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DEVELOPMENTS
May 1967
DATA THROUGH APRIL

DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE




BUREAU OF THE CENSUS

This report was prepared in the Economic
Research and Analysis Division under the
direction of Juiius Shiskin Chief, Technical
staff and their responsibilities for th^ piiblication are—
> .
Feliks Tamm~*Technical supervision' and
review,
Barry A. Beckman—Specifications' for
computer processing,
John C. (Vlusgrave-—New projects,
Morton Somer—Selection of seasonal
adjustment methods,
fietty F. Tunstalt—Collection and compilation of basic data.
n
Editorial supervision is provided by Geraldine
Censky of the Administrative and Publications
Services Division. Stuart I. Freeman is responsible for publication design,
The cooperation of various 'government and
private agencies which provide data is gratefully acknowledged. The agencies furnishing
data are indicated in the list of series and
sources on the back cover of this report

U.S. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE

Alexander B. Trowbridge, Acting Secretary
William H. Shaw, Asst. Secy., Economic Affairs
BUREAU OF THE CENSUS
A. Ross Eckler, Director
Howard C. Grieves, Deputy Director
Morris H. Hansen, Asst. Director for Research and Development

JULIUS SHISKIN, Chief Economic Statistician
Subscription price is $7 a year ($U5 additional for foreign mailing). Single issues are
60 cents,
>
Airmail delivery is available at an additional
charge. For information about domestic pr
foreign airmail delivery, write to the Superintendent of Documents (address below),
enclosing a copy of your address label, Make
checks payable to the Superintendent of
ppcuments, $$nd ^ ^g. Government Printing
Office, Washington, D.C. 20402, or to any U.S.
Department of Commerce Field Office.

ABOUT THE COVER—Series in this publication
are grouped according to their usual timing
and shown against the background of contractions and expansions in general business
activity. The center panel illustrates this
concept. The vertical bar represents a contraction; the top curve, the Leading Series Which
usually fall before a contraction has begun and
rise before it has ended; the middle curve, the
Coincident Series which usually fall with the
contraction period; the bottom curve, the
Lagging Series which fall after a contraction
has begun and rise after it ends, Series are also
classified by economic process
within each
timing group. Processes are1 indicated in the1
squares bordering the panel
,




PREFACE This report brings together many of the available economic
indicators in convenient form for analysis and interpretation. The presentation
and classification of series follow the business indicators approach. The list
of indicators and their classification into ''leading," "roughly coincident,"
and "lagging" groups are those designated by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), a private, nonprofit research organization which
has been preparing lists of business cycle indicators for more than 40 years.
The business cycle turning dates are also those designated by NBER. In
addition, all series within each timing group are classified under eight
economic processes (e.g., employment and unemployment; production, income, consumption, and trade; fixed capital investment; etc.). Some special
series included in the list (such as labor costs in manufacturing and the total
of machinery and equipment sales and business construction) have been
constructed by the NBER for purposes of business cycle analysis.
The utilization of the National Bureau list of indicators and their
cyclical turning dates is not to be taken as implying acceptance or endorsement by the Bureau of the Census or any other government agency of any
approach to business- cycle analysis, nor of the special series compiled
by the National Bureau to facilitate cyclical studies. This report is intended
only to supplement other Department of Commerce reports that provide
information so arranged as to facilitate the analysis of current business
conditions.
The unique features of BCD are the arrangement of data according
to their usual timing relations during the course of the business cycle, the
cross-classification by timing and economic process, and the inclusion of
special analytical measures and historical cyclical comparisons that help in
evaluating the current state of the business cycle. In addition, the movements of the series are shown against the background of the expansions and
contractions of the general business cycle so that "leads" and "lags" can be
readily detected and unusual cyclical developments spotted.
About 90 principal series and over 300 components are used in preparing BCD. Almost all of the basic data have been published by the source
agency. A complete list of series titles and the sources of data is shown on
the back cover of this report.

May 1967
DATA THROUGH APRIL

DEVELOPMENTS




CONTENTS
Cross-Classification of Business Indicators by Economic Process and Cyclical
Timing
.
Background Materials
New Features and Changes for This Issue
3 Census Projects on Economic Fluctuations

iii
iv
v
vi

Descriptions and Procedures
Introduction
:
Timing Classification
Economic Process Classification
"Short List" of Indicators
Method of Presentation
Concepts and Procedures
References
How to Read Charts 1 and 2

,

1
1
2
2
2
2
2
4

Section One—Basic Data
Table 1. Changes Over 4 Latest Months
Chart 1. Business Cycle Series From 1948 to Present
Table 2. Latest Data for Business Cycle Series
,

6
9
29

Section Two—Analytical Measures
Table
Chart
Table
Table

3.
2.
4.
5.

Distribution of "Highs" for Current and Comparative Periods
Diffusion Indexes From 1948 to Present
Latest Data for Diffusion Indexes
Selected Diffusion Indexes and Components

44
45
48
52

Section Three—Cyclical Comparisons
Chart 3. Comparisons of Reference Cycles

64

CONTENTS
Continued




Appendixes
Appendix A. Business Cycle Expansions and Contractions in the United
States: 1854 to 1961
„
Appendix B. Specific Trough and Peak Dates for Selected Business
Indicators
_
Appendix C. Average Changes and Related Measures for Business Cycle
Series
Appendix D. Current Adjustment Factors for Business Cycle Series
Appendix E. Percent Change for Selected Series Over Contraction and
Expansion Periods of Business Cycles: 1920 to 1961 _ _ _
Appendix F. Historical Data for Selected Series

69
70
72
76
77
78

Index
Series Finding Guide

^

79

Cross-Classification of Business Indicators by
Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
(Minor economic processes and the number of series in each process are shown for each classification. See the index and back cover for series titles)

^\.
Cyclical
^\^
Timing
Economic ^\^
Process
^N.

.

1. EMPLOYMENT AND
UNEMPLOYMENT
(14 series)

NBER
LEADING INDICATORS

(36 series)

NBER
ROUGHLY COINCIDENT
INDICATORS

NBER
LAGGING INDICATORS
(11 series)

OTHER
SELECTED U.S. SERIF.S
(16 series)

(25 series)
Marginal employment
adjustments
(5 series)

Job vacancies
(2 series)
Comprehensive employment
(3 series)
Comprehensive unemployment
(3 series)

Long-duration unemployment
(1 series)

Comprehensive production
(3 series)
Comprehensive income
(2 series)
Comprehensive consumption
and trade (3 series)

II. PRODUCTION,
INCOME,
CONSUMPTION,
AND TRADE
(8 series)
III. FIXED CAPITAL
INVESTMENT
(14 series)

Formation of business
enterprises
(2 series)
New investment commitments
(8 series)

IV. INVENTORIES AND
INVENTORY
INVESTMENT

inventory investment
and purchasing
(7 series)

Backlog of investment
commitments
(2 series)

Investment expenditures
(2 series)

Inventories
(2 series)

(9 series)

V. PRICES, COSTS,
AND PROFITS

(11 series)

VI. MONEY AND CREDIT
(17 series)

Sensitive commodity prices
(1 series)
Stock prices
(i series)
Profits and profit margins
(4 series)

Comprehensive wholesale prices
(2 series)

Unit labor costs
(2 series)

Flows of money and credit
(6 series)
Credit difficulties
(2 series)

Bank reserves
(1 series)
Money market interest
rates
(4 series)

Outstanding debt
(2 series)
Interest rates on
business loans and mortgages
(2 series)

VII. FOREIGN TRADE
AND PAYMENTS
(6 series)

Foreign trade and
payments
(6 series)

VIII. FEDERAL
GOVERNMENT
ACTIVITIES

Federal Government
activities
(9 series)

(9 series)




Comprehensive retail
prices (1 series)

111

BACKGROUND MATERIALS
3. A short list of 25 indicators, drawn from the
full list, is identified throughout BCD. This more
selective list includes 12 leading, 7 roughly coincident,
and 6 lagging series; 21 are monthly and 4 are
quarterly. The short list involves little of the duplication in economic coverage that is provided, for
various reasons, in the full list. The series on the
short list are identified by asterisks.
Changes in the 1966 list of indicators are as follows
(series identification number and title):

A revised list of indicators was introduced in the April
issue of BUSINESS CYCLE DEVELOPMENTS. Research work for the revised list was carried out by the
National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. (NBER),
a private, nonprofit research organization which has
been preparing lists of economic indicators and research
reports in the field of business cycle analysis for more
than 40 years. This revised list was published by the
National Bureau in March 1967, and is the result of
a periodic review made by that agency of its previous
list of indicators of aggregate economic activity. This
is the third revision of the list originally published by
the National Bureau in 1938.
The method of preparing the new list, the reasons for.
adding certain series and dropping others, and an
explanation of the classification system used are described in a new report, INDICATORS OF BUSINESS
EXPANSIONS AND CONTRACTIONS, published by
the National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc., 261
Madison Avenue, New York, N.Y., 10016. Other reports on the historical studies and methods of making
current interpretations of the indicators are listed in
this book.
The revised list includes some new series, discontinues some of those on the* previous list, and has
assigned timing classifications to some series previously
unclassified by timing. The chief features of the new list
follow:
1. The major principle of classification is a fourfold grouping by cyclical timing: Leading, roughly
coincident, and lagging indicators, and other selected
series. The first three categories take into account
timing at both peaks and troughs; the fourth group
includes economic activities that have an important
role in business cycles but have displayed a less
regular relation to them. The new list of indicators
includes 36 leading series, 25 roughly coincident
series, 11 lagging series, and 16 series unclassified
by timing—88 series in all; 72 are monthly and
16 are quarterly. This list includes 13 series not on
the previous NBER list and omits 5 series. In addition, 14 series previously unclassified by timing are
assigned a timing classification.
2. The type of economic process represented by
the series is used as a secondary principle of classification, with emphasis on the processes that are
important for business cycle analysis. The 88 U.S.
series are classified into eight major groups: (I)
Employment and Unemployment, 14 series; (II)
Production, Income, Consumption, and Trade, 8
series; (III) Fixed Capital Investment, 14 series;
(IV) Inventories and Inventory Investment, 9 series;
(V) Prices, Costs, and Profits, 11 series; (VI) Money
and Credit, 17 series; (VII) Foreign Trade and
Payments, 6 series; and (VIII) Federal Government
Activities, 9 series. Each of these major categories
is subdivided into economic processes that exhibit
rather distinct differences in cyclical timing. For
example, under Fixed Capital Investment, new investment commitments are distinguished from investment expenditures. A ninth group on economic
activity in other countries (7 series) is also provided.




13 series new to the 1966 list:
33. Net change in mortgage debt held by financial institutions and life insurance companies
39. Delinquency rate, 30 days and over, total
installment loans
58, Index of wholesale prices, manufactured goods
*71. Manufacturing and trade inventories, book
value
*72. Commercial and industrial loans outstanding,
weekly reporting large commercial banks
101. National defense purchases
301, Nonagricultural job openings unfilled
*502. Unemployment rate, persons unemployed 15
weeks and over
505. Machinery and equipment sales and business
construction expenditures
511. Man-hours in nonfarm establishments
*816. Manufacturing and trade sales
861. Manufacturers' new orders for export, durable
goods except motor vehicle and parts
862. Index of export orders, nonelectrical machinery
5 series on the previous list but omitted from the
1966 list:
4. Number of persons on temporary layoff, all
industries
15. Number of business failures with liabilities of
$100,000 and over
*51. Bank debits, all standard metropolitan statistical areas except New York
*64. Manufacturers* inventories, book value
111. Corporate gross savings
10 series specially constructed for business cycle
studies at the suggestion of the NBER:
*10, Contracts and orders for plant and equipment
*17. Ratio, price to unit labor cost, manufacturing
22. Ratio of profits to income originating, corporate, all industries
33. Net change in mortgage debt held by financial
institutions and life insurance companies
*38. Index of net business formation
53. Wages and salaries in mining, manufacturing,
and construction
*62. 'Index of labor cost per unit of output, manufacturing
68. Index of labor cost per dollar of real corporate
GNP
505. Machinery and equipment sales and business
construction expenditures
511. Man-hours in nonfarm establishments
*Denotes series included on "short list."

IV

ffl A limited number of changes are made from time to time to reflect the
change from one stage of the business cycle to another, to show new findings
of business cycle research and newly available economic series, or to emphasize the activity of a particular series or series group. Such changes may
involve additions or deletions of series used, changes in placement in relation
to other series, changes in components of indexes, etc.

;:lL
;•§&!»

i

Changes in this issue are as follows:
1. The series on backlog of capital appropriations

r^;-^Mj^»

in manufacturing (series 97) has been revised backward
from a new benchmark at the beginning of 1967 by the
source

agency. Revisions are shown in this issue

beginning with the 1st quarter 1965.

Revised figures

for the earlier period will be shown in a subsequent
issue.

Information concerning this revision may be

obtained from the National Industrial Conference Board,
845 Third Avenue, New York, N.Y., 10005.
2. Appendix F includes historical data for series 9
and 10.

The June issue of BUSINESS CYCLE DEVELOPMENTS
scheduled for release on June 27.




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-

CENSUS METHOD II ADJUSTMENT PROGRAM. A time series computer
program for measuring and analyzing seasonal, trading-day, cyclical, and
irregular fluctuations and the relations among them. This program is
particularly useful in analyzing economic fluctuations which take place
within a year.

'*

' * " '

* '"

K

$$?^£%M.
&; ,*VKV «>'*£.***£•-<•.,; v- . :-,/•-•. - \ . •* 'i




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The latest variant, X - l l , has greater generality and scope than any of the
earlier programs. It can adjust quarterly as well as monthly series and series
with negative and positive numbers as well as those with positive numbers
alone. The X-ll version measures and adjusts not only for seasonal variations, but also for trading-day variations. Further, it computes many summary
and analytical measures of the behavior of each series. The program includes
various techniques, such as F tests and variance analysis, for use in extending
the scope of time series studies and is written in a simplified computer language—Fortran IV, The program deck can be purchased from the Census
Bureau at cost.

BUSINESS CYCLE DEVELOPMENTS. A monthly report for analyzing economic
fluctuations over a short span of years.

This report brings together several hundred monthly and quarterly "economic indicator" series for the analysis of short-term economic trends and
prospects. These series have been selected, tested, and evaluated, after half
a century of continuing research, as the most useful and reliable for this
purpose. The publication provides not only the basic data, but also various
charts and analytical tables to facilitate such studies. In addition, a time
series punch-card file, a diffusion index program, and a separate summarymeasures computer program are available for those who wish to carry on
further research in business cycle analysis.

LONG TERM ECONOMIC GROWTH. An annual report for the study of
economic fluctuations over a long span of years.

This report has been developed from available statistics to provide a comprehensive, long-range view of the U.S. economy. It has been planned,
prepared, and published as a basic research document for economists, historians, investors, teachers, and students. It brings together for the first time
under one cover, in meaningful and convenient form, the complete statistical
basis for a study of long-term economic trends. It is a unique presentation
of the full range of factors required for an understanding of our country's
economic development. Some of the statistical series go back to 1860. A
punchcard file of the time series included in the report is available for
purchase.

DE

The business cycle is generally described as consisting
of alternating periods of expansion and contraction in
aggregate economic activity—that is, the complex of
activities represented by such concepts as total production, employment, income, consumption, trade, and the
flow of funds. Although a recurrent pattern has been
characteristic of American economic history, many
economists do not consider it inevitable.
The causal relations among various economic processes are primarily responsible for the cumulative
nature of cyclical forces and explain why expansions
have eventually turned into recessions and recessions
into expansions. Cyclical fluctuations in production
and employment are preceded by fluctuations in
measures which relate to future rather than current
production—measures such as new orders for durable
goods, formation of new business enterprises, and accessions to payrolls. They are followed by fluctuations
in various economic costs, such as labor costs, interest
rates, fulfillment of long-term commitments, and holdings of inventories and debts.
TIMING CLASSIFICATION
On the basis of many years of research, the National
Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) has compiled a
list of indicators of aggregate economic activity and has
classified these indicators according to whether they
usually lead, roughly coincide with, or lag behind the
cyclical movements in aggregate activity. The 1966 list,
as issued by the NBER, is the basis for the presentation of U.S. series in BUSINESS CYCLE DEVELOPMENTS. Prior to April 1967, their 1960 list was
used. The series have been grouped and classified by
the NBER as "leading," "roughly coincident," or "lag-




ging" indicators, These indicators are described as
follows:
NBER Leading Indicators.—Series that usually reach
peaks or troughs before those in aggregate economic
activity as measured by the roughly coincident series
(see below). One group of these series pertains to
orders and contracts, another to inventory investment, and so on.
NBER Roughly Coincident Indicators.—Series that
are direct measures of aggregate economic activity
or move roughly together with it; for example, nonagricultural employment, industrial production, and
retail sales.
NBER Lagging Indicators.—Series, such as new
plant and equipment expenditures and manufacturers'
inventories, that usually reach turning points after
they are reached in aggregate economic activity.
Also included in BCD are (a) "Other selected U.S.
series," economic activities which are important in
analyzing business cycles but have a less consistent
relation to them, and (b) industrial production indexes
for several countries which have important trade relations with the United States.
The business cycle turning dates used in this report
are those designated by the NBER. They mark the
approximate dates when aggregate economic activity
reached its cyclical high (peak) or low (trough) levels.
As a matter of general practice, a business cycle turning date will not be designated until at least 6 months
after it has occurred. (See appendix A for peak and
trough dates.)

ECONOMIC PROCESS CLASSIFICATION

A secondary principle of classification, economic
process, supplements the timing classification. All series
are cross-classified according to these two prinicples,
The major economic process categories are employment and unemployment; production, income, consumption, and trade; fixed capital investment; inventories and inventory investment; prices, costs, and
profits; money and credit; foreign trade and payments;
and Federal Government activity.
"SHORT LIST'1 OF INDICATORS

A short, substantially unduplicated list of principal indicators provides a convenient way of summarizing
the current situation and outlook. The NBER has
identified, for this purpose, a short list of 25. This list
includes 12 leading, 7 roughly coincident, and 6 lagging
indicators; 21 are monthly and 4 are quarterly. These
series are identified throughout BCD.
METHOD OF PRESENTATION

This report consists of three major sections as follows:
Basic Data (chart 1, tables 1 and 2).—Data for all
series are shown for the current and prior periods
in both graphic and tabular form. Thus, a broad view
of past and current business cycle fluctuations is
provided.
Analytical Measures (chart 2, tables 3 to 5).—Measures are presented which help to determine the
magnitude and scope of current changes in different
processes, industries, and areas, and aid in evaluating the prospects of a turning point in the business
cycle.
Cyclical Patterns (chart 3).—Comparisons are made
between current cyclical levels and previous business
cycles.
A list of titles and sources for all series is shown on
the back cover of this report. The series numbers are
for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order.

CONCEPTS AND PROCEDURES

Several other concepts and procedures used in this
report are summarized below:
Adjustments for average seasonal fluctuations are
often necessary to bring out the underlying cyclical
trends of a series. In most cases, the seasonally ad-




justed data used for a series are the official figures
released by the source agency. In addition, for the
special purposes of business cycle studies, a number of
series that are not ordinarily published in seasonally
adjusted form are shown on a seasonally adjusted basis
in this report. The seasonal adjustment process usually
accounts for variations due to holidays; however, there
are some cases in which a separate holiday adjustment
is needed for holidays with variable dates.
Months for cyclical dominance (MCD) is an estimate of the appropriate span over which to observe the
cyclical movements in a monthly series. MCD moving
averages are shown in chart 1 for series with an MCD
of "5" or more; however, to provide an indication of
the variation about these moving averages, monthly
data are also plotted.
Diffusion indexes are simple summary measures
which express what percentage of the components of an
aggregate series has risen over given time spans. Their
turning points tend to lead those of the aggregate.
Series numbers preceded by "D" designate diffusion
indexes. Many of the component series used to make
up the diffusion indexes are shown in table 5.
During the current expansion, high values for the
indicators are identified in table 2. These values are
not necessarily cyclical peak values, but are simply the
highest values reached to date.
Certain appendix materials are presented regularly
in this report. These materials include historical data,
adjustment factors, peak and trough dates, and other
information helpful in interpreting trends in the indicators.

REFERENCES

Fuller explanations of the use of indicators of aggregate
economic activity in analyzing current business conditions and prospects may be found in the following
references:
(1) Alexander, Sidney S. "Rate of Change Approaches to Forecasting—Diffusion Indexes and
First Differences," The Economic Journal,
June 1958, pp. 288-301.
(2) Broida, Arthur L. "Diffusion Indexes," American Statistician vol. IX, No. 2 (June 1955),
pp. 7-16,
(3) Burns, Arthur F. and Mitchell, Wesley C.
Measuring Business Cycles. New York: National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.,
1946.

(4) Daly, D. J. and White, D. A. "Economic Indicators in the 1960's," Proceedings of the Business and Economics Statistics Section, American
Statistical Association, August 1966, pt. V, pp.
64-75.
(5) Gordon, R. A. "Alternative Approaches to
Forecasting: The Recent Work of the National
Bureau," The Review of Economics and Statistics vol. XLIV, No. 3 (August 1962), pp. 284291.
(6) Lempert, Leonard H. "Leading Indicators,"
How Business Economists Forecast (William F.
Butler and Robert A. Kavesh, Ed.) pt, I, ch. 2,
pp. 31-47. Englewood Cliffs, N.J.: PrenticeHall, 1966.
(7) Moore, Geoffrey H., Editor, Business Cycle
Indicators. New York: National Bureau of
Economic Research, Inc., 1961.
(8) Moore, Geoffrey H. and Shiskin, Julius. Indicators of Business Expansions and Contractions,




Occasional Paper 103. New York: National
Bureau of Economic Research, Inc., 1967.
(9) Morris, Frank E. "The Predictive Value of the
National Bureau's Leading Indicators," Business
Cycle Indicators vol. I, ch. 4, pp. 110-119. New
York: National Bureau of Economic Research,
Inc., 1961.
(10) Okun, Arthur M. "On the Appraisal of Cyclical
Turning Point Predictors," Journal of Business,
April 1960, pp. 101-120.
(11) Shiskin, Julius. Business Cycle Indicators: The
Known and the Unknown. Paper presented at
the 34th session of the International Statistical
Institute, Ottawa, Canada, August 24, 1963.
Washington: Bureau of the Census, 1963.
(12) Shiskin, Julius. Signals of Recession and Recovery, Occasional Paper 7 7. New York:
National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.,
1961.

HOW TO READ CHARTS 1 AND 2
Peak (P) of cycle indicates end of
expansion and beginning of Reces
sion (shaded areas) as designated
by NBER.

CHART 1 - Business Cycle Series

Trough (T) of cycle indicates end of
recession and beginning of Expansion as designated by
Arabic number indicates latest
month for which data are plotted,
("3"-March)

Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series
relationships or order. Series are
arranged in charts and tables according to their classification by
timing and economic process.

Roman number indicates later
quarter for which data are plottei
"II" = second quarter)

Solid line indicates monthly data.
(Data may be actual monthly figures
or MCD moving averages.*)

Dotted line indicates anticipatec
data.

Broken line indicates actual
monthly data for series where an
MCD moving average* is plotted.

Various scales are used to high
light the patterns of the individua
series. "Scale A" is an arithmetic
scale, "scale L-l" is a logarithm!*
scale with 1 cycle in a given dis
tance, "scale L-2" is a logarithm!*
scale with 2 cycles in that distance
etc. The scales should be carefull;
noted because they show whethei
or not the plotted lines for variou:
series are directly comparable.

Parallel lincis indicate a break in
continuity (data not available,
changes in series definitions,
extreme values, etc.).
Solid line with plotting points indicates quarterly data.
CHART 2 - Diffusion Indexes
Solid line indicates monthly data
over 6- or 9-month spans.

Scale shows percent of component:
rising.

Broken lino indicates monthly data
over 1-month spans.

Arabic number indicates lates
month for which data are used ir
computing the indexes. ("2"=
February)

Solid line with plotting points indicates quarterly data over various
spans.

* Many of the more irregular series are
shown in fterms of their MCD moving
averages as; well as their actual monthly
data. In such cases, the 4-, 5-, or 6-term
moving averages are plotted IVfe, 2, or
2Vz months, respectively, behind the
actual data. See appendix C for a description of MCD moving averages.

Roman number indicates lates
quarter for which data are used if
computing the indexes. ("IV"=
fourth quarter)

Broken line with plotting points in
dicates quarterly data over varioui
intervals. This line is also used t<
indicate anticipated quarterly data

HOW TO LOCATE A SERIES
To locate a series in BCD, consult the Index—Series Finding Guide in the back of the book where series are arranged into eight groups
by economic process and cross referenced by timing classification in the first column. The back cover, which lists series titles (followed
by a Roman numeral denoting economic process group) and sources in numerical order within each timing group, may also be helpful to
some readers.



Section ONE

DATA
charts and tables
LEADING INDICATORS
Employment and unemployment
Fixed capital investment
Inventories and inventory investment
Prices, costs, and profits
Money and credit
ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
Employment and unemployment
Production, income, consumption, and frade
Fixed capital investment
Prices, costs, and profits
Money and credit
LAGGING INDICATORS




Employment and

unemployment

fixed capital investment
Inventories and inventory investment
Prices, costs, and profits
Money and credit
OTHER U.S. SERIES
Prices, costs, and profits
Foreign trade and payments
Federal Government activities
INTERNATIONAL

COMPARISONS

Industrial production indexes for selected foreign countries

Table 1
ft 0*1

S5l

BASIC DATA

MAY 1967

UCU

CHANGES OVER 4 LATEST MONTHS

Average percent change2

Basic data1

Series
(See complete titles and sources on
back cover)

Unit of
measure

Jan.
1967

Mar.
1967

Feb.
1967

Apr. '66
to date
(with
srgnr

Apr.
1967

3

Apr. '66 1953 to
to date
1965
(without5 (without
sign)5 6
sign)

Current percent change 3
Jan.
to
Feb.
1967

Feb.
to
Mar.
1967

Mar.
to
Apr.
1967

-1.7
-2.8
-8.7

+0.2
-4.2
-2.4

+0,2
-4.6
(NA)

NBER LEADING INDICATORS
1. EMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT

Marginal Employment Adjustments:
41.0
Hours
*1. Avg. workweek, prod, workers, mfg
*30. Nonagri. placements, at! industries
Thousands
534
4.6
Per 100 employ. .
2. Accession rate, manufacturing
5. Avg. weekly initial claims, State
203
unemployment insurance (inverted 33 ) . Thousands
3. Layoff rate, manufacturing (inverted ) . Per 100 employ. .
1.4
III. FIXED CAPITAL INVESTMENT
Formation of Business Enterprises:
102.2
1957-59=100...
*38. Index of net business formation
13. New business incorporations
Number
16,703
New Investment Commitments:
*6. New orders, durable^goods industries. . . Bil. dollars
22.07
94. Construction contracts, value
1957-59=100...
126
*10. Contracts and orders,' plant and7 equip. . .Bil. dollars
5.40
do
11. New capital appropriations, mfg.
do
24. New orders^ mach. and equip, indus
4.54
9. Construction contracts, commercial
Mil.. sq.ft.
and industrial buildings
floor space . . . 49.09
7. Private nonfarm housing starts
1,266
Ann. rate, thous.
1957-59=100 ..
*29. New bldg. permits, private housing
83.1
IV. INVENTORIES AND INVENTORY
INVESTMENT
Inventory Investment and Purchasing:
21. Change in [business
inventories, all
industries7 8
Ann. rate, bil.dol,
*31. Change in book value, 8manufacturing
and trade inventories
. do
+12.5
37. Purchased materials, percent reporting
higher inventories
Percent
47
20. Change in book value, mfrs.' inven8
tories of materials and supplies
Ann. rate, bil.doL
+2.2
26. Buying policy, prod, mtls., commitments 60 days or longer fft)
Percent
72
32. Vendor performance, percent reporting
do . . i
48
slower deliveries-^
25. Change in unfilled8 orders, durable
goods industries
Bil. dollars ...
-0.99

-0.2
-0.7
-1.2

0.5
3.6
5.8

0.5
1.8
4.6

(NA)

-3.7
-5.2

8.0
15.8

5.0
8.8

(NA)
(NA)

-0.4
-0.4

1.0
2.1

0.8
2.5

-0.6
-1.1
-0.6
-7.5
-0.5

3.1
5.3
3.9
9.3
3.1

-0.7
-1.3
-0.9

8.1
9.6
7.9

-2.2

6.6

-1.0

4.4 "*•

-2.2

40.3
519
4.2

40.4
497
P4.1

242
1.5

256
pl.7

103.2
15,987

103.3
16,244

r22.-33
143
r5.34
P5.57
r4.24

r22.12
149
p5.51

p22.24

r4.33

P4.48

57.84
r 1,147
78.9

56.14
rl,134
r8l.9

pi, 154

P40.5
P474
(NA)

263

138
P5.41

59,04
p88.5

r+5.6

(NA)

-5.8
-19.2
-7.1 -13.3

-2.7
(NA)

+0.1

(NA)
(NA)

+1.0
-4.3

41.6

3.8 +1.2
6.6 +13.5
-1.1
4.7
10.4 -10.7
4.2
-6.6

-0.9
+4.2
+3.2

+0.5
-7.4
-1.8

+2.1

+3.5

9.3
7.2
3.7

+17.8
-9.4
-5.1

-2.9
-1.1
+3.8

+ 5.2
+1.8
+8.1

2.3

-10.8

3.7

-10.2

-0.3

(NA)

6.8

6.5

-8.5

+7.0

-19.6

-0.4

1.6

1.5

-3.2

+0.8

(NA)

-H.5

-1.5

r+2.3

p+2.0

43

46

r-1.0

p-0.2

67

68

67

-0.2

2.6

5.3

-6.9

51

38

39

-5.6

8.0

7.5

+6.2

-25.5

+2.6

r-0.30

r-0.93

p-0.25

-0.14

0.78

0.48

+0.69

-0.63

+0.68

106.8

105.2

102.5

100.1

-1.6

1.8

1.3

-1.5

-2.6

-2.3

84.45

87.36

89.42

90.96

0.0

2.8

2.5

+3.4

+ 2.4

+1.7

-0.3

-0.3

37
(NA)

V. PRICES, COSTS, AND PROFITS
Sensitive Commodity Prices:
*23. Industrial materials prices®

1957-59=100...'

Stock Prices:
*19. Stock prices, 500 common stocks © ... 1941-43=10...
Profits and Profit Margins:
*16. Corporate profits after taxes ?
22. Ratio, profits to income originating,
corporate, all industries 7
18. Profits per dollar of sales, mfg.7
*17. Ratio, price to unit labor cost, mfg

Ann. rate, bil.doL

P45.3

-2.4

2.4

5.6

-5.8

Percent
Cents,
1957-59=100..

pll.8
(NA)
rlOl . 8

-3.4
-1.6
-0.3

3.4
1.6
0.5

4.2
5.7
0.6

-6.3
(NA)
-0.6

-0.72
-1.35
0 80
-0.29
-6.1

6.40
12.05
2.07
0.77
5.29
19.1

2.56
3.15
1.31
0.87
2.22
11.0

-9.1

31.2

18.7

102.4

rl01.5

pl01.2

+12.72
+5.64
r+12.13
+2.59
r+0.86
P60,372

r+16.20
r+16.92
p+11.75
+3.17
14-6.83

p+4.56
P-4.92

111.23

108.87

VI. MONEY AND CREDIT
Flows of Money and Credit:
98. Change in money supply and time
85.
33,
*113.
112,
110.

Ann.rate,percent i
do ....
Change in total U.S. money suoply8. . . .
£
Change in mortgage debt
Ann. rate, bil.dol.
8
do ...
Change in consumer installment debt . .
Change in business loans8
do
7
Total private borrowing
Ann. rate, mil. dot.

