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NATIONAL GROWTH POLICY

PART 1

HEARINGS
BEFORE THE

SUBCOMMITTEE ON HOUSING
OF THE

COMMITTEE ON BANKING AND CURRENCY
HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES
NINETY-SECOND CONGRESS
SECOND SESSION
ON

NATIONAL GROWTH POLICY

JUNE 6 AN D 7, 1972

Printed for the use of the Committee on Banking and Currency

U.S. GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE
81-745 O




WASHINGTON : 1972

COMMITTEE ON BANKING AND CURRENCY
WRIGHT PATMAN, Texas, Chairman
WILLIAM A. BARRETT, Pennsylvania
LEONOR K. (MRS. JOHN B.) SULLIVAN,
Missouri
HENRY S. REUSS, Wisconsin
THOMAS L. ASHLEY, Ohio
W ILLIAM S. MOORHEAD, Pennsylvania
ROBERT G. STEPHENS, Jr., Georgia
FERNAND J. ST GERMAIN, Rhode Island
HENRY B. GONZALEZ, Texas
JOSEPH G. MINISH, New Jersey
RICHARD T. HANNA, California
TOM S. GETTYS, South Carolina
FRANK ANNUNZIO, Illinois
THOMAS M. REES, California
CHARLES H. GRIFFIN, Mississippi
JAMES M. HANLEY, New York
FRANK J. BRASCO, New York
BILL CHAPPELL, Jr., Florida
EDWARD I. KOCH, New York
W ILLIAM R. COTTER, Connecticut
PARREN J. MITCHELL, Maryland
W ILLIAM P. CURLIN, Jr., Kentucky

W ILLIAM B. WIDNALL, New Jersey
FLORENCE P. DWYER, New Jersey
ALBERT W. JOHNSON, Pennsylvania
J. WILLIAM STANTON, Ohio
BENJAMIN B. BLACKBURN, Georgia
GARRY BROWN, Michigan
LAWRENCE G. WILLIAMS, Pennsylvania
CHALMERS P. W YLIE, Ohio
MARGARET M. HECKLER, Massachusetts
PHILIP M. CRANE, Illinois
JOHN H. ROUSSELOT, California
STEWART B. McKINNEY, Connecticut
NORMAN F. LENT, New York
BILL ARCHER, Texas
BILL FRENZEL, Minnesota

P a u l N e l s o n , Clerk and Staff Director
C u r t i s A . P r i n s , Chief Investigator
B e n e t D. G e l lm a n , Counsel
J o s e p h C. L e w i s , Professional Staff Member
S t u a r t D. H a l p e r t , Counsel
O rm an S. F i n k , Minority Staff Member

S u b c o m m it t e e

on

H o u s in g

W ILLIAM A. BARRETT, Pennsylvania, Chairman
LEONOR K. (MRS. JOHN B.) SULLIVAN,
Missouri
THOMAS L. ASHLEY, Ohio
WILLIAM S. MOORHEAD, Pennsylvania
ROBERT G. STEPHENS, Jr., Georgia
FERNAND J. ST GERMAIN, Rhode Island
HENRY B. GONZALEZ, Texas
HENRY S. REUSS, Wisconsin
JOSEPH G. MINISH, New Jersey




WILLIAM B. WIDNALL, New Jersey
FLORENCE P. DWYER, New Jersey
GARRY BROWN, Michigan
J. WILLIAM STANTON, Ohio
BENJAMIN B. BLACKBURN, Georgia
MARGARET M. HECKLER, Massachusetts

G e o r g e G r o s s , Counsel
G e r a l d R. M c M u r r a y , Staff Director
B e n ja m i n B . M c K e e v e r , Assistant Counsel
C a s e y I r e l a n d , Minority Staff Member
T e r r e n c e B o y l e , Mi?iority Counsel

(II)

CONTENTS
Hearings held on—
June 6, 1972_______________________________________________________________
June 7, 1972_______________________________________________________________
‘'Report on National Growth 1972,” report of the President’s Domestic
Council Committee on National Growth___________________________________

Pa^e
1
433
3

Statements
Boley, Robert E., executive director, Urban Land Institute_________________
Davis, Arthur A., vice president for operations of the Conservation Foun­
dation, Washington, D .C____________________________________________________
Drachman, Roy P., president. Urban Land Institute_______________________
Haga, Thomas H., director-coordinator, Genesee County, Mich., on behalf
of the National Association of Counties, accompanied by Donald J.
Krapohl, member, Genesee County Metropolitan Planning Commission__
Krapohl, Donald J., member of the Genesee County Metropolitan Plan­
ning Commission, Flint, Mich.; supervisor of Mount Morris (Mich.)
Township ____________________________________________________________________
Mineta, Hon. Norman Y., mayor, city of San Jose, Calif., on behalf of the
U.S. Conference of Mayors and the National League of Cities___________
Iiabinowitz, Alan, professor, University of Washington, Seattle, on behalf
of the American Institute of Planners, accompanied by Albert L. Massoni, director of national affairs, American Institute of Planners_____
Rockefeller, John D., I l l , chairman, Commission on Population Growth and
the American Future, accompanied by Robert Parke, Jr., and Carol T.
F o re m a n _____________________________________________________________________
Rogers, Archibald C., vice president, American Institute of Architects and
chairman, A IA National Policy Task Force, accompanied by Van B.
Bruner, Jr., A I A ; Jaquelin Robertson, A I A ; W illiam L. Slayton, honor­
ary A I A ; and Michael B. Barker, director of urban programs and staff
executive to the National Policy Task Force_______________________________
Waranch, Stanley, president, National Association of Home Builders,
accompanied by Herbert Colton, general counsel; and Carl A. S. Coan,
Jr., staff vice president and legislative counsel____________________________
Walsh, Albert A., president, National Association of Housing and Redevel­
opment Officials______________________________________________________________
A dditional I nformation Submitted

for the




86
475

516

523
104

375

433

487

398
418

R ecord

American Institute of Architects:
“First Report of the National Policy Task Force,” second edition,
report dated May 1972___________________________________________________
Statement on behalf by Archibald C. Rogers, vice president_____________
American Institute of Planners :
Position statement on President Nixon’s “Report on Urban Growth
1972” ____________________________________________________________________
Statement on behalf by Prof. Alan Rabinowitz, University of W ash ­
ington, Seattle__________________________________________________________
Bain, L. Dixon, Jr., urban affairs consultant, Cambridge, Mass., statement
entitled, “New Communities From Old Commerce” _______________________
Conservation Foundation, Washington, D.C., statement on behalf by Arthur
A. Davis, vice president for operations_____________________________________
Davis, Arthur A., prepared statement________________________________________
Gappert, Gary, economist, Urban Affairs Department, University of W is­
consin— Milwaukee, statement with attachments entitled, “Ten Proposi­
tions for National Growth Reporting and Urban Policy” ________________
Haga, Thomas H., prepared statement-----------------------------------------------------------Keith, Nathaniel S., president, National Housing Conference, statem ent-Krapohl, Donald J . :
Letter from Hon. George Romney, Secretary, Department of Housing
and Urban Development, on sections 235 and 236 housing programs
in Beecher School District, Flint, Mich., dated May 25, 1971_________
Supplemental statement__________________________________________________
(in )

478

491
487

385
375
550
86
92

542
520
538

537
536

IV
Mineta, Hon. Norman Y . :
Page
“Alternative Growth Strategies for San Jose: Initial Report of the
Rand Urban Policy Analysis Project,” document prepared for the
National Science Foundation, dated October 1971____________________
151
Rand Urban Policy Program : Strategy for Selection of Cities,” docu­
ment prepared for the National Science Foundation, dated Octo­
ber 1971_________________________________________________________________
269
“Urban Development Policies,” city of San Jose, Calif., document
adopted by city council October 19, 1970, and revised April 10,
1972 _____________________________________________________________________
117
Submission of m ap s:
Incorporated area, city of San Jose (Calif.) April 1972, growth
in square miles, 1910-72________________________________________ 106,107
109
Incorporated areas of Santa Clara County, January 1969_________
National Association of Counties, statement on behalf by Thomas H. Haga,
director-coordinator, Genesee County (Mich.) Metropolitan Planning
Commission ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------520
National Association of Home Builders:
Statement of Policy for 1972_____________________________________________
403
Statement on behalf by Stanley Waranch, president____________________
405
National Association of Housing & Redevelopment Officials :
Program Policy Resolution— 1971-73____________________________________
426
Statement on behalf by Albert A. Walsh, president_____________________
418
Rabinowitz, Prof. A la n :
Position statement of the American Institute of Planners on President
Nixon’s “Report on Urban Growth 1972” _____________________________
385
Prepared statement________________________________________________________
380
Rockefeller, John D., I l l , excerpts from the report of the Commission on
Population Growth and the American Future_____________________________
436
Urban Land Institute, statements on behalf by :
Robert E. Boley, executive director______________________________________
478
Roy P. Drachman, president______________________________________________
475
U.S. Conference of Mayors and the National League of Cities, statement on
behalf by Hon. Norman Y. Mineta, mayor, city of San Jose, Calif________
104
Walsh, Albert A., prepared statement with attached section from N AH RO
Program Policy Resolution— 1971-73, dealing with urban growth and
developm ent---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------423
Waranch, Stanley, submission of the National Association of Home Build­
ers “ Statement of Policy 1972” _____________________________________________
403
Ybarra, Jack, president, Confederacion de la Raza, San Jose, Calif., state­
ment __________________________________________________________________________
539
M

aps

Incorporated area, city of San Jose, Calif., April 1972, growth in square
miles 1910-72______________________________________________________________ 106,107
Incorporated areas of Santa Clara County, Calif., January 1969___________
109




(1)

NATIONAL GROWTH POLICY

TU E SD A Y , JU N E 6, 1972
H ou se of R e p r e s e n t a t iv e s ,
S u b c o m m it t e e o n H o u s in g of t h e
C o m m it t e e o n B a n k in g a n d C u r r e n c y ,

,

'Washington D.C.

The subcommittee met at 10:20 a.m., in room 2128, Rayburn House
Office Building, Hon. William A. Barrett (chairman of the subcom­
mittee) , presiding.
Present: Representatives Barrett, Sullivan, Ashley, Stephens,
St Germain, Gonzalez, Minish, Widnall, Brown, and Heckler.
Mr. B a r r e t t . The hearing will come to order please.
Before turning these hearings over to Congressman Ashley, I would
like to emphasize the importance I attach to the development of a na­
tional growth policy for the country.
Many of you who have followed past housing and urban develop­
ment legislation realize that, often, provisions which are adopted
without much fanfare prove to be the most important in the long
run. I think this will prove to be the case with the national urban
growth policy provisions of the 1970 Housing Act.
All in all, there was very little debate in 1970 over the need for these
provisions. And, because other more urgent provisions of that act
attracted most of the attention, the importance of these growth policy
provisions has not been adequately recognized.
In title VII, the Congress asked the President to submit an urban
growth report every 2 years, spelling out his recommendations for the
development and carrying out of a national growth policy. We asked
him to recommend ways in which the physical and social needs of our
growing population can be satisfied over the next few decades—that
is, where the roads and houses and schools needed to serve our grow­
ing population should be built, more efficiently and at lower cost and
waste to all.
During the 19705 much of the debate in the Congress and the
s,
Nation will be focused on these questions, and the quality of life that
Americans lead by the turn of the century will depend in great part
on how we answer these questions. This hearing is the first of many
that will be concerned with the development of an effective national
policy.
As many of you know, Congressman Thomas L. Ashley is the prin­
cipal author of the 1970 act provisions. He is an acknowledged expert
in this field and I am most happy that he has agreed to undertake
these hearings.




(1)

2

Mr. A s h l e y . Thank you, Mr. Chairman.
Today the Subcommittee on Housing begins 2 days of hearings on
the need for a national growth policy in general, and the President’s
“Report 011 National Growth 1972,” in particular.
At this point in the record, without objection, there will be sub­
mitted the President’s “ Report on National Growth 1972,” issued in
February of this year.
(The report referred to follows:)




Report
on
National
Growth

1972




4

To the Congress of the United States:
I am pleased to transmit the first biennial Report on National
Growth as required by section 703 (a) of the Housing and Urban
Development Act of 1970.
This report was developed by the members and staff of the
Domestic Council Committee on National Growth, under the
Chairmanship of George Romney, Secretary of Housing and
Urban Development. Their efforts are deeply appreciated.

T

he

W h it e H o u s e .
F e b r u a r y 1972.




m

CONTENTS
IN T R O D U C T IO N ...............................................................................
Chapter I. POPULATION G R O W TH AND DISTR IB U TIO N . .
N ATION AL POPULATION G R O W T H ............................
1790-1940........................................................................
1940-1970...............................................................................
Births, Deaths, and Immigration......................................
NATION AL POPULATION D ISTR IB U T IO N ..................
1790-1890.................................................................................
1890-1930............................................................................... .
1930-1970.................................................................................
Principal Patterns of Migration...........................................
Migration Patterns of the Black Population........................
THE POPU LATION SHIFT FR O M R U R A L T O URBAN
A R E A S.......................................................................................
The Declining Farm Population.......................................
Other Factors Influencing Rural-Urban Migration. . .
GRO W TH IN M ETRO POLITAN A R EA S.......................
Rates of Growth..................................................................
Population Density..............................................................
Location of Largest Population Increase.........................
Composition of Central City Population............................
Chapter II. THE CHALLENGE OF BALANCED AND O R ­
DERLY G R O W T H ..........................................................................
PROBLEMS ASSOCIATED W ITH G R O W T H ...............
The Decline of Rural Areas and Small Towns.............
The Changing Role of the Central City........................
Racial and Economic Concentration..............................
Environmental and Transportation Effects.....................
Rising Land Costs...................................................................
FO RM U LA TIO N OF A SINGLE COMPREHENSIVE
NATION AL G R O W TH POLICY: OBSTACLES AND
ISSUES............................................................................ •
.........
Specifying the Goals and Problems of Growth...................
Identifying the Link Between the Growth Process and
Growth Problems.................... ........................................
Influencing the Many Determinants of Growth.................
Determining the Proper Level of Government T o Influence
Growth.............................................................................
MEETING THE CHALLENGES OF G R O W T H .......




Page

vn
1
1
2
3
3
6
6
7
10
10
12
14
14
17
17
18
18
20
22
25
25
26
27
27
28
28

28
29
30
30
30
31
V

6

Chapter III. RECENT STATE AND LOCAL ACTIONS T O
INFLUENCE G R O W T H ...............................................................
THE STATE R O L E ......................................................................
Recent Trends in the Involvement of States in the Growth
Process..............................................................................
State Departments of Urban Affairs........................
State Housing Finance Agencies...............................
State Urban Development Corporation.....................
Increased Involvement With Environmental Concerns.
New State Land Use Controls..................................
New Communities.....................................................
Other Housing Legislation.......................................
Increased Financing of Urban Functions..............
Urban Mass Transportation. .
..........
Financing Public Education....................................
Modernization of Local Government.....................
Interstate Cooperation.......................................................
Voluntary Groupings of States..............................
Multistate Compacts..................................................
Federal-Multistate Compacts........................................
Federal-State Commissions for Water and Economic
Development................................................................
Federal Corporations Cutting Across State Lines. .
Conclusion.................................................................
LOCAL GOVERNM ENTS AND NATION AL G R O W T H .
Single- or Multi-Purpose Authorities. .
...
Counties as Regional Governments................................
Multijurisdictional Councils..............................................
The “ A -95” Review Process.................................................
Chapter IV. ADM IN ISTRATION ACTIONS T O DEAL W ITH
THE CHALLENGES OF G R O W T H ........................................
PAST FEDERAL IN VO LVEM EN T........................................
AD M INISTRATIVE AND PROG RAM IN ITIATIVES. .
Strengthening the Federal System....................................
Rural Development...............................................................
Transportation.....................................................................
National Environmental Policy Act Implementation. . ,
Use of Federal Land.............................................................
Housing.................................................................................
New Community Assistance............................................
Planning Requirements....................................................
A-95 Reviews.. . ................................................................
Federal Property Insurance Programs..................................
Planned Variations.................................................................
Annual Arrangements............................................................
Property Tax Reform-.........................................................
VI




Page
33
33
35
36
36
37
37
38
39
40
41
41
42
42
44
44
44
45
45
47
48
48
49
50
52
53
55
55
56
57
58
58
59
59
60
60
60
61
61
62
63
63

7
Chapter V. AD M IN ISTR ATIO N RECOM M ENDATIONS T O
THE CON GRESS............................
LEGISLATIVE IN IT IA T IV E S. .
Government Reorganization...
Revenue Sharing................
Expanded Rural Credit...........................
Planning and Management Assistance. .
National Land Use Policy....
Powerplant Siting...............................................................
Tax Policy To Conserve Natural and Cultural Values...
Welfare Reform . .
S U M M A R Y ...




page
65
66
66
67
70
71
71
72
73
73
74

VII

8

INTRODUCTION
The desirability of establishing a national growth policy for the
United States has long been a subject for serious study and de­
bate. Over the years, contributions to this discussion from the
academic community and from private enterprise have been
numerous and significant. Earlier in this Administration, a White
House report, “ Toward Balanced Growth, Quantity With Qual­
ity,” spotlighted a wide variety of issues concerning the quest for
better growth and development. The debate over national growth
policy culminated in 1970 with the passage of title V II of the
Housing and Urban Development Act. This act requires that, “ In
order to assist in the development of a national urban growth pol­
icy, the President shall utilize the capacity of his office * * *
and of the departments and agencies within the executive branch
to collect, analyze, and evaluate such statistics, data, and other
information (including demographic, economic, social, land use,
environmental, and governmental information) as will enable
him to transmit to the Congress during the month of February in
every even-numbered year beginning with 1972, a Report on
Urban Growth. * * * ”
This report has been prepared in response to that act. The stat­
utory findings and the overall objectives which led to that re­
quirement suggest, however, that the term “national urban
growth policy5 is too narrow. Instead, this report will use the
5
term “ national growth policy,5 recognizing that rural and urban
5
community development are inseparably linked. It is important
to realize that urban growth problems cannot be discussed in a
useful and intelligent manner without discussing rural growth as
well. And it is also important to note that citizens residing in our
rural areas are confronted with problems no less pressing and no
less deserving of national attention than those of our citizens who
are afflicted by what is generally described as “ the urban crisis.5
5
Another important point of clarification concerns the central
purpose of this report. Its aim, as the statute puts it, is to “ assist
in the development5 of national policy— not to “ enunciate5 such
5
5




IX

9
policy. This document makes no claim, therefore, to present a
single, comprehensive national growth policy for the United
States. It does not presume to reveal some master plan for direct­
ing the multitude of public and private decisions that determine
the patterns of progress in modem America. It represents one
element in our search for an adequate growth strategy; in no
sense does it represent the end of that search.
The longstanding issues concerning the growth of our Nation
are much too complex to be resolved in any dogmatic fashion.
There are honest and legitimate differences among our people as
to how and where such issues should be treated. T o the extent
that any single philosophy of national growth emerges from this
report, it is a philosophy which is based on a respect for diversity
and pluralism.
The task of formulating a growth policy which is more than
mere rhetoric, a policy that really makes a difference in our na­
tional life, is an extremely difficult one. Its difficulty , is com­
pounded because the term “national growth policy”— and even
the term “ urban growth policy”— has come to embrace virtually
everything we do— privately and publicly— that shapes the fu­
ture of our society. As a result, a “national growth policy” is
often viewed as a panacea for all our social ills.
Indeed, when the Congress set forth in section 702(d) of the
Housing and Urban Development Act of 1970 eight recom­
mended components of a national growth policy, it described
them in terms so broad as to encompass the whole body of our
domestic concerns. Numerous other problems have been identi­
fied as potential targets for a national growth policy, including
such general conditions as the destruction of the environment,
the inefficient use of resources, inequality in the treatment of
various social groups, the inadequate or improper financing of
public activities, and inadequate institutional structures for
public decisionmaking.
The hard, unavoidable fact of the matter, however, is that no
single policy, nor even a single coordinated set of policies, can
remedy or even significantly ameliorate all of our ills. As our
problems are many and varied and changing, so our solutions
must be multiple and diversified and flexible.
An effective and realistic approach to national growth must
also take account of the rich variety of cultures which make

x



10

up our country— and of our heritage of freedom in choosing
among various styles of life. One important source of our strength
as a people has been our unwillingness to trust our destiny to the
edicts of any government or the whims of any group. There is no
place in our country for any policy which arbitrarily dictates
where and how our citizens will live and work and spend their
leisure time. Our plans for national growth must rather seek to
help individual Americans develop their unique potentials and
achieve their personal goals.
All of these considerations should not be seen as precluding a
new general strategy for national development. W e need such a
strategy; we must develop a clear and coherent approach. But
as we do so, let us remember that this task is not “ the work of a
day.5 Rather it must be the work of a generation. It is not some­
5
thing that can be done according to neat blueprints drawn up
in advance of action. Rather it must grow out of an ongoing
process in which we learn by doing and in which we are always
ready to learn something new.
This first biennial report on national growth marks the begin­
ning of a systematic effort to
I. Understand the forces that are shaping the communities
in which we live and work;
II. Articulate some of the challenges that must be confronted
as the Nation responds to the challenges of growth;
III. Identify recent developments at the State and local level
for coping more effectively with growth;
IV . Identify major actions of the Federal Government under­
taken to deal with the problems of growth; and
V . Advance recommendations for Federal action to strength­
en the Nation's ability to deal with the challenges of
growth more effectively.
Each of these five objectives are addressed in a separate
chapter of this report.
Recognizing that virtually any item on the Nation's domestic
agenda could be construed as a proper subject for this report,
the report nevertheless tries to focus on a few critical concerns.
It is concerned primarily with the twin objectives of balanced
and orderly growth. Meeting these objectives will require stim­
ulating and channeling private initiative, since progress in this
field may depend more on how ongoing investment is directed




XI

11

than on generating vast new expenditures. It will also require
strengthening the capacity of government at all levels to respond
to growth challenges. Many of this Administration’s most impor­
tant initiatives have been devoted to the achievement of this goal.
For it is the conviction of this Administration that public policies
for balanced and orderly growth will be no more effective than
the mechanisms through which they are shaped and carried out.

xn



12

CHAPTER I

POPULATION GROWTH AND DISTRIBUTION
The 20th century has seen dramatic changes in the location,
the occupations, the mobility, and the standard of living of the
American people. Understanding these trends is essential to the
formulation of sensible policies toward national growth. This
chapter therefore focuses on major trends in the growth and dis­
tribution of our population and on some of the principal social
and economic forces that have shaped these patterns. The trends
to be examined include
•
•
•
•

National population growth;
National population distribution;
The shift from rural to urban areas; and
The patterns of growth in metropolitan areas.

NATIONAL POPULATION GROWTH
During the Nation’s early years, our population grew at a rate
of about 3 percent annually. This meant a doubling of the popu­
lation about every 23 years— from 5.3 million in 1800 to 10.6
million in 1823 to 20.8 million in 1846. So rapid was the rate of
increase that our population soon exceeded the population of
every European country except Russia. In fact, Malthus, the 19th
century economist, used the rate of population increase in the
United States to buttress his claim that expanding populations
would inevitably outrun the supply of food.
Had the rate of increase been maintained until today, the
population of the United States would now be about 900 million.
The growth rate began to decline, however, and, except for the
years following World W ar II, it has fallen steadily since the
Civil War.




13

J 790-1940
The declining population growth rate can be appreciated most
readily by comparing the population changes occurring between
each decennial census, as shown in table 1. Between 1790 and
1860, each census found the population to be about one-third
larger than it had been at the time of the previous census.
Table 1
U.S. POPULATION AT EACH CENSUS, 1790-1970
(In Thousands)

Year1

Population

1790
1800
1810
1820
1830
1840
1850
1860
1870
1880
1890
1900
1910
1920
1930
1940
1950
1960
1970

3,929
5,309
7,239
9,639
12,866
17,069
23,192
31,443
39,818
50,156
62,948
75,995
91,972
105,711
122,775
131,669
151,326
179,323
203,185

"
Increase over previous census
Number
Percentage2

_

_

1,379
1,931
2,399
3,228
4,203
6,122
8,251
8,375
10,337
12,792
13,047
15,978
13,738
17,064
8,894
19,161
27,997
23,862

35
36
33
34
33
36
36
27
26
26
21
21
15
16
7
15
19
13
>*•

1Excludes Alaska and Hawaii prior to 1950.
o
Percentages are calculated from figures in greater detail.
Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census.
L

A

Population increased by only one-fourth in the Civil W ar
decade between 1860 and 1870, and continued to grow at about
the same rate in each of the two succeeding decades.
After 1890, the growth rate fell once again. In each of the
two decades between 1890 and 1910, population increased by

8 1 -7 4 5 O - 72 - pt. 1 - - 2




14
approximately one-fifth. Since 1910, decennial growth rates have
fluctuated between 14.9 percent (19 10-2 0) and 18.5 percent
(1 9 5 0 -6 0 ), except during the depression years. The decade be­
tween 1930 and 1940 witnessed the lowest rate of population
growth of any period in the Nation’s history— 7.2 percent.

1940-1970
Population growth recovered rapidly in the 1940’s (14.5 per­
cent) and even faster in the 1950’s (18.5 percent), largely as a
consequence of the postwar baby boom. Between 1960 and 1970,
the overall growth rate fell back to 13.3 percent due to a decline
in the birth rate. Lower birth rates in the 1960’s can, in part, be
attributed to the record low number of births in the 1930’s.
A declining rate of population increase does not necessarily
mean that the annual increment to the population also declines.
Indeed, although the growth rate for the 1960’s (13.3 percent)
was the second lowest of any decade in our history, the absolute
increase in population (23.9 million) was the second largest of
any decade. Even if growth slows to as little as 10 percent during
the 1970’s, the population will rise by over 20 million, an absolute
increase greater than in any 10-year period before 1950.

Births, Deaths, and Immigration
Three factors interact to determine the rate of population in­
crease : the birth rate, the death rate, and the rate of immigration.
The difference between the birth rate and death rate is the
“ natural” rate of population increase— that rate which would be
sustained in the absence of immigration. The steady decline of
the overall population growth rate over most of the Nation’s
history has been the product of declines in birth and immigration
rates that have more than offset declines in death rates.
In 1800, there were an estimated 55 births for every 1,000
people in the United States. Thereafter, the birth rate fell almost
without interruption until World W ar II, reaching a low of 18
per 1,000 people in the m id-1930’s.
The birth rate began to rise, with the return of prosperity,
reaching a level of about 25 per 1,000 in 1948, where it remained
until the late 1950’s. Since then it has declined again to even




3

15
Table 2
CRUDE BIRTH AND DEATH RATES: 1800-1970

r—
Year

Crude birth rate—
(live births
per 1,000 population)

Crude death rate—
(deaths
per 1,000 population)1

Total
1800
1820
1840
1860
1880
1900
1920
1930
1935
1936
1938
1940
1942
1944
1946
1948
1950
19522
19542
19562
1958
1960
1962
1964
1966
1968
1970
19713

Total

_

Natural increase—
(births less)
deaths/per 1,000
population)
Black and
Total
White
other races

_

_

_

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

55.2
51.8
44.3
39.8
32.3
27.7
21.3
18.7
18.4
19.2
19.4
22.2
21.2
24.1
24.9
24.1
25.1
25.3
25.2
24.5
23.7
22.4
21.0
18.4
17.5
18.2
17.4

-

-

-

1.51
1.47
1.00
.78
.68
.86
.86
1.19
1.06
1.41
1.50
1.45
1.55
1.61
1.58
1.50
1.42
1.29
1.16
.89
.78
.88
.81

1.31
1.43
.98
.73
.65
.81
.82
1.14
1.01
1.38
1.43
1.35
1.47
1.50
1.47
1.39
1.32
1.20
1.06
.79
.70
NA
NA

-

17.2
13.0
11.3
10.9
11.6
10.6
10.8
10.3
10.6
10.0
9.9
9.6
9.6
9.2
9.4
9.5
9.5
9.5
9.4
9.5
9.7
9.4
9.3

_

1.73
1.12
1.15
.97
1.23
1.29
1.50
1.50
1.73
2.10
2.21
2.26
2.48
2.53
2.40
2.20
2.07
1.94
1.64
1.43
NA
NA

Excludes fetal deaths.
2

Birth rates based on 50 percent sample.

3First 11 months.
NA = Not available.
Source: Department of Health, Education, and Welfare.

V ,,-

............................ -

„ „..... ......

...

„

■ /

lower levels than were recorded during the depression, down to
an estimated 17.4 per 1,000 in 1971 /
1 The long-term decline in the birth rate is associated with the shift in population
from rural to urban areas. Birth rates have always been higher in rural areas than in
urban areas. In 1800, the number of children under age 5 for every 1,000 women
aged 20-44 (a commonly used measure of fertility) was over 1,300 in rural areas
and about 850 in the urban areas. When the population of the United States was
primarily rural, the fertility rate for the Nation as a whole closely approximated that
of rural areas; but as the Nation has become more urbanized, the overall fertility rate
fell to more nearly approximate that prevailing in urban areas. But this does
not explain the overall decline in the birth rate, since fertility rates have fallen in
both urban and rural areas ovefr the last 150 years. In fact, they have declined faster
in rural areas than in urban areas. By J970, the ratio of children under 5 to women
aged 20-44 was about 580 per 1,000 in*rural areas and about 500 per 1,000 in urban
areas.

4



16
Table 3
IMMIGRATION, 1820-1970

~

■"
Total
Number
(in thousands)

Period

' “

A

Rate1

1820-1970

45,162

3.7

1820-1830

152

1.2

1831-1840

599

3.9

1841-1850

1,713

8.4

1851-1860

2,598

9.3

1861-1870

2,315

6.4

1871-1880

2,812

6.2

1881-1890

5,247

9.2

1891-1900

3,688

5.3

1901-1910

8,795

10.4

1911-1920

5,736

5.7

1921-1930

4,107

3.5

1931-1940

528

0.4

1941-1950

1,035

0.7

1951-1960

2,515

1.5

1961-1970

3,321

1.7

1962

284

1.5

1963

306

1.6

1964

292

1.5

1965

297

1.5

1966

323

1.6

1967

362

1.8

1968

454

2.3

1969

359

1.8

1970

373

1.8

1Annual rate per 1,000 population. 10-year rate computed by dividing
sum of annual U.S. population total by sum of annual immigrant
totals for same 10 years.
Source: Department of Justice, Immigration and Naturalization
Service; unpublished sources.

_______________________




J
5

17
It is difficult to find data on death rates in the United States
prior to 1900. Since 1900, however, the life expectancy at birth
of the average American has increased significantly. This has
been one factor in the rather dramatic decline in the death rate
from 17.2 per 1,000 in 1900 to an estimated 9.3 per 1,000 in 1971.
Immigration was an important source of population increase
in the United States up until the First World War. In 1914, over
1 million immigrants accounted for more than one-third of our
total population increase. With the enactment of quotas, how­
ever, annual immigration declined sharply.
Between 1960 and 1970, net immigration was responsible for
a population increase of about 3 million, one-eighth of the total
population increase of 24 million. In recent years, immigra­
tion has accounted for about 20 percent of the total annual popu­
lation increase, reflecting in part a slowing of the natural rate of
population growth.
In summary, then, the net effect of declining birth and death
rates has been a 40-percent reduction in our natural rate of
population increase— from 1.5 percent per year in 1900 to 0.9
percent per year in 1970.
In the future, we should expect a further increase in life
expectancy. This will come about as a result of improved methods
for combating disease and current efforts to extend the full
benefits of modern medicine to that portion of the popu lation
not now enjoying adequate medical care. Predicting the birth
rate is more difficult, but there is no reason to believe that it will
increase appreciably in the 1970’s.

NATIONAL POPULATION DISTRIBUTION
Regional growth patterns in the United States have been
influenced by two major developments: the settlement of the
West and urbanization. The former was the most important
factor prior to the beginning of the 20th century, and the latter
has been more important ever since.

J790-1890
In 1790 our population was clustered almost entirely along the
Atlantic seaboard. Roughly one-half of the people lived in the
Northeastern States with an almost equal number in the South

6






Figure 1
Map of the United States, Showing Census Regions and Divisions

CENSUS REGIONS AND GEOGRAPHIC DIVISIONS OF THE UNITED STATES

[Alaska and Hawaii are drawn at different acales from conterminous United States and are not shown in their correct relative geographic positions]
Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census.

19
Atlantic States. Only about 3 percent of the country’s popu­
lation lived in the interior, most of them in Kentucky and
Tennessee.
In the 100 years after 1790, a significant proportion of the
population migrated West— mostly to settle new farmlands. Dur­
ing this period the population of the North Central States rose
from virtually nothing to 22.4 million. By 1890 this region was
the most populous in the Nation, with 36 percent of the total
population. Over the same period, the South Central States grew
to 11.2 million and raised their share of the total population from
3 to 18 percent.
Settlement of the interior regions during the 19th century
came, relatively speaking, at the expense of States along the
Atlantic seaboard. The New England, Middle Atlantic, and
South Atlantic States, which had 97 percent of the total popu­
lation in 1790, accounted for only 42 percent of the total a cen­
tury later.

1890-1930
By 1890, the amount of prime farmland still available in the
central plains had begun to shrink, forcing many migrants to
seek lands further west. Between 1890 and 1930, the West South
Central and Mountain States increased their combined share of
the Nation’s population from 9 to 13 percent, largely at the
expense of the older agrarian States.
At about this same time, industrialization was beginning to
induce the rural-to-urban migration pattern that was to domi­
nate regional population trends in the first half of the 20th cen­
tury. The new industrial employment opportunities were located
in a relatively small number of urban areas along the Atlantic
and Pacific coasts, the Gulf of Mexico, and the Great Lakes—
where adequate water transportation was available.
Between 1890 and 1930, the most dramatic regional popula­
tion growth occurred in the Pacific States. Their population
increased during these 40 years from 1.9 to 8.6 million, and their
share of the Nation’s population went from 3 to 7 percent. U r­
banization also benefited-the Middle Atlantic States; after 1900,
they were able to reverse their steadily diminishing share of the
total population.
8



Table 4
POPULATION BY CENSUS DIVISION. 1790-1970

r 9
Census Divisions
New England
Year
1790
1800
1810
1820
1830
1840
1850
1860
1870
1880
1890
1900
1910
1920
1930
1940
1950
1960
1970

Thousands

%US

25.7
1.009
1,233
23.2
1,472
20.3
1,660
17.2
1,955
15.2
2,235
13.1
2,728
11.8
3,135
10.0
3,488
9.0
4,011
8.0
4,701
7.5
5,592
7.3
6,553
7.1
7,401
7.0
8,166 - 6.6
8,437
6.4
9,314
6.2
10,509
5.9
11,847
5.8

Middle Atlantic
Thousands

%US

958
1,403
2,015
2.700
3,588
4,526
5,899
7,459
8,811
10,497
12,706
15,455
19,316
22,261
26,261
27,539
30,164
34,168
37,153

24.4
26.4
27.8
28.0
27.9
26.5
25.4
23.7
22.9
20.9
20.2
20.3
20.9
21.0
21.3
20.8
19.9
19.1
18.3

East North Central
Thousands

591
272
793
1,470
2,925
4,523
6,927
9,125
11,207
13,478
15,986
18,251
21,476
25,297
26,623
30,399
36,225
40,253

%US

1.0
3.8
8.2
11.4
17.1
19.5
22.0
23.7
22.3
21.4
21.0
19.8
20.3
20.5
20.1
20.1
20.2
19.8

East South Central

West South Central

%US

Thousands

%US

Thousands

%US

Thousands

0.3
0.7
1.1
2.5
3.8
6.9
10.0
12.3
14.2
13.6
12.6
11.8
10.8
10.2
9.3
8.6
8.0

1,852
2,287
2,675
3,061
3,646
3,925
4,679
5,365
5,854
7,597
8,858
10,443
12,195
13,990
15,794
17,823
21,182
25,972
30,671

47.1
43.1
36.9
31.8
28.3
23.0
20.2
17.1
15.2
15.1
14.1
13.7
13.2
13.2
12.8
13.5
14.0
14.5
15.1

109
335
709
1,191
1,816
2,575
3,363
4,021
4,404
5,585
6,429
7,548
8,410
8,893
9,887
10,778
11,477
12,050
12,805

2.8
6.3
9.8
12.4
14.1
15.1
14.5
12.8
11.4
11.1
10.2
9.9
9.1
8.4
8.0
8.2
7.6
6.7
6.3

78
168
246
450
940
1,748
2,030
3,334
4,741
6,532
8,785
10,242
12,177
13,065
14,538
16,951
19,323

West North Central
Thousands

20
66
141
427
880
2,170
3,857
6,157
8,932
10,347
11,638
12,544
13,297
13,517
14,061
15,394
16,324

South Atlantic

%US

1.1
1.7
1.9
2.6
4.1
5.6
5.3
6.6
7.5
8.6
9.5
9.7
9.9
9.9
9.6
9.5
9.5

Pacific

Mountain
Thousands

73
175
315
653
1,214
1,675
2,634
3,336
3,702
4,150
5,075
6,855
8,283

%US

0.3
0.6
0.8
1.3
1.9
2.2
2.9
3.1
3.0
3.1
3.4
3.8
4.1

Thousands

%US

106
444
675
1,148
1,920
2,634
4,449
5,878
8,622
10,229
15,115
21,198
26,526

0.5
1.4
1.8
2.3
3.0
3.5
4.8
5.5
7.0
7.7
10.0
11.8
13.1

Source: Department of Commerce; Bureau of the Census

^




.

.

J

21

1930-1970
The redistribution of population in the United States has con­
tinued right up to the present time. Growth has slowed in the
North Central and Northeastern States (particularly in the met­
ropolitan areas) and accelerated in many of the Southern,
Southwestern, and Western States. By 1970, the share of popu­
lation held by the Middle Atlantic States had declined to 18
percent, and that of the East North Central States to 20 percent.
The last four decades also saw a declining population share in
the West North Central States and a continuation of the long­
term decline in the proportion held by the East South Central
States.
The most rapidly growing regions during this period were the
South Atlantic and Pacific States, which raised their combined
share of the total population from 20 percent in 1930 to 28 per­
cent in 1970.

Principal Patterns of Migration
Changes in population distribution have come about largely
through internal migration. As urban areas grew, the States that
remained primarily agricultural began to experience heavy out­
migration.
The first part of the country to experience net outmigration
on a truly significant scale was the East South Central region
following the close of the Civil War. More than 200,000 people
left this area between 1870 and 1880, and the numbers leaving
grew more or less consistently in every decade except during the
depression years and the 1960’s. Nearly 1.5 million persons left
these States in the 1950’s— the largest exodus from any part of the
United States during a single decade.
The only other section of the country to have had substantial
net outmigration over a long period has been the West North
Central region. Net outmigration from these States began at the
close of the 19th century and gathered momentum after 1910.
Since 1920, the average net outmigration from this region has
exceeded 600,000 persons per decade.
Until 1930, internal migration largely went toward the A t­
lantic seaboard, the Pacific, and the Mountain States. Since
World W ar II, however, the overwhelming proportion of in­
ternal migration has been toward the Pacific Coast States, prin­
cipally California.

10






Table 5
NET INTERNAL MIGRATION BY CENSUS DIVISION, 1870-1970
Total and Black
[in thousands —denotes net outmigration]
>
Year

New
England

Middle
Atlantic

East North
Central

W North
est
Central

South
Atlantic

East South
Central

West South
Central

Mountain

381
268
568
606
37
-23
-465
-656
-580
-42

190
300
197
555
237
-165
1
118
555
307

45
63
57
51
-46
-60
-50
-336
-296
-282

_

-

6
11
-1
6
21
27
16

14
18
37
43
284
278
286

Pacific

Total Population—
Census Divisions
1870-80
1880-90
1890-1900
1900-10
1910-20
1920-30
1930-40
1940-50
1950-60
1960-70

141
403
494
496
298
28
-43
-6
18
316

129
832
1,085
1,882
798
1,252
67
-163
313
9

28
399
597
503
1,274
1,160
-101
343
694
-153

869
1,081
-87
-83
-280
-655
-569
-899
-827
-599

-39
-118
-217
-91
-36
-634
146
159
647
1,332

-205
-247
-245
-429
-612
-571
-364
-1,043
-1,466
-698

197
506
296
1,349
958
1,873
1,178
2,994
3,288
2,547

Black Population--Census Divisions
1870-80
1880-90
1890-1900
1900-10
1910-20
1920-30
1930-40
1940-50
1950-60
1960-70

5
7
14
8
12
7
5
25
60
72

19
39
90
87
170
342
166
387
436
540

20
16
39
46
200
324
108
494
504
356

Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census.

V

16
8
24
10
44
40
20
35
37
26

-49
-73
-182
-112
-162
-509
-175
-424
-556
-538

-56
-60
-43
-110
-246
-180
-123
-485
-622
-560

23
The decade between 1960 and 1970 saw some dramatic
changes in migration patterns, which affected long-term growth
trends in virtually every part of the country. The Middle At­
lantic States, which had absorbed very substantial numbers of
internal migrants in nearly every decade over the past 100 years,
picked up a- negligible 9,000 persons in the 1960’s. The East
North Central States, which had an inmigration of more than 1
million persons between 1940 and 1960, lost more than 150,000
between 1960 and 1970. In sharp contrast with earlier decades,
New England suddenly found itself on the receiving end of the
migration stream with more than 300,000 new migrants during
the decade. The South Atlantic States doubled their rate of new
immigration from 647,000 in the 1950’s to more than 1.3 mil­
lion in the 1960’s.
The result of these regional shifts has been a concentration of
the population along the three coastlines and the Great Lakes.
By 1970, about one-half of the total population lived within 50
miles of the Atlantic or Pacific Oceans, the Gulf of Mexico, or
the Great Lakes.
Migration patterns continue to reinforce an overall westward
shift of the Nation’s population. In 1790, the population center of
the United States was 23 miles east of Baltimore; in 1970, it
was about 30 miles southeast of St. Louis, Mo.
The population trends in certain States over the past 10 years
serve to illustrate the continuing westward shift. The fastest grow­
ing States during this period were Nevada (71 percent), Florida
(37 percent), Arizona (36 percent), and Alaska (34 percent).
Several States had growth rates between 20 and 30 percent, in­
cluding New Hampshire, Delaware, Maryland, Colorado, Cali­
fornia, and Hawaii.
At the other extreme, several States experienced growth rates
of less than 5 percent during the decade: Maine, Pennsylvania,
Mississippi, Iowa, Montana, Wyoming. West Virginia, North
Dakota, South Dakota, Kansas, and the District of Columbia
actually lost population.

Migration Patterns of the Black Population
The internal migration patterns of the black population have
been less complex and varied than those of the population gen­
erally. Data on black migration go back only to 1870, the begin­
ning of the massive outmigration of blacks from the South to

12






Figure 2
The Shifting Center of Population, 1790 to 1970

DEPARTMENT 3F c o m m erce

BUREAU OF THE CENSUS

"Center of population" is that point which may be considered as center of population gravity of the United States or that point upon which
the United States would balance if it were a rigid plane without weight and the population distributed thereon with each individual being
assum to have equal weight and to exert an influence on a central point proportional to his distance for that point.
ed
Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census.

25
the North, principally from rural areas to the large metropolitan
centers on the Great Lakes and the Eastern seaboard.
There has been a net migration of blacks out of the South
Atlantic and East South Central States in every decade since
1870, and out of the West South Centra! States since 1910. In
absolute numbers, the net migration of blacks out of the South­
ern States accelerated for 90 years to reach a peak of nearly 1.5
million in the 1950’s. Only in the 1960’s did the trend begin to
level off, and then only slightly.
Generally, the outmigration of blacks has tended to increase
in prosperous times and decline in periods of depression. It is
probable that the numbers of blacks leaving the South between
1910 and 1940 would have been much larger had it not been for
the depression of the 1930’s and the recovery of agriculture in
several Southern States stemming from the growing popularity
of tobacco.

THE POPULATION SHIFT FROM RURAL TO URBAN AREAS
In 1790, the vast majority of the population lived in rural
areas. Only 5 percent lived in communities of more than 2,500
people and only half of these in cities of more than 10,000. The
United States remained a predominantly rural economy until
1920 when, for the first time, the census showed more than half
the population living in urban places.2 The urbanization trend
began in 1840 and helps explain the steady decline in crude birth
rates which lasted until 1940. By 1970, 74 percent of the popu­
lation resided in cities of more than 2,500 people; 58 percent lived
in urbanized areas of 50,000 or more.
Since 1920, the Bureau of the Census has collected more de­
tailed information about the characteristics of urban and rural
populations from which it is possible to describe the nature of
the rural to urban population shift with more precision.

The Declining Farm Population
A major factor in rural to urban migration has been the decline
in farm population. In 1920 (the earliest year for which there is
a The terminology employed here will be that used by the U.S. Census Bureau.
Thus, an “ urban place” is a place with more than 2,500 people, and an “ urbanized”
area is the developed area that includes and surrounds a city, or twin cities of at least
50,000 population. Rural places are places containing less than 2,500 people. For a
more complete definition of these concepts, see the PC (1) “ A Report of the 1970
Census.”

14



Table 6
U.S. POPULATION BY RESIDENCE, 1790-1970
(EXCLUDES ALASKA AND HAWAII PRIOR TO 1950)

—
Year

Urban
Urbanized
Thousands

1790
1800
1810
1820
1830
1840
1850
1860
1870
1880
1890
1900
1910
1920
1930
1940
1950
1960
1970

69,249
95,848
118,447

Other Urban Places
% US

45.8
53.5
58.3

Thousands

27,598
29,429
30,878




Total

Farm

% US

Thousands

%US

18.2
16.4
15.2

202
322
525
693
1,127
1,845
3,544
6,217
9,902
14,130
22,106
30,160
41,999
54,158
68,955
74,424
96,847
125,269
149,325

5.1
6.1
7.3
7.2
8.8
10.8
15.3
19.8
25.7
28.2
35.1
39.7
45.7
51.2
56.2
56.5
64.0
69.9
73.5

Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census.

Cn

--------- \

Rural

Thousands

31,974
30,529
30,547
23,048
15,635
9,712

Nonfarm
% US

30.2
24.9
23.2
15.2
8.7
4.8

Thousands

19,579
23,291
26,699
31,431
38,419
44,175

Total
%US

18.5
19.0
20.3
20.8
21.4
21.7

Thousands
3,728
4,986
6,714
8,945
11,739
15,224
19,648
25,227
28,656
36,026
40,841
45,835
49,973
51,553
53,820
57.246
54,479
54,054
53,887

%US
94.9
93.9
92.7
92.8
91.2
89.2
84.7
80.2
74.3
71.8
64.9
60.3
54.3
48.8
43.8
43.5
36.0
30.1
26.5

reliable data), the farm population of the United States stood at
32 million persons— 59 percent of the total rural population and
30 percent of the total national population. By 1950, rural farm
population had declined to 23 million, a drop of about 9 million
in 30 years. For the first time, there were more rural residents
living off farms than on them.
The last 20 years have seen a continuation of this trend. In
1970, there were less than 10 million people living on farms, a
further decline of over 13 million which left farm residents ac­
counting for only 18 percent of the rural population and only 5
percent of the total population. This reflects declining employ­
ment opportunities in agriculture.
A revolution in farming methods has taken place since the mid1930’s that has resulted in substantial productivity gains. Esti­
mates prepared by the Bureau of Labor Statistics show that
postwar productivity gains in agriculture have outstripped those
in every other major segment in our economy. Between 1947 and
1970, output per man-hour on the typical American farm in­
creased by an average of 5.9 percent per year. In manufacturing,
productivity increased by an average of just less than 3 percent per
year, and in the rest of the nonagricultural economy by only 2.4
percent per year.
As a result of these rapid increases in productivity which have
not been matched by increases in demand for farm products, less
labor is needed on the farm.
Table 7
CHANGES IN AVERAGE AMOUNT OF LABOR
REQUIRED TO PRODUCE THREE BASIC CROPS

f
Corn for grain

Wheat

Cotton

Man-hours per unit 1:
1800

344

373

601

1935-39

108

67

209

1965-69

7

11

30

Average annual percentage increase in labor
productivity
1800-1937

0.8

1.3

0.8

1937-1957

9.1

6.0

6.4

Ver 100 bushel for corn and wheat; per bale for cotton.
Source: Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service
Vw.

16




1

Table 8
NET MIGRATION FROM FARMS, 1925-69

r

"N
Period

Net
migration
(thousands)

Period

Net
migration
(thousands)

1925-29

-2,965

1950-54

-5,576

1930-34

288

1955-59

-4,552

1935-39

-3,542

1960-64

-3,968

1940-44

-8,018

1965-69

-2,972

1945-49

-3,385

Source. D ep artm ent o f Agriculture, Econom ic Research Service.

Other Factors Influencing Rural-Urban Migration

Rural-urban migration has also resulted from declining em­
ployment of several nonagricultural industries that traditionally
have been located in rural areas. Chief among these are mining,
fishing, and forestry. The force behind these declines is the same
as the one affecting agriculture: increased productivity as a result
of mechanization. Employment trends in nonagricultural indus­
tries has probably not been as significant in inducing rural-urban
migration as the decline in farm employment has been. For in­
stance, between 1930 and 1970, employment in mining declined
by 387,000 while employment in agriculture declined by 6.9
million.
GROWTH IN METROPOLITAN AREAS
It has become increasingly apparent that urbanization in­
volves a complex series of subtle social and economic shifts that
require a more sophisticated form of population analysis. A c­
cordingly, the Office of Management and Budget has designated
Standard Metropolitan Statistical Areas (SM SA’s), each con­
sisting of a “ central city5 with a population of 50,000 or more
’
plus the contiguous counties with an urbanized population.
At the time of the 1970 census, there were 243 SMSA’s.3These
SMSA’s contained 139 million people, or 69 percent of the Na­
tion’s total population of 203 million. They varied in size from
56,000 in Meriden, Conn., to 11.5 million in New York City.
3 Since the 1970 census, 20 additional SM SA ’s have been created. They have
been excluded from the data presented in this section.




These areas also varied in importance from State to State and
from region to region, The most heavily metropolitan State in
1970 was California where 93 percent of the population lived
in SMSA’s. At the other extreme were three States— Alaska,
Vermont, and Wyoming— in which none of the population lived
in metropolitan areas. (In 1971, Greater Anchorage, Alaska, was
recognized as an SMSA, leaving only two States without popula­
tion centers of more than 50,000.)
Rates of Growth

Growth rates in individual SMSA’s varied widely during the
1970’s. Among SMSA’s with at least 200,000 persons, the net
population change ranged from a decline of 9 percent in Charles­
ton, W. Va., to an increase of 115 percent in Las Vegas, Nev.
SMSA’s in the West experienced the most rapid rate of growth—
28 percent. Metropolitan areas in the South did nearly as well,
with an average increase over the decade of 22 percent. The
smallest gains were in the North Central and Northeastern States
where SMSA’s grew by only 13 and 9 percent, respectively.
Among metropolitan areas with populations below 2 million,
growth since 1960 seems to have varied consistently with the
size of the area. In general, larger metropolitan areas grew
faster than smaller areas. This pattern can be seen in growth rates
in all of the regions except the Northeastern region, and is
especially strong in the West and South— the two regions which
accounted for a disproportionately large amount of our metro­
politan population growth during the past decade.
The density of population, the location of the largest popula­
tion increases, and the economic and racial composition of the
central cities are three additional factors of importance in
analyzing population trends within our metropolitan areas.
Population Density

The basic pattern of development within individual cities—■
higher density at the center, lower density at the edge— has re­
mained essentially unchanged for almost a century. However,
for some time our urban areas have been spreading out faster
than population growth alone would justify. As a result, popula­
tion density has tended to decline at the center of town just as
it has in the urban area as a whole.
18




30
Table 9
P O PU LA TIO N OF SMSA'S A N D POPU LA TIO N CHANGES BY
SIZE CLASS IN 1970, FOR REGIONS: 1970 A N D 1960
[SMSA's according to 1970 definition]

Percent
Region and size class of SMSA in 1970

Population in Thousands

change in
population
1960-70

1970

1960

139,374

119,581

16.6

1,000,000 to 1,999,999

52,181
28,433

46,591
22,467

12.0
26.6

500,000 to 999,999

21,935

18,589

18.0

250,000 to 499,999

19,761

16.3

Less than 250,000

17,065

16,992
14,943

39,083

35,984

8.6

21,502
4,565
5,497

20,038
4,183
4,921

7.3
9.1
11.7

4,261
3,259

3,963
2,878

7.5
13.2

37,744

33,429

12.9

15,606

13,997

11.5

500,000 to 999,999

6,966
5,387

6,066
4,720

14.8
14.1

250,000 to 499,999

4,549

Less than 250,000

5,236

4,018
4,627

13.2
13.2

35,173

28,841

22.0

4,932
8,257

3,868
6,169
6,710

27.5
33.9
20.7
17.6

U nited States, total
2,000,000 or more p opulation

Northeast, to ta l
2,000,000 or more p opulation
1,000,000 to 1,999,999
500,000 to 999,999
250,000 to 499,999
Less than 250,000
North Central, to ta l
2,000,000 or more p opulation
1,000,000 to 1,999,999

South, tota l
2,000,000 or more population
1,000,000 to 1,999,999
500,000 to 999,999
250,000 to 499,999
Less than 250,000
West, tota l
2,000,000 or more population

8,096
7,388
6,501

6,282
5,811

14.2

11.9

27,372

21,328

10,141

8,688

16.7

8,645

42.9

28.3

500,000 to 999,999

2,955

6,048
2,237

250,000 to 499,999

3,562

2,729

30.5

Less than 250,000

2,069

1,626

27.2

1,000,000 to 1,999,999

32.1

S ource: D e p a rtm e n t o f Com m erce, Bureau o f the Census

j

In 1950, the average population density in all “ urbanized
ar e a s” in the United States was 5.408 per square mile. By 1960
it had declined to 3,752 per square mile, and by 1970 it was down
to 3,376 per square mile. For central cities, urbanized population
density fell from 7,786 per square mile in 1950 to 4,163 in 1970.




19

31
During these same years, urbanized population densities in subur­
ban areas fell from 3,167 per square mile to 2,627 per square mile.
Comparable census data are not available prior to 1950. But
one study, which reconstructed population densities in several
urbanized areas as far back as 1880, has shown that in most
metropolitan areas population density at the center of the pri­
mary city has been declining since at least 1910. This certainly
has been the case in New York City, the Nation’s most densely
populated city. Here, the population density in the Borough of
Manhattan has declined almost continuously since 1910, from
102,711 per square mile in 1910 to 67,160 per square mile in
1970.
Location of Largest Population Increase

A second important change in the pattern of metropolitan
growth involves the political jurisdictions within which growth
has taken place. Urban population growth has always been con­
centrated on the fringe of the urbanized area, where most of the
vacant land suitable for building new houses is located. Histori­
cally, our cities were able to capture growth by extending their
boundaries to encompass the areas in which new industries and
new housing were being located. In this way, they were able to
continually expand both their population and their tax bases.
Recently, this situation has begun to change. Areas outside
central cities have become incorporated, so that cities attempting
to annex the areas in which population growth is occurring often
find themselves confronting independent political jurisdictions
which are much more difficult to annex. Consequently, the popu­
lation of many cities has stopped growing.
Increasingly, this pattern has become the rule rather than the
exception in our large urban areas. Most of the rapid growth
which metropolitan areas have experienced since 1950 has oc­
curred in the suburbs— generally in the most outlying suburbs—
rather than in the central city.
Between 1960 and 1970, the aggregate population of central
cities increased by 3,852,000 or 6.4 percent; the aggregate popu­
lation of suburban areas increased by 15,939,000 or 26.7 per­
cent. Put differently, over 80 percent of the total population in­
crease in our metropolitan areas occurred in suburban locations
and less than 20 percent occurred in central cities.
20



Table 10
SUMMARY OF POPULATION CHANGES FOR CENTRAL
CITIES BY SIZE CLASS, INCLUDING AND EXCLUDING
ANNEXATIONS 1960-70

X— —




......

.

Population Change, 1960-70

Central
cities
by size

Total
population
1970

Less than
100,000

10,141,890

780,205

100,000
population
or more

53,682,590

100,000
249,999

.............. ..........—
Percent Change

\

Excluding
annexations

Excluding
annexations

Including
annexations

832,915

-52,710

8.3

-0 .6

3,088,107

2,711,858

376,249

6.1

0.7

11,483,502

1,154,822

1,012,474

142,348

11.2

1.4

250,000 to
749,999

20,197,844

1,613,033

1,637,494

24,461

8.7

-0.1

750,000 or
more

22,001,244

320,252

61,890

258,362

1.5

1.2

Source:

Including
annexations

—

Due to
annexations

D ep artm ent of Commerce, Bureau of the Census.

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ /

33
This trend is even more striking when the population increases
of our central cities are divided into those resulting from annexa­
tions and those resulting from growth within their 1960 bounda­
ries. For all central cities, population growth occurring within
their 1960 boundaries amounted to only 700,000 persons during
the last decade. Thus, one could say that the growth in our
central city populations during the last decade actually amounted
to less than 4 percent of the total increase in metropolitan popu­
lation. Small central cities— those with populations under
100,000— actually suffered a population decline within their
1960 boundaries of 0.6 percent.
As our people continue to seek low density life styles the popu­
lation of some fully developed communities has begun to decline.
Since 1950, this has happened in Baltimore, Boston, Philadel­
phia, Pittsburgh, Chicago, Detroit, and St. Louis. Moreover,
the same thing is beginning to happen in selected suburban com­
munities which have themselves become surrounded by other
suburban communities. The 1970 census found that population
decreases where experienced by such suburban communities as
University City, M o.; Dearborn, M ich.; Brookfield, 111.; Chevy
Chase Village, M d .; and Burbank, Calif.
There is no reason to believe that the trends exhibited between
1960 and 1970 will not continue through the 1970’s.
Composition of Central City Population

The third significant trend occurring within metropolitan areas
relates to the changing composition of the metropolitan popula­
tion.
As our urban areas have grown, those persons best able to
afford new housing have moved out to occupy it, leaving much
of the older housing stock for poorer families and individuals.
With the boundaries of central cities becoming fixed, this move­
ment has taken on a new significance: the movement of middle
and upper class families to better housing has resulted in a con­
centration of the poor within central city boundaries. By 1970,
13.4 percent of the population of our central cities was composed
of people with incomes below the poverty line, whereas only 7.2
percent of the suburban population was composed of such
individuals.
22



34
Paralleling the economic separation within metropolitan
areas is the trend toward separation by race. In general, most
of the growth in black population has occurred within the bound­
aries of our central cities, and within those cities, in segregated
neighborhoods. This trend is due in large part to economic and
social forces which have limited the availability of housing for
blacks and minorities outside the central city area. During the
1960’s the black population of central cities grew by 3.2 million,
while the white population in these cities declined by 600 thou­
sand. In contrast, the number of blacks in suburban areas grew by
800 thousand, while the white population showed a 15.5 million
increase. Most of the increase in blacks outside central cities took
place in a relatively small number of areas; two out of every three
new black suburbanites were in one of the 12 largest metropolitan
areas, and more than one-third of them were in just three areas—
New York, Los Angeles, and Washington.
Table 11
1970 POPULATION AND 1960-70 CHANGE IN POPULATION
FOR U.S. METROPOLITAN AREAS, BY SIZE OF AREA AND RACE
[SMSA's according to 1970 definition]

“N

f-m
Change, 1960-70

1970 population
Race and size class
of S M S A

Inside
central
city

Outside
central
city

Total

Inside
central
city

Outside
central
city

Total

Total

63,824

75,549

139,374

3,194

16,598

19,793

2,000,000 or more
1,000,000 to 1,999,999
500,000 to 999,999
250,000 to 499,999
Under 250,000

23,143
11,668
10,871
8,670
9,472

29,038
16,764
11,563
10,592
7,593

52,181
28,433
22,434
19,261
17,065

-4 2 4
1,034
748
783
1,053

6,013
4,931
2,683
1,901
1,070

5,590
5,966
3,431
2,664
2,122

White

49,450

71,061

120,512

2,000,000 or more
1,000,000 to 1,999,999
500,000 to 999,999
250,000 to 499,999
Under 250,000

16,025
9,225
8,544
7,317
8,338

27,260
15,942
10,900
9,876
7,084

Negro

13,148

3,645

2,000,000 or more
1,000,000 to 1,999,999
500,000 to 999,999
250,000 to 499,999
Under 250,000

6,536
2,270
2,016
1,256
1,069

1,475
663
444
607
456

Source:

Departm ent of Commerce, Bureau of the Census.

L




-6 0 7

15,301

14,695

43,285 -2 ,4 8 9
25,167
322
19,261
273
17,193
488
15,422
826

5,262
4,645
2,564

4,940

1,779
1,051

2,837
2,267
1,877

16,793

3,234

820

4,054

8,011
2,934
2,460
1,864
1,524

1,755
637
417
238
186

547
182
33
69

2,302
820
451
307
174

-1 1

2,773

1

23

35
Each of these facts and figures represents a separate brush­
stroke in our portrait of the American people.
They help us to understand the patterns of national growth
which have shaped our life in 1972. They provide the foundation
for our planning as we seek to influence those patterns in the
future.

24



36

CHAPTER II

THE CHALLENGE OF BALANCED AND ORDERLY
GROWTH
The growth and change that our Nation has experienced in the
past have brought substantial benefits. Population growth has
been accompanied by even more rapid economic expansion,
enabling the United States to enjoy the highest standard of living
ever achieved by a major nation. Generally, the patterns of
migration from rural to urban areas and from one region of the
country to another have brought population to where employ­
ment opportunities are. Urban development and suburban
growth have given millions of American families better housing,
facilities, and services. The automobile and the extensive high­
way system— probably the most important forces influencing
the pattern of growth in the post-World War II period— have
increased the mobility of American families and provided them
with greater access to jobs, housing, recreation, and shopping.
This growth, in the form of population changes, technological
development, economic expansion, and individual initiative, will
almost certainly continue during the foreseeable future.
PROBLEMS ASSOCIATED WITH GROWTH
In the last decade, however, we have begun to recognize
that a number of problems are associated with the process and
patterns of growth.
Policies are needed to deal with these problems and to
insure that future growth is both orderly and balanced. As Presi­
dent Nixon has said, “ the growth which this Nation will in­
evitably experience in the coming decades will be healthy growth
only if it is balanced growth— and this means growth which is
distributed among both urban and rural areas.5 Orderly growth
5




25

37
requires overcoming the problems associated with past growth
and preventing their repetition in the future. This will neces­
sitate action by all parts of our society— individuals and families,
private enterprise, and government at the local, State, and Fed­
eral levels.
The Decline of Rural Areas and Small Towns

The Nation’s total rural population— that is, the number of
persons living in open country or in places with less than 2,500
inhabitants— has remained relatively constant over most of this
century. Nevertheless, changes in population composition and
economic activity have produced a number of serious problems
for many small, nonmetropolitan towns and other rural areas.
Since the 1940’s, farm population has declined so rapidly that
it now constitutes less than one-fifth of total rural population. At
the same time, the number of market and service centers needed
by this shrinking segment of rural America has fallen, meaning
that many small towns are no longer able to serve their original
function.
While some growth in nonfarm employment did occur in non­
metropolitan areas during the decade of the 1960’s, the increase
was unevenly distributed. In fact, half of the Nation’s counties
did not experience any growth in nonfarm employment, due
to such factors as their remoteness from large-volume markets,
lack of natural resources and skilled labor, inadequate public
facilities, absence of recreational and cultural activities, the
financial difficulties of local governments, and limited pools from
which to draw effective leadership.
Where employment opportunities have failed consistently to
match the number of jobseekers, many younger and better edu­
cated persons have sought jobs in larger towns and cities, leaving
behind an older and less skilled population in the midst of de­
teriorating economies. Often, the result is a tax base inadequate
to finance basic public services or to attract new job-producing
investment (which would augment the tax base).
Consequently, many indicators show nonmetropolitan areas
lagging behind metropolitan areas in terms of economic and social
conditions. For example, in 1970, 13.8 percent of nonmetropol­
itan families were below the official poverty level compared with
7.9 percent of metropolitan families; and the median income of
families in nonmetropolitan areas was $2,000 less than that of
26



38
families in metropolitan areas. The percentage of high school and
college graduates in the rural population is smaller. Rural areas
have fewer medical and dental personnel in proportion to their
population. The incidence of substandard housing is about three
times higher in nonmetropolitan areas (where three-fifths of the
Nation’s substandard housing units were located in 1970). And
in many rural areas, vital public services and facilities— such as
police and fire protection, a clean water supply, sewage disposal,
air transportation facilities, and recreational and cultural oppor­
tunities— are unavailable, inadequate, or provided only at high
cost.
The Changing Role of the Central City

Shifts in population and changes in the location of economic
activity have also had a substantial impact on the physical, social,
and economic vitality of many central cities.
The influx of low-income families and individuals has placed
a heavy burden on municipal services and facilities. At the same
time, the revenue sources available to pay for them have been
shrinking, as middle and upper income families, together with
commercial and industrial enterprises, move to the suburbs. These
families may continue to place demands on central city facilities
and services, intensifying the problems cities face in providing
them.
The stagnant or declining tax bases of most large cities, to­
gether with the growing costs of the police, fire, welfare, and sani­
tation services, have often led to a reduction in the quality of serv­
ices. This falls especially hard on poor families since they suffer
the consequences of crime, vandalism, drug addiction, and neigh­
borhood deterioration more than other Americans.
Racial and Economic Concentration

Population movements have increased racial and economic
concentration in urban areas. The percent of metropolitan fam­
ilies with incomes below the official poverty level living in the
central city increased from 61.3 in 1960 to 63.1 in 1970. Between
1960 and 1970, the percent of blacks living inside central cities
increased from 51.5 to 55.2 and the percent of whites living out­
side central cities increased from 32.6 to 38.6. A large number




27

39
of urban poor, black, and other minority families are concen­
trated in particular inner city neighborhoods.
Environmental and Transportation Effects

Increasing population in large metropolitan areas has inten­
sified problems of air, water, and noise pollution and other forms
of environmental degradation. Forests, streams, swamps, shore­
lines, wetlands, open space, and scenic areas have been consumed
by metropolitan development.
Few cities have found ways to control traffic congestion. Many
urban dwellers spend a substantial proportion of their time con­
tending with problems of clogged streets and highways and trying
to find parking spaces at their destination. At the same time,
declining densities within metropolitan areas have made it diffi­
cult to provide efficient, self-supporting public transportation
service.
Rising Land Costs

In most areas of the United States, rapid increases in land costs
have accompanied urban growth. Census Bureau surveys of the
price of new homes indicate that land values increased about 6
percent annually between 1963 and 1969. The National Associa­
tion of Homebuilders report that the proportion of a new home’s
value accounted for by site costs rose from 11 percent in 1949 to
24 percent in 1969. Similarly, site costs of homes financed with
FHA-insured loans rose from 17 percent of total value in 1960 to
20 percent in 1970. Inflation in land prices contributed to the 75percent increase in housing costs during the 1965-70 period.
FORMULATION OF A SINGLE COMPREHENSIVE NATIONAL
GROWTH POLICY: OBSTACLES AND ISSUES
Each of the problems discussed above is a primary concern of
this Nation. Government should address itself to alleviating these
problems, and, at the same time, adopting policies towr
ard growth
that will prevent their recurrence in the future.
Developing a single comprehensive strategy— a national
growth policy— for dealing with the forces of growth, is an ex­
tremely difficult undertaking. It is made so by a variety of obsta­
cles and issues that must be clearly recognized if our Nation is
28



40
to be successful in meeting the challenge of growth. This section
discusses some of these obstacles and issues.
Specifying the Coals and Problems of Growth

Defining the objectives of a national growth policy requires a
searching consideration of our national objectives and priorities.
This task becomes increasingly difficult as we move closer to
specific goals.
In the abstract, the concept of growth policy commands
nearly universal support. Conflicts and issues arise, however, as
individual issues are specified and priorities established. A recent
unpublished study of growth policy issues cites 25 domestic prob­
lems which have been identified as possible targets of a national
growth policy. It observes, however, that few individuals and
groups see the growth question this broadly. Most individuals
look to a growth policy to remedy the four or five problems about
which he or she is most concerned. To the extent these problems
conflict with one another, developing a comprehensive growth
policy becomes more difficult. In fact, solving even one of these
problems may create new problems for which various groups will
look to a growth policy for solution.
Not only do individuals frequently disagree over which prob­
lems in the growth area are most pressing; many times individuals
disagree over whether a particular consequence of growth is in­
deed a problem at all. The well-known phenomenon of “ sprawl5
5
provides a good example.
As chapter I points out, population densities in urban areas
have been falling for some time. The resulting living patterns
have been attacked by some individuals as wasteful and inef­
ficient. Low-density utilization of land use raises the costs of
public facilities— requiring extra miles of streets and sewer
lines— and increases the distance traveled in reaching destina­
tions. It is sometimes argued that self-contained villages in
which, for example, workers walk to work would be less expensive
than present patterns.
But it is well to place this trend in proper perspective. Lowdensity living appears to be the style of living most preferred by
our population. Many individuals and families, hence, are willing
to pay the price of sprawl— greater distances traveled (although
not necessarily more time spent traveling), higher public facility
costs— in order to enjoy low-density living.




29

41
Identifying the Link Between the Growth Process and Growth
Problems

The problems associated with growth, by any definition, in­
clude many of the most intractable social and governmental
concerns of this country. The relationship of these issues to
national growth is complex and sometimes obscure. Growth is
rarely the single cause of a problem; more often, a problem or
condition both affects the patterns of growth and is affected by
them. Racial and economic discrimination, for example, has been
a cause of unbalanced growth, while growth, in turn, has contrib­
uted to the problem.
Influencing the M any Determinants of Growth

Patterns of growth are influenced by countless decisions made
by individuals, families, and businesses. These decisions are aimed
at achieving the personal goals of those who make them, and re­
flect healthy free choices in our society. Locational shifts by indi­
viduals reflect, in part, a search for better job opportunities or
for a better climate, while businessmen relocate where they can
operate most efficiently and therefore make the most profit.
The factors that influence these decisions may be susceptible to
changes that will alter the emerging growth patterns, but, in a
Nation that values freedom in the private sector and democratic
choice in the public, the decisions themselves cannot be dictated.
Determining the Proper Level of Government To Influence
Growth

In many nations, the central government has undertaken force­
ful, comprehensive policies to control the process of growth. Simi­
lar policies have not been adopted in the United States for several
reasons. Among the most important of these is the distinctive
form of government which we value so highly in this country.
Ours is a federal system, with powers shared between the States
and National Government. This system preserves the ability of
citizens to have a major voice in determining policies that most
directly affect them. This voice is sustained by keeping govern­
ment close to the people.
Another important reason for the lack of a single dominant
growth policy is the sheer size of our Nation. .The United States
is a vast country— many times bigger than even the largest of the
30



42
Western European countries. While we may observe certain com­
mon patterns of growth throughout the Nation, there are also
distinct differences within each area. Patterns of growth reflect
many determinations having primarily local significance, such as
local tax levies; the location of public facilities and roads; the
extension of sewer, water, electric, and gas services; specific zon­
ing and building regulations; the approval of development plans.
These decisions can best reflect specific community factors and
objectives if they are made at the local level. Accordingly, it is not
feasible for the highest level of government to design policies for
development that can operate successfully in all parts of the
Nation.
MEETING THE CHALLENGES OF GROWTH
If we are to meet the challenges of national growth, we must
begin by determining where in our governmental system we can
best deal with the problems and opportunities of growth.
In some cases, the Federal Government is the only body with
the capability to assure balanced and orderly growth. This is
especially true in the economic area. Fiscal and monetary policy,
prudently conducted, can do much to keep the Nation’s economy
growing at its full potential. Similarly, Federal support for re­
search and development can help accelerate the pace of techno­
logical advancement, which is so necessary to a growing economy.
There are also some growth problems which are truly national
problems, and which should be addressed by the Federal Gov­
ernment. These problems are national, not in the sense that they
crop up in many places— street lighting is a pervasive problem
but hardly a national problem— but because no one State can
deal with them effectively. Water and air pollution are good
examples of these national problems.
However, any consideration of growth issues must recognize
that many of these issues fall within the boundaries of State and
local governments. The following chapter looks at the way in
which these bodies have responded to the forces of growth in
recent years.




31

43

CHAPTER III

RECENT STATE AND LOCAL ACTIONS
TO INFLUENCE GROWTH
The Federal Government can do much to set the tone and
provide leadership and new directions for the Nation in prepar­
ing for growth. The legislation it enacts, the policies it formulates,
and the programs it administers all influence the direction and
form of development in particular areas.
Nevertheless, the nature of growth in America in the years
ahead will depend primarily upon the scope and nature of actions
taken by State and local governments and upon the countless deci­
sions made by tens of thousands of individuals and business en­
terprises, large and small, that are involved in the planning,
building, and servicing of our burgeoning urban and rural com­
munities and neighborhoods. State and local governments to­
gether determine the actual pattern of land use in metropolitan
areas and the countryside. And it is private capital for the most
part that finances the physical construction and the economic
and social development that carries out those decisions.
O f course, individual aspects of growth cut across State lines
and must be dealt with from a broader perspective than that of
a single State. Even in these instances, however, existing units
of State and local government play important roles in formulat­
ing and implementing policies for dealing with the problems and
opportunities of growth.
THE STATE ROLE
States rarely attempt to control land use directly. In most cases,
this is left to lower levels of government— counties, townships,
and municipalities. However, the extent to which these govern­
ments can control or influence the growth process is heavily
dependent upon the statutory framework in which they operate.



33

44
This framework is set down by the States and provides both the
powers that local governments exercise, and limitations on
the use of these powers. The three most important features of
this framework, from the standpoint of influencing growth,
are: the structure of local government, the financing of local
government, and local control over land use.
The structure of local government is set forth in State constitu­
tions and State statutes. Together they determine, for example,
• The relative ease with which a town or city can expand its
borders through annexation to keep pace with population
movements;
• The degree to which local units of government are suscepti­
ble to consolidation;
• The extent to which it is possible for neighboring local gov­
ernments to transfer functions for more economical and
effective performance; and
• The extent to which the citizens or local governments in
metropolitan areas may establish areawide authorities or
districts for managing water and sewer utilities, mass trans­
portation, environmental regulation, or other areawide
problems.
Ease of incorporation or difficulty of annexation, or both, are
likely to produce a fragmented local tax base which, in turn,
usually means disparities in fiscal resources among the local gov­
ernment jurisdictions making up a metropolitan area.
The practice of operating public schools through separate dis­
tricts that, for the most part, depend on the property tax has
also produced disparities in the resources that can be spent for
each child’s education. Although 17 States require local schools
to be administered on a countywide basis, most States administer
them through small districts. As in the case of cities, counties, and
towns, the greater the number of school districts within a metro­
politan area, the greater will be the fiscal disparities between the
richest and poorest districts.
The financing of local government, likewise, is covered in State
constitutions and statutes. In most cases, the State controls the
taxes and user charges which a local government can levy. With
only a handful of exceptions, any local government desiring to
impose a new tax must first go to the State legislature for statu­
tory permission. The State also controls the amount local govern­
ments can borrow, limiting the manner and dispatch with which
34



45
these governments can respond to problems of growth or
stagnation.
Limitations on the use of income and sales taxes have forced
local governments to rely heavily for their revenue upon taxes
levied on real property. Over 85 percent of local government
taxes are raised through the property tax. This, in turn, has
exercised a significant influence over local land use decisions.
Control over land use is a general power of State govern­
ment. A State may influence land use either through direct
acquisition or through statutory controls.
Through negotiated purchase or condemnation, State and
local governments are able to acquire land for a variety of pur­
poses, including open space, recreation, roads, schools, and other
public facilities.
Zoning powers enable public bodies to control the use of pri­
vately owned land. In nearly every State, this power has been
delegated almost entirely to local governments of any and every
size. Tiny municipalities with populations of a few hundred
people are able, through the zoning power, to control the use of
land within their boundaries. By regulating the size of lots and
by restricting residential use to single-family dwellings, local gov­
ernments have had a considerable influence over the kind of fam­
ilies which are able to buy homes within the municipal bounda­
ries. The objective of these regulations often is to limit the kind of
families moving in to only those that will “ pay their way5— who
5
will pay more taxes than they will consume in public services.
This practice, known as “ fiscal zoning,” tends to preclude pur­
chase and occupancy of homes by large or low-income families.
Recent Trends in the Involvement of States in the Growth Process
As noted above, State governments traditionally had little di­
rect involvement with the growth process, delegating most of
their responsibilities to local governments. For the most part,
States confined their activities to the areas of taxation, regulation,
judicial functions, and agriculture. Although they gradually be­
came involved in highway construction and maintenance, educa­
tion, and certain health and welfare functions during the 19505
s,
even as late as the mid-1960’s few States were directly involved
in other community development functions related to growth.
This pattern is now changing. In recent years, an increasing
number of States have been moving affirmatively to deal with the

 81-745 O - 72


35
- pt. 1 - - 4

46
pressures associated with growth. Some States have begun the
difficult process of attempting to differentiate between areas
where growth should be encouraged and areas where it should
not be. Serious discussions of policies toward growth have begun
in a number of States.
There have also been a wide variety of specific State initiatives
affecting the growth process— most of them undertaken with­
out any Federal “ sticks” or “ carrots.” While much remains to be
done, progress at the State level is encouraging.
State Departments of Urban Affairs

Since the mid-1960’s, every State has set up administrative
mechanisms within State government for dealing with local and
urban problems. In some States, a special assistant within the
office of the Governor has been assigned responsibilities in this
area. Over 30 States, however, have established formal offices
of urban affairs, housing and community development, or local
government relations, for dealing with these problems. Most of
them act to coordinate programs that concern the urban areas of
the State, study housing and other emerging urban problems,
recommend action to the Governor and legislature, provide plan­
ning and technical assistance to local units of government, and
serve as a liaison between local governments and agencies of the
State government.
State Housing Finance Agencies

Seventeen States have created State housing finance agencies
to provide low- and moderate-income housing. These agencies
generally seek to encourage private housing enterprise by provid­
ing loans, grants, or second-mortgage financing and technical
assistance to nonprofit or limited-profit sponsors. They are using
tax-exempt revenue bonds for low- and moderate-housing con­
struction, thereby providing an interest subsidy that can reduce
monthly rentals by $20 to $40 per unit. Six States have created
mortgage credit programs involving the sale of tax-exempt reve­
nue bonds to create a secondary mortgage market. Others pro­
vide mortgage insurance for low- and moderate-income housing.
Some of these agencies are involved in the direct provision of
housing as well. In Delaware, for example, the housing authority
is empowered to build or rehabilitate housing to be sold, and the
West Virginia authority may assemble and hold land for future
36




47
development. In addition, six States have established statewide
public housing authorities.
State Urban Development Corporation

New York has established an urban development corporation
to stimulate community development by assuming the initial
risks and delays which often plague large projects. Other States
are considering the creation of similar corporations,
The New York corporation is authorized to initiate the plan­
ning and construction of needed public facilities. In addition, it
may sponsor urban renewal projects and build certain housing,
commercial, and civic facilities. The corporation is empowered
to sell or lease its projects to public agencies or private investors
at the earliest feasible time, whether during planning, construc­
tion, or operation.
Increased Involvement With Environmental Concerns

Several States have added environmental bills of rights to
their constitutions. In November 1970, Rhode Island and Vir­
ginia voters approved such amendments, declaring that the peo­
ple have the right to clean air and water, an attractive and
healthy environment, and preserved natural resources.
More than a dozen States have established departments of
State government concerned with environmental matters. Ver­
mont has gone even further and established control boards in
each environmental region of the State to insure conformance of
all improvements and developments of 10 acres or more with
State environmental legislation.
In addition to creating environmental agencies, State legis­
latures have enacted a significant body of substantive legislation
dealing with environmental problems. Last year, for example,
the North Carolina Legislature joined three other States in re­
quiring the preparation of a detailed environmental impact state­
ment before any project can receive State financial assistance. In
addition, legislation was passed to require periodic reporting of
all pollutants discharged into the air or water. Regulations were
placed on discharge of wastes from boats, septic tanks, and ani­
mal and poultry producers. A scenic rivers system was authorized.
Oil shippers were made liable for cleanup and damages from
spills. Beach, coastal, and estuarine protections were strength­
ened. Funding procedures were established for erosion control.




37

48
Environmental controls were placed on public utilities. Antilitter
and junk vehicle laws were tightened. Construction of regional
water supply systems was authorized. The State joined the South­
ern Regional Environmental Compact. Reclamation was re­
quired of surface mining operations. A pesticide board was
created. And a comprehensive State land use study was initiated.
New State Land Use Controls

As mentioned earlier, zoning controls over land use are exer­
cised almost exclusively by local governments, although the
power stems from the State. Only within the last 2 or 3 years
have States begun to retrieve any of these powers from their local
governments.
• In 1969 Oregon and Maine joined Hawaii in establishing
State zoning controls. Maine gave its Environmental Im­
provement Commission veto power over commercial or in­
dustrial development anywhere in the State and broadened
the Commission’s jurisdiction to include over 42 percent of
the entire land area of the State.
• California passed legislation requiring public access to
beaches, lakes, and reservoirs throughout the State. New
Jersey enacted land use controls over coastal tidelands, and
Georgia and Maryland passed legislation protecting coastal
marshlands and wetlands.
• California recently adopted the preliminary plan of the
Tahoe regional planning agency, a master zoning plan for
the entire California-Nevada Lake Tahoe region. Accord­
ing to this agency, the resources of the Tahoe area can sus­
tain a population of 280,000 before destroying the delicate
balance between the wilderness forest-watershed and the
lake. But if the area is fully developed under its present
zoning pattern, the agency projects a total population of
700,000. The new goal: a change in zoning to permit
220,000 people to occupy the Tahoe region— a growth of
only 650,000 over the present population.
• Delaware enacted a new coastal zoning law that prohibits
all heavy industry within 2 miles of the seacoast.
• Minnesota issued flood plain and lakeshore zoning regula­
tions to prevent haphazard growth injurious to the
environment.
38



49
• Vermont in 1970 enacted a new land use law which au­
thorizes the State to control development at areas above
2,500 feet elevation, and to control all large-scale develop­
ment. The Vermont law requires one State to prepare a
land capability plan to establish the developmental capacity
of the State’s land and water resources.
Several other States are considering legislation to improve
their ability to regulate urbanization and land use within their
borders. Some States are already moving to regulate the use of
land in and around highway interchanges, major State facilities,
and other key public properties. Not unexpectedly, some local
units of government have strongly opposed State entry into local
zoning.
The American Law Institute has had under preparation for
some time a model land development code that would involve
State agencies in planning and controlling the use of land. The
code assumes a strong role for a State land planning agency, a
State land adjudicatory board, and a State or local land develop­
ment agency.
New Communities

Several States have begun to provide a framework for en­
couraging the development of new communities. For example:
• Arizona has authorized creation of new town improvement
districts which can issue special district bonds.
• California has provided for planning and land assembly by
redevelopment agencies in support of new communities.
California’s law requires approval by the local agency for­
mation commission (a county-based agency supervising local
government boundaries, including annexation and incorpo­
ration proceedings and special district formation) before
redevelopment agencies may proceed to planning and land
assembly for a project.
• Kentucky has passed a New Communities Act authorizing
nonprofit new community districts to exercise general
governmental powers within a specific area in order to
promote private initiative and voluntary participation in
planned urbanization. T o encourage innovation and experi­
mentation, each new community district is exempted from
all housing restrictions and building codes.




39

50
In a considerable number of States, some property tax relief
is obtained by new community developers during the period of
land assembly through statutory provisions establishing what is
known as “ preferential farm assessment.5 This device allows
5
land that is in the path of urbanization but still in agricul­
tural usage to be assessed at its agricultural value rather than
at its market value. As the new community developer acquires
large tracts of undeveloped farmland, he can maintain a nominal
farm operation and pay taxes at the lower agricultural rate. In
some States, once the land is actually converted to urban use, a
rebate must be made to the local government for the tax defer­
ment received during the preceding years. This type of “ rollback5
5
requirement is not in effect in many States, however.
Other Housing Legislation

The States have been passing a variety of housing legisla­
tion relevant to National and State growth policies. This legis­
lation deals with industrialized housing, mobile homes, building
codes, and access to housing.
• Vermont and Delaware have assumed State zoning powers
with regard to mobile homes and will apply such zoning
requirements regardless of local regulations.
• California, South Carolina, and Maryland have moved for
State inspection of factory-built housing at the factory. On
passing inspection, the housing components may be erected
anywhere in the State, local building codes notwithstanding.
• California has authorized contiguous cities or counties to
create areawide housing authorities.
• Rhode Island has made indirect discrimination an unlawful
housing practice and Kansas has begun to implement its
open housing statute.
Establishment of Planning and Development Districts

Over the past few years, States have moved rapidly to estab­
lish substate districts for purposes of planning and development.
These districts are located in both metropolitan and nonmetro­
politan areas. Some of this State action was undertaken in selfdefense when proliferating and competing Federal programs
in the late sixties were requiring the establishment of multi­
county districts with district boundaries varying from program
to program. Office of Management and Budget Circular A-80,
40



51
later incorporated into Circular A-95, requires Federal agencies,
in the absence of compelling reasons to the contrary, to respect
State planning district boundaries in the conduct of Federal
programs within the State.
The principal responsibilities of these district organizations
are comprehensive and functional planning, coordination of plan­
ning done by units of local goverment and other organizations
within the area, technical assistance to local governments in plan­
ning and administration, and review and coordination of certain
federally assisted projects.
As of June 1971, 38 States had officially delineated State
planning and development districts for all or most of their geo­
graphic areas. O f the 473 districts included in these 38 States,
more than half already have some type of organization, generally
consisting of a policy board and operating staff.
Increased Financing of Urban Functions

With increasing frequency States have been supplementing
Federal grants to local governments. In a 1970 survey, the Ad­
visory Commission on Intergovernmental Relations found 35 of
50 States reporting voluntary State financial contributions to
federally aided programs. Financial participation by State gov­
ernments occurs most often in connection with federally aided
sewage treatment projects; more than half the States are partic­
ipating financially in municipal and county sewage treatment
plant construction. Urban renewal, public housing, urban mass
transportation, community action, airport development and spe­
cial Federal education aid programs are also drawing some State
financial participation. In picking up a part or all of the nonFederal share of these programs, the States are able to afford
some fiscal relief to hard pressed localities and to coordinate and
establish priorities among applications from different localities.
Urban Mass Transportation

State legislatures have been especially active in the past 2 years
with respect to urban mass transportation. Maryland, Pennsyl­
vania, Rhode Island, and Delaware have created departments of
transportation, bringing to 15 the total number of such depart­
ments at the State level. Maryland established a comprehensive
transportation trust fund; Hawaii is helping Honolulu develop
a mass transit system; Virginia has authorized use of highway




41

52
funds for mass transit; Ohio has authorized regional transporta­
tion authorities to provide port and airport services; Colorado has
authorized the use of up to 10 percent of the public service tax
fund for assistance to localities in providing urban mass transit;
and during the last 2 years seven States have authorized the
creation of mass transit agencies.
Financing Public Education

The most expensive public service in most localities is elemen­
tary and secondary education, financed primarily by the local
property tax. Many experts have concluded that this method of
financing local education inevitably produces great disparities in
the educational resources available to children in school districts
of widely varying wealth. They have urged that the States assume
primary responsibility for financing education to narrow or elim­
inate these disparities.
A number of States— including New York, Maryland, Indiana,
Texas, California, Michigan, and Minnesota— have undertaken
studies of school finance. These studies have led to active legisla­
tive proposals in Michigan and Minnesota, and to legislation in
Maryland by which the State has assumed the complete cost of
school construction.
Judicial intervention in 1971 is bound to give substantial
impetus to changes in the method of financing public education
throughout the Nation. The California Supreme Court, Federal
courts in Minnesota and Texas, and a State court in New Jersey
have held the current basis of school financing in each of those
States to be unconstitutional because it amounts to a classification
based on wealth, where there is no compelling interest motivating
such a classification. Similar court challenges to dependence on
local property taxes to finance public education are pending in
other States.
Modernization of Local Government

States are modernizing the structure of their local governments
and beginning to deal with the critical growth problems resulting
from deficiencies in local government structure and finance. Some
States have amended their constitutions to permit localities
greater flexibility in organizing to perform governmental func­
42



53
tions. Others have removed restrictions on the powers and financ­
ing of local governments, enabling them to proceed at their own
initiative in dealing with emerging problems.
• Colorado voters have approved a constitutional amendment
providing county home rule and allowing the imposition of
differential property tax rates for the urban and rural por­
tions of a county.
• Michigan has enacted sweeping changes in annexation pro­
cedures, authorizing the State Boundary Commission to
order annexation in home rule counties. These counties may
initiate annexation by resolution, but the Boundary Commis­
sion has final authority to approve, modify, or deny the ac­
tions. A referendum within the area to be annexed is no
longer required.
• The new Illinois constitution, approved in late 1970,
strengthened home rule by eliminating the longstanding
rule requiring the State legislature to specifically delegate
all local government powers.
• Vermont and Nebraska have removed statutory limitations
on local government bond offerings.
• Vermont has authorized two or more municipalities to form
“ union municipal districts,” with powers similar to regular
municipalities.
• Rhode Island, South Carolina, Washington, Texas, and Illi­
nois have broadened previously existing authority for inter­
local cooperation. Local units of government in at least twothirds of the States now have legal authority to contract with
one another for the performance of governmental functions.
• New York and Maine have mandated State certification of
the qualifications of local property tax assessors.
• Oregon has authorized the State Revenue Department to
assist local governments in estimating and collecting non­
property taxes.
• Vermont has created a State Municipal Bond Bank author­
ized to buy local bond issues from the proceeds of its own
sales of revenue bonds; this will ease the fiscal strain that
most small localities face in marketing their bonds.
• Missouri has authorized charter counties to allocate func­
tions between the county and municipal governments.




