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U.S. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE
Alexander B. Trowbridge, Acting Secretary
William H. Shaw, Asst. Secy., Economic Affairs
BUREAU OF THE CENSUS
A. Ross Eckler, Director
Howard C. Grieves, Deputy Director
Morris H. Hansen, Asst. Director for Research and Development
JULIUS SHISKIN, Chief Economic Statistician
'1ft-
PREFACE
This report brings together many of the available
economic indicators in convenient form for analysis and interpretation.
The presentation and classification of series follow the business indicators
approach. The classification of series and the business cycle turning dates
are those designated by the National Bureau of Economic Research
(NBER) which, in recent years, has been the leader in this field of investigation. However, this publication is not to be taken as implying acceptance
or endorsement by the Bureau of the Census or any other government
agency of any particular approach to business cycle analysis. It is intended
only to supplement other reports of the Department of Commerce that
provide data for analyzing current business conditions.
The unique features are the arrangement of data according to their
usual timing relations during the course of the business cycle and the inclusion of special analytical measures and historical cyclical comparisons
that help in evaluating the current stage of the business cycle. In addition the movements of the series are shown against the background of the
expansions and contractions of the general business cycle so that "leads"
and "lags" can be readily detected and unusual cyclical developments
spotted.
About 90 principal series and over 300 components are included
in preparing the report. The exact number of series included for the total
and important classes of series may vary from month to month because of
additions of new series and revisions in the composition of indexes. Almost all of the basic data are available in published reports. A complete
list of series and the sources of data is shown on the back cover of this
report. Series are seasonally adjusted except those that do not appear
to contain seasonal movement.
The chief merits of this report are the speed with which the data
are collected, assembled, and published and the arrangement of the series
for business cycle studies. Publication is scheduled for around the 22d of
the month following the month of data.
March 1967
DATA THROUGH FEBRUARY
Series ESI No. 67-3
New Features and Changes for This Issue
3 Census Projects on Economic Fluctuations
iii
iv
Descriptions and Procedures
Introduction
Method of Presentation
Designation of Business Cycle Turning Points
Seasonal and Related Statistical Adjustments
MCD Moving Averages
Analytical Measures of Current Change
Comparisons of Cyclical Patterns
Charts
How to Read Charts 1 and 2
1
1
2
2
2
3
4
5
6
Data
TABLE 1. Changes Over 4 Latest Months
CHART 1. Business Cycle Series From 1948 to Present
TABLE 2. Latest Data for Business Cycle Series
8
10
24
Analytical
TABLE
CHART
TABLE
TABLE
3.
2.
4.
5.
Distribution of "Highs" for Current and Comparative Periods _ _
Diffusion Indexes From 1948 to Present
Latest Data for Diffusion Indexes
Selected Diffusion Indexes and Components
ABOUT THE COVER—
Series in this publication are grouped according to their usual timing and
shown against the background of contractions and expansions in general
business activity. The cover design illustrates this concept. The black vertical
bar represents a contraction; the top curve, the Leading Series which usually
fall before a contraction has begun and rise before it has ended; the middle
curve, the Coincident Series which usually fall with the contraction period;
the bottom curve, the Lagging Series which fall after a contraction has
begun and rise after it ends.
38
39
42
46
CONTENTS
CONTINUED
CycHcai Comparisons
CHART 3. Comparisons of Reference Cycles
TABLE 6. Comparisons From Reference Peak Levels and Reference
Trough Dates
TABLE 7. Comparisons From Reference Trough Levels and Reference
Trough Dates
_^
58
62
63
Appendixes
Appendix A. Business Cycle Expansions and Contractions in the
United States: 1854 to 1961
Appendix B. Specific Trough and Peak Dates for Selected
Business Indicators
Appendix C. Average Changes and Related Measures for Business
Cycle Series
Appendix D. Current Adjustment Factors for Business Cycle
Series
Appendix E. Percent Change for Selected Series Over Contraction
and Expansion Periods of Business Cycles:
1920 to 1961
65
66
67
7C
71
Index
Series Finding Guide
73
11
^ A limited number of changes are made from time to time to reflect the
change from one stage of the business cycle to another, to show new findings
of business cycle research and newly available economic series, or to emphasize the activity of a particular series or series group. Such changes may
involve additions or deletions of series used, changes in placement in relation
to other series, changes in components of indexes, etc.
Changes in this issue are as follows:
The series on foreign trade (series 86, 87, and 88)
have been revised for the period 1953 to date. Revisions
are shown in this issue for the period beginning January
1965. Revisions for the earlier period will be shown in
a subsequent issue. These revisions take into account
all corrections which have come to light since the
figures were originally published and reflect new seasonal adjustment factors which have been updated to
include monthly information through 1966. Further
information concerning these revisions may be obtained
from the Bureau of the Census, Foreign Trade Division.
ANNOUNCEMENT:
REVISED LIST OF INDICATORS
A revised list of leading, roughly coincident, and
lagging indicators and other selected series will be
shown in the April issue of BUSINESS CYCLE DEVELOPMENTS.
All of the series within each of the above timing groups
will also be classified under eight economic processes
(i.e., employment and unemployment; production, income,
consumption, and trade; fixed capital investment; inventories and inventory investment; prices, costs, and
profits; money and credit; foreign trade and payments;
and Federal Government activity).
Research work for the revised list was carried out by
the National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. (NBER),
a private, nonprofit organization which has been conducting research studies in the field of business cycle
analysis and compiling lists of economic indicators for
nearly 50 years. Their 1966 list is the result of a
periodic review of available indicators of aggregate
economic r^tivity. The method of preparing the new list,
the reasons for adding certain series and dropping
others, and an explanation of the expanded classification
system used are described in a new publication, INDICATOP£ OF BUSINESS EXPANSIONS AND CONTRACTIONS, published
by the National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.,
261 Madison Avenue, New York, N.Y., 10016.
The April issue of BUSINESS CYCLE DEVELOPMENTS will be
released on April 26—a little later than usual—to
provide time to make changes necessary to show the
revised list of indicators. (See above.)
in
CENSUS METHOD !i ADJUSTMENT PROGRAM. A time series computer
program for measuring and analyzing seasonal, trading-day, cyclical, and
irregular fluctuations and the relations among them. This program is
particularly useful in analyzing economic fluctuations which take place
within a year.
The latest variant, X - l l , has greater generality and scope than any of the
earlier programs. It can adjust quarterly as well as monthly series and series
with negative and positive numbers as well as those with positive numbers
alone. The X-ll version measures and adjusts not only for seasonal variations, but also for trading-day variations. Further, it computes many summary
and analytical measures of the behavior of each series. The program includes
various techniques, such as F tests and variance analysis, for use in extending
the scope of time series studies and is written in a simplified computer language—Fortran IV. The program deck can be purchased from the Census
Bureau at cost.
I
1
|
I
BUSINESS CYCLE DEVELOPMENTS. A monthly report for analyzing economic
fluctuations over a short span of years.
i
This report brings together several hundred monthly and quarterly "economic indicator" series for the analysis of short-term economic trends and
prospects. These series have been selected, tested, and evaluated, after half
a century of continuing research, as the most useful and reliable for this
purpose. The publication provides not only the basic data, but also various
charts and analytical tables to facilitate such studies. In addition, a time
series punch-card file, a diffusion index program, and a separate summarymeasures computer program are available for those who wish to carry on
further research in business cycle analysis.
LONG TERM ECONOMIC GROWTH. An annual report for the study of
economic fluctuations over a long span of years.
This report has been developed from available statistics to provide a comprehensive, long-range view of the U.S. economy. It has been planned,
prepared, and published as a basic research document for economists, historians, investors, teachers, and students. It brings together for the first time
under one cover, in meaningful and convenient form, the complete statistical
basis for a study of long-term economic trends. It is a unique presentation
of the full range of factors required for an understanding of our country's
economic development. Some of the statistical series go back to 1860.
IV
INTRODUCTION
Students of economic conditions describe the business
cycle as consisting of alternating periods of expansion
and contraction in production, employment, income,
money flows, prices, and other economic processes.
The fluctuations take place in a concerted manner, but
not simultaneously. Once an expansion gets underway,
it spreads from firm to firm, from industry to industry,
from area to area, and from process to process, cumulating until a cyclical peak in aggregate activity is
reached. Even while expansion is widespread during
the upward phase of the business cycle, some activities
continue to move in the opposite direction. Declines
begin to spread as the expansion nears its peak and
continue to spread even faster after the peak has been
passed. But some activities continue to expand during
the general contraction. Before long these expansions
become stronger and more widespread. When they
begin to dominate the situation, the upturn in aggregate
activity has arrived and a new expansion is underway.
This sequence is recurrent, but not periodic.
The causal relations among these various economic
processes are primarily responsible for the cumulative
nature of cyclical forces, and explain why expansion
eventually turns into recession and recession into expansion. Cyclical fluctuations in production and employment are preceded by fluctuations in measures
which relate to future rather than to current production—measures such as new orders for durable goods,
the formation of new business enterprises, and accessions to payrolls. They are followed by fluctuations
in various types of economic costs, such as labor costs,
interest rates, fulfillment of long-term commitments,
and holdings of inventories and of debts.
tivity. The series have been grouped and classified
by the NBER as "leading", "roughly coincident", or
"lagging" indicators. These indicators are defined as
follows:
fa
NBER Leading Indicators.—Series that usually
reach peaks or troughs before those in aggregate
economic activity as measured by the roughly coincident series (see below). One group of these
series pertains to activities in the labor market,
another to orders and contracts, and so on.
I**
NBER Roughly Coincident Indicators.—Series
that are direct measures of aggregate economic
activity or move roughly together with it; for example, nonagricultural employment, industrial
production, and retail sales.
$*•
NBER Lagging Indicators.—Series, such as new
plant and equipment expenditures and manufacturers' inventories, that usually reach turning
points after they are reached in aggregate economic activity.
Other U.S. series with business cycle significance are
included in this report. Some of these series, such as
change in money supply, merchandise trade balance,
and cash surplus or deficit, represent important factors
in the economy, but they have not qualified as indicators
for various reasons, such as irregularity in timing.
Finally, industrial production indexes for several countries which have important trade relations with the
United States are presented.
The list of series covered and sources of the basic
data are shown on the back cover of this report. Series
numbers are for identification only and do not reflect
series relationships or order.
Although this pattern has been characteristic of
American economic history, today many economists
do not consider it inevitable.
Intensive research by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) over many years has provided
a list of those significant series that usually lead, those
that usually move with, and those that usually lag
behind cyclical movements in aggregate economic ac
Data are shown in this report in three general categories,
as follows:
Basic Data (chart 1 and tables 1 and 2).—Data
are shown for business cycle indicators, additional
U.S. series with business cycle significance, and
industrial production indexes for selected countries. Together, they provide a broad view of
current and prospective business cycle fluctuations in the economy as well as the basis for
making an economic interpretation of these fluctuations.
^
Analytical Measures (chart 2 and tables 3 to 5).—
These are measures that aid in forming a judgment of the imminence of a turning point in the
business cycle, determining the extent of current
changes in different parts of the economy, and
pointing to developments in particular industries
and places.
^
Cyclical Patterns (chart 3 and tables 6 and 7).—
Current cyclical levels are compared with levels at
corresponding stages of earlier cycles. These comparisons are made in different ways depending
upon the phase of the business cycle.
In addition to the data shown as part of the regular
report, certain appendix materials are presented. These
materials include historical data, key information, and
adjustment factors.
TUHNNG
The business cycle turning dates used in this report are
those designated by the NBER. They mark the approximate dates when aggregate economic activity reached its
cyclical high or low levels. As a matter of general
practice, a business cycle turning date will not be designated until at least 6 months after it has occurred.
Monthly business cycle peaks and troughs have been
dated by the NBER for the period 1854-1961. Over
this span, expansion has prevailed 61 percent of the
time and contraction, 39 percent. If war periods are
disregarded, expansion has prevailed 56 percent of the
time and contraction, 44 percent.
SEASONAL AND
STATISTICAL ADJUSTMENTS
Adjustments for normal seasonal fluctuations are often
necessary to bring out the underlying cyclical trends
of a series. Such adjustments allow for periodic intrayear variations resulting chiefly from normal differences
in weather conditions during the year and from various institutional arrangements. Some series contain
considerable variation attributable to the number of
working or trading days in each month. An additional
adjustment is necessary in such cases to reduce this
variation. Variations due to holidays are usually accounted for by the seasonal adjustment process; how-
ever, there are some cases in which a separate holiday
adjustment is necessary for holidays with variable dates.
Such a case is retail sales of apparel which is affected
strongly by the date of Easter and, to a lesser degree, by
the dates of Labor Day and Thanksgiving.
In general, the seasonal adjustment process is designed to adjust for average weather conditions but
not for the dispersion about that average. Thus, some
seasonally adjusted series, such as housing starts, will
tend to be low in months of unusually bad weather and
high during unusually good weather. At the Bureau
of the Census, studies have been started on some series
to determine the effects of abnormal weather. Although it eventually may be possible, Census methods
do not at present make any adjustments for such
variations.
Most of the series contained in this report are presented in seasonally adjusted form. Unadjusted data
are used only for those series which appear to have no
pattern of seasonal variation. (Unadjusted series are
identified in table 2.) In most cases, the seasonally
adjusted data used for a series are the official figures
released by the source agency; therefore, several different methods of seasonal adjustment are involved.
In addition, for the special purposes of business cycle
studies, a number of series that are not ordinarily published in seasonally adjusted form are shown on a
seasonally adjusted basis in this report. For these
series, seasonal adjustments have been developed by
either the NBER or the Census Bureau. The adjustment factors for these series, derived by Census Method
II, are shown in appendix D. Factors for series which
are the sums of seasonally adjusted components or
which are based on unpublished source data are not
shown.
MCB MOVING
MCD (months for cyclical dominance) is an estimate
of the appropriate span over which to observe the cyclical movements in a monthly series. This span is usually
longer than a single month because month-to-month
changes are often dominated by erratic movements, but
shorter than the frequently used 12-month span (change
from the same month a year ago), and is different for
different series (see appendix C for .MCD values and
method of computation).
MCD is, on average, the first span of months for
which the average change for the cyclical factor is
greater than that of the irregular factor and remains so.
It is small for smooth series and large for irregular
series. The month-to-month differences between moving averages of the period equal to MCD are commensurate with the differences between seasonally
adjusted values separated by the same MCD span;
thus, the month-to-month differences in a 3-month
moving average are commensurate with differences in
seasonally adjusted values over 3-month spans. MCD
moving averages all have about the same degree of
smoothness. Consequently, MCD moving averages of
highly irregular series, such as business failures and
Federal cash payments, will show their cyclical movements about as clearly as the seasonally adjusted data
for such smooth series as industrial production.
MCD moving averages are shown in chart 1 for all
series with an MCD of "5" or more. To provide an
indication of the variation about these moving averages,
seasonally adjusted data are also plotted beginning
with 1958. Although not so smooth as more powerful
moving averages (such as the weighted 13-term Henderson curve), the MCD curve is more current and has a
smaller rounding bias around business cycle peaks and
troughs. On balance, the MCD curve seems to offer a
reasonable compromise in terms of currency, smoothness, and fidelity to the patterns of business cycle fluctuations.
Because of advance reporting and preliminary seasonal factors, the MCD's for current data are usually
larger than those computed from historical series and
shown in appendix C. MCD is usually computed for a
fairly long period, one covering both expansions and
contractions. Since the pace of change varies from
phase to phase of the business cycle, such a measure will
not provide an accurate estimate of the span over which
to estimate cyclically significant changes at all times.
Thus, MCD computed for the period 1953-63 is likely
to be too high during the early stages of recovery when
expansion has usually been rapid and too low during
the late stages of expansion when the rate of advance
has usually been small. This limitation should be borne
in mind when making use of this measure.1
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
OF CURRENT CHANGE
Three kinds of analytical measures are presented—timing distributions, diffusion indexes, and directions of
change. These measures aid in forming a judgment of
the current changes compared to previous changes, the
imminence of a turning point in the business cycle, and
the extent of current changes in different parts of the
economy. They also point to developments in particular industries and places.
1
For a more complete description of MCD and its use in
studying economic series, see Business Cycle Indicators,
Geoffrey H. Moore, editor; National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc., vol. 1, ch. 18, "Statistics for Short-Term Economic
Forecasting," by Julius Shiskin (Princeton University Press:
1961).
Timing Distributions
Distributions of current "highs" appear to be helpful
in appraising the evidence for a prospective business
cycle turning point. Each month a timing distribution
is constructed. This timing distribution shows the number of series reaching new highs and the percent currently high for each of several recent months (see table
3). Similar distributions of "lows" will be presented
during contractions.
To provide historical perspective for interpreting the
distribution of current highs, such distributions are
also shown for leading and coincident series as they
appear 3 months and 6 months before the peak of
each of the earlier post-World War II expansions and
at their peaks.
To compile timing distributions for the current
cyclical phase, the data for the leading and roughly
coincident business cycle indicators are scanned each
month. During a business cycle expansion, the date of
the high value for each series is recorded. (For inverted
series—that is, series with negative conformity to the
business cycle—dates of low values are taken.) If the
values for 2 or more months are equal, the latest date
is taken as the high month. In selecting these values,
erratic values may be disregarded, although it is, of
course, difficult to identify an erratic value, particularly
for the current month.
The letter "H" is used in table 2 to identify and
highlight the current high values during the expansion.
The highs designated during the current cyclical phase
will not necessarily be the specific cycle peaks. (See
appendix B.) As new high levels are reached during
the expansion, the current highs will be moved ahead.
Comparisons of the current timing distributions with
those for periods around earlier business cycle peaks
are helpful for appraising the evidence of a prospective
business cycle turning point.
Interpretations of timing distributions must be made
in light of the fact that a contraction following a high
value reached several months ago may be the result
of an erratic fluctuation and that a new high may be
reached in some future month. In short, when the
percent currently high falls below 50 percent for both
the leading and roughly coincident series, this does
not necessarily signify that a business cycle peak has
occurred. It may do so, but it may simply reflect a
short reversal in the upward movement.
Diffusion Indexes
Diffusion indexes are simple summary measures of
groups of economic series. They express, for a given
aggregate series the percent of the series components
which have risen over given spans of time. Their turning points tend to lead the turning points of the
aggregate and they measure how widespread a business
change is. They vary between the limits of 100 (all
components rising) and zero (all components falling). Widespread increases are often associated with
rapid growth and widespread declines with sharp reductions in aggregate activity.
The diffusion indexes in this report are grouped
according to the timing classification of the NBER.
For monthly series, comparisons are made over 1month spans (January-February,
February-March,
etc.) and generally for either 6- or 9-month spans,
depending upon the irregularity of the series. The
indexes based on 1-month spans are more "current"
but they are also more irregular than the 6- or 9month indexes. (See chart 2.) Quarterly series are
compared over 1-quarter spans, 3-quarter spans, and
4-quarter spans.
Recent research has shown that the longer-span
diffusion indexes are not only smoother, but have
systematically larger amplitudes than the 1-month indexes. The 1-month indexes generally have large irregular fluctuations, but the movements may be significant when important changes are taking place, particularly around cyclical turning points. Since the
longer-span diffusion indexes are centered, there is
an apparent loss in currency equal to one-half the
span; for example, 3 months in the case of a 6-month
diffusion index. However, the most recent figure for
a 6-month or longer-span index does provide the latest
available information on changes over that span. If a
significant reversal has taken place within that span,
the 1-month indexes are likely to reveal it. Presentation of both 1-month and longer-span diffusion indexes
provide^ an opportunity for the user to take advantage
of the best features of each in interpreting current
changes.
Series numbers preceded by the letter "D" designate
diffusion indexes. When one of these numbers corresponds to the number of a basic indicator series,
it means that the diffusion index has been computed
from components of the indicator series; for example,
the diffusion index numbered "D6" is computed from
components of series 6. Diffusion indexes not computed from basic series components are assigned new
numbers.
Diffusion indexes that are based on business expectations show what proportion of business enterprises
(or industries) are forecasting a rise in activity. Comparisons with indexes based on actual changes show
whether there is a generally optimistic bias or a lag
in recognition of actual developments.
Diffusion-Index Components
Many of the component series used to make up the
diffusion indexes are shown in table 5. Where possible,
recent basic data for the components are shown in
part A. In part B, directions of change in these
components are indicated for consecutive months and,
depending upon the irregularity of the diffusion index,
for either 6- or 9-month spans. The directions of
change are indicated by " + " for rising, "o" for unchanged, and "—" for falling. (In counting the number of components rising, a "o" is counted as onehalf.)
This table provides a convenient view of changing
business conditions and is helpful in making an economic interpretation of the movements in the more
highly aggregated statistical measures. That is, it
shows which economic activities went up, which went
down, and how long such movements have persisted.
The table also helps to show how a recession or recovery spreads from one sector of the economy to
another.
COMPARISONS
OF CYCLICAL
In forming a judgment about the current intensity
and probable ultimate character of a cyclical fluctuation, some economists find it helpful to compare the
behavior of the various series in the current business
cycle phase with their behavior during the corresponding phase of previous business cycles. These comparisions are made in different ways depending upon
whether the current cyclical phase is an expansion or
contraction.
Expansions are compared in one way by measuring
changes from the immediately preceding peak levels.
In table 6 of this report, data for the latest month
in the current expansion (shown by number of months
from the February 1961 trough) are compared with
the May 1960 reference peak. For each earlier expansion, data for a like period (same number of
months from the trough of the expansion) are compared with the preceding reference peak. This type
of comparison js designated as changes computed
from reference peak levels and reference trough dates.
This type of comparison shows whether, and by how
much, the current level of activity exceeds or falls
short of the level at the preceding business cycle
peak, and how the current situation compares, in this
respect, with earlier expansions. For those earlier
periods of expansion that were shorter than the current
one, the comparisons reflect status at reference peak
levels.
Expansions are also compared by computing changes
from reference trough levels and reference trough dates
(table 7). For the current expansion, this type of
comparison measures the extent of the rise from the
trough level (February 1961) to the level at the current month. For each earlier expansion, data for a
like period (same number of months from the trough of
the expansion) are compared with the level at the
trough. The same situation exists here as for the
comparisons shown in table 6: For earlier expansions
that were shorter than the current one, the comparisons
show the status at reference peak ;levels.
Contractions can be compared by computing changes
over the span from the most recent business cycle peak
to the current month and over equal spans from
previous reference peaks. This type of comparison is
designated as changes from reference peak levels and
reference peak dates. These comparisons will be made
during a contraction period.
In addition to comparing cyclical fluctuations on the
basis of reference dates, which are the same for all
series, similar comparisons may be made using the
specific peak and trough dates identified for each series.
(Appendix B lists specific dates for a selected group
of series.) Such comparisons would be based on
changes from specific peak levels and specific trough
dates and on changes from specific trough levels and
specific trough dates. Although these specific cycle
comparisons are not currently included in this report,
they have been shown in previous issues.
Nearly all series have undergone changes in definition, coverage, or estimation procedure since 1919;
therefore, the historical comparisons are to be considered only approximate. Furthermore, it is sometimes necessary to use data for a closely related series
for cycles prior to the period covered by the series
used currently. The principal substitutions of this
type are as follows:
7. New private nonfarm dwelling units started
(prior to 1948: Residential building contracts,
floor space, by F. W. Dodge Corp.)
41. Number of employees in nonagricultural establishments (prior to 1929: Factory employment)
52. Personal income (prior to 1929: Quarterly data
as published by Barger and Klein)
54. Sales of retail stores (prior to 1929: Department
store sales)
62. Index of labor cost per unit of output, total
manufacturing (prior to 1948: Production worker
wage cost per unit).
Two types of charts are used to highlight the cyclical
patterns of the business cycle series: Historical time
series and cyclical comparisons.
Historical Time Series
(charts 1 and 2)
These charts show cyclical fluctuations against the
background of expansions and contractions in general
business activity from 1948 to the current month.
Shaded areas on the charts indicate periods of business cycle contractions between business cycle peak
dates (beginnings of shaded areas) and business cycle
trough dates (ends of shaded areas). The shading for
a new contraction will be entered only after a trough
has been designated.
Several different ratio and arithmetic scales are used
to highlight the cyclical movements of the various series.
The scale selected for each series is identified in the
margin of the chart. Rates of change of various series
can be compared with each other only where scales are
identical. See the diagram, page 6, for additional help
in using these charts.
Cyclical Comparisons
(chart 3)
This chart compares the movements of selected series
during the current business cycle with their movements
through the corresponding phases of previous business
cycles. Actually, it is an extension of the concept behind table 6. While table 6 makes a comparison at
one point in time, chart 3 shows these comparisons
over the course of the whole business cycle. These
comparisons facilitate judgments on the vigor of the
current expansion relative to behavior during the expansions of earlier cycles.
Instead of following the usual date sequence, as in
charts 1 and 2, the data in this chart are alined according to the strategic points of the business cycle.
Each of the included series is separated into four segments which encompass the three complete business
cycles since 1948 and the current expansion. These
segments are alined so that the trough dates all fall at
the same point on the horizontal scale and so that the
levels of the preceding peaks all fall at the same point
on the vertical scale.
A similar chart, based on specific cycle dates, was
previously included in this report but has been discontinued for the present.
Peak (P) of cycle indicates end of
expansion and beginning of Recession (shaded areas) as designated
by NBER.
Trough (T) of cycle indicates end of
recession and beginning of Expansion (white areas) as designated by
NBER.
CHART 1 - Business Cycle Series
See back cover for complete titles
and sources of series.
Arabic number indicates latest
month for which data are plotted.
("12" = December)
Solid line indicates monthly data, v
(Data may be actual monthly fig- >^
ures or MCD moving averages.*)
Roman number indicates latest
quarter for which data are plotted.
("II" = second quarter)
Broken tine indicates actual
monthly data for series where an
MCD moving average * is plotted.
Dotted line indicates anticipated
data.
Parallel lines indicate a break in
continuity (data not available,
changes in series definitions,
extreme values, etc.)
30 §
Solid line with plotting points indicates quarterly data.
Various scales are used to highlight the patterns of the individual
series. "Scale A" is an arithmetic
scale, "scale L'l" is a logarithmic
scale with 1 cycle in a given distance,
"s'jale L'2" is a logarithmic scale
with 2 cycles in that distance, etc.
The scales should be carefully noted
because they show whether or not
the plotted lines for various series
are directly comparable.
CHART 2 - Diffusion Indexes
Solid line indicates monthly data
over 6- or 9-month spans.
*P
Broken line indicates monthly data
over 1-month spans.
Solid line with plotting points indicates quarterly data over various
spans.
* Many of the more irregular series are
shown in terms of their MCD moving
averages as well as their actual monthly
data. In such cases, the 4-, 5-, or 6-term
moving averages are plotted IVfc, 2, or
2l/2 months, respectively, behind the
actual data. See page 2 for a description of MCD moving averages.
Scale shows percent of components rising.
Arabic number indicates .latest
month for which data are used in
computing the indexes. ("12" =
December)
Roman number indicates latest
quarter for which data are used in
computing the indexes. ("111" =
third quarter)
Broken line with plotting points indicates quarterly data over various
intervals. This line is also used to
indicate anticipated quarterly data.
Section ONE
charts and tables
LEADING INDICATORS
Sensitive employment and unemployment
New investment commitments
New businesses and business failures
Profits and stock prices
Inventory investment, buying policy, and sensitive prices
ROUGHLY COINCIDENT
INDICATORS
Employment and unemployment
Production
Income and trade
Wholesale prices
LAGGING INDICATORS
Investment expenditures
Cost per unit of output
Inventories
Debt
Interest rates
OTHER U.S. SERIES
Federal budget and military commitments
Reserves, money supply, and financing
Interest rates
Foreign trade
INTERNATIONAL
COMPARISONS
Industrial production indexes for selected foreign countries
TABLE
BAS|C DATA
f^
MARCH 1967
CHANGES OVER 4 LATEST MONTHS
Basic data1
Series
(See complete titles and sources on
back cover)
NBER LEADING INDICATORS
1. Avg. workweek, prod, workers, mfg
2 Accession rate, manufacturing
30. Nonagri. placements, all industries 3
3. Layoff rate, manufacturing (inverted ). .
4. Temporary layoff, all industries (inv.3) • •
5. Avg. weekly initial claims, State 3
unemployment insurance (inverted ) . .
