Full text of Business Conditions Digest : December 1964

The full text on this page is automatically extracted from the file linked above and may contain errors and inconsistencies.

DECEMBER 1964

Business

Cycle

Developments




DATA THROUGH NOVEMBER

U.S. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE

BUREAU OF THE CENSUS

Business

Cycle
U.S. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE
Luther H. Hodges, Secretary

Developments

BUREAU OF THE CENSUS
Richard M. Scammon, Director
A. Ross Eckler, Deputy Director
Morris H. Hansen, Asst. Director for Research and Development

DECEMBER 1964

Chief Economic Statistician
JULIUS SHISKIN

DATA THROUGH NOVEMBER

This report was prepared in the Economic Research and Analysis
Division under the direction of Julius Shiskin, Chief. Technical
staff and their responsibilities for the publication are—

Series ESI No. 64-12

Feliks Tamm—Computation of business cycle measures,
Allan H. Young—Selection of seasonal adjustment methods,
Eugene L. Rossidivito—Specifications for computer processing,
Betty F. Tunstall—Collection and compilation of basic data.

Subscription price is $6 a year ($1.50 additional
for foreign mailing). Single issues are 60 cents.
Airmail delivery is available at an additional charge.
For information about domestic or foreign air mail
delivery, write to the Superintendent of Documents
(address below), enclosing a copy of your address
lable.

Editorial supervision is provided by Geraldine Censky of the Statistical Reports Division.

Make checks payable to the Superintendent of Documents. Send to U.S. Government Printing Office,
Washington, D.C. 20402, or to any U.S. Department
of Commerce Field Office. See list below.

The cooperation of various government and private agencies
which provide data is gratefully acknowledged. The agencies
furnishing data are indicated in the list of series and sources on
the back cover of this report.

U.S. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE
FIELD OFFICES
Albuquerque, N. Mex. 87101
U.S. Courthouse
Anchorage, Alaska 99501
Room 306
Loussac-Sogn Bldg.
Atlanta, Ga. 30303
4th Fl., Home Savings Bldg.
75 Forsyth Street, N.W.
Baltimore, Md. 21202
Room 305, U.S. Customhouse
Gay and Lombard St.
Birmingham, Ala. 35203
Title Building
2030 Third Avenue, North

Kansas City, Mo. 64106
Room 2011, 911 Walnut Street
Los Angeles, Calif. 90015
Room 450, Western Pacific Bldg.
Cleveland, Ohio 44101
1031 South Broadway
4th FL, Fed. Reserve Bank Bldg,
East 6th St. and Superior Ave.
Memphis, Tenn. 38103
Cincinnati, Ohio 45202
8028 Federal Office Bldg.
550 Main Street

Dallas, Tex. 75202
Room 1200
1114 Commerce Street
Denver, Colo. 80202
142 New Custom House
19th and Stout Street

Boston, Mass. 02110
Room 230
80 Federal Street

Des Moines, Iowa 50309
Room 1216, Paramount Bldg.
509 Grand Ave.
Detroit, Mich. 48226
445 Federal Bldg.

Buffalo, N.Y. 14203
504 Federal Building
117 Ellicott Street

Greensboro, N.C. 27402
Room 412
U.S. Post Office Bldg.

Charleston, S.C. 29401
No. 4 North Atlantic Wharf

Hartford, Conn. 06103
18 Asylum Street

Charleston, W. Va. 25301
Honolulu, Hawaii 96813
3002 New Federal Office Bldg.
202 International Savings Bldg.
500 Quarrier Street
1022 Bethel Street
Cheyenne, Wyo. 82001
Houston, Tex. 77002
207 Majestic Building
5102 Federal Building
16th and Capitol Avenue
515 Rusk Avenue
Chicago, 111. 60604
Jacksonville, Fla. 32202
Room 1486, New Federal Bldg.
512 Greenleaf Bldg.
219 South Dearborn St.
208 Laura St.




345 Federal Office Building
167 N. Main Street
Miami, Fla. 33130
1628 Federal O f f i c e Bldg.
51 S.W. First Avenue
Milwaukee, Wis. 53203
Straus Bldg.
238 W. Wisconsin Ave.
Minneapolis, Minn. 55401
Room 304, Federal Building
110 South Fourth Street

Pittsburgh, Pa. 15222
1030 Park Building
355 Fifth Avenue
Portland, Oreg. 97204
217 Old U.S. Courthouse
520 S.W. Morrison Street
Reno, Nev. 89502
1479 Wells Avenue
Richmond, Va. 23240
2105 Federal Building
400 North 8th Street
St. Louis, Mo. 63103
2511 Federal Building
1520 Market Street
Salt Lake City, Utah 84111
3235 Federal Building
125 S. State Street

New Orleans. La. 70130
1508 Masonic Temple Building
333 St. Charles Avenue

San Francisco, Calif. 94102
Federal Building--Box 36013
450 Golden Gate Avenue

New York, N.Y. 10001
61st Fl., Empire State Bldg.
350 Fifth Avenue

Santurce, P.R. 00907
Room 628, 605 Condado Ave.

Philadelphia, Pa. 19107
Jefferson Building
1015 Chestnut Street

Savannah, Ga. 31402
235 U.S. Courthouse and
Post Office Building
125-29 Bull Street

Phoenix, Ariz. 85025
New Federal Building
230 North First Avenue

Seattle, Wash. 98104
809 Federal Office Bldg.
909 First Avenue




Preface
This report has been prepared to bring together
many of the available economic indicators in convenient form for analysis and interpretation by
specialists in business cycle analysis. The presentation and classification of series in this report
follows the business indicators approach. The classification of series and the business cycle turning
dates are those designated by the National Bureau
of Economic Research (NBER) which, in recent
years, has been the leader in this field of investigation. However, this publication is not to be taken
as implying acceptance or endorsement by the
Bureau of the Census or any other government
agency of any particular approach to business cycle
analysis . It is intended only to supplement other
reports of the Department of Commerce that provide data for analyzing current business conditions.
The unique features are the arrangement of data
according to their usual timing relations during the
course of the business cycle and the inclusion of
special analytical measures and historical cyclical
comparisons that help in evaluating the current
stage of the business cycle.
About 87 principal indicators and over 300 components are included in preparing the report. The
movements of the series are shown against the background of the expansions and contractions of the
general business cycle so that "leads" and "lags"
can be readily detected and unusual cyclical developments spotted. The exact number of series included for the total and important classes of series
may vary from month to month because of additions
of new series and revisions in the composition of
indexes. Almost all of the basic data are available
in published reports. A complete list of the series
and the sources of data is shown on the back cover
of this report. Series are seasonally adjusted except those that do not appear to contain seasonal
movement.
The chief merits of this report are the speed
with which the data for indicators are collected,
assembled, and published and the arrangement of
the series for business cycle studies.
Electronic
computers are used for many of the computations,
thus making early publication possible.
Publication is scheduled for around the 22d of the month
following the month of data.

i




New Features and
Changes for This Issue
A limited number of changes are made f r o m
time to time to reflect the change from one stage
of the business cycle to another, to show new findings of business cycle research and newly available
economic series, or to emphasize the activity of a
particular series or series group. Such changes
may involve additions or deletions of series used,
changes in placement in relation to other series,
changes in components of indexes, etc.
These
changes will be listed in this section each month.
The changes made in this issue are as follows:
1. Series 1, 2, 3, and 41 on employment in
manufacturing establishments have been revised by
the source agency to include (a) the adoption of a
March 1963 benchmark for the period beginning
April 1962 and (b) a new seasonal adjustment.
Revised data are reflected in tables and charts
throughout the report.
2. Revised data on backlog of capital appropriations ( s e r i e s 97) are shown in chart 1 and table
2 beginning with the first quarter of 1961. Revised
data for the earlier period were published in the
November issue.
3. The two series on percent change in the
money supply ( s e r i e s 85 and 98) have been converted to an annual rate in chart 1 and tables 1 and
2.
4. Appendix F includes data for series 1, 2, 3,
41, 85, and 98.

A New Lookl
The January issue of Business Cycle Developments will have a new look. The size of the book
will be expanded to "Census" size (9 1/8 x 11 3/8
inches), the cover will have the benefit of new design, and the charts will be in color. The data in
the report will be the same although tables and
charts will be redesigned. In addition to the usual
materials, the issue will contain the paper, "The
Current Expansion in Historical Perspective,"
presented by M r . Shiskin at the 12th Annual Conference on the Economic Outlook (November 19,
1964) , sponsored by the University of Michigan.
The January issue is scheduled for release on
January 22, 1965.
11




Contents
Page
Preface
New Features and Changes for This Issue

i
ii

Descriptions and Procedures
Business Cycle Series
Method of Presentation
Designation of Business Cycle Turning Points
Seasonal and Related Statistical Adjustments
MCD Moving Averages
Analytical Measures of Current Change
Comparisons of Cyclical Patterns
Charts
How to Read Charts 1 , 2 , and 3

1
1
1
1
2
2
3
4
5

Basic Data
Table 1.—Basic Data and Current Changes for Business Cycle Series: 4 Most
Recent Months
Chart 1. —Business Cycle Series: 1948 to Present
Table 2.—Basic Data for Business Cycle Series: January 1961 to Present

6
8
22

Analytical Measures
Table 3.—Distribution of Highs in Business Cycle Indicators During Recent
Months Compared With Periods Around Previous Business Cycle Peaks ....
Chart 2.—Diffusion Indexes: 1948 to Present
Chart 3 . —Diffusion Indexes , Actual and Anticipated: 1948 to Present
Table 4.—Diffusion Indexes for 11 Major Economic Activities: January 1961
to Present
Table 5.—Diffusion Indexes, Actual and Anticipated, for 4 Manufacturing
Activities: January 1961 to Present
Table 6.—Direction of Change in Series Components and Percent of Series
Rising: July 1963 to Present

34
35
37
38
41
42

Cyclical Patterns
Chart 4. —Comparisons of Reference Cycle Patterns
Chart 5. —Comparisons of Specific Cycle Patterns
Table 7.—Percent of Reference Peak Levels as Measured at Designated Months
After the Reference Trough Dates in the 9 Most Recent Expansions
Table 8.—Percent Change From Reference Trough Levels as Measured at
Designated Months After the Reference Trough Dates in the 9 Most Recent
Expansions
.'.
Table 9.—Percent of Specific Peak Levels and Percent Change From Specific
Trough Levels as Measured at Designated Months After the Specific Trough
Dates in the 9 Most Recent Expansions

50
55
58
59
60

Appendixes
Appendix A.— Business Cycle Reference Dates and Duration of Expansions and
Contractions in the United States: 1854 to 1961
Appendix B.—Specific Trough and Peak Dates for Selected Business Indicators.
Appendix C . — A v e r a g e Changes and Related Measures for Business Cycle
Series
Appendix D . — C u r r e n t Seasonal Adjustment Factors for Business Cycle Series
Adjusted by Bureau of the Census or NBER (November 1963 to December
1964)
Appendix E . — P e r c e n t Change for Selected Series Over Contraction and
Expansion Periods of Business Cycles: 1920 to 1961
Appendix F . —Historical Data for Selected Series

61
62
63
66

67
68

Index
Series Index to Charts, Tables, and Appendixes

71

iii

Data Bank of
Business Cycle Indicators
A punch card file containing data for the business cycle indicators included in table
2, the diffusion indexes in tables 4 and 5, and the component series (listed in table 6)
used to compute 14 of the diffusion indexes in table 4, is maintained at the Bureau of
the Census. Duplicate cards for 85 of the 87 indicators, the 30 diffusion indexes,
and 145 of the component series are available at cost.
(The other series can be
obtained only f r o m the sponsoring a g e n c i e s . ) The cost for these cards ranges f r o m
$ 58 for 500 cards to $ 137 for 5,000 cards . One card is required per series year .
Thus, for the 85 principal indicators, f r o m 1948 to date, the cost would be about
$ 7 0 . For these principal indicators plus the 30 diffusion indexes and 145 component
series, the cost would be about $ 135 for the same period.
At present, the Bureau of the Census cannot keep customers' files current. However, the figures for the principal indicators and diffusion indexes required for this
purpose are published in Business Cycle Developments each month.

BCD Technical Papers
To aid users of Business Cycle Developments, technical papers dealing with the statistical adjustments and series used in BCD will be included in this report from time
to time. A limited number of copies of these articles are available, free of charge.
The following papers have been included as part of this program:
No. 1. —Summary Description of the X-9 and X-1Q Versions of the Census Method II
Seasonal Adjustment Program (published as appendix E in the September
1963
issue) . A new version of this program is scheduled to be released
early next year . Announcement will be made at that time.
No. 2.—Business Cycle Indicators — The Known and the Unknown by Julius Shiskin
(published as appendix H in the September 1963 issue) .
No. 3.—Census Trading-Day Adjustment Method by Allan H. Young (published in
May 1964 issue) .
No. 4. — Eight Series on Manufacturers' Orders and Inventories: Descriptions and
Procedures by John Musgrave and John Kuntz (published in July 1964 issue).
No. 5. —Series 54, Sales of Retail Stores: Descriptions and Procedures
Shor and Allan Young (published in September 1964 issue) .

by Max

Please send requests for the material described above to Julius Shiskin, Chief
Economic Statistician, Bureau of the Census, Washington, D . C . 20233.




iv

Descriptions
ind
Procedures
usiness C y c l e S e r i e s
Intensive research over many years has provided
record of the typical sequence of changes in ecoomic processes during a business cycle; more
pecifically, a list of significant series that usually
ead,
those that usually move -with, and those that
sually lag behind cyclical movements in aggregate
conomic activity. The series have been grouped,
n accordance with the NBER classification, as
leading," "roughly coincident," or "lagging" inicators. In addition, other series are included in
lis report for a more complete coverage of the
ational economy. The series are described as
Dllows:
NBER Leading Indicators.—Around 30 series
sually reach peaks or troughs before those in agregate economic activity as measured by the
oughly coincident series ( s e e below) . For this
eason, they are designated as "leading" series.
>ne group of these series pertains to activities in
le labor market, another to orders and contracts,
nd so on.
NBER Roughly Coincident Indicators.—About 15
eries are direct measures of aggregate economic
ctivity or move roughly together -with it; for exmple, nonagricultural employment, industrial proaction and retail sales . For this reason they are
e f e r r e d to as "roughly coincident" series .
NBER Lagging Indicators .—Some series, such
s new plant and equipment expenditures and manuicturers' inventories, usually have reached turnig points after they were reached in aggregate
conomic activity, and for this reason, they are
ssignated as "lagging" series .
Other series.—Additional U . S . series with busi2ss cycle significance are also shown. Some of
lese series, such as change in money supply,
lerchandise trade balance, and cash surplus or
^ficit, represent important factors in the economy,
it they have not qualified as indicators for various
masons, such as irregularity in timing. Finally,
idustrial production indexes for several countries
hichhave important trade relations with the United
:ates are presented.




Method of P r e s e n t a t i o n
Data are shown in this report in three general
categories, as follows:
Basic data (chart 1 and tables 1 and Z) .—Over
50 business cycle indicators and about 30 additional series with business cycle significance are
included. Together they provide a broad view of
current and prospective business cycle fluctuations
in the economy as well as the basis for making an
economic interpretation of these fluctuations.
Analytical measures (charts 2-3 and tables 3-6). —
These m e a s u r e s aid in forming a judgment of the
imminence of a turning point in the business cycle
and the extent of c u r r e n t changes in different parts
of the economy. They also aid in pointing to developments in particular industries and places.
Cyclical patterns (charts 4-5 and tables 7 - 9 ) . —
The current cyclical change is compared with
changes at corresponding stages of earlier cycles.
These comparisons are made in different ways depending upon the phase of the business cycle.
In addition to the data shown as part of the regular report, certain appendix materials are presented.
These materials include historical data,
key information, and adjustment factors.

Designation of Business Cycle Turning
Points
The historical business cycle turning points are
those designated by the NBER. They mark the approximate date when aggregate economic activity
reached its cyclical high or low levels. As a matter
of general practice, a business cycle turning point
will not be designated until at least 6 months after
it has occurred.

Seasonal and 'Related S t a t i s t i c a l
Adjustments
Official seasonally adjusted data are used in this
report wherever they are available. However, for
the special purposes of business cycle studies, a
number of series that are not ordinarily published
in seasonally adjusted form are shown on a seasonally adjusted basis in this report. These series are
as follows: 4, 5, 9, 10, 11, 13, 14, 15, 17, 18, 30, 37,
55, 62, 81, 82, 83, 84, 90, 91, 92, 97, 112, and 128.
Seasonal adjustments for these series w e r e developed by either the NBER or the Bureau of the Census using Method II. The adjustment factors are
shown in appendix table D, except for series 11 and
97 which are the sums of seasonally adjusted components, and series 9 and 10 which are based on

i

Descriptions and Procedures
unpublished source data. Seasonally adjusted data
prepared by the collecting agency will be substituted for the series mentioned above whenever they
are published.
Method II adjusts for changes in average climatic
conditions and institutional arrangements during
the y e a r . Adjustments for variations in the number
of trading days are also made for some series; for
example, new building permits. Further adjustments for variable holidays, such as Easter, are
made for certain series; for example, retail sales
of apparel.
Studies are now underway to determine whether similar adjustments for Labor Day,
Thanksgiving Day, and the day of the week upon
which Christmas falls would be useful.
Studies of the effects of unusual weather upon
some series have also been started. It is important
to note, however, that present methods adjust for
average weather conditions and not for the dispersion about this average; that is, present methods
are designed to adjust for normal but not abnormal
weather at any time of the year. For this reason,
many seasonally adjusted series, such as housing
starts, will tend to be low in months when the
weather is unusually bad and high in months when
the weather is unusually good. While it eventually
may be possible, Census methods do not at present
make any adjustments for such variations .

MCD Moving Averages
MCD (months for cyclical dominance) is an estimate of the appropriate span over which to observe
the cyclical movements in a monthly series.
This
span is usually longer than a single month because
month-to-month changes are often dominated by
erratic movements, but shorter than the frequently
used 12-month span (change from the same month
a year a g o ) , and is different for different series
(see appendix C for MCD values and method of
computation) .
MCD is, on average, the first interval of months
for which the average amplitude of the cyclical factor is greater than that of the irregular factor and
remains so.
It is small for smooth series and
large for irregular series.
The differences between moving averages of the period equal to MCD
are commensurate with the differences between
seasonally adjusted values separated by the same
MCD span; thus, the month-to-month differences
in a 3-month moving average are commensurate
with differences in seasonally adjusted values over
3-month spans. MCD moving averages all have
about the same degree of smoothness.
Consequently, MCD moving averages of highly irregular
series, such as business failures and Federal cash
payments, will show their cyclical movements
about as clearly as the seasonally adjusted data for
such smooth series as industrial production and
personal income.
MCD moving averages are shown in chart 1 for
all series with an MCD of "5" or more. To provide
an indication of the variation about these moving
averages, seasonally adjusted data are also plotted
for years beginning with 1958. Although not so
smooth as more powerful moving averages such as




the weighted 15-term Spencer curve, the MCI
curve is more current and has a smaller roundin,
bias around business cycle peaks and troughs. Q
balance, the MCD curve seems to offer a reason
able compromise in terms- of currency, smooth
ness, and fidelity to the patterns of business cycl
fluctuations .
Because of advance reporting and preliminar
seasonal f a c t o r s , the MCD's for current data ar
usually larger than those computed from historica
series and shown in appendix C . MCD is usuall
computed for a fairly long period, one coverin
both expansions and contractions. 1 Since the pac
of change varies from phase to phase of the busi
ness cycle, such a measure will not provide a
accurate estimate of the span over which to esti
mate cyclically significant changes at all times
Thus MCD computed for the period 1953-63 is likel
to be too high during the early stages of recover
when expansion has usually been rapid and too lo'
during the late stages of expansion when the rate c
advance has usually been small. This limitatio
should also be borne in mind when making use c
this measure , 2

A n a l y t i c a l M e a s u r e s of Current Change
Three kinds of analytical measures are pre
sented — diffusion indexes, timing distributions, an
direction-of-change tables. These measures ai
in forming a judgment of the magnitude of currei
changes compared to previous changes, the immi
nence of a turning point in the business cycle, ar
the extent of current changes in different parts <
the economy. They also point to developments i
particular industries and places.
Diffusion indexes.—Diffusion indexes are simp]
summary measures of groups of economic series
They express, for a given group, the percent of tt
series which has risen over given intervals of tim<
Their turning points tend to lead the turning poinl
of the aggregate and they measure how widesprea
a business change is. They vary between, the limii
of 100 (all components rising) and zero (all corr
ponents falling) . Widespread increases are oftc
associated with rapid growth in aggregate activity
and widespread declines with sharp reductions.
The diffusion indexes in this report are groupaccording to the timing classification of the NBEI
For monthly series, comparisons are made ov<
1-month intervals ( J a n u a r y - F e b r u a r y , FebruarMarch, etc.) and generally for either 6- or 9-mon
intervals depending upon the irregularity of t

1
Various terms are used to describe the phase
of the business cycle. In this report both "cor
traction" and "recession" are used to descrit
the declining phase. No difference in meaning:
intended.
2
For a more complete description of MCD and i
use in studying economic series, see Businet
Cycle Indicators, Geoffrey H. Moore, editor: N<
tional Bureau of Economic Research, Inc., vot.
ch. 18, "Statistics for Short-Term Economic For<
casting," by Julius Shiskin (Princeton Universi
Press: 1961).

Descriptions and Procedures
series. The indexes based on 1-month intervals
are more "current" but they are also more irregular than the 6- or 9-month indexes (see chart 2) .
Quarterly series are compared over 1-quarter intervals, 3-quarter intervals, and 4-quarter intervals. (See charts 2 and 3 . )
Series numbers preceded by the letter "D"
designate diffusion indexes . When one of these
lumbers corresponds to a basic indicator series
number, it means that the diffusion index has been
computed from components of the indicator series;
for example, the diffusion index numbered "D6" is
computed from components of series number 6.
Diffusion indexes not computed from basic series
components are assigned new numbers.
This report includes 29 diffusion indexes based
Dn 15 indicator series (see tables 4 and 5). Eighteen
Df these indexes are computed by the Bureau of the
Census utilizing nearly 300 components of 9 indicators ( D l , D5, D6, D19, D23, D41, D47, D54,
and D58) . Indexes for these indicators show comparisons for components over 1-month and either
£>- or 9-month spans. The 11 other diffusion indexes are based on 7 indicators closely related to
:he above 9 indicators. They include two National
Industrial Conference Board indexes ( 1- and 3^uarter spans) based on newly approved capital
appropriations ( 17 industries); the First National
Dity Bank of New York index based on quarterly
Drofit reports ( 7 0 0 companies); and 8 NBER diffusion indexes—actual and anticipated — for the fol.owing: Manufacturers' sales (800 companies) and
lew orders (400 companies), based on data from
Dun and Bradstreet, Inc.; carloadings ( 19 comrnodity groups), based on data from the Association
Df American Railroads; and new plant and equipment expenditures ( 16 industries), based on data
:rom the Office of Business Economics and the
securities and Exchange Commission.
Diffusion indexes that are based on anticipations
show what proportion of business enterprises (or
Industries) are forecasting a rise in activity. Comparisons with indexes based on actual changes show
whether there is a generally optimistic bias or a
lag in recognition of actual developments .
Diffusion indexes constructed on the basis of
:urrent data are often highly irregular and require
:areful judgment in their use and interpretation.
Timing distributions .—Distributions of current
'highs" appear to be helpful in appraising the evilence for a prospective business cycle turning
>oint.
Each month a timing distribution is constructed which shows the number of series reachng high values during each month of the expansion.
The timing distribution is summarized by showing
he number of series reaching new highs and the
>ercent currently high for each of several recent
nonths (see table 3 ) .
Similar distributions of
'lows" will be prepared during contractions.
To provide historical perspective for interpreting the distribution of current highs, such distributions are also shown for leading and coincident
series as they appear 3 months and 6 months before
the peak of each of the earlier post-World War II
expansions and at their peaks .




To compile timing distributions for the current
cyclical phase, the data for the principal business
cycle indicators are scanned each month. During a
business cycle expansion, the high value for each
series is recorded.
(For inverted series, that is
series with negative conformity to the business
cycle, low values are taken during expansions and
high values during contractions.) If the values for
2 or more months are equal, the latest date is
taken as the high month. In selecting these values,
erratic values are disregarded, although it is, of
course, difficult to identify an erratic value, particularly for the current month.
The letter "H" is used in the basic data table
(table 2) to identify and highlight the current high
values during the expansion, and the letter "L" to
identify the low values preceding the current highs.
The highs designated during the current cyclical
phase will not necessarily be the specific cycle
peaks. Thus, as new high levels are reached during the expansion, the current highs will be moved
ahead.
On the other hand, lows preceding current
highs are usually specific cycle troughs. Comparisons of the current timing distributions with those
for periods around earlier business cycle troughs
and peaks are helpful for appraising the evidence
of a prospective business cycle turning point.
Interpretations of timing distributions must be
made in light of the fact that a contraction following
a high value reached several months ago may be
the result of an erratic fluctuation and that a new
high may be reached in some future month. In
short, when the percent currently high falls below
50 percent for both the leading and roughly coincident series, this does not necessarily signify that
a business cycle peak has occurred. It may do so,
but it may also simply reflect a short reversal in
the upward movement.
Direction-of-change tables. — Direction-of-change
tables show directions of change ("+" for rising,
"o" for unchanged, and "-" for falling) in the components used for the diffusion indexes .
These
tables provide a convenient view of changing business conditions and are helpful in making an economic interpretation of the movements in the more
highly aggregated statistical measures. That is,
they show which economic activities went up, which
went down, and how long such movements have
persisted. They also help to show how a recession
or recovery spreads from one sector of the economy to another.
Directions of change for each index component
are shown for consecutive months and, depending
upon the irregularity of the series, for either 6- or
9-month spans .

Comparisons of Cyclical Patterns
In forming a judgment about the current intensity
and probable ultimate character of a cyclical fluctuation, some economists find it helpful to compare
the behavior of the indicator series and diffusion
indexes in the current business cycle phase with
their behavior during the corresponding phase of
previous business cycles. These comparisons are
made in different ways depending upon the phase of
the business cycle—whether it is in an expansion
or contraction.

Descriptions and Procedures
Expansions may be compared by measuring
changes from the immediately preceding peak levels . In table 7 of this report, the current expansion
is measured from the May I960 reference peak to
the month of latest reported data. For earlier expansions, percentage changes are computed f r o m
their respective reference peaks to dates which are
the same number of months beyond the succeeding
r e f e r e n c e troughs as the current expansion is beyond its reference trough. This type of comparison
is designated as representing changes computed
from reference peak levels and from reference
trough dates . Although the spans from reference
trough dates are the same number of months for
each expansion, the spans from the preceding peak
dates are different, depending on the length of the
contractions for each period. Also, for those earlier periods of expansion that were shorter than
the current one, the comparisons made in table 7
reflect the status at a point after a new contraction
had set in.
This type of comparison answers the
question whether, and by how much, the current
level of activity exceeds or falls short of the level
at the preceding business cycle peak, a given number of months after the recovery began, and how
the current situation compares, in this respect,
with earlier expansions .
Expansions also may be compared by computing
changes from reference trough levels and from
reference trough dates (table 8) . This type of
comparison measures the extent of the rise from
the trough level so many months after the upswing
began. The same situation exists here as for the
comparisons shown in table 7: For earlier expansions that "were shorter than the current one, the
comparisons show the status at a point after a new
contraction had set in.
Contractions can be compared by computing
changes over the span from the most recent business cycle peak to the current month and over
equal spans from previous reference peaks. This
type of comparison is designated as representing
changes from reference peak levels and from reference peak dates.
These comparisons will be
made during a contraction period.
In addition to comparing cyclical fluctuations on
the basis of reference dates (which are the same
for all series) , comparisons are made on the basis
of specific peak and trough dates identified for
each series.
For example, the specific peak in
retail sales corresponding to the May I960 r e f e r ence peak is April I960; the specific peak in stock
prices is July 1959 (See appendix B) .
Specific
cycle comparisons are shown in table 9. These
comparisons differ from those shown for reference
cycles in that they show the status only up to the
specific peak date. For some series past specific
expansions were shorter than the current one and,
therefore, the earlier comparisons span fewer
months than those for the current expansion.
In order to make historical comparisons, it is
frequently necessary to use data for a closely related series for cycles prior to the initial date
covered by the series used currently. Such comparisons are, therefore, to be considered only
approximate.
Nearly all series have undergone
change in definition, coverage, or estimation pro-




cedure since 1919.
sort are as follows:

The principal

cases of this

7. New private nonfarm dwelling units started
(prior to 1939: Residential building contracts, floor space)
41. Number of employees in nonagricultural establishments (prior to 1929: Employmenl
in manufacturing)
52. Personal income (prior to 1929: Quarterly
data as published by Barger and Klein)
54. Sales of retail stores (prior to 1935: Department store sales)
62. Index of labor cost per unit of output, total
manufacturing (prior to 1946: Productior
worker wage cost per unit) .

Charts
Two types of charts are used to highlight the
cyclical patterns of the business cycle indicators:
Historical time series and cyclical comparisons.
Historical Time Series (charts 1 , 2 , and 3) . —
These charts show the cyclical fluctuations of each
series against the background of expansions and
recessions in general business activity from 1948
to the current month. Shaded areas on the charts
indicate periods of business cycle recession between business cycle peak dates (beginnings of
shaded areas) and business cycle trough dates
(ends of shaded areas) . The shading for a new recession will be entered only after a trough has been
designated.
Several different ratio and arithmetic scales
are used to highlight the cyclical movements of the
various series. The scale selected for each series
is identified in the margin of the chart. Rates of
change of various series can be compared with
each other only where scales are identical. See the
diagram, page 5, for additional help in using these
charts.
Cyclical Comparisons (charts 4 and 5) .—These
charts compare the performance of each series
during the current expansion with its performance
during the expansion phase of previous business
cycles. The usual date sequence followed in charts
is disregarded, and instead the data are alined a1
the strategic point of the business cycle: For expansions, the reference trough (chart 4) and specific trough (chart 5) . Thus these charts facilitate
judgements on the vigor of the current expansior
relative to cyclical movements during the corresponding expansions of previous cycles .
Two types of cyclical comparisons are made.
Chart 4 compares the pattern of the current business or reference cycle ( i . e . , t h e cycle for aggregate economic activity) with movements over the
corresponding phase of previous reference cycles.
Chart 5 compares the pattern of the current specific cycle ( i . e . , the cycle for a particular series)
with the movements over the corresponding phases
of previous specific cycles in that series. In bott
charts, the trough dates are alined. In chart 4, the
levels of the preceding peaks are also alined anc
in chart 5, the levels of the preceding troughs are
also alined. See the section, "Comparisons ol
Cyclical Patterns 11 , for more detailed descriptions
of these comparisons .

