Full text of Business Conditions Digest : May 1968
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bed
DEVELOPMENTS
B. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE
May 1968
DATA THROUGH APRIL
BUREAU OF THE CENSUS
This report was prepared in the Statistical
Analysis Division under the direction of
Julius Shiskin, Chief, Technical staff and
their responsibilities for the publication are Feliks Tamm—Technical supervision and
review,
Barry A. Beckman—Specifications for
computer processing,
Gerald F, Donahoe—New projects,
Morton Somer—Selection of seasonal
adjustment methods,
Betty F, Tunstall—Collection and compilation of basic data,
Editorial supervision is provided by Geraldine
Censky of the Administrative and Publications
Services Division.
The cooperation of various government and
private agencies which provide data is gratefully acknowledged. The agencies furnishing
data are indicated in the list of series and
sources on the back cover of this report,
U.S. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE
C. R. Smith, Secretary
William H. Chartener, Assistant Secretary for Economic Affairs
BUREAU OFTHE CENSUS
A. Ross Eckler, Director
Robert F. Drury, Deputy Director
JULIUS SHISKIN, Chief Economic Statistician
Subscription price is $7 a year ($1.75 additional for foreign mailing). Single issues are
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Documents. Send to U.S. Government Printing
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Department of Commerce Field Office,
ABOUT THE COVER-Series in this publication
are grouped according to their usual timing
and shown against the background of contractions and expansions in general business
activity. The center panel illustrates this
concept, The vertical bar represents a contraction; the top curve, the Leading Series which
usually fall before a contraction has begun and
rise before it has ended; the middle curve, the
Coincident Series which usually fall with the
contraction period; the bottom curve, the
Lagging Series which fall after a contraction
has begun and rise after it ends. Series are also
classified by economic process within each
timing group. Processes are indicated in the
squares bordering the panel.
U.S. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE
PREFACE This report brings together many of the; available economic
indicators in convenient form for analysis and interpretation. The presentation
and classification of series follow the business indicators approach. The list
of indicators and their classification into "leading," "roughly coincident,"
and "lagging" groups are those designated by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), a private, nonprofit research organization which
has been preparing lists of business cycle indicators for more than 40 years.
The business cycle turrfing dates are also those designated by NBER. In
addition, all series within each timing group are classified under eight
economic processes (e.g., employment and unemployment; production, income, consumption, and trade; fixed capital investment; etc.). Some special
series included in the list (such as labor costs in manufacturing and the total
of machinery and equipment sales and business construction) have been
constructed by the NBER for purposes of business cycle analysis.
The utilization of the National Bureau list of indicators and their
cyclical turning dates is not to be taken as implying acceptance or endorsement by the Bureau of the Census or any other government agency of any
approach to business cycle analysis, nor of the special series compiled
by the National Bureau to facilitate cyclical studies. This report is intended
only to supplement other Department of Commerce reports that provide
information so arranged as to facilitate the analysis of current business
conditions.
The unique features of BCD are the arrangement of data according
to their usual timing relations during the course of the business cycle, the
cross-classification by timing and economic process, and the inclusion of
special analytical measures and historical cyclical comparisons that help in
evaluating the current state of the business cycle. In addition, the movements of the series are shown against the background of the expansions and
contractions of the general business cycle so that "leads" and "lags" can be
readily detected and unusual cyclical developments spotted.
About 115 principal series and over 300 components are used in preparing BCD. (This figure includes 19 foreign series in addition to 95 U.S.
series.) Almost all of the basic data have been published by the source agency.
A complete list of series titles and the sources of dafta is shown on the back
cover of this report.
BUSINESS CYCLE
May 1968
DATA THROUGH APRIL
DEVELOPING—
CONTENT!
New Features and Changes for This Issue
3 Census Projects on Economic Fluctuations
Cross-Classification of Business Indicators by Economic
Process and Cyclical Timing
iii
iv
v
Descriptions and
Intr§duction
i
Background
1
Timing Classification.
Economic Process Classification
Short List of Indicators
Method of Presentation
Concepts and Procedures
References
i
How to Read Charts.^
„
„
_,
1
1
1
2
2
2
2
3
4
Section One—Basic
Table 1.
Chart 1A.
Chart IB,
Table 2A.
Table 2B.
Changes Over 4 Latest Months
Business Cycle Series From 1948 to Present
Series for International Comparisons From 1948 to Present
Latest Data for Business Cycle Series
Latest Data for International Comparisons
6
9
30
33
46
Section Two—Analytical
Chart 2.
Table 3.
Table 4.
Diffusion Indexes From 1948 to Present
Latest Data for Diffusion Indexes
Selected Diffusion Indexes and Components
.
51
54
58
For Index—Series Finding Guide, see last pages of issue.
CONTENTS
Continued
Appendixes
Appendix A. Business Cycle Expansions and Contractions in the United
States: 1854 to 1961 „ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ - _ _ . „ „ . , _ . „ „ . _ „ . . . . .
Appendix B. Specific Trough and Peak Dates for Selected Business
Indicators
_ _ _ _ _ „ » * _ , _ _ „ „ _ _ _ _ „ _ , _ „ , = , ^ „ _ .,,..-,, ,
Appendix C. Average Changes and Related Measures for Business Cycle
Series „ _ „ _ „ _ _ _ _-,-.__„„„_„„._„„_„„,...,,„„,.,.,„
Appendix D. Current Adjustment Factors for Business Cycle Series .,,.,,..,,, „
Appendix E, Percent Change for Selected Series Over Contraction and
Expansion Periods of Business Cycles: 1920 to 1961 .- .
Appendix F. Historical Data for Selected Series „___„,_,_.= ,.,„..„..,,,._._..,.„._.,
65
66
68
73
74
78
Index
Series Finding Guide _ _ „ _ _ _ _ „ _ _ _ _ _ „ . _ _ ^ . , « _ _ _ _ , _ „ _ , . . . , , . _ _ , _ . . . „ „ . . , ... „.=. 80
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0 .4 limited number of changes are made from time to time to reflect new
findings of business cycle research and newly available economic series and
to report recent changes made by producing agencies in concept, composition,
comparability, coverage, seasonal adjustment methods, benchmark data, etc.
Such changes may involve additions or deletions of series used, changes in
placement of series in relation to other series, changes in components of
indexes, etc.
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1. Historical data in appendix F are 'being presented
in a new format starting this month.
The new format shows
quarter^ and annual data in addition to the monthly
figures previously shown.
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3 CENSUS
on economic
fluctuations
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METHOD) BB ADJUSTMENT
A time series computer
program for measuring and analyzing seasonal, tradimj-day, cyclical, and
irregular fluctuations and the relations among them. This program is
particularly useful in analyzing economic fluctuations which take place
within a year.
The latest variant, X-ll, has greater generality and scope than any of the
earlier programs. It can adjust quarterly as well as monthly series and series
with negative and positive numbers as well as those with positive numbers
alone. The X-ll version measures and adjusts not only for seasonal variations, but also for trading-day variations. Further, it computes many summary
and analytical measures of the behavior of each series. The program includes
various techniques, such as F tests and variance analysis, for use in extending
the scope of time series studies and is written in a simplified computer language—Fortran IV. The program deck can be purchased from the Census
Bureau at cost.
CYCLi DEVELOPMENTS. A monthly report for analyzing economic
fluctuations over a short span of years*
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This report brings together several hundred monthly and quarterly "economic
indicator" series for the analysis of short-terrn economic trends and prospects.
These series have been selected, tested, and evaluated, after half a century
of continuing research, as the most useful and reliable for this purpose. The
publication provides not only the basic data, but also various charts and
analytical tables to facilitate such studies. In addition, a time series punchcard file and a diffusion index program are available for those who wish to
carry on further research in business cycle analysis.
TERM ECONOMIC GROWTH. An annual report for the study of
economic fluctuations over a long span of years.
This report has been developed from available statistics to provide a comprehensive, long-range view of the U.S. economy. It has been planned,
prepared, and published as a basic research document for economists, historians, investors, teachers, and students. It brings together for the first time
under one cover, in meaningful and convenient form, the complete statistical
basis for a study of long-term economic trends. It is a unique presentation
of the full range of factors required for an understanding of our country's
economic development. Some of the statistical series go back to 1860. A
punchcard file of the time series included in the report is available for
purchase.
:
.i •;
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IV
Cross-Classification of Business Indicators by
Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
(Minor economic processes and the nunlber of series in each process are shown for each classification. See the index and back cover for series titles)'
""\
Cyclical
\,
Timing
Economic ^\^
Process
^\.
1. EMPLOYMENT AND
UNEMPLOYMENT
(14 series)
LEADING INDICATORS
(36 series)
Marginal employment
adjustments
(5 series)
IV. INVENTORIES AND
INVENTORY
INVESTMENT
Formation of business
enterprises
(2 series)
New investment commitments
(8 series)
Inventory investment
and purchasing
(/series)
(9 series)
V, PRICES, COSTS,
AND PROFITS
(11 series)
VI. MONEY AND CREDIT
(17 series)
VII. FOREIGN TRADE
AND PAYMENTS
(6 series)
VIII. FEDERAL
GOVERNMENT
ACTIVITIES
(9 series)
Job vacancies
(2 series)
Comprehensive employment
(3 series)
Comprehensive unemployment
(3 series)
long-duration unemployment
(1 series)
SERIES UNCLASSIFIED
BY CYCLICAL TIMING
(15 series)
Comprehensive production
(3 series)
Comprehensive income
(2 series)
Comprehensive consumption
and trade (3 series)
(8 series)
(14 series)
LAGGING INDICATORS
(11 series)
(25 series)
II. PRODUCTION,
INCOME,
CONSUMPTION,
AND TRADE
III FIXED CAPITAL
INVESTMENT
ROUGHLY COINCIDENT
INDICATORS
Backlog of investment
commitments
(2 series)
Investment expenditures
(2 series)
i
.Inventories
(2 series)
^
Sensitive commodity prices
(1 series)
Stock prices
(1 series)
Profits and profit margins
(4 series)
Comprehensive wholesale prices Unit labor costs
(2 series)
(2 series)
Flows of money and credit
(6 series)
Credit difficulties
(2 series)
Bank reserves
(1 series)
Money market interest
rates
(4 series)
Comprehensive retail
prices (1 series)
Outstanding debt
(2 series)
Interest rates on
business loans and mortgages
(2 series)
Foreign trade and
payments
(6 series)
Federal Government
activities
(8 series)
DESCRIPTIONS
AND
INTRODUCTION
The business cycle is generally described as consisting
of alternating periods of expansion and contraction ,in
aggregate economic activity—that is, the complex of
activities represented by such concepts as total production, employment, income, consumption, trade, and the
flow of funds. Although a recurrent pattern has been
characteristic of American economic history, many
economists do not consider it inevitable.
The causal relations among various economic
processes are primarily responsible for the cumulative
nature of cyclical forces and explain why expansions
have eventually turned into recessions and recessions
into expansions. Cyclical fluctuations in production
and employment are preceded by fluctuations in measures which relate to future rather than current produc^
tion—measures such as new orders for durable goods>
formation of new business enterprises, and accessions
to payrolls. They are f olio wed by fluctuations in
various economic costs, such as labor costs, interest
rates, fulfillment of long-term commitments, and holdings of inventories and debts.
BACKGROUND
The National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
(NBER) has, since 1938, maintained a list of indicators of aggregate economic activity, and has periodically subjected that list to extensive review. The third
revision of the original list was published in March
1967 and in the following month became the basis for
the presentation of U.S. series in BUSINESS CYCLE
DEVELOPMENTS. Previous issues of BCD were
based on the 1960 NBER list
The revised list of indicators includes some new
series, discontinues some of those on the previous list,
and assigns timing classifications to some series formerly unclassified by timing. The method of preparing
the new list, the reasons for adding or dropping series,
and an explanation of the classification system are described in Indicators of Business Expansions and Contractions. (See reference 8, page 3.) The three major
features of the new list are the classification of series
by cyclical timing, the classification by economic process, and the short list of indicators.
TIMING CLASSIFICATION
Cyclical timing is the major principle of classification
employed in the new list. Timing at both peaks and
troughs is taken into account in grouping the series
into leading, roughly coincident, and lagging indicators. These three groups are described as follows:
Leading Indicators—36 series that usually reach
peaks or troughs before those in aggregate economic
activity as measured by the roughly coincident series (see below). One group of these series pertains
to orders and contracts, another to inventory investment, and so on.
Roughly Coincident Indicators—25 series that are
direct measures of aggregate economic activity or
move roughly together with it; for example, nonagricultural employment, industrial production, and
retail sales.
Lagging Indicators—11 series, such as new plant
and equipment expenditures and manufacturers' inventories, that usually reach turning points after
they are reached in aggregate economic activity.
In. addition, the new list contains a group of 15 series unclassified by cyclical timing. These are series
which have an important role in business cycles but
do not display a consistent timing relation to them.
Also included in BCD, but not on the NBER list,
are (1) a group of series which, although they measure
significant economic relationships, remain unclassified
by cyclical timing and economic process; and (2) indexes of industrial production, consumer prices, and
stock prices for several countries which have important trade relations with the United States.
The historical business cycle turning dates used in
this report are those designated by the NBER. They
mark the approximate dates when, according to the
NBER, aggregate economic activity reached its cyclical
high or low levels. As a matter of general practice,
neither new reference turning dates nor the shading for
recessions will be entered in BCD until after both the
new reference peak and the new reference trough
bounding the shaded area have been designated. This
policy is followed because of the conceptual and empirical difficulties of designating a current recession
and the practical difficulties of terminating the shading
for a current recession without including part of a new
expansion. (See appendix A for historical peak and
trough dates.)
ECONOMIC
CLASSIFICATION
A secondary principle of classification, economic process, supplements the timing classification. Series are
cross-classified according to both principles. Eight
major economic process categories are used: (I) Employment and Unemployment, 14 series; (II) Production, Income, Consumption, and Trade, 8 series; (III)
Fixed Capital Investment, 14 series; (IV) Inventories
and Inventory Investment, 9 series; (V) Prices, Costs,
and Profits, 11 series; (VI) Money and Credit, 17 series; (VII) Foreign Trade and Payments, 6 series;
and (VIII) Federal Government Activities, 8 series.
Most of these major categories are subdivided into
minor economic processes that exhibit rather distinct
differences in cyclical timing.
SHORT LIST OF
A short, substantitdly unduplicated list of principal
indicators provides a convenient way to summarize
the current situation and outlook. Thus, a short list of
25 indicators, taken from the full list, has been designated by the NBER. This list includes 12 leading,
seven roughly coincident, and six lagging indicators;
21 series are monthly and four are quarterly. These
series are identified by asterisks throughout the report.
METHOD OF PRESENTATION
This report consists of two major sections:
Basic Data (chart 1, tables land, 2).—Data for all
series are shown for the current arid prior periods
in both graphic and tabular form. Thus, a broad
view of past and current business cycle fluctuations
is provided.
Analytical Measures (chart 2, tables 3 and 4).—
Measures are presented which help to determine
the magnitude and scope of% current changes in different processes, industries, and areas, and aid in
evaluating the prospects of a turning point in the
business cycle.
A list of titles and sources for all series is shown on
the back cover of this report. The scries numbers are
for identification only; they do not reflect series relationships or order. The index (Series Finding Guide),
which appears at the end of this ireport, is helpful for
locating specific series throughout; the various charts,
tables, and appendixes.
CONCEPTS AND PROCEDURES
Several other concepts and procedures used in this
report are summarized below:
Adjustments for average seasonal fluctuations are
often necessary to bring out the underlying cyclical
trends of a series. In most cases, the seasonally adjusted
data used for a series are the official figures released
by the source agency. In addition, for the special purposes of business cycle studies, a number of series
that are not ordinarily published in seasonally adjusted
form are shown on a seasonally adjusted basis in this
report. The seasonal adjustment process usually accounts for variations due to holidays; however, there
are some cases in which a separate holiday adjustment
is needed for holidays with variable dates.
Months for cyclical dominance (MCD) is an estimate
of the appropriate span over which to observe the
cyclical movements in a monthly series. MCD moving
averages are shown in chart 1 for scries with an MCD
of "5" or more; however, to provide an indication o!E
the variation about these moving averages, monthly
data are also plotted.
Diffusion indexes are simple summary measures
which express the percentage of the components of an
aggregate series rising over given time spans. Their
turning points tend to lead those of the aggregate.
Series numbers preceded by "D" designate diffusion
indexes. Many of the component series used to make
up the diffusion indexes are shown in table 4.
(5)
Gordon, R. A. "Alternative Approaches to
Forecasting: The Recent Work of the National Bureau," The Review of Economics
and Statistics, vol. XLIV, No. 3 (August
1962), pp. 284-291.
(6)
Lempert, Leonard H. "Leading Indicators,"
How Business Economists Forecast (William
F. Butler and Robert A. Kavesh, Ed.) pt. I,
ch. 2, pp. 31-47. Englewood Cliffs, N.J.:
Prentice-Hall, 1966.
(7)
Moore, Geoffrey H., Editor, Business Cycle
Indicators. New York: National Bureau of
Economic Research, Inc., 1961.
(8)
Moore, Geoffrey H. and Shiskin, Julius. Indicators of Business Expansions and Contractions, Occasional Paper 103. New York: National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.,
1967.
(9)
Morris, Frank E. "The Predictive Value of
the National Bureau's Leading Indicators,"
Business Cycle Indicators, vol. I, ch. 4, pp.
110-119. New York: National Bureau of
Economic Research, Inc., 1961.
During the current expansion, high values for the
indicators are identified in table 2. These values are
not necessarily cyclical peak values, but are simply the
highest values reached to date.
Certain appendix materials are presented regularly
in this report. These materials include historical data,
adjustment factors, peak and trough dates, and other
information helpful in interpreting trends in the
indicators.
REFERENCES
More comprehensive explanations of the use of indicators of aggregate economic activity in analyzing current
business conditions and prospects may be found in the
following references:
(1)
(2)
Alexander, Sidney S. "Rate of Change Approaches to Forecasting—Diffusion Indexes
and First Differences," The Economic Journal,
June 1958, pp. 288-301.
Broida, Arthur L. "Diffusion Indexes/'
American Statistician, vol. IX, No. 2 (June
1955), pp. 7-16.
(10) Okun, Arthur M. "On the Appraisal of Cyclical Turning Point Predictors," Journal of
Business, April 1960, pp. 101-120.
(3)
Burns, Arthur F, and Mitchell, Wesley C.
Measuring Business Cycles. New York: National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.,
1946.
(11) Shiskin, Julius. Business Cycle Indicators:
The Known and the Unknown. Paper presented at the 34th session of the International
Statistical Institute, Ottawa, Canada, August
24, 1963. Washington: Bureau of the Census,
1963.
(4)
Daly, D. J. and White, D. A. "Economic Indicators in the 1960's," Proceedings of the
Business and Economics Statistics Section,
American Statistical Association, August
1966, pt. V, pp. 64-75.
(12) Shiskin, Julius. Signals of Recession and Recovery, Occasional Paper 77. New York:
National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.,
1961.
HOW TO READ CHARTS
Peak (P) of cycle indicates end of
expansion and beginning of Recession (shaded areas) as designated
by NBER,
CHART 1 - Series
Arabic number indicates latest
month for which data are plotted,
('T- March)
Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series
relationships or order. Series are
arranged in charts and tables according to their classification by
timing and economic process,
Roman number indicates latest
quarter for which data are plotted.
("II"^second quarter)
Solid line indicates monthly data,
(Data may be actual monthly figures
or MCD moving averages.*)
Dotted line indicates anticipated
data,
B r o k e n line i n d i c a t e s actual
monthly data for series where an
MCD moving average* is plotted.
Various scales are used to highlight the patterns of the individual
series. "Scale A" is an arithmetic
scale, "scale U" is a logarithmic
scale with 1 cycle in a given distance, "scale L-2" is a logarithmic
scale with 2 cycles in that distance,
etc. The scales should be carefully
noted because they show whether
or not the plotted lines for various
series are directly comparable.
Parallel lines indicate a break in
continuity (data not available,
changes in series definitions,
extreme values, etc,),
Solid line with plotting points indicates quarterly data.
Solid line indicates monthly data
over 6- or 9-month spans.
Broken line indicates monthly data
over 1-month spans.
Solid line with plotting points indicates quarterly data over various
spans.
* Many of the more irregular series are
shown in terms of their MCD moving
averages as well as their actual monthly
data. In such cases, the 4-, 5-, or 6-term
moving
averages are plotted l¥i, 2, or
2l/z months, respeetiv0ly, behind the
actual data. See appendix C for a description of MCD moving averages.
Trough (T) of cycle indicates end of
recession and beginning of Expansion as designated by NBER,
CHART 2 - Diffusion Indexes
Scale shows percent of components
rising,
Arabia number indicates latest
roonth for which data are used ;in
qompijting the indexes. ("2"
February*
Roman number indicates latest
quarter for which data are use:! in
computing the indexes, ("IV"fourth quarter)
Broken line with plotting points indicates quarterly data over various
intervals. This line is also used to
indicate anticipated quarterly data.
HOW TO LOCATE A SERIES
To locate a series in BCD, consult the Index—Series Finding Guide in the back of the book where series are arranged into eight groups
by economic process and cross referenced by timing classification in the first column. The back cover, which lists series titles (followed
by a Roman numeral denoting economic process group) and sources in numerical order within each timing group, may also be helpful to
some readers.
Section ONE
BASIC
DATA
charts and tables
LEADING INDICATORS
Employment and unemployment
Fixed capital investment
Inventories and inventory investment
Prices, costs, and profits
/Money* and credit
ROUGHtY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
Employment and unemployment
Production, income, consumption, and trade
Fixed 'capita/ investment
Prices, costs, and profits
/Money and credit
LAGGING INDICATORS
Employment and unemployment
Fixed capital investment
Inventories and inventory investment
Prices, costs, and profits
Money and credit
SERIES UNCLASSIFIED BY CYCLICAL TIMING
Prices, costs, and profits
Foreign trade and payments
Federal Government activities
Also SERIES UNCLASSIFIED BY CYCLICAL TIMING AND ECONOMIC PROCESS and INTERNATIONAL
COMPARISONS (indexes of industrial production, consumer prices, and stock prices
for selected foreign countries)
Table 1
BASIC DATA
MAY 1968
bed
|
CHANGES OVER 4 LATEST MONTHS
COMPARATIVE MEASURES
Average percent change * 2
Duration
(months)
Apr. '67 Apr. '67 1953 to
Curto date to date
1967 Aver6 rent
(with (without4 (without45 age direc7
sign) sign)
sign)3
tion
Basic data8
Mar.
1968
Feb.
1968
Unit of
measure
Pe roent change '*
Apr.
1968
Jan.
to
Feb.
1968
Fob.
to
War,
1968
Mar,
to
Apr,
1968
Series number
Series
(See complete titles and sources on
back cover)
CURRENT PERFORMANCE
LEADING INDICATORS
I. EMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT
Marginal Employment Adjustments;
*L Avg, workweek production workers, tnfg.
*30 Nonasri placements all industries
2. Accession rate, manufacturing, <
5, Avgu weekly initial claims, State
unemployment insurance (invertsd^)
**
3- Layoff (ate manufacturing (inverted2)
111. FIXED CAPITAL INVESTMENT
Formation of Business Enterprises:
*38. Index of net business formation.
13o New business incorporations • * *
New Investment Commitments;
*6. New orders durable goods industries ... e ....
94. Construction contracts, value
*10. Contracts and orders, plant and equipment9 ....
11. New capital appropriations, manufacturing . . .
24. New orders mach. and equip, industries. <.....
9. Construction contracts, commercial and
industrial buildings.
7 « Private nonfarm housing starts
[)i
29i New building permits private housing .......
0.0
-0.3
-0.3
0.5
3.1
4.5
0.5 2.2
2.1 2.0
/>.(
2.2
1 Hours
1
1 Per 100 employ, . .
+2.3
+0.1
6.5
11,0
5.3 1.7
9.4 2.1
' +0.8
+0.7
1.1
3.6
0.8 2.9
2.5
1,8
+1.2
+0.8
+0.4
-1.5
+0.8
3.4
6.7
4.2
3.0
3.6
3.6
6.4
4.6
9.3
4.1
1.8
1.6
1.8
9.2
1.9
-1.1
+3.6
+2,4
8,0
8.0
7.1
8.5
7.2
3.9
+0.7
5.1
-0.1
0.0
O.I
0,0
-11.1
-0.7
-7.9
(NA)
*1
*30
2
+ 7,0
0.0
*5.5
t7.1
-1.1
(NA)
5
3
(NA)
(NA)
+ 0,9
<4.6
-0,8
-0.2
(NA)
(NA)
*38
13
r26.ll
176
r5.90
p25.42
146
p5.54
•*5.2
+ 12,8
45.0
-2.6
-17.0
-6.1
r4.6l
P4.82
fO.2
-1.9
-4.7
-4.1
-7.8
+ 2.7
+ 4.6
*6
94
*10
11
24
47.09
-4-?
pi , 500 + 4 . H
plU.4 * 2 3 . . 5
^-P.f)
-2.1
+ 1.2
-29.3
+ 8.3
-5.8
9
7
*29
P40.4
P 4'>S
(NA)
<l.;?
-3 3
190
(NA)
113,6
17,974
r24.83
156
r5.62
P5.57
r4.49
61.39
rl,499
1 20 . 0
66.61
rl,46fl
r!21.4
479
4.5
40.7
494
p4.0
1 Thousands * ...
1 Per 100 employ* • •
199
rt.4
188
pi, 3
1 1957-59-100 ....
1
114.5
1H,014
1.5
1.6
1.9
1 Bil dollars
1 1957-59-100 ....
1 Bil. dollars
6
do
2
do
Mil. sq.ft.
1
floor space —
1 Ann. rate, thous . .
1 1957-59-100....
2.6
5.3
3
Ann. rate, bil.dol. .
W2.7
5.7
3.8
1.5
3
(to......:
r+3,4
pt2.3
(NA)
-3.H
-1.1
(NA)
*31
+2.9
5.3
6.5
2.4
3
Percent
53
52
51
-3.<.
-1.9
-1.9
37
-0,2
1.2
1.5
1.6
2
Ann. rate, bil. dot.
r-0.2
p-0.7
(NA)
-0.'.
-0.5
(NA)
20
+0.3
4.3
5,0
1.8
2
Percent . .
61
64
68
-4."
+4.9
+ 6.2
26
+2.6
5.6
7.4
3.1
2
..... do
55
54
52
+ 10.0
-l.fi
-3.7
32
+0.05
0.75
0.50
1.7
1
Bil dollars
nO. IB
r+0,94
p+0,M
^0.64
+0.76
-0.43
25
-0.1
0.7
1.3
2.6
1
1957-59=100....;
99.5
100.1
08.3
-C.3
+0.6
-1.8
*23
+0.5
2,3
2.5
2.4
1
1941-43-10
90.75
39.09
95,67
-A. 5
-l.rt
+ 7.4
*19
+4,0
4.0
5.2
9.2
9
Ann. rate, bil.doL.
p52,2
+A.2
*16
+1.7
+1.2
-0.1
2.8
2.5
0.5
4.1 7,6
5.6 7.9
0.6 2:5
6
3
1
Percent . «
Qents
1957-59=100....
p!2.5
+2.5
(NA)
-0.4
22
18
*17
-0.04
+0.94
+0.58
+0.38
+0.87
+2.8
3.00
4.88
2.56
0.78
9.27
12.7
2.49
2.89
1,34
0.86
2.77
11.0
1.5
1.4
1.5
1.6
1.6
6.7
1
2
1
3
2
3
Ann. rate, percent.
do
Ann.rate.bil.dol. .
do
do
Ann. rate, mil. dot..;
-2.8
22.0
19.6
1.5
4
Mil dollars
+4.3
6.4
2.7
5.2
2
Percent
40.7
IV. INVENTORIES AND INVENTORY
INVESTMENT
Inventory Investment and Purchasing;
21. Change in business
inventories, all
industries9 10
*31. Change in book value,
manufacturing and
trude inventories1^
« ......
37. Purchased materials, percent reporting
higher inventories
<
20. Change in book value, mfrs,' inventories
of materials and supplies . «
*
26, Buying policy, prod, materials, commitments
60 days or longer @
+
32. Vendor performance, percent reporting
25. Change in unfilled
orders, durable goods
industries10
„
*
21
-6,5
V. PRICES, COSTS, AND PROFITS
Sensitive Commodity Prices:
*23« Industrial materials prices©
Stock Prices:
*19. Stock prices, 500 common stocks (§} . . .
Profits and Profit Margins:
*16. Corporate profits after taxes9. . ....,.<,
22. Ratio, profits to income originating,
corporate, all industries
18. Profits per dollar of sales, manufacturing 9
*17- Ratio, price to unit labor cost, manufacturing . .
VI. MONEY AND CREDIT
Flows of Money and Credit:
98. Change in money supply and 10time deposits10 . .
85- Change in U.S. money supply
33. Change in mortgage debt10 .........
*H3. Change in consumer installment
debt 10
10
112- Change in business loans
„
110. Total private borrowing9 ... ^
Credit Difficulties:
14. Liabilities of business failures (inverted2)
39. Delinquency rate, installment2 loans,
30 days and over (inverted }
(NA)
r99.2
r99,5
+ 4.20
+ 8.16
0.00
+ *..88
+19.20 p+17.96
+6.79
+6.79
-2.28
+4.07
p65,564
81.06
1.51
80.46
p99.2
p-t 5 , 1 6 + 1 . ?0
P+JM2 -6.0)
(NA) +0.71
(NA) + 2.01
pm.64 -U.K1
-14. 8
HT.43
+ 30. s
(MA1)
+13.2
+ 0.3
-0.3
+ T.96 -3.00
98
+f..B8 + 2.64
85
33
(NA)
-1.24
O.C
(NA) *113
112
+ 6.15 n<?.';7
no
•+•0.7
0.0
(NA)
14
39
Table 1
BASIC DATA
MAY 1968
CHANGES OVER 4 LATEST MONTHS-Continued
COMPARATIVE MEASURES
Apr. '67
to date
(with
sign)3
CURRENT PERFORMANCE
Duration
(months)
Basic data8
Apr. '67 1953 to
CurAver- rent
to date
1967
6
(without age direc(without
tion7
sign)4 sign)45
Unit of
measure
Feb.
1968
Percent change 2
Mar.
1968
Apr.
1968
Series number
Average percent change
Series
(See complete titles and sources on
back cover)
12
Jan.
to
Feb.
1968
Feb.
to
Mar.
.1968
Mar.
to
Apr.
1968
+l.l
+4,9
+2.2
+4.7
+0.5
-6.9
301
46
ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
L EMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT
Job Vacancies:
301 Nonagri job openings unfilled
2.1
3.2
3.1 3.7
3.0 3.0
+0.2
0.6
0.4
2.8
+0.3
+0.2
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.4
4.9
2.2
Ann. rate, biL
man-hours
7 Thousands
1
do
+0.3
4.3
3.8
2.7
2
5.0
3.4
Comprehensive Employment:
*41 Employees in nonagrL establishments
42- Total nonagricultural employment
Comprehensive Unemployment:
*43 Unemployment rate total (inverted2 }
45- Avg. weekly insured
unemploy. rate,
State (inverted2)
°
40. Unemployment rate, married males (inverted2) . .
II. PRODUCTION, INCOME, CONSUMPTION,
AND TRADE
Comprehensive Production:
49 GNP in current dollars?
*50 GNP in 1958 dollars9
*47. Industrial production
Comprehensive Income:
^'52 Personal income
53 Wages salaries in mining mfg. constr
Comprehensive Consumption and Trade:
*H16 Manufacturing and trade sates
.. .
57 Final sales?
*54 Sales of retail stores
III. FIXED CAPITAL INVESTMENT
Backlog of Investment Commitments:
96 Unfilled orders durable goods industriesX1
97. Backlog of capital appropriations, mfg.
V. PRICES, COSTS, AND PROFITS
Comprehensive Wholesale Prices:
55 Wholesale prices industrial commod. (§)
58 Wholesale prices manufactured goods ©
4 Thousands
1 1957-59-100....