6. New orders, durable goods indus ......
24. New orders, mach. and equip, indus
9. Construction contracts, commercial
and industrial
10. Contracts and orders, plant, equip7
11. New capital appropriations, mfg
7. Private nonfarm housing starts
29. New bldg. permits, private housing
38 Index of net business formation
13. New business incorporations
14. Liabilities of business failures (inv. 3 ).
3
15 Large business failure^ (inverted
)
16 Corporate profits after taxes 7
17. Ratio, price to unit labor cost,7 mfg
18 Profits per dol of sales mfg'
22. Ratio, profits to income originating,
corporate all industries7
19. Stock prices, 500 common stocks*
21. Change in business
inventories, all
industries7 8
31. Change in book value, manufacturing
and trade inventories8
20. Change in book value, mfrs.' inven-8
tories of materials and supplies
37. Purchased materials, percent reporting
higher inventories
26. Buying policy, prod, mtls., commitments 60 days or longer *
32. Vendor performance, percent reporting
slower deliveries*
25. Change in unfilled 8orders, durable
goods industries
23. Industrial materials prices* .
NBER ROUGHLY COINCIDENT
INDICATORS
41. Employees in nonagri. establishments ..
42. Total nonagricultural employment 3
43. Unemployment rate, total (inverted ). .3 .
40. Unemployment rate, marriedmalesfinv. )
45. Avg. weekly insured
unemploy. rate,
State (inverted3)
46. Help- wanted advertising
47. Industrial production 7
50 GNP in 1958 dollars
Unitof
measure
Hours
Per 100 empl . .
Thous
Per 100 empl . .
Thous
do
Bil. dol
do
Mil. sq. ft.
floor space . .
Bil. dol
... .do
Ann. rate,
thous . ...
1957-59-100..
do
Number
Mil. dol
No. per week . .
Ann. rate,
bil dol
1957-59=100 . .
Cents
Percent
1941-43-10 . . .
Ann. rate,
bil. dol
Average percent change 2
Dec.
1966
Nov.
1966
41.3
4.9
530
1.1
78
40.9
4.5
524
1.3
88
Feb. '66 Feb. '66 1953 to
to date to date
1965
(with4 (without5 (without
sign)
sign) sign)5 6
Feb.
1967
Jan.
1967
3
r41.0
P40.3
P4.4
(NA)
534
pi. 4
p519
(NA)
-0.2
-0.7
-1.1
-3.3
0.0
(NA)
0.5
6.0
4.0
13.9
13.7
0.5
4.6
1.8
8.8
17.1
Current percent change3
Nov.
to
Dec.
1966
-1.0
-8.2
-1.1
Dec.
to
Jan.
1967
Jan.
to
Feb.
1967
-18.2
-12.8
+0.2
-2.2
+1.9
-7.7
(NA)
-1.7
(NA)
-2.8
(NA)
194
212
203
242
-1.5
8.8
5.0
-9.3
+4.2
-19.2
23.03
r23.96
r4.60
r22.36
r4.56
p22.19
P4.27
-0.5
-0.5
3.5
3.0
3.8
4.2
+4.0
-1.1
-6.7
-0.9
-0.8
60.21
r5.45
49.09
P5.41
-2.8
6.9
4.2
9.3
4.7
-6.5
-1.3
-18.5
-0.7
(NA)
(NA)
+7.4
+6.2
+0.8
+2.3
+17.4
+24.0
-14.2
-10.1
+0.8
+0.7
4.65
64.42
5.52
(NA)
(NA)
p6.32
993
rl,066
100.6
16,206
116.90
101.4
16,583
194.09
rl,251
r83.1
102.2
16,703
118.61
43
68
47
P48.2
r!03.6
103.7
T102.6
63.1
67.0
pi, 073
P74.7
43
(NA)
(NA)
111.23
-0.4
+0.4
10.1
-1.0
11.1
-2.4
-0.6
8.4
1.0
1.8
-6.4
10.4
7.2
3.7
0.8
2.5
-10.2
31.9
18.7
-66.0
+38.9
(NA)
(NA)
+6.2
-3.0
12.0
12.3
-58.1
+30.9
+8.5
+0.1
-1.1
(NA)
+0.4
+3.8-
+3.4
-0.4
(NA)
-0.3
-0.2
-2.6
0.3
0.5
2.6
5.6
0.6
6.0
p!2.6
-1.8
1.8
4.2
-0.4
3.1
2.5
+2.5
4.1
2.3
3.8
3.7
+2.9
-9.1
(NA)
+0.2
1.7
1.5
-0.4
+2.0
(NA)
-0.5
5.7
6.5
-1.8
-16.1
-8.5
2.6
5.3
-4.1
+2.9
-6.9
6.1
7.5
-10.9
-15.8
+6.2
0.48
80.99
81.33
84.45
(NA)
87.36
+16.4
do
+17.6
r+20.5
p+11.4
(NA)
do
+2.0
r+1.6
JH-3.6
(NA)
57
56
47
do
73
70
72
67
do
64
57
48
51
r-0.90
106.8
p-0.56
105.2
-0.16
+0.45
-1.14
+0.34
-1.3
1.6
1.3
-0.1
+0.9
-1.5
r65,372
70,240
3.7
1.7
p65,495
70,247
3.7
1.6
+0.3
+0.2
-0.1
0.4
0.3
2.7
3.1
0.3
0.4
3.9
5.1
+0.4
-0.2
-5.7
+0.5
+0.5
+0.2
2.4
+0.3
5.9
4.2
-14.3
1.'9
-0.5
+0.3
Percent
Bil. dol
1957-59-100 . .
Thous
do
Percent
do
do
1957-59-100 . .
do
Ann. rate,
bil. dol
do
49 GNP in current
dollars 7
7
.. do ...
57 Final sales
do
51. Bank debits, all SMSA's except N.Y. . . .
do
52 Personal income
do
53. Wages salaries in mining mfg. constr. .
54 Sal es of retail stores
Mil. dol
55. Wholesale prices, except farm products
and foods*
....
1957-59=100..
bed
-0.21
105.9
64,823
70,005
3.5
1.7
r+0 . 24
105.8
r65,076
69,882
3.7
1.7
2.1
2.4
2.4
194
158.6
193
r!59.0
189
r!58.0
43
p!90
p!55.9
657.2
759.3
742.9
3,511.9
598.5
159.7
25,610
3,561.9
601.8
160.2
r25,368
105.5
105.5
3,561.8 p3,570.2
r607.5
p609.9
161.2
pl60.2
r25,703 P 25,277
105.8
106.0
0.0
0.0
-4.0
+1.3
0.0
0.68
+0.2
0.6
3.0
1.0
+0.9
+1.7
+1.4
0.9
1.7
1.4
1.3
1.5
1.4
+0.7
+0.6
+0.5
+0.1
0.9
0.6
0.6
1.3
1.6
0.5
0.8
1.0
+0.2
0.2
0.2
0.0
+1.4
+0.6
+0.3
-0.9
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
+5.9
0.0
-2.1
-0.6
+0.5
-1.3
0.0
+0.2
+0.9
+0.6
+1.3
+0.4
-0.6
-1.7
+0.3
+0.2
bed
TABLE
BASIC DATA
MARCH 1967
CHANGES OVER 4 LATEST MONTHS—Continued
Average percent change2
Basic data1
Series
(See complete titles and sources on
back cover)
Unit of
measure
Nov.
1966
Dec.
1966
Jan.
1967
Feb.
1967
3
Feb. '66 Feb. '66 1953 to
1965
to date to date
(with4 (without5 (without
sign) sign)5 6
sign)
Current percent change3
Nov.
to
Dec.
1966
Dec.
to
Jan.
1967
Jan.
to
Feb.
1967
NBER LAGGING INDICATORS
61. Business expenditures,
new plant and
equipment7
62. Labor cost per unit of output, mfg
68. Labor 7cost per dollar of real corporate
GNP
64. Book value of mfrs.' inventories
65. Book value of mfrs.' inventories of
finished goods
66. Consumer installment debt
67. Bank rates on short-term business
loans*
Ann. rate,
bil dol
1957-59-100 . .
do
Bil. dol
do
Mil. dol
62.80
rl02.5
102.4
r!03.8
76.9
r77.9
P78.9
25.5
r26.0
73,466
P26.3
73,746
+1.9
+0.4
2.1
0.5
3.2
0.5
-0.1
+1.4
-0.3
+0.8
(NA)
+1.0
+1.2
1.0
1.2
0.8
0.5
+1.3
+1.3
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
+1.0
+0.7
1.0
0.7
0.6
0.8
+2.0
+0.4
+1.2
+0.4
(NA)
(NA)
+4.4
4.4
2.0
+0.2
9.2
4.4
3.9
4.3
-11.1
+15.7
+39.1
+4.7
-1.4
+11.6
+10.8
-22.7
-36.5
+12.4
+18.5
(NA)
+0.6
+8.2
+18.0
+23.1
+57
-11.2
-14.6
(NA)
(NA)
+8.0
ra62.60
p!04.6
p.110.1
73,145
Percent
6.31
OTHER SELECTED U.S. SERIES
Ann. rate,
bil. dol
do
do
164.2
132.1
-32.1
... .do. ..
Mil dol
p-3.6
1,723
do
do
Bil. dol
Mil. dol
Ann. rate,
percent
5,989
2,967
-2.88
+7.80
r-4.92
do
Ann. rate,
mil dol
do
Corporate gross savings 87
Change business loans
Ann. rate,
bil. dol
do
Change, consumer installment debt 8 . . .
Treasury bill rate*
Percent
do
Treasury bond yields *
do
Corporate bond yields*
do
Municipal bond yields*.
-1.44
+8.52
+6.60
82 Federal cash payments to public
83. Federal cash receipts from public
84. Federal cash surplus or deficit 8
95. Balance, 7National
income and product
account 8
90 Defense Dept oblig procurement
91 Defense Dept obligations total
92 Mil itary contract awards in U S
99. New orders, defense
products
93. Free reserves*8
85 Change in money supply 8 .
98. Change in 8money supply and time
deposits
110 Total private borrowing 7
Ill
112
113.
114
115
116
117
118 Mortgage yields *
86. Exports, excluding military aid
87 General imports
88 Merchandise trade balance
89. U.S. balance of payments:7 8
a Liquidity balance basis
b Official settlements basis
81 Consumer prices^
.
94 Construction contracts value
96. Unfilled orders, dur. goods indus
97 Backlog of capital appro mfg.^
do
Mil. dol
do
do
2.73
-222
145.9
152.9
+7.0
P152.8
p!70.6
p+17.8
p!50.6
P131.9
p-18.7
-2.0
+4.9
19.2
27.4
r6,023
3,501
r3.36
6,518
3,109
r2.87
(NA)
(NA)
+4.0
+1.9
+2.2
15.4
13.0
17.2
13.9
24.5
22.5
-165
r-0.20
+3.85
6.81
6.77
r2,486.2 r2,414.7
r2,191.5 r2,231.2
r+294.7 r+183.5
1957.59-100 . .
do
Bil. dol
do
114.6
130
76.17
2.5
(NA)
5.01
4.65
5.98
3.86
r-558
r-244
3.0
2,296
5.34
4.74
6.11
3.86
do
do
14.8
30.5
1,937
r-16
P3.10
P-5
r+9.06
+3.36
4.76
4.40
5.53
3.54
6.62
2,620.2
2,295.6
+324.6
66
p+6.36
+0.41
10.17
3.15
p+13.08
+0.81
5.99
2.56
-6.3
+1.7
16.5
10.7
-0.47
-0.28
5.10
0.90
p-0.25
(NA)
4.55
4.47
5.35
3.52
6.46
P2,601.2
P 2, 204.1
p+397.1
-0.1
-0.2
+0.5
-0.2
+0.8
+0.9
+0.9
+2.4
-5
-3
114.7
133
r76.42
p22.50
114.7
126
r75.52
98
+8
p51,192
p60,776
+0.53
+5.33
+1.0
+1.1
-1.1
114.8
(NA)
P74.96
+0.2
-1.9
+1.2
+3.5
1.7
+149
+11
+10.68 -12.72 +11.28
+9.96
-1.92
+6.48
-0.73
-1.48
+9.26
-0.49
-9.31
-5.0
4.1
1.39
0.87
3.2
1.6
2.9
3.1
6.7
1.6
1.6
2.5
-6.2
-1.9
-2.1
1.7
3.7
3.4
101.2
0.1
3.8
3.0
-0.6
-2.9
+1.8
58.4
286
794
341
492
0.2
3.7
1.6
3.5
0.2
6.6
1.4
6.6
0.0
-5.4
-7.5
-8.3
(NA)
-4.4
+1.6
-3.3
-0.6
-2.2
+8.5
+2.9
-2.4
-0.7
-4.0
-111.2 +141.1 +72.5
+0.1
+2.3
+0.3
+0.9
0.0
-5.3
-1.2
+0.1
(NA)
-0.7
r=revised; p=preliminary; e=estimated; a=anticipated; NA=Not available.
Series are 2seasonally adjusted except for those series, indicated by an asterisk (*),
that appear to contain no seasonal movement. See additional
basic data and notes in table 2.
Average percent changes are based on month-to-month (or quarter-to3
quarter) percent changes for the specified periods.
To facilitate interpretations of cyclical movements, those series that usually fall when general business activity
rises and rise when business falls are inverted so that rises are shown as declines and declines as rises (see series 3, 4,5, 14, 15, 40, 43, and 45). Percent changes are
computed in the usual way but the signs
are reversed. (See footnote 8 for other "change" qualifications.)
^Average computed with 7regard to sign.
Average com6
puted without regard to sign.
The
period varies among the series; however, for most series, the period covered is 1953-65.
Qu'arterly series; figures are placed
8
in the middle month of quarter.
Since basic data for this series are expressed in plus
or minus amounts, the changes are month-to-month (or quarter-to-jquarter)differ9
ences expressed in thesameunit of measure as the basic data, rather than in percent.
Figures are placed in the last month of quarter.
http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/
10
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
BASIC DATA
MARCH 1967
bed
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 TO PRESENT
NBER Leading Indicators
42
1. Avg. workweek, prod, wkrs., mfg. (hours)
41
40
39
2. Accession rate, mfg. (per 100 employees)
6
5
3
30.
700
600
500
Nonagri. placements, aft Indus, (thous.)
400
0
3. Layoff rate, mfg. (per 100 employeesinverted scale)
1
3
4. Temp, layoff, all indus. J(thpus.-inverted
75
scale. MCD moving avg.-5 term)
125
150
175
200
150
5. Avg. weekly initial claims, State unempl.
insur. (thous.-inverted scale)
200
250
300
350
400
*&• ••""'^•rimm
-
bed
CHART
MARCH 7967
BASIC DATA
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 TO PRESENT-CONTINUED
NBER Leading Indicators—Continued
6. New orders, dur. goods Indus, (bil
30
25
dol.)
20
J
15
24. New orders, mach. and equip, indus. (bil. dol.)
-I 3
9. Constr, contracts, com. and maW(mil. sq.ft. of
floor area. MCD moving avg.-6 term)
90
80
70
60
50
J 40
10. Contracts and orders, plant and equip, (bil. dol.)
7
cv,
6
-f1
- 5
4
10
- 6
11. New capital appropriations, mfg., Q (bil, dol.)
- 4
-1 2
7.
Private nonfarm housing starts (ann. rate, millions
MCD movtlig avg.-6 term)
1,8
1.6
14
V
H
°?
^l
1.2
- 1.0
29.
New bldg. permits, private housing units
(index: 1:957-59=100)
-J 0.8
140
120
WO 2
80
60
|
BASIC DATA
MARCH 7967
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 TO PRESENT—Continued
NBER Leading Indicators—Continued
38.
Index of net business formation (1957-59=100)
13. New bus. incorporations (thous.)
14. Liab. pf bus. failures (mil. dal, MCDmQyJnfl.oSfg.-6 term)
15. Large:bus. failures (no. per wk.inverted scale. MCD moving avg.-6 term)
bed
bed
MARCH 1967
BASIC DATA
CHART
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 TO PRESENT—Continued
NBER Leading Indicators—Continued
455°
40
16. Corporate profits after taxes, Q (ann. rate, bil. dol.)
35 „
30 t
25 §
20
15
110
17. Ratio, price to unit labor cost, mfg. (index: 1957-59=100)
105 ^
—J
100 I
95
14
12
18. Profits per dollar of sales, mfg., Q (cents)
10
22. Ratio, profits to income originating,
CO
-^
16
14
12
10
corporate, oft industries, Q (percent)
8
6
110
100
90
80
70
19. Stock pnces. 500 common stocks
(index: W41-43=10)."
60
50
2
40
§
30
20
Digitized fori#.>4
FRASER
irf^^'^]ix'^*': vV':^i.^^^t
'
-
"A IS iS
13
BASIC DATA
MARCH 1967
bed
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 TO PRESENT —Continued
NBER Leading Indicators—Continued
+20*
21. Change in bus. inventories, all Indus., Q| (ann. rate, bil. dol.)
+10
0
-10
+20
31; Change in book value, mfg. end
trade inventories (ann. rate, bil. dol.
.MCD moving qvg.-5 term) ;
+ 10
20.
Change in book value, mfrs.' inventories of
materials and supplies (ann.irate, bil. dol.
g.—6 term)
!
-10
+R
,4
/'
+4
0
V
II
" \i
V :
-4
V
37. Purchased materials, percent reporting higher inventories
-4
75
50
25
100
2l6. Buying policy, prod, mtls., percent reporting commitments 60 days or longer
75
50
32. Vendor performance, percent reporting slower deliveries
75
50
bed
MARCH
1967
BASIC DATA
CHART
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 TO PRESENT—Continued
NBER Roughly Coincident Indicators
"-]
41. Employees in nonagri. establishments (millions)
65
;
60
t
5&
70 '
42. Total nonagri. employment (millions)
'
---I'-
'—•*-"
*•
'
_„„„,*„»«.
. ...,
65 ;
60
55*
43. Unemployment rate, total (percent—inverted scale)
3 w
4
5
6
7
8
40. Unemployment rate, married males
(percent-inverted scale}
45. Avg. weekly insured unemployment rate, State
'-inverted
1
2
3
4
5
,
•
1
2
3
4
5
6
220
200
180
160
140 co
120 t
100 §
80
•n
46. Help-wanted advertising (index: 1957-59=100)
15
CHART
BASIC DATA
MARCH
1967
bed
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 TO PRESENT-CONTINUED
NBER Roughly Coincident Indicators—Continued
47. Industrial production (index: 1957-59=100)
50. 6NP in 1958 dollars, Q (ann. rate, bil. dol.)
49. GNP in current dollars. Q (ann. rate, bil. dol
- 300
J
250
bed
CHART
MARCH 1967
BASIC DATA
[BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM ms TO PRESENT —continued
NBER Roughly Coincident Indicators—Continued
3.8
3.6
3.4
3.2
3.0
2.8
2.6
51. Bank debits, all SMSA's except Hew York (ann. rate, tril. dol.)
24
650
600
S50
500
450
170
160
150
140
130
52. Personal income
ann. rate, bil. dol.)
120
53. Wages and salaries in mining, mfg., constr
ann. rate, bit. dol.)
28
26
24
22
54. Sales of retail stores (bil.
dol.)
20
18
16
J
14
120
55. Wholesale prices exc. farm prod, and foods (index: 1957-59=100)
110
100
Wholesale prices
90
80
.Jj
67
CHART
http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/
Federal Reserve18
Bank of St. Louis
BAS|c
bed
MARCH 7967
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 TO PRESENT—Continued
NBER Lagging Indicators
65. Book value of mfrs.' inventories, finished goods (bil. dol.)
20 |
15
80
70
60
50
66. Consumer installment debt (bil. dol.)
40
7
J 3
f
ill
67
co
t
1
bed
CHART
MARCH 1967
BASIC DATA
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 TO PRESENT—Continued
Other Selected U.S. Series
Federal budget and military commitments
82.
Fed. cash poyinents to public (ann. rate, bil. dol
MOD movin
83.
84.
v . — 6 term)
Fed. cash receipts from public (ann. rate, bil. dol
MOD moving avg.—6 term)
Fed. cash surplus or deficit (ann. rate, bit. dol
6—term moving avg.)
95. Surplus or deficit, National income and
., Q (ann, rate, bil, doU
90. Defense Dept oblig., procurement (bil. dot
MCD moving avg.—6 term)
9K
Defense Dept. oblig., total (bil.
MCDImoving avg.-6 term)
dol:
;
m fs:. :
19
BASIC DATA
MARCH 1967
bed
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 TO PRESENT—Continued
Other Selected U.S. Series—Continued
20
93. Free reserves (bil. dol.)
85.
-i+1
-1
+15
Change in money supply ( a n n . rate, percent,
MCD moving avg.—6 term)
+10
+5
«*
0
§
-5
98.
-10
+15
Change in money svpply and time deposits
(ann. rate, percent. MCD moving avg.—6 term) H
+5
"
0
80
60
50
110. Total private borrowing/ Q (ann. rate, bil. dot.)
3'
1
40
70
60
2
50 |
111. Corporate gross savings, Q (ann. rate, bill dol.)
40
+20
+15
112. Change in brines? loans (ann, rate, fail. dol.
MCD moving avg.—5 term)
+5
113. Change in consumer installment debt (and. rate, bil. dpi.)
-1-5
J 0
^
^^Vr:"'i7
Nfferru^
bed
MARCH 1967
BASIC DATA
CHART
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 TO PRESENTr—Continued
Other Selected U.S. Series—Continued
6-
- 5
114. Treasury bill rate (percent)
.-.._ _
4
J
3*
I
- 5
115. Treasury bond yields (j«rcent)
4-J
H
- 6
J 4,
117. Municipal bond yields (percent)
- 4
- 7
- 6
- 5
s,,r
H 4=
21
CHART
http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/
22
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
BASIC DATA
bed
MARCH 1967
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 TO PRESENT-IContinued
Other Selected U.S. Series—Continued
86. Exports, exc. military aid (bil. dot.
MCD moving avg.-4 term)
87. General imports (bi
MCD moving avg.-4 trerm)
88.
Mercftondise trade balance (bil. do
4—term moving avg.)
89. U.S. balance of payments, Q (bil. dol.)
a. Liquidity balance basis
b. Official settlements
basis /
115
110
105
100
81. Consumer prices (index: 1957-59=100)
94. Construction contracts, value (index: 1957-59=100.
MCt> moving avg.-5 term)
96. Mfrs.' unfilled orders, dur. goods Indus, (bil. dol.)
97. Backlog of cap. appropriations, mfg., Q (bit. dol.)
V'i"'i j( <it*
jf,
•*>
¥
^
-^
••§
"
bed
CHART
MARCH 1967
BASIC DATA
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 TO PRESENT-Continued
International Comparisons
I7«h
150
130
'*
150
130
IN-1
120
140
120160
125. West Germany jfindex: (957-59=100)
220
200
180.
160 i
128. Japan (index: 1?57-59=100)
18*"!
160
140
120-'
126. frlattce (index: 1957*59=WlO
180 |
160 !
140 i
120
100 I
I
80 I
,V :*^-^'4 ,R
•
23
BASIC DATA
MARCH 7967
bed
LATEST DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES
NBER Leading Indicators
Year and month
1. Average
workweek of
production
workers,
manufacturing
(Hours)
30. Nonagricul- I. Layoff rate,
tural placements, manufacturing
all industries
2. Accession
rate, manufacturing
(Per 100
employees)
4. Number of persons on temporary
layoff, all industries
(Per 100
employees)
(Thous.)
5. Average
weekly initial
claims for unemployment insurance, State
programs1
(Thous.)
(Thous.)
6. Value of man- 24. Value of manufacturers' new ufacturers' new
orders, durable
orders, machinery
goods industries and equipment
industries
(Bil. dol.)
(Bil.dol.)
1963
July
August
September
October
November
December
1964
January
February
March
/\prj|
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1965
January
February
March
April
May.
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
4.0.5
4.0.4.
4.0.6
40.7
4.0.5
40.6
40.1
40.5
40.5
40.7
4,0.6
40.7
40.7
40.9
4.0.6
40.7
4.0.9
41.2
3 9
3 8
3 9
3 9
3 7
3 9
3 8
L 0
3.9
3 c
3.8
4.1
4.0
4.0
3.9
/.O
4.0
4.1
4.1.1
41.2
4.1.3
41.0
41.2
41.0
41.0
41.1
/ 0
/ 1
4.3
4 0
/ .1
41.0
i i
L 1
/ 3
541
543
553
575
533
525
18
18
1 31
1 Q
108
1 35
7
1 3/
Q7
534
532
523
522
529
518
523
507
518
51 /,
533
5?/
18
116
1 9
125
98
122
111
121
118
91
121
92
89
109
522
549
528
l 5
1 /
535
533
5/8
5/1
18
18
"1
18
1 7
1.8
17
18
1.3
16
17
l 5
16
1.4
1 5
1 /
1 i
16
537
"l r
4. 5
529
L
I./
1 "3
41.2
41.4,
41.3
*>
5/7
4.9
4.8
544
41.4
41.5
41.5
41.5
41.5
41.3
41.0
41.4
g> 41.5
41.3
41.3
40.9
4.9
4.9
5.2
4.8
5.1
fi>
5.3
V>^ 4.0
, ,
5.1
5.0
5.1
4.9
4.5
570
§£> 600
589
522
513
567
542
543
509
533
530
524
C^. 0
9OJ5
1 30
28]
290
P£5
282
276
301
18 28
18 06
284
270
277
265
262
257
260
244
245
249
262
251
rtT
81
P/3
115
~\ on
248
237
i
11n0n
i pip
1US
237
oo/
224
117
111
112
in/
224
O "21
•ol
92
209
010
248
01 &
1£
o/
3
33
3
31
3 .L±<L
/9
J
18 62
18 11
3 1 1
1 7 Q7
3
1 Q 7/
1 9 50
19 26
3 h9
3
/A
20
19
20
21
19
46
94
02
25
34
3
3
3
3
Al
93
Q?
77
19
19
19
20
91
62
45
72
21 27
?1 1 3
21 71
22.04
20.99
21.31
22.20
21.51
22 . 16
22.42
22.39
23.40
3 P7
6l
3 / 1
3 77
3 69
3 79
3 88
3 92
3 9^
3 80
4 02
4.08
4.07
4.09
4.35
4.16
4.15
4.25
4.32
4.58
13
1 /
122
-i -i rj
lie
1.2
1.2
1.2
1.2
1.1
113
104
96
100
£>> 76
115
109
102
92
89
78
88
222
219
182
E> 179
185
186
230
196
183
186
194
212
23.58
23.74
24.89
24.20
24.28
24.59
24.37
23.51
E> 25.27
24.24
r23.96
4.45
4.58
4.59
4.79
4.84
4.75
§£> 5.09
4.81
4.91
4.82
4.65
r4.60
(NA)
203242
r22.36
P22.19
r4.56
P4.27
-1 ^ Q
206
1966
January
February
March
April
May.
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1.3
1.7
1.0
1.1
E> i.o
1.1
1
.3
23. 03
1967
January
February
March
April
May.
June
r41.0
P40.3
p4.4
(NA)
534
P519
pl.4
(NA)
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by an asterisk (*), Current high
values are indicated by§C>; for series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3, 4,5, 14,15, 40, 43, and 45), current low values are indicated
by§C^ Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
•"•Data exclude Puerto Rico which is included in figures published by source agency.
bed
BASIC DATA
MARCH 7967
TABLE
LATEST DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES—Continued
NBER Leading Indicators—Continued
Year and month
1963
9. Construction
contracts, commercial and industrial
buildings
10. Contracts
and orders for
plant and
equipment
(Mil. sq.ft.
floor snacel
(Bil. dol.)
45.78
44.93
43.88
50.81
A3. 73
45.43
3.94
3.91
4.08
4.17
4.32
4.56
50.88
49.10
48.65
49.12
46.86
49.99
53.40
49.28
51.21
53.46
52.57
57.91
4.38
4.14
4.11
4.36
4.63
4.64
4.52
4.53
4.51
4.56
4.92
4.94
52.94
54.89
54 41
57.74
57.52
57.72
56.68
52.00
62.97
60.55
61.74
64.13
4.72
4.67
4.84
4.98
5.02
4.81
5.16
4.90
5.15
5.13
5.05
5.35
62.29
E> 70.42
67.99
68.28
64.00
65.85
63.54
63.52
64.40
54.76
64.42
60.21
5.46
5.71
5.66
5.91
5.77
5.57
6.10
5.87
|£>6.28
5.76
5.52
r5.45
49.09
(NA)
p5.41
July
August
September
October
November
December
1964
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1965
January
March
April
May
June
Julv
August
September
October
November
December
1966
January
February
March
April
May
, J
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1967
January
February
March
April
May
June
(NA)
11. Newly approved 1. New private
capital appropria- nonfarm housing
tions, 1,000 manu- units started
facturing
corporations 1
(Bil. dol.)
