Full text of Business Conditions Digest : May 1967
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bed DEVELOPMENTS May 1967 DATA THROUGH APRIL DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE BUREAU OF THE CENSUS This report was prepared in the Economic Research and Analysis Division under the direction of Juiius Shiskin Chief, Technical staff and their responsibilities for th^ piiblication are— > . Feliks Tamm~*Technical supervision' and review, Barry A. Beckman—Specifications' for computer processing, John C. (Vlusgrave-—New projects, Morton Somer—Selection of seasonal adjustment methods, fietty F. Tunstalt—Collection and compilation of basic data. n Editorial supervision is provided by Geraldine Censky of the Administrative and Publications Services Division. Stuart I. Freeman is responsible for publication design, The cooperation of various 'government and private agencies which provide data is gratefully acknowledged. The agencies furnishing data are indicated in the list of series and sources on the back cover of this report U.S. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE Alexander B. Trowbridge, Acting Secretary William H. Shaw, Asst. Secy., Economic Affairs BUREAU OF THE CENSUS A. Ross Eckler, Director Howard C. Grieves, Deputy Director Morris H. Hansen, Asst. Director for Research and Development JULIUS SHISKIN, Chief Economic Statistician Subscription price is $7 a year ($U5 additional for foreign mailing). Single issues are 60 cents, > Airmail delivery is available at an additional charge. For information about domestic pr foreign airmail delivery, write to the Superintendent of Documents (address below), enclosing a copy of your address label, Make checks payable to the Superintendent of ppcuments, $$nd ^ ^g. Government Printing Office, Washington, D.C. 20402, or to any U.S. Department of Commerce Field Office. ABOUT THE COVER—Series in this publication are grouped according to their usual timing and shown against the background of contractions and expansions in general business activity. The center panel illustrates this concept. The vertical bar represents a contraction; the top curve, the Leading Series Which usually fall before a contraction has begun and rise before it has ended; the middle curve, the Coincident Series which usually fall with the contraction period; the bottom curve, the Lagging Series which fall after a contraction has begun and rise after it ends, Series are also classified by economic process within each timing group. Processes are1 indicated in the1 squares bordering the panel , PREFACE This report brings together many of the available economic indicators in convenient form for analysis and interpretation. The presentation and classification of series follow the business indicators approach. The list of indicators and their classification into ''leading," "roughly coincident," and "lagging" groups are those designated by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), a private, nonprofit research organization which has been preparing lists of business cycle indicators for more than 40 years. The business cycle turning dates are also those designated by NBER. In addition, all series within each timing group are classified under eight economic processes (e.g., employment and unemployment; production, income, consumption, and trade; fixed capital investment; etc.). Some special series included in the list (such as labor costs in manufacturing and the total of machinery and equipment sales and business construction) have been constructed by the NBER for purposes of business cycle analysis. The utilization of the National Bureau list of indicators and their cyclical turning dates is not to be taken as implying acceptance or endorsement by the Bureau of the Census or any other government agency of any approach to business- cycle analysis, nor of the special series compiled by the National Bureau to facilitate cyclical studies. This report is intended only to supplement other Department of Commerce reports that provide information so arranged as to facilitate the analysis of current business conditions. The unique features of BCD are the arrangement of data according to their usual timing relations during the course of the business cycle, the cross-classification by timing and economic process, and the inclusion of special analytical measures and historical cyclical comparisons that help in evaluating the current state of the business cycle. In addition, the movements of the series are shown against the background of the expansions and contractions of the general business cycle so that "leads" and "lags" can be readily detected and unusual cyclical developments spotted. About 90 principal series and over 300 components are used in preparing BCD. Almost all of the basic data have been published by the source agency. A complete list of series titles and the sources of data is shown on the back cover of this report. May 1967 DATA THROUGH APRIL DEVELOPMENTS CONTENTS Cross-Classification of Business Indicators by Economic Process and Cyclical Timing . Background Materials New Features and Changes for This Issue 3 Census Projects on Economic Fluctuations iii iv v vi Descriptions and Procedures Introduction : Timing Classification Economic Process Classification "Short List" of Indicators Method of Presentation Concepts and Procedures References How to Read Charts 1 and 2 , 1 1 2 2 2 2 2 4 Section One—Basic Data Table 1. Changes Over 4 Latest Months Chart 1. Business Cycle Series From 1948 to Present Table 2. Latest Data for Business Cycle Series , 6 9 29 Section Two—Analytical Measures Table Chart Table Table 3. 2. 4. 5. Distribution of "Highs" for Current and Comparative Periods Diffusion Indexes From 1948 to Present Latest Data for Diffusion Indexes Selected Diffusion Indexes and Components 44 45 48 52 Section Three—Cyclical Comparisons Chart 3. Comparisons of Reference Cycles 64 CONTENTS Continued Appendixes Appendix A. Business Cycle Expansions and Contractions in the United States: 1854 to 1961 „ Appendix B. Specific Trough and Peak Dates for Selected Business Indicators _ Appendix C. Average Changes and Related Measures for Business Cycle Series Appendix D. Current Adjustment Factors for Business Cycle Series Appendix E. Percent Change for Selected Series Over Contraction and Expansion Periods of Business Cycles: 1920 to 1961 _ _ _ Appendix F. Historical Data for Selected Series 69 70 72 76 77 78 Index Series Finding Guide ^ 79 Cross-Classification of Business Indicators by Economic Process and Cyclical Timing (Minor economic processes and the number of series in each process are shown for each classification. See the index and back cover for series titles) ^\. Cyclical ^\^ Timing Economic ^\^ Process ^N. . 1. EMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT (14 series) NBER LEADING INDICATORS (36 series) NBER ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS NBER LAGGING INDICATORS (11 series) OTHER SELECTED U.S. SERIF.S (16 series) (25 series) Marginal employment adjustments (5 series) Job vacancies (2 series) Comprehensive employment (3 series) Comprehensive unemployment (3 series) Long-duration unemployment (1 series) Comprehensive production (3 series) Comprehensive income (2 series) Comprehensive consumption and trade (3 series) II. PRODUCTION, INCOME, CONSUMPTION, AND TRADE (8 series) III. FIXED CAPITAL INVESTMENT (14 series) Formation of business enterprises (2 series) New investment commitments (8 series) IV. INVENTORIES AND INVENTORY INVESTMENT inventory investment and purchasing (7 series) Backlog of investment commitments (2 series) Investment expenditures (2 series) Inventories (2 series) (9 series) V. PRICES, COSTS, AND PROFITS (11 series) VI. MONEY AND CREDIT (17 series) Sensitive commodity prices (1 series) Stock prices (i series) Profits and profit margins (4 series) Comprehensive wholesale prices (2 series) Unit labor costs (2 series) Flows of money and credit (6 series) Credit difficulties (2 series) Bank reserves (1 series) Money market interest rates (4 series) Outstanding debt (2 series) Interest rates on business loans and mortgages (2 series) VII. FOREIGN TRADE AND PAYMENTS (6 series) Foreign trade and payments (6 series) VIII. FEDERAL GOVERNMENT ACTIVITIES Federal Government activities (9 series) (9 series) Comprehensive retail prices (1 series) 111 BACKGROUND MATERIALS 3. A short list of 25 indicators, drawn from the full list, is identified throughout BCD. This more selective list includes 12 leading, 7 roughly coincident, and 6 lagging series; 21 are monthly and 4 are quarterly. The short list involves little of the duplication in economic coverage that is provided, for various reasons, in the full list. The series on the short list are identified by asterisks. Changes in the 1966 list of indicators are as follows (series identification number and title): A revised list of indicators was introduced in the April issue of BUSINESS CYCLE DEVELOPMENTS. Research work for the revised list was carried out by the National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. (NBER), a private, nonprofit research organization which has been preparing lists of economic indicators and research reports in the field of business cycle analysis for more than 40 years. This revised list was published by the National Bureau in March 1967, and is the result of a periodic review made by that agency of its previous list of indicators of aggregate economic activity. This is the third revision of the list originally published by the National Bureau in 1938. The method of preparing the new list, the reasons for. adding certain series and dropping others, and an explanation of the classification system used are described in a new report, INDICATORS OF BUSINESS EXPANSIONS AND CONTRACTIONS, published by the National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc., 261 Madison Avenue, New York, N.Y., 10016. Other reports on the historical studies and methods of making current interpretations of the indicators are listed in this book. The revised list includes some new series, discontinues some of those on the* previous list, and has assigned timing classifications to some series previously unclassified by timing. The chief features of the new list follow: 1. The major principle of classification is a fourfold grouping by cyclical timing: Leading, roughly coincident, and lagging indicators, and other selected series. The first three categories take into account timing at both peaks and troughs; the fourth group includes economic activities that have an important role in business cycles but have displayed a less regular relation to them. The new list of indicators includes 36 leading series, 25 roughly coincident series, 11 lagging series, and 16 series unclassified by timing—88 series in all; 72 are monthly and 16 are quarterly. This list includes 13 series not on the previous NBER list and omits 5 series. In addition, 14 series previously unclassified by timing are assigned a timing classification. 2. The type of economic process represented by the series is used as a secondary principle of classification, with emphasis on the processes that are important for business cycle analysis. The 88 U.S. series are classified into eight major groups: (I) Employment and Unemployment, 14 series; (II) Production, Income, Consumption, and Trade, 8 series; (III) Fixed Capital Investment, 14 series; (IV) Inventories and Inventory Investment, 9 series; (V) Prices, Costs, and Profits, 11 series; (VI) Money and Credit, 17 series; (VII) Foreign Trade and Payments, 6 series; and (VIII) Federal Government Activities, 9 series. Each of these major categories is subdivided into economic processes that exhibit rather distinct differences in cyclical timing. For example, under Fixed Capital Investment, new investment commitments are distinguished from investment expenditures. A ninth group on economic activity in other countries (7 series) is also provided. 13 series new to the 1966 list: 33. Net change in mortgage debt held by financial institutions and life insurance companies 39. Delinquency rate, 30 days and over, total installment loans 58, Index of wholesale prices, manufactured goods *71. Manufacturing and trade inventories, book value *72. Commercial and industrial loans outstanding, weekly reporting large commercial banks 101. National defense purchases 301, Nonagricultural job openings unfilled *502. Unemployment rate, persons unemployed 15 weeks and over 505. Machinery and equipment sales and business construction expenditures 511. Man-hours in nonfarm establishments *816. Manufacturing and trade sales 861. Manufacturers' new orders for export, durable goods except motor vehicle and parts 862. Index of export orders, nonelectrical machinery 5 series on the previous list but omitted from the 1966 list: 4. Number of persons on temporary layoff, all industries 15. Number of business failures with liabilities of $100,000 and over *51. Bank debits, all standard metropolitan statistical areas except New York *64. Manufacturers* inventories, book value 111. Corporate gross savings 10 series specially constructed for business cycle studies at the suggestion of the NBER: *10, Contracts and orders for plant and equipment *17. Ratio, price to unit labor cost, manufacturing 22. Ratio of profits to income originating, corporate, all industries 33. Net change in mortgage debt held by financial institutions and life insurance companies *38. Index of net business formation 53. Wages and salaries in mining, manufacturing, and construction *62. 'Index of labor cost per unit of output, manufacturing 68. Index of labor cost per dollar of real corporate GNP 505. Machinery and equipment sales and business construction expenditures 511. Man-hours in nonfarm establishments *Denotes series included on "short list." IV ffl A limited number of changes are made from time to time to reflect the change from one stage of the business cycle to another, to show new findings of business cycle research and newly available economic series, or to emphasize the activity of a particular series or series group. Such changes may involve additions or deletions of series used, changes in placement in relation to other series, changes in components of indexes, etc. ;:lL ;•§&!» i Changes in this issue are as follows: 1. The series on backlog of capital appropriations r^;-^Mj^» in manufacturing (series 97) has been revised backward from a new benchmark at the beginning of 1967 by the source agency. Revisions are shown in this issue beginning with the 1st quarter 1965. Revised figures for the earlier period will be shown in a subsequent issue. Information concerning this revision may be obtained from the National Industrial Conference Board, 845 Third Avenue, New York, N.Y., 10005. 2. Appendix F includes historical data for series 9 and 10. The June issue of BUSINESS CYCLE DEVELOPMENTS scheduled for release on June 27. ?vv^4p$ ^^^s^'j&swm jgj^vV |V^^:-^-'-^ > - CENSUS METHOD II ADJUSTMENT PROGRAM. A time series computer program for measuring and analyzing seasonal, trading-day, cyclical, and irregular fluctuations and the relations among them. This program is particularly useful in analyzing economic fluctuations which take place within a year. '* ' * " ' * '" K $$?^£%M. &; ,*VKV «>'*£.***£•-<•.,; v- . :-,/•-•. - \ . •* 'i • - r 1 * . •: The latest variant, X - l l , has greater generality and scope than any of the earlier programs. It can adjust quarterly as well as monthly series and series with negative and positive numbers as well as those with positive numbers alone. The X-ll version measures and adjusts not only for seasonal variations, but also for trading-day variations. Further, it computes many summary and analytical measures of the behavior of each series. The program includes various techniques, such as F tests and variance analysis, for use in extending the scope of time series studies and is written in a simplified computer language—Fortran IV, The program deck can be purchased from the Census Bureau at cost. BUSINESS CYCLE DEVELOPMENTS. A monthly report for analyzing economic fluctuations over a short span of years. This report brings together several hundred monthly and quarterly "economic indicator" series for the analysis of short-term economic trends and prospects. These series have been selected, tested, and evaluated, after half a century of continuing research, as the most useful and reliable for this purpose. The publication provides not only the basic data, but also various charts and analytical tables to facilitate such studies. In addition, a time series punch-card file, a diffusion index program, and a separate summarymeasures computer program are available for those who wish to carry on further research in business cycle analysis. LONG TERM ECONOMIC GROWTH. An annual report for the study of economic fluctuations over a long span of years. This report has been developed from available statistics to provide a comprehensive, long-range view of the U.S. economy. It has been planned, prepared, and published as a basic research document for economists, historians, investors, teachers, and students. It brings together for the first time under one cover, in meaningful and convenient form, the complete statistical basis for a study of long-term economic trends. It is a unique presentation of the full range of factors required for an understanding of our country's economic development. Some of the statistical series go back to 1860. A punchcard file of the time series included in the report is available for purchase. DE The business cycle is generally described as consisting of alternating periods of expansion and contraction in aggregate economic activity—that is, the complex of activities represented by such concepts as total production, employment, income, consumption, trade, and the flow of funds. Although a recurrent pattern has been characteristic of American economic history, many economists do not consider it inevitable. The causal relations among various economic processes are primarily responsible for the cumulative nature of cyclical forces and explain why expansions have eventually turned into recessions and recessions into expansions. Cyclical fluctuations in production and employment are preceded by fluctuations in measures which relate to future rather than current production—measures such as new orders for durable goods, formation of new business enterprises, and accessions to payrolls. They are followed by fluctuations in various economic costs, such as labor costs, interest rates, fulfillment of long-term commitments, and holdings of inventories and debts. TIMING CLASSIFICATION On the basis of many years of research, the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) has compiled a list of indicators of aggregate economic activity and has classified these indicators according to whether they usually lead, roughly coincide with, or lag behind the cyclical movements in aggregate activity. The 1966 list, as issued by the NBER, is the basis for the presentation of U.S. series in BUSINESS CYCLE DEVELOPMENTS. Prior to April 1967, their 1960 list was used. The series have been grouped and classified by the NBER as "leading," "roughly coincident," or "lag- ging" indicators, These indicators are described as follows: NBER Leading Indicators.—Series that usually reach peaks or troughs before those in aggregate economic activity as measured by the roughly coincident series (see below). One group of these series pertains to orders and contracts, another to inventory investment, and so on. NBER Roughly Coincident Indicators.—Series that are direct measures of aggregate economic activity or move roughly together with it; for example, nonagricultural employment, industrial production, and retail sales. NBER Lagging Indicators.—Series, such as new plant and equipment expenditures and manufacturers' inventories, that usually reach turning points after they are reached in aggregate economic activity. Also included in BCD are (a) "Other selected U.S. series," economic activities which are important in analyzing business cycles but have a less consistent relation to them, and (b) industrial production indexes for several countries which have important trade relations with the United States. The business cycle turning dates used in this report are those designated by the NBER. They mark the approximate dates when aggregate economic activity reached its cyclical high (peak) or low (trough) levels. As a matter of general practice, a business cycle turning date will not be designated until at least 6 months after it has occurred. (See appendix A for peak and trough dates.) ECONOMIC PROCESS CLASSIFICATION A secondary principle of classification, economic process, supplements the timing classification. All series are cross-classified according to these two prinicples, The major economic process categories are employment and unemployment; production, income, consumption, and trade; fixed capital investment; inventories and inventory investment; prices, costs, and profits; money and credit; foreign trade and payments; and Federal Government activity. "SHORT LIST'1 OF INDICATORS A short, substantially unduplicated list of principal indicators provides a convenient way of summarizing the current situation and outlook. The NBER has identified, for this purpose, a short list of 25. This list includes 12 leading, 7 roughly coincident, and 6 lagging indicators; 21 are monthly and 4 are quarterly. These series are identified throughout BCD. METHOD OF PRESENTATION This report consists of three major sections as follows: Basic Data (chart 1, tables 1 and 2).—Data for all series are shown for the current and prior periods in both graphic and tabular form. Thus, a broad view of past and current business cycle fluctuations is provided. Analytical Measures (chart 2, tables 3 to 5).—Measures are presented which help to determine the magnitude and scope of current changes in different processes, industries, and areas, and aid in evaluating the prospects of a turning point in the business cycle. Cyclical Patterns (chart 3).—Comparisons are made between current cyclical levels and previous business cycles. A list of titles and sources for all series is shown on the back cover of this report. The series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. CONCEPTS AND PROCEDURES Several other concepts and procedures used in this report are summarized below: Adjustments for average seasonal fluctuations are often necessary to bring out the underlying cyclical trends of a series. In most cases, the seasonally ad- justed data used for a series are the official figures released by the source agency. In addition, for the special purposes of business cycle studies, a number of series that are not ordinarily published in seasonally adjusted form are shown on a seasonally adjusted basis in this report. The seasonal adjustment process usually accounts for variations due to holidays; however, there are some cases in which a separate holiday adjustment is needed for holidays with variable dates. Months for cyclical dominance (MCD) is an estimate of the appropriate span over which to observe the cyclical movements in a monthly series. MCD moving averages are shown in chart 1 for series with an MCD of "5" or more; however, to provide an indication of the variation about these moving averages, monthly data are also plotted. Diffusion indexes are simple summary measures which express what percentage of the components of an aggregate series has risen over given time spans. Their turning points tend to lead those of the aggregate. Series numbers preceded by "D" designate diffusion indexes. Many of the component series used to make up the diffusion indexes are shown in table 5. During the current expansion, high values for the indicators are identified in table 2. These values are not necessarily cyclical peak values, but are simply the highest values reached to date. Certain appendix materials are presented regularly in this report. These materials include historical data, adjustment factors, peak and trough dates, and other information helpful in interpreting trends in the indicators. REFERENCES Fuller explanations of the use of indicators of aggregate economic activity in analyzing current business conditions and prospects may be found in the following references: (1) Alexander, Sidney S. "Rate of Change Approaches to Forecasting—Diffusion Indexes and First Differences," The Economic Journal, June 1958, pp. 288-301. (2) Broida, Arthur L. "Diffusion Indexes," American Statistician vol. IX, No. 2 (June 1955), pp. 7-16, (3) Burns, Arthur F. and Mitchell, Wesley C. Measuring Business Cycles. New York: National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc., 1946. (4) Daly, D. J. and White, D. A. "Economic Indicators in the 1960's," Proceedings of the Business and Economics Statistics Section, American Statistical Association, August 1966, pt. V, pp. 64-75. (5) Gordon, R. A. "Alternative Approaches to Forecasting: The Recent Work of the National Bureau," The Review of Economics and Statistics vol. XLIV, No. 3 (August 1962), pp. 284291. (6) Lempert, Leonard H. "Leading Indicators," How Business Economists Forecast (William F. Butler and Robert A. Kavesh, Ed.) pt, I, ch. 2, pp. 31-47. Englewood Cliffs, N.J.: PrenticeHall, 1966. (7) Moore, Geoffrey H., Editor, Business Cycle Indicators. New York: National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc., 1961. (8) Moore, Geoffrey H. and Shiskin, Julius. Indicators of Business Expansions and Contractions, Occasional Paper 103. New York: National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc., 1967. (9) Morris, Frank E. "The Predictive Value of the National Bureau's Leading Indicators," Business Cycle Indicators vol. I, ch. 4, pp. 110-119. New York: National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc., 1961. (10) Okun, Arthur M. "On the Appraisal of Cyclical Turning Point Predictors," Journal of Business, April 1960, pp. 101-120. (11) Shiskin, Julius. Business Cycle Indicators: The Known and the Unknown. Paper presented at the 34th session of the International Statistical Institute, Ottawa, Canada, August 24, 1963. Washington: Bureau of the Census, 1963. (12) Shiskin, Julius. Signals of Recession and Recovery, Occasional Paper 7 7. New York: National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc., 1961. HOW TO READ CHARTS 1 AND 2 Peak (P) of cycle indicates end of expansion and beginning of Reces sion (shaded areas) as designated by NBER. CHART 1 - Business Cycle Series Trough (T) of cycle indicates end of recession and beginning of Expansion as designated by Arabic number indicates latest month for which data are plotted, ("3"-March) Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Series are arranged in charts and tables according to their classification by timing and economic process. Roman number indicates later quarter for which data are plottei "II" = second quarter) Solid line indicates monthly data. (Data may be actual monthly figures or MCD moving averages.