Descriptions and Procedures

How to

Charts 1,2,
3
(May)

(Feb.)

P
Peak (P) of cycle indicates
end of expansion and beginning
of Recession (shaded areas)
as designated by NBER

Solid line indicates monthly
data. (Such data may be the
table-2 figures, MCD moving
averages, or diffusion indexes-charts 2 and 3.)

* Trough (T) of cycle indicates
end of recession and beginning
, of Expansion (white areas)
as designated by NBER

' Arabic number indicates latest
month for which data are plotted
("5"= May)
' Broken lines indicate table-2
data for series where an MCD
moving average* is plotted

Parallel lines indicate a break •
in cqntinuity—e.g., data not
available, change in sample reported, change in base used for
computations, etc.
, Roman numbej- indicates latest
quarter for which data are plotted
("I" = first quarter)
See back cover for complete«,
titles and sources of series
otted line indicates anticipated
' 61. Bus. expend., new plant
and equip, (bil. dol.)-Q

Various ratio and arithmetic scales
are used to highlight the cyclical
timing and patterns for each series;
where different scales are used, the
rates of change are not comparable
from series to series. "Scale A" is
an arithmetic scale; "scale L-l" is
a semilogarithm scale with 1 cycle;
"scale L-2", a semilogarithm scale
with 2 cycles, etc.

*Certain irregular series are shown in terms of their MCD moving averages. These series are noted. Such averages are plotted 2 months behind actual data for
MCD 5-term moving averages and 2^2 months behind, for MCD 6-term moving averages. See text for description of MCD moving averages.




Basic Data
Table l.-BASIC DATA AND CURRENT CHANGES FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES: 4 MOST RECENT MONTHS

Basic data1
Series descriptions
(See complete titles and sources on
back cover)

Unit of
measure

NBER LEADING INDICATORS
1. Avg. workweek, prod, workers, mfg...
30.
3.
4.
5.

Per 100 empl.
Nonagri. placements, all industries. Thous
Layoff rate, manufacturing.......... Per 100 empl.
Temporary layoff, all industries.... Thous
Avg. weekly initial claims, State
unemployment insurance
..do

6. New orders, durable goods Indus
24. New orders, mach. and equip, indus..
9. Construction contracts, commercial
and industrial.
10. Contracts and orders, plant, equip..
11. New capital appropriations mfg.'*...

Bil. dol
• •do
Mil. sq. ft.
floor space.
Bil. dol
. .do

Percent change2

Sept.
1964

Aug.
1964

Oct.
1964

Nov.
1964

Avg. Aug. Sept.
change, to
to
1953- Sept. Oct.
3
196? 1964
1964

Oct.
to
Nov.
1964

r4-0.8
r4.0
499
rl.4
87

r40.5
r3.8
514
1.5
127

r40.5
P3.9
514
pl.5
92

P40.9
(NA)
545
(NA)
91

240

241

248

266

5.3

-0.4

-2.9

-7.3

19.34
3.77

19.91
r3.69

r!9.49
3.78

P19.43
P3.88

3.8
4.5

+2.9
-2.1

-2.1
+2.4

-0.3
+2.6

46.30
4.51
r5.41

50.40
r4.53

54.80
P4.57

(NA)
(NA)

9.7
4.9
11.4

+8.9
+0.4

+8.7
+0.9

(NA)
(NA)

1-408
113.0
+16
16074
76.20

r!433
107.8

r!567
r!07.6

P1391
pllO.9

16715
125.89

16559
101.92

(NA)
116.30

40

42

42

42

13.1

-5.0

0.0

0.0

32.0
103.6
8.9

r!03.3

r!02.7

P103.3

6.3
0.7
6.8

-0.3

-0.6

+0.6

+1.7

+1.7

+0.7

0.0 +1.0
0.5 -0.7*
4.8 -5.0 +2.6 (NA)
1.8 +3.0
0.0 +6.0
0.0 (NA)
9.4 -7.1
17.8 -46.0 +27.6 +1.1

7. Private nonfarm housing starts

Ann. rate,
thous
29. New bldg. permits, private housing.. 1957-59=100..
12. Net change, number of businesses4 5. Thous ........
Number. . . .
14. Liabilities of business failures.... Mil. dol
15. Large business failures..
16. Corporate profits after taxes4

No. per week.
Ann. rate,
bil. dol....
17. Ratio, price to unit labor cost, mfg.. 1957-59=100..
4
18. Profits per dol. of sales, mfg. .... Cents. .......
22. Ratio, profits to income originating, corporate, all industries4.... Percent. .....
19. Stock prices, 500 common stocks*.... 1941-43=10...
21. Change in business inventories, all Ann. rate,
industries4 5
bil. dol....
31. Change in book value, manufacturing
..do
20. Change in book value, mfrs.' inventories of materials and supplies5.. ..do

10.4
82.00

7.3 +1.8
+9.4 -11.2
3.8 -4.6 -0.2 +3.1
2
2.7 +4.0 -0.9 (NA)
16.9 -65.2 +19.0 -14.1

5.1

83. a

84.85

85. U

+2.8

2.6
2.5

+1.0

r+7.3

P-2.5

(NA)

3.5

+6.3

-9.8

(NA)

+1.3

r+2.6

Pf2.3

(NA)

1.5

+1.3

-0.3

(NA)

57

60

56

59

6.8

+5.3

-6.7

+5.4

58

61

60

64

5.8

+5.2

-1.6

+6.7

65

74

72

70

7.7 +13.8

-2.7

-2.8

+0.06
105.7

r+0.77
108.2

r+1.00
112.0

p+0.23
113.2

0.49 +0.71
1.3 +2.4

Thous
..do
Percent. .....
..do
..do

r58301
65678
5.1
2.6
3.5

r58458
65534
5.2
2.9
3.4

r58372
65580
5.2
2.8
3.4

P58790
66029
5.0
2.5
3.4

1957-59=100..
..do
Ann. rate,
bil. dol....
..do
..do

123
133.8

126
134.0

127
131.7

p!35
p!34.9

..do
..do
53. Labor income in mining, mfg., constr.. ..do
54. Sales of retail stores
Mil. dol
55. Wholesale prices, except farm products and foods
1957-59=100..

r2372.6
494.9
127.9
22266

37. Purchased materials, percent reporting higher inventories
Percent......
26. Buying policy, prod, mtls., commit..do
32. Vendor performance, percent report..do....
25. Change in unfilled orders, durable
5
goods industries
Bil. dol
23. Industrial materials prices*
1957-59=100..
NBER ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
41. Employees in nonagri. establishments.
42. Total nonagricultural employment....
43 . Unemployment rate, total
40.. Unemployment rate, married males....
45. Avg. weekly insured unemploji, State.
46. Help-wanted advert is ing
50. GNP in 1954 dollars4
49. GNP in current dollars4
57. Final sales4
51. Bank debits outside NYC




519.6
628.4
625.7

101.2

+0.23 -0.77
+3.5 +1.1

+0.3
-0.2
-2.0
4.2
6.0 -11.5
4.8 +2.9

-0.1
+0.1
0.0
+3.4
0.0

+0.7
+0.7
+3.8
+10.7
0.0

+2.4
+0.1

+0.8
-1.7

+6.3
+2.4

+0.7
+0.7
+2.C
-0.5
+0.2

0.3

0.4

3.1
1.1
1.3
1.5
1.3

2424.8
497.9
129.2
r22254

101.2

r2454.0
r498.7
r!27.7
r21362

101.4

1.5
0.5
0.8
0.8

+2.2

p502.0
p!30.2
P21265

+1.0
-0.1

+1.2
+0.2
-1.2
-4.0

plOl . 6

0.2

"0.0

+0.2

P2470.2

+0.6

Basic Data
Table 1.--BASIC DATA AND CURRENT CHANGES FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES: 4 MOST RECENT MONTHS-Continued
Basic data1
Series descriptions
(See complete titles and sources on
back cover)

Unit of
measure

Aug.
1964

Sept.
1964

Percent change2

Oct.
1964

Nov.
1964

Avg. Aug.
change, to
1953- Sept.
19633 1964

Sept.
to
Oct.
1964

Oct.
to
Nov.
1964

NBER LAGGING INDICATORS
61. Business expenditures, new plant
and equipment4
62. Labor cost per unit of output, mfg..
68. Labor cost per dollar of real corporate GNP4
64. Book value of mfrs.1 inventories....
65. Book value of mfrs.1 inventories of
66. Consumer installment debt
67. Bank rates on short-term business

Ann. rate,
bil. dol
1957-59=100..

45.65
97.5

r98.4

r98.7

..do
Bil. dol

r!05.2
60.8

r6l.O

p6l.6

..do
Mil. dol

21.6
56508

21.6
57021

p21.8
57431

3.2
0.6

+0.9

+0.3

+2.3
-0.5

(NA)

0.9
0.5

+0.3

+1.0

(NA)

(NA)
(NA)

0.8
0.8

0.0
+0.9

+0.9
+0.7

(NA)
(NA)

+6.0
+3.7
-2.9

-3.9 -9.3
-0.9 +1.1
+3.8 +12.3

a46.70
P98.2

4.98

2.3

OTHER U.S. SERIES WITH BUSINESS
CYCLE SIGNIFICANCE
82. Federal cash payments to public
83.
84.
95.
90.

Ann. rate,
bil. dol....
Federal cash receipts from public... ..do
5
Federal cash surplus or deficit .... . .do.... .....
Balance, Federal income and product
account4 5
..do
Defense Dept. oblig., procurement... Mil. dol.....

Defense Dept. obligations total.... . .do
Military contract awards in U.S
. . do
New orders, defense products. ....... Bil. dol
5
Free reserves*
Mil. dol
Change in money supply5
Ann. rate,
percent. . .
98. Change in money supply and time de5
posits
..do
10. Total private borrowing4.....
Ann. rate,
bil. dol....
11. Corporate gross savings4
..do
. .do.
91.
92.
99.
93.
85.

5

.13. Change, consumer installment debt .. ..do
14. Treasury bill rate*.
Percent. .....
. .do
16. Corporate bond yields*...
..do
. .do....
18. Mortgage yields*
86. Exports, excluding military aid
89. U.S. balance of payments4
81.
94.
96.
97.

5

Consumer prices
Construction contracts, value
Unfilled orders, dur. goods indus...
Backlog of capital appro, mfg.6

..do
Mil. dol
..do
..do
..do
1957-59=100..
..do
Bil. dol
..do

117.1
110.0
-7.1

124.1
114.1
-10.0

119.3
113.1
-6.2

108.2
114.3
+6.1

-5.2
716

1165

908

(NA)

4147
1915
1.86
+79

4472
2291
rl.98
+90

3853
1879
r2.38
+103

r+3.84

r+6.12

r+4.56

r+7.44

r+8.16

r+8.64 p+10.68

2.52 +0.72

+0.48 +2.04

-3.33 -0.65

5.7
5.4
5.6

2.5
26.9 +62.7

-22.1

(NA)

(NA)
15.1
26.2
(NA)
pi. 85 23.0
p-34 104.2

+7.8
+19.6
+6.5
+11

-13.8 (NA)
-18.0 (NA)
+20.2 -22.3
+13 -137

2.78

+2.28

-1.56 -0.72

p+3.84

55324
44676
+4.75

+5.24

+1.91

+1.26

11.6
4.3
1.22 +0.49

+5.22
3.51
4.14
4.43
3.19

+6.16
3.53
4.16
4.49
3.23

+4.92
3.58
4.16
4.49
3.25

(NA)
3.62
442
4.47
3.18

0.85 +0.94
7.3 +0.6
1.8 +0.5
1.7 +1.4
2.6 +1.3

-1.24
+1.4
0.0
0.0
+0.6

(NA)
+1.1
-1.0
-0.4
-2.2

5.46
2084.9
1592.2
+492.7
r-562

5.46
2271.2
1557.5
+713.7

5.45
2134.3
1550.7
+583.6

5.45
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)

-0.2
0.0
0.58
-6.0
4.6 +8.9
3.6 -2.2
-0.4
59.0 +221.0 -130.1
286

0.0
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)

108.2
121
51.37

108.2
131
r52.14
pH.95

108.3
136
r53.14

(NA)
(NA)
P53.37

+0.1
+3.8
+1.S

(NA)
(NA)
+0.4

0.0
0.2
7.0 +8.3
1.5 +1.5
6.6 +13.8

r = revised; p = preliminary; e = estimated; a = anticipated; NA » not available.
1
Series are seasonally adjusted except for those series, indicated by an asterisk (*), that appear to contain no seaonal movement. See additional basic data and notes in table 2.
2
To facilitate interpretations of cyclical movements, those series that usually fall when general, business activity
ises and rise when business falls are inverted so that rises are shown as declines and declines as rises (see series 3,
, 5, 14, 15, 40, 43, and 45).
Percent changes are calculated in the usual way but the signs are reversed; e.g., if the
ate of decrease is 0.6 percent, it is shown as +0.6. See footnote 5 for other "change" qualifications.
3
This average is based on month-to-month (or quarter-to-quarter) changes without regard to sign. The period varies
mong the series, covering 1953-63 for most series.
4
Quarterly series. Figures are placed in the middle month of quarter.
5
Since basic data for this series are expressed in plus or minus amounts, the changes are month-to-month (or quarterD-quarter) differences expressed in the same unit of measure as the basic data, rather than in percent.
b
End-of-quarter series. Figures are placed in the last month of quarter.




Basic Data
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES: 1948 TO PRESENT
NBER Leading Indicators
(Nov.)
P

(Oct.)
T

(July)
P

(Aug.)
T

(July) (Apr.)
P
T

(May) (Feb.)
P
T

Sensitive employment and unemployment indicators }

42
g. workweek, prod, wkrs., mfg. (hours)

41
40

1

39
38

2. Accession rate, mfg. (per 100 employees)

5

4

^

3
700

30. Nonagri. placements, all Indus, (thous.)

600 7
500 i
u

400
3. Layoff rate, mfg. (per 100 employees
inverted scale

2

-§

3
4. Temp, layoff, all indus. (thous.-inverted
scale. MCD moving avg.--5-term

75
100
1252
175
200
225
250

5- Avg. weekly initial claims, State unempl
insur. (thous.—inverted scale"

200

300;
400
500
1948

1949

1950

1951

1952

1953

See "How to Read Charts 1, 2, and 3," page 5.




1954

1955

1956

1957

1958

1959

1960

1961

1962

T963

1964

Basic Data
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES: 1948 TO PRESENT—Con.
NBER Leading Indicators—Con.
(Nov.)
P

(July)
P

(Oct.)
T

(July) (Apr.)
P
T

(Aug.)
T

(May) (Feb.)
P
T

6. New orders, dur. goods Indus, (bil. dol.)

24. New orders, macli. and equip indus. (bil. dol.

9. Constr. contracts, com. and indus. (mil. sq. ft. of
floor area. MCD moving avg.—6-ter

10. Contracts and orders, plant and equip, (bil. dol

11. New capital appropriations, mfg., Q (bil. dol

7. Private nonfarm housing starts (millions
MCD moving avg.—6-term

29. New bldq. permits, private housing units
(index: 1957-59-foO)

-"80
1948

1949

1950

1951

1952

1953

tt "How to Read Charts 1, 2, and 3," page 5.




1954

1955

1956

1957

1958

1959

1960

1961

1962

1963

1964

10

Basic Data
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES: 1948 TO PRESENT— Con.
NBER Leading Indicators — Con.
(Nov.)
P

(Oct.)
T

(July)
P

(July) (Apr.)
P
T

(Aug.)
T

(May) (Feb.)
P
T

New businesses and business failures |

12. Change, no. of businesses (thous

+12

+8 ,
+4

:

0

-4
13. New bus. incorporations (thous.)

20
18
16
14 !

12 -i
10

8

20

14. Liab. of bus. failures (mil. dol.—
inverted scale. MCD moving avg.—6-term)

40

60

«•;

»i
100
120
140
160
15. Large bus. failures (no. per wk.~
inverted scale. MCD moving avg.—6-term)

20

30
40
50
Illllllll Illllllllll Illllll!Ill MlnUtf tfUlllll Itlllllllll Illllllllll llllllfcLtlUlllll Illllllllll lilllfilflftlllllllll Illllllllll Illllllllll Illlllll

1948

1949 1950

1951 1952 1953 1954 1955 1956

See "How to Read Charts 1, 2, and 3," page 5.




1957 1958 1959 1960 1961 1962 1963

60
1964

,

11

Basic Data
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES: 1948 TO PRESENT—Con.
NBER Leading Indicators—Con.
(Nov.)
P

(Oct.)
T

(July)
P

(Aug.)
T

(July) (Apr.)
P
T

(May) (Feb.)
P
T

Profits and stock prices

16. Corporate profits, after taxes, Q (bil. dol

17. Ratio, price to unit labor cost, mfg. (index: 1957-59 = 100)

18. Profits per dollar of sales, mfg., Q (cents)

22. Ratio, profits to income originating, corporate,
all industries, Q (percent)

19. Stock prices. 500 common stocks
.(index: 1941-43=10)

-J 20

1948

1949

1950

1951

1952

1953

>ee "How to Read Charts 1,2, and 3," page 5.




1954

1955

1956

1957

1958

1959

1960

1961

1962 1963

1964

12

Basic Data
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES: 1948 TO PRESENT—Con.
NBER Leading Indicators—Con.
(Nov.)
P

(Oct.)
T

(July)
P

(Aug.)
T

(July) (Apr.)
P
T

(May) (Feb.)
P
T

Inventory investment, buying policy, and sensitive prices]
Change in bus. inventories, all indus., Q (bil. dol.)

31. Change in book value, mfg. and
trade inventories(Ann. rate, bil. doU
MCD moving avg,--4-term

20. Change in book value, mfrs.' inventories,
materials, and supplies (Ann. rate, bil. dol.i

37. Purchased materials percent reporting higher

26. Buying policy, prod, mtls., percent reporting commitments 60 days or longer

32. Vendor performance, percent reporting slower deliveries

25. Change in unfilled orders, dur. goods indus. (bil. dol.
MCD moving avg.--4-term)

23. Industrial materials prices (index: 1957-59=100)

1948

1949 1950 1951 1952

1953 1954 1955 1956 1957 1958 1959 1960 1961 1962 1963

See "How to Read Charts 1, 2, an d 3," page 5.




1964

Basic Data

13

BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES: 1948 TO PRESENT—Con.
NBER R o u g h l y C o i n c i d e n t I n d i c a t o r s

Employment and unemployment!

— 60
41. Employees in nonagr. establishments (millions)

50
65

42. Total nonagr. employment (millions)

60

55

1

50
43. Unemployment rate (percent-inverted scale)

3
4
5

1

6
7
8
40. Unemployment rate, married males
(percent—inverted scale)

2
3
4

1

5
6
45. Avg. weekly insured unemployment rate
(percent—inverted scale)

3
4

5

1

6
7
46. Help-wanted advertising (index: 1957-59 = 100)

140
120
100

cr>
o>

80 |
60

1948

1949

1950

1951

1952

1953

See "How to Read Charts 1, 2, and 3," page 5.




1954

1955

1956

1957

1958

1959

1960

1961

1962

1963

1964

14

Basic Data
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES: 1948 TO PRESENT—Con.
NBER Roughly Coincident I n d i c a t o r s — C o n .
(Nov.)
P

(Oct.)
T

(July)
P

(Aug.)
T

(July) (Apr.)
P
T

(May) (Feb.)
P
T

140
130
47. Industrial production (index: 1957-59=100)

120
110
100
90
550

500

50. GNP in 1954 dollars, Q (bil. dol.)

450 "

400
650
600
49. GNP in current dollars, Q (bil.

dol.)

550
500
450

650
600
550
57. Final sales, Q (bil. dol.)

500
450
400^

1
350

300

-J 250
1948 1949 1950 1951 1952 1953 1954 1955 1956 1957 1958 1959 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964
See "How to Reod Charts 1, 2, and 3," page 5.




Basic Data
CHART 1 b

BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES: 1948 TO PRESENT—Con.

B
(Nov.)
P

15

NBER Roughly C o i n c i d e n t I n d i c a t o r s — Con.

(Oct.)
T

(July)
P

(Aug.)
T

(July) (Apr.)
P
T

(May) (Feb.)
P
T

52. Personal income (bil. dol

53. Labor income in mining, mfg., constr. (bil.

54. Sales of retail stores (bil.

dol.)

dol.)

55. Wholesale prices exc. farm prod, and foods
(index: 1957-59=100)

[Wholesale prices)

1948

1949

1950

1951

1952

1953

See "How to Read Charts 1, 2, and 3," page 5.




1954

1955

1956

1957

1958

1959

1960

1961

1962

1963

1964

16

Basic Data

CHART 1

ta

BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES: 1948 TO PRESENT—Con.

C
(Nov.)
P

NBER Lagging Indicators

(Oct.)
T

(July)
P

(Aug.)
T

(JulyHApr.)
P
T

(May) (Feb.)
P
T

61. Bus. expend., new plant andequip., Q (bil.

dol.)

Investment expenditures!

62. Labor cost per unit of output, mfg. (index: 1957-59=100)

68. Labor cost per dol. of real corp. GNP, Q (index: 1957-59=100)

64. Book value of mfrs.' inventories (bil. dol.)

65. Book value of mfrs.' inventories, finished goods (bil.

dol.)

66. Consumer installment debt (bil. dol.

67. Bank rates on short-term bus. loans, Q (percent)

1948

1949

1950

1951 1952 1953 1954

See "How to Read Charts 1, 2, and 3," page 5.




1955 1956

1957

1958

1959 1960

1961

1962 1963

1964

17

Basic Data
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES:

1948 TO PRESENT—Con.

Other U.S. S e r i e s with B u s i n e s s C y c l e S i g n i f i c a n c e
(Nov.)

(Oct.)

(July)

(Aug.)

P

T

P

T

(July) (Apr.)

P

(May) (Feb.)

T

P

T

y^iy

140

82. Fed- cash payments to public (bil. dol.
MCD moving avg.—6 term)

120
CH

100 ~*
o

^

83. Fed. cash receipts from public (bil. dol
MCD moving avg.—6-term;

v

80
120
100 «,,

"3
*

80

r^
60

84. Fed. cash surplus or deficit (bil. dol.
MCD moving avg.—6-term)

+10

•W
-10
95. Surplus or deficit. Fed. income and
product acct., Q (bil. dol.)

+10

0

,/vhM

-10
2.5

90. Defense Dept. oblig., procurement (bil. dol.
MCD moving avg.—o-term)

1.0 <
o
M

1.0

5

91. Defense
Dept. oblig., Tota
total (bil. dot.
uetense Uept.
MCD moving avg.--6-term)

""Vx.A'

1

4

^*AJ ^

!^A

i v

. 99. New orders, defense products (bil. dol.
'.
MCD moving avg.--6-term)

I

3

92. Military contract awards in U.S. (bil. dol.
MCD moving avg.—6-term)^
K
*fH«

^

3.0 ,0

Mf*1

I;- '

2.0 i

3.0
2.0 *

1.0
1948

1949

1950

1951

1952 1953 1954 1955 1956 1957 1958 1959 1960 1961 1962 1963

See "Hc-v to Read Charts 1, 2, and 3," page 5.




1964

18

Basic Data

CHART 1

BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES: 1948 TO PRESENT—Con.
D • Other U.S. Series with Business Cycle Significance—Con.

(Nov.)

(Oct.)

(July)

(Au«.)

P

T

P

T

(July) (Apr.)

P

T

(May) (F«b.)
P
T

Reserves, money supply and financin

,+1.2
93. Free reserves (bil. dol.)

40.6 <

0

*

HX6
-HO

85. Change in money supply (Ann. rate
percent, MCD moving avg.~6 term)

•4
45
0
415
98. Change in money supply and time deposits (Ann. rate
percent, MCD moving avg.—6 term)

410 «

«i
0
60

$

110. Total private borrowing (Ann. rate, bil. dol.

30

1

40
50
111.1 Corporate gross savings (Ann. rate, bil. dol.)

40

]

30
+6
•^
f-C"
>?$

^

112. Changes in bank loans to businesses (Ann, rate, bil. dol.
MCD moving avg.-^5-term)
——^
—^"-"v

(

113. Change in consumer installment debt. (Ann. rate, bil. dol.)

k

<

+3 1

03

M

•1-6

"1
0
-3
1948 1949 1950 1951 1952 1953 1954 1955 1956 1957 1958 1959 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964
W 'How to Read Charts 1, 2, and 3," page i




19

Basic Data
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES: 1948 TO PRESENT—Con.

CHART 1

•••^•^•^•.^^^^•••••••^•^^^•••••••^^••••••••••••••••••••M^MHHBHMaHH^^HM^^^^^KB^MlMH^B^BMBIM^^HMMMBBBMBK

D • Other U.S. Series with Business Cycle Significance-Con.
(Nov.)
P

(Oct.)
T

(July)
P

(July) (Apr.)
P
T

(Aug.)
T

-i3
114. Treasury bill rate (percent)

-4

1

115. Treasury bond yields (percent)

116. Corporate bond yields (percent)

117. Municipal bond yields (percent)

118. Mortgage yields (percent)

tUll III II III III III II III III III II II raft m\\ III III II III mill llllHil dll III III II III I! Ill II III III III II III III III

1948

1949

1950

1951 1952

1953

e "How to Read Charts 1, 2, and 3," page 5.




1954

1955 1956

1957

1958

1959

1960

1961

1962 1963

1964

20

Basic Data
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES: 1948 TO PRESENT—Con.

CHART 1

D || Other U.S. S e r i e s with B u s i n e s s Cycle S i g n i f i c a n c e - - C o n .
(Nov.)
P

(Oct.)
T

(July)
P

(Aug.)
T

(July) (Apr.)
P
T

i 1

(May) (Feb.)
P
T

I

I I

-[2.2

86. Exports, exc. military aid (bil. dol.)

87. General imports (bil. dol.)

89. Excess of receipts or payments in
^U.S. balance of payments, Q (bil. dol.)

94. Construction contracts, value (index: 1957-59=100.
MCD moving avg.--5-term)

96. Mfrs.' unfilled orders, dur. goods indus. (bil. dol.)

97. Backlog of cap. appropriations, mfg., Q (bil. dol.)

1948

1949 1950

1951 1952 1953 1954 1955 1956 1957 1958 1959 1960 1961 1962 1963

See "How to Read Charts 1, 2, and 3," page 5.




1964

21

Basic Data
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES: 1948 TO PRESENT—Con.
I n t e r n a t i o n a l C o m p a r i s o n s o f Industrial P r o d u c t i o n
(May) (F«b.)

P
[Industrial production indexes

T

47. United States (index: 1957-59-100)

123. Canada (index: 1957-59-100)

122. United Kingdom (index: 1957-59-100)

121. OECD European countries (index: 1957-59=100)

125. West Germony (index: 1957-59-100)

127. Italy (index: 1957-59=100)

948

1949 1950

1951 1952 1953 1954

e "How to Read Charts 1, 2, and 3,' page 5.




1955 1956

1957

1958

1959

1960 1961

1962 1963 1964

22

Basic Data
Table 2-BASIC DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES: JANUARY 1961 TO PRESENT

Series are seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated
by an asterisk (*). Low values preceding current highs are indicated by CD and current highs, by [EH; the. reverse is
true for inverse series (series 3} 4> 5> 14> 15? 40, 43, and 45). Series numbers are for identification only and dc
not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. The "r" indicates
revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.

1TBER Leading Indicators
Year and
month

1961
January
February
MEirch
April
May
June
July

September
October, .......

1962
January

March
April
May
.
June
July
August. ........
September
December
1963
January
February
April
May
July
August
October ........
November

1. Avg. work- 2. Accession
week, produc- rate , manution workers, facturing2
manufacturing1

(Hours)
Revisecf
39,2
39.4
39 3
39 5
39 6
39 8

40 o

April
May
July
September
October
November •
December. ......
1

39
37
44
y p
/ p

40
y 0
/ p
3 7

4. Persons
on temporary
layoff, all
industries3

6. New orders, durable goods
industries

24. New orders, machir
ery and
equipment
industries 5

(Thous . ) (Bil. dol.)

(Bil. dol.)

