Full text of Business Conditions Digest : February 1966
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U.S. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE
John T. Connor, Secretary
BUREAU OF THE CENSUS
A. Ross Eckler, Director
Howard C. Grieves, Deputy Director
Morris H. Hansen, Asst. Director for Research and Development
JULIUS SHISKIN, Chief Economic Statistician
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PREFACE
This report brings together many of the available
economic indicators in convenient form for analysis and interpretation.
The presentation and classification of series follow the business indicators
approach. The classification of series and the business cycle turning dates
are those designated by the National Bureau of Economic Research
(NBER) which, in recent years, has been the leader in this field of investigation. However, this publication is not to be taken as implying acceptance
or endorsement by the Bureau of the Census or any other government
agency of any particular approach to business cycle analysis. It is intended
only to supplement other reports of the Department of Commerce that
provide data for analyzing current business conditions.
The unique features are the arrangement of data according to their
usual timing relations during the course of the business cycle and the inclusion of special analytical measures and historical cyclical comparisons
that help in evaluating the current stage of the business cycle. In addition the movements of the series are shown against the background of the
expansions and contractions of the general business cycle so that "leads"
and "lags" can be readily detected and unusual cyclical developments
spotted.
About 90 principal series and over 300 components are included
in preparing the report. The exact number of series included for the total
and important classes of series may vary from month to month because of
additions of new series and revisions in the composition of indexes. Almost all of the basic data are available in published reports. A complete
list of series and the sources of data is shown on the back cover of this
report. Series are seasonally adjusted except those that do not appear
to contain seasonal movement.
The chief merits of this report are the speed with which the data
are collected, assembled, and published and the arrangement of the series
for business cycle studies. Publication is scheduled for around the 22d of
the month following the month of data.
February 1966
DATA THROUGH JANUARY
Series ESI No. 66-2
New Features and Changes for This Issue ___________________________
Data Bank of Business Cycle Series
_______________________________
iii
iv
Introduction ________________________ __________________________ 1
Method of Presentation
_________________________________________
1
Designation of Business Cycle Turning Points _______________________ 2
Seasonal and Related Statistical Adjustments ________________________ 2
MCD Moving Averages
_________________________________________
2
Analytical Measures of Current Change
____________________________
3
Comparisons of Cyclical Patterns
__________________________________
4
Charts _^ _____________________________________________________ 5
How to Read Charts 1 and 2 ____________________________________ 6
TABLE 1. Changes Over 4 Latest Months
________________________
CHART L Business Cycle Series From 1948 to Present _______________
TABLE 2. Latest Data for Business Cycle Series _______ _ ____________
8
10
24
TABLE
CHART
TABLE
TABLE
38
39
42
46
3.
2.
4.
5.
Distribution of "Highs" for Current and Comparative Periods __
Diffusion Indexes From 1948 to Present _________________
Latest Data for Diffusion Indexes
_______________________
Selected Diffusion indexes and Components ________ _______
ABOUT THE COVER—
Series in this publication are grouped according to their usual timing and
shown against the background of contractions and expansions in general
business activity. The cover design illustrates this concept. The black vertical
bar represents a contraction; the top curve, the Leading Series which usually
fall before a contraction has begun and rise before it has ended; the middle
curve, the Coincident Series which usually fall with the contraction period;
the bottom curve, the Lagging Series which fall after a contraction has
begun and rise after it ends.
CONTINUED
CHART 3. Comparisons of Reference Cycles ___ ,______._.„____- _ ____„ 58
TABLE 6. Comparisons From Reference Peak Levels and Reference
Trough Dates ________________ _ __________ _ _ _ _ _ „ _ _ _ = 62
TABLE 7. Comparisons From Reference Trough Levels and Reference
Trough Dates
_ _ ~ _______ _ _____ _ _____ - _____ - . _ „ _ _ _ _ 63
Appendix A. Business Cycle Expansions and Contractions in the
United States: 1854 to 1961 __________ „ „ - _ - _ _ _ - _ _ _ Appendix B. Specific Trough and Peak Dates for Selected
Business Indicators _____________ . ______ .____ _ „ = _ _ _ _ _
Appendix C. Average Changes and Related Measures for Business
Cycle Series ________________________ _ „ „ _ _ „ _ _ _ - . Appendix D. Current Adjustment Factors for Business Cycle
Series _ _ _ _ _____ _ _ _ ____________ _ _________ _ _ _ _ _ _ „ „
Appendix E. Percent Change for Selected Series Over Contraction
and Expansion Periods of Business Cycles:
1920 to 1961 (See January issue)
Appendix F. Historical Data for Selected Series _ _ _ _ _ _ „ „ _____ _ _ . _ .____
Series Finding Guide ______________________ _ _ _____ „ , _ _ _ „ _ „ _ „ _ „
65
66
67
70
71
73
D A limited number of changes are made from time to time to reflect the
change from one stage of the business cycle to another, to show new findings
of business cycle research and newly available economic series, or to emphasize the activity of a particular series or series group. Such changes may
involve additions or deletions of series used, changes in placement in relation
to other series, changes in components of indexes, etc.
Changes in the issue are as follows:
1. Data on employment and unemployment (series 40,
42, and 43) have been revised throughout the report to
reflect new seasonal adjustments by the source agency.
2. Series 86, 87, and 88 on foreign trade have been
revised back to January 1964 because of regular end-ofyear adjustments of the original data, and back to
January 1948 because of new seasonal adjustments.
3. The sample for the retail sales survey has been
revised, effective with data for October 1965, and a
new seasonal adjustment has been made starting in
January 1964.
4. Revised average changes and related measures
(summary measures), computed by the X-ll variant of
Census_Method II, are shown in appendix C (and in table
1 for CI) for series 13, 18, 30, 90, 91, 112, and 128.
In addition, the summary measures for series 40, 42,
43, 86, and 87, computed by the X-ll variant of Census
Method II and published last month, have been revised
on the basis of the revisions noted in items 1 and 2,
above.
5. Appendix F includes historical data for series
40, 42, 43, 86, 87, and 88.
The March issue of BUSINESS CYCLE DEVELOPMENTS is
scheduled for release on March 23.
in
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Programs for Time
Analysis
Since October 1965, the Bureau of the Census has been using the X-ll variant
of Census Method II as its standard seasonal adjustment program, replacing
the X-9 and X-10 variants. The X-ll variant is described in Bureau of the
Census Technical Paper No. 15, The X-ll Variant of the Census Method II
Seasonal Adjustment Program. An abstract of the paper appeared in the October
1965 issue of BUSINESS CYCLE DEVELOPMENTS. A version to adjust
quarterly series (X-11Q) is also available.
The X-ll and X-11Q programs have been compiled in Fortran IV on the
Univac 1107 and the IBM 7090 and may be adapted for use on other large-scale
computers. The X-ll program contains 2,500 Fortran source statements and
requires 23,000 36-bit words of core memory on the 1107. The X-11Q contains
1,500 Fortran statements and requires 15,000 words on the 1107. The programs
will adjust series as short as 3 years and as long as 30 years in length.
Prospective users, particularly those with machines other than the Univac 1107
and the IBM 7090, should study the detailed description of the program in
Technical Paper No. 15 before purchasing it. This program is being adapted
for small computers. Information about such adaptations will be provided
by the Bureau of the Census upon request when it becomes available. However,
the Census Bureau staff will not be available to help resolve problems that
arise in the use of these adaptations. Before purchasing the Fortran deck, please
be sure it is suitable for your computer.
A program for the computation of diffusion indexes is also available. It contains 450 Fortran statements and requires 16,000 words on the 1107. The
program will accept up to 80 component series of up to 20 years in length for
each index.
A punch card file containing data shown in BUSINESS CYCLE DEVELOPMENTS for the principal business cycle series included in table 2, the diffusion
indexes in table 4, and the component series (listed in table 5) used to compute
14 of the diffusion indexes is maintained at the Bureau of the Census. Duplicate
cards for 85 of the principal series, the 30 diffusion indexes, and 145 of their
components are available. (The other series may be obtained only from the
sponsoring agencies.) One card is required per series year. (For the few
series where data are not available back to 1948, data will be included beginning
with the first available year.) The cost for the 85 principal series, from 1948 to
date, is $50. For these principal series plus the 30 diffusion indexes and 145
component series, the cost is $100 for the same period. The series are available
in these two quantities only. The Census Bureau cannot supply special sortings
or tabulations of these data.
The Bureau of the Census cannot keep customers' files current. However, the
figures required for this purpose are published in BUSINESS CYCLE DEVELOPMENTS each month.
Copies of the programs, papers, and data may be ordered by using the form on page 75.
IV
Students of economic conditions describe the business
cycle as consisting of alternating periods of expansion
and contraction in production, employment, income,
money flows, prices, and other economic processes.
The fluctuations take place in a concerted manner, but
not simultaneously. Once an expansion gets underway,
it spreads from firm to firm, from industry to industry,
from area to area, and from process to process, cumulating until a cyclical peak in aggregate activity is
reached. Even while expansion is widespread during
the upward phase of the business cycle, some activities
continue to move in the opposite direction. Declines
begin to spread as the expansion nears its peak and
continue to spread even faster after the peak has been
passed. But some activities continue to expand during
the general contraction. Before long these expansions
become stronger and more widespread. When they
begin to dominate the situation, the upturn in aggregate
activity has arrived and a new expansion is underway.
This sequence is recurrent, but not periodic.
The causal relations among these various economic
processes are primarily responsible for the cumulative
nature of cyclical forces, and explain why expansion
eventually turns into recession and recession into expansion. Cyclical fluctuations in production and employment are preceded by fluctuations in measures
which relate to future rather than to current production—measures such as new orders for durable goods,
the formation of new business enterprises, and accessions to payrolls. They are followed by fluctuations
in various types of enonomic costs, such as labor costs,
interest rates, fulfillment of long-term commitments,
and holdings of inventories and of debts.
tivity. The series have been grouped and classified
by the NBER as "leading", "roughly coincident", or
"lagging" indicators. These indicators are defined as
follows:
£t>
NBER Leading Indicators.—Series that usually
reach peaks or troughs before those in aggregate
economic activity as measured by the roughly coincident series (see below). One group of these
series pertains to activities in the labor market,
another to orders and contracts, and so on.
l>
NBER Roughly Coincident Indicators.—Series
that are direct measures of aggregate economic
activity or move roughly together with it; for example, nonagricultural employment, industrial
production, and retail sales.
!>
NBER Lagging Indicators.—Series, such as new
plant and equipment expenditures and manufacturers' inventories, that usually reach turning
points after they are reached in aggregate economic activity.
Other U.S. series with business cycle significance are
included in this report. Some of these series, such as
change in money supply, merchandise trade balance,
and cash surplus or deficit, represent important factors
in the economy, but they have not qualified as indicators
for various reasons, such as irregularity in timing.
Finally, industrial production indexes for several countries which have important trade relations with the
United States are presented.
The list of series covered and sources of the basic
data are shown on the back cover of this report. Series
numbers are for identification only and do not reflect
series relationships or order.
Although this pattern has been characteristic of
American economic history, today many economists
do not consider it inevitable.
Intensive research by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) over many years has provided
a list of those significant series that usually lead, those
that usually move with, and those that usually lag
behind cyclical movements in aggregate economic ac-
Data are shown in this report in three general categories,
as follows:
&>
Basic Data (chart 1 and tables 1 and 2).—Data
are shown for business cycle indicators, additional
U.S. series with business cycle significance, and
industrial production indexes for selected countries. Together, they provide a broad view of
current and prospective business cycle fluctuations in the economy as well as the basis for
making an economic interpretation of these fluctuations.
O
Analytical Measures (chart 2 and tables 3 to 5).—
These are measures that aid in forming a judgment of the imminence of a turning point in the
business cycle, determining the extent of current
changes in different parts of the economy, and
pointing to developments in particular industries
and places.
>
Cyclical Patterns (chart 3 and tables 6 and 7).—
Current cyclical levels are compared with levels at
corresponding stages of earlier cycles. These comparisons are made in different ways depending
upon the phase of the business cycle.
In addition to the data shown as part of the regular
report, certain appendix materials are presented. These
materials include historical data, key information, and
adjustment factors.
The business cycle turning dates used in this report are
those designated by the NBER. They mark the approximate dates when aggregate economic activity reached its
cyclical high or low levels. As a matter of general
practice, a business cycle turning date will not be designated until at least 6 months after it has occurred.
Monthly business cycle peaks and troughs have been
dated by the NBER for the period 1854-1961. Over
this span, expansion has prevailed 61 percent of the
time and contraction, 39 percent. If war periods are
disregarded, expansion has prevailed 56 percent of the
time and contraction, 44 percent.
Adjustments for normal seasonal fluctuations are often
necessary to bring out the underlying cyclical trends
of a series. Such adjustments allow for periodic intrayear variations resulting chiefly from normal differences
in weather conditions during the year and from various institutional arrangements. Some series contain
considerable variation attributable to the number of
working or trading days in each month. An additional
adjustment is necessary in such cases to reduce this
variation. Variations due to holidays are usually accounted for by the seasonal adjustment process; how
ever, there are some cases in which a separate holiday
adjustment is necessary for holidays with variable dates.
Such a case is retail sales of apparel which is affected
strongly by the date of Easter and, to a lesser degree, by
the dates of Labor Day and Thanksgiving.
In general, the seasonal adjustment process is designed to adjust for average weather conditions but
not for the dispersion about that average. Thus, some
seasonally adjusted series, such as housing starts, will
tend to be low in months of unusually bad weather and
high during unusually good weather. At the Bureau
of the Census, studies have been started on some series
to determine the effects of abnormal weather. Although it eventually may be possible, Census methods
do not at present make any adjustments for such
variations,
Most of the series contained in this report are presented in seasonally adjusted form. Unadjusted data
are used only for those series which appear to have no
pattern of seasonal variation. (Unadjusted series are
identified in table 2.) In most cases, the seasonally
adjusted data used for a series are the official figures
released by the source agency; therefore, several different methods of seasonal adjustment are involved.
In addition, for the special purposes of business cycle
studies, a number of series that are not ordinarily published in seasonally adjusted form are shown on a
seasonally adjusted basis in this report. For these
series, seasonal adjustments have been developed by
either the NBER or the Census Bureau. The adjustment factors for these series, derived by Census Method
II, are shown in appendix D. Factors for series which
are the sums of seasonally adjusted components or
which are based on unpublished source data are not
shown.
MCD (months for cyclical dominance) is an estimate
of the appropriate span over which to observe the cyclical movements in a monthly series. This span is usually
longer than a single month because month-to-month
changes are often dominated by erratic movements, but
shorter than the frequently used 12-month span (change
from the same month a year ago), and is different for
different series (see appendix C for ,MCD values and
method of computation).
MCD is, on average, the first span of months for
which the average change for the cyclical factor is
greater than that of the irregular factor and remains so.
It is small for smooth series and large for irregular
series. The month-to-month differences between moving averages of the period equal to MCD are commensurate with the differences between seasonally
adjusted values separated by the same MCD span;
thus, the month-to-month differences in a 3-month
moving average are commensurate with differences in
seasonally adjusted values over 3-month spans. MCD
moving averages all have about the same degree of
smoothness. Consequently, MCD moving averages of
highly irregular series, such as business failures and
Federal cash payments, will show their cyclical movements about as clearly as the seasonally adjusted data
for such smooth series as industrial production.
MCD moving averages are shown in chart 1 for all
series with an MCD of "5" or more. To provide an
indication of the variation about these moving averages,
seasonally adjusted data are also plotted beginning
with 1958. Although not so smooth as more powerful
moving averages (such as the weighted 13-term Henderson curve), the MCD curve is more current and has a
smaller rounding bias around business cycle peaks and
troughs. On balance, the MCD curve seems to offer a
reasonable compromise in terms of currency, smoothness, and fidelity to the patterns of business cycle fluctuations.
Because of advance reporting and preliminary seasonal factors, the MCD's for current data are usually
larger than those computed from historical series and
shown in appendix C. MCD is usually computed for a
fairly long period, one covering both expansions and
contractions. Since the pace of change varies from
phase to phase of the business cycle, such a measure will
not provide an accurate estimate of the span over which
to estimate cyclically significant changes at all times.
Thus, MCD computed for the period 1953-63 is likely
to be too high during the early stages of recovery when
expansion has usually been rapid and too low during
the late stages of expansion when the rate of advance
has usually been small. This limitation should be borne
in mind when making use of this measure.1
F C
T
Three kinds of analytical measures are presented—timing distributions, diffusion indexes, and directions of
change. These measures aid in forming a judgment of
the current changes compared to previous changes, the
imminence of a turning point in the business cycle, and
the extent of current changes in different parts of the
economy. They also point to developments in particular industries and places.
1
For a more complete description of MCD and its use in
studying economic series, see Business Cycle Indicators,
Geoffrey H. Moore, editor; National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc., vol. 1, ch. 18, "Statistics for Short-Term-Economic
Forecasting," by Julius Shiskin (Princeton University Press:
1961).
Timing Distributions
Distributions of current "highs" appear to be helpful
in appraising the evidence for a prospective business
cycle turning point. Each month a timing distribution
is constructed. This timing distribution shows the number of series reaching new highs and the percent currently high for each of several recent months (see table
3). Similar distributions of "lows" will be presented
during contractions.
To provide historical perspective for interpreting the
distribution of current highs, such distributions are
also shown for leading and coincident series as they
appear 3 months and 6 months before the peak of
each of the earlier post-World War II expansions and
at their peaks.
To compile timing distributions for the current
cyclical phase, the data for the leading and roughly
coincident business cycle indicators are scanned each
month. During a business cycle expansion, the date of
the high value for each series is recorded. (For inverted
series—that is, series with negative conformity to the
business cycle—dates of low values are taken.) If the
values for 2 or more months are equal, the latest date
is taken as the high month. In selecting these values,
erratic values may be disregarded, although it is, of
course, difficult to identify an erratic value, particularly
for the current month.
The letter "H" is used in table 2 to identify and
highlight the current high values during the expansion.
The highs designated during the current cyclical phase
will not necessarily be the specific cycle peaks, (See
appendix B.) As new high levels are reached during
the expansion, the current highs will be moved ahead.
Comparisons of the current timing distributions with
those for periods around earlier business cycle peaks
are helpful for appraising the evidence of a prospective
business cycle turning point.
Interpretations of timing distributions must be made
in light of the fact that a contraction following a high
value reached several months ago may be the result
of an erratic fluctuation and that a new high may be
reached in some future month. In short, when the
percent currently high falls below 50 percent for both
the leading and roughly coincident series, this does
not necessarily signify that a business cycle peak has
occurred. It may do so, but it may simply reflect a
short reversal in the upward movement.
Diffusion Indexes
Diffusion indexes are simple summary measures of
groups of economic series. They express, for a given
aggregate series, the percent of the series components
which have risen over given spans of time. Their turning points tend to lead the turning points of the
aggregate and they measure how widespread a business
change is. They vary between the limits of 100 (all
components rising) and zero (all components falling). Widespread increases are often associated with
rapid growth and widespread declines with sharp reductions in aggregate activity.
The diffusion indexes in this report are grouped
according to the timing classification of the NBER.
For monthly series, comparisons are made over 1month spans (January-February, February-March,
etc.) and generally for either 6- or 9-month spans,
depending upon the irregularity of the series. The
indexes based on 1-month spans are more "current"
but they are also more irregular than the 6* or 9month indexes. (See chart 2.) Quarterly series are
compared over 1-quarter spans, 3-quarter spans, and
4-quarter spans.
Recent research has shown that the longer-span
diffusion indexes are not only smoother, but have
systematically larger amplitudes than the 1-month indexes. The 1-month indexes generally have large irregular fluctuations, but the movements may be significant when important changes are taking place, particularly around cyclical turning points. Since the
longer-span diffusion indexes are centered, there is
an apparent loss in currency equal to one-half the
span; for example, 3 months in the case of a 6-month
diffusion index. However, the most recent figure for
a 6-month or longer-span index does provide the latest
available information on changes over that span. If a
significant reversal has taken place within that span,
:he 1-month indexes are likely to reveal it. Presenta:ion of both 1-month and longer-span diffusion indexes
provides an opportunity for the user to take advantage
of the best features of each in interpreting current
changes.
Series numbers preceded by the letter "D" designate
diffusion indexes. When one of these numbers corresponds to the number of a basic indicator series,
it means that the diffusion index has been computed
from components of the indicator series; for example,
the diffusion index numbered "D6" is computed from
components of series 6. Diffusion indexes not computed from basic series components are assigned new
numbers.
Diffusion indexes that are based on business expectations show what proportion of business enterprises
(or industries) are forecasting a rise in activity. Comparisons with indexes based on actual changes show
whether there is a generally optimistic bias or a lag
in recognition of actual developments.
Diffusion-Index Components
Many of the component series used to make up the
diffusion indexes are shown in table 5. Where possible,
recent basic data for the components are shown in
part A. In part B, directions of change in these
components are indicated for consecutive months and,
depending upon the irregularity of the diffusion index,
for either 6- or 9-month spans. The directions of
change are indicated by " + " for rising, "o" for unchanged, and "—" for falling. (In counting the number of components rising, a "o" is counted as onehalf.)
This table provides a convenient view of changing
business conditions and is helpful in making an economic interpretation of the movements in the more
highly aggregated statistical measures. That is, it
shows which economic activities went up, which went
down, and how long such movements have persisted.
The table also helps to show how a recession or recovery spreads from one sector of the economy to
another.
In forming a judgment about the current intensity
and probable ultimate character of a cyclical fluctuation, some economists find it helpful to compare the
behavior of the various series in the current business
cycle phase with their behavior during the corresponding phase of previous business cycles. These comparisions are made in different ways depending upon
whether the current cyclical phase is an expansion or
contraction.
Expansions are compared in one way by measuring
changes from the immediately preceding peak levels.
In table 6 of this report, data for the latest month
in the current expansion (shown by number of months
from the February 1961 trough) are compared with
the May 1960 reference peak. For each earlier expansion, data for a like period (same number of
months from the trough of the expansion) are compared with the preceding reference peak. This type
of comparison is designated as changes computed
from reference peak levels and reference trough dates.
This type of comparison shows whether, and by how
much, the current level of activity exceeds or falls
short of the level at the preceding business cycle
peak, and how the current situation compares, in this
respect, with earlier expansions. For those earlier
periods of expansion that were shorter than the current
one, the comparisons reflect the status at a point after
a new contraction had set in.
Expansions are also compared by computing changes
from reference trough levels and reference trough dates
(table 7). For the current expansion, this type of
comparison measures the extent of the rise from the
trough level (February 1961) to the level at the current month. For each earlier expansion, data for a
like period (same number of months from the trough of
the expansion) are compared with the level at the
trough. The same situation exists here as for the
comparisons shown in table 6: For earlier expansions
that were shorter than the current one, the comparisons
show the status at a point after a new contraction had
set in.
Contractions can be compared by computing changes
over the span from the most recent business cycle peak
to the current month and over equal spans from
previous reference peaks. This type of comparison is
designated as changes from reference peak levels and
reference peak dates. These comparisons will be made
during a contraction period.
In addition to comparing cyclical fluctuations on the
basis of reference dates, which are'the same for all
series, similar comparisons may be made using the
specific peak and trough dates identified for each series.
(Appendix B lists specific dates for a selected group
of series.) Such comparisons would be based on
changes from specific peak levels and specific trough
dates and on changes from specific trough levels and
specific trough dates. Although these specific cycle
comparisons are not currently included in this report,
they have been shown in previous issues.
Nearly all series have undergone changes in definition, coverage, or estimation procedure since 1919;
therefore, the historical comparisons are to be considered only approximate. Furthermore, it is sometimes necessary to use data for a closely related series
for cycles prior to the period covered by the series
used currently. The principal substitutions of this
type are as follows:
7. New private nonfarm dwelling units started
(prior to 1948: Residential building contracts,
floor space, by F. W. Dodge Corp.)
41, Number of employees in nonagricultural establishments (prior to 1929: Factory employment)
52. Personal income (prior to 1929: Quarterly data
as published by Barger and Klein)
54. Sales of retail stores (prior to 1929: Department
store sales)
62. Index of labor cost per unit of output, total
manufacturing (prior to 1948: Production worker
wage cost per unit).
Two types of charts are used to highlight the cyclical
patterns of the business cycle series: Historical time
series and cyclical comparisons,
Historical Time Series
(charts 1 and 2)
These charts show cyclical fluctuations against the
background of expansions and contractions in general
business activity from 1948 to the current month.
Shaded areas on the charts indicate periods of business cycle contractions between business cycle peak
dates (beginnings of shaded areas) and business cycle
trough dates (ends of shaded areas). The shading for
a new contraction will be entered only after a trough
has been designated.
Several different ratio and arithmetic scales are used
to highlight the cyclical movements of the various series.
The scale selected for each series is identified in the
margin of the chart. Rates of change of various series
can be compared with each other only where scales are
identical. See the diagram, page 6, for additional help
in using these charts.
Cyclical Comparisons
(chart 3)
This chart compares the movements of selected series
during the current business cycle with their movements
through the corresponding phases of previous business
cycles. Actually, it is an extension of the concept behind table 6. While table 6 makes a comparison at
one point in time, chart 3 shows these comparisons
over the course of the whole business cycle. These
comparisons facilitate judgments on the vigor of the
current expansion relative to behavior during the expansions of earlier cycles.
Instead of following the usual date sequence, as in
charts 1 and 2, the data in this chart are alined according to the strategic points of the business cycle.
Each of the included series is separated into four segments which encompass the three complete business
cycles since 1948 and the current expansion. These
segments are alined so that the trough dates all fall at
the same point on the horizontal scale and so that the
levels of the preceding peaks all fall at the same point
on the vertical scale.
A similar chart, based on specific cycle dates, was
previously included in this report but has been discontinued for the present.
Peak (P) of cycle indicates; end of
expansion and beginning of Recession (shaded areas) as designated
by NBER.
CHART 1 - Business Cycle Series
See back cover for complete titles
and sources of series.
Trough (T) of cycle indicates end of
recession and beginning of Expansion (white areas) as designated by
NBER.
Arabic number indicates latest
month for which data are plotted.
;"12" = December)
Solid line indicates monthly data, v c
(Data may be actual monthly fig- >^
ures or MCD moving averages.*)
Roman number indicates latest
quarter for which data are plotted.
I'll"— second quarter)
Broken line indicates actual
monthly data for series where an
MCD moving average * is plotted.
Dotted line indicates anticipated
data.
Parallel lines indicate a break in
continuity (data not available,
changes in series definitions,
extreme values, etc.)
Various scales are used to highlight the patterns of the individual
series. Series plotted to different
scales are not directly comparable.
"Scale A" is an arithmetic scale,
"scale L-l" is a logarithmic scale
with 1 cycle in a given distance,
"scale L-2" is a logarithmic scale
with 2 cycles in that distance, etc.
Solid line with plotting points indicates quarterly data.
CHART 2 - Diffusion Indexes
Solid line indicates monthly data
over 6- or 9-month spans.
Scale shows percent of components rising.
Broken line indicates monthly data
over 1-month spans.
Arabic number indicates .latest
month for which data are used in
computing the indexes. ("12" =
December)
Solid line with plotting points indicates quarterly data over various
spans.
* Many of the more irregular series are
shown in terms of their MCD moving
averages as well as their actual monthly
data. In such cases, the 4-, 5-, or 6-term
moving averages are plotted IVz, 2, or
2V2 months, respectively, behind the
actual data. See page 2 for a description of MCD moving averages.
Roman number indicates latest
quarter for which data are used in
computing the indexes. ("111" =
third quarter)
Broken line with plotting points indicates quarterly data over various
intervals. This line is also used to
indicate anticipated quarterly data.
Section ONE
charts and tables
LEADING INDICATORS
Sensitive employment and unemployment
New investment commitments
New businesses and business failures
Profits and stock prices
Inventory investment, buying policy, and sensitive prices
ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
Employment and unemployment
Production
Income and trade
Wholesale prices
LAGGING INDICATORS
Investment expenditures
Cost per unit of output
Inventories
Debt
Interest rates
OTHER U.S. SERIES
Federal budget and military commitments
Reserves, money supplyf and financing
Interest rates
Foreign trade
INTERNATIONAL
COMPARISONS
Industrial production indexes for selected foreign countries
TABLE
^^
BASIC DATA
FEBRUARY 1966
bed
CHANGES OVER 4 LATEST MONTHS
Average percent change2
Basic data1
Series
(See complete titles and sources on
back cover)
NBER LEADING INDICATORS
1. Avg. workweek, prod, workers, mfg
2 Accession rate, manufacturing
30. Nonagri. placements, all industries
3 Layoff rate, manufacturing
4. Temporary layoff, all industries
5. Avg. weekly initial claims, State
unemployment insurance
6. New orders, durable goods indus ......
24. New orders, mach. and equip, indus ....
9. Construction contracts, commercial
and industrial.
10. Contracts and orders, plant, equip
11. New capital appropriations, mfg6
7. Private nonfarm housing starts
29. New bldg. permits, private housing
38 Index of net business formation
13. New business incorporations
14 Liabilities of business failures
15. Large business failures
16 Corporate profits after taxes6.
17. Ratio, price to unit labor cost,6 mfg
18 Profits per dol of sales mfg
22. Ratio, profits to income originating,
corporate, all industries 6
19. Stock prices, 500 common stocks*
21. Change in business
inventories, all
industries 6 ' 7 .
31. Change in book value, manufacturing
and trade inventories 7
20. Change in book value, mfrs.' inven-7
tories of materials and supplies
37. Purchased materials, percent reporting
higher inventories
26- Buying policy, prod, mtls., commitments 60 days or longer *
32. Vendor performance, percent reporting
slower deliveries*
25. Change in unfilled 7orders, durable
goods industries
23. Industrial materials prices*
Hours
Per 100 empi . .
Thous
Per 100 empi . .
Thous
do
Bil. dol
do
Mil. sq. ft.
floor space . .
Bil. dol
... .do
Ann. rate,
thous
1957-59-100 ..
do
Number
Mil. dol
No. per week . .
Ann. rate,
bil dol . ...
1957-59=100..
Cents
Nov.
1965
Oct.
1965
Unit of
measure
41.2
4.5
547
1.3
84
41.4
5.0
544
rl.3
120
Dec.
1965
Jan.
1966
41.4
P4.6
P41.4
563
pl.3
125
(NA)
570
(NA)
111
1953 to Jan. '65 Jan. '65
to date to date
1965
(without3 (without (with 5
sign)
sign)
sign)4
0.5
4.8
1.8
9.2
17.1
0.2
6.3
2.2
5.3
19.1
0.0
Current percent change2
Oct.
to
Nov.
1965
+0.5
+1.5
+0.7
+0.2
-5.5
+11.1
-0.5
0.0
-42.9
Nov.
to
Dec.
1965
0,0
-8.0
+3.5
0.0
-4,2
Dec.
'65 to
Jan.