*) Dotted line indicates anticipatec data. Broken line indicates actual monthly data for series where an MCD moving average* is plotted. Various scales are used to high light the patterns of the individua series. "Scale A" is an arithmetic scale, "scale L-l" is a logarithm!* scale with 1 cycle in a given dis tance, "scale L-2" is a logarithm!* scale with 2 cycles in that distance etc. The scales should be carefull; noted because they show whethei or not the plotted lines for variou: series are directly comparable. Parallel lincis indicate a break in continuity (data not available, changes in series definitions, extreme values, etc.). Solid line with plotting points indicates quarterly data. CHART 2 - Diffusion Indexes Solid line indicates monthly data over 6- or 9-month spans. Scale shows percent of component: rising. Broken lino indicates monthly data over 1-month spans. Arabic number indicates lates month for which data are used ir computing the indexes. ("2"= February) Solid line with plotting points indicates quarterly data over various spans. * Many of the more irregular series are shown in fterms of their MCD moving averages as; well as their actual monthly data. In such cases, the 4-, 5-, or 6-term moving averages are plotted IVfe, 2, or 2Vz months, respectively, behind the actual data. See appendix C for a description of MCD moving averages. Roman number indicates lates quarter for which data are used if computing the indexes. ("IV"= fourth quarter) Broken line with plotting points in dicates quarterly data over varioui intervals. This line is also used t< indicate anticipated quarterly data HOW TO LOCATE A SERIES To locate a series in BCD, consult the Index—Series Finding Guide in the back of the book where series are arranged into eight groups by economic process and cross referenced by timing classification in the first column. The back cover, which lists series titles (followed by a Roman numeral denoting economic process group) and sources in numerical order within each timing group, may also be helpful to some readers. Section ONE DATA charts and tables LEADING INDICATORS Employment and unemployment Fixed capital investment Inventories and inventory investment Prices, costs, and profits Money and credit ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS Employment and unemployment Production, income, consumption, and frade Fixed capital investment Prices, costs, and profits Money and credit LAGGING INDICATORS Employment and unemployment fixed capital investment Inventories and inventory investment Prices, costs, and profits Money and credit OTHER U.S. SERIES Prices, costs, and profits Foreign trade and payments Federal Government activities INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS Industrial production indexes for selected foreign countries Table 1 ft 0*1 S5l BASIC DATA MAY 1967 UCU CHANGES OVER 4 LATEST MONTHS Average percent change2 Basic data1 Series (See complete titles and sources on back cover) Unit of measure Jan. 1967 Mar. 1967 Feb. 1967 Apr. '66 to date (with srgnr Apr. 1967 3 Apr. '66 1953 to to date 1965 (without5 (without sign)5 6 sign) Current percent change 3 Jan. to Feb. 1967 Feb. to Mar. 1967 Mar. to Apr. 1967 -1.7 -2.8 -8.7 +0.2 -4.2 -2.4 +0,2 -4.6 (NA) NBER LEADING INDICATORS 1. EMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT Marginal Employment Adjustments: 41.0 Hours *1. Avg. workweek, prod, workers, mfg *30. Nonagri. placements, at! industries Thousands 534 4.6 Per 100 employ. . 2. Accession rate, manufacturing 5. Avg. weekly initial claims, State 203 unemployment insurance (inverted 33 ) . Thousands 3. Layoff rate, manufacturing (inverted ) . Per 100 employ. . 1.4 III. FIXED CAPITAL INVESTMENT Formation of Business Enterprises: 102.2 1957-59=100... *38. Index of net business formation 13. New business incorporations Number 16,703 New Investment Commitments: *6. New orders, durable^goods industries. . . Bil. dollars 22.07 94. Construction contracts, value 1957-59=100... 126 *10. Contracts and orders,' plant and7 equip. . .Bil. dollars 5.40 do 11. New capital appropriations, mfg. do 24. New orders^ mach. and equip, indus 4.54 9. Construction contracts, commercial Mil.. sq.ft. and industrial buildings floor space . . . 49.09 7. Private nonfarm housing starts 1,266 Ann. rate, thous. 1957-59=100 .. *29. New bldg. permits, private housing 83.1 IV. INVENTORIES AND INVENTORY INVESTMENT Inventory Investment and Purchasing: 21. Change in [business inventories, all industries7 8 Ann. rate, bil.dol, *31. Change in book value, 8manufacturing and trade inventories . do +12.5 37. Purchased materials, percent reporting higher inventories Percent 47 20. Change in book value, mfrs.' inven8 tories of materials and supplies Ann. rate, bil.doL +2.2 26. Buying policy, prod, mtls., commitments 60 days or longer fft) Percent 72 32. Vendor performance, percent reporting do . . i 48 slower deliveries-^ 25. Change in unfilled8 orders, durable goods industries Bil. dollars ... -0.99 -0.2 -0.7 -1.2 0.5 3.6 5.8 0.5 1.8 4.6 (NA) -3.7 -5.2 8.0 15.8 5.0 8.8 (NA) (NA) -0.4 -0.4 1.0 2.1 0.8 2.5 -0.6 -1.1 -0.6 -7.5 -0.5 3.1 5.3 3.9 9.3 3.1 -0.7 -1.3 -0.9 8.1 9.6 7.9 -2.2 6.6 -1.0 4.4 "*• -2.2 40.3 519 4.2 40.4 497 P4.1 242 1.5 256 pl.7 103.2 15,987 103.3 16,244 r22.-33 143 r5.34 P5.57 r4.24 r22.12 149 p5.51 p22.24 r4.33 P4.48 57.84 r 1,147 78.9 56.14 rl,134 r8l.9 pi, 154 P40.5 P474 (NA) 263 138 P5.41 59,04 p88.5 r+5.6 (NA) -5.8 -19.2 -7.1 -13.3 -2.7 (NA) +0.1 (NA) (NA) +1.0 -4.3 41.6 3.8 +1.2 6.6 +13.5 -1.1 4.7 10.4 -10.7 4.2 -6.6 -0.9 +4.2 +3.2 +0.5 -7.4 -1.8 +2.1 +3.5 9.3 7.2 3.7 +17.8 -9.4 -5.1 -2.9 -1.1 +3.8 + 5.2 +1.8 +8.1 2.3 -10.8 3.7 -10.2 -0.3 (NA) 6.8 6.5 -8.5 +7.0 -19.6 -0.4 1.6 1.5 -3.2 +0.8 (NA) -H.5 -1.5 r+2.3 p+2.0 43 46 r-1.0 p-0.2 67 68 67 -0.2 2.6 5.3 -6.9 51 38 39 -5.6 8.0 7.5 +6.2 -25.5 +2.6 r-0.30 r-0.93 p-0.25 -0.14 0.78 0.48 +0.69 -0.63 +0.68 106.8 105.2 102.5 100.1 -1.6 1.8 1.3 -1.5 -2.6 -2.3 84.45 87.36 89.42 90.96 0.0 2.8 2.5 +3.4 + 2.4 +1.7 -0.3 -0.3 37 (NA) V. PRICES, COSTS, AND PROFITS Sensitive Commodity Prices: *23. Industrial materials prices® 1957-59=100...' Stock Prices: *19. Stock prices, 500 common stocks © ... 1941-43=10... Profits and Profit Margins: *16. Corporate profits after taxes ? 22. Ratio, profits to income originating, corporate, all industries 7 18. Profits per dollar of sales, mfg.7 *17. Ratio, price to unit labor cost, mfg Ann. rate, bil.doL P45.3 -2.4 2.4 5.6 -5.8 Percent Cents, 1957-59=100.. pll.8 (NA) rlOl . 8 -3.4 -1.6 -0.3 3.4 1.6 0.5 4.2 5.7 0.6 -6.3 (NA) -0.6 -0.72 -1.35 0 80 -0.29 -6.1 6.40 12.05 2.07 0.77 5.29 19.1 2.56 3.15 1.31 0.87 2.22 11.0 -9.1 31.2 18.7 102.4 rl01.5 pl01.2 +12.72 +5.64 r+12.13 +2.59 r+0.86 P60,372 r+16.20 r+16.92 p+11.75 +3.17 14-6.83 p+4.56 P-4.92 111.23 108.87 VI. MONEY AND CREDIT Flows of Money and Credit: 98. Change in money supply and time 85. 33, *113. 112, 110. Ann.rate,percent i do .... Change in total U.S. money suoply8. . . . £ Change in mortgage debt Ann. rate, bil.dol. 8 do ... Change in consumer installment debt . . Change in business loans8 do 7 Total private borrowing Ann. rate, mil. dot. Credit Difficulties: 14. Liabilities of business failures (inv. 3 ) 39. Delinquency rate, installment loans, 30 days and over (inverted 3 ) .... Mil. dollars ... Percent . .. +6.60 -4.92 +14.16 +3.36 +6.01 ' 118.61 [ 1.82 (NA) (NA) p+9.25 110.80 (NA) +0.06 -0.5 1.8 2.6 +3.48 -11.64 +6.12 +10 . 56 -til 28 -21.84 (NA) -0.38 -2.03 (NA) -0.77 +0.58 +5.97 +2.42 -5.15 +19.5 +6.2 -4.0 +2.1 -1.8 (NA) Table 1 BASIC DATA MAY 1967 CHANGES OVER 4 LATEST MONTHS-Continued , 5 Basic data1 Series (See complete titles and sources on back cover) Unit of measure Jan. 1967 Average percent change2 Mar. 1967 Feb. 1967 Apr. '66 Apr. to date 1967 . (with sign)4 3 Apr, '66 1953 to to date 1965 (without (without 5 sign) sign)5 6 Current percent change3 Jan. to Feb. . 1967 Feb. to Mar. 1967 Mar. to Apr. 1967 -2.7 -3.2 -3.0 -1.6 NBER ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS I. EMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT Job Vacancies: Thousands 301 Nonagri job openings unfilled 1957-59-100.. 46 Help-wanted advertising Comprehensive Employment: 511. Man-hours in nonfarm establishments — ' Ann. rate, bil. .man-hours ... *41. Employees in nonagri. establishments. . .' Thousands. .. . do 42 Total nonagri cultural employment Comprehensive Unemployment: *43. Unemployment rate, total (inverted 3). . . Percent 45. Avg. weekly insured unemploy. rate, do State (inverted ^ do 40. Unemployment rate, married males (inv.3) II. PRODUCTION, INCOME, CONSUMPTION, AND TRADE Comprehensive Production: 49 GNP in current dollars 7 *50 GNP in 1958 dollars7 *47 Industrial production Comprehensive Income: *52 Personal income 53. Wages, salaries in mining, mfg., constr. . Comprehensive Consumption and Trade: *816 Manufacturing and trade sales 57. Final sales *54 Sales of retail stores 364 r!84 P353 pl8l -1,6 -0.3 2.3 .1-3. •:• 3.1' 3.0 -4.8 +0.5 rl34-03 r 133. 52 rl33.50 65~,38l, r65,497 r65,513 69,892 70,247 70,240 P133.16 p65,6ll 70,020 +0,2 +0.3 +0.2 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.4 -0.4 +0.2 0.0 -0.5 +0.2 393 189 374 190 , 0.0 0,0 -0.3 +0.1 3.7 3.7 3.6 3.7 -0.1 2.7 3.9 0.0 +2.7 -2.8 2.4 1.7 2.4 1.6 2.6 1.7 2.6 1.9 -2.1 -0.6 4.9 4.2 4.2 5.1 0.0 +5.9 -8,3 -6.2 0.0 -11.8 Ann. rate, bil.dol, do 1957-59=100.. r!58a r763.7 r656.7 r!56.4 156.4 P155.9 +1.4 +0,7 +0,1 1.4 0.7 0.5 1.5 1.3 1.0 +0.6 -0.1 -1.1 Ann.rate, bil.dol. do r607.1 161,2 r609.3 160.2 r6l2.7 160.6 p6l4.1 pl60.2 +0.6 +0.4 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.8 +0.4 -0.6 +0.6 +0.2 +0.2 -0.2 Mil. dollars... Ann.rate, bil.dol. Mil. dollars... 87,386 (HA) r 86, 299 p87,371 r758.1 r25,470 r25,771 p25,667 +0.2 +1.7 0.7 1.7 1.0 1.0 1.4 1.0 -1.2 +2.0 -0.8 +1.2 (NA) +1.2 -0.4 1.3 1.3 1.4 6.6 -0.4 -1.2 -0.3 0.0 +0.1 +0.1 0.1 0.1 •0.2 0.2 +0.2 0.0 -0.1 0.0 -0.1 ?a 98 -12 -240 +61 -5.7 +3.7 -0.4 +0.9 -10.3 +0.7 +1.3 +1.4 III. FIXED CAPITAL INVESTMENT Backlog of Investment Commitments: 96. Unfilled orders, durable goods indus 9 Bil. dollars... do 97. Backlog of capital appropriations, mfg. . . 25,687 75. A3 r75.13 r74.20 p20.32 P73.95 +0.2 +0.7 0.0 -0.3 -1.9 V. PRICES, COSTS, AND PROFITS Comprehensive Wholesale Prices: 55. Wholesale prices, industrial 1957-59-100.. commodities © ' 58. Wholesale prices, manufactured goodsig). . . . . . d o VI. MONEY AND CREDIT Bank Reserves: 93 Free reserves 8 (inverted 3) © Money Market Interest Rates: 114 Treasury bill rate @ . ; 116 Corporate bond yields @ 115 Treasury bond yields© . 117 Municipal bond yields(u) Mil. dollars... Percent do do do ; : 105.8 106. A 106.0 106.4 106.0 106.3 106.0 106.2 -16 -4 is-236 1*175 4.76 5.53 4.40 3.54 4.55 5.35 4.47 3.52 4.29 5.55 4.45 3.55 3.85 5.59 4.51 3.60 -1.4 +0.4 -0.1 +0.2 4.4 2.8 1.6 2.7 6.7 1.6 1.6 2.5 -4.4 -3.3 +1.6 -0.6 0,6 0.6 0.6 0.6 +2.0 4.8 6.5 0.0 +1.4 1.6 3.2 -0.3 +0.5 1.0 1.6 -0.5 -37 0.0 NBER LAGGING INDICATORS 1. EMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT Long Duration Unemployment: *502. Unemployment rate, persons unemployed 15 weeks and over (inverted 3) III. FIXED CAPITAL INVESTMENT Investment Expenditures: *6jl. Business expenditures, new plant and equipment7 505. Machinery and equipment sales and business construction expenditures Percent a62.60 Ann.rate, bil.dol. do 75.80 75. 44 P75.14 (NA) 0.0 -0.4 0.0 (NA) Table 1 BASIC DATA MAY 1967 bed CHANGES OVER 4 LATEST MONTHS-Continued Average percent change2 Basic data1 Series (See complete titles and sources on back cover) Unit of measure Jan, 1967 Feb. 1967 Mar. 1967 Apr. 1967 3 Apr. '66 Apr. '66 to date to date (without (with sign)4 sign)5 1953 to 1965 (without sign)5 6 Current percent change3 Jan. to Feb. 1967 Feb. to Mar. 1967 Mar. to Apr. 1967 NBER LAGGING INDICATORS-Continued IV. INVENTORIES AND INVENTORY INVESTMENT Inventories: *71. Book value, tnfg. and trade inventories . .Bil. dollars — 65. Book value, mfrs.' inventories of do finished goods (HA) +0.9 0.9 0.5 +0.1 +0.1 (NA) 26. 40 r26.67 p26.84 (NA) +1.1 1.1 0.6 +1.0 +0.6 (NA) 103 '.9 p. 713 rl04.5 rlQ4.7 p!04.9 +1.4 +0.4 1.4 0.4 0.8 0.5 +2.4 +0.6 +0.2 +0.2 Mil. dollars ... 73,746 73,962 74,226 (NA) +0.6 0.6 0.8 +0.3 +0.4 (NA) do 60,754 60,525 61,167 p62,407 +1.1 1.3 1.0 -0.4 +1.1 +2.0 Percent do 6. 62 6.13 6.46 6.29 +1.9 +0.2 3.8 1.5 2.0 0.1 -2.9 -2.4 -1.7 -0.9 114.7 1U-B 115.3 +0,2 0.2 0.2 +0.1 +0.2 +0.3 V, PRICES, COSTS, AND PROFITS Unit Labor Costs: 68: Labor cost (cur, dol.) per unit of gross product (1958 dol.), nonfin.corp.7 . . . . Dollars 1957-59-100.. *62 Labor cost per unit of output rofg VI. MONEY AND CREDIT Outstanding Debt: 66 Consumer installment debt *72. Commercial and industrial loans outstanding Interest Rates on Business Loans and Mortgages: *67. Bank rates on short-term business loans 9(u) 118. Mortgage yields, residential © 136.59 rl36.78 P136.94 6.35 OTHER SELECTED U.S. SERIES V. PRICES, COSTS, AND PROFITS Comprehensive Retail Prices: 81 Consumer prices © 1957-59=100.. VII. FOREIGN TRADE AND PAYMENTS 89. U.S. balance of payments:7 8 Mil. dollars ... a. Liquidity balance basis do b. Official settlements basis 8 3 88. Merchandise trade balance (inverted ) . .....do do 86. Exports, excluding military aid 861. Export orders, durables exc. mot. veh.@. do 862. Export orders, nonelectrical machinery. . . 1957-59=100.. 87. General imports Mil. dollars ... +324^6 2,620.2 891 234 2,295.6 115.0 P-539 p-1,832 +397.1 +385.8 +436.0 2,601.2 2,570.5 2,660.0 (NA) p897 r833 (NA) p240 r!96 2,204.1 2,184.7 2,224-0 -142 -556 -15.5 +1.1 +4.3 +2.5 +0.5 142 1,246 74.4 2.7 19.8 8.1 3.2 -4.7 -2.8 +1.4 +2,2 4.7 31.8 16.4 9.2 +6.9 +1.6 +1.4 +1.9 0.0 6.9 13.7 18.9 17.1 15.6 -88 341 492 -1,803 -50.2 +11.3 58.4 -72.5 -1.2 +3.5 3.8 -0.7 (NA) +7.7 -6.5 12.4 (NA) 6.3 -16.2 +22.4 +1.8 -4.0 -0.9 3.0 VIII. FEDERAL GOVERNMENT ACTIVITIES 95. Federal surplus (+) or deficit (-),8 nat'l. income and prod. acct. . ..... Ann.rate, bil. dol. 84. Federal cash surplus (+) or deficit (-)•*- • do.,... 83. Federal cash receipts from public .....do 82. Federal cash payments to public ... do 101. National 7defense purchases, current dollars do 91 Defense Dept. obligations total ; .Mil. dollars ... 90. Defense Dept. oblig., procurement do 99. New orders, defense products Bil. dollars ... 92. Military contract awards in U.S Mil. dollars . . . +27 !l 177.0 149.9 p-10.3 -15.3 136.8 152.1 -15.3 132.3 167.6 (NA) (NA) (KA) 6,518 2,296 2.85 3,109 r69.7 6,595 2,140 r3.33 r3,8SO 6,343 1,903 r3.24 2,662 (NA) (NA) P3.24 (MA) -6.7 2.5 4.3 -42.4 3.9 -22.7 4-4 +1.5 0.0 +11.3 +10.2 2.3 +6.4 +1.2 -3.8 13.9 -6.8 -11.1 27.4 22.5 +16.8 -2.7 24.5 +24.8 -31.4 (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) 0.0 (NA) fSeries included m the 1966 NBER "short list" of indicators. ©Not seasonally adjusted. NA=not available; r =revised; p= preliminary; e -estimated; anticipated. Series are seasonally adjusted except for those series, indicated by ®, that appear to contain no seasonal movement. See additional basic data and notes in 3 table 2 Average percent changes are based on month-to-month (or quarter-to-quarter) percent changes, for the specified periods. To facilitate interpretations of eye i cal movements, those series that usually fall when general bu si ness activity rises and rise when business falls are in verted so that rises are shown as declines and declines as rises (see series 3, 5, 14, 39, 40, 43t 45, 88, 93, and 502). 5 Percent changes are computed in the usual way but the signs are reversed. See footnote 8 for other change qualifications. Average computed with regard to sign. Average computed without regard to sign. 8 61Tie period varies among the series: however for most series, the period covered is 1953-65. 'Quarterly series; figures are placed in the middle month of Quarter. Since basic data for this series are expressed in plus or minus amounts, the changes are month-to-month (or qMarter-to-ojjarter) differences expressed in the same unit of measure as thebasicdata, rather than in percentages. 9Figures are placed in the last month of quarter. Chart 1A bed BASIC DATA MAY 1967 BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 to PRESENT NBER Leading Indicators I. EMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT (Nov.) (Oct.) P T (July) |Aug.) P T Marginal Emt (July) (Apr.) P (May) (Feb.) T P T Adjustments 42 *1, Avg. workweek, prod, wkrs., mfg. (hours) 41 4039- 700-. *30. Nonagri. placements, all indus. (thous.) 600 = 500 400J 2. Accession rate, mfg. (per 100 employees) 150-i 5. Avg. weekly initial claims, State unempL insur. (thous.-inverted scale) 200250= 300350400» O-i 3. Layoff rate, mfg. (per 100 employees-inverted scale) 123-1 1948 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 See 'How to Read Charts 1 and 2,' page 4. Asterisk (*} identifies series on 'short list'. Current data for these series are shown on page 29. 65 66 67 1968 £ 8 Chart 1A E*ASIC DATA MAY 1967 bed I! BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 to PRESENT-Continued NBER Leading Indicators-Continued IE, FIXED CAPITAL INVESTMENT (July) (Aug.) P T (Nov.) (Oct.) P T (May) (Feb.) P T (July) (Apr.) P T *38. Index of net bus. formation (1957-59=100) 13. New bus. incorporations (thousJ *6. New orders, dur. goods Indus, (bil. dol.) 04. Construction contracts, total value (index: 1957-59-100; MCD moving avg.-5-term) *10. Contracts and orders, plant and equip, (bil. dol.) A?" 1948 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 See 'How to Read Charts 1 and 2,' page 4. Asterisk (*j identifies series on 'short list'. Current data for these series are shown on pages 29 and 30. 10 66 67 1968 'Chart 1A bed MAY BASIC DATA 1967 BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 to PRESENT-Continued NBER Leading Indicators -Continued HI., FIXED CAPITAL INVESTMENT- Continued (Nov.) jOcti P T (July) (Aug.) P T (July) (Apr) P T (May) (Feb.) P T 11, New capital appropriations, mfg., Q (bit. dol.| 24. New orders, mach. and equip, indus. (bil. dol. 9. Constr. contracts, com. and indus. (mil, sq. ft. of floor area; M CO' 7. Private nonfarm housing starts (ann rate, millions; MOD moving avg.-6-term) *29. New bldg. permits, private housing units (index: 1957-59=100) 1948 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 See 'How to Read Charts 1 and 2,' page 4. Asterisk (*] identifies series on 'short list'. Current data for these series are shown on page 30. 66 67 1968 11 Chart 1A BASIC DATA MAY 1967 bed BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 to PRESENT-Continued NBER Leading Indicators-Continued BE. INVENTORIES AND INVENTORY INVESTMENT (Nov.) (Oct.) P T (July) (Aug.) P T (July) (Apr.) P T (May) (Feb.) P T 21. Change in bus. inventories, al! Indus., Q (ann. rate, bil. do I.) +10- 0-10J *31. Change in book value, mfg. and trade inventories +20-1 {ann. rate, bil. M.; MCD moving avg.-5-term) M (UHN /IS 4 iff tf 1 +10- *> -10- 37. Purchased materials, percent of companies reporting higher inventories 75* 50- 25- 20. Change to book value, mfrs.' inventories of materials and supplies [ann. rate, bil. del.; MCD moving avg.-6-term) v oH 100° 26. Buying policy, prod. mtls.r percent of companies reporting commitments 60 days or longer 75- 50- 25J 1948 49 «50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 See 'How to Read Charts 1 and 2,' page4: Asterisk {*] identifies series on 'short list'. Current data for these series are shown on page 31. 12. 66 67 1968 Chart 1A beef BASIC DATA MAY 1967 BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 to PRESENT-Continued NBER Leading Indicators-Continued BE.INVENTORIES AND INVENTORY INVESTMENT-Continued P (July) (Apr.) P T (July) (Aug.) (Nov.) (Oct.) P T T (May) (Feb.) P T 32, Vendor performance, percent of companies reporting slower deliveries 25. Chaage in unfilled orders, dur. goods i (bi). <tol.; NICO moving avg.-4-term) 3C. PRICES, COSTS, AND PROFITS 160-i 140 120 23. Industrial materials prices (index; 1957-59=100) 10080- -M- 100 90 80 70 60 50- *I9. Stock prices, 500 common stocks [index: 1941-43=10) 4030- 20 J 1948 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 See 'How to Read Charts 1 and 2,' page 4. Asterisk (*] identifies series on 'short list'. Current data for these series are shown on pages 31 and 32. 66 67 1968 Chart 1A BASIC DATA MAY 1967 bed BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 to PRESENT-Continued NBER Leading Indicators-Continued I. PRICES, COSTS, AND PROFITS-Continued (Nov.) (Oct.) P (July) (Aug.) P T (July) fApr.J T P |Ma^] (Feb.) P T T 70-1 60 < *16. Corporate profits after taxes, Q (ann. rate, bil. do I.] son 40 < mcip«j£igi!^^ t 18. Profits per dollar of sales, mfg.f Q (cents) *17. Ratio, price to unit labor cost, mfg. (index: 1957-59-100) 52 'Hew to S3 S4 9§ §6 97 58 50 6© 6a 62 63 64 • §eri@s m ash@rt list9, twtmt dati for tl@s§ s@ri@i ire sliowo on paga 32.. 6S 66 67 {Chart 1A bed BASIC DATA MAY 1967 BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 to PRESENT-Continued ER Indicators-Continued 21. MONEY AND CREDIT |Nov.) (Oct.) P T 98. Change in money supply and time deposits (ann. rate, percent; MCD moving avg,-6-term) +10- 85. Change in money supply (ann. rate, percent; MCD moving avg.-6-term) 33. Change in mortgage debt (ann. rate, bil. dol. *113. Change in consumer installment debt (ann. rate, bil. dol.) 112. Cbange in business loans (ann. rate, bil. dol.; MCD moving avg.-5-term) 0= -I -10 1948 49 See 'How t@ IM 5© 51 52 53 54 §5 56 57 58 .\ and a/ page % Asterisk .[*} Identif^g s@ri@§ m 'short list\ 59 60 61 62 63 @J 1968 Dyrrsnt data for trigs® series are stow® m 15 Chart 1A BASIC DATA MAY 1967 bed BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 to PRESENT-Continued NBER Leading Indicators-Continued [. MONEY AND CREDIT -Continued (Nov.) (Oct.) P (July) (Aug.) T P (July) (Apr.) T P (May) (Feb.) P T T 100- 80 - total private l w i n g , Q (arm, rate.bil. dol. 60- CO Jj 40- 20J of bus. fateqa |mll. dol.- inverted scale; " M MCD moving avg.r6-term) 39. Delinquency rate, 30 days and over, total installment (UPS (per cent-in verted scale) 1.5- 2.0- 2.5- 3.0J 1948 49 SO 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 See 'How to feed! Charts 1 and 2/ pag©4. Curat data for these series are shown on page 33. 16 6© 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 I960 « 5 Chart IB bed BASIC DATA MAY 1967 BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 to PRESENT-Continued NBER Roughly Coincident Indicators I. EMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT (July) (Apr.) P T (July) (Aug.) P T (Nov.) (Oct.) P T (May) (Feb.) P T Job Vacancies 600 -| 500- 301. Nonagri. job openings unfilled, BES (thousands) r~i 400300- 200-1 300 -i 250200- 46. Help-wanted advertising (index: 1957-59=100) 150100J 150 -] 140130- I 511. Man-hours in nonfarm establishments I |ann. rate, biL man-h&urs) j 120110- 70~ *41. Employees in nonagri establishments (millions) 6560™ 55- 75- 42. Total nonagri. employment Imiliions) 706560- 55 50J 1948 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 1968 9 See 'How to Read Charts 1 and 2,' page 4. Asterisk (*) identifies series on 'short list . Current data for these series are shown on page 34. 17 Chart IB BASIC DATA MAY 1967 BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 to PRESENT-Continued bed NBER Roughly Coincident Indicators-Continued I, EMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT-Continued (Nov.; (Oct.; P (July) (Aug.) (July) (Apr.) P T T Comprehensive Unemployment (May) (Feb.) P T *43. Unemployment rate, totat (percent-inverted scale] *">/ i i 45. Avg. weekly insured unemployment rate (percent-inverted scale] 40. Unemployment rate, married mates (percent-inverted scale) ra E. PRODUCTION, INCOME, CONSUMPTION, AND TRADE *50. GNP in 1958 dollars, Q (ann. rate, bill doCf *47. Industrial production f index: 1957^ 59=100) §4 S3 56 5V §8 59 60 €1 62 63 64 65 p] SMiftes series on 'short list. Current data for these series are shown on pages 34 and 35, 66 67 1968 Chart IB bed BASIC DATA MAY 1967 BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 to PRESENT-Continued ioughly Coincident Indicators-Continued . PRODUCTION, INCOME, CONSUMPTION, AND TRADE-Continued H » *52. Persona! incomejanri* _rat«,JH, dol.j 53. Wages and salaries in mining, rate;W, do *5i, SaJesjtf retaii stores (bil. dol.) i -ji. w, 1S48 49 50 51 §2 53 54 S3 56 57 ' §8 ( 59 60 61 62 63 Ssa 'How to Read Charts 1 ant! 2,' page4. Asterisk (*j id@ntifii$ §@re@s en °sM list'. Current data for these series ar@ 19 Chart 16 BASIC DATA MAY 1967 bed BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 to PRESENT-Continued NBER Roughly Coincident Indicators-Continued HI. FIXED CAPITAL INVESTMENT (Nov.) (Oct.) P T (May) (Feb.) P T (July) lApr.) P T (July) (Aug.) P T Backlog of Investment Commitments r^lpF 120-j 10080- 96. Mfrs/ unfilled orders, dur. goods indus. (bil. dot.) 60- 40 - 30- B -97. Backlog of cap. appropriations, mfg., Q (bil. dol.) ...—^ Jl S 252015- II* 10- . PRICES, COSTS, AND PROFITS Comprehensive Wholesale Prices 55. Wholesale prices, industrial commodities (index: 1957-59=100) 95™ 58] Wholesale prices, mfnt goods (index: 1957-59=100)" 95- 1948 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 See 'How to Read Charts 1 and 2,' page 4. Current data for these series are shown on page 36 . Digitized for 20 FRASER 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 1968 Chart IB bed BASIC DATA MAY 1967 BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 to PRESENT-Continued NBER Roughly Coincident Indicators-Continued . MONEY AND CREDIT (Nov.) (Oct.) P T (July] (Apr.) P T (July) (Aug.) P T (May) (Feb. P T 93. Free reserves foil, do!.-inverted scale 114. Treasury bill rate (percent) 116. Corporate bond yields (percent) 115. Treasury bond yields percent) 117, Municipal bond yields [percent) 1948 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 1968 See 'How to Read Charts 1 and 2,' page 4. Current data for these series are shown on page 36. 