43

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Interstate Cooperation
When growth issues cut across State lines, joint action by
States often becomes necessary. At various times, States have
come together on their own to deal with these issues. At other
times, the Federal Government has taken a direct role in fostering
cooperation among States, with the result that many interstate
institutions are in reality joint ventures between the Federal Gov­
ernment and groups of States.
There are several types of interstate, subnational organizations.
Voluntary Groupings of States

For several decades, Governors and other leaders of 47 States
have been meeting at least once a year in four regional groups
under the auspices of the Council of State Governments. The
regional conferences discuss matters of common concern, pass
policy resolutions, and provide a basis for the creation of inter­
state agreements in areas such as education and corrections.
A more unique voluntary regional organization is the Federa­
tion of Rocky Mountain States. This is a nonprofit endeavor in­
volving the governments of Colorado, Idaho, Montana, New
Mexico, Utah, and Wyoming, and businesses concerned with the
development of the Rocky Mountain region. The federation en­
ables the six States and businesses in the region to communicate
with one another and to more fully understand where the region
is heading. Created in 1966, its expenses are supported equally by
appropriations from the six States, and by over 300 private-sector members.
Multistate Compacts

Interstate compacts are formal agreements between State gov­
ernments. A 1970 compilation by the Council of State Govern­
ments listed 160 active compacts and at least 31 proposed com­
pacts spanning a wide range of governmental activity. The use of
compacts is increasing; one-third of the active compacts were
created during the past decade.
Five compacts authorize cooperation in planning the orderly
development of specified areas:
• Bistate Development Agency Compact (St. Louis metro­
politan area, Illinois and Missouri, 1949)
• Minnesota-Wisconsin Boundary Area Compact (1965)
44



55
• New England Interstate Planning Compact (1967)
• Tahoe Regional Planning Compact (California and Nevada,
1968)
• Delaware Valley Urban Area Compact (New Jersey and
Pennsylvania, 1965).
During the past several years, compacts have increasingly been
used for sharing facilities and finances in areas such as correc­
tions, higher education, health, motor vehicle safety and regis­
tration, nuclear energy, and welfare. Most recent compacts have
involved more than two States.
Federal-Multistate Compacts

Congress has expanded the powers of two interstate compacts
by making them binding on Federal agencies. These are the com­
pacts creating the Delaware and Susquehanna River Basin
Compact Commissions.
Proposals for a Delaware compact began in 1925 when the city
of New York made application to tap Delaware River water, but
it was not until 1961 that four-State cooperation was secured. By
that time, the need for management of the entire river basin con­
vinced Congress that a Federal-State Commission was the proper
vehicle. The Susquehanna Compact, based on the Delaware ex­
perience, was created by Maryland, New York, and Pennsyl­
vania in 1967 and 1968 and ratified by Congress in 1970.
Both compacts provide that no project using substantial
amounts of basin waters can be undertaken unless it is included
in the commission’s comprehensive plan. Subject only to an
extraordinary and limited right of suspension by the President,
this requirement applies alike to Federal, State, local, and pri­
vate projects. The result has been the creation of a single, com­
prehensive framework for coordinating all water resources
development throughout the basin.
Federal-State Commissions for Water and Economic
Development

Three statutes in 1965 authorized cooperation between groups
of States and the Federal Government in addressing problems
that cut across State lines.
The Appalachian Regional Commission.— The Appalachian
Regional Development Act created the Appalachian Regional




45

56
Commission “ to provide public works and economic develop­
ment programs and the planning and coordination needed to
assist in development of the Appalachian region.” The Commis­
sion is composed of a Federal co-chairman and the Governor
from each participating State in the Appalachian region. Con­
gress sets the regional boundaries, which now encompass 397
counties in 13 States.
A key feature of the Commission is its investment strategy
utilizing “ growth centers.” The legislation that established the
Commission stipulated, “ The public investments made in the
region under this act shall be concentrated in areas where there
is a significant potential for future growth, and where the ex­
pected return on public dollars invested would be the greatest.”
The growth area strategy has served as a rough priority setting
device, with each State developing its own system for identify­
ing growth areas.
“ Title V ” Commissions.—Several months after passage of the
Appalachian Act, Congress passed the Public Works and
Economic Development Act, title V of which authorizes the
Secretary of Commerce to designate economic development re­
gions and “ to invite and encourage the States wholly or partially
located within such regions to establish appropriate multistate
regional commissions” composed of a Federal co-chairman and
a member from each participating State. Amendments in 1967
and 1969 provided the title V Commissions with limited au­
thority to make grants and influence the pattern of economic
development. Six Commissions have been established to date:
Ozarks, Four Corners, New England, Upper Great Lakes,
Coastal Plains, and Upper Missouri.
The title V Commissions closely resemble the Appala­
chian Regional Commission although they have fewer
powers and resources. The Commissions have sought to tailor
their programs to the needs of their particular regions. Given the
diversity of needs among the six regions, no one investment
strategy has been adopted by all Commissions.
River Basin Commissions.— Title II of the Water Resources
Planning Act authorizes the President to establish river basin
planning commissions on request of either the Federal inter­
departmental Water Resources Council or half the States in
the basin. Membership consists of a chairman appointed by
46



57
the President, one member from each affected Federal agency,
and one member from each State. This act followed many years
of effort to create a system of water resources planning that is
multipurpose and basinwide in character. Four title II Commis­
sions were set up in 1967— Pacific Northwest, Great Lakes,
Souris-Red River, and New England. The Ohio River Basins
Commission came into being in January 1971.
In summary, 12 new Federal-multistate instrumentalities have
grown out of the three 1965 statutes: seven in the economic
development field and five in the water resources area. These
Federal-State Commissions differ from compacts in that they
are created by Federal statute alone. In most cases, State par­
ticipation occurs at the request of the Governor, and legislative
ratification comes indirectly through appropriations to cover the
State’s share of Commission expenses. Congressional appropria­
tions supply most of the operating funds for the Commission.
Consequently, they are primarily devices for rational­
izing Federal investments in a region rather than full-scale
Federal-State cooperative ventures.
In 1971, the President took steps to overcome some of the
weaknesses of the present system of interstate development com­
missions by proposing a new Rural Development Revenue Shar­
ing Program. This program would make available to the rest
of the Nation those benefits enjoyed by the Appalachian States
under the Appalachian Regional Development Act; the avail­
ability of money to be used for a wide range of development
projects, a comprehensive developmental planning process rising
up from the grassroots, and the opportunity for the States volun­
tarily to create interstate regional commissions to handle regional
problems. Rural revenue sharing would include the programs
of the Appalachian Regional Commission, but would keep the
Commission intact.
Federal Corporations Cutting Across State Lines

The only completely Federal regional body is the Tennessee
Valley Authority established in May 1933, covering parts of
seven States. Originally created with a broad mandate for total
economic, social, and physical development of the Tennessee
River Valley, T V A is now confined largely to flood control and
electric power generation.




47

58
Conclusion

Cooperation among States is an inevitable and important
means of dealing with problems of national growth. In our fed­
eral system of government, State policies are the basic building
blocks of national policy.
The effectiveness of interstate cooperation depends on full
partnership between consenting States. Several interstate efforts
in recent years have been initiated and dominated by the Fed­
eral Government— with the inevitable result that they are not
fully integrated into the State legislative, appropriation, and
administrative processes. Consequently, their impact on regional
development has been limited. In contrast, those interstate in­
stitutions arising from a felt need for cooperatioii between two or
more States have tended to survive and be effective in the activ­
ities for which they are chartered.
LOCAL GOVERNMENTS AND NATIONAL GROWTH
As noted earlier in this chapter, State governments have
not generally chosen to exercise the very substantial powers
they are given in our constitutional system for the purpose of
directing growth and development. Instead, they have delegated
many of their most important powers to lower levels— counties,
townships, and municipalities. It is at these levels that the vast
majority of governmental decisions affecting growth and devel­
opment are made.
Below the State level, tens of thousands of governmental
bodies are involved in shaping growth. For most decisions con­
cerning land use, these units possess the perspective needed to
resolve conflicting views and carry out cogent policies. Other
problems, however, do not respect political boundaries.
At no point in the structure of the American federal system
of government are problems of intergovernmental relations so
marked, varied, and difficult as in large metropolitan areas.
Within such areas, Federal, State, county, and municipal agen­
cies, usually supplemented by a host of special purpose
units of local government, must carry on their functions in close
juxtaposition, subject to an extremely complicated framework
of Federal, State, and local laws and administrative regulations.
Just as States have voluntarily come together to deal with
common problems, local governments have often cooperated
48



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among themselves when their mutual interests dictated it. Ex­
amples of such voluntary cooperation at the local level include:
interjurisdictional agencies such as the Bay Area Rapid Transit
District, the Detroit Council of Governments, and the Washing­
ton Suburban Sanitary Commission; interjurisdictional agree­
ments covering hot pursuit and reciprocal fire assistance; and the
entire array of interjurisdictional commercial transactions such as
the sale of water by one locality to another.
Cooperation among the many parts of the metropolitan area
is increasing— rapidly in some places and gradually in others.
This emergence of metropolitan cooperation is based on many
factors, but two deserve special mention. The first is the demand
for better services by the residents of the area, together with the
fact that it is no longer feasible, physically or fiscally, to conduct
large and expensive governmental functions, such as mass transit,
sewage treatment, and solid waste disposal, on a jurisdiction-byjurisdiction basis. The second is the influence of Federal policies
and programs, particularly the implementation of the Intergov­
ernmental Cooperation Act of 1968, which provides for areawide
review and comment on most applications for Federal grants-inaid. The nature and scope of emerging interlocal cooperation
within the metropolitan areas is influencing National and State
growth policies.
Single - or Multi-Purpose Authorities

One of the reasons for the growth of special districts in Amer­
ican government has been the spilling over of governmental
functions across the boundaries of individual municipalities, cou­
pled with the unwillingness or inability of counties to assume
responsibility for these functions. Preliminary information from
the 1972 census of governments indicates that special districts
grew in number just as rapidly between 1967 and 1972 as in the
preceding 5-year period.
The formation of a special district can add to the proliferation
of local government units in metropolitan areas and make the
formulation of land use, transportation, and other urban growth
policies more difficult. However, the number of special districts
is likely to increase until general purpose units of government
begin to meet these needs more consistently or other institutional
arrangements are devised.




49

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An intermediate step between special purpose districts and
multi jurisdictional general purpose governments is illustrated
by the Metropolitan Council of Minneapolis-St. Paul. This coun­
cil, created by act of the legislature, is composed of members rep­
resenting metropolitan districts of substantially equal population.
The council performs planning and other coordination service
functions for the Twin Cities. In addition, it exercises policy and
financial coordination over water, sewer, airports, and certain
other single-purpose authorities within the metropolitan area.
It has limited tax power— a power that sets it apart from other
regional councils and makes it a limited form of metropolitan
government.
The State has authorized an innovative step toward sharing
the commercial-industrial property tax base regardless of where
in the metropolitan area the taxable property is located. Begin­
ning in 1972, each community’s tax base will include an as­
signed share of the region’s commercial-industrial base put in
place after 1971. None of the existing industrial-commercial base
is shared, but 40 percent of all growth beyond 1971 will be shared
on a regionwide basis. All other assessments, such as those on
residential property, will continue to go to the governing unit in
the locality where the building is physically located. The distribu­
tion of the shared industrial-commercial taxes will be determined
basically by population, but will be adjusted so that a commu­
nity will receive a larger share if its property valuation is below
the metropolitan average per capita and a smaller share if its
valuation is above average. In other words, the tax base is not
only partially shared, but the shared proceeds are distributed in
part on an equalizing basis.
This approach will lessen the competition among localities to
increase the industrial and commercial property within their
borders. It also may help break down the barriers which have
been created between central cities and their suburbs and be­
tween suburbs and surrounding rural areas. The new Minnesota
law works entirely within the present framework of local gov­
ernment ; no new agency is created and no additional tax is im­
posed.
Counties as Regional Governments

The influence of county governments in urban affairs varies
tremendously. The budget of Los Angeles County exceeds the
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combined budgets of a dozen States, while counties in New Eng­
land do little more than serve as judicial and administrative dis­
tricts for the States. Counties in some major urban industrial
States are strong and capable units of general purpose govern­
ment, as in New York, Maryland, California, and Virginia.
In many parts of the country, county government is being
modernized, and is taking on urban service functions previously
performed by municipalities. This change in the role of the coun­
ty was made necessary by the growth of unincorporated areas
around cities. When these areas acquire a sizable urbanized popu­
lation, the county is often called upon to provide urban services.
In the last two decades, this has led to a new type of local gov­
ernment the “ urban county.” In function, attitude, and perform­
ance, the typical urban county resembles a large city. A recent
survey of metropolitan counties, for example, showed that 114 of
the 150 responding were responsible for planning and 82 had
zoning authority. Half of these counties were administering
building and housing codes, and over 80 were involved in parks
and recreation.
For decades city-county consolidation has been discussed by
scholars and civic leaders as a way of simplifying and improving
local government structure in urban areas. Under this arrange­
ment the government of the principal city and that of the county
merge, leaving only one local government in the county (aside,
perhaps, from local school districts).
County consolidation has been achieved only rarely, since
voters often opposed this kind of local government reorganiza­
tion. However, in the past few years some major city-county con­
solidations have been approved, including Jacksonville-Duval
County, Fla.; Nashville-Davidson County, Tenn.; IndianapolisMarion County, Ind.; and the city and borough of Juneau,
Alaska. The National Association of Counties reports that citycounty consolidation studies presently are underway in over 70
counties in the United States.
One possible basis for mutual accommodation of the fiscal and
political goals of central cities and suburbs is the “ two tier” ap­
proach typified by Toronto and, in a different form, by Dade
County, Fla. Under this structure, most existing units of govern­
ment are retained for strictly local functions while some of the
more costly and complicated functions are shifted to the county
or other areawide government. The two-tier approach permits
the retention and expansion of political power in the core city
51
81-745 O - 72 - pt. 1 - - 5




62
while allowing the “ metropolitanizing” of functions which the
suburbs and central city are willing to surrender to an areawide
body. It also makes growth policies easier to formulate at the
local level because of the greater geographic area encompassed
by counties relative to their individual components.
Multijurisdictional Councils

At the present time, there are approximately 650 multijuris­
dictional planning bodies in existence, covering urban and rural
areas alike. In metropolitan areas, these bodies tend to be coun­
cils of governments. The first metropolitan council was formed
in 1954 when the supervisors of six counties in the Detroit area
arranged to meet periodically to discuss common problems. Since
that time, about 250 councils of government have come into
existence. Outside of the metropolitan areas, these multijurisdic­
tional bodies usually take the form of a substate planning district
discussed earlier.
All of these bodies have much in common. Typically:
• They encompass a specified portion of one or more States;
• Their primary purpose is increasing cooperation among the
local governments of the area;
• They have programs for physical or human resource plan­
ning, which may involve review and coordination of local
government programs and the provision of technical assist­
ance to local governments;
• They have a governing body composed of locally elected
officials and appointed representatives of community inter­
ests or the public at large; and
• They are funded in part by member local governments.
To an increasing extent, multijurisdictional councils are being
expressly provided for in State statutes. As indicated previously,
two-thirds of the States have divided themselves into substate
planning districts, each with a governing body made up of repre­
sentatives of local governments included within the district
boundary. Several States are beginning to provide financial aid
to their areawide councils.
Multijurisdictional councils vary greatly in the scope and
vigor of their activities. Some are evolving into public areawide
governments. Others have become, in effect, multipurpose au­
thorities or districts, such as the Twin Cities Metropolitan Coun­
cil. Still others are confining their activities to the mandatory

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A-95 review discussed below. Future growth in the power and
influence of regional councils may result from action by the State
governments— as has recently occurred in Virginia, Texas, and
Minnesota— or from the initiative of member local governments
themselves, as illustrated by the Metropolitan Washington Coun­
cil of Governments and the Association of Bay Area Govern­
ments in the San Francisco Area.
The “ A -9 5 ” Review Process.—Section 204 of the Demonstra­
tion Cities and Metropolitan Development Act of 1966 requires
that specific types of Federal grant-in-aid applications from in­
dividual local governments located within standard metropolitan
statistical areas be subject to review and comment by “ an areawide agency designated to perform metropolitan or regional
planning for the area within which the assistance is to be used.”
This statutory requirement necessitated the creation of areawide
agencies where they did not already exist.
The scope of the review and comment process was broadened
considerably by section 401(a) of the Intergovernmental Co­
operation Act of 1968 which provided that “ the President shall
* * * establish rules and regulations governing the formulation,
evaluation, and review of Federal programs and projects hav­
ing a significant impact on area and community develop­
ment. * * *”
The Office of Management and Budget, acting for the Presi­
dent, issued Circular A-95 on July 24, 1969 (with revisions in
1970 and 1971), covering all major Federal grants that might
have a substantial impact beyond the boundaries of the applicant
local jurisdiction. Grants covered include basic water and sew­
age facilities, outdoor recreation, highway planning and construc­
tion, airport planning and construction, hospital facilities, law
enforcement facilities, community action programs, and over 40
others. Applications or notifications to apply receive an areawide
review and a review by the State government. These reviews are
conducted simultaneously, usually within a 30-day period.
Section 204 has led to the creation of areawide agencies in
nearly all metropolitan areas. But for many other reasons as well,
the concept of interlocal cooperation has gained reasonable ac­
ceptance by units of general local government in the Nation’s
metropolitan and rural areas. Some States are beginning to re­
quire reviews of State-aided local projects similar to those pro­
vided for under A-95. This assures that State-aided facilities and




53

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programs are being carried on in a manner consistent with State
or areawide planning.
The overall results of the A-95 review process have been en­
couraging. Some of the review agencies have been able to play
a very constructive role. For example, the review agency in the
Dayton, Ohio Metropolitan Area— the Miami Valley Regional
Planning Council— was able to secure agreement among the
member local governments on a plan for allocating responsibility
among them for developing low- and moderate-income housing.
The review body for the Washington, D.C. Metropolitan Area
(Metropolitan Washington Council of Governments) developed
a model fair housing ordinance that has been adopted by several
of its member governments.
The Intergovernmental Cooperation Act is addressed to the
relatively specific problem of assuring that major Federal pro­
grams in a given jurisdiction are consistent with and will not
disrupt well-considered development plans for the area. It says,
in effect, that Federal funds should further State and metropoli­
tan plans and development goals. It invites the States and metro­
politan areas to take the lead in developing policies and priorities
which will guide the expenditure and management of all public
funds— Federal, State, and local.
In summary, the A-95 review process appears to be a useful
instrument for increasing interlocal cooperation in metropolitan
areas and for helping formulate and implement National, State,
and local growth policies.

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CHAPTER IV

ADMINISTRATION ACTIONS TO DEAL WITH THE
CHALLENGES OF GROWTH
PAST FEDERAL INVOLVEMENT
Federal policies have significantly shaped our Nation’s de­
velopment throughout its history— sometimes intentionally,
sometimes inadvertently. During the 19th century, the Fed­
eral Government actively encouraged population settlement
in the vast, and largely uninhabited interior sections of the coun­
try. Land grants under the Homestead Act provided incentives
for private citizens to locate in the new territories. At the same
time, Federal aid to the fledgling railroad industry linked devel­
oped and undeveloped parts of the country, facilitating the eco­
nomic growth of the new settlements. Federal immigration
policy permitted large numbers of new citizens to come to our
shores in the years prior to World War I, contributing signifi­
cantly to the rapid growth and development of the Nation.
Other actions by the Federal Government, though less dra­
matic, also had a major impact on the growth of particular areas.
Such actions included the location of Federal installations, the
placement of Federal contracts, and the development of an early
highway network.
Beginning in the 1930’s, there was a general expansion of Fed­
eral involvement in domestic affairs. This led to a number of
new Federal initiatives affecting growth and development:
• The National Resources Board and its two successors repre­
sented a unique attempt at national planning before the
effort was terminated in 1943.
• The Resettlement Administration, under authority of the
National Industrial Recovery Act, initiated a wide range of
housing and resettlement projects across the country.
• The Tennessee .Valley Authority was designed in part to
accelerate the economic development of an entire region.




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• Federal assistance was authorized for home financing and
low-rent public housing.
During the postwar era two historic pieces of legislation were
enacted that addressed the two basic factors which underlie
growth: national economic development and orderly commu­
nity development. The Full Employment Act of 1946 established
the national goal of full employment for the Nation’s work force.
The Housing Act of 1949 established the national goal of “ a de­
cent home in a suitable living environment for every American
family.5
5
In the 19505 under President Eisenhower, a massive program
s
of Federal assistance to highways was initiated, opening up vast
suburban areas for the construction of new housing. In the
central cities, the Urban Renewal program was relied on to
change land use patterns.
More recently, the Federal Government’s reaction to problems
associated with national growth has taken the form of hundreds
of new, but narrow purpose, grant programs.
ADMINISTRATIVE AND PROGRAM INITIATIVES
Efforts to deal more effectively with the challenges of national
growth were begun by this Administration immediately upon
taking office.
On January 23, 1969, as one of the first official acts of his
Administration, the President established an Urban Affairs
Council to advise and assist “ in the development of a national
urban policy, having regard both to immediate and to longrange concerns, and to priorities among them.5
5
Later, a Rural Affairs Council was established to assist the
President in the development of policies for rural areas, and to
assure that the interrelationships between rural and urban prob­
lems are taken into account in designing Federal programs.
These Councils, and later the President’s Advisory Committee
on Executive Organization, the Domestic Council, and the Office
of Management and Budget, have vigorously addressed them­
selves to the task of making government work better in dealing
with the challenges of growth. The product of these concerted
efforts has been a set of forceful policies designed to :
1. Strengthen the capacity of State and local governments,
to solve the problems that past growth has brought, and

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to take advantage of the opportunities that future growth
will bring;
2. Recast the structure of the Federal Government to make it
more effective in assisting State and local governments carry
out their responsibilities; and
3. Improve Federal approaches to growth problems where
national interests are at stake.
Underlying each of these policies is the need to make Federal
programs more responsive to the people and their locally elected
officials, both in terms of the goals they seek to achieve and the
way they deliver Federal assistance. This is an extremely impor­
tant feature of the President’s policy toward growth.
Where the Administration has been able to move ahead with
its policies toward national growth under existing law, it has
done so. Where new authority is needed to implement its poli­
cies, the Administration has taken the lead in drafting and work­
ing for passage of appropriate legislation.
This chapter describes Administration actions undertaken to
date to promote more balanced and orderly growth. The fol­
lowing chapter makes recommendations for additional legisla­
tion which is needed to strengthen our ability as a Nation to
meet the challenges of growth.
Strengthening the Federal System

The Administration has acted to facilitate delivery of Federal
services and to improve communications among State, local, and
Federal officials. These include:
• Decentralization of decisionmaking authority in numerous
Federal grant programs to bring administration of these pro­
grams closer to the people they serve.
• Reduction of redtape and processing time within the Fed­
eral categorical grant system, through a rationalization of
consistency procedures, joint funding simplification, inter­
governmental cooperation, grant consolidation, and gen­
erally improved coordination.
• Establishment of uniform regional boundaries for Federal
domestic agencies and increasing emphasis on Federal Re­
gional Councils.




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• Establishment of the Environmental Protection Agency to
consolidate various Federal programs for protecting the
environment.
Rural Development

The Administration has taken a number of steps to improve
our rural development programs and has substantially increased
program funding. For example, the funding of principal rural
development programs in the Department of Agriculture this
year— $2.8 billion— is more than four times that of fiscal year
1961 and twice that of fiscal year 1969. All told, 29 of the 34 rural
development programs in that Department have been expanded
since 1969.
In addition, the Department of Housing and Urban Develop­
ment has nearly tripled its grants for nonmetropolitan planning
districts since 1969. In the last fiscal year, 155 districts received
$3.4 million in grants. Rural housing assistance, with an emphasis
on low- and moderate-income families, has reached a record level
of $1.6 billion under the Farmers Home Administration pro­
gram— more than triple the 1969 level.
Transportation

Improved urban transportation is an important contributing
factor to an evolving national growth policy. During the past 2
years, expanded programs with environmental safeguards have
been initiated to improve urban transportation. By enacting the
Urban Mass Transportation Assistance Act of 1970, Congress
supported the Administration’s proposal to provide substantial
Federal funds in support of mass transportation— $3.1 billion for
the first 5 years of the program. Between 1971 and 1973, the
Urban Mass Transportation Administration will have committed
over $2 billion for mass transit, including almost $1.7 billion for
capital improvements.
The Federal-Aid Highway Act of 1970 also authorized new
programs to meet the need for balanced transportation in urban
areas, including fringe and corridor parking, airport and waterport access, and a Federal-aid urban system.
The urban system involves local officials, in cooperation with
State highway departments, in the designation of arterials for
Federal aid. This program provides a special source of funds for

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improving a large number of major roadways and allows greater
flexibility in the use of highway programs to provide for balanced
transportation.
Another important feature of the 1970 legislation is the Urban
Highway Public Transit Program, which permits the States to
increase the efficiency of highways in transporting people rather
than cars. Projects now underway include the exclusive bus lane
on the Shirley Highway in northern Virginia, and similar projects
in Los Angeles, northern New Jersey, Seattle, Milwaukee, Boston,
and San Juan, P.R.
National Environmental Policy Act Implementation

The Administration has implemented the National Environ­
mental Policy Act to assure that the growth implications of po­
tential Federal and federally assisted activities are taken into
account before final decisions on them are made. Section 102
(2) (C ) of the act requires that Federal agencies issue for public
comment detailed statements analyzing the environmental im­
pact of proposed actions. Under guidelines set by the President’s
Council on Environmental Quality, agencies are required to
assess the primary and secondary effects of a proposed action—
such as a new highway, airport, or dam— on an area’s environ­
ment and growth patterns. This process has enhanced citizens’
capacity to play a constructive role in the debate over growth
policy.
Use of Federal Land

An important part of national growth policy will involve future
decisions on the use of federally owned land— both traditional
“ public domain” land and acquired property that becomes sur­
plus. Congress is now considering recommendations by the Public
Land Law Review Commission to permit public lands to be more
effectively used for future growth. This Administration has also
proposed legislation that will make it easier to transfer surplus
Federal lands for use as new communities. The Property Review
Board, established by President Nixon, is overseeing a review of
the Government’s holdings by Federal agencies to identify un­
needed property, and is seeking to insure that Federal property is
used as effectively as possible.




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Housing

This Administration has sought to increase the housing op­
portunities of all Americans. Housing production and assistance,
especially for low- and moderate-income families, has been great­
ly expanded over the past 3 years to the highest levels in our his­
tory. In 1971, total housing starts neared 2.1 million units, almost
25 percent of which were for low- and moderate-income fam­
ilies under Federal housing programs providing direct finan­
cial assistance. Programs and policies also have been implement­
ed by the Department of Housing and Urban Development and
the National Bureau of Standards to encourage the more effi­
cient production of housing throughout the country. Toward this
objective, these agencies have worked closely with the States
through the National Conference of States on Building Codes
and Standards.
Racial barriers have prevented minority groups from their full
share of the benefits from national growth. The Presidential
statement on equal housing opportunity of June 11, 1971, com­
mitted the Federal Government to work with State and local
governments in expanding the freedom and the opportunity for
all Americans to obtain adequate housing regardless of race.
N ew Community Assistance

As of December 31, 1971, the Federal New Communities pro­
gram had agreed to help private developers undertake the de­
velopment of seven new population centers, with several more
under consideration. These centers will serve the objective of
orderly growth within metropolitan areas by offering the promise
of innovative, well-planned development and an attractive liv­
ing and working environment. It is expected that these new cen­
ters will set a standard of excellence in planning, conservation,
housing balance, education, health, and community participa­
tion.
All of the approved projects have strong programs for equal
opportunity in housing and employment, and will contain a sub­
stantial amount of housing for persons of low and moderate in­
come.
Planning Requirements

Many Federal programs require planning at the State, areawide, and local levels as a prerequisite for Federal grants.
60



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At present, efforts are being made within the executive branch
to improve and integrate planning requirements among Federal
agencies. For example, within the last year the Environmental
Protection Agency and the Department of Housing and Urban
Development have agreed to integrate their water and waste
management planning requirements. These agencies are now
engaged in efforts to develop unified water and waste manage­
ment planning requirements with the Economic Development
Administration and the Farmers Home Administration.
The Department of Transportation presently has metropol­
itan-based pilot projects underway in each of the 10 Federal
regions to integrate highway, airport, and mass transportation
planning.
A—
95 Reviews

One of the principal means for States and local governments to
control development within their borders is through Office of
Management and Budget Circular A-95, first issued by this
Administration. This circular provides an opportunity for States
and areawide agencies to review and comment on projects pro­
posed for funding under a variety of Federal programs. In this
way, it provides State and local governments with a potentially
powerful instrument for coordinating growth.
Federal Property Insurance Programs

Urban crime, the riots of the 1960’s, and the migration of many
middle-income families out of the central city have forced many
central city businesses— especially small businesses— to relocate.
The exodus of such businesses and the resulting erosion of prop­
erty tax bases have been key factors in the decline of central cities.
In inner city areas, basic crime and riot insurance protection
often is not available. Since lending institutions require borrow­
ers to have basic property insurance, existing businesses have
found it difficult to obtain financing for modernization while new
businesses have had difficulty obtaining startup funds.
In order to improve property insurance protection for central
city businesses and homeowners, the Federal Insurance Admin­
istration has implemented two property insurance programs
authorized by the Urban Property Protection and Reinsurance
Act of 1968, as amended in 1970.




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Under the first program, riot reinsurance protection is provided
to primary insurers that cooperate in State FAIR plans (Fair
Access to Insurance Requirements). These plans are designed
to give urban residents and property owners in 26 States, the
District of Columbia, and Puerto Rico access to basic fire,
extended coverage, and vandalism and malicious mischief
insurance.
Under the second program, which became effective on August
1, 1971, the FI A provides direct crime insurance policies at
affordable rates covering losses from burglary, robbery, and theft
(with appropriate deductible provisions and requirements for
reasonable protective and loss-preventive measures and devices)
in nine States and the District of Columbia.
More than $20 billion of basic property insurance has been
provided to over 1 million urban area residents and property
owners through FAIR plans. The new crime insurance program
has already provided more than 2,000 direct crime insurance
policies.
Planned Variations

On July 29, 1971, 20 existing model cities were selected to par­
ticipate in a planned variation demonstration designed to test
some of the concepts of urban community development revenue
sharing. O f the 20 cities selected for this demonstration, 16 are
receiving additional funds to implement a citywide Model Cities
program with only the minimum Federal control required by
statute and with a procedure to enable the local chief executive
to coordinate Federal resources available under programs that
affect his city. The other four cities are participating only in the
procedure for chief executive review and comment on Federal
programs. A total of $79.5 million in additional Model Cities
funds will be available to these 20 cities in fiscal year 1972.
Although planned variations focuses only on the Model Cities
program, the Department of Health, Education, and Welfare,
the Office of Economic Opportunity, the Department of Labor,
the Department of Transportation, and other agencies will im­
plement, to the extent possible, the minimum control and chief
executive review and comment procedures in their categorical
grant programs in the 20 cities. This implementation will
broaden the citywide Model Cities program into a truly compre­
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hensive method for the city’s chief executive to use in approach­
ing the community development problems of the city.
Annual Arrangements

Prior to the introduction of revenue sharing, an effort is being
made to fit Federal categorical aids into locally designed strat­
egies for total community development. Annual arrangements
between the Department of Housing and Urban Development
and a number of localities are being developed to assure coordi­
nation of grant programs and to provide a standard for evaluat­
ing specific project applications. This approach seeks to demon­
strate that, given a realistic forecast of Federal funding,
communities will plan for community development in an effective
manner.
Project selection criteria have been or are being developed for
various community development grant programs. These criteria
will help localities identify projects that are likely to be funded
for inclusion in their annual arrangement proposals.
Property Tax Reform

During the period from 1960 to 1970, the burden of the resi­
dential property tax more than doubled, from $15 to $34 billion.
As a regressive levy, the residential property tax falls most
heavily on low-income families, senior citizens, families with fixed
incomes, and farmers. Its inequity is compounded by a myriad
of assessment formulas.
The bulk of public education support comes from the local
property tax. However, in a series of recent court decisions, this
tax has been held to be a violation of the constitutional guarantee
of equal protection because it makes the quality of a child’s ed­
ucation dependent upon the assessed value of property in his
school district.
In 1970, anticipating this crisis, President Nixon appointed a
Commission on School Finance to investigate the nature of the
problem and recommend solutions. Its report will be transmitted
early in March 1972. The Departments of Health, Education,
and Welfare and the Treasury have been asked to examine the
problem as well. In addition, the President has called upon the
Advisory Commission on Intergovernmental Relations, a bi­




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partisan panel including Members of the Congress, Governors,
mayors, and county officials, to study the feasibility of replacing
the residential school property tax with a Federal Value Added
Tax. Areas of special concentration will include the scope of the
taxable base, the optimum income tax credit to avoid regressivity, renter relief, and the maintenance of local control.

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CHAPTER V

ADMINISTRATION RECOMMENDATIONS
TO THE CONGRESS
As the findings of this report make clear, the Nation’s growth
is shaped by countless decisions made by individuals and firms
seeking to fulfill their own objectives. Few of these decisions,
individually, take on national importance. The vast majority of
them, in fact, have significance only within a single local juris­
diction, or at most, within a single State. Thus, it is all but certain
that future problems of growth will be met at these levels, regard­
less of any attempts to control the growth process by the Federal
Government.
During the 1960’s , the Federal Government’s reaction to
problems associated with national growth took the form of
hundreds of new, but narrow purpose, grant programs. These
programs have sometimes achieved noteworthy successes
in individual localities. Often, however, they have not. In many
instances, categorical grants have compounded the problems of
growth and development which they were designed to ameliorate.
The phenomenon known as “ planner’s blight” , often a feature
of urban renewal, provides a good example of the kind of un­
anticipated and undesirable consequences that can result from
well-intentioned Federal programs.
In sum, the plethora of narrow categorical programs has:
• Fragmented control at the local level, by working through
semiautonomous local agencies operating independently of
elected officials;
• Fragmented local thinking and innovation by virtually
requiring local officials to approach their community prob­
lems on a project-by-project basis;
• Wasted local talent by subjecting local officials to the timeconsuming requirements of an aid system which is fraught
with redtape;




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• Substituted the priorities of Federal civil servants for those
of the people’s elected State and local officials; and
• Frustrated State and local officials who often find themselves
with little opportunity for developing and implementing the
solutions to public problems of which they are capable.
It is clear that the answer to growth will not be found in a pro­
liferation of new Federal categorical programs, enacted without
forethought as to the counterforces which, in time, they may set
in motion and without heed to their fiscal consequences.
LEGISLATIVE INITIATIVES
Part of the task before us involves the eradication of outmoded,
duplicative, and often counterproductive governmental pro­
grams, together with the cumbersome and inefficient structures
administering them. But this is not enough. More importantly,
we must design programs and structures that can respond swiftly,
effectively, and responsively to growth problems and opportuni­
ties. In response to this challenge, and in accordance with section
702 of the Housing and Urban Development Act of 1970, the
Administration recommends the enactment of the following pro­
posals during the second session of the 92d Congress.
Government Reorganization

One of the President’s most important recommendations con­
cerning national growth involves the most comprehensive reform
in the structure of the Federal Government ever proposed.
Enactment of legislation proposed by the Administration to
establish a Department of Community Development would
bring to one Federal entity the responsibility for administering
scores of rural and urban assistance programs now scattered
through half a dozen departments and agencies. This reform
would have a profoundly favorable impact on the orderly de­
velopment of our Nation, and would permit a more balanced use
of our resources for decades to come.
The problems of community development in rural, urban, and
suburban communities are closely interrelated. Indeed, the
economic, physical, and social forces that have contributed to the
stagnation and decline of rural communities, have also intensified
the crowding— sometimes followed by abandonment— of slum
areas in central cities and the often chaotic development of sub­

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urban and outlying areas. What is presently lacking is an entity
at the Federal level capable of providing community develop­
ment assistance in a way that responds to mutually dependent
rural, urban, and suburban problems.
The administration of community development programs is
now hopelessly fragmented. Some community development needs
of urban and rural America, including housing, water and sewer
facilities, and open space, are served by the Department of Hous­
ing and Urban Development. At the same time, rural community
development needs in the area of housing, water and waste dis­
posal facilities, and electrification are served by the Farmers
Home Administration and the Rural Electrification Administra­
tion of the Department of Agriculture. Certain other physical
needs of economically underdeveloped areas, largely rural or
semirural, are served by the Economic Development Adminis­
tration of the Department of Commerce. Meanwhile, the De­
partment of Transportation administers such significant com­
munity development-related programs as the Federal Highway
Program and the Urban Mass Transportation Program. Finally,
the Community Action Program is administered by the Office of
Economic Opportunity.
The proposed Department of Community Development would
have responsibility for administering all of the community de­
velopment programs noted above. It would be an institution at
the highest level of the Federal Government responsible for as­
suring that Federal programs respond to closely related urban,
rural, and suburban problems in a balanced manner, providing
a choice of attractive economic and social environments for our
people.
In addition to strengthening the capacity of the Federal Gov­
ernment to deal with problems of national growth, the creation
of a Department of Community Development would bring sub­
stantial benefits to local officials. The high degree of decentraliza­
tion contemplated for the field structure of the Department,
together with the broader range of community development pro­
grams earmarked for it, would enable local officials to secure
advice and assistance at one nearby Federal office.
Revenue Sharing

State and local governments are best able to make specific
decisions about land use, the location of transportation and com-


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munity facilities, the delivery of public services, and environ­
mental protection that are responsive to the needs of affected
citizens. However, if these governments are to be effective in
shaping national growth, they must be strengthened.
The President’s proposals for sharing Federal revenues with
State and local governments are therefore of critical importance.
Together, general and special revenue sharing would provide
these governments with an annual total of $17.6 billion, of which
nearly $6.6 billion would be new money over and above what
States and localities are now receiving.
G e n e ra I R ev en u e Sharing

The unrestricted return of funds to State and local units of
government under general revenue sharing, along with the fund­
ing certainty inherent in the program, would significantly in­
crease State and local capacity to deal with critical local prob­
lems.
S pecia l R e ve n u e Sharing

The special revenue sharing programs do not require the sub­
mission of plans to the Federal Government for Federal approval.
However, they do require that a statewide planning process be
developed which involves the elected officials of the general pur­
pose units of government, and thus is responsive to the particular
programmatic and institutional needs of each individual State.
Urban Community Development Revenue Sharing.— In his
1971 message on urban community development revenue shar­
ing, the President said: “ The result of * * * fragmented and
inflexible grant programs has been a highly irrational pattern
of development in many communities. Rather than focusing and
concentrating resources in a coordinated assault on a common
problem, the categorical grant system works to divide and scatter
these resources and severely diminish their impact.5
5
Urban community development revenue sharing seeks to cor­
rect these serious deficiencies. Under this program, funds now
channeled to communities through existing categorical grant
programs— Urban Renewal, Model Cities, Neighborhood Facili­
ties, Open Space, and Rehabilitation Loans— would be distrib­
uted on a formula basis directly to communities throughout the
Nation. These communities would be able to use Federal devel­

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opment assistance on the basis of their own choices, their own
needs, and their own priorities. Moreover, they would be able
to plan and implement longer term programs dealing with
growth and development, since urban revenue sharing would
make the amount of Federal community development assistance
a locality could expect to receive each year more predictable.
Transportation Revenue Sharing.— The President has also
proposed a new program of transportation special revenue shar­
ing that would consolidate the major Federal transportation
assistance grants, except the Interstate Highway Program, into
two elements: a fund for general transportation activities of $2.2
billion, and a fund for mass transit capital investment of $635
million. The funds in the general transportation element would
be allocated to the States on a formula basis, with the provision
that a substantial percentage be passed through to local units of
government. Ten percent of the general transportation element
would be retained for direct allocation by the Secretary of Trans­
portation.
This transportation assistance is now made available through
10 narrow-purpose categorical grant programs that severely limit
local initiative and the opportunity for exercising a balanced
approach to transportation. By placing responsibility for develop­
ment decisions in the hands of State and local officials responsive
to local needs and trends, transportation revenue sharing would
make it far easier to plan ahead for orderly growth at the State
and community level.
Education Revenue Sharing.— Education revenue sharing
would bring together more than 30 major Office of Education
programs, representing approximately $3.2 billion in grants. In
so doing, it would revitalize the relationship between the Federal
Government and State and local governments, stimulating crea­
tivity and new initiatives by those responsible for operating local
schools.
These funds would provide support for educational activities
in broad areas where there are strong national interests in
strengthening school programs. The national priority areas in­
cluded are compensatory education for the disadvantaged, edu­
cation of children afflicted by handicapping conditions, voca­
tional education, assistance to schools in areas affected by Federal
activities, and the provision of supporting services.




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Rural Community Development Revenue Sharing.— Under
the President’s proposal for rural community development reve­
nue sharing, 11 existing aid programs would be included in a new
$1.1 billion revenue sharing package to be allocated among the
States by formula. No State would receive less money than it
receives under existing arrangements. The 11 agricultural and
economic development programs to be replaced include, among
others, Resource Conservation and Developmental Program,
Tree Planting Assistance, Rural Water and Waste Disposal
Facilities, and Economic Development Assistance (except for
Indians).
This proposal would help State and local governments to slow
the outmigration that has made it so hard to build a more
diversified economy and a more vigorous community life in rural
areas.
Expanded Rural Credit

On February 1, 1972, the President proposed a $1.3 billion pro­
gram of rural development credit to create a new credit fund for
loans, loan insurance and guarantees to stimulate business expan­
sion, job development, and the construction of needed community
utilities and facilities in rural areas. This program would com­
plement the proposed rural community development revenue
sharing. It would require the Secretary of Agriculture to make
insured loan and loan guarantee allocations to the States totaling
$1,040 million, to be used under the direction of the Governors
and in accordance with State rural development plans. The
amount of guarantee authorization going to each State would be
determined by the rural revenue sharing formula, which is based
upon rural population, rural per capita income compared to the
national average, and relative population change. O f the pro­
posed loan program, 20 percent would be administered by the
Secretary of Agriculture. Sixty-five percent of the loans would
be for businesses that are in a position to expand employment in
rural areas but are unable to obtain credit elsewhere, and 35 per­
cent of the loans would be for community projects. At least
75 percent would be guaranteed by the Federal Government, but
originated and serviced by private banks and other lenders. The
Federal guarantee would cover 90 percent of the loan, to insure
retention of economic interest by the private lender.
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The proposed companion programs of rural development
revenue sharing and rural development credit would constitute
a major new thrust toward coping with the problems of de­
clining job opportunities and inadequate community facilities in
rural areas.
Planning and Management Assistance

Money is not the only resource needed to meet the challenges of
growth. Effective governmental institutions staffed with capable
officials are needed to put this money to effective use. The Presi­
dent, therefore, has proposed a new planning and management
program designed to help State and local elected officials manage
their resources to achieve local— as well as certain national—
objectives. This program significantly complements all the rev­
enue sharing initiatives of this Administration. Planning and
management assistance would strengthen the ability of State and
local governments to make decisions and to implement those
decisions successfully: It would also provide new opportunities
for elected chief executives at all levels of government to improve
management and evaluation techniques. And it would enable
States to coordinate all aspects of urban and rural development.
The planning and management proposal would offer financial
assistance, without any matching requirement, to Governors,
mayors, and county executives to aid them in further develop­
ing their executive management capabilities. Examples of the
activities that would be assisted include the development of better
budgetary procedures, administrative reorganization programs,
modem information systems, improved personnel recruiting tech­
niques, and other activities that will help State and local officials
better handle their executive responsibilities.
National Land Use Policy

Early in 1971, as part of his environmental program, the Presi­
dent proposed a national land use policy program, with important
implications for growth and development. This proposal would
encourage States to assume responsibility for dealing with de­
velopment decisions that have a significant land use impact.
To be eligible for Federal assistance under the program, States
would be required to have a method of control over areas of crit­
ical environmental concern (the coastal zone, shorelands of major
rivers and lakes, scenic and historic districts, etc.), areas impacted




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by key facilities (the environs of major airports, highway inter­
changes, and parks), and large-scale development of more than
local significance. The bill would also encourage States to develop
a method for insuring developments of regional benefit.
In a message transmitted to the Congress earlier this year, the
President announced that he would offer amendments to his
original land use policy bill to require States, as part of their land
use programs, to control the siting of major transportation facili­
ties, and to impose sanctions on any State that does not establish
an adequate land use program.
The revised legislation would promote more orderly develop­
ment of urban areas, and extend governmental protection to
areas of critical environmental concern.
Our tradition of vesting autonomy in cities and other local
governments is still valid where purely local matters are involved.
The vast majority of land use decisions are of this type. However,
many decisions affecting national growth have effects that go
well beyond the boundaries of a single local jurisdiction. These
decisions require a broader perspective— the kind of perspective
that State governments possess. Consequently, the Administra­
tion’s national land use policy proposal encourages States to act
when land use questions of more than local significance are at
stake.
Powerplanf Siting

The President’s proposed Powerplant Siting Act also would
broaden the process for appraising key decisions about growth.
This measure would require the Nation’s electric utilities to un­
dertake long-range planning and to prepare and publish general
plans for their system expansions at least 10 years in advance of
construction. Each State would have a decisionmaking body to
review alternatives in order to assure the selection of optimum
sites for powerplants and large transmission lines and the in­
clusion of adequate environmental safeguards. Under the bill,
the Federal Government would issue guidelines controlling these
decisionmaking bodies, and would actually establish the agencies
in those cases where a State failed to act. Powerplant site loca­
tions would have to be approved no later than 5 years prior to
construction, and only after the views of affected officials and
citizens had been fully aired in public hearings. The decision of
the State or regional powerplant siting body would be conclu­

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sive on all matters of State or local law and would thus consoli­
date the various approvals now required at the State and local
level.
Tax Policy To Conserve Natural and Cultural Values

One important element in the proper planning of new urban
development is the protection of natural and historic values.
Coastal wetlands provide nourishment and habitat to a variety of
fish and wildlife, and they cannot be drained without harming
the ecology. In his 1972 environmental message to the Congress,
the President proposed far-reaching amendments to the Federal
tax laws designed to discourage commercial and industrial de­
velopment in coastal wetlands. The proposed amendments would
deny certain favorable tax benefits, including accelerated depre­
ciation, to developers of coastal wetlands.
The President also proposed to end the current bias in the tax
laws favoring the demolition and replacement of buildings by
providing more favorable depreciation allowances for new struc­
tures than for rehabilitated buildings. New provisions improving
the tax treatment available to owners of historic buildings were
also proposed. These proposed initiatives are designed to assure
that new growth and development does not occur at the expense
of significant natural and cultural resources.
Welfare Reform

In August 1969, the President proposed the most sweeping re­
form of welfare programs in nearly four decades. The House of
Representatives has approved the measure twice, and it now
awaits Senate action.
The Administration’s welfare reform would provide national
standards for eligibility and payments, benefits to the working
poor, strong work incentives and requirements, and high stand­
ards of program administration and integrity.
Aside from its far-reaching effects in the area of basic income
support, this measure would have important implications for eco­
nomic growth and development. The nationwide benefit stand­
ards in the welfare reform proposal are likely to provide special
impetus for growth in the South and other areas characterized by
low income and relatively low payments under current welfare
systems. Additional child care and job training opportunities and




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200,000 public service jobs would contribute to economic ad­
vance throughout the Nation.
SUMMARY
Progress toward enactment of many of these legislative pro­
posals— and especially toward reorganization of the executive
branch— has been discouragingly slow. Each of them, however,
serves important objectives of the Housing and Urban Develop­
ment Act of 1970. Together, they can enable government to
respond swiftly and effectively to growth problems and opportu­
nities. The Administration recommends their enactment during
this session of Congress.

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Mr. A s h l e y . At this time I want to thank Congressman Barrett, the
chairman of this Housing Subcommittee, for asking me to undertake
and chair these hearings. His support for the urban growth policy
provisions of the 1970 Housing Act was invaluable, and these hearings
testify to his continuing strong interest in the need for a comprehensive
national growth strategy.
Next, I want to announce two changes in this week’s schedule of wit­
nesses. On Wednesday, we had expected to have with us the chancellor
of the University of Maryland, Dr. Charles E. Bishop. Dr. Bishop
cannot be with us at that time, and we will hear instead from Mr. Roy
Drachman, president of the Urban Land Institute. Also, John Gronouski, dean of the Lyndon B. Johnson School of Public Affairs, cannot
be with us on Wednesday afternoon, and will file a statement with the
subcommittee instead.
In addition to this week’s hearings, we have asked a number of out­
T
standing individuals to submit statements to the subcommittee. These
statements will be published, along with the hearing record, late this
summer. Organizations or individuals who wish to submit statements
should contact the Housing Subcommittee staff.
Before hearing our witnesses this morning, I would like to state what
we conceive to be the purposes of these hearings.
There is now fairly widespread agreement on the need for develop­
ing a national growth strategy. The Congress’ enactment of the 1970
growth policy provisions and the President’s first growth report make
that abundantly clear.
What is not clear, however, is the question of primary responsibility
for the development of such a policy. Title V II directs the President
to take the leadership in developing a policy which “ shall serve as a
guide in making specific decisions at the national level which affect
the pattern of urban growth and shall provide a framework for de­
velopment of interstate, State, and local growth and stabilization pol­
icy.” It does not ask the President to develop a “master plan” or a “sin­
gle comprehensive national growth policy for the United States.” So
one purpose of these hearings is to more clearly spell out the actions
the Federal Government can and should take in developing policy rec­
ommendations in this area.
A second purpose is to obtain the views of outstanding individuals
with respect to the various substantive elements that rational growth
policies should involve, and their relative importance. Tax and em­
ployment policies, land use and new community development, and
government organization are only a few of the needed elements. We
need now to begin consideration of those specific policies that will
most effectively move us forward in this area.
Our witnesses this morning are Mr. Arthur Davis, vice president of
the Conservation Foundation, and Mayor Norman Y. Mineta, of San
Jose, Calif., on behalf of the U.S. Conference of Mayors and the Na­
tional League of Cities. Mr. Davis has had long experience with prob­
lems of urban growth and development, most recently as Director of
the Office of Resources Development and Deputy Assistant Secretary
for Metropolitan Development at the Department of Housing and
Urban Development. At the Conservation Foundation, Mr. Davis is re­
sponsible for directing and coordinating all foundation programs for
this outstanding institution.



86
Mayor Mineta was recently elected to his position after a very force­
ful campaign in which he emphasized the need for curbing the grow­
ing urban sprawl in the San Jose metropolitan area. He is very active
in both State and national organizations dealing with municipal
matters, and serves on the U.S. Conference of Mayors legislative
action committee.
Gentlemen, w e are very happy to have you with us, We will start
^
with Mr. Davis.
STATEMENT OF ARTHUR A. DAVIS, VICE PRESIDENT FOR OPERA­
TIONS OP THE CONSERVATION FOUNDATION, WASHINGTON, D.C.

Mr. D a vis. Thank you, Mr. Chairman. I have a statement that I
have submitted for the record. With your permission I will just hit
the highlights of it rather than reading all of it.
Mr. A s h l e y . Without objection, the full statement of Mr. Davis
will appear in the record.
Mr. D a vis. Thank you. We are most pleased to talk to you today
about national growth policy because we believe few issues are more
basic to our national future, and none is in greater need of full under­
standing b}^ the American people. There are at least three needs:
First, for facts, for analysis, and for a clear understanding of the re­
spective costs and benefits of the growth choices that remain open to
us. Second, we need full airing of all points of view. Finally, and
most pressing of all, is the need for vigorous, imaginative, effective
public leadership in opening up visions of how this country may look
and function—and feel—in the years around the corner.
In our view, the “ Report on National Growth 1972” does not address
these issues adequately. Thus, congressional review is particularly
important. We acknowledge that preparation of this first biennial
growth report was a difficult and pioneering task. But we are disap­
pointed that it fails almost entirely to confront some of the basic
issues. Moreover, it represents a step backward in at least two respects.
First, the report assumes, without examination, that growth will
continue to be a primary objective of national policy; its concern is
only that such growth be balanced and orderly. It does not address
the question, “ should there be growth,” or how much. By taking this
position, it ignores completely the contemporary debate about rela­
tionships between population, gross national product, environmental
quality, and the quality of life. Consequently, it evades the basic issue
of whether both our population and economy should be encouraged
to continue to grow. Its chief article of faith seems to be merely that
“ more is better.”
Second, the report sees no prospect for developing a general na­
tional growth strategy in less than a generation. And it cautions that,
even then, the opportunities for positive policies must be limited if
diversity, flexibility, and freedom of personal choice are to be pro­
tected. We are in full agreement, of course, with the need for protect­
ing individual rights and the democratic process; but continued mind­
less growth will, in fact, narrow our choices, reduce diversity, and limit
personal freedoms. I think it’s important to remember, too, that pol­
icy is what’s happening now. And in that sense, we have a national
growth policy, if largely by default. This “ policy” is the cumulative



87
effect of existing programs and regulations that, taken together, exert
a most profound influence on our growth. For example, consider the
growth policy that is formed by the following:
Tax incentives or disincentives (capital gains, amortization
schedules) ;
Housing policies and programs;
National transportation programs (Federal aid to highways, as­
sistance to airports, and grants and loans for mass transit);
Energy consumption policies;
Federal contract conditions and procedures; and
The 200-odd Federal grant and loan programs.
The question, then, is not whether we should have a growth policy.
We have one, fragmented, disparate, conflicting, and inadequate as it
is. The real questions are whether this aggregate constitutes the policy
we want; and if not, what do we want; and then, directing the velocity
and location of growth: how much, what kind, where, and for whose
benefit?
It is probably fair to say that there is substantial agreement on the
major goals and objectives of a national growth policy. For example,
nearly all experts speak to the need fo r :
Efficient use of land to avoid wasteful and unattractive suburban
sprawl;
Conscious efforts to direct growth where it can be accommodated
environmentally and would be advantageous socially and economi­
cally, and to discourage growth where such tests could not be met;
Improved delivery of public services;
Restoring central cities as major driving forces in our society;
Revitalizing rural communities;
Meeting national housing needs, especially the need for low- and
moderate-income housing;
Preserving maximum freedom of individual choice and diversity of
opportunity. Others could be added but I think these are the sig­
nificant elements that are emphasized.
None of these goals is beyond reach. But their attainment depends
upon a public will energized at the national level by strong leadership
in both the Congress and in the executive branch. In particular, two
basic policy issues will need to be faced—population increase, and
economic growth.
I think it is fair to say that in the view of the conservationists
and environmentalists, population stabilization is a pervasive and
basic requirement if man is to continue to live in reasonable balance
with his environment. A national policy of moving toward population
stabilization, as recommended in the recent report of the Commission
on Population Growth and the American Future, is clearly in the best
interests of our country. We hope that this landmark report and its
useful recommendations will be given the full hearing and thoughtful
consideration it merits.
I might add that the small section in the report entitled “ risks and
choices” is particularly well done, I think, and speaks eloquently and
sanely to available environmental alternatives.
With respect to economic growth, I would like to lay at rest the
stereotype of conservationists as no-growth advocates more concerned
with trees than with people. We are, indeed, concerned with trees,



88
and with land use, water quality, air pollution, and energy require­
ments as well. But not in some adversary fashion with respect to the
human condition. Some of my best friends are people. Rather, con­
servationists see environmental factors as important determinants of
the human condition, as well as the real absolutes, the final boundaries
to growth. We caution that there are finite limits to the amount and
kind of pollutants that air, water, and land can absorb and still remain
functional. We point to the fragile interdependencies of natural sys­
tems, and their limited capacity to recover when man’s actions unduly
imbalance these relationships.
But the basic concern is not that we’re about to run out of resource
commodities. With few exceptions, we are not even close. Intelligent
application of technology, further research, and actions to halt waste
and to husband our resources—as in the conservation of energy, for
example—can assure that the human species will be around for a
long time. As a species, we can probably survive a lot more crowding,
T
more congestion, and more pollution. But I would hope that simple
survival is not our major goal; that the quality and productivity of
our lives are the yardsticks of real importance. We need not settle for
an environment that is poor but not poisonous, or for cities that sur­
vive without serving. Yet such could be the result if we content our­
selves with the view that growth is good, so long as it is balanced
and orderly.
An environmental perspective may be particularly helpful in formu­
lating the land-use element of a national growth policy. We have
already achieved the understanding that strategically located urban
land is in limited supply—an understanding reached first by specu­
lators and developers, and much later by Government. There are indi­
cations, also, that we are ready to acknowledge land as a resource as
well as a commodity. We understand the need to hold certain lands
free from development—stream valleys, steep slopes, salt marshes and
other estuarine areas, and lands valuable for water recharge purposes.
Land-use legislation proposed by the administration would require
identifying areas of great environmental value or fragility, as well as
those in short supply. At the State level and at local levels there are
beginning moves in the direction of such recognitions. Vermont has
asserted authority over all mountain land development at elevations
above 2,500 feet. Delaware has closed its shoreline to further develop­
ment by the kinds of industries that are the worst polluters, and Ha­
waii has instituted statewide land zoning. I don’t suggest that all of
these measures are good or even appropriate. But I do suggest that
they are instances of awakened understanding of the need for hus­
banding what in earlier times was regarded as a limitless commod­
ity. At the regional scale, the San Francisco Bay Conservation and
Development Commission is a unique example of the progress to be
made when the people of a metropolitan area realize the need to con­
trol use of a priceless environmental asset. A number of other com­
munities have acted to limit growth or slow development out of a new
concern for environmental quality. Sewer moratoriums and refusals
to grant additional building permits in Virginia, Florida, California,
and elsewhere are evidence of a new concern about the desirability of
continued growth.




89
These kinds of efforts have been viewed—often with justification—
as protective and defensive actions to keep suburbs green and tidy,
unmarked and beyond reach of downtown problems. The environ­
mentalist has been tagged as an elitist, concerned more with protect­
ing the status quo, or natural resources, than with the human condi­
tion. I submit only that the responsible ecological view recognizes that
social well-being and sound environmental management cannot be
achieved independently of one another.
It is true, of course, that the whole thrust of environmental protec­
tion depends upon limiting, directing, and better managing the use of
natural resources. This is not a negative concern, but rather a realistic
and constructive course of action. Properly employed, conservation
principles can be a most positive and useful construct in a national
growth strategy. One of the principal problems in developing such a
strategy has always been the difficulty of establishing limits that
would help answer such questions as how much growth, how fast, and
where. Why, for example, should we not permit the Washington and
Baltimore metropolitan areas to grow together? Loss of a sense of
community is often mentioned, and a reduction of amenities. Prob­
ably so, but hard to document, and harder still to quantify. The effi­
ciency argument—namely, that leapfrogging subdivisions and ex­
tended commuting ranges increase public and social costs—is easier to
demonstrate. Even then, it is difficult to develop the kind of evidence
needed to draw firm boundaries. Awareness of environmental limits
may help.
If growth is shaped by the environment, rather than the other way
around, a major step is made toward supplying the sense of dimension
so vital to a viable national growth policy. If one adds an appreci­
ation of the human equities involved, and a concern for efficiency
of public investment, the framework of a viable, positive national
growth policy begins to emerge.
The Conservation Foundation, some years ago, undertook with sup­
port from the Ford Foundation a series of demonstrations to show
how environmental planning could help resolve land use conflicts.
As you know, these sometimes become bloody collisions where de­
velopment of land for urban purposes and the environmental quality
of the resource itself come into sharp confrontation.
For example, at Rookery Bay, on Florida’s west coast, the National
Audubon Society owns and administers a valuable 4,000-acre sanctu­
ary. The marine waters of the area are rich in plant and animal life,
and provide a key nursery and feeding, ground for sport and com­
mercial fishes. The sanctuary’s upland ponds provide the only sig­
nificant waterfowl habitat in the area. And the area provides sig­
nificant outdoor recreation opportunities.
Surrounding the sanctuary are privately owned lands held for resi­
dential and urban development. Can such development go forward
in a way that will realize reasonable profits to the landowners, yet
not permit uncontrolled drainage and pollution to flow into the sanctu­
ary and destroy it ?
We don’t have all the answers, but there seems room for guarded
optimism. There are trade-offs that need to be reached. Develop­
ment and construction work will need to be modified in certain ways—



90
to prevent dredging and filling of the bay itself, for example—and
compromises reached on density of development. But benefits from
these steps will flow both ways. For not only will the sanctuary be
safeguarded, but the value of surrounding lands will be enhanced.
Lack of adequate data can be a major stumbling block. We needed
information on water temperature, salinity, turbidity, changes in
plant and animal life, and many other kinds of data to tell us what
sorts of physical and biological changes were brought about by en­
vironmental manipulation. We found that with a baseline of data
at the outset, we were better equipped to understand the reasons for
environmental change and perhaps to prevent repetition if such change
was harmful.
At Bolinas Lagoon, in Marin County, Calif., and along the Georgia
coast, we have undertaken similar studies. I am leaving copies of them
here for the information of the committee.
I simply suggest that this approach to determining environmental
limits, and then developing patterns of growth and settlement that
can fit within such limits is a useful concept.
Nor is the utility of the environmental view limited to the suburbs
and beyond. In the central cities, it underscores the need for mass
transit to relieve congestion and air pollution, for open space to venti­
late dreary neighborhoods, for major expenditures for solid waste
disposal facilities. We find that what is efficient is also quite often en­
vironmentally sound. For example would it be less costly as well as
environmentally beneficial to spend scarce capital dollars on sewer
and water systems for increases in capacity and treatment quality,
rather than for line extensions that burden already overtaxed plants ?
In the Washington area, the per capita outlay for sewers in fast-grow­
ing suburban counties is nearly twice what it is in the District. One
can speculate what benefits might have accrued to the polluted Poto­
mac, to downtown waterfront amenities, to the pattern of suburban
land use, and to tax rates, if growth had been guided by environmental
considerations.
Pending legislative proposals to establish a national land-use policy
are helpful in recognizing the need for action. Their impact would
be*largely administrative and procedural, however; they offer little
explicit guidance, or substantive policy benchmarks. And their ap­
parent assumption that 50 State plans somehow will produce a con­
sistent, unified national land-use policy is hardly borne out by our ex­
perience with State water pollution control programs.
Perhaps the most difficult hurdle to the development of a national
growth policy is not so much that it would limit and constrain—by
now we are accustomed to regulation of one kind or another in all
facets of our lives. Rather, it is that there are few immutable laws or
simple arbitrary requirements with respect to growth to help establish
a policy framework. I have suggested that environmental considera­
tions can help supply one such limit. But by and large, notions of life
style, optimum economic activity, and population levels are matters of
belief, not subject to rigorous tests of fact or logic. If we are not simply
to make decisions about growth by fiat—a prospect to be rejected out
of hand—some way needs to be found that guarantees maximum choice
by individuals, and by local and State governments, and at the same



91
time safeguards those broader concerns that affect the Nation as a
whole.
I have said before there is no substitute for national leadership
in this difficult, complex search for focus and consensus. In this re­
spect, one must view this first Report on National Growth as an op­
portunity lost. However, there are other means of engaging the na­
tional concern on this issue that perhaps we should explore in addi­
tion to the requirement for the biennial report.
A modest and potentially useful first step would be to request Fed­
eral agencies to present alternative levels of appropriations needs
based on different assumptions of economic activity, urban growth pat­
terns, and population increase. At the outset such information might
be incomplete, uneven in coverage, and largely conjectural. As delib­
erate efforts were made to meet the requirement for alternative esti­
mates, however, the quality and reliability of the data could be
expected to improve. Two purposes, at least, would be served: The
Congress would have a better basis for deciding annual appropria­
tion requests, and the available information about growth costs and
options would be enormously expanded and improved.
Other steps are not so easily taken, but their inherent value seems
to us to justify putting them forward:
First, the executive branch of the Federal Government needs within
it a focal point for its role in developing a national growth policy.
We now have such a focal point for environmental quality considera­
tions in the Council on Environmental Quality, established by the
National Environmental Policy Act of 1969. We have a focal point
for economic policy, the Council of Economic Advisers—established
by Congress in the Full Employment Act of 1946.
We suggest that a similar focal point for national growth should
now be established in the executive branch. It should be small in num­
bers, and be located in the Executive Office of the President. It should
not be simply another interagency committee, nor an interdepart­
mental council; its principals should have no other major responsibili­
ties, and their appointments should be subject to congressional
confirmation.
The disappointing 1972 Report on National Growth shows why we
would be prudent not to rely on an anonymous committee of the inter­
departmental domestic council to do what now needs to be done. An
interagency committee is suitable for some assignments, but it cannot
move this Nation to new ground in policy development. (At least, one
never has.) We suggest that the biennial urban growth policy report­
ing assignment be given to the new focal-point policy unit we pro­
pose—perhaps called the National Growth Policy Board.
It has been 30 years since the pioneering National Resources Plan­
ning Board was terminated; time, certainly, for the United States
to take a major new initiative in this field.
Second, because the Congress is handicapped by the same fractiona­
tion that so cripples executive branch interagency committees, we sug­
gest that it also create a focal point for carrying out congressional
responsibilities in developing a national growth policy, and for con­
tinuing congressional oversight in its implementation.
These hearings this week by this committee, on the first national
growth policy report, are a beginning. We suggest that similar hear­




92
ings be held annually—perhaps focused on the growth policy report
in even-numbered years.
Because the subject matter involves jurisdiction of other congres­
sional committees, we suggest two further steps: that you consider
augmenting this committee, for the purpose of annual national growth
policy hearings, by inviting representatives of such other committees
as Agriculture, Interior, and Government Operations to join with you,
and that you then consider establishing, with the Senate, a Joint Com­
mittee on National Growth Policy.
Finally, we suggest that Congress give consideration to establishing
a Commission on National Growth Policy. I have been a staff member
on one commission and I put this suggestion forward with some trepi­
dation. It is certainly not a novel idea. I think, however, that it is time
that the people of the United States need to engage in a national dia­
logue about alternative growth choices if significant, productive
changes from the status quo are to be achieved. It is our history and
tradition that major changes are not made until a consensus has been
reached that such change is desirable. A Commission on National
Growth Policy could help stimulate national discussion, illuminate
alternatives, and help a consensus to mature.
The initial purpose of these three units which we propose—these
focal points for national growth policy, in the executive branch, in the
Congress, and for our national community as a whole—is in essence to
T
begin to ask the right questions, and to get these questions before the
American people.
Let us be candid. Despite our disappointments with the first na­
tional growth report, let us admit that this is a most difficult subject.
The kinds of questions raised when we talk about “ national growth
policy” are basic and complex. They hit directly at a range of goals
and values on which well-intentioned people can differ.
Answers—particularly politically acceptable answers—to all these
questions will be some time in coming.
But there is much that we can do meanwhile. First, we can start
collecting the great deal of additional information that is needed. Sec­
ond, we can keep things from getting worse, and keep our options
open, by deciding legislative proposals, tax policies, administrative
procedures, and budget requests with a conscious concern for their im­
pact on national growth. Throughout, we need to keep asking ourselves
the tough, basic, controversial questions that are the right questions.
For in the matter of national growth policy it is important to under­
stand that not to decide is to decide.
Thank you, Mr. Chairman.
(Mr. Davis’ prepared statement follows:)
P repared

Statem ent
the

of

A rthur

A . D a v i s , V ic e P r e s id e n t for O p e r a t io n s of

C o n s e r v a t i o n F o u n d a t i o n , W a s h i n g t o n , D .C .

My name is Arthur A. Davis. I am Vice President for Operations of the Con­
servation Foundation, a private, non-profit research, education, and information
organization in Washington, D.C. dedicated to analyzing public issues from eco­
logical and environmental perspectives.
W e appear here today because we believe that few issues are more basic to our
national future than the development of a national growth policy, and that none
is in greater need of full understanding by the American people.
There is need, first, for facts, for analysis, and for a clear understanding of
the respective costs and benefits of the growth choices that remain open to us.




93
Second, we need full ventilation of all points of view. Finally, and most pressing
of all, is the need for vigorous, imaginative, effective public leadership in open­
ing up visions of how this country may look and function— and feel— in the years
around the corner.
In our view, the “Report on National Growth 1972” does not address these
issues adequately. Thus, Congressional review is particularly important. No doubt
preparation of this first biennial growth report was a difficult and pioneering
task. But we are disappointed that it fails almost entirely to confront the issues.
Moreover, it represents a step backward in at least two respects.
First, the report assumes, without examination, that growth will continue to
be a primary objective of national policy; its concern is only that such growth
be balanced and orderly. Even these requirements are only vaguely defined. Bal­
anced growth is defined in the report merely as “growth which is distributed
among both rural and urban areas” and orderly growth is covered by a circular
declaration that “ orderly growth requires overcoming the problems associated
with past growth and preventing their repetition in the future.”
The report ignores completely the contemporary debate about relationships
between population, gross national product, environmental quality, and quality
of life. Consequently, it evades the basic issue of whether both our population
and economy should be encouraged to continue to grow. Its chief article of faith
seems to be merely that “more is better.”
Second, the report sees no prospect for developing a general national growth
strategy in less than a generation. And it cautions that, even then, the oppor­
tunities for positive policies must be limited if diversity, flexibility, and freedom
of personal choice are to be protected. W e are in full agreement, of course, with
the need for protecting individual rights and the democratic process; but con­
tinued mindless growth will, in fact, narrow our choices, reduce diversity, and
limit personal freedoms. Remember, too, that policy is what’s happening now.
And in that sense, we have a national growth policy, if largely by default. This
“policy” is the cumulative effect of existing programs and regulations that,
taken together, exert a most profound influence on our growth. For example,
consider the growth policy that is formed by the following: tax incentives or
disincentives (capital gains, amortization schedules) ; housing policies and pro­
grams (F H A regulations, new community support, urban renewal, grants for
open space and water and sewer facilities) ; national transportation programs—
(Federal aid to highways, assistance to airports, and grants and loans for mass
transit) ; energy consumption policies— (oil import quotas, power plant siting,
utility licensing, depletion allowances) ; Federal contract conditions and pro­
cedures ; and the two hundred-odd Federal grant and loan programs.
The question, then, is not whether we should have a growth policy. W e have
one, fragmented, disparate, conflicting, and inadequate as it is. The real ques­
tions are whether this aggregate constitutes the policy we w ant; and if not,
what do we w a n t; and then how do we shape a coherent, explicit, deliberate
strategy for directing the velocity and location of grow th: how much, what kind,
where, and for whose benefit?
It is probably fair to say that there is substantial agreement on the major goals
and objectives of a national growth policy. For example, nearly all experts speak
to the need f o r : efficient use of land to avoid wasteful and unattractive subur­
ban spraw l; conscious efforts to direct growth where it can be accommodated en­
vironmentally and would be advantageous socially and economically; and to
discourage growth where such tests could not be m et; improved delivery of
public services; restoring central cities as major driving forces in our society;
revitalizing rural communities; meeting national housing needs, especially the
need for low- and moderate-income housing; preserving maximum freedom of
individual choice and diversity o f opportunity.
None of these goals is beyond reach. But their attainment depends upon a
public will energized at the national level by strong leadership in both the
Congress and in the Executive Branch. In particular, two basic policy issues will
need to be faced— population increase, and economic growth.
I think it is fair to say that in the view of conservationists and environmen­
talists, population stabilization is a pervasive and basic requirement if man is
to continue to live in reasonable balance with his environment. A national policy
of moving toward population stabilization, as recommended in the recent report
of the Commission on Population Growth and the American Future, is clearly
in the best interests of our country. W e hope that this landmark report and its
useful recommendations will be given the full hearing and thoughtful consider­
ation it merits.

81-745
 O - 72 - pt. 1 - - 7


94
With respect to economic growth, I would like to lay at rest the stereotype of
conservationists as no-growth advocates more concerned with trees than with
people. W e are, indeed, concerned with trees, and with land use, water quality, air
pollution, and energy requirements as well. But not in some adversary fashion
with respect to the human condition. Some of my best friends are people. Rather,
conservationists see environmental factors as important determinants of the hu­
man condition, as well as the real absolutes, the final boundaries to growth. They
caution that there are finite limits to the amount and kind of pollutants that air,
water, and land can absorb and still remain functional. They point to the fragile
interdependencies of natural systems, and their limited capacity to recover when
man’s actions unduly imbalance these relationships. Above all, they remind us
that exponential growth by any species, including man, cannot be supported in­
definitely by the natural systems and resources available on the one and only
world we have.
But the basic concern is not that we’re about to run out of resource commod­
ities. W ith few exceptions, we’re not even close. Intelligent application of tech­
nology, further research, and actions to halt waste and to husband our re­
sources— as in the conservation of energy, for example— can assure that the
human species will be around for a long time. As a species, we can probably sur­
vive a lot more crowding, more congestion, and more pollution. But I would hope
that simple survival is not our major g oa l; that the quality and productivity of
our lives are the yardsticks of real importance. W e need not settle for an en­
vironment that is poor but not poisonous, or for cities that survive without serv­
ing. Yet such could be the result if we content ourselves with the view that
growth is good, so long as it is balanced and orderly.
An environmental perspective may be particularly helpful in formulating the
land-use element of a national growth policy. W e have already achieved the un­
derstanding that strategically located urban land is in limited supply— an under­
standing reached first by speculators and developers, and much later by gov­
ernment. There are indications, also, that we are ready to acknowledge land as a
resource as well as a commodity. For example, there is general agreement that it
is in the public interest to hold certain lands free from development— stream
valleys, steep slopes, salt marshes and other estuarine areas, and lands valuable
for water recharge purposes. Land-use legislation proposed by the Administration
would require identifying areas of great environmental value or fragility, as
well as those in short supply. At the State level, Vermont has asserted authority
over all mountain land development at elevation above 2,500 feet. Delaware has
closed its shoreline to further development by the kinds of industries that are
the worst polluters, and Hawaii has instituted a statewide land zoning. These
measures may not all be successful or even desirable; I cite them only as in­
stances of an awakened understanding to the need for husbanding what in earlier
times was regarded as a limitless commodity. At the regional scale, the San
Francisco Bay Conservation and Development Commission is a unique example
of the progress to be made when the people of a metropolitan area realize the
need to control use of a priceless environmental asset. A number of other com­
munities have acted to limit growth or slow development out of a new concern
for environmental quality. Sewer moratoriums and refusals to grant additional
building permits in Virginia, Florida, California, and elsewhere are evidence
of a new concern about the desirability of continued growth.
These kinds of efforts have been viewed— often with justification— as protec­
tive and defensive actions to keep suburbs green and tidy, unmarked and be­
yond reach of downtown problems. The environmentalist has been tagged as an
elitist, concerned more with protecting the status quo, or natural resources, than
with the human condition. I can only say that the responsible ecological view
recognizes that social well-being and sound environmental management cannot
be achieved independently of one another.
It is true, of course, that the whole thrust of evironmental protection depends
upon limiting, directing, and better managing the use of natural resources. This
is not a negative concern, but rather a realistic and constructive course of action.
Properly employed, conservation principles can be a most positive and useful con­
struct in a national growth strategy. One of the principal problems in developing
such strategy has always been the difficulty of establishing limits that would
help answer such questions as how much growth, how fast, and where. Why, for
example, should we be concerned that the Washington and Baltimore metro­
politan areas are growing together? Loss of a sense of community is often men­
tioned, and a reduction of amenities. Probably so, but hard to document, and




95
harder still to quantify. The efficiency argument— namely, that leapfrogging sub­
divisions and extended commuting ranges increase public and social costs is
easier to demonstrate. Even then, it is difficult to develop the kind of evidence
needed to draw firm boundaries. Awareness of environmental limits may help.
To give one example, the Population Commission’s report suggests that the
boundaries of growth already have been reached in at least one region of the
United States— the Los Angeles Basin— because of air pollution alone. The re­
port notes that the Environmental Protection Agency’s acceptable maximum
standard for concentrations of nitrogen oxides is 100 micrograms per cubic
meter. “ In Los Angeles,” the report says, “we estimate that even with an active
abatement policy, concentrations of nitrogen oxides (in the year 2000) will still
be at least 50 per cent above standard, and probably well above that,” because
of the anticipated continuing increase of both people and automobiles there.
Even though control of emissions from individual cars is assumed to be the
limits of technology, the number of automobiles is expected to continue to rise
steadily. “ C learly/’ the report says, “in this region of the country something
must give: the rate of population growth, the use of the internal combustion
engine— especially for personal transport— or the (air quality) standard itself.”
Yet, the aggregate of federal programs which constitute national “policy” con­
tinues to encourage the growth of both people and automobiles in the Los An­
geles Basin.
I f growth is shaped by the environment, rather than the other way around,
a major step is made toward supplying the sense of dimension so vital to a
viable national growth policy. I f one adds an appreciation of the human equi­
ties involved, and a concern for efficiency of public investment, the framework
of a viable, positive national growth policy begins to emerge.
You may be interested in a series of environmental demonstration projects
the Conservation Foundation has nearly completed. Assisted by a grant from
the Ford Foundation, these demonstrations tried to show how environmental
planning can help resolve development vs. preservation land use conflicts.
For example, at Rookery Bay, on Florida’s west coast, the National Audubon
Society owns and administers a valuable 4,000-acre sanctuary. The marine wa­
ters of the area are rich in plant and animal life, and provide a key nursery and
feeding ground for sport and commercial fishes. The sanctuary’s upland ponds
provide the only significant waterfowl habitat in the area. And the area pro­
vides significant outdoor recreation opportunities.
Surrounding the sanctuary are privately-owned lands held for residential
and urban development. Can such development go forward in a way that will
realize reasonable profits to the landowners, yet not permit uncontrolled drain­
age and pollution to flow into the sanctuary and destroy it?
W e don’t yet have all the answers, but there seems room for guarded optimism.
Water management will have to be carefully regulated. Development and con­
struction work will need to be modified in certain ways— to prevent dredging
and filling of the Bay itself, for example— and compromises reached on density
of development. But benefits from these steps will flow both ways. For not only
will the sanctuary be safeguarded, but the value of surrounding lands will be
enhanced.
Lack of adequate data can be a major stumbling block. Too often, we just
don’t know what the full consequences of environmental manipulation will be.
Baseline studies of ecosystems before development are vital to an understanding
of what happens because of development. At Rookery Bay, we are helping to
gather basic data of many kinds— water temperature, salinity, turbidity, changes
in plant and animal life, and other kinds of physical and biological information.
This monitoring is continuing so that we will know what happens when develop­
ment goes forward, and be in position to prevent repetition of harmful practices.
It's an operating formula that can be applied in many situations.
A t Bolinas Lagoon, in Marin County, California and along the Georgia Coast,
we have undertaken similar studies. Each involves a different kind of problem
with different resource components. In all cases, however, the basic approach is
to determine the environmental limits, and to suggest patterns of both develop­
ment and protection that can be fitted with such limits.
Nor is the utility of the environmental view limited to the suburbs and beyond.
In the central cities, it underscores the need for mass transit to relieve conges­
tion and air pollution, for open space to ventilate dreary neighborhoods, for
major expenditures for solid waste disposal facilities. And the concern for the
interdependency of systems which is the touchstone of ecology suggests, also,




96
that we look carefully at patterns of public facility expenditures in metropolitan
areas. Would it be less costly as well as environmentally beneficial to spend capi­
tal dollars on sewer and water systems for increases in capacity and treatment
quality, rather than for line extensions that burden already overtaxed plants?
In the Washington area, the per capita outlay for sewers in fast-growing
suburban counties is nearly twice what it is in the District. One can speculate
what benefits might have accrued to the polluted Potomac, to downtown water­
front amenities, to the pattern of suburban land use, and to tax rates, if growth
had been guided by environmental considerations.
Pending legislative proposals to establish a national land-use policy are help­
ful in recognizing the need for action. Their impact would be largely adminis­
trative and procedural, however; they offer little explicit guidance, or substan­
tive policy benchmarks. And their apparent assumption that fifty state plans
somehow will produce a consistent, unified national land-use policy is hardly
borne out by our experience with state water pollution control programs.
Perhaps the most difficult hurdle to the development of a national growth
policy is not so much that it would limit and constrain— by now we are accus­
tomed to regulation of one kind or another in all facets of our lives. Rather, it is
that there are few immutable laws or simple arbitrary requirements with respect
to growth to help establish a policy framework. I have suggested that environ­
mental considerations can help supply one such limit. But by and large, notions
of life style, optimum economic activity, and population levels are matters of
belief, not subject to rigorous tests of fact or logic. I f we are not to simply make
decisions about growth by fiat— a prospect to be rejected out of hand— some way
needs to be found that guarantees maximum choice by individuals, and by local
and State governments, and at the same time safeguards those broader concerns
that affect the nation as a whole.
There is no substitute for national leadership in this difficult, complex search
for focus and consensus. In this respect, one must view this first Report on
National Growth as an opportunity lost. There are other means of engaging the
national concern on this issue, however, and I should like to suggest several
for your consideration:
A modest and potentially useful first step would be to request Federal agencies
to present alternative levels of appropriations needs based on different assump­
tions of economic activity, urban growth patterns, and population increase. At
the outset such information might be incomplete, uneven in coverage, and
largely conjectural. As deliberate efforts were made to meet the requirement for
alternative estimates, however, the quality and reliability of the data could be
expected to improve. Two purposes, at least, would be served: the Congress
would have a better basis for deciding annual appropriation requests, and the
available information about growth costs and options would be enormously ex­
panded and improved.
Other steps are not so easily taken, but their inherent value seems to us to
justify putting them forward :
First, the Executive Branch of the Federal government needs within it a
focal point for its role in developing a national growth policy. W e now have such
a focal point for environmental quality considerations in the Council on En­
vironmental Quality, established by the National Environmental Policy Act of
1969. W e have a focal point for economic policy, the Council of Economic Ad­
visors— established by Congress in the Full Employment Act of 1946.
W e suggest that a similar focal point for national growth should now be
established in the Executive Branch. It should be small in numbers, and be
located in the Executive Office of the President. It should not be simply another
interagency committee, nor an interdepartmental council; its principals should
have no other major responsibilities, and their appointments should be subject
to Congressional confirmation.
The disappointing 1972 Report on National Growth shows why we would
be prudent not to rely on an anonymous committee of the interdepartmental
Domestic Council to do what now needs to be done. An inter-agency committee
is suitable for some assignments, but it cannot move this nation to new ground
in policy development. (A t least, one never has.) W e suggest that the biennial
urban growth policy reporting assignment be given to the new focal-point policy
unit we propose— perhaps called the National Growth Policy Board. The Board,
also, should have staff competence to undertake objective, comprehensive re­
search and analysis of growth issues, to publicize its findings, and otherwise to
act as an expert source of advice and information on growth policy. It could




97
also sponsor a continuing series of public hearings, conferences and seminars
at the State level, in major metropolitan areas, and in colleges and universities.
Through this process the people of this country could be personally and effec­
tively involved in basic issues and decisions of immediate concern to them.
It has been thirty years since the pioneering National Resources Planning
Board was terminated; time, certainly, for the United States to take a major
new initiative in this field.
Second, because the Congress is handicapped by the same fractionation that so
cripples Executive Branch inter-agency committee, we suggest that it also create
a focal point for carrying out Congressional responsibilities in developing a na­
tional growth policy, and for continuing Congressional oversight in its implemen­
tation.
These hearings this week by this Committee, on the first National Growth
Policy Report are a beginning. W e suggest that similar hearings be held an­
nually— perhaps focused on the Growth Policy Report in even-numbered years.
Because the subject matter involves jurisdiction of other Congressional com­
mittees, we suggest two further steps: that you consider augmenting this Com­
mittee, for the purpose of annual national growth policy hearings, by inviting
representatives of such other committees as Agriculture, Interior and Govern­
ment Operations to join with you, and that you then consider establishing, with
the Senate, a Joint Committee on National Growth Policy.
Finally, we suggest that Congress give consideration to establishing a Com­
mission on National Growth Policy.
The notion of setting up an advisory commission is hardly new, nor is there
any certainty of success in a subject area as complex as this one. However, the
people of the United States need to engage in a national dialogue about alterna­
tive growth choices if significant, productive changes from the status quo are to
be achieved. It is our history and tradition that major changes are not made un­
til a consensus has been reached that such change is desirable. A Commission
on National Growth Policy could help stimulate national discussion, illuminate
alternatives, and help a consensus to mature. Such a Commission should include
citizen leaders appointed by the President, appointed by him upon recommenda­
tion of Congressional leaders, and several Members of Congress, as well. It
should report to the President and the Congress within two years. Its principal
responsibilities should be to make recommendations on the elements of a na­
tional growth policy for the United States, the strategies that might be employed
to achieve those goals, and a program for doing it.
The initial purpose of these three units which we propose— these focal points
for a national growth policy, in the Executive Branch, in the Congress, and for
our national community as a whole— is in essence to begin to ask the right ques­
T
tions, and to get these questions before the American people.
Let us be candid. Despite our disappointments with the first National Growth
Report, let us admit that this is a most difficult subject. The kinds of questions
raised when we talk about “national growth policy” are basic and complex.
They hit directly at a range of goals and values on which well-intentioned people
can differ.
Answers— particularly politically acceptable answers— to all these questions
will be some time in coming.
But there is much that we can do meanwhile. First, we can start collecting the
great deal of additional information that is needed. Second, we can keep things
from getting worse, and keep our options open, by deciding legislative proposals,
tax policies, administrative procedures, and budget requests with a conscious
concern for their impact on national growth. Throughout, we need to keep asking
ourselves the tough, basic, controversial questions that are the right questions.
For in the matter of national growth policy it is important to understand that not
to decide is to decide.

Mr. A s h l e y . Thank you very much, Mr. Davis, for a remarkably
cogent statement. It would be difficult to find a better leadoff witness.
You have not sought to indict the Report on National Growth 1972,
but simply to express those disappointments which are bound to occur
when a report of that kind is issued. It clearly falls short of the mark
and the expectations of the Congress, and of groups such as yours that
really focus 011 the importance of a national growth strategy, as dis­



98
tinct from the disparate ad hoc development processes that have char­
acterized American growth in the past.
Your specific suggestions are most valuable to us. I quite agree that
there must be a focal point for national growth and that it has got
to be in the executive branch and at the highest level that we have in
this country for political decisionmaking, which is very much in­
volved here. It is interesting that in 1970 we had in mind this kind of
congressionally established council or board, patterned very much
after the Council on Environmental Quality.
Mr. D a v is. Right.
Mr. A s h l e y . There would have been an executive-congressional
partnership in the sense that there would have been confirmation of
the appointees by the Senate. But it would not have been the kind of
in-house operation that it was necessary for us to settle upon, as a
condition of having the administration agree at all.
What you are saying is that a council that is simply “ an identifiable
unit of the Domestic Council” falls short of fulfilling the kinds of
focus that is necessary; is that correct ?
Mr. D a v is. Yes, it is, Mr. Chairman. I have worked with a number
of interagency councils, and found that while well intentioned people
may try hard, you need to have a single point of responsibility to as­
sure that a task such as this one is completed; one manager, if you will,
who is concerned solely with this, who is not swayed by departmental
concerns, and who is not obliged to serve a single constituency. It is
for these reasons that I put forward the suggestion of a new unit in
the Executive Office of the President. I do so with some reluctance,
since that office is already very large. But we are talking here about
our national future, and when one examines the performance of the
executive branch in putting together any sort of coherent national
policy, and sees how short that effort falls, reluctance to suggest an­
other executive unit is more than overcome by the obvious require­
ment for a single focal point.
I might say that my prepared statement touches upon pending
Federal legislation that would authorize preparation of 50 State land
use plans. These may prove useful. I think the experience with the
water quality control program in this country, however, is all the
evidence we need that the aggregation of 50 State policies or plans
does not equal the national interest.
Mr. A s h l e y . Precisely. I couldn’t agree more. I am glad you made
that point.
I am also sympathetic to your proposals that hearings such as this
be expanded to include representatives of other committees and that,
not too far in the future, consideration be given to a Joint Committee
on Growth Policy. There certainly is no feeling on our part that the
Housing Subcommittee or even the full Banking Committee has any­
thing approaching total jurisdiction with respect to all of the com­
ponents that would comprise a national growth policy. The contrary
is, of course, true; the crucial power over tax policy obviously falls
within the purview of the Ways and Means Committee; and the Com­
mittees on Public Works, Interior, Agriculture, and other committees
have legitimate and proper roles to play and contributions to make.
You also propose the establishment of an advisory committee.
Mr. D a v is. Yes, sir.



99
Mr. A s h l e y . That would be advisory to the President’s council.
That, too, was proposed in the original 1970 legislation but was un­
fortunately opposed by the administration with considerable vehe­
mence. I think that events since 1969-70 have justified our original
premise, which you have articulated with considerable persuasion, that
T
more and more, there simply must be a forum for the contributions of
the academic community, of the professional community, and of citi­
zen groups. This would really serve two functions, one of which is to
provide a forum for the kinds of advice that should be enormously
helpful in any kind of formulation of goals and policy at the Federal
level, and, second, of course, the educational function of making it
clear to people that what we are concerned with is of enormous im­
portance to them. We should again look at that proposal and review^
our past decision. I can assure you that we will do so.
I have one or two other matters to discuss with you, but first let me
call on Mr. Brown.
Mr. B r o w n . Thank you, Mr. Chairman.
Mr. Davis, in your statement, on page 4, toward the bottom, you say,
and I am quoting:
I think it is fair to say that in the view of conservationists and environ­
mentalists, population stabilization is a pervasive and basic requirement if man
is to continue to live in reasonable balance with his environment. A national
policy of moving toward population stabilization, as recommended in the recent
report of the Commission on Population Growth and the American Future, is
clearly in the best interests of our country. W e hope that this landmark report
and its useful recommendations will be given the full hearing and thoughtful
consideration it merits.

In view of that statement I would ask at what point and upon what
criteria is population stabilization based ? Are we talking about people
per acre ? What are we talking about there ?
Mr. D a v is. First, I must confess I am no expert on population prob­
lems. Yet this is perhaps the key question. It seems to me that moving
toward a steady and stable population, which, I understand from a re­
cent news report in the New York Times, we are now doing, is the direc­
tion in which we should go. A national effort to stabilize population
at about this level makes sense both environmentally and economically
and seems very much in the national interest.
Mr. B r o w n . Isn’t that the very thing you were criticizing in the re­
port that has been made by the administration; that is, we are looking
at what we have and deciding how to control growth rather than estab­
lishing growth criteria ?
Looking at the report, we see there has been a tremendous variation
in population growth rates over the years. What if we had decided in
1850 that we should stabilize population? Was that the proper time
to do it ? With population increasing, our land mass remains the same,
should we stabilize population at the present rate, or are we still prema­
ture and should we not wait and stabilize it at a rate that may exist in
the year 2000 ?
What I am saying is how do we know we should be stabilizing it
now ? Is there a reason which has not been directly apparent ? Has it
been theoretically determined that now is the right time to stabilize
and, if stabilized, that it would be at the right rate ?
Mr. D a v is. I think we do know, however, that there are many
areas of public need in this country where we badly need to play catch­



100

up football—in education, in the quality of public services, in health.
We would be ahead, I think, to hold our population level steady and
work to meet these needs until we have answers to the questions you
raise. We would be both prudent and responsible and give ourselves the
leadtime that we may need. Therefore it seems to me most sensible
to observe environmental limits until we are certain that they can
be safely stretched.
We can look ahead. This is not 1850. I will grant you that in 1850
I probably would have not made the kind of statement I made this
morning. But we know a good deal more now. We are a different so­
ciety than we were in 1850. Reasonable men can take facts now avail­
able from such sources as the Population Commission and say, “All
things considered, it makes sense to cry hold at this time.”
Mr. B r o w n . I s this the first time in our history that we have ever
made any real effort or expressed any real concern about a national
growth policy ?
Mr. D a v is. No, I should doubt that. The National Resources Plan­
ning Board expressed similar concerns. And of course Malthus ex­
pressed concern for the future of mankind about 1800. I do think,
though, that our technology has so advanced, if not improved, that we
are now much more in position than ever before to upset the balances
of the one world we have. We know, for example, that the way in
which we are pouring automobiles into Los Angeles can make that
basin untenable as a healthy place to live in the foreseeable future.
With all emission controls imposed, and granting the limit of prog­
ress in the development of internal combustion engines, we will still
have an air quality situation in Los Angeles before the end of the
century that none of us will want to live with. We know that now. We
can see it coming.
I like to think that the difference between man and the other species
is that he buys life insurance, he plans, he worries about his future. I
think the way to worry about our future is not by scare talk, precipitous
actions, or “ Calamity Jane” statements, but by acting on the facts at
hand. I think that we are at a dogleg with respect to the physical de­
velopment and resource consumption of this country, and perhaps the
world, and need to act accordingly.
The Conference on the Quality of the Human Environment now
going on in Stockholm is considering these issues worldwide. I sug­
gest that it is timely, prudent, and appropriate to slow down until we
have answers for some pressing environmental questions.
Mr. B r o w n . Is finding a solution for this country the ultimate?
What is the impact of our coming up with a plan, a pattern, of na­
tional growth that is done in isolation as a nation vis-a-vis the rest of
the world ?
Mr. D a v is. Again, you have raised a major and critical question. Ob­
viously we must consider how’ American industry can continue to com­
pete if the costs of environmental protection are internalized. This
poses difficult economic issues in some eases. In many instances, though,
the cost of environmental protection and pollution abatement need not
be that great. There are other elements of cost that are far more sig­
nificant. But it is still a good question. Many of us are hopeful that
Stockholm and its aftermath will give us some clues here. But I would
be less than candid if I said I had great expectations. It is going to be
a long pull.



101

Mr. B r o w n . I don’t recall the testimony absolutely accurately, but
in our hearings before the Joint Committee on Defense Production, in
talking about energy, talking about productive capabilities and all
of these things, that some of those who testified before our committee
pointed out that there was clearly a substantial difference between the
requirements, ecological, environmental, and so forth, of other na­
tions and this Nation, and that the cost differential, therefore, was sub­
stantial not only in the environment and ecological areas but also in
the area of consumerism and everything else. We have an incre­
ment, a factor, of expense for this effort within our cost of production
that is very significant compared with other nations, and so what I
am saying is what is the relationship of a solution of our problem on
national growth when there is not a similar concern expressed world­
wide. Let me turn to another-----Mr. A s h l e y . Would the gentleman yield at this point ?
Mr. B r o w n . Yes, sir.
Mr. A s h l e y . I don’t think it would be quite fair to characterize other
countries as not being interested in this area.
Mr. B r o w n . I am not saying that.
Mr. A s h l e y . There is the Club of Rome. There is the fact that other
industrialized countries, the European countries in particular, are far
ahead of us in terms of formulating growth strategies.
Mr. D a v is. Yes, sir. There is also the fact that with 6 percent of
the world population we use 30 to 40 percent of the world’s energy.
Brazil has made plain that it wants to catch up to us a bit before
worrying about pollution. We may deplore that as their national
view on environmental protection but still what Brazil does or
doesn’t do hasn’t nearly the impact upon the world environment as
what we do.
Mr. B r o w n . On p age 13, in the m id d le of the page, you s a y :
A modest and potentially useful first step would be to request Federal agencies
to present alternative levels of appropriations needs based on different assump­
tions of economic activity, urban growth patterns, and population increase.