1966
0.0
(NA)
+ 1.2
(NA)
+11.2
209
212
206
222
5.0
4.2
+0.6
-1.4
+2. a
-7.8
22.42
r22.39
r4.32
r23.26
r4.50
P23.5B
P4.38
3.8
4.2
2.3
2.8
+0.9
+0.9
-0.1
+1.6
+3.9
+4.2
+1.4
-2.7
60.33
r5.05
64.36
P5.27
9.3
4.7
9.2
3.3
8.1
+2.4
+1.1
+8.1
-0.3
-1.6
(NA)
+6,7
+4.4
(NA)
(NA)
5.3
3.9
0.7
2.5
+0.8
+10,9
+22.2
+12.9
+3.4
+0.6
-2.4
-92.1
-20.0
-12,6
+1.8
+0.7
+4.0
4.25
60.49
5.13
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
10.4
1,380
111.1
r!04.6
16,744
85.67
rl,531
113.1
r!05.3
17,418
66.65
rl,729
rll6.9
105.9
16,999
128.06
pi, 511
p!07.1
111.67
18.7
30.7
-0.3
-0.1
-0.1
-8.8
35
40
48
37
12.3
16.3
-2.2
-H.3
+1,0
+0.2
-2.0
(NA)
-0.3
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
r!05.4
rl05.1
106.1
P105.1
PI. 73
93.32
(NA)
7.2
3.6
0.8
2.5
5.6
0.6
6.0
1.0
0.7
3.1
4.3
0.8
2.5
1.6
+0.7
+0,8
2.3
2.0
+0.4
+2.5
+0.3
-a. 4
(MA)
(NA)
+12. 8
+22.9
+1.0
-0.9
-0.5
+1.7
+2.0
+4.0
(NA)
+0.1
+0,5
(NA)
Percent
1941-43=10...
Ann. rate,
bil. dol
91.39
do
+8.2
r+10.2
p+14.2
(NA)
3.6
4.4
do
+0.9
r+1.0
p+1.5
(NA)
1.5
1.6
45
50
48
48
6.5
5.7
-1.5
+11.1
-4.0
do
63
63
63
68
5.3
2.5
+0.4
0.0
0.0
+7.9
do
60
66
72
74
7.5
5.8
+0.9
+10.0
+9.1
+2.8
+1.28
115.0
r+0.78
115.5
r+1.12
117.1
p+0.92
120,5
0.48
61,001
r68,010
4.3
2.1
r6l,472
r68,641
4.2
2.0
r6l,865
r68,95S
4.1
1.8
.... do . .
2.7
1957-59=100,,,
168
.... do ... r!45.1
Ann. rate,
bil. dol
6
do . .
49 GNP in current
dollars
6
57. Final sales
. do
51. Bank debits, all SMSA's except N.Y
do
. 3,068.9
52. Personal income
do
541.3
53. Labor income in mining, mfg., constr . . .
do
143.6
54. Sal es of retail stores
Mil. dol
r24,217
55. Wholesale prices, except farm products
and foods
1957-59^100 ..
102.8
2.6
2.6
181
r!46.4
186
r!48.5
Percent
Bil. dol
1957-59=100 .,.
(NA)
92.15
r+10.1
0.0
0.0
(NA)
0.0
+0.05
-0.50
1.1
+0.7
+0.4
+0.34
+1.4
-0 . 20
1.3
p62,lll
69,286
4.0
1.9
0.3
0.4
3.9
5.4
0.4
0.4
2.9
5.8
+0.4
+0.3
+1.5
+2.7
+0.8
+0.9
+2.3
+4.8
+0.6
+0.5
+2.4
+10.0
+0 . 4
+0.15
2.6
4.2
2.7
+2.2
+3.7
3.0
1.0
3.4
0.8
+2.5
+0.7
+7.7
+0.9
0.0
+2.8
+1.4
1.2
1.5
1.3
1.5
2.0
1.9
+1.5
+2.0
+1.9
+1.9
+2.3
+2.0
1.6
0.5
0.8
0.9
1.9
0.7
0.7
1.0
+1.1
+0.6
+0.6
+0.7
+3.6
+0.9
+1.4
n o
n o
4-fl
0.33
+2.9
NBER ROUGHLY COINCIDENT
INDICATORS
41. Employees in nonagri. establishments . .
42. Total nonagricultural employment
43. Unemployment rate, total
40. Unemployment rate, married males
45. Avg. weekly insured unemploy. rate,
State
46. Help-wanted advertising
47. Industrial production 6
50. GNP in 1958 dollars
Thous
do ....
Percent
do
P184
P149.9
r624.4
r697 . 2
r687.1
3,178.9
546.1
145.6
r 24, 640
im.?
3,249.6 p3,198.1
r550.9
P551.6
r!46.9
P147.5
r 24, 793 p24,855
im i
nim /
1
+1 . 7
j..n i
+2.2
+0.9
+0.9
+0.6
n T
+2,4
-5.6
0.0
-1.1
+0.9
-1,6
+0.1
+0 . 4
+0.2
j..r\
",i
bed
TABLE
BASIC DATA
FEBRUARY 1966
CHANGES OVER 4 LATEST MONTHS—Continued
Average percent change2
Basic data1
Series
(See complete titles and sources on
back cover)
Unitof
measure
Oct.
1965
Nov.
1965
Dec.
1965
Jan.
1966
1953 to Jan. '65
to date
1965
{without (without
signp sign) *
Jan. '65
to date
(with
sign)5
Current percent change2
Oct.
to
Nov.
1965
Nov.
to
Dec.
1965
+4.0
0.0
-0.5
+0.8
Dec.
'65 to
Jan.
1966
NBER LAGGING INDICATORS
61. Business expenditures,
new plant and
equipment6.
62. Labor cost per unit of output, mfg
68. Labor 6cost per dollar of real corporate
GNP
64. Book value of mfrs.' inventories
65. Book value of mfrs.' inventories of
finished goods
66. Consumer installment debt
67. Bank rates on short-term business
loans*
Ann. rate,
bil dol
1957-59-100 ..
r98.6
a54.85
r98.6
do . . .
Bil. dol
66^6
r67.2
22.7
64,803
r22.9
65,460
do
Mil. dol
3.2
0,6
3.8
0.5
+3.8
P98.9
p67.9
(NA)
0.8
0.5
0.5
0.7
+0.5
+0.7
(NA)
+0.9
+1.0
(NA)
P23-1
66,107
(NA)
(NA)
0.6
0.8
0.5
1.0
+0.3
+1.0
+0.9
+1.0
+0.9
+1.0
(NA)
(NA)
2.0
2.0
+2.0
4.4
3.9
4.3
8.2
6.8
13.3
+1.3
-1.2
2.5
27.4
3.4
26.8
+11.4
p-45
13.9
24.5
22.5
98
7.9
15.9
12.8
44
98.1
(NA)
Percent
5.27
0.0
+5.4
OTHER SELECTED U.S. SERIES
82 Federal cash payments to public
83 Federal cash receipts from public
84. Federal cash surplus or deficit 7
95. Balance, Federal
income and product
account 6 ' 7
90 Defense Dept oblig procurement
91 Defense Dept obligations total
92 Military contract awards in LJ S
99. New orders, defense
products
93. Free reserves*7
85 Change in money supply
Ann. rate,
bil. dol
do
do
do
Mil do! ...
do
do
Bil. dol
Mil. dol
Ann. rate,
percent
58. Change in 7money supply and time
deposits
110 Total private borrowing 6
Ill
112
113
114
115
116
117
. . . do . .
Ann. rate,
mil dol
6
do
Corporate gross savings 7
Change business loans
Ann. rate,
bil. dol
Change consumer installment debt 7 . . . ..... do
Treasury bill rate*
Percent
do
Treasury bond yields x
,
^
Corporate bond yields*
do
Municipal bond yields*
118 Mortgage yields *
86. Exports, excluding military aid
87 General imports
88 Merchandise trade balance 76 7
89. U.S. balance of payments ' :
a Liquidity balance basis 8
b Official settlements basis
81 Consumer prices
94 Construction contracts value
96. Unfilled orders, dur. goods indus9
97. Backlog of capital appro., mfg.
do
Mil. dol
do
do
1,733
1,212
1,882
(NA)
4,962
2,566
3.28
-149
4,896
2,679
r2.57
-82
5,669'
2,915
r2.57
r-11
(NA)
(NA)
+9.48
+0.72
+12.36
p+7.92
3.11
8.17
+0.47
-8.76 +11.64
-4.44
+12.96
+7.80
+12.36
p+8.04
2.52
3.94
-0.20
-5.16
-4.32
11.5
4.3
14.5
1.1
+5.8
+0.7
+21.6
+1.2
(NA)
4.60
4-43
4.92
3.52
1.39
0.87
6.7
1.6
1.4
2.5
3.29
0.71
2.1
0.6
1.0
1.6
+0.09
-0.02
+1.6
+0.6
+0.9
+1.2
5.70
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
0.1
3.8
3.0
58.4
0.4
12.2
8.8
201.1
341
(NA)
618
763
+86
+143
-223 -1,467
0.2
6.6
1.4
6.6
0.2
4.7
1.3
7.8
+0.2
+1.1
+1.3
+7.8
126.4
122.5
-3.9
p!47.4
P125.2
p-22.2
P3.36
p72,972
p56,244
+5.33
+7.07
4.03
4.28
4.69
3.40
+0.32
+7.88
4.08
4.34
4.75
3.46
5.49
5.51
r2,341.6 r2,408.2
r2,005.9 rl,903.3
1+335.7 r+504.9
do
..... do
1957-59-100 . .
do
Bil. dol
do
+16.6
+2.2
-18.3
146.1
128.7
-17.4
(NA)
.
+17.6
+11.9
-8.2
124.2
115.0
-9.2
+10.84
+7.76
4.36
4-43
4.90
3.54
5.62
2,355.8
2,034.6
+321.2
p+13.46
p-388
p-1,249
110.3
147
60.66
110.6
141
r6l.44
111.0
153
r62.56
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
P63.49
+2.1
-3.2
-13.5
-4.8
+13.5
(NA)
-30.1 +55.3
+3.1
-1.3
+6.3
+4.4
+4.3 -21.6
'-12
+67
(NA)
(NA)
+15.8
(NA)
+8.8
0.0 +30.7
+ 71
-34
+4.56
-5.01 +10.52 +2.62
+0.81 -0.12
(NA)
+1.2
+6.9
+5.5
0.0
+2.1
+1.4
+3.2
+1.3
+0.4
-0.6
+1.8
+2.3
+2.0
+0.4
+0.4
+8.1
-2.2
+2.8
+6.9
+5.5
-5.1
+27.2 (-169.2 -183.7
+0.3
-4.1
+1.3
+0.4
+8.5
+1.8
(NA)
+1.4
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
+1.5
r = revised; p - preliminary; e = estimated; a = anticipated; NA - not available. 1 Series are seasonally adjusted except for those series, indicated by an asterisk (*),
that appear to contain no seasonal movement. See additional basic data and notes in table 2. 2 To facilitate interpretations of cyclical movements, those series that usually
fall when general business activity rises and rise when business falls are inverted so that rises are shown as declines and declines as rises (see series 3,4, 5, 14, 15, 40, 43,
and 45). Percent changes are calculated in the usual way but the signs are reversed; see footnote 7 for other "change" qualifications.
^This average is based on month-tomonth
(or quarter-to-quarter) changes without regard to sign. The period varies among the series, covering 1953-65 for most series. Average computed without regard to sign.
5
Average computed with regard to sign. Quarterly series. Figures are placed in the middle month of quarter.
Since basic data for this series are expressed in plus
or
8
minus amounts, the changes are month-to-month (or quarter-to-quarter) differences expressed in the same, unit of measure
as the basic data, father than in percent.
This
9
balance represents a provisional estimate by the Department of Commerce on the basis of official settlements.
Figures are placed in the last month of quarter.
BASIC DATA
FEBRUARY
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 TO PRESENT
NBER Leading Indicators
1. Avjj, workweek, prod, wkrs,, mfg. (hours) ;
2. Accession rate, mfg. (per 100 employees)
30, Nonagri. placements, all Indus, (mous.)
3. Layoff rate, mfg. (per 100 employeesinverted scale)
4. T^mp. layoff, all Indus, ^thous.-inverted
scale. MCD moving avg.-5 term)
5. Ayg. weekly initial claims, State unempl.
Jnpr. (thous.-inveited scale)
i
1966
bed
bed
CHART
fEBRUARY
BASIC DATA
7966
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 TO
PRESENT-CONTINUED
NBER Leading Indicators—Continued
6. New orders, dur. goods Indus, (bil. dot.)
10. Contracts and orders, plant and equip, (bil.
111. New capital appropriations,';mfg., Q (bil. dor)
7. Private nonfarm housing starts (ann.rate, im ilion*.
- '- -tth
29. New bldg. permits, private pousing units
(iSdexTi957-59=IOOr '
BASIC DATA
FEBRUARY
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 TO PRESENT—Continued
NBER Leading Indicators—Continued
siness formation (1957-59=1
!
!
ew bus, incorporations (thous.)
arge bus. failures (no.
nverted (scale. MCD
1966
bed
bed
FEBRUARY
BASIC DATA
1966
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 TO PRESENT—Continued
NBER Leading Indicators—Continued
profits to incone origi
dustries, Q (percent)
CHART
BASIC DATA
FEBRUARY
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 TO PRESENT —Continued
NBER Leading Indicators—Continued
14
21. Change in bus. inventories, all Indus., Q (ann. rate, bil. dol.)
20. Change in book value, mfrsf' inventories of
materials \
supplies (ann. rate, bil. dol.
MCD movi
j
j 37: Purchased material^, percent reporting higher inventories
^\
;
!
'. Buying policy, prod, mtls., percent reporting commitments 60 days or longer
J_..
—i,,-
1966
bed
bed
FEBRUARY 7966
BASIC DATA
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 TO PRESENT—Continued
NBER Roughly Coincident Indicators
rTWgTwe
iLJ^eccent-inverlei^ca
CHART
BASIC DATA
FEBRUARY 1966
bed
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 TO PRESENT-CONTINUED
B
NBER Roughly Coincident Indicators—Continued
(May) p.)
(to.) (left.)
f
47. Industrial product-ion (index: 1957-59=10
50. G|NP in 1958 dollars, Q |ann. rate,
bLdol.)
„_
49. GNP in current dLllars, Q (ann. rate, biljd
J
.jJ-.-Uii-'U!4iU'J'
'Jul-
5liJuit±iluj(U!.li!!lkui;!l)JUlj;ilj!|i|
bed
FEBRUARY
7966
BASIC DATA
CHART
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 TO PRESENT —Continued
NBER Roughly Coincident Indicators—Continued
debris, aH^SMSA's except
52. personal income
tana, rate, fail.
53. Labor income in mining,
55. Wholesale prices exc.
=_-
=
!_-__
130
-^
120
«
-i
CHART
BASIC DATA
FEBRUARY 1966
bed
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 TO PRESENT—Continued
NBER Lagging Indicators
60
50
!
61. Bus. expend., new plant and equip., Q (ann. rate, bil. do).)
62. |Labor cost per unit of output, rrjfg, (index: 1957^59=100)
Cost per unit of output
68. ijabor cob per dol. of real corp, GNP, Q (index: 1957-59=100)
^ Book yalye of mfrs.' inventories (biL dol.)
|
65. Book value of mfrs.' inventories,! finished goods (bil.
66. Consumer installment debt (bil.
dol.)
67. Bank ratfes on short-terrrt bus. loans, Q (percent)
dol.)
40
2
30
1
20
110
105 _
100 +
95 "§
90
">
85
bed
CHART
BASIC DATA
FEBRUARY 1966
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 TO PRESENT—Continued
Other Selected U.S. Series
I:
i
ul ,
82, Fed^^x&h payments to public,!ann.
!
MCD! movina ava.-6 term)
lidoi. ! W-^JW.«P, I
^^r^iTinTiT
r
or detlclt
]95
J5ur|)lu^
or
deficit,' P
fed.
j'z?L^
7 L
;
"r"
""" "• ~'"PJiL.
'ir.""."'.'./.""^"ri""/^^
f
p/oiluct acct., Q |a|in
±:^fcjTBrt S -J
iTf'^nn^r u
rH^iU 5
moving avg.-6 term) i
!
"
4
BASIC DATA
FEBRUARY 1966
bed
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 TO PRESENT—Continued
Other Selected U.S. Series—Continued
20
L,+1.0-
|93. Fret reserves (bit. dol}
[85. CMnge in jfnoney supply {|mn.*>ot|, percent
MCD miving av^. -6
lerm)
Change in money supply affef time (
(ann. rate, percent. MCD moving avlj. -6
;i
i
tWm)
i|
Corporate gross, savings
12. Change in Dusiness loans (qnn. rate, bil. do I.
MCD moving avg.-5 term)
;
] /
(13. Change in Consumer installment
debt (ann, rate, bil. dol.)
;
L
:
-
A
i
bed
FEBRUARY
BASIC DATA
7966
CHART
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 TO PRESENT—Continued
Other Selected U.S. Series—Continued
114 Treasury bill rule (percent)
LJ 2
1i
V—
^
idiiliik uliiMii uMijiti
1
II
iJUMiii u
1
i, j
u
21
BASIC DATA
bed
fEBRUARY 1966
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 TO PRESENT-Continued
Other Selected U.S. Series—Continued
[
<M
• • - i ' , <
Generbl
MCD (noving
i
•i
JJ Ml!n Ill
1 i ij • T~T i i; ' 'i
1
ance of payments, Q (bil. dol.
™
orliqyidtty bajante basis
,
intTex: 957-59=TOO)
S
Ij
1
nstruct on
'
..c.orrf
MCD moving
1
i
97nj»acVfog of cop. (|ppropn6t
j'iKtoy to Bsafl Osiris 1 ad 2,"
bed
CHART
FEBRUARY 7966
BASIC DATA
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 TO PRESENT-Continued
International Comparisons
U21^_W«t^erbiany (indexLJ957-59=lQQ)
uliiliJii^
^(]&\mK?'L$ '*flfcinoVxi£>j£ViY^ffi'-fl'l..£^Vf^/^fSi^.^C^l1fr"1TAV|
BASIC DATA
FEBRUARY 1966
bed
LATEST DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES
NBER Leading Indicators
Year and month
1. Average
workweek of
production
workers,
manufacturing
(Hours)
2. Accession
rate, manufacturing
(Per 100
employees)
3. Layoff rate,
30. Nonagricultural placements, manufacturing
al! industries1
(Thous.)
(Per 100
employees)
4. Number of persons on temporary
layoff, all industries
5. Average
weekly initial
claims for unemployment insurance, State
programs 3
6. Value of manufacturers' new
orders, durable
goods industries
24. Value of manufacturers' new
orders, machinery
and equipment
industries
(Thous.)
(Thous.)
(Bil.dol.)
(Bil. dot.)
1962
July
40.5
August
September
October
November
December
4-0.3
40.6
40.2
40.4
40 2
4 2
4 0
4 0
3 9
3.8
3.8
557
553
551
557
565
543
2.1
2.4
1.9
2.0
2.0
1.9
128
127
127
125
133
120
303
305
300
304
299
310
16 91
16.59
16.55
17.29
16.73
17.33
3.07
2.94
2,98
3.05
3.16
3.07
1.9
1.8
1.9
1.8
152
121
107
138
95
92
131
130
108
135
134
97
310
301
288
293
288
284
281
•290
285
282
276
301
18.47
18 23
18.78
19.04
18.74
17.68
18.28
18.06
18,24
18.62
18.11
17.97
3.25
3.21
3.22
3.35
3.42
3.29
3.33
3.31
3.42
3.44
3.27
3.61
?£/
1 q 7;
P70
277
265
262
iQ 'in
19 26
1
1
1
3
1963
January
February
March
,
April
May. . . ."
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1964
January
February
March
April
May.
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
40.4
40.3
40.4
40.2
40.4
40.5
40.4
40.4
40.6
40,7
40.5
40.6
3.8
3.8
3.8
4.1
3.8
3.8
3.9
3.8
3.9
3.9
3.7
4.0
552
554
555
557
546
545
541
543
553
575
533
525
40 1
40 6
40.6
40.8
40.6
40 7
40 7
40.8
40 6
40 7
40.9
41 2
3 8
4 0
4 0
3 9
3.8
4 1
511
532
523
522
529
518
18
18
1 8
16
17
16
L 0
571
1
Q
4 0
507
518
Si /
1
5
1
5
L 1
/ n
511
CO/
T 6
1 S
16
1965
January
February
March
April
May.
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
41. P
41.2
41.3
41.0
41 1
41.0
41.0
41 0
40 9
41 2
41 4
/I /
4.0
4.0
4.3
3 9
4 1
4 5
4 1
4 2
4 5
4 5
05.0
p4 6
522
5/Q
SP#
1 /
r>jl7Q
p/ q
pi
p7
1 QA
1 L
-\ t
248
077
21 13
^ sn
pi
ejqc
1
ip/
110
117
pq7
pp ny
I
y
Cjqq
1
/
1 O9
ppy
pn qq
c;/ o
1
/
140
121
110
a/
pp/
pT
p^l
pp
pn
p/ 3
p-|
c-i
1 Q
/ n
1.9
1.8
1.9
2.1
1.8
1,7
1.8
1.7
c
^/1
1 A
£5-37
-1
COQ
G./n
7
1« qJ
1.0J
116
125
98
122
111
121
118
Q~l
121
qp
8Q
I nq
0-1
6?
/i
/6
61
?S7
20 46
1Q Q/
20 02
1 Q*3
1 Q?
9 An
?//
pi
1 77
1 q Q/
q 77
"1 Q Q1
-i q ^.p
1 AQ
q 7q
1Q / S
pn 70
1 AA
q qo
J. y<.
nic
O/Q
26?
oen
pe
7-1
0-1
4
/
D9
ne
f)7
nn
p-i #
P9 i /;
pno
oo .4^
/o
<!<f
J 1,^
4-PP
/ ID
-i (.
4.
/
"1C
4.15
4.25
rOQ
TQ
iv^. jy
1^1
r2j .26
1*4.32
(H]r4 . 50
*;uy
X.I t
rl
^
120
p-i p
C/LO
2OJ3
1771
r^il "3
[HJP-J-O
1 P^
rmpn^
C7pi
(W4^
U\IA;
•vOQ
1966
January
February
March
April
May
June
[Vi]p41 4
(NA)
POO
diiti
f—j ,_.OQ
£TCj
UlJP'O.So
P4.38
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by an asterisk (*). Current high
values are indicated by 0; for series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3, 4, 5r 14,15, 40, 43, and 45), current low values are indicated
by G3. Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e1", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
1
0 = May 1962.
Data exclude Puerto Rico which is included in figures published by source agency.
2
24
bed
BASIC DATA
FEBRUARY 1966
TABLE
LATEST DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES—Continued
NBER Leading Indicators—Continued
Year and month
9. Construction
contracts, commercial and industrial buildings
(Mil. sq. ft.
floor space)
1962
40.56
42.69
40.96
July
August
September
October
November
December.
1963
January
February
March
April
May
June . . . . .
JU|y
August
September
October
November.
December
1964
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1965
January
February
March
April
May
, *
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1966
January. . .
February
March
April
M^y.
June
»..
10. Contracts
and orders for
plant and
equipment
(Bil.dol.)
41. OS
42.20
41.89
44.61
45.11
39.42
40.23
47.00
51.39
45.78
44.93
43.88
50.81
43.73
45.43
3.84
3.82
3.75
3.98
4.28
3.96
3.94
3.91
4.08
4.17
4.32
4.56
51 07
51 05
48 41
53.48
46.22
47.82
52.62
47.72
51.41
53.75
49.61
58.88
4 38
4 14
4.36
4.63
4.64
4.52
4.53
4.51
4.56
4.92
4.94
53
58
5/
64
56
4
4
/
I
c
72
67
#/
Q8
no
6S P#
/
c>-|
55 90
/Q An
AQ / a
5 16
4 90
'5 15
5 13
r5 05
r
\H\p ) 27
An / Q
OU.4V
An
TT
DU OJ
rsiA/ ^A
(Mrt
\
(NA)
(Bil. dol.)
3.72
3.61
3.56
3.66
3.82
3.99
20
12
O/
26
13
11. Newly approved 1. New private
capital appropria- nonfarm dwelling
tions, 1,000 manu- units started
facturing
corporations l
2.81
3.35
2.80
3.30
38- Index of net
business formation
(1957-59=100)
(1957-59-100)
1,409
1,531
1,300
1,410
1,634
1,521
108.7
107.1
109.1
107.2
113.0
112.0
97.7
98.4
98.5
98.5
98.0
98.3
15,171
15,056
15,249
14,892
14,951
14,985
107.98
121.85
106.02
129.87
96.62
99.61
1,285
1 438
1 486
1,652
1 676
111.8
108.2
112.9
113.6
120.0
119-3
116.5
113.5
121.0
123.6
119.9
123,7
98.9
100.2
100.5
99.2
99.6
100.0
100.7
101.7
101.4
101.7
101.4
101.8
14,924
15,390
15,563
15,305
15,682
15,536
15,431
16,093
15,689
16,275
15,759
15,867
146.46
93.05
94.12
88.15
115.05
91.07
144. 50
052.86
94.52
99.92
255.72
87.17
116 8
103 1
102 8
102 9
103.7
105.3
103.9
104.0
103.6
104.8
106.6
105.8
106.8
16 250
16 018
1 *) QQ?
16,180
15,917
15,919
15,979
16,074
16,605
16,493
17,103
17,154
91 69
119 29
110 67
107 10
97.92
136.19
125.14
90.99
118.59
97.98
111.00
126.49
112 9
107 5
IH1107 6
106 1
17 275
1 7 "^AV
84 54
i n7 S7
"17 119
T n j *7
i no.4/
iuy
1 OS ?
1 / A pq
7Q SI
(Ann. rate,
thous.)
1 S50
3.72
i 'i?/
i s??
1 676
1 706
4.10
1
*>Q?
1 ^??
•fTTl "I
ry C. Q
IHJ 1 , t^j
4 39
L 11
(NA)
29. Index of new
private housing
units authorized
by local building
permits
I, /Uo
Icrn
,2 f±
^nA
4.81
-i cr\(L
1 /QA
5.00
1 W3
1 /7S
1 /#Q
1 /,??
1 /QS
4.52
i /An
1 ^7^
/ QQ
." " "
5
-70
...
rm n*! .&n
Qjjp;>
ou
...
fwfli
\™A.)
1 417
1 468
1
/ f.c
1
^?5
I cnn
t
CQQ
1 j 5^V
rsii ?/. 6
121 7
113.6
112.9
115.1
111.5
113.4
109.7
109.1
110.8
105.4
-i n& n
-i -i'o n
vl 1 A Q
i n^ n
T nA #
i nA /
i nA /
i n^ ^
T*I n/ A
T*t n^ "^
in^ Q
-i
-i
plO
7.1
(wn\
\N&)
-i -i ri
/I
i // 7
i no *7
1 /no
1U 7.4
T1U4.
n / T1
-i
/ q f.
1
oc>n
1, JoU
rO 5jji
c on
ri,
-pi 700
— I c -i -i
pi, :>ii
-] piri
/
mi
.1
-1-1-5 n
11^,1
f\rj
13. Number of
new business
incorporations
14. Current
liabilities of
business failures
(Number)
(Mil. dol.)
i A ^n/
i A n/ "3
i ?Q no
i A Am
-ioc AA
i Ajoy
^AQ
ID,
120 64
1
A 7?
Q.^7
J-D,
/
1 7/,lj)o
1 ^S?
1
'1 ?# Q#
i A /44
7X y
lo,
JTTJT 0
/ T O
1 A, QQQ
lo
V77
^^WA;
T\TA^
108
85
66
128
56
67
65
06
111 67
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by an asterisk (*). Current high
values are indicated by (E for series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3, 4,5, 14,15, 40, 43, and 45), current low values are indicated
by0. Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. The "r" indicates revised; (ip"f preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
1
Data prior to 1961 not comparable because of "a change in asset accounting basis in machinery, except electrical, and a recalculation of the seasonal pattern for petroleum and coal products." (See NICE publication, Investment Statistics—Capital Appropriations: First Quarter 1965.)
TABLE
BASIC DATA
FEBRUARY 7966
bed
LATEST DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES—Continued
NBER Leading Indicators—Continued
Year and month
15. Number of
business failures
with liabilities of
$100,000 and over x
16. Corporate
profits after taxes
(Number per
week)
(Ann, rate,
bil.dol.)
17. Ratio, price to
unit labor cost
index, manufacturing
18. Profits (before
taxes) per dollar of
sales, all manufacturing corporations
22. Ratio of profits
to income originating, corporate,
all industries
(1957*59=400)
(Cents)
(Percent)
19. Index of stock 21. Change in
prices, 500 common business inventories
after valuation adstocks*
justment, all industries
(1941-43=10)
(Ann. rate,
bit. dol.)
1962
July
38
August
September
October
November
December
45
31.5
46
42
37
31.8
40
1963
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
49
43
42
40
51
38
39
42
43
42
38
38
1964
January
February
March
April
May.
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
41
41
38
44
39
39
44
40
42
42
42
40
1965
January
February
March
April
May.
June
July
August
September
October
November ..;.....
December
1966
January
February
March
April
May
June
35
40
31.2
32.6
32.8
33.8
36.7
37.0
37.5
37.8
43 6
42
33
47
47
39
/*5
43
35
40
48
37
// -\
ftTi / / *5
(NAl
100.2
100.0
100.7
100.2
100.4
99.9
99 7
100.1
100.5
100.8
101.3
102.2
101.7
100 9
101.0
101.5
100.8
100.8
101.6
101.9
101.3
101.9
101.7
100.8
101.2
101.6
100 8
100 . 6
101.8
102.6
r!02
r!02
r!03
r!03
8
6
3
0
•rim
rirn
•pin/
r*104
r!03
r!05
r!05
U1J106
"3
Q
Q
4
6
4
1
1
p!05 1
8.1
11.2
8.1
11.1
8.1
10.8
8.5
11.2
8.6
11.2
8.8
11.3
9.0
11.9
8.9
11.7
9.0
11.7
8.7
11.7
09 8
13 0
9
-| n Q
Q
Q /
> •.
013 0
56.97
58.52
58.00
56.17
60.04
62.64
65.06
65.92
65.67
68.76
70.14
70.11
69.07
70.98
72.85
73.03
72.62
74.17
76.45
77.39
78.80
79.94
80.72
80.24
83.22
82.00
83.41
84.85
85 44
83.96
86
86
86
87
12
75
83
97
tJQ
Q&
&c
r\/
&/
Q-l
SA
/Q
« .*
rtQ Qrt
oy
. jo
(NA}
QO
1 ^
V^.lP
+5.2
+6.4
+4.5
+4.7
+5.8
+8.1
+3.3
+4.1
+3.8
+7 5
+8 8
+6 L
+7 6
. *.
OQ
7-L. jy
Q-|
CMAI
®r+10 1
on
T>.
7l. fj
RTiQ j^ .^JA.
o
LtLjy
7<d* 74
3QQ
r j i
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by an asterisk (*). Current high
values are indicated by ® for series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3, 4, 5, 14,15, 40, 43r and 45), current low values are indicated
by 0. Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
1
0 = February 1962.
2
Average for February 16, 17, and 18.