3.72
4.10
4.39
4.81
5.00
4.52
5.00
5.79
5.85
6.32
6.36
|H>
P-—^ 7.ii
6.08
p6.32
(Ann. rate,
thous.)
29. Index of new
private housing
units authorized
by local building
permits
38. Index of net
business formation
13. Number of
new business
incorporations
14. Current
liabilities of
business failures
(1957-59400)
(1957-59=100)
(Number)
(Mil. dol.)
116.5
113.5
100.7
101.7
101.4
101.7
101.4
101.8
15,431
16,093
15,689
16,275
15,759
15,867
144.50
6> 52.86
94.52
99.92
255.72
87.17
116.8
121.7
113.6
112.9
115.1
111.5
113.4
109.7
109.1
110.8
105.4
102.4
103.1
103.1
104.2
105.4
103.6
103.5
103.9
106.4
107.0
105.4
106.1
15,993
16,326
15,917
16,132
16,473
16,282
16,550
15,692
16,948
16,728
16,804
17,021
91.69
119.29
110.67
107.10
97.92
136.19
125.14
90.99
118.59,
97.98
111.00
126.49
1,417
1,468
1,465
1,532
1,501
1,539
1,447
1,409
1,436
1,380
1,531
1,735
112.3
108.2
109.9
106.2
109.7
109.9
108.9
108.4
104.1
109.8
112.9
114.0
106.5
106.6
106.1
104.7
105.4
106.2
106.5
105.7
106.1
105.5
106.1
106.9
16,784
16,854
17,131
16,664
16,580
17,017
16,844
16,901
17,136
16,994
17,606
17,625
84.54
107.57
146 . 29
79.51
139.09
135.66
120.64
128.98
108.56
85.67
66.65
128.06
1,585
1,349
1,538
1,481
1,287
1,261
1,068
1,084
1,050
826
993
rl,066
110.7
105.6
111.9
104.6
96.9
84.2
81.3
74.5
64.7
63 0
63 1
67.0
109.1
109.6
g>109.6
107.6
106.8
106.2
104.8
103.9
102.7
103 3
100 6
101 4
0> 18,087
17,451
17,266
17,057
16,644
16,577
16,074
16,343
15,764
16,233
16,206
16,583
111.67
94.59
98.73
106.93
92.41
111.23
62.84
159.29
128 77
128 02
116 90
194 09
rl 251
pi 073
r83 1
P74.7
102.2
(NA)
16,703
(NA)
118.61
111.23
1,574
1,522
1,676
1,706
1,592
1,522
101,753
1,706
1,571
1,506
1,496
1,593
1,475
1,489
1,422
1,495
1,480
1,575
121.0
123.6
119.9
123.7
|rT>124.6
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by an asterisk (*). Current high
values are indicated byjj£>;for series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3, 4, 5, 14, 15, 40, 43, and 45), current low values are indicated
by|j£> Series numbers are for identification only and dp not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
data from 196l o"n have been adjusted to reflect a change in the seasonal adjustment of appropriations for the petroleum
and coal products industry and a change in the reporting basis of nonelectrical machinery. These revisions do not materially
affect
comparability with the data before 1961. (See NICE publication, Investment Statistics— Capital Appropriations: First
Digitized for Quarter
FRASER1965.)
TABLE
BASIC DATA
MARCH 1967
bed
LATEST DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES—Continued
NBER Leading Indicators—Continued
Year and month
16. Corporate
15. Number of
profits after taxes
business failures
with liabilities
$100,000 and over1
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Number per
week)
17. Ratio, price to
unit labor cost
index, manufacturing
18. Profits (before
taxes) per dollar of
sales, all manufacturing corporations
22. Ratio of profits
to income originating, corporate,
all industries
(1957-59=100)
(Cents)
(Percent)
19. Index of stock 21. Change in
prices, 500 common business inventories
after valuation adstocks*
justment, all industries
(1941-43=10)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
1963
July
39
August
September
October
November
December
1+2
LI
1*2
38
38
33.5
34.9
102.0
101.6
101.1
101.0 .
100.4
100.7
8 6
11.3
8 9
11.7
69.07
70.98
72.85
73.03
72.62
74.17
+6.0
+8.1
1964
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
41
4-1
38
ii
39
39
38,5
//
40
/p
42
42
39.1
39.0
/n
1965
January
February
March
April
May.
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
35
40
42
33
47
47
39
45
43
35
40
48
1966
January
February
March
April
May.
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
38
37
37
37
38
39
42
48
46
48
43
68
1967
January
February
March
April
May
June
38 o
47
43
43.8
43.8
44.1
46.3
48.7
|£>*48.7
48.2
p48.2
101.8
101.5
101.1
101 . K
101.8
101.4
101.9
101.4
100.4
100.0
101.6
102.2
102.9
102.9
103.1
103.5
103.5
104.4
104.8
104.7
103.9
103.8
103.8
104.8
104.8
105.0
105.2
104.8
105.2
105.3
B> 105.9
105.3
104.7
104.6
r!03.6
103.7
8.9
76.45
77.39
78.80
79.94
80.72
80.24
83.22
82.00
83.41
84.85
85.44
83.96
12 2
• ••
8 9
12 2
Q 0
1P P
...
...
8.8
1? 1
9.5
ion
86.12
86.75
86. S3
87.97
89.28
85.04
84.91
86.49
89.38
91.39
92.15
91.73
...
9 3
~\ o Q
9 4
12 Q
9 5
11 1
g>9.7
R> 13.3
9.3
13.1
9.2
12.8
(NA)
p!2.6
E> 93.32
92.69
88.88
91.60
86.78
86.06
85.84
80.65
77.81
77.13
80.99
81.33
r!02.6
(NA)
2
C
-LQ
...
H
P
4-1 A
...
+7 /
+Q 5
...
+7 6
+8 7
+10 4
+8.9
+12.3
+9.9
§£>• +16.4
84.45
87.36
90.18
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by an asterisk (*), Current high
values are indicated byg>; for series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3, 4, 5,14,15, 40, 43, and 45), current low values are indicated
by|[£>. Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. The "r" indicates revised; "D", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
•"•High value (32) was reached in February 1962.
3
Average for. March, Ib, 17, and 20.
bed
BASIC DATA
MARCH 1967
TABLE
LATEST DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES—Continued
NBER Leading Indicators—Continued
Year and month
1963
31. Change in
book value of manufacturing and
trade inventories,
total
August
September
October
November
December
1964
January
February
March
April
May
June
Julv
August
September
October
November
December
1965
January
_L£
Q
+2
2
+ *> L
+7 1
+10 1
+7 1
i /
9
i 0
C
, 0 - 7
.7 o
i /
C
+4. j
i O Q
4-i n
i O C
+ J» J
4-i n 9
4_ n ^
, Q
C>
• n/
o
o-i o A
. 0
March
April
May
June
JulyAugust
September
October
November
December
1966
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
rt
+3.o
,-\
I
Q
+14. v
+8 8
,£
/
4-7
&
,-t1i1. c0
+
4-1 0 9
4-9
?
4-A
?
4-1 D 9
4-1 Q /
+17.4
+8.1
+11.7
+13.1
+12.8
+17.7
+16.9
+13.6
+15.9
+9.6
SO
1967
January. .........
February
March
April
May
June
(Percent
reporting)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
July
20. Change in
37. Purchased
book value of man- materials, percent
ufacturers' inven- reporting higher
tories of materials inventories
and supplies1
-0.5
+1.7
-0.4
+1.7
-0.2
-0.7
49
-1.9
-0.5
42
50
0.0
-1.0
-0.1
-0.7
-1.6
+1.3
+2.6
+4.3
+3.5
+2.0
+1.0
+0.4
+2.5
+5.3
+1.5
-0.5
+0.7
+1.4
+3.1
+0.9
+1.0
+2.0
+0.9
+1.2
+0.8
+3.8
+3.4
+4.0
+1.1
+5.4
+3.3
+1.4
+2.0
+18.6
+17.6
r+20.5
r+1.6
P+-11.4
p+3.6
(NA)
(NA)
55
50'
46
43
43
55
53
so
54
55
^L
59
59
RJ^> 63
^60
61
A9
C7
61
59
56
5/
58
57
47
49
/Q
49
47
52
51
53
54
58
58
54
58
57
56
47
43
26. Production
materials, percent
reporting commitments 60 days or
longer*
32. Vendor performance, percent
reporting slower
deliveries*
(Percent
reporting)
(Percent
reporting)
25. Change in unfilled orders,
durable goods
industries
(Bil. dol.)
23. Index of industrial materials
prices*
(1957-59=100)
54
55
56
53
54
55
42
48
52
48
48
46
-U.54
-0.05
+0.38
+0.10
0 09
53
54
56
59
58
59
58
58
61
60
64
65
55
54
60
60
63
55
59
65
74
72
70
66
+0.40
+0.57
+0.16
+1.04
+0.38
+0.81
+1.26
+0.06
+0.77
+1.00
+0.27
+0.55
102.4
100.9
101.4
102.5
105.7
108.2
112.0
113.2
112.5
' 65
65
68
67
65
62
62
63
61
63
63
63
68
72
66
72
70
66
62
64
62
60
66
72
+0.32
+0.81
+0.44
+0.84
+0.50
+0.58
+0.38
+0.32
+1.24
+1.28
+0.78
+1.09
110.6
110.7
113.2
116.7
116.9
115.3
114.6
115.2
114.8
115.0
115.5
117.1
68
67
68
69
70
72
73
73
72
B> 75
73
70
72
67
74
85
g>86
82
75
69
70
73
72
70
64
57
48
51
94 2
94 2
94.1
96.3
97 3
97 7
o 40
+1.27
+1.31
+1.65
+1.49
+1.36
+1.70
+1.34
+0.64
g> +2.30
+0.79
-0.21
r+0 . 24
98.5
98.5
98.9
120.5
122.9
B> 123.5
121.5
118.3
118.4
118.8
111.7
108.9
106.3
105.9
105.8
r-0.90
p-0.56
106. b
2
105.2
102.3
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except these that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by an asterisk (*). Current high
. values are indicated by|j>; for series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3, 4, 5,14,15, 40, 43, and 45), current low values are indicated
by§£>. Series numbersaTe for identification only and dp not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. The V indicates revised; V, preliminary; V, estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
1
High value (+6.6) was reached in December 1961.
Average for March 16, 17, and 20.
2
BASIC DATA
MARCH 7967
bed
LATEST DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES—Continued
NBER Roughly Coincident Indicators
Year and month
41. Number of employees, in nonagricultural establishments
(Thous.)
43. Unemployment
42. Total nonagricultural employ- rate, total
ment, labor force
survey
(Thous.)
40. Unemployment
rate, married
males
(1957-59=100)
(Percent)
(Percent)
(Percent)
46. Index of help45. Average
wanted advertising
weekly insured
in newspapers
unemployment rate,
1
State programs
47. Index of industrial production
(]957-59blOO)
1963
July
August
September
October
November
December
56,761
56,836
56,983
57,168
57,157
57,303
63,182
63,281
63,548
63,558
63,613
63,601
5.6
5.4
5.5
5.5
5.7
5.5
3.2
3.1
3.0
3.0
3.3
3.3
4.2
4.2
4.1
4.1
4.1
4.1
109
105
107
111
112
118
125.6
125.4
125.7
126.1
126.1
127.0
57,336
57,676
57,800
57,942
58,061
58,211
58,369
58,521
58,74-7
58,6^9
59,118
59,387
63,789
64,249
64,373
64,854
64,920
64,647
64,784
64,866
65,008
64,986
65,261
65,557
5.5
5.4
5.4
5.3
5.1
5.3
5.0
5.0
5.1
5.1
4.8
4.9
3.1
2.9
2.9
2.9
2.6
2.8
2.7
2.6
2.8
2.9
2.4
2.6
4.0
3.9
3.9
3.8
3.8
3.7
3.6
3.5
3.4
3.4
3.4
3.4
116
117
118
120
118
121
124
123
126
127
134
137
128.1
128.7
129.3
131.1
132.0
132.3
133.5
134.2
133.8
131.7
135.5
137.9
59,489
59,777
60,072
60,152
60,363
60,623
60,841
61,021
61,180
61,437
61,864
62,241
65,841
65,863
66,150
66,109
66,169
66,582
67,061
66,961
67,017
67,197
67,681
67,950
4.8
5.0
4.7
4.8
4.6
4.6
4.5
4.4
4.4
4.3
4.1
4.0
2.7
2.6
2.5
2.5
2.5
2.4
2.3
2.5
2.2
2.1
2.0
1.9
3.3
3.3
3.2
3.1
3.0
2.9
3.0
3.0
2.9
2.7
2.6
2.6
137
145
148
143
145
146
145
152
160
168
181
186
138.8
139.6
140.9
141.0
141.8
143.1
144.3
144.9
144.1
145.5
146.7
149.0
62,469
62,811
63,247
63,350
63,517
63,983
64,072
64,199
64,168
64.466
64,823
r65,076
68,266
68,186
68,153
68,343
68,351
68,749
68,920
69,206
69,309
69,420
70,005
69,882
3.9
3.7
3.8
3.7
3.9
3.9
3.9
3.8
3.7
3.8
K>3.5
3.7
1.9
1.9
1.9
1.8
1.8
1.9
2.0
2.0
1.9
1.9
1.7
1.7
184
191
185
184
186
189
189
193
194
193
150.6
152.4
153.7
153.9
155.3
156.5
157.2
158.0
157.7
158.9
158.6
g>r!59.0
r65,372
(ȣ> p65,495
70,240
Br^ 70,247
3.7
3.7
189
r!58.0
p!90
P155.9
1964
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October.
November
December
1965
January
February
March . . . . r
April
May.
June. ......... .
July
August
September
October
November
December
1966
January
February
March
April
May.
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1967
January
February
March
April
May.
June
1.7
> i-6
li£>
y^
2.6
2.6
2.3
2.1
2.1
2.1
2.4
2.4
2.1
R>- 2.0
^ 2.1
2.4
2.4
2.4
H£>201
' " 1 89
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by an asterisk (*), Current high
values are indicated bygO for series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3, 4, 5, 14, 15,, 40, 43, and 45), current low values are indicated
sources are shown on the back cover. The "r" indibyf£> Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sour
cates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
•'•Data exclude Puerto Rico which is included in figures published by source agency.
http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/
Federal Reserve28
Bank of St. Louis
bed
BASIC DATA
MARCH 1967
TABLE
LATEST DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES—Continued
NBER Roughly Coincident Indicators—Continued
Year and month
50. Gross
national product
in 1958 dollars
49. Gross
national product
in current
dollars
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
57. Final sales 51. Bank debits, 52. Personal
(series 49 minus allSMSA's exincome
series 21)
cept New York1
(224 SMSA's)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
1963
July
August
September
October
November
December
1964
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1965
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1966
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
594.7
588.8
...
605.8
597.7
569.7
616.8
613.3
578.1
627.7
623.5
585.0
637.9
634.4
587.2
644.2
636.8
600.3
660.8
651.4
554.7
• ••
• ••
562.1
• ••
607.8
672.9
665.3
618.2
686.5
677.8
631.2
704.4
694.0
64.0 5
72"! 2
712 3
6^3.5
732.3
720.0
649.9
745.3
735.4
|jT>. 657.2
GT^>
759.3
|D^>
742 . 9
1967
January
February
March
April
May
June
53. Wages and
salaries in
mining, manufacturing, and
construction
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
54. Sales of
retail stores
(Mil. dol.)
55. Index of
wholesale prices
[except farm
, products and
'foods*
(1957-59400)
2,5bl.O
2,463.1
2,559.0
2,605.5
2,527.4
2,610.2
465. b
467.8
470.0
473.4
474-9
479.1
123.5
123.5
124.6
125.3
125.7
126.8
20,634
20,581
20,489
20,774
20,727
20,952
100.8
100.8
100.7
100.9
100.9
101.2
2,571.5
2,590.3
2,597.3
2,693.8
2,688.4
2,607.4
2,746.7
2,681.7
2,755.9
2,771.5
2,730.3
2,803.5
482.3
483.8
486.1
489.3
492.6
494.1
497.3
500.8
502.7
503.5
506.8
512.3
126.2
127.8
128.7
129.8
130.0
130.8
131.7
133.0
134.0
132.7
134.7
136.9
21,023
21,408
21,305
21,442
21,701
21,797
21,862
22,227
22,333
21,429
21,690
22,766
101.3
101.2
101.1
101.1
101.1
100.9
101.1
101.1
101.1
101.5
101.6
101.8
2,803.3
2,845.1
2,923.8
2,962.0
2,871.5
3,019.4
3,021.0
3,018.8
3,022.6
3,068.9
3,178.9
3,249.6
516.7
517 1
522.5
528.0
532.2
535.4
537.8
552.5
547.2
553.2
558.2
137.0
138.5
139.3
138.5
140.0
141.0
141.3
142.4
142.7
144-2
146.5
147.8
22,936
23,076
22,856
22,849
23,317
23,322
23,668
23,585
23,753
24,330
24,647
r 24, 704
101.9
101.9
102.0
102.1
102.3
102.5
102.5
102.7
102.7
102.8
103.2
103.2
3,258.4
3,297.4
3,372.9
3,356.5
3,395.7
3,414.2
3,474.2
3,495.4
3,546.1
3,513.6
3,511.9
3,561.9
560.2
564.7
569.0
570.5
573.0
577.2
580.0
585.4
590.0
594.4
598.5
601.8
149.3
151.1
152.6
153.2
154.0
155.3
155.4
157.1
158.0
158.9
159.7
160.2
r25,08l
25,049
25,536
24,949
24,475
25,394
25,362
25,572
25,703
25,550
25,610
r25,368
103.5
103.8
104.0
104.3
104.7
104.9
105.2
105.2
105.2
105.3
105.5
105.5
3,561.8
g>p3,570.2
r607.5
BT>P609.9
m^-^ *•
E£> 161.2
0>r25,703
p25,277
105.8
§£> 106.0
Z0(~) 1
P160.2
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by an asterisk (*). Current high
values f are indicated by|JI>; for series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3, 4, 5,14, 15, 40, 43, and 45), current low values are indicated
by j>. Series numbers are for identification only and dp not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. The V indicates revised; "p"> preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
1
Includes 232 SMSA's beginning with January 1966.
TABLE
BASIC DATA
MARCH 1967
bed
LATEST DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES—Continued
NBER Lagging Indicators
Year and month
61. Business expenditures on new
plant and equipment, total
62. Index of labor
cost per unit of
output, manufacturing
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(1957-59=100)
68. Index of labor 64. Book value of
cost per dollar of manufacturers'
real corporate GNP inventories
(1957-59=100)
(Bil. dol.)
65. Book value of
manufacturers'
inventories of finished goods
67. Bank rates on
short-term business
loans, 19 cities*
66. Consiper installment debt
(Percent)
(Mil. dol.)
(Bil. dol.)
1963
July
August
September
October
November
December
1964
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October.
November
December
1965
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1966
January
February
March
April
May.
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1967
January
February
March
April
May
June
40.00.
• ••
99.0
99.2
99.6
99.9
103.7
...
...
41.20
• ••
100.5
100.2
104.1
.. .
42.55
99.5
99.6
99.8
103.8
.. .
99.4
99.0
104.2
43.50
• ••
• ••
45.65
• ••
47.75
• ••
49.00
.
50.35
52.75
55.35
99.4
99.2
99.6
...
104.5
100.8
101.4
99.8
105.6
99.3
98.9
98.9
98.7
98.6
98.9
98.7
98.4
98.6
99.3
99.6
99.9
99.3
104.5
...
...
105.3
...
105.3
...
•..
105.4
...
58.9
58.9
59.1
59.3
59.8
60.1
20.3
20.4
20.6
20.6
21.0
21.2
5U,655
51,207
51,631
52,194
52,648
53,202
60.0
60.1
60.3
60.5
60.5
60.4
60.5
60.8
61.0
61.8
21.2
21.4
21.6
21.6
21.6
21.8
62.4
62.9
21.9
22.2
53,689
54,259
54,865
55,333
55,907
56,375
56,911
57,410
58,004
58,475
58,836
59,454
63.2
22.4
22.4
22.5
22.3
22.4
22.3
22.5
22.5
22.6
22.7
22.9
23.1
60,069
60,666
61,308
62,053
62,709
63,304
64,028
64,684
65,370
65,990
66,689
67,323
23.5
67,920
68 458
69,107
69,638
70,131
70,680
71,244
71 , 846
72,321
72,701
73,145
73 , 466
63.4
63.7
64.0
64.3
64.6
65.4
65.8
66.3
66.6
67.2
68.0
21.4
21.6
21.6
21.5
...
5.01
...
5.00
...
4.99
...
• ••
4.99
••.
• ••
4.98
•.•
5.00
4.97
...
...
4.99
...
5.00
5.27
58.00
60.10
61.25
E>62.80
ra62.60
99.6
99.9
99.8
100.3
100.3
100.3
100.1
101.0
101.6
101.6
r!02 5
102.4
r!03.8
(T>.pl04.6
106.8
108.4
109.6
§£> piio i
68.6
69.0
69.6
70.3
71.1
71.9
73.0
74.1
74.9
75.8
76 9
r77.9
^w
Ifi^>p78.9
23 6
23.8
23.8
24.1
24 1
24.5
24 7
24.9
25.1
25 5
r26 0
fi^>-p26
3
5.55
5 82
6 30
|T>> 6.31
|£> 73,746
(NA)
ra62.25
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by an asterisk (*), Current tTigrr
values are indicated by(£>; for series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3, 4, 5, 14,15, 40, 43, and 45), current low values are indicated
byf£>. Series numbers are for identification
only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; 4<e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/
Federal Reserve 30
Bank of St. Louis
bed
BASIC DATA
MARCH 1967
TABLE
LATEST DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES—Continued
Other Selected U.S. Series
Year and month
82. Federal cash
payments to the
public
(Ann. rate,
bil. doU
1963
83. Federal cash
receipts from the
public
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
84. Federal cash
surplus (+) or
deficit (-)•
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
August
September
October
November
December
120.2
121.6
119.7
122.1
119.3
117.2
113.7
117.3
113.4
115.3
115.4
118.7
-6.5
-4.3
-6.3
-6.8
-3.9
+1.5
1964
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
126.5
119.7
121.0
122.4118.9
116.5
122.2
121.0
117.3
118.4
112.9
126.6
115.1
119.6
116.3
121.1
108.4
113.5
114.7
112.4
113.7
115.7
115.4
115.1
-11.4
-0.1
-4.7
-1.3
-10.5
-3.0
-7.5
-8.6
-3.6
-2.7
+2.5
-11.5
1965
January
February
March • • •
April
May
June
Julv
August
September
October
November
December
122.0
122.2
117.8
125.6
129.3
133.9
119.5
128.8
136.9
124.3
146.3
126.6
110.9
117.6
128.2
144.4
118.1
129.3
116.1
125.0
126.6
113.6
129.6
125.0
-11.1
-4.6
+10.4
+18.8
-11.2
-4.6
-3.4
-3.8
-10.3
-10.7
-16.7
-1.6
146.9
142.5
153.5
139 . 4
153 9
138.5
164.3
154.2
162.0
143.8
164.2
145.9
124.3
137.1
142.8
155.2
137.7
182.9
154.8
127.7
153.5
156.6
132.1
152.9
-22.6
-5.4
-10.7
+15.8
-16.2
+44.4
-9.5
-26.5
-8.5
+12.8
-32.1
+7.0
p!70.6
p!31.9
pf!7.8
p-18.7
July
1966
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1967
January
! •
1
p!52.8
p!50.6
95. Surplus (+)
or deficit (-),
National income
and product
account
(Ann. rate ,
bil. dol.)
91. Defense
90. Defense
Department obliga- Department obligations, procurement tions, total
(Mil. dol.)
+1.2
...
...
+2.1
.. .
-1.9
...
-6.7
...
...
-3.0
...
...
-0.5
+4-5
...
+4.4
...
-2.5
...
...
-0.2
.. .
+2.3
+3.8
-0.5
P-3.6
(Mil. dol.)
92. Military prime
contract awards to
U.S. business firms
(Mil. dol.)
2,419
1,132
1,700
1,207
2,010
1,094
1,273
4,349
4,580
4,160
5,112
4,093
4,371
2,733
2,578
2,086
1,681
2,079
1,075
1,843
1,237
1,389
1,910
1,079
1,494
803
1,141
889
-1,089
1,747
4,351
5,317
4,133
4,544
4,818
4,349
4,677
4,237
4,405
3,773
4,228
5,325
2,149
2,689
1,598
2,508
2,454
1,879
2,904
1,926
2,191
1,745
2,008
1,883
1,005
700
1,355
1,444
1,402
1,254
1,128
1,741
1,732
1,733
1,212
1,882
4,278
3,839
4,624
4,593
4,630
4,520
4,258
5,223
5,276
4,962
4,896
5,669
1,830
1,628
1,874
2,926
2,025
2,438
2,699
2,770
2,465
2,566
2,679
2,938
1,639
1,736
1,904
2,109
1,620
2,415
1,753
2,251
1,866
1,931
1,723
1,937
5,100
5,179
5,879
6,444
5,447
7,084
4,998
7,215
6,579
6,059
5,989
r6,023
2,296
(NA)
6,518'
(NA) 1
2,755
2,830
2,640
3,183
2,968
3,545
3,912
2,978
3,379
3,303
2,967
3,501
3,109
(NA)
March
April
May
June
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by an asterisk (*). Series numbers
are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
31
TABLE
BASIC DATA
bed
MARCH 1967
LATEST DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES—Continued
Other Selected U.S. Series—Continued
99. New orders,
defense products
Year and month
(Bil. dol.)
93. Free reserves* 85. Change in
total U.S. money
supply
(Mil. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
percent)
98. Change in
money supply and
time deposits
(Ann. rate,
percent)
110. Total private
borrowing
(Ann. rate,
mil. dol.)
111. Corporate
gross savings
112. Change in
business loans
(Ann. rate,
mil. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
1963
July
August
September
October
November
December
1964
January
February
March
April
May
; 3'
June
July
August
September ........
October
November
December
1965
January
February
March
April
May.
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1966
January
February
March
April
May.
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1967
January
February
March
April
May
June
2.4.0
+161
2.36
2.47
1.92
1.97
1.48
+133
+91
+94+33
+209
+4.80
+1.56
+2.40
+6.36
+7.08
-0.84
+6.96
+6.96
+9.24
+11.04
+4-56
51,980
...
...
54,508
...
44,964
2.67
2.40
2.18
2.37
2.48
2.34
3.29
1.86
1.98
2.41
1.79
1.87
+175
+89
+99
+167
+82
+120
+135
+83
+89
+106
-34
+168
+3.96
+3.12
+0.72
+3.12
+3.84
+4-68
+7.68
+4-56
+7.68
+4-56
+1.56
+5-28
+7.68
+6.24
+4.08
+5-76
+7.56
+8.40
+9.24
+7.80
+9.48
+8.52
+7.68
+9.24
48,136
...
...
61,680
...
...
56,048
...
...
56,436
...
49,496
.. .
...
50,516
.. .
2.37
2.44
2.^6
3.242.4-6
2.58
2.62
2.81
3.45
3.28
2.57
2.53
+106
+36
-75
-105
-180
-182
-174
-134
-144
-146
-83
-2
0.00
+0.72
+3.72
+5-28
-2.28
+7.44
+5.16
+4-44
+8.04
+8.04
+2.88
+11.64
+8.76
+8.76
+7.44
+8.16
+4.08
+10.56
+9.72
+10.80
+10.68
+12.60
+8.52
+11.52
62,100
...
...
69,232
...
...
64,688
...
.. .
67,836
54,984
...
.. .
54,496
.. .
...
55,524
...
...
56,352
3.40
3.04
3.38
3.30
2.91
3.68
3.50
3.16
4.67
3.31
2.73
r3.36
-44
-107
-246
-268
-352
-352
-358
-390
-368
-431
-222
-165
+5.76
+1.44
+7.80
+11.28
-4.92
+6.36
-10.56
0.00
+6.36
-6.36
-2.88
+7.80
+6.48
+3.36
+7.92
+13.20
+3.36
+10.08
+0.36
+4.80
+5.16
-4.44
-1.44
+8.52
64,796
57,744
74,708
57,792
57,776
...
...
57,916
p51,192
p60,776
r2.87
p3.10
r-16
P-5
r-4.92
p+6.36
+6.60
p+13.08
+8.52
4-1:97
+2.04
+2.08
+4.66
+5.22
+5.78
.. .