21 Chart 1C Wm BASIC DATA K3 BUSINESS MAY 1967 CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 to PRESENT-Continued feed ••Ml NBER Lagging Indicators I. EMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT (July! (Apr.] P I (July] (Aug.) P T (Nov.) (Oct.) P T (May) (Feb.) P T Long Duration Unemployment *502. Unemployment rate, persons unemployed 15 weeks and ever (percent-inverted scale)- HI. FIXED CAPITAL INVESTMENT Investment Expenditures *61, Bus. expend., new plant and equip., Q (ann. rate, bil. dol.] expend, (ann. rate, bit. dol. Et. INVENTORIES AND INVENTORY INVESTMENT t71J&ffiLyjrfui^mf^^^ 65. Book value of mfrs.' inventories, finished goods (bil. dol. 1948 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 See 'H®w to !®ad gharts 1 and 2,' page4. Asterisk [*) identifies series on 'short list'. Current data for these series are shown on page 37. Digitized22 for FRASER 35 66 67 1968 bed Chart 1C BASIC DATA MAY 1967 BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 to PRESENT-Continued NBER Lagging Indicators-Continued 3E. PRICES, COSTS, AND PROFffS (Nov.) (Oct.) P f liuly) (Apr.) P T (July) (Aug.) P I (May] (Feb.) P T *62. Labor cost per unit of output! mfg. (index: 1957-59=100) 31. MONEY AND CREDIT 66. Consumer installment debt (btl. dot. 60 40 Si- *72. COm. and ml loans outstanding, weeklyreporting large com. banks (bil. dol.) 6f; 40 Interest Rates on Business Loans and Mortgages *67. Bank rates on short-term bus, loans, Q (percent]) 118. Mortgage yields, residential (percent) 502 333 5§4 SSS Si@ Sf7 SSB 2,' pag© 4. Asterisk ['i Uglifies sgrtes 5;s asM Sisr. Current datg f@r these series m® mtm m pag@ 3§. 23 Chart ID BASIC DATA MAY 1967 bed BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 to PRESENT-Continued Other Selected U.S. Series a:. PRICES, COSTS, AND PROFITS (Nov.) (Oct.) (July) (Aug.) P T P T (May) (Feb.) P T (July) (Apr.) P T 120115- 81. Consume pices (index: 1957-59=100) _^S 110105100- XH. FOREIGN TRADE AND PAYMENTS 89. U.S. balance of payments, Q (bil. do!.) b. Official settlements basis -0.5- 88. Merchandise trade balance (bil. dol.-inverted scale; 4-term moving avg.) 0- 10.5 - +1.0- 1948 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 See 'How to Read Charts 1 and 2,' page 4. Current data for these series are shown on page 39. 24 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 1968 Chart (1D bed BASIC DATA MAY 1967 BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 to PRESENT-Continued Other Selected U.S. Series-Continued OT. FOREIGN TRADE AND PAYMENTS-Continued (Nov.) (Oct.) (July) (Aug.) (July) (Apr.) P P T (May) (Feb.) P T T 86. Exports, exc. military aid (bil. dol.; 861. Export orders, durables exc. motor vehicles (bit. dol.; 4-term moving avg. 10OJ0.6J i flfi? i '; 1 • : '• P if port orders, non^lfif:trinai iD3^1}inpry (index; 1957-59=100; MCD moving avg. -4-term) r ^ 300q 250- | j^^J^ • f^^ i H 200- 3.02.52.0 - 87. General imports (bil. dot.; MCD moving avg.-4-term| ** 1.5- 1.0- 1948 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 €7 1968 See 'How to Read Charts 1 and 2,' page 4. Current data for tnese series are shown on page 39. 25 Chart ID BASIC DATA MAY 1967 BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 to PRESENT-Continued bed Other Selected U.S. Series-Continued SOL FEDERAL GOVERNMENT ACTIVITIES Uuiyj (Apr.) (July) (Aug.) |Nov.) (Oct.) P T P (May) (Feb.! ? T T surplus or deficit, naDenaJ income and prg^f acct., Q (am, rate, ML dot] i +30" 84. Fed. cash surplus or deficit (arm. rate, bit. do I.; 6-term moving average] 83. Fed. cash receiptsTfrom"public |ann. rate, bf."dat; MCOTnoving avg.-6-term) 82. fed. cash payments to publicjann.jate, bit. do!.; MCD moving avg.-6-term) 1048 49 See 'How to Seail 51 52 53 94 55 56 B7 S8 59 1 ^u^ 2/ page 4 fiurr@nt data for tfeese series are shown oo page 40. 65 66 67 1968 bed Chart ID BASIC DATA MAY 1967 BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 to PRESENT-Continued Other Selected US. Series-Continued FJEHERAL GOVERNMENT ACTIVITIES-Continued (Nov.) [Oct.) (July) Wpr.J P (May) (Fab.) T P T ' ^ 91. Defense Dept. oblig,, total (bil,dol.;MCD moving avg.-6-term) 90. Defense Dept. oblig., procurement (bit. (tot.; MCO moving avg.-6-term) 99. Hew orders, defense products |bil. do).; MCD moving avg.-6-term] . ..... . ... . . . , .-J 92. Military contract awards in U.S. (nil. dot.; MCD moving avg.-6-term) SO 51 s 'How to m^ Etsarts 1 and) 2/ 53 54 5§ S6 S7 §S 59 Current data for these series ire show® m page 40. 60 61 62 , .LA 51=4 Chart IE BASIC DATA MAY 1967 bed BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 to PRESENT-Continued International Comparisons . INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION INDEXES (May) (Feb.) P T (July) (Apr.) P T (July) (Aug.) P T (Nov.) (Oct.) P T 47. Uhitif States (index; 1957*59=100)- |23. Canada (index: 122. United Kingdom (index; 1957-59=100) France (index: 1957-59=100) 125. West Germany (index: 1957-59=100) 128. Japan (index; 1957-59=100) 121. OECD Europ**fl~eowrtries (index: 1957-59-100) 127. Italy (index: 1957-59-100) 1948 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 See 'How to Read Charts 1 and 2,' page 4. Current data for these series are shown on page 41. 9ft 60 62 63 64 65 66 67 1968 Table 2A beef BASIC DATA MAY 1967 LATEST DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES NBER Leading Indicators Major Economic Process Minor Economic Process Year and month EMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT FIXED CAPITAL INVESTMENT Marginal Employment Adjysfmenfs Formation of Business Enterprises *1. Average workweek of .production workers, manufacturing *30. Nonagricultural placements; all industries 2. Accession rate, manufacturing (Hours) (Thous.) (Per 100 employees) 5. Average weekly initial claims for unemployment in* surance, State programs 1 (Thous.) 3. Layoff rater manufacturing (Per 100 employees) *38. Index of net 13. Number of new business formation business incorporations (1957-59=100) (Number) 1965 October November December 41.2 41.4 41.3 1966 January February March 41.4^ 41.5 April May June "..- 41.5: . 41.5 41.0 41. 4 October November December 41.3 April May june .,. 231 1 248 218 1.6 1.5 1.4 106.5 ; 105.7 106.1 16,844 16,901 17,136 4.5 4.9 4.8 209 212 206 1-3 1.3 1.4 105.5 106.1 106.9 16,994 17,606 17,625 . -4.9 4.9 -.;• 5.2 222 219 182 1.2 1.2 1.2 109.1 109.6 0>109.6 B> 18,087 17,451 17,266 ..1.2 1.1 107.6 106.8 106.2 17,057 16,644 16,577 : :; : 4.8 5.1 522 513 SO 5 ' 3 July August September 1967 January February March : 570 R>600 589 41.5 : 16,664 16,580 17,017 547 544 563 41.0 41.1 - 104.7 105.4 106.2 4.1 4.3 ,4.5. July August September ; 1.5 1.4 1.4 541 537 529 41.0 41.2 41.0 : 237 224 224 4.0 " j 4.1 4.4 : April May June : 16,784 16,854 17,131 535 533 548 522 549 528 4LO 106.5 106.6 106.1 243 248 237 41^2 41.3 41.0 40.3 40.4 P40.5 ,:-. 230 196 183 1.7 1.0 1.1 104.8 103.9 102.7 16,074 16,343 15,764 533 530 524 5.1 4.9 4.5 186 194 212 B> i.o 1.1 1.3 103.3 100.6 101.4 16,233 16,206 16,583 534 519 4^2 203 242 256 1.4 1.5 .pi- 7. 102.2 103.2 103.3 16,703 15,987 16,244 (NA) (NA) 542 543 509 "*• ,, : fi>179 185 186 4.6 5.1 5.0 " 4ol9 : 1.5 1.4 1.4 4.0 4.1 4.3 January February March :; ; , 497; P474 (NA) 263 - , (NA) July August September October November December NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicatedby ®. Current high values are indicated by[B>; for series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3, 5, 14, 39, 40, 43F 45, 93, and 502), current low values are indicated by E>. Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order, Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover; Series preceded by an asterisk (*) are included in the 1966 NBER "short list" of indicators. The V indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e" estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available. •'•Data exclude Puerto Rico which is included in figures published by source agency. 29 Table 2A BASIC DATA MAY 1967 LATEST DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES-Continued bed NBER Leading Indicators—Continued Major Economic Process FIXED CAPITAL INVESTMENT-Con. New Investment Commitments Economic Process Year and month *6. Value of manufacturers' new orders, durable goods industries 94. Index of construction contracts, total value (Bil.dol.) (1957-59=100) 11. Newly ap*10. Contracts . proved capital and orders for plant and equip- appropriations, 1,000 manufacment turing corporations (Bil. dol.) (Bil.dol.) 1965 January February March 21.27 21.13 21.71 137 140 141 4.72 4.67 4.84 5. '66 April May June 22.0-4 20.99 21.31 152 145 139 4.98 5.02 4.81 July August September 22.20 21.51 22.16 149 October November December 24. Value of manufacturers1 new orders, machinery and equipment industries (Bil.dol.) 3.96 3.80 9. Construction 7. New private contracts, com- nonfarm housing mercial and in- units started1 dustrial buildings (Mil. sq.ft. floor space) (Ann. rate ,thous.) *29. Index of new private housing units authorized by local building permits3 (1957-59=100) 4.02 52.94 54.89 54.41 1,417 1,468 1,465' 112.3 108.2 109.9 5*.79 4.08 4.07 4.09 57.74 57.52 57.72 1,532 1,501 1,539 106.2 109.7 109.9 s!S5 147 5.16 4.90 5.15 4.35 4.16 4.15 56.68 52.00 62.97 1,447 1,409 1,436 108.9 108. 4* 104.1 22. & 22.39 23. 40 147 141 153 5.13 5.05 5.35 6.32 4.25 4.32 4.58 60.55 61.74 64.13 1,380 1,531 1,735 109.8 112.9 114.0 23.58 23.7424.89 152 157 158 5.46 5.71 5.66 6.*36 4.45 4.58 4.59 62.29 K>70.42 67.99 1,585 1,349 1,538 110.7 105.6 111.9 5.91 5.77 5.57 E> viii 4.79 4.84 4.75 68.28 64.00 65.85 1,481 1,287 1,261 104.6 96.9 84.2 63.54 63.52 64.40 1,068 1,084 1,050 81.3 74.5 64.7 .,.- 139 1966 January February March . April May June July August September October... , November December 1967 January February March April May June 24.20 24.28 24.59 B>161 ^ 156 147 24.37 23.51 |£>,25.27 147 139 146 6.10 5.87 fp> 6.28 6^08 24.24 23.03 23.96 139 130 133 5.76 5.52 5.45 r6.24 4.82 4.65 4.60 54.76 64.42 60.21 826 993 1,066 63.0 63.1 67.0 22.07 P22.33 ' r22.12 126 143 x ^9 r5.40 r5.34 p5.51 p5*.*57 4.54 r4.24 r4.33 49.09 57.84 56.14 1,266 r 1,147 rl,134 83.1 78.9 r81.9 p22.24 138 P5.41 P4.48 59.04 pl,154 p88.5 g> 5.09 4.81 4.91 July..... August September October November December NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ® . Current high values are indicated by BC>; for series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3, 5, 14, 39, 40, 43, 45, 93, and 502). current low values are indicated by . Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. Series preceded by an asterisk (*) are included in the 1966 NBER "short list" of indicators. The Y indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e" estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available. 1 High value (1,753) vas reached in January 1964. High value (124.6) was reached in February 1964. 3 30 Table 2A bed BASIC DATA MAY 1967 LATEST DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES-Continued NBER Leading Indicators—Continued Major Economic Process Minor Economic Process INVENTORIES AND INVENTORY INVESTMENT Inventory Investment and Purchasing 21. Change in 20. Change in 37. Purchased ma26. Production *31. Change in business invenbook value of 1 materials, perbook value of terials, percent of tories after valmanufacturing manufacturers cent of compacompanies reportinventories of and trade invenuation adjustnies reporting ing higher inven1 ment, all induscommitments 60 tories, total materials2 and tories tries supplies days or longer® (Ann. rate, bil.dol.) (Ann. rate, bil.dol.) (Percent reporting) (Ann. rate, bil.dol.) (Percent reporting) Year and month 1965 January February March +9^5 April May June +f! 6 July August September +8.7 October . . November December 1966 January February . March ... : July August September November December 1967 January February . March... t9'.i. April May June 68 72 66 +0.32 +0.81 +8.8 +8.4 +7,8 61 59 56 +5.3 +1.5 -0.5 67 65 62 72 70 66 +0.84 +0.50 +0.58 +0.7 +1.4 ; +3.1 62 63 61 62 64 62 +0.38 +0.32 +1.24 49 +0.9 +1.0 +2.0 63 63 63 60 66 72 +1.28 +0.78 +1.09 49 47 52 +0.9 +1.2 +0.8 68 67 68 51 53 54 +3.8 +3.4 +4.0 69 70 72 82 75 69 +9.6 58 58 54 +1.1 +5.4 +3.3 73 73 72 70 73 72 +1.34 +0.64 g> +2.30 +18.6 +17*6 +20.3 58 57 : 56 +1.4 +2.0 +1.6 E> 75 73 70 70 64 57 +0.79 -0.21 +0.24 +12.5 r+2.3 pn-2,0 47 43 46 +2.2 r-1.0. p-0.2 72 67 68 48 51 38 -0.99 r-0.30 r-0.93 (NA) 37 39 (NA) 67 39 p-0.25 :::: 54 :• ,- - ; : B> .v +12*8 +13.6 . : . ,.+15,9 58 57 47 49 +17.7 +16.9 • • = • ' •g> +16 !i' r+5.6 65 i 65 68 +8.1 +11.7 +13.1 +12^3 (Bil. dot.) +1.0 +0.4 +2,5 .-,+19.4 +8.9 April May June October v (Percent reporting) 61 62 57 +6.3 +10.2 ; 25. Change in unfilled orders, durable goods industries +12*6 +3.8 +14.9 +11.5 +12; 2 •*• +2.3 +10 ! 4 32. Vendor performance, percent of companies reporting slower deliveries,® - •- 74 _ 85 B> 86 +0.44 +1.27 +1.31 +1.65 +1.49 +1.36 +1.70 July August September October November December NOTE' Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicatedby ® . Currenthigh values are indicated byB>- for series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3, 5, 14, 39, 40, 43, 45, 93, and 502), current low values are indicated by JC>. Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. Series preceded by an asterisk (*) are included in the 1966 NBER "short list" of indicators. The V indicates revised: "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA , not available. 1 High value (63) was reached in November 1964. 2 High value (+6.6) was reached in December 1961. 31 Table 2A BASIC DATA MAY 1967 LATEST DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES-Continued bed NBER Leading Indicators— Continued Major Economic Process Minor Sensitive Commodity : Economic Process Prices Year and month PRICES, COSTS, AND PROFITS *19. Index of stock *23. Index of industrial materials prices® prices, 500 common stocks © (1957-59 = 100) Profits and Profit Margins Stock Prices (1941-43=10) *16, Corporate profits after taxes (Ann. rate, bit. dol ) 22. Ratio of profits to income originating, corporate, all industries (Percent) 18. Profits (before taxes) per dollar of sales, all manufacturing corporations *17. Ratio, price to unit labor cost index, manufacturing (Cents) (1957-59=100) 1965 January February March 110.6 110.7 113.2 86.12 86.75 86.83 43.' 8 13.'6 9.*6 102.9 102.9 103.1 April May June 116.7 116.9 115.3 87.97 89.28 85.04 43 '.8 12*.9 9*.3 103.5 103.5 104.4 July August September 114.6 115.2 114.8 84.91 86.49 89.38 44*.l 12.9 9*.4 104.8 104.7 103.9 October November December 1966 January February March 115.0 115.5 117.1 91.39 92.15 91.73 46 '.3 13^3 9.*5 103.8 103.8 104.8 120.5 122.9 fi^*123. 5 g>93.32 92.69 88.88 48! 7 6> 13^3 £> 9 ^ 8 104.8 105.0 105.2 April May June 121.5 118.3 118.4 91.60 86.78 86.06 jfc>48!7 13!! 9.*3 104.8 105.2 105.3 July August September 118.8 111.7 108.9 85.84 80.65 77.81 48.2 •12.B 9!2 October November December 106.3 105.9 105.8 77.13 80.99 81.33 48.1 12.6 9^6 January February March 106.8 105.2 102.5 84.45 87.36 89.42 P45.3 pll.8 (NA) April May June 100.1 X 99.0 K> 105.9 105.3 104.7 104.6 103.6 103.6 1967 2 90.96 92.09 102.4 rlOl.8 rl01.5 pl01.2 July August September October November December NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ®. Current high values are indicated by[[t>; for series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3, 5, 14, 39, 40, 43, 45, 93, and 502), current low values are indicated by E>. Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. Series preceded by an asterisk (*) are included in the 1966 NBER "short list" of indicators. The V indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available, /Average for May 17, 18, and 19. * 3 Average for May 18, 19, and 22. 32 Table 2A bed BASIC DATA MAY 1967 LATEST DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES-Continued NBER Leading Indicators—Continued Major Economic Process Minor Economic Process MONEY AND CREDIT Flows of Money and Credit 98, Change in money supply and time deposits Year and month (Ann. rate, percent) 1965 January February March +8.76 +8.76 +7.44 Credit Difficulties 33. Net change *113. Net change 112. Change in 85. Change in total U.S. money in morgage debt in consumer inbusiness loans supply held by fin. inst. stallment debt and life insurance companies1 (Ann. rate, bil.dol.) (Ann. rate, percent) 0.00 +0.72 +3.72 : (Ann. rate, bil.dol.) +7.38 (Ann. rate, bil. dolJ 110. Total private borrowing 14. Current lia- 39. Delinquency bilities of busirate, 30 days ness failures2 and over, total installment loans' (Ann. rate, mil, doL) (Mif.dol.) +7.16 +7.70 +9.90 +12.67 +11.34 62,100 84.54 107.57 146.29 +23.14 B> +8.94 +7.87 +7.14 +7*68 +10.38 +10.09 69,232 79.51 139.09 135.66 +20.57+18.80 +21.01 April May June +8.16 +4.08 +10.56 +5.28 -2.28 +7.44: July August September +9.72 +10.80 +10.68 +5.16 +4.44 +8.04 +19.85 +21.19 +22,03 +8.69 +7.87 +8,23 +14-12 +5.39 +7.87 64,688 120.64 128.98 108.56 October November December 1966 January February March +12.60 +8,52 +11.52 +8.04 +2.88 +11.64 +20.76 +21.70 +22.76 +7.44 +8.39 +7.61 +7.45 +6.96 +5.30 67,836 85.67 66.65 128.06 +5.76 +1.44 +7.80 +22,96 +23.22 +22.43 +7.16 +6.46 +7.79 +13.72 +6.24 +8.77 r66,924 111.67 94.59 98.73 April May June +13.20 +3.36 +10.08 +11.28 -4.92 +6.36 +20.52 +17.75 r+15.17 +6.37 +5.92 +6.59 +8.48 +9.59 r+17.69 §£> r77,784 106.93 92.41 111.23 July August September +0.36 +4.80 +'5.16 -10.56 0.00 +6.36 r+13.09 +12.82 +11.47 +6.77 +7.22 +5.70 g> r+21.11 +3.28 +0.67 r56,320 62.84 159.29 128.77 October November December 1967 January February March -4.44 -1.44 +8.52 -6.36 -2.88 +7.80 +10.15 +10,06 +7.15 +4.56 +5.33 +3.85 +5.93 +2.63 +0.14 r50,524 128.02 116.90 194.09 +6.60 +12.72 g> r+16.20 -4.92 +5.64 g>r+l6.92 +14.16 r+12.13 p+11.75 +3.36 +2.59 +3.17 +6.01 r+0.86 r+6.83 p60,372 p+4.56 P-4.92 (NA) P+9.25 +6.48; +3.36 +7.92 April May June July August September .-,: +20.11 +19.67 (NA) ! (Percent) 1.77 1.71 I.U 1.82 1.85 l!65 i'.72 1.78 ll76 l!?6 1.79 l!75 118.61 111.23 108.87 l!82 110.80 (NA) * October November December NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. ..Unadjusted series are indicated by ® . Currenthigh values are indicated by^>; forseriesthat move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3, 5, 14, 39, 40, 43, 45, 93, and 502),\current low values are indicated by Series numbers are for identification ,only and do net-reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. Series preceded by an asterisk (*} are included in the 1966 NBER "short list" of indicators, The V indicates revised: "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available. 1 High value (24.02)- was reached in October 1963. High value (52.86) was reached in August 1963. 3 High value (1.57) was reached in May 1963. 3 33 Table 2B BASIC DATA MAY 1967 LATEST DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES-Continued NBER Roughly Coincident Indicators Major Economic ProcBss Minor Economic Process Year and month EMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT 511. Man-hours in nonfarm establishments, all employees *41. Number of employees in nonagricultural establishments 42. Total nonagricultural employment, labor force survey *43. Unemployment rate, total 45. Average weekly insured unemployment rate, State1 programs 40. Unemployment rate, married males (1957-59=100) (Ann. rate, bil. man-hours) (Thous.) (Thous.) (Percent) (Percent) (Percent) 301. Nonagricul- 46. Index of tural job openhelp-wanted advertising in ings unfilled newspapers (Thous.) Comprehensive Unemployment Comprehensive Employment Job Vacancies 1965 January February March 268 267 270 137 145 148 123.22 123.98 124.44 59,489 59,777 60,072 65,841 65,863 66,150 4.8 5.0 4.7 3.3 3.3 3.2 2.7 2.6 2.5 April May June 279 285 280 143 145 146 124.11 124.68 124.75 60,152 60,363 60,623 66,109 66,169 66,582 4.8 4.6 4.6 3.1 3.0 2.9 2.5 2.5 2.4 July August September 285 313 338 145 152 160 124.96 125.87 126.14 60,841 61,021 61,180 67,061 66,961 67,017 4.5 4.4 4.4 3.0 3.0 2.9 2.3 2.5 2.2 October November December 1966 January February March 354 359 378 168 181 186 126.59 127.49 128.30 61,437 61,864 62,241 67,197 67,681 67,950 4.3 4.1 4.0 2.7 2.6 2.6 2.1 2.0 1.9 392 403 428 128.70 129.75 130.72 62,469 62,811 63,247 68,266 68,186 68,153 3.9 3.7 3.8 2.6 2.6 2.3 1.9 1.9 1.9 April May June 430 425 421 189 185 184 130.07 130.26 131.66 63,350 63,517 63,983 68,343 68,351 68,749 3.7 3.9 3.9 2.1 2.1 2.1 1.8 1.8 1.9 420 426 g>438 186 189 189 131.44 132,18 131.84 64,072 64,199 64,168 68,920 69,206 69,309 3.9 3.8 3.7 2.4 2.4 2.1 2.0 2.0 1.9 433 417 406 193 194 193 132.26 133-12 133.08 64,466 64,823 65,076 69,420 70,005 69,882 g>3'.5 3.7 *>£? 2.4 1.9 1.7 1.7 393 374 364 189 190 rl84 rl34.03 r!33.52 r!33.50 65,381 r 65, 497 r65,513 70,240 te>70,247 69,892 3.7 3.7 3.6 2.4 2.4 2.6 1.7 B> 1.6 1.7 P353 piai P133.16 B>P65,611 70,020 3,7 2.6 1.9 July August September October November December 1967 January February March April May June 184 191 B> 201 fi> July August September October , November December NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicatedby ®. Current high values are indicated by(FC>; forseriesthat move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3, 5, 14, 39, 40, 43, 45, 93, and 502), current low values are indicated by [tt>r. Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. Series preceded by an asterisk (*) are included in the 1966 NBER "short list" of indicators. The V indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available, x Data exclude Puerto Rico which is included in figures published by source agency. 34 Table 2B bed BASIC DATA MAY 1967 LATEST DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES-Continued NBER itmaghl^ Coincident Indicators—Continued Major SONSUNTON, JIID TRADE MinOS* • 49, Gross national product in current dollars Year and month (Ann. rate, bil.dol.) 1965 January February March 660 '8 *50. Gross na- *47. Index of intional product dustrial producin 1958 dollars tion (Ann. rate, bil.dol.) Ciipnlieisiivi Consumption and Trace Comprehensive income £ompr§SiiJ»i Pr®ftaets®i Economic ftoces (1957-59=100) ••138.8 139.6 HO. 9 60(X3 *52. Personal income *816. Manufacturing and trade sales 53. Wages and salaries in mining, manufacturing, and construction (Ann. rate, bil.dol.) (Ann. rate, bil.dol.) 516,7 517.3 520.1 : 137.0 138.5 139.3 (Mil.dol.) : 57. Final sales *54. Sales of re(series 49 minus tail stores series 21) (Ann. rate, bil. dot.) (Mil.dol.) 76,867 76,558 : 78,734 651^4 22,936 23,076 22,856 138.5 140.0 141.0 78,330 78,643 1 78,805 665/3 22,84C) 23,31'' 23,322 141.3 142.4 80,776 79,685 79,610 677^8 I 23,66£ 23,585 23,753 H4.2 146,5 : 147.8 80,655 82,214 83,591 694.' 6 24,330 24,647 24,704 149.3 151.1 152.6 84,727 84,530 86,991 712.3 25,081 25,049 25,536 April May June 67.^9. 607,8 July August September 686^5 6is!a 144.3 144-9 144.1 October November December 704^4 631,2 145.5 146.7 : 149.0 547.2 553.2 558.2 721 [a 640^5 150.6 152.4 560.2 564.7 569.0 •732.3" 643! 5 153.9 155.3 156.5 ' 570.5 573.0 577.2 153.2 154.0 : ' 155.3 85,455 85,426 86,957 72o!o 24,949 24,475 25,394 157.2 158,0 157.7 580.0 585.4 590,0 : : : : i55.4 , 157.1 158.0 86,678 86,995 86,775 735!4 25,362 25,572 25,703 158.9 158.6 |> 159.0 594.4 598.5 601.8 158.9 159.7 160.2 87,066 86,699 K> 37,875 742*.9 25,550 25,610 25,368 rl58,l: rl56,4 156.4 r607.,l r609.3 r6l2.7 K> 161.2 160.2 • 160.6 87,386 r 86, 299 p87,371 |f> r758!l 25,687 r 25, 470 g> r25,771 P155.9 8>p6l4.i; pl60.2 1966 January February March April May June • 141.0 HI. 8 ; : : 745:3 October November December 759^3 649 '<2 :1 'Its* 65?! 2== 3*i ; : : : 153.7 .".. July August September U 522.5 528.0 532.2 ] : 535.4 537.8 552.5 ; 142,7 :. 1967 January February March April Mav June g> r763*.7 r656/7 I (NA) p25,667 ! ....... July August September October., November December NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ® . Current high values are indicated bytB>- forsertesthatmove counter to movements in general business activity (series 3, 5, 14, a, 40, 43, 45, 93, and 502),current low values are indicated ty te> Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. Series- preceded by an asterisk (*) are included in the 1966 NBER "short list" of indicators, The V indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a , anticipated; and m , not available. 35 Table 2B BASIC DATA MAY 1967 LATEST DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES-Continued bed NBER Roughly Coincident Indicators—Continued Major Economic Process Minor Economic Process Year and month FIXED CAPITAL INVESTMENT PRICES, COSTS, AND PROFITS Backlog of Investment Commitments Comprehensive Wholesale Prices 96. Manufacturers' unfilled orders, durable goods industries (Bil.dol.) 97, Backlog of capital appropriations, manufacturing 55. Index of wholesale prices, industrial commodities® (Bil.dol.) (1957-59=100) (1957-59=100) 58. Index of wholesale prices, manufactured goods ® MONEY AND CREDIT Bank Reserves Money Market Interest Rates 93. Free reserves ® 114, Treasury bill rate® 116. Corporate bond yields ® (Mil.dol.) (Percent) (Percent) 115, Treasury 117. Municipal bond yields® bond yields © (Percent) (Percent) Revised1 1965 January February March 54.28 55.09 55.53 April May June 56.37 56.88 57.45 July August September 57.83 58.15 59.38 October November December 1966 January February March 60.66 61.44 62.53 April May June 68.25 69.61 71.31 July August September 72/65 73.29 75.59 October November December . . , 1967 January February March. . April May June 63.80 65.11 66.76 76.38 76.17 fc>76.42 75.43 r75.13 r74.20 P73.95 101.8 101.8 101.8 +106 +36 -75 3.83 3.93 3.94 4.45 4.45 4.49 4.14 4.16 13*85 101.9 101.9 102.0 4.15 3.06 3.09 3.18 15.26 102,1 102.3 102.5 102.1 102.4 103.0 -105 -180 -182 3.93 3.90 3.81 4.48 4.52 4.57 4.15 4.14 4.H 3.15 3.17 3.24 16*37' 102.5 102.7 102.7 103.1 103.2 103.2 -174 -134 -144 3.83 3.84 3.91 4.57 4.66 4.71 4.15 4.19 4.25 * 3.27 3.24 3.35 17.72 102.8 103.2 103.2 103.4 103.7 104.1 -146 -83 -2 4.03 4.08 4.36 4.70 4.75 4.92 4.28 4.34 4.43 3.40 3.46 3.54 18*59 103.5 103.8 104.0 104.4 104.9 105.0 -44 -107 -246 4.60 4.67 4.63 4.93 5.09 5.33 4.43 4.61 4.63 3.52 3.64 3.72 20! 