5. Average
weekly initial claims,
State unemployment insurance4

(Per 100

(Thous.)

employees)
Revised6

©4 4-4
447
459
448
469
494
493
512
507
524
540
551

2.7
©3.0
24
2 i
2 2
2 3
22
19
2 2

(Thous.)
173
©222
215
141
150
151
101
136
127
113
115
127

393
©429
379
381
358
334
348
316
329
304
305
296

©13 95
14.31
14.53
15.51
15.59
15.89
15.92
16.12
15.97
16.26
16.74
17.26

2 76
2.74
2.71
2.74
2.70
2.80
3.03
3.07
2.88
2.91
2.98
2.96

304
291
279
280
300
309
308
303
300
300
298
317

17.70
17.70
17.15
17.02
17.22
16.65
16.91
16.59
16.55
17.29
16.73
17.33

3.15
3.30
2.97
3.31
3.10
3.02
3.07
2.94
2.98
3.05
3.16
.3.07

18.47
18.23
18.78
19.04
18.74
17.68
18.28
18.06
18.24
18.62
18.11
17.97

3.25
3.21
3.22
3.35
3.42
3.29
3.33
3.31
3.42
3.44
3.27
3.61

40 1
39 6
40 3
40 6
40 3

43
/ "3
y, i

40 1

04.3

yn /
/n 5
40 6
/n L
40 4

42
4.1
4.1
4.2
4.0
4.2
4.0
3.9
3.9
3.8
3.8

557
559
572
574
0592
557
557
550
555
554
563
547

1.8
1.9
1.7
1.8
2.0
2.0
2.1
2.3
1.9
2.0
1.9

135
88
118
107
126
124
128
127
127
125
133
120

3.8
3.8
3.8
4.0
3.9
3.9
3.9
3.8
38
39
3.7
40

552
555
553
560
551
541
541
540
552
570
530
532

1.9
1.8
1.8
1.9
1.9
1.8
1.9
2.0
1.9
1.8
1.8
1.7

152
121
107
138
95
92
131
130
108
135
134
97

313
294
285*
290
286
287
283
285
282
281
280
308

3.8
4.0
40
39
3.8
41
4.0
40
3.8
D3 9
(NA)

536
535
520
522
533
516
523
499
514
514
545

1.7
1.8
1.8
1.7
1.7
1.6
2.0

123
123
91
122
104
117
129
087
127
92

289
264
273
260
260
259
261
0240
241
248
266
7
244

yn

£

40 3
40 5
40 2
40 4
40 3

40.5
40 3
40 4
40 1
40 4
40 5
40 4
40 4
/n *>
40 6
/n *;
yn n

1964
January
February

(Per 100
employees)
Revised6

30. Nonagri- 3. Layoff
rate, manucultural
placements, facturing
all industries

40 2

40 7
yn A
/n 7
40 6
/n A
40 6
in s
/n ^
/n c
rrn n yn Q

1.9
19
20

2-.1

01.4

1.5
pi. 5
(NA)

91

TQ 11
1 Q c;n
I Q p£

pn i A
1Q qy

pn np

021 25
i Q ^y
1VO4

3 62
3 41
3 46
3 61
03 93
3 92
3 77
? 77

1 Q en

r3 69

_1 Q I Q
riy . 47
0
ply .1 4.3

? 7#
r>? ££

_T Q

2
© = December 1960.
CDs October 1960.
Beginning with April 1962, the 1960 Census is used as the benchmark for computing this series, Prior to April 1962
the 1950 Census is used as the benchmark.
^Data
exclude Puerto Rico which is included in figures published by source agency.
5
(C) • November I960.
6
See "New Features and Changes for This Issue," page ii.
7
Week ended December 12.




23

Basic Data
Table 2.-BASIC DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES: JANUARY 1961 TO PRESEKT-Continued

Jeries are seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated
by an asterisk (*). Low values preceding current highs are indicated by CD and current highs, by HTI; the reverse is
true for inverse series (series 3, 4, 5, 14, 15, 40* 43, and 45). Series numbers are for identification only and do
not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. The "r" indicates
revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
N3ER Leading Indicators — Continued
Year and
month

9. Construction contracts,
commercial and
industrial
buildings
(Mil. sq. ft.
floor space)

10. Contracts
and orders,
plant and
equipment

11. Newly approved capital
appropriations,
1000 manufacturing corporations1

(Bil. dol.)

(Bil. dol.)

7. New private
nonfarm dwelling units
started 2

(Ann. rate,
thous . )

29. New private housing
units authorized by local
building permits 2
(1957-59=100)

12. Net change 13. New business incorpoin business
rations
population,
operating
businesses

(Thous . )

(Number)

1961

pril
fety

ulv
ugust . ........
bvember
ecember

36.21
36.49
37.49
35.62
©35.16
36.73
36.57
39.32
38.73
33.88
41.61
41.69

3.51
3.39
©3.20
3.28
3.27
3.39
3.57
3.66
3.40
3.48
3.66
3.50

38.70
42.75
45.90
42.72
44.64
41.16
40.56
42.69
40.96
41.08
42.20
41.89

3.71
3.98
3.71
3.96
3.76
3.66
3.72
3.61
3.56
3.66
3.82
3.99

44.61
45.11
39.42
40.23
47.00
51.39
45.78
44.93
43.88
50.81
43.14
44.15

3.84
3.82
3.75
3.98
4.28
3.96
3.94
3.91
4.08
4.17
4.32
04.68

51.64
52.47
48.17
©54.84
46.22
48.22
53.55
46.30
50.40
54.80
(NA)

4.37
4.12
4.10
4.37
4.63
4.63
4.50
4.51
r4.53
P4.57
(NA)

2.26
2.46
2.B5
2.62

1,216
1,199
1,305
1,133
1,215
1,340
1,305
1,252
1,453
1,381
1,319
1,324

89.5
88.2
91.3
91.4
93.2
98.7
98.9
101.9
100.2
104.2
101.8
99.0

1,392
1,253
1,460
1,489
1,501
1,366
1,423
1,459
1,328
1,491
1,564
1,541

103.8
109.1
104.0
111.9
103.8
106.1
108.7
107.1
109.1
107.2
113.0
112.0

1,287
1,418
1,551
1,656
1,651
1,558
1,584
1,454
1,712
[E 1,824
1,544
1,524

111.8
108.2
112.9
113.6
120.0
119.3
116.5
113.5
121.0
123.6
119.9
123.7

1,688
1,613
1,638
1,501
1,507
1,585
1,483
1,408
rl,433
rl,567
Pl,391

117.6
©123.9
121.5
112.9
112.1
115.2
109.6
113.0
107.8
r!07.6
pllO.9

©+6
+10
'+9
+11

©13,607
14,570
14,658
15,327
15,298
15,431
15,492
15,277
15,402
16,035
16,149
15,881

1962
ebruary
arch
pril

une
eptember
etcher
ovember

1963
anuary
arch
pril

une
ugust
eptember
ctober
DV ember
enemher. ......

2.86
2. 56

3!o4
3*.25

2*.68

3!35
4*. 07
3*. 93

+11
+12
+11
+11

+11
+11
+13
+12

15,599
15,758
15,670
15,372
15,245
14,947
15,171
15,056
15,249
14,892
14,951
14,985
14,924
15,390
15,563
15,305
15,682
15,536
15,431
16,093
15,689
16,275
15,759
15,867

1964
ebruary
arch
pril

me
ily

icr\lS 1;
sptember ......
Dvember

(D * 3rd quarter I960.




4.01
r4.88
[H]T5.a

© « December 1960.

+16

E+17
+16

16,193
16,086
16,064
16,242
15,932
15,797
15,852
16,074
SJ 16, 71 5
16,559
(NA)

24

Basic Data
Table 2.-BASIC DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES: JANUARY 1961 TO PRESENT-Continued

Series are seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated
by an asterisk (*). Low values preceding current highs are indicated by © and current highs, by fHl; the reverse is
true for inverse series (series 3, 4> 5, 14, 15, 40, 43, and 45).
Series numbers are for identification only and dc
not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. The "r" indicates
revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA11, not available.

NBER Leading Indicators — Continued
Year and
month

14 . Current
liabilities
of business
failures1

(Mil. dol.)

15. Business 16. Corporate profits
failures
with liabil- after taxes
ities of
$100,000 and
over 2

17. Ratio,
price to
unit labor
cost index,
manufacturing

(Number per
week)

(1957-59=
100)

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.

18. Profits
(before taxes) per dol.
sales, all
mfg. corporations

22. Ratio,
profits to
income originating,
corporate,
all indus.

19. Stock
prices, 500
common
stocks* 2

(Cents)

(Percent)

(1941-43=10)

21. Change i
business inventories af
ter valuatio
adjustment,
all indus.
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

1961

Msirch
April
May
July
August. ........
October
November

77.79
83.73
116.17
76.88
82.96
86.69
80.15
94.47
126.12
72.28
119.93
71.81

38
41
39
39
42
40
43
36
39
42
39
38

101.53
86.03
77.40
107.15
89.80
93.15
107.98
121.85
106.02
129.87
96.62
99.61

37
©32
36
38
38
41
38
45
40
46
42
37

146 .46
93.05
94.12
88.15
115.05
91.07
144.50
©52. 86
94.52
99.92
255.72
87.17

49
43
42
40
51
38
39
42
43
42
38
39

87.70
121.87
107.25
98.50
90.44
153.07
151.92
76.20
125.89
101.92
116.30

41
42
37
46
39
38
43
40
42
42
42

©19^5
2l!s
22.0

24^5

99.3
©98.8
98.9
100.4
100.3
101.0
101.4
102.0
101.6
101.5
101.7
102.3

©6>!6

©7!<9

7!6

8*.6

7*.9

8*.5

8*.6

9^3

&'.2

9!2

s!i

9il

8.1

9il

8.3

9.1

7!9

9il

8.5

9^4

B.5

9ii

8*.8

9.*8

039 !i

10.4

8.9

[HI 10. 5

S.*9

10.4

59.72
62.17
64.12
65.83
66.50
65.62
65.44
67.79
67.26
68.00
71.08
71.74

©-3^9
+2.1
+3.7
+5 .'6

1962

February
March
April
May
July
October

24^5
24^9
25.0
25 '.7

101.3
101.7
101.8
100.9
101.1
100.4
100.7
100.7
101.9
100.7
101.1
100.5

69.07
70.22
70.29
68.05
62.99
55.63
56.97
58.52
58.00
56.17
60.04
62.64

(B]+6!9
+6.'l
+5.'l
+5 '.4

1963

March
April
May
July
August
September - - - f . ,
October
DeoeniheT*, . . t , t ,

25^5
26>!6
26>!7
2S'.3

100.6
100.8
101.3
101.3
101.8
102.7
102.3
101.5
101.9
102.0
101.9
102.4

65.06
65.92
65.67
68.76
70.14
70.11
69.07
70.98
72.85
73.03
72.62
74.17

+3^6
+3l6
+4.2
+6.4

1964

March
April
May
June
July
August
October, .......

1

2
CD = June 1960.
CD = October 1960.
Average for December 16, 17, and 18.

3




3l! 2

31.9

(EJ32.'6

103.2
103.3
102.7
0103.8
103.7
102.9
103.5
103.6
r!03.3
r!02.7
P103.3

76.45
77.39
78.80
79.94
80.72
80.24
83.22
82.00
83.41
84.85
©85.44
3
83.91

+2.*5'
+3.7

+2*.8

25

Basic Data
Table 2.-BASIC DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES: JANUARY 1961 TO PRESENT-Continued

sries are seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain.no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated
by an asterisk (*). Low values preceding current highs are indicated by (L) and current highs, by [H!: the reverse is
true for inverse series (series 3, 4? 5, 14? 15> 40, 43? and 45). Series numbers are for identification only and do
not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. The "r" indicates
revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
NBER Leading Indicators — Continued
31. Change in
book value,
manufacturing
and trade inventories,
total 1

Year and
month

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

20. Change in 37. Purchased
book value,
materials,
mfrs. ' inven- percent retories of ma- porting higher
inventories
terials and
supplies1
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

26. Production
matls., percent reporting
commitments
60 days or
longer* 1
(Percent
reporting)

(Percent
reporting)

32. Vendor
performance,
percent reporting slower
deliveries* 2
(Percent
reporting)

25. Change in 23. Industrial
unfilled ormaterials
ders, durable prices* -1
goods industries 3

(Bil. dol.)

(1957-59=100)

1961

3rll.

me
lly

3~bober

-4.3
-2.2
-7.2
+1.0
+0.8
-0.8
+2.0
+3.1
+4.0
+1.9
+7.0
+6.2

-1.6
-1.9
-2.0
-1.5
-1.3
-1.6
+0.8
+2.9
+2.2
+0.3
+1.3
0+6.6

41
©35
39
42
46
43
46
54
57
56
52
55

51
49
50
57
54
56
56
55
57
59
59
54

38
40
40
47
48
48
49
52
55
55
51
53

-0.39
-0.07
-0.42
+0.36
+0.07
+0.11
+0.37
+0.42
+0.01
+0.25
+0.41
+0.65

97.3
99.3
103.1
104.1
104.4
101.0
101.7
102.9
102.9
102.3
98.9
101.0

+6.0
+5.7
+6.0
+2.6
+7.1
+5.6
+3.9
+2.0
+5.6
+5.5
+1.2
+5.1

+1.9
+3.0
+2.7
+0.8
+1.0
+0.2
-2.4
-0.3
+1.8
-0.2
+0.5
-1.7

58
57
57
55
53
48
45
46
44
45
49
48

57
61
56
55
49
52
58
52
52
55
52
51

56
56
55
48
46
42
44
44
48
48
48
48

+0.63
+0.62
-0.67
-0.34
-0.46
-0.37
-0.25
-0.60
-0.36
+0.21
-0.40
+0.91

102.9
100.6
100.4
98.3
97.8
95.4
94.2
94.5
94.0
94.9
96.4
95.8

+3.1
+2.5
+3.0
+4.6
+2.7
+5.1
+6.0
+1.8
+5.6
+7.1
LHj+9.6
+7.2

+0.6
+0.4
-0.2
+0.9
-0.3
+0.7
-0.5
+1.7
-0.4
+1.7
-0.2
-0.7

46
48
47
50
55
57
56
50
49
46
42
42

50
55
54
53
52
57
54
55
56
53
54
55

50
52
54
60
58
54
42
48
52
48
48
46

+0.96
+0.68
+0.94
+0.85
+0.33
-0.58
-0.54
-0.05
+0.38
+0.10
-0.09
-0.40

95.5
95.1
94.4
94.5
95.2
93.9
94.2
94.2
94.1
96.3
97.3
97.7

+3.5
0.0
+3.7
+7.8
+1.6
+1.4
+0.2
+1.0
r+7.3
P-2.5
(NA)

-1.9
-0.5
0.0
-1.0
-0.1
-0.7
-1.6
+1.3
r+2.6
1*2.3
(NA)

40
50
54
55
51
56
58
57
©60
56
59
57

53
54
56
59
58
59
58
58
61
60
©64

55
54
60
60
•63
55
59
65
074
72
70

+0.40
+0.57
+0.16
+1.04
+0.38
+0.81
(3+1.26
+0.06
r+0.77
r+1.00
pfO.23

98.5
98.5
98.9
102.4
100.9
101.4
102.5
105.7
108.2
112.0
0113.2
4
113.7

1962

irch
Dril
ay
lly

3"tober
Dvember

1963
inuary
3ril

me
lly

aptAirihfvr t

T r

, ,,

T T

» » t

yv ember
afiftmheT*. .

1964

irch
Dril
lly
IgUSt

jptember
j-tober
jvember
1

2
© = December I960.
(D = March I960.
Average for December 15, 16, and 17.

4




1

©

= January 1960.

26

Basic Data
Table 2.-BASIC DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES: JANUARY 1961 TO PRESENT-Continued

Series are seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicate!
by an asterisk (*). Low values preceding current highs are indicated by (L) and current highs, by [H"J; the reverse i;
true for inverse series (series 3, 4, 5, 14, 15, 40, 43, and 45). Series numbers are for identification only and d«
not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. The "r" indicate;
revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
NBER Roughly Coincident Indicators
Year and
month

1961

February
fferch
April
May
June
July
August. ........
October

1962
January
February
March.
April
May

July
August
October

41. Employees
in nonagricultural establishments

42. Total
43. Unemnonagricul- ployment
rate, total1
tural employment,
labor force
survey1 2

40. Unemployment
rate, married males1

45. Avg.
weekly insured unemployment
rate, State
programs3

46. Helpwanted advertising
in newspapers

47. Industrial production

50. Gross
national
product in
1954 dollars

(1957-59=
100)

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

(Thous.)

(Percent)

(Percent)

(Percent)

53,533
©53,380
53,483
53,496
53,678
53,929
54,061
54,206
54,220
54,330
54,597
54,723

61,034
60,897
61,229
61,154
61,134
61,622
61,259
61,274
61,299
61,463
61,896
61,747

6.7
6.9
6.9
7.0
©7.1
6.9
6.9
6.7
6.7
6.6
6.2
6.0

4.7
4.8
4.7
4.9
©5.0
4.8
4.8
4.7
4.6
4.2
4.2
3.9

6.2
6.3
©6.3
5.9
5.6
5.3
5.3
5.2
5.1
5.0
5.1
4.8

88
©88
90
89
91
93
94
98
98
107
110
110

103.6
©103.6
104.0
106.7
108.7
110.5
111.5
112.9
111.6
113.4
114.9
115.8

54,695
55,003
55,162
55,411
55,502
55,565
55,657
55,673
55,767
55,802
55,874
55,881

61,899
62,179
62,253
62,247
62,663
62,752
62,620
63,021
63,039
63,007
62,870
63,240

5.8
5.5
5.5
5.6
5.5
5.5
5.4
5.7
5.6
5.4
5.8
5.5

3.8
3.3
3.6
3.8
3.5
3.7
3.5
3.6
3.5
3.5
3.6
3.5

4.7
4.5
4.4
3.9
3.8
4.0
4.2
4.4
4.4
4.5
4.6
4.7

114
115
115
112
114
109
110
108
107
107
107
e!07

115.0
116.4
117.5
118.0
118.2
118.1
119.0
119.0
119.7
119.1
119.8
119.4

55,900
56,044
56,187
56,368
56,511
56,601
56,763
56,768
56,868
57,070
57,101
57,291

63,090
63,227
63,478
63,770
63,690
63,843
64,092
64,069
64,167
64,128
64,319
64,315

5.7
5.9
5.7
5.7
5.9
5.7
5.6
5.5
5.5
5.6
5.9
5.5

3.7
3.7
3.5
3.3
3.3
3.2
3.2
3.1
3.0
2.9
3.4
3.3

4.8
4.6
4.4
4.2
4.2
4.1
4.1
4.1
4.0
4.0
4.1
4.3

e!07
e!09.
e!08
109
105
104
109
105
107
111
112
118

119.8
120.6
121.9
122.7
124.4
125.6
125.6
125.4
125.7
126.1
126.1
127.0

57,334
57,684
57,754
57,827
57,931
58,104
58,256
58,301
58,458
58,372
:£jp58,790

64,631
65,035
65,207
65,811
65,889
65,549
65,706
65,678
65,534
65,580
©66,029

5.6
5.4
5.4
5.4
5.1
5.3
04.9
5.1
5.2
5.2
5.0

3.2
3.0
2.9
2.9
2.6
2.8
2.7
2.6
2.9
2.8
0'2.5

4.3
4.0
3.8
3.8
3.6
3.6
3.6
3.5
3.4
3.4
E3.4
5
3.4

116
117
118
120
118
121
124
123
126
127
0P135

( Thous . )
Revised4

(1957-59=100;

©434 .*2
444 .*4

450.'6
462 .'5

469 .'i
475 !l
478 ! 3
483 lo

1963

April
Jvfey

June
July
August
Sppt.PTriher, r rT , ,

November

485.4
487.9
494^8
502 .'6

1964
March
April
May
July
August
November

127.7
128.2
129.0
130.5
131.3
131.6
132.9
133.8
134.0
131.7
Ejpl34.9

Beginning with April 1962, the 1960 Census is used as the benchmark for computing this series.
the 1950 Census is used as the benchmark.
2
CD = December 1960.
3
Data exclude Puerto Rico which is included in figures published by source agency.
4
See "New Features and Changes for This Issue," page ii.
Week ended December 5.




508 ! 6

513! 5

101519 ".6

Prior to April 1962,

27

Basic Data
Table 2.-BASIC DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES: JANUARY 1961 TO PRESENT-Continued

eries are seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated
by an asterisk (*). Low values preceding current highs are indicated by CD and current highs, by CH] ; the reverse is
true for inverse series (series 3, 4, 5, 14, 15, 40, 43, and 45).
Series numbers are for identification only and do
not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. The "r" indicates
revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.

NBER Roughly Coincident Indicators — Continued
Year and
month

49. Gross
national
product in
current dollars

(Ann . rate ,
bil. dol.)

52. Personal
57. Final
51. Bank
sales (series debits outside incomex
NYC, 343
49 minus
centers 1
series 21)

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

55. Wholesale
53. Labor in- 54- Sales of
come in mining, retail stores prices except
farm products
manufacturing,
and foods
and construction^
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

(Mil. dol.)

(1957-59=100)

19.61
©501 '.I

arch
pril
ay.

505 '.3

513 .*9

511.8

522 J4

518 !?

536!<?

531.4

545 .'5

538.7

m.\

547! 3

559.'6

554.0

566! 6

561.2

571 ! 8

568 ! 2

577 \\

573.7

587.2

583! 6

59916

592! 6

608.8

606.4

618 1 6

614 '.9

E628.4

[K1625.7

lly

scember
1962
ebruary
pril
Line

ctober
Dvember
eceniber. ......
1963

pril
me
jly
IffUSt

ctober

1964
anuary

arch
pril
ily

IgUSt

3"tober

1

© = December 1960.
Week ended December 15.

2




1,786.2
1,755.0
1,785.1
1,781.8
1,829.3
1,824.0
1,839.9
1,832.7
1,848.2
1,904.6
1,903.8
1,916.9

405.0
406.2
410.3
411.6
413.6
416.1
420.0
420.0
421.8
425.4
429.0
431.5

104.2
104.0
104.5
105.4
106.4
107.7
108.0
108.8
108.8
110.6
111.7
112.1

17,942
17,965
17,971
©17,811
18,003
18,098
18,234
18,373
18,371
18,494
18,775
18,879

2,009.7
1,916.6
1,985.3
2,044.4
2,015.0
2,000.2
2,054.8
2,017.0
1,988.5
2,080.9
2,090.5
2,066.9

431.6
434.9
437.6
440.2
441.0
441.7
443.3
444.1
446.2
447.7
449.5
452.0

112.0
113.0
114.2
115.9
115.4
115.4
116.3
116.1
117.1
116.8
116.6
117.0

18,990
19,139
19,320
19,389
19,585
19,311
19,658
19,671
19,844
19,837
20,112
20,253

100.8
100.7
100.7
100.7
100.9
100.8
100.9
100.8
100.9
100.9
100.8
100.7

2,148.0
2,085.5
2,095.6
2,198.1
2,150.7
2,105.4
2,276.8
2,189.7
2,275.0
2,316.3
2,246.9
2,320.5

454.9
454.1
456.5
457.6
460.2
462.7
464.0
466.1
468.9
472.7
473.8
477.1

117.4
117.4
118.3
118.8
120.1
120.8
120.7
120.7
122.1
122.5
122.2
123.1

20,387
20,374
20,350
20,276
20,200
20,486
20,719
20,666
20,426
20,716
20,558
21,019

100.5
100.5
100.5
©100.4
100.5
100.8
100.9
100.9
100.8
100.9
100.9
101.0

2,354.9
2,239.6
2,322.3
2,451.1
r2,312.8
r2,328.7
r2,430.5
r2,372.6
2,424.8
r2, 454.0
[H]p2,470.2

479.4
480.5
482.9
486.6
487.8
489.3
491.4
494.9
497.9
r498.7
G3 P 502.0

122.7
124.2
124.6
125.9
125.8
126.4
126.9
127.9
129.2
r!27.7
(EP130.2

21,000
21,533
21,223
21,392
21,777
21,773
21,935
[H] 22, 266
r 22, 2 54
r21,362
p21,265

101.1
101.1
101.0
101.1
101.1
101.0
101.2
101.2
101.2
101.4
EplOl.6
2
101.5

101.0
101.1
101.1
100.9
100.9
100.7
100.7
100.8
100.8
100.7
100.8
100.9

28

Basic Data
Table 2.-BASIC DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES: JANUARY 1961 TO PRESENT-Continued

Series are seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicate
by an asterisk (*). Low values preceding current highs are indicated by (L) and current highs, by IH! • the reverse :
true for inverse series (series 3, 4, 5, 14, 15, 40, 43, and 45).
Series numbers are for identification only and c
not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. The "r" indicate
revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.

NBER Lagging Indicators
Year and
month

61. Business
expenditures,
new plant and
equipment,
total x
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

62. Labor cost
per unit of
output, manufacturing

68. Labor cost 64. Book value
per dollar of of mfrs. ' inreal corporate ventories
GNP

(1957-59=100)

(1957-59=100)

(Bil. dol.)

65. Book value 66. Consumer
of mfrs . ' in- installment
debt
ventories of
finished goods

(Bil. dol.)

(Mil. dol.)

67. Bank rate
on short-tem
business
loans, 19
cities*

(Percent)

1961
January. .......
33 '.85

Iteirch
April
May

©33.50

July
34 .*70

September
October
35.40
December

101.8
102.4
102.3
100.5
100.3
99.5
99.1
98.5
99.1
98.9
99.0
©98.4

104.9
103.4
103 .*8

©102.3

53.7
53.7
53.5
53.4
53.4
©53.4
53.6
53.9
53.9
54.3
54.7
55.1

18.4
18.4
18.3
18.4
18.3
18.4
©18.3
18.5
18.5
18.6
18.7
18.8

42,109
42,035
42,041
©41,867
41,870
41,895
41,903
41,987
42,052
42,221
42,442
42,774

4*97

4.97
4.99
©4*96

1962
35.70
March.
April
May
June
July

36*95
38!35

November
December

37 '.95

99.4
99.0
98.8
99.8
99.8
0100.4
100.1
100.2
99.6
100.1
99.5
100.1

102.9
103*4
103.' 5
103.2

55.4
55.7
56.0
56.1
56.4
56.3
56.9
57.0
57.3
57.4
57.6
57.8

19.0
19.1
19.1
19.2
19.3
19.4
19.5
19.5
19.7
19.7
19.8
19.8

42,960
43,220
43,532
44,017
44,437
44,826
45,200
45,588
45,838
46,206
46,689
47,174

57.9
58.0
58.1
58.3
58.5
58.7
58.9
58.9
59.1
59.3
59.8
60.1

19.9
20.0
20.0
20.0
20.1
20.3
20.3
20.4
20.6
20.6
21.0
21.2

47,659
48,154
48,631
49,152
49,593
50,079
50,588
51,069
51,410
51,941
52,324
52,784

60.0
60.1
60.3
60.5
60.5
60.4
60.5
60.8
r6l.O
•Q3p6l.6
(NA)

21.2
21.4
21.4
21.6
21.6
21.5
21.6
21.6
21.6
rap21.8
(NA)

53,212
53,791
54,315
54,727
55,220
55,590
56,073
56,508
57,021
E 57, 431
(NA)

4*98
5 '.01

4.99
05.02

1963
36.95
March
April
May

38*05

July
40.00
September
October
41.20
December

99.7
99.6
99.0
98.9
98.8
98.3
98.8
99.5
99.3
98.9
99.1
98.6

104.2
104.8
104.7
104.6

5.00

5*oi
5*6i
5 '.66

1964
January
February

42.55

April
May

43.50

July
August

^45.' 65

October
a46.?6

97.9
97.8
98.3
97.5
97.5
98.1
97.7
97.5
r98.4
r98.7
P98.2

104.2
r!04.8
[njrl05.2

•"-Anticipated figures for the 1st and 2nd quarters, 1965, are 47.90 and 48.70, respectively.




4.9C
4'9<
4'.9^

29

Basic Data
Table 2.-BASIC DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES: JANUARY 1961 TO PRESENT-Continued

leries are seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated
by an asterisk (*). Low values preceding current highs are indicated by © and current highs, by (nTI; the reverse is
true for inverse series (series 3, 4, 5, 14, 15? 40, 43, and 45)•
Series numbers are for identification only and do
not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. The "r" indicates
revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.

Other U.S. series with business cycle significance
Year and
month

82. Federal
83. Federal
cash payments cash reto public
ceipts from
public

84. Federal
cash surplus
(+), or
deficit (-)

95. Surplus
(+), or
deficit (-),
Fed. income
and product
account

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

90. Defense
Department
obligations,
procurement

91. Defense
Department
obligations,
total

92. Military
prime contract awards
to U.S. business firms

99. New
orders,
defense
products

(Mil. dol.)

(Mil. dol.)

(Mil. dol.)

(Bil. dol.)

1961

pril
lay
une
ugust. ........
ictober

1962
anuary
larch
pril
[ay

ictober
bvember

95.5
95.4
107.4
100.6
110.9
106.5
97.7
112.7
104.1
109.8
106.5
104.3

94.2
94.1
92.6
97.0
99.8
97.7
91.2
101.0
99.2
99.5
101.3
101.7

-1.3
-1.3
-14.8
-3.6
-11.1
-8.8
-6.5
-11.7
-4.9
-10.3
-5.2
-2.6

115.1
108.8
107.4
110.1
106.8
108.9
116.3
111.6
109.9
118.6
114.7
115.2

101.7
101.3
98.1
107.8
109.9
104.4
111.2
110.1
107.6
107.8
109.0
109.0

-13.4
-7.5
-9.3
-2.3
+3.1
-4.5
-5.1
-1.5
-2.3
-10.8
-5.7
-6.2

115.3
109.2
114.5
117.2
115.8
110.2
125.7
118.0
121.9
122.3
114.2
122.7

108.6
110.6
108.9
110.2
112.2
111.9
114.9
114.7
113.1
115.1
113.3
118.5

-6.7
+1.4
-5.6
-7.0
-3.6
+1.7
-10.8
-3.3
-8.8
-7.2
-0.9
-4.2

129.6
117.2
120.3
123.2
110.3
r!22.5
126.9
117.1
124.1
119.3
108.2

114.8
123.4
115.3
126.6
105.1
rl!5.2
116.4
110.0
114.1
113.1
114.3

-14.8
+6.2
-5.0
+3.4
-5.2
r-7.3
-10.5
-7.1
-10.0
-6.2
+6.1

-6!6
-i'.7

-l.lr

-2.6

-4.*4
-l'.6
-2\9
-4^5

1,277
1,555
1,230
1,047
1,220
1,390
1,181
2,278
1,933
1,354
1,286
1,773

3,641
4,065
3,537
3,381
3,727
3,893
3,784
5,344
4,874
4,296
4,121
4,653

1,944
2,153
1,757
1,910
1,530
1,993
2,087
2,232
2,158
2,651
2,379
2,281

1.45
2.00
1.48
1.85
1.82
1.73
2.11
1.96
1.92
1.97
1.86
1.82

1,718
1,319
1,435
1,885
1,142
1,246
1,731
1,240
1,044
1,684
1,818
1,158

4,434
4,181
4,230
4,486
4,059
4,024
4,864
4,300
3,928
4,553
4,952
3,974

3,073
2,135
2,225
2,062
1,887
1,930
2,017
2,149
2,111
2,983
2,734
1,984

1.99
2.05
2.11
2.24
2.24
2.08
2.07
1.94
1.88
2.09
1.70
2.53

1,565
1,325
1,258
1,304
1,530
1,298
1,255
1,512
1,221
2,038
1,125
1,182

4,642
4,253.
3,905
4,108
4,601
4,378
4,834
4,497
4,215
5,176
4,138
4,090

2,343
2,571
2,168
1,973
2,250
2,125
2,506
2,704
2,688
2,224
1,566
2,041

2.89
2.09
2.42
1.97
2.40
1.90
2.40
2.36
2.47
1.92
1.97
1.48

1,071
2,067
1,030
1,516
2,192
1,030
1,691
716
1,165
908
(NA)

4,370
5,484
3,731
4,592
4,941
4,239
5,274
4,147
4,472
3,853
(NA)

1963
larch
nrii
ky

ugust

lecember

-4^8
-1.0

-6!?
+6!6

1964
'ebruary
pril
lay
uly
ugust

ictober
•ecember




-2.4
-7.8
-5.2

2,337
2,854
1,603
2,529
2,465
1,663
3,016
1,915
2,291
1,879
(NA)

2.67
2.40
2.18
2.37
2.48
2.34
3.29
1.86
rl.98
r2.38
pl.85

30

Basic Data
Table 2.-BASIC DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES: JANUARY 1961 TO PRESENT-Continued

Series are seasonally adjusted except those that appear .to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated
by an asterisk (*). Low values preceding current highs are indicated "by (D and current highs, "by [H] ; the reverse is
true for inverse series (series 3, 4, 5, 14, 15, 40, 43, and 45).
Series numbers are for identification only and dc
not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. The "r" indicates
revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.