45,128
+1.79
+3.48
+1.42
+3.17
+4.25
+3.89
+4.31
+4.78
+4.28
+1.43
+0.32
+8.62
51,996
...
.; .
51,312
...
+10.00
+12.18
+9.86
+7.88
+9.42
+10.22
+9.36
+6.06
+6.30
+7.66
+4.93
+5.65
+14.27
+5.39
+8.87
+8.46
+9.05
+17.70
X
(NA)
+4.90
-0.19
+5.58
+0.53
r-0.20
r+9.06
p-0.25
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by an asterisk (*). Series numbers
are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
1
Because of a change in coverage, data beginning with July 1966 are not comparable with data for the earlier period.
http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/
32
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
bed
MARCH
BASIC DATA
7967
TABLE
LATEST DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES—Continued
Other Selected U.S. Series—Continued
Year and month
1963
113. Net change in 114. Treasury bill
consumer install- rate*
ment debt
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
July
August
September
October
November
December
1964
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1965
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1966
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1967
January
February
March
April
May
(Percent)
(Percent)
86. Exports excluding military aid
shipments, total
115. Treasury bond 116. Corporate bond 117. Municipal bond 118. Mortgage
yields*
yields*
yields*
yields*
(Percent)
/ ?/
(Percent)
(Mil. dol.) t
(Percent)
+6 91
+6.62
+5.09
+6.76
+5.45
+6.65
3 ]L
3.32
3.38
3.45
3.52
3.52
4 01
3 99
4.04
4.07
4.11
4.14
+5.84
+6.84
+7.27
+5.62
+6.89
+5.62
+6.43
+5.99
+7.13
+5o65
+4.33
+7.42
3.53
3. 53
3.55
3.48
3.48
3.48
3.48
3.51
3.53
3.58
3.62
3.86
4.15
4.14
4.18
4.20
4.16
4.13
4.13
4.14
4.16
4.16
4.12
4.14
+7.38
+7 16
+7 70
+8.94
+7.87
+7.14
+8.69
+7.87
+8.23
+7.44
+8.39
+7.61
3.83
4.14
4 16
3.93
3.90
3.81
3.83
3.84
3.91
4.03
4.08
4.36
4.15
4.14
4.14
4.15
4.19
4.25
4.28
4.34
4.43
4.48
4.52
4.57
4.57
4.66
4.71
4.70
4.75
+7.16
+6.46
+7.79
+6.37
+5.92
+6.59
+6.77
+7.22
+5.70
+4.56
+5.33
+3.85
4.60
4.67
4.63
4.61
4.64
4.54
4.86
4.93
5.36
5.39
5.34
5.01
5.70
(NA)
6.00
+3.36
(NA)
4.76
. 4.55
3 Q^
1 Q/
4 34
4 40
4 37
4.42
4 49
? 2?
3 1?
3 20
3.20
3.30
3.27
C.
1 K
5 /*>
Revised*
1 841 1
1 Q?? 1
5 45
5.45
5 45
1 958 1
1 967 7
1,965 3
2 093 2
2 039.6
2 057 8
2 075.2
2 061.0
2 OA7.3
2 076.5
2 118.6
2,099.8
2,261.0
2,156.4
2,206.2
2 426.1
1 227 5
1 622 7
? 7"3# Q
2,406.3
2,299.3
2,234.7
2,299.5
2,328.9
2,291.3
2 , 349 . 3
2,378.1
2,362.2
5 /5
4.50
4 39
4 45
4 48
4 48
4. 50
4 44
4.44
4.49
4.49
4.48
4 49
3.22
3.13
5.45
5 /s
5.45
5.45
5.45
5.45
5 46
5.46
5.46
5.45
5.45
5.45
/ Lc
3 06
1 OQ
5.45
5 /*>
318
£ /£
4«92
3.15
3.17
3.24
3.27
3.24
3.35
3.40
3.46
3.54
5.45
5.45
5.44
5.44
5.45
5.46
5.49
5.51
5.62
4.43
4.61
4.63
4.55
4.57
4.63
4.75
4.80
4.79
4.70
4.74
4.65
4.93
5.09
5.33
5.38
5.55
5.67
5.81
6.04
6.14
6.04
6.11
5.98
3.52
3.64
3.72
3.56
3.65
3.77
3.95
4.12
4.12
3.94
3.86
3.86
6.32
6.45
6.51
6.58
6.63
6.81
6.77
2,274.2
2,373.7
2,568.6
2,358.9
2,410.8
2,489.5
2,456.0
2,455.0
2,541.6
2,582.7
2,486.2
2,414.7
4.40
4.47
5.53
5.35
3.54
3.52
6.62
6.46
2,620.2
p2,601.2
/
"I c.
L /5
/ /Q
1 1L
3.28
3.28
3.20
3.20
3.18
3.19
3.23
3.25
3d8
(NA)
(NA)
JllflG
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except tnose that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by an asterisk (*). Series numbers
are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. The "r" indicates revised; "p"f preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
•"•See "New Features and Changes for This Issue," page
iii.
33
TABLE
BASIC DATA
MARCH 1967
bed
LATEST DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES—Continued
Other Selected U.S. Series—Continued
Year and month
87. General im- 88. Merchandise
trade balance
ports, total
(series 86 minus
series 87)
1963
J U |y
August
September
October
November
December
1964
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1965
January
February
March
April
May.
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1966
January
February
March
April
May.
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1967
January
February
March
April
May
June
!
(Mil.dol.) 2
Revised
1,449.6
1,497.4
1,442.9
1,454.5
1,465.2
1,477.8
(Mil.dol.)2
Revised
+391.5
+424.7
+515.2
+513.2
+500.1
+615.4
1,418.1
1,458.8
1,518.0
1,537.2
1,530.1
1,514.0
1,573.2
1,608.1
1,563.4
1,550.5
1,697.7
1,641.9
+621.5
+599.0
+557.2
+523.8
+517.2
+562.5
+545.4
+491.7
+697.6
+605.9
+508.5
+784.2
1,199.0
1,606.0
1,860.9
1,811.3
1,796.6
1,848.2
1,741.8
1,825.3
1,858.0
1,884.8
1,940.6
1,911.1
+28.5
+878.0
+595.0
+502.7
+386.5
+557.7
+503.6
+433.3
+464.5
+437.5
+451.1
1,947.6
2,005.1
2,067.7
2,108.9
2,062.6
2,135.0
2,204.6
2,112.6
2,301.2
2,262.4
2,191.5
2,231.2
+326.6
+368.6
+500.9
+250.0
+348.2
+354.5
+251.4
+342.4
+24U.4
+320.3
+294.7
KL83.5
2,295.6
£2, 204.1
+324.6
p+397.1
+16.7
89. Excess of receipts (+) or pay- 81. Index of
ments (-) in U.S. balance of payments consumer
prices*
a. Liquidity
b. Official
settlements
balance basis
basis
(Mil. dol.)
-200
-138
-248
...
-552
-617
-1,381
(1957-59=
100)
(Mil. dol.)
0
-92
-144
-326
-231
-845
-697
-618
+226
+239
-534
+232
-332
-1,158
r-544
r-234
r-122
r-203
r-200
r+952
r-558
r-244
94. Index of con- 96. Manufacturers' unfilled
struction conorders, durable
tracts, value
goods industries
(1957-59=
100)
(Bil. dol.)
107.1
107.1
107.1
107.2
107.4
107.6
126
132
128
146
144
148
46.74
46.70
47.07
47.17
47.08
46.68
107.7
107.6
107.7
107.8
107.8
108.0
108.3
108.2
108.4
108.5
108.7
108.8
147
143
140
138
138
138
140
121
131
136
143
154
47.07
47.64
47.80
48.84
49.22
50.04
51.30
51.37
52.14
53.14
53.41
53.96
108.9
108.9
109.0
109.3
109.6
110.1
110.2
110.0
110.2
110.4
110.6
111.0
137
140
141
152
145
139
149
139
147
147
Ul
153
54.28
55.09
55.53
56.37
56.88
57.45
57.83
58.15
59.38
60.66
61.44
62.53
111.0
111.6
112.0
112.5
112.6
112.9
113.3
113.8
114.1
114.5
114.6
114.7
152
157
158
161
156
147
147
139
146
139
130
133
63.80
65.11
66.76
68.25
69.61
71.31
72.65
73.29
75.59
76.38
76.17
r76.42
114.7'
114.8
126
(NA)
r75.52
p74.96
97. Backlog of
capital appropriations, manufacturing!
(Bil. dol.)
10.05
11.02
12.08
13 '.23
14.54
14.97
15^66
17^05
18.17
19-48
20 !34
22.07
22.30
p22*.50
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those tnat appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by44an asterisk (*). Series numbers
are for identification
only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. The r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "eM, estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
1
The data from 1961 on have been adjusted to reflect a change in the seasonal adjustment of appropriations for the petroleum
and coal products industry and a change in the reporting basis of nonelectrical machinery.
These revisions do not materially
affect comparability with the data before 1961.
(See NICE publication, Investment Statistics—Capital Appropriations; First
Quarter 1965.)
2
See "New Features and Changes for This Issue," page iii.
http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/
34
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
bed
BASIC DATA
MARCH 1967
TABLE
LATEST DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES—Continued
International Comparisons
Year and month
47, United
123. Canada,
States, index of index of indusindustrial produc- trial production
tion
1963
(1957-59=
100)
August
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1966
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September ........
October
November
December
1967
January
February
March
April
May
June
-j
126. France,
index of industrial production
(1957-59=
100)
(1957-59=
100)
(1957-59=
100)
(1957-59=
100)
132
132
126
126
126
127
128
129
129
131
132
132
134
134
134
132
136
138
133
134
133
135
133
133
134
135
135
136
139
140
123
123
123
l 3Q
142
1 /l
"1/n
142
142
143
144
147
148
149
151
153
130
140
l/l
141
142
143
144
145
144
146
147
149
151
152
154
154
155
156
157
158
158
159
159
159
153
155
156
156
156
156
154
156
157
159
159
pl59
158
(NA)
125
September
October
November
December
1965
January
125. West
Germany, index
of industrial
production
116
118
117
120
121
121
12b
August
J U |y
121. OECD, 1
European countries, index of
industrial
production
121
123
125
126
128
131
July
September
October
November
December
1964
January
February
March
April
May
June
(1957-59=
100)
122. United
Kingdom, index
of industrial
production
127. Italy, index 128. Japan, index
of industrial
of industrial
production
production
(1957-59=
100)
(1957-59=
100)
129
163
202
134
135
136
136
136
136
138
140
139
129
136
137
136
138
166
171
171
173
170
202
206
211
215
216
139
139
140
139
141
139
138
137
140
143
143
143
142
144
145
140
150
143
147
145
145
149
149
149
140
139
139
141
140
141
132
132
141
142
142
138
172
169
173
168
166
164
166
156
165
166
168
168
220
225
223
225
228
232
234
231
241
241
236
242
146
146
1//
146
148
148
148
148
149
150
150
151
156
137
1 55
1 /Q
154
154
155
151
153
155
156
154
154
1 ^Q
1 3Q
139
142
144
144
144
147
147
150
166
169
166
169
175
176
178
176
178
179
184
183
239
239
244
241
238
244
243
240
247
241
244
246
p!28
151
151
153
153
153
154
154
153
153
152
152
p!52
156
155
160
160
157
161
r!57
151
155
r!55
153
151
r!46
149
r!51
150
150
152
•154
154
154
153
156
p!56
185
186
188
189
196
196
195
199
201
199
201
P205
252
251
255
259
262
268
274
277
283
284
290
r296
(NA)
(NA)
p!49
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
P306
(NA)
124
123
123
1?2
123
123
127
128
129
1 PQ
128
128
129
128
130
129
128
130
130
131
131
130
133
131
130
129
132
132
129
128
127
p!56
134
140
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by an asterisk (*). Series numbers
are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
•"•Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development.
Section TWO
charts and tables
DISTRIBUTION OF 'HIGHS' FOR CURRENT AND COMPARATIVE PERIODS
DIFFUSION INDEXES BASED ON HUNDREDS OF COMPONENTS
Average workweek—21 industries
New orders—36 industries
Capital appropriations—17 industries
Profits—700 companies
Stock prices—80 industries
Industrial materials prices—73 materials
State unemployment claims—47 areas
Nohagricultural employment—30 industries
Production—24 industries
Wholesale prices—23 industries
Retail sales—24 fypes of sfores
Nef sales—800 companies
New orders—400 companies
Carloadings—19 commocfify groups
Plant and equipment expenditures—22 industries
DIRECTIONS OF CHANGE FOR COMPONENTS OF DIFFUSION INDEXES
37
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
**«* i967
DISTRIBUTION OF "HIGHS" FOR CURRENT AND COMPARATIVE PERIODS
Number of series that reached a high before benchmark dates*
Number of months before benchmark date
that high was reached
Current expansion
Nov.
1966
Dec.
1966
Business cycle peak
Jan.
1967
Nov.
1948
Feb.
1967
July
1953
May
1960
July
1957
NBER LEADING INDICATORS
8 months or more
7 months
6 months
5 months
4 months
3 months
2 months
1 month
Benchmark month
13
1
1
1
2
Number of series used
Percent of series high on benchmark date
24
0
13
1
1
2
"3
I
4
2
4
2
I*
2
9
1
13
1
2
15
9
1
5
1
2
'*4
"i
24
16
2
1
2
3
24
24
0
2
1
"i
1
24
4
23
0
14
0
1
20
0
2
21
5
0
NBER ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
1
1
1
2
2
6
1
1
2
6
"l
1
2
6
1
1
1
2
5
11
55
11
55
11
55
11
45
8 months or more
7 months
6 months
5 months
4 months
3 months
2 months
1 month
Benchmark month
Number of series used
Percent of series high on benchmark date
Number of months before benchmark date
that high was reached
1
2
**i
1
3
4
Apr.
1953
Apr.
1957
1
2
1
3
"3
1
2
3
"3
3
"i
4
"2
3
11
27
11
36
11
27
11
0
6th month before business cycle peak
3d month before business cycle peak
Aug.
1948
1
May
1948
Feb.
1960
Jan.
1953
Nov.
1959
Jan.
1957
NBER LEADING INDICATORS
8 months or more
7 months
6 months
5 months
4 months
3 months
2 months
1 month
Benchmark month
Number of series used
Percent of series high on benchmark date
4
13
2
"4
1
X
20
5
4
"2
2
5
1
2
1
2
21
5
21
"i
2
9
i
13
2
1
2
1
2
3
1
l
1
l
4
1
2
3
7
"5
2
3
24
0
24
0
X
20
15
2
21
33
18
"i
2
1
2
6
7
3
2
2
"i
2
1
24
0
24
4
NBER ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
8 months or more
7 months
6 months
5 months
4 months
3 months
2 months
1 month
Benchmark month
Number of series used
Percent of series high on benchmark date
2
1
2
1
1
1
2
i
1
"i
1
i
"3
"i
2
6
"5
4
3
2
"4
5
3
5
11
55
11
36
11
18
11
45
11
45
"i
1
3
6
11
55
"4
4
2
1
"i
4
3
11
36
n
27
NOTE: All quarterly series and 2 monthly series (series 15, a leading indicator, and series 40, a roughly coincident indicator) are omitted from the distribution.
series were not available.
1 series was not available and 2 series were omitted because their peaks were reached during the Korean War and such peaks
were disregarded in this distribution.
X
4
2
38
bed
MARCH 1967
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
DIFFUSION INDEXES
CHART
FROM 1948 TO PRESENT
NBER Leading Indicators
Percent
til. Avg.: workweek, prodi wkrs., ;mfg.-21
1 D6. New ordejrs, dur. goods indus.-36 indus.
Dll. Newly approved capital appropriations
i7~4wlwi,r NICE
span,! — — 1-Q span;)
D34. Profits, FNCB of NY, percent reporting
[1-Q span;)!
D19. Stock (prices, 500 common stocks-80 indus
ials prices-13 indus. mtls.
D5. Initial claims, Sfate unempl. bs|ir.~47 areas j (inverted)
39
CHART
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
MARCH 7967
bed
DIFFUSION INDEXES FROM 1948 TO PRESENT-Continued
B
40
NBER Roughly Coincident Indicators
Percent
D41. Employees in nonagr. establishments-30 indus.
(6-mo. span —
1-mo. span —)
100
50
0
047. Industrial production-24 indus.
(6-mo. span —
1-mo. span —)
100
50
0
D58. Wholesale prices, mfrd. goods-23 indus.
(6-mo. span —
1-mo. span —)
100
50
0
D54. Sales of retail stores -24
(9-mo. span —
types of stores
1-mo. span —)
100
50
0
.JJJ
bed
CHART
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
MARCH 1967
DIFFUSION INDEXES FROM 1948
TO PRESENT—Continued
Actual and Anticipated Indexes
Percent
D35. Net sales, all mfrs.-800 cos.
(4-Q span)
100
SO
0
D36. New orders, dur. goods mfrs.-400 cos.
(4-Q span)
100
50
0
D48. Carloadings-19 mfrd. commodity groups
(4-Q span)
100
50
0
D48. Change in total carloadings
(millions of cars-4-Q span)
+0.5
0
<
v-0.5
D61. New plant and equipment expend.-17-22 Indus.
(1-Q span)
100
50
0
Data are centered within spans. Latest data are as follows:
Series number and
date of survey
D35.D36, (Jan. 1967)
D48 (Dec. 1966)
D61 (Feb. 1967)
Actual
4th Q 1965-4th Q 1966
1st Q 1965-lst Q 1966
3d Q 1966-4th Q 1966
•
• M$'
Anticipated
2d Q 1966-2d Q 1967
1st Q 1966- 1st Q 1967
1st Q 1967-2d Q 1967
'67
41
TABLE
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
MARCH 1967
bed
LATEST DATA FOR DIFFUSION INDEXES
NBER Leading Indicators
Dl. Average workweek, manufacturing
(21 industries)
D6. Value of manufacturers' new orders,
durable goods industries (36 industries)
1-month span
1-month span
Year and month
9-month span
9-month span
Dll. Newly approved capital appropriations,
NICB (17 industries)*
1-quarter span
3-quarter span
1963
July
August
September
October
November
December
1964
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1965
January
February
March
April
May.
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1966
January
February
March
April
May.
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
61.9
45.2
71.450.0
33.3
64.3
71.4
69.0
57.1
61.9
57.1
78.6
51.4
52.8
52.8
69.4
33.3
62.5
62.5
72.2
69.4
58.3
83-3
77.8
0.0
85.7
47.6
78.6
31.0
31.0
69.0
73.8
14.3
61.9
69.0
90.5
69.0
52.4
61.9
81.0
50.0
85.7
78.6
92.9
85.7
88.1
95.2
57.1
55.6
44.4
58.3
61.1
44.4
50.0
63.9
40.3
54.2
58.3
55.6
68.1
76.4
83-3
80.6
75.0
72.2
58.3
63.9
83.3
72.2
63.9
61.1
68.1
61.9
57.1
76.2
19.0
81.0
28.6
52.4
59-5
40.5
71.4
81.0
54.8
83.3
81.0
78.6
61.9
47.6
54-8
71.4
64.3
81.0
95.2
92.9
83.3
48.6
38.9
63.9
50.0
44-4
58.3
59.7
41.7
61.1
61.1
55.6
76.4
57.1
69.0
40.5
50.0
50.0
33.3
21.4
61.9
64.3
45.2
40.5
rl9.0 •
83.3
76.2
31.0
35.7
45.2
35.7
38.1
9.5
rll.9
pO.O
30.6
50.0
84.7
41.7
50.0
51.4
50.0
59.7
37.5
50.0
44.4
r'55.6
53
65
*65
...
76
53
76
*56
71
*53
44
32
59
77.8
75.0
77.8
68.1
66.7
68.1
91.7
83.3
80.6
81.9
86.1
83.3
76
...
65
71
*76
53
*82
*59
71
75.0
75.0
66.7
72.2
58.3
59.7
55.6
r44./
r43.1
P33.3
65
76
*53
*53
*32
P41
p47
1967
January
February
March
April
May.
June
r66.7
P4.8
r36.1
P36.1
NOTE: Figures are tne percent of series components
rising„ and
1-mpntn
indexes are^laced
....are. centered. within spans:
.
.
i latest month and 9-month indexes are placed
r
A :
onth of
of span; 1-quarter indexes are
" 1st month of the 2nd
~ quarter
' and"*3-quarter
-- indexes
- j , —are_ placed
- . . . on. the 1st month of the 3d quarter. Seasonally adon the 6th month
are p"
placed' on the
itifies 1the components for most of the indexes shown. The V indicates revised; "p", preliminary; and "NA", not available.
justed components are used. Table 5 identifies
•"•The data from 1961 on have been adjusted to reflect a change in the seasonal adjustment of appropriations for the petroleum
and coal products industry and a change in the reporting basis of nonelectrical machinery.
These revisions do not materially
f.ffect comparability with the data before 1961.
(See NICB publication, Investment Statistics—Capital Appropriations: First
Quarter 1965.)
http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/
42
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
bed
TABLE
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
MARCH 7967
LATEST DATA FOR DIFFUSION INDEXES—Continued
NBER Leading Indicators—Continued
Year and month
)34. Profits, manufacturing, FNCB
around 700 corporations)
1-quarter span
D19. Index of stock prices, 5001 common
stocks (80 industries)
1-month span
9-mcnth span
D23. Index of industrial materials prices
(13 industrial materials)
1-month span
9-month span
D5. Initial claims for unemployment insurance, State programs,
week including the 12th (47 areas)
1-month span
9-month span
1963
JUly
56
August
September
October
November
December
55
1964
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1965
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1966
January
February .
...
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1967
January
February
March
April
May
June
59
*58
59
...
56
57
'*56
57
...
60
59
*59
"56
'54
29.4
75.0
76.9
44.9
44.9
68.4
78.2
79.5
77.6
69.2
71.2
84-4
46,2
38.5
69.2
69.2
50.0
57.7
61.5
61.5
61.5
53.8
61.5
76.9
44.7
44.7
44.7
59.6
40.4
23.4
46.8
31.9
85.1
60.6
53.2
73.4
74.7
65.2
78.5
75.6
52.6
35.3
89.7
41.0
76.3
73.1
59.6
24.0
83.1
78.2
86.5
85.9
84.6
84.6
81.8
68.8
65.6
75.3
76.6
76.6
53.8
53.8
46.2
65.4
30.8
53.8
46.2
76.9
69.2
73.1
61.5
38.5
61.5
69.2
69.2
76.9
76.9
80.8
84.6
76.9
69.2
69.2
76.9
69.2
89.4
27.7
57.4
77.7
48.9
48.9
63.8
51.1
53.2
34.0
31.9
83.0
73.4
72.3
70.2
74.5
89.4
60.6
61.7
89.4
61.7
70.2
74.5
72.3
92.2
81.8
64-3
70.8
66.9
0.0
24.7
79.9
81.2
66.9
70.1
57.1
80.5
58.4
51.9
58.4
72.7
67.5
61.0
59.1
63.6
60.4
67.5
70.1
53.8
30.8
69.2
76.9
53.8
57.7
46.2
42.5
50.0
15.4
34.6
61.5
69.2
76.9
61.5
69.2
53.8
53.8
46.2
46.2
46.2
46.2
38.5
53.8
24.5
57.4
66.0
61.7
59.6
51.1
34.0
38.3
78.7
57.4
44.7
51.1
78.7
78.7
59.6
66.0
61.7
78.7
80.9
87.2
70.2
62.8
91.5
95.7
74.0
48.7
14.3
63.6
3.9
23.4
38.3
6.5
3.9
25.3
88.3
59.7
51.9
43.5
37.7
22.1
11.7
6.5
9.7
22.1
20.1
47.4
61.5
76.9
46.2
30.8
42.3
46.2
61.5
26.9
0.0
19.2
30.8
57.7
53.8
61.5
61.5
53.8
30.8
15.4
7.7
7.7
7.7
0.0
2
0.0
38.3
44.7
83.0
53.2
45.7
57.4
17.0
72.3
80.9
36.2
46.8
27.7
91.5
74.5
44.7
68.1
76.6
78.7
80.9
34.0
34.0
23.4
90.9
92.2
46.2
53.8
2
23.1
55.3
17.0
NOTE: Figures are the percent of series components rising and are centered within spans: 1-month indexes are placed on latest month and 9-month indexes are placed
on the 6th month of span; 1-quarter indexes are placed on thelst month of the 2d quarter. Seasonally adjusted components are used except in indexes D19 which requires no
adjustment and D34 which is adjusted only for the index. Table 5 identifies the components for most of the indexes shown. The V indicates revised; "p", preliminary; and
"NA", not available.
•"•The diffusion index is based on 80 components through August 1963; on 79 components, September 1963 to March 1964;
ponents, April 1964 to November 1964; and on 77 components thereafter.
2
Average for March 16, 17, and 20.
on 78 com-
43
TABLE
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
MARCH 1967
bed
LATEST DATA FOR DIFFUSION INDEXES—Continued
NBER Roughly Coincident Indicators
Year and month
D41. Number of employees in
nonagricultural establishments
(30 industries)
1-month span
D47. Index of industrial production
(24 industries)
D54. Sales of retail stores
(24 types of stores)1
D58. Index of wholesale prices
(23 manufacturing industries)
6-month span
1-month span
6-month span
1-month span
9-month span
73.3
53.3
55.0
73.3
45.0
66.7
66.7
51.7
55.0
53.3
65.0
70.0
72.9
68.8
58.3
64.6
50.0
77.1
91.7
77.1
79.2
77.1
83.3
85.4
66.7
64.6
25.0
58.3
54.2
77.1
52.5
87.5
70.8
91.7
83.3
77.1
50.0
58.7
52.2
69.6
63.0
71.7
71.7
78.3
71.7
69.6
67.4
82.6
45.0
75-0
73.3
68.3
65.0
73.3
63.3
65.0
83.3
61.7
86.7
73.3
68.3
70.0
73.3
83.3
78.3
76.7
76.7
93.3
91.7
80.0
91.7
91.7
70.8
77.1
66.7
87.5
66.7
66.7
81.2
75.0
45.8
79.2
79.2
87.5
91.7
95.8
95.8
91.7
87.5
89.6
70.8
83.3
95.8
83.3
91.7
91.7
43.8
70.8
52.1
52.1
66.7
66.7
39.1
71.7
34.8
78.3
56.5
60.9
79.2
100.0
85.4
83.3
83.3
83.3
73.9
78.3
73.9
76.1
54.3
78.3
63.0
69o6
52.2
71.7
34.8
34.8
69.6
65.2
60.9
56.5
56.5
60.9
69.6
69.6
69.6
56.5
56.5
56.5
60.9
58.7
60.9
69.6
78.3
82.6
73.3
70.0
86.7
63.3
63.3
88.3
88.3
70.0
71.7
88'. 3
93.3
86.7
81.7
78.3
80.0
80.0
81.7
75.0
88.3
91.7
93.3
90.0
95-0
93.3
79.2
70.8
77.1
56.2
70.8
91.7
81.2
75.0
54.2
79.2
83.3
87.5
83.3
85.4
87.5
83.3
83.3
79.2
87.5
91.7
87.5
87.5
89.6
100.0
63.0
65.2
30.4
54.3
87.0
43.5
80.4
47.8
73.9
78.3
78.3
37.0
80.4
87.0
87.0
73.9
87.0
87.0
95.7
91.3
95.7
95.7
95.7
91.3
63.0
60.9
67.4
67.4
60.9
60.9
60.9
54.3
52.2
52.2
69.6
73.9
76.1
80.4
82.6
76.1
67.4
69.6
60.9
60-. 9
71.7
73.9
87.0
89.1
85.0
85.0
91.7
73.3
76.7
91.7
48.3
73.3
23.3
75.0
88.3
r63.3
95.0
91.7
86.7
85.0
81.7
73.3
75.0
75.0
r71.7
r8l.7
P71.7
70.8
70.8
87.5
64.6
58.3
87.5
45.8
60.4
39.6
60.4
r50.0
r58.3
95.8
91.7
87.5
70.8
75.0
62.5
64.6
r58.3
54.2
r58.3
P37.5
71.7
65.2
60.9
43.5
30.4
95.7
47.8
47.8
60.9
43.5
69.6
r£L.3
82.6
84.8
78.3
78.3
82.6
78.3
76.1
r65.2
r78.3
P78.3
63.0
80.4
71.7
73.9
71.7
73.9
78.3
52.2
43.5
54.3
60.9
65.2
89.1
95.7
89.1
95.7
91.3
82.6
69.6
69.6
63.0
2
55.0
2
70.0
1-month span
6-month span
1963
July
August ;
September
October
November
December
1964
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1965
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1966
January
February
March
April
May.
