Full text of Business Conditions Digest : November 1967
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bed
BUSINESS CYCLE
DEVELOPMENTS
November 1967
DATA THROUGH OCTOBER
DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE
BUREAU OF THE CENSUS
This report was prepared in the Economic
Research and Analysis Division under the
direction of Julius Shiskin, Chief. Technical
staff and their responsibilities for the publication are—
Feliks Tamm—Technical supervision and
review,
Barry A, Beckman—Specifications for
computer processing,
Gerald F, Donahoe—New projects,
Morton Somer—Selection of seasonal
adjustment methods,
Betty F. Tunstall—Collection and compilation of basic data.
Editorial supervision is provided by Gerald me
Censky of the Administrative and Publications
Services Division, Stuart I. Freeman is responsible for publication design.
The cooperation of various government and
private agencies which provide data is gratefully acknowledged. The agencies furnishing
data are indicated in the list of series and
sources on the back cover of this report
U.S. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE
Alexander B. Trowbridge, Secretary
William H. Shaw, Asst. Secy., Economic Affairs
BUREAU OF THE CENSUS
A. Ross Eckler, Director
Robert F. Drury, Deputy Director
Morris H. Hansen, Asst. Director for Research and Development
JULIUS SHISKIN, Chief Economic Statistician
Subscription price is $7 a year ($1.75 additional for foreign mailing). Single issues are
60 cents.
Airmail delivery is available at an additional
charge. For information about domestic or
foreign airmail delivery, write to the Superintendent of Documents (address below),
enclosing a copy of your address label. Make
checks payable to the Superintendent of
Documents. Send to U.S. Government Printing
Office, Washington, D,C. 20402, or to any U.S.
Department of Commerce Field Office.
ABOUT THE COVER—Series in this publication
are grouped according to their usual timing
and shown against the background of contractions and expansions in general business
activity. The center panel illustrates this
concept. The vertical bar represents a contraction; the top curve, the Leading Series which
usually fall before a contraction has begun and
rise before it has ended; the middle curve, the
Coincident Series which usually fall with the
contraction period; the bottom curve, the
Lagging Series which fall after a contraction
has begun and rise after it ends. Series are also
classified by economic process within each
timing group. Processes are indicated in the
squares bordering the panel.
bed
BUSINESS CYCLE
DEVELOPMENTS
November 1S67
PREFACE This report brings together many of the available economic
indicators in convenient form for analysis and interpretation. The presentation
and classification of series follow the business indicators approach. The list
of indicators and their classification into "leading," "roughly coincident/'
and "lagging" groups are those designated by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), a private, nonprofit research organization which
has been preparing lists of business cycle indicators for more than 40 years.
The business cycle turning dates are also those designated by NBER. In
addition, all series within each timing group are classified under eight
economic processes (e.g., employment and unemployment; production, income, consumption, and trade; fixed capital investment; etc.). Some special
series included in the list (such as labor costs in manufacturing and the total
of machinery and equipment sales and business construction) have been
constructed by the NBER for purposes of business cycle analysis.
The utilization of the National Bureau list of indicators and their
cyclical turning dates is not to be taken as implying acceptance or endorsement by the Bureau of the Census or any other government agency of any
approach to business cycle analysis, nor of the special series compiled
by the National Bureau to facilitate cyclical studies. This report is intended
only to supplement other Department of Commerce reports that provide
information so arranged as to facilitate the analysis of current business
conditions.
The unique features of BCD are the arrangement of data according
to their usual timing relations during the course of the business cycle, the
cross-classification by timing and economic process, and the inclusion of
special analytical measures and historical cyclical comparisons that help in
evaluating the current state of the business cycle. In addition, the movements of the series are shown against the background of the expansions and
contractions of the general business cycle so that "leads" and "lags" can be
readily detected and unusual cyclical developments spotted.
About 115 principal series and over 300 components are used in preparing BCD. (This figure includes 19 foreign series in addition to 96 U.S.
series.) Almost all of the basic data have been published by the source agency.
A complete list of series titles and the sources of data is shown on the back
cover of this report.
November 1967
DATA THROUGH OCTOBER
DEVELOPMENTS
CONTENTS
Cross-Classification of Business Indicators by Economic Process and Cyclical
Timing .
Background Materials
New Features and Changes for This Issue
3 Census Projects on Economic Fluctuations
iii
iv
v
vi
Descriptions and Procedures
Introduction
Timing Classification
Economic Process Classification
"Short List" of Indicators
Method of Presentation
Concepts and Procedures
References
x.
How to Read Charts 1 and 2
1
1
2
2
2
2
2
4
Section One—Basic Data
Table
Chart
Chart
Table
Table
1. Changes Over 4 Latest Months
1A. Business Cycle Series From 1948 to Present
IB. Series for International Comparisons From 1948 to Present . . . .
2A. Latest Data for Business Cycle Series
2B. Latest Data for International Comparisons
6
9
30
33
46
Section Two—Analytical Measures
Chart 2. Diffusion Indexes From 1948 to Present
Table 3. Latest Data for Diffusion Indexes
Table 4. Selected Diffusion Indexes and Components
51
54
58
For Index—Series Finding Guide, see last pages of issue.
CONTENTS
Continued
Appendixes
Appendix A. Business Cycle Expansions and Contractions in the United
States: 1854 to 1961
.
.
65
Appendix B. Specific Trough and Peak Dates for Selected Business
Indicators
„
.
66
Appendix C. Average Changes and Related Measures for Business Cycle
Series
.
___. 68
Appendix D. Current Adjustment Factors for Business Cycle Series
73
Appendix E. Percent Change for Selected Series Over Contraction and
Expansion Periods of Business Cycles: 1920 to 1961 _ „ _ 74
Appendix F. Historical Data for Selected Series
„_ 75
Index
Series Finding Guide
~__
79
Cross-Classification of Business Indicators by
Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
(Minor economic processes and the number of series in each process are shown for each classification. See the index and back cover for series titles)
Cyclical
Timing
LEADING INDICATORS
(36 series)
ROUGHLY COINCIDENT
INDICATORS
LAGGING INDICATORS
(11 series)
(25 series)
EMPLOYMENT AND
UNEMPLOYMENT
(14 series)
Marginal employment
adjustments
(5 series)
(16 series)
Long-duration unemployment
(1 series)
Comprehensive production
(3 series)
Comprehensive income
(2 series)
Comprehensive consumption
and trade (3 series)
PRODUCTION,
INCOME,
CONSUMPTION,
AND TRADE
(8 series)
(14 series)
Formation of business
enterprises
(2 series)
New investment commitments
(8 series)
INVENTORIES AND
INVENTORY
INVESTMENT
Inventory investment
and purchasing
(7 series)
FIXED CAPITAL
INVESTMENT
Job vacancies
(2 series)
Comprehensive employment
(3 series)
Comprehensive unemployment
(3 series)
OTHER
SELECTED U.S. SERIES
Backlog of investment
commitments
(2 series)
Investment expenditures
(2 series)
Inventories
(2 series)
(9 series)
PRICES, COSTS,
AND PROFITS
(11 series)
MONEY AND CREDIT
(17 series)
Sensitive commodity prices
(1 series)
Stock prices
(1 series)
Profits and profit margins
(4 series)
Comprehensive wholesale prices
(2 series)
Unit labor costs
(2 series)
Flows of money and credit
(6 series)
Credit difficulties
(2 series)
Bank reserves
(1 series)
Money market interest
rates
(4 series)
Outstanding debt
(2 series)
Interest rates on
business loans and mortgages
(2 series)
Comprehensive retail
prices (1 series)
FOREIGN TRADE
AND PAYMENTS
(6 series)
Foreign trade and
payments
(6 series)
FEDERAL
GOVERNMENT
ACTIVITIES
(9 series)
Federal Government
activities
(9 series)
iii
BACKGROUND MATERIALS
A revised list of indicators was introduced in the April
issue of BUSINESS CYCLE DEVELOPMENTS. Research work for the revised list was carried out by the
National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. (NBER),
a private, nonprofit research organization which has
been preparing lists of economic indicators and research
reports in the field of business cycle analysis for more
than 40 years. This revised list was published by the
National Bureau in March 1967, and is the result of
a periodic review made by that agency of its previous
list of indicators of aggregate economic activity. This
is the third revision of the list originally published by
the National Bureau in 1938.
The method of preparing the new list, the reasons for
adding certain series and dropping others, and an
explanation of the classification system used are described in a new report, INDICATORS OF BUSINESS
EXPANSIONS AND CONTRACTIONS, published by
the National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc., 261
Madison Avenue, New York, N.Y., 10016. Other reports on the historical studies and methods of making
current interpretations of the indicators are listed in
this book.
The revised list includes some new series, discontinues some of those on the previous list, and has
assigned timing classifications to some series previously
unclassified by timing. The chief features of the new list
follow;
1. The major principle of classification is a fourfold grouping by cyclical timing: Leading, roughly,
coincident, and lagging indicators, and other selected
series. The first three categories tak£ into account
timing at both peaks and troughs; the; fourth group
includes economic activities that have an important
role in jlbusiness cycles but have displayed a less
regular relation to them. The new list of indicators
includes 36 leading series, 25 roughly coincident
series, 11 lagging series, and 16 series unclassified
by timing—88 series in all; 69 are monthly and
19 are quarterly. This list includes 13 series not on
the previous NBER list and omits 5 series. In addition, 14 series previously unclassified by timing are
assigned a timing classification.
2. The type of economic process represented by
the series is used as a secondary principle of classification, with emphasis on 'the processes that are
important for business cycle analysis. The 88 U.S.
series are classified into eight major groups: (I)
Employment and Unemployment, 14 series; (II)
Production, Income, Consumption, and Trade, 8
series; (III) Fixed Capital Investment, 14 series;
(IV) Inventories and Inventory Investment, 9 series;
(V) Prices, Costs, and Profits, 11 series; (VI) Money
and Credit, 17 series; (VII) Foreign Trade and
Payments, 6 series; and (VIII) Federal Government
Activities, 9 series. Each of these major categories
is subdivided into economic processes that exhibit
rather distinct differences in cyclical timing. For
example, under Fixed Capital Investment, new investment commitments are distinguished from investment expenditures.
3. A short Ust of 25 indicators, drawn from the
full list, is identified throughout BCD. This more
selective list includes 12 leading, 7 roughly coincident,
and 6 lagging series; 21 are monthly and 4 are
quarterly. The short list involves little of the duplica-
tion in economic coverage that is provided, for
various reasons, in the full list. The series on the
short list are identified by asterisks.
4. Two other groups of series are shown in BCD
in addition to the 88 NBER indicators. They are
"U.S. Series Under Consideration" (eight series not
yet classified by cyclical timing and economic process
but under consideration for the list of indicators)
and "International Comparisons" (19^ series showing
industrial production, consumer prices, and stock
prices for several countries which have important
trade relations with the United States).
Changes in the 1966 list of indicators are as follows
(series identification number and title):
13 series new to the 1966 Ust:
33. Net change in mortgage debt held by financial institutions and life insurance companies
39. Delinquency rate, 30 days and over, total
installment loans
58. Index of wholesale prices, manufactured goods
*71. Manufacturing and trade inventories, book
value
*72. Commercial and industrial loans outstanding,
weekly reporting large commercial banks
101, National defense purchases
301, Nonagricultural job openings unfilled
*502. Unemployment rate, persons unemployed 15
weeks and over
505. Machinery and equipment sales and business
construction expenditures
511. Man-hours in non agricultural establishments
*816. Manufacturing and trade sales
861. Manufacturers' new orders for export, durable
goods except motor vehicle and parts
862. Index of export orders, nonelectrical machinery
5 series on the previous list but omitted from the
1966 list:
4. Number of persons on temporary layoff, all
industries
15. Number of business failures with liabilities of
$100,000 and over
*51. Bank debits, all standard metropolitan statistical areas except New York
*64. Manufacturers' inventories, book value
111. Corporate gross savings
10 series specially constructed for business cycle
studies at the suggestion of the NBER:
*10. Contracts and orders for plant and equipment
*17. Ratio, price to unit labor cost, manufacturing
22. Ratio of profits to income originating, corporate, all industries
33. Net change in mortgage debt held by financial
institutions and life insurance companies
*38. Index of net business formation
53. Wages and salaries in mining, manufacturing,
and construction
*62. Index of labor cost per unit of output, manufacturing
68. Index of labor cost per dollar of real corporate
GNP
505. Machinery and equipment sales and business
construction expenditures
511. Man-hours in non agricultural establishments
*Denotes series included on "short list."
IV
D A limited number of changes are made from time to time to reflect new
findings of business cycle research and newly available economic series and
to report recent changes made by producing agencies in concept, composition,
comparability, coverage, seasonal adjustment methods, benchmark data, etc.
Such changes may involve additions or deletions of series used, changes in
placement of series in relation to other series, changes in components of
indexes, etc.
Changes in this issue are as follows:
1.—The Federal Reserve index of industrial production has been revised from January 1966 to date to reflect the source agency's annual updating of seasonal
adjustment factors and basic figures for certain series,
These revisions affect series 47, 853, D^7, and other
series which utilize these Federal Reserve data—series
17 and 62. Further information concerning this index
may be obtained- from the Board of Governors of the
Federal Reserve System, Business Conditions Section.
2.—The series on machinery and equipment sales and
business construction expenditures (series 505) has
been revised for the period January 1953 through December 1966. This revision reflects the incorporation of
recently revised data on value in place for private
nonresidential buildings for July 1962 through 1966.
In addition, data on value in place for public utilities are now excluded for the entire period covered by
the series. Further information concerning the revised
value-in-place data may be obtained from the Bureau of
the Census, Construction Statistics Division.
3.—Industrial production indexes for OECD—Europe,
United Kingdom, West Germany, France, and Italy have
been revised to reflect minor changes which have been
made by the source agency.
4.—Appendix F includes historical data for series
121, 122, 125, 126, 127, 505, and D£L.
The December issue of BUSINESS CYCLE DEVELOPMENTS is
scheduled for release on December 28.
CENSUS METHOD II ADJUSTMENT PROGRAM. A time series computer
program for measuring and analyzing seasonal, trading-day, cyclical, and
irregular fluctuations and the relations among them. This program is
particularly useful in analyzing economic fluctuations which take place
within q year.
The latest variant, X - l l , has greater generality and scope than any of the
earlier programs. It can adjust quarterly as well as monthly series and series
with negative and positive numbers as well as those with positive numbers
alone. The X-ll version measures and adjusts not only for seasonal variations, but also for trading-day variations. Further, it computes many summary
and analytical measures of the behavior of each series. The program includes
various techniques, such as F tests and variance analysis, for use in extending
the scope of time series studies and is written in a simplified computer language—Fortran IV. The program deck can be purchased from the Census
Bureau at cost.
BUSINESS CYCLE DEVELOPMENTS. A monthly report for analyzing economic
fluctuations over a short span of years.
This report brings together several hundred monthly and quarterly "economic Indicator" series for the analysis of short-term economic trends and
prospects. These series have been selected, tested, and evaluated, after half
a century of continuing research, as the most useful and reliable for this
purpose. The publication provides not only the basic data, but also various
charts and analytical tables to facilitate such studies. In addition, a time
series punch-card file, a diffusion index program, and a separate summarymeasures computer program are available for those who wish to carry on
further research in business cycle analysis.
LONG TERM ECONOMIC GROWTH An annual report for the study of
economic fluctuations over a long span of years.
This report has been developed from available statistics to provide a comprehensive, long-range view of the U.S. economy. It has been planned,
prepared, and published as a basic research document for economists, historians, investors, teachers, and students. It brings together for the first time
under one cover, in meaningful and convenient form, the complete statistical
basis for a study of long-term economic trends. It is a unique presentation
of the full range of factors required for an understanding of our country's
economic development. Some of the statistical series go back to 1860. A
punchcard file of the time series included in the report is available for
purchase.
VI
DESCRIPTIONS
AND
INTRODUCTION
The business cycle is generally described as consisting
of alternating periods of expansion and contraction in
aggregate economic activity—that is, the complex of
activities represented by such concepts as total production, employment, income, consumption, trade, and the
flow of funds. Although a recurrent pattern has been
characteristic of American economic history, many
economists do-not consider it inevitable.
The causal relations among various economic processes are primarily responsible for the cumulative
nature of cyclical forces and explain why expansions
have eventually turned into recessions and recessions
into expansions. Cyclical fluctuations in production
and employment are preceded by fluctuations in
measures which relate to future rather than current
production—measures such as new orders for durable
goods, formation of new business enterprises, and accessions to payrolls. They are followed by fluctuations
in various economic costs, such as labor costs, interest
rates, fulfillment of long-term commitments, and holdings of inventories and debts.
TIMING CLASSIFICATION
On the basis of many years of research, the National
Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) has compiled a
list of indicators of aggregate economic activity and has
classified these indicators according to whether they
usually lead, roughly coincide with, or lag behind the
cyclical movements in aggregate activity. The 1966 list,
as issued by the NBER, is the basis for the presentation of U.S. series in BUSINESS CYCLE DEVELOPMENTS. Prior to April 1967, their 1960 list was
used. The series have been grouped and classified by
the NBER as "leading," "roughly coincident," or "lag-
ging" indicators. These indicators are described as
follows:
Leading Indicators.—Series that usually reach peaks
or troughs before those in aggregate economic activity
as measured by the roughly coincident series (see
below). One group of these series pertains to orders
and contracts, another to inventory investment, and
so on.
Roughly Coincident Indicators.—Series that are direct measures of aggregate economic activity or move
roughly together with it; for example, nonagricultural
employment, industrial production, and retail sales.
Lagging Indicators.—Series, such as new plant and
equipment expenditures and manufacturers' inventories, that usually reach turning points after they are
reached in aggregate economic activity.
Also included in BCD are (a) "Other Selected U.S.
Series," economic activities which are important in
analyzing business cycles but have a less consistent
relation to them; (b) "U.S. Series Under Consideration," indicators that measure important economic relationships but have not been classified by economic
process and timing and, therefore, not yet incorporated
into the list of 88 indicators; and (c) indexes of industrial production, consumer prices, and stock prices for
several countries which have important trade relations
with the United States.
The business cycle turning dates used in this report
are those designated by the NBER. They mark the
approximate dates when aggregate economic activity
reached its cyclical high (peak) or low (trough) levels.
As a matter of general practice, a business cycle turning date will not be designated until at least 6 months
after it has occurred. (See appendix A for peak and
trough dates.)
ECONOMIC PROCESS CLASSIFICATION
A secondary principle of classification, economic
process, supplements the timing classification. All series
are cross-classified according to these two principles.
The major economic process categories are employment and unemployment; production, income, consumption, and trade; fixed capital investment; inventories' and inventory investment; prices, costs, and
profits; money and credit; foreign trade and payments;
and Federal Government activity.
"SHORT LIST" OF INDICATORS
A short, substantially unduplicated list of principal indicators provides a convenient way of summarizing
the current situation and outlook. The NBER has
identified, for this purpose, a short list of 25. This list
includes 12 leading, 7 roughly coincident, and 6 lagging
indicators; 21 are monthly and 4 are quarterly. These
series are identified throughout BCD.
METHOD OF PRESENTATION
This report consists of two major sections as follows:
Basic Data (chart 1, tables 1 and 2).—Data for all
series are shown for the current and prior periods
in both graphic and tabular form. Thus, a broad view
of past and current business cycle fluctuations is
provided.
Analytical Measures (chart 2, tables 3 and 4).—
Measures are presented which help to determine the
magnitude and scope of, current changes in different
processes, industries, and areas, and aid in evaluating
the prospects of a turning point in the business cycle.
A list of titles and sources for all series is shown on
the back cover of this report. The series numbers are
for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order.
CONCEPTS AND PROCEDURES
Several other concepts and procedures used in this
report are summarized below:
Adjustments for average seasonal fluctuations are
often necessary to bring out the underlying cyclical
trends of a series. In most cases, the seasonally adjusted data used for a series are the official figures
released by the source agency. In addition, for the
special purposes of business cycle studies, a number of
series that are not ordinarily published in seasonally
adjusted form are shown on a seasonally adjusted basis
in this report. The seasonal adjustment process usually
accounts for variations due to holidays; however, there
are some cases in which a separate holiday adjustment
is needed for holidays with variable dates.
Months for cyclical dominance (MCD) is an estimate of the appropriate span over which to observe the
cyclical movements in a monthly series, MCD moving
averages are shown in chart 1 for series with an MCD
of "5" or more; however, to provide an indication of
the variation about these moving averages, monthly
data are also plotted.
Diffusion indexes are simple summary measures
which express what percentage of the components of an
aggregate series has risen over given time spans. Their
turning points tend to lead those of the aggregate.
Series numbers preceded by "D" designate diffusion
indexes. Many of the component series used to make
up the diffusion indexes are shown in table 4.
During the current expansion, high values for the
indicators are identified in table 2, These values are
not necessarily cyclical peak values, but are simply the
highest values reached to date.
Certain appendix materials are presented regularly
in this report. These materials include historical data,
adjustment factors, peak and trough dates, and other
information helpful in interpreting trends in the indicators.
REFERENCES
Fuller explanations of the use of indicators of aggregate
economic activity in analyzing current business conditions and prospects may be found in the following
references:
(1) Alexander, Sidney S. "Rate of Change Approaches to Forecasting—Diffusion Indexes and
First Differences," The Economic Journal,
June 1958, pp. 288-301.
(2) Broida, Arthur L. "Diffusion Indexes," American Statistician vol. IX, No. 2 (June 1955),
pp. 7-16.
(3) Burns, Arthur F. and Mitchell, Wesley C.
Measuring Business Cycles. New York: National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.,
1946.
(4) Daly, D. J. and White, D. A. "Economic Indicators in the 1960's," Proceedings of the Business and Economics Statistics Section, American
Statistical Association, August 1966, pt. V, pp.
64-75.
(5) Gordon, R. A. "Alternative Approaches to
Forecasting: The Recent Work of the National
Bureau," The Review of Economics and Statistics vol. XLIV, No. 3 (August 1962), pp. 284291.
(6) Lempert, Leonard H. "Leading Indicators,"
How Business Economists Forecast (William F.
Butler and Robert A. Kavesh, Ed.) pt. I, ch. 2,
pp. 31-47. Englewood Cliffs, N.J.: PrenticeHall, 1966.
(7) Moore, Geoffrey H,, Editor, Business Cycle
Indicators. New York: National Bureau of
Economic Research, Inc., 1961.
(8) Moore, Geoffrey H. and Shiskin, Julius. Indicators of Business Expansions and Contractions,
Occasional Paper 103. New York: National
Bureau 6f Economic Research, Inc., 1967.
(9) Morris, Frank E. "The Predictive Value of the
National Bureau's Leading Indicators,"Business
Cycle Indicators vol. I, ch. 4, pp. 110-119. New
York: National Bureau of Economic Research,
Inc., 1961.
(10) Okun, Arthur M. "On the Appraisal of Cyclical
Turning Point Predictors," Journal of Business,
April 1960, pp. 101-120.
(11) Shiskin, Julius. Business Cycle Indicators: The
Known and the Unknown. Paper presented at
the 34th session of the International Statistical
Institute, Ottawa, Canada, August 24, 1963.
Washington: Bureau of the Census, 1963.
(12) Shiskin, Julius. Signals of Recession and Recovery, Occasional Paper 77. New York:
National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.,
1961.
HOW TO READ CHARTS 1 AND 2
Peak (P) of cycle indicates end of
expansion and beginning of Recession (shaded areas) as designated
by NBER,
Trough (T) of cycle indicates end
recession and beginning of Exp.
sion as designated by NBER.
CHART 1 - Series
Arabic number indicates lat<
month for which data are plotfo
("3" = March)
Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series
relationships or order, Series are
arranged in charts and tables according to their classification by
timing and economic process.
R o m a n number indicates lat<
quarter for which data are plotti
("11" — second quarter)
Solid line indicates monthly data.
(Data may be actual monthly figures
or MCD moving averages.*)
Dotted line indicates
data.
B r o k e n line i n d i c a t e s a c t u a l
monthly data for series where an
MCD moving average* is plotted.
Parallel lines indicate a break in
continuity (data not available,
changes in series definitions,
extreme values, etc.).
40
Solid line with plotting points indicates quarterly data.
Solid line indicates monthly data
over 6- or 9-month spans.
Broken line indicates monthly data
over 1-month spans.
Solid line with plotting points indicates quarterly data over various
spans.
* Many of the more irregular series are
shown in terms of their MCD moving
averages as well as their actual monthly
data. In such cases, the 4-, 5-, or 6-term
moving averages are plotted IVz, 2, or
2Vz months, respectively, behind the
actual data. See appendix C for a description of MCD moving averages.
anticipat
Various scales are used to hij
light the patterns of the individi
' series. "Scale A" is an arithme
scale, "scale L-l" is a logarithn
scale with 1 cycle in a given d
tance, "scale L-2" is a logarithm
scale with 2 cycles in that distant
etc. The scales should be carefu
noted because they show wheth
or not the plotted lines for vario
series are directly comparable.
CHART 2 - Diffusion Indexes
Scale shows percent of componen
rising.
Arabic number indicates late
month for which data are used
computing the indexes. ("2" =
February)
Roman number indicates late
quarter for which data are used
computing the indexes. f"IV"
fourth quarter)
Broken line with plotting points i
dicates quarterly data over varioi
intervals. This line is also used
indicate anticipated quarterly dat
HOW TO LOCATE A SERIES
To locate a series in BCD, consult the Index—Series Finding Guide in the back of the book where series are arranged into eight groups
by economic process and cross referenced by timing classification in the first column. The back cover, which lists series titles (followed
by a Roman numeral denoting economic process group) and sources in numerical order within each timing group, may also be helpful to
some readers.
Section ONE
DATA
charts and tables
LEADING INDICATORS
Employment and unemployment
Fixed capital investment
Inventories and inventory investment
Prices, costs, and profits
Money and credit
ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
Employment and unemployment
Productionf income, consumption, and trade
fixed capital investment
Prices, costs, and profits
Money and credit
LAGGING INDICATORS
Employment and unemployment
Fixed capital investment
Inventories and inventory investment
Prices, costs, and profits
Money and credit
OTHER U.S. SERIES
Prices, costs, and profits
Foreign trade and payments
Federal Government activities
Also U>5. SERIES UNDER CONSIDERATION (unclassified series) and INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS
(indexes of industrial production, consumer prices, and stock prices for selected foreign countries)
Table 1
BASIC DATA
NOVEMBER 1967
bed
CHANGES OVER 4 LATEST MONTHS
Average percent change 2
Basic data1
Series
(See complete titles and sources on
back cover)
Unit of
measure
July
1967
Aug. '
1967
Oct. '66 Oct. '66 1953 to
to date to date
1965
(without
(without
(with
5
sign)s 6
sign)*
sign)
Oct.
1967
Sept.
1967
3
Current percent change3
July
to
Aug.
1967
Aug.
to
Sept
1967
Sept.
to
Oct.
1967
LEADING INDICATORS
1. EMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT
Marginal Employment Adjustments:
Hours
*1. Avg, workweek, prod, workers, mfg
40.7
40.4
*30. Nonagri. placements, all industries
Thousands
484
487
Per 100 employ. .
2. Accession rate, manufacturing
4.2
4.3
5. Avg. weekly initial claims, State
3
211
unemployment insurance (inverted ) . Thousands
265
rl.l
1.6
3. Layoff rate, manufacturing (inverted 3) . Per 100 employ. .
III. FIXED CAPITAL INVESTMENT
Formation of Business Enterprises:
1957-59=100...
*38. Index of net business formation
108.4
rllO.3
Number
13. New business incorporations
16,072 r!7,388
New Investment Commitments:
*6. New orders, durable goods industries. . . Bil. dollars
r23.72
r23.73
1957-59=100...
94, Construction contracts, value
165
149
*10. Contracts and orders, plant and7 equip. . .Bit. dollars
r6.l6
5.72
do
11. New capital appropriations, mfg.
p6.05
..... do
24. New orders, mach. and equip, indus
r5.06
4! 85
9. Construction contracts, commercial
Mil. sq. ft.
and industrial buildings
63.00
floor space . . .
55.29
rl,38l
Ann. rate, thous.
7, Private nonfarm housing starts
1,3%
*29. New bldg. permits, private housing — 1957-59=100 ,.
99.4
96,4
IV, INVENTORIES AND INVENTORY
INVESTMENT
Inventory Investment and Purchasing:
21. Change in business
inventories, all
rf3.8
industries7 8
Ann. rate, bil.dol.
*31. Change in book value, 8manufacturing
and trade inventories
do . .
+3.9
r+9.4
37. Purchased materials, percent reporting
higher inventories
Percent
40
43
20. Change in book value, mfrs.1 inven8
-C-.8
r+2.4
tories of materials and supplies
Ann. rate, bil.dol.
26. Buying policy, prod, mtls., commitments 60 days or longer ©
66
61
Percent
32. Vendor performance, percent reporting
slower deliveries^
do .
43
41
25. Change in unfilled8 orders, durable
goods industries
T40.09
+0.52
Bil. dollars ..,
r40,8
471
p4.2
P40.7
p474
(NA)
-0.1
-0.9
-1.6
0.4
2.9
4.2
0.5
1.8
4.6
200
pl.4
203
(NA)
-1.3
-3.4
8.8
12.4
5.0
9.2
110.2
18,409
(NA)
(NA)
40.6
tl.3
1.2
3.8
0.8
2.5
48.2
r23.l8
168
5.72
p22.50
171
P5.95
r4.65
p4.6l
-0.5
*2.Q
40.4
+0.5
-0.3
3.1
6.7
3.5
2.8
3.3
3.8
6.6
4.7
9.7
4.2
0.0
+10." 7
17.7
+3.8
+4.3
62.01
rl,399
102.3
55.11
pi, 4.77
pl06.1
40.9
+5.3
+4.6
11.6
7.6
5.7
9.3
7.3
3.7
413.9
-4.9
7.1
2.3
O.3
-1.5
4.8
3.7
-1.3
7.4
-0.1
P+1.9
45
1*0.5
(NA)
47
(NA)
•K).2
-3.3
»2.3
-0.2
40.6
(NA)
4 20 . 4 4 < i . 2
+ 31.2 -27.3
-1.5
(NA)
iO.7
40.6
+2.4
41.8
-0.1
+ 5.9
(NA)
(NA)
-2.3
-2.9
•a. 8 +1.8
-7.1 44.0
-8.1
-0.9
-1.6 -11.1
41.8
41.3
+ 3.1
42.9
45.6
43.7
+5.5
-7.5
(NA)
6.5
•*7.5
44.7
44.4
1.2
1.5
+3.2
-1.9
(NA)
41.6
61
62
-1.4
4.3
5.3
+ 8.2
-7.6
44
50
-2.1
9.3
7.5
+4.9
* 2 . 3 (13.6
rt-0.43
P+0.35
-0.04
0.66
0.48
-0.43
+ 0.34 -0.08
V. PRICES, COSTS, AND PROFITS
Sensitive Commodity Prices:
*23. Industrial materials prices @
1957-59=100...
Stock Prices:
*19. Stock prices, 500 common stocks © . . .1941-43=10...
Profits and Profit Margins:
*16. Corporate profits after taxes 7
Ann. rate, bil.dol.
22, Ratio, profits to income originating,
corporate, all industries ?
Percent
18. Profits per dollar of sales, mfg.7
Cents
*17. Ratio, price to unit labor cost, mfg .... 1957-59=100..
VI. MONEY AND CREDIT
Flows of Money and Credit:
98. Change in 8money supply and time
deposits .
Ann.rate.percent
85. Change in total U.S. money
supply8. . . .
do
8
33, Change in mortgage debt
Ann. rate, bil.dol,
8
*113. Change in consumer installment
debt . .
.. do
8
do .
112. Change in business loans
7
110. Total private borrowing
Ann. rate, mil.dol.
Credit Difficulties:
14. Liabilities of business failures (inv. 3) Mil. dollars . ..
39. Delinquency rate, installment3 loans,
30 days and over (inverted )
Percent .
