971 968 976 978 977 969 972 973 961 39 38 39 39 39 38 39 39 37 75 74 73 75 73 74 78 74 77 73 75 73 73 74 76 75 74 75 75 75 74 75 75 73 76 59 5/75* 9/68* 10/69* 6/72* li/72 li/72 D Debt-See Credit. Defense Military prime contract awards National defense purchases New orders, defense products Obligations incurred total ..%... . Deficit-See Government. Deflators-See Price indexes. Delinquency rate consumer installment loans Deliveries vendor performance Diffusion indexes Business expenditures, new plant and equipment Capital appropriations manufacturing Coincidsnt indicators Employees manufacturing and trade Employees on private nonagriculturat payrolls Industrial materials prices Industrial materials prices, components Industrial production ... Industrial production components Initial claims, State unemployment insurance Inventories manufacturing and trade Lagging indicators Leading indicators New orders durable goods industries New orders, durable goods industries components .... New orders, manufacturing Prices 500 common stocks . Prices selling manufacturing Prices selling retail trade . . Prices selling wholesale trade Profits manufacturing Profits net manufacturing and trade Sales net manufacturing and trade Workweek mfg production workers Workweek mfg production workers components Disposable personal income-See Income. , i6/69* 11/68* 4/69* 12/77 9/77* 8/77 2/78 2/78 2/78 6/69* 11/68* 8/77* 6/77 8/77 8/77 8/77 5/7? 8/77 8/77 2/78 ii/68* 5/69* 11/68* 11/68* 11/68* 11/68* 11/68* NOTE: The following abbreviations are used in this index: Cl, composite index; Dl, diffusion index; GPDI, gross private domestic investment; and NIPA, national income and product accounts. *The identification number for this series has been changed since the publication date shown. 109 ALPHABETICAL INDEX-SERIES FINDING GUIDE-Continued Series titles (Seo complete titles in "Titles and Sources of Series," following this index) Current issue (page numbers) Series number Charts Tables Historical Series data descriptions (issue date (issue date) E Earnings-See Compensation, Employment and unemployment Accession rote, manufacturing Civilian labor force total Employee hours in no nagri cultural fstablishmcnts , Employee hours in nonagrieuttural establishments rate of change Employees in mining, mfg., and construction Employees, manufacturing and trade 01 Employees on nonagricultural payrolls Employees on private nonag payrolls 01 Employment, ratio to population Employment, total civilian ... .... Help-wanted advertising in newspapers Help-wanted advertising, ratio to unemployment Initial claims, State unemployment insurance Initial claims, State unemployment insurance, 01 Layoff rato, manufacturing .... Marginal employment adjustments Cl Overtime hours mffj production workers Participation rate, both sexes, 16-13 years old Participation rate, females 20 years and over Participation rate, males 20 years and over Port -time workers for economic reasons Persons engaged in nonagricultural aetivitios . Quit rate, manufacturing Unemployed, both sexes, 18*19 years old .... Unemployed, females 20 years and over Unemployed, full-time workers Unemployed, males 20 years and over Unemployment average duration . Unemployment rate 1 6 weeks and over Unemployment rats, insured, average weekly Unemployment rate, total Unemployment, total civilian .... Workweek, mfg production workers Workweek, mfg. production workers, components Workweek, mfg. production workers, 01 Equipment-See Investment, capital. Exports-See Foreign trade and International transactions. 2 441 17 52 60 88 1/78 3/78 48 18 60 3/78 48e 40 974 41 963 90 442 46 60 5 962 3 913 21 453 452 451 448 42 4 446 445 447 444 91 44 43 43 37 1 40 18 39 15,18 37 19 52 18 18 17 37 13,17 12 17 52 52 52 52 18 17 52 52 52 52 16,19 19 19 19 19,52 13,17 961 3?"" 61 '" 75 61 73 61 88 60 60 60 73 60 59 60 88 88 88 88 61 60 88 88 88 88 61 61 61 61 61,88 60 76 73 3/78 1/78 8/77 1/78 2/78 4/78 3/78 n/77 4/78 n/77 9/77 1/78 7/77 1/78 3/78 3/78 3/78 3/78 3/78 1/78 3/78 3/78 3/78 3/78 3/78 3/78 n/77 3/78 3/78 1/78 Gross business product Fixsd weighted pries index Fixed weighted pries index percent changes ....... Gross domestic product labor cost per unit Gross national product 8/68 G NP constant dollars . .. 4/72* GNP constant dollars differences GNP constant dollars, percent changes 8/68* GNP current dollars 8/68* GNP current dollars differences GNP current dollars percent changes 11/68* GNP ratio to mon§y supply . ... .... 8/68 Goods output in constant dollars Implicit price deflator Implicit price deflator, percent changes 4/72* P@r capita GNP constant dollars 12/74 Gross private domestic invest.-Sse Investment, capital. 6/69' 6/69* 8/68* 12/74 4/72" 119 35 71 9/77 34 41 12 71 79 59 2/78 7/77 311 311e 49 49 83 83 10/77 10/77 887 622 618 602 604 256 252 668 606 620 612 616 267 253 669 614 255 250 251 56 56 56 55 55 45 45 56 55 56 55 55 45 45 56 55 45 45 48 91 91 91 90 90 81 81 91 90 91 90 90 81 81 91 90 81 81 82 8/77 8/77 8/77 6/77 6/77 6/69 4/72 4/72* 8/68 93 34 71 8/77 6/77 8/77 6/77 6/77 11/77 11/77 8/77 6/77 11/77 11/77 11/77 6/77 G Goods output in constant dollars Government budget, NIPA Federal expenditures Federal receipts , , Federal surplus or deficit . , , StotG and local expenditures State and local receipts , , State and local surplus or deficit Surplus or deficit, total Government purchases of goods and services Federal, constant dollars Federal, current dollars Federal, percent of GNP National defense State and local, constant dollars State and local, current dollars State and local, percent of GNP Total constant dollars Total, current dollars , 11/73 11/77 11/77 11/77 49 21 62 10/77 502 501 500 512 511 510 298 53 53 53 53 53 53 47 89 89 89 89 89 89 82 10/77 10/77 10/77 10/77 10/77 10/77 263 262 265 564 267 266 268 261 260 44 44 48 54 44 44 48 44 44 80 80 82 89 80 80 82 80 80 11/77 11/77 11/77 10/77 11/77 11/77 11/77 n/77 11/77 11/77 Charts 10/77 10/77 10/77 7/68 ' 11/77 11/77 11/77 10/69* 10/69* 10/69* 68 49 49 31 50 20,41 £0e 200 200b 200e 107 49 310 31 Oc 217 40 41 32 21 49 49 41 62,79 79 79 79 79 ! 79 i 70 62 03 83 79 48 iiO 18 18 60 60 21 1 17 13,17 1/78 1/78 8/68 961 37 60 60 76 73 28 29 B3 249 26 14,26 26 48 66 86 66 B2 4/77 8/77 6/72 4/69 10/77 11/77 10/69* 310 310c 49 49 83 83 10/77 10/77 10/69* 10/69* 345 50 as 6/76* 10/72* 345c 86 81 69,82 6/76* 280 84 SI 46 31,48 10/72* 10/69 10/69* 346 50 87 6/76* 10/72* 10/72* 311 311c 83 83 69 n/77 11/77 11/77 10/77 10/7? 10/77 10/77 n/77 10/69 10/69 10/69 10/69* 10/69* 10/69 H Help-wanted advertising in newspapers ... Help-wanted advertising, ratio to unemployment Hours of production workers, manufacturing Average weekly overtime ... .... Average workweek Average workweek, components Average workweek D 1 Housing Housing starts , Housing units authorized by local bldg permits Residential GPQI constant dollars Residential GPDI percent of GNP 5/69* 5/69* 5/69" 5/69* 5/69* 5/69* Implicit price deflator GNP Implicit price deflator GNP percent changes Imports-See Foreign trade and International transactions. Income Compensation, average hourly, all employees, nonfarm business sector Compensation, average hourly, all employees, nonfarm business sector percent changes . Compensation of employees Compensation of employees, pet. of nat'l. income Compensation, real average hourly, all employees, nonfsrm business sector Compensation, real average hourly, all employees, nonfarm business sector, percent changes Consumer installment debt, ratio to personal income . . Corporate profits with IVA and CCA Corp. profits with IVA and CCA, pet. of nat'l. income . Disposable personal income constant dollars Disposable personal income, current dollars Disposable personal income, per capita, constant dol. . . Earnings, average hourly, production workers, private nonfarm tconomy Earnings, average hourly, production workers, private nonfarm economy percent changes Earnings, real average hourly, production workers private nonfarm economy Earnings, real average hourly, production workers, private nonfarm economy, percent changes . Income on foreign investment in the U S Income on U S investments abroad Interest net National income Personal income, constant dollars Personal income current dollars Personal income, less transfers, constant dollars Personal income, less transfers, constant dols. rate of chg. Personal income ratio to money supply 5/69" Proprietors' income with IVA and CCA 10/69* Proprietors' income with IVA and CCA, percent of national income . ... .... 