Credit Difficulties:
14. Liabilities of business failures (inv. 3 )
39. Delinquency rate, installment loans,
30 days and over (inverted 3 ) ....




Mil. dollars ...
Percent .

..

+6.60

-4.92
+14.16
+3.36

+6.01

'

118.61
[

1.82

(NA)
(NA)
p+9.25

110.80

(NA)

+0.06

-0.5

1.8

2.6

+3.48 -11.64
+6.12
+10 . 56 -til 28 -21.84
(NA)
-0.38
-2.03
(NA)
-0.77 +0.58
+5.97 +2.42
-5.15
+19.5

+6.2
-4.0

+2.1

-1.8
(NA)

Table 1

BASIC DATA

MAY 1967

CHANGES OVER 4 LATEST MONTHS-Continued

, 5 Basic data1
Series
(See complete titles and sources on
back cover)

Unit of
measure

Jan.
1967

Average percent change2
Mar.
1967

Feb.
1967

Apr. '66
Apr.
to date
1967 . (with
sign)4

3

Apr, '66 1953 to
to date
1965
(without (without
5
sign)
sign)5 6

Current percent change3
Jan.
to
Feb. .
1967

Feb.
to
Mar.
1967

Mar.
to
Apr.
1967

-2.7
-3.2

-3.0
-1.6

NBER ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
I. EMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT
Job Vacancies:
Thousands
301 Nonagri job openings unfilled
1957-59-100..
46 Help-wanted advertising
Comprehensive Employment:
511. Man-hours in nonfarm establishments — ' Ann. rate, bil.
.man-hours ...
*41. Employees in nonagri. establishments. . .' Thousands. .. .
do
42 Total nonagri cultural employment
Comprehensive Unemployment:
*43. Unemployment rate, total (inverted 3). . . Percent
45. Avg. weekly insured unemploy. rate,
do
State (inverted ^
do
40. Unemployment rate, married males (inv.3)
II. PRODUCTION, INCOME, CONSUMPTION,
AND TRADE
Comprehensive Production:
49 GNP in current dollars 7
*50 GNP in 1958 dollars7
*47 Industrial production
Comprehensive Income:
*52 Personal income
53. Wages, salaries in mining, mfg., constr. .
Comprehensive Consumption and Trade:
*816 Manufacturing and trade sales
57. Final sales
*54 Sales of retail stores

364
r!84

P353
pl8l

-1,6
-0.3

2.3
.1-3.

•:• 3.1'

3.0

-4.8
+0.5

rl34-03 r 133. 52 rl33.50
65~,38l, r65,497 r65,513
69,892
70,247
70,240

P133.16
p65,6ll
70,020

+0,2
+0.3
+0.2

0.4
0.3
0.3

0.4
0.3
0.4

-0.4
+0.2
0.0

-0.5

+0.2

393
189

374
190

,

0.0
0,0

-0.3
+0.1

3.7

3.7

3.6

3.7

-0.1

2.7

3.9

0.0

+2.7

-2.8

2.4
1.7

2.4
1.6

2.6
1.7

2.6
1.9

-2.1
-0.6

4.9
4.2

4.2
5.1

0.0
+5.9

-8,3
-6.2

0.0
-11.8

Ann. rate, bil.dol,
do
1957-59=100..

r!58a

r763.7
r656.7
r!56.4

156.4

P155.9

+1.4
+0,7
+0,1

1.4
0.7
0.5

1.5
1.3
1.0

+0.6
-0.1
-1.1

Ann.rate, bil.dol.
do

r607.1
161,2

r609.3
160.2

r6l2.7
160.6

p6l4.1
pl60.2

+0.6
+0.4

0.6
0.5

0.5
0.8

+0.4
-0.6

+0.6
+0.2

+0.2
-0.2

Mil. dollars...
Ann.rate, bil.dol.
Mil. dollars...

87,386

(HA)
r 86, 299 p87,371
r758.1
r25,470 r25,771 p25,667

+0.2
+1.7

0.7
1.7
1.0

1.0
1.4
1.0

-1.2
+2.0
-0.8

+1.2

(NA)

+1.2

-0.4

1.3
1.3

1.4
6.6

-0.4

-1.2

-0.3

0.0

+0.1
+0.1

0.1
0.1

•0.2
0.2

+0.2
0.0

-0.1

0.0
-0.1

?a

98

-12

-240

+61

-5.7
+3.7
-0.4
+0.9

-10.3
+0.7
+1.3
+1.4

III. FIXED CAPITAL INVESTMENT
Backlog of Investment Commitments:
96. Unfilled orders, durable goods indus 9 Bil. dollars...
do
97. Backlog of capital appropriations, mfg. . .

25,687

75. A3

r75.13

r74.20
p20.32

P73.95

+0.2

+0.7

0.0

-0.3

-1.9

V. PRICES, COSTS, AND PROFITS
Comprehensive Wholesale Prices:
55. Wholesale prices, industrial
1957-59-100..
commodities ©
'
58. Wholesale prices, manufactured goodsig). . . . . . d o
VI. MONEY AND CREDIT
Bank Reserves:
93 Free reserves 8 (inverted 3) ©
Money Market Interest Rates:
114 Treasury bill rate @ . ;
116 Corporate bond yields @
115 Treasury bond yields© .
117 Municipal bond yields(u)

Mil. dollars...
Percent
do
do
do

;
:

105.8
106. A

106.0
106.4

106.0
106.3

106.0
106.2

-16

-4

is-236

1*175

4.76
5.53
4.40
3.54

4.55
5.35
4.47
3.52

4.29
5.55
4.45
3.55

3.85
5.59
4.51
3.60

-1.4
+0.4
-0.1
+0.2

4.4
2.8
1.6
2.7

6.7
1.6
1.6
2.5

-4.4
-3.3
+1.6
-0.6

0,6

0.6

0.6

0.6

+2.0

4.8

6.5

0.0

+1.4

1.6

3.2

-0.3

+0.5

1.0

1.6

-0.5

-37

0.0

NBER LAGGING INDICATORS
1. EMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT
Long Duration Unemployment:
*502. Unemployment rate, persons unemployed
15 weeks and over (inverted 3)
III. FIXED CAPITAL INVESTMENT
Investment Expenditures:
*6jl. Business expenditures,
new plant and
equipment7
505. Machinery and equipment sales and
business construction expenditures



Percent

a62.60

Ann.rate, bil.dol.
do

75.80

75. 44

P75.14

(NA)

0.0

-0.4

0.0

(NA)

Table 1

BASIC DATA

MAY 1967

bed

CHANGES OVER 4 LATEST MONTHS-Continued

Average percent change2

Basic data1
Series
(See complete titles and sources on
back cover)

Unit of
measure

Jan,
1967

Feb.
1967

Mar.
1967

Apr.
1967

3

Apr. '66 Apr. '66
to date to date
(without
(with
sign)4 sign)5

1953 to
1965
(without
sign)5 6

Current percent change3

Jan.
to
Feb.
1967

Feb.
to
Mar.
1967

Mar.
to
Apr.
1967

NBER LAGGING INDICATORS-Continued
IV. INVENTORIES AND INVENTORY
INVESTMENT
Inventories:
*71. Book value, tnfg. and trade inventories . .Bil. dollars —
65. Book value, mfrs.' inventories of
do
finished goods

(HA)

+0.9

0.9

0.5

+0.1

+0.1

(NA)

26. 40

r26.67

p26.84

(NA)

+1.1

1.1

0.6

+1.0

+0.6

(NA)

103 '.9

p. 713
rl04.5

rlQ4.7

p!04.9

+1.4
+0.4

1.4
0.4

0.8
0.5

+2.4
+0.6

+0.2

+0.2

Mil. dollars ...

73,746

73,962

74,226

(NA)

+0.6

0.6

0.8

+0.3

+0.4

(NA)

do

60,754

60,525

61,167 p62,407

+1.1

1.3

1.0

-0.4

+1.1

+2.0

Percent
do

6. 62

6.13
6.46

6.29

+1.9
+0.2

3.8
1.5

2.0
0.1

-2.9
-2.4

-1.7

-0.9

114.7

1U-B

115.3

+0,2

0.2

0.2

+0.1

+0.2

+0.3

V, PRICES, COSTS, AND PROFITS
Unit Labor Costs:
68: Labor cost (cur, dol.) per unit of gross
product (1958 dol.), nonfin.corp.7 . . . . Dollars
1957-59-100..
*62 Labor cost per unit of output rofg
VI. MONEY AND CREDIT
Outstanding Debt:
66 Consumer installment debt
*72. Commercial and industrial loans
outstanding
Interest Rates on Business Loans and
Mortgages:
*67. Bank rates
on short-term business
loans 9(u)
118. Mortgage yields, residential ©

136.59 rl36.78 P136.94

6.35

OTHER SELECTED U.S. SERIES
V. PRICES, COSTS, AND PROFITS
Comprehensive Retail Prices:
81 Consumer prices ©

1957-59=100..

VII. FOREIGN TRADE AND PAYMENTS
89. U.S. balance of payments:7 8
Mil. dollars ...
a. Liquidity balance basis
do
b. Official settlements basis
8
3
88. Merchandise trade balance (inverted ) . .....do
do
86. Exports, excluding military aid
861. Export orders, durables exc. mot. veh.@.
do
862. Export orders, nonelectrical machinery. . . 1957-59=100..
87. General imports
Mil. dollars ...

+324^6
2,620.2
891
234
2,295.6

115.0

P-539
p-1,832
+397.1 +385.8 +436.0
2,601.2 2,570.5 2,660.0
(NA)
p897
r833
(NA)
p240
r!96
2,204.1 2,184.7 2,224-0

-142
-556
-15.5
+1.1
+4.3
+2.5
+0.5

142
1,246
74.4
2.7
19.8
8.1
3.2

-4.7
-2.8
+1.4
+2,2

4.7
31.8
16.4
9.2

+6.9
+1.6
+1.4
+1.9
0.0

6.9
13.7
18.9
17.1
15.6

-88
341
492 -1,803
-50.2
+11.3
58.4 -72.5
-1.2
+3.5
3.8 -0.7
(NA)
+7.7
-6.5
12.4
(NA)
6.3 -16.2 +22.4
+1.8
-4.0
-0.9
3.0

VIII. FEDERAL GOVERNMENT ACTIVITIES
95. Federal surplus (+) or deficit (-),8
nat'l. income and prod. acct. . ..... Ann.rate, bil. dol.
84. Federal cash surplus (+) or deficit (-)•*- • do.,...
83. Federal cash receipts from public
.....do
82. Federal cash payments to public
...
do
101. National 7defense purchases, current
dollars
do
91 Defense Dept. obligations total
; .Mil. dollars ...
90. Defense Dept. oblig., procurement
do
99. New orders, defense products
Bil. dollars ...
92. Military contract awards in U.S
Mil. dollars . . .

+27 !l
177.0
149.9

p-10.3
-15.3
136.8
152.1

-15.3
132.3
167.6

(NA)
(NA)
(KA)

6,518
2,296
2.85
3,109

r69.7
6,595
2,140
r3.33
r3,8SO

6,343
1,903
r3.24
2,662

(NA)
(NA)
P3.24
(MA)

-6.7
2.5
4.3 -42.4
3.9 -22.7
4-4 +1.5

0.0
+11.3
+10.2

2.3 +6.4
+1.2 -3.8
13.9
-6.8 -11.1
27.4
22.5 +16.8 -2.7
24.5 +24.8 -31.4

(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
0.0
(NA)

fSeries included m the 1966 NBER "short list" of indicators. ©Not seasonally adjusted. NA=not available; r =revised; p= preliminary; e -estimated; anticipated.
Series are seasonally adjusted except for those series, indicated by ®, that appear to contain no seasonal movement.
See additional
basic data and notes in
3
table 2
Average percent changes are based on month-to-month (or quarter-to-quarter) percent changes, for the specified periods.
To facilitate interpretations of
eye i cal movements, those series that usually fall when general bu si ness activity rises and rise when business falls are in verted so that rises are shown as declines and
declines as rises (see series 3, 5, 14, 39, 40, 43t 45, 88, 93, and 502). 5 Percent changes are computed in the usual way
but the signs are reversed. See footnote 8 for other
change qualifications.
Average computed with regard to sign.
Average computed without regard to sign. 8 61Tie period varies among the series: however for most
series, the period covered is 1953-65.
'Quarterly series; figures are placed in the middle month of Quarter.
Since basic data for this series are expressed in plus or
minus amounts, the changes are month-to-month (or qMarter-to-ojjarter) differences expressed in the same unit of measure as thebasicdata, rather than in percentages. 9Figures
are placed in the last month of quarter.




Chart 1A

bed

BASIC DATA

MAY 1967

BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 to PRESENT
NBER Leading Indicators
I. EMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT

(Nov.) (Oct.)
P
T

(July) |Aug.)
P
T

Marginal Emt

(July) (Apr.)
P

(May) (Feb.)

T

P

T

Adjustments

42

*1, Avg. workweek, prod, wkrs., mfg. (hours)

41
4039-

700-.

*30. Nonagri. placements, all indus. (thous.)

600 =

500
400J

2. Accession rate, mfg. (per 100 employees)

150-i
5. Avg. weekly initial claims, State unempL insur. (thous.-inverted scale)
200250=
300350400»

O-i
3. Layoff rate, mfg. (per 100 employees-inverted scale)

123-1

1948

49

50

51

52

53

54

55

56

57

58

59

60

61

62

63

64

See 'How to Read Charts 1 and 2,' page 4. Asterisk (*} identifies series on 'short list'. Current data for these series are shown on page 29.




65

66

67

1968

£
8

Chart 1A

E*ASIC DATA

MAY

1967

bed

I! BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 to PRESENT-Continued
NBER Leading Indicators-Continued
IE, FIXED CAPITAL INVESTMENT

(July) (Aug.)
P
T

(Nov.) (Oct.)
P
T

(May) (Feb.)
P T

(July) (Apr.)
P T

*38. Index of net bus. formation (1957-59=100)

13. New bus. incorporations (thousJ

*6. New orders, dur. goods Indus, (bil. dol.)

04. Construction contracts, total value (index:
1957-59-100; MCD moving avg.-5-term)

*10. Contracts and orders, plant and equip, (bil. dol.)

A?"

1948

49

50

51

52

53

54

55

56

57

58

59

60

61

62

63

64

65

See 'How to Read Charts 1 and 2,' page 4. Asterisk (*j identifies series on 'short list'. Current data for these series are shown on pages 29 and 30.


10


66

67

1968

'Chart 1A

bed

MAY

BASIC DATA

1967

BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 to PRESENT-Continued
NBER Leading Indicators -Continued
HI., FIXED CAPITAL INVESTMENT- Continued
(Nov.) jOcti
P
T

(July) (Aug.)
P

T

(July) (Apr)
P T

(May) (Feb.)
P T

11, New capital appropriations, mfg., Q (bit. dol.|

24. New orders, mach. and equip, indus. (bil. dol.

9. Constr. contracts, com. and indus. (mil, sq.
ft. of floor area; M CO'

7. Private nonfarm housing starts (ann
rate, millions; MOD moving avg.-6-term)

*29. New bldg. permits, private
housing units (index: 1957-59=100)

1948
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
See 'How to Read Charts 1 and 2,' page 4. Asterisk (*] identifies series on 'short list'. Current data for these series are shown on page 30.




66

67

1968

11

Chart 1A

BASIC DATA

MAY 1967

bed

BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 to PRESENT-Continued
NBER Leading Indicators-Continued
BE. INVENTORIES AND INVENTORY INVESTMENT

(Nov.) (Oct.)
P

T

(July) (Aug.)
P

T

(July) (Apr.)
P

T

(May) (Feb.)
P T

21. Change in bus. inventories, al! Indus., Q (ann. rate, bil. do I.)
+10-

0-10J

*31. Change in book value, mfg. and trade inventories

+20-1

{ann. rate, bil. M.; MCD moving avg.-5-term)

M (UHN

/IS 4 iff tf 1

+10-

*>

-10-

37. Purchased materials, percent of companies reporting higher inventories

75*

50-

25-

20. Change to book value, mfrs.' inventories of materials and
supplies [ann. rate, bil. del.; MCD moving avg.-6-term)

v

oH

100°

26. Buying policy, prod. mtls.r percent of companies
reporting commitments 60 days or longer
75-

50-

25J
1948
49
«50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
See 'How to Read Charts 1 and 2,' page4: Asterisk {*] identifies series on 'short list'. Current data for these series are shown on page 31.


12.


66

67

1968

Chart 1A

beef

BASIC DATA

MAY 1967

BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 to PRESENT-Continued

NBER Leading Indicators-Continued
BE.INVENTORIES AND INVENTORY INVESTMENT-Continued

P

(July) (Apr.)
P T

(July) (Aug.)

(Nov.) (Oct.)

P

T

T

(May) (Feb.)
P T

32, Vendor performance, percent of companies reporting slower deliveries

25. Chaage in unfilled orders, dur. goods i

(bi). <tol.; NICO moving avg.-4-term)

3C. PRICES, COSTS, AND PROFITS

160-i
140
120

23. Industrial materials prices (index; 1957-59=100)

10080-

-M-

100
90
80
70
60
50-

*I9. Stock prices, 500 common
stocks [index: 1941-43=10)

4030-

20 J

1948

49

50

51

52

53

54

55

56

57

58

59

60

61

62

63

64

65

See 'How to Read Charts 1 and 2,' page 4. Asterisk (*] identifies series on 'short list'. Current data for these series are shown on pages 31 and 32.




66

67

1968

Chart 1A

BASIC DATA

MAY 1967

bed

BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 to PRESENT-Continued
NBER Leading Indicators-Continued
I. PRICES, COSTS, AND PROFITS-Continued

(Nov.) (Oct.)
P

(July) (Aug.)
P

T

(July) fApr.J

T

P

|Ma^] (Feb.)
P

T

T

70-1

60 <

*16. Corporate profits after taxes, Q (ann. rate, bil. do I.]

son
40 <

mcip«j£igi!^^

t

18. Profits per dollar of sales, mfg.f Q (cents)

*17. Ratio, price to unit labor cost, mfg. (index: 1957-59-100)

52

'Hew to




S3

S4

9§

§6

97

58

50

6©

6a

62

63

64

• §eri@s m ash@rt list9, twtmt dati for tl@s§ s@ri@i ire sliowo on paga 32..

6S

66

67

{Chart 1A

bed

BASIC DATA

MAY 1967

BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 to PRESENT-Continued

ER

Indicators-Continued

21. MONEY AND CREDIT

|Nov.) (Oct.)
P

T

98. Change in money supply and time deposits
(ann. rate, percent; MCD moving avg,-6-term)

+10-

85. Change in money supply (ann. rate, percent; MCD moving avg.-6-term)

33. Change in mortgage debt (ann. rate, bil. dol.

*113. Change in consumer installment debt (ann. rate, bil. dol.)

112. Cbange in business loans (ann. rate, bil. dol.; MCD moving avg.-5-term)

0=
-I
-10
1948

49

See 'How t@ IM

5©

51

52

53

54

§5

56

57

58

.\ and a/ page % Asterisk .[*} Identif^g s@ri@§ m 'short list\




59

60

61

62

63

@J

1968

Dyrrsnt data for trigs® series are stow® m

15

Chart 1A

BASIC DATA

MAY 1967

bed

BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 to PRESENT-Continued
NBER Leading Indicators-Continued
[. MONEY AND CREDIT -Continued

(Nov.) (Oct.)
P

(July) (Aug.)

T

P

(July) (Apr.)

T

P

(May) (Feb.)
P

T

T

100-

80 -

total private l w i n g , Q (arm, rate.bil. dol.

60-

CO

Jj

40-

20J

of bus. fateqa |mll. dol.- inverted scale;

" M MCD moving avg.r6-term)

39. Delinquency rate, 30 days and over, total
installment (UPS (per cent-in verted scale)
1.5-

2.0-

2.5-

3.0J
1948

49

SO

51

52

53

54

55

56

57

58

59

See 'How to feed! Charts 1 and 2/ pag©4. Curat data for these series are shown on page 33.


16


6©

61

62

63

64

65

66

67

I960

«

5

Chart IB

bed

BASIC DATA

MAY 1967

BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 to PRESENT-Continued
NBER Roughly Coincident Indicators
I. EMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT

(July) (Apr.)
P T

(July) (Aug.)
P
T

(Nov.) (Oct.)
P
T

(May) (Feb.)
P T

Job Vacancies
600 -|
500-

301. Nonagri. job openings unfilled, BES (thousands)

r~i

400300-

200-1

300 -i
250200-

46. Help-wanted advertising (index: 1957-59=100)

150100J

150 -]
140130-

I 511. Man-hours in nonfarm establishments
I
|ann. rate, biL man-h&urs)
j

120110-

70~

*41. Employees in nonagri
establishments (millions)

6560™
55-

75-

42. Total nonagri. employment Imiliions)

706560-

55
50J
1948

49

50

51

52

53

54

55

56

57

58

59

60

61

62

63

64

65

66

67

1968

9

See 'How to Read Charts 1 and 2,' page 4. Asterisk (*) identifies series on 'short list . Current data for these series are shown on page 34.




17

Chart IB

BASIC DATA

MAY 1967

BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 to PRESENT-Continued

bed

NBER Roughly Coincident Indicators-Continued
I, EMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT-Continued

(Nov.; (Oct.;
P

(July) (Aug.)

(July) (Apr.)
P T

T

Comprehensive Unemployment

(May) (Feb.)
P T

*43. Unemployment rate, totat (percent-inverted scale]

*">/ i

i

45. Avg. weekly insured unemployment rate (percent-inverted scale]

40. Unemployment rate, married mates (percent-inverted scale)
ra

E. PRODUCTION, INCOME, CONSUMPTION, AND TRADE




*50. GNP in 1958 dollars, Q
(ann. rate, bill doCf

*47. Industrial production
f index: 1957^ 59=100)

§4

S3

56

5V

§8

59

60

€1

62

63

64

65

p] SMiftes series on 'short list. Current data for these series are shown on pages 34 and 35,

66

67

1968

Chart IB

bed

BASIC DATA

MAY 1967

BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 to PRESENT-Continued

ioughly Coincident Indicators-Continued
. PRODUCTION, INCOME, CONSUMPTION, AND TRADE-Continued

H »

*52. Persona! incomejanri* _rat«,JH, dol.j

53. Wages and salaries in mining,
rate;W, do

*5i, SaJesjtf retaii
stores (bil. dol.)

i -ji. w,
1S48

49

50

51

§2

53

54

S3

56

57

'
§8

(

59

60

61

62

63

Ssa 'How to Read Charts 1 ant! 2,' page4. Asterisk (*j id@ntifii$ §@re@s en °sM list'. Current data for these series ar@




19

Chart 16

BASIC DATA

MAY 1967

bed

BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 to PRESENT-Continued
NBER Roughly Coincident Indicators-Continued
HI. FIXED CAPITAL INVESTMENT

(Nov.) (Oct.)
P
T

(May) (Feb.)
P T

(July) lApr.)
P T

(July) (Aug.)
P
T

Backlog of Investment Commitments

r^lpF

120-j
10080-

96. Mfrs/ unfilled orders, dur. goods indus. (bil. dot.)

60-

40 -

30-

B

-97. Backlog of cap. appropriations, mfg., Q (bil. dol.)
...—^
Jl S

252015-

II*

10-

. PRICES, COSTS, AND PROFITS

Comprehensive Wholesale Prices

55. Wholesale prices, industrial commodities (index: 1957-59=100)

95™

58] Wholesale prices, mfnt goods (index: 1957-59=100)"

95-

1948

49

50

51

52

53

54

55

56

57

58

59

See 'How to Read Charts 1 and 2,' page 4. Current data for these series are shown on page 36 .

Digitized for 20
FRASER


60

61

62

63

64

65

66

67

1968

Chart IB

bed

BASIC DATA

MAY 1967

BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 to PRESENT-Continued
NBER Roughly Coincident Indicators-Continued
. MONEY AND CREDIT

(Nov.) (Oct.)
P
T

(July] (Apr.)
P T

(July) (Aug.)

P

T

(May) (Feb.
P T

93. Free reserves foil, do!.-inverted scale

114. Treasury bill rate (percent)

116. Corporate bond yields (percent)

115. Treasury bond yields percent)

117, Municipal bond yields [percent)

1948

49

50

51

52

53

54

55

56

57

58

59

60

61

62

63

64

65

66

67

1968

See 'How to Read Charts 1 and 2,' page 4. Current data for these series are shown on page 36.




21

Chart 1C

Wm BASIC DATA
K3

BUSINESS

MAY

1967

CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 to PRESENT-Continued

feed

••Ml NBER Lagging Indicators
I. EMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT
(July! (Apr.]
P I

(July] (Aug.)
P
T

(Nov.) (Oct.)
P
T

(May) (Feb.)
P T

Long Duration Unemployment
*502. Unemployment rate, persons unemployed 15 weeks and ever (percent-inverted scale)-

HI. FIXED CAPITAL INVESTMENT

Investment Expenditures
*61, Bus. expend., new plant and equip., Q (ann. rate, bil. dol.]

expend, (ann. rate, bit. dol.

Et. INVENTORIES AND INVENTORY INVESTMENT

t71J&ffiLyjrfui^mf^^^

65. Book value of mfrs.' inventories, finished goods (bil. dol.

1948

49

50

51

52

53

54

55

56

57

58

59

60

61

62

63

64

See 'H®w to !®ad gharts 1 and 2,' page4. Asterisk [*) identifies series on 'short list'. Current data for these series are shown on page 37.

Digitized22
for FRASER


35

66

67

1968

bed

Chart 1C

BASIC DATA

MAY 1967

BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 to PRESENT-Continued
NBER Lagging Indicators-Continued

3E. PRICES, COSTS, AND PROFffS

(Nov.) (Oct.)
P
f

liuly) (Apr.)
P T

(July) (Aug.)
P I

(May] (Feb.)
P T

*62. Labor cost per unit of output!
mfg. (index: 1957-59=100)

31. MONEY AND CREDIT

66. Consumer installment debt (btl. dot.
60
40
Si-

*72. COm. and ml loans outstanding, weeklyreporting large com. banks (bil. dol.)

6f;
40

Interest Rates on Business Loans and Mortgages




*67. Bank rates on short-term
bus, loans, Q (percent])

118. Mortgage yields, residential (percent)

502

333

5§4

SSS

Si@

Sf7

SSB

2,' pag© 4. Asterisk ['i Uglifies sgrtes 5;s asM Sisr. Current datg f@r these series m® mtm m pag@ 3§.

23

Chart ID

BASIC DATA

MAY 1967

bed

BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 to PRESENT-Continued

Other Selected U.S. Series
a:. PRICES, COSTS, AND PROFITS
(Nov.) (Oct.)
(July) (Aug.)
P

T

P

T

(May) (Feb.)
P T

(July) (Apr.)
P T

120115-

81. Consume pices (index: 1957-59=100) _^S

110105100-

XH. FOREIGN TRADE AND PAYMENTS

89. U.S. balance of payments, Q (bil. do!.)

b. Official settlements basis

-0.5-

88. Merchandise trade balance (bil. dol.-inverted scale; 4-term moving avg.)
0-

10.5 -

+1.0-

1948
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
See 'How to Read Charts 1 and 2,' page 4. Current data for these series are shown on page 39.


24


60

61

62

63

64

65

66

67

1968

Chart (1D

bed

BASIC DATA

MAY 1967

BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 to PRESENT-Continued
Other Selected U.S. Series-Continued
OT. FOREIGN TRADE AND PAYMENTS-Continued
(Nov.) (Oct.)
(July) (Aug.)
(July) (Apr.)
P

P

T

(May) (Feb.)
P

T

T

86. Exports, exc. military aid (bil. dol.;

861. Export orders, durables exc. motor vehicles
(bit. dol.; 4-term moving avg.

10OJ0.6J

i

flfi?

i

';

1

•

:

'•

P if port orders, non^lfif:trinai iD3^1}inpry
(index; 1957-59=100; MCD moving avg. -4-term)

r

^

300q
250-

|

j^^J^ •
f^^

i

H

200-

3.02.52.0 -

87. General imports (bil. dot.; MCD moving avg.-4-term|

**
1.5-

1.0-

1948

49

50

51

52

53

54

55

56

57

58

59

60

61

62

63

64

65

66

€7

1968

See 'How to Read Charts 1 and 2,' page 4. Current data for tnese series are shown on page 39.




25

Chart ID

BASIC DATA

MAY 1967

BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 to PRESENT-Continued

bed

Other Selected U.S. Series-Continued
SOL FEDERAL GOVERNMENT ACTIVITIES

Uuiyj (Apr.)

(July) (Aug.)

|Nov.) (Oct.)
P
T

P

(May) (Feb.!
? T

T

surplus or deficit, naDenaJ income and prg^f acct., Q (am, rate, ML dot]

i
+30"

84. Fed. cash surplus or deficit (arm. rate, bit. do I.; 6-term moving average]

83. Fed. cash receiptsTfrom"public |ann. rate, bf."dat; MCOTnoving avg.-6-term)

82. fed. cash payments to publicjann.jate,
bit. do!.; MCD moving avg.-6-term)

1048
49
See 'How to Seail




51

52

53

94

55

56

B7

S8

59

1 ^u^ 2/ page 4 fiurr@nt data for tfeese series are shown oo page 40.

65

66

67

1968

bed

Chart ID

BASIC DATA

MAY 1967

BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 to PRESENT-Continued
Other Selected US. Series-Continued

FJEHERAL GOVERNMENT ACTIVITIES-Continued

(Nov.) [Oct.)

(July) Wpr.J
P

(May) (Fab.)

T

P

T

'

^

91. Defense Dept. oblig,, total (bil,dol.;MCD moving avg.-6-term)

90. Defense Dept. oblig., procurement (bit. (tot.; MCO moving avg.-6-term)

99. Hew orders, defense products |bil. do).; MCD moving avg.-6-term]
.

.....

. ...

.

.

.

,

.-J

92. Military contract awards in U.S. (nil. dot.; MCD moving avg.-6-term)

SO

51

s 'How to m^ Etsarts 1 and) 2/




53

54

5§

S6

S7

§S

59

Current data for these series ire show® m page 40.

60

61

62

,

.LA

51=4

Chart IE

BASIC DATA

MAY 1967

bed

BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 to PRESENT-Continued
International Comparisons
. INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION INDEXES

(May) (Feb.)
P T

(July) (Apr.)
P T

(July) (Aug.)
P
T

(Nov.) (Oct.)
P
T

47. Uhitif States (index; 1957*59=100)-

|23. Canada (index:

122. United Kingdom
(index; 1957-59=100)

France (index: 1957-59=100)

125. West Germany
(index: 1957-59=100)

128. Japan (index; 1957-59=100)

121. OECD Europ**fl~eowrtries
(index: 1957-59-100)

127. Italy (index: 1957-59-100)

1948

49

50

51

52

53

54

55

56

57

58

59

See 'How to Read Charts 1 and 2,' page 4. Current data for these series are shown on page 41.


9ft


60

62

63

64

65

66

67

1968

Table 2A

beef

BASIC DATA
MAY 1967

LATEST DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES

NBER Leading Indicators

Major
Economic Process
Minor
Economic Process
Year
and
month

EMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT

FIXED CAPITAL INVESTMENT

Marginal Employment Adjysfmenfs

Formation of Business
Enterprises

*1. Average
workweek of
.production
workers,
manufacturing

*30. Nonagricultural placements;
all industries

2. Accession
rate, manufacturing

(Hours)

(Thous.)