+0.4
+0.4
360
193
368
r202
p370
pi 88
r!35.26
67,712
71,604
r!35,00
r67,S!3
71,788
P134.78
p67,921
71,656
+1.7
+0.9
+0.6
-0.2
+0,1
+0.3
-0.2
+0.2
-0.2
511
*41
42
3.7
3.6
3.5
-5.7
+2.7
+2.8
*43
2.3
1.7
2.2
1.7
2.1
1,5
+4.3
-6.2
+4.5
+11.8
45
40
+0.5
0.0
49
*50
*47
*52
53
2
Percent
0.0
+1.7
+1.8
4.3
4.7
4.2
5.9
+2.2
+1.2
+0.3
2.2
1.2
0.6
1.5 19.3
1.2 10,2
1.0 3.5
87
12
3
Ann, rate, biL doL
do
1957-59=100 ....
r826.7
689.7
rl6l,9
rl62.7
pl62.7
+2.4
+1.5
+0.4
+0.7
+0.6
0.7
0.8
0.5
0.8
30
3
Ann. rate, bil. doL
do
r659.4
173.9
r666.5
r!74.5
p670.1
P175.2
+1.3
+2.1
+1.1
+0.3 :
+0.5
+0,4
+0.8
+2.1
+0.5
1.1
2,1
1.3
r92,595 p94,327
1.0 2.3
5 Mil. dollars
1.4 34.8 120 Ann. rate, bil. dol. r 824.0
1 Mil. dollars
r27,399 r28,129
0.9 2.2
+1,9
(NA)
p27>640
+0.1
+3.2
+1.2
+2.7
-1.7
+0.7
+0.3
0.8
0.7
1.4 5.7
5.4 12.4
+0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2 4.1 46
0.2 3.3 12
+0.2
5.3
2.9
2
1
3
6
do
do
Bil. dollars
do
1957-59-100 ....
do
(NA)
0.0
*816
57
*54
r79.32
r80.26
p20.S3
p80.77
+0.2
+1.2
-0.4
HO . 6
96
97
108.3
108.6
108.6
108.9
108.8
109.0
+0.5
+0.5
+0.3
+0.3
-tO. 2
+0.1
55
58
r+38
r-315
p-420
+106
+353
+105
93
5.14
6.80
5.39
4.54
5.36
6.79
5,28
4.34
-2.2
6.57
5,16
4.31
-Of4
+0.5
+3.4
+3.5
+4.5
+5.3
+4.3
-0.1
-2.0
-4.4
114
116
115
117
0.6
0.6
0.5
0.0
+16.7
*502
VI. MONEY AND CREDIT
Bank Reserves:
93 Free reserves ^(inverted^) ffi)
Money Market Interest Rates:
114 Treasury bill rate 6D
116 Corporate bond yields (§)
•
93
2.1
50
99
+3.0
+1.7
+1.4
+1.6
5.1
2.6
2.6
3.0
6.4 2.6
1.8 2.7
1.7 2.8
2.5 2.6
+1.4
1.4
6.3
+1.8
2.4
3.1 17.4
+0.8
1.6
1.8 1.9
+0.3
0.4
0.5
3
Mil. dollars
2
1
1
1
Percent
•=. 4.97
do
do
do
0.0
LAGGING INDICATORS
1. EMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT
Long-Duration Unemployment:
*502. Unemployment rate, persons unemployed
15 weeks and over (inverted2)
4.1 18
Percent
0.0
III. FIXED CAPITAL INVESTMENT
Investment Expenditures:
*61. Bus. expenditures, new plant and equip,9
505. Machinery and equipment sales and
business construction expenditures ........
IV. INVENTORIES AND INVENTORY
INVESTMENT
Inventories:
*/l Book value mfg and trade inventories
(J5i Book value, mfrs.' inventories of
finished eoods
..
+0.4
0.7
6.8
0.6 3.6
6
Ann. rate, biL dol.
1
do
9
5
Bil. dollars
do
a64.80
*61
+3.3
(NA)
505
+0.1
(NA)
*71
+0.8
(NA)
65
r72.25
P73.17
(NA)
-1.3
+1.3
rHl.62
pHl.81
(NA)
+0.2
r27,85
p28.06
(NA)
•>0.5
Table 1
BASIC DATA
MAY 1968
CHANGES OVER 4 LATEST MONTHS-Continued
Average percent change
Series
(See complete titles and sources on
back cover)
Duration
(months)
Percent chaBgfj 2
Basic data 8
CurApr. '67 Apr. '67 1953 to
to date to date
1967 Aver-6 rent
(with
age direc7
(without4 (without
sign)3
tion
sign) sign) 45
Unit of
measure
Feb.
1968
Mar,
1968
Apr,
1968
Jan.
to
Feb.
19(18
Fob,
to
Mar.
1968
Mar,
£o
Apr.
1968
iQ.'i
Series number
CURRENT PERFORMANCE
COMPARATIVE MEASURES
1 2
bed
LAGGING INDtCATORS-Continued
V. PRICES, COSTS, AND PROFITS
Unit Labor Costs:
68- Labor cost (cur. dol.) per unit Of gross
product (1958 dol )r nonfin, corp^
*62. Labor cost per unit of output, rofg. ..........
VI. MONEY AND CREDIT
Outstanding Debt:
66. Consumer installment debt ...... .........
*72. Commercial and industrial loans outstanding. . .
Interest Rates on Business Loans and Mortgages:
*67. Bank rates on short-term bus. loans9 ®
118. Mortgage yields residential @ ...........
+1,0
+0.4
1.0
0.5
0.9 9,2 27 Dollars
0.6 2.5 1 1957-59=100....
pO.7.34.
rl09,5
r!09.4
p!09.9
ti.;>
itV)
-n.i
+0.5
+0.7
0.5
1.2
0.8 13.5 82
1.0 3.7 2
Mil. dollars
do
77,853
65,450
(NA)
78,419
65,7«9 p67,*U
•i r ,7
-r.i
+0.7
+2,3
+0.8
2.3
0.9
2.2 7.9
0.6 10.6
6
2
Percent
..... do......
6,36
6.78
+0.3
0.3
0.2 4.2 32
1957-59-100....
119.0
-16
+104-15.0
+1.0
+3.0
+2.9
+1.5
846
1,221
133.1
6.0
13.0
7.6
3.1
308
573
57.7
3.6
12.6
6.4
2.9
+1.3
+3.7
+2.6
+1,9
+0.9
+4.7
+4.5
+1.7
1.3
3.7
2,6
1.9
11.6
24.8
20.2
10.6
2.6
2.5
2.1
2.3
13.6
26.2
21.4
20.9
-0.3
-0.5
0.6
0.9
2.2 8.7
1.0 2.8
3
5
-0.2
2.2
2.0 2.0
1
do
-0.4
1.1
0.9 2.8
3
1957-59=100 ....
rl!9.9
-0.1
7.9
8.5
4.7
3
Ratio
rO.066
2
1
1
do
1957-59-100 ....
Percent
;NA)
68
*62
t n . r«
•» 3.1
66
*72
i 0. 7
tl.h
*67
118
».),4
i0.3
81
Mil. dollars
p-600
ti,:*^
*"crdo
p-520
-157,7 "trM^.n r. . 9 -32*/J •i 4:^.V
-H.71.2
do
-t).4 -1 1 . •} -17.7
2,773.1 2,454.7 2,^3.^
do
r982
(NA)
•i;;.? -4.;? ;NA)
do
P941
(NA) -t.?0.9
p280
260
t\A)
1957-59-100..,.
•*7.7
-0 . 6 -* n . 4 *1,1
Mil. dollars
2,601.9 2,612.4 2,64X6
89
a
b
88
86
861
862
87
Ann, rate, bil. dol.
do
do
do
Mil. dollars .
do
Bil. dollars . —
Mil. dollars
4t'<.7
6.83
C;«CM
SERIES UN CLASSIFIED BY
CYCLICAL TIMING
V. PRICES, COSTS, AND PROFITS
Comprehensive Retail Prices:
81- Consumer prices @
VII.
119.5
k
119, )
+0.3
FOREIGN TRADE AND PAYMENTS
89.- U.S. balance of payments: g 10
a. Liquidity balance basis
b* Official settlements basis
88. Merchandise trade balance 10 ..............
86- Exports, excluding military aid
861. Export orders durabi3S exc, mot. veru®
862. Export orders, nonelectrical machinery
87. General imports
VIII. FEDERAL GOVERNMENT ACTIVITIES
95. Federal surplus (+} or deficit
(-), nat'l.
income and prod, accts 9 10
951. Fed. receipts, nat'l, income and product accts9.
952. Fed. expenditures, nat'l, income and product
..
101. National defense purchases, current dollars9. . .
91- Defense Dept obligations, total . . .
90. Defense Dept. oblig., procurement
99* New orders, defense products industries
92, Military contract awards in U.S
5.1
5.6
1.6
1.8
1.4
1.6
1.8
3
3
1
1
1
2
2
6.7 9
9
10.4
11.8 39
8.3 36
1.4 1
1.4 1
1.6 1
1.5 1
ii.0
.!.£
p-10.7
pl64.9
rl75.6
r76.7
7,615
2,865
r3,77
3,445
6,208
1,985
r5.2C
3,124
(MA)
(MA)
p4,2^
UA)
p84.1
rl.53
pl . 50
INA)
3.58
r3.S4
rllB.8
-1 H. 5
-?0.7
-*37.9
-9.3
£NA)
(MA)
-17.7
(NA)
95
951
952
101
91
90
99
92
-".4
;:,o
-2.0
(NA)
850
851
p3.fl
•» 1.4
-1.1
»2.0
852
pU8.fi
-1,1
-0.9
-0.?
853
-1?.0
854
-'•.4
i6.,1
-0.4
855
856
JK7
•4 .6
H
J..3
* 'i. 2
in.
2
(
il K3
SERIES UNCLASSIFIED BY CYCLICAL
TIMING AND ECONOMIC PROCESS
850. Ratio, output to capacity, mfg< 9. .
851. Ratio inventories to sales mfg* trade. . .
852. Ratio, unfilled orders to shipments,
manufacturers' durable goods
853. Ratio, production of business equipment
to consumer goods
<
854. Ratio, personal saving to disposable
personal income
855. Ratio, nonagri. job openings unfilled
to persons unemployed. . . . <
856. Ratio, avg. earnings to consumer prices
857. Vacancv rate, total rental housing9^
+1.1
+0.1
-5.3
4.8
0.3
7.0
5.5 3.3
0.4 2.4
3.8 6.3
Percent . . . a
Ratio
0.122
rll6.6
(NA)
0.129
117.3
pO.137
pllfi.H
».")
T
cdi
i5.7
40.6
*Sertes included in the 1966 NBER "short list" of indicators. ©Not seasonally adjusted.
NA^not available;
r^revised;
p-preliminary;
e^estcmated;
^anticipated.
Average percent changes are based on month-to-month (or quarter-to-quarter) percent changes for the specified periods.
To facilitate interpretations of cyclical movements, those
series that usually fall when general business activity rises and rise when business falls are inverted so that rises are shown as declines and declines as rises (see series 3, 5, 14, 39,40, 43,
3
45,93, and 502). Percent changes are computed in the usual way but the signs are reversed. See footnote 10 for other "change" qualifications,
Average computed with regard to sign.
5
^Average computed without regard to sign.
The period varies among the series; however, for most series, the period covered is 1953-67.
Average numbor of consecutive monthly changes
in the same direction (see the explanation for "the Average Duration of Run" in appendix C).
Duration of the current direction of change (see the sign of the latest entry in "Current percent
change" columns) measured in months. When there is no change between two consecutive values the direction is assumed to be the-same as that of the preceding psriod.
Series are seasonally adjusted except for those series, indicated by ©, that appear to contain no seasonal movement. See additional basic data and notes in table 2.
'Quarterly series; figures are placed in
10
the middle month of quarter, SinCe basic data for this series are expressed in plus or minus amounts, the changes are month-to-month (or quarter=to-quarter) differences expressed in the same
1:L
unit of measure as the basic data, rather than in percentages.
End-of-quarter series; figures are placed in the last month of quarter,
x
Chart 1A
b<d
BASIC DATA
MAY 1968
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 to PRESENT g.
Leading Indicators
I. EMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT
(July) |Aug.j
(Mw.) |0ct.|
P
T
P
|M(y] (Apr.)
P T
T
(May) (Feb.)
P T
Marginal Employment Adjustments
42-!
*1. Avg. workweek, prod, wkrs., mfg. (hours)
*3(K Nonagri. placements, all Indus, (thous.j
2. Accession rate, mfg. (per 100 employees]
5. Avg. weekly initial claims, State unempl. insur. (thous.-inverted scale)
3. Layoff rate, mfg. (per 100 employees-inverted scale]
52
S3
56
§7
D
Chart 1A
BASIC DATA
MAY 1968
bed
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 to PRESENT-Continued
Leading Indicators -Continued
HI. FIXED CAPITAL INVESTMENT
P
T
10
*38. Index of net ius. formation (1957-59=100)
13. New bus. incorporations (thousj
*6. New orders, dur. goods Indus. (bil. dot.)
94. Construction contracts, total value (index:
1957-59=100; MCD movinf avg.-5-term]
*10. Contracts and orders, plant and equip. |bil. dol.
58
39
60
61
'. Cwre@t data for tfiese
S'/
1968
Chart 1A
bed
BASIC DATA
MAY 1968
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 to PRESENT-Continued
Leading Indicators -Continued
M. FIXED CAPITAL INVESTMENT- Continued
11. New capital appropriations, mfg., Q (bil. dol.J
24. New orders, mach. and equip, indtis. (bil. dot.
V
9, Constr, contracts, com. and indus. (mil. sq. ft.
of floor
7. Private nonfarm housing starts (am. rate,
millions; MCD moving avg.»5-term)
*29. New bldg. permits, private
housing units (index: 1957-59=100)
1948
49
50
51
i2
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
6©
S@g 'How to Read etoarts 1 ?m 2,} page 4. Asterisk H identifies series on 'stiort list9, terat data for
©I
62
63
©4
ari slaowo ®i pige 31
11
Chart 1A
BASIC DATA
MAY 19 58
bed
BUSINESS
CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 to PRESENT -Continued
Leading Indicators-Continued
IX. INVENTORIES AND INVENTORY INVESTMENT
(N«w.) (Oct.)
P
T
:
(Jufr) (Aug.!
IP
T
(July) (Apr.)
P
T
(May) (F@b.)
P T
vestment and Purchasing
21. Change in 1$$. Inventories, all tasjus., Q |ann. rate, bit. dot.)
*31.JSiiwgeJn boo_k vatoe, mfg. and trade inventories
^lii; rate, SiHoi,; ICDlfiovinglvg.-WeTiTif ^
H -{CD
37. Purchased matefials, percent of companies reporting higher inventories
20. Change to took value, mfrs.' Inventories of materials and
supplies farm, rate, bit. dol; if CD moving avg,-6-term]
26. Buying policy, prod, mtls., percent of companies
reporting commitments 60 days or longer
££
01
See 'Moo to lead torts It atiiS] I, pagQ4.
http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/
12 Bank of St. Louis
Federal Reserve
Chart 1A
bed
BASIC DATA
MAY 1968
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 to PRESENT-Continued
Leading Indicators-Continued
EL. INVENTORIES AND INVENTORY INVESTMENT-Continued
(July) (Aug.)
P
T
(Nov.) (Oct.)
P
T
(July) (Apr.)
P T
(May) (Feb.)
P T
performance|$#fcent of compacts,;reporting slower deliveries
25FChange in unfilled orders,** goods Indus. ((§;' M; MCD moving avg.--5-term]
PRICES, COSTS, AND PROFITS
* Industrial material prices (index: 1957-59-100)
119. Stock prices. 500 common
stocks (into 1941-43=10)
1948
49
50
51
S2
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
5
See 'How to fed Charts 1 and 2,' pge4. Asterisk (*) identifies series m 'short list . Currant«
13
Chart 1A
BASIC DATA
MAY 1968
bed
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 to PRESENT-Continued
Leading Indicator*-Continued
I. PRICES, COSTS, AND PROFrrS-Continued
(Nov.) (Oct.)
•
(Julsf) (Aug.]
P
T
'
P
(July) (Apr.)
T
P
T
(Mtiy) (Feb.]
P
T
Profits and Profit Margins
' ',' --:>'<.•
;; :
r
': •^:"''
VO«. fc^ate profits afto faxes, Q faun, rate, bil. doi,)
Ratio, profits to income originating, corporate, all industries, Q (percent)
-
S3
S4
85
58
5?
, 18. profits per;|Wtar of sates, mfg.f Q {cents)
S8 _ 59
60
61
62
63
64
) iQaef emails H art i; |p;ags-<;. Asterisk n iteptifes series m *$M list'. Cirreat data for these series arc shown on page 36.
http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/
14
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
6B
66
(I?
1§@8
Chart 1A
bed
BASIC DATA
MAY 1968
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 to PRESENT-Continued
Leading Indicators-Continued
. MONEY AND CREDIT
(Nov.) (Oct.)
[July] (Aug.]
P
[July! (Apr.)
T
P
T
[May) (Feb.)
P T
98. Change in money supply and time deposits
(ann. rate, percent; MCD moving avg.-6-term)
Flows of Money and Credit
85. Change in money supply (ann. rate, percent; MCD moving avg.-6-term)
33. Change in mortgage debt ann, rate, bil. dol.
*113. Change in consumer installment dept [ann. rate, bit. dol.
112. Change in business loans (ann. rate, bit. dol.; MCD moving avg.-5-term)
49
S©
51
ia
(
53
94
55
See 'Mow to iead Cfoarts 1 and 2,' |^ge 4. Asterisk |*J gdentlfles
96
57
98
m 'shart Gist8.
15
Chart 1A
BASIC DATA
bed
MAY 19(18
001 BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 to PRESENT-Continued
Leading Indicators-Continued
21. MONEY AND CREDIT-Continued
v-1 lOct f
16
fjiriy) (Aug
11V. TfUl plivatrEoffiMff, Q'lann. rate, bit. doi.)
14. Liab. of bus. failures (mil. do).- inverted scale;
MCD moving avg.-6-term)
a
39. Delinquency rate, 30 days and over, total
installment loans (percent-inverted scale]
§4
iS
SS
S7
58
^ate ff@ir tee SQFIQS QPQ stew @p p
63
Chart 1A
bed
BASIC DATA
MAY 1968
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 to PRESENT-Continued f
Roughly Coincident Indicators
I. EMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT
Wov.] (Oct.)
P
T
fjulyj (Apr.)
P
T
(July) (Aug.)
P
T
(May) (Feb.]
P T
301. Nonagrj. job openings unfilled, BES (thousands)
D
46. Help-wanted advertising (index: 1957-59=100)
Comprehensive Employment
511. Man-hours in nonagri. establishments
(ann. rate, bit. man-hours)
*41. Employees in nonagri.
establishments (millions)
42. Total nonagri. employment (millions)
1943
49
5©
51
12
53
S4
§9
56
5?
§8
Se^ 'Hew to Read) Ehgrts 1 arad 2/ page4'. AsterSsk ( * J identifies seriis m 'short Bast'. Cmirreiislt ifete fw
17
Chart 1A
BASIC DATA
MAY 1968
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 to PRESENT-Continued
Roughly Coincident Indicators-Continued
I
EMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT-Continued
|MO¥.) (QcL)
;
P
T
iComprehensive Unemployment!
*43. Uitttployment rate, total (percent-inverted scale)
45. Avg. weekly insured unemployment rate (percent-inverted scale)
40. Unemployment rate, married males (percent-inverted scale)
I.
PRODUCTION, INCOME, CONSUMPTION, AND TRADE
Comprehensive Production
18FRASER
Digitized for
4f. GHP 1n current-dollars,Q (ami. rate, bit. dot]
*50. 8NP in 1958 dollars, Q
(ann. fate, "KIT."'dol.
*47. Industrial production
(index: 1957-59=100)
S3
S4
5S
56
97
S8
5
B9
60
61
62
S3
S4
68
AsterSsfe |'J idesitiftes series m 'sfcert fiost , Cyrrent (Sata fer these series are shewoi m pcgos 38 and 39.
6i
C:f
bed
Chart 1A
BASIC DATA
MAY 1968
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 to PRESENT-Continued
lent Indicators-Continued
H. PRODUCTION, INCOME, CONSUMPTION, AND TRADE-Continued
|DiGi?J (Ansi.)
P
T
[Jills;) |%HL|
( F T
JK
F T
Comprehensive Income
*52. Personal income (ann. rate, bil. do!.)
53. Wages and salaries in mining,
mfg.t eonstr. (ann.-rate, bit, dot,)
1948
49
50
51
51
53
§4
iS
§6
S7
58
59
60
il
il
S3
i4
See law to Read Charts 1 and 2/ pr<g34. Asterisk 1*J Identifies series m 'sfiort Hstf. teMt data for ttes@ sgrfes ®r© sSsowK ®i pg©
19
Chart 1A
BASIC DATA
MAY 11)68
bed
fl 0| BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 to PRESENT-Continued
Roughly Coincident Indicators-Continued
ffl. FIXED CAPITAL, INVESTMENT
(My)
|Nov.) (Oct.)
P
T
P
F
(Apr.j
T
(May) (Feb.;
P
T
Backlog of Investment Commitments
IC
98. Mfrs.' unfilled orders, dur. goods Indus, (bit. dol.J
97. Backlog of cap. appropriations, mfg., Q (bil. dot.)
3L. PRICES, COSTS, AND PROFITS
Comprehensive Wholesale Prices
Digitized 20
for FRASER
55. Wholesale prices, industrial commodities (index: 1957-59=100)
58. Wholesale prices,mfrd. goods (index: 1957-59=100)
si,
ga
§s
§4
5§
56
§7
58
59
these series are sftowsi on page 40,
60
®3
64
Chart 1A
bed
BASIC DATA
MAY 1968
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 to PRESENT-Continued
Roughly Coincident Indicators-Continued
. MONEY AND CREDIT
puly) fApr.J
P I
(Nov.) (Oct.
(May! (Feb
P T
93; Free reserves (bil. dol.-inverted scale )
114. Treasury bit) rate (percent)
116. Corporate bond yields (percent)
115. Treasury bond yields (percent)
117. Municipal bond yields (percent)
1948
4S
5@
51
S2
S3
54
S§
56
,87
§8
§9
See 'H@w to Read etiarts 1 and 3," page 4* Current data for these series are'stawji m pggt 40.
21
Chart 1A
BASIC DATA
MAY 1368
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 to PRESENT-Continued
Lagging Indicators
I. EMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT
INov.) (Oct.)
P
(July) (Apr.)
(Aug.)
T
T
P
T
(May) (Feb.)
P
T
Long Duration Unemployment
*502. Unemployment rate, persons unemployed 15 weeks and ovtr (percent-inverted scale)
HE. FIXED CAPITAL INVESTMENT
Investment Expenditures
*61. Bus. expend., new plant and equip., Q (ann. rate, bil. dot.'
505. Mach. and equip, sales and bus. constr.
expend, (ann. rate, bit. dol.)
33C. INVENTORIES AND INVENTORY INVESTMENT
22for FRASER
Digitized
*71. Book value, mfg. and trade inventories (bil. dol.
65. Book value of rnfrs/ inventories, finished goods (bit. dol.]
61
'. Gyrreot data tfir
(31
are
€3
64
m page 41
bed
Chart 1A
bed
MAY
BASIC DATA
1968
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948
to PRESENT-Continued
Lagging Indicators-Continued
. PRICES, COSTS, AND PROFITS
(Nov.] (Oet.)
F
(July) (Aug.)
T
P
T
(July) (Apr.)
(May) (Feb.]
P I
F T
68. Labor cost (curr. dot,) per dot. of
_ real Corp, GNP,Q
3ZL MONEY AND CREDIT
Outstanding Debt
66. Consumer installment debt (bit. dot
*72. Com. and ind. loans outstanding, weekly
reporting large com. banks (bil. dot.)
Interest Rates on Business, Loans and Mortgages
a
*67. Bank rates on short-term
bus. loans, Q (percent)
118. Mortgage yields, residential (percent)
54J
1948
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
1968
See 'How to Read Charts 1 and 2,' page 4. Asterisk (*) identifies series on, 'short list'. Current data for these series are shown on page 42.
23
Chart 1A
BASIC DATA
MAY 1961)
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948
to PRESENT-Continued
Series Unclassified by Cyclical Timing
. PRICES, COSTS, AND PROFITS
(July) (Aug.)
(Nov.) (Oct.)
P
T
P
(July| (Apr)
P T
T
(May) (Feb.)
P ¥
Comprehensive Retail Prices
ConsumeFpceslTnlex: T9U7^59=1QQ[
FOREIGN TRADE AND PAYMENTS
89. U.S. balance of payments, Q (bil. dol.|
a. liquidity balance basis
b. Official settlements basis
88. Merchandise trade balance (bi. dol.; MCD moving avg.-4-term)
§4
i 'H®w t@
24for FRASER
Digitized
SS
§6
Si
§9
sot page 43.
6©
61
beef
Chart 1A
bed
BASIC DATA
MAY 1968
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 to PRESENT-Continued
g
Series Unclassified by Cyclical Timing-Continued
2H. FOREIGN TRADE AND PAYMENTS-Continued
(Nov.] (Oct.)
P
T
(July] (Aug.)
P
T
(July) (Apr.)
P T
Way) (Feb.)
P T
86. Exports, exc. military aid (bit. do!.;
3.5-
2.5-
861. Export orders, durables exc. motor vehicles
,J
(Ml dot,; MCD moving avg.~~6-termf =
$ /i
* -
862. Export orders, nonelectrical machinery
(index: 1957-59=100; MCD moving"avg.--4-term)
87. General imports (bil dol.; MCD moving avg;-^-temrf
Ill
52
i.
gC(ol 2/
25
Chart 1A
BASIC DATA
MAY 1963
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 to PRESENT-Continued
bed
Series Unclassified by Cyclical Timing-Continued
3CTI. FEDERAL GOVERNMENT ACTIVITIES
(Nov.) (Oct.)
P
T
(July) (Apr.)
(Aug.)
T
P
(May) (Feb.,
T
95, FeJ. surplus or
bil. dol.)
951 OH. receipts, national income and product acct, Q (ann, ratie, bM. dol.
952. Fed. expenditure, national income and product acct., Q (am rate, by. dol.
SO
See '
51
S2
53
54
59
56
57
58
59
i to i@ad Charts 1 and 2/ page 4. Cerent data for these series are shown m page 44.
26for FRASER
Digitized
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
1068
Chart 1A
bed
BASIC DATA
MAY 1968
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 to PRESENT-Continued g
Series Unclassified by Cyclical Timing-Continued
SHI. FEDERAL GOVERNMENT ACTIVITIES-Continued
(Nov.) (Oet.l
P I
(July) (Aug.)
P
I
(Juty (Apr.)
(Mai) (Feb.)
^
90. Defense Dept. oblig., procurement (bit. do).; MCD moving avg.-6-term)
99TNew orders, defense products
raausTi1en^for;llllM*movtng
avf^ft^emi]*
contract dwaiUs in U.S. [bil apl.; MCD
4-
2-
1948
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
See 'How to Read Charts 1 and ;V page 4. Current data for these series are shown on page 44.
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
1968
27
Chart 1A
BASIC DATA
MAY 1£68
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948
to PRESENT-Continued
bed
Series Unclassified by Cyclical Timing and Economic Process
(July) (Aug.)
(Nov.) {Oct.)
P
T
P
(July) (Apr.)
P T
T
(May) |F«b.j
P T
101)
S3
too. kadi, ttltput to capacity, mfg., U (percemp
90
83.
KC
T51 r RatlbTmveSflileslo sales, mTg. and trade
852. Ratio, unfilled orders to shipments,
WTrs7 diir. goods Indus;
1153. Ratio, proJueloioTbusiness^[equipment to
flmter
51
28for FRASER
Digitized
§2
S3
S4
55
Si
S7
. toost ^Qto fer ttoso ssrtes are ste@wi ess ^age <
^
1968
Chart 1A
bed
BASIC DATA
MAY 1968
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 to PRESENT-Continued
Series Unclassified by Cyclical Timing and Economic Process-Continued
(July) (Aug.)
(Nov.) (Oct.)
P
T
P
(July] (Apr.)
P T
T
(May) [Feb.)
P T
854, Ratio, personal saving to disposable personal income, Q
O.OB <
855. Ratio, nonagri. job openings unfilled to
number of persons unemployed
D
856. Ratio, avg. hourly earnings of prod, workers in mfg.
to consumer prices (index: 1957-59=100)
857. Vacancy rate in total rental housing, Q (percent)
1948
49
90
5E
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
See 'How te iesd Shafts 1 and ' page 4. Current data far ttese series m sbGWfl on pagg 45.
29
Chart IB
BASIC DATA
btd
MAY 1963
SERIES FOR INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS
FROM 1948 to PRESENT
Industrial Production Indexes
(1957-59=100)
180 liH
140 <
47. United States
120J
—) »«j
-H mi ^
121. OECD European countries
1S48
49
§0
51
52
$®@ 'How t@ Read Charts 1 and 'I.: page 4.
Digitized
30for FRASER
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
Current data for these series are shown on page 46.
61
63
63
64
65
66
6?
196ft
Chart IB
bed
BASIC DATA
MAY 1968
SERIES FOR INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS g
FROM 1948 to PRESENT-Continued
Consumer Price Indexes
(1957-59=100)
1948 49
SO
51
§2
See low to Read Charts 1 and 2,' p&gis 4.
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
Current data for these scries are shown on page 47.
62
S3
31
Chart IB
BASIC DATA
MAY 1968
SERIES FOR INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS
FROM 1948 to PRESENT-Continued
Stock Price Indexes
(1957-59=100)
49
SO
SI
ga
53
54
95
'Haw t® Bias! Charts l anil 2; page 4. Gyrraut data for these
Digitized for
32 FRASER
96
57
58
59
are sttowra on page 48.
SO
61
62
63
64
65
67
1368
beef
Table 2A
bed
BASIC DATA
MAY 1968
LATEST DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES
Leading Indicators
Major
Economic Process
EMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT
FIXED CAPITAL INVESTMENT
Minor
Economic Process
Marginal Employment Adjustments
Formation of Business
Enterprises
Year
and
month
1966
January
February
March
*1. Average
workweek of
production
workers,
manufacturing
*30. Nonagricultural placements,
all industries
2. Accession
rate, manufacturing
(Hours)
(Thous.)
(Per 100 employees)
41.4
B> 41.6
41.5
5. Average
weekly initial
claims for
unemployment
insurance, State
programs1
(Thous.)
3. Layoff rate,
manufacturing
*38. Index of net
business formation
13. Number of new
business incorporations
(Per 100 employees)
(1957-59=100)
(Number)
1.2
1.2
1.1
109.1
109.6
109.6
18,087
17,451
17,266
185
186
1.2
1.1
1.3
107.6
106.8
106.2
17,057
16,644
16,577
570
§£> 600
589
4.9
4.9
222
219
5.1
182
April
May
June
41.5
41.4
41.3
522
513
567
4.9
5.1
B> 5.2
July
August
September
41.2
41.4
41.4
542
543
509
4.7
5.1
4.9
230
196
183
1.7
1.1
1.1
104.8
103.9
102.7
16 , 074
16,343
15,764
October
November
December
41.3
41.3
41.0
533
530 :
524
5.1
4.8
4.6
186
194
212
1.1
1.2
1.3
103.3
100.6
101.4
16,233
16,206
16,583
January
February
March
41. 0
40.3
40.4
534
519
497
4.6
4.3
4.1
203
242
256
1.4
1.5
1.7
102.2
103.2
103.3
16,703
15,987
16,244
April
May
June
40.5
40.3
40.3
474
448
487
4.2
4.6
4.6
263
234
225
1.5
1.4
1.4
103.7
105.0
108.1
16,760
17,627
17,799
July
August
September
40.4.
40.7
40.3
484
436
480
4.2
4.3
4.3
261
215
209
1.6
1.1
1.3
108.4
110,7
110.3
16,300
17,674
18,118
October
November
December
1968
40.7
40.8
40.7
474
476
479
4.7
4.5
4.4
209
201
198
1.3
1.2
110.6
112.7
113.8
IB, 000
K> 18,403
18,168
January
February
March
40.2
40.7
40-7
498
479
494
4.5
4.5
p4.0
214
199
188 1
1.4
rl.4
Pl.3
113.5
17,223
18,014
17,974
P455
CNA)
190
(NA)
g> 179
1967
P40.4
April
May
June
0> 1.1
*>S$:i
CNA)
(NA)
July
August
September
October
November
December
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by®. Current high values are indicated by[FD>; for series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3, 5, 14, 39, 40, 43, 45, 93, and 502), current low values are indicated by
I3> . Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. Series preceded by
an asterisk (*)are included in the 19S6 NBER "short list" of indicators. The,V indicates revised; V, preliminary; V, estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA11, not available.
exclude Puerto Rico which is included in figures 'published by source agency.
33
Table 2A
BASIC DATA
MAY 1968
LATEST DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES-Continued
bed
Leading Indicators—Continued
Major
Economic Process
FIXED CAPITAL INVESTMENT -۩n.
Minor
Economic Process
New Investment Commitments
*6. Value of
manufacturers'
new orders,
durable goods
industries
Year
and
month
(Bil.dol.)