Would you develop that for me a little bit?
Mr. D a v is. It is a rather new idea which does need development,
I grant you.
It is our thought that if requests for appropriations were presented
on alternative assumptions of population and economic growth, the
Congress would have more choices, and a better understanding of the
consequences of its decisions than you now have. For example, some­
one says we want x dollars for the construction of a dam. The dam
would be largely to provide a municipal water supply. I f you had
alternative appropriation requests predicated on a need for munici­
pal water for a y, or z thousands of people, or understood the cost of
?,
other options, such as redirecting growth elsewhere, you could better
judge the need for the dam, or for a larger dam, a smaller one, or none
at all. You would have more choice than you now have. As it is, you
can only vote the dam up or down.
School requirements are another example. Should we spend more
school money in fast-growing suburbs, or try to reconstitute the vi­
tality of the central city ? Knowing funding requirements for alterna­
tive growth rates could help make better decisions. The dollar costs
might be greater or lesser for central city schools, I don’t know. If




102

they were greater you might decide to go ahead anyway, in vieA
\
of the social benefits produced. The point is that over some period of
time, we would begin to develop understandings about what growth
is really costing.
Mr. B r o w n . Are you saying then that you would use the alterna­
tive appropriations process; in other words the alternative level of
funding-----Mr. D a v is. Yes.
Mr. B r o w n (continuing). Would be utilized to limit the activity?
Do you mean to suggest that to avoid the problem of congestion of
automobiles in Los Angeles we should limit access to the highway trust
fund?
Mr. D a vis. It could work that way. It could work the other way also.
You might decide that a certain region was a logical growth point
in the country, and that it would be efficient, and environmentally
sound, to channel growth there. In that case you would vote for a high
option. Perhaps in the case of New York City or another very large
urban area, that seemed to be reaching the limits of growth, you
would keep things in a steady state. Appropriation requests that re­
lated dollars to growth rates would arm the Congress with additional
information upon which to make judgments.
Mr. B r o w n . With a limited amount of funding for housing, for
instance, if we build housing in lower cost areas, rather than in the
heart of New York City, we can build a lot more housing for low- and
inoderate-income people because we can get more units for the same
amount of money.
Under this theory of yours, this concept of yours, should we then
limit the amount of money that we will put into housing in New York
City because we can produce a greater number of housing units for
more low- and moderate-income people elsewhere ?
Mr. D avis. A good question, and one that can’t be answered simply
by a yes or no.
Mr. B r o w n . Let me just develop that a little further. The lowest
income people get the greatest amount of subsidization of housing and
so on. Once again, with one mass of dollars, a limited mass, if we sub­
sidize people who are only half needy, as compared to the most needy,
we can once again provide subsidies for a decent home in a suitable
environment for twice as many people. Now should we pursue that
latter approach and say to the very needy, sorry, we can’t help you,
because we really want to do the most, for the most people, and with
limited funding we can help more people by doing things for only
those who are not quite as bad off.
Mr. D avis. That is a key policy issue.
Mr. B ro w n . Isn’t it properly a consideration of any national growth
policy ?
Mr. D avis. Yes, this is a key policy issue. My suggestion is based on
the prospect that one is probably going to make better decisions on
these questions with better information. You may decide that it is
worth the extra cost to build residential housing in the center city;
that it is essential not to have a monoculture in the suburbs, and noth­
ing but offices in New York. But you would make the decision with
an understanding of what tho costs in growth and in environmental
terms really are.




103
Mr. B r o w n . One final question because o f its relevance to other legis­
lation we are considering here.
Mr. A s h l e y . I am g o in g to hold you to that.
Mr. B r o w n . On page 14 you talk about the executive branch, the
National Growth Policy Board, and I notice that you single out and
deal in particularity with the question of confirmation. Why?
Mr. D a v is. My purpose is to suggest that we should have major first
rank executive officials on the Board. The pattern for appointment of
officials of this caliber and this level is Senate confirmation. As I said
earlier, we are talking about national futures. I think it is fitting that
Congress share the responsibility for appointment of persons entrusted
with this particular responsibility.
Mr. B r o w n . May I only suggest that in the Senate recently we have
observed not only problems of partisanship on confirmation but now
you are going to also add to that already fertile area of controversy
the question of whether someone is a ruralist or an urbanist on this
board. Maybe the Senate would be able to withhold confirmation of
the board for twice as long as usual.
Mr. D a v is. I understand the difficulty, sir, but I am still a great be­
liever in our system, and though it sometimes operates creakily, I
think we should stick with it.
Mr. B r o w n . Thank you very much.
Mr. D a v is. Thank you, sir.
Mr. A s h l e y . Mr. S t Germain.
Mr. S t G e r m a in . In answering some of the questions for Mr. Brown,
you referred to a redirection of the growth pattern. Later on, you
gave the illustration of Los Angeles or San Francisco, the decision
being made that growth should continue there, with the alternative
being to keep things in a steady state in some of the other larger cities.
Actually, are you saying that we should be dealing with providing for
orderly growth of the proper areas, recognizing what the growth pat­
tern has been, or are you saying we should stem the growth, as well as
redirect it to the areas in which growth is occurring ?
Mr. D a v is. We are going to have growth. I am not suggesting that
anybody take a snapshot of this country and try to keep us the way
we look in the picture. Some growth is necessary. Some of it is good.
As I understand your question, I agree with the first part of it ; namely,
that we need to first determine what the limits of growth should be,
and then to direct it in an orderly way. But as I said in my text, policy
is what’s happening now. Failure to make conscious decisions doesn’t
mean that decisions aren’t made every day. I am merely suggesting—
and I realize we don’t have a great deal of tha data that it would be
desirable to have—that we need to continually examine our options,
and try to cost them out in social, economic, physical, and environ­
mental terms. So I agree with your suggestion that we direct growth
consciously, in accordance with our desires as to where and how much
and what kind we want.
Mr. S t G e r m a in . Another statement that you made was to the effect
that there has to be something done about growth, because of the crisis
in education and the consumption of energy.
As far as that type argument is concerned, I think you could take
the other side of it too. Our growth has been and is rapid, there is an
educational crisis and there is an energy crisis. There are two ways of



104
handling that. One, you could say we should control growth; and the
other is to examine the methods of keeping up with the growth and
providing the education and providing the energy.
What is your choice of the alternatives in those two areas ?
Mr. D a v is. We need to be concerned with the quality and the kind
of goods being produced, as well as with production itself. Certainly
we need more and better schools. But perhaps we don’t need to make as
many nonreturnable plastic bottles. We need to look at the quality of
what our productive processes are providing, as much as their total
quantity.
Mr. St G e r m a in . Thank you, Mr. Chairman.
Mr. A s h l e y . Y o u touched upon education, power, energy. Would
you agree that our haphazard growth has been caused not by our in­
ability to control it, but by our lack of commitment to shape it in a
way that takes full account of life support systems, housing, educa­
tion, transportation, law enforcement, health, and the overall quality
of public services? I gather that you share my view that the break­
downs in very important delivery systems can be traced to our ap­
proach to growth, to our unwillingness to try to shape it in a coherent
fashion.
M r . D a v is . N o question.
Mr. A s h l e y . On that note

of agreement, Mr. Davis, thank you very
much indeed for being with us.
Mr. D a v is. Thank you, Mr. Chairman, I enjoyed it.
Mr. A s h l e y . Our next witness is Mayor Norman Y. Mineta, mayor
of San Jose, Calif., representing the U.S. Conference of Mayors and
the National League of Cities. Mr. Mayor, your reputation arrived here
long in advance of your direct presence. We are very pleased indeed
to have you with us this morning.
STATEMENT OF HON. NORMAN Y. MINETA, MAYOR, CITY OF SAN
JOSE, CALIF., ON BEHALF OF THE U.S. CONFERENCE OF MAYORS
AND THE NATIONAL LEAGUE OF CITIES

Mayor M in e t a . Thank you very much, Mr. Chairman.
Mr. Chairman and members of the committee, I am Norman Y.
Mineta, mayor of one of the fastest growing cities in the LTnited
States, San Jose, Calif.
It is an extreme pleasure for me to be here representing the Na­
tional League of Cities and the U.S. Conference of Mayors to discuss
this vital issue—urban growth—and the need for a national urban
growth policy.
I want to express my appreciation to this committee, and par­
ticularly Congressman Ashley, for its leadership in the urban growth
area, and I pray that this series of hearings which the committee
is conducting will be looked back on as the point at which this coun­
try finally decided to seriously address the issue of developing a
logical national urban growth policy to replace the inadvertent cha­
otic and disfunctional national urban growth policy which we pres­
ently have.
I ’ll come back to this point in a minute. But just let me tell you a
little about San Jose. As you can see from the maps which I have




105
provided, San Jose is no stranger to growth. We have grown in square
miles from 5.47 in 1910; 27.62 in 1955; 63.87 in 1960; 106.03 in 1965;
to 142.70 in 1972. ( See pages 106,107.)
I want to point out that this growth, and the spreading city
boundary has been brought about for the most part through the an­
nexation of newly developed areas as they develop—and does not
represent the annexation of people who are already there.
Putting it another way, an average of 25,420 people have been added
to the city of San Jose each year during the 10-year period 1960-70.
In terms of dwelling units, we have averaged over 9,500 new dwelling
units per year over the same period.




106

6 3 .8 7 square

5 47

2 7 .6 2

square miles-

square




miles

1910

-1955

miles —

1960




107

INCORPORATED AREA
City of San Jose

142.70

square

Pr e p a r e d By :

miles

“ 1972

Planning Department
Sa n

J o s e , Ca l i f o r n i a

April

1972

108
The total population in our SMS A—which is Santa Clara Coun­
ty—has increased from 642,315 in 1960 to 1,064,714 in 1970.
As I am sure you can imagine, growth is a major political issue in
our area. Citizen groups have been created and coalitions of interests
have formed on both sides of the growth issue with some groups pro­
posing stopping all growth through moratoriums on building permits,
et cetera.
Yet the building industry payroll is the largest in our valley. And
as you know, you can’t stop the community’s major industry without
developing seme method of handling the economic consequences.
You would think then that the logical course for us to follow would
be for the city to develop some logical rationale by which we could
control or guide our growth.
We’ve tried. First, in terms of simplifying the jurisdictions which
deliver services in the area. In San Jose with the help of the State’s
annexation laws, and a creature of those laws called the Local Agency
Formation Commission, we have managed to resolve the question as
to what areas of the county will be served by which cities. The growth
history of the San Jose area like so many other areas in the country
has had its share of annexation feuds. But the potential of locking
in the original city of San Jose through the incorporation of new
cities on the periphery—which had landlocked cities like St. Louis
and so many other eastern cities—has, as in the case of San Jose, been
resolved by the Local Agency Formation Commission. This has been
done through the establishment of ultimate boundary lines—or sphereof-influence lines inside of which annexation by another city or the
creation of a new city will not be allowed. A map which shows this
is provided.
(The map referred to by Mayor Mineta may be found on p. 109.)




81-745
O - 7 - pt.
2




o

CO

INCORPORATED A R E A S

110

What that means is that, within San Jose’s 340 square miles of influ­
ence, services are provided by either the city or the county, or both.
In an effort to get a handle on the growth within our sphere of
influence, San Jose in 1970 adopted its first set of urban development
policies to help insure that future growth would occur in an ordered,
planned manner to achieve balanced development. We felt the for­
mulation of these policies was necessary to clarify responsibilities for
development between the city and county and to assure that all new
growth would be adequately served. I am including a copy of this
policy document in my testimony, as it does represent a significant
policy attempt at providing a basis for staging growth. (See page 117.)
Yet, despite our many efforts to manage our growth, I suggest that
our efforts at growth management are quite incomplete, and that, given
the devices available to us, San Jose cannot manage its growth because
the real decisions that affect San Jose and all other American cities
are made elsewhere—mostly in Washington. What is more, I will
argue that these key decisions are not the obvious ones, but are in areas
like income-tax policy, about which the cities have had remarkable
little to say.
San Jose is fortunate enough to be participating in a Rand Corpo­
ration project which is funded by the National Science Foundation,
whose basic approach is to examine a series of central policy problems
in a series of American cities. Rand’s effort has two objectives: first, to
assist local decisionmakers such as the mayor and city council in the
design and understanding of the policy options open to them; and sec­
ond, to provide an analytical basis—now notably missing—for the
design of a new “ national urban policy.”
A preliminary report on “ Alternative Growth Strategies for San
Jose,” prepared by the Rand Corp. for the National Science Founda­
tion, as well as the first-year plan report for the Rand project is
appended for your information. (See page 151.) Further, I am deeply
indebted to the Rand staff for their work in San Jose because through
their efforts we are beginning to be able to identify the elements which
presently affect our growth.
A major element, if not the dominant element in our growth, we
now realize has been the present national urban growth policy.
A national urban policy does exist now—an inadvertent one—in
fact, this existing national urban policy is what prevents local man­
agement of local policy, as I stated. I will suggest that this inadvertent
national urban policy, made up of elements like mortgage insurance,
tax loopholes, and interstate highway construction, is closer to the heart
of many local urban problems than is any locally determined policy.
The impact on cities of the incentives for private spending inherent
in such Federal policies may be much more important in the long run
than all the direct Federal public expenditures in the cities.
On the first page of the urban development policy there is a photo­
graphic overview of the city of San Jose and it shows the kind of
sprawl that does exist, and this photograph encompasses about onethird of the physical area of the city of San Jose.
From the air, the sprawl is more evident. The view is one of houses
and industrial plants spreading in all directions where not too long
ago there were vineyards and orchards. This visible sprawl covers
a number of less visible, but equally important, related urban prob­
lems: A lack of urban amenities to replace the rural amenities—the



I ll
beauty that disappeared when the orchards were cut down—together
with all the standard and growing problems of congestion and environ­
ment, and with growing problems in providing dollar support for
public services.
These are the disadvantages of San Jose’s rapid growth. San Jose
has also had the major advantage of such growth, a very high and
continuing level of economic prosperity during the growth period.
Rand’s analysis indicates that the impressive prosperity of the area has
been heavily dependent upon this growth and we expect it to continue
to be so dependent, although to a decreasing degree over time. Should
the growth slow down substantially now, however, prosperity in San
Jose would not merely slow down, it would be likely to turn down.
Fortunately, in the short run we do not expect a slowdown substantial
enough to have this negative effect. The problem, as I have said, is
not how to continue growth, but how to control the growth that does
continue— c o n t r o l l i n g the negative effects as the area takes advantage
of the positive ones.
I am not suggesting that we do not have the problems of housing
abandonment, slums, deterioration. San Jose does have its slums and
its poor, but they are simply not the dominant problem in this area—
yet.
What then do San Jose’s growth problems have to do with the other
cities of this country? Well, let me suggest that there are very strong
connections, connections that mean in the final analysis that, although
there are many different city problems in the United States, there is an
urban problem because there is a national urban policy—as I have
suggested, an inadvertent one.
One connection is simply that for those cities where the problem is
erosion—erosion of economic base, departure of the middle class, aban­
donment of whole neighborhoods by people—this economy and these
people are going in large measure to the San Joses of this country.
Now, of course, I don’t mean that literally; very few of the new in­
habitants of the San Jose metropolitan area have come from down­
town Detroit. But San Jose is a major and highly visible part of the
national move of the middle class to the suburbs that has been taking
place since the Second World War. Indeed, San Jose is almost entirely
suburbs. There are large industrial areas, but they are similar to the
suburban industrial areas that are increasingly surrounding cities like
New York and Boston. What is lacking in San Jose is not suburbs, but
a central city in the ordinary Eastern or Midwestern sense. Unlike
New York and Boston, the postwar move to the suburbs in San Jose
started with a small farm center, so that the city almost literally be­
came lost among its suburbs.
This appears to be quite different from the Eastern experience. In
fact, however, it makes San Jose a highly visible illustration of the
problems of the postwar suburbs. What San Jose shows is the conse­
quences of our having no explicit national policy helping to direct the
move from city to suburbs.
Let’s examine this. We can have very little doubt that one way or
another many, many Americans would have moved to something like
the suburbs after the Second World War, regardless of national policy.
The movement was based on the desire of individual families to obtain
their own homes, together with the little bit of green that seemed to



112

be available in areas surrounding the cities. The motivation was there
and in the postwar prosperity the money was there and the movement
was inevitable. But what happened in addition, was that Federal mort­
gage policy under FHA and VA supported this movement by facili­
tating individual moves, ignoring any consequences of the overall
movement aside from the ability of the average citizen—the average
white citizen—to get his little house in the suburbs. To the extent that
T
there was a policy beyond the simple facilitation of the individual
moves, the policy was one which we now recognize as highly perverse.
In the time period beginning in the 1930’s, and not ending until 5
years after the Second World War—the period that shaped today’s
suburban America—the explicit policy of FHA and VA was segrega­
tion—restrictive covenants and so-called homogeneous neighborhoods.
After 1950, the explicit policy changed, but, as we know, public pro­
motion of segregation held on implicity much longer—up to today to
some degree.
In any case, it was Federal housing policy—not the piddling hous­
ing policies for the poor, but the powerful mortgage insurance policies
for the middle class—that facilitated the departure of the middle class
from the cities with the consequent inner city problems and also facili­
tated the immense sprawl of San Jose, with the consequent problems
here. The move out of the cities would have taken place to a great
degree anyhow—but a good policy would have done something for the
cities as this happened. Good policy, for example, might have provided
income support for both cities and the poor who were left behind
in cities. It did not.
Similarly, the San Jose area would have grown rapidly with or
without a more careful Federal housing policy—among other reasons
because of another set of Federal policies having to do with military
procurement—policies that created much of the aerospace and elec­
tronics industry that forms the economic base of Santa Clara County.
But the unplanned sprawl pattern in which San Jose grew must be
credited in large measure to the FHA, to the facilitating of insured
loans for large developers of housing subdivisions.
In any case, I think w e can readily agree that FHA policy has had
^
very much to do with the current problems of cities like Detroit,
Newark, and St. Louis, and the problems of the cities like San Jose
as well as the suburbs of the Eastern and Midwestern cities. Perhaps
that is obvious. What may be less obvious, is that FHA policy
worked—and works—let me emphasize that I am not talking just
about history now, I am talking about current events—in tandem with
another important set of national policies, policies implicit in the
Federal income tax. Here is another very interesting set of connections
between the problems of the Detroits and Newarks and the problems
of the San Joses. Not only does Federal income tax policy with its
deductions for homeownership reinforce the suburban flight and
plight, but in fact Federal tax policy has the interesting effect of
simultaneously encouraging slum deterioration in the cities and en­
couraging urban sprawl in the suburbs and the San Joses.
It has been noted before, that Federal tax law as it was— it is some­
what modified now but is not completely changed—has accelerated
deterioration of inner city slums through its accelerated depreciation
provisions. That is, a tenement owner could buy up buildings, obtain



113
the quick tax advantages of depreciating them rapidly, and then sell
them to another owner who could start the same process, albeit from a
lower level. The built-in incentive here is for quick turnover—getting
in and getting out with minimum maintenance. This has been noted
before. What has been less commented upon is that these and other
provisions of the Federal income tax law have set up the famous real
estate tax shelter in the suburbs and in the San Joses. This tax shelter,
in turn, has encouraged the sprawl pattern of this area.
Add to FHA and tax policy, then, the federally financed highway
system which has made it possible for people to live in the suburbs
and work downtown—in many cases driving on freeways cut through
the slums that have been left behind; add highways, add Federal
military procurement, and subtract items like a decent income main­
tenance system which should have been in an urban policy, but weren’t,
and we have the major bases of a quarter of a century of an inadver­
tent national policy shaping our cities and suburbs. Our current urban
policy is inadvertent, it is powerful and furthermore, it is complex—
so complex that no simple device or reversal can undo what has been
done by the housing, tax, and other policies of 25 years.
Now, to what kinds of conclusions does all this lead us? I am sure
there are many, but as a mayor let me suggest two related ones:
1.
First, these examples of Federal policies illustrate the very im­
portant fact that we city officials have only very limited control over
our cities. The policy wiggle-room for local decisionmakers is re­
markably small.
In the case of the past history of San Jose, it can be argued, and
indeed has been argued by the Nader report on California among other
documents, that the real reason for the sprawl was weak public official­
dom. Well, in a sense, I suppose it was. Until the last few years, San
Jose and Santa Clara County public officials did not stand up against
unplanned sprawl. Legally we could have stood up to the developers,
and to the extent that we did not we were weak. But before I damn
myself and my fellows out of hand, let us point out that it was not only
in San Jose and Santa Clara that public officials did not stand up.
Almost nowhere in the United States have officials effectively resisted
development; in every area, local government allowed and encouraged
sprawl.
If we are to be good analysts we must go beyond the specific cases
of official actions encouraging sprawl, in order to find the common
factor that makes all these allegedly discretionary actions come out
the same. And this common factor, I believe, lies in the inadvertent
national urban policy I have discussed, a policy which set up economic
pressures working through politics to create public policy. It is not
that officials were venal. In this area, at least, there is little allegation
of anybody being on the take. It is not even that they were weak men.
It was rather that the way the system operates, politics is largely
based on economics and the economic pressures set up by our acci­
dental urban policy were not resisted, nor were they likely to be re­
sisted by public officials anywhere, as they passed the regulations and
revisions that facilitated the reshaping of our cities and our suburbs.
It is in this sense that local policy is not under local control—and for
lack of time, I have not even discussed all the constraints put on local
decisionmaking by numerous sets of State laws and regulations.



114
2. Now, in a way, I suppose that if you believe what I have said,
I have provided my fellow city officials with something of an out, a
“ copout,” if you will. That is, we can say, “ look at those big, bad Feds
who set up pressures we couldn’t resist” as well as the State authorities
who constrain local action. We are saying in effect, “ You see there
really wasn’t much w e could do about it—poor us.” But there is some­
^
thing we can do, and we are doing it here in this hearing today. And
that is to say that we recognize that all of the revenue sharing and
categorical grants-in-aid the world will not save America’s cities as
long us our inadvertent national urban policy remains the same. It
is necessary to recognize, of course, the immediate need for more Fed­
eral money going into many of our cities. But the implication of the
HUD and Federal income tax examples is that the real impact of the
Federal money that is being spent is significantly less than the Fed­
eral leverage on the spending of private money—the incentives cre­
ated by public policy that influence private decisions. FH A money,
for example, appears in the Federal budget only in a net sense; since
most FHA loans are repaid and the Government guarantee never has
to be made good, no Federal expenditure ever shows up. Yet it is
pretty clear that FHA has had far more impact on American housing
conditions than have all the moneys going into low-income housing
projects.
The point is that Calvin Coolidge’s statement that “ The business of
America is business” still holds true. The really big fiscal impacts on
urban and other social conditions in the United States today are the
impacts of private spending. And in spite of all the efforts to make
private spending publicly self-conscious, the public interest budgets
of our major corporate spenders are miniscule as compared to the
budgets designed to make a buck for the investors. The major impact
of government—particularly the Federal Government—is in the lever­
age Federal spending has on private spending designed to gain profits.
To illustrate this point, we did a little back-of-the-envelope calcula­
tion that showed that the total HUD expenditures in the San Jose
metropolitan area in a recent year—these exclude FHA because, as I
said, the FHA impact doesn’t even show .up in expenditures—the total
HUD expenditures as such were less than the capital gains tax break
on the appreciation of land values in the area in a similar year. This
figure does not measure the relative impact of such expenditure—it
is difficult to match direct expenditure against leverage—but the point
is that the break of only one of many tax loopholes in the “ real estate
shelter” was, on an initial basis, greater than the conscious attempt of
the Federal Government to affect housing.
What I am saying, then, is that Federal revenue sharing and other
attempts to put Federal tax moneys into the cities are vitally important
in the short run and establishing the principle is important in the long
run. But if we really intend to reshape our American cities—to re­
shape and control the shape of the San Joses and the suburbs as well
as the Detroits and Newarks and New Yorks—then we local officials
are going to have to pay much more attention to the Federal policies
that have shaped and continue to shape our cities.
And you as Members of Congress are going to have to help us fashion
a new national urban policy which will see to their vitality.




115

In the introduction of the first biennial report on national urban
growth, which was prepared by the Domestic Council Committee on
National Growth, I was struck by one passage which read:
The hard, unavoidable fact of the matter, however, is that no single policy,
nor even a single coordinated set of policies, can remedy or even significantly
ameliorate all of our ills. As our problems are many and varied and changing, so
our solutions must be multiple and diversified and flexible.

I will withhold judgment as to whether or not it may be possible
to develop a single national urban policy but I will not withhold the
judgment that an existing and definable set of policies have created
most of those ills. I would offer the hope that the leaders of America
and America’s cities will now take the opportunity to reform the
forces that push urban decay and unplanned growth; our inadvertent
and perhaps uncoordinated set of policies which constitute our pres­
ent national urban policy.
It will not be an easy opportunity to seize—a quarter century of
policy cannot be easily undone, and simple reversal of items like tax
provisions might compound the problems rather than improving
them. What it will take is the careful analysis that did not enter our
current inadvertent urban policy. Analysis plus political responsi­
bility and responsiveness, however, might just make possible the re­
demption of our cities and suburbs.
That’s why these hearings are so important and w'hy your efforts
are to be applauded. Let’s hope that these hearings mark the serious
commencement of this task.
I have appreciated the opportunity to be here and to represent the
U.S. Conference of Mayors and the National League of Cities in
this matter.
Thank you very much, Mr. Chairman.
(The documents “ Urban Development Policies; City of San Jose,
California” ; two reports by the Rand Corporation prepared for the
National Science Foundation, “ Alternative Growth Strategies for San
Jose: Initial Report of the Rand Urban Policy Project” ; and “ Rand
Urban Policy Program: Strategy for Selection of Cities and First
Year-Plan,” referred to by Mayor Mineta in his statement, follow:)







URBAN
DEVELOPMENT
POLICIES
City of San Jose, California

CITY COUNCIL
N orm an Y . Mineta, A/layor
David J. Goglio, Vice-M ayor
Joseph A . Co I la
A lfredo Garza
Janet Gray Hayes
W alter V. Hays
Roy B. Naylor

CITY MANAGER
T . W. Fletcher




San Jose's first Urban Development Policy was adopted by the
C ity Council on O ctober 19, 1970 and revised A pril 10, 1972.

118

BACKGROUND

The goal o f the Urban Development Policy is to insure that
San Jose's fu tu re growth will proceed in an orderly, planned
manner to achieve a balanced composition of industrial,
com m ercial, residential, and public uses which preserve and
advance the qu ality o f the existing environment. As an
im portant step in achieving this goal, the policies seek to
assure th at fu tu re development w ill occur in such a manner as
to provide efficient and economical public services and to
m axim ize the utilization of existing and proposed public
facilities.
San Jose's rapid growth over a wide geographic area during the
last tw e n ty years poses physical lim itations to the efficient
provision o f public services. It is generally agreed, however,
that a more cohesive and consistent pattern of development
could result in lower costs to construct and maintain com m u­
nity facilities and to provide needed public services. More
efficien t public services w ill obviously be of economic benefit
to the taxpayer.
W hile a number o f conditions were previously factors in San
Jose's scattered growth, present boundary agreements between
cities and the Urban Development Policy recommendations
adopted by the Local Agency Form ation Commission
(L A F C O ), the Santa Clara C ounty Association of Planning
O fficials (SCCAPO) and the Planning Policy C om m ittee (PPC)
w ill increase San Jose's ability to control growth in a more
cohesive manner. The L A FC O Urban Developm ent Policy
recommendations include the statement that urban develop­




ment should occur w ithin cities. A vital part of an urban
development policy is agreement w ith the C ounty o f Santa
Clara that urban-type developments requiring municipal
services should not be allowed to develop in the unincorpo­
rated area o f the C ounty. Cooperation between the C ity and
County to carry out the urban development recommendations
made by the City-C ounty Planning Com m ittee in October of
1969 w ill also support San Jose's Urban Development Policy.
The C ity-C oun ty Planning C om m ittee recommendations are
contained in the 1970 Urban Development Policy report
available from the San Jose C ity Planning Departm ent.
A n integral part o f an effective urban development policy is
the C ity's annexation policy. This policy must be consistent
w ith, and related to the goals of the Urban Development
Policy.
In order to assure that the Urban Development Policy
effectively direct urban growth and reflect continuing changes
in growth trends and capital facilities, the Policy is reviewed
annually by the C ity Council. The Urban Development Policy
and the related A nnexation Policy were amended on A p ril 10,
1972. The policies were revised after consideration of updated
inform ation regarding development, existing and planned
capital facilities and vacant land. The Council also considered
the recommended Urban Development Policy definitions and
policies submitted by the Local Agency Form ation Commis­
sion (L A F C O ), the Santa Clara C ounty Association of
Planning Officials (SCCAPO) and the Planning Policy C om m it­
tee (PPC). The revised policies are presented here.




119

ANALYSIS
DESIGNATION OF URBAN
DEVELOPMENT AREAS
The objective of the Urban Developm ent Policy is to stage
growth in a manner which provides fo r orderly and planned
growth. In order to accomplish this objective, it was necessary
to consider (1) the amount of land which will be needed
annually to accommodate new growth (2) the areas of the C ity
which currently have adequate utilities and facilities and (3)
the amount o f land which must be available to avoid artificial
inflation o f land values. The area designated for immediate
urban growth should be th at area which is now serviced or
proposed to be serviced w ithin five years, provided the area is
large enough to accommodate projected growth and avoid
inflation of land values.

LAND REQUIREMENT AND RATE OF GROWTH
Based on Federal decennial census figures, the annual
increment o f growth between 1960 and 1970 was 2 4 ,2 0 0
persons. Between 1962 and 1967, 8 ,0 0 0 acres o f land were
developed fo r roadways, com m unity facilities and private land
uses o f all kinds. Based on the growth, approxim ately 64 acres
of land are needed fo r each 1,000 people added to the
population. W ith the increased number o f m ultiple dwellings
and townhouses added between 1967 and 1972, it is likely
that the 6 4 acres o f land per 1,000 population ratio is high.
Assuming the population o f San Jose will continue to grow at
the same annual rate which has occurred fo r the past ten years,
approxim ately 2 5 ,0 0 0 persons per year, 1,600 acres w ill be
required annually to accommodate growth. This acreage
requirement represents the maxim um am ount o f land needed
annually because it is based on a high growth rate and low
density pattern o f development. In the year follow ing the
adoption of the Urban Development Policy, October 1970 to
October 1971, approxim ately 1,500 acres were developed.




120

ANALYSIS
DESIGNATION OF SERVICED AREAS
In

order

to

iden tify

the

area which

should

be

initially

considered fo r urban development, the location and service
areas of existing and proposed urban services and facilities
were mapped. These maps are included in the 1970 Urban
Development Policy publication available fro m the San Jose
Planning Departm ent. Essential city services and basic utilities
were considered in designating serviced areas. Essential city
services are police and fire protection, streets, and library and
park services. Basic utilities are sanitary services, storm
drainage facilities and water service.
An urban area was determined by utilizing the service area
maps to determ ine a boundary consisting o f areas having or
proposed to have urban services and facilities. The urban or
serviced area contains approxim ately 4 8 ,1 0 0 acres. O f these
2 1 ,5 0 0 acres (45% ) are developed, 5 ,6 0 0 acres (11% ) are
approved fo r development and 2 1 ,0 0 0 acres (44%) are vacant.
The total of the land approved fo r development and the vacant
land is 2 6 ,6 0 0 acres; this is enough land fo r 16 years o f future
growth.

EFFECT OF LAND AVAILABILITY
ON LAND PRICE
In general, as long as sufficient choice is provided, it is
assumed th at the value of the developable land would not be
significantly affected. Land w ithin a given area generally
appreciates as the land develops. Based on the previous
assumption th at 1600 acres is the m axim um probable number
of acres which could be developed annually, it is fe lt that the
26 ,6 0 0 acres in the urban area would be a sufficient supply to
avoid artificial inflation o f land values. Annual review o f the
policy w ill assure that enough land remains in the urban area
to avoid artificial inflation o f land values.




121

e

REVISION IN THE URBAN
DEVELOPMENT POLICY
The Urban Developm ent and Annexation Policies were revised
on A pril 10, 1972. T he new policies are presented on the
following pages. The major changes are briefly mentioned
here. The Urban Development Policy, as adopted in 1970,
contained three development areas: urban, urban transition
and urban reserve. Urban areas were considered fo r immediate
development; urban reserve areas were assumed to be not
required fo r urbanization in the next 15 years. Transition areas
were an interim category between the tw o. A fte r consideration
of the size o f the urban area at the annual review, the
transition area was eliminated by placing developed areas in
the urban area and the undeveloped areas in the urban reserve.
The transition policy was replaced by a transition process
providing fo r planned expansion of the urban area. T h e
transition process describes a procedure and set o f criteria to
be used to determ ine whether properties mapped as urban
reserve should be considered fo r development.
T he Urban Development Policy definitions and policies were
modified to reflect th e new transition process and analysis of
the L A FC O Urban Developm ent Policy recommendations.




URBAN
DEVELOPMENT
MAP
to

to

LEG EN D
Urban
Reserve

123
URBAN DEVELOPMENT AREAS
The Urban Developm ent M ap designates
areas: U R B A N and U R B A N R E S E R V E .

tw o

kinds

of

U R B A N — U R B A N A R E A S consist o f existing urban devel­
oped areas and vacant and agriculture land either incorporated
or unincorporated, w ith in a city's sphere of influence, which
are now served by existing urban facilities, utilities and services
or are proposed to be served by urban facilities, utilities and
services provided in the first 5 years o f the city's adopted
Capital Im provem ent Program. The boundary around these
urban areas w ill be called "U rban Areas Boundary.'' Urban
Areas may be divided into tw o categories:
Urbanized Areas — This includes all urbanized areas that are
now part of the city. It also includes urbanized areas that
are presently unincorporated th at are w ithin the C ity's
'Urban Area B oundary."
Urban Expansion Areas — Urban expansion areas consist of
vacant and agricultural land proposed for urbanization,
served by utilities or public facilities now existing or
provided fo r in the first 5 years of the C ity's adopted

POLICY




Capital Im provem ent Program, and placed w ith in the city's
"U rban Area Boundary." (O ther vacant and agricultural
land not ready or not desired fo r urbanization w ill be
placed in U R B A N R E S E R V E A R E A S ). These lands may be
incorporated or unincorporated and in some cases the land
may be in a sewer district.
A portion o f the Urban Area consist o f Urban Open Space
Areas. Urban Open Space Areas are composed of lands
w ithin the Urban Area including publicly owned lands such
as parks, u tility corridors, w ater areas and flood control
channels and areas which w ill be designated in the future as
required for park and recreation purposes. This category
could also include certain privately-owned lands upon
which development should be perm anently prohibited for
reasons o f public health, safety and welfare; such as
landslide areas, earthquake hazard areas, and airport flight
path zones. Such areas would be designated in the General
Plan.
U R B A N R E S E R V E — These are generally areas not readily
accessible to u tility extensions or where development of
com m unity facilities are not programmed. Extensive highway
systems may also be required and are also n ot programmed to
serve these areas properly. These are areas which include lands
which may be in the C ity or may be in the C ounty and in San
Jose's area of influence. These areas are generally open in
nature and contain no urban development. These areas shown
in the urban reserve are generally not required fo r urbanization
in the next 15 year period.
A n undesignated portion o f the urban reserve may be in close
proxim ity to existing urban development and may m eet stated
criteria fo r development, as defined in the urban transition
process. These areas may be required fo r developm ent w ithin
the next 15 years.

124
A portion o f the urban reserve contains permanent open space.
This category, includes publicly owned lands including parks,
u tility corridors, w ater areas and flood channels. It could also
include lands upon which developm ent is to be permanently
prohibited fo r reasons of public health, w elfare and safety;
more specifically to meet such needs as: the aesthetic and
psychological needs of an urban population fo r open space;
the requirements fo r an adequate air basin, w ater shed, and
ground w ater recharge areas fo r the maintenance o f adequate
air and water quality; the maintenance of acceptable noise
levels; the consideration o f public safety w ith regard to
landslide, earthquake, fire hazard, flooding, and air flight
areas, and the maintenance o f ah ecological balance. These
areas w ould be designated in the General Plan.

b

URBAN DEVELOPMENT POLICY
1. Existing and fu tu re urban land uses should be in cities.
Urban expansion should be planned and programmed by
the cities on a staged basis, in cooperation w ith the county
and L A F C O .
2. Urban areas should be designated by cities, in cooperation
w ith th e County and L A F C O .
Areas identified as urban on the Urban Developm ent Map
either in the C ity or in the C ounty, and w ith in the existing
u tility systems, shall be encouraged fo r immediate develop­
ment. Individual areas shall be reviewed as to their ability
to be served by the existing or proposed fa cility systems.
(Five-Y ear Capital Im provem ent Program.) Both urbanized
and urban expansion areas in the C ounty should be
pre-zoned as provided fo r under existing procedures o f the
C ity Council. Th e C ounty should not allow urban uses in
th e urban area. Th e C ity should seek ways o f establishing
planning and development control w ith in sewer districts in
the C ity's urban area.
In parts o f the urban area where fu ll facilities and services
do not exist and are not funded, the C ity should plan for
the expansion o f facilities and services and include them in
the 5-year Capital Im provem ent Program.
T h e C ity Manager shall report to the Council on any special
funding required to provide public facilities in urban area at
such tim e as specific development is proposed.
In order to assure th at all new urban development be
adequately served, each developer w ill be required to pay
the incremental cost fo r new capital facilities created by his
development. This paym ent w ill be toward the cost o f park
land acquisition and first phase park development, libraries,
fire stations; parks and public works maintenance facilities,
and com m unication equipment.




3. Areas indicated as Urban Reserve on the Developm ent M ap
are to be considered non-urban areas. N o development
should be perm itted in most cases. In a few cases, areas
mapped as urban reserve'will meet the criteria described in
the urban transition process and may be considered for
urban development. Exceptions m ay be considered in other
cases by report of the C ity Manager to the Council only if
development is considered to be o f outstanding value to the
existing or future urban com m unity. T he report shall
include an assessment o f the economic and other com m u­
nity benefits o f the proposal. Proposed funding o f special
costs to the developer, and special costs to th e C ity , if any,
shall be included.
Where such a report shows th at the costs of developing are
higher than ordinary in the urban area, then the extra costs
o f sanitary sewers, and other u tilities shall be borne by the
developer. Where feasible, reimbursable contracts may be
employed fo r the construction o f municiple w ater facilities.
However, this policy may vary, depending upon the
economic and other benefits derived by the C ity in the
approval of the development.
Where the C ity has no facilities planned in the near future
for parks and recreation, fire protection, libraries or public
w orks maintenance facilities the developer may be required
to participate in the additional costs o f said facilities and to
provide fo r these as well as other services. T he am ount he.is
required to contribute w ill vary w ith the type and size of
the development he is proposing.
Urban reserve areas should not be considered fo r pre-zoning
by the C ity.
The C ity w ill consider the recommendations o f the
County's urban developm ent/open space program in desig­
nating San Jose's urban reserve area in the future.
4. Properties in an undesignated portion o f the urban reserve
area may m eet criteria necessary for urban development.
Properties in the urban reserve w ill be evaluated on an
individual application basis using the urban transition
process, to determ ine whether they meet necessary criteria.
The follow ing urban transition process would be used to
consider development. When a specific developm ent pro­
posal is made fo r an area mapped as part o f the urban
reserve, the C ity Manager's report to the Council on the
proposal should include an evaluation to determ ine whether
the property m et the stated transition criteria as well as an
assessment o f the economic and other com m unity benefits
o f the proposal. T he transition criteria would require the
property to be: (1) located on or near the urban edge, (2)
adjacent to existing development, and (3) generally served
by existing or proposed facilities or services. Areas meeting
these criteria w ould be considered fo r development.
5. T h e C ity shall designate open space areas (in conformance
w ith State Law ). A ll possible devices should be used to
m aintain this land in open space.

125
6. Urban Development shall be reviewed by the C ity Manager
prior to the adoption of the Capital Program or operating
budget fo r each fiscal year. Findings and recommendations
w ill be forwarded to the C ity Council for annual review and
adoption.
7. A ctivities of the Industrial Development Commission and
Housing Task Force should generally be structured w ithin
the framework of this policy. Conversely, proposals and
recommendations of these1 committees shall be evaluated
for their significance to development in future reviews of
this Development Policy. Sim ilarly, all development will be
evaluated on a continuing basis in order to assess its
ecological implications. These findings also will be consid­
ered in future reviews of this Development Policy.

ANNEXATION POLICY
The Annexation Policy of the City should conform closelv to
the Development Policy. The act of annexation itself is
frequently an integral step in the development process.
In the light of the factors and considerations previously set
forth, the following Annexation Policy is established:

POLICY


http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/- 72 - pt, 1 - - 9
81-745 O
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

1. Those unincorporated areas w ithin the C ity's sphere of
influence which are generally w ithin reach o f essential city
services and which have or are w ithin reach of all basic
utilities are encouraged for immediate annexation.
2. These areas lacking one or more of the basic utilities and
the essential city services (i.e. the Urban Reserve) shall be
considered for annexation only on an exception basis, when
in the interest of the C ity o f San Jose. The C ity Manager
will prepare a report for the Council related to any
proposed annexation in the Urban Reserve. If the developer
has a specific development plan for the property, this
report shall include (1) an evaluation o f w hether or not the
development is of outstanding value, and (2) a cost revenue
analysis considering both capital facility expenditures and
C ity operating costs which will be created by the proposed
development. The report shall also include an analysis of
the effect of extending urban services on adjacent areas that
can also be served. This report w ill provide the Council w ith
a basis for deciding if the proposed annexation w ill lead to
a development of outstanding value to the existing or
future urban com m unity. Only proposals which meet this
criteria should be perm itted to annex. If no specific
development is proposed, the report shall include (1) a cost
revenue analysis fo r providing services to the property in its
current land use, (2) a cost revenue analysis fo r providing
services to the property for the highest use allowed under
the General Plan, and (3) an analysis o f the effect that
extending facilities to serve the projected General Plan land
use will have on adjacent areas.

CONCLUSION
The direction of future growth and development is among the
most pressing issues facing San Jose today. W hile the policies
presented in this report do not answer all questions and resolve
ail doubts, they do set a point of departure and a fram ework
for future review and revision.




126




URBAN DEVELOPMENT POLICIES
City of San Jose, California

CITY COUNCIL

to

Ronald R. James Mayor
Norman Y. Mineta Vice Mayor
Joseph A. Colla
David J. Goglio
Kurt Gross
Walter V. Hays
Virginia C. Shaffer

Thomas W. Fletcher

City Manager
The Urban Development Policies
were adopted by the City Council
on October 19,1970







BACKGROUND
The goal of an urban development policy is to insure that
San Jose’s future growth will proceed in an orderly, planned
manner to achieve a balanced composition o f industrial, com­
mercial, residential, and public uses which preserve and advance
the quality of the existing environment.
As a first corollary of that goal, development in the future
should be structured to provide a full range o f employment,
consumer, housing, and public use opportunities.
Of equal importance to that goal, future development must
respect the environmental requirements o f an urban area and
maintain or enhance the physical and social quality o f life in that
area. This is not to imply total return to a pastoral setting — which
is behind us; but rather the development o f a modern urban
center, which people undeniably seek, with a healthful and
pleasant physical setting.
Thirdly, consistent with the longer-range goals above,
development in the immediate future should be designed to
provide efficient and economical public services and to maximize
utilization of present capital improvement facilities.
San Jose’s rapid growth over a wide geographic area during the
last twenty years poses physical limitations to the efficient

provision of public services. It is generally agreed that a more
cohesive and consistent pattern of development could result in
lower costs to construct and maintain community facilities and to
provide needed public services. More efficient public services will
obviously be of economic benefit to the taxpayer. While a number
of conditions were previously factors in San Jose’s scattered
growth, present boundary agreements between cities as well as
apparent County policy that urban development should occur
within cities, might now provide a means of controlling San Jose’s
growth in a more cohesive fashion.
A vital part o f an urban development policy to insure cohesive
and orderly growth is agreement with the County of Santa Clara
that urban-type developments requiring municipal services should
not be allowed to develop in the unincorporated area of the
County.
In addition, an integral part of an urban development policy is
the annexation policy of the City. The proposed annexation
policy encourages all land within the C ity ’s sphere of influence to
be ultimately annexed and developed in the City. Therefore, the
annexation policy must be consistent with, and related to, the
goals of the urban development policy.




ANALYSIS
A.
LAND REQUIREMENTS AND RATE OF GROWTH
The Planning Department has estimated fttt'at with San Jose’s
current rate of growth the population w ill increase by
approximately 130,000 persons from 1970 to 1975. This
depends on the economic conditions and other variables
which are beyond this C ity ’s control. The April 1, 1970
population was estimated at 436,965. The 1975 total
population estimated will be 566,000. This compares with a
population increase in San Jose of 126,300 between 1962
and 1967. Between 1962 and 1967, 8,000 acres o f land were
developed for roadways, community facilities, and private
land uses of all kinds. Approximately 64 acres o f land are
needed for each 1,000 people added to the population.
Between 1965 and 1967, the density increased by
approximately five people per acre. With the increased
number of multiple dwellings and townhouses added between
1967 and 1970, it is likely that the 64 acres of land per 1,000
population ratio is too high. San Jose will probably need
somewhat less than 8,000 acres during the next five years to
accommodate growth.
B.

TABLE 1. LAND A V A IL A B IL IT Y BY AREA. 1970

GEOGRAPHIC AREAS MOST LIKELY TO DEVELOP
(MAP I)
Little land remains to be developed in the central and
western sections of San Jose. The major impact o f future
development will probably be felt in Alviso, North San Jose,
Berryessa, Alum Rock, Evergreen, Edenvale, Coyote, Willow
Glen, and the Almaden area. The outer boundary o f these
areas is the demarcation between the valley flo or and the
foothills. This is reflected in the visual exhibits showing
urbanization. In the next five years the major pressure for
development will probably be in the Berryessa, Edenvale and
Evergreen areas.

Acreage

B
Acreage
Approved for

Developed

Development

A

Area
Alviso
North San Jose
Berryessa
Alum Rock
Evergreen
Edenvale/Coyote
W illow Glen/Alm aden
TO TAL

310 (19%)
1,427 (23%)
1,020 (25%)
4,417
4,98 6
3,633
3,703

308
27 6
639
85

(19%)
( 4%)
(17%)
( 1%)

(68%)
(37%)
(18%)
(45%)

1,139 ( 8%)
1,362 ( 7%)
3 0 0 ( 4%)

19,4 96 (32%)

4,109 ( 7%)

C

D

Vacant
Acreage

Total Acres
o f Land

1,011 (62%)
4.61 4 (74%)

4,249 (51%)

1,629
6,317
3,924
6,542
1 3,490
20,241
8,252

3 6 ,7 90 (61%)

60,395

2,265
2,040
7,365
15,2 46

(58%)
(31%)
(55%)
(75%)




LAND AVAILABLE
FOR DEVELOPMENT
DEVELOPED LANDS
LANDS COMMITTED TO DEVELOPMENT 1970-75
PLANNING AREAS BOUNDARIES
SPHERE OF INFLUENCE BOUNDARIES




UTILITY SITUATION (Map II - Sanitary Sewer System;
Map III — Storm Sewer System; Map IV — Water System)
Maps II, III and IV indicate what is in place now, as well as
those u tility extensions in the current Five-year Capital
Program, and the proposed bond issue.
For the sanitary network, the criteria used was that an area
within 1,000 feet of an existing or proposed line could be
reasonably serviced by that line. The areas not served by
storm sewers were defined as those areas that were not
connected to an existing or proposed system nor could be
connected by construction covered by the required storm
sewer area fees. For water service, the criteria was simply
“ yes” an existing system can serve the area, or “ no” an
existing system cannot serve the area.
The utility system maps clearly indicate that certain areas
cannot be urbanized without further u tility extension.
EFFECT OF LAND A V A IL A B ILIT Y ON LAND PRICE
In general, as long as sufficient choice is provided, it is
assumed that the value of the developable land would not be
significantly affected. Land within a given area generally
appreciates as the land develops. However, the value o f the
land which might be designated as not available for
immediate development would suffer a decrease in value in
proportion to the length of time which the undevelopable
status remains.
The total acreage, as shown in Table 2, available for
development or approved for development, is approximately
24,000 acres. Based on the previous assumption that 8,000
acres would be the maximum possible number of acres that
could be developed in the next five years, it is then felt that
the 24,000 acres would be a sufficient supply to avoid
artificial inflation o f land values. However, as acreage is
developed, provision should be made to provide for
additional developable acreage so that the supply of land
would not be reduced in future years

TABLE 2. TOTAL ACRES A V A ILA B LE FOR DEVELOPMENT
UNDER EXISTING U T ILIT Y SYSTEM, 1970

A

Area
Alviso
N orth S.).
Berryessa
A lu m Rock
Evergreen
Edenvale/
C oyote
W illow G len/
Alm aden
TO TAL

B

Acreage
Developed

V acant Acreage
A pproved fo r
D evelopm ent

310 (19%)

D

E

Acreage
Vacant

T otal Acres
o f Land

4,986 (37%)

2,278 (18%)

1,629
6,317
3,924
6,542
1 3,490

3,633 (1 8%)

1,362 ( 7%)

4,680 (23%)

10,5 66 (52%)

20,241

3,703 (45%)

3 0 0 ( 4%)

2,293 (36%)

1,316 (15%)

8,252

4,109 ( 7%) 2 0 ,3 4 2 (3 4 % )

16,448 (27%)

60,395

19 ,4 9 6 (3 2 % )

635
2,702
2,265
2,040
5,087

(39%)
(43%)
(58%)
(31%)
(37%)

3 7 6 (2 3 % )

308
276
639
85
1,1 39

1,427 (2 3%)
1,020 (25%)
4,417 (68%)

(19%)
( 4%)
(1 7%)
( 1%)
( 8%)

C
Acreage
Available fo r
D evelopm ent

1,913 (30%)







M AP 11
1
STORM SEWER SYSTEM
•

PRESENTLY SERVED AREAS
AREAS TO BE SERVED
FROM EXISTING FUNDS

muk
‘

AREAS TO BE SERVED
FROM FUTURE BOND PROGRAM







E.

PUBLIC FACILITIES (Map V - Fire Service Areas; Map VI
— Library Service Areas; Map VII — Park Service Areas; Map
V III — School Service Areas; Map IX — Transportation
Network)
Maps V through IX show existing facilities, funded facilities
in the Five-Year Capital Improvement Program, and facilities
in the future bond issue.

The criteria used to delineate the service areas of the facilities
reviewed are as follows:
1. FIRE STATIONS. Within residential areas no section
should be farther than five minutes from a station. This
generally translates to a radius o f Vh miles from the
facility. (Map V — Fire Service Areas)
2. LIBRARIES. The service area is defined in terms of the
number of people served, which is generally considered to
be 45,000 to 70,000 people. This translates into
approximately a two-mile service radius. (Map VI —
Library Service Areas)
3. OPEN SPACE. (Parks) There are two general service
patterns required — one for neighborhood parks
(minimum three to five acres) and one for community
parks (ten-plus acres). Respectively, the service radius for
neighboriiood parks are 1 or V mile, depending on the
4
i
facilities provided; and one mile for community parks.
(Map VII — Park Service Areas)
The service areas for the parks that will be built with
money from future bond programs are not shown on Map
VII. However, the money provided should be sufficient to
provide the needed services in the urban areas.
All existing school sites that meet requirements for open
space singly or as part of an adjacent neighborhood or
community park are counted as part of the overall system.
4. SCHOOLS. Service areas are a direct funtion of
population. In general, it is assumed that elementary,
junior high and high schools average 700; 1,000; and
1,400 students, respectively. Using existing density and a
given percentage of population in each of the age ranges
and assuming the area fu lly developed, the service areas

for each is as follows: elementary .7 square miles, junior
high 1.15 square miles, high school 1.3 square miles (Map
V III — School Service Areas)
5. TRANSPORTATION. The transportation network is
primarily a highway system consisting of interstate and
state freeways, county expressways and major four and
six-lane city thoroughfares. The state and interstate
system shown consists of two designations — the existing
system and the planned and programmed system for
future construction. The county expressway system
shown consists of existing expressways, expressways
under construction and funded, and expressways planned
but not funded. The major four and six-lane city
thoroughfare system consists of existing roads, roads
programmed in the Five-Year Capital Improvement
Program, or the future bond issue.
Planned major thoroughfares consist of future systems
which are not funded under the current Capital
Improvement Program or the future bond issue, and other
planned major thoroughfares which are not funded and
may be constructed through future bond issues or by
developers as a requirement. (Map IX — Transportation
Network)
The community facility maps, Maps V through IX, indicate
areas served but not fully developed. Many existing facilities
operate below capacity. However, when possible, facilities
like fire stations are only manned and equipped for the
existing increment of development.
Generally, the cost of providing services in partiallydeveloped areas is substantially higher than when the area is
fu lly developed. In some instances, higher capital costs are
also incurred because two are built in the same period of
time, each partially used, rather than constructing one
facility that can be more fu lly used.
In areas now served by utilities but not served by all public
facilities, consideration could be given to encouraging
development in areas where the cost o f developing public
facilities is least expensive.




MAP V
FIRE SERVICE AREAS

4 )

EXISTING
FUNDED BUT NOT CONSTRUCTED
PROPOSED IN FUTURE BOND PROGRAM
COUNTY







MAP VII
PARK SERVICE AREAS

IJ

SERVICE AREAS FOR
NEIGHBORHOOD AND COMMUNITY PARKS
REGIONAL

#

NEIGHBORHOOD-SCHOOL PARK SITES







TRANSPORTATION NETWORK
M A jO R THROUGHFARES
------FU LLY IMPROVED
— FUNDED
™ PLANNED
EXPRESSWAYS
------ FU LLY IMPROVED
- — FUNDED
— PLANNED
FREEWAYS
------FU LLY IMPROVED
— FUNDED




URBAN DEVELOPMENT AREAS (Map X - Urban Devel­
opment Policy Areas)
The urban development policy areas, Map X, is a synthesis of
all material previously discussed with regard to public
facilities and utilities within the existing situation, the
Five-Year Capital Improvement Program, and the future
bond issue. This map desingates three kinds of areas: Urban,
Urban Transistion, and Urban Reserve.
URBAN. This area on the map is composed of all the existing
urbanized areas within the City of San Jose and within the
County of Santa Clara, within our area of influence as well as
those areas that are vacant and are ready for urbanization.
They generally may be served by utilities or public facilities
now existing or within the Five-Year Capital Improvement
Program or the future bond issue.
URBAN TRANSITION. Areas of urban transition are those
lands adjacent to urban areas which are neither programmed
for public facilities nor utility extensions. These lands are a
combination of areas both on the valley floor and in the hills.
These are areas generally not annexed to the City and have
not been urbanized.
URBAN RESERVE. These are generally areas in the hills and
not readily accessible to utility extensions or where develop­
ment of community facilities is not programmed. Extensive
highway systems may also be required and are also not
p'rogrammed to serve these areas properly. These are areas
which include lands which may be in the City or may be in
the County and in our area of influence. These areas are
generally open in nature and contain no urban development.
These areas shown in the urban reserve are not required for
urbanization in the next 15-year period.
URBAN DEVELOPMENT POLICY
I.

Areas identified as urban on the Urban Development
Map either in the City or in the County, and within the
existing u tility systems, shall be encouraged for im­
mediate development. Individual areas shall be reviewed
as to their ability to be served by the existing or

proposed public facility systems (Five-Year Capital
Program and proposed bond issue). All County areas
should be pre-zoned as provided for under existing
procedures of the City Council. The City Manager shall
report to the Council on any special funding required to
provide public facilities in these areas, at such time as
specific development is proposed.
Those areas outside o f existing u tility systems identified
as Urban Transition on the Development Map
should be pre-zoned for agriculture as an interim
measure. Upon the filing of a specific development
proposal in these areas, the City Manager shall review
the proposal and submit a complete report to the
Council assessing the economic and other corflRMJnitv
benefits of the proposal. Proposed funding oWpecial
costs to the developer and special costs to the City, if
any, shall be included.
Areas indicated as Urban Reserve on the Development
Map are to be considered non-urban areas. No develop­
ment should be permitted. Exceptions may be con­
sidered by report of City Manager to the Council if the
development is considered to be of outstanding value to
the existing or future urban community. These areas
should not be considered for pre-zoning by the City.
Urban development shall be reviewed by the City
Manager prior to the adoption of the Capital Program or
operating budget for each fiscal year. Findings and
recommendations will be forwarded to the City Council
for annual review and adoption.
Activities of the Industrial Development Committee and
Housing Task Force should generally be structured
within the framework o f this policy. Conversely, pro­
posals and recommendations of these committees shall
be evaluated for their significance to development in
future reviews o f this Development Policy. Similarly, all
development will be evaluated on a continuing basis in
order to assess its ecological implications. These findings
also will be considered in future reviews of this
Development Policy.







ANNEXATION MAP (MAP XI - ANNEXATION POLICY
AREAS)
The Annexation Map identifies three types o f geographic
areas.
Type I sections depict unincorporated areas within the C ity ’s
sphere of influence which are generally within reach of
essential City services and which have or are within reach of
all basic utilities. The term “ essential services” refers to
police and fire protection, streets, and library and park
services. The term “ basic utilities” refers to sanitary sewers,
storm drainage facilities and water service.
Type II sections depict unincorporated areas within the
C ity ’s sphere of influence which lack one or more basic
utilities and might not be within reach of essential City
services.
Type III sections depict unincorporated areas within the
C ity ’s sphere of influence which lack most or all of the basic
utilities and essential City services.

ANNEXATION POLICY
The Annexation Policy o f the City should conform closely to the
Development Policy. The act o f annexation itself is frequently an
integral step in the development process.
In the light o f the factors and considerations previously set forth,
the following Annexation Policy is established:
h -l

Those unincorporated areas w ithin the C ity ’s sphere of
influence which are generally within reach o f essential
City services and which have or are within reach of all
basic utilities are encouraged for immediate annexation.
II.

Those areas lacking one or more of the basic utilities
and the essential City services shall be considered for
annexation only on an exception basis, when in the
interests of the City o f San Jose.







CITY-COUNTY RECOMMENDATIONS ON URBAN
DEVELOPMENT
The four recommendations (see Appendix) made by the joint
City-County Planning Committee and recommended to both
the City Council of San Jose and the Board of Supervisors as
policy, are most important.
San Jose will not be able to effectively have a realistic growth
or annexation policy unless these recommendations are
carried out. Both legislative bodies have met and discussed
the recommendations. They have indicated their general
agreement and have asked both City and County Planning
and Legal Staffs to recommend solutions to recommenda­
tions 1 and 4. San Jose is now working toward implementa­
tion of recommendations 2 and 3 through the adoption of
this Development Policy.
The Development Policy speaks directly to the City-County
Planning Committee recommendations 2 and 3. As adopted,
this Policy would fu lfill the C ity ’s obligation to stage and
direct growth in its area o f influence and provide urban
services through a reasonable development plan. The full
intent of these policies, however, cannot be realized until the
County provides a means to implement its part o f the policy
by not considering urban-type zoning.
It is also important to implement City-County recommenda­
tion 4 if the geographic areas now served by sewer districts
are, in the future, to be served by the City of San Jose. These
areas, both urbanized and vacant, must become part of the
City o f San Jose. State legislation should be recommended by
both legal staffs with regard to these districts. It is only
proper that these areas pay their share for City major streets,
adjacent lighting, etc.
CONCLUSION
The direction o f future growth and development is among the
most pressing issues facing San Jose today. The policies adopted in
this report do not answer all questions and resolve all doubts.
These policies, however, set a point of departure and a framework
for future review and revision.

ANALYSIS
A. ZONING
1. THE CHANGING URBAN PATTERN

Appendix
October 29, 1969
TO:
FROM:
SUBJECT:

City-County Planning Committee
City and County Planning Staffs
Zoning o f Unincorporated Areas Within the City of
San Jose Sphere of Influence

A t the August meeting of the City-County Planning Committee,
the City and County staffs were asked to prepare a report on
whether the County can or should relinquish zoning within San
Jose’s sphere o f influence. The question cannot be answered by a
simple yes or no. It is not recommended at this time that the
County give up any legal zoning powers. It is recommended that
the intent o f such a request be carried out as follows:




I.

GENERAL RECOMMENDATIONS
RECOMMENDATION 1: The County should reaffirm the
general policy that URBAN DEVELOPMENT SHOULD
OCCUR WITHIN CITIES,
RECOMMENDATION 2: The City should define urban
development areas, including both incorporated and unincor­
porated areas, prepare a program in cooperation with the
County for extending services to these areas on a staged basis,
and plan and prezone the unicorporated area which is
intended fo r annexation.
RECOMMENDATION 3: The County should adopt a policy
o f not considering urban-type zoning in those areas where the
City has accepted responsibility for programmed logical
expansion and has prezoned the area.
RECOMMENDATION 4: The Local Agency Formation
Commission (LAFCO) should authorize a study by San Jose
to explore ways by which San Jose may assume the functions
o f Sanitation Districts 2 and 3.

The tremendous population growth in Santa Clara County
for the past decade has produced a shift from a
predominantly rural to a predominantly urban pattern of
development. Because o f this shift, the justification for
the County to provide urban-type services has diminished
and the need for the County to provide additional
countywide programs, services, and facilities has in­
creased. With this change in urban pattern, the policy
w ithin which new development takes place has changed.
With regard to zoning, two examples demonstrate this
evolution:
a. On November 28, 1967, the Board of Supervisors
adopted a resolution which “ discourages applications
fo r zone changes and use permits in those situations
where the development o f real property for residential,
commercial, industrial, and all other urban uses require
the existence of various public utilities and facilities
such as water and storm and sanitary sewers, and such
facilities are not available within unincorporated ter­
ritory o f the County.”
b. On August 4, 1969, the City Council o f San Jose
adopted the policy “ that, rather than accepting the
County’s zoning, the Council will determine zoning of
all areas annexed to the City, except those areas served
by a Sanitation District.”
Some years ago the City Council became concerned with
conflicts over City-County zoning and adopted a policy of
accepting the County zoning when the land was annexed.
Ironically, this tended to shift the responsibility for
unpopular zoning to the County. The Council now
reviews County zoning upon annexation and grants the
appropriate City zoning based on its merits. This policy,
however, provides little incentive for new developments to
annex to the City if necessary utilities are available from
special districts, particularly, sewer districts.




COUNTY RESPONSIBILITY TO PROPERTY OWNERS
AND CITIZENS

CITY RESPONSIBILITY
AND CITIZENS

The County is responsible to individual property owners
to provide the level of services consistent with the type of
development. Services to property owners in agricultural
areas are different from those provided in urban areas. As
more and more islands of unincorporated land are formed
within the urban areas, it will become more costly for the
County to serve these areas. For example, the sheriff will
have to travel through large areas of incorporated land to
respond to calls in unincorporated areas.

The City should provide urban services to urban develop­
ment. Urban life as we know it needs many facilities and
services which promote public health, safety, peace,
comfort, convenience, and general welfare. The City is
responsible for providing to each property owner and each
citizen the fullest possible array of urban services to meet
these needs. It is further its responsibility to provide these
services at the lowest cost and the highest possible quality.
Urban development cannot take place w ithout major
public facilities and the massive investments required for
their financing, including roads, sewers, and water.

It is considered a right of every property owner to farm
his land or to construct a home on his property. There is,
however, no inherent obligation on the part of govern­
ment to rezone property to a more intense use. Zoning is
used to “ promote and protect the public health, safety,
peace, comfort, convenience, and general welfare.” The
County may refuse to rezone land to multiple, com­
mercial, or industrial uses if it is deemed in the public
interest. Therefore, it is possible that in designated areas
the Board may adopt a policy of not rezoning land to
urban uses. In this case, there is no damage to an
individual property owner since no right is being taken
from the owner.
It is clear that the County is now assuming broader
responsibility to the property owners and citizens of the
entire County, including those w ithin cities. This respon­
sibility is to provide countywide services such as regional
parks, transit facilities, expressways, health services, social
services, tax assessment, etc. The County must continue
to provide property-oriented services in non-urban areas;
however, if a city takes the responsibility to provide the
appropriate urban services in urban areas, then it is in the
best interest of all citizens that this be done.

TO

PROPERTY

OWNERS

The timing, location, and construction o f these public
facilities should be programmed so that designated areas
are created in which urbanization can take place and a
high level o f service can be secured. Public investment
decisions will also promote an orderly government struc­
ture in which the citizens can effectively work together
for community policy. Public facilities shape the physical,
social, and economic form of the city. The ability to
extend or refuse to extend utilities or services is a proper
tool to use in guiding urban development.
The City should encourage annexation of lands mostly
surrounded by the City. Based on its General Plan, San
Jose should clearly define urban development areas and
prepare a program o f extending services to these areas on
a staged basis. The staging should be related to population
growth and land development trends. These areas should
be considered for prezoning with public hearings held to
determine the intended zoning classifications once the




Sanitation Districts 2 and 3 without jeopardizing the interests
of the citizens w ithin these districts by continuing to provide
service to unincorporated property that is already developed
and connected to the sewers. However, any new urban uses
that need sewers should be required to annex to the City so
that all necessary urban services may be provided at the same
time. San Jose should conduct a study, an^l initiate discus­
sions with Districts 2 and 3, to determine the means of
assuming the responsibility for providing sewer service in
these areas.

land is annexed. The hearings will give the citizens within
these unincorporated areas the opportunity to participate
in planning the future development of their land.
Therefore, the City should become responsible for pro­
gramming development to incorporated areas and to
unincorporated areas that will be urbanized and are within
the immediate sphere o f influence o f the City.
4. CITY-COUNTY RESPONSIBILITY
Assuming the City designates urban development areas
and prezones, the Board of Supervisors may then adopt a
policy of not rezoning these areas to urban uses, or may
even rezone some areas to a holding zone which would
permit all existing uses but would not allow urban
subdivisions or more intense urban uses. The Board might
encourage owners of clearly non urban land to apply the
provisions of the Williamson Bill to prevent premature
urbanization.

III.

STEPS RECOMMENDED TO CARRY OUT STAFF
RECOMMENDATIONS
A.
B.
C.

SANITATION DISTRICTS
In the past, Sanitation Districts 2 and 3 were formed to meet
a pressing need. Residents did not wish to annex and San
jose did not have an aggressive annexation policy. This
situation has now changed. San Jose has annexed much of
the land within these districts and the districts are well within
the sphere of influence of San Jose. While, at one time,
people were content just with sewers, they now expect a
wider array of urban services. Furthermore, the rest of the
San Jose urban community has a stake in maintaining a high
level of service throughout the urban area.
The responsibility for providing sewer service to the residents
of the east San Jose area should be shifted entirely to San
Jose. It is possible for San Jose to assume the functions of

The County adopt policy recommendations 1 and 3.
The City of San Jose adopt policy recommendations 2
and 4.
Under the auspices o f the Local Agency Formation
Commission (LAFCO), the City of San Jose conduct a
study, and initiate discussions with Sanitation Districts
2 and 3, to determine the means of assuming the
responsibility for providing sewer service in these areas

D.

The City o f San Jose define urban development areas in
cooperation with the County.

E.

The City o f San Jose prezone these urban development
areas and request appropriate zoning action from the
County.

F.

The County adopt appropriate policy and zoning
designations for the designated urban development
areas.

Adopted unanimously by the Joint City-County Planning Com­
mittee, October 30, 1969.




151

WN-7657-NSF
October 1971

ALTERNATIVE GROWTH STRATEGIES FOR SAN JOSE:
INITIAL REPORT OF THE RAND URBAN POLICY ANALYSIS PROJECT
Rand Urban Policy Analysis Group

A WORKING NOTE
prepared for the

NATIONAL SCIENCE FOUNDATION




Thi s N o t e was p r e p a r e d t o f a c i l i t a t e
co m m u n i c a ti o n o f p r e l i m in a r y research
results. Views o r conclusions expressed
h ere in may be te n ta tiv e and do n ot
r e p r e s e n t t h e o f f i c i a l o p i n i o n o f the
s p o n s o r i n g a ge n cy .

Rand
SANTA M O N IC A. CA 9040b

152
iii

PREFACE A D SU M R
N
M AY
The objective of the Rand Urban Policy Program is to provide
assistance in the design and choice of policy options to makers of
urban policy at a l l le v e ls from Federal to lo c a l.
piece to th is paper, Rand Urban P o lic y 'Program:

The companion
S tra te g y f o r S e le c t io n

o f C i t i e s and F ir s t-Y e a r Plan>* discusses our strategy for providing
assistance in designing "national urban p o lic y ."

This paper reports

on the i n i t i a l phase of our f i r s t sp ecific lo cal analysis — that
of growth in San Jose and i t s metropolitan area, Santa Clara County.
Our immediate lo cal aims for the year’ s study we have begun are
to provide several kinds of assistance to lo cal policymakers:
1. Arguments to use both with higher ju risd ictio n s and with
lo cal constituencies.

Our i n i t i a l analysis of San Jose has

indicated that Federal and state p o lic ies constrain lo cal options
su b sta n tia lly , and that these constraints are frequently inad­
vertent.

With lo cal constituencies, o f f i c i a l s need data that

show the d iffic u lt y of certain simple and one-sided solutions.
2. The other side of the relationship between o ffi c i a ls
and constituencies is that o ffi c i a ls have need for the kind of
analyses of lo c a l view s that we expect to provide.
3. W are a ssistin g local policymakers in designing and
e
understanding o th e r -p a r a llel a n a ly tic a l programs.
4. W are helping to develop a n a ly tic a l t o o l s that local
e
planners may use for ongoing operational purposes.
5. Most important, we are examining s p e c i f i c p o l i c y o p t io n s .
The above l i s t places the most important type of assistance la st
because our analytical methodology begins with careful id e n tific a tio n ,
structuring, and analysis of problem s as a preliminary to analyzing the
e ffe c ts of p o l i c i e s on these problems.

’k

Because this paper reports on

Rand Corporation Working Note Number 7658-NSF, October, 1971.




153

f i r s t third of the year's program, the sp e c ific policy analysis is at
an early stage.
Nonetheless, the problem analysis we have done has led to several
policy hypotheses.

The most important have to do with the remarkably

small space for policy decision l e f t to local o ffi c i a ls by the

con­

strain ts and pressures stemming from Federal and state actions.
Indeed, the explosive growth of San Jose and Santa Clara County
is in large measure a direct e ffe c t of Federal m ilitary procurement
policy which over two decades has b u ilt up the aerospace and electronics
industry upon which the lo cal economy is based.
has

And this type of growth

in turn led to the area's central dilemma — economic dependence

upon rapid growth of a sort which seems to be degrading the "qu a lity of
life * 1 in San Jose and Santa Clara County.

To examine this dilemma,

we have modelled and tested s t a t is t ic a lly two alternative a p r i o r i
hypotheses about growth.

One is that private and public well-being in

Santa Clara County depends only on a high, s t a b le level of economic
a c tiv ity .

The other is that such well-being depends upon a rapid rate

of economic grow th.

The second hypothesis better f i t s the data.

Using models developed for the analysis, we estimate that, starting
frt»m unemployment at the 1970 le v e l:
A 5 percent a year growth rate for ten years w ill leave
the County in a slig h tly worse economic situation than at the
beginning.
I f the rate of growth starts at 5 percent and declines
to 2 percent, the unemployment rate w ill rise to 9 - 15 percent,
depending on other assumptions.
Under the assumption that there will be a long term decline
in high technology production (certainly a strong possibility for
aerospace) unemployment will rise to near 20 percent.
If growth is necessary to provide a moderately high level of
economic w ell-being, what about the costs of such growth and how do
the residents of the County view these costs?

A County Transportation

Planning Study survey found that residents had a strong interest in pre­
serving the beauty of their environment and in increasing the quiet,




154

privacy, and spaciousness of their surroundings.

Further, these

views were n ot limited to a minority of upper m iddle-class whites
as is sometimes asserted.
Growth thus presents a dilemma to the City and the County as a
whole; i t also presents problems to the individual residents and to
groups of residents.

One

i n i t i a l finding in this area has been that

the ordinary id e n tific a tio n of "s o c ia l problems1 with problems of the
'
low-income population is not en tirely correct for San Jose.

At least

one such problem — crime — seems from a preliminary analysis to be
as much a problem of the middle class as of the poorer groups and
areas.
Many of the so cia l problems, of course, are associated with low
income.

Using a clustering technique based on ch aracteristics derived

from a principal components analysis, Census tracts were divided into
six clu sters:

lowest-income areas; low-income small-household areas;

large household working class neighborhoods; b e tte r -o ff small household
areas; upper middle c la s s ; and affluent neighborhoods.

This structuring

has enabled us to begin examining both the current status of problems
and their change from 1960 to 1966 to 1970, the three years for which
data are available.

Th6 most striking finding is that the rapid

economic and demographic growth of Santa Clara County as a whole has
had remarkably l i t t l e e ffe c t on the lowest-income tra c ts.
appear to be true backwaters.

They

These tracts have the largest concentration

of Mexican-Americans (the major Santa Clara County m inority), and the
concentration is increasing over time.

Thus, residen tial segregation

in the County is increasing.
Specific analysis has also begun in the so cia l areas of housing
(which needs h elp ), health (in which, in te re stin g ly, the c r it ic a l
areas were n o t the worst o ff by the infant mortality index used), and
education (where we have begun to examine segregation and w ill do more
when 1970 Census data on Mexican-American population becomes a v a ila b le ).
Growth is based in large measure on Federal action; the dilemmas
and problems of growth stem from the fa ilu re of lo cal authorities to cope




155

with such manifestations of growth as uncontrolled building and speculation
leading to urban sprawl.
here too.

But Federal policy has played a major role

Theoretically, City and County authorities could have resisted

the pressures to annex, to rezone, and to do a ll the other things that
permitted the sprawl.

P o litic a lly , however, the speculative pressures

were so great as to be v ir tu a lly uncontrollable.

And a major reason

for such pressures has been the incentive to real estate speculation coming
from the break given to such speculation on the Federal income tax.
W have estimated, for example, that the money flowing to Santa Clara
e
County in one year from ju st one of a number of tax advantages —
capital gains treatment of speculative gains — is greater than the total
expenditure in the County of the Department of Housing and Urban
Development in the same year.
This is an example of the effe c ts of existing "national urban
p o lic y " and, lik e much of this p o licy, i t s urban effe c ts are unintended.
Yet such Federal pressures and constraints (and other sorts of constraints
from the State of California) may have more e ffe c t on local outcomes than
can any policy made at the local le v e l.

This is why the "arguments"

we present for local o f f i c i a l s to use in trying the change these pressures
and constraints may be as useful to them as our analysis of the policy
options that are open to them.
Nonetheless, there are policy options open below the Federal le v e l,
and we have begun to examine them.

Most of the more promising p o s s ib ilitie s

involve a combination of permissive action by the State and implementation
by the City or County.

For example, Santa Clara County’ s a b ility to cope

with problems has been lessened by ju risd ic tio n a l Balkanization and
competitive annexation; the creation under State law of a Local Agency
Formation Commission (LAFCO) has helped avoid new competition, but has
not helped meliorate the e ffe c ts of the past.

Sim ilarly, the Williamson

Act, a State attempt to help overcome the problem of agricultural land
forced into urbanization by being taxed at urban rates, has been used
by San Jose but has not yet been rea lly e ffe c tiv e .

Indeed, perhaps the

most e ffe c tiv e agent for change w ill be a recent decision by the California
Supreme Court which may force the State government to supplement or even
supplant out of State general revenues, expenditures on education




156

that have u n til now been supported by the local property tax.

I f the

incentive steming from local desires for more property tax revenues is
removed, the changes wrought may be greater than those possible from any
set of rules or administrative devices.
It may well be, in any case, that new tax revenue brought in by
new growth is su bstantially exceeded by the long run public costs of this
new growth.

This is something that has been suspected for some time by

San Jose City o ffic ia ls ', i t seems to be confirmed in general by some of
our growth modelling.

An important part of our program of policy analysis

w ill be to estimate d irectly the revenue and public cost e ffe c ts of new
development of differen t types, using the cluster analysis discussed
above as a b asis.
Growth is lik e ly to continue in San Jose and Santa Clara County,
a lb eit at a slower rate than that of the la st twenty years.

By building

baseline projections of this growth and the problems i t causes, we are
able to begin testin g the e ffe c ts of alternative policy options at
Federal, State, and lo cal le v e ls , for avoiding the problems, solving
them, or meliorating their e ffe c ts .

In addition, we can use San Jose

as an i n i t i a l sample point for generalizations bearing on "national urban
p o lic y " of differen t types.

This process of generalization is discussed

more fu lly in Rand Urban P o lic y Program:

S tra te g y f o r S e le c t io n o f

C i t i e s and F ir s t -Y e a r Plan.
But even within the confines of Santa Clara County, hypotheses
are beginning to emerge for testing as national statements.

The e ffe c ts

of growth induced by m ilitary procurement and the importance of Federal
tax p o lic ies are becoming clear for the local area; they must be
tested elsewhere before valid generalizations can be drawn.

And, beyond

immediate policy issu es, San Jose and Santa Clara County are beginning
to appear as prototypes of a major national dilemma of the future.
The lo cal dilemma of economic dependence on growth, as against the effe c ts
of growth in causing sprawl, is in a sense a microcosm of the recently
recognized national dilemma of economy versus ecology.

This is a theme

we w ill undoubtedly be pursuing in our urban analyses across the country.




157
ix
CON
TENTS

PREFACE AN SUM ARY.................................................
D
M

Section
I.
INTRODUCTION .............................................................................................
TH PARAD
E
OX O G O T ...........................................................................
F R WH
Santa Clara's Economic Dependence O Growth ......................
n
Hypotheses ...........................................................................................
A S t a tis t ic a l Model .......................................................................
The E ffects of Growth: "Urban Sprawl" And The
Texture of Life ...........................................................................
Geographic Spread ...........................................................................
Attitudes Toward Growth ..............................................................
Benefits And Costs of Growth .............................*........................

25
25
26
36

III.

SOCIAL P O
R BLEM .........................................................................................
S
The Population ......................................................................................
Housing ......................................................................................................
Health ........................................................................................................
Education ..................................................................................................
Crime ..................................................... ....................................................
Further Research On Social Problems ........................................

37
37
51
53
56
58
61

IV.

POLICY IMPLICATIONS ................................................................................
Levels And Types of Policy Assistance ....................................
Policy Hypotheses ................................................................................
The Lack of Policy Space for Local
Decision-Makers ........... ...............................................................
National P olicies ...........................................................................
State and Local Policy ................................................................

66
66
69

CONCLUSIONS .................................................................................................

100

Appendix
A. PRINCIPAL C M O E TS ANALYSIS TO OBTAIN CEN S
O P NN
SU
TRACT CLUSTERS ..................................................................................

102

II.

V.


81-745 O http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/72 - pt. 1 --1 1
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

7
7
7
11

69
72
86

158

I.

INTRODUCTION

On the f i r s t v i s i t of the Rand Urban Policy Analysis team to San
Jose, shortly a fter the July 1 in itia tio n of NSF Planning Grant GI-29763,
a number of us attended a civic luncheon at which Mayor Norman Mineta
presented his State of the City address.

Before the speech began, a

Rand analyst asked a gentleman sittin g across the table from him, "What
do you think San Jose and Santa Clara County’ s major problem i s ? "
The reply went something lik e th is :
ing us.
State.

" I t ’ s growth.

Growth is k i l l ­

This v alley used to be one of the most beautiful areas in the
Now i t ’ s hardly worth livin g in .

W have got to stop the growth
e

here or at least slow i t down."
"T h at's in terestin g .

Incidentally, what business are you in ?"

asked the Rand analyst.
"Construction’ "
.
This b rief dialogue encapsulates the dilemma of San Jose, and Santa
Clara County, in which i t is the major c it y .

*

When City Manager Thomas

Fletcher asked us to carry out an analysis to a ssist him in designing
p o lic ies to guide growth in San Jose, we knew that both the economy and
the population of San Jose had been growing explosively for two decades
and we assumed that the problems and policy needs consequent upon growth
were well worth analytical in vestigation.

W laid out a research strategy
e

that was an application to San Jose of our general method of making base­
line projections of where the area is going under current p o lic ie s to be
able to estimate the d iffe re n tia l e ffe c ts of possible new p o lic ie s .

**

Although this project was set up i n i t i a l ly at the request of San
Jose c ity o f f i c i a l s , i t was recognized from the beginning that San Jose’ s
growth had to be considered within the context of Santa Clara County,
which constitutes the entire San Jose Standard Metropolitan S ta tis tic a l
Area. Fortunately, both San Jose and Santa Clara County o ffi c i a ls are
highly professional and are in large measure devoted to common goals.
This enables us to consider the growth problem as a whole and to work
c lo sely with both sets of o f f i c i a l s .

**

For more d e ta il on this general research strategy and i t s applica­
tion to San Jose, see Rand's proposal for the Planning Grant under which




159
-2 -

To say that growth i s a problem of San Jose and Santa Clara, however,
is not to say why i t is a problem.

Growth in i t s e l f is a rela tiv e ly

neutral phenomenon insofar as personal and so cia l well-being are con­
cerned.

In some ways and in some cases, growth adds to w ell-being; in

other ways and cases, i t detracts.

Economic growth, for example, adds to

the resources available to people, but in doing so, i t uses up other re­
sources.

And in an area like San Jose, economic growth may a ttract more

people, needing and using more resources.
This duality — these two aspects of growth — seemed cen tral, but
their in terrelation was d if fic u lt to pin down.

When we asked why they

were concerned about growth, City Manager Fletcher and his top s t a ff
answered that growth had been a way of l i f e in San Jose for so long that
i t affected everything they did, every decision they made, every service
provided by the c ity , every tax taken in.

But they did not, even when

pressed, point to any sp e c ific social or physical problem caused by or
related to growth.

I t became clear that these public o ffi c i a ls

wanted us to help them identify and define a set of issues they knew
existed but could not put their finger on, at least as much as they
wanted assistance in solving w ell-defined problems.
The i n i t i a l issue for an analysis of growth in San Jose and Santa
Clara, therefore, must be formulated as a set of questions:

Should the

o ffi c i a ls and citizen s of the area be worried about growth, and i f so,
why?

What positive and negative effe c ts has growth had, and w ill i t

have, upon the well-being of the population?

What p o lic ies can promote

the positive and minimize the negative effects?
The general hypothesis with which we began is that responsible
local o ffic ia ls should in fact be worried about growth; our objective
is to confirm or deny this hypothesis, d e ta il i t , give i t quantitative
expression, and lay out the policy consequences.

What particular

the current work is being carried out, dated 16 April 1971, particularly
pages 3 to 7; and the current proposal of which this preliminary report
on the planning grant is a part, dated 6 July 1971, particularly pages
4 to 16.




160
-3 -

aspects of growth should be of concern?

What degrees of growth are

lik e ly to bring about what sp e cific e ffe c ts?

Beneath the general

hypothesis,our preliminary examination of San Jose — based both on dis­
cussions with public o f f i c i a l s and others, and on data analysis — has
led us to concentrate i n i t i a l ly on two problem areas that may ju s t ify
the concern and c a ll for new p o lic ie s .
The f i r s t i s the issue illu stra te d by the anecdote with which this
report began.

The fe e lin g , on the one hand, that the area is heavily

dependent economically on growth but, on the other hand, that both the
economic and the population growth that has taken place may have lowered
the "qu ality of l i f e ” and that further growth might lower i t more, seems
to be the basic paradox behind City Manager Fletcher's concern and that
of others.

What bothers them is the im plicit b e lie f that they desper-

a tely need growth but are at the same time choking on i t .

*

Our ana­

l y t ic a l task is both to evaluate the horns of this dilemma (and the work
to date has begun to confirm that Santa Clara has in fact both depended
on growth and been hurt by i t ) , and to make sure that i t is a dilemma,
in the eyes of the residents of the area.

Is the citizen ry re a lly con­

cerned with "sprawl" and i t s concomitants, or is this an issue only for
public o f f i c i a l s , environmentalists, and those citize n s who are p u b licspirited enough to attend civic luncheons, lik e the construction m of
an
the i n i t i a l anecdote?

Our analysis is beginning to indicate that con­

cern with such issues is broadly based, but this is by no means conclu­
sive and needs further confirmation.
The other fundamental set of issues concerns the complex e ffe c ts
growth may have on so cia l problems in San Jose.

The phrase "s o c ia l

problems" is sometimes used as a shorthand for problems of m inorities
and the poor.

In San Jose this is p a rtia lly the case, and one focus of

The fear is exacerbated by the fact that recent growth i s well
below expectations. The Census Bureau reports the 1970 population of
Santa Clara County to be 1,0 65,0 00 .
This is below the "Extreme Low"
forecast of 1,072,000 for 1970 population made by the County Planning
Department in 1968.




161
_4_

our investigation w ill be poor housing and other problems of the mostly
Mexican-American minority group and other poor.

Our i n i t i a l finding is

that i f the explosive growth of the la st two decades has affected

this

portion of the population at a l l — which i t hasn't very much — i t has
been to hurt them.
These formulations of the two central issues — the benefits and
costs of growth, and the e ffe c ts of growth on social problems — d iffe r
substantially from what has become something of a standard formula for
analysis and discussion of San Jose and Santa Clara County.

Because

San Jose in particular has been perceived as the prototypical example
of "Urban Sprawl" — geographical spread without rhyme or reason, without
concern for open space, aesth etics, environment, pollution , sense of
community, or even crowding of individuals is an overall pattern of
jumbled spread — much of the previous analysis of the area has examined
closely the proximate factors associated with the geographical pattern
of settlem ent.

Particular attention has been paid to the zoning and

annexation p o lic ies of the City of San Jose.

*

The City of San Jose did, in fa c t, grow from 17 square miles in
1950 to 137 square miles in 1970, and i f a c i t y ’ s sprawl can be defined,
certainly this e ig h t-fo ld growth comes close to the d e fin itio n .

As the

c i t y 's area has increased by annexation, the newly annexed areas have
f i l le d with housing tracts and people, as have other parts of Santa
Clara County.

Nonetheless, our preliminary examination has con­

vinced us - - not that the class of p o licies exemplified by annexation and
zoning are unimportant — i f there are solutions to the paradoxes of
growth, many of them are lik e ly to li e here — but that analysis of
these p o licies lo g ic a lly fo llo w s examination of the causes and e ffe c ts
of growth i t s e l f .

Growth — economic growth f i r s t , followed by popula­

tion growth — has forced rapid change in Santa Clara County.

&

"Sprawl"

See, for example, Stanford Environmental Law Society, San J o s e :
Spraw ling C ity > March 1961, and the Nader Report on C alifornia, with
Robert Fellmeth as Project Director, Power and Land in C a lifo r n ia s in
which Chapter VI, "The Urban-Suburban Complex" is devoted primarily to
Santa Clara County.




162
-5 -

has been a consequence of th is growth, and a consequence that might have
been avoided in some measure, at le a s t.

But after two decades of such

growth, Santa Clara could not possibly have resembled the land of orchards
and vineyards i t was in 1950.
This difference of approach has important implications both for
understanding past policy and affectin g future p o licy.

The rapid econ­

omic and demographic expansion of the past has been due largely to
factors not under the control of lo c a l decisionmakers — factors lik e
national m ilitary procurement p o lic ie s , and federal tax p o lic ie s.

Local

p o lic ies of the two decades have provided far le ss than optimal adapta­
tion to this growth; y et, to treat local decisionmakers as i f they could
have held the borders of Santa Clara against industry and people misses
the point.

Sim ilarly, future options for lo c a l policy must be evaluated

in terms of the pressures that w ill e x is t.

And since these pressures

w ill stem in part from national and state p o lic ie s , a f u l l policy anal­
y s is w ill have to evaluate these p o licies in terms of their lo cal e ffe c ts ,
suggesting

options at these levels as w e ll.

The next section of th is report discusses the paradox of growth —
the dilemma of San Jose and Santa Clara’ s economic dependence upon con­
tinued rapid growth, and the costs of th is growth in terms of the
"q u a lity " of l i f e .

Looking f i r s t at the economics, certain hypotheses

are structured, tested by use of s t a t is t ic a l models, and their implica­
tions discussed.

The geographic spread of that growth is then taken up,

and i n i t i a l analysis of c itize n attitudes toward "sprawl" and other
aspects of quality of l i f e is described.

The ultimate objective is to

present the broad benefits and the costs of d ifferen t rates and types
of growth, as a guide to evaluating policy options for controlling this
growth.
Section I I I considers the areafs so cia l problems and their relation
to growth.

Santa Clara County census tracts are divided into six clu s­

te r s, according to their socio-economic structure.

Looking primarily

at the worst o ff c lu ster, the analysis describes s t a t is t ic a lly the cur­
rent and recent nature of the problems in housing, education, and health,




163
-6and investigates some aspects of change for three years in which some
(not completely commensurable) data are available — 1960, 1966, and
1970.

In addition to the problems of low-income residents, this section

discusses the incidence of crime, a so cia l problem which, in San Jose at
le a st, is not particularly associated with poverty.
Section IV begins analysis of the policy implications of the prob­
lems w have id en tified and structured.
e

Basic to our analytical method

is detailed problem analysis as a basis for evaluation of alternative
policy options.

For that reason, this report on the f i r s t four months

of the year’ s study s t i l l has le ss to say about p o licies than about prob­
lem areas.

Nonetheless, some important implications for policy have

been generated as hypotheses from the early analysis, and these are
delineated here.
Section V contains some b rief general conclusions.




164
-7 -

II.

TH PARADOX O G O T
E
F R WH

SANTA CLARA'S ECO O IC D
N M
EPEN EN
D CE O G O T
N R WH

Hypotheses
Our primary hypothesis is that, on the one side, private and nublie econo
mic well-being in Santa Clara County depend not merely upon a high and
stable le v e l of economic a c tiv ity , but upon a rapid rate of economic
growth as such; on the other side, such rapid growth degrades the gen­
eral well-being by lowering the "q u a lity " of living in a number of ways
imperfectly subsumed in the phrase "Urban Sprawl."
Looking f i r s t at the p o s s ib ility of the economic dependence of
Santa Clara on growth as such, the in itia l attempts have been to
define both private and public economic w ell-being.

As a f i r s t cut, we

have defined private well-being in terms of su ffic ie n t jobs to support
the population of the County; public well-being is defined as the a b ility
of public ju risd ictio n s to support adequate levels and mixtures of
public services without "in to le ra b le " tax rate increases.
nitions are s t i l l general.

(These d e fi­

The variables used in our f i r s t cut are

precisely defined in the models set forth and estimated below.)
The alternative to our hypothesis that the growth paradox exists
in a strong fashion is that these two types of well-being have in the
past been, and w ill in the future be, supported by high but rela tiv e ly
stable levels of economic a c tiv ity .

O the private side, this would
n

imply that a gradual increase in economic a ctiv ity (at a rate no faster
than the national average, for example) would make possible the contin­
uation of high income levels and low levels of unemployment.

O the
n

public side i t would mean that the high average level of family income
that ex ists in Santa Clara County i s su ffic ie n t to provide the tax
revenues to support the public service demands of this high-income
population.

Were these two hypothetical statements true, the lik e ly

policy implication would be that Santa Clara and San Jose should exert
every influence to stop further economic growth or slow i t down dras­
t ic a lly — because, as the construction m
an in the opening anecdote




165
-8 -

said, the urban sprawl induced by growth is unarguably degrading the
beauty and the amenities of this once lovely County of orchards.
Our fear, however, (and more important than the fact that i t is our
fear is that im p licitly i t is the fear that makes Santa Clarans worry
about the cessation of growth without quite being sure why) is that the
above-hypothesized dependence of economic well-being upon stab le, high
levels of economic a ctiv ity and income is simply not the case.

A less

attractive hypothesis, then, would be that the area has in the past
depended upon i t s rapid growth rate; i f growth were to cease or to slow
down sharply, well-being would not merely level o f f , but in a number of
important and measurable dimensions would drop very sharply.
S ta tis tic a l modeling and testing of the two alternative hypotheses —
stable prosperity and growth dependence — seems to indicate that the
growth dependence hypothesis better f i t s the data.

Before describing

the models and discussing their im plications, however, i t is useful to
d eta il the growth dependence hypothesis in narrative terms.

The hypo­

thesis can be broken down into four parts:
1.

The maintenance of even a steady number of jobs in San Jose and

Santa Clara County depends not merely upon a steady level of productive
economic a c tiv ity , but upon a rapidly increasing level of production.
Nationally, technological progress has meant that the same number of
workers have produced increasing output year after year; although the
data are imperfect, the same is clearly true in the highly technological
industries which form the economic base of Santa Clara County.

In

Santa Clara's future, as in i t s past, therefore, i t may take a r e la tiv ely
rapidly increasing level of production to support even a steady number
of jobs — running increasingly faster to stay in the same place.
2.

In addition, the hypothesis postulates that population growth

of Santa Clara County and San Jose is a consequence of the growth in
employment, but only with time lags that mean even a sta b iliza tio n of
the number of jobs (under the continued production growth condition pos­
tulated in (1) above) would cease attracting people to the County only
a fter a while, so that with available jobs sta b ilized , numbers of job




166
-9 -

seekers would continue to increase, leading to unemployment and d istre ss.
The s t a t i s t i c a l analysis discussed in d e ta il below bears this out with
particular reference to jobs in aerospace and other high-technology indus­
t r ie s .