11/72 Rental income of persons with CCA Rental income of persons with CCA, pet. of nat'l. income Wage and benefit decisions, first year Wags and benefit decisions life of contract Wages and salaries, mining, mfg., and construction Incorporations new businesses 7/68* Industrial materials prices 7/68* Industrial materials pricss components 7/68* Industrial materials prices 01 Industrial production • SOB also International comparisons. Business equipment Consumer goods 10/69 Durable manufactures Nondurable manufactures 11/73 Total 10/69 Total components 10/69* Total DI 10/69* Total rat@ of change 11/73 Installment debt-See Credit. 10/69 Insured unemployment 10/69* Avg. weekly initial claims, unemploy. insurance Avg. weekly initial claims, unemploy. insurance, 01 ... 16/69 Avg weekly insured unemployment rate 5/69" 5/69* 346c n/77 12/74 4/78 12/74 11/77 10/77 95 286 287 225 224 227 51 16,36 46 48 41 41 41 87 72 81 82 79 79 79 6/76* n/77 11/77 11/77 10/69 10/69* 10/69 10/69 10/69 340 50 86 10/77 6/72* 34Qe §1 86 10/77 6/72* 10/77 6/72* 10/77 6/72* S/69* 5/69* 341 50 86 341 c 652 651 288 283 220 52 223 51 Sic 108 282 SI 56 56 46 48 46 20 41 IS, 20 40 32 46 86 91 91 81 82 81 62 62 62 283 284 285 348 349 53 13 23 48 46 48 51 SI 20 24 29 82 81 82 87 87 967 38 76 75 73 74 47 2S 23 21 21 15,21,57 966 47c 38 40 5 962 45 17 37 19 NOTE: The following abbreviations aro used in this index: Cl, composite index; DI, diffusion index; GPQI, gross private domestic investment; and NIPA, national income and product accounts. *Tho identification number for this series has been changed since the publication date shown. 110 Tobies Historical Sorifis data descriptions (issuo date (issun date) 4/72* 2/78' 94 213 917 Current issun Ipp numbm's) Series mmter 1 F Federal funds rate Federal Government-See Government. Federal Reserve, member bank borrowing from Final soles in constant dollars Financial flows, and money, Cl Fixed In vestment -Sea Investment, capital. Fixed weighted price index NIPA Fixed weighted price index, percent changes, NIPA Peed »SBO Consumer prices. Foreign trade-See also International transactions. Balance on goods and services Balance on merchandise trade Exports, merchandise, adjusted, exe. military Exports, merchandise, total exe. military aid Exports of agricultural products Exports of goods and services, constant del., NIPA Exports of goods and services, current do!., NIPA Exports of goods and services, @xe. military Exports of nonelectrical machinery , Imports, merchandise, adjusted, exe. military , Imports, merchandise total Imports of automobiles and parts Imports of goods and services, constant do!., NIPA .... Imports of goods and services, current do!., NIPA Imports of goods and services total Imports of petroleum and products Not exports, goods and services, constant dal., NIPA Net exports, goods and services, current do!., NIPA . .. Net exports, goods and services, percent of GNP, NIPA France-See International comparisons. Free reserves Series titles (See complete titles in "Titles and Sources of Series," following this index) 70"' 81 64 68 78 74 66 64 62 62 62,92 77 74 60 73 61 1/78 n/77 n/77 8/77 3/77 n/77 n/77 n/77 9/77 9/77 9/77 n/77 9/77 10/69 10/69* 10/69 7/68* n/77 10/69 11/77 11/77 10/69* n/77 8/77 8/77 1/78 1/77 1/78 4/78* 10/69 10/69* 6/72* 6/72* 4/69* 4/69* tin 2/78 2/78 2/78 12/77 11/68 12/77 Mill n/77 9/77 n/77 6/69 6/69* 6/69 ALPHABETICAL INDEX-SERIES FINDING GUIDE-Continued Series titles (See complete titles in "Titles and Sources of Series," following this index) Interest net Interest, net, percent of national income .... .... Interest rates Bank rates on short-term business loans Corporate bond yields Federal funds rate Mortgage yields secondary market . Municipal bond yields Prime rate charged by banks '. . . , . Treasury bill rate Treasury bond yields . Intermediate materials-See Wholesale prices. International comparisons Consumer prices Canada index Canada, percent changes France index France, percent changes Italy index Italy percent changes Japan index Japan percent changes United Kingdom index United Kingdom percent changes United States index United States, percent changes West Germany index West Germany percent changes Industrial production Canada France Italy Japan OECO European countries United Kingdom United States West Germany Stock prices Canada France Italy Japan .. .. United Kingdom United States West Germany . .... International transactions-See also Foreign trade. Balance on goods and services Balance on merchandise trade Exports merchandise adjusted, exc military Exports, merchandise, total exc. military aid Exports of agricultural products Exports of goods and services exc military Exports of nonelectrical machinery . , , . Imports, merchandise, adjusted, exc. military Imports merchandise total Imports of automobiles and parts Imports of goodsand services total Imports of petroleum and products Income on foreign investments in U S Income on U.S investments abroad Inventories Business inventories change constant dollars Business inventories change current dollars Business inventories change, percent of GNP Finished goods manufacturers' Inventories on hand and on order net change • •• Inventories to sales ratio, mfg. arid trade (deflated) Inventory investment and purchasing Cl Manufacturing and trade constant dollars Manufacturing and trade, current dollars ............ Manufacturing and trade, current dollars, change Manufacturing and trade Dl Materials and supplies on hand and on order, mfg Materials and supplies on hand and on order, mfg.. Investment, capital Capital appropriations, manufacturing, backlog ' Capital appropriations manufacturing new Capital appropriations, manufacturing, new, 01 ...'... Capital investment commitments Cl Construction contracts, commercial and industrial Construction expenditures, business and machinery and equipment sales Gross private domestic investment Fixed investment constant dollars Charts Tables Historical Series data descriptions (issue date) (issue date) 288 289 46 48 81 82 12/77 12/77 67 116 119 118 117 109 114 115 36 35 35 35 35 36 35 35 72 72 71 72 72 72 71 72 5/77 9/77 9/77 9/77 9/77 9/77 9/77 9/77 10/69 10/69* 12/74 7/64 11/73 7/64 7/64 11/73 Series titles (See complete titles in "Titles and Sources of Series," following this index) Plant and equipment Business expenditures new Business expenditures, new, 01 Contracts and orders constant dollars Contracts and orders current dollars Investment, foreign Income on foreign investments in U S Income on US investments abroad Italy-See international comparisons. 7/64 7/64 Current issue (page numbers) Series number Tables Charts Historical Series data descriptions (issue date) (issue date) n/68 61 970 20 10 25 39 13,24 24 66 75 65 65 8/77 8/77 8/77 8/77 9/68* 652 651 56 56 91 91 8/77 8/77 5/69* 5/69* 68 62 63 17 31 16,31 31 30 69 69 69 69 930 930c 952 3 11 40 37 13,17 59 910 950 14 104 11 40 37 34 14,32 73 71 70 913 78 12 28 59 67 7/77 2/78 38 27 67 5/77 8 84 13,22 21 63 63 4/77 1/78 11/68* J Japan-See International comparisons. 