98.3
98.1
97.8
97.7
-0.7
0.9
1.3
-0.2
-0,3
»0.l
93.01
94.49
95.81
95.66
•t-1 . 8
2.1
2.5
41.6
a. 4
-0.2
P47.2
-1.4
2.4
5.6
4 1 . f)
pll.8
(NA)
r99.8
-2.1
»4.5
-0.4
2.1
4.5
0.5
4.2
5.7
0.6
-0.8
(NA)
«0.4
-0.7
40.2
100.2
+13.44
+11 . 52
+12.95
+2.70
+16.46
64.15
99.1
P99.3
+12.96
+8.04
+22.84
+ 4.13
-9.44
p59,104
r+6.12
r+0.72
p+20.60
+3-41
-2.34
p+9.72
p+6.72
(NA)
(NA)
pi 5. 36
4-0.87
+0.79
40.95
-0.10
-0.02
4-5.7
3.79
5.55
3.17
0.82
7.33
10.1
98.29
93.10
98.00
-1.4
19 . 7
1.65
(NA)
41.5
4.8
2.49 -0.48 -6.84 4 3 . 6 0
2.88 -3-/ + « -7.32 46.00
1.31 •<9.f^ -2.24 (NA)
0.87 -il.43 -0.72 (NA)
f
' 2 . 22 -2 ).90 47.10 47.70
-6.5
11.0
1.8.7
-53.2
2.6
U.I
4 f> . 3
-5.3
(NA)
Table 1
bed
BASIC DATA
NOVEMBER 1967
CHANGES OVER 4 LATEST MONTHS-Continued
Basic data1
Series
(See complete titles and sources on
back cover)
Unit of
measure
July
1967
Average percent change2 3
Sept
1967
Aug.
1967
Oct
1967
Oct '66 Oct '66 1953 to
to date to date
1965
(with4 (without (without
sign)
sign^ sign) 5 6
Current percent change3
July
to
Aug.
1967
Aug.
to
Sept
1967
Sept.
to
Oct
1967
ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
1. EMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT
Job Vacancies:
337
Thousands —
301 Nonagri job openings unfilled
169
46. Help-wanted advertising
1957-59=100..
Comprehensive Employment:
511. Man-hours in nonagri. establishments . . . Ann. rate, bil.
man-hours ... 133.68
65,939
*41. Employees in nonagri. establishments . . Thousands
do..... 70,633
42. Total nonagricultural employment .....
Comprehensive Unemployment:
*43. Unemployment rate, total (inverted 3). . . Percent
3.9
45. Avg. weekly insured
unemploy. rate,
3
2.8
do.....
State (inverted )
do
.1.8
40. Unemployment rate, married males (inv?)
II. PRODUCTION, INCOME, CONSUMPTION,
AND TRADE
Comprehensive Production: 7
49. GNP in cur rent dollars
Ann. rate, bil. dot
do
*50. GNP in 1958 dollars 7
1957-59-100.. , rl56.6
*47. Industrial production ... *
Comprehensive Income:
Ann. rate, bil.dol. 627.0
*52. Personal income
.163. U
do
53. Wages, salaries in mining, mfg., constr .
Comprehensive Consumption and Trade:
Mil. dollars... r 88, 991
*816. Manufacturing
and trade sales
Ann. rate, bit.dol.
57. Final sales7
Mil. dollars... 26, 444
*54. Sales of retail stores
III. FIXED CAPITAL IN VESTMENT
Backlog of Investment Commitments:
76.71
96. Unfilled orders, durable goods Indus. .9 . Bil. dollars...
do.....
97. Backlog of capital appropriations, mfg.
V. PRICES, COSTS, AND PROFITS
Comprehensive Wholesale Prices:
106.0
55. Wholesale pr ices, Indus . commod.® . . . 1957-59-100..
106.8
do
58. Wholesale prices, manufactured goods®
VI. MONEY AND CREDIT
Bank Reserves:
Mil. dollars...
+272
93 Free reserves ^ (inverted^)(u)
Money Market Interest Rates:
Per cent
114. Treasury bill rate®
-4.31
.do
6.06
116 Corporate bond yields®
do.....
115 Treasury bond yields®
4. 86
do
4.02
117. Municipal bond yields (u)
352
378
185
P360
p!87
-0.2
3.4
2.1
3.1
3.0
+4.5
+6.5
+7.4
+2.8
-4.8
+1.1
r 134. 59 P134.25
r66,047 p66,165
70,949
70,923
+0.1
+0.2
+0.2
0.4
0.3
0.4
0.4
0.3
0.4
+0.9
+0.4
+0.2
+0.1
-0.2
-0.2
+0.3
4.3
-1.1
3.7
3.9
+2.6
-7.9
-4.9
2.3^
1.9
-1*3
-0.3
5.1
6.4
4.2
+7.1
5.1 -11.1
+7.7
+10.0
+4.2
-5.6
+1.3
+0.5
-Q.2
1.3
0.6
0.5
1.5
1.3
1,0
+2.1
+1.1
+1.0
-0.9
-0.3
+0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.8
+0.7
+1,1
+0.4
+0.2
+0.3
-0.3
+0.2
+1.9
+0,2
0.8
1.9
1.0
1.0
1.4
1.0
+0.3
+1.7
-0.1
-0.8
(NA)
+1.3
-2.2
180
rl34.87
r66,190
70,726
3.8
2.6
2.0
4.1
- •=
!
2.4; • -
1.8
r791.2
r672.0
rl58.2
: r!56.7
P156.2
r631.6
165.2
r634.4
•rl65.5
p636.0
pl65.0
r89,295
r787.4
r26,422
p88,592
(NA)
r26,753 : p26,152
-1.5
:
+0.2
-0.3
0.0
r76.80
r77.23
p20.68
P77.58*
+0.1
-0.1
0.7
1.2
1.4
5.6
+0.1
+0.6
+1.8
+0.5
106.3
106.8
106.5
107.1
106.8
107.1
+0.1
+0.1
0.1
0.1
0.2
0.2
+0.3
0.0
+0.2
+0.3
+0,3
0.0
+298
r+268
p+157
-49
87
98
-26
+30
+111
4.28
6.30
4.95
3.99
4.45:
6.33
r4.99
4.12
4.59
6.53
5.19
4.30
-1.0
+0.7
+0.9
+0.8
6.2
2,9
2.2
2.7
6.7
1.6
1.6
2.5
-0.7
+4.0
+1.9
-0.7
+4.0
+0.5
+0.8
+3.3
+3.1
+3,2
+4.0
+4.4
0.6
0.6-
0.6:
+0.9
4.2
6.5
0.0
0.0
0.0
-0.1
1.2
3.2
+1.6
LAGGING INDICATORS
1. EMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT
Long-Duration Unemployment:
*502. Unemployment rate, persons unemployed
15 weeks and over (inverted3).
Percent
0.6
III. FIXED CAPITAL INVESTMENT
Investment Expenditures:
*61. Bus. expenditures, new plant and equip.7 Ann.rate, bil.dol.
505. Machinery and equipment sales and
business construction expenditures . .
do
a62.50
70.20
r69.75
p69.22
(NA)
0.0
1.5
1.6
-0.6
-0.8
(NA) .
Bil. dollars...
137.40
r!38.19
p!38.34;
(NA)
+0.4
0.4
0.5
+0.6
+0.1
(NA)
do.....
27.20
r27.35
p27.40
(NA)
+0 . 8
1.0
0.6
+0.6
+0.2
(NA)
IV. INVENTORIES AND INVENTORY
INVESTMENT
Inventories:
*71. Book value, mfg. and trade inventories .
65. Book value, mfrs.' inventories of
finished goods
Table 1
BASIC DATA
NOVEMBER 1967
bed
CHANGES OVER 4 LATEST MONTHS-Continued
Basic data1
Series
(See complete titles and sources on
back cover)
Unit of
measure
July
1967
Aug.
Average percent change2
Sept.
1967
Oct.
1967
Oct. '66
to date
(with
sign)*
3
Oct. '66 1953 to
to date
1965
(without
(without
5 6
5
sign) sign)
Current percent change3
July
to
Aug.
1967
Aug.
to
Sept.
1967
Sept
to
Oct.
1967
LAGGING INDICATORS-Continued
V, PRICES, COSTS, AND PROFITS
Unit Labor Costs:
68. Labor cost (cur. dol.) per unit of gross
product (1958 dol.), nonfin. corp.7. . . . Dollars
*62. Labor cost per unit of output, mfg
1957-59=100 ...
VI. MONEY AND CREDIT
Outstanding Debt:
66. Consumer installment debt
Mil. dollars....
*72. Commercial and industrial loans
outstanding
do
Interest Rates on Business Loans and
Mortgages:
*67. Bank rates on short-term bus. loans7®. Percent
118. Mortgage yields, residential ®
... do
106,6
pO.721
rl07.0
108.1
75,149
75,493
75,777
64,352
62,944
63,309
6.53
p!07.9
(NA)
p63,592
5.94
6.60
6.63
6.65
116,9
117.1
117.5
+1.3
+0.4
1.3
0.6
0.8
0.5
+1.1
+0.4
+1.0
-0.2
+0.4
0.4
0.8
+0.5
+0.4
(NA)
+0.5
1.2
1.0
-2.2
+0.6
+0.4
-2.0
-0.1
2.0
1.2
2.0
0.1
-0.2
+1.1
+0.5
+0.3
+0.2
0.2
0.2
+0.3
+0.2
40.3
-0.6
+2.6
-0.4
-0.1
84
1,357
72.4
3.3
16.4
7.7
3.0
341
492
58.4
3.8
12.4
6.3
3.0
-3.3
-6.2
+0.1
+4.2
4.3
7.9
1.3
5,3
2.5
4.2
3.1
3.6
3.8
2.3
13.9
27.4
22.5
18.1
OTHER SELECTED U.S. SERIES
V, PRICES, COSTS, AND PROFITS
Comprehensive Retail Prices:
81. Consumer prices®
1957-59=100...
116.5
VII. FOREIGN TRADE AND PAYMENTS
89. U.S. balance of payments:7 *
a. Liquidity balance basis
Mil. dollars ....
do
b. Official settlements basis
8
3
+352.0
88. Merchandise trade balance (inverted ) .....do
. . .do
86. Exports, excluding military aid
2,587.4
do
861. Export orders, durables exc. mot. veh.®
875
862. Export orders, nonelectrical machinery . 1957-59=100...
219
87. General imports
Mil. dollars , ... 2,235,4
VIII. FEDERAL GOVERNMENT ACTIVITIES
95. Federal surplus (+) or deficit
(-), nat'l.
income and prod, acct.7 8
Ann. rate, bit. dol.
84. Federal cash surplus (+) or deficit 7(-)7 8
do
83. Federal cash receipts from public7 . . . .
do
82. Federal cash payments to public . . . . .
do
101. National 7defense purchases, current
dollars
... do
91. Defense Dept. obligations, total .,
5,357
Mil. dollars...
do
1,435
90. Defense Dept. oblig procurement
99. New orders, defense products industries Bit. dollars
3.64
3,610
92. Military contract awards in U S
Mil. dollars....
p-670
P+-462
+446.6
2,560*7
841
r230
2,1H,1
-84
+160
+416.7
2,631.6
P911
P216
2,214.9
+166.6
2,383.0
(NA)
(NA)
2,216.4
p-13.1
-19.5
154.0
173.5
r73.3
6,953
1,907
1-2.84
r3,686
7,814
3,221
r3.55
P 3,665
+12.8
(NA)
+3.8
+3.4
48.8
+1.7
+1.8
(NA)
(NA)
P3.49
11.0
24.8
13.8
10.2
-120
+1,292
-94.6
-1.0
-3.9
+5,0
-5.4
+29,9 +250.1
42,8
+8.3
-6.1
+4.8
-9-4
(NA)
(NA)
+0.1
+1.6
-21.1
-0.1
+13.8
+1.1
429.8
+32.9
-22.0
+12.4
+68.9
+25.0
+2.1
-0.6
(NA)
(NA)
-1.7
(NA)
U.S. SERIES UNDER CONSIDERATION
850. Ratio output to capacity mfg 7
851. Ratio! inventories to sales, mfg., trade.
852. Ratio, unfilled orders to shipments,
manufacturers* durable goods
853. Ratio, production of business equipment
to consumer goods
854. Ratio, personal saving
to disposable
personal income7
855. Ratio, nonagri. job openings unfilled
Percent
Ratio
1957-59 = 100...
p83.8
rl.54
rl.55
pl.56
(NA)
-2.3
+0.2
2.3
0.8
2.2
1.0
+0.6
+0.6
(NA)
3.71
r3.63
r3.82
P3.88
+0.5
1.8
2.0
-2.2
+5.2
+1.6
r!21.5
rl21.9
p!20.4
-0.3
0.7
1.0
-1.1
+0.3
-3.2
+2.3
7.8
8.5
+4.5
-2.7
+0.1
-3.7
4.3
0.2
3.7
5.8
0.4
3.6
+5.4
+0.3
(NA)
+0.8
-0.1
-10.1
-0.2
r!22.9
Rat in
... do . .
856. Ratio, avg. earnings to consumer prices 1957-59=100...
857. Vacancy rate, total rental housing7 . . . Percent
rO.070
0.112
115.2
0.118
115.6
(NA)
0.119
115.5
pO.107
pllS.3
-1.2
*Series included in the 1966 NBER "short list" of indicators. ©Not seasonally adjusted. NA = not available; r ^revised; p= preliminary; e =estimated; anticipated.
^Series are seasonally adjusted except for those series, indicated by ©, that appear to contain no seasonal movement.
See additional
basic data and notes in
3
table 2.
Average percent changes are based on month-to-month (or quarter-to-quarter) percent changes for the specified periods.
To facilitate interpretations of
cyclical movements, those series that usually fall when general business activity rises and rise when business falls are inverted so that rises are shown as declines and
declines as rises (see series 3, 5, 14, 39, 40, 43, 45, 88, 93, and 502). 5 Percent changes are computed in the usual way
but the signs are reversed. See footnote 8 for other
"change" qualifications.
Average computed with regard to sign.
Average computed without regard to sign. 8 6The period varies among the series; however, for most
series, the period covered is 1953-65.
'Quarterly series; figures are placed in the middle month of quarter.
Since basic data for this series are expressed in plus or
minus amounts, the changes are month-to-month (or quarter-to-quarter) differences expressed in the same unit of measure as the basic data, rather than in percentages.9Figures
are placed in the last month of quarter.
8
Chart 1A
bed
NOVEMBER
BASIC DATA
1967
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948
to PRESENT
Leading Indicators
I. EMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT
(July) (Aug.)
(Nov.) (Oct.)
P
T
P
(July) (Apr.)
P T
T
(May] (Feb.)
P T
*1. Avg. workweek, prod. wkr$., mfg. (hours)
{
700-
*30. Nonagri. placements, all Indus, (thous.)
600500400-
2. Accession rate, mfg. (per 100 employees)
543J
150n
5, Avg. weekly initial claims, State unempl. insur. (thous.-inverted scale)
200-
3. Layoff rate, mfg, (per 100 employees-inverted scale)
1948
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
€0
61
62
63
64
See 'How to Read Charts 1 and <V page 4. Asterisk [*) identifies series on 'short list'. Current data for fttese series are stowm m page 33.
67
1968
Chart 1A
Wm BASIC DATA
NOVEMBER
1967
bed
JJ2 BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 to PRESENT-Continued
Ai^ Leading Indicators-Continued
Iff. FIXED CAPITAL INVESTMENT
(Nov.) (Oct.)
P
T
10
(July) (Apr.)
(July) (Aug.)
P
T
P
(May) (Feb.)
P T
T
*38. Index of net Ins. formation (1957-59-100)
13. New bus. incorporations (thous.)
*6. New orders, dur. goods Indus, (bil. dol
94. Construction contracts, total value (index:
1957-59=1I§; MCD moving~avgT-5-terniI
*10. Contracts and orders, plant and equip, (bit, dot,
S3
§4
85
(risk (*) oderctifges
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
on 'short list'. Current data for these series are shown @n pages 33 and 34,
66
67
1968
Chart 1A
bed
NOVEMBER
BASIC DATA
1967
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 to PRESENT-Continued
Leading Indicators -Continued
HI. FIXED CAPITAL INVESTMENT- Continued
(July) (Aug.)
(Nov.) (Oct.)
P
T
P
(July) (Apr.)
P T
T
(May) (Feb.)
P T
11. INew capital appropriations, mfg., Q (bil. dot
24. New orders, raacb, and equip, iftdws. (bil. do).
9. Constr. contracts, com. and metes, (mil. sq. ft.
of floor area; MCD moving avf.^B-tefffl
7. Private nonfarm housing starts (ann. rate
millions; MOD moving avg.-6-term)
1*29. New bldg. permits, private
housing units (index-1957-59=100)
1948
4S
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
50
See 'H@w to iead Charts 1 aotii 2,' page 4. Asterisk |*J sdintifigs series on 'short list'. Current
60
61
62
63
64
_~-_
1SS8
for flhese. series are stowra m p^gi 34.
11
Chart 1A
BASIC DATA
NOVEMBER 1967
bed
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 to PRESENT -Continued
Leading Indicators-Continued
EL INVENTORIES AND INVENTORY INVESTMENT
(Nov.) (Oct.l
P
(July) (Aug.)
T
P
(July) (Apr.)
T
P
(May) (Feb.)
T
P
T
Inventory Investment and Purchasing
+20-I
21. Change in te; inventories, aW INus., Q (ann. rate, bii. dol.j
+10-
«
to
-10J
*31. Change in book value, mfg. and trade inventories
. rate, bil.iido^'ttCD moving avg.-5«term]
+20 n
I
37. Purchased materials, percent of companies reporting higher inventories
75 n
50
25J
•!
;I
20. Change to took value, mfrs.' inventories of materials and
supplies (ann. rate, bil. dot.; MOD moving avg.-6-term]
:
l
'
A
.
7\~,
\x ^/ v
i
,
it
X^-\
S
/\'b
^^\fi
\f\fj
,. i, :
^
;
fr^ v
^ *
f5-
M
0-
26. Buying policy, prod. mtls.f percent of companies
reporting commitments 60 days or longer
75-
50
1948
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
S@@ 'H@w to Read Darts t aod 2/ page 4. Asterisk |*] identifies saries on 'sGiort list'. Current data for these series are shown on page 3D.
12
65
66
67 1968
Chart 1A
bed
BASIC DATA
NOVEMBER 1967
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 to PRESENT-Continued
Leading Indicators-Continued
EL. INVENTORIES AND INVENTORY INVESTMENT-Continued
(July) (Aug.)
(Nov.) (Oct.)
P
T
P
IMay) (Feb.)
P T
(July) (Apr.)
P T
T
32. Vendor performance, {jercent of companies reporting
deliveries
A
25, Change in unfilled orders, dur. goods Indus, (bil. doK; MOD moving avg.-4-term)
IE. PRICES, COSTS, AND PROFITS
*23. Industrial materials prices (index; 1957-59^100)
if.. MOCK prices, auu common
.stocks (index: 1941-43=10)
1948
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
6?
1968
See 'How to Read Charts 1 and 2,' page 4. Asterisk [ * } identifies series on 'short list'. Current data for these series are shown on pages 35 and 36.
13
Chart 1A
BASIC DATA
NOVEMBER
1967
bed
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 to PRESENT-Continued
Leading Indicators-Continued
I. PRICES, COSTS, AND PROFUS-Continued
(Nov.) (Oct.)
(July) (Aug.)
P
T
P
T
(May) (Feb.
P T
(July) (Apr.
P
T
Profits and Profit Margins
70 -|
60
*16. Operate profits afto; taxes, Q (ann. rate, bil. do I.;
50-
4030
20 J
18 <
14-
10
14-
18. Profits par dollar of sales, mfg., Q (cents]
12
10-
AA
8=
115-
*17. Ratio, price to unit labor cost, mfg. (index: 1957-59=100]
110105100 =
95-
51
S@i 'tow to
14
§2
(
53
54
59 •
S6
m
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
! iiirad 2, pag©-4. listerefe ( * ) identifies seres m 'shert Slst'. OoTOfst data for these series are showR on page 36.
S6
S7
1968
Chart 1A
bed
NOVEMBER
BASIC DATA
1967
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 to PRESENT-Continued
Leading Indicators-Continued
. MONEY AND CREDIT
[Nov.) (Oct.)
P
T
(July) (Apr.)
P T
(July) (Aug.)
P
T
(May) [Feb.)
P T
98. Change in money supply and time deposits
(ann. rate, percent; MCO moving avg.-6-term)
85. Change in money supply (ann. rate, percent; MCO moving avg.-6-term)
+30 -i
33, Change in mortgage debt (ann. rate, bil. dol.j
+25+20
+15+10-
0
*113. Change in consumer installment debt (ann. rate, bil. dol.)
+10-1
112. Change in business loans (ann. rate, bil. do!.; MCD moving avg.-5-term)
+5-
1948
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
1968
See 'How to Read Charts 1 and 2,' page 4. Asterisk (*) identifies series on 'short list'. Current data for tftese series are shown on page 31
15
Chart 1A
BASIC DATA
NOVEMBER
1967
bed
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 to PRESENT-Continued
Leading Indicators-Continued
SL MONEY AND CREDIT-Continued
(Nov.) (Oct.)
P
T
(luly) (Aug.)
P
T
(May) (Feb.;
P T
(July) (Apr.)
P T
Plows of Money and Credit-Continued
10080-
110. Total private borrowing, Q (ann. rate, bit. dol
6040^
20-
Credit Difficulties
14. Liab. of bus. failures (mil. dol.- inverted scale;
1.0-
39. Delinquency rate, 30 days and over, total
instatlment loans (percent-inverted scale)
/V
1.5-
2.0-
2.5-
3.0J
1948
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
Sea 'How to Read Charts 1 and 2,' pagi4. Current data for these series are shown on page 37.
16
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
1968
bed
Chart 1A
NOVEMBER
BASIC DATA
1967
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 to PRESENT-Continued
Roughly Coincident Indicators
fl
I. EMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT
(July) (Aug.)
P
T
(Nov.) (Octj
P
T
(July) (Apr.)
P
T
(May) (Feb.;
P T
301, Nonagri. job openings unfilled, BES (thousands)
46, Help-wanted advertising (index: 1957-59=100)
*41. Employees in nonagri.
establishments (millions)
42. Total nonagri. employment millions)
1948
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
1968
See 'How to Read Charts 1 and 2; page4. Asterisk , ' j identifies series on 'short list'. Current data for these series are shown on page 38.
17
Chart 1A
BASIC DATA
NOVEMBER
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948
1967
bed
to PRESENT-Continued
Roughly Coincident Indicators-Continued
I. EMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT-Continued
(Nov.) (Oct.)
P
T
P
(May) (Feb.)
P T
(July) (Apr.)
(July) (Aug.)
P
T
Comprehensive Unemployment
T
*43. Ufivwployment rate, Mil (percent-inverted scale)
3®
0 ™
2-
48. Avg. weekly insured unemployment filt (percent-averted scale)
40. Unemployment rate, married malts (percent-inverted scale)
I. PRODUCTION, INCOME, CONSUMPTION, AND TRADt
*50. 6NP in 1958 dollars, Q
(ann. TafeTBTHbl.}
*47. Industrial production
(index: 1957-59=100)
194B
4t
S0
51
52
53
94
55
56
57
58
59
60
SI
62
63
64
65
S@i 'H&w to to(o) CtBarts H ap^3 2; joiag© 4. astoraSs |*| y@fatifiQs series on 'short list'. Current data for these series are sdewu on pages 36 anil 38,
18
66
67
1968
Chart 1A
bed
BASIC DATA
NOVEMBER 1967
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 to PRESENT-Continued
Roughly Coincident Indicators-Continued
IE. PRODUCTION, INCOME, CONSUMPTION, AND TRADE-Continued
(July) (Aug.)
P
T
(Nov.) (Oct.)
P
T
(July] (Apr.)
P T
(May) (Feb.)
P T
*52. Personal income (ann. rate, bil. do).
53. Wages and salaries,iiuminm& ~
mfg;,, constr. [ann. ratetM. ctol.)
*54. Sales of retail
~ stores Ibil, do!)
1948
49
SO
51
52
S3
54
§5
56
57
58
§9
See 'How to Read Charts 1 and 2,' pap 4. Asterisk (*J identifies seregs on 'short list*. Current date
60
61
tor
61
©3
(14
67
1968
m® stowe OT pag© 39.
19
Chart 1A
BASIC DATA
NOVEMBER 1967
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 to PRESENT-Continued
bed
Roughly Coincident Indicators-Continued
Iff. FIXED CAPITAL INVESTMENT
(Nov.) (Oct.)
P
T
(July) (Aug.]
P
T
(July) (Apr.)
P T
(May) (Feb.]
P T
Backlog of Investment Commitments
120-.
10080-
96. Mfrs.1 unfilled orders, dur. goods indus. (bil. dol.|
60-
40-I
30-i
25-
197, Backlog of cap. appropriations, mfg., Q (bil. dol.)-
201510-
. PRICES, COSTS, AND PROFITS
Comprehensive Wholesale Prices
115110 =
55. Wholesale prices, industrial commodities {index! 1957-59=100)
1051009590-
115"
11058. Wholesale prices, mfrd, pods (Index: 1957-59=100^
105"
10095-
goes80-
1948
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
See 'Hew to Read Charts 1 and 2,' pap 4. Current data for these series are shown on page 40.
Digitized 20
for FRASER
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67 1968
Chart 1A
bed
NOVEMBER
BASIC DATA
1967
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 to PRESENT-Continued
Roughly Coincident Indicators-Continued
. MONEY AND CREDIT
(Nov.) (Oct.)
P
(July) (Aug.)
T
P
(July) (Apr.)
T
P
(May] (Feb.)
T
P
T
93. Free reserves (bil. dol.-inverted scale
114, Treasury bill rate (percent)
116, Corporate bond yields percent)
115. Treasury bond yields percent
117, Municipal bond yields (percent)
1948
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
1968
See 'How to Read Charts 1 and 2/ page 4. Currant data for these series are shown on page 40.
21
Chart 1A
BASIC DATA
NOVEMBER 1967
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 to PRESENT-Continued
Lagging Indicators
bed
I. EMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT
(Nov.) (Oct.)
P
T
(July) (Apr.)
P T
(July) (Aug.]
P
t
(May) (Feb.]
P T
Long Duration Unemployment
*502. Unemployrttfif fate, persons unempfefld 15 weeks anl wtr (percent-inverted
O-i
Itt. FIXED CAPITAL INVESTMENT
90
1
80-
70»
Investment Expenditures
60-
s*^
*61. Bus. exptni, new plant and equip., a |ann. rate, bil. dol.)
5040J
90 -I
80505. Mach. mi equip, sales and bus, constr.
expend, (aim, rate, bii. dol.]
70-
SO -
50-
40 J
BE. INVENTORIES AND INVENTORY INVESTMENT
160140-
*71. Book value, mfg. and trade inventories (biL dol.)
1201008030-
65. Book value of mfrs.' inverrtories, finished goods (bit. dol.
25»
2015-
1948
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
See 'How to Read Charts 1 and 2,' pagi4. Asterisk (*] identifies series on 'short list'. Current data for these series are shown on page 41.
65
66
67 1968
Chart 1A
bed
NOVEMBER
BASIC DATA
1967
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 to PRESENT-Continued
. PRICES, COSTS, AND PROFITS
(July) (Apr.)
(Gflay) (Feb.)
F T
P
Unit Labor Costs
T
Labor cost (curr. dolj per do), of
real corp. GNP.Q (doL).
*62. Labor cost per unit of output
IE. MONEY AND CREDIT
Outstanding Debt
86. Consumer installment debt (bil. dol.)
*72. Com. and ind. loans outstanding, weekly,
reporting large com. banks (bil. dol.)
Interest Rates on Business Loans and Mortgages
*67. Bank rates on short-term
bus. loans, Q (percent]
5-
4
118. Mortgage yields, residential (percent)
/
V
V
1948
49
90
51
52
53
54
55
56
5-
57
58
59
60
See 'How to Read Charts 1 and 2,' pagg 4. Asterisk ( * J identifies series on 'short list'. Current date for
61
62
63
©4
6S
66
1963
are shewn m page 42.
!23
Chart 1A
BASIC DATA
NOVEMBER
1967
bed
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 to PRESENT-Continued
Other Selected U.S. Series
I. PRICES, COSTS, AND PROFITS
(Nov.) (Oct.)
(July) (Aug.)
P
(July) (Apr.)
P
T
(May) (Feb.)
T
P
T
Comprehensive Retail Prices
120115-
JB1. Congumur trices (index: 1957--59=100)
110105<
JCLT. FOREIGN TRADE AND PAYMENTS
89. U.S. balance of payments, Q (bil. dol.)
b. Offictal settlements basis
8.8. Merchandise trade balance fbil. dol.-inverted scale; 4-term moving avg.]
+1.0-
1948
49
9©
§1
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
Sea 'How to toil Ctorts 1 and 2/ puge 4. twtmt data for these serias are shown an page 43.
24.
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
1068
Chart 1A
OCCf
NOVEMBER 1967
BASIC DATA
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 to PRESENT-Continued
Other Selected U.S. Series-Continued
301. FOREIGN TRADE AND PAYMENTS-Continued
(July) (Apr.)
(July) (Aug.)
[Nov.) (Oct.)
P T
P
T
P
T
(May) (Feb.)
P T
86. Exports, exc. military aid H. doi.;
861. Export orders, durables exc. motor vehicles
rmT ~ "
(index: 1957-59-100; MCD moving avg.-4-term)
87. General imports (bil. dot.; MCD moving avg.-4-term)
1.5-
49
S©
SI
S2
53
§4
59,
56
97
S8
67
I960
i to Rga$ Ctiarte 1 mi 2,' pigs 4. Cumnt data for ttese series are shown on pagi 43.
25
Chart 1A
BASIC DATA
bed
NOVEMBER 1967
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948
to PRESENT-Continued
Other Selected U.S. Series-Continued
HH.FEDERAL GOVERNMENT ACTIVITIES
(Nov.) (Oct.)
P
T
(July)
P
(July) (Apr.)
(Aug.)
T
P
(May) (Feb.)
T
P
T
95, Fed, surplus or deficit, national income and product acct, Q (ann, rate, bil. dol.)
\. 1r\\
^W
^~
^VA~
^
!
:
+10-
^-^X^
y
\
;,
\^T
/^
X^V^-/
!
'
\ ^ i
:
. J:
f*\
AA
\/
^
Q-
\s \
:
V
^^
»10-
+30 -i
84. Fed, cash surplus or deficit, Q (ann. rate, bil. doJ.]
+20
\
+10-
0«
-10-
2001
18083 Fed cash receipts from puMic, Q [ann rate, bi dol.)
140120100-
/ OB
if. fed. tash payments to public, Q |ann. rate, by. dol.)
200 -i
18018014012010080-
194S
49
§0
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
See 'Haw to Read Charts 1 add 2,' page 4. Current data for these strigs ars shown on page 44.
Digitized for
26FRASER
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
1968
Chart 1A
bed
BASIC DATA
NOVEMBER 1967
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 to PRESENT-Continued jj
Other Selected U.S. Series-Continued
JOtt. FEDERAL GOVERNMENT ACTlVITIES-Continued
(Nov.) (Oct.]
P
I
(July) (Aug.)
(July! (Apr.)
P
(May) (Fab.)
P
T
T
708050'
4030-
M
90. Defense Dept. oblig., procurement (fail, dot.; MCD moving avg.-6-term)
T T I
e
s
4 •**
2-
6
92. Military contract awards in U.S. (bil. dot.; MCD moving avg.-6-term)
43-
1948
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
1968
Sea 'How to Read Charts 1 and 2,' page 4. Current data for these series are shown on page 44.
27
Chart 1A
BASIC DATA
NOVEMBER
1967
bed
fl 0H BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 to PRESENT-Continued
U.S. Series Under Consideration
(July] (Aug.)
P T
(Nov.) (Oct.)
P
T
/
\
/
/"
»/
\^
:
>v
\
(May) (Feb.;
P T
IUU -
850. Raae, wtput to capacity, mfg., Q (percent)
r \ i\J: \
-*A
(July) (Apr.)
P T
V
'
™
__^
v^^
• ^ A /v f+-~-~/~~~*f
\ / - \s
""•
80-
V
551. Ratio, inventories to sales, mfg, and trade
852. Ratio, unfilled orders to shipments,
mfrs.' dur. goods indus
153 Ratio, prod^tton of business equipment to
goo3s Jlnlex:
§1
Digitized for
28 FRASER
§2
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
6?
9090-
1368
Chart 1A
bed
BASIC DATA
NOVEMBER 1967
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 to PRESENT-Continued
U.S. Series Under Consideration-Continued
(Nov.) (Oct.)
P
T
P
(Aug.)
T
P
(Apr,]
T
(May) (Fib,
P T
854. Ratto, personal saving to disposable personal income, Q
855. Ratio, nonagri. job openings unfilled to
number of persons unemployed
856, Ratio, avg. hourly earnings of prod, workers in mfg.
to consumer prices {index: 1957-59=100}
857. Vacancy rate lei total rental bousing, Q (percent)
1948
49
SO
51
52
.