Furthermore, while there is some evidence that in the earlier

aerospace mini-recession of 1964 to 1965, the job/population attraction
relationship was reversib le, since Santa Clara’ s engineers and technolo­
g ists could find jobs in other parts of the state or country, the current
general downturn in this industry apparently means that the relationship
i s now less reversible — the job-seeking population is not moving out
of the County.
3.

O the ’’public w ell-being'1 side, the growth-dependence hypothe­
n

s is would suggest that the a b ility of local ju risdiction s to support
sa tisfa cto ry services without major tax increases is also dependent upon
growth rather than stable prosperity.

To support the expanding services

called for by an expanding and increasingly demanding population without
major tax rate increases, the tax base must expand commensurately with
the service demand.

The local tax base in California consists primarily

o f the assessed property valuation, upon which property taxes are levied,
and r e ta il sales from which the local (and also the state) portion of
the r e ta il sales tax is drawn.

I t is possible (and would f i t within the

alternative stable-economy hypothesis) that these tax bases grow as fast
as, and in roughly the same time pattern as, the demand for services.
Were th is true, the economy would s t a b iliz e , and stable services could
be supported out of stable revenues at stable tax rates.

The growth-

dependence hypothesis outlined here, suggests that the growth of tax
base consequent upon any industrial or population expansion (particularly
the former) comes ea rlier in time than the growth of service demands
induced primarily by the increasing population.

Were this the case (and

A Survey of Santa Clara County residents, taken in 1965 (reported
in Santa Clara County's comprehensive transportation and land planning
study, Environm ental A ttitu d e s Study: Summary o f F in dings3 May 1967),
showed more than two-thirds of the respondents reporting business and
job opportunities as a very important reason for their moving to the
County, and over half making i t the primary reason. Unfortunately, no
information was gathered that might throw ligh t on any time lag between
perceived opportunity and actual move.




167
-1 0 -

i t seems to be borne out by our s t a t is t ic a l a n a ly sis), each growth incre­
ment would produce a new tax base early and new costs only la te r, with
the cost being dependent for financing upon the n e x t increment of growth/
In other words, by this hypothesis, Santa Clara and San Jose have been
mortgaging their future — the fa ilu re to rea lize the next increment
would mean a necessary substantial rise in tax r a te s to support the ser­
vice demands consequent on the la st increment.

A cessation or slowdown

of growth could mean that the mortgage could come due, necessitating sub­
sta n tia l tax rate increases to support continuing high levels of public
services.
4.

This, too, is i n i t i a l ly supported by our s t a t i s t i c a l analysis.
The fin a l step in the growth-dependence hypothesis suggests that

this dependence might even be greater than is postulated by the above
steps relatin g population variables to economic variables on a lagged
basis.

It seems obvious that the b e lie f so strongly held over the past

decades in continued growth has led to speculation in land and construc­
tion .

A cessation or severe slowdown of growth, then, could lead to a

failu re to rea lize speculative expectations — fa ilu re to f i l l the tract
houses, s e l l the land at a p r o fit, generate su ffic ie n t r e t a il sales in
the new shopping centers, etc . — and thus lead to exacerbation of the
other negative consequences of an end to growth.

W are suggesting that
e

not only may much of the job structure and public revenue structure of
the area have been dependent upon the v e a l variables of growth, but the
structure may have been additionally dependent upon speculators’ b e lie f
in this growth.

An end to growth could collapse both together.

The

data abundantly bear out the fact of land speculation as a major phenomenom in Santa Clara County, but we have not yet included this in our
functional models.

One counterargument to this i s that new population produces new,
expensive demands for public capital goods ( e .g ., schools) immediately
on a rr iv a l. In terms of real resource expenditures, this is quite pos­
sib ly true, but in the terms of public money expenditures, which are
the issue here, one-time costs are spread out by use of bond funds for
cap ita l expenditures.




168
- li-

A S ta tis tic a l Model
The alternative hypotheses were tested

and the growth-dependence

hypothesis chosen over the stable prosperity hypothesis, by testing
alternative models — sets of econometric equations representing func­
tional relationships among the relevant variables.

The models examined

were structured as quantified specification s of the two alternative
hypotheses presented verbally in the four steps laid out immediately
above.

(It is important to point this out, because econometric explora­

tions are sometimes carried out by using the power of modem computers
to correlate everything with everything, and seeing "what works."
was not our procedure.)

This

Using ordinary le ast squares regression (with

a few exceptions noted), each functional equation was estimated and
tested with various lags of the type that are postulated by the growthdependence hypothesis and, a lte rn a tiv ely, without la gs, as is implied
by the stable prosperity hypothesis.

Because both preliminary analysis

and our ow preconceptions favored growth dependence, assumptions were
n
made wherever possible to favor s t a b ilit y .

The fin a l choices of equa­

tion s, which f i t the growth-dependence hypothesis with few exceptions,
were based on standard s t a t is t ic a l c r ite r ia — £-tests for parameters,
and standard errors of estimate and percent errors for equations.

These

c riteria show the equations and c o e fficie n ts presented below to be sta ­
t is t i c a l ly sign ifica n t throughout.
What we end up with i s not a single model, but a set of alternative
growth-dependence models, with certain of the functional relationships
presented in the form of altern ative equations, to explore the sensi­
t iv ity of the system to certain plausible variations.
quantitative descriptions of structure.

The models provide

In addition to the equations

themselves, we also present some ten-year projections produced by the
models.

These are intended as illu str a tio n s of the policy implications

of the structure being described, not as predictions, unconditional or
conditional.
The variables of the model a l l refer to data from Santa Clara
County, for the years 1949-1970.




They are:

169

M = One year net in-migration (? v thousands of people)
Source:
N

Santa Clara Count}; Planning Department.

= Total Employment in a given year (in thousands of people) .
Source:

California Department of Hum Resources Development.
an

H :5
N 1 Employment

in "High Technology" Industries, defined as

Aerospace Manufacturing (Ordnance + E lectrical Machinery
+ Instruments), plus N on-electrical Machinery, (in thousands
of people) .
Source:

California Department of H an Resources Development.
um

N^ = Employment in Other Export Industries, defined as a ll manuH
facturing not covered in N plus Agriculture plus Federal
Employment (in thousands of people).
Source:

California Department of Hum Resources Development.
an

N^ = Employment in Export Industries (N^ + N^) (in thousands of
people).
Source:

California Department of Hum Resources Development.
an

N^ = Employment in Local Industries — those primarily serving the
lo cal population — defined as a l l employment not included in
N

(in thousands of people).

Source:

California Department of Hum Resources Development.
an

H
VA = Value added in a given year by High-Technology Industries
(in m illions of d o lla r s ).
Source:
P

Estimates based on U.S. Census of Manufactures.

- Population in a given year (in thousands of people).
Source:

Santa Clara County Planning Department.




170
-1 3 -

M = Total Market Value of Property in a given year (in m illions
V
of d o lla r s ).
Source:

Santa Clara County Planning Department.

R = Total Value of R etail Sales in a given year (in m illions of
S
d o lla r s ).
Source:
Y

California Department of Finance.

= Total Personal Income in a given year (in m illions of d o lla r s).
Source:

Santa Clara County Planning Department.

U = Total Unemployment in a given year (in thousands of people)
Source:

California Department of Hum Resources Development.
an

T = a time w e i g h t 1949=1, 1 9 5 0 = 2 ,....
Subscript t refers to time in years.
A = refers to year-to-year changes in the variables.
2
A = refers to change of year-to-year change.
The presence of a strong trend in the period of analysis made any
estimates based on levels of variables unreliable.

(A ll variables

except migration could be s u ffic ie n tly and sig n ific a n tly "explained"
by only their own past v alu es.)

In estimating the model, therefore,

a l l variables were restricted to changes in value, with the exception
of migration, which already approximates the f i r s t differences in popu­
la tio n .
N (Total Employment) is a variable of primary policy in te re st,
particularly in i t s relation to P (Population); the question is whether
there w ill be enough future jobs to support future population in the
sty le to which i t has become accustomed. In certain of the equations,
H
X
N (Employment in High-Technology Industries) is preferred to N , employ­
ment in "Export" industries, a variable with which we worked i n i t i a lly .
Either of these can be considered, exogenous to the system, being deter­
mined primarily by national demand, business location decisions, and




171
-1 4 -

related fa cto rs; the key policy question is whether variations in such
exogenous variables drive Santa Clara’ s economy, and i f so, how.

High

Technology Industry consists of Aerospace (as defined by the California
Department of Hum Resources Development) plus Non-Electrical Machinery,
an
which includes manufacture of Computers; IBM is important in the local
economy, and we believe i t to be more lik e than unlike aerospace.

In

the equations where High Technology Industry was s t a t i s t i c a lly preferred
to Export Industry, N° (Other Export Industry) is treated as a residual;
Employment in Local Industry is endogenous: to the system, depending upon
local population to be served.
H
VA (Value Added in High Technology Industry) is not essen tial to
the functioning of the rest of the system, but is included because the
H H
year-to-year growth in productivity (VA /N ) means that increasing pro­
duction is needed to support a constant level of employment, thus exac­
erbating the County’ s growth problem.

VA^ is estimated not by regression,

but by examination of both lo cal and national data. The year-to-year
H H
growth of VA /N is set at 3 percent, which is conservative (from the
point of view of establishing the growth-dependence hypothesis) since i t
is less than the national increase in productivity.
M (Total Property Value) is the property tax base, the increase of
V
which is the alternative to an increase of tax r a t e s as demand for public
services and their costs increase.

Market Value rather than Assessed

Value was used because the former is a more consistent se r ie s, based on
some version of "tr u e " value, before the assessment policy adjustments
made p erio d ically.

The M series was smoothed by a five-year moving
V

average, because reevaluation of individual parcels of property takes
place on this sort of cycle.
R (Total Value of Retail Sales) is the base for the R etail Sales
S
Tax, part of which reverts to the lo c a lit ie s .
Y

(Total Personal Income) and U (Unemployment) f i t the standard

d e fin itio n s .
The model (with equations ( 1 .1 ) ,

( 1 .2 ) ,

( 1 .3 ) , and (4 .1 ) and (4 .2 ) used as

alternatives for reasons discussed below) is as follow s:




The number in parentheses

172
-1 5 -

below the co e fficie n ts are t-v a lu e s, Su is the standard error of the
estimate, and p .e . i s the mean percentage error with which the equation
predicts the le v e l of the dependent variable in the period of estima­
tio n .

The equations presented without t-v a lu e s, standard errors, and

percentage errors, were not estimated by regression; equations 2, 6, 7,
and 9 are based on rough estimates.
1 .1

M „
t

r
H
.8338 M 1 + .866 A N ,
t_
“
--------“t - i 1 *— “ ‘V i
(9.87)
(2.02)

M = M _ 1 + 1.29 A
t
t

Su = 6 .8
_ 0/ /C/
T
p‘ ’ "
Su = 5 .0
p .e . = 17.9%

(4 .1)
M = 28.327 + .83 A
t

-

(3.14)

.946

Su = 8 .7

(2.05)

p ,e *

31,2%

Pt = 1.013 Pt _ 1 + M

A

= .169 A Pt _ 1 + .002 A
(4 .7 )

(3 .3 )

A M = 9.68 M _> + .949 A Yfc
Vt
t 1
(8,02)
A M = 13.37 A
V
t
(3.32)
A RS

(5.35)
_ + 13.87 M _
.
t -1
t -2
(14.09)

= ,273 A P
(1.77)

+ .344 AY
"

(2 .44 )

Su = 2.5
p .e . = 1.6%

Su = 58.1
p*e * = 1,2%
Su = 79.9
_
1,DJ/o

?,e>

Su = 37.3
P-e ‘ " 4 ' 3%

N = .61 N - NX - N°
H
X
(a)

(VAX/NX) c = 1 . 0 3 (VAX/NX) t _1

(b)

('’Ar / T ‘) t = 1.03 (VAH/NH
‘
)




81-745 O - 72 - pt. 1 --1 2

173
-

AY

= .584 (1.03 (T(Nt )

(T

16 -

1) (N ^ ))

C5.27)

(6.57)

Ut = .426 Pt - (N* +

Equations ( 1 .1 ) ,

+ 11.27 A

Su = 37.06
p .e . = 1.9%

n£)

( 1 .2 ) , and (1 .3 ) are a ltern a tiv es.

The fi r s t two

show Migration this year as a function of Migration the year before and
a lagged rate of change or ra te -o f-r a te of change in High Technology
industry.

Equation ( 1 .2 ) , which uses as the employment variable r a te

o f change of employment change, the difference of the change from two
years ago to la st year, minus the change from three years ago to two
years ago (a second difference, in other words), is s t a t is t ic a lly prefer­
able to the other two, with c o e fficie n ts that are more sign ifica n t and
a lower standard error of estimate for the equation.

Equation (1 .1 ) was

retained because, while i t s form f i t s the growth-dependence hypothesis,
i t is more conservative.

Equation ( 1 .3 ) , while i t is s t a t is t ic a lly the

least relia b le of the three was retained to give the stable prosperity
hypothesis a greater chance.

This equation brings in unemployment as

well as employment and "encourages" unemployed workers to emigrate rela ­
tiv e ly rapidly, thus lowering the within-Santa Clara County negative
effe c ts of economic decline.
The substantive interpretation of equations (1 .1 ) and (1 .2 ) is that
Migration depends on (a) la st year's Migration, a relationship which
is lik e ly to be based upon both a tendency of people to follow people,
because of extended family and friendship connections and upon the
increase in lo c a l employment resulting from population increase (Migra­
tion) which induces more Migration (see equation 3) and (b) the change
in employment in those industries lik e Aerospace whose high pay and
glamour a ttract new population to the County.

But adjustment is not

instantaneous, and i t is la st y ear's increase in employment: which attracts
the new population.

It is th is relationship, as much as any other, that

means that Santa Clara is dependent on growth, because the lags imply
that new employment growth is needed to support Population already in
place.

And i t turns out that although the (1 .3) version mutes this




174
-1 7 -

relationship somewhat by assuming more rapid and stronger demographic
response to economic change, the dependence on growth remains, even
under this formulation.
Equation (2) is a near identity showing that Population is the sum
of la s t year’ s Population m ultiplied by a factor of 1.013, which repre­
sents an estimate of recent low (and thus conservative) natural popula­
tion increase, plus new Migration.
Equation (3) shows changes in Local Employment to be a function of
lagged changes in Income, and lagged changes in the Population to be
served by Local Employment.

This is a very important set of lags.

It

indicates that the chain of events set in course by an autonomous
increase in Export Employment can continue to increase Local Employment,
and Population to take the lo c a l job s, for some time a fter Export Employ­
ment s ta b iliz e s or turns down.
Equations (4 .1 ) and (4 .2 ) on change of per capita Market Value of
property (the property tax base) illu s tr a te two alternative concepts of
causation for this change.

Equation (4 .1 ) assumes that market value is

primarily a function of population and income change, with new industrial
a c tiv ity (as represented by export employment) a ffectin g these variables
through equations (1) and (8 ).

Equation (4 .2 ) assumes that new industrial

a c tiv ity directly a ffe c ts the tax base.

Both equations have sim ilar

s t a t i s t i c a l significance and a preference between the two w ill have to
stem from further detailed study of sp e cific year-to-year changes in the
county.

At this point, we present them both, as a ltern atives.

As w ill

be noted below, they have sim ilar im plications, since they both u l t i ­
mately depend on sim ilar lagged cause-effect relation ship s, but (4 .1)
indicates more optimism for future tax base, simply because the more
complicated lag structure works more slowly to reduce the tax base as
growth slows down.
Equation (5) shows change in the Retail Sales tax base to be a
function of contemporaneous change in Population and lagged change in
Income.




175
-

18 -

Equation (6) simply p a r t i txou s
nology and Other.

Employment between High Tech­

For purposes of estimating the equations in which High

Technology Employment is a variable, actual data on employment in the
relevant industries was used.

Export Employment and both of its compo­

nents are exogenous to the system, however, and since we have no way of
predicting the relationship of the two exogenous components to one.
another, we simply used their rela tiv e values for recent years, which
were quite stable at about the levels shown.
Equation (7a) and (7b) build into the model the assumed 3 percent
increase in productivity discussed above.
Equation (8) shows change in personal income as a function of
•changes in employment in the county.

The complex in i t i a l term involving

Export Employment builds into income of employees of these industries a
wage increase based on the same 3 percent productivity increase assumed
in equation (7 a ).
Equation (9) calculates unemployment as a residual, assuming the
same labor force participation rate ( i . e . ,

.426) as in the base year of

1970, and subtracting estimated employment from the labor force thus
estimated.

The question of trends in labor force participation is a

d if fic u lt one that has never been sa tisfa c to r ily resolved conceptually
or s t a t i s t i c a lly for the nation.

I f the actual participation rate were

to be lower in 1980 than is assumed here, (with participation dropping
b eca u se of lack of jobs) the stated unemployment would be less, but the
e ffe c t on private economic well-being in the county might be about the
same as that implied by the unemployment rates estimated here.
The structure of the model, with i t s best estimates of lags includ­
ing one-year la gs, two-year la gs, and lags of lags ( i . e . ,

the second-

derivative r a te -o f-r a te of change relationship) shows that Santa Clara
County adapts only gradually to changes in factors imposed on i t by nonCounty decisions — changes in the exogenous values of the various com­
ponents of Export Employment, and changes in Export Production (Value
Added, which in our formulation is the precise equivalent of Employment
Times P rod u ctivity).




This represents the preliminary confirmation of

176
-1 9 -

the growth'-dependence model.

So long as rapid growth continues, the lags

do not hurt the County, because the new population with i t s need for jobs
and services which has been attracted to the County by la st year’ s eco­
nomic growth (or that of the year before) w ill have i t s needs taken care
of by this year's and next year’ s economic growth.

But i f economic growth

ceases or slows down d r a stic a lly , the lags mean that the population and
the need for jobs and the need for public services keep increasing for a
time, but the new base for supporting them does not m aterialize.
It is possible to illu s tr a te the meaning of the model and project
the economic and demographic consequences of various rates of growth, by
making various numerical assumptions about growth and tracing their flow
through the model for a ten-year time period beginning with 1971.

It

should be emphasized that what follows is in no sense a prediction of what
wiVL happen to Santa Clara County, and is only in a general way a pro­
je c tio n of what might happen, given the assumptions.
For each of the following runs through the model, the i n i t i a l assump­
tions consist of a set of starting values for the v ariab les, taken from
data for years previous to the starting date of the projections, and
assumptions about the rate of change of Value Added in Export Industries
and in High Technology Industries.

The rate of change in Value Added,

then, is the exogenous variable through which alternative growth assump­
tions are expressed.
The structure of the Income equation (8) is important here.

The time-

weighting was constructed in such a way that i t would (a) allow for
changes in the s k i ll and wage levels of Export Employment and (b) d elib ­
erately overstate, in projection , the growth of Personal Income (and,
consequently, the growth of Local Employment, Total Market Value, and
Total Retail Sales).

The e ffe c t on Income of increases in Export Employ­

ment is exaggerated; the e ffe c t of decreases is damped.

Thus the pro­

jection s are made under the set of assumptions most favorable to the
s t a b ility hypothesis.
Table 1 shows resu lts as of 1.980 for four variables of policy in te re st,
of four sets of assumptions about future rates of growth of Value Added
by Hig h Technology and Export industries in Santa Clara County:




5 percent

177
-2 0 annual growth;

3 percent; 2 percent; and a 1 percent annual d eclin e.*

Each set of assumptions has been run six times:

f i r s t for the "F ir st

Difference" model, in which the active independent variable in equation
1.1 is lagged rate of change of High Technology E/niplovment;

second for

the "Second Difference" model in which the active variable in equation
1.2 is lagged r a te -o f-r a te of change of High Technology Employment;
third for the "unemployment" model which allows more rapid demographic
adjustment to changes in economic conditions;

each of these three models

for Migration is run under the two d ifferen t tax base (market value)
equations:

( 4 .1 ) , which shows change in the tax base as a function of

changes in population and income, and ( 4 .2 ) , which shows changes in tax
base as a function of changes in Export Employment and Migration.

The

variation of assumptions provides, in e f fe c t , a se n sitiv ity analysis of
the structure of the growth-dependence model.
The resu lts are striking and are consistent with the growth-depen­
dence hypothesis under almost a ll assumptions tested.

Looking fi r s t at

p r iv a te economic w ell-being, as indicated by the unemployment rate, w
e
started with an assumed 5.7 percent rate for 1971.

(This is actually

substantially lower than the rate for this year w ill be, but we did not
want to bias the resu lts in favor of growth-dependence by starting o ff
with an assumption of high recession-induced unemployment, so we used the
1970 rate of 5.7 percent.)

The projected resu lts for 1980 show that only

under two concurrent assumptions would the estimated unemployment rate be as
low as 7 percent, which is roughly the actual 1971 recession rate.

These

are the assumption of a 5 percent per annum growth rate, implying continu­
ation of rapid growth for Santa Clara; and the equation (1 .3 ) assumption
of out-migration responsive enough to unemployment that i t reacts back
quickly in reducing unemployment.
Equation (1 .3 ) seems to provide s t a t is t ic a lly le ss r e lia b le estimates
than either (1 .1 ) or ( 1 .2 ) , however, and i f out-migration is le ss respon­
sive to the unemployment that is postulated in ( 1 .3 ) , even 5 percent
growth is projected to lead to 10 percent unemployment by 1980.

Where

*Growth of Export industry Value Added has taken place at an annual
rate of about 10 percent in the two decades since 1950. The 1960-1970
decade has been s lig h tly lower; growth of High Technology Value Added has
been s lig h tly higher.




Table 1
ALTERNATIVE PROJECTIONS FOR SANTA CLARA CO N
U TY IN 1980

Assumed Rate of
Growth of Value
Added

Unemployment Rate
(Percent)
Migration Equation

+ 5% per year
Market Value
Equation 4 .1
4 .2

Declining and
levelin g o ff
at + 2% per y r.
Market Value
Equation 4 .1
4 .2
Declining at
- 1% per yr.
Market Value
Equation 4 .1
4 .2




Retail Sales
per Capita
(1970 = 100)
Migration Equation

Net Annual
In-Migration
( 1 00 0 *3 )
Migration Equation

1.2

1.3

1. 1

1.2

1.3

1.1

1.2

1 .3

1. 1

1.2

103
95

1. 1

Declining and
levelin g o ff
at + 3% per yr.
Market Value
Equation 4 .1
4 .2

Market Value of
Property, per Capita
(1970 = 100)
Migration Equation

103
95

103
95

119

118

122

9 .5

11.1

1.3

*<1
00

12

100

13

100
93

100
94

114

112

117

94

99
93

99
93

100
94

112

110

116

91
87

92
87

90
84

98

95

104

2 .9

-1 1 .4

7 .3

-1 0 .2

8.5

-1 5 .6

5 .1

-2 8 .5

179
-2 2 the truth w ill l i e , as among (1.1)>
fic u lt to say.

( 1 .2 ) , and (1 .3 ) i s , of course, d i f­

A ll are estimated from data that did include bad economic

years, but had no long-run downturns.

In the future, i f Santa Clara

County goes into a period of long-run growth no higher than 5 percent,
and i f the rest of the country is prosperous, out-migration might
approach the (1 .3 ) rate.

O the other hand, i t is d if fic u lt to
n

estimate the attachment people have to their homes as compared to
their geographic responsiveness to economic incentives.

(The survey

discussed below w ill attempt to obtain more information on these matters
from a sample of Santa Clara's population.)

In any case, the lag e s t i ­

mates of these models indicates that economic adjustment is not instan­
taneous; long-run high unemployment rates in the past in other urban
areas show this to be true.
I f jobs were scarce in Santa Clara County, i t seems lik e ly that
population would u ltim a te ly adjust; policy must be concerned with the
human hardship and policy problems in the time, period before "u ltim a tely"
comes to pass, and our estimates relate to the length of th is time
period.

Under one set of assumptions, much of the adjustment could take

place by 1980, but i f population is le ss mobile than assumed in ( 1 .3 ) ,
i t could be much longer.

And even (1 .3 ) leads to r ela tiv ely optim istic

conclusions only when coupled with the equally optim istic assumption of
continued r e la tiv e ly rapid growth.

I f economic growth i s at a rate of

only 2 or 3 percent per year, projected unemployment approaches 10 per­
cent even with the out-migration of ( 1 .3 ) ; i t approaches 15 percent under
the lower m obility assumptions of (1 .1 ) and ( 1 .2 ) .

And i f the economy

declines at a 1 percent per year rate, no out-migration assumption pro­
je c ts anything but disastrous unemployment.
At f i r s t look, the resu lts for public economic well-being look some­
what more ambiguous.
tax base.

The measure of well-being here is the per-capita

To the extent that demand for public services depends on size

of population, a stable per-capita tax base w ill necessitate no increase
in tax rates.

It seems lik e ly in the lig h t of history, of course, that

in c r e a s e d services w ill be demanded; th is, plus the extra inflationary




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poten tial associated with public services (with any services, as com­
pared to goods), w ill probably mean some increase in tax rates.

Thus,

i f the per-capita tax base shrinks, a strong additional upward pressure
on tax rates w ill be added, making the public o f f i c i a l 's role extremely
d i f f i c u lt .
At least part of the tax base, however, seems to hold up within our
projection s.

Retail sales per capita, the base for the local share of

the r e t a il sales tax, do hold up under most assumption; unfortunately,
th is tax provides only a small portion of lo cal revenues.
major tax base, Market Value of property
dependent upon assumptions.

Whether the

holds up as w ell, seems heavily

I f , as assumed by equation ( 4 .1 ) , property

value depends upon population, Market Value per capita stays close to
1970 le v e ls , unless the economy actually declines.

This would almost

have to be the case, because population changes are reflected both on
the causal side of the equation and in the computation that puts the
e ffe c ts on a per capita b asis; more people mean more demand for public
services, and almost simultaneously more tax base, under this assumption.
I f the alternative assumption, of direct dependence of Market Value upon
economic a ctiv ity is used, as in equation ( 4 .2 ) , however, Market Value
per capita goes down from 1970 le ve ls even with a 5 percent economic
growth rate.

Which assumption is more plausible w ill have to be d is­

covered from detailed study of the change of value of particular proper­
tie s in Santa Clara County.
I t can be said at this point, however, that even the optim istic pro­
jection may be far le ss optim istic than i t might seem.

Looking simul­

taneously at the Market Value projections and the Unemployment projections,
i t can be seen that what is happening under the optim istic Market Value
assumption is that property values, and therefore property taxes, are
holding up, while the private economic well-being that enables people to
pay property taxes is dropping sharply.

This has been one of the major

conceptual and practical criticism s of the property tax for many years.
I t is not based on a b ility to pay.

The tax base stays up, insofar as i t

does stay up, by divorcing i t s e l f from the incomes of the tax payers.
From a policy standpoint, this sort of outcome cannot be counted as




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highly favorable.

And, again, if the e:?r,omy declines, rather than slow­

ing its growth, no combination of assumptions is favorable to the public
e conomy any more than the private.
These generally pessimistic results of projections using alternative
forms of the m o del are dependent upon lagged reactions of two types.

One

is the lag of p opulation movement in following jobs; the other is the
flywheel effect of local employment responding with a lag to population
increase, thus helping bring about more population increase even as the
autonomous economic base for such increase is on the decline.

Were these

two sorts of lags excluded from the system — were all adjustments instan­
taneous as they would be in the stable prosperity model — the results
w o u l d be economic stability both for public authorities and for the pop u ­
lation in the county at any one time, although the well-being of the people
m o ving in and out to make the adjustments instantaneous would be outside
the realm of the model.

In any case, it is just such instantaneous

adjustment that our model-testing has rejected by its almost uniform
choice of the growth-dependence model over the stability model.
The tests and estimates indicate that without a change in the eco­
n o m i c / d emographic structure xtfhich has characterized San Jose and Santa
Clara County for twenty years, a high rate of growth is necessary for
continued economic w e l l - b e i n g .

Whether such growth will continue depends

in large m e asure on factors beyond local control.

Perhaps high tech­

nology employment in Santa Clara has peaked out; aerospace has peaked
out.

Popu l a t i o n growth has slowed down -- although, consistent with the

growth-dependence model, it has not stopped.

The last line of model

estimates, based on an actual decline of high-technology production of the
current type, end up with unemployment between 13 and 23 percent, and
w i t h the per capita tax base substantially lower than at present.

When

we asked City Man ager Fletcher why San Jose was not in as bad straits as
Seattle, his answer was that that sort of trend was possible, but he still
had time and he intended to use that time to avoid the outcome.

The

results of this analysis provide a quantitative illustration of ho w San
Jose might become Seattle; our analytical team is in San Jore under Mr.
F l e t c h e r fs sponsorship as one of a number of efforts he has under way to
use his time to avoid this sort of outcome.




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There is a billboard near Sea-Tac Airport that reads:
Last Person Leaving S e attle, Please Turn Out the L ig h ts."

"W ill the
In San Jose,

the lig h ts may keep going on; the question is "Who’ s going to pay for
the e le c t r ic ity ? "
In any case, disclaimers should again be inserted.

This i s not a

set of predictions, but rather an analysis of the economic and demo­
graphic structure of Santa Clara; the projections are intended primarily
as illu s tr a tio n s of the implications of the structure as we now under­
stand i t .

Nonetheless, the results are indeed strik in g .

T E EFFECTS O G O TH
H
F R W :

"URBAN SPRAW A D TH TEXTURE O LIFE
L" N
E
F

Geographic Spread
I f the analysis reported above indicates San Jose and Santa C lara's
overall economic dependence on growth, the other side of the coin is the
e ffe c t of such growth on the geographic distribution of industry and
population in the area.

The issue can be summarized a s, "What does the

growth that might r e a lis t ic a lly occur mean for the shape and texture of
the County, including, but not limited to, what has been called "Urban
Sprawl?"

Under current p o lic ies and assumptions, w ill i t mean bulldozing

more orchards and vineyards, thus f i l l i n g in the green spaces that have
added to the amenities of current housing; w ill i t mean high -rise or
townhouse development (a trend which seems to be beginning, but may be
temporary); w ill i t mean expansion of the peripheries of currently urban­
ized areas; w ill i t mean substantial movement from the v alley floo r to
the mountain ranges on either side?

One set of research instruments to

be used w ill be models that disaggregate the projected population and
industry of Santa Clara County geographically, developed by the County
Planning Department and the San Jose IBM f a c i l i t y , and a related set of
models previously developed at Rand by Ira Lowry.

None of these are

perfect — perfect prediction of changing population distribution is
beyond the state of the art and i s lik e ly to remain so — but they are




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usable.

They w ill be used to project the population and in du strial d is­

tribution consequences of various alternative growth and policy assump­
tions — to show the other side of the consequences of growth as brought
out by the economic well-being models described above.
W have not yet run these new alternative sets of assumptions through
e
the model, but Figs. 1 and 2 were adapted from two County maps.

The over-

lay map, based upon the Santa Clara/IBM model, indicates some preliminary
estimates of the geographic distribution of new population growth at a
rate of increase of about 1 .8 percent annually — slig h tly more than the
high growth projections in our model runs above.

The dots show the pro-

jection of where new population growth w ill occur from 1970-1975.

The

bottom m shows 1970 land use in the County, with esse n tia lly "green"
ap
uses — orchards, agricultural land, and private estates — being shown
in green. At f i r s t glance, the overlay seems to show that the new popula­
tion w ill not cut heavily into the green land.

Closer examination, how­

ever, indicates that th is i n i t i a l conclusion is lik e ly to be based upon
the large southern area currently made up of broad agricultural lands and
very r e s tr ic tiv e ly zoned small c i t i e s .

Many of the dots, particu larly

those in the near-south and ea st, which are actually parts of the City of
San Jose, appear in currently green areas.

In other words, the maps imply

that under these assumptions many of the orchards that now make many r e s i­
dential areas a ttractive may be bulldozed in the next fiv e years; tracts
w ill be surrounded by tra c ts.

Attitudes Toward Growth
Modeling geographic spread, however, hardly su ffices to reveal the
problems of narrowly defined Urban Sprawl, le t alone the "te x tu re " of
l i f e in Santa Clara County.

Such modeling, nonetheless, may be a f i r s t step

away from the sloganeering that has dominated much of the discussion of
"growth1 in recent years.
1

"Growth" in the p o lit ic a l dialogue of th is

period has changed from a good thing, connected with progress, success,
and strength, to almost a dirty word with i t s newfound connotations of
urban sprawl, po llu tion , and over-crowding.




But in examining the e ffe c ts




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-2 9 -

of growth on quality of l i f e , one must steer away from such slogans, and
examine how growth tends to improve the quality of l i f e and how i t tends
to detract from i t .
Growth, economic and demographic combined, tends to increase the
number of transactional opportunities — opportunities for personal and
impersonal interchange of a l l kinds — available to residents of an
area.

Most of these opportunities are p o sitiv ely valued and may improve

the quality of l i f e in an area:

economic and educational opportunities,

entertainment and cultural options, variety of consumer goods and ser­
v ice s, diversity of people from which to form a friendship c ir c le .
Other transactional opportunities — criminal transactions and the
opportunity to meet more cars during rush hour — are generally negatively
valued and detract from the quality of l i f e , but a far greater portion of
the personal and so cia l costs of growth are in nontransactional areas.
With demographic growth comes a decrease in q uiet, in scenic beauty, in
space available for personal liv in g , in privacy (although the small town/
large c ity comparison makes th is arguable), and in access to clean air
and water and green grass and trees.

I t i s this la tte r — negative —

e ffe c t of growth that has been stressed in recent years, but the current
wisdom should not lead to our ignoring the transactional aspects of
growth.
The choices facing people range a l l along the continuum.
poles, they can choose New York City or rural Wyoming.

At the

The choices

facing mediiim-sized metropolitan areas lik e Santa Clara County are more
lim ited.

They cannot maximize at either extreme as individuals can, but

must attempt to optimize, balancing increases in transactional opportuni­
tie s against the costs incurred in lessened tranquility and damaged ecol­
ogyTo guide city and county o f f i c i a l s in this balancing a ct, i t is
important to o ffer them choices for their constituents.

I t is particu­

la rly important for them (and for us) to discover whether the non-trans­
actional — environment, a esth etics, and privacy — aspects of their
area are important only to a small vocal minority, or are more generally




186
-3 0 -

stressed by a wide range of c itiz e n s .

Our preliminary analysis has

examined the preference data that e x is t; ultimately we expect to sup­
plement existing data.
A 1965 survey of the environmental attitudes of Santa Clara County
*
provides some very preliminary guidelines. Questionnaires

residents

were l e f t at the homes of respondents to be f i l l e d out and returned.
Although the sample of completed questionnaires numbered over 4000, d i f ­
ferences in response-rate led to low income and nonwhite households being
underrepresented, a bias which should be kept in mind when considering
the findings discussed below.
The most interesting general finding is the strong interest ex­
pressed by respondents in preserving the beauty of their environment and
in increasing the quietness, privacy, and spaciousness of their home sur­
roundings.

While more than two-thirds of the sample said that business

and job opportunities were very important in their decision to move to
the County, and over one-half said that such opportunities were the p r i­
mary reason for moving, "clim ate and natural settin g " was next in impor­
tance.

Although only 17.5 percent said that this was the primary reason

for the move, almost one-half stated that "clim ate and natural se ttin g "
was a very important factor in their decision to move.
I t is unfortunate for our purposes that climate and natural setting
were combined in the question because policy decisions can a ffe c t only
the la tt e r .

Perhaps people care far more about climate than about nat­

ural settin g ; i f so, policymakers could give a green ligh t to intensive
development with fewer qualms about detracting from the natural beauty
of the region.
The survey, fortunately, included a number of questions dealing with
the natural setting in and of i t s e l f ; in particular, there were questions
dealing with the future use of h i lls and mountains, agricultural lands,
and San Francisco Bay.
*

Op. cvt*




The answers to th e s e q u e s tio n s lay to r e s t the

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-3 1 -

p o s s i b i l i t y th a t i t may be on ly a m in o rity 3 c o n s is tin g o f young3 upper
m id d le-cla ss w h ite s 3 who ca re about p r e s e r v in g open sp a ces and n a tu ra l
b ea u ty .
Forty-four percent (44%) of the households responding desire
that no more f i l l i n g of San Francisco Bay be allowed. Another
47% fe e l that f i l l i n g of San Francisco Bay should be allowed
for parks and recreation only. Adding these two groups together,
about 90% of the households would not approve of f i l l i n g the Bay
for in d u stria l, residen tial or commercial development. O the
n
other hand, about 5% favor intensive development.
Thirty-three percent (33%) of the households responding fe e l
that no further development should be allowed on what remains
of the farm and orchard lands. Another 55% fe e l that the best
lands for farms and orchards should be saved, while the rest
may be b u ilt on. Adding these two groups together, nearly 90%
of the households agreed that the best agricultural lands
should be saved for agriculture. On the other hand, about 5%
do not fe e l any need for the preservation of farm and orchard
lands.
Twenty-four percent (24%) of the households responding fe e l
that the h i lls and mountains surrounding the Santa Clara Valley
should be conserved for parks and recreation only. Sixty-two
percent (62%) desire that development in the h i lls be lim ited
to housing that does no violence to the natural shape and
beauty of the fo o th ills .
O the other hand, about 12% show
n
l i t t l e or no in terest in restric tin g development in the fo o t­
h ills .
Viewing these three groups of questions together: the vast
majority of the citizens of Santa Clara County fe e l that the
extent, beauty and character of existin g open space should
be protected from intensive development.*
Although the survey did not ask respondents what they would be w ill­
ing to give up to retain the beauty and character of the natural settin g ,
i t is possible to check their responses to other questions for consis­
tency in their expressed desires.
was:

The most useful question in th is regard

"Some people think that we need better recreational and cultural

f a c i l i t i e s in the county.

Do you think that we need to spend tax money

to provide better f a c i l i t i e s for the follow ing?"

Nine items were lis t e d .

The response categories were "much need," "some need," " l i t t l e need,"
*

Op. QVt.y p. 4.




188

and "no need.1
'

The two most popular itL.ns on the l i s t , with over 40 per­

cent of the sample saying "much need," were "large regional parks, open
space" and "sm all parks and playgrounds."

I f the "some need" responses

are added, over three-quarters of the sample voted for more parks, play­
grounds, and open space.
Approximately a quarter of the sample responded "much need" to the
following (in rank order):

"system of t r a ils for hiking and horseback

r id in g ," "theater (for plays, concerts, e t c . ) , " "museums (a rts, sciences,
e t c . ) , " " f a c i l i t i e s to boat and f i s h ," and "z o o ."

I f "some need" re­

sponses are added, over half the respondents are saying that these things
are needed.

The two less popular items were "sports stadium or arena"

and "g o lf cou rses."

There was also an "oth er" category, but only three

percent of the sample took advantage of i t indicating that the nine
lis te d items adequately represented desired a ltern a tiv es.
The most popular items on this l i s t — parks, small and large —
are consistent with the desire to preserve the beauty and character of
the natural setting expressed ea rlier in the questionnaire.

They are

also consistent with how respondents say they would like to spend their
time and with their self-reported usage of recreational f a c i l i t i e s .
Although most respondents say they would prefer to spend most of their
non-working hours at home, outdoor recreation runs a strong second.

The

usage figures on the relevant outdoor f a c i li t i e s are:
Members of the Household Use
At least
once a
month

At least
3-4 times
a year

Almos
never

Small parks and
playgrounds

48.0%

67.0%

25.4%

Large community-wide
parks

30.0%

63.3%

27.9%

Mountains

22.3%

67.3%

25.0%

Large natural areas for
hiking, campin g, etc .

20.0%

55.2%

36.8%




189
-3 3 -

Most people prefer to spend the bulk of their non-working hours at
home, spending time with the fam ily, working on their home or garden,
reading, watching te le v isio n , e tc .

Presumably their home and i t s imme­

diate surroundings are important to them.
in this sphere?
Study sta tes:

What are their preferences

The summary statement in the Environmental Attitudes
"Although there is a variety of dwelling types and neigh­

borhood types that people would lik e to liv e in , i t was found that there
ts a general desire for more privacy and the experience of open space
for a l l ty p e s."

This, in turn, may create another paradox, however:

'The quest for space and privacy for each individual and family has been
a major factor leading to sprawl for San Jose as a whole.
may be solved by better p o licy,

The paradox

but i t has not yet been.

Respondents were asked what would make apartments and subdivision
houses more acceptable.

Apartments become more acceptable as they pro­

vide greater privacy (better soundproofing, private patios and balconies)
and more opportunity to experience the outdoors.

This does not con flic t

with retaining open space, but i f Santa Clara County is lik e other areas
(the survey did not ask), most people prefer single family dwellings.
And when asked about things that would make subdivisions more acceptable,
86 percent expressed a desire for larger yards and more space between
houses.
Santa Clara County residents are consistent in their desire for
space:

they want open lands, they want parks, they want more space

around their homes.

Unfortunately, there is no necessary connection

between psychological consistency and economic consistency.

The pattern

of land use they desire w i ll, with continuing economic and demographic
growth, become inconsistent at some point in the future.

I f people want

more space around their homes, i t has to come from somewhere.

At some

point, i t w ill become necessary to start nibbling away at the best agri­
cultural and recreational lands to provide residen tial space.
In the next phase of the study, we plan to estimate the poin t, in
terms of population, at which th is w ill occur in San Jose under varying
assumptions about the density of housing and, i f po ssible, a single set

81-745 O - 72 - pt. 1 --1 3




190
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of assumptions about the "b e s t" agricultural and recreational lands and
their proportions in relation to residen tial land.
w ill ask:

In other words, we

How much growth can San Jose experience while meeting the

expressed preferences of i t s residents, i . e . , while preserving the beauty
and character of i t s natural settin g and somewhat increasing outdoor
recreational opportunities?

This w ill be answered in terms of several

assumptions about housing density:

maintenance of current average density,

and various le ve ls of increase and decrease in density.
For th is analysis, i t would be desirable to have information on the
proportions of the San Jose population desiring differen t levels of den­
s ity and their tradeoffs between density and other fa cto rs.

(Would the

group wanting more land around their houses, for instance, be w illin g to
have both larger lo ts and landscaped green b elts dividing the lo ts at the
expense of access roads? — Cars would be le f t at the entrance of the sub­
division with e le c tric cars and shopping baskets provided for cartage, as
in the new Welfare Island Development in New York.)

Some of this informa­

tion may be available from our intended reanalysis of the data from the
Environmental Attitudes Study.

This survey, however, was faulty in a num­

ber of ways, and we expect ultimately to in itia te a survey of our own,
using the reanalysis of the 1965 data as an aid to constructing the new
survey.
The discussion of the la st few pages concerning attitudes toward the
non-transactional aspects of growth — i t s e ffe c ts on space, beauty,
privacy — may make i t appear that we are talking about a simple twosided growth paradox, with the economic dependence on growth illu str a te d
by the model representing the benefits of growth; and i t s deleterious
e ffe c ts on non-transactional variables, the c o sts.
simple, however.

Matters are not that

As has been indicated, growth has many non-economic bene­

f i t s associated with increase in transactional opportunities.
Unfortunately, the Environmental Attitudes Study paid l i t t l e attention
to desires for transactional opportunities and even le ss attention to pre­
ferred tradeoffs.

It did, however, point the way to the kind of analysis that

is needed i f resid en ts' preferences are to be taken adequately into account




191
-3 5 -

in planning and policymaking.

A cluster analysis was performed to iden­

t if y groups of people who had sim ilar desires for types of housing, neigh­
borhood, and community.

As the authors point out:

. . . i t should be possible to have differen t housing types
and neighborhood types in order to sa tis fy the varied desires
and needs of the poeple. There is no single aggregated
"housing market" or ’’ community" but rather there are a number
of specialized markets and sub-communities.*
Aggregate measures are often useful for descriptive purposes but they are
less useful as policy aids.

A reasonable aim for community planning is

to maximize options available to resid en ts; planning for the average
householder cannot do th is.
The results of the cluster analysis undertaken as part of the Environ­
mental Attitudes Study underscore th is point.

One of the eight "household

types" id en tified was the "ty p ic a l household," fam ilies with average envir­
onmental attitudes liv in g in average houses in average neighborhoods.
These average householders accounted for only 15 percent of to ta l house­
holders.

The point is not that a minority with specialized needs and

preferences is ignored when policy is made for Mr. and Mrs. Average; rather
i t is that the majority i s ignored.
A major purpose of the new survey we hope to undertake w ill be the
.
id e n tifica tio n of household types in terms of the clustering not merely
of preferences but of preferred tradeoffs ( e . g . , at what c o s t would they
want more open space, e t c .? )

The Environmental Attitudes Study, and other

studies, suggest that such groupings or clusterings of preferences w ill
not be coterminous with socio-economic groupings.

Variables such as income

le v e l, eth n icity, age, e t c ., are not highly correlated with attitudes about
housing, neighborhoods, and environment.

Therefore, a cluster analysis

identifying potential "sub-communities," i f made relevant to both lo cal
government o ffi c i a ls and land developers, may suggest alternate development
*0p. o i t . j p. 10.
Op. o i t . 3 p. 11.




192
-3 6 -

prospects that could reverse the current trend towards increasing r e s i­
dential segregation on the basis of income and ethnicity in Santa Clara
County.
As mentioned in a subsequent section of this report, the other major
purpose of the proposed survey would be to examine the relation between
socioeconomic m obility and geographic mobility for differen t groups within
the population.

I f time and money permit, we would also lik e to examine

b e lie fs and attitudes about public spending on the provision of services
and protection of the environment, but these plans are more ten tative.

BENEFITS A D COSTS O G O T
N
F R WH
The fin a l step in the projection portion of the analysis of growth
w ill be to combine the resu lts of the two halves of the investigation —
that which shows the economic consequences of d ifferen t rates of growth
or lack of growth, and that which analyzes the "Urban Sprawl" and "Quality
of L ife " consequences of differen t rates and kinds of growth — into a set
of statements showing both the favorable and unfavorable e ffe c ts of d if­
ferent growth rates.

Predictably, i t is unlikely that at this level of

"no policy change" baseline projection, there w ill be any "good" answers.
What is lik e ly to be projected w ill be con flictin g alternatives — d if­
ferent combinations of more or le ss economic d istre ss, on the one side,
with less or more "Urban Sprawl" and deterioration of at least the non­
transactional aspects of the quality of l i f e , on the other.

It w ill be

the role of the direct analysis of policy options to attempt to resolve
these — insofar as they can be resolved.




193
-3 7 -

III.

SOCIAL PR BLEM
O
S

The social problems that we refer to are properly divided into
two categories:
with crime.

those associated with low income arid those associated

To be sure, these problems overlap in their e ffe c ts on

the to ta l population.

Nevertheless, low income problems (high

unemployment, poor health, inadequate housing, lower educational a ttain ­
ment) are the direct experience of poor people, affectin g the non-poor
population in quite differen t ways.

Crime, on the other hand, is a

s u ffic ie n tly varied phenomenon to have both victims and perpetrators
spread throughout the population, with differen t income groups having
high rates of commission and victim ization according to the type of
crime in question.

TH POPULATION
E
To organize our data on the population and so cia l problems of
Santa Clara County, we began by clustering the County's census
*
tracts into groups that, as far as p o ssible, are sim ilar within
each group and dissim ilar among them.

This c la ssific a tio n then

made i t possible to examine so cia l problems in the d ifferent sorts
of neighborhoods defined by the various clu sters.
The use of tract data has one important disadvantage:

i t is not

completely possible to say whether characteristics that look connected
on a tract basis are connected because the tracts contain individuals
with these sets of ch racteristics or because the tracts themselves are
made up of some individuals with one of the ch aracteristics and some
individuals with another.

For example, i f a tract has a r e la tiv e ly high

incidence of poverty, a substantial number of Mexican-Americans but
an Anglo-white m ajority, does th is r e fle c t the presence of MexicanAmericans who are almost a ll poor, Anglos who are poorer on the average
than Anglos liv in g in other tra c ts, or some mixture of heavy MexicanAmerican poverty and greater-than-average Anglo poverty?

In this case,

i t is impossible to know without additional information.

Fortunately,

-

Of the 127 tracts in the County, 125 were included in the analysis.
The two excluded were Moffet F ield , a Navy base, and a tract that was
en tirely a large h osp ital.




194
-3 8 -

we have available from the 1966 Santa Clara special census, upon which
we based the cluster an alysis, w ith in -tr a c t data that w ill enable us
to answer these questions.

This, in fa c t, is a major reason for stressin g

the 1966 data in th is analysis.

Although some attention is paid to

changes from 1960 to 1966 and from 1966 to 1970, subsequent analysis
w ill attempt some reclustering for these other years to permit further
study of change.
The disadvantage of using tract data, however, is more than balanced
by two advantages (in addition to the advantage that i t is the most
readily available and manipulable for i n i t i a l structuring of a n a ly sis.)
F ir s t, tract data w ill enable us to connect the so cia l problems of this
section with the patterns of growth that are the central focus of the over­
a l l study.

And, second, a number of the immediate policy questions asked

us by lo cal o f f i c i a l s have a geographic orientation for which i t w ill be
necessary to look at tra c ts.

Section IV below reports on our plans for

use of the clustered tract analysis to estimate the costs of new
residen tial development in San Jose, for example.
Six clusters of tracts were identified by use of a principal compo­
nents analysis described in some d e ta il in the Appendix.

The nine

variables used within the analysis to score the tracts were:
percent on public assistance;
percent unemployed;
percent owner-occupied housing;
percent persons 25 years old and older with less than eight
years formal education;
average household siz e ;
median income;
percent persons 65 years or older;
percent persons 19 years or under;
percent Mexican-American.
Through the principal components analysis, we reduced the dimensions to
three.

Although such components are seldom subject to precise character­

iz a tio n , the three dimensions can be described reasonably accurately as:
an economic well-being component;
low-income component;




a large-household, rela tiv ely

and an older, homeowner component.

195
-3 9 -

The tracts did not f a l l neatly into separate clusters according
to these components; because they did not, the boundary lin es between
clu sters are somewhat arbitrary.

Nonetheless, i t was possible to obtain

six re la tiv e ly homogeneous clusters in a two-dimensional space constructed
from the economic well-being and the large-household, low-income components.
The economic component was divided into four categories with tracts
fa llin g in the two middle categories (moderate economic well-being)
further divided according to whether they were high or low on the
second fa cto r.

The resulting six clusters are described s t a t i s t i c a lly

in Table (2) by the means and standard deviations of their values on
the nine origin al variab les.

More h e u r is tic a lly , they are:

Cluster 1:

Lowest Income

Cluster 2:

Low Income; small households, either aged or

newly formed
Cluster 3:

Working Class; large households

Cluster 4:

B e tte r -o ff; small households, either aged or

newly formed
Cluster 5:

Upper Middle C lass, large households

Cluster 6:

Affluent.

An ea rlier clu ster analysis, using a simpler ad hoc scoring on
a smaller number of measures,* divided the tracts into three clusters
(a number we chose a rb itra rily ) whose problems we described as c r it i c a l,
su b c r itic a l, and n on critical.

Our more sophisticated analysis did

not merely divide each of the older three clusters in h a lf; i t shifted
some census t r a c ts , a fact which becomes relevant to the analysis at
several poin ts, as described below.
Chart 2 maps the six clu sters.

The largest area of the map is in

Cluster 3, but this is deceptive; the big tracts to the south are
sparsely populated.

In fa c t, almost three-quarters of the County

population is in clusters 5 and 6:
m iddle-class and affluent County.

Santa Clara is a w e ll-o ff upper
Our so cia l problems a n alysis, however,

w ill necessarily stress the other end of the scale.

The difference between the two cluster analyses is described in the
Appendix.




Table 2
MEANS3 AND STANDARD DEVIATIONS FOR NINE SOCIAL AND ECONOMIC
VARIABLES BY CLUSTER AND COUNTY

% Public
Assistance

%
Unemployed

% Owner
Occupied

% > 25 Yrs.
w / < 8 Yrs.
Education

Median ^
Income

Household
Size

% 1
65 Yrs.

% 1 19
Years

% MexicanAmerican

CLUSTER 1
Mean
SD

23.5
5.7

12.9
3.3

40.3
11.7

23.5
4.2

5,092
888

3.1
.55

10.2
4.0

35.8
7.4

35.8
10.6

7.0
3.9

3.8
1.5

33.0
17.7

9.7
4.6

6,480
1,392

2.4
.22

11.4
6.5

22.5
3.6

5.2
3.1

12.9
4.8 *

6.1
2.2

55.4
13.7

19.3
4.1

6,790
713

3.3
.56

7.1
2.8

39.1
6.7

19.2
8.3

2.3
1.7

1.8
1.1

55.2
20.4

5.4
3.6

9,084
1,331

2.7
.36

9.6
5.4

27.4
5.6

1.8
1.5

5.5
3.0

3.3
1.4

63.9
12.7

9.8
3.6

8,484
701

3.5
.52

3.7
L 8

41.2
6.1

8.0
6.1

2.5
1.4

1.9
.61

79.3
7.0

5.2
2.1

10,631
1,856

3.8
.26

3.5
2.2

44.7
3.3

3.2
2.5

6.4
7.7

3.8
4.0

64.1
21.1

9.8
7.6

8,772
2,651

3.4
.6

5.3
4.8

39.7
8.9

8.8
12.2

CLUSTER 2
Mean
SD
Cluster 3
Mean
SD
CLUSTER 4
Mean
SD
CLUSTER 5
Mean
SD
CLUSTER 6
Mean
SD
S.C. COUNTY
Mean
SD

aThese are weighted means.
^Income figures are in 1966 dollars — not deflated.







198
-4 2 -

Looking f i r s t at Cluster 1 (Lowest Income), we find i t is composed
of 17 tra c ts.

The highest proportions of public assistance, unemployment,

and low educational attainment occur in this clu ster, together with the
lowest median incomes in the County (in 1966, the average median income
for the cluster was $5,092 compared with $8772 for the County as a whole).
These tracts are found in three areas — A lviso, downtown San Jose, and
part of Gilroy in the south central rural part of the county.

(See

chart 2 .)
The largest percentages of Mexican-Americans liv e in these tra c ts,
though even in those which have r ela tiv ely low percentages of MexicanAmericans, economic w ell-being is sim ilarly low.

In 1966 the cluster

appears to contain a mixture of low-income older people, small households
and younger, larger fa m ilies.

For though we find that the cluster has

an average of fewer people under 19 (hereafter referred to as youth)
and more people over 65 than the average for the County, both household
size and percent of youth are higher on the average than we find in
Clusters 2 and 4.

(Indeed, the chief characterization of 2 and 4 is

their small household s i z e .)
The three neighborhoods of this f i r s t cluster resemble portraits
in s t i l l - l i f e , l i t t l e affected by events going on around them (although,
as noted, the people liv in g there may change).

While the County has

grown explosively and become wealthier, these neighborhoods
stood s t i l l .

(See table 3 .) It is true that their population has increased

s lig h tly , from 72,000 in 1960 to 77,000 in 1970, but this is an increase
of 7 percent while the County increased by 66 percent.

Between 1960

and 1966, median income appeared to go up almost $350, but in deflated
dollars i t actually decreased by almost. $200; in fla tio n in the world
around l e f t them worse o ff than before — not to mention their increase
in rela tiv e deprivation, given the increasing income in the rest of the
County.

The percent on public assistance did not change very much, nor

did the degree of crowding, nor the portion of the aged among them.
In this curiously s t i l l world, two forms of change did occur.

The

proportion of persons in the neighborhoods who were Mexican-Americans
increased by a noticeable amount, in a period when the proportion of
Mexican-Americans in the county as a whole decreased, providing further
confirmation of the County Planning Department’ s statement that, "both




Table 3
S TATISTICS FOR T R A C T CLUSTERS *
Clu s t er 2

C l uster 1

__________ >

________ v.xu8ter

196 0
Population

1966

1970

1 960

1966

1970

1960

1966

72,272

72,647

77,541

6 7 ,360

81,048

85,530

88,621

105,255

1970
115,938

_________________________ C lu ster 5

1960

1966

1970

1960

39,029

46,170

47,719

147,680

____

____

1966

1970

I 960

225,395

267,462

221,022

Cluster 6
7966

T 4 7 0 "*

383,064

466,973

M e d i a n I ncome
Mean
SD
1 0th P e r c e n t i l e
9 0th P e r c e n t i l e
Median

4,618
789
3,146
5,376
4,856
2 ,7085 ,540

5,092
888
1,800
5,838
5,200
2,3505,950

1960

1966

4 ,925
1,897
1 ,518
7,324
5,238
1,4897,719
1970

6 ,480
1,392
5,050
8 ,200
6,500
2,9008,900

1960

1966

5,612
968
4,556
6,571
5,970
1,9026,615
1970

6,790
713
5.900
7,700
6.900
5,2507,700

9,084
6,028
1,331
2,606
934
7,900
8,161
11,000
7,207
8,400
9347,9009,006 11,850

1960

1966

1960

1966 _____

7,107
737
6,038
7,997
7,363
5,1948,11 2
1960

8,484
701
7,779
9 ,3 00
8,408
7,51710, 500

8,489
1,277
7,117
10,431
8,282
4,97811 ,2 00

1966

1960

10,631
1,856
8,626
13,032
10,100
8 000
16,398

,

-

1 9 6 6 _____

M e d i a n I ncome D e f l a t e d
Mean
SD
10th P e r c e n t i l e
90th Percentile
Me d i a n
Ra n g e

4,582
799
3,420
5,254
4,680
2,1155,355
1960

5,832
1,253
4,545
7,380
5,850
2,6108,010

1966

1970

23
6
17
30
23
12-35

26
7
13
37
26
13-37

1 96 0

1966

1970

1960

47
12
26
62
50
1 8-62

40
12
26
53
42
13-56

37
12
22
53
37
12-61

46
17
29
76
48
10-79

1960

1966

6,111
641
5,310
6,930
6,210
4,7256,930
1970

8,175
1,198
7,110
9,900
7,560
7,11010,665

7,636
631
7,001
8,370
7,567
6,7659,450

1966

1966

1966

2-18

1970

% Public Assistance
Mean
SD
10th Percentile
90th Percentile
Median
R a nge

7
4
3
10
6
3-17
1966

7
4
4
12
6
4-16
1970

Z Owner Occupied
Mean
SD
1 0t h P e r c e n t i l e
90 t h P e r c e n t i l e
Median
Range




33
18
11
61
36
5-69

32
21
6
62
26
4-90

7

9,568
1,671
7,763
11,729
9,090
7,20014,758

C
O
C
O

Page 2.

1960

1966

1970

196 0

1966

1970

1960

1966

72,2 7 2

Population

72,647

7 7,541

67,360

81,048

8 5,530

88,621

105,255

16
7
7
28
14
6-28

6
3
2
10
6
2-13

4
2
2
6
4
1-7

13
5
7
19
12
4-28

1960

1960

1966

1970

115,938

39,029

46,170

47,719

147,680

11
6
5
20
10
4-27

4
2
2
5
4
.8-8

3
1
1
5
3
.9-5

1966

11
5
4
16
12
4-22

1970

2 25,395

1970
267,462

___________ Cluster 6 _________
1960_______ 1966_______ 1 9 70
2 21,022

383,064

466,973

Z Households < 1
P er R o o m
Mean
SD
10th P e r c e n t i l e
90 t h P e r c e n t i l e
Median
Range

16
8
7
31
13
5-31
1960

M e d i a n Rent

196 6

197 0

I960

107
13
83
122
108
77- 1 2 5

1966

85
10
76
99
84
68- 1 0 8

1970

iQftn

136
20
108
163
136
106-163

1Q&A

77
9
63
90
79
57-91

iQ7n

iQ*.n

124
18
106
143
122
82-165

97
9
74
108
98
74-108

1970

1960

1 QA&

i Q7n

1 960

8
5
3
13
7
2-20
1966

1970

d,e

Mean
SD
10th Percentile
90th P e r c e n t i l e
Median
Ran g e

73
10
53
' 83
75
51-84
1960

1966

197 0

• 1960

1966

1970

1960

1966

152
18
134
174
145
134-193
1966

1970

150
12
136
161
153
119-175

97
12
75
106
101
64-116
1960

1966

1970

M e d i a n Rent, D e f l a t e d
Mean
SD
1 0th P e r c e n t i l e
90th Percentile
Median
Range

80
10
62
91
81
58-94
1960

1966

102
15
81
122
102
79-122

1970

196 0

18, 1 3 5
1,5 0 6
1 6,411
21,047
1 7,7 0 6
1 5 , 8 9 5-

16,5 0 8
2,107
13,800
1 9, 2 0 0
17,0 0 0
1 3 ,300-

1966

1970

1960

1966

1970 .

112
9
102
121
115
89-131

114
13
101
131
109
101-145

93
14
80
107
91
61-124
15.60

1966

1970

1960

1966

1970

Median House Value
Mean
SD
10th P e r c e n t i l e
90th P e r c e n t i l e
Median
Ran g e




12,569
1,1 6 9
11,100
14,300
12,500
10,9 0 0 -

24,773
4,121
19,187
29,466
24,352
18,95933,005

14,018
1,388
12,700
15,100
14,000
10,00016,8(

21,780
2,986
18,614
24,912
20,725
18,286-

20,915
4,197
16,200
25,000
22,500
16,200-

32,947
8,596
23,334
43,507
29,103
23,334-

16,785
2,639
14,100
19,900
1 6,800
1 0,8002 2,300

25,227
3,417
21,081
30,428
23,682
20,87633,467

20,012
3,681
16,400
25,000
18,500
13,80031,100

30,594
5,171
25,037
39,125
28,303
22,07548,294

Page 3.
Clu s t e r 2

Cluster 1
.JL2.60
Population

72,272

Cluster 3

1966

1970

1960

1966

1970

1960

72, 6 4 7

77,541

67, 3 6 0

81, 0 4 8

85,530

88,621

1966

Cluster 4
1970

105,255

1 15,938

Cluster 5

1960

1966

1970

39,029

46,170

47,719

1960
147,680

1966
225,395

Cluster 6
1970

1960

267,462

221,022

1966

1970

383,064

466,973

M e d i a n H o u s e Value,
Deflated
Mean
SD
1 0th P e r c e n t i l e
90 t h P e r c e n t i l e
Median
Ra n g e

1 3 ,710
1,139
12,407
15,912
13,385
12,01616,074
1 960

’
966

1970

18,728
3,115
14,506
22,276
18,410
14,33324,952
1960

1966

1970

16,466
2,258
14,072
18,833
15,668
13,82426,648
1960

1966

1970

19,072
2,583
15,937
23,003
17,904
15,78225,301

24,908
6,499
17,640
32,892
22,002
17,64032,892
1960

1966

1970

1960

1966

1970

23,129
3,909
18,928
29,578
21,397
16,68936,511
1960

1966

1970

% * 65 Y e a r s
Me a n
SD
10th Percentile
90t h P e r c e n t i l e
Median
Range

11
5
4
17
13
4*18
196 0

10
4
5
15
11
3-19
1966

12
5
7
18
11
4-26
1970

13
6
5
23
13
4-26
1960

11
6
4
20
12
3-27
1966

11
7
4
23
10
2-27
1970

8
3
4
12
8
.4-15
1960

7
3
3
10
7
.9-14

7
3
3
11
7
1-16

1966

1970

10
6
2
18
10
2-21
1960

10
5
1
15
12
1-17
1966

11
5
4
16
13
4-16
1970

4
2
1
7
4
.9-8
1960

4
2
2
6
3
1-8
1966

4
2
2
7
4
.02-10
1970

4
3
2
8
3
.9-16
1960

3
2
2
6
3
.7-12
1966

4
2
2
7
3
1-11
1970

Z - 19 Y e a r s
Mean
SD
10th P e r c e n t i l e
90th Percentile
Median
Range

36
7
26
45
36
22-50
1960

1966

22
4
17
27
23
15-28
1970

1960

1966

39
7
33
48
36
28-54
1970

1960

1966

41
6
34
51
40
29-52

27
6
18
33
30
18-33
1970

1960

1966

1970

1960

1966

45
3
41
47
45
36-52
1970

1960

1966

1970

Household Size
Mean
SD
10t h P e r c e n t i l e
90th Percentile
Median
Range




3
.5
2
4
3
2-4

2
.2
2
3
2
2-3

3
3
4
3
3-5

3
.3
2
3
3
2-3

4
.5
3
4
3
3-5

4
3
4
4
3-4

to
o

Page 4.
Cluster 6

Cluster 5
1966
Population

72 , 2 7 2

72,647

77,541

67,360

81,048

85,530

8 8 ,621

105,255

115,938

39,0 2 9

46,170

47,719

147,680

225,395

1 9 6 6 _____
267 , 4 6 2

221,022

383,064

4 6 6,973

X Mexican-Amerlcan
Mean
SD
10th P e rcentile
90th Percentile
Median
Ra n g e

.4-26
196 0

.3-10
1966

X 1 25 Yrs. w i t h
£ 8 Y rs. Educ.

to
o
to

SD
10th Percentile
9 0 th P e r c e n t i l e
Median
Range

X Unemployed
SD
10th P e r c entile
90th P e r c entile
Median
Range

S e e n e x t p a g e f or f o o t n o te s .




13
3
9
16
12
6-21

4
2
2
6
4
2-7

6
2
3
10
5
2-11

2
1
.2
3
2
.2-3

3
1
2
6
3
1-7

2
.6
1
3
2
.3-3

203
-4 7 -

Footnotes to Table 3
aA ll values are weighted by population; "household value" is
weighted by owner-occupied housing. A ll values are rounded.
^The Tract with $934 median income includes Stanford University
and the income reported is largely that of students.
0

Using the San Francisco Bay area Consumer Price Index, 1960.

^These figures in the upper categories w ill be underestimated
because the upper category in census data i s , "x dollars or more."
eMedian contract rent is not available for 34 of the 77 higher
income tracts presumably because of the high percentage of owneroccupied units in these tra cts.




204
-4 8 -

economic and racial/eth n ic segregation increased from 1960 to 19 66 ."
And while crowding remained v irtu a lly the same, other housing variables
changed in the direction of the County as a whole, though the changes
were of modest character compared with more afflu en t clu sters.

Median

rent increased (in deflated dollars) by about 8 percent, the value of owner
occupied housing increased (in deflated dollars) by about 7 percent, but
the most obvious change was a 21 percent decline in owner-occupied
housing — a decline about mid-way in the percent declines of the
remaining c lu sters.
For the most part, the e ffe c ts of growth — good and bad — have
tended to flow past the people livin g in these stagnant backwaters.
Housing cost and quality in the areas has been more sensitive to the
changes elsewhere than have the so cia l or other economic characteristics
of the area.

People rejected by the mainstream have flowed into them.

W observe a quiet sag in the economic well-being of these areas.
e

Because

San Jose is a young c ity , we may have a portrait of poor areas ju st before
a more rapid deterioration.
Clusters 2 (low-income, small households) and 3 (working c la ss,
large households) are both low on measures of economic w ell-b eing, but
a closer look suggests that the economic problems of the two stem from
quite different sources.

Cluster 2 is composed of 16 tracts mostly

grouped west and northwest of downtown San Jose, including much of the
city of Santa Clara.

The most d istin ctive characteristics of Cluster

2 are the small percentages of Mexican-Americans in these tracts (an
average of 5 .2 percent compared with the county average of 8 .8 percent),
and the high proportion of single individuals or small households liVing
in rented quarters.

Compared with the other clu sters, 2 has the highest

percentages of people over 65, the smallest households, and the fewest
children.

Those economic variables on which they score most poorly

compared with Working Class Cluster 3 are income and home-ownership
(not public assistance, unemployment, or educational attainment),

Santa Clara County Planning Department, The Housing S itu a tio n >
1969, p. 62.




205
-4 9 -

suggesting that their economic problems come from being near one o f two
extremes of the family/work cycle:

some of these people are retired and

livin g on fixed incomes while others may be younger couples ju st starting
their fam ilies.
Cluster 3, on the other hand, is most distinguished by i t s younger,
larger, working-class fa m ilies.

The 20 tracts of this cluster li e rather

lik e a pendant around the downtown area of Cluster 1, taking in parts
of Sunnyvale to the west, Alum Rock to the ea st, and the rural neighbor­
hoods of the south.

The worst economic problems in this cluster show

up in their r e la tiv ely high averages of public assistance, unemployment,
and low educational attainment.

This cluster contains the second highest

percentage of Mexican-Americans in the County — an average twice that
of the County as a whole, though only h a lf that of Cluster 1.
Both Clusters 2 and 3 have changed (or fa iled to change) over time
in sim ilar ways on most of the economic variables that we can presently
measure over time.

Constrasted to Lowest Income Cluster 1, the changes in

2 and 3 were mostly modest improvements, or at least show no marked de­
terio ration .

In 2 and 3, for example, the percent of people over 65

remained about constant from 1960 to 1970.

Value of owner-occupied

houses increased as did rents; crowding decreased s lig h tly .

From 1960

to 1966, the Mexican-American percentage declined s lig h tly ; from 1966 to
1970, the public assistance percentage remained about the same.
There are some important changes on which the two clusters do
d iffe r , however.

For example, median incomes in Working Class Cluster

3 start from a higher 1960 base than those of Low Income, Small Household
Cluster 2, but the dollar increase in median incomes from 1960 to 1966 in
Cluster 3 was l i t t l e more than half that in Cluster 2 ($500 contrasted to
$900 in 1960 d o lla r s).

At the same time, the percent of home ownership

in Cluster 3 declined much le ss than in Cluster 2.

These are complex

relationships that w ill require the w ithin-tract data to straighten out
en tire ly .

In our ea rlier analysis, which grouped many of the Working

Class and Small Household Tracts in the Subcritical Category, the
heterogeneity of the Category made analysis next to impossible.
In any case, both clu sters appear to be slig h tly more fn touch with
the mainstream of economic a ctiv ity in the County as a whole than is

81-745 O - 72 - pt. 1 -- 1 4




206
-5 0 Cluster 1.

A ctually, it is the 30 percent increase in population in both

clusters that suggests, more than anything e lse , their greater v it a l i t y .
Unlike Cluster 1, they have changed.

Further change may be in either

direction, and pressures are lik e ly to a ffe c t Low Income, Small-Household
Cluster 2 and Working Class Cluster 3 d iffe re n tly .

I f our characterizations

of the clusters are correct, for example, a slowdown of economic growth
can have drastic e ffe c ts on Cluster 3 — throwing i t s workers out of jo b s,
and reducing public support for the children of i t s large fa m ilies.

In

Cluster 2, the e ffe c t of such a slowdown is lik e ly to be less on the aged,
but i t may hurt the newly formed households greatly.

The overall effe c t

on the census tracts of Cluster 2 w ill depend on the mix of those two
groups, the analysis of which w ill require the w ithin-tract data.
Clusters 4, 5, and 6 can be described as almost mirroring the demographic ch aracteristics of Clusters 2, 3, and 1
being their greater economic w ell-being.

■
k

— their chief distin ctions

Thus, while they need not be dis­

cussed in connection with so cia l problems associated with low income, they
are important to describe as areas of d ifferin g population ch aracteristics.
The f i r s t notable thing about Cluster 4 (re la tiv e ly w e ll-o ff small house­
holds) is that i t contains the most geographically d iffu se tracts of a l l
the clu sters.
County.

They appear to be areas close to various colleges in the

Hom ownership is especially varied among this c lu ste r ’ s tracts
e

(the standard deviation for the cluster is almost as large as that for the
County as a whole) probably because of the high proportion of renters sur­
rounding college areas.

One suspects, as with Cluster 2, that the popula­

tion f a l l s mainly near the two extremes of the family work cycle.

While 4

has fewer people over 65, and slig h tly larger households and more youth on
the average than Cluster 2, the two clusters are nevertheless more sim ilar
to each other on these measures than to the other clusters or to the
County as a whole.
Clusters 5 (Upper Middle C lass, Large Households) and 6 (Affluent)
include the remaining tracts in the County, distributed geographically
in the not unfamiliar pattern that leaves the b e st-o ff looking down from
the h i lls at the n e x t-to -b e st.
'h

Although Cluster 4 (B etter-off Small

This is necessarily the case because our method of clustering by
values on principal components polarizes the tracts along these axes.




207
-5 1 -

Households) is actually closer to Affluent Cluster 6 on most economic
measures than is Cluster 5, 4 d iffe rs greatly from 6 in demography.
Cluster 4 represents the ends of the family cycle — aging households
and newly-formed ones.

Cluster 5, however, contains the more "ty p ic a l"

fam ilies ju st down the economic scale from 6;

5, indeed, is clo sest to

the Santa Clara average, and Santa Clara County is prototypically an
area of upper/middle class fa m ilies.
Cluster 6 , then, has a l i t t l e more of everything than Cluster 5:
there are s lig h tly larger households, more youth, more homeowning,
higher median incomes, and higher educational le v e ls , on the average.
Cluster 5 is s lig h tly higher in the percent of people over 65 and
Mexican-Americans — not desirable characteristics in Santa Clara
County.
As noted, Clusters 5 and 6 contain almost three-quarters of the
County’ s population.

Here lie s the increase in economic well-being

that shows up so clearly in County aggregates — the p ositive effe c ts
of economic growth.
concentration.

Here liv e the well-educated Anglo-whites in increasing

(The percent of Mexican-Americans declined somewhat in

these two clusters from 1960 to 1966.)

In using this structure to aid

in the analysis of the County’ s housing, health, and education problems
in the next section s, we leave Clusters 5 and 6 , returning to them when
we look at crime, which has i t s own unexpected associations.

HOUSING
The central city areas of many of the large eastern c itie s have
deteriorated to a le v e l of b ligh t and decay that w ill require heroic
measures to reclaim.

In smaller metropolitan areas, particularly in

the West, pockets of poverty (usually populated by racial or ethnic
m inorities) are often interspersed within areas of wealth and high-quality
liv in g .

Santa Clara County is a case, in point.

Despite the rela tiv e affluence o f Santa Clara County as a whole, a
sign ifican t portion of the population is poor and inadequately housed.
W have seen, for example, that crowding remained unchanged from 1960
e
to 1970 in the lowest income cluster — during a period when rapid population




208
-5 2 -

growth in the County at large created high demands for construction in
other areas of the County.

According to the Joint Housing Element of

the Santa Clara County Planning Department, more than 15 percent of the
*
Fourteen

households had incomes less than $4,000 per year in 1966.

percent of the Anglo-white population were in this group as compared
with 24 percent of the Mexican-American population, and 25 percent of
the blacks.

This obvious and expected unequal distribution of poverty has

an interesting impact on housing patterns.
are well-mixed eth n ica lly.

Low income areas in San Jose

A ll groups are seen to be w ell in ter­

spersed in single family as well as multiple family dwellings.

This

is not to say that high concentrations of Mexican-Americans do not
e x is t, but that the absolute numbers of low income Anglo-whites, when
compared with other m in orities, require that r e lie f of low income
housing problems be viewed as an inter-group problem as well as a
minority problem.
Building construction in Santa Clara County during the past decade
has concentrated on high-value single family dwellings.

Yet over the

decade, percent of owner-occupied housing declined throughout the County
by as much as 30 percent in sm all-family Cluster 2 to 13 percent in
affluent Cluster 6.

In part, this reflec ts the fact that during the

la s t several years, a sign ifica n t sh ift to the construction of multiple
family dwellings has been taking place.
a reflection of preferences.

It is not clear that this is

Indeed, national mobility patterns (in ­

cluding between and within county moves) indicate that most moves are
***
Nevertheless, over time, as

made from rental to ownership tenancy.

in-migration to the County declines, the demand for ownership among the
resident, now-renting population can be predicted to increase.

1 -4 .

Even now,

Santa Clara County Planning Department, Joint Housing Element, page
Much of the data in this section is taken from this excellent study.

This may seem an apparent contradiction to the overall increasing
segregation of the County as a whole. It is not, however, because low
income whites liv e both in mixed and segregated neighborhoods whereas
those with higher incomes are primarily in segregated neighborhoods.
***
However, inter-region al migrants tend also to be young, so i t is
quite probable that Santa Clara county had an influx of younger couples
who were w illin g to rent during the fi r s t stage of their family l i f e
cycle.




209
-5 3 -

vacancy rates are fa ir ly high in the more expensive rental units ju st
being constructed at the same time that 15,000 low cost housing units
are estimated to be required to meet the needs of low income fa m ilies.
Cost of land has increased during this development period from 70c
per square foot in 1960 to $1.33 in 1970 and, together with the increases
in costs of labor and m aterial, this has influenced builders to supply more
multiple family dwellings purely for economic reasons.

In October 1970

i t was estimated that i n i t i a l occupancy costs for a $20,000 single family
dwelling were $2,300 with FH financing, and $5,500 with conventional
A
financing.

I n i t i a l occupancy costs for two-bedroom and three-bedroom

apartment rentals were $360 and $405, respectively.

Monthly costs for

a $25,000 house were calculated as $247 FH and $260 conventional, while
A
average monthly rental costs were $178 and $202 for two-bedroom and
three-bedroom apartments, respectively.

In 1969, the supply price of

housing was such that a family would have to earn approximately $12,000
per year to have a reasonable expectation of purchasing a $24,000 home.
Assuming 25 percent of monthly income as an acceptable le ve l for rent,
i t was necessary that a household have $5,760 annual income to pay the
$120 per month in rent required to have a reasonable expectation of
finding an unfurnished apartment in the lo cal supply of rental units.
Given the large number of households in Santa Clara County (approximately
16,000) earning le ss than $4,000 per year, i t is clear that low income
fam ilies do not have an adequate supply of rentals or owner-housing.
This is seen as the crucial housing problem (as far as number of
units go) in Santa Clara County, yet few suggested p o licies attack this
problem.

In our discussion of policy analysis, below, we go into some

of the Federal programs available.

Their current level of u tiliz a tio n ,

however, is quantitatively inadequate for Santa Clara County.

W also
e

make one new policy suggestion, based on the possible slowdown in growth
of the County.

HEALTH
W selected infant mortality rates as the best single indicator
e
of health conditions in Santa Clara County as a whole, and in low income




210
-5 4 -

areas in particular.

In doing th is , wc have used two rates:

infant mortality rates and neonatal mortality rates.

overall

These la tte r rates

refer to deaths occuring under one month, and are useful to consider in
the analysis of low income groups.

They are more e x p lic itly tied to the

age, general health, and care of the mother than arc the overall rates.
Increased risks of neonatal mortality are associated with shorter gesta­
tion periods, low birth weight, previous maternal pregnancy lo s s , and
illig itim a c y .

It is worth noting that in 19 70, the infant mortality

rate for the county (14.7 per 1,000 liv e births) was lower than the
rate for California (1 9.0 ) as w ell for the nation (2 4 .8 ).

Neonatal death

rates were sim ilarly low — 10.6 for the County, compared with 17.9 for
the United States.
Average infant mortality rates — whether overall or neonatal —
often mask sign ifica n t differences between minority and majority groups.
For example, in the United States in 1964, the rates were 21.6 (per
1,000 liv e births) for whites and 41.4 for non-whites.

In the case of

neonatal infant m ortality, the U.S. rates were 16.2 for whites and 26.5
for non-whites.

This sort of distin ction apparently does not apply to

majority-minority differences in Santa Clara County, however.

Neither

mortality rate in 1970 was much higher in the lowest income cluster than
in the most affluent clu ster.

It may be that the difference from the

national data is because the minority most heavily represented in Santa
C lara's lower-income group is Mexican-American, rather -than black.

While we have data on the occurence of tuberculosis, gonorrhea,
and shigula for the county, the low incidence of both tuberculosis and
shigula (a yearly average of 138 and 148 cases, respectively, in the
three-year period from 1968 to 1970) and the fact that gonorrhea is
more strongly associated with age distribution in the population than
with income distribution caused us to eliminate these measures from
consideration at the present time.
ieit

W have not been able to acquire rates from exactly comparable
e
years. The California rate is for 1968; the U.S. rate is for 1964; the
Santa Clara County rate is for 19 70. The difference in the rates may
thus be smaller than we in dicate, though the ranking is very lik e ly to
remain the same.
S. Shapiro, E. Schlesinger, R. N esbitt, J r ., Infant y Prenatal
Maternal3 and Childhood M ortality in the United States (Cambridge,
Mass.: Harvard University P ress), 1968, p. 274.




211

Table 4
INFANT A D NEONATAL DEATH R
N
ATES PER 1,0 00,
1970, B CLUSTER
Y

Cluster

1

2

3

4

5

6

County

TOTAL INFANT D
EATH
R
ATE
Weighted mean

20.4

15.1

21.3

19.8

12.4

14.2

Unweighted mean

18.7

14.1

16.7

18.8

12.5

13.5

14.7
12.8

SD

15.9

12.9

11.1

21.5

8.4

11.0

Weighted median

15.4

18.9

21.4

15.2

12.8

14.3

Unweighted median

13.9

15.2

20.0

15.2

13.1

13.3

13.4

10.1

12.6

16.1

8.8

10.6

NEONATAL D
EATH
RATE
Weighted mean
Unweighted mean

12.0

8 .8

10.1

15.5

9.4

10.7

10.6

SD

10.0

10.4

9 .6

15.7

8.9

10.6

10.6

Weighted median

15.4

.oooa

15.3

15.2

8 .5

8 .7

Unweighted median

11.4

.oooa

8.3

15.2

8.5

8.7

aHalf of the tracts in this cluster had no neonatal deaths for the
year.




212
-5 6 -

Nonetheless, i t is apparent from Table B that the average infant mortality
rates in the clusters follow no compelling pattern, with Lowest-Income
Cluster 1, Working-Class Cluster 3, and B e tte r -o ff Small Family Cluster
4 generally having the highest of both rates.
the clusters are equally curious.

The median rates for

None of these figures is very high

in national terms, but the absence of a clear association of higher rates
with the worst o ff tracts is intriguing.

It is d i f f i c u lt , given our present

data, to know exactly how to explain the findings.

The size of the standard

deviations suggests, however, that variations within clusters on this
measure may be so large as to wash out any between-cluster pattern.

The

w ith in -tract analysis w ill examine this p o s s ib ility .

EDUCATION
Santa Clara County public schools, in the f a l l of 1969, had over
275,000 students enrolled of which 58,000 or 21 percent were members of
minority groups.

Most of the minority students were, of course, Mexican-

Americans; they accounted for 16.6 percent of of the to ta l student body.
This compares with a Mexican-American proportion in the to ta l population
o f 9 .6 percent in 1966, the most recent year for which data on ethnicity
are available.
Currently, the only data we have which can be used to analyze changes
in ethnic composition over time are for the San Jose Unified School Dis­
tr ic t.

This D istrict had almost 36,000 students enrolled in the f a l l of

1969 and had added another 800 by the f a l l of 19 70.

The minority student

population was higher than in the County as a whole by 50 percent, and
the Mexican-American population was higher by 60 percent.
Although overrepresented compared with the county as a whole, the
proportion of Mexican-American students in the San Jose D istrict has
been decreasing slowly but steadily over the past several years, from
29.7 percent in 1966 to 26.6 percent in 1970.

(The proportion of

Negro students has remained steady and that of other non-whites has
dropped s lig h t ly .)

This appears to be a continuation of the trend for

1960-66 mentioned above:

a drop in the Mexican-American percentage

of County population, presumably due to the large influx o f . Anglo-whites
rather than to any out-migration of Mexican-Americans.




213
-5 7 -

As discussed e a r lie r , r e s i d e n t i a l segregation by ethnicity increased
in Santa Clara County between 1960 and 1966.

Following this lead, we

computed s c h o o l segregation in dices, for the elementary schools, junior
high schools, and high schools in the San Jose D istr ic t. The index
*
used summarizes the degree of segregation in a particular system. For
instance, an index of 67 percent says that 67 percent of the minority
group or of the majority group would have to change schools to produce
a distribution in which the minority group was proportionally represented
in a ll schools.

It is not to be interpreted as 67 percent of a ll students

having to change schools; i t is 67 percent of one or the other or additive
portions o f each (for example, 50 percent of the minority and 17 percent
of the majority students).

The index was computed using Mexican-Americans

as the minority and Anglo-whites as the m ajority; the small number of
other minority students was not included in the calculations.
Between 1966 and 1970, segregation increased s lig h tly in the elementary
schools (from 64.4 percent to 66.9 percent) and the junior high schools
(from 63.8 percent to 67.9 percent).
**

from 47.6 percent to 42.2 percent.

It decreased in the high schools
These figures are of in terest in

and of themselves, but they w ill be of most value when ethnicity data from
the 1970 census become availab le, so that comparisons with changes in
residen tial segregation over the same time period can be made.
W w ill a ls o , in the next phase of the study, examine by ethni­
e
city both dropout rates and courses of study in which students are enrolled
(academic, commercial, vocational education).

One of our main concerns

is the e ffe c t of economic growth on the upward mobility of MexicanAmericans in the San Jose area.

The prime agent of inter-generational

mobility must be the school system.

W w ill want to know how e ffe c tiv e ly
e

i t is functioning in this capacity, the actual rate of change in i t s

This index was developed by 0 . D. Duncan and B. Duncan and is
reported in "Residential D istribution and Occupational S t r a t ific a t io n ,"
American Journal o f S o c io lo g y 60 (1955), pp. 493-503.
I t w ill be interesting to see what effe c ts the closing of
certain schools, due to the Field (earthquake protection) Act, w ill have
on the segregation patterns of the remaining schools.




214
-5 8 -

effectiven ess over the past several years, and i t s potential effectiveness
under varying assumptions about changes in p o lic ie s , programs, and the
financing of public education.

This work w ill be done in conjunction

with the Rand Educational Program, which already includes a long-term
association with the San Jose Unified School D istr ic t.

CRIM
E
As we turn to an examination of the impact of growth on crime in
San Jose, the most surprising observation is that crime was never
mentioned to us as one of the major problems of San Jose when business­
men and public o ffi c i a ls discussed their concerns about growth in the
area.

Past research would have led one to expect something quite d if­

feren t, given the consistent findings of high crime rates in urbanized
areas with rapid population change — at f i r s t glance, the very conditions
present in San Jose.

One could even assume that the absence of crime from

the discussions of growth problems was simply an oversight, given the
presence in San Jose of a year-old Criminal Justice P ilot Program in
which one obvious aim is to construct models of law enforcement to
reduce crime.

W found, however, that San Jose did not search out the
e

program; the program designers chose San Jose because i t was an urban
area where the best hope for crime reduction lay.

Both the city and

county governments offered e ffe c tiv e and cooperative p o lit ic a l units
through which change could be expected to proceed at a higher than usual
le v e l of e ffic ie n c y , and the police department of San Jose (lik e those
of California generally) was already above the national average in pay
and educational le v e ls.
At the same time, i t would be a mistake to omit analysis of what
has happened to crime rates in San Jose.

I f the city can be shown to

have a very different crime pattern from that expected in expanding
urban areas, i t would be exceedingly useful to find out why.

I f San

Jose has crime patterns sim ilar to those of other urban areas, i t would
be interesting to discover why the difference between r ea lity and
perception lie s in the direction of under stating a real problem.
most c i t i e s , both public o ffi c i a ls and the general citizenry have
tended to exaggerate, not understate, images of local crime.'




In

215
-5 9 -

Our f i r s t analysis of the available crime data has begun to answer
these questions.

Crime rates have n o t remained low in San Jose.

The

police department’ s Annual Report in 1970 reports a 94 percent increase
over 1965 of "Part I " crimes, which include murder, negligent homicide,
forcible rape, robbery, aggravated assau lt, burglary, th eft (over and
*
However, the c r it ic a l observation to make

under $50), and auto th e ft.

about this increase is not the overall amount, but the frequencies of
particular crimes in th is category.

Burglary, auto

th e ft, and th efts

of $50 and over (th efts under $50 were not counted in these particular
frequencies) are the most frequent Part I crimes in San Jose and occur
**
Further, in comparing lo cal crime rates

in that order of frequency.

in 1970 with crime rates in C alifornia as a whole in 1969 (for murder,
fo rcib le rape, robbery, aggravated a ssau lt, burglary, theft $50 and over,
auto t h e f t ) , we find San Jose d ifferin g from the state by lower rates in
every category except auto th e ft, where the rate is 113.2 over that of
"kick
the sta te .
The lower rates are esp ecially sign ifican t since the state
crime rates are for a year ea rlier than the city ones, and each year
typ ica lly has a substantial increase over the la st one in a l l rates.
F in ally, calculations from the Baseline Offense Report for the fi r s t
four months of 1971 indicate that out of a to ta l of 7,300 offenses re­
ported in this period, only 2 percent involved use of or threat to use
guns or knives.
The f i r s t thing that becomes clear, then, is the reason why crime
does not appear to be foremost in the minds of the citizen s of San

San J o se P o lio e Department Annual Report^ 1970> p. 34. The usual
qu alification s about crime data apply abundantly to this m aterial. The
same table in which the offense increase is reported shows a 70 percent
increase in police personnel from 1965, suggesting that law enforcement
may have altered more than criminal offenses in this time period. When
the "Baseline Offense Report" currently under preparation by the Criminal
Justice P ilo t Program becomes availab le, we w ill have a much more re­
lia b le source of crime data for the county and c ity .
For example, un til
that report is completed we can say nothing about crime as a problem
of minority groups since the largest minority group — Mexican-Americans is reported in the "white" category in a ll the available data.
'k'k
I b i d . , p. 31.
***, . ,
Ib id .




216
-6 0 -

Jose.

The types of crimes present in peoples' minds when they speak

of "crime in the s tr e e ts1 are those accompanied by physical threat
'
(or follow-through) to person or property.

Thus, homicide, rape,

robbery, and assault with a weapon create more public agitation than
burglary or car th e ft.

Indeed, one of the in teresting and rather

dysfunctional side e ffe c ts of public calm about non-threatening crime
is the amount of property crime i t may encourage in rapidly growing
urban areas.

It is the impression of the researchers working with

the Baseline Offense Report that a sign ifica n t proportion of the thefts
in San Jose f a i l to involve "breaking i n . "

This suggests that people,

feelin g sa fe , leave cars and homes open — and vulnerable to th eft.
A second point that seems evident is that the crime rates in San
Jose re fle c t a rela tiv ely young (not esp ecially poor) urban population.
Car th e ft, for example, is often characterized as a form of middle class
(or "favored group") delinquency.

At least one must be advantaged

enough to have learned something about driving a car before stealing
one.

Quite apart from any other crime-inducing features of urban

environments, the sheer a cc e ssib ility of property, and the relative
anonymity of a large and growing population, increase the probability of
property crimes.

For example, burglaries in San Jose increased by almost

30% in the decade of the s ix t ie s .

Of particular in terest is the sh ift

in burglary ta r g e ts during th is time.

In 1960, not quite one-third of

the burglaries occurred in residences; by 1970, almost two-thirds of
*
them occurred in residences.
I t appears that the burgeoning housing
construction of the 1960’ s not only accomodated a fa st growing population,
but also encouraged change in this particular crime pattern by providing
ever increasing opportunities.
F in ally, age is an important factor to consider in interpreting
crime patterns.

The age group 15 to 29 is responsible for the highest

proportion of the Index crimes specified in the Uniform Crime Reports.

I b id .
1960-1969.

>




p. 36 and San Jose Police Department, Major O ffen se Data3

217
-6 1 -

Though the age breaks in Table 5 mask this s lig h tly , i t is obvious that
a youthful population has a high propensity to crime.

The impression

of many people in San Jose is that adolescents and young adults form
an exceptionally large part of their population.

In fa c t, the d i s t r i ­

bution of 15 to 29 year olds is quite close to the national distribution.
(See Table 5 .)

W must conclude that crime can be expected to have
e

increased in San Jose no more — but certainly no less — than i t has
for the nation as a whole, due to the expansion of this age group
between 1960 and 1970.
The study of crime in urban areas also involves the study of law
enforcement, for this is one o f the major services over which c itie s
have control.

I t is often in connection with law enforcement that under­

lying community c o n flicts c r y s ta lliz e .

Because law enforcement includes,

among other things, the representation of one group's in terests against
another group's in te re sts, i t is perhaps the most v isib le symbol (righ tly
or wrongly) of the posture and a c c e ssib ility of lo cal governments toward
their various constituencies.

Thus, the c re d ib ility of lo cal governments

frequently rests heavily on c itiz e n s ' b e lie fs about the acquisition of
ju s tic e in their communities.
Recently in San Jose, an unarmed black m
an (a long-term professional
employee of IBM) was shot and k ille d by police in connection with a
t r a ff i c v io la tio n .