31 104.3 104.7 104.9 105.1 105.5 105.6 -268 -352 -352 4.61 4.64 4.54 5.38 5.55 5.67 4.55 4.57 4.63 3.56 3.65 3.77 20.54 105.2 105.2 105.2 106.0 106.4 106.4 -362 -390 -368 4.86 4.93 5.36 4.75 £>4.80 4.79 3.95 4.12 £>4.12 g>20.72 105.3 105.5 105.5 106.3 106.2 106.2 6.04 6.11 5.98 4.70 4.74 4.65 3.94 3.86 3.86 p2o'.32 105.8 106.0 106.0 106.4 B>106.4 106.3 -16 -4 r+236 4.76 4.55 4.29 5.53 5.35 5.55 4.40 4.47 4.45 3.54 3.52 3.55 106.2 p+175 3.85 5.59 4.51 3.60 |C> 106.0 8> -431 B> 5.39 -222 5.34 5.01 -165 5.81 6.04 |£>6.U July August September October November December NOTE; Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ©. Current high values are indicated byE>; for series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3, 5, 14, 39, 40, 43, 45, 93, and 502), current low values are indicated by B>. Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. Series preceded by an asterisk (*) are included in the 1966 NBER "short list" of indicators. The V indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available, •"•See "New Features and Changes for This Issue," page v. 36 Table 2C bed BASIC DATA MAY 1967 LATEST DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES-Continued NBER Lagging Indicators Major Economic Process Minor Economic Process Year and month EMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT FIXED CAPITAL INVESTMENT INVENTORIES AND INVENTORY INVESTMENT Long-Duration Unemployment ~ Investment Expenditures Inventories *502. Unemployment rate, persons unemployed 15 weeks and over *61. Business expenditures on new plant and equipment, total 505. Machinery and equipment sales and business construction expenditures *71. Manufacturing and trade inventories, book value (Percent) (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) (Ann. rate, bil, dol.) (Bil. dol.) 1965 January February March 1.2 1.1 April May June 1.1 1,0 1.1 July August September 0.9 1.0 1,0 October November December 1966 January February March 0.9 0.9 0,9 ' " 5 5 .'35 0.8 0.8 0.8 ' : '58!66 1.1 .., 65, Manufacturers1 inventories of finished goods, book value (Bil. dol.) 60.01 60.66 63.24 112.10 112.42 113.66 22.36 22.43 22.51 50. '35 63.12 62.73 62.87 114.39 115.09 115.74 22.29 22.36 22.34 52.75 64.8! 62.89 65.27 116.70 117.71 117.91 22.55 22.53 22.61 65.74 67,47 69.94 118.43 119.28 120.90 22.66 22.86 23.14 70.32 69.74 72.67 121.57 122.54 123.63 23.45 23.62 23.81 6o!io 71.34 70.52 : 72.01 124.70 126.18 127.58 23.84 24.07 24.14 49.'66 : : April May June 0.8 0.7 0.6 July August September 0.6 0.6 0.6 61 !25 73.57 73.39 74.39 128.71 130.04 130.84 24.50 24.67 24.88 October November December 1967 January February March 0.7 0.6 0.6 fE> 62.80 74.18 73.84 UJ2 132.39 133.86 135.55 25.08 25.54 26.00 0.6 0.6 0.6 a62!60 g> 75.80 75.44 p75.H 136.59 r!36.78 jj£> P136.94 26.40 r26.67 g>p26.84 April May June • * •• (NA) &>0.6 (NA) (NA) a62*.25 July.... August September October November December NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicatedby ® . Currenthigh values are indicated by(Bt>- for series that move counter to movements in general business activity {series 3, 5, 14, 39, 40, 43, 45, 93, and 502), current low values are indicated by E>. Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. Series preceded by an asterisk (*) are included in the 1966 NBER "short list" of indicators. The V indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e" estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA , not available. 37 Table 2C BASIC DATA MAY 1967 LATEST DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES-Continued bed NBER Lagging Indicators—Continued Major Economic Process Minor Economic Process Unit Labor Costs : Year and month 1965 January February March *62. Index of labor cost per unit of butput, manufacturing 66. Consumer installment debt (Dollars) (1957-59=100) (Mil. dol.) .662 .666 July.... August September .665 .665 .673 April May June .684 July August September .692 October November December 1967 January February March. April May .; June .696 B>P-713 Interest Rates on Business Loans and Mortgages Outstanding Debt 68. Labor cost (cur. dol.)per unit of gross product (1958 dol.), nonfinancial corporations April May June October November December 1966 January February March MONEY AND CREDIT PRICES, COSTS, AND PROFITS *72. Commercial and industrial loans outstanding, weekly reporting large commercial banks (Mil. dol.) 98.9 98.9 98.7 60,069 60,666 61,308 44,175 45,205 98.6 98.9 98.7 62,053 62,709 63,304 46,793 47,497 48,764 98.4 98.6 99.3 64,028 64,684 65,370 49,129 49,840 50,478 99.6 99.9 99.3 65,990 66,689 67,323 50,946 51,346 52,174 99.6 99.9 99.8 67,920 68,458 69,107 53,223 53,715 54,491 100.3 100.3 100.3 69,638 70,131 70,680 55,086 56,102 r57 f 842 100.1 101.0 101.6 71,244 71,846 72,321 59,348 58,982 59,349 101.6 102.5 102.5 72,701 73,145 73,466 59,879 60,010 59,732 103.9 rl04.5 r!04.7 73,746 73,962 g> 74,226 60,754 60,525 61,167 B>pl04.9 (NA) 46,170 |£>p62,407 *67, Bank rates on short-term business loans, 19 cities © 118. Mortgage yields, residential® (Percent) (Percent) 4*.97 5.45 5.45 5.45 4.*99 5.45 5.45 5.44 5^66 5.44 5.45 5.46 5*.27 5.49 5.51 5.62 5.*55 5.70 (NA) 6.00 i.S2 (NA) 6.32 6.45 6.30 6.51 6.58 6.63 E> 6.'31 (NA) g>6.8l 6.77 *6.13 6.62 6.46 6.35 6.29 July August September October November December NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement, Unadjusted series are indicatedby ©. Currenthigh values are indicated by B>; for series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3, 5, 14, 39, 40, 43, 45, 93, and 502), current low values are indicated by E>. Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order, Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover, Series preceded by an asterisk (Tare included in the 1966 NBER "short list" of indicators. The V indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available. 1 This figure is based on data for 35 cities and refers to the middle of the month, therefore it is not comparable with earlier figures. 38 Table 2D bed BASIC DATA MAY 1967 LATEST DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES-Continued Other Selected U.S. Series Major PRICES, COSTS, Economic Process AND PROFITS Minor Comprehensive Economic Process Retail Prices 81. index of consumer prices ® Year and month (1957-59 = 100) FOREIGN TRADE AND PAYMENTS Foreign Trade and Payments 89. Excess of receipts (+) or payments (-) in U.S. balance of payments b. Official a. Liquidity balance basis settlements basis (Mil. dol.) (Mil. dol.) 88. Merchandise trade balance (series 86 minus series 87) (Mil. dol,) 86. Exports, ex- 861. Manufactur- 862. Index of export orders, cluding military ers' new orders aid shipments, for export, durable nonelectrical goods except mo- machinery total tor vehicles and parts ® (Mil. dol.) (Mil. dol.) (1957-59=100) 87. General imports, total (Mil. dol.) 1965 January February March 108,9 108.9 109.0 -697 -618 +28.5 +16.7 +878.0 1,227.5 1,622.7 2,738.9 603 729 694 228 235 242 1,199.0 1,606.0 1,860.9 April....... May.. June 109.3 109.6 110.1 +226 +239 +595.0 +502.7 +386.5 2,406,3 . 2,299.3 2,234.7 720 718 899 238 241 238 1,811.3 1,796.6 1,848.2 July August September 110.2 110.0 110*2 -534 +232 +557.7 +503.6 +433.3 2,299.5 2,328.9 2,291.3 829 785 722 241 245 231 1,741.8 1,825.3 1,858.0 October November December 1966 January February March 110. 4 -332 -1,158 +464.5 +437.5 +451.1 2,349.3 2,378.1 2,362.2 705 891 984 228 234 233 1,884.8 1,940.6 1,911.1 111.0 111.6 112.0 r-432 +326.6 +368.6 +500,9 2,274.2 2,373.7 2,568.6 852 849 904 237 201 227 1,947.6 r-640 April May June 112.5 112.6 112.9 r-112 r-165 +250.0 +348.2 +354.5 2,358.9 2,410.8 2,489,5 749 976 1,078 195 217 217 2,108.9 2,062.6 2,135.0 July August September 113.3 113,8 114,1 r-164 r+870 +251.4 +342.4 +240.4 2,456,0 2,455.0 2,541.6 805 826 1,059 201 199 200 2,204.6 2,112.6 2,301.2 114.5 114,6 114,7 r-451: F-29 +320.3 +294.7 +183.5 2,582.7 2,486.2 2,414.7 865 785 1,200 240 235 225 2,262.4 2,191.5 2,231.2 +324.6 +397.1 +385.8 2,620.2 2,601.2 2,570.5 891 r833 p897 234 p240 2,295.6 2,204.1 2,lfc4.7 +436.0 2,660.0 (NA) (NA) 2,224.0 110.6 111.0 : October November December 1967 January. February March : 114*7 , 114.8 115.6 115,3 April May June July August September : : p-539 P-M32 - r!96 2,005.1 2,067.7 ; October November December NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ® , Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order, Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available. 39 Table 20 BASIC DATA MAY 1967 LATEST DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES-Continued bed Other Selected U.S. Series—Continued Major Economic Process Minor Economic Process Year and month 1965 January.... February March FEDERAL GOVERNMENT ACTIVITIES Federal Government Activities 95. Federal 84. Federal surplus (+) cash surplus (+), ordeficit(-), or deficit (-) national income and product account (Ann, rate, (Ann. rate, bil.dol.) bil.dol.) +4*. 5 101. National 91. Defense 83. Federal 82. Federal cash receipts cash payments defense pur- Department obchases, cur- ligations, total from the pub- to the public rent dollars lic 99. New 90. Defense Department ob- orders, defense products ligations, procurement 92, Military prime contract awards to U.S. business firms (Ann. rate, bil.dol.) (Ann. rate, bil.dol.) -11.1 -4.6 H0.9 117.6 48.' 2 +10.4 128.2 122.0 122.2 117.8 4,278 3,839 4,624 1,005 700 1,355 2.37 2.44 2.46 1,830 1,628 1,874 (Ann. rate, bil.dol.) (MIL dot.) (Mil.dol.) (Bil.dol.) (Mil.dol.) April May June +4.4 +18.8 -11.2 -4.6 144.4 118.1 129.3 125.6 129.3 133.9 49.'l 4,593 4,630 4,520 1,444 1,402 1,254 3.24 2.46 2.58 2,926 2,025 2,438 July August September -2^5 -3.4 -3.8 -10.3 116.1 125.0 126.6 119.5 128.8 136.9 50.7 4,258 5,223 5,276 1,128 1,741 1,732 2.62 2.81 3,45 2,699 2,770 2,465 -o!a -10.7 -16.7 -1.6 113.6 129.6 125.0 124.3 146.3 126.6 52.5 4,962 4,896 5,669 1,733 1,212 1,882 3.28 2.57 2.53 2,566 2,679 2,938 +2*.3 -22.6 -5.4 -10.7 124.3 137.1 142.8 146.9 142.5 153.5 54.' 6 5,100 5,179 5,879 1,639 1,736 1,904 3.40 3.04 3.38 2,755 2,830 2,640 April May June +3^8 +15.8 -16.2 +44.4 155.2 137.7 182.9 139.4 153.9 138.5 57!l 6,444 ^5,447 7,084 2,109 1,620 2,415 3.30 2.91 3.68 3,183 2,968 3,545 July August September -6 .'5 -9.5 -26.5 -8.5 154.8 127.7 153.5 164.3 154.2 162.0 62!6 4,998 7,215 6,579 1,753 2,251 1,866 3.50 3.16 4.67 3,912 2,978 r3,380 -3*.6 +12.8 -32.1 +7.0 156.6 132.1, 152.9 143.8 164.2 145.9 65 .*5 6,059 5,989 6,023 1,931 1,723 1,937 3.31 2.73 3.36 3,303 2,967 r3,5QO p-l6".3 +27.1 -15.3 -15.3 177.0 136.8 152.3 149.9 152.1 167.6 r69\7 6,518° 6,595 6,343 2,296 2,140 1,903 2.85 r3.33 r3.24 3,109 r3,880 2,662 {NA) (NA) P3.24 (NA) October November December 1966 January February March October November December 1967 January February March , April May June (NA) (NA) (NA) July August September October November December NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by © . Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover, The V indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA" r not available, 40 Table 2E bed BASIC DATA MAY 1967 LATEST DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES-Continued International Comparisons Major Economic Process Minor Economic Process Year and month INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION INDEXES Industrial Production Indexes 47. United States, index of industrial production 123, Canada, index of industrial production 122. United Kingdom, index of industrial production 121. OECD,1 European countries, index of industrial production (1957-59 = 100) (1957-59 = 100) (1957-59=100) (1957-59=100) (1957-59=100) 142 141 143 130 129 123 142 142 143 129 128 144 147 14B 149 151 153 1965 January February March ; ; April May June 141 142 143 x; July August September 144" • 145 144 : October November December 1966 January February March 146 •• 147 •149 ,,. : April May June -. July August September 151 152 154 154 155V1 156 : : " :: 157 158 159; it. 153 155 156 156 156 : 156 .,-• : .;. 159 160 159 159 r!59 158 156 156 p!59 (NA) 159 . (1957-59=100) (1957-59=100) 166 169 166 239 239 244 148 148 :1:54 154 155 140 139 142 169 175 176 241 238 244 130 129 128 148 148 149 ..151 153 155 144 144 144 178 176 178 243 240 247 130 130 131 150 150 151 156 154 154 147 147 150 179 184 183 241 244 246 156 155 146 149 151 r!86 186 189 252 251 255 : , : 146 ,:, " 151 151 153 :160 1 2 9 153 153 154 160 157 '•161 150 150 152 189 196 196 259 262 268 132 132 129 154 153 153 158 151 155 154 154 154 196 199 201 274 277 283 155 153 156 156 •200 r201 r201 284 290 296 131 130 131 •• (1957-59=100) 137 139 139 . 146 146 144 ; " 133 • „: 126. France, 127, Italy, index 128. Japan, inindex of indus- of industrial pro- dex of industrial trial production duction production 156 155 149 128 154 156;V; 157 158" October November December 1967 January February March April May June 139 140 141 125, West Germany, index of industrial production 130 0 128 ,) 127 : 128 ; 129 P128 (NA) p!56 ; : • rl52 152 153 152 p!52 (NA) •153 151 149 148 p!48 (NA) - 156 r!54 (NA) 203 p206 (NA) r303 298 p306 (NA) July August September October November December NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain no seasonal movement, Unadjusted series are indicated by ® . Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order, Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. The V indicates revised; V. preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available. 1 Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development. 41 Section TWO ANALYTICAL MEASURES charts and tables DISTRIBUTION OF 'HIGHS' FOR CURRENT AND COMPARATIVE PERIODS DIFFUSION INDEXES BASED ON HUNDREDS OF COMPONENTS Average workweek—21 industries New orders—36 industries Capital appropriations—17 industries Profits—700 companies Stock prices—77 industries Industrial materials prices—13 materials State unemployment claims—47 areas Nonagricultural employment—30 industries Production—24 industries Wholesale prices— 22 industries Retail sales—23 types of stores Net sa/es—800 companies New orders—400 companies - Cdr/oad/ngs—19 commodity groups Plant and equipment expenditures—18 industries DIRECTIONS OF CHANGE FOR COMPONENTS OF DIFFUSION INDEXES Table 3 ANALYTICAL MEASURES bed MAY 1967 DISTRIBUTION OF "HIGHS" FOR CURRENT AND COMPARATIVE PERIODS Number of series that reached a high before benchmark datesNumber of months before benchmark date that high was reached Current expansion Jan. 1967 Business cycle peak Mar. 1967 Feb. 1967 Nov. 1948 Apr. 1967 July 1953 May 1960 July 1957 NBER LEADING INDICATORS 8 months or more c 7 months 6 months 5 months 4 months 3 months 2 months 1 month Benchmark month 19 1 3 20 3 19 14 1 1 1 30 0 24 1 1 1 2 1 2 *2 Number of series used Percent of series high on benchmark date 28 5 I 2 1 2 4 1 «v » * „ 4 2 4 2 4 2 14 4 1 20 30 0 1 21 0 29 7 24 0 26 4 29 0 29 0 NBER ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS 8 months or more 7 months 6 months 5 months 4 months 3 months 2 months 1 month Benchmark month Number of series used Percent of series high on benchmark date Number of months before benchmark date that high was reached 1 1 1 4 3 1 3 8 *1 4 3 1 3 2 6 21 38 21 29 1 1 3 3 1 3 2 3 4 21 19 20 15 Apr. 1957 Apr. 1953 4 2 1 4 1 3 4 7 3 4 4 4 3 18 17 21 19 21 3 3 2 3 2 18 11 3 1 1 1 5 3 14 6th month before business cycle peak 3d month before business cycle peak Aug. 1948 2 5 2 3 3 1 2 2 3 1 3 Jan. 1953 May 1948 Feb. 1960 Nov. 1959 Jan. 1957 NBER LEADING INDICATORS 8 months or more 7 months 6 months 5 months 17 1 4 3 months 2 months 1 month "i 4 i Number of series used Percent of series high on benchmark date 24 4 7 5 *3 1 5 1 2 2 26 8 25 1 2 1 18 4 I 1 1 1 1 2 ll 2 29 0 24 12 3 2 1 1 5 1 4 2 7 1 5 1 1 3 29 0 26 27 22 1 2 "i 2 *i 29 3 8 7 2 4 4 1 1 1 1 29 3 NBER ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS 8 months or more 6 months 5 months 4 months 2 months 1 month Benchmark month Number of series used Percent of series high on benchmark date 2 1 1 2 4 B 18 44 3 *1 2 1 6 8 18 44 1 1 5 5 4 2 21 10 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 5 8 21 38 2 "l 1 2 3 3 6 18 33 1 **i 4 2 4 10 2 1 10 4 18 56 21 19 2 6 3 1 3 2 4 21 19 NOTE: AH quarterly series are omitted from the distribution. The number of series included varies because some series are not available for all cycles and because those series which reached a peak during the Korean War are omitted from the 1953 distribution. 44 CHART2A bed ANALYTICAL MEASURES MAY 1967 DIFFUSION INDEXES FROM 1948 to PRESENT NBER Leading Indexes (Aug.] (Nov.] [Oct.) P T P (May) (Feb.) P T (July) (Apr.) P T T Percent 9 - m o . span — . Avg. workweek, prod, wkrs., mfg,-21 indus. 100 50 06. New orders, dur. goods indus.-36 indus. —i t O O - 011. Newly approved capital appropriations-17 indus., NICB (3-Q span— i-O span**- 034. Profits, FNCB of NY, percent reporting higher profrts-700 companies (1-Q span) 019. Stock prices, 500 common stocks- 77 indus. 023. Industrial materials prices-13 indus. mtls. 05. Initial claims, State unempl. insur.-47 areas (inverted) 1948 49 5® SI 52 53 §4 5S See 'Hew to Read Ctets 1 art 2,' page 4. Current dita for thess 56 57 9@ are shown m 59 @® 48 and 49. 45 CHART 2B ANALYTICAL MEASURES MAY 1967 bed DIFFUSION INDEXES FROM 1948 to PRESENT-Continued NBER Roughly Coincident Indexes (July) (Apr.) P T t (May) (Feb. P T Percent D47. Industrial production-24 indus. 058. Wholesale prices, mfrd. goads-22 Nidus. |6-tno. span— 1-mo. span- 054. Sates of retail stores-23 types of stores (f*t. SS 'Msw 1 46 5© 57 §8 39 series m sli@wn m pageiO, 6© 1-mo. span——] 61 62 63 85 ©6 67 1908 bed CHART 2C ANALYTICAL MEASURES MAY 1967 DIFFUSION INDEXES FROM 1948 to PRESENT-Continued Actual and Anticipated Indexes (July) (Aug.) P T (Nov.) (Oct.] P I (July! (Apr.) P T (May) (Feb.) P T Percent Actual Anticipated Htf ^es, jjUBteifflH gOTPfflfeS 14-0 100 -I 036. New orders, dur. goods mfrs.-400 companies 048. Cartoadiigs-19 mfrti. commodity groups (4-Qj^panj in total carloadings (millions of cars-4-Q spanl D61. New plant and equipment expend. -17-22 Indus. (1-Q span) Data are centered within spans. Latest data are as follows: 4© 5© SI 52 S3 Series number and date of survey Actual 035, 036 (Mar; 1967) D48 (Mar. 1967) D61 (Feb. 1967) i 1st Q WstQ 1967 2d Q 1965-2d Q 1966 •3d Q 1966-4th Q 1966 m S5 i@a$ Charts 1 and 2,' paga4. Current data far ttese 57 5§ Anticipated 59 '2d Q 1966|2d Q 1967 2d Q 1966-2d Q 1967 1st Q 1967-2d Q 1967 6© 61 m pags 51'. 47 Table 4A ANALYTICAL MEASURES MAY 1967 bed LATEST DATA FOR DIFFUSION INDEXES NBER Leading Indexes Year and month Dl. Average workweek, manufacturing (21 industries) 1-month span 9-month span 06. Value of manufacturers1 new orders, durable goods industries (36 industries) 1-month span 9-month span OIL Newly approved capital appropriations, NICB (17 industries) 1-quarter span 3-quarter span 1965 January February March 61.9 83.3 77.8 75.0 77.8 65 81.0 78.6 48.6 38.9 63.9 76 57.1 76.2 April May June 19.0 81.0 28.6 61.9 47.6 54.8 50.0 44.4 58.3 68.1 66.7 68.1 71 76 July August September 52.4 59.5 40.5 71.4 64.3 81.0 59.7 41.7 61.1 91.7 83.3 80.6 53 82 October November December 1966 January February March 71.4 81.0 54.8 95.2 92.9 83.3 61.1 55.6 76.4 81.9 86.1 83.3 59 71 57.1 69.0 40.5 83.3 76.2 31.0 30.6 50.0 84.7 75.0 75.0 66.7 65 76 April May June 50.0 50.0 33.3 35.7 45.2 35.7 41.7 50.0 51.4 72.2 58.3 59.7 53 53 July August September 21.4 61.9 64.3 38.1 9.5 19.0 50.0 59.7 37.5 55.6 44.4 41.7 32 41 October November December 1967 January February March 45.2 40.5 19.0 r9.5 r!9.0 pl6.7 50.0 44.4 55.6 r36.1 r29.2 P33.3 r41 P35 April May . . . June. 69.0 7.1 r76.2 31.9 38.9 r55.6 P47.6 p47.2 Ptf July August September October November December NOTE: Figures are the percent of series components rising and are centered within spans; 1-month indexes are placed on latest month and 9-month indexes are placed on the 6th month of span; 1-quarter indexes are placed on the 1st month of the 2d quarter and 3-quarter indexes are placed on nthe 1st month of the 3d quarter. Seasonally adjusted components are used. Table 5 identifies the components for most of the indexes shown. The V indicates revised; "p , preliminary; and "NA", not available. 48 Table 4A bed ANALYTICAL MEASURES MAY 1967 LATEST DATA FOR DIFFUSION INDEXES—Continued NBER Leading indexes-Continued D34. Profits, manufacturing, FNCB 019. Index of stock prices, 500 common D23. Index of industrial materials prices (around 700 corpora(13 industrial materials; stocks (77 industries)® tions) Year and month 1-quarter span 1965 January February March April May June 1-month span •=•". 64.3 56 70.8 66.9 * July August September .'.. : 57 •:• October November December : 8lv:8 ;. . 53.8 o.b : 24.7 79.9 • 81»;;2 .r. ; 1 -month span 9-month span 24.5 69.2 57.4 66.0 78.7 78.7 59.6 58.4 72.7 67.5 76. ^ 53.8 57.7 69.2 53.8 53.8 61.7 59*6 51.1 66.0 61.7 78.7 61.0 59.1 46.2 42.3 ,-50.0 46.2 46.2 46.2 34*0 38.3 78.7 80.9 87,2 70.2 60.4 67.5 70.1 15.4 34.6 61.5 46.2 38.5 53.8 57.4 44.7 51.1 62.8 •91.5 95.7 58.4. 51.9 ^ 9-month span 69.2 76.9 61.5 80.5 92.2 57 1-month span 9-month span D5. Initial claims for unemployment insurance, State programs, week including the 12th (47 areas) *: , 30.8 63.6 60 66.9 70.1 57.1 •' - •••• 59- 74,0 48.7 •„ 14.3 51.9 43.5 37.7 61.5 76.9 46.2 53.8 61.5 61.5 38.3 • 44.7 83.0 91.5 74,5 44.7 22.1 : 1966 January February March. .. .;, April May June 59, 63.6 3.9 23.4 11.7 6.5 30.8 42.3 46.2 53.8 30.8 15.4 53.2 45.7 57.4 68.1 76.6 78.7 July August September 50 38.3 6.5 3.9 9.7 22.1 20.1 61.5 26.9 0.0 7.7 7.7 7.7 17.0 73.3 80.9 80.9 34.0 34.0 October November December 54 47.4 58.4 66.2 19.2 30.8 57.7 0.0 0.0 0,0 36.2 46.8 27.7 23.4 17.0 54.3 o.o 55.3 17.0 46.8 : 25^3 88.3 59; 7 ; • : 1967 January February March 48 April May . . June July August September . . October November December ..... 90.9 92.2 61.0 46.2 53.8 23.1 76.0 23.1 U6.2 x 59.6 NOTE: Figures are the percent of series components rising and are centered within spans: 1-month indexes are placed on latest month and J-rnqnth. indexes are placed on the 6th month of span; 1-quarter indexes are placed on the 1st month of the 2nd quarter. Seasonally adjusted components are used except in index D19 which requires no" adjustment and index D34 which is adjusted only for the index. Table 5 identifies the components for most of the indexes shown. The V indicates revised; V, preliminary; and "NA", not available, Unadjusted series are indicated by © . 1 Average for May 17, 18, and 19. 49 Table 4B ANALYTICAL MEASURES MAY 1967 bed LATEST DATA FOR DIFFUSION INDEXES—Continued NBER Roughly Coincident Indexes D41. Number of employees in nonagrtcultural establishments (30 industries) Year and month 047. Index of industrial production (24 industries) 058. Index of wholesale prices (22 manufacturing industries)® D54. Sales of retail stores (23 types of stores) 1-month span 6-month span 1-month span 6-month span 1-month span 6-month span 1-month span 73.3 70.0 86.7 81.7 78.3 80.0 79.2 70.8 77.1 83.3 85.4 87.5 72.7 52.3 65,9 81.8 86.4 81.8 63.0 65.2 30.4 80.4 87.0 87.0 April. ........... May June 63.3 63.3 88.3 80.0 81.7 75.0 56.2 70.8 91.7 83.3 83.3 79.2 72.7 75.0 61.4 79.5 70.5 63.6 54.3 87.0 43.5 73.9 87.0 87.0 JU|y 88.3 70.0 71.7 88.3 91.7 93.3 81.2 75.0 54.2 87.5 91.7 87.5 50.0 56.8 61.4 65.9 65.9 77.3 80.4 47.8 73.9 95.7 91.3 95.7 October November December 1966 January February March 88.3 93.3 86.7 90.0 95.0 93.3 79.2 83.3 87.5 87.5 89.6 100.0 70.5 70.5 70.5 88.6 90.9 90.9 78.3 78.3 37.0 95.7 95.7 91.3 85.0 85.0 91.7 95.0 91.7 86.7 70.8 70.8 87.5 95.8 91.7 87.5 79.5 75.0 72.7 88.6 95.5 93.2 76.1 65.2 60.9 82.6 84.8 78.3 April May June 73.3 76.7 91.7 85.0 81.7 73.3 64.6 58.3 87.5 70.8 75.0 62.5 70.5 86.4 75.0 95.5 95.5 86.4 43.5 30.4 95.7 78.3 82.6 78.3 July August September 48.3 73.3 23.3 75.0 75.0 71.7 45.8 60.4 39.6 64.6 58.3 52.1 72.7 54.5 47.7 72.7 72.7 63.6 47.8 47.8 60.9 76.1 65.2 82.6 October November December 1967 January February March 75.0 88.3 63.3 83.3 r70.0 r68.3 60.4 50.0 58.3 r62.5 r50,0 r43.8 63.6 63.6 54.5 63.6 72,7 72.7 43.5 69.6 41.3 r87.0 82.6 p65.2 73.3 36.7 r45.0 P56.7 r33.3 r25.0 r45.8 p37*5 77.3 72.7 56.8 63.6 87.0 r39.1 r52.2 1965 January February March ». . August September April May pa. 7 pa. 7 47.7 9-month span P54.3 June July August September October November December NOTE: Figures are the percent of series components rising and are centered within spans: 1-month indexes are placed on latest month, ,6-month indexes are placed on the 4th month, and 9-month indexes are placed on the 6th month of span. Seasonally adjusted components are used except in index 058 which requires no adjustment. Table 5 identifies the components for the indexes shown. The Y indicates revised; wp", preliminary;'and "NA", not available. Unadjusted series are indicated by ®. 50 Table 4C bed MAY ANALYTICAL MEASURES 1967 LATEST DATA FOR DIFFUSION INDEXES—Continued and Anticipated Indexes Year and month D35. Net sales, manufactures {800 companies) ® D36. New orders, durable manufactures (400 companies) ® D48. Freight carloadings {19 manufactured commodity groups) ® D61. New plant and equipment expenditures (18 industries) 4-quarter span 4-quarter span 4-ouarter span 1-quarter span Anticipated Actual 1965 January.. . February March '90 ,*8$ =. "as *88 July August September *88 '90 October November December *89 91 January February March *87 April . May June *si April May June Anticipated Actual Actual Anticipated Change in total (000) *90 *84 63^ 84.2 +25 '-88; "&i 63.2 .84,2 4-20 *89 '87 7-3.7 73 1.7 +28 Csa "96 73.7 89 ! 5 .+18 *91 *85 *89 (NA) si! 2 +20 "$$ *82 *83 78!9 '+1 *84 *68 *82 78!9 -50 *80 .52.6,. : =• ^ Actual Anticipated 56.2 65.6 75.0 68.8 83.3 65.6 75.0 84.4 83.3 62.5 83.3 71.9 55.6 37.5 75.0 65.6 (NA) 50.0 1966 July August ... September . . : "72 ... October November December "al 1967 January February March 52.8 April May June July August September October November December -. NOTE: Figures are the percent of placed in the 1st month of the 2d quarter. Unadjusted series are indicated by ® ies components rising and are centered within spans: 4-quarter indexes are centered in the middle quarter; 1-ouarter indexes are sasonally adjusted components are used for series D61. The "r" indicates revised; -"p", preliminary; an(T"NA'f, not available. 