S3
54
55
56
57
58
59
See 'How to Read Charts 1 and 2', page 4. Current data for these series are shown on page 45.
29
Chart IB
BASIC DATA
.NOVEMBER
1967
SERIES FOR INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS
FROM 1948 to PRESENT
Industrial Production Indexes
(1957-59=100]
126. France
^^^
125. West Germany
121. OECD European countries
1948 49
90
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
S@@ Ww fc- ^eao Clsa^g 1 and 2/ pgge 4. Cyfr@Tit data for these series are shown m paga 46.
Digitized30
for FRASER
60
€1
62
63
65
67
19S8
bed
Chart IB
bed
NOVEMBER
BASIC DATA
1967
SERIES FOR INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS |
FROM 1948 to PRESENT-Continued
Consumer Price Indexes
(1957-59=1001
1948
49
5©
51
52
53
See low to tod Ctots 11 and 2/ pag® 4,
55
56
57
58
59
62
63
64
65
66
67
31
Chart IB
BASIC DATA
NOVEMBER
1967
bed
SERIES FOR INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS
FROM 1948 to PRESENT-Continued
32
S3
§3
§4
55
56
57
58
. Current data fir these series are shown on page 48.
99
67
1968
Table 2A
bed
BASIC DATA
NOVEMBER 1967
LATEST DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES
Leading Indicators
Major
Economic Process
Minor
Economic Process
Year
and
month
EMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT
FIXED CAPITAL INVESTMENT
Marginal Employment Adjustments
Formation Df Business
Enter irises
*1. Average
workweek of
production
workers,
manufacturing
*30. Nonagricultural placements,
all industries
2. Accession
rate, manufacturing
(Hours)
(Thous.)
(Per 100 employees)
1965
January
February
March
41.1
41.2
41.3
April
May
June
41.0
41.1 i
41.0
535
533
548
July
August
September
41.0
41.1
41.0
541
537
529
October
November
December
41.2
41.4
41.4
547
544
563
41.4
£>41.6
41.5
570
g> 600
589
April
May
June
41.5
41.4
41.3
522
513
567
4.9
5.1
B> 5.2
July
August
September
41.2
41.4
41.4
542
543
509
October
November
December
1967
January
February
March
41.3
41.3
5. Average
weekly initial
claims for unemployment insurance, State
programs l
(Thous.)
3. Layoff rate,
manufacturing
(Per 100 employees)
*38. Index of net
13. Number of new
business formation business incorporations
(1957-59 = 100)
(Number)
237
1.4
1.4
1.4
106.5
106.6
106.1
16,784
16,854
17,131
237
224
224
1.5
1.4
1.4
104.7
105.4
106.2
16,664
16,580
17,017
4,1
4.3
4.5
231
248
218
1.5"
1.6
L4
106.5
105.7 ;
106.1
16,844
16,901
17,136
4,5
4.8
4.9
209
212
206
1.3
1.3
1.4
105.5
106.X
106.9
16,994
17,606
17,625
4.9
4.9
5.1 ,
222
219
182 ;
1,2
1.2
1.1
109.1
109.6
109.6
18,087
17,451
17,266
§t>179
185
186
1.2
1.1
1.3
107.6
106.8
106.2
17,057
16,644
16,577
4.7
5.1
4.9
230
196
183
1.7
1.1
1.1
104. $
103.9
102.7
16,074
16,343
15,764
5.1
4.8
4.6
186
194
212
1.1
1.2
a.o
533
530
524
1.3
103.3
100.6
101.4
16,233
16,206
16,583
41.0
40.3
40.4
534
519
497
4.6
4.3
4.1
203
242
. 256
1.4
1.5
1.7
102.2
103.2
103.3
16,703
15,987
16,244
April
May
June
40.5
40.3
40.3
474
448
487
4.2
4.6
4.6
263
234
225
1.5
1.4
1,4
104.0
105.7
109.0
16,760
17,627
17,799
July
August
September
40.4
40.7
484
487
471
4.2
4,3
p4.2
265
211.
200
1.6
E> rl.l
pi. 4
(NA)
203
1966
January
February
March
October
November
December
r40.8
p40.7
.
..
522
549
528
P474:
- •-
.: 4 , 0 ^
,
....
,
. : ' . 4,1:
•,.
4,2
!:
:
4.0
4.1:
4.4
:
.,:,
.
.
.
243
:'.
248
:
:
;
(MA)
108.4'
R>!P110.3
110.2
(NA)
16,072
r!7,388
g> 18,409'
(NA)
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ®. Currenthigh values are indicated by K>; for series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3, 5, 14, 39, 40, 43, 45, 93, and 502),\current low values are indicated by
. Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. Series preceded by
terisk (*) are included in the 1966 NBER "short list" of indicators. The V indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; V, anticipated; and "NA", not available.
an asteri
x
Data exclude Puerto Rico which is included in.figures published by source agency.
33
Table 2A
BASIC DATA
NOVEMBER
LATEST DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES-Continued
1967
bed
Leading Indicators—Continued
Major
Economic Process
Minor
Economic Process
Year
and
month
1965
January
February
March
FIXED CAPITAL INVESTMENT-Con.
New Investment Commitments
*6. Value of
manufacturers'
new orders,
durable goods
industries
94. Index of
construction
contracts, total
value
*10, Contracts
and orders for
plant and equipment
(Bil.dol.)
(1957-59 = 100)
(Bil. dol.)
4.72
4-67
21.71
137
140
141
April
May
June
22.04
20.99
21.31
152
145
139
4.98
5.02
4.81
July
August
September
22.20
21.51
22.16
149
139
147
October
November
December
1966
January
February
March
22.42
22.39
23.40
April
May
June
21.27
21.13
July
August
September
11. Newly approved capital
appropriations,
1,000 manufacturing corporations
(Bil.dol.)
24. Value of
manufacturers'
new orders, machinery and
equipment industries
(Bil.dol.)
3.96
3.80
9. Construction 7. New private
contracts, com- nonfarm housing
mercial and in- units started1
dustrial buildings
(Mil. sq.ft.
floor space) (Ann. rate, thous.)
*29. Index of
new private
housing units authorized by local3
building permits
(1957-59=100)
4.02
52.94
54.89
54.41
1,384
1,418
1,429
112.3
108.2
109.9
5^51
4.08
4.07
4.09
57.74
57.52
57.72
1,432
1,461
1,476
106.2
109.7
109.9
5.16
4*90
5.15
5^62
4.35
4.16
4.15
56.68
52.00
62.97
1,484
1,382
1,453
108.9
108.4
104.1
147
141
153
5.13
5.05
5.35
6!ii
4.25
4.32
4.58
60.55
61.74
64.13
1,438
1,443
1,544
109.8
112.9
114.0
23.58
23.74
24.89
152
157
158
5.46
5.71
5.66
6.*34
4.45
4.58
4.59
62.29
B>70.42
67.99
1,403
1,381
1,400
111.9
106.4
112.1
24.20
24.28
24.59
161
156
147
5.91
5.77
5.57
B> 6^9
4.79
4.84
4.75
68.28
64.00
65.85
1,356
1,232
1,161
105.3
97.4
84.7
24.37
23.51
g> 25.27
147
139
146
6.10
5.87
g> 6.28
5^97
g> 5.09
4.81
4.91
63.54
63.52
64.40
1,061
1,088
1,020
82.1
75.2
65.3
5. '63
4.84
October
November
December
1967
January
February
March
24.24
23.03
23.96
139
130
133
5.76
5.52
5.4&
5.* 96
4.82
4.65
4.60
54.76
64.42
60.21
824
956
910
63.4
63.4
67.1
22.07
22.33
22.06
126
143 .
149
5.40
5.34
5.50
r5.76.
4.54
4.24
4.32
49.09
57.84
56. H
1,079
1,132
1,067
83.1
78.9
81.9
April
May
June
22.23
23.86
24.26
138
154
164
5.37
5.55
-5.82
rs'.83
4.44
4.61
4.79
59.04
53.16
64.03
1,099
1,254
1,214
90.7
91.1
97.9
r23,72
r23,73
r23.l3
149
165
168
5.72 1
r6.l6
5.72
p6l(J5
4.85
r5.06
r4.65
55.29
63.00
62.01
1,356
r 1,3 81
r 1,399
96.4
99.4
102.3
p22.50
g> 171
p4.6l
55.13
pl,477
July
August. ...
September
...
October
November
December
P5.95
pl06.l
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ® . Current high values are indicated by[j]>; forseriesthat move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3, 5, 14, 39, 40, 43, 45, 93, and 502). current low values are indicated by
. Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. Series preceded by
an asterisk (*) are included in the 1966 NBER "short list" of indicators. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
1
High value (l,833) was reached in October 1963.
High value (124.6) was reached in February 1964.
3
34
Table 2A
bed
BASIC DATA
NOVEMBER 1967
LATEST DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES-Continued
Leading Indicators—Continued
Major
Economic Process
Minor
Economic Process
INVENTORIES AND INVENTORY INVESTMENT
Inventory Investment and Purchasing
37. Purchased ma21. Change in
20. Change in
26. Production
*31, Change in
business invenbook value of
book value of
materials, perterials, percent of
tories after valmanufacturing
manufacturers'
cent of compacompanies reportuation adjustand trade inveninventories of
nies reporting
ing higher
inven1
ment, all industories, total
materials2 and
commitments 60
tor! es
tries
days or longer®
supplies
(Ann. rate, bil.dol.) (Ann. rate, bil.dol.) (Percent reporting) (Ann. rate, bil.dol.) (Percent reporting)
Year
and
month
1965
January
February
March
32. Vendor performance, percent of
companies reporting
slower deliveries,®
25. Change in
unfilled orders,
durable goods
industries
(Percent reporting)
(Bil.dol.)
4-10.6
+12.6
+3.S
+14.9
61
62
57
+1.0
+0.4
+2.5
65
65
68
68
72
66
+0.32
+0.81
+0.44
April
May
June
+8,8
+8.8
+8.4
+7.8
61
59
56
+5.3
+1.5
-0.5
67
65
62
72
70
66
+0.84
+0.50
+0,58
July
August
September
+9^4
+11.5
+12.2
+2.3
54
58
57
+0,7
+1.4
+3.1
62
63
61
62
64
62
+0.38
+0,32
+1.24
+9.*9
+6.3
+10.2
+19.4
47
49
49
+0.9
+1,0
+2.0
63
63
63
60
66
72
+1.28
+0.78
+1.09
+8,1
+11.7
+13.1
49
47
52
+0.9
+1.2
+0.8
68
67
68
74
+9.9
|D>.86
+1.27
+1.31
+1,65
April
May
June
+14.. o
+12.8
+17.7
+16.9
51
53
54
+3.8
+3.4
+4.0
69
70
72
82
75
69
July
August
September
+11 .'4
+13.6
+15.9
+9.6
58
58
54
+1.1
+5,4
+3.3
73
73
72
70
73
72
+1.34
+0,64
B> +2.30
E> 75
70
64
57
+0.79
-0.21
+0,24
October
November
December
1966
January
February
March.
October
November
December
1967
January
February
March
+1.49
+1.36
+1,70
g> +18.5
+18.6
+17.6
g> +-20.3
58
57
56
+1.4
+2.0
+1.6
73
70
+7.1
+12.5
+2.3
+3.8
47
43
46
+2.2
-1.0
-0.3
72
67
68
48
51
38
-0.99
-0.30
-1.07
+3.1
+0.9
-4.2
37
39
42
+0.6
-1.1
-1.0
67
66
68
39
36
38
-0.04
+0.96
+1.21
+3.9
r+9.4
p+1.9
40
43
45
-0.8
r+2.4
P+0.5
61
66
61
41
43
44
+0.52
r+0.09.
r+0.43
'(NA)
47
(NA)
62
50
p+0.35
;
!
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
+0.5
r+3^8
NOTE1 Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ® . Currenthigh values are indicated by(f>- for series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3, 5, 14, 39, 40, 43, 45, 93, and 502), current low values are indicated by
[j>>. Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. Series preceded by
an asterisk (*) are included in the 1966 NBER "short list" of indicators. The V indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
x
High value (63) was reached in November 1964.
High value (+6.6) was reached in December 1961.
2
35
Table 2A
BASIC DATA
NOVEMBER 1967
LATEST DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES-Continued
bed
Leading Indicators—Continued
Major
Economic Process
Minor
Sensitive Commodity
Economic Process
Prices
PRICES, COSTS, AND PROFITS
*19. Index of stock
*23. Index of industrial materials prices® prices, 500 common
stocks ®
Year
and
month
(1957-59 = 100)
Profits and Profit Margins
Stock Prices
(1941-43 = 10)
*165 Corporate profits
after taxes
(Ann, rate, bil. dol )
22. Ratio of profits to
income originating,
corporate, all industries
(Percent)
18. Profits (before
taxes) per dollar of
sales, all manufacturing corporations
*17. Ratio, price to
unit labor cost index,
manufacturing
(Cents)
(1957-59=100)
Revised1
1965
January
February
March
110.6
110.7
113.2
86.12
86.75
86.83
43.7
13!6
9.6
103.0
103.0
103.1
April
May
June
116.7
116.9
115.3
87.97
89.28
85.04
44^6
13!i
9!3
103.5
103.7
104.5
July
August
September
114.6
115.2
114.8
84.91
86.49
89.38
44! 8
13*.6
9*.4
104.6
104.2
103.5
October
November
December
1966
January
February
March
115.0
115.5
117.1
91.39
92.15
91.73
47*.7
13! 5
9.*5
103.2
103.6
104.4
120.5
122.9
E>*123.5
93.32
92.69
88.88
49^2
E> 13.5
B> 9!s
105.1
105.1
105.1
121.5
118.3
118.4
91.60
86.78
86,06
49^2
13!2
9'.3
104.4
105,1
104*6
July
August
September
118.3
111.7
108.9
85.84
80.65
77.81
g>49>!4
13.'6
9^2
BO 105.2
104.5
104.2
October
November
December
1967
January
February
March
106.3
105.9 .
105.8
77.13
80.99
81.33;
4S»!.3
12.6
9!o
103.9
103.0
103.1
106.8
84.45
87.36
89.42
46! 5
ia!6
8*5
101.5
103.0
100 . 7
April
May
June
100.1
90.96
92.59
91.43
46! 5
ii.*9
&'.2
100.8
100,3
99.8
93.01
94.49
j£>95.8l
p4?!2
pll.8
April
May
June
:
105.2
102.5
99.6
99.8
July
August
September
October
November
December
98.3
98.1
97.8
97.7
3
99.1
3
95.66
93.55
(NA)
100.2
99.8
99.1
P99.3
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ®. Currenthigh values are indicated by(E>-; forseriesthatmove counter to movements in general business activity (series 3, 5, 14, 39, 40, 43, 45, 93, and 502), current low values are indicated by
ED>, Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. Series preceded by
an asterisk (*) are included in the 1966 NBER "short list" of indicators. The V indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
"New Features and Changes for This Issue," page v.
Average for November 20, 21, and 22.
3
Average for November 21, 22, and 24.
3
36
Table 2A
bed
BASIC DATA
NOVEMBER 1967
LATEST DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES-Continued
Leading Indicators—Continued
Major
Economic Process
Minor
Economic Prodis
Year
and
month
MONEY AND CREDIT
Credit Difficulties
Flows of Money and Creit
98, Change in
money supply
and time
deposits
(Ann. rate,
percent)
33. Net change *113. Net change 112. Change in
85, Change in
business loans
total U.S. money in morgage debt in consumer insupply
held by fin. inst. stallment debt
and life insur- 1
ance companies
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
(Ann. rate,
percent)
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
1965
January
February
March
+9.60
+9.60
+7.44
+2.28
+3.00
+2.28
April
May
June
+7.80
+5.28
+9.72
+3.72
+6.72
+20.56
+19.88
+22.94
July
August
September
+9.72
+10.80
+10.32
+5*16"
+5.88
+5.88
+20.35
+21.44
+22.01
+8.69
+7. 87
+8.23
October
November
December
1966
January
February
March
+13.32
+8.52
+9.60
+8.76
+3.60
+7,92
+20.93
+21.79
+21.98
+7.44
+8.39 !
+7.61
+6.48
+4.56
+9.12
+7.92
+2.88
+6.36
+23.81
r+21.85
r+22.87
April
May
June
+12.36
+4.80
+7. SO
+9.24
-2.16
+2.88
July
August
September
+3.72
+5.16
+3.36
-4.92
+1.44
+2.88
October
November
December
1967
January
February
March
... .
-0.72
-0.72
+5.52
-2.76
+7.68.
+14.16
+15.00
•
_
fi>
'
'
•-• !
+20.53'
+18.97,
+21.13
+7.38
+7,16
+7.70
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
110. Total private borrowing
(Ann. rate,
mil. do!.)
14, Current lia- 39, Delinquency
bilities of busirate, 30 days
ness failures2 and over, total
installment loans3
(Mil.dol.)
+9.90
+12.67
+11.34
62,100
84.54
107.57
146.29
1.77
79.51
139.09
135.66
1.71
+7.68
+10.38
+10.09
69,232
+14-12
+5.39
, +7.87
64,688
120.64
128.98
108.56
+7.45
+6.96
+5.30
67,836
85.67
66.65
128.06
+7.16
+6.46
+7.79
+14.10
+6.24
+8.76
66,924
111.67
94.59
98.73
r+20.77
r+17.76
r+15.22
+6.37
+5.92
+6.59
+8.50
+9.58
+17.70
g> 77,784
106.93
92.41
111.23
r+12.54'
r+12.68
r+11.40
+6.77
+7.22
+5.70
B> +21.11
+3.28
r+0.67
56,320
62.84
159.29
128.77
+4.56
+5.33
+3.85
r+5.54
+2.63
+0.14
50,524
+2.16
r+10.19
r+10.09
r+7 . 06
128.02
116.90
194.09
-0.72
+8.40
+11.16
r+11,05
+12.11
+11.95
+3.36
+2.59
+3.17
+6.01
+0.86
+6.83
57,508
118.61
111.23
108.87
+11.64
+15.80
+19.34
+2.56
+2.32
+3.50
+9.25
+1.63
+8.16
63,220
110.80
93.00
87.20
+12.95
+22.84
p+20.60
+2.70
+4.13
+3.41
+16.46
-9.44
-2.34
P59,104
(NA)
P+5.36
0.00
i
0.00
-2.76
&?> +12.48
+11.64 |
April
May
June
+5.64
+13.08
+14.28
July
August
September
+13.44
+12.96
r+6.12
+11.52
+8.04
r+0.72
October
November
December
p+9.72
p+6.72
f
f£> +8,94
+7.87 i
+7.14
(NA)
(Percent)
l.U
liifc
1.83
li<S5
1.73
1.78
li?6
1*76
1.79
1.75
1.82
1.90
1.72
64.15
98.29
93.10
lies
98.00
(NA)
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ©. Currenthigh values are indicated by[Ft>; forseriesthat move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3, 5, 14, 39, 40, 43, 45, 93, and 502), current low values are indicated by
B>. Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover, Series preceded by
an asterisk (*) are included in the 1966 NBER "short list" of indicators. The V indicates revised: "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
1
High value (24.02)- was reached in October 1963.
High value (52.86) was reached in August 1963.
3
^S^ value (1.57) was reached in May 1963
2
37
Table 2A
BASIC DATA
NOVEMBER 1967
LATEST DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES-Continued
bed
Roughly Coincident Indicators
Major
Economio Proem
Minor
Economic Process
Year
and
month
EMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT
511. Man-hours
301. Nonagricul- 46. Index of
tural job openhelp-wanted ad- in nonagricultural
establishments
vertising in
ings unfilled
newspapers
(Thous.)
Comprehensive Unemployment
CompriiiiDifve Employment
Jib Vacancies
(1957-59=100)
(Ann. rate, bil.
man-hours)
*41. Number of
employees in
nonagricultural
establishments
42. Total nonagricultural
employment,
labor force
survey
*43. Unemployment rate, total
45. Average
weekly insured
unemployment
rate, State1
programs
40. Unemployment rate,
married males
(Thous.)
(Thous.)
(Percent)
(Percent)
(Percent)
1965
January
February
March
268
267
270
137
145
148
123.04
123.75 ;
124.24
59,484
59,778
60,048
65,841
65,863
66,150
4.8
5.0
4.7
3.3
3.3
3.2
2.7
2.6
2.5
April
May
June
279
2B5
280
143
145
146
124.16
124.74
124.78
60,186
60,453
60,692
66,109
66,169
66,582
4.8
4.6
4.6
3.1
3.0
2.9
2.5
2.5
2.4
July
August
September
285
313
338
145
152
160
125.17
125.97
125.94
60,928
61,132
61,319
67,061
66,961
67,017
4.5
4-4
4.4
3.0
3.0
2.9
2.3
2.5
2.2
October...
November
December
1966
January
,
February
March
354
359
378
168
181
186
126.63
127.78
128. 51
61,553
61,933
62,319
67,197
67,683
67,950
4.3
4.1
4.0
2.7
2.6
2.6
2.1
2.0
1.9
392
403
428
123.70
129.80
130.62
62,503
62,889
63,296
68,266
68,186
68,153
3.9
3.7
3.8
2.6
2.6
2.3
1.9
1.9
1.9
April
May
June
430
425
421
189
185
184
130.22
130.23
131.54
63,427
63,616
64,069
68,343
68,351
68,749
3.7
3.9
3.9
2.1
2.1
2.2
1.8
420
426
0>438
186
189
189
131.40
132.09
131.86
64,180
64,345
64,394
68,920
69,206
69,309
3.9
3.8
3.7
2.4
2.4
2.1
2.0
2.0
1.9
October
November
December
1967
January
February
March
433
417
406
193
194
193
132.63
133.28
133.32
64,694
65,014
65,251
69,420
70,005
69,882
6>3!5
3.7
g> 2.0
2.1
2.3
1.9
1.7
1.7
393
374
364
189
190
184
134.24
133.68
133.77
65,564
65,692
65,749
70,240
70,247
69,892
3.7
3.7
3.6
2.3
2.4
2.6
1.7
B> 1.6
1.7
April
May
June
353
350
347
181
174
171
133.13
132.97
133.91
65,653
65,639
65,903
70,020
69,637
70,420
3.7
3.8
4.0
2.6
2.7
2.6
1.9
1.9
2,0
July
August
September .
337
352
378
169
180
185
133.68
R>rl34.87
r!34.59
65,939
|£>r66,190
C
^r66,047
70,633
70,726
|jp>70,949
3.9
3.8
4.1
2.8
2.6
2,4
1.8
2.0
1.8
October
November .
December
P360
p!87
P134.25
p66,l65
70,923
4.3
2.3
1.9
July
August
September
184
191
B> 201
i.a
1.9
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicatedby ® , Currenthigh values are indicated by [B>; for series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3, 5, 14, 39, 40, 43, 45, 93, and 502), current low values are indicated by
. Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. Series preceded by
an asterisk (*) are included in the 1966 NBER "short list" of indicators. Tho V indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
exclude Puerto Rico which is included in figures published by source agency.
38
Table 2A
bed
BASIC DATA
NOVEMBER 1967
LATEST DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES-Continued
iipr
PMCTDON,
Minssf
'Economic
49, Gross national product
in current dollars
Year
and
month
Gwp@lii«
Comprehensive ProductieiB
•
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
*50. Gross na- *47. Index of intional product dustrial producin 1958 dollars tion
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
CONSUMPTION, AND TIME
*52. Personal
income
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
(1957-59=100)
'
Eiipgliiw 6iisii|p8S®i m& TM©
53. Wages and
salaries in mining, manufacturing, and construction
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
*816. Manufacturing and
trade sales
(Mil. dol.)
57. Final sales *54. Sales of re(series 49 minus tail stores
series 21)
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
(Mil. dol.)
Revised1
1965
January
February
March
662!?
6oi*5 :
138.8
139.6
140.9 \
519.2
519.3
522.5
136.7
138.0
139.2
76,867
76,558
78,734
652.6
22,936
23,076
22,856
April
May
June
675 '.i
609.7
141-0 i
141. 8 ;
143.1
524.6
530.6;
535.1
138.2
139.9
140.9
78,330
78,643 '
78,805
666*. 5
22,849
23,317
23,322
July
August
September
690*0
620.7
144.3
144.9
;
144.1 !
538.1
540.3555.2
141.7
142.8
143.2
80,776
79,685
79,610
680.6
23,668
23,585
23,753
October
November
December
•
708 '.4
634^4 !
145.5
146.7
149.0
550.8
556.0
561.4
145.2
146.9
148.7
80,655
82,214
83,479
698[5
24,330
24,647
24,704
January
February
March
725! 9
645.4
.150.7
152.4
153.8
563.7
567.4
572.3
149.4
151.5
153.4
84,727
84,530
86,991
716'.6
25,081
25,049
25,536
April
May
June
736 ]?
649' 3
153.9
155.4
156.5
574.7
576.1
581.1
154.0
155.0
156.8
85,455
85,426
86,957
722*. 6
24,949
24,475
25,394
July
August
September
748-8
654! 8
157.2
157.8
158.1
584.7
589.1
594.1
156.9
158.5
159.5
86,678
86,995
86,775
737! 4
25,362
25,572
25,703
762.1
66l'i
159.4
159.1
§£> 159.5
597.5
602.1
•605.0
160.5
161.3
162.1
87,066
86,699
87,875
743^6
25,550
25,610
25,368
660*7
158,2
156.6
156.4
610.4
612.6
615.6
163.3
162.4
162.7
87,386
86,299
87,458
759»!2
25 , 687
25,470
25,739-
664. '.7'
156.5
. 155.6
155.6
616.5
=618.2
622.6
162.2
161,5
162.4
86,833
87,611
88,549
774.6
25,918
25,897
26,544
r88,991
627. 0!;
163.4
r631.6
165.2 R>r89,295
p88,592
r634.4 [£> rl65.5 ,
g>r787*.4
26,444
r26,422
g>r26,753
=
1966
October
November
December
1967
January
February
March
766 ',3
April
May
June
775.1
July
August
September
October
November
December
£>*79i*2;,
*
•
g> r672.0
156.6
158.2
; : ; 156.7
pi 56. 2
:
K>p636,0
pl65.0
(NA)
p26,152
NOTE" Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicatedby ® . Currenthlgh values are indicated byfB>' for series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3, 5, 14, 3s, 40, 43, 45, 93, and 502), current low values are indicated by
te> Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover.( Series* preceded by
an asterisk (*) are included in the 1966 NBER "short list" of indicators, The V indicates revised: "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and NA , not available.
1
See "New Features and Changes for This Issue," page v.
39
Table 2A
BASIC DATA
NOVEMBER 1967
LATEST DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES-Continued
bed
Roughly Coincident Indicators— Continued
Major
Economic Process
Minor
Economic Process
Year
and
month
FIXED CAPITAL
INVESTMENT
PRICES, COSTS, AND
PROFITS
Backlog of Investment
Commitments
Comprehensive Wholesale
Prices
96. Manufacturers' unfilled
orders, durable
goods industries
97. Backlog
of capital
appropriations, manufacturing
55. Index of
wholesale
prices, industrial commodities®
(Bil.dol.)
(Bil.dol.)
(1957-59=100) (1957-59=100)
1965
January
February
March
54.28
55.09
55.53
April
May
June
56.37
56.88
57.45
July
August
September
57.83
58.15
59.38
October
November
December
1966
January
February
March
60.66
61.44
62.53
April
May
June
68.25
69.61
71.31
July
August
September
72.65
73.29
75.59
October
November
December
1967
January
February
March
76.38
76.17
76.42
April
May
June
74.02
74-97
76.18
63.80
65.11
66.76
75.43
75.13
74.06
July
August
September
76.71
r76.8Q
r77.23
October
November
December
g>P77.58'
58: Index of
wholesale
prices, manufactured
goods ©
MONEY AND CREDIT
Bank
Reserves
Money Market Interest Rates
93, Free
reserves ©
114, Treasury
bill rate ©
116, Corporate bond
yields ©
(Mil.dol.)
(Percent)
(Percent)
115. Treasury 117. Municipal
bond yields© bond yields ©
(Percent)
(Percent)
15. *26
101.9
101.9
102.0
101.8
101.8
101.8
+106
+36
-75
3.83
3.93
3.94
4.45
4.45
4.49
4.14
4.16
4.15
3.06
3.09
3.18
16.'35
102.1
102.3
102.5
102.1
102.4
103.0
-105
-180
-182
3.93
3.90
3.81
4.48
4.52
4.57
4.15
4.14
4.14
3.15
3.17
3.24
17^30 •
102.5
102.7
102.7
103.1
103.2
103.2
-174
-134
-144
3.83
3.84
3.91
4.57
4.66
4.71
4.15
4.19
4.25
3.27
3.24
3.35
18.*38
102.8
103.2
103.2
103.4
103.7
104.1
-146
-83
-2
4.03
4.08
4.36
4.70
4.75
4.92
4.28
4.34
4.43
3.40
3.46
3.54
19 .*33
103.5
103.8
104.0
104.4
104.9
105.0
-44
-107
-246
4.60
4.67
4.63
4.93
5.09
5.33
4.43
4.61
4.63
3.52
3.64
3.72
2o'.56
104.3
104.7
104.9
105.1
105.5
105.6
-268
-352
-352
4.61
4.64
4.54
5.38
5.55
5.67
4.55
4.57
4.63
3.56
3.65
3.77
g> 20.77
105.2
105.2
105.2
106.0
106.4
106.4
-362
-390
-368
4.86
4.93
5.36
5.81
6.04
6.14
4.75
4.80
4.79
3.95
4.12
4.12
20.72
105.3
105.5
105.5
106.3
106.2
106.2
B> -431
-222
-165
B>5.39
5.34
5.01
6.04
6.11
5.98
4.70
4.74
4.65
3.94
3.86
3.86
r20.40
105.8
106.0
106.0
106.4
106.4
106.3
-16
-4
4236
4.76
4.55
4.29
5.53
5.35
5.55
4.40
4.47
4.45
3.54
3.52
3.55
r20.32
106. C
106.0
106.0
106.2
106.3
106.6
+175
+269
+297
3.85
3.64
3.48
5.59
5.90
6.06
4.51
4.76
4.86
3.6.0
3.89
3.96
p2o'.68
106.0
106.3
106.5
106.8
106.8
107.1
+272
+298
r+268
4.31
4.28
4.45
6.06
6.30
6.33
4.86
4.95
r4.99
4.02
3.99
4.12
U> 106.8
0> 10?.i
p+157
4.59
g>6.53
g>5.19
B>4.30
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ©. Current high values are indicated by[B>; forseriesthat move counter to movements in general business activity (series .3, 5, 14,39, 40, 43, 45, 93, and 502), current low values are indicated by
G£>. Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order, Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. Series preceded by
an asterisk (*) are included in the 1966 NBBR "short list" of indicators, The V indicates'revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
40
Table 2A
bed
BASIC DATA
NOVEMBER 1967
LATEST DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES-Continued
Lagging Indicators
Major
Economic Process
Minor
Economic Process
Year
and
month
EMPLOYMENT AND
UNEMPLOYMENT
FIXED CAPITAL INVESTMENT
INVENTORIES AND INVENTORY INVESTMENT
Long-Duration
Unemployment
Investment Expenditures
Inventories
*502. Unemployment rate,
persons unemployed 15
weeks and over
*61. Business expenditures on new plant and
equipment, total
505. Machinery and equipment sales and business
construction expenditures
*71. Manufacturing and
trade inventories, book
value
(Percent)
(Ann. rate, bil.dol.)
(Ann. rate, bil.dol.)
(Bil. dol.)
(Bil.dol.)
Revised1
1965
January
February
March
65. Manufacturers' inventories of finished goods,
book value
"
i.l
1.2
1.1
=
.
49^00
, ~ > -.