*10. Contracts
94. Index of
and orders for
construction
contracts, total plant and equipment
value
(1957-59=100)
(Bil.dol.)
11. Newly approved capital
appropriations,
1,000 manufacturing corporations
(Bil.dol.)
1966
January
February
March
23.58
23.74-
24, 89
132
157
158
5.46
5.71
5.66
6! 34
April
May
June
24.20
24.2#
24-59
161
156
147
5.91
5.77
5.57
|£> 6.69
July
August
September
24-3?
147
139
146
6.10
5.87
B>6.28
October
November
December
24.24
23.0,3
23.96
139
130
133
22.07
22.33
32.06
1967
January
February
March, . .
23,5:
20 , 27
.
24. Value of
manufacturers1
new orders, machinery and
equipment industries
(Bil.dol.)
9. Construction
contracts, commercial and
industrial
buildings
7. New private *29. Index of
nonfarm housing new private
units started-1 housing units authorized by local2
building permits
(Mil. sq.ft.
floor space)
(Ann,, rate, thojs.) (1957-59 = 100)
4.58
4.59
62.29
B> 70.42
67.99
1,403
:.,3m
111.9
106.4
112.1
4. 79
4.84
4-75
68.28
64,00
65*85
:.,3'*
1,2-3;'
1,161
105.3
97.4
84.7
5.97
|>5.09
4.81
4.91
63.54
63,52
64,40
1 t (VO
],0£W
),0?.0
82.1
75.2
65.1
5.76
5.52
5.45
4. 62
4.65
4.60
54.76
64.42
60.21
82,;
5.96
63.4
63.4
67.1
126
1.43
149
5.40
5.34
5.50
4.54
4.24
4.32
49.09
57.84
56.14
i,r?J
5^76
1 ,099
' f )t. /
4.45
:. , 400
9 '""3
93 ' )
1,132
1,C67
83.1,
78.9
81.9
90.7
91.1
97.9
April
May
June
32.23
23.86
24.26 •
138
154
164
5.37
5.55
5.82
5^83
4.44
4.61
4.79
5B.27
54.72
62.30
July
August
September
23.72
23.73
23.42
149
165
16 8
5.72
6.16
5.74
5. *96
4.85
5.06
4.66
56.72
61.66
60.45
October
November
December
23.38
53.54
g> 26.49
16 a
171
5.96
5.84
5.76
r^'.Bl
4.61
4.79
4. S3
58.42
63.17
64.08
5.90
r5.62
rS.90
P5.37
4.87
r4.49
r4.6l
64.51
61.39
66.61
3,*l;n
-:!,*1<V9
:-Vlf8
9? „ 2
120.0
rm.4
p4.82
47.09
7l.,';VO
pH4.4
1968
January
February
March
April
May
June
24.77
r24.83
r26.ll
P25.A2
166
159
156
B> 176
146
P5.54
-
» <-.* :• ' «
:,au
: ,r 6
V*n
.1,'1.T5
l,/+7«
V>rv
"I,;?"-';
96.4
99.4
102.3
106.9
102.2
116.7
July
August
September
October
November
December
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by©. Current high values are indicated byJED>; for series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3,5,14, 39, 40, 43, 45, 93, and 502), current"low values are indicated by
H> . Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. Series preceded by
an asterisk (*) are included in the 1966 NBER "short list" of indicators. The V indicates revised; "p", preliminary; V, estimated; "a", anticipated: and "NA", not available.
Hligh value (1,833) w^s reached in October 1963.
High value (124.6) was reached in February 1964.
2
Digitized for34
FRASER
Table 2A
bed
BASIC DATA
MAY 1968
LATEST DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES-Continued
Leading Indicators-Continued
Major
Economic Process
INVENTORIES AND INVENTORY INVESTMENT
Minor
Economic Process
inventory investment and Purchasing
Year
and
month
26. Production
20. Change in
37. Purchased ma21. Change in
*31. Change in
materials, perbook value of
terials, percent of
business invenbook value of
cent of compamanufacturers*
companies reporttories after valmanufacturing
inventories of
nies reporting
invenand trade inven- ing higher
uation adjust1
commitments 6C
tories
tories, total
materials and
ment, all indusdays or longer©
supplies2
tries
(Ann. rate, bil.dol.) (Ann. rate, bil.dol.) (Percent reporting) (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) (Percent reporting)
32. Vendor performance, percent of
companies reporting
slower deliveries®
25. Change in
unfilled orders,
durable goods
industries
(Percent reporting)
(Bil.dol.)
1966
January
February
March
+9.9 i
April
May
June
+14.0
July
August
September
+11.4
October
November
December
1967
January
February
March
:
§C> +13^5
:
+8.4
+11.6
+13.2
49
47
52
+1.1
+1.1
+13.0
+18.1
+16.5
i
+13.3
+15.5
+9.6
+18.2
+18.4 1
|JE>+19.8
+0.8 -
68
67
68
E> 86
51
53
54
+4.1
+3.5
+3.6
69
70
72
82
75
69
+1.49
+1.36
+1.70
58
57
53
+1.1
+ 5.3
+3.3
73
73
72
70
73
72
+1.34
+0.64
0>+2.30
56
55
55
+1.3
+2,2
+1.6
0> 75
73
70
70
64
57
+0.79
-0.21
+0.24
74
+1 . 27
+1.31
+1.65
+7.1
+12.9
+2.2
+3.9
48
45
46
+2.5
-1.0
-0.3
72
67
68
43
51
38
-0.99
-0.30
-1.07
April
May
June
+0.5
+3.2
+1.3
-4.6
37
40
43
+0.9
-1.0
-1.4
67
66
68
39
36
38
-0.04
+0.96
+1.21
July
August
September
+3.S
-+3.7
+8.9
-0.7
40
42
44
-0.8
+2.2
-1.0
61
66
61
41
43
44
+0.52
+0.09
+0.47
+9.2
+5.7
+12.8
+16.9
45
46
54
-0.2
+0.7
0.0
62
63
64
50
51
48
+1.07
+0.06
+1.20
r+2.7
+7.2
r+3.4
P+2.3
55
53
52
+0.3
r-0.2
p-0.7
64
61
64
50
55
54
-0.46
r+0.18
r+0.94
(NA)
51
55
(NA)
68
64
52
p+0.51
October
November
December
1968
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appearito contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by®. Current high values are indicated by fi>; for series that move counter to movements in general busjness activity (series 3, 5,14, 39, 40, 43, 45, 93, and 502), current low values are indicated by
B> . Series numbers are for identification only and do not
reflect series,relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. Series preceded by
an asterisk (*)are included in the 1966 NBER "short list11 of indicators. The V indicates revised; "p", preliminary; V, estimated; "a" anticipated; and "NA", not available.
value (63) was reached in November 1964.
High value (+6.6) iras reached in December 1961.
2
35
Table 2A
BASIC DATA
MAY 1968
LATEST DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES-Continued
bed
Leading Indicators— Continued
Major
Economic (Process
Minor
Economic Process
PRICES, COSTS, AND PROFITS
Sensitive Commodity
Price$
Stock Prices
*23. Index of 'industrial materials prices©
*19. Index of stock
prices, 500 common
stocks®
*16. Corporate profits
after taxes
22, Ratio of profits to
income originating,
corporate, all industries
18. Profits (before
taxes) per dollar of
sales, all manufacturing corporations;
*17. Ratio, price to
unit labor cost index,
manufacturing
(1957-59-100)
(1941-43 = 10)
(Ann. rate, bil. dol.)
(Percent)
(Cents)
(1957-59-100)
Year
and
month
1966
January
February
March
120.5
122.9
B> 123.5
93.32
92.69
April
May
June
121.5
118.3
118.4
July
August
September
Profits and Profit Margins
49 '.2
B>13*.5
B>9,"a
105.1
105.1
105.1
91.60
86.78
86.06
49 '.2
13.2
9.' 3
304. 4
105.1
10^.6
118.8
111.7
108.9
85. 84
BO. 65
77.81
49 '.4
13*.6
9'.?
g> 105.2
104.5
104,2
October..,
November
December
1967
January
February
March
106.3
1C 5. 9
105.8
77.13
BO. 99
81.33
49!3
12*. 6
9.0
103.9
103.0
101.1
106. ft
105.2
102.5
84.45
87.36
89.42
46.5
12.0
H,^
101 .5
1.11.0
100.7
April
May
June...
100.1
99.6
99.*:
90.96
92.59
91.43
46^5
11 i9
f*.2
88. as
ion. 8
July
August
September
9B.3
98.1
97 . 8
93.01
94.49
g> 95.81
47.1
11. *7
?u
October
November
December
1968
January.
1 February
March
97.7
99.1
100. 1
95.66
92.66
95.30
';0.1
12.2
3.4
99 . *$
••/?.'»
;ioo.:
95.04
90.75
H9.Q9
g> P$2.2
98. '1
96.3
95.67
^97. 10
April
May
June
X
100.3
99 . 8
101.2
9'".* . ^
99.2
qo^/
p!2.5
(MJO
Clt)/.
10: V9'). 6
r9 ; >.?
r9r').':»
pQQ.2
July
August
September
October
November
December
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by®. Current high values are indicated by (JC>; for series that mov$ counter to movements in general business activity (series 3, 5, 14, 39, 40, 43, 45, 93, and 502), current low values are indicated by
. Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. Series preceded by
an asterisk
terisk ((*) are included in the 1066 NBER "short list* of indicators. The V indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
1
Average
3
for May 21, 22, and 23.
Average for May 22, 23,, and 24.
36
Table 2A
bed
BASIC DATA
MAY 1968
LATEST DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES-Continued
Leading Indicators— Continued
Major
Economic Process
MONEY AND CREDIT
Minor
Economic Process
Flows of Money and Credit
98. Change in
money supply
and time
deposits
Year
and
month
(Ann. rater
percent)
1966
January
February
March
85. Change in
;U.S. money
supply
33. Net change *113. Net change
in mortgage debt in consumer
held by fin. inst. installment
debt 2
and life insurance companies
(Ann. rate,
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
bil.dol.)
(Ann. rate,
percent)
Credit Difficulties
112. Change in
business loans
110. Total private borrowing
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
(Ann. rate,
mil. dot.)
14. Current lia- 39. Delinquency
bilities of busi- rate, 30 days
ness failures 3 and over, total
installment loans
(Mil.dol.)
+6.48
+4.56
+9.12
+7.92
+2.88
+6.36
+23.81
+21.85
+22.87
+7.16
+6,46
+7.79
+14.10
+6.24
+8.76
70,500
111.67
94.59
98.73
+12.36
+4.80
+7.80
+9.24
-2.16
+2.88
+20.77
+17.76
+15.22
+6.37
+5.92
+6.59
+S.50
+9.58
+17.70
73,908 .
106.9.3
92.41
111.23
July
August
September
+3.72
+5.16
+3.36
-4.92
+1.44
+2.88
+12.54
+12.68
+11.40
+6.77
+7.22
+5.70
B>+aai
+3.28
+0.67
58,004
62.84
159.29
128.77
October
November
December
-0.72
-0.72
+5.52
-2.76
+4.56
+5.33
+3.85
+5.93
+2.63
+0.14
45,748
+2.16
+9.96
+9.66
+6.86
128.02
116.90
194,09
+7.68
+14.16
B>+15.00
-0.72
+8.40
+11.16
+9,40
+11.78
r+11.47
+3.36
+2.59
+3.17
+7. 04
+0.86
+6.83
r60,804
118.61
131.23
108.87
+11.64
+15.60
+18.11
+2.56
+2.32
+3.50
+9.25
+1.63
+8.09
r 61, 864
110,80
93-00
87.20
April
May ...
June.
. ..
1967
January .
February
March
0.00
April
May
June
+5.64
+13.08
+14*28
July
August . . . .
September
+13.44
+12.96
+6.12
+11.52
+8.04
+0.72
+14.11
+22.82
+20.74
+2.70
+4.13
+3.41
+16.09
-9.19
-2.15
r66,044
October
, .
November
December
1968
+10,08
+8.64
+5.28
+ 7.32
+6.00
+2.04
+21.02
+22.07
+19.87
+3.73
+5.02
+4.60
+5.36
+2.66
+8.39
(J>r7&?936
+3.00
+4.20
+8.16
+6.60
+4.78
+6.79
+6.79
+12.53
-2.28
+4.07
p65,564
+5.88
+18,49
+19.20
p+17.96
p+5.16
p+8,52
(NA)
p+19.64
January
February
March
April
May
June
-2.76
0>+12.48 !
+11.64
0,00
;
(NA)
76.85
91.13
91.29
-
95 . 81
$5.55
192.56
116.62
81.06
80.46
80.43
(Percent)
1.73
1.78
l!?6
l!?6
1.79
1.75
3.. 82
1.90
1.72
l!65
1.66
1.74
B>i.*5i
(NA)
July
August
September
October
November
December
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by®. Current high values are indicated by[?D>; for series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3, 5, 14, 39, 40, 43, 45, 93, and 502), current low values are indicated by
Gt>-. Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. Series preceded by
an asterisk (*) are included in the 1966 NBER "shortlist" of indicators. The V indicates revised; "p", preliminary; V, estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
^igh value (24.02) was reached in October 1963.
2
High value (+8.94) was reached in April 1965.
3
High value (52.86) was reached in August 1963.
37
Table 2A
BASIC DATA
MAY 196tt
LATEST DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES-Continued
bed
Roughly Coincident indicators
Maim
Economic Process
EMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT
Mm@r
Economic Process
Year
and
month
301. Nonagricultural job openings unfilled
46. Index of
help-wanted
advertising in
newspapers
(Thous.)
(1957-59-100)
1966
January
February
March
3B1
40}
425
Comprehensive UnemployM^nti
C©mprelienslve Employment
Jab Vacancies
184
1.91
201
511. Man-hours
in nonagricultural
establishments
(Ann. rate, bit.
man-hours)
*41. Number of
employees in
nonagricultural
establishments
42. Total non- .
agricultural
employment,
labor force
survey
*43. Unemployment rate, total
45. Average
weekly insured
unemployment
rate, State1
programs
40. Unemployment rate,
married males
(Thous.)
(Thous,)
(Percent)
(Percent)
(Percent)
3.9
126.73
127.89
128.71
62,503
62,889
63 , 296
63,3,85
68,179
68,192
3.7
3.8
*? , 6
? . (';
" .9
2 , "i
" .9
o
April
May
june
431
im
63,42v
63,616
64,069
68,375
68,,V8i*
68,772
3.7
3.9
3.8
l.rt
T8f>
184
128.23
128.27
129.52
.% . i
426
424
2.1
•i > t
l.J*
July
August
September
42 B
186
189
189
129.45
130.00
129. H6
64,1^0
64,345
64,394
68,943
69,230
69,264
3. a
2 /
IJ /
?.o
2 . 'i
l.f«
41 4
404
193
194
193
130.52
131.11
131.13
64,694
65,014
65,251
69,515
69,91f»
69,*2S
3.6
3.7
1967
January
February
March
392
370
362
1H9
190
184
132.15
131.57
131.67
65,564
65,692
65,749
70,104
70,187
69,964
3.7
3.7
3.7
April
May
June
31O
3'il
3!>l
181
174
171
131.08
130.89
13.1. HO
65,653
65,639
65,903
70,096
69,822
70,430
3.7
3.9
3.9
July
August
September
344
350
373
169
180
IBS
131.62
132.74
132.56
65,939
66,190
66,055
70,631
70,708
70,941
3.9
3.8
4.1
October , . .
November „
December
360
352
343
186
187
190
132.35
134.37
134. C6
66,243
66, ^l
67,126
71,017
71,166
71,361
4.3
3.B
3.7
1968
January
February
March
356
360
36 B
184
193
|£> r202
133.05
Gr>rl35.26
c
^ rl35.00
67,137
67,712
r67,B!3
71,164
71,604
g^ 71,7BB
p370
pi 88
pl,34.7B
@>p67,921
71,656
424
B> M*
October
November
December
April
May
June
429
3.8
3. a
3. a
3. 5
3.7
3.6
B>3.5
^•TV
2. H
It . 1
i: . t\.
*-"'. . ^ ^
2.7
2.6
2 .ij
*> ^
2.4
l.n
1.9
l.M
1.^
1.8
1 .7
1.7
1 .9
1 .9
1.9
1.8
1 ."
1,8
;> t p
1 .<)
1 . r~?
1 .7
-. 3
l.h
1^v
,?.3
;-•
-3
= .1
B>'.*
July
August
September
October
November
December
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by®. Curient high values are indicated by [jj>; for series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3 t 5 ( 14,39,40, 43, 45, 93, and 502), current low values are indicated by
E> . Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown
on the back cover. Series preceded by
an asterisk (*) are included in the 1966 NBER "short list" of indicators. The V indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e". estimated; uaf, anticipated; and "NA* not available.
x
t)ata exclude Puerto Rieo which is included in figures published by source agency.
38
Table 2A
free/
BASIC DATA
MAY 1968
LATEST DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES-Continued
Roughly Coincident Indicators— Continued
Major
Economic Process
PRODUCTION, INCOME, CONSUMPTION, AND TRADE
Minor
Econ@mk Process
Year
and
month
1966
January
February
March
Comprehensive Producta
Comprehensive Income
49. Gross national product
in current dollars
*50. Gross national product
in 1958 dollars
*47. Index of industrial production
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(1957-59-100)
*52. Persona!
income
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
Comprehensive ConsumptfM and Trade
53. Wages and
*816. Manufac- 57. Final sales
salaries in min- turing and trade (series 49 minus
series 21)
ing, manufactur- sales
ing, and construction
(Ann. rate,
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Mi!, dol.)
bil. dol.)
*54. Sales of
retail stores
(Mil. dol.)
725*. 9
645.4
150.7
152.4
153.8
563.7
567.4
572.3
149.4
151.5
153.4
84,679
84,517
86,939
716.0
25,081
2,5,049
25,536
April
May
June
736.7
649/3
153.9
155.4
156.5
574.7
576.1
581.1
154.0
155.0
156.8
85,434
85,365
86,917
722.6
24,949
24,475
25,394
July
August
September
74,8. 8
654-* 8
157.2
157,81.58.1
584.7
589.1
594.1
156.9
158.5
159.5
86,611
86,939
86,734
737.4
25,362
25,572
25,703
October
November
December
762.1
661 !i
159.4
159.1
159.5
597.5
602.1
605.0
160.5
161.3
162.1
86,983
86,528
87,690
743^6
25,530
25,610
25,368
January
February
March
766." 3
660 ! 7
158.2
156.6
156.4
610.4
612.6
615.6
163.3
162.4
162.7
87,182
r86,133
r 87, 242
759.2
25,687
25,470
25,739
April
May
June
775.1
664.7
156.5
155.6
155.6
616.5
618.2
622.6
162.2
161.5
162.4
r 86, 643
r 87, 286
r88,244
774.' 6
25,918
25,89^
26,544
July
August
September
791.2
672.0
156.6
158.1
156.8
627.0
631.6
634.4
163.4
165.2
165.5
r88,454
r68,768
r88,323
787.4
26,422
26,732
807.3
679 1-6
156,9
159.5
162.0
635.9
642.4
649.3
165.2
168.4
170.4
r 87, 196
rS9,6l2
r92,057
798.1
26,089
26,431
26,470
0> 689.'7
161.2
riei.9
rl62.7
650.9
r659.4
r666.5
170.3
173.9
r!74.5
r92,544
r92,595
|»C>P9^327
§£>pl62.7
B>p670.1..
0>pl75.2
1967
October
November
December
26,444
1968
January
February
March
April
May
June
(NA)
B>r82i!6
27,065
r 27, 399
g>r28,129
p27,640
July
August
September
October
November
December
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by®. Current high values are indicated by[3>*; for series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3 , 5 , 1 4 , 39, 40, 43, 45, 93, and 502), current low values are indicated by
B> . Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. Series preceded by
an asterisk (*)are included in the 1966 NBER "short list" of indicators. The *r" indicates revised; V, preliminary; V, estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA" not available.
39
Table 2A
BASIC DATA
MAY 1968
bed
LATEST DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES-Continued
Roughly Coincident Indicators— Continued
Major
Economic Process
FIXED CAPITAL
INVESTMENT
PRICES, COSTS, AND
PROFITS
Minor
Economic Process
Backlog of Investment
Commitments
Comprehensive Wholesale
Prices
Year
and
month
96. Manufacturers' unfilled
orders, durable
goods industries
97. Backlog
of capital
appropriations, manufacturing
(Bil.dol.)
(Bil.dol.)
1966
January
February
March
63.MCJ
65.11
66.76
April
May
June
68.25
69 . 61
71.31
July
August,
September
72. . 65
73.39
70.59
October
November
December
1967
January
February
March
7 '^.4 3
70.13
74.06
April
May
June
74.02
74.97
76.18
July
August.
September
76.71
76. HO
77.27
76.38
76.1.7
76.42
I October
November
December
1968
January
February .
March
April
May
June
7H.34
7^.4.0
79.60
79.14
r79.32
rK0.26
H>P^O.?7
55. Index of
wholesale
prices, industrial commodities ©
58. Index of
wholesale
prices, manufactured
goods ®
(1957-59=100) (1957-59-100)
MONEY AND CREDIT
Bank
Reserves
Money Market Interest Ratus
93. Free
reserves ®
114. Treasury
bill rate©
116. Corporate bond
yields ®
(Mil.dol.)
(Percent)
(Percent)
115. Treasity 117. Municipal
bond yields @ bond yields®
(Percent)
(Percent)
'19! 33
303.5
103.8
104.0
104.4
104.9
105.0
-44
-107
-246
4.60
4.67
4.63
4.93
•j.09
•3.33
^.43
^.61
4.63
3.52
3.64
3.72
105.1
105.5
105.6
-26ft
-352
-352
4.63
4.64
4.54
S3*
'>. ^
/,.':!)
/* . f '7
20.56
104.3
104.7
104.9
s!67
/;.f^
3. Si'
3,6 r '
3 . 77
§£>-20.77
100.2
105.2
10 f ).2
1,06.0
106.4
106.4
-362
-390
-368
4.36
4.93
'..36
5.81
6.04
6.14
4 . r ">
4 . ^0
4.79
3.9 f '
i.L?
4.1?
1,06.3
106.2
106.2
g> -431
-222
-165
g> ^.39
'.i.34
5.Q1
6.04
6.31
^.70
4/'-4
• 4 .*'"';
3.94
3.^
20.7?
1 vo
10*.1'V .5
105. a
20. 40
106.4
106.4
106.3
-16
-4
4236
4.76
4.V?
4.29
S.S3
n Vi
5.'j*.
4 .40
106.0
106.0
3.V,
1.5?
3.0'-.
106.2
106.3
106.6
t-17'j
4269
4297
3.8f>
3.64
1.4«
*i . r><)
l>.9r
.1 . ; 1
?0 . 3?
106.0
106.0
106.0
6.0fr
.1 . -'6
3.60
3.89
3.96
106. a
4-272
•+29 ft
4268
4.31
/,2B
* .45
6.nr
tS.T6.3.:
4. W
A .c'f-
i?D.63
106. D
106.3
106.5
1.06. a
106.8
107.1
f
\ QP
f
r?,0.6l
107.1
107.2
107.6
-a 60
107.1
107.4
4270
-t-107
* . >;9
< '.76
5.01
pW.53
107.8
10rt.3
108.6
108.1
108.6
108.9
+ 144
rf38
r-315
4/77
'3,14
6 , ^(
fi£>- ina.a
pioa.6
|J>109.0
p-420
S.,36
6 . 71'}
s.og
/t t
Kin
:
6 . '; *
6.^7
B> 6.9.?
6. -7
r
6, 7
v
R>fi^
'j.'jc*-.U'
:
..K
3.«fi
4.02
3.99
4.1?
4 . 30
4 . 34
4.4?
/..'3I
B>-'^
/,
'5 11'
4.34
July
August
September
October
November
December
NOTE; Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by©. Cuuent high values are indicated by[B>; for series that move; counter to movements in general business activity (series 3, 5,14, 39, 40, 43, 45, 93, and 502), current low vdues are indicated by
S> . Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. Series
preceded by
an asterisk (*) are included in the 1966 NBER "short list" of indicators. The V indicates revised; "p", preliminary; V, estimated; "af, anticipated; and "NAr. not available.
40
Table 2A
bed
BASIC DATA
MAY 1968
LATEST DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES-Continued
Lagging Indicators
Major
Economic Process
EMPLOYMENT AND
UNEMPLOYMENT
FIXED CAPITAL INVESTMENT
INVENTORIES AND INVENTORY INVESTMENT
Minor
Economic Process
Long-Duration
Unemployment
Investment Expenditures
Inventories
Year
and
month
*502. Unemployment rate,
persons unemployed 15
weeks and over
*61. Business expenditures on new plant and
equipment, total
505. Machinery and equipment sales and business
construction expenditures
(Percent)
(Ann. rate, bil.dol.)
(Ann. rate, bil.dol.)
*71. Manufacturing and
trade inventories, book
value
65. Manufacturers1 inventories of finished goods,
book value
(Bil.dol.)
(Bil.dol.)
1966
January
February
March
0.8
0.8
0.8
53] oo
65.13
•63.91
66.58
121.30
122.26
123.36
23.20
23.37
23.57
April
May
June
0.3
0.7
0.6
60! io
65.20
65.30
66.18
124.45
125.95
127.33
23.60
23. B4
23.92
July
August
September
0.6
0.6
0.6
61.25
68. 41
68.19
68.68
128.43
129.73
130.53
24.24
24.39
24.59
October
November
December
1967
January
February
March
0.7
0.6
0.6
g>62'.80
69.13
68.12
68.56
132.05
133.58
135.23
24.77
25.27
25.71
0.6
0.6
0.6
61*. 65
70.44
69.50
68.85
136,30
136.49
136.82
April
May
June
0.6
0.6
0.6
61^50
66.79
67.56
68.30
137.08
137.19
136.80
26.37
27,02
26.76
July
August
September.
0.6
0.6
0.6 ;
60.90
70.20
69.75
70.52
137.11
137.85
137.79
26.92
27.04
26,98
October
November
December
1968
January
February
March
0.6
0.6
0.6
62 '.70
68.95
69.97
72.25
138.27
139.33
140.7/4
26.92
27.15
27.^7
0.6
0.6
0.6
a64.80
B> 73.18
r72.25
p73.17
141.34
rUl-62
g>pU1.81
27.70
r27.B5
g> p28.06
April
May
June
\
(NA)
B>0.5
(NA)
•
26.13
26.40
26,;;8
(NA)
a64.'30
July
August
September
October
November
December
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by®. Current high values are indicated by B£>; for series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3, 5, 14, 39, 40, 43, 45, 93, and 502), current low values are indicated by
Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. Series preceded by
risk {*)are iincluded in the 1966 NBER "short list" of indicators. The V indicates revised; wp", preliminary; "e", estimated; "af, anticipated; and "NAr not available.
?n asterisk
41
Table 2A
BASIC DATA
MAY 1968
bed
LATEST DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES-Continued
Lagging Indicators- Continued
Major
Economic Process
PRICE, COSTTS, AND PROFITS
Miner
Economic Process
Unit Labor Costs
Year
and
month
MONEY m® CRIOIT
Interest Rotes ci Busing loons
and Mcrtgagns
Outstanding Debt
68. Labor cost (cur.
dol.) per unit of gross
product (1$8 dol.),
nonfinancial corporations
*62. Index of labor
cost per unit of output, manufacturing
66. Consumer installment debt
*72. Commercial and
industrial loans outstanding, weekly
reporting large
commercial banks
*67. Bank rates on
short-term business1
loans, 35 cities (uD
118. Mortgage yields,
residential©
(Dollars)
(1957-59 - 100)
(Mil. dol.)
(Mil. dol.)
(Percent)
(Percent)
1966
January . .
February
March...
0 . 670
April . ..„
May
June
0.679
July.....
August
September
Q.6H7
October
November
December
0,693
99.3
99. H
99.9
67,920
68,458
69,107
53,255
53,747
54,522
100.7
69,638
70,131
70,680
55,118
56,134
57,874
102.1
71,244
71,846
72,321
59,380
59,014
59,381
102.3
103.1
103.0
72,701
73»U5
73,466
59,911
60,042
59,763
100.4
101.0
100. 8
101. a
•*.55
5.70
(MA)
6.00
fj ^ $p
(NA)
6.32
6.V>
(Gc
6.51
f ,5H
(..61
631.
(NA)
6. HI
6.77
1967
January
February
March
0,711
104.6
105.3
105.6
73,746
73,962
74,226
60,875
60,525
61,1,67
fc!n
C-..6?.
6.46
6. .35
April
May
June
0,713
105.4
106.0
106.8
74,439
74,632
74,924
62,407
61,898
63,326
9.0'i
6.29
6.44
6. VI.
July
August
September
0.722
106.6
107.0
108. 0
75,149
75,493
75,777
64,309
62,944
63,309
'j.9'»
6 A3
6 . 60
(.61
October
November
December
0.725
107.7
107.7
107.1
76,083
76,506
76,889
63,592
63,797
64,^45
§C>p0.7.?4
108.5
r!09.5
rlQ9.4
77,287
77,853
g> 78, U9
65,518
65,450
65,789
1968
January
February
March
April
May
June
g>pl09.9
(NA)
f£>p67,S44
(
;.%
E> 6.'.V»
(j,65
6.77
6.ftl
6.81
6.7f*
6.83
B>6.94
July
August
September
October
November
December
NOTE; Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by®. Crront high values are indicated by y£>; for series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3,5,14, 39, 40, 43, 45, 93, and 502), current low values are indicated by
K>-. Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back covor. Series preceded by
an asterisk (*) are included in the 1966 NBER "short list" of indicators. The V indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; *f, anticipated; and "NA", not available.
^Prior to 1967, data are based on 19 cities and refer to the last month of the quarter.
42
Table 2A
bed
BASIC DATA
LATEST DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES-Continued
MAY 1968
Series Unclassified by Cyclical Timing
Major
Economic Process
PRICES, COSTS,
AND PROFITS
FOREIGM TRADE AND PAYMENTS
Minor
Economic Process
Comprehensive
Mail Prices
Foreign Trade and Payments
81. Index of consumer prices©
Year
and
month
89. Excess of receipts (+)or
payments (-) in U.S. balance
of payments
a. Liquidity
balance basis
(1957-59 = 100)
(Mil.dol.)
b. Official
settlements
basis
(Mil. dol.)
88. Merchandise
trade balance
(series 86 minus
series 87)
86. Exports, excluding military
aid shipments,
total
(Mil. doL)
(Mil.dol.)
862. Index of
861. Manufacturers' new orders
export orders,
for export, durable nonelectrical
machinery
goods except
motor vehicles
and parts ©
(Mil. dol.)
(1957-59 = 100)
87. General
imports, total
(Mil.dol.)
1966
January
February
March
111.0
111.6
112.0
,-651
-443 ,
+346.6
+352,4
+474.4
<2,264.4
2,375,9
2,554.2
852
849
904
237
201
227
1,917.8
2,023.5
2,079.8
April
May
June
112.5
112.6
112.9
-122
-d75
+241.3
+333.9
+345.7
2,354,3
•2,415.5
2,487.0
749
976
1,078
195
217
217
2,113.0
2,081.6
2,141.3
July
August
September...
113.3 ;
113.8
1H.1
-165
+861
+277*4
-324.4
-+244.4
2,455.4
2,443.6
2,539.6
805
826
1,059
201
199
200
2,178.0
2,119.2
2,295.2
"114.. 5
1H.6
114.7
,-419
-18
+338.2
O16. 6
+184.3
2,588.3
2,502.9
2,408.9
865
785
1,200
240
235
225
2,250.1
2,186.3
2,224.6
114.7
114-8
115.0
-533
-1,817
+360.4
+378.1
+348.5
2,615.9
2,607.3
2,551.4
891
833
905
234
196
252
2,255.5
2,229.2
2,202.9
115.3
115.6
116.0
-553
-832
+427.8
+407.0
+349.2
2,653.8
2,546.9
2,576.5
772
1,029
1,043
215
220
218
2,226.0
2,139.9
2,227.3
.116.5
116.9
117.1
-638
+456
+376.1
+422.8
•+434. 2
2,584.1
2,547.9
2,642.7
875
841
905
219
230
231
2,208.0
2,125.1
2,208.5
117.5
117.8
118.2
r-1,845
r-1,220
+190.8
+316.5
+79.1
2,392.3
2,692.2
2,603.9
796
878
1,085
258
234
255
2,201.3
2,375.7
2,524.8
118.6
119.0
119.5
p-600
+169.3
+171.2
-157.7
2,784.7
2,773.1
2,454.7
877
r982
P941
215
260
p280
2,615.4
2,601.9
2,612.4
+248.0
2,888.5
(NA)
(NA)
2,640.5
October
November
December
1967
January
February
March
:
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1968
January
.