Other U.S. series with business cycle significance —-Continued
Year and
month

93. Free
reserves*

(Mil. dol.)
1961

March
April
May
June
July
August. ........
September
November

85. Change in
total U.S.
money supply

98. Change in
money supply
and time
deposits

(Annual rate,
percent)1
Revi sed

(Annual rate,
percent)
Revised1

+696
+517
+486
+551
+453
+549
+530
+537
+547
+442
+517
+419

+0.84
+3.36
+3.36
+2.52
+3.36
+2.52
0.00
+2.52
+ 5.04
+3.36
+6.60
+3.36

+4.44
+9.48
+5.52
+ 5.52
+7.68
+6.60
+ 5.40
+6.00
+6.96
+6.36
+8.52
+ 5.28

+555
+434
+382
+441
+440
+391
+440
+439
+375
+419
+473
+268

0.00
+1.68
+2.52
+3.24
-2.. 40
+0.84
-0.84
-0.84
-1.68
+4.08
+ 5.76
+4.92

+6.84
+10.92
+10.92
+7.68
+1.56
+6.12
+4.56
+4.08
+4.56
+8.52
+10.44
+11.40

+375
+301
+269
+313
+247
+138
+161
+133
+91
+94
+33
+209

+3.24
+3.24
+4.08
+2.40
+3.24
+4.80
+6.36
+1.56
+3.12
+5.52
+9.48
-2.40

+8.28
+8.28
+9.12
+ 5.76
+5.76
+7.56
+8.52
+7.92
+6.48
+8.76
+13.80
+4.08

+171
+91
+98
+162
+78
+118
+132
+79
+90
+103
P-34

+4.68
0.00
+3.12
+2.28
0.00
+8.52
+8.52
+3.84
+6.12
+4.56
A >f3.84

+9.96
+5.40
+4.44
+4.44
+4.44
+9.72
+8.76
+7.44
+8.16
+8.64
p+10.68

110. Total
private
borrowing

111. Corporate
gross savings

112. Change,
business
loans

(Annual rate,
(Annual rate,
(Annual rate,
million dollars) million dollars) billion dollars)
30,856

30,228

36,664

33,276

40,928

33,084

41,464

35,528

42,712

36,388

53,134

37,728

47,644

38,924

50,608

40,524

46,404

39,584

55,320

39,048

57,324

40,012

61,072

38,920

46,280

43,252

63,876

44,164

55,324

44,676

+0.54
-0.77
+0.92
-0.37
-0.31
-1.50
+2.18
+1.00
+0.56
+0.01
-0.01
+1.72

1962

March
April
Mav
July

August
October

1963
January
April
ffey

June
July
August
5?Apt,Aj]riher . . rT . .
October
November
1964
January

March
April
May
July
August
September
October

•"•See "New Features and Changes for This Issue," page ii.




+2.90
+1.51
+2.23
+2.09
+2.09
+2.77
+2.66
+3.85
+2.82
+2.82
+2.28
+0.95
+2.26
+1.01
+1.01
+1.57
+3.18
+1.74
+1.97
+2.03
+2.94
+4.67
+6.10
+5.34
+2.26
+3.05
+0.05
+1.81
+5.60
+3.88
+3.84
+4.75
+5.24
+1.91
+1.26

31

Basic Data
Table 2.-BASIC DATA FOR BUSIKESS CYCLE SERIES: JANUARY 1961 TO PRESENT-Continued

5eries are seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated
by an asterisk (*). Low values preceding current highs are indicated by © and current highs, by fTD ; the reverse is
true for inverse series (series 3, 4, 5, 14, 15, 40, 43, and 45). Series numbers are for identification only and do
not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. The "r" indicates
revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
Other U.S. series with business cycle significance—Continued
Year and
month

113. Change,
consumer
installment
debt
(Annual rate,
billion dollars)

114. Treasury
bill rate*

( Percent )

115. Treasury
bond yields*

( Percent )

116. Corporate
bond yields*

(Percent)

117. Municipal
bond yields*

(Percent)

118. Mortgage
yields*

(Percent)

1961

'anuary
larch.
Lpril

fay

'uly

leptember
)ecember.
1962
''ebruary
larch
Lpril
fay
Tune

July

)ecember.
1963
Tanuary

larch.
^pril
fey
July
lugust
November
)ecember

-0.36
-0.89
+0.07
-2.09
+0.04
+0.30
+0.10
+1.01
+0.78
+2.03
+2.65
+3.98

2.30
2.41
2.42
2.33
2.29
2.36
2.27
2.40
2.30
2.35
2.46
2.62

3.89
3.81
3.78
3.80
3.73
3.88
3.90
4.00
4.02
3.98
3.98
4.06

4.63
4.43
4.36
4.56
4.61
4.73
4.74
4.75
4.69
4.45
4.48
4.56

3.40
3.31
3.45
3.50
3.43
3.52
3.52
3.52
3.53
3.42
3,41
3.47

6.00
5.89
5.82
5.77
5.74
5.72
5.68
5.68
5.69
5.70
5.70
5.69

+2.23
+3.12
+3.74
+5.82
+5.04
+4.67
+4.49
+4.66
+3.00
+4.42
+5.80
+5.82

2.75
2.75
2.72
2.74
2.69
2.72
2.94
2.84
2.79
2.75
2.80
2.86

4.08
4.09
4.01
3.89
3.88
3.90
4.02
3.98
3.94
3.89
3.87
3.87

4.55
4.54
4.42
4.31
4.26
4.30
4.41
4.39
4.28
4.27
4.23
4.28

3.34
3.21
3.14
3.06
3.11
3.26
3.28
3.23
3.11
3.02
3.04
3.07

5.69
5.68
5.65
5.64
5.60
5.59
5.58
5.57
5.56
5.55
5.54
5.53

+5.82
+5.94
+5.72
+6.25
+5.29
+5.83
+6.11
+5.77
+4.09
+6.37
+4.60
+5.52

2.91
2.92
2.90
2.91
2.92
3.00
3.14
3.32
3.38
3.45
3.52
3.52

3.89
3.92
3.93
3.97
3.97
4.00
4.01
3.99
4.04
4.07
4,11
4.H

4.22
4.25
4.26
4.35
4.35
4.32
4.34
4.33
4.40
4.36
4.42
4.49

3.10
3.15
3.05
3.10
3.11
3.21
3.22
3. .13
3.20
3.20
3.30
3.27

5.52
5.48
5.47
5.46
5.45
5.45
5.45
5.45
5.45
5.45
5.45
5.45

+5.14
+6.95
+6.29
+4.94
+5.92
+4.44
+5.80
+5.22
+6.16
+4.92
(NA)

3.53
3.53
3.55
3.48
3.48
3.48
3.48
3.51
3.53
3.58
3.62

4.15
4.14
4.18
4.20
4.16
4.13
4.13
4.14
4.16
4.16
4.12

4.49
4.38
4.45
4.49
4.48
4.49
4.43
4.43
4.49
4.49
4.47

3.22
3.14
3.28
3.28
3.20
3.20
3.18
3.19
3.23
3.25
3.18

5.45
5.45
5.45
5.45
5.45
5.45
5.46
5.46
5.46
5.45
5.45

1964

•larch
\pril
fey

Fuly
iuffust
September
October




32

Basic Data
Table 2.-BASIC DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES: JANUARY 1961 TO PRESENT-Continued

Series are seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicatec
by an asterisk (*) . Low values preceding current highs are indicated by © and current highs, by fii1; the reverse i;
true for inverse series (series 3, 4, 5, 14, 15, 40, 43, and 45).
Series numbers are for identification only and d<
not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. The "r" indicate:
revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
Other U.S. series with business cycle significance — Continued

Year and
month

86. Exports
excluding
military aid
shipments,
total

87. General
imports,
total

88. Merchandise trade
balance
(series 86
minus
series 87)

89. Excess, 81. Consumer
receipts (+) prices
or payments
(-) in U.S.
balance of
payments

(Mil. dol.)

(Mil. dol.)

(Mil. dol.)

(Mil. dol.)

94. Construction
contracts,
total
value

96. Manufacturers ' unfilled orders, durable goods
industries

97. Backlog
of capital
appropriations,
manufacturing

(Bil. dol.)

(1957-59=
100)

(1957-59=
100)

(Bil. dol.)

103.9
104.0
104.0
103.9
103.9
104.1
104.4
104.4
104.5
104.5
104.5
104.5

108
95
104
103
102
111
110
116
103
114
116
119

43.01
42.94
42.52
42.88
42.95
43.06
43.43
43.85
43.86
44.11
44.52
45.17

104.7
104.9
105.1
105.3
105.4
105.4
105.3
105.5
105.9
105.8
105.8
105.9

115
119
131
121
117
120
117
118
113
117
123
138

45.80
46.42
45.75
45.41
44.95
44.58
44.33
43.73
43.37
43.58
43.18
44.09

106.1
106.1
106.2
106.3
106.4
106.7
106.9
107.1
106.9
107.0
107.2
107.7

121
130
118
125
144
135
126
132
128
146
144
148

45.06
45.74
46.68
47.53
47.86
47.28
46.74
46.70
47.07
47.17
47.08
46.68

107.8
107.6
107.7
107.9
108.0
108.1
108.1
108.2
108.2
108.3
(NA)

147
143
140
138
138
138
140
121
131
136
(NA)

47.07
47.64
47.80
48.84
49.22
50.04
51.30
51.37
r52.14
r53.H
P53.37

1961
1,622.7
1,711.6
1,750.7
1,661.5
1,585.1
1,581.9
1,688.5
1,688.9
1.678.4
1,779.8
1,733.1
1,724.8

1,161.4
1,149.8
1,162.9
1,152.0
1,152.9
1,173.8
1,379.3
1,253.6
1,262.0
1,300.1
1,308.5
1,314.5

+461.3
+561.8
+587.8
+509.5
+432.2
+408.1
+309.2
+435.3
+416.4
+479.7
+424.6
+410.3

1,668.3
1,809.3
1,672.0
1,795.4
1,761.7
1,835.6
1,748.3
1,702.5
1,907.9
1,542.8
1,724.6
1,838.7

1,326.5
1,319.8
1,341.7
1,365.0
1,404.1
1,350.7
1,346.6
1,345.9
1,471.4
1,312.1
1,424.9
1,376.5

+341.8
+489.5
+330.3
+430.4
+357.6
+484.9
+401.7
+356.6
+436.5
+230.7
+299.7
+462.2

984.8
2,117.5
March. .........
1,960.4
1,912.7
April
1,892.6
my
1,784.7
1,823.0
July
1,894.6
Spptpmher . . r T . t 1,979.6
October
1,946.4
1,944.6
2,049.4

1,091.6
1,497.4
1,486.7
1,417.2
1,420.2
1,420.5
1,457.5
1,508.3
1,450.4
1,458.8
1,471.9
1,480.0

-106.8
+620.1
+473.7
+495.5
+472.4
+364.2
+365.5
+386.3
+529.2
+487.6
+472.7
+569.4

1,421,8
1,445.3
1,522.9
1,542.1
1,548.1
1,505.5
1,589.6
1,592.2
1,557.5
1,550.7
(NA)

+615.5
+583.4
+554.6
+503.9
+504.0
+498.8
+521.8
+492.7
+713.7
+583.6
(NA)

February. ......
April
May
June
July
August .........
October
November

-486
H47

-700
-1,231

7*. 51

7.39
7!<S6
7!63

1962

March
April
May
July
August
November

-748
-440
-334
-681

7.82
7.77
7.99
8.48

1963
-1,062
-1,295
-153
-134

8.46
9.07
10."l5

11.02

1964
March
April
May
June
July
September
October

1

2,037.3
2,028.7
2,077.5
2,046.0
2,052.1
2,004.3
2,111.4
2,084.9
2,271.2
2,134.3
(NA)

r-94
r-730
r-562

Includes $650 million in special debt payments to the United States.




11.78

13.14
14.95

Basic Data

33

Table 2.-BASIC DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES: JANUARY 1961 TO PRESENT-Continued
Jeries are seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated
by an asterisk (*). Low values preceding current highs are indicated by (D and current highs, by \K\ ; the reverse is
true for inverse series (series 3, 4? 5, 14 > 15? 40, 43, and 45)•
Series numbers are for identification only and do
not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. The "r" indicates
revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.

International comparisons of industrial production
Year and
month

47. United
States,
industrial
production

(1957-59=
100)

1961
Fanuary.
4arch
Vpril.
fey

July
September

December

123. Canada, 122. United
Kingdom,
industrial
production
industrial
production

(1957-59=
100)

121. OECD,1
European
countries,
industrial
production

125. West
Germany,
industrial
production

126. France, 127. Italy,
industrial
industrial
production
production

(1957-59=
100)

(1957-59=
100)

(1957-59=
100)

(1957-59=
100)

(1957-59=
100)

128. Japan,
industrial
production

(1957-59=
100)

104
104
104
107
109
110
112
113
112
113
115
116

104
105
105
107
107
109
109
111
112
112
114
114

109
110
110
111
110
113
113
111
110
109
109
109

117
119
119
120
119
120
120
119
120
121
122
123

124
125
126
126
124
121
122
121
124
123
124
128

115
116
116
116
117
117
118
118
119
119
119
122

130
134
134
134
136
136
138
137
140
145
149
148

155
154
158
159
162
165
169
172
172
175
176
177

115
116
118
118
118
118
119
119
120
119
120
119

113
115
116
116
117
118
118
119
119
119
120
120

108
110
111
110
113
114
113
114
115
110
113
110

122
124
123
124
125
124
125
126
127
127
128
127

126
129
125
128
129
130
130
131
132
132
133
132

122
123
124
123
124
123
125
125
126
128
128
126

149
151
149
151
153
147
151
149
150
153
158
160

182
178
181
181
182
180
179
180
181
179
179
178

120
121
122
123
124
126
126
125
126
126
126
127

120
121
122
122
123
123
121
123
125
126
128
131

110
111
113
114
115
115
116
118
117
120
121
121

127
126
127
130
131
132
132
132
134
135
136
136

129
128
132
133
133
139
134
136
136
138
140
139

127
125
116
129
133
134
129
129
136
137
136
138

158
155
161
165
165
166
163
166
171
171
173
170

179
184
184
191
190
191
203
202
207
211
214
217

128
128
129
130
131
132
133
134
134
132
P135

133
134
133
135
132
133
133
135
P135
(NA)

123
123
123
124
123
123
122
123
122
(NA)

139
139
140
139
141
r!39
138
r!37
p!39
(NA)

142
144
145
140
150
143
147
r!45
142
p!49
(NA)

140
139
139
141
140
141
132
132
141
(NA)

r!72
169
173
169
166
162
164
156
(NA)

217
226
223
224
228
235
235
233
r240
p241
(NA)

1962

vjarch
kpril
vtav
July

October

1963
January
March

April
ffey

July
August
Sppt^mher ,,,..,
October
November
December

1964
January
February. ......
March
April

May
July
August

October
December

^•Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development.




Analytical Measures

34

Table 3.-DISTRIBUTION OF HIGHS IN BUSINESS CYCLE INDICATORS DURING RECENT MONTHS COMPARED WITH PERIODS AROUND
PREVIOUS BUSINESS CYCLE PEAKS
Number of series that reached a high before benchmark datesNumber of months before
benchmark date that
high was reached

Business cycle peak

Nov.
1948

July
1953

July
1957

3d month before business cycle peak

Apr.
1953

Aug.
1948

May
1960

Apr.
1957

Feb.
1960

NBER LEADING INDICATORS

12
1

7
1
3
1

4
1

22

1

*2
2

14
2
1
3
2
1

3
4

11
1

1
4
1

Percent of series high on benchmark date.

2

19
16

23
0

23
0

4
19
21

2

*18

0

12

1
1

]

1

]

23
0

]
2j
<>

1

1

2
2
3
1

3

!18
0

20

NBER ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS

3

1

2

1
1

1
3

1

1
2

1
4
1
2
1
11
9

Percent of series high on benchmark date.
Number of months before
benchmark date that
high was- reached

2
3
3
11
27

2

5

2
3

"4
4

11
45

11
27

11
36

6th month before business cycle peak

May
1948

Nov.
1959

Jan.
1957

Jan.
1953

1

1

2
3
3
11
27

3
6
11
55

2
3

1
4
4
11
36

Current expansion
Sept.
1964

Aug.
1964

Nov.
1964

Oct.
1964

NBER LEADING INDICATORS
2
1
2
1
4
1
2
3
3

17
1
1
1

19
16

6
1
4
2
CM CN2 H
tO vO

rH

Percent of series high on benchmark date.

2

4
4
4
2
4

9
"l

7
1
'*2

2
1

8
2
1

1

1

1
2
2

"4
6

2
4
6

2
4
4
2

23
4

23
9

23
26

23
26

23
9

1
1

4
1
1
2
2
2
4
16
25

NBER ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
1

1
5 months

4
2

..•

4

Percent of series high on benchmark date.

1
5

2
3
6

11
45

11
55

2
**5
3

2
3

11
27

11
27

1
1
2
7
11
64

1
1
1
1
7
11
64

1
1
1
3
5
11
45

1
1
"9
11
82

All quarterly series, 1 leading monthly series (series 15), and 1 roughly coincident series (series 40) are omitted
from the distribution.
1
5 series were not available.
2
2 series were not available and 2. series were omitted because their peaks were reached during the Korean War and
such peaks were disregarded in this distribution.




35

Analytical Measures
DIFFUSION INDEXES: 1948 TO PRESENT
NBER Leading I n d i c a t o r s
(Nov.)
P

(Oct.)
T

(July) (Apr.)

P

Dl. Avg. workweek, prod, wkrs., mfg.--21 Indus

T

(May) (F«fc.)
P
T
9-mo. interval ——
1-mo. interval

D6. New orders, dur. goods indus.--36 indus

11. Newly approved capital appropriations
17 indus. ,NICR
nterval,—^.1-Q interval).

D34. Profits, FNCB of NY, percent reporting !
higher profits--700 cos. (1-Q interval) :

D19. Stock prices, 500 common stocks- 80 indus

D23. Industrial materials prices—I3 indus. mtls.

A,

D5. Initial claims, State unempl. insur.—47 areas
(inverted.)

(8

1949 1950 1951 1952 1953 1954 1955 1956 1957 1958 1959 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964

'How to Reod Charts 1, 2, and 3," page 5.




Analytical Measures

36

DIFFUSION INDEXES:

1948

TO P R E S E N T - - C o n .

NBER R o u g h l y C o i n c i d e n t I n d i c a t o r s
(Nov.)
P

(Oct.)
T

(July)
P

(Aug.)
T

P

(May) (Feb.)
P
T

T

Percei

D41. Employees in nonagr. establishments-id mdus.
(6-mo. interval
1-mo. interval
)

^100

50

0

D47. Industrial production--24 indus.
(6-mo. interval > 1-mo. interval

))

100

50

0

D58. Wholesale prices, mfrd. goods--23 indus.
(6-mo. interval •
1-mo, interval
)

100

50

0

D54. Sales of retail stores-24 types of stores
(9-mo. interval——1-mo. interval
)

-100
-50

-0

1948

1949

1950

1951

1952

1953

See 'How to Read Charts 1, 2, and 3," page 5.




1954

1955

1956

1957

1958

1959

1960

1961

1962

1963

1964

37

Analytical Measures
CHART 3 b DIFFUSION INDEXES, ACTUAL AND ANTICIPATED: 1948 TO PRESENT

(Nov.)
P

(Oct.)
T

(July)
P

(July) (Apr.)
P
T

(Aufl.)
T

(May) (Feb.)
P
T

D35. Net sales, all mfrs.--800 cos.
(percent—4-Q interval)

-1 o
D36, New orders, dur. goods mfrs.~400 cos.
(percent-4-Q interval)

D48. Carloadings--19 mfrd. commodity groups
(percent-4-Q interval)

100
\

50

0
D48. Change in total carloadings
(millions of cars-4-Q interval)

+.5

D61. New plant and equipment expend.—17-22 Indus
(percent-1-Q interval)

*8 1949 1950 1951 1952 1953 1954 1955 1956 1957 1958 1959 I960 1961 1962 1963
a are centered within intervals. Latest data are as foljows:
Series number and
date of survey

D35, D36 (Oct. 1964)
D48 (Sept. 1964)
D61 (Nov. 1964)

"How to Read Charts 1, 2, and 3," poge 5.




Latest interval shown
Actual

Anticipated

3rd Q 1963 - 3rd Q 1964 IstQ 1964- 1st Q 1965
4th Q 1962- 4th Q 1963 4th Q 1 963- 4th Q 1964
2 n d Q 1964- 3rd Q 1964 4th Q 1964 - 1st Q 1965

1964

38

Analytical Measures
Table 4.-DIFFUSION INDEXES FOR 11 MAJOR ECONOMIC ACTIVITIES: JANUARY 1961 TO PRESENT

Percent of series components rising. Numbers are centered within intervals: 1-month figures are placed on latest month;
6-month figures are placed on the 4th month and 9-month figures are placed on the 6th month of span; 4-quarter figures
are centered in the middle quarter; 3-quarter figures are placed on the 1st month of the 3d quarter; 1-quarter figures
are placed in the 1st month of the 2d quarter. Seasonally adjusted components are used except in indexes D19, which
requires no adjustment, and D34, which is adjusted only for the index. Table 6 identifies the components for most of
the indexes shown. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; and "NA", not available.

NBER Leading indexes

Year and
month

1961
February
March
April
May
Julv
October

Dl. Average workweek,
manufacturing
(21 industries)

D6. Value of manufacturers '
new orders, durable goods
industries (36 industries)

1-month
interval

9 -month
interval

Revised1

Revised1

1-month
interval

9 -month
interval

92.9
61.9
50.0
73.8
54.8
95.2
61.9
64.3
40.5
92.9
71.4
23.8

45.2
85.7
76.2
95.2
92.9
97.6
95.2
90.5
64.3
92.9
92.9
100.0

33.3
48.6
66.7
62.5
63.9
66.7
36.1
63.9
47.2
55.6
61.1
58.3

59.7
56.9
66.7
80.6
72.2
88.9
81.9
83.3
79.2
86.1
76.4
80.6

21.4
61.9
85.7
76.2
28.6
31.0
38.1
54.8
78.6
9.5
64.3
35.7

85.7
83.3
50.0
23.8
52.4
54.8
42.9
28.6
26.2
23.8
40.5
19.0

63.9
52.8
36.1
51.4
56.9
37.5
56.9
36.1
48.6
68.1
50.0
47.2

77.8
63.9
63.9
47.2
47.2
45.8
36.1
52.8
59.7
56.9
70.8
69.4

76.2
50.0
61.9
14.3
85.7
54.8
47.6
57.1
59.5
71.4
21.4
83.3

61.9
45.2
83.3
69.0
78.6
76.2
61.9
64.3
52.4
64.3
66.7
73.8

63.9
43.1
54.2
63.9
52.8
47.2
51.4
52.8
52.8
69.4
33.3
62.5

88.9
69.4
66.7
63.9
52.8
66.7
62.5
72.2
69.4
58.3
83.3
77.8

4.8
88.1
40.5
66.7
42.9
26.2
54.8
71.4
14.3
78.6
p66.7

85.7
50.0
52.4
73.8
33.3
88.1
P73.8

55.6
44.4
58.3
61.1
44.4
50.0
63.9
40.3
r54.2
r47.2
P47.2

76.4
83.3
80.6
75.0
72.2
r63.9
P63.9

Dll. Newly approved
capital appropriations,
NICB (17 industries)
3 -quarter
interval

1-quarter
interval

53

59

59

65

*76

71

47

65

65

41

*32

82

*82

*53

59

71

47

5:

59

5,'

59

6'

53

7:

47

7

r68

r7

1962

March
April
May
July
August

Deceniber.
1963

April
May
July

1964

March
April
May
July

December




"New Features and Changes for This Issue," page ii.

r59

Analytical Measures

39

Table 4.-DIFFUSION INDEXES FOR 11 MAJOR ECONOMIC ACTIVITIES: JANUARY 1961 TO PRESENT-Continued
'ercent of series components rising. Numbers are centered within intervals: 1-month figures are placed on latest month;
6-month figures are placed on the 4th month and 9-month figures are placed on the 6th month of span; 4-quarter figures
are centered in the middle quarter; 3-quarter figures are placed on the 1st month of the 3d quarter; 1-quarter figures
are placed in the 1st month of the 2d quarter. Seasonally adjusted components are used except in indexes D19, which
requires no adjustment, and D34, which is adjusted only for the index. Table 6 identifies the components for most of
the indexes shown. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; and "NA, not available.
NBER Leading indexes — Continued

Year and
month

D34. Profits, D19. Index of stock prices,
mfg., FNCB
500 common stocks
(around 700
(80 industries)1
corporations)
1-quarter
interval

D23. Index of industrial
materials prices
(13 industrial materials)

D5. Initial claims for
unemployment insurance,
State programs, week ended
nearest the 22d
(47 areas)

9 -month
interval

1-month
interval

42.3
76.9
84.6
73.1
53.8
46.2
53.8
46.2
61.5
38.5
15.4
61.5

61.5
53.8
61.5
53.8
61.5
53.8
53.8
53.8
53.8
46.2
61.5
30.8

59.6
17.0
78.7
44.7
53.2
66.0
46.8
55.3
51.1
80.9
74.5
27.7

59.6
53.2
64.9
85.1
72.3
89.4
100.0
95.7
87.2
97.9
91.5
80.9

17.5
6.2
7.5
3.1
3.7
2.5
1.2
3.7
18.7
67.5
93.7
95.0

76.9
38.5
38.5
15.4
42.3
26.9
23.1
34.6
61.5
53.8
84.6
61.5

30.8
30.8
30.8
30.8
23.1
23.1
30.8
38.5
46.2
61.5
53.8
57.7

42.6
83.0
38.3
51.1
42.6
19.1
66.0
55.3
42.6
39.4
69.1
40.4

83.0
57.4
51.1
34.0
48.9
44.7
40.4
25.5
25.5
42.6
79.8
59.6

97.5
78.7
43.7
91.2
85.0
51.9
29.4
75.0
76.9
44.9
44.9
68.4

95.0
95.0
98.7
95.0
89.1
84.6
78.2
79.5
77.6
69.2
71.2
84.4

53.8
53.8
50.0
38.5
50.0
61.5
53.8
53.8
53.8
76.9
69.2
53.8

61.5
69.2
61.5
53.8
53.8
61.5
61.5
61.5
61.5
53.8
57.7
76.9

23.4
85.1
31.9
44.7
48.9
70.2
42.6
48.9
44.7
61.7
31.9
34.0

38.3
68.1
74.5
57.4
63.8
87.2
48.9
34.0
85.1
59.6
57.4
74.5

74.7
65.2
78.5
75.6
52.6
35.3
89.7
41.0
76.3
73.1
59.6

83.1
78.2
86.5
85.9
84.6
84.6
81.8

61.5
57.7
38.5
61.5
38.5
50.0
65.4
61.5
53.8
76.9
61.5
2
38.5

61.5
69.2
61.5
69.2
69.2
84.6
84.6
2
76.9

85.1
12.8
66.0
75.5
51.1
51.1
59.6
57.4
55.3
r31.9
34.0

69.1
70.2
69.1
76.6
87.2
r70.2
55.3

1-month
interval

9 -month
interval

86.9
96.2
85.6
72.5
81.9
40.0
42.5
81.2
40.0
46.9
87.5
55.0

97.5
97.5
97.5
97.5
95.6
81.2
76.2
73.7
71.2
67.5
70.0
62.5

25.6
75.0
47.5
8.7
1.2
1.2
69.4
78.1
36.2
8.1
98.7
84.4

1-month
interval

9 -mo nth
interval

1961
47

'ebruary
pril

*60
*58

epteniber. .... *
*56

1962
54

arch
pril

47

aly

*48

crtober

*56

scember
1963
50

Dril

*59

lly

*56

jptember, .....
*55

»cember
1964
57

ibruary
)ril

Lly

LgUSt. ........

icember

'60
57

1
The diffusion index is based on 82 components, January 1961 to February 1963; on 80 components, March 1963 to Auast 1963; on 79 components, September 1963 to March 1964; and on 78 components thereafter. 18 components and 5 com:>sites, representing an additional 23 components, are shown in the direction-of-change table (table 6).
2
Average for December 15, 16, and 17.