94 94 93 93 94 94 93 93 93 93 50,58 83,93 83,93 58*" 93 93 6/77 6/77 6/77 6/77 6/77 6/77 6/77 6/77 6/77 6/77 3/77 3/77 6/77 6/77 723 726 727 728 721 722 47 725 57 57 57 57 57 57 92 92 92 92 92 92 7/77 7/77 7/77 7/77 7/77 7/77 15,21,57 62,92 12/77 57 92 7/77 743 746 747 748 742 19 745 58 58 58 58 58 58 58 94 94 94 94 94 94 94 1/78 1/78 1/78 1/78 1/78 1/78 1/78 667 622 618 602 604 668 606 620 612 616 669 614 652 651 56 56 56 55 55 56 55 56 55 55 56 55 56 56 91 91 91 90 90 91 90 91 90 90 91 90 91 91 8/77 8/77 8/77 6/77 6/77 8/77 6/77 8/77 6/77 6/77 8/77 6/77 8/77 8/77 30 245 247 65 36 77 915 70 71 31 975 78 27,43 67,80 43 48 28 14,27 28 12 16,28 28 27 39 28 80 82 67 67 67 59 67 67 67 75 67 10/77 11/77 11/77 38 27 67 5/77 97 11 965 914 9 25 25 38 12 24 65 65 74 59 65 1/78 1/78 69 25 66 8/77 243 242 43 43 80 80 11/77 11/77 87 241 240 26 48 26 26 48 26 43 43 66 82 66 66 82 66 80 80 10/77 11/77 10/77 10/77 11/77 10/77 11/77 11/77 27 24 65 4/77 24 24 65 4/77 733 733c 736 736c 737 737c 738 738c 732 732c 320 320c 735 735c 58 58 58 58 58'" 50 2/78 3/78 5/77 7/77 5/77 2/78 2/78 8/77 2/78 12/77 7/77 1/78 9/72* L 9/72* Labor cost per unit of gross domestic product Labor cost per unit of output manufacturing . . ...... Labor cost per unit of output, private business sector Labor cost price per unit of manufacturing Labor force-See Employment and unemployment. Lagging indicators, six Composite index Composite index rate of change . Diffusion index Layoff rate manufacturing Leading indicators, twelve Composite index .. Composite index rate of change ..... Diffusion index .. .. Liabilities of business failures Liquid assets change in total Loans-See Credit. 9/72* 9/72* 9/72* 5/69* 5/69* 9/72* 10/72* 10/72* 10/72* 10/72* M 11/68 Man-hours-See Employment and unemployment. 10/72* Marginal employment adjustments Cl Materials and supplies on hand and on order, mfg Materials and supplies on hand and on order, mfg. change Materials, crude and intermediate-See Wholesale prices. Materials, industrial-See Price indexes. Materials, new orders for consumer goods and Materials rate of capacity utilization .......' Merchandise trade-See Foreign trade. Military-See Defense. Money and financial flows Cl 5/69* Money supply 5/69* Liquid assets change in total Money supply Ml . . . . . 5/69* Money supply M1 percent changes Money supply M2 ........;............:;;.'.... 5/69* Money supply M2, percent changes .' 5/69* Ratio GNP to money supply Ml Ratio personal income to money supply M2 . .'..,.. .. ..,..'..'..'... 5/69* Mortgage debt net change Mortage yields secondary market . 5/69* Municipal bond yields 5/69* N 910c 10/77 7/68 9/77 9/77 11/68 10/72 11/68 7/77 11/75* Mil Till 73"' 60 59 2/78 1/78 7/77 7/77 2/78 8/68* 5/75* 12/77 12/77 10/72* 917 12 59 7/77 104 105 85 106 102 107 108 33 118 117 14,32 14,32 32 32 32 32 32 33 35 35 70 70 70 70 70 70 70 70 72 72 12/77 10/69 National defense-See Defense. 10/69* National Government-See Government. National income-See Income. New orders, manufacturers' 27 Capital goods industries, nondefense, constant dol Capital goods industries, nondefense, current dol 24 Consumer goods and materials, constant dollars 8 Contracts and orders, plant and equip., constant dol. . . 20 2/69* Contracts and orders, plant and equip., current dol. . . . 10 2/69 548 Defense products ."',..".. 11/68* 7 Durable goods industries, constant dollars ......;;;.. 6 Durable goods industries current dollars Components '' ' Diffusion index . . . 964 971 New orders manufacturing Dl Nonresidential fixed investment, GPDI 88 Producers' durable equipment, constant dollars 87 Structures constant dollars .....;. ..'.;.'..:.. 5/77 5/77 5/77 5/77 10/72 10/72 10/77 9/77 4/77 9/77 9/77 7/64 7/64 9/68 Total, constant dollars . .:.;;;.::.: ...;..' Total percent of GNP .,...'.:.'..' i ...'..'.'..'...... 4/77 4/77 4/77 8/77 8/77 1/78 5/77 5/77 38 39 65 65 63 65 65 89 63 63 76 74 75 8/77 il/68* 86 248 26 26 26 48 66 66 66 82 10/77 10/77 10/77 11/77 10/69* 516 721 54 57 89 92 3/78 7/77 49 62 358 370 21 16,31 51 51 51 21 21 21 17 62 69 87 87 87 63 63 63 60 24 24 13,22 13,24 24 54 22 22 9/68 9/68* 9/68* 2/78* 9/68* 0 Inventories, business, change in-See Inventories. Nonresidential total constant dollars 86 248 Nonresidential total percent of GNP Producers' durable equip., nonresid., constant dot. . . ' 88 89 Residential total constant dollars 249 Residential total percent of GNP Total constant dollars Total current dollars New orders, capital goods, nondefense, constant dollars : New orders, capital goods, nondefense, current dollars Current issue (page numbers) Series number Obligations incurred Defense Department OECD European countries industrial production Orders-See New orders and Unfilled orders. 10/69* Output-See also Gross national product and Industrial production. Goods output, constant dollars ...:.;..;..;...'.' ; . . Labor cost per unit of 10/69* Per hour nonfarm business sector Per hour private business sector ...'.. '. ;.;.'.'.. 10/69 Per hour, private business sector, percent changes Ratio to capacity manufacturing (BEA) Ratio to capacity, manufacturing (FRB) Ratio to capacity materials .......... '. . . . . 9/68 Overtime hours, production workers, manufacturing 370c 83 82 84 21 10/77 9/77 11/68 6/76* 6/76* 6/76* 6/68* 10/72* 10/72* 1/78 1/78 1/78 1/78 12/74 NOTE: The following abbreviations are used in this index: Cl, composite index; Dl, diffusion index; GPDI, gross private domestic investment; and N1PA, nationaal income and product accounts. *The identification number for this series has been changed since the publication date shown. 111 ALPHABETICAL INDEX-SERIES FINDING QUIDE-Continued Slides titlRS (See complete titles in "Tifeand Sources of Stories," f ollowint) this; index) Current issue (page numbers) Series number Charts Tables Historical Series data descriptions (issue date! (issue date) P RiSBfVPS fl"B§ Participation rates, civilian labor force Both stsxcs 1 6-1 9 years of op Fomslos ?0 y63f§ find over Personal Gonsumpticjn « x pen di urns Automobiles Ouratolo (pods constant dollars . . . OuraWfi ipods current dullurs Nondurable qoocfs, constant dollars Nondurable goods current dollars Services constant dollars . . . Ssrvirps current dollars Total Constant dollars Total rurront dollars Total percent of GWP Personal income- -See Income. Personal Stivinti l\!fs()fial sovinf] rote Petroleum and products imports Plant and equipment- -See also Investment, capital. Business oxpendituros for Business oxpenditues for PI Contracts and orders for current dollars Population civilian employment as percent of Priee indexes Consumer prices- -See also International comparisons. All itofns index All items percent changes Pood, index Fowl pprcpflt chantjcs Deflators NIPA Fixed weighted, gross business product, index Fixed weighted, gross business product, pet. changes Implicit prico deflator GNP index Implicit price deflator, GNP, percent changes ... Industrial materials industrial materials comporti'iits Industrial materials DI Labor cost, price per unit of Sensitive prices chaiwin Stock prices-See also International comparisons. 