February
March
April
May
June
:
1
119.9
:
p-520
July
August
September
October
November
December
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by® . Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e". estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
43
Table 2A
BASIC DATA
MAY 1968
LATEST DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES-Continued
bed
Series Unclassified by Cyclical Timing-Continued
Major
Economic Process
FEDERAL GOVERNMENT ACTIVITIES
Minor
Economic Process
Federal Government Activities
Year
and
month
95. Federal
surplus (+)
or deficit (-),
national income
and product
accounts
(Ann- rate,
bil.dol.)
1966
January
February
March
951. Federal
receipts,
national income
and product
accounts
952. Federal
expenditures,
national income
and product
accounts
101. National
defense purchases, current dollars
91. Defense
Department
obligations,
total
90. Defense
Department
obligations,
procurement
99. New
orders, defense
products
industries
92. Military
prime contract
awards to
U.S. business
firms and
institutions
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
(Ann, rate,
bil.dol.)
(Ann. rate,
biLdol.)
(Mil. doL)
(Mil. doL)
(Bil. doL)
(Mil. dol.)
2,940
+ 2.2
137.0
134! 8
55.1
5,ioo
5,179
5,879
1,736
1,904
3,40
3,04
3. 33
2,850
2,913
Apri 1
May
June
»3.*2
Hi! 6
138. 4
5^.4
6,444
5,447
7,084
2,109
1,620
2,415
3.30
2.91
3.6H
3,359
3,061
3,724
July
August
September
-0.7
145.6
146.3
63!o
4,998
7,215
6,579
1,753
2,251
1,866
3.50
3.16
4.67
4,016
3,170
3,530
October
November
December
-3 '.3
uB.*6
151.9
65.*6
6,059
5,989
6,023
1,931
1,723
1,937
3.31
2.73
3.36
3,396
3,252
3,501
149.1
160.9
70.2
6,518
6,595
6,343
2,296
2,140
1,903
2.* r :
-11.9
3.33
3.24
3,338
3,^49
2,984
April
May
jyne
-1/4.7
148.1
162.8
72.*5
6,211
7,732
6,891
1,754
2,4^0
2,290
3.27
3.M
4.20
2,c'20
4,121
3,626
July
August
September
-13.2
152.7
16&! 9
73!3
5,928
7,003
7,479
1,633
1,925
2,958
3.04
2.34
3.71
3,610
3,686
3,665
October
November
December
-10.7
157.3
167.9
7^2
7,449
6,565
6,3.31
2,735
2,173
1,846
4.H9
3.<*6
3.'?7
3, (65
3,308
3,479
p-lo'.7
pi 64.! 9
rl75.6
r76*.7
7,033
7,615
6,203
2,360
2,865
1,935
3.13
r3.77
TV. 20
2,tf87
3,/45
3,124
(NA)
(NA)
p4.28
(NA)
1967
January
February
March
1968
January
February
March. .
April
May
June
1,639
July
August
September
October
November
December
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain no seasonal movement Unadjusted series are indicated by ©, Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. The V indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
44
Table 2A
bed
BASIC DATA
LATEST DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES-continued
MAY 1968
Series Unclassified by Cyclical Timing and Economic Process
Major
Economic Process
UNCLASSIFIED INDICATORS
Minor
Economic Process
Unclassified Indicators
Year
and
month
1966
January
February
March
850. Ratio,
output to
capacity,
manufacturing
851. Ratio,
inventories to
sales, manufacturing and
trade
852. Ratio,
unfilled orders
to shipments,
manufacturers1
durable goods
853. Ratio,
production of
business
equipment to
consumer goods
854. Ratio,
personal saving
to disposable
personal income
(Percent)
(Ratio)
(Ratio)
(1957-59 = 100)
(Ratio)
855. Ratio,
nonagricultural
job openings
unfilled to
persons
unemployed
(Ratio)
856. Ratio,
average earnings
of production
workers in
manufacturing to
consumer prices
(1957-59-100)
857. Vacancy
rate in total
rental housing®
(Percent)
1.43
1.45
1.42
3.21
90*. 5
3.28
3.25
117.9
119.1
119.7
0.053
0.13C
0.143
0.149
113.4
113.7
113.2
7.' 5
April
May
June
9CX9
1,46
1.48
1 . 46
3.37
3.40
3.50
•119-8
121.5
123.2
0,057
0.154
0.145
0.146
113.5
113.7
113.7
6. H
July
August
September ... ....
90,6
1.48
1.49
1.50
3.49
3.54
3.64
124. 8
125.9
126,4
0.057
O.HB
0.146
0.153
11,3.8
133.8
114.3
6^8
October
November
December
90.0
1.52
1.54
1.54
3.67
3.67
3.62
125.4
125.9
126.1
0.066
0.149
0.152
0.141
114.1
114.0
11.3.9
7.0
January
February
March
p87.1
1.56
1.58
1.5?
3.64
3.68
3.58
126.3
127.7
125. S
0.073
0-138
0.131
0.127
11 A. 3
13';. 1
114.3
O
April
May
June
p84.9
'"1.58
.1.57
1.55
3.73
3,69
3.74
124.7
124.7
123.4
0.067
0.123
0.119
0.115
114.9
114.9
115.2
0. 3
July
August
September
p84.i
rl.55
1.55
rl.56
3*71
3.63
3.78
122.9
121,5
122.3
0.070
0.114
0,119
0.118
115.2
115.6
115.?
6*. 4
p84.4
rl.59
1.55
rl.53
3. 88
3.70
3.64
119.6
122,3
120,0
0.075
0.108
0.118
0.119
115.3
115,8
116.2
Cj.A
p84. 1
rl.53
rl.53
pi. 50
3.53
3.58
r3.54
1-121.2
rll9.9
rllS.8
rO.066
0.129
0.122
0.129
117,0
rll6.6
117.3
(NA)
P3.61
pll8.6
pO.1,37
pll6.3
1967
October
November
December
1968
January
February
March
April
May
June
(NA)
July
August
September
October
November
December
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain no seasonal movement Unadjusted series are indicated by ® . Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
45
Table 2B
BASIC DATA
MAY 1961
LATEST DATA FOR INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS
Major
Economic Process
INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION INDEXES
Minor
Economic Process
Industrial Production Indexes
Year
and
month
47. United
States, index
of industrial
production
123. Canada,
index of industrial production
122. United
Kingdom, index
of industrial
production
121.0ECD,1
European countries, index of
industrial production
126. France,
index of industrial production
(1957-59-100)
(1957-59-100)
(1957-59 =100)
(1957-59- 100)
(1957-59 - 100) (1957-59 - 100)
151
152
161
163
153
153
154
163
132
131
134
164
163
163
132
130
130
153
154
156
1-31
163
166
132
131
130
155
154
156
167
168
167
128
127
129
166
166
166
129
129
129
1966
January
February... „
March
Apri 1
May
June
I'M
155
July
August
September
3^7
V>8
Vj#
October
November
December ,.,
159
160
1,56
1967
January
February
March
£
1 >9
I'j8
157
.106
164.
125. West Germany, index of
industrial production
a6,t
1-55
1*58
2'7'3
155
156
154
156
27 '
155
155
155
156
lf;6
1-36
154
154
153
155
155
155
156
154
156
151
150
152
;*>t*
;";1V
;?*)'•,
/vi
304
,'U9
'3{,y>,
'.n;.',
n '•'
;:i;j
,11
,-vs
i;?i
,- ; lc^
151
154
130
128
129
155
154
156
153
152
156
150
151
151
July
August
September
157
a 08
107
169
170
170
129
129
128
156
155
157
156
156
159
156
152
156
October
November . , ,
December
157
3.69
:K>o
162
173
174
r!29
r!30
134
158
160
rl6S
159
160
161
158
160
161
162
rl6,3
172
pi 70
r!33
p!33
rl62
pl63
.164
April
May
June.,
p!63
{1957-59 -100)
1,60
159
161
156
168
167
168
(NA)
(1957-59 - 100)
2*,;*
'U>6
I'j6
.106
(NA)
128. Japan, in- 127. Italy, index
dex of indust'ial of industrial proproduction
duction
158
157
161
147
150
152
April
May
June
1968
January
February
March
bed
(NA)
162
pl67
r!72
162
pl62
(NA)
,?;)1
?'Y r f
2tVi
2iV
r
279
] ^;:>
l^p,
l:r.
1 ft-*
];.)••
i -i;
19!-
196
;:m
291
i^'
/':")()
;?,9 *
f' V4
;>:'4^
:
303r;
;"V-'
r;i*
.?]'":
V,'
VS
:M->
p35l
(NA)
Mr,
.?r?
,?l f --
r?]6
p^.8
(TV/I)
(NA)
.„ .
July
August
September
October
November
December
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ©. Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. The V indicates revised; "p"r preliminary; V, estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
^Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development.
46
Table 2B
bed
BASIC DATA
MAY 1968
LATEST DATA FOR INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS-Continued
Major
taomk
W
fiitoir
COTmmw {Prki
•EcOT©mk P(r®si§§
Year
and
month
1966
January
February
March
nti
132. United King- 136. France,
index of consumer
dom, index of
consumer prices® prices ®
81. United States, 133. Canada,
index of consumer index of consumer
prices®
prices ®
(1957-59=100)
(1957-59 = 100)
111
113
(1957-59- 100)
(1957-59 = 100)
135. West Germany, 138. Japan, index
index of consumer of consumer
prices ®
prices®
(1957-59=100)
137. Italy, index
of consumer
prices®
(1957-59 = 100)
(1957-59 - 100)
133
133
133
120
121
121
146
125
137
137
138
115
115
116
126
127
127
138
139
138
122
122
122
150
148
149
133
113
114
in
116
116
117
127
127
127
139
139
139
122
122
122
149
148
150
134
134
134
1U
115
115
117
117
117
128
128
129
140
140
140
122
122
123
151
150
151
134
135
136
115
115
117
117
118
1P9
1P9
129
141
141
142
123
123
123
153
154
154
137
138
138
119
119
120
130
130
130
142
142
142
124
'138
124
154
153
152
121 i
121
142
143
143
124
123
123
152
153
156
139
139
140
112
112
in
124
124
114
April
May
June
112
July
August
September....
October
November
December
1967
January , .
February
March
113
113
115
:
147
148
134
134
April
May
June
115
July
August
September
116
117
117
121
130
130
129
October
November
December
1968
January
February .
March
118
118
118
121
121
i
122
129
131
131
144
145
145
123
123
123
159
159
160
340
140
140
119
119
132
120
123
123
123
147
147
147
125
125
125
161
161
162
140
140
140
April
May
June
120
124 =;
(NA)
125
162
116
1
1
6
:
133
133
(NA)
124
138
139
(NA)
July
August
September
October
November
December
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those that appear to; contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ©. Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. The Y indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e" r estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
47
Table 2B
BASIC DATA
MAY 1963
LATEST DATA FOR INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS-Continued
Major
Economic Process
bed
STOCK PRICE
Minor
Economic Process
Stock Prk© lndix@s
Year
and
month
19. United States,
index of stock
prices, 500 common stocks ®
143. Canada,
index of stock
prices®
142. United Kingdom, index of
stock prices ®
146. France, index
of stock prices®
(1957-59.100)
(1957-59-100)
(1957-59-100)
(1957-59-100)
1966
January
February
March
189
145. West Germany, 148. Japan, index
index of stock
of stock prices ©
prices®
(1957*59 - 100)
1 BO
192
191
186
173
178
174
127
123
11 S
177
ISO
178
April
May
June
186
176
174
190
IB2
182
173
179
181
114
110
1.10
175
168
159
July
August
September
174
163
108
180
171
16?
173
154
152
108
108
102
October
November
December
156
164
165
158
162
166
150
147
151
1967
January , ,
February
March
171
177
l&l
175
180
182
April
May
June
184
IBB
T85
July
August
September
October
November
December
183
<
1968
January
February
March
April
May
June
147, Italy, index
of stock prices®
(1957-59*100)
(1957-59 - 100)
223
147
1;3
no
>41
re
'.40
236
U4
1/«1
1/3
149
150
154
231
230
226
146
U7
1/3
101
107
103
151
147
148
,?24
U9
I 47
U4
157
156
159
99
103
98
148
156
159
,223
IBS
186
186
167
171
172
96
231
98
158
155
154
189
192
194
189
194
198
176
177
187
94
99
1.10
156
175
102
21 >
194
188
192
188
189
196
203
200
109
106
103
182
192
194
205
209
.193
99
193
184
1B1
189
20?
177
171
208
213
107
104
113
194
p!97
183
pi 88
235
rpl!6
p248
P119
>41
221
21 a
22l'»
2?tf
U2
3/4
1 ;»7
23'1
1 :»«
1 l?
1w
;m
1,>9
3,23
f
209
1T3
119
?l q
206
Vi«
IQtf
1 V-
p20*
13,',
1 30
1 3"-t
20 K
r207
?ro
p220
p226
rp220
p210
i.r?
133
pi 33
July
August
September
October
November
December
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ®. Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. The V indicates revised; *p", preliminary; V, estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
Digitized48
for FRASER
Section TWO
ANALYTICAL
MEASURES
charts and tables
DIFFUSION INDEXES BASED ON HUNDREDS OF
COMPONENTS
Average workweek—21 industries
New orders^36 industries
Capital appropriations—77 industries
Profits—1,000 corporof/ons
Stock prices—77 industries
Industrial materials prices—73 materials
State unemployment claims—47 areas
Nonagricultural employment—30 industries
Production—24 industries
Wholesale prices—22 industries
Retail sales—23 fypes of sfores
Nef sales—800 companies
New orders—400 companies
Car/codings—19 commodity groups
Plant and equipment expenditures—78 industries
BASIC DATA AND DIRECTIONS OF CHANGE FOR COMPONENTS
OF DIFFUSION INDEXES
bed
Chart 2
MAY
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
1968
DIFFUSION INDEXES FROM 1948
to PRESENT
Leading Indexes
(Aug.)
T
(MOV.) (Oct.)
P
I
(BNay) (Feb.)
P
T
9 - m o . span,
,-1-mo. span •
01. Avg. workweek, prod, wkrs.,!mf£.-21 Indus.
06. New orders, dur. goods Indus.-36 Indus.
D11. Newly approved capital appropriations-17 indus., NICB (3-Q span— 1-Q span—I
034. Profits, FNCB of NY, percent reporting higher profits-about 1,000 mfg. corp. (1-Q span)
019. Stock prices, 500 common stocks- 77 indus.
023, Industrial materials prtces-13 indus. mtls
05. Inftiat claims, State uampl. insur.-47 areas (inverted)
1948
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
1968
See 'How to Read Charts 1 and 2,' page 4. Current data for these series are shown on pages 54 and 55.
51
Chart 2
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
MAY 1968
bed
DIFFUSION INDEXES FROM 1948 to PRESENT-Continued
Roughly Coincident Indexes
(Nov.) (Oct.)
P
T
Digitized for
52 FRASER
P
(Aug.)
T
(July) (Apr.)
P T
(May) (Ftb.;
P T
Percent
D41. Emptoyeas in nonagri. estabfeltmnts-30 Indus. (6-mo. span— 1-mo. span
j
047, Industrial prodwction-24 indus. (6-mo. span— 1-mo. span-
D58. Wdolesale prices, mfrd. goods-22 indus. (6*1110. span— 1-mo. span
)
D54. Sales of retail stores-23 types of stores (9*mo. span— 1-mo. span
]
Chart 2
bed
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
MAY 1968
DIFFUSION INDEXES FROM 1948 to PRESENT-Continued |
Actual and Anticipated Indexes
(Nov.) (Oct.)
P
T
(July) (Apr.)
P T
(July) (Aug.)
P
T
(May) (Feb.)
P T
Percent
Actual*
Anticipated!--035. Net sales, all mfrs.-800 companies (4-Q span)
036. New orders, dur. goods mfrs.-400 companies |4^Q span)
048. Change in total carloadings (millions of cars--4-Q span)
048. Change in total carloadings
(millions of cars-4-Q span]
061. New plant and equipment expend.--18 indus. (1-Q span)
Data are centered within spans. Latest data are as follows:
Series number and
date of survey
D35.D36 (March 1968)
D48 (March 1968) '
D61 (February 1988)
194®
4f>
Ses 'How to
5©
SH
53
Actual
Anticipated
1st Q 1967-lst Q 1968
2d Q 1966-2d Q 1967
3d Q 1967-4th Q 1967
3d Q 1967-3d Q 1968
2d Q 1967°2d Q 1968
1st Q 1968-2nd Q 1968
§4
Charts 1 mti 2,'
53
Table 3
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
MAY 1!I68
LATEST DATA FOR DIFFUSION INDEXES
bed
Leading Indexes
Yoar
and
month
Dl. Average workweek, manufacturing
(21 industries)
1-month span
D6. Value of manufacturers' new orders,
durable goods industries (36 industries) *
1-month span
9-month span
9-month span
Dll. Newly approved capital appropriations,
NICB (17 industries)
1-quarter span
3-qwarter span
1966
January
February
March
50.0
£1.0
42.9
81.0
30.6
50 . 0
84.7
75.0
75.0
66.7
65
76
B5.7
38.1
April
May
June
35 .'?
54.!^
33.3
50.0
45.2
40.5
41.7
50.0
51.4
72.2
58.3
59.7
62
/i 7
July
August
September
19.0
66.7
64. 3
23.8
0.0
9.5
50.0
59 . 7
37.5
55.6
44.4
41.7
29
47
October
November
December
1967
January
February
March.
35.7
'38. 'I
9.'J
9.5
14.3
14.3
50.0
44.4
55.6
36.1
31.9
27.3
59
3^
69.0
4.#
6.1.9
9.5
9.5
9.5
31.9
38.9
55.6
38.9
41.7
45. 8
53
47
Apri 1
May
June
47.6
19.0
42.9
28.6
50.0
5 8. 3
61.1
66.7
47.1
58.8
53
41
76,2
59.5
38.1
52.8
65.3
38.2
82.4
53
r65
76,5
r83.3
r69.0
P35.7
55.9
64.7
76.5
73.5
r75.0
p67.6
26.3
„
52.4
July
August
September
64.3
73-3
October
November
December
2«.6
1968
January
February
March
April
May ..............
June
71.4
78.6
.33.3
41.2
H.3
85.7
r2l.4
44.1
r60.3
P9.5
PS5.9
sa.a
r4"
p47
P35
July
August
September
October
November
December
NOTE: Figures are the percent of series components rising and are centered within spans: 1-month indexes are placed on latest month and 9-mDnth indexes are placed
on the 6th month of span; 1-quarter indexes are placed on the 1st month of the 2d quarter and 3-quarter indexes are placed on the 1st month of the 3d quarter. Soasonally adjusted components are used. Table 4 identifies the components for most of the indexes shown. The "r" indicates revised; V, preliminary; and "NA", not available.
1
54
Based on 36 industries through August 1967 and on 34 industries thereafter.
bed
Table 3
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
MAY 1968
LATEST DATA FOR DIFFUSION INDEXES—Continued
Leading Indexes-Continued
Year
and
month
D34. Profits, manufacturing, FNCB
D19. Index of stock prices, 500 common D23. Index of industrial materials prices
(about 1,000 corporastocks (77 industries)© I
(13 industrial materials)
tions)
1-quarter span
1966
January
February
March
1-month span
9-month span
1-month span
9-month span
05, Initial claims for unemployment
insurance, State programs, week
including the 12th (47 areas)
1-month span
9-month span
59
74.0
43.7
14.3
51.9
43.5
37.7
61.5
76.9
46.2
53.8
61.5
61.5
38.3
44.7
83.0
91.5
74.5
U.7
April
May
June
59
63.6
3.9
23.4
22.1
11.7
6.5
30.8
42.3
46.2
53.8
30.8
15.4
53.2
45.7
57.4
68.1
76 . 6
78.7
July
August
September
50
33.3
6.5
3.9
9.7
22.1
20.1
61.5
26.9
0.0
7.7
7.7
7.7
17.0
72.3
80.9
80.9
34.0
34.0
October
November
December
1967
January
February
March
54
25.3
88. 3
59.7
47.4
58.4
66.2
19.2
30.8
57.7
0.0
0.0
0.0
36.2
46.8
27.7
23.4
17.0
46.8
48
90.9
92.2
61.0
85.7
90.3
97.4
46.2
53.8
23.1
0.0
15.4
26.9
55.3
17.0
46.8
27.7
8.5
8.5
April
May
June
46
76.0
74.0
51.3
93.4
92.1
86.2
23.1
61.5
69.2
30.8
23.1
23.1
55.3
54.3
55.3
31.9
44.7
29.3
July
August
September
52
81.6
77.6
57.2
68.4
65.8
71,1
30.8
53.8
19.2
23.1
30.8
46.2
34.0
72.3
60.6
73. 7
7B.7
66.0
October
November
December
59
32.2
7.9
71.1
52.6
46.1
50.0
46.2
46.2
61.5
38.5
30.8
30.8
3S.3
74.5
46.8
BO. 9
70.2
78.7
55
64.5
10.5
21.1
30.8
25.5
80.9
25.5
1968
January
February
March
April
May
June
94.7
46.2
46.2
53.8
':
3
46.2
2
63.8
53.8
July
August
September
October
November
December
NOTE: Figures are the percent of series components rising and are centered within spans: 1-month indexes are placed on latest month and 9-month indexes are placed
on the 6th month of span; 1-quarter indexes are placed on the 1st month of the 2nd quarter. Seasonally adjusted components are used except in index D19 which requires no
adjustment and index D34 which is adjusted only for the index. Table 4 identifies the components for most of the indexes shown. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary;
and "NA", not available. Unadjusted series are indicated by (5).
1
Based on 77 components through June 1967 and on 76 components thereafter.
Average for May 21, 22, and 23.
2
55
Table 3
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
MAY 196(1
LATEST DATA FOR DIFFUSION INDEXES—Continued
bed
Roughly Coincident Indexes
D41. Number of employees in
nonagricultural establishments
(30 industries)
Year
and
month
1-month spart
6-month span
81.7
88.3
95.0
91.7
83.3
1966
January
February
March
95.0
D47. Index of industrial production
(24 industries)
D58. Index of wholesale prices
(22 manufacturing industries) ©
D54. Sales of retail stores
(23 types 3f stores)
9-month span
6-month span
1-month span
6-month span
1- month span
70. ft
70.8
91.7
95. S
91.7
79.2
79.5
75.0
72.r?
fift.6
95.5
Q3.2
76. :i
65.2
60 . 9
82 . 6
84.8
7?. 3
72.9
62.0
75.0
75.0
79.2
66.7
70.5
86. /.
75. C
95.5
95.5
86.4
43.':
30.4
95.7
78.3
8;;.b
78.3
1-month span
April
May
June
9.3.3
81. 7
81.7
71.3
July
August
September
56.7
7tf . 3
35.C)
76.7
73.3
73.3
50.0
75.0
43. 8
75.0
66.7
66.7
72.7
54.5
47.7
72.7
72.7
63.6
47.*
47. -^
60, ^
76.1
6':...7
82. (i
October
November
December
81.7
76.7
70.0
85.0
65.0
65.0
72.9
56.2
50.0
66.7
45.-*
33. '^
63.6
63.6
54.5.
63.6
72.7
72.7
43,5
f9,<'.
41 . ^
8"'.n
7^.3
'-V.h
55. 0
25.0
25.0
39.6
41.7
77.3
?;-!.7
F7, ;i
:^-\ i
56.8
63.6
68.2
65.9
69.6
29.2
2,5.0
4T ( '
95.7
33.3
43.8
47.9
4'V J
56, B
5E).n
63.6
63.6
63.6
H\n
:u,^
^'.('*
80.0
75.0
1967
January
February
March
April
May
June
71.7
4 '3. 3
43.3
July
August
September
a. 7
71 . 7
36.7
A3. 8
25.0
56.2
*>3.3
48.3
75.0
73.3
58.3
•66.7
41.7
58.3
66.7
75.0
63.6
65.9
75 . C
72.7
73.3
r#L . 7
r91 . 7
56.2
83.3
#3.3
75.0
r75.0
rS3.3
r37.5
p95.8
58.3
35.0
October
November
December
70.0
91.7
7H.3
1968
January
February
March
63.3
r?0.0
r56.7
April
May
June
A3. 3
4'U7
40.0
,
a. ?
P53.3
3B.3
P93.3
87 . 0
j !. 1
*' ( j» l->
1
BI!H
/, ' • ' '
-2 . < '
(>!"1.(f
73.?
Bl.«
''**.'» . "!
72.7
77.3
90.9
Si.*
90.9
95.5
CI"'.M
90.9
90.9
r:.o
C'.^
r70.ft
63.2
' ? 3. : >
r50.n
ri*v.:)
p60./+
72.7
p-26.1
70. a
9: .3
at.i
rQi.7
95.7
p69.6
July
August
September
October
November .
December
....
NOTE: Figures are the percent of series components rising andarecentered within spans: 1-month indexes are placed on latest month, 6-month indexes are placed on the
4th month, and 9-month indexes are placed on the 6th month of span. Seasonally adjusted components are used except in index D58 which requires no adjustment. Table 4
identifies the components for the indexes shown., The V indicates revised; "p", preliminary; and "NA", not available. Unadjusted series are indicated by ®.
56
Table 3
bed
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
MAY 1968
LATEST DATA FOR DIFFUSION INDEXES—Continued
Actual and Anticipated Indexes
Year
and
month
D35. Net sales, manufactures D36. New orders, durable manu(800 companies)©
factures (400 companies) ®
4-quarter span
Actual
1966
January . *
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1967
January .
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1968
January .
February
March
April
May
June
D48. Freight carloadings(19 manufactured
commodity groups) ©
D61. New plant and equipment
expenditures (18 industries)
4-quarter span
1-quarter span
4-quarter span
Anticipated
Actual
Anticipated
Actual
Anticipated
Change in
total (000)
*87
91
*S5
*S9
57.'9
84^2
+21
*84
SB
'82
'83
52.6
78.*9
'+1
72
'84
*68
*82
42.1
78.*9
-51
72
*S4
*67
"&Q
31.6
52.6
r-89
70
82
*65
*78
(HA)
78.9
-131
74
'si
'70
'78'
73.7
-91
*78
82
*76
*80
73.7
lai
*86
*84
63.2
*S6
*78
Actual
Anticipated
83.3
62.5
83.3
71.9
55.6
37.5
75.0
65.6
55.6
50.0
30.6
41.7
33.3
44.4
61.1
50.0
(NA)
63.9
P47.2
jutv
August
September
October
November
December
NOTE: Figures are the percent of series components rising and are centered within spans: 4-quarter indexes are centered in the middle quarter; 1-quarter indexes are
placed in the 1st month of the 2d quarter. Seasonally adjusted components are used for series D6L The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; and "NA", not available.
Unadjusted series are indicated by ®.
57
Table 4
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
bed
MAY 1068
SELECTED DIFFUSION INDEXES AND COMPONENTS
1967
1968
Diffusion index components
September
December
November
October
February1*
January
March
April P
01. AVERAGE WORKWEEK OF PRODUCTION WORKERS, MANUFACTURING *
(Average weekly hours)
All manufacturing industries
4
40.8
40.7
(71)
Durable goods industries:
Ordnance and accessories
«
Lumber and wood products
Furniture and fixtures
*
Stone, clay, and glass products . . . ,
Primary metal industries
<
Fabricated metal products
<
Machinery, except electrical
<
Electrical machinery
*
Transportation equipment
<
Instruments and related products
Miscellaneous manufacturing industries
Nondurable goods industries:
Food and kindred products
t
Tobacco manufactures
+
Textile mill products
+
Apparel and related products
t
Paper and allied products
,
Printing and publishing
f
Chemicals and allied products
Petroleum and related products . . . f
Rubber and plastic products
,
Leather and leather products
,
4<
(29)
4
4
4
o
4
40.5 o
40.7
42.0
4.1 0 4
43 . 8
41.7
40.5
4.0.4
41.8
41 3
41.4-
4
4
4
42.7
40.2
42.7
41.2
39.5
42.3
40.5
41.5
41.1
39.4
4
4
o
4
4
H
<-f
4
o
o
4
42.4
41.0
38.0
41.4
36.3
42. 8
4<
o
40.7
39.0
41.3
35. 8
42.8
38.3
41 . 5 o
42.4 4
41.9 o
38.9
3B.O
41.5
43.0
41.9
38. 7
4
40 . 8
-
(21'1
40.4
38.6
39.5
40. H
41 5
41.4
4
4
4
4
4
42.3
41.3
41.0
42.1
41 . 7 •i
41.3 4
43 . 9 r40 . t ') 4
r40/J
r41.7
41 . 3
r41.o
41. 8
40.2
41.9
40.5
39.2
4
4
4
4
42.3
40.3
41. 8
40.7
39.7
42 . 1
r4C . 2
r42 . 2
r4C . 7
r39.3
40.4
37.5
39.9
35.3
42.6
4
+
4
4
4
40.8
40.2
43.6
3£.4
42.8
37.8
41.7
42.9
41.2
37.8
4
4
4
-t
3 P. 3
41.9
45.3
41.6
3F.6
4
24 , B2Q
4
40.7
43 6
41 .4
4
4
41.7
41 7
41.5
42.4
40.6
39.8
41.1
39.6
o
4
4
40. B
38.8
41.5
36.3
42.8
4o
4
+
42.4
40.4
41. 8 4
41.1
39.4
40.7
36. 8
41.6
36.2
43.1
3^.2
41 .9
43.1
41 . 8
39.5
-t
38.0
41 . 8
42.1 4
41.3
3B.4
4
o
_
_
-
41 . 3
40. #
40.7
41 . '41 . 4
41 .1
„ i 41.^
- . •*>.*
43 . 3
-
i
4<V>
3U . 6
-
4 r .4
36.4
41.1
3'V7
42.0
r3it.O
r43 .6 rAZ.O r43 . 6 _
r3*4.6
^"'.^
4:. 5
41.9
4D.6
^>?. 4
r4f.7
rTf . 9
r41 . 5
r36.1
42.6
o
o
40.4
(10)
41.7
40.3
4
o
t
40.7
41.9
41 . 2
40.5
4
4
4
o
(86)
(14)
4?.l
4
4
o
40.7
(33)
4
4-
4
(79)
•i
o
4'
40.2
40.7
D6. VALUE OF MANUFACTURERS' NEW ORDERS, DURABLE GOODS INDUSTRIES1
(Millions of dollars)
All durable goods industries . . . .
-
23,416
-
(38)
Primary metals
Blast furnaces steel mills
Nonferrous metals
«.
Other primary metals.
4
4
(56)
-
3 . 467
1,905 4
4-
4
4
44
-
(65)
(76)
3 783
2,091
4 120
...
4
...
2,313
2,936
4
4 r,°6 , " 3 1
(%)
4
4
4'
4-
3 , 807
Machinery, except electrical
3,840
3,679
3,588
3,875Steam engines and turbines*.
„
-1
^}
302
}
385
_/
309
]}
303
4
-./
289
Internal combustion engines*
. . .
4
. .
Farm machinery and equipment
,
4
...
4
...
4
681
678
Construction, mining, and material handling*.
622 4
662 4
712
240
Metalworking machinery*
223 4
244
167
203 4
Miscellaneous equipment*
4
...
4
...
4
...
4
,
4
Machine shops,
4- '
4
. .
4
„ . .
Special industry machinery*
4
...
4
...
General industrial machinery*
283 4 '
29H
292
332
4 '
313
Office and store machines*
4 \
4
4 •
Service industry machinery*
4-1
4
...
^
4 315
2/.60
4
...
4
...
4
2,334
4-
4 033
2,322
...
4
...
24,773
(41)
-
-
2 , 246
2 , 009
4
26
23,545
4
_
Fabricated metal products
Metal cans, barrels, and drums
„
Hardware, structural metal and wire products
Other fabricated metal products
3 61?
1,971
23,381
7rt)
13?*0/3
4
^
4
4
4
-
...
3 '*4
: 1
-3
(NA>
'
}
3 •*/ fi
" [rJAj
(MA)
'32, 3^2
_
-1
_/
4
CNA)
p.2^2
--i ,
4
4 (MA)
4
P08
- ',
4
p?02
4 • (NA)
...
4
4
- i
4
303
...
4 '
4
p3"L3
4
4 '
(MA)
' 1
'"
'•
NOTE: To facilitate interpretation, the month-to-month directions of change are shown along with the numbers: (+) = rising, (o) = unchanged, anj (-) - failing. Only
the directions of change are shown when numbers are held confidential by the source agency. NA = not available, p = preliminary, r = revised,
^Denotes
machinery and equipment industries that comprise series 24.
x
Data are seasonally adjusted "by source agency.