55.14
*. , := , . =• 55.23
,
^ ,
57.53
112.10
112.42
113.66
22.36
22.43
22.51
1.1
1.0
1.1
50,35
57.48
56,05
57.-90
114*39
115.09
115.74
22.29
22.36
22.34
July
August
September
0.9
1.0
1.0
52.75
60.00
58.19
60.16
116,70
117.71
117.91
22.55
22.53
22.61
October
November
December
0.9
0.9
0.9
55.35
61.10
62.19
118.43
119.28
120.90
22.66
22.86
23.14
January
February
March
0.8
0.8
0.8
58.00
65.13
63.91
66.58
121.57
122.54
123.63
23.45
23.62
23.81
April
May
June
0.8
0.7
0.6
6o!lO
65.20
65.30
66.18
124.70
126.18
127,58
23.84
24.07
24-14
July
August
September
0.6
0.6
0.6
61.25
68.41
68.19
68.68
128.71
130.04
130.84
24.50
24.67
24.88
October
November
December
1967
January
February
March
0.7
0.6
0.6
|jf> 62.80
69.13
68.12
68.56
132.39
133.86
135.55
25.08
25.54
26.00
0.6
0.6
0.6
61.65
!D> 70.44
69.50
68.85
136.59
136.78
137.09
26.40
26.67
26.83
April
May
June
0.6
61.50
66.79
67.56
68. 30
137.35
137.43
137.08
27.13
27.28
27.00
a62*.50
70.20
69.75
p69.22
137.40
r!38.19
27.20
r27.35
0>p27.40
April
May
June
,.
1966
*> 1:1
July
August
September
0.6
0.6
0,6
October
November
December
0.6
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
a62.*65
NOTE1 Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ®. Currenthigh values aremdicatedby[B>- for series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3, 5, 14, 39, 40, 43, 45, 93, and 502), current low values are indicated by
0>. Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order, Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. Series preceded by
an asterisk (*) are included in the 1966 NBER "short list" of indicators. The V indicates revised: "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA , not available.
"New Features and Changes for This Issue," page v.
41
Table 2A
BASIC DATA
NOVEMBER 1967
LATEST DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES-Continued
bed
Lagging Indicators—Continued
Major
Economic Process
Minor
Economic Process
Year
and
month
MONEY AND CREDIT
PRICES, COSTS, AND PROFITS
Unit Labor Costs
68. Labor cost (cur, . *62. Index of labor
dol.) per unit of gross cost per unit of output, manufacturing
product (1958 dol.),
nonfinancial corporations
(Dollars)
Interest Rates on Business Loans
and Mortgages
Outstanding Debt
(1957-59=100)
66. Consumer installment debt
*72. Commercial and
industrial loans outstanding, weekly reporting large commercial banks
(Mil. dol.)
(Mil. dot.)
(Percent)
118. Mortgage yields,
residential®
(Percent)
Revised*
1965
January
February
March
0.663
98. 8
98. S1
98. 7
60,069
60,666
61,308
44,175
45,205
46,170
April
May
June
0.665
98.6
98.7
98.6
62,053
62,709
63,304
46,793
47,497
48,764
July
August
September
0.665
98.6
99.0
99.7
64,028
64,684
65,370
49,129
49,840
50,478
0.663
100.2
100.1
99.7
65,990
66,689
67,323
50,946
51,346
52,174
99.3
99.8
99.9
67,920
68,458
69,107
53,255
53,747
54,522
October
November
December
1966
January
February
March
*67. Bank rates on
short-term business
loans, 35 cities© 1
0.670
April
May
June
0/679
100.7
100. -4
101.0
69,638
70,131
70,680
55,118
56,134
57,874
July
August
September
0.687
100.8
101.8
102.1
71,244
71 > 846
72,321
59,380
59,014
r59,38l
October
November
December
0/693
102.3
103.1
103.0
72,701
73,U5
73,466
59,879
60,010
59,732
0.73.1
104.8
105.3
105.6
73,746
73,962
74,226
0.713
105. A
106,0
106.8
g>p0.721
4.'97
5.45
5.45
5.45
4.*99
5.45
5.45
5.44
5.00
5.44
5.45
5.46
5*.27
5.49
5.51
5.62
5*55
5.70
(NA)
6.00
5.*82
(NA)
6.32
6.45
6^30
6.51
6.58
6.63
r^
(NA)
B>6.81
£> 6!31
6,77
60,754
60,525
61,167
6.*13
6.62
6.46
6.35
74,439
74,632
74,924
62,407
61,898
63,341
5^95
6.29
6.44
6.51
106.6
107.0
f£> 108.1
75,149
75,493
U>75,777
E> 64,352
62,944
63,309
5^94
6.53
6.60
6.63
P107.9
(NA)
p63,592
1967
January
February
March
April
May
June
.... < , , . .
July
August
September
October
November
December
6.65
NOTE; Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ®, Currenthigh values-areindicated by(j£>; for series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3, 5, 14, 39, 40, 43, 45, 93, and 502). current low values are indicated by
B>*. Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and usources are shown on the back cover. Series preceded by
an asterisk (*) are included in the 1966 NBER "short list" of indicators. The V indicates revised; "p", preliminary; e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
1
3
Prior to 1967 data are based on 19 cities and refer to the last month of the quarter.
See "New Features and Changes for This Issue," page v.
42
TableZA
bed
BASIC DATA
NOVEMBER 1967
LATEST DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES-Continued
Other Selected U.S. Series
Major
PRICES, COSTS,
Economic Process AND PROFITS
Comprehensive
Minor
Economic Process Retail Prices
81. Index of consumer prices ©
Year
and
month
(1957-59 = 100)
FOREIGN TRADE AND PAYMENTS
Foreign Trade and Payments
89. Excess of receipts (+) or
payments (-) in U.S. balance
of payments
b. Official
a. Liquidity
settlements
balance basis
basis
(Mil.dol.)
(Mil. dol.)
1965
January
February
March
108.9
108.9
109.0
-818
April
May
June
109.3
109.6
110.1
-i-199
July
August
September
110.2
110.0
110.2
88. Merchandise
trade balance
(series 86 minus
series 87)
86. Exports, excluding military
aid shipments,
total
(Mil.dol.)
(Mil.dol.)
228
235
242
1,199.0
1,606.0
1,860.9
720
718
899
238
241
238
1,811.3
1,796.6
1,848.2
2,299.5
2,328.9
2,291.3
829
785
722
241
245
231
1,741.8
1,825.3
1,858.0
+464.5
+437.5
+451.1
2,349.3
2,378.1
2,362.2
705
891
984
228
234
233
1,884.8
1,940.6
1,911.1
+324.0
+366.1
+501.2
2,271.6
2,371.2
2,568.9
852
849
237
201
227
1,947.6
2,005.1
?,067.7
749
976
1,078
195
217
217
2,108.9
2,062,5
2,135.0
805
826
1,059
201
199
200
2,204.7
2,112.6
2,299.8
865
785
-1,200
240
235
225
2,261.0
2,186.3
2,231.2
891
833
905
234
196
252
2,295.6
2,204.1
2,184.7
772
1,029
• 1,043
215
220
218
2,224.0
2,118.6
2,228.2
875
841
p9H
219
r230
p2l6
2,235.4
2,114.1
2,214.9
(HA)
2,216.4 ;
+28.5
+16.7
+878.0
1,227.5
1,622.7
2,738.9
+239
+595.0
+502.7
+386.5
2,406.3
* 2,299.3
2,234.7
-457
+207
+557.7
+503.6
+433.3
,,-259 ;
-916
111.0
111.6
112.0
-651
-443
112.5
112.6
112.9
-122
113.3
113.8
1H.1
-165
+861
+250.7
+339.0
+234.4
October
November
December
1967
January.
February
March
114.5
114.6
114.7
^419
Il8
+319.7
+299.8
+184.6
IK. 7
114.8
115.0
r-530
r-1,813
+324.6
+396. 8
+384.3
2, 620.2
2,600.9
2,569.0
April
May
June
115.3
115.6
116.0
r-550
r-830
+435.3
+426.1
+355.2
2,659.3
2,544.7
2,583.4'
July
August
September
116.5
116.9
117.1
p-670
p+462
+352.0
+446.6
+416.7
2,587.4
2,560.7
2,631.6
October
November
December
117.5
+166.6
2,383.0
I
October
November
December
1966
January
February
March
110.4110.6
111.0
April
May
June
!
July
August
September
i
;
-834
-175
861. Manufactur- 862. Index of
87. General imers* new orders
export orders, ports, total
for export, durable nonelectrical
goods except mo- machinery
tor vehicles and
parts ®
(Mil.dol.)
(1957-59=100)
(Mil.doi.)
;
603
729
:
694
•
::
2,358.8
+249.9
-H348.3
+354.4
2,410.3:::
2,429.4
2,455,4:
2,451.6
2,534.2
:
"
•2,580.7
2,486.1
2,415. 8 ; -=•
;
;
904
v (NA)
....
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain no seasonal movement: Unadjusted series are indicated by ® . Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. The "f" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; V, anticipated; and "NA", not available.
43
Table 2A
BASIC DATA
NOVEMBER
1967
LATEST DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES-Continued
bed
Other Selected U.S. Series—Continued
Major
Economic Process
Minor
Economic Process
Year
and
month
1965
January
February
March
FEDERAL GOVERNMENT ACTIVITIES
Federal Government Activities
95. Federal
84. Federal
surplus (+)
cash surplus (+1
ordeficit(-), or deficit (-)1
national income and product account
(Ann. rate,
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
bil.dol.)
101. National 91. Defense
83. Federal 82. Federal
cash receipts cash payments defense pur- Department obchases, cur- ligations, total
from1 the pub- to the public
rent dollars
lic
(Ann, rate,
bil.rtol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
(Mil.dol.)
99. New
90. Defense
Department ob- orders, defense
ligations,
products indus.
procurement
(Mil.dol.)
(Bil.dol.)
92. Military
prime contract
awards to
U.S. business
firms and
institutions
(Mil.dol.)
+4'. 5
+o'.6
12CL 3
119 '.7
4^4
4,278
3,839
4,624
1,005
700
1,355
2.37
2.44
2.46
2,097
1,846
2,451
April
May
June
-3.*9
125^3
12<?!2
49.2
4,593
4,630
4,520
1,444
1,402
1,254
3.24
2.46
2.58
2,843
+4.9
July
August
September
-2 !9
124-6
4,258
5,223
5,276
1,128
1,741
1,732
2.62
2.81
3,45
2,313
-3.2
October
November
December
-b',4
1966
January
February
March
+2*. 2
-s!6
-12. 8
127 [5
50'. 3
2,150;
2,390>
2,775
2,419
126.9 i
134^9
52*4
4,962
4,896
5,669
1,733
1,212
1,882
3.28
2.57
2.53
2,790
2,995
2,988
133^6 j
146.4
55*1
5,100
5,179
5,879
1,639
1,736
1,904
3.40
3.04
3.38
2,940
2,850
6,444
5,447
7,084
2,109
1,620
2,415
3.30
2.91
3.68
3,359
2,913
April
May
June
+ 3.2
July
August
September
-0.7
-9.9
149.0
158.9
63.0
4,998
7,215
6,579
1,753
2,251
1,866
3.50
3.16
4.67
4,016
3,170
October
November
December
-3.3
-0,9
153'. 5
154.4
65.6
6,059
5,989
6,023
1,931
1,723
1,937
3.31
2.73
3.36
3,396
3,252
3,501
-11 .'9
+1.7
156.7
155.0
7o'/2
6,518
6,595
6,343
2,296
2,140
1,903
2.85
3.33
3.24
3,338
3,849
2,984
+i".6
154.1
152 '.5
72! 5
6,211
7,896
7,170
1,715
2,608
2,330
3.27
3.86
4.20
2,920
-14*7
5,357
6,953
7,814
1,435
1,907
3,221
3.64
r2.84
r3.55
3,6lo'
r3,686
P3,665
(NA)
(NA)
P3.49
(NA)
1967
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August.
September
October
November
December
P-i3.'i
+5.6
-19.5
148.4
154^6
14X4
173. *5
58.4
r73.*3
3,061
3,724
3,530
4,121
3,626
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ® . Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. The V indicates revised; V preliminary; V, estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
Beginning with 2d quarter 1966, data reflect graduated withholding of personal income taxes and change in schedule for depositing withheld and OASI taxes.
44
Table 2A
bed
BASIC DATA
NOVEMBER
1967
LATEST DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES-Continued
U.S. Series Under Consideration
Major
Economic Process
Minor
Economic Process
UNCLASSIFIEt) INDICATORS
Unclassifiec 1 .Indicators
850. Ratio,
output to
capacity
manufacturing
Year
and
month
851. Ratio,
nventoriesto
sales, manufacturing and
trade
(Ratio)
(Percent)
1965
January
February
March
852. Ratio,
unfilled orders
to shipments, 1
manufacturers
durable goods
(1957-59:100)
Revised1
(Ratio)
i.46:
853. Ratio,
production of
business
equipment to
consumer goods
854. Ratio,
personal saving
to disposable
personal income
855. Ratio,
non agricultural
job openings
unfilled to
persons
unemployed
(Ratio)
(Ratio)
0.078
0.084
0.081
112.4
112.6
112.4
7.6
*..
0.064
0.085
0.096
0.104
112.8
112.7
113.2
7.2
...
115.4
116.4
117.3
0.060
...
0.111
0.118
0.126
113.6
113.5
113.0
7.6
. *.
3.21
3.28
3.25
117.9
119.1
119.7
0.053
* **
0,133
0.145
0.150
113.4
113.7
113.2
7.5
.. .
1.46
1.48
1.47
3.37
3.40
3.50
119.8
121.5
123.2
0.057
0.154
0.147
0.143
113.5
113.7
113.7
90.6
1.48
1.49
1.51
3.49
3.54
3.64
124.8
125.9
126.4
0.057
0.144
0.145
0.154
113.8
113.8
114.3
6.8
...
89.8
1.52
1.54
1.54
3.67
3.67
3.62
125.4
125.9
126.1
0.066
. *.
0.150
0.154
0.141
114.1
114.0
113.9
6.9
,. .
pSV.O
1.56
1.58
1.57
3.64
3.68
3.58
126.3
127.7
125.8
0.073
.. .
0.139
0.130
0.131
114.3
115.1
114.8
6.5
g
1.58
1.57
1.55
3.73- s
3.69
3.74;
124.7
124.7
123.4
0.067
0.125
0.121
0.112
114.9
114.9
115.2
6.4
rl.54
rl.55
pi. 56
3.71
r3.63
r3.82
122.9
121.5
121.9
rO.070
0.112
0.118
0.119
115.2
115.6
115.5
(NA)
(NA)
p3.88
p!20.4
pO.107
P115.3
107*1
108.0
107.4
0.054
1,46
1.46
1.47
3.04
3.13
3.15
109.2
110.8
111.0
0.052
1.44
1.48
1.48
3.02
3.12
3.23
112.4
88.5
88.6
1.47
1.45
1.45
3.28
3.23
3.16
90.6
1.43
1.45
1.42
Apri 1
May
June
90.9
July
August
September
July
August
September
October
November
December
1966
January
February
March
October
.November
December
1967
January
February
March
88.4
April
May
June
pg/
July
August
September
— C^Q
October
November
December
(Percent)
112.4
3*01
3.07
2.98
88.5
!
, (1957-5^100)
Revised1
0.076
0.072
0.077
1.47
1.44
April
May
June
856. Ratio,
857. Vacancy
average earnings) rate in total
rental housing
of production
workers in
1
manufacturing to
consumer prices
C>
poj.o
112.5
112.5
...
...
...
111.7
112.6
7.7
...
6.9
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ® . Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. The V indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
'•See "New Features and Changes for This Issue," page v.
45
Table 2B
BASIC DATA
NOVEMBER 1967
bed
LATEST DATA FOR INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS
INDUSTRIAL PIODUCT10N INDEXES
' Minor
Economic
Year
and
month
Industrial Production Intes
47, United
States, index
of industrial
production
(1957-59=100)
1965
122. United
123. Canada,
index of indus- Kingdom, index
trial production of industrial
production
(1957-59 = 100)
Revised2
121. OECD, 1
126, France,
European coun- index of industries, index of trial production
industrial production
(1957-59=100) (1957-59=100) (1957-59=100)
Revised
3
Revised3
Revised 2 '
125. West Ger- 128, Japan, in- 127, Italy, index
many, index of dex of industrial of industrial proindustrial pro- production
duction
duction
(1957-59=100) (1957-59=100)
Revised9
(1957-59=100)
Revised2
January
February
March
139
140
141
147
147
150
131
129
127
146
146
144
138
139
140
156
154
152
r241
r241
244
167
169
166
April
May
June
141
142
143
149
150
150
128
129
128
146
147
147
141
141
142
154
155
155
241
238
244
169
175
176
July
August
September
144
145
144
152
154
155
129
128
128
147
147
148
143
143
144
153
155
156
243
2,40
247
178
175
178
October
November
December
1966
January
February
March
146
147
149
156
158
160
130
130
131
150
150
151
146
147
150
157
156
155
241
244
246
178
1«3
182
151
152
154
161
163
163
132
131
134
152
152
155
147
150
152
158
157
161
252
251
257
186
187
190
April
May
June
154
155
156
164
163
163
1,32
130
130
153
153
154
151
151
154
160
159
161
261
265
267
187
196
195
July
August
September
157
158
158
163
164
166
132
131
130
154
153
154
155
155
156
158
154
156
273
277
279
194
195
202
October
November
December
1967
January
159
159
160
167
168
167
128
127
129
153
153
154
155
156
156
154
154
153
285
291
299
200
201
204
158
157
156
166
166
166
129
129
129
153
153
154
156
154
156
151
150
152
301
300
309
205
209
20B
April
May
June
July
August
September
156
156
156
168
167
168
130
128
129
154
153
154
153
152
156
150
151
151
312
315
323
2.1.0
212
212
157
158
157
169
p!70
(NA)
130
p!30
(NA)
154
P153
(NA)
156
156
pi 59
156
153
p!52
323
p208
r326
P333
October
November
December
p!56
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
February
March
\
(NA)
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain na seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ® . Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order, Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. The V indicates revised; "p", preliminary; V, estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
•"•Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development.
3
See "New Features and Changes for This Issue," page v.
46
Table 2B
bed
NOVEMBER
BASIC DATA
1967
LATEST DATA FOR INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS-Continued
Rfepr
Eewwfc Praesss ;
Minr
Ee(Q)Mmio
Year
and
month
.
CONS mm
PUCE i« XES
wrp(p
COTS turner Price limde XiS
81. United States,
index of consumer
prices ®
133. Canada,
index of consumer prices®
132. United Kingdom, index of
consumer prices®
(1957-59-100)
(1957-59 = 100)
(1957-59 = 100)
136. France,
135. West Ger138. Japan, index
many, index of
of consumer
index of consumer prices© consumer prices© prices ®
137. Italy, index
of consumer
prices©
(1957-59=100)
(1957-59 = 100)
119
119
IH
119
134
134
115
115
116
139
139
141
129
129
130
134
135
137
116
117
118
143
142
141
130
130
130
(1957-59-100)
(1957-59 - 100)
1965
January.
February..
March
109
109 '
109
110
110
110
April
May . . .
June
109 ,
110
110
111
112
122
122
122
July
August
September
110
110
110
112
112
112
122
123
123
136
135
136
119
118
118
141
141
143
331
131
132
October
November
December
1966
January
February
March
110
111
111
112
113
113
123
123
124.
136
136
137
118
119
120
145
144
145
132
132
133
111
113
112
112
114.
114-
124,
124
125
137
137
138
120
121
121
146
147
148
333
133
133
112
113
113
115
115
116
126
127
127
136
139
138
122
122
122
150
148
149
133
134
134
July
August
September
113
1H
1U
116
116
117-
127
127
127
139
139
139
122
122
122
149
148
150
134
134
134
October .
November
December
1967
January
February
March
114115
115
117
117
117
128
128
129
140
140
140
122
122
123
151
150
151
134
135
136
115
115
115
117
117
118
129
129
129
141
141
142
T?3
123
1 38
123
~] S3
154
154
April
May .
June
115
116
116
119
119
120
130
130
130
142
142
142
124
124
124
154
153
152
138
138
139
July
August
September
116
117
117
121
121
121
130
130
129
142
145
p!43
124
123
pi 23
152
153
156
pl4.0
October
November
December
118
p!21
pl29
(NA)
(NA)
P159
(NA)
April
May
June... .
v
111
1 QO
138
139
139
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by®. Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. The V indicates revised; "p", preliminary; V, estimated;
"a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
47
Table 2B
BASIC DATA
NOVEMBER 1967
bed
LATEST DATA FOR INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS-Continued
Major
Economic Process
Minor
Economic
Year
and
month
ST OCK PRICE INDEXIIS
§
St ock Price
19. United States,
index of stock
prices, 500 common stocks ®
143. Canada,
index of stock
prices ®
142. United Kingdom, index of
stock prices ®
146, France, index
of stock prices®
145. West Germany, index of
stock prices ®
148. Japan, index
of stock prices®
147. Italy, index
of stock prices®
(1957*59 = 100)
(1957-59 = 100)
(1957-59 - 100)
(1957-59 = 100)
(1957-59 = 100)
(1957-59 = 100)
(1957-59 = 100)
1965
January
February
March
175
176
176
185
186
190
165
169
163
125
121
126
203
198
193
197
193
183
111
119
133
April
May
June
178
181
172
192
195
184
163
166
159
124
123
117
192
187
183
178
178
170
131
129
122
July
August
September
172
175
181
175
180
185
154
156
160
113
118
117
181
184
184
163
181
195
119
October
November
December
1966
January. . ,,
February
March
185
387
186
186
188
183
169
174
113
170
112
117
178
174
171
191
204
213
123
123
133
189
188
180
192
191
186
173
178
174
127
123
118
177
180
178
223
230
241
147
153
156
April
May
June
186
176
174
190
182
182
173
179
181
114
110
110
175
168
159
240
243
236
144
143
July
August
September
174
163
158
180
171
162
173
154
152
108
108
102
149
150
154
231
230
226
146
147
October
November
December
156
164
165
158
162
166
150
147
151
101
107
103
151
147
148
224
221
218
149
147
144
1967
January
February
March
171
177
181
175
180
182
157
156
159
99
103
98
148
156
159
223
229
228
142
141
April
May
June
184
188
185
185
186
186
167
171
172
96
99
98
158
155
154
223
231
1 99
1 "3?
211
1 10
July
August
September
189
192
194
189
194
198
176
177
187
Cry
?4
QQ
1
e;A
Ipo
1 T^
Tin
oqi
<cjl
01 ^
<clp
npiQ
"} OQ
129
1 <a q
l^J
1 *3Q
1^7
October
November
December
202
196
p205
nlT 1
Til
p!90
pill
nlQ?
194
pi 96
i rto
S^
01 q
p212
125
124
143
U'i
127
TlT
/ )
n1?,1
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by®. Series numbers are for identification only anddonot reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. The V indicates revised; V, preliminary; V, estimated;
"a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
48
Section TWO
ANALYTICAL
MEASURES
charts and tables
DIFFUSION INDEXES BASED ON HUNDREDS OF COMPONENTS
Average \vorJcweek-27 industries
New orders—36 industries
Capital appropriations—17 industries
Profits—1,000 corporations
Stock prices—77 industries
Industrial materials prices—7 3 materials
State unemployment claims—47 areas
Nonagricultural employment—30 industries
Production—24 industries
Wholesale prices—22 industries
Retail sales—23 types of stores
Net sales—800 companies
New orders—400 companies
Carloadings—19 commodity groups
Plant and equipment expenditures—18 industries
BASIC DATA AND DIRECTIONS OF CHANGE FOR COMPONENTS OF DIFFUSION INDEXES
bed
Chart 2
NOVEMBER
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
1967
DIFFUSION INDEXES FROM 1948 to PRESENT
Leading Indexes
(Nov.) (Oct.)
P I
'July. (Apr.)
P T
(Aug.]
P
T
(May) (Feb.)
P T
01. Avg. workweek, prod, wkrs., mfg.-21 indus.
D6. New orders, dur, goods indus.-36 indus.
D11. Newly approved capital appropriations-17 indus., NICB (3-Q span— 1-Q span*
D34. Profits, FNCB of NY, percent reporting higher profits-afaout 1,000 mfg. corp. (1-Q span)
019, Stock prices, 500 common stocks- 77 indus.
023. Industrial materials prices-13 indus. mtls.
05. Initial claims, State unempl. insur.-47 areas (inverted)
ieO-
01948
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
@3
€5
©6
67
1968
See 'How to iead Charts 1 and 2,' page 4. Current data for these series are shown on pages §4 and 55.
51
Chart 2
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
NOVEMBER
1967
bed
DIFFUSION INDEXES FROM 1948 to PRESENT-Continued
Roughly Coincident Indexes
(Nov.) (Oct.)
P
T
(July) (Apr.)
P T
{July) (Aug.)
P
T
(May) (Feb.;
P T
Percent
041, Employees in nonagri. establtshments-30 indus. (6-mo. span— 1-mo. span--—
047. Industrial prorfuctton-24 Indus. (6-mo. span— 1-mo. span-—
too-
Oj
Oil Wliolesaie prices, mfrd. goods-22 Indus. (6-mo. span— 1-mo. span—-
Si H
054. Sates of retail stores-23 types of stores |9-mo. span— 1-mo. span
il
SI
§3
54
55
1 m$ 2,' pp4. twmt dlstg for ttese
Digitized for52
FRASER
56
S7
S8
5@
arg shewn e:f8 page §8.
iO
61
62
63
)
64
S5
66
67
1968
bed
Chart 2
NOVEMBER
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
1967
DIFFUSION INDEXES FROM 1948 to PRESENT-Continued
(Nov.) (Qet.)
P
T
P
T
Actual
/»
Anticipated
035. Net sales, all mfrs.-8QQ companies (4-Q span)
D36. New orders, dur. goods mfrs,-400 companies (4-Q span)
D48. Change in total cartoadings (millions of cars--4-Q span)
D48. Change in total carloadings
Tmillions of cars -4-Q span)
061. New plant and equipment expend,-18 Indus. (1-Q span]
Data are centered within spans. Latest data are as follows:
Series number and
date of survey
Actual
D35, D36 (September W67)
D48 (September 1967)
D61 (August 1967)
1948
49
50
51
§2
S3
54
55
56
Anticipated
3d Q 1966-3d Q 1967
4th Q1965-4thQ 1966
fst Q 1967-2d Q 1967
57
58
59
IstQ 1967-lstQ1968
4th Q1966-4thQ 1967
3d Q 1967-4th Q 1967
60
61
62
67
1968
Sea 'How to Read Charts 1 and 2,' page.4. Cyrrgrst data for tfiasa series ars. sliown cm page 57.
53
Table 3
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
NOVEMBER 1967
bed
LATEST DATA FOR DIFFUSION INDEXES
Leading Indexes
Year
and
month
Dl. Average workweek, manufacturing
(21 industries)
]-month span
9-month span
D6. Value of manufacturers' new orders,
durable goods industries (36 industries)
1-month span
9-month span
Dll. Newly approved capital appropriations,
NICB (17 industries)
1-quarter span
3-quarter span
1965
January
February
March... .
50.0
66.7
71.4
83.3
78.6
81.0
48.6
38.9
63.9
77.8
75.0
77.8
88
82
April
May
June
14.3
S3. 3
42.9
73.8
47.6
61.9
50.0
44.4
58.3
68.1
66.7
68.1
71
82
July
August
September
61.9
47.6
33.3
69.0
64.3
85.7
59.7
41.7
61.1
91.7
83.3
80.6
65
82
October
November
December
1966
January , .
February
March
71.4
73.3
66.7
95.2
90.5
85.7
61.1
55.6
76.^
81.9
86.1
83.3
59
76
50.0
81.0
42.9
81.0
85.7
38.1
30.6
50.0
8^.7
75.0
75.0
66.7
65
76
April
May
June
35.7
54.3
33.3
50.0
45.2
40.5
41.7
50.0
51.4
72.2
58.3
59.7
62
47
July
August
September
19.0
66.7
64.3
23.8
0.0
9.5
50.0
59.7
37.5
55.6
44.4
41.7
29
47
October
November
December
35.7
38.1
9.5
9.5
14.3
14.3
50.0
44.4
55.6
36.1
31.9
27.8
59
35
January
February
March.
69.0
4.8
61.9
9.5
9.5
9.5
31.9
38.9
55.6
38.9
53
47
April
May
June
47.6
26.2
52.4
r!9.0
r42.9
P35.7
50.0
58.3
61.1
r53
P47
1967
July
August
September
64.3
73.8
r69.0
52.8
r65.3
r40.3
October
November
December
p26.2
^50.0
a. 7
45. &
r66.7
r50.0
"P57.4
P 53
NOTE: Figures are the percent of series components rising and are centered within spans: 1-month indexes are placed on latest month and 9-month indexes are placed
on the 6th month of span; 1-quarter indexes are placed on the 1st month of the 2d quarter and 3-quarter indexes are placed on the 1st month of the 3d quarter. Seasonally adjusted components are used. Table 4 identifies the components for most of the indexes shown. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; and "NA", not available.
•'•Based on 34 industries.
54
bed
Table 3
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
NOVEMBER 1967
LATEST DATA FOR DIFFUSION INDEXES—Continued
Leading Indexes-Continued
D34. Profits, manufacturing, FNCB
019. Index of stock prices, 500 common D23. Index of industrial materials prices
(about 1,000 corpora(13 industrial materials]
stocks (77 industries)®1
tions)
Year
and
month
1-quarter span
1965
January
February
March..
"'
> :• ="
'
1-month span
57
;
i
April
May
June
56
July
August
September
,5V
October
November
December
1966
January
February
March."
9-month span
92.2
81.8
64.3
:
70.8
66.9
•
,;
0.0,
•::=-
80.5
58.4
51V9
58,4
1-month span
,:•
67,5
1-month span
9-month span
;::
:
53. 8
30.8
69.2
69.2
76.9
61.5
24.5
57.4
66.0
78.7
78.7
59.6
- •
.•-.
76. 9 :
53.8
69.2
53.8
53.8
61.7
59.6
51.1
66.0
61.7
78.7
72.7
,.
9-month span
D5. initial claims for unemployment insurance, State programs,
week including the 12th (47 areas)
;,:,;
,
,57.7
24.7 ;
79.9
81.2
61.0
59.1
63.6
46.2
42.3
50.0
46.2
46.2
46.2
34.0
38.3
78.7
80.9
87.2
70.2
60
66.9
^70.1
57.1
60.4
67.5
70.1
15.4
34.6
61.5
46.2
38.5
53.8
57.4
44.7
51.1
62.8
91.5
95.7
59
74.0
48. 7
14.3
51.9
43.5
37.7
61.5
76.9
46.2
53.8
61.5
61.5
3*5.3
44.7
83,0
91.5
74.5
44.7
April ,
May
June
59
63.6
3.9
23.4
22.1
11.7
6.5
30.8
42.3:
46.2
, 53.8
30.8
15.4
53.2
45.7
57.4
68.1
76.6
7B.7
July
August
September
50
38.3
6.5
3.9
9.7
22.1
20.1
61.5
26.9
0.0
7.7
7.7
7.7
17.0
72.3
80.9
80.9
34.0
34.0
October
November
December
54
25.3
88.3
59.7:
47.4
58.4
66.2
19. 2 ;
30.8
57,7,
0.0
0.0
0,0
36.2
46.8
27.7
23.4
17.0
46.8
48
90.9
92.2
:6i.o
85.7
90.3
97.4
46.2
53.8
23.1
0,0
15,4
26.9
55.3
17.0
46.8
27.7
8.5
8.5
76.0
74.0
: 51-3:
93.4
92.1
86.2
23.1
61.5
69.2
30.8
23.1
23.1
55.3
54.3
55'. 3
31.9
44.7
29.8
'
1967
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August. , ,
September
October
November
December
45
,53
;
81.6
77.6
57.2
32.2
30.8
53.8;
19.2
2
46.2
46.2
2
30.8
34.0
72.3
60.6
38.3
NOTE: Figures are the percent of series components rising and are centered within spans: 1-month indexes are placed on latest month and 9-month indexes are placed
on the 6th month of span; 1-quarter indexes are placed on the 1st month of the 2nd quarter. Seasonally adjusted components are used except in index D19 which requires no
adjustment and index D34 which is adjusted only for the index. Table 4'identifies the components for most of the indexes shown. The *r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary;
and "NA", not available. Unadjusted series are indicated bv (a),
1
Based on 77 components through June 1967 and on 76 components thereafter.