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1967
January
February
March
April
May.
June
r75.0
p40.C
r37.5
p6.2
r82.6
P43.5
2
3
57.5
75.0
NOTE: Figures are the percent of series components rising and are centered within spans: 1-month indexes are placed on latest month, 6-month indexes iare placed on
the 4th month, and 9-month indexes are placed on the 6th month of span. Seasonally adjusted components are used. Table 5 identifies the components for the indexes shown.
The V indicates revised; "p" preliminary; and "NA", not available.
•"•The diffusion index is based on 24 components through June 1964, and on 23 components thereafter.
2
Based on 20 components.
3
Based on 22 components.
http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/
44 of St. Louis
Federal Reserve Bank
bed
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
MARCH 1967
TABLE
LATEST DATA FOR DIFFUSION INDEXES—Continued
Actual and Anticipated Indexes
D35. Net sales, manufactures
(800 companies)
D36. New orders, durable manufactures (400 companies)
D48. Freight carloadings (19 manufactured
commodity groups)
D61. New plant and equipment
expenditures (16 industries)
4-quarter span
4-quarter span
4-quarter span
1-quarter span
Year and month
Actual
1963
July
August
September
October
November
December
1964
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September ........
October
November
December
1965
January
February
March
April
May
,
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1966
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1967
January
February
March
April
May
. y
June
y
Anticipated
Anticipated
Actual
Actual
Anticipated
Change in
total (000)
*82
*84
82
*80
78*.9
78.9
+4
"si
•••
*85
82
"si
68ii
73.7
-60
*83
*87
"si
"si
8i!2
68*.i
-9
82
*86
81
"si
73.7
9A-7
H-6
*83
*87
"si
"si
52^6
89.5
H7
"si
*88
*84
*85
52^6
89.5
U7
90
• ••
*88
*90
"si
.63*2
8^.2
+25
*88
*88
*88
"si
63*.2
8^.2
^18
*88
90
*89
*87
73.7
73.7
+28
*89
*91
88
*90
(NA)
89^5
+18
*87
*91
*85
*89
84.2
+20
"si
*88
*82
"83
78*.9
84
82
"si
"so
78.9
Actual
Anticipated
75.0
71.9
71^9
75.0
71.9
50.0
62*. 5
50.0
si.'i
75.0
96.9
68!s
56.2
65.6
75^0
68.8
r83*.3
6%6
r75.0
84. A
r83.3
62.5
r83.3
7l!9
r55.6
37^5
75.0
65*.6
+1
p-59
!
r50.0
52.8
NOTE- Figures are the percent of series components rising and are centered within spans: 4-quarter indexes are centered in the middle quarter; 1-quarter indexes are
placed in the 1st month of the 2d quarter. Seasonally adjusted components are used for series D61; other indexes, based on 4-quarter spans (same quarter a year ago), require
no seasonal adjustment. The V indicates revised; "p", preliminary; and "NA", not available.
TABLE
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
MARCH 7967
bed
SELECTED DIFFUSION INDEXES AND COMPONENTS
Basic Data
1966
1967
1966
Diffusion index title and components
Jan.
Feb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
Oct.
Nov.
Dec.r
Jan.
Feb.?
Average weekly hours
Dl. AVERAGE WORKWEEK OF PRODUCTION
WORKERS, MANUFACTURING 1
(21 industry components)
All manufacturing industries
41.4
41.5
41.5
41.5
41.5
41.3
41.3
40.9
r41.0-
40.3
Durable goods industries:
Ordnance and accessories
Lumber and wood products
Furniture and fixtures
Stone, clay, and glass products
Primary metal industries
Fabricated metal products
42.4
41.4
41.7
42.5
41.9
42.5
42.3
41.2
41.7
42.4
41.9
42.5
42.0
41.1
41.9
42.8
41.9
42.4
42.2
41.3
41.6
42.1
41.8
42.4
42.4
41.4
42.0
41.8
42.2
42.4
42.2
40.4
41.2
41.8
42.7
42.4
42.7
40.4
41.1
41.7
42.5
42.2
42.1
40.2
40.5
42.4
41.5
42.2
42.0
r40.1r40.8
x-41.9
r41.6
r42.3
41.5
39.8
39.9
41.6
40.7
41.2
43.8
41.5
43.4
42.2
40.0
43.9
41.5
43.3
42.3
40.2
44.0
41.3
42.9
42.4
40.3
43.7
41.4
43.4
42.0
40.0
43.8
41.3
42.2
42.4
40.3
43.9
41.1
42.4
42.0
40.0
44.0
40.9
42.0
41.7
40.0
43.6
40.6
41.5
41.8
39.7
r43.7
r40.9
r41.8
41.7
r40.0
42.8
39.7
41.0
41.2
38.9
41.1
38.9
42.2
36.3
43.3
41.5
41.3
42.3
36.5
43.5
41.1
39.4
42.4
36.5
43.5
41.1
39.2
41.9
36.4
43.7
40.9
38.5
42.2
36.5
43.7
41.0
37.7
41.3
36.7
43.1
41.1
38.5
41.0
36.5
43.6
41.0
39.2
40.8
36.5
43.0
41.1
r38.5
r41.0
r36.7
r43.2
40.8
37.0
40.1
35.8
42.8
38.5
42.0
42.3
42.3
38.5
38.7
42.1
42.6
42.3
38.7
38.7
42.0
42.6
42.2
38.5
38.9
42.3
42.6
42.4
39.0
38.7
41.9
42.5
42.1
39.0
39.0
42.2
42.4
42.1
38.8
39.0
42.2
42.6
42.0
38.8
38.6
42.0
42.4
41.4
38.0
38.8
x-41.9
r41.9
r41.5
r38.4
38.6
41.4
42.3
41.0
37.5
23,027
23,960
3,588
1,834
3,677
1,737
Machinery, except electrical
Electrical machinery
Transportation equipment
Instruments and related products
Miscellaneous manufacturing industries
Nondurable goods industries:
Food and kindred products
Tobacco manufactures
Textile mill products
Apparel and related products
Paper and allied products
Printing and publishing
Chemicals and allied products
Petroleum and related products
Rubber and plastic products
Leather and leather products
Millions of dollars
D6. VALUE OF MANUFACTURERS' NEW
ORDERS, DURABLE GOODS INDUSTRIES1
(36 industry components)
All durable goods industries
23,578
23,741
24,888
24,197
24,276
r22,364 22,190
r3,371 3,498
(NA)
pi, 512
Primary metals
Blast furnaces, steel mills
Nonferrous metals
Iron and steel foundries
Other primary metals
3,603
1,776
3,994
2,141
4,057
2,104
3,905
2,037
4,305
2,331
24,244
3,817
1,881
Fabricated metal products
Metal cans, barrels, and drums
Hardware, structural metal and wire products . .
Other fabricated metal products
2,177
2,247
2,411
2,206
2,237
2,231
2,275
2,403
p2,128
(NA)
3,529
3,538
3,553
3,647
3,675
3,582
P 3,379
(NA)
230
335
254
208
350
343
p227
(NA)
689
301
610
309
705
263
707
247
711
266
580
250
p565
p!49
(NA)
(NA)
254
303
251
287
249
263
P330
(NA)
Machinery, except electrical
3,317
3,427
Steam engines and turbines*
223
\
224
Internal combustion engines *
Farm machinery and equipment
Construction, mining, and material handling*. .
638
617
Metalworking machinery *
272
231
Miscellaneous equipment *
Machine shops
Special industry machinery *
General industrial machinery*
Office and store machines*
Service industry machinery *
,
260
,
246
NOTE: Data are not shown when held confidential by the source agency.
p=preliminary.
r = revised.
are seasonally adjusted by source agency.
^Denotes machinery and equipment industries that comprise series 24.
NA = Not available.
7967
TABLE
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
SELECTED DIFFUSION INDEXES AND COMPONENTS— Continued
Directions of Change
1-month spans
9-month spans
1966
1966
1967
1967
Diffusion index title and components
Dl. AVERAGE WORKWEEK OF PRODUCTION
WORKERS, MANUFACTURING
(21 industry components)
Percent rising
All manufacturing industries
Durable goods industries:
Ordnance and accessories
Lumber and wood products
Furniture and fixtures
Stone clay and glass products
Primary metal industries
Fabricated metal products
Machinery, except electrical
Electrical machinery
Transportation equipment
Instruments and related products
Miscellaneous manufacturing industries
Nondurable goods industries:
Food and kindred products
,
Tobacco manufactures
Textile mill products
Apparel and related products
Paper and allied products
Printing and publishing
Chemicals and allied products
Petroleum and related products
Rubber and plastic products
Leather and leather products
|I||I||||£
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33
21
O
+
-
+
62
64
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+
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+
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—
-_
O
+
+
+
-
+
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+
+
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O O
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0
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---
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+
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—
+
- - -
-
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"rZ
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a T ° o
o c - g
O-^LI_
-f
—
_
O -
-
—
+
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-
+
_
O
O
+
+
5
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_
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67
+
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<5>o:f
-
+
O
-
+
+
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+
+
+
-
- O -
-
---
-
-
-
-
D6. VALUE OF MANUFACTURERS' NEW
ORDERS, DURABLE GOODS INDUSTRIES
(36 industry components)
Percent rising
All durable goods industries
Primary metals:
Blast furnaces steel mills
Nonferrous metals
Iron and steel foundries
Other primary metals
50 51 50 60
+ + --
+
+
_
-+
- - +
+ __-
+
+
+
_
+
+
+
+
_
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
-_
Fabricated metal products:
Hardware structural metal and wire products
Machinery, except electrical:
Steam engines and turbines*
Internal combustion engines * . . .
Farm machinery and equipment
Construction, mining, and material handling *
Metalworking machinery*
Miscellaneous equipment *
Machine shops
Special industry machinery *
General industrial machinery*
Office and store machines*
Service industry machinery *
-0
+
_
38 50 44
+ --
+ -+ -
+
-+
-+ + -
+
+
+
+
+
+ + _
--
- + -- + +
+ -_ • + + +
+ + + -
+
+
+
-
+
+
+
+
-
+
+
+
-
+
+
-
+
+
+
-
+
--
_+ +
+
56 36 36
+
--
+
_ _
--
+-
+
+
+
--
+
+
+
+
+
+
-
+
+
-
+
+
+
-
+
+
+
+
+
+
-
0
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
-.-
+
+
+
+
+
+
_
----+
- - - - + + -
+
+
_
+
+
+
+
--
+
+
_
+
-
-
+
+ = rising; o = unchanged;- = falling. Directions of change are computed even though data are held confidential,
comprise series 24.
75 75 67 72 58 60 56 44 43 33
+
+ + + + +
- - - -
_
_ _
_
+
+
-
-
-
-
+
+
+
_+
_
_ -
+
-
+
+
-
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
--+
+
---
+
+
+
+
+
_
+
_
_
-
+
+
-
-
+
+
+
+
+
•
-
-
-
0-
+
+
_
-
-
-
-
+
+
+
+
-
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
•+ +
+ -
-
+
-
+
+
--
+
-
+ +
*Denotes machinery and equipment industries that
TABLE
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
MARCH
1967
bed
SELECTED DIFFUSION INDEXES AND COMPONENTS—Continued
Basic Data—Continued
1966
1966
1967
Diffusion index title and components
Feb.
Jan.
Mar.
Apr.
May
Oct
Nov.
Dec.
Jan.
Feb.
Mar.1
Millions of dollars
D6. VALUE OF MANUFACTURERS' NEW ORDERS,
DURABLE GOODS INDUSTRIES 2 - Continued
3,462
Electrical machinery
Electrical transmission, distr. equipment*
Electrical industrial apparatus*
Household appliances
Radio and TV
Communication equipment t
Electronic components
Other electrical machinery*
Transportation equipment
Motor vehicle parts
\
3,332
3,489
3,466
3,579
727 762
705
731
844
797
3,612
828
724
725
888
672
777
6,526
6,574
6,873
6,561
6,488
6,860
3,507
r3,358 P3,516
(NA)
794
r750
p835
(NA)
749
r675
p706
(NA)
r6,540
r5,684
P 5,552
105.9
105.8
106.8
105.2
102.3
.499
.063
28.942
1.512
.469
.063
.500
.062
26.316
1.547
.459
.064
27.603
1.580
.390
.062
29.644
1.608
.149
.147
.221
.201
1.624
.150
.150
.220
.202
1.628
.151
.150
.218
.200
1.605
.211
.202
10.938 10.828
.209
.219
.061
.056
.176
10.732
.203
.049
5,714
••
^hinhni Irlino and railrnarl Pfininmpnt-xHthpr trancnnrt atinn pmiinmpnt
Instruments, total
Lumber, total
Furniture total
Stone clay and glass total
Other durable goods, total
D23. INDEX OF INDUSTRIAL
MATERIALS PRICES3
(13 industrial materials components)
Industrial materials price index
Index: 1957-59 = 100
123.5
121.5
118.3
.586
.522
.076
.073
35.262 37.719
1.791 1.847
.150
.149
.161
.159
.297
.294
.207
.207
1.726
1.724
.632
.078
36.019
1.808
.620
.082
31.479
1.770
.586
.075
30.384
1.678
.150
.170
.292
.205
1.762
.151
.169
.291
.215
1.787
.206
11.663
.252
.080
.237
11.420
.257
.073
120.5
122.9
106.3
Dollars
Copper scrap (Ib.)
Lead scrap (Ib.)
Steel scrap (ton)
Tin (Ib.)
Zinc(lb)
Burlap (yd.)
Cotton (Ib.), 15-market average
Print cloth (yd ) average
Wool tops (Ib )
Hides (Ib )
Rosin (100 Ib )
Rubber (Ib )
Tallow (Ib )
•
D54. SALES OF RETAIL STORES2
(23 retail store components)
All retail sales
Grocery stores
Other food stores
Eating and drinking places
Department stores
Mail order houses (department store merchandise).
Variety stores
Other general merchandise stores
Men's and boys' wear stores
.232
11.535
.259
.077
.493
.065
29.442
1.519
.150
.151
.140
.163
.222
.291
.212
.217
1.811 1.648
.207
.212
11.341 11.103
.239
.235
.072
.071
.164
10.872
.216
.062
.148
.141
.222
.211
1.640
.170
10.872
.215
.056
28.882
1.528
.148
.143
.221
.208
1.633
.180
10.905
.223
.061
Millions of dollars
r25,08l
25,049
25,536
24,949
5,278
5,359
5,391
5,467
5,431
5,452
1,879
2,119
243
451
1,915
2,127
223
457
1,935
2,119
220
459
1,924
2,099
224
453
1,910
2,113
216
467
1,974
2,195
229
484
1,979
2,273
238
503
289
289
277
279
283
294
303
24,475
25,550
25,610 r25,368 r25,703 p25,277
(NA)
5,437 r5,376 p5,412
r2,019 p2,051
r2,l62 p2,234
216
p220
r475
P4B3
r282
P313
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
NOTE: Data are not shown when held confidential by the source agency.
*Denotes machinery and equipment industries that comprise series 24.
t These indus
tries plus ordnance comprise series 99.
NA-Not available.
p = preliminary.
r = revised.
1
Average for March 16, 17, and 20.
^Data are -seasonally adjusted by the source agency.
3
Series components are seasonally adjusted by the Bureau of the Census, (See "Seasonal and Related Statistical Adjustments,"
page
http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ 2.) Industrial materials price index is not seasonally adjusted.
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
bed
TABLE
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
MARCH 1967
SELECTED DIFFUSION INDEXES AND COMPONENTS—Continued
Directions of Change—Continued
1-month spans
9-month spans
1967
1966
1967
1966
Diffusion index title and components
D6. VALUE OF MANUFACTURERS' NEW ORDERS,
DURABLE GOODS INDUSTRIES- Continued
Electrical machinery:
Electrical transmission, distr. equipment * .,
Household appliances ,
Radio and TV
Communication equipment! .
Electronic components
Other electrical machinery*.
Transportation equipment:
Motor vehicle parts
Motor vehicle assembly operations ..
Cpmplete aircraftt
Aircraft partst
Shipbuilding and railroad equipment*.
Other transportation equipment
Instruments, total
Lumber, total ...!!!.'!!!!!!.'!."!.".'.'
Furniture, total
Stone, clay, and glass, total
Other durable goods, total
D23. INDEX OF INDUSTRIAL
MATERIALS PRICES2
(13 industrial materials components)
Percent rising
Industrial materials price index
+
42 46 62 27
o + -
Copper scrap (Ib.).
Lead scrap (Ib.) ..
Steel scrap (ton)..
Tin(lb.)
Zinc(lb.)
Burlap (yd.)
Cotton (Ib.), 15-market average
Print cloth (yd.), average
Wool tops (Ib.)
Hides (Ib.)
Rosin (100 Ib.)
Rubber (Ib.)
Tallow (Ib.)
D54. SALES OF RETAIL STORES
(23 retail store components)
30
Percent rising
All retail sales
«
Grocery stores
Other food stores
Eating and drinking places
Department stores
Mail order houses (department store merchandise)..
Variety stores
Other general merchandise stores
Men's and boys' wear stores
96
48 48
0
19 31
58 46
61 44 70 41
54 23
83 44
54
62
83
85 78 78
1
Average for March 16, 17, and 20.
Directions of change are computed before figures are rounded.
0
54 31 15
83 78 76 65
78
0
78
o
+ = rising; o = unchanged;- = falling. Directions of change are computed even though data are held confidential,
comprise series 24.
tThese industries plus ordnance compri se series 99.
2
62
*Denotes machinery and equipment industries that
TABLE
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
bed
MARCH 1967
SELECTED DIFFUSION INDEXES AND COMPONENTS—Continued
Basic Data—Continued
1966
1966
1967
Diffusion index title and components
Jan.
Feb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
Oct.
Dec.r
Nov.
Jan. P
Feb.
Millions of dollars
D54. SALES OF RETAIL STORES1- Continued
Women's apparel accessory stores
Family and other apparel stores
Shoe stores
Furniture home furnishings stores
Household appliance TV radio stores
Lumberyards building materials dealers
Hardware stores
Farm equipment dealers
Passenger car and other automotive dealers
Tire battery accessory dealers
Gasoline service stations
Drug and proprietary stores
Liquor stores
Jewelry stores
Other durable-goods stores
Other nondurable-goods stores
.
.
570
594
569
579
578
589
573
536
586
(NA)
240
759
378
896
253
240
730
405
862
252
232
765
405
895
255
223
741
379
797
237
232
734
372
752
238
232
766
402
724
247
242
775
416
737
249
233
741
425
747
250
251
785
423
794
263
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
4,610
274
1,907
806
560
4,504
277
1,907
806
561
4,822
299
1,907
816
559
4,302
278
1,927
843
564
4,017
271
1,920
831
560
4,618
303
1,926
859
561
4,445
316
1,939
876
570
4,445
300
1,915
892
564
4,293
308
1,929
887
593
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
}
-
Apr.
May
June
1967
1966
1966
Aug.
July
Oct.
Nov.
Dec.r
Jan. r
65,372 65,495
142
137
536
533
380
381
507
516
1,078
1,090
1,070
1,074
1,353
1,363
1,357
1,363
1,370
1,369
287
287
358
353
Feb.?
Thousands of employees
D41. NUMBER OF EMPLOYEES IN
NONAGRICULTURAL ESTABLISHMENTS1
(30 industry components)
Ail nonagricultural establishments
Ordnance and accessories
Lumber and wood products
Furniture and fixtures
Stone, clay, and glass products
Primary metal industries
Fabricated metal products
Machinery
Electrical equipment
Transportation equipment
Instruments and related products
Miscellaneous manufacturing industries
63,350
114
554
374
521
1,066
1,049
1,284
1,297
1,344
270
353
63,517
118
546
379
516
1,070
1,046
1,299
1,308
1,351
273
355
63,983
120
550
381
515
1,086
1,048
1,312
1,327
1,358
276
355
64,072
122
543
378
515
1,090
1,043
1,331
1,320
1,324
277
350
64,199
124
542
382
512
1,100
1,060
1,338
1,353
1,353
278
353
64,466
128
529
381
507
1,102
1,062
1,346
1,363
1,392
280
352
64,823
131
530
385
507
1,103
1,074
1,348
1,358
1,395
281
355
65,076
133
529
384
511
1,092
1,075
1,360
1,355
1,392
285
355
Food and kindred products
Tobacco manufactures
Textile mill products
Apparel and related products
Paper and allied products
Printing and publishing
Chemicals and allied products
Petroleum and related products
Rubber and plastic products
Leather and leather products
1,163
74
847
1,239
518
647
559
113
395
319
1,154
73
850
1,257
519
648
564
113
396
319
1,166
74
854
1,268
525
654
578
115
403
316
1,165
73
850
1,232
530
656
577
115
403
307
1,170
68
856
1,239
528
659
582
115
406
312
1,156
66
847
1,246
525
659
576
114
409
310
1,186
74
847
1,250
531
662
581
115
413
310
1,184
74
848
1,251
530
666
582
115
417
308
1,188
77
846
1,258
530
673
583
115
417
306
1,183
73
837
1,240
533
674
584
114
414
302
Mining
Contract construction
Transportation and public utilities
Wholesale trade
Retail trade
595
3,333
4,114
3,434
9,694
628
3,238
4,132
3,445
9,719
632
3,300
4,143
3,470
9,747
636
3,297
4,122
3,483
9,773
636
3,251
4,105
3,483
9,781
625
3,202
4,165
3,486
9,854
624
3,204
4,195
3,505
9,888
626
3,293
4,196
3,515
9,877
627
3,301
4,233
3,533
9,966
625
3,357
4,230
3,538
9,962
NOTE: Data are not shown when held confidential by the source agency.
•"•Data are seasonally adjusted by the source agency.
NA = Not available.
p=preliminary.
r=revised.
MAKCH J967
TABLE
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
SELECTED DIFFUSION INDEXES AND COMPONENTS— Continued
Directions of Change—Continued
9-month spans
1-month spans
Diffusion index title and components
CD
c-o
CD
00
"=3
5- Jf
CD
o
00
o
9
o
I
0
oo
c
TO
CD
k
Q
1967
1966
1967
1966
§-
s
00
00
o
-^
g-
0
"o
0
o
TO
1
o
CD
Q
c=
1
Q.
-Q
£
D54. SALES OF RETAIL STORES - Continued
Women's apparel accessory stores
Family and other apparel stores
Shoe stores
Furniture, home furnishings stores
Household appliance, TV, radio stores
Lumber yards, building materials dealers
Hardware stores
Farm equipment dealers
Passenger car and other automotive dealers
Tire, battery, accessory dealers
Gasoline service stations
Drug and proprietary stores
Liquor stores
Jewelry stores
Other durable-goods stores
Other nondurable-goods stores
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
o
4-
44-
4-
4-
4-
4-
44-
1
~
4-
4-
+
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
-
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
44-
D41. NUMBER OF EMPLOYEES IN
NONAGRICULTURAL ESTABLISHMENTS
(30 industry components)
Percent rising
All nonagricultural establishments
Ordnance and accessories
Lumber and wood products
Furniture and fixtures
Stone clay and glass products
Primary metal industries
Fabricated metal products
Machinery
Electrical equipment
Transportation equipment
Instruments and related products
Miscellaneous manufacturing industries
Food and kindred products
Tobacco manufactures
Textilp mill products
Apparel and related products
Paper and allied products
Printing and publishing
Chemicals and allied products
Petroleum and related products •
Rubber and plastic products
Leather and leather products . ••
Mining
Contract construction
Transportation and public utilities
Wholesale trade
Retai 1 trade
+ = rising; o = unchanged;
1 £
<c s
j
77
92
4.8
4-
4-
4-
4-
+
cp
00
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
+
4-
4-
4-
4-
0
4-
4-
4-
4-
44-
O
4-
44-
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
1
00
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
-h
4-
4-
4-
O
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
TO
CD
SE
o
£
5
=3
t
00
3
Q
5
CD
LJ_
75
4-0
92
87
8$
82
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
O
0
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
44-
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
0
4-
4-
4-
4-
0
O
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
44-
+
4-
0
4-
-
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
-h
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
0
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
0
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
O
4-
4-'
4-
4-
4-
+
4-
4-
44-
4-
4-
o
4-
4-
4-
0
O
4-
4-
-
4-
4-
-1-
4-
4-
0
4-
4-
4-
4-
+
O
4-
O
4-
4-
4-
4-
0
4-
4-
4-
4-
44-
4-
O
4-
0
4-
4-
4-
4-
O
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
f
4-
44-
4-
4-
O
4-
72
4-
4-
0
82
4-
4-
4-
oo
4-
4-
0
4-
+
4-
4-
72
4-
44-
4-
75
4-
4-
4-
75
+
-
O
S
M
=3
4-
4-
4-
O
73
O
O
4-
"S.
Q
CD
0.
4-
4-
O
4-
4-
O
J
4-
4-
4-
o
"o
I
9
4-
+
44-
1967
1966
4-
4-
4-
4-
63
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
+
4-
4-
4-
88
4-
O
4-
4-
4-
44-
0
0
44-
4-
75
4-
4-
4-
4-
23
o
44-
4-
4-
4-
73
O
4-
4-
4-
6-month spans
4-
4-
44-
44-
o
0
44-
44-
4-
CD
"o
oo
4-t-
4-
1967
00
Z3
=J
4-
4-
4-
1966
CD
4-
4-
O
4-
4-
44-
4-
4-
1-month spans
TO
4-
4-
O
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
+
4-
4-
4-
4-
44-
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
44-
4-
4-
4-
44-
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
44-
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
0
O
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
44-
4-
4-
4-
44-
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
0
4-
4-
• 4-
4-
4-
- = falling. Directions of change are computed even though data are held confidential.
44-
4-
44-
O
TABLE
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
MARCH 1967
bed
SELECTED DIFFUSION INDEXES AND COMPONENTS—Continued
Basic Data—Continued
1966
Apr.
May
June
1967
1966
July
Aug.
Oct.
Nov.
Dec.
Feb.
Jan.
Thousands of employees
D41. NUMBER OF EMPLOYEES IN
NONAGRICULTURAL ESTABLISHMENTS1-^
Finance insurance real estate
Service and miscellaneous
Federal government
State and local government
3,068
9,484
2,501
8,204
3,076
9,515
2,523
8,239
3,090
9,549
2,571
8,314
3,095
9,609
2,601
8,328
D47. INDEX OF INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION1
(24 industry components)
All industrial production
Durable goods:
Primary and fabricated metals
Primary metal products
Fabricated metal products
Machinery and related products
Machinery except electrical
Electrical machinery
Transportation eouipment
Instruments and related products
Clay glass and lumber
Clay glass and stone products
Lumber and products
Furniture and miscellaneous
Furniture and fixtures
Miscellaneous
Nondurable goods:
Textiles apparel and leather
Textile mill products
Apparel products
Leather and products
Paper and printing
Paper and products
Printing and publishing
Chemicals and products
Minerals:
pnal
PrnHp nil anH natural OA^
3,100
9,647
2,610
8,324
3,102
9,712
2,615
8,393
3,110
9,778
2,621
8,483
r3,121
r9,821
2,629
r8,553
r3,129
r9,870
r2,662
r8,582
P3,137
p9,914
P 2,686
p8,642
Index: 1957-59=100
153.9
155.3
156.5
157.2
158.0
158.9
158.6
r!59.0
rl58.0
P155.9
142.4
161.4
146.5
162.9
148.0
161.8
148.6
162.1
148.7
161.4
145 !o
164.2
138J4
rl64.7
rl36.2
rl68.6
rl32! 7
rl66.7
P132
pl65
174.5
184.1
165.9
174.6
177.7
184.4
165.8
176.4
180 ! 3
186.0
167.1
176.5
184.7
189.1
166.0
177.0
186! 7
193.4
166.0
177.4
189!9
192.6
174.6
181.8
188.2
190.1
172.9
181.4
rl9o!4
r!88.3
rl71.5
r!84.6
r!9l!5
187.6
rl64.8
186.7 -
nil 9
139.5
122.7
141.0
122.9
138^5
119.9
140.5
111.3
137!8
111.3
rl36." 5
109.5
r!36!9
rI12.8
1-137'. o
130.7
pl!4.1
pi 86
p!85
P159
pi 84
p!27
p!37
(NA)
169.6
157.2
173.8
159.5
174.6
159.3
169.' 7
157.2
175.3
158.7
175L 2
157.2
173! 9
158.5
174.0
rl60.9
r!72.4
160.7
p!70
P158
143! 5
150.3
115.5
143.7
149.9
112.1
144.0
152.0
114.2
143.4
149.7
111.1
142.1
147.7
110.4
142.4
148.1
113.9
rl4l'.8
149.3
rllO.8
rH1.5
pl50.3
pllO.4
rl38.8
p!38.5
(NA)
(NA)
150.2
138.6
153 *.0
142.1
154.1
144.1
156.2
144.8
153*.i
145.3
153L3
144.1
153.7
144.7
r!52.6
r!43.7
187.7
127.7
186.9
191.4
127.4
184.3
192.7
127.7
184.1
194.5
126.9
188.7
194.4
128.5
190.3
196 .*9
131.2
199.2
rl99! 4
129.1
202.0
r!98.7
r!28.8
p202.7
127.8
115.8
126.1
117.9
127.1
122.7
128.1
116.5
129 '.2
119.9
127.5
116.9
129.7
pl!7.2
r!32.0
P119.3
p!52.8
r!45.7
r!87.4
p!99.8
p!28.5
(NA)
r!30.6
p!31.6
(NA)
P136.