800 common stocks BOO common stocks, Dl . . . Wholesale prices All eornrrtoditiRs index All commodities, percent change Consumer finished goods index Consumer finished goods, percent changes . ... Crude materials, index ... .. . Crude materials, percent changes . . Intermediate materials, index Intermediate materials, percent changes Producer finished ooods index Producer finished goods, percent changes Prico to unit labor cost manufacturing Prices, selling Manufacturing Dl Retail trade 01 Wholesale trade, Dl Prime contracts military . . . . Prime rate charged by banks Producer finished goods-See Wholesale prices. Producers' durable equipment, nonresid,, OPDI Production-See Industrial production and GWP. Productivity Output per hour nonfarm business sector Output per hour private business sector Output per hour, private business sector, pet. changes . Profitability Cl Prof i is Corporate, after taxes, constant dollars Corporate, after taxes, current dollars Corporate, after taxes, with IVA and CCA, constant dollar Corporate, after taxes, with 1 VA and CCA, cur. ctol, . . , Corporate, with IVA and CCA Corporate, with IVA and CCA, pet. of not'l. income . . . Manufacturing and trade 01 . Maniifaeturinfj 01 Per dollar of sales manufacturing Profitability Cl Ratio, profits to corporate domestic income Ratio, profits with IVA and CCA to corporate domestic incomo Proprietors' incomo with IVA and CCA Proprietors' income with IVA and CCA, pet. of nat'l, inc. . .... .... — 34 £6 48 71 66 82 59 54 23 23 64 64 213 41 79 11/77 69 57 58 973 77 59 54 2§ IS, 23 23 39 28 23 23 66 64 64 a/?? 67 64 64 12/76 2/78 8/77 S/77 10/76 2/78 295 298 290 292 293 47 47 47 47 47 81 82 81 81 82 12/77 12/77 12/77 12/77 12/77 92 14,29 68 3/78 19 968 . 78 14,29 38 28 68 74 67 12/77 6/77 2/78 38 27 67 5/77 114 115 35 35 71 72 9/77 9/77 7/64 7/64 16,19 IS 17 3? 13,17 61 60 60 73 60 3/78 4/78 12/77 9/77 1/78 6/69* 6/69* 8/68* 88 88 88 61,88 60 3/78 3/78 3/78 3/78 3/78 1/78 19 19 19 61 61 61 3/78 12/77 3/78 22 22 63 63 tin 107 108 32 32 32 13,22 70 70 63 330 330c 334 334c 331 33k 332 332e 333 333c 92 1 49 49 49 49 49 49 49 49 49 49 14,29 13,17 84 84 85 85 84 84 85 85 85 85 68 88 88 88 3/78 3/78 3/78 55 233 232 238 236 239 237 231 230 235 23 42 42 42 42 42 42 42 42 48 64 79 79 80 80 80 80 79 79 82 10/77 11/77 11/77 11/77 11/77 11/77 11/77 11/77 11/77 11/77 10/69* 292 293 814 47 47 55 81 82 90 12/77 12/77 10/69 7/68* 61 970 20 10 30 25 39 13,24 24 19 66 75 65 65 61 8/77 8/77 3/77 8/77 4/78 320 32Qe 322 322e 50 50,58 50 50 83,93 83,93 83 83 3/77 3/77 3/77 3/77 311 10/69* 10/69* 967 17 32 38 30 14,29 83 83 83 83 68 78 74 69 68 10/77 10/77 10/77 10/77 23 49 49 49 49 29 19 968 14,29 38 68 74 330 330e 334 334e 331 331 c 332 332c 333 333c 17 49 49 49 49 49 49 49 49 49 49 30 84 84 85 85 84 84 85 85 85 85 69 376 978 977 525 109 39 39 39 54 36 75 75 75 89 72 8/77 8/77 8/77 3/78 9/77 88 26 66 10/77 358 370 370c 916 51 51 51 12 87 87 87 59 6/76* 6/76* 6/76* 7/77 Unemployment Duration of unemployment, average 91 Help-wanted advertising to unemployment, ratio 60 5 Initial claims, avg. weekly, unemploy. insurance Initial claims, avg. weekly, unemploy, insurance, D 1 . . . 962 3 Layoff rats manufacturing Number unemployed, civilian labor force Both sexes 16-19 years of age ,. 446 445 Females 20 years and over 447 Full-time workers 11/68 Males 20 years and over 444 Total unemployed 37 11/68* 4 Quit rate, manufacturing 11/68* Unemployment rates 11/68* 44 1 5 weeks and over Insured, average weekly 45 11/73 Total 43 Unfilled orders, manufacturers' 96 Durable goods industries Durable goods industries, change in 25 United Kingdom-See International comparisons. 6/68* 10/72* 10/72* V 18 16 29 29 68 63 10/77 10/77 1/72 7/68 80 79 286 287 972 969 15 916 22 29 29 46 48 39 38 30 12 30 68 68 81 82 75 74 69 59 68 10/77 10/77 12/77 12/77 81 282 283 30 46 48 69 81 82 10/77 11/77 11/77 4 17 60 1/78 46 81 11/77 48 82 12/77 311e 310 310e 284 285 f id/69 S 10/69 Salaries-Sea Compensation. Sales Final sales, constant dollars Machinery and equipment sales and business construction expenditures Manufacturing and trade sales, constant dollars Manufacturing and trade sales, current dollars Manufacturing and trade sales, DI Ratio, inventories to sales, mfg. and trade Retail sales, constant dollars Retail sales current dollars Saving Business saving Government surplus or deficit Gross saving private and rjovernment Personal saving Personal saving rate Selling prices-See Prices, selling. Sensitive prices, change in State and local government-See Government. Stock prices~S0fl also International comparisons. 500 common stocks SCO common stocks, D I Stocks of materials and supplies on hand and on order . . Stocks of materials and supplies on hand and on order, chaniji , . . Surplus-Sea Government. 10/69 10/69 10/69 10/69* 6/77 11/68 11/68* 9/68' 5/69* 5/69* 5/69* 5/69* 1/78 4/69 4/78 9/77 3/78 4/69* 11/68 12/77 5/69 6/77 5/69* 3/77 3/77 3/77 3/77 3/77 3/77 3/77 3/77 3/77 3/77 9/77 6/69* 8/77 5/77 1/78 7/77 10/77 id/69 10/69* 11/68* n 6/77 11/72 10/77 11/77 10/69* 10/76 2/78 6/7*2* 9/68* 2/69 11/68* 6/72* i6/69 10/69 10/69 7/68* 5/69 5/69* T Treasury bill rate Treasury bond yields U Velocity of money GNP to money supply Ml, ratio Personal income to money supply M2, ratio Vendor performance .... 52 52 §2 52 19,52 17 as 5/77 4/72* 4/72 6/69 4/72 9/68 9/68 10/77 9/77 1/78 12/74 W Wages and salaries-See Compensation. 3/69" West Germany-See International comparisons. Wholesale prices All eomnnoditifis index 7/68* All commodities percent changes Consumer finished goods, index Consumer finished goods, percent changes i6/69 Crude materials index 10/69* Crude materials, percent changes Intermediate materials index Intermediate materials percent changes Producer finished goods, index Producer finished goods percent changes Sensitive prices change in Workweek of production workers, manufacturing 10/69 Workweek of production workers, manufacturing, components 10/69* Workweek of production workers, manufacturing, Dl . , , . 961 NOTE: The following abbreviations are used in this index: Cl, composite index; D I, diffusion index; GPOl, gross private domestic investment; and NIPA, national income and product accounts. *T1m identification number for this series has been changed since the publication date shown. 112 Tables Historical Series dato descriptions {issue date (issue date) 93 39 249 52 52 52 R Rental income of persons with CCA .... Rental income of persons, with CCA, percent of notional incomo Charts • Residential fixed investment, constant dollars, GPOl Residential fixed investment percent of GNP Residential structures-See Housing. Retail sales, constant dollars Retail sales current dollars .. Current issue (page numbers) Series number 403 452 451 Q Quit rate, manufacturing Series titles (See complete titles in "Titles and Sources of Series," following this index) 37 go 3/77 3/77 3/77 3/77 3/77 3/77 3/77 3/77 3/77 3/77 3/78 1/78 76 73 2/78* 6/69* 8/68* TITLES AND SOURCES OF SERIES Series are listed below according to the sections of this report in which they appear. Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect relationships or order among the series. "M" following a series title indicates monthly data; "Q" indicates quarterly data. Data apply to the whole period except when indicated by "EOM" (end of month) or "EOQ" (end of quarter). 5. Average weekly initial claims for unemployment insurance, State programs (M).—U.S. Department of Labor, Employment Training Administration; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic Analysis (17,60) To save space, the commonly used sources listed below are referred to by number: 7. Value of manufacturers' new orders, durable goods industries, in 1972 dollars (M).-Sources 1, 2, and 3 (22,63) Source 1—U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis; Source 2—U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census; Source 3—U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics; Source 4—Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. Following the source for each series is an indication of the pages on which that series appears. The "Series Finding Guide" also lists chart and table page numbers for each series. I-A. Composite Indexes 910. Composite index of twelve leading indicators (includes series 1, 3, 8, 12, 19, 20, 29, 32, 36, 92, 104, 105) (M).