26
bed
BASIC DATA
FEBRUARY 1966
TABLE
LATEST DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES—Continued
NBER Leading Indicators—Continued
Year and month
1962
31. Change in
book value of manufacturing and
trade inventories,
total
20. Change in
book value of manufacturers' inventories of materials
and supplies l
37. Purchased
materials, percent
reporting higher
inventories
26. Production
materials, percent
reporting commitments 60 days or
longer*
32. Vendor performance, percent
reporting slower
deliveries*
(Ann. rate,
bil. do!.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Percent
reporting)
(Percent
reporting)
(Percent
reporting)
JU|y
+3 9
August
September
October
November
DBcember
1963
January
February
March
April
May
,
June
+2.0
July .
..
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1965
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1966
January
February
March
April
May.
June
(Bil. dol.)
23. Index of industrial materials
prices*
(1957-59=100)
44
58
44
+1.2
+5.1
-2,4
-0.3
+1.8
-0.2
+0.5
-1.7
45
43
46
50
49
52
52
55
52
5"1
44
48
48
48
48
-0.25
-0.60
-0.36
+0.21
-0.40
+0.91
94.2
94.5
94.0
94.9
96.4
+3.1
+2.5
+3.0
+4.6
+2.7
+5.1
+0.6
+0.4
-0.2
+0.9
-0.3
+0.7
0 5
+1 7
+5.6
+7.1
+9.6
+7.2
-0.4
+1.7
-0.2
50
55
54
53
52
57
54
55
56
53
54
55
50
52
54
60
58
54
42
48
52
48
48
46
+0.96
+0.68
+0.94
+0.85
+0.33
-0.^8
-0 54
-0.05
+0.38
+0.10
-0.09
-0.40
95.5
95.1
94.4
94.5
95.2
93.9
+6 0
+1 8
47
48
47
43
55
56
55
50
49
46
43
43
+5 1
+2 3
+3 7
-1 9
-0 5
0 0
-1.0
-0.1
-0.7
-1.6
+1.3
+2.6
+4.3
+3.5
+2.0
53
54
56
59
58
59
58
58
61
60
64
65
55
54
60
60
63
55
59
65
74
72
70
66
+0.40
+0.57
+0 16
+1.04
+0.38
+0.81
+1.26
+0.06
+0.77
+1.00
+0.27
+0.55
98.5
+8.0
+4.3
+2.2
+1,2
+2.9
42
50
54
53
51
55
57
56
60
58
60
58
60
61
57
061
60
58
57
60
^S
45
50
48
65
65
68
67
65
62
62
63
61
63
63
63
68
72
66
72
70
66
6?
6A
6?
60
66
+0 32
+0 81
+0 84
+0 50
+0 58
+0 38
+0 32
+1 24
0+1 28
r+0 78
70
r+1 12
(771 77
p+0 92
+ 5.6
+ 5.5
August
September
October
November
December
1964
January
25. Change in unfilled orders,
durable goods
industries
+10.7
+0.4
+9.4
0+14.6
+11 2
+5 0
+13 8
+8.7
+9.4
+6.1
+11.6
-0 7
+1 0
+0
+2
+%
+1
0
+0
4
5
?
5
5
7
+8.1
+~\ /
+3 4
+ 3 "l
+0 9
r+1 0
p+1 5
+8.2
r+10.2
p+14.2
(NA)
(NA)
48
H368
+0 / /
95.8.
94 2
94.2
94.1
96.3
97.3
97.7
98 5
98 9
102.4
100.9
101.4
102.5
105.7
108.2
112.0
113.2
112.5
110 6
110 7
113 2
116 7
116.9
115 3
• 114 6
115 2
114 8
115 0
115 5
117 1
Q3120.5
8
123. 3
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by an asterisk (*), Current high
values are indicated by GO for series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3, 4,5, 14,15, 40, 43, and 45), current low values are indicated
b y ® . Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
I
(H] = December 1961.
2
Average for February 14, 15, and 16.
TABLE
BASIC
DATA
FEBRUARY 1966
bed
LATEST DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES—Continued
NBER Roughly Coincident Indicators
Year and month
41. Number of employees, in nonagricultural establishments
(Thous.)
August
September
October
November
December
1963
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1964
January
February
March
April
May.
June
July
August
September
October
November ... .
December
(Thous.)
Revised 2
1962
JU|y
42. Total non43. Unemployment
agricultural employ- rate, total
ment, labor force
survey
(Percent)
Revised 2
40. Unemployment 45- Average
weekly insured
rate, married
unemployment rate,
males
State programs1
(Percent)
(Percent)
Revised
46. Index of helpwanted advertising
in newspapers
47. Index of industrial production
(1957-59-100)
(1957-59-100)
2
no
55,637
55,703
55,796
55,830
55,879
55,880
62,547
63,018
63,161
63,110
62,919
63,334
5 5
5.7
5.6
5.4
5.8
5.5
3 6
3 7
3.5
3 5
3.5
3 5
4 2
4 4
4.4
4 5
4.6
4.7
55,897
56,027
56,142
56,353
56,488
56,562
56,670
56,727
56,856
57,008
57,038
57,205
63,086
63 , 219
63,462
63,716
63 , 579
63,791
63,974
64,089
64,306
64,245
64,347
64,399
5 7
5 9
5 7
5 7
5.9
5.7
5.7
5.5
5.5
5.6
5.8
5.5
3 7
3 7
3 6
3 4
3.4
3.2
3.2
3.1
3.0
3.1
3.3
3 3
4 8
4 6
4 4
4 2
4.2
4.1
4.1
4.1
4.0
4.0
4.1
4.3
el 07
el 09
e!08
57,252
37,606
57,694
57,781
57,864
58,033
58,190
58,301
58,499
58,370
58,879
59,163
64 621
65,084
65,208
65,765
65,774
65 , 472
65,581
65,682
65,697
65,730
66 133
66,426
5 6
5.4
5.4
5.4
5.1
5.4
5 0
5.1
5.1
5.2
4 9
5 0
3 1
2 9
2.9
2.8
2 6
2 8
2 7
2.6
2 8
3 0
2 4
2 6
4 3
4 0
3.8
3.8
3 6
3 6
3 6
3.5
3 4
3 4
3 /
3 6
116
117
118
120
118
121
I?/
123
126
127
66,719
66,718
66 895
66,919
66 947
67 434
67 Q7Q
67 815
4 8
5.0
4 7
4.8
4 6
4 7
4 5
4 5
2
2
2
2
7
6
5
5
3 /,
3 3
3i
3 1
1 37
1/5
148
1/3
P
*5
1 /£;
~i > £
67 87Q
L L
?
?
3
3
?
68 010
68 641
68 QSS
4 3
4 2
/ n
nriAQ 9&A
[HJ4- U
108
107
107
107
el 07
109
105
104
109
105
107
111
112
118
1 3/
"I 37
119 0
119 0
119.7
119 1
119 8
119 4
119 8
120 6
121 9
122 7
1 24 . 4
125.6
125.6
125.4
125.7
126.1
126.1
127 0
1 ?7 Q
1?8 4
129 3
130 8
131 8
132 0
133 3
134.0
134.0
131 6
135 4
138.1
1965
January
February
March
April
May.
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1966
January
February
March
April
May
June
59,295
59,581
59,814
59,846
60 , 032
60 , 290
60,501
60 621
60 756
61,001
r6l,472
r6l 865
£ip62 2,11
mi n
? /
? 3
2
2
2
2
[H]!
6
2
1
0
8
-> o
1.9
Q
9
0
0
Q
2 7
2 6
9 A
nrto .0
A
U±I<
1 3& A
T 3Q
n / ~\
&
I/O
17
*\ 1 c
14 2
"i / /
1 CO
"I
,15^
1 An
1 A&
1 &-\
fwll £}£
plH4
9
1 /n 7
1/0 Q
144.
/ J
J
T / 0
.L^J
n
*£
K
144.
f
,5
y. "I / C
=t
I .145 . .1,
rO / A
/
T»T / S .^5
ri4o
[njpl49.9
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain no seasonal movement Unadjusted series are indicated by an asterisk (*). Current high
values are indicated by (E! for series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3, 4,5, 14,15, 40, 43, and 45), current low values are indicated
by (E). Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. The 'V indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
x
Data exclude Puerto Rico which is included in figures published by source agency.
See "New Features and Changes for This Issue," page iii.
2
bed
BASIC DATA
FEBRUARY 1966
TABLE
LATEST DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES—Continued
NBER Roughly Coincident Indicators—Continued
Year and month
1962
50. Gross
49. Gross
national product national product
in 1958 dollars in current
dollars
(Ann. rate,
bit. do!.)
(Ann. rate,
bii. dol.)
57. Final sales 51. Bank debits, 52. Personal
(series 49 minus all SMSA's exincome
series 21)
cept New York
(224 SMSA's)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
July
August
September
October
November
December
1963
January
February
March
April
May.
.
.. .
June
July
August •
....
September
October
November
December
1964
January
533.6
564.4
559.2
538.5
572.0
565.6
541.2
577 o
572 5
544.9
553.7
560.0
c.^7
I
583 1
593 1
603.6
614 o
Marrh
April
May
, *
June
575.9
624.2
578 4
587 3
595 5 ,
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September .
October
November
December
1966
January
February
March
April
May
June
582.6
584.7
597 7
634.8
641.1
657 6
1
0
8
7
0
0
1 ?3 3
20 71 Q
100 9
20 666
20 426
100 8
y 73 ?
i ?3 y
i ?/ z
125 1
PO 71 f,
1 OO Q
/7/ 7
1 ?*5 7
?0 ^8
/7# Q
127 1
?1 01 Q
100 9
im i
im i
456 7
/*)? ?
460 o
/63 1
464 8
/ fV7 1
/6Q 3
9
8
9
9
8
7
20 276
100
100
100
100
5
5
5
4
PO 900
1 00
£>
20 486
1 OO £
20 387
20 37Z
20 350
/en
9
-i oA c;
pi
PI T^T
<-J-)JJJ
* **
a
*| <-)rj Q
i</.y
-i ort -2
1/CO. JJ
'51 QCJEJ
*d-L,2oo
pi / c;A
4
2
8
5
0
5
4
1
4
3
1
9
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
620 1
...
631 o
633 6
648 8
668 . 8
662 4
613 0
681 5
671 9
(H|r697 2
120
120
120
120
122
123
456 6
/S/ Q
100
100
100
100
100
100
/ &V o
4oj.^
/ $.1 ^2
4o4.
487 7
491 2
/qp a
/Q6 1
499 5
501 7
502 8
506 6
512 0
[S]r687 1
0
CQO
693
688
607
746
681
755
771
730
803
8
4
4
7
7
9
5
3
5
(1957-59=100)
8
7
5
9
7
7
p
con a
55. Index of
wholesale prices
except farm
products and foods
118
118
119
118
119
119
444 6
447 0
447.9
450 4
452 6
? *S71 5
603 5
rjn]r624,4
2
9
2
5
?
2
0
1
0
5
4
2
//3 /
(Mil. dol.)
Revised 1
1Q 6^8
1Q 671
19 8AA
19,837
20 112
?0 ?S3
f\~\ n "7
July .
August
September
October
November
December
1965
January
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil, dol.)
2 311 3
2 268 8
2,236 7
2,340.7
2,351 5
2 324 9
2 416
2 345
2,357
2 472
? /1Q
2 368
2 561
? /63
2 559
2 605
2 527
2 6lO
53. Labor income 54. Sales of
in mining, manu- retail stores
facturing, and
construction
2 803 3
2 845 1
2 923 8
2 962 0
2,871 5
3,019 4
3 021 0
3 018 8
3 022 6
3,068 9
3 178 Q
[Hj3 349 6
515
515
517
520
525
528
530
532
545
541
546
r550
p3 ]_9g i
(E]p551 6
1?Q *5
1 30 3
I on o
1 31
5
132 6
O,9'7
21 703
pT 7QC>
21 872
22 ?6S
1361
?? 3^
21 /3?
21 710
1 37 3
22 757
137 3
22,933
23,168
22 884
22 829
23 33A
23 348
23 658
23 591
23 763
24 217
24 640
24 793
1338
132 6
138 4
1 3Q 7
138 8
139 6
140 4
1 /I Z
142 1
142 2
143 6
1/56
T~l y £ i
Q
iTHnl / 7 ^
[H]p24,855
1 00 Q
im Q
1 ro
Q
1U1. ^
101 2
101 1
im n
m p
101 2
m q
101 5
1 01 f\
101 7
101 7
101
102
102
102
102
102
102
102
102
103
103
9
1
2
3
6
6
8
9
8
2
1
IHIpl03 4
^103 *5
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by an asterisk (*), Current high
values are indicated by 0 for series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3, 4,5, 14, 15, 40, 43, and 45), current low values are indicated
by ®. Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
^-See "New Features and Changes, for This Issue, t r page ill.
s
Week ended February 15.
29
TABLE
BASIC DATA
FEBRUARY 1966
bed
LATEST DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES—Continued
NBER Lagging Indicators
Year and month
61. Business expenditures on new
plant and equipment, total
62. Index of labor
cost per unit of
output, manufacturing
68. Index of labor
cost per dollar of
real corporate GNP
64. Book value of
manufacturers'
inventories
65. Book value of
manufacturers'
inventories of finished goods
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(1957-59=100)
(1957-59=100)
(Bil. dol.)
(Bil. dol.)
66. Consumer installment debt
(Mil. dol.)
67. Bank rates on
short-term business
loans, 19 cities*
(Percent)
1962
Julv
August
September
October
November
December
38.35
37.95
100.7
100 9
100.4
100.6
100.3
100,7
56.9
103.3
103.3
57.0
57.3
57.4
57.6
57.8
19.5
19.5
19.7
19.7
19.8
19.8
45,200
45,588
45,838
46,206
46,689
47,174
4.99
5.02
1963
January
February
March
April
May
, *
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
36.95
38.05
40.00
4.1.20
100 6
100.2
99 7
99.5
99.3
98.7
99.3
100.1
99.7
99.8
100.0
100.0
104.0
104.2
103.9
104.7
57 9
58.0
58 1
58.3
58.5
58.7
58.9
58.9
59.1
59.3
59.8
60.1
19 9
60 0
60 1
60 3
60 5
60 5
60 4
60 5
60 8
6l 0
61 8
62 4
62 9
21
21
21
21
21
21
21
21
21
21
21
22
2
4
4
6
6
5
6
6
6
8
9
2
63 2
63 4
63 7
oo
??
22
??
22
/
/
5
3
4
OO
*2
20.0
20 0
20,0
20.1
20.3
20.3
20.4
20.6
20.6
21.0
21.2
47,659
48,154
48,631
49,152
49 , 593
50,079
50,588
51,069
51,410
51,941
52,324
52,784
5.00
5.01
5.01
5.00
1964
January
February
March
April
May.
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
99 3
4? 55
43.50
99 i
99.7
99 3
99.3
104 2
104.6
100 0
99.7
45.65
47.75
99 5
100 3
105.1
0101 ?
99 5
98.9
[HJ106 3
53,212
53,791
54,315
54,727
55,220
55 590
56,073
56,508
67 021
4.99
4 99
/ 98
57,431
S7 732
58,292
5 00
1965
January
February
March
April
May.
~,Qrt
49 00
ryo. rjf
-I
ryy .
i
_QQ
105 1
Y.QC* n
ryy .4
64 o
r>QQ 1
60 3*5
June
July
August
ryy. $Q
r»QQ
106 1
r99.0
-pQft "I
ffflSP 75
September
October
November
December
-pQCJ Q
106 2
T*QQ ^
...
•rQ& A
a54 85
-pQd £
QCJ
"I
Vo.l
(NA)
A/
A/
Ac;
A^
66
AA
3
A
/
A
3
A
rA.7 o
mri
oV
IjHj nA'7
ptU .
op £
22 5
22 6
no
7
r22 9
I[y]p,d;}
—l-rtQ'^ .11
%& QAo
6Q 60 3
...
60 240
/ 97
An QS/
...
AT
A9
6?
63
A/
U
A^y
D^A
92?
63T
Pi /
803
/ QQ
4.
yy
...
5 nn
...
65 460
nnAA 1 D7
IHJ ? .O'?
^/
ful ^
1966
January
February
March
April
May.
June
a56 70
•nQ& Q
pyo.y
/1VTA ^
U\IAJ
(Wh\
UMAJ
(fSb\
a58 85
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by an asterisk (*). Current high
values are indicated by (El for series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3, 4,5, 14,15, 40, 43, and 45), current low values are indicated
by 0. Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
30
bed
BASIC DATA
FEBRUARY 1966
TABLE
LATEST DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES—Continued
Other Selected U.S. Series
Year and month
1962
82. Federal cash
payments to the
public
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
-3.1
-0.4
-5.0
-6.6
-8 5
-6.5
112.4
109.6
116.6
113.5
116.3
115 3
120.5
121.9
119.9
'122.0
119.3
1-17.2
108.6
109.9
110.5
108.0
114.0
112 7
112.9
116.5
112.6
114.7
114.9
118.1
-3 8
+0 3
-6.1
5 5
-2 3
2 6
-7 6
-7.3
-7 3
-4.4
+0 9
125 9
119 2
120 4
122.6
119.1
116.7
122.8
121.6
117.9
118.4
112.9
126.5
115.9
120 5
117 1
121.4
108.7
113.8
114.0
111.7
113.0
115.1
114.9
114.5
-10 0
+1 3
-3 3
-1.2
-10.4
-2.9
-8.8
-9.9
-4.9
-3.3
+2.0
-12.0
r!21.7
121.8
117.4
1*125.1
r!28.7
r!33.3
120.2
129.5
137.7
124 2
146 1
126.4
rl!3 8
rl20 2
rl24.6
r!53.4
119 9
rl!9 6
122 1
121 9
121 4
115 0
128 7
122 5
r-7.9
r-1.6
r+7.2
+28.3
r-8.8
r-13.7
+1.9
-7 6
-16 3
July
August
September
October
November
December
1964
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1966
January
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
110.4
107.7
108.4
107.1
110 1
108.4 •
August
September
October
November
December
1963
January
February
March
April
May
-.
June
February ....
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
84. Federal cash
surplus (+) or
deficit (-)
113 5
108 1
113.4113 7
118 6
114 9
July
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1965
January
83. Federal cash
receipts from the
public
nl / 7 /
r\~\ O^ .O<;
pl/O
-5 L
95. Surplus (+) or
deficit (-), Federal
income and product
account
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
-3 9
oo o
P-<d2.2
(Mil. dol.)
1 657
-2.6
-3 2
-2 5
+1 8
+0 6
+1 2
-2 6
-7.6
-3.6
-1.1
+-3 6
+3.8
-2 9
(NA)
(Mil. dol.)
92. Military prime
contract awards to
U.S. business firms
(Mil. dol.)
1,395
1,040
1,675
1,787
1,205
4 517
4,385
3,892
4,535
4,920
4,140
2,017
2,149
2,111
2,983
2,734
1,984
1,586
1 206
1,366
1,215
1,358
1 363
1,132
1 700
• 1,207
2,010
1,094
1,273
4,632
4 137
4,233
4,078
4,507
4,481
4,349
4 580
4,160
5,112
4,093
4,371
2,198
2,435
2,154
1,966
2,240
2 334
2,419
2 733
2,578
2,086
1,681
2,079
1 075
1 843
4 351
2 149
? 689
1 ?37
Q ?
17 /
91. Defense
90. Defense
Department obliga- Department obligations, procurement tions, total
1,389
1,910
1,079
1,494
803
1,141
889
1,089
1,747
1 005
700
1,355
1,444
1 402
1 254
1 128
1 741
1 732
1 733
1 212
1 882
(m\
\JM*W
5 317
/ T 33
4,544
4,818
4,349
4,677
4,237
4,405
3,773
4,228
5,325
4,278
3,839
4,624
4,593
4 630
4 520
4 258
5 ??3
5 276
/ Q6?
/
8Q&
5 669
f •Kt A ^
UMAJ
1
*5Q8
2,508
2,454
1,879
2,904
1,9?6
2,191
1,745
2,008
1,883
1,830
1 628
1,874
2,926
2,025
2,438
2-, 699
2,770
2,465
2 , 566
? 679
2 915
/vf A \
^WA;
March
April
May
June
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by an asterisk (*). Series numbers
are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
31
BASIC DATA
FEBRUARY 1966
bed
LATEST DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES—Continued
Other Selected U.S. Series—Continued
99. New orders,
defense products
93. Free reserves*
(Bit. dol.)
(Mil. dol.)
Year and month
85. Change in
total U.S. money
supply
98. Change in
money supply and
time deposits
(Ann. rate,
mil. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
percent)
(Ann. rate,
percent)
110. Total private
borrowing
111. Corporate
gross savings
112. Change in
business loans
(Ann. rate,
mil. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bit. dol.)
1962
2.07
1.94
1.88
2.09
1.70
2.53
+440
+439
+375
+419
+473
+268
-0.84
-0.84
-1.68
+4.92
+4.08
+4.92
+4.08
+4.56
+9.48
+8.40
+10 . 80
1963
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
2.89
2 09
2.42
1.97
2,40
1.90
2.40
2.36
2.47
1.92
1.97
1.48
+375
+301
+269
+313
+247
+138
+l6l
+133
+91
+94
+33
+209
+4.08
+4.92
+1.56
+4.08
+3.24
+3.96
+6.36
+2.40
+2.40
+ 5.52
+7.08
-0.84
+8.76
+8.76
+7.20
+7.68
+6.24
+7.08
+9.00
+8.88
+6.48
+8 76
+11.04
+4 56
1964
January
February
March
April
May.
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
2.67
2.40
2.18
2.37
2.48
2.34
3.29
1.86
1.98
2.41
1.79
1.87
+175
+89
+99
+167
+82
+120
+135
+83
+89
+106
-34
+168
+3.96
+1.56
+2.40
+3.12
0.00
+7.80
+8.52
+3.84
+8.40
+4.56
+2 28
+4.56
+8.16
+5.88
+4.44
+5.76
+4.92
+9.72
+8.76
+9.12
+9.48
+8.52
+8 04
+8.88
2 37
2 44
2 46
3 24
2 46
2 58
2 62
2 81
3 L^
3 28
r2 57
+103
+ 1?
76
+2
2
+/
+6
8
i1n i i
4-7 Q?
1965
January
February
March
April
May.
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
112
-i nc\
"1 &£*
1 75
1
1 ^A
JO
1 cc
1
/Q
147
flo
r?
^7
T»
11
,-.•3
?A
n
/ ^
, "I 0
28
28
SA
00
16
/ /
i c iA
4-A
i-i o &,r\
, Q
/ /
_i_,n n 8n
i -i o oy
i Q
/ £
if)
70
, 1 o QA
4.7 An
, -1 Q
41,732
43,756
43,236
43,104
4?, 668
51,508
43,820
51,040
45,520
53,892
45,224
47,212
48,656
64,640
49,308
52,664
50,196
58 460
49 412
6"3 376
KR t nn
...
AS Q7?
...
cy
T2n
' **
rrn
7A
, •) 0 •)£..
45,340
QA
4-Q on
O nn
4-1 1
4-1
+2.66
+5.04
August
September
October
November
December
July
0/1
An npn
e e ,f\JJn
yy
poU
•**
+3.85
+2.82
+2.82
+2.2S
+0.95
+1.43
+1.42
+1.85
+2.40
+2.35
+1.74
+1.97
+2.04
+2.08
+4.66
+5.22
+5. 78
+1 . 79
+3.48
+1.42
+3.17
+4.25
+3.89
+4.31
+4.78
+4.28
+1.43
+0.32
+8.62
4-19 ^e;
4,1 q 1 /
i 1O
/A
4- A
"3D
• I t ny
ill
UG
. 1 n nn
+ 5.53
j_y nn
.e
Q -3
+5oJ
n7? Q79
r^A
Dy /
p?o,^44
i n 32
QO
+0.
+10. 84
1966
January
February
March
April
May
June
-ri.4-7
p+ /
.QO
y*i
_ , cj r\i
p+13 . 46
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain no seasonal movement Unadjusted series are indicated by an asterisk (*). Series numbers
are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
32
bed
FEBRUARY
BASIC DATA
7966
TABLE
LATEST DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES—Continued
Other Selected U.S. Series—Continued
Year and month
113. Net change .in 114- Treasury bill
consumer install- .rate*
ment debt
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Percent)
115. Treasury bond
yields*
116. Corporate bond 117. Municipal bond 118. Mortgage
yields*
yields*
yields*
(Percent)
(Percent)
(Percent)
86- Exports excluding. military aid
shipments, total
(Mil. dol.)
(Percent)
1962
July
August
September
October
November
December
1963
January
February
March
April
May
,q*
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1964
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1965
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1966
January
February
March
April
May.
June
Revised 1
/ /i
+4 49
+4 66
+3.00
+4.42
+5.80
+5.82
2 94
2 84
2.79
2 75
2.80
2 86
4
3
3
3
3
3
02
98
94
89
87
87
+5 82
+5-94
+ 5 72
+6.25
+5.29
+5.83
+6.11
+5 77
+4.09
+6 37
+4.60
+5 52
2 91
2 92
2 90
2.91
2 92
3 00
3 14,
3 32
3 38
3 45
3 52
3 52
3
3
3
3
3
4
4
3
4
4
A
/
89
92
93
97
97
00
01
99
04
07
11
l/
/ /?
/ /Q
+ 5 14
+6 95
+6 29
+4.94
+5.92
+4.44
+ 5.80
+5.22
+6.16
+4.92
+3.61
+6.72
3 53
3 53
i
i c;
i
JQ
1
Q#
, 7 ce
/ 1/
/ 1A
/
4
/
4
4
39
28
27
23
28
3 Pft
3 ?3
c
3 11
3 0?
5 56
3 04
3 07
/ ??
3 in
/
4
/
/
315
3 OS
310
311
3 21
3 ??
313
2*5
26
35
35
4 32
/
/
L
L
37
33
LQ
36
/ /5
4 49
4 48
3.48
3.48
3 48
3.48
3 51
3.53
3 58
3.62
3.86
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
20
16
13
13
14
16
16
12
14
/ 2,3
+8.04
+7.69
+7.64
+8.93
+8.04
+7.22
+7.99
+7.31
+8.20
+7.07
+7.88
+7.76
3.83
3.93
3.94
3.93
3.90
3.81
3.83
3.84
3.91
4.03
4.08
4.36
4.14
4 16
4.15
4.15
4.14
4.14
4.15
4 19
4 25
4,28
4 34
4-43
4.44
4 44
4.49
4 48
4 52
4 57
4 57
4 66
4 71
4 69
4 75
4 90
(NA)
4.60
4 43
4 92
/ A9
4 43
4 49
L A9
4 47
4 47
3 ?o
3 PO
3 30
3 97
3 99
q -i /
9ft
3 .<:o
3 28
3 20
3 90
318
3 1Q
3 93
3 95
ca
c. en
5 55
5 5^
5 53
5 59
5 /ft
5 in
5 /A
5 /5
5 / 5
5 / 5
5
5 . /49
5/5
5 /5
5 / 5
5 /5
yc
5 • 4->
/ c;
5 • 4>>
yc
5 .42
1 j* 7
/ 0 • os
/4V
17m
/
, /Uj) .4
QI n 3
Ij 7lUO
1C y /
17
, 944 . f
1 79ft *7
1 ,ft/049
3 .
3 j)
i
Oftrr
q
9 1 9P 1
QAQ.1
1
1,7DV
1
1
1
1
1
91 5 5
1
Qft5 5
ftQ^ ft
7Q1 1
ft/1 1
QO5 3
1 Q5/ P
1 Q55 ft
2 1 O5 /
2 jUJV.O
2r\iri~t Q
piOQ
£
,LO /. o
2,075 .2
5/5
2 06l 0
5 / 5
5 / 5
2
2
O/7
P
1 1 ft A
5 /6
5 /A
5 16
5 / 5
3
H7A 5
2 nQQ ft
o oAi n
5A /
120.4
2J1
3 18
5 / 5
2POA
313
5 / 5
2
3 06
3 09
3 18
5/5
1 91/
5 / 5
1 5Qft ft
5
5
5
5
5
5
9 75/
315
317
3 2Z.
3 97
3 ?/
3 35
3 40
5
/5
/5
/ 5
/ /
/ /
/ 5
/ ^:
3 /6
3 5/
5 /Q
5 51
5 A9
3 5?
5 7O
?
9
/ 9A 1
A
ft
37Q A
2 PAO 9
2 P3O P
2 P55 5
Q
2 » 33P
jjtc.y
2 ,39/
_?<4- 1-L
P
3/ 1 A
9
/Oft
P
P 355
(
1\TA
ft
^
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by an asterisk (*). Series numbers
are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. The "r" indicates revised; "p"f preliminary; ue", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "MA", not available.
•"•See "New Features and Changes for This Issue," page ill.
33
BASIC DATA
FEBRUARY 1966
bed
LATEST DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES—Continued
Other Selected U.S. Series—Continued
Year and month
1962
July
August
September
October
November
December
1963
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1964
January
February
March
April
May.
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1965
January
February
March
April
May.
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1966
January
February. ........
March
April
May
June
87. General im- 88. Merchandise 89. Excess of receipts (+) or pay- 81. Index of con- 94. Index of construction conments (-) in U.S. balance of payments sumer prices
ports, total
trade balance
tracts, value
(series 86 minus
series 87)
b. Official
a. Liquidity
settlements
balance basis
basis1
(Mil. dol.)
(Mil. dol.)
Revised 3
1,346.6
1,345.9
1,471.4
1,314.6
1,424.9
1,376.5
Revised 3
+403.2
+357.5
+438.9
+230.1
+303.8
+466.8
1,099.9
1,510.4
1,484.7
1,414.4
1,416.2
1,430.9
1,449.6
1,497.4
1,442.9
1,454-5
1,465.2
1,477.8
-112.6
+611.7
+484.4
+501.1
+480.6
+360.2
+391.5
+407.9
+542.6
+499.7
+490.6
+627.6
1,418.1
1,458.8
1,518.0
1,537.2
1,530.1
1,514-0
1,573.2
1,608.1
1,563.4
1,550.5
1,697.7
1,641.9
+621.5
+599.0
+557.2
+523.8
+517.2
+562.5
+545.4
+491.7
+697.6
+605.9
+508.5
+7B4.2
1,192.7
1,599.6
1,861.0
1,832.9
1,789.0
1,829.5
1,663.1
1,763.6
1,806.8
2,005.9
1,903.3
2,034.6
+21.9
-0.8
+893.8
+546.7
+471.2
+400.7
+592.4
+569.3
+517.3
+335.7
+50-4.9
+321.2
(NA)
(MA)
(Mil. doL)
-433
-73,1
(Mil. dol.)
(HA)
(NA)
-1,199
(NA)
-1,108
(NA)
-210
(NA)
-153
(NA)
-257
-136
-582
-351
-593
+46
-1,366
r-647
r+267
-783
r-581
r+230
r-531
r+218
p-388
p-1,249
(1957-59=
100)
(1957-59100)
96. Manufacturers' unfilled
orders, durable
goods industries
(Bil.dol.)