The controversy that has followed is a perfect

example o f what we are talking about, and the incident w ill be an important
one for us to study — not with an eye to placing blame, but to analyze one
of the standard problems of urban government today — the maintenance of
cre d ib ility where con flictin g group in te re sts, h o stile group stereotypes,
and in stitu tio n a l constraints are unpleasant but real parts of the so cia l
environment.

FURTH
ER RESEARCH O SOCIAL P O
N
R BLEM
S
The analysis that we have done this far of San Jose and Santa Clara
County indicates the direction of our next analytical steps.

For example,

we want to find out whether there are "leading indicators’* that would pre­
dict the direction of change in a tract over time.

That i s , when a certain

percentage of households f a l l under a given income, might that precede
a marked acceleration in the incidence of crowding; is there some
sequential pattern of change?




218
-6 2 -

Table 5
PERCEN O ARRESTS ACCO N
T F
U TED FO B
R Y
DIFFERENT AGE GROUPS, 1965

Persons
11-17
Criminal Homicide

Persons
18-24

Persons
25 and over

8.4

26.4

65.1

Forcible Rape

19.8

44. 6

35.6

Robbery

28.0

39.5

31.4

Aggravated Assault

14.2

26.5

58.7

Burglary

47.7

29.0

19.7

Larceny (includes
under $50)

49.2

21.9

24.3

Auto Theft

61.4

26.4

11.9

Source: This table is taken from The C hallenge o f Crime in a
F ree S o c ie t y (Washington, D .C .: U.S. Government Printing O ffice)
1967, p. 56.
B
y

Table 6
PERCENT DISTRIBUTIONS FO SELECTED AGES IN SANTA CLARA CO N
R
U TY
A D TH UNITED STATES, 1950, 1960, 1970
N
E

1950

1960

1970a
S.C.

U.S.

19.5

—

—

7.4

9 .2

9.3

6.7

6 .0

8 .8

8 .0

7.0

6.1

—

—

S.C.

U.S.

S.C.

U.S.

Total

23.9

22.9

20.7

15-19

6.8

7.1

7.0

20-24

8 .5

7.7

25-29

8.6

8 .1

^ e do not have the 25-29 age breaks from the 1970 Census.




219
-6 3 -

When data on ethnic distribution and median income become available
from the 1970 Census, we w ill group tracts in 1960 and 19 70 by a
Principal Components analysis using the same variables we have used for
the 1966 c la s s ific a tio n .

This should indicate which tracts have changed

locations during the decade along the economic component; major demographic
changes in tracts should appear through changed locations of tracts along
the household component.

Additionally, with data provided by the County,

we w ill be able to connect changes in tract characteristics with the age
of the tra c t.

This portion of the analysis can then be related to sh ifts

in tax revenues and service expenditures — and should provide a model
by which city and county planners can project future demands.
discussed further under P o l i c y , below.

This is

In a present time-frame, the

analysis should also highlight areas in which services lag behind popula­
tion needs.
Without the 1970 Census data on minority population and household
incomes, we have not yet been able to analyze in depth a central issue
of this study:

the relationship between general growth in the County and

economic mobility of the minority population.

Part of this problem can

be addressed by analyzing the 1966 Special Census tapes which we have
recently acquired from the County.

W w ill be running within-Censuse

tract cross-tabulations that w ill enable us to discover relationships
between the age, sex, educational attainment, labor force participation,
and ethnic a ffi lia t io n of household heads — and the income, s iz e , and
tenure of their households (on a tract by tract b a s i s ).

W w ill also
e

be able to make cross-sectio n al comparisons between differen t generations
of Mexican-Americans and Anglp-whites — on such measures as labor
force participation and educational attainment, for instance.
Then, with the 1970 Census data on income and ethnic d istrib u tion ,
we w ill be able to show economic changes in a reas heavily populated by
Mexican-Americans.

Once again, the fact that the data come by census tract

rather than individual household means that we w ill not be able to associate
these changes d irectly with the people in the areas, and unlike the case of the




220
-6 4 -

1966 census, we do not expect to be able to do w ithin-tract cross-tabu­
la tio n s.

Nonetheless, when individual mobility data by tract become

available from the 1970 Census, we w ill be able to draw some inferences
on whether changes in tracts represent primarily changes experienced
by the original residents, or whether they r e fle c t migration in and
out .o f the neighborhood.

Answering th is question is important to deter­

mining whether so cia l policy to cure the i l l s discussed above should be
applied on a geographical b asis.
Another issue important to explore, in any case, is the relation­
ship between intergenerational mobility and geographic m obility.

The

information we need is not so much what is happening to the adult resident
minority population, but whether younger in-migrants are moving up
economically and so c ia lly when they come to the area, and whether younger
adults leaving the area improve their incomes by so doing.
Communities need not be responsible for providing a l l the avenues
for upward mobility for their residents i f they make su ffic ie n t investments
in their earning potential (for example, educational attainment) to enable
them to move to better jobs*.elsewhere.

At the same time, a given com­

munity should be able to attract migrants with s k ills suited to the
lo c a l job market.

Santa Clara County has been able to provide upward

njobility for i t s Anglo-white in-migrants.

W do not yet know whether i t
e

has been able to upgrade and export the sons and daughters of i t s lower
i ncome groups, either Mexican-American or Anglo-white.

Nor do we know

anything about Mexican-American (or Mexican) in-migrants.
These questions cannot be answered by o f f i c i a l data alone.
can best be answered by a survey.

They

This survey was discussed above in

connection with determining attitudes concerning "qu ality of l i f e . "
The survey instrument w ill allow us to compare both the intergenerational
and geographic mobility of Mexican-Americans and Anglo-whites at a ll
socioeconomic le v e ls.

Data w ill be so arranged that we can relate the

findings to tract c lu sters; city o ffic ia ls must know not only what
phenomena are taking place among the minority and majority populations,
but also where they are taking place.

I t is possible, for instance,

that some school d istr ic ts invest more than other school d is tr ic ts in
the education of the minority students they serve (even when incomes are




221
-6 5 -

held constant).

To know only that some minority students achieve higher

educational levels than other minority students w ill not be nearly so
useful for policy as knowing w here the differences are occurring.
This methodology is perhaps even more important for the discussion
of our findings from the second major portion of the survey, which w ill
concern i t s e l f with population preferences regarding environmental l i f e
s t y le .

For example, i f some groups of residents prefer open space

surrounding smaller residences to larger residences with smaller amounts
of open space, planners need — once again — to know where those people
are presently located as well as what i t is they prefer.
In i t s lower income areas, Santa Clara County seems to be poised
on a threshold from which i t could either descend into the whole range
of national urban problems, or from which i t could move forward by drawing
i t s less favored population groups into the economic mainstream.

By

defining the so cia l and economic changes of minority and majority residents
over time, by b etter identifying the circumstances surrounding those
changes, by relatin g the problems of low income areas to the complex
patterns of economic growth (including trade o ffs between tax revenues
and service expenditures), we hope to provide both the data and the
conceptual framework that w ill make i t possible to make the next move­
ment an upward one.

81-745 O - 72 - pt. 1 --1 5




222
-

IV.

66 -

POLICY IMPLICATIONS

LEVELS A D TYPES O POLICY ASSISTANCE
N
F
Most of the above has been concerned with the problem s of San Jose
and Santa Clara County; p o l i c i e s — attempts to avoid, solve, or meliorate
the problems — have been le f t largely im p lic it.

In accord with our

general method of identifyin g, structuring, and analyzing problems, and
projecting them into the future as baselines against which to measure
the d iffe re n tia l impact of changed p o lic ie s , we have begun with problem
analysis as a prelude to systematic investigation of policy options.
This report covers the f i r s t four months of a projected one-year study;
we are ju st now turning to e x p lic it analysis of policy.
There has begun to emerge from the f i r s t part of the work a structure
for examining p o licy, an i n i t i a l set of policy hypotheses.
to policy is a r e la tiv ely untrammeled one.

Our approach

It has been understood from

the beginning, by our lo cal sponsors, by the National Science Foundation
which has provided the planning grant under which the study has thus far
been funded, and by ourselves, that we were to be res p o n s iv e to local
o f f i c i a l s without being r e s p o n s ib le to them.

This has meant that, although

we have been working very closely with o ffi c i a ls of both the City of San
Jose and Santa Clara County, there has been no feelin g on either side
that we should keep our analysis close to their immediate operational
needs.

They have recognized the importance of our examination of policy

at a ll ju risd ictio n a l le v e ls , from national to lo c a l.

We, in turn, have

stressed that detailed lo cal understanding is the key to our attempts to
a ffe c t national p o licy; and we have recognized throughout that the price
of our ticket of admission to local areas must be real a ssistan ce.*
W have thus begun to examine policy at the three ju risd ictio n a l
e
le v e ls — national, sta te , and lo c a l.
been working in two direction s:

At the national le v e l, we have

examining the implications for future

See a lso , the companion pifece to this paper, Rand Urban P o lic y
Program: S tra teg y f o r S e le c t io n o f C i t i e s and F i r s t Year Plan> Rand
Corporation Working Note WN-7658, October 1971.




223
-6 7 -

national problems of some of the things we have been finding out in San
Jose; and analyzing the very strong constraints and pressures put on
lo cal decision-making by current national p o licies and programs, partic­
ularly p o licies not ordinarily thought of as "urban."

Sim ilarly, we

have begun to investigate the controls over local policy imposed by the
State of C alifornia.
At the lo cal le v e l, where our immediate assistance is most important,
we have begun to provide o f f i c i a l s of San Jose and of Santa Clara County
with fiv e types of policy assistance:
1. Arguments to use at various governmental levels and with various
constituencies.

A major policy output of our early finding on the

strength of the pressures imposed on local policy by National and State
Policy is the provision to lo cal policymakers of arguments for action at
these higher le ve ls to change some of the pressures.

Sim ilarly, analysis

lik e that presented above, concerning the area’ s economic dependence
upon growth, provides lo cal o ffi c i a ls with arguments to use with those
constituencies who may lean in the direction of trying to stop growth
completely; on the other sid e , analysis of the negative e ffe c ts of growth
on sprawl and quality of l i f e w ill provide arguments to use with con­
stitu en cies of "b o o s te r s ."

Local o ffi c i a ls are frequently caught in the

middle of such constituencies; our analysis may help them temper the
extreme arguments on both sides.
2. Analysis of public views.

Policymakers want the views of their

constituents as guides to policy choices.

Attitudinal surveys are

frequently taken in Santa Clara County, as elsewhere; in addition to
the Environmental Attitudes Study

referred to above, regular surveys

are taken on questions of public in te re st.

Such surveys are u sefu l,

but they suffer because they are disconnected from policy issues in
the form these issues must be handled.

The Environmental Attitudes

Survey, for example, showed that preservation of the environment is
desired by most of the electorate, not ju st by the upper middle c la ss.
But the real policy question is how the public weighs the balance between
environment and other values — .how, for example, differen t segments of
the public would opt on the tradeoffs between the costs and benefits of
growth discussed above.




Surveys such as the one we intend to mount,

224
-

68-

connected closely with ongoing analysis of policy issu es, should
answer such questions.
3. Assistance to other ongoing analytical programs.

The analysis

reported here is only one of a number of p a rallel e ffo r ts being carried
out in Santa Clara County.

W have been a ssistin g County planners in
e

their use of the County/IBM model referred to above; more recently we
have been aiding San Jose City planners to construct a p a rallel program
with IBM.

In addition, San Jose has recently been awarded a planning

grant by the Economic Development Administration, for a two-year program
to determine future directions for economic growth
such growth.

and how to achieve

This d iffe rs from, but f i t s very neatly with, our analysis,

which is concerned primarily with the e f f e c t s of growth ( or lack of
growth).

W expect to work closely with the City on the design of this
e

EDA program.
4. Development of analytical tools for policy assistance.

The

models we build and use in this study — for example, the one with which
we have tested the growth-dependence and stable prosperity hypotheses
on Santa Clara’ s economy — are conceptual models, useful in their
current form primarily for the insights they bring to the structure and
magnitude of problems.

With l i t t l e additional e ffo r t, however, they can

be developed into tools with which lo cal planners can examine the e ffe c ts
of sp e cific policy options on an ongoing b asis.

The growth-dependence

model, for example, can be developed to show the implications of differen t
sp e c ific kinds of economic change for the local economy and thus help
with policy decisions on differen t kinds of growth*

Development of such

an operational growth model may be one result of our work with the City/IBM
e ffo r t.

Indeed, the current County/IBM model of diffusion of population

in the area provides an example of a model designed to bear on sp e c ific
operational decisions.

The conceptual basis for this model is s t i l l

rather meager, however; our e ffo r ts may help to improve i t .

A third

example is the conceptual model discussed below for estimating the long-run
cost of new residential development; this w ill be designed with a view
to turning i t into an operational tool for the c ity .




225
-6 9 -

5.

Analysis of sp e c ific policy options.

The most important policy

assistance, of course, is in the design and analysis of policy options.
This is discussed in d e ta il below under Hypotheses for State and Local
P o lic y »

POLICY H
YPOTHESES
W discuss below a sample of the policy hypotheses we intend to
e
examine.

Perhaps the most important hypothesis is the f i r s t :

of policy space for lo cal decision-makers.

the lack

This sets the context for

analysis of policy at the three ju risd ictio n a l levels — national, sta te ,
and lo c a l.

Under the heading of national p o licy, we discuss some long-

range implications of San Jose’ s growth dilemma, the impact of Federal
tax p o lic y , and the e ffe c ts of Federal housing p o lic ie s.

State and

lo cal p o lic ie s are treated together; a crucial point is that lo c a lit ie s
are creatures of the s ta te , and lo cal p o lic ies are what the state says
they can be.

Not yet taken up e x p lic itly (with one p a rtia l exception —

housing) are the p o lic ies at various ju risd ic tio n a l levels designed
to attack the so cia l problems discussed above.

Our analysis of social

problems is only now reaching a point where we can consider policy a lte r ­
n atives; some of the more important of these, lik e the Family Assistance
Plan, w ill involve the Federal le v e l, but many w ill be lo c a l, depending
on matters lik e the lo cal willingness to desegregate, and the lo cal
capability to change r e stric tiv e zoning.

The Lack of Policy Space for Local Decision-Makers
San Jose/Santa Clara has often been treated by urban analysts as
a prime example of lo cal policy — on matters like zoning and annexation —
gone wild leading to intolerable urban and suburban sprawl.

The notion

that sprawl and associated problems in San Jose/Santa Clara have been
caused primarily by p o lit ic a l and bureaucratic factors was a major
theme emphasized most recently in the Nader report on Power and Land in
California. *
*

The policy thesis beginning to emerge from our study,

op. e v t.




226
-7 0 however, is that while lo cal po licies of this nature can be important
in adapting to the kind of change that has taken place in San Jose and
Santa Clara County, such changes have been induced in the fi r s t instance
by powerful forces not under local control.

Thus, the policy space

available for local discretion is much narrower than is commonly under­
stood.

(And to be f a i r , the Nader report has some of this fla v o r,

pointing out that change of state law is a necessary condition precedent
to lo cal action.

Nonetheless, the report does lay blame heavily on

lo c a l a u th oritie s.)
The f i r s t reason for our b e lie f in this policy finding of tight
constraints on local authority is that the growth of Santa Clara
County over the la st two decades has not been caused by such local
attractions to growth as sewers and municipal services (policy matters
that have formed the core of so much analysis of the area).

Rather, it

has been massive economic development, primarily in aerospace and
related electronic f i e ld s , that has generated the expansion of population,
the occupation of open space, and the bulldozing of the orchards that
characterized Santa Clara in 1950.

Local policy has l i t t l e to do with

th is growth; the relevant p o licies were federal.

In recent years,

Federal expenditures in Santa Clara County, primarily m ilitary contracts,
have varied from le ss than $200 m illion to $300 m illio n , figures whose
size is from 10 to 20 percent of economic a ctiv ity in the County, and
whose year-to-year variation by more than 50 percent is bound to be
economically d e sta b ilizin g .*
Even within the realm of adaptation to such external economic fo rces,
however, the a b ility of local authorities to control their adaptation
may be substantially less than has been recognized.

One point that is

frequently made — particularly by mayors and county supervisors — is
the d iffic u lt y of raising money in urban ju risd ic tio n s.

In fa c t, Santa

Clara and San Jose have been exceptional in that this has not been a
major problem (because of their rapid growth); nonetheless, their
options have been highly constrained.

For one thing — and this is

pointed out in the Nader report — zoning, annexation, and — particularly

Federal Information Exchange System Reports




227
-71-

important — lo c a l property tax policy are structured by the state with
only sp ecific discretion on individual decisions and tax rates (within
a range) l e f t to local o f f i c i a l s .

Given that such devices were used badly

in Santa Clara County for up to two decades, i t would have been
d if fic u lt to use them very w ell.
Even more important, again, is federal p o licy.

For example, one of

the causes assigned for the lack of lo cal power by some of the bureau­
cratic analyses of Santa Clara County has been the "Balkanization"
of local ju r isd ic tio n s, which has allowed land developers to play one
ju risd ictio n o ff against the others.
ex ists and is not t r i v i a l.

This Balkanization certainly

But as one city planner pointed out to us,

what happens in a rezoning hearing on a sp e c ific parcel is that one
developer comes into the City Council backed up by twenty other developers
and the p o lit ic a l pressure becomes extremely d i f fi c u lt to r e s is t.

The

next time, of course, one of the other twenty comes in with the same
backing, and this same process is repeated at every relevant ju risd ictio n a l
le ve l throughout the county.

In the case of zoning, then, apparent

Balkanization becomes actual unification through economically induced
p o lit ic a l pressure.

Rationalized ju risd ictio n s might make l i t t l e

difference, and in practical ways the local authorities are more
lim ited in their power than i t appears.
The Federal contribution to this pressure is major, even though
i t does not appear on the surface.

It stems from the fact that these

economically induced p o lit ic a l pressures are based in large measure
upon the incentives b u ilt up by federal tax policy.

Some of the d eta ils

of these tax law provisions and their e ffe c ts are provided below.

This

analysis is not intended to be a critique of the entire federal tax system.
There may be very good reasons for provisions of the sort that encourage
the kind of speculation that has taken place in Santa Clara County.
The point i s , however, that these pressures are induced in large
measure by federal tax law and other p o lic ie s , and they do constrain
even further the a b ility of lo cal governments to control something lik e
urban sprawl.




228
-7 2 -

In general then, the hypotheses discussed below on policy at each
ju risd ic tio n a l level must be analyzed in terms of th6 rela tiv e leverage
of policy at each le v e l.

And our fi r s t hypothesis is that federal

leverage — exerted in part inadvertently — is so great that local
policy has much le ss play than is ordinarily realized.

National P olicies
The la st section indicated the importance of policy at the national
le v e l as i t a ffe c ts the sp ecific concerns of San Jose.

This section

provides three examples of national p o lic ies whose implications we intend
to pursue.

The examples are quite d ifferen t from one another.

The

f i r s t brings out some implications f o r long-run national policy and
for the "national philosophy" of San Jose’ s growth dilemma — an
illu s tr a tio n of the increasing national debate over "production for
what?"

The second example provides sp e c ific backup for one of the

central points made above concerning the pressures on lo cal policy­
making that stem from inadvertent national urban policy — in this
case, the pressures created by Federal Income Tax p olicy.

And the

third goes into a portion of what is conventionally thought of as urban
policy — the e ffe c ts (or lack of e ffe c ts) of national housing policy
on San Joee and Santa Clara County.
1.

The Long Run:

Production for what?

The growth dilemma of

San Jose and Santa Clara County is a microcosm of the increasing
national dilemma over economy versus ecology.

I t is a magnified microcosm

because the rapidity of growth in the Santa Clara Valley has in two
decades brought change the equivalent of that which has taken place
over ten or more decades in older urban areas.
San Jose must grow rapidly to prosper economically; although
better lo cal p o lic ies than have been pursued in the past can lead to
better absorption of growth, i t remains generally true that continued
rapid growth w ill mean continued degradation of the environment and
quality of l i f e .

That this is a. dilemma is beginning to be recognized

by policy o ffi c i a ls in San Jose; that is why we are there.




O a national
n

229
-7 3 -

le v e l, however, both sides of the dilemma are recognized as policy
problems, but i t is seldom recognized that together they do in fact
present a dilemma.

Economic growth is taken as an unqualified b en efit.

Consider the following two statements:
F ir s t, we share the b e lie f of the American people
in the principle of growth.
(President's Materials
Policy Commission, R esou rces f o r Freedom , Summary,
p. 4, Washington, U.S. Government Printing O ffic e ,
June 1952.)
The time has come for American industry, which has
produced more jobs at higher real wages than any
other industrial system in h isto ry, to embark on a
bold program of new investment in production for
peace.
(From the text of President Nixon’ s radio­
television address, August 16, 1971, Los Angeles
Times.)
These two statements — made nearly twenty years apart — typify
what nearly every American (or human, for that matter) accepts almost
without question.

Economic growth is desirable as an end in i t s e l f .

Yet the d e sira b ility of economic growth as an end has become a major
controversial issue of public policy.

It is argued that this desire

for growth is based less on a real "need" for additional goods than
i t is on a "need" for high production and growth because as in Santa
Clara County, they create jo b s.

As the quotation from the

President’ s address im plies, we suffer i f industry f a i ls to provide
enough jo b s.

Yet, even during periods of v ir tu a lly f u l l employment, the

economy has never (except for a b rief period during World War II ) created
enough jobs to enable every family to liv e in decent comfort.

Even in

1967, when production for the war in Vietnam was near i t s peak, there
were over 26 m illion people livin g in poverty.
number was, of course, much higher.

In earlier years th is

W have relied on rapid growth —
e

usually resulting from wartime expenditures — to bring people over the
*
poverty lin e and to achieve some redistribution of income.

You:

See, for example, Robert A. Levine, Tine P oor Ye Need Not Have With
L essons from th e War on P o v e r ty y (Cambridge: MIT Press, 1970), p. 95.




230
-7 4 -

It is only in quite recent years that a few economists taking up the
concerns of the environmentalists (who, under the pseudonym of "conser­
v a tio n is ts " have been around for quite a w h ile ), have begun to contend
that growth cannot go on forever.

This changing view is well-characterized

by Kenneth Boulding in his discussion of the difference between the
"cowboy economy" we have been liv in g in , and the "spaceman economy" that
Boulding fe e ls we must move to in order to avoid depletion of resources
and degradation of our environment.

In the cowboy economy, economic

success is determined by the rate at which the factors of production are
consumed in production, e . g . , by f u l l employment of labor.

In the

spaceman economy, on the other hand, throughput of the factors of production
is not the desired end — rather use of productive factors is something
to be minim ized rather than maximized.
objective is the maintenance

In the spaceman economy the

of a stock of wealth, and anything that

can be done to reduce the throughput of the factors in maintaining that
stock is regarded as a gain .**
In the "cowboy" economy, technology can easily be cast as a
v il la i n .

One of the key relationships in our growth-dependence model

of Santa Clara County’ s economy was that which showed the need to produce
ever more to maintain even a constant number of jobs in High Technology
industries.

H much simpler l i f e would be without annual increases in
ow

productivity to make f u l l employment more d if fic u lt to achieve.

The

nineteenth century Luddites discovered th is , and tried to break the
machines.
The real d if fic u lt y , of course, lie s not with technology, but
with goals and in stitu tio n s.

Increasing productivity is needed because

increasing production is needed — needed for the individual goal of
being m aterially better o ff year after year; needed for the s o c ia l/
p o lit ic a l goal of improving the lo t of those at the lower end of the

See Bouldings' "The Economics of the Coming Spaceship Earth"
in Environmental Q u a lity in a Growing Economy, Henry Jarrett (e d .),
The Johns Hopkins Press, 1966.




231
-7 5 -

income distribution without substantially hurting
end.

those at the upper

And f u l l employment is needed because employment is the only

"d ig n ifie d ” way for individuals to gain income.
It takes a set of Utopian suppositions to move to the "spaceman"
economy in which, i f economics and ecology cannot be reconciled, at
least their c o n flic t can be minimized.

Suppose that:

— individuals were to value le ss highly annual material
improvement, so that increases in productivity could be trans­
lated into more leisu re instead of more production;
— redistribution of income from the b e tte r -o ff to the
w orse-off became more fe a s ib le , so that the poor could be helped
without special increments of new production;
— with liv in g standards supported by a system of so cia l
insurance and income guarantees, f u l l employment became no longer
a superordinate goal for a healthy economy.
Were these to come to pass (and their Utopianism can be measured
by the fa ct that there is no way to discuss the path from here to there
except by using the B ib lica l phrase, "come to pass") then the overemploy­
ment of resources, environment, and space that goes hand-in-hand with
f u l l employment of labor might be d ra stic a lly reduced.
might then resume a heroic ro le .

Technology

Substitution of innovated durability

for planned obsolescence in automobiles, for example, could reduce
depletion of resources without the worry of throwing auto-workers out
of jo b s.

And technology could be used to produce more output for a

given input of depletable resources — either by reducing a ll inputs
per unit of production, or by sh iftin g to labor-intensive production, as
compared to resource-intensive methods.

(This d iffe rs from the comparison

between labor-intensive and cap ital-in ten sive production.

For this

purpose, capital should be considered the embodiment of depletable factors
of production lik e raw m aterial, space, a ir , water, and beauty, and of
non-depletable factors lik e labor, time, and technology.)
A ll th is , of course, is a construct.

Whether or not we are near

a stage of overwhelming need to carry out this reconciliation of




232
-7 6 -

economy, in s titu tio n s, environment, and technology, we are nowhere
near a capability to do so.

In Santa Clara County, however, the coming

shadow of the national problem can be clearly seen.

Given current assump­

tio n s, Santa Clara needs growth more rapid than the national rate;
Santa Clara is also rapidly depleting at least the resources of space
and beauty.

Because neither in stitu tio n s nor technology in San Jose

can adapt by themselves, i t seems possible that the resolution of the
dilemma w ill l i e in part (and involuntarily) in less than f u l l employ­
ment, in le ss than maximum individual material improvement,* and in
le ss attention than should be paid to the so cia l problems at the bottom
of the income scale (insofar as these problems are treated with local
resources). Such proposals as the Family Assistance Plan would reduce
the need for lo cal resources devoted to welfare payments — an important
argument in favor of such nationalization of certain p o lic ie s .)
Santa Clara County does have one safety valve not available to
the nation-, however — migration.

Our models showed that under some

assumptions, parts of San Jose's population would quickly respond to a
slowdown of economic growth by migrating out; under a ll assumptions
this would be the response to an actual economic downturn.
there is more time — because in spite of the alarms

N ationally,

of the extreme

environmentalists, no resource, not even a ir , is in as short supply
nationally as is open space in San Jose — but there is no safety
valve.

Zero Population Growth

(with national headquarters in Santa

Clara County, in ciden tally) would not s u ffic e .

Santa Clara's safety

valve under our assumptions of economic downturn was on the order of
2 -3

percent population reduction per annum through out-migration, and

i t is d i f fi c u lt to foresee a natural decline in U.S. population at a
rate anywhere near th is.
The national solution w ill have to be one that moves toward the
Utopian assumptions lis te d above.

Time — perhaps considerable time —

is available for such a move, but that is the direction.
2.

Current Pressures:

The Federal Income Tax.

As our early

researches began to develop the hypothesis discussed above concerning




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the pressures and constraints imposed on lo cal decision-making by
national p o lic ie s , i t became clear that one area of national policy needing
further analysis was the role of Federal tax policy in creating such
pressures.

The e ffe c ts of these pressures are lik e ly to d iffe r from

area to area — in Santa Clara County they encourage land speculation,
in Eastern c i t i e s , they have been instrumental in causing housing
deterioration.*
A major focus of our policy e ffo r t w ill be to d eta il and quantify
the sp e c ific e ffe c ts of Federal tax policy on land speculation and
related phenomena in Santa Clara County.

As a beginning, we have

taken from the litera tu re the tax provisions that seem relevant to
speculation, and have carried out i n i t i a l crude quantitative analysis
of the order of magnitude of the tax pressures on land speculation in
the County.

This turns out to be quite large.

The existing economic literatu re on such incentives for speculation
is surprisingly thin.

Much more has been written concerning tax

incentives to development and perpetuation of slums than on the corresponding
incentives for the kind of jumbled urban development that characterizes
San Jose and Santa Clara County.

The dearth of literatu re is apparently

due in part to a lag of analysis behind

fads; the tax/slum analysis

stems from a period when congested c it ie s were at the center of national
atten tion , a period before the in terest in ecology made the urbanization
of the countryside a popular public issue.

The two analytical works used

here are both concerned more with slums than with sprawl, but each
has some material that bears on the sprawl question.
Aaron, D ecen t Homes:

They are Henry

A Review o f F ed era l Housing P o lic y j* * and The

National Commission on Urban Problems, The F ederal Income Tax in
R ela tio n t o Housing (R esearch R ep ort #5)^***

which was prepared by

Richard S lito r ,
_

On this la tte r point, see, for example, National Commission on Urban
Problems Research Report No. 5, The F ed era l Income Tax in R e la tio n to
Housing> (Washington: U.S. Government Printing O ffic e , 1968), prepared
by Richard E. S lito r .
Brookings In stitu tio n , mimeographed, October 1970.
***

op. o v t.




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Looking f i r s t at the relevant portions of the federal income tax,
the literatu re stresses the economic effe c ts of the tax break given to
home owners by deduction of mortgage interest and related payments.
This is strongly related to equity and to the so cia l questions of home
ownership; i t is somewhat less related to land'and building speculation.
Certainly the tax incentives, together with a ll the other pressures for
home ownership, set up an ownership market which helps encourage speculation
in residen tial subdivisions.

This is part of the atmosphere surrounding

such speculation and sprawl, but sprawl might take another form in any
case.

More direct economic incentives for speculation and sprawl are

set by a number of other tax provisions.

Some of these relate both to

land-holding speculation and speculation in new building; some relate
only to speculation in new building.

In any case, they come together to

form a very strong economic incentive for such speculation.

The major

ones include:
a.

The capital gains treatment
and buildings.

for increases in value of land

Although any small or large holder with

appreciating property gets an advantage from this treatment,
the major economic effe c ts stem from the fact that the large
corporate or individual speculator gets his tax li a b i li t y on
the gain reduced from the 50% (or, possibly in the case of
the individual, more) i t would be taxed as straight income,
to a maximum of 25%.

The capital gains advantage applies to

both land speculation and new b uilding.
b.

Postponement of taxes by the real estate investor.

According

to S lito r :




There is a wide range of opportunities for post­
poning even capital gains tax as the investor’ s
equity increases:
o

By exchanging the property for a larger piece
of property with no current tax (a process which
can be repeated through a series of successive
exchanges).

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-7 9 -

o

By refinancing the property so as to withdraw
cash without tax.

o

By reinvesting gain on the receipt of insurance
proceeds in the case of casualty loss or on the
receipt of condemnation proceeds in the case of
involuntary conversion of the property for pub­
l i c use.

o

By holding properties throughout the in vesto r's
lifetim e so that the unrealized appreciation may
be capitalized through the tax -free step-up of
basis to fa ir market value at the time of the owner's
death.

In e f fe c t , this revaluation can restore

a l l the depreciation which the owner may have deducted
during his life t im e .*
This la s t p o s s ib ilit y , postponement u n til death, applies, of
course, only to individuals and not to corporations.

In general,

however, these postponement p o s s ib ilit ie s can be worked with
both land speculation and new building.
c.

The high income taxpayer, including the corporation, can deduct
the current costs of maintaining the property, including local
property taxes, at very l i t t l e cost to himself because of his
high bracket.

This applies both to land speculation and new

building, although more strongly to new building.
d.

The real estate speculator can make major gains by prepaying
interest on his investment.
building.

e.

This applies both to land and

This tax break has been reduced by the 1969 law.

The builder, in particular, can obtain major tax savings by
depreciating his structures down to zero tax value at an
accelerated rate ( i f he holds and rents his buildings) and then
se llin g them at their true value at much more than zero.

This

provision, which was modified somewhat by the 1969 law, is most
important not in regard to the San Jose sprawl problem, but in
i t s e ffe c ts on slum property turned over from owner to owner

i b i d . j pp. 16-17.




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with each owner establishing a new tax basis at his purchase
p rice.

It is relevant to San Jose and Santa Clara in two

ways, however.

F ir s t, so -ca lled raw land in Santa Clara

frequently is planted to orchards or vineyards.

These valuable

assets are depreciated by the speculator while he holds the
land.

And second, although residen tial development is sold

new, with the builder not getting much depreciation tax gain
on the houses, another important part of speculation and sprawl
involves business development.

In San Jose this means immense

shopping centers, among other things, and the depreciation
provisions provide important incentives here.
As a result of a l l these provisions, S lito r suggests that:
. . . the federal income tax structure . . . has on
balance up to the present been a factor encouraging
low-density rather than high-density residential
development (although a substantial potential ex ists
for i t s exerting a favorable influence on high-density
development through cooperative type apartment con­
struction) . *
In San Jose at le a s t , substantial cooperative type apartment
construction has not taken place, and the Federal income tax has had
a clear and strong e ffe c t in encouraging speculation and low density sprawl.
W have carried out a very rough calculation of the magnitude of
e
the capital gains treatment alone in Santa Clara County, and the results
provide a striking illu s tr a tio n of the importance of tax incentives.
In the nineteen-year period from 1949 to 1968, the market value
of a ll property in Santa Clara County increased from about $1.1 b illio n
to about $9.3 b i lli o n , an $8 b i lli o n , or e ig h t-fo ld , increase.**

Land

values alone went from $320 m illion to $2.6 b illio n — an increase of
$2.3 b illio n or, again, roughly e ig h t-fo ld .

Much of the to ta l property

increase, of course, stemmed from the real costs of building new structures
***
(which we do not count as a speculative increase) # and both
* i b i d . 3 p. 20.
The figures in th is calculation are in current d o lla rs, since
in fla tio n is an important part of cap ital gains.
***Because structures are b u ilt on speculation and appreciate in value
lik e land, some portion of structure values at any given time w ill have
been speculative in the same way as land values. The data, however,
do not enable us to partition structure values between i n i t i a l values
and speculative increases.




237
- 8 1 -

to ta l value and land-alone increases include value gains on
small holdings.

But an informed ( i f rough) estimate is that

the average increase in the value of a holding from the time a land
speculator (or a wise orchard operator) begins holding for increase
to the time when newly constructed structures are sold o ff to owners
for use, is three- to fo u r -fo ld .

Such a speculative increase seems

plausible — perhaps conservative* — rela tiv e to the overall eig h t-fo ld
increase in nineteen years, so we applied a gain factor of three to the
i n i t i a l 1949 bases of $1.1 b illio n for a l l property and $320 m illion
for land, and came up with "speculative gains" over the period of $312
b illio n for a l l property and roughly one b illio n for land.

Since we

cut the to ta l increase by more than half to try to identify "tr u e "
speculation, i t then seemed reasonable to apply high-bracket capital
gains savings to this portion of the increase.

Doing so at a 25 percent

savings rate (50 percent corporate or high-bracket individual income
tax rate minus 25 percent capital gains tax maximum) leads to capital
gains savings over the years of $800 m illion for a ll property and
$250 m illion for land.

And this in turn produces annual averages over

the nineteen years of $42 m illion for a ll property and $13 m illion
for land.
I t is not clear which is the more appropriate figure ($42 m illion
or $13 m illion) to consider as the capital-gains incentive for speculation.
Such speculation is undoubtedly based on increase in the value of
structures as well as increase in the value of land, but even given our
attempt to cut out non-speculative gains, some of the structure-value
increases may s t i l l be real rather than speculative.

What is clear,

Indeed, i t may be very conservative. A. Alan Schmid, in C on vertin g
Land from Urban to Rural Uses> (Washington: Resources for the Future, In c .,
1968), presents estimates of the appreciation of sp e cific parcels of land,
which go as high as fo r ty -fo ld in Santa Clara City (Table A -3 ) . The
basis is differen t from the county-wide average used here, and estimates
lik e th is are d if fic u lt to make consistent with an overall property
value increase of only e ig h t-fo ld . But Schmid's figures also suggest
that appreciation of Santa Clara property changing from farm to residen tial
uses is about twice the national average, which might make a general threeto fo u r-fo ld increase conservative even on the average.

81-745 O - 72 - pt. 1 --1 6




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-8 2 -

however, is the substantial size of even the lower — $13 m illion —
fig u re , as an annual incentive.

To calibrate i t , the to ta l H D moneys
U

flowing into Santa Clara County in 1969, a recent year for which data
are availab le, were $5.4 m illio n s.*

(The $5.4 m illion excludes FHA

and other mortgage insurance which, fi r s t of a ll is a guarantee not a
cash inflow, and, * second of a l l , provides another major Federal incentive
for development, in i t s own r ig h t.)

The $13-42 m illion and the $5.4

m illion figures are, of course, not d irectly comparable, but the H D
U
expenditure s t a t is t ic does indicate that the capital-gains incentives
are lik e ly to have more e ffe c t — perhaps much more i f the $42 m illion
figure is nearer right than the lower one — than a ll the ex p lic it Federal
urban e ffo r ts in the county.

And this takes no account of tax postponement,

cost deduction, interest prepayment, or accelerated depreciation.
The important question — in addition to that of the equity of
special treatment — is the economic e ffe c t of this treatment on urban
sprawl.

The capital gains treatment, of course, a ffe c ts a ll investment,

but the special gain from pure speculative holding applies mainly to real
esta te .

Together with the other provisions, this constitutes the well

known "r e a l estate tax s h e lte r ."

The importance of this issue of tax

incentives and urban growth — i t may be the single most important issue
of federal policy with regard to San Jose — means that we are going
to be putting substantial e ffo r t into analysis of sp ecific tax effe c ts
over the next several months:

what are the implications for the area of

$13-42 m illion plus a ll the other Federal (and state and lo c a l) tax
incentives?
with

The i n i t i a l rough calculation set forth above, together

the substantial lack of relevant national or local analysis,

gives this a very high p rio rity .
3.

E xplicit Urban P olicy:

Housing.

I f the Federal income tax is

only inadvertently an urban p o lic y , housing policy is quite e x p lic itly
urban.

W have noted that housing for the low income population of
e

Santa Clara County is not sa tisfa c to ry .
*

W have also noted that the
e

Federal Information Exchange Survice Report, op. a^ t.




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-8 3 -

impact of Federal housing expenditures seems to be substantially
smaller than the impact of Federal income tax breaks.
E xplicit Federal housing p o lic y , in fa c t, comes in three parts.
One part, mortgage insurance under the FH and VA has been a massive
A
influence on the development of Santa Clara County, as i t has been
on suburban development throughout the United States since the second
World War.

Most of the support has gone to la rg e-scale development of

tract houses, a major factor in the housing and land boom in the County.
In recent years such support has run between $100 and $200 m illion a
year.*

W intend to make estimates of the e ffe c ts of these programs
e

on the growth of the County and of San Jose, p a rallel to our estimates
of the e ffe c ts of tax p olicy.

Our i n i t i a l concentration, however,

has been on the current so cia l problem of the dearth of low income
housing; FH and VA have always divorced themselves from such problems
A
(and thus helped exacerbate them) .

The second segment of housing policy —

far smaller and le ss powerful than FHA/VA — is that which has been
e x p lic itly concerned with low income housing in one way or another.
This forms the bulk of the $5 m illion a year in actual H D expenditures
U
going to the County.

The third part of the policy — more recent —

has been the attempt to promote racial and economic desegregation, using
laws and regulations rather than,

d o lla rs.

Looking f i r s t at low-income housing programs, the picture in
the County has been one of in su fficien cy .

The major Federal programs

that may be used to f a c ilit a t e the provision of housing for low and
moderate income fam ilies in Santa Clara County include:

the Section

235 Hom Ownership Program, the Section 236 Rental Housing Program,
e
and the Public Housing Program.
In the Section 235 Hom Ownership Program the Federal Government
e
contracts to pay that part of the homebuyer's mortgage payment represented
by the difference between the market interest rate, and a 1 percent
in terest rate.

Houses b u ilt under th is program are to be of modest but

adequate q u ality, and generally the mortgage cannot exceed $15,000.

Federal Information Service Exchange Report, op. a i t .




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However, in high-cost areas such as Santa Clara County, mortgages can
be as large as $24,000 for large fa m ilies.

Down payments must not

exceed 3 percent of the value of the house.
As of November 1970 there were 30 housing pro jects, comprising
599 subsidized u n its, either completed, under construction, or with
money reserved at FHA for the 235 program in Santa Clara County.
Compared with an estimated requirement for some 15,000 low cost housing
u n its, this number is in sig n ific a n t.

Yet i t indicates that builders

can be persuaded to construct low-cost housing i f financing can be
arranged.
The Section 236 Rental Housing Program r e lie s on private developers —
both nonprofit and pro fit-o rien ted — of rental housing.

The Federal

Government subsidizes the difference between 25 percent of the tenant's
income and market rents, with a maximum subsidy on a unit that lowers the
rent to the level that would be achieved had the project been financed
with a 1 percent mortgage.
maintenance c osts.

The basic rent of a 236 unit also includes

As of November 1970, there were sixteen Section 236

housing projects with a to ta l of 2184 units either completed, under
construction, or covered by a le tte r of fe a s ib ilit y .
Thus, the to ta l of fe d e ra lly -assiste d low-income housing units in the
County is 2783, not much of a leg up on the estimated requirement for
15,000 u n its.

This to ta l does not include units under the Public Housing

porgram; there are no units under the Public Housing Program.

A rtic le 34

of the California Constitution requires that determination of whether
a c ity or county can own public housing units must be made by referendum;
the United States Supreme Court recently upheld the Federal con stitu tion a lity
of this portion of the State C onstitution.*

And in San Jose and Santa

Clara, the electorate has approved no public housing.

Housing authorities

in the two ju risd ictio n s are applying for a to ta l of 4300 u n its, but
given the referendum requirement, their future is conjectural.

*James 7. V a ltie r r a , 402 U:S. 137, (1971).




241
-8 5 -

This brings up the fin a l aspect of Federal housing policy — the
legal e ffo r t to break down segregation of various types.

Nationally,

the Federal government has been particularly active in attempting to
knock down the use of r e stric tiv e zoning to preserve segregation, and
with more success than in the case of the Public Housing referendum.
The Federal government has not intervened in Santa Clara County, but
a parallel private su it is currently being pursued.

To date, public

support of discriminatory zoning regulations has continued to be an
e ffe c tiv e deterrent to residen tial desegregation in the northern portion
of the County, making school desegregation d if fic u lt as w ell.

A

Mexican-American group, the Confederacion de la Raza Unida, with some
lo c a l Anglo support,has applied for an injunction against such zoning
in the Northewestern section of the County.

The issue is s t i l l undecided,

but with the assistance of Federal policy and decisions in higher courts,
i t could ultim ately allow major changes in County residential patterns.
Beyond t h is , however, there seems to be a dim future for the
tradition al approach to low income housing in the County.

W have not
e

yet looked at certain other instruments of Federal housing p o licy, such
as the Below Market Interest Rate program (Section 221(d)3) or Rehabili­
tation Programs under Sections 115, 221(h), and 312, but they are
unlikely to make for major changes in the picture.
Our growth analysis suggests the p o s s ib ility of a new policy
a ltern a tiv e, however.

It may be that the chief hope for low-income

housing li e s in the chief fear of the County as a whole.

I f economic

growth slows down substantially and migration slows down or reverses
as a consequence, as is suggested by the growth-dependence model, then
there are lik e ly to be many unsold tract houses around the County.

It

has frequently been suggested that national low income housing programs
have been poorly conceived because for the most part they build new
housing for the poor, rather than encouraging a far more economical
process whereby those above the poverty le v e l upgrade their housing and
the Federal government enables low income fam ilies to move into and maintain
the decent housing l e f t behind. * To fa c i li t a t e th is , recommendations




242
-

86 -

have been made for "rent c e r t ific a t e s " which low-income fam ilies
could use to a ssist in the purchase of housing on the private market.*
A housing market made so ft by a slowdown of growth in Santa Clara County
might be an excellent test-bed for such a scheme.

Whether the rent

c e r tific a te s would be used to buy or rent unsold tract houses, or whether
the tract houses would be sold at a discount to middle-income buyers,
thus freeing up older homes, is not important.

What is important is

that this is a new Federal/local policy option that may be of substantial
value to San Jose and Santa Clara.

State and Local Policy
The influence of the State of California over local p o licy, while
perhaps as great as the Federal influence, is exerted in a differen t
way.

The Federal influence stems primarily from taxes and expenditures

and consequent incentives, only occasionally through rules about: what
the lo c a lity can and cannot do.

The Federal effo rt to remove zoning as

a tool for segregation is an example of the la tt e r , but i t is a rare
example.

Legally, however, the lo c a lity is a creature of the s ta te , and

lo cal ju risdiction s may do only what the state allows them to do.
For this reason, our i n i t i a l consideration is of state and lo cal policy
together; most of the policy tools in question, from regulation to
property taxation are manipulated by the lo c a lit ie s within constraints
imposed by the sta te.
W present here both a general discussion of some of the key issues in
e
state and local p o licy, and the outline of a sp ecific analytical project
the San Jose City Planner has asked us to work on.

Both the general

and the sp ecific analysis, of course, are being carried out in close
conjunction with City and County o f f i c i a l s , as are the other policy
assistance projects (presentation of arguments, preparation of other
analytical pro jects, e t c .) discussed above.
1. Issu es.

Our analysis is in two stages.

identify the systemic relationships that m ilita te

The f i r s t is to
against e ffe c tiv e lo cal

See Ira S. Lowry, Housing A ss is ta n c e f o r Low Income Urban 'F a m ilies:
A Fresh Approachs Rand Corporation paper P-4645, M 1971, which was
ay
prepared for the House of Representatives Committee on Banking and
Currency.




243
-8 7 -

land use control and to identify lo c a l points (in stitu tion s and laws),
as well as the national points discussed above, where leverage could be
exerted to change the system.

The second stage is to develop policy

recommendations for lo cal governments on how the available policy
instruments could be used more e ffe c tiv e ly within the existing system
of relationships.

Supporting research w ill center on questions of what

ought to be done; i . e . , on substantive policy recommendations in the
areas of land use, low income housing, residen tial desegregation, and
control of rates of growth.
H isto rica lly and currently, lo c a l policy instruments have not
been used e ffe c tiv e ly for control over lo c a l events in Santa Clara
County.

Our analysis thus far indicates that a major reason for this

has been the set of constraints and pressures imposed by Federal and
state p o lic ie s .

Nonetheless, i t remains true that a broad array of

lega l powers and policy instruments i s available to local governments
and, as part of a decision-making process closely related to the local
one, state constraints can be changed i f a clear case is made for such
change.
Using their existing powers, the State of C alifornia and the govern­
ments of Santa Clara County and San Jose oou ld exert p ositive controls
over population density, the sp a tia l distribution of a c t iv it ie s , and
the composition of community development.

The policy instruments

available are well known to students of urban development.

They include

among others:
o

Fee simple and less than fee simple purchase of rights
in land

o

Zoning and building regulation

o

Licensing and franchising

o

Land and improvement taxation

o

Location and timing of public u t il it y and fa c i li t y

o

Public service pricing p o licies

o

Occupancy permits

improvements

Theoretically, this array of powers and policy instruments should enable




244
-

88 -

states and lo c a lit ie s to exert control over the rate of urban growth,
lim it environmental p o llu tion , enhance community a esth etics, provide
su ffic ie n t open space and recreation areas, foster residential integration,
and provide adequate housing over a braod range of prices.

In fa c t,

no resu lts approaching these have been forthcoming.
Many general solutions have been offered for the problem of lo cal
in a b ility to manage development.

Some argue for the necessity of forming

metropolitan governments or multiple-purpose special d is t r ic t s .

Arguments

have been made for direct provision of services by states through
multiple-purpose regional a u th o ritie s.*

Local planners frequently

complain that their recommendations are summarily overridden by elected
o ffi c i a ls and that more powerful tools are need to guide urban
development patterns.

The recent Nader report, Power and Land in

California,,* * argues — with particular reference to Santa Clara County *
—
that the u gliness, sprawl, and high so cia l costs of crazy-qu ilt developments
are the result of a combination of p o lit ic a lly powerful land in te re sts,
corruption among elected and appointed o f f i c i a l s , and nonfeasance by
planners and regional organizations.
W agree that there is a problem.
e

W are not convinced, however,
e

that additional lo cal policy instruments are the solution; the
hypothesis coming out of analysis thus far indicates that much of the
answer lie s in modifying the pressures at the Federal le v e l and in
adjusting the constraints imposed at the state level on the use of
current instruments.

Nor are we convinced that a ll public o f f i c i a l s are

fo o lish or corrupt or that a ll planners are timid and in effec tu a l.
Rather, we contend that the states and m unicipalities have, inadvertently,
and under substantial external pressure, used their legal powers to
create a system of in stitu tio n s and incentives weighted toward in dis­
criminate use of land and weighted to make competition among local
governments, and not collaboration, the natural mode

of behavior.

Our

contention is that the system is so weighted that it is d i f f i c u l t ,
i f not almost impossible, for local governments to employ land control
-

Joseph F. Zimmerman, "D irect State Action to Help Solve Metropolitan
Problems," State Government, Vol. XLIV, Winter 1971, No. 1, pp. 37-41.
** op. <yit.




245
-8 9 -

policy instruments e ffe c tiv e ly .
misfeasance.

It is not a case of nonfeasance or

It is a case of having defined a game that is not in

favor of the house — a game in which the "public in te re st" w ill always
lose in the long run.
In addition to the Federal pressures discussed above, key elements
in the game — or system — are existing state land taxation p o licy,
necessary heavy reliance on sales and property taxes for municipal
revenue, diffu sion of powers and functional r e sp o n sib ilities among
lo cal governments (counties, m u nicipalities, school d is t r ic t s , special
d is t r ic t s , regional auth orities, and the li k e ) , and public service
pricing p o lic ie s .
state le v e l.

Most of the ground rules have been enacted at the

The legisla tu re has created a narrow set of constraints

within which the m unicipalities must a ct.

Within this narrow set of

constraints, the m unicipalities have l i t t l e discretionary room, but they
do have considerable incentives to maximize their own narrow in te re sts.
There are few incentives for individual local units to view problems
from a county-wide perspective, much less from a regional perspective.
W would contend, therefore, that many of the e ffo r ts toward municipal
e
reform are misdirected.

I f lo cal government behavior is to be changed,

there w ill have to be changes at the state level where the ground rules
are made.
Four related examples serve to illu stra ted the system-induced
pressures and constraints on w ell-intentioned and sk illed public o ffic ia ls
who attempt to guide urban development and to collaborate with adjoining
ju risd ic tio n s.

In each case, attempts have been made to s h ift the pressures

and get around the constraints, but these attempts have met with only
modest success.

Tw recent attempts, however, show substantial promise.
o

One, a "Mayor’ s Sign -off Program," giving the Mayor of San Jose substantial
power over Federal expenditures throughout the County, has been introduced
on an experimental basis by HUD.

The other is a deus e x machina that

may prove in the end to have more potential for change than anything
else — a California Supreme Court decision outlawing the differences
in lo c a l property tax base as a basis for differences in educational
spending by school d is t r ic t s .




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a.

Balkanization.

For many reasons — the fight for property tax

base being chief among them — c itie s in California have frequently
become fie rc e ly competitive for geographical control.

Offensive and

defensive annexations to capture tax base have generated crazy-quilt
municipal boundaries, with San Jose's perhaps being the craziest of
a ll — a gerrymander eaten by moths.

Concessions have been made to

developers or firms by permitting these private in terests to externalize
costs — charge them to general tax-supported revenues

on the general

theory that the returns to the tax base w ill be greater than these costs.
This is at the heart of the dependence of tax base upon continued growth
as indicated in our growth-dependence model.

W discuss below a systematic
e

attempt to estimate the costs and revenue benefits of new development
over the long run.
The system thus encourages even c i t i e s , whose electorates might
otherwise have strong social consciences, to compete to exclude the
poor, low income housing, and firms that require more municipal services
than their taxes would cover.
strong in social conscience.

And by no means are a ll electorates
In either case, the result is exclusionary

zoning in an attempt to keep out undesired uses, and zoning much more
land for industry than w ill ever be used.
In this example, the game has been defined for local government as
a zero-sum game.

If one city wins, the other can only lo se.

There are

few, i f any, incentives for collaboration among governments on any
matters of c r it ic a l importance.

A ll the incentives for local o ffi c i a ls

are weighted in favor of Balkanization — the current system helps those
in a favored position to protect what they have and to attempt to
enhance i t .

Thus, in addition to being a zero-sum game, the game is

weighted to favor those who are best o f f .
Some steps have been taken to control annexation in California counties
through creation in 1963 of Local Agency Formation Commissions (LAFCO).
The Nader report* contends that the Santa Clara County LAFCO has worked
*

op. o z t . 3 p. VI-36




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-91-

very slowly to e ffe c t change and that i t has not been particularly
successful in lim iting annexations.

In fa c t, i f one compares Santa Clara’ s

LAFCO not to the Nader id e a l, but to the situation that prevailed before
1963, i t can be argued that offensive and defensive annexations in the
County have been reduced, in large part as a result of the County LAFCO's
a c t iv it ie s .

In any event, LAFCO's are peculiar to C alifornia.

Although

their effectiveness varies considerably among counties, annexation
b attles continue in many parts of the country without the benefit of
such referees.
b.

Diffusion of Power.

Another closely related illu str a tio n centers

on the diffu sion of powers among ty p es of government as opposed to the
simpler Balkanization of an area into many sim ilar governments.
governments are s p lit up by function

Local

in most areas of the country;

general-purpose lo cal government hardly e x is ts .

Santa Clara’ s m unicipalities

do not control the location or timing of school construction, sewer
extensions,* water service, and flood control; this does not leave them
in much of a position to influence where and when development takes
place.

In the case of San Jose, each of these services is provided

by a separate, single purpose ju risd ic tio n .

It would require a super-human

jo in t e ffo r t of the City and the County to coordinate the timing of
such improvements to manage development.

Indeed this diffu sion provides

another reason why local developers and speculators have been able to
get so much of what they want.

Diffused power and confused control

has provided a fie ld for "the old Army game" of playing one authority
o ff against another.
Again, there have been some attempts in Santa Clara County to cope
with this d if fic u lt y .

An informal organization of public planning

o f f i c i a l s , the Planning Policy Committee (PPC), has attempted to
coordinate the location and timing of public improvements by C o u n ty and
m u n i cipal agencies within the County boundaries.

County o f f i c i a l s intro­

duced a b i l l into the State Assembly which would provide enabling le g is ­
lation permitting the PPC to be formalized and giving i t formal powers

*The City of San Jose controls most, but not a ll of i t s own sewers.
Some are privately owned.




248
-9 2 of coordination within the County.

The enabling le g isla tio n would make

sim ilar in stitu tio n s possible in each of the Sta te’ s counties.

The

innovative e ffo r ts within the County o ffer the opportunity to evaluate
the effica cy of such home-grown attempts to cope with the complex
problems of coordination.

In addition, another b i l l , the Knox b i l l ,

which would go far toward the creation of regional government in the
entire San Francisco Bay Area, which includes Santa Clara County, could
make for substantial lo cal improvement.
Another possibly very powerful attempt to cope with the problems
related to both kinds of power diffu sion — Balkanization and special-purpose
authorities — stems from the Federal government.

The San Jose Standard

Metropolitan S ta tis tic a l Area has been selected as an experimental target
for a "planned deviation" of the Model C ities program.

This version,

"th e Mayor's Sign -off Program," w ill give the mayor of San Jose a
veto over the spending of Federal funds within the San Jose SMSA, even
o u ts id e th e C i t y 's b o u n d a ries*

The San Jose SMSA, however, is Santa

Clara County, and the veto power extends even to Palo A lto , a fact which
has caused some apprehension in other c i t i e s .
odd program as applied to California.

In fa c t, this is a rather

The Federal program is apparently

based on an Eastern conception of metropolitan areas where there is a
strong central city and many smaller suburbs clustered around i t .
Santa Clara County situation is considerably d iffe re n t,

The

San Jose is

larger than surrounding c i t i e s , but only because of an aggressive annexation
program during the s ix t ie s .

It is not, in the traditional sense, the

decaying central city of a metropolitan area.

Nevertheless, the Federal

program would provide the mayor of San Jose with a strong voice in the
a ffa irs of c itie s that consider themselves the equal of San Jose.
Sim ilarly, the California county is not the equivalent of i t s weak
Eastern counterpart.

Some knowledgeable local observers suggest that

many of the ju risd ictio n al problems stem from the fact that Santa Clara
County has been acting lik e a weak Eastern county, even though i t need
not.

In fa c t, the external pressures, constraints, and structures push

the County in the same direction of in effec tu a lity that they press a ll
ju r is d ic tio n s .

This does not cover m ilitary spending or purchase of goods from
firms in Santa Clara County, of course.




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-9 3 -

For a number of reasons, the workings of the Mayor’ s Sign -off
Program in Santa Clara County w ill be important to observe.

It w ill

provide a test of our hypothesis concerning the crucial nature of the
external pressures and constraints, which can be substanially affected
by this program, u n less the external pressures on the program mean
that i t w ill be used as in e ffe c tiv e ly as most current powers.

In

addition, the experience w ill provide an opportunity to evaluate the
consequences of a Federal urban policy that does not take into account
the rather sign ifica n t differences among metropolitan regions based on
regional location , structural variation s, and the nature of the sa lien t
problems within the individual metropolitan areas.

The experience

w ill very lik e ly suggest the need for a s e t of national urban p o lic ies
rather than a single national urban p olicy.
c.

Leap-frog development.

A third example of the way the system

precludes e ffe c tiv e control of development, even when policy instruments
ex ist le g a lly , is the lack of control over leap-frog development and
sprawl.

As housing tracts are developed among the orchards and vine­

yards of Santa Clara County, i t becomes increasingly uneconomic to
retain adjoining lands in productive orchards.

In large measure, this

is because California assessors are required to assess land at i t s highest
and best use.

An orchard across the street from a housing tract is

assessed, not on i t s orchard use, but in terms of i t s poten tial for
housing.

I t must be either held o ff the market for speculative purposes

or be sold for tract housing or other intensive development.
Land can be held from development for speculative purposes.

As has

been noted, purchasers have been able to purchase land for very l i t t l e
principal down and to prepay in te re st, thus gaining a rather substantial
tax break.

By holding the land for a r ela tiv ely short period of time,

the speculator is able to r e s e ll the land — which has greatly increased
in value because of the adjoining development — and realize capital
gains, another tax break.
The farmer who holds land from the market despite increased taxes,
and the land speculator who holds land out from development, encourage




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-9 4 -

leap-frog development.

Developers, who are also interested in acquiring

cheap land and realizing capital gains, find such land beyond the developed
areas.

They create and market a tra c t, then demand municipal services

or create a special d is tr ic t to provide one or two basic services.

When

u t i l i t i e s must be extended beyond agricultural land to these new tra c ts,
costs are externalized by the developer to the rest of the community.
M unicipalities permit this kind of development for reasons which have
been discussed:

because of their dependence on the property tax; and

because planning commissions and other land regulating commissions are
subject to major pressure by development in te re sts.
An attempt has been made in California to relieve some of these
pressures by protecting land at the urban fringe from having high taxes
force i t from agricultural production to urban uses.

The Sta te’ s

Williamson Act provides that land tracts can continue to be taxed on the
basis of current use rather than on the basis of potential urban uses,
i f the land owner enters into an agreement with the county, stating
that the land w ill not be converted to urban uses for a stipulated
period of time.

The usual time period is ten years.

The land owner

may, however, convert the land to urban uses before the end of the agreed
upon time i f he obtains the consent of the county government.

The county

is empowered to levy penalties against the landowner i f i t so chooses.
There is considerable evidence that the Williamson Act has been
used and misused frequently in Santa Clara to frustrate the intent of
the Act.

Local o f f i c i a l s have told us informally that the Act does not

appear to have been particularly e ffe c tiv e .

In Power and Land in

C a lifo r n ia 3 various applications of the Act are cited that cast doubt
on i t s efficacy as a development control instrument.*

The thrust of

both the informal evaluations and the Nader Report has been that the
land taken o ff the market is much le ss lik e ly to be saleable than that
l e f t on; and that in case of a bad guess by a landowner who wants to
take his land out from under Williamson, the pressures on the County
not to levy major penalties are strong.

There does not appear to

e x is t, however, a systematic and rigorous evaluation of the impact of
the Williamson Act.

o p . a i t . j p. 11-23, f f .




251
-9 5 -

These examples are fam iliar ones to frustrated planners and to
students of urban development.

They are, however, illu s tr a tiv e of the

complexities and interrelatedness of in stitu tio n s, laws, and govern­
mental structure at state and local levels concerning land development
and intergovernmental rela tio n s.

Indeed, i t is the systemic nature

of the situation that has governed the approach being taken in this
project to the matter of development p o lic ie s.
While some might think that changing the rules of the game to redefine
the system within which lo cal government operates is either too d if fic u lt
or too radical a step, the rules are already being changed.

L itigation

is the main thrust of such changes.
d.

Property taxation.

Just as the most important Federal pressure

on lo cal policy may be that stemming from the incentives set up by the
income tax, i t seems quite lik e ly that the most important s t a t e /lo c a l
pressure stems from the fa ct that the property tax provides the major
source of lo cal revenue.

The e ffe c t of the property tax in encouraging

Balkanization has already been discussed; at least as important is the
fact that the regressive nature of the tax and i t s fa ilu re to expand
revenues with general economic expansion exert great downward pressure
on lo cal cap ab ilities to finance education and other services.

The la tte r

is an important factor in perpetuating the so cia l problems we have
discussed.

The property tax is generally agreed to be a very bad tax .*

In C aliforn ia, le g is la tiv e e ffo r ts to put i t on a statewide basis to
at least equalize cap ab ilities among school d is tr ic ts with vastly
differen t resources, and/or to substitute revenues from the state
income tax, have been attempted for years, but have fa ile d for p o lit ic a l
reasons.

The C alifornia Supreme Court, however, has recently made a

very sign ifican t move which w ill apparently shortcut the p o lit ic a l system,
and substantially modify dependence on local property taxes for educational
finance'and perhaps for a ll services.

In the case of Serrano v. P riest,

the court held that the quality of public education, as measured in dollars
expended, may not be a function of the wealth of the taxing ju r isd ic tio n .**

The basic reference on the property tax is Dick Netzer, Economics
o f th e P ro p erty Tax, (Washington: Brookings, 1966).
John S erran o, J r ., e t . a l . v. Iv y Baker P r i e s t , e t .
Reporter 345.




a l.

89 Cal.

252
-9 6 -

That i s , i t is a denial of equal protection of the laws for a child
to be deprived of quality education simply because he liv e s in a
r e la tiv e ly poor d is tr ic t in terms of tax base.

The court's logic

could be extended ea sily to other basic public services:

sewers, health

and welfare serv ices, police and fir e protection, and so forth .

In i t s

decision the court made a major attack on the existing rules of the system,
but without the benefit of rigorous analysis of the lik e ly consequences
of i t s decision.

I f the decision s tic k s , i t may be the most powerful

possible instrument for change in lo cal government, in San Jose and
elsewhere.
Nor is the California educational finance case an isolated instance.
In Mahwah, New Jersey, a c itiz e n s' group has file d suit against a
municipality on a related matter.

The municipality in question provided

space for an automotive plant within i t s municipal boundaries, but refused
to provide adequate space for low income housing for the workers who
would be employed by that plant.

In this and the previous case, the

courts have been faced with making decisions that would fundamentally
a lte r the system within which lo cal decisions are made.
More w ill be known about the role of taxation as our lo cal policy
analysis progresses, but i t is intended that alternative approaches
to land and improvement taxation w ill be analyzed to estimte their lik e ly
impacts on developmental patterns within the area.

In addition to

examining near-term policy options, we intend to analyze lik e ly impacts
of Henry George type taxes on incremental land values, separate taxation
of land and improvements on land, and so forth.

Attention w ill be paid

to matters of equity and to the reliance of lo cal governments on
property taxes.
In addition to attempting to define the system of land development
and identifying leverage points for changing that system at the state
and lo cal le v e l, the study w ill include e ffo r ts to improve state and
lo cal decision-making within the existing system.

Despite our e ffo r ts

to learn how to change the systsm, i t is lik e ly that the system w ill not
be changed in a ll places at the same time.

It is also lik e ly that reform

w ill take some time, particularly in view of the number and variety of
in terests involved.




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-9 7 -

The projected public survey discussed above (in part I I I ) becomes
quite relevant here.

In discussing policy options, we are necessarily

touching matters that are very sen sitive to in te re sts, attitu d e s, and *
norms.

W do not propose to use either our own normative judgments, or
e

even our own survey-based judgments about what the public norms are.
Rather, survey resu lts w ill be used to help us work with responsible
public o ffi c i a ls to determine and interpret the norms created by the
p o lit ic a l process.
Conceptual norms alone w ill not s u ffic e , however.

Equally relevant

are bureaucratic and p o lit ic a l factors bearing on the possible development
and execution of p o licy.
would be extremely naive.

To equate attitudes with p o lit ic a l forces
For instance, we are able, as discussed above,

to do some modeling of land speculation without discussing land speculators,
but in talking about future p o licy, the influence of speculators and
builders in aiding or obstructing such policy is obviously important
and must be considered.

One b rie f h isto r ic a l study that is lik e ly to

be useful here w ill be an analysis of city policy for almost two decades
under previous city manager, "Dutch" Hamann.

Hamann is damned by some

as the author of the San Jose annexation and zoning p o licies that led
to the sprawl.*

Others — disinterested individuals from San Jose —

have told us that Hamann was one of the best city managers in the country
for the time.

In any case he retired — apparently not completely

voluntarily — in 1967, and p o lit ic a l analysis of the conditions that
led to both his rise and his f a l l may throw considerable lig h t on future
policy p o s s ib ilit ie s .
2.

Modelling the public costs of new development.

One sp e c ific re­

quest for policy assistance made by the San Jose City Planning Director con­
cerns his need for estimates of the f u l l costs of the City and other public
authorities of newly opened residen tial development.

His hope is to

s h ift more of these costs to the land developers who benefit from the

Stanford Environment Law Society, op. a i t .
As noted above, our
own hypothesis is that i t was growth that led to the sprawl and, while
p o lic ies in these categories could have meliorated the e ffe c ts of the
growth, the problem would s t i l l have been an acute one.

81-745 O - 72 - pt. 1 --1 7




254
-9 8 -

provision of services by the City, the County, the school d i s t r i c t s ,
and so fo rth ; his analytical need is for quantified backup on what these
costs are, and how they compare with the revenues brought in
by new development.
Our approach, which is s t i l l in i t s very early stage, w ill make
heavy use of the census tract cluster analysis discussed above.
The issue must be interpreted not in terms of residential development
in general, but for sp e cific types of development.
Santa Clara County's population liv es

V irtu ally a ll of

in residential developments, of

one sort or another, constructed since 1950; yet the cluster analysis
indicates that differen t areas have taken very differen t courses.
W do not now know whether the differen t clusters stem from
e
differen t sorts of i n i t i a l development or differen t time stages in the
same general type of development.

W suspect some combinations of
e

reasons; in any case, data are available to provide answers.

Santa

Clara County has a record, by Census tra c t, of a ll new residential
subdivisions in the County since 1956, with date, s iz e , and other
information.

From this we can quantify, for each Census tract and each

cluster of tra c ts, the degree to which differences depend upon in it ia l
development, and the degree to which they depend upon age.

And,

beginning with this i n i t i a l analysis, we can draw time patterns of new
development in the County:

what are the current characteristics of

tracts with d ifferen t types of i n i t i a l development
age.

and of different

W w ill then have zero-to-ten-year time tracks (fourteen-year
e

maximum, i f su ffic ie n t 1970 Census data are published so we do not have
to depend on 1966 data) showing the changes from new development to
rela tiv e maturity — conversion of the 1966 (or 1970) cross-section into
a time series via the assumption that a tract in which the average develop­
ment is four years old in 1966 represents the fourth year of the time track,
and so forth.
The fin a l step w ill be to estimate revenues and some service costs
by Census tra c t, to attribute such revenues and costs to the fourth year
after development, the f i f t h , e tc .




Property tax revenue data are available

255
-9 9 -

in this form, but some service expenditure data are not.

Fortunately,

the greatest single public cost — education — can be put on a Census
tract b asis.

So can Public Assistance.

can be assigned on a sim ilar b a sis.

Sewers have fixed locations and

Discussions with City o ffi c i a ls

convince us that rough estimates can be made on a tract basis for such
services as police and fi r e protection (water and sanitation in San
Jose are p r iv a te ), so that the bulk of public expenditures w ill be
represented.
The result of this process w ill be a quantified "conceptual model"
lik e the growth models set forth above.

This in i t s e l f w ill be of sub­

s ta n tia l value ot the City in setting general p o licy.

In addition, we

hope that, working with the City and IBM, we can convert i t to an
operational service model that w ill make possible at least rough pre­
dictions of the results of sp e cific new developments.

I f so, i t can

become a powerful tool of policy analysis, bearing on key decisions
to be made by public o f f i c i a l s .




256
-

V

100 -

CONCLUSIONS

The work reported on here is an example of what might be termed
ec lec tic and developmental systems analysis.

Starting with a general

assignment to examine alternative growth strategies for San Jose, we
have:

id en tified what we believe to be a set of central problems;

analyzed them as problems, both individually and as they relate to one
another; projected their implications for the future; and turned then
to questions of policy alternatives for avoiding the problems, solving
them, or meliorating

them.

In the course of the four months in which the work behind this
report was done, our methods have ranged from econometric modeling to
long run philosophizing; they have included non-parametric s t a t i s t i c a l
analysis, analysis of survey data, use of economic and p o lit ic a l theory,
use of class knowledge of urban planning and problems, obtaining and
using sp ecific class knowledge on San Jose, and — perhaps in some sense
most important — development of ideas that have sprung from a l l the
other methods.

Central to the e ffo r t has been the fact that the ideas

we have developed have not been only our own — they have been developed
in conjunction with o ffi c i a ls of San Jose and Santa Clara County,
employees of private companies lik e IBM, and local academics.

The

e ffo r t began with a v is i t of the (then) two project leaders to talk with
San Jose City Manager Fletcher, continued a few days later with the descent
of eight team members who fanned out through the unsuspecting v illa g e
of San Jose looking for data and ideas, and has continued with many
trips back and forth sin c e.*
Nonetheless, most of the work has taken place in Santa Monica using
documents, ideas, and data from San Jose — published and unpublished
data including Census data, data from City and County f i l e s , and data
from various private sources.

W came back to our desks, typewriters,
e

This particular method of-operation (short v is i t s ) w i l l, of
course, have to change as we analyze urban areas farther from our home
base of Santa Monica than San Jose.




257
-1 0 1 -

books, calculators, and computers and undertook the in te lle c tu a l work
necessary to make coherent the mass of information and ideas at hand.
A ll this is e c le c tic .

The crucial job is to build a structure

of problems and p o lic ies and a pattern for their analysis.

Starting

with undigested quantitative data and qualitative information, we have
derived hypotheses concerning various p o licies and problems and have
begun to test them.

What is most important, however, is neither the

hypotheses nor the t e s t s ; i t is the policy impact.

The ultimate test

of this li e s in the future; our strong b e li e f, however, is that we have
laid a so lid foundation for such impact.
As discussed in the companion piece to this report Rand Urban P o lic y
Program:

S tra te g y f o r S e le c t io n o f C i t i e s and F ir s t -Y e a r P la n , the

analysis of San Jose and Santa Clara County is expected to be the f i r s t
in a se r ie s .

The program is designed so that subsequent urban analysis

w ill take up very differen t complexes of problems in very differen t
urban areas.

As discussed in the companion piece, planned variations

of such analysis is essen tia l to the examination of national urban
p o lic ie s .

What w ill remain constant w ill not be the analytical

structure of problems ana p o lic ies we have b u ilt for San Jose; rather
i t w ill be the developmental method of building such an analytical
structure appropriate to each new area under investigation.




258
-

102 -

Appendix
PRINCIPAL C M O EN ANALYSIS T OBTAIN CENSUS TRACT CLUSTERS
O P N TS
O

Our preliminary analysis of low income problems in Santa Clara County
was almost exclusively dependent on data reported by census tract for the
years I960, 1966, and 19 70.

The data base for this report is the same.

Thus,

when we speak of changes over time — an increase in household income in a
tra c t, for instance — note that we cannot be sure whether the e ffe c t is due
to the upward mobility of the original households or to geographic sh ifts
of fam ilies into and out of the tra ct.
Also in our preliminary analysis, we used a combination of indicators
reported in P r o f i l e 1969:

A Sooio-E conom ic P r o f i l e o f Santa Clara County*

to identify clusters of census tracts which varied in the seriousness of
their socio-economic problems.

With the crude index that we developed at

that time, we were able to divide tracts into three clu sters:

the c r it ic a l

clu ster, defined as those tracts which were in the lowest or next lowest
q u in tile on every measure; the su b critica l clu ster, defined as those tracts
which f e l l in the lowest or next lowest qu in tile on various combinations
of economic and so cia l measures; and the remaining tra c ts, defined as the
n oncritical c lu ste r .**
While these clusters enabled us to summarize the available data in
meaningful ways, we wanted to reduce the arbitrary character of the index
as much as possible.

Further, we suspected that our su b critica l clu ster,

esp ecia lly , contained tracts whose differences from one another would be
more interesting and useful to consider than the sim ila r itie s that had led
to the i n i t i a l grouping.
Thus, we chose to do a Principal Components Analysis to place tracts
into groups on the basis of nine economic and so cia l variables reported in
the 1966 special census of Santa Clara County.

These variables are percent

*The P r o f i l e was prepared by the Social Planning Council of Santa Clara
County. Half the indicators used data from the 1966 special census of
Santa Clara County while others (public assistance, juvenile probation, e tc .)
were based on more recent data.
**see, A lte r n a tiv e Growth S t r a te g ie s f o r San J o se3 Preliminary Report
of the Rand Urban Analysis Project, pp. 38-43.




259
-1 0 3 -

on public assistance, percent unemployed, percent owner occupied housing,
percent persons over 25 years with less than 8 years formal education,
household s iz e , median income percent persons 65 years or over, percent
persons 19 years or under, percent persons who are Mexican-American.
The means, standard deviations, and correlations of these nine variables
are reported in Table A -l.

The reader should note that the f i r s t fiv e

variables have been defined in such a way that larger values would generally
be thought of as "good "; thus a mean of 92.2 on the public assistance
indicates that the average tra ct had 92.2 percent persons not on public
assistance and a mean of 88.4 on the education variable indicates that the
average tract has 88.4 percent persons 25 or over who have completed more
than eight years o f school.




260
-104-

Table A-l
CORRELATIONS, MEANS, STANDARD DEVIATIONS FOR
SOCIAL AND ECONOMIC VARIABLES IN THE PRINCIPAL COMPONENTS ANALYSIS3
NPAst

Emplt

0 Occ

NLoEd

M Inc

HH Sz

>65

I 19

MexAm

92.2
7.7

95.5
4.0

59.5
21.1

88.4
7.6

8323
2651

3.2
.6

7.1
4.8

36.9
8.9

10.6
12.2

1.00
.84
.51
.83
.73
.16
-.31
.10
-.90

.84
1.00
.43
.77
.66
.18
-.33
.12
-.81

.51
.43
1.00
.40
.77
.66
-.34
.65
-.38

.83
.77
.40
1.00
.74
.08
-.27
.01
-.86

.73
.66
.77
.74
1.00
.42
-.34
.39
-.64

.16
.18
.66
.08
.42
1.00
-.73
.95
.06

-.31
-.33
-.34
-.27
-.34
-.73
1.00
-.71
.12

.10
.12
.65
.01
.39
.95
-.71
1.00
.11

-.90
-.81
-.38
-.86
-.64
.06
.12
.11
1.0

ns*1, S t d . Devs:

relations:
NPAst
Emplt
Owner Occup.
N Lo Ed
M Income
HH Sz
>65
<19

MexAm

^ e have used data for 125 of the 127 census tracts in Santa Clara County,
excluding tracts 47 and 49 which correspond to Moffett Field and Agnew State Hospital.
^We have used unweighted means to place tracts into groupings. Thus, though
some tracts may have 80 times as many people as others, we have counted all tracts
equal for this portion of the analysis.




261
-1 0 5 -

The strongest correlation in the matrix is between percent persons under
19 and household size (.9 5 ) confirming the rather prosaic observation that
large households are primarily households with many children in them.

The

other very strong correlations, apart from the obvious intercorrelations
between the economic measures we have used, are the negative correlations
between percent Mexican-American and the measures of economic w ell-being,
eg. - . 9 with percent not on public assistance, - .8 1 with percent employed,
-.8 6 with percent persons with moderate or above levels of formal education,
e tc .

The fact that 12% of a l l people in the county over 25 years of age

have not gone beyond the eighth grade may be combined with these strong
negative correlations between the economic variables and percent MexicanAmerican to suggest that a large percentage of the Mexican-American community
in the county has been associated with the declining agricultural industry.
In the Principal Components analysis, the variables measured for 125
tracts are thought of as being plotted in nine dimensional space and these
variables are transformed by rotations to determine whether or not they li e
esse n tia lly in a lower dimensional subspace.

In these data, 92 percent of

the variance li e s in a three dimensional subspace, and in Table A-2 we
present the three principal components which are orthogonal to one another
and which describe th is subspace.




262
-106-

Table A - 2
VARIABLE LOADINGS ON 3 PRINCIPAL COMPONENTS
Comp No.

EigVl3

C Stdb

1

.547

.739

.292

.541

.080

.282

2

NPA3t

Emplt

0 Occ

NLoEd

M Inc

HH Sz

*-65

-19

MexAm

.39

.36

.37

.40

.24

-.24

.20

-.35

-.23

-.20

.20

-.26

.00

.52

-.36

.53

.35

-.02

.14

.58

-.19

.31

.04

.71

.00

.11

.39°

^ h e eigen value entry represents the fraction of the total variance corresponding
to the component. Thus, component 1 represents 54.7 percent of the variance; component
2, 29.2 percent of the variance; component 3, 8 percent of the variance. The other
8 percent of the variance lies in the remaining six dimensions; we have ignored this
remaining variance because it is both small and difficult to interpret what the other
variables might be.
^These values represent the square root of the eigen value. The ratios of these
square roots of eigen values from component to component indicates the ratio of the
major to the minor axis of the elipse representing the two dimensions under consider­
ation.
CThese values provide the orthogonal coefficients of the nine standardized
variables which determine component loadings.




263
-1 0 7 -

The f i r s t principal component for a given tract corresponds to multiplying
.39 times the standardized percentage* of people not on public assistance
plus .39 times the standardized percent of people employed, plus .36 times
the standardized percent of dwellings which are owner occupied, and so forth.
The second and third principal components are defined the same way, that i s ,
by multiplying - .2 3 times the standardized percent of people not on public
assistance, plus - .2 0 times the standardized percent of people employed, and
so forth for the second principal component - and the same procedure for the
third principal component.
Since the f i r s t principal component is p o sitiv e on every economic variable,
is not so heavily dependent on household size or age, and is negatively depen­
dent on percent Mexican-American persons in the tra c ts, we found i t reasonable
to think of this component as an indicator of economic welfare.

The second

principal component puts strong po sitiv e weight on household s iz e ,

the

percent persons under nineteen (note that the weights are almost equal on
these variables, and that they are highly correlated) and percent of persons
who are Mexican-American.

Negative weights are placed on education, public

assistance, employment, and a slig h t po sitiv e weight on owner occupied housing.
This weighting scheme suggests that the second component is an indicator of
rela tiv ely large fa m ilies, with r ela tiv ely low income often of MexicanAmerican eth n icity.

The primary emphasis in the second component, however,

is on fa m ilie s .* *

*Standardized variables are simply the values for each tract corrected
by subtracting the mean and dividing by the standard deviation, so that they
represent the number of standard deviation away from the mean on the variable
in question.
**The use of the standard deviation for determining important differences
may have had much to do with the fact that the second principal component
depends heavily on fa m ilies, since the importance of a variable when working
with standardized variables depends in part on i t s standard deviation, and
the standard deviation o f household s iz e , (.6 ) is fa ir ly sm all. This may
be acting to in fla te the importance of household s iz e .




264
-1 0 8 -

The third principal component has i t s heaviest values on those over 65 in
homes that are owner occupied.

The distin ction occurring in this component

is related to age and home ownership.

These weights together with the

negative weighting on median income in this component indicates that tracts
which have strong positive scores on the component contain people who are
moderately w e ll-o ff , own their own homes, and are older.

Tracts which score

in a strong negative direction thus contain people who are rela tiv ely low
income, younger renters.
In summary, we id en tified three principal components* which explain
92 percent of the to ta l variance:
(1)

an economic w ell-being component, representing
54.7 percent of the variance,

(2)

a large, poor fam ilies component, representing
29.2 percent of the variance, and

(3)

an older, homeowners (or, indigenous) component,
representing 8 percent of the variance.

By means of these three principal components, then, we reduced a nine
dimensional problem to a three dimensional problem.

An attempt at cluster

analysis demonstrated that there are no "c lu s te r s " of tracts in Santa Clara
County in a s t r ic t ly s t a t i s t i c a l sense.

This simply means that while one

tract may d iffe r a great deal from another, there are many tracts in between
which tend to make the transformation from one tract to another more or less
continuous.

Bimodalities and m ultim odalities, necessary to clustering in

the s t r ic t sense, are esse n tia lly missing from the data.
However, we found that tracts which had the largest and sm allest loadings
on the fi r s t principal component were never extremely negative on the second
principal component.

This suggested a method for grouping the tra c ts.

Using

a two dimensional subspace, with the x axis being the f i r s t principal component

*The fourth principal component represented 3 .5 percent of the variance,
and i t seemed that the primary feature being explained by the values on the
component was the fact that some of the tracts are heterogeneous. W have
e
ignored this component because of it s small variation and because no useful
interpretation could be derived from i t .




265
-1 0 9 -

and the y axis being the second principal component, we grouped tracts into
s ix clu sters* - a term we continue to use with the understanding that i t s
imagery far outweighs i t s s t a t i s t i c a l accuracy.
These new clusters have considerable though not complete agreement with
the groupings e lic ite d from our ea rlier index.

Table C shows the tracts

included in each cluster and indicates how they were placed according to
the e a rlier index.

W have achieved two major advantages by this approach.
e

F ir s t, we have increased the accuracy o f the clu sters.

For example, tract

126 which was formerly rated as su b critic a l now f a ll s in the cluster of lowest
economic w ell-b ein g; tract 88 which was formerly rated as c r it ic a l has moved
to a cluster of low (though not lowest) economic w ell-bein g.

Since tract 126

is considerably lower on every economic variable than tract 88, i t is obvious
that the c la s s ific a tio n has been improved.

Second, we have reduced the

heterogeneity o f the 32 tracts in our former su b critica l c lu ster.

About h alf

of these tracts now f a l l in cluster 3 and one-third in cluster 2.

In the

following discussion i t w ill become apparent that these two clusters are
quite differen t in their so cia l (demographic) characteristics and that while
both share a sim ilar le v e l of economic deprivation, their more sp e c ific
economic problems vary quite rad ica lly .

The most apparent anomaly is that

fiv e su b critic a l tracts (of the e a rlier defin ition ) now l i e in Cluster 5 - a
set of tracts whose economic problems are not extreme.

In terestin g ly , these

turn out to be tracts with the highest Mexican-American populations for the

*In the two dimensional subspace, the x axis ( f i r s t principal component)
runs from a minimum value of -5 .9 5 to a maximum value of 4.0 88; the y value
extends from - 4 .8 to 4.095 (the second principal component). For clu ster 1,
we combined the 17 tracts which were sm allest on the f i r s t principal component,
including a ll tracts whose value li e s below - 2 . 9 .
Clusters 2 and 3 correspond
to a ll tracts whose f i r s t principal component is between - 2 .9 and 0 , 0 being
the central value. A tract f a ll s in clu ste r 2 i f the second principal com­
ponent was le ss than -1 .2 5 ; otherwise, the tract is placed in clu ster 3.
(The value -1 .2 5 was chosen because a l l tracts in cluster 1 had second
principal components greater than - 1 .2 5 ) .
Clusters 4 and 5 are defined as
those tracts with f i r s t principal component between 0 and 1 .5 .
Cluster 4
includes those tracts with second principal component values less than -1 .2 5 ;
and remaining tracts f a l l in c lu ster 5 . Cluster 6 includes a ll tracts whose
f i r s t principal component exceeds 1 .5 .




266
-noclu ster.

With the exception of tract 35, these tracts rank lowest in the

cluster on the economic well-being component.

Nevertheless, their overall

characteristics are much closer to the dominantly Anglo white tracts of their
cluster than to the tracts of Cluster 3, for example, where higher percentages
of Mexican-Americans liv e .




267
-1 1 1 -

Table A -3
SANTA CLARA C U TY CENSUS TRACTS, BY CLUSTER
ON

1
[ 8]
[17]
[10]
[14]
[12]
[18]
126
6
[11]
[19]
[37]
[ 7]
[36]
[15]
[ 2]
[46]
1

2
20
9
113
57
16
95
71
4
13
51
94
115
91
5
23
97

3
3
124
[96]
121
56
[31]
52
125
[88]
123
40
41
[87]
86
24
34
127
65
122
39

4

5

6

25
107
70
22
59
116
112
114
103

21
32
50
38
93
118
60
55
58
92
90
89
43
85
64
54
35
27
67
63
33
26
98
53
109
45
106

48
120
72
44
77
42
110
28
99
30
66
80
78
68
73
105
119
82
62
29
83
84
61
104
102
69
74

100
76
79

111
81
108
117
75

101
Numbers In brackets indicate c r it i c a l tracts in ea rlier c la s s ific a tio n
Numbers in i t a li c s indicate su b critica l tracts in ea rlier c la s s ific a tio n
Numbers in arabic indicate n oncritical tracts in ea rlier c la s s ific a tio n







269

WN-7658-NSF
October 1971

RAND URBAN POLICY PROGRAM:
AND FIRST YEAR-PLAN

STRATEGY FOR SELECTION OF CITIES

Rand Urban Policy Analysis Group

prepared for the

NATIONAL SCIENCE FOUNDATION

T h is N o t e w as p r e p a r e d t o f a c i l i t a t e
c o m m u n i c a t i o n o f p r e l i m in a r y research
results. Views o r co ncl us ion s expressed
h e re in m ay be te n ta tiv e a n d d o n o t
r e p r e s e n t t h e o f f i c i a l o p i n i o n o f th e
s p o n s o rin g agency.

SANTA MONICA, CA. 90406

8 1 - 7 4 5 O - 72 - pt. 1 - - 1 8




270
-iii-

CONTENTS

PREFACE AND SUM ARY........................................... ............................................................
M

1

Section
I.
INTRODUCTION............................................... ..........................................................

5

II.

SELECTION OF U BAN A R E A S ................‘..............................................
R
7
7
G e n e r a liz a t io n ............................................................................................
In stitu tio n al Factors in Choice of C it ie s .................................... 19

III.

FIRST-YEAR PLAN................................................................................................... 25
Major Studies................................................................................................... 25
Supplementary Studies................................................................................. 29

Appendix
1. CO R
R ESPO D CE F O U B N OFFICIALS.........................................................37
N EN
RM RA
2. DATA SO
URCES AN UTILIZATION........................................................................ 43
D
3. BIBLIOGRAPHY OF R N U B N PR BLEM PUBLICATIONS........................... 56
A D RA
O
S




271
RN U
A D RBAN POLICY PROGRAM
:
STRATEGY FOR SELECTION OF CITIES AND FIRST-YEAR PLAN
PREFACE A D SU M R
N
M AY

The proposed Rand program o f Urban Policy Analysis has two
major o b jectiv es:
o

To provide assistance in the design and choice of

o

To provide sim ilar assistance in the design and choice of

policy altern atives to l o c a l and s t a t e decisionmakers,

national urban p o lic ie s to f e d e r a l decisionmakers.
The lo c a l objective is exemplified by the companion piece to th is
£
paper, the i n i t i a l report on A lt e r n a t i v e Growth S t r a t e g ie s f o r San J o s e .
The subject of th is paper is how a lim ited number (eight to ten)
in-depth analyses of sp e c ific metropolitan areas can contribute to
national urban p o lic ie s , how the eight to ten areas w ill be chosen
to make a maximum contribution to such p o lic ie s , and how the choices
fo r the f i r s t year of the program (San Jose, S t. Louis, and S e attle)
f i t into th is strategy of se le c tio n .
I t is obvious that no approach to s t a t i s t i c a l generalization about
a l l American urban areas is possible from a sample of eight to ten areas;
i t seems lik e ly , in fa c t , that the variety of urban areas is such that
generalization of th is sort would be d i f f i c u lt regardless of the siz e of
the sample.

We are aiming for gen eralization, but generalization of a

broader, n o n -s ta tis tic a l so rt.

Indeed, one major conclusion may be

that the sp e c ific e ffe c ts of many national p o lic ie s on d iffe re n t areas
d iffe r so much that such p o lic ies w ill have to be carefu lly adapted,
case by c a s e ..
To look for such sp e c ific e f fe c t s , as w ell as wider applications
of p o licy, we have designed a strategy of planned variations to ensure
that the variety of urban areas i s represented in the sample.

Statements

about national urban p o lic ie s — and their differin g e ffe c ts on various
types of areas — can then be drawn from analysis designed to uncover
fundamental relationships within and among d ifferen t functional

*Rand Corporation Working Note //7657-NSF, October, 1971.




272
-

2-

realms (demographic, economic, p o li t i c a l, e t c .) in d ifferen t sorts
of urban areas.
The strategy of choice has four major c h a ra c teristic s:
o

Specification of a few key dimensions along which

o

A sequential selectio n process by which, since the

the sample should vary,

needed dimensions of variation w ill be more fu lly
understood as a resu lt of the f i r s t analyses of
sp e c ific areas, choice of areas a fter the f i r s t set
w ill wait upon substantial analysis of the f i r s t s e t .
o

Supplementation of the sample of depth analyses with
smaller projects designed to f i l l in gaps in the sample,
to gather information from other ongoing related
p ro jec ts, and to a s s is t in the process of aggregation,

o

Generalizations — including generalizations about
uitfeiisiLy — fiom the Lliiee previous steps.
of generalization has already begun.

This sort

Our San Jose

analysis suggests, for example, that federal p o lic ie s
not ordinarily specified as urban — e . g . , m ilitary
procurement and tax p o lic ie s — lim it severely the space
within which lo c a l authorities can make e ffe c tiv e p o lic y .
This is a hypothesis we w ill trace through the various
areas we in ve stig ate.
We have i n i t i a l l y decided upon six dimensions of v ariatio n .

Two

of these concern variations in the urban problem s that seem on an
a p r io ri- basis to be of greatest current importance.

1.

The sta te of economic and demographic growth or
decline both of a metropolitan area and i t s central
c ity .

2.

The in ten sity of so cia l problems associated with
r a c ia l tension, poverty, slums, and the lik e .

The other four dimensions cover variations in presumed c a u ses of prob­
lems that i n i t i a l ly seem lik e ly to d iffe re n tia te selected urban areas.




273
-3 -

3.

The p o lit ic a l structure of the area, including
both the structure of ju risd ic tio n s in the metropolitan
area and the politica l/b u reau cratic/a d m in istrative
structure of the central c ity .

4.

Federal spending in the area.

5.

Size.

6.

Regional location .

In addition to this conceptual basis for choice of our sample —
the need for planned variations in each of these dimensions — fin a l
choice of s p e c ific urban areas w ill necessarily be based in part on
certain in s titu tio n a l fa c to rs.
o

The cooperation and in terest of lo c a l people and

o

The a b ilit y of lo c a l people and organizations to help.

o

The a v a ila b ility of data.

organizations.

In some cases (including San

Jose) we may do some survey work of our own, but for the
most part we w ill have to depend on existin g data.
o
o

The assistance we can give to lo c a l problem-solving.
The p o s s ib ility of building cooperative relationships
with lo c a l academic in stitu tio n s.

Based on both the conceptual and the in stitu tio n a l grounds for
choice, we have decided upon three major urban area analyses, to
begin during the f i r s t year of the program.
1.

San Jose, where we have already begun the analysis of
growth stra te g ie s.

2.

S t. Louis, where the analysis w ill focus on problems of
neighborhood change and abandonment.

S t. Louis d iffe r s

su bstan tially from San Jose in most of the dimensions:
growth/decline, in ten sity of so cia l problems, p o li t ic a l
structure, s iz e , and regional se ttin g .
3.

S e a ttle, which can provide a major variation from both
San Jose and St. Louis in a key dimension — that of
growth and declin e.

San Jose has been growing rapidly,

but can foresee a slowdown;




St. Louis i s w ell past i t s

274
-4 peak growth.