-Source 1 (11,40,59) 913. Composite index of marginal employment adjustments (includes series 1, 2, 3, 5) (M).-Source 1 (12,59) 914. Composite index of capital investment commitments (includes series 12, 20, 29) (M).-Source 1 (12,59) 915. Composite index of inventory investment and purchasing (includes series 8, 32, 36, 92) (M).-Source 1 (12,59) 916. Composite index of profitability (includes series 17,19, 80) (M).-Source 1 (12,59) 917. Composite index of money and financial flows (includes series 104, 105, 110) (M).-Source 1 (12,59) 920. Composite index of four roughly coincident indicators (includes series 41, 47, 51, 57) (M).-Source 1 (11,40,59) 930. Composite index of six lagging indicators (includes series 62, 70, 72, 91, 95, 109) (M).-Source 1 (1140,59) 940. Ratio, coincident composite index (series 920) to lagging composite index (series 930) (M).—Source 1(12,59) 6. Value of manufacturers' new orders, durable goods industries, in current dollars (M).-Source 2 (22,63,76) 8. Value of manufacturers' new orders for consumer goods and materials in 1972 dollars (M).—Sources 1, 2, and 3 (13,22,63) 9. Construction contracts awarded for commercial and industrial buildings, floor space (M).-McGraw-Hill Information Systems Company; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic Analysis and National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. (Used by permission. This series may not be reproduced without written permission from the source.). (24,65) 10. Contracts and orders for plant and equipment in current dollars (M).-Source 2 and McGraw-Hill Information Systems Company; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census and Bureau of Economic Analysis (24,65) 11. Newly approved capital appropriations, 1,000 manufacturing corporations (Q).-The Conference Board. (Used by permission. This series may not be reproduced without written permission from the source.) (25,65) 12. Index of net business formation (M).-Source 1; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic Analysis and National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. (13,24,64) 13. Number of new business incorporations (M).—Dun & Bradstreet, Inc.; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic Analysis and National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. (24,64) 1. Average workweek of production workers, manufacturing (M).-Source 3 (13,17,60,76) 2. Accession rate, manufacturing (M).—Source 3 (17,60) (17,60) 24. Value of manufacturers' new orders, capital goods industries, nondefense, in current dollars (M),-Source 2 (24,65) 25. Change in manufacturers' unfilled orders, durable goods industries (M).-Source 2 (22,63) 27. Value of manufacturers' new orders, capital goods industries, nondefense, in 1972 dollars (M).- Sources 1, 2 t and 3 (24,65) 28. New private housing units started, total (M).—Source 2 (26,66) 29. Index of new private housing units authorized by local building permits (M).-Source 2 (14,26,66) 30. Gross private domestic investment, change in business inventories, all industries, in 1972 dollars (Q).—Source 1 (27,43,67,80) 31. Change in book value of manufacturing and trade inventories, total (M).-Sources 1 and 2 (27,67) 32. Vendor performance, percent of companies reporting slower deliveries (M),-Purchasing Management Association of Chicago (13,22,63) 33. Net change in mortgage debt held by financial institutions and life insurance companies (M).—American Council of Life Insurance; Federal National Mortgage Association; U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development, Government National Mortgage Association; National Association of Mutual Savings Banks; U.S. Savings and Loan League; and source 4; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic Analysis (33,70) 34. Net cash flow, corporate, in current dollars (Q).— Source 1 (30,69) 15. Profits (after taxes) per dollar of sales, all manufacturing corporations (Q).—Federal Trade Commission and Securities and Exchange Commission; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic Analysis (30,69) 35. Net cash flow, corporate, in 1972 dollars (Q).- Source 1 (30,69) 16. Corporate profits after taxes in current dollars (Q).— Source 1 (29,68) 17. Index of price per unit of labor cost, manufacturingratio, index of wholesale prices of manufactured goods (unadjusted) to seasonally adjusted index of compensation of employees in manufacturing (sum of wages, salaries, and supplements to wages and salaries) per unit of output (M).-Sources 1, 3, and 4 (30,69) 19. Index of stock prices, 500 common stocks (M).Standard & Poor's Corporation (14,29,58,68,94) 20. Contracts and orders for plant and equipment in 1972 dollars (M).—Sources 1, 2, 3, and McGraw-Hill Information Systems Company (13,24,65) 3. Layoff rate, manufacturing (M).-Source 3 (13,17,60) 4. Quit rate, manufacturing (M).-Source 3 23. Index of industrial materials prices (M), Source 3 (29,68,78) 14. Current liabilities of business failures (M).-Dun & Bradstreet, Inc. (34,71) 18. Corporate profits after taxes in 1972 dollars (Q).Source 1 (29,68) I-B. Cyclical Indicators 22. Ratio of profits (after taxes) to total corporate domestic income (Q).-Source 1 (30,68) 21. Average weekly overtime hours of production workers, manufacturing (M).-Source 3 (17,60) 36. Net change in inventories on hand and on order in 1972 dollars (smoothed) (M).-Sources 1, 2, and 3(14,27,67) 37. Number of persons unemployed, labor force survey (M).-Sources 2 and 3 (19,52,61,88) 38. Change in stocks of materials and supplies on hand and on order, manufacturing (M).—Source 2 (27,67) 39. Percent of consumer installment loans delinquent 30 days and over (EOM).—American Bankers Association (34,71) 40. Number of employees in nonagricultural goodsproducing industries—mining, manufacturing, and construction (M).-Source 3 (18,61) 41. Number of employees on nonagricultural payrolls, establishment survey (M).-Source 3 (15,18,61) 42. Number of persons engaged in nonagricultural activities, labor force survey (M).—Sources 2 and 3 (18,61) 43. Unemployment rate, total (M).-Sources 2 and 3(19,61) 113 TITLES AND SOURCES OF SERIES- Continued 44. Unemployment rate, 15 weeks and over (M).-Sources 2 and 3 (19,61) 45. Average weekly insured unemployment rate, State programs (M).—U.S. Department of Labor, Employment Training Administration (19,61) 46. Index of help-wanted advertising in newspapers (M) The Conference Board (18,60) 47. Index of industrial production, total (M). Source 4 (15,21,40,57,62,77,92) 48. Employee-hours (M).-Souree 3 in nonagriculturat establishments (18,40,60) 49. Value of goods output in 1972 dollars (Q)-Source 1 (21,62) 50. Gross national product in 1972 dollars (QV Source 1 (20,40,41,62,79) 51. Personal income, less transfer payments, in 1972 dollars (M).-Souree 1 (15,20,40,62) 52. Personal income, total, in 1972 dollars (M), Source 1 (20,62) 53. Wage and salary income in mining, manufacturing, and construction in 1972 dollars (M).—Sources 1 and 66. Consumer installment debt (EOM).-Source 4; FRB seasonally adjusted net change added to seasonally adjusted figure for previous month to obtain current figure (36,72) 67. Bank rates on short-term business loans Source 4 (Q).(36,72) 68. Labor cost (current dollars) per unit of gross domestic product (1972 dollars), nonfinancial corporations—ratio of current-dollar compensation of employees to real gross corporate product (Q).—Source 1 (31,69) 69. Manufacturers' machinery and equipment sales and business construction expenditures (industrial and commercial construction put in place) (M).-Source 2 (25,66) 70. Manufacturing and trade inventories, total book value, in 1972 dollars (EOM).-Sources 1, 2, and 3(16,28,67) 71. Manufacturing and trade inventories, total book value, in current dollars (EOM).