105.9
105.8
105.8
105.9
117
118
113
117
123
138
44.33
43.73
43.37
43.58
43.18
44.09
106.1
106.1
106.2
106.3
106.4
106.7
106.9
107.1
106.9
107.0
107.2
107.7
121
130
118
125
144
135
126
132
128
146
144
148
45.06
45.74
46.68
47.53
47.86
47.28
46.74
46.70
47.07
47.17
47.08
46.68
107.8
107.7
107.8
108.0
108.1
108.1
108.1
108.2
108.3 '
108.4
108.6
108.9
147
143
140
138
138
138
140
121
131
136
143
154
47.07
47.64
47.80
48.84
49.22
50.04
51.30
51.37
52.14
53.14
53.41
53.96
109.0
109.0
109.1
109.5
109.9
110.2
110.0
110.0
110.1
110.3
110.6
111.0
137
140
141
152
145
139
149
139
147
147
141
153
54.28
55.09
55.53
56.37
56.88
57.45
57.83
58.15
59.38
60.66
r6l.44
r62.56
105.3
105.5
(NA)
(NA)
97. Backlog of
capital appropriations, manufacturing 2
(Bil.dol.)
i.26
8.81
8.88
9^38
10.05
11.02
12.08
13 '.23
14.54
14,97
is! 66
17.06
pisiis
(NA)
p63.49
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by an asterisk (*). Series numbers
are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. The "r" indicates revised* "p" preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
•"•This balance represents a provisional estimate by the Department of Commerce on the basis of official settlements.
2
Data prior to 1961 not comparable because of "a change in asset accounting basis in machinery, except electrical, and a recalculation of the seasonal pattern for^petroleum
and coal products." (See NICE publication Investment Statistics—Capital
3
propagations: First Quarter 1965.)
See "New Features and Changes for This Issue," page iii.
34
bed
FEBRUARY
BASIC DATA
1966
TABLE
LATEST DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES—Continued
International Comparisons
Year and month
1962
123. Canada,
47. United
States, index of index of indusindustrial produc- trial production
tion
(1957-59=
100)
July
August
September
October
November
December
1963
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1964
January
February
March
April
May
June
July . .
August
September
October
November
December
1965
January
February
March
April
May
, *
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1966
January
February
March
April
May
June
119
119
120
119
120
119
(1957-59=
100)
118
119
119
119
120
120
120
121
122
123
124
126
126
125
126
126
126
127
120
121
122
122
123
123
121
123
125
126
128
128
128
129'
133
134
133
135
133
133
134
135
135
136
139
140
131
132
132
133
134134
132
135
138
139
139
141
141
142
143
144
144
144
145
146
148
p!50
131
122. United
Kingdom, index
of industrial
production
(1957-59=
100)
121. OECD, 1
European countries, index of
industrial
production
125. West
Germany, index
of industrial
production
(1957-59=
100)
(1957-59=
100)
179
180
181
179
179
178
127
125
116
129
133
134
129
129
136
137
136
138
158
155
161
165
165
166
163
166
179
184
184
191
190
134
135
136
136
129
128
132
133
133
139
134
136
136
138
140
139
139
139
140
139
141
139
138
137
140
143
143
143
142
144
"I /*i
140
150
143
147
145
145
149
149
149
140
172
169
132
132
141
142
142
138
146
146
156
155
149
154
155
154
151
151
r!55
156
155
p!51
138
140
139
141
140
r!43
r!43
r!43
r!44
r!46
r!46
pi 48
(NA)
(NA)
127
126
127
130
131
132
132
132
123
123
1?1
124
123
123
142
141
143
142
142
143
144
147
148
149
p!51
r!28
p!28
143
145
146
146
r!44
145
148
r!48
p!48
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
r!28
129
r!29
129
130
129
(1957-59=
100)
151
149
150
153
158
160
110
111
113
114
115
115
116
118
117
120
121
121
rl30
r!30
128
(1957-59=
100)
125
125
126
128
128
126
125
126
127
127
128
127
123
123
127
128
129
(1957-59=
100)
127. Italy, index 128. Japan, index
of industrial
of industrial
production
production
131
132
132
133
132
113
114
115
110
113
110
122
130
126. France,
index of industrial production
1 "3Q
1 ?Q
141
140
141
171
171
173
170
17*3
168
166
164
166
156
165
166
168
168
166
169
166
169
174
176
178
175
rl?6
r!78
plSl
(NA)
203
202
207
211
01 /
217
219
??/
224
226
228
233
232
232
239
241
237
2Z.2
243
237
242
240
234
243
241
238
243
240
243
p243
(NA)
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by an asterisk (*), Series numbers
are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
1
Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development.
35
Section TWO
charts and tables
DISTRIBUTION OF 'HIGHS' FOR CURRENT AND COMPARATIVE PERIODS
DIFFUSION INDEXES BASED ON HUNDREDS OF COMPONENTS
Average workweek—27 industries
New orders—36 industries
Capital appropriations—17 industries
Profits—700 companies
Stock prices—80 industries
Industrial materials prices—13 materials
State unemployment claims—47 areas
Nonagricultural employment—30 industries
Production—24 industries
Wholesale prices—23 industries
Retail sales—24 fypes of sfores
Nef safes—800 companies
New orders—400 companies
Carfoadings—79 commodity groups
Plant and equipment expenditures—22 industries
DIRECTIONS OF CHANGE FOR COMPONENTS OF DIFFUSION INDEXES
37
„.„,„„, „«
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
DISTRIBUTION OF "HIGHS" FOR CURRENT AND COMPARATIVE PERIODS
Number of series that reached a high before benchmark datesNumber of months before benchmark date
that hi0h was reached
Business cycle peak
Current expansion
Oct.
1965
Nov.
1965
Nov.
1948
Jan.
1966
Dec.
1965
May
1960
July
1957
July
1953
NBER LEADING INDICATORS
8 months or more
7 months
6 months
5 months
4 months
3 months
2 months
1 month
Benchmark month
10
2
2
1
e
10
2
1
6
11
1
2
1
3
9
9
4
5
*7
Number of series used
Percent of series high on benchmark date
24
29
9
1
5
1
2
"4
2
„
15
24
21
16
2
1
2
3
24
0
24
0
"2
3
6
16
38
24
38
"i
24
*1
X
20
0
2
21
5
NBER ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
8 months or more
6 months
"i
1
4 months
3 months
,
,
2 months
1 month
,
Benchmark month
'.
Number of series used
Percent of series high on benchmark date
3
4
2
9
11
1
10
2
9
11
82
11
100
11
91
11
82
.
Number of months before benchmark date
that high was reached
Apr.
1957
Apr.
1953
1
1
3
"3
1
2
3
i
"3
3
4
'*2
3
11
27
11
36
11
27
11
0
6th month before business cycle peak
3d month before business cycle peak
Aug,
1948
2
1
2
Feb.
1960
Nov.
1959
Jan.
1957
Jan.
1953
May
1948
NBER LEADING INDICATORS
13
2
7 months
6 months
5 months
3 months
,
2 months
1 month
Benchmark month
Number of series used
Percent of series high on benchmark date
4
4
"*2
i
'*4
i
*20
5
21
"i
2
2
5
1
2
1
221
5
13
2
1
2
1
2
3
1
1
1
1
4
1
2
3
7
9
1
"5
2
3
24
0
24
0
Z
20
15
2
21
33
18
i
2
"i
2
6
7
3
2
2
"i
2
1
24
0
24
4
NBER ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
8 months or more
7 months
6 months
2
1
1
1
1
2
"i
1
4 months
3 months
2 months
1 month
Benchmark month
Number of series used
„
Percent of series high on benchmark date
2
"i
1
"i
2
6
"5
4
"3
3
2
11
• 55
11
36
11
18
"i
"4
5
11
45
"I
3
5
11
45
1
3
6
11
55
"4
4
2
1
**i
4
3
11
36
11
27
NOTE: AH quarterly series and 2 monthly series (series 15, a leading indicator, and series 40, a roughly coincident indicator) are omitted from the distribution.
4 series were not available.
2
1 series was not available and 2 series were omitted because their peaks vere reached during the Korean War and such peaks
were disregarded in this distribution.
X
38
bed
CHART
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
FEBRUARY 1966
DIFFUSION INDEXES
FROM 1948 TO PRESENT
NBER Leading Indicators
Percent
TTTTTtTr!
D1. lAvg. workweek, prod, wkrs., mfg.-21 indus.
;
D6, New orders, dur. goods Indus.-36 Indus.
j
j;
ii
i!
Oil. Newly approved capital ap^ropriatibnsli - 17 Indus., tNICB f
f
i
( ^ ^ . Q s n , |-— I.Q| span)
I D34. Profits, FNCB of NY, percent rjeporting
^_
- higher profits-?00 co^Ul-Qjpon)
L
-h-r- T
---]-
J
D19. Stock prices, 500 commbn stocl|$-80 iridus.
T
r-
3. JIndustrial materials; prices-13 indus.
--- H=—~
^ - —Hp^^-™|—^-
D5. Initjid claims, Statfe^unempjl. insur.^47 qr^'as (inverted) j
75
;
|!
i i:
CHART
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
FEBRUARY 1966
bed
DIFFUSION INDEXES FROM 1948 TO PRESENT-Continued
NBER Roughly Coincident Indicators
40
Percent
D41. Employees in nonagr. establishments-30 Indus.
(6-mo. span —
1-mo. span ---)
100
50
0
D47. Industrial production-24 indus.
(6-mo. span
1-mo. span —)
100
50
0
D58. Wholesale prices, mfrd. goods-23 indus.
(6-mo. span —
1-mo. span —)
D54. Sales of refail stores-24 types of stores
(9-mo. sparj —
iLii^
1-mo. spfln —)
bed
FEBRUARY
CHART
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
1966
DIFFUSION INDEXES FROM 1948 TO PRESENT—Continued
Actual and Anticipated Indexes
Percent
Actual
Anticipated •
035. Net sob, all mfrs.-800 cos.
(4-Q span)
100
50
0
D36. New orders, dur. goods rrifrs.-400 cos.
(4:Q span)
100
50
D48. Cqrloadings-19 mfrd. commodity groups
!
(4-Q spar.)
D48. Change in total carloadings
(millions of cars-4-Q span
D61. New plant and equipment expend.-17-22 Indus
(1JQ span
j
i
i
!
Data re centere J within srJans. Latest data are as follow^
j
a
i
Series number and
date o| survey
035, t
36 (Oct. 1^65)
048 ([ ec. 1965) [
061 (l\ ov. 1965) i
j
Actual
I
3rH Q 1964 - 3rd
Isjt Q 1964 - 1st
2 d Q 1965 - 3rd
1
:
•
Q 1965
Q 1965
Q 1 196,5
1st Q 196! - 1st Q 1$66
1st Q 196! - 1st Q 196P
4th Q 1961 » - 1st Q 1966
f
MlllliJr
r r
lulujultlwu JtUJlillJJll njyu'ifi ' im iikiiiiLk ululiiJii1 LlliJJJ
1
Anticipated
Alltl itUAi
,,„,„ ,WM
yiu yi uJi JiiliLyyilii
Mill
TABLE
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
FEBRUARY 1966
bed
LATEST DATA FOR DIFFUSION INDEXES
NBER Leading Indicators
DL Average workweek, manufacturing
(21 industries)
D6- Value of manufacturers' new orders,
durable goods industries (36 industries)
D1L Newly approved capital appropriations,
NICB (17 industries)1
Year and month
1-month span
9-month span
1-month span
9-month span
3-quarter span
1-quarter span
1962
July
August
September
October
November
December
1963
January
February
March
April
May
i '
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1964
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1965
January
February
March
April
May.
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1966
January
February
March
April
May.
June
38.1
54.8
78.6
9.5
64.3
35.7
42.9
28.6
26.2
23.8
40.5
19.0
56.9
36.1
48.6
68.1
50.0
47.2
36.1
52.8
59.7
56.9
70.8
69.4
76
53
59
*74
76.2
50.0
61.9
14.3
85.7
54.8
47.6
57.1
59.5
71.4
21.4
83.3
61.9
45.2
83.3
69.0
78.6
76.2
61.9
64.3
52.4
64.3
66.7
73.8
63.9
43.1
54.2
63.9
52.8
47.2
51.4
52.8
52.8
69.4
33.3
62.5
88.9
69.4
66.7
63.9
52.8
66.7
62.5
72.2
69.4
58.3
83.3
77.8
47
53
'59
*53
*53
'65
'65
*76
4.8
88.1
40.5
66.7
42.9
26.2
54.8
71.4
14.3
76.2
64.3
97.6
• 85.7
50,0
52.4
73.8
33.3
85.7
73.8
88.1
78.6
78.6
95.2
59.5
55.6
44.4
58.3
61.1
44.4
50.0
63.9
40.3
54.2
58.3
55.6
68.1
76.4
83.3
80.6
75.0
72.2
58.3
63.9
83.3
72.2
63.9
61.1
68.1
53
76
*56
71
*53
*44
*32
'59
57.1
61.9
59.5
19.0
78.6
23.8
52.4
50.0
38.1
71.4
rSl.O
54.8
76.2
81.0
59.5
59.5
33.3
54.8
71.4
r64.3
p76.2
48.6
38.9
63.9
50.0
44-4
58.3
59.7
41.7
61.1
61.1
r55.6
r70.8
76
65
71
P71
P59.5
77.8
75.0
77.8
68.1 '
66.7
68.1
91.7
r80.6
p77.8
P 53
(NA)
(NA)
P41.7
NOTE: Figures are the percent of series components rising and are centered within spans: 1-month indexes are placed on latest month and 9-month indexes are placed
on the 6th month of span;i; 1-quarter indexes are placed on the 1st month of the 2d quarter and 3-quarter indexes are placed on the 1st month of the 3d quarter. Seasonally adjusted components are used. Table 5 identifies the components for most of the indexes shown. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; and "NA", not available.
•'•Data prior to 1961
not comparable because of "a change in asset accounting basis in machinery, except electrical, and a
recalculation of the seasonal pattern for petroleum and coal products.11
(See NICE publication Investment Statistics - Capital
Appropriations: First Quarter 1965.)
42
bed
FEBRUARY
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
1966
TABLE
LATEST DATA FOR DIFFUSION INDEXES—Continued
NBER Leading Indicators—Continued
Year and month
D34. Profits, manufacturing, FNCB
(around 700 corporations)
1-quarter span
D19. Index of stock prices, 500x common
stocks (80 industries)
1-month span
9-month span
D23, Index of industrial materials prices
(13 industrial materials)
1-month span
9-month span
05. Initial claims for unemployment insurance, State programs,
week ended nearest the 22d (47 areas)
1-month span
9-month span
1962
July
August
September
October
November
December
1963
January
February
March
April
May
, J
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1964
January
February
March
April
May
I *
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1965
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1966
January
February
March
April
May
, *
June
48
*56
50
*59
'56
*55
57
*60
57
'56
55
59
*55
(NA)
69.4
78.1
36.2
8.1
98.7
84.4
1.2
3.7
18.7
67.5
93.7
95.0
23.1
30.8
50.0
53.8
53.8
53.8
30.8
38.5
38.5
53.8
46.2
61.5
63.8
38.3
61.7
42.6
36.2
72.3
36.2
27.7
27.7
53.2
74.5
53.2
97.5
78.7
43.7
91.2
85.0
51.9
29.4
75.0
76.9
44.9
44.9
68.4
95.0
95,0
98.7
95.0
89.1
84.6
78.2
79.5
77.6
69.2
71.2
84.4
61.5
46.2
50.0
46.2
46.2
69.2
46.2
38,5
69.2
69.2
50.0
57.7
61.5
69.2
61.5
69.2
65.4
61.5
61.5
61.5
61.5
53.8
61.5
76.9
34.0
89.4
31.9
47.9
46.8
63.1
44.7
44.7
44.7
59.6
40.4
23.4
44.7
66.0
72.3
48.9
63.8
80.9
46.8
31.9
85.1
60.6
53.2
73.4
74.7
65.2
78.5
75.6
52.6
35.3
89.7
41.0
76.3
73.1
59.6
24.0
83.1
78.2
86.5
85.9
84.6
84.6
81.8
68.8
65.6
75.3
76.6
76.6
53.8
53.8
46.2
65.4
30.8
53.8
46.2
76.9
69.2
73.1
61.5
38.5
61.5
69.2
69.2
76.9
76.9
80.8
84.6
76.9
69.2
69.2
76.9
69.2
89.4
27.7
57.4
77.7
48.9
48.9
63.8
51.1
53.2
34.0
31.9
83.0
73.4
72.3
70.2
74.5
89.4
60.6
61.7
89.4
61.7
70.2
74.5
72.3
92.2
81.8
64.3
70.8
66.9
0.0
24.7
79.9
81.2
66.9
70.1
57.1
80.5
58.4
51.9
58.4
72.7
67.5
61.0
59.1
63.6
53.8
30.8
69.2
76.9
53.8
57.7
46,2
42.3
50.0
15.4
34.6
61.5
69.2
76.9
61.5
69.2
53.8
53.8
46.2
46.2
46.2
2
46.2
24.5
57.4
66.0
61.7
59.6
51.1
34.0
38.3
78.7
57.4
44-. 7
51.1
78.7
78.7
59.6
66.0
61.7
78.7
80.9
87.2
70.2
74.0
S
61.5
76.9
36.2
NOTE: Figures are the percent of series components rising and are centered within spans: 1-month indexes are placed on latest month and 9-month indexes are placed
on the 6th month of span; 1-quarter indexes are placed on the 1st month of the 2d quarter. Seasonally adjusted components are used except in indexes D19 which requires no
adjustment and D34 which is adjusted only for the index. Table 5 identifies the components for most of the indexes shown. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; and
"NA", not available.
x
The diffusion index is based on 82 components through February 1963;
on 80 components, March 1963 to August 1963;
components, September 1963 to March 3964; on 78 components, April 1964 to November 1964; and on 77 components thereafter.
^Average for February 14, 15, and 16.
on 79
43
TABLE
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
FEBRUARY
1966
bed
LATEST DATA FOR DIFFUSION INDEXES—Continued
NBER Roughly Coincident Indicators
Year and month
D41. Number of employees in
nonagricultural establishments
(30 industries)
1-month span
6-month span
D47. Index of industrial production
(24 industries)
1-month span
6-month span
D54. Sales of retail stores
(24 types of stores)
1-month span
9-month span
Revised 1
Revised1
83.3
75.0
64.6
39.6
87.5
66.7
95.8
95.8
87.5
87.5
91.7
83.3
70.8
79.2
85.4
D58. Index of wholesale prices
(23 manufacturing industries)
1-month span
6-month span
1962
July
August
September
October
November .,..,...
December
61.7
51.7
51.7
50.0
48.3
43.3
51.7
52.1
58.3
83.3
29.2
68.8
35.0
43.3
50.0
35.4'
66.7
77.1
60.4
47.9
72.9
62.5
45.0
41.7
28.3
43.5
32.6
56.5
30.4
32.6
41.3
37.0
30.4
26.1
26.1
41.3
41.3
41.3
47.8
58.7
73.9
50.0
58.7
52.2
69.6
63.0
71.7
32.6
47.8
58.7
60.9
63.0
69.6
71.7
78.3
71.7
69.6
67.4
32. 6
63.0
69.6
52.2
71.7
34.8
34.8
69.6
65.2
60.9
56.5
56.5
60.9
69.6
69.6
69.6
56.5
56.5
56.5
60.9
58.7
60.9
69.6
78.3
82.6
63.0
60.9
67.4
67.4
60.9
60.9
60.9
54.3
52.2
52.2
69.6
r73.9
76.1
80-4
82.6
76.1
67.4
69.6
60.9
60.9
71.7
P71.7
41.3
1963
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
65.0
46.7
71.7
76.7
75.0
63.3
78.3
53.3
56.7
66.7
53.3
80.0
60.0
65.0
65.0
68.3
68.3
71.7
73.3
60.0
66.7
60.0
73.3
73.3
79.2
66.7
83.3
54.2
83.3
75.0
72.9
68.8
5B.3
64.6
50.0
77.1
83.3
91.7
95.8
91.7
91.7
83.3
91.7
77.1
79.2
77.1
83.3
85.4
50.0
54.2
52.1
41.7
52.1
75.0
66.7
64.6
25.0
58.3
54.2
77.1
1964
January
February
March
April
May.
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
53.3
83.3
66.7
63.3
65.0
73.3
66.7
51.7
73.3
46.7
88.3
75.0
75.0
75.0
80.0
83.3
73.3
75.0
75.0
91.7
86.7
80.0
90.0
90.0
62.5
75.0
75.0
87.5
66.7
62.5
83.3
64.6
45.8
68.8
79.2
81.2
91.7
95.8
87.5
91.7
87.5
89.6
70.8
70.8
87.5
79.2
91.7
91.7
•43.8
79.2
65.2
60.9
73.9
65.2
78.3
39.1
71.7
100.0
75.0
75.0
81.7
60.0
60.0
80.0
85.0
56.7
63.3
85.0
r91.7
88.3
83.3
76.7
80.0
78.3
76.7
76.7
85.0
91.7
91.7
P86.7
66.7
66.7
79.2
58.3
70.8
83.3
85.4
83.3
83.3
83.3
66.7
87.5
87.5
87.5
1965
January
February
March
April
May.
June
July
August
September
October
November
December ........
1966
January
February
March
Apri 1
May
, *
June
P83.3
Si. 2
81.2
66.7
52.1
75.0
r83.3
r85.4
p68.8
P83.3
34. a
73.9
60.9
60.9
63.0
69.6
39.1
56.5
91.3
43.5
76.1
47.8
73.9
73.9
P78.3
(NA)
77.1'
60.4
52.1
62.5
87.5
70.6
91.7
83.3
77.1
85.4
83.3
83.3
82.6
78.3
78.3
73.9
71.7
54.3
78.3
80.4
87.0
87.0
73.9
87.0
87.0
P95.7
(NA)
P56.5
NOTE: Figures are the percent of series components rising and are centered within spans: 1-month indexes are placed on latest month, 6-month indexes are placed on
the 4th month, and 9-month indexes are placed on the 6th month of span. Seasonally adjusted components are used. Table 5 identifies the components for the indexes
shown. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; and "NA", not available.
1
See "Mew Features and Changes for This Issue," page iii.
44
bed
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
FEBRUARY 7966
TABLE
LATEST DATA FOR DIFFUSION INDEXES—Continued
Actual and Anticipated Indexes
D35- Net sales, manufactures
(800 companies)
D36. New orders, durable manufactures (400 companies)
D48. Freight carloadings (19 manufactured
commodity groups)
D6L New plant and equipment
expenditures (16 industries)
4-quarter span
4-quarter span
4-quarter span
i-quarter span
Year and month
Actual
Anticipated
Actual
Anticipated
Change in
total (000)
Anticipated
Actual
42.1
68.4
-67
Actual
Anticipated
1962
July
August
September
October
November
December
1963
January
February
March
April
May.
June
72
74
71
70
74
"&2
'76
'76
63.*2
63^2
+29
'?6
'so
77
'%
73.7
78!9
+39
74
"BO
*76
*76
57.9
6s!Z
+44
82
'84
*82
"so
78.9
78.9
+21
*84
*85
*82
*84
68.*4
73.7
-39
*83
87
*84
*84
84.2
63. 4
+11
"82
"86
"si
*84
73.7
94.7
+41
*83
*87
*84
*84
52.*6
89.5
r+44
'84
*88
'84
*85
CNA)
S9.*5
+49
*90
*88
90
*84
84.2
+23
(NA)
*88
84
84.2
+22
July
August
September
October
November
December
1964
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1965
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1966
January
February
March
April.
May
June
90
(NA)
*87
7X7
65.6
65.6
46.*9
68.'s
40.6
50.0
65.*6
75.0
75.0
71.9
71.9
75.0
71.9
50.0
62.5
50.0
84.4
75.0
96.9
68 ".8
56.2
65.6
75.0
68*. 8,
87! 5
65^6
(NA)
84*4
e-28
56.*2
NOTE: Figures are the percent of series components rising and are centered within spans: 4-quarter indexes are centered in the middle quarter; 1-quarter indexes are
placed in the 1st month of the 2d quarter. Seasonally adjusted components are used for series D61; other indexes, based on 4-quarter spans (same quarter a year ago),
require no seasonal adjustment. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; and "NA", not available.
45
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
FEBRUARY 7966
bed
SELECTED DIFFUSION INDEXES AND COMPONENTS
Basic Data
1964
1965
1965
1966
Diffusion index title and components
Dec.
Jan.
Feb.
Mar.
Apr.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.r
Dec.
Jan.p
Average weekly hours
Dl. AVERAGE WORKWEEK OF PRODUCTION
WORKERS, MANUFACTURING 1
(21 industry components)
All manufacturing industries
Durable goods industries:
Ordnance and accessories
Lumber and wood products
Furniture and fixtures
Stone, clay, and glass products
Primary metal industries
Fabricated metal products
Machinery, except electrical
Electrical machinery
Transportation equipment
Instruments and related products
Miscellaneous manufacturing industries .
Nondurable goods industries:
Food and kindred products
Tobacco manufactures
Textile mill products
Apparel and related products
Paper and allied products
Printing and publishing
Chemicals and allied products
Petroleum and related products . . . „
Rubber and plastic products
,
Leather and leather products
41.2
41.2
41.2
41.3
41.0
40.9
41.2
41.4
41.4
41.4
40.7
40.8
42.4
42.2
42.2
41.0
40.7
41.6
42.1
42.3
42.2
41.2
40 .3
41.9
42.1
42.3
42.3
41.5
41.0
41.8
41.9
42.3
42.6
41.2
40.9
41.4
41.3
43.7
41.7
41.9
40.5
40.9
41.9
41.8
41.6
42.3
41.1
41.5
41.8
41.4
42.3
42.2
41.3
41.7
42.2
41.1
42.4
r42-4
1-41.7
r41.7
r4.3.0
r41 . 2
r42.3
42.5
41.0
41.9
42.7
41.3
42.7
43.0
41.0
42.9
41.2
39.9
43.1
41.0
43.4
41.2
39.9
43.1
41.1
-43.3
41.3
39.8
43-2
41.2
43.5
41.4
39.8
42.3
40.5
42.7
40.5
39.5
43.0
40.5
41.8
41.5
39.8
43.5
41.0
43.0
41.7
40.0
43.7
41.3
43.4
41.7
40.2
r43.9
r41.5
r42.9
r41.7
r40.3
44.0
41.5
43.5
41.8
40.2
41.3
39.2
41.8
36.5
43.0
41.4
38.5
42.0
36.5
43.1
41.1
38.3
41.9
36.6
43.1
41.0
36.7
41.5
36.0
42.7
40.7
37.8
41.7
36.0
43.0
41.0
37.7
41.8
36.4
43.4
41.1
38.0
41.9
36.5
43.6
r£L.l
r37.7
r42.0
r36.4
r43.6
41.3
39.4
42.2
35.9
43.3
38.6
41.7
42.0
41.6
38.2
38.6
41.8
41.5
42.2
37.7
38.6
41.9
42.1
42.2
38.2
38.5
42.2
42.4
41.1
38.3
38.6
42.2
42.7
41.6
38.4
38.4
41.9
42.5
42.3
38.6
38.6
42.0
42.4
42.5
38.6
r38.8
42.0
r43.0
42.3
r38.5
38.6
42.1
41.9
42.6
37.8
41.7
41.2
38.9 '
41.9
36.6
43.1
38.6
41.9
41.9
42.2
'38.2
Millions of dollars
06. VALUE OF MANUFACTURERS' NEW
ORDERS, DURABLE GOODS INDUSTRIES1
(36 industry components)
All durable goods industries . . . ,
Primary metals
Blast furnaces, steel mills
Nonferrous metals
Iron and steel foundries .
Other primary metals
Fabricated metal products . .
Metal cans, barrels, and drums
Hardware, structural metal and wire products . .
Other fabricated metal products
Machinery, except electrical
Steam engines and turbines*
(•Internal combustion engines *
Farm machinery and equipment . . . .
Construction, mining, and material handling*. .
Metalworking machinery *
Miscellaneous equipment *. . ;
Machine shops
Special industry machinery *
General industrial machinery*
Office and store machines*
Service industry machinery *
20,720
21,271
21,130
21,714
3,593
2,018
2,908
1,276
3,392
1,635
r23,2S9
r3,686
pi, 849
23,584
3,802
2,291
22,425
3,148
1,451
22,389
3,739
2,232
22,043
3,456
1,876
22,163
3,821
2,243
2,089
2,068
2,110
2,065
2,098
2,013
2,050
2,213
P2,31S
(NA)
3,098
3,092
3,050
3,100
3,107
3,315
3,349
3,396
P3,498
(NA)
175
209
185
166
156
242
157
232
P3H
(NA)
526
239
525
234
575
. 267
598
213
581
222
620
229
675
279
660
277
P559
p258
(NA)
(NA)
237
237
234
245
285
248
259
258
p282
(NA)
NOTE: Data are not shown when field confidential by the source agency.
p=preliminary,
r = revised.
•"•Data are seasonally adjusted fty source agency.
46
^Denotes machinery and equipment industries that comprise series 24.
3,617
(NA)
NA=Not available,
bed ™«u*«r .96«
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
SELECTED DIFFUSION INDEXES AND COMPONENTS—Continued
Directions of Change
9-month spans
1-month spans
1965
1966
1965
1966
Diffusion index title and components
i—
o.
QO
^3
f f 1 1f f ! 11 1
>i
ro
c:
3
^^
o_
CJ
.»—i
o
>
o
y
2£
c
co
*F
^
"T1
"7
-^
^
9
^
?
"3
19
79
+
24
52
o
50
o
38
71
+
81
+
55
o
60
o
60
76
81
60
60
33
55
71
64
76
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
-
+
-
-
+
-
+
-
+
-
+
+
+
+
Dl. AVERAGE WORKWEEK OF PRODUCTION
WORKERS, MANUFACTURING
(21 industry components)
Percent rising
All manufacturing industries
Durable goods industries:
Ordnance and accessories
Lumber and wood products
Furniture and fixtures
Stone, clay, and glass products
Primary metal industries
Fabricated metal products
+
-
+
+
-
+
+
+
-
_
+
-
-
Q
-
+
+
O
+
-
+
-
+
+
+
-
+
+
-
_
Machinery, except electrical
Electrical machinery
Transportation equipment
Instruments and related products
Miscellaneous manufacturing industries
Nondurable goods industries:
Food and kindred products
Tobacco manufactures
Textile mill products
Apparel and related products
Paper and allied products
-
".
,
Printing and publishing
.
Chemicals and allied products
Petroleum and related products
Rubber and plastic products
Leather and leather products
+
_
_
_
_
+
+
_
-
+
+
+
0--
+
_
_
+
_
+
0
+
+
+
--
_
_
+
+
-
0--
+
+
+
+
+
-
+
+
+
-
-
+
-
+
+
+
O
-
+
+
-
-
-
-
+
+
-
+
+
+
O O
+
-
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
-
+
+
+
-
-
-
+
+
+
-
+
+
+
-K
+
+
O
+
+
+
+
+
O
-
-
0
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
0
+
+
+
+
+
-
+
- - O
-
+
-
+
+
- O O
+
- -
-
O
+
O-
—
+
—
OO
-
—
O
+
+
+
O
—
+
O
O
—
+
+
—
+
+
-
+
O
+
+
+
-
+
+
O
+
—
o
+
+
+
-
+
+
0
-
-
+
_
+
+
-
+
_
+
-
+
.