51 Table 5A ANALYTICAL MEASURES bed MAY 1967 SELECTED DIFFUSION INDEXES AND COMPONENTS Basic Data 1966 1967 1966 Diffusion index title and components Mar. Apr, May June July Dec. Jan. Feb.r Mar. Apr. P Average weekly hours Dl. AVERAGE WORKWEEK OF PRODUCTION WORKERS, MANUFACTURING1 (21 industry components) Ad manufacturing industries Durable goods industries: Ordnance and accessories Lumber and wood products Furniture and fixtures Stone, clay, and glass products Primary metal industries Fabricated metal products Machinery, except electrical ; Electrical machinery Transportation equipment Instruments and related products Miscellaneous manufacturing industries Nondurable goods industries: Food and kindred products Tobacco manufactures Textile mill products Apparel and related products Paper and allied products Printing and publishing Chemicals and allied products Petroleum and related products Rubber and plastic products Leather and leather products 41.5 41.5 41.5 41.3 41.0 40.9 41.0 40.3 40.4 40.5 42.0 42.2 42.7 40.6 41.0 41.5 41.6 42.1 42.1 40.2 40.5 42.4 41.5 42.2 42.1 40.3 40.8 42.1 41.8 42.3 43.6 40.8 41.7 41.7 40.0 41.5 40.3 40.1 41.5 40.8 r41.7 r40.8 r40,2 r41.7 r40.7 r41.5 42.9 39.9 40.7 40.9 38.7 41.6 40.7 39.9 41.1 40.0 41.1 42.5 39.7 41.5 41.2 39.5 41.2 38.6 41.0 36.7 43.2 41.0 37.5 40.1 35.6 42.7 38.9 41.8 41.8 41.4 38.4 38.5 41.4 42.8 40.7 37.1 r38.5 a. 9 42.1 41.8 42.4 41.4 42.0 41.8 42.2 42.4 42.4 42.4 42.1 40.5 41.8 41.9 42.0 42.3 43.7 41.4 43.4 42.0 40.0 43.8 41.3 42.2 42.4 40.3 43.8 41.2 42.3 42.0 40.1 43.3 40.9 42.1 41.7 39.7 43.6 40.6 41.5 41.8 39.7 41.1 41.9 36.4 43.7 40.9 38.5 42.2 36.5 43.7 41.0 38.0 42.2 36.5 43.4 38.9 42.3 42.6 42.4 39.0 38.7 41.9 ' 42.5 42.1 39.0 39.0 42.0 42.5 41.7 38.7 41.3 37.9 41.7 36.2 43.4 39.0 42.0 42.4 41.5 38.3 41.0 39.2 40.8 36.5 43.0 38.6 42.0 42.4 41.4 38.0 41.1 41. 9 42.8 u.o 41.3 42.9 42.4 40.3 41.1 39.4 42.4 36.5 43.5 38.7 42.0 42.6 42.2 38.5 41.3 u.6 ' 39.2 41.4 r42.9 40.1 r40.7 41.4 r39.3 r41.1 38.5 40.3 r35.5 r42.7 41.7 r43.2 r41.0 r37.0 41.0 39.1 40.6 36.2 42.9 38.8 41.8 43.1 41.3 37.4 Millions of dollars D6. VALUE OF MANUFACTURERS' NEW ORDERS, DURABLE GOODS INDUSTRIES1 (36 industry components) All durable goods industries Primary metals Blast furnaces, steel mills . . . . Nonferrous metals , Iron and steel foundries Other primary metals Fabricated metal products Metal cans, barrels, and drums Hardware, structural metal and wire products . . Other fabricated metal products Machinery, except electrical Steam engines and turbines*; } Internal combustion engines * Farm machinery and equipment Construction, mining, and material handling*. . Metalworking machinery * Miscellaneous equipment * Machine shops Special industry machinery1*. General industrial machinery* Office and store machines* Service industry machinery *. . 24,888 24,197 24,276 24,593 r22,125 22,240 4,305 2,331 4,109 2,173 23,960 3,677 1,737 22,329 3,905 2,037 24,371 4,106 2,277 22,072 4,057 2,104 3,315 1,495 3,427 1,805 r3,023 Pl,439 3,269 (NA) 2,411 2,206 2,237 2,163 2,231 "2,403 2,049 p2,224 p2,234 (NA) 3,529 3,538 3,553 3,609 3,391 3,266 P3,389 335 254 329 3,426 266 3,582 230 343 214 296 P311 (NA) 689 301 610 309 705 263 617 297 646 244 580 250 568 144 546 210 P604 p219 (NA) (NA) 254 303 251 251 252 263 329 252 p267 (NA) NOTE: Data are not shown when held confidential by the source agency. p = Preliminary. r = Revised, x Data are seasonally adjusted by source agency. 52 *Denotes machinery and equipment industries that comprise series 24. (NA) NA=Not available. Table 5B bed ANALYTICAL MEASURES MAY 1967 SELECTED DIFFUSION INDEXES AND COMPONENTS-Continued Direction of Change 9-month spans 1-month spans 1966 1967 1966 1967 Diffusion index title and components >* "? £ = ^ Dl. AVERAGE WORKWEEK OF PRODUCTION WORKERS, MANUFACTURING (21 industry components) Percent rising All manufacturing industries Durable goods industries: Ordnance and accessories Lumber and wood products "Si > •*-• o i_ <-i ^_ > ^ o p - S . ^ ? < ^ C ? 2 = ° -^ £ 3 E < > , o o - S - ^ > 6 A j = j * i ^ = j g - o o < D ^ o j r o - = < < ? > O Z 0 .-^ U _ E ^ < u o <? o 0 i c > o == S o ^ ^ = - g c S S u «. ^ S ^ r - o 5 § " = i 21 62 64 45 - 4 4 - 4 - - 4 : 4 69 - 0 0 " - 4- - '"•'- 4 40. 19 O O •;4 Fnrnitnrp anH fivtnrpc Stone clay and glass products Primary metal industries Fabricated metal products Machinery except electrical Electrical machinery Transportation equipment Instruments and related products Miscellaneous manufacturing industries Nondurable goods industries: Food and kindred products Tobacco manufactures Textile mill products Apparel and related products Paper and allied products Printing and publishing Chemicals and allied products Petroleum and related products. •• bo < 4 : 7 - 4 - 4-" 45 4- , - 4 „ - 04 4 - - 0 4- - t 4 - 4 - O ~ O 4 - '.,;•;». ::^.* ...:• 4 4 4 - 0 - - 4 - _ - - 4 - + 4- + . -• - + .,+ o 0 < - + 0 ., - O Leather and leather products 4 - :; 4 - + - - + 0. 4-:-. - - - 4 - 4 - 0 0 4 O - + - O 0 - ••-••• 4+ Q + - -*: * :4 0 _ -0 - ^ .+ •-+ _ 4 . - •:•' - ^ 4 19 10 19 17 ; 4 4 - - - - ; .. .4- - - 4 O - - - - 0 - - - - - - - - - - - - - o - .- o• - + - -: 4 4' 4 - O 4 4 ' - + - - 4 4 - _ , -' O O 4- - - 0 4 4 4 '. :-4 - + - - + 4 --- 4 - '•• •- 4- ••- .-4- - - 4' 4 0 ,;:. 10 .,.- , .- - 4 _ • 0 38 - - 4 ^4 36 + 4 : 36 - 4 - 31 48 4 O - " • 4 ' 76 4 + - - • • - Q: * 4- -4 4- 0 _ 4- - - + 44 56 32 39 56 47 _ 4- _ + - 4- 4 4 - 0 4 :• _ O_ - 0 - + 4 - 67 72 58 60 56 44 42 - 4 4 4 + + 4 4 4- 4- 4- - 4 0 O - - 4 - - - 4 - » - 4 - - D6. VALUE OF MANUFACTURERS' NEW ORDERS, DURABLE GOODS INDUSTRIES (36 industry components) 50 60 ^ 3 8 - 50 AH durable goods industries Primary metals: •' ; '- :f '+ " - Fabricated metal products: •••••- ". + + - "V '- - + _ 4- ' :; -' - _ •;• : ; - 4- - + - + -- _-•- +; 4-- 4- "* -'+ :+ - 4- - 4 - 4- 4 : : " "' - " +" + - - + 29 33 4 •-'•- ':- "4 36 - : '.4 --.- ; " - Machinery, except electrical: 4- Internal combustion engines * ' ;: - - 4 4 - ':'" -: 4 - - - 4 ' + - 4 - - - 4 4 - '' + " Construction mining and material handling * + Miscellaneous equipment * - 4 - 4 - 4- 4 - 4 + 4 4 Office and store machines*. Service industry machinery * - 0 4 - 4 4 - „ 4 - - - - - 4- - 4 - 4 4 4 4 + _ - - 4 - _ - ' + '4 .4 4 4 - - 4 - 4 4 4 ...» - - 4 - + ,.. 4 4 - + = rising; o = unchanged;- = falling. Directions of change are computed even though data are held confidential, comprise series 24. 4 4 4 - 4:. 4 0 4 ; "'•+ 4 + ' — 4 - ~ 4 - 4 4 - 4 4 4 — 4 . 4 4 4 4 - 4 4 4 4 - 4 - 4 4 4 4 - - ^Denotes machinery and equipment industries that 53 Table 5A ANALYTICAL MEASURES bed MAY 1967 SELECTED DIFFUSION INDEXES AND COMPONENTS-Continued Basic Data—Continued 1966 1966 1967 Diffusion index title and components Mar. Apr. May June Dec. July Jan. Feb. 3,552 3,362 P3,257 (NA) (NA) (NA) Mar. Apr. May 1 Millions of dollars 06. VALUE OF MANUFACTURERS' NEW ORDERS, DURABLE GOODS INDUSTRIES 2- Continued Electrical machinery 3,489 3,612 Electrical transmission, distr. equipment* .... I 705731 Electrical industrial apparatus* Household appliances Radio and TV 888 725 Communication equipment t. Electronic components * Other electrical machinery** 6,561 Transportation equipment 6,873 Motor vehicle parts Motor vehicle assembly operations Complete aircraft t 3,466 3,487 3,744 3,358 844 783 789 750 833 r724 P680 672 742 890 675 703 r793 P779 6,488 6,902 6,639 6,540 5,577 r5,799 r5,947 p6,099 106.8 105.2 102.5 100.1 99.0 .500 .062 26.316 1.547 .459 .064 27.603 1.580 .398 .343 .062 .063 29.301 26.812 1.610 1.569 .368 .064 28.213 1.528 Shipbuilding and railroad equipment* Instruments, total Lumber, total Furniture total Stone clay, and glass, total Other durable goods, total D23. INDEX OF INDUSTRIAL MATERIALS PRICES3 (13 industrial materials components) Industrial materials price index Index: 1957-59 = 100 123.5 121.5 .632 .078 36.019 1.808 .620 .082 31.479 1.770 .586 .075 30.384 1.678 .150 .170 .292 .205 1.762 .151 .169 .291 .215 1.787 .151 .163 .291 ,217 1.811 118.3 118.4 118.8 105.8 Dollars Copper scrap (Ib.) Lead scrap (Ib.) Steel scrap (ton) Tin(lb.) . Zinc(lb.) , Burlap (yd.) Cotton (Ib.), 15-market average Print cloth (yd.), average Wool tops (Ib ) Hides (Ib ) Rosin (100 Ib ) Rubber (Ib ) Tallow (Ib ) D54. SALES OF RETAIL STORES2 (23 retail store components) AH retail sales Other food stores Eating and drinking places ... Department stores Mail order houses (department store merchandise). Variety stores Other general merchandise stores . Men's and boys' wear stores .237 11.420 .257 .073 .212 .207 11.341 11.103 .235 .239 .071: .072 .629 .075 31.556 1.611 .623 .075 34.264 1.619 .469 .063 28.882 1.528 .148 .152 .151 .162 .161 .143 .292 .221 .291 .218 .208 .209 1.824 1.633 1.794 .227 .180 .236 11.100 11.022 10.905 .239 .223 .234 .061 .072 .073 .150 .149 .150 .147 .221 .220 .201 .202 1.628 1.624 .202 .211 10.938 10.828 .209 .219 .061 .056 .151 .150 .218 .197 1.601 .177 10.732 .204 .050 .150 .146 .218 .192 1.605 .142 .138 .217 .193 1.663 .156 .159 10.669 10.753 .201 .199 .050 .051 Millions of dollars 25,536 24,949 24,475 25,368 5,467 5,431 25,394 5,472 25,362 5,391 5,436 '5,376 1,935 2,119 220 459 1,924 2,099 224 453 1,910 2,113 216 467 1,967 2,214 219 487 1,996 2,201 234 481 2,019 2,162 216 475 277 279 283 295 301 282 25,687 r25,470 r25,771 t>25,667 5,417 r5,452 P5,519 (NA) 2,036 r2,026 p2,037 2,244 r2,191 p2,217 220 230 p223 P452 486 r472 (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) p317 (NA) 317 r304 NOTE: Data are not shown when held confidential by the source agency. * Denotes machinery and equipment industries that comprise series 24. "These industries plus ordnance comprise series 99. NA = Not available, p = Preliminary, r - Revised. Average for May 17, 18, and 19. 2 Data are seasonally adjusted by the source agency. 3 Series components are seasonally adjusted by the Bureau of the Census. Industrial materials price index is not seasonally adjusted. 54 bed Table SB ANALYTICAL MEASURES MAY 1967 SELECTED DIFFUSION INDEXES AND COMPONENTS-Continued Direetion of Change—Continued 1-month spans 1966 Diffusion index title and components >^ 9-month spans 1966 1967 1967 H „* *- i j - f t o l s - i s i ^ i f 11 § 1 1 1 ? i f 1 """" ™* "f"J •*•"* 5* O r— *"* i_ «^. O 0 ^ ^ 3 £ 8 £ £ ^ £ £ 3 D6. VALUE OF MANUFACTURERS' NEW ORDERS, DURABLE GOODS INDUSTRIES -Continued Electrical machinery: Electrical transmission, distr. equipment * Electrical industrial apparatus* Household appliances Radio and TV Communication equipment;!. Electronic components ........ .... Other electrical machinery* Transportation equipment: Motor vehicle parts Motor vehicle assembly operations Complete aircraftt Aircraft parts f Shipbuilding and railroad equipment* Other transportation equipment . . . . . Instruments, total Lumber, total Furniture, total Stone, clay, and glass, total ; Other durable goods, total D23. INDEX OF INDUSTRIAL MATERIALS PRICES2 (13 industrial materials components) Percent rising Industrial materials price index 4 4 - 4 " - 4 4 -4 _ ^ _ + _ „ + _ + _, + 4 - 4 - - - + + . _ + _ 4 - 4 4 - - 4 4 4 - 0 0 4 4 4 - 4 ^ - - + + '_ + - 4 4 - _ + - + _ 4 4 - - _ 4 - 4 4 4 - 4 - - - - 4 4 - + . - - 4 _ 4 O ^ O> o - m ^ 4 + 4 ; 4 4 4 4 4> 4 4 4 4 4 + + - - - 4 - - - 4 _ _ + 4 4 4 4 - + _ 4 . + .4 _ _ , _ - _ 4 - - 4 + - - 4 4 - 4 4 4 _ + * . . + - - 4 4 - 4 4 4 4 - - 4 4 4 4 4 - - _ _ 4 - 4 - 4 + ^ + _ _ + - _ - 4 - 4 4 4 - 4 + _ _ _ _ 4 4 + + _ 4 4 + _ 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 - 4 4 - 4 4. - + _ + _ + + - - + + 62 27 0 19 31 58 23 23 46 - - i + „ ' - 4 Wool tops {Ib ) 4,. , Hides (Ib ) - _ _ 46 _ 54 4 - _ _ 4 4 _ . „ - + _ —, ^ - ^ < 4 + » 4 =5 ^ 4 + + TO S - Q< <1> <TO u _ s _ - _ _ - - 4 - 4 4 - + - 4 4 4 4 4 - 4 - 4 4 - _ - _ _ - _ - + + + 4 4 - + + - _ - + 54 31 15 8 8 8 0 0 0 0 - - - - - - - - - - - - .- - - 62 _ 4 - Copper scrap (Ib ) I'pftH Qrrsn (\h \ Steel scrap (ton) _ „ _ - - + + - + + _ -. - - . " 4 + + + - - Tin flh ^ Zinc (Ib ) - 0 - - 4 4 4 - - Pur Ion fuH ^ + Print cloth (yd ) average _ - _ _ « - _ CT - ^ - 4 _ 4 - + _ _ 4 _ + + 444 - 4- - + + + + + .• - - - - 4 4 - - - + + 4 - D/\cin Mflfl Ih \ KOSin UUU IDJ Rubber (Ib ) • + 0 - - - 4 - - 4 - - _, . - - ^ •.«. - 4 - •• * X-ll/Mu /IK ^ D54. SALES OF RETAIL STORES (23retail store components) Percent rising w . . All retail sales Grocery stores • • Other food stores * Eating and drinking places Department stores 'Mail order houses (department store merchandise) • . Other general merchandise stores Men's and boys' wear stores 52 54 78 78 4 - ,4 .+ . . + , 83 78 76 65 83 87 83 65 4 4 '- 4 4 4 4 - 4 4 4 48 48 61 44 70 41 87 39 - 4 4 - 4 - 4 - _ _ + + - - 4 4 4 - - 4 4 - - 4 4 - 4 - + - 0 - 4 4 4 - 4 - 4 4 4 4 + + + - 4 ^ + 4 4 4 4 4 - 4 4 4 - 4 + - 4 _ _ - + - + - + - + + _ + + _ + _ + + - - + - ' 4 - 4 4 - 4 4 4 - ' - 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 - 4 4 4 4 4 4 :4 4 4 4 _ - 4 4 4 4 4 4 + 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 -i- = rising; o = unchanged;- = falling.. Directk)ns of change are computed even though data are held confide ntial. comprise series 24, tThese industries plus ordnance comprise series 99. + ^ ': - 4 4 4 4 4 4 , 4 | ^Denotes machinery and equipment industries that Average for May 17, 18, and 19. Directions of change are computed before figures are rounded. 55 Table 5A ANALYTICAL MEASURES bed MAY 1967 SELECTED DIFFUSION INDEXES AND COMPONENTS-Continued Basic Data—Continued 1966 1966 1967 Diffusion index title and components Mar. Apr. July June May Dec. Jan. Feb/ Mar,P Apr. Millions of dollars D54. SALES OF RETAIL STORES1- Continued Women's apparel accessory stores Family and other apparel stores Shoe stores Furniture home furnishings stores Household appliance TV radio stores Lumber yards building materials dealers Hardware stores Farm equipment dealers Passenger car and other automotive dealers .... Tire battery accessory dealers Gasoline service stations Drug and proprietary stores Liquor stores Jewelry stores. Other durable-goods stores Other nondurable-goods stores 569 579 578 583 584 536 587 576 563 (NA) 232 765 405 895 255 223 741 379 797 237 232 734 372 752 238 241 746 397 769 237 228 771 429 764 243 233 741 425 747 250 250 792 429 803 259 239 780 449 801 257 222 753 441 796 258 (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) 4,822 299 1,907 816 559 4,302 278 1,927 843 564 4,017 271 1,920 831 560 4,479 292 1,927 848 572 4,460 304 1,918 844 549 4,445 300 1,915 892 564 4,298 306 1,931 877 591 4,085 309 1,968 883 595 4,302 312 1,934 892 591 (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) > ;;; 1966 June July ' 1967 1966 Sept. Aug. Oct. Dec. Jan. Feb.r Mar.r Apr. p Thousands of employees D4L NUMBER OF EMPLOYEES IN NONAGRICULTURAL ESTABLISHMENTS1 (30 industry components) All nonagricultural establishments Ordnance and accessories Lumber and wood products Furniture and fixtures ..... , . . Stone, clay, and glass products Primary metal industries Fabricated metal products Machinery Electrical equipment Transportation equipment Instruments and related products Miscellaneous manufacturing industries Food and kindred products Tobacco manufactures , Textile mill products Apparel and related products . . , Paper and allied products Printing and publishing Chemicals and allied products Petroleum and related products Rubber and plastic products Leather and leather products Mining Contract construction Transportation and public utilities Wholesale trade Retai 1 trade 63,983 120 550 381 515 1,086 1,048 1,312 1,327 1,358 276 355 64,072 122 543 378 515 1,090 1,043 1,331 1,320 1,324 277 350 64,199 124 542 382 512 1,100 1,060 1,338 1,353 1,353 278 353 64,168 126 531 380 507 1,092 1,055 1,339 1,350 1,389 277 349 64,466 128 529 381 507 1,102 1,062 1,346 1,363 1,392 280 352 65,076 65,381 136 539 381 515 1,090 1,074 1,363 1,357 1,362 287 358 65,497 141 537 379 507 1,071 1,070 1,357 1,355 1,361 287 352 65,513 144 540 376 509 1,051 1,065 1,353 1,344 1,357 288 348 65,611 133 529 384 511 1,092 1,075 1,360 1,355 1,392 285 355 1,166 74 854 1,268 525 654 578 115 403 316 1,165 73 850 1,232 530 656 577 115 403 307 1,170 68 856 1,239 528 659 582 115 406 312 1,145 67 848 1,234 520 657 575 114 403 310 1,156 66 847 1,246 525 659 576 114 409 310 T-,184 74 848 1,251 530 666 582 115 417 308 1,183 77 847 1,257 531 673 584 115 417 307 1,184 72 838 1,242 533 673 583 114 412 302 1,190 72 835 1,221 534 677 580 114 408 298 1,175 74 830 1,224 532 676 577 114 409 303 632 3,300 4,143 3,470 9,747 636 3,297 4,122 3,483 9,773 636 3,251 4,105 3,483 9,781 628 3,228 4,168 3,474 9,794 625 3,202 4,165 3,486 9,854 626 3,293 4,196 3,515 9,877 628 3,301 4,230 3,530 9,973 626 3,350 4,225 3,535 9,989 626 626 3,320 3,279 4,221 4,191 3,552 3,553 9,925 10,112 NOTE: Data are not shown when held confidential by the source agency. Data are seasonally adjusted by the source agency. x 56 ,NA=Not available. p = Preliminary, r = Revised. 145 528 370 497 1,037 1,053 1,344 1,325 1,338 287 351 Table 58 bed ANALYTICAL MEASURES MAY 1967 SELECTED DIFFUSION INDEXES AND COMPONENTS-Continued Direction of Change-*-Continued 9-month spans 1966 Diffusion index title and components ^ oo QJ .L it; o •?• 3 1 t D54. SALES OF RETAIL STORES - Continued Women's apparel, accessory stores Family and other apparel stores Shoe stores Furniture home furnishings stores Household appliance, TV, radio stores Lumber yards, building materials dealers Hardware stores Farm equipment dealers Passenger car and other automotive dealers Tire battery, accessory dealers Gasoline service stations Drug and proprietary stores Liquor stores Jewelry stores Other duiable-goods stores Other nondurable-goods stores 00 5 8 1 £ _>, * =E 0 ["? 6 0 g 2= X Q 2 i =3 ^ O 1 II O f I? u" I "o ° I (5 s ic* :-..,+ i: " + - + + 4 4 0 + 4 4 + 4 + 4 4 4 - 4 - + + + + + 4 + :.;:;,,+ • + + 4, 4 4 4 + + '-' : V + - O 4 4 4 _ < + 4 4 4 - + + \ _ + .'.,.+ + 4 _ :f'#: : '+ 4 4 ., 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 + 4' + + 0 + 4 + + + + + 4 + + '-• 4 + 4 4 + 4 + + + + ,.••: 4 + + 4 4 4 4 - 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 +;: 4 :. 4 + + + 4 ?ii* ts 3 48 4 + + ;:V- + :".' _ + 4 + + + + 4 + 4 73 37 4 4 + 4 4 4 + - + 4 + 4 -^ 0 0 4 + + +•" + 4 + -h 4 + -(- : + 4 0 + 0 .:; 4 4. ' - 4 + + + +; o' + + 0 + - + + 0 p..; * 0 + O + 4 + 0 4 + .:.+,; . - . + + - + + O + 4 4 + 4 + 4 4 + 4 + 4 + + + + + 4 + 4 + + 4 + 4 4 + + 4 4 + 4 + 4 + 4 0 4 + 4 4 4 + + +! + 4 4 4 4 Q. <c o o> i06 & c =3 j| _>» n S 75 83 4 75 + 72 4 4 4 70 + 4 4 4 4 ' + 4 ts 3 73 V TO E do o 68 57 + + 4 + 4 + + • + + 4 + 4 + 4 + + 4 + + 4 + + 4 + 4 + + 0 + 4 4 + 4 + + 4 4 + + 4 4 + 4 + 4 + O 0 + 4 + 4 4 4 + + + 4 + 4 + +1 4 0 Q 4 + + + - 0 4 0 4 + + 0 ••••.— ~ 4^ 4 + + + + 4 + + + 4 + + 4 + + + + 4 4 4 + 4 4 4 4 4 4 + + + + 4 - 4 - - + 0 + + 4 4 4 4 4 + 4 4 + 4 4 4 4 4 4 + 4 :;: 4 0 O O +: 0 : ;+ 4 4 _ 4-i 4 + + ^fr 2 o + :; + 0 4 4 o + + 4 + +:r O 82 + + + 85 + 4 + + + 4 0 4 0 4 + 4 •+ 4 4 ••+_. 4 1967 * S= LL. 4 4:: O + 4 CO —^ 42 0 M 1 " .i <D C3 4 + 0 4 45 "7* c + 4 + 4 + 4 + 4 Transportation and public utilities Wholesale trade Retail trade 63 4 + + ^ =3 + 4 + 4 4 1966 I H o5 iS i t V> o o a> O 2 0 * £ i 88 23 75 4 . o + 4 + 73 + 0 4 4 Mining jib =3 6-month spans 1967 19 Chemicals and allied products Petroleum and related products £ + 4 4 + 4 ."*"•:• + + + + + + 4 4 **• 4 4 + 4 1966 Percent rising All nonagricultural establishments Ordnance and accessories Lumber and wood products Furniture and fixtures Stone clay and glass products Primary metal industries Fabricated metal products Machinery Electrical equipment Transportation equipment Instruments and related products Miscellaneous manufacturing industries Food and kindred products . * Tobacco manufactures Textile mill products Apparel and related products i £ -p 1 * + + 4 1-month spans D41. NUMBER OF EMPLOYEES IN NONAGRICULTURAL ESTABLISHMENTS (30 industry components) 1967 1966 1967 June-Mar 1-month spans 0 0 +• 0 0; 4! O O O 4 + 4 + + + 4 4 + + 4 + = rising; o = unchanged; - = falling. Directions of change are computed even though data are held confidential. 57 Table 5A ANALYTICAL MEASURES MAY 1967 bed SELECTED DIFFUSION INDEXES AND COMPONENTS-Continued Basic Data—Continued 1967 1966 1966 Diffusion index title and components June July Aug. Sept. Oct. Jan. Dec. Feb. Mar. Apr, Thousands of employees D41. NUMBER OF EMPLOYEES IN NONAGRICULTURAL ESTABLISHMENTS1-^ Finance insurance real estate Service and miscellaneous Federal government State and local government 3,090 9,549 2,571 3,314 3,095 9,609 2,601 8,328 3,100 9,647 2,610 8,324 3,100 9,649 2,594 8,329 D47. INDEX OF INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION L (24 industry components) All industrial production Durable goods: Primary and fabricated metals Primary metal products Fabricated metal products Machinery and related products Machinery except electrical Electrical machinery Transportation equipment Instruments and related products Clay glass and lumber Clay glass and stone products Lumber and products Furniture and miscellaneous Furniture and fixtures Miscellaneous Nondurable goods: Textiles apparel, and leather Textile mill products Apparel products Leather and products Paper and printing Paper and products • • Printing and publishing • Chemicals petroleum and rubber. .......... Chemicals and products Petroleum products Rubber and plastics products ............ Foods beverages and tobacco ............ Foods and beverages Tobacco products . Minerals: Coal Crude oil and natural gas Metal stone and earth minerals Stone and earth minerals 3,102 9,712 2,615 8,393 3,121 9,821 2,629 8,553 3,129 9,869 2,662 8,591 3,142 r9,919 2,673 r8,636 r3,158 r9,977 r2,688 r8,695 P3,175 P9,994 p2,709 p8,738 Index: 1957-59 = 100 156.5 157.2 158.0 157.7 158.9 159.0 r!58.1 r!56.4 156.4 P155.9 148.0 161.8 US*. 6 162.1 148 '.7 161.4 146 '.4 163.0 145.' 6 164.2 136 '.2 168.7 r!3l!9 rl66.6 rl3l'.6 rl65.3 131 !l 163.6 p!30 pl6l 18CL3 186.0 167.1 176.5 184! 7 189.1 166.0 177.0 186*. 7 193.4 166.0 177.4 188*.6 189.2 168.3 179.5 189>!9 192.6 174.6 181.8 190 .*4 188.3 171.5 184.6 r!9C)!7 r!87.2 164.6 186.2 r!87.1 r!85.1 r!59.4 rl83.4 l8/4! 8 r!82.3 164.3 r!85.9 141.0 122.9 138*. 5 119.9 140! 5 111.3 141 '.2 110.0 137^8 111.3 136 '.9 112.8 r!37*.2 115.7 136 '.9 rll6.9 136.1 P119.4 pl 83 pl78 Pl69 p!86 P129 P135 (NA) 174.6 159.3 169.7 157.2 175 .'3 158.7 173 '.2 158.4 173 '.2 157.2 174 .'o 160,9 172 '.1 160.3 170 ! 6 rl6o!6 r!57.1 r!57.9 pl64 p!58 144 '.6 152.0 1H.2 143 '.4 149.7 111.1 142.1 147.7 110.4 141.7 148.4 109.9 142^4 148.1 113.9 141.4 150.5 111.1 rl39'. 3 r!50.2 rl07,7 r!35.6 136.0 (NA) (NA) 154!l 144.1 156.2 144.8 153 !l 145.3 151.2 144.3 153.' 3 144.1 152.6 143.7 154!o 145.5 192.7 127.7 184.1 194*. 5 126.9 188.7 194.' 4 128.5 190.3 193 '.5 130.6 193.6 196 '.9 131.2 199.2 198.7 129.0 201.6 r!98.6 r!28.7 r!98.8 127.1 122.7 128.1 116.5 129.2 119.9 128.5 120.5 127.5 116.9 119.3 131 '.9 118.5 p!35 p!34 (NA) (NA) p!49 (NA) p!48 P185 (NA) (NA) (NA) P130 (NA) (NA) 120.7 119.3 120.8 119.2 120.7 119.6 114.7 119.6 121.5 119.5 125.2 119.0 120.7 rl!9.3 115.7 r!20.6 115.1 119.6 134.2 133.3 134.' 6 133.7 132.1 133.8 128! 6 133.5 129 .'4 130.3 134*. 2 139.3 140*. 3 138.7 r!42.1 r!36.6 plU.2 p!37.1 p!20 p!20 p!36 (NA) (NA) 105.6 106.0 106.4 106.4 106.3 106.2 106.4 106.4 106.3 106.2 107.7 98.9 102.5 102.0 106.6 99.0 102.7 102.2 106.2 99.1 102.7 102.7 105.9 99.2 103.0 102.5 104.8 99.7 103.2 102.5 102.5 100.4 103.3 102.9 102.6 103.6 100.4 103.7 103.2 103.6 100.6 103.8 103.3 104.1 100.6 103.9 103.2 132 !6 136 '.7 P146.4 p!03.6 pl50.5 147.2 r!86.8 200.0 p200.5 r!26.7 p!28.9 (NA) P196.3 P130.1 131 ! 3 pl30.8 (NA) P120.2 r!52!4 r 146.1 D58. INDEX OF WHOLESALE PRICES, ALL MANUFACTURING 2 (22 manufacturing industries) All manufacturing industries Durable goods: Lumber and wood products Furniture and other household durables Nonmetallic mineral products Iron and steel NOTE: Data are not shown when held confidential by the source agency. ^•Data are seasonally adjusted by the source agency. 2 Data are not seasonally adjusted. 58 NA=Not available, p = Preliminary. 100.4 103.6 103.0 r = Revised. Table SB bed ANALYTICAL MEASURES MAY 1967 SELECTED DIFFUSION INDEXES AND COMPONENTS-Continued 1-month spans 6-month spans 1967 1966 1966 1967 I1 Si Lu -SIS * 1 •71 I § 1 t 1I S 1 D4L NUMBER OF EMPLOYEES IN NONAGRICULTURALESTABLISHMENTS-Con. Finance insurance real estate Service and miscellaneous D47. INDEX OF INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION (24 industry components) Percent rising1 All industrial production Durable goods: 4 4 4 4- 4 4 4- 4 4 4- 4- + : 4. 4 4 4 4 4 25 46 o 71 75 62 65 58 4- 4 4 4- 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 + 4 + 4 - + + + + + 4 0 + 4:: 4; + 4 '•'• 46 60 60 - 50 4 58 -33 - 4 •4- 4 - - - - - + _ 4 + 4 4 _ Machinery, except electrical Electrical machinery Transportation equipment Instruments and related products 4 4 4 - - 4 4 O 4 4 4 4 4 4 *..- 4 4 4 - - 4 PI n\t office snrl cfnnp nrnrliif*tQ - 4 4 4 - 4 - - 4 0 4 - 1 4- - 4 4 4 4 NA 4 + 4 B -g "? L*- ri 4 4 4 - i "S. O) CO + 4 "o O + . + 4 4 - 4 4 - 4 - 4 - 52 62 50 4 + 44 38 + - + + - 4 4 + + + + 4 4 4 + + 4 + NA - - - + + 4- 4- 4- 4 4 4 4 4 4- 4 + 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 _ _ 4 4- 4- + 4 - _ 4 Lumber and products Furniture and fixtures Miscellaneous Nondurable goods: - 42 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 40 4 4 4- 4 + 0 4 4 4 4 O 4 - 4 1S ts ? 1 ea I 4 4- 4 4 Primary metal products Fabricated metal products 1 * £ S + State and local government 3 June-Dec Diffusion index title and components - 4 - - ~ 4 4 4 4 4 4 O + 4 4 ^ Tpvtilp mill nrnrtnrt^ + Apparel products Leather and products Paper and printing . paper and products Printing and publishing Chemicals petroleum and rubber Chemicals and products Petroleum products 4 - 4 + _ . - NA NA o NA 4- 4 4 + . * *. O 4 4 + 4 NA + - + + 4 Rubber and plastics products - Foods and beverages Tobacco products ............................. Minerals: Coal Crude oil and natural gas - 4 4 - + - - 4 + 4 4 4 - 4 4 - + 4 - - + 4 4 - - 4 4 4 - - - NA 4 - - 4 4 4 4 + + 4 - NA NA NA NA 4- NA NA NA NA + NA NA 4 4 4 4 4 4 4- 4 4 4 4 + 4 4- 4 4 4 + + + + 4 4 O 4 0 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 NA NA 73 73 64 64 73 73 64 4 4 4 4 0 4 4- 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4- 4- + + 4 4 4 + + 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 + 4 - - 4 4 - 4 4 :- 4- 4 + 4- 4 4 4 4 - - 4 4 NA NA 73 54 48 64 64 54 96 96 4 - - 0 57 - 48 4 4 4 + 4 4 4 4 4 -: - 4 4- - - - 4 NA NA + NA + 4 - - '-'0 NA NA 4 4 - + ~ - - 4 •' - + - 4 4 4 + NA NA NA 4 4 4 4 4 4 NA 4 Metal mining Stone and earth minerals •• . D58. INDEX OF WHOLESALE PRICES, ALL MANUFACTURING2 (22 manufacturing industries) Percent rising All manufacturing industries Durable goods: Lumber and wood products Furniture and other household durables Nonmetallic mineral products* ..................... Iron and steel + = rising; o = unchanged; -= falling. 