(Per 100 employees)

5. Average
weekly initial
claims for unemployment in*
surance, State
programs 1
(Thous.)

3. Layoff rater
manufacturing

(Per 100 employees)

*38. Index of net
13. Number of new
business formation business incorporations

(1957-59=100)

(Number)

1965

October
November
December

41.2
41.4
41.3

1966
January
February
March

41.4^
41.5

April
May
June

"..-

41.5: .
41.5
41.0
41. 4

October
November
December

41.3

April
May
june

.,.

231 1
248
218

1.6
1.5
1.4

106.5 ;
105.7
106.1

16,844
16,901
17,136

4.5
4.9
4.8

209
212
206

1-3
1.3
1.4

105.5
106.1
106.9

16,994
17,606
17,625

.

-4.9
4.9

-.;•

5.2

222
219
182

1.2
1.2
1.2

109.1
109.6
0>109.6

B> 18,087
17,451
17,266

..1.2
1.1

107.6
106.8
106.2

17,057
16,644
16,577

:

:;

:

4.8
5.1

522
513

SO 5 ' 3

July
August
September

1967
January
February
March

:
570
R>600
589

41.5 :

16,664
16,580
17,017

547
544
563

41.0
41.1

-

104.7
105.4
106.2

4.1
4.3
,4.5.

July
August
September

;

1.5
1.4
1.4

541
537
529

41.0
41.2
41.0

:

237
224
224

4.0 " j
4.1
4.4 :

April
May
June

:

16,784
16,854
17,131

535
533
548

522
549
528

4LO

106.5
106.6
106.1

243
248
237

41^2
41.3

41.0
40.3
40.4
P40.5

,:-.

230
196
183

1.7
1.0
1.1

104.8
103.9
102.7

16,074
16,343
15,764

533
530
524

5.1
4.9
4.5

186
194
212

B> i.o
1.1
1.3

103.3
100.6
101.4

16,233
16,206
16,583

534
519

4^2

203
242
256

1.4
1.5
.pi- 7.

102.2
103.2
103.3

16,703
15,987
16,244

(NA)

(NA)

542
543
509

"*•

,,

:

fi>179
185
186

4.6
5.1
5.0

"

4ol9

:

1.5
1.4
1.4

4.0
4.1
4.3

January
February
March

:;

;

,

497;

P474

(NA)

263

-

,

(NA)

July
August
September
October
November
December
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicatedby ®. Current high values are indicated by[B>; for series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3, 5, 14, 39, 40, 43F 45, 93, and 502), current low values are indicated by
E>. Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order, Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover; Series preceded by
an asterisk (*) are included in the 1966 NBER "short list" of indicators. The V indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e" estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
•'•Data exclude Puerto Rico which is included in figures published by source agency.




29

Table 2A

BASIC DATA
MAY 1967

LATEST DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES-Continued

bed

NBER Leading Indicators—Continued

Major
Economic Process

FIXED CAPITAL INVESTMENT-Con.

New Investment Commitments

Economic Process
Year
and
month

*6. Value of
manufacturers'
new orders,
durable goods
industries

94. Index of
construction
contracts, total
value

(Bil.dol.)

(1957-59=100)

11. Newly ap*10. Contracts
. proved capital
and orders for
plant and equip- appropriations,
1,000 manufacment
turing corporations
(Bil. dol.)
(Bil.dol.)

1965
January
February
March

21.27
21.13
21.71

137
140
141

4.72
4.67
4.84

5. '66

April
May
June

22.0-4
20.99
21.31

152
145
139

4.98
5.02
4.81

July
August
September

22.20
21.51
22.16

149

October
November
December

24. Value of
manufacturers1
new orders, machinery and
equipment industries
(Bil.dol.)

3.96
3.80

9. Construction 7. New private
contracts, com- nonfarm housing
mercial and in- units started1
dustrial buildings
(Mil. sq.ft.
floor space) (Ann. rate ,thous.)

*29. Index of
new private
housing units authorized by local
building permits3
(1957-59=100)

4.02

52.94
54.89
54.41

1,417
1,468
1,465'

112.3
108.2
109.9

5*.79

4.08
4.07
4.09

57.74
57.52
57.72

1,532
1,501
1,539

106.2
109.7
109.9

s!S5

147

5.16
4.90
5.15

4.35
4.16
4.15

56.68
52.00
62.97

1,447
1,409
1,436

108.9
108. 4*
104.1

22. &
22.39
23. 40

147
141
153

5.13
5.05
5.35

6.32

4.25
4.32
4.58

60.55
61.74
64.13

1,380
1,531
1,735

109.8
112.9
114.0

23.58
23.7424.89

152
157
158

5.46
5.71
5.66

6.*36

4.45
4.58
4.59

62.29
K>70.42
67.99

1,585
1,349
1,538

110.7
105.6
111.9

5.91
5.77
5.57

E> viii

4.79
4.84
4.75

68.28
64.00
65.85

1,481
1,287
1,261

104.6
96.9
84.2

63.54
63.52
64.40

1,068
1,084
1,050

81.3
74.5
64.7

.,.-

139

1966
January
February
March
. April
May
June
July
August
September
October... ,
November
December

1967
January
February
March
April
May
June

24.20
24.28
24.59

B>161
^ 156
147

24.37
23.51
|£>,25.27

147
139
146

6.10
5.87
fp> 6.28

6^08

24.24
23.03
23.96

139
130
133

5.76
5.52
5.45

r6.24

4.82
4.65
4.60

54.76
64.42
60.21

826
993
1,066

63.0
63.1
67.0

22.07
P22.33
' r22.12

126
143
x
^9

r5.40
r5.34
p5.51

p5*.*57

4.54
r4.24
r4.33

49.09
57.84
56.14

1,266
r 1,147
rl,134

83.1
78.9
r81.9

p22.24

138

P5.41

P4.48

59.04

pl,154

p88.5

g> 5.09
4.81
4.91

July.....
August
September
October
November
December
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ® . Current high values are indicated by BC>; for series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3, 5, 14, 39, 40, 43, 45, 93, and 502). current low values are indicated by
. Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. Series preceded by
an asterisk (*) are included in the 1966 NBER "short list" of indicators. The Y indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e" estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
1

High value (1,753) vas reached in January 1964.
High value (124.6) was reached in February 1964.

3

30



Table 2A

bed

BASIC DATA

MAY 1967

LATEST DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES-Continued

NBER Leading Indicators—Continued

Major
Economic Process
Minor
Economic Process

INVENTORIES AND INVENTORY INVESTMENT

Inventory Investment and Purchasing
21. Change in
20. Change in
37. Purchased ma26. Production
*31. Change in
business invenbook value of 1
materials, perbook value of
terials, percent of
tories after valmanufacturing
manufacturers
cent of compacompanies reportinventories of
and trade invenuation adjustnies reporting
ing higher
inven1
ment, all induscommitments 60
tories, total
materials2 and
tories
tries
supplies
days or longer®
(Ann. rate, bil.dol.) (Ann. rate, bil.dol.) (Percent reporting) (Ann. rate, bil.dol.) (Percent reporting)

Year
and
month

1965
January
February
March

+9^5

April
May
June

+f! 6

July
August
September

+8.7

October . .
November
December
1966
January
February .
March

...

:

July
August
September
November
December
1967
January
February .
March...

t9'.i.

April
May
June

68
72
66

+0.32
+0.81

+8.8
+8.4
+7,8

61
59
56

+5.3
+1.5
-0.5

67
65
62

72
70
66

+0.84
+0.50
+0.58

+0.7

+1.4 ;

+3.1

62
63
61

62
64
62

+0.38
+0.32
+1.24

49

+0.9
+1.0
+2.0

63
63
63

60
66
72

+1.28
+0.78
+1.09

49
47
52

+0.9
+1.2
+0.8

68
67
68

51
53
54

+3.8
+3.4
+4.0

69
70
72

82
75
69

+9.6

58
58
54

+1.1
+5.4
+3.3

73
73
72

70
73
72

+1.34
+0.64
g> +2.30

+18.6
+17*6
+20.3

58
57 :
56

+1.4
+2.0
+1.6

E> 75
73
70

70
64
57

+0.79
-0.21
+0.24

+12.5
r+2.3
pn-2,0

47
43
46

+2.2
r-1.0.
p-0.2

72
67
68

48
51
38

-0.99
r-0.30
r-0.93

(NA)

37
39

(NA)

67

39

p-0.25

::::

54
:•

,-

-

;

:

B>

.v

+12*8

+13.6
. : .

,.+15,9

58
57
47
49

+17.7
+16.9 • • = • '

•g> +16 !i'

r+5.6

65 i
65
68

+8.1
+11.7
+13.1

+12^3

(Bil. dot.)

+1.0
+0.4
+2,5

.-,+19.4

+8.9

April
May
June

October

v

(Percent reporting)

61
62
57

+6.3
+10.2
;

25. Change in
unfilled orders,
durable goods
industries

+12*6
+3.8
+14.9

+11.5
+12; 2 •*•
+2.3

+10 ! 4

32. Vendor performance, percent of
companies reporting
slower deliveries,®

-

•-

74
_ 85
B> 86

+0.44

+1.27
+1.31
+1.65
+1.49
+1.36
+1.70

July
August
September
October
November
December
NOTE' Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicatedby ® . Currenthigh values are indicated byB>- for series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3, 5, 14, 39, 40, 43, 45, 93, and 502), current low values are indicated by
JC>. Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. Series preceded by
an asterisk (*) are included in the 1966 NBER "short list" of indicators. The V indicates revised: "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA , not available.
1
High value (63) was reached in November 1964.
2
High value (+6.6) was reached in December 1961.



31

Table 2A

BASIC DATA
MAY 1967

LATEST DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES-Continued

bed

NBER Leading Indicators— Continued

Major
Economic Process
Minor
Sensitive Commodity :
Economic Process
Prices
Year
and
month

PRICES, COSTS, AND PROFITS

*19. Index of stock
*23. Index of industrial materials prices® prices, 500 common
stocks ©

(1957-59 = 100)

Profits and Profit Margins

Stock Prices

(1941-43=10)

*16, Corporate profits
after taxes

(Ann. rate, bit. dol )

22. Ratio of profits to
income originating,
corporate, all industries
(Percent)

18. Profits (before
taxes) per dollar of
sales, all manufacturing corporations

*17. Ratio, price to
unit labor cost index,
manufacturing

(Cents)

(1957-59=100)

1965
January
February
March

110.6
110.7
113.2

86.12
86.75
86.83

43.' 8

13.'6

9.*6

102.9
102.9
103.1

April
May
June

116.7
116.9
115.3

87.97
89.28
85.04

43 '.8

12*.9

9*.3

103.5
103.5
104.4

July
August
September

114.6
115.2
114.8

84.91
86.49
89.38

44*.l

12.9

9*.4

104.8
104.7
103.9

October
November
December
1966
January
February
March

115.0
115.5
117.1

91.39
92.15
91.73

46 '.3

13^3

9.*5

103.8
103.8
104.8

120.5
122.9
fi^*123.
5

g>93.32
92.69
88.88

48! 7

6> 13^3

£> 9 ^ 8

104.8
105.0
105.2

April
May
June

121.5
118.3
118.4

91.60
86.78
86.06

jfc>48!7

13!!

9.*3

104.8
105.2
105.3

July
August
September

118.8
111.7
108.9

85.84
80.65
77.81

48.2

•12.B

9!2

October
November
December

106.3
105.9
105.8

77.13
80.99
81.33

48.1

12.6

9^6

January
February
March

106.8
105.2
102.5

84.45
87.36
89.42

P45.3

pll.8

(NA)

April
May
June

100.1
X
99.0

K> 105.9
105.3
104.7
104.6
103.6
103.6

1967

2

90.96
92.09

102.4
rlOl.8
rl01.5
pl01.2

July
August
September
October
November
December
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ®. Current high values are indicated by[[t>; for series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3, 5, 14, 39, 40, 43, 45, 93, and 502), current low values are indicated by
E>. Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. Series preceded by
an asterisk (*) are included in the 1966 NBER "short list" of indicators. The V indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available,
/Average for May 17, 18, and 19.
* 3 Average for May 18, 19, and 22.
32




Table 2A

bed

BASIC DATA

MAY 1967

LATEST DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES-Continued
NBER Leading Indicators—Continued

Major
Economic Process
Minor
Economic Process

MONEY AND CREDIT

Flows of Money and Credit
98, Change in
money supply
and time
deposits

Year
and
month

(Ann. rate,
percent)
1965
January
February
March

+8.76
+8.76
+7.44

Credit Difficulties

33. Net change *113. Net change 112. Change in
85. Change in
total U.S. money in morgage debt in consumer inbusiness loans
supply
held by fin. inst. stallment debt
and life insurance companies1
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)

(Ann. rate,
percent)
0.00
+0.72
+3.72

:

(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
+7.38

(Ann. rate,
bil. dolJ

110. Total private borrowing

14. Current lia- 39. Delinquency
bilities of busirate, 30 days
ness failures2 and over, total
installment loans'

(Ann. rate,
mil, doL)

(Mif.dol.)

+7.16
+7.70

+9.90
+12.67
+11.34

62,100

84.54
107.57
146.29

+23.14

B> +8.94
+7.87
+7.14

+7*68
+10.38
+10.09

69,232

79.51
139.09
135.66

+20.57+18.80
+21.01

April
May
June

+8.16
+4.08
+10.56

+5.28
-2.28
+7.44:

July
August
September

+9.72
+10.80
+10.68

+5.16
+4.44
+8.04

+19.85
+21.19
+22,03

+8.69
+7.87
+8,23

+14-12
+5.39
+7.87

64,688

120.64
128.98
108.56

October
November
December
1966
January
February
March

+12.60
+8,52
+11.52

+8.04
+2.88
+11.64

+20.76
+21.70
+22.76

+7.44
+8.39
+7.61

+7.45
+6.96
+5.30

67,836

85.67
66.65
128.06

+5.76
+1.44
+7.80

+22,96
+23.22
+22.43

+7.16
+6.46
+7.79

+13.72
+6.24
+8.77

r66,924

111.67
94.59
98.73

April
May
June

+13.20
+3.36
+10.08

+11.28
-4.92
+6.36

+20.52
+17.75
r+15.17

+6.37
+5.92
+6.59

+8.48
+9.59
r+17.69

§£> r77,784

106.93
92.41
111.23

July
August
September

+0.36
+4.80
+'5.16

-10.56
0.00
+6.36

r+13.09
+12.82
+11.47

+6.77
+7.22
+5.70

g> r+21.11
+3.28
+0.67

r56,320

62.84
159.29
128.77

October
November
December
1967
January
February
March

-4.44
-1.44
+8.52

-6.36
-2.88
+7.80

+10.15
+10,06
+7.15

+4.56
+5.33
+3.85

+5.93
+2.63
+0.14

r50,524

128.02
116.90
194.09

+6.60
+12.72
g> r+16.20

-4.92
+5.64
g>r+l6.92

+14.16
r+12.13
p+11.75

+3.36
+2.59
+3.17

+6.01
r+0.86
r+6.83

p60,372

p+4.56

P-4.92

(NA)

P+9.25

+6.48;
+3.36
+7.92

April
May
June
July
August
September

.-,:

+20.11
+19.67

(NA)

!

(Percent)

1.77
1.71
I.U

1.82
1.85
l!65

i'.72
1.78
ll76
l!?6

1.79
l!75

118.61
111.23
108.87

l!82

110.80

(NA)

*

October
November
December
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. ..Unadjusted series are indicated by ® . Currenthigh values are indicated by^>; forseriesthat move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3, 5, 14, 39, 40, 43, 45, 93, and 502),\current low values are indicated by
Series numbers are for identification ,only and do net-reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. Series preceded by
an asterisk (*} are included in the 1966 NBER "short list" of indicators, The V indicates revised: "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
1

High value (24.02)- was reached in October 1963.
High value (52.86) was reached in August 1963.

3

High value (1.57) was reached in May 1963.

3




33

Table 2B

BASIC DATA

MAY 1967

LATEST DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES-Continued
NBER Roughly Coincident Indicators

Major
Economic ProcBss
Minor
Economic Process
Year
and
month

EMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT

511. Man-hours
in nonfarm establishments, all
employees

*41. Number of
employees in
nonagricultural
establishments

42. Total nonagricultural
employment,
labor force
survey

*43. Unemployment rate, total

45. Average
weekly insured
unemployment
rate, State1
programs

40. Unemployment rate,
married males

(1957-59=100)

(Ann. rate, bil.
man-hours)

(Thous.)

(Thous.)

(Percent)

(Percent)

(Percent)

301. Nonagricul- 46. Index of
tural job openhelp-wanted advertising in
ings unfilled
newspapers

(Thous.)

Comprehensive Unemployment

Comprehensive Employment

Job Vacancies

1965
January
February
March

268
267
270

137
145
148

123.22
123.98
124.44

59,489
59,777
60,072

65,841
65,863
66,150

4.8
5.0
4.7

3.3
3.3
3.2

2.7
2.6
2.5

April
May
June

279
285
280

143
145
146

124.11
124.68
124.75

60,152
60,363
60,623

66,109
66,169
66,582

4.8
4.6
4.6

3.1
3.0
2.9

2.5
2.5
2.4

July
August
September

285
313
338

145
152
160

124.96
125.87
126.14

60,841
61,021
61,180

67,061
66,961
67,017

4.5
4.4
4.4

3.0
3.0
2.9

2.3
2.5
2.2

October
November
December
1966
January
February
March

354
359
378

168
181
186

126.59
127.49
128.30

61,437
61,864
62,241

67,197
67,681
67,950

4.3
4.1
4.0

2.7
2.6
2.6

2.1
2.0
1.9

392
403
428

128.70
129.75
130.72

62,469
62,811
63,247

68,266
68,186
68,153

3.9
3.7
3.8

2.6
2.6
2.3

1.9
1.9
1.9

April
May
June

430
425
421

189
185
184

130.07
130.26
131.66

63,350
63,517
63,983

68,343
68,351
68,749

3.7
3.9
3.9

2.1
2.1
2.1

1.8
1.8
1.9

420
426
g>438

186
189
189

131.44
132,18
131.84

64,072
64,199
64,168

68,920
69,206
69,309

3.9
3.8
3.7

2.4
2.4
2.1

2.0
2.0
1.9

433
417
406

193
194
193

132.26
133-12
133.08

64,466
64,823
65,076

69,420
70,005
69,882

g>3'.5
3.7

*>£?

2.4

1.9
1.7
1.7

393
374
364

189
190
rl84

rl34.03
r!33.52
r!33.50

65,381
r 65, 497
r65,513

70,240
te>70,247
69,892

3.7
3.7
3.6

2.4
2.4
2.6

1.7
B> 1.6
1.7

P353

piai

P133.16

B>P65,611

70,020

3,7

2.6

1.9

July
August
September
October
November
December
1967
January
February
March
April
May
June

184
191
B> 201

fi>

July
August
September
October ,
November
December
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicatedby ®. Current high values are indicated by(FC>; forseriesthat move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3, 5, 14, 39, 40, 43, 45, 93, and 502), current low values are indicated by
[tt>r. Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. Series preceded by
an asterisk (*) are included in the 1966 NBER "short list" of indicators. The V indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available,
x
Data exclude Puerto Rico which is included in figures published by source agency.

34



Table 2B

bed

BASIC DATA

MAY 1967

LATEST DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES-Continued
NBER itmaghl^ Coincident Indicators—Continued

Major

SONSUNTON, JIID TRADE

MinOS* •

49, Gross national product
in current dollars

Year
and
month

(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)

1965
January
February
March

660 '8

*50. Gross na- *47. Index of intional product dustrial producin 1958 dollars tion
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)

Ciipnlieisiivi Consumption and Trace

Comprehensive income

£ompr§SiiJ»i Pr®ftaets®i

Economic ftoces

(1957-59=100)

••138.8
139.6
HO. 9

60(X3

*52. Personal
income

*816. Manufacturing and
trade sales

53. Wages and
salaries in mining, manufacturing, and construction
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)

516,7
517.3
520.1

:

137.0
138.5
139.3

(Mil.dol.)

:

57. Final sales *54. Sales of re(series 49 minus tail stores
series 21)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dot.)

(Mil.dol.)

76,867
76,558 :
78,734

651^4

22,936
23,076
22,856

138.5
140.0
141.0

78,330
78,643 1
78,805

665/3

22,84C)
23,31''
23,322

141.3
142.4

80,776
79,685
79,610

677^8 I

23,66£
23,585
23,753

H4.2
146,5 :
147.8

80,655
82,214
83,591

694.' 6

24,330
24,647
24,704

149.3
151.1
152.6

84,727
84,530
86,991

712.3

25,081
25,049
25,536

April
May
June

67.^9.

607,8

July
August
September

686^5

6is!a

144.3
144-9
144.1

October
November
December

704^4

631,2

145.5
146.7
: 149.0

547.2
553.2
558.2

721 [a

640^5

150.6
152.4

560.2
564.7
569.0

•732.3"

643! 5

153.9
155.3
156.5 '

570.5
573.0
577.2

153.2
154.0 :
' 155.3

85,455
85,426
86,957

72o!o

24,949
24,475
25,394

157.2
158,0
157.7

580.0
585.4
590,0

: : : : i55.4 ,
157.1
158.0

86,678
86,995
86,775

735!4

25,362
25,572
25,703

158.9
158.6
|> 159.0

594.4
598.5
601.8

158.9
159.7
160.2

87,066
86,699
K> 37,875

742*.9

25,550
25,610
25,368

rl58,l:
rl56,4
156.4

r607.,l
r609.3
r6l2.7

K> 161.2
160.2
• 160.6

87,386
r 86, 299
p87,371

|f> r758!l

25,687
r 25, 470
g> r25,771

P155.9

8>p6l4.i;

pl60.2

1966
January
February
March
April
May
June

• 141.0
HI. 8

;

:

:

745:3

October
November
December

759^3

649 '<2

:1
'Its* 65?! 2==

3*i

; : : : 153.7

."..

July
August
September

U

522.5
528.0
532.2

]

:

535.4
537.8
552.5

; 142,7
:.

1967
January
February
March
April
Mav
June

g> r763*.7

r656/7

I

(NA)

p25,667 !

.......

July
August
September
October.,
November
December
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ® . Current high values are indicated bytB>- forsertesthatmove counter to movements in general business activity (series 3, 5, 14, a, 40, 43, 45, 93, and 502),current low values are indicated ty
te> Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. Series- preceded by
an asterisk (*) are included in the 1966 NBER "short list" of indicators, The V indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a , anticipated; and m , not available.




35

Table 2B

BASIC DATA

MAY 1967

LATEST DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES-Continued

bed

NBER Roughly Coincident Indicators—Continued

Major
Economic Process
Minor
Economic Process
Year
and
month

FIXED CAPITAL
INVESTMENT

PRICES, COSTS, AND
PROFITS

Backlog of Investment
Commitments

Comprehensive Wholesale
Prices

96. Manufacturers' unfilled
orders, durable
goods industries
(Bil.dol.)

97, Backlog
of capital
appropriations, manufacturing

55. Index of
wholesale
prices, industrial commodities®

(Bil.dol.)

(1957-59=100) (1957-59=100)

58. Index of
wholesale
prices, manufactured
goods ®

MONEY AND CREDIT

Bank
Reserves

Money Market Interest Rates

93. Free
reserves ®

114, Treasury
bill rate®

116. Corporate bond
yields ®

(Mil.dol.)

(Percent)

(Percent)

115, Treasury 117. Municipal
bond yields® bond yields ©

(Percent)

(Percent)

Revised1

1965
January
February
March

54.28
55.09
55.53

April
May
June

56.37
56.88
57.45

July
August
September

57.83
58.15
59.38

October
November
December
1966
January
February
March

60.66
61.44
62.53

April
May
June

68.25
69.61
71.31

July
August
September

72/65
73.29
75.59

October
November
December . . ,
1967
January
February
March. .
April
May
June

63.80
65.11
66.76

76.38
76.17
fc>76.42
75.43
r75.13
r74.20
P73.95

101.8
101.8
101.8

+106
+36
-75

3.83
3.93
3.94

4.45
4.45
4.49

4.14
4.16

13*85

101.9
101.9
102.0

4.15

3.06
3.09
3.18

15.26

102,1
102.3
102.5

102.1
102.4
103.0

-105
-180
-182

3.93
3.90
3.81

4.48
4.52
4.57

4.15
4.14
4.H

3.15
3.17
3.24

16*37'

102.5
102.7
102.7

103.1
103.2
103.2

-174
-134
-144

3.83
3.84
3.91

4.57
4.66
4.71

4.15
4.19
4.25

* 3.27
3.24
3.35

17.72

102.8
103.2
103.2

103.4
103.7
104.1

-146
-83
-2

4.03
4.08
4.36

4.70
4.75
4.92

4.28
4.34
4.43

3.40
3.46
3.54

18*59

103.5
103.8
104.0

104.4
104.9
105.0

-44
-107
-246

4.60
4.67
4.63

4.93
5.09
5.33

4.43
4.61
4.63

3.52
3.64
3.72

20! 31

104.3
104.7
104.9

105.1
105.5
105.6

-268
-352
-352

4.61
4.64
4.54

5.38
5.55
5.67

4.55
4.57
4.63

3.56
3.65
3.77

20.54

105.2
105.2
105.2

106.0
106.4
106.4

-362
-390
-368

4.86
4.93
5.36

4.75
£>4.80
4.79

3.95
4.12
£>4.12

g>20.72

105.3
105.5
105.5

106.3
106.2
106.2

6.04
6.11
5.98

4.70
4.74
4.65

3.94
3.86
3.86

p2o'.32

105.8
106.0
106.0

106.4
B>106.4
106.3

-16
-4
r+236

4.76
4.55
4.29

5.53
5.35
5.55

4.40
4.47
4.45

3.54
3.52
3.55

106.2

p+175

3.85

5.59

4.51

3.60

|C> 106.0

8> -431 B> 5.39
-222
5.34
5.01
-165

5.81
6.04
|£>6.U

July
August
September
October
November
December
NOTE; Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ©. Current high values are indicated byE>; for series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3, 5, 14, 39, 40, 43, 45, 93, and 502), current low values are indicated by
B>. Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. Series preceded by
an asterisk (*) are included in the 1966 NBER "short list" of indicators. The V indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available,
•"•See "New Features and Changes for This Issue," page v.
36



Table 2C

bed

BASIC DATA

MAY 1967

LATEST DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES-Continued

NBER Lagging Indicators

Major
Economic Process
Minor
Economic Process
Year
and
month

EMPLOYMENT AND
UNEMPLOYMENT

FIXED CAPITAL INVESTMENT

INVENTORIES AND INVENTORY INVESTMENT

Long-Duration
Unemployment

~ Investment Expenditures

Inventories

*502. Unemployment rate,
persons unemployed 15
weeks and over

*61. Business expenditures on new plant and
equipment, total

505. Machinery and equipment sales and business
construction expenditures

*71. Manufacturing and
trade inventories, book
value

(Percent)

(Ann. rate, bil. dol.)

(Ann. rate, bil, dol.)

(Bil. dol.)

1965
January
February
March

1.2
1.1

April
May
June

1.1
1,0
1.1

July
August
September

0.9
1.0
1,0

October
November
December
1966
January
February
March

0.9
0.9
0,9

' " 5 5 .'35

0.8
0.8
0.8

' : '58!66

1.1

..,

65, Manufacturers1 inventories of finished goods,
book value

(Bil. dol.)

60.01
60.66
63.24

112.10
112.42
113.66

22.36
22.43
22.51

50. '35

63.12
62.73
62.87

114.39
115.09
115.74

22.29
22.36
22.34

52.75

64.8!
62.89
65.27

116.70
117.71
117.91

22.55
22.53
22.61

65.74
67,47
69.94

118.43
119.28
120.90

22.66
22.86
23.14

70.32
69.74
72.67

121.57
122.54
123.63

23.45
23.62
23.81

6o!io

71.34
70.52 :
72.01

124.70
126.18
127.58

23.84
24.07
24.14

49.'66

:

:

April
May
June

0.8
0.7
0.6

July
August
September

0.6
0.6
0.6

61 !25

73.57
73.39
74.39

128.71
130.04
130.84

24.50
24.67
24.88

October
November
December
1967
January
February
March

0.7
0.6
0.6

fE> 62.80

74.18
73.84
UJ2

132.39
133.86
135.55

25.08
25.54
26.00

0.6
0.6
0.6

a62!60

g> 75.80
75.44
p75.H

136.59
r!36.78
jj£> P136.94

26.40
r26.67
g>p26.84

April
May
June

•

* ••

(NA)

&>0.6

(NA)

(NA)

a62*.25

July....
August
September
October
November
December
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicatedby ® . Currenthigh values are indicated by(Bt>- for series that move counter to movements in general business activity {series 3, 5, 14, 39, 40, 43, 45, 93, and 502), current low values are indicated by
E>. Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. Series preceded by
an asterisk (*) are included in the 1966 NBER "short list" of indicators. The V indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e" estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA , not available.




37

Table 2C

BASIC DATA

MAY 1967

LATEST DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES-Continued

bed

NBER Lagging Indicators—Continued

Major
Economic Process
Minor
Economic Process

Unit Labor Costs
:

Year
and
month

1965
January
February
March

*62. Index of labor
cost per unit of butput, manufacturing

66. Consumer installment debt

(Dollars)

(1957-59=100)

(Mil. dol.)

.662

.666

July....
August
September

.665

.665

.673

April
May
June

.684

July
August
September

.692

October
November
December
1967
January
February
March.
April
May .;
June

.696

B>P-713

Interest Rates on Business Loans
and Mortgages

Outstanding Debt

68. Labor cost (cur.
dol.)per unit of gross
product (1958 dol.),
nonfinancial corporations

April
May
June

October
November
December
1966
January
February
March

MONEY AND CREDIT

PRICES, COSTS, AND PROFITS

*72. Commercial and
industrial loans outstanding, weekly reporting large commercial banks
(Mil. dol.)

98.9
98.9
98.7

60,069
60,666
61,308

44,175
45,205

98.6
98.9
98.7

62,053
62,709
63,304

46,793
47,497
48,764

98.4
98.6
99.3

64,028
64,684
65,370

49,129
49,840
50,478

99.6
99.9
99.3

65,990
66,689
67,323

50,946
51,346
52,174

99.6
99.9
99.8

67,920
68,458
69,107

53,223
53,715
54,491

100.3
100.3
100.3

69,638
70,131
70,680

55,086
56,102
r57 f 842

100.1
101.0
101.6

71,244
71,846
72,321

59,348
58,982
59,349

101.6
102.5
102.5

72,701
73,145
73,466

59,879
60,010
59,732

103.9
rl04.5
r!04.7

73,746
73,962
g> 74,226

60,754
60,525
61,167

B>pl04.9

(NA)

46,170

|£>p62,407

*67, Bank rates on
short-term business
loans, 19 cities ©

118. Mortgage yields,
residential®

(Percent)

(Percent)

4*.97

5.45
5.45
5.45

4.*99

5.45
5.45
5.44

5^66

5.44
5.45
5.46

5*.27

5.49
5.51
5.62

5.*55

5.70
(NA)
6.00

i.S2

(NA)
6.32
6.45

6.30

6.51
6.58
6.63

E> 6.'31

(NA)
g>6.8l
6.77

*6.13

6.62
6.46
6.35
6.29

July
August
September
October
November
December
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement, Unadjusted series are indicatedby ©. Currenthigh values are indicated by B>; for series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3, 5, 14, 39, 40, 43, 45, 93, and 502), current low values are indicated by
E>. Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order, Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover, Series preceded by
an asterisk (Tare included in the 1966 NBER "short list" of indicators. The V indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
1
This figure is based on data for 35 cities and refers to the middle of the month, therefore it is not comparable with earlier
figures.