58
Table 4
bed
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
MAY 1968
SELECTED DIFFUSION INDEXES AND COMPONENTS-Continued
1967
1968
Diffusion index components
September
October
November
December
January
February
March
April
D6. VALUE OF MANUFACTURERS' NEW ORDERS, DURABLE GOODS INDUSTRIES1-Continued
(Millions of dollars)
Electrical machinery
*
Electrical transmission distr. equipment*
Electrical industrial apparatus*
Household appliances
Radio and TV
Communication equipment!
Electronic components.
Other electrical machinery*
3,554
A
-/
4-
...
+
999
4-
...
659
4+
.« ,
...
}
NA
NA
4+
s ,-^
J
4-
764
+
+
6,019
Transportation equipment* • < >
Motor vehicle parts
Motor vehicle assembly operations
Complete aircraftt . . . . < .
Aircraft partsf
„
3,315
3.473
+\
638
...
...
+
4^
_/
689
...
+
+
+
+
...
736
...
* ..
NA
NA
+
...
Lumber total
-t-
**.
Stone clay and glass total
Other durable goods, total
+
+
...
...
...
4}
75B
-1\
+
...
+
+
+
4
...
,*.
...
+
665
r741
p3 424
(NA)
-1
J»
/^
p649
+)
(NA)
pB53
...
+
(NA)
o
4-
..,
...
4
...
4
...
4-
...
4-
* . . '
+
...
...
r899
...
+
6,562
NA
NA
+
+
-t-
7,101
5,673
NA
NA
+
+
4
r3,541
3,335
3,569
/ rt~
.,.
644
6,241
NA
NA
4
722
4
...
H-
...
4
r7,96l
r6,402
NA
NA
4
+
4-
NA
NA
. . * 4...
. . . 4-
...
+
4-
...
...
p7,092
NA
NA
...
4
...
...
44
...
...
...
4
...
4
...
4-
...
4-
...
4
...
4
95.67
D19. INDEX OF STOCK PRICES, 500 COMMON STOCKS2
(1941-43 = 10)
Index of 500 stock prices
4-
95. Si
-
44-
-
(32)
(57)
Coal, bituminous
Food composite
Tobacco (cigarette manufacturers)
Texti le products
Paper
Publishing
95.66
.« .
92.66 +
(8)
4
44
,
95.30
95.04
90.75
89.09
(71)
(64)
(10)
(21)
...
,, .
4
4
4-
Chemicals
Drugs
4+
4
Oil composite
4
...
4,
4-
.
4-
...
4-
...
4
...
4
...
4-
...
...
4
4
4
4
...
...
.. .
...
4
. tt
4
...
H•{
4*
...
...
...
44
...
*•.
4
...
4
4
4
.. .
...
...
.
4
4-
Telephone companies .
Electric companies
Natural gas distributors
Retail stores composite
Life insurance
4
.. *
Building materials composite
Steel
Machinery composite
Office and business equipment
Electric household appliances
Electronics
Automobiles
Radio and television broadcasters
(95)
+
-|_
_|,
4
4-
...
.* .
4-
4,
4
...
44*
4
*
...
+
...
4-
...
4>
...
4
...
4-
* . .
4~
+
...
4
4...
...
NOTE: To facilitate interpretation, the month-to-month directions of change are shown along with the numbers: (+) = rising, (o) = unchanged, and (-) = falling. Only
the directions of change are shown when numbers are held confidential by the source agency. NA = not available, p = preliminary, r = revised.
^Denotes machinery and equipment industries that comprise series 24.
t These industries plus ordnance comprise series 99.
^•Data are seasonally adjusted by the source agency.
2
Data are not seasonally adjusted. The components shown here include 18 of the more important industries and 5 composites
representing an additional 23 of the industries used in computing the diffusion index in table 4.
59
Table 4
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
bed
MAY 1968
SELECTED DIFFUSION INDEXES AND COMPONENTS-Continued
Basic Data and Direction of Change-Continued
1967
1968
Diffusion index components
September
October
November
February
January
December
May1
April
March
D23. INDEX OF INDUSTRIAL MATERIALS PRICES 2
Industrial materials price
index (1957-59^100)
1
1
1
-
!
97,8 - ]
—1
97.7 4
j
99.1 +
99.8
100,1
99.5 + :
100.1
98.3
96.3
(46)
(54)
.520
(46)
(54)
.Ml
.390
.056
24.896
1.423
.141
.126
.
(Dollars)
;
(19)
Percent rising of 13 components
Copper scrap (Ib.)
Lead scrap (Ib.X
Steel scrap (ton)
Tin (Ib.)
Zinc(lb.)
Burlap (yd.)
Cotton (Ib.), 15-market average
Print cloth (yd.), average
Wool tops (Ib.)
Hides (Ib.X
Rosin (100 Ib.)
Rubber (Ib.)
Tallow (Ib.)
4
:
.3B2 4
.062
30. 174. 1.4-56 -f
.HO
.134- •f
-*
o
.237 +
,193
1.3B8 •+
.152 -t
10.971
.195
.050
I
(46)
(46)
.385 +
.062
28.756 4
1 486 4
.140
.135
.452
.061
29 . 774
1.510
.139
.133
.239 4
.192 4
1 . 591
.153 4
10 . 949 .185
.254
.193
1.523
.159
10.938
.171
.046
049
4
+
4
4
4
4
+
4
i
(62)
(46)
.473 4
.060
29.723 4
1.547
.139 4
.132
.494
.060
29.840
1.496
.139
.129
.275
.195 4
1.553 4
.167
10.894 .177
044 i
.264
.198 •f
1.563 t
.164
10.839
.171
. 045
4
+
+
4
'
.514
.061
30.078
1.469
.139
.127
.254
.199
1.591
.154
10.796
.167
.042
4
+
-
+
'
.062 4
26.136 -
.063 _
2'i.4r'l „
1 . 500.139 4
.125 4
*'. < 4^2
4
4
•i
.249
.198 4
1.640
.159
10.743 .174 4
.244
.198
1.6:i9
,1'J7
10.7":l
.174
4
. 046 4
.UC
4
,i;>5
4
4
-I
-I
•i
. 04? -\
.240
.203
1.633
.151
10.775
.192
.047
D5. INITIAL CLAIMS FOR UNEMPLOYMENT INSURANCE, STATE PROGRAMS3
(Thousands)
Avg. weekly initial claims ... 4
Northeast region:
Boston (7)
Buffalo (20)
Newark (11)
New York (1)
Paterson (?2)
Philadelphia (4)
Pittsburgh (9)
Providence (25)
North Central region:
Chicago (2)
Cincinnati (21)
Cleveland (10)
Columbus (26).
Detroit (5)
Indianapolis (23).
Kansas City (19),
Milwaukee (18)
Minneapolis (13)
St. Louis (8)
South region:
Atlanta (17)
Baltimore (12).
Dallas (15)
Houston (14)
West region:
Los Angeles (3).
Portland (24)
San Franci sco (6)
Seattle (16)
209 o
4
201 4
;...
...
...
...
4
4
•4
_
4
4
4-
...
4
...
4
...
4
...
...
...
4
...
4
...
4
...
4
...
4-
...
4
...
4
...
4
...
4
i
4
...
4!
.
4
•}•
...
...
...
4
...
4
...
4
...
4
...
.
4
...
4
...
4
...
4
...
4
...
4
_j.
.
4
...
4-
4
4
_
_
-(
4
.. .
4
^
,|
.
4
4
_j.
4
4'
.*.
4
...
4
...
4
...
...
4
...
4
...
4
...
4'
...
4
4
...
4
.
...
4
...
4
...
4
...
...
4
...
4
...
4
...
4
...
. . . 4
_j_
...
_^.
190
(6.0
4
•4
...
.. *
4
...
4
. .•
•4
...
4
4'
4
. *.
...
...
4
4
4
* ..
...
.. «
4
4
4
+
4
...
*•
...
...
4
4~
4
4'
i
4
1^8
(26)
...
4
4-
4
199 +
(81)
(26)
4
4
...
...
214 4
198
(47)
(74)
...
4
4
4
209 4
(38)
(61)
Percent rising of 47 components
_
"f•f
•t
...
...
. . .
^
...
NOTE: To facilitate interpretation, the month-to-month directions of ctiange are shown along with the numbers: (+) = rising, (o) = unchanged, and (•) ^ falling. Only
the directions of change are shown when numbers are held confidential by the source agency. NA ~ not available, p ^ preliminary, r = revised.
1
Average for May 21, 22, &nd 23.
S©ri©s components are seasonally adjusted by the Bureau of the Census.
The industrial materials price index IB not seasonally adjusted. Directions of change* are computed before figures are rounded.
3
The signs are reversed because this series usually rises when general business activity falls and falls when business rises:
(«) = rising, (©) ™ unchanged, arid (+) = falling.
Series components are seasonally adjusted by the Bureau of the Census before
the direction of change Is determined.
Data used are for the week including the 12th of the month.
Directions of change are
shown separately for only th0 26 largest labor market areas. The number following the area designation indicates Its si20 rank.
2
Digitized60
for FRASER
bed
Table 4
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
MAY 1968
SELECTED DIFFUSION INDEXES AND COMPONENTS-Continued
Basic Data and Direction of Change-Continued
1967
1968
Diffusion index components
September
November
October
December
February1"
January
March
ApriP
D41. NUMBER OF EMPLOYEES IN NONAGRICULTURAL ESTABLISHMENTS1
(Thousands of employees)
All nonagricultural establishments
-
Percent rising of 30 components ..........
(35)
Ordnance and accessories
Lumber and wood products
4-
Stone, clay, and glass products
Primary metal industries
Fabricated metal products
Machi nery
Electrical equipment
Instruments and related products
Miscellaneous manufacturing industries
Tobacco manufactures
Textile mill products
Apparel and related products
Paper and allied products.
Printing and publishing
Chemicals and allied products
Petroleum and related products
Rubber and plastic products
Leather and leather products
Mining
Contract construction
Transportation and public utilities
Wholesale trade*
Retai 1 trade
Finance, insurance, real estate
Service and miscellaneous.
Federal government
State and local government
66,055 4-
+
4
o
4+
+
+
4
+
+
+
4-
1,175
69
842
1,218
527
669
585
120
4,07
300
+ 1,185
+
70
4
847
4- 1,223
4
531
o
6.69
+
594
4121
4
408
+
"03
597
3,236
4,251
43,567
+ 10,209
43,270
+ 10 199
2 712
4Q rw
4
4
4
10,161
2 715
& Q^l
D47.
All industrial production
156.8
Percent rising of 24 components2 .
Durable goods:
Primary and fabricated imetals
Primary metal products
Fabricated metal products
Machinery and related products
Machinery, except electrical
Electrical machinery
Transportation equipment
Instruments and relafted products
Clay, glass, and lumber
Clay glass and stone products
Lumber and products
Furniture and miscellaneous
Furniture and fixtures
Miscellaneous
+
+
4
(78)
(92)
157 o
157
^13 +
515
377
374 4
505
500 41,009
+ 1,031
+ 1,045
1,024
+ 1,372
1,329
1 , 270+
1,289
1,380
1,289 4~
285
283 +
338
335 +
+
+
+
4
+
4
4
+
4 1,188 4+
77 4
+
848 +
+ 1,231 4
+
533 +
+
673
+
595 4
o
121 o
4412 4
+
306 +
o
+
+
4
+
4
+
4-
597
3,289
4,287
3,602
10,298
3,290
10,297
4
+
4
4~
+
2 698 4-
Q
1 1&
67,126 o
4-
67,137 4
67 712 4
67 Q21
(53)
(57)
(70)
(63)
r67 813 4
153 4160 o
160 o
527 o
520 4
523 +
383 +
387 o
387 o
514
479
513
1,029
1 , 030 •,
4
1,030
1,058
1,055
4
1,053
1,336
4 1,349 4
+
1,347
1 , 2934 1,294
1 , 293 1 , 41 34
1,398 41,408 4.
286 o
286
285
337 +
344
342 4
rl60 4
162
r527
524
r387 o
387
514
r466 4
4
1,041
1,026
1,03H
1,057
3 ,351
rl,352
rl,287
],284
rl 417 4 1,419
283
284
343
r344
1 , 190
78
855 o
1,234
536 o
672
597 4
121 4,
414 o
307 o
rl , 1 864
r 75
r86l
4
1,227
r*536
r675 4>
r&OO
rl??
r4?l 4
r307 4
598
3,353
4,290
3,598
10,272
3 , 304
10,332
2 708
o
+
4
+
4<
+
4
Q 1 80 4-
1 , 1 83
72 4
:
855 4
4
1,221
536 -t
671 4
59S 4
122 o
414 4
307 o
598
3,175
4,294
3,609
10 , 306
3,308
10,358
2 721
Q ?S7
4
4
+
44-
-44,
4
1 , 3 BO4
74 4
866
1,231
537
672
599
1?2
4?0
307
44
o
4o
604
r603
r3,439
4,318 o r4,3l6
4 r3 , 64 5
3,640
4- r 10,467
10,409
3,321 -i
3,^30
10 407 4 rlO 449
? 71 Q
r2 715
rQ 3T7
Q 10Q 4
4
1,1 $9
7?
860
1,239
535
67B
591
1?1
4P3
310
621
4
3,4?^
4,31/4
3,648
10,432
V,343
4
10, 46?
3,461
o
4
4
2 71 i*
.4
Q ^7^
INDEX OF INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION1
(1957-59=100)
4-
(42)
156.9 4(56)
+ 131.7 4
129.2
158.1 4- 158.2 4
182.1
] 82 4 +
159 2 o
183 1 +
+
4
66,918 +
(75)
15-4
508
370
494
1,003
1,023
1,365
1,260
1,297
281
336
601
3,238
4,262
3 565
10,154
3,264
+
66,243
177.2
4
182 8 +
1 59 . 2 4
183 2 4-
1 ?Q 7
1 ^8 / 4114. 3 4- 117.0 4-
4 166.3 44
156.4
159.5 +
135.0 +
159.8 4
180.9
186 3
165.6
185.4
162.0
(83)
(83)
44
4120.6 4
1 3Q ?
166.6
4
167.8 +
155.0
4
155.1 +
161.2
4
(38)
162.4
140.9 +
rl36.3 4
rl63.9 4
4179.5
185 8 •i
177.5
186.3 4
180.7
rl86 9
175.6
186 7
1A1 6
125.7
140 8
118.1 4
161.9
+
(71)
139.3 4
165,7 4
180.6
186 6
4
175.1
184.7
136 5
122.3 +
rl62.7 o
rl40.3
rl66.8
4
,145
1 6?
180.2
r!86 4
rl77.6
1 83 . 8 o
r!35 2
p!25^
162.7
(60)
(71)
179
1H4
177
184
4
138
4
1 /5
r!73.7 i
170.7 4 171.3 4 173.0 4
4
160.7 159.9
155.7 + 158.9 4
(NA)
174
161
NOTE: To facilitate interpretation, the month-to-month directions of change are shown along with the numbers: (4) = rising, (o) = unchanged, and (-) = falling. Only
the directions of change are shown when numbers are held confidential by the source agency. NA = not available, p = preliminary, r = revised.
•"•Data
are seasonally adjusted "by the source agency.
2
Where actual data for separate industries are not available, estimates are used to compute the percent rising. Directions
of change for the most recent spans are computed "before figures for the current month are rounded.
61
I able
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
bed
MAY 1968
SELECTED DIFFUSION INDEXES AND COMPONENTS-Continued
Basic Data and Direction of Change-Continued
1967
1968
Diffusion index components
October
September
November
January
December
February
March
\
j
April
D47. INDEX OF INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION1-Continued
(1957-59=100)
Nondurable goods:
Textiles apparel and leather
Textile mill products
Apparel products
Leather and products
4
147.6 4 ,rl48.4 4
r!42.9 4
pl49.3
147.4 4
148.6 4
113.3 4
151.6
150.9 115.1 -
rl,45.2 4 pU6.3
rllO.4 - - p!09.7
152.9 +
154.5 4
144.3 •»
156.1 4
145.5
157.0 144.1
r!55.9 +
1 43 . 3 +
pi 57 .1 •+
r U 5. 9 4
146.8 +
202 . 3 4
137.0 4
202.4
205.5 4
137.6
199 . 1 4
208.0 *
136.8 t
207 . 5 4
210.5 4
138.0
21*1.4
r211.B +
134.8 4
206.7 4
4
r212.1 +
r 13S.o p207.9
rl99.0
p212.6
pl35,2
(NA)
pi 99
(NA)
131.2 4
120.2
132.2 4
118.0
133.5 i
115.5 t
134.1 120.5 -
r!33.5 rlH.4 1
4
r!33.4 4
p!32.l
rl,33.7
pl33.H
(NA)
p!33
(NA)
(NA)
115.5
127,5
112.3 4
126,1 >t
115.3 t
126.4
116.1 123.5
rl!3.4 4
r!23-6 4
rl!6.8 4
1?^,B +
95.6
1,36.5
93, 8
132.9 4
93.2 •t
139.0 (
100.0 ^
335.3 i
r!02.7 i
rH5.3 -
p!04.2
pl/,1.2
108.6 4
4
HI . 3 4
146.8
4
10 tf. 4 4
4
(NA)
INA)
4
Paper and products
Printing and publishing
145.4
Chemicals petroleum, and rubber
•4
4
Petroleum products
Rubber and plastics products.
Foods, beverages and tobacco
Foods and beverages
*.*
Minerals:
Crude oil and natural gas
Metal, stone, and earth minerals
Metal mining, .,..,..
Stone and earth minerals
,. .
pi 44
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
144.9 4
146,2 4
109.7 +
*•• 4
95.7
142.7
pl57.fi
p!52
(NA)
pi 48
(NA)
(NA)
126,0
126.9 4
+
pi 24
pi 27
pi 27
(NA)
(NA)
108.9
(6^)
•i
109.0
in. 6 t 113,9
103.3 i 103.6
106.9 4 107.3
m r i,5
10^.3
4
D58. INDEX OF WHOLESALE PRICES, MANUFACTURING INDUST ES2
(1957-59=100)
All manufacturing industries
4
107.1 o
(75)
Durable goods:
Lumber and wood products
Furniture and other household durables. «
Nonmetallic mineral products
I ron and steel
Wonferrous metals
Fabricated structural metal products
Miscellaneous metal products
General purpose machinery and equipment
Miscellaneous machinery
Electrical machinery and equipment
Motor vehicles and equipment
Miscellaneous products
-i
4
108.7
101 . 2 4
4
104.7
4
104.0
•i
11^.4
•t
-I
i
105.6 -t
114.1 o
114.0 4
4
109 7 -t
-
o
101 5 4
110 ? •*
4
4
•i
Nondurable goods:
Processed foods and feeds
-i
Cotton products
,. . 4
Wool products
Manmade fiber textile products
-*
Apparel
f
Pulp, paper, and allied products
4
Chemicals and allied products
Petroleum products, refined
-t
Rubber and rubber products
Hides, skins, leather, and related products. . . . . 1o
1^1 5
107.1 4
(73)
(77)
107.3
101.7 H
104.9 i
103 9 •*
106.7
102.0
10^.1
104.3
4
-i
o
114.1 i
i
114 7t
9
^
7
5
-t
-t
-t
4
110
101
104
no
109
101
103
110
in .7
102 8
86a -i
107.5 •t
4
104 3 •*
97.9 4
103,9
98.2 i
- 114.4 4
»
t
t
t
120 7
10^.7
114.1
114 4
1 1 ? .7
9q . 2
10? 7 •i
86 3 i
107.4 •*
104.1
107.2 f
09 1 -f
98.2
o
101 .0
98.8 -t
114.8 4
122 7 t
105 9 f
107.6
108.1
(91^
(91^
(84)
107.6
102.1
105.3
104.7
1.08.6 4
103.0 '*
106.0 •\
10*5 . 6 •-*
7
1
4
?
12^.1 4
1 06 . 9 4114.7 4
11 r >. 4 -i
11? 0 •'
10? "' o
104 3 0
123
106
114
110
4
6
0
6
•t
110 8
i
202 ^
o
f
104 0
110 7
110.9
101 2
10? 2
88 1
108.0
t
i
'*
i
*
11 1 0
104 2
102 2
88 6
108.1
104 8
104 6 i
98.2 4
100.4
99.1 *
115.4 <
f
98.4
99.9
99.2
4
_
13X3
106.4 • t
in6.8
11 i . 3 o
116 ^ -t
11^.3
116.5
112 3 +
102 7
104 3 o
1113 4
11?, 7
10? 6
104 3
111 ^
4
112.9
10^.0
•I
r
4
t
(
•i
t
't
112.4
105.?
ID? 3
89 1
108.3
i
113.3
•t
t
105.:") e
10? 8 H
**) -i
108.8 -t
•t
10 C .7
10^.2 4
98.2
9«.l 4
oo f t\ c
98.8 ,
99.5 -*
99.5 o
116.5 -i 116.7 -i
•\
116.0 -i
4
128 B f
ni o
-t
(V3)
T?r:.-»,
107.1
O
im.i
?*i . 3
O
TOQ.l
4-
C
1C > ?
98,6
oqt^
? q .7
117.9
c
10-7.4
lOf-.l
n
4
4
113. n
103.0
10/..3
103. ("i
89.3
10c:>. 3
10^.2
98. 8
1 Ofs. 3
O
4
NOTE: To facilitate interpretation, the month-to-month directions of change are shown along with the numbers: (+) = rising, (o) ^ unchanged, and (-) ^ falling. Only
the directions of change are shown when numbers are held confidential by the source agency. NA = not available, p ~ preliminary, r = revised.
x
Data are seasonally adjusted by the source agency.
2
Data are not seasonally adjusted.
62
Table 4
bed
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
MAY 1968
SELECTED DIFFUSION INDEXES AND COMPONENTS-Continued
Basic Data and Direction o
1967
1968
Diffusion index components
October
September
November
Februaryr
January
December
Aprilp
March
D54. SALES OF RETAIL STORES1
(Millions of dollars)
Alt retail sales.
+
26 , 732 -
26,089
(76)
Grocery stores
Other food stores
Eating and drinking places
5,535 4
1 1r
+
+
4
Mail-order houses (department store merchandise) . . +
o
2,110
2,354
239 4
516
•
5 , 543 +
«.* o
2,104 +
2,321 4
250
508 +
+
5,584 +
. . » 42,133 +
2,371
239
533
+
+
257
812
254
771 +
4
+
450
789
423 +
786
+
44
o
»..4
4,891
333 +
252
...
4,361
346 +
454 +
774 4
247 4
+
4,331 +
361
4
2,028
2,015 +
912 -f
600 +
2,064
928 +
601
324
578
+
252
901 4-
+
599 4-
4
...
_i_
2/9
782
+
4
4
26 , 470 +
27 065 4
(48)
(74)
5,666
t . ,
2,1^4
2,367
'231
529
4
27 399 4 r28,129 - 2n , 640
(87)
(50)
5 , 743
5,655 4
4
2,206
2,480
237
534
4
4
4
+
-+
4
4
2,173 4
2,388 4
241
526 4
4
304 +
559 4
... 4
338
584 4-
246 +
778 4
261 4
789 4
271
463 4
839
249 4
...
4,355 +
323 +
469 o
819 4
265
469 -t
906 4
261 4
4,549 4
343
2,017 4
949 4586 4
2,095 +
954
633
. 4 ,
607
4
4
Farm equipment dealers
* * * . . . * . *.*...
Passenger car and other automotive dealers.
Tire battery accessory dealers
Gasoline service stations
Drug and proprietary stores
Liquor stores*
•
Jewelry stores
.\
Other durable-goods stores
-/
Other nondurable-goods stores
*.*
4
307 4
575 +
322
*•
26,411
(67)
(37)
+
4-
Other general merchandise stores
Men's and boys' wear stores
Women's apparel , accessory stores
Family and other apparel stores
Shoe stores
Furniture home furnishings stores ••
Household appliance TV radio stores
Lumber yards building materials dealers
+
...
)•
324 4
590 4
(26)
p5,745 4
•.
4
p2 , 220
p2,567
p258 pS69
4
(NA)
.
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
.* .
p352
p632
(NA)
(NA)
p270
p864
(NA)
(NA)
4
«.
4
840
4
p475 4p273 4
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
4,736 +
332 +
p4,937 p341 . -
(NA)
(NA)
2,116 +
p2,l6l p948
p653 -
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
936 4
625 4
P937
4
...
+
...
4
...
NOTE: To facilitate interpretation, the month-to-month directions of change are shown along with the numbers: (4)= rising, (o) = unchanged, and (-) = falling. Only
the directions of change are shown when numbers are held confidential by the source agency. NA = not available, p = preliminary, r • = re vised.
•'•Data are. seasonally adjusted "by the source agency.
63
Appendix A.-BUSINESS CYCLE EXPANSIONS AND CONTRACTIONS IN THE UNITED STATES: 1854 TO 1961
Duration in months
Contraction
(trough from
previous
peak)
Business cycle reference dates
Trough
Cycle
Expansion
(trough to
peak)
Trough from
previous
trough
Peak from
previous
peak
Peak
December 1854
December 1858
June 1861
December 1867
December 1870
March 1879
June 1857
October 1860 .
April 1865
June 1869
October 1873
". March 1882
(x)
IB
8
32
15
65
30
22
46
13
34
36
(X)
48
30
78
36
99
(X)
40
54
50
52
101
May 1885
April 1888
May.1891
June 1894,,
June 1897.
December 1900
March 1887
July 1890
January 1893
December 1895
June 1899
September 1902
38
13
10
17
18
18
22
27
20
18
24
21
74
35
37
37
36
42
60
40
30
35
42
39
August 1904.
June 1908- January 1912
December 1914
March 1919.
JU|y 1921.
May 1907
•
January 1910
January 1913 • • • «
August 1918
January 1920
May 1923
23
13
24
23
7
13
33
19
12
44
TO
22
44
46
43
35
51
2g
56
32
36
67
17
40
July 1924.
November 1927
March 1933
June 1938.
October 1945
October 1949
October 1926
August 1929
May 1937
February 1945
November 1948
July 1953
14
13
43
13
8
11
27
21
50
80
37
45
36
40
64
63
88
7$
41
34
93
93
33
56
August 1954
April 1958
February 1961
July 1957
May 1960
13
"9
9
35
25
(X)
58
44
34
48
34
(X)
Average, alt cycles:
26 cycles, 1854-1961 . .
10 cycles, 1919-1961 . .
4 cycles, 1945-1961.. ,
19
15
10
30
35
36
49
50
46
149
54
3
46
Average, peacetime cycles:
22 cycles, 1854-1961 ..
8 cycles, 1919-1961 . . ,
3 cycles, 1945-1961 . . .
20
16
10
26
28
32
45
45
42
2
*46
48
42
5
6
NOTE: Underscored figures are the wartime expansions (Civil War, World Wars ! and II, and Korean War), the postwar contractions,and
the full cycles that include.the. wartime expansions.
X
25
2
cycles, 1857-1960,
9 cycles, 1920-1960.
3
4
4
cycfes r 1945-1960.
21 cycles, 1857-1960.
5
7
6
cycles, 1920-1960.
3 cycles, 1945-1960.
Source: National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
65
Appendix B.-SPECIFIC TROUGH AND PEAK DATES FOR SELECTED BUSINESS INDICATORS
Specific trough dates for reference expansions beginning inSelected series
Feb.
1961
Apr.
1958
Aug.
J954
Oct.
1949
June
1938
Mar.
J933
Nov.
1927
July
1924
July
1921
LEADING INDICATORS
1. Average workweek, production workers,
Dec.
manufacturing
»
30. Nonagricultural placements, all industries. . . Jan .
Jan.
38 Index of net business formation- • »
Jan.
6 New orders durable goods industries
10. Contracts and orders, plant and equipment. . . Mar.
29. New building permits, private housing units. . Dec.
31. Change in book value, manufacturing and
trade inventories
23. Industrial materials prices
19. S^ock prices, ;500 common stocks
16. Corporate profits after taxes (Q)
17. Ratio, price to unit labor cost,
manufacturing
113. Change in consumer installment debt
Dec.
Dec.
Oct.
IstQ
'60
' 61
'61
'61
'61
'60
Apr.
Mar.
Apr.
Jan.
Mar.
Feb.
'58
'58
'58
'58
'58
'58
Apr.
May
Mar.
Sep.
Mar.
Sep.
'54
'54
'54
'53
'54
'53
'49
'49
'49
'49
'49
'49
Jan. '38 June '32 Apr. '28 July '3,4 Feb. '21
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(MA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NSC) May ' 24 Jan. '21
Apr. '38 Mar. '33
(NA)
(NA)
(HA)
(NA)
(NA)
Dec. '37 Dec. '32 May ' 27 July '2,4 Dea. '20
'60
'60
'60
'61
Apr.
Apr.
Dec.
IstQ
'58
'58
'57
'58
Nov.
Feb.
Sep.
4thQ
'53 Apr. '49
'54 June '49
'53 June '49
'53 2ndQ '49
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(KA)
June '38 July '32 Aug. '28 Juno '24 July '21
'(NSC) Get. '23 Au^. '21
Apr. '38 June '32
2ndQ '38 3rdQ '32 4thQ '27 3r.lQ '24 2ndQ '21
'54 May '49
'54 Jan. '49
Dec. '37 Apr. '32 Aug. '27
(NA)
Feb. '38 Feb. '32
Jan. '61 Mar. '58 Mar.
Apr. '61 Mar. '58 Mar.
Apr.
July
July
June
Apr.
Jan.
Juuc ' 24 Mar. '21
(NA)
(NA)
ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
41. Employees in nonagricultural establishments.
43. Unemployment rate, total (inverted)
50. GNP in 1958 dollars (Q>.
47.
52.
816.
54.
Industrial production
Personal income
Manufacturing and trade sales.
Sales of retai 1 stores
.........
Fob. '61 May i 58 Aug. '54 Oct. '49
May ' 61 July '58 Sep. '54 Oct. '49
IstQ '61 , IstQ '58 2ndQ ' 54 2ndQ '49
Feb. '61
(NSC)
Jan. '61
Apr. '61
Apr.
Feb.
Mar.
Mar.
'58
'58
'58
'58
Apr.
Apr.
Aug.
Jan.
'54
'54
'54
'54
June '38 Mar. '33 Jan. '28 July '24 July '21
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
June '38 May '33
(NSC) AthQ '2,1
(NSC)
IstQ '38 3rdQ '3P
Oct. '49 May '38
July '49 May '38 v
(NA)
Oct. '49
(NSC) May '38
July '32 Nov. '27 July '24 Apr. '21
Mar. '33 4thQ/ ' 26 2ndQ '2A 2ntiQ '21
(NA)
(NA)
' (HA)
(NA)
(NSC)
(H8C) Mar. '22
Mar. '33
LAGGING INDICATORS
502. Unemployment rate, persons unemployed
15 weeks and over ( inverted)
61. Business expenditures, new plant and
equipment (Q)
71. Book value, manufacturing and trade
inventories
62. Labor cost per unit of output,
manufacturing
,
72. Commercial and industrial loans
outstanding
67. Bank rates on short-term business
loans (Q)
July '61 Aug.
2ndQ '61 3rdQ '58 IstQ '55
4thQ '49
Mar.
Dec. '49
'61 Aug.
'58 Oct. '54
Sep. '61 June '59
(NSC)
(NA)
'58 Oct. '54 Nov. '49
July »58
3rdQ '38
(NA)
Sep. '55
July '50
June '40
Oct. '54
Aug.
Dec.
'49
4thQ '61 2ndQ '58 IstQ '55 IstQ '50
(NA)
IstQ '33
(NA)
4thQ '27
(NA)
July '33
'38
(NA)
3rdQ '41
(NSC)
F©b.
3rdQ '24 4thQ '21
(NA)
(NA)
(NSC)
(NSC)
(WA)
(WA)
'28
(NA)
(NA)
Nov. '24
(NA)
Apr.
'22
(NA)
Sep. '22
NOTE: Specific trough dates are the actual dates when individual series reached a trough as distinguished from the reference dates which are those dates designated as
the trough of business activity as a whole. This table shows, for the 25 indicators on the NBER "short list," the specific dates corresponding to reference dates in 9 recent
business cycles.
NA = Not available.
Digitized for66
FRASER
NSC s No specific cycle corresponding to reference date.
Appendix B.-SPECIFIC TROUGH AND PEAK DATES FOR SELECTED BUSINESS INDICATORS-Continued
Specific peak dates for reference contractions beginning inSelected series
May
1960
July
1957
July
1953
Nov.
1948
May
1937
Aug.
1929
Oct.
1926
May
1923
Jan.
1920
LEADING INDICATORS
1. Average workweek, production workers,
manufacturing
30. Nonagricultural placements, all industries,. . .
38 Index of net business formation
6. New orders, durable goods industries
10. Contracts and orders, plant and equipment. . .
29. New building permits, private housing units. .
31. Change in book value, manufacturing and
trade inventories!. ..<,..'