4 + 4 :: + 0 4- 0 4 77 73 +' o 4 4- O 4 o q 4 O + 4 4 0 4 4 4 - 0 4 4 + 4 4 + 4 44 4 4 : 4 4 86 4 ; NA=Not available. ^The percent rising is based on 24 industry components. Where actual data for separate industries are not available, estimates are used to compute the percent rising. Directions of change for the most recent spans are computed before figures for the current month are rounded. 2 Data are not seasonally adjusted. 59 Table 5A ANALYTICAL MEASURES bed MAY 1967 SELECTED DIFFUSION INDEXES AND COMPONENTS-Continued Basic Data—Continued 1967 1966 1966 Diffusion index title and components June July Aug. Sept. Oct. Dec. Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. Index: 1957-59 = 100 D58. INDEX OF WHOLESALE PRICES, ALL MANUFACTURINGMtontinued Durable goods-Continued General purpose machinery and eouipment Nondurable goods: Processed foods and feeds Wool products Man made fiber textile products Pulp, paper, and allied products Chemicals and allied products Petroleum products refined Rubber and rubber products Hides, skins, leather, and related products 123.2 104.1 111.2 109.8 106.0 98.8 100.7 106.9 122.9 104.2 111.2 110.0 106.2 99.0 100.7 107.1 120.4 104.2 112.3 110.6 106.2 99.1 100.5 107.1 119.9 104.4 112.4 111.1 106.8 99.2 100.1 107.1 120.3 104.6 112.7 111.8 107.4 99.5 101.7 107.2 120.5 104.9 113.2 112.4 108.1 101.5 101.7 107.5 121.8 104.8 113.6 112.8 108.5 101.9 101.6 107.9 122.3 104.8 113.6 113.0 108.7 101.8 101.6 108.0 121.1 104.8 113.7 113.0 108.8 102.2 101.6 107.8 120.0 104.9 113.6 113.0 108.8 102.3 101.6 108.0 111.0 102.8 106.5 90.0 104.8 103.0 97.6 100.2 95.4 122.9 113.8 103.0 106.7 90.1 105.0 103.2 97.9 99.9 95.1 122.7 115.7 103.3 106.6 89.6 105.0 103.2 97.9 100.7 95.1 121.2 115.5 103.1 106.1 88.8 105.1 103.1 98.0 101.0 94.7 119.9 113.9 103.3 105.6 88.1 105.3 103.1 97.9 101.3 94.6 118.7 112.8 102.7 104.8 86,9 105.4 103.0 98.2 100.2 95.0 117.3 132.8 102.5 104.7 87.1 105.7 103.1 98.4 100.3 95.6 117.9 111.7 101.8 104.7 87.1 105.9 103.3 98.5 101.9 95.8 118.0 110.6 101.3 104.0 86.9 106.0 103.6 98.5 102.4 95.9 117.0 110.0 100.8 102.9 86.8 p = Preliminary. r = Revised. a Data are not seasonally adjusted. 60 Basic data for components of diffusion index D19, "Index of stock prices, 500 common stocks," and of diffusion index 05, "Initial claims for unemployment insurance, State programs,"are not available from the Census Bureau. 106.2 103.9 98.8 101.7 95.9 116.0 bed Table 5B ANALYTICAL MEASURES MAY 1967 SELECTED DIFFUSION INDEXES AND COMPONENTS-Continued Direction of Change—Continued 1-month spans 6-month spans 1966 Diffusion index title and components >% 3 "Sc 3 •^ 1s 00 f _>» 3 00 Nondurable goods: Processed foods and feeds Cotton products . Wool products 0 0 4 .. 4 "4- 4- o 4 4 b 4 * Manmarfp fihpr fpyfilp nrndurfc Apparel 4 3 . *. o *4 + 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 0 I c CO o <D 0 0 4 4 4 • : > O t> D58. INDEX OF WHOLESALE PRICES, ALL MANUFACTURING* -Continued Durable goods-Continued Fabricated structural metal products' Miscellaneous metal products ' General purpose machinery and equipment Miscellaneous machinery Electrical machinery and equipment Motor vehicles and equipment' Miscellaneous products 4 ,44. 4 4 -K 4 4 4 4 •s Lu l£ 0 O + 0 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 0 0 4 4 4 4 4-: 0 : 0 4 0 4' 4 4 4 0 1S D19. INDEX OF STOCK PRICES, 500 COMMON STOCKS1 (23 industry components) 2 Percent rising3. . . Index of 500 stock prices * * *••• 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 0 4 4 4 4 4 + 4 4 4 4 4 + 4 + 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 O 0 4 4 4r 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 •+• 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 - 4 4 4 4 + 4 4 4 4- 4 4 4 + 4 4 0 4 4 4 0 4- 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 + 4 4 4 4 0 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 ; 4 4 4 0 0 : 4 4 4 + 4 4 4 , 9-month spans IS 38 $3 60 91 92 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 Food composi te. Tobacco (cigarette manufacturers) 4 4 • S 4 4 Text! le products Electric companies Natural gas distributors Retai 1 stores composi te.. Life insurance •4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 + 4 • * 4 + 4 61 76 + 4 + 4 + 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 '•4 + 4 4 4 4 4 + 4 4 4 38 > O 22 > I 1 —\ o! 12 6 10 CJ CD 0 CO 22 5 Q. a <c s 20 47 4 4 4 4 CO £ _>» 3 ^ 58 66 + 4 4 4 4 + 4 4 4 4 4 4 + 4 4 + 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 '• 4 4 4. 4 4 4 4 ] + 4 + 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 + 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 + 4 4 + 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 + 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 + 4 4 4 4 0 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 "o O DO 5 4 4 4 • =3 1967 4 4 + .4 CB 4 4 + £. 4 4 4 £ + 4 4 4. _>» en 4 4 Publ ishing Chemicals Drugs Oil composite Building materials composite Steel Metal fabricating Machinery composite Office and business equipment Electric household appliances Electronics * •.. Automobiles ...*.,.... Radio and television broadcasters 1966 4 4 *..•• 4 4 -h a-s 4 25 "o O 0 1 6 OJ c-o 4 > C/O i £ 1 "o. O + o o O S I "I 3?3 5 £ 3 00 •1 I ^ :>, 4 1967 OQ j| i i 4 1966 3 >v 9 S 1-month spans _>, > o *? + o 4 18 0 4 4 OtO O ,. O 1967 4 0 4 1 4 4 4 0 j-^ Z3 9 1 4 4 • jb ^ 03 4 o 1966 1967 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 ; 4 4 _ + 4 4 4 = rising; o = unchanged; - =falling. Directions of change are computed even though data are held confidential. 1 Data are not seasonally adjusted. 2 The 23 components shown here include 18 of the more important industries and 5 composites representing an additional 23 of the industries used in computing the diffusion index in table 4. 3 Based on 77 components. 61 Table 5B ANALYTICAL MEASURES bed MAY 1967 SELECTED DIFFUSION INDEXES AND COMPONENTS-Continued Direction of Change—Continued 9-month spans 1-month spans 2? t>0 J f D5. INITIAL CLAIMS FOR UNEMPLOYMENT INSURANCE, STATE PROGRAMS1 (26 area components) Percent rising 47 labor market areas • Northeast region: Boston (6) Buffalo (20) Newark (11) New York (1) Paterson (22) Philadelphia (4) Pittsburgh (9) Providence (25) North Central region: Chicago (2) Cleveland (10) Columbus (26) 17 72 4 0 *£» i* I L 81 4- 36 4 Portland (24) San Francisco (7i) Seattle (17) O ZT 28 4 - 4 4 4 - 4 4 - 4 4- 4 4 . 47 17 4 4 4 4- 4 « "o 0 o 0 O 45 68 77 79 4 4 4 + 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 -{- 4 4 - - 4 4 4 4 4 4 60 LL 81 34 34 23 17 54 4 4 4 4 4- 4 4 4 + 4 4 4 4 4 4 - 4' + 4 4 4 4 - - 4 4 4- 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 - 4 4 4 4 4 4 - 4 4 - 4 4 4 + 4 4 4 4 - - 4 4- - 4 4 4 - 4 4 - 4 4 4 + + 4 4 4 + 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 + 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 - 4 4 4 4 - 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 +• 4 4 O 4- 4 4 4 4 4 - 4 4 4 - 4 4 4 - 4 4 4 + 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 + 4 - 4 4 + + 4 + 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 Sit •<" 4 4 1£ S + 4 4- .. 00 > o =Z - - 4 55 >^ •*!» 4 4 4 4- 4 IS 4 4- 4 £ * + 4 4 -Q O> LL. 4 4 4 jr C9 —\ 4 4 •• *..... . 47 4 4 4 Indianapolis (23) Kansas City (19) Milwaukee hfi )..... Minneapolis (13) St Louis (8) South region: Atlanta (18) Baltimore (12) Dallas (15) Houston (14) West region: 1§ 3 9 1967 1966 1967 1966 Diffusion index title and components 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4- 4- 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4- 4 4 4 4 - = rising; o = unchanged; + ~ falling. The signs are reversed because this series usually rises when general business activity falls and falls when business rises. Data used are for the week including the 12th of the month. Directions of change are computed even though data are held confidential. Series components are seasonally adjusted by the Bureau of the Census before the direction of change is determined. The percent rising is based on 47 labor market areas. Directions of change are shown separately for only the 26 largest areas. Bie number in parentheses indicates the size rank for each labor market area. 62 Section THREE charts REFERENCE CYCLES Current expansion compared wifh expansions in earlier business cycles CHART 3 CYCLICAL COMPARISONS bed 1967 MAY COMPARISONS OF REFERENCE CYCLES PERIOD COVERED Percent Nov. 1948 to Aug. 1954 (Reference trough: Oct. 1949) July 1953 to Apr. 1958 (Reference trough: Aug. 1954} July 1957 to Feb. 1961 (Reference trough: Apr. 1958) May 1960 to present (Reference trough: Feb. 1961} -Reference trough dates 29. New bldg. permits, private housing units Percent - 180 106 -Reference trough dates 1. Avg. workweek, prod, wkrs., mfg. 104 : - 170 160 1 ~ 150 " 140 _ 130 A> 102 ; G. f VVJ(AA "yi V *\ i ™ 100** - 120 ^ 110 -1 o D 00 100* 98 .f <•* 96 6. New orders, dur. goods indus. J - I i - 80 I u 31. Change in book value, mfg. and trade inventories (ann. rate, bil. dol,; 5-term moving avg.) 1 200 190 90 i „, 70 180 Bil. dol. +20 170 160 150 +16 140 ^ 130 ^ +12 _o> 120 5 S 110 GO +4 100* -12 0 +12 +24 +36 +48 +60 +72 Months from reference troughs +84 90 0 80 -4 -12 0 +12 +24 +36 +48 +60 +72 +84 Months from reference troughs Current data are shown in table 2. The number in the box indicates latest month (Arabic numeral) or quarter (Roman numeral) for which data are used. 1 Lines represent actual data rather than percentages of reference peak levels. 'Reference peak level. .*Point at which this expansion reached a new reference peak, opoint at which a new reference trough was reached. 64 CHART 3 bed CYCLICAL COMPARISONS MAY 1967 COMPARISONS OF REFERENCE CYCLES-Continued | PERIOD COVERED Percent Nov. 1948 to Aug. 1954 (Reference trough: Oct. 1949) July 1953 to Apr. 1958 (Reference trough: Aug. 1954) July 1957 to Feb. 1961 (Reference trough: Apr. 1958) May 1960 to present (Reference trough: Feb. 1961} -Reference trough dates 17. Ratio, price to unit labor cost, mfg. Percent 110 •*-—— Reference trough dates 105 23. Industrial materials prices 140 130 100* 120 110 100* 90 80 ; Bil. dol. 70 +12 19. Stock prices, 500 common stocks 113. Change in consumer installment debt (ann, rate, bil. do!.)'* 200 190 180 +10 +8 170 180 +6 150 140 130 +4 110 +2' 100* 90 80 -12 0 +12 +24 +36 +48 +60 Months from reference troughs +72 +84 -12 0 +12 +24 +36 +48 +60 +72 Months from reference troughs +84 Current data are shown in table 2. The number in the box indicates latest month (Arabic numeral) or quarter (Roman numeral) for which data are used. 1 Lines represent actual data rather than percentages of reference peak levels. * Reference peak level. * Point at which this expansion reached a new reference peak, o Point at which a new reference trough was reached. 65 CHART 3 CYCLICAL COMPARISONS MAY 1967 bed COMPARISONS OF REFERENCE CYCLES-Continued PERIOD COVERED Percent 12S — Nov. 1948 to Aug. 1954 (Reference trough: Oct. 1949) July 1953 to Apr. 1958 (Reference trough: Aug. 1954) -—- July 1957 to Feb. 1961 (Reference trough: Apr. 1958) May 1960 to present (Reference trough: Feb. 1961} -Reference trough dates 41. Employees in nonagri. establishments D 120 111 «— — Reference tumigti 50. GNP in 1958 dollars, Q 47. Industrial production 816. Mfg. and trade sales **? 120 n m 110 j^r..-.•-•--•* 110 Mf/:f\ \ ^7 '-j * U 100* too* © +12 +14 +3i +48 +80 +12 Months from reference troughs +84 -12 " 0 +12 +24 +38 +48 +10 +12 Months from reference troughs Current data are shown in table 2. The number in the box indicates latest month (Arabic numeral) or quarter (Roman numeral) for which data are used, "Reference peak level. * Point at which this expansion reached a new reference peak, o Point at which a new reference trough was reached. 66 +84 CHART 3 bed CYCLICAL COMPARISONS MAY 1967 COMPARISONS OF REFERENCE CYCLES-Continued PERIOD COVERED Percent — Nov. 1948 to Aug. 1954 (Reference trough: Oct. 1949) ........ Ju)y 1953 to Apr 1958 (Reference trough; Aug. 1954) -—- July 1957 to Feb. 1961 (Reference trough: Apr. 1958) May 1960 to present (Reference trough: Feb. 1961) •— -i"*ti!er^£i $3ales 61. Business expenditures, new plant and equipment, Q. - v™ - ?&M$e tcmgrt 43. Unemployment rate, total {percent unemployed, inverted)1 X' 67. Bank rates on short-term business loans, Q. 55. Wholesale prices, industrial commodities A y »12 Cfi +12 +14 +3S Months from +48 +1® treygfos +12 +14 -12 © +12 +24 +31 +48 +80 +12 fromref@renc§ Current data are shown in table 2, The number in the box indicates latest month (Arabic numeral) or quarter (Roman numeral) for which data are used. 1 Lines represent actual data rather than percentages of reference peak levels. * Reference peak level. * Point at which this expansion reached a new reference peak, o point at which a new reference trough was reached. * La test data anticipated. 67 CHART 3 CYCLICAL COMPARISONS MAY 1967 bed COMPARISONS OF REFERENCE CYCLES-Continued PERIOD COVERED Bil. dol. — Nov. 1948 to Aug. 1954 (Reference trough: Oct. 1949) "•—" July 1953 to Apr. 1958 (Reference trough: Aug. 1954) --— July 1957 to Feb. 1961 (Reference trough: Apr. 1958) May 1960 to present (Reference trough: Feb. 1961) -Reference trough dates 95. Federal surplus or deficit, national income m product account, a . rate, bit dol.)' Percent +20 +15 -—Reference trough rt dates / 115 62. Labor cost per / unit of output, / mfg. +10 ** +5 "S 110 105 -5 100* Percent change 95 160 71. Book value, mfg. and trade inventories 98. Change in money supply and time deposits lann. rate, percent;6-temi moving avg.)1 150 +12 +10 140 +8 130 +6 m j1 < c +4 CsJ 120 « 2 CO 110 +2 100* 90 -12 0 +12 +24 +36 +48 +60 Months from reference troughs +72 +84 -12 0 +12 +24 +36 +48 +60 +72 +84 Months from reference troughs Current data are shown in table 2. The number in the box indicates latest month (Arabic numeral) or quarter (Roman numeral) for which data are used. 1 Lines represent actual data rather than percentages of reference peak levels. 'Reference peak level. * Point at which this expansion reached a new reference peak, o Point at which a new reference trough was reached. 68 Appendix A.-BUSINESS CYCLE EXPANSIONS AND CONTRACTIONS IN THE UNITED STATES: 1854 TO 1961 Duration in months. Contraction (trough from previous peak) Business cycle reference dates Trough Cycle Expansion (trough to peak) Trough from previous trough Peak from previous peak Peak December 1854 December 1858 June 1861 December 1867 December 1870 March 1879 June 1857 October 1860 April 1865 June 1869 October 1873 March 1882. . May 1885 April 1888 May 1891 June 1894 June 1897 December 1900 March 1887 July 1890 January 1893 December 1895 June 1899 September 1902 August 1904 June 1908 January 1912 December 1914 March 1919 July 1921 July 1924 ; (X) 18 8 32 '15 65 30 22 46 13 34 36 (X) 48 30 '78 36 99 (X) 40 54 50 52 101 38 13 10 17 18 18 22 27 20 18 24 21 74 35 37 37 36 42 60 40 30 35 42 39 May 1907 January 1910 January 1913 August 1918 January 1920 May 1923 23 13 24 23 7 13 33 19 12 44 10 22 44 46 43 35 51 23 56 32 36 67 17 40 November 1927 March 1933 June 1938 October 1945 October 1949 October 1926 August 1929 May 1937 February 1945 November 1948 July 1953 14 13 43 13 8 11 27 21 50 80 37 45 36 40 64 63 88 ?g 41 34 93 93 ?5 j>6 August 1954 April 1958 February 1961 July 1957 May 1960 13 9 9 35 25 (X) 34 48 34 (X) Average, all cycles: 26 cycles, 1854-1961 . . 10 cycles, 1919-1961 . . 4 cycles, 1945-1961... 19 15 10 30 35 36 49 50 46 149 54 3 46 Average, peacetime cycles: 22 cycles, 1854-1961 .. 8 cycles, 1919-1961,.. 3 cycles, 1945-1961 . . . 20 16 10 26 28 32 45 45 42 .... 2 *46 5 48 42 6 NOTE: Underscored figures are the wartime expansions (Civil War, World Wars I,and II, and Korean War), the postwar contractions,and the full cycles that in elude, the wartime expansions. ^5 cycles, 1857-1960. 9 cycles, 1920-1960. 2 3 4 4 cycles, 1945-1960. 21 cycles, 1857-1960. ?] cycles, 1920-1960. 63 cycles, 1945-1960. Source: National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. 69 Appendix B.-SPECIFIC TROUGH AND PEAK DATES FOR SELECTED BUSINESS INDICATORS Specific trough dates for reference expansions beginning inSelected series Feb. 1961 Apr. 1958 Aug. 1954 Oct. 1949 June 1938 Mar. 1933 Nov. 1927 July 1924 July 1921 NBER LEADING INDICATORS !. Average workweek, production workers, Dec. manufacturing 30. Nonagricultural placements, all industries. . . Jan. Jan. 38 Index of net business formation Jan. 6 New orders durable goods industries 10. Contracts and orders, plant and equipment. . . Mar. 29. New building permits, private housing units. . Dec. 31. Change in book value, manufacturing and trade inventories 23. Industrial materials prices 19. S^ock prices, 1500 common stocks 16. Corporate profits after taxes (Q) 17. Ratio, price to unit labor cost, manufacturing 113. Change in consumer installment debt Dec. Dec. Oct. IstQ '60 '61 '61 '61 '61 '60 Apr. Mar. Apr. Jan. Mar. Feb. '58 '58 '58 '58 '58 '58 Apr. May Mar. Sep. Mar. Sep. '54 '54 '54 '53 '54 '53 Apr. July July June Apr. Jan. '49 Jan. '38 June '32 Apr. '28 July '24 Feb. '21 (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) '49 (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) '49 (NSC) May ' 24 Jan. '21 '49 Apr. '38 Mar. '33 (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) '49 '49 Dec. '37 Dec. '32 May ' 27 July '24 Dec. '20 '60 '60 '60 '61 Apr. Apr. Dec. IstQ '58 '58 '57 '58 Nov. Feb. Sep. 4thQ '53 '54 '53 '53 Apr. June June 2ndQ (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) '49 '49 June '38 July '32 Aug. '28 June '24 July '21 (NSC) Oct. '23 Aug. '21 '49 Apr. '38 June »32 '49 2ndQ '38 3rdQ '32 4thQ '27 3rdQ '24 2ndQ '21 Jan. '61 Mar. Apr. '61 Mar. '58 Mar. '54 May ' 49 Dec. '37 Apr. '32 Aug. '27 June '24 Mar. '21 (NA) (NA) (NA) '58 Mar. '54 Jan. '49 Feb. '38 Feb. '32 NBER ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS 41. Employees in nonagri cultural establishments. Feb. '61 May ' 5$ Aug. '54 Oct. '49 May '61 July '58 Sep. '54 Oct. '49 43. Unemployment rate, total (inverted) 50. GNP in 1958 dollars (Q)i. IstQ '61 IstQ '58 2ndQ ' 54 2ndQ '49^ 47. 52. 816. 54. Industrial production Personal income Manufacturing and trade sales Sales of retai 1 stores Feb. '61 (NSC) Jan. '61 Apr. '61 Apr. Feb. Mar. Mar. »58 '58 '58 '58 Apr. Apr. Aug. Jan. June '38 Mar. '33 Jan. '28 July '24 July '21 (NA) (NA) (NA) June '38 May '33 (NSC) (NSC) 4thQ '21 IstQ '38 3rdQ '32 '54 Oct. '49 May '38 '54 July '49 May '3-8x (NA) '54 Oct. '49 (NSC) May '38 '54 July '32 Nov. '27 July '24 Apr. '21 2ndQ'21 Mar. '33 4 t h Q ' 2 6 2nd (NA) (NA) (NA) Mar. '22 (NSC) (NSC) Mar. '33 W NBER LAGGING INDICATORS 502. Unemployment rate, persons unemployed 15 weeks and over ( inverted) 6L Business expenditures, new plant and equipment (Q) 71. Book value, manufacturing and trade inventori es 62. Labor cost per unit of output, manufacturing 72. Commercial and industrial loans outstanding 67. Bank rates on short-term business loans (Q) July '61 Aug. 2ndQ '61 3rdQ '58 IstQ '55 Mar. (NA) '58 Oct. '54 Nov. '49 4thQ '49 3rdQ '38 IstQ '33 (NA) '61 Aug. ' 58 Oct. '54 Dec. '49 Sep. '61 June '59 Sep. '55 (NSC) July '50 July '58 Oct. '54 Aug. 4thQ '61 2ndQ '58 IstQ '55 Jun e ' 40 (NA) July '33 '38 (NA) 3rdQ 'U (NSC) '49 Dec. IstQ '50 (NA) 4thQ '27 (NA) (NA) (NA) 3rdQ '24 4thQ '21 (NA) (NA) (NSC) (NSC) (NA) (NA) Feb. '28 Nov. '24 (NA) Apr. '22 , (NA) Sep. '22 NOTE: Specific trough dates are the actuaj dates when individual series reached a trough as distinguished from the reference dates which are those dates designated as the trough of business activity as a whole. This table shows, for the 25 indicators on the NBER "short list," the specific dates corresponding to reference dates in 9 recent business cycles. NA= Not available. 70 NSC= No specific cycle corresponding to reference date. Appendix B.-SPECIFIC TROUGH AND PEAK DATES FOR SELECTED BUSINESS INDICATORS-Continued Specific peak dates for reference contractions beginning inSelected series May 1960 July 1957 July 1953 Nov. 1948 May 1937 Aug. 1929 Oct. 1926 May 1923 Jan. 1920 NBER LEADING INDICATORS 1. Average workweek, production workers, manufacturing 30. Nonagricultural placements, all industries. . . 38. Index of net business formation 6. New orders durable goods industries 10. Contracts and orders, plant and equipment* . . 29. New building permits, private housing units. . 31. Change in book value, manufacturing and trade inventories 23. Industrial materials prices 19 Stock prices 500 common stocks 16 Corporate profits after taxes (Q) 17. Ratio, price to unit labor cost, manufacturing 113 Change in consumer installment debt June July Apr. Apr. Sep. Nov. '59 '59 '59 '59 '59 '58 Nov. Nov. Mar. Dec. Nov. Feb. '55 Mar. '53 '55 Feb. '53 '55 Sep. '52 '55 Jan. '53 1 56 May ' 51 '55 Nov. '52 (NA) (NSC) . D e c . '36 Oct. '29 Nov. '25 Nov. '22 (NSC) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) Apr. '^6 (NA) (NSC) Nov. '25 Jan. '23 Aug. '48 Dec. '36 (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) June '48 1 Oct. '47 Feb. '37 Feb. '28 July 25 Jan. '24 July '19 Dec. Nov. July 2ndQ '59 '59 '59 '59 Apr. Dec. July 4thQ '56 '55 '56 '55 July Jan. June 2ndQ June '59 Aug. '59 Oct. '55 Mar. '55 Jan. Feb. Jan. 2ndQ '53 '51 '53 '53 (NA) '-46 '48 Mar. '37 ' 48 Feb. '37 '48 4thQ '36 (NA) Mar. '29 Sep. '29 3rdQ '29 Jan. '51 June '48 Mar. '37 July '29 Dec. '52 Mar. '48 Mar. '36 May ' 29 (NA) '25 (NSC) 3rdQ '26 (NA) (NA) Mar. '23 Apr. '20 Mar. '23 July '19 (NA) 2ndQ '23 Sep. '26 (NA) June '22 Feb. '20 (NA) (NA)' Nov. NBER ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS 41. Employees in nonagricultural establishments, Apr. '60 Mar. '57 June ' 53 Sep. '48 July '37 Aug. '29 Jan. '26 June '23 Jan. '20 (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) Feb. '60 Mar. '57 June ' 53 Jan . ' 48 July '37 43 Unemployment rate total (inverted) (NA') (NSC) (NSC) IstQ '60 3rdQ '57 2ndQ '53 4thQ '48 3rdQ '37 3rdQ '29 50. GNP in 1958 dollars (Q) 47. 52 816. 54 Industrial production Personal income Manufacturing and trade sales Sales of retail stores . . Jan. '60 (NSC) Jan. '60 Apr. '60 Feb. Aug. Feb, Aug. '57 '57 '57 '57 July Oct. July Mar. '53 July '48 May ' 37 July '29 '53 Oct. '48 June '37 Aug. '29 (NA) (NA) '53 Aug. '48 (NSC) Sep. '37 Sep. '29 '53 Mar. '27 May i 23 Feb. '20 (NA) 2ndQ '26 IstQ '24 (NA) (NA) (NA) (NSC) July '20 (NSC) NBER LAGGING INDICATORS 502. Unemployment rate, persons unemployed (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) 15 weeks and over ( inverted). .......... May ' 60 Sep. '57 Oct. '53 Jan. '49 61. Business expenditures, new plant and 2ndQ '60 3rdQ '57 3rdQ '53 4thQ '48 3rdQ '37 2ndQ '29 4thQ '26 2ndQ '23 2ndQ '20 equipment (0) 71. Book value, manufacturing and trade (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) July '60 Sep. '57 Sep. '53 Feb. '49 inventories 62. Labor cost per unit of output, manufacturing 72. Commercial and industrial loans outstanding 67. Bank rates on short-term business loans (Q) Jan. '61 Mar. '58 Mar. '54 Nov. '48 Dec. '37 (NSC) (NSC) July '53 Aug. '48 Sep. '37 (NA) (NA) (NSC) 4thQ '59 Sep. '57 4thQ '57 4thQ '53 2ndQ '49 (NSC) Oct.. '29 Oct. '26 Oct. '23 Nov. (NA) '20 (NA) Oct. '23 Feb. '21 NOTE: Specific peak dates are the actual dates when individual series reached a peak as distinguished from the reference dates which are those dates designated as.the peak of business activity as a whole. This table shows, for the 25 indicators on the NBER "short list," the specific dates corresponding to reference dates in 9 recent business cycles. NA= Not available. NSC= No specific cycle corresponding to reference date. 71 Appendix C.-AVERAGE CHANGES AND RELATED MEASURES FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES Part l.-Average Percentage Changes Period covered Monthly series Cl 1 c I/C I/C for MCD span MCD Average duration of run (ADR) Cl 1 C MCD NBER LEADING INDICATORS *1. *30. 2. 5. Avg. workweek, production workers, mfg Nonagricultural placements, all industries Accession rate manufacturing Average weekly initial claims, State unemployment insurance 3 Layoff rate manufacturing *38 Index of net business formation 13. New business incorporations *6 New orders durable goods industries 94 Construction contracts value *10 Contracts and orders plant and equipment 24. New orders, mach. arid equip, industries 9. Construction contracts, commercial and industrial, floor space 7. Private nonfarm housing starts *29 New building permits private housing 37. Purchased materials, percent reporting higher inventories 26. Buying policy, production materials, commitments 60 days or longer ; 32. Vendor performance, percent reporting slower deliveries , *23 Industrial materials prices *19. Stock prices, 500 common stocks *17 Ratio price to unit labor cost manufacturing 14 Liabilities of business failures 39. Delinquency rate, installment credit loans Jan. '53-June '66-Jan. '53-Sep. '65.. Jan. '53-June'66.. .47 1.83 4.62 .41 1.34 4.38 .18 1.09 ,1.44 2.30 1.23 3.04 3 2 4 .76 .63 .79 2.21 2.11 2.21 1.40 1.52 1.50 10.73 7.24 11.50 4.18 3.97 3.76 Jan. '53-Sep. '65.. Jan. '53-June '66.. 4.95 8. 75 4.38 7.96- 2.17 3.23 2.02 2.47 2 3 .95 .76 1.69 2(.27 1.42 1.53 12.67 10.73 3.97 4.82 Jan. Jan. Jan. Jan. Jan. Jan. .79 2.49 3.76 6.64 4.69 4.18 .60 2.18 3.33 6.38 4.39 3.81 .53 1.00 1.51 1.55 1.43 1.52 1.15 2.18 2.20 4.12 3.08 2.51 2 3 3 5 4 3 .66 .78 .66 .87 .84 .88 2.71 1.92 1.81 1.55 1.88 1.83 1.63 1.63 1.58 1.52 1.71 1.60 6.61 7.24 8.44 8.00 9.50 .10.86 4.08 3.19 4.41 3.15 3.39 3.41 Jan. '53-Sep. '65.. May'59-Sep. '65 .. Jan. '53-June'66.. 9.30 7.16 3.70 9.17 7.08 3.31 .97 .89 1.30 9.41 7.91 2.54 6 6 3 t1) C1) .82 1.60 1.38 1.87 1.48 1.38 1.55 12.67 15.20 12.38 3.00 2.63 3.06 Jan. '53-Sep. '65.. 6.46 5,24 2.84 1.85 3 .76 2.37 1.62 7.60 3.57 Jan. '53-Sep. '65.. 5.27 4.77 1.98 2.41 3 .77 1.88 1.63 8,94 3.49 '53-Sep. '65.. 7.47 '53-Sep. '65- 1.31 '53-Sep. '65- 2.49 .62 '53-Oct. '66'53-Sep. '65- •18.74 '53-Dec. '65.. 2.63 5.79 1.04 1.68 .51 18.24 2.42 4.00 .73 1.64 .27 1.70 .95 1.45 1.41 1.02 1.93 10.72 2.55 2 2 2 3 6 3 .95 .99 .57 .92 .80 3.17 2.49 2.37 2.62 1.49 1.85 1.85 2.11 1.58 1.70 1.39 1.57 8.94 11.69 9.50 5.69 8.94 8.44 3.77 3.87 3.97 4.18 2.23 4.17 Jan. '53-Dec. '66.. Jan. '53-Sep. ' 6 5 . . Jan. '53-Dec. '66Jan. '53-June '66. . Jan. '53-Dec. '66. . Jan. '53-Dec. '66.. 3.12 3.00 .44 .31 .35 3.94 1.77 1.87 .31 .14 .29 3.05 2.34 2.30 .31 .27 .21 2.16 .76 .81 1.00 .52 1.42 1.41 1 1 2 1 2 2 .76 .81 .51 .52 .75 .72 3.27 3.10 2.98 5.19 2.09 2.53 1.70 1.39 1.52 1.50 1.55 1.44 9.82 8.94 12.85 17.89 27.83 7.95 3.27 3.10 5.03 5.19 4.05 4.05 Jan. '53-Sep. '65Nov. '54-Dec. '66-. Jan. '53-Sep. '65Jan. '53-June '66- . Jan. '53-June '66. . 