38




Table 2D

bed

BASIC DATA

MAY 1967

LATEST DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES-Continued
Other Selected U.S. Series

Major
PRICES, COSTS,
Economic Process AND PROFITS
Minor
Comprehensive
Economic Process Retail Prices
81. index of consumer prices ®
Year
and
month
(1957-59 = 100)

FOREIGN TRADE AND PAYMENTS

Foreign Trade and Payments
89. Excess of receipts (+) or
payments (-) in U.S. balance
of payments
b. Official
a. Liquidity
balance basis
settlements
basis
(Mil. dol.)
(Mil. dol.)

88. Merchandise
trade balance
(series 86 minus
series 87)
(Mil. dol,)

86. Exports, ex- 861. Manufactur- 862. Index of
export orders,
cluding military ers' new orders
aid shipments, for export, durable nonelectrical
goods except mo- machinery
total
tor vehicles and
parts ®
(Mil. dol.)
(Mil. dol.)
(1957-59=100)

87. General imports, total

(Mil. dol.)

1965
January
February
March

108,9
108.9
109.0

-697

-618

+28.5
+16.7
+878.0

1,227.5
1,622.7
2,738.9

603
729
694

228
235
242

1,199.0
1,606.0
1,860.9

April.......
May..
June

109.3
109.6
110.1

+226

+239

+595.0
+502.7
+386.5

2,406,3
. 2,299.3
2,234.7

720
718
899

238
241
238

1,811.3
1,796.6
1,848.2

July
August
September

110.2
110.0
110*2

-534

+232

+557.7
+503.6
+433.3

2,299.5
2,328.9
2,291.3

829
785
722

241
245
231

1,741.8
1,825.3
1,858.0

October
November
December
1966
January
February
March

110. 4

-332

-1,158

+464.5
+437.5
+451.1

2,349.3
2,378.1
2,362.2

705
891
984

228
234
233

1,884.8
1,940.6
1,911.1

111.0
111.6
112.0

r-432

+326.6
+368.6
+500,9

2,274.2
2,373.7
2,568.6

852
849
904

237
201
227

1,947.6

r-640

April
May
June

112.5
112.6
112.9

r-112

r-165

+250.0
+348.2
+354.5

2,358.9
2,410.8
2,489,5

749
976
1,078

195
217
217

2,108.9
2,062.6
2,135.0

July
August
September

113.3
113,8
114,1

r-164

r+870

+251.4
+342.4
+240.4

2,456,0
2,455.0
2,541.6

805
826
1,059

201
199
200

2,204.6
2,112.6
2,301.2

114.5
114,6
114,7

r-451:

F-29

+320.3
+294.7
+183.5

2,582.7
2,486.2
2,414.7

865
785
1,200

240
235
225

2,262.4
2,191.5
2,231.2

+324.6
+397.1
+385.8

2,620.2
2,601.2
2,570.5

891
r833
p897

234

p240

2,295.6
2,204.1
2,lfc4.7

+436.0

2,660.0

(NA)

(NA)

2,224.0

110.6
111.0

:

October
November
December
1967
January.
February
March

:
114*7
, 114.8
115.6

115,3

April
May
June
July
August
September

:

:
p-539

P-M32

-

r!96

2,005.1
2,067.7

;

October
November
December
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ® , Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order, Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.




39

Table 20

BASIC DATA

MAY 1967

LATEST DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES-Continued

bed

Other Selected U.S. Series—Continued

Major
Economic Process
Minor
Economic Process
Year
and
month

1965
January....
February
March

FEDERAL GOVERNMENT ACTIVITIES

Federal Government Activities
95. Federal
84. Federal
surplus (+)
cash surplus (+),
ordeficit(-), or deficit (-)
national income and product account
(Ann, rate,
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
bil.dol.)

+4*. 5

101. National 91. Defense
83. Federal 82. Federal
cash receipts cash payments defense pur- Department obchases, cur- ligations, total
from the pub- to the public
rent dollars
lic

99. New
90. Defense
Department ob- orders, defense
products
ligations,
procurement

92, Military
prime contract
awards to U.S.
business firms

(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)

-11.1
-4.6

H0.9
117.6

48.' 2

+10.4

128.2

122.0
122.2
117.8

4,278
3,839
4,624

1,005
700
1,355

2.37
2.44
2.46

1,830
1,628
1,874

(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)

(MIL dot.)

(Mil.dol.)

(Bil.dol.)

(Mil.dol.)

April
May
June

+4.4

+18.8
-11.2
-4.6

144.4
118.1
129.3

125.6
129.3
133.9

49.'l

4,593
4,630
4,520

1,444
1,402
1,254

3.24
2.46
2.58

2,926
2,025
2,438

July
August
September

-2^5

-3.4
-3.8
-10.3

116.1
125.0
126.6

119.5
128.8
136.9

50.7

4,258
5,223
5,276

1,128
1,741
1,732

2.62
2.81
3,45

2,699
2,770
2,465

-o!a

-10.7
-16.7
-1.6

113.6
129.6
125.0

124.3
146.3
126.6

52.5

4,962
4,896
5,669

1,733
1,212
1,882

3.28
2.57
2.53

2,566
2,679
2,938

+2*.3

-22.6
-5.4
-10.7

124.3
137.1
142.8

146.9
142.5
153.5

54.' 6

5,100
5,179
5,879

1,639
1,736
1,904

3.40
3.04
3.38

2,755
2,830
2,640

April
May
June

+3^8

+15.8
-16.2
+44.4

155.2
137.7
182.9

139.4
153.9
138.5

57!l

6,444
^5,447
7,084

2,109
1,620
2,415

3.30
2.91
3.68

3,183
2,968
3,545

July
August
September

-6 .'5

-9.5
-26.5
-8.5

154.8
127.7
153.5

164.3
154.2
162.0

62!6

4,998
7,215
6,579

1,753
2,251
1,866

3.50
3.16
4.67

3,912
2,978
r3,380

-3*.6

+12.8
-32.1
+7.0

156.6
132.1,
152.9

143.8
164.2
145.9

65 .*5

6,059
5,989
6,023

1,931
1,723
1,937

3.31
2.73
3.36

3,303
2,967
r3,5QO

p-l6".3

+27.1
-15.3
-15.3

177.0
136.8
152.3

149.9
152.1
167.6

r69\7

6,518°
6,595
6,343

2,296
2,140
1,903

2.85
r3.33
r3.24

3,109
r3,880
2,662

{NA)

(NA)

P3.24

(NA)

October
November
December
1966
January
February
March

October
November
December
1967
January
February
March
,
April
May
June

(NA)

(NA)

(NA)

July
August
September
October
November
December
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by © . Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover, The V indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA" r not available,

40



Table 2E

bed

BASIC DATA
MAY 1967

LATEST DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES-Continued

International Comparisons

Major
Economic Process
Minor
Economic Process
Year
and
month

INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION INDEXES

Industrial Production Indexes
47. United
States, index
of industrial
production

123, Canada,
index of industrial production

122. United
Kingdom, index
of industrial
production

121. OECD,1
European countries, index of
industrial production

(1957-59 = 100)

(1957-59 = 100)

(1957-59=100)

(1957-59=100) (1957-59=100)

142
141
143

130
129
123

142
142
143

129
128

144 147
14B
149
151
153

1965
January
February
March

;

;

April
May
June

141
142
143

x;

July
August
September

144"

•

145
144
:

October
November
December
1966
January
February
March

146 ••
147
•149

,,.
:

April
May
June

-.

July
August
September

151
152
154
154
155V1
156 :

:

"

::

157
158
159;

it.

153
155
156 156
156 :
156

.,-•
:

.;.

159

160

159
159

r!59

158
156
156

p!59
(NA)

159

.

(1957-59=100)

(1957-59=100)

166
169
166

239
239
244

148
148

:1:54
154
155

140
139
142

169
175
176

241
238
244

130
129
128

148
148
149

..151
153
155

144
144
144

178
176
178

243
240
247

130
130
131

150
150
151

156
154
154

147
147
150

179
184
183

241
244
246

156
155

146
149
151

r!86
186
189

252
251
255

:

,

: 146

,:,

"

151
151
153

:160

1 2 9

153
153
154

160
157
'•161

150
150
152

189
196
196

259
262
268

132
132
129

154
153
153

158
151
155

154
154
154

196
199
201

274
277
283

155

153
156
156

•200

r201
r201

284
290
296

131
130

131

••

(1957-59=100)

137
139
139

.

146
146
144

; " 133 •
„:

126. France,
127, Italy, index 128. Japan, inindex of indus- of industrial pro- dex of industrial
trial production duction
production

156
155
149

128

154
156;V;
157

158"

October
November
December
1967
January
February
March
April
May
June

139

140
141

125, West Germany, index of
industrial production

130

0

128 ,)
127 :
128 ;

129
P128
(NA)

p!56

;
:

•

rl52
152
153

152
p!52
(NA)

•153

151

149
148
p!48
(NA)

-

156
r!54
(NA)

203
p206

(NA)

r303
298
p306
(NA)

July
August
September
October
November
December
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain no seasonal movement, Unadjusted series are indicated by ® . Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order, Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. The V indicates revised; V. preliminary; "e", estimated;
"a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
1
Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development.




41




Section TWO

ANALYTICAL
MEASURES

charts and tables

DISTRIBUTION OF 'HIGHS' FOR CURRENT AND COMPARATIVE

PERIODS

DIFFUSION INDEXES BASED ON HUNDREDS OF COMPONENTS
Average workweek—21 industries
New orders—36 industries
Capital appropriations—17 industries
Profits—700 companies
Stock prices—77 industries
Industrial materials prices—13 materials
State unemployment claims—47 areas
Nonagricultural employment—30 industries
Production—24 industries
Wholesale prices— 22 industries
Retail sales—23 types of stores
Net sa/es—800 companies
New orders—400 companies
- Cdr/oad/ngs—19 commodity groups
Plant and equipment expenditures—18 industries
DIRECTIONS OF CHANGE FOR COMPONENTS OF DIFFUSION INDEXES




Table 3

ANALYTICAL MEASURES

bed

MAY 1967

DISTRIBUTION OF "HIGHS" FOR CURRENT AND COMPARATIVE PERIODS

Number of series that reached a high before benchmark datesNumber of months before benchmark date
that high was reached

Current expansion
Jan.
1967

Business cycle peak

Mar.
1967

Feb.
1967

Nov.
1948

Apr.
1967

July
1953

May
1960

July
1957

NBER LEADING INDICATORS
8 months or more c
7 months
6 months
5 months
4 months
3 months
2 months
1 month
Benchmark month

19
1
3

20
3

19

14

1

1

1

30
0

24
1
1
1
2

1

2
*2

Number of series used
Percent of series high on benchmark date

28

5
I
2
1
2

4

1

«v » *

„

4
2

4
2

4
2

14
4
1

20

30
0

1
21
0

29
7

24
0

26
4

29
0

29
0

NBER ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
8 months or more
7 months
6 months
5 months
4 months
3 months
2 months
1 month
Benchmark month
Number of series used
Percent of series high on benchmark date
Number of months before benchmark date
that high was reached

1

1

1
4
3
1
3
8

*1
4
3
1
3
2
6

21
38

21
29

1
1
3
3
1
3
2
3
4
21
19

20
15

Apr.
1957

Apr.
1953

4
2

1
4
1

3
4

7
3

4
4

4
3

18
17

21
19

21

3
3
2
3
2
18
11

3
1
1
1
5
3

14

6th month before business cycle peak

3d month before business cycle peak
Aug.
1948

2

5

2
3
3
1
2
2
3
1
3

Jan.
1953

May
1948

Feb.
1960

Nov.
1959

Jan.
1957

NBER LEADING INDICATORS
8 months or more
7 months
6 months
5 months

17
1
4

3 months
2 months
1 month

"i
4
i

Number of series used
Percent of series high on benchmark date

24
4

7
5
*3
1
5
1
2
2
26
8

25
1
2

1

18
4
I
1
1
1
1
2

ll
2

29
0

24
12

3
2
1
1
5
1
4
2
7

1
5
1
1
3

29
0

26
27

22
1
2

"i
2

*i
29
3

8
7
2
4
4
1
1
1
1
29
3

NBER ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS

8 months or more
6 months
5 months
4 months
2 months
1 month
Benchmark month
Number of series used
Percent of series high on benchmark date

2
1
1
2

4
B
18
44

3
*1
2
1
6
8
18
44

1
1
5
5
4
2
21
10

2
1
1
1
1
1
1
5
8
21
38

2

"l
1
2
3
3
6
18
33

1

**i

4

2
4
10

2
1
10
4

18
56

21
19

2
6
3
1
3
2
4
21
19

NOTE: AH quarterly series are omitted from the distribution. The number of series included varies because some series are not available for all cycles and because
those series which reached a peak during the Korean War are omitted from the 1953 distribution.

44



CHART2A

bed

ANALYTICAL MEASURES

MAY 1967

DIFFUSION INDEXES FROM 1948 to PRESENT
NBER Leading Indexes

(Aug.]

(Nov.] [Oct.)

P

T

P

(May) (Feb.)
P T

(July) (Apr.)

P

T

T

Percent
9 - m o . span —

. Avg. workweek, prod, wkrs., mfg,-21 indus.

100

50

06. New orders, dur. goods indus.-36 indus.

—i t O O -

011. Newly approved capital appropriations-17 indus., NICB (3-Q span— i-O span**-

034. Profits, FNCB of NY, percent reporting higher profrts-700 companies (1-Q span)

019. Stock prices, 500 common stocks- 77 indus.

023. Industrial materials prices-13 indus. mtls.

05. Initial claims, State unempl. insur.-47 areas (inverted)

1948

49

5®

SI

52

53

§4

5S

See 'Hew to Read Ctets 1 art 2,' page 4. Current dita for thess




56

57

9@

are shown m

59

@®

48 and 49.

45

CHART 2B

ANALYTICAL MEASURES

MAY 1967

bed

DIFFUSION INDEXES FROM 1948 to PRESENT-Continued
NBER Roughly Coincident Indexes
(July) (Apr.)
P T

t

(May) (Feb.
P T

Percent

D47. Industrial production-24 indus.

058. Wholesale prices, mfrd. goads-22 Nidus. |6-tno. span— 1-mo. span-

054. Sates of retail stores-23 types of stores (f*t.

SS
'Msw 1

46



5©

57

§8

39

series m sli@wn m pageiO,

6©

1-mo. span——]

61

62

63

85

©6

67

1908

bed

CHART 2C

ANALYTICAL MEASURES

MAY 1967

DIFFUSION INDEXES FROM 1948 to PRESENT-Continued
Actual and Anticipated Indexes
(July) (Aug.)
P
T

(Nov.) (Oct.]
P I

(July! (Apr.)
P T

(May) (Feb.)
P T

Percent

Actual
Anticipated

Htf ^es, jjUBteifflH gOTPfflfeS 14-0

100 -I

036. New orders, dur. goods mfrs.-400 companies

048. Cartoadiigs-19 mfrti. commodity groups (4-Qj^panj

in total carloadings
(millions of cars-4-Q spanl

D61. New plant and equipment expend. -17-22 Indus. (1-Q span)

Data are centered within spans. Latest data are as follows:

4©

5©

SI

52

S3

Series number and
date of survey

Actual

035, 036 (Mar; 1967)
D48 (Mar. 1967)
D61 (Feb. 1967)

i 1st Q WstQ 1967
2d Q 1965-2d Q 1966
•3d Q 1966-4th Q 1966

m

S5

i@a$ Charts 1 and 2,' paga4. Current data far ttese




57

5§

Anticipated

59

'2d Q 1966|2d Q 1967
2d Q 1966-2d Q 1967
1st Q 1967-2d Q 1967

6©

61

m pags 51'.

47

Table 4A

ANALYTICAL MEASURES

MAY 1967

bed

LATEST DATA FOR DIFFUSION INDEXES
NBER Leading Indexes

Year
and
month

Dl. Average workweek, manufacturing
(21 industries)
1-month span

9-month span

06. Value of manufacturers1 new orders,
durable goods industries (36 industries)

1-month span

9-month span

OIL Newly approved capital appropriations,
NICB (17 industries)
1-quarter span

3-quarter span

1965
January
February
March

61.9

83.3

77.8
75.0
77.8

65

81.0
78.6

48.6
38.9
63.9

76

57.1
76.2

April
May
June

19.0
81.0
28.6

61.9
47.6
54.8

50.0
44.4
58.3

68.1
66.7
68.1

71

76

July
August
September

52.4
59.5
40.5

71.4
64.3
81.0

59.7
41.7
61.1

91.7
83.3
80.6

53

82

October
November
December
1966
January
February
March

71.4
81.0
54.8

95.2
92.9
83.3

61.1
55.6
76.4

81.9
86.1
83.3

59

71

57.1
69.0
40.5

83.3
76.2
31.0

30.6
50.0
84.7

75.0
75.0
66.7

65

76

April
May
June

50.0
50.0
33.3

35.7
45.2
35.7

41.7
50.0
51.4

72.2
58.3
59.7

53

53

July
August
September

21.4
61.9
64.3

38.1
9.5
19.0

50.0
59.7
37.5

55.6
44.4
41.7

32

41

October
November
December
1967
January
February
March

45.2
40.5
19.0

r9.5
r!9.0
pl6.7

50.0
44.4
55.6

r36.1
r29.2
P33.3

r41

P35

April
May . . .
June.

69.0
7.1
r76.2

31.9
38.9
r55.6

P47.6

p47.2

Ptf

July
August
September
October
November
December
NOTE: Figures are the percent of series components rising and are centered within spans; 1-month indexes are placed on latest month and 9-month indexes are placed
on the 6th month of span; 1-quarter indexes are placed on the 1st month of the 2d quarter and 3-quarter indexes are placed on nthe 1st month of the 3d quarter. Seasonally adjusted components are used. Table 5 identifies the components for most of the indexes shown. The V indicates revised; "p , preliminary; and "NA", not available.

48



Table 4A

bed

ANALYTICAL MEASURES

MAY 1967

LATEST DATA FOR DIFFUSION INDEXES—Continued
NBER Leading indexes-Continued

D34. Profits, manufacturing, FNCB
019. Index of stock prices, 500 common D23. Index of industrial materials prices
(around 700 corpora(13 industrial materials;
stocks (77 industries)®
tions)

Year
and
month

1-quarter span

1965
January
February
March
April
May
June

1-month span

•=•".

64.3

56

70.8
66.9

*

July
August
September

.'..

:

57
•:•

October
November
December

:

8lv:8

;. .

53.8

o.b

:

24.7
79.9

•

81»;;2

.r.

;

1 -month span

9-month span

24.5

69.2

57.4
66.0

78.7
78.7
59.6

58.4
72.7
67.5

76. ^
53.8
57.7

69.2
53.8
53.8

61.7
59*6
51.1

66.0
61.7
78.7

61.0
59.1

46.2
42.3
,-50.0

46.2
46.2
46.2

34*0
38.3
78.7

80.9
87,2
70.2

60.4
67.5
70.1

15.4
34.6
61.5

46.2
38.5
53.8

57.4
44.7
51.1

62.8
•91.5
95.7

58.4.
51.9

^

9-month span

69.2
76.9
61.5

80.5

92.2

57

1-month span

9-month span

D5. Initial claims for unemployment insurance, State programs,
week including the 12th (47 areas)

*:

,

30.8

63.6

60

66.9
70.1
57.1

•' - •••• 59-

74,0
48.7
•„ 14.3

51.9
43.5
37.7

61.5
76.9
46.2

53.8
61.5
61.5

38.3 •
44.7
83.0

91.5
74,5
44.7

22.1

:

1966
January
February
March.

..
.;,

April
May
June

59,

63.6
3.9
23.4

11.7
6.5

30.8
42.3
46.2

53.8
30.8
15.4

53.2
45.7
57.4

68.1
76.6
78.7

July
August
September

50

38.3
6.5
3.9

9.7
22.1
20.1

61.5
26.9
0.0

7.7
7.7
7.7

17.0
73.3
80.9

80.9
34.0
34.0

October
November
December

54

47.4
58.4
66.2

19.2
30.8
57.7

0.0
0.0
0,0

36.2
46.8
27.7

23.4
17.0
54.3

o.o

55.3
17.0
46.8

:

25^3
88.3
59; 7

;

•

:

1967
January
February
March

48

April
May . .
June
July
August
September

. .

October
November
December

.....

90.9
92.2
61.0

46.2
53.8
23.1

76.0

23.1
U6.2

x

59.6

NOTE: Figures are the percent of series components rising and are centered within spans: 1-month indexes are placed on latest month and J-rnqnth. indexes are placed
on the 6th month of span; 1-quarter indexes are placed on the 1st month of the 2nd quarter. Seasonally adjusted components are used except in index D19 which requires no"
adjustment and index D34 which is adjusted only for the index. Table 5 identifies the components for most of the indexes shown. The V indicates revised; V, preliminary;
and "NA", not available, Unadjusted series are indicated by © .
1
Average for May 17, 18, and 19.




49

Table 4B

ANALYTICAL MEASURES

MAY 1967

bed

LATEST DATA FOR DIFFUSION INDEXES—Continued
NBER Roughly Coincident Indexes

D41. Number of employees in
nonagrtcultural establishments
(30 industries)

Year
and
month

047. Index of industrial production
(24 industries)

058. Index of wholesale prices
(22 manufacturing industries)®

D54. Sales of retail stores
(23 types of stores)

1-month span

6-month span

1-month span

6-month span

1-month span

6-month span

1-month span

73.3
70.0
86.7

81.7
78.3
80.0

79.2
70.8
77.1

83.3
85.4
87.5

72.7
52.3
65,9

81.8
86.4
81.8

63.0
65.2
30.4

80.4
87.0
87.0

April. ...........
May
June

63.3
63.3
88.3

80.0
81.7
75.0

56.2
70.8
91.7

83.3
83.3
79.2

72.7
75.0
61.4

79.5
70.5
63.6

54.3
87.0
43.5

73.9
87.0
87.0

JU|y

88.3
70.0
71.7

88.3
91.7
93.3

81.2
75.0
54.2

87.5
91.7
87.5

50.0
56.8
61.4

65.9
65.9
77.3

80.4
47.8
73.9

95.7
91.3
95.7

October
November
December
1966
January
February
March

88.3
93.3
86.7

90.0
95.0
93.3

79.2
83.3
87.5

87.5
89.6
100.0

70.5
70.5
70.5

88.6
90.9
90.9

78.3
78.3
37.0

95.7
95.7
91.3

85.0
85.0
91.7

95.0
91.7
86.7

70.8
70.8
87.5

95.8
91.7
87.5

79.5
75.0
72.7

88.6
95.5
93.2

76.1
65.2
60.9

82.6
84.8
78.3

April
May
June

73.3
76.7
91.7

85.0
81.7
73.3

64.6
58.3
87.5

70.8
75.0
62.5

70.5
86.4
75.0

95.5
95.5
86.4

43.5
30.4
95.7

78.3
82.6
78.3

July
August
September

48.3
73.3
23.3

75.0
75.0
71.7

45.8
60.4
39.6

64.6
58.3
52.1

72.7
54.5
47.7

72.7
72.7
63.6

47.8
47.8
60.9

76.1
65.2
82.6

October
November
December
1967
January
February
March

75.0
88.3
63.3

83.3
r70.0
r68.3

60.4
50.0
58.3

r62.5
r50,0
r43.8

63.6
63.6
54.5

63.6
72,7
72.7

43.5
69.6
41.3

r87.0
82.6
p65.2

73.3
36.7
r45.0

P56.7

r33.3
r25.0
r45.8

p37*5

77.3
72.7
56.8

63.6

87.0
r39.1
r52.2

1965
January
February
March

». .

August
September

April
May

pa. 7

pa. 7

47.7

9-month span

P54.3

June
July

August
September
October
November
December
NOTE: Figures are the percent of series components rising and are centered within spans: 1-month indexes are placed on latest month, ,6-month indexes are placed on the
4th month, and 9-month indexes are placed on the 6th month of span. Seasonally
adjusted components are used except in index 058 which requires no adjustment. Table 5
identifies the components for the indexes shown. The Y indicates revised; wp", preliminary;'and "NA", not available. Unadjusted series are indicated by ®.

50



Table 4C

bed

MAY

ANALYTICAL MEASURES

1967

LATEST DATA FOR DIFFUSION INDEXES—Continued

and Anticipated Indexes

Year
and
month

D35. Net sales, manufactures
{800 companies) ®

D36. New orders, durable manufactures (400 companies) ®

D48. Freight carloadings {19 manufactured
commodity groups) ®

D61. New plant and equipment
expenditures (18 industries)

4-quarter span

4-quarter span

4-ouarter span

1-quarter span

Anticipated

Actual

1965
January.. .
February
March

'90

,*8$

=. "as

*88

July
August
September

*88

'90

October
November
December

*89

91

January
February
March

*87

April .
May
June

*si

April
May
June

Anticipated

Actual

Actual

Anticipated

Change in
total (000)

*90

*84

63^

84.2

+25

'-88;

"&i

63.2

.84,2

4-20

*89

'87

7-3.7

73 1.7

+28

Csa

"96

73.7

89 ! 5

.+18

*91

*85

*89

(NA)

si! 2

+20

"$$

*82

*83

78!9

'+1

*84

*68

*82

78!9

-50

*80

.52.6,.

:

=• ^

Actual

Anticipated

56.2

65.6

75.0

68.8

83.3

65.6

75.0

84.4

83.3

62.5

83.3

71.9

55.6

37.5

75.0

65.6

(NA)

50.0

1966

July
August ...
September . .

:

"72

...

October
November
December

"al

1967
January

February
March
52.8

April
May
June
July
August

September
October
November
December

-.

NOTE: Figures are the percent of
placed in the 1st month of the 2d quarter.
Unadjusted series are indicated by ®




ies components rising and are centered within spans: 4-quarter indexes are centered in the middle quarter; 1-ouarter indexes are
sasonally adjusted components are used for series D61. The "r" indicates revised; -"p", preliminary; an(T"NA'f, not available.

51

Table 5A

ANALYTICAL MEASURES

bed

MAY 1967

SELECTED DIFFUSION INDEXES AND COMPONENTS
Basic Data

1966

1967

1966

Diffusion index title and components

Mar.

Apr,

May

June

July

Dec.

Jan.

Feb.r

Mar.

Apr. P

Average weekly hours
Dl. AVERAGE WORKWEEK OF PRODUCTION
WORKERS, MANUFACTURING1
(21 industry components)
Ad manufacturing industries
Durable goods industries:
Ordnance and accessories
Lumber and wood products
Furniture and fixtures
Stone, clay, and glass products
Primary metal industries
Fabricated metal products
Machinery, except electrical
;
Electrical machinery
Transportation equipment
Instruments and related products
Miscellaneous manufacturing industries
Nondurable goods industries:
Food and kindred products
Tobacco manufactures
Textile mill products
Apparel and related products
Paper and allied products
Printing and publishing
Chemicals and allied products
Petroleum and related products
Rubber and plastic products
Leather and leather products

41.5

41.5

41.5

41.3

41.0

40.9

41.0

40.3

40.4

40.5

42.0

42.2

42.7

40.6
41.0
41.5
41.6
42.1

42.1
40.2
40.5
42.4
41.5
42.2

42.1
40.3
40.8
42.1
41.8
42.3
43.6
40.8
41.7
41.7
40.0

41.5
40.3
40.1
41.5
40.8

r41.7
r40.8
r40,2
r41.7
r40.7
r41.5

42.9
39.9
40.7
40.9
38.7

41.6
40.7
39.9
41.1
40.0
41.1
42.5
39.7
41.5
41.2
39.5

41.2
38.6
41.0
36.7
43.2

41.0
37.5
40.1
35.6
42.7

38.9
41.8
41.8
41.4
38.4

38.5
41.4
42.8
40.7
37.1

r38.5

a. 9

42.1
41.8

42.4
41.4
42.0
41.8
42.2

42.4

42.4

42.4

42.1
40.5
41.8
41.9
42.0
42.3

43.7
41.4
43.4
42.0
40.0

43.8
41.3
42.2
42.4
40.3

43.8
41.2
42.3
42.0
40.1

43.3
40.9
42.1
41.7
39.7

43.6
40.6
41.5
41.8
39.7

41.1
41.9
36.4
43.7

40.9
38.5
42.2
36.5
43.7

41.0
38.0
42.2
36.5
43.4

38.9
42.3
42.6
42.4
39.0

38.7
41.9
' 42.5
42.1
39.0

39.0
42.0
42.5
41.7
38.7

41.3
37.9
41.7
36.2
43.4
39.0
42.0
42.4
41.5
38.3

41.0
39.2
40.8
36.5
43.0
38.6
42.0
42.4
41.4
38.0

41.1
41. 9
42.8

u.o
41.3
42.9
42.4
40.3
41.1
39.4
42.4
36.5
43.5
38.7
42.0
42.6
42.2
38.5

41.3
u.6

' 39.2

41.4

r42.9
40.1

r40.7
41.4

r39.3
r41.1
38.5
40.3

r35.5
r42.7
41.7

r43.2
r41.0
r37.0

41.0
39.1
40.6
36.2
42.9
38.8
41.8
43.1
41.3
37.4

Millions of dollars
D6. VALUE OF MANUFACTURERS' NEW
ORDERS, DURABLE GOODS INDUSTRIES1
(36 industry components)
All durable goods industries
Primary metals
Blast furnaces, steel mills . . . .
Nonferrous metals ,
Iron and steel foundries
Other primary metals
Fabricated metal products
Metal cans, barrels, and drums
Hardware, structural metal and wire products . .
Other fabricated metal products
Machinery, except electrical
Steam engines and turbines*;
}
Internal combustion engines *
Farm machinery and equipment
Construction, mining, and material handling*. .
Metalworking machinery *
Miscellaneous equipment *
Machine shops
Special industry machinery1*.
General industrial machinery*
Office and store machines*
Service industry machinery *. .

24,888

24,197

24,276

24,593

r22,125

22,240

4,305
2,331

4,109
2,173

23,960
3,677
1,737

22,329

3,905
2,037

24,371
4,106
2,277

22,072

4,057
2,104

3,315
1,495

3,427
1,805

r3,023
Pl,439

3,269
(NA)

2,411

2,206

2,237

2,163

2,231

"2,403

2,049

p2,224

p2,234

(NA)

3,529

3,538

3,553

3,609

3,391

3,266

P3,389

335

254

329

3,426
266

3,582

230

343

214

296

P311

(NA)

689
301

610
309

705
263

617
297

646
244

580
250

568
144

546
210

P604

p219

(NA)
(NA)

254

303

251

251

252

263

329

252

p267

(NA)

NOTE: Data are not shown when held confidential by the source agency.
p = Preliminary.
r = Revised,
x
Data are seasonally adjusted by source agency.


52


*Denotes machinery and equipment industries that comprise series 24.

(NA)

NA=Not available.

Table 5B

bed

ANALYTICAL MEASURES

MAY 1967

SELECTED DIFFUSION INDEXES AND COMPONENTS-Continued
Direction of Change

9-month spans

1-month spans

1966

1967

1966

1967

Diffusion index title and components
>*
"?
£
=
^

Dl. AVERAGE WORKWEEK OF PRODUCTION
WORKERS, MANUFACTURING
(21 industry components)
Percent rising
All manufacturing industries
Durable goods industries:
Ordnance and accessories
Lumber and wood products

"Si

>

•*-•

o

i_

<-i

^_

> ^ o p - S . ^

? < ^ C ?
2 = ° -^
£
3 E <
> , o o - S - ^ > 6 A j = j * i ^ = j g - o o < D ^
o j r o
- = < < ? >
O
Z
0
.-^
U _ E

^

<

u

o

<?
o

0
i

c

>

o

==

S

o

^

^

=

- g c S S u

«.