23 Industrial materials prices
19 Stock prices 500 common stocks
16 Corporate orofits after taxes (Q)
17. Ratio, price to unit labor cost,
manufacturing
113 Change in consumer installment debt
June
July
Apr.
Apr.
Sep.
Nov.
' 59
'59
'59
'59
'59
'58
Nov.
Nov.
Mar.
Dec.
Nov.
Feb.
'55 Mar. '53
'55 Feb. '53
'55 Sep. '52
'55 Jan. '53
'56 May ' 51
'55 Nov. '52
(NSC)
Dec. '36 Oct. '29 Nov. '25 Nov. '22
(NSC)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
Apr. '46
(NSC)
Nov. '25 Jan. '23
Aug. '48 Dec. '36
(NA)
(NA)
June '48
(NA)
(NA)
Oct. '47 Feb. '37 Feb. '28 July '25 Jan. '24
Dec.
Nov.
July
2ndQ
'59
'59
'59
'59
Apr,
Dec.
July
4thQ
-'56 Jan. '53
'55 Feb. '51
'56 Jan. '53
'55 2ndQ '53
July
Jan.
June
2ndQ
June '59
Aug. '59
Oct. '55
Mar. '55
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
July '19
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
'46
'48 Mar. '37 Mar. '29 Nov. '25 Mar. '23 Apr. '20
(NSC) Mar. '23 July '19
'48 Feb. '37 Sep. '29
(NA)
'48 4thQ '36 3rdQ '29 3rdQ '26 2ndQ '23
Jan. '51 June '48 Mar. '37 July '29
Dec. '52 Mar. '48 Mar. '36 May ' 29
Sep. '26
(NA)
June '22 Feb. '20
(NA)
(NA)
ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
41. Employees in nonagri cultural establishments, Apr. '60 Mar. '57 June ' 53 Sep. '48 July '37 Aug. '29 Jan. '26 June '23 Jan. '20
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
Feb. '60 Mar. '57 June '53 Jan. '48 July '37
43. Unemployment rate, total (inverted)
(NA)
(NSC)
(NSC)
IstQ '60 3rdQ '57 2ndQ '53 4thQ '48 3rdQ '37 3rdQ '29
50. GNP in 1958 dollars (0)
47.
52
816.
54
Industrial production
Personal income
Manufacturing and trade sales
Sales of retail stores
'53 July '48 May ' 37 July '29
'53 Oct. '48 June '37 Aug. '29
(NA)
(NA)
'53 Aug. '48
Sep. '37 Sep. '29
(NSC)
'53
Jan. '60
(NSC)
Jan. '60
Apr . ' 60
Feb.
Aug.
Feb.
Aug.
May ,'60
Sep. '57
Oct. '53 Jan. '49
,2ndQ '60
3rdQ '57
3rdQ '53
July '60
Sep. '57
Sep. '53 Feb. '49
'57
'57
'57
'57
July
Oct.
July
Mar.
Mar. '27 May ' 23 Feb. '20
(NA)
2ndQ '26 IstQ '24
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NSC)
(NSC)
July '20
LAGGING INDICATORS
502. Unemployment rate, persons unemployed
15 weeks and over ( inverted)
61. Business expenditures, new plant and
equipment (0) • •
71. Book value, manufacturing and trade
inventories
62. Labor cost per unit of output,
manufacturing
72. Commercial and industrial loans
outstanding
67. Bank rates on short-term business
loans (Q)
Jan. '61 Mar. '58 Mar. '54
(NSC)
4thQ '59
(NA)
4thQ '48 3rdQ '37
(NA)
(NA)
2ndQ '29
(NA)
4thQ '26
(NA)
(NA)
Nov.
'48
Dec.
'37
(NSC)
(NSC)
'48
Sep. '37
(NA)
(NA)
Sep. '57
July '53
Aug.
4thQ '57
4thQ '53
2ndQ '49
(NSC)
Oct. '29
Oct. '26
(NA)
(NA)
2ndQ '23
2ndQ '20
(NA)
Oct. '23 Nov.
(NA)
(NA)
'20
(NA)
Oct. '23 Feb. '21
NOTE: Specific peak dates are the actual dates when individual series reached a peak as distinguished from the reference dates which are those dates designated as.the
peak of business activity as a whole. This table shows, for the 25 indicators on the NBER "short list," the specific dates corresponding to reference dates in 9 recent business cycles.
NA= Not available.
NSC= No specific cycle corresponding to reference date.
67
Appendix C.-AVERAGE CHANGES AND RELATED MEASURES FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES
Part ^Average Percentage Changes
Monthly series
Period
covered
Average duration of run
(ADR)
T/C*
Cl
c
1
T/C
for
MCD
span
MCD
Cl
,
0
MCD
MONTHLY SERIES
LEADING INDICATORS
*L Average workweek of production Workers, mfg .... Jan. '53-Sep.'67..
*30. Nonagricultural placements, all industries
Jan. '53-Sep. '67..
Jan.'53-Sep. '67..
5. Average weekly initial claims, State
unemployment insurance
Jan. '53-Sep. '67..
.46
2.08
4.61
.40
1.66
4.37
.19
1.00
1.41
2.14
1.66
3.11
3
2
4
.73
.95
.80
2.20
2.00
2.17
1.49 * 9/78
9.73
1.57
1.33 11.73
4.05
3.65
3.53
5.32
4.71
2.16
2.17
3
.75
1.73
1.48
12.57
3.95
Jan. '53-Sep. '67..
Jan.'53-Sep. '67..
Jan. '53-Sep. '67..
Jan. '53-Sep. '67..
Jan. ' 53-Sep. '67..
9.38
.81
2.54
3.62
6.42
8.57
.60
2.24
3.22
6.13
3.23
.55
.95
1.42
1.61
2.66
1.09
2.35
2.27
3.81
3
2
3
3
5
.86
.62
.83
.69
.79
2.12
2.89
1.85
1.78
1.57
1.48
1.57
1.56
1 . 59
1.45
g.OO
7.33
H.38
0.80
9.26
4.38
4.61
3.16
4.24
3.44
4.58
4.06
4.27
3.65
1.39
1.50
3.07
2.43
4
3
.85
.85
1.80
1.89
1.63
1,61
8.80
12.57
3.33
3.41
8.47
7.24
8.38
6.97
1.05
1.48
7.96
4.71
6
5
(x)
.92
1.52
1.63
1.47
1.51
13.54
8.67
3.00
2.78
Jan. '53-Sep. '67- .
3.90
3.34
1.66
2.02
3
.66
1.93
1.56
12.57
3.28
Jan. '53-Sep. '67..
6.46
5.38
2.83
1.90
3
.75
2.35
1.61
7.65
3.70
Jan.'53-Sep.'67..
4.99
4.53
1.88
2.4i;
3
.75
1.85
1.61
1C. 35
3.87
Jan. '53-Sep. '67..
7-42
5.73
4.04
1.42
2
.92
3.09
1.03
8.00
3.89
Industrial materials prices
Jan. '53-Sep. '67. . 1.32 1.04
1.65
Stock prices 500 common stocks * *
Jan. '53-Sep. '67.. 2.46
.63
.51
Ratio, price to unit labor cost, manufacturing. .... Jan. '53-Sep. '67..
Liabilities of business failures. » » » • *
Jan. '53-Sep. '67 . . 19.62" 19.11
Jan. '53-Oct. '67 . . 2.67 2,05
Delinouency rate installment crodit loans *
.79
1.64
.28
1.92
1.41
1.30
1.01
1.84
9.95
1.46
2
2
3
6
2
.92
.56
.85,
C1)
.91
2,55
2.44
2.48
1.53
2.59
2. 15
1.60
1.71
1.44
1.57
IU.73
9.78
6.07
8.80
6.29
3.80
4.38
4.24
3.11
3.
*38
13
*6
94
Layoff rate, manufacturing
Index of net business formation. * «
New business incorporations. ..*
New orders durable goods industries
Construction contracts value . . « •
*10 Contracts and orders plant and eouipment
Jan.'53-Sep. '67- •
24. New orders, machinery and equipment industries . Jan.
. '53-Sep. '679. Construction contracts, commercial
Jan. '53-Sep. '67 ••
Jan. '59-Sep. '67.*29 New building permits private housing
37. Purchased materials, percent reporting
higher inventories
»
26, Buying policy, production materials,
commitments 60 days or longer
32. Vendor performance, percent reporting
"'23.
*19
*17.
14
39
a. 37
ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
301. Nonagricultural job openings unfilled
46. Help-wanted advertising
511. Man-hours in nonagricultural establishments
*41 Employees in nonagricultural establishments. ....
42 Total nonagricultural employment . . <-
Jan. '53-Sep. '67. .
Jan. '53-Sep. '67..
Jan. '53-Sep. '67. .
Jan. '53-Sep. '67. .
Jan, '53-Sep. '67. -
3.09
2.96
.43
.31
.35
1.71
1.79
.31
.14
.28
2.34
2.22
.30
.27
.20
.73
.80
1.03
.53
1.39
1
1
2
1
2
.73
.80
.52
.53
.74
3.74
2.98
2.75
4.89
2.17
1.74 12.57
7-05
1.48
1.54 11.73
1.57 19.56
1.53 39.33
3.74
2.98
5.00
4.89
3.89
*43. Unemployment rate, total
45. Average weekly insured unemployment
rate, State programs
40. Unemployment rate, married ma)$s
Jan. (53-Sep. '67.-
3.77
3.00
2.08
1.45
2
.75
2.67
1.52
a. oo
3.98
Jan. '53-Sep. '67. .
Jan. '54-Sep. '67..
4.18
5.89
2.34
4.91
3.13
3.14
.75
1.56
1
2
.75
.87
5.03
3.33
1.81
1.52
£.38
6 . 56
y.03
3.98
Jan. '53-Sep. '67. .
Jan. '53-Sep. '67- -
.97
.54
.51
.26
.73
.48
.70
.54
1
1
.70
.54
3.52
5.33
1,641.54
13.. 73
25.14
3.52
5.33
Jan, '53-Sep. '67.Jan. '53-Sep. '67..
.83
1.00
.50
.77
.63
.57
.80
1.35
1
2
.80
.76
2.89
2.32
1.54 13.54
1.63 16.00
2.89
3.65
*54 Sales of retail stores
96 Unfilled orders durable goods industries
55. Wholesale prices, industrial
commodities
58. Wholesale prices, manufactured goods
Jan. '53-Sep. '67. .
Jan. '53-Sep. '67. .
.89
1.44
.76
.53
.47
1.28
1.62
.41
2
1
.93
.41
3. 15
,5.68
1.59 14,67
1.59 J.2..57
3.72
i>.68
Jan. '53-Sep. '67. .
Jan. '53-Sep. '67..
.17
.20
.11
.16
.13
.12
.84
1.26
1
2
.84
.79
4.09
3.26
1.66
1.80
9.26
10.35
4.09
4.49
114. Treasury bill rate
116. Corporate bond yields
Jan. '53-Sep. '67..
Jan. ' 59-Sep. '67- .
Jan. '53-Sep. '67. .
Jan. '53-Seo 'fi7. .
6.42
1.75
1.65
4.69
1.39
1.29
o n^
4.32
.94
.96
1.09
1.47
1.35
it ni
2
3
.71
.68
.94
a-i
2.59
2.67
2.79
1.71
1.76
1.93
6. 52
11.56
7.65
0
1
3.72
4.08
3.89
j m*
!f!
47 Industrial production
'"52 Personal income
53. Wage and salary income in mining, manufacturing,
and construction
*816 Manufacturing and trade sales
117. Municioal bond vields
0
/Q
See footnotes and definitions of measures at end of part 1.
68
T
1 &
2
•a
£-3
£JQ
Appendix C.-AVERAGE CHANGES AND RELATED MEASURES FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERlES-Continued
Part 1.-Average Percentage Changes-Continued
Average duration of run
(ADR)
T/c
Monthly series
Period
covered
ci
T
c
7/c
for
MCD
span
MCD
CI
1
C
MCD
MONTHLY SERlES-Continued
LAGGING INDICATORS
*502. Unemployment rate, 15 weeks and over
Jan. '53-Sep. '67..
505. Machinery and equipment sales and business
construction expenditures
Jan. '53-Sep. '67. .
*71. Book value, manufacturing and trade inventories . . Jan.
. '53-Sep. '67. .
65. Book value, manufacturers' inventories.
of finished goods
. — Jan. '53-Sep. '67. .
6.26
5.03
1.77
.52
1.43
.18
.62
Jan. '53-Sep. '67..
Jan. '53-Sep. '67..
1.26
2
.63
•4.09
1.56
6.77
5.65
.91
.49
1.57
.37
2
1
.80
.37
1.89
6.77
1.48
1.59
17.60
25.14
3.13
6.77
.29
.55
.53
1
.53
3.59
1.43
16.00
3.59
.59
.82
.46
.10.
.32
.80
1.44
.13
2
1
.89
.13
2.48
13.54
1.64
1.64
6.07
25.14
4.07
13.54
Jan. '53-Sep. '67..
July'61-Sep.'67..
.97
.56
.50
.21
.82
.48
.62
.43
1
1
.62
.43
3.67
10.57
1.52
2.00
25.14
6.73
3.67
10.57
Jan. '53-Sep. '67..
Jan.'53-0ct.'67..
.19
3.58
.12
3.36
.15
.90
.78
3.74
1
4
.78
.90
4.19
1.82
1.64
1.62
10.35
11.80
4.19
3.41
Oct. '62-Sep.'67..
Jan.'57-Sep. '67 • •
Jan.'53-0ct.'67.
July '53-Sep. '67 .
Jan. '56-Sep. '67.
Jan.'53-$ep.'67.
Jan. '53-Sep, '67 .
12.55
6.44
2.87
13.58
26.22
21.39
20.91
12.43
6.23
2.69
13.32
26.08
21.27
20.82
1.22
1.75
.87
1.37
2.00
1.74
2.61
10.17
3.55
3.09
9.74
13.04
12.25
7.98
6
4
4
6
6
6
6
(a)
.92
.73
C1)
C1)
(X)
f1)
1.44
1.60
1.79
1.44
1.43
1.56
1.48
1,37
1.51
1.62
1.47
1.46
1.48
1.43
11.80
9.14
11.80
8.50
9.33
8.80
9.78
2.35
2.84
3.48
2.06
1.96
2.44
2.59
Jan.'53-Sep.'67..
Jan. '53-Sep. '67. .
.99
2.04
.85
1.77
.46
.96
1.84
1.84
2
3
.95
.72
2.84
2.05
1.54
1.57
8.80
11.00
4.61
4.35
Jan. '53-Sep. '67-.
.93
.60
.65
.93
1
.93
2.84
1.63
9.26
2.84
Jan. '53-Sep. '67..
5.54
.80
1
.80
3.26
1.52
8.38
3.26
Jan, '53-Sep. '67..
.36
.30
.18
1.67
2
.92
2.38.
1.60
19.56
3.72
123.
122.
121.
126.
125.
128.
127.
Canada, industrial production
Jan. '53-Sep. '67 * •
United Kingdom, industrial production
Jan. '53-Sep. '67..
OECD European countries, industrial production. . . Jan. '53-Sep. '67-France industrial production.
Jan. '53-Sep. '67West Germany, industrial production
Jan. ' 53-Sep. '67 ••
Japan, industrial production
Jan. ' 53-Sep. '67.Italy, industrial production.
Jan. '53-Sep, ' 6 7 - -
.81
1.04
.82
1.19
1.44
1.69
1.43
.67
.98
.74
1.07
1.32
1.17
1.28
,55
.37
.47
.62
.60
1.23
.72
1.21
2.63
1.58
1.71
2.20
.95
1.78
2
3
2
2
3
1
2
.56
.94
.75
.87
.63
.95
.98
*f.29
2.38
3.45
3.45
2.29
3.59
2.79
1.41
1.45
1.44
1.48
1,48
1.39
1.66
10,35
8.80
25.14
16.00
16.00
13.54
29.33
6.48
4.14
6.25
9.21
4.97
3.59
4.07
133.
132.
136.
135.
138.
137.
Canada, consumer prices
United Kingdom, consumer prices
France, consumer prices
West Germany, consumer prices
Japan, consumer prices
Italy, consumer prices
Jan, '53-Sep. '67..
Jan. '53-Sep. '67..
San. '53-Sep. '67..
Jan. '53-Sep. '67..
Jan. '53- Sep. '67,.
Jan. '53-Sep. '67..
.25
.45
.52
.32
.81
.33
.31
.49
.44
.36
.74
.35
.19
.27
.39
.22
.38
.31
1.66
1.82
1.14
1.65
1.95
1.14
2
3
2
3
3
2
.93
.73
.59
.75
.69
.61
9.26
6.29
7.04
8.00
3.09
19.56
2.00
1.68
1.54
1.98
1.64
1.80
11.00
14.67
8.80
11.73
10.35
8.38
12.50
8.70
7,61
11.60
6.96
25.00
143.
142.
146.
145.
148
147.
Canada, stock prices. . .
United Kingdom, stock prices
France, stock prices. . .
West Germany, stock prices
Japan stock prices
Italy, stock prices
Jan. '53-Sep. '67 - •
Jan, '53-Sep. '67- •
Jan. '53-Sep. '67..
Jan. '53-Sep. '67-.
Jan. ' 53-Sep. '67Jan. '53-Sep. '67..
2.77
3.13
4.00
3.34
3.60
3.78
2.13
2.49
3.35
2.03
2.44
3.00
1.33
1.48
1.79
.86
1.07
1.59
2
2
3
1
2
3
.87
.90
.66
.86
.64
.72
3.26
2.63
2.48
3.52
3.26
2.44
1.78
1,71
1.68
1.85
1.68
1.85
11.00
8.00
7.33
7.33
7.-04
8.80
*62. Labor cost per unit of output manufacturing ......
66. Consumer installment delbt
*72. Commercial and indus. loans outstanding, weekly
-reporting large commercial banks
118 Mortgage yields residential
3.98
SERIES UNCLASSIFIED BY CYCLICAL TIMING
81. Consumer prices
86. Exports excluding military aid3.
861. Export orders, durables except motor vehicles
and parts
862. Export orders, nonelectrical machinery
87. General imports3
91. Defense Department obligations total
90. Defense Dept. obligations, procurement
99. New orders defense products industries
92. Military contract awards in U.S.
SERIES UNCLASSIFIED BY CYCLICAL TIMING
AND ECONOMIC PROCESS
851. Ratio, inventories to sales, mfg. and trade
852. Ratio, unfilled orders to shipments, durable goods. .
853. Ratio, production of business equipment to production of consumer goods
855. Ratio, nonagricultural job openings unfilled to
number of persons unemployed
856. Ratio, average hourly earnings of production
workers in manufacturing to consumer prices. ....
3.33
4.15
INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS
1.61
1.68
1.87
2.37
2.29
1.89
3.98
3.72
4.14
3.52
4.49
5.12
See footnotes and definitions of measures at end of part 1.
69
Appendix C.-AVERAGE CHANGES AND RELATED MEASURES FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES-Continued
Part l.-Average Percentage Changes-Continued
Average duration of run
(ADR)
I/C
Period
covered
Quarterly series
Cl
T
c
T/C
QCD
for
QCD
span
——
Cl
1
i
C, 1 QCD
QUARTERLY SERIES
LEADING INDICATORS
1L New capital appropriations, manufacturing
*16. Corporate profits after taxes
22. Ratio, profits to income originating,
corporate, all industries . . . .
18. Profits per dollar of sales, manufacturing
110. Total private borrowing
, .,
IQ'53-IIIQ'67.....
IQ'53-IHQ'67
IQ'53-IIIQ'67
IQ'53-HIQ'67
IQ'53-IIIQ'67
9.31
5.16
4.62
2.77
6.89
3.99
.67
.69
1
1
.67
.69
3.05
3.05
1.29
1.29
3 . 41
4 „ $3
3.05
3.05
4.oa
2.54
3.41
6.17
2.95
3.67
8.16
.86
.93
.76
1
1
1
.86
.93
.76
2.512
2.64
2.23
1.26
1.32
1.29
5.27
3.87
3.62
2.52
2.64
2.23
1.46
1.11
.23
.30
6.44
1.35
3 AT
39
* -*&.
1
"37
JL * J>
f
1
]_
i
.L
.23
.30
o/
. fcH
1
PQ
cL * £,
3
1 * J,O
1A
J,
5.59
10.95
ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
49. GNP in current dollars
*50. GNP in 1958 dollars
1.54
1.23
1.40
5.36
.34
.33
.84
5.21
.16
1
• *>L
<£*+•
.16
IQ'53-IIIQ'67
3.13
.74
2.91
.26
1
IQ'53-II!Q'67
IQ'53-IIIQ'67
.88
2.23
.42
1.02
.72
2.05
.58
.50
1
1
951. Fed. receipts, nat'l income and product acct. . .
952. Fed. expenditures, nat'l income and product acct.
101. National defense purchases, current dollars
.IQ'53-IVQ'67(
IQ'53-IVQ'67
IQ'53-HIQ'67
2.47
2.13
2.33
.87
.91
.82
2.25
1.88
1.99
.39
.49
.41
1
SERIES UNCLASSIFIED BY CYCLICAL TIMING
AND ECONOMIC PROCESS
850. Ratio, output to capacity, mfg
854. Ratio, personal saving to disposable
personal income
857. Vacancy rate in total rental housing
IQ'53-IIIQ'67
2.18
.85
1.77
.48
IQ'53-IIIQ'67*-"IQ'56-IIIQ'67
8.50
3.78
6.66
2.21
IQ'53-IIIQ'67
IQ'53-IIIQ'67
97. Backlog of capital appropriations, manufacturing. |lQ'53-HIQ'67.f...
«* » *=(• A,
. UU
nfiO
a. 29
6,44
6 . 44
<\ "j f\r\
tiu
U .AD
r-L<-L
. UW
~>^ .<n*fj,
4.14
1.32
xBO
4.14
.26
5.80
1.41
<j.SQ
s.80
.58
.50
3.05
2-64
1.23
1.49
4.46
3.62
3. OS
3.47
3.93
2.76
1.44
1.26
1.23
5.90
5.36
4.83
3.4?
3.93
1
.39
.49
.41
1
.48
2.90
1.41
3. B?
3.90
2
1
.52
.90
1.57
2.09
1.29
1.44
3.h2
3.29
3.17
2.09
LAGGING INDICATORS
*61, Business expenditures, new plant and
equipment
68. Labor cost (cur. dol.) per unit of gross product
(1958 dol.), nonfinancial corporations
*67. Bank rates on short-term business loans
2.64
SERIES UNCLASSIFIED BY CYCLICAL TIMING
4.57
2-47
1.46
.90
1
a. 76
x
*Saries included in the 1$66 NBEK "short list" of 25 indicators.
Not shown for series when MCD is "6" or Hf.o:re.
2
3
Bimonthly series; average percentage changes, MCD and average durations of run are for bimonthly spans.
Mfeasv*res "based
on data adjusted for abnormalities during the periods December 1962-March 1963 and December 1964-May 1965 due to effects of
strikes.
BRIEF DEFINITIONS OF MEASURES SHOWN IN PART 1
The following are brief definitions of the measures shown
in part 1 of this table. More complete explanations appear in
Electronic Computers and Business Indicators, by Julius
Shiskin, issued as Occasional Paper 57 by the National Bureau
of Economic Research, 1957 (reprinted from Journal of
Business, October 1957).
"CIW is the average month-to-month (or quarter-toquarter) percentage change, without regard to sign, in the
seasonally adjusted series.
"I* is the same for the irregular component, obtained by
dividing the cyclical component into the seasonally adjusted
series.
"C" is the same for the cyclical component, a smooth,
flexible moving average of the $easonally adjusted series.
"MCD* (months for cyclical dominance) provides an estimate of the appropriate time span over which to observe
http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/
70
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
cyclical movements in a mommy series. It is small for smooth
series and large for irregular series. In deriving MCD, percentage changes are computed separately for the irregular
component and the cyclical component over 1- month spans
(Jan.-Feb., Feb.-Mar., etc.), 2-month spans (Jan.-Mar., Feb.Apr., etc.), up to 12-month spans. Averages, without regard
to sign, are then computed for the changes over each span.
MCD is the shortest span in months for which the average
percentage change (without regard to sign) in the cyclical
component is larger than the average percentage change
(without regard to sign) in the irregular component, and
remains so. Thus, it indicates the point at which fluctuations
in the seasonally adjusted series become dominated by
cyclical rather than irregular movements. All series with an
MCD greater than *5" are shown as "6".
Similarly, "QCD" provides an estimate of the appropriate
time span over which to observe cyclical movements in
quarterly series. It is the shortest span (in quarters) for
which the average percentage change (without regard to sign)
BRIEF DEFINITIONS OF MEASURES SHOWN IN PART I—Continued
in the cyclical component is larger than the average percentage change (without regard to sign) in the irregular
component, and remains so.
"T/C* is a measure of the relative smoothness (small values)
or irregularity (large values) of the seasonally adjusted series.
For monthly^series, it is shown for 1-month sgans and for
spans of the period of MCD. When MCD is "6", nq_I/C ratio is
shown for the MCD period. For quarterly series, I/C is shown
for 1-quarter spans and QCD spans.
"Average Duration of Run" (ADR) is another measure of
smoothness and is equal to the average number of consecutive
monthly changes in the same direction in any series of observations. When there is no change between 2 months, a change
in the same direction as the preceding change is assumed. The
ADR is shown for the seasonally ad justed series CI, irregular
component I, cyclical component C, and the MCD curve. The
MCD curve is an unweighted moving average (with the number
of terms equal to MCD) of the seasonally adjusted series.
A comparison of these measures of ADR with the expected
ADR of a random series gives an indication of whether the
changes approximate those of a random series. Over 1-month
intervals in a random series, the expected value of the ADR is
1.5. The actual value of ADR falls between 1.36 and 1.75 about
95 percent of the time. Over 1-month intervals in a moving
average (MCD) of a random series, the expected value of ADR
is 2.0. For example, the ADR of CI is 1.73 for the series on
average weekly initial claims, State unemployment insurance
(series 5). This indicates that 1-month changes in the seasonally adjusted series, on the average, reverse sign about
as often as expected in a random series. The ADR measures
shown in the next two columns, 1.48 for I and 12.57 for C,
suggest that the seasonally adjusted series has been
successfully separated into an essentially random component
and a cyclical (nonrandom) component. Finally, ADR is 3.95
for the MCD moving average. This indicates that a 2-month
moving average of the seasonally adjusted series (2 months
being the MCD span) reverses direction, on the average,
about every 4 months. The increase in the ADR from 1.48
for CI to 3.95 for the MCD moving average indicates that,
for this series, month-to-month changes in the MCD moving
average usually reflect the underlying cyclical trend movements of the series, whereas the month-to-month changes in
the seasonally adjusted series usually do not.
Appendix C.-AVERAGE CHANGES AND RELATED MEASURES FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES-Continued
Part 2.-Average Unit Changes
t /f\
I/C
Monthly series
Period
covered
Unit of
measure
CI
C
1
I/C
MCD
for
MCD
span
Average duration
of run
1
(ADR
\r\ui\f)
CI
1
C
MCD
MONTHLY SERIES
LEADING INDICATORS
*31. Change in book value, manufacturing
and trade inventories
Jan. '53-Sep. '67.
Ann. rate,
bil. dol..
20. Change in book value of manufacturers'
Jan.'53-Sep. '67> . . . do. . .
inventories of materials, supplies
25. Change in unfilled orders, dur. goods industries. Jan, '53-Sep. '67. Bil. dol. .
98. Change in money supply and time deposits .... Jan. '53-Sep. ''67- Ann. rate,
percent .
Jan. '53-Sep. '67. . . .do, . .
85. Change in U S money supply
Jan. '55-Sep. '67 . Ann. rate,
33. Change in mortgage debt
bil. dol..
*1_13. Change in consumer installment debt. ....... Jan.'53-Sep. '67 - . . . d o . . .
Aug. '59-Sep. '67. . . . do. . .
112. Change in business loans
3.79
3,67
.77
4.78
5
.96
1.53
1.45
6.29
2.65
1.51
1,45
.29-
.13
5.04
3.63
6
5
(i)
,80
1.63
1.69
1.54
1.60
6.52
8.00
2.95
3.44
.50
.47
2.49
2.89
2.49
2.92
.33
.37
7.45
7.88
6
6
f1)
C1)
1.47
1.44
1.40 11.00
1.42 11.00
2.85
2,85
1.34
1.26
3.43
2.64
9.78
3
3
6
.98
.90
(x)
1.49
1.64
1.56
1.35 10.13
1.48 11.00
1.56 10.78
2.94
3.16
3.83
2.77
2.72
.37
.30
.28
93.44
75.38
46.88
1.61
2
.96
2.07
1.59
9.26
3.13
. . . do. . . 57.74
55.59
15.55
-3.58
4
.86
1.62
1.57
9.32
3.55
.86
.78
ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
93. Free reserves
Jan. '53-Sep. '67- Mil. dol. .
SERIES UNCLASSIFIED BY CYCLICAL TIMING
88. Merchandise trade balance 2.
Jan. '53-Oct. '67.
See footnotes and definitions of measures at end of part 2.
71
Appendix C.-AVERAGE CHANGES AND RELATED MEASURES FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES-Continued
Part 2,-Average Unit Changes-Continued
Period
covered
Quarterly series
Unit of
measure
Cl
C
1
T/c
QCD
1/F
for
QCD
span
Average duration of run
(ADR)
Cl
1
C
QCD
QUARTERLY SERIES
LEADING INDICATORS
21. Change in business inventories, all
industries
»
IQ'53-NIQ'67..
Ann. rate,
bil. dot..
2.59
1.69
1.50
1.12
2
.49
1.76
1,35
4.46
3.00
IQ'53-1110'67 ..
IQ'60-IIIQ'67 ..
MiLdol... 307-80 213.76 199.96
...do... 57^37 340.19 324.11
1,07
1.05
2
2
.48
.66
1.71
1.88
1.26
}..!&
3.0^
2.50
2.07
IQ'53-IHQ'67 • •
Ann. rate,
bil.doU
.68
I
.68
2.23
1.38
3.62
2.23
SERIES UNCLASSIFIED BY CYCLICAL TIMING
89. U.S. balance of payments:
b
fiffirial sptflpmpnK ha^te . . . . « . •
95 Fed balance nat'l income and product acct
2.61
1.36
2.00
a. 71
1
*SerIts included in the 1966 N3ER "short list" of 25 indicators.
Not shown for series when MOD is "6" or IKO?C.
Measures based on data adjusted for abnormalities during the periods December 1962-MaroJi 1963 and December 1964-May ;i 965 due
to effects of strikes..
_______
BRIEF DEFINITIONS OF MEASURES SHOWN IN PART 2
The measures in part 2 are computed by an additive
method to avoid the distortion caused by zero and negative
data.
Thus, "Cl" is the average month-to-month (or quarterto-quarter) change in the seasonally adjusted series. This
average is computed without regard to sign and is expressed
in the same unit of measure as the series itself.
72
"C" is the same for the cyclical component, which is a
moving average of the seasonally adjusted series.
"T" is the same for the irregular component, which is
determined by subtracting the cyclical component from the
seasonally adjusted series.
All other measures shown in part 2 have the same meaning
as in part 1.
Appendix D.-CURRENT ADIUSTMENT FACTORS FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES (MAY 1967 TO JUNE 1968)
mi r
19 68
Series
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
Dec.
84.1
98.1
73.7
89.5
84.3 101.9
87.3
95.7
138 5
94.6
94.4
119.5
102.9
81.8
101.5
5. Average weekly initial claims, State unemployment
insurance
13. New business incorporations1
106.1
14 L i abi I i ti es of bu si n ess f ai I in res
18. Profits per dollar of sales, manufacturing2.
100.4 120.0
106.1
30 Nonagricultural placements all industries'1'
33. Net change in mortgage debt held by financial
institutions and life insurance companies 3
113.1 110.3 100.7
37. Purchased materials, percent of companies
reporting higher inventories
39. Delinquency rate, 30 days and over, total
installment loans4
.
72. Commercial and industrial loans outstanding
90. Defense Department obligations, procurement
79.2
+41
104.5
81.2 107 7
104.4
+256
101.1
85.2
+38
99.2
92.1
+152
100.3
116.3
+34
97.6
113.9
-58
91.3
84.1
83.5
-129
+279
-285
-388
92.2
90.9
99.0
64 0
98.8 100.1
98 4 108 7
151 6
184.2
98.6
94.4
96.9
90.7
112 Change in business loans 5 .
301 Nonagricultural job openings unfilled
100.2 100.2
119.9 103.2
99.6
99.7
856. Ratio, average earnings to consumer prices
100.3 100.0
99.6
98.9
99.9
862 Index of export orders nonelectr6 ical machinery
D34 Profits manufacturing ( FNCB)
100 4 100 8
94 4
-9
94.4
94 3 103.9 100.2 100.3
+6
91.9
90.1
99.2
112.4
107.0
111.5
99.4
111.9
100.1 102.2
99.9
Apr.