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
P149
(NA)
P147
P186
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
pL30
(NA)
(NA)
85.3
117.0
116.9
119.1
120.7
119.3
120.8
119.2
120.7
119.6
121.5
119.5
114.0
rl!9.3
125.2
rl!8.9
120.7
120.6
139.7
130.9
133 '.6
127.5
134 '.2
133.3
134.0
133.7
132.1
133.8
129.4
130.3
133.0
133.4
r!34.8
r!39.3
p!38!Z
P137.7
pLl6
pL20
pL37
(NA)
(NA)
105.1
105.5
105.6
106.0
106.4
106.3
106.2
106.2
p!06.5
(NA)
108.2
98.6
102.2
102.1
109.1
98.9
102.4
101.9
107.0
98.8
102.5
102.2
105.5
99.0
102.9
102.2
105.1
99.1
102.8
102.5
105.1
99.7
103.1
102.5
103.9
100.3
103.2
102.8
103.7
100.5
103.5
102.9
r!03.7
rlOO.4
r!03.7102.8
104.2
100.5
103.7
103.2
D58. INDEX OF WHOLESALE PRICES,
ALL MANUFACTURING 2
(23 manufacturing industries)
All manufacturing industries
Durable goods:
Lumber and wood products
Furniture and other household durables
Nonmetallic mineral products
Iron and steel
NOTE: Data are not shown when held confidential by the source agency.
x
NA-Not available.
preliminary.
r = re vised.
Data are seasonally adjusted by the source agency.
^Series components are seasonally adjusted by the Bureau of the Census.
(SeeSeasonal and Related Statistical Adjustments,"
page 2.) All manufacturing industries index is not seasonally adjusted.
http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
fccc/
MARCH 1967
TABLE
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
SELECTED DIFFUSION INDEXES AND COMPONENTS—Continued
Directions of Change—Continued
6-month spans
1-month spans
1966
f
1
^
<?"
2E
D41. NUMBER OF EMPLOYEES (N
NONAGRICULTURALESTABLISHMENTS-Con.
Finance, insurance, real estate
Service and miscellaneous
Federal government
State and local government
D47. INDEX OF INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION
(24 industry components)
Percent rising1
All industrial production
Durable goods:
Primary and fabricated metals
Primary metal products
Fabricated metal products
Machinery and related products
Machinery except electrical
Electrical machinery
Transportation equipment
Instruments and related products
Clay glass and lumber
Clay, glass, and stone products
Lumber and products
Furniture and miscellaneous
Furniture and fixtures
Miscellaneous
Nondurable goods:
Textiles apparel, and leather
Textile mill products
Apparel products
Leather and products
Paper and printing
Paper and products
Printing and publishing
Chemicals petroleum and rubber
Chemicals and products
Petroleum products
Rubber and plastics products
Foods beverages and tobacco
Foods and beverages
Tobacco products
Minerals:
Coal
Crude oil and natural gas
Metal stone and earth minerals
Metal mining
Stone and earth minerals
0
3
&
1 I I
• j
Q
1 1
£
^
cio "S.
•<
c/3
HC)
Z
C=
CU
1967
1966
1967
Diffusion index title and components
J3
<D
>%
11
^
exo
—\
u_
I
0
-^
1 1 5 1"S
+
+
+
+
-
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
O
+
+
+
+
+
+
58 38
+
6
--
92
+
--
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
4-
-
O
+
4 - 4 - 4 - 4 -
4
0 4 -
+ ' 4 - 4 - 4 -
58
+
-
4
-
4
-
+
88 46 60 40
+ + + -
60 50
+ -
+
+
+
-
+
+
+
-
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
t+
o
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
-
+
+
-
+
-
+
-
+
+
+
-
+
4
-
-
4
-
-
+
-
-0
-
+
+
-
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
4-
+
88 71 75
+
+ +
62
+
65
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+ o
+ NA
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
--
+
+
+
+
8 1 ct « £
» ^ w
i3 S -=3 =3 =
+
+
+
+
4 - 4 - 4 - 4 -
+
+
+
+
*
+
-
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
4+
+
-
+
+
+ -NA
+ NA NA
+
-
+
+
+
+
+
+
--
+
+
-
+
O
-
+
+
+
+
--
74
+
78
+
52
+
+
+
-
- NA
+
o
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
-
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
4+
+
-
+
+
+
4-
-+
+
38
-
+
+
+
-
58
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
-+
NA
+ +
o
+
-+
NA
--NA
+
+ NANA
+
+
-
58 5 4
+ +
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
4-
+
--
+
+
+
+
-+
+
+
-
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+ + NANA
- NANA
N A
+
+
;;
-
+
-
+
+
-
+
-
+
-
-
-- - -
+
+
-
+
+
+
+
+
-
- NA
NA NA
NA NA
+
t-
-
- NA
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+ NA
+ NA
NA NA
+
4-
4-
+
+
--
+
+
-
+
+
+
+
+
+
+ NA
- NA
+
+
+
+
44 54 61 65 58 75
O - - O + N A
96
+
-
-
+
-
+
+
+
+
+
+
4-
4-
-
+
-
+ NA
NA NA
+
+
+
+
-
+
+
+
+
+ NA
+ NA
55 70
+ NA
+
D58. INDEX OF WHOLESALE PRICES,
ALL MANUFACTURING
(23 manufacturing industries)
Percent rising
All manufacturing industries
Durable goods:
Lumber and wood products
Furniture and other household durables
Nonmetallic mineral products
Iron and steel
72
+
••
89 9 6
+ +
+
- - -
+
- - -
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
-
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
o
4-
+
-
+
0
+
+
-
+
+
-
+
+
+
+
+
0
91 83
+
+
70
+
70
+
63
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
4-
+
+
+
+
4-
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+ = rising; o = unchanged; - = falling. NA=Not available.
•'•The percent rising is based on 24 industry components. Where actual data for separate industries are not available, estimates are used to compute the percent rising.
Directions of change for the most recent spans are computed "before figures for
the current month are rounded.
S3
TABLE
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
MARCH 1967
bed
SELECTED DIFFUSION INDEXES AND COMPONENTS—Continued
Basic Data—Continued
19 67
1966
1966
Diffusion index title and components
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Oct.
Jan.*1
Nov.
Dec.
120.0
104.7
113.2
112.0
107.8
100.6
101.7
118.1
120.4
104.9
113.1
112.3
108.3
101.4
101.7
119.0
121.9
104.7
113.5
112.6
108.6
102.0
101.6
2
106.2
122.7
104.9
113.1
113.0
108.7
101.8
101.6
2
107.1
111 0
110 3
102.4
104 9
86 9
105.4
2
2
Feb.
Index: 195 7-59 - 100
D58. INDEX OF WHOLESALE PRICES,
ALL MANUFACTURINGMontinued
Durable goods-Continued
Miscellaneous metal oroducts
Mi^rpll A>npnii^ mp>rhinprv»
Nondurable goods:
Processed foods
Tobacco products and bottled beverages
Cotton products
Wool products
Manmade fiber textile products
Apparel
Pulp, paper, and allied products
Chemicals and allied products
Petroleum products refined
Rubber and rubber products
Hides, skins, leather, and related products
p = preliminary.
1
122.5
103.5
110.7
108.6
105.7
122.4
103.8
111.0
109.3
105.9
123.3
104.1
111.4
109.9
106.0
123.6
104.3
111.6
110.3
106.2
99.2
120.6
104.2
112.6
110.8
106.2
99.2
119.9
104.6
112.7
111.7
107.4
98.5
98.5
98.7
100.3
113.0
101.0
117.3
100.5
117.7
100.6
120.9
100.5
121.8
101.7
118.6
111 8
109.6
102.2
106 2
111 8
109.5
102.8
106 4
110.6
109.8
103.1
106.5
111 0
109.9
103.4
107 0
113 7
109.9
103.8
106 8
111 7
109.9
103.4
105 7
99.5
90.5
89.7
89.8
89.8
88.4
105.0
105.1
104.8
104.8
104.8
105.1
110 1
110 0
102.9
105 1
87 8
105.4
102.2
102.7
103.0
103.5
103.5
103.0
103.0
97.4
98.6
95.4
97.6
98.1
99.6
95.7
98.2
97.9
98.0
101 9
101 2
99 5
95.4
97.6
99.6
95.9
121.2
122.7
122.7
122.2
98 3
89.8
101.6
95.4
120.8
111.8
(NA)
(NA)
102.2
104.4
101.4
104.5
87.2
87.2
105.8
106.1
103.0
103.0
103.1
98.3
102 0
94.4
94.6
94.9
98.3
99.0
95.3
118.0
117.3
117.3
118.5
98.4
95.7
119.0
r = revised.
Data are seasonally adjusted by the Bureau of the Census.
(See "Seasonal and Related Statistical Adjustments," page 2.)
2
Data for January and February 1967 are not comparable to the data for the earlier months.
http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/
54
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
112.0
Basic data for components of diffusion index D19, Index of stock
prices, 500 common stocks, and of diffusion index D5, Initial
claims for unemployment insurance, State programs, are not available from the Census Bureau.
1967
TABLE
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
SELECTED DIFFUSION INDEXES AND COMPONENTS— Continued
Directions of Change—Continued
6-month spans
1-month spans
1966
Diffusion index title and components
1966
1967
£ i f f t 3 l « 5 £
Q-
TO
"^
=
Z3
Q}
O
O
CD
(Q
_
+
1967
f l t f l g l M l
I s l f f l f f l t f
D58. INDEX OF WHOLESALE PRICES,
ALL MANUFACTURING-Continued
Durable goods-Continued
Nonferrous metals
Fabricated structural metal products
Miscellaneous metal products,
General purpose machinery and equipment
Miscellaneous machinery
Electrical machinery and equipment
Motor vehicles and equipment
Miscellaneous products
Nondurable goods:
Processed foods
Tobacco products and bottled beverages
Cotton products
Wool products
Manmade fiber textile products
Pulp paper and allied products
+
+
+
-
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
o
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+ NANA
+ NA
+ N A N A
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+ NA NA
+ NANA
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
~ t " ~ H
+
O
+
+
+
+
+
O
+
+
O
+
+•
+
+
—
+
+
+
—
+
—
_
- (
_
-
o
-
+
+
+
+
0
-
+
+
+
—
+
+
+
o
o
—
+
+
+
O
—
+
0
+
+
+
0
+
-
+
---
+
O
—
—
—
—
—
+
o
+
CD
D19. INDEX OF STOCK PRICES,
500 COMMON STOCKS1
(23 industry components)2
Percent rising 3
Index of 500 stock prices
Coal bituminous
Food composi te
Tobacco (cigarette manufacturers)
Texti le products
Paper
Publ ishing
Chemicals
-^
O
+
+
+
+
-
9-month spans
1966
1966
1967
•*-
•«-•
23
38
6
4
—
—
—
—
—
-
+
+
-
Oil composite
Building materials composite
Steel
Metal fabricating
Machinery composite
Office and business equipment
Electric household appliances
_ _
_
_
-_
_
--
+
_
+
_
+
_ _
_
_
--_
_
---
Electronics
Automobiles
Radio and television broadcasters
+
_ _
+
Electric companies
Natural gas distributors.
Retai 1 stores composite
Life insurance
-—
25
_
—
_
_
+
+
--+
—
+
_
-
_
_
—
-
+
_
_
_
88
60
91
92
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
—
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
_ _
+
+
_
+
+
+
_
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
52
"Q.
4A
*
38
l
>
>
22
-
1967
O
12
c
-
6
Q
10
+
—
^
-
i l > i
22
20
47
+
+
+
+
+
+
_
_
_
+
_
_
_
_
_
+
+
+
+
_
+
+
+
+
+
+
_
_
_
+
+
_
_
_
+
f
_
_
_
+
_
_
_
_
+
_
+
+
+
-
+
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
+
_
+
_
+
_
+
_
+
_
+
_
_
+
_
+
_
_
+
_
+
_
_
+
_
+
_
+
_
+
_
+
+
_
+
+
+
_
_
_
+
+
+
+
+
_
+
+
—
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
_
+
_
_
+
_
+
_
_
_
_
+
+
_
+
_
_
_
_
_
-
-
+
+
+
+
_
+
+
+
+
_
-
-
+
_
+
0
GO
4
0-
+
--
+
+
1-month spans
txo
+
+
0 —
+NA
OOO
-
+
+
+
—
+
+
+
_
_
_
--_
-
-
,
-
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
+
0
_
+
+
+ = rising; o = unchanged;- = falling.
•'•Data are not seasonally adjusted.
The 23 components shown here include 18 of the more important industries and 5 composites
the industries used in computing the diffusion index in table 4.
3
Based on 77 components.
2
representing an additional 23 of
55
TABLE
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
MARCH 1967
bed
SELECTED DIFFUSION INDEXES AND COMPONENTS—Continued
Directions of Change—Continued
9-month spans
1-month spans
1966
1967
1967
1966
Diffusion index title and components
8-
D5. INITIAL CLAIMS FOR UNEMPLOYMENT
INSURANCE, STATE PROGRAMS1
(26 area components)
Percent rising
47 labor market areas.
Northeast region:
Boston (7)
Buffalo (19)
Newark (11)
New York (1)
Paterson (20)
Philadelphia (4)
Pittsburgh (9)
Providence (25)
North Central region:
Chicago (2)
Cincinnati (21)
Cleveland (10)
Columbus (26)
Detroit (5)
Indianapolis (23)
Kansas City (18)
Milwaukee (15)
Minneapolis (13)
St. Louis (8)
South region:
Atlanta (17)
Baltimore (12)
Dallas (16)
Houston (14)
West region:
Los Angeles (3)
Portland (24)
San Francisco (6)
Seattle (22)
46
57 17
72
81
47
28
55
17
92
74 45
68
77
79
81 34 34
23
- = rising; o = unchanged; + = falling. The signs are reversed because this series usually rises when general business activity falls and falls when business rises.
Data used are tor the week including the 12th of the month.
•"•Series components are seasonally adjusted by the Bureau of the Census "before the direction of change is determined. (See
"Seasonal and Related Statistical Adjustments/' page 2.) The percent rising is based on 47 labor market areas. Directions of
change are shown separately for only the 26 largest areas. The number in parentheses indicates the size rank for each labor
market area.
http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/
Federal Reserve 56
Bank of St. Louis
Section THREE
charts and tables
REFERENCE CYCLES
Current expansion compared wifh expansions in
earlier business cycles
PERCENT CHANGES FOR CURRENT AND EARLIER
EXPANSIONS
Percent of reference peak levels
Percent change from reference trough levels
S7
CHART
MARCH 1967
CYCLICAL COMPARISONS
bed
COMPARISONS OF REFERENCE CYCLES
PERIOD COVERED
Nov. 1948 to Aug. 1954 (Reference trough: Oct. 1949)
July 1953 to Apr. 1958 (Reference trough:
Aug. 1954)
July 1957 to Feb. 1961 (Reference trough:
Apr. 1958)
Reference trough dates
—— May 1960 to present (Reference trough: Feb. 1961)
Reference trough dates
23. Industrial
materials prices
17. Ratio, price to
unit labor cost, mfg.
24. New orders, mach
and equip, indus.
19. Stock prices, 500
common stocks
-12 -6
0 +6 -1-12 +18 -h24 +30 +36+42 +48 +54 460 +66472
Months from reference troughs
-12 -6
I
+6 +12 +11 +24 +3fl +36 +42 +48 +54 +60 +66472
Months from reference troughs
Table 2 shows latest month in current (1961) expansion. Changes for this month and comparable months of previous expansions are shown in table 6. Various scales are used. Scale L-1 is a logarithmic scale with 1 cycle
in a given distance; scale L-2 is a logarithmic scale with 2 cycles in that distance, etc.
*Reference peak level. ^T Point at which this expansion reached a new reference peak.
http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/
58 of St. Louis
Federal Reserve Bank
OPoint at which a new reference trough was reached.
bed
MARCH 7967
CYCLICAL COMPARISONS
CHART
COMPARISONS OF REFERENCE CYCLES—Continued
I M11111II111
PERIOD COVERED
Nov. 1948 to Aug. 1954 (Reference trough: Oct. 1949)
- Reference trough dates
July 1953 to Apr. 1958 (Reference trough: Aug. 1954)
July 1957 to Feb. 1961 (Reference trough: Apr. 1958)
—
May 1960 to present (Reference trough:
Feb. 1961)
Percent
43.
Unemployment rate, total
(percent unemployed, inverted)1
11. Employees in nonagri
establishments
Percent
115
55. Wholesale prices exc.
farm prod, and foods
95
-12-6
0
+6 +12 +18 +24 +30 +36 +42 +48 +54 +60 +66+72
Months from reference troughs
-12-6
0 +6 +12+18 +24 +30 +36 +42 +48 +54 +60+66+72
Months from reference troughs
Table 2 shows latest month in current (1961) expansion. Changes for this month and comparable months of previous expansions are shown in table 6. Various scales are used. Scale L-l is a logarithmic scale with 1 cycle
in a given distance; scale L-2 is a logarithmic scale with 2 cycles in that distance, etc^Lines represent actual data rather than percentages of reference peak levels.
*Reference peak level.
-^Point at which this expansion reached a new reference peak.
O Point at which a new reference trough was reached.
59
CHART
MARCH 1967
CYCLICAL COMPARISONS
bcc
COMPARISONS OF REFERENCE CYCLES—Continued
Perc
PERIOD COVERED
4th Q. 1948 to 3rd Q. 1954 (Reference trough: 4th Q. 1949)
Reference trough dates
2nd Q. 1953 to 2nd Q. 1958 (Reference trough: 3rd Q. 1954)
-
3rd Q. 1957 to 1st Q. 1961 (Reference trough: 2nd Q. 1958)
.
2nd Q. 1960 to present (Reference trough: 1st Q. 1961)
|M,M|,,,M|.MM
22
201
Percent
61. Business expenditures,
new plant and equipment
—Reference trough dates
18C
160
140
120
100
140
135
130
67.
Bank rates on
125
short-term business loans
120
115
110
105
100*
95
90
l l l l l H i l l I l l l l l l M i l II I
-12 -6
0
+6 +12 4-18 +24 +30 +-36 +42 +48 +-54 +60 +66-+-72
Months from reference troughs
-12
-6
0
+6 +12 +18 +24 +30 +36 +42 +48 +54 +60+66+72
Months from reference troughs
Table 2 shows latest quarter in current (1961) expansion. Changes for this quarter and comparable quarters of previous expansions are shown in table 6. Various scales are used. Scale L-l is a logarithmic scale with 1 cycle
in a given distance; scale L-2 is a logarithmic scale with 2 cycles in that distance, etc. O Latest data anticipated.
*Reference peak level. ^ Point at which this expansion reached a new reference peak. O Point at which a new reference trough was reached.
60
bed
MARCH 1967
CYCLICAL COMPARISONS
CHART
COMPARISONS OF REFERENCE CYCLES—Continued
'I
PERIOD COVERED
Nov. 1948 to Aug. 1954 (Reference trough:
Oct. 1949)
July 1953 to Apr. 1958 (Reference trough:
Aug. 1954)
I
I
|'""|' MI T
— Reference trough dates
95. Surplus or deficit, National income and product acct.,
July 1957 to Feb. 1961 (Reference trough: Apr. 1958)
.
I
+ 20
acct. (ann. rate, bil. dol.)1
May 1960 to present (Reference trough: Feb. 1961)
I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I MI I I I MMI I MI I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I IJII
Percent
+ 15
Reference trough dates
+ 10
62.
Labor cost
per unit of output, mfg
+5
-5
-10
+12
98.
Change in money supply and time deposits
(ann. rate, percent. 6-term moving avg.)1
+ 10
64.
+8
Book value of mfrs'.
inventories
+6
+4
+2
-2
J
-12-6
90
0 +6 +12 -t-18 +24 +30 +36 +42 +48 +54 +60 +66 +72
Months from reference troughs
-12-6
0 +6 +12+18 +24 +30 +36 +42 +48 +54 +60+66 +72
Months from reference troughs
Table 2 shows latest month in current (1961) expansion. Changes for this month and comparable months of previous expansions are shown in table 6. Various scales are used. Scale L-l is a logarithmic scale with 1 cycle
in a given distance; scale L-2 is a logarithmic scale with 2 cycles in that distance, etc. z Lines represent actual data rather than percentages of reference peak levels.
*Reference peak level. ^ Point at which this expansion reached a new reference peak.
O Point at which a new reference trough was reached.
61
TABLE
CYCLICAL COMPARISONS
MARCH
PBB|
COMPARISONS FROM REFERENCE PEAK LEVELS AND REFERENCE TROUGH DATES
Percent of reference peak prior to reference expansion beginning in-
Month
after
reference
troughI
Feb.
1961l
Apr.
1958
Aug.
1954
Oct.
1949
June
1938 x
(i)
(2)
(3)
(4)
(5)
(6)
71st
71st
101.1
118.9
169.0
100.3
103.6
U5.6
110.5
102.3
102.8
122.2
153.4
113.1
164.0
72d
98.3
80.1
79.6
110.6
7 Private nonfarm housing starts
9. Construction contracts, 2commercial and
industrial floor space
13 New business incorporations
14. Liabilities of business failures (inverted)
72d
85.8
107.1
88.2
71st
71st
124.5
108.7
110.0
130.0
72d
81.4
63.6
16 Corporate profits after taxes (Q),
17. Ratio, price to unit labor cost, manufacturing . .
19 Stock prices 500 common stocks
23 Industrial materials prices
24. New orders, machinery and equipment industries
29 New building permits private housing
69th
173.4
102.3
158.2
101.1
147.9
106.9
Selected series
NBER LEADING INDICATORS
1. Average workweek of production workers,
72d
71st
72d
72d
72d
72d
81.2
98.7
80.8
113.8
100.3
113.9
108.5
120.3
102.7
Mar.
1933
Nov.
1927
July
1924
July
1921
(7)
(8)
(9)
(10)
100.8
338.9
330.3
74.2
51.3
80.0
74.2
91.3
97.6
39.3
49.2
109.1
147.4
112.0
30.7
58.3
70.6
131.4
161.2
127.3
137.8
77.0
135.9
121.1
56.2
55.7
(NA)
51.1
63.3
113.5
112.0
567.5
93.7
111.2
98.7
116.1
42.8
77.6
17.7
119.3
100.5
199.7
107.8
129.7
85.7
98.2
97.9
63.2
(NA)
54.0
98.2
(NA)
(NA)
128.3
101.9
(NA)
150.2
83.7
(NA)
(NA)
104.0
90.7
(NA)
116.7
113.7
96.6
(NA)
106.9
112.1
65.0
158.9
79.1
148.6
116.1
227.9
(NA)
78.0
113.0
(NA)
(NA)
90.2
104.9
(NA)
231.2
96.6
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
87.6
33.3
(NA)
98.2
67.4
(NA)
(NA)
NBER ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
41. Employees in nonagricultural establishments . . .
43. Unemployment rate (percent), total (inverted)3. .
47 Industrial production
49 GNP in current dollars (Q)
72d
72d
72d
69th
+1.4
-0.9
141.9
150.4
50 GNP in 1958 dollars (Q)
51 Bank debits all SMSA's except NY.
52 Personal income
54 Sales of retail stores
55. Wholesale prices except farm products and
69th
72d
72d
72d
111.8
130.5
(NA)
192.0
221.2
95.9
106.4
-11.2
106.3
(NA)
(NA)
102.3
202.0
218.7
154.2
67.7
86.7
96.8
115.2
138.5
113.2
102.7
112.0
114.0
110.7
107.8
108.9
114.1
94.5
92.0
92.6
70.1
134.3
134.3
126.2
126.2
(NA)
(NA)
81.1
81.1
118.6
118.6
103.4
103.4
63.8
63.8
103.3
103.8
124.1
110.8
109.0
117.8
150.1
129.5
110.2
155.2
257.0
141.3
149.1
147.9
51.0
(NA)
88.3
104.7
126.9
90.9
(NA)
(NA)
78.9
(NA)
(NA)
53.9
121.8
93.0
(NA)
(NA)
91.1
-9.2
+3.0
-2.18
+8.8
-0.18
-9.6
+4.38
+3.52
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
107.5
113.1
105.1
-1.6
108.8
121.4
137.3
139.3
134.2
183.1
151.8
137.2
107.6
117.3
113.5
108.7
109.3
131.5
122.1
119.3
126.7
143.3
134.8
125.0
72d
104.7
101.9
109.5
69th
75th
173.0
171.5
96.2
96.2
62. Labor cost per unit of output, manufacturing . . . 72d
71st
64 Book value of manufacturers' inventories
71st
66 Consumer installment debt
67. Bank rates on short-term business loans (Q) . . . 69th
103.7
145.3
181.4
117.9
+1.2
87.6
112.3
(NA)
(NA)
97.2
(NA)
109.7
NBER LAGGING INDICATORS
61. Business expenditures, new plant and
equipment (Q):
a Actua 1
b Anticipated^
89.9
OTHER SELECTED U.S. SERIES
95. Surplusordeficit,Nat'l.incomeandprod.accL(Q)3
98. Change in money supply and time deposits 3 5. .
69th
70th
NOTE: The percent measures in this table are computed over two kinds of time periods: (1) Measures in column 2 (current expansion) and column 6 (World War II expansion) span a period from the preceding reference peak to a certain number of months (indicatedin column 1) after the reference trough; and (2) the percentages in all other
columns measure the reference peak level of the expansion indicated in the boxhead against the peak level of the preceding expansion. The duration of each expansion is
shown in the second column of appendix A (e.g., the April 1958 expansion lasted 25 months-from April 1958 to May 1960).
.
percent
For monthly series with a "months for cyclical dominance" (MCD) of "1" of "2" (series 19, 23, 41, 47, 52, 55, 62, 64, and 66) and for all quarterly series, the pei
base is the single value for the preceding reference peak month or quarter. For monthly series with an MCD of "3" or more (series 1, 2, 3, 6, 7, 9, 13,14, 17, 24, 2V, bl,
— 'monthly values centered on the reference peak month is used as the base. See MCD footnote to appendix C. See appendixA for the reference peak
dates.
NA
= Not available.
u A.
+.
1
Based on period from February 1961 (current trough) to latest month for which data are available. Measures for shorter time
spans can be found in earlier issues of BUSINESS CYCLE DEVELOPMENTS.
Except for 1961, changes are computed in a 3 -term mov3
ing average of the seasonally adjusted series.
Measures are differences from the reference peak levels.
Anticipated
expenditures (2nd quarter 1967) are used for computing the entry shown for the current expansion only. Actual expenditures are
5
used for all other entries.
Changes are computed in a 6-term moving average of the seasonally adjusted series.
http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/
62
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
i967
CYCLICAL COMPARISONS
H
COMPARISONS FROM REFERENCE TROUGH LEVELS AND REFERENCE TROUGH DATES
Selected series
Month
after
reference
trough x
(i)
Percent change from reference trough of expansion beginning inFeb.
1961 !
(2)
Apr.
1958
Aug.
1954
Oct.
1949
(3)
(4)
(5)
June
1938l
(6)
Mar.
1933
Nov.