^

S

^

r

-

o

5

§ " =

i

21

62

64

45

-

4

4

-

4

-

-

4

:

4

69

-

0

0

" -

4-

-

'"•'-

4

40. 19
O

O

•;4

Fnrnitnrp anH fivtnrpc

Stone clay and glass products
Primary metal industries
Fabricated metal products
Machinery except electrical
Electrical machinery
Transportation equipment
Instruments and related products
Miscellaneous manufacturing industries
Nondurable goods industries:
Food and kindred products
Tobacco manufactures
Textile mill products
Apparel and related products
Paper and allied products
Printing and publishing
Chemicals and allied products
Petroleum and related products. ••

bo
<

4

:

7
-

4

-

4-"

45

4- ,

-

4

„

-

04

4

-

-

0

4-

-

t

4

-

4

-

O

~

O

4

-

'.,;•;».

::^.*

...:• 4

4

4

-

0

-

-

4

-

_

-

-

4

-

+

4-

+

. -•

-

+

.,+

o
0

<

-

+

0

.,

-

O

Leather and leather products

4

-

:;

4
-

+

-

-

+

0.

4-:-.

-

-

-

4

-

4

-

0

0

4

O

-

+

-

O

0
-

••-••• 4+

Q
+

-

-*:

*

:4

0
_

-0
-

^

.+

•-+

_

4

. -

•:•'

-

^

4

19

10

19

17 ;

4

4

-

-

-

- ;

..

.4-

-

-

4

O

-

-

-

-

0

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

o

-

.-

o•

-

+

-

-:

4

4'

4

-

O

4

4

'

-

+

-

-

4 4 -

_ ,

-'

O

O

4-

-

-

0

4
4

4

'.

:-4
-

+

-

-

+

4

---

4

-

'••

•- 4-

••-

.-4-

-

-

4'

4 0
,;:.

10

.,.-

,
.-

-

4

_ •

0

38

-

-

4

^4

36

+

4

:

36

-

4

-

31

48

4

O

- " • 4

'

76

4

+ - - • •

-

Q:

*

4-

-4

4-

0

_

4-

-

-

+

44

56

32

39

56

47

_

4-

_

+

-

4-

4

4

-

0

4 :•
_

O_

-

0

-

+

4

-

67

72

58

60

56

44

42

-

4

4

4

+

+

4

4

4-

4-

4-

-

4

0

O

-

-

4

-

-

-

4

-

»

-

4

-

-

D6. VALUE OF MANUFACTURERS' NEW
ORDERS, DURABLE GOODS INDUSTRIES
(36 industry components)
50

60 ^ 3 8 - 50

AH durable goods industries
Primary metals:
•' ; '-

:f

'+

"

-

Fabricated metal products:

•••••-

". +

+

-

"V

'- -

+

_

4- ' :;

-' -

_

•;•
:

;

-

4-

-

+

-

+

--

_-•-

+;

4--

4-

"*

-'+

:+

-

4-

-

4

-

4-

4

: :

" "' - "

+"

+

-

-

+

29

33

4

•-'•-

':-

"4

36

- :

'.4

--.-

;

" -

Machinery, except electrical:
4-

Internal combustion engines *

'

;:

-

-

4

4

- ':'"

-:

4

-

-

-

4 ' +

-

4

-

-

-

4

4

-

'' + "

Construction mining and material handling *

+

Miscellaneous equipment *

-

4

-

4

-

4-

4

-

4

+

4
4

Office and store machines*.
Service industry machinery *

-

0

4

-

4
4

-

„

4

-

-

-

-

-

4-

-

4

-

4

4

4

4

+

_

-

-

4

-

_

-

'

+

'4

.4

4

4

-

-

4

-

4

4

4

...»

-

-

4

-

+

,.. 4

4

-

+ = rising; o = unchanged;- = falling. Directions of change are computed even though data are held confidential,
comprise series 24.




4

4

4

-

4:.

4 0 4

;

"'•+

4
+

'

—

4

-

~

4

-

4

4

-

4
4

4
—

4
.
4

4

4
4

-

4
4

4

4
-

4

-

4

4

4

4

-

-

^Denotes machinery and equipment industries that

53

Table 5A

ANALYTICAL MEASURES

bed

MAY 1967

SELECTED DIFFUSION INDEXES AND COMPONENTS-Continued
Basic Data—Continued

1966

1966

1967

Diffusion index title and components
Mar.

Apr.

May

June

Dec.

July

Jan.

Feb.

3,552

3,362

P3,257

(NA)
(NA)

(NA)

Mar.

Apr.

May 1

Millions of dollars
06. VALUE OF MANUFACTURERS' NEW ORDERS,
DURABLE GOODS INDUSTRIES 2- Continued
Electrical machinery
3,489 3,612
Electrical transmission, distr. equipment* ....
I 705731
Electrical industrial apparatus*
Household appliances
Radio and TV
888
725
Communication equipment t.
Electronic components
*
Other electrical machinery**
6,561
Transportation equipment
6,873
Motor vehicle parts
Motor vehicle assembly operations
Complete aircraft t

3,466

3,487

3,744

3,358

844

783

789

750

833

r724

P680

672

742

890

675

703

r793

P779

6,488

6,902

6,639

6,540

5,577

r5,799

r5,947

p6,099

106.8

105.2

102.5

100.1

99.0

.500
.062
26.316
1.547

.459
.064
27.603
1.580

.398
.343
.062
.063
29.301 26.812
1.610
1.569

.368
.064
28.213
1.528

Shipbuilding and railroad equipment*
Instruments, total
Lumber, total
Furniture total
Stone clay, and glass, total
Other durable goods, total
D23. INDEX OF INDUSTRIAL
MATERIALS PRICES3
(13 industrial materials components)
Industrial materials price index

Index: 1957-59 = 100

123.5

121.5

.632
.078
36.019
1.808

.620
.082
31.479
1.770

.586
.075
30.384
1.678

.150
.170
.292
.205
1.762

.151
.169
.291
.215
1.787

.151
.163
.291
,217
1.811

118.3

118.4

118.8

105.8

Dollars
Copper scrap (Ib.)
Lead scrap (Ib.)
Steel scrap (ton)
Tin(lb.)
.
Zinc(lb.)
,
Burlap (yd.)
Cotton (Ib.), 15-market average
Print cloth (yd.), average
Wool tops (Ib )
Hides (Ib )
Rosin (100 Ib )
Rubber (Ib )
Tallow (Ib )
D54. SALES OF RETAIL STORES2
(23 retail store components)
AH retail sales
Other food stores
Eating and drinking places
...
Department stores
Mail order houses (department store merchandise).
Variety stores
Other general merchandise stores .
Men's and boys' wear stores

.237
11.420
.257
.073

.212
.207
11.341 11.103
.235
.239
.071:

.072

.629
.075
31.556
1.611

.623
.075
34.264
1.619

.469
.063
28.882
1.528

.148
.152
.151
.162
.161
.143
.292
.221
.291
.218
.208
.209
1.824
1.633
1.794
.227
.180
.236
11.100 11.022 10.905
.239
.223
.234
.061
.072
.073

.150
.149
.150
.147
.221
.220
.201
.202
1.628
1.624
.202
.211
10.938 10.828
.209
.219
.061
.056

.151
.150
.218
.197
1.601
.177
10.732
.204
.050

.150
.146
.218
.192
1.605

.142
.138
.217
.193
1.663
.156
.159
10.669 10.753
.201
.199
.050
.051

Millions of dollars
25,536

24,949

24,475

25,368

5,467

5,431

25,394
5,472

25,362

5,391

5,436

'5,376

1,935
2,119
220
459

1,924
2,099
224
453

1,910
2,113
216
467

1,967
2,214
219
487

1,996
2,201
234
481

2,019
2,162
216
475

277

279

283

295

301

282

25,687 r25,470 r25,771 t>25,667
5,417

r5,452

P5,519

(NA)

2,036 r2,026 p2,037
2,244 r2,191 p2,217
220
230
p223
P452
486
r472

(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)

p317

(NA)

317

r304

NOTE: Data are not shown when held confidential by the source agency.
* Denotes machinery and equipment industries that comprise series 24. "These industries
plus ordnance comprise series 99.
NA = Not available, p = Preliminary, r - Revised.
Average for May 17, 18, and 19.
2
Data are seasonally adjusted by the source agency.
3
Series components are seasonally adjusted by the Bureau of the Census. Industrial materials price index is not seasonally
adjusted.

54



bed

Table SB

ANALYTICAL MEASURES

MAY 1967

SELECTED DIFFUSION INDEXES AND COMPONENTS-Continued

Direetion of Change—Continued

1-month spans
1966

Diffusion index title and components

>^

9-month spans
1966

1967

1967

H

„* *-

i j - f t o l s - i s i ^ i f 11 § 1 1 1 ? i f 1
""""

™*

"f"J

•*•"*

5*

O

r—

*"*

i_

«^.

O
0

^ ^ 3 £ 8 £ £ ^ £ £ 3
D6. VALUE OF MANUFACTURERS' NEW ORDERS,
DURABLE GOODS INDUSTRIES -Continued
Electrical machinery:
Electrical transmission, distr. equipment *
Electrical industrial apparatus*
Household appliances
Radio and TV
Communication equipment;!.
Electronic components ........ ....
Other electrical machinery*
Transportation equipment:
Motor vehicle parts
Motor vehicle assembly operations
Complete aircraftt
Aircraft parts f
Shipbuilding and railroad equipment*
Other transportation equipment . . . . .
Instruments, total
Lumber, total
Furniture, total
Stone, clay, and glass, total
;
Other durable goods, total
D23. INDEX OF INDUSTRIAL
MATERIALS PRICES2
(13 industrial materials components)
Percent rising
Industrial materials price index

4

4

-

4 " -

4

4
-4

_

^

_

+

_

„

+

_

+

_,

+

4

-

4

-

-

-

+

+

.

_

+

_

4

-

4

4

-

-

4

4

4

-

0

0

4

4

4

-

4

^

-

-

+

+

'_

+

-

4

4

-

_

+

-

+

_

4

4

-

-

_

4

-

4

4

4

-

4

-

-

-

-

4

4

-

+
.

-

-

4
_

4

O
^

O>
o

-

m
^

4

+

4 ; 4

4

4

4

4>

4

4

4

4

4

+

+

-

-

-

4

-

-

-

4

_

_

+

4

4

4
4

-

+
_

4

.

+

.4

_

_

,

_

-

_

4

-

-

4

+

-

-

4

4

-

4

4

4

_

+

*

. . +

-

-

4

4

-

4

4

4

4

-

-

4

4

4

4

4

-

-

_

_

4

-

4

-

4

+

^

+

_

_

+

-

_

-

4

-

4

4

4

-

4
+

_
_

_
_

4 4
+

+

_

4 4
+
_

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

-

4

4

-

4

4.

-

+

_

+

_

+

+

-

-

+

+

62

27

0

19

31

58

23

23

46

-

-

i

+

„

'

-

4

Wool tops {Ib )

4,.

,

Hides (Ib )

-

_

_

46

_

54
4

-

_

_
4

4

_

. „

-

+

_

—,
^
- ^ <

4

+

»

4

=5
^

4

+

+

TO
S -

Q<

<1>
<TO
u _ s

_

-

_

_

-

-

4

-

4

4

-

+
-

4

4

4

4

4

-

4

-

4

4

-

_

-

_

_

-

_

-

+

+

+

4

4

-

+

+

-

_

-

+

54 31 15

8

8

8

0

0

0

0

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

.-

-

-

62

_

4

-

Copper scrap (Ib )
I'pftH Qrrsn (\h \

Steel scrap (ton)

_

„

_

-

-

+

+

-

+

+

_

-.

-

-

. "

4

+

+

+

-

-

Tin flh ^

Zinc (Ib )

-

0

-

-

4

4

4

-

-

Pur Ion fuH ^
+

Print cloth (yd ) average

_
-

_

_

«

-

_

CT
-

^

-

4

_
4

-

+

_

_

4

_

+

+

444

-

4-

-

+

+

+

+

+ .•

-

-

-

-

4

4

-

-

-

+

+

4

-

D/\cin Mflfl Ih \
KOSin UUU IDJ

Rubber (Ib )

•

+

0

-

-

-

4

-

-

4

-

-

_,

. -

-

^

•.«.

-

4

-

•• *

X-ll/Mu /IK ^

D54. SALES OF RETAIL STORES
(23retail store components)
Percent rising
w . .
All retail sales
Grocery stores
•
•
Other food stores
*
Eating and drinking places
Department stores
'Mail order houses (department store merchandise) • .
Other general merchandise stores
Men's and boys' wear stores

52

54

78

78

4

-

,4

.+ . . + ,

83

78

76

65

83

87

83

65

4

4

'-

4

4

4

4

-

4

4

4

48

48

61

44

70

41

87

39

-

4

4

-

4

-

4

-

_

_

+

+

-

-

4

4

4

-

-

4

4

-

-

4

4

-

4

-

+

-

0

-

4

4

4

-

4

-

4

4

4

4

+

+

+

-

4

^

+

4

4

4

4

4

-

4

4

4

-

4

+

-

4

_

_

-

+

-

+

-

+

-

+

+

_

+

+

_

+

_

+

+

-

-

+

-

'

4

-

4

4

-

4 4 4

- '

-

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

-

4

4

4

4

4

4

:4

4

4

4

_

-

4

4

4

4

4

4

+

4 4 4

4

4

4

4

-i- = rising; o = unchanged;- = falling.. Directk)ns of change are computed even though data are held confide ntial.
comprise series 24, tThese industries plus ordnance comprise series 99.

+

^

':

-

4

4

4

4

4

4

,
4

|

^Denotes machinery and equipment industries that

Average for May 17, 18, and 19.
Directions of change are computed before figures are rounded.




55

Table 5A

ANALYTICAL MEASURES

bed

MAY 1967

SELECTED DIFFUSION INDEXES AND COMPONENTS-Continued
Basic Data—Continued

1966

1966

1967

Diffusion index title and components
Mar.

Apr.

July

June

May

Dec.

Jan.

Feb/

Mar,P

Apr.

Millions of dollars
D54. SALES OF RETAIL STORES1- Continued
Women's apparel accessory stores
Family and other apparel stores
Shoe stores
Furniture home furnishings stores
Household appliance TV radio stores
Lumber yards building materials dealers
Hardware stores
Farm equipment dealers
Passenger car and other automotive dealers ....
Tire battery accessory dealers
Gasoline service stations
Drug and proprietary stores
Liquor stores
Jewelry stores.
Other durable-goods stores
Other nondurable-goods stores

569

579

578

583

584

536

587

576

563

(NA)

232
765
405
895
255

223
741
379
797
237

232
734
372
752
238

241
746
397
769
237

228
771
429
764
243

233
741
425
747
250

250
792
429
803
259

239
780
449
801
257

222
753
441
796
258

(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)

4,822
299
1,907
816
559

4,302
278
1,927
843
564

4,017
271
1,920
831
560

4,479
292
1,927
848
572

4,460
304
1,918
844
549

4,445
300
1,915
892
564

4,298
306
1,931
877
591

4,085
309
1,968
883
595

4,302
312
1,934
892
591

(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)

> ;;;
1966

June

July

' 1967

1966

Sept.

Aug.

Oct.

Dec.

Jan.

Feb.r

Mar.r

Apr.

p

Thousands of employees
D4L NUMBER OF EMPLOYEES IN
NONAGRICULTURAL ESTABLISHMENTS1
(30 industry components)
All nonagricultural establishments
Ordnance and accessories
Lumber and wood products
Furniture and fixtures ..... , . .
Stone, clay, and glass products
Primary metal industries
Fabricated metal products
Machinery
Electrical equipment
Transportation equipment
Instruments and related products
Miscellaneous manufacturing industries

Food and kindred products
Tobacco manufactures
,
Textile mill products
Apparel and related products . . ,
Paper and allied products
Printing and publishing
Chemicals and allied products
Petroleum and related products
Rubber and plastic products
Leather and leather products
Mining
Contract construction
Transportation and public utilities
Wholesale trade
Retai 1 trade

63,983
120
550
381
515
1,086
1,048
1,312
1,327
1,358
276
355

64,072
122
543
378
515
1,090
1,043
1,331
1,320
1,324
277
350

64,199
124
542
382
512
1,100
1,060
1,338
1,353
1,353
278
353

64,168
126
531
380
507
1,092
1,055
1,339
1,350
1,389
277
349

64,466
128
529
381
507
1,102
1,062
1,346
1,363
1,392
280
352

65,076

65,381
136
539
381
515
1,090
1,074
1,363
1,357
1,362
287
358

65,497
141
537
379
507
1,071
1,070
1,357
1,355
1,361
287
352

65,513
144
540
376
509
1,051
1,065
1,353
1,344
1,357
288
348

65,611

133
529
384
511
1,092
1,075
1,360
1,355
1,392
285
355

1,166
74
854
1,268
525
654
578
115
403
316

1,165
73
850
1,232
530
656
577
115
403
307

1,170
68
856
1,239
528
659
582
115
406
312

1,145
67
848
1,234
520
657
575
114
403
310

1,156
66
847
1,246
525
659
576
114
409
310

T-,184
74
848
1,251
530
666
582
115
417
308

1,183
77
847
1,257
531
673
584
115
417
307

1,184
72
838
1,242
533
673
583
114
412
302

1,190
72
835
1,221
534
677
580
114
408
298

1,175
74
830
1,224
532
676
577
114
409
303

632
3,300
4,143
3,470
9,747

636
3,297
4,122
3,483
9,773

636
3,251
4,105
3,483
9,781

628
3,228
4,168
3,474
9,794

625
3,202
4,165
3,486
9,854

626
3,293
4,196
3,515
9,877

628
3,301
4,230
3,530
9,973

626
3,350
4,225
3,535
9,989

626
626
3,320
3,279
4,221
4,191
3,552
3,553
9,925 10,112

NOTE: Data are not shown when held confidential by the source agency.
Data are seasonally adjusted by the source agency.

x

56



,NA=Not available.

p = Preliminary,

r = Revised.

145
528
370
497
1,037
1,053
1,344
1,325
1,338
287
351

Table 58

bed

ANALYTICAL MEASURES

MAY 1967

SELECTED DIFFUSION INDEXES AND COMPONENTS-Continued
Direction of Change-*-Continued

9-month spans

1966

Diffusion index title and components

^

oo

QJ

.L

it;
o

•?• 3

1 t

D54. SALES OF RETAIL STORES - Continued
Women's apparel, accessory stores
Family and other apparel stores
Shoe stores
Furniture home furnishings stores
Household appliance, TV, radio stores
Lumber yards, building materials dealers
Hardware stores
Farm equipment dealers
Passenger car and other automotive dealers
Tire battery, accessory dealers
Gasoline service stations
Drug and proprietary stores
Liquor stores
Jewelry stores
Other duiable-goods stores
Other nondurable-goods stores

00

5

8

1

£

_>,

*

=E

0

["?

6
0

g
2=

X
Q

2

i

=3

^

O

1 II

O

f I?

u"

I

"o
° I
(5
s
ic*

:-..,+
i:

"

+

-

+

+
4

4

0

+
4

4

+
4

+
4

4

4

-

4

-

+

+

+

+

+

4

+ :.;:;,,+

• +

+

4,

4

4

4

+
+

'-'

:

V

+

-

O

4

4
4

_

< +

4

4

4

-

+

+

\ _ +
.'.,.+

+
4

_

:f'#:

:

'+

4

4

., 4

4
4

4

4

4

4

4
+

4'

+

+

0

+

4

+

+

+

+

+

4

+

+

'-•

4

+

4

4

+

4

+

+

+

+
,.••: 4

+

+
4

4
4

4

-

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

+;:

4

:.

4

+

+

+

4

?ii*

ts

3

48
4
+

+
;:V- +
:".' _

+

4
+
+
+
+
4

+

4

73

37

4

4

+

4

4

4

+

-

+

4

+
4

-^

0

0

4

+

+

+•"

+

4

+

-h

4

+

-(-

:

+

4

0

+

0

.:;

4

4. '

-

4

+
+
+
+;
o'

+
+
0
+
-

+
+
0
p..;
*

0

+
O

+

4

+
0

4
+

.:.+,; . - . +
+
-

+
+

O
+
4

4
+
4

+

4
4

+

4

+

4

+

+

+

+

+

4

+
4

+

+
4

+

4

4

+

+

4

4

+

4

+

4

+
4

0
4

+
4

4
4

+

+

+!

+

4

4

4

4

Q.

<c

o
o>

i06
& c
=3

j|
_>»
n

S

75

83

4

75
+

72

4

4

4

70
+

4

4

4

4

' +

4

ts

3

73
V

TO

E

do

o

68 57
+ +
4

+

4

+

+ •

+

+
4

+
4

+
4

+
+
4

+
+
4

+

+

4

+

4
+

+

0
+

4

4

+

4

+
+

4

4

+
+

4

4

+
4

+

4

+

O

0

+

4
+

4

4
4

+
+

+
4

+
4

+
+1
4
0
Q

4

+

+

+

-

0

4

0
4

+

+

0

••••.—

~

4^

4

+

+

+

+

4

+

+

+

4

+

+

4

+

+

+

+

4

4
4

+
4

4
4

4

4

4

+

+

+

+

4

-

4

-

-

+

0

+

+
4

4
4

4
4

+
4

4

+

4
4
4

4

4
4

+
4

:;:

4

0

O

O

+:
0

: ;+

4

4
_

4-i

4

+
+

^fr 2
o

+ :;

+

0

4

4

o

+

+

4

+

+:r

O

82

+

+

+

85
+

4
+

+

+

4

0

4

0
4

+

4
•+
4

4

••+_.

4

1967

*

S=

LL.

4

4::

O

+
4

CO

—^

42

0

M

1 "
.i
<D
C3

4

+

0

4

45

"7*
c

+

4

+

4

+

4

+

4

Transportation and public utilities
Wholesale trade
Retail trade

63

4

+

+

^
=3

+
4

+

4
4

1966

I
H o5 iS i t
V>
o
o
a>
O
2 0
* £ i
88

23 75
4
. o
+ 4
+

73
+

0

4
4

Mining

jib
=3

6-month spans
1967

19

Chemicals and allied products
Petroleum and related products

£

+
4

4

+
4

."*"•:•

+

+

+

+

+

+

4

4

**•

4

4

+
4

1966

Percent rising
All nonagricultural establishments
Ordnance and accessories
Lumber and wood products
Furniture and fixtures
Stone clay and glass products
Primary metal industries
Fabricated metal products
Machinery
Electrical equipment
Transportation equipment
Instruments and related products
Miscellaneous manufacturing industries
Food and kindred products . *
Tobacco manufactures
Textile mill products
Apparel and related products

i £
-p
1

*
+
+

4

1-month spans

D41. NUMBER OF EMPLOYEES IN
NONAGRICULTURAL ESTABLISHMENTS
(30 industry components)

1967

1966

1967

June-Mar

1-month spans

0

0

+•
0

0;
4!

O

O
O

4

+
4

+
+

+

4

4

+

+

4

+ = rising; o = unchanged; - = falling. Directions of change are computed even though data are held confidential.




57

Table 5A

ANALYTICAL MEASURES

MAY 1967

bed

SELECTED DIFFUSION INDEXES AND COMPONENTS-Continued
Basic Data—Continued

1967

1966

1966
Diffusion index title and components
June

July

Aug.

Sept.

Oct.

Jan.

Dec.

Feb.

Mar.

Apr,

Thousands of employees
D41. NUMBER OF EMPLOYEES IN
NONAGRICULTURAL ESTABLISHMENTS1-^
Finance insurance real estate
Service and miscellaneous
Federal government
State and local government

3,090
9,549

2,571

3,314

3,095
9,609
2,601
8,328

3,100

9,647

2,610

8,324

3,100
9,649
2,594
8,329

D47. INDEX OF INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION L
(24 industry components)
All industrial production
Durable goods:
Primary and fabricated metals
Primary metal products
Fabricated metal products
Machinery and related products
Machinery except electrical
Electrical machinery
Transportation equipment
Instruments and related products
Clay glass and lumber
Clay glass and stone products
Lumber and products
Furniture and miscellaneous
Furniture and fixtures
Miscellaneous
Nondurable goods:
Textiles apparel, and leather
Textile mill products
Apparel products
Leather and products
Paper and printing
Paper and products • •
Printing and publishing
•
Chemicals petroleum and rubber. ..........
Chemicals and products
Petroleum products
Rubber and plastics products ............
Foods beverages and tobacco ............
Foods and beverages
Tobacco products
.
Minerals:
Coal
Crude oil and natural gas
Metal stone and earth minerals
Stone and earth minerals

3,102
9,712
2,615
8,393

3,121
9,821
2,629
8,553

3,129
9,869
2,662
8,591

3,142
r9,919
2,673
r8,636

r3,158
r9,977
r2,688
r8,695

P3,175
P9,994
p2,709
p8,738

Index: 1957-59 = 100
156.5

157.2

158.0

157.7

158.9

159.0

r!58.1

r!56.4

156.4 P155.9

148.0
161.8

US*. 6
162.1

148 '.7
161.4

146 '.4
163.0

145.' 6
164.2

136 '.2
168.7

r!3l!9
rl66.6

rl3l'.6
rl65.3

131 !l
163.6

p!30
pl6l

18CL3
186.0
167.1
176.5

184! 7
189.1
166.0
177.0

186*. 7
193.4
166.0
177.4

188*.6
189.2
168.3
179.5

189>!9
192.6
174.6
181.8

190 .*4
188.3
171.5
184.6

r!9C)!7
r!87.2
164.6
186.2

r!87.1
r!85.1
r!59.4
rl83.4

l8/4! 8
r!82.3
164.3
r!85.9

141.0
122.9

138*. 5
119.9

140! 5
111.3

141 '.2
110.0

137^8
111.3

136 '.9
112.8

r!37*.2
115.7

136 '.9
rll6.9

136.1
P119.4

pl 83
pl78
Pl69
p!86
P129
P135
(NA)

174.6
159.3

169.7
157.2

175 .'3
158.7

173 '.2
158.4

173 '.2
157.2

174 .'o
160,9

172 '.1
160.3

170 ! 6 rl6o!6
r!57.1 r!57.9

pl64
p!58

144 '.6

152.0
1H.2

143 '.4
149.7
111.1

142.1
147.7
110.4

141.7
148.4
109.9

142^4
148.1
113.9

141.4
150.5
111.1

rl39'. 3
r!50.2
rl07,7

r!35.6
136.0
(NA)
(NA)

154!l
144.1

156.2
144.8

153 !l
145.3

151.2
144.3

153.' 3

144.1

152.6
143.7

154!o
145.5

192.7
127.7
184.1

194*. 5
126.9
188.7

194.' 4
128.5
190.3

193 '.5
130.6
193.6

196 '.9
131.2
199.2

198.7
129.0
201.6

r!98.6
r!28.7
r!98.8

127.1
122.7

128.1
116.5

129.2
119.9

128.5
120.5

127.5
116.9

119.3

131 '.9
118.5

p!35
p!34
(NA)
(NA)
p!49
(NA)
p!48
P185
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
P130
(NA)
(NA)

120.7
119.3

120.8
119.2

120.7
119.6

114.7
119.6

121.5
119.5

125.2
119.0

120.7
rl!9.3

115.7
r!20.6

115.1
119.6

134.2
133.3

134.' 6
133.7

132.1
133.8

128! 6
133.5

129 .'4
130.3

134*. 2
139.3

140*. 3
138.7

r!42.1
r!36.6

plU.2
p!37.1

p!20
p!20
p!36
(NA)
(NA)

105.6

106.0

106.4

106.4

106.3

106.2

106.4

106.4

106.3

106.2

107.7
98.9
102.5
102.0

106.6
99.0
102.7
102.2

106.2
99.1
102.7
102.7

105.9
99.2
103.0
102.5

104.8
99.7
103.2
102.5

102.5
100.4
103.3
102.9

102.6

103.6
100.4
103.7
103.2

103.6
100.6
103.8
103.3

104.1
100.6
103.9
103.2

132 !6

136 '.7
P146.4
p!03.6

pl50.5
147.2
r!86.8
200.0 p200.5
r!26.7 p!28.9
(NA)
P196.3
P130.1
131 ! 3 pl30.8
(NA)
P120.2
r!52!4
r 146.1

D58. INDEX OF WHOLESALE PRICES,
ALL MANUFACTURING 2
(22 manufacturing industries)
All manufacturing industries
Durable goods:
Lumber and wood products
Furniture and other household durables
Nonmetallic mineral products
Iron and steel

NOTE: Data are not shown when held confidential by the source agency.
^•Data are seasonally adjusted by the source agency.
2
Data are not seasonally adjusted.

58



NA=Not available,

p = Preliminary.

100.4
103.6
103.0

r = Revised.

Table SB

bed

ANALYTICAL MEASURES

MAY 1967

SELECTED DIFFUSION INDEXES AND COMPONENTS-Continued

1-month spans

6-month spans
1967

1966

1966

1967

I1

Si Lu
-SIS
*
1
•71

I §

1 t 1I S 1
D4L NUMBER OF EMPLOYEES IN
NONAGRICULTURALESTABLISHMENTS-Con.
Finance insurance real estate
Service and miscellaneous

D47. INDEX OF INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION
(24 industry components)
Percent rising1
All industrial production
Durable goods:

4

4

4

4-

4

4

4-

4

4

4-

4-

+

: 4.

4

4

4

4

4

25

46
o

71

75

62

65

58

4-

4

4

4-

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

+

4

+

4

-

+

+

+

+

+

4

0

+

4::

4;

+

4 '•'•

46

60

60
-

50
4

58 -33

-

4

•4-

4

-

-

-

-

-

+

_

4

+

4

4

_

Machinery, except electrical
Electrical machinery
Transportation equipment
Instruments and related products

4

4

4

-

-

4

4
O

4

4

4

4

4

4

*..-

4

4

4

-

-

4

PI n\t office snrl cfnnp nrnrliif*tQ

-

4

4

4

-

4

-

-

4

0

4

-

1

4-

-

4

4

4

4

NA

4

+

4

B

-g

"?

L*-

ri
4

4

4

-

i
"S.

O)
CO

+

4

"o
O

+ .
+

4 4 - 4 4 - 4 - 4 -

52

62

50

4

+

44

38

+

-

+

+

-

4

4

+

+

+

+

4

4

4

+
+

4

+

NA

-

-

-

+

+

4-

4-

4-

4

4

4

4

4

4-

4

+

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

_

_

4
4-

4-

+

4

-

_

4

Lumber and products
Furniture and fixtures
Miscellaneous
Nondurable goods:

-

42

4
4

4

4

4

4

4

40

4

4

4-

4

+

0

4

4

4

4

O

4

-

4

1S

ts

?
1
ea
I

4

4-

4

4

Primary metal products
Fabricated metal products

1 * £ S

+

State and local government

3

June-Dec

Diffusion index title and components

-

4

-

-

~

4

4

4

4

4

4

O

+
4

4

^

Tpvtilp mill nrnrtnrt^

+

Apparel products
Leather and products
Paper and printing
.
paper and products
Printing and publishing
Chemicals petroleum and rubber
Chemicals and products
Petroleum products

4

-

4

+

_

. -

NA
NA
o
NA

4-

4

4

+

. *

*.