+50
101.5
101.6
99.2
99.4
75.6
65.1
May
94 9 79 3
105.3 106.1
99 6
88 7 103.4
+13
June
80 9
97.3
97 3
105.4
119 8
111.7
106.8
+36
+262
107.6 112.8 104.2
100.9
92.6
91.8
99.5
101.1 99.6
100.9 103.6 100.4
101.8
204.0
110.1
107.2
98 7 79.0
108.6
98 2 110 1
79.4
98.8
Mar.
97.9
99.9 100.7
100 2 203 6
91 Defense Department obligations total
92 Military contract awards in U.S
89.6
99.4
96.6
98.8
99.2
Feb.
145 8 112 7 96 0
118.7
100.3
96.7
113.6
96.5
Jan.
99 3
98.4
94.3
87.6
80.2
98.1
91.5
91.5
93.0
79.2
80.4
99.6
99.8
94.6
100.6
100.1
80.7
84.1
99.4
85.5
100.3
105.7
99.7
100.1
100.4
100.4
100.4
100.1
94.2
95.3
103.8 102.1 107.4
-15
91.8
91.8
151.9
188.0
100.1 99.9
108.4 119.2
100.4
102'. 5
99.6
88.6
100.2
100.3
100.6 100.3
+17
99.9
100.2
NOTE: These data are not published by the source agency in seasonally adjusted form. Seasonal adjustments were made by the Bureau of the Census or the National
Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. They are kept current by the Bureau of the Census. Seasonally adjusted data prepared by the source agency will be substituted whenever,
they are published. For a description of the method used to compute these factors, see Bureau of the Census Technical Paper No. 15, The X-ll Variant of the Census Method
II Seasonal Adjustment Program.
1
Factors are products of seasonal and trading-day factors.
Seasonally adjusted data resulting from the application of these
combined factors may differ slightly from those obtained by separate applications of seasonal and trading-day factors due to
rounding.
2
Quarterly series; figures are placed in middle month of quarter.
3
These quantities, in millions of dollars, are to be subtracted from the month-to-month net change in the unadjusted monthly
totals to yield the seasonally adjusted net change. They were computed by the additive version of the X-ll variant of the Census
Method 31 seasonal adjustment program.
^Bimonthly series. Data are for even-numbered months (February, April, June, etc.)5
Factors apply to monthly totals before month-to-month changes are computed.
6
l-quarter diffusion index:
Figures are placed on the 1st month of the quarter. The unadjusted diffusion index is computed
and the factors, computed by the additive version of the X-ll variant of the Census Method 'E, seasonal adjustment program, are
subtracted to yield the seasonally adjusted index.
73
Appendix E.-PERCENT CHANGE FOR SELECTED SERIES OVER CONTRACTION AND EXPANSION PERIODS OF BUSINESS CYCLES: !:920 TO 1961
!l!
43. Unemployment rate,, total
Percent change: Reference peak to reference trough
Contractions;
Reference peak to
reference trough
Jan.
May
Oct.
Aug.
May
1920-July 1921
1923-July 1924
1926-Nov. 1927
1929-Mar. 1933
1937-June 1938
Fob
Nov
July
July
May
1945-Oct
1948-Qct
195S=Aug
1957° Apr
1960-Feb
,.
!.
*41. Employees
in nonagri. establishments
*47. Index
of industrial
production
(NA)
-31.6
(NA)
-ia.o
(MA)
-5.9
-31.6
-10.4
-51.8
-31.7
1945*
1949
1954s
1958
1961
-7.9
-5,1
-3,4
-4.0
-1.8
-31,4
Median:6
All contractions
;.
Excluding postwar contractions .
4 contractions since 1948 .....
-5.7
-6.5
-3.7
-16.0
-16.0
-8.5
-9.1
-14.1
-5.7
-8.8
*50. GNP
in 1958
dollars
(Q) 1
(NA)
-0.3
+ 2.3
-28.0
-B.9
(MA)
-1.6
-2.2
-3.4
-1.4
-1.9
-2.1
-1.9
49. GNP
in current
dollars
(Q)1
-19.7
-2.3
+0.4
-49.6
-11.9
;3:
*52. Personal
income
-21.9
0.0
+0.9
-50.8
-10.9
816. Manufacturing
and trade
sales
(NA)
(NA)
(MA)
(NA)
(NA)
*54. Sales
of retail
stores
-4.3
-1.9
0.0
-43,5
-17,3
-10.9
-4.0
-3,4
-4.7
-1.8
-0.2
+0.2
+0.9
-6. 8
+8,6
-0,5
-0.5
-2,4
-3.1
-2.8
-2.8
-1.3
-2.0
-2.4
+0.1
-7,0
^5.8
-7.0
-o.a
0.0
(NA)
-7.5
-7.2
July
July
Nov
Mar.
June
1921-May
1924-Qct,
1927-Aug
1933-May
1938-Feb,
1923
1926
1929
1937
19454,
Oct
Oct
Aug
Apr
194S=Nov
1949-July
1954-July
1958-May
1948 s
1953
1957
1960
Median:6
All expansions
Excluding wartime expansions . .
4 exDansions since 1945
*4l Employees
in nonagri. establishments
(WA)
(NA)
(NA)
+40.2
•H45.9
+17.2
-H7.8
*47. Index
of industrial
production
+64,2
+30.4
+24.1
+119.9
+183.3
+8.9
+6.9
+21.9
+50.0
+19.7
+ 25.2
+17.5
+13.0
+35.2
+ 26.6
4-1 •=! - n
4-21.6
*50.GNP
in 1958
dollars
(Q) 1
(MA)
+12.4
+12.6
+42.1
(NA)
+3.3
+ 28.8
+11. a
+11.4
+12.3
+12.1
±n A
49. GNP
in current
dollars
(Q) 1
*52. Per- *816. Manufacturing
sonal
and trade
income
sales
(.NA)
(M)
+25.1
+14.7
+13.3
+73.9
+169,6
+29.6
+13.2
+12.2
+76.3
+157.3
(NA)
(HA)
(NA)
+34.9
+44.1
+22.4
+15,1
+28.5
+41.4
+22.1
+13.3
+ 27.5
+20.9
+26.7
+21.3
4.Q& A
j,D^ 1
nit; at
rc« k
p
/( ( ' \
l^l
' i !'<
P
+ P f ),4
l'\ *
"0,0
;" ,4
ro.o
n ,q
'>/>
?
u .<
i2, r
l.t
+4. i
3"; <••
/3., 1
-2.7
S1
-2.2
"2,6
-1.4
t J/*
l-3.<>
t-3.^
3.9
4.0
^
4/L
3.3
7.9
6.0
7,4
6,9
13,4
'»
7.2
7.6
7,2
*43, Unemployment rate, total
*54. Sales
of retail
stores
Change
in rate,
trough
to peak
+ 15.7
M."
+9.9
+3.6
Ilito at
trough
' ' (V).- ' *>
*•' (f t i
%-3.t
2
-0.*5
+69,2
+105.4
-14.;
-18. )
; ),o
+63.8
+25.6
+ 20.3
+11.9
+0.3
+50.0
+22.6
t-16.2
1. 1
' '.i '
+29.6
+19.4
fWAl
+ 20.5
+16.0
±.0^ n
(MA)
R.ite at
trough
Vvi
a.i*
Percent change: Reference trough to reference peak
Expansions:
Reference trough to
reference peak
Change
in rate,
peak to
trough
c
=-5.3
-1 , f "
_~a'.3 I
-3."
-2,1
o n
|
h.O
.M
f
'.i
(>. »
Rite at
peak
^3
3 p
i!l
p 3
.3.2
11 , a
1.1
3
3.6
2.6
4.2
3.1
3.3
3.7
f
3 a
NOTE; For series with a "months for cyclical dominance" (MCD)of T or "2" (series41,43,47,52,and816), the figure for the reference peak (truugt') month is used as the
base. For series with an MCD of "3" or more (series 54), the average of the 3 months centered on the reference peak (trough) month is used as the base. The base
for quarterly series (series 49 and 50) is the reference peak (trough) quarter. See also MCD footnote to appendix C.
*Series included in the 1956 NBER "short Itsfof 25
indicators.
NA~Not available.
1
The moot recent quarterly reference dates are as follows: 2d quarter 1958 (trough); 2d quarter 1960 (peak); ni'd ;Un
1961 (trough). For ear-liar dates, nee Business Cycle Indicators (NBER) vol. 1, p.670.
2
Baaod on average for the calendar year.
3
Diff©rs from figure for same date in expansion (contraction) part of table because of change in series used.
*World War IT contraction or expansion period.
^Korean War contraction or expansion period.
6
The median is an average of the middle 2 or 3 Items,
Source: National Bureau of "Economic Research, Inc.
74
Appendix F-H1STORICAL DATA FOR SELECTED SERIES
This appendix contains historical data for Business Cycle Developments series extending back to 1945 or to the earliest date thereafter for which data are available. Data are published in this appendix for f a )
new series which have been'added to Busmess Cycle Developments, (b) series which have been revised recently, and (c) series which have not been shown historically for a long period of time. See the Index,
Series Finding Guide, for the latest issue In which historical data for each series were published. Current data are shown in tables 2 and 3. Data are seasonally adjusted unless the symbol® (indicatingunadjusted
data) follows the series title.
Monthly
Quarterly
Year
Jan.
Feb.
Apr.
Mar.
June
May
Annual
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
Dec.
IQ
7. P R I V A T E NONFARM H O U S I N G STARTS
( A N N U A L R A T E , THOUSANDS)
II Q
' Hi Q
IV Q
A V E R A G E FOR P E R I O D
L94-5. ,
1946..
1947. .
1,040
1,052
1,085
1,074
1,167
1,032
1,057
1,039
1,028
1,090
985
1,174
972
1,252
1,007
1,355
958
1,532
974
1,571
957
1,557
991
1,447
1,097
1,053
1,023
1,101
979
1,380
974
1,525
1,018
1,265
1948..
1949. .
1950..
1,385
1,196
1,883
1,200
1,137
1,834
1,379
1,171
1,976
1,501
1,292
1,945
1,450
1,319
2,052
1,441
1,341
2,042
1,419
1,384
2,051
1,329
1,500
2,121
1,303
1,603
1,821
1,190
1,662
1,605
1,196
1,785
1,561
1,218
1,824
1,90C
1,321
1,168
1,898
1,464
1,317
2,013
1,350
1,496
1,998
1,201
1,757
1,689
1,334
1»434
1,899
1951..
1952..
1953..
1,928
1,388
1,484
1,638
1,516
1,460
1,481
1,483
1,506
1,352
1,412
1,498
1,359
1,408
1.425
1,419
1,353
1,380
1,257
1,438
1,346
1,334
1,443
1,324
1,456
1,483
1,348
1,386
1,513
1,342
1,324
1,475
1,383
1,330
1,476
1,343
1,682
1,462
1,483
1,377
1,391
1,434
1,349
1,455
1,339
1,347
1,488
1,356
1,439
1,449
1,403
1954..
1955*.
1956..
1,358
1,757
1,441
1,417
1,664
1,444
1,411
1,684
I f 401
1,433
1,708
1,408
1,412
1,730
1,375
1,498
1,704
1,325
1,559
1,632
1,289
1,563
1,625
1,313
1,616
1,560
1,234
1,610
1,490
1,266
1,730
1,434
1,212
1,807
1,431
1,184
1,395
1,702
1,429
1,448
1,714
1,369
1,580
1,612
1,279
1,716
1,452
1,221
1,535
1,620
1,324
1957..
1958. .
1959..
1,151
1,170
1,562
1,168
1,107
1,512
1,173
1,108
1,561
1,147
1,154
1,578
1,174
1,191
1,481
1,175
1,236
1,498
1,191
1,337
1,525
1,193
1,374
1,395
1,191
1,451
1,567
1,204
1,472
1,332
1,162
1,593
1,344
1,146
1,598
1,531
1,164
1,128
1,545
1,165
1,194
1,519
1,192
1,387
1,496
1,171
1,554
1,402
1,173
1,316
1,490
I960..
1961. .
1962. .
1,444
1,266
1,470
1,508
1,217
1,296
1,107
1,270
1,422
1,267
1,136
1,494
1,271
1,223
1,515
1,213
1,333
1,365
1,195
1,304
1,409
1,365
1,315
1,531
1,084
1,425
1,300
1,144
1,309
1,410
1,251
1,377
1,634
1,037
1 ,336
1,521
1,353
1,251
1,396
1,250
1,231
1,458
1,215
1,348
1,413
1,144
1,341
1,522
1,240
1,293
1,447
1963..
1964. .
1965. .
1,244
1,612
1,384
1,474
I t 819
1,418
1,482
1,534
1,4,29
1,615
1,390
1,432
1,644
1,456
1,461
1,534
1,562
1,476
1,611
1,517
1,484
1,555
1,463
1,382
1,709
U395
1,453
1,833
1,546
1,438
1,531
1,4,60
1,443
1,499
1,458
1,544
1,400
1,655
1,410
1,598
1,469
1,456
1,625
1,458
1,440
1,621
1,49S
1,475
1,561
1,519
1,445
1966..
1,403
1,381
1,400
1,356
1,232
1,161
1,061
1,088
1,020
824
956
910
1,395
1,250
1,056
897
1,149
10. CONTRACTS AND O R D E R S , P L A N T AND E Q U I P M E N T
TOTAL FOR P E R I O D
( B I L L I O N DOLLARS)
1947. .
1948..
1949. .
1950. .
1.50
1.31
1.60
1.72
1.42
1.60
1.66
1.41
1.74
1,84
1.21
1.74
1.59
1.25
2.16
1.84
1.37
2.C9
1.68
1.26
2.53
1.60
1.36
3.20
1.59
1.49
3.01
1.62
1.43
2.71
1.60
1.61
2.72
1.59
1.46
3. 00
4.88
4.14
4.94
5.27
3.83
5,99
4.87
4.11
8.74
4.81
4.5C
8.43
19.83
16. S8
28.10
1951..
*952.,
1953..
3.43
2.51
2.84
3.51
2.55
2.88
3.19
2.59
2.64
3.21
2.56
2.88
4.36
2.39
2.76
2.98
2.69
2.16
2.84
2.76
2.66
2.73
2.48
2.23
2.36
3.34
2.57
2.63
2.50
2.72
2.63
2,36
2.34
2.83
2.83
2.14
10.13
7.65
8.36
10.55
7.64
7*80
7.93
8.58
7.46
8.C9
7.69
7.2C
36.70
31.56
30.82
1954. .
1955..
1956..
2.20
2.50
3.35
2.24
2.72
3.26
1.91
3.15
3.28
1.96
2.93
3.40
2.00
2.80
3.56
2.C5
2,99
3.60
2.15
2.97
3.43
2.15
3.15
3.41
2.31
3.33
3.33
2.43
3.20
3.34
2.25
3.45
3.79
2.4C
3.45
3.58
6.35
8.37
9.89
6.01
8.72
10.56
6.ei
9.45
10,17
7.08
10. 1G
10.71
26.05
36*64
41,33
1957..
1958..
1959. .
3.65
2.77
3.09
3.55
2.67
3.19
3.52
2.66
3.73
3.15
2.69
3.35
3.29
2.72
3.46
3.13
2.65
3.54
3.06
2,75
3.61
3.13
3.13
3.22
2.83
3.14
3.63
2.89
3,04
3.50
2.89
3.00
3,30
2.74
2.91
3.49
10.72
8.10
10.01
9.57
8.26
10.35
9.02
9.C2
10.46
8.52
8.95
10.29
37.83
34.33
41,11
I960..
1961..
1962..
3.27
3.51
3.71
3.35
3.39
3.98
3.27
3.20
3.71
3.52
3,28
3.96
3.51
3.27
3.76
3.41
3,39
3.66
3.41
3.57
3.72
3.41
3.66
3.61
3.44
3.40
3.56
3.34
3.48
3.66
3.20
3.66
3.62
3.49
3. 50
3.99
9.89
10.10
11.40
10.44
9.94
11,38
10.26
10.63
10.69
10.03
10,64
11.47
40.62
41.31
45.14
1963. .
1964. .
1965..
3.84
4.38
4.72
3.82
4.14
4.67
3.75
4.11
4.84
3.98
4.36
4.98
4.28
4.63
5.02
3.96
4.64
4.81
3.94
4.52
5.16
3.91
4.53
4.90
4.08
4.51
5.15
4.17
4.56
5.13
4.32
4.92
5.05
4.56
4.94
5.35
11.41
12.63
14.23
12.22
13.63
14.81
11.93
13.56
15.21
13. C5
14.42
15.53
43.61
54.24
59,78
1966..
5.46
5.71
5«66
5.91
5.77
5.57
6.10
5.87
6.28
5.76
5.52
5.45
16.83
17.25
18.25
16.73
69.06
NOTE:
The series on this page contain no revisions; but, where available, data not previously shown for 19-45 through 194-7 have been added.
(MAY 1968)
75
Appendix F-HISTORICAL DATA FOR SELECTED SERIES-Continued
This appendix contains historical data for Business Cycle Developments series extending back to 1945 or to the earliest date thereafter for which data are available. Data are published in this appendix far (a)
new series which have been added to Business Cycle Developments, (b) series which have been revised recently, and (c) series which have not been shown historically for a tang period of tinie. See the Index,
Series Finding Guide, for the latest issue in which historical data for each series were published. Current data are shown in tables 2 and 3, Data are seasonally adjusted unless the symbol® (indiCtitinj;unadjusted
data) follows the series title.
Nbnthly
Quar eriy
Annual
Year
Jan.
Feb.
(Air.
June
V
SALES
^54.
1945
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov,
Dec.
1I1Q
«Q
l<?
OF RETAIL STORES
(MILLION DOLLARS)
IV Q
L- -__ ..
TOTA L FDR PUMOD
r"~"
»
10,609 10,792 10,842
29,204
30,154
3C,77%
32,243
122,380
11,173 11,257 11,331 11,230 11,240 11,159 11,404
11,217 10,993 11,106 11,263 11,160 11,221 11,052
12,345 13,300 13,349 12,694 12,358 12,069 12,959
32,770
33,239
34r602
33,289
33,730
35,977
33 ,816
33,342
39,343
33,8C3
33,433
37,386
133,680
133,764
147,308
1951.. 1 3 , 8 8 5 13,716 13,021 12,735 12,840 12,792 12,651 12,936 12,853 13,C94 13,099 12,924
1952.. 1 3 , 0 3 0 13,274 12,890 13,203 13,708 1 3 , 8 8 5 13,512 13,212 1 3 , 4 3 0 14,C47 13,891 14,266
1953.. 14,3*32 14,325 14,41$ i4,2ia 14,167 14,146 14,090 14,017 14,007 14,060 13,855 13,719
40,622
39,194
43,095
33,367
40,801
42,531
38,442
40,1-54
4 2 , IK
39,117
42,204
41,634
156,548
162,353
169,374
14,055 14,020 13»99i 1 3 , 9 5 7 14,272 13,991 13,996 14,073 14,C81 14,406 14,671
14,896 1§,Q03 I 5 t 2 5 ! j 15,260 15,126 15,404 15,418 15,677 15,715 15,652 15,531
15,370 15,663 15,516 15,771 15,797 1 5 , 7 4 4 1 5 , 8 2 6 15,906 15,933 16,106 16,193
41,787
44,666
46,523
42,220
45,641
47,084
42,06C
46,V59
47,476
43,158
46,898
48,232
169,225
183,704
189,320
16,782 16,699 16,647
16,662 17,048 IT, 60S
18,178 17,699 17,617
49,417
49,352
53,155
49,847
49,528
54,057
53,607
SO, 3^4
54, 5 (1C
50,128
91,315
53,494
199,999
200,539
215,206
18,312 18,128 18,190 18,173 18,333 18,071 1 7 , 9 3 9
18,091 18,234 18,322 18,416 18,527 18,761 18,827
19,341 19,597 19,654 19,880 19,301 20,062 2 0 , 2 0 4
54,390
53,796
57,370
5S,264
53,980
58,338
94, 4 'U
54,9.*F2
59.1:11
f
>4»343
96,115
60,167
216,488
218,863
235,006
1963.. 20,319 2 0 , 2 2 6 2 0 , 3 7 4 2 0 , 2 9 2 20,178 20,517 2 0 , 6 3 4 2 0 , 5 8 1 2 0 , 4 8 9 2 0 , 7 7 4 2 0 * 7 2 7 2 0 , 9 5 2
1964,. 2 1 , 0 2 3 21,408 21,303 2 1 , 4 4 2 21,701 21,797 2 1 , 8 6 2 2 2 , 2 2 7 2 2 , 3 3 3 21,429 21,690 2 2 , 7 6 6
1965,. 2 2 , 9 3 6 2 3 , 0 7 6 2 2 , 8 5 6 2 2 , 8 4 9 23,317 2 3 , 3 2 2 2 3 , 6 6 8 2 3 , 5 8 5 2 3 , 7 5 3 2 4 , 3 3 0 2 4 , 6 4 7 2 4 , 7 0 4
60,919
63,736
68,868
60,987
64,940
69,488
6U7C4
66,4i!2
71,006
62,453
65f 665
73 1 68 1
246,063
260,983
383,043
1966,. 2 5 , 0 8 1 2 5 , 0 4 9 2 5 , 5 3 6 2 4 , 9 4 9 2 4 , 4 7 5 2 5 , 3 9 4 2 5 , 3 6 2 2 5 , 5 7 2 2 5 , 7 0 3 2 5 , 5 5 0 25,610 2 5 , 3 6 8
75,666
74,816
76,637
76,528
303,649
1947. .
9,583
9,852
9,769
9 , 9 4 7 10,061 10,146 10,176 10,141 10,462
1948.. 10t 883 10,866 il,02t 11,210 10,906
1949.. 10,949 1 1 , 099lit 191 11,290 11,223
1950.. 11,339 11,589 11,674 11,716 11,916
1954. . 13,712
1955.. 14,765
1956.. 15,495
1957..
1958..
19S9..
16,329 16,635 16,453; 16,493 16,534 16,820 16,799 16,967 16,841
16,6^9 16,374 16,319; 1 6 , 5 3 5 16,517 16,476 16,746 16,853 16,745
1 7 , 5 8 3 17,712 17,860 17,8711 18,011 18,175 16,169 18,285 18,C46
I960.. 18,092
1961.. 17,918
1962.. 18,997
18,159
17,894
19,043
18,139 18,613 18,337
17,984 17,86ii 18,024
19,330 19,430 19,567
""" "sTT
WHOLESALE P R I C E S , INDUSTRIAL COMMODITIES®
(1957-59=100)
AVERAGE FOR PERIOD
'
194S..
1946..
1947..
§5.9
56.9
12. §
56.0
57.2
72.9
56.1
57. i
73.9
56.1
58.3
74.2
56.2
58.7
74.1
56.2
59.6
74.2
56.3
61.8
74.7
56.4
63.0
75.7
56.4
63.3
76.5
56.5
65.4
77.3
56.6
68.2
78.2
56.8
70.4
79.3
56,0
57.3
73.1
56.2
58.9
74.2
5 6. ,4
62»7
75*6
56.6
68. C
?8.3
56.3
61.7
75.3
1948. .
1949..
1950. ,
80.6
82.8
79,3
80.2
82.1
79.5
80.2,
81.6
79.5
80.6
80. a
79.6
80.6
79.6
80.2
81.0
79.1
80.7
81.7
78.8
82.0
82.7
79.0
83.6
83.0
79.0
85.5
83.1
79.0
87.0
83.3
79.0
88.1
83.2
79.1
90.1
80.3
82.2
79.4
80.7
79.8
80.2
82,5
78,9
8317
83.2
79. C
88.4
81.7
80.0
C2.9
19§1. ,
1952..
1953..
92.1
90.3
89.3
92.6
90.2
89.3
92.6
89.9
89.6
92.5
89. §
89.4
92.2
89.2
89.7
91.8
88.9
90.0
91.4
88.8
90.7
90.7
89.2
90.7
9C.7
89.4
90.6
<9C.5
90.5
90.4
89.1
90.4
90.5
89.2
90.5
92.4
90.1
89.4
92.2
89.2
89.7
90.9
89.1
90.7
90.5
69.2
90. 5
91.5
89.4
90.1
1954. .
1955. .
1956..
90,5
91.0
95.1
90.3
91.4
95.2
90.2
91.3,
95.6
90.4
91.4
96.0
SO. 4
91,2
96.1
90.2
91.3
96.0
90.3
92.0
95.9
90.3
92.8
96.7
90.3
93.6
97.2
9C.4
94.0
97.6
90.7
94,3
98.1
90.7
94.6
98.5
90.3
91*2
95.3
90.3
91.3
96.0
90.3
92.8
96.6
90.6
94.3
98.1
90.4
92.4
96.5
1957..
1958. .
1959..
98.9
99.6
100.7
99.1
99.3
100.9
99.0
99,3
101.2
99,0
99.1
101.3
98.9
99.0
IC1.4
98.9
99.0
101.2
99.3
99.2
1C1.4
99.5
99.6
101.4
99.5
99.7
101.4
99.4
99.8
101.4
99.4
100.1
101.5
99.6
100.5
101.6
99. C
99.4
100.9
98.9
99.0
101.3
99. a
99.4
101.4
99.5
10C.1
101.5
99.2
99.5
101.3
1960. .
1961..
1962, .
101.7
101.2
LOUO
101.6
101.2
100.8
101.6
101.2
100.8
101.6
101.1
100.9
1C1.2
ICO. 8
ICO. 9
101.2
100.6
100.7
101.2
100.6
100.8
101.2
100.6
100.6
101.0
IOC. 7
ice. e
101*1
IOC. 5
IOC. 7
101,0
100.7
100.7
101.0
100.9
100.7
101.6
10U2
100*9
101.3
100.8
100.8
101.1
100.6
100*7
101. C
IOC, 7
IOC. 7
101.3
100.8
100.8
1963. .
1964..
1965..
100.7
101.3
101.9
100.6
101. 2
101.9
100.6
101.1
100.5
1C1.1
102. 3
100.7
100.9
102.5
100.8
101.1
102.5
100.8
101.1
102.7
IOC. 7
101.1
102.7
IOC. 9
101.5
102.8
100.9
101.6
103.2
101.2
101.8
103.2
100.6
101.2
101.9
100.5
101.0
102.3
100.8 !
101.1
102. 6 }
101. C
102.0;
100.4
101.1
102.1
103.1
100.7
101.2
102.5
1966..
103.5
103.8
104.0
104.3
1C4.7
104.9
105.2
105.2
105.2
1G5.3
105.5
105.5
103.8
104.6
105.2
105.4
104.8
as. 2
,
NOTE:
101. e
J
Tho norloo on thla pa^o Ron tain no revision; but, where available, data not previously shown for 1943 through 1947 have been miMcc"
(MAY 1968)
76
Appendix F-HISTORICAL DATA FOR SELECTED SERIES-Continued
This appendix contains historical data for Business Cycle Developments series extending back to 1945 or to the earliest date thereafter for which data are available. Data are published in this appendix for (a)
new series which have been added to Business Cycle Developments, (b) series which have been revised, recently, and (c) series which have not been shown historically for a long period of time. See the Index,
Series Finding Guide, for the latest issue in which historical data for each series were published. Current data are shown in tables 2 and 3. Data are seasonally adjusted unless the symbol®(indicatingunadjusted
data) follows the series title.
Monthly
Quarterly
Annual
Year
Jan.
Feb.
Mar.
Apr.
58.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
Dec.
IQ
W H O L E S A L E P R I C E S , M A N U F A C T U R E D GOODS ©
(1957-59=100)
II Q
IIIQ
IV Q
AVERAGE FOR PERIOD
1947. .
74.2
74.7
76.1
76. 1
75.8
75.9
76.3
77.2
78.5
75.2
80.0
81.2
75.0
75.9
77.3
8C.1
77.1
1948..
1949..
1950. .
82.7
83.2
79.7
81.8
82.3
80.0
02.0
82.0
80.0
82.5
81.2
80.1
£2.7
60.4
60.9
83.2
80.0
81.3
83.9
79.7
83.2
84.8
79.9
65.1
84.9
79.8
86.6
84.3
7S.6
87.4
84.1
79.5
88.4
83.9
79.6
90.7
82.2
82.5
79.9
82.8
80.5
80.8
84.5
79.8
85. C
84.1
79.6
88, 8
83.4
80,6
83.6
1951..
1952. .
1953. .
93.0
91.6
90.0
93.8
91.4
89.9
93. a
91.1
90.1
93.7
90. 7
90.0
93.6
90.7
90.5
93.1
9C.5
9G.4
92.7
90.6
91.3
92.3
91. G
91.2
92.1
91. C
91.4
92.1
9C.6
91.1
91.9
90.2
90.9
91.9
89.8
91.1
93.5
91.4
90.0
93.5
90.6
90.3
92.4
90.9
91.3
92. C
9C.2
91.0
92.8
90.0
90.7
1954. .
1955. .
1956..
91.5
91.4
94.0
91.3
91.6
94.4
91.3
91.4
94.7
91.6
91.6
95.4
91.7
91.6
95.9
91.2
91.9
95.8
91.4
92.3
95.7
91.5
92.7
96.4
91.3
93.4
97.0
91.0
93.6
97.3
91.1
93.6
97.6
91.3
93.7
97.7
91.4
91.5
94.4
91.5
91.7
95.7
91.4
92.8
96.4
91.1
93.6
97.5
91.4
92.4
96,0
1957..
1958..
1959. .
98.3
100.0
100.6
98.6
99.7
100.7
98.6
99.9
100.9
98.7
100.0
101.1
98.8
1CO.O
1C1.2
98.8
100,0
101.1
99.3
1C0.1
101.1
99.5
1C0.1
ICO. 9
99.4
ICC. I
101. 0
99.2
10G.O
IOC. 8
99.5
100.3
100.7
99.7
ICO. 5
IOC. 7
98.5
99.9
100.7
98.8
100. C
101.1
99i4
100.1
101.0
99.5
IOC. 3 '
IOC. 7
99.0
100.1
100. 9
1960. .
1961..
1962..
101.0
101,3
101.0
101.0
101.3
100.8
101.3
101.3
100.7
101.3
101.0
100.7
IC1.0
ICO. 5
ICO. 7
101.1
100.3
100.6
101.2
100.4
1G0.8
101.0
ICO. 4
1G0.7
IOC. 9
ICC. 4
101.1
101.0
IOC. 3
IOC. 7
101.0
100.4
100.7
101.0
ICC. 7
IOC.6
101.1
101.3
100.8
101.1
100.6
100.7
101. C
100.4
ICO.9
101. C
IOC.5
IOC, 7
101.1
100. 7
100,8
1963. .
1964. .
1965,.
100,6
101.3
101,8
100.4
iOl.l
101.8
100,2
100*9
1 0 J. , 8
100.0
100.9
102. 1
ICO.4
ICO.8
1C2.4
100.8
100.8
103.0
101,0
101.1
103,1
100.8
1C1.C
103. 2
ICC. 7
1C1.2
103.2
IOC.9
1C1.4
103.4
100.9
101.4
103.7
100.9
101.5
104.1
100.4
101.1
101.8
100,4
100.8
102,5
100.8
101.1
103.2
IOC,9
101*4
103.7
100.6
101.1
102.8
1966. .
104.4
104.9
103.0
105.1
1C5.5
105.6
106.0
1C6.4
106.4
106.3
106.2
106.2
104.8
105.4
106.3
106.2
105,7
81.
CONSUMER P R I C E S ©
(1957-59=100)
AVERAGE FOR P E R I O D
1945.,
1946..
1947..
62.0
63.4
74.9
61.9
63.2
74,8
61.9
63.6
76.4
62.0
64.0
76.4
62.5
64.3
76.2
63.0
65.0
76.8
63.2
68.9
77.4
63.2
70.4
78.3
62.9
71.2
8C.1
62.9
72.6
8C.1
63.2
74.3
80.6
63.4
74.9
fll.7
61.9
63.4
75.4
62.5
64.4
76.5
63.1
70.2
78.6
63,2
73.9
8C.8
62.7
68.0
77,8
1948. .
1949. .
1950..
82.6
83.7
82.0
81.9
82.8
81.8
81.7
83.0
82.1
82.8
83.2
82.2
€3.4
S3.0
£2.6
84.0
83.1
83.0
85.0
82.6
83.9
85.4
62.8
84.5
85.4
83.2
85.1
85.0
82.7
85.6
84.4
82.8
86.0
83. S
82.3
87.1
82.1
83.2
82.0
83.4
83.1
82.6
85,3
82.9
B4.5
84.4
82.6
86.2
83. B
82.9
83.8
1951. .