-
0
0
-
-
-
-
+
'
+
+
+
-
+
o
—
o
+
+
+
+
+
0
+
0
+
+
+
+
78
68
67
68 92
81
78
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
f
—
—
+
+
+
—
_
_
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
-
+
+
+
f
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
-
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
---
-
+
+
0
+
-
+
+
-
+
+
+
—
+
O
+
+
O
—
—
50
44
58
60
42
61
61
56
71
42
68
78
75
+
+
+
+
-
+
-
+
+
+
-
-
+
-
+
+
+•
-
+
+
+
+
+
+
—
+
„
D6. VALUE OF MANUFACTURERS' NEW
ORDERS, DURABLE GOODS INDUSTRIES
(36 industry components)
Percent rising
*
All durable goods industries
Primary metals:
Blast furnaces steel mills .
Nonferrous metals
Iron and steel foundries
Othef primary metals
Fabricated metal products:
Machinery, except electrical:
Steam engines and turbines*
Internal combustion engines *. .
Farm machinery and equipment
Construction mining and material handling *
Metalworking machinery*
Miscellaneous equipment *
Special industry machinery *
General industrial machinery*
Office and store machines* .
Service industry machinery *
+
-
+
+
+
-
+
-
+
+
O
+
+
+
--
+
+
-
+
+
+
+
-
+
-
+
+
-
+
-
+
O-
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
•h
-
•
+
J
-
+
-
-
-
+
-
+
+
--
-
+
+
-
+
-
+
-
+
-
-
+
+
+
—
+
+
-
+
+
+
-
+
+
+
+
-
O
+
+ = rising; o - unchanged;- = falling. Directions of change are computed even though data are held confidential,
comprise series 24.
I
-
4
—
+
+
+
*Denotes machinery and equipment industries that
47
TABLE
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
bed
FEBRUARY 1966
SELECTED DIFFUSION INDEXES AND COMPONENTS—Continued
Basic Data-—Continued
1964
1965
1965
1966
Diffusion index title and components
Dec.
Jan.
Feb.
Mar.
Apr.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
Dec.
Jan.
Feb.1
Millions of dollars
D6. VALUE OF MANUFACTURERS' NEW ORDERS,
DURABLE GOODS INDUSTRIES*- Continued
Electrical machinery
Electrical transmission, distr. equipment*
Electrical industrial apparatus*
Household appliances
Radio and TV
Communication equipment
Electronic components
Other electrical machinery*
Transportation equipment
Motor vehicle parts
Motor vehicle assembly operations
Complete aircraft
2,637
}
2,995
2,983
r3,201 P3,187
(NA)
604
2,929
602
622
653
r655
p728
(NA)
523
529
701
733
577
r699
p576
(NA)
5,690
6,301
6,453
6,853
6,920
r5,972
2,891
2,597
604
649
586
484
731
5,172
5,546
2,711
r6,132 p6,553
Shipbuilding and railroad equipment*
Instruments, total
Lumber, total
Furniture, total
Stone clay and glass total
Other durable goods, total
D23. INDEX OF INDUSTRIAL
MATERIALS PRICES 3
(13 industrial materials components)
Industrial materials price index
Index: 1957-59 = 100
112.5
110.6
110.7
113.2
116.7
114.8
115.0
120.5
123.3
.522
.506
.497
.475
.070
.071
.073
.073
29.872 33.188 34.804 35.262
1.730
1.791
1.874 1.748
.150
.148
.149
.149
.158
.156
.163
.159
.301
.298
.297
.299
.208
.210
.210
.207
1.747
1.702
1.724
1.725
.180
.162
.206
.167
11.488 11.512 11.558 11.663
.238
.252
.247
.234
.072
.080
.074
.074
.598
.076
37.582
.1.855
.150
.162
.294
.207
1.729
.230
11.535
.261
.078
115.5
1.17.1
Dollars
Copper scrap (Ib.)
Lead scrap (Ib.)
Steel scrap (ton)
Tinflb.)
Zinc(lb.)
Burlap (yd.)
Cotton (!b.), 15-market average
Print cloth (yd.), average
Wool tops (Ib.)
Hides (Ib )
Rosin (100 Ib.)
Rubber (Ib )
Tallow (Ib )
D54. SALES OF RETAIL STORES2
(24 retail store components)
All retail sales
Grocery stores
Other food stores
Eating and drinking places
Department stores
Mail order houses (department store merchandise).
Variety stores
Other general merchandise stores
Men's and boys' wear stores
.352
.382
.393
.334
.073
.073
.074
.074
39.824 36.165 36.060 37.328
1.629
1.564 1.661
1.614
.150
.150
.148
.149
.126
.130
.125
.133
.308
.306
.307
.305
.196
.200
.194
.194
1.598
1.667
1.612
1.623
.137
.138
-149
.138
12.018 12.080 11.779 11.803
.266
.262
.258
.264
.082
.080
.080
.083
.466
.413
.072
.075
36.929 29.918
1.930
1.819
.150
.152
.160
.143
.302
.304
.211
.204
1.651
1.743
-156
.167
11.652 11.523
.268
.250
.081
.074
Millions of dollars
r22,757 r 22, 933 r23,l68 r 22, 884 r22,829 r23,763
r4,940 r4,849 r4,874 r4,925 r4,98l r5,097
rl,674 rl,714 r 1,729 rl,727 rl,743
r 1,800 rl,867 rl,907 rl,867 rl,847
r200
r202
r211
r203
r205
r425
r425
r420
r435
r431
r265
r269
NOTE: Data are not shown when held confidential by the source agency.
NA = Not available,
preliminary, r=revised.
r271
r264
r265
rl,8!8
rl,986
r223
r452
r278
r24,217 r 24 ,640 r 24, 793 p24,855
5,298 p5,265
(NA)
(NA)
1,827 pi ,824
1,966 p2,075
220
P235
P467
459
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(MA)
p276
(NA)
(NA)
276
* Denotes machinery and equipment industries that comprise series 24.
'•Average for February 14, 15, and 16.
Data are seasonally adjusted "by the source agency.
Series components are seasonally adjusted by the Bureau of the Census. (See "Seasonal and Related Statistical Adjustments",
page 2.) Industrial materials price index is not seasonally adjusted.
2
3
48
bed
TABLE
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
FEBRUARY 1966
SELECTED DIFFUSION INDEXES AND COMPONENTS—Continued
Directions of Change—Continued
1-month spans
9-month spans
1966
1965
Diffusion index title and components
£
<c s -1 = i
% if
1 1- 1
=' ^ ^
Percent rising
Industrial materials price index
Copper scrap (Ib.)
Lead scrap (Ib )
Steel scrap (ton)
Tin(lb.)
Zinc(lb)
Burlap (vd )
H
rH
cL
D6. VALUE OF MANUFACTURERS' NEW ORDERS,
DURABLE GOODS INDUSTRIES- Continued
Electrical machinery:
Electrical transmission, distr. equipment *
Electrical industrial apparatus*
Household appliances
Radio and TV
Communication equipment
,
Electronic components . „
,
Other electrical machinery*
Transportation equipment:
Motor vehicle parts
Motor vehicle assembly operations
Complete aircraft
.
Aircraft parts
Shipbuilding and railroad equipment*
Other transportation equipment
Instruments, total
Lumber, total
Furniture, total
Stone, clay, and glass, total
Other durable goods, total
D23. INDEX OF INDUSTRIAL
MATERIALS PRICES2
(13 industrial materials components)
1966
1965
$ §
*» °
< £
>
o
^
m
^
O
=
ro
—»
-0
-*i*
>
O
r-
0
0
0
Z
0>
.0
c/? o
* | |<:> 3
6 ^
(L>
Li_
"5
m
-^
=i
Q_
,_
>
=
Oj
"G
0
^
&
Z
Q
-^
-
4
<:
co
§•
"o
4
-
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
—>
o
4
O
(—
-°
£
<U
*?
TO
S
ra
~?
Q.
<C
S°
^~
ro
3£
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
-
-
4
4
-
4
-
4
4
4
-
4
-
4
-
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
+-
-
4
-
4
-
4
-
4
4
4
0
4
-
4
4
-
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
-
4
4
4
4
-
-
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
-
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
-
4
4
4
4
4
-
4
-
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
-
-
4
4
4
4
4
4
+
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
-
4
4
4
-
4
-
4
-
+
-
-
4
-
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
-
4
-
4
4
4
+
4
-
4
4
4
f
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
-
4
4
0
4
4
4
4
4
4
-
-
4
-
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
-
4
-
4
4
4
4
-
4
4
+
+
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
-
-
4
4
-
4
4
-
4
+
4
4
4
-
-
+
4
4
4
4
4
4-
4
4
4
4
4
54
4
4
4
4
-
-
4
-
4
58
46
42
-
4
-
4
4
4
H-'
4
4
77
-
4
4
4
4
4
+
4
-
00
+
_4
4
-
-
-
-
4
4
-
50
15
35
62
62
77
-
4
4
4
4
4
+
+
-
-
-
-
+
-
4
4
+
-
.
4
4
4
-
4
4
+
4
4
46
69
77
62
69
54
54
46
4
4
4
+
+
+
+
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
.4
+
4
4
4
+
4
4
\-
4
4
4
+
69
46
a
46
-
-
-
4
4
+
-
-
4
4
-
-
-
4
4
-
4
-
-
-
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
+
-
-
4
4
4
+
+
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
+
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
0
O
4
-
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
+
4
_
_
+
+
_
_
-
-
4
-
_
_
4
4
-
-
4
4
4
4
-
Pnttnn flh ^ IR-markpt JIVPTSOP
Print cloth (yd ) average
Wool tops (Ib )
Hides (Ib)
Rosin (100 Ib )
Rubber (Ib )
Tallow (Ib )
D54. SALES OF RETAIL STORES
(24 retail store components)
Percent rising
All retail sales
•
Grocery stores .
Other food stores
Eating and drinking places
Department stores
Mail order houses (department store merchandise) - Variety stores
Other general merchandise stores
Men's and boys' wear stores
O
-
-
4
4
—
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
+
4
+
+
4
4
+
+
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
-
+
+
-
4
-
-
56
91
44
76
48
NA
78
80
87
87
74
87
87
96
NA
NA
-
4
4
4
-
4
4
+
NA NA
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
NA
NA
-
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
o
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
+
4
4
4
+
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
0
4
4
4
+
4
f
+
-
-
4
4
4
4
-
O
4
4
4
4
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
-
-
-
4
74 7 4
4
4
O
+
-
+
-
4
-
4
4
4
-
4
-
4
4
4
4
4
-
4
4
4
4
4
-
4
4
4
4
4
78
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
4 = rising; ov= unchanged;-= falling. Directions of change are computed even though data are held confidential,
comprise series 24.
4
+
*Denotes machinery and equipment industries that
•"•Average for February 14, 15, and 16.
Directions of change are computed before figures are rounded.
49
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
£>C(f
KMUMYI966
SELECTED DIFFUSION INDEXES AND COMPONENTS—Continued
Basic Data—Continued
1964
1965
1965
1966
Diffusion index title and components
Dec/
Jan.r
Feb.r
Mar. r
Apr. r
Sept. r
Nov.p
Oct.
Dec.
Jan.
Millions of dollars
D54. SALES OF RETAIL STORES1- Continued
Women's apparel, accessory stores
Family and other apparel stores
Shoe stores
Furniture home furnishings stores
Household appliance TV radio stores
Lumber yards building materials dealers
Hardware stores
Farm equipment dealers
Passenger car and other automotive dealers
Tire battery accessory dealers
Gasoline service stations
Drug and proprietary stores
Liquor stores
J ewel ry stores
Other durable-goods stores
Other nondurable-goods stores
—
507
5H
510
496
485
508
535
546
(NA)
(NA)
214
668
371
727
235
218
709
323
788
231
215
681
335
755
225
207
687
339
730
216
203
675
307
724
218
213
716
389
765
237
220
749
380
775
246
224
773
361
823
254
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
4,351
242
1,739
734
509
4,487
243
1,757
740
507
4,626
249
1,784
744
521
4,363
245
1,771
753
509
4,218
254
1,792
762
516
4,398
260
1,827
794
530
4,345
269
1,843
816
531
4,447
269
1,882
820
537
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
1965
Mar.
Apr.
May
1965
June
July
Sept.
1966
Oct.
Nov. r
Dec.r
Jan.P
Thousands of employees
041. NUMBER OF EMPLOYEES IN
NONAGRICULTURAL ESTABLISHMENTS1
(30 industry components)
All nonagricultural establishments
59,846
60,032
60,290
60,501
60,756
61,001
61,472
61,865
62,111
Miscellaneous manufacturing industries
541
354
502
1,052
943
1,174
1,109
1,210
240
333
98
532
356
498
1,050
966
1,176
1,119
1,218
241
334
99
529
356
491
1,050
968
1,181
1,127
1,227
239
332
100
527
356
490
1,068
973
1,192
1,142
1,237
245
332
102
528
357
495
1,077
983
1,208
1,149
1,238
250
334
105
527
357
500
1,068
983
1,218
1,163
1,267
251
342
107
530
358
500
1,046
987
1,224
1,182
1,263
252
349
108
53S
362
503
1,031
1,006
1,242
1,199
1,282
254
353
109
546
368
512
1,036
1,013
1,245
1,226
1,293
256
359
112
552
372
522
1,043
1,024
1,254
1,239
1,297
261
356
Food and kindred products
Tobacco manufactures
,
Textile mill products
Apparel and related products
Paper and allied products
Printing and publishing
Chemicals and allied products
Petroleum and related products
Rubber and plastic products
Leather and leather products
1,155
74
815
1,193
493
615
540
110
356
312
1,136
74
818
1,197
494
615
538
110
358
310
1,141
74
817
1,198
493
615
538
108
357
312
1,134
75
818
1,221
494
616
542
110
359
309
1,141
75
822
1,196
500
622
548
111
361
308
1,129
68
825
1,205
499
621
546
111
362
310
1,144
70
828
1,212
500
625
544
110
365
311
1,174
69
834
1,216
503
630
547
110
372
314
1,156
71
837
1,225
506
630
550
110
378
315
1,162
72
837
1,209
510
634
553
110
380
318
Mining
Contract construction
Transportation and public utilities
Wholesale trade
Retail trade
632
3,238
4,017
3,231
9,229
629
3,145
4,013
3,241
9,253
627
3,188
4,020
3,252
9,280
626
3,195
4,034
3,272
9,308
633
3,154
4,031
3,281
9,338
617
3,186
4,067
3,281
9,360
622
3,202
4,071
3,288
9,396
627
3,267
4,079
3,300
9,454
630
3,367
4,079
3,309
9,513
629
3,353
4,088
3,321
9,581
Ordnance and accessories
Lumber and wood products
Furniture and fixtures
Stone, clay, and glass products
Primary metal industries
Fabricated metal products
Machinery
t
Electrical equipment
Transportation equipment
Instruments and related products
59,814
99
NOTE: Data are not shown when held confidential by the source agency,
Data are seasonally adjusted by the source agency.
1
50
NA = Not available,
preliminary,
r=revised.
bed
FEBRUARY 1966
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
SELECTED DIFFUSION INDEXES AND COMPONENTS—Continued
Directions of Change—Continued
9-month spans
1-month spans
1965
1966
1965
1966
Diffusion index title and components
f
f
f
j
o
f
f
f
l
j
+
+
+
+
-
+
+
-
+
-
+
+
+
+
+
+ NA NA
+ N A NA
+ ' NA NA
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
o
-
O
+
-
+
o
+
+
+
-
-+
+
+
NA
+NA
+ NA
-NA
-
+
+
+
-
-
-
+NA
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
-
+
+
+
+
-
+
-(+
+
+
+
V + -
+
-
+
-
-
-
O
-
~
=
>
" ^ - 5
^
C D ^ ' t D T O
0.
D54. SALES OF RETAIL STORES - Continued
Women's apparel, accessory stores
Family and other apparel stores
Shoe stores
Furniture home furnishings stores
Household appliance TV, radio stores
Lumber yards, building materials dealers
Hardware stores
Farm equipment dealers
Passenger car and other automotive dealers
Tire battery accessory dealers
Gasoline service stations
Drug and proprietary stores
Liquor stores"
Jewelry stores
Other durable-goods stores
Other nondurable-goods stores
\
}
+
+
- - - O
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+ + +
0-+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+ + N A NA
- + N A NA
+ + N ANA
+
+ NA NA
+
+ N A NA
- + N A NA
+
+ NA NA
+
+ NA NA
+ NA
+ NA
+ NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
o
+
+
+
+
+
+
-+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
4 - 4 -
+
+NA
NA
+
-
+
+
+
-
+
+
+ N A
NA
4 - 4 -
+
-
+
+
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
1965
? ^ " ? ~ » < c
t
1966
' ? c ? s i
c
D41 NUMBER OF EMPLOYEES IN
NONAGRICULTURAL ESTABLISHMENTS
(30 industry components)
60
+
80
+
85
+
-
rising; o = unchanged;
88
+
83
NA
+ NA
NA
1965
1966
III! I III!
83
77
80
78
0
77
77
85
92
92
87
+
+
+
+
4.
.
-
-
+
+
-
+
f
+
+
0
O
+
—
+
+
+
+
4.
4.
+
4.
4,
Q
+
+
+
+
4-
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
-
+
+
+
-
-
-
.. .
+
+
—
+
+
+
—
+
+
+
+
O
+
+
O
+
+
+
+
+
h
+
+
+
f
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
)+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
4-
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
4.
+
O O
+
-
+
0
-
+
+
+
•
O
+
-
+
+
+
+
+
+
O
+
+
+
-
+
+
+
O
+
+
+
+
—
+
+
+
+
+
+
o+o
+
+
O
-
-
+
+
+
O +
_
+
+
+
+
+
+
_
+
O
+
O
+
o
+
+
+
—
-
+
--
+
0
+
+
+
+
+
+
0
-
+
+
-
+
-
+
+
+
+
+
-
+
+
+
+
o
4-
+
+
+
+
+
++
+
+
+
+
+
+
f
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
-
-
+
+
+
+
-|-
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
4
-
Retai 1 trade
57 63 85 92
+
+
+
+
+
-
_
O O
Rubber and plastic products
Leather and leather products
Mininc
Contract construction . . . .Transportation and public utilities
+NA
* .
Fiirniturp and fixturp^
Stone clay and glass products .
Primary metal industries
Fabricated metal products
Machinery
Electrical equipment
Transportation equipment
Instruments and related products
Miscellaneous manufacturing industries
Food and kindred products
Tobacco manufactures
Textile mill products
Apparel and related products
Paper and allied products
60
+
NA
NA
NA
g
?
CD
Percent rising
All nonagricultural establishments
Ordnance and accessories
Lumber and wood products
NA
NA
6-month spans
1-month spans
<
+
NA
+ NA
+ NA
+ NA
4
-
+
O
-
{
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
-
_
4
-
O -
4
-
+
4
-
0
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
o
+
-
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
o
+
4+
+
- = falling. Directions of change are computed even though data are held confidential.
51
TABLE
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
FEBRUARY 1966
bed
SELECTED DIFFUSION INDEXES AND COMPONENTS—Continued
Basic Data—Continued
1965
1965
1966
Diffusion index title and components
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Sept.
Oct.
NOV.
Dec/
3,069
9,019
2,386
7,785
r3,074
r9,08l
2,400
r7,869
3,081
9,127
2,395
7,935
3,086
H9.9
Jan.P
Thousands of employees
D4L NUMBER OF EMPLOYEES IN
NONAGRICULTURAL ESTABLISHMENTS1-^
Finance insurance real estate . . . . .
Service and miscellaneous
Federal government
State and local government
*
3,023
8,794
2,342
7,546
3,024
8,814
2,344
7,580
3,032
8,843
2,345
7,610
3,041
8,857
2,355
7,659
D47. INDEX OF INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION1
(24 industry components)
All industrial production
Durable goods:
Primary and fabricated metals
Primary metal products
Fabricated metal products
Machinery and related products
Machinery except electrical
Electrical machinery
Transportation ecjuipment
Instruments and related products
Clay glass and lumber.
Clay glass and stone products
Lumber and products
Furniture and miscellaneous
Furniture and fixtures
Miscellaneous
Nondurable goods:
Textiles appare! and leather
Textile mill products
Apparel products
Leather and products
Paper and printing
Paper and products
Printing and publishing
Chemicals petroleum and rubber
Chemicals and products
Petroleum products
Rubber and plastics products
Foods beverages and tobacco
Metal stone and earth minerals
Metal mining
Stone and earth minerals
3,061
8,967
2,379
7,740
9,144
2,412
7,979
Index: 1957-59 = 100
HO. 7
140.9
141.6
142.7
144. 2
H3.5
r!45.1
rH6.4
H8.5
HO'. 4
141.4
147.4
140.2
143.0
146.4
148.7
148.0
131.2
147.0
r!23.7
r!50.9
rll9.6
r!53.6
12J! 8
153*8
154.1
144. 4
146. 9
155'.2
155.8
144. 6
157.0
156.8
147. 3
H5.5
H7.0
159.4
158.4
149.5
149.8
161.7
159.2
149.8
152.1
162.4
162.1
149.4
155.7
rl65.8
rl66.2
r!55.0
158.0
rl67.8
rl68.4
r!57.4
r!59.0
169 '.4
173.1
160.7
162.2
129.2
120.5
129 '.9
114.2
130.3
117.1
131.6
112.8
132 '.6
115.4
133.' 8
116.2
134.4
118.3
r!34.8
rll9.1
136! 5
P124.7
154.3
142.4
155*.6
143.2
156.5
143.6
156.8
H3.5
155*.8
143.5
156*.S
147.1
159.7
150.4
rl62.6
r!53.0
131.5
144-0
106.1
132! 2
144.3
105.0
131 '.6
145.3
110.9
132.2
H5. 4
105.1
133.8
143.8
107.7
135!?
143.8
108.2
r!37.7
145. 7
109.3
r!39.*6
PH7.3
pllO.l
139.0
128.5
140.0
128.3
140.9
129.3
139 ".4
130.0
142. 1
H3.9
131.3
129.3
r!43.6
131.1
rl47.4
r!33.2
169! 5
122.2
172.6
169.2
121.5
167.7
169! 3
169.9
121.8
169.1
172.8
124-5
170.2
176! 6
177 .'l
r 124.0
175.5
r!78.4
rt.26.1
P183.5
145.2
H6.0
156.2
165*. 7
155.6
139.6
P139.6
(NA)
(NA)
130
158
172
177
162
165
131
139
(NA)
167
153
139
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
142
122.9
168.2
125.1
171.2
PM8.7
134.4
17.1.7
P179.9
p!26.0
(NA)
124.6
(NA)
136
173
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
125
121.9
116.5
122.3
121.8
123^1
119.9
123.2
120.6
123.6
114.5
125.0
pl!8.8
pias.i
127.2
122.5
120.9
103.1
111.4
107.9
112.0
113.0
111.9
117.1
112.5
117.1
113.0
106.7
110.6
116.8
rl!4.0
115.7
rl!3.9
118.5
113.5
124.6
124.1
125.8
118.2
121.6
123.9
123.7
125.8
126.4
127.3
122.4
127.4
116^5
125.5
r!06.2
r!33.2
pll6.4
p!38.6
102.0
102.4
102.6
103.1
103.0
103.2
103.4
103.7
104.1
104.2
100.9
100.2
99.3
98.0
99.5
97.8
101.8
102.5
103.1
103.6
98.0
99.6
98.0
101.6
98.3
97.7
97.9
98.0
101.8
101.4
98.3
93.4
101.7
101.5
101.8
101.3
102.1
101.3
101.9
101.6
101.7
101.4
101.6
101.1
101.5
101.3
101.8
101.7
102.0
101.8
123! 4
Minerals:
Coal
3,049
8,929
2,376
7,678
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
114
115
130
(NA)
(NA)
D58. INDEX OF WHOLESALE PRICES,
ALL MANUFACTURING <(23 manufacturing industries)
All manufacturing industries
Durable goods:
Lumber and wood products
Furniture and other household durables
Nonmetallic mineral products
Iron and steel
NOTE: Data are not shown when held confidential by the source agency. NA =Not available, p= preliminary, r = revised.
^•Data
are seasonally adjusted by the source agency.
2
Data are seasonally adjusted by the Bureau of the Census. (See "Seasonal and Related Statistical Adjustments", page 2.)
52
bed
FEBRUARY
TABLE
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
7966
SELECTED DIFFUSION INDEXES AND COMPONENTS—Continued
Directions of Change—Continued
6-month spans
1-month spans
1965
1966
1965
1966
Diffusion index title and components
cL
03
<:
<t
s
+
+
+
+
-
4
4-
+
4
-
-
-
+
-
4
-
-
+
+
+
_
+
+
-
+
-
4
4
+
+
( J o c D m Q Jr
O Z Q - ^ l J -
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
f
+
+
+
4-
+
4-
69
83
+
85
+
4-
4-
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
_ [ . + , 4 . 4 , . j . _ l _ . | _ _ j _
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+ NA
4-
+
-
+
85
+
+
+
+
+
+
4+
+
4
+
+
-
4
4-
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
I-
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
-
-
+
+
+ N A N A
-
+
-
+
4 - +
4-
4-
-
+
4-
+
-
+
-
+
+
4
4-
4-
4 - 4 - 4 -
-
-
+
4
4 - 4 -
-
4
-
+
+
+
_
+
-
+
4 - 4 - 4 -
67
61
61
—
O
O
61
—
N A N A
4
-
44
-
-
NA
4
-
-0
+
-
+
+
+
-
+
4 - 4 -
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
N
A
+
+
]\JA
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
- * - +
-
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+ NA
+
+
+
. . . . .
+
+
+
.
+
_.
+
NA
+
NA
JJA
4-
NA
NA
.
,.
4.
4-
+
+ NA
+ NANA
+
N
NA
52
52
70
74
56
O
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
o
A
+
76
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
NA
NA
+
+
+
NA
+
+
4-
-
A
- N A
+
+
N
NA NA
+
+
+
4 - N A
+ N A
4-
+
*
+
..
+
+
+
+
54
+
+
+ 4 - 4 -
+
-
-
Metal stone and earth minerals
Metal mining
Stone and earth minerals
+ J J A
4+
4-
+
-
+
88 88 83
+ + +
+
+
4-
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
4-
+
+
+
+
—
83 83 83 67 88
+ + + +
+
- N A
+
+
o § ; ~ 5
S
-S
—,
+
+
4-
.
. r
<t
+
•
+
o o
S
+
+
+
+
+
+
PritHp nil 7\r\(\ n^tnrsl Qf\^.
D58, INDEX OF WHOLESALE PRICES,
ALL MANUFACTURING
(23 manufacturing industries)
Percent rising ........ ^
All manufacturing industries ....
Durable goods:
Lumber and wood products
Furniture and other household durables
Nonmetallic mineral products
..
....
Iron and steel
*
£ f l = f £ g l j |
4 - 4 - 4 - 4 -
+
+
+
o
4+
83
+
-
+
s
+
75
-
4
+
-
52
+
-^
o o >
+
+
ro
p
o
4+
O
+
-
+
4-
--
+
+
+
4
+
+
co
+
31 67
z
£ " o
<:
+
0 , 2 ?
o
=
+
+
4
+
to
+
+
4
° S " t j
—i
+
+
4
+
"-a
+
81
' +
+
-5
+
71
+
<5?
—>
O
58
-=>
s
O
a
~B
1
+
+
D47. INDEX OF INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION
(24 industry components)
Percent rising1
All industrial production
Durable goods:
Primary and fabricated metals
Primary metal products
Fabricated metal products
Machinery and related products
Machinery except electrical
Electrical machinery
Transportation equipment
Instruments and related products
Clay, glass, and lumber
Clay glass and stone products
Lumber and products
Furniture and miscellaneous
Furniture and fixtures
Miscellaneous
Nondurable goods:
Textiles appare! and leather
Textile mill products
Apparel products
Leather and products
Paper and printing
paper and products
Printing and publishing
Chemicals petroleum and rubber
Chemicals and products
Petroleum products
Rubber and plastics products
Foods beverages and tobacco
Foods and beverages
Tobacco products . ..
Minerals:
-p
o-ro
ro
D41- NUMBER OF EMPLOYEES IN
NONAGRICULTURALESTABLISHMENTS-Con.
Finance insurance, real estate
Service and miscellaneous
Federal government
State and local government
§
s
+
+
NA
+• NA
+
80 83 76 67 70 61 61 72 72
+ + + + +
+ + + +
_
_
_
—
—
—
_
_
—
O
+
+
O
+
+
+
+
+
+
—
0
-
+
+
4 - 4 .
—
O
+
+
—
+
-
+
O
4
+ Arising; o ^unchanged;- -falling. NA Not available.
x
The percent rising is "based on 24 industry components. Where actual data for separate industries are not available, estimates are used to compute the percent rising. Directions of change for the most recent spans are computed before figures for
the current month are rounded.
53
TABLE
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
bed
FEBRUARY 1966
SELECTED DIFFUSION INDEXES AND COMPONENTS—Continued
Basic Data—Continued
1966
196 5
1965
Diffusion index title and components
Mar.
Apr.
July
June
May
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
8
7
7
0
8
% 5
100 3
110 5
117 8
101 9
Dec.r
Jan.P
Index: 195 7-59 = 100
D58. INDEX OF WHOLESALE PRICES,
ALL MANUFACTURINQi-Continued
Durable goods-Continued
Fabricated nonstructural metal products
Nondurable goods:
Processed foods
Tobacco -products and bottled beverages
Cotton products
Wool products
Manmade fiber textile products
Apparel
Pulp, paper and allied products
Chemicals and allied products
Petroleum products refined
Rubber and rubber products
Hides, skins, leather, and leather products
112 9
112.3
100.4.
109.0
104.4
105.0
97.3
100.7
109.1
101.0
109.1
104.3
105 4
97.3
101.0
111.0
114 9
101 4
109.5
104 7
105 6
96.6
100.5
110.8
102 0
108.0
99 3
102 7
96.2
103 4
102 9
108.5
99 5
102 8
96 0
103 5
104
108
100
103
95
103
1
4
1
8
8
4
95 7
103 6
107
100
104
95
103
99 3
97 3
94 5
92 1
106.7
99 6
97 5
94 4
92 2
106.4
100 1
100 1
100 2
97 5
Q*i 6
Q7 /
Q*i /
Q3 6
Q7 5
93 2
107 3
116 2
101.2
109.0
104 8
105 6
97 2
100.7
113 0
106 2
107 7 •
100 7
TO"} Q
107 6
115 8
101 4
109.3
104 7
105 2
97 3
100.5
113 3
117 2
101 7
110 0
TOS Q
104
96
100
110
8
6
7
8
1 nA ?
1 DA 1
2
9
7
6
6
107 4
100 9
QG:
c
cn s
108 4
1 C\^ £>
a/
i
116
101
109
106
104
~\ nA i
107 4
101
0
in6; Q
10Q Q
inA ^
ins ^
% /,
100 5
11? Q
i n7 i
1 07 A
m
T
102 0
109 6
inA 7
i ns A
m
i
im Q
10Q Q
inA 7
i n^ ^
QA q
QA Q
100 5
100 4
11? ^
m
-I
flQ
T
£}
i
iuyno. 4/
ins n
in7 Q
i nn Q i nn Q i nn &
1 nc e
i
n^ 4y
T n^ /
4.U5.