Average for November 20, 21, and 22.
s
55
Table 3
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
NOVEMBER
1967
bed
LATEST DATA FOR DIFFUSION INDEXES—Continued
Roughly Coincident Indexes
Year
and
month
D41. Number of employees in
nonagricultura! establishments
(30 industries)
1-month span
6-month span
1965
D47. Index of industrial production
(24 industries)
1-month span
6-month span
Revised1
Revised1
D58. Index of wholesale prices
(22 manufacturing industries)®
1-month span
6-month span
054. Sales of retail stores
(23 types of stores)
1-month span
9-month span
January
February
March
73.3
78.3
83.3
81.7
75.0
78.3
79.2
70.8
77.1
83.3
85.4
87.5
72.7
52.3
65.9
81.8
86.4
81.8
63.0
65.2
30.4
80.4
87.0
87.0
April
May
June
61.7
66.7
81.7
88.3
90.0
86.7
56.2
70.8
91.7
83.3
83.3
79.2
72.7
75.0
61.4
79.5
70.5
63.6
54.3
87.0
43.5
73.9
87.0
87.0
July
August
September
88.3
73.3
73.3
90.0
90.0
90.0
81.2
75.0
54.2
87.5
91.7
87.5
50.0
56.8
61.4
65.9
65.9
77.3
80,4
47.8
73.9
95.7
91.3
95.7
October
November
December
1966
January
February
March
88.3
91.7
86.7
93.3
88.3
95.0
79.2
83.3
87.5
91.7
93.8
100.0
70.5
70.5
70.5
88.6
90.9
90.9
78.3
78.3
37.0
95.7
95.7
91.3
81.7
88.3
95.0
95.0
91.7
83.3
70.8
70.8
91.7
95,8
91.7
79.2
79.5
75.0
72.7
88.6
95.5
93.2
76.1
65.2
60.9
82.6
84.8
78.3
April
May
June
80.0
75.0
93.3
81. 7
81.7
73.3
72.9
62.5
75.0
75.0
79.2
66.7
70.5
86.4
75.0
95.5
95.5
86.4
43.5
30. 4
95.7
78.3
82.6
78.3
July
August
September
56.7
78.3
35.0
76.7
73.3
73.3
50.0
75.0
43.8
75.0
66.7
66.7
72.7
54.5
47.7
72.7
72.7
63.6
47.8
47.8
60.9
76.1
65.2
82.6
October
November
December
1967
81.7
76.7
70.0
85.0
65.0
65.0
72.9
56.2
50.0
66.7
45.8
33.3
63.6
63.6
54.5
63.6
72.7
43.5
69.6
41.3
87.0
78.3
82.6
January
February
March
71.7
43.3
43.3
a. 7
55.0
43.3
25.0
25.0
39.6
41.7,
29.2
25.0
77.3
72.7
56.8
63.6
68.2
65.9
S7.0
39.1
43.5
69.6
91.3
95.7
April
May
June
40.0
38.3
41.7
36.7
43.8
25.0
56.2
33.3
43.8
50.0
47.7
56.8
50,0
63.6
63.6
63.6
60.9
34.8
B2.6
r87.0
r87.0
p52.2
P46.7
58.3
66.7
50.0
p50.0
63.6
65.9
75.0
72.7
43.5
r60.9
r?1.7
a. 7
71.7
July
August
September
53.3
r58.3
r35.0
October
November
December
p70.0
p43.8
72.7
72.
r
(
P32.6
NOTE: Figures are the percent of series components rising and are centered within spans: 1-month indexes are placed on latest month, 6-month indexes are placed on the
4th month, and 9-month indexes are placed on the 6th month of span. Seasonally adjusted components are used except in index D58 which requires no adjustment, Table 4
identifies the components for the indexes shown. The V indicates revised; "p", preliminary; and "NA", not available. Unadjusted series are indicated by ©.
1
See "New Features and Changes for This Issue," page v.
56
Table 3
bed
NOVEMBER
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
1967
LATEST DATA FOR DIFFUSION INDEXES—Continued
Actual and Anticipated Indexes
Year
and
month
D35. Net.sales, manufactures
(800 companies)®
[)36. New orders, durable manufactures (400 companies) @
D48, Freight carloadings (19 manufactured
commodity groups)®
061. New plant and equipment
expenditures (18 industries)
4-quarter span
4-quarter span
4-quarter span
1-quarter span
Anticipated
Actual
1965
January
February
March
Anticipated
Actual
Actual
Anticipated
Change in
total (000)
!
;
90
*88
*90
*ai
63^2
B^.2
+25
*88
*88
*88
*84
63^2
si! 2
4-20
July
August
September
*88
*90
*89
*87
73^7
73.7
+28
October
November
December
*89
'91
*88
'90
73.. 7
s
89^5
+18
'87
91
*85
*89
5?'.9
S^.2
+2!
*84
*88
*82
*83
52^6
7^9
'+1
(NA)
78.9
-50
52.*6
-91
78^9
r-131
April
May
June
Actual
•
Anticipated
56.2
65.6
75.0
68.8
83.3
65.6
75.0
8^.4
83.3
62.5
83.3
71.9
55.6
37,5
75.0
65.6
55.6
50.0
30.6
41.7
(NA)
44.4
;
1966
January
February
March
April
May..June
;
July
August
September
1
!
*72
*34
Ts
*82
October
November
December
i
I
I
72
'34
'67
*80
70
*82
*65
*78
1967
January
February
March
1
l
!
April
May
June
i
i
July
August
September
i
I
\
October
November
December
'81
*78
*82
'so
.
73!?
P44.4
indexes are.
NOTE: Figures are the percent of series components rising and are centered within spans: 4-quarter indexes are centered in the middle quarter; l-quarjer
fT
placed in the 1st month of the 2d quarter. Seasonally adjusted components are used for series D61. the (< r' ' indicates revised; "p", preliminary; and "NA , not available.
Unadjusted series are indicated by © .
57
Table 4
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
bed
NOVEMBER 1967
SELECTED DIFFUSION INDEXES AND COMPONENTS
Basic Data and Direction of Change
1967
Diffusion index components
April
March
August1*
July
June
May
October P
September
Dl. AVERAGE WORKWEEK OF PRODUCTION WORKERS, MANUFACTURING L
(Average weekly hours)
4-
All manufacturing industries
Durable goods industries:
Ordnance and accessories
Lumber and wood products
Furniture and fixtures
Stone, clay and glass products
Primary metal industries
Fabricated metal products
Machinery except electrical
Electrical machinery
Transportation equipment
Instruments and related products
Miscellaneous manufacturing industries
+
4o
o
+
40.5
40.3
(62)
(48)
(26)
41.9
40.7
40.2
41.5
40.8
41.5
41.6
40.6
40.3
41.3
40.2
41.5
42.9
40.0
40.7
4,
o
4+
Nondurable goods industries:
Food and kindred products
Tobacco manufactures
Textile mill products
Apparel and related products
Paper and allied products
Printing and publishing
Chemicals and allied products
Petroleum and related products
Rubber and plastic products
Leather and leather products
40.4 +
41.5
39.2
4-
41.1
38.2
40.2
35.5
42.8
o
0
n
+
+
4i
38.5
41.6
43.0
" 41.0
37.0
4_
o
42.8
39.6
40.9
41.5
39.7
4o
+
+
42.0
40.1
40.1
41.1
40.6
41.3
+
_
]
+
+
40.6
38.3
40.5
35.9
42.5
40.8
39, /
T
+
40.8
36.2
42.5
-f
+
+
+
+
1
38.6
41.5
42.6
41.1
37.7
42.3
39.9
41.7
41.1
39.5
o
38.3
41.2
42.6
40.9
37.7
o
o
o
40.3
4-
(52)
0
+
40
™
4-
41.2
40,1
40.3
41.3
40.6
41.2
+
42.0
40.0
41.2
+
+
o
41.0
39.0
40.4
35.7
42.6
40.6
38.4
40.6
35.9
42.7
4
38.3
41.3
42.6
41.2
37.9
+
n
4+
4-
o
+
+
4+
4
+
o
38.3
41.5
42.8
40.6
38.4
4-
4,
+
r42.3
r40.3
r40.7
r42.0
r41.0
r41.8
42.1
40.2
40.5
41.9
40.8
41.6
40.8
38.9
41.0
35.8
42.6
r41.0
r38.0 4
r41.4
r36.3
r42.7 o
41.8 4
39.9
o
40.2
41.3 +
40.9 +
41.3 +
39.4
+ 'i
+
41.9 •+
39.7 440.2 4
41.6 +
41,0 0
41.5 442.2 +
_
40.4
42.5 +
41.2 +
39.4 O
(74)
+
4o
40.7
(26)
40.7
(64)
42.1
40.3
41.4
41.0
39.2
41.0
4-
o
+
4.
(69)
40.4 4
n
+
+
+
+
4
4
38.3 o
41.5
43.1
42.0
38.3 4
r40.8
r42.7
r40.2
r42.7
r41.5
r39.4
r38.3
r41.4
r42.6
r41.9
r38.9
—_
42.4
40.2
42.3
41.5
39.2
0
o
40.6
38.8
41.2
35.8
42.7
38.1
41.6
43.0
42.0
38.6
4
~
4
4
'
D6. VALUE OF MANUFACTURERS' NEW ORDERS, DURABLE GOODS INDUSTRIES1
(Millions of dollars)
I
Al 1 durable goods industries
Primary metals
Blast furnaces, steel mills.
- I 22,065
*
(56)
:
3,013
22,226
+ \ 23,857
4-
24,263
(50)
3,236
1,701 +
;: 3,606
- ' 1,434
4
+ '
+ *
_
4- '
*. .
_
4- I
...
;
2,106
'F
...
V
Fabricated metal products
Metal cans, barrels, and drums
Hardware, structural metal and wire products ....
Other fabricated metal products
Machinery, except electrical
Steam engines and turbines*.
Internal combustion engines*
Farm machinery and equipment
Construction, mining, and material handling*.
Metalworking machinery*
Miscellaneous equipment*
....
Machine shops.
Special industry machinery*
General industrial machinery*
Office and store machines*
Service industry machinery*
2,136
2 , 247
0
(53)
...
r23,l83
23,726
3,470
1,794
l*(50)3
4
r3,651
pi, 990 -
3,459
(NA)
4-
•!
i
4
+
4
4
2,108
- |22,498
(40)
(65)
, 3,646
3,591
1,886 4- ! 1,994
2,020
4-
Iron and steel foundries
Other primary metals.
- fr23,715
(61)
(58)
pi, 998
2,254
1,979
:
(NA)
4
4
+ I
\
4)1
4
+ I
4-
3,351
291
3,429
+\
J
4"
3,590
3,497
+\
309 J 404 +}>
4-
586 +
218
;
...
4-
267
4-
...
612 4- 1
239
*
4• '
1
315
+
f:
633 - ;
197 + "
...
427
571 +
226
4-
3,945
X
+}
^9
...
i
598
217
4-/
4
4
455
_^i
,1
269 44-
P320
(NA)
*};
(NA)
668
327
4
299
4
4,
4
. <r .
p3,671
«**
...
+
...
;
(NA)
P 658 .
(NA)
p207 4
J ...
;
251 +
, *.
3,564
j\
4 '
4
4-
i
*. .
p298 +
302
...
(NA)
4- ';
!
4
...
NOTE: To facilitate interpretation, the month-to-month directions of change are shown along with the numbers: (+) = rising, (o) unchanged, and (-) = falling. Only
the directions of change are shown when numbers are held confidential by the source agency. NA = not available, p = preliminary, r : revised.
^Denotes machinery and equipment industries that comprise series 24.
x
Data are seasonally adjusted by source agency.
2
Based on 34 components.
58
liable 4
bed
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
NOVEMBER 1967
SELECTED DIFFUSION INDEXES AND COMPONENTS-Continued
Basic Data and Direction of Change-Continued
1967
Diffusion index components
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
06. VALUE OF MANUFACTURERS' NEW ORDERS, DURABLE GOODS INDUSTRIES1-Continued
(Millions of dollars)
+\
iJ
_
—
1
3,196
3,273
Electrical machinery
Electrical transmission distr. equipment*
Electrical industrial apparatus*
Household appliances
Radio and TV
Communication equipmentt
Electronic components.
Other electrical machinery*
683 ^j
4,
+j|
714
-1
+
!
"" i
705 + \
781
!
779 +J\
+i
+
...
1
773 - 1
4-1
+i
- j
4-
3,250
3,455
!
+ i
i
6,140
+
+1
"
.......
7,209
4- ij
•'
+
+
Complete aircraftf
Aircraft partsf
Shipbuilding and railroad equipment*
Other transportation equipment
-
4- '
...
_ ':
+ ''
+ '
•
!|
4, j;
+ i'
+
1
+ il
_
+
1
5 r5,950
_
»
4*
4,
+ 1
4- if
i
+ nI
-.
4- K
4-
...
—
!'
+
i.-
>;
4- •'
+
NA
NA
4.
_
_
4.
+
—
—
+
i
a
_
44- '
—
4.
_
+i
4-
—
93.01 + i
94.49 +
(78)
95-81 -
+ I
*'
p5,469
r5 845
.
+ r
:
(NA)
p975
;
ii
!
(NA)
4- i
+
0
_
— •'
_ i
(NA)
P615
4.
i!
+ 1
_
.;
+
0
;
p3,487
-\
—
+
_
! r6,697
7,327
+
Instruments total
Lumber total
Furniture total
Stone clay and glass total
Other durable goods, total
:!•
ii
+ «
4-
i
. . ,
4. ii
_
889
...
|
r794
+
733 + - j
1
*
5,911
Transportation equipment
Motor vehicle parts
^y
^^ -
^^ -^
„i
i
r3,640
3,579
—
I
D19. INDEX OF STOCK PRICES, 500 COMMON STOCKS2
(1941-43 = 10)
1;
Index of 500 stock prices
+
89.42
+ s
90.96 + ! 92.59 - :
(76)
(61)
i
Coal bituminous
Food composite
Tobacco (cigarette manufacturers)
Texti le products
Paper
Publishing
•*- i
+
+ •
Chemicals
Drugs
Oil composite
+
...
+
'
4- if
+
"
+ ii
+
^
_
+
+
+ *
:
+ ii
+i
+
+
4 «
+
+
1
*
i1
. . -
-Mr
- ii
+ Ii
.
-
...
...
+
f
— f
+
+ ,
+ l;
+ ^
+
K
:
+
+
+
+
+
+
"
*
*
^
1
- f
t(
S
I
1
jj
<
•
(51)
(82)
!i
+
+
+ ,
+
+
+ ; *>
_, i
+
_
_
_
+ f
+ j
+
?l
+
t
+ '
-••
f
— f
—
¥
+ i
?
r
_ '
_ i
+ '
r
-f
+ '
—
+ '
_
_
+ i
+ i+ 'i
+
:
+
i
+
4- i
—
^!
+
1
+
ij
+
+
o
*-
i!
Ii
li
i
-
i:
+
+
+
^
^
!':
p
i
i
is
^;
1:
_
j:
+
]|
- i;
—
- i
_ ,
;
+ ::
.'
..
+ I
+ !!;
+ !
+ ii
+ f
+ !!
i;
+
•'
- ;•'
-
j!
+
+ !i
- ft
+ '
+
:|
ji
}!
• + 11
i
;
+ '
"~
(32)
j
...
•'!
:
...
+
_. !
+ j
'+ !
+
— i
';
+ '
« ;!
+
+
+
'+
+
+
+
_
:
95.66
:
(57)
+ »
+ -i
— !:
+
— i;
•*-
+ ii
+ I
+ 1t!
+ f
.
91.43 +
+ ',
1
+ i:
+*
{:
i
Machinery composite
Office and business equipment
Electric household appliances
Electronics
Automobiles
Radio and television broadcasters
1
(74)
••
+ 1
Steel
Metal fabricating. . .'....
Telephone companies
Electric companies
Natural gas distributors
Retail stores composite
Life insurance
1
— r
+
_ :'
- i;
-
,;
+
- ,;
+
il
...
:
.!
+
+
+
-
i!
-
^
m f
_ 1
-
-
+
-
'
!;!
I
NOTE: To facilitate interpretation, the month-to-month directions of change are shown along with the numbers: (+) - rising, (o) - unchanged, and (-) = falling. Only
the directions of change are shown when numbers areheid confidential by the source agency, NA = not available, p•= preliminary, r = revised.
^Denotes machinery and equipment industries that comprise series 24.
t These industries plus ordnance comprise series 99.
Data are seasonally adjusted by the source agency.
2
Data are not seasonally adjusted. The components shown here include 18 of the more important industries and 5 composites
representing an additional 23 of the industries used in computing the diffusion index in table 3.
a
Based on 76 components beginning with July 1967.
1
59
Table 4
ANALYTICAL
MEASURES
NOVEMBER 1967
bed
SELECTED DIFFUSION INDEXES AND COMPONENTS-Continued
Basic Data and Direction of Change-Continued
1967
Diffusion index components
March
D23.
Industrial materials price
index (1957-59-100)
-
May
April
102.5 -
October
September
August
July
June
Novemberl
INDEX OF INDUSTRIAL MATERIALS PRICES 2
100.1 -
99.6 +
99.8 -
98.3
_
98.1 -
97.8 -
97.7 +
99.1
(54)
(19)
(46)
(46)
.385
.064
27.195 +
1.528
.141
.139
.382 +
.062
30.174
1.456 +
,140
.134 4-
.062
28.756 +
1.486 4.140
.135
.231 4.193
1.603
.152
10.971 0
,200
.052
.237 4.193
1.588 4
.152 410.971
.195
.050
.239 +
.192 +
1.591
.153 410.949
.185
.049
(Dollars)
Percent rising of 13 components
Copper scrap (Ib.)
Lead scrap (Ib,).
Steel scrap (ton)
Tin(lb.)
Zincflb.)
Burlap (yd.)
Cotton (Ib.), 15-market average
Print cloth (yd.), average
Wool tops (Ib.)
Hides (Ib.).
Rosin (100 Ib.)
Rubber (Ib.)
Tallow (Ib.)
Avg. weekly initial claims ...
4+
+
"
Percent rising of 47 components
Northeast region:
Boston (6)
Buffalo (20)
Newark (11)
New York (1)
Paterson(22)
Philadelphia (4)
Pittsburgh (9)
Providence (25)
North Central region:
Chicago (2)
Cincinnati (21)
Cleveland (10)
Columbus (26).
Detroit(5)
Indianapolis (23) .
Kansas City (19).
Milwaukee (17)
Minneapolis (13)
St. Louis (8)
South region:
Atlanta (18)
Baltimore (12).
Dallas (15)
Houston (14)
West region:
Los Angeles (3)
Portland (24)
San Francisco (7)
Seattle (16)
.3-43 +
.063 426.812 4~
1.569
.150
.146
.371
.06^
28.261
1.528
.H2
.141
.218
.197
1.601 4.177
10.732
.204
.050 4-
.218
.192
1.605
.159
10.669
.201
.051
.217
.193
1.663
.157
10.753
. 01
.052
256
263
U7)
(55)
4-
+
•f
4-
+
+
+
4+
(69)
4+
4•f
+
4+
44-
.368
.065 +
29.016
1.557
.142
.145 +
.219 +
.194
1.677
.166
10,721 +
.214
.051
234
(54)
4-
4-
4-
265
(30
225
(55)
+
4,
+
.385 4-
.460
.061
29.774
1.509
.139
.133
.259
.194
1.497
.158
10.938
.170
.046
4-
4
4
44,
4-
4
4-
4
4"
4-
44,
+
4-
4-
44.
+
4
4-
4"
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
+
+
4*
4,
4-
4
44
4,
4,
+
>
+
4-
4.
4.
4-
444,
444-
4
4-
44-
4
4,
44-
4.
44
4-
4-
4~
4-
+
+
203
(38)
+
4-
4
4.
+
200 ~"
(61)
4
4,
4-
4
4
4,
4
4
(72)
4*
+
4,
211 4,
44-
4-
4-
4,
+
4-
4
44-
(31)
.366 +
.065
27.451
1.550
.141 4.145
.223 4.193 41.646
.152 +
10.872 4.209
.050 4-
D5. INITIAL CLAIMS FOR UNEMPLOYMENT INSURANCE, STATE PROGRAMS3
(Thousands)
4
+
(62)
(23)
(23)
.393
.062 429.301
1.610
.151
,150
4,
4.
4"
NOTE: To facilitate interpretation, the month-to-month directions of change are shown along with the numbers: (+) = rising, (o) = unchanged, and (-) = falling. Only
the directions of change are shown when numbers are held confidential by the source agency. NA = not available, p = preliminary, r = revised.
1
Average for November 20, 21, and 22.
2
Series components are seasonally adjusted by the Bureau of the Census.
The industrial materials price index is not seasonally adjusted. Directions of change are computed before figures are rounded.
3
The signs are reversed because this series usually rises when general business activity falls and falls when business rises:
(-) = rising, (o) = unchanged, and (+) = falling. Series components are seasonally adjusted by the Bureau of the Census before
the direction of change is determined. Data used are for the week including the 12th of the month. Directions of change are
shown separately for only the 26 largest labor market areas. The number following the area designation indicates its size rank.
Digitized for60
FRASER
Table 4
bed
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
NOVEMBER 1967
SELECTED DIFFUSION INDEXES AND COMPONENTS-Continued
Basic Data and Direction of Change-Continued
1967
Diffusion index components
Augustr
July
June
May
April
March
September
October?
041. NUMBER OF EMPLOYEES IN NONAGRICULTURAL ESTABLISHMENTS1
(Thousands of employees)
4
All nonagricultural establishments
(40)
(43)
Ordnance and accessories . .
Lumber and wood products
Furniture and fixtures
Stone, clay, and glass products
Primary metal industries
Fabricated metal products
Macni nery
Electrical equipment
4
4
ri
...
Instruments and related products
Miscellaneous manufacturing industries
Food and kindred products
Tobacco manufactures
Textile mill products
Apparel and related products
Paper and allied products.
Printing and publishing
Chemicals and allied products
Petroleum and related products
Rubber and plastic products.
Leather and leather products
Mining
Contract construction
Transportation and public utilities
Wholesale trade
Retai 1 trade
Finance insurance, real estate
Service and miscellaneous
Federal government.
State and local government
_
4
_
+
146 4- 1
525
379 _
509
1,073 -
1,059
1,388
1,332 _
1,363
289 o
344 _
1,200
72
845
1,226
...
4
+
n
o
4.
n
-f i
4- ,
-f
+
531
674
580
116
403
304
1,049
1,046
1,380
-1,298 _
1,347 4
289
343
4
_
4
4.
4.
4
0
4
44
+
;
147 4
507 4,
375
495
1,042
1,041
1,373
1,284
1,361
65,903 4
(72)
(42)
147 n
514
374 4
499
4
4
4
287
342
_
149
512
371
498
1,037
1,048
1,372
1,251
1,377
285
340
1,196
4
74
835
4
4-
1,232 +
1,235
+
1,239
526
673 583
118
402
307
525
672
580
117
354
305
4
4,
535
673
583
119
362
302
617
4
620
3,276
4,212
3,545
10,027
3,194
9,973
2,688
8,787
4
+
-f
4
44
4
3,192
4,267
3,549
10,060
3,205
9,987
2,698
8,826
4
4
4-
n
+
4
+
4
44.
65,939
4
4
„
0
_
4
0
_
151
508
366
498
1,023
1,041
1,368
1,265
1,326
285
339
(*»8)
155
509
369
497
4
+
4_
1,024
4
1,048
4
1,375
1,290
1,410
285
337
4
4
4
0
_
1,185
75 +
841 _
4
+
+
Q
o
619 +
3,187 4
4,266 4
3,555 0
10,093 D
3,227 4
10,035 4
2,747 48,889 4
76 _
834 4
1 , 2204
536 _
674 —
585 O
119
362 4.
295 4,
623
3,231
4,292
3,555
10,092
3,234
10,074
2,759
8,910
r66,047
66,190
(53)
1,201
4
73 4,
838
1,195
+
624
3 313
4 246
3 535
10,022
3,179
9,946
2,685
8,754
65,639 4
65,653 o
65,749
_
4
0
4
4
4
;
1,148
72
839
1,223
534
673
585
118401
299
606
3,2?3
4,283
3,569
10,095
3,253
10,130
2,746
8,967
4-
66,165
(70)
(35)
0
4
_
_
_
_•
—
_
-.
4
—
4
_
_
_
_
4,
4
4.
4
4
4
4
r!54 '4
r509 4
370 +
r494 4_
r 1,007
rl,023 _
rl,363 _
rl,264i 4_
r 1,312
281 4
r336 0
rl,178
r69
r842
rl,2l8
r528
r669
584
rl!9
r405
300
r599
( r3,235
r4,266
r3,558
r!0,!48
r3,,263
rlO,l67
r2,715
r8,943
156
510
372
500
1,005
1,019
1,332
1,265
1,304
284
336
1,182
4
71
845
4
4
1,223
4
530
672
592
119
408
301
4
•f-
4
Q
4,
4,
_
_
4,
4
4
4
4
l
595
3,224
4,256
3,562
10,186
3,270
10,177
2,704
9,025
- »
D47. INDEX OF INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTJON1
(1957-59=100)
156.4 +
All industrial production...
Percent rising of 24 components
2
Durable goods:
Primary and fabricated metals
Primary metal products
Fabricated metal products
Machinery and related products
Machinery, except electrical
Transportation equipment
Instruments and related products
Clay glass, and lumber
Clay glass and stone products
Lumber and products
Furniture and fixtures
Miscellaneous
'(40)
|
i
„
_
4
4
129.2
162.9
! r!56.5
155.6
r!55.6
4
(56)
rl56.6
4
(58)
158.2
(25)
129.1
128.9
160.8
4
0
r 129.0
160.8
4
_
r!29.6
r!59.8
4
*
130.3
159.0
181.7
178.9
rl67.5
185.3
_
181.3
r!72.4
rl69.3
184.1
4
4
4
-
182.2
177.1
170.8
182.9
4
4
182.6
183.2
171.9
183.2
rl83.5
rl8Q.3 rl65.7 4
185.2 4
4,
_
4
4
156.2
r!56.7
(50)
(67)
(44)
rl6l.O
' 185.2 _
rl83.6
rl62.6 4
185.8
0
4
_
_
_
4
rl31.2
156.6
rlSl.6
rl82.4
r!59.4
r!84.3
(44)
4
4
_
_
4
4
!
4
;_
4
134.9
r!17.3
166.5
158.2
4.
4
O
4
136,0
rll9.I
166.5
159*2
_
134,8
115.6
_
133,5
114.9
166.5
158.1 „ :
rl34.1
115.5
4
136.9
109.2,
4
4
r!38.5
pill. 3
_
_
O
44
166.3
156.7
^
162.7
155.4
4
_
164.8
154*9
4
4
r!66.6
r!56.4
0
4
_
_
132
158
177
181
159
185
129
139
(NA)
166
153
-
NOTE' To facilitate interpretation, the month-to-month directions of change are shown along with the numbers: (4) - rising, (o) = unchanged, and (-) - fading. Only
the directions of change are shown when numbers are held confidential by the source agency. NA = not available, p = preliminary, r = revised.
•"•Data are seasonally adjusted by the source agency.
2
Where actual data for separate industries are not available, estimates are used to compute the percent rising.
of change for the most recent spans are computed before figures for the current month are rounded.
Directions
61
Table 4
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
bed
NOVEMBER 1967
SELECTED DIFFUSION INDEXES AND COMPONENTS-Continued
Basic Data and Direction of Change-Continued
1967
Diffusion index components
May
April
March
September
August
July
June
October
D47. INDEX OF INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION1-Continued
(1957-59=100)
Nondurable goods:
Textiles apparel and leather
Apparel products* • * «
Leather and products
Paper and products
Printing and publishing
f
r!38.8
143.6
rlOl.O
••
o
4*
152.4
r!47 4
Chemicals petroleum and rubber ............
4,
Chemicals and products
Petroleum products
Rubber and plastics products
r201 1
130 1
r!88 4
Foods, beverages, and tobacco
Foods and beverages
Tobacco products
r!32.3
116.2
_
Minerals:
Crude oil and natural gas
Metal, stone, and earth minerals
Metal mining
Stone and earth minerals
_
115.1
44-
143.7
137.2
4-
4
+
+
_
+
_
r!37.8 o
r!42.5
107.1
r!5"' 1 _
14& 3
r20C> 1
13 3 i
186 9
r!37.8 „.
r!42.6
105.0 +
r!99.6 +
132, 1 4rl65 7 4-
r!99 9
r!34 4
rl66 9
4
-
131.9
123.9
~
120.1
117.5
4-
-
136.8
r!44.2
r!03.0
4-
138.5
4
+
pl46,l
pl06.2
4-
r!52.8
r!48.6
4-
4-
4
4-
132.9
129,2
4*
4
4-
r!39.2
pl41.2
r201 0
r!32.8
170 1
4
—
4-
r200.7
rl32,4
p205 9
—
4
4
p!52.7
r!45.8
133.9
133.3
4_
4
r!31.5
123.6
122,6
r 129.1
119.7
133.7
4
_
4_
4-
117.2
130.8
191 3
p202,5
P136.9
r!05.8
r!36,6
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
4-
p!30.9
(NA)
-
113.9
128.9
_
-
P98.3
P136.1
106.8
(66)
4-
107.1
106.1
101.0
104 5
103 5
4-
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
-
(NA)
rl31.9
p!21.3
p!40
p!48
(NA)
_
r 149.0
148 3
130.2
122.5
rl21.6
4
4
(NA)
(NA)
_
125.5
r 117.1
130.6
4-
4-
4-
_
r!42.4
r!05.4
rl51.6
147 8
4-
132.0
117.4
149.5
4-
_
151.4
147.4
r!33.1 _
rll6.0 +
4-
136.6
p!31
?NA)
(NA)
-.
pl!8
p!23
pl!7
(NA)
(NA)
0
107.1
4
-
D58, INDEX OF WHOLESALE PRICES, MANUFACTURING INDUSTRIES2
(1957-59=100)
All manufacturing industries
Durable goods:
Lumber and wood products
Furniture and other household durables
Nonmetalfic mineral products ,.
Iron and steel
Nonferrous metals
Fabricated structural metal products
Miscellaneous metal products
General purpose machinery and equipment
Miscellaneous machinery
Electrical machinery and equipment
Motor vehicles and equipment
Miscellaneous products
Nondurable goods:
Processed foods and feeds
Cotton products
Wool products
Manmade fiber textile products
Apparel
Pulp, paper, and allied products
Chemicals and allied products
Petroleum products, refined
Rubber and rubber products
Hides, skins, leather, and related products
106.3
106.2
(57)
(48)
4
106.3
4
106.6
4-
104 . 1 +
100,6 +
103 . 9
103 2 o
104.2 +
100.8 o
103.8 4
103 2 +
104 7
100.8
103 9
103 3
o
121.1
104 8
i;>o . o
118.9
105 1
118 7
104 9
~f"
Q
+
+
O
_
4+
o
4H"
+
113 7
113 0
108.8
102.2
101.6
107.8
110.6
101.3
104.0
86.9
106.0
0
40
4
104 9
113 6
44"
1137
11 ? O +
1 "I -a p
108.8
108.9
101.9
101.6
108.0
+
_
102.3
101.6 \ 0
108.0 o
110.0
100.8
132.9
44
86,8
4
106.2
4-
103.6 498.5 4102 4
95 9 o
117 '.0
103.9
98 8
101 7
95 9
116.0
0
o
4_
Q
4-
105.3
4
4-
100.9
104.2
103 4
4
+
„
4-
+
118.6
105 1
113 8
4
4
4.
4.
113 ?
4-
109.1
0
4
101 8
101.4
109.6
-
109.1
101.7
101,3
109.7
103.9
98 5
103 1
95 8
115.6
Q
+
+
4
-|-
103.9 o
98.8
103 7
95 8
115.4
4
+
1137
4-
4-
4-
mi
112.6
99.7
103.2
85.8
106.7
110.7
100.3
103.1
86.3
106,3
0
(50)
(57)
103.6 4,
100.6 o
103.8 4103 3
o
-t+
106.8
(6-4)
4
4
4-
4
444Q
113.1
98.9
103.3
85.5
107.1
O
4
4
4-
104.1
98 3
103 3
4.
9*5 8
4.
115.2
118.9
105 5
114 2
113 6
109.4
101.6
101.3
110.0
112.1
98.8
102.9
85.9
107.3
104.0
98 0
104 6
97 8
114.4
(73)
(75)
4
+
4
+
4.
4
4
+
+
4
4
44
4
4,
O
108.7
101.2
104 7
44
104 o
119.4
4
105 6
114 1
114 0
109.7
101 5
101.5
110.2
4"
112.7
99.2
102.7
86.3
107.4
104.1
97 9
103 9
98 2
114.4
Q
4
4
O
+
4
4
4
4+
4
4
4
107.3
101.7
104 9
103 9
120.7
105 7
114 1
m
l
109.9
101 5
103.7
110.5
111.7
99.1
102.8
86.9
107.5
104.3
98 2
101 0
98 8
114.8
NOTE: To facilitate interpretation, the month-to-month directions of change are shown along with the numbers: (+) = rising, (o) = unchanged, and (-) = falling. Only
the directions of change are shown when numbers are held confidential by the source agency. NA = not available, p = preliminary, r = revised.