O

4

4
+

4

NA

+

-

+

+

4

Rubber and plastics products

-

Foods and beverages
Tobacco products .............................
Minerals:
Coal
Crude oil and natural gas

-

4

4

-

+

-

-

4

+

4

4

4

-

4

4

-

+

4

-

-

+

4

4
-

-

4
4
4

-

-

- NA

4

-

-

4

4

4

4

+

+

4

- NA

NA

NA
NA

4-

NA

NA
NA
NA
+
NA
NA

4

4

4

4

4

4

4-

4

4

4

4

+

4

4-

4

4

4

+

+

+

+

4

4

O

4

0

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

NA
NA

73

73

64

64

73

73

64

4

4

4

4

0

4

4-

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4-

4-

+

+

4

4

4

+

+

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

+

4 -

-

4

4 - 4

4

:-

4-

4

+

4-

4

4

4

4

-

-

4

4

NA
NA

73

54

48

64

64

54

96

96

4

-

-

0

57
-

48

4

4

4

+

4

4

4

4

4

-:

-

4

4-

-

-

-

4

NA
NA
+
NA
+

4

-

-

'-'0

NA
NA

4

4

-

+

~

-

-

4

•' -

+

-

4
4

4

+

NA
NA
NA

4
4

4

4

4
4

NA

4

Metal mining
Stone and earth minerals

•• .

D58. INDEX OF WHOLESALE PRICES,
ALL MANUFACTURING2
(22 manufacturing industries)
Percent rising
All manufacturing industries
Durable goods:
Lumber and wood products
Furniture and other household durables
Nonmetallic mineral products* .....................
Iron and steel
+ = rising; o = unchanged; -= falling.

4

+
4

::

+

0
4-

0

4

77 73
+' o
4

4-

O

4

o

q

4

O

+

4

4

0

4

4

4

-

0

4

4

+

4

4

+

4

44
4

4
:

4
4

86

4
;

NA=Not available.

^The percent rising is based on 24 industry components.
Where actual data for separate industries are not available, estimates are used to compute the percent rising.
Directions of change for the most recent spans are computed before figures for
the current month are rounded.
2
Data are not seasonally adjusted.




59

Table 5A

ANALYTICAL MEASURES

bed

MAY 1967

SELECTED DIFFUSION INDEXES AND COMPONENTS-Continued
Basic Data—Continued

1967

1966

1966
Diffusion index title and components
June

July

Aug.

Sept.

Oct.

Dec.

Jan.

Feb.

Mar.

Apr.

Index: 1957-59 = 100
D58. INDEX OF WHOLESALE PRICES,
ALL MANUFACTURINGMtontinued
Durable goods-Continued

General purpose machinery and eouipment

Nondurable goods:
Processed foods and feeds
Wool products
Man made fiber textile products
Pulp, paper, and allied products
Chemicals and allied products
Petroleum products refined
Rubber and rubber products
Hides, skins, leather, and related products

123.2
104.1
111.2
109.8
106.0
98.8
100.7
106.9

122.9
104.2
111.2
110.0
106.2
99.0
100.7
107.1

120.4
104.2
112.3
110.6
106.2
99.1
100.5
107.1

119.9
104.4
112.4
111.1
106.8
99.2
100.1
107.1

120.3
104.6
112.7
111.8
107.4
99.5
101.7
107.2

120.5
104.9
113.2
112.4
108.1
101.5
101.7
107.5

121.8
104.8
113.6
112.8
108.5
101.9
101.6
107.9

122.3
104.8
113.6
113.0
108.7
101.8
101.6
108.0

121.1
104.8
113.7
113.0
108.8
102.2
101.6
107.8

120.0
104.9
113.6
113.0
108.8
102.3
101.6
108.0

111.0
102.8
106.5
90.0
104.8
103.0
97.6
100.2
95.4
122.9

113.8
103.0
106.7
90.1
105.0
103.2
97.9
99.9
95.1
122.7

115.7
103.3
106.6
89.6
105.0
103.2
97.9
100.7
95.1
121.2

115.5
103.1
106.1
88.8
105.1
103.1
98.0
101.0
94.7
119.9

113.9
103.3
105.6
88.1
105.3
103.1
97.9
101.3
94.6
118.7

112.8
102.7
104.8
86,9
105.4
103.0
98.2
100.2
95.0
117.3

132.8
102.5
104.7
87.1
105.7
103.1
98.4
100.3
95.6
117.9

111.7
101.8
104.7
87.1
105.9
103.3
98.5
101.9
95.8
118.0

110.6
101.3
104.0
86.9
106.0
103.6
98.5
102.4
95.9
117.0

110.0
100.8
102.9
86.8

p = Preliminary.
r = Revised.
a
Data are not seasonally adjusted.


60


Basic data for components of diffusion index D19, "Index of stock
prices, 500 common stocks," and of diffusion index 05, "Initial
claims for unemployment insurance, State programs,"are not available from the Census Bureau.

106.2
103.9
98.8
101.7
95.9
116.0

bed

Table 5B

ANALYTICAL MEASURES

MAY 1967

SELECTED DIFFUSION INDEXES AND COMPONENTS-Continued

Direction of Change—Continued
1-month spans

6-month spans

1966

Diffusion index title and components

>%
3

"Sc
3
•^

1s

00
f
_>»
3

00

Nondurable goods:
Processed foods and feeds
Cotton products
.
Wool products

0

0

4

.. 4

"4-

4-

o

4

4

b
4

*

Manmarfp fihpr fpyfilp nrndurfc

Apparel

4

3

. *.

o

*4
+
4
4
4

4
4

4
4

0

I

c
CO

o

<D
0

0

4
4
4 •
:

>
O

t>

D58. INDEX OF WHOLESALE PRICES,
ALL MANUFACTURING* -Continued
Durable goods-Continued
Fabricated structural metal products'
Miscellaneous metal products
' General purpose machinery and equipment
Miscellaneous machinery
Electrical machinery and equipment
Motor vehicles and equipment'
Miscellaneous products

4

,44.

4

4

-K

4

4

4

4

•s
Lu
l£

0

O

+

0

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

0

0

4

4

4

4

4-:

0

:

0

4

0

4'

4

4

4

0

1S

D19. INDEX OF STOCK PRICES,
500 COMMON STOCKS1
(23 industry components) 2
Percent rising3. . .
Index of 500 stock prices
*
* *•••

4
4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

0

4

4

4

4

4

+

4

4

4

4

4

+

4

+

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

O

0

4

4

4r

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

•+•

4
4

4
4

4
4

4
4

4

4
4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

-

4

4

4

4

+

4

4

4

4-

4

4

4

+

4

4

0

4

4

4

0

4-

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

+

4

4

4

4

0

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4 ;
4

4

4

0

0

:

4

4

4

+

4

4

4

,

9-month spans

IS

38

$3

60

91

92

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

Food composi te.
Tobacco (cigarette manufacturers)

4

4

•

S

4
4

Text! le products

Electric companies
Natural gas distributors
Retai 1 stores composi te..
Life insurance

•4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4
+

4

•

*

4

+

4

61 76
+ 4

+

4

+

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

'•4

+

4

4

4

4

4

+

4

4

4

38

>
O

22

>

I
1 —\ o!
12

6

10

CJ
CD
0
CO

22

5
Q.

a

<c

s

20

47
4

4

4

4

CO

£

_>»

3
^

58 66
+ 4
4

4

4

+

4

4

4

4

4

4

+
4
4

+

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

'•

4

4

4.

4

4

4

4 ]
+

4

+

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

+

4

4

4
4

4

4
4

4

4

4
4
4

4

4

4

4

4

4

+

4

4

+
4

4
4

4

4

4

4

4

4
4

4

+

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

+

4

4

4

4
0

4

4

4
4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4
4

4

4

4

4

4

4

"o
O

DO

5

4

4

4

•

=3

1967

4

4

+

.4

CB

4

4
+

£.

4

4
4

£

+

4

4
4.

_>»

en

4

4

Publ ishing
Chemicals
Drugs
Oil composite
Building materials composite
Steel
Metal fabricating
Machinery composite
Office and business equipment
Electric household appliances
Electronics *
•..
Automobiles ...*.,....
Radio and television broadcasters

1966

4

4

*..••

4

4

-h

a-s

4 25

"o
O

0

1

6

OJ

c-o

4

>

C/O

i

£
1
"o.

O

+

o
o
O
S I
"I 3?3 5 £ 3
00

•1

I

^

:>,

4

1967

OQ

j|
i
i

4

1966
3

>v

9 S

1-month spans

_>,

>
o

*?

+

o
4

18

0

4

4

OtO

O

,.

O

1967

4

0
4

1

4

4
4

0

j-^
Z3

9
1

4

4

•

jb

^
03

4

o

1966

1967

4
4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

;

4
4

_

+

4

4

4 = rising; o = unchanged; - =falling. Directions of change are computed even though data are held confidential.
1
Data are not seasonally adjusted.
2
The 23 components shown here include 18 of the more important industries and 5 composites representing an additional 23 of
the industries used in computing the diffusion index in table 4.
3
Based on 77 components.



61

Table 5B

ANALYTICAL MEASURES

bed

MAY 1967

SELECTED DIFFUSION INDEXES AND COMPONENTS-Continued
Direction of Change—Continued

9-month spans

1-month spans

2?

t>0

J f
D5. INITIAL CLAIMS FOR UNEMPLOYMENT
INSURANCE, STATE PROGRAMS1
(26 area components)
Percent rising
47 labor market areas
•
Northeast region:
Boston (6)
Buffalo (20)
Newark (11)
New York (1)
Paterson (22)
Philadelphia (4)
Pittsburgh (9)
Providence (25)
North Central region:
Chicago (2)
Cleveland (10)
Columbus (26)

17

72
4

0

*£» i* I
L

81
4-

36

4

Portland (24)
San Francisco (7i)
Seattle (17)

O

ZT

28

4
-

4

4

4

-

4

4

-

4

4-

4

4

.

47

17

4
4
4

4-

4

«

"o
0
o
0

O

45

68

77

79

4

4

4

+

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4
-{-

4

4

-

-

4

4

4

4

4

4

60

LL

81 34

34

23

17

54

4

4

4

4

4-

4
4

4
+

4

4

4

4

4

4

-

4'
+

4

4

4

4

-

-

4
4

4-

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

-

4

4

4

4

4

4

-

4

4

-

4

4

4

+

4

4

4

4

-

-

4

4-

-

4

4

4

-

4

4

-

4

4

4

+

+

4

4

4

+

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

+

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

-

4

4

4

4

-

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

+•
4

4

O

4-

4

4
4

4

4

-

4

4

4

-

4

4

4

-

4

4

4
+

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

+

4

-

4

4

+

+
4

+

4

4

4
4

4

4

4

Sit

•<"

4

4

1£

S

+

4

4-

..

00

>
o
=Z

-

-

4

55

>^

•*!»

4

4

4
4-

4

IS

4
4-

4

£ *

+

4

4

-Q
O>
LL.

4

4

4

jr
C9
—\

4

4

••
*.....
.

47

4
4

4

Indianapolis (23)
Kansas City (19)
Milwaukee hfi ).....
Minneapolis (13)
St Louis (8)
South region:
Atlanta (18)
Baltimore (12)
Dallas (15)
Houston (14)
West region:

1§

3

9

1967

1966

1967

1966

Diffusion index title and components

4
4

4

4

4

4

4

4
4

4-

4-

4
4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4
4-

4
4

4

4

- = rising; o = unchanged; + ~ falling. The signs are reversed because this series usually rises when general business activity falls and falls when business rises.
Data used are for the week including the 12th of the month. Directions of change are computed even though data are held confidential.
Series components are seasonally adjusted by the Bureau of the Census before the direction of change is determined. The
percent rising is based on 47 labor market areas. Directions of change are shown separately for only the 26 largest areas.
Bie number in parentheses indicates the size rank for each labor market area.


62





Section THREE

charts
REFERENCE CYCLES

Current expansion compared wifh expansions in
earlier business cycles

CHART 3

CYCLICAL COMPARISONS

bed

1967

MAY

COMPARISONS OF REFERENCE CYCLES

PERIOD COVERED

Percent

Nov. 1948 to Aug. 1954 (Reference trough: Oct. 1949)
July 1953 to Apr. 1958 (Reference trough: Aug. 1954}
July 1957 to Feb. 1961 (Reference trough: Apr. 1958)
May 1960 to present (Reference trough: Feb. 1961}

-Reference trough dates
29. New bldg. permits,
private housing units

Percent

- 180

106

-Reference trough dates
1. Avg. workweek, prod, wkrs., mfg.

104

: -

170
160

1 ~

150

"

140

_

130

A>
102 ;

G.

f

VVJ(AA
"yi V *\

i
™
100**

- 120 ^

110 -1
o

D

00

100*

98

.f
<•*

96

6. New orders, dur. goods indus.

J -

I

i

- 80

I

u

31. Change in book value, mfg. and
trade inventories (ann. rate,
bil. dol,; 5-term moving avg.) 1

200
190

90

i „, 70

180

Bil. dol.
+20

170
160
150

+16
140

^
130 ^

+12

_o>

120 5

S

110

GO

+4

100*

-12

0

+12 +24 +36 +48 +60 +72
Months from reference troughs

+84

90

0

80

-4

-12

0

+12

+24

+36

+48

+60

+72

+84

Months from reference troughs

Current data are shown in table 2. The number in the box indicates latest month (Arabic numeral) or quarter (Roman numeral) for which data are used. 1 Lines represent actual data rather than
percentages of reference peak levels.
'Reference peak level. .*Point at which this expansion reached a new reference peak, opoint at which a new reference trough was reached.

64



CHART 3

bed

CYCLICAL COMPARISONS

MAY 1967

COMPARISONS OF REFERENCE CYCLES-Continued |

PERIOD COVERED

Percent

Nov. 1948 to Aug. 1954 (Reference trough: Oct. 1949)
July 1953 to Apr. 1958 (Reference trough: Aug. 1954)
July 1957 to Feb. 1961 (Reference trough: Apr. 1958)
May 1960 to present (Reference trough: Feb. 1961}

-Reference trough dates
17. Ratio, price to unit
labor cost, mfg.

Percent

110

•*-—— Reference trough dates
105

23. Industrial materials prices
140
130

100*

120
110

100*

90
80
; Bil. dol.

70

+12

19. Stock prices, 500 common stocks

113. Change in consumer installment debt
(ann, rate, bil. do!.)'*

200
190
180

+10

+8

170
180

+6

150
140
130

+4

110

+2'

100*

90
80
-12

0

+12

+24

+36

+48

+60

Months from reference troughs

+72

+84

-12

0

+12 +24 +36 +48 +60 +72
Months from reference troughs

+84

Current data are shown in table 2. The number in the box indicates latest month (Arabic numeral) or quarter (Roman numeral) for which data are used. 1 Lines represent actual data rather than
percentages of reference peak levels.
* Reference peak level. * Point at which this expansion reached a new reference peak, o Point at which a new reference trough was reached.




65

CHART 3

CYCLICAL COMPARISONS

MAY 1967

bed

COMPARISONS OF REFERENCE CYCLES-Continued

PERIOD COVERED

Percent
12S

—
Nov. 1948 to Aug. 1954 (Reference trough: Oct. 1949)
July 1953 to Apr. 1958 (Reference trough: Aug. 1954)
-—- July 1957 to Feb. 1961 (Reference trough: Apr. 1958)
May 1960 to present (Reference trough: Feb. 1961}

-Reference trough dates
41. Employees in nonagri.
establishments

D
120

111

«— — Reference tumigti
50. GNP in 1958 dollars, Q

47. Industrial production
816. Mfg. and trade sales

**?

120 n
m

110

j^r..-.•-•--•*

110

Mf/:f\

\

^7 '-j * U

100*

too*

©

+12 +14 +3i +48 +80 +12
Months from reference troughs

+84

-12

" 0

+12 +24 +38 +48 +10 +12
Months from reference troughs

Current data are shown in table 2. The number in the box indicates latest month (Arabic numeral) or quarter (Roman numeral) for which data are used,
"Reference peak level. * Point at which this expansion reached a new reference peak, o Point at which a new reference trough was reached.

66



+84

CHART 3

bed

CYCLICAL COMPARISONS

MAY 1967

COMPARISONS OF REFERENCE CYCLES-Continued

PERIOD COVERED

Percent

—
Nov. 1948 to Aug. 1954 (Reference trough: Oct. 1949)
........ Ju)y 1953 to Apr 1958 (Reference trough; Aug. 1954)
-—- July 1957 to Feb. 1961 (Reference trough: Apr. 1958)
May 1960 to present (Reference trough: Feb. 1961)

•— -i"*ti!er^£i
$3ales
61. Business expenditures, new
plant and equipment, Q.
- v™ - ?&M$e tcmgrt
43. Unemployment rate, total
{percent unemployed, inverted)1

X'

67. Bank rates on short-term
business loans, Q.
55. Wholesale prices,
industrial commodities

A

y
»12

Cfi

+12 +14 +3S
Months from

+48

+1®
treygfos

+12

+14

-12

©

+12

+24 +31 +48 +80 +12
fromref@renc§

Current data are shown in table 2, The number in the box indicates latest month (Arabic numeral) or quarter (Roman numeral) for which data are used. 1 Lines represent actual data rather than
percentages of reference peak levels.
* Reference peak level. * Point at which this expansion reached a new reference peak, o point at which a new reference trough was reached.
* La test data anticipated.




67

CHART 3

CYCLICAL COMPARISONS

MAY 1967

bed

COMPARISONS OF REFERENCE CYCLES-Continued

PERIOD COVERED

Bil. dol.

—
Nov. 1948 to Aug. 1954 (Reference trough: Oct. 1949)
"•—" July 1953 to Apr. 1958 (Reference trough: Aug. 1954)
--— July 1957 to Feb. 1961 (Reference trough: Apr. 1958)
May 1960 to present (Reference trough: Feb. 1961)

-Reference trough dates
95. Federal surplus or deficit, national
income m product account, a
. rate, bit dol.)'

Percent

+20
+15

-—Reference trough rt
dates
/

115

62. Labor cost per /
unit of output, /
mfg.

+10

**
+5 "S

110

105

-5
100*

Percent
change

95
160

71. Book value, mfg.
and trade inventories

98. Change in money supply and time deposits
lann. rate, percent;6-temi moving avg.)1

150

+12
+10

140

+8

130

+6 m
j1
<
c
+4

CsJ

120 «
2
CO
110

+2

100*

90
-12

0

+12

+24

+36

+48

+60

Months from reference troughs

+72

+84

-12

0

+12

+24

+36

+48

+60

+72

+84

Months from reference troughs

Current data are shown in table 2. The number in the box indicates latest month (Arabic numeral) or quarter (Roman numeral) for which data are used. 1 Lines represent actual data rather than
percentages of reference peak levels.
'Reference peak level. * Point at which this expansion reached a new reference peak, o Point at which a new reference trough was reached.

68



Appendix A.-BUSINESS CYCLE EXPANSIONS AND CONTRACTIONS IN THE UNITED STATES: 1854 TO 1961
Duration in months.
Contraction
(trough from
previous
peak)

Business cycle reference dates

Trough

Cycle

Expansion
(trough to
peak)

Trough from
previous
trough

Peak from
previous
peak

Peak

December 1854
December 1858
June 1861
December 1867
December 1870
March 1879

June 1857
October 1860
April 1865
June 1869
October 1873
March 1882. .

May 1885
April 1888
May 1891
June 1894
June 1897
December 1900

March 1887
July 1890
January 1893
December 1895
June 1899
September 1902

August 1904
June 1908
January 1912
December 1914
March 1919
July 1921
July 1924

;

(X)
18
8
32
'15
65

30
22
46
13
34
36

(X)
48
30
'78
36
99

(X)
40
54
50
52
101

38
13
10
17
18
18

22
27
20
18
24
21

74
35
37
37
36
42

60
40
30
35
42
39

May 1907
January 1910
January 1913
August 1918
January 1920
May 1923

23
13
24
23
7
13

33
19
12
44
10
22

44
46
43
35
51
23

56
32
36
67
17
40

November 1927
March 1933
June 1938
October 1945
October 1949

October 1926
August 1929
May 1937
February 1945
November 1948
July 1953

14
13
43
13
8
11

27
21
50
80
37
45

36
40
64
63
88
?g

41
34
93
93
?5
j>6

August 1954
April 1958
February 1961

July 1957
May 1960

13
9
9

35
25
(X)

34

48
34
(X)

Average, all cycles:
26 cycles, 1854-1961 . .
10 cycles, 1919-1961 . .
4 cycles, 1945-1961...

19
15
10

30
35
36

49
50
46

149
54
3
46

Average, peacetime cycles:
22 cycles, 1854-1961 ..
8 cycles, 1919-1961,..
3 cycles, 1945-1961 . . .

20
16
10

26
28
32

45
45
42

....

2

*46
5
48
42

6

NOTE: Underscored figures are the wartime expansions (Civil War, World Wars I,and II, and Korean War), the postwar contractions,and
the full cycles that in elude, the wartime expansions.

^5 cycles, 1857-1960.
9 cycles, 1920-1960.

2

3
4
4

cycles, 1945-1960.
21 cycles, 1857-1960.

?] cycles, 1920-1960.
63 cycles, 1945-1960.

Source: National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.




69

Appendix B.-SPECIFIC TROUGH AND PEAK DATES FOR SELECTED BUSINESS INDICATORS

Specific trough dates for reference expansions beginning inSelected series

Feb.
1961

Apr.
1958

Aug.
1954

Oct.
1949

June
1938

Mar.
1933

Nov.
1927

July
1924

July
1921

NBER LEADING INDICATORS

!. Average workweek, production workers,
Dec.
manufacturing
30. Nonagricultural placements, all industries. . . Jan.
Jan.
38 Index of net business formation
Jan.
6 New orders durable goods industries
10. Contracts and orders, plant and equipment. . . Mar.
29. New building permits, private housing units. . Dec.
31. Change in book value, manufacturing and
trade inventories
23. Industrial materials prices
19. S^ock prices, 1500 common stocks
16. Corporate profits after taxes (Q)
17. Ratio, price to unit labor cost,
manufacturing
113. Change in consumer installment debt

Dec.
Dec.
Oct.
IstQ

'60
'61
'61
'61
'61
'60

Apr.
Mar.
Apr.
Jan.
Mar.
Feb.

'58
'58
'58
'58
'58
'58

Apr.
May
Mar.
Sep.
Mar.
Sep.

'54
'54
'54
'53
'54
'53

Apr.
July
July
June
Apr.
Jan.

'49 Jan. '38 June '32 Apr. '28 July '24 Feb. '21
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
'49
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
'49
(NSC) May ' 24 Jan. '21
'49 Apr. '38 Mar. '33
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
'49
'49 Dec. '37 Dec. '32 May ' 27 July '24 Dec. '20

'60
'60
'60
'61

Apr.
Apr.
Dec.
IstQ

'58
'58
'57
'58

Nov.
Feb.
Sep.
4thQ

'53
'54
'53
'53

Apr.
June
June
2ndQ

(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
'49
'49 June '38 July '32 Aug. '28 June '24 July '21
(NSC) Oct. '23 Aug. '21
'49 Apr. '38 June »32
'49 2ndQ '38 3rdQ '32 4thQ '27 3rdQ '24 2ndQ '21

Jan. '61 Mar.
Apr. '61 Mar.

'58 Mar. '54 May ' 49 Dec. '37 Apr. '32 Aug. '27 June '24 Mar. '21
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
'58 Mar. '54 Jan. '49 Feb. '38 Feb. '32

NBER ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS

41. Employees in nonagri cultural establishments. Feb. '61 May ' 5$ Aug. '54 Oct. '49
May '61 July '58 Sep. '54 Oct. '49
43. Unemployment rate, total (inverted)
50. GNP in 1958 dollars (Q)i.
IstQ '61 IstQ '58 2ndQ ' 54 2ndQ '49^
47.
52.
816.
54.

Industrial production
Personal income
Manufacturing and trade sales
Sales of retai 1 stores

Feb. '61
(NSC)
Jan. '61
Apr. '61

Apr.
Feb.
Mar.
Mar.

»58
'58
'58
'58

Apr.
Apr.
Aug.
Jan.

June '38 Mar. '33 Jan. '28 July '24 July '21
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
June '38 May '33
(NSC)
(NSC)
4thQ '21
IstQ '38 3rdQ '32

'54 Oct. '49 May '38
'54 July '49 May '3-8x
(NA)
'54 Oct. '49
(NSC)
May '38
'54

July '32 Nov. '27 July '24 Apr. '21
2ndQ'21
Mar. '33 4 t h Q ' 2 6 2nd
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
Mar.
'22
(NSC)
(NSC)
Mar. '33

W

NBER LAGGING INDICATORS

502. Unemployment rate, persons unemployed
15 weeks and over ( inverted)
6L Business expenditures, new plant and
equipment (Q)
71. Book value, manufacturing and trade
inventori es
62. Labor cost per unit of output,
manufacturing
72. Commercial and industrial loans
outstanding
67. Bank rates on short-term business
loans (Q)

July '61 Aug.

2ndQ '61 3rdQ '58 IstQ '55

Mar.

(NA)

'58 Oct. '54 Nov. '49
4thQ '49

3rdQ '38 IstQ '33

(NA)

'61 Aug. ' 58 Oct. '54 Dec. '49

Sep. '61 June '59 Sep. '55
(NSC)

July '50

July '58 Oct. '54 Aug.

4thQ '61 2ndQ '58 IstQ '55

Jun e ' 40

(NA)
July '33

'38

(NA)

3rdQ 'U

(NSC)

'49 Dec.

IstQ '50

(NA)

4thQ '27

(NA)

(NA)

(NA)

3rdQ '24 4thQ '21

(NA)

(NA)

(NSC)

(NSC)

(NA)

(NA)

Feb. '28 Nov.

'24

(NA)
Apr.

'22

, (NA)

Sep. '22

NOTE: Specific trough dates are the actuaj dates when individual series reached a trough as distinguished from the reference dates which are those dates designated as
the trough of business activity as a whole. This table shows, for the 25 indicators on the NBER "short list," the specific dates corresponding to reference dates in 9 recent
business cycles.
NA= Not available.


70


NSC= No specific cycle corresponding to reference date.

Appendix B.-SPECIFIC TROUGH AND PEAK DATES FOR SELECTED BUSINESS INDICATORS-Continued

Specific peak dates for reference contractions beginning inSelected series

May
1960

July
1957

July
1953

Nov.
1948

May
1937

Aug.
1929

Oct.
1926

May
1923

Jan.
1920

NBER LEADING INDICATORS
1. Average workweek, production workers,
manufacturing
30. Nonagricultural placements, all industries. . .
38. Index of net business formation
6. New orders durable goods industries
10. Contracts and orders, plant and equipment* . .
29. New building permits, private housing units. .
31. Change in book value, manufacturing and
trade inventories
23. Industrial materials prices
19 Stock prices 500 common stocks
16 Corporate profits after taxes (Q)
17. Ratio, price to unit labor cost,
manufacturing
113 Change in consumer installment debt

June
July
Apr.
Apr.
Sep.
Nov.

'59
'59
'59
'59
'59
'58

Nov.
Nov.
Mar.
Dec.
Nov.
Feb.

'55 Mar. '53
'55 Feb. '53
'55 Sep. '52
'55 Jan. '53
1
56 May ' 51
'55 Nov. '52

(NA)
(NSC) . D e c . '36 Oct. '29 Nov. '25 Nov. '22
(NSC)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
Apr. '^6
(NA)
(NSC)
Nov. '25 Jan. '23
Aug. '48 Dec. '36
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
June '48
1
Oct. '47 Feb. '37 Feb. '28 July 25 Jan. '24 July '19

Dec.
Nov.
July
2ndQ

'59
'59
'59
'59

Apr.
Dec.
July
4thQ

'56
'55
'56
'55

July
Jan.
June
2ndQ

June '59
Aug. '59

Oct. '55
Mar. '55

Jan.
Feb.
Jan.
2ndQ

'53
'51
'53
'53

(NA)
'-46
'48 Mar. '37
' 48 Feb. '37
'48 4thQ '36

(NA)
Mar. '29
Sep. '29
3rdQ '29

Jan. '51 June '48 Mar. '37 July '29
Dec. '52 Mar. '48 Mar. '36 May ' 29

(NA)
'25
(NSC)
3rdQ '26

(NA)
(NA)
Mar. '23 Apr. '20
Mar. '23 July '19
(NA)
2ndQ '23

Sep. '26
(NA)

June '22 Feb. '20
(NA)
(NA)'

Nov.

NBER ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
41. Employees in nonagricultural establishments, Apr. '60 Mar. '57 June ' 53 Sep. '48 July '37 Aug. '29 Jan. '26 June '23 Jan. '20
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
Feb. '60 Mar. '57 June ' 53 Jan . ' 48 July '37
43 Unemployment rate total (inverted)
(NA')
(NSC)
(NSC)
IstQ '60 3rdQ '57 2ndQ '53 4thQ '48 3rdQ '37 3rdQ '29
50. GNP in 1958 dollars (Q)
47.
52
816.
54

Industrial production
Personal income
Manufacturing and trade sales
Sales of retail stores

. .

Jan. '60
(NSC)
Jan. '60
Apr. '60

Feb.
Aug.
Feb,
Aug.

'57
'57
'57
'57

July
Oct.
July
Mar.

'53 July '48 May ' 37 July '29
'53 Oct. '48 June '37 Aug. '29
(NA)
(NA)
'53 Aug. '48
(NSC)
Sep. '37 Sep. '29
'53

Mar. '27 May i 23 Feb. '20
(NA)
2ndQ '26 IstQ '24
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NSC)
July '20
(NSC)

NBER LAGGING INDICATORS
502. Unemployment rate, persons unemployed
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
15 weeks and over ( inverted). .......... May ' 60 Sep. '57 Oct. '53 Jan. '49
61. Business expenditures, new plant and
2ndQ '60 3rdQ '57 3rdQ '53 4thQ '48 3rdQ '37 2ndQ '29 4thQ '26 2ndQ '23 2ndQ '20
equipment (0)
71. Book value, manufacturing and trade
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
July '60 Sep. '57 Sep. '53 Feb. '49
inventories
62. Labor cost per unit of output,
manufacturing
72. Commercial and industrial loans
outstanding
67. Bank rates on short-term business
loans (Q)

Jan.

'61 Mar. '58 Mar. '54 Nov.

'48

Dec. '37

(NSC)

(NSC)

July '53 Aug.

'48

Sep. '37

(NA)

(NA)

(NSC)

4thQ '59

Sep. '57

4thQ '57 4thQ '53

2ndQ '49

(NSC)

Oct.. '29

Oct. '26

Oct. '23 Nov.
(NA)

'20

(NA)

Oct. '23 Feb. '21

NOTE: Specific peak dates are the actual dates when individual series reached a peak as distinguished from the reference dates which are those dates designated as.the
peak of business activity as a whole. This table shows, for the 25 indicators on the NBER "short list," the specific dates corresponding to reference dates in 9 recent business cycles.
NA= Not available.

NSC= No specific cycle corresponding to reference date.




71

Appendix C.-AVERAGE CHANGES AND RELATED MEASURES FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES
Part l.-Average Percentage Changes

Period
covered

Monthly series

Cl

1

c

I/C

I/C
for
MCD
span

MCD

Average duration of run
(ADR)

Cl

1

C

MCD

NBER LEADING INDICATORS
*1.
*30.
2.
5.

Avg. workweek, production workers, mfg
Nonagricultural placements, all industries
Accession rate manufacturing
Average weekly initial claims, State
unemployment insurance
3 Layoff rate manufacturing

*38 Index of net business formation
13. New business incorporations
*6 New orders durable goods industries
94 Construction contracts value
*10 Contracts and orders plant and equipment
24. New orders, mach. arid equip, industries
9. Construction contracts, commercial
and industrial, floor space
7. Private nonfarm housing starts
*29 New building permits private housing
37. Purchased materials, percent reporting
higher inventories
26. Buying policy, production materials,
commitments 60 days or longer

;

32. Vendor performance, percent reporting
slower deliveries ,
*23 Industrial materials prices
*19. Stock prices, 500 common stocks
*17 Ratio price to unit labor cost manufacturing
14 Liabilities of business failures
39. Delinquency rate, installment credit loans

Jan. '53-June '66-Jan. '53-Sep. '65..
Jan. '53-June'66..