S e a ttle, however, may be studied ju s t as

i t has peaked out, and analysis of the a rea's adaptation
may be of unique importance in understanding urban change.
In addition to these three major studies, we expect to begin in
the f i r s t year:

a r e la tiv e ly low -level planning e ffo r t for a la te r

analysis of the fe a s i b i li t y of resid e n tial desegregation in Los
Angeles;

supplementation of an ongoing Rand project concerning the

so c ia l uses of cable TV in Dayton, Ohio;

possible small supplementa­

tion of other proposed Rand work in San Francisco to include a growth
analysis p a r a lle l to that being done in San Jose;

secondary analysis

of the three years of work of the New York City-Rdnd In situ te , to
gather m aterial relevant to urban generalization;

and in itia tio n of

one or more studies of urban problems cutting across the s p e c ific
c ity analyses.

Three p o s s ib ilit ie s in this la s t category are;

examination of the "Two Black S o c ie tie s" and the related "C r is is
Ghetto" hypotheses;

in vestigation of "th e problems of the a fflu e n t"

as exemplified in the f i r s t instance in San Jose;

and examination of

what current national urban p o lic ie s — e x p lic it and im p licit —
are.

Of these, the la s t — current national urban p o lic ie s — is most

lik e ly to be begun during the f i r s t year of the program.




275
-5 -

R N U BAN POLICY PROGRAM
A D R
:
STRATEGY FOR SELECTION OF CITIES AND FIRST-YEAR PLAN
I.

INTRODUCTION

The integrated la rg e-sc a le program of Urban Policy Analysis
proposed by Rand has two o b jec tiv es:

to a s s is t lo c a l policymakers

in urban areas to understand the lik e ly e ffe c ts of d iffe re n t policy
alternatives under their control;

and to aid national policymakers

in understanding the consequences of the various options that may be
included in what i s sometimes called "a national urban p o lic y .1 The
1
consequences of various "n ation al urban p o lic y " options may w ell
d iffe r su b stan tially for d ifferen t urban areas;

i f so , that in

i t s e l f w ill be a major policy finding.
To achieve these policy ends, the core of the program w ill be a
series of from eight to ten studies of sp e c ific c i t i e s , carried out over
a period of three to fiv e years.

For each c ity — or more properly,

each urban area, since c ity problems can be best understood in metro­
politan contexts — we w ill concentrate i n i t i a l l y on a broad complex
of problems that i s both important in i t s e l f and w ill illum inate the
s o c ia l, economic, and p o lit ic a l structure of the area and the e ffe c ts
on the area of key policy a lte rn a tiv es, both lo c a l and nation al.

Such

an i n i t i a l focus i s important to organize data and concepts; i t is not
intended to constrain the ultimate scope of the study.
The f i r s t o bjectiv e — that of providing lo c a l assistan ce — is
s elf-ev id en t in i t s meaning.

Local decisionmakers we have talked to

have uniformly exhibited a strong in terest in analysis of the in te r­
mediate and long-run consequences (roughly fiv e to fifte e n years) of
their policy choices; almost as uniformly, they lack an in-house cap- a b ilit y to examine the consequences of policy choices.

How we intend

to go about such lo c a l analysis may be le s s evident and le s s easy to
describe than the objective of the a na ly sis, but the companion piece
to th is paper, our i n i t i a l report on "A ltern ative Growth Strategies
for San Jose" provides an example of our methods.




276
-

6-

The other and perhaps more d i f fi c u lt question, however, is how we
w i ll s e le c t the eight to ten urban areas we want to examine, and how
we hope to generalize to something approaching "n ation al urban p o lic y "
from such a lim ited sample.

Generalization, properly understood, must

be the primary prin cip le for selectio n of urban areas for a na ly sis.
The second p rin cip le, almost as important, is a more in stitu tio n a l one:
our a b ilit y to carry out a study in a sp e c ific area;

and the long-

and short-run aid such a study w ill provide to such an area.

The

la tt e r includes both the immediate assistance that might be contributed
by a study of roughly a year’ s duration, and the long-run assistance
stemming from the organization of lo c a l — largely academically based —
c a p a b ilitie s to continue in the vein we have started.
The next section of th is paper discusses our plans for selectin g
urban areas for study.

I t describes the conceptual basis of selectio n

and considers the expected d i f fi c u lt ie s of obtaining usefu l generalization s.
I t depicts our strategy for getting around some of these d i f f i c u l t i e s ,
and then suggests an in stitu tio n a l basis for selectio n .

The fin a l

section provides more detailed information on our fir s t -y e a r plan —
the c it ie s we have selected and why;
that may be undertaken.




and suggests supplementary studies

277
-7 -

II.

SELECTION OF UR
BAN AREAS

GENERALIZATION
In discussing our o bjective of identifyin g generalizations
leading toward a national urban p o lic y , i t i s necessary to make two
points about what we do n o t mean.

F ir s t, i t i s impossible to obtain

s c ie n t ific a lly v a lid s t a t i s t i c a l generalizations from eight to ten
urban areas.

But even i f the sample were enlarged su b sta n tia lly ,

we suspect that s t a t i s t i c a l generalization would be meaningless because
the number of relevant variables defining structural relationships
within urban areas would overwhelm any number of observations.
Instead, we propose to in i t i a t e , over a period of years, eight
to ten urban analyses, each of s u ffic ie n t depth to id e n tify functional
relationships within the subject area — why have things happened as they
have, as a guide to what i s lik e ly to happen in the future under various
assumptions.

I f we can obtain in sights — whether s t a t i s t i c a l or more

h eu ristic — into uniform ities in individual and in stitu tio n a l behavior
under sp e c ific circumstances, then generalization of a n o n -s ta tis tic a l
nature w ill be p o ssib le.

This strategy for generalization resembles

that used in community studies such as those carried out at Yale ten
years ago, which isolated conform ities.

*

We intend to analyze problems and p o lic ie s within sp e c ific
metropolitan areas

down to understandable building blocks, and then

to restructure these blocks to provide insights into problems and
p o lic ie s over a much wider number of areas than those chosen fo r the
sample.

E ssential to th is e ffo r t is a group of analysts of the sort

who have already begun to work together — a group that includes the
d iscip lin e s of economics, sociology, mathematics, operations a nalysis,
and urban planning.

Such a group is needed to construct a conceptual

framework with broad a p p lic a b ility across varying types of behavioral
relationships as w ell as across d iffe rin g urban areas.

Such a group

-

In p a rticu la r, Robert Dahl, Who G overns?
(New Haven: Yale, 1961),
and Nelson* Polsby, Community "Power and P o l i t i c a l Theory
(New Haven:
Y ale, 1963).




278
-

8-

can examine relationships within a variety of fie ld s and between
these f i e ld s .
The second c a v e a t concerning generalization is that our most
important finding may well be that simple universal gen eralization s,
aggregated to American c itie s as a c la s s , are not very u sefu l.

Our

hypothesis is that American c it ie s are so diverse in their structu res,
problems, and other policy ch aracteristics that any national urban
p olicy w ill necessarily a ffe c t them d if fe r e n t ia lly .

To the extent th is

turns out to be the case, one policy im plication w ill be a need for
discriminating urban p o lic ies applied to sp e c ific urban areas as they
are, rather than to urban areas as an abstract construct.

Even so,

however, certain relevant national p o licies w ill necessarily be
nationwide in scope ( e . g . , income taxation) and insofar as such p o licies
are evaluated in terms of their e ffe c ts on c i t i e s , th is evaluation
w ill have to be understood in terms of d iffe r e n tia l e ffe c ts in d iffe rin g
urban areas.

Thus, i f this hypothesis is v e r ifie d , a generalized national

urban policy w ill have to be in part general, and in part fle x ib le
enough to apply to particular problems in particular areas.
Given these con strain ts, there is a need for planned v a r i a ti o n
among types of c itie s selected for study in order to make possible
the examination of a major portion of the range of national urban problems
and the major e ffe c ts of national p o licies upon these problems.

As we

see i t now, such a strategy w ill have four key ch a ra c te ristic s:
1.

Specification of a f in it e number of dimensions ( e . g . , rate and

type of economic change, size of area, regional location) along which
our sample should vary; and choice of areas so that we do, in f a c t , have
s u ffic ie n t variation in each dimension - - along each a x is.
2.

A sequential selection process, whereby analysis of the

i n i t i a l set of areas (which have already been chosen, as described
below), w ill throw further lig h t on the needed dimensions of v ariatio n ,
enabling us to make subsequent selections on the basis of informed




279
-9 -

judgment rather than speculation.

Our i n i t i a l thought, fo r example,

has been that we must sample from each of four broad regions — Far
West, Midwest, East, and South.

But early analysis in St. Louis and

Dayton, Ohio, might convince us that the Midwest i s a heterogeneous
region needing further d iv isio n .
3.
analyses.

Two types of supplementation to the eight to ten depth
F ir s t, a set of addition al, more lim ited , analyses designed

to f i l l gaps in the sample on sp e c ific very Important dimensions, and
to bring in additional information economically by "adding on" analyses
of our type to other ongoing Rand and non-Rand studies with im plications
for s p e c ific urban areas.

Rand is currently analyzing the so cia l uses

of cable TV in Dayton, fo r example.

Some supplementation of the so c ia l

analysis there w ill enable us to add to our sample a r e la tiv e ly small
Midwestern c ity at low co st.

The second type of supplementation would

use data from large numbers of (or a l l ) urban areas to obtain b etter
sp e cifica tio n of the size and proportions over the United States of
d iffe re n t sorts of problems id en tifie d by the depth analyses.

One

obvious example i s the computation of segregation indices for metro­
politan areas.
4.

F in ally, generalization about problems and p o lic ie s from

the three previous steps.

I t should be noted, however, that while

th is i s la s t in a lo g ic a l sequence, more or le ss tentative generaliza­
tions w ill be drawn from the very outset of the program.

We do not

foresee a black box that w ill spring open in three to fiv e years and
reveal a l l there i s to be known about national

urban

p o lic y .

Indeed,

as i s noted in the companion San Jose paper, our method leads to some
very tentative attempts to generalize even from a sample of one.
We have ten tativ ely id e n tifie d two dimensions or axes along which
we want to vary our sample of urban areas.
called a set of output axes.

One of these might be

These are dimensions of variation in the

urban problem s we now perceive to be of greatest current importance.
I t i s obvious, of course, that such perceptions are a p r i o r i .

This is

one reason why we want to use the sequential decisionmaking process




280
-

10 -

mentioned above for further choice of areas fo r a n alysis.
other set of dimensions may be termed input axes.

The

These include

variation s in conditions that i n i t i a l ly seem lik e ly to oau se d i f ­
ferences among the problems of major urban areas.

They may or may

not turn out to be causally important (maybe small metropolitan areas
rea lly work pretty much the same way as Los Angeles or Chicago, for
example), but unless we bring such variations into our selected sample,
we w ill never know whether they are important or not.
Looking f i r s t at the output axes, we can distinguish i n i t i a l l y
two complex sorts of problem v a r ia tio n : the current state of growth
or decline for both the metropolitan area and i t s central c it y ;

and the

in ten sity of the sort of so c ia l problems characterized by r a c ia l cleavage
and poverty.

These two dimensions are not n ecessarily independent of

one another, but since we are not trying to carry out formal s t a t i s t i c a l
generalization, non-independence i s lik e ly to help our a n a ly sis.

W
e

expecL uui sample of eight to ten urban areas to have clu sters of
ch a ra cteristics.

I f v ir tu a lly a l l "d ec lin in g " areas have intense

s o cia l problems, while rapidly growing areas lack such problems, there
would be no need to search for areas where growth and intense so cia l
problems go together.

Unfortunately, however, important cross-categories

in these two dimensions may e x is t:

Los Angeles, for example, may

represent a metropolitan area that has intense so cia l problems while i t
i s far from evidencing the decline shown by some Eastern c i t i e s .

Chicago

might be another example.
1.

Growth/Decline.

W are interested in the trends — recent,
e

current, and projectable — of both the economic base and the population
s iz e of both an urban area and i t s central c ity .

Santa Clara County,

whicli is the metropolitan area surrounding the central c ity of San
Jose, has at le a st u n til recently experienced very rapid growth inside
and outside the central c i t y , although th is may now be changing.

In

contrast, Seattle and i t s metropolitan area have peaked out and may now
be entering a phase of r e la tiv e ly long-run secular decline.

Both of

these urban areas, however, are d ifferen t from many in the Midwest and




281
-1 1 -

East, where decline began some time ago.

And even in the East,

declining c i t i e s may d iffe r according to whether the central c ity
i s on the downgrade but the area is growing and prosperous, as is
the case thus far in S t. Louis, or whether the entire area is in a
sta te of declin e, as seems to be true of the Pittsburgh area.
Important variations may e x ist too in the relationship of the urban
core — frequently a poverty area — to the central c ity as a whole.
Factors relevant to growth and decline obviously, include the diver­
s ific a tio n or concentration of the

area's economic base as w ell as

this history and prospects of key in du stries, particu larly in areas
dependent upon only a few in du stries.
not explain everything.

But economic base alone may

Although most demographic theory treats

economic variables as independent fa c to r s, with population change
consequent upon economic change, there i s some reason to believe at
le a st in the so -c a lle d "Sun B e l t ," stretching from California to
F lorida, population growth can be expected on a basis somewhat
independent of economic support.
in vestigation .

This hypothesis, of course, requires

Another sp e c ific variable that comes into th is growth/

decline complex is the extent of f i s c a l d i f f i c u lt ie s in urban areas,
particu larly central c i t i e s .

W make th is i n i t i a l l y subordinate here
e

because the state of the public purse seems to depend very heavily
both on change of economic base — we have strong evidence in San Jose
to bear th is out — and on the c i t y 's own in du strial and population
base re la tiv e to i t s metropolitan hinterland.
2.

Social Problems.

housing, and the lik e .

These include ra c ia l tension, poverty, bad

The phrase "th e urban c r i s i s " is one that is

le ss descriptive than i t might seem;

i t is reasonably clear that

although many American c it ie s are in c r i s i s , these crise s vary widely.
Indeed, that i s one of the hypotheses of th is program.

But "urban

c r i s i s , " to the extent that i t has meaning, ordinarily brings to mind
the s o c ia l problems enumerated above.
In San Jose, however, an urban c r is is of this type does not r ea lly
e x is t.

Poor people, m in orities, bad housing do e x is t, but whether because

such problems are truly le ss intense than in many other c i t i e s , because
of r e la tiv e d o c ility o f the poor, or for other reasons (making comparisons




282
-

12
-

lik e th is w ill ultim ately be an important part of our generalization
pro cess), such problems have not turned c r it i c a l in anyone's d e fin itio n .
Perhaps such a c r is is li e s in San Josefs future, but not i t s present;
one of our early findings has been that so c ia l problems of th is
in San Jose seem to be unrelated to the rapid growth that has been
the chief phenomenon of the area.

This fin d in g, in teresting and

important in i t s e l f , also indicates the range of in ten sity of s o c ia l
problems in American c i t i e s .

In St. Louis, so c ia l problems of th is

nature are the major phenomenon.

In Newark, in Cleveland, in D etro it,

they sometimes seem overwhelming.

Concentration on the urban areas at

the distressed end of the scale would lead to biased perceptions about
urban problems and the e ffe c t of national urban p o lic ie s ;

thus some

variations must be considered.
Social problems are not confined to the lower end of the income
and s o cia l sc a les.

For example, an interestin g finding from San Jose

has been that crime, which in many c it ie s is associated with low income —
for victim s as w ell as perpetrators — i s to a great extent a middle class
problem in that area.

This i s true for victims in San Jose;

evidence indicates that is true of criminals too.

some

It may be that th is

w i l l characterize rapidly growing areas of San J ose's type, but on th is
point i t is impossible to generalize from

a

sin gle

e x a m p le .

In

any

case, variation along the axis of in ten sity of so cia l problems —
those associated with poverty and race and those which may not be so
associated — is essen tia l for generalization.

The remaining four dimensions we have i n i t i a l ly id e n tifie d are
those we c a ll input dimensions.

W are not sure that they are asso­
e

ciated — causally or otherwise — with important problem or p o lic y related variations among American urban areas, but they may be, and
i t i s necessary to find th is out, as a step toward gen eralization .
3.

P o litic a l Structure.

of d ifferen t c itie s is of two types.

Variation among the p o lit ic a l structures
One is the relationship of the

central c ity or c i t i e s of a Standard Metropolitan S t a t is t ic a l Area to
the area as a whole.




The most common accepted version i s a large cental

283
-1 3 c ity ringed by suburbs, with the central c ity the dominant focus of
the area.

But in some urban areas — San Jose is an example — the

central c ity i s not dominant;

indeed, throughout the West,

governmental structure makes counties far more powerful units of
government than in most other parts of the country.

And in a l l parts

of the country — Boston as w ell as Los Angeles — there ex ist urban
areas where the central city/suburban pattern does not resemble the
typical ring configuration at a l l .

Rather, for various h is to r ic a l

reasons, municipal ju r isd ic tio n s are mixed with one another and
mixed with county ju r isd ic tio n s.

In Los Angeles one moves to the

suburbs by moving to the San Fernando V alley, which is part of the
c ity .

In Boston one hardly enters a typ ical suburb by moving to

Cambridge.

This dimension of variation is also related to the growth/

decline pattern discussed above.

A relevant question is whether

there ex ist typ ical patterns in the processes of suburban growth.
Another variation is found in the p o lit ic a l structure of the
central c ity i t s e l f .

C ities in the West are typ ica lly governed, at

le ast nominally, by non-partisan adm inistrations;

in the Midwest and

East, administrations of most large c it ie s are elected by party, which
makes for major d ifferen ces, at le a st in urban sty le and quite lik e ly
in real p o lit ic a l processes.

Beyond t h is , there are questions of the

strength or weakness of c ity government.

Easterners neither understood

nor believed him when Mayor Yorty of Los Angeles told a Senate Subcommittee
several years ago that he r ea lly did not have the power to do the kinds
of things they were asking.

Yet Los Angeles — typ ical of most of the

West — has a weak Mayor system with much of the power vested in
rela tiv e ly independent commissions (appointed by the Mayor, however) and
even more of i t under the completely independent ju r isd ic tio n of the
Los Angeles County Board of Supervisors.

Contrast this to the c ity of

New York, where — a ty p ically for American c i t i e s — the c ity admin­
is tr a tio n controls even the Board of Education.
structure is not the only important v ariation .

And formal p o li t ic a l
Although Los Angeles

does have a weak Mayor system, i t is not impossible to conceive of a
C alifornia version of Richard Daley, who could put together a p o lit ic a l




284
-1 4 machine that would transcend v ir tu a lly a l l formal ju r isd ic tio n a l
bounds.

In any case, the c i t i e s selected must vary over a number of

these p o lit ic a l dimensions.
4.

Federal Spending.

Because a major objective of the research

program w ill be to analyze the impact of existing federal policy on urban
areas as a basis fo r estimating the e ffe c t of future policy v a ria tio n s,
the use of the federal purse is obviously cru cia l.

On the revenue sid e ,

although both the quantity of federal tax money and the pattern in
which i t is taken out of an area are both important, at le a st there is
a necessarily uniform p o lic y .

This is not so for spending.

Urban areas

vary su b stan tially according to the share of federal m ilita ry expenditures
they a ttr a c t, and in the case of San Jose the variation of these expendi­
tures

over time seems to be a crucial factor affectin g change.

The

same may be true for S e a ttle , although i t should be noted that i t was
a decline in c iv ilia n a ir c r a ft production at Boeing that h it S e a ttle ’ s
economy, not a change in m ilitary spending.

On the c i v i l expenditure

sid e , geographic variation in the federal impact is lik e ly to be le s s ,
simply because discretionary federal c i v i l expenditures are smaller than
m ilitary

expenditures (by "discretio n ary" is meant federal expenditures

net of major items lik e so c ia l security, which are distributed auto­
m atically ju s t as taxes are collected autom atically).

Nonetheless, i t

w ill be necessary to examine c i v i l expenditures, particu larly in the
s o cia l f i e ld s , as they go d iffe r e n tia lly to various urban areas.

One

hypothesis may be, "them that has, g e t s ," because the "haves" seem to
possess, among other things, better pipelines into Washington.
5.

S iz e .

c i t i e s studied.

Another obvious dimension to be varied is the s iz e of
While i t seems unlikely that we w ill analyze a c ity

as big or complex as New York (p articu larly since, as noted below, we
have other ways to get data and analyses from New York to add to our
g en era liza tio n s), we propose to consider American c it ie s of other
s iz e s .
boundry;

A central c ity population of 100,000 may w ell be a lower
the upper boundary i s lik e ly to be Los Angeles and/or

Chicago.




285
"156.

Location.

F in ally, we must know to what degree generaliza­

tions are lik e ly to hold for urban areas in d iffe re n t regions of the
United States.

Regional variation has been implied in the above

discussion, for example, where p o li t ic a l structure has been mentioned.
We have started on the West Coast and propose to move to the Midwest
in the near future.

Our sample w ill include urban areas in both the

East and the South.

H isto ric a l and cu ltu ral variations — and quite

possibly climate — seem lik e ly to make fo r important d ifferen ces.

The o bjective w ill be to choose eight to ten urban areas fo r
analysis so that various points within the relevant ranges of variation
on each o f these six axes are represented.

For each dimension, i t w ill

be important to have at le a st one area representing a "moderately
extreme" value fo r each end of that axis ( e . g . , not New York, but Los
Angeles, Chicago, and/or Philadelphia).
also be important to

For each dimension, i t w ill

have reasonable representation of intermediate

p oin ts. This means, then, that we need growing and declining urban
areas and central c i t i e s , and c i t i e s in d iffe re n t stages of growth;
need c itie s with old industries and with new ones;
severe so cia l problems and without such problems;

we need urban areas

with central c ity dominance and with more diffused power;
c it ie s with both strong and weak central governance;
with d ifferen t le ve ls of federal spending;
and sm all;

we

we need c it ie s with

we need

we need c i t i e s

we need large c i t i e s '

we need c it ie s in the East and South as well as in the

Midwest and West.

Even with eight to ten c i t i e s , providing eight to

ten points on each a x is, we w ill be nowhere near the order of
magnitude that would be needed for s t a t i s t i c a l induction, but should
be able to iden tify the range of variations in the relevant dimensions.
How well the ranges are represented w ill ultim ately depend le ss on the
number and nature o f sample points chosen than on the depth of analysis
we can bring to each sample urban area.

81-745 O - 72 - pt. 1 --1 9




286
-1 6 Indeed, given th is kind of a n a ly sis, i t may be possible to begin
to generalize — very ten tativ ely — even from a sample of one.

Our

San Jose/Santa Clara County study, fo r example, has begun to indicate
quite strongly that Federal and sta te policy put together leave remarkably
l i t t l e space for lo c a l decisionmakers to a ffe c t lo c a l fu tu res.

On the

Federal sid e, p o lic ie s not ordinarily thought of as "urban" have major,
perhaps even overwhelming impact,

The cause of San J ose 's rapid growth

in the la s t two decades has been the m ilitary procurement which has
b u ilt up San Jose industries and turned i t into both a major electron ics
center and a heavily populated area.

Federal tax policy tends to

encourage land speculation, which has made lo c a l control even more
d iffic u lt.

And sta te policy has constrained the devices with which

lo c a l decisionmakers could deal with the e ffe c ts of growth and specula­
tio n .

This is detailed in the companion San Jose report.

Although no

generalization about the national e ffe c ts of Federal or sta te constraints
can be b u ilt on th is one case, i t suggests important issu es tc be in v e sti­
gated intensively in our other urban studies with a view toward general­
iza tio n .

I f we can pinpoint why Federal p o lic ie s of th is type have

affected San Jose th is way, and how and why they a ffe c t other c i t i e s
that d iffe r from San Jose in the various dimensions, we may be able
to say a great deal about the e ffe c ts of such national p o lic ie s on
d ifferen t sorts of c i t i e s and the e ffe c ts changes in these p o lic ie s might
ultim ately have.
The basis described here in selecting urban areas for depth analysis
i s s t i l l very general indeed.

Using ideas lik e these,however, (together

with more in stitu tio n a l and mundane considerations of our a b ilit y to
mount studies in particular areas and the long-run payoff from such
stu d ie s), we have chosen our f i r s t areas, as discussed below.

Each

new s i t e chosen w ill be influenced by our past insights and a n a ly sis.
Our understanding of these dimensions and problems i s s t i l l imperfect —
far too imperfect to permit laying out a complete ana ly tica l program at
th is time.




Indeed, the imperfection of our understanding is the reason

287
-1 7 -

that we want to carry out th is program in the f i r s t place.

However,

we do have some a p r i o r i perceptions about the kinds of urban problems
that e x ist and their in te n sity , perceptions that lead us to b elieve
that analysis of this sort can be important and u sefu l.

These same

perceptions have enabled us to c la s s ify urban areas and set up our
i n i t i a l dimensions.

As we develop our analyses, however, new under­

standing may well lead us to want to a lte r the dimensions.
We have started one analysis — of San Jose and Santa Clara
County — and have proposed another — S e a ttle , — largely because of
i t s known and important variations from San Jose along the particular
axis of growth and decline — the f i r s t example of th is sequential
choice.

In addition, we proposed to study a c ity that i s quite d iffe re n t

from either San Jose or S eattle — S t. Louis — to begin a sequence on
another b asis from that started with San Jose, although these sequences
must necessarily interact at la te r stages.

These choices are discussed

in more d e ta il in Part I I I .
Beyond these i n i t i a l analyses, the next set of se le c tio n s,
beginning toward the end of the f i r s t year of the program, w ill 'depend
very heavily on the problems illuminated by the f i r s t s e t.

We know

that we w ill need more regional v ariatio n , a beginning in the East
and the South, and more in the Midwest.
Philadelphia, or Worcester or Trenton;
or Charlotte;

But whether to go to Boston,
to A tlan ta, Birmingham, Houston

to Cleveland, D etroit or Peoria — w ill depend on what we

learn in San Jose, S e a ttle, and St. Louis.

Whether to include Toronto

as a control — a large U .S .-s t y le English-speaking c ity lacking ra c ia l
tensions — a p o s s ib ility suggested in our July proposal, w ill be
determined by the resu lts of our i n i t i a l analysis.
In any case, our basis for generalization w ill not stem from the
eight to ten depth analyses alone.

Rather, these w ill be supplemented by

two additional portions of our research strategy.

One of these is a set

of le s s expensive p a rtia l analyses in a number of areas where for various
reasons such analyses would appear to have a high payoff r e la tiv e to their




288
-1 8 c o s ts .

In Dayton, Ohio, Rand is doing substantial so cia l analysis in con­

nection with the study of the e ffe c ts of cable te le v isio n ; expanding the
so cia l portion qf th is research i s lik e ly to give us an extra fu ll-blow n
sample point at very low cost.

Dayton seems lik e ly to provide a

sample point some distance from our i n i t i a l ones along a number of
axes.

Given our i n i t i a l emphasis on the West Coast, San Francisco

would not be so interesting per se.

Nonetheless, the p o s s ib ilit y of

other relevant Rand work in San Francisco may w ell make a small
addition of e ffo r t there p r o fita b le .

In addition to these two, the

New York City-Rand In stitu te has, in the past three years, generated a
wide variety of analyses, some of which — a study of housing abandon­
ment, development of neighborhood observation techniques, an analysis
of population movement and job location — are d ir e c tly relevant to
the themes with which our depth analyses are concerned.

Such existing

and prospective New York analyses w ill provide an additional sample
point for out generalization — a sample point in a c ity that i s too
large for us to handle in depth were we to sta r t from scratch.
These three are examples of supplementary analyses representing
targets of opportunity — permitting us to enrich our basis fo r
generalization with r e la tiv e ly small additional e ffo r t and c o st.

In

subsequent stages o f our research program, we expect to mount another
sort of supplementary a n alysis.

Where our ongoing studies show s p e c ific

gaps in important dimensions of v aria tio n , we may mount narrower studies
of sp e c ific phenomena in urban areas where these gaps can be f i l l e d .
I f , fo r example, analyses of race relation s indicate two polar types of
areas among those covered, but we know that intermediate urban areas
ex ist and we want sp e c ific information about such intermediate areas,
s p e c ific narrower and le ss expensive analyses may be undertaken in
these areas.
And f i n a lly , as a supplement to the eight to ten w hole-city
analyses, we w ill expect to use more aggregated data from census and
other sources to obtain some idea of proportions.

We may know the

difference between San Jose and Dayton, between S eattle and




289
-1 9 -

S t. Louis — but for purposes of generalization, we also must know
what proportion of American urban areas are represented by a San
Jose or a S e attle, what proportion by a Dayton or a St. Louis.
To conclude, we are aiming for a combination of planned variation
and depth analysis as exemplified by our i n i t i a l report on San Jose.
W are not anticipating universal generalizations where i t can be said
e
that, "This is true of American c i t i e s . "

I t i s more lik e ly that our

generalizations w ill refer to d iffe r e n tia l impact of sp e c ific p o lic ie s
on s p e c ific problems in varied c i t i e s ;
variation along the several axes.

that is why we emphasize

Thus, our generalizations must

depend upon structured judgment of the type outlined above.

INSTITUTIONAL FACTORS IN CHOICE O CITIES
F
In addition to providing a b asis fo r generalization , our choice of
urban areas for analyses must also depend heavily on in stitu tio n a l
considerations;

our a b ilit y to do analyses in a sp e c ific area

( e . g . , the a v a ila b ility of lo cal cooperation and of data); the lo c a l
payoffs,

both long- and short-run, from the analyses;

to use other Rand work relevant to the area.

and our a b ilit y

Wherever there i s rea l

c o n flic t between the c r ite r ia for generalization and the in stitu tio n a l
c r ite r ia for choice, generalization w ill have to receive f i r s t con­
sideration .

For example, we are not going to stay out of the South

because analyses might be more d i f f i c u lt there.
Nonetheless, the a b ilit y to do analyses is quite important.

This

w ill depend on a number of considerations:
1,

The cooperation and in terest of lo c a l people and organizations.

Cooperation of lo c a l o f f i c i a l s w ill not s u ffic e alone.

Private i n s t i ­

tu tion s, such as banks, which are frequently sources of esse n tia l data,
minority organizations and community action groups, and academic
in s titu tio n s , must a l l be so lic ite d for cooperation.

Thus fa r , we

have been fortunate in our i n i t i a l choice of areas, in that such
cooperation seems to be forthcoming with l i t t l e d i f fi c u lt y .
Appendix 1)

(See

Indeed, the assurance of such cooperation was a major

reason for the i n i t i a l choice of San Jose.




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2.

Informed A ssistan ce.

20

-

Cooperation must not only be forthcoming:

i t must be informed cooperation.

In San Jose, c ity and county o f f i c i a l s

at a l l levels have an excellent reputation for competence and we had
l i t t l e worry on th is score.

What was perhaps more surprising, however,

i s that in S t. Louis, which has a reputation as an "o ld lin e " c ity , the
a b ilit y of lo c a l o f f i c i a l s and private individuals was also g ra tify in g ly
high.

This may not be the case everywhere, however.
3.

Data.

As our San Jose report shows, the methods we

use depend heavily on the gathering, reduction, and analysis of quantita­
tiv e data.

Rand has extraordinary ca p a b ilitie s fo r handling and organizing

large quantities of data, and we expect in each case to make use of these
fa c ilitie s .

For each urban area we enter, we w ill make intensive in v e sti­

gation of sources and a v a ila b ility of data ranging across economic, demo­
graphic, p o li t ic a l, and a ttitu d in a l categories.
come from a number of sources.

Such data ordinarily

The 1970 census, becoming available at

an ideal time for th is research program, covers a l l urban areas.
using the census is neither simple nor t r i v i a l .

But

The Rand computing

f a c i li t y has put substantial e ffo r t into organizing a capability to use
census data.

Appendix 2A contains a description of Rand's approach to

census data.

Beyond the census, however, much of the s t a t i s t i c a l m aterial

to be used comes from other fe d e ra l, sta te , lo c a l and private sources.
I t i s necessary to integrate such s t a t i s t i c a l series on matters lik e
employment, ethnic d istrib u tio n by area and school d i s t r i c t , land
use, economic projection, p o li t ic a l behavior and attitu des with one
another and with the census data.

Appendices 2B and C contain our

i n i t i a l approach to simple id e n tific a tio n of such data for the nation
and for C aliforn ia.

Beyond id e n tific a tio n , of course, u t iliz a t io n

requires some degree of s t a t i s t i c a l soph istication .

Our San Jose

report again provides an example here.
In many cases, however, existin g data series w ill not s u ffic e .
In particu lar, an important phase of many studies concerns public
a ttitu d e s.

A ttitu din al surveys ex ist in large numbers for many

areas, of course, but frequently their quality is not high.

In San

Jose, for example, public a ttitu des toward "urban sprawl" are important,




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21-

and at le a st one existing survey touches on th is .

But the survey is

d e fic ien t, and we expect to mount a small e ffo r t of our own, both to
pin down these attitudes in differen t population groups, and to obtain
other information, concerning in particular past and prospective
m obility of people in San Jose.
4.

Assistance to Local Problem Solving.

The other major in s titu ­

tion al question concerning selectio n of urban areas, in addition to our
capability to mount a study in such an area, concerns the lo c a l payoffs
from such a study.

These may be of two types.

One is our d irect help

to lo c a l o f f i c i a l s and private citize n s on lo c a l problems.

This w i l l,

of course, be proportional to the quality of the analysis we provide
and to the in terest of lo c a l people in i t .

Our method of operation

has been, and w ill continue to be, to work clo sely with lo c a l o f f i c i a l s
and to respond to their needs in ways which f i t w ell with our overa ll
c a p a b ilitie s .

These c a p a b ilitie s under th is program are not primarily

for rapid-response operational research;

although the New York City-Rand

In stitu te provides some assistance of that type, this ic not Rand’ s
ordinary contribution, nor is i t proposed here.

Rather, we w i l l work

with lo c a l o f f i c i a l s on operational aspects of the basic problems with
which this program i s concerned.

One example is the c ity of San J ose's

desire to obtain long-run cost estimates for the public services which
w ill be committed when new housing tracts are opened;

because our

central concern in San Jose i s with problems of growth, th is operational
aspect is closely aligned with our g oals.

Sim ilarly in S e a ttle , as part

of our project to examine the constraints put on S e a ttle ’ s future by i t s
current economic d is tr e s s , we w ill be working both with a current city
government project on "go als for S e a t t le ," and with the University of
Washington on their e ffo r t to id entify economic recovery options for
the area.

For th is sort of participation with lo c a l o f f i c i a l s and

in stitu tio n s in searching for solutions to problems of common in te r e st,
the kind of funding we have been receiving from the National Science
Foundation, which allows us to be responsive to lo c a l in te re sts without
being respon sible to them, i s very appropriate.
As important as our immediate assistance is the question of what we
leave behind us.




In each of these cases we are talking about an urban

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-2 2 -

area study lastin g roughly one year, and in few or none of them do we
expect to remain in the area in stitu tio n a lly on any continuing basis
*
W w i ll work with lo c a l people and in stitu tio n s
e

much beyond one year.

and try to leave behind not only a deeper understanding of lo c a l pro­
blems and a set of policy options, but also a continuing a b ilit y to
carry out required a n alysis.

This w ill mean special e ffo r t on our part

and also development of a lo c a l capability to absorb our techniques
and approaches.

W are, in f a c t , talking about two kinds of lo c a l
e

c ap ab ility, not one.

One of these is the building of a methodological

capability within public in stitu tio n s.

As noted above, both the c ity

of San Jose and Santa Clara County have the a b ility to carry out some
ana ly tica l work.

The same is lik e ly to be true in St. Louis and S e a ttle ,

other c it ie s we have approached seriously for our f i r s t phase.
5.

University R elationships.

Perhaps even more interesting and

more important than developing a public capability to continue th is
sort of analyses, however, is the exploiting of private in stitu tio n a l
a b i li t i e s .

These are found primarily -in lo c a l academic in s titu tio n s ,

and we have been making special e ffo r ts to involve these in stitu tio n s
in each area we have entered or intend to enter.

We have found that

lo c a l u n iversities are anxious to provide policy assistan ce, particu­
la rly on the sort of urban problems in which we are most in terested ,
but are frequently not w ell organized to do so.
experience can be an important cata lyst here.

Rand’ s policy
To take the three major

examples on which we have begun:
a.

In San Jose/Santa Clara County, Professor Benton Massell

of Stanford (Palo Alto is in northern Santa Clara County) has begun to
work with the County, particu larly on problems of lo c a l assessment
practices and of supply and demand for housing.

We, in turn, have

been working with Massell — who was Director of the NSF-funded Summer

In New York C ity, of course, the New York City-Rand In stitu te
which antedates this program is a continuing in stitu tio n .
Such
in stitu te s have been discussed in one or two other c i t i e s , although such
discussions have not been d irectly connected with the program ‘described
here. Any place such an in s titu te is set up in p a ra lle l we w i l l , of
course, try to take advantage of i t s existence, but such a continuing
in stitu tio n a lize d program is quite d iffe re n t from that discussed here.




293
-2 3 -

In stitu te for College and University Teachers in Urban Economics at
Stanford, and i s a ffi lia t e d with the Stanford In stitu te of Public
Policy Analysis — not merely to bring him into our e ffo r t as an
individual, but also to in stitu tio n a liz e h is relationship on a
continuing b asis.
future.

This e ffo r t seems lik e ly to bear fr u it in the near

In addition, in th is area, the principal investigator on th is

proposal w ill become a V isitin g Professor of Public Policy on the
faculty of the Stanford Business School for two days a week, beginning
in January 1972.

This double connection with Stanford is the beginning

of our adaptation to lo c a l needs in that area.
b.

In S e attle, the In stitu te for Government Research at the

University of Washington has received a Ford Foundation grant to provide
immediate assistance to lo c a l public o f f i c i a l s , particularly in analysis
related to economic recovery.

W worked with the In stitu te on their
e

grant proposal, and since the grant was received we have been working
with Llieai uu Llieil program.

In a general sense they arc working on the

short-run;

we in our own program expect to work on the intermediate to

long-run.

These d iffe re n t time frames cannot be divorced, however, and

we expect to continue the kind cff feedback mechanism that we have
already begun, with the ultimate objective of enabling the In stitu te
a fter a year to carry on the kind of work we have in itia te d , as w ell as
the kind they have begun.
c.

In S t. Louis, the situ ation d iffe r s because a number of

lo c a l u n iversities have excellent but d iffe rin g c a p a b ilitie s.

These can

be characterized in a general way by saying that the Washington University
In stitu te for Urban and Regional Studies i s "conceptual" and national
in i t s in terests — a broad "n a tio n a l" research center p a r a lle l in a
way to Harvard and Yale Law Schools as "n a tio n a l" law schools.

St.

Louis U niversity, on the other hand, is equally capable, le ss conceptual,
and closer to lo cal problems.

W have begun discussions with both
e

of these in s titu tio n s, and intend in the near future to approach the
third of St. L o u is's f i r s t -r a t e u n iv e rsitie s, the University of Missouri




294
-2 4 -

at St. Louis.

The academics we have talked with have expressed a

desire to get together with each other and with us on urban research —
and lo c a l o f f i c i a l s and foundations have expressed support fo r these
in it ia t iv e s .

The general feelin g is that Rand, as an outside ca ta ly st,

w ill be extremely usefu l in bringing together the group which could,
in the future, provide much assistance to policymakers in the S t.
Louis area.
In each case, we have been trying to build long-run university-based
c ap ab ilitie s for the kind of policy analyses we have been carrying out
in our program.

The c a p a b ilitie s now ex ist in embryo;

the problem in

each area is to bring such embryos through periods of gestation and
create in s titu tio n a l c a p a b ilitie s adapted to the particular areas.
6.

Other Rand Work.

The fin a l in stitu tio n a l question concerned

with choice of urban areas is the feedback possible from other ongoing
Rand work.

The primary example — our hope to build on the work of the

New York City-Rand In stitu te — has already been mentioned.

The In stitu te

is and must be primarily c lie n t-o r ie n te d , and has l i t t l e time to ask
i t s e l f general questions concerning common themes that jo in the various
stu dies.

In this case, and in others discussed below ( e . g . , Dayton

and San Francisco), we have hopes, as part of this program, to enrich
Rand c a p a b ilitie s to build on immediate c lien t-o rien ted studies to
answer more general questions.

Ordinarily, such study enrichment w ill

not form the basis for the i n i t i a l choice of a c ity in our sample of
eight to ten, but rather supplement the sample, as described above.
A bibliography of other Rand urban work is included as Appendix 3.




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III.

FIRST-YEAR PLAN

The previous sections have outlined our general strategy for
choice of urban areas for analyses and our expectations regarding
policy generalization from such analyses.

We have pointed out that

because we are talking about a program continuing over a number of
years and because we expect to apply lessons learned from ea rlier
studies to the making of la te r choices, we cannot now lay out in d e ta il
the sp e c ific resu lts of th is strategy for choice.

W have, however,
e

determined on the steps which w ill be begun in the f i r s t year of the
program.

These choices and the reasons for making them are both

important in themselves and w ill help illum inate the overall strategy.

Major Studies
Our program w ill begin with three major urban analyses we expect
to sta r t in the l i i a l yeai — iii Che metropolitan areas of San vJosG,
St. Louis, and S e attle.
1.

Our i n i t i a l study of the San Jose urban area was begun 1 July

under a planning grant from the National Science Foundation.

The

reason for startin g in San Jose was primarily in s titu tio n a l.

At about

the time we began to plan th is program of urban analysis and to lay out
the methodologies associated with i t , San Jose City Manager Thomas
Fletcher came to Rand to ask us to consider investigating a problem
with which he was very much seized , that of growth in the San Jose
area.

Rapid growth had dominated the area fo r two decades, and City

Manager Fletcher wanted analysis of stra te gie s he could use to control
th is growth.

We were interested in carrying out the analysis for a

number of reasons.

The f i r s t and most obvious one was that we were

approached at the right time, when we were looking for areas to which
to apply this new program.

In addition, Fletcher’ s problem, although

not the f i r s t item that would come to one’ s mind under the rubric
"urban c r i s i s , " seemed representative of a class of major urban problems
too frequently ignored.

Yet in a sense, i t was a "good" problem — one

on which we could develop our methodology in a way that would be




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-2 6 -

re la tiv e ly free from the pressures associated with the acute problems
of many American c i t i e s .

I t would enable us to get a feelin g for

how to work in these areas and to tool up for more d i f f i c u lt e ffo r ts
that would ultim ately dominate our program simply because such problems
aw

dominate the American urban scene.

In addition to th is reason for

choice, San Jose and Santa Clara County have had an excellent reputation
for top-notch administration.

The recent choice of Fletcher as City

Manager confirmed t h is , but i t has long been f e l t to be generally true.
Furthermore, and not unconnected with the administrative reputation,
excellent data have been known to be available for that area.

F in a lly ,

San Jose was near enough to Santa Monica for us to be able to begin
there with r e la tiv e ease.

The San Jose study is somewhat le s s than

one-third through at present.

It is reported on in A lt e r n a t i v e

Growth S t r a t e g ie s f o r San J o se :
A n a ly sis P r o j e c t 3
2.

The I n i t i a l R ep ort o f th e Rand Urban

the companion piece to this study.

The second study w ill be of neighborhood change and abandon­

ment in St. Louis.

As noted above, we knew that San Jose was sp e c ia l,

r e la tiv e ly easy, and not typ ical of the "urban c r i s i s " (although i t
should also be noted that i f enough c it ie s are a ty p ical, th is would
raise a question about the meaning of the "urban c r i s i s " ) .

Having

started on San Jose, we wanted a very d iffe re n t problem area, one more
nearly r eflec tin g the conventional cross-sectio n of urban problems.
S t. Louis is almost a polar opposite of San Jose on our two major
problem axes discussed above.

San Jose has been growing rap id ly, the

c ity of St. Louis has been declining.

San Jose has "s o c ia l problems"

in the conventional sense only in a minor way — i t has roughly a 12%
Mexican-American minority and, as noted in our San Jose report, the
neighborhoods characterized by the greatest minority and poverty problems
appear almost untouched by the central change phenomenon of the c ity .

I t i s important to specify that i t is the c ity that has been
declining;
the metropolitan area had a very small net in-m igration in
the 1960-70 decade. This is a major reason why we chose St. Louis as
the focus of a study of neighborhood abandonment; we wanted to look at
such abandonment i n i t i a l ly primarily as a so cia l phenomenon, abstracting
from the problems of economic decline of the whole area, which we w ill
get into at a la ter stage.




297
-2 7 -

The urban core of St. Louis is dominated by neighborhood change,
ra c ia l tension, poverty, and related so cia l problems.

In addition,

S t. Louis w ill move us out of the Far West and into a new region as
well as a new and acute cla ss of problems.
We wanted to consider the kind of acute problems characterized by
neighborhood change and abandonment in St. Louis.
not the only c ity with such problems:
to Newark, to D etroit.

But St. Louis is

we could have gone to Cleveland,

W
hy St. Louis in particular?

The answer to

th is is to be found in the in stitu tio n a l basis for choice as w ell as
*
the need for sampling gen eralization .
The St. Louis Standard Metropolitan S t a tis t ic a l Area i s esse n tia lly
self-con tain ed and the c ity can expect to have continuity in government,
at le a s t for a while.

In addition, on the in stitu tio n a l le v e l, St. Louis

has people in both the c ity government and academic in stitu tio n s with
whom we can work, as noted above.

On th is b a sis, we v is ite d St. Louis,

discussed the p o s s ib ilit y of such a study with public o f f i c i a l s ,
academics, and others. The v i s i t convinced us that St. Louis provided
a combination of important problems very d ifferen t from the ones we had
encountered in San Jose, and c a p a b ilitie s to carry out a study that
would be useful both at lo c a l and national le v e ls , with strong p o s s ib ili­
t i e s , beyond the study i t s e l f , of helping the c ity with the creation of
an enduring in s titu tio n a l cap ab ility.
3.
S e a ttle.

The third area we expect to include early in the program is
I f San Jose was chosen largely for in stitu tio n a l reasons,

and St.. Louis largely because of the nature of i t s problems and as a
planned variation in our overall program, Seattle was chosen fo r a
combination of reasons of both so rts.

I t marks our f i r s t application of

sequential selection to the choice of areas for an alysis.

At the very

Ultim ately, we may well want to carry out an analysis for Cleveland,
among other reasons as a comparison with St. Louis, but Cleveland i s about
to undergo a change of c ity administration, making th is a bad time to
begin a study. Newark is part of the New York City urban area and i s more
d i f f i c u lt to study alone for that reason; one hope is that under th is
program we can extend the focus of the New York City-Rand In stitu te into
parts of the metropolitan area beyond the c ity to which they are
primarily responsible.




298
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28-

beginning of our San Jose study, the central problem that emerged was
that the c ity and i t s metropolitan area were heavily dependent
economically upon a'rapid rate of growth, a rate that could not possibly
continue in d e fin ite ly and, indeed, seemed to be slowing down (th is is
detailed in the i n i t i a l report on San J o s e ).

A major policy im plication for

San Jose is that i t should be thinking hard about adapting to
the slowdown in growth.
growth sequence.

S eattle apparently marks another stage in th is

S eattle is in the throes of adapting to a sudden turn­

down without having been prepared for i t .

W believe that this process
e

is an extremely important one in American c i t i e s .

Many Midwestern and

Eastern c itie s have long since gone through th is "peaking out” and have
eith er been rev ita lized or are s t i l l in the throes of adaptation;
Jose is a city that may be reaching this peak;

Seattle is one that it

seems possible for us to capture in the tra n sition a l s ta te .
a very important sample point.

San

This can be

In addition, S e a ttle ’ s problems of

attempting to recover economically and to adapt to the current recession
are important ones in their own rig h t.
Added to t h is , again, are the in stitu tio n a l fa c to r s.

There is a

marked degree of cap ability and in terest in the governments of both the
c ity of Seattle and of King County.

The c it y , in addition to strug­

gling with the economic recovery problem, as is every ju risd ic tio n in
the Puget Sound area, is carrying out a project to determine "g o a ls’1
for S e a ttle , and for this reason has been interested in our delineating
an a ly tica lly a series of alternative futures for Seattle to mesh with
their goals e f fo r t .

In addition, as noted above, the University of

Washington's In stitu te for Governmental Research is carrying on
a c tiv itie s which would be p a ra llel t o , but differen t from ours, and
we have established excellent working relationships with the U niversity.
These in stitu tio n a l reasons confirm those factors which can make S eattle
an important sample point for our program and have, th erefore, led us
to direct our e ffo r ts toward th is area.




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Supplementary Studies
In addition to these three major "w h o le-city " analyses, a number
of supplementary e ffo r ts beginning in the f i r s t year of the program
are also proposed.
1.

W w ill begin a r e la tiv e ly low -level planning e ffo r t
e

for a

subsequent study concerning the p o s s ib ilit ie s of resid en tial desegre­
gation in Los Angeles.

Here, the i n i t i a l considerations for doing

th is are in s titu tio n a l.

F irst of a l l , Rand is located in the Los

Angeles area, and we fe e l that a major long-run a nalytical e ffo r t to
examine policy problems in American c itie s should not leave out a major
urban area of th is nature with which we must be directly concerned.
Second, a number of important opportunities ex ist for cooperation
with other ongoing work in in stitu tio n s in the Los Angeles area.

An

existing R N grant is funding LosAngeles Technical Services to id en tify
AN
needed an alytical work in the Los Angeles area and existing and needed
data sources.

The LATS grant has not produced any analyses;

not intended to.

i t was

But Rand a na ly tica l work, in cooperation with LATS,

can have a major payoff for both grants.

The LATS1 role in th is would

be to identify data, a s s is t with analyses, and to aid the study by
using i t s excellent working relationship with the city government of
Los Angeles.

In addition, the Metropolitan Applied Research Center,

a national group headed by Professor Kenneth Clark, has been interested
in beginning some an a ly tica l work on the West Coast.

Professor Clark,

Professor Hylan Lewis, and others associated with M R have been quite
AC
interested in our desegretation study design and are anxious to work
with us on i t .

They have already provided one researcher to work with

Rand, both as training for him and to a s s is t the study in taking o f f .
Beyond th is , M R can be expected to aid with both a n alytical capability
AC
and access to the Los Angeles black community — access which is
obviously needed in any kind of desegregation study.




And f i n a lly , we

300
-3 0 have been carrying on discussions with The United Way, Los Angeles'
Community Chest c o a litio n , which is interested in commencing a
community planning e f fo r t , to which we might be of major assistan ce.
A third related reason for looking seriously at Los Angeles is that
other relevant Rand work is being carried on here.

Just being completed

is an HEW-sponsored study of p o s s ib ilit ie s fo r desegregation of the Los
Angeles schools.

This is being done on an austere b a sis, and is con­

cerned primarily with r a c ia l mixes and bussing times.

A study of

resid en tial desegregation p o s s ib ilit ie s in Los Angeles such as we have
proposed, could build upon and enrich th is , investigating the in te r­
actions between segregation/desegregation processes in schools and
residences, and looking across the many so cia l and p o lit ic a l factors
that rea lly determine whether and what kinds of desegregation are
workable.
In addition, Los Angeles, even though i t would be our third West
Coast c ity , can be important to our mode of generalization.

Looking

at various of the axes for variation discussed above, Los Angeles might
be considered:
-

a bigger "San Jose" - with serious growth decisions in i t s future

-

a more d iv ersified "S e a t tle " - seriously affected by federal
funding decisions
a more open "S t . Louis" - from an in stitu tio n a l standpoint

This la s t is quite important.

Race is one of the two central problems

we need to examine in American c i t i e s .

And Los Angeles is a c ity with

major racial problems — not, perhaps, to the degree found in St.
Louis, but s t i l l major.
and Mexican-Americans.

Los Angeles has two large m in orities, blacks
I t is quite segregated by most c r it e r ia .

Yet

the city of Los Angeles and the metropolitan area seem to be s o c ia lly
"open" in approaching problems as compared to many other American c i t i e s ,
probably including St. Louis.




Although much of the Los Angeles

301
-3 1 -

population — both white and black — originated in the South or
other primarily rural areas, the c ity i s imbued with both a degree of
West Coast liberalism

and some of the fro n tier type optimism that

s t i l l exists in the West eighty years a fter the fro n tier closed.

In

addition, race in Los Angeles is not associated with f i s c a l problems
of the sort found elsewhere.

Things seem p o ssib le.

I f there is hope for

real desegregation, i t may sta rt in the West rather than St. Louis,
Cleveland, Newark, or even New York, which is generally considered the
most lib e r a l of American c i t i e s .

(An altern ative th e sis, however, i s

that in fa ct desegregation would be more d i f f i c u lt in Los Angeles
because the c ity is dominated by a "sm all -town" ethos.

W intend to
e

use voting and a ttitu d in a l data to examine such hypotheses.)

In any

case, i t is possible that Los Angeles may provide the key to under­
standing and solution of the crucial national problems centered on
ra c ia l segregation and discrim ination.
xevex

ouuuy

i- -

_

LO uc a

------- -

j------ j

bLdi. L lu w u lu

W intend th is i n i t i a l low
e
___

j. j_ina jl ng, uUu.

W ithal, we want to begin looking at Los Angeles at a low le v e l of
e ffo r t:

because three major studies in the f i r s t year are a l l we want

to commit ourselves to at a time of build-up;

because Los Angeles is

bigger and more complex than any other c ity we have proposed to study.
(As noted, we do not propose to do th is set of analyses in New York;
Chicago is lik e ly to depend sequentially upon the outcome in Los Angeles.)
In addition, we want to go slowly on Los Angeles because i t is on the
West Coast lik e San Jose and S e a ttle, and we want to make a iuajor
commitment in the East.
2.

An additional project w ill supplement on-going Rand research

in Dayton, Ohio.

The Rand communications research program is conduct­

ing an analysis of the uses of cable TV, with particular emphasis on
i t s use as a medium for various sorts of community a c t i v i t i e s .

Dayton

i s the sample point which has been chosen for this study, and because
of the nature of the study — stressing so cia l rather than technical
aspects of cable TV — a p a rtia l analysis of the so cia l structure of
Dayton i s ’ included in the study.

Among other c h a ra c teristic s, Dayton

o ffe r s the unique opportunity to compare ecological indices of urban

81-745 O - 72 - pt. 1 -- 2 0




302
-3 2 -

change with a ttitu d e changes among lo c a l residen ts.

A recent survey of

Dayton area residents has already shown that v ir tu a lly no people, i f
given the choice, would want to move from the suburbs to the central
c ity .

Such a preference i s not surprising in view of the p o ten tia lly

serious so cia l problems in Dayton, and in lig h t of the recent and
sig n ifica n t population decline in the central c ity .

But what i s

fascinating is the opportunity to study, through subsequent surveys,
how such resid e n tial attitudes may be both causes and e ffe c ts of urban
change.

Moreover, in the context of our group of c i t i e s , Dayton serves

as a good sample point.

I t is a Midwestern c ity much smaller than St.

Louis, but with many sim ilar c h aracteristics.

In addition, while i t is

far differen t from a c ity lik e San Jose, i t s economy shares some of the
m ilitary bases (a very large Air Force in s ta lla tio n , Wright-Patterson
AFB, is ju s t outside Dayton), and the c ity varies on a number but not
a l l of the axes discussed above.
3.

Another p o s s ib ility is that under other auspices Rand may begin

work in San Francisco which w i ll ultim ately be sim ilar to what is being
done in New York City.

One aspect of Rand’ s proposal for San Francisco

has been a look at change and growth in much the same manner as we
have been analyzing i t in San Jose.

San Francisco, unlike San Jose,

is constrained — v ir tu a lly any growth w ill have to be upward — and
whether th is growth should be encouraged is a major problem for lo c a l
policymakers.

Because of our i n i t i a l concentration on the West Coast,

we would not ordinarily contemplate mounting an additional study in
San Francisco, but i f the other Rand work there m aterializes, we intend
to in vestigate the p o s s ib ility of a high payoff from a small additional
expenditure.
4.

More firm and more important, however, is an additional study

that w ill begin to gather relevant experience from the New York C ityRand In s titu te .

New York City and the New York metropolitan area are

far too big to be the scene of whole-city analyses lik e those in San
Jose and St. Louis.

But the New York City-Rand In stitu te has been

carrying out both sp e c ific operational and general stu dies, many




303
-3 3 -

of which are relevant to our in te re sts.

These include studies o f:

-

Housing abandonment

-

Fire alarm rates as an indicator of neighborhood change

-

Development of participant-observer techniques in the analysis

-

Job location and population movement in the New York metropolitan

of neighborhood change

area and their relation to one another
-

Causes of the increase i f welfare caseloads

Thus far these have not been collected or brought into focus within a
sin gle frame of reference.

Our intention i s to do this to see

whether we can d i s t i l l from the New York studies generalizations about
growth and decline in New York, about so cia l problems in New York, and
about other related problems that are p a r a lle l to the structural and
policy inferences that w ill stem from our w hole-city stu dies.

I t is

not yet clear to what extent such conclusions or hypotheses about New
York w ill be an aid to our overall generalizations;
g en e r is .

New York is su i

But New York is also at one polar end of many of our axes of

in te re st, and generalization w ill be firmer i f th is pole can be included
at modest expense, rather than by treating New York as an extrapolation —
as a big Los Angeles or Chicago.
5.

In addition to studies of sp e c ific c i t i e s , our July proposal

included substantial discussion of a number of possible cross-cuttin g
studies that we hoped we would ultim ately undertake.

These would be

studies of particular aspects of urban l i f e and policy that drew upon
data and observations from a number of c i t i e s .

I t i s unlikely that we

w ill proceed with any of these u n til we have accumulated m aterial from
several c i t i e s .

Nonetheless, a number of these are so in terestin g that

they may be considered during our f i r s t year, before the completion of
most of the i n i t i a l whole-city studies.

Some of the more in teresting

p o s s ib ilit ie s include:
o

A study of the "two black s o c ie tie s " hypothesis.
discussed at some length in our i n i t i a l proposal.

This was
B asica lly ,

i t proposes an investigation of the p o s s ib ility that, while




304
-3 4 blacks are on the average becoming better o ff and more
equal to whites, and most blacks are improving their lo t
su b sta n tia lly , these very fa cts of

improvement are

separating the black majority from a black minority oriented
around welfare and other aspects of so cia l pathology.

The

geographical interpretation of th is hypothesis has been termed
by Walter W illiam s, "The C risis G hetto."

This is the

interpretation that Williams based on a special census taken of
Cleveland in the mid '60s — that the w o rst-off portion of
the black population was becoming increasingly concentrated in
the worst portions of the ghettos, and that these areas were
on the declin e, even as the overall black population was on
the upgrade.
o

An additional cross-cuttin g study, the idea for which stems from
the San Jose a n a ly sis, concerns "th e problems of the a fflu e n t ."
The question i s whether re la tiv e affluence in an urban setting
does not bring with i t i t s own so cia l and psychological problems.
We have had some indication of th is in San Jose, where crime seems
to be a m iddle-class rather than a low-income problem.

One

p o s s ib ility is that, using San Jose as a starting poin t, we may
want to look at a number of urban areas for evidence of th is
phenomenon.

In seeking to discern the future character of urban

problems, i t may be that in the long-run but foreseeable future
the current urgent so c ia l problems associated with poverty w ill
be solved;

lacking Utopia at that point, the next range of

problems may be those we now think of as the problems of the
a fflu en t.
o

Another cross-cutting problem stressed in the July proposal was
the determination of what, in fa c t, constitutes "national urban
p o lic y ."

As part of our basic methodology, we w ill be making

projections for the future of an urban area on the b asis of an

Walter William s, "C leveland's C risis Ghetto, TRANS-aotion_
,
September 1967.




305
-3 5 -

assumption of no fundamental change in current policy — th is
w ill be used as a baseline projection against which to te st
proposed changes in p o lic ie s .
of what current policy i s .
knowledge;

Yet this presupposes a knowledge

In a general sense we have this

in s p e c ific s , i t needs at le a st compilation and

probably su b stan tially more analysis.

W can l i s t the programs
e

and p o lic ies under which the Department of Housing and Urban
Development operates and we can analyze the "zero base" e ffe c ts
of these.

But H D p o lic ie s are only a small part of the whole;
U

we suspect — and our San Jose study seems to be bearing i t out —
that p o lic ie s usually not considered in the "urban" category —
income taxation and m ilitary procurement, for example — are
far more in flu e n tia l in a ffectin g the plight of c it ie s than
are sp e c ific urban p o lic ie s .

I t may be very important, early

in our program, to in it ia t e an investigation of what dominant
current urban p o lic ie s are.
These are some examples of cross-cuttin g analyses.

With the

exception of the la s t one, they are most lik e ly to stem from our
i n i t i a l c ity studies rather than to involve new studies.

I t seems

reasonably certain that, ju s t as i n i t i a l work in San Jose has led us
to consider the "problems of the a f flu e n t ," additional studies w ill
generate additional problems for possible cross-cuttin g analyses.
Rand mode of operation is well adapted to th is p o s s ib ilit y .

The

Under

broad grants of the sort we have applied for here, Rand has been able
to maintain the s e lf-d is c ip lin e necessary to produce policy-relevan t
products over f i n i t e periods of time (the preliminary draft of the
accompanying San Jose report, for example, was submitted to NSF in
six weeks), while allowing i t s s t a f f enough freedom to think beyond
the immediate problem.
This is an esse n tia l part of the process of gen eralization , which
has been the main subject of th is paper.

The kind of in terd iscip lin ary

group that has been assembled to work on San Jose is not only capable
of drawing generalizations from i t s analyses;

such an a b ilit y to

generalize is as much of an in te lle c tu a l payoff as is the a b ilit y to




306
-3 6 -

address the immediate concentrate problems.

Even while the e ffo r t

i s giving considerable attention to immediate c lie n t needs, the core
group now assembled is deliberately working broadly rather than
narrowly.

With the funding requested here, this core group can be

expanded both in siz e and in the number of d iscip lin e s represented
(see July proposal) and the a b ility to work fle x ib ly , both in sp e c ific
areas and on generalized topics w ill be su b stan tially increased.

This,

more than any mechanical method, is the basis of our mode of producing
general policy analysis from the sp e c ific studies undertaken.




307
-3 7 -

APPENDIX 1

CITY

OF

SAN

JOSE

CALIFORNIA

July 2 2 , 1971

C it y H a u l
S a n J o s e , C A C iro nN iA 9 5 1 I D
T elepho ne 2 9 2 -3 1 4 1

CIT Y M A N A G E R

M r . Robert A . Levine
The Rand Corporation
1700 Main Street
Santa M onica, CA 90406

Dear Bob:
I was very pleased that your p ilot program on "systematic analysis of urban policy"
was funded by the National Science Foundation and that ours w ill be the pilot
c ity . I am now even more convinced that Rand's proposed program for the "urban
structure analysis" w ill provide us with some of the tools so badly needed to make
urban p o licy . As you know, I am particularly interested in analytical tools that
\yi!i give us ccrr.c better understanding of urban growth ond to h = nhle to determine
<
what effect alternative proposals for land use would have in our decision-making
process.
We w ill, of course, provide you with all data that we have availab le and access
to people in and out of the City's official structure who can help you understand
the City and its problems.
I hope that our joint efforts w ill provide the funding you need to create the fuli
program using the analytical methods pre-tested in San Jose. I am looking forward
to a long and continued relationship belween Rand and San Jose.




Sincerely,

T.
C ity Manager

308
-38-

CITY O F SEATTLE
DEPARTMENT OF COMMUNITY DEVELOPMENT
400 Seattle Municipal Building • Seattle , Washington 98104

WES UHLMAN, Mayor

JAMES BRAN1AN, Director

Hr. R o b e r t A. L e v i n e
T h e RAND C o r p o r a t i o n
1 7 0 0 M a i n S treet
S a n t a Mo n i c a , C a l i f o r n i a

Augu s t 18, 1971

90406

D e a r Mr. Levi n e :
T h i s letter is a f o l l o w - u p to the d i s c u s s i o n s w h i c h h a v e bee n
g o i n g on p e r i o d i c a l l y o ver the last yea r be t w e e n the RA N D
Co r p o r a t i o n and v a r i o u s o f f icials of the City family, incl u d i n g
f o rmer D e p u t y M a y o r Ri c h a r d Page, B udget D i r e c t o r R. W. Wilkin s o n ,
Jr., and m y A s s i s t a n t D irector, P eter Shepherd.
The. p r o b l e n s of g o a l d e v e l o p m e n t and l o ng - r a n g e analysis a re of
i n t e r e s t to this a d m i n i s t r a t i o n .
At M a y o r Uh l m a n * s direction,
m y staff is n o w u n d e r t a k i n g a n i n e - n o n t h effort to d evelop goals
a nd o b j e c t i v e s for Seattle. Y o u r p r o p o sal to do w o r k in d e v e l o p i n g
" a l t e r n a t e f u t ures" for S eattle st r i k e s us as an e xcellent
c o m p a n i o n p i e c e and f o l l o w - o n to the w o r k w e are p r e s e n t l y doing.
W e also th i n k that City staff w o u l d b e benefited thro u g h a s s o c i a t i o n
w i t h the R A N D C o rporation.
I am, there f o r e , d e l i g h t e d to hear of your N a t i o n a l Sc i e n c e F o u n d a ­
t i o n p l a n n i n g grant.
T he C i t y ’ o w n l i mited f i n a n c i a l reso u r c e s
s
p r e c l u d es our "b u y i n g in" on such a pr o ject on a cash basis.
B ut w e
a r e ce r t a i n l y i n t e r e s t e d in p u r s u i n g d i s c u s s i o n s w i t h a n eye to
S e a t t l e ' s b e c o m i n g o ne of the " pilot cities" in your N S F project.
S i n c e r e ly yours,

cc:

Mayor Wes Uhlman
R. U. W i l k i n s o n , Jr.,
Budget D i r e c t o r




OFFICE OF THE M AYOR
C IT Y

OF SAINT

LOUIS

MISSOURI

A. J.fcCERV ANTES
Wa vo r

Mr. Ro b e r t A. L e v i n e
'The R a n d C o r p o r a t i o n
1700 M a i n Street
Santa M o n ica, C a l i f o r n i a

August 23, 1971

90406

Dear Bob:
I was glad to see you on July 29 and 1 hope that ypu found i t
rewarding.
Y o u r o v e r a l l p r o g r a m as d e s c r i b e d in y o ur p r o p o s a l to the N a t i o n a l
S c i e n c e F o u n d a t i o n can. if it w o r k s nut-, he of g reat use in p r o v i d i n g b a c i c
a n a l y s i s not o n l y of the ove r a l l p r o b l e m s of our city, bu t the a n alysis
that w e need c o n c e r n i n g n e i g h b o r h o o d c h a n g e an d ho u s i n g a b a n d o n m e n t in
St. Louis. B e c a u s e this p r o c e s s has b e e n o c c u r ing wit h such r a p i d i t y in
this city, it is i m p o r t a n t for us to get w h a t e v e r a n a l y t i c a l i n f o r m a t i o n
m a y b e br o u g h t to b e a r an d to r e c e i v e a ny p o l i c y r e c o m m e n d a t i o n s that ar e
c o n s e q u e n t upo n this a n a l y t i c a l information.
A s w e d i s c u s s e d today, the p r o b l e m is not si m p l y one of h o u s i n g in
the C i t y of St. L o u i s b u t it is one that ha s m a n y social d i m e n s i o n s and cuts
a c r o s s the b o u n d a r y lines of the total m e t r o p o l i t a n area.
I find that the
a p p r o a c h of the R a n d C o r p o r a t i o n in this p a r t i c u l a r p r o p o s a l s u b m i t t e d to
the N a t i o n a l S c i e n c e F o u n d a t i o n to be pertin e n t , p r a c t i c a l and v e r y n e c e s s a r y
f r o m the v i e w p o i n t of the C i t y of St. Louis.
P l e a s e f e e l free to c a l l u p o n m e for a n y a d d i t i o n a l help.
I hope
that w h e n the p r o j e c t is f unded that w e w i l l b e seeing m o r e y o u a nd the
o t her R a n d people.




Sincerely,

L u c i u s F . C e rvan t e s , Ph.D.
A s s i s t a n t to t h e M a y o r

310
-40-

M E M O R A N D U M

DATE:
NO.:
TO:

List

FROM:

A. H. Rosenthal

SUBJECT:

8 October 1971
CJM-49

THE PLANS AND STATUS OF THE
1970 CENSUS FILES AT RAND

(Please read memo number CJM-48, dated 5 October before reading
this m e m o .)
Rand has worked closely for the past year with the Bureau of the
Census Field Office in Los Angeles called SCRIS (Southern California
Regional Information Study). We joined the Research/University
sector of SCRIS and, because of this, we have been one of the first
organizations to successfully check out their computer programs.
An example was the Admatch (address matching) OS version program
which will soon be made available to the public. This program
enables the user to match geographic codes to local data files,
such as census tracts, or census blocks (geographic codes) to fire
incidence files. We have used other programs written by SCRIS
during the past months; although these are not as yet available to
the public. Here is a brief description of each of them. They are
intended to be used with the Census 1970 summary tapes.
a) First Count Reporter - This program is used to obtain population,
housing statistics, and age - sex pyramids. Data may be organized
by the standard geographic codes such as census tracts or specially
defined areas such as school or political districts.
b) Census Summary Tape Selecter (Censlct). This is a program to
select and reblock logical records from the census summary tapes.
The program also creates up to five copies of the selected re­
cords. Records may be selected according to certain geographic
codes, such as selecting out Los Angeles and Orange County from
the California Census tapes.




311
TO:

List

6 October 1971
-41-

c) Columnar Aggregation and Tabulation System (CATS). Sometimes
called STRIP (Summary Tape Retrieval and Information Processors).
These are a set of computer programs designed to extract user
selected data from the 1970 census summary tapes. The program
provides for the aggregation of data, data manipulation and
report generation as well as record selection.
d) GRIDS (Grid Related Information Display System). This is a
generalized computer graphics system capable of performing a wide
variety of computer mapping tasks.
We have used each of the above programs with success.
In addition, SCRIS has provided us with the First Count Summary
File for California and a special California MEDLIST (Master
Enumeration District List) file with coordinates. In general, a
MEDLIST file contains the alphabetic descriptions of the geo­
graphic codes used in the summary count tapes and therefore en­
ables the user to identify the codes used. For example, a code 37
in the summary count tapes stands for Los Angeles County. The
special MEDLIST tape we received had the geographic coordinates
for each of the blor.k groups records. We matched the MEDLIST file
with the First Count Summary tape on block groups and created a
new First Count tape with coordinates for each of the records.
This enabled us to use this tape for computer mapping. Which
we did successfully in two of our California research projects.
Now for future plans.
I have made plans for Rand to receive the California Second Count
tapes from the Division of Highways in Sacramento in exchange for
our First Count Summary tape with coordinates. We need SCRIS*
permission to release it, but expect to obtain it shortly.
Plans are being formulated to obtain the summary tapes for the
nation as they are made available. We are tentatively setting up
a ’
’
working arrangement" with Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) .
They have contracted with Dualabs to receive Dualabs' version of
the summary count tapes and I have been negotiating with ORNL to
have them reproduce those files for us. In addition we may be
able to get all of the Dualabs1 software programs as well. ORNL
would charge us only for tape copying which happens to be very
reasonable. They are being subsidized with HUD funds for the
purchase of the census files.




312
TO:

List

6 October 1971
-42-

Around the middle of October, I hope to make the necessary
arrangements to obtain a copy of the First Count Summary tape
for New York State. In addition, I'll need the matching MEDLIST file. Project Rand, through John White's grant of $250,
will finance the purchase of this file as well as the entire
national file. This seed money will just take care of the
acquisition costs not the processing costs. Funding will have
to be provided so we can check out and implement some Du a l a b s 1
programs as well.
The ideal situation would be to use the programs in a New York
City subset of the census file. If they work, I ’ make the
ll
necessary arrangements to obtain the entire national file for
our future research projects.

AHR:sj




313
-43-

A P P E N D I X 2. A

M E M O R A N D U M
DATE:
NO.:

5 October 1971
CJM-48

TO:

List

FROM:

A. H. Rosenthal

SUBJECT:

BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF THE FORTHCOMING CENSUS FILES THEIR CONTENTS, AND TENTATIVE RELEASE DATES

The present plan of the Bureau of the Census is to release the
results of the 1970 census on six Public Use Summary Computer
Tape files. The six will contain certain basic population and
housing information about every person and housing unit surveyed.
This information will be organized by what are referred to a°
exhibits. The following is a brief description of these exhibits.
EXHIBIT 1, SUBJECT ITEMS INCLUDED IN THE 1970 CENSUS
Exhibit 1, items are referred to as complete count or 100% data
items; it includes items such as race, age, sex, number of units,
rooms, etc. There were additional questions asked of 20% of the
respondents and these are referred to as the sample or 20%, 157o,
and 5% data items. These are only found in the 4th, 5th, and 6th
count files. The 100% items or complete count items are in all
six files. Examples of the sample items are: income in 1969,
education, bathroom, automobile, etc.
EXHIBIT 2, PUBLIC USE SUMMARY COMPUTER TAPE FILES OF THE 1970
POPULATION AND HOUSING CENSUSES
In Exhibit 2, Column 1 "Name of File1 refers to the six different
1
Summary Public Use Computer Tape files. They are called 'count1
‘
1
files. Column 2 refers to the coverage namely complete (100%)
or sample (20%, 15%, 5%) data items. Columns 3-5 refer to the
smallest geographic area breakdown of the files. Note, that the
census block is the smallest geographic area and that appears
only in the 3rd count. After the census block, approximately in
order of increasing size, is the block group (BG) or enumeration
district (ED), tracts, places, minor civil divisions (MCD), and
census county divisions (CCD) up to counties and states. The
sixth column refers to the different number of crosstabs that




314
TO:

List

5 October 1971
-44-

will be available for each of the counts. The seventh column
refers to the tentative release date of the files subject to
change. I have revised the original schedule to reflect the
current status. The eighth column indicates the subdivision or
subfiles of the various counts by geographic area. For example,
in the First Count, File A, the values for the crosstabs are
for an individual block group or enumeration district; for the
same count, File B, the values are for state leve, county
levels, going down to congressional district levels.
EXHIBIT 3, ITEM DETAIL IN THE VARIOUS DATA REPORTS
Exhibit 3 illustrates some of the crosstabs that make up the
data cells that are enumerated in Column 6 of Exhibit 2.
EXHIBIT 4, SUMMARY TAPE FILES AND THE TYPES OF AREAS FOR WHICH
THEY PROVIDE DATA
Exhibit 4 illustrates the various summary count files and the
geographic area that the data reflects.
The Bureau of the Census is planning to issue in addition to the
Public Use Summary Computer Tape files, another type of file
called Public Use Samples. These are individual records and will
permit identification of areas of less than 250,000 population.
There will be three Public Use Sample files. The first will pro­
vide estimates at the state level; the second will be grouped by
states and will provide data on neighborhood characteristics; and
the third will provide estimates for the large S M S A 1s as well as
county groupings containing the smaller SMSA 1s . The sampling
ratio will be 1 in 100.
In 1960, a 1 in 1,000 sample tape was created. The Bureau has
updated this file to reflect a 1 in 100 ratio to make it com­
parable to the 1970 Public Use Samples file. The 1960 1/100 PUS
has been released and the 1970 PUS should be out by the middle
of 1972.
This, briefly describes the various type of files that the Bureau
of the Census has or will release with some of the tentative
dates.




315
TO:

List

-4 5 -

5 October 1971

Rand has made arrangements with Oak Ridge National Laboratory to
obtain the necessary files that it would need for its research
program. This will include the First, Fourth, Fifth and Sixth
Count Summary tapes when they are made available, as well as the
1960 and 1970 17o Public Use Sample Files.

AHR:sj




316
-46E x h i b l t 1 . — SUBJECT ITEMS INCLUDED IN THE 1970 CENSUS
COMPLETE COUNT DATA ITEMS
-Included in each Count, 1st thru 6th
-Shown for all census areas including city blocks
Housing I tecs'

Population Items
100 percent.

.Relationship to head of
household
Color or race
Age
Sex
Marital status

Number of units at this address
Telephone
Private entrance to living quarters
Complete kitchen facilities
Roora3
Water supply
Flush toilet
Bathtub or shower
Basement
Tenure
Commercial establishment on property
Value
Contract rent
Vacancy status
Months vacant

SAMPL5 DATA ITEMS
-Included on 4th, 5th and 6th Counts only
-Shown for census tracts, MCCa and larger census areas
Population Items
20 percent.

15 percent.

5 percent.




.State or cou n try of birth
Years of school completed
Number of children ever born
Employment status
Hours vorked last week
Weeks vorked in 1969
Last year in which vorked
Occupation, industry, and
class of worker
Activity 5 years ago
Income in 1969
•Country of birth of parents
Mother tongue
Year moved into this house
Place of residence 5 years
ago
School of college enrollment
(public cr private)
Veteran status
Place of work
Means of transportation to work
•Mexican or Spanish origin or
descent
Citizenship
Year of immigration
When married
Vocational training completed
Presence and duration of disability
Occupation-industry 5 years ago

iioi4si^^.,I,tem3
Components of gross rent
Heating equipment
Year structure built
Number of units in structure ar.d
whether a trailer
Farm residence

Source of water
Sewage disposal
Bathrooms
Air conditioning
Automobile 3

Stories, elevator in structure
Fuel— heating, cooking, vater heati
Bedrooms
Clothes washing machine
Clothes dryer
Dishwasher
Home feed freezer
Television
Radio
Second home




Exhibit 2 — PUBLIC USE SUMMARY COMPUTER TAPE FILES OF THE 1970 POPULATION AND HOUSING CENSUSES

OCTOBER 1 9 7 1 ^
Smallest geographic area
Name of
file

(i)

Cover­
age

(2)

In file

(3)

1st Count..

100£

Blockgroup/
ED

2nd Count..

10056

Tract/
MCD(CCD)

3rd Count..
4th Count..

100%

Block

20% Tract/
15% MCD(CCD)
5%
100%

5th Count.,

6th Count..

20%
15%
5%

3- or 5digit
ZIP area

Approximate
number in
U.S.

Average pop­
ulation size

_

(4L

820

fract: A,000
'•ICD's: 200to one
nilllon+
90
Tract: 4,000
MCD's: 200to one
rdllion+

260.000 (3dli;it areas)
10.000 (5digit areas
100%
in SMSA's
20% Pop.-Cities
500,000
15/o of 100,000!
% Hous.-Citio:;
100% of 50,000+

.

(5i. .
250,000
ED' 3
awl
Blockrroups
Tracts
34,600

Approximate
number of
data cells
for each
geographic
area

_ .(Ax_ - 1 7 1 —
_
_
400

MCD's
(CCD's)
35,000

uroao in the U.S.

Oct.
1971

250

Nov.

13,000
1 (File A & B,
and Places)

1 Q 71

April
1972

!
30,000
File C (ex­
cept Places)

800
788 (3-digit
arcus)
J2,5UG£/ (5digit aroas
in SMS-A'n)
132 f100,0004-; Pop. 150,000
333 (50,000+; Hons. 110,000

_l7 Additional su m ry tape files will b developed subsequent!/.
c a
e
vill b tabulated for the population in 5-digit areas that
o

2J Data

Sept.
1971

3,500

MCD's
(CCD's)
35,000
1,500,000
Tracts
34,600

Tentative
tirrdng

Jan.
1972
Jan.
1972

fall within SMSA's.

File subdivisions

File A: B'i or ED Summaries
;Filo B: State, County,
HCD(CCD), MCD-Place, Place,
Congressional District
File A: Tract Summaries
File B: State, County,
MCD(CCD), Places, SMSA,
and Component Areas
Not applicable
File A:

Tract Summaries

File B: MOD(CCD)
Summaries
File C: State, County,
Places, SMSA, and
Component Areas
File A: 3-digit
ZIP area
File B: 5-digit ZIP areas
in SMSA's
Pop.-Metr.Counties, Non-Metr.
Counties 50,000f, Cities
100,000+, Central Cities,
SMSA's.
Hous.-Sfcite, Metr. Counties,
Non-Metr. Counties 50,000+,
Cities 50,000+, Central
Cities. SMSA's.
There is a total of 39,000 5-digit

318
-48-

Exhibit 3

— ITEM DETAIL IN THE VARIOUS DATA REPORTS

____________ ____________ Illustrative Examples
AGE
1st Count
SuEj&ary
Tapes

2nd Count
Summary
Tapes

3rd Count
Surras ry
Tapes

4th Count
Sutciary
Tapes

Under’
5
5
6
7-9
10-13
14
15
16
17
18-19
20
21
22-24
25-34
35-44
45-54
55-59
60-61
62-64
65-74
75 and over

Under 3
3-4
5
6
7-9
10-1.3
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22-24
25-29
30-34
35-39
40-44
45-49
50-54
55-59
60-61
62-64
65-69
70-74
75 and over
Crosstabulated
by Sex

Under 5
5
6
7-9
10-13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22-24
25-34.
35-44
45-54
55-59
60-61
62-64
65-74
75 and over

Under 1
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8

Crosstabulated
by Sex

Cresstabulated
by Sex
by Race

Crosstabulated
by Sex

1st Count
Summary
Tapes

2nd Co-ant
Sumary
Tapes

3rd Count
5’
jnr.iary
Taues

99
100 and over

RACE

White
Negro or Elack
Indian
Japanese
Chinese
Filipino
Hawaiian
Korean
Other
Crosstabulated
Three of the
categories cros: by Sex
tabulated by sex

White
Negro or Black
Indian
Other Specified
Face
Other




White
Negro or Black
Other

Crosstabulated
by Sex

4th Count
Suj^a r y
Taoes *
White
Negro or Black
Other
Spanish
language/
Puerto Rican

Crosstabulated
by over 1,CC0
cells of sarple
information

319
-49-

Exhibit 3 — Item Detail in the Various Data' Reports— Cont.

plumbing

1st Count
Summary
Tapes
Abilities

Fa cilities

2nd Count
Summary
Tapes

3rd Count
Summary
Tape3

4th Count
Summary
Tapes

With all
facilities

With all
facilities

With ell
facilities

Lacking one or
Lacking piped
hot water only more facili­
ties

Lacking piped
hot water only

Lacking other
plumbing
facilities

Lacking one or
more facili­
ties

Lacking other
plumbing
facilities

Crosstabulated Crosstabulated Crosstabulated
By owner-renter By ovner-renter Ey ovner-renter
Ey race of head Ey race of head Ey race of head

Also Crosstabulated by
value, rent,
size of struc­
ture, number
of rooms, and
other housing
statistics

INCOME
1st Count
Summary
Tapes

2nd Count
Summary
Tapeb

3rd Count
Summary

Printed
Block

4th Count
Summary
Tape *
5

N.A.

N.A.

tf.A.

Under $1000
$1-2,000
$2-3,000
$3-4,000
$4-5,000
$5-6,000
$6-7,000
$7-8,000
$8-9,000
$9-10,000
$10-12,000
$ 12 - 15,000
$15-25,000
$25-50,000
$ 50,000
and over

available




|

Computed for
families, un­
related in­
dividuals
Individual
earnings
cross tabula ted
by sex and by
certain occu­
pations

E x h i b i t 4 . — SUMMARY TAPE F I L E S AND THE TY P ES OF AREAS FOR WHICH THEY PROVIDE DATA

COMPLETE COUNT DATA ONLY
F I R S T COUNT

F ile

A

F ile

S t a t e s . ......................... ......................

A F ile

B

FOURTH COUNT

F ile

A F ile

B F ile

X

F IF T H COUNT

SIX T H COUNT

C

X

S M S A 's ...................................................

F ile

THIRDi
COUNT

X

C o n g r e ssio n a l D i s t r i c t s . .

B

SECOND COUNT

SAMPLE AND COMPLETE COUNT ITEM S

CO

to
o
X

L a rg o C i t i e s an d
C o u n t i e s ........................................

X

X

C o u n t i e s .............................................

X

X

P l a c e s ...................................................

X

X

M in o r C i v i l D i v i s i o n o r
C e n su s C o u n ty D i v i s i o n .
T ra c ts

(in

SM SA ’ s ) .................

E n u m e r a tio n D i s t r i c t s
o r B l o c k g r o u p s .......................
B lo c k s

(in

U A ’ s ) .......................

Z i p C o d e A r e a s .............................




X

SOCIO-ECONOMIC

Name

Attributes
or D e s c r i p t i o n

Ti m e
Period

1. L o n g i t u d i n a l
EmployerEmployee
D a t a (LEED)
F i l e or 17.
Continuous
Work History
Sample

P e r s o n s who ha v e a
S e c u r i t y n u m b e r and
w o r k e d in a c o v e r e d
p l o y m e n t : Age, sex,
earnings, employer
d u st ry )

2.

To e s t i m a t e the ch a r s c t e r i s t i c s of the poor:
Age, f a m i l y sta t u s,
ho u si n g , m a r i t a l h i s ­
tory, tr a i ni ng , as se t s ,
liabilities
Household revisited
the s e c on d ye a r

S u r v e y of

Economic
Opportunity
(SEO) f i le

Social
have
enrace,
(in ­

3. M i c h i g a n L o n g i ­ E c o n o m i c st a t us , ecotudinal Survey
noraic b e h a v i o r , p e r F i l e or
s o n a l i t y and a t t i t u d e s
Survey R e ­
f r o m a 3 ,0 0 0 SRC sa mp le
search Center
and 1, 9 0 0 SEO 1967
(SRC) L o n g i ­
s a m p l e (o r i e n t e d to
tudinal File
poor people).
House­
ho l d wi l l be r e v i s i t e d




1 95 7 1 9 66

OR URBAN

Number
of R e c o r d s
900,000 in­
dividuals
in the U. S.

DATA

FILES

Geographic
Level

October

Quality
Very
Good

County

of
Employer

1 96 6
and
19 67

30,000
households
in the U.S.

SMS A
l e ve l

19 6 8
1 96 9
1 97 0

4,900
households
in the U.S.

County

G o od ,
a cor­
rected
fi l e is
avail­
able

Source

Restrict ion

Social
Security
Administra t ion

Yes ,
Rand
Use
Only

Acquisition
Co 3 t

1971

Update

Yes ,
Rand
Only

Contin­
u o u sl y,
on a
yearly
ba s i s

$50 0

O f f i c e of
Economic
Opportun­
ity,
Assist
Corp.

and
$2000/yr
update

On e T i m e

$10 , 0 0 0

N o n e to
us, bu t
S u rv ey
Research
Center
(SRC) has
a f i xed
co st

Yearly

y early
Current
Population
Survey
(CPS)

Sample survey conducted
m o n t h l y to o b t a i n es t im a t e s of e m p l o y m e n t ,
u n e m p l o y m e n t , and ot h er
g e n e r a l la b o r f o r c e and
of the p o p u l a t i o n as a
w h o le ; in a d d i t i o n ,
s a m p l e q u e s t i o n s dea l
w i t h p e r s o n a l and f a m i l y
in c o me , m i g r a t i o n , e d u ­
cational attainment

1963,1969
197 0
(Reflects
M a r c h 1967
"
19 68
"
1969
surveys)

52,500
households;
105,000
persons,
16 y e a r s or
o v er in U.S.

449 p r i ­
mary
samp 1 ing
units co m ­
prising
863 c o u n ­
ties an d
independent
cities

Bureau
Yes,
of L a b o r
Rand
Statistics Only
and OEO

N o n e to
Yearly
us , but
B u r e a u of
C e n s u s has
a fi x e d
cost

oJ^Pber

Name
5.

IRS/ZIP Code
Area Data File
1966

6 . Census Public
U s e S a mp le ,
19 6 0

7.

Industry
Profile

Attributes
or D e s c r i p t i o n

Ti me
P er iod

N u m b er
of

Re c. cr ds

Geo g r a p h i c

L eve l

1966

3 0 , 0 0 0 zip
c o d e a re a
in U.S.

Five digit
zip c o d e
are a

C h a r a c t e r i s t i c s fr om the
1 9 6 0 C e n s u s of 0.1%
s a m p l e of the U.S. P o p u ­
lation, housing, h o u s e ­
ho l d , d e m o g r a p h i c c h a r ­
a c t e r i s t i c s of the i n ­
dividual

196 0

160,000
ind iv i d u al s
in the U.S.

Four regions
in U.S .

I n d u s t r y p r o f i l e s rel a t i n g to e m p l o y m e n t ,
payrolls, manhours,
v a l u e of s h ip m e n t ;
a d d e d v a l u e and c a p i ­
tal e x p e n d i t u r e s for
all m a n u f a c t u r i n g
i n d u s t r i e s (424 SIC
n u m b e r s - 4 d i g i t code)

1958 1967

424 i n d u s ­
t ri es for
10 y e a r s

National

Good

Source

Restric­
tio n

D ep t, of
C o m e r ce
Clearing
H o u s e and
Internal
Revenue
S e r v ic e

Ac q u i sition
Cost
$55

Update
On e tim

B u r e a u of
Yes,
the C e n s u s
Ra nd
and U n i v e r - On l y
s i t y of W i s ­
consin

Un­
known

O
O

De p t , of
Commerce
Clearing
House

to
to

$55

-52

S t a t i s t i c s of 1966 I n c o m e
by f i v e di g i t zip co de
a r e a by fou r a d j u s t e d
income classes, number
of r e t u r n s , n u m b e r of
joint returns, number
of e x e m p t i o n s ( d e p e n ­
d e n t s ) , to tal tax, to tal
a d j u s t e d g ro s s in c o m e s

Quality

1971

8 . K e a 1 1h
Ir.forsa tio n
Foundation
Survey

Hou s e h o l d survey
196 4
r e f l e c t i n g the f a m i l y
Reflects
e x p e n d i t u r e s for h e a l t h
19 63 data
s e r v i c e s and q u a n t i t i e s
u s e d.
Also contains
socio-economic char­
a c t e r i s t i c s of h o u s e h o l d s

2,36 7
f am ilie s
(household
d a t a only)

S M SA
*1 evel

Good

N O R C and
Yes,
Center
Rand
for H e a l t h
Only
A d m . Studies
at U n i v e r s i t y
of C h i c a g o

$5 0 0

O ne

9. T i m e B u d g e t
Survey

H o u s c h o I d /Family Survey
r e f l e c t i n g the b u d g e t i n g
or a l l o c a t i o n cf time and
h o w it c o n t r i b u t e s to inc o m e of the fa mi ly ;
contains socio-economic
c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s of f a m i l y

2,21 4
adulta
(f a m i l i e s )

Nat i on al
by r e g i o n

Good

Survey
Research
Center.
Michigan

$350

One tine




Jan-Feb
1965
Reflects
1964 d at a

Yes,
Rand
Only

time

SOCIO-ECONOMIC

OR

URBAN

DATA

FILES

October

1971

CALIFORNIA
A t t r i bu t e s
or D e s c r i p t i o n

®

Time
Period

N u m b er
of R e c o r d s

Geographic
L e v e l ____

Quality

Source

1970 Census
10 0 % items
First Count
P o p u l a t i o n : H e a d of
S u n a a r y T a p e s h o u s e h o l d , race, age,
fo r C a l i f o r sex, m a r i t a l st a tu s,
ni a
etc.
H o u s i n g : U ni ts , rooms,
v a lu e, c o n t r a c t rent,
f l u s h toile t, t e l e ph on e ,
w a t e r su p p ly , etc.

Appendix

2C

2.




A p r i l 1,
19 7 0

25,000

B l o c k group,
California

Very
Good

Bureau
of the
Census

Master Enumeration D is­
trict List
(MEDLIST)
f or C a l i f o r ­
n ia

A p r i l 1,
19 7 0

25,000

B l o c k gr ou p,
California

Very
Good

Restrict ion

Ac qu isition
Cost

Update

Bureau
of the
Census

Marvick
UCLA

P u r p o s e to j oi n the na m e s
of c o u n t i e s an d pl ac es ,
l i k e c i ti e s , w i t h the
g e o g r a p h i c co de s a s s i g n e d
to each.
T h e s e cod e s are
us e d in the 19 70 ce n su s
file s; p o p u l a t i o n and
h o u s i n g u ni t c o u n t s are
included .

f i l e s a)
V o t i n g R e c o r d s by
C e n s u s T r a c t s s in c e 1964
b)
19 6 0 C e n s u s Da t a
c.) 1968 Lo 3 A n g e l e s
Regional Planning Com­
mission Population Re­
po rt
d)
Et h n i c S c h o o 1
P o p u l a t i o n as of 1967
as r e p o r t e d to H E W

1950 Census,
Ex trac ti on
for Lo s
Ang e l e s City

P o p u l a t i o n M i x by C e n ­
sus T ra c t

19641 97 0

1,300

C e n s u s trac t »
L os A n g e l e s
County

C e n s u s tract *
Lo s A n g e l e s
City

a) U C L A
Yes ,
Po l i t i c a l Rand
Science
Us e
Dept.
' Only

Bureau
of the
Census
and C o m ­
munity
A n a l y s is
Bureau

Dec e n n i a 1

Regularly
after
elec tion
y e ar and
decennial

Decennial

I

00
to
CO

October

1971

C A L I F O R NIA

Name

Attributes
'or D e s c r i p t i o n

Tim e
Period

Nu m b € r
of R e c o r d s

Geographic

19 7 0

500 c as e s
per s u r v e y

1,639

5.