-Sources 1 and 2 (28,67) 72. Commercial and industrial loans outstanding, weekly reporting large commercial banks (M).—Source 4; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic Analysis (16,36,72) 87. Gross private domestic fixed investment, nonresidential structures, in 1972 dollars (Q).^Source 1 (26,66) 88. Gross private domestic fixed investment, nonresidential producers' durable equipment, in 1972 dollars (Q). Source 1 (26,66) 89. Gross private domestic fixed investment, total residential, in 1972 dollars (Q).-Source 1 (26,66) 90. Ratio, civilian employment to total population of working age (M).-Sources 1, 2, and 3 (19,61) 91. Average (mean) duration of unemployment in weeks (M).-Sources 2 and 3 (16,19,61) 92. Change in sensitive prices (WPI of crude materials excluding foods, feeds, and fibers) (smoothed) (M), Sources 1 and 3 (14,29,68) 93. Free reserves (member banks excess reserves minus borrowings) {M).-Source 4 (34,71) 94. Member bank borrowings from the Federal Reserve (M).-Source 4 (34,71) 95. Ratio, consumer installment debt to personal income (EOM),-Sources 1 and 4 (16,36,72) 73. Index of industrial production, durable manufactures (M).-Source 4 (21,62) 96. Manufacturers' unfilled orders, durable goods industries (EOM).-Source 2 (22,63) (23,64) 74. Index of industrial production, nondurable manufactures (M).-Source 4 (21,62) 55. Personal consumption expenditures, automobiles (Q). Source 1 (23,64) 75. Index of industrial production, consumer goods (M).Source 4 (23,64) 97. Backlog of capital appropriations, manufacturing (EOQ).—The Conference Board. (Used by permission. This series may not be reproduced without written per mission from the source.) (25,65) 56. Manufacturing and trade sales in current dollars (M). Sources 1 and 2 (23,64) 76. Index of industrial production, business equipment (M).-Source 4 (25,66) 57. Manufacturing and trade sales in 1972 dollars (M).Sources 1, 2, and 3 (15,23,64) 77. Ratio, constant-dollar inventories (series 70) to sales (series 57), manufacturing and trade, total (EOM). Sources 1, 2, and 3 (28,67) 3 (20,62) 54. Sales of retail stores in current dollars (M). Source 2 58. Index of consumer sentiment (Q). University of Michigan, Survey Research Center (23,64) 59. Sales of retail stores in 1972 dollars (M).- Sources 1 and 3 (23,64) 60. Ratio, help-wanted advertising in newspapers (series 46) to number of persons unemployed (series 37) (M).-Sources 1, 2, 3, and The Conference Board (18,60) 61. Business expenditures for new plant and equipment, total (Q).-Source 1 (25,66) 62. Index of labor cost per unit of output, total manufacturing—ratio, index of compensation of employees in manufacturing (sum of wages, salaries, and supplements to wages and salaries) to index of industrial production, manufacturing (M),—Sources 1 and 4 (16,31,69) 63. Index of unit labor cost, private business sector (Q). Source 3 (31,69) 64. Compensation of employees as a percent of national income (Q).-Source 1 (31,48,69,82) 65. Manufacturers' inventories of finished goods, book value, all manufacturing industries (EOM). Source 2 (28,67) 114 78. Stocks of materials and supplies on hand and on order, manufacturing (EOM).-Source 2 (28,67) 79. Corporate profits after taxes with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments in current dollars (Q).-Source 1 (29,68) 80. Corporate profits after taxes with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments in 1972 dollars (Q).-Source 1 (29,68) 81. Ratio of profits (after taxes) with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments to total corporate domestic income (Q).-Source 1 (30,69) 82. Rate of capacity utilization, manufacturing (Q).-Source 4 (21,63) 102. Change in money supply M2 (demand deposits and currency plus time deposits at commercial banks other than large CD's) (M).-Source 4 (32,70) 104. Change in total liquid assets (smoothed) (M). Sources 1 and 4 (14,32,70) 105. Money supply Ml (demand deposits plus currency) in 1972 dollars (M).-Sources 1, 3, and 4 (14,32,70) 106. Money supply M2 (demand deposits and currency plus time deposits at commercial banks other than large CD's) in 1972 dollars (M).-Sources 1,3, and 4(32,70) 107. Ratio,gross national product to money supply Ml (Q). Sources 1 and 4 (32,70) 108. Ratio, personal income to money supply M2 (M). Sources 1 and 4 (32,70) 109. Average prime rate charged by banks (M).-Source 4 (36,72) 110. Total funds raised by private nonfinancial borrowers in credit markets (Q).-Source 4 (33,71) 83. Rate of capacity utilization, manufacturing (EOQ).Source 1 (21,63) 112. Net change in bank loans to businesses (M), Source 4; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic Analysis (33,71) 84. Rate of capacity utilization, materials (Q)-Source 4 (21,63) 113. Net change in consumer installment debt (M), Source 4 (33,71) 85. Change in money supply Ml (demand deposits plus currency) (M).-Source 4 (32,70) 114. Discount rate on new issues of 91-day Treasury bills (M).-Source 4 (35,71) 86. Gross private domestic fixed investment, total nonresidential, in 1972 dollars (Q).-Source 1 (26,66) 115. Yield on long-term Treasury bonds (M). - U.S. Department of the Treasury (35,72) TITLES AND SOURCES OF SERIES- Continued 116. Yield on new issues of high-grade corporate bonds (M).-Citibank and U.S. Department of the Treasury (35,72) 117. Yield on municipal bonds, 20-bond average (M).-The Bond Buyer (35,72) 118. Secondary market yields on FHA mortgages (M).-U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development, Federal Housing Administration (35,72) 119. Federal funds rate (M).-Source 4 227. Per capita disposable personal income in 1972 dollars (Q).-Sources 1 and 2 (41,79) 973. Diffusion index of net sales, manufacturing and tradeabout 1400 businessmen reporting (Q).—Dun & Bradstreet, Inc. (Used by permission. This series may not be reproduced without written permission from the source.) (39,75) 231. Personal consumption expenditures, total, in 1972 dollars (Q).-Source 1 (42,79) (35,71) I-C. Diffusion Indexes 950. Diffusion index of twelve leading indicator components (M).-Source 1 (37,73) 951. Diffusion index of four roughly coincident indicator components (M).-Source 1 (37,73) 952. Diffusion index of six lagging indicator components (M).-Source 1 (37,73) 961. Diffusion index of average workweek of production workers, manufacturing—21 industries (M).—Sources 1 and 3 (37,73,76) 962. Diffusion index of initial claims for unemployment insurance, State programs—51 areas (M).—Source 1 and U.S. Department of Labor, Employment Training Administration; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic Analysis (37,73) 963. Diffusion index of number of employees on private nonagricultural payrolls-172 industries (M).-Source 3 (37,73) 964. Diffusion index of value of manufacturers' new orders, durable goods industries—35 industries (M).—Sources 1 and 2 (38,74,76) 965. Diffusion index of newly approved capital appropriations, deflated-17 industries (Q).-The Conference Board. (Used by permission. This series may not be reproduced without written permission from the source.) (38,74) 966. Diffusion index of industrial production-24 industries (M).-Sources 1 and 4 (38,74,77) 967. Diffusion index of industrial materials prices—13 industrial materials (M).-Sources 1 and 3 (38,74,78) 968. Diffusion index of stock prices, 500 common stocks— 62-82 industries (M).-Standard & Poor's Corporation (38,74) 969. Diffusion index of profits, manufacturing-about 1,000 corporations (Q).—Citibank; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic Analysis and National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. (38,74) 970. Diffusion index of business expenditures for new plant and equipment, total—18 industries (Q).