Analytical Measures

40

Table 4.-DIFFUSION INDEXES FOR 11 MAJOR ECONOMIC ACTIVITIES: JANUARY 1961 TO PRESENT-Continued
Percent of series components rising. Numbers are centered within intervals: 1-month figures are placed on latest month;
6-month figures are placed on the 4th month and 9-month figures are placed on the 6th month of span; 4-quarter figures
are centered in the middle quarter; 3-quarter figures are placed on the 1st month of the 3d quarter; 1-quarter figures
are placed in the 1st month of the 2d quarter. Seasonally adjusted components are used except in indexes D19, which
requires no adjustment, and D34, which is adjusted only for the index. Table 6 identifies the components for most of
the indexes shown. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; and "NA", not available.
NBER Roughly Coincident indexes

Year and
month

1961

April
May
June
July
August
October
December

D41. Number of employees
in nonagricultural
establishments
(30 industries)
1-month
interval

6 -month
interval

Revised1

Revised1

D47. Index of industrial
production
(24 industries)

1-month
interval

6 -month
interval

D54. Sales of retail
stores (24 types
of stores)

D58. Index of wholesale
prices (23 manufacturing industries)

1-month
interval

1-month
interval

6 -month
interval

9 -month
interval

46.7
30.0
60.0
58.3
83.3
86.7
71.7
76.7
56.7
80.0
81.7
68.3

20.0
26.7
66.7
80.0
85.0
85.0
81.7
88.3
83.3
78.3
88.3
83.3

56.3
50.0
62.5
70.8
72.9
91.7
77.1
72.9
54.2
87.5
83.3
75.0

52.1
66.7
87.5
93.8
91.7
87.5
95.8
91.7
91.7
87.5
87.5
95.8

58.3
41.7
60.4
22.9
79.2
77.1
60.4
68.8
39.6
83.3
87.5
60.4

41.7
58.3
62.5
68.8
79.2
85.4
87.5
87.5
95.8
91.7
87.5
89.6

39.1
47.8
41.3
65.2
45.7
37.0
50.0
56.5
60.9
39.1
47.8
56.5

37.0
34.8
37.0
45.7
47.8
47.8
39.1
45.7
52.2
50.0
54.3
56.5

65.0
75.0
75.0
86.7
60.0
53.3
61.7
51.7
51.7
50.0
45.0
46.7

86.7
88.3
81.7
78.3
73.3
71.7
51.7
45.0
41.7
35.0
43.3
50.0

25.0
87.5
87.5
75.0
64.6
66.7
52.1
58.3
83.3
29.2
68.8
35.4

83.3
79.2
70.8
91.7
77.1
83.3
66.7
77.1
60.4
47.9
72.9
62.5

58.3
50.0
70.8
68.8
58.3
18.8
83.3
75.0
64.6
39.6
87.5
66.7

87.5
91.7
91.7
89.6
89.6
72.9
95.8
95.8
87.5
87.5
91.7
83.3

69.6
43.5
52.2
58.7
45.7
43.5
39.1
41.3
54.3
34.8
45.7
39.1

60.9
60.9
58.7
54.3
60.9
47.8
32.6
45.7
39.1
30.4
23.9
26.1

65.0
46.7
71.7
76.7
75.0
63.3
78.3
53.3
56.7
66.7
53.3
80.0

60.0
65.0
65.0
68.3
68.3
71.7
73.3
60.0
66.7
60.0
73.3
73.3

79.2
66.7
83.3
54.2
83.3
75.0
72.9
68.8
58.3
64.6
50.0
77.1

83.3
91.7
95.8
91.7
91.7
83.3
91.7
77.1
79.2
72.9
83.3
83.3

50.0
54.2
52.1
41.7
52.1
75.0
66.7
64.6
25.0
58.3
54.2
77.1

70.8
79.2
85.4
77.1
60.4
52.1
62.5
87.5
70.8
91.7
83.3
77.1

39.1
43.5
37.0
41.3
58.7
63.0
47.8
60.9
58.7
73.9
69.6
60.9

30.4
45.7
54.3
52.2
50.0
58.7
71.7
76.1
73.9
69.6
67.4
67.4

53.3
83.3
66.7
63.3
65.0
73.3
66.7
51.7
73.3
56.7
p86.7

75.0
75.0
80.0
83.3
73.3
75.0
76.7
P88.3

58.3
79.2
70.8
83.3
70.8
62.5
79.2
68.8
r45.8
r68.8
p68.8

91.7
95.8
85.4
91.7
87.5
r87.5
79.2
p68.8

43.8
70.8
52.1
52.1
66.7
66.7
45.8
52.1
r37.5
r68.8
P45.8

79.2
100.0
85.4
83.3
r83.3
r83.3
p60.4

58.7
63.0
45.7
63.0
43.5
45.7
65.2
67.4
60.9
58.7
p52.2

1962
January

April
NfaV

July

October

1963

March
April
May
June
July

October

1964
Jferch.
April
Mav
July

October

L

See "New Features and Changes for This Issue," page




ii.

73.9
67.4
60.9
50.0
60.9
63.0
63.0
P56.5

Analytical Measures

41

Table 5.-DIFFUSION INDEXES, ACTUAL AND ANTICIPATED, FOR 4 MANUFACTURING ACTIVITIES: JANUARY 1961 TO PRESENT
Percent of series components rising. Numbers are centered within intervals: /^-quarter figures are centered in the middle quarter; 1-quarter figures are placed in the 1st month of the 2d quarter, "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary;
and "NA", not available.

036. New orders, durable manufactures
(400 companies)
4-quarter
interval

D35. Net sales,
manuf a c tur e s
(800 companies)

Year and
month

4-quarter
interval
Actual

Anticipated

Actual

D6l. New plant and
equipment expenditures
(16 industries)

D48. Freight carloadings
(19 manufactured
commodity groups)
4-quarter
interval

Anticipated

Actual

Anticipated

1-quarter
interval

Change in
total (000)

Actual

Anticipated

28.1

37.5

46^9

53!l

56!2

62.5

59 .*4

6'i.6

65.6

62.5

68 .*8

68!8

65 !6

65^6

46 '.9

6B\S

40.6

50.0

65 '.6

75.0

75.0

71.9

71.9

75.0

71.9

50.0

62! 5

50.*0

84^4

75.0

1961
72

82

72

78

36.8

89*.5

-28

April
May
June

*74

*83

*73

*78

68 !i

73.7

+79

August

82

*SS

82

*86

73 .*7

89^5

+125

'si

*86

*78

82

63^2

89^5

+62

80

*88

*76

'84

57.9

94.7

-66

*76

80

*74

*74

63 '.2

89.5

-96

72

*74

71

70

42 !i

68.4

-67

'74

'82

*76

*76

63 '.2

63^2

+29

*76

'SO

77

*76

73.7

78.9

+39

74

'so

*76

*76

57.9

68 [4

+44

82

*84

*82

'so

78.9

+40

*84

*85

*82

*84

73^7

-13

'S3

*87

*84

*84

68.4

+34

*86

*84

94.7

r+127

87

*84

October
November

1962
January
March
April
May
July

October

1963
^arch.
(\pril
*fey
July

Yugust

)ecember
1964

Lpril

lay
'une

iugust

68.8

ictober
L

59.'4

1

lst quarter, 1965.




Table 6.--DIRECTION OF CHANGE IN SERIES COMPONENTS AND PERCENT OF SERIES RISING: JULY 1963 TO PRESENT

ho

(D6) Value of Manufacturers' New Orders, Durable Goods Industries

1-month spans

1964

1963
36 industry components

r-H
3
>S
1

bfl
H
<
1

(^
(D
CO
1

-P
p
O
1

9 -month span?

1963

>
O
2
1

0
<l)
Q
1

i

i

i

i

i

i

i

i

i

i

i

i

i

i

i

1964

i

i

i

i

i

i

i

i

i

i

i

i

i

i

i

^ 5 •§ CO O §.S S f f i f i S ' S ^ S ^ S S r i

51 .53 53 69 33 62 56 44 58 61 44 50 64 40 54 47 47

67 64 53 67 62 72 69 58 83 78 76 83 81 75 72 64 64
+ + + + - - + + + + + + + + + - -

Primary metals:
'
T

d

t

1 f

- - + + - +
- - + + + +
_ _ + + + +

d '

+
+
+

+ -+
_++

- + 4 - - + _ + _
_ +

+
+

+
+

- + +
+

+

0

Fabricated metal products:
- + - + - +
- + + + - +

Hardware, structural metal and wire prod
Machinery, except electrical:
Steam engines and turbines*
Construction, mining, and material handling*.
M'

11

'

+

+
_

+
_

+

4_

+
-

_
+

+
+

+
+

. _ _
+ +

- - +

-

+

+

+

-

+

- -

- - + + - - + + + + +

.- + + + +
- +

+
0

rt
^
»-*•

O
+

_ +

-

0

+

+

- +

+

_

+

-

+

_

_

_

+

_

+

- -

_

+
+

+
+

+ - +

g
O

t*

Machine shops
Special industry machinery*

+

+

.

_

4

-

_

+

-

_

-

+

-

-

+

+

+

+

-

-

+

-

+

0

-

+

+

+ - + - +
- + - + +

- - +

+

- 4 -

+

-

+

+

+

_

+

_

+

+

-

+

-

_ _ +

+

_

_

+

_

-

-

+

+

+-

+

- -

+

0--

+

_

- + _

+

0 0

+

+ +
+ +

+
+

+
+

C/3

c

Ht
O

+

.

-

-

Electrical machinery:

Radio and TV
Electronic components • • • • • • .................

+

0

+

+

+ + - + - +
+ - - + - +
_ + _ + + +
- + - + + o _ + + _ _
+ _ _ + + _

_ _

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

+ + +

+

+

Transportation equipment:
M°t

h' 1

^

bl

-

*

Shipbuilding and railroad equipment*
Instruments, total
Lumber, total
Furniture , total
Stone, clay, and glass, total




,

+ = rising; o = unchanged; - = falling.

+ + + - -

+

- + - - -

_

+

_

_

_

+

+
+
+

+
+
-

+
+
-

+
+
+
-

+

+
- + +_
+ _ + +
+
+

+

- + + - - +

+

_

_
_

+

0

0
+

™

-

H

_

-

-

+-

+ +

_

_

0

+

-

+

+

Series components are seasonally adjusted by the Bureau of the Census

--

+ + + + -

+ + + +

before the direction of change is deter-

: JULY IVoJ I U KKtbbN I --Continued

ML.- v-^mi wni_m j f\nu rci\uc:iN i ur
(D19)

Index of Stock Prices, 500 Common Stocks
9-month spans

1-month spans

1964

1963
23 industry components

1963

i—1
3

M

D<

-p

>

C

O

ft

f*

fn

!>s

P

r—1

bfltt-P

>

O

O
^> <;2 c/j<l) oo z:
QQ) £ £ £ £ g £ £ 3 $ 8 : § S
i i i i i i i i i i i J i
C
rH
bD
tt
-P
'
O C , Q ? - i y - l P > j a r - l h D C X H
>
0 ) c d < U J j i Q 4 J ([ i ^ ) ^ ^ l Q ) O O

Q ^ f o 2 < ^ S * - 3

- D < i ; c o o 2 :

29 75 77 45 45 68 75 65 78 76 53 35 90 41 76 73 60
- 4 - 4 - 4 -

( '
m°

fh

tt

f

t

'

)

1964

1

-

i-4

bfl

tt

-P

>

0

8

§

Q

t^

(2i

g,

1

t

' 1

Steel

Natural gas distributors
Retail stores composite
Life insurance

't

+

4-

+

4

+

_ + +
+ + +
- 4 - 4 -

4-

4-

4-

4-

4-

4-

- 4- 44 - 4 - 4- 4- 40

+
+
+
+
_
+
4-

4- - 4- +
4- , 4- - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 t- + + +
4- - - 4- - - 4-

+ +

-

-

> i C r - l b £ ) t t - P >

0

-ttjxl^^^^^O^^^JSi
^ S ^ ' - a ^ C O O ^ O ^ f e S

99 95 89 85 78 80 78 69 71 84 83 78 86 86 85 85 82

4-

+ + + _ _
_ + * - _ _
- 4 - 4 - 4 - 4- 4"

P-l

+

J..-I

'

?H

: >

- 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - _ + +
- 4 - 4 - 4 - - +
+ _
_ _
_ +

C r Q

5i 3i £i 8i £t ai 7 ' 2 * ! f S ' ] f ' i f ! ' ? < ? S i ?
-P
>
0
C £>
!H
?H > s C r - i h D t t +
> O C ^ a f - i

-

+t++:;ti+ti

i::;::::::;

+ 4- 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - - __

+
_

+
+

+
+

1V
<
rt

+ + + + + +

4 - 4 - 4 -

+

4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 4 -

+

O

4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 4 -

+ '+

+

+

+

-

g
O

+

4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 -

+
+

+ 0
4-4-

+
+

+ - 0 - - + 44-4-4- + 4-4-4-

+

4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 -

+

+

+
4 +
4 4-

+ + +
4 - 4 - 4 - - 4 - 4 - +
+ 4- +

+

+

+

+

+
—
44 -

+

+
—
+
4 -

+

+

+

+ +
+ + +
+ + +
4 4 - +
4 - 4 - 4 -

+

--4-4+4.
4- +
+ -

+ = rising; o = unchanged; - = falling. Series components are not seasonally adjusted.
x
The 23 components shown here include 18 of the more important industries and 5 composites representing an additional 23 of the industries used in computing the diffusion index in table 42
Based on 80 industries to August 1963; on 79 industries, September 1963 to March 1964; and on 78 components thereafter.




i

Table 6.-DIRECTION OF CHANGE IN SERIES COMPONENTS AND PERCENT OF SERIES RISING: JULY 1963 TO PRESENT-Continued
(D23) Index of Industrial Materials Prices

9-month spans

1-month spans
1963
rH
•3
^>
1

C
2
f-3

bfl ft
3 (D
< co
1
1
rH
3
HO

bfl
3
<$

-p
0
O
1

ft

(U
CO

u

I-p a
3

1

cd
o

&

c

Lead scrar) (ib )
Steel scrap (ton)
Tin (ib. )

0

-

P

/?r/\""nc"

H -i rloc;
Ta " l ~ l r > t r

(~\ K

f ~1 V»

t

V+ "

+

,

1

rH

O

8i
a

^

t
+

-

•*+ +• +

-

1

a

8

rH
3
i=a
1

bfl
jj
-^
1

ft -p
<y o
CO 0
1
1

>
0
O CD
2 Q
1
1

C , Q ? H f H > s C r H t l O f t - P > 0

c d ^ j s l f t j s l ^ ^ ^ f u u o c p
l ~ 3 | x H S < ^ S ( - 3 H ^ < i J C O O ! 2 ; Q

1

^

o
O
D
cd
<U
ol
o
a
Q
^
fa
s

>

1

s

1

C

1

r

H

t

1

a

1

D

f

1

t

-

1

P

1

>

1

O

C

1

^

1

^

-h

Hh

t

+ + + + + + + + ++

+ + _ + + +
+

+

+

-h

0

^

^

1

I enCD
i

J

-.

Print cloth (yd. ) , average
Wool tops (Ib. )

1

1

1964

38 62 38 50 65 62 54 77 62 38 62 54 54 62 62 62 62 54 58 77 62 69 62 69 69 85 85 77
O

+

Zinc (ib )
„ ,

1f

cd

54 54 54 77 69 54 62
+

1963

1964
Jun- Jul

13 industrial materials components

t
"

;

-h
f

+

-

0

0

+

~

~

+

+

+

+

F

+ +

+

--

+

+

+

+

+

++

r-

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

++

+

+

-

_

+

_

_

-

_

+

+

+

+

f-

+

+

+

- - _

+

"*"

_

_

^
p

_

^

rt
»-*•
p

+

+
+

*

+ +

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

_

.

+

+

+

+

++

+

+

g

—

n>

+ = rising; o = unchanged; - = falling, Series components are seasonally adjusted (except for all-industry totals) by the Bureau of the Census before the
direction of change is determined.
•"•Average for December 15, 16, and 17.

o




'




i_f\v_t_M i ui ji_r\ii_j r
(D5) Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance, State Programs
9-month spans

1-month spans

-p

<D

1963
26 area components

ft 0)
0 N

r-H
3
•-3
1

rQ-H

qj CO

bD PL,
"~J
(1)
«5J CO
1
1

-P
O
O
1

1964
>
O
"Z
1

O
O
Q
1

5 2 3 % 8^

1964

1963
iH

C , Q
^
JH
>s - C iH
b D C X - P
>
0
|c d < U ( S C l i C| j i |^ ) ^ ^ C D O O < L )

bO

PU

-P

>

0

•j H m o
o
<U
- 3 p ^ S < t 5 2 - ^ - 3 < i ; c o O 2 : Q ^ ^ c5 0 z Q
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
< |u - c3 cf (c <s <
D 3c Sd |p - J3( | s- D
i ^<r i ' J ^t <Q i O) ;O2 O;
Q

I f1|
| 1? I | a I I

sis!!! I l l l l t S I I I I I

43 49 45 62 32 34 85 13 66 76 51 51 60 57 55 32 34

74 57 64 87 49 34 85 60 57 74 69 70 69 77 87 70 55

NORTHEAST REGION

7
16

n
i
?i
8
??

Boston.
Buffalo .

0

.

.

.

New York

+
+ + +
+
+ +
+
+ +
+ - + + + +

+ +
+
^
+
+ +
+
+
+ +
+

Philadelphia
Pittsburgh

+
+

+

+

+

+ +

+

--

+ f
+ + + + + +

+

+

+

+ +

NORTH CENTRAL REGION

?
18

r*
^

O

Cincinnati

10
?6

+

+

5 Detroit

+

S

O
en
P
i-t

?«;
99

l5
13
Q

+
+
+
+ +
+
+
+ +
+ +

+
+

+ - + +
+ + - +

+
+
+

+
+
"*"
+ +
+ + -f.

+

en

"*"

SOUTH REGION
?0
1?

17
"U

Dallas

+

+

+
+
+ +
+
+ +
+

i

WEST REGION

?
24 Portland
6 San Francisco • *
19 Seattle*

....

.

+
+
+

+
+
+ + + +

+

+

+

-k-

+

'

- = rising; o - unchanged; + = falling. Because this series usually rises when general business activity falls and falls when business rises, it is inverted to show a comparable activity pattern. The direction of change is shown for the week ending nearest the 22d of the month. Series components are seasonally adjusted by the Bureau of the Census before the direction of change is determined.
^Designated by Bureau of Employment Security as an area of substantial unemployment (6 percent or more) in November 1964.
**Designated by Bureau, of Employment Security as an area of substantial (6 percent or more) and persistent unemployment in November 1964.
The percent rising is based on 47 labor market areas. Directions of change are shown separately for only the largest 26.




Table 6.-DIRECTION OF CHANGE IN SERIES COMPONENTS AND PERCENT OF SERIES RISING: JULY 1963 TO PRESENT-Continued

ON

(D41) Number of Empfoyees in Nonagricultural Establishments
6-month spans

1-month spans
1963

1964

1963

1964

30 industry components

Percent rising
All nonagricultural establishments.
Ordnance and accessories
Lumber and wood products
Furniture and fixtures
Stone, clay, and glass products
Primary metal industries
Fabricated metal products
Machinery.
Electrical equipment
Transportation equipment
Instruments and related products
Miscellaneous manufacturing industries.
Food and kindred products
Tobacco manufactures
Textile mill products
Apparel and related products
Paper and allied products
Printing and publishing
Chemicals and allied products
Petroleum and related products
Rubber and plastics products
Leather and leather products
Mining
Contract construction
Transportation and public utilities.
Wholesale trade
Retail trade
Finance, insurance, real estate
Services and miscellaneous
Federal government
State and local government
4- = rising; o = unchanged; - = falling.

78 53 57 67 53 8C 53 83 67 63 65 73 67 52 73 57 87

68
-

- 4- -

+

72 73 60 67 60 73 73 75 75 80 83 73 75 77
0

0

+ + + + +
_
+
+
+
+

0 - 4 -

_

o - - + -

+
+
+
+
+
o
+

+
+
+
o

+
+
+
+

+
+
+
+

+
+
+

+
+
+

+ - + +
+ + + +

+ + +

- o +
+ + +
o + + +
- - - + - + + o - o - - + + 00 +
+ +
+ + o + + +
_ + + + + +
o - - o + -

o
-

o o o - + +

-

- o -

+ + + +
+ + + +
+ + o

+ + + +

— o o -

+

o
+

+
-

_

o

+
+

+
+

+ + + +
+ + + +

+ + + +
- - o +
+ +
+ + + + +

+
+
+
+
+
+
-

+
+
+
+
+
-

o
+
+
+
+
+
o

+
+
+
+

+
+
+
+

+ +

+ + + + +
+ - - + +
+ + + + +
+ + + + +
+ +
+ +

g

n>

+ + + + +
+ + + + +
+ + + + +

Series components are seasonally adjusted by issuing agency before the direction of change is determined.

8




JU.IMI-J I
(D47)

. JUL i i7oo i u r i

Index of Industrial Production

6-month spans

1-month spans

1963

1964

1963

1964

24 industry components
r—1

3
1

t»0

^>

<J

C

i—I

^

CX

-H

o
1

>

O

2:

Q

QJ

o
1

-H>

>-> < u)

o

z:

3 0)
C/}
1 1

bfl

Illilflllll! llffll HiffUffffl

O

o>
1
f>

73 69 58 65 50 77 58 79 71 83 71 62 79 69 46 69 69

92 92 83 92 77 79 73 83 83 92 96 85 92 88 88 79 69

DURABLE GOODS
Primary metal products
Fabricated metal products
Machinery and related products
Machinery, except electrical
Electrical machinery
Transportation equipment

+

+

-

+

- +

+

4-

+

+

+

+

+

+

- -

•
+

0

+

-

+

+

-

+

+

+

-

+

+

+

4-

+

-

+

4-

-f

_

_

_

_

-

+ + + + + + + ++

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

+
+

+
+

+
+

+
+

+
+

+
+

- 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - + - + + - J - - + -+
- + + + - + + + + - +

+

+

+

Clay, glass, and lumber
Lumber and products

- + + + --

+

+
+

+

•

..

+

+

4-4-

•

4-

n^
!-»•

+

+

_

_

_

- 4 - - - 4 - N A

O
.

Furniture and fixtures

+

-

+

0

+

+

+

+

+ -

+

+

+

4-

4-

+

4-

-

- 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 4 - 4 - 4 - 4- 4 - 4 - 4 - -

_

+ +
+ +

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

+ + + + +

-

+ +

+
+

+ - + + +
+ + + - -

+

4-

NONDURABLE GOODS

£
n>

Textile, apparel, and leather
-

+

-

+

-

- 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - NA

4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 -

Leather and products

+

+

+

-

-

+

Paper and products
Printing and publishing

-

4-

0

-

-

4-

+
-

-

+

+ + + + +

- - + N A

_

4-

+

4-

_

o

4-

+

_

-f-

+ __
+ _ _
- - + + + -

4- + - + N A
4 - - - NANA

_

+
+
_

+ + +
_ _

+ - - + + + + N A
+ + + + + + NA NA
_ + - + + + N A N A

4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - - + 0 4 - 4 -N A
+ 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - - - - 4 -

Chemicals and products
-f

+

+

+

+ NA NA

+ + +

Foods, beverages, and tobacco
Tobacco products

4-

-

-

4-

-

4-

4-

-

-

-

4-

4-

0
+

4+

_

_

_

4_

_

_

-

+

- -

+ +

+

+ +

+ +
- -

+ + + + - - - + NA
+ + + + + 4 - + N A N A

MINERALS
Coal
Metal mining
Stone and earth minerals

_

+

+

+

---

_

+

- 4 - -

+

- + N A

+

+

_

_

+

-

-

-

0 +

+

+

+

+

+

+

_

0

_

+

_

+

_

4

+

-

0

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

+ + + N A

4- = rising; o = unchanged; - = falling. Series components are seasonally adjusted by issuing agency before the direction of change is determined.
NA = not available;
^he direction of change is shown for industry groups where actual data for separate industries are not available; however, estimates for each industry
are used to compute the percent rising. The percent rising is based on 24 industry components.

o
c/i

Table 6.-DIRECTION OF CHANGE IN SERIES COMPONENTS AND PERCENT OF SERIES RISING: JULY 1963 TO PRESENT-Continued

00

(D54) Sales of Retail Stores
1-month spans

1963
24 retail store components

H
•3
"-D
1

C
•3
*-3

bO
3
<

1963

1964

bO Q< -P
3 0> 0
<! CO O
1
i
1
rH
3
*-3

9-month spans

Qi
0)
CO

>
O
2
1

-H
0
O

0
0)
Q
1
>
O
"Z

|

C ^ Q f H f n l ^ C r H b lO
C d a j j t i Q j j | j J | ^ ^ ^j
- T > I J H S < $ 2 ! ! - D - 3 < IU

1
O

1
C

1Q ^1

1n ^1

1
C r

r
J
-H
<L)cd
<D
cd
CX cd
3
Q ' ^ P u S - ^ S ' ^ ) ' -

P<
<D
CO
1
bO

-p
O
0
1
CX

>
O
O
O
Z' Q
1
1
-P
>•

J 5 ^ 8 £

67 65 25 58 54 77 44 71 52 52 67 67 46 52 38 69 46
- +

Grocery stores
Other food stores
Eating and drinking places
Department stores
Mai] order houses (department store mdse. ) . . , . .
Variety stores

amily an

ot er appare

s

+

_ + +

-+-

+ +

0

+

+ + -

- •o +

_

+

_ _

_

+

f

- -f

1964

rH
£j

^ -^ co o a Q

bD
H

Pi
<u

-P
o

>
O

O
<1J

C r Q r H r H r ^ C H b O a - P ^ O
a J D c d f t j u l ^ ^ J ^ Q J O O Q )
r - s P r n g ^ l S ' S r ^ ^ C O O I Z Q

O
O

O
2!

O

fl)

cd
r-o

fe

<D

jfl
S

r H > i C H b O f t - P > O C r Q ^ I
< i j ] > ; ( - - . h 7 i < t j r r ) ( ~ ) ! z p ^ K - < C : i - i ! S

Hi!;:

Liquor stores
Other durable- goods stores
+ = rising; o = unchanged; - = falling.
mined.




+

+ + + + + •f _ _ + _ +
-H

+ + -

-

- +

-

0

- +

-

+
+

+•

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

+

+

+

o +

+ +

1

1

+

+

+ + - - + +

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

H-

+

-f

+

+

+

4-

+

-

4-

+

4 - H - +

-

- 1- - o

1

85 77 60 52 62 88 71 92 83 77 79 100 85 83 83 83 60

+ _

*-+ -

+

1

- +

res

Passenger car and other automotive dealers
Tire battery accessory dealers.
..........
Gasoline service stations

1

+

0

_

+

-

f - f + + +

-

+

S
o

-

O

+

o

C/i

+ -*-• +

-+-

-f

+

0

0

-

+

+

-1-

+

-

+

+

-

+

+

+

+

0

+

-

+

+

•*••*•

-

-

0

+

+

-

-

+

Series components are seasonally adjusted by the Bureau of the Census

---

+ +

+ _

+

before the direction of change

-

+

-

is deter-

Ul— I

I /WO

I W

I

l\l- Jl_M I •• V»UIII IIIUCU

(D58) Index of Wholesale Prices, All Manufacturing
6-month spans

1-month spans

1964

bo a •*->

^
t
a
;3
•-a

<!
i
r-i
2
^-9

3

2

0)

00
l
bo
d
<!

O

O
l
a
0)
CO

£>

o

i ai
+
i1
C

2

C
C

C
cd
1-3
1
0

,0
CD
CL,
1
C

h
jsi
S
1
,0

t-(
ft
<i
I
IH

>> • C!
s& 1-3
3
S
1
1
^
f>»

iH
3
1-3
1
C

Q

S

£

fi

^

^

£

t, ?o. 1 a

gI

0

8

48 61 59 74 70 61 59 63 46 63 44 46 65 67 '61 59 52
o

+

-

_

4-

_

0

0

0

0

-

4-

-

-

40

o
4-

o

- O
0 4-

o

_ +

h

+

+

+ -

0

4-

+

4-

-

o

+

+
+
+

+ + + +
0 4- 0 40 4- + +
4- - + o
- - 4- 4-

+
+
o
0
o

+

+

0

0

+ +

1

inp-uBr

.H

Sep-Oct

1963
23 manufacturing industries

1963

1964
>

o

i && % ?
ID

ft

-P

1)
1)
IH

i
S
S

i
Q.
<J

i

i

i

i

i

i

i

i

i

i

i

i

52 i50 59 72 76 74 70 67 67 74 67 61 50 61 63 63 56
+ + + + + - + + + + + + - + ++
+

DURABLE GOODS

Nonferrous metals

•*
M'

11

+

+

+

+

+ o o + - + - + + o +

-

-

-

O -

+

+

+

0

0

+

+

_

4-

+

+

0

+

+

+

+

+

+ +
o

- +
+

-

-+ + + + +
- - - + + + + + + + + +
--

-

-

0

0

+

+
+
+

+
+
+

+
+
+

+
+
+

+
+
+

+
+
+

* + + + t t + t + + ^

+
+

+

+

+

0

+

+
+

+
+

+

-

+
+

+
+

+ +
+ +

+
+
+

+
+

-

0

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

-

+

+

+

+

+

0

-

-

-

0

o
+

d

go

NONDURABLE GOODS

.,

P °fh S * t ' * t * i

ri " " t

A

n

p

Hides, skins, leather, and leather products....
+ = rising; o = unchanged; - = falling.
mined.




40
-

+ o O
_ + +
+ 0 4-

O 4+ o
+ +

+

0

+

+

0

+

+

0

+

O 4-

-

o

+

0

0

+

+

-

+

- 0 - 4 - 0 0
0 0 + 0 0 0

+

0

-

-

+

+

+

+

-

+ + + +

-

f
0

o

+
o
+

+

+

-

+

-

0

+

+

-

+
+
+
+

+
+
o

+

-0

+

+

+

- + 0 0

0

+
+

+

+

Series components are seasonally adjusted by the Bureau of the Census

before the direction of change

is deter-

Cyclical Patterns

50

COMPARISONS OF REFERENCE CYCLE PATTERNS
Percent of reference peak levels of selected series compared for 4 business cycles. Period begins with
the reference peak date preceding the trough of each cycle.
PERIOD COVERED
- Nov. 1948 to July 1953 (Reference trough:
.........
July 1953 to May 1958 (Reference trough:
----July 1957 to Jan. 1962 (Reference trough:
- May 1960 to present* (Reference trough:
t

Index

Oct. 1949)
Aug. 1954)
Apr. 1958)
Feb. 1961)

Indicates the point at which this expansion reached
its reference peak,

9. Construction contracts
awarded, comm. and Indus.
bldg.2

I I I II II I II IM IMI I I

*- Reference trough dates
1. Avg. workweek, prod,
workers, mfg.