.47
1.83
4.62

.41
1.34
4.38

.18
1.09
,1.44

2.30
1.23
3.04

3
2
4

.76
.63
.79

2.21
2.11
2.21

1.40
1.52
1.50

10.73
7.24
11.50

4.18
3.97
3.76

Jan. '53-Sep. '65..
Jan. '53-June '66..

4.95
8. 75

4.38
7.96-

2.17
3.23

2.02
2.47

2
3

.95
.76

1.69
2(.27

1.42
1.53

12.67
10.73

3.97
4.82

Jan.
Jan.
Jan.
Jan.
Jan.
Jan.

.79
2.49
3.76
6.64
4.69
4.18

.60
2.18
3.33
6.38
4.39
3.81

.53
1.00
1.51
1.55
1.43
1.52

1.15
2.18
2.20
4.12
3.08
2.51

2
3
3
5
4
3

.66
.78
.66
.87
.84
.88

2.71
1.92
1.81
1.55
1.88
1.83

1.63
1.63
1.58
1.52
1.71
1.60

6.61
7.24
8.44
8.00
9.50
.10.86

4.08
3.19
4.41
3.15
3.39
3.41

Jan. '53-Sep. '65..
May'59-Sep. '65 ..
Jan. '53-June'66..

9.30
7.16
3.70

9.17
7.08
3.31

.97
.89
1.30

9.41
7.91
2.54

6
6
3

t1)

C1)

.82

1.60
1.38
1.87

1.48
1.38
1.55

12.67
15.20
12.38

3.00
2.63
3.06

Jan. '53-Sep. '65..

6.46

5,24

2.84

1.85

3

.76

2.37

1.62

7.60

3.57

Jan. '53-Sep. '65..

5.27

4.77

1.98

2.41

3

.77

1.88

1.63

8,94

3.49

'53-Sep. '65.. 7.47
'53-Sep. '65- 1.31
'53-Sep. '65- 2.49
.62
'53-Oct. '66'53-Sep. '65- •18.74
'53-Dec. '65.. 2.63

5.79
1.04
1.68
.51
18.24
2.42

4.00
.73
1.64
.27
1.70
.95

1.45
1.41
1.02
1.93
10.72
2.55

2
2
2
3
6
3

.95
.99
.57
.92
.80

3.17
2.49
2.37
2.62
1.49
1.85

1.85
2.11
1.58
1.70
1.39
1.57

8.94
11.69
9.50
5.69
8.94
8.44

3.77
3.87
3.97
4.18
2.23
4.17

Jan. '53-Dec. '66..
Jan. '53-Sep. ' 6 5 . .
Jan. '53-Dec. '66Jan. '53-June '66. .
Jan. '53-Dec. '66. .
Jan. '53-Dec. '66..

3.12
3.00
.44
.31
.35
3.94

1.77
1.87
.31
.14
.29
3.05

2.34
2.30
.31
.27
.21
2.16

.76
.81
1.00
.52
1.42
1.41

1
1
2
1
2
2

.76
.81
.51
.52
.75
.72

3.27
3.10
2.98
5.19
2.09
2.53

1.70
1.39
1.52
1.50
1.55
1.44

9.82
8.94
12.85
17.89
27.83
7.95

3.27
3.10
5.03
5.19
4.05
4.05

Jan. '53-Sep. '65Nov. '54-Dec. '66-.
Jan. '53-Sep. '65Jan. '53-June '66- .
Jan. '53-June '66. .

4.19
5.07
1.02
.53
.84

2.19
4.38
.54
.27
.50

3.29
2.55
.76
.46
.64

.67
1.72
.71
.58
.78

1
2
1
1
1

.67
.92
.71
.58
.78

4.90
3.37
3.62
4.88
2.93

,1.75
1.48
1.67
1.56
1.56

7.60

11.69
23.00
14.64

4.90
4.11
3.62
4.88
2.93

Jan. '53-Dec. '66..
Jan. '53-Sep. '65..
Jan. '53-Sep. '65..

1.02
.97
1.45

.74
.83
.54

.62
.44
1.28

1.19
1.88
,42

2
3
1

.62
.70
.42

2.35
2. OS
5.63

1.50
1.57
1.57

15.20
10.86

3.69
4.84
5.63

Jan. '53-Dec. '66. .

.17

.11

.13

.84

1

.84

3.88

1.64

9.82

3.88

.13
4.46
.82
.93
1.10

1.25
1.12
1.60
1.41
1.90

2
2
3
2
3

.77
.73
.74
.98
.87

3.27
2.53
2.54
2.76
2.58

1.78
1.77
1.85
2.00
1.88

10.44

4.61
3.68
3.78
3.68
3.66

Jan.
Jan.
Jan.
Jan.
Jan.
Jan.

'53-Sep.
'53-Sep.
'53-Sep.
'53-Sep.
'53-Sep.
'53-Sep.

'65 . .
'65..
'65 . .
'65..
'65..
'65 . .

C1)

NBER ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
301.
46.
511.
*41.
42.
*43.

Nonagricultural job openings unfilled
Help-wanted advertising
Man-hours in nonfarm establishments
Employees in nonagricultural establishments
Total nonagricultural employment
Unemployment rate, total

45. Average weekly insured unemployment
rate, State programs
40. Unemployment rate, married males
*47. Industrial production
*52. Personal income
53, Wage and salary income in mining, mfg., and constr.
*816. Manufacturing and trade sales
*54. Sales of retail stores
96. Unfilled orders, durable goods indus
55. Wholesale prices, industrial
commodities
58.
114.
116.
115.
117.

Wholesale prices, manufactured goods
Treasury bill rate
Corporate bond yields
Treasury bond yields
Municipal bond yields

See footnotes at end of table.

72



Jan.
Jan.
Jan.
Jan.
Jan.

'53-Dec. '66..
'53-Sep. '65, .
'59-June '66. .
'53-Sep. '65..
'53-SeD. '65..

.20
6.70
1.58
1.65
2.46

.16
5.00
1.31
1.31
2.08

a. 53

8.79

6.61

12.71
8.00
8.00

Appendix C.-AVERAGE CHANGES AND RELATED MEASURES FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES-Continued
Part l.-Average Percentage Changes-Continued

Period
covered

Monthly series

Cl

c

1

I/C

I/C
for
MCD
span

WICD

Average duration of run
(ADR)

Cl

1

C

MCD

NBER LAGGING INDICATORS
*5Q2. Unemployment rate, 15 weeks and over
505. Machinery and equip, sales and business
construction expenditures
*71. Book value, mfg. and trade inventories
65. Book value, manufacturers' inventories
of finished goods
*62. Labor cost per unit of output, manufacturing
66. Consumer installment debt
*72. Com. and Indus, loans outstanding, weekly
reporting large commercial banks, .
118. Mortgage yields, residential

Jan.'53-Dec. '66..

6.52

5.25

Jan. '53-Dec. '66..
Jan. '53-Dec. '66..

1.63

1.32

4.16

.54

.18

.89
.50

Jan. '53-Dec. '66..

.62

.28

.55

Jan. '53-Sep. '65. .
Jan. r 53-Sep. '65. .

.51
.84

.37
.1.1

.30
.82

Jan. '53-Dec. '66
Jul. '61-Sep. '65..

.95

.46
.07

.83
.11

.12

.14
.94

.1.1

1.26

2

.64

4,07

1.55

7.95

1.49

.36

2
1

.75
.36

1.96
7.26

1.50
1.58

18.56
23.86

3.32
7,26

.52

1

.52

3.63

1,42

15 . .18

3.63

2
1

.72
.14

2.54

3.81

.11.69

1.57
1.63

7.86

.14

21.71

11.69

.55
.65

1
1

.55
.65

10.00

1,50
1.92

.83

1
4

.83
.91

3.98
1,78

1.62
1.66

(X)
.85
.86

1.43
1.63
1.83
1.59

1.35
1.55
1.62
1.43

16.67

1.26

4.07

5 . 72

23.86

4.07

5.56

10.00

9.82

3.98
4.06

OTHER SELECTED U.S. SERIES
81. Consumer prices
86. Exports, excluding military aid
861. Export orders, durables except motor vehicles
'. and parts
862. Export orders nonelectrical machinery . .
87. General imports
83 Federal cash receipts from public
82. Federal cash payments to public
91. Defense Department obligations, total
90. Defense Dept. obligations, procurement
99. New orders, defense products
92. Military contract awards in U.S.

Jan. '53-Dec. '6& .
Jan. '53-Oct. '64..

.19
3.81

3.56

Oct. (62-Dec, '66. . 12.45
6.32
Jan. '57-Dec. '66
Jan. '53-Oct. '64.. 3.04
Jan. '55-Dec. '64.. 3.87

12.28

Jan. '53-Sep. '65..
Jul. '53-Sep. '65..
Jan. '56-Sep. '65..
Jan. '53-Sep. '65..
Jan. '53-Sep. '65. .

6.10 •
2.87
3.80

4.42

4.25

13.86
27.42
22.53
24.51

,13.59
27.34
22.53
24.35

3.77
7.80
3.31
3.59
6.37

1.57
1.84

.80
.60
.82
1.26
2.16
1.92
2.94

''6
4
4
6

C1)
1

14.10

9.92

10.85
14.87

2.37
3.05
• 3.54

3.3.3

C )

8.28

6
6
6
6
6

( xx )
( 1)
Cx )
()

1.57
1.40
1.43
1.57
1.63

1.45
1.42
1.43
1.48
1.57

8.00
6.64
8.92
9.50
8.44

2.53
2.07
2.02
2.53
2.83

1.58
2.41
1.55
2.02
1.01
2.24
1.96

2
3
2
3
2
3
3

.79
.86
.87
.64
,47
.84
.67

3.38
2.58
3.62

1.52
1.48
1.73
1.62
1.37
1.45
1.69

21.71
.10.13
25.33
19.00
13.82
16.89
16.89

4.87
5.17
5.81
5.00
5.21
6.00
4.84

5.16

10.77
12.68
11.72

INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS OF
INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION
123. Canada
122. United Kingdom
121. OECD European countries
125 West Germany
128. Japan
126 France
127 Italy

Jan.
Jan,
Jan.
Jan.
Jan.
Jan.
Jan.

'53-Sep.
'53-Sep.
'53-Sep.
'53-Sep.
'53-Sep.
'53-Sep.
'53-Sep.

'65. .
'65..
'65. .
'65..
'65..
'65..
'65..

.93

.82

1.08

1.02

.86
1.51
1.73
1.45
1.50

.77

'

1.33
1.23
1.38
1.40

.52
.42
.49
.66
1.22

.62
.72

3.38
2.67
2.49

Average duration of run
(ADR)

TTc"
Period
covered

Quarterly series

cT

T

C

[7c

for
QCD
span

QCD

•

2.71.

Cl

I

C

QCD

NBER LEADING INDICATORS
11. New capital appropriations, manufacturing
*16 Corporate profits after taxes
22. Ratio, profits to income originating,
110 Total private borrowing

•

IQ'53-IIIQ'65.
1Q'53-1Q'66

10.36
5.56

irr^-ivo'fiG

IQ'53-IQ'66

4.18
5.71

IQ'53-IVQ'66

10.9"

IQ'53-IQ'66
IQ'53-IQ'66
IQ'53-IQ'66
IQ'53-IIIQ'65

1.54
1.28
1.37
6.63

4.70
2.95

7.69
4.26

.61
.69

l
l

.61
.69

2.94
3.06

1.32
1.27

3.33
5.20

2.94
3.06

2.69
3.60
6.31

2.99
3.70
7.99

.90
.97
.79

l
l
l

.90
.97
.79

2.36
2.50
2.20

1.30
1.31
1.22

6.50
4.23
3.67

2.36
2.50
2.20

1.45
1.14
1.32
6.38

.24
.31
.23
.19

l
l
l
l

.24
.31
.23
.19

5.78
3.47

1.33
1.33
1.21
1.32

7.43
5.78

5.78
3.47

NBER ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
49
*50
57
97.

GNP in current dollars
GNP in 1958 dollars
Final sates
Backlog of capital appropriations, manufacturing .

.34
.35
.30
1.20

'

10.40
4.17

10.40

10.40

8.33

4.17

See footnotes at end of table.




73

Appendix C-AVERAGE CHANGES AND RELATED MEASURES FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES-Continued
Part 1.-Average Percentage Changes-Continued
Average duration of run
(ADR)
•

i/r
Quarterly series

Period
covered

Cl

1

17c

C

for
QCD
span

QCD

Cl

1

C

QCD

NBER LAGGING INDICATORS
*61. Business expenditures, new plant and
equipment
68. Labor cost (cur. dol.) per unit of gross product
(1958 dol.), nonfinancial corporations
*67. Bank rates on short-term business
loans

3.21

.77

IQ'53-IVQ'66

.85

.40

IQ'53-IIIQ'65

1.99

IQ'53-IVQ'66

2.34

IQ'53-IIIQ'65 .

2.99

.26

1

.26

5.56

1.47

5.56

5.56

.69

.57

1

.57

2.89

1.28

4.23

2.89

.96

1.80

.54

1

.54

2.38

1.47

3.33

2.38

.87

1.89

.46

1

.46

2.62

1.34

4.58

2.62

OTHER SELECTED U.S. SERIES
101. National defense purchases, current dollars

*Series included in the 1966 NBER "short list" of 25 indicators.

The following are Drief definitions of the measures shown
in this table. More complete explanations appear in Electronic
Computers and Business Indicators, by Julius Shiskin, issued
as Occasional Paper 57 by the National Bureau of Economic
Research., 1957 (reprinted from Journal of Business, October
1957).
"CX", is the average month-to-month (or quarter-to-quarter)
percentage change, without regard to sign, in the seasonally
adjusted series. "I" is the same for the irregular component,
obtained by dividing_the cyclical component into the seasonally
adjusted series. "C" is the same for the cyclical component,
a smooth, flexible moving average of the seasonally adjusted
series.
"MOD" (months for cyclical dominance) provides an estimate
of the appropriate time span over which to observe cyclical
movements in a monthly series. It is small for smooth series
and large for irregular series. In deriving MOD, percentage
changes are computed separately for the irregular component
and the cyclical component over 1-month spans (Jan.-Feb., Feb.Mar., etc.), 2-month spans (Jan.-Mar., Feb.-Apr., etc.), up to
12-month spans. Averages, without regard to sign, are then
computed for the changes over each span. MOD is the shortest
span in months for which the average percentage change (without regard to sign) in the cyclical component is'larger than
the average percentage change (without regard to sign) in the
irregular component, and remains so. Thus, it indicates the
point at which fluctuations in the seasonally adjusted series
become dominated by cyclical rather than irregular movements.
All series with an MCD greater than "5" are shown as "6". Similarly, "QCD" provides an estimate of the appropriate time
span over which to observe cyclical movements in quarterly
series. It is the shortest span (in quarters) for which the
average percentage change (without regard to sign) in the
cyclical component is larger than the average percentage change
(without regard to sign) in the irregular component, and
remains so.
"I/C" is a measure of the relative smoothness (small values)
or irregularity (large values) of the seasonally adjusted

74



shown for series when MOD is "6" or more.

series. For monthly series, it is shown for 1-month spans ana
for spans of the period of MCD. When MCD is "6", no I/C ratio
is shown for the MCD period. For quarterly series, I/C is
shown for 1-quarter spans and QCD spans.

"Average Duration of Run" (ADR) is another measure of
smoothness and is equal to the average number of consecutive,
monthly changes in the same direction in any series of observations. When there is no change between 2 months, a change
in the same direction as the preceding change is assumed. The
ADR is shown for the seasonally adjusted series Cl, irregular
component I, cyclical component C, and the MCD curve. The MCD
curve is an unweighted moving average (with the number of terms
equal to MCD) of the seasonally adjusted series.

A comparison of these measures of ADR with the expected ADR
of a random series gives an indication of whether the changes
approximate those of a random series. Over 1-month intervals
in a random series, the expected value of the ADR is 1.5. The
actual value of ADR falls between 1.36 and 1.75 about 95 percent of the time. Over 1-month intervals in a moving average
(MCD) of a random series, the expected value of ADR is 2.0.
For example, the ADR of Cl is 1.69 for the series on average
weekly initial claims, State unemployment insurance (series
5). This indicates that 1-month changes in the seasonally adjusted series, on the average, reverse sign about as often as
expected in a random series. The ADR measures shown in the
next two columns, 1.42 for I and 12.67 for C, suggest that the
seasonally adjusted series has been successfully separated into an essentially random component and a cyclical (nonrandom)
component. Finally, ADR is 3.97 for the MCD moving average.
This indicates that a 2-month moving average of the seasonally
adjusted series (2 months being the MCD span) reverses direction, on the average, about every 4 months. The increase in
the ADR from 1.42 for Cl to 3.97 for the MCD moving average
indicates that, for this series, month-to-month changes in the
MCD moving average usually reflect the underlying eyelieal
trend movements of the series, whereas the month-to-month
changes in the seasonally adjusted series usually do not.

Appendix C.-AVERAGE CHANGES AND RELATED MEASURES FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES-Continued
Part 2.-Average Unit Changes

Period
covered

Monthly series

Unit of
measure

Cl

1

C

I7c

MCD

Average duration of run
(ADR)

I/C
for
MCD
span

Cl

1

C

MCD

NBER LEADING INDICATORS
*31. Change in book value, manufacturing
and trade inventories

Jan. '53-Sep. '65 Ann. rate,
bil.dol..

20. Change in book value of manufacturers'
inventories of materials supplies
25. Change in unfilled orders, dur. goods industries.
98* Change in money supply and time deposits

Jan. '53-Sep. '65 ... do ...
Jan. '53-Sep. '65 Bil. do!..
Jan. '53-Sep. '65 Ann. rate,
percent .
f

85. Change in total money supply
33. Change in mortgage debt

Jan. 53-Sep. '65 ... do ...
Jan. '55-Dec. '66 Ann rate
bil.dol..
Jan. ' 53-Sep. 'B5 ' . . .do- . .
Aug. '59-Dec. '66 . . . do • • •

*113. Change in consumer installment debt
112. Change in business loans

3.68

3.58

.74

4.87

5

.98

1.51

1.43

9.06

2.65

1.51

1.44

.48

.46

.29
.13

4.97
3.51

6
4

C1)
.98

1.67
1.69

1,50
1.62

6.08
7.60

3.00
3.10

2.56

2.58

.29

8.91

6

C1)

1.42

1,37 10.87

2.59

1

3.15

3,17

.33

9.61

6

C )

1.39

1.39 10.87

2.47

1.31

1.22

3.58
2.56
4.56

4
3
6

.93
.92
.90

1.52
1.65
1.60

1.39 11.92
1.49 10.13
1.66 8.00

2.69
3.13
4.15

.87

.79

2.22

2.10

.34
.31
.46

Jan. '53-Sep. '65 Mil. dol . . 98.01 78.89

46.86

1.68

3

.68

2.03

1.60 10.13

3.49

58.44

55.87

17.28

3.23

3

.97

1.82

1.61 9.42

2.64

4.34

4.22

.82

5.16

5

.98

1.59

1.43

7.44

2.74

NBER ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
93 Free reserves
OTHER SELECTED U.S. SERIES
88 Merchandise trade balance
84. Federal cash surplus or deficit

...

Jan '53-June '62 ... do ...
Jan." '55-Oec. '64 Ann. rate,
bil. do!..

17c

Quarterly series

Period
covered

Unit of
measure

ci

c"

T

iTc

Average duration of run
(ADR)

for
QCD
span

Cl

1

C

2

.48

1.73

1.37

4.00

2
2

.45
,55

1.67
2.00

1.25 3.13
1.41 2.67

2.72
2.56

1

.76

2.17

1.37

3.71

2.17

QCD

QCD

NBER LEADING INDICATORS
21. Change in business inventories, all
industries

1Q'53-IQ'66.... Ann. rate,
bil. dol..

2.28

1.43

1.37

1.04

2.83

OTHER SELECTED U.S. SERIES
89. U.S. balance of payments:

a Liquidity balance basis
b. Official settlements basis

IQ'53-IIIQ'65... Mil. dol.. 340.64 225.64 216.94 1.04
...do... 492.17 302. 66 286.13 1.06
IQ'60-IQ'66

95. Fed. balance, nat'l. income and product acct. . . 1Q'53-IQ'66.... Ann. rate,
bil. do!..

2.50

^Series included in the 1966 NBER "short list11 of 25 indicators.

The measures in the above table are computed "by an additive
method to avoid_ the distortion caused by zero and negative
data. Thus,, "CI11 is the average month-to-month (or quarterto-quarter) change in the seasonally adjusted series. This
average is computed without regard to sign and is. expressed in
the same unit of measure as the series itself, "C11 is the same
for the cyclical component, which is a moving average of the




1.37

1.81

.76

shown for series when MCD is "6" or more.

seasonally adjusted series. "I" is the same for the irregular
component, which is determined "by subtracting the cyclical component from the seasonally adjusted series.
All other measures shown above have the same meaning
part 1.

as in

75

Appendix D.-CURRENT ADJUSTMENT FACTORS FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES (MAY 1966 TO JUNE 1967)

19f)7

19()6

Series
May

June

July

Aug.

Sept.

Oct.

105.2

84.5
98.8

76.7
92.2

86.9
93.9

5. Average weekly initial claims, State unemployment
insurance
13. New business incorporations1

102.4 105.6

14 Liabilities of business failures
18. Profits per dollar of sales, mfg.2

104 3 111 1111 2 111 8 100 3
96.7
106.1

30 Nonagricultural placements all industries1
33. Net change in mortgage debt held by financial
institutions and life insurance companies 3 . . .

110 7 109 8 101.3

37. Purchased materials, percent of companies
reporting higher inventories
39. Delinquency rate, 30 days and over, total '
installment loans 4

81.1

82.6

95.4

40.

15.

107 9 101 6 100 1 97 5

95 9

87 3

133.

154.

83. Federal cash receipts from the public 5
90. Defense Department obligations, procurement

1897

862. Index of export orders nonelectr ical machinery
D34. Profits, manufacturing (FNCB) ?

157.

74 0

-\~\'-) f.

%

May

92.7

91.5
98.5

79.2

81.2

106.1

104.4

June

105.3

139.0

146.3

86.3

99.3

112.0

91.3
99.8

83.2

96.7

80.2

-96.

309.

88 7

89 8 101 9 106 6 107 7 114 4 107 8 101 6

109.1

91 2 102.0 109 6
97.4

AC.C,

16^

117.2

95.2

82 3

88 2 100 2

78 4
-390.

-336.

109.4

^.Q/^Q
1 3 "n 2181
98 9 98 9 94 0

Apr.

Jan.

98 9 98 8 100 1 99 3 100 0 101 7
94 5 118 3 97 4 104 0 98 7 102 1
-*W3

4431

93 8 199 6

Mar.

Dec.

97.2

98.6

92.3

99 8 100 7
100 3 104 7

112 Change in business loans6
301. Nonagricultural job openings unfilled

114 0 121 6 111 0

•

34.

72. Commercial and industrial loans outstanding
82. Federal cash payments to the public 1

91. Defense Department obligations total
92. Military contract awards in U.S

84.4

Feb.

Nov.

92 6 100.4
-13.

109.5

99 3
94 1

•2964
75 7

93 7 100 4 120 0
106.1

9.

113.1 110 3
25.

92.1

91.9

99 8 101 3
94 4 95 2

153.

99 9 99 $ 100 7
94 0 103 4 105 5

??^ft -1689 1897
67 8 101 1 in^ n QC

/ y qi

"ITI 5

q

?nn i

on n ~\ j c *7
on rt 1 e*n Q
loU.o

on n

Q7 9

Q1

Q

Qn

OC

on n

QJ

n

»7Q rf

1 nn "1
i nn jT
1UU.

1 pipi o
QQ J
QQ O
QQ .Ao QQ
QQ .0
A
i nn o 1 pip, -] yy
yy .yQ
yy
J.UU.,3
1 -i o i iin i i n*5 *5
rtn
O
i on "3 i n/ i i n9 n
Q*5 .Qy rtp, -i
y^j

QQ A

i nn o
T nn o 1UO.<£
i nn *5 XUU.<i
~\ nn A 10U.3
-UJQ.o

01

'/

CtQ

}

1/0 O

1 Q-j

I

no p.

nc q

QQ A

on o itn o

7

yj . D
Q-3

C

T

OD.l

1 pifY

i nn n

QQ

ft

QC

C>

Q J

J

QQ

J

QQ n
+6

QO

A

Q

n f\-\
r
QQ .Tj. 1UJL
yy
*D
1 5

pi

SA n
T n£ Q

QQ 7
no £

y*c .0

pin.0
n l^U.
i on JJ*3
iuy
ys.x i
QC

Q

m .yo

1 /°\ j

o

1U4. _J

i nn j lUU.
i nno 9
T1UJ.1
m T 1UU.4
+1 A
* * *

NOTE: These data are not published by the source agency in seasonally adjusted form. Seasonal adjustments were made by the Bureau of the Census or the National
Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. They are kept current by the Bureau of the Census. Seasonally adjusted data prepared by the source agency will be substituted whenever
they are published. For a description of the method used to compute these factors, see Bureau of the Census Technical Paper No. 15, The X-ll Variant of the Census Method
H Seasonal Adjustment Program.
factors are products of seasonal and trading-day factors. Seasonally adjusted data resulting from the application of these
combined factors may differ slightly from those obtained by separate applications of seasonal and trading-day factors due to
rounding.
2
Quarterly series; figures are placed in middle month of quarter.
3
These quantities, in millions of dollars, are to be subtracted from the month-to-month net change in the unadjusted monthly
totals to yield the seasonally adjusted net change. They were computed by the additive version of the X-ll variant of the Census
Method U seasonal adjustment program.
^Bimonthly series. Data are for even-numbered months (February, April, june; etc.).
-"These quantities, in millions of dollars, are to be subtracted from the original monthly data to yield the monthly seasonally
adjusted
data. They were computed by the additive version of the X-ll variant of the Census Method U seasonal adjustment program.
6
Factors apply to monthly totals before month-to-month changes are computed.
7
l-quarter diffusion index: Figures are placed on the 1st month of the quarter. The unadjusted diffusion index is computed
and the factors, computed by the additive version of the X-ll variant of the Census Method n seasonal adjustment program,, are
subtracted to yield the seasonally adjusted index.

76



Appendix E.-PERCENT CHANGE FOR SELECTED SERIES OVER CONTRACTION AND EXPANSION PERIODS OF BUSINESS CYCLES: 1920 TO 1961
Percent change: Reference peak to reference trough

*41. Employees
in nonagri. establishments

Contractions:
Reference peak to
reference trough

*43. Unemployment rate, total

*47. Index
of industrial
production

*50. GNP
in 1958
dollars
(Q)1

49. GNP
in current
dollars
(Q)1

(NA)
-0.3
+2.3
-28.0
-8.9

-19.7
-2,3
+0.4
-49.6
-11.9

-21.9
0.0
+0.9
-50.8
-10.9

(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)

-4.3
-1.9
0.0
-43.5
-17.3

+7.9

24.0

+2.2
+25.4
+8.8

"3.2
2
1.9
3
0.0
11.2

11,9
?5.5
2
4,1
25,4
20.0

1.1
3.8
2.6
4.2
5,1

3.3
7.9
6.0
7.4
6'. 9

3.5
3.9
4.0

7.2
7.6
7.2

*52. Per- *816. Manufacturing
sonal
and trade
income
sales

*54. Sales
of retail
stores

Change
in rate,
peak to
trough

Jan.
May
Oct.
Aug.
May

1920-JuIy 1921
1923-July 1924
1926-Nov. 1927
1929-Mar. 1933
1937-June 1938

-31.6
-10.4

-31.6
-18.0
-5.9
-51.8
-31.7

Feb
Nov
July
July
May

1945-Oct
1948-Oct
1953-Aug
1957-Apr
1960-Feb

19454
1949
1954 5
1958
1961

-7.9
-5.1
-3.4
-3.9
-1.9

-31.4
-8.5
-9.1
-14.1
-5.7

(NA)
-1.6
-2.2
-3.4
-1.4

-10.9
-3.4
-0.8
-1.8
-0,2

-4.0
-4.7
0.0
+0.2
+0.9

(NA)
-7.5
-7.2
-6.8
-3.1

+8.6
-0.5
-0.5
-2.4
-2.7

+2.2
+4.1
+3.4
+3.2
+1.8

-5.6
-6.5
-3.6

-16.0
-16.0
-8.8

-1.9
-2.1
-1.9

-2.8
-2.8
-1.3

-2.0
-2.4
+0.1

-7.0
-5.8
-7.0

-2,2
-2.6
-1.4

+3.3
+3.6
+3.3

(NA)

(NA

(NA)

Median:6
All contractions
Excluding postwar contractions .
4 contractions since 1948

*41. Employees
in nonagri. establish, ments

*47. Index
of industrial
production

*50. GNP
in 1958
dollars
(Q)1

49. GNP
in current
dollars
(Q) 1

*52. Per- *816. Manufacturing
sonal
and trade
income
sales

2
+2.3
2

3

Rate at
trough

2

*43. Unemployment rate, total

Percent change: Reference trough to reference peak
Expansions:
Reference trough to
reference peak

2

Rate at
peak

*54. Sales
of retail
stores

Change
in rate,
trough
to peak

Rate at
trough

Rate at
peak

%-

w

July
July
Nov.
Mar
June

1921-May
1924-Oct.
1927-Aug.
1933-May
1938-Feb.

1923
1926
1929
1937
19454.

(NA)
(NA)
+40.2
+45.9

+64.2
+30.4
+ 24.1
+119.9
+183.3

(NA)
+12.4
+12.6
+42.1
(NA)

+ 25.1
+14.7
+13.3
+73.9
+169.6

+29.6
+ 13.2
+12.2
+76.3
+157.3

(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)

+15.7
+9.9
+3.6
+69.2
+105.4

-3.6
2
-0.9
-14.2
-18.9

11.9
2
5.5
2
4.1
25.4
20.0

Oct
Oct'
Aug
Apr

1945-Nov
1949-July
1954-July
1958-May

1948
19535.
1957
1960

+17.2
+17.8
+8.9
+6.9

+ 21.9
+50.0
+19.7
+ 25.2

+3.3
+28.8
+11.8
+11.4

+34.9
+44.1
+22.4
+15.1

+28.5
+41.4
+22.1
+13.3

(NA)
+50.0
+22.6
+16.2

+63.8
+ 25.6
+20.3
+11.9

+0.3
-5.3
-1.8
-2.3

3.3
7.9
6.0
7.4

+17.5
+13.0
+13.0

+35.2
+26.6
+ P3.6

+12.3
+12.1
+11.6

+ 27.5
+20.9
+ ?3.fi

+26.7
+21.3
+ ?s ^

+29.6
+19.4
(NA)

+ 20.5
+16.0.