QT
q
vJ-*7
qq q
QO (£,
1 01 Q
in/ i
i n/ i
inn ^
07 /
i nn ^
i nn rt i nn Q i rn n
Q7
"7
Q
^
Q"?
7 I .I
7?
/O
y /. ^}
Q«
on f?
oG n
y / .u
7 ( • f
%
7
Q7 e
m
o
Q7 A
%
&
no -i
m
A
in/ ^j
J.U4.
Q1
?1 .^ J
~\ n/ A
7
f=\
QQ T
7JJ. X
T 1 Q Q
QQ
y
7J . 4
11 / /
Q-l
p = preliminary.
r = revised.
Data are seasonally adjusted by the Bureau of the Census. .(See "Seasonal and Related Statistical Adjuatments", page 2.)
1
54
Basic data for components of diffusion index D19, Index of stock
prices, 500 common stocks, and of diffusion index D5, Initial
claims for unemployment insurance, State programs, are not avail=
able from the Census Bureau.
/
y,?.4
11 A ^
bed
FEBRUARY
TABLE
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
7966
SELECTED DIFFUSION INDEXES AND COMPONENTS—Continued
Directions of Change—Continued
6-month spans
1-month spans
1965
1966
1965
1966
Diffusion index title and components
*-
>i
a.
<C
co
co
S
a.
SE
1=
=
-7
co
<:
s
+
+
-
+
+
-
0-
tXO
^
<
^5
+
+
OO
-
+
-
—)
<u
0-3
=
—»
>
.*_.
~B
-^
=5
J=
J->
o o < P r o
^ Q _,
CD o
o CD
0
<£
c o o s r o
j g - J ' i - s J f g - t s S
« i
o
I J ^ ^ i 5 - J = ^
+
4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 -
D58. INDEX OF WHOLESALE PRICES,
ALL MANUFACTURING-Continued
Durable goods-Continued
Nonferrous metals
Fabricated structural metal products
Fabricated nonstructural metal products
General purpose machinery and equipment
Miscellaneous machinery ..
Electrical machinery and equipment
Motor vehicles
Miscellaneous products
4
Nondurable goods:
Processed foods
Tobacco products and bottled beverages
Cotton products
Wool products
Manmade fiber textile products
-
4
4
-
O
+
-
+
+
+
+
---
4
-
-
4
4 * 4 ~
+
O
4-
4"
O
-
4- H
4
+
-
+
+
-
+
-
+
+
- O-
4+
+
O-
-
+
+
+
4 - 4 - 4 4
4 - - I - 4 - 4
4 - 4 - 4 +
+
+
- 4 - 4 -
+
+
+
+
4+
+
+
O
h
4-
4-
+
4 - 4 - 4 - 4 -
-
0
4
-
O 4 - 4 -
—
+
—
O
4
-
+
4
+
+
+
4 * 4 "
+
4-
-
4
-
4 ' 4 ' 4 - 4 " 4 -
1966
t a f l Q . * -
< s - -> ^ 5 c ^ S
>
£
JrJ
(23 industry components)2
Coal bituminous
Food composite
Tobacco (cigarette manufacturers)
Texti le products
paper
...
Publ ishing
.
Chemicals
....
Drugs
Oil composite
Building materials composite
Steel
Metal fabricating
Machinery composite
Office and business equipment
Electric household appliances
Electronics
Automobiles
Radio and television broadcasters
Electric companies ...«
Natural gas distributors*
Retai 1 stores composite
Life insurance
67
0
25
80
O
O
70
57
—
74
—
—
4 - +
444 - 4 -
—
4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 444+
44+
4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 -
O
—
*
-
67
4 - 4 -
4 - 0
4~
—
+
+'
4
81
—
4 " 4 -
—
>*
Q
.
t
_.
^
3
~
5
a
1966
°
C
=
l
C
1 1
0
.
D
^
C
-
'
>
J
O
0
*=C
^
T
^
^
?
_•,
Q -O p
£ t L ^ . > c j c : J a
=
j
Q
j
O
O
C
D
m
e
D
=
- ^ < C c o O Z Q ^ S U _
77
80
58
52
58
4-
D
m
C O O .
S < C
68
6l
59
+
4 - 4 -
—
O
—
—
+ 4
- | _ - t - - | _
+
—
-
4-
4 - 4 4+
44+
- j .
4 - ' J - r H 4 4 - 4 - 4 4
r
C
oi l—
t i .i
73
+
4 - 4 "
O
+
4 - 4 -
4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 4 - 4 -
"
+
1965
C=
£ ^
raQ.to"§-H^ g--sg^
71
O 4 * O
9-month spans
1965
Percent rising3..
Index of 500 stock prices
r
4 - " +
O
1-month spans
>,.=
4 - 4 +
+
+
+
+
+
.
J=
- - - 0
- 4 - - -
O
+
+
O 4 - 4 - 4 +
-0- 4 - - 4 - -
Hides skins leather and leather products
mo INUtA
IMHFY Ur
nc o
CTnr*k
"Jiy.
1 Ul/l\ PPIPPI
r Kioto,
500 COMMON STOCKS 1
4 - - O
- 4 - 4 -
+
+
- 4
4-
O
-
O
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
4 - 4 - 4 - 4
Pulp paper and allied products
Chemicals and allied products • • • • . • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • •
O
O +
-
-
r
64
—
4 - 4 - 4 - 4 4—
- 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 *
4 , ^ _ | _ _ | _ - | _
+
44 - 4 -
+
—
+
40 4 -
4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 -
4 - 4 -
4444 - 4 4 - 4 * 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 -
+
+
4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 +
+
+
+
+
+
+
4*
+
+
-
+
+
^
4-
4-
4-
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
4-
+ = rising; o = unchanged;- = falling.
•'-Data are not seasonally adjusted.
The 23 components shown here include 18 of the more important industries and 5 composites
the industries used in computing the diffusion index in table 4.
3
Based on 78 components to November 1964 and on 77 components thereafter.
2
representing an additional 23 of
55
TABLE
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
FEBRUARY
1966
bed
SELECTED DIFFUSION INDEXES AND COMPONENTS—Continued
Directions of Change—Continued
9- montli span S
1-month spans
1965
1966
1966
1965
Diffusion index title and components
Out)
1-
D5. INITIAL CLAIMS FOR UNEMPLOYMENT
INSURANCE, STATE PROGRAMS 1
(26 area components)
Percent rising
47 labor market areas
Northeast region:
Boston (7)
Buffalo (19)
Newark (11)
New York (1)
Paterson (20)
Philadelphia (4)
Pittsburgh (9)
Providence (25)
North Central region:
Chicago (2)
Cincinnati (21)
Cleveland (10)
Columbus (26)
Detroit (5)
Indianapolis (23)
Kansas City (18)
Milwaukee (15)
Minneapolis (13)
St. Louis (8)
South region;
Atlanta (17)
Baltimore (12)
Dallas (16)
Houston (14)
West region:
Los Angeles (3)
Portland (24)
»
San Francisco (6)
Seattle (22)
f
1 =
f
«E
<E
S:
-^
-^
<C
6?
60
61
3/
38
79
—
5. j|
l||
<| |
+
GO
S7
O
/%
Z
O
SI
36
+
4-
4-
1%
—>
7?
<t
7Q
—,
cl
7Q
+
+
+
+
+
4
+
.
+
4
.
4-
+
+
4-
+
+
4.
4
.
+
—
4-
66
+
62
tj
CD
c.
TO
7C)
8l
<u
Q
TO
Q.
87
4,
70
+
+
H
+
+
+
+
4i
_i_
—
-f-
60
i
+
+
+
0
CL
Feb-Nov
:
+
+
+
4
-
4
4-
-
4
-
4-
+
4 - 4 -
4
-
4
-
+
•t-
- Arising; o ^unchanged; +-falling. The signs are reversed because this series usually rises when general business activity falls and falls when business rises.
Data used are for the week ending nearest the 22d of the month.
1
Series components are seasonally adjusted by the Bureau of the Census before the direction of change is determined. (See
"Seasonal and Related Statistical Adjustments", page 2.) The percent rising is "based on 47 labor market areas. Directions of
change are shown separately for only the 26 largest areas. The number in parentheses indicates the size rank for each labor
market area.
56
Section THREE
charts and tables
REFERENCE CYCLES
Currenf expansion compared with expansions in
earlier business cycles
PERCENT CHANGES FOR CURRENT AND EARLIER
EXPANSIONS
Percent of reference peak levels
Percent change from reference trough levels
57
CHART
CYCLICAL COMPARISONS
FEBRUARY
1966
bed
COMPARISONS OF REFERENCE CYCLES
Percent
PERIOD COVERED
—-— Nov. 1948 to Aug. 1954 (Reference trough:
Oct. 1949)
-Reference trough dates
July 1953 to Apr. 1958 (Reference trough: Aug. 1954)
.„„.„ July 1957 to Feb. 1961 (Reference trough:
Apr. 1958)
—— May 1960 to present (Reference trough: Feb. 1961)
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 M 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 M I I I I [ 1 1 1 M 11 [ 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 I I 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
Porront
rciLclll
Reference trough dates
23. Industrial
130
materials prices
120
110
17. Ratio, price
110
to unit Jabor
cost, mfg.
100* 2
105
90
100*
80
70
95
24. New orders, mach.
and equip, indus.
19. Stock prices, 500
common stocks
200
190
180
170
160
150
210
200
190
180
170
160
150
140
140 "
130 *
130
120
110
110
100*
120
100*
90
80
-Uii
-12 -6
0 +6 +12 +18 +24 +30 +36+42 +48 +54 +60
Months from reference troughs
-12 -6
0 +6+12+18 +24 +30 +36 +42 +48 +54 +60
Months from reference troughs
Table 2 shows latest month in current (1961) expansion. Changes for this month and comparable months of previous expansions are shown in table 6. Various scales are used. Scale L-l is a logarithmic scale with 1 cycle
in a given distance; scale L-2 is a logarithmic scale with 2 cycles in that distance, etc.
^Reference peak level. * Point at which this expansion reached a new reference peak.
OPoint at which a new reference trough was reached.
§
CHART
bed
FEBRUARY
CYCLICAL COMPARISONS
1966
COMPARISONS OF REFERENCE CYCLES—Continued
PERIOD COVERED
Nov. 1948 to Aug. 1954 (Reference trough:
Oct. 1949)
July 1953 to Apr. 1958 (Reference trough:
July 1957 to Feb. 1961 (Reference trough:
—— May 1960 to present (Reference trough:
Reference trough dates
Aug. 1954)
Apr.
1958)
Feb. 1961)
43. Unemployment rate, total
(percent unemployed, inverted)
41. Employees in nonagri
establishments
Percent
55.
Wholesale prices exc.
115
farm prod, and foods
110
105 i
2
«"!
100*
95
J
-12-6
0
+6 +12 +18 +24 +30 +36 +42 +48 +54 +60
Months from reference troughs
85
-12-6
0
+6 +12+18 +24 +30 +36 +42 +48 +54 +60
Months from reference troughs
Table 2 shows latest month in current (1961) expansion. Changes for this month and comparable months ot previous expansions are shown in table 6. Various scales are used. Scale L-l is a logarithmic scale with 1 cycle
in a given distance; scale L-2 is a logarithmic scale with 2 cycles in that distance, etc. ^Lines represent actual data rather than percentages of reference peak levels.
*Reference peak level,
*
Point at which this expansion reached a new reference peak.
O Point at which a new reference trough was reached.
59
CHART
FEBRUARY 1966
CYCLICAL COMPARISONS
bed
COMPARISONS OF REFERENCE CYCLES—Continued
'""I
I'""!
I
|"m|'""pTTTl|"TTTJimi|im
PERIOD COVERED
—-— 4th Q. 1948 to 3rd Q. 1954 (Reference trough:
2nd Q. 1953 to 2nd 0. 1958 (Reference trough:
3rd Q. 1954)
3rd Q. 1957 to 1st Q. 1961 (Reference trough: 2nd Q. 1958)
,
2nd Q. 1960 to present (Reference trough: 1st Q. 1961)
TNI nil
Reference trough dates
4th 0, 1949)
„
1111111111111j
Percent
160
61. Business expenditures,
new plant and equipment
T
Percent
• Reference trough dates
49. GNP in current dollars
-, 140
- 135
130
"120s f
115
110
105
100*
95
67. Bank rates on
50.
GNP in 1958 dollars
130
short-term business loans
125
120
115
110,
-o
.•o
105
100*
95
mil 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 n
-12 -6
0
+6 +12 +18 +24 +30 +36 +42 +48 +54+60
Months rrom
from rerercnce
reference trougns
troughs
-12-6
0
+6 +12+18 +24 +30 +36 +42 +48 +54 +60
Months from reference troughs
Table 2 shows latest quarter in current (1961) expansion. Changes for this quarter and comparable quarters of previous expansions are shown in table 6
in a given distance; scale 1-2 is a logarithmic scale with 2 cycles in that distance, etc.
*f Latest data anticipated.
*Reference peak level.
if Point at which this expansion reached a new reference peak.
O Point at which a new reference trough was reached.
60
Various scales are used. Scale L-l is a logarithmic scale with 1 cycle
bed
FEBRUARY 1966
CYCLICAL COMPARISONS
CHART
COMPARISONS OF REFERENCE CYCLES—Continued
r"T" l T m T m T rrnr r rT Y riI1 7
PERIOD COVERED
-«
Nov. 1948 to Aug. 1954 (Reference trough: Oct. 1949)
July 1953 to Apr. 1958 (Reference trough:
Aug. 1954)
95. Surplus or deficit, Fed. income and product
July 1957 to Feb. 1961 (Reference trough: Apr. J958)
I
»
• May 1960 to present (Reference trough:
1""1]1
Reference trough dates
acct. (ann. rate, bit. dol.)1
Feb. 1961)
inn inn i n n i n n i n n n 1 1 1 n n i n n i n 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 n n i 1 1 n i n n p
n+20
,
Reference trough dates
-i 115
+10
62. Labor cost
per unit of output, mfg.
+5
-5
-HO
98.
Change in money supply and time deposits
(ann. rate, percent. 6-term moving avg.)1
+10
+8
64. Book value of mfrs:
inventories
-1-6
•32
+4
+2
-2
-12-6
0 ^6 +12+18 +24 +30 +36 +42 +48 +54 +60
Months from reference troughs
-12-6
0
+6 +12+18 +24 +30 +36 +42 +48 +54 +60
Months from reference troughs
Table 2 shows latest month in current (1961) expansion. Changes for this month and comparable months of previous expansions are shown in table 6. Various scales are used. Scale L-l is a logarithmic scale with 1
cycle in a given distance; scale L-2 is a logarithmic scale with I cycles in that distance, etc. ! Lines represent actual data rather than percentages of reference peak levels.
* Reference peak level. -^-Point at which this expansion reached a new reference peak.
O Point at which a new reference trough was reached.
61
IABLE
CYCLICAL COMPARISONS
FEBRUARY
1966
bed
COMPARISONS FROM REFERENCE PEAK LEVELS AND REFERENCE TROUGH DATES
Selected series
Month
after
reference
trough1
Percent of reference peak prior to reference expansion beginning in-
Nov.
1927
July
1924
July
1921
75.2
52.0
38.1
23.6
97.4
42.6
49.2
106.1
(NA)
39.7
15.9
186.9
47.8
12.2
105. B
216.0
91.1
43.2
(NAJ
26.7
55.9
(NA)
13.7
98.0
63.1
122.4
115.9
127.0
46.4
77.1
88.7
94.1
205.7
80.2
137.9
141.6
209.3
(NA)
73.2
111.8
(NA)
(NA)
52.9
(NA)
36.7
75.6
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
54.7
42.4
(NA)
(NA)
111.5
(NA)
301.6
79.1
(NA)
(NA)
94.0
(NA)
137.1
5B.1
(NA)
(NA)
106.5
-2.6
114.5
132.5
108.1
-2.4
.125.7
138.2
132.6
(NA)
195.7
196.5
88.9
-17.9
74.9
BO. 8
64.5
(NA)
6.1.9
57.8
101.5
(NA)
124-5
123.6
87.0
(NA)
116.5
(NA)
118.9
141.9
129.0
121.1
115.2
149.2
133.2
128.8
123.9
145.6
135.6
126.1
(NA)
165.7
197.6
134.1
95.5
57.0
78.6
82.9
77.6
51.7
59.0
64.9
126.0
132.6
1.28.2
114.7
(NA)
108.1
(NA)
112.5
102,2
100.9
111.5
108.5
112.2
91.0
69.8
86.3
64.7
54th
63d
145.3
162.1
100.5
106.0
108.9
119.6
120.9
115.2
(NA)
(NA)
83.3
48.4
25.4
20.3
118.5
1.23.2
66.7
69.0
59th
58th
58th
57th
97.6
125.0
162.6
98.5
100.9
110.9
147.0
103.5
110.9
117.1
163.5
130.6
114-7
145.1
265.8
134.8
137.7
156.6
62.9
(NA)
96.7
109.5
127.5
53.3
69.7
(NA)
(NA)
101.0
84.5
(NA)
(NA)
109.6
74-4
(NA)
(NA)
82. 4
54th
57th
-8.5
+10.50
-5.8
+6.52
+2.0
+0.90
-10.0
+5.50
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(MA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
Mar.
1933
Feb,
1961
Apr.
1958
Aug.
1954
Oct.
1949
June
1938
59th
58th58th
59th
103.8
124.3
182.1
154.8
101,3
103.6
103.7
135.1
99.0
86.3
84.3
132.4
99.5
73-4
87.3
145.2
113.3
194.0
290.5
300.8
64.5
46.3
27.6
51.0
59th
120.8
125.3
113.0
134.7
59.9
58th
58th
59th
163.2
110.7
81.1
120.1
131.8
51.7
130.6
179.3
64.6
131.6
144-6
65.3
54th
59th
59th
59th
59th
59th
160.1
105.2
169.0
115-8
151.7
115.8
122.3
99.8
135.4
90.9
126.9
128.3
128.4
100.8
245.9
107.2
155.9
111.9
41. Employees in nonagricultural establishments . . .
43. Unemployment rate (percent), total (inverted) 3 . .
47 Industrial production
49 GNP in current dollars (Q)
59th
59th
59th
57th
114.2
+1.2
136.4
138.1
105.9
-1.5
119.3
129.3
50 GNP in 1958 dollars (Q)
51 Bank debits all SMSA's except N.Y.
52 Personal income
54 Sales of retail stores
55. Wholesale prices except farm products and
foods
*
57th
59th
59th
59th
127.5
164.0
137.3
135-7
59th
61. Business expenditures, new plant and
equipment (Q):
a Actual.
b Anticipated4
62.
64.
66.
67.
NBER LEADING INDICATORS
1. Average workweek of production workers,
7. Private nonfarm housing starts
9. Construction contracts, commercial and
industrial, floor space 2
13 New business incorporations
14. Liabilities of business failures (inverted)
17. Ratio, price to unit labor cost, manufacturing . .
19. Stock prices 500 common stocks
23 Industrial materials prices
24. New orders, machinery and equipment industries
29. New building permits private housing
21.0
NBER ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
NBER LAGGING INDICATORS
Labor cost per unit of output, manufacturing . . .
Book value of manufacturers' inventories
.....
Consumer installment debt
Bank rates on short-term business loans (Q) . . .
OTHER SELECTED U.S. SERIES
95. Surplus or deficit, Fed. income and prod.acct.(Q)3
98. Change in money supply and time deposits 3'5 .
NOTE: For series with a "months for cyclical dominance" (MCD).of "1" or "2" (series 19, 23, 41, 47, 52, 54, 55, 62, 64, and 66), the value for the month indicated in the
1st column (month after reference trough) is divided by the value for the reference peak month. Similarly, the reference peak quarter is used as the percentage base for
quarterly series (series 16, 49, 50, 61, and 67). For series with an MCD of "3" or more (series 1, 2, 3, 6, 7, 9, 13,,14, 17, 24, 29, and 51), the average of the 3 months centered
on the reference peak month is used as the base. See MCD footnote to appendix C. For all earlier expansions except the one beginning in June 1938, the peak had been
passed and a reference contraction was underway by the month indicated in the 1st column. See appendix A for the reference peak dates
NA =^not available.
on period from February 1961 (current trough) to latest month for which data are available. Measures for shorter time
2
spans can be found in earlier issues of BUSINESS CYCLE DEVELOPMENTS.
Except for 1961, changes are computed in a 3-term mov3
ing average of the seasonally adjusted series.
Measures are differences from the reference peak levels.
^Anticipated
expenditures (2d quarter 1966) are used for computing the entry shown for the current expansion only. Actual expenditures are
5
used for all other entries.
Changes are computed in a 6-term moving average of the seasonally adjusted series.
62
bed minor ,966
CYCLICAL COMPARISONS
H
COMPARISONS FROM REFERENCE TROUGH LEVELS AND REFERENCE TROUGH DATES
Selected series
Month
after
reference
trough !
Percent change from reference trough of expansion beginning inFeb.
1961
Apr.
1958
Aug.
1954
Oct.
1949
June
1938
Mar.
1933
Nov.
1927
July
1924
+5.3
+5.9
+98.5 +245.4
(NA)
+58.7
-5.2 +164.9
July
1921
NBER LEADING INDICATORS
1. Average workweek of production workers,
59th
58th
58th
59th
+5,4
+1-5.0
+110.3
+65.3
+4.5
+14-0
+79.6
+53.1
+1.5
+18.9
+25.5
+47.8
+0/3
-17.3
+30.2
+67.6
+29.2
+117.2
(NA)
(NA)
+13.1
-25.3
+165.5
-23,3
-28.9
46 2
-76.4
59th
+20.8
+29.1
-3.5
-3.9
-36.2
+216.4
-88.3
+6.8
+120.6
58th
53th
59th
+75.2
+19.1
-17.1
+52.7
+38.1
-31.3
+34.8
+51.8
-32.2
+52.5
+38.3
-44.3
+84.5
-49.8
(NA)
+123.0
-29.4
(NA)
-84.2
-5.6
-31.5
+76.2
+56.5
+40.9
+70.2
+6.6
+24.4
54th
59th
59th
59th
59th
59th
+82.4
+6.2
+50.1
+21.3
+60.0
+19.4
+57.4
+5.3
+55.1
+4.7
+43.8
+26.2
+34.0
+3.1
+94.4
+7.2
+67.4
-6.4
+8.8
-3.3
+97.9
+6.8
+57.3
-11.5
(NA)
(NA)
+16.5
+65.3
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
+77.2
+82.2
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
-58.3
-56.5
(NA)
(NA)
+107.1
(NA)
+189.6
-5.7
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
+85.5
+38.9
(NA)
(NA)
41. Employees in nonagricultural establishments . .
43. Unemployment rate (percent), total (inverted)3.
47 Industrial production
49 GNP in current dollars (0)
59th
59th
59th
57th
+16.4
+2.8
+44.7
+38.4
+10.3
+1.7
+38.8
+31.6
+10.3
+0.9
+25.9
+33.5
+13.9
+1.7
+37.4
+43.0
+48.0
(NA)
+186.5
+123.1
+29.9
+7.5
+55.2
+60.3
-32.9
(NA)
-34.3
-42.4
+16.8
(NA)
+51.5
+26.5
+26.4
(NA)
+70.6
+40.3
50. GNP in 1958 dollars (Q)
51 Bank debits all SMSA's except N Y
52 Personal income
54. Sale's of retail stores
55. Wholesale prices except farm products and
foods
57th
59th
59th
59th
+29.4
+60.1
+36.0
+38.4
+23.1
+46.5
+28.8
,+23.1
+17.9
+46.8
+33.2
+29.7
+26.0
+51.7
+42.2
+26.1
(NA)
+98.4
+121.9
+64.5
+32.5
+49.5
+59.8
+57.4
-24.1
-52.4
-41.5
-35.1
+26.4
+36.9
+28.1
+14.7
+39.0
+39.4
+46.7
+20.0
59th
+2.3
+1.4
+12.4
+14.3
+18.7
+25.6
-25.0
-5.5
+2.2
61. Business expenditures, new plant and
equipment (Q):
a. Actual
.
b. Anticipated"5
54th
63d
+55.8
+73.9
+25.2
+31.9
+14.0
+25.2
+51.2
+44.0
(NA)
(NA)
+385.5
+182.1
-71.1
76 8
+69.8
+76.5
+94.3
+101.0
62, Labor cost per unit of output, manufacturing. . .
64. Book value of manufacturers' inventories
66. Consumer installment debt
*
67. Bank rates on short-term business loans (Q). . .
59th
58th
58th
57th
-3.4
+26.4
+57.3
+6.0
-5.2
+15.1
+45.8
+19.9
+7.8
+25.3
+58.2
+36.8
+18.7
+55.4
+112.3
+34.3
+32.7
+65.4
-32.5
(NA)
+31.8
+84.9
+166.7
-31.6
-29.2
(NA)
(NA)
+4.9
-17.8
(NA)
(NA)
+ 24-9
-17.3
(NA)
(NA)
-23.5
54th
57th
+2.0
+5.02 '
+9.2
+0.46
+0.8
-2.10
-3.7
+4.68
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
2 Accession rate manufacturing
3 Layoff rate manufacturing (inverted)
6 New orders durable goods industries
7 Private nonfarm housing starts
9. Construction contracts, commercial and
industrial floor space2
13 New business incorporations
14. Liabilities of business failures (inverted) ....
16 Corporate profits after taxes (0)
17. Ratio, price to unit labor cost, manufacturing. .
23 Industrial materials prices
24. New orders, machinery and equipment industries
-6.9
NBER ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
NBER LAGGING INDICATORS
OTHER SELECTED U.S. SERIES
95. Surplusor deficit, Fed. income and prod.acct.(Qf
98. Change in money supply and time deposits3*5
NOTE: For series with a "months for cyclical dominance" (MOD) of "1" or "2" (series 19, 23, 41, 47, 52,54, 55, 62, 64, and 66), the value for the month indicated in the
1st column (month after reference trough) is divided by the value for the reference trough month. Similarly, the reference trough quarter is used as the percentage base for
quarterly series (series 16, 49, 50,61, and 67). For series with an MCD of "3" or more (series 1,2,3,6,7,9,13,14,17,24,29, and 51), the average of the 3 months centered
on the reference trough month is used as the base. See MCD footnote to appendix C. For all earlier expansions except the one beginning in June 1938, the peak had been
passed and a reference contraction was underway by the month indicated in the 1st column. See appendix A for the reference peak dates.
NA=not available.
•"•Based on period from February 1961 (current trough) to latest month for which data are available. Measures for shorter time
spans can be found in earlier issues of BUSINESS CYCLE DEVELOPMENTS.
Except for 1961, changes are computed in a 3-term mov3
4
ing average of the seasonally adjusted series.
Measures are differences from the reference trough levels.
Anticipated
expenditures (2d quarter 1966) are used for computing the entry shown for the current expansion only.
Actual expenditures are
5
used for all other entries.
Changes are computed in a 6-term moving average of the seasonally adjusted series.
63
Appendix A.-BUSINESS CYCLE EXPANSIONS AND CONTRACTIONS IN THE UNITED STATES: 1854 TO 1961
Duration in months
Contraction
(trough from
previous
peak)
Trough
Cycle
(trough to
peak)
Trough from
previous
trough
Peak from
previous
peak
Peak
December 1854
December 1858
June 1861
December 1867
December 1870
March 1879.
June 1857
October 1860. . .
April 1865
June 1869
October 1873
March 1882
(X)
18
8
32
18
65
30
22
46
18
34
36
(X)
48
30
78
36
99
(X)
40
54
50
52
101
May 1885
April 1888
May 1891
June 1894
June 1897
December 1900
March 1887
July 1890
January 1893, .
December 1895
June 1899
September 1902
38
13
10
17
18
18
22
27
20
18
24
21
74
35
37
37
36
42
60
40
30
35
42
39
August 1904
June 1908
January 1912
December 1914
March 1919
July 1921
May 1907
January 1910
January 1913 . .
August 1918
January 1920
May 1923
23
13
24
23
7
18
33
19
12
44
10
22
44
46
43
35
51
28
56
32
36
67
17
40
July 1924
November 1927
March 1933
June 1938
October 1945
October 1949
October 1926
August 1929
May 1937
February 1945 ........
November 1948
July 1953
14
13
43
13
8
11
27
21
50
80
37
45
36
40
64
63
88
48
41
34
93
93
45
56
August 1954
April 1958
February 1961
July 1957
May 1960
13
9
9
35
25
(X)
58
44
34
48
34
(X)
Average, all cycles:
26 cycles, 1854-1961
10 cycles, 1919-1961
4 cycles, 1945-1961
19
15
10
30
35
36
49
50
46
X
49
2
54
3
Average, peacetime cycles:
22 cycles, 1854-1961
8 cycles, 1919-1961
3 cycles, 1945-1961
20
16
10
26
28
32
45
45
42
4
46
5
48
6
46
42
NOTE: Underscored figures are the wartime expansions (Civil War, World Wars I and II, and Korean
War), the postwar contractions, and the full cycles that include the wartime expansions.
a
3
5
25 cycles, 1857-1960.
4 cycles, 1945-1960.
7 cycles, 1920-1960.
2
4
6
9 cycles, 1920-1960.
21 cycles, 1857-1960.
3 cycles, 1945-1960.
Source: National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
65
Appendix B,-SPECIFIC TROUGH AND PEAK DATES FOR SELECTED BUSINESS INDICATORS
Specific trough dates for reference expansions beginning in —
Selected series
Apr.
1958
Feb.
1961
Aug.
1954
Oct.
1949
June
1938
Mar.
1933
Nov.
1927
July
1924
July
1921
NBER LEADING INDICATORS
1. Average workweek, production workers, mfg...
9. Construction contracts, commercial and
industrial
13 New business incorporations
17. Ratio, price to unit labor cost, mfg
19. Stock prices 500 common stocks. .»..
23. Industrial materials prices
24. New orders, machinery and equipment indus...
29. New building permits, private housing
'54 Apr.
Dec,
'60 Apr. '58 Apr.
May
Jan.
Mar.
Oct.
Dec.
Nov.
Dec.
'61
'61
'61
'60
'60
'60
'60
June
Nov.
Apr.
Dec.
Apr.
Feb.
Feb.
'58
'57
'58
»57
'58
'58
'58
(NSC)
(NSC)
Mar. '54
Sep. '53
Feb. '54
Mar. '54
Sep. '53
Aug.
Feb.
July
June
June
Apr.
Jan.
Feb. <61
May '61
Feb. '61
4thQ '60
IstQ '61
(NSC)
Dec. '60
Apr. '61
May
July
Apr.
IstQ
IstQ
Feb.
May
Mar.
'58
'58
'58
'58
'58
'58
'58
'58
Aug.
Sep.
Apr.
2ndQ
2ndQ
Apr.
Sep.
Jan.
'54
'54
'54
'54
'54
'54
'54
'54
3rdQ
Apr.
Aug.