29. New pvt. housing units
authorized, local bldg.
permits

24. Mfrs.' new orders
mach. and equip, indus.

-6

0

+6

+12+18

+24

Months from reference troughs

+30

+36

+42

-12

-6

0

+6

+12

+18

+24

+30

+36

+42

Months from reference troughs

^Reference peak level. For series with a "months for cyclical dominance" (MCD) of "1" or "2", the figure for the reference peak is set at "100". For serie;
with an MCD of "3" or more, the average of the 3 months centered on the reference peak month is set at "100". For quarterly series, the reference peak quarter i:
sefat "100". MCD values are shown in appendix C.
^ee table 2 for latest month in current period. Percent changes for this month and comparable months of previous expansions are shown in table 7.
^or the 1949, 1954, and 1958 cycles, a 3-term moving average is shown.




51

Cyclical Patterns
COMPARISONS OF REFERENCE CYCLE PATTERNS--Con.
Percent of reference peak levels of selected series compared for 4 business cycles. Period begins with
the reference peak date preceding the trough of each cycle.
PERIOD COVERED
I | I I I I l| II II 11 M I II I I I II I Ml II I

Nov. 1948 to July 1953 (Reference trough: Oct. 1949)
July 1953 to May 1958 (Reference trough: Aug. 19541
July 1957 to Jan. 1962 (Reference trough: Apr. 1958)
May 1960 to present1 (Reference trough: Feb. 1961)

Reference trough dates

Indicates the point at which this expansion reached
its reference peak.

19. Stock prices, 500
common stocks

)L-

-12

-6

0

+6

+12

+18

+24

Months from reference troughs

+30

+36

+42

-12

-6

+6
+12
+18
+24
+30
Months from reference troughs

Reference peak level. For series with a "months for cyclical dominance" (MCD) of "1" or "2", the figure for the reference peak is set at "100". For series
an MCD of "3" or more, the average of the 3 months centered on the reference peak month is set at "100". For quarterly series, the reference peak quarter is
3t "100". MCD values are shown in appendix C.
See table 2 for latest month in current period. Percent changes for this month and comparable months of previous expansions are shown in table 7.




Cyclical Patterns

52
CHART 4|

COMPARISONS OF REFERENCE CYCLE PATTERNS»Con.
Percent of reference peak levels of selected series compared for 4 business cycles. Period begins with
the reference peak date preceding the trough of each cycle.
PERIOD COVERED
I

Nov. 1948 to July 1953 (Reference trough: Oct. 1949)
July 1953 to May 1958 (Reference trough: Aug. 1954)
July 1957 to Jan. 1962 (Reference trough: Apr. 1958)
—— May 1960 to present! (Reference trough: Feb. 1961)
^

I I I M I Ml l I |

Reference trough dates

Indicates the point at which this expansion reached
its reference peak.
l l I I II I I I I I I I II I I I II I I I I

Inde;

Reference trough dates

nor

41. Employees in nonagri
establishments

55. Wholesale prices, except
farm prod, and foods

-12

0

+6

+12+18

+24

Months from reference troughs

+30

+36

+42

-12

-6

0

+6

+12

+18

+24

+30

+36

+42

Months from reference troughs

* Reference peak level. For series with a "months for cyclical dominance" (MCD) of "1" or "2", the figure for the reference peak is set at "100". For sei
with an MCD of "3" or more, the average of the 3 months centered on the reference peak month is set at "100". For quarterly series, the reference peak quarte
sefat "100". MCD values are shown in appendix C.
"^ee table 2 for latest month in current period. Percent changes for this month and comparable months of previous expansions are shown in table 7.




Cyclical Patterns
4|

53

COMPARISONS OF REFERENCE CYCLE PATTERNS»Con.
Percent of reference peak levels of selected series compared for 4 business cycles. Period begins with
the reference peak date preceding the trough of each cycle.
PERIOD COVERED

—
...
-—

II II I I I I I III III I I M M l I I I I M I II

Nov. 1948 to July 1953 (Reference trough: Oct. 1949)
July 1953 to May 1958 (Reference trough: Aug. 1954)
July 1957 to Jan. 1962 (Reference trough: Apr. 1958)
May 1960 to present1 (Reference trough: Feb. 1961)

I M I I I I I Index

Reference trough dates

Indicates the point at which this expansion reached
its reference peak.
I i Mi Ml I i I MMI | I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I 1 I I I | I I

-<- Reference trough dates

-12

0

+6

+12

+18

+24

Months from reference troughs

+30

+36

+42

-12

-6

0

+6

+12

+18

+24

+30

+36

+42

Months from reference troughs

Reference peak level. For series with a "months for cyclical dominance" (MCD) of "1" or "2", the figure for the reference peak is set at "100". For series
an MCD of "3" or more, the average of the 3 months centered on the reference peak month is set at "100". For quarterly series, the reference peak quarter is
t "100". MCD values are shown in appendix C
iee table 2 for latest month in current period. Percent changes for this month and comparable months of previous expansions are shown in table 7.




Cyclical Patterns

54

CHART 4|

COMPARISONS OF REFERENCE CYCLE PATTERNS»Con.
Percent of reference peak levels of selected series compared for 4 business cycles. Period begins with
the reference peak date preceding the trough of each cycle.
PERIOD COVERED

Nov. 1948 to July 1953 (Reference trough: Oct. 1949)
July 1953 to May 1958 (Reference trough: Aug. 1954)
July 1957 to Jan. 1962 (Reference trough: Apr. 1958)
May 1960 to present1 (Reference trough: Feb. 1961)

—
•

Reference trough dates

Indicates the point at which this expansion reached
its reference peak.
62. Wage and salary cost
per unit of output, all mfg.

Ind.

Reference trough dates

61. Business expenditures,
new plant and equipment

67. Bank rates, short-term
business loans

64. Mfrs.' inventories
all mfg. industries

90L
-12

-6

0

+6

+12+18

+24

Months from reference troughs

+30

+36

+42

-12

-6

0

+6

+12+18

+24

+30

+42

Months from reference troughs

^Reference peak level. For series with a "months for cyclical dominance" (MCD) of "1" or "2", the figure for the reference peak is set at "100". For s
with an MCD of "3" or more, the average of the 3 months centered on the reference peak month is set at "100". For quarterly series, the reference peak quart
sefat "100". MCD values are shown in appendix C.
"''See table 2 for latest month in current period. Percent changes for this month and comparable months of previous expansions are shown in table 7.
2
Last quarter anticipated.




55

Cyclical Patterns
COMPARISONS OF SPECIFIC CYCLE PATTERNS

CHART 5

Percent of specific trough levels of selected series compared for 4 business expansions. Period begins
with the specific trough date1 of each series for each expansion.
Index

PERIOD COVERED
From specific trough dates to 4 months later.2 Specific
trough dates are the dates each series actually begins the
expansion identified with the reference trough of—
1949
1954

9. Construction controcts
oworded, comm. ond Indus.

1958
1961

Wdgs.3
I I I I I 11 M I N I I I I i 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
-Specific trough dates

1. Avg. workweek, prod,
workers, mfg.

100*
24. Mfrs.' new orders,
mach. and equip, indus

0

+6

+12
+18
+24
+30
Months from specific troughs

Specific trough level. For series with a "months
MCD of "3" or more, the average of the 3 months
"100". MCD values are shown in appendix C.
2
See appendix B for specific dates.
See table
jghs of previous expansions are shown in table




+36

+42

+48

0

+ 6 + 1 2
+18
+24
+30
Months from specific troughs

+36

+42

+48

for cyclical dominance" (MCD) of "1" or "2*, the figure for the specific trough is set at "100*. For series witii
centered on the specific trough month is set at "100". For quarterly series, the specific trough quarter is set
2 for latest month in current period. Percent changes for this month and comparable months after Hie specific
3
9.
For the 1949 and 1958 cycles, a 3-term moving average is shown*

Cyclical Patterns

56

COMPARISONS OF SPECIFIC CYCLE PATTERNS-Con.
Percent of specific trough levels of selected series compared for 4 business expansions. Period begins
with the specific trough date1 of each series for each expansion.
PERIOD COVERED
From specific trough dates to 48 months later.2 Specific
trough dates are the dates each series actually begins the
expansion identified with the reference trough of—
1949
1954

1958
1961

I III I l l l l l III II I M M I I II III I II 1 1 1 I III 1 1 1 II I
Specific trough dates

.». / "

19. Stock prices, 500
common stocks

+6

+12
+18
+24
+30
Months from specific troughs

+36

+42

+4fc

0

+6

+12
+18
+24
+30
Months from specific troughs

+36

+42

+48

*Specific trough level. For series with a "months for cyclical dominance" (MCD) of "1* or "2", the figure for the specific trough is set at "100". For series w
an MCD of "3" or more, the average of the 3 months centered on the specific trough morrth is set at "100". For quarterly series, the specific trough quarter is s
at "100*. MCD values are shown in appendix C.
I
2
5ee appendix B for specific dates.
See table 2 for latest month in current period. Percent changes for this month and comparable months after the specii
3
troughs of previous expansions are shown in table 9.
For the current cycle, changes are based on the low (L) shown in table 2,




Cyclical Patterns

57

COMPARISONS OF SPECIFIC CYCLE PATTERNS-Con.
Percent of specific trough levels of selected series compared for 4 business expansions. Period begins
with the specific trough date1 of each series for each expansion.
Index

PERIOD COVERED
From specific trough dates to 46 months later.2 Specific
trough dates are the dates each series actually begins the
expansion identified with the reference trough of—
1949
1954

1958
1961

115

I III I M i l I | III | I Ml I MM I

41. Employees in nonogri.
establishments

-110

+6

+12
+18
+24
+30
Months from specific troughs

^Specific trough level. For series with a "months
n MCD of "3" or more, the average of the 3 months
t "100". MCD values are shown in appendix C.
2
*See appendix B for specific dates.
See table
•oughs of previous expansions are shown in table




+36

+42

0

+6

I I I I !I
II Mill
+12
+18
+24
+30
+36
Months from specific troughs

+42

for cyclical dominance" (MCD) of "1* or "2", the figure for the specific trough is set at "100*. For series with
centered on the specific trough month is set at "100". For quarterly series, the specific trough quarter is set
2 for latest month in current period. Percent changes for this month and comparable months after the specific
9.

Cyclical Patterns

58

Table /.-PERCENT OF REFERENCE PEAK LEVELS AS MEASURED AT DESIGNATED MONTHS AFTER THE REFERENCE TROUGH DATES
IN THE 9 MOST RECENT EXPANSIONS
For series with a "months for cyclical dominance" (MCD) of "1" or "2" (series 1, 17, 19, 23, 41, 43, 47, 52, 54, 55
62, 64, and 66), the figure for the reference peak month is used as the base.
For series with an MCD of "3" or mor
(series 2, 3, 6, 7, 9, 13, 14, 24, 29, and 51), the average of the 3 months centered on the reference peak month i
used as the base.
The base for quarterly series (series 16, 49, 50, 61, and 67) is the reference peak quarter. Se
also MCD footnote to appendix C.

Selected series

Percent of reference peak prior to reference expansion
Months
beginning in—
after
referNov. Mar.
July
July
June
ence
Oct. Aug. Apr. Feb.
1924
1933
1938
1927
1949
trough1 1921
1954
1958
1961

NBER LEADING INDICATORS
1. Average workweek of production workers,
2. Accession rate manufacturing.
3 . Layoff rate, manufacturing ( inverted )
6. Value of manufacturers' new orders, durable
goods industries
7. New private nonfarm dwelling units started. .
9. Construction contracts awarded for commercial and industrial bldgs., floor space2...
13.
14.
16.
17.
19.
23.
24.

Number of new business incorporations. ......
Current liabilities of bus. failures (inv.).
Corporate profits after taxes (Q)
Price per unit of labor cost index
Index of stock prices, 500 common stocks....
Index of industrial materials prices
Value of manufacturers1 new orders, machinery and equipment industries
29. Index of new private housing units authorized by local building permits

45
44
44

(NA)
37.6
15.6

94.4
28.1
30.4

82.5
35.0
44.9

45
45

164.4
198.9

114.3
142.6

35.9
33.7

44

37.9

113.9

28.3

44
45
42
45
45
45

73.4 104.4 101.1
21.8 118.6
59.6
90.0 84.6
1.9
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
116.4 223.8 106.8
66.0
80.1
53.8

76.4 106.5 102.0
62.4 164.0 109.1
88.9 119.6 152.8

95.3
67.8
43.4

100.5 102.
111.8 105.
93.3 157.

(NA) 153.4
236.3 112.0

102.4
88.2

127.4 127.
117.3 111.

44.0 235.2 142.4

100.1

113.7

139.

134.6
47.9
108.4
101.2
142.4
99.1

107.
77.
141.
102.
154.
108.

115.9
75.4

55.5 117.2 125.4
67.3
(NA) 128.2 65.0 - 65.0
83.7
54.4 204.7 97.0
(HA)' (NA) 97.6
95.5
56.7
50.3 158.9 179.9
87.3 110.7
79.1
94.1

116.3 124.2

134.

(NA)

118.0

119.

100.8
35.6
95.3
117.4
105.3
126.3
122.6
117.2

103.2
72.6
112.5
119.8
112.5
136.1
121.5
113.0

108.
104.
122.
124.
117.
142.
124.
116.

110.5 109.5 108.9

101.2

100.

(NA) 126.2 115.3
(NA) 129.5 107.9

93.8
94.6

125.
128.

118.9 111.7 114.9 100.2
(NA) 153.8 113.5 105.4
(NA) 151.5 130.6
143.4

97.
113141

45

(NA)

(NA)

(NA)

(NA)

(NA) 148.6

45

(NA)

(NA)

(NA)

(NA)

(NA)

(NA)

45
45
45
42
42
45
45
45

85.2
(NA)
109.9
(NA)
(NA)
101.2
(NA)
109.4

92.6
76.1
93.5 121.4
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
76.5 102.5 153.0
104.4
80.2 149.8
119.6 85.6
(NA)
99.0
121.7 100.7
70.1 134.8
129.5 80.5
115.0
81.8
82.5 148.0
83.8
105.9
91.4 124.7

111.8
143.7
137.3
138.7
125.5
143.3
135.4
126.3

45

65.5

87.1

74.3

90.2

42
45

54.1
54.8

94.2
100.2

50.8
41.4

57.2
64.7

45
44
44

74.4
(NA)
(NA)

90.1
(NA)
(NA)

83.3
83.3
(NA) 86.2
(NA) 113.2

42

79.3

88.6

91.5

NBER ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
41. Number of employees in nonagri cultural
43 . Unemployment rate, total ( inverted )
47. Index of industrial production
49. Gross national product in current dollars(Q)
50. Gross national product in 1954 dollars (Q)..
51. Bank debits outside NYC 343 centers
54. Sales of retail stores
55. Index of wholesale prices, all commodities
NBER LAGGING INDICATORS
61. Business expenditures on new plant and
equipment, total (Q):3
a
b
62. Index of labor cost per unit of output,
64. Manufacturers' inventories, book value
67. Bank rates on short-term business loans,
19 cities (Q)

54.7

(NA) 141.3 120.4

102.7

93.

NOTE: For the expansions beginning in July 1921, July 1924, November 1927, August 1954, and April 1958, the pee
had been passed and a reference contraction was underway by the month indicated in the first column. See appendix A fc
the reference peak dates and earlier issues of Business Cycle Developments for the levels reached on those dates.
NA Not available.
1
Based on period from February 1961 (current trough) to latest month for which data are available.
2
Except for 1961, changes are computed in a 3-term moving average of the seasonally adjusted series.
3
Comparisons are made for this series on the basis of (a) the period 42 months after the February 1961 trough (actue
expenditures) and (b) the period 45 months after the same period (anticipated expenditures for 4th quarter 1964).




Cyclical Patterns

59

Table 8.--PERCENT CHANGE FROM REFERENCE TROUGH LEVELS AS MEASURED AT DESIGNATED MONTHS AFTER THE REFERENCE
TROUGH DATES IN THE 9 MOST RECENT EXPANSIONS
'or series with a "months for cyclical dominance" (MCD) of "1" or "2" (series 1, 17, 19, 23, 41, 43, 47, 52, 54, 55,
62, 64, and 66), the figure for the reference trough month is used as the base. For series with an MCD of "3" or
more (series 2, 3, 6, 7, 9, 13, 14, 24, 29, and 51), the average of the 3 months centered on the reference trough
month is used as the base.
The base for quarterly series (series 16, 49, 50, 61, and 67) is the reference trough
quarter. See also MCD footnote to appendix C.

Selected series

Percent change from reference trough of expansion
Months
beginning in —
after
referApr.
Aug.
Oct.
June
Mar.
July
Nov.
July
ence
1954
1938
1933
1958
1949
1927
trough1 1921 1924

Feb.
1961

NBER LEADING INDICATORS
1. Average workweek of production workers,

45
44
44

+4.4
(NA)
(NA)

+3.3
+31.0
-2.0

+2.8
+13.3 +22.1
-15.9
-52.2 + 52.5 +83.6 +22.8
-36.6 +140.7 +141.2 +127.8

45
45

+133.0
+103.1

+2.0
+44.0

-64.0
-67.6

(NA)
(NA)
(NA) +151.6

+77.1
-20.0

44

+39.1

+64.0

-67.3

(NA)

(NA)

+65.0

44
45

+1.4 •+41. 0
+29.2 +31.6
(NA) +57.1
(NA)
(NA)
+ 57.4 +114.8
+ 57.7 -4.4

-2.5
-5.7
-34.3

+3.8
+3.9
+23.0 -2.5
+61.7 +80.0

6. Value of manufacturers' new orders, durable
7. New private nonfarm dwelling units started..
9. Construction contracts awarded for commercial and industrial bldgs., floor space2...
4. Current liabilities of bus. failures (inv.).
7. Price per unit of labor cost index
9. Index of stock prices, 500 common stocks....

42
45
45

45

-15.0
-2.6
-35.5
(NA) +74.3
-35.2
(NA)
-97.4 +54.2
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
-18.5 +173.8 -19.9
-44.8 +110.2 +63.6

+44.3 +36.2
—24-. 6 +20.9 +12.2

+14.3

+3-3 +44.6 +49.2

+6.2 +41.0
+12.1
-44.6 -31.8 -36.3
-1.8 +43.3
+24.1
-2.7 +7.0
-1.?
+ 52.9 +42.2 +63.1
+5.2
-5.9 +14.1

+16.0
-20.4
+64.1
+4.6
+37.4
+14.0

4. Value of manufacturers' new orders, machin-

45

(NA)

(NA)

(NA)

(NA)

(NA)

+69.5

+24.9 +40.6 +41.8

45

(NA)

(NA)

(NA)

(NA)

(NA)

-10.8

-20.1

+16.0

+23.7

-20.8 +36.6 +35.5 +17.8
(NA) +200.4
(NA) +98.4
-18.7 +112.5 +123.9 +50.0
-14.7 +59.2 +70.1 +43.5
(NA) +27.4
-1.6 +37.4
+83.8 +61.5 +49.2
-25.9
+66.2
+67.7
+41.5
-18.9
-16.2 +73.7 + 52.9 +26.3

+4.4
-17.7
+4.8
+19.6
+8.5
+24.3
+22.9
+18.0

+7.4
+27.8
+31.0
+22.8
+17.0
+40.5
+21.9
+14.8

+10.1
+38.0
+30.2
+25.3
+19.7
+39.1
+23.6

+9.7

+1.7

+0.5

+20.8 +16.8
+13.0 +17.7

+34.9
+38.0

-5.7
+H.5 +16.1 +12.5
(NA) +64.8 +21.4
+9.3
+53.8 +100.3 +46.6 +29.5

-4.1
+14.7
+36.6

+26.1 +18.9

+0.2

9. Index of new private housing units authorNBER ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
1. Number of employees in nonagri cultural
3 . Unemployment rate, total ( inverted )
9. Gross national product in current dollars (Q)
0. Gross national product in 1954 dollars (Q)..
1. Bank debits outside NYC, 343 centers
5. Index of wholesale prices, all commodities
other than farm products and foods .........

45
45
45
42
42
45
45
45

+23.6
+6.6
(NA)
(NA)
+60.8 +27.1
+34.5 +22.4
+33.5 +22.0
+30.5 +33.7
+37.4 +H.9
+16.7
+5.9

+24.5

+17.0

+35.1
+43.6

-42.2 +233.3
-52.9 +276.9

(NA)
(NA)

-17.3
(NA)
(NA)

-12.3
(NA)
(NA)

+13.6
-15.4
(NA) +45.4
(NA) +136.8

-26.^

+1.0

45

+3.5

42
45

+57.5
+59.5

45
44
44
42

-4.6

-20.1

+15.3

+ 18.4

NBER LAGGING INDICATORS
L. Business expenditures on new plant and
equipment, total (Q):3

b
I. Index of labor cost per unit of output,

7. Bank rates on short-term business loans,
19 cities (Q)

-4.9

-29.7

(NA)

+57.8
+61.8

+40.8

NOTE: For the expansions beginning in July 1921, July 1924, November 1927, August 1954, and April 1958, the peak
id been passed and a reference contraction was underway by the month indicated in the first column. See appendix A for
le reference peak dates and earlier issues of Business Cycle Developments for the levels reached on those dates.
NA Not available.
1
Based on period from February 1961 (current trough) to latest month for which data are available.
2
Except for 1961, changes are computed in a 3-term moving average of the seasonally adjusted series.
3
Comparisons are made for this series on the basis of (a) the period 42 months after the February 1961 trough (actual
rpenditures) and (b) the period 45 months after the same period (anticipated expenditures for 4th quarter 1964).




Cyclical Patterns

60

Table 9.--PERCENT OF SPECIFIC PEAK LEVELS AND PERCENT CHANGE FROM SPECIFIC TROUGH LEVELS AS MEASURED AT
DESIGNATED MONTHS AFTER THE SPECIFIC TROUGH DATES IN THE 9 MOST RECENT EXPANSIONS
For series with a "months for cyclical dominance" (MCD) of "1" or "2" (series 1, 17, 19, 23, 41, 43, 47, 52, 53, anc
54), the figure for the specific peak (trough) month is used as the base.
For series with an MCD of "3" or mor<
(series 9, 13, 24, and 29), the average of the 3 months centered on the specific peak (trough) month is used as th<
base. The base for quarterly series (series 49 and 50) is the specific peak (trough) quarter. See also MOD footnot<
to appendix C.

Selected series

Months
after
specific
trough1

July
1921

July
1924

Nov.
1927

Mar.
1933

June
1938

Oct.
1949

Aug.
1954

Apr.
1958

Feb.
1961

Percent of specific peak prior to reference expansion
beginning in year shown

NBER LEADING INDICATORS
1. Average workweek of production workers,
9. Construction contracts awarded for commercial and industrial bldgs., floor space2...
13. Number of new business incorporations
19, Index of stock prices, 500 common stocks....

47

(NA)

-97.8 -100.0

a

"45.2
-"-86.3
(NA)
-99.2
---71.3

-"-114.6 ---108.2
-106.8 ---110.5
(NA)
(NA)
180.9 (NSC)
-100.8 ---76.6

45
45
49
47

24. Value of manufacturers' new orders, machin29. Index of new private housing units authorized by local building permits

72.1

100.0

(NSC)

---99.8

r
-99 . 0 100.

31.2 211.4 56.7 (NSC)
95.0 138. {
70.7 (NSC) ---138.1 100.'
--70. 4 44.3
(NA)
(NA) --107.2 *90.3 ---101.0 99. '
43.8 ---155.6 *186.3 *122.5 143. (
49.7
72.4 106.5 *135.1 *65.1 ---92.9 106. <

48 .

(NA)

(NA)

(NA)

(NA)

(NA) *211.6 ---106.2

47

(NA)

(NA)

(NA)

(NA)

(NA)

---91.3 ---96.6 -105.6
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
*112.3 -108.2 -116.2
(NA) (NSC) (NSC)
(NA) (NSC) (NSC)
(NA) ---111.1 *112.9
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
111.8 (NSC) (NSC)

93.5
(NA)
86.5
80.2
92.1
83.0
82.7
87.2

120.8
(NA)
150.8
142.6
(NA)
150.5
191.4
129.7

(NA)

(NA)

*99.2 132. (
*96.5

92.;

NBER ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
41. Number of employees in nonagri cultural
47. Index of industrial production
49. Gross national product in current dollars (Q)
50. Gross national product in 1954 dollars (Q)..
53. Labor income in mining, mfg., and construe..

45
42
45
42
42
47
47
43

47

19. Index of stock prices, 500 common stocks....
23. Index of industrial materials prices
24. Value of manufacturers' new orders, machin-

no 5. 4 ---102.7 107.;
-67.5 ---78.2 98.i
-109.2 -109.0 120.;
---121.6 *112.4 124.'
---110.1 -107.6 117.
---122.6 121.2 3123.'
---116.1 -108 . 3 119.'
117.7 ---109.4 114.'

Percent change from specific trough related to reference
expansion beginning in year shown

NBER LEADING INDICATORS
1. Average workweek of production workers,
9. Construction contracts awarded for commercial and industrial bldgs., floor space2...

---111.7
(NA)
135.1
134.9
121.9
134.9
-"-147.3
(NSC)

-+15. 4 --+7.9

*+4.5

+6.6

+19.9

+6.5

-+4.3

---+82.6 ---+40.1 +222.8
(NA) +82.0 (NSC)
"+42 . 9--+20 . 5*+12.8 -44.5 +19.5 (NSC)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA) *+15.2 *+6.8
+112.5 (NSC) +226.2 -19.8 *+87.4---+109.6
---+36.7 *+7.3 +94.7 +64.7 *+100.3 "+24.7

---+5.2

+6.,
+52.
+17.
+4.
+59.
+16.

41
45
45
49
47

---+118.5
*+23.6
(NA)
---+46.2
-+75.0

48

(NA)

(NA)

(NA)

(NA)

(NA) *+!80.1 *+89.9 *+36.7 +42.

47

(NA)

(NA)

(NA)

(NA)

(NA)

+38.9
*+51.7
-+9.4
-"-+48.1
--+17. 4

29. Index of new private housing units author-

(NA)

(NA) ---+56.3 +24.

NBER ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
41. Number of employees in nonagri cultural

49. Gross national product in current dollars (Q)
50. Gross national product in 1954 dollars (Q)..
53. Labor income in mining, mfg., and construe..

45
42
45
42
42
47
47
43

---+32.6 -"-+12.0 *+ll.f +36.6 +35.5
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA) +93.3
--+66.1 "+31. 7 "+24. S +85.6 +123.1
(NA) (NSC) (NSC) +59.2 +70.1
(NA) (NSC) (NSC) +36.7
(NA)
---+32.8 -x'+15.3 *+15.S +68.6 +72.3
(NA)
(NA) +132.4 +161.8
(NA)
+31.0 (NSC) (NSC) +70. C +60.6

*+17.8
+187.3
+50. C
+39.9
+24.2
+41.4
*+68.«
(NSC)

---+9.1
*+6l.9
*+21.3
---+24.9
*+H.3
---+24.2
*+25.6
+23.7

*+7.3 +10.
*+54.2 +42.
--+27.2 +30.
---+16.4 +25.
*+12.5 3 +19.
+22.6 +24.
---+17. 6 +25.
"+13. 7 +19.

NA Not available.
NSC No specific cycle related to reference dates.
^Indicates that a specific peak had been passed and a specific contraction was underway for this series by the mont
indicated in the first column.
The figure shown represents the change to the specific peak and the period covered i
shorter than that of the current expansion (col. l). See appendix B for specific peak dates.
•"•Based on period of the most recent specific expansion for each series; i.e., from the most recent specific trough t
the latest month shown in table 2.
The number of months is the same for each expansion except those indicated by a
asterisk (*). Specific trough dates are shown in appendix B.
2
Except for 1961, changes are computed in a 3-term moving average of the seasonally adjusted series.
3
Since no specific trough or peak has been designated, figures are based on the low (L) shown in table 2 and the hig
preceding that low.




Appendixes
Appendix A.-BUSINESS CYCLE REFERENCE DATES AND DURATION OF EXPANSIONS AND CONTRACTIONS
IN THE UNITED STATES: 1854 TO 1961

Duration in months
Business cycle
reference dates

Trough

Contraction
(trough
from previous peak)

Cycle
Expansion
(trough to
peak)

Trough from
previous
trough

Peak from
previous
peak

Peak

December 1854
December 1858
June 1861
December 186?
December 1870
March 1879

June 1857
October i860...
April 1865
June 1869
October 1873...
March 1882

XXX

30
22
46
IF
34
36

XXX

XXX

18
8
32
18
65

48
30
78
36
99

40
54
50
52
101

May 1885
April 1888
May 1891
June 1894
June 1897
December 1900

March 1887
July 1890
January 1893...
December 1895..
June 1899
September 1902.

38
13
10
17
18
18

22
27
20
18
24
21

74
35
37
37
36
42

60
40
30
35
42
39

August 1904.
June 1908
January 1912
December 19U
March 1919
July 1921

May 1907
January 1910...
January 1913...
August 1918....
January 1920...
May 1923

23
13
24
23
7
18

33
19
12
44
10
22

44
46
43
35
51
28

56
32
36
67
17
40

July 192A
November 1927
March 1933
June 1938
October 1945
October 1949

October 1926...
August 1929....
May 1937
February 1945..
November 1948..
July 1953

14
13
43
13
.8
11

27
21
50
80
37
45

36
40
64
63
88
48

41
34
93
93
45
56

August 1954
April 1958
February 1961

July 1957
May I960

II
9
9

35
25

53
44
34

48
34

4 cycles, 1945-1961

19
15
10

30
35
36

49
50
46

Average, peacetime cycles:
22 cycles, 1854-1961
8 cycles, 1919-1961
3 cycles, 1945-1961

20
16
10

26
28
32

45
45
42

Average, all cycles:
26 cycles, 1854-1961
10 cycles, 1919-1961

2

54
46

3

6

42

NOTE: Underscored figures are the wartime expansions (Civil War, World Wars I and II,
and Korean War), the postwar contractions, and the full cycles that include the wartime
expansions.
X

25 cycles, 1857-1960.
9 cycles, 1920-1960.
4 cycles, 1945-1960.

5

3

6

Source:




*21 cycles, 1857-1960.
7 cycles, 1920-1960.
3 cycles, 1945-1960.

2

National Bureau of Economic Research.