—Source 1 (39,75) 971. Diffusion index of new orders, manufacturing—about 700 businessmen reporting (Q).—Dun & Bradstreet, Inc. (Used by permission. This series may not be reproduced without written permission from the source.) (39,75) 972. Diffusion index of net profits, manufacturing and trade—about 1400 businessmen reporting (Q).-Dun & Bradstreet, Inc. (Used by permission. This series may not be reproduced without written permission from the source.) (39,75) 974. Diffusion index of number of employees, manufacturing and trade—about 1400 businessmen reporting (Q),— Dun & Bradstreet, Inc. (Used by permission. This series may not be reproduced without written permission from the source.) (39,75) 230. Personal consumption expenditures, total, in current dollars (Q).-Source 1 (42,79) 232. Personal consumption expenditures, durable goods, in current dollars (Q).-Source 1 (42,79) 233. Personal consumption expenditures, durable goods, in 1972 dollars (Q).-Source 1 (42,79) 235. Personal consumption expenditures, total, as a percent of gross national product (Q).-Source 1 (48,82) 975. Diffusion index of level of inventories, manufacturing and trade—about 1400 businessmen reporting (Q).-- • Dun & Bradstreet, Inc. (Used by permission. This series may not be reproduced without written permission from the source.) (39,75) 236. Personal consumption expenditures, nondurable goods, in current dollars (Q).-Source 1 (42,80) 976. Diffusion index of selling prices, manufacturing—about 700 businessmen reporting (Q).—Dun & Bradstreet, Inc. (Used by permission. This series may not be reproduced without written permission from the source.) (39,75) 238. Personal consumption expenditures, nondurable goods, in 1972 dollars (Q).-Source 1 (42,80) 977. Diffusion index of selling prices, wholesale trade—about 450 businessmen reporting (Q).—Dun & Bradstreet, Inc. (Used by permission. This series may not be reproduced without written permission from the source.) (39,75) 978. Diffusion index of selling prices, retail trade—about 250 businessmen reporting (Q).—Dun & Bradstreet, Inc. (Used by permission. This series may not be reproduced without written permission from the source.) (39,75) 237. Personal consumption expenditures, services, in current dollars (Q).-Source 1 (42,80) 239. Personal consumption expenditures, services, in 1972 dollars (Q).-Source 1 (42,80) 240. Gross private domestic investment, total, in current dollars (Q).-Source 1 (43,80) 241. Gross private domestic investment, total, in 1972 dollars (Q).-Source 1 (43,80) 242. Gross private domestic fixed investment, total, in current dollars (Q).-Source 1 (43,80) 243. Gross private domestic fixed investment, total, in 1972 dollars (Q).-Source 1 (43,80) 11-A. National Income and Product 30. Gross private domestic investment, change in business inventories, all industries, in 1972 dollars (Q).-Source 1 (27,43,67,80) 245. Gross private domestic investment, change in business inventories, all industries, in current dollars (Q), Source I (43,80) 50. Gross national product in 1972 dollars (Q).-Source i (20,40,41,62,79) 247. Gross private domestic investment, change in business inventories, all industries, as a percent of gross national product (Q).-Source 1 (48,82) 64. Compensation of employees as a percent of national income (Q).-Source 1 (31,48,69,82) 200. Gross national product in current dollars (Q).-Source 1 (41,79) 213. Final sales (series 50 minus series 30) in 1972 dollars (Q).-Source 1 (41,79) 217. Per capita gross national product in 1972 dollars (Q).Sources 1 and 2 (41,79) 220. National income 1 in current dollars (Q).—Source (46,81) 223. Personal income in current dollars (M).—Source 1 (41,62) 224. Disposable personal income in current dollars (Q).— Source 1 (41,79) 225. Disposable personal income in 1972 dollars (Q).— Source 1 (41,79) 248. Gross private domestic fixed investment, nonresidential, as a percent of gross national product (Q).—Source 1 (48,82) 249. Gross private domestic fixed investment, residential, as a percent of gross national product (Q).—Source 1 (48,82) 250. Net exports of goods and services in current dollars; national income and product accounts (Q).—Source 1 (45,81) 251. Net exports of goods and services as a percent of gross national product (Q).-Source 1 (48,82) 252. Exports of goods and services in current dollars; national income and product accounts (Q).—Source 1 (45,81) 253. Imports of goods and services in current dollars; national income and product accounts (Q).—Source 1 (45,81) 115 TITLES AND SOURCES OF SERIES- Continued 255, Net exports of goods and services in 1972 dollars; national income and product accounts (Q).-Source 1 (45,81) 256, Exports of goods and services in 1972 dollars; national income and product accounts (Q).-Source 1 (45,81) 295. Business saving—undistributed corporate profits plus capital consumption allowances with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments (Q).—Source 1 (47,81) 298. Government surplus or deficit, total (Q).-Source 1 (47,82) 257, Imports of goods and services in 1972 dollars; national income and product accounts (Q).-Source 1 (45,81) 262. Federal Government purchases of goods and services in current dollars (Q).--Source 1 (44,80) 263. Federal Government purchases of goods and services in 1972 dollars (Q).-Souree 1 (44,80) 444. Number unemployed, males 20 years and over, labor force survey (M).-Sources 2 and 3 (52,88) 310. Implicit price deflator, gross national product (Q). Source 1 (49,83) 445. Number unemployed, females 20 years and over, labor force survey (M).-Sources 2 and 3 (52,88) 311. Fixed weighted price index, gross business product (Q).-Source 1 (49,83) 446. Number unemployed, both sexes 16-19 years of age, labor force survey (M).-Sources 2 and 3 (52,88) 320. Index of consumer prices, all items (M).—Source 3 (50,58,83,93) 447. Number unemployed, full-time workers, labor force survey (M).-Sources 2 and 3 (52,88) 448. Number employed, part-time workers for economic reasons, labor force survey (M),—Sources 2 and 3 (52,88) 322. Index of consumer prices, food (M).-Source 3(50,83) 266, State and local government purchases of goods and services in current dollars (Q), Source 1 (44,80) 330. Index of wholesale prices, all commodities (M). Source 3 (49,84) 268. State and local government purchases of goods and services as a percent of gross national product (Q).— Source 1 (48,82) 280. Compensation of employees (Q).- Source 1 (46,81) 282. Proprietors' income with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments (Q).—Source 1 (46,81) 283. Proprietors' income with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments as a percent of national income (Q).-Source 1 (48,82) 284. Rental income of persons with capital consumption adjustment (Q).-Source 1 (46,81) 285. Rental income of persons with capital consumption adjustment as a percent of national income (Q).—Source 1 (48,82) 286. Corporate profits with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments (Q).—Source 1 (46,81) 287. Corporate profits with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments as a percent of national income (Q).-Souree 1 (48,82) 288. Net interest (Q).-Source 1 (46,81) 441. Total civilian labor force , labor force survey (M).Sources 2 and 3 (52,88) II-B. Prices, Wages, and Productivity 265. Federal Government purchases of goods and services as a percent of gross national product (Q), Source 1 (48,82) 267, State and local government purchases of goods and services in 1972 dollars (Q).-Source 1 (44,80) 37, Number of persons unemployed, labor force survey (M).~Sources 2 and 3 (19,52,61,88) 442. Total civilian employment, labor force survey (M). Sources 2 and 3 (52,88) 260. Government purchases of goods and services, total, in current dollars (Q).