4.19 5.07 1.02 .53 .84 2.19 4.38 .54 .27 .50 3.29 2.55 .76 .46 .64 .67 1.72 .71 .58 .78 1 2 1 1 1 .67 .92 .71 .58 .78 4.90 3.37 3.62 4.88 2.93 ,1.75 1.48 1.67 1.56 1.56 7.60 11.69 23.00 14.64 4.90 4.11 3.62 4.88 2.93 Jan. '53-Dec. '66.. Jan. '53-Sep. '65.. Jan. '53-Sep. '65.. 1.02 .97 1.45 .74 .83 .54 .62 .44 1.28 1.19 1.88 ,42 2 3 1 .62 .70 .42 2.35 2. OS 5.63 1.50 1.57 1.57 15.20 10.86 3.69 4.84 5.63 Jan. '53-Dec. '66. . .17 .11 .13 .84 1 .84 3.88 1.64 9.82 3.88 .13 4.46 .82 .93 1.10 1.25 1.12 1.60 1.41 1.90 2 2 3 2 3 .77 .73 .74 .98 .87 3.27 2.53 2.54 2.76 2.58 1.78 1.77 1.85 2.00 1.88 10.44 4.61 3.68 3.78 3.68 3.66 Jan. Jan. Jan. Jan. Jan. Jan. '53-Sep. '53-Sep. '53-Sep. '53-Sep. '53-Sep. '53-Sep. '65 . . '65.. '65 . . '65.. '65.. '65 . . C1) NBER ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS 301. 46. 511. *41. 42. *43. Nonagricultural job openings unfilled Help-wanted advertising Man-hours in nonfarm establishments Employees in nonagricultural establishments Total nonagricultural employment Unemployment rate, total 45. Average weekly insured unemployment rate, State programs 40. Unemployment rate, married males *47. Industrial production *52. Personal income 53, Wage and salary income in mining, mfg., and constr. *816. Manufacturing and trade sales *54. Sales of retail stores 96. Unfilled orders, durable goods indus 55. Wholesale prices, industrial commodities 58. 114. 116. 115. 117. Wholesale prices, manufactured goods Treasury bill rate Corporate bond yields Treasury bond yields Municipal bond yields See footnotes at end of table. 72 Jan. Jan. Jan. Jan. Jan. '53-Dec. '66.. '53-Sep. '65, . '59-June '66. . '53-Sep. '65.. '53-SeD. '65.. .20 6.70 1.58 1.65 2.46 .16 5.00 1.31 1.31 2.08 a. 53 8.79 6.61 12.71 8.00 8.00 Appendix C.-AVERAGE CHANGES AND RELATED MEASURES FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES-Continued Part l.-Average Percentage Changes-Continued Period covered Monthly series Cl c 1 I/C I/C for MCD span WICD Average duration of run (ADR) Cl 1 C MCD NBER LAGGING INDICATORS *5Q2. Unemployment rate, 15 weeks and over 505. Machinery and equip, sales and business construction expenditures *71. Book value, mfg. and trade inventories 65. Book value, manufacturers' inventories of finished goods *62. Labor cost per unit of output, manufacturing 66. Consumer installment debt *72. Com. and Indus, loans outstanding, weekly reporting large commercial banks, . 118. Mortgage yields, residential Jan.'53-Dec. '66.. 6.52 5.25 Jan. '53-Dec. '66.. Jan. '53-Dec. '66.. 1.63 1.32 4.16 .54 .18 .89 .50 Jan. '53-Dec. '66.. .62 .28 .55 Jan. '53-Sep. '65. . Jan. r 53-Sep. '65. . .51 .84 .37 .1.1 .30 .82 Jan. '53-Dec. '66 Jul. '61-Sep. '65.. .95 .46 .07 .83 .11 .12 .14 .94 .1.1 1.26 2 .64 4,07 1.55 7.95 1.49 .36 2 1 .75 .36 1.96 7.26 1.50 1.58 18.56 23.86 3.32 7,26 .52 1 .52 3.63 1,42 15 . .18 3.63 2 1 .72 .14 2.54 3.81 .11.69 1.57 1.63 7.86 .14 21.71 11.69 .55 .65 1 1 .55 .65 10.00 1,50 1.92 .83 1 4 .83 .91 3.98 1,78 1.62 1.66 (X) .85 .86 1.43 1.63 1.83 1.59 1.35 1.55 1.62 1.43 16.67 1.26 4.07 5 . 72 23.86 4.07 5.56 10.00 9.82 3.98 4.06 OTHER SELECTED U.S. SERIES 81. Consumer prices 86. Exports, excluding military aid 861. Export orders, durables except motor vehicles '. and parts 862. Export orders nonelectrical machinery . . 87. General imports 83 Federal cash receipts from public 82. Federal cash payments to public 91. Defense Department obligations, total 90. Defense Dept. obligations, procurement 99. New orders, defense products 92. Military contract awards in U.S. Jan. '53-Dec. '6& . Jan. '53-Oct. '64.. .19 3.81 3.56 Oct. (62-Dec, '66. . 12.45 6.32 Jan. '57-Dec. '66 Jan. '53-Oct. '64.. 3.04 Jan. '55-Dec. '64.. 3.87 12.28 Jan. '53-Sep. '65.. Jul. '53-Sep. '65.. Jan. '56-Sep. '65.. Jan. '53-Sep. '65.. Jan. '53-Sep. '65. . 6.10 • 2.87 3.80 4.42 4.25 13.86 27.42 22.53 24.51 ,13.59 27.34 22.53 24.35 3.77 7.80 3.31 3.59 6.37 1.57 1.84 .80 .60 .82 1.26 2.16 1.92 2.94 ''6 4 4 6 C1) 1 14.10 9.92 10.85 14.87 2.37 3.05 • 3.54 3.3.3 C ) 8.28 6 6 6 6 6 ( xx ) ( 1) Cx ) () 1.57 1.40 1.43 1.57 1.63 1.45 1.42 1.43 1.48 1.57 8.00 6.64 8.92 9.50 8.44 2.53 2.07 2.02 2.53 2.83 1.58 2.41 1.55 2.02 1.01 2.24 1.96 2 3 2 3 2 3 3 .79 .86 .87 .64 ,47 .84 .67 3.38 2.58 3.62 1.52 1.48 1.73 1.62 1.37 1.45 1.69 21.71 .10.13 25.33 19.00 13.82 16.89 16.89 4.87 5.17 5.81 5.00 5.21 6.00 4.84 5.16 10.77 12.68 11.72 INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS OF INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION 123. Canada 122. United Kingdom 121. OECD European countries 125 West Germany 128. Japan 126 France 127 Italy Jan. Jan, Jan. Jan. Jan. Jan. Jan. '53-Sep. '53-Sep. '53-Sep. '53-Sep. '53-Sep. '53-Sep. '53-Sep. '65. . '65.. '65. . '65.. '65.. '65.. '65.. .93 .82 1.08 1.02 .86 1.51 1.73 1.45 1.50 .77 ' 1.33 1.23 1.38 1.40 .52 .42 .49 .66 1.22 .62 .72 3.38 2.67 2.49 Average duration of run (ADR) TTc" Period covered Quarterly series cT T C [7c for QCD span QCD • 2.71. Cl I C QCD NBER LEADING INDICATORS 11. New capital appropriations, manufacturing *16 Corporate profits after taxes 22. Ratio, profits to income originating, 110 Total private borrowing • IQ'53-IIIQ'65. 1Q'53-1Q'66 10.36 5.56 irr^-ivo'fiG IQ'53-IQ'66 4.18 5.71 IQ'53-IVQ'66 10.9" IQ'53-IQ'66 IQ'53-IQ'66 IQ'53-IQ'66 IQ'53-IIIQ'65 1.54 1.28 1.37 6.63 4.70 2.95 7.69 4.26 .61 .69 l l .61 .69 2.94 3.06 1.32 1.27 3.33 5.20 2.94 3.06 2.69 3.60 6.31 2.99 3.70 7.99 .90 .97 .79 l l l .90 .97 .79 2.36 2.50 2.20 1.30 1.31 1.22 6.50 4.23 3.67 2.36 2.50 2.20 1.45 1.14 1.32 6.38 .24 .31 .23 .19 l l l l .24 .31 .23 .19 5.78 3.47 1.33 1.33 1.21 1.32 7.43 5.78 5.78 3.47 NBER ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS 49 *50 57 97. GNP in current dollars GNP in 1958 dollars Final sates Backlog of capital appropriations, manufacturing . .34 .35 .30 1.20 ' 10.40 4.17 10.40 10.40 8.33 4.17 See footnotes at end of table. 73 Appendix C-AVERAGE CHANGES AND RELATED MEASURES FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES-Continued Part 1.-Average Percentage Changes-Continued Average duration of run (ADR) • i/r Quarterly series Period covered Cl 1 17c C for QCD span QCD Cl 1 C QCD NBER LAGGING INDICATORS *61. Business expenditures, new plant and equipment 68. Labor cost (cur. dol.) per unit of gross product (1958 dol.), nonfinancial corporations *67. Bank rates on short-term business loans 3.21 .77 IQ'53-IVQ'66 .85 .40 IQ'53-IIIQ'65 1.99 IQ'53-IVQ'66 2.34 IQ'53-IIIQ'65 . 2.99 .26 1 .26 5.56 1.47 5.56 5.56 .69 .57 1 .57 2.89 1.28 4.23 2.89 .96 1.80 .54 1 .54 2.38 1.47 3.33 2.38 .87 1.89 .46 1 .46 2.62 1.34 4.58 2.62 OTHER SELECTED U.S. SERIES 101. National defense purchases, current dollars *Series included in the 1966 NBER "short list" of 25 indicators. The following are Drief definitions of the measures shown in this table. More complete explanations appear in Electronic Computers and Business Indicators, by Julius Shiskin, issued as Occasional Paper 57 by the National Bureau of Economic Research., 1957 (reprinted from Journal of Business, October 1957). "CX", is the average month-to-month (or quarter-to-quarter) percentage change, without regard to sign, in the seasonally adjusted series. "I" is the same for the irregular component, obtained by dividing_the cyclical component into the seasonally adjusted series. "C" is the same for the cyclical component, a smooth, flexible moving average of the seasonally adjusted series. "MOD" (months for cyclical dominance) provides an estimate of the appropriate time span over which to observe cyclical movements in a monthly series. It is small for smooth series and large for irregular series. In deriving MOD, percentage changes are computed separately for the irregular component and the cyclical component over 1-month spans (Jan.-Feb., Feb.Mar., etc.), 2-month spans (Jan.-Mar., Feb.-Apr., etc.), up to 12-month spans. Averages, without regard to sign, are then computed for the changes over each span. MOD is the shortest span in months for which the average percentage change (without regard to sign) in the cyclical component is'larger than the average percentage change (without regard to sign) in the irregular component, and remains so. Thus, it indicates the point at which fluctuations in the seasonally adjusted series become dominated by cyclical rather than irregular movements. All series with an MCD greater than "5" are shown as "6". Similarly, "QCD" provides an estimate of the appropriate time span over which to observe cyclical movements in quarterly series. It is the shortest span (in quarters) for which the average percentage change (without regard to sign) in the cyclical component is larger than the average percentage change (without regard to sign) in the irregular component, and remains so. "I/C" is a measure of the relative smoothness (small values) or irregularity (large values) of the seasonally adjusted 74 shown for series when MOD is "6" or more. series. For monthly series, it is shown for 1-month spans ana for spans of the period of MCD. When MCD is "6", no I/C ratio is shown for the MCD period. For quarterly series, I/C is shown for 1-quarter spans and QCD spans. "Average Duration of Run" (ADR) is another measure of smoothness and is equal to the average number of consecutive, monthly changes in the same direction in any series of observations. When there is no change between 2 months, a change in the same direction as the preceding change is assumed. The ADR is shown for the seasonally adjusted series Cl, irregular component I, cyclical component C, and the MCD curve. The MCD curve is an unweighted moving average (with the number of terms equal to MCD) of the seasonally adjusted series. A comparison of these measures of ADR with the expected ADR of a random series gives an indication of whether the changes approximate those of a random series. Over 1-month intervals in a random series, the expected value of the ADR is 1.5. The actual value of ADR falls between 1.36 and 1.75 about 95 percent of the time. Over 1-month intervals in a moving average (MCD) of a random series, the expected value of ADR is 2.0. For example, the ADR of Cl is 1.69 for the series on average weekly initial claims, State unemployment insurance (series 5). This indicates that 1-month changes in the seasonally adjusted series, on the average, reverse sign about as often as expected in a random series. The ADR measures shown in the next two columns, 1.42 for I and 12.67 for C, suggest that the seasonally adjusted series has been successfully separated into an essentially random component and a cyclical (nonrandom) component. Finally, ADR is 3.97 for the MCD moving average. This indicates that a 2-month moving average of the seasonally adjusted series (2 months being the MCD span) reverses direction, on the average, about every 4 months. The increase in the ADR from 1.42 for Cl to 3.97 for the MCD moving average indicates that, for this series, month-to-month changes in the MCD moving average usually reflect the underlying eyelieal trend movements of the series, whereas the month-to-month changes in the seasonally adjusted series usually do not. Appendix C.-AVERAGE CHANGES AND RELATED MEASURES FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES-Continued Part 2.-Average Unit Changes Period covered Monthly series Unit of measure Cl 1 C I7c MCD Average duration of run (ADR) I/C for MCD span Cl 1 C MCD NBER LEADING INDICATORS *31. Change in book value, manufacturing and trade inventories Jan. '53-Sep. '65 Ann. rate, bil.dol.. 20. Change in book value of manufacturers' inventories of materials supplies 25. Change in unfilled orders, dur. goods industries. 98* Change in money supply and time deposits Jan. '53-Sep. '65 ... do ... Jan. '53-Sep. '65 Bil. do!.. Jan. '53-Sep. '65 Ann. rate, percent . f 85. Change in total money supply 33. Change in mortgage debt Jan. 53-Sep. '65 ... do ... Jan. '55-Dec. '66 Ann rate bil.dol.. Jan. ' 53-Sep. 'B5 ' . . .do- . . Aug. '59-Dec. '66 . . . do • • • *113. Change in consumer installment debt 112. Change in business loans 3.68 3.58 .74 4.87 5 .98 1.51 1.43 9.06 2.65 1.51 1.44 .48 .46 .29 .13 4.97 3.51 6 4 C1) .98 1.67 1.69 1,50 1.62 6.08 7.60 3.00 3.10 2.56 2.58 .29 8.91 6 C1) 1.42 1,37 10.87 2.59 1 3.15 3,17 .33 9.61 6 C ) 1.39 1.39 10.87 2.47 1.31 1.22 3.58 2.56 4.56 4 3 6 .93 .92 .90 1.52 1.65 1.60 1.39 11.92 1.49 10.13 1.66 8.00 2.69 3.13 4.15 .87 .79 2.22 2.10 .34 .31 .46 Jan. '53-Sep. '65 Mil. dol . . 98.01 78.89 46.86 1.68 3 .68 2.03 1.60 10.13 3.49 58.44 55.87 17.28 3.23 3 .97 1.82 1.61 9.42 2.64 4.34 4.22 .82 5.16 5 .98 1.59 1.43 7.44 2.74 NBER ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS 93 Free reserves OTHER SELECTED U.S. SERIES 88 Merchandise trade balance 84. Federal cash surplus or deficit ... Jan '53-June '62 ... do ... Jan." '55-Oec. '64 Ann. rate, bil. do!.. 17c Quarterly series Period covered Unit of measure ci c" T iTc Average duration of run (ADR) for QCD span Cl 1 C 2 .48 1.73 1.37 4.00 2 2 .45 ,55 1.67 2.00 1.25 3.13 1.41 2.67 2.72 2.56 1 .76 2.17 1.37 3.71 2.17 QCD QCD NBER LEADING INDICATORS 21. Change in business inventories, all industries 1Q'53-IQ'66.... Ann. rate, bil. dol.. 2.28 1.43 1.37 1.04 2.83 OTHER SELECTED U.S. SERIES 89. U.S. balance of payments: a Liquidity balance basis b. Official settlements basis IQ'53-IIIQ'65... Mil. dol.. 340.64 225.64 216.94 1.04 ...do... 492.17 302. 66 286.13 1.06 IQ'60-IQ'66 95. Fed. balance, nat'l. income and product acct. . . 1Q'53-IQ'66.... Ann. rate, bil. do!.. 2.50 ^Series included in the 1966 NBER "short list11 of 25 indicators. The measures in the above table are computed "by an additive method to avoid_ the distortion caused by zero and negative data. Thus,, "CI11 is the average month-to-month (or quarterto-quarter) change in the seasonally adjusted series. This average is computed without regard to sign and is. expressed in the same unit of measure as the series itself, "C11 is the same for the cyclical component, which is a moving average of the 1.37 1.81 .76 shown for series when MCD is "6" or more. seasonally adjusted series. "I" is the same for the irregular component, which is determined "by subtracting the cyclical component from the seasonally adjusted series. All other measures shown above have the same meaning part 1. as in 75 Appendix D.-CURRENT ADJUSTMENT FACTORS FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES (MAY 1966 TO JUNE 1967) 19f)7 19()6 Series May June July Aug. Sept. Oct. 105.2 84.5 98.8 76.7 92.2 86.9 93.9 5. Average weekly initial claims, State unemployment insurance 13. New business incorporations1 102.4 105.6 14 Liabilities of business failures 18. Profits per dollar of sales, mfg.2 104 3 111 1111 2 111 8 100 3 96.7 106.1 30 Nonagricultural placements all industries1 33. Net change in mortgage debt held by financial institutions and life insurance companies 3 . . . 110 7 109 8 101.3 37. Purchased materials, percent of companies reporting higher inventories 39. Delinquency rate, 30 days and over, total ' installment loans 4 81.1 82.6 95.4 40. 15. 107 9 101 6 100 1 97 5 95 9 87 3 133. 154. 83. Federal cash receipts from the public 5 90. Defense Department obligations, procurement 1897 862. Index of export orders nonelectr ical machinery D34. Profits, manufacturing (FNCB) ? 157. 74 0 -\~\'-) f. % May 92.7 91.5 98.5 79.2 81.2 106.1 104.4 June 105.3 139.0 146.3 86.3 99.3 112.0 91.3 99.8 83.2 96.7 80.2 -96. 309. 88 7 89 8 101 9 106 6 107 7 114 4 107 8 101 6 109.1 91 2 102.0 109 6 97.4 AC.C, 16^ 117.2 95.2 82 3 88 2 100 2 78 4 -390. -336. 109.4 ^.Q/^Q 1 3 "n 2181 98 9 98 9 94 0 Apr. Jan. 98 9 98 8 100 1 99 3 100 0 101 7 94 5 118 3 97 4 104 0 98 7 102 1 -*W3 4431 93 8 199 6 Mar. Dec. 97.2 98.6 92.3 99 8 100 7 100 3 104 7 112 Change in business loans6 301. Nonagricultural job openings unfilled 114 0 121 6 111 0 • 34. 72. Commercial and industrial loans outstanding 82. Federal cash payments to the public 1 91. Defense Department obligations total 92. Military contract awards in U.S 84.4 Feb. Nov. 92 6 100.4 -13. 109.5 99 3 94 1 •2964 75 7 93 7 100 4 120 0 106.1 9. 113.1 110 3 25. 92.1 91.9 99 8 101 3 94 4 95 2 153. 99 9 99 $ 100 7 94 0 103 4 105 5 ??^ft -1689 1897 67 8 101 1 in^ n QC / y qi "ITI 5 q ?nn i on n ~\ j c *7 on rt 1 e*n Q loU.o on n Q7 9 Q1 Q Qn OC on n QJ n »7Q rf 1 nn "1 i nn jT 1UU. 1 pipi o QQ J QQ O QQ .Ao QQ QQ .0 A i nn o 1 pip, -] yy yy .yQ yy J.UU.,3 1 -i o i iin i i n*5 *5 rtn O i on "3 i n/ i i n9 n Q*5 .Qy rtp, -i y^j QQ A i nn o T nn o 1UO.<£ i nn *5 XUU.<i ~\ nn A 10U.3 -UJQ.o 01 '/ CtQ } 1/0 O 1 Q-j I no p. nc q QQ A on o itn o 7 yj . D Q-3 C T OD.l 1 pifY i nn n QQ ft QC C> Q J J QQ J QQ n +6 QO A Q n f\-\ r QQ .Tj. 1UJL yy *D 1 5 pi SA n T n£ Q QQ 7 no £ y*c .0 pin.0 n l^U. i on JJ*3 iuy ys.x i QC Q m .yo 1 /°\ j o 1U4. _J i nn j lUU. i nno 9 T1UJ.1 m T 1UU.4 +1 A * * * NOTE: These data are not published by the source agency in seasonally adjusted form. Seasonal adjustments were made by the Bureau of the Census or the National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. They are kept current by the Bureau of the Census. Seasonally adjusted data prepared by the source agency will be substituted whenever they are published. For a description of the method used to compute these factors, see Bureau of the Census Technical Paper No. 15, The X-ll Variant of the Census Method H Seasonal Adjustment Program. factors are products of seasonal and trading-day factors. Seasonally adjusted data resulting from the application of these combined factors may differ slightly from those obtained by separate applications of seasonal and trading-day factors due to rounding. 2 Quarterly series; figures are placed in middle month of quarter. 3 These quantities, in millions of dollars, are to be subtracted from the month-to-month net change in the unadjusted monthly totals to yield the seasonally adjusted net change. They were computed by the additive version of the X-ll variant of the Census Method U seasonal adjustment program. ^Bimonthly series. Data are for even-numbered months (February, April, june; etc.). -"These quantities, in millions of dollars, are to be subtracted from the original monthly data to yield the monthly seasonally adjusted data. They were computed by the additive version of the X-ll variant of the Census Method U seasonal adjustment program. 6 Factors apply to monthly totals before month-to-month changes are computed. 7 l-quarter diffusion index: Figures are placed on the 1st month of the quarter. The unadjusted diffusion index is computed and the factors, computed by the additive version of the X-ll variant of the Census Method n seasonal adjustment program,, are subtracted to yield the seasonally adjusted index. 76 Appendix E.-PERCENT CHANGE FOR SELECTED SERIES OVER CONTRACTION AND EXPANSION PERIODS OF BUSINESS CYCLES: 1920 TO 1961 Percent change: Reference peak to reference trough *41. Employees in nonagri. establishments Contractions: Reference peak to reference trough *43. Unemployment rate, total *47. Index of industrial production *50. GNP in 1958 dollars (Q)1 49. GNP in current dollars (Q)1 (NA) -0.3 +2.3 -28.0 -8.9 -19.7 -2,3 +0.4 -49.6 -11.9 -21.9 0.0 +0.9 -50.8 -10.9 (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) -4.3 -1.9 0.0 -43.5 -17.3 +7.9 24.0 +2.2 +25.4 +8.8 "3.2 2 1.9 3 0.0 11.2 11,9 ?5.5 2 4,1 25,4 20.0 1.1 3.8 2.6 4.2 5,1 3.3 7.9 6.0 7.4 6'. 9 3.5 3.9 4.0 7.2 7.6 7.2 *52. Per- *816. Manufacturing sonal and trade income sales *54. Sales of retail stores Change in rate, peak to trough Jan. May Oct. Aug. May 1920-JuIy 1921 1923-July 1924 1926-Nov. 1927 1929-Mar. 1933 1937-June 1938 -31.6 -10.4 -31.6 -18.0 -5.9 -51.8 -31.7 Feb Nov July July May 1945-Oct 1948-Oct 1953-Aug 1957-Apr 1960-Feb 19454 1949 1954 5 1958 1961 -7.9 -5.1 -3.4 -3.9 -1.9 -31.4 -8.5 -9.1 -14.1 -5.7 (NA) -1.6 -2.2 -3.4 -1.4 -10.9 -3.4 -0.8 -1.8 -0,2 -4.0 -4.7 0.0 +0.2 +0.9 (NA) -7.5 -7.2 -6.8 -3.1 +8.6 -0.5 -0.5 -2.4 -2.7 +2.2 +4.1 +3.4 +3.2 +1.8 -5.6 -6.5 -3.6 -16.0 -16.0 -8.8 -1.9 -2.1 -1.9 -2.8 -2.8 -1.3 -2.0 -2.4 +0.1 -7.0 -5.8 -7.0 -2,2 -2.6 -1.4 +3.3 +3.6 +3.3 (NA) (NA (NA) Median:6 All contractions Excluding postwar contractions . 4 contractions since 1948 *41. Employees in nonagri. establish, ments *47. Index of industrial production *50. GNP in 1958 dollars (Q)1 49. GNP in current dollars (Q) 1 *52. Per- *816. Manufacturing sonal and trade income sales 2 +2.3 2 3 Rate at trough 2 *43. Unemployment rate, total Percent change: Reference trough to reference peak Expansions: Reference trough to reference peak 2 Rate at peak *54. Sales of retail stores Change in rate, trough to peak Rate at trough Rate at peak %- w July July Nov. Mar June 1921-May 1924-Oct. 1927-Aug. 1933-May 1938-Feb. 1923 1926 1929 1937 19454. (NA) (NA) +40.2 +45.9 +64.2 +30.4 + 24.1 +119.9 +183.3 (NA) +12.4 +12.6 +42.1 (NA) + 25.1 +14.7 +13.3 +73.9 +169.6 +29.6 + 13.2 +12.2 +76.3 +157.3 (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) +15.7 +9.9 +3.6 +69.2 +105.4 -3.6 2 -0.9 -14.2 -18.9 11.9 2 5.5 2 4.1 25.4 20.0 Oct Oct' Aug Apr 1945-Nov 1949-July 1954-July 1958-May 1948 19535. 1957 1960 +17.2 +17.8 +8.9 +6.9 + 21.9 +50.0 +19.7 + 25.2 +3.3 +28.8 +11.8 +11.4 +34.9 +44.1 +22.4 +15.1 +28.5 +41.4 +22.1 +13.3 (NA) +50.0 +22.6 +16.2 +63.8 + 25.6 +20.3 +11.9 +0.3 -5.3 -1.8 -2.3 3.3 7.9 6.0 7.4 +17.5 +13.0 +13.0 +35.2 +26.6 + P3.6 +12.3 +12.1 +11.6 + 27.5 +20.9 + ?3.fi +26.7 +21.3 + ?s ^ +29.6 +19.4 (NA) + 20.5 +16.0. -3.7 -2.6 ? n 7.1 6,3 3.3 3.7 A 7 ^ Q • Median:6 All expansions Excluding wartime expansions . . 4 exnansions since 1945 + 9?.n 2 -8.7 2 2 ?3.2 2 1.9 3.2 11.2 1.1 2 3 3 3.6 2.6 4.2 5.1 NOTE: For series with a "months for cyclical dominance" (MCQof "1* or "2" (series 41,43,47,52, and 816), the figure for the reference peak (trough) month is used as the base. For series with an MCD of "3" or more (series 54), the average of the 3 months centered.on the reference peak (trough) month is used as the base. The base for quarterly series (series 49 and 50) is the reference peak (trough) quarter. See also MCD footnote to appendix C. *Series included in the 1966 NBER "short list"of 25 indicators. NA=Not available. 1 The most recent quarterly reference dates are as follows: 2d quarter 1958 (trough); 2d quarter 1960 (peak); and 1st quarter 1961 (trough). For earlier dates, see Business Cycle Indicators (NBER) vol. 1, p.670. 2 Based on average for the calendar year. 3 Differs from figure for same date in expansion (contraction) part of table because of change in series used. 4 World War II contraction or expansion period. 5 Korean War contraction or expansion period. 6 The median is an average of the middle 2 or 3 items, Source: National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. 77 Appendix F.-HISTORICAL DATA FOR SELECTED SERIES Historical data and latest revisions are presented when available. See the Series Finding Guide for the publication date of the latest historical data for each series. Current data are shown in tables 2 and 4. Data are seasonally adjusted. Year Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May June July Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec. 9. Construction contracts awarded f or . commercial and industrial buildings, floor space (Mil. sq. f t . ) 1948 1949 .... 1950 . . . . 1951 .... 1952 .... 1953 .... 27.99 18.80 17.93 -42.80 16.62 24.17 17.52 17.29 36.59 19.21 28.67 22,51 19.66 23.84 30.42 19.71 24.35 25.63 19.16 27.04 27.22 21.44 26.66 30.12 16.54 28.14 25.27 19.26 29.92 25.08 17.67 27.86 24.71 23.86 19.44 16.22 27.47 22.33 21.61 39.18 22.89 12.56 34.46 22.32 24.16 25.90 23.39 18.95 31.05 25.26 21.34 27.37 23.18 16.90 31.55 19.42 24.32 31.05 1954 .... 1955 .... 1956 .... 1957 .... 1958 . . . . 1959 .... 26.79 32.13 33.99 41.22 31.53 31.93 22.22 35.09 38.65 40.20 29.91 32.16 23.99 32.04 42.51 37.83 29.63 35.11 27.18 31.51 42.21 31.94 26.25 41.92 29.81 31.37 34.17 35.90 28.70 38.55 29.77 34.64 35.68 40.66 25.54 34.19 25.97 37.49 35.31 33.55 30.12 37.64 27.62 35.49 37.06 33.38 34.02 34.14 28.28 40.27 36.81 31.51 30.33 38.38 31.17 34.45 30.90 30.98 33.07 41.44 1960 .... 1961 . . . . 1962 .... 37.32 36.21 38.70 44.61 50.88 52.94 36.93 36.49 42.75 36.73 37.49 45.90 39.42 48.65 54.41 38.73 35.62 42.7?, 40.23 49.12 57.74 40.31 39.25 35.16 36.73 41.16 44.64 47.00 ' ' 51.39 46.86 49.99 57.72 57.52 38.87 36.57 40.56 45.78' 53.40 56.68 39.38 39.32 42.69 4-4.93 49.28 52.00 38.96 38.73 40.96 43.88 51.21 62.97 39.44 33.88 41.08 50.81 53.46 60.55 1963.;.. 1964 .... 1965 .... 29.14 45.11 49.10 54.89 31.41 ' 20.72 17.82 34.19 16.21 26.95 18.28 18.09 27.93 25.74 34.00 18.45 37.36 26.15 31.62 35.17 31.30 35.91 33.31 32.67 30.76 36.03 32.73 29.06 39.44 39.44 38.15 41.69 41.89 41.61 42.20 43.73 52.57 61.74 45.43 57.91 64.13 10. Contracts and orders for plant and equipment (Bil. dol.) 1948 .... 1949 .... 1950 .... 1.60 1.61 2.72 1952 .... 1953 .... 1.50 1.31 1.60 3.43 2.51 2.84 1.72 1.42 1.60 3.51 2.55 2.88 1.66 1.41 1.74 3.19 2.59 2.64 1.84 1.21 1.74 3.21 2.56 2.88 1.59 1.25 2.16 4.36 2.39 2.76 1.84 1.37 2.09 2.98 2.69 2.16 1.68 1.26 2.53 2.84 2.76 2.66 1.60 1.36 3.20 2.73 2.48 2.23 1.59 1.49 3.01 2.36 3.34 2.57 1.62 1.43 2,71 2.63 2.50 2,72 1954 .... 1955 .... 1956 .... 1957 .... 1958 .... .1959 .... 2.20 2.50 3.35 3.65 2.77 3.09 2.24 2.72 3.26 3.55 2.67 3.19 1.91 3.15 3.28 3.52 2.66 3.73 1.96 2.93 3.40 3.15 2.69 3.35 2.00 2.80 3.56 3.29 2.72 3.46 2.05 2.99 3.60 3.13 2.85 3.54 2.15 2.97 3.43 3.06 2.75 3.61 2.15 3.15 3.41 2.31 3.33 3.33 2.83 3.22 3.14 3.63 2.43 3.20 3.34 2.89 3.04 3.50 2.89 3.00 3.30 2.40 3.45 3.53 2.74 2.91 3.49 1960 .... 1961 .... 1962 .... 1963 .... 1964 .... 1965 .... 3.27 3.51 3.71 3.35 3.39 3.98 3.82 4.14 4.67 3.27 3.20 3.71 3.75 4.11 4.84 3.52 3.28 3.96 3.98 3.51 3.27 3.76 4.28 4.63 5.02 3.41 3.39 3.66 3.96 4.64 4.81 3.41 3.57 3.72 3.94 4.52 5.16 3.41 3.66 3.61 3.91 4.53 4.90 3.44 3.40 3.56 4.08 4.51 5.15 3.34 3.48 3.66 4.17 4.56 5.13 3.20 3.66 3.82 4.32 4.92 5.05 3.49 3.50 3.99 4.56 4.94 5.35 1951.... 3.84 4.38 4.72 4.36 4.98 3.13 3.13 2.63 2.36 2.34 2.25 3.45 3.79 1.59 1.46 3.00 2.83 2.83 2.14 (May 1967) 78 INDEX SERIES FINDING GUIDE {PAGE NUMBERS. See table of contents (page i) for chart, table, and appendix titles) Economic Process Group and Series Title (See complete titles and sources on back cover) Charts Timing classification Tables Appendixes Issue I. EMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT *L 30. 2. 5. 3. 601. 46. Avg. workweek, production workers, mfg. Nonagricultural placements, all indus. Accession rate, manufacturing Initial claims, State unemploy. insurance Layoff rate, manufacturing Nonagri. job openings unfilled Help-wanted advertising , L ... 