-3.7
-2.6
? n

7.1
6,3

3.3
3.7

A 7

^ Q

•

Median:6
All expansions
Excluding wartime expansions . .
4 exnansions since 1945

+ 9?.n

2
-8.7
2

2

?3.2
2
1.9
3.2
11.2
1.1

2 3

3

3.6
2.6
4.2
5.1

NOTE: For series with a "months for cyclical dominance" (MCQof "1* or "2" (series 41,43,47,52, and 816), the figure for the reference peak (trough) month is used as the
base. For series with an MCD of "3" or more (series 54), the average of the 3 months centered.on the reference peak (trough) month is used as the base. The base
for quarterly series (series 49 and 50) is the reference peak (trough) quarter. See also MCD footnote to appendix C.
*Series included in the 1966 NBER "short list"of 25
indicators.
NA=Not available.
1
The most recent quarterly reference dates are as follows: 2d quarter 1958 (trough); 2d quarter 1960 (peak); and 1st quarter
1961 (trough). For earlier dates, see Business Cycle Indicators (NBER) vol. 1, p.670.
2
Based on average for the calendar year.
3
Differs from figure for same date in expansion (contraction) part of table because of change in series used.
4
World War II contraction or expansion period.
5
Korean War contraction or expansion period.
6
The median is an average of the middle 2 or 3 items,

Source:

National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.




77

Appendix F.-HISTORICAL DATA FOR SELECTED SERIES
Historical data and latest revisions are presented when available. See the Series Finding Guide for the publication date of the latest historical data for each series. Current
data are shown in tables 2 and 4. Data are seasonally adjusted.
Year

Jan.

Feb.

Mar.

Apr.

May

June

July

Aug.

Sept.

Oct.

Nov.

Dec.

9. Construction contracts awarded f or . commercial and industrial buildings, floor space (Mil. sq. f t . )

1948
1949 ....
1950 . . . .
1951 ....
1952 ....
1953 ....

27.99
18.80
17.93
-42.80
16.62
24.17

17.52
17.29
36.59
19.21
28.67

22,51
19.66
23.84
30.42
19.71
24.35

25.63
19.16
27.04
27.22
21.44
26.66

30.12
16.54
28.14
25.27
19.26
29.92

25.08
17.67
27.86
24.71
23.86
19.44

16.22
27.47
22.33
21.61
39.18

22.89
12.56
34.46
22.32
24.16
25.90

23.39
18.95
31.05
25.26
21.34
27.37

23.18
16.90
31.55
19.42
24.32
31.05

1954 ....
1955 ....
1956 ....
1957 ....
1958 . . . .
1959 ....

26.79
32.13
33.99
41.22
31.53
31.93

22.22
35.09
38.65
40.20
29.91
32.16

23.99
32.04
42.51
37.83
29.63
35.11

27.18
31.51
42.21
31.94
26.25
41.92

29.81
31.37
34.17
35.90
28.70
38.55

29.77
34.64
35.68
40.66
25.54
34.19

25.97
37.49
35.31
33.55
30.12
37.64

27.62
35.49
37.06
33.38
34.02
34.14

28.28
40.27
36.81
31.51
30.33
38.38

31.17
34.45
30.90
30.98
33.07
41.44

1960 ....
1961 . . . .
1962 ....

37.32
36.21
38.70
44.61
50.88
52.94

36.93
36.49
42.75

36.73
37.49
45.90
39.42
48.65
54.41

38.73
35.62
42.7?,
40.23
49.12
57.74

40.31
39.25
35.16
36.73
41.16
44.64
47.00 ' ' 51.39
46.86
49.99
57.72
57.52

38.87
36.57
40.56
45.78'
53.40
56.68

39.38
39.32
42.69
4-4.93
49.28
52.00

38.96
38.73
40.96
43.88
51.21
62.97

39.44
33.88
41.08
50.81
53.46
60.55

1963.;..

1964 ....
1965 ....

29.14

45.11
49.10
54.89

31.41

'

20.72
17.82
34.19
16.21
26.95

18.28
18.09
27.93
25.74
34.00
18.45

37.36

26.15

31.62
35.17

31.30

35.91

33.31

32.67
30.76
36.03

32.73
29.06
39.44

39.44

38.15
41.69
41.89

41.61

42.20
43.73
52.57
61.74

45.43

57.91
64.13

10. Contracts and orders for plant and equipment (Bil. dol.)

1948 ....
1949 ....
1950 ....

1.60
1.61
2.72

1952 ....
1953 ....

1.50
1.31
1.60
3.43
2.51
2.84

1.72
1.42
1.60
3.51
2.55
2.88

1.66
1.41
1.74
3.19
2.59
2.64

1.84
1.21
1.74
3.21
2.56
2.88

1.59
1.25
2.16
4.36
2.39
2.76

1.84
1.37
2.09
2.98
2.69
2.16

1.68
1.26
2.53
2.84
2.76
2.66

1.60
1.36
3.20
2.73
2.48
2.23

1.59
1.49
3.01
2.36
3.34
2.57

1.62
1.43
2,71
2.63
2.50
2,72

1954 ....
1955 ....
1956 ....
1957 ....
1958 ....
.1959 ....

2.20
2.50
3.35
3.65
2.77
3.09

2.24
2.72
3.26

3.55
2.67
3.19

1.91
3.15
3.28
3.52
2.66
3.73

1.96
2.93
3.40
3.15
2.69
3.35

2.00
2.80
3.56
3.29
2.72
3.46

2.05
2.99
3.60
3.13
2.85
3.54

2.15
2.97
3.43
3.06
2.75
3.61

2.15
3.15
3.41

2.31
3.33
3.33
2.83

3.22

3.14
3.63

2.43
3.20
3.34
2.89
3.04
3.50

2.89
3.00
3.30

2.40
3.45
3.53
2.74
2.91
3.49

1960 ....
1961 ....
1962 ....
1963 ....
1964 ....
1965 ....

3.27
3.51
3.71

3.35
3.39
3.98
3.82
4.14
4.67

3.27
3.20
3.71
3.75
4.11
4.84

3.52
3.28
3.96
3.98

3.51
3.27
3.76
4.28
4.63
5.02

3.41
3.39
3.66
3.96
4.64
4.81

3.41
3.57
3.72
3.94
4.52
5.16

3.41
3.66
3.61
3.91
4.53
4.90

3.44
3.40
3.56
4.08
4.51
5.15

3.34
3.48
3.66
4.17
4.56
5.13

3.20
3.66
3.82
4.32
4.92
5.05

3.49
3.50
3.99
4.56
4.94
5.35

1951....

3.84
4.38
4.72

4.36
4.98

3.13
3.13

2.63

2.36
2.34

2.25
3.45

3.79

1.59
1.46
3.00
2.83
2.83
2.14

(May 1967)

78



INDEX
SERIES FINDING GUIDE
{PAGE NUMBERS. See table of contents (page i) for chart, table, and appendix titles)

Economic Process Group and Series Title
(See complete titles and sources on back cover)

Charts

Timing
classification

Tables

Appendixes

Issue

I. EMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT

*L
30.
2.
5.
3.
601.
46.

Avg. workweek, production workers, mfg.
Nonagricultural placements, all indus.
Accession rate, manufacturing
Initial claims, State unemploy. insurance
Layoff rate, manufacturing
Nonagri. job openings unfilled
Help-wanted advertising ,

L ...
9
L ...
9
L ...
9
L ...
9
L ...
9
C ... 17
C .,. 17

11.
41.
42.
43.
45.
40.
02.

Man-hours in nonfarm establishments
Employees in nonagri, establishments
Total nonagricultural employment
Unemployment rate, total
Avg. weekly insured unemploy. rate, State
Unemployment rate, married males.
Unemploy. rate, 15 weeks and over

C ...
C ...
C ...
C ...
C.
C ...
Lg...

17
17
17
is

64

66
67

is
22

6
6
6
6
6
7

29
29
29
29
29
34
34
34
34
34
34
34
34
37

70-1
70-1

70-1
70-1
70-1

72
72
72
72
72
72
72

76
76
76

72
72
72
72
72
72
73

77
77

72
66
72
66
72
76
66

Sept. '66
Oct. !631
Sept. '66
July '631
Sept. '66
Apr. '67
Feb. '641

77
72
72
72
66
72
76

Apr. '67
Sept. !66
Feb. '67
Feb. '67
Mar. '641
Feb. '67
Apr. '67

71
72
70
72
72
77
72
72

Aug.
July
Sept.
Aug.
Aug.
Apr.
Aug.
Apr.

74
66
65

June '65
Aug. '631
May '64

78
68
66

May '67
Nov. '64
Dec. '631

II. PRODUCTION, INCOME, CONSUMPTION, AND TRADE

49. GNP in current dollars
50. GNP in 1958 dollars
47. Industrial production

C.
C.
C ...

53.
16,
57.
54.

C.
C ... 19
C ... 19
C ... 19

52. Personal income.

Wages and salaries, mining, mfg., constr.
Manufacturing and trade sales
Final sales
Sales of retail stores

18

66
66

C ... 19

66

35
35
35
35
35
35
35
35

70-1
70-1
70-1
70-1
70-1

73
73
72
72
72
72
73
72

77
77
77
77
77
77

'65
'66
'64
'65
'65
'67
'65
'66

III. FIXED CAPITAL INVESTMENT

38.
13.
*6.
94.
10.
11.
24.

Index of net business formation
New business incorporations
New orders, durable goods industries
Construction contracts, value
Contracts and orders, plant and equipment
New capital appropriations, mfg
New orders, mach. and equip, industries

L
L
L
L
L
L

... 10
... 10
... 10
... 10
... 10
... 11
L ... n

9.
7.
29.
96.
97.
61.
05.

Construction contracts, comm. and indus
Private nonfarm housing starts
New building permits, private housing
Unfilled orders, durable goods industries
Backlog of capita! appropriations, mfg
Bus. expenditures, new plant and equip
Mach. and equip, sales and bus. constr. expend

L ...
L ...
L ...
C ...
C ...
Lg...
Lg..•.

11
n
11
20
20
22
22

L ...
L ...
L ...
L ...
L ...
L ...
L ....
Lg...
Lg...

12
12
12
12
12
13
13
22
22

64

64
67

29
29
30
30
30
30
30
30
30
30
36
36
37
37

70-1
70-1
70-1

70-1
70-1

72
72
72
72
72
73
72

76

72
72
72
72
73
74
73

78
74
74
66
68
65
76

75
75
72
75
72
72
75
73
73

71
72
68
64
65
66
66
73
72

May
July
June
June
Nov.
June
Apr.

'67
'65
'65
'64
'64
' 64
'67

IV. INVENTORIES AND INVENTORY INVESTMENT

21.
31.
37.
20.
26.
32.
25.
71.
65.

Change in business inventories
Change, mfg. and trade inventories
Purchased materials, higher inventories.
Change, mtls. and supplies inventories
Buying policy, production materials.
Vendor performance, slower deliveries
Change in unfilled orders, durable goods
Book value, mfg. and trade inventories
Mfrs.' inventories, finished goods, book value

64

31
31
31
31
31
31
31
37
37

70-1

70-1

76

Aug. '65
Nov. '66
June '631
June '64
June '64
Mar. '641
Dec. '631
Apr. '67
Apr. '67

*Series preceded by an asterisk (*) are on the 1966 NBER "shortlist" 9* 25 indicators,
pleading, Oroughly coincident, Lg = lagging, ^unclassified ("other selected U.S. series" and "international
jmparisons"). 1Appendix G in this issue. 2 A description of this series is contained in the July 1964 issue of BCD (appendix G).




79

SERIES FINDING GUIDE-Continued
(PAGE NUMBERS. See table of contents (page i) for chart, table, and appendix titles)
Charts

Timing
classification

Economic Process Group and Series Title
(See complete titles and sources on back cover)

Appendixes

Tables

Page

Issue

V. PRICES, COSTS, AND PROFITS

*23.
*19.
*16.
22.
18.
*17.
55.
58.
68.
*62.
81.

Industrial materials prices
Stock prices, 500 common stocks
Corporate profits after taxes
Ratio, profits to income originating, corporate
Profits per dollar of sales, mfg
Ratio, price to unit labor cost, mfg
Wholesale price index, industrial commodities.
Wholesale price index, manufactured goods
Labor cost per unit of gross product, nonfin. corporations
Labor cost per unit of output, mfg
Consumer prices

L .,.
L ...
L ...
L ...
L ...
L ...
C ...
C ...
Lg...
Lg...
U ...

13
13
14
14
14
14
20
20
23
23
24

Change, money supply and time deposits
Change, total U.S. money supply
Change, mortgage debt
Change, consumer installment
debt
Change, business loans22
Total private borrowing
Liabilities of business failures.
Delinquency rate, instal. loans, 30 days and over

L
L
L
L
L
L
L
L

...
...
..,
...
...
...
...
•••

15
15
15
15
15
16
16
16

Free reserves
Treasury bill rate 2 . 2
Corporate bond yields2
Treasury bond yields
Municipal bond yields 2
Consumer installment debt
Comm. and indus. loans outstanding
Bank rates on short-term business loans
Mortgage yields, residential 2

C ...
C ...
C ...
C ...
C ...
Lg...
Lg...
Lg...
Lg...

21
21
21
21
21
23
23
23
23

U ...
U ...
U ...
U ...
U...
U ...
U ...

24
24
24
25
25
25
25

U ...
U ...
U ...
U ...
U ...
U•••
U.- •
U -. U ...

26
26
26
26
27
27
27
27
27

U ...
U...
U ...
U ...
U ...
U !!!
U ! ].'

28
28
28
23
28
28
28

65
65

65
67

68

70-:
70-:

32
32
32
32
32
32
36
36
38
38
39

72
72
70-1 73
73
73
70-1 72
72
72
74
70-1 73
73

33
33
33
33
33
33
33
33

76
76
76
76
76
74
73
73

76

66
66
71
74
71
72
73
72
72
72
73

VI. MONEY AND CREDIT

98.
85.
33.
*113.
112.
110.
14.
39.
93.
114.
116.
115.
117.
66.
*72.
*67.
118.

65

67

36
36
36
36
36
38
38
38
38

70-1

70-1
70-1

76
73
73
73
73
74
74
75
74

76
76
76
76

76

73
72
71
71
75
73
66
71
66
71
72
72
72
70
73
70
72

VII. FOREIGN TRADE AND PAYMENTS

89. U.S. balance of payments:
a. Liquidity balance basis
b. Official settlements basis
88. Merchandise trade balance.
86. Exports, excluding military aid
861. Export orders, durable goods, except motor vehicles
862. Export orders, nonelectric machinery
87. General imports

39
39
39
39
39
39
39

76
76
76
74
74
74
74

40
40
40
40
40
40
40
40
40

76
76
74
74
75
74
74
74
74

41
41
41
41
41
41
41

74
74
74
74
74
74
74

76

74
72
74
73
77
78
74

VIII. FEDERAL GOVERNMENT ACTIVITIES

95.
84.
83.
82.
101.
91,
90.
99.
92.

Fed. balance, nat'l. income and prod, account
Federal cash surplus or deficit
Federal cash receipts from public
Federal cash payments to public
National defense purchases, current dollars
Defense Department obligations, total
Defense Dept. obligations, procurement
New orders, defense products
Military contract awards in U.S

68

76
76
76
76
76

72
72
72
72
74
70
70
66
70

IX. INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS

123.
122.
121.
125.
128.
126.
127.

Industrial
Industrial
Industrial
Industrial
Industrial
Industrial
Industrial

production, Canada
production, United Kingdom
production, OECD-Europe
production, West Germany
production, Japan
production, France
production, Italy

.'...!'.
.'

67
67
75
67
68
75
68

*Series preceded by an asterisk (*) are on the 1966 NBER 'shortlist" of 25 indicators.
L = leading, = roughly coincident, Lg = lagging, ^unclassified ("other selected U S series" and "internal
comparisons
jansons ). •'•Appendix G in this issue. ^A descfiption of this series is contained in the July 1964issue
iss of BCD (appendix G).

80



SERIES FINDING GUIDE-Continued
(PAGE NUMBERS. See table of contents (page i) for chart, table, and appendix titles)
Timing
classification

Economic Process Group and Series Title
(See complete titles and sources on back cover)

Tables

Charts

Appendixes
F

1

2

1

3

2

4

5

48
48
49
49
• 43
48

52-3
52-3
61
61
52-5
52-5

B

D

C

E

Page

Issue

DIFFUSION INDEXES

Dl. Average workweek

D6 New orders
11. Capital appropriations
19. Stock prices
n. Industrial materials prices
34
35.
36
41.

Profits mfg
Net sales, mfrs
New orders
Employees in nonagrL establishments

M . Industrial production
54 Retail sales
58. Wholesale prices, mfg
61. New plant and equipment expenditures




1-month
9-month
9-month. .
l-mnnth
9-month. .

45
45
45
45
45
45

l-quarter
3-quarter. .
1-month
9-month. .
1-month. .
9-month. .

45
45
45
45
45
45

1-month
6-month . .
1-month
6-month . .
1-month
9-month..
1-month
6-month. .

45
47
47
46
46
46
46
47
46
46
46
46
47

-

48
48
62
49
62
49
49 54-5
49 54-5
49
5.1
51
50 56-9
50 56-9
50 58-9
50 58-9
51
50 54-7
50 54-7
50 58-61
50 58-61
51

-

-

76

73
73
73
73
72
69

Sept.
Sept.
May
May
Apr.
Oct.

'66
'66
'65
'65
'65
'64

73
73
72
69
72
73

Feb.
Feb.
Apr.
Oct.
Apr.
Feb.

'65
'65
'65
'64
'65
'65

69
70
70
73
73
73
70
68-9
73
70
78
78
69

Oct.
Nov.
Nov.
Sept.
Sept.
Apr.
Oct.
Nov.
Apr.
Oct.
Apr.
Apr.
Nov.

'64
'64
'64
'66
'66
'65
'64
!
64
'65
'64
'67
'67
'64

81

Listings of—
Reports and special compendia
presenting data from current surveys
and census programs
Machine-readable data from computer tape files, punchcard decks,
A guide book to and special tabulations
Selected publications from other
CENSUS
published and government agencies and from the
Congress
r1 A T» A T f\f^
unpublished
Papers and articles prepared by
Census Bureau staff
L< A 1 AljUvr
statistics
Issued quarterly and cumulated to the annual issue, with monthly supplements




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Titles and Sources of Principal B u s i n e s s Cycle Series ond Diffusion Indexes
The numbers assigned to the series are for identification purposes only and do not reflect
series relationships or order. "M" indicates monthly series; "Q" indicates quarterly series.
Data apply to the whole period except for series designated by "EOM" (end of the month) or
"EOQ" (end of the quarter). The Roman numeral identifies the economic process group in which

36 NBER LEADING INDICATORS
*1.

a series is classified. (See Finding Guide.) Thus, "(M, II)" indicates amonthly series classified
in group II. The general classification follows the approach of the National Bureau of Economic
Research, Inc. The series preceded by an asterisk (*} are included in the 1966 NBER "short
list" of 25 indicators.
37. Percent reporting higher inventories, purchased materials (M,lV).-National Association Of

Purchasing Agents; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census

Average workweek of production workers, manufacturing (M,I).-Department Of LsbOf, Bur63U

of Labor Statistics
2. Accession rate, manufacturing (M,l).~Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics
3. Layoff rate, manufacturing (M,l).--Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics

*38. index of net business formation (M,ill).-.Dun and Bradstreet, Inc., and Department of
Commerce, Bureau of the Census; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census and
National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
39. Percent of consumer installment loans delinquent 30 days ond over (EOM,VI).--Americar]

Bankers Association; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census and National Bureau
of Economic Research, Inc. (Bimonthly since December 1964)

5. Average weekly initial claims for unemployment insurance, State programs (M,I).--Department of Labor, Bureau of Employment Security; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the

Census

85. Percent change in total U-S. money supply (demand deposits plus currency) (M,VI).-^Board

*6, Volue of manufacturers'

new orders,

of Governors of the Federal Reserve System

durable goods industries (M,lll)."Department Of

Commerce, Bureau of the Census

94- Index of construction controcts, total value (M,III),«F.W. Dodge Corporation

7. New private nonfarm housing units started (M,lll),--Department of Commerce, Bureau of the

Census

98. Percent change in total U.S. money supply (demand deposits and currency) and commercial

bank time deposits (M,vi).--Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System

9, Construction contracts awarded for commercial and industrial buildings, floor space (M,lll).-

FJ. Dodge Corporation; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census and National
Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
*10.

Contracts and orders for plant and equipment (M,lll).--Department Of Commerce, Bureau Of

the Census, and F.W. .Dodge Corporation; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census
and National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
11. Newly

approved capital appropriations, 1,000 manufacturing corporations {Q,III).--NatJOn3l

110.

Total funds raised by private nonfinancial

112. Net change in bank loans to businesses (M,vl).«Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve
System; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census
*113.

Net change in consumer installment debt (M,VI).--Boafd of Governors Of the Federal Reserve

System

Industrial Conference Board; component industries are seasonally adjusted and added to
obtain seasonally adjusted total
13. Number of new business incorporations (M,lll)s--Dun and Bradstreet, Inc.; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census and National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

borrowers in credit markets (Q,V1).—Board Of

Governors of the Federal Reserve System

25 NBER ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
40. Unemployment rate, married males, spouse present (M,I),—Department Of Labor,

Bureau Ol

Labor Statistics, and Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
Ml. Number of employees in nonagricultural establishments (M,I).-Department of Labor, BUT63U

14. Current liabilities of business failures (M,vi).--Dun and Bradstreet, Inc.; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census and National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

of Labor Statistics
42. Total nonagricultural employment, labor force survey (M,I).-Department Of Labor, Bureau Of

*16. Corporate profits after taxes(Q,v).-Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
*17. Price per unit of tabor cost index-ratio, wholesale prices of manufactured goods index
(unadjusted) to seasonally adjusted index of compensation of employees (sum of wages,
salaries, and supplements to wages and salaries) per unit of output (M,V).—Department

of Commerce, Office of Business Economics; Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor
Statistics; and Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
18. Profits (before taxes) per dollar of sales, all manufacturing corporations (Q,V).~Federal

Trade Commission and Securities and Exchange Commission; seasonal adjustment by
Bureau of the Census
*19. Index of stock prices, 500 common stocks (M,v).--Standard and Poor's Corporation; no
seasonal adjustment
20. Change in book value of manufacturers' inventories of materials and supplies (M,IV).--

Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
21° Change in business inventories, farm and nonfarm, after valuation adjustment (GNP component) (Q,iv),--Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics

ment of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
*23> Index of industrial materials prices {M,V).--Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics;
no seasonal adjustment
and equipment industries

*43- Unemployment rate, total (M,l).»Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor
Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census

Statistics, and

45. Average weekly insured unemployment rate. State programs (M,I).-Department Of LabOT,

Bureau of Employment Security
46. Index of help-wanted advertising in newspapers (M,l).«National Industrial

Conference

Board
*47. Index of industrial production (M,ll).--Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
49. Gross national product in current dollars (Q,ll)."Department Of

Commerce, Office Of

Business Economics
*50. Gross national product in 1958 dollars (Q,ll)."Department of Commerce, Office of Business
Economics
*52. Personal income (M,ll).--Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics

22. Ratio of profits (after taxes) to income originating, corporate, all industries (Q,V).--Depart-

24. Value of manufacturers' new orders, machinery

Labor Statistics, and Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census

53. Wage and salary income in mining, manufacturing,

and construction (M,M).—Department Of

Commerce, Office of Business Economics
*54. Sales of retail stores (M,N).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
55. index of wholesale prices, industrial commodities (M,v).-Department of Labor, Bureanof LaborStatistics; no seasonal adjustment

(M,|ll)o--Dep3rt-

ment of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
25. Change in manufacturers' unfilled orders, durable goods industries (M,IV).-Department Of

Commerce, Bureau of the Census

57. Final sales (series 49 minus series 21) (Q,ll).«Department of Commerce, Office of Business
Economics
58. Index of wholesale prices, manufactured goods (M,V).--Department Of Labor,

Bureau Of

Labor Statistics; no seasonal adjustment
26. Buying policy-production materials, percent reporting commitments 60 days or

longer

(M,lv).«National Association of Purchasing Agents; no seasonal adjustment

93. Free reserves (member bank excess reserves minus borrowings) (M,VI).-Board Of GOV6WOrS

of the Federal Reserve System; no seasonal adjustment

*29. Index of new private housing units authorized by local building permits (M,111).-Department

of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
*30. Nonagricultural placements, all industries (M,l)..-Department of Labor, Bureau of Employment Security; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census
*31. Change in book value of manufacturing and trade inventories, total (M,IV).-Department Of

Commerce, Office of Business Economics, and Bureau of the Census

96. Manufacturers'

Association; no seasonal adjustment
33. Net change

in mortgage debt held by financial institutions and life insurance companies

(M,vi).--lnstitute of Life Insurance, Federal National Mortgage Association,
National
Association of Mutual Savings Banks, U.S. Savings and Loan League, ana Board, of
Governors of the Federal Reserve System; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census
and National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.




orders,

97, Backlog of capital appropriations,

durable

goods

industries

(EOM,III).--Department of

manufacturing (EOQ,lll).--National Industrial Conference

Board; component industries are seasonally adjusted and added to obtain seasonally
adjusted total
114. Discount

32. Vendor performance, percent reporting slower deliveries (M,lV).--ChicagO Purchasing Agents

unfilled

Commerce, Bureau of the Census

rate on new issues of 91-day

Treasury

bills {M,VI).-Board Of Governors Of the

Federal Reserve System; no seasonal adjustment
115. Yield on long-term Treasury bonds (M,vi).-Treasury Department; no seasonal adjustment
116. Yield on new issues of high-grade corporate bonds (W,VI).-First National

City Bank Of

New York and Treasury Department; no seasonal adjustment
117. Yield on municipal bonds, 20-bond average (M,vi).»The Bond Buyer;no seasonal adjustment
Continued on reverse

UNITED STATES
GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE

POSTAGE AND FEES P A I D
U.S. GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE

DIVISION OF PUBLIC DOCUMENTS
WASHINGTON, D.C. 20402
OFFICIAL BUSINESS
FIRST CLASS MAIL

Titles and Sources of Principal Business Cycle Series and Diffusion Indexes—Continued
16 OTHER SELECTED U.S. SERIES-Continued

25 NBER ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS-Continued
301. Nonagricultural job openings unfilled (EOM, I).--Department of Labor,Bureau of Employment
Security; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census

87. General imports, total (M,vil).--Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
88. Merchandise trade balance (series 86 minus series 87} (M,VII).--Department Of Commerce,

Bureau of the Census

511. Man-hours in nonfarm establishments, all industries (M,I).--Department of Labor, Bureau Of

Labor Statistics

89. Excess of receipts or payments in U.S. balance of payments

(Q,VII) 0 --Department Of

Commerce, Office of Business Economics

*816- Monufocturing and trade sales (M,ll).--Departmen®0f Commerce, Office of Business Economics and Bureau of the Census

90. Defense Department obligations, procurement (M,VIII).--Department

Of Defense,

FJSCal

Analysis Division; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census
91. Defense Department obligations, total (M,Vlll).--Department of Defense, Fiscal Analysis
Division; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census

11 NBER LAGGING INDICATORS
*61. Business expenditures on new plant and equipment, total (Q,til).--Department of Commerce,

92. Military prime contract awards to U.S. business firms {M,VIU).--Department Of Defense,

Directorate for Statistical Services; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census

Office of Business Economics, and the Securities and Exchange Commission
*62. Index of labor cost per unit of output, total manufacturing-ratio, index of compensation of
employees in manufacturing (the sum of wages and salaries and supplements to wages
and salaries) to index of industrial production, manufacturing (M,V).»Department of

Commerce, Office of Business Economics, and the Board of Governors
Reserve System

of the Federal

95. Surplus or deficit, notional income and product account (Q,Vlll).--Department Of Commerce,

Office of Business Economics
99. New orders, defense products (M, vil).--Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
101. Federal purchases of goods and services,

(EOM,lv).--Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census

861.

66. Consumer installment debt (EOM,Vl).--Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.
FRS seasonally adjusted net change added to seasonally adjusted figure for previous
month to obtain current figure
*67.

national defense (Q,VIII).--DepartfTieilt Of

Commerce, Office of Business Economics

65. Book value of manufacturers' inventories of finished goods, all manufacturing industries

Manufacturers' new

orders for export, durable goods except motor vehicles and parts

(M,vil).--Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census; no seasonal adjustment
862.

Index of export orders for nonelectrical

machinery (M, VH).--McGraW-Hill, Department Of

Economics; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census

Bonk rates on short-term business loans, 19 cities (EOQ,VI).-Board Of Governors Of the

7 INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS

Federal Reserve System; no seasonal adjustment
68. Loborcost (current dollars) perunitof gross product (1958 dollars), nonfinancial corporations
(ratio of current-dollar compensation of employees to gross corporate product in!958 dollars)

121. Organization

for Economic Cooperation

and Development,

European Countries, index of

industrial production (M,tx).--0rganization for Economic Cooperation and Development

(Q,V).-- Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics, National Income Division
*71» Book value, manufacturing and trade inventories, total (EOM,IV),--Department Of Commerce,

Office of Business Economics and Bureau of the Census
*72. Commercial

and industrial

122.

United Kingdom, index of industrial production{M,IX).--Central Statistical Office (London)

123.

Canada, index of industrial production (M,IX).-Dominion Bureau Of Statistics (Ottawa)

125. West Germany, index of industrial production (M,IX).-StatJStiSCheS Bundesamt (Wiesbaden);

seasonally adjusted by OECD

loans outstanding, weekly reporting large commercial banks

<EOM,vD--Boardof Governors of the Federal Reserve System; seasonal adjustment by
Bureau of the Census and National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
118. Secondary market yields on FHA mortgages (M,vi).--Federal Housing Administration; no
seasonal adjustment
*502. Unemployment rate, 15 weeks and over (M,i).--Department
Statistics

of

Labor, Bureau of Labor

126. France, index of industrial production {M,IX).-IflStltut National de la StatJStique et des

Etudes Economiques (Paris)
127. Italy, index of industrial production (M,IX).--IStltUtO Cciltrale di StatJStica (Rome)

128. Japan, index of industrial production (M,ix).--Ministry of International Trade and Industry
(Tokyo)
. . .

505.

United States, index of industrial production (M,ll).--See Series 47.

Manufacturers' machinery and equipment sales and business construction expenditures
(industrial, commercial, and public utility construction put in place) (M,III).--Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census

16 OTHER SELECTED U.S. SERIES
81. Index of consumer prices (M,v).--Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics; no
seasonal adjustment

DIFFUSION INDEXES

82. Federal cash payments to the public (M,vill)---Treasury Department, Bureau of Accounts,
and Executive Office of the President, Bureau of the Budget; seasonal adjustment by the
Bureau of the Census

The "D" preceding a number indicates a diffusion index. Diffusion indexes and corresponding
business cycle series bear the same number and are obtained from the same sources. See
sources above for Dl, D5, 06, Dll, D19, D23, D41, D47, D54, D58, and D61. Sources for other
diffusion indexes are as follows:

83. Federol cosh receipts from the public(Q,M,Vlll).~Treasury Department, Bureau of Accounts,
and Executive Office of the President, Bureau of the Budget; seasonal adjustment by the
Bureau of the Census
84. Federal cash surplus or deficit (Q,M,VHl).--Treasury Department, Bureau of Accounts, and
Executive Office of the President, Bureau of the Budget; seasonal adjustment by the
Bureau of the Census
86. Exports, excluding military aid shipments, total {M,vil).--Department of Commerce, Bureau
of the Census




D34. Profits, manufacturing, FNCB (Q),--First National City Bank of New York; no seasonal
adjustment of series components. Diffusion indexes are seasonally adjusted by Bureau
of the Census and National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
D35. Net soles, total manufactures (Q).--Dun and Bradstreet, Inc.; no seasonal adjustment
D36, New orders, durable manufactures (Q).--Dun and Bradstreet, Inc.; no seasonal adjustment
D48. Freight corloodings (Q) e --Association of American Railroads; no seasonal adjustment