Spccial polit­
ic a l s u r v e y s
Los A n g e l e s

Voter attitudes,
8 Surveys

6.

Ethnic School
S u r v e y - Los
Angeles County

E t h n i c b r e a k d o w n of
school population
by s c h o o l

School Address
F i l e - Los
A ngeles School
D i s t r i c t and
Sur r o u n d ing

A c t u a l a d d r e s s of sc hoo l,
C e n s u s b l o c k an d tr act,
p o p u l a t i o n of s c ho o l ; and
c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s suc h as
gr a d e , j u n i o r high, high ,
s p e c i a l , etc.

1971

Household Survey Char­
a c t e r i s t i c s on ho u s i n g ,
family, education,
m i g r a t i o n , et h n i c
occupation, industry

1967

Area
Los Angeles
Regional Trans­
p o r t a t i o n Study
LARTS
9.

Oc tob er
19 7 0

Qua 1 i ty

Source

Los A n g e l e s
Ci t y

Good

Individual
s c h o o l s in
Lo 6 A n g e l e s
County

Very
Good

1,2 0
0

Los A n geles
ar ea

Very
Good

1 6 , 0 0 0 in
Los A n g e l e s
County

L A R T S zo n e s
of a n a l y s i s

Go o d

s c h o o l s in
Los A n g e l e s
County
schools

Yearly

Yes ,
R a nd

Use
Only
O ne

Y es ,
Rand
Use
Only

D iv i s ion
of H i g h ­
w a ys ,
Sacra­
mento

Y es ,
Rand
Us e
Only

None

tim e

One

time

I

Un

I

Los
Angeles
County
T ax
Assessor

Ye s ,
Ra nd
Us e
On l y

Co s t
of
T a pe
Co p y

Continuous

6, 0 0 0 in
Santa Clara
County

B A TS zon es
analysis
Santa Clara
County

G oo d

D i v i s ion
of H i g h ­
w a y s, San
F r a n c is co

Ye s,
Rand
U se
Only

$200

One

of:

Individual
Lots

Sa n t a
Clara
County

Ye s ,
Rand
Us e
Only

Periodically

Records with
G
ind i v i d u a l
id en t if ica t ion
r e m o v e d , ca n
be s u m m e d to
c e n s u s t r a ct

S a n ta
Clara
County

Ye s ,
Rand
Us e
Only

O n e time

H o u s e h o l d s u rv e y:
Char­
a c t e r i s t i c s on ho u s i n g ,
family, education,
m i g r a t i o n , et h n i c,
occupation, industry
a n d o r i g i n and d e s t i n a tion of t ri ps

19 65

11.

Land Use File
Santa Clara
C o u n ty

L a n d use.
by p a r c e l
L a n d u se
w i t h tax

196 2
1965
1957

225.000
260.000
300.000

12.

Special Census
f or S a n t a C l a r a
C o u n t y - 196 6

Population & Housing
C h a r a c t e r i s t i c s similar
to an a c t u a l d e c e n n i a l
census

1966

280.000




O n e ti me

F ai r

Bay Area
Transportation
S t u d y - BAT S
Santa Clara
County sub­
fil e

assessed value
a nd bl oc k.
fi l e m a t c h e d
a s s e s s o r fil e

Update

Lo s A n g e l e s
County Block

Ow n e r , p a r c e l n u m be r,
a s s e s s e d l a n d va l u e , real
p r o p e r t y , zo ni n g , tax
r e v e n u e , u s e code,
commercial employment

10.

A c q u isition
Co s t

Ha l f M i l l i o n
-

C o u n ty T ax
As s e s s o r F i l e
L os A ng ele s

Current
1971

Restrict ion

Corey
A s so c.

Leve l

time

October

CALIFORNIA
Attributes
,or D e s c r i p t i o n

Ti m e
Period

N u m b er
of R e c o r d s

- G e og r a p h i c
Level

Quality Source

Restricti on

Acqui­
sition
Cos t

1971

Update

13.

First Count
1970 Census
S u m m a r y Ta p e
Santa Clara
County

1 0 0 % it e m s
Census

f r o m the 19 70

1 9 70

Block Group p
S a n t a Cl a r a
County

Bureau
of the
Census

Decennial

14.

First Count
197 0 C e n s u s ,
Summary Tape
Lo s A n g e 1 e s

1 0 0% i te m s f r o m the 19 7 0
Census

19 7 0

B l o c k Gro up,
Los A n g e l e s
County

Bureau
of the
Census

Dec e n n ia l

County




00

to

O
i

326
-56Appendix 3

A BIBLIOGRAPHY OF

The Rand C o rp o ra tio n
1700 Main Street
Santa M onica
C alifornia 90406

September !97!
SB-1 007

URBAN PROBLEMS

BOOKS
Book
S t u d i e s in t h e E c o n o m i c s o f
Transportation.
K. B e c k m a n n , C. B.
M c G u i r e , C. B. tfinsten.
19 5 6 .
A n e x a m i n a t i o n of the t h e o r e t i c a l a s p e c t s
o f h i g h w a y and. r a i l r o a d s y s t e m s .
Concepts
and m e t h o d s a re d e v e l o p e d for a s s e s s i n g
t he c a p a b i l i t i e s and e f f i c i e n c y of e x i s t ­
ing and projected traffic systems.
3 7 5 pp.
( P u b l i s h e d by Y a l e U n i v e r s i t y P r e s s , 1956.
A v a i l a b l e on l y from b o o k s e l l e r s or the
publisher.)
(Non-RAN'H book, b a s e d o n a
R A N D s t u d y , R M - 1 4 S 3 , p u b l i s h e d in 1955
u n d e r the same title.)

B u r e a u c r a t s are clas s i f i e d as five basic
types— climbers, conservers, zealots, ad­
vocates, and s t a t e s m e n — and the m o t i v a ­
t i o n s and n o r m a l b e h a v i o r p a t t e r n s of
each type are described.
In c o n t r a s t t o
the c o m m o n l y held notion that a b u r e a u ­
c r a t i c m o n o l i t h i s d e p r i v i n g m e n of t h e i r
f r e e d o m , t he a v e r a g e c i t i z e n of t o d a y e n ­
j oy s a f a r g r e a t e r r a n g e of c h o i c e of
p o s s i b l e behavior than his p r e d e c e s s o r s .
307 pp.
(Published by Little, Brown and
C o m p a n y , 1967, 5 6 . 5 0.
Available only
f r o m b o o k s e l l e r s o r the: p u b l i s h e r . )

Book
Inside Bureaucracy.
A. D o w n s .
1967.
A s t u d y of b u r e a u s and b u r e a u c r a t s b a s e d
on t h e p r e m i s e that, as a s p e c i e s , b u r e a u ­
cratic organizations demonstrate predict­
a ble t r a i t s and habits.
It is a s s u m e d
that all b u r e a u s have s i m i l a r s t r u c t u r e s
and s u r v i v a l i n s t i n c t s , and that most
b u r e a u c r a t s arp b asically r a tional and
a c t in t h e i r o w n i n t e r e s t s .
The p e c u l i ­
a r i t i e s , the c o n f l i c t i n g and c o m p l e x mo­
t i v e s of r e a l b u r e a u c r a t s p r o v i d e t h e
d a t a for the a n a l y s i s .
The typical life
c y c l e of b u r e a u s a s t h e y m o v e f r o m b i r t h
t h r o u g h g r o w t h to d e c l i n e a nd e v e n t u a l
s t a g n a t i o n , rebirth or d e ath is d e s c r i b e d .

Book
A Data P r o c e s s i n g S ystem for
S t a t e and Local G o v e r n m e n t s .
E. F. P.
H e a r l e , R. J. M a s o n .
1963.
A s t u d y o f th e n a t u r e o f d a t a u s e d by s t a t e
and local g o v e r n m e n t s and the d e s i g n of
c o m p r e h e n s i v e s y s t e m s to s e rv e their
l o n g - r a n g e needs.
R e s e a r c h for t h i s book
f o c u s e d on the t o t a l c o m p l e x o f f u n c t i o n s
p e r f o r m e d by such g o v e r n m e n t s r a t h e r than
on t he o p e r a t i o n s of a ny one a g e n c y , so
t h a t the a n a l y s i s i s c o n c e p t u a l r a t h e r
than procedural.
C o n c e r n e d p r i m a r i l y with
da t a p r o c e s s i n g , not d o c u m e n t or r e c o r d
h a n d l i n g , t h e s t u d y d e s c r i b e s th e c h a r a c ­
t e r i s t i c s and c a p a b i l i t i e s of data p r o c ­
essing equipment; discusses the functions,




327
-57-

structures, relationships, and prospects
of s t a t e and local g o v e r n m e n t s ; a n a l y z e s
the data these g o v e r n m e n t s handle; pro­
p o s e s t h e U n i f i e d I n f o r m a t i o n S y s t e a as a
l o n g - r a n g e g oal; a n d d i s c u s s e s s t e p s t h a t
a g e n c i e s can ta ke both to i o p r o v e p r e s e n t
d a t a s y s t e m s a n d to p r o v i d e l o g i c a l t r a n ­
s i t i o n to t h e U n i f i e d I n f o r m a t i o n S y s t e m
e n v i s i o n e d for the 1 9 7 0 ’
s.
Appendixes
pro v i d e f a r ther det a i l about data, present
s e v e r a l m a j o r p r i n c i p l e s of d a t a s y s t e m
de s i g n , c o m m e n t on e q u i p m e n t e v a l u a t i o n
a n d s e l e c t i o n , and f u r n i s h r e f e r e n c e s for
ad d i tional guidance.
158 pp.
Bibliog.
( P u b l i s h e d by P r e u t i c e - H a l 1, I n c . , 1 9 6 3 ,
$4.95.
Available only from books e l l e r s
or the publisher.)

Book
Hater Supply:
Economics, Tech­
n o l o g y , and P o l i c y .
J. H i r s h l e i f e r ,
J. C. D e H a v e n , J. V. . M i l l i m a n 0
19 6 0 .
A c r i t i c a l e x a m i n a t i o n of c u r r e n t a n d
proposed water management schemes.
Im­
p r o v e m e n t in a l l o c a t i o n o f e x i s t i n g w a t e r
s u p p l i e s anti d e v e l o p m e n t o f a d d i t i o n a l
s o u r c e s a r e c o n t r a s t e d as wa y s of m e e t i n g
water demands.
T w o c a s e s t u d i e s of c r u ­
cial w a t e r - s u p p l y d e c i s i o n s , the C a n n o n v i ] 1p

Prnjprt

in

Np u

York

Citv

pin/ }

H o

F e a t h e r K i v e r P r o j e c t in S o u t h e r n C a l i ­
f o r n i a , a r e a n a l y z e d to i l l u s t r a t e and
d e f i n e the technical, economic, and legal
a s p e c t s of t h e p r o b l e m .
3 7 8 pp.
(Pub­
l i s h e d by T h e U n i v e r s i t y o f C h i c a g o
P r e s s , 1 96 0, 3 7 . 5 0 ,
Available only from
b o o k s e l l e r s or the publisher.)

Book
Efficiency in Government Through
Systems Analysis:
W i t h E m p h a s i s on
Water Resource Development.
R. N.
McKean.
1958.
A n i n q u i r y i n t o the a n a l y s i s o f w a t e r resource investments and civil govern­
ment o p e r a t i o n s .
T h e b a s i c aim of this
s t u d y is t o s h o w h o w i n c r e a s e d e f f i c i e n c y
d e r i v e s fr o m i m p r o v e d m e t h o d s of q u a n t i ­
tative analysis.
The author discusses
t h e p r i n c i p l e s of o p e r a t i o n s r e s e a r c h a n d
s y s t e m s a n a l y s e s in t h e c o m p a r i s o n o f a l ­
ternative w a t e r-resource inves t m e n t s and
th e o p p o r t u n i t i e s f or a p p l y i n g s u c h t e c h ­
n i q u e s o f a n a l y s i s to o t h e r g o v e r n m e n t a l
activities.
34 8 pp.
Bibliog.
(Published
by J o h n W i l e y & S o n s , I n c . , 1 9 5 8 , $ 8 . 0 0 .
A v a i l a b l e o n l y f r o m b o o k s e l l e r s or the
publis her.)

Book
The Urban T r a n s p ortation Problem.
J. R. M e y e r , J. F. K a i n , N. W o h l .
1965.
A study integrating div e r s e but relevant
i n f o r m a t i o n on t h e u r b a n t r a n s p o r t a t i o n




p r o b l e m i n a n e f f o r t to e x p e d i t e m o r e
c o g e n t d i s c u s s i o n s of t h e a v a i l a b l e a l t e r ­
natives.
T h e e m p h a s i s i s on b a s i c i s s u e s
rather than specific problems.
Under­
l y i n g forcer; c o n d i t i o n i n g t h e g r o w t h a n d
d e v e l o p m e n t p a t t e r n s of a l l m e t r o p o l i t a n
areas are i d entified and explored.
In­
t e n s i v e l y s t u d i e d a r e c h a n g e s in t h e t e c h ­
n o l o g y of u rban t r a n s p o r t a t i o n ; the c h a n g ­
ing p a t t e r n of l a n d use w i t h i n m e t r o p o l i t a n
areas; trip-making behavior, including
c h o ic e of mode; and g o v e r n m e n t a l p o l i c y
a f f e c t i n g l and use a nd t r a n s p o r t a t i o n r e ­
quirements.
Appendixes summarize descrip­
t i o n s a n d c o s t s of v a r i o u s t r a n s p o r t a t i o n
systems.
5 4 7 pp.
( P u blished by H a r v a r d
U n i v e r s i t y P r e s s , 1965, $ 1 1 . 9 5 .
Available
onl y f r o m b o o k s e l l e r s or the p u b l i s h e r . )

Book
Thinking About Cities:
New Per­
s p e c t i v e s on U r b a n P r o b l e m s .
Edited
by A. H. P a s c a l .
1970.
A c o l l e c t i o n of p a p e r s o r i g i n a l l y p r e p a r e d
f o r a 1 9 6 8 w o r k s h o p on U . S . u r b a n p r o b l e m s ,
j o i n t l y s p o n s o r e d by R a n d a n d The F ord
Foundation.
The w o r k s h o p ’ p u r p o s e was
s
to d e f i n e and i n i t i a t e a c o m p r e h e n s i v e ,
l o n g - t e r m r e s e a r c h p r o g r a m w i t h i n Rand on
u r b ? n p o l i c y i ^ n o s ^ n d to i n t e r e s t o - h e r
o r g a n i z a t i o n s in u n d e r t a k i n g r e l a t e d work.
Participants included scientists, scholars,
f e d e r a l and NYC o f f i c i a l s , and Rand s t a f f
members.
Contents, grouped thematically,
c o v e r (1) r a c e r e l a t i o n : ; in t h e c i t y , (2)
m u n i c i p a l o b j e c t i v e s a n d o r g a n i z a t i o n , (3)
t h e r e f o r m o f u r b a n p r o g r a m s , a n d (4) u r b a n
v i o l e n c e and p u b l i c order.
Specific con­
s i d e r a t i o n w a s g i v e n to r e c o m m e n d a t i o n s
for p r o g r a m i n i t i a t i v e s , r e s e a r c h , and e x ­
p e r i m e n t s in e d u c a t i o n , h e a l t h s e r v i c e s ,
welfare/public assistance, jobs and man­
power training, housing and urban planning,
po l i c e s e r v i c e s and p u b l i c o rder, and m u ­
n i c i p a l finance and a d m i nistration.
1 9 8 pp.
( P u b l i s h e d by D i c k e n s o n P u b l i s h i n g C o m p a n y ,
Inc., 1970, $4.95.
A v a i l a b l e o nly from
b o o k s e l l e r s or t h e p u b l i s h e r . )
(Also p u b ­
l i s h e d b y R a n d a s P - 3 8 6 8 , A u g u s t 1 968.)
(TC)

REPORTS
R-486-RSF
T h e S o c i a l E f f e c t s of C o m ­
munication Technology.
E d i t e d by H.
G o l d h a m e r , R. W e s t r u m .
H a y 1970.
T h i s r e p o r t r e v i e w s , in a n o n t e c h n i c a l
fashi o n , the p r i n c i p a l t e c h n o l o g i c a l d e ­
v e l o p m e n t s th a t u n d e r l i e the c o m m u n i c a t i o n
r e v o l u t i o n , e s p e c i a l l y the t r a n s i s t o r and
the computer.
A n u m b e r of d e v i c e s and
c o m m u n i c a t i o n s u b s y s t e m s t h a t m a k e u s e of

328
-5 8-

t h o s e d e v c l o p m e n t s <u'o d e s c r i b e d , t o g e t h e r
w i t h th e n e w c a p a b i l i t i e s t h a t t h e y p e r m i t .
T h o p r i n c i p a l d i s c u s s i o n c o n t o r s on p o s ­
sible* s o c i a l c o n s e q u e n c e s t)f tho c o m m u n i ­
c at i o n r e v o l u t i o n and i n d i c a t e s s o m e po l i c y
q u e s t i o n s they raise.
In s o m e c a s e s
c h a n g e s a r e a l r e a d y u n d e r way.
Social
e f f e c t s a r e d i s c u s s e d in t h e f i e l d s o f
education, political behavior, crime,
e c o n o m i c l i fe, g o v e r n m e n t a l r e g u l a t o r y
a c t i o n , a n d the q u a l i t y of life.
There
i s r e a s o n for b o t h o p t i m i s m a n d p e s s i m i s m
a b o u t t h e s e v a r i o u s e f f e c t s , but c o n s i d e r ­
ably more analysis, research, and social
e x p e r i e n c e w i l l be r e q u i r e d t o f o r e s e e
f u t u r e d e v e l o p m e n t s a n d e n a b l e s t e p s to
b e t a k e n t h a t w i l l i n c r e a s e t h e c h a n c e s of
favorable outcomes.
Some guidelines are
p r o v i d e d for r e s e a r c h on the so c i a l e f f e c t s
of c o m munication technology.
33 pp.
(A u t h o r )

R-529-NYC
An A n a l y s i s o f t h e A p p r e h e n ­
s i o n A c t i v i t i e s of t h e N e w Y o r k C i t y
Police Department.
P. V. G r e e n w o o d .
S e p t e m b e r 1 9 70 .
T h i s report d e s c r i b e s a set of c r i t e r i a
for eval u a t i n g a p p r e hension efforts that
a r e c o n s i s t e n t vith the o v e r a l l oMp r ' t i
of t h e c r i m i n a l j u s t i c e s y s t e m , a n d t h e
a p p l i c a t i o n o f t h e s e c r i t e r i a to e x i s t i n g
programs.
f o c u s is on p r o g r a m s l e a d i n g
t o t h e a r r e s t of P a r t I o f f e n d e r s :
homi­
cide, rape, robbery, assault, burglary,
grand larceny, auto theft.
"Probability
of a r r e s t " was a d o p t e d a s the m e a s u r e of
program effectiveness.
For Part I crimes,
i t w a s f o u n d t h a t p r o b a b i l i t y of a r r e s t
is h i g h f o r c r i m e s o f p a s s i o n — h o m i c i d e ,
rape, a s s a u l t — and tha t p r o b a b i l i t y in­
c r e a s e s w i t h e f f o r t d e v o t e d to e a c h c a s e .
F o r c r i m e s of p r o f i t , p r o b a b i l i t y o f a r ­
r e s t i s e x t r e m e l y low and d o e s no t a p p e a r
to i n c r e a s e with e f f o r t .
General patrol
a p p e a r s t o be m o r e p r o d u c t i v e t h a n t a i l s
or stakeouts, and p l a i n c l o t h e s d e t ective
p a t r o l p r o v e d m o r e p r o d u c t i v e in a r r e s t i n g
serious offenders than uniformed patrol
and i n v e s tigation activities.
7 3 pp.
(DGS)

N u m b e r of E m e r g e n c y Units
B u s y at A l a r m s Which R e q u i r e M u l t i p l e
Servers.
J. C h a i k e n .
M a r c h 197 1.
C a l l s f or s e r v i c e a r r i v e a t a n i n f i n i t e s e r v e r q u e u e a c c o r d i n g to a m i x t u r e o f
Poisson processes.
S e r v i c e for e a c h p r o ­
c e s s o c c u r s in a n u m b e r o f i n d e p e n d e n t
s t a g e s ; s t a g e s a r e i d e n t i f i e d by t h e
n u m b e r of e m e r g e n c y u n i t s b u s y s e r v i n g th e
call.
Assuming arbitrary finite mean-serv i c e - t i m e d i s t r i b u t i o n s , t he d i s t r i b u t i o n
o f t h e n u m b e r of b u s y u n i t s a t a n y t i m e i s
d e t e r m i n e d , a n d t h e a p p r o a c h to a s t e a d y -

s t a t e d i s t r i b u t i o n is p r o v e d .
2*4 pp.
Ref.
(See a l s o R - 5 J 2 , R - 5 3 3 , P - 5 6 7 . )
(Author)

R-532-NYC/HUD
R e s p o n s e A r e a s for Two
E m e r g e n c y !lnit.s,
G. M. C a r t e r , J.
Chaiken, F . Tgnall.
M a r c h 1971.
F o r a m o d e l in w h i c h 2 u r b a n e m e r g e n c y
u n i t s c o o p e r a t e in r e s p o n d i n g t o c a l l s
f rom a regi o n that may h a v e i n h o m o g e n e o u s l y
d i s t r i b u t e d d e m a n d s a n d c o m p l i c a t e d travel
times, the e x p e c t e d r e s p o n s e tine to cal l s
fo r s e r v i c e an d the w o r k l o a d of e a c h unit
a re c a l c u l a t e d as f u n c t i o n s of the b o u n d a r y
t h a t s e p a r a t e s the 2 r e s p o n s e a r e a s .
The
bo u n d a r y that m i n i m i z e s mean r e s p o n s e time
i s d e t e r m i n e d ; it ma y d i f f e r from the usual
bo u n d a r y c o n s i s t i n g of poi n t s equidistant,
from the 2 units.
Some b o u n d a r i e s m a y be
do m i n a t e d , in the s e n s e that a n o t h e r
boundary improves both workload balance
and r e s p o n s e time.
The set of u n d o m i n a t e d
b o u n d a r i e s is f o u n d .
5 6 pp.
Ref.
(Se e
a l s o F- 53 1, R - 5 3 3 , R - 5 6 7 . )
(Author)

O n I n s e n s i t i v i t i e s in
Urban Redi s t r i c t i n g and F acility L o c a ­
tion.
R. c . L a r s o n . K . A. S t e v e n s o n .
M a r c h 197 1 .
T h e e x p e c t e d r e s p o n s e time of v e h i c l e s ,
d i s p a t c h e d f r o m f i x e d f a c i l i t i e s to s p a ­
t i a l l y d i s t r i b u t e d i n c i d e n t s , i s s h o w n to
be i n s e n s i t i v e to s u b s t a n t i a l c h a n g e s in
f a c i l i t y l o c a t i o n s or r e s p o n s e d i s t r i c t
design.
R e p o s i t i o n i n g a set of r a n d o m l y
located f a c i l i t i e s so that they are o p t i ­
mally l o cated reduces mean r e s p o n s e time
by no m o r e than 25%.
A n a l y s i s of s i m p l e
2 - f a c i l i t y m o d e l s s h ows, in a d d i t i o n , that
w i d e v a r i a t i o n s in t h e p o s i t i o n o f o n e
facility imply r elatively small variations
in t h e p o s i t i o n of t h e s e c o n d f a c i l i t y fo r
t h e m i n i m i z a t i o n of m e a n r e s p o n s e t i m e .
A c c o r d i n g l y , i t is s u g g e s t e d t h a t r e d i s t r i c t i n g and f a c i l i t y l o c a t i o n b a s e d on
c r u d e a s s u m p t i o n s c o u p l e d w i t h an a w a r e n e s s
of the h e u r i s t i c p r o p e r t i e s i l l u s t r a t e d by
simple a n a lytic m o dels may yield mean re­
s ponse times very near the m i n i m u m p o s ­
sible.
33 pp.
Ref.
(See a l s o P - 5 3 1 ,
R-532, R-567.)
(Author)
R-533-NYC/HnD

8 - 5 3 1 - NYC/MUD




R-567-NYC/HOD
An E x t e n s i o n o f E r l a n g ' s
Formulas which Distinguishes Individual
Servers.
J. C h a i k e n , E . I g n a l l .
March
1971.
T h e m a t h e m a t i c a l p r o o f o f a r e s u l t u s e d in
R - 5 3 2 - - c o n c e r n i n g the a r e a s s e r v e d by 2
e mergency units- - t o g e t h e r with related
findings about certain n-unit systems.
For
a m o d e l in w h i c h t h e u n i t s c o o p e r a t e in
r e s p o n d i n g to c a l l s in a r e g i o n , the
s t e a d y - s t a t e p r o b a b i l i t y of f i n d i n g a

329
-59p a r t i c u l a r u n i t or s p e c i f i e d c o m b i n a t i o n s
o f u n i t s b u s y is f o u n d f o r an a r b i t r a r y
sorvice-time distribution21 p p.
Ref.
( S e e a,lso R - 5 3 1 , R - 5 3 2 , R - 5 3 3 . J
(Author)

R-570-FF
Cable Television:
Opportuni­
ties and P r o b l e m s in Lo c a l Program
Origination.
N. E. F e l d a a n .
September
1970.
E valuates past CATV experience with local
p r o g r a m m i n g in C a n a d a ; in t h e s o m e w h a t
isolated tract of Dale City, Virginia;
a n d in L a k e w o o d , O h i o , a s u b u r b o f C l e v e ­
land.
T h e s t u d y c o n c l u d e s t h a t (1) l o c a l
p r o g r a m m i n g c an c o s t l i t t l e t o p r o d u c e ,
(2) c o m m u n i t y - o r i e n t e d p r o g r a m m i n g c a n a t
t i m e s h a v e h i g h a u d i e n c e a p p e a l , (3) l o c a l
volunteer groups can produce only a few
h o u r s of p r o g r a m m i n g p e r w e e k t o a t m o s t
p e r h a p s e n o u g h f o r 1 o r 2 c h a n n e l s , (4)
to sur v i v e financially, CATV s ystems gen­
e r a l l y must i mport d i s t a n t s t a t i o n s as
well as c a r r y s i g n a l s fro m loc a l s t a t i o n s
(no o t h e r m e a n s f o r a t t r a c t i n g s u b s c r i b e r s
h a s y e t b e e n s h o w n t o b e v i a b l e ) , (5) C A T V
o p e r a t o r s s h o u l d b e r e g u i r e d to r e n t o u t
e q u i p m e n t , to m a k e a v a i l a b l e t h e i r s t u d i o s ,
and to p r o v i d e free c h a n n e l s for c o m m unity
p r o g r a m m i n g , a n d (6) C A T V o p e r a t o r s s h o u l d
a l s o be r e q u i r e d to m a k e c h a n n e l s a v a i l a b l e
on a leased basis with the c a b l e o p e r a t o r
a b s o l v e d of r e s p o n s i b i l i t y for p r o g r a m
content.
U3 pp.
(A u t h o r )

R-576-OEO
E a r n i n g s Mob i l i t y and E c o ­
nomic Growth.
J. J. M c C a l l .
October
1970.
A m o d i f i e d Markov a n a l y s i s of movem e n t into
a n d o ut of l ow e a r n i n g s by w o r k e r s ag e d
2 5 to 55 d u r i n g 1 9 5 7 - 1 9 6 6 .
B a s e d on t h e
S o c i a l S e c u r i t y 1% C o n t i n u o u s W o r k H i s t o r y
Sample, yearly transition probabilities
were c a l c u l a t e d for i n d i v i d u a l 10-year
e a r n i n g p r o f i l e s a n d a l s o h o r i z o n t a l l y by
age group.
Alternative low-earning stan­
dards were $1500, S3000, and $4500 per
year.
A s i g nificant number of employed
p e r s o n s r e m a i n e d p o o r r e g a r d l e s s of e c o ­
n o m i c gro w t h ; c h a n c e s w e r e s i m i l a r for
non w h ^ t e males and w h i t e females, highest
for n o n w h i t e females.
White males were
m o s t l i k e l y to s t a y o u t o f p o v e r t y .
Ex­
c l u d i n g t h o s e t h a t r e m a i n b o t h in p o v e r t y
and out of po ve rt y, GNP i n c r e a s e led to
upward m o v e m e n t — more for nonwhite males
tha n for w h i t e males.
M o v ement into
c o v e r e d em p l o y m e n t was more closely related
t o p e r c e n t a g e i n c r e a s e s in G N P f o r f e m a l e s
than males.
The proportion of female
e a r n e r s w h o a r e o u t of t h e p o v e r t y l e v e l
w a s s i g n i f i c a n t l y h i g h e r for whi t e s , e x ­
c ept for the 25-34 age group.
80 pp.
Ref .
(M )
W




R-577-OEO
S t r u c t u r e , I n c o m e , and Race:
A S t u d y in I n t e r n a l L a b o r M a r k e t s .
A. J. A l e x a n d e r .
O c t o b e r 19 7 0 .
E x a m i n e s the s t a t i s t i c a l r e l a t i o n s h i p s
a m o n g job s t a b i l i t y , f i r m a n d i n d u s t r y
s t r u c t u r e , and the w o r k e r s * age, e x p e r i ­
ence, race, and e a r nings, from data in
over 16,000 Social Security records for
1 9 6 5 f r o m m a l e s a g e d 20 t o 6 0 ( 9 0 % w h i t e ) .
Large, complex, high-capital, h i g h - t e c h ­
nology, high-paying "manorial" firms are
i d e n t i f i a b l e by 85% or m o r e job s t a b i l i t y .
M a n o r i a l i n d u s t r y r a n k i n g s on t h a t b a s i s
alone agree with economists' observations.
N onwhi t e s ' income, h i g h e s t in m a n o r i a l i n ­
d u s t r i e s , is t w i c e a s r e s p o n s i v e as whites'
to firm size.
T h e i r a v e r a g e p a y o f f to
ag e a n d e x p e r i e n c e is m u c h less, h o w e v e r ,
m ainly b ecause n o n w h i t e s did not reach
the hig h e s t positions.
T h e e v i d e n c e is
strong for separate racial promotion lad­
d e r s , e x p e c i a l l y in t h e S o u t h , w h e r e n o n ­
w h i t e s a p p e a r to be r e l e g a t e d to d e a d - e n d
jobs.
Previous industry experience out­
s i d e the f i r m p a y s o f f a l m o s t e q u a l l y
b e t w e e n races; a f t e r a b o u t 5 y e a r s of f i r m
e x p e r i e n c e the n o n w h i t e s ' i n c o m e c u r v e
p a r a l l e l s the w h i t e s ' , s u g g e s t i n g th a t
pe r haps em p l o y e r s regard their first few
ye a r s ' e x p e r i e n c e a s an e x t e n d e d t r ial
period.
37 pp.
(MW)

R-578-OEO
R a c e D i f f e r e n c e s in I n c o m e .
A. W o h l s t e t t e r , S. B. C o l e m a n .
October
1970.
C o m p a r e s the e n t i r e n o n w h i t e / w h i t e i n c o m e
d i s t r i b u t i o n over time, for i n dividuals,
for f a m i l i e s , a n d for m a l e s and f e m a l e s ,
c o r r e c t s for age, e d u c a t i o n a l , and o c c u p a ­
tional distribution, and uses a new tec h ­
nique for d e t e r m i n i n g i n e g u a l i t y within
groups.
A s of 1 9 6 6 - 1 9 6 9 , n o n w h i t e i n d i v i ­
dual and family i n c o m e s are much lower than
those of whites, the d i s p a r i t y being acute
at th e t o p of t he d i s t r i b u t i o n .
Nonwhite
i n c o m e is a l s o m or e u n s t a b l e .
Educational
return is sma l l e r for n o n w h i t e men than
w h i t e men, but l a r g e r for n o n w h i t e w o m e n
than white women.
Income difference be­
t w e en men and wo me n is s m a l l e r a m o n g no nwhites than among whites.
For women, white
income su p e r i o r i t y is due a l most entirely
to o c c u p a t i o n a l d i s t r i b u t i o n ; for men o n l y
a t h i r d of the d i s p a r i t y c an be a t t r i b u t e d
to m a j o r o c c u p a t i o n s .
Since unemployment
r a t e s a nd d i f f e r e n t p r o p o r t i o n s in p o v e r t y
a c c o u n t for ve r y l i t t l e of t h e o v e r a l l i n ­
c o m e d i s p a r i t y , an a p p r o p r i a t e p o l i c y o b ­
jective would p r o b a b l y be a more equal
d i s t r i b u t i o n of n o n w h i t e s and w h i t e s a m o n g
middle- and high-paying detailed occupa­
tions.
1 1 8 pp.
Ref(MW)

330
-6 0 -

R-579-OEO
Income' G u a r a n t e e s a n d t h e
W o r k i n g ?oor:
The e f f e c t of I n c o m e
M a i n t e n a n c e P r o g r a m s on t h e H o a r s of
W o r k o f Mali' F a m i l y H e a d s .
D. H.
Groo n b t i r g , .V. K o s t e r s .
D e c e m b e r 1970.
Analyzer, e c o n o m i c e f f e c t s o f a l t e r n a t i v e
income maintenance programs, considering
n a l e r e c i p i e n t s ' w o r k or l e i s u r e c h o i c e s .
L a b o r s u p p l y p a r a m e t e r s w e r e e s t i m a t e d by
regression techniques from annual hours
w o r k e d in 1967 by a b o u t 6 0 0 0 m a l e h o u s e ­
h o l d h e a d s u n d e r 62 w i t h v a r y i n g l e v e l s
of wage and nonemployment income.
About
2.3 m i l l i o n s uch f a m i l i e s would p r o b a b l y
p a r t i c i p a t e in t h e N i x o n F a m i l y A s s i s t a n c e
P r o g r a m , r e c e i v i n g $4 b i l l i o n a n n u a l l y in
c a s h a nd f o o d s t a m p s .
A b o u t 6 2 % w o u l d go
to w h i t e s ; 167. t o H e g r o e s ; o v e r 2 / 1 to
f a m i l i e s of 6 or m o r e ; 1/3 t o i n n e r c i t i e s ;
1/3 to r u r a l a r e a s ; m o r e t h a n h a l f to
f a m i l i e s with p r e p r o g r a m incomes over
$4000.
P a r t i c i p a t i n g f a m i l y heads' work
w o u l d d e c r e a s e by 19 T ( w o r t h 5 1 . 4 b i l l i o n )
— o n e h a l f of o n e p e r c e n t o f h o u r s w o r k e d
by the e n t i r e labor f o r c e — so f a m i l y i n c o m e
w o u l d i n c r e a s e by 5 2 . 6 b i l l i o n not.
All
e f f e c t s a r e h i g h l y s e n s i t i v e to ta x r a t e s
a n d t h e g e n e r o s i t y of th e pla n a d o p t e d .
146 pp.
(FW)

R-580-QEO
E n h a n c i n g O p p o r t u n i t i e s in
Job Markets;
S u m m a r y of R e s e a r c h an d
R e c o m m e n d a t i o n s for Poli c y .
A. H.
Pascal.
M a r c h 1 9 71.
Policy and program re c o m m e n d a t i o n s and a
s y n t h e s i s of 1 9 7 0 r e s e a r c h o n m a n p o w e r
program evaluation, youth employment op­
p o r t u n i t y , l a b o r m a r k e t i m p e d i m e n t s to
d i s a d v a n t a g e d worke r s , e f f e c t s of n a t i o n a l
p o l i c y on t h e p o o r , a n d r a c e d i f f e r e n c e s
in income.
A s u s t a i n e d h i g h l e v e l of
a g g r e g a t e d e m a n d is i m p o r t a n t f o r t h e
e c o n o m i c h e a l t h of f a m i l i e s of p o o r a n d
mod e r a t e incomes.
A d m ission into new
o c c u p a t i o n s would give b l a c k s a structure
s i m i l a r to w h i t e s .
S e n s i t i v i t y to d e m a n d
i s n o t c o u n t e r b a l a n c e d by d i s a d v a n t a g e s
i m p o s e d by i n f l a t i o n o n t h e p o o r .
In­
e q u a l i t y in j o b o p p o r t u n i t y c o n t i n u e s to
be p e r v a s i v e E m p l o y e r s ' c o n t i n u e to act
o u t t h e i r u n c e r t a i n t y o v e r n e w h i r e s in
l e s s - f r e q u e n t h i r i n g a n! p r o m o t i o n of
di s a d v a n t a g e d workers.
W a y s to i n c r e a s e
p r o m o t i o n o p p o r t u n i t i e s s h o u l d be u r g e n t l y
sought.
A h i g h gua ra nt.ee/h i g h t a x e a r n i n g
w e l f a r e p r o g r a m would b e n e f i t the p oor
without decreasing national output sub­
stantially.
Other suggestions include
(1) f i n a n c i a l g r a n t s f o e l o n g - d i s t a n c e
m o v e s ; (2) a m i n i m u m w a g e t a i l o r e d to
y o u n g w o r k e r s ; (3) a n e w s y s t e m o f v o c a ­
t i o n a l e d u c a t i o n ; a n d (4) i m p r o v e d o r g a n i ­
zation of exi s t i n g data.
6 5 pp.
Ref.
(SH)




R - 5 9 3— T!riD/RC
A i d s to D e c i s i o n m a k i n g in
P olice Patrol.
J. S. K a k a l i k , S.
Wildhorn.
F e b r u a r y 1971.
O v e r v i e w of m a j o r f i n d i n g s o f a s t u d y o f
a i d s to p o l i c e p a t r o l d e c i s i o n m a k i n g .
With incr e a s i n g d e m a n d s on U n i t e d local
g o v e r n m e n t funds, t h e r e is a g r o w i n g need
f o r e f f e c t i v e a i d s t o d e c i s i o n m a k i n g in
determining proper patrol force strength,
e q u i t a b l e d i s t r i b u t i o n of p a t r o l s e r v i c e s
by p o l i c e d i s t r i c t and tour of duty, and
ef f ective o p e r ational policies and tactics
for police patrol.
In a d d r e s s i n g t h e s e
m a j o r i s s u e r , this s t u d y s u g g e s t s that
p o l i c e d e p a r t m e n t s (1) u s e c e r t a i n m u l t i p l e
c r i t e r i a in d e c i s i o n m a k i n g , (2) d e v e l o p i n ­
p r o v e d m e t h o d s in a l l o c a t i n g p a t r o l r e ­
s o u r c e s , (1) c o l l e c t c e r t a i n m a n a g e m e n t o r i e n t e d d a t a , (4) h i r e c o m p e t e n t c i v i l i a n
p l a n n e r s a n d g i v e t h e m r e a d y a c c e s s to t o p
p o l i c e m a n a g e m e n t , a n d (r' u n d e r t a k e l o n g ­
)
term r e s e a r c h to b r i d g e gaps in p r e s e n t r e ­
l a t i o n s h i p s b e t w e e n p o l i c e r e s o u r c e s and
police effectiveness.
11 5 pp.
(See a l s o
R-593 (Abridged), R-594.)
(KB)

R - 5 9 3 - H U D / R C (Abridged)
A i d s to D e c i ­
s i o n m a k i n g in P o l i c e P a t r o l :
A Summary
of S t u d y F i n d i n g s .
J. S. K a k a l i k . S.
W ild horn.
F e b r u a r y 1971.
T h i s r e p o r t is a s u m m a r y of R-593-I1UD/PC.
15 pp.
(KB)

R-594-HUD/PC
A i d s t o D e c i s i o n m a k i n g in
Police Patrol:
Survey Response.
J. S.
K a k a l i k , S. W i l d h o r n .
F e b r u a r y 1971.
A c o m p a n i o n stu d y to R-593, t h i s r e p o r t
c o n t a i n s the d e t a i l e d r e s u l t s of a s u r v e y
of p o l i c e p a t r o l in 6 m a j o r U .S. p o l i c e
jurisdictions:
L .A . City Police, L . A .
C o u n t y S h e r i f f ' s D e p a r t m e n t , P h o e n i x Police,
St. L o u i s M e t r o p o l i t a n P o l i c e , a n d t w o
other municipal police departments.
Infor­
m a t i o n w a s o b t a i n e d by b o t h q u e s t i o n n a i r e ,
and p e r s o n a l i n t e r v i e w on f u n c t i o n s and
a c t i v i t i e s of the p a t r o l force; c o s t s , m a n ­
p o w e r use a nd o p e r a t i o n ; p a t r o l t a c t i c s
and o p e r a t i o n s ; d e p l o y m e n t i c t h odo l og y ;
t
pa t r o 1 - s e r v i c e demand; records and handling
data; c o m p u t e r s y s t e m s e r v i c e s ; i n t e r n a l
p l a n n i n g and r e s e a r c h ; o u t s i d e c o n s u l t a n t s ;
and the j u r i s d i c t i o n ' s v i e w of i m p o r t a n t
problems.
S u r ve y r e s p o n s e is p r e s e n t e d
v e r b a t i m a n d in d e t a i l in t h i s d o c u m e n t .
112 p p .
(See a l s o R - 5 9 3 . )
(SM)

R-621-NYC
The Police Internal A d m i n i s ­
t r a t i o n o f J u s t i c e in New Y o r k C i t y .
B. C o h e n .
N o v e m b e r 1970.
A n a n a l y s i s of N Y C P o l i c e D e p a r t m e n t r e c ­
o r d s s h o w i n g a l l e g a t i o n s of m i s c o n d u c t
a g a i n s t 1 9 1 5 p o l i c e o f f i c e r s a p p o i n t e d in

331
-611957, a nd the d i s p o s i t i o n of t h o s e a l l o c a ­
tions.
T h e m ain f i n d i n g s were:
Of 204
c r i s i i n a l - m i s b c h a v i o r a l l e g a t i o n s , 31 w e r e
b r o u g h t to d e p a r t m e n t a l trial; 6 r e s u l t e d
in s e v e r e d i s p o s i t i o n s .
Of t h e 2 0 4 a l ­
l e g a t i o n s , 1HU w o r e f o r c o r r u p t i o n ; 23
r e s u l t e d in f o r m a l c h a r g e s a n d a h e a r i n g ,
a n d 5 of t h e s e w e r e g i v e n s e v e r e d i s p o s i ­
tions.
O nly 1 off i c e r c h a r g e d with a c c e p t ­
ing a gratuity received a penalty more
severe than a verbal sanction or minor
fine.
Host civilian complaints were dis­
m i s s e d or f i l e d ; of 54 1 r e c o r d e d , 21 o f ­
f i c e r s we r e found guil t y , w ith 1 c a s e re­
s u l t i n g in a fine.
None of 230 " p r o t e s t
s u m m o n s " c a s e s w ere b r o u g h t to trial.
F o r an 1 1 - y e a r p e r i o d , o n l y 5 o f t h e 1 9 1 5
men were s u s pended for c r i m i n a l c h a r g e s
or civilian complaints.
No s i g n i f i c a n t
d i f f e r e n c e s in t h e w a y t h e d e p a r t m e n t
h a n d l e s mi s c o n d u c t were obs e r v e d between
races.
94 pp.
(DGS)

R-632-NYC
A Simulation Model of Fire
Department Operations:
Design and Pre­
l iminary Results.
G. M. C a r t e r , E.
Ignall.
N o v e m b e r 1970.
A s i m u l a t i o n m o d e l d e s i g n e d to c o m p a r e
different policies for locating, relocat­
ing, a nd d i s p a t c h i n g f i r e - f i g h t i n g u n i t s
describedI
treated include:
the
u s e o f i n t e r n a l m e a s u r e s of p e r f o r m a n c e
as p r o x i e s for g l o b a l o n e s ; the use of
a n a l y t i c a l m o d e l s f o r v a r i o u s subprobleras
to yield policies to be tested; the han­
d l i n g of l o s s o f l i f e a n d o t h e r i m p o r t a n t
but ra r e events.
The S I M S C R I P T 1.5 s i mula­
tor and input and post-simulation analysis
programs are described.
Results that have
been used by the Fire D e p a r t m e n t of the
C i t y of N e w York, a r e p r e s e n t e d a n d a n a ­
lyzed.
44 pp.
Ref.
(Author)

R-634-NYC
Factors Affecting Maintenance
a n d O p e r a t i n g C o s t s in F e d e r a l P u b l i c
Housing Projects.
C. P. R y d e l l .
De­
c e m b e r 19 7 0 .
A s t u d y o f c o s t s in N e w Y o r k C i t y p u b l i c
housing, using m ultiple r e gression ana l y s i s
to investigate price inflation, produc­
t i v i t y of i n p u t s , s t a n d a r d s o f s e r v i c e ,
deterioration, e c o n omies of scale, tenant
w e a r and tear, p r o j e c t d e s i g n , a nd p r o j e c t
l o c a t i o n as h y p o t h e s i z e d c a u s e s of c os t
variation.
F rom 1 9 3 9-1967, 91% of m a i n ­
tenance and operating cost variation re­
s u lted from price inflation, project aging,
c h a n g e s in s e r v i c e , p r o j e c t s ize, a nd
a v e r a g e unit size.
M&O e x p e n s e s have in­
c r e a s e d 5% per y ear s i n c e the 1940s; t h i s
means that housing rents must increase
f a s t e r o r n e w k i n d s of s u b s i d i e s m u s t be
found.
Project aging increases maintenance
costs.
Larger a p a r t m e n t s are more e x p e n ­




s i v e to run, but the i n c r e a s e is l e s s than
p r o p o r t i o n a l t o t h e i n c r e a s e in s i z e .
O b s e r v e d c o s t s a v i n g s in l a r g e r p r o j e c t s
s e e m to r e s u l t f r o m l a r g e r M & O o r g a n i z a ­
ti o n s , n o t from p h y s i c a l s i z e .
8 6 pp.
(SM)

R-638-NYC
T h e F l o w of A r r e s t e d Adu l t
D e f e n d a n t s t h r o u g h the M a n h a t t a n C r i m ­
i n a l C o u r t in 1 9 6 3 a n d 1 9 6 9 .
J. B.
Jennings.
J a n u a r y 1971.
T h i s s t u d y is d e s i g n e d to i d e n t i f y o p e r a t ­
ing p r o b l e m s and to p r o v i d e a f r a m e w o r k fo r
a n a l y s i s of r e s o u r c e a l l o c a t i o n p r o b l e m s
and c o urt procedures.
The s t u d y followed
some 5000 cases through the court, 90% of
w h i c h f o l l o w e d o n e o f 8 o r 9 direct, p a t h s
t h r ough arra i g n m e n t , heari n g , and trial.
N u m b e r s o f a r r a i g n m e n t s i n c r e a s e d b y 15 %
in 1969.
D i s p o s i t i o n p a t t e r n s r e m a i n e d the
same.
Average duration for cases entering
t h e c o u r t w a s 9 w e e k s ; 5 E t o o k o v e r 10
months.
Duration varied from 1 3 . 1-week
av e r a g e for felonies and 1 2.8-week a v e r a g e
f o r m i s d e m e a n o r s to 2 . 7 - w e e k a v e r a g e f o r
violations.
Felonies and vi o l a t i o n s showed
n o c h a n g e in d u r a t i o n , b u t m i s d e m e a n o r s
p a s s e d t h r o u g h mo r e q u i c k l y , with 2 7 % i n ­
c r e a s e in n u m b e r s i n 1 9 6 9 .
U p d a t i n g of
t h i s s u r v e y is s u g g e s t e d and a p r e d i c t i v e

1 n'.odol. o f t h
case-flow
(See a l s o

process is recommended.
RM-6464.)
(SM)

?_^
14 4

pp.

R-648-NYC
H o u s i n g C o d e E n f o r c e m e n t in
New York City.
M. B. T e i t z , S.
Rosenthal.
F e b r u a r y 19 7 1 .
An e x a m i n a t i o n of N Y C ’ e f f o r t s to e n f o r c e
s
the Hou s i n g M a i n t e n a n c e Code for rental
h o using through the O f f i c e of C o d e E n f o r c e ­
ment (OCE). Wid e s p r e a d u n d e r m a i n t e n a n c e
r e s ults from e conomic and s o cial forces
t o o p o w e r f u l t o b e o v e r c o m e b.y t h e O C E .
T o o - r i g i d rent controls, o p e r a t i n g cost
i n c r e a s e s , p o v e r t y - s t r i c k e n t e n a nt s, and
v a n d a l i s e f o r c e l a n d l o r d s to u n d e r m a i n t a i n
and aba n d o n buildings.
Much O C E e f f o r t is
wasted:
i n s p e c t i o n s r e v e a l t r i v i a l or d u p ­
l i c a t e c o m p l a i n t s , or c h r o n i c o f f e n d e r s .
I n f o r m a t i o n g a t h e r e d when c o m p l a i n t s are
p l a c e d and d u r i n g i n s p e c t i o n s is i n a d e ­
quate.
Reso u r c e s a v a i l a b l e through OCF
i n c l u d e n o n e a p p r o p r i a t e f o r b u i l d i n g s in
real financial distress.
Violators brought
to c o u r t t y p i c a l l y r e c e i v e t r i v i a l p u n i s h ­
ment.
The system needs redesigning:
(1)
OCE must a c q u i r e legal a u t h o r i t y and fi ­
n a n c i a l r e s o u r c e s to r e s p o n d p r o m p t l y , a p ­
propriately, effectively.
(2) H o u s i n g
s t a n d a r d s n e e d r e v i s i o n to r e f l e c t t h e
r e a l i t i e s of the m a r k e t p l a c e .
(3) O C E
n e e d s p r o c e d u r e s to i d e n t i f y s u b s t a n d a r d
b u i l d i n g s in e n o u g h d e t a i l for a p p r o p r i a t e
response.
Even s uch a r e d e s i g n e d program

332
-

62 -

n e e d s support from a 'jo^r a \ i y improved
uarkot.
77 pp.
(SM)

R-649-NYC
R e n t a l H o u s i n g in Nev.- t o r k
City.
V o l u m e II:
T h e D e m a n d for
Shelter.
I. S. L o w r y , J. S. D o S a l v o ,
B. V o o d f ill.
J u n e 19 7 1 .
Th i s s t u d y i s i n t e n d e d p r i m a r i l y to s h e d
l i g h t o n t h e a b i l i t y of t h e C i t y ' s 2.1
m i l l i o n r e n t e r h o u s e h o l d s t o pay for a d e ­
quate housing.
It t r a c e s r e c e n t c h a n g e s
in t h e n u m b e r s a n d c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s o f th e
City's households, their living arrange­
ments, and their incomes.
I t e x a m i n e s t he
c h a n g i n g p a t t e r n of r e n t e x p e n d i t u r e s by
t h e s e h o u s e h o l d s and a n a l y z e s t h e v a r i a ­
tions in rent e x p e n d i t u r e s among different
t y p o s of h o u s e h o l d s a n d i n t h e C i t y ' s
principal housing submarkets.
It shows
who has benefited from the C i t y ' s program
of rent c o n t r o l and how l a r g e t h e b e n e f i t s
have been.
It a l s o s h o w s h o w t h e s y s t e m
of rent c o n t r o l has a f f e c t e d the p a t t e r n
of h o u s i n g c o n s u m p t i o n a n d r e n t e x p e n d i ­
tures.
F i n a l l y , on t h e b a s i s o f 1 9 6 8 d a t a ,
it a t t e m p t s to d i s t i n g u i s h w h i c h a m o n g t h e
Ci t y ' s renter ho u s e h o l d s were then unable
to a f f o r d a d e q u a t e h o u s i n g w i t h o u t some
f o r m of a s s i s t a n c e a n d t o e s t i m a t e h o w
much a s s i stance these h o useholds needed.
34 3 pp.
(See a l s o P M - 6 1 9 0 . )
(Author)

R-675-H0D
R e s p o n s e of E m e r g e n c y Units:
T h e E f f e c t s of B a r r i e r s , D i s c r e t e
Streets, and O ne-Way Streets.
R. C.
Larson.
A p r i l 1971.
In r e a l i s t i c u r ban e n v i r o n m e n t s , e m e r g e n c y
r e s p o n s e vehicles may e n c o u n t e r o n e - w a y
s t r e e t s and b a r r i e r s s uch a s r i v e r s t hat
impede rapid response.
Formulas are de­
v e l o p e d for the a s s o c i a t e d i n c r e a s e in
m e a n t r a v e l d i s t a n c e , u s i n g a m o d e l in
w h i c h b o t h the d e m a n d s f o r s e r v i c e a n d t h e
l o c a t i o n s of t h e v e h i c l e are u n i f o r m l y
d i s t r i b u t e d over the r e s p o n s e area.
Bar­
r i e r s of e v e n m o d e r a t e s i z e are found to
i n c rease average travel distance less than
10%, a n d a s y s t e m o f o n e - w a y s t r e e t s i n ­
c r e a s e s t h e a v e r a g e d i s t a n c e by 2 b l o c k
lengths.
H o w e v e r , in 6 . 2 % o f r e s p o n s e s
o n a o n e - w a y s t r e e t grid, the v e h i c l e has
t o t r a v e l an e x t r a 6 b l o c k l e n g t h s .
42 pp.
(Author)

R-680-HUD/USF
Methods for A l l o c a t i n g
Urban Emergency Units.
J. C h a i k e n ,
R. C. L a r s o n .
May 1971.
A s u r v e y of c u r r e n t r e s e a r c h on the a l l o c a ­
t i o n of m u n i c i p a l e m e r g e n c y s e r v i c e s y s ­
tems, w i t h the e m p h a s i s on p o l i c e p a t r o l
car.; a n d f i r e e n g i n e s a n d l a d d e r s .
The
a s p e c t s of allo c a t i o n p olicy d i s cussed are




(1) d e t e r m i n i n g t h e n u m b e r o f u n i t s
( v e h i c l e s ) n e e d e d on d u t y in e a c h g e o g r a p h ­
i c a l a r e a a t d i f f e r e n t t i m e s o f t h e d a y or
w e e k , (2) s e l e c t i n g t h e u n i t (s) t o r e s p o n d
t o a p a r t i c u l a r i n c i d e n t , (3) d e t e r m i n i n g
Lhe l o c a t i o n s o r p a t r o l a r e a s f o r t h e u n i t s
c'1 d u t y ar.* d e s i g n i n g p a t r o l c o v e r a g e
*
patterns’
,
" l' d e c i d i n g w h e n u n i t s
s h o u l d be r e d e p l o y e d ^
'.-.prove s e r v i c e in
areas where a large number u I units are
t e m p o r a r i l y busy.
The report describes
bot h t r a d i t i o n a l r u l e s of t h u s b f or a l l o c a ­
tion and newer q u a n t i t a t i v e m e t h o d s based
o n q u e u i n g t h e o r y , g e o g r a p h i c a l m o d e l s , and
s i m u lation models.
6 6 pp .
Ref.
(Author)

R-681
Urban Fire Protection:
Studies
of the O p e r a t i o n s of the New York Ci t y
Fire Department.
E. H. B l u n .
January
1 971.
D e s c r i p t i o n of u r b a n f i r e p r o t e c t i o n
s t u d i e s b e i n g c o n d u c t e d j o i n t l y h y t h e Fir»»
D e p a r t m e n t o f t h e C i t y o f N e w Y o r k (FDNY)
and The New York C i t y - H a n d I n s t i t u t e .
Un­
der w a y now nearly three years, these
s t u d i e s have:
(1) c r e a t e d t h e p e r s p e c ­
t ive s , m e t h o d s , a p p r o a c h e s a n d r e s u l t s of
a n e w a n a l y t i c a l f i e l d ; (2) t r a ^ f s f o r n e d
these re s e a r c h p r o d u c t s into policies,
h e l p e d p u t the p o l i c i e s i n t o p r a c t i c e and
e v a l u a t e d r e s u l t s ; (3) h e l p e d a l t e r t h e
F D N Y 's f i r e - f i g h t i n g t e c h n o l o g y , t h e o p e r a ­
t i o n of i t s d i s p a t c h i n g s y s t e m , a n d t h e
w a y s it m a n a g e s a n d d e p l o y s i t s m e n a n d
e q u i p m e n t ; (4) y i e l d e d g a i n s in o p e r a t i o n a l
e f f e c t i v e n e s s v a l u e d at m a n y a i l l i o n d o l ­
l a r s p e r y e a r — a n n u a l r e t u r n s m o r e t h a n ter*
t i m e s t h e s t u d i e s ' c o s t ; (5) h e l p e d t h e
FDNY develop new problem-solving c a p a b i l i ­
ties and i m p r o v e i ts b a s e s f o r f u t u r e d e ­
cis i o n s and policies.
( P r e s e n t e d at S y m ­
p o s i u m on U r b a n F i r e s , AAAS 137th A n n u a l
Meeting.)
23 p p.
(Author)

R-702-NYC
M i n o r i t y R e c r u i t i n g in t h e
New York City Police Department:
Part
I.
T h e A t t r a c t i o n o f C a n d i d a t e s ; PartII.
T h e R e t e n t i o n of C a n d i d a t e s .
I. C.
H u n t , J r . , B. Cohen..
M a y 197 1.
The P o l i c e D e p a r t m e n t i n c r e a s e d the p r o p o r ­
t ion of m i n o r i t y g r o u p r e c r u i t s f rom
i n 1 9 5 7 t o 18* i n 1969..
Nonetheless, since
t h e C i t y p o n u l a t i o n i s 11 % b l a c k a n d
P u e r t o Rican, f u r t h e r e f f o r t s at m i n o r i t y
r e c r u i t i n g are required.
Advertisements
in t h e D a i l y N e w s a n d o n s u b w a y p o s t e r s ,
use of e x i s t i n g o r g a n i z a t i o n s of m i n o r i t y
group policemen, and greater personal c o n ­
t a c t with a p p l i c a n t s by the P o l i c e D e p a r t ­
m e n t a p p e a r to be th e b e s t a p p r o a c h e s .
Minority group can d i d a t e s are more in­
t e r e s t e d in t h e s e r v i c e a s p e c t s of p o l i c e
work, as o p p o s e d to pay or f r i n g e b e n e f i t s ,
than their white count e r p a r t s .
They are

8 1 - 7 4 5 O - 7 2 - pt. 1 - - 2 2

333
-63-

a l s o m o r e l i k e l y t o d r o p o u t of the l e n g t h y
and somewhat c o n f u s i n g a ppointment process.
T h i s a t t r i t i o n s e ens to r e s u l t froa the
i n d i v i d u a l s l a c k o f 1a o t i v a t i o n r a t h e r
than froa outright rejection.
Among candi­
dates who completed all the steps in the
application process, the fraction accepted
by the police Departaent did not differ
by race.
117 p p .
(Author)

8-703-NSF
Fire I n s u r a n c e and the Inner
City.
H. D. S h a p i r o .
F e b r u a r y 1971.
F i r s t in a s e r i e s of p r o j e c t e d r e p o r t s on
t h e p r i v a t e m a r k e t in f i r e p r o t e c t i o n .
This report describes the problems dealing
v i t h t he s t a t e o f f i r e i n s u r a n c e in t he
i n n e r c o r e of m a j o r m e t r o p o l i t a n area s .
Fire insurance plays a significant role
in t h e e c o n o m i c h e a l t h of i n n e r - c i t y n e i g h ­
borhoods because most financial institu­
t i o n s r e q u i r e a p r o p e r t y t o b e c o v e r e d by
in surance before they will lend its owner
any money.
In r e c e n t y e a r s , i n n e r - c i t y
property owners have had great difficulty
in o b t a i n i n g i n s u r a n c e c o v e r a g e .
After
the c i v i l d i s o r d e r s of the m i d - 1 9 6 0 s e x ­
a c e r b a t e d the problem, federal l e g islation
was introduced; while it has e x p a n d e d the
a v a i l a b i l i t y o f i n s u r a n c e , c o v e r a g e is
still costly or unobtainable for many
inner-city property owners.
The sources
of t h e p r o b l e m lie in t h e d e c a y of the
i n n e r c i t y a n d t h e r e f u s a l of the i n s u r a n c e
i n d u s t r y to a d a p t its m e t h o d s to t he c h a n g ­
ing urban environment.
U1 p p .
(Author)

RAND MEMORANDA
RM-2824-FF
Transportation for Future
Orban Communities:
A Study Prospectus.
Logistics Department.
A u g u s t 1961.
Pre l i m i n a r y out l i n e of the RAND s t udy of
urban transportation.
T e c h n i q u e s u s e d by
many major m e t r o p o l i t a n a r e a s in urban
analysis are described, and the gross
c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s o f a m o d e l d e s i g n e d to
■eet s o m e s u g g e s t e d c r i t e r i a f o r f u r t h e r
research are examined.
The discussion
presents a framework for a research pro­
gram on u r b a n tra n s p o r t a t i o n , a nd then
divides the subject into a number of
s t u d i e s t h a t not only vi l l make an i m p o r ­
tant ind e p e n d e n t c o n t r i b u t i o n to urban
a n a l y s i s , b ut w i l l a l s o a l l o w an o v e r - a l l
i n t e g r a t i o n of r e s u l t s .
5 3 pp.

RH-2878-FF
A First Approximation to a
R A H D M o d e l f o r S t u d y of O r b a n T r a n s p o r ­
tation.
J , F. K a i n , J. R. M e y e r .
No-




v e m b e r 1961.
A d e s c r i p t i o n of a g e n e r a l i z e d m o d e l o f a n
urban complex for studying the i n t r i c a t e
interrelationships between transportation
a n d the s p a t i a l o r g a n i z a t i o n of e c o n o m i c
activities.
While the behavioral rela­
t i o n s h i p s s u g g e s t e d in t h i s f i r s t a p p r o x i m a t i o n f a l l s h o r t of c o n s t i t u t i n g a f u l l
" s t r u c t u r a l m o d e l " of u r b a n e c o n o m i c a n d
social processes, they do provide a sys­
t e m a t i c f r a m e w o r k for c o l l e c t i n g s o m e of
t h e i n f o r m a t i o n n e e d e d to c o n s t r u c t m o r e
c o m p l e t e and b a s i c models.
5 7 p p.

RM-2922-FF
A u t o m o b i l e s — Today and Tonorrov.
G. A. n o f f m a n .
N o v e m b e r 1962A d e s c r i p t i o n of t h e g e n e r a l c h a r a c t e r i s ­
tics of modern a u t o m obiles.
The presentday p a s s e n g e r ca r is a n a l y z e d i n t o its
b a s i c c o m p o n e n t s ; a l i n e a r r e l a t i o n is
established between each component and
over-all vehicle weight.
Future possibil­
it i e s in a u t o m o b i l e c o m p o n e n t s are examined, a n d the p r o b a b l e v e h i c l e s of t he
1970's are described.
9 1 pp.

RH— 308 6 — FF
A Hultiple Equation Model
of H o u s e h o l d L o c a t i o n a l a n d Tripraaking
Behavior.
J. F. K a i n .
A p r i l 19 6 2 .
A d e s c r i p t i o n of a m u l t i p l e - e q u a t i o n
m o d e l of h o u s e h o l d l o c a t i o n a l and t r ipmaking behavior.
T h e a n a l y s i s is d e ­
s i g n e d to e x p l o r e the i n t e r r e l a t i o n s h i p s
in consumption between housing and trans­
portation.
The multiple-equation recur­
sive model used is e s t i m a t e d by a p p l y i n g
least-squares multiple regression tech­
n i q u e s to data o b t a i n e d froa the 1953 De­
troit Area T r a f f i c Study.
7 6 pp.

RM-3099-FF
D e c r e a s i n g T r a v e l Time for
F r e e w a y Users.
R. H. H a a s e .
October
1962.
A n i n v e s t i g a t i o n of p o s s i b l e m e t h o d s of
i n c r e a s i n g t h e u s e of f r e e w a y s .
The cri­
t e r i o n used is t h a t of m i n i m i z i n g t r a v e l
time r a t h e r than m a x i m i z i n g flow.
An
i d e a l i z e d m o d e l of a t y p i c a l f r e e w a y t rip
s h o w s t hat t r a v e l t i m e may be r e d u c e d by
ma i n t a i n i n g the d e n s i t y of c a r s below a
cr i tical level.
T h i s c a n be a c c o m p l i s h e d
b y r e s t r i c t i n g th e f l o w of c a r s o n t o t he
f r e e w a y a n d by m a i n t a i n i n g o f f - r a m p c a p a c ­
ity in excess of on-ramp capacity.
Sug­
gestions are included for possible techni­
cal d e v e l o p m e n t s that may increase freeway
utility.
3 2 pp.

RH-3298-PF
Hoffman.

Blectric M o tor Cars.
M a r c h - 1963.

G.

A.

334
-64-

& study of e lectric a u t o m o b i l e s that are
d e s i g n e d as the e q u i v a l e n t of their gasol i n e - e n g i n e c o u n t e r p a r t s in s i z e , c o m ­
fort, perfor n a n r e , and initial a c c e l e r a ­
tion.
T o p spee d s c o m p a r a b l e to those of
s a a l l p r e s e n t - d a y c a r s a r e s h o w n to be
realizable, though the range between re­
f u e l i n g i s not.
B a t t e r i e s a r e found to
be a m o r e p r o m i s i n g p r o s p e c t f or s t o r i n g
and d e l i v e r i n g ene r g y to the m o tor than
f ue l c o l l s u s i n g i n e x p e n s i v e fuels.
Since
t h e u s e o f e l e c t r i c a u t o n o b i l e s w o u l d re­
d u c e not o n l y a i r p o l l u t i o n a n d n o i s e , b u t
v e h i c l e c o s t s a s w e l l , it i s c o n c l u d e d
that e l e c t r i c c ars could be substi t u t e d
a d v a n t ageously for conventional cars for
individual urban transportation.
61 p p .

Population Growth.
J. H. N i e d e r c o r n .
O c t o b e r 1963.
A d e s c r i p t i o n of a n e c o n o m e t r i c m o d e l d e ­
s i g n e d to e x p l a i n the g r o w t h of e m p l o y m e n t
a n d p o p u l a t i o n i n 36 o f t h e n a t i o n ' s l a r g ­
est m e t r o politan areas.
The mode is f o r ­
mulated, estim a t e d , and tested.
Forecasts
m a d e with it i n d i c a t e tha t p o p u l a t i o n and
e m p l o y m e n t g r o w t h w i l l be r a p i d in m o s t of
these areas.
Central cities will beco m e
i n c r e a s i n g l y s p e c i a l i z e d in w h i t e - c o l l a r
employment, while blue-collar employment
w i l l te n d to m o v e to t he s u b u r b s .
In­
creased c o m muter traffic between the c en­
t r a l c i t y a n d i t s s u b u r b s is l i k e l y i n a
m a j o r i t y o f t h e 36 m e t r o p o l i t a n a r e a s .
47 pp.

RH-3664-1-FF
Recent L a n d-use Trends
in F o r t y - e i g h t L a r g e A m e r i c a n C i t i e s .
J. H. N i e d e r c o r n , E. F. R. H e a r l e .
S e p t e m b e r 1963.
A n e x a m i n a t i o n of c h a n g e s in the p r o p o r ­
t i o n s o f v a r i o u s t y p e s of l a n d in u r b a n
use.
A full set of the data regarding
l a n d use, p o p u l a t i o n , a n d e m p l o y m e n t used
in t h e a n a l y t i c a l p a r t of t h i s M e m o r a n d u m
i s i n c l u d e d in t h e a p p e n d i x e s .
The landu s e d a t a w e r e c o l l e c t e d f r o m the c i t y
p l a n n i n g c o m m i s s i o n s of t h e 48 c i t i e s ;
the e m p l o y m e n t and population data are
e s t i m a t e s m a d e by t h e a u t h o r s .
To their
K n o w l e d g e , it i s t h e m o s t n e a r l y c o n p l e t e
s e t o f s u c h d a t a in a s i n g l e p u b l i c a t i o n .
4 8 pp.

RM-3904-RC
T h e R a t e of C o m m e r c i a l C o n ­
s t r u c t i o n in a C r o s s - s e c t i o n o f A m e r i ­
can Cities, 1957-1958.
J. L. B o w e r .
D e c e m b e r 19 6 3 .
D i s c u s s i o n of an e c o n o m e t r i c s t u d y o f i n ­
v e s t m e n t in c o m m e r c i a l c o n s t r u c t i o n in the
U n i t e d S t a t e s , 1957 a n d 1958.
The M e m o ­
r a n d u m d e v e l o p s a s t r u c t u r a l m o d e l of t he
t w o p r i n c i p a l s e c t o r s of the coromercialconstruction industry (office buildings
and r e t a i l s t o r e s ) an d f i t s t h e m o d e l to
d a t a d e s c r i b i n g o f f i c e c o n t r u c t . i o n in 13
standard metropolitan statistical areas
( S M S A * s ) a n d s t o r e c o n s t r u c t i o n i n 18
SMSA's.
Several problems with the data,
precluding a fully successful conclusion
in a n y s t a t i s t i c a l sense, ar e d i s c u s s e d
a n d s u g g e s t i o n s m a d e on h o w t h e y m i g h t b e
r e s o l v e d in f u t u r e work.
42 pp.

RM-3680-RC
Urban Underground Highways
and Parking Facilities.
G. A. H o f f m a n .
A u g u s t 1963.
An e x a m i n a t i o n of the p o s s i b i l i t i e s f o r
h i g h - v o l u m e a u t o m o t i v e t r a n s p o r t a t i o n in
t he c e n t r a l c i t y by d e e p u n d e r g r o u n d t u n ­
nels and parking areas.
T h e c o s t s of
c on v e n t i o n a l urban surface highways and
of underground highways are presented.
One i n t e r p r e t a t i o n of the data is that
b e f o r e the end of th i s c e n t u r y , if t r e n d s
c o n t i n u e , it. m i g h t b e c h e a p e r i n m a n y
c i t i e s to move and park cars u n derground.
S o m e d e s i g n a n d o p e r a t i n g f e a t u r e s of
underground construction and travel are
considered.
The study c o n c l u d e s with
e x a m p l e s of w h a t h i g h w a y n e e d s m i g h t b e
if a l l t h e u s e r s of m a s s t r a n s i t s y s t e m s
w e r e t r a n s f e r r e d to p a s s e n g e r c a r s in L o s
A n g e l e s , C h i c a g o , an d M a n h a t t a n , a n d it
offers some suggestions for future study
a n d t e c h n i c a l d e v e l o p m e n t o f the u n d e r ­
ground-highway concept.
5 6 pp.

RH-3966-PC
Performance of Land T r a n s ­
portation Vehicles.
P. H. H a a s e ,
S. H. T. H o l d e n .
J a n u a r y 1964.
This Memorandum examines certain l i m i t a ­
tions, so m e p r a c t i c a l c o n s i d e r a t i o n s , and
n u m e r i c a l e x a m p l e s in d e v e l o p i n g e q u a ­
t i o n s of m o t i o n f o r v a r i o u s v e h i c l e p r o ­
pulsion systems.
The main body o f the
study c o n s i s t s of four a p pendixes:
(A) an
a n a l y s i s and s u m m a r y of p u b l i s h e d i n for­
m a t i o n o n v e h i c l e r e s i s t a n c e ; (B) a n a n a l ­
ysis and s u m mary of publ i s h e d i n f o r m a t i o n
o n t h e p r o p u l s i o n g e n e r a t e d by v a r i o u s
t y p e s o f e n e r g y c o n v e r s i o n s y s t e m s ; (C)
a c c e l e r a t i o n - s p e e d and time cu r v e s for
v a r i o u s veh i c l e p r o p u l s i o n s ystems; and
(D) e q u a t i o n s o f m o t i o n f o r t h e f o u r
p h a s e s of a t y p i c a l t rip:
accelerating,
d e c e l e r a t i o n , t r a v e l i n g at c o n s t a n t v e l ­
ocity, and r e maining stationary.
153 pp.
Bibliog.

R M - 3 7 5 8 — RC
An I m p r o v e d E c o n o m e t r i c
M o d e l of M e t r o p o l i t a n E m p l o y m e n t a nd

RN-4035-RC
M o d e l of Metr o p o l i s .
Lowry.
A u g u s t -196 4 .




I.

S.

335
-65-

d e s c r i p t i o n of a c o m p u t e r m o d e l of t h e
s p a t i a l o r g a n i z a t i o n of h u m a n a c t i v i t i e s
•ithin a metropolitan area.
T h e m o d e l is
I n t e n d e d as a dev i c e for e v a l u a t i n g the
i m p a c t on m e t r o p o l i t a n form of publ i c d e ­
cisions concerning urban renewal, tax
policies, land-use controls, and trans­
p o r t a t i o n i n v e s t m e n t s ; and for p r e d i c t i n g
t h e e f f e c t s on m e t r o p o l i t a n form, o v e r
t i m e , o f c h a n g e s in s u c h k e y v a r i a b l e s a s
e m p l o y m e n t pat t e r n , e f f i c i e n c y of t h e
t r a n s p o r t a t i o n sy st e m, an d the g r o w t h of
population.
This model has been fitted
to data for Pittsburgh.
1 4 7 pp .
Bibliog.
k

RH-4043-RC
A M o d e l of R e s i d e n t i a l L a n d
Values.
E. F. B r i g h a m .
A u g u s t 1964.
P r e s e n t a t i o n o f t he f i n d i n g s of a p i l o t
st u d y of the d e t e r m i n a n t s of res i d e n t i a l
l a n d v a l u e s in a n u r b a n a r e a .
The model
re l a t e s land values to several diff e r e n t
factors, p a r t i c u l a r l y to a s i te*s a m e n i ­
ties and its accessibility to various forms
of economic activity.
10 1 p p .
Illus.

B H — ft 1 2 5 - R C
Metropolitan Populations
t o 1985:
Trial Projections.
I. S.
Lowry.
S e p t e m b e r 1964.
A s u m m a r y o f r e s u l t s of t w o s e r i e s o f
demographic trial projections covering
e a c h o f t h e 52 l a r g e s t s t a n d a r d m e t r o p o l ­
itan statistical a r eas (SMSA’
s) in t h e
United States.
For e a c h SMSA, t he 1960
p o p u l a t i o n is d i v i d e d i n t o 60 c o m p o n e n t s
( age, by s e x a n d c o l o r ) .
O n t h e b a s i s of
e x p l i c i t a n d d e t a i l e d a s s u m p t i o n s (out­
lined in appendixes) as to birth, death,
and migration, the size of each component
is e s t i m a t e d at f i v e -year intervals, from
19 6 0 t o 1 9 8 5 .
R e s u l t s a r e c o m p a r e d to
n a t i o n a l p r o j e c t i o n s p r e p a r e d by t he B u ­
reau of the Census, and to SHSA projections
p r e p a r e d by v a r i o u s l o cal agencies.
8 8 pp .

R H - 4 1 8 6 - RC
The Impact of Urban Renewal
on Land-use.
E. F. R. H e a r l e , J. H.
Kiedercorn.
J u n e 1964.
An e x a m i n a t i o n , u s i n g d a t a f r o m 2 9 7 u r b a n
r e n e w a l p r o j e c t s i n 10 2 c i t i e s , o f c h a n g e s
i n t h e m e a n p r o p o r t i o n s of l a n d in v a r i o u s
uses, b efore and a f ter renewal.
Within
p r o j e c t areas, the m a j o r i m p a c t of r e n e w a l
is to double the land area devoted to in­
d u s t r y a n d t o t r i p l e t h e a r e a u s e d f or
public purposes.
Residential area is
sh a rply reduced, commercial area increased,
a n d s t r e e t area left a b o u t the same.
3 5 pp .

RH— 4 977-EDA
Economic Viability and
gional Development.
S. S. H a n d e l .




Re­

JLpril 1966.
A scheme for identifying underdeveloped
but v i a b l e e c o n o m i e s in w h i c h p u b l i c l y
financed development programs have the
g r e a t e s t p r o s p e c t s for s u c c e s s from bo t h
the local and n ational points of view.
An
a r e a is c o n s i d e r e d d e v e l o p e d if a l l m e m ­
bers of its population are able to earn
a s m u c h a s p e o p l e of c o m p a r a b l e a b i l i t y
e l s e w h e r e in t h e n a t i o n a l e c o n o m y , a n d if
r e g i o n a l a g g r e g a t e w e l f a r e i s at a m a x i ­
mum.
A r e g i o n is c o n s i d e r e d e c o n o m i c a l l y
v i a b l e if it c a n be d e v e l o p e d w i t h o u t
e i t h e r p e r m a n e n t s u b s i d y o r l o s s of p o p u l a ­
tion.
For viab l e but u n d e r d e v e l o p e d re­
gions, the proper policy is to remove mar­
ket i m p e r f e c t i o n s and provide i n f r a s t r u c ­
ture where equity conside r a t i o n s warrant
or historical agglomeration patterns are
inappropriate.
For nonviable economies,
t h e a l t e r n a t i v e t o p e r m a n e n t s u b s i d y is
p o p u lation a d j u stment through new e d u c a ­
tional techniques, i n f ormation and aid
f o r a l t e r n a t i v e e m p l o y m e n t , a nd l o a n s on
h u m a n c a p i t a l . , 2 7 pp.

RH-4973-EDA
Federal Loans to Private
E n t e r p r i s e under the Eco n o m i c D e v e l o p ­
me n t Act of 1965.
I. S. L o w r y .
April
1966.
P r o c e d u r e s for e v a l u a t i n g p r o j e c t p r o p o s ­
als s u b m itted to the E c o n o m i c D e v e l o p m e n t
A g e n c y in t e r m s of t h e i r e f f e c t s on o t h e r
e n t e r p r i s e s and on o t h e r c o m m u n i t i e s .
An
a n a l y s i s of the m a r k e t c o n d i t i o n s u n d e r
w h i c h e l i g i b l e f i r m s c a n be a s s i s t e d r e ­
v e a l s t hat t h e n e t r e d i s t r i b u t i o n of
e m p l o y m e n t in f a v o r of the r e d e v e l o p m e n t
area will be min i m a l if the p r incipal
c o m p e t i t o r s of t h e E D A - a s s i s t e d e n t e r p r i s e
a r e l o c a t e d in the s a m e a rea.
Negative
i m p a c t s a r e l ess l i k e l y to f o c u s on on e
o r a f e w c o m m u n i t i e s if p r o d u c e r s in t h i s
mark e t are g e o g r a p h i c a l l y d i s p e r s e d and
i f t h e m a r k e t d e m a n d f o r t h e p r o d u c t is
expanding.
Markets c h a r acterized by ex­
cess capacity are not generally attrac­
tive for new firms unless they have a
significant cost-advantage over their
predecessors.
A p p l i c a n t s for EDA a s s i s t ­
a n c e will s e l d o m be in t h i s p o s i t i o n .
A
q u a n t i t a t i v e a n a l y s i s of the p o s s i b l e i m ­
p a c t s o f E D A - a s s i s t e d v e n t u r e s on t h e
sales and employment of competing firms
and of the c o m m u n i t i e s w here t h e s e f i r m s
a r e l o c a t e d is p r e s e n t e d .
It is r e c o m ­
m e n d e d t h a t E D A i n v e s t h e a v i l y in m a r k e t
r e s e a r c h o n b e h a l f of a p p l i c a n t s f o r
f e d e r a l a s s i s t a n c e t o e n t e r p r i s e s in r e ­
d e v e l o p m e n t areas.
4 6 p p.
Refs.

RM-4979-EDA
EDA.
G. S.
A p r i l 1966.

Project
Fishman,

E v a l u a t i o n for
D. A. F i t c h e t t .

336
-6 6 -

A n e v a l u a t i o n m o d e l i s d e v e l o p e d to a s s i s t
t h e E c o n o m i c D e v e l o p m e n t A d m i n i s t r a t i o n in
a l l o c a t i n g r e s ources among requests for
f i n a n c i a l a s s i s t a n c e from r e g i o n s in the
Un i t e d Stat e s where high rates of unem­
ployment chronically exist.
The « a j o r
c r i t e r i a for a c c e p t i n g or r e j e c t i n g a
p r o p o s e d p r o j e c t a r e t h e i n c r e a s e in f l o w
o f f a a i l y i n c o m e in t h e a r e a b e c a u s e o f
t h e p r o j e c t , t h e r a t i o o f t h i s i n c o m e in­
c r e a s e t o the c o s t of the p r o j e c t , a n d
t he p r o j e c t ’ i m p a c t on u n e m p l o y m e n t .
s
T i m e s t r e a m s of c o s t s and b e n e f i t s must
be properly discounted.
Once the propos­
als have been evaluated, three preference
o r d e r i n g s can be made:
the first, a c c o r d ­
i n g t o t h e e x p e c t e d i n c r e a s e in f a m i l y i n ­
c o m e at r e s p e c t i v e l e v e l s of c u r r e n t f a m ­
ily income; second, t he benefit/cost, ratio;
and t hird, the n u m b e r of j o b s c r e a t e d a nd
the respective current unemployment rates
of the applicants.
Additional factors
meriting consideration are project inter­
actions, community involvement and re­
s o u r c e fungibility, and the e x p e r i m e n t a ­
t i o n v a l u e of s o m e proj e c t s .
28 pp.

RM-4980-EDA
C r i t e r i a for the L o c a t i o n
of Federal ^pginnal Facilities.
A. H.
P a s c a l , N. E. H a u s n e r .
A p r i l 19 6 6 .
G u i d e l i n e s f or u s e in s e l e c t i n g l o c a t i o n s
for Federal regional facilities.
The
s t udy deals particularly with the in­
c r e a s e s i n s y s t e m c o s t a t t r i b u t a b l e to
e s t a b l i s h i n g a r e g i o n a l f a c i l i t y in a d e s ­
ignated economic redevelopment area rather
t h a n a t t h e m o s t e f f i c i e n t l o c a t i o n in
t e r m s of o f f i c e a d m i n i s t r a t i o n .
As a
c a s e s t u d y , t he c r i t e r i a d e v e l o p e d a r e
a p p l i e d to t he l o c a t i o n p a t t e r n s of the
Small Business Administration.
Fairly
well structured quantitative relationships
s h o u l d be d e v e l o p e d in t h e f o l l o w i n g a r e a s :
c o s t s of f a c i l i t y o p e r a t i o n s a s a f u n c t i o n
of tra v e l and a c c e s s r e q u i r e m e n t s , local
o f f i c e s p ace costs, and local labor costs;
m e a s u r e s of t h e c o n s e q u e n c e s o f i n c r e m e n t s
to th e local e c o n o m i c base as a f u n c t i o n
of local e c onomic s t r u cture; and the e v a l u ­
a t i o n of i m p a c t b e n e f i t s a s a f u n c t i o n of
the p o l i c y - m a k e r ’ objectives.
s
In the ex­
a m p l e c h osen for detai l e d a n a lysis, the
P a c i f i c C o a s t a l Area, t h e S m a l l B u s i n e s s
A d m i n i s t r a t i o n has made a re a s o n a b l e
c h o i c e of field h e a d q u a r t e r s l o c a t i o n on
c o s t - e ffective grounds; regional facilities
s u c h as these, h o w e v e r , c o u l d m a k e a s i g ­
nificant contribution to economic advance
in depressed areas without substantially
a f f e c t i n g agency costs.
84 pp.
Refs.

RH-5268-PR
Air T r a n s p o r t a t i o n in the
1970's:
P r o b l e m s and O p p o r tunities.
T. F . C a r t a i n o .
J a n u a r y 19 6 8 .




An e x a m i n a t i o n o f t h e p r o b l e m s , a n d p o s s i ­
b l e s o l u t i o n s , of c o m m e r c i a l air t r a n s p o r ­
t a t i o n in t h e 1 9 7 0 ' s , w i t h e m p h a s i s o n
s u b s o n i c p a s s e n g e r v e h i c l e s t h a t w i l l be
i n o p e r a t i o n b y 1975.
Major air transpor­
t a t i o n p r o b l e m s in t he 1 9 7 0 ' s w i l l be
c e n t e r e d in a n d a r o u n d t h e t e r m i n a l a r e a s .
A i r p o r t noise and the a d v e r s e r e a c t i o n s of
adjacent communities are already serious.
E c o n o m i c c o m p a r i s o n s of n e w a i r c r a f t t y p e s
for domestic and international transport
a r e m a d e on the b a s i s of a t h e o r e t i c a l
fare, i.e., t he f a r e t h a t an a i r l i n e o p e r ­
a t o r w o u l d h a v e t o c h a r g e to e a r n a g i v e n
r a t e o f r e t u r n on h i s i n v e s t m e n t .
Possible
solutions include estab l i s h m e n t of regional
air c e n t e r s away from m e t r o p o l i t a n areas;
VTOL veh i c l e s for s h o r t - h a u l interc i t y ,
c ity-to-airport, and airport-to - a i r p o r t
t r a n s p o r t ( 50-2 00 m i l e s ) ; a i r b u s s e s f o r
m edium-haul transport (500-2000 m i l e s ) ;
the s u b s o n i c s t r e t c h e d jet a n d j u m b o jet
f o r d o m e s t i c l o n g - h a u l t r a n s p o r t (2500
miles).
The s u b s o n i c s are c o m p e t i t i v e
f o r i n t e r n a t i o n a l l o n g - h a u l t r a n s p o r t up
to 4 0 0 0 miles; t h e j u m b o jet h a s a 6 0 0 0 mile full-load range.
Technological ad­
vances i n c l u d e the s u p e r c r i t i c a l wing;
e c o n o m i c a l m e t h o d s of using ti t a n i u m for
lighter, safer airframes; and improved
safety devices.
38 pp.

RM-5503-HDD
Recommendations for Re­
s e a r c h in S u p p o r t o f F e d e r a l O r b a n P r o ­
grams.
E d i t e d b y I. S. L o w r y .
April
1968.
RAND's recommendations for research re­
l a t e d t o p r o g r a m s of th e D e p a r t m e n t of
H o u s i n g a n d U r b a n D e v e l o p m e n t (HUD).
P o l i c y i s s u e s and r e s e a r c h s t r a t e g i e s a r e
d i s c u s s e d in t h e f o l l o w i n g c o n t e x t s :
(1)
f u n c t i o n s o£ p r o g r a m a n a l y s i s within HOD;
(2) m e t h o d s o f i m p r o v i n g t h e q u a l i t y o f
u r b a n p l a n n i n g ; (3) i n c e n t i v e s f o r i n t e r ­
g o v e r n m e n t a l c o o p e r a t i o n ; (4) t h e M o d e l
C i t i e s p r o g r a m ; (5) r a c e r e l a t i o n s i n
f e d eral h ousing and d e v e l o p m e n t p r o grams;
(6) h o u s i n g p r e f e r e n c e s a n d h o u s i n g w e l ­
f a r e ; a n d (7) i n s t i t u t i o n a l b a r r i e r s t o
reduced housing costs.
1 1 2 pp.

R J1-5510 - R C
T h e E c o n o m i c s of H o u s i n g
Segregation.
A. H- P a s c a l .
November
1967.
An e x a m i n a t i o n o f t h e a v a i l a b l e s t a t i s t i c s
t o d e t e r m i n e t h e d e g r e e to w h i c h s o c i o ­
e c o n o m i c factors, rather than racial prej­
udice, d e t e rmine o bserved n o n white r e s i ­
d e n t i a l s e g r a t i o n in t h e C h i c a g o and D e ­
t roit M e t r o p o l i t a n Areas.
Multiple re­
g r e s s i o n t e c h n i q u e s a r e u sed to t e s t a
s o c i o e c o n o m i c model, and i n t e n s i v e e x a m i ­
nation of the r e s u l t s r e v eals that o nly
a f r a c t i o n of o b s e r v e d s e g r e g a t i o n c a n be

337
-67-

■ e x p l a i n e d ” by s o c i o e c o n o m i c f a c t o r s .
Ad­
d i t i o n a l t e s t s p r o v i d e e v i d e n c e of p r e j u ­
d i c e in t h e w h i t e c o m m u n i t y - - e i t h e r a c t u a l
or a n t i c i p a t e d — a s tble m a j o r c o n s t r a i n i n g
f o r c e in t h e " u n e x p l a i n e d ” s e g r e g a t i o n .
T h e i m p l i c a t i o n i s t h a t e f f o r t s to i m p r o v e
n o n w h i t e s o c i o e c o n o m i c c o n d i t i o n s m u s t be
c o n t i n u e d and that specific a n t i s e g r e g a ­
t ion p r o g r a m s ha v e a r ole to play2 3 9 pp,
Bibliog.

RM-5603-RC
C i t i e s in T r o u b l e :
An
A ge nd a for U r b a n R e s e a r c h .
E d i t e d by
A. H. P a s c a l ; S. G e n e n s X y , W. A. J o h n ­
s o n , D. F. L o v e d a y , I. S. L o w r y , R.
R o s e n k r a n z , D. tfeiler, C. T. W h i t e h e a d .
A u g u s t 1968.
An e x a m i n a t i o n of the p r o b l e m s of the
c i ties and a proposed agenda for research
in u r b a n h o u s i n g , e m p l o y m e n t , w e l f a r e ,
p u b l i c order, and health services.
This
s t u d y is t h e r e s u l t o f c o n t r i b u t i o n s p r e ­
p a r e d by m e m b e r s o f t h e R A N D s t a f f f o l l o w ­
ing a W o r k s h o p on Urban Probl e m s finan c e d
by the Ford Foundation and The RAND Cor­
poration.
L i t t l e s y s t e m a t i c d a t a on
A m e r i c a n c i t i e s exist, a nd there is an
i n a d e q u a t e c a t a l o g c\ p o l i c y a l t e r n a t i v e s
a nd of t h e c o n s e q u e n c e s that may r e s u l t
f r o m t h e c h o i c e of p a r t i c u l a r a i t e r n a t i v e s .
T h e u n s o l v e d p r o b l e m s of t h e c i t i e s a r e
n o t l i k e l y to r e s p o n d to s u p e r f i c i a l a t ­
tacks with limited resources.
Solid ana­
l y t i c a l w o r k i s a p r e r e q u i s i t e to s u c c e s s ­
ful programs.
In t h e e f f o r t t o s o l v e t h e
p r o b l e m s o f t he c i t i e s , u n i v e r s i t i e s a n d
private research organizations have a role
t o p l a y in w o r k t h a t c u t s a c r o s s d i s c i ­
p l i n a r y l i n e s — g a t h e r i n g d a t a in t h e f i e l d
a s w e l l a s in t h e l i b r a r y , a n d m a i n t a i n i n g
a n d r e n e w i n g an o p e n n e s s to ideas.
Even
t h e most e f f e c t i v e r e s e a r c h will not be
e n o u g h t o s o l v e t h e p r o b l e m s o f th e c i t i e s ,
b u t , w i t h o u t it, t h o s e p r o b l e m s w i l l n o t
b e r e s o l v e d e v e n in p a r t .
166 pp.