1952..
1953..
88,5
92.2
92.8
89.6
91.6
92.4
89.9
91.6
9,2.6
90.0
92.0
92.7
90.4
92.1
92.9
90.3
92.4
93.3
90.4
93.0
93.5
90.4
93.2
93.7
91.0
93.0
93.9
91.4
93.1
94.1
91.9
93.2
93.7
92.2
93. C
93.6
89.3
91.8
92.6
90.2
92.2
93.0
90,6
93.1
93,7
91.8
93.1
93,8
90.5
92.5
93.3
1954..
1955. .
1956..
93.9
93.2
93.4
93.7
93.2
93.4
93.6
93.2
93.5
93.4
93.1
93.6
93.7
93.1
94.1
93.8
93.2
94.7
93.9
93.5
95.4
93.7
93.3
95.2
93.5
93.6
95.4
93.3
93.6
95.9
93.4
93.7
96.0
93.2
93.5
96.2
93.7
93.2
93.4
93.6
93.1
94.1
93.7
93.5
95.3
93.3
93.6
96, C
93.6
93.4
94.7
1957..
1958..
1959..
96.3
99.7
100.9
96.7
99.8
100.8
96.9
100.5
100.8
97,2
100.7
101.0
97.5
ICO. 7
1C1.1
98.0
100.8
101.5
98.5
101.0
101.8
98.6
100.8
101.7
96.7
1QC*8
102. C
98.7
ICC.8
102.3
99.1
101. C
102.4
99.1
ICC.8
102.3
96.6
100.0
100.8
97.6
100.7
101.2
98.6
100.9
101.8
99,0
ICQ.9
102.3
97.9
100.6
101,6
1960. .
1961..
1962..
102.2
103.8
104.5
102.4
103.9
104.8
102.4
103.9
105.0
102.9
103.9
105.2
1C2.9
1C3.8
1C5.2
103.1
104.0
105.3
103.2
104.4
105.5
1C3.2
104.3
1C5.5
103.3
104.6
1C6.1
103.7
104.6
106.0
103.8
104.6
106.0
1C3.9
104.5
105.8
102.3
103.9
104.8
103. C
103.9
105.2
103.2
104.4
105.7
103.8
104.6
105.9
103.1
104.2
105.4
1963. .
1964..
1965. .
106.0
107.7
108.9
106.1
107.6
108.9
106. 2
107.7
109.0
106.2
107.8
109.3
1C6.2
1C7.8
1C9.6
106.6
108.0
110.1
107.1
108.3
110.2
107.1
108.2
110. C
10-7.1
1C7.2
108.4
106.5
1 1 C . 2 11C. 4
107.4
108.7
11C. 6
107.6
lll.C
106.1
107.7
108.9
106.3
107.9
109.7
107.1
,108.3
110.1
107.4
108.7
110.7
106.7
108.1
109.8
1966..
111.0
111.6
112.0
112.5
112.6
112.9
113.3
113.8
114.1
114.6
114.7
111.5
112.7
113.7
114.6
113.1
NOTE:
114.5
loe.a
The series on this page contain no revisions; but, where available, data not previously shown for 194-5 through 194.7 have been added.
(MAY 1968)
77
INDEX
SERIES FINDING GUIDE
(PAGE NUMBERS. See table of contents (page i) for chart, table, and appendix titles)
e
y
Series titles by economic process and other groupings
flee TOipIete titles and sources m batit eovei)
1
pjjg
•e
=•13 o
Tables
3ata
Appendixes
BtoE
§
a!
ll
3 L avoff rate iitsnufacturinp • • ......
301 Nonopn job oosninps unfilled
511,
*41,
42,
*43
45.
49
*502.
—
u
1,
L
L
L
C
C
Mart-hours in nonagri. establishments . , . . „ „ . C
.
Employees in nonagri. establishments , . . . , . ,
Total nonagricuSturat employment . . . » , . . . . .
UneniDlQViiient rate total
Avg. weekly insured unempioy. rate, State —
Uneiiinlovment rute married males
Unemplsy, rate, IS weeks and aver
Lg
c
c
c
c
c
9 6, 33
9 6, 33
9 6, 33
9 6, 33
9 6, 33
17 1, 38
17 7, 38
66-68
66-68, 73
68
68, 73
68
68, 73
68
77
75
76
75
76
76
76
10/67
4/68
9/67
4/68
9/67
2/6S
12/67
17
17
17
18
18
18
22
68
66-68, 74
68
66-68, 74
77
77
75
76
76
75
77
2/68
10/67
2/68
2/68
12/67
2/68
2/68
7,
7,
7,
1,
7,
7,
7,
38
38
38
38
38
38
41
&a
63
66-67, 69
II, PRODUCTION, INCOME, CONSUMPTION,
AND TRADE
49.
*50.
*47.
*52.
*B16
57
"!§4
GNP in current dollars
GNP In 1958 dollars
Industrial production
Personal income
t
Series titles by economic 'process and other groupings
(See complete titles a;;d saureesen back eevci}
«
•P
42
l atti
Aft nid Kp^>
Tables
B tJ r
M
.y«t-=«j o
55. Wholesale price index, industrial commodities.
§8. Wholesale price index, manufactured goods. . .
68. Labor cost per unit of gross product,
< 0
fu
l!r
c
c
c
c
c
c
c
IB
IB
IB
19
19
19
19
19
7,
7,
7,
7,
7,
7,
7,
7,
39
39
39
39
39
39
39
39
70, 74
66-67,
66-68,
66-68,
68
66-68,
70
66-68,
73
70,74 73
74
77
74
74
74
74
77
74
76
74
7/67
7/6?
12/67
7/67
7/67
4/67
7/67
5/68
c
c
so
20
V, 4C
?, 41'
t"»R
(jB
Lg 23
a, 4a
f
7't '3
V* 3
( TJ;
7/67
I,
<B
P,4
ti, 42
a, 43
VII
()6-GV , H
(/i
L
L
6,, 37
A
L
L
L
15
15
ir>
IfJ
15
16
6»
6,
6,
6.,
L
16
6, 37
ttf, V i
:V^ 5
L
C
C
C
36
,11
21
21
6,
7,
7,
7,
3V
40
40
40
(irt, > .
4/67
,1/6:5
4/M
fi/'tih
C
C
Lg
Lg
Lg
Lg
21
?1
23
23
23
23
7,
7,
8,
S,
8,
8,
40
40
42
42
43
42
ui
tU
fcH
VD
t-(j-7, , C i , V3
'»' >
U
U
U
24
24
34
25
8, 43
V;'
8, 43
8, 43
71
tVJ
35
2f)
2^
S, 43
S, 43
8^ 43
6l>
W ) , ?i
t)'3
Fed. balance, nat'l. income and prad. acct . .
Fed. receipts, nat'S. income and prod. accL3. .
Fed. expend. ,nat'l. income and prod. acct.a. . .
National defense purchases, current dollars . ,
26
2(,j
26
27
S,
S,
S,
rf,
44
44
44
44
7, )
Vi
Defense Department obligations, total
Defense Dept. obligations, procurement
New orders, defense products industries
Military contract awards in U S
27
2V
27
2V
8,
8,
8,
8,
44
44
44
44
*62. Labor cost per unit of output, manufacturing . -
8
v/ t ,v
-V^'
VI. MONEY AND CREDIT
98. Change, money supply and time deposits
—
*113. Change, consumer installment debt *.
39. Delinquency rate, installment loans,
30 days and over
,...„.. C
Manufocturinp and trade sales
Final sal os
Sales of retail stores
l'i» oriQtii
•1
V. PRICES, COSTS, AND PROFITS-Continued
1. EMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT
*1. Avg. workweek, production workers, m|g
'"30. Nonagricultural placements, all industries
2 Accession rate msnufacturinp • • • • >
n
His torica!
114. Treasury bill rate ;;i
116. Corporate bond yieldsl
117.
66.
*72.
*67.
Municipal bond yields -1
Consumer installment debt
Corcm. and indus. loans outstanding
Batik rates on short-term business loans
e; >jv
q
-V
3V
37
37
", /
•U, "3
uV-h'\ '"j
', 1
l
^/tjV
^/6V
4, (;7
in/uv
4,6V
70 '
3/t\T
V"i
Y7
Vi )
(»M
fjtf
<Tj 1
L/til?
1//6H
»2/v;
4/tv;
] /b°,
1/6:'
III. FIXED CAPITAL INVESTMENT
L
*'38. Index of net business formation
L
13. New business incorporations
*8, New orders durable goods industries ....... L
*10. Contracts and orders, plant and equipment
11. New capital appropriations, manufacturing
24 New orders mach and etiuip industries
L
L
— L
L
9, Construction contracts, comm. and industrial . .L
L
7 Private nonfann houstnp starts
96.
37.
*61.
505.
Unfilled orders, durable goods industries
Backlog of capital appropriations, mfg
Bus. expenditures, new plant and equipment < .
Mach. and equip, sales and bus, eonstr. expend.
L
C
C
n
10
10
10
10
10
6,
6,
6,
6,
6,
33
33
34
34
34
11 6f 34
11 6, 34
11
11
11
20
20
22
22
6,
6,
6,
7,
7,
7,
7,
34
34
34
40
40
41
41
66-68
68, 73
66-68
68
66-68
70
68
76
75
78
4/6B
75
76
75
5/68
8/67
12/67
68
68
66-68
68
70
66-67, 70
69
78
75
74
78
77
76
78
5/67
5/68
6/65
12/67
8/67
4/68
11/67
6/67
Chanpc5 in business inventories
Change mfg. and trade inventories
Purchased materials, higher inventories
Change, mtls. and supplies inventories
32.
25.
*71.
65.
Vendor performance, slower deliveries ,
Change in unfilled orders, durable goods;
Book value, mfg, and trade inventories « — .
Mfrs.' inventories, finished goods, book value .
L
L
L
L
L
L
L
IS
12
12
12
12
1,2
13
13
22
22
6,
6,
6,
63
6,
6,
6,
7,
7,
35
35
35
35
35
33
35
41
41
72
66-67, 71
68, 73
71
68
68
71
66-67, 69
69
72
72
77
75
76
75
76
73
72
7/67
11/66
3/68
12/67
3/68
1/68
12/67
4/67
4/67
L
*?3 Industrial materials prices
•19. Stock prices, 500 e. stocks (1941-43-10). . . . . L
19. Stock prices, SOD c. stocks ( 1957- 59^ : 100). . . .L
L
22, Ratio, profits to income originating, corporate L
L
18, Profits per dollar of sales, mfg
L
*17. Ratio, price to unit labor cost, mfg
862, Export orders nonelectric machinery
13
13
32
14
U
H
14
6,
6,
48
6,
6,
6,
6,
3G
36
36
36
36
36
66-68
66-68
68-70
66-67, 70
70
70, 73
66-68
75
76
77
72
73
71
72
3
12/67
3/68
10/67
7/67
7/67
4/67
7/67
a, 43
Vv
91.
90.
99.
92
—
u
u
u
u
u
u
u
u
V 1
4/av
vv
v.(t.
4/67
4/67
4/67
V4
Vf
VfC>^ V i
7 i
v/
(A3, 7 1
7i)
fy-<
w
V.'W
^;s
v -;ev
»2/67
ip^'fiV
3/«!
fV'6V
SERIES UNCLASSIFIED 3Y CYCLICAL TIMING
AND ECONOMIC PROCESS
Ratio,
Ratio,
Ratio,
Ratio,
outpot to capacity, manufacturing
inventories to sales, mfg. and trade • . .
unfilled orders to shipments dur. goodsprod, of bus. equip, to consumer goods .
854. Ratio, personal saving to disposable
855. Ratio, nonagri. job openings unfilled
to uneniploy8d
»
856. Ratio, avg. earnings to consumer prices
857. Vacancy rate in total rental housing
u
u
u
u
u
u
uu
2«
a, 45 •/o
2fi
23
2tl
8, 4i>
8, 45
8, 45,
29
?<,!
29
29
fl, 43
to ^ 4ii
«, 4lj
"})
"r)
L
n
u, v
by cyclic; I tiiiinp"
* Series preceded by an asterisk (1|!) are on the 1966 NBER "short list" of 25 indicators. L leading, C - rougtily coincident, Lg= lagging, U unclassified ("series unclassified
L
X
Iy 1984 issue of BCD.
A description of this sjries
A description of this series is contained in the July
"seriesundassified by cyclical timing and econdmic process" and 'international comparisons"),
is contained in the April 1968 issue of BCD.
78
b/'67
4vW
4/67
VIII. FEDERAL GOVERNMENT ACTIVITIES
850.
851.
852.
853.
V. PRICES, COSTS, AND PROFITS
u
u
u
u
86 Exports excluding military aid
861. Export orders, durable goods, except
95.
951.
952,
101.
IV. INVENTORIES AND
INVENTORY INVESTMENT
21
*31
37.
20.
VII. FOREIGN TRADE AND PAYMENTS
89, U.S. balance of payments:
a. Liquidity balance basis
VV
VV
7V
v:?
V/67
V/UV
7;;67
7/6V
VI
V/67
73
.Vt-8
7/"67
V3
3-«iM
SERIES FINDING GUIDE-Continued
(PAGE NUMBERS. See table of contents (page i) for chart, table, and appendix titles)
1
Series titles by economic process and other groupings
(See complete titles and sources on back eover)
o
»=
11 8£
Appendixes
BtoE
Tables
l-o
Historical
data
s
<D
Canada index of industrial production
United Kingdom, index of industrial production .
France index of industrial production
West Germany, index of industrial production . .
Japan index of industrial production
OECD-Europe, index of industrial production . .
Italy, index of industrial production
Canada, index of consumer prices
United Kingdom, index of consumer prices —
France, index of consumer prices
West Germany, index of consumer prices
Japan, index of consumer prices ,
Italy index of consumer prices
Canada, index of stock prices
United Kingdom, index of stock prices
France, index of stock prices
West Germany index of stock prices
Japan index of stock prices
Italy index of stock prices
i§
1— T3
=3 0>
%£
INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS
123.
122.
126.
125.
128.
121,
127.
133.
132.
136.
135.
138.
137
143.
142.
146.
145
148
147
o
S
Series titles by economic process and other groupings
£*=
(See complete titles and sources on back cover)
Tables
•2
Appendixes
BtoE
Historical
data
<u
£
QL
11
DIFFUSION INDEXES
u
u
u
u
u
u
u
u
u
u
u
u
u
u
u
u
u
u
u
30
30
30
30
30
30
30
46
46
46
46
46
46
46.
69
69
69
69
69
69
69
76
77
78
77
77
77
78
31
31
31
31
31
31
47
47
47
47
47
47
69
69
69
69
69
69
79
79
80
79
80
80
48
48
48
32', 48
32 48
32 48
69
69
69
69
69
69
81
81
82
81
82
82
32
32
32
7/67
11/67
11/67
11/67
4/68
11/67
11/67
10/67
10/67
10/67
10/67
10/67
10/67
10/67
10/67
10/67
10/67
10/67
10/67
01. Average workweek
06. New orders
Dll. Capital appropriations
....
51 54, 58
51 54, 58
51 54
83
72
77
10/67
69
72
72
10/64
4/65
8/67
034. Profits mfg
019. Stock prices
023. Industrial materials prices
51 55
51 55, 59
51 55, 60
05 Initial cl aims
D41. Employees in nonagri. establishments
51 55, 60
52 56, 61
52 56, 61
73
79
73
058. Wholesale prices mfg.
054. Retail sales
035. Net sales mfrs
52
52
53
56, 62
56, 63
57
78
73
70
11/64
036. New orders
048. Freight carloadings
061. New plant and equipment expenditures
53
53
53
57
57
57
70
68
69
11/64
11/64
11/64-
73
4/65
4/65
5/65
11/67
4/65
4/67
4/65
U - unclassified ("series unclassified by cyclical timing," "series unclassified by cyclical timing and economic process," and "international comparisons").
79
CURRENT STATISTICS
ON CONSTRUCTION
Construction accounts for about 12% of the gross national product.
Industry representatives, research specialists, market analysts, and
government officials count on the reports of the Census Bureau
for current and authoritative data on this vital segment of the
Nation's economy.
To meet this need, the Census Bureau issues a variety of monthly,
quarterly, and annual statistical reports on construction.
The current construction reports issued by the Bureau of the
Census include:
HOUSING AUTHORIZED IN INDIVIDUAL PERMIT-ISSUING
PLACES.
HOUSING STARTS.
SALES OF NEW ONE-FAMILY HOMES.
VALUE Or NEW CONSTRUCTION PUT IN PLACE.
EXPENDITURES ON RESIDENTIAL ALTERATIONS AND REPAIRS.
For a free announcement-order form, write to Publications Distribution Section, Bureau of the Census, Washington, D.C. 20233.
U.S. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE Bureau of the Census
Titles and Sources of Principal Business Cycle Series and Diffusion Indexes
The numbers assigned to the series are for identification purposes only and do not reflect series relationships or order.
"NT indicates monthly series; "Q" indicates quarterly series.
Data apply to the whole period except for series designated
by "EOT (end of the month) or "EOQ" (end of the quarter).
The Roman numeral identifies the economic process group in
which a series is classified. (See Finding Guide.) Thus,
"(M, II)" indicates a monthly series classified in group II.
The general classification follows the approach of the National
Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. The series preceded by
an asterisk {*) are included in the 1966 NBER "short list"
of 25 indicators.
36 Leading Indicators
*1. Average workweek of production workers, manufacturing
(M,l).--Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics
24. Value of manufacturers' new orders, machinery and equipment industries (M,lll).-Department of Commerce, Bureau
of the Census
25. Change in manufacturers' unfilled orders, durable goods
industries (M.IVV-Department of Commerce, Bureau of
the Census
*29. Index of new private housing units authorized by local
building permits (IKI.III).-Department of Commerce, Bureau
of the Census
53. Wage and salary income in mining, manufacturing, and
construction (Nlfl|).«Department of Commerce, Office of
Business Economics •
*30. Nonagricultural placements, all industries (M,l).-Department of Labor, Bureau of Employment Security; seasonal
adjustment by Bureau of the Census
*54. Sales of retail stores (M,ll).-Department of Commerce,
Bureau of the Census
*3l. Change in book value of manufacturing and trade inventories, total (W,IV).-Department of Commerce, Office of
Business Economics, and Bureau of the Census
3, Layoff rate, manufacturing (M,l).--Department of Labor,
Bureau of Labor Statistics
33. Net change in mortgage debt held by financial institutions
and life insurance companies (M,VI).--Institute of Life
Insurance, Federal National Mortgage Association, National
Association of Mutual Savings Banks, U.S. Savings and
Loan League, and Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census
7. New private nonfarm housing units started {M,lll).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
9. Construction contracts awarded for commercial and industrial buildings,floor space(M,111),--F.W Dodge Corporation;
seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census and National
Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
*10. Contracts and orders for plant and equipment (M,lll).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census, and F.W.
Dodge Corporation; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the
Census and National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
11. Newly approved capital appropriations, 1,090 manufacturing
corporations (Q,III).-National Industrial Conference Board;
component industries are seasonally adjusted and added
to obtain seasonally adjusted total
13. Number of new business incorporations (M, 111).-Dun and
Bradstreet, Inc.; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the
Census and National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
14. Current liabilities of business failures (M,VI).--Dun and
Bradstreet, Inc.; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the
Census and National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
16. Corporate profits after taxes (Q,V).-Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
17. Price per unit of labor cost index-ratio, wholesale prices
of manufactured goods index (unadjusted) to seasonally
adjusted index of compensation of employees (sum of wages,
salaries, and supplements to wages and salaries) per unit
of output (M,V).--Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics, Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor
Statistics; and Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve
System
18. Profits (before taxes) per dollar of sales, all manufacturing
corporations (Q,V).--Federal Trade Commission and Securities and Exchange Commission; seasonal adjustment by
Bureau of the Census
19. Index of stock prices, 500 common stocks (M,V).-Standard
and Poor's Corporation; no seasonal adjustment
20. Change in book value of manufacturers' inventories ui
materials and supplies (M,IV).-Department of Commerce,
Bureau of the Census
21. Change in business inventories, farm and nonfarm, after
valuation adjustment (GNP component) (Q,IV),-Department
of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
22. Ratio of profits (after taxes) to income originating, corporate, all industries (Q,V).-Department of Commerce, Office
of Business Economics
*23. Index of industrial materials prices (M,V).-Department of
Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics; no seasonal adjustment
*50. Gross national product in 1958 dollars (Q,ll).-Department
of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
*52. Personal income (Bl.ll).-Department of Commerce, Office
of Business Economics
32. Vendor performance, percent reporting slower deliveries
(M,IV.)..--Chicago Purchasing Agents Association; no seasonal adjustment
*6. Value of manufacturers' new orders, durable goods industries (M,1ll)."Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
49. Gross national product in current dollars (Q,11).--Department
of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
26. Buying policy-production materials, percent reporting commitments 60 days or longer (M,IV).-National Association
of Purchasing Agents; no seasonal adjustment
2. Accession rate, manufacturing (M,l).--Department of Labor,
Bureau of Labor Statistics
5. Average weekly initial claims for unemployment insurance,
State programs (M,l).--Department of Labor, Bureau of
Employment Security; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of
the Census
*47. Index of industrial production (M,ll).--Board of Governors
of the Federal Reserve System
37. Percent reporting higher inventories, purchased materials
(M,IV}.-National Association of Purchasing Agents; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census
*38. Index of net business formation (M,111).-Dun and Bradstreet,
Inc., and Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census'
seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census and National
Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
39. Percent of consumer installment loans delinquent 30 days
and over (EOM.VI).-American Bankers Association, seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census and National
Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. (Bimonthly since
December 1964)
85. Percent change in total US. money supply (demand deposits
plus currency) (M,VI).-Board of Governors of the Federal
Reserve System
94. Index of construction contracts, total value (M.lll).-F.W.
Dodge Corporation
98. Percent change in total U.S. money supply (demand deposits
plus currency) and commercial bank time deposits (M,VI),
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
110. Total funds raised by private nonfinancial borrowers in
credit markets (Q,V!).-Board of Governors of the Federal
Reserve System
55. Index of wholesale prices, industrial commodities (M,V).-Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics; no seasonal adjustment
57. Final sales (series 49 minus series 21) (Q,11).-Department
of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
58. Index of wholesale prices, manufactured goods (M,V).-Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics; no seasonal adjustment
93. Free reserves (member bank excess reserves minus borrowings) (M,VI).-Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve
System; no seasonal adjustment
96.Manufacturers' unfilled orders, durable goods industries
(EQM,III).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
97. Backlog of capital appropriations, manufacturing (EOQ,III).-National Industrial Conference Board, component industries
are seasonally adjusted and added to obtain seasonally
adjusted total
114. Discount rate on new issues of 91-day Treasury bills
(M,VI). -Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System,
no seasonal adjustment
115. Yield on long-term Treasurybonds (M.VI).- Treasury Depart'
ment, no seasonal adjustment
116. Yield on new issues of high-grade corporate bonds (W,VI). •
First National City Bank of New York and Treasury Department, no seasonal adjustment
117. Yield on municipal bonds, 20 bond average (M,VI). The
Bond Buyer no seasonal adjustment
301. Nonagricultural job openings unfilled (EOM,1). Department
of Labor. Bureau of Employment Security seasonal adjust
ment by Bureau of the Census
511. Wan-hours in nonagricultural establishments, (M,l). Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics
*816. Manufacturing and trade sales (M,ll).--Departiiitmt of Commerce, Office of Business Economics and Bureau of the
Census
112. Net change in bank loans to businesses (M,VI).-Board of
Governors of the Federal Reserve System; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census
*113. Net change in consumer installment debt (M,VI). -board of
Governors of the Federal Reserve System
25 Roughly Coincident Indicators
40. Unemployment rate, married males, spouse present (M,l)
Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, and Depart
ment of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
*41. Number of employees in nonagricultural establishments
(M,l).-Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics
42. Total nonagricultural employment, labor force survey (M.l).
Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, and
Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
*43. Unemployment rate, total (IKI.I). Department of Labor
Bureau of Labor Statistics, and Department of Commerce
Bureau of the, Census
11 Lagging Indicators
*61. Business expenditures on new plant and equipment, total
(Q,lll) Department of Commerce. Office of Business
Economics, and the Securities and Exchange Commission
*62. Index of labor cost per unit of output, total manufacturing-ratio, index of compensation of employees in manufacturing
(the sum of wages and salaries and supplements to wages
and salaries) to index of industrial production, manufacturing (M,V). Department of Commerce, Office of Business
Economics, and the Board of Governors of the Federal
Reserve System
65. Book value of manufacturers' inventories of finished goods,
all manufacturing industries (EQM.IV) Department of
Commerce Bureau of the Census
86. Consumer installment debt (EOM,Vl).--Board of Governors
of the Federal Reserve System FRS seasonally adjusted
net change added to seasonally adjusted figure for previous
month to obtain current figure
45. Average weekly insured unemployment rate, State programs
(Nl,l).-Department of Labor, Bureau of Employment Security
46. Index of help-wanted advertising in newspapers (M,l).
National Industrial Conference Board
Continued on reverse
UNITED STATES
GOVERNMENT PRINTING OJFFICE
POSTAGE AND FEES PAID
DIVISION OF PUBLIC DOCUMENTS
U.S. GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE
WASHINGTON, o,c. 20402
OFFICIAL BUSINESS
FIRST CLASS MAIL
Titles and Sources of Principal Business Cycle Series and Diffusion Indexes-Continued
*67. Bank rates on short-term business loans, 35 cities (QtVI).Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System; no
seasonal adjustment
862. Index of export orders for nonelectrical machinery (M.VIIjVMcGraw-Hill, Department of Economics; seasonal adju$tment by Bureau of the Census
58, Labor cost (current dollars) per unit of gross product (1958
dollars), nonfinancial corporations (ratio of current-dollar
compensation of employees to gross corporate product in
1958 dollars) (Q,V).-Department of Commerce, Office of
Business Economics, National Income Division
951. Federal Government receipts, national income and product
account (Q).-Department of Commerce, Off ice of Busines$
Economics
*71. Book value, manufacturing and trade in von lories, total
(EOM,IV).-Department of Commerce, Office of Business
Economics ana Bureau of the Census
*72. Commercial and industrial loans outstanding, weekly reporting large commercial banks (EOM,VI).-Board of Governors
of the Federal Reserve System; seasonal adjustment by
Bureau of the Census
118, Secondary market yields on FHA mortgages(M,VI).--Federal
Housing Administration; no seasonal adjustment
*502. Unemployment rate, 15 weeks and over (M,I).-Department
of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics
505. Manufacturers' machinery and equipment sales and business
construction expenditures (industrial and commercial construction put in place) (M,lll).»Department of Commerce,
Bureau of the Census
15 Series Unclassified by
Cyclical Timing
952. Federal expenditures, national income and product account
(Q).-Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
8 Series Unclassified by
Cyclical Timing
and Economic Process
850. Ratio, output to capacity, mfg. (Q),--Board of Governors Of
the Federal Reserve System, Department of Commerce, and
McGraw-Hill Economics Department
851. Ratio, inventories (BCD series 71) to sales (BCD series
816), manufacturing and trade total (M).~ Department of
Commerce, Office of Business Economics
852. Ratio, unfilled orders (BCD series 96) to shipments, manufacturers' durable goods (IKI).- Department of Commerce,
Bureau of the Census
81. Index of consumer prices (M t V).--Department of Labor,
Bureau of Labor Statistics; no seasonal adjustment
86. Exports, excluding military aid shipments, total (M,VII).Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
854. Ratio, personal saving to disposable personal income {Q).Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
87. General imports, total (M.VII).-Department of Commerce,
Bureau of the Census
855. Ratio, nonagricultural job openings unfilled (BCD series
301) to number of persons unemployed (M).--Department of
Labor, Bureau of Employment Security and Bureau of Labor;
Statistics; and Department of Commerce, Bureau of the
Census
89. Excess of receipts or payments in U.S. balance of payments
(Q,VII).-Department of Commerce, Office of Business
Economics
90. Defense Department obligations incurred, procurement
(M,VIII).~Department of Defense, Fiscal Analysis Divi
sion; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census
856. Ratio, average hourly earnings of production workers in
manufacturing to consumer prices (BCD series 81) (M),-*
Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics; seasonal
adjustment by Bureau of the Census
99. New orders, defense products industries (M ( VIII).--Departmerit of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
101. Federal purchases of goods and services, national defense
(Q,VIII).-Department of Commerce, Office of Business
Economics
861, Manufacturers' new orders for export, durable goods except
motor vehicles and parts (M,VII).--Departmen! of Commerce,
Bureau of the Census; no seasonal adjustment
133. Canada, index of ciwisumer prices (M).-Dominion Bureau of
Statistics (Ottawa); no seasonal adjustment
136. France, index of consumer prices (M).-lnstitut National de
la Statistique et des Etudes Economiques (Paris); no
seasonal adjustment
137. Italy, index of consume' prices,(IKI).-Istituto Centrale di
Statistica (Rome); rto seasonal adjustment
138. Japan, index of consumer prices (M).-Office of the Prime
Minister (Tokyo); no seasonal adjustment
. . . United State:;, incex of consumer
Series 81
prices (M,V).- See
142. United Kingdom,, index of stock prices (M).~The Financial
Times (London); no seasonal adjustment
143. Canada, index of stock prices (M).--Dominion Bureau of
Statistics (Ottawa); no seasonal adjustment
145. West Germany, index oil stock prices (M|.-Stati$tisches
Bundesamt (Wiesbaden); no seasonal adjustment
146. France, index of stock prices (M),--Ins; to tut National de la
Statistique et des Etudes Economiques (Paris); no seasonal
adjustment
147. Italy, index of stock priceis (M).-lslituto Centrale di Statistica (Rome); no seasonal adjustment
148. Japan, index of stock prices (Nrj.-Tokyo Stock Exchanf
(Tokyo); no seasonal adjustment
... United States, index of stock prices, 500 common stoc
(M,V).-See series 19
Diffusion Indexes
19 International Comparisons
95. Federal Government surplus or deficit, national income
and product account (Q,VIII).-Departnient of Commerce,
Office of Business Economics
132. United Kingdom, index of consumer prices (M).-Ministry of
Labour (London); no seasonal adjustment
857. Vacancy rate in rental housing-unoccupied rental housing
units as a percent of total rental housing (Q).-- Department
of Commerce, Bureau of the Census.
91. Defense Department obligations incurred, total (M.VIII).Department of Defense, Fiscal Analysis Division, seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census
92. Military prime contract awards to U.S. business firms and
institutions (M,VIII).-Department of Defense, Directorate
for Statistical Services; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of
the Census
... United State;;, index of industrial production (M,ll).~See
series 47
135. West Germany, indox of consumer prices (M).-Stati$tisches
Bundesamt (Wiesbaden); no seasonal adjustment
853. Ratio, production of business equipment to production of
consumer goods (index: 1957-59 = 100) (M).-Board of
Governors of the Federal Reserve System. (Based upon
components of the Federal Reserve index of industrial
production.)
8B. Merchandise trade balance (series 86 minus series 87)
(M.VII).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
128. Japan, index of industrial production (M).-Ministry of International Trade and Industry (Tokyo)
121. Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development,
European Countries, index of industrial production (M).-Organtzation for Economic Cooperation and Development
l Paris)
122. United Kingdom, index of industrial production (M).--Central
Statistical Office (London)
The "0" preceding a number indicates a diffusion index
Diffusion indexes and corresponding business cycle series
bear the same number and are obtained from the same sources
See sources above for Cl, D!i, D6, Oil, 019, 023, D41, D47,
D54, D58, and 061 Sources for other diffusion indexes are
as follows:
D34, Profits, manufacturing, FNCB (Q),-First National City
Bank of New York; no seasonal adjustment of series components
Diffusion indexes are seasonally adjusted by
Bureau of the Census and National Bureau of Economic
Research, Inc.
123. Canada, index of industrial production (M).-Dominion Bureau
of Statistics (Ottawa)
125. West Germany, index of industrial production (M).-Statistisches Bundesamt (Wiesbaden); seasonally adjusted by
OECD
035. Net sales, total manufactures (Q).-Dun and Bradstreet,
Inc.; no seasonal adjustment
126. France, index of industrial production (M).»lnstitut National
de la Statistique et des Etudes Economiques (Paris)
036. New orders, durable manufactures (Q).-Oun and Bradstreet,
Inc.; no seasonal adjustment
127. Italy, index of industrial production (M).--lstituto Centrale
di Statistical Rome)
D48. Freight carloadings (Q).-Association of American Railroads; no seasonal adjustment
For Index-Series Finding Guide, see last pages of issue.
@FedFRASER