1927
July
1924
July
1921
(7)
(8)
(9)
do)
NBER LEADING INDICATORS
1. Average workweek of production workers,
72d
71st
71st
72d
+2.6
+10.0
+97.6
+ 55.6
+3.4
+15.2
+40.6
+25.3
+0.8
+10.4
+18.5
+23.4
+3.1
+15.7
+82.2
+77.1
+28.9
+83.6
(NA)
(NA)
+7.1
+25.4
+116.7
+286.2
+2.9
+23.4
+47.9
-8.6
+6.1
+82.9
+58.7
-2.6
+9.4
+662.4
+955.6
+108.9
7 Private nonfarm housing starts
9. Construction contracts, commercial and
industrial floor space2
13 New business incorporations
14. Liabilities of business failures (inverted)
72d
-H.2
+10.4
-24.6
-20.0
-67.3
+286.3
-32.2
+32.7
+64.6
71st
71st
72d
+33.7
+17.0
-16.8
+39.9
+36.2
-15.5
+31.4
+16.7
-19.2
+57.5
+15.9
-44.6
+13.9
-35.3
(NA)
+327.0
-20.1
+587.6
+30.9
+7.9
+1.8
+60.1
+33.3
+28.8
+57.2
+7.3
+4.9
16 Corporate profits after taxes (0)
17. Ratio, price to unit labor cost, manufacturing. .
19 Stock prices 500 common stocks
69th
71st
72d
72d
72d
72d
+97.5
+4.0
+40.5
+ 5.9
+ 56.0
-16.7
+37.6
+5.0
+30.4
+15.4
+29.0
+6.6
+24.4
+2.2
+57.9
+7.8
+39.2
-28.3
+20.4
+0.1
+52.9
+5.2
+69.5
-27.5
(NA)
(NA)
+24.1
+66.9
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
+160.8
+136.4
(NA)
(NA)
+74.4
(NA)
+76.4
-0.9
(NA)
(NA)
+ 89.3
(NA)
+44.2
-0.2
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
+32.8
+61.1
(NA)
(NA)
41. Employees in nonagricultural establishments . .
43. Unemployment rate (percent), total (inverted) 3 .
47 Industrial production
49. GNP in current dollars (Q)
72d
72d
72d
69th
+22.6
+3.2
+50.5
+50.8
+6.9
+2.3
+25.2
+15.1
+8.9
+1.8
+19.7
+22.4
+17.8
+5.3
+50.0
+44.1
+45.7
(NA)
+181.0
+151.2
+40.2
+14.2
+120.3
+73.9
+10.8
(NA)
+24.0
+13.3
+11.2
(NA)
+30.2
+14.7
+31.6
(NA)
+64.4
+25.2
50 GNP in 1958 dollars (Q)
51 Bank debits all SMSA's except N Y
52. Personal income
54. Sales of retail stores
55. Wholesale prices except farm products and
foods
69th
72d
72d
72d
+36.2
+78.8
+50.4
+41.0
+11.4
+21.0
+13.3
+11.4
+11.8
+29.4
+22.1
+19.8
+28.8
+49.2
+41.4
+25.6
(NA)
+141.9
+145.6
+86.4
+42.1
+77.5
+76.3
+71.4
+12.6
+27.4
+12.2
+2.7
+12.4
+17.6
+10.6
+9.9
+25.2
+25.4
+29.5
+14.6
72d
+4.7
+2.1
+10.0
+14.8
+21.2
+31.3
-1.7
+2.1
+8.3
(NA)
(NA)
+372.6
+372.6
+35.0
+35.0
+48.2
+48.2
+86.0
+86.0
+20.5
+76.7
+165.4
-30.8
-7.7
(NA)
(NA)
+26.6
-9.6
(NA)
(NA)
+3.9
-12.3
(NA)
(NA)
-16.6
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
2 Accession rate manufacturing
3 Layoff rate manufacturing (inverted)
6 New orders durable goods industries
24. New orders, machinery and equipment industries
NBER ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
NBER LAGGING INDICATORS
61. Business expenditures, new plant and
equipment (Q):
a. Actual
b. Anticipated^
69th
75th
+85.5
+ 83.9
+19.7
+19.7
+40.6
+40.6
+ 57.8
+57.8
62.
64.
66.
67.
72d
71st
71st
69th
+1.9
+46.9
+75.4
+27.0
-4.4
+7.7
+23.1
+28.3
+6.0
+26.0
+45.2
+35.7
+14.1
+66.3
+105.3
+40.8
+43.6
+56.2
-45.3
(NA)
69th
70th
+1.3
-1.12
+18.0
-8.24
+7.6
-3.18
-2.3
+2.70
(NA)
(NA)
Labor cost per unit of output, manufacturing. . .
Book value of manufacturers' inventories
Consumer installment debt
Bank rates on short-term business loans (Q). . .
OTHER SELECTED U.S. SERIES
3
95. Surplusordeficit.Nat'l. income and prod.acct.(Q)
98. Change in money supply and time deposits3 . .
(NA)
(NA)
NOTE: The percent changes in this table arecomputed over two kinds of time periods: (1) Percent changes in column 2 (current expansion) and column 6 (World War II
expansion) span a period from the reference trough to a certain number of months (indicated in column 1) after the reference trough; and (2) the measures in all other columns
measure the change from the reference trough level indicated in the boxhead to the following reference peak level. The duration of each expansion is shown in the second
column of appendix A (e.g., the April 1958 expansion lasted 25 months-from April 1958 to May 1960).
For monthly series with a "months for cyclical dominance* (MCD) of "1" or "2" (series 19, 23, 41, 47, 52, 55, 62, 64, and 66) and for all quarterly series, the percent
base is the single value for the preceding reference trough month or quarter. For monthly series with an MCD of T or more (series 1, 2, 3, 6, 7, 9, 13, 14, 17, 24, 29, 51,
and 54), the average of three monthly values centered on the reference trough month is used as the base. See MCD footnote to appendix C. See appendix A for the reference
peak dates.
NA-Not available.
on period from February 1961 (current trough) to latest month for -which data are available. Measures for shorter time
spans can be found in earlier issues of BUSINESS CYCLE DEVELOPMENTS.
Except for 1961, changes are computed in a 3-term mov3
ing average of the seasonally adjusted series.
Measures are differences from the reference trough levels.
^Anticipated
expenditures (2nd quarter 1967) are used for computing the entry shown for the current expansion only. Actual expenditures are
5
used for all other entries .
Changes are computed in a 6-term moving average of the seasonally adjusted series .
63
Appendix A.-BUSINESS CYCLE EXPANSIONS AND CONTRACTIONS IN THE UNITED STATES: 1854 TO 1961
Duration in months
Contraction
(trough from
previous
peak)
Trough
Cycle
Expans ion
(trough to
peak)
Trough from
previous
trough
Peak from
previous
peak
Peak
(X)
18
8
32
18
65
30
22
46
18
34
36
(X)
48
30
78
36
99
(X)
40
54
50
52
101
March 1887
July 1890
January 1893
December 1895
June 1899
September 1902
38
13
10
17
18
18
22
27
20
18
24
21
74
35
37
37
36
42
60
40
30
35
42
39
August 1904
June 1908
January 1912
December 1914
March 1919
July 1921
May 1907
January 1910
January 1913
August 1918
January 1920
May 1923
23
13
24
23
7
18
33
19
12
44
10
22
44
46
43
35
51
"28
56
32
36
67
17
40
July 1924
November 1927
March 1933
June 1938
October 1945
October 1949
October 1926
August 1929
May 1937
February 1945
November 1948
July 1953
14
13
43
13
8
11
27
21
50
80
37
45
36
40
64
63
88
48
41
34
93
93
45
56
August 1954
April 1958
February 1961
July 1957
May 1960
13
9
9
35
25
(X)
58
44
34
48
34
(X)
Average, all cycles:
26 cycles, 1854-1961
10 cycles, 1919-1961
4 cycles, 1945-1961
19
15
10
30
35
36
49
50
46
X
49
2
54
3
Average, peacetime cycles:
22 cycles, 1854-1961
8 cycles, 1919-1961
3 cycles, 1945-1961
20
16
10
26
28
32
45
45
42
December 1854
December 1858
June 1861
December 1867
December 1870
March 1879
June 1857
October 1860
April 1865
June 1869.
October 1873
March 1882 ... .
May 1885
April 1888
May 1891
June 1894
June 1897
December 1900
46
4
46
48
42
5
6
NOTE: Underscored figures are the wartime expansions (Civil War, World Wars I and II, and Korean
War), the postwar contractions, and the full cycles that include the wartime expansions.
X
3
5
25 cycles, 1857-1960.
4 cycles, 1945-1960.
7 cycles, 1920-1960.
2
P
6
9 cycles, 1920-1960.
21 cycles, 1857-1960.
3 cycles, 1945-1960.
Source:
National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
Appendix B.-SPECIFIC TROUGH AND PEAK DATES FOR SELECTED BUSINESS INDICATORS
Specific trough dates for reference expansions beginning in —
Selected series
Apr.
1958
Feb.
1961
Aug.
1954
Oct.
1949
June
1938
Mar.
1933
Nov.
1927
July
1924
July
1921
NBER LEADING INDICATORS
1. Average workweek, production workers, mfg... Dec.
9. Construction contracts, commercial and
•inchiptr"! ^D. ......................... ...t.r^ May
Jan.
13. New business incorporations
17. Ratio, price to unit labor cost, mfg........ Jan.
Oct.
19. Stock prices, 500 common stocks . . »
Dec.
23 Industrial materials prices
24. New orders, machinery and equipment indus... Nov.
29 New building permits, private howi^ng. ...... Dec.
'60 Apr. '58 Apr. «54 Apr. »49 Jan. '38 June '32 Apr. '28 July '24 Feb. '21
'61
»61
'61
'60
»60
'60
'60
June
Nov.
Mar.
Dec.
Apr.
Feb.
Feb.
(NSC) Aug.
'58
(NSC) Feb.
'57
'58 Mar. '54 •May
'57 Sep. »53 June
'58 Feb. «54 June
'58 Mar. «54 Apr.
'58 Sep. '53 Jan.
*49 Sep. '38 Oct. '32 Sep. '27 July '24 Mar. '21
'49 Sep. '39 Dec. «34 Dec. '26 June '24 Jan. '21
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
'49!
(NSC) Oct. '23 Aug. '21
'49 Apr. »38 June '32
'49 June '38 July '32 Aug. '28 June '24 July '21
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
«49
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
«49i
NBER ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
41. Employees in nonagricultural establishments.
43 Unemployment rate total (inverted)
47. Industrial production.
49 GNP in current dollars (Q)
50. GNP in 1958 dollars (Q)
5? . Personal income .............................
53. Labor income in mining, mfg., construction..
54. Sales of retail Pt^res ......................
Feb. '61 May
May '61 July
Feb. '61 Apr.
4thQ '60 IstQ
IstQ '61 IstQ
(NSC) Feb.
Dec. '60 May
Apr. '61 Mar.
'58 Aug.
'58 Sep.
«58 Apr.
'58 2ndQ
'58 2ndQ
'58 Apr.
'58 Sep.
'58 Jan.
'54 Oct. '49 June
'54 Oct. '49 June
»54 Oct. '49 May
»54 4thQ '49 2ndQ
'54 2ndQ »49 IstQ
'54 July '49 May
'54 Oct. '49 June
(NSC) May
'54
'38 Mar.
«38 May
'38 July
'38 IstQ
'38 3rdQ
'38 Mar.
'38 Mar.
»38 Mar.
'33 Jan. '28 July '24 July '21
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
'33
«32 Nov. '27 July '24 Apr. '21
(NSC) 4thQ '21
(NSC)
'33
(NA)
(NSC)
(NSC)
'32
'33 4thQ '26 2ndQ '24 2ndQ '21
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
'33
(NSC) Mar. '22
(NSC)
'33
IstQ
July
May
3rdQ
'33 4thQ '27 3rdQ '24 4thQ '21
(NSC) Apr. '22
(NSC)
'33
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
'33
'31 4thQ '27 4thQ '24 3rdQ '22
NEER LAGGING INDICATORS
61.
62.
64.
67.
Business expenditures, new plant and equip.. 2ndQ
Labor cost per unit of output,
manufacturing. Sep.
Book value of manufacturers1 inventories.... June
Bank rates on short-term business loans (Q). 4thQ
'61 3rdQ
'61 (June
»61 Aug.
'61 2ndQ
'58
'59
'58
'58
IstQ
Sep.
Sep.
IstQ
'55 4thQ
'55 July
»54 Jan.
'55 IstQ
'49
'50
'50
'50
3rdQ
June
June
2ndQ
'38
'40
'39
'40
Specific peak dates for reference contractions beginning in —
Selected series
May
1960
July
1957
July
1953
Nov.
1948
May
1937
Aug.
1929
Oct.
1926
May
1923
Jan.
1920
NBER LEADING INDICATORS
1. Average workweek, production workers, mfg... Jjune
9. Construction contracts, commercial and
June
industrial.
Apr.
June
17 Ratio, price to unit labor cost, mfg
July
19 Stock prices 500 common stocks
2^ Industrial materials pr~i oes ................ Nov.
24. New orders, machinery and equipment indus... July
29. New huild'UTg permit Sj private housing........ Nov.
»59 Nov. »55 Mar. '53
'60 Mar.
'59 Feb.
'59 Oct.
'59 July
'59 Dec.
'59 Nov.
»58 Feb.
'56
'56
'55
'56
'55
'56
«55
(NSC) Dec. »36 Oct. '29 Nov. '25 Nov. '22
(NSC) Mar.
(NSC) July
Jan. »51 :June
Jan. '53 June
Feb. '51 Jan.
Feb. '51 Apr.
;july '50 Oct.
(NA)
'46 July «37 Jan. '29 Sep. '25 Aug. '22 Dec. '19
'46 Dec. '36 Jan. '29 Oct. '25 Apr. '23 Dec. '19
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
'48;
(NSC) Mar. »23 July '19
'48 Feb. '37 Sep. '29
«48 Mar. »37 Mar. '29 Nov. '25 Mar. '23 Apr. '20
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
'48
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
'47
(NA)
NBER ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
Sep. '48 July
Jan. »48 July
July '48 May
4thQ '48 3rdQ
4thQ »48 3rdQ
Oct. '48 June
Aug. '48 May
(NSC) Sep.
Mar.
Mar.
Feb.
3rdQ
3rdQ
Aug.
Aug.
Aug.
»57 June
'57 June
'57 July
'57 2ndQ
'57 2ndQ
'57 Oct.
'57 July
'57 Mar.
'53
'53
'53
'53
'53
'53
'53
'53
'60 3rdQ
'61 Mar.
'60 Sep.
'59 4thQ
'57 3rdQ
'58 Mar.
'57 Sep.
'57 4thQ
'53 4thQ
'54 -•Nov.
'53 Jan.
'53 2ndQ
41. Employees in nonagricultural establishments .Apr. '60
Feb. '60
431 ^employment rate, total (inverted )
47. Industrial production. ...................... Jan. »60
2ndQ '60
49. GNP in current dollars (Q)
IstQ '60
50 GNP in 1958 dollars (Q)
*>? . Personal "income ............................r (NSC)
53. Labor income in mining, mfg., construction.. May '60
Apr. '60
54. Sales of retail stores
'37 Aug. '29 Jan. »26 June '23 Jan. '20
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
'37
'37 July »29 Mar. '27 May '23 Feb. »20
(NA)
(NSC)
(NSC)
'37 3rdQ '29
(NA)
(NSC)
(NSC)
'37 3rdQ '29
(NA)
'37 Aug. '29 2ndQ '26 IstQ '24
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
«37 Sep. »29
(NSC) July '20
(NSC)
'37 Sep. '29
NBER LAGGING INDICATORS
61. Business expenditures, new plant and equip.. 2ndQ
62. Labor cost per unit of output,
manufacturing .•Jan.
Sep.
64. Book value of manufacturers1 inventories
67. Bank rates on short-term business loans (Q). 4thQ
'48 3rdQ
'48 Dec.
'49 Oct.
'49 3rdQ
'37 2ndQ '29 4thQ '26 2ndQ '23 2ndQ '20
(NSC) Oct. '23 Nov. '20
(NSC)
»37
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
'37 Jan. '30
'32 3rdQ '29 4thQ '26 3rdQ '23 4thQ '20
NOTE: Specific trough and peak dates are the actual dates when individual series reached a trough or peak as distinguished
from reference dates which are those dates designated as the trough or peak of business activity as a whole. This table shows,
for selected indicators, the specific dates corresponding to reference dates in 9 recent business cycles.
NA Not available.
NSC No specific cycle corresponding to reference date.
http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/
Federal Reserve66
Bank of St. Louis
Appendix C.-AVERAGE CHANGES AND RELATED MEASURES FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES
Part 1.—Average Percentage Changes
i/c
Monthly series
Period
covered
CI
I
C
i/c
MCD
for
MCD
span
Average duration of run
(ADR)
CI
I
C
MCD
NBER LEADING INDICATORS
1.
2.
30.
3.
4.
5.
Avg. workweek, prod. workers/ mfg...... Jan. ' 53- June ' 66 .47
.41
Accession rate, manufacturing
Jan. '53- June '66 4.62
4.38
Nonagri. 'placements, all industries... Jan.'53-Sep.!65 1.83
1.34
Layoff rate, manufacturing
Jan.1 53- June '66' 8.75
7.96
Temporary layoff, all industries
Jan, '53-Sep>'65 17.13 16.59
Average weekly initial claims, State
unemployment insurance
Jan. '53-Sep. '65 4.95
4.38
6. New orders, durable goods industries. .Jan. '53-Sep. '65 3.76
3.33
.18
1.44
1.09
3.23
3.64
2.30
3.04
1.23
2.47
4.55
3
4
2
3
5
.76
.79
.63
.76
.96
2.21
2.21
2.11
2.27
1.57
1.40
1.50
1.52
1.53
1.42
10.73
11.50
7.24
10.73
6.61
4.18
3.76
3.97
4.82
2.69
2.17
1.51
2.02
2.20
2
3
.95
.66
1.69
1.81
1.42
1.58
12.67
8.44
3.97
4.41
24. New orders, mach. and equip. Indus.... Jan. '53-Sep. '65 4.18
3.81
9. Construction contracts, commercial
and industrial
Jan. '53-Sep. '65 9.30
9.17
10. Contracts and orders, plant and equip. Jan. '53-Sep. '65 4.69
4.39
7. Private nonf arm housing starts
May ' 59-Sep ' 657.16
7.08
29. New building permits, private housing. Jan. '53- June '66 3.70
3.31
38. Index of net business formation
Jan. '53-Sep. '65
.79
.60
13. New business incorporations
(Jan. '53-Sep. '65 2.49
2.18
14. Liabilities of business failures
Jan. '53-Sep. '65 18.74 18.24
15 . Large busine ss failures
Jan. ' 53-Sep. '6512.31 12.12
1.52
2.51
3
. oo
rtrt
1.83
1.60
10.86
3.41
.97 9.41
1.43
3.08
.89 7.91
2.54
1.30
.53 1.15
2.18
1.00
1.70 10.72
7.84
1.54
6
4
6
3
2
3
6
6
.84
C1)
.82
.66
.78
C1)
C1)
1.60
1.88
1.38
1.87
2.71
1.92
1.49
1.55
1.48 12.67
9.50
1.71
1.38 15.20
1.55 12.38
1.63
6.61
7.24
1.63
1.39
8.94
1.46 11.69
3.00
3.39
2.63
3.06
4.08
3.19
2.23
2.58
17. Ratio, price to unit labor cost, mfg.. Jan. '53-Oct.'66
19. Stock prices, 500 common stocks
Jan. ' 53-Sep. '65
37. Purchased materials, percent reporting
higher inventories
Jan. '53-Sep. '65
26. Buying policy production materials;
commitments 60 days or longer
Jan. '53-Sep. '65
32. Vendor performance, percent reporting
slower deliveries
Jan.' '53-Sep. '65
23. Industrial materials prices
Jan. '53-Sep. '65
(!)
.62
2.49
.51
1.68
.27
1.64
1.93
1.02
3
2
.92
.57
2.62
2.37
1.70
1.58
5.69
9.50
4.18
3.97
6.46
5.24
2.84
1.85
3
.76
2.37
1.62
7.60
3.57
5.27
4.77
1.98
2.41
3
.77
1.88
1.63
8.94
3.49
7.47
1.31
5.79
1.04
4.00
.73
1.45
1.41
2
2
.95
.99
3.17
2.49
1.85
2.11
8.94
11.69
3.77
3.87
.31
.35
3.94
5.07
.14
.29
3.05
4.38
.27
.21
2.16
2.55
.52
1.42
1.41
1.72
1
2
2
2
.52
.75
.72
.92
5.19
2.09
2.53
3.37
1.50 17.89
1.55 27.83
1.44
7.95
1.48
8.53
5.19
4.05
4.05
4.11
4.19
3.00
2.19
1.87
3.29
2.30
.67
.81
1
1
.67
.81
4.90
3.10
1.75
1.39
7.60
8.94
4.90
3.10
47. Industrial production
Jan. '53-Sep. '65 1.02
51. Bank debits, all SMSA's except N.Y....Jan. '53-Sep. '65 1.57
52 . Personal income
Jan ' 53-ijune ' 66 .53
53. Labor income in mining, mfg., constr..Jan. '53-&une'66
.84
54. Sales of retail stores
Jan. '53-Sep. '65
.97
55. Wholesale prices except farm products
and foods
> Jan. '53-Dec.'66
.17
.54
1.50
.27
.50
.83
.76
.64
.46
.64
.44
.71
2.34
.58
.78
1.88
1
3
1
1
3
.71
.58
.58
.78
.70
3.62
1.65
4.88
2.93
2.08
1.67
1.50
1.56
1.56
1.57
11.69
30.40
23.00
14.64
15.20
3.62
4.29
4.88
2.93
4.84
.11
.13
.84
1
.84
3.88
1.64
9.82
3.88
.51
.53
.37
.19
.30
.49
1.26
.38
2
1
.72 2.54
.38 10.13
1.57
1.63
3.81
7.86
21.71 10.13
.56
.84
.33
.11
.51
.82
.65
.14
1
1
.65 8.94
.14 11.69
1.49
1.63
13.82 8.94
21.71 11.69
.82 5.16
.60 6.37
2.16 12.68
1.26 10.77
8.28
2.94
6
6
6
6
6
C'1)
C11)
1.45
1.43
1.43
1.42
1.57
8.00
14.87
8.92
6.64
8.44
1.92 11.72
4.46
1.12
.93 1.41
.82 1.60
1.90
1.10
.65
.11
6
2
2
3
3
1
NBER ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
41. Employees in nonagri. establishments.. Jan. '53- June '66
42 . Total nonagri cultural employment
Jan. '53-Dec.'66
43. Unemployment rate, total
Jan. '53-Dec.'66
40. Unemployment rate, married males
Nov. '54- Dec. '66
45. Average weekly insured unemployment
rate , State
Jan. '53-Sep. '65
46. Help-wanted advertising
Jan. '53-Sep. ''65
NBER LAGGING INDICATORS
62. Labor cost per unit of output, mfg.... Jan. ' 53-Sep. '65
64. Book value of mfrs. ' inventories
Jan. '53-Sep. '65
65. Book value of manufacturers' inventories of finished goods
Jan. ' 53-Sep. '65
66. Consumer installment debt
Jan. '53-Sep. '65
OTHER SELECTED U.S. SERIES
82. Federal cash payments to public
Jan. '53-Sep. '65 4.42
4.25
83. Federal cash receipts from public
Jan. '55-Dec.'64 3.87
3.80
90 . Defense Dept . oblig . , procurement
Jan. '56-Sep. '65 27.42 27.34
91. Defense Department obligations, total. Jul. ' 53-Sep. '6513.86 13.59
Jan. '53-Sep. '65 24.51 24.35
92. Military contract awards in U.S
99. New orders, defense products
114. Treasury bill rate
115 . Treasury bond yields
116 . Corporate bond yields
117. Municipal bond yields
118. Mortga&e yields
Jan. '53-Sep. '65 22.53
Jan. '53-Sep. '65 6.70
Jan., '53-Sep. '65 1.65
Jan. (' 59- June '66 1.58:
Jan. '53-Sep. '65 2.46
Jul '61-SeD '65
.11
22.53
5.00
1.31
1.31
2.08
.07
C)
t11)
C)
C1)
1.57
1.59
1.43
1.40
1.63
1.57
.73 ' 2.53
.98 2.76
.74 2.54
.87 2.58
.65 10.00
2.58
3.35
2.02
2.07
2.83
9.50
2.53
1.48
6.61
3.68
1.77
2.00 8,00 3.68
1.85 12.71' 3.78
3.66
1.88 8.00
5.56 10.00
1.92
See footnotes at end of table.
67
Appendix C.-AVERAGE CHANGES AND RELATED MEASURES FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES-Continued
Part 1.-Average Percentage Changes-Continued
i/5
Monthly series
Period
covered
CI
I
C
1/5
MCD
for
MCD
span
Average duration of run
(ADR)
CI
I
C
MCD
OTHER SELECTED U.S. SERIES^-Con.
86. Exports, excluding military aid
Jan.'53-0ct.'64 3.81
87 . General imports
Jan.'53-0ct.'64 3.04
81 . Consumer prices
i Jan.'53-Dec.'66
.19
94. Construction contracts, value
Jan.'53-Sep.'65 6.64
96. Unfilled orders, durable goods indus.. Jan.'53-Sep. '65 1.45
3.56
2.87
.12
6.38
.54
.94
.80
.14
1.55
1.28
3.77
3.59
.83
4.12
.42
4
4
1
5
1
.91
.86
.83
.87
.42
1.78
1.83
3.98
1.55
5.63
1.66
1.62
1.62
1.52
1.57
14.10
10.85
9.82
8.00
10.86
4.06
3.54
3.98
3.15
5.63
.82
1.02
.77
1.33
1.38
1.40
1.23
.52
.42
.49
.66
.62
.72
1.22
1.58
2.41
1.55
2.02
2.24
1.96
1.01
2
3
2
3
3
3
2
.79
.86
.87
.64
.84
.67
.47
3.38
2.58
3.62
2.71
2.67
2.49
3.38
1.52
1.48
1.73
1.62
1.45
1.69
1.37
21.71
10.13
25.33
19.00
16.89
16.89
13.82
4.87
5.17
5.81
5.00
6.00
4.84
5.21
I
C
1/5
INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS OF
INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION
123. Canada
122. United Kingdom
121. OECD European countries
125 . West Germany
126. France
127. Italy
128. Japan
Jan.'53-Sep. '65
Jan.'53-Sep. '65
Jan.'53-Sep. '65
Jan.'53-Sep.«65
Jan. '53-Sep.'65
Jan.'53-Sep. '65
Jan. '53-Sep. '65
.93
1.08
.86
1.51
1.45
1.50
1.73
i/c
Quarterly series
Period
covered
ci
QCD
for
QCD
span
Average duration of run
(ADR)
CI
I
C
QCD
NBER LEADING INDICATORS
11.
16.
18.
22.
New capital appropriations, mf g
Corporate profits after taxes
Profits per dollar of sales, mfg
Ratio, profits to income originating,
corporate , all industries
IQ'53-IIIQ'65 10.36
5.56
IQ'53-IQ"66
IQ'53-IIIQ' 65 6.03
4.70
2.95
3.59
7.69
4.26
3.80
.61
.69
.95
1
1
1
.61
.69
.95
2.94
3.06
2.38
1.32
1.27
1.35
3.33
5.20
4.17
2.94
3.06
2.38
IQ'53-IQ'66
4.18
2.69
2.99
.90
1
.90
2.36
1.30
6.50
2.36
IQ'53-IQ'66
IQ'53-IQ'66
IQ'53-IQ'£6
1.28
1.54
1.37
.35
.34
.30
1.14
1.45
1.32
.31
.24
.23
1
1
1
3.47
.31
5.78
.24
.23 10.40
1.33
1.33
1.21
5.78
7.43
10.40
3.47
5.78
10.40
IQ'53-IIIQ'65
3.21
.77
2.99
.26
1
.26
5.56
1.47
5.56
5.56
.82
.42
.64
.65
1
.65
3.06
1.21
4.00
3.06
IQ'53-IIIQ'65
1.99
.96
1.80
.54
1
.54
2.38
1.47
3.33
2.38
IQ'53-IIIQ'65
IQ'53-IIIQ'65
IQ'53-IIIQ'65
10.70
4.11
6.63
6.58
2.05
1.20
7.70
3.15
6.38
.85
.65
.19
1
1
1
.85
.65
.19
2.41
2.41
4.17
1.15
1.23
1.32
3.79
4.42
8.33
2.41
2.41
4.17
NBER ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
50. GNP in 1958 dollars
49 . GNP in current dollars
57 Final sales
...
NBER LAGGING INDICATORS
61. Business expenditures, new plant and
68. Labor cost per dollar of real corporate GNP
67. Bank rates on short-term business
loans
.