•"•Data are seasonally adjusted by the source agency.
2
Data are not seasonally adjusted.
Digitized for62
FRASER
Table 4
bed
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
NOVEMBER 1967
SELECTED DIFFUSION INDEXES AND COMPONENTS-Continued
Basic Data and Direction of Change—Continued
1967
Diffusion index components
May
April
March
Augustr
July
June
October p
September
D54. SALES OF RETAIL STORES1
(Millions of dollars)
All retail sales
Other food stores
Mail-order houses (department store merchandise) ..
Variety stores
Other general merchandise stores
Men's and boys' wear stores
Women's apparel accessory stores
Fami ly and other apparel stores
Shoe stores
Furniture home furnishings stores ••
••
Household appliance TV radio stores • • *
Lumberyards building materials dealers .*....*•
Hardware stores* •
••
Passenger car and other automotive dealers......*
Tire battery accessory dealers
Gasoline service stations
Drug and proprietary stores
*
••••
Lictuor stores* •
*•
+
25,918
(44)
(61)
+
+
5,535
5,513
44,
2,046
2,200 -t-
2,034
2,278
223 4-
230
520
25,897
+ I
4-
(35)
5,507
4-'
448
315 +
557 4-
4-
4-
254
791
4-
441
794
255
423
779
269
4-
_
4,
4,291
+
4,348
4-
311
+
312
1,964
4-
889
584
4-
+
4-
•
-..
+
' * " :: -
-.,:
i
1,992"
+
:+
-
228
516
4-
444-
+
+
1,996
:
+
:+
4-
*.. • - ;
, .. -
26,152 :
(72)
(33) •
p5,545
+
2,071
4-
2,094
+
2,305
4-
2,341
222
516
4+
4-
236
506
26,753
+
+
4-
332
594
1
340
605
4-
+
241
784
•+
250
781
450
754 +
260 n
397
771
260
•f
424
767
258
4,750 +
4,814
319
316
2,040
2,020
_
_
p2,137
p2,351
p239
903
580
+
+
... +
• .. •
4-
...
*,
; .,.
+
(NA)
4-
(NA) ;
(NA) :
P323
-
p601
4,731
!
i
+
2,003
4-
p258
p8lO
p442
p800
p254
p4,898
P329
p2,017
p908
p597
913
597
0
1
(NA)
0
(NA)
(NA)
+
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
_
-
+
. . .~
.. .
+
(NA) ;
i
-
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
i
'
•
;
...
... i
NOTE: To facilitate interpretation, the month-to-month directions of change are shown along with the numbers: (+)= rising, (o) = unchanged, and (-) = falling. Only
the directions of change are shown when numbers are held confidential by the source agency, NA = not available, p = preliminary, r = revised.
are; seasonally adjusted by the source agency.
;
~
+
322
(NA) :
-.
+
+
4- ;
4+
(NA) ;
+
p517
4.
4-
923
599 .- \
44-
+
4
244
775
4,448
903
598
906
609
4-
5,516
+
+
246
795
304
4-
2,059
2,377
326
596
44-
4-
(61)
+
4*
420
750
251
26,422 4-
5,500 +
4-
317
585
4-
" (44)
o
44+
215'
504
333
614
228 +
755 +
26,444
(83)
5,548
4-
2,038
2,283
4-
4-
26,544
4-
' +
4-
Other nondurable-goods stores
25,739 +
Appendix A.-BUSINESS CYCLE EXPANSIONS AND CONTRACTIONS IN THE UNITED STATES: 1854 TO 1961
Duration in months
Business cycle reference dates
Trough
December 1854
December 1858
June 1861
December 1867
December 1870.
March 1879
Contraction
(trough from
previous
peak)
Cycle
Expansion
(trough to
peak)
Trough from
previous
trough
Peak from
previous
peak
Peak
June 1857
October 1860 . .
April 1865 .
. .
June 1869
October 1873
". March 1882
(x)
18
8
32
IE
65
30
22
46
15
34
36
(X)
48
30
78
36
99
40
54
50
52
101
(x)
May 1885
April 1888
May.1891
June 1894
June 1897
December 1900
March 1887
July 1890
January 1893
December 1895
June 1899
September 1902
38
13
10
17
18
18
22
27
20
18
24
21
74
35
37
37
36
42
60
40
30
35
42
39
August 1904
June 1908
January 1912
December 1914
March 1919
July 1921
May 1907
January 1910
January 1913 • • . •• . .
August 1918
January 1920 • . * *
May 1923
23
13
24
23
7
15
33
19
12
44
22
44
46
43
35
51
28
56
32
36
67
17
40
July 1924
November 1927
March 1933
June 1938
October 1945
October 1949
October 1926
August 1929
May 1937
February 1945
November 1948
July 1953
14
13
43
13
8
11
27
21
50
80
37
45
36
40
64
63
88
35
41
'34
93
93
Z5
56
August 1954
April 1958
February 1961
July 1957 .
May 1960
13
9
9
35
25
(X)
58
44
34
48
34
(X)
Average, all cycles:
26 cycles 1854-1961 . .
10 cycles, 1919-1961 . .
4 cycles 1945-1961.. .
19
15
10
30
35
36
49
50
46
Average, peacetime cycles:
22 cycles, 1854-1961 ..
8 cycles, 1919-1961 . . ,
3 cycles, 1945-1961 . . .
20
16
10
26
28
32
45
45
42
To
*49
54
46
2
3
*46
5
48
6
42
NOTE: Underscored figures are the wartime expansions (Civil War, World Wars I and II, and Korean War), the postwar contractions,and
the full cycles that include.the wartime expansions.
^5 cycles, 1857-1960.
9 cycles, 1920-1960.
2
5
4 cycles,
4
1945-1960.
21 cycles, 1857-1960.
5
7 cycles, 1920-1960.
63 cycles, 1945-1960.
Source: National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
65
Appendix B.-SPECIFIC TROUGH AMD PEAK DATES FOR SELECTED BUSINESS INDICATORS
Specific trough dates for reference expansions beginning inSelected series
Feb.
1961
Apr.
1958
Aug.
1954
Oct.
1949
June
1938
Mar.
1933
Nov.
1927
July
1924
July
1921
LEADING INDICATORS
1. Average workweek, production workers,
30.
38
6
10.
29.
Dec. '60
'61
'61
'61
'61
'60
Apr.
Mar.
Apr.
Jan.
Mar.
Feb.
'56
'58
'58
'58
'58
'58
Dec.
Dec.
Oct.
IstQ
Apr.
Apr.
Dec.
IstQ
'58 Nov.
'58 Feb.
'57 Sep.
'58 4thQ
Nonagricultural placements, all industries. . . Jan.
Jan.
Index of net business formation
New orders durable goods industries ...... Jan.
Contracts and orders, plant and equipment. . .Mar.
New building permits, private housing units. . Dec.
3L Change in book value, manufacturing and
trade inventories
*
23. Industrial materials prices
19 Stock prices, fiOO common stocks
16. Corporate profits after taxes (Q)
17. Ratio, price to unit labor cost,
manufacturing
113. Change in consumer installment debt
'60
'60
'60
'61.
Apr.
May
Mar.
Sep.
Mar.
Sep.
'54
' 54
'54
'53
'54
'53
Apr.
July
July
June
Apr.
Jan.
'49 'Jan. '38 June '32 Apr. '28 July '24 Feb. '21
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
'49
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
'49
(NSC) May ' 24 Jan. '21
'49 Apr. '38 Mar. '33
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
'49
'49 Dec. '37 Dec. '32 May ' 27 July '24 Dec. '20
'53 Apr. '49
'54 June '49
'53 June '49
'53 2ndQ '49
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
June '38 July '32 Aug. '28 June '24 July '21
' (NSC) Oct. '23 Aug. '21
Apr. '38 June '32
2ndQ '38 3rdQ '32 4thQ '27 3rdQ '24 2ndQ '21
Aug. '27
(NA)
June '24 Mar, '21
(NA)
(NA)
Jan. '61 Mar. '58 Mar. '54 May '49
Apr. '61 Mar. '58 Mar. '54 Jan. '49
Dec. '37 Apr. '32
Feb. '38 Feb. '32
Feb. '61 May 1 58 Aug. '54 Oct. '49
May ' 61 July '58 Sep. '54 Oct. '49
IstQ '61 IstQ ' 58 2ndQ ' 54 2ndQ '49
June '38 Mar. '33 Jan. '28 July '24 July '21
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
June '38 May '33
(NSC) 4thQ '21
(NSC)
IstQ '38 3rdQ '32
Feb. '61
(NSC)
Jan. '61
Apr. '61
May '38
May '38x
(NA)
May '38
ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
41. Employees in nonagricultural establishments.
43. Unemployment rate, total (inverted)
50. GNP in 1958 dollars (Q)i
47.
52.
816
54
Industrial production
Personal income
Manufacturing and trade sales
Sales of retail stores
Apr.
Feb.
Mar.
Mar.<
'58
'58
'58
'58
Apr.
Apr.
Aug.
Jan.
'58
Oct. '54
'54
'54
'54
'54
Oct. '49
July '49
Oct. '49
(NSC)
July '32 Nov. '27
Mar '33 4thQ ' 26
(NA)
(NA)
(NSC)
Mar. '33
July '24 Apr. '21
2 n d Q ' 2 A 2ndQ '21
(NA)
(NA)
Mar. '22
(NSC)
LAGGING INDICATORS
502. Unemployment rate, persons unemployed
15 weeks and over ( inverted)
61. Business expenditures, new plant and
equipment (Q)
71. Book value, manufacturing and trade
inventori es
62. Labor cost per unit of output,
manufacturing
72. Commercial and industrial loans
outstanding
67. Bank rates on short-term business
loans (Q)
July '61 Aug.
Nov.
'49
2ndQ '61 3rdQ '58 IstQ '55
4thQ '49
Mar. '61 Aug. '58
Oct. '54
Dec.- '49
Sep. '61 June '59
Sep. '55
July '50
(NSC)
(NA)
3rdQ '38 IstQ '33
(NA)
June '40
(NA)
July '33
'49
Dec. '38
(NA)
IstQ '50
3rdQ '41
(NSC)
July '58 Oct. '54 Aug.
4thQ '61 2ndQ '58 IstQ '55
(NA)
(NA)
4thQ '27
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
3rdQ '24 4thQ '21
(NA)
(NSC)
(NSC)
(NA)
(NA)
Feb. '28 Nov. '24
(NA)
Apr. '22
(NA)
Sep. '22
NOTE: Specific trough dates are the actua| dates when individual series reached a trough as distinguished from the reference dates which are those dates designated as
the trough of business activity as a whole. This table shows, for the 25 indicators on the NBER "short list," the specific dates corresponding to reference dates in 9 recent
business cycles.
NA- Not available.
66
NSC= No specific cycle corresponding to reference date.
Appendix B.-SPECIFIC TROUGH AND PEAK DATES FOR SELECTED BUSINESS INDICATORS-Continued
Specific peak dates for reference contractions beginning inSelected series
May
1960
July
1957
July
1953
May
1937
Nov.
1948
Aug.
1929
Oct.
1926
May
1923
Jan.
1920
LEADING INDICATORS
1. Average workweek, production workers,
manufacturing
30. Nonagri cultural placements, all industries,. . .
38. Index of net business formation
6. New orders, durable goods industries
10. Contracts and orders, plant and equipment. . .
29. New building permits, private housing units. .
31. Change in book value,
manufacturing and
trade inventories 1
*. •
23. Industrial materials prices
19 Stock prices 500 common stocks
16 Corporate profits after taxes (Q)
17. Ratio, price to unit labor cost,
manufacturing
113 Change in consumer installment debt
.
(NSC) Dec. '36 Oct. '29 Nov. '25 Nov. '22
(NSC)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
Apr. '46
(NSC) Nov. '25 Jan. '23
Aug. '48 Dec. '36
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
June '48
Oct. '47 Feb. '37 Feb. '28 July '25 Jan. '24
June
July
Apr.
Apr.
Sep.
Nov.
' 59
'59
'59
'59
'59
'58
Nov.
Nov.
Mar.
Dec.
Nov.
Feb.
'55
'55
'55
'55
'56
'55
Dec.
Nov.
July
2ndQ
'59
'59
'59
'59
Apr.
Dec.
July
4thQ
(NA)
(NA)
'56 Jan. '53 July '46
'55 Feb. '51 Jan. '48 Mar. '37 Mar. '29
'56 Jan. '53 June '48 Feb. '37 Sep. '29
'55 2ndQ '53 2ndQ '48 4thQ '36 3rdQ '29
June '59
Aug. '59
Oct. '55
Mar. '55
Mar.
Feb.
Sep.
Jan.
May
Nov.
'53
'53
'52
'53
' 51
'52
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
July '19
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
'25 Mar. '23 Apr. '20
(NSC) Mar. '23 July '19
(NA)
3rdQ '26 2ndQ '23
Nov.
Jan. ' 51 June '48 Mar. '37 July '29
Dec. '52 Mar. '48 Mar. '36 May ' 29
Sep. '26
(NA)
June '22 Feb. '20
(NA)
(NA)
June '53 Sep. '48 July '37
June '53 Jan. '48 July '37
2ndQ '53 4thQ '48 3rdQ '37
Jan. '26
(NA)
(NSC)
June '23 Jan. '20
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NSC)
ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
41. Employees in nonagricultural establishments,
43. Unemployment rate, total (inverted)
50. GNP in 1958 dollars (0)
47.
52
816
54
Industrial production
Personal income
Manufacturing and trade sales
Sales of retail stores
.
Apr . ' 60 Mar. '57
Feb. '60 Mar. '57
IstQ '60 3rdQ '57
Jan. '60 Feb. '57 July '53 July '48 May ' 37
(NSC) Aug. '57 Oct. '53 Oct. '48 June '37
(NA)
Jan. '60 Feb. '57 July '53 Aug. '48
(NSC)
Sep. '37
Apr. '60 Aug. '57 Mar. '53
Aug.
'29
(NA)
3rdQ '29
July '29 Mar. '27- May '23 Feb. '20
(NA)
Aug. '29 2ndQ '26 IstQ '24
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NSC)
July '20
(NSC)
Sep. '29
LAGGING INDICATORS
502. Unemployment
rate, persons unemployed
15 wpeks and over ( inverted)
61. Business expenditures, new plant and
eouipment (0)
71. Book value, manufacturing and trade
inventories
62. Labor cost per unit of output,
manufacturing
72. Commercial and industrial loans
outstanding.
67. Bank rates on short-term business
loans (Q)
May
'60 'Sep. '57
Oct. '53
Jan. '49
(NA)
3rdQ '37
2ndQ '60
3rdQ '57
3rdQ '53 4thQ '48
July '60
Sep. '57
Sep. '53 Feb. '49
(NA)
(NA)
2ndQ>' '29
(NA)
4thQ '26
(NA)
(NA)
Jan. '61 Mar. '58 Mar. '54 Nov.
'48
Dec. '37
(NSC)
(NSC)
(NA)
(NA)
(NSC)
Sep. '57
July '53
Aug.
'48
Sep. '37
4thQ '59
4thQ '57
4thQ '53
2ndQ '49
(NSC)
Oct. '29
Oct. '26
(NA)
(NA)
2ndQ '23
2ndQ '20
(NA)
Oct. '23 Nov.
(NA)
(NA)
'20
(NA)
Oct. '23 Feb. '21
NOTE: Specific peak dates are the actual dates when individual series reached a peak as distinguished from the reference dates which are those dates designated as.the
peak of business activity as a whole. This table shows, for the 25 indicators on the NBER "short list," the specific dates corresponding to reference dates in 9 recent business cycles.
NA= Not available.
NSC= No specific cycle corresponding to reference date".
67!
Appendix COVERAGE CHANGES AND RELATED MEASURES FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES
Part 1.4Average Percentage Changes
Period
covered
Monthly series
Average duration of run
(ADR)
w
Cl
1
c
T/C
for
MCD
span
MCD
Cl
1
C
MCD
MONTHLY SERIES
LEADING INDICATORS
*1. Average workweek of production workers, mfg
*30 Nonagricultural placements all industries*
2 Accession rate manufacturing
5. Average weekly initial claims, State
unemployment insurance
Jan. '53-Aug,'67.
Jan. '53-Sep. '65 .
Jan. '53-June'67.
1.34
4.38
1.09
1.43
2.18
1.23
3.05
3
2
4
.73
1.83
4.63
.63
.79
2,19
2.11
2.19
1.48
1.52
1.49
12.36
4.02
3.97
3.70
Jan. '53-Sep. '65 .
4.95
4.38
2.17
2.02
2
.95
1.69
1.42
12.67
3 . 97
3
*38
13
*6
94
Jan.
Jan.
Jan.
Jan.
Jan.
9.25
8.41
3.26
3
2
3
3
5
.85
.66
.78
.66
.87
2.16
2.71
1.92
1.81
1.55
1,48
1.63
1.63
1.58
1.52
7.86
6.61
7.24
8.44
8.00
4.75
4.08
3.19
4,41
3.15
9.50
Layoff rate manufacturing
Index of net business formation
New business incorporations
New orders durable goods industries
Construction contracts value
•
'53-June'67.
'53-Sep. '65.
'53-Sep. '65.
'53-Sep : '65.
'53-Sep. '65.
Jan. '53-Sep. '65.
*10 Contracts and orders plant and equipment
24. New orders, machinery and equipment industries . .Jan. '53-Sep. '65.
9. Construction contracts, commercial
Jan. '53-Sep. '65 .
and industrial floor space
May '59-June '67 .
7 Private nonfarm housing starts
.46
.41
.19
9.72
7.24
2.49
3.76
6.64
2.18
3.33
6.38
1,00
1.51
1,55
2.58
1.15
2.18
2.20
4.12
4.69
4.18
4.39
3.81
1.43
1.52
3.08
2.51
4
3
.84
.88
1.88
1.83
1.71
1.60
10.86
3.39
3.41
9.30
7.30
9.17
7.10
1.18
9.41
6.04
6
6
C1)
C1)
1.60
1.60
1.48
1.55
12.6?
16.83
3.00
2.67
.79
.60
.53
.97
*29 New building permits private housing
37. Purchased materials, percent reporting
higher inventories
26. Buying policy, production materials,
commitments 60 days or longer
32. Vendor performance, percent reporting
slower deliveries
Jan. '53-June'66..
3.70
3.31
1.30
2.54
3
.82
1.87
1.55
12.38
3.06
Jan. '53-Sep. '65..
6.46
5.24
2.84
1.85
3
.76
2.37
1.62
7.60
3,57
Jan. '53-Sep. '65..
5.27
4.77
1.98
2.41
3
.77
1.88
1.63
8.94
3.49
Jan. '53-Sep. '68..
7.47
5.79
4.00
1.45
2
.95
3.17
1.85
8,94
3,77
*23. Industrial materials prices
*19 Stock prices, 500 common stocks
*17. Ratio, price to unit labor cost, manufacturing.
14. Liabilities of business failures
39 Delinquency rate installment credit loans
Jan.
Jan.
Jan.
Jan.
Jan.
'53-Sep. '65.. 1.31
'53-Sep. '68.. 2.49
'53-Oct. '66..
.62
'53-Sep. '65.. 18.74
'53-Dec. '65.. 2.63
1.04
1.68
1.41
1.02
1.93
2
2
3
6
3
,99
.57
.92
t1)
.80
2.49
2.37
2.62
1,49
1,85
2.11
1.58
1.70
1.39
1.57
11,69
3 . 87
1.64
9.50
5.69
8.94
3.97
4.18
2.23
4.17
Jan.
Jan.
Jan.
Jan.
Jan.
'53-Dec. '66..
'53-Sep. '65..
'53-Dec. '66..
'53-Aug. '67..
'53-Dec. '66.,
3.12
3.00
.76
.81
.51
.52
,75
3.27
3.10
2.98
5.00
2.09
1.70
1.39
1.52
1.61
1.55
9.82
8.94
1.42
1
1
2
1
2
12.85
19,44
27.83
3.27
3.10
5.03
5.00
4,05
Jan. '53-Dec. '66..
3.94
3.05
2.16
1.41
2
.72
2.53
1,44
7.95
4.05
Jan. '53-Sep. '65..
Nov. '54-Dec. '66 .
4.19
5.07
2.19
4.38
3.29
2.55
1.72
1
2
.67
.92
4.90
3.37
1.75
1.48
7.60
8.53
4.90
4.11
Jan. '53-Sep. '65..
Jan. '53-June'G6..
1.02
.71
.58
1
1
.71
.58
3.62
4.88
1.67
1.56
11.69
23.00
3.62
4.88
.78
1
2
.78
.62
2.93
2.35
1.56
1.50
14.64
3.79
2.93
3.69
3
1
.70
,42
2.08
5.63
1,57
1.57
15.20
10.86
4.84
5.63
1
2
.84
.77
3.88
3.27
1.64
1.78
9.82
1.25
10.44
3.88
4.61
1.12
1.60
1.41
1.90
2
3
2
3
.73
.74
.98
.87
2.53
2.54
2.76
1.77
1.85
2,00
3 .Art
.73
.51
18.24
'2.42
1.70
1.77
1.87
2.34
2.30
.27
.95
10.72
2.55
a. 44
ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
301
46
511.
*41.
42
Nonagricultural job openings unfilled
Help-wanted advertising
Man-hours in nonagricultural establishments
Employees in nonagricultural establishments
Total nonagricultural employment
*43. Unemployment rate, total
45. Average weekly insured unemployment
rate, State programs
40. Unemployment rate, married males.
*47. Industrial production
*52 Personal income
53. Wage and salary income in mining, manufacturing,
and construction
*816 Manufacturing and trade sales
.44
.31
.35
.53
Jan. '53-June'66..
Jan. '53-Dec. '66..
1,02
*54. Sales of retail stores
96. Unfilled orders, durable goods industries
55. Wholesale prices, industrial
commodities
58. Wholesale prices, manufactured goods
Jan. '53-Sep. '65..
Jan. '53-Sep. '65..
1.45
114.
116.
115.
117.
Jan.
Jan.
Jan.
Jan
Treasury bill rate
Corporate bond yields.
Treasury bond yields
Municioal bond yields
Jan. (53-Dec. '66. .
Jan. '53-Dec. '66..
'53-Sep. '65..
'59-June '66. .
'53-Sep. '65..
'53-Seo '65..
.84
.97
.17
.20
6.70
1.58
1.65
2.46
See footnotes and definitions of measures at end of part 1.
68
.31
.14
.29
.31
.27
.21
.76
.81
1.00
.52
.67
.54
.27
.76
.46
.50
.74
.64
.62
1.19
.44
1.88
.83
.54
.11
.16
5.00
1.31
1.31
2.08
1.28
.13
.13
4.46
.82
.93
1.10
.42
.84
?.5ft
6.61
12.71
8.00
A.nn
3.68
3.78
3.68
l.AA •
Appendix C.-AVERAGE CHANGES AND RELATED MEASURES FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES-Continued
Part l.-Average Percentage Changes-iContinued
Average duration of run
(ADR)
T/c
Period
covered
Monthly sejies
•51
1
c
T/C
for
MCD
span
MCD
Cl
1
C
MCD
MONTHLY SERIES-Continued
LAGGING INDICATORS
4.16
1.26
2
1.32
.18
.89
.50
1.49
.36
2
1
.62
.28
.55
.52
Jan.'53-Sep.'65..
Jan. '53-Sep. '65 . .
.51
.84
.37
.11
.30
.82
Jan. '53-Dec. '66..
Jul. ?61-Sep. '65 . .
.95
,11
.46
.07
Jan. '53-Dec, '66..
Jan. '53-OcL'64..
.19
3.81
Oct. '62-Dec.'66..
Jan. '57-Dec. '66..
Jan. '53-Oct.'64..
Jul. '53-Sep. '65 ..
Jan. '56-Sep. '65..
Jan. '53-Sep. '65..
July'55-Apr. '67..
*502. Unemployment rate, 15 weeks and over
Jan.
505. Machinery and equipment sales and business
construction expenditures
Jan.
Jan.
*7L Book value, manufacturing and trade inventories . . .
65, Book value, manufacturers' inventories
of finished goods.
Jan.
*62 Labor cost per unit of output manufacturing
66. Consumer installment debt
*72. Commercial and indus. loans outstanding, weekly
reporting large commercial banks
118. Mortgage yields, residential
,
'53-Dec. '66..
6.52
5.25
'53-Dec. '66..
'53-Dec. '66..
1.63
.54
'53-Dec. '66..
4.07
1.55
7.95
5.72
.75
.36
1.96
7.26
1.50
1.58
18.56
23,86
3.32
7.26
1
.52
3.63
1.42
15.18
3.63
1.26
.14
2
1
.72
.14
2.54
11.69
1.57
1.63
7.86
21.71
3.81
11.69
.83
.11
.55
.65
1
1
.55
.65
4.07
10.00
1.50
1.92
23.86
5.56
4.07
10.00
.12
3.56
.14
.94
.83
3.77
1
4'
.83
.91
3.98
1.78
1.62
1.66
9.82
14.10
3.98
4.06
12.45
6.32
3.04
13.86
27.42
22.53
18.06
12.28
6.10
2.87
13.59
27.34
22.53
17.61
1.57
1.84
.80
1.26
2.16
1.92
1.92
7'. 80
3.31
3.59
10.77
12.68
11.72
9.17
6
4
4
6
6
6
6
C1)
.85
.86
t1)
t1)
1.43
1.63
1.83
1.40
1.43
1.57
1.44
1.35
1.55
1.62
1.42
1.43
1.48
1.38
16.67
9.92
10.85
6.64
8.92
9.50
10.07
2.37
3.05
3.54
2.07
2.02
2.53
2.43
Jan. '53-Apr. '67..
Jan. '53-Apr, '67..
.99
2.04
.86
1.76
.47
.98
1.82
1.80
2
3
.93 . 2.85
2.09
.71
1.50
1.58
9.00
10.69
4.72
4.45
Jan. '53-Apr. '67..
.95
.62
.66
.95
1
.95 .
2.71
1.54
9.00
2.71
Jan. '53-Apr. '67..
5.78
3.41
4.21
.81
1
.81
2.95
1.50
8.55
2.95
, .64
OTHER SELECTED U.S. SERIES
81. Consumer prices
86 Exports excluding military aid
861. (Export orders, durables except motor vehicles
and parts
862 Export orders nonelectrical machinery
87 General imports
91. Defense Department obligations, total
90. Defense Dept. obligations, procurement
990 New orders, defense products industries
92. Military contract awards in U.S.
C1)
t1)
U.S. SERIES UNDER CONSIDERATION
851 Ratio inventories to sales, mfg. and trade
852. Ratio, unfilled orders to shipments, durable goods. .
853. Ratio, production of business equipment to production of consumer goods
855. Ratio, nonagricultural job openings unfilled to
number of persons unemployed
856. Ratio, average hourly earnings of production
workers in manufacturing to consumer prices
Jan. '53-Apr. '67..
.35
.29
.19
1.52
2
.78
2.34
1.50
13.15
3.78
July '53-Mar. '67..
123 Canada -industrial production
Jan. '53-Sep. '65..
122. United Kingdom, industrial production
121. OECD European countries, industrial production. . . Jan. '53-Sep. '65..
Jan. '53-Sep. '65..
126. France, industrial production
Jan. '53-Sep. '65..
125, West Germany, industrial production
Jan. '53-Sep. '65..
128. Japan, industrial production
Jan. '53-Sep. '65..
127. Italy, industrial production
.89
1.08
.86
1.45
1.51
1.73
1.50
.68
1.02
.77
1.38
1.33
1.23
1.40
.57
.42
,49
.62
.66
1.22
.72
1.19
2.41
1.55
2.24
2.02
1.01
1.96
2
3
2
3
3
2
3
.53
.86
.87
.84
.64
.47
.67
2.30
2.58
3.62
2.67
2.71
3.38
2.49
1.45
1.48
1.73
1.45
1.62
1.37
1.69
10.63
10.13
25.33
16.89
19.00
13.82
16.89
4.22
5.17
|5.81
6.00
5.00
5.21
4.84
.25
.46
.52
.32
.81
.34
.31
.50
.45
.37
.74
.35
.18
.27
.39
.22
.39
.31
1.71
1.81
1.14
1.64
1.91
1.14
2
3
2
3
3
2
.95
.73
.59
.74
.68
.61
9.11
6.41
6.92
8.24
3.09
19.22
1.99
1.68
1.54
2.01
1.66
1.80
10.81
15.73
8.65
12.36
10.81
8.24
12.29
9.00
7.48
12.21
7.12
24.57
2.78
3.14
3.95
3.30
3.60
3.80
2.15
2.50
3.30
2.00
2.43
3.01
1.61
1.67
1.88
2.33
2,28
1.90
1,34
1.49
1.75
.86
1.07
1.58
2
2
3
1
2
3
.87
.91
.65
.86
.64
.73
3.20
2.58
2.47
3.53
3.26
2.44
1.77
1.73
1.66
1.84
1,68
1.84
10.81
7.86
7.52
7.52
7.21
9.11
3.91
3.66
4.17
3.53
4.53
5.03
INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS
133
132
136
135
138
137
Canada consumer prices
United Kingdom consumer prices
France consumer prices
West Germany consumer prices
Japan consumer prices
Italy consumer prices
Jan.
Jan.
Jan.
Jan.
Jan.
Jan.
'53-June'67..
'53-June '67..
'53-June '67. .
'53-June '67. '53-June '67. '53-June '67..
143
142
146
145
Canada stock prices
United Kingdom stock prices
France stock prices
West Germany stock prices
Jan.
Jan.
Jan.
Jan.
Jan.
Jan.
' 53-June '67
'53-June '67
'53-June '67
'53-June '67
'53-June '67
'53-June'67
147. Italv. stock orices
.
See footnotes and definitions of measures at end of part 1.
69
Appendix C.-AVERAGE CHANGES AND RELATED MEASURES FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES-Continued
Part 1.-Average Percentage Changes-Continued
Period
covered
Quarterly series
i/c
c
T
Cl
QCD
I/C
for
QCD
span
Average duration of run
(ADR)
Cl
1
C
QCD
QUARTERLY SERIES
LEADING INDICATORS
11. New capital appropriations, manufacturing
*16. Corporate profits after taxes
22. Ratio, profits to income originating,
corporate all industries
18. Profits per dollar of sales, manufacturing
110. Total private borrowing
IQ'53-IVQ'66 .... 9.66
|Q'53-|Q'66
5.56
4.78
2.95
7.18
4.26
.67
.69
l
1
.67
.69
3.06
3.06
1.28
1.27
3,44
5.20
3.06
3.06
4.18
IQ'53-IQ'66
IQ ( 53-IVQ'66.... 5.71
IQ'53-1VQ'66.... 10.97
2.69
3.60
6.31
2.99
3.70
7.99
.90
.97
.79
l
l
l
.90
.97
.79
2.36
2.50
2.20
1.30
1.31
1.22
6.50
4.23
3.67
2.36
2.50
2.20
1.33
1.33
1.21
1.34
7.43
5.78
10.40
6.11
5.78
3.47
10.40
4.23
ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
49.
*50.
57.
97.
GNP in current dollars
GNP in 1958 dollars
Final, sales
Backlog of capital appropriations, manufacturing.
|Q'53-IQ'66
|Q'53-|Q'66
IQ'53-IQ'66
IQ'53-IVQ'66....
1.54
1.28
1.37
5.58
.34
.35
.30
.85
1.45
1.14
1.32
5.45
.24
.31
.23
.16
1
1
1
1
5.78
.24
.31 3.47
.23 10.40
.16
4.23
IQ'53-IIIQ'65,...
3.21
.77
2.99
.26
l
.26
5.56
1.47
5.56
f
IQ'53-IVQ'66....
IQ'53-I1IQ'65. ...
.85
1.99
.40
.96
.69
1.80
.57
.54
1
1
.57
.54
2.89
2.36
1.28
1.47
4.2.3
3.33
2.89
2.38
IQ'53-IIQ'67. ....
IQ(53-IIQ'67. ....
1Q'53-IVQ'66 ? ...
3.06
3.58
2.34
1.76
2.69
.87
2.41
2.06
1.89
.73
1.31
.46
1
2
1
.73
.50
.46
2.28
1.78
2.62
1.30
1.24
1.34
3.35
4.75
4.58
2.28
2.80
2.62
1Q'53-NQ ( 6Z....
2.21
.87
1,79
.49
1
.49
2.85
1.42
3.80
2.85
IQ'53-IVQ'6B....