-Souree 1 (44,80) 261. Government purchases of goods and services, total, in 1972 dollars (Q).-Source 1 (44,80) II-C. Labor Force, Employment, and Unemployment 331. Index of wholesale prices, crude materials for further processing (M).-Source 3 (49,84) 332. Index of wholesale prices, intermediate materials, supplies, and components (M).-Source 3 (49,85) 333. Index of wholesale prices, producer finished goods (M).-Source 3 (49,85) 334. Index of wholesale prices, consumer finished goods (M).-Source 3 (49,85) 335. Index of wholesale prices, industrial commodities (M).-Source 3 (49,84) 340. Index of average hourly earnings of production workers, private nonfarm economy—adjusted for overtime (in manufacturing only), interindustry employment shifts, and seasonally (M).-Source 3 (50,86) 451. Civilian labor force participation rate, males 20 years and over (M).-Sourees 2 and 3 (52,88) 452. Civilian labor force participation rate, females 20 years and over (M).-Sources 2 and 3 (52,88) 453. Civilian labor force participation rate, both sexet 16-19 years of age (M).-Sources 2 and 3 (52,88) II-D. Government Activities 500. Federal Government surplus or deficit; national income and product accounts (Q).-Source 1 (53,89) 501. Federal Government receipts; national income and product accounts (Q).-Source 1 (53,89) 502. Federal Government expenditures; national income and product accounts (Q).-Souree 1 (53,89) 510. State and local government surplus or deficit; national income and product accounts (Q).—Source 1 (53,89) 341. Index of real average hourly earnings of production workers, private nonfarm economy—adjusted for overtime (in manufacturing only), interindustry employment shifts, and seasonality (M).-Source 3 (50,86) 511. State and local government receipts; national income and product accounts (Q).—Source 1 (53,89) 345. Index of average hourly compensation, all employees, nonfarm business sector (Q).—Source 3 (50,86) 512. State and local government expenditures; national income and product accounts (Q).-Source 1 (53,89) 346. Index of real average hourly compensation, all employees, nonfarm business sector (Q).—Source 3 (50,87) 516. Defense Department obligations incurred, total, excluding military assistance (Q),—U.S. Department of Defense, OSD, Comptroller, Directorate for Program Financial Control; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic Analysis (54,89) 348. Negotiated wage and benefit decisions, all industriesfirst year average (mean) changes (Q).—Source 3 (51,87) 349. Negotiated wage and benefit decisions, all industriesaverage (mean) changes over life of contract (Q).— Source 3 (51,87) 525. Military prime contract awards to U.S. business firms and institutions (M). U.S Department of Defense, OSD, Comptroller, Directorate for Management Information Operation and Control; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic Analysts (54,89) (47,81) 358. Index of output per hour, all persons, nonfarm business sector (Q).-Source 3 (50,87) 548. Value of manufacturers' new orders, defense products (M).-Source 2 (54,89) 293. Personal saving rate—personal saving as a percent of disposable personal income (Q).-Source 1 (47,82) 370. Index of output per hour, all persons, private business sector (Q).-Source 3 (50,87) 564. Federal Government purchases of goods and services for national defense (Q).-Source 1 (54,89) 289. Net interest as a percent of national income (Q), Source 1 (48,82) 290. Gross saving—private saving plus government surplus or deficit (Q).-Souree 1 (47,81) 292. Personal saving (Q).-Souree 1 116 TITLES AND SOURCES OF SERIES- Continued II-E. U.S. International Transactions II-F. International Comparisons 602. Exports, excluding military aid shipments, total (M).— Source 2 (55,90) 19. United States, index of stock prices, 500 common stocks (M).-Standard & Poor's Corporation (14,29,58,68,94) 604. Exports of agricultural products (M).-Source 2; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic Analysis (55,90) 47. United States, index of industrial production, total (M).-Source 4 (15,21,40,57,62,77,92) 606. Exports of nonelectrical machinery (M).-Source 2; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic Analysis (55 r 90) 612. General imports, total (M).-Source 2 (55,90) 614. Imports of petroleum and petroleum products (M).— Source 2; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic Analysis (55,90) 616. Imports of automobiles and parts (M).-Source 2; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic Analysis (55,90) 618. Merchandise exports, adjusted, excluding military grants (Q).-Source 1 320. United States, index of consumer prices, all items (M).-Source 3 (49,58,83,93) 721. Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, European countries, index of industrial production (M).—Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (Paris) (57,92) 722. United Kingdom, index of industrial production (M).— Central Statistical Office (London) (57,92) 723. Canada, index of industrial production (M).—Statistics Canada (Ottawa) . (57,92) (56,91) 620. Merchandise imports, adjusted, excluding military (Q).-Source 1 (56,91) 725. West Germany, index of industrial production (M).Federal Statistical Office (Wiesbaden); seasonal adjustment by OECD (57,92) 622. Balance on merchandise trade (Q).—Source 1 (56,91) 651. Income on U.S. investments abroad (Q).-Source 1 (56,91) 652. Income on foreign investments in the United States (Q).-Source 1 726. France, index of industrial production (M).—Institut National de la Statistique et des Etudes Economiques (Paris) (57,92) (56,91) 667. Balance on goods and services (Q).—Source 1(56,91) 727. Italy, index of industrial production (M),—Institute Centrale di Statistica (Rome) . (57,92) 733. Canada, index of consumer prices (M).—Statistics Canada (Ottawa); percent changes seasonally adjusted by Bureau of Economic Analysis (58,94) 735. West Germany, index of consumer prices (M).-Federal Statistical Office (Wiesbaden); percent changes seasonally adjusted by Bureau of Economic Analysis (58,93) 736. France, index of consumer prices (M).-lnstitut National de la Statistique et des Etudes Economiques (Paris); percent changes seasonally adjusted by Bureau of Economic Analysis (58,93) 737. Italy, index of consumer prices (M).—Institute Centrale di Statistica (Rome); percent changes seasonally adjusted by Bureau of Economic Analysis (58,94) 738. Japan, index of consumer prices (M).—Office of the Prime Minister (Tokyo); percent changes seasonally adjusted by Bureau of Economic Analysis (58,93) 742. United Kingdom, index of stock prices (M).—The Financial Times (London) (58,94) 743. Canada, index of stock prices (M).-Statistics Canada (Ottawa) (58,94) 745. West Germany, index of stock prices (M).—Federal Statistical Office (Wiesbaden) (58,94) 746. France, index of stock prices (M).—Institut National de la Statistique et des Etudes Economiques (Paris)(58,94) 747. Italy, index of stock prices (M).-Banca d'ltalia (Rome) (58,94) 668. Exports of goods and services, excluding transfers under U.S. military grants (Q).-Source 1 (56,91) 669. Imports of goods and services, total (Q).-Source 1 (56,91) 732. United Kingdom, index of consumer prices (M).— Ministry of Labour (London); percent changes seasonally adjusted by Bureau of Economic Analysis (58,93) 728. Japan, index of industrial production (M).—Ministry of International Trade and Industry (Tokyo) (57,92) 748. Japan, index of stock prices (M).-Tokyo Stock Exchange (Tokyo) (58,94) Superintendent of Documents U.S. Government Printing Office Washington, O.C. 20402 OFFICIAL BUSINESS Penalty for Private Use $300 FIRST-CLASS MAIL POSTAGE & FEES PAID USDC WASHINGTON, D.C, PERMIT No. G-56