IQ'53-IQ'66
OTHER SELECTED U.S. SERIES
110 . Total private borrowing
Ill . Corporate gross savings
97. Backlog of capital appro. , mfg
L
Not computed for series when MCD is "6" or more.
The following are brief definitions of the measures shown
in this table. More complete explanations appear in Electronic Computers and Business Indicators, by Julius Shiskin,
issued as Occasional Paper,57 by the National Bureau of Economic Research, 1957 (reprinted from Journal of Business, October 1957.
"CI", is the average month-to-month (or quarter-to-quarter)
percentage change, _without regard to sign, in the seasonally
adjusted series. "I" is the same for the irregular component,
obtained by dividing the cyclical component into the seasonally adjusted series.
"C" is the same for the cyclical
http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/
Federal Reserve 68
Bank of St. Louis
component, a smooth, flexible moving average of the seasonally
adjusted series.
"MCD" (months for cyclical dominance) provides an estimate
of the appropriate time span over which to observe cyclical
movements in a monthly series. It is small for smooth series
and large for irregular series. In deriving MCD, percentage
changes are_ computed separately for the irregular component
and the cyclical component over 1-month spans (Jan.-Feb., 'Feb.Mar.i, etc.), 2-month spans (Jan.-Mar., Feb.-Apr., etc.), up to
5-month spans. Averages, without regard to sign, are then
computed for the changes over each span. MCD is the shortest
span in months for which the average percentage change (without regard to sign) in the cyclical component is larger than
the average percentage change (without regard to sign) in the
curve is a moving average (with the number of
MCD) of the seasonally adjusted series.
irregular component, and remains so. Thus, it indicates the
point at which fluctuations in the seasonally adjusted series
become dominated by cyclical rather than irregular movements.
Since changes are not computed for spans greater than 5 months,
all series with an MCD greater than "5" are shown as "6".
Similarly, "QCD" provides an estimate of the appropriate time
span over which to observe cyclical movements in quarterly
series.
It is the shortest span (in quarters) for which the
average percentage change (without regard to sign) in the cyclical component is larger than the average percentage change
(without regard to sign) in the irregular component, and remains so.
terms equal to
A comparison of these measures of ADR with the expected ADR
of a random series gives an indication of whether the changes
approximate those of a random series.
Over 1-month intervals
in a random series, the expected value of the ADR is 1.5. The
actual value of ADR falls between 1.36 and 1.75 about 95 percent of the time.
Over 1-month intervals in a moving average
(MCD) of a random series, the expected value of ADR is 2.0.
For example, the ADR of CI is 1.65 for the series on bank
debits, all SMSA's except New York (series 51). This indicates
that 1-month changes in the seasonally adjusted series, on the
average, reverse sign about as often as expected in a random series.
The ADR measures shown in the next two columns,
1.50 for I and 30.40 for C, suggest that the seasonally adjusted series has been successfully separated into an essentially random component and a cyclical (nonrandom) component.
Finally, ADR is 4.29 for the MCD moving average.
This indicates that a 3-month moving average of the seasonally adjusted
series (3 months being the MCD span) reverses direction, on
the average, about every 4 months.
The increase in the ADR
from 1.65 for CI to 4.29 for the MCD moving average indicates
that, for this series, month-to-month changes in the MCD moving
average usually reflect the underlying cyclical trend movements
of the series, whereas the month-to-month changes in the seasonally adjusted series usually do not.
"I/C" is a measure of the relative smoothness(small values)
or irregularity (large values) of the seasonally adjusted series.
For monthly series, it is shown for 1-month _spans and
for spans of the period of MOD. When MOD is "6", no I/C_ratio
is shown for the MCD period.
For quarterly series, I/C is
shown for 1-quarter spans and QCD spans.
"Average Duration of Run" (ADR) is another measure of
smoothness and is equal to the average number of consecutive
monthly changes in the same direction in any series of observations.
When there is no change between 2 months, a change
in the same direction as the preceding change is assumed. The
ADR is shown for the seasonally adjusted series CI, irregular
component I, cyclical component C, and the MCD curve. The MCD
Appendix C.-AVERAGE CHANGES AND RELATED MEASURES FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES-Continued
Part 2.—Average Unit Changes
Monthly series
31. Change in book value, manufacturing
and trade inventories
Period
covered
Unit of
measure
CI
I
C
I/C Average duration of
run (ADR)
for
I/C MCD MCD
I
C MCD
span CI
Jan. '53-Sep. '65 Ann. rate,
bil. dol..
3.68
.74 4.87
3.58
20. Change in book value of manufacturers1
.29 4.97
1.51
inventories of materials, supplies... Jan. '53- Sep. '65
1.44
do
.46
.48
25. Change in unfilled orders, dur. goods. Jan. '53-Sep. '65 Bil. dol...
.13 3.51
84. Federal cash surplus or deficit
Jan. '55-Dec.'64 Ann. rate,
bil. dol.. 4.34
.82 5.16
4.22
Jan. '53-Sep. '65 Mil. dol... 98.01 78.89 46.86 1.68
93. Free reserves
Jan. '53-Sep. '65 Ann. rate,
85 . Change in money supply.
percent. . . 3.15
.33 : 9.61
3.17
do
98. Change, money supply and time deposits Jan. '53-Sep. '65
.29 8.91
2.56
2.58
112 . Change in business loans
Aug. '59-Sep. '65 Ann. rate,
bil. dol.. 1.39
1.35
.35 3.87
.79
.31 2.56
.87
do
113. Change in consumer installment debt... Jan. '53-Sep. '65
88. Merchandise trade balance
Jan. '53-Jun. '62 Mil. dol... 58.44 55.87 17.28 3.23
Quarterly series
21. Change in business inventories, all
industries
Period
covered
IQ'53-IQ'66
T
95. Balance, Nat l. income and product acct. IQ'53-IQ'66
89. U.S. balance of payments:
a. Liquidity balance basis
IQ'53-IIIQ'65
b. Official settlements basis
IQ'60-IQ'66
Unit of
measure
2.65
6 ( )1.67 1.50 6.08
4 .98 1.69 1.62 7.60
3.00
3.10
.98 1.59 1.43 7.44
.68 2.03 1.60 10.13
2.74
3.49
.98 1.51 1.43
X
5
3
6 t1) 1.39 1.39 10.87 2.47
6 t 1 ) 1.42 1.37 10.87 2.59
5 .95 1.62 1.55 6.64
3 .92 L.65 1.49 10.13
3 .97 1.82 1.61 9.42
2.56
3.13
2.64
I/C Average duration of
run (ADR)
for
QCD QCD
I
C QCD
span CI
CI
I
C
I/O
2.28
2.50
1.43
1.37
1.37
1.81
1.04
.76
2 .48 1.73 1.37
1 .76 2.17 1.37
4.00
3.71
2.83
2.17
Mil. dol... 340.64 225.64 216.94 1.04
492.17 302.66 286.13 1.06
do
2 .45 1.67 1.25
2 .55 2.00 1.41
3.13
2.67
2.72
2.56
Ann. rate,
bil. dol..
do
1
Not computed for series when MCD is "6" or more.
The measures in the above table are computed by an additive
method to avoid the distortion caused by zero and negative
data.
Thus, "CI" is the average month-to-month
(or quarterto-quarter) change in the seasonally adjusted series.
This
average is computed without regard to sign and is expressed in
9.06
5
the same unit of measure as the series itself. "C" is the same
for the cyclical component, which is a moving average of the
seasonally adjusted series. "I" is the same for the irregular
component, which is determined by subtracting the cyclical component from the seasonally adjusted series.
All other measures shown
part 1.
above have the same meaning as in
69
Appendix D.--CURRENT A D J U S T M E N T FACTORS FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES (MAY 1966 TO J U N E 1967)
1966
1967
Series
May
4.
5.
Temporary layoff, all industries
Average weekly initial claims, State
unemployment insurance
1
June
July
Aug.
Sept. Oct.
Feb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
87.9 97.4 153.4 115.4
82.9
Nov.
Dec.
Jan.
June
71.4 89.0 118.8 137.9
69.6
81.9
93.6
70.9
89.6
81.1
76.7
86.9 105.3 139.0 146.3 109.1 92.7 91.5
79.2
81.2
82.6 105.2 84.5
102.4 105.6 95.4 98.8 92.2 93.9 86.3 99.3 112.0 95.2 117.2 98.5 106.1 104.4
104.3 111.1 111.2 111.8 100.3 84.4 91.3 83.2 91.2 102.0 109.6 93.7 100.4 120.0
13.
14.
New business incorporations
Liabilities of "business failures
15.
18.
Large business failures
100.4 100.3
Profits per dollar of sales, mfg.2... 106.0
30.
37.
Nonagr. placements, all industries1.. 110.7 109.8 101.3 114.0 121.6 111.0
Purchased materials, percent report-
96.7
80.2
87.3
88.7
89.8 101.9 106.6 107.7 114.4 107.8 101.6
86.6 103.1 96.6 101. 1 93.3
99.7
96.4
107.9 101.6 100.1 97.5
95.9
82.8 106.7 111.9 108.4 108.2 100.7 100.1
97.9
106.0
82.3
78.4
92.6 100.4 113.1 110.3
1
82.
83.
Federal cash payments to public ..... 100.3 104.7 94.5 118.3 97.4 104.0 98.7 102.1 91.4 94.4 94.1 97.8 100.3
Federal cash receipts from public3... 1897. 4431. -4573.1313. 2181. -4969. 165. 655. -2964. 1315. 2258. -1689.1897.
90.
91.
Defense Dept. oblig., procurement....
Defense Dept. obligations, total
92.
112.
Military contract awards in U. S
Change in business loans
D34.
Profits, manufacturing (FNCB) 5
93.8 199.6 74.0 98.9
91.4 142.2 112.6 95.3
98.9
99.4
94.0
96.7
88.2 100.2 75.7
89.9 97.2 91.9
67.8 101.1 105.0
80.0 100.1 99.3
95.3
90.0
104.7
4431.
200.1
145.7
89.4 181.1 93.0 90.2 110.2 93.5 85.1 89.0 94.0 79.7 100.3 92.6 89.8 180.8
100.3 100.2 99.6 99.0 99.3 99.6 100.1 101.0 LOO. 2 99.6 100.6 100.3 100.3 100.2
-9
+6
-15
+18
NOTE: These data are not published by the source agency in seasonally adjusted form. Seasonal adjustments were made by the
Bureau of the Census or the National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. They are kept current by the Bureau of the Census. Seasonally adjusted data prepared by the source agency will be substituted whenever they are published. For a description of the
method used to compute these factors, see Bureau of the Census Technical Paper No. 15, The X-ll Variant of the Census Method II
Seasonal Adjustment Program.
1
Factors are products of seasonal and trading-day factors. Seasonally adjusted data resulting from the application of these
combined factors may differ slightly from those obtained by separate applications of seasonal and trading-day factors.
Quarterly series; figures are placed in middle month of quarter.
3
These quantities, in millions of dollars, are to be subtracted from the original monthly data to yield the monthly seasonally adjusted data. They were computed by the additive version of the X-ll variant of the Census Method II seasonal adjustment
program.
^Factors apply to total series before month-to-month changes are computed.
5
l-quarter diffusion index: Figures are placed on the 1st month of the quarter. The unadjusted diffusion index is computed
and the factors, computed by the additive version of the X-ll variant of the Census Method II seasonal adjustment program, are
subtracted to yield the seasonally adjusted index.
70
Appendix E.-PERCENT CHANGE FOR SELECTED SERIES OVER CONTRACTION AND EXPANSION PERIODS OF BUSINESS CYCLES: 1920 TO 1961
Percent change:
Contractions:
Reference peak to
reference trough
Jan.May
Oct.
Aug.
May
1920-July
1923- July
1926-Nov.
1929-Mar.
1937-June
1921
1924
1927
1933
1938
Feb.
Nov.
July
July
May
1945 -Oct. 19454
1948-Oct . 1949
1953-Aug . 19545
1957-Apr . 1958
1960-Feb. 1961
Median:6
All contractions
Excluding postwar contractions
4 contractions since 1948.
41. Employees
in nonagri. establishments
47. ' Index 50. GNP 49. GNP 51. Bank
of indus- in 1958 in cur- debits ,
trial
all
dollars rent
dollars SMSA's
produc(Q)1
1
tion
except
(Q)
New York
July
July
Nov.
Mar.
June
1921-May 1923
1924-Oct . 1926
1927-Aug. 1929
1933-May 1937
1938-Feb. 19454
Oct. 1945-Nov.
Oct . 1949-July
Aug . 1954-July
Apr. 1958-May
1948
19535
1957
1960
Median: 6
All expans ions
Excluding wartime expans ions
4 expansions since 1945...
52. Per- 54. Sales
of retail
sonal
stores
income
Change
in rate, Rate at
peak to
peak
trough
-31.6
-18.0
-5.9
-51.8
-31.7
(NA)
-0.3
+2.3
-28.0
-8.9
-19.7
-2.3
+0.4
-49.6
-11.9
-22.5
-3.1
+8.7
-61.9
-16.5
-21.9
0.0
+0.9
-50.8
-10.9
-4.3
-1.9
0.0
-43.5
-17.3
+7.9
+2.3
2
+2.2
+25.4
+8.8
-7.9
-5.1
-3.4
-3.9
-1.9
-31.4
-8.5
-9.1
-14.1
-5.7
(NA)
-1.6
-2.2
-3.4
-1.4
-10.9
-3.4
-0.8
-1.8
-0.2
-1.0
-4.0
+1.6
-3.1
+2.4
-4.0
-4.7
0.0
+0.2
+0.9
+8.6
-0.5
-0.5
-2.4
-2.7
+2.2
+4.1
+3.4
+3.2
+1.8
-5.6
-16.0
-1.9
-2.8
-3.1
-2.0
-2.2
-6.5
-3.6
-16.0
-8.8
-2.1
-1.9
-2.8
-1.3
-3.6
-0.8
-2.4
+0.1
-2.6
-1.4
41. Employees
in nonagri. establishments
51. Bank
debits,
all
SMSA's
except
New York
4.0
3.2
2
1.9
3
0.0
11.2
2
2
Rate at
trough
2
11.9
2
5.5
2
4.1
25.4
20.0
1.1
3.8
2.6
4.2
5.1
3.3
7.9
6.0
7.4
6.9
+3.3
3.5
7.2
+3.6
+3.3
3.9
4.0
7.6
7,2
3
43. Unemployment rate, total
Reference trough to reference peak
47. Index 50. GNP 49. GNP
of indus- in 1958 in curtrial
dollars rent
producdollars
(Q)1
tion
(Q)1
2
2
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
-31.6
-10.4
Percent change:
Expansions:
Reference trough to
reference peak
43. Unemployment rate, total
Reference peak to reference trough
52. Per- 54. Sales
Change
sonal
of retail
in rate, Rate at
stores
income
trough
trough
to peak
2
-8.7
2
2
Rate at
peak
2
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
+40.2
+45.9
+64.2
+30.4
+24.1
+119.9
+183.3
(NA)
+12.4
+12.6
+42.1
(NA)
+25.1
+14.7
+13.3
+73.9
+169.6
+23.5
+18.9
+20.4
+78.4
+131.7
+29.6
+13.2
+12.2
+76.3
+157.3
+15.7
+9.9
+3.6
+69.2
+105.4
-3.6
2
-0.9
-14.2
-18.9
11.9
2
5.5
2
4.1
25.4
20.0
+17.2
+17.8
+8.9
+6.9
+21.9
+50.0
+19.7
+25.2
+3.3
+28.8
+11.8
+11.4
+34.9
+44.1
+22.4
+15.1
+51.5
+49.3
+28.6
+21.2
+28.5
+41.4
+22.1
+13.3
+63.8
+25.6
+20.3
+11.9
+0.3
-5.3
-1.8
-2.3
3.3
7.9
6.0
7.4
+17.5
+35.2
+12.3
+27.5
+33.8
+26.7
+20.5
-3.7
7.1
3.3
+13.0
+13.0
+26.6
+23.6
+12.1
+11.6
+20.9
+28.6
+24.4
+39.0
+21.3
+25.3
+16.0
+23.0
-2.6
-2.0
6.3
6.7
3.7
3.9
3.2
1.9
3.2
11.2
1.1
2
2 3
3
3.6
2.6
4.2
5.1
NOTE: For series with a "months for cyclical dominance" (MCD) of "1" or "2" (series 41, 43, 47, and 52), the figure for the
reference peak (trough) month is used as the base. For series with an MCD of "3" or more (series 51 and 54), the average of the
3 months centered on the reference peak (trough) month is used as the base. The base for quarterly series (series 49 and 50) is
the reference peak (trough) quarter. See also MCD footnote to appendix C.
NA Not available.
-"•The most recent quarterly reference dates are as follows: 2d quarter 1958 (trough); 2d quarter 1960 (peak); and 1st quarter
1961 (trough). For earlier dates, see Business Cycle Indicators (NBER) vol. 1, p. 670.
2
Based on average for the calendar year.
3
Differs from figure for same date in expansion (contraction) part of table because of change in series used.
World War II contraction or expansion period.
5
Korean War contraction or expansion period.
6
The median is an average of the middle 2 or 3 items.
Source:
National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
71
INDEX
SERIES FINDING GUIDE
(Page Numbers)
(See table of contents at front of book for chart, table, and appendix titles)
Economic Process Group
and Series
(See complete titles and sources on
back cover)
Timing
classification
Tables
Charts
1
2
3
1
2
4
5
Appendixes
6
7
B
C
D
F
G
E
Page
Issue
Issue
Page
1. EMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT
1. Avg. workweek, production workers, mfg. .
2 Accession rate manufacturing • • • • • • • • •
46. Help-wanted advertising
30. Nonagricultural placements, all indus
41. Employees in nonagri. establishments
42. Total nonagricultural employment
3. Layoff rate, manufacturing
4 Temporary layoff all industries
5. Initial claims, State unemploy. insurance .
45. Avg. weekly insured unemploy. rate, State.
43. Unemployment rate, total
40. Unemployment rate married males ..
L
L
C
L
C
C
L
L
L
C
C
C
10
10
15
10
15
15
10
10
10
15
15
15
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
16
16
16
17
17
17
16
17
L
L
L
L
L
L
U
L
L
L
Lg
U
U
U
11
11
12
12
11
11
22
11
11
11
18
20
22
22
L
L
L
Lg
14
14
14
18
14
18
14
14
14
59
59
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
24
24
28
24
28
28
24
24
24
28
28
28
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
29
29
28
29
29
29
29
29
8
8
8
8
8
8
9
8
8
8
9
9
9
9
25
25
25
25
24
24
34
25
25
25
30
32
34
34
8
8
8
9
8
9
8
8
8
27
26
27
30
27
30
27
27
27
8
8
8
9
9
9
8
8
8
8
27
26
29
34
30
30
26
26
26
26
62
62
63
63
66
62
63
66
62
63
62
63
66
62
62
62
62
63
63
63
63
62
63
66
66
66
66
66
66
62
63
62
62
63
63
66
62
62
62
63
63
63
66
66
62
63
66
62
63
66
67
67
67
67
67
67
67
67
67
67
67
67
70
70
70
72
72
*66
*66
72
71
72
72
*66
*66
*66
71
72
72
Sept.
Sept.
Feb.
Oct.
Sept.
Feb.
Sept.
Nov.
July
Mar.
Feb.
Feb.
'66
'66
'64
'63
'66
'67
'66
'63
' 63
'64
'67
'67
71
72
70
72
72
72
72
72
Aug .
July
Sept.
Aug .
Aug.
Apr.
Aug.
Mar.
' 65
' 66
'64
' 65
'65
'66
'65
'65
74
74
74
*66
65
*66
June
July
June
Aug.
May
Dec.
' 65
' 65
' 65
'63
' 64
'63
68
65
73
66
68
Nov.
June
Feb .
June
Nov.
'64
' 64
' 67 73
' 64
'64
*66
71
72
66
64
66
*68
65
*66
Dec.
Aug.
Nov.
June
June
June
June
June
Mar.
'63
'65
'66
' 64
' 64
' 64
' 63
' 64
'64
*66
66
73
73
72
73
71
72
64
74
Jan.
Apr.
Feb.
Feb.
Nov.
Oct.
Aug.
Feb.
June
Sept.
'64
'64
'67
'67
'66
'65
'65
'67
' 64
'65
II. PRODUCTION, INCOME AND TRADE
49 GNP in current dol lars
50. GNP in 1958 dollars
47 Industrial production
52 Personal income
53. Wages and salaries in mining, mfg., constr.
54 Sales of retail stores
57 Final sales
51. Bank debits, all SMSA's except N.Y
60
60
59
••
••
68
68
67
67
67
67
68
67
71
71
71
71
71
71
III. FIXED CAPITAL INVESTMENT
29. New building permits, private housing
7 Private nonfarm housing starts
38 Index of net business formation
13 New business incorporations
6. New orders, durable goods industries
24. New orders, mach. and equip, industries . .
94 Construction contracts value
9. Construction contracts, comm. and indus. .
10. Contracts and orders, plant and equipment11. New capital appropriations, mfg
61. Bus. expenditures, new plant and equip . .
Ill Corporate gross savings
96. Unfilled orders, durable goods industries .
97. Backlog of capital appropriations, mfg .
58
60
••
67
67
67
67
67
67
68
67
67
68
68
68
68
68
70
July '64
IV. INVENTORIES
25. Change in unfilled orders, durable goods. .
21. Change in business inventories (GNP) . . .
31. Change, mfg. and trade inventories
64 Manufacturers' inventories total
20. Change, mtls. and supplies inventories. . .
65. Mfrs.' inventories, finished goods. . .
37. Purchased, materials, higher inventories..
26 Buying policy production materials
32. Vendor performance, slower deliveries . . .
['
L
L
60
62
63
66
69
69
69
67
69
67
67
67
67
70
V. PRICES, COSTS AND PROFITS
23 Industrial materials prices
19 Stock prices 500 common stocks
55. Wholesale prices exc. farm prod, and foods
81 Consumer prices
62. Labor cost per unit of output mfg
68. Labor cost per dollar of real corp. GNP. . .
16 Corporate profits after taxes
17 Ratio price to unit labor cost mfg
18. Profits per dollar of sales, mfg
22. Profits to income originating, corporate. . .
L
L
C
U
g
[Lg
L
L
L
14
13
17
22
18
18
13
13
13
13
58
58
59
61
58
62
62
62
63
63
63
66
66
62
63
66
62
62
63
63
66
67
67
67
68
67
68
68
67
68
68
70
70
70
L = leading, C = roughly coincident, Lg = lagging, U = unclassified (includes "other selected U.S. series" and "international comparisons"). *Appendix G.
SERIES FINDING GUIDE-Continued
(Page Numbers)
(See table of contents at front of book for chart, table, and appendix titles)
Economic Process Group
and Series
(See complete titles and sources on
back cover)
Timing
classification
Charts
1
2
Appendixes
Tables
3
1
2
4
5
6
7
B
C
D
G
F
E
Page
Issue
Issue
Page
VI. MONEY AND CREDIT
85
98.
93
66.
113
112.
110
U
Change in money supply
Change, money supply and time deposits . . U
U
Free reserves ...
Consumer installment debt
Lg
U
Change consumer installment debt
u
Change in business loans
u
Total private borrowing
114
115
116
117
Treasury bill rate
Treasury bond yields
Corporate bond yields
Municipal bond yields
67. Bank rates on short-term business loans . .
14 Liabilities of business failures
15 Large business failures
VII.
86
87
88.
89
u
u
u
u
u
20
20
20
18
20
20
20
61
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
32
32
32
30
33
32
32
9
9
9
9
9
9
8
8
33
33
33
33
33
30
25
26
62
63
62
63
69
69
69
67
69
69
68
L
21
21
21
21
21
18
12
12
U
U
U
U
22
22
22
22
9
9
9
9
33
34
34
34
68
68
69
69
U
U
U
U
U
U
U
u
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
31
31
31
31
31
31
31
32
67
67
69
69
67
67
67
67
u
u
u
u
u
u
u
23
23
23
23
23
23
23
Lg
61
62
62
63
63
66
67
67
67
67
67
68
67
67
70
70
70
72
73
66
70
71
71
73
Nov.
Nov.
Oct.
Aug .
July
July
Feb .
'66
'66
'64
' 64
' 64 73
' 64 73
' 61 73
July
July
July
' 64
' 64
' 64
71
72
72
72
72
70
*66
*66
July
July
Aug.
July
July
Aug.
Nov.
Mar.
' 64
'64
'66
' 64
' 64
'64
'63
'64
74
74
74
74
74
July
July
July
July
July
' 64
' 64
' 64
' 64
' 64
73
73
73
74
Nov.
Nov.
Nov.
July
'66
'66
'66
' 65
72
72
72
72
70
70
70
66
May
May
May
Aug.
Sept.
Sept.
Sept.
Oct.
' 66
' 66
' 66
'65
'64
'64
'64
'64
66
67
67
67
67
68
68
Oct.
Oct.
Oct.
Oct.
Oct.
Oct.
Oct.
'64
'64
'64
'64
'64
'64
'64
FOREIGN TRADE AND PAYMENTS
Exports excluding military aid
General imports
Merchandise trade balance
U S balance of payments
VIII. FEDERAL GOVERNMENT ACTIVITIES
83 Federal cash receipts from public
82 Federal cash payments to public
84 Federal cash surplus or deficit
95. Balance, Nat'l. income and prod, account .
91. Defense Department obligations, total
90. Defense Dept. obligations, procurement. . .
92 Military contract awards in U.S
99 New orders defense products
61
62
63
70
70
70
70
70
••
IX. INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS
121
122.
123
125
126
127
128
Industrial
Industrial
Industrial
Industrial
Industrial
Industrial
Industrial
production,
production,
production
production
production
production,
production
OECD
United Kingdom
Canada
West Germany
France
Italy
Japan
68
68
68
68
68
68
68
35
35
35
35
35
35
35
70
DIFFUSION INDEXES
Dl. Average workweek
D5 Initial claims
D6 New orders
Dll- Capital appropriations
D19 Stock prices
D23. Industrial materials prices
D34. Profits, mfg
D35 Net sales mfrs
D36 New orders
1-month. .
9-month. .
1-month .
9-month..
1-month. .
9-month..
1-quarter. .
3-quarter. .
1-month. .
9-month. .
1-month. .
9-month. .
1-quarter. .
4-quarter. .
4-quarter. .
D41. Employees in nonagri.establish. 1-month. .
6-month. .
D47. Industrial production
1-month. .
6-month. .
D48. Freight carloadings
4-quarter. .
D54. Retail sales
1-month. .
9-month. .
D58. Wholesale prices, mfg
1-month. .
6-month, .
D61. New plant and equip, expend.. 1-quarter. .
••
••
39
39
39
39
39
39
39
39
42
42
43
43
42
42
42
42
46-7
46-7
56
56
46-9
46-9
73
73
73
73
72
69
73
73
Sept. '66
Sept. '66
May.
'65
May
' 65
Apr. '65
Oct.
'64
Feb.
'65
Feb.
'65
39
39
39
39
39
41
41
43
43
43
43
43
45
45
55
55
48-9
48-9
72
69
72
73
69
70
70
Apr.
Oct.
Apr.
Feb.
Oct.
Nov.
Nov.
'65
'64
'65
'65
T
64
'64
'64
40
40
40
40
41
40
40
40
40
41
44
44
44
44
45
44
44
44
44
45
50-3
50-3
52-3
52-3
73
73
73
70
68-9
73
70
73
73
69
Sept.
Sept.
Apr.
Oct.
Nov.
Apr.
Oct.
Apr.
Feb.
Nov.
'66
'66
'65
'64
'64
'65
'64
'65
'65
'64
48-51
48-51
52-5
52-5
-•
••
••
••
••
L = leading, C = roughly coincident, Lg = lagging, U = unclassified (includes "other selected U.S. series" and "international comparisons"). *Appendix G.
CARRY the FACTS in Your POCKET!
POCKET Dm* BOOK USA1967
Latest in the series of statistical reference books issued by the Bureau of the
Census, U.S. Department of Commerce.
Well over 300 pages—in color—present current, authoritative statistics on
all major facets of the economic and social structure of the United States.. .
population, education, health, government, prices, labor, income, welfare, defense, recreation, agriculture, industry, science, and other subjects.
30 pages of charts and graphs . . . 469 statistical tables . . . brief narrative
description of the U. S. in the mid-1960's.
dt<| |?f|
FITS INTO POCKET OR PURSE.
POCKET DATA BOOK
USA1967
: Superintendent of Documents
Government Printing Office
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