IQ'56-IQ'67
8.54
3.64
1.57
.97
2
1
.57
.97
1.57
2.10
1.28
1.33
3.67
4.40
3 . 18
2.10
LAGGING INDICATORS
*61. Business expenditures, new plant and
eQuipment
68. Labor cost (cur. dol.) per unit of gross product
(1958 dol.), nonfinancial corporations
*67. Bank rates on short-term business loans
j.56
OTHER SELECTED U.S. SERIES
83. Federal cash receipts from public
82. Federal cash payments to public
101. National defense purchases, current dollars ....
U.S. SERIES UNDER CONSIDERATION
850. Ratio output to capacity mfg
854. Ratio, personal saving to disposable
personal income
857. Vacancy rate in total rental housing
4.45
2.36
6.98
2.28
•^Series included in the 1966 NBER "short list" of 25 indicators.
1
Not shown for series when MOD is "6" or more.
BRIEF DEFINITIONS OF MEASURES SHOWN IN PART 1
The following are brief definitions of the measures shown
in part 1 of this table. More complete explanations appear in
Electronic Computers and Business Indicators, by Julius
Shiskin, issued as Occasional Paper 57 by the National Bureau
of Economic Research, 1957 (reprinted from Journal of
Business. October 1957).
"Cl" is the average month-to-month (or quarter-toquarter) percentage change, without regard to sign, in the
seasonally adjusted series.
"P is the same for the irregular component, obtained by
dividing the cyclical component into the seasonally adjusted
series.
"C" is the same for the cyclical component^ a smooth,
flexible moving average of the seasonally adjusted series.
"MCD* (months for cyclical dominance) provides an estimate of the appropriate time span over which to observe
70
cyclical movements in a monthly series. It is small for smooth
series and large for irregular series. In deriving MCD, percentage changes are computed separately for the irregular
component and the cyclical component over 1-month spans
(Jan.-Feb., Feb.-Mar.,etc.), 2-month spans (Jan.-Mar., Feb.Apr., etc.), up to 12-month spans. Averages, without regard
to sign, are then computed for the changes over each span.
MCD is the shortest span in months for which the average
percentage change (without regard to sign) in the cyclical
component is larger than the average percentage change
(without regard to sign) in the irregular component, and
remains so. Thus, it indicates the point at which fluctuations
in the seasonally adjusted series become dominated by
cyclical rather than irregular movements. All series with an
MCD greater than "5" are shown as "6".
Similarly, "QCD" provides an estimate of the appropriate
time span over which to observe cyclical movements in
quarterly series. It is the shortest span (in quarters) for
which the average percentage change (without regard to sign)
BRIEF DEFINITIONS OF MEASURES SHOWN IN PART 1—Continued
in the cyclical component is larger than the average percentage change (without regard to sign) in the irregular
component, and remains so.
"l/C"is a measure of the relative smoothness (small values)
or irregularity (large values) of the seasonally adjusted series.
For monthly series, it is shown for 1-month spans and for
spans of the period of MCB. When MCD is "6", nq_I/C ratio is
shown for the MCD period. For quarterly series, I/C is shown
for 1-quarter spans and QCD spans.
"Average Duration of Run" (ADR) is another measure of
smoothness and is equal to the average number of consecutive
monthly changes in the same direction in any series of observations. When there is no change between 2 months, a change
in the same direction as the preceding change is assumed. The
ADR is shown for the seasonally adjusted series CI, irregular
component I, cyclical component C, and the MCD curve. The
MCD curve is an unweighted moving average (with the number
of terms equal to MCD) of the seasonally ad justed series.
A comparison of these measures of ADR with the expected
ADR of a random series gives an indication of whether the
changes approximate those of a random series. Over 1-month
intervals in a random series, the expected value of the ADR is
1.5. The actual value of ADR falls between 1.36 and 1.75 about
95 percent of the time. Over 1-month intervals in a moving
average (MCD) of a random series, the expected value of ADR
is 2.0. For example, the ADR of CI is 1.69 for the series on
average weekly initial claims, State unemployment insurance
(series 5). This indicates that 1-month changes in the seasonally adjusted series, on the average, reverse sign about
as often as expected in a random series. The ADR measures
shown in the next two columns, 1.42 for I and 12.67 for C,
suggest that the seasonally adjusted series has been
successfully separated into an essentially random component
and a cyclical (nonrandom) component. Finally, ADR is 3.97
for the MCD moving average. This indicates that a 2-month
moving average of the seasonally adjusted series (2 months
being the MCD span) reverses direction, on the average,
about every 4 months. The increase in the ADR from 1.42
for CI to 3.97 for the MCD moving average indicates that,
for this series, month-to-month changes in the MCD moving
average usually reflect the underlying cyclical trend movements of the series, whereas the month-to-month changes in
the seasonally adjusted series usually do not.
Appendix C.-AVERAGE CHANGES AND RELATED MEASURES FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERlES-Continued
Part 2.-Average Unit Changes
Monthly series
Period
covered
Unit of
measure
CI
CI
1
5
.98
1.51
.29 4.97
.13 3.51
6
4
t1)
.98
C
1
Average duration of run
(ADR)
I/C
for
MCD
span
I/C
MCD
C
MCD
1.43
9.06
2.65
1.67
1.69
1.50
1,62
6.08
7.60
3.00
3.10
MONTHLY SERIES
LEADING INDICATORS
*31. Change in book value, manufacturing
and trade inventories
20. Change in book value of manufacturers'
inventories of materials supplies
25. Change in unfilled orders, dur. goods industries.
98. Change in money supply and time deposits ....
85. Change in total money supply
33. Change in mortgage debt
*113. Change in consumer installment debt
112. Change in business loans
Jan. '53-Sep. '65 Ann. rate,
bil.doL
3.68
3.58
1.51
.48
1.44
.46
2.49
2.88
2.48
2.90
.34
.36
7.37
7.94
6
6
(M
t1)
1.45
1.42
1.37 10.81
1.40 10.81
2.85
2.85
1.31
.87
2.22
1.22
.79
2,10
.34 3.58
.31 2.56
.46 4.56
4
3
6
.93
.92
.90
1.52
1.65
1.60
1.39 11.92
1.49 10.13
1.66 8.00
2.69
3.13
4.15
Jan. '53-Sep. '65 Mil. dol. . 98.01
78.89
46.86
1.68
3
.68
2.03
1.60 10.13
3.49
Jan. '53-June'62 . . . d o . . . 58.44
55.87
17.28
3.23
3
.97
1.82
1.61
2.64
Jan. '53-Sep. '65 . . . d o . . .
Jan. r53-Sep. '65 BiLdol..
Jan. '53-June'67 Ann. rate,
percent .
Jan. '53-June'67 ... do. . .
Jan. '55-Dec.'66 Ann. rate,
bil. doL
Jan. '53-Sep. '65 . . . d o . . .
Aug. '59-Dec.'66 ... do
.74
.
4.87
ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
93. Free reserves
OTHER SELECTED U.S. SERIES
88. Merchandise trade balance
9.42
See footnotes and definitions of measures at end of part 2.
71
Appendix C.-AVERAGE CHANGES AND RELATED MEASURES FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES-Continued
Part 2 u -Average Unit Changes-Continued
Quarterly series
Period
covered
i/e
Unit of
measure
Cl
C
1
T/c
QCD
for
QCD
span
Average duration of run
(ADR)
QCD
Cl
1
C
1.73
1.37
4.00
^.83
*•'*
QUARTERLY SERIES
LEADING INDICATORS
21. Change in business inventories, all
industries
IQ'53-IQ'66
Ann. rate,
bil.dol... 2.28
1.43
1.37 . 1.04
2
.48
OTHER SELECTED U.S. SERIES
89. U.S. balance of payments:
a. Liquidity balance basis
b. Official settlements basis
95 Fed balance nat'l income and product acct
84. Federal cash surplus or deficit
\
IQ'53-IIIQ'65..«. MiLdol.... 340.64 225.64 216.94 1.04
IQ'60-IQ'66...,, ...do.... 492.17 302.66 286.13 1.06
2
2
.45
.55
1.67
2.00
1.25
1.41
3 . 13
?. . 67
IQ'53-1Q'66..... Ann rate
bil.dol... 2.50
IQ'53-NQ'67..... ...do.... 4.24
1
2
.76
.62
2.17
1.97
,1.37
3.7,1
2.8.9
*Series included in the 1966 NBER "short list" of 25 indicators.
1.37
3.02
1.81
2.24
.76
1.35
1.39
2,72
2. 17
^.33
1
Not shown for series when MCD is "6" or more.
BRIEF DEFINITIONS OF MEASURES SHOWN IN PART 2
The measures in part 2 are computed by an additive
method to avoid the distortion caused by zero and negative
data.
Thus, "Cl" is the average month-to-month (or quarterto-quarter) change in the seasonally adjusted series. This
average is computed without regard to sign and is expressed
in the same unit of measure as the series itself.
72
"Cw is the same for the cyclical component, which is a
moving average of the seasonally adjusted series,
'T is the same for the irregular component, which is
determined by subtracting the cyclical component from the
seasonally adjusted series,
All other measures shown in part 2 have the same meaning
as in part 1.
Appendix D.—CURRENT ADJUSTMENT FACTORS FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES (NOVEMBER 1966 TO DECEMBER 1967)
1966
19(37
Series
5. Average weekly initial claims, State unemployment
insurance
13. New business incorporations1
14 Liabilities of business failures
18. Prbfi'ts per dollar of sales, manufacturing2.
30 Nonagricultural placements all industries1
33. Net change in mortgage debt held by financial
institutions and life insurance companies 3
37. Purchased materials,'percent of companies
reporting higher inventories
39. Delinquency rate, 30 days and over, total
installment loans 4
72 Commercial and industrial loans outstanding
90. Defense Department obligations, procurement
Apr.
May
146.3 109.1
112.0
95.2
92.7
91.5
98.5
79.2
117.2
106.1
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
81.2
106.2
95.9
85.7
99.7
76.9
88,1
86.8
104.4
100.4 120.0 113.1
106.1
110.8 100 9
83 3
113.1
113 4 118 4 113 8
105.3
139.0
86.3
99.3
91.3
99.8
83.2
96.7
80.2
-96.
309.
88 7
89 8 101.9 106.6 107.7 114.4
107.8 101.6 100 3
109.5
92.1
91.2
100.0 101.7
88 2 100 2
112 Change in business loans 5
301 Nonagricultural job openings unfilled
oq q
on q
QQ Q
102.0 109.6
82.3
-336.
07 p
91 6
78.4
92.6
-390.
-13.
1
9,
25.
91.9
110.3
100.7
153.
135.
99 o
100.7
95 3 200 1
101.3 99.9
67 8 101 1 105 0
99.9
91 9
Q? Q
80 0 100 1
82 6 96 4
90 0 i jc 7 109 1
90 1 184 2 94 4
i on Q
i nn "3
80 1 83 8
QQ
100.4
75 7
99.3
99.8
QQ
A
86 0
100.1 100.5 100.5 100.1
100.8
101.4
00 f.
93.7
97.4
109.4
79 8
862 Index of export orders nonelectrical
machinery
D34. Profits, manufacturing (FNCB) 6
Mar.
Dec.
91 Defense Department obligations total
92 Military contract awards in U.S
856 Ratio average earnings to consumer1prices
857. Vacancy rate in total rental housing
Feb.
Jan.
Nov.
QQ 1
91 6
i nn "3
i nn A
1 nn. O
Q^ ? 109 0 120 3
100.2
100.2 100.3
72.8
100.0
99.6
98.6
+18
96.7
151
Vi
11
97 g
96 1
87 0
98.8
97.3
98 8 100 1
99 $
99.3
QQ
07 c. 1 n? A
90 7 111 5
%
98.9
-JO
Q/
1
105 4 139 0
86 3 99 3
90 6
Qq p
QC
C
on 9
-98
•an c
88 4
do Q
109.4
O
92 9
o
94 3
im 7
88 2 100 2
QQ Q
QQ
Q
79 7
Q7
p
91 8
99 9 100 8
q-5 Q Qf| 1
99.9
99 7 100 1 100 5
101.4
QQ
QO
99.3
;
Dec.
99.7
i nn ? 99 5 99 2 99 4 99 g.
irv, ^ 101 8 111 9 130 2 103 4
i m ^ i n^ Pi nz. Q"i m ii nn L. i nn £ 94 4
15
96 2
Nov.
f.
0
+ ft
QO
Q
QQ 1
...
* *.
NOTE: These data are not published by the source agency in seasonally adjusted form. Seasonal adjustments were made by the Bureau of the Census or the National
Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. They are kept current by the Bureau of the Census. Seasonally adjusted data prepared by the source agency will be substituted whenever
they are published. Fora description of the method used to compute these jactors, see Bureau of the Census Technical Paper No. 15, The X-11 Variant of the Census Method
II Seasonal Adjustment Program.
1
Factors are products of seasonal and trading-day factors.
Seasonally adjusted data resulting from the application of these
combined factors may differ slightly from those obtained by separate applications of seasonal and trading-day factors due to
rounding.
2
Quarterly series; figures are placed in middle month of quarter.
3
These quantities, in millions of dollars, are to be subtracted from the month-to-month net change in the unadjusted monthly
totals to yield the seasonally adjusted net change. They were computed by the additive version of the X-11 variant of the Census
Method 31 seasonal adjustment program.
^Bimonthly-series. Data are for even-numbered months (February, April, June, etc.).
5
Factors apply to monthly totals before month-to-month changes are computed.
6
l-quarter diffusion index:
Figures are placed on the 1st month of the quarter. The unadjusted diffusion index is computed
and the factors, computed by the additive version of the X-11 variant of the Census Method IE. seasonal adjustment program, are
subtracted to yield the seasonally adjusted index.
73
Appendix E.-PERCENT CHANGE FOR SELECTED SERIES OVER CONTRACTION AND EXPANSION PERIODS OF BUSINESS CYCLES: 1920 TO 1961
*43, Unemployment rate, total
Percent change: Reference peak to reference trough
Contractions:
Reference peak to
reference trough
Jan.
May
Oct.
Aug.
May
1920-July 1921
1923-July 1924
1926-Nov. 1927
1929-Mar. 1933
1937-June 1938
Feb
Nov
July
July
May
1945-Oct.
1948-Oct
1953-Aug
1957- Apr
1960-Feb
1945^
1949
1954 5
1958
1961
Median:6
All contractions
Excluding postwar contractions .
4 contractions since 1948
*41. Employees
in nonagri. establishments
(Q)*
49. GNP
in current
dollars
(Q)1
(NA)
-31.6
-10.4
-31.6
-18.0
-5.9
-51.8
-31.7
(NA)
-0,3
+2.3
-28.0
-8.9
-19.7
-2.3
+0.4
-49.6
-11.9
-21.9
0.0
+0.9
-50.8
-10.9
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
-4.3
-1.9
0.0
-43.5
-17.3
+7.9
2+2.3
2
+2,2
+25.4
+8.8
-7.9
-5.1
-3.4
-4.0
-1.8
-31.4
-8.5
-9.1
-14.1
-5.7
(NA)
-1.6
-2.2
-3.4
-1.4
-10.9
-3.4
-0.8
-1.8
-0.2
-4.0
-4.7
0.0
+0.2
+0.9
(NA)
-7.5
-7.2
-6.8
-3.1
+8.6
-0.5
-0.5
-2.4
-2.7
+2.2
+4.1
+3.4
+3.2
+1.8
-5.7
-6.5
-3.7
-16.0
-16.0
-1.9
-2.1
-1.9
-2.8
-2.8
-1.3
-2.0
-2.4
+0.1
-7.0
-5.8
-7.0
-2,2
-2.6
-1.4
+3.3
+3.6
+3.3
(NA)
NA)
*47. Index
of industrial
production
-8.8
*50. GNP
in 1958
dollars
*52. Per- *816. Manufacturing
sonal
and trade
income
sales
*54. Sales
of retail
stores
*41. Employees
in nonagri. establishments
*47. Index
of industrial
production
Rate at
peak
Rate at
trough
2
2
2
4.0
*3.2
2
1.9
3
0.0
11.2
3
3.3
7.9
6.0
7.4
6.9
3.5
3,9
4.0
7.2
7.6
7.2
49. GNP
in current
dollars
(Q) 1
(NA)
+12.4
+12.6
+42.1
(NA)
+25.1
+14.7
+13.3
+73.9
+169.6
+29.6
+13.2
+12.2
+76.3
+157.3
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
+15.7
+9.9
+3.6
+69.2
+105.4
-3.6
2
-0.9
-14.2
-18.9
11.9
*5.5
2
4.1
25.4
20.0
*52. Per- *816. Manufacturing
sonal
and trade
income
sales
*54. Sales
of retail
stores
Change
in rate,
trough
to peak
Rate at
trough
July
July
Nov
Mar.
June
1921-May
1924-Oct.
1927-Aug
1933-May
1938-Feb.
1923
1926
1929
1937
19454,
(NA)
+40.2
+45.9
+64,2
+30.4
+24.1
+119.9
+183.3
Oct
Oct
Aug
Apr
1945-Nov
1949-July
1954-July
1958-May
1948
19535
1957
1960
+17.2
+17.8
+8.9
+6.9
+21.9
+50.0
+19.7
+ 25.2
+ 3.3
+28.8
+11.8
+11,4
+34.9
+44.1
+22.4
+15.1
+28.5
+41.4
+22.1
+13.3
(NA)
+50.0
+22.6
+16.2
+63.8
+ 25.6
+ 20.3
+11.9
+0.3
-5.3
-1.8
-2.3
3.3
7.9
6.0
7.4
Median:6
All expansions
Excluding wartime expansions . .
4 expansions since 1945
+17.5
+13.0
+13.0
+35.2
+26.6
+ 23.6
+12.3
+12.1
+11.6
+27.5
+20.9
+28.6
+26.7
+21.3
+25.3
+29.6
+19.4
(NA)
+ 20.5
+16.0
+23.0
-3.7
-2.6
-2,0
7,1
6.3
6.7
(NA)
(NA)
20.0
1.1
3.8
2.6
4.2
5.1
in 1958
dollars
(Q) 1
*50. GNP
11.9
*5.5
'4.1
25.4
*43. Unemployment rate, total
Percent change: Reference trough to reference peak
Expansions:
Reference trough to
reference peak
Change
in rate,
peak to
trough
2
-8.7
2
2
Rate at
peak
2
3.2
2
1.9
3.2
11.2
1,1
2 3
3
3.e
2.6
4.2
5,1
3.3
3.7
3,9
NOTE: For series with a "months for cyclical dominance" (MCD)oPr or "2" (series41,43,47,52,and816), the figure for the reference peak (trough) month is used as the
base. For series with an MCD of "3" or more (series 54), the average of the 3 months centered on the reference peak (trough) month is used as the base. The base
for quarterly series (series 49 and 50) is the reference peak (trough) quarter. See also MCD footnote to appendix C.
*Series included in the 1966 NBER "short list"of 25
indicators.
NA=Not available.
1
The most recent quarterly reference dates are as follows: 2d quarter 1958 (trough); 2d quarter 1960 (peak); and 1st quarter
1961 (trough). For earlier dates, see Business Cycle Indicators (NBER) vol. 1, p.670.
2
Based on average for the calendar year.
3
Differs from figure for same date in expansion (contraction) part of table because of change in series used.
4
World War II contraction or expansion period.
5
Korean War contraction or expansion period.
6
The median is an average of the middle 2 or 3 Items.
Source:
National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
74
Appendix F.-HISTORICAL DATA FOR SELECTED SERIES
Historical data and latest revisions are presented when available. See the Series Finding Guide for the publication date of the latest historical data for each series. Current
data are shown in tables 2 and 3. Data are seasonally adjusted.
Year
Jan.
Mar,
Feb.
121.
1948 . . . .
1949 ....
1950 ....
1951 . . . .
1952
1953 ....
1954 ....
1955 ....
1956
1957 ....
1958....
1959 ....
1960 ....
1961....
1962
1963,...
1964....
1965 ....
.* .
...
...
.. .
May
Apr.
June
...
.. *
...
•
...
.. .
...
...
..*
'75
76
...
.
.* .
.. .
76
...
* *•
•. .
70
71
72
72
72
...
73
•. •
74
77
84
91
95
99
99
78
86
89
97
99
100
77
86
91
96
100
100
79
86
92
96
98
102
79
87
92
97
98
103
80
88
93
97
98
103
81
87
94
98
98
104
81
88
93
98
99
105
82
89
82
90
94
99
98
106
94
97
99
109
112
113
120
124
127
141
144
113
113
119
125
131
114
120
126
134
141
147
115
121
126
133
115
120
127
135
141
147
116
121
128
136
142
148
117
121
119
124
126
140
146
120
125
130
140
146
142
147
80
83
77
84
74
79
80
83
82
88
92
95
97
100
98
102
92
95
96
100
97
103
91
94
95
100
97
103
93
97
97
100
97
105
95
100
96
98
97
107
94
99
97
100
98
108
95
100
96
97
99
109
110
112
113
117
125
128
110
113
113
118
111
111
113
111
110
112
111
111
111
119
114
119
112
120
124
126
128
125
128
126
130
111
110
112
122
127
130
1954
1955
1956
1957 ....
1958
1959 ....
91
95
"97
97
98
99
89
96
97
99
100
99
90
90
98
97
97
97
102
91
99
95
99
98
102
I960
110
111
110
110
123
131
110
111
111
112
124
129
110
112
112
113
124
128
111
110
113
115
124
129
125.
118
124
129
137
144
151
71
77
83
83
83
88
1952 ....
1953 ....
127
126
136
143
150
117
121
127
138
144
150
70
75
83
83
81
89
69
76
79
85
80
82
124
84
90
94
98
99
110
71
74
81
84
79
86
68
75
80
83
80
85
111
111
112
114
147
83
90
94
, 98
99
109
69
76
80
84
78
84
69
73
80
84
80
84
98
96
97
101
98
142
69
81
129
32
56
62
68
75
86
93
97
98
108
76
86
92
98
98
111
77
88
93
98
100
110
79
88
92
98
100
111
119
125
134
138
147
156
121
124
131
139
150
157
120
125
133
141
151
156
122
128
134
139
151
155
23
37
45
56
58
63
22
37
46
56
59
65
26
38
48
56
59
66
27
39
50
56
60
67
28
39
50
55
60
67
29
39
1952 ....
1953 ....
22
36
44
56
58
64
1954 ....
1955
1956 '....
1957
1958
1959 ....
67
79
89
94
98
100
69
80
86
96
98
100
69
81
88
93
99
102
71
80
90
96
97
100
72
83
91
96
• 97
107
73
84
90
96
98
104
73
84
93
96
98
104
74
86
93
96
100
108
1960 ....
1961 ....
1962
1963
1964 ....
1965 ....
115
124
126
129
141
156
112
125
129
128
143
154
115
127
127
134
147
152
116
125
129
133
141
154
115
124
129
133
149
155
118
123
131
139
145
155
119
125
130
134
147
153
117
125
132
137
147
155
131
41
54
57
61
70
22
35
43
56
58
64
1951....
129
30
40
52
58
63
68
35
41
55
58
62
22
112
122
West Germany— index of industrial production (1957-59=100)
20
35
41
54
58
61
1948 ....
1 3HO » • » «
1949
1950 ....
76
United Kingdom— index of industrial production (1957-59=100)
71
74
79
85
83
84
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965 ....
...
70
112
119
122
126
139
146
Dec.
Nov.
...
68
72
78
84
83
83
1951....
Oct.
...
68
71
78
83
83
83
1950 ....
Sept.
OECD European countries — index of industrial production (1957-59=100)
122.
1948....
1949,....
Aug.
July
52
(November 196?)
75
Appendix F.-HISTORICAL DATA FOR SELECTED SERIES-Continued
Historical data and latest revisions are presented when available. See the Series Finding Guide for the publication date of the latest historical data for each series. Current
data are shown in tables 2 and 3. Data are seasonally adjusted.
Year
Jan.
126.
48
55
58
60
66
60
51
57
57
62
65
61
61
65
63
1954 ....
1955 ....
1956 ....
1957 ....
1958 ....
1959 ....
68
74
85
94
102
98
67
74
83
94
103
98
68
75
86
95
103
99
1960 . . . .
107
1961....
1962....
115
108
116
123
124
140
139
117
124
116
140
140
122
125
139
1963 . . . .
1964 . . . .
1965 ....
138
July
Sept.
Aug.
Nov.
Oct.
Dec.
France— index of industrial production (1957-59=100)
52
59
52
1948 . . . .
1949 ....
1950 ....
1951 ....
1952 ....
1953 ....
June
May
Apr.
Mar.
Feb.
108
53
59
56
62
64
63
53
59
58
63
61
65
53
60
58
63
63
65
53
59
59
65
63
64
54
59
60
64
64
60
70
75
87
94
72
77
89
96
102
71
76
90
98
102
101
72
75
89
96
101
101
70
77
90
98
101
102
109
116
109
117
123
124
111
117
123
132
128
142
141
127.
131
140
141
102
141
142
101
102
112
119
125
134
140
143
112
119
125
134
140
143
47
58
63
65
63
66
52
58
63
63
64
67
53
58
63
63
61
70
77
91
99
100
104
72
79
92
98
100
105
73
81
92
100
99
106
74
79
93
101
98
107
114
119
126
135
141
144
114
119
127
136
141
146
115
119
127
135
141
147
115
123
126
138
138
150
52
59
61
65
63
66
73
Italy—index of industrial production (1957-59=100)
1951....
1952 ....
1953 ....
41
49
51
60
62
66
43
49
52
62
62
66
44
47
53
63
62
67
44
47
54
63
62
67
47
51
54
63
64
65
44
53
55
62
63
67
44
51
54
63
63
68
51
52
57
62
64
69
49
51
57
62
65
68
49
51
58
60
65
71
50
51
59
60
66
73
49
50
61
61
65
73
1954 ....
1955 ....
1956 ....
1957 ....
1958 ....
,1959 ....
73
78
84
92
97
101
73
79
81
93
95
104
73
81
85
93
95
105
74
79
87
95
95
105
73
80
88
94
95
105
72
82
88
95
97
104
75
82
89
96
98
105
75
82
88
96
98
109
77
82
91
97
99
111
77
82
91
93
100
113
77
84
89
95
101
116
77
84
91
96
101
118
1960 . . . .
1961 ....
1962 ....
1963 ....
1964 ....
1965 ....
117
130
149
159
173
167
120
133
150
155
168
169
122
122
134
150
124
135
152
164
167
175
127
137
147
166
164
176
127
140
153
165
167
178
127
140
153
167
157
175
129
141
150
171
166
178
127
144
153
171
165
178
128
146
156
170
167
183
128
147
159
169
167
182
1948 ....
1949 ....
1950 ....
505.
133
148
160
171
166
164
169
169
Machinery and equipment sales and business construction expenditures (Ann. rate, bil. dol.)
1948 ....
1949 ....
1950 ....
1951 ....
1952 ....
1953 ....
33 '.49
33*.85
33.28
34*04
33! 70
32^31
32*82
31^30
31*39
31^93
3l! 02
30^48
1954 ....
1955 ....
1956 ....
1957 ....
1958 . . . .
1959 . . . .
31.49
29.70
34.51
41.77
38.04
36.71
30.46
31.14
35.07
42.65
36.64
37.56
29.39
31.75
35.56
41.47
36.47
37.99
28.90
31.60
38.02
41.29
35.24
38.39
28.48
32.37
38.51
40.89
34.63
39.50
28.27
32.82
39.99
40.68
35.45
39.79
29.26
32.26
39.50
39.99
34.32
28.29
33.24
41.31
40.24
28.36
34.21
39.34
40.39
35.26
40.74
27.34
34.20
40.62
40.62
35.07
40.50
28.22
34.39
41.84
40.01
36.04
40.17
29.06
34.93
42.51
38.09
35.74
41.08
1960 ....
1961 ....
1962
1963 ....
1964 . . . .
1965 - . . .
41.00
40. 63
42.67
44.60
48.95
55.14
40.62
40.46
43.36
44-. 82
48.36
55.23
41.20
40.12
44.36
44.67
49.07
57.53
41.62
40.20
44.98
45.86
49.49
57.48
41.92
40.21
45.91
46.65
50.55
58.05
41.59
40.51
45.88
46.14
51.02
57.90
42.53
40.30
45.73
47.50
53.78
60.00
41.31
42.26
45.52
47.26
52.16
60.16
40.97
42.60
40.65
42.64
44.95
47.29
53.18
62.19
41.08
43.33
44.16
47.92
54.82
64-17
39.51
41.24
35.16
40.26
41.84
46.33
47.00
51.21
58.19
45.11
48.08
52.72
61.10
(November 196?)
76
Appendix F.-HISTORICAL DATA FOR SELECTED SERIES-Continued
Historical data and latest revisions are presented when available. See the Series Finding Guide for the publication date of the latest historical data for each series. Current
data are shown in tables 2 and 3. Data are seasonally adjusted.
Year
Feb.
Jan.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
Dec.
D41, Diffusion index for Number of employees in nonagricultural estab. — 30 industries ( 1-month span)
1948 ....
1949 ....
1950 ....
1951 ....
1952....
1953 ....
1954 ....
1955 ....
1956 ....
1957 ....
1958 ....
1959 ....
I960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965 ....
20.0
68.3
86.7
58.3
71.7
55.0
26.7
83.3
71.7
56.7
78.3
38.3
36.7
85.0
71.7
58.3
63.3
68.3
25.0
83.3
46.7
53.3
60.0
80.0
20.0
81.7
61.7
66.7
46.7
68.3
23.3
91.7
45.0
51.7
45.0
46.7
53.3
96.7
36.7
73.3
26.7
48.3
5.0
53.3
90.0
61.7
75.0
20.0
71.7
68.3
28.3
80.0
66.7
51.7
8.3
75.0
28.3
96.7
A6.7
46.7
16.7
91.7
23.3
76.7
63.3
36.7
20.0
91.7
28.3
88.3
40.0
20.0
*40.0
80.0
26.7
91.7.
31.7
35.0
65.0
66.7
41.7
51.7
25.0
41.7
63.3
66.7
43.3
63.3
80.0
46.7
80.0
46.7
60.0
71.7
33.3
36.7
90.0
73.3
31.7
76.7
36.7
60.0
70.0
70.0
71.7
83.3
51.7
56.7
83.3
68.3
68.3
61.7
33.3
80.0
66.7
73.3
60.0
66.7
30.0
86.7
60.0
56.7
70.0
81.7
40.0
68.3
53.3
66.7
66.7
88.3
38.3
81.7
63.3
60.0
70.0
73.3
33.3
a. 7
18.3
96.7
75.0
a. 7
56.7
66.7
55.0
73.3
a. 7
73.3
78.3
35.0
53.3
75.0
46.7
86.7
21.7
40.0
25.0
28.3
60.0
71.7
68.3
80.0
23.3
63.3
61.7
76.7
78.3
28.3
66.7
31.7
83.3
68.3
41.7
21.7
90.0
60.0
61.7
75.0
66.7
18.3
78.3
75.0
26.7
60.0
55.0
61.7
86.7
73.3
20.0
81.7
48.3
71.7
58.3
88.3
25.0
81.7
35.0
43.3
83.3
91.7
18.3
68.3
41.7
65.0
76.7
86.7
70.0
76.7
35.0
81.7
25.0
43.3
66.7
68.3
88.3
D41. Diffusion index for Number of employees in nonagricultural estab. — 30 industries {6-month span)
1948 . . . .
1949 ....
1950 ....
1951 ....
1952 ....
1953 ....
16/7
73.3
76.7
66.7
86.7
1954
1955
1956
1957 ....
1958 ....
.1959 ....
16.7
88.3
71.7
50.0
13.3
95.0
1960 . . . .
1961
1962
1963
1964 ....
1965 ....