61

Appendixes

62

Appendix B.--SPECIFIC TROUGH AND PEAK DATES FOR SELECTED BUSINESS INDICATORS
Specific trough and peak dates are the actual dates that each series reaches its trough and peak. Reference dates ar<
those dates designated as the trough or peak of business activity as a whole. This table shows, for selected leadini
and coincident series, the specific dates related to reference dates in 9 recent business cycles.
Specific trough dates for reference expansions beginning in —
Selected series
Feb.
1961

Apr.
1958

Aug.
1954

Oct.
1949

June
1938

Mar.
1933

Nov.
1927

July
1924

July
1921

NBER LEADING INDICATORS
1. Average workweek of production
Dec. '60
9. Construction contracts awarded for
commercial and industrial bldgs... May '61
13. Number of new business incorpoJan. '61
17. Price per unit of labor cost index. Feb. '61
19. Index of stock prices, 500 stocks.. Oct. '60
23. Index of industrial mat. prices.... Dec. '60
24. Value of mfrs.1 new orders, machinery and equipment industries.. Nov. '60
29. Index of new private housing units
authorized by local bldg. permits-. Dec. '60
NBER ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
41. Number of employees in nonagriculFeb. '61
43. Unemployment rate, total (inverted) May '61
47. Index of industrial production
Feb. '61
49. GNP in current dollars (Q)
IstQ' 61
50. GNP in 1954 dollars (Q)
lstQ'61
NSC
53. Labor income in mining, manufacturing and construction
Dec. '60
54. Sales of retail stores
Apr. ' 61

Apr, '58 Apr. '54 Apr. '49 Jan. '38 Jun. ' 32 Apr. '28 Jul.'24 Feb. '2
Jun. '58 NSC

Aug. '49 Sep. '38 Oct. '32 Sep. '27 Jul.'24 Mar. '2

Nov. '57
Apr. '58
Dec. '57
Apr. '58

NSC
Dec. '53
Sep. '53
Feb. '54

Feb. '49
May '49
Jun.'49
Jun.'49

Feb. '58

Mar.1 54 Apr. '49 NA

Sep. '39
NA
Apr. '38
Jun. '38

Dec. '34
NA
Jun. '32
Jul.'32

Dec. '26 Jun. '24
NA
NA
NSC
Oct. '23
Aug. '28 Jun. '24

Jan. '2
NA
Aug. '2
Jul.'2

NA

NA

NA

NA

Feb. '58 NA

NA

NA

NA

NA

NA

NA

May '58
Jul.'58
Apr. '58
lstQ'58
IstQ' 58
Feb. '58

Oct. '49
Oct. '49
Oct. '49
2nd Q' 49
2nd Q' 49
Oct. '49

Jun. '38
Jun. '38
May '38
2nd Q' 38
IstQ' 38
May '38

Mar. '33
May '33
Jul.'32
lstQ'33
3rdQ'32
Mar. '33

Jan. '28
NA
Nov. '27
NSC
NSC'
4thQ'26

Jul.'24
NA
Jul.'24
NSC
NSC
2nd Q' 24

Jul.'2
NA
Apr. '2
4thQ'2
NA
2ndQ'2

NA
NSC

NA
NSC

NA
Mar. '2

Aug. '54
Sep. '54
Apr. '54
2ndQ' 54
2nd Q' 54
Mar. '54

Apr. '58 Aug . ' 54Oct. '49 Jun. '38 Mar. '33
Mar. '58 Jan. '54 NSC
May '38 Mar. '33

Specific peak dates for reference contractions beginning in —
Selected series
May
1960

July
1957

NBER LEADING INDICATORS
1. Average workweek of production
Apr.' 59 Nov. '55
9. Construction contracts awarded for
commercial and industrial bldgs... Jun.'60 Mar. '56
13. Number of new business incorpoApr. '59 Feb. '56
17. Price per unit of labor cost index. May '59 Dec. '55
19. Index of stock prices, 500 stocks.. Jul.'59 Jul.'56
23. Index of industrial mat. prices.... Nov. '59 Dec. '55
24. Value of mfrs.' new orders, machinery and equipment industries . .Jul.'59 Nov. '56
29. Index of new private housing units
authorized by local bldg. permits. Nov . ' 58Feb. '55
NBER ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
41. Number of employees in nonagri cultural establishments
Apr. '60 Mar. '57
43. Unemployment rate, total (inverted) Feb . ' 60Mar. '57
47. Index of industrial production
Jan. ' 60 Feb. '57
49. GNP in current dollars ( Q)
2ndQ'60 3rdQ' 57
50. GNP in 1954 dollars ( Q)
2ndQ' 60 3rd Q' 57
NSC
Aug. '57
53. Labor income in mining, manufacMay '60 Jul.'57
54. Sales of retail stores.....
Apr. '60 Aug. '57

NA Not available.




July
1953

Nov.
1948

May
1937

Aug.
1929

Oct.
1926

May
1923

Jan.
1920

Mar.1 53

NSC

NSC

Mar . ' 46Jul.'37 Jan. '29 Sep. '25 Aug. '22 Dec.'l

Jul.'46
NSC
Feb . ' 51Jan. '48
Jan. '53 Jun.'48
Feb, '51 Jan. ' 48

Dec. '36 Oct. '29 Nov. '25

Nov, '22 NA

Jan. '29
NA
Sep. '29
Mar. '29

Oct. '25
NA
NSC
Nov. '25

Apr. '23
NA
Mar. '23
Mar. '23

Dec.'l
NA
Jul.'l
Apr. '2

Feb. '51 Apr. '48 NA

NA

NA

NA

NA

NA

NA

NA

NA

NA

NA

NA

Jurt. ' 53
Jun.'53
Jul.'53
2ndQ' 53
2ndQ' 53
Oct. '53

Sep. '48
Jan. '48
Jul.'48
4thQ'48
4thQ'48
Oct. '48

Jul.'37
Jul.'37
May '37
3rdQ'37
3rdQ'37
Jun. '37

Aug. '29
NA
Jul.'29
3rd Q' 29
3rd Q' 29
Aug. '29

Jan. '26
NA
Mar. '27
NSC
NSC
2nd Q' 26

Jun. '23
NA
May '23
NSC
NSC
IstQ' 24

Jan. '2
NA
Feb. '2
NA
NA
NA

NA
NSC

NA
Jul.'2

Dec. '36
NA
Feb. '37
Mar. '37

Jul.'53 Sep. '48 May '37 Sep. '29 NA
Mar. '53 NSC
Sep. '37 Sep. '29 NSC

NSC No specific cycle related to reference dates.

Appendixes

63

Appendix C.-AVERAGE CHANGES AND RELATED MEASURES FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES
Part 1.—Average Percentage Changes

T/c
Monthly series

CI

I

NBER LEADING INDICATORS
Avg, workweek, production workers, mfg
.42
.49
Accession rate, manufacturing
4.52
4.80
Nonagricultural placements, all industries.... 1.82
1.29
Layoff rate, manufacturing
8.52
9.35
Temporary layoff, all industries
17.76 17.12
Avg. weekly initial claims, State unemploy4.62
5.29
. New orders, durable goods industries
3.25
3.79

•
.
.
.
.
.

. New orders, machinery and equipment indus
. Construction contracts, commercial and
. Contracts and orders, plant and equipment
. New building permits private housing
. Liabilities of business failures.
. Ratio, price to unit labor cost, manufacturing
. Stock prices, 500 common stocks
. Purchased materials, percent reporting higher

C

i/c

MCD

for
MCD
span

Average duration of run
(ADR)
CI

I

C

MCD

.21
1.63
1.18
3.88
3.99

2.00
2.77
1.09
2.20
4.29

2
3
2
3
5

.95
.91
.59
.70
.89

2.15
2.17
2.27
2.17
1.63

1.65
1.74
1.63
1.74
1.44

10.58
9.93
9.77
8.18
6.35

4.06
4.42
5.25
5.96
3.08

2.49
1.61

1.86
2.02

2
3

.86
.59

1.72
1.67

1.51
1.54

9.77
8.33

3.94
4.56

.84

1.76

1.51

12.50

3.62

4.47

4.01

1.61

2.49

3

9.66
4.93
7.34
3.82
2.68
16.86

9.43
4.61
7.31
3.39
2.36
16.36

1.67
1.47
1.14
1.48
1.10
2.52

5.65
3.14
6.41
2.29
2.15
6.49

6
4
6
3
3
6

13.09 12.81
.56
.69
1.86
2.65

2.11
.33
1.67

6.07
1.70
1.11

6
2
2

X

1.70
1.82
1.53
1.89
2.10
1.48

1.54
1.59
1.53
1.53
1.70
1.32

6.63
10.75
6.13
14.38
6.30
5.77

3.03
3.71
2.32
3.32
3.02
2.26

.68

1.53
2.23
2.35

1.37
1.74
1.67

9.77
7.47
12.70

5.30
3.60
3.94

( )
.82
t1)
.68
.77

C1)
x

(.94)

6.81

5.29

3.10

1.71

3

.66

2.54

1.76

10.58 4.63

. Production materials, percent reporting commitments 60 days or longer
. Vendor performance, percent reporting slower

5.81

5.32

2.14

2.49

3

.76

1.87

1.63

12.70

3.91

, Industrial materials prices

7.68
1.32

5.54
1.04

4.73
.74

1.17
1.41

2
2

.79
.95

3.53
2.44

2.12
2.05

9.77
11.55

4.20
4.06

.30
.36
4.19
5.98
4.82
3.11

.15
.29
3.14
5.02
2.56
1.88

.24
.19
2.41
2.86
3.56
2.35

.63
1.53
1.30
1.76
.72
.80

1
2
2
2
1
1

.63
.79
.69
.88
.72
.80

5.15
1.82
2.67
2.53
3.74
3.47

1.96
1.62
1.58
1.63
2.12
1.60

15.44
18.71
8.19
10.90
9.07
9.62

5.15
3.33
3.33
4.91
3.74
3.47

1.09
1.48
.49
.81
.78
.17

.58
1.44
.27
.53
.63
.10

.79
.60
.41
.61
.44
.13

.73
2.40
.66
.87
1.43
.77

1
3
1
1
2
1

.73
.54
.66
.87
.85
.77

3.53
1.69
3.43
3.43
2.53
3.53

2.05
1.53
1.84
1.90
1.80
2.65

9.77
18.14
18.14
11.55
9.54
11.55

3.53
4.31
3.43
3.43
3.62
3.53

NBER LAGGING INDICATORS
Labor cost per unit of output, manufacturing..
Book value of manufacturers' inventories......
Book value of manufacturers' inventories of

.65
.54

.48
,-19

.36
.49

1.33
.39

2
1

.72
.39

2.27
8.33

1.55
2.02

9.07
13.89

4.34
8.33

Consumer ' installment debt.

.80
.83

.54
.17

.49
.78

1.10
.22

2
1

.53
.22

2.40
11.45

1.42
2.29

15.63 5.17
18.00 11.45

5.59
5.68
5.37
5.20
26.87 26.37
15.12 14.78
26.25 26.21

.82
.95
4.09
2.70
6.12

6.82
5.47
6.45
5.47
4.28

6
6
6
6
6

C1)
(1X)

1.51
1.74
1.51
1.47
1.58

1.41
1.57
1.46
1.43
1.47

8.47
7.47
5.93
6.61
5.95

2.18
2.60
2.27
2.48
2.86

23.00 23.02
7.33
5.69
1.39
1.80
1.68
1.50
2.17
2.57
.58
.27

3.60
4.71
1.04
.58
1.12
.52

6.39
1.21
1.34
2.59
1.94
.52

6
2
2
4
3
1

1.51
2.47
2.72
2.26
2.63
9.13

1.45
2.00
2.13
1.79
1.90
2.63

5.56
9.71
10.46
8.67
8.56
17.13

2.53
3.55
3.75
4.90
3.55
9.13

NBER ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
, Employees in nonagricultural establishments...
, Unemployment rate, married males
, Average weekly insured unemployment, State....
, Industrial production
, Bank debits outside NYC..
. Labor income in mining, mfg., construction....
Sales of retail stores...
Wholesale prices, except farm prod, and foods.

OTHER U.S. SERIES WITH BUSINESS
CYCLE SIGNIFICANCE
Federal cash receipts from public
Defense Dept. obligations, procurement
Defense Dept. obligations, total.....
Mil itary contract awards in U. S
New orders , defense products
Treasury b ill rate
Treasury bond yields
Municipal bond yields
ee footnotes at end of table.




C1)
C 1)
C)
C1)

.81
.95
.93
.86
.52

64

Appendixes
Appendix C.-AVERAGE CHANGES AND RELATED MEASURES FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES-Continued
Part 1.—Average Percentage Changes—Continued

i/c
cT

Monthly series

I

C

T/C

MCD

for
MCD
span

Average duration of run
(ADR)

CI

I

C

MC:

OTHER U.S. SERIES WITH BUSINESS
CYCLE SIGNIFICANCE—COD.
4.59
3.61
.15
7.03
1.51

4.39
3.47
.10
6.69
.57

1.11
.97
.13
1.69
1.34

3.95
3.58
.77
3.96
.43

4
4
1
5
1

.96
.85
.77
.84
.43

1.77
1.59
6.00
1.52
5.95

1.66
1.51
2.25
1.45
1.87

7.06
7.53
25.20
7.88
13.89

2.'
2.(
6.(

123. Canada.
122 . United Kingdom
121. OECD European countries.. ....................
125. West Germany.
126. France
127. Italy
128. Japan

.90
1.14
.86
1.42
1.36
1.44
1.70

.77
1.09
.83
1.18
1.20
1.41
1.07

.52
.47
.50
.69
.68
.74
1.23

1.48
2.32
1.66
1.71
1.76
1.91
.87

2
3
2
2
2
3
1

.72
.81
.89
.93
.89
.64
.87

3.47
2.40
3.47
2.86
3.21
2.70
2.91

2.12
1.87
2.40
2.14
2.08
1.82
1.52

15.63
8.93
31.25
18.00
25.00
31.00
17.86

8.;
5.:
7.'
5.<

Quarterly series

CI

I

C

I/c

96. Unfilled orders, durable goods industries....

3.:
5.<

INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS OF
INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION

T/c
QCD

for
QCD
span

11.;
6.<
2.'

Average duration of run
(ADR)

CI

I

C

QC:

NBER LEADING INDICATORS
11.
16.
18.
22.

New capital appropriations, manufacturing....
Corporate profits after taxes
Profits per dollar of sales, manufacturing...
Ratio, profits to income originating,

11.35
6.28
6.76

7.11
4.03
4.80

7.31
4.71
4.17

.97
.86
1.15

1
1
2

.97
.86
.56

2.42
2.47
2.47

1.48
1.35
1.40

5.11
5.25
5.25

2.'
2.'
2.'

5.10

3.76

3.78

.99

1

.99

3.23

1.40

5.25

3.;

1.07
1.33
1.20

.46
.38
.31

1
1
1

.46
.38
.31

3.82
4.67
6.00

1.45
1.35
1.45

4.67
6.00
8.40

3.i
4.i
6.(

1.26
.49
1.57

2.64
.72
2.00

.48
.68
.79

1
1
1

.48
.68
.79

4.67
3.15
2.47

1.83
1.41
1.56

4.67
5.86
4.67

4.(
3..
2.'

8.33
2.86
1.47

7.58
2.90
6.15

1.10
.99
.24

2
1
1

.43
.99
.24

2.59
2.30
3.21

1.33
1.48
1.61

4.00
4.60
7.50

4.:
2.:
3.;

NBER ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
50 . GNP in 1954 dollars
4-9 . GNP in current dollars
57 . Final sales

1.29
1.54
1.30

.49
.53
.38

NBER LAGGING INDICATORS
61. Business expenditures, new plant and equip...
68. Labor cost per dollar of real corp. GNP
67. Bank rates on short-term business loans

3.15
.90
2.31

OTHER U.S. SERIES WITH BUSINESS
CYCLE SIGNIFICANCE

97. Backlog of capital appropriations

mfg.......

11.61
4.32
6.57

NOTE: Measures are computed for a period of at least
10 years beginning with January 1953, except for series 7,
86, 87, and 116. The period begins with May 1959 for
series 7 and with January 1960 for series 116. For series
86 and 87, the period ends with June 1962.
•'•Not computed for series when MCD is "6" or more.
The following are brief definitions of the measures
shown in this table. More complete explanations appear in
Electronic Computers and Business Indicators, by Julius
Shiskin, issued as Occasional Paper 57 by the National
Bureau of Economic Research, 1957 (reprinted from Journal
of Business, October 1957).
"CI", is the average month-to-month (or quarter-toquarter) percentage change, without regard to sign, in the
seasonally adjusted series. "F is the same for the irregular component, obtained by dividing the cyclical com-




ponent into the seasonally adjusted series. "C" is \
same for the cyclical component, a smooth, flexible me
ing average of the seasonally adjusted series.
"MCD" (months for cyclical dominance) provides an est
mate of the appropriate time span over which to obser
cyclical movements in a monthly series. It is small f
smooth series and large for irregular series. In derivi
MCD, percentage changes are computed separately for \
irregular component and the cyclical component for 1-mor
spans (Jan.-Feb., Feb.-Mar., etc.), 2-month spans (Jar
Mar,, Feb.-Apr., etc.), up to 5-month spans. Average
without regard to sign, are then computed for the chang
over each span.
MCD is the shortest span in months £
which the average percentage change (without regard
sign) in the cyclical component is larger than the avers
percentage change fwithout regard to sign) in the irre§
lar component, and remains so.
Thus, it indicates t
point at which fluctuations in the seasonally adjust
series become dominated by cyclical rather than irregul

Appendixes

65

A comparison of these measures of ADR with the expected
ADR of a random series gives an indication of whether the
changes approximate those of a random series. Over 1month intervals in a random series, the expected value of
the ADR is 1.5.
The actual value of ADR falls between
1.36 and 1.75 about 95. percent of the time. Over 1-month
intervals in a moving average (MCD) of a random series,
the expected value of ADR is 2.0. For example, the ADR of
CI is 1.67 for series 6, Value of Manufacturers1 New Orders, Durable Goods Industries. This indicates that 1month changes in the seasonally adjusted series, on the
average, reverse sign about as often as expected in a random series. The ADR measures shown in the next two columns, 1.54- for I and 8.33 for C, suggest that the seasonally adjusted series has been successfully separated into
an essentially random component and a cyclical (nonrandom)
component. Finally, ADR is 4.56 for the MCD moving average.
This indicates that a 3-month moving average of the seasonally adjusted series (3 months being the MCD span) reverses direction, on the average, about every 4 to 5 months.
The increase in the ADR from 1.67 for CI to 4.56 for the
MCD moving average indicates that, for this series, monthto-month changes in the MCD moving average usually reflect
the underlying cyclical-trend movements of the series,
whereas the month-to-month changes in the seasonally adjusted series usually do not.

vements. Since changes are not computed for spans greater
an 5 months, all series with an MCD greater than "5" are
own as "6".
Similarly, "QCD" provides an estimate of
e appropriate time span over which to observe cyclical
vements in quarterly series. It is the shortest span (in
arters) for which the average percentage change (without
gard to sign) in the cyclical component is larger than
e average percentage change (without regard to sign) in
e irregular component, and remains so.
"I/C" is a measure of the relative smoothness (small
lues) or irregularity (large values) of the seasonally
justed series.
For monthly series, it is shown for 1nth spans_and for spans of the period of MCD. When MCD

"6", no I/C_ratio is shown for the MCD period. For quarrly series, L/C is shown for 1-quarter spans and QCD
ans.
"Average Duration of Run" (ADR) is another measure of
Dothness and is equal to the average number of consecuve monthly changes in the same direction in any series
observations. When there is no change between 2 months,
change in the same direction as the preceding change is
sumed.
The ADR is shown for the seasonally adjusted
ries CI, irregular component I, cyclical component C,
I the MCD curve.
The MCD curve is a moving average
ith the number of terms equal to MCD) of the seasonally
justed series.

Appendix C.--AVERAGE CHANGES AND RELATED MEASURES FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES-Continued
Part 2.—Average Unit Changes

i/c
Monthly series

Unit of
measure

T

CI

C

i/c

MCD1

for
MCD
span

Average duration of run
(ADR)

CI

I

C

MCD

NBER LEADING INDICATORS
.. Change in book value, manufacAnn. rate,
turing and trade inventories.
bil. dol,..
1
). Change in book value, mfrs.
inventories of mat Is., supplies. . . do .>. Change in unfilled orders, durable goods
Bil. dol....

3.50

3.37

.85

3.96

4

.94

1.47

1.44

7.94

3.22

1.52

1.45

.37

3.93

5

.92

1.64

1.46

6.05

3.15

.16

2.93

4

.79

1.79

1.58

7.44

3.45

.97

3.07
3.17

.46

.49

)THER U.S. SERIES WITH BUSINESS
CYCLE SIGNIFICANCE
h. Fed. cash surplus or deficit.... Ann. rate,
bil. dol... 5.60
i . Free reserves
Mil. dol....104.23
>. Change in money supply. ......... Ann. rate,
percent.... 2.78
t. Change in money supply and time
..do
2.52
Ann. rate,
bil. dol... 1.22
. Change, consumer installment
.85
debt
..do
>. Merchandise trade balance
Mil. dol.... 58.96

5.46
82.19

52.77

5.64
1.56

9
2

.79
.95

1.54
2.03

1.47
1.52

6.09
10.31

2.81

.42

6.75

11

.82

1.45

1.48

6.18

3.32

5.29

.97

1.51

1.45

6.80

1.19

.26

4.51

5

.93

1.47

1.47

6.22

2.48

.34

2.19
3.23

3
3

.78
.93

1.71
1.82

1.55
1.61

9.00
11.30

3.24
2.64

.75

a 6-term moving average

The measures in the above table are computed by an ad:ive method to avoid the distortion caused by zero and




.48

2.60

56.60

NOTE: Measures are computed for the period, January
53 to mid-1964, except for series 88 and 112. For series
, the period ends with June 1962 and for series 112, the
*iod begins with August 1959.
1
Where MCD is larger than "6",
used as the MCD curve.

2.52

7

17.50

negative data. Thus, "CI" is the average month-to-month
change in the seasonally adjusted series. This average is
computed without regard to sign and is expressed in the
same unit of measure as the series itself. "C" is the same
for the cyclical component, which is a moving average of
the seasonally adjusted series. "T" is the same for the
irregular component, which is determined by subtracting
the cyclical component from the seasonally adjusted series.
All other measures shown above have the same meaning as in
part 1.

66

Appendixes

Appendix D.--CURRENT SEASONAL ADJUSTMENT FACTORS FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES ADJUSTED BY BUREAU OF THE CENSUS OR NBE
(NOVEMBER 1963 TO DECEMBER 1964)

lc263

19<

Series

^
Nov. Dec. Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May

4. Temporary layoff, all industries.
5. Avg. weekly initial claims,
State unemployment insurance ....
13. New business incorporations1
!/.. Liabilities of business failures.

86.7

103.1
82.3
102.5
94.3

95.9 144.5 107.7 98.9

133.7
97.5
78.5
85.7

142.1
116.3
110.3
111.7

109.5
96.3
101.7
112.8

94.4
110.0
103.5
115.0

86.6
93.8
106.9
114.6
109.1

June

July

Aug. Sept.

84.0 76.7 98.3 146.0
83.0
102.9
103.3
99.7

82.9
106.7
94.4
104.7

Oct. Nov. De

82.4 90.7 86.6

104.7 85.5 78.7
108.2 90.5 92.5
82.7 124.9 91.0
87.6 95.9 90.3

89.0
99.0
92.0
93.5

95

103.0 134
82.3 102
102.6 77
94.3
^

17. Ratio, price to unit labor

101.1
18. Profits per dol. of sales, mfg.2. 100.8
1
30. Nonagri. placements, all indus. . 93.1
37. Purchased materials, percent reporting higher inventories
95.1
55. Wholesale prices, except farm
100.0

97.7 98.0
81.1

82.6

99.4 100.0 100.3 100.8 102.3 96.2 99.1 101.7 103.3 101.1 Q7
97.6
100.8
106.2
94.7
77.4 92.0 103.6 107.4 110.8 105.0 111.0 124.4 112.6 93.3 82

96.7 109.6 107.4 109.3 109.1 106.3

92.1

92.8

91.6

93.7

100.2 100 . 2100.1 100.1 100.0 100.0 99.9 99.9

99.9

99.9 100.1 100.0 100

96.7

95.1

Q6

62. Labor cost per unit of output,
98.9
100.2
82. Federal cash payments to public.. 103.1
83. Federal cash receipts from pub... 101.9
90. Defense Department obligations —
92.8

102.3
99.9
98.5
106.4

102.3
99.9
91.9
69.3

102.7

85.8

90.3 99.6
91. Defense Dept. oblig. , total
92. Military contract awards in U.S.. 84.8 94.5
100.8 101.7
128. Japan, index of industrial pro99.0 102.0

100.6
100.0
96.2
112.1

99.9
100.0
93.7
126.6

99.4
99.9
99.0
79.0

99.0
99.8
103.7
121.6

97.6
99.9
102.9
149.8

103.9
100.2
96.6
48.9

85.7 102.5 79.7 72.3 207.0 89.6

100.8
100.0
115.0
115.1

97.9
100.2
93.8
123.5

96.9
100.2
105.7
46.1

98.9 10?
100.2 qq
102.9 98
102.0 106

89.2

97.1

95.8

92.9 10?

92.2 85.7 108.0 94.6 86.2 147.1 101.1 94.3
91.5 83.3 124.8 84.0 89.6 197.9 69.9 88.0
100.2 99.4 100.4 100.7 100.1 99.7 99.1 98.7

98.1 103.6 90.3 qq
99.0 93.9 84.8 94
99.3 99.8 100.9 101

94.7 100.9 108.4 100.3 100.5 99.4 99.1 96.8 99.1 100.3 99.0

in?

These data are not published by the source agency in seasonally adjusted form.
Seasonal adjustments were made by t
Bureau of the Census or the National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. Seasonally adjusted data prepared by the sour
agency will be substituted whenever they are published.
factors are a combination of seasonal and trading-day factors.
Quarterly series; figures are placed in middle month of quarter.
3
Factors apply to total series before month-to-month changes are computed.




Appendixes

67

Appendix E.-PERCENT CHANGE FOR SELECTED SERIES OVER CONTRACTION AND EXPANSION PERIODS OF BUSINESS CYCLES:
1920 TO 1961

Percent change: Reference peak to reference trough
Contractions:
Reference peak to
reference trough

41. Employees
in nonagri. establishments

47. Index
of industrial
production

50. GNP 49. GNP 51. Bank
in 1954 in cur- debits
dollars rent
outside
dollars NYC
(Q)1
1
(Q)

43. Unemployment rate

52. Personal
income

54. Retail
sales

Change
Rate at Rate at
in rate, peak
trough
peak to
trough
2
4.0
2

2

Jan. 1920-July 1921
May 1923- July 1924
Oct. 1926-Nov. 1927....
Aug. 1929-Mar. 1933
May 1937- June 1938

NA
NA
NA
-31.6
-10.4

-31.6
-18.0
-5.9
-51.8
-31.7

NA
-0.3
+2.3
-28.0
-8.9

-19.7
-2.3
+0.4
-49.6
-11.9

-22.5
-3.1
+8.7
-61.9
-16.5

-21.9
0.0
+0.9
-50.8
-10.9

-6.2
0.0
0.0
-47.4
-18.5

+7.9
2+2.3
2
+2.2
+25.4
+8.8

Feb. 1945-Oct. 194. 54
Nov 1948 Oct. 1949
July 1953 Aug 1954s • •
July 1957-Apr. 1958
May 1960-Feb 1961 . .
Median:6

-7.8
-5.1
-3.4
-3.9
-1.9

-31.4
-8.5
-9.1
-14.1
-5.7

NA
-1.4
-3.0
-3.8
-1.8

-10.9
-3.3
-1.8
-2.5
-0.5

-1.0
-4.0
+1.6
-3.1
+2.4

-4.0
-4.3
-0.2
-0.3
+1.0

+9.9
0.0
-0.7
-1.6
-1.9

+2.2
+4.1
+3.5
+3.2
+1.7

-5.6

-16.0

-2.4

-2.9

-3.1

-2.2

-1.2

-6.5

-16.0

-2.3

-2.9

-3.6

-2.3

-3.6

-8.8

-2.4

-2.2

-0.8

-0.2

2

3.2
2
1.9
3
0.0
11.2

11.9
2
5.5
2
4.1
25.4
20.0

1.1
3.8
2.6
4.2
5.2

3.3
7.9
6.1
7.4
6.9

+3.4

3.5

7.2

-1.8

+3.6

3.9

7.6

-1.2

+3.4

4.0

7.2

3

Excluding postwar con4 contractions since
1948

Percent change:
Expansions:
Reference trough
to reference peak

41 Employees
in nonagri. establishments

43. Unemployment rate

Reference trough to reference peak

47. Index
of industrial
production

50. GNP
in 1954
dollars
(Q)1

49 GNP 51. Bank
in cur- debits
rent
outside
dollars NYC
1
(Q)

52. Per- 54- Retail
sonal
income
sales

Change
Rate at Rate at
in rate, trough
peak
trough
to peak
2
-8.7
2

2

2

1921-May 1923
1924-Oct. 1926
1927-Aug. 1929
1933-May 1937
1938 Feb 19454

NA
NA
NA
+40.2
+45.9

+64.2
+30.4
+24.1
+119.9
+183.3

NA
+12.4
+12.6
+42.1
NA

+25.1
+14.7
+13.3
+73.9
+169.6

+23.5
+18.9
+20.4
+78.4
+131.7

+29.6
+13.2
+12.2
+76.3
+157.3

+13.3
+8.8
+2.7
+85.6
+102.0

-3.6
2
-0.9
-14.2
-18.9

11.9
2
5.5
2
4.1
25.4
20.0

Dct 1945-Nov 1948.
Dct 1949 July 1953s
lug 1954 July 1957
\pr 1958-May I960
Median:6

+17.2
+17.8
+3.9
+6.8

+21.9
+50.0
+19.7
+25.2

+3.3
+27.4
+13.5
fll.9

+34.9
+43.5
+23.8
+15.3

+51.5
+49.3
+28.6
+21.2

+28.5
+41.5
+22.8
+13.6

+59.7
+26.3
+20.9
+10.8

-»0.3
-5.3
-1.9
-2.2

3.3
7.9
6.1
7.4

+17.5

+35.2

+12.8

+27.9

+33.8

+27.0

+19.9

-3.7

7.1

3.3

+13.0

+26.6

+12.5

+21.4

+24.4

+21.6

+14.7

-2.6

6.3

3.7

+13.0

+23.6

+12.7

+29.4

+39.0

+25.6

+23.2

-2.0

6.8

3.9

July
July
NIov.
4ar.
June

3.2

2
1.9
23

3.2
11.2
1.1

3

3.6
2.6
4.2
5.2

Excluding wartime ex4 expansions since
1945

For series with a "months for cyclical dominance" (MCD) of "1" or "2" (series 41, 43, 47, 52, and 54), the figure for
the reference peak (trough) month is used as the base. For series with an MCD of "3" or more (series 51), the average of
the 3 months centered on the reference peak (trough) month is used as the base. The base for quarterly series (series 49
and 50) is the reference peak (trough) quarter. See also MCD footnote to appendix C.
•"•The most recent quarterly reference dates are as follows: 2d quarter 1958 (trough); 2d quarter 1960 (peak); and 1st
quarter 1961 (trough). For earlier dates, see Business Cycle Indicators (NBER), vol. 1, p. 670.
2
Based on average for the calendar year.
3
Differs from figure for same date in expansion (contraction) part of table because of change in series used.
4
World War II contraction or expansion period.
5
Korean War contraction or expansion period.
6
The median is an average of the middle 2 or 3 items.
Source: National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.