9 L ... 9 L ... 9 L ... 9 L ... 9 C ... 17 C .,. 17 11. 41. 42. 43. 45. 40. 02. Man-hours in nonfarm establishments Employees in nonagri, establishments Total nonagricultural employment Unemployment rate, total Avg. weekly insured unemploy. rate, State Unemployment rate, married males. Unemploy. rate, 15 weeks and over C ... C ... C ... C ... C. C ... Lg... 17 17 17 is 64 66 67 is 22 6 6 6 6 6 7 29 29 29 29 29 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 37 70-1 70-1 70-1 70-1 70-1 72 72 72 72 72 72 72 76 76 76 72 72 72 72 72 72 73 77 77 72 66 72 66 72 76 66 Sept. '66 Oct. !631 Sept. '66 July '631 Sept. '66 Apr. '67 Feb. '641 77 72 72 72 66 72 76 Apr. '67 Sept. !66 Feb. '67 Feb. '67 Mar. '641 Feb. '67 Apr. '67 71 72 70 72 72 77 72 72 Aug. July Sept. Aug. Aug. Apr. Aug. Apr. 74 66 65 June '65 Aug. '631 May '64 78 68 66 May '67 Nov. '64 Dec. '631 II. PRODUCTION, INCOME, CONSUMPTION, AND TRADE 49. GNP in current dollars 50. GNP in 1958 dollars 47. Industrial production C. C. C ... 53. 16, 57. 54. C. C ... 19 C ... 19 C ... 19 52. Personal income. Wages and salaries, mining, mfg., constr. Manufacturing and trade sales Final sales Sales of retail stores 18 66 66 C ... 19 66 35 35 35 35 35 35 35 35 70-1 70-1 70-1 70-1 70-1 73 73 72 72 72 72 73 72 77 77 77 77 77 77 '65 '66 '64 '65 '65 '67 '65 '66 III. FIXED CAPITAL INVESTMENT 38. 13. *6. 94. 10. 11. 24. Index of net business formation New business incorporations New orders, durable goods industries Construction contracts, value Contracts and orders, plant and equipment New capital appropriations, mfg New orders, mach. and equip, industries L L L L L L ... 10 ... 10 ... 10 ... 10 ... 10 ... 11 L ... n 9. 7. 29. 96. 97. 61. 05. Construction contracts, comm. and indus Private nonfarm housing starts New building permits, private housing Unfilled orders, durable goods industries Backlog of capita! appropriations, mfg Bus. expenditures, new plant and equip Mach. and equip, sales and bus. constr. expend L ... L ... L ... C ... C ... Lg... Lg..•. 11 n 11 20 20 22 22 L ... L ... L ... L ... L ... L ... L .... Lg... Lg... 12 12 12 12 12 13 13 22 22 64 64 67 29 29 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 36 36 37 37 70-1 70-1 70-1 70-1 70-1 72 72 72 72 72 73 72 76 72 72 72 72 73 74 73 78 74 74 66 68 65 76 75 75 72 75 72 72 75 73 73 71 72 68 64 65 66 66 73 72 May July June June Nov. June Apr. '67 '65 '65 '64 '64 ' 64 '67 IV. INVENTORIES AND INVENTORY INVESTMENT 21. 31. 37. 20. 26. 32. 25. 71. 65. Change in business inventories Change, mfg. and trade inventories Purchased materials, higher inventories. Change, mtls. and supplies inventories Buying policy, production materials. Vendor performance, slower deliveries Change in unfilled orders, durable goods Book value, mfg. and trade inventories Mfrs.' inventories, finished goods, book value 64 31 31 31 31 31 31 31 37 37 70-1 70-1 76 Aug. '65 Nov. '66 June '631 June '64 June '64 Mar. '641 Dec. '631 Apr. '67 Apr. '67 *Series preceded by an asterisk (*) are on the 1966 NBER "shortlist" 9* 25 indicators, pleading, Oroughly coincident, Lg = lagging, ^unclassified ("other selected U.S. series" and "international jmparisons"). 1Appendix G in this issue. 2 A description of this series is contained in the July 1964 issue of BCD (appendix G). 79 SERIES FINDING GUIDE-Continued (PAGE NUMBERS. See table of contents (page i) for chart, table, and appendix titles) Charts Timing classification Economic Process Group and Series Title (See complete titles and sources on back cover) Appendixes Tables Page Issue V. PRICES, COSTS, AND PROFITS *23. *19. *16. 22. 18. *17. 55. 58. 68. *62. 81. Industrial materials prices Stock prices, 500 common stocks Corporate profits after taxes Ratio, profits to income originating, corporate Profits per dollar of sales, mfg Ratio, price to unit labor cost, mfg Wholesale price index, industrial commodities. Wholesale price index, manufactured goods Labor cost per unit of gross product, nonfin. corporations Labor cost per unit of output, mfg Consumer prices L .,. L ... L ... L ... L ... L ... C ... C ... Lg... Lg... U ... 13 13 14 14 14 14 20 20 23 23 24 Change, money supply and time deposits Change, total U.S. money supply Change, mortgage debt Change, consumer installment debt Change, business loans22 Total private borrowing Liabilities of business failures. Delinquency rate, instal. loans, 30 days and over L L L L L L L L ... ... .., ... ... ... ... ••• 15 15 15 15 15 16 16 16 Free reserves Treasury bill rate 2 . 2 Corporate bond yields2 Treasury bond yields Municipal bond yields 2 Consumer installment debt Comm. and indus. loans outstanding Bank rates on short-term business loans Mortgage yields, residential 2 C ... C ... C ... C ... C ... Lg... Lg... Lg... Lg... 21 21 21 21 21 23 23 23 23 U ... U ... U ... U ... U... U ... U ... 24 24 24 25 25 25 25 U ... U ... U ... U ... U ... U••• U.- • U -. U ... 26 26 26 26 27 27 27 27 27 U ... U... U ... U ... U ... U !!! U ! ].' 28 28 28 23 28 28 28 65 65 65 67 68 70-: 70-: 32 32 32 32 32 32 36 36 38 38 39 72 72 70-1 73 73 73 70-1 72 72 72 74 70-1 73 73 33 33 33 33 33 33 33 33 76 76 76 76 76 74 73 73 76 66 66 71 74 71 72 73 72 72 72 73 VI. MONEY AND CREDIT 98. 85. 33. *113. 112. 110. 14. 39. 93. 114. 116. 115. 117. 66. *72. *67. 118. 65 67 36 36 36 36 36 38 38 38 38 70-1 70-1 70-1 76 73 73 73 73 74 74 75 74 76 76 76 76 76 73 72 71 71 75 73 66 71 66 71 72 72 72 70 73 70 72 VII. FOREIGN TRADE AND PAYMENTS 89. U.S. balance of payments: a. Liquidity balance basis b. Official settlements basis 88. Merchandise trade balance. 86. Exports, excluding military aid 861. Export orders, durable goods, except motor vehicles 862. Export orders, nonelectric machinery 87. General imports 39 39 39 39 39 39 39 76 76 76 74 74 74 74 40 40 40 40 40 40 40 40 40 76 76 74 74 75 74 74 74 74 41 41 41 41 41 41 41 74 74 74 74 74 74 74 76 74 72 74 73 77 78 74 VIII. FEDERAL GOVERNMENT ACTIVITIES 95. 84. 83. 82. 101. 91, 90. 99. 92. Fed. balance, nat'l. income and prod, account Federal cash surplus or deficit Federal cash receipts from public Federal cash payments to public National defense purchases, current dollars Defense Department obligations, total Defense Dept. obligations, procurement New orders, defense products Military contract awards in U.S 68 76 76 76 76 76 72 72 72 72 74 70 70 66 70 IX. INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS 123. 122. 121. 125. 128. 126. 127. Industrial Industrial Industrial Industrial Industrial Industrial Industrial production, Canada production, United Kingdom production, OECD-Europe production, West Germany production, Japan production, France production, Italy .'...!'. .' 67 67 75 67 68 75 68 *Series preceded by an asterisk (*) are on the 1966 NBER 'shortlist" of 25 indicators. L = leading, = roughly coincident, Lg = lagging, ^unclassified ("other selected U S series" and "internal comparisons jansons ). •'•Appendix G in this issue. ^A descfiption of this series is contained in the July 1964issue iss of BCD (appendix G). 80 SERIES FINDING GUIDE-Continued (PAGE NUMBERS. See table of contents (page i) for chart, table, and appendix titles) Timing classification Economic Process Group and Series Title (See complete titles and sources on back cover) Tables Charts Appendixes F 1 2 1 3 2 4 5 48 48 49 49 • 43 48 52-3 52-3 61 61 52-5 52-5 B D C E Page Issue DIFFUSION INDEXES Dl. Average workweek D6 New orders 11. Capital appropriations 19. Stock prices n. Industrial materials prices 34 35. 36 41. Profits mfg Net sales, mfrs New orders Employees in nonagrL establishments M . Industrial production 54 Retail sales 58. Wholesale prices, mfg 61. New plant and equipment expenditures 1-month 9-month 9-month. . l-mnnth 9-month. . 45 45 45 45 45 45 l-quarter 3-quarter. . 1-month 9-month. . 1-month. . 9-month. . 45 45 45 45 45 45 1-month 6-month . . 1-month 6-month . . 1-month 9-month.. 1-month 6-month. . 45 47 47 46 46 46 46 47 46 46 46 46 47 - 48 48 62 49 62 49 49 54-5 49 54-5 49 5.1 51 50 56-9 50 56-9 50 58-9 50 58-9 51 50 54-7 50 54-7 50 58-61 50 58-61 51 - - 76 73 73 73 73 72 69 Sept. Sept. May May Apr. Oct. '66 '66 '65 '65 '65 '64 73 73 72 69 72 73 Feb. Feb. Apr. Oct. Apr. Feb. '65 '65 '65 '64 '65 '65 69 70 70 73 73 73 70 68-9 73 70 78 78 69 Oct. Nov. Nov. Sept. Sept. Apr. Oct. Nov. Apr. Oct. Apr. Apr. Nov. '64 '64 '64 '66 '66 '65 '64 ! 64 '65 '64 '67 '67 '64 81 Listings of— Reports and special compendia presenting data from current surveys and census programs Machine-readable data from computer tape files, punchcard decks, A guide book to and special tabulations Selected publications from other CENSUS published and government agencies and from the Congress r1 A T» A T f\f^ unpublished Papers and articles prepared by Census Bureau staff L< A 1 AljUvr statistics Issued quarterly and cumulated to the annual issue, with monthly supplements BUREAU OF THE . .. . . . ORDER FORM BUREAU OF THE CENSUS CATALOG Mail order form with payment to: Superintendent of Documents U.S. Government Printing OHfce Washington, D.C. 20402 or any U.S. Department of Commerce Field Office Make check or money order payable to: SUPERINTENDENT OF DOCUMENTS Subscription Number 1 year 2 years 3 years Price , Amount Publications to be sent to: (Please print or type) $2.25 4.50 6.75 Name and address Add 75$ per year for foreign moi ing City and State ZIP code Total Payment enclosed (Mark one): a Check a GPO coupons CD Money order OR Charge to my Superintendent of Documents Deposit Account Number Titles and Sources of Principal B u s i n e s s Cycle Series ond Diffusion Indexes The numbers assigned to the series are for identification purposes only and do not reflect series relationships or order. "M" indicates monthly series; "Q" indicates quarterly series. Data apply to the whole period except for series designated by "EOM" (end of the month) or "EOQ" (end of the quarter). The Roman numeral identifies the economic process group in which 36 NBER LEADING INDICATORS *1. a series is classified. (See Finding Guide.) Thus, "(M, II)" indicates amonthly series classified in group II. The general classification follows the approach of the National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. The series preceded by an asterisk (*} are included in the 1966 NBER "short list" of 25 indicators. 37. Percent reporting higher inventories, purchased materials (M,lV).-National Association Of Purchasing Agents; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census Average workweek of production workers, manufacturing (M,I).-Department Of LsbOf, Bur63U of Labor Statistics 2. Accession rate, manufacturing (M,l).~Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics 3. Layoff rate, manufacturing (M,l).--Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics *38. index of net business formation (M,ill).-.Dun and Bradstreet, Inc., and Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census and National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. 39. Percent of consumer installment loans delinquent 30 days ond over (EOM,VI).--Americar] Bankers Association; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census and National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. (Bimonthly since December 1964) 5. Average weekly initial claims for unemployment insurance, State programs (M,I).--Department of Labor, Bureau of Employment Security; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census 85. Percent change in total U-S. money supply (demand deposits plus currency) (M,VI).-^Board *6, Volue of manufacturers' new orders, of Governors of the Federal Reserve System durable goods industries (M,lll)."Department Of Commerce, Bureau of the Census 94- Index of construction controcts, total value (M,III),«F.W. Dodge Corporation 7. New private nonfarm housing units started (M,lll),--Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census 98. Percent change in total U.S. money supply (demand deposits and currency) and commercial bank time deposits (M,vi).--Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System 9, Construction contracts awarded for commercial and industrial buildings, floor space (M,lll).- FJ. Dodge Corporation; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census and National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. *10. Contracts and orders for plant and equipment (M,lll).--Department Of Commerce, Bureau Of the Census, and F.W. .Dodge Corporation; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census and National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. 11. Newly approved capital appropriations, 1,000 manufacturing corporations {Q,III).--NatJOn3l 110. Total funds raised by private nonfinancial 112. Net change in bank loans to businesses (M,vl).«Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census *113. Net change in consumer installment debt (M,VI).--Boafd of Governors Of the Federal Reserve System Industrial Conference Board; component industries are seasonally adjusted and added to obtain seasonally adjusted total 13. Number of new business incorporations (M,lll)s--Dun and Bradstreet, Inc.; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census and National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. borrowers in credit markets (Q,V1).—Board Of Governors of the Federal Reserve System 25 NBER ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS 40. Unemployment rate, married males, spouse present (M,I),—Department Of Labor, Bureau Ol Labor Statistics, and Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census Ml. Number of employees in nonagricultural establishments (M,I).-Department of Labor, BUT63U 14. Current liabilities of business failures (M,vi).--Dun and Bradstreet, Inc.; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census and National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. of Labor Statistics 42. Total nonagricultural employment, labor force survey (M,I).-Department Of Labor, Bureau Of *16. Corporate profits after taxes(Q,v).-Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics *17. Price per unit of tabor cost index-ratio, wholesale prices of manufactured goods index (unadjusted) to seasonally adjusted index of compensation of employees (sum of wages, salaries, and supplements to wages and salaries) per unit of output (M,V).—Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics; Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics; and Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System 18. Profits (before taxes) per dollar of sales, all manufacturing corporations (Q,V).~Federal Trade Commission and Securities and Exchange Commission; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census *19. Index of stock prices, 500 common stocks (M,v).--Standard and Poor's Corporation; no seasonal adjustment 20. Change in book value of manufacturers' inventories of materials and supplies (M,IV).-- Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census 21° Change in business inventories, farm and nonfarm, after valuation adjustment (GNP component) (Q,iv),--Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics ment of Commerce, Office of Business Economics *23> Index of industrial materials prices {M,V).--Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics; no seasonal adjustment and equipment industries *43- Unemployment rate, total (M,l).»Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census Statistics, and 45. Average weekly insured unemployment rate. State programs (M,I).-Department Of LabOT, Bureau of Employment Security 46. Index of help-wanted advertising in newspapers (M,l).«National Industrial Conference Board *47. Index of industrial production (M,ll).--Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System 49. Gross national product in current dollars (Q,ll)."Department Of Commerce, Office Of Business Economics *50. Gross national product in 1958 dollars (Q,ll)."Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics *52. Personal income (M,ll).--Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics 22. Ratio of profits (after taxes) to income originating, corporate, all industries (Q,V).--Depart- 24. Value of manufacturers' new orders, machinery Labor Statistics, and Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census 53. Wage and salary income in mining, manufacturing, and construction (M,M).—Department Of Commerce, Office of Business Economics *54. Sales of retail stores (M,N).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census 55. index of wholesale prices, industrial commodities (M,v).-Department of Labor, Bureanof LaborStatistics; no seasonal adjustment (M,|ll)o--Dep3rt- ment of Commerce, Bureau of the Census 25. Change in manufacturers' unfilled orders, durable goods industries (M,IV).-Department Of Commerce, Bureau of the Census 57. Final sales (series 49 minus series 21) (Q,ll).«Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics 58. Index of wholesale prices, manufactured goods (M,V).--Department Of Labor, Bureau Of Labor Statistics; no seasonal adjustment 26. Buying policy-production materials, percent reporting commitments 60 days or longer (M,lv).«National Association of Purchasing Agents; no seasonal adjustment 93. Free reserves (member bank excess reserves minus borrowings) (M,VI).-Board Of GOV6WOrS of the Federal Reserve System; no seasonal adjustment *29. Index of new private housing units authorized by local building permits (M,111).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census *30. Nonagricultural placements, all industries (M,l)..-Department of Labor, Bureau of Employment Security; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census *31. Change in book value of manufacturing and trade inventories, total (M,IV).-Department Of Commerce, Office of Business Economics, and Bureau of the Census 96. Manufacturers' Association; no seasonal adjustment 33. Net change in mortgage debt held by financial institutions and life insurance companies (M,vi).--lnstitute of Life Insurance, Federal National Mortgage Association, National Association of Mutual Savings Banks, U.S. Savings and Loan League, ana Board, of Governors of the Federal Reserve System; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census and National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. orders, 97, Backlog of capital appropriations, durable goods industries (EOM,III).--Department of manufacturing (EOQ,lll).--National Industrial Conference Board; component industries are seasonally adjusted and added to obtain seasonally adjusted total 114. Discount 32. Vendor performance, percent reporting slower deliveries (M,lV).--ChicagO Purchasing Agents unfilled Commerce, Bureau of the Census rate on new issues of 91-day Treasury bills {M,VI).-Board Of Governors Of the Federal Reserve System; no seasonal adjustment 115. Yield on long-term Treasury bonds (M,vi).-Treasury Department; no seasonal adjustment 116. Yield on new issues of high-grade corporate bonds (W,VI).-First National City Bank Of New York and Treasury Department; no seasonal adjustment 117. Yield on municipal bonds, 20-bond average (M,vi).»The Bond Buyer;no seasonal adjustment Continued on reverse UNITED STATES GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE POSTAGE AND FEES P A I D U.S. GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE DIVISION OF PUBLIC DOCUMENTS WASHINGTON, D.C. 20402 OFFICIAL BUSINESS FIRST CLASS MAIL Titles and Sources of Principal Business Cycle Series and Diffusion Indexes—Continued 16 OTHER SELECTED U.S. SERIES-Continued 25 NBER ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS-Continued 301. Nonagricultural job openings unfilled (EOM, I).--Department of Labor,Bureau of Employment Security; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census 87. General imports, total (M,vil).--Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census 88. Merchandise trade balance (series 86 minus series 87} (M,VII).--Department Of Commerce, Bureau of the Census 511. Man-hours in nonfarm establishments, all industries (M,I).--Department of Labor, Bureau Of Labor Statistics 89. Excess of receipts or payments in U.S. balance of payments (Q,VII) 0 --Department Of Commerce, Office of Business Economics *816- Monufocturing and trade sales (M,ll).--Departmen®0f Commerce, Office of Business Economics and Bureau of the Census 90. Defense Department obligations, procurement (M,VIII).--Department Of Defense, FJSCal Analysis Division; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census 91. Defense Department obligations, total (M,Vlll).--Department of Defense, Fiscal Analysis Division; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census 11 NBER LAGGING INDICATORS *61. Business expenditures on new plant and equipment, total (Q,til).--Department of Commerce, 92. Military prime contract awards to U.S. business firms {M,VIU).--Department Of Defense, Directorate for Statistical Services; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census Office of Business Economics, and the Securities and Exchange Commission *62. Index of labor cost per unit of output, total manufacturing-ratio, index of compensation of employees in manufacturing (the sum of wages and salaries and supplements to wages and salaries) to index of industrial production, manufacturing (M,V).»Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics, and the Board of Governors Reserve System of the Federal 95. Surplus or deficit, notional income and product account (Q,Vlll).--Department Of Commerce, Office of Business Economics 99. New orders, defense products (M, vil).--Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census 101. Federal purchases of goods and services, (EOM,lv).--Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census 861. 66. Consumer installment debt (EOM,Vl).--Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. FRS seasonally adjusted net change added to seasonally adjusted figure for previous month to obtain current figure *67. national defense (Q,VIII).--DepartfTieilt Of Commerce, Office of Business Economics 65. Book value of manufacturers' inventories of finished goods, all manufacturing industries Manufacturers' new orders for export, durable goods except motor vehicles and parts (M,vil).--Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census; no seasonal adjustment 862. Index of export orders for nonelectrical machinery (M, VH).--McGraW-Hill, Department Of Economics; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census Bonk rates on short-term business loans, 19 cities (EOQ,VI).-Board Of Governors Of the 7 INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS Federal Reserve System; no seasonal adjustment 68. Loborcost (current dollars) perunitof gross product (1958 dollars), nonfinancial corporations (ratio of current-dollar compensation of employees to gross corporate product in!958 dollars) 121. Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, European Countries, index of industrial production (M,tx).--0rganization for Economic Cooperation and Development (Q,V).-- Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics, National Income Division *71» Book value, manufacturing and trade inventories, total (EOM,IV),--Department Of Commerce, Office of Business Economics and Bureau of the Census *72. Commercial and industrial 122. United Kingdom, index of industrial production{M,IX).--Central Statistical Office (London) 123. Canada, index of industrial production (M,IX).-Dominion Bureau Of Statistics (Ottawa) 125. West Germany, index of industrial production (M,IX).-StatJStiSCheS Bundesamt (Wiesbaden); seasonally adjusted by OECD loans outstanding, weekly reporting large commercial banks <EOM,vD--Boardof Governors of the Federal Reserve System; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census and National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. 118. Secondary market yields on FHA mortgages (M,vi).--Federal Housing Administration; no seasonal adjustment *502. Unemployment rate, 15 weeks and over (M,i).--Department Statistics of Labor, Bureau of Labor 126. France, index of industrial production {M,IX).-IflStltut National de la StatJStique et des Etudes Economiques (Paris) 127. Italy, index of industrial production (M,IX).--IStltUtO Cciltrale di StatJStica (Rome) 128. Japan, index of industrial production (M,ix).--Ministry of International Trade and Industry (Tokyo) . . . 505. United States, index of industrial production (M,ll).--See Series 47. Manufacturers' machinery and equipment sales and business construction expenditures (industrial, commercial, and public utility construction put in place) (M,III).--Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census 16 OTHER SELECTED U.S. SERIES 81. Index of consumer prices (M,v).--Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics; no seasonal adjustment DIFFUSION INDEXES 82. Federal cash payments to the public (M,vill)---Treasury Department, Bureau of Accounts, and Executive Office of the President, Bureau of the Budget; seasonal adjustment by the Bureau of the Census The "D" preceding a number indicates a diffusion index. Diffusion indexes and corresponding business cycle series bear the same number and are obtained from the same sources. See sources above for Dl, D5, 06, Dll, D19, D23, D41, D47, D54, D58, and D61. Sources for other diffusion indexes are as follows: 83. Federol cosh receipts from the public(Q,M,Vlll).~Treasury Department, Bureau of Accounts, and Executive Office of the President, Bureau of the Budget; seasonal adjustment by the Bureau of the Census 84. Federal cash surplus or deficit (Q,M,VHl).--Treasury Department, Bureau of Accounts, and Executive Office of the President, Bureau of the Budget; seasonal adjustment by the Bureau of the Census 86. Exports, excluding military aid shipments, total {M,vil).--Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census D34. Profits, manufacturing, FNCB (Q),--First National City Bank of New York; no seasonal adjustment of series components. Diffusion indexes are seasonally adjusted by Bureau of the Census and National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. D35. Net soles, total manufactures (Q).--Dun and Bradstreet, Inc.; no seasonal adjustment D36, New orders, durable manufactures (Q).--Dun and Bradstreet, Inc.; no seasonal adjustment D48. Freight corloodings (Q) e --Association of American Railroads; no seasonal adjustment