2ndQ
'58
'59
'58
'58
IstQ
Apr.
Sep.
IstQ
'55
'55
'54
'55
'49 Jan.
'38 June '32 Apr.
'28 July '24 Feb. '21
July '24
June '24
(NA)
Oct. '23
June '24
(NA)
(NA)
Mar. '21
Jan. '21
(NA)
Aug. '21
July '21
(NA)
(NA)
Mar.
May
July
IstQ
3rdQ
Mar.
Mar.
Mar.
'33 Jan. '28 July '24
(NA)
(NA)
'33
'32 Nov. '27 July '24
(NSC)
(NSC)
'33
(NSC)
(NSC)
'32
'33 4thQ '26 2ndQ '24
(NA)
(NA)
'33
(NSC)
(NSC)
'33
July '21
(NA)
Apr. '21
4thQ '21
(NA)
2ndQ '21
(NA)
Mar. '22
IstQ
July
May
3rdQ
'33 4thQ '27 3rdQ '24 4thQ '21
(NSC) Apr. '22
(NSC)
'33
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
'33
'31 4thQ '27 4thQ '24 3rdQ '22
Sep. '38
Sep. '39
(NA)
Apr. '38
June '38
(NA)
(NA)
Oct. '32 Sep. '27
Dec. '34 Dee. '26
(NA)
(NA)
(NSC)
June '32
July '32 Aug. '28
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
Oct. '49
Oct. '49
Oct. '49
4thQ '49
2ndQ «49
July '49
Oct. '49
(NSC)
June
June
May
2ndQ
IstQ
May
June
May
'38
»38
'38
'38
'38
'38
'38
'38
4thQ
Aug.
Jan.
IstQ
3rdQ
June
June
2ndQ
»38
'40
'39
'40
'49
'49
'49
'49
'49
'49
'49
NBER ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
41. Employees in nonagricultural establishments.
43. Unemployment rate, total (inverted)
47, TnflnstriRl product-ion ,,,.,... * ..............
49 . GNP in current dollars (Q)
50. GNP in 1958 dollars (Q)
52 . Personal income
53. Labor income in mining, mfg., construction..
54. Sales of retail stores
NBER LAGGING INDICATORS
61.
62.
64.
67.
Business expenditures, new plant and equip.. 2ndQ
Labor cost per unit of 'output, manufacturing. Sep.
June
Book value of manuf acturers f inventories
Bank rates on short-term business loans (Q). 4thQ
'61
'61
'61
'61
'49
'50
'50
'50
Specific peak dates for reference contractions beginning in —
Selected series
May
1960
July
1957
July
1953
Nov.
1948
May"
1937
Aug.
1929
Oct.
1926
May
1923
Jan.
1920
NHER LEADING INDICATORS
1. Average workweek, production workers, mfg...
9. Construction contracts, commercial and
industrial
13 . New business incorporations
17. Ratio j price to unit labor cost, mfg
19. Stock prices, 500 common stocks
23 . Industrial materials prices
»
24. New orders, machinery and equipment indus...
29. New building permits, private housing
(NSC) Dec. '36 Oct.
May
'59 Nov. '55 Mar. '53
June
Apr.
May
July
Nov.
July
Nov.
'60
'59
'59
'59
'59
'59
'58
Mar.
Feb.
Oct.
July
Dec.
Nov.
Feb.
'56
'56
'55
'56
'55
'56
'55
(NSC) Mar.
(NSC) July
Feb. '51 May
Jan. '53 June
Feb. '51 Jan.
Feb. '51 Apr.
July '50 Oct.
Apr. '60
Feb. '60
Jan. '60
2ndQ '60
IstQ '60
(NSC)
May '60
Apr. '60
Mar.
Mar.
Feb.
3rdQ
3rdQ
Aug.
Aug.
Aug.
'57
'57
<57
'57
'57
'57
'57
'57
June
July
July
2ndQ
2ndQ
Oct.
July
Mar.
3rdQ
Apr.
Sep.
4thQ
'57
'58
<57
'57
3rdQ
Mar.
Sep.
4thQ
'29 Nov.
'25 Nov. '22
'46
'46
'A*
'48
'48
'48
'47
July '37
Dec. '36
(NA)
Feb. '37
Mar. '37
(NA)
(NA)
Jan. '29 Sep. '25
Jan. '29 Oct. '25
(NA)
(NA)
(NSC)
Sep. '29
Mar. '29 Nov. '25
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
'53
'53
'53
'53
'53
'53
'53
'53
Sep. '48
Jan. '48
July '46
4thQ '48
4thQ '48
Oct. '48
Aug. '48
(NSC)
July '37
July '37
May !37
3rdQ '37
3rdQ '37
June '37
May '37
Sep. '37
Aug.
'53
'54
'53
'53
4thQ
May
Jan.
2ndQ
3rdQ
Dec.
Oct.
3rdQ
Aug. '22
Apr. '23
(NA)
Mar. '23
Mar. '23
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
Dec. '19
Dee. '19
(NA)
July '19
Apr. '20
(NA)
(NA)
NBER ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
41. Employees in nonagricultural establishments.
43. Unemployment rate, total (inverted)
47 . Industrial production
49. GNP in current dollars (Q)
50. GNP in 1958 dollars (Q)
52 . Personal income
53. Labor income in mining, mfg., construction..
54. Sales of retail stores
'29 Jan. '26 June '23 Jan. »20
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
July '29 Mar. '27 May '23 Feb. '20
(NA)
(NSC)
(NSC)
3rdQ '29
(NA)
(NSC)
(NSC)
3rdQ '29
(NA)
Aug. '29 2ndQ '26 IstQ '24
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
Sep. '29
(NSC) July '20
(NSC)
Sep. '29
NBER LAGGING INDICATORS
61.
62.
64.
67.
Business expenditures, new plant and equip.. 2ndQ
Labor cost per unit of output, manufacturing. Mar."
Book value of manufacturers1 inventories
Sep.
Bank rates on short-term business loans (Q). 4thQ
'60
'61
'60
'59
'48
'49
'49
'49
'37 2ndQ '29 4thQ '26 2ndQ '23 2ndQ '20
(NSC)
(NSC) Oct. '23 Nov. '20
'37
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
'37 Jan. '30
'32 3rdQ '29 4thQ '26 3rdQ '23 4thQ '20
NOTE: Specific trough and peak dates are the'actual dates when individual series reached a trough or peak as distinguished
from reference dates which are those dates designated as the trough or peak of business activity as a whole. This table shows,
for selected indicators, the specific dates corresponding to reference dates in 9 recent business cycles.
NA
66
Not available.
NSC
No specific cycle corresponding to reference date.
Appendix C.-AVERAGE CHANGES AND RELATED MEASURES FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES
Part 1.-Average Percentage Changes
i/5
Monthly series
Period
covered
CI
I
C
1/5
MCD
for
MCD
span
Average duration of run
(ADR)
1
CI
I
C
MCD
NBER LEADING INDICATORS
1.
2
30.
3
4.
5.
Avg. workweek, prod. workers, mfg
Jan. ' 53-Sep. '65 .48
.42
Accession rate, manufacturing
Tan f ^"3 c^-n T £,£; 4.75
4.47
Nonagri. placements, all industries... Jan. ' 53-Sep. '65 1.83 1.34
Layoff rate, manufacturing
Jan. ' 53-Sep.T 65 9.20 8.26
Temporary layoff, all industries
Jan. ' 53-Sep, ''6517.13 16.59
Average weekly initial claims, State
unemployment insurance
Jan ' 53-Sep '§5 4.95
4.38
6. New orders, durable goods industries.. Jan..' 53-Sep. '65. 3.76
3.33
24. New orders, mach. and equip. Indus.... Jan. < 53-Sep. ' 65 4.18 3.81
9. Construction contracts, commercial
and industrial
Jan. '53-Sep. '65 9.30
9.17
10. Contracts and orders, plant and equip. Jan. '53-Sep. '65 4.69 4.39
7. Private nonf arm housing starts.
May ' 59-Sep ' 657.16
7.08
29. New building permits, private housing. Jan. '53-Sep. '65 3,65
3.28
38 Index of net business formation
Jan. ' 53-Sep. '65 .79
.60
13. New business incorporations
Jan. '53-Sep. '65 2.49 2.18
14. Liabilities of "business failures
Jan. '53-Sep. '65 18.74 18.24
15. Large business failures
Jan. '53-Sep. '65 12.31 12.12
17. Ratio, price to unit labor cost, mfg.. Jan. ' 53-Sep. '65
19. Stock prices, 500 common stocks
Jan. '53-Sep. '65
37. Purchased materials, percent reporting
higher inventories
Jan. '53-Sep. '65
26. Buying policy production materials,
commitments 60 days or longer
Jan. '53-Sep. '65
32. Vendor performance, percent reporting
slower deliveries
Jan. '53-Sep. '65
23 Industrial materials prices
Jan ' 53-Sep '65
.19
1.40
1.09
3.42
3.64
2.23
3.20
1.23
2.41
4.55
3
4
2
3
5
.74
.84
.63
.77
.96
2.08
2.14
2.11
1.95
1.57
1.50
1.54
1.52
1.46
1.42
11.69
9.50
7.24
8.94
6.61
3.75
3.72
3.97
4.69
2.69
2.17
1.51
2.02
2.20
2
3
.95
.66
1.69
1.81
1,42
1.58
12.67
8.44
3.97
4.41
1.52
2.51
3
.88
1.83
1.60
10.86
3.41
.97
9.41
3.08
1.43
.39
7.91
1.29
2.54
.53
1.15
2.18
1.00
1.70 10.72
1.54
7.84
6
4
6
3
2
3
6
6
H
.84
C1)
.80
.66
.78
C1)
C1)
1.60
1.88
1.38
1.35
2.71
1.92
1.49
1.55
1.48
1,71
1.38
1,52
1,63
1.63
1.39
1.46
12.67
9.50
15.20
13.82
6.61
7.24
8.94
11.69
3.00
3.39
2.63
2.88
4.08
3.19
2.23
2.58
.59
2.49
.49
1.68
.25
1.64
1.92
1.02
3
2
.81
.57
2.20
2.37
1.79
1,58
6.61
9.50
4.55
3.97
6.46
5.24
2.84
1.85
3
.76
2.37
1.62
7.60
3.57
5.27
4.77
1.98
2.41
3
.77
1.88
1.63
8.94
3.49
7.47
1.31
5.79
1.04
4.00
.73
1.45
1.41
2
2
.95
.99
3.17
2.49
1.85
2.11
8.94
11.69
3.77
3.87
.30
.36
3.92
5.39
.14
.30
3.04
4.55
.26
.20
2.19
2.66
.55
1.50
1.39
1.71
1
2
2
2
.55
.80
.72
.91
4.90
2.01
2.54
3.41
1.46
1.60
1.60
1.56
16.89
25.83
8.16
7.82
4.90
3.42
3.95
4.00
4.19
3.00
2.19
1.87
3.29
2.30
.67
.81
1
1
.67
.81
4.90
3.10
1.75
1.39
7.60
8.94
4.90
3.10
.54
1.50
.26
.52
.76
.76
.64
.44
.63
.46
.71
2.34
.58
.82
1.67
1
3
1
1
2
.71
.58
.58
.82
.98
3.62
1.65
4.61
2.67
2.17
1.67 11.69
1.50 30.40
1.54 21.71
1.55 13.82
1.71 15.20
3.62
4.29
"4.61
2.67
3.51
.09
.13
.71
1
.71
3.90
1.54
.56
.53
.40
.19
.32
.49
1.28
.38
2
1
Jan. ' 53-Sep. '65 .56
.84
Jan. '53-Sep. '65
.33
.11
.51
.82
.65
.14
Federal cash payments to public
Jan. '53-Sep. '65 4.42 4.25
Federal cash receipts from public
Jan. '55-Dec.'64 3.87 3.80
Defense Dept oblig. , procurement.
Jan. '56-Sep. '65 27.42 27.34
Defense Department obligations, total. Jul.' 53-Sep. '65 13.86 13.59
Jan. '53-Sep. '65 24.51 24.35
Military contract awards in U.S
.82
.60
2.16
1.26
2.94
Jan. '53-Sep. '65 22.53 22.53
5.00
Jan. '53-Sep. '65 6.70
1.31
Jan. ' 53-Sep.f 65 1.65
Jan. '60-Sep. '65 1.44 1.31
2.08
Jan. '53-Sep. '65 2.46
.07
.11
Jul. '61-SeD '65
1.92
4.46
.93
.53
1.10
.11
NBER ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
41. Employees in nonagri. establishments.. Jan. '53-Sep. '65
42 . Total nonagri cultural employment
Jan. '53-Dec. '65
43 . Unemployment rate , total
Jan. '53-Dec. '65
40. Unemployment rate, married males
Nov. '54-Dec, '65
45. Average weekly insured unemployment
rate , State . . . .
Jan. '53-Sep. '65
46 Help-wanted advertising
Tan t^Y^ Qa-r\ t £.*Z
47. Industrial production
Jan. '53-Sep. '65 1.02
51. Bank debits, all SMSA's except N.Y
Jan. '53-Sep. '65 1.57
52 . Personal income
Jan. '53-Sep. '65
.51
53. Labor income in mining, mfg., constr.. Jan. '53-Sep. '65
.84
54. Sales of retail stores
Jan. '53-Sep. '65
.89
55. Wholesale prices except farm products
and foods
Jan. '53-Sep. '65
.16
8.00
3.90
2.41
.72
.38 10.13
6.61
1.57
1.63 21.71
3.51
10.13
1
1
.65
,14
8.94
11.69
1.49
1.63
13.82
21.71
8.94
11.69
5.16
6.37
12.68
10.77
8.28
6
6
6
6
6
C1)
C11)
C)
C11)
1.57
1.59
1.43
1.40
1.63
1.45
1.43
1.43
1.42
1.57
8.00
14.87
8.92
6.64
8.44
2.58
3.35
2.02
2.07
2.83
11.72
1,12
1.41
2.48
1.90
.65
6
2
2
4
3
1
1.57
2.53
.73
2.76
.98
.93
2.27
2.58
.87
.65 10.00
1.48
1.77
2.00
1.62
1.88
1.92
9.50
6.61
8.00
5.67
8.00
5.56
2.53
3.68
3.68
3.61
3.66
10.00
NBER LAGGING INDICATORS
62. Labor cost per unit of output, mfg
64. Book value of mfrs.! inventories
65. Book value of manufacturers' inventories of finished goods
66. Consumer installment debt
Jan. '53-Sep. '65
Jan. ' 53-Sep. '65
OTHER SELECTED U.S. SERIES
82
83
90
91.
92.
99 New orders, defense products
114 Treasury bill rate
115. Treasury bond yields
116 . Corporate bond yields
117. Municipal bond yields
118. Mortgage yields
C)
C1)
See footnotes at end of table.
67
Appendix C.-AVERAGE CHANGES AND RELATED MEASURES FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES-Continued
Part 1.— Average Percentage Changes—Continued
Period
covered
Monthly series
CI
I
C
I/C
MCD
I/C
for
MCD
span
Average duration of run
(ADR)
CI
I
C
MCD
OTHER SELECTED U.S. SERlES^-Con.
3.81
3.04
.15
6.64
1.45
3.56
2.87
.09
6.38
.54
,94
.80
.13
1.55
1.28
3.77
3.59
.69
4.12
.42
4
4
1
5
1
.91
.86
.69
.87
.42
1.78
1.83
5.63
1.55
5.63
1.66
1.62
1.54
1.52
1.57
14.10
10.83
16.89
8.00
10.86
4.06
3.34
5.63
3.15
5.63
.93
Jan. '53-Sep. '65
Jan. '53-Sep. '65 1.08
.86
Jan, '53-Sep. '65
Jan. ' 53-Sep. '65 1.51
Jan. '53-Sep. '65 1.45
Jan. '53-Sep. '65 1.50
1.73
Jan . ' 53-Sep . ' 65
.82
1.02
.77
1.33
1,38
1.40
1.23
.52
.42
.49
.66
.62
.72
1.22
1.58
2.41
1.55
2.02
2.24
1.96
1.01
2
3
2
3
3
3
2
.79
.86
.87
.64
.84
.67
.47
3.38
2.58
3.62
2.71
2.67
2.49
3.38
1.52
1.48
1.73
1.62
1.45
1.69
1.37
21.71
10.13
25.33
19.00
16.89
16.89
13.82
4.87
5.17
5.81
5.00
6.00
4.84
5.21
I
C
i/c
86, Exports, excluding military aid
Jan.'53-Oct. '64
87 . General imports
Jan. '53-Oct. '64
Si. Consumer prices
Jan. '53-Sep. '65
94 . Construction contracts, value
Jan. '53-Sep. '65
96. Unfilled orders, durable goods indus.. Jan. '53-Sep. '65
INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS OF
INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION
123. Canada
122 . United Kingdom
121. OECD European countries
125 . West Germany.
126. France
127. Italy
128 . Japan
•
I/C
Quarterly series
Period
covered
CI
QCD
for
QCD
span
Average duration of run
(ADR)
CI
I
C
QCD
NBER LEADING INDICATORS
11.
16.
18.
22.
New capital appropriations, mf g
Corporate profits after taxes
Profits per dollar of sales, mfg
Ratio, profits to income originating,
corporate, all industries
IQ'53-IIIQ'65 10.36
IQ'53-IIIQ'65 5.60
IQ'53-IIIQ'65
6.03
4.70
3.09
3.59
7.69
4.29
3.80
.61
.72
.95
1
1
1
.61
.72
.95
2.94
3.33
2.38
1.32
1.32
1.35
3.33
5.00
4.17
2.94
3.33
2.38
IQ'53-IIIQ'65
4.34
2.87
3.11
.92
1
.92
2.38
1.25
5.00
2,38
IQ'53-IIIQ'65
IQ'53-IIIQ'65
IQ'53-IIIQ'65
1.23
1.47
1.30
.38
.35
.31
1.09
1.39
1.26
.35
.25
.25
1
1
1
.35 3,33
.25 5.56
.25 10.00
1.28
1.22
1.16
IQ'53-IIIQ'65
3.21
.77
2.99
.26
1
.26
5.56
1.47
5.56
5.56
IQ'53-IIIQ'65
.84
.42
.67
.62
1
.62
2.94
1.22
5.56
2.94
IQ'53-IIIQ'65
1.99
.96
1.80
.54
1
.54
2.38
1.47
3.33
2.38
IQ'53-IIIQ'65 11.47
IQ'53-IIIQ'65 4.30
IQ'53-IIIQ'65 6.63
7.37
2.47
1.20
7.95
3.27
6.38
.93
.75
.19
1
1
1
.93
.75
.19
2.38
2.08
4.17
1.16
1.25
1.32
3.85
4.17
8.33
2.38
2.08
4.17
NBER ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
50. GNP in 1958 dollars. .
<49 . GNP in current dollars
57. Final sales
3.33
5.56
7.14' 5.56
10.00 10.00
NBER LAGGING INDICATORS
61. Business expenditures, new plant and
equipment
68, Labor cost per dollar of real corporate GNP
67. Bank rates on short-term business
loans
OTHER SELECTED U.S. SERIES
110 . Total private borrowing
111. Corporate gross savings
97. Backlog of capital appro., mfg
1
Not computed for series when MCD is "6" or more.
The following are brief definitions of the measures shown
in this table. More complete explanations appear in Electronic Computers and Business Indicators, by Julius ShisMn,
issued as Occasional Paper 57 by the National Bureau of Economic Research, 1957 (reprinted from Journal of Business, October 1957.
"CI", is the average month-to-month (or quarter-to-quarter)
percentage change, _without regard to sign, in the seasonally
adjusted series. "I" is the same for the irregular component,
obtained by dividing the cyclical component into the seasonally adjusted series. "C" is the 7 same for the cyclical
68
component, a smooth, flexible moving average of the seasonally
adjusted series.
"MCD" (months for cyclical dominance) provides an estimate
of the appropriate time span over which to observe eyclieal
movements in a monthly series. It is small for smooth aeries
and large for irregular series. In deriving MCD, percentage
changes are computed separately for the irregular component
and the cyclical component over 1-month spans (Jan.-Feb., Feb.Mar., etc.), 2-month spans (Jan.-Mar., Feb.-Apr., etc.), up to
5-month spans. Averages, without regard to sign, are then
computed for the changes over each span. MCD is the shortest
span in months for which the average percentage change (without regard to sign) in the cyclical component is larger than
the average percentage change (without regard to sign) in the
irregular component, and remains so. Thus, it indicates the
point at which fluctuations in the seasonally adjusted series
become dominated by cyclical rather than irregular movements.
Since changes are not computed for spans greater than 5 months,
all series with an MOD greater than "5" are shown as "6".
Similarly, "QCD" provides an estimate of the appropriate time
span over which to observe cyclical movements in quarterly
series.
It is the shortest span (in quarters) for which the
average percentage change (without regard to sign) in the cyclical component is larger than the average percentage change
(without regard to sign) in the irregular component, and remains so.
"I/C" is a .measure of the relative smoothness(small values)
or irregularity (large values) of the seasonally adjusted series. For monthly series, it is shown for 1-month £pans and
for spans of the period of MOD. When MCD is "6", no I/C_ratio
is shown for the MCD period.
For quarterly series, I/C is
shown for 1-quarter spans and QCD spans.
"Average Duration of Run" (ADR) is another measure of
smoothness and is equal to the average number of consecutive
monthly changes in the same direction in any series of observations.
When there is no change between 2 months, a change
in the same direction as the preceding change is assumed. The
ADR is shown for the seasonally adjusted series CI, irregular
component I, cyclical component C, and the MCD curve. The MCD
curve is a moving average (with.the number of terms equal to
MCD) of the seasonally adjusted series.
A comparison of these measures of ADR with the expected ADR
of a random series gives an indication of whether the changes
approximate those of a random series. Over 1-month intervals
in a random series, the expected value of the ADR is 1.5. The
actual value of ADR falls between 1.36 and 1.75 about 95 percent of the time. Over 1-month intervals in a moving average
(MCD) of a random series, the expected value of ADR is 2.0.
For example, the ADR of CI is 1.65 for the series on bank
debits, all SYISA's except New York (series 51). This indicates
that 1-month changes in the seasonally adjusted series, on the
average, reverse sign about as often as expected in a random series. The ADR measures shown in the next two columns,
1.50 for I and 30.40 for C, suggest that the seasonally adjusted series has been successfully separated into an essentially random component and a cyclical (nonrandom) component.
Finally, ADR is 4.29 for the MCD moving average. This indicates that a 3-month moving average of the seasonally adjusted
series (3 months being the MCD span) reverses direction, on
the average, about every 4 months. The increase in the ADR
from 1.65 for CI to 4.29 for the MCD moving average indicates
that, for this series, month-to-month changes in the MCD moving
average usually reflect the underlying cyclical trend movements
of the series, whereas the month-to-month changes in the seasonally adjusted series usually do not.
Appendix C.-AVERAGE CHANGES AND RELATED MEASURES FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERlES-Continued
Part 2.—Average Unit Changes
i/c
Monthly series
Period
covered
Unit of
measure
CI
I
i/c
C
MCD for
MCD
span
Average duration of
run (ADR)
CI
I
C
MCD
8.94
2.79
31. Change in book value, manufacturing
and trade inventories
Jan. '53-Sep. '65 Ann. rate,
bil. dol.. 3.60 3.47
.74
20. Change in book value of manufacturers '
inventories of materials, supplies... Jan. '53- Sep. '65
.29
do
1.51
1.44
25. Change in unfilled orders, dur. goods. Jan. '53-Sep. '65 Bil. dol...
.48
.46
.13
84. Federal cash surplus or deficit
Jan. '55-Dec. '64 Ann. rate,
bil. dol.. • 4.34 4.22
.82
93. Free reserves
Jan. '53-Sep. '65 Mil. dol... 1 98.01 78.89 46.86
85 . Change in money supply
Jan. '53-Sep. '65 Ann. rate,
3.12
percent. . . 3.11
.29
do
98. Change, money supply and time deposits Jan.1 53-Sep.r 65
.29
2.53
2.52
112. Change in business loans. . '.
Aug. '59-Sep. '65 Ann. rate,
bil. dol.. 1.39 1.35
.35
.79
.31
.87
do
113. Change in consumer installment debt... Jan. '53-Sep. '65
88. Merchandise trade balance
Jan. '53-Jun. '62 Mil. dol... 58.44 55.87 17.28
Quarterly series
Period
covered
21. Change in business inventories, all
Industrie s
IQ'53-IIIQ'65
95. Balance, Fed. income and product acct. IQ'53-IIIQ'65
89a U.S. balance of payments (liquidity).. IQ'53-IIIQ'65
Unit of
measure
1
5
4.97
3.51
6 C1) 1.67 1.50
4 .98 1.69 1.62
5.16
1.68
5
3
10.88
8.78
C
3.87
2.56
3.23
I/C
Ann. rate,
bil. dol.. 2.28
1.44 1.00
1,43
2.49 1.35
.76
1.78
do
Mil. dol... 340.64 225.64 216.94 1.04
1
Not computed for series when MCD is "6" or more.
The measures in the above table are computed by an additive
method to avoid the distortion caused by zero and negative
data. Thus, "CI" is the average month-to-month (or quarterto-quarter) change in the seasonally adjusted series. This
average is computed without regard to sign and is expressed in
ci
4.70
.98 1.48 1.45
6.08 3.00
7.60 3.10
.98 1.59 1.43 7.44 2.74
.68 2.03 1.60 10.13 3.49
6 C1) L.37 1.37 9.50
6 (X)1.43 1.43 10.13
2.67
2.41
5 .95 1.62 1.55 6.64 2.56
3 .92 1.65 1.49 10.13 3.13
3 .97 1.82 1.61 9.42 2.64
I/C Average duration of
run (ADR)
QCD for
QCD
C QCD
span . ci I
2 .46 1.79 1.35 4.55
1 .76 2.17 1.35 3.85
2 .45 1.67 1.25 3.13
2.88
2.17
2.72
the same unit of measure as the series itself. "C" is the same
for the cyclical component, which is a moving average of the
seasonally adjusted series. "I" is the same for the irregular
component, which is determined by subtracting the cyclical component from the seasonally adjusted series.
All other measures shown
part 1.
above have the same meaning as in
Appendix D.-CURRENT ADJUSTMENT FACTORS FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES {MAY 1965 TO JUNE 1966)
1965
1966
Qf$ "M-i p q
May
June
July Aug. Sept.
Oct. Nov. Dec. Jan.
77.6 73 8
4. Temporary layoff , all industries
5. Average weekly initial claims, State
unemployment insurance
82.3 83.8
103.1 105.8
13. New business incorporations1
14. Liabilities of business failures
95.7 106.6
107.2 140.3 86.9
90.4
15.
17.
18.
30.
37.
Large 'business failures
Ratio, price to unit labor cost, mfg.
Profits per dollar of sales, mfg.2...
Nonagri. placements, all industries1.
Purchased materials, percent reporting higher inventories
55. Wholesale prices except farm products and foods
62. Labor cost per unit of output, mfg...
81. Consumer prices
82. Federal cash payments to public1
83. Federal cash receipts from public1...
90.
91.
92.
112.
128.
Defense Dept. oblig., procurement....
Defense Dept. obligations, total
Military contract awards in U.S
Change in business loans3
Japan, industrial production index...
105.3 83.9
102.6 95.0
100.7 104.7
77.4
93.1
96.7
89.9
Feb. Mar. Apr.
92.0 156.7 112.6 86.1
92.6
May June
73.3
Si. 9
82.6
88.6 104.5 138.5 147.0 108.0 92.9 91.8 81.1
94.9 86.9 107.0 111.6 92.8 116.5 101.6 102.6 105.2
95.8 107.6 76.2 92.4 101.0 104.8 103.0 104.3 111.1
99.5 102.3 86.3 95.7 91.3 94.6 95.0 83.7 110.2 114.1 111.8 106.7 100.8 101.6
101.3 102.5 96.3 98.8 101.8 102.7 100.6 97.5 98.2 99.5 100.2 101.0 101.4 102.6
*.#
106.2
96.3
100.5
96.9
106.3
107,, 4 111.3 102." 4 112.2 121.8 111.7 97.6 82.1 79.3 76.7 92. 8 102.1 110.7 109.8
88.6 92.6 104.4 109.7 106.1 114.2 108.9
101.6
92.7
90.2
100.0
98.6
99.7
98.4
117.5
99.9 99.9 99.8
99.9
97.7 104.1 101.2 98.3
99.9 100.2 100.0 100.1
104.0 97.0 114.2 96.9
152.3 49.1 114.4 124.9
100.0
97.0
100.1
101.9
45.4
100.0
99.5
100.0
101.4
101.6
100.1
102.6
100.0
105.8
107.9
100.1
102.3
100.0
91.4
68.0
100.0
100.6
99 9
94.4
113.0
100.0
99.8
99 9
94.1
126.5
100.0
98.9
99 9
97.8
80.4
99.9
99.9
98.6
97.7
99.8
99.9
100.3 104.7
118.4 152.6
93.8
88 6
90 2
100 0
100.1
179.9
87.4 87.1
143 1 115 2 92 4
171 9 72 8 88 4
99 6 98 9 98 5
99.8 100.0 96.4
100.0
106 3
101 1
99 9
99.6
96.4
91 7
85 4
101 3
98.8
99.2
96 1
90 5
101 3
102.3
82.8
94 4
95 5
100 4
94.0
83.4
82 0
87 2
99 5
100.7
99.2
97 5
113 B
100 5
108.2
95.6
96 1
84 3
100 5
99.4
95.7
91 4
90 1
100 2
99.9
107.1
99.0
94.8 92.9
93.2
99 7
103 9
99 3
99.5
179.0
142 2
174 7
99 B
100.6
NOTE: These data are not published by the source agency in seasonally adjusted form. Seasonal adjustments were made by the
Bureau of the Census or the National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. They are kept current by the Bureau of the Census. Seasonally adjusted data prepared by the source agency will be substituted whenever they are published. For a description of the
method used to compute these factors, see Bureau of the Census Technical Paper No. 15, The X-ll Variant of the Census Method II
Seasonal Adjustment Program.
•'•Factors are products of seasonal and trading-day factors. Seasonally adjusted data resulting from the application of those
combined
factors may differ slightly from those obtained by separate applications of seasonal and trading-day factors.
2
Quarterly series; figures are placed in .middle month of quarter.
3
Factors apply to total series before .month-to-month changes are computed.
70
Appendix F .-HISTORICAL DATA FOR SELECTED SERIES
Historical data, including latest revisions, are presented for selected series each month. See the Series Finding Guide for the
publication date of the latest historical figures for each series. Current data are shown in tables 2 and 4. Data are seasonally adjusted.
Year
Jan.
Feb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Oct.
Sept.
Nov.
Dec.
40, Unemployment rate, married males, spouse present (Percent)
1948
1949
1950. ....