Appendixes

68

Appendix F.--HISTORICAL DATA FOR SELECTED SERIES
Each month historical data are presented for certain series that either have not been shown here previously or have been
revised historically.
The months of issue for series previously included in this appendix are given in the index.
Current data are shown in tables 2, 4, and 5. Data are seasonally adjusted.
Year

Jan.

1

Feb.
1.

Mar.

Apr.

May

June

July

Aug.

Sept.

Oct.

Nov.

Dec.

Average workweek of production workers, manufacturing (Hours per production worker)

1948
1949
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954

40.4
39.3
39.7
40.9
40.6
41.0
39.5

40.2
39.4
39.7
40.8
40.7
40.9
39.7

40.3
39.0
39.7
41.0
40.6
41.1
39.4

40.2
38.6
40.1
41.2
40.1
41.0
39.3

40.3
38.8
40.2
40.9
40.4
40.9
39.6

40.2
38.9
40.5
40.7
40.5
40.7
39.5

40.0
39.1
40.9
40.6
40.2
40.6
39.7

40.1
39.1
41.1
40.3
40.5
40.5
39.7

39.8
39.5
40.7
40.4
41.1
39.7
39.5

39.8
39.5
40.9
40.1
41.1
40.1
39.6

39.8
39.1
41.1
40.4
41.0
39.7
40.0

39.5
39.3
40.9
40.6
41.1
39.6
40.0

1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
1960

40.3
40.8
40.4
38.8
40.1
40.6

40.5
40.6
40.4
38.6
40.2
40.1

40.7
40.4
40.3
38.7
40.4
39.9

40.6
,40.6
40.2
38.6
40.6
39.7

41.0
40.2
39.8
38.7
40.5
40.0

40.6
40.1
39.9
39.1
40.5
39.9

40.6
40.3
39.9
39.2
40.2
39.9

40.5
40.1
39.8
39.4
40.3
39.6

40.7
40.5
39.7
39.6
40.1
39.4

40.9
40.5
39.3
39.5
40.1
39.6

41.0
40.3
39.2
39.8
39.9
39.3

40.9
40.6
39.0
39.8
40.2
38.3

1948
1949
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954

5.6
3.9
4.5
6.4
5.3
5.5
3.5

6.5
3.9
4.3
6.2
5.3
5.7
3.4

5.4
4.0
4.8
6.0
5.0
5.7
3.6

5.4
4.0
4.8
6.0
5.0
5.7
3.1

5.3
4.4
5.5
5.5
4.9
5.0
3.3

6.2
4.7
5.0
5.2
5.1
5.2
3.5

5.6
4.2
5.7
5.0
5.3
4.9
3.5

5.2
4.5
6.5
4.4
5.9
4.5
3.4

5.2
4.3
6.0
4.5
5.9
4.1
3.6

5.0
4.1
5.8
5.0
5.8
3.7
4.0

4.9
4.3
5.3
5.3
5.4
3.7
4.6

4.4
5.2
5.0
5.0
5.8
3.7
4.3

1955..
1956
1957
1958
1959
I960

4.1
4.2
4.0
3.1
4.0
4.2

4.3
4.2
3.9
3.1
4.3
4.1

4.7
4.0
3.7
3.2
4.6
3.7

4.5
4.3
3.7
3.3
4.3
3.6

4.6
4.2
3.6
3.5
4.1
3.8

4.3
4.0
3.8
3.7
4.2
3.7

4.2
4.0
3.9
3.9
4.1
3.6

4.6
3.9
3.3
3.9
4.1
3.9

4.5
4.2
3.3
4.0
4.0
3.8

4.6
4.8
3.3
3.9
3.8
3.5

4.7
4.3
3.1
3.9
4.2
3.7

4.3
4.0
3.0
4.2
5.6
3.6

2. Accession rate, manufacturing (Per 100 employees)

3. Layoff rate, manufacturing (Per 100 employees)

1948;
1949
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954

1.4
2.8
1.9
1.0
1.5
0.9
2.9

1.9
2.5
1.9
1.0
1.5
1.0
2.7

1.4
3.3
1.7
1.0
1.4
1.0
2.8

1.4
3.2
1.4
1.1
1.5
1.0
2.8

1.1
3.5
1.2
1.3
1.3
1.2
2.3

1.3
3.1
1.1
1.3
1.5
1.2
2.4

1.6
3.0
0.8
1.8
3.1
1.5
2.2

1.8
2.6
0.8
1.9
1.3
1.6
2.2

1.4
2.6
1.0
1.8
1.0
2.0
2.1

1.5
2.8
1.1
1.7
0.9
2.2
1.9

1.7
2.8
1.2
1.8
0.8
2.4
1.7

2.3
2.1
1.2
1.5
1.0
2.5
1.8

1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
I960

1.5
1.6
1.5
3.4
1.8
1.5

1.4
2.3
1.7
3.3
1.7
1.9

1.5
1.8
1.6
3.4
1.7
2.3

1.4
1.6
1.7
3.3
1.7
2.3

1.4
2.1
2.0
3.0
1.6
2.3

1.7
1.9
1.7
2.4
1.7
2.5

1.9
1.7
1.8
2.5
1.9
2.4

1.6
1.5
2.1
2.3
2.0
2.6

1.4
1.8
2.3
2.1
2.0
2.5

1.5
1.5
2.7
2.1
2.9
2.6

1.3
1.6
3.0
1.9
2.5
2.7

1.4
1.5
2.7
1.9
1.9
2.8

41. Number of employees in nonagri cultural establishments (Thous.)

1948
1949
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954

44,658
44,622
43,467
47,267
48,268
50,084
49,384

44,541
44,445
43,192
47,518
48,456
50,320
49,310

44,662
44,214
43,871
47,725
48,473
50,398
49,117

44,342
44,058
44,276
47,890
48,494
50,418
49,017

44,659
43,848
44,607
47,829
48,538
50,394
48,875

44,925
43,626
44,995
47,951
48,142
50,416
48,812

45,124
43,457
45,387
47,951
47,986
50,413
48,715

45,040
43,506
46,064
47,815
48,705
50,304
48,680

45,143
43,671
46,298
47,770
49,146
50,173
48,737

45,087
42,811
46,522
47,815
49,451
50,115
48,843

45,094
43,163
46,652
48,049
49,719
49,845
49,134

45,051
43,525
46,784
48,188
49,993
49,673
49,287

1955
1956.
1957
1958
1959
I960

49,394
51,922
52,858
52,058
52,449
54.224

49,573
52,145
53,058
51,484
52,592
54,433

49,871
52,168
53,115
51,189
52,903
54,389

50,130
52,305
53,065
50,916
53,243
54,555

50,452
52,415
53,040
50,822
53,456
54,389

50,737
52,500
52,987
50,865
53,630
54,299

50,854
51,814
53,003
50,946
53,715
54,220

50,941
52,459
53,023
51,168
53,245
54,199

51,098
52,429
52,799
51,421
53,282
54,077

51,306
52,681
52,680
51,403
53,206
53,980

51,534
52,778
52,515
51,893
53,537
53,852

51,774
52,935
52,342
52,029
54,058
53,577




Appendixes

69

Appendix F.-HISTORICAL DATA FOR SELECTED SERIES-Continued

Lach month historical data are presented for certain series that either have not been shown here previously or have been
revised historically.
The months of issue for series previously included in this appendix are given in the index.
Current data are shown in tables 2, 4> and $. Data are seasonally adjusted.
Year

Jan.

Feb.

Mar.

Apr.

May

June

July

Aug.

Sept.

Oct.

Nov.

Dec.

85. Percent change in total U.S. money supply (Annual rate, percent)
1948
1.949
[950
[.951
1952
[953
L954

3.24
-3.24
3.24
5.16
3.96
-0.96
1.92

-2.16
0.00
6.48
4.08
4.92
0.96
0.96

-6.36
0.00
4.32
5.16
1.92
5.64
0.96

-3.24
1.08
7.44
2.04
2.88
2.76
-5.52

-2.16
2.16
5.28
4.08
3.84
1.92
10.32

-1.08
-2.16
4.20
4.08
4.80
0.00
1.80

2.16
-1.08
5.28
5.04
2.88
0.96
3.72

1.08
-2.16
4.20
5.04
3.84
0.96
3.72

-1.08
-1.08
2.04
8.04
6.72
-0.96
1.80

-1.08
0.00
5.16
6.00
2.88
0.96
5.52

-3.24
1.08
2.04
9.96
3.84
0.00
5.52

-3.24
2.16
3.12
6.84
2.88
0.96
1.80

[955
1956
957
958
L959
L960

6.36
2.64
0.00
-3 .48
4.20
-3.36

8.16
0.00
-0.84
6.24
2.52
-4.20

-2.64
1.80
0.84
2.64
5.04
-2.52

2.64
2.64
0.00
4.44
1.68
-0.84

6.24
-1.80
0.84
4.32
4.20
-4.32

-1.80
1.80
-0.84
7.80
1.68
-1.68

3.60
0.00
0.84
0.00
5.88
2.52

0.00
-2.64
0.84
6.12
-4.20
4.32

1.80
4.44
-2.64
3.48
-2.52
1.68

1.80
0.84
-2.64
5.16
-3.36
0.00

-2.64
2.64
-1.80
6.84
-0.84
-1.68

2.64
2.64
-3.48
1.68
-5.88
1.68

98. Percent change in money supply and time deposits (Annual rate, percent)
[948
1.949
L9$o
1951
952
953
954

3.24
-1.68
2.40
3.96
4.44
1-44
3.48

0.00
0.00
6.48
2.40
6.00
2.16
3.48

-4.80
0.00
3.24
3.96
3.00
6.36
3.48

-2.40
1.68
6.48
2.28
3.72
3.48
-0.72

-1.68
2.40
5.64
3.84
4.44
3.48
10.32

0.00
-0.84
3.24
3.84
5.16
1.44
3.36

1.68
-0.84
3.12
6.12
3.60
2.76
6.12

1.68
-1.68
2.40
5.40
5.04
2.76
6.12

-0.84
-0.84
0.84
8.40
7.20
1.44
2.04

-0.84
0.00
3.12
5.28
3.60
3.48
5.40

-1.68
0.84
2.40
9.12
5.76
2.04
4.68

-2.40
1.68
3.12
6.72
3.60
2.76
2.04

955
956
957
958
959
960

6.00
1.32
4.44
-1.20
6.36
-3.48

7.32
0.00
2.52
14.28
1.68
-4-56

-1.32
2.64
4.44
9.84
4.56
-1.20

3.24
3.24
1.92
9.12
2.88
1.20

4.56
-0.60
3.72
7.80
3.48
-2.28

0.00
3.24
1.20
10.80
3.48
1.68

3.24
1.32
3.72
4.80
4.56
6.36

0.00
0.00
3.12
7.68
-2.28
8.64

3.24
5.16
0.60
3.48
-1.08
5.64

1.92
1.32
1.20
4.08
-2.28
4.56

-0.60
3.24
1.20
6.48
-0.60
3.36

2.64
2.52
0.00
2.28
-3.48
5.64







Index

Series
number 1

1

SERIES INDEX TO CHARTS, TABLES, AND APPENDIXES
(Page numbers)
Charts

1

2

3

Appendixes

Tables

4

5

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

A

B2

C

D

F3

E2

G

Page Issue Page

1...
2...
3...
4...
5...
6...
7...
9...

8
8
8
8
8
9
9
9

0...
1...
2...
3...
4...
5...
6...
7...
3...
9...

9
9
10
10
10
10

0...
1...
2...
3...
4...
5...
6...
9...

12
12
11
12
9
12
12
9

0...
1...
2...
7...

8
12
12
12

3...
1...
2...
3...
5...
6...
7...
9...

13
13
13
13
13
13
14
14

D...
1...
2...
3...
4...
5...
7...
3...

14
15
15
15
15
15
U

50

••

••

51

11
11
11
11

16
16
16
5... 16
S. . . 16
7... 16
}... 16

55
••

51

55

51

56

51
50

56
55

50

••

52

57

52

57

53
53

57
56

•.

L...

2m . .

50

55

53
53
••
52
52

56
57

54
54
54

••
••

1

54

••

6
6
6
6
6
6
6
6

22
22
22
22
22
22
23
23

6
6
6
6
6
6
6
6
6
6

23
23
23
23
24
24
24
24
24
24

6
6
6
6
6
6
6
6

25
24
24
25
22
25
25
23

6
6
6
6

22
25
25
25

6
6
6
6
6
6
6
6

26
26
26
26
26
26
26
27

6
6
6
6
6
6
6

26
27
27
27
27
27
27

••

7
7
7
7
7
7
7

28
28
28
28
28
28
28

••

f

^

00

••




mt

••
••

••

58
58
58

59
59
59
59
59
59

60

62

••

60

••

62

62
62
62
62
62
62
62
62
62
63

••

..

••

..

58
58

59
59
59
59

60

59

60

• «-

..

..

..

58
58

••

••

••

••

58

60

••
••
••

62

62
62

62
62
62
63
62
63
62

••
65
65

••

••

••

65
65
65
••
65
65

64
••

••

..
••

••

••

58
53

59
59

60
60

••

62
62

••

••

58

59

60

••

62

••

••

••

••

58

59

60

••

62

••

••

••

••

58

59

60

••

62

58
58

59
59

60
60

62
62

58
58
58

59
59
59

60

62

••

••
••

••

••

••

..

••

••
••

••

..

••

••

60
60
60

58
58

59
59

58
58
58

59
59
59

••

58
58

59
59

••

••

62
62
62

••
••
••

••

••

63
62
62
64
'62
62
62
64
62
62

See back cover for series titles and sources.
Before May 1964, this appendix was "G".

3

t f

58
58
58

63
62
62
62
62
62
63
63
62
62
62
62
63
63

12-64
12-64
12-64
11-63
7-63
5-64
6-64

68 11-64
63 6-64
66 8-63
66 11-63
66 3-64
64 6-64
68 6-63
64 6-64
66 4-64
64 6-64
64 6-64
65 6-64
66 1-64
66 12-63
66 12-63
65 6-64
63 6-64

••

••

••
••
••

••

66 10-63
65 6-64
66 3-64
68 6-63

65
65

62
62
62
62
62
62
62
63

68
68
68
66
66
65
63

Issue

67
67
67
67
67
67
67
67
65

65
••

68 8-64
68 12-64
68 8-64
66 2-64
66 3-64
66 2-64
70 9-64
68 8-64

••

••

69 8-64
69 8-64
69 8-64
66 10-63
66 10-63
69 8-64
70 8-64
66 4-64
65 6-64
68 6-63
66 6-64
66 6-64
70 8-64
70 8-64
66 4-64

••
••
••

2

Page number shown is for August 1964 issue.

71

Index

72

Series
number 1

SERIES INDEX TO CHARTS, TABLES, AND APPENDIXES-Continued
(Page numbers)

Charts

1

2

3

4

Appendixes

Tables

5

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

A

B

C

D

F2

E

G

Page Issue Page Issue

••

;:

12-64
9-64
9-64
9-64
9-64 ••

••

81...
82...
83...
84...
85...
86...
87...
88...
89...

20
17
17
17
18
20
20
20
20

7
7
7
7
7
7
7
7
7

32
29
29
29
30
32
32
32
32

63
62
62
64
64
63
63
64

65
65
65

90...
91...
92...
93...
94...
95...
96...
97...
98...
99...

17
17
17
18
20
17
20
20
18
17

7
7
7
7
7
7
7
7
7
7

29
29
29
30
32
29
32
32
30
29

62
62
62
64
63

65
65
65

63
63
64
62

66
66
68
69
66

10-64
6-64
11-64
12-64
10-64

110 . .
111..
112..
113..
114..
115..
116..
117..
118..

18
18
18
18
19
19
19
19
19

7
7
7
7
7
7
7
7
7

30
30
30
31
31
31
31
31
31

63
63
64
64
62
62
62
62
62

71
68
71
71
71
72
72
72
72

7-64
11-64
7-64
7-64
7-64
7-64
7-64
7-64
7-64

121..
122..
123..
125..
126..
127..
128..

21
21
21
21
21
21
21

33
33
33
33
33
33
33

63
63
63
63
63
63
63

66
67
67
67
67
68
68

10-64
10-64
10-64
10-64
10-64
10-64
10-64

Dl...
D5...
D6...
Dll..
D19..
D23..
D34..
D35..
D36..
D41..
D47..
D48..
D54..
D58..
D61..

••

•.

••

••

••

35
35
35
35
35
35
35
•.

38
39
38
38
39
39
39




43
44

46
47

40
40
41

37

36
36

48
49

40
40
37

•'•See back cover for series titles and sources.
Before May 1964, this appendix was "G".

2

..

41
41

37
37

36
36

..

45
42

41

••

70

••

••

65

••

65

8-64

••

69
69
69
69
69

70 9-64
70 9-64
70 9-64
66 10-64

73
73
73
73
74
74
74
74
74

68 10-64
68 10-64
69 10-64

7-64
7-64
7-64
7-64
7-64
7-64
7-64
7-64
7-64

••

69 10-64
69 10-64
69 10-64
70
70
70
70
69
70
70
69

11-64
11-64
10-64
10-64 . •
11-64
10-64
10-64 • •
11-64

••

TITLES AND SOURCES OF PRINCIPAL BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES AND DIFFUSION INDEXES
The numbers assigned to the series are for identification purposes only and do not necessarily reflect series relationships or order. "M" indicates monthly series and"Q" indicates quarterly series. Data apply to the whole period except for series designated by "EOM" or "EOQ".
"EOM" indicates that data are for the end of the month and "EOQ" indicates that data are for the end of the quarter. The general classification of series follows the approach of the National Bureau of Economic Research. The series preceded by an asterisk(*) were included
in the 1960 NBER list of 26 indicators.
30 NBER LEADING INDICATORS
*1. Average workweek of production workers, m a n u f a c t u r i n g (M).—
Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics
*2. Accession rate, manufacturing (M).--Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics
*3. Layoff rate, manufacturing (M).--Department of Labor, Bureau of
Labor Statistics
4. Number of persons on temporary layoff, all industries (M).—
Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics; seasonal
adjustment by Bureau of the Census
5. Average weekly i n i t i a l c l a i m s for unemployment insurance,
State programs (M).--Department of Labor, Bureau of Employment Security; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the
Census
*6. Value of manufacturers' new orders, durable goods industries
(M).—Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
*7. New private nonfarm dwelling units started (M).—Department of
Commerce, Bureau of the Census
*9. Construction contracts awarded for commercial and industrial
b u i l d i n g s , floor space (M).--F. W. Dodge Corporation; seasonal
adjustment by Bureau of the Census and National Bureau of
Economic Research, Inc.
10. Contracts and orders for plant and equipment (M).—Department of
Commerce, Bureau of the Census, and F. W. Dodge Corporation;
seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census and National
Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
11. Newly approved capital appropriations, 1,000 manufacturing corporations (Q).--National Industrial Conference Board; component industries are seasonally adjusted and added to obtain
seasonally adjusted total
*12. Net change in the business population, operating businesses
(Q).--Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
13. Number of new business incorporations (M).--Dun and Bradstreet,
Inc.; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census and National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
*14. Current l i a b i l i t i e s of business failures (M).--Dun and Bradstreet,
Inc.; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census and National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
15. Number of business f a i l u r e s with l i a b i l i t i e s of $100,000 and
over (M).--Dun and Bradstreet, Inc.; seasonal adjustment by
Bureau of the Census and National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
* 16. Corporate profits after taxes (Q).—Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
17. Price per unit of labor cost index-ratio, wholesale prices of
manufactured goods index to index of compensation of employees (sum of wages, salaries, and supplements to wages and
salaries) per unit of output (M).-Department of Commerce,
Office of Business Economics; Department of Labor, Bureau
Labor Statistics; and Board of Governors of the Federal
Reserve System; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census
18. Profits (before taxes) per dollar of sales, all manufacturing corporations (Q). —Federal Trade Commission and Securities and
Exchange Commission; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the
Census
*19. Index of stock prices, 500 common stocks (M).--Standard and
Poor's Corporation; no seasonal adjustment
20. Change in book value of manufacturers' inventories of materials
and supplies (M).—Department of Commerce, Bureau of the
Census
*21. Change in business inventories, farm and nonfarm, after valuation adjustment (GNP component) (Q).--Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
22. Ratio of profits (after taxes) to income or iginoting, corporate, a l l
industries (Q).-Department of Commerce, Office of Business
Economics
*23. index of industrial materials prices (M).—Department of Labor,
Bureau of Labor Statistics; no seasonal adjustment
24. Value of manufacturers' new orders, machinery and equipment
industries(M).—Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
25* Change in manufacturers' u n f i l l e d orders, durable goods industries (M).—Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
26. B u y i n g policy-production materials, percent reporting commitments 60 days or longer (M).--National Association of Purchasing Agents; no seasonal adjustment
29. Index of new private housing units authorized by local b u i l d i n g
permits (M).—Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census




30. Nonagricuitural placements, all industries (M).—Department of
Labor, Bureau of Employment Security; seasonal adjustment
by Bureau of the Census
31. Change in book value of manufacturing and trade inventories,
total (M). —Department of Commerce, Office of Business
Economics
32. V'endor performance, percent reporting slower deliveries (M).—
Chicago Purchasing Agents Association; no seasonal adjustment
37. Percent reporting higher inventories, purchased mater ials(M).-National Association of Purchasing Agents; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census
15 NBER ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
40. Unemployment rate, married males, spouse present (M).--Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics
Ml. Number of employees in nonagricuitural establishments (M).Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics
42. Total nonagricuitural employment, labor force survey (M).-Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, and Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
*43. Unemployment rate, total (M).-Department of Labor, Bureau of
Labor Statistics, and Department of Commerce, Bureau of the
Census
45. Average weekly insured unemployment rate, State programs
(M).-Department of Labor, Bureau of Employment Security
46. Index of help-wanted advertising in newspapers (M).-National
Industrial Conference Board and B. K. Davis and Bro. Advertising Service
*47. Index of industrial production (M).--Board of Governors of the
Federal Reserve System
*49. Gross national product in current dollars (Q).-Department of
Commerce, Office of Business Economics
*50. Gross national product in 1954 dollars (Q).-Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
*51. Bank debits outside New York City, 343 centers (M).-Board of
Governors of the Federal Reserve System
*5Z Personal income (M).—Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
53. Labor income in m i n i n g , manufacturing, and construction (M).-Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
*54. Sales of retail stores (M).—Department of Commerce, Bureau of
the Census
*55. Index of wholesale prices, all commodities, other than farm
products and foods (M).-Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor
Statistics; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census
57. Final sales (series 49 minus series 21) (Q).-Department of
Commerce, Office of Business Economics
7 NBER LAGGING INDICATORS
*6l. Business expenditures on new plant and equipment, total (Q).-Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics; and
the Securities and Exchange Commission
*62. Index of labor cost per unit of output, total manufacturingratio, index of compensation of employees in manufacturing
(the sum of wages and salaries and supplements to wages and
salaries) to index of industrial production, manufacturing
(M).—Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics,
and the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System;
seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census
*64. Book value of manufacturers' inventories, all manufacturing industries (EOM).—Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
65* Book value of manufacturers' inventories of finished goods, all
manufacturing industries (EOM).—Department of Commerce,
Bureau of the Census
*66. Consumer installment debt (EOM).--Board of Governors of the
Federal Reserve System. FRS seasonally adjusted net change
added to seasonally adjusted figure for previous month to obtain current figure
*67. Bonk rates on short-term business loans, 19 cities (Q).— Board
of Governors of the Federal Reserve System; no seasonal adjustment
68. Index of labor cost per dollar of real corporate gross national
product (ratio of compensation of employees in corporate enterprises to value of corporate product in 1954 dollars) ((^."Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics, National
Income Division
Continued on reverse

UNITED STATES
GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE
DIVISION OF PUBLIC DOCUMENTS

PAYMENT OF POSTAGE, *3OO
(GPO)

WASHINGTON, D. C.
OFFICIAL BUSINESS

FIRST CLASS MAIL

TITLES AND SOURCES OF PRINCIPAL BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES AND DIFFUSION INDEXES-Con.
28 OTHER U.S. SERIES WITH BUSINESS
CYCLE SIGNIFICANCE
81. Index of consumer prices (M).--Department of Labor, Bureau of
Labor Statistics; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census

112. Net change in bank loans to businesses (M).—Board of Gover-

nors of the Federal Reserve System; seasonal adjustment by
Bureau of the Census
113. Net change in consumer installment debt

(M). -- Board of Gov-

ernors of the Federal Reserve System
114*

Discount rate on new issues of 91-day Treasury bills (M).—

Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System; no seasonal adjustment
115. Yield on long-term Treasury bonds (M)..Treasury Department;

no seasonal adjustment

83. Federal cash receipts from the public (M).—Treasury Department, Bureau of Accounts. Monthly seasonal adjustments by
the Bureau of the Census do not equal quarterly totals of the
official seasonally adjusted series because of differences in
the method of seasonal adjustment.
84. Federal cash surplus or deficit (M).—Treasury Department, Bureau of Accounts. Monthly seasonal adjustments by the Bureau of the Census do not equal quarterly totals of the official seasonally adjusted series because of differences in
the method of seasonal adjustment.

116. Yield on new issues of high-grade corporate bonds (M).— First

National City Bank of New York and Treasury Department;
no seasonal adjustment
117. Yield on municipal bonds, 20-bond average (M).-The Bond

Buyer; no seasonal adjustment

118. Secondary market yields on FHA mortgages (M).—Federal Hous-

ing Administration; no seasonal adjustment
7 INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS OF
INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION

85. Percent change in total U.S. money supply (demand deposits

plus currency) (M).-- Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System

121. Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, Euro-

86. Exports, excluding military aid shipments, total (M).--Depart-

122. United Kingdom, index of industrial production (M).—Central

ment of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
87. General imports, total (M).--Department of Commerce, Bureau of
the Census
88. Merchandise trade balance (series 86 minus series 87) (M).--De-

partment of Commerce, Bureau of the Census

pean Countries, index of industrial production (M). —Organization for Kconomic Cooperation and Development
Statistical Office (London)
123. Canada, index of industrial production (M).—Dominion Bureau

of Statistics (Ottawa)
125. West Germany, index of industrial production (M).—Deutsche

Bundesbank (Frankfurt)

89. Excess of receipts or payments in U.S. balance of payments

(Q).--Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics

126.

France, index of industrial production (M).—Statistical Office
(Paris)

127.

Italy, index of industrial production (M).—Organization for Eco-

90. Defense Department obligations, procurement (M).--Department

of Defense, Fiscal Analysis Division; seasonal adjustment by
Bureau of the Census
91. Defense Department obligations, total (M).--Department of De-

fense, Fiscal Analysis Division; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census
92. Military prime contract awards, U.S. business firms (M).--De-

partment of Defense, Directorate for Statistical Services; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census

nomic Cooperation and Development
128. Japan, index of industrial

production (M).—Ministry of Interna-

tional Trade and Industry (Tokyo); seasonal adjustment by
compiler and Bureau of the Census
...

United States, index of industrial production (M).—See series
47.

93. Free reserves (member bank excess reserves minus borrowings)

(M).--Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System; no
seasonal adjustment
DIFFUSION INDEXES

94. Index of construction contracts, total value (M). —F. W. Dodge

Corporation
95. Surplus or deficit. Federal income and product account (Q).--De-

partment of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
96. Manufacturers'unfilled orders, durable goods industries (EOM).—

Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
97. Bocklog of capital appropriations, manufacturing(EOQ).--National

Industrial Conference Board; component industries are seasonally adjusted and added to obtain seasonally adjusted total

The "D" preceding a number indicates a diffusion index. Diffusion
indexes and corresponding business cycle series bear the same
number and are obtained from the same sources. See sources above
for Dl, D5, D6, D l l , D19, D23, D41, D47, D54, and D61. Sources for
other diffusion indexes are as follows:
D34. Profits, Manufacturing, FNCB (Q).--First National City Bank

98. Percent change in total U.S. money supply (demand deposits

and currency) and commercial bank time deposits (M).-Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
99. New orders, defense products (M).-Department of Commerce,
Bureau of the Census
110. Total funds raised by private nonfinancial borrowers in credit

markets (Q).—Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve
System
111. Gross retained earnings of nonfinancial corporations (Q).--

Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System




D35.
D36.
D48.
D58.

of New York; no seasonal adjustment of series components.
Diffusion indexes are seasonally adjusted by National
Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
Net sales, total manufactures (Q).—Dun and Bradstreet, Inc.;
no seasonal adjustment
New orders, durable manufactures (Q).--Dun and Bradstreet,
Inc.; no seasonal adjustment
Freight carloadings (Q). —Association of American Railroads;
no seasonal adjustment
Wholesale prices, manufacturing (M).—Department of Labor,
Bureau of Labor Statistics; seasonal adjustment by Bureau
of the Census