73.3
20.0
86.7
58.3
63.3
81,7
-
43.3
25.0
55.0
96.7
50.0
90.0
16.7
16.7
56.7
90.0
50.0
86.7
20.0
15.0
60.0
80.0
73.3
85.0
20.0
83.3
83.3
60.0
13.3
96.7
75.0
90.0
76.7
60.0
11.7
95.0
58.3
71.7
80.0
63.3
18.3
93.3
65.0
20.0
81.7
38.3
56.7
91.7
90.0
20.0
83.3
46.7
50.0
83.3
93.3
21.7
85.0
41.7
68.3
86.7
88.3
20,0
80.0
56.7
68.3
90.0
95.0
10.0
93.3
76.7
63.3
71.7
11.7
83.3
73.3
58.3
70.0
53.3
15.0
93.3
63.3
55.0
68.3
55.0
20.0
98.3
46.7
63.3
55.0
53.3
20.0
100.0
40.0
83.3
33.3
70.0
33.3
100.0
38.3
85.0
26.7
68.3
33.3
93.3
48.3
96.7
30.0
15.0
83.3
63.3
38.3
15.0
23.3
93.3
36.7
23.3
13.3
88.3
16.7
95.0
46.7
25.0
21.7
88.3
18.3
81.7
45.0
20.0
66.7
73.3
40.0
80.0
41.7
16.7
66.7
58.3
56.7
78.3
51.7
16.7
86.7
51.7
60.0
76.7
55.0
11.7
91.7
91.7
13.3
93.3
56.7
28.3
15.0
96.7
75.0
28.3
88.3
70.0
71.7
75.0
4.8.3
65.0
88.3
68.3
73.3
78.3
38.3
76.7
73.3
65.0
85.0
88.3
28.3
83.3
80.0
70.0
81.7
90.0
33.3
88.3
76.7
66.7
86.7
86.7
23.3
80.0
55.0
66.7
80.0
90.0
20.0
88.3
48.3
50.0
93.3
90.0
50.0
96.7
48.3
93.3
20.0
68.3
(November 1967)
77
INDEX
SERIES FINDING GUIDE
(PAGE NUMBERS. See table of contents (page i) for chart, table, and appendix titles)
Series titles by economic process and other groupings
{See complete titles and sources on back cover)
Timing
classification
Charts
1
'Tables
2
1
2
3
Appendixes
4
F
B
C
D
E
Page
Issue
1. EMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT
*1
*30.
2
5
3
301.
46.
511.
*41.
42.
*43.
45.
40
*5Q2.
Avg workweek production workers mfg.
Nonagricultural placements all indus
Accession rate manufacturing
Initial claims State unemploy insurance
Layoff rate manufacturing
Nonagri. job openings unfilled
Help-wanted advertising
L
L
L
L
L
C
C
Man-hours in nonagri. establishments
Employees in nonagri. establishments
Total nonagricultural employment
Unemployment rate, total
Avg. weekly insured unemploy. rate, State
Unemployment rate married males
Unemploy rate 15 weeks and over
C
C
C
C
C
.. .
.. .
. .
. ..
...
...
...
.
...
...
...
c .. .
Ls. - .
9
9
9
9
9
17
17
6
6
6
6
6
7
7
33
33
33
33
33
38
38
17
17
17
18
18
18
22
7
7
7
7
7
7
7
38
38
38
38
38
38
41
66-7
66-7
66-7
66-7
66-7
68
68
68
68
68
68
68
77
66
76
66
76
76
66
73
73
73
68
68
68
68
68
68
69
74
74
Oct.
'67
1
Oct. '63
Sept. '67
July '63 1
Sept. '67
Apr. '67
Feb. '64
1
77
77
72
72
66
72
76
Apr. '67
Oct.
'67
Feb. '67
Feb.
'67
1
Mar. '64
Feb.
'67
Apr. '67
73
73
70
74
74
77
74
72
July
July
Sept.
July
July
II. PRODUCTION, INCOME, CONSUMPTION, AND TRADE
49
*50
*47.
*52.
53.
*816.
57.
*54.
GNP in current dollars
GNP in 1958 dollars
Industrial production
Personal income
Wages and salaries, mining, mfg., constr.
Manufacturing and trade sales
Final sales
Sales of retail stores
c . ..
c ...
c...
c ...
c ...
c ...
c ...
c ...
18
18
18
7
7
7
19
19
19
19
19
7
7
7
7
7
39
39
39
39
39
39
39
39
L
L
L
L
L
L
L
...
.. .
.-.
..
...
...
...
10
10
10
10
10
11
11
6
6
6
6
6
6
6
33
33
34
34
34
34
34
L .. .
L ...
L .. .
C ...
C . ..
Lfi. . .
Lg...
11
11
11
20
20
22
22
6
6
6
7
7
7
7
34
34
34
40
40
41
41
L .. .
L .. .
L
L .. .
L ...
L ...
L .. .
Lg...
Lg...
12
12
12
12
12
13
13
22
22
6
6
6
6
6
6
6
7
7
35
35
35
35
35
35
35
41
41
66-7
66-7
66-7
66-7
66-7
74
74
74
70
70
68
68
68
68
70
68
74
74
74
'67
'67
'64
'67
'67
Apr. '67
July '67
Apr. '66
III. FIXED CAPITAL INVESTMENT
*38.
13
*6
94.
*10.
11.
24.
Index of net business formation
New business incorporations
New orders durable goods industries. . •
Construction contracts, value
Contracts and orders, plant and equipment
New capital appropriations, mfg.
New orders, mach. and equip, industries
9.
7.
*29.
96.
97.
*61
505.
Construction contracts, comm. and indus
Private nonfarm housing starts
New building permits, private housing
Unfilled orders, durable goods industries
Backlog of capital appropriations, mfg
Bus expenditures new plant and equip
Mach. and equip, sales and bus. constr. expend
< . . .••
-
66-7
66-7
-
-
66-7
66-7
66-7
68
68
68
68
68
70
68
73
74
66
78
78
76
66
June '65
Aug.
1
'63
June '67
May '67
Aug.
'67
1
Dec. '63
68
68
68
68
70
70
69
78
76
74
66
77
65
78
' May '67
Aug.
'67
June '65
June f 64
Aug.
'67
June ! 64
Nov.
'67
72
71
68
71
68
68
71
69
69
72
72
68
64
65
66
66
73
72
July '67
'66
June '631
June '64
June '64
IV. INVENTORIES AND INVENTORY INVESTMENT
21
*31
37
20
26.
32.
25
*71.
65.
Change in business inventories
Change mfg and trade inventories
Purchased materials higher inventories
Change mtls. and supplies inventories
Buying policy, production materials
Vendor performance, slower deliveries
Change in unfilled orders durable goods
Book 1value, mfg. and trade inventories
Mfrs. inventories, finished goods, book value
*$eries preceded by an asterisk (*) are on the 1966 NBER "short list" of 25 indicators.
66-7
66-7
L'- leading C = roughly coincident, Lg= lagging.
73
Nov.
1
Mar. '64
1
Dec. '63
Apr. '67
Apr. '67
* Appendix G in this issue.
79
SERIES FINDING GUIDE-Continued
(PAGE NUMBERS. See table of contents (page i) for chart, table, and appendix titles)
Series titles by economic process and other groupings
(See complete titles and sources on back cover)
Charts
Timing
classification
Appendixes
Tables
Page
Issue
V. PRICES, COSTS, AND PROFITS
:f:
23.
"19.
19.
*16.
22.
18.
*17.
55.
58.
68.
*62.
81.
Industrial-materials prices
Stock prices, 500 common stocks (1941-43--10)
Stock prices, 500 common stocks (1957-59 = 100)
Corporate profits after taxes
Ratio, profits' to income originating, corporate
Profits per dollar of sales, mfg
Ratio, price to unit labor cost, mfg
Wholesale price index, industrial commodities.
Wholesale price index, manufactured goods
Labor cost per unit of gross product, nonfin. corporations
Labor cost per unit of output, mfg
Consumer prices
L ...
L ...
L..
L.
L.
L ...
L ...
C ...
C ...
Lg...
Lg...
U.
13
13
32
66-7
66-7
68-9
66-7
14
14
20
66-7
20
2
68
68
70
70
70
70
68
68
68
70
69
69
3
23
66-7
L ...
L ...
L ...
L ...
L ...
L ...
L ,..
L •••
15
15
15
15
15
16
16
16
71
71
71
66-7 71
71
70
68
68
C ...
C ...
C ...
C ...
C ...
Lg...
Lg...
Lg...
Lg...
21
21
21
21
21
23
23
23
23
71
68
68
68
68
69
66-7 69
66-7 70
69
U ...
U ...
U ...
U ..
U ...
U ...
U ..
24
24
24
72
72
71
69
69
69
69
73
66
66
77
72
73
71
72
73
72
75
75
73
Jan. '641
Apr. '64
Oct. '67
July '67
July '67
Apr. '67
'
July '67
Feb. '67
Apr. '67
July '67
July '67
Feb. '67
77
76
71
71
75
73
66
71
Sept. "67
Sept. '67
Apr. '67
July '64
Apr. '67
Feb. '67
Nov. '63X
Apr. '67
VI. MONEY AND CREDIT
98.
85.
33.
*113.
112.
110.
14.
39.
Change, money supply and time deposits
Change, total U.S. money supply
Change, mortgage debt
Change, consumer installment
debt
Change, business loans 22
Total private borrowing
Liabilities of business failures
Delinquency rate, instal. loans, 30 days and over
93. Free reserves
114. 'Treasury bill rate 2 2
116. Corporate bond yields2
115. Treasury bond yields 2
117. Municipal bond yields
66. Consumer installment debt
*72- Comm. and indus. loans outstanding
*67. Bank rates on short-term business
loans
118. Mortgage yields, residential2
VII.
73
73
73
73
66
71
72
72
72
70
73
70
72
Oct.
July
Aug.
July
July
Aug.
Apr.
Aug.
July
'64
'64
'66
'64
'64
'64
'67
»64
'64
79
79
74
73
77
78
74
June
June
Apr.
Apr.
Apr.
Apr.
Apr.
'67
'67
'67
'67
'67
'67
»67
73
76
78
78
78
76
70
70
66
76
July
Oct.
Oct.
Oct.
July
Sept.
Sept.
Oct.
Aug.
'67
'67
'67
'67
'67
'64
'64
'64
'67
73
73
77
77
77
78
78
78
79
79
July
July
July
July
July
July
July
July
67
67
67
'67
'67
'67
'67
'67
73
FOREIGN TRADE AND PAYMENTS
89. U.S. balance of payments:
a. Liquidity balance basis
b. Official settlements basis
88. Merchandise trade balance
86. Exports, excluding military aid
861. Export orders, durable goods, except motor vehicles
862. Export orders, nonelectric machinery
87. General imports
25
25
73
VIII. FEDERAL GOVERNMENT ACTIVITIES
95.
84.
83.
82.
101.
91.
90.
99.
92.
Fed. balance, nat'l. income and prod, account
Federal cash surplus or deficit
Federal cash receipts from public
Federal cash payments to public
National defense purchases, current dollars
Defense Department obligations, total
Defense Dept. obligations, procurement
New orders, defense products industries
Military contract awards in U.S
U ... 26
U.
U ... 26
U ... 26
U .,. 27
U ... 27
U ... 27
U•
U ... 27
72
72
70
70
70
69
69
69
69
U.
U,
U.
U.
U.
U.
U.
U.
70
69
69
69
70
69
69
70
73
73
U.S. SERIES UNDER CONSIDERATION
850.
851.
852.
853.
854.
855.
856.
857.
Ratio, output to capacity, mfg
Ratio, inventories to sales, mfg. and trade
Ratio, unfilled orders to shipments durable goods
Ratio, prod, of bus. equipment to consumer goods
Ratio, personal saving to disposable personal income ..
Ratio, nonagri. job openings unfi lied to unemployed....
Ratio, avg. earnings to consumer prices
Vacancy rate in total rental housing
•"Series preceded by an asterisk (*} are on the 1966 NBER "short list" of 25 indicators. U-teading, c-roughly coincident, Lg=lagging, U= unclassified ("other selected U.S. series,' "U.S. series under consideration" and "international comparisions"). 1 Appendix G in this issue. 2 A description of this series is contained in the July 1964 issue of BCD (appendix G).
80
SERIES FINDING GUIDE-Continued
(PAGE NUMBERS. See table of contents (page i) for chart, table, and appendix titles)
Series titles by economic process and other grouping
(See complete titles and sources on back cover)
Timing
classification
Charts
Tables
Appendixes
Page
Issue
INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS
123.
122.
126.
125.
128.
121.
127.
Canada index of industrial production
United Kingdom, index of industrial production ..
France, index of industrial production
'West Germany, index of industrial production
Japan, index of industrial production
OECD-Europe, index of industrial production
Italy, index of industrial production
U
U ....
U
U
U
U
U
30
30
30
30
30
30
30
46
46
46
46
46
46
46
69
69
69
69
69
69
69
76
77
78
77
68
77
78
July '67
Nov. '67
Nov. !67
Nov. '67
Oct. '64
Nov. '67
Nov. '67
133.
132.
136.'
135.
138.
137.
Canada, index of consumer prices
United Kingdom, index of consumer prices
France, index of consumer prices
West Germany, index of consumer prices
Japan, index of consumer prices
Italy, index of consumer prices
U
U
U ....
U
U ....
U
31
31
31
31
31
31
47
47
47
47
47
47
69
69
69
69
69
69
79
79
80
79
80
80
Oct. '67
Oct. '67
Oct. '67
Oct.''67
Oct. '67
Oct. '67
143.
142.
146.
145.
148.
147.
Canada, index of stock prices
United Kingdom, index of stock prices
France, index of stock prices
West Germany, index of stock prices
Japan, index of stock prices
Italy, index of stock prices
U
.U ....
U
U
U
U
32
32
32
32
32
32
48
43
48
48
48
48
69
69
69
69
69
69
81
81
82
81
82
82
Oct. '67
Oct. '67
Oct. '67
Oct. '67
Oct. '67
Oct. '67
83
72
77
69
72
72
73
Oct.
Apr.
Aug.
Oct.
Apr,
Apr.
79
73
78
73
70
70
68-9
69
Nov.
Apr.
Apr.
Apr.
Nov.
Nov.
Nov.
Nov.
DIFFUSION INDEXES
Dl.
D6.
Oil.
D34.
D19.
D23.
05.
Average workweek
New orders
Capital appropriations
Profits, mfg.
Stock prices
Industrial materials prices
Initial claims
-
51
51
51
51
51
51
51
54
54
54
55
55
55
55
041.
047.
058.
054.
D35.
036.
048.
061.
Employees in nonagri. establishments
Industrial production
Wholesale prices, mfg
Retail sales
Net sales, mfrs
New orders
Freight carloadings
New plant and equipment expenditures
-
52
52
52
52
53
53
53
53
56
56
56
56
57
57
57
57
-
59
60
60
61
61
62
63
73
'67'
'65
'67
'64
'65
'65
May '65
'67
'65
'67
'65
'64
'64
'64
'64
l> unclassified ("other selected U.S. series," "U.S. series under consideration,* and "international comparisons").
81
U.S. INCOME DISTRIBUTION
distribution
of income
changing?
T
he ever-changing pattern of the way America
earns its livelihood and divides its income is
the subject of the first in a new series of reports
of the nation's fact-finder, the Bureau of the
Census.
Titled "Income Distribution in the United
States," this in-depth study draws its data from
the 1960 Census of Population, one of the most
important single sources of information on social
trends in the United States, and makes comparisons with the past three decennial censuses.
Primary emphasis is on changes in income of
men in 116 different occupations and in the
income of families classified by the age and sex
of the family head, residence, and various other
characteristics. The study also contains a detailed
evaluation of the quality of income statistics collected in the 1960 census. Interpretation of these
Tentative titles for other volumes in the
1960 Census Monograph Series include:
• RURAL AMERICA
•
EDUCATION OF THE AMERICAN PEOPLE
• THE METROPOLITAN COMMUNITY
• CHANGING CHARACTERISTICS OF THE
NEGRO POPULATION
• THE AMERICAN FAMILY
• POPULATION OF THE UNITED STATES
IN THE 20TH CENTURY
findings has brought about a new understanding
of occupation levels and the inequality of income
distribution.
Herman P. Miller, author of Income Distribution in the United States, is Chief of the Population Division of the Bureau of the Census and a
recognized authority on income statistics. He is
the author of the 1950 Census Monograph, Income of the American People. Mr. Miller has also
written Rich Mant Poor Man and served as editor
of Historical Statistics of the United States,
Colonial Times to 1957 and Poverty American
Style.
Inaugurating the 1960 Census Monograph
Series, "Income Distribution" is published with
the cooperation of the Social Science Research
Council. 311 pp. (cloth) $2.25.
ORDER FROM: Superintendent of Documents
U.S. Government Printing Office
Washington, D,C. 20402
Or any U.S. Department of Commerce Field Office
Enclosed is $
(send only check, money order,
Supt. Docs, coupons, or use your Deposit Account
No.
—). Make check or money order payable to
Superintendent of Documents.
At $2.25 each, please send me
copies of
INCOME DISTRIBUTION IN THE UNITED STATES.
Name
Street address
To receive announcements of these forthcoming
books, write to the Publications Distribution Section,
Bureau of the Census, Washington, D.C. 20233
City, State, ZIP
Titles and Sources of Principal Business Cycle Series and Diffusion Indexes
The numbers assigned to the series are for identification purposes only and do not reflect series relationships or order.
"M" indicates monthly series; "Q" indicates quarterly series.
Data apply to the whole period except for series designated
by "EOM" (end of the month) or "EOQ" (end of the quarter).
The Roman numeral identifies the economic process group in
which a series is classified. (See Finding Guide.) Thus,
"(M, II)" indicates a monthly series classified in group II.
The general classification follows theapproach of the National
Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. The series preceded by
an asterisk (*) are included in the 1966 NBER "short list"
of 25 indicators.
36 Leading Indicators
24. Value of manufacturers' new orders, machinery and equipment industries (M,lll}.-Department of Commerce, Bureau
of the Census
25. Change in manufacturers' unfilled orders, durable goods
industries (IKI.IV).-Department of Commerce,, Bureau of
the Census
*29. Index of new private housing units authorized by local
building permits (M.lll).-Department of Commerce, Bureau
of the Census
53. Wage and salary income in mining, manufacturing, and
construction (M, 11) .-Department of Commerce, Office of
Business Economics
*30. Nonagricultural placements, all industries (M,I).-Department of Labor, Bureau of Employment Security; seasonal
adjustment by Bureau of the Census
*54. Sales of retail stores (M,ll).-Department of Commerce,
Bureau of the Census
Accession rate, manufacturing (M,l).-Department of Labor,
Bureau of Labor Statistics
32. Vendor performance, percent reporting slower deliveries
(M,IV.)..-Chicago Purchasing Agents Association; no seasonal adjustment
Layoff rate, manufacturing (M,l).-Department of Labor.
Bureau of Labor Statistics
j
Average weekly initial claims for unemployment insurance,
State programs (M,l).--Department of Labor, Bureau of
Employment Security; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of
the Census
33. Net change in mortgage debt held by financial institutions
and life insurance companies (M,VI).--Institute of Life
Insurance, Federal National Mortgage Association, National
Association of Mutual Savings Banks,, U.S. Savings and
Loan League, and Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System;seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census
and National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
Construction contracts awarded for commercial and industrial buildings,floor space{M,lll).--F.W. Dodge Corporation;
seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census and National
Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
Contracts and orders for plant and equipment (P/1,111).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census, and F.'vV.
Dodge Corporation; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the
Census and National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
Newly approved capital appropriations, 1,000 manufacturing
corporations_(Q,III)—National Industrial Conference Board;
component industries are seasonally adjusted and added
to obtain seasonally adjusted total
Number of new business incorporations (MJID.-Dun and
Bradstreet, Inc.; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the
Census and National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
Current liabilities of business failures {M,VI),--Dun and
Bradstreet, Inc.; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the
Census and National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
Corporate profits after taxes (Q,V).-Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
Price per unit of labor cost index-ratio, wholesale prices
of manufactured goods index (unadjusted) to seasonally
adjusted index of compensation of employees (sum of wages,
salaries, and supplements to wages and salaries) per unit
of output (M,V).-Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics; Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor
Statistics; and Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve
System
Profits (before taxes) per dollar of sales, all manufacturing
corporations (Q,V).-Federal Trade Commission and Securities and Exchange Commission; seasonal adjustment by
Bureau of the Census
Index of stock prices, 500 common stocks (IY!,V).-Standard
and Poor's Corporation; no seasonal adjustment
Change in book value of manufacturers' inventories ui
materials and supplies (M,IV).-Department of Commerce,
Bureau of the Census
Change in business inventories, farm and nonfarm, after
valuation adjustment (GNP component) (Q,IV).-Department
of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
Ratio of profits (after taxes) to income originating, corporate, all industries (Q,V).~Department of Commerce, Office
ofj Business Economics
j
Index of industrial materials prices (IKI,V).-Department of
Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics; no seasonal adjustment
*50. Gross national product in 1958 dollars (Q,ll).-Department
of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
*52. Personal income (M,II).-Department of Commerce. Office
of Business Economics
Average wo;kweek of production workers, manufacturing
(M,l).-Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics
New private n on farm housing units started {M,lll). -Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
49. Gross national product in current dollars (Q,ll).--Department
of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
26. Buying policy-production materials, percent reporting commitments 60 days or longer (W,IV).-National Association
of Purchasing Agents; no seasonal adjustment
*31. Change in book value of manufacturing and trade inventories, total (M,IV).-Department of Commerce, Office of
Business Economics, and Bureau of the Census
Value of manufacturers' new orders, durable goods indus
tries (M,IH).--Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
*47. Index of industrial production (M,ll).~Board of Governors
of the Federal Reserve System
37. Percent reporting higher inventories, purchased materials
(M,IV).-National Association of Purchasing Agents; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census
*38. Index of net business formation (M,lll).-Dun and Bradstreet,
Inc., and Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census;
seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census and National
Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
39. Percent of consumer installment loans delinquent 30 days
and over (EOM.VI).-American Bankers Association; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census arrd National
Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. (Bimonthly since
December 1964)
85. Percent change in total U.S. money supply (demand deposits
plus currency) (M,VI).-Board of Governors of the Federal
Reserve System
94. Index of construction contracts, total value (M,III)."F.W.
Dodge Corporation
98. Percent change in total U.S. money supply (demand deposits
and currency) and commercial bank time deposits (M,VI).Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
110. Total funds raised by private nonfinancial borrowers in
credit markets (Q,VI).--Board of Governors of the Federal
Reserve System
55. Index of wholesale prices, industrial commodities (M,V).-Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics: no seasonal adjustment
57. Final sales (series 49 minus series 21) (Q,ll).-Department
of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
58. Index of wholesale prices, manufactured goods (M,WDepartment of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, no seasonal adjustment
93. Free reserves (member bank excess reserves minus borrowings) (IKI.VI).-Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve
System; no seasonal adjustment
%.!VtanufacturersT unfilled orders, durable goods industries
(EOM.Ill).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
97. Backlog of capital appropriations, manufacturing (EOQ,III).
National Industrial Conference Board,, component industries
are seasonally adjusted and added to obtain seasonally
adjusted total
114. Discount rate on new issues of 91-day Treasury bills
(M,VI).-Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System,
no seasonal adjustment
115. Yield on long-term Treasury bonds (M,VI).-Treasury Department; no seasonal adjustment
116. Yield on new issues of high-grade corporate bonds (M,VI). •
First National City Bank of New York and Treasury Department; no seasonal adjustment
117.Yield on municipal bonds, 20bond average (M,VI),--The
Bond Buyer; no seasonal adjustment
301. Nonagricultural job openings unfilled (EOM.I).-Department
of Labor,, Bureau of Employment Security; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census
511. Man-hours in nonagricultural establishments, ((¥1,1). Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics
*816. Manufacturing and trade sales (Ifl.ll).--Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics and Bureau of the
Census
112. Net change in bank loans to businesses (M,VI).-Board of
Governors of the Federal Reserve System; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census
*113. Net change in consumer installment debt (M,VI). -Board of
Governors of the Federal Reserve System
25 Roughly Coincident Indicators
40. Unemployment rate, married males, spouse present (MJ).Department of Labor. Bureau of Labor Statistics, and Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
*41. Number of employees in nonagricultural establishments
(BIJ).-Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics
42. Total nonagricultural employment, labor force survey (M,l).~Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, and
Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
*43. Unemployment rate, total (M,l). Department of Labor,
Bureau of Labor Statistics, and Department of Commerce,
Bureau of the. Census
11 Lagging Indicators
+61. Business expenditures on new plant and equipment, total
(Q,111).-Department of Commerce, Office of Business
Economics, and the Securities and Exchange Commission
+62. Index of labor cost per unit of output, total manufacturingratio, index of compensation of employees in manufacturing
(the sum of wages and salaries and supplements to wages
and salaries) to index of industrial production, manufacturing (M,V).-Department of Commerce, Office of Business
Economics, and the Board of Governors of the Federal
Reserve System
65. Book value of manufacturers' inventories of finished goods,
all manufacturing industries (EOM.IV).-Department of
Commerce, Bureau of the Census
66. Consumer installment debt (EOM,Vl).--Board of Governors
of the Federal Reserve System. FRS seasonally adjusted
net change added to seasonally adjusted figure for previous
month to obtain current figure
45. Average weekly insured unemployment rate, State programs
(M,I).-Department of Labor, Bureau of Employment Security
46. Index of help-wanted advertising in newspapers (M,l).-National Industrial Conference Board
Continued on reverse
UNITED STATES
GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE
DIVISION OF PUBLIC DOCUMENTS
POSTAGE AND FEES PAI^D
U.S. GOVERNMENT PRINTING O F F I C
WASHINGTON, D.C. 20402
OFFICIAL BUSINESS
FIRST CLASS MAIL
Titles and Sources of Principal Business Cycle Series and Diffusion Indexes-Continued
99. New orders, defense products industries (M,V 111) .-Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
128. Japan, index of industrial production (M).--Ministry of Inl
national Trade and Industry (Tokyo)
68. Labor cost (current dollars) per unit of gross product (1958
dollars), nonfinancial corporations (ratio of current-dollar
compensation of employees to gross corporate product in
1958 dollars) (Q,V).~Department of Commerce, Office of
Business Economics, National Income Division
101. Federal purchases of goods and services, national defense
(Q.VIII).-Department of Commerce, Office of Business
Economics
861. Manufacturers' new orders for export, durable goods except
motor vehicle;; and parts (M,Vlf).-Department of Commerce,
Bureau of the Census; no seasonal adjustment
... United States, index of industrial production (M,ll).«!
series 47
*71. Book value, manufacturing and trade inventories, total
(EOM.IV).-Department of Commerce, Office of Business
Economics ana Bureau of the Census
862. Index of export orders for nonelectrical machinery (M,VII).McGraw-Hill, Department of Economics; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census
*67. Bank rates on short-term business loans, 35 cities (Q,VI).-Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System; no
seasonal adjustment
*72. Commercial and industrial loans outstanding, weekly reporting large commercial banks (EOM,VI).-Board of Governors
of the Federal Reserve System; seasonal adjustment by
Bureau of the Census and National Bureau of Economic
Research, Inc.
118. Secondary market yields on FHA mortgages (M,VI).--Federal
Mousing Administration; no seasonal adjustment
*502. Unemployment rate, 15 weeks and over (M,l).-Department
of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics
505. Manufacturers' machinery and equipment sates and business
construction expenditures (industrial and commercial construction put in place) (M,lll),»Department of Commerce,
Bureau of the Census
16 Other Selected U.S. Series
81. Index of consumer prices (M,V).-Department of Labor,
Bureau of Labor Statistics; no seasonal adjustment
82. Federal cash payments to the public (Q,VIII).»Treasury
Department, Bureau of Accounts, and Executive Office of
the President, Bureau of the Budget
83. Federal cash receipts from the public (Q.VIII).-Treasury
Department, Bureau of Accounts, and Executive Office of
the President, Bureau of the Budget
84. Federal cash surplus or deficit (Q,VIII).-Treasury Department, Bureau of Accounts, and Executive Office of the
President, Bureau of the Budget
86. Exports, excluding military aid shipments, total (M.VII).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
87. General imports, total (M,VII),-Department of Commerce,
Bureau of the Census
8 U.S. Series
Under Consideration
850. Ratio, output to capacity, mfg. (Q).-Board of Governors tf
the Federal Reserve System, Department of Commerce, and
McGraw-Hill (Economics Department
851. Ratio, inventories (BCD series 71) to sales (BCD series
816), manufacturing and trade total (M).~ Department of
Commerce, Office of Business Economics
852. Ratio, unfilled orders (BCD series 96) to shipments, manufacturers' durable goods (NT).-- Department of Commerce,
Bureau of the Census
853. Ratio, production of business equipment to production of
consumer goods (index: 1957-59 = 100) (Nl).-Board of
Governors of the Federal Reserve System. (Based upon
components of the Federal Reserve index of industrial
production.)
854. Ratio, personal saving to disposable personal income (Q).»
Departmentof Commerce, Office of Business Economics
855. Ratio, nonagricultural job openings unfilled (BCD series
301) to number of persons unemployed (M).-Department of
Labor, Bureau of Employment Security and Bureau of Labor
Statistics; and Department of Commerce, Bureau of the
Census
856. Ratio, average hourly earnings of production workers in
manufacturing! to consumer prices (BCD series 81) (M).Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics; seasonal
adjustment by Bureau of the Census
90. Defense Department obligations, procurement (M,VIII).~
Department of Defense, Fiscal Analysis Division; seasonal
adjustment by Bureau of the Census
91. Defense Department obligations, total (Ni,VIII).-Department
of Defense, Fiscal Analysis Division; seasonal adjustment
by Bureau of the Census
92. Military prime contract awards to U.S. business firms and
institutions (M, VI11).-Department of Defense, Directorate
for Statistical Services; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of
the Census
95. Federal surplus or deficit, national income and product
account (Q,VIII)."Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
133. Canada, index of consumer prices (M).-Dominion Bureau
Statistics (Ottawa); no seasonal adjustment
135. West Germany, index of consumer prices (M).-Statistiscl
Bundesamt (Wiesbaden); no seasonal adjustment
136. France, index of consumer prices (M).-lnstitut National
la Statistique et des Etudes Economiques (Paris);
seasonal adjustment
137. Italy, index of consumer prices (M).-lstituto Central
Statistica(Rome); no seasonal adjustment
138. Japan, index of consumer prices (ffl).-Office of the Pn
Minister (Tokyo); no seasonal adjustment
. . . United States,, index of consumer price? (M,V).-- <
Series 81
142. United Kingdom, index of stock prices (M).--The Financ
Times (London); no seasonal adjustment
143. Canada, index of stock prices (M).-Dominion Bureau
Statistics (Ottawa); no seasonal adjustment
145. West Germany, index of stock prices (M).-Statistisct
Bundesamt (Wiesbaden); no seasonal, adjustment
146. France, index of stock prices (M).--lnstitut National de
Statistique et des Etudes Economiques (Paris); no seaso
adjustment
147. Italy, index of stock prices (M).-lstituto Centrale di Stat
tica (Rome); no seasonal adjustment
148. Japan, index of stock prices (NJ).-Tokyo Stock Exchar
(Tokyo); no seasonal adjustment
... United States, index of stock prices, 500 common sttx
(M,V).--See series 19
857. Vacancy rate in rental housing-unoccupied rental housing
units as a percent of total rental housing (Q).~ Department
of Commerce, Bureau of the Census.
88. Merchandise trade balance (series 86 minus series 87)
(M,VII).--Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
89. Excess of receipts or payments in U.S. balance of payments
(Q,VII).-Department of Commerce, Office of Business
Economics
132. United Kingdom, index of consumer prices (NT).-Ministry
Labour (London); no seasonal adjustment
Diffusion Indexes
19 International Comparisons
121. Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development,
European Countries, index of industrial production (IY1).-Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development
(Paris)
122. United Kingdom, index of industrial production (M).--Central
Statistical Office (London)
The "D" preceding a number indicates a diffusion ind
Diffusion indexes and corresponding business cycle ser
bear the same number and are obtained from the same sou re
See sources above for DI, D5, D6, Dll, 019, D23, D41, D
D54, D58, and D61. Sources for other diffusion indexes
as follows:
D34. Profits, manufacturing, FNCB (Q).-First National C
Bank of New York; no seasonal adjustment of series c<
ponents. Diffusion indexes are seasonally adjusted
Bureau of the Census and National Bureaii of Econo
Research, Inc.
123. Canada, index of industrial product ion (M).-Domini on Bureau
of Statistics (Ottawa)
125. West Germany, index of industrial production (M).-Statistisches Bundesamt (Wiesbaden); seasonally adjusted by
OECD
126. France, index of industrial production (M).--lnstitut National
de la Statistique et des Etudes Economiques (Paris)
D36. New orders, durable manufactures (Q).--Dun and Bradstre
Inc.; no seasonal adjustment
127. Italy, index of industrial production (M).-lstituto Centrale
di Statistica(Rome)
D48, Freight carloadings (Q).-Association of American R;
roads; no seasonal adjustment
For Index-Series Finding Guide, see last pages of issue.
D35. Net sales, total manufactures (Q).-Dun and Bradstn
Inc.; no seasonal adjustment
@FedFRASER