1951
1952
1953
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
I960
1961
1962
3.3
3.2
2.5
2.6
4.0
2.5
2.4
4.6
4.0
2.9
4.7
3.3
4.1
3.3
4.7
3.7
3.1
2.5
2.3
5.1
3.7
3.6
4.8
3.6
3^3
2.5
2.6
5.5
3.2
3.4
4.9
3.7
2.7
2.7
2.6
5.7
3.2
3.4
5.1
3.5
2.7
2.6
2.6
5.8
3.1
3.6
4.8
3.7
2.4
2.9
2.6
5.7
3.3
3.8
4.8
3.6
2.5
2.4
2.7
5.7
3.4
3.9
4.7
3.7
2!6
2.6
3.1
4.9
3.9
4.4
4.2
3.5
2.5
2.7
3.0
5.1
3.7
3.9
4.6
3.5
3.'o
2.4
2.8
3.5
4.5
4.2
4.4
4.1
3.5
3.3
2.3
2.8
3.7
4.5
3.3
4.7
3.9
3.5
51,258
50,932
53,096
53,609
54,748
54,857
54,862
57,208
51,147
50,906
53,258
53,880
55,121
54,434
54,693
57,602
58,447
58,63558,569
59,725
61,273
61,947
62,919
58,719
58,572
58,713
60,555
60,791
61,802
63,334
42. Total nonagricultural employment, labor force survey (Thous.)
1948
1949
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
I960
1961
1962
50,331
50,817
51,021
53,312
53,808
55,465
54,506
55,097
57,756
53,454
58,087
59,030
60,547
61,025
61,900
50,827
50,546
51,189
53,414
54,001
55,918
54,658
55,251
57,606
58,766
57,974
53,908
60,820
60,887
62,187
50,730
51,167
50,466
50,236
51,058
51,787
53,666
54,035
53,918
53,931
56,068
55,546
54,350
54,575
55,158 • 55,671
57,717
57,859
59,086
58,903
57,863
57,744
59,280
59,579
60,361
61,140
61,106
61,215
62,206
62,197
51,138
49,928
51,884
53,961
54,321
55,582
54,160
55,774
58,075
58,715
57,901
59,595
61,332
61,067
62,549
51,633
49,769
52,230
53,591
54,228
55,569
54,116
56,043
58,113
58,858
57,915
59,843
61,366
61,568
62,694
51,830
49,536
52,282
54,090
54,120
55,638
53,888
56,548
58,118
58,822
57,842
60,095
61,028
61,225
62,547
51,416
50,240
53,056
53,728
54,111
55,291
54,280
56,804
58,321
58-, 728
57,997
60,093
61,006
61,284
63,018
51,147
50,760
53,093
53,687
54,473
55,172
54,251
56,639
58,368
59,110
58,350
60,028
61,109
61,386
63,161
51,244
50,945
53,054
53,885
54,231
55,253
54,495
56,846
58,496
58,811
58,532
60,294
60,865
61,526
63,110
43- Unemployment rate, total (Percent)
1948..,..
1949
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
1955
3.4
4.3
6.6
3.7
3.2
2.9
4.9
5.0
3.9
4.7
6.4
3.5
3.1
2.6.
5.2
4.7 -
4.0
5.0
6.3
3.4
3.0
2.6
5.6
4.6
4.0
5.3
5.8
3.1
3.0
2.7
5.8
4.7
3.5
6.0
5.5
3.0
3.1
2.6
5.9
4.3
3.7
6.2
5.4
3.3
3.1
2.6
5.6
4.2
3.7
6.7
5.1
3.1
3.3
2.6
5.8
4.1
3.9
6.8
4.5
3.1
3.4
2.7
6.1
4.3
3.8
6.6
4.6
3.4
3.2
2.9
6.2
4.1
3.7
7.9
4.2
3.6
3.0
3.2
5.8
4.3
3.8
6.5
4.2
3.5
2.8
3.5
5.3
4.3
4.0
6.6
4.3
3.2
2.7
4.5
5.1
4.2
1956
1957
1958
1959
I960
1961
1962
4.0
4.3
5.8
6.0
5.3
6.7
5.8
4.0
3.9
6.4
5.9
4.9
6.8
5.5
4.2
3.8
6.7
5.6
5.5
6.9
5.6
4.0
4.0
7.4
5.3
5.2
7.0
5.6
4.4
4.1
7.4
5.1
5.2
7.1
5.5
4.4
4.3
7.3
5.0
5.4
' 6.9
5.5
4.5
4.2
7.5
5.2
5.5
7.0
5.5
4.1
4.2
7.4
5.3
5.7
6.7
5.7
4.0
4.4
7.1
5.5
5.6
6.7
5.6
3.9
4.5
6.8
5.7
6.1
6.6
5.4
4.3
5.2
6.2
5.9
6.2
6.1
5.8
4.3
5.2
6.2
5.3
6.6
6.0
5.5
1,055.4
905.9
893.0
1,100.7
1,004.1
975.1
1,135.0
1,274.2
855.4
867.7
939.9
1,273.1
1,026.1
1,044-1
1,149.8
1,217.3
1,350.2
1,533.6
1,425.5
1,381.7
1,681.4
1,741.3
1,728.7
86. Exports, excluding military aid shipments, total (Mil. dol.)
1948.....
1949
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
1955
1,109.6
1,189.8
794.6
970.1
1,249.8
1,047.0
974.8
1,176.1
1,101.6
1,072.0
792.0
1,022.3
1,235.8
968.1
1,043.6
1/199.2
1956
1957
1958
1959
I960
1961
1962
1,296.6
1,657.9
1,419.9
1,319.2
1,564.7
1,627.4
1,670.6
1,297.7
1,599.0
1,350.4
1,293.2
1,570.5
1,716.0
1,812.0
1,049.1
1,094.6
772.1
1,080.0
1,280.8
1,006.4
857.0
1,156.9
1,337.6
1,878.0
1,370.0
1,302.1
1,519.0
1,753.6
1,673.3
1,022.8
1,084.6
785.8
1,256.1
1,138.0
1,016.6
1,193.1
1,119.4
1,061.9
1,046.2
772.3
1,133.0
1,129.1
1,008.8
1,087.7
1,132.5
1,399.3
1,733.4
1,362.7
1,296.4
1,624.7
1,662.4
1,797.5
1,409.3
1,546.7
1,374.8
1,327.1
1,661.5
1,586.3
1,763.8
988.8
1,077.9
830.7
1,131.5
1,063.3
996.1
1,096.0
1,164.9
1,438.1
1,689.9
1,331.9
1,347.2
1,635.2
1,588.2
1,837.2
1,068.8
975.8
820.8
1,233.6
969.8
1,018.8
1,084.5
1,239.9
1,414.6
1,609.1
1,365.6
1,395.5
1,709.2
1,691.9
1,749.8
1,125.0
976.9
813.0
1,233.3
1,012.0
1,033.9
1,071.8
1,210.7
1,444.3
1,609.7
1,371.0
1,430.3
1,627.2
1,691.0
1,703.4
950.2
907.5
888.8
1,233.0
1,027.8
1,111.1
1,022.9
1,201.9
1,585.8
1,581.3
1,325.7
1,501.0
1,651.6
1,679.9
1,910.3
1,503.1
1,549.5
1,345.5
1,337.0
1,670.2
1,781.0
1,544.7
1,188.2
858.0
915.0
1,309.3
1,016.0
1,050.3
1,107.6
1,224.0
1,853.9
1,506.7
1,337.8
1,497.6
1,647.4
1,727.7
1,843.3
71
Appendix F.-HISTORICAL DATA FOR SELECTED SERIES-Continued
Historical data, including latest revisions, are presented for selected series each month. See the Series Finding Guide for the
publication date of the latest historical figures for each series. Current data are shown in tables 2 and 4. Data are seasonally adjusted.
Year
Jan.
Feb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Dec.
Oct.
Nov.
596.3
565.0
954.9
837.6
915.3
970.0
814.9
981.7
620.2
572.5
911.8
799.5
898.6
831.8
813.2
1,051.6
555.1
602.8
876.3
844.9
904.3
897.9
836.6
1,058.6
1,120.9
1,062.9
1,076.0
1,408.3
1,188.3
1,262.2
1,471.4
1,056.9
1,089.4
1,097.8
1,200.3
1,178.1
1,299.8
1,314.6
976.9
1,075.9
1,164.9
1,299.1
1,125.4
1,308.7
1,424.9
676.9
593.5
890.6
811.9
978.5
850.0
889.6
989.1
1,070.9
1,089.5
1,138.3
1,333.1
1,108.7
1,315.2
1,376.5
+300.3
+264.9
+63.6
+428.2
+121.8
+146.2
+313.2
+158.7
+373.3
+457.7
+260.6
+82.6
+556.0
+432.6
+303.8
+511.3
+264.5
+24.4
+497.4
+37.5
+200.3
+218.0
+234.9
+783.0
+417.2
+199.5
+164.5
+538.7
+412.5
+466.8
Sept.
87. General imports, total (Mil. dol.)
1948
1949
1950.....
1951
1952
.
1953
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
1960
1961. ....
1962
526.5
586.7
592.3
938.7
856.3
901.5
855.4
888.2
1,047.1
1,057.8
1,054.2
1,164.7
1,213.5
1,160.9
1,326.6
589.0
567.1
606.3
927.0
881.3
888.6
846.1
890.9
1,056.6
1,049.9
1,016.6
1,194.4
1,306.6
1,150.2
1,309.3
581.6
547.6
576.8
996.7
904.1
901.5
752.4
905.5
1,035.5
1,118.1
1,051.0
1,213.8
1,260.7
1,162.9
1,341.7
510.1
534.3
605.5
1,005.0
869.5
958.2
919.4
889.5
1,013.8
1,099.0
1,045.4
1,210.0
1,315.1
1,152.0
1,365.6
589.5
548.1
636.1
985.5
838.7
942.3
852.2
939.6
1,034.7
1,052.0
1,053.5
1,312.8
1,242.5
1,152.9
1,404.1
619.9
523.3
683.9
967.0
882.4
906.6
928.3
923.9
1,068.2
1,058.0
1,042.0
1,311.5
1,252.6
1,174.3
1,350.8 ,
609.5
515.1
786.8
940.1
845.5
914.2
855.4
956.7
1,066.2
1,121.4
1,039.2
1,251.7
1,234.7
1,379.3
1,346.6
625.6
486.6
821.2
884.8
897.0
910.4
852.1
953.4
1,065.7
1,101.4
1,050.6
1,298.7
1,226.9
1,253.4
1,345.9
88. Merchandise trade balance — series 86 minus series 87 (Mil. dol.)
1943
1949...\.
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
1960
1961
1962
+583.1
+603.1
+202.3
+31.4
+393.5
+145.5
+119.4
+287.9
+249.5
+600.1
+365.7
+154.5
+351.2
+466.5
+344.0
72
+512.6
+504.9
+185.7
+95.3
+354.5
+79.5
+197.5
+308.3
+241.1
+549.1
+333.8
+98.8
+263.9
+565.8
+502.7
+467.5
+547.0
+195.3
+83.3
+376.7
+104.9
+104.6
+251.4
+302.1
+759.9
+319.0
+88.3
+258.3
+590.7
+331.6
+512.7
+550.3
+180.3
+251.1
+268.5
+58 ,,4
+273,7
+229.9
+385.5
+634-4
+317.3
+86.4
+309.6
+510.4
+431.9
+472.4
+498.1
+136.2
+147.5
+290.4
+66.5
+235.5
+192,9
+374.6
+494.7
+321.3
+14.3
+419.0
+433.4
+359.7
+368.9
+554.6
+H6.8
+164.5
+180.9
+89.5
+167.7
+241.0
+369.9
+631.9
+289.9
+35.7
+382.6
+413.9
+486.4
+459.3
+460.7
+34.0
+293.5
+124.3
+104.6
+229.1
+283.2
+348.4
+487.7
+326.4
+143.8
+474.5
+312.6
+403.2
+499.4
+490.3
-8.2
+348.5
+115.0
+123.5
+219.7
+257.3
+378.6
+508.3
+320.4
+131.6
+400.3
+437.6
+357.5
+353.9
+342.5
-66.1
+395.4
+112.5
+141.1
+208.0
+220.2
+464.9
+518.4
+249.7
+92.7
+463.3
+417.7
+438.9
+435.2
+333.4
-18.8
+301.2
+105.5
+143.3
+321.8
+222.6
+446.2
+460.1
+247.7
+136.7
+492.1
+481.2
+230.1
INDEX
SERIES FINDING GUIDE
(Page Numbers)
Economic Process Group
and Series
(See complete titles and sources on
back cover)
Timing
classification
Charts
1
2
Appendixes
Tables
3
1
2
4
5
6
7
B
C
D
G
F
E
Page
Issue
Page
Issue
1. EMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT
1. Avg, workweek, production workers, mfg..
2. Accession rate manufacturing
46. Help-wanted advertising
30. Nonagricultural placements, all Indus —
41. Employees in nonagri. establishments
42. Total nonagr (cultural employment
3. Layoff rate, manufacturing
4. Temporary layoff all industries
5. Initial claims, State unemploy. insurance .
45. Avg. weekly insured unemploy. rate, State.
43. Unemployment rate, total
40. Unemployment rate, married males
L
L
C
L
C
C
L
L
L
C
C
C
10
10
15 .
10
15
15
10
10
10
15
15
15
• 8
8
8
8
59
8
8
8
8
8
8
59
8
8
24
24
28
24
28
28
24
24
24
28
28
28
c
c
c
c
c
c
c
c
16
16
16
17
17
17
16
17
60
60
59
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
L
L
L
L
L
L
U
L
L
11
11
12
12
11
11
22
11
11
11
18
20
22
22
62
62
63
63
62
63
62
63
66
66
62
63
66
29
29
28
29
29
29
29
29
62
62
62
62
63
63
63
63
62
63
66
66
66
66
66
66
62
63
8
8
8
8
8
8
9
8
8
8
9
9
9
9
25
25
25
25
24
24
34
25
25
25
30
32
34
34
62
62
63
63
62
62
62
63
63
63
62
63
62
63
8
8
8
9
8
9
8
8
8
27
26
27
30
27
30
27
27
27
8
8
8
9
9
9
8
8
8
8
27
26
29
34
30
30
26
26
26
26
67
67
67
67
67
67
67
67
67
67
67
67
Jan.
Jan.
Feb.
Oct.
Feb.
Feb.
Jan.
Nov.
July
Mar.
Feb.
Feb.
' 66
'66
'64
'63
'66
'65
'66
'63
' 63
'64
'66
'66
Aug.
Aug.
Sept.
Aug.
Aug.
Oct.
Aug.
Mar.
'65
'65
'64
'65
'65
'63
'65
'65
74
74
74
*66
65
*66
June
July
June
Aug.
May
Dec.
' 65
' 65
'65
'63
'64
'63
68
65
72
66
68
Nov.
June
Nov.
June
Nov.
'64
'64
'65
' 64
'64
*66
71
65
66
64
66
*68
65
*66
Dec.
Aug.
June
June
June
June
June
June
Mar.
'63
'65
' 64
' 64
r
64
'64
' 63
' 64
'64
*66
66
69
70
73
73
71
73
64
74
Jan.
Apr.
Aug .
Aug.
Oct.
Oct.
Aug.
Oct.
June
Sept.
'64
'64
' 64
'64
'65
'65
'65
'65
'64
'65
72
72
70
70
70
*66
*66
71 71
72
72
*66
*66
*66
71 71
71
II. PRODUCTION, INCOME AND TRADE
49 GNP in current dol lars
50. GNP in 1958 dollars. .
47. Industrial production
52. Personal income
53. Labor income in mining, mfg., constr
54. Sales of retail stores
57 Final sales
51. Bank debits, all SMSA's except N.Y
.
••
71
71
71
71
68
68
67
67
67
67
68
67
71
71
70
72
72
71 *66
72
71 72
V-fll. FIXED CAPITAL INVESTMENT
29. New building permits, private housing
7 Private nonfarm housing starts
38. Index of net business formation
13 New business incorporations
6. New orders, durable goods industries
24. New orders, mach. and equip, industries - .
94 Construction contracts value
9. Construction contracts, comm. and indus. .
10. Contracts and orders, plant and equipment11. New capital appropriations mfg
61. Bus. expenditures, new plant and equip . .
Ill Corporate gross savings
96. Unfilled orders, durable goods industries .
97. Backlog of capital appropriations, mfg . .-.
k
U
U
58
60
••
66
67
67
67
66 67
67
6 6 - 67
68
66 67
67
68
66 68
68
68
68
70
..
73
July '64
IV. INVENTORIES
25. Change in unfilled orders, durable goods. . L
21. Change in business inventories (GNP) . . . L
L
31. Change mfg and trade inventories
64 Manufacturers' inventories, total
20. Change, mtls. and supplies inventories. . . t8
65 Mfrs * inventories finished goods
Lg
37. Purchased, materials, higher inventories. .
L
26 Buying policy production materials
32, Vendor performance, slower deliveries . . . L
14
14
14
18
14
18
14
14
14
60
62
63
66
*«
69
69
69
67
69
67
67
67
67
70
V. PRICES, COSTS AND PROFITS
23 Industrial materials prices
19 Stock prices 500 common stocks
55. Wholesale prices exc. farm prod, and foods
81 Consumer prices
62 Labor cost per unit of output mfg. ......
68. Labor cost per dollar of real corp. GNP. . .
16 Corporate profits after taxes
17 Ratio price to unit labor cost mfg
18. Profits per dollar of sales, mfg
22. Profits to income originating, corporate. . .
L
L
C
U
u8
t:L
L
L
14
13
17
22
18
18
13
13
13
13
58
58
59
61
58
62
62
62
63
63
63
66
66
62
63
66
62
62
63
63
66
67
67
67
68
67
68
68
67
68
68
70
70
70
70
70
= leading, C = roughly coincident, Lg = lagging, U = unclassified (includes "other selected U.S. series" and "international comparisons"). *Appendix G.
73
SERIES FINDING GUIDE-Continued
(Page Numbers)
Economic Process Group
and Series
(See complete titles and sources on
back cover)
Timing
classification
1
2
Appendixes
Tables
Charts
3
1
2
4
5
6
7
B
C
D
G
F
E-
Page
Issue
Page
Issue
VI. MONEY AND CREDIT
85. Change in money supply
98. Chang?, money supply and time deposits . .
93 Free reserves
<
66. Consumer installment debt . „
113. Change consumer installment debt
112. Change in business loans . . „
110. Total private borrowing
U
U
U
Lg
U
U
U
20
20
20
18
20
20
20
114 Treasury bill rate
115 Treasury bond yields
116 Corporate bond yields ...
117 Municipal bond yields
118 Mortgage yields
67. Bank rates on short-term business loans . .
14 Liabilities of business failures
15 Large business failures
U
U
U
U
U
Lg
L
21
21
21
Cl
21
18
12
12
U
U
U
U
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
32
32
32
30
33
32
32
9
9
9
9
9
9
8
8
33
33
33
33
33
30
25
26
22
22
22
22
9
9
9
9
33
34
34
34
U
U
U
U
U
U
U
U
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
31
31
31
31
31
31
31
32
U
U
U
U
U
U
U
23
23
23
23
23
23
23
61
61
62
63
62
63
62
62
63
63
69
69
69
67
69
69
68
66
67
67
67
67
67
68
67
67
70
70.
70
73
74
66
70
71
71
72
Aug.
Aug.
Oct.
Aug.
July
July
Nov.
'65
'65
'64
'64
' 64
' 64
'65
71
72
72
72
72
70
*66
*66
July
July
July
July
July
Aug.
Nov.
Mar.
' 64
'64
' 64
' 64
' 64
'64
'63
'64
71
72
72
74
Feb.
Feb.
Feb.
July
'66
'66
'66
'65
73
73
73
72
70
70
70
66
Aug.
Aug.
Aug.
Aug.
Sept.
Sept.
Sept.
Oct.
'65
'65
'65
'65
'64
'64
'64
'64
66
67
67
67
67
68
68
Oct.
Oct.
Oct.
Oct.
Oct.
Oct.
Oct.
'64
'64
'64
'64
'64
'64
'64
73
73
73
July
July
July
' 64
' 64
' 64
74
74
74
74
74
July
July
July
July
July
' 64
'64
' 64
' 64
'64
VII. FOREIGN TRADE AND PAYMENTS
86 Exports excluding military aid
87. General imports
88. Merchandise trade balance
89 U S balance of payments
68
68
69
69
VIII. FEDERAL GOVERNMENT ACTIVITIES
83 Federal cash receipts from public
82 Federal cash payments to public
84 Federal cash surplus or deficit
95. Balance, Fed. income and prod, account . .
91. Defense Department obligations, total —
90. Defense Dept. obligations, procurement. . .
92. Military contract awards in U.S
99 New orders defense products
61
67
67
69
69
67
67
67
67
••
62
63
70
70
70
70
70
••
IX. INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS
121
122.
123
125.
126
127
128.
Industrial
Industrial
Industrial
Industrial
Industrial
Industrial
Industrial
production OECD
production, United Kingdom —
production Canada,,....
production, West Germany
production France „
production Italy..*
production, Japan
35
35
35
35
35
35
35
68
68
68
68
68
68
68
••
70
DIFFUSION INDEXES
Dl. Average workweek
D5. Initial claims
D6. New orders
Dll- Capital appropriations
— 1-month. .
9-month. .
1-month. .
9-month..
1-month. .
9-month..
1-quarter. .
3-quarter..
D19 Stock prices
1-month. .
9-month. .
D23. Industrial materials prices .... 1-month. .
9-month..
D34. Profits, mfg
1-quarter. .
D35. Net sales, mfrs
4-quarter. .
D36. New orders
4-quarter. .
D41. Employees in nonagri.establish. 1-month..
6-month..
D47. Industrial production
1-month. .
6-month. .
D48. Freight carloadings
4-quarter. .
D54. Retail sales
1-month. .
9-inonth..
D58. Wholesale prices, mfg
, 1-month. .
6-month. .
D61. New plant and equip, expend.. 1-quarter. .
••
39
39
39
39
39
39
39
39
42
42
43
43
42
42
42
42
46-7
46-7
56
56
46-9
46-9
72
68
73
73
72
69
73
73
Mar.
Oct.
May.
May
Apr.
Oct.
Feb.
Feb.
'65
'64
'65
'65
'65
'64
'65
'65
39
39
39
39
39
41
41
43
43
43
43
43
45
45
55
55
48-9
48-9
72
69
72
73
69
70
70
Apr.
Oct.
Apr.
Feb.
Oct.
Nov.
Nov.
'65
'64
'65
'65
'64
'64
'64
40
40
40
40
41
40
40
40
40
41
44
44
44
44
45
44
44
44
44
45
50-3
50-3
52-3
52-3
72
70
73
70
68-9
73
70
73
73
69
Apr.
Oct.
Apr.
Oct.
Nov.
Apr.
Oct.
Apr.
Feb.
Nov.
'65
'64
'65
'64
'64
'65
'64
'65
'65
'64
48-51
48-51
52-5
52-5
••
••
••
••
••
L = leading, C = roughly coincident, Lg = lagging, U = unclassified (includes "other selected U.S. series" and "international comparisons"). *Appendix G.
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Titles and Sources of Principal Business Cycle Series and Diffusion Indexes
The numbers assigned to the series are for identification purposes only and do not necessarily reflect series relationships or order. " M" indicates monthly series "Q" indicates
quarterly series. Data apply to the whole period except for series designated by "EOM" or "EOQ". "EOM" indicates that data are for the end of the month and "EOQ" indicates
data are for the end of the quarter. The Roman numeral identifies the economic process group in which a series is listed in the Finding Guide., Thus, "(M,ll)" indicates a monthly
series listed in group II, The genera! classification of series follows the approach of the National Bureau of Economic Research. The series preceded by an asterisk (*) were
included in the 1960 N8ER list of ?6 indicators.
30 NBER LEADING INDICATORS
31. Change in book value of manufacturing and trade inventories, total (M,IV).-Depart-
*1, Average workweek of production workers, manufacturing {M,I).-Department Of Labor,
ment of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
Bureau of Labor Stalistics
32. Vendor performance, percent reporting slower deliveries (MJV).-ChJCagO Purchasing
*2. Accession rote, manufacturing (M,l).-Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics
*3. Layoff rate, manufacturing (M,l).~Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics
Agents Association; no seasonal adjustment
37, Percent reporting higher inventories, purchased materials (M,IV).-National AsSOCJa-
tion of Purchasing Agents; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census
4. Number of persons on temporory.loyoff, all industries {M,l).~Department Of Labor, Bu-
reau of Labor Statistics; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census
5. Average weekly initial claims for unemployment insurance, State programs (M,I).—De-
partment of Labor, Bureau of Employment Security; seasonal adjustment by Bureau
of the Census
*6, Value of manufacturer:;' new orders, durable goods industries (M,III).-Department Of
*38. Index of net business formotion (M,lll)."Dun and Bradstreet, Inc., and Department of
Commerce, Bureau of the Census; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census
and National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
15 NBER ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
40. Unemployment rate, married males, spouse present (M,l).-Department Of Labor, Bureau
of Labor Statistics
Commerce, Bureau of the Census
*7. New private nonfarm dwelling units started (M,m).-Department of Commerce, Bureau
of the Census
*9. Construction contracts awarded for commercial and industrial buildings,
floor space
(M,NI).-F. W. Dodge Corporation; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census and
National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
*41. Number of employees in nonagricultural establishments (M,I).-Department Of Labor,
Bureau of Labor Statistics
42. Total nonagricultural employment, labor force survey (M,I).-Department Of Labor, Bu-
reau of Labor Statistics, and Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
10. Contracts and orders for plant and equipment (M,lll).--DepartmentOf Commerce, Bureau
*43. Unemployment rate, total (M,l).--Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, and
Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
of the Census, and F. IV. Dodge Corporation; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the
Census and National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
45. Average weekly insured unemployment rate, State programs (M,t).-Department Of
Labor, Bureau of Employment Security
11, Newly approved capital appropriations, 1,000 manufacturing corporations (Q,III)»--N3-
tional Industrial Conference Board; component industries are seasonally adjusted
and added to obtain seasonally adjusted total
13. Number of new business incorporations (M,lll).--Dun and Bradstreet, Inc.; seasonal
adjustment by Bureau of the Census and National Bureau of Economic Research,
Inc.
46. Index of help-wonted advertising in newspapers {M,I}.--National Industrial Conference
Board
*47> Index of industrial production (M,ll),--Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
*49. Gross national product in current dollars (Q,ll).-Department Of Commerce, Office Of
*14. Current liabilities of business failures (M,VI).--Dun and Bradstreet, Inc.; seasonal
adjustment by Bureau of the Census and National Bureau of Economic Research,
Inc.
15, Number of business failures with liabilities of
$100,000 and over
of Business Economics
*50 Gross notional product in 1958 dollars (Q,l!).-Department of Commerce, Office of
Business Economics
(M,VI).-Dun
and Bradstreet, Inc.; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census and National
Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
*16. Corporate profits after taxes(Q,V) a -Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
*51. Bank debits, all standard metropolitan statistical areas except New York(224 SMSA's)
(M,II).-Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
*52. Personal income (Mjl).--Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
53. Labor income in mining, manufacturing, and construction (M,ll).--Department Of COfTI-
17. Price per unit of labor cost index—ratio, wholesale prices of manufactured goods in-
dex to index of compensation of employees (sum of wages, salaries, and supplements to wages and salaries) per unit of output (M,V).-Department of Commerce,
Office of Business Economics; Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics;
and Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System; seasonal adjustment by*
Bureau of the Census
rotits (before
Ibetore taxes)
taxes; per
per dollar of
ot sales, all
(U,VJ.-18. Profits
all manutacturing
manufacturing corporations (Q,V).~
Federal Trade Commission and Securities and Exchange Commission; seasonal
adjustment by Bureau of the Census
*19. Index of stock prices, 500 common stocks (M,v).-Standard and Poor's Corporation; no
seasonal adjustment
20. Change in book value of manufacturers' inventories of materials and supplies (M,IV).--
Department of Commeice, Bureau of the Census
*21. Change in business inventories, farm and nonfarm, after valuation adjustment (GMP
component) (Q,iv).-Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
22. Ratio of profits (after taxes) to income originating, corporate, all industries (Q,V).—
merce, Office of Business Economics
*54. Sales of retail stores (Mjl).--Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
*55. Index of wholesale prices, alt commodities other than farm product sand foods (M,V).—
Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of
the Census
_
-
-„.
57. Final soles (series 49 minus series 21) (Q,M).--Department of Commerce, Office of
Business Economics
7 NBER LAGGING INDICATORS
*61. Business expenditures on new plant and equipment, total (Q,111).-Department Of Com-
merce, Office of Business Economics, and the Securities and Exchange Commission
*62. Index of labor cost per unit of output, total manufacturing-ratio, index of compensation of employees in manufacturing (the sum of wages and salaries and supplements
to wages and salaries) to index of industrial production,
manufacturing (M,V).—
Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics, and the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census
Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
*23. index of industrial materials prices (M,v).-Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor
Statistics; no seasonal adjustment
24. Value of manufacturers' new orders, machinery and equipment industries (M,III).—Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
25. Change in manufacturers' unfilled orders, durable goods industries (M,IV).—Department
of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
26. Buying policy—production materials, percent reporting commitments 60 days or longer
(M,IV).-National Association of Purchasing Agents; no seasonal adjustment
29. Index of new private housing units authorized by local building permits (M,Ml).--De-
partment of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
30. Nonagricultural placements, all industries (M,l).-Department of Labor, Bureau of Employment Security; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census
*64. Book value of manufacturers' inventories, all manufacturing industries (EOM,IV ).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
65. Book value of manufacturers' inventories of finished goods, all manufacturing industries (EOM,lv).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
*66. Consumer installment debt (EOM,VI).-Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve
System. FRS seasonally adjusted net change added to seasonally adjusted figure
for previous month to obtain current figure
*67. Bonk rates on short-term business loans, 19 cities (EOQ,VI).--Board Of Governors Of
the Federal Reserve System; no seasonal adjustment
68. Index of labor cost per dollar of real corporate gross notional product (ratio of compensation of employees in corporate enterprises to value of corporate product in
1958 dollars) (Q,v).-Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics, National Income Division
Continued on reverse
POSTAGE AND «£$
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OFFiCtAL M^INI
TitUft and Sources of Principal Business Cycle Series and Diffusion
n OTHeR SELECTED U.S. SERIES
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of New York and Tinw &fwtatflt; m sianml adjusts!
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i^rd {rf Gov^rwHS of it F&toal Re$Mvt System
no i^isowl adjietaeal
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7 IHtfftMAfiONAl
(M,v!t).~Q<^itwtt of Commefce, Biieait of lit Census
O'f
t*rf«* $
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9, Exetfti of r^*ipt? or ^ynwit« In U3, kltn«* of p<jym*nt* ( Q, VU'). -06-08 ft B^nt Of
t, Office of Business Economics
90, 0^*fi»* D+pcMn***u ^yifoH^nc^r^wMMfflt (M.vtU).- Department oif Defense, Fiscal
Airtysii Divislw; soascnal adjuatnent by Iwtan of the Census
^ot obf ^t,-^, voi^J CM, vw)-Ce^rtt»ef}t of Oefms.e, Fiscal A%!f 1. P*
ysi$ Divisitn;
n; i^asoiaf adjusliMt by Eureau of th« Census
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(Lwtew)
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127. lti)yr
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ersws of ttie Ftdtrtl Reserve System; n@ seasooai adj^tet
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