R H - 5 6 3 1 - DOT
Putting the Analysis and
Evaluation of T raffic Safety Measures
into Perspective.
H. V o h l .
April
1968.
An a p p r a i s a l o f t h e b e n e f i t s a n d c o s t s of
t r a f f i c s a f e t y m e a s u r e s , b o t h in a g g r e g a ­
tive and d i f f e r e n t i a l terms.
Operation­
a l l y , the t r a f f i c s a f e t y p r o b l e m is to
d e t e r m i n e the a g g r e g a t e l e v e l s of benefit
and cost a s s o c i a t e d with t he adopt i o n of
s a f e t y meas u r e s and to determine who will
b e n e f i t f r o m t h e s e m e a s u r e s and how much
a n d who w i l l pa y f or t h e m a n d h ow much.
An e x a m i n a t i o n of three s a f e t y m e a s u r e s —
seat belts, s i d e-marker lights, and con­
t r o l s o n d r i n k i n g d r i v e r s — s h o w s t h a t (1)
s a f e t y p e r se s h o u l d not b e v i e w e d in i s o ­
l a t i o n ; (2) s o c i e t y s h o u l d n o t r e g a r d




s a f e t y as a n e c e s s a r y g o o d r e g a r d l e s s of
a l l e l s e ; (3) g o v e r n m e n t a l i n t e r v e n t i o n
o r c o n t r o l is n o t a l w a y s n e c e s s a r y a n d in
s o m e c a s e s may ten d to u n d e r m i n e the p u b ­
l i c w e l f a r e ; (4) t h e m e r e l a c k o f s a f e t y
p r o g r e s s on the p a r t of the a u t o m o t i v e
i n d u s t r y d o e s not i n d i c a t e a lack of p r o p ­
e r m o t i v e s ; (5) e q u i t y i s s u e s s u r r o u n d t h e
traffic safety problem.
51 p p .
(See a l s o
R H - 5 6 3 2 - D O T , R H - 5 6 3 3 - D O T , R H - 5 6 3 & - D O T , Rrt5 6 3 5 - D O T , R M - 5 6 3 6 - D O T , R M - 5 6 3 7 - DOT.)
(BG)

Rfl-5632-DOT
A Conceptual Framework
for Evaluating Tra f f i c Safety System
Measures.
M . Wohl.
A p r i l 1968.
A d e s c r i p t i o n of a c o n c e p t u a l f r a m e w o r k
for evaluating traffic safety system
m e a s u r e s a n d a d i s c u s s i o n of t h e r e s e a r c h
r e q u i r e d to m a k e the s y s t e m a n a l y s i s and
evaluation framework operational.
An
e v a l u a t i o n of a t r a f f i c s a f e t y a c t i o n r e ­
q u i r e s t h a t a v a l u e be p l a c e d on t he a d ­
verse, beneficial, present and future
e f f e c t s of the action.
A benefit-cost
a n a l y s i s r e v e a l s that the most e c o n o m i c ­
a l l y w o r t h w h i l e p l a n w i l l be t h e o n e th a t
has the hig h e s t n o n n e gative net present
value.
Six r e s e a r c h c a t e g o r i e s have been
e s t a b l i s h e d to p r o v i d e a f o r m a t for a n a ­
l y s i n g a m i e v a l u a t i n g s a f e t y actior.c:
accident prediction; criticality predic­
tion; s e v e r i t y p r e d i c t i o n ; m a r k e t beh a v i o r ;
c o s t a n d r e s o u r c e c o m m i t m e n t p r e d i c t i o n and
valuation; and trav e l forecasting.
Al­
though these c a t egories are not mutually
e x c l u s i v e , they c o n f o r m to t h e c u r r e n t
s t r a t i f i c a t i o n s of the t r a f f i c s a f e t y s y s ­
tem a nd p r o v i d e a m e c h a n i s m for j u d g i n g
worth, p r i o r i t y , and t i m e - s e q u e n c i n g of
the research.
3 8 pp.
( See a l s o R M - 5 6 3 1 DOT, R M - 5 6 3 3-DOT, R M - 5 6 3 4 - D O T , R M - 5 6 3 5 D O T , R M - 5 6 3 6 - D O T , R H - 5 6 3 7 - D O T .)
(LK)

R M - 5 6 3 3 - DOT
M o d e l i n g the T r a f f i c - S a f e ty S y s t e m .
B. F. G o e l l e r .
A p r i l 1968.
A m o d e l for a n a l y z i n g t r a f f i c a c c i d e n t s
that r e l a t e s u n s a f e d r i v i n g to o p e r a t i o n ­
al and e n v i r o n m e n t a l variables, the pro­
duc t i o n of i n j u r i e s and pro p e r t y damage,
and the saf e t y m e a s u r e s that might r educe
the i n c i d e n c e a n d s e v e r i t y o f a c c i d e n t s .
An a c c i d e n t is c o n c e p t u a l i z e d as having
three stages--pre-accident, intra-acci­
dent, and p o s t - a c c i d e n t — and a s p a s s i n g
through a chain of phases, all physically
o b s e rvable, with c l e a r c u t outc o m e s .
Em­
p h a s i s is on th e p r e - a c c i d e n t s t a g e , w h i c h
c o n s i s t s of four phases:
predisposition,
initiation, juxtaposition (confrontation
with a h a z a r d ) , and evasion.
The i n t r a ­
accident stage c o n s i s t s of the first-col­
l i s i o n p h a s e ( i m p a c t on v e h i c l e ) an d s e c ­
o n d - c o l l i s i o n p h a s e (impact on p a s s e n g e r s ) .
For the p e r s o n s inv o l v e d , the p o s t - a c c i ­

338
-68-

d e n t stage? r e s u l t s in i n i t i a l t r e a t m e n t ,
e m e r g e n c y transport, and primary t r eat­
ment.
75 pp.
Refs.
( S e e a l s o R M - 5 6 31DOT, Rtt-5632-DOT, R M - 5 6 3 4 - D 0 T , R M - 5 6 3 5 DOT, R H - 5 6 3 6 - D 0 T , Rfl-5637-DOT.)
(MW)

RM-5634-D0T
Vehicle Safety:
Why the
M a r k e t D i d N o t E n c o u r a g e I t a n d H o w It
flight Be H a d e T o D o So.
A. C a r l i n .
A p r i l 1968.
A n a n a l y s i s of t h e r e a s o n s w h y t h e m a r k e t
m e c h a n i s m h a s no t p r o v e d e f f e c t i v e in p r o ­
mot i n g veh i c l e safety and of pos s i b l e ways
t hat m a r k e t f o r c e s m i g h t be u s e d to c r e a t e
a g r e a t e r d e m a n d for s a f e t y in the future.
Because consumers have shown little inter­
e s t in v e h i c l e s a f e t y f e a t u r e s a n d b e c a u s e
m a n u f a c t u r e r s have found that safety
d o e s n ’ sell, the m a r k e t h a s not o p e r a t e d
t
to r a i s e s a f e t y s t a n d a r d s .
This situation
m i g h t b e c h a n g e d (1) b y i n c r e a s i n g t h e p u b ­
l i c ' s a b i l i t y to d i s t i n g u i s h t h e r e l a t i v e
s a f e t y o f d i f f e r e n t m o d e l s o f c a r s by e i ­
t h e r a h i e r a r c h y of e a s i l y u n d e r s t o o d F e d ­
e r a l v e h i c l e s a f e t y s t a n d a r d s o r by d i r e c t
c o m p a r i s o n s o r r a n k i n g of r e l a t i v e v e h i c l e
s a f e t y o r (2) by c r e a t i n g g r e a t e r i n c e n ­
t i v e s f o r t h e p u b l i c to d e m a n d s a f e r c a r s
or to i n s t a l l an d use s a f e t y e q u i p m e n t .
2 8 p p.
(See a l s o R K - 5 6 3 1 - D O T , R W - 5 6 3 2 D O T , R M - 5 63 3 - D O T , R H - 5 6 3 5 - D O T , Rfl-5636DOT, R M - 5 6 3 7 - D O T . )
(RG)

RM-5635-DOT
Alcohol and T raffic Acci­
dents.
H. H. M i t c h e l l .
A p r i l 196 8 .
A c o l l e c t i o n of s t a t i s t i c s from s elected
s t u d i e s sho w i n g the dr i n k i n g dr i v e r ' s in­
v o l v e m e n t in t r a f f i c a c c i d e n t s , t h e r e l a ­
tio n s h i p between blood alcohol levels and
i m p a i r m e n t of d r i v i n g a b i l i t y , a n d the
s i g n i f i c a n c e o f d r i n k i n g p a t t e r n s in a l ­
c o h o l -implicated traffic accidents.
Al­
c o h o l i s s h o w n to b e a s i g n i f i c a n t f a c t o r
i n t r a f f i c a cc idents, e s p e c i a l l y th o se in­
v o l v i n g s e r i o u s i n j u r y and death.
Impair­
ment of d r i v i n g a b i l i t y is d e m o n s t r a t e d
a t b l o o d l e v e l s of a l c o h c l b e l o w t h e l e g a l
d e f i n i t i o n of i n t o x i c a t i o n , a n d t h e r i s k
o f h a v i n g a n a c c i d e n t is s h o w n to i n c r e a s e
a s b l o o d a l c o h o l c o n c e n t r a t i o n s rise.
A b o u t 15 p e r c e n t of a l l a c c i d e n t s i n v o l v e
a d r i v e r w i t h 50 m g m p e r c e n t b l o o d a l c o ­
h o l c o n c e n t r a t i o n or higher.
Other stud­
i e s s h o w t h a t a l c o h o l is p r o b a b l y a c a u s a l
f a c t o r i n 50 p e r c e n t of t h e s i n g l e v e h i c l e
fatalities.
C o n trol m e a s u r e s need further
s t u d y to p r o v i d e i n f o r m a t i o n l e a d i n g to
■ore e f f e c t i v e h a n d l i n g of t h e d r u n k d r i v ­
ing problem.
37 pp.
(Se e a l s o R . 1 -5631D O T , R B - 5 6 3 2 - D O T , R M - 5 6 3 3 - P O T , Rtt-5634DOT, R M - 5 6 3 6 - D 0 T , R M - 5 6 3 7 - D O T . )
(BG)




RM-5636-DnT
M e d i c a l P r o b l e m s and Phys­
i cal F i t n e s s a s R e l a t e d to O c c u r r e n c e
of T r a f f i c A c c i d e n t s .
H. H. M i t c h e l l .
A p r i l 1968.
A s u r v e y of the l i t e r a t u r e on m e d i c a l p r o b ­
l em s and p h y s i c a l f i t n e s s as they r e l a t e
to the o c c u r r e n c e of t r a f f i c a c c i d e n t s .
The publ i s h e d data do not p r o vide s u f f i ­
c i e n t e v i d e n c e f o r a n e s t i m a t e to b e m a d e
of the c o n t r i b u t i o n of v a r i o u s m e d i c a l
c o n d i t i o n s to the a c c i d e n t r a te.
There
are also insjfficient quantitative studies
t o f o r m a r a t i o n a l b a s i s for a c t i o n by
r e g u l a t o r y a u t h o r i t y in c h a r g e of l i c e n ­
sure for driving.
If d o n e a t a l l , t h e c u r ­
r e n t s c r e e n i n g of d r i v e r s b e f o r e l i c e n s u r e
i s a p p a r e n t l y b a s e d on q u a l i t a t i v e m e d i c a l
judgment.
It is s u g gested that c o n t r o l l e d
s t u d i e s be m a d e to e v a l u a t e the c o n t r i b u ­
t i o n t o t h e a c c i d e n t p r o b l e m of t h e v a r i ­
o u s m e d i c a l c o n d i t i o n s tha t m i g h t be s i g ­
nificant, for example, epilepsy, diabetes,
cardiac disease.
These studies should de­
t e r m i n e t h e e f f e c t on t h e a c c i d e n t r a t e o f
removal of specified c a t e gories of d i s ­
eased individuals.
Particular attention
s h o u l d be paid to the n u m b e r of l i c e n s e s
t h a t w o u l d h a v e to be d e n i e d for e a c h
category studied.
30 pp.
Refs.
(See
a l s o R M - 5 6 3 1 - D O T , R;i-56 3 2 - D O T , R M - 5 6 3 3 - D O ' T ’
,
RT— 563U-DOT, RM-5635-DOT, RM-5537-DOT.)
(LK)

R M - 5 6 3 7 - D O ,'
T
Emergency Medical Care
and T r a ffic Fatalities.
H. R. M i t c h e l l .
A p r i l 1968.
A n e x a m i n a t i o n o f U .S. m i l i t a r y e m e r g e n c y
m e d i c a l c a r e in o r d e r t o p r o v i d e a b a s i s
for d e t e r mining how improved civilian
e m e r g e n c y medical care might affect traffic-accident fatalities.
Since data are
l a c k i n g o n e m e r g e n c y c a r e of c i v i l i a n
traumatic injuries, military records were
s t u d i e d fo r i n f o r m a t i o n on the r e s u l t s to
be e x p e c t e d for v a r i o u s t y p e s of t r a u m a
in r e l a t i o n to t h e s k i l l a n d r e s o u r c e s
a p p l i e d to t h e i r c a r e .
E x a m i n a t i o n of
traffic casualty doscriptions provided a
s t a t i s t i c a l p i c t u r e of the t y p e s of i n j u r ­
i e s tha t kill a c c i d e n t victims.
By j u x t a ­
posing the military ex p e r i e n c e and t r a f ­
fic f a t a l i t y d e s c r i p t i o n s , s o m e i n s i g h t
w a s g a i n e d i n t o the p o t e n t i a l for l o w e r i n g
t r a f f i c - c a s e f a t a l i t y r a t e s in t e r m s o f
resources.
A l t h o u g h i m p r o v i n g the cas e
f a t a l i t y r a t e s will be d i f f i c u l t , a signal
d e v i c e c o u l d b e d e v i s e d to l o c a t e t h e a c c i ­
d e n t , f o l l o w e d by h e l i c o p t e r o r a m b u l a n c e
d i s p a t c h of t r a i n e d p e r s o n n e l to t h e s c e n e
to g i v e first aid to t h o s e w h o now d ie b e ­
c a u s e of h e m o r r h a g e , r e s p i r a t o r y d i f f i c u l ­
ty , e a r l y s h o c k , e t c .
A triage system
(for s t o r i n g an d c l a s s i f y i n g th e woun d e d )
c o u l d t h e n be us e d to s e n d the i n j u r e d to
s pecial trauma centers.
37 pp.
Refs.
(Se e a l s o R M - 5 6 3 1 - D O T , R M - 5 6 3 2 - D O T , R H -

339
-69-

5 6 3 3 - D O T , R H - 5 6 34— D O T , R H - 5 6 3 5 - D O T ,
5 6 3 6 “ OT.)
D
(BG)

BM -

BH-5673-NYC
A Guide to Government
A c t i v i t i e s in N ew Y o r k C i t y ' s H o u s i n g
Markets.
D. D r e y f u s s , J. H e n d r i c k s o n .
H o v e m b e r 1968.
A compr e h e n s i v e survey of government a c ­
t i v i t i e s in N e w Y o r k C i t y ' s h o u s i n g m a r ­
kets.
T h e s tu d y c o v e r s 24 h o u s i n g pro­
g r a m s f u n d e d a n d a d m i n i s t e r e d by C i t y ,
State, and Federal governments, including
land assembly and clearance, public owner­
s h i p and opera t i o n of h o using units, v a r ­
i o u s f o r m s of a i d to p r i v a t e o w n e r s a nd
developers, direct financial assistance
t o c o n s u m e r s of h o u s i n g , r e g u l a t i o n of
r e n t s , a n d e n f o r c e m e n t of c o n s t r u c t i o n
and m a i n t e n a n c e standards.
S o u r c e s of
in f o r m a t i o n were reports published by
HDA and i t s p r e d e c e s s o r agencies, the
New York City Housing Auth o r i t y , the
City Planning Commission, and the Bureau
of the Budget; u n p u b l i s h e d data fr o m the
f i l e s of t h e s e a g e n c i e s ; e x p e n d i t u r e
r e c o r d s from the O f f i c e of t h e C i t y Com t r o l l e r a n d f r o m H D A ’ B u r e a u of A u d i t
s
a nd F i n a n c e ; r e p o r t s a n d r e c o r d s of the
N e w Y o r k S t a t e D i v i s i o n of H o u s i n g a n d
C o m m u n i t y Renewal and of the Federal
Housing Administration.
Annual outputs
and expenditures for each program are
c o m p i l e d for the p e riod 1963-1967.
These
d a t a are u sed to c o m p i l e a b a s e c a s e of
o u t p u t s and e x p e n d i t u r e s for fiscal 19671 9 6 8 as a b e n c h m a r k f o r p r o g r a m b u d g e t i n g
f or f u t u r e years.
1 3 2 pp.
(HJP)

BM-5726— NYC
T h e S e r v i c e F a c i l i t i e s of
t h e B u r e a u of Fire C o m m u n i c a t i o n s :
A
Cost An a l y s i s of a P r o p o s e d C o n s o l i d a ­
tion.
G. S. L e v e n s o n , A. J. T e n z e r .
S e p t e m b e r 1 968.
A n a n a l y s i s of a p r o p o s e d c o n s o l i d a t i o n o f
f a c i l i t i e s w i t h i n t h e B u r e a u of F i r e C o m ­
m u n i c a t i o n s of the C i t y of N ew Y o r k in
t e r m s of the c o s t b e n e f i t s t h a t m i g h t be
o b t a i n e d by c o n s o l i d a t i n g t h e 11 f a c i l i t i e s
in Brooklyn, Bronx, Manhattan, and Queens
that are now used for engineering, i n s t a l l a ­
tion, m a i n t e n a n c e , a nd r e p a i r of the F ire
D e p a r t m e n t ' s fire alarm s y stem and radio
equipment.
Consolidation of facilities
offers these benefits:
(1) c l o s e r s u p e r ­
v i s i o n by r e d u c i n g t h e a r e a t o b e c o n ­
t r o l l e d ; (2) m o r e f l e x i b l e w o r k s c h e d u l i n g
b e c a u s e o f c e n t r a l i z e d m a n a g e m e n t of r e ­
s o u r c e s ; (3) t h e p o s s i b i l i t y o f a t r a i n i n g
p r o g r a m f o r n e w e m p l o y e e s at the c e n t r a l
l o c a t i o n ; (4) a m o r e e f f i c i e n t u s e o f r e ­
s o u r c e s ; (5) a g r e a t e r o p p o r t u n i t y f o r
e c o n o m y in p r o c u r e m e n t a n d s t o r a g e ; a n d (6)
t he h i g h e r m o r a l e a m o n g p e r s o n n e l that mod­
ern facilities induce.
To tran s l a t e these




b e n e f i t s into quanti t a t i v e terms, co s t s
w e r e d i v i d e d in t o the c a t e g o r i e s of i n v e s t ­
me n t a n d o p e r a t i n g c o s t s o v e r a p e r i o d of
5 years, and a base case e s t a b l i s h e d
a g a i n s t w h ich t he c o s t s of s i x a l t e r n a t i v e ^
were compared.
T h e a n a l y s i s s h o w s that
e f f i c i e n c y w o u l d n e e d to be i n c r e a s e d by
o n l y 6 p e r c e n t f o r the 5 - y e a r c o s t s of
c o n s o l i d a t i o n to e g u a l t h e 5 - y e a r c o s t s
of t h e p r e s e n t o p e r a t i o n .
If efficiency
c o u l d b e i n c r e a s e d b y 15 p e r c e n t t h r o u g h
c o n s o l i d a t i o n , a s a v i n g s of $ 2 0 0 , 0 0 0 per
year would result.
40 pp.
(LK)

RM-5739-0E0
An A n a l y s i s of P o v e r t y :
A Suggested Methodology.
J. J. M c C a l l .
O c t o b e r 1968.
A d e s c r i p t i o n of two m o d e l s of the i n c i ­
dence, persistence, and con t r o l of p o v e r ­
ty.
T h e f i r s t is b a s i c a l l y p r o b a b i l i s t i c
a n d u s e s the t h e o r y of M a r k o v p r o c e s s e s
to d e s c r i b e m o v e m e n t s i n t o a n d o u t o f
poverty.
The s e c o n d i s n o r m a t i v e and
e v a l u a t e s a l t e r n a t i v e p o l i c i e s for a l l e v i ­
a t ing poverty.
The d e s c r i p t i v e model per­
mits several important hypotheses about
p o v e r t y to be i n v e s t i g a t e d :
(1)
the
a d e q u a c y o f a M a r k o v i a n m o d a l in d e s c r i b ­
i n g i n c o m e m o b i l i t y ; (2)
the differences
of the same age and b e t w e e n N e g r o e s and
C a u c a s i a n s o f t h e s a m e a g e ; (3)
the e f f e c t
o f t h e b u s i n e s s c y c l e on i n c o m e m o b i l i t y
a n d i t s d i f f e r e n t i a l e f f e c t on N e g r o e s
and Caucasians.
T h e o b j e c t i v e of the
n o r m a t i v e m o d e l i s to c h o o s e a c o m b i n a t i o n
of c o n t r o l v a r i a b l e s t h a t y i e l d s the m ost
desirable transition matrix.
Tvo p olicy
va r i a b l e s are considered:
expenditures
on t r a i n i n g a n d on i n c o m e m a i n t e n a n e e .
With a fixed budget for poverty a l l e v i ­
a t i o n , t h e o b j e c t i v e is to a l l o c a t e f u n d s
b e t w e e n t h e t w o v a r i a b l e s so a s t o m i n i ­
m i z e t h e n u m b e r o f p e o p l e in p o v e r t y .
Several other criteria are also investi­
gated, and methods for a c h i eving optimal
a l l o c a t i o n s are o u t lined.
3 5 pp.
Refs.
(See a l s o R M - 5 7 4 1 - O E O . )
(MJP)

RM-57UO-OEO
E m p l o y e r s and M a n p o w e r
T r aining Programs:
Data C o l l e c t i o n
and Analysis.
D. H. G r e e n b e r g .
Octo­
b e r 1968.
An i n v e s t i g a t i o n o f t h e a d v a n t a g e s a nd
d i s a d v a n t a g e s of c o l l e c t i n g d a t a on g r a d ­
uates of m a n p o w e r train i n g p r o g r a m s from
the firms that e m p l o y them, and an e v a l ­
u a t i o n of f o u r l o c a l t r a i n i n g p r o g r a m s :
on-the-job training, Opportunities Indus­
t r i a l i z a t i o n C e n t e r , S o u t h C e n t r a l I.os
Angeles Youth Training and Employment
Project, and East Los A n g e l e s You t h T r a i n ­
ing and E m p l o y m e n t Project.
The a nalysis
doe s not show a c l e a r - c u t a d v a n t a g e for

340
-70-

any one program.
If s u c c e s s is m e a s u r e d
i n t e r m s of w a g e s , h o w e v e r , t r a i n e e s a s ­
s o c i a t e d w i t h on-*-the- j o b t r a i n i n g p r o g r a m s
ha v e boon relatively more s uccessful.
The
e a p l o y o r a p p r o a c h to f o l l o w - u p on g r a d u ­
a t e s of m a n p o w e r t r a i n i n g p r o g r a m s y i e l d s
i n e x p e n s i v e b u t r e l a t i v e l y l i m i t e d lata.
F u n d a m e n t a l p r o b l e m s w e r e e n c o u n t e r e d in
d e v e l o p i n g m e a n i n g f u l m e a s u r e s of s uc c e s s
and in c o p i n g wi t h c o l l i n e a r i t y a m o n g s ets
of i n d e p e n d e n t v a r i a b l e s .
These problems
and a p p r o a c h e s that c a n c o n t r i b u t e to
their solution are discussed.
37 pp.
(LK)

RM-5741-OFO
M a n p o w e r P r o g r a m s as
Markov Chains.
E. P. D u r b i n .
October
1 96 8.
A d i s c u s s i o n o f how m a n p o w e r t r a i n i n g p r o ­
g r a m s c a n be d e s c r i b e d a s M a r k o v p r o c e s s e s
a n d o f t h e u t i l i t y of s u c h a c o n c e p t u a l
dcscrijition.
A l t h o u g h p r o g r a m s may hav e
the s a m e name and o r g a n i z a t i o n a l s t r u c t u r e
t h e y m a y be v e r y d i f f e r e n t in o p e r a t i o n
and e f f e c t i v e n e s s .
Markov chains provide
a s i m p l e # s a t i s f a c t o r y way of d e s c r i b i n g
differences between programs.
In d e s c r i b ­
i n g t h e d y n a m i c s of a t r a i n i n g p r o g r a m b y a
M a r k o v ch a i n , the p r o g r a m is v i e w e d as a
s e t o f t r a n s i t i o n s f r o m o n e s t a t e to
a n o t her.
Programs t y pically consist of a
f i n i t e n u m b e r of p r o g r e s s i o n l e v e l s a n d
o u t c o m e s that can serve as the state d e ­
scriptors:
(1) n o s e r v i c e , (2) i n t a k e ,
(.3) c o u n s e l i n g o n l y , (4) i n - t r a i n i n g , a n d
(5) e m p l o y m e n t .
While movement of people
from one state to a n o t h e r o ccurs c o n t i n ­
u a l l y , it i s p o s s i b l e t o r e v i e w a p r o g r a m
o n l y p e r i o d i c a l l y (sa y o n c e e a c h m o n t h )
and d e t e r m i n e for each s t a t e the p r o p o r ­
t i o n of p e o p l e who ha v e m o v e d to a n o t h e r
state.
T h e mov e m e n t r a t e s m a y d i f f e r
g r e a t l y for d i f f e r e n t p r o g r a m s e v e n though
r e s o u r c e and p e r s o n n e l a l l o c a t i o n s are
similar.
By c o m p u t i n g t h e n u m e r i c a l t r a n ­
s i t i o n r a t e s b e t w e e n c a t e g o r i e s in p r o ­
grams, significant interprogram differ­
e n c e s and s i m i l a r i t i e s b e c o m e a p p a r e n t and
t h e r e a s o n s fo r t h e m c a n be f u r t h e r e x ­
plored.
17 pp.
Refs.
(See a l s o R M - 5 7 3 9 OEO.)
(MW)

SM-57U3-OEO
Evaluating Federal Man­
power Programs:
N o t e s and O b s e r v a ­
tions.
T. K. G l e n n a n , Jr .
September

1 69.
9

A d i s c u s s i o n o f t h e u s e o f e v a l u a t i o n s of
m a n p o w e r t r a i n i n g p r o g r a m s b y 0 E 0 in p l a n ­
ning and policymaking.
T h e e x p e r i e n c e of
past and present manpower programs should
b e a v a l u a b l e s o u r c e of d a t a to g u i d e t he
d e v e l o p m e n t and p l a n n i n g of f u t u r e p r o ­
grams.
T h e m a j o r p r o b l e m to be o v e r c o m e
in a n e v a l u a t i o n of p r o g r a m i m p a c t is




finding a reference or c o n t r o l group with
w h i c h t o c o m p a r e t h e w o r k e x p e r i e n c e s of
the p r o gram enrollees.
E v e n if s u c h a
g r o u p is found, the r e s u l t s of e v a l u a ­
t i o n s c a n n o t b e c o m p a r e d b e c a u s e of i n consistent analytical assumptions.
Sug­
g e s t e d m e a s u r e s for i m p r o v i n g the r e l e ­
vance and u s efulness of e v a l u a t i o n s are
(1) t o u s e l o n g i t u d i n a l s t u d y d e s i g n s ,
(2) t o m a k e n e w p r o g r a m s mo;
experimen­
t a l , (3) t o e s t a b l i s h a n a l y t i c c o n v e n ­
tions for conducting b e nefit-cost studies,
(4) t o i m p r o v e i n f o r m a t i o n s y s t e m s a t t h e
l o c a l l e v e l , a n d (5) t o i n c r e a s e c o o p e r a ­
tion between e v a l u a t o r s and polic y m a k e r s .
5 5 pp.
Bibliog.
(CD)

RM-5745-OEO
E c o n o m i c s of I n f o r m a t i o n
and Job Search.
J. J. M c C a l l .
Novem­
b e r 1968.
T w o m o d e l s o f an e m p l o y e e ’ s e a r c h f o r
s
work, using some r e s u l t s from the t h e o r y
of o p t i m a l s t o p p i n g r u l e s .
Included are
an o p t i m a l s e a r c h p o l i c y for a s i m p l e
m o d e l of t h e s e a r c h p r o c e s s , a m o r e g e n e r a l
m o d e l of u n e m p l o y m e n t (which c o n s i d e r s the
a n t i c i p a t e d p e r i o d of e m p l o y m e n t as we l l
a s the wa g e r a t e as f a c t o r s in the d e c i ­
s i o n m a k i n g p r o c e s s ) , a n d an a d a p t i v e s e a r c h
p o l i c y ( w h i c h r e s u l t s f r o m r e v i s i o n s i n the
s e a r c h e r ' s i m p e r f e c t k n o w l e d g e of h i s w a g e
rate distribution). The distinction be­
tween hardcore and f r i c tional u n e m p l o y m e n t
a nd t h e e f f e c t s of v a r i o u s p o l i c i e s to r e ­
duce unemployment are interpreted within
t he f r a m e w o r k o f t h e s i m p l e m o d e l .
It is
s h o w n t h a t a m i n i m u m w a g e law has no e f f e c t
on the f r i c t i o n a l l y u n e m p l o y e d .
30 p p .
Refs.
(CC)

RM-5746-OEO
Appraising Selected Man­
p o w e r T r a i n i n g P r o g r a m s in the Los
A n g e l e s Area.
L. P. H o l l i d a y .
April
1969.
A s u m m a r y of the p r i n c i p a l t h e o r e t i c a l
and e m p i r i c a l f i n d i n g s of R a n d s t u d i e s
f o r t h e O f f i c e o f E c o n o m i c O p p o r t u n i t y on
m a n p o w e r p r o g r a m s in t h e L o s A n g e l e s a r e a
with s u g g e s t i o n s a nd r e c o m m e n d a t i o n s for
the d e s i g n of f u t u r e m a n p o w e r p r o g r a m s .
T he e m p h a s i s is on the p r o b l e m s of d e ­
vising a m e thodology for e v a l u a t i n g man­
power programs.
Future evaluation ef­
f o r t s s h o u l d s e e k f i n d i n g s r e l a t e d to
program d e c i s i o n s and should d e v elop new
methodologies, data systems, and criteria
for future e v a l u a t i o n of a l t e r n a t i v e s .
O n e of t h e f i v e d a t a s y s t e m s e x a m i n e d ,
t h e " E x t e n s i o n Zero*' s y s t e m , a p p e a r s t o
have potential for supporting local d e ­
c i s i o n m a k i n g a n d , if w i d e l y u s e d , n a t i o n ­
al e v a l u a t i v e analysis.
Some of the r e c ­
o m m e n d a t i o n s a r e to c o n d u c t a l o n g i t u d i ­
n a l s t u d y , t o seek- l o w - c o s t s o u r c e s o f

341
-71-

f o l l o w - u p d a t a for e v a l u a t i o n , t o c o n ­
sider c o m p u t e r - b a s e d inf o r m a t i o n systems,
t o f o c u s j o b d e v e l o p m e n t on p r o m i s i n g
firms, to d evelop stan d a r d s for costb e n e f i t s t u d i e s , and to e x a m i n e youth
p r o g r a m goals.
In a d d i t i o n , t h e s t u d y
suggests two demonst r a t i o n projects:
a
computer-based, rea c t i v e data system sim­
i l a r t o ' E x t e n s i o n Z e r o " an d an e x p e r i ­
’
mental manpower project using the ex p e r i ­
e n c e g a i n e d to d a t e .
4 1 pp.
(Se e
RM-57 39-OEO, RM-574 0 - O E O , RH-5741-OEO,
RM-5745-OEO.)
(MJP)

RH-5815-PA
Alternative Development
S t r a t e g i e s for Air T r a n s p o r t a t i o n in
the New York Region, 1970-1980.
H. S.
C a m p b e l l , A. C a r l i n , S. L. K a t t e n ,
T. F. K i r k w o o d , D. M. L a n d i , R. E.
P a r k , L. R o e n n a u , A. J. R o l f e .
August
1969.
A n o v e r v i e w of s o m e p o s s i b l e a v e n u e s o f
d e v e l o p m e n t for New Y o r k ’ a i r t r a n s p o r t a ­
s
t i o n s y s t e m from now u n t i l 1980.
Three
w a y s of a d d i n g to the s y s t e m ’ c a p a c i t y
s
are investigated:
(1) c o n t i n u i n g t o o p e r ­
a t e m a i n l y f r o m t he p r e s e n t t h r e e a i r p o r t
s i t e s ; (2) d e v e l o p i n g n e w c a p a c i t y f o r t h e
short- and medium-leng t h - o f - t r i p market;
a n d (3) c o n s t r u c t i n g a f o u r t h m a j o r a i r ­
p o r t 40 o r 50 m i l e s f r o m M a n h a t t a n .
The
t h r e e a l t e r n a t i v e s a r e c o m p a r e d in terras
of major investment outlays, time phasing
of capa c i t y additions, and vuln e r a b i l i t y
to for e c a s t errors.
The analysis indi­
c a t e s that e x p a n s i o n in the n e x t s e v e r a l
y e a r s w ill be l i m i t e d to the t y p e e n v i ­
s i o n e d by t h e V / S T O L s y s t e m , e . g . , c r e a ­
t i o n of a m a j o r S T O L p o r t n e a r m i d - M a n ­
hattan.
If a p r o g r a m o f p e r i p h e r a l a nd
V/STOT. a i r p o r t s c a n b e d e v e l o p e d t o s e r v e
a s i g n i f i c a n t p o r t i o n o f a i r t r a v e l in
t h e area, t h e ne e d for a f o u r t h a i r p o r t
may be d e l a y e d .
H o w e v e r , i t m a y be w i s e
to a c q u i r e o w n e r s h i p or c o n t r o l of a s i t e
as soon as possible.
84 pp.
Fefs.
(See
also F M - 5816, RM-5817, RM-5818, RM-5319.)
(CC)

RM-5816-PA
T h e P o t e n t i a l of V / S T O L
A i r c r a f t f o r P a s s e n g e r T r a v e l in t h e
New York Region.
T. F. K i r k w o o d ,
S. L. K a t t e n .
A u g u s t 1969.
C o n s i d e r a t i o n of the use of V / S T O L a i r ­
c r a f t to r e d u c e a i r t r a f f i c c o n g e s t i o n
at t h e m a j o r N o w Y o r k a r e a a i r p o r t s w h i l e
incre a s i n g overall terminal capacity.
T h r e e t i m e p e r i o d s — 1970, 1975, a n d 1 9 8 0 —
are considered; for each period c o m p a r i ­
sons are drawn between forecast V/STOL
and conventional aircraft.
Calculations
i n d i c a t e that, w h i l e V / S T O L c a n a t t r a c t
o n l y a s m a l l f r a c t i o n of t h e s h o r t h a u l
m a r k e t in t h e e a r l y p e r i o d s , b y 1 9 8 0 a




do w ntown V/3T0L port might a t t r a c t 10,000
p a s s e n g e r s a day.
It w i l l b e n e c e s s a r y t o
s e g r e g a t e V/STOL and c o n v e n t i o n a l o p e r a ­
tions.
Also V/STOL could substantially
r e d u c e a c c e s s t i m e to f u t u r e p e r i p h e r a l
airports.
H owever, the i n t r o d u c t i o n of
V / S T O L in N e w Y o r k m a y d e p e n d o n h o w m a n y
o t h e r a r e a s f i n d s i m i l a r a d v a n t a g e s in
t h e i r u s e or on a g o v e r n r a e n t - s u b s i d i z e d
d e v elopment program.
9 2 pp.
Refs.
(S o p
also RM-5815, RM-5817, RM-5818, RM-5819.)
(CC)

RM-5817-PA
The E fficient Use of A i r ­
p o r t R u n w a y C a p a c i t y in a T i m e of S c a r ­
city.
A. C a r l i n , R. E. P a r k .
August
1969.
An e x a m i n a t i o n of th e e x t e n t and n a t u r e of
the a i r p l a n e d e lay pro b l e m and a l t e r n a t i v e
s h o r t - t e r m p o l i c i e s to i n c r e a s e the e f f i ­
c i e n c y of r u n w a y use.
Relevant data,
m a i n l y f rom the t h r e e m a j o r New Y o r k a i r ­
p o r t s for the p e r i o d A p r i l 1967 t h r o u g h
M a r c h 1 9 6 8 , a r e i n v e s t i g a t e d a n d a simple*
q u e u e i n g m o d e l is p r e s e n t e d .
Calculations
show total delays during the o n e - y e a r pe r ­
i o d o f 3 . 3 m i l l i o n m i n u t e s a t K e n n e d y , .9
m i l l i o n a t L a G u a r d i a , a n d .7 m i l l i o n at
Newark.
E f f i c i e n c y c o u l d be i m p r o v e d by
a s y s t e m of p r o p o r t i o n a l m a r g i n a l co s t
p r i c i n g , which wou l d c h a n g e the b a s i s for
r u n w a y u s e f e e s f r o m a i r c r a f t weight, t o
h o u r of day, and by a d m i n i s t r a t i v e m e a s u r e s
i n v o l v i n g e l i m i n a t i o n of some or all gener­
al a v i a t i o n .
A c o m b i n a t i o n of t h e s e s t r a t ­
e g i e s w o u l d be ev e n m o r e e f f i c i e n t , as
wo u l d a p o l i c y of i s s u i n g s h o r t - t e r m p e r ­
m i t s d u r i n g p a r t i c u l a r h o u r s a c c o r d i n g to
use.
2 6 5 pp.
(Se e a l s o R K - 5 S 1 5 , Rtf-5816,
R M - 5 8 18, R M - 5 8 19.)
(CC)

RM-5818-PA
A M o d e l and C o m p u t e r C o d e
for S tudying A l t e r n a t i v e Air P a s s e n g e r
Processing Strategies.
D. 1. L a n d i ,
A. J. R o l f e .
A u g u s t 1969.
D e s c r i p t i o n of a m e t h o d f o r a s s e s s i n g t h e
e f f e c t i v e n e s s of a l t e r n a t i v e a i r p o r t l o c a ­
tions, pa s s e n g e r ter m i n a l locations, and
m a s s t r a n s p o r t a t i o n s y s t e m s i n v o l v e d in
p r o c e s s i n g a i r p a s s e n g e r s to t h e i r d e s t i ­
n a t i o n s in a l a r g e m e t r o p o l i t a n a r e a .
Data
i n p u t s to t h e m o d e l a r e t h e n o d e s a n d a r c s
of a r o a d t r a v e l - t i m e or t r a v e l - c o s t n e t ­
work, the l o c a t i o n s of p a s s e n g e r t e r m i n a l s
in t h e n e t w o r k , t h e t i m e s or c o s t s a s s o ­
c i a t e d w i t h e a c h d e s t i n a t i o n s e r v e d by
e a c h t e r m i n a l , a n d t h e v o l u m e s of p a s s e n g e r
trips from population centroids.
The p r o ­
g r a m , w r i t t e n in F O R T R A N T V f o r t h e I B r
7044, is a p p e n d e d .
It c o m p u t e s v o l u m e s
of p a s s e n g e r t r i p s p r o c e s s e d by e a c h t e r ­
minal for each trip orig i n an d the a v e r a g e
p a s s e n g e r t rip t i m e s o r c o s t s for e a c h
t e r m i n a l a n d f o r t h e entire' s y s t e m .
It

342
-72-

can a l s o l o c a t e p a s s e n g e r t e r m i n a l s or
a i r p o r t s that, m i n i m i z e t h e o v e r a l l a v e r a g e
trip time or cost.
7fl pp.
Refs.
(See
also RM-5815, RM-5816, RM-5817, RM-5819.)
(CC)

RM-5819-PA
Systems for Air Tr a n s p o r t a ­
tion S e r v i n g the New Yor k M e t r o p o l i t a n
Area, 1970-1980.
H. S. C a m p b e l l , D. ML a n d i , A. J. R o l f e .
A u g u s t 1969.
D e s c r i p t i o n and a n a l y s i s o f the costs,
b e n e f i t s , a n d o p e r a t i o n a l c o n s e q u e n c e s of
a l t e r n a t i v e enl a r g e d air tr a n s p o r t a t i o n
s y s t e m s for the New Y o r k region, i n c l u d i n g
(1) e x p a n d i n g p r e s e n t c a p a c i t y o f t h e m a j o r
a i r p o r t s , (2) e x p a n d i n g s h o r t - h a u l s e r v i c e
u s i n g V / S T O L a i r c r a f t , a n d (3) b u i l d i n g a
fourth major airport.
A n a l y s i s s h o w s the
V / S T O L s y s t e m to b e s u p e r i o r , p r o v i d i n g
g r e a t e s t p a s s e n g e r t r i p - t i m e b e n e f i t s at
t h e l o w e s t cost, w ith a n e s t i m a t e d $25m illion per year a d v a n t a g e over the other
two systems.
V/STOL could also be effec­
t i v e in t h e i n t e r i m r e q u i r e d f o r i m p l e m e n ­
t a t i o n of th e o t h e r plans, s i n c e b o t h re­
q u i r e l e a d t i m e s of s e v e r a l years.
Addi­
t i o n a l p r o b l e m s a s s o c i a t e d with the o t h e r
s y s t e m s a r e (1) i n c r e a s i n g p r e s e n t c a p a c ­
i t y w o u l d l e a d to s e v e r e g r o u n d a c c e s s
p r o b l e m s a t K e n n e d y , a n d (2) t h e d i s t a n c e
of the fourth airport from Manhattan would
r e q u i r e high-s p e e d rail c o n n e c t i o n s and
air s h u t t l e service.
7 5 pp.
Refs.
(See
also RM-5815, RM-5816, RM-5817, FM-5818.)
(CC)

RH-5846-NYC
A p p l y i n g t h e C o n c e p t s of
P r o g r a m B u d g e t i n g to t h e N e w Y o r k C i t y
Police Department.
A. J. T e n z e r ,
J. B. B e n t o n , C. T e n g .
J u n e 196 9.
A d e s c r i p t i o n o f t h e r e s u l t s of a 9 - m o n t h
e f f o r t to develop a p r o g r a m - b u d g e t i n g s y s ­
tem for the New York Police Department.
The Memorandum presents a detailed dis­
c u s s i o n of t he p r o g r a m b u d g e t f o r m a t , i n ­
c l u d i n g not only the p r o g r a m s t r u c t u r e
a n d c o s t s t r u c t u r e , b u t a l s o t he t e c h ­
n i q u e s d e v i s e d to e s t i m a t e t h e c o s t of
p o l i c e programs.
It a l s o d e s c r i b e s a
c o m p u t e r i z e d cost model designed for ana­
lyzing police department services.
Pro­
grammed for Pand ' s JOSS system, the model
w a s d e v e l o p e d by u s i n g t h e c o s t f a c t o r s
and cost-estimating techniques presented
in t h e s t a d y . I n g e n e r a l , t h e m o d e l d e s c r i b e s a s y s t e m ( s o m e p a r t of t h e p r o ­
g r a m s t r u c t u r e ) in t e r m s of i t s o p e r a ­
t i o n s and the r e s o u r c e s r e q u i r e d to per­
form them.
The output presents static
c o s t s tha t can be used to a n a l y z e the
e f f e c t of p o s s i b l e c h a n g e s in e q u i p m e n t
d e s i g n a n d in s y s t e m o p e r a t i o n on t o t a l
syst e m cost.
6 5 pp.
(MJP)




RM-5865-DOT
Assessing Alternative
T r a n s portation Systems.
J. P. M i l l e r .
A p r i l 1969.
A d e s c r i p t i o n of an e x p l i c i t , l o g i c a l l y
c o n s i s t e n t , an d r e p l i c a b l e p r o c e d u r e to
a id in e v a l u a t i n g a l t e r n a t i v e t r a n s p o r ­
tation systems.
It i s a s s u m e d t h a t a
de c ision c o n text has been s p ecified and
that a fix e d set of d i s c r e t e a l t e r n a t i v e s
has been produced.
^ h o p r o c e d u r e to a i d
in the a s s e s s m e n t and d e c i s i o n p r o c e s s
is q u a n t i t a t i v e t h r o u g h o u t a n d r e l i e s
he a v i l y on s u b j e c t i v e i n p u t s from r e ­
sponsible decisionmaking personnel.
The
m a j o r t h e s i s of th e p r o c e d u r e is th a t
a s s e s s m e n t and final c h o i c e must depend
on s u b j e c t i v e e v a l u a t i o n s , b u t that a
s y s t e m a t i c and q u a n t i t a t i v e m e t h o d of
making such judgments proves quite help­
fu l .
R e s u l t s d r a w n frorr: a n e x p e r i m e n t
th a t was p e r f o r m e d to test t h e p r o c e d u r e
(in a s i m p l e r , n o n t r a n s p o r t a t i o n c o n t e x t )
s u p p o r t this view.
T h i s s t u d y is o n e o f
t h r e e (se e R M - 5 8 6 8 a n d R M - 5 3 7 7 ) d e a l i n g
wi t h t e c h n i q u e s f or a n a l y s i s of m u l t i ­
di m e n s i o n a l a l t e r n a t i v e s and c o n t r i b u t i n g
to an o v e r a l l r e s e a r c h e f f o r t d i r e c t e d
t o w a r d d e v e l o p m e n t of c o m p r e h e n s i v e a n d
s y s t e m a t i c m e t h o d o l o g y for e v a l u a t i n g
the p o t e n t i a l u t i l i t y of a l t e r n a t i v e
transportation proposals.
176 pp.
Bibliog.
(MJP)

RM-5869-DOT
M e asurement and Evaluation
of T r a n s p o r t a t i o n System E f f e c t iveness.
F. S. P a r d e e , T. F. K i r k w o o d , K . P.
H a c C r i m m o n , J. R. M i l l e r , C. T.
P h i l l i p s , J. W. R a n f t l , K. V. S m i t h ,
D. K. W h i t c o m b .
S e p t e m b e r 1969.
O n e in a s e r i e s o f s t u d i e s p r e p a r e d f o r
the N o r t h e a s t C o r r i d o r T r a n s p o r t a t i o n
Project, this work concen t r a t e s p r i n c i ­
p a l l y on t h e p r o b l e m s o f (1) i d e n t i f y i n g
h i e r a r c h i c a l s t r u c t u r e s in t r a n s p o r t a t i o n
analysis,
(2) m e a s u r i n g a t t r i b u t e s t h a t
c h a r a c t e r i z e the r e l a t i o n s h i p b e t w e e n
t r a n s p o r t a t i o n and its impact on usprs,
o p e r a t o r s a n d s o c i e t y , a n d (3) d e v e l o p i n g
s p e c i f i c techn i q u e s for c o m b ining a t t r i ­
bute measures.
M e a s u r e s a re d e s i g n e d to
d e f i n e the i n t e r f a c e b e t w e e n f e a t u r e s of
the t r a n s p o r t a t i o n d e m a n d e d a n d t h e
techbologica1 alternatives proposed
to s u p p l y this ser v i c e .
In e f f e c t , a
choice among alternative system changes
c a n b e m a d e by i n c o r p o r a t i n g l a t a i n t o a
cost-benefit or system analytic framework
fo r a s p e c i f i e d b u d g e t i n c r e m e n t , a nd then
testing various mode mixes.
Examples
i l l u s t r a t e the p r o p o s e d t e c h n i q u e s .
4 7 8 pp.
Refs.
(See a l s o F M - 5 B 6 5 ,
RM-5868, RM-5873, RM-5874, RM-5877.)
(KF)

343
-73-

RH-5873-DOT
S a f e t y in T r a n s p o r t a t i o n :
T h e R o l e of G o v e r n m e n t , L a w , a n d I n s u r ­
ance.
L. B- L a v e .
A p r i l 19 6 9 .
A n a n a l y s i s o f h o w ati o p t i n a l l e v e l o f
t r a n s p o r t a t i o n s a f e t y c a n be a c h i e v e d in
t e r m s of v a r i o u s r o l e s o f c u r r e n t i n s t i ­
tutions.
Transportation safety results
f r o m t h e i n t e r a c t i o n of p a s s e n g e r s , g o v ­
e r n m e n t , law , a n d i n s u r a n c e .
The unique
r o l e e a c h p l a y s in o p t i m i z i n g s a f e t y i s
i n v e s t i g a t e d w i t h the u l t i m a t e o b j e c t i v e
of i d e n t i f y i n g th e role of g o v e r n m e n t and
r e g u l a t i o n in a c c o m p l i s h i n g s o c i e t y * s
s a f e t y goals.
W h i l e l i a b i l i t y laws and
i n s u r a n c e have w e l l - d e f i n e d roles in o p ­
timizing transportation safety, govern­
m e n t is s o m e t h i n g of a r e s i d u a l c l a i m a n t .
D e p e n d i n g on th e p a r t i c u l a r c i r c u m s t a n ­
ces, g o v e r n m e n t mig h t be c a l l e d up o n t o
d o n o t h i n g or to s e t t l e e v e r y t h i n g by
fiat.
It i s r e a s o n a b l e t o a s s e r t t h a t
whenever there are important deviations
f r o m o p t i m a l s a f e t y , government, h a s s o m e
o b l i g a t i o n to f i n d a w ay of c o r r e c t i n g
the s i tuation.
T h e s o l u t i o n s o p e n to
g o v e r n m e n t t ake three basic forms:
help
p e r f e c t t h e m a r k e t d i r e c t l y , c r e a t e in­
s t i t u t i o n s to p e r f e c t t h e m a r k e t , o r
c o r r e c t t h e d e v i a t i o n by fiat.
H Q pp.
(KB)

tion Planning.
K. P. K a c C r i m m o n .
A p r i l 1969.
A des c r i p t i o n of two methods of a n a l y z i n g
m u l t i - d i m e n s i o n a l a l t e r n a t i v e s in t h e d e ­
s i g n a n d e v a l u a t i o n p r o c e s s , a p p l i e d in
t h e c o n t e x t of f u t u r e t r a n s p o r t a t i o n s y s ­
t ems for the Northeast Corridor.
The
first m e t h o d de v e l o p s and e x h i b i t s f e a ­
s i b l e / a c c e p t a b l e r a n g e s of v a l u e s for use
in r e d u c i n g the c o m p l e x i t y of a p o t e n t i a l
selection process.
The second method
u t i l i z e s a n i n d i f f e r e n c e a n a l y s i s or
t r a d e o f f a p proach to improve u n d e r s t a n d ­
ing of t he r e l a t i o n s h i p a m o n g a t t r i b u t e s
a s v i e w e d by v a r i o u s u s e r , o p e r a t o r , a n d
s o c ietal groups.
Tradeoff curves are
s h o w n i n t e r m s of b o t h e q u a l p r e f e r e n c e
a n d e q u a l b u d g e t f o r v a r i o u s m i x e s of
technical possibilities.
When these two
f a m i l i e s of c u r v e s a re c o n s i d e r e d t o g e ­
th e r t h e y p r o v i d e a l i n e of o p t i m a l d e ­
sign which can h i g h l i g h t a s p e c i f i c s y s ­
tem d e s i g n goal.
T h i s p o r t r a y a l of the
i n t e r a c t i o n between e v a l u a t i o n and design
c o n s i d e r a t i o n s c a n be h e l p f u l t h r o u g h o u t
the process of design improvement.
40 pp.
Bibliog.
(See a l s o R M - 5 8 6 5 ,
RM-5868.)
(MJP)

RH-5874-DOT
Transportation, City Size
and Conge s t i o n Tolls.
L. B. L a v e .
A p r i l 1969.
P r e l i m i n a r y m o d e l s of c i t y c e n t e r s pe r mi t
the i n v e s t i g a t i o n of v a r i o u s f a c t o r s re­
l at i n g to t r ansportation:
rent patterns,
l o c a t i o n a l choice, c h o i c e of t r a n s p o r t a ­
t i o n mode, and l o c a t i o n a n d t r a n s p o r t a ­
tion externalities.
A relatively simple
m o d e l o f a ci t y c e n t e r is t a k e n as th e
s tarting point.
In the model, all land
o u t s i d e t he ci t y c e n t e r is a l l o c a t e d to
h o u s i n g ; c o s t a n d t ime r e q u i r e d to t r a v e l
to t h e c e n t e r a r e p r o p o r t i o n a l to d i s ­

M-5891-u e o
Youth and Work:
Toward
a H o d e l of L i f e t i m e E c o n o m i c P r o s p e c t s .
S. J. C a r r o l l , A. H. P a s c a l .
April
1969.
A n a n a l y s i s o f t h e c o n c e p t u a l i s s u e s in
r e s e a r c h on y o u t h e m p l o y m e n t e m b o d i e d i n
a general, dynamic model c o n s i s t i n g of a
system of s i m u l t a n e o u s equations.
The
m o d e l i s b a s e d on t h e p r e s u m p t i o n t h a t a
youth's economic prospects are a conse­
quence of three sets of inter a c t i n g vari­
ables, summarized as experience, per c e p ­
tions, and opportunities.
E q u a l i t y of
e c o n o m i c o p p o r t u n i t y is, e s s e n t i a l l y , a
long-run concept.
T he e x t e n t to w h ich an
i n d i v i d u a l s u f f e r s f r o m i n e q u a l i t i e s in

tance.

economic

k

A measure

of

the

benefit

of an

opportunity

depends

on

his

econo­

i m p r o v e m e n t in t r a n s p o r t a t i o n i s m a d e i n
t e r m s o f c h a n g e s in c o s t o f t r a v e l a n d
l a n d rent.
Subsequent complications are
a d d e d to t h e m o d e l in o r d e r t o r e f l e c t
transportation-related problems.
Among
t h e s e a re t h e d i s t r i b u t i o n p a t t e r n of
rich and poor with two transport modes,
t h e p r o b l e m of t r a n s p o r t a t i o n c o n g e s t i o n ,
a n d t h e q u e s t i o n of t h e o p t i m a l d e g r e e of
d e c e n t r a l i z a t i o n *when e c o n o m i e s of s c a l e
•
a n d f r e i g h t t r a n s p o r t b e t w e e n a n u m b e r of
city ce n t e r s are assumed.
5 3 pp.
Bibliog.
(KB)

m i c p r o s p e c t s at v a r i o u s p o i n t s i n t i m e .
T h e r e f o r e , the r e l a t i o n s b e t w e e n b e h a v i o r
at a p o i n t in t i m e a n d o p p o r t u n i t y o v e r
time are developed.
The model e x a m i n e s
a n u m b e r of p h e n o m e n a t h a t h a v e b e e n o f ­
f e r e d a s e x p l a n a t i o n s of the u n s a t i s f a c ­
t ory e c o n o m i c f u t u r e c o n f r o n t i n g lovincome urban youth.
The i m p l i cations for
policy anal y s i s and program evalu a t i o n are
e x p l o r e d at length.
Research priorities
are s u g g e s t e d and data a v a i l a b i l i t y and
requirements are discussed.
6 2 pp.
Bibliog.
(HJP)

RM-5 877-DOT
Improving the System D e ­
sign and E v a l u a t i o n P r o cess by the Use
of T r a d e - O f f I n f o r m a t i o n :
An A p p l i c a ­
tion to Northeast C o r r i d o r T r a n s p o r t a ­

RH-5903-SJS
An E v a l u a t i o n D e s i g n f o r
San Jose Unified School D i s t r i c t ’
s
Compensatory Education Program.
M . L.
R a p p , G. L. Brun.ner, E. M. S c h e u e r .




344
-74-

M a y 196 9 .
& d e s i g n for t h e e v a l u a t i o n o f t h e S a n
Jose Unified School D i strict's compen­
satory education program, which serves
primarily Mexican-American children.
The
n a j o r o b j e c t i v e of the e v a l u a t i o n is to
o b t a i n a d e q u a t e i n f o r m a t i o n for planning,
d e s i g n i n g , and i m p l e m e n t i n g f u t u r e p r o ­
grams.
Dat a w i l l be g a t h e r e d on t h e e f ­
f e c t s o f t h e c u r r e n t p r o g r a m on t h e a c a ­
d e m i c p e r f o r m a n c e a n d a t t i t u d e s of the
p a r t i c i p a n t s ; a s u r v e y will g a t h e r a d d i ­
t i o n a l b a c k g r o u n d i n f o r m a t i o n on t h e
f a m i l i a l a n d c u l t u r a l c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s of
t h e s t u d e n t s in t h e p r o g r a m .
Information
on s t u d e n t a c h i e v e m e n t w i l l b e a s s e s s e d
by regr e s s i o n analysis.
D ata on a t t i t u d e
an d a t t i t u d e c h a n g e , as d e t e r m i n e d by
b ot h sc h o o l - and b a c k g r o u n d - r e l a t e d f a c ­
t o r s , w i l l be m e a s u r e d u s i n g c r o s s - t a b u ­
lar analysis.
D i f f e r e n t i a l e f f e c t s of
p r o g r a m c o m p o n e n t s a n d c o m b i n a t i o n s of
c o m p o n e n t s will be s o u g h t at e a c h g r a d e
l e v e l , i n a d d i t i o n to a s s e s s i n g t h e o v e r ­
a l l c o n t r i b u t i o n o f p r o g r a m c o m p o n e n t s to
student achievement.
1 24 pp.
Refs.
(CC)

RM-6014-RC
M o d e l s of S e g r e g a t i o n .
T. C. S c h e l l i n g .
M a y 19 6 9 .
T w o t h e o r e t i c a l m o d e l s a r e d e v e l o p e d to
e x a m i n e the individual i ncentives and
p e r c e p t i o n s of d i f f e r e n c e b e t w e e n p e o p l e
t h a t c a n lead, c o l l e c t i v e l y , to t he se­
g r e g a t i o n o f v a r i o u s s u b - p o p u l a t i o n s.
T h e m o d e l s a l s o c l a r i f y t h e e x t e n t to
w h i c h i n f e r e n c e s c a n be d r a w n from the
p h e n o m e n o n of c o l l e c t i v e s e g r e g a t i o n
a b o u t the p r e f e r e n c e s of i n d i v i d u a l s , the
s t r e n g t h s of t h o s e p r e f e r e n c e s , a n d the
f a c i l i t i e s for e x e r c i s i n g t h e m .
The
f i r s t of t h e s e t w o c o n c e p t u a l m o d e l s is
a si m u l a t i o n model that d i s t r i b u t e s in ­
d i v i d u a l s w i t h i n a n a r e a in a c c o r d a n c e
w i t h t h e i r p r e f e r e n c e s a b o u t the c o m p o s i ­
tion of the neighborhood.
The variables
a r e t h e r a t i o of the t w o r a c e s in the
p o p u l a t i o n , the d e m a n d s for n e i g h b o r s
l i k e o n e s e l f , an d the s i z e of the n e i g h ­
b o r h o o d w i t h i n w h i c h an i n d i v i d u a l ’ p r e f ­
s
e r e nces operate.
T h e s e c o n d model,
w h i c h is a n a l y t i c a l , e x a m i n e s t h e q u e s ­
tions:
W h a t d i s t r i b u t i o n of c o l o r t o l e r ­
a n c e s a m o n g the p o p u l a t i o n m a y b e c o m p a t ­
ible with dynamically st a b l e mixtures?
What e f f e c t will the i n i t i a l c o n d i t i o n s
a n d t h e d y n a m i c s of m o v e m e n t h a v e o n t h e
outcome?
What k i n d s of n u m e r i c a l c o n ­
s t r a i n t s might a l t e r the r e s u l t s ?
U s e of
t h e f o r m a l m o d e l to e x a m i n e t h e p h e n o m e ­
non of n e i g h b o r h o o d t i p p i n g d o e s not r e ­
veal any important d i s c o n t i n u i t y n e c e s ­
s a r i l y o c c u r r i n g at t h e c o m m o n l y a c c e p t e d
t o l e r a n c e v a l u e of 20 p e r c e n t b l a c k .
89 pp.
(HJP)




Rn-6041-PC/O^O
Statistical Problems
i n A s s e s s i n g R a c i a l D i s p a r i t i e s in
Income.
S. B. C o l e m a n .
N o v e m b e r 196**.
T he p r o b l e m of d e t e r m i n i n g i n c o m e i n e q u a l ­
i t i e s b e t w e e n w h i t e s a n d n o n w h i t e s in t h e
U n i t e d S t a t e s is p ut i n t o a f r a m e w o r k of
statistical inference which includes con­
s i d e r a t i o n o f p r o b l e m s of n e a s u r e m e n t of
variables and interpretation.
Advantages
and d i s a d v a n t a g e s of s e v e r a l m e a s u r e s of
income inequality— income differences, in­
c o m e rati o s , " y e a r s b e h i n d , " and r a t i o s of
p r o p o r t i o n s — a r e w e i g h e d in t h i s f r a m e ­
w o r k r e s u l t i n g in a c h o i c e o f i n c o m e r a t i o s
a s t h e m o s t m e a n i n g f u l m e a s u r e of i n e q u a l ­
ity in t e r m s of a c o m p a r i s o n of w h i t e and
nonwhite income distribution.
Four crite­
ria a r e a p p l i e d in m a k i n g t h i s c h o i c e :
(1) T h e m e a s u r e m u s t r e f l e c t t h e e n t i r e
i n c o m e d i s t r i b u t i o n , and not just some
summary statistic.
(2) I t s h o u l d a s s i g n
d e g r e e of i n e q u a l i t y in a m a n n e r c o n s i s ­
t e n t with i n d i v i d u a l u t i l i t y for income.
(3) I t s h o u l d d i r e c t l y a d d r e s s c u r r e n t
as well as past i nequalities.
(4) T h e
v a l u e t h e m e a s u r e t a k e s s h o u l d not b e
d e p e n d e n t on t h e y e a r fo r w h i c h an i n ­
e q u a l i t y is b e i n g m e a s u r e d , s i n c e v a l u e s
f o r d i f f e r e n t y e a r s m u s t b e c o m p a r e d in
m e a s u r i n g c h a n g e s o v e r time.
A formula
is w o r k e d out for t a k i n g s a m p l i n g e r r o r s
into account.
£ 2 pp.
J
Refs.
(See a l s o
RH-6125.)
(TC)

RM-606 9-RC
T e l e c o m m u n i c a t i o n s in
Urban Development.
H. S. D o r d i c k ,
L. G. C h e s l e r , S. I. F i r s t m a n , P.
Bretz.
J u l y 1969.
W a y s in w hich t e l e v i s i o n can be u s e d to
i m p r o v e life in the urb a n ghetto.
A sur­
v e y , m a d e in L o s A n g e l e s a n d N e w O r l e a n s ,
in d i c a t e s that the failure to c o m m u n i c a t e
c ommunity i n f o r mation within the ghetto
and b e t w e e n the g h e t t o and n e i g h b o r i n g
c o m m u n i t i e s is l a r g e l y r e s p o n s i b l e for
t he i s o l a t i o n of g h e t t o r e s i d e n t s a n d f o r
t h e i r i n a b i l i t y to e n t e r i n t o the e c o n o m i c
mainstream.
Television, as a familiar
and r e l a t i v e l y t r u s t e d medium, has a g r e a t
p o t e n t i a l f o r c o m m u n i c a t i n g m a n y t y p e s of
information.
T h i s s t u d y c o n s i d e r s t h e ro.lp
of t e l e v i s i o n in t h r e e m a j o r a r e a s of
education:
preschool; e l e m e n t a r y and
s e c o n d a r y ; and adult.
The m a j o r c o n c l u ­
sion is t h a t one or m o r e p i l o t p r o j e c t s
s h o u l d be i m p l e m e n t e d t o a s s e s s t h e i n s t i ­
t u t i o n s r e q u i r e d to p r o d u c e and b r o a d c a s t
these p ro grams, p o t e n t i a l s o u r c e s of f i ­
n a n c i a l s u p p o r t , a n d d e g r e e of p u b l i c a c ­
c e p t a n c e a nd use.
The pro j e c t would in­
c l u d e two S o u t h C e n t r a l L o s A n g e l e s c o m ­
m u n i t i e s an d w o u l d p r o v i d e p r o g r a m s on
jo b i n f o r m a t i o n , e d u c a t i o n a l o p p o r t u n i ­
ties, c i t y hall news, and c u l t u r a l e v e n t s .
1 92 p p.
Refs.
Bibliog.
(MJP)

345
-75-

R8—6 133-OEO
An A n a l y s i s o f P o v e r t y :
Some Preliminary FindingsJ- J.
HcC&ll•
De c e a b e r 1969.
S t a t i s t i c s o n r a c o , fcge, s e x , a n d e s t i a a t e d a n n u a l i n c o m e up to $ 4 5 0 0 f o r
8 3 6 , 0 0 0 A n e r i c a n s in t h e p e r i o d 1 9 6 2 - 1 9 6 5
were processed using a probabilistic model
to d e t e rmine patterns of income mobility.
R e s u l t s s h o w e d th a t d u r i n g th i s p e r i o d of
sustained economic growth non-white males
c l o s e to t h e p o v e r t y l i n e ( m o s t o f w h o m
were blacks) b e n e f i t e d more from e x panded
job opportunity than their white counter­
parts.
H o w e v e r , a n o t h e r l a r g e n u m b e r of
blacks, the hard-core poor, remained aired
in poverty.
Findings suggest that while
u p w a r d m o b i l i t y m a y w e l l be l i n k e d to a
r i s e in t h e G N P , a n d w h i l e m a t u r e b l a c k
■ale w o r k e r s a r e m o r e s e n s i t i v e t o t h e
b u s i n e s s cycle than many of their white
c o u n t e r p a r t s , t h e r e a r e c e r t a i n g r o u p s in
s o c i e t y t h a t r e m a i n u n a f f e c t e d by e c o n o m i c
growth.
5 3 pp.
Refs.
(See a l s o R H - 5 7 3 9 OEO.)
(TC)

RH-6162-OEO
Racial Discrimination in
the Job Market:
T h e R o l e of I n f o r m a ­
tion and Search.
J. J. M c C a l l .
Janu­
a r y 1 970.
k theo r y of the value of d i s c r i m i n a t i o n in
t h e j o b m a r k e t a s a f u n c t i o n of t h e b u s i ­
n e s s c y c l e , b a s e d on e l e m e n t a r y m o d e l s of
e c o n o m i c b e h a v i o r in which, a m o n g o t h e r
things, employer uncertainty about employee
c a p a c i t y t o p r o d u c e is i n c o r p o r a t e d .
A
favorable economic environment is assumed
t o i n d u c e e m p l o y e r s t o e n g a g e in h i r i n g
e x periments, which, if they prove f a v o r ­
able, may e l i m i n a t e race as a scree n i n g
d evice when labor markets become less
tight.
If valid, the h y p o t h e s i s i m p l i e s
t h a t d i s c r i m i n a t i o n by e m p l o y e r s — and by
t h e n o n - w h i t e p o o r in t h e i r job s e a r c h —
i s e x p l i c a b l e on p u r e l y e c o n o m i c g r o u n d s
and t h a t a tight labor market could cause
b o t h g r o u p s to a l t e r b e l i e f s t h a t g i v e
r i s e to d i s c r i m i n a t o r y p r a c t i c e s .
3 7 pp.
Ref.
(TC)

RM— 619 0 — NYC
R e n t a l H o u s i n g in N e w
Y o r k C i t y , V o l u m e I:
C o n f r o n t i n g the
Crisis.
E d i t e d b y I. S. L o w r y .
Feb­
r u a r y 1 9 70.
Summarizes a projected five-volume study
by t h e N e w Y o r k C i t y - R a n d I n s t i t u t e of
the City ' s rental housing market.
The
study concludes that the current crisis
i n r e n t a l h o u s i n g - - m a n i f e s t e d in an e x ­
t r e m e l y low vac a n c y rate, rapid d e t e r i o r a ­
tion of the stock, a b a n d o n m e n t of rent a l
p r o perty by its owners, and increasing
friction between landlords and tenants—
is p r i m a r i l y d u e to a g r o w i n g d i s p a r i t y
b e t w e e n r e n t a l r e v e n u e s a n d t h e c o s t s of




supplying rental housing.
Revenues are
c o n s t r a i n e d b o t h by r e n t c o n t r o l a n d b y
low-incoae tenancy.
Present City programs
of regulation, assist a n c e , and d irect in ­
t e r v e n t i o n are i n c a p a b l e of c o r r e c t i n g
this basic c o st-revenue imbalance.
The
s t u d y p r o p o s e s (1) r e n t c o n t r o l c h a n g e s ,
(2) r e n t a s s i s t a n c e f o r l o w - i n c o n e f a m i ­
l i e s , (3) c o d e e n f o r c e m e n t r e f o r m s , (4)
c l i n i c a l t r e a t m e n t of p r o b l e m b u i l d i n g s ,
(5) p r o m p t a c q u i s i t i o n o f c e r t a i n t y p e s
o f d e l i n q u e n t b u i l d i n g s , a n d (6) a n e x p e r ­
imental program assisting community groups
to a c q u i r e r e n t a l h o u s i n g f o r n o n p r o f i t
or c o o p e r a t i v e management.
49 pp.
(A u ­
thor)

RH-6236
Working With a C i t y G o v e r n ­
ment.
P. L. S z a n t o n .
J a n u a r y 19 7 0 .
A l o o k at the e v o l u t i o n of R a n d r e s e a r c h
o n u r b a n p r o b l e m s in N e w Y o r k C ity.
Since
i n i t i a l c o n t r a c t s for a h a n d f u l of s t u d i e s
w e r e s i g n e d i n J a n u a r y 19 6 8 , i n v o l v e m e n t
w i t h s u b s t a n t i v e c i t y p r o b l e m s h a s l e d to
c reation of The New York C i t y -Rand Insti­
tute, a n o n p r o f i t c o r p o r a t i o n w i t h i t s own
b o a r d of t r u s t e e s a nd 85 p r o f e s s i o n a l
a n a l y s t s a t w o r k on m o r e t h a n 40 s e p a r a t e
studies for 9 city agencies.
I n t h i s RM.
o r i g i n a l l y d e l i v e r e d a s an a d d r e s s b e f o r e
the N a t i o n a l A c a d e m y of E n g ineering, the
author examines the link between researcher
and d e c i s i o n m a k e r , the i n t r i c a t e p r o c e s s
of i n v o l v i n g m u n i c i p a l a d m i n i s t r a t o r s as
p a r t i c i p a n t s in t h e r e s e a r c h e f f o r t to
e n a b l e t hem to make the best, most c r e a ­
t i v e use of m o d e r n a n a l y t i c t e c h n i q u e s .
The results:
the f i r s t a t t e m p t by a m a j o r
city g o v e r n m e n t and a r esearch institution
to e s t a b l i s h a c e n t e r for the c o n t i n u i n g
a p p l i c a t i o n of s c i e n c e and a n a l y t i c t e c h ­
n i q u e s to p r o b l e m s of u r b a n l i f e a n d l o c a l
government.
0 pp.
(TC)

RM-6253-RC
Some Models of Racial Dis­
c r i m i n a t i o n in t h e L a b o r M a r k e t .
K. J.
Arrow.
F e b r u a r y 1971.
P a r t of a Rand s t u d y on t he m e a s u r e m e n t of
r a c i a l d i s c r i m i n a t i o n in t h e e c o n o m i c
sphere.
Although neoclassical theory can
offer a coh e r e n t and p l a u s i b l e e x p l a n a t i o n
of the i m p a c t of r a c i a l d i s c r i m i n a t i o n
a n d a c c o u n t s in a g r o s s w a y f o r t h e k n o w n
facts, some p r o blems remain.
This memo­
randum describes a s imple model by which
an e m p l o y e r can p u r c h a s e b l a c k l a b o r at a
fixed price; for this labor he must choose
s o m e p o i n t on an i n d i f f e r e n c e c u r v e b e t w e e n
w a g e s a n d t h e p r o p o r t i o n o f w h i t e s in t h e
firm.
The implications--no wage differen­
t i a l s on the o n e h a n d a n d s e g r e g a t i o n on
t he o t h e r — a r e r e s p e c t i v e l y c o n t r a r y to and
h a r m onious with observation.
Thus, there
is a f a i l u r e of c o n v e x i t y — e x t r e m e a l t e r ­

346
-76-

na t ives aro preferred to compromises.
T e c h n i c a l a n a l y s i s o f t h e m o d e l is p r e ­
s e n t e d in n o t e s f o l l o w i n g t h e text..
This
m e m o r a n d u m is b e i n g a d a p t e d f o r i n c l u s i o n
in a f o r t hcoming Rand book, Th e A m e r i c a n
E c o n o m y in 3 l a c k anil W h i t e ;
A s s a y s on
R a c e D i s c r i m i n a t i o n i n E c o n o m i c L i f e.
6 0 pp.
(KR)

RM-6255-DOT
A n a l y s i s of I n t e r c i t y
Transport Improvements:
Forecasting
Dema n d and Evaluating User Benefits.
Z. F. L a n s d o v n e .
Ma y 1970.
O n e o f a s e r i e s of m e m o r a n d a d e v e l o p i n g
p r o c e d u r e s for e v a l u a t i n g a l t e r n a t i v e
transportation proposals.
T his s t u d y de­
vises a method for analyzing prospective
m o d i f i c a t i o n s of intercity facilities.
C u r r e n t m o d e l s for p r e d i c t i n g t r a v e l d e ­
mands deal with neither new transportation
m o d e s n o r m a j o r i m p r o v e m e n t s in e x i s t i n g
inodes.
The proposed intercity travel model
a s s u m e s that the user c h o o s e s among modes
a c c o r d i n g to t h e i r a t t r i b u t e s - - e . g . , t r a v e l
c o s t , time, an d s a f e t y - - a n d s e l e c t s the
r o u t e that m a x imizes his t r i p ’ utility.
s
A ne w m o d e may be i n t r o d u c e d by s p e c i f y i n g
its attributes.
In the p r o p o s e d u s e r - b e n e fit model, the b e nefits recei v e d from
t r a n s p o r t i m p r o v e m e n t s a r e m e a s u r e d in
d o l l a r s and aro a g g r e g a t e d over all origindestina t i o n - p o i n t pairs and time periods.
8 5 p p.
Ref.
(See a l s o R M - 5 8 6 9 . )
(LC)

RM-6273-OEO
T h e E f f e c t s of M i n i m u m
W a g e s on t h e D i s t r i b u t i o n o f C h a n g e s
in A g g r e g a t e E m p l o y n e n t .
M_ K o s t e r s ,
F. R. W e l c h .
S e p t e m b e r 1970.
A n a l y z e s t h e d i s t r i b u t i o n of f l u c t u a t i o n s
i n a g g r e g a t e e m p l o y m e n t i n t h e U.S . b e t w e e n
n o n w h i t e s and whites, mal e s and fem a l e s ,
a n d t e e n a g e r s a n d a d u l t s in t h e p e r i o d
1954-1968.
T he m a r k e d i m p r o v e m e n t of the
i n c o m e p o s i t i o n of n o n w h i t e s m a y be p a r t l y
a t t r i b u t a b l e to t h e s u s t a i n e d e c o n o m i c
e x p a n s i o n of the e a r l y 1960s and thus
s u b j e c t to r a p i d e r o s i o n a s e x p a n s i o n s l o w s
o r is r e v e r s e d .
N o n w h i t e s (except for
ad u l t females) are d i s p r o p o r t i o n a t e l y
a f f e c t e d by employment, f l u c t u a t i o n s .
Teen­
a g e r s a r e most h e a v i l y a f f e c t e d by s h o r t ­
term employment changes:
males more than
females, non w h i t e s more than whites.
Ef­
fective minimun-wage increases have made
t e e n a g e r s m o r e v u l n e r a b l e t h a n b e f o r e to
s h o r t - t e r m changes, and have decreased
t h e i r s h a r e of n o r m a l e m p l o y m e n t , p a r t i c ­
ularly nonwhite teenagers.
The a n a l y s i s
i n d i c a t e s that s l a c kening economic growth
wi l l a d v e r s e l y a f f e c t nonwhit.es and n o n ­
white teenagers.
3 2 pp.
(DGS)




P I - 6 3 2 4 - DOT* ( V o l u m e 1)
M e a s u r e m e n t and
Evaluation of Alternative R e g i o n a l
T r a n s p o r t a t i o n Mixes:
V o l u m e I, S u m ­
mary.
F. S. P a r d e e , C. T. P h i l l i p s ,
K. V. S m i t h .
A u g u s t 1 9 70.
O v e r v i e w of a c o m p r e h e n s i v e m e t h o d o l o g y a n d
e v a l u a t i v e procedure for a n a l y z i n g po t e n ­
tial b e n e fits, r a t h e r than cos t , of a l t e r ­
native transportation proposals.
Attention
is d i r e c t e d t o w a r d i n v e s t i g a t i n g the im­
p a c t o v e r t i m e o f m i x e s of m o d e s r a t h e r
than s i ngle transpo r t a t i o n systems.
Since
t h e s c o n e of t h e p l a n s i s r e g i o n a l , e m ­
p h a s i s is o n i n t e r c i t y t r a v e l .
A set of
o b j e c t i v e s and p o l i c y o p t i o n s i s d e v e l o p e d
to a s s e s s the c o n t r i b u t i o n of a l t e r n a t i v e s
to the g o a l s of a region.
User and so c i e ­
tal a n a l y s e s predict b e n e f i t s and are p e r ­
form e d by i d e n t i f y i n g , me a s u r i n g , and
c o m b i n i n g a t t r i b u t e s of the t r a n s p o r t a t i o n
m i x e s of m o d e s b e i n g e v a l u a t e d .
An a g g r e ­
g a t i o n is also m a d e o v e r the n e t w o r k and
region as a whole.
User and s o c i e t a l
benef i t s are combi n e d with ope r a t o r b e n e ­
fits, w h i c h may be v i e w e d as c o n s t r a i n t s
to b e s a t i s f i e d to p r o d u c e an i n f o r m a t i o n
p a c k a g e for e ach a l ternative.
This in­
f o r m a t i o n p r o v i d e s t r a d e o f f d a t a to t h e
t r a n s p o r t a t i o n p lanner, f e e d b a c k to the
s y s t e m des i g n , and f o r m s a b a s i s for s e n ­
sitivity analyses.
53 pp.
Ref.
(See
a l s o R M - 6 3 2 4 , V o l u m e II a n d I I I . )
(KB)

R K - 6 3 2 4 - D O T ( V o l u m e 2)
M e a s u r e m e n t and
E v a l u a t i o n of A l t e r n a t i v e R e g i o n a l
Transpo r t a t i o n Mixes:
V o l u m e II , M e t h ­
odology.
F. S. P a r d e e , C. T. P h i l l i p s ,
K. V. S m i t h .
A u g u s t 19 7 0 .
C u r r e n t t r a n s p o r t a t i o n s e r v i c e in a g i v e n
r e g i o n c a n be v i e w e d as a mix of h a r d w a r e
sys t e m s or modes oper a t i n g over a network
of l i n k s .
C h a n g e s in t h e c u r r e n t m i x o c c u r
a s a r e s u l t of r e v i s i o n s in p r i c i n g , r o u t e
structure, scheduling changes, and t e c h ­
nological changes.
C h a n g e s o c c u r at d i f ­
f e r e n t l i n k s o f t h e n e t w o r k a n d in d i f ­
ferent time periods.
C h a r a c t e r i s t i c s of
the r e g i o n a l e n v i r o n m e n t i t s e l f , s u c h as
p o p u l a t i o n o r i n d u s t r i a l d i s t r i b u t i o n , can
also c h a n g e over time.
This memorandum
d e v e l o p s a m e t h o d o l o g y for e v a l u a t i n g the
p o t e n t i a l b e n e f i t of a l t e r n a t i v e i n t e r c i t y
t r a n s p o r t a t i o n p r o p o s a l s for a r e g i o n .
M e t h o d s of m e a s u r e m e n t i n c l u d e o r d e r i n g a ?
attribute, p e r f o r m a n c e s c a l e s , d i r e c t a s ­
s i g n m e n t of w o r t h e s t i m a t e s , t h e d o l l a r
wo r t h s u m mary, v a r i o u s t e c h n i q u e s for a s ­
s i g n i n g w e i g h t s to a t t r i b u t e s , and the use
of i n d i f f e r e n c e c u r v e s .
Information de­
r iv ed from using t h e s e m e t h o d s can be p r e ­
s e n t e d in a c o n d e n s e d f o r m s o t h a t d e c i ­
s i o n s c a n be m ade using s u f f i c i e n t , but
not excessive, a m o unts of data.
140 pp.
Ref.
(See a l s o R M - 6 3 2 4 , V o l u m e s I a n d
III.)
(K 9)

347
-77-

H M - 6 3 2 Q - D O T ( V o l u m e 3)
M e a s u r e m e n t and
Evaluation of Alternative Regional
T r a n s p o r t a t i o n Mixes:
V o l u m e III, Ex­
ample.
P. S. P a r d e e , C. T. P h i l l i p s ,
K. V. S m i t h .
A u g u s t 1970.
I l l u s t r a t i o n of the a p p l i c a t i o n of a d e ­
t a i l e d m e t h o d o l o g y for e v a l u a t i n g c h a n g e s
t o an e x i s t i n g mix of t r a n s p o r t a t i o n modes.
T h e s e t t i n g f o r t h e e x a m p l e is a g e o g r a p h i ­
cal r e g i o n that is part of the Nor t h e a s t
C o r r i d o r of the U.S.
Two alternative en­
v i r o n m e n t s and three alternative transpor­
t a t i o n m i x e s a r e s p e c i f i e d for the r e g i o n
o ver the time p eriod 1970-2000.
Popula­
t i o n s in t h e r e g i o n ' s c i t i e s and d i s t r i ­
but i o n s within these citi e s are assuaed
for each environment.
Separate evaluations
a r e p e r f o r m e d to d e t e r m i n e b o t h u s e r a n d
societal benefits.
151 p p .
Ref.
{See
a l s o R M - 6 3 2 4 , V o l u m e s I a n d II.)
(KB)

RM-6339-NYC
Planning Public Expendi­
tu r e s on M ental Heal t h S e r v i c e Delivery.
F. A. S l o a n .
F e b r u a r y 1 971.
k n e c o n o m i c analysis of mental health
services, expecially community centers,
p r e p a r e d f or N Y C p o l i c y m a k e r s ' use.
De­
l i v e r y of m e n t a l h e a l t h s e r v i c e s m a y be
i m p r o v e d by r e f i n i n g e x i s t i n g m a r k e t
sochanissoM ore e f f o r t u<m be ndue t o
i m p r o v e c o n s u m e r k n o w l e d g e by m e ans of
publications describing service alterna­
t ive s , w i t h o u t m a j o r use of p u b l i c funds.
C o s t - b e n e f i t a n a l y s i s can d e m o n s t r a t e the
r e l a t i v e w o r t h of p r o g r a m s , but e f f i c i e n c y
an a l y s i s based on production-function
a n a l y s i s , e v e n e v a l u a t i o n of o u t p u t e f ­
f e c t i v e n e s s , i s f o r the f u t u r e , b e c a u s e
p rer e q u i s i t e data are lacking.
A pilot
st u d y was c o n d ucted at two community
mental health centers.
It d e m o n s t r a t e s
that persons with widely different educa­
t i o n a l b a c k g r o u n d p e r f o r m the same f u n c ­
tion; inputs are highly substitutable;
diseconomies

of

scale

exist;

reduction

in t h e s e v e r a l s o u r c e s of i n e f f i c i e n t
p r o d u c t i o n u n r e l a t e d to s c a l e w o u l d m e a n
operational cost savings; personnel-patient
r a t i o s oust c h a n g e m a r k e d l y to a l ter
d irect patient care; and patient contact
c o s t s m o r e in s o m e c o m m u n i t y m e n t a l h e a l t h
c e n t e r s than in private p s y c h iatric pra c ­
tice.
131 pp.
Bibliog.
(SM)

t r a f f i c c a s e s p r o c e s s e d in 1967.
Numbers
of d e f e n d a n t s at e a c h s t a g e a r e s h o w n , as
w e l l a s the m e t h o d by w h i c h e a c h e s t i m a t e
was derived.
R e f i n ements and ex t e n s i o n s
of the research are suggested that would
provide a more complete picture of court
o p e r a t i o n s f o r u s e in a l l o c a t i n g c o u r t
resources, identifying bo t t l e n e c k s and
o p e r a t i o n a l problems, and e x a m i n i n g the i n ­
teractions between the court and other
agencies.
Difficulties encountered under­
s c o r e the nee d f o r an o v e r h a u l of t h e e n ­
tire information system:
s t a t i s t i c s re­
ported by various agencies are incompati­
ble, s t a t i s t i c s in r e p o r t s a g g r e g a t e
physically distinct operations, procedures
are not uniform, and s t a t i s t i c a l report
preparation means long delays3 8 pp.
Ref.
(See a l s o R-638.)
(SM)

RH-6366-RC
T w o M o d e l s of t h e U r b a n
Crisis:
An A n a l y t i c a l E s s a y o n B a n f i e l d
and Forrester.
H. A v e r c h , R. A. L e v i n e .
S e p t e m b e r 1970.
An a s s e s s m e n t o f E. C. B a n f i e l d ' s r e c e n t
T h e U n h e a v e n l y C i t y a n d J. W. F o r r e s t e r ’
s
U r b a n D y n a m i c s.
As u r b a n e x p e r t s , b o t h
are considered influential.
But Banfield.'s
work i s f l a w e d by l o g i c a l i n c o n s i s t e n c y
a n d m i s u s e ot e v i d e n c e , a n d F o r r e s t e r ' s
work lacks empirical evidence.
Thus they
c o n t r i b u t e l i t t l e to r e s o l v i n g s e r i o u s
urban problems.
Rather, they reduce the
n u m b e r o f p o l i c y i n s t r u m e n t s to p u b l i c
e d u c a t i o n , e f f o r t s to u n d e r s t a n d t h e p e r ­
verse nature of c u r r e n t programs, and pa­
tience.
" F o r e x a m p l e " , w r i t e the a u t h o r s ,
" B a n f i e l d p r e f e r s a z e r o m i n i m u m or low
minimum wage and Forrester pr e f e r s a larges cale s lum de m o l i t i o n with no r ehousing
of s lum resid e n t s and u n c l e a r e d land given
to i n d u s t r y und e r f a v o r a b l e terms.
On the
b a s i s of the e v i d e n c e . . . p o l i c y m a k e r s would
b e i l l a d v i s e d t o p r o c e e d on t h e i r r e c ­
om m endationsAn a l t e r n a t i v e
is that
p r o m i s i n g c u r r e n t p r o g r a m s b e r e f i n e d . . .and
t h a t we c o n t i n u e t o s e a r c h f o r e f f i c i e n t
new programs through social e x p e r i m e n t s . "
3 3 pp.
(TC)

PAPERS
RH-6364-NYC
The F low of D e f e n d a n t s
t hrough the New York City Criminal Court
i n 1967.
J. B. J e n n i n g s .
September
1970.
K d e t a i l e d q u a n t i t a t i v e d e s c r i p t i o n of t h e
f l o w o f d e f e n d a n t s t h r o u g h the C r i m i n a l
C o u r t of t h e C i t y o f N e w Y o r k Presented
d i a g r a m m a t i c a l l y as f low charts, the d e ­
s c r i p t i o n of c a s e s is r e s t r i c t e d to a r ­
r a i g n m e n t s a n d f i n a l d i s p o s i t i o n s of non-




P-1556
C o m m e n t s on A u t o m o b i l e T r a f f i c .
J . D. W i l l i a m s .
N o v e m b e r 1958.
An a t t e m p t t o v i e w a u t o m o b i l e f a t a l i ­
t i e s in c o n t e x t .
T h e t h e s i s d i s c u s s e d is
t h a t a s u b s t a n t i a l n u m b e r of f a t a l i t i e s
i s a n i n e v i t a b l e c o n s e q u e n c e of an o p e r a ­
t i o n of t h e m a g n i t u d e a n d c h a r a c t e r of
t h a t c o n d u c t e d on our h i g h w a y s , t h a t the
p r esent rate is not alar m i n g when viewed

348
-78-

a g a i n s t th o v a l u e d e r i v e d from tho a u t o ­
n o b i l e , a n d t h a t th** r a t e c a n p r o b a b l y be
r e d u c e d without, r e d u c i n g t h o u t i l i t y of
the o p e r a t i o n .
21 pp.

P-1621
P r o p o s a l fo r a " S m o g T a x . "
D. M. F o r t , W. A. M i s k a n e n , A. H. P a s ­
c a l , V. F. S h a r p e .
F e b r u a r y 1950.
A p r o p o s a l for t a x i n g o a c h o p e r a t o r a c ­
c o r d i n g to his v e h i c l e ' s t o t a l output of
air p o l l u t a n t s w i t h i n tho L o s A n g o l o s
basin.
Th o authors contend that this
m e a s u r e w o u l d r e d u c e th e t o t a l e m i s s i o n
o f a i r p o l l u t a n t s fro"' a u t o m o b i l e e x h a u s t s
i n t h o L o s A n g e l o s b a s i n to an a c c e p t a b l e
level, a c h i e v e tho d e s i r e d r e d u c t i o n as
soon as p o s s i b l e , m i n i m i z e the r e q u i r e d
a d m i n i s t r a t i v e e x p e n s e and i n t e r f e r e n c e
in i n d i v i d u a l a f f a i r s , a n d t r e a t i n d i v i d ­
u a l s in d i f f e r e n t c i r c u m s t a n c e s a s e q u i ­
t a b l y as p o s s i b l e .
T h i s p r o p o s a l is a lso
c o m p a r e d with a l t e r n a t i v e s m o g - c o n t r o l
proposals.
27 pp.

P-192U
^he P o t e n t i a l of E l e c t r o n i c
D a t a P r o c e s s i n g in M u n i c i p a l G o v e r n ­
ment.
E. F. H . liearie.
F e b r u a r y i960.
An e x a m i n a t i o n o f t h e m a j o r c h a r a c t e r i s ­
tics of e l e c t r o n i c d a t a - p r o c e s s i n g e q u i p ­
m e n t a n d of t h e u s e o f c o m p u t e r s in s o l v ­
ing m u n i c i p a l problems.
Almost all muni­
c i p a l a c t i v i t i e s u s i n g i n f o r m a t i o n c a n be
d e s c r i b e d i n t e r m s of i n p u t , p r o c e s s i n g ,
storage, and output.
The c o n c e p t that
E D P is t o o c o s t l y f o r s m a l l c i t i e s w i l l
b e ob s o lete' b y 1 9 8 0 , a n d t h e a u t h o r t h u s
a r g u e s t h a t ve s h o u l d a n a l y z e o u r d e c i s i o n ­
m a k i n g p r o c e s s e s and d e s i g n m u n i c i p a l i n ­
f o r m a t i o n s y s t e m s to take fu l l a d v a n t a g e
of the capab i l i t y our technology will pro­
vide.
8 pp.

P - 2 0 62
T he F u ture of Data P r o c e s s i n g
in S t a t e G o v e r n m e n t .
S. F. R. R e a r l e ,
R. J. M a s o n .
A u g u s t 1 9 60.
F o r e c a s t s on d a t a - p r o c o s s i n g - e g u i p r a e n t
c a p a b i l i t i e s in t h e 1 9 7 0 ’ a n d s u g g e s t i o n s
s
a s t o how s t a t e g o v e r n m e n t s s h o u l d p r e p a r e
t h e m s e l v e s to u s e t h e s e c a p a b i l i t i e s m o s t
effectively.
D a t a p r o c e s s i n g in b o t h m a n ­
ual and a u t o m a t i c s y s t e m s i s d e s c r i b e d in
t e r m s of input, storaje, p r o c e s s i n g , o u t ­
put., a n d c o m m u n i c a t i o n .
Better-designed
i n f o r m a t i o n s y s t e m s w i l l l e a d to b e t t e r
d e c i s i o n s and u l t i m a t e l y to s i g n i f i c a n t
op e r a t i n g econ o m i e s and i mproved state
operations.
9 pp.

P-2422
morrow.

The A u t o m o b i l e — T o d a y and ToG. A. H o f f m a n .
J a n u a r y 1 962.




A p r e d i c t i o n of f u t u r e a u t o m o b i l e c h a r ­
a c t e r i s t i c s , d e r i v e d by e x a m i n i n g o a c h
c o m p o n e n t of p r e s e n t - d a y a u t o m o b i l e s in
t h e l i g h t of e m e r g i n g t e c h n i c a l a n d e c o ­
nomic pressures.
The e v o l v e d c o m p o n e n t s
are rec o n s t r u c t e d into p o s s i b l e v e h i c l e s
of a d e c a d e or two henc e , p e r m i t t i n g a
p r e d i c t i o n of weights, c a p a c i t i e s , p e r ­
f o rmances, speeds, sizes, m a n e u v e r a b i l ­
ities, and initial and o p e r a t i n g costs.
29 pp.

P-2452
Possible Economies Through
E l e c t r o n i c Data P r o c e s s i n g F. F. R.
Hearle.
O c t o b e r 196 1 .
A d i s c u s s i o n of m u n i c i p a l d a t a p r o c e s s ­
in g .
E c o n o m i e s p o s s i b l e t h r o u g h the use
of e l e c t r o n i c d a t a p r o c e s s i n g d e p e n d d i ­
r e c t l y o n t h e e x t e n t to w h i c h m u n i c i p a l
o f f i c i a l s are ab l e to s p e c i f y the p r e c i s e
r o l e of da t a in c i t y o p e r a t i o n s .
Until
r e c e n t l y , it. w a s s u f f i c i e n t t o c o n c e n t r a t e
s o l e l y o n t h e u s e o f d a t a in c l e r i c a l a p ­
plications.
F r o m n o w on , t h e a u t h o r c o n ­
c l udes, c i t i e s must a lso i m p r o v e the use
of d ata in m a n a g e m e n t d e c i s i o n s .
10 pp.

P-2454
C a n E D P b e A p p l i e d to All P o ­
lice Agencies?
E. F. R. H e a r l e .
Oc­
t o b e r 1961.
A n a t t e m p t to d e t e r m i n e t h e v a l u e o f
e l e c t r o n i c d a t a p r o c e s s i n g in p o l i c e a g e n ­
cies.
T he a u t h o r d i s c u s s e s the n a t u r e of
the d a t a - p r o c e s s i n g job f a c i n g law e n f o r c e ­
ment a g e n c i e s , the e q u i p m e n t a v a i l a b l e now
a n d in t h e f u t u r e f o r h a n d l i n g t h i s j o b ,
and what p o l i c e d e p a r t m e n t s ca n a nd s h o u l d
do n o w a b o u t EDP.
12 pp.

P-2453-1
W h a t to d o A b o u t T e a c h e r
Shortages.
F. N. M c F o a n , J. A. K e r ­
shaw.
N o v e m b e r 19 6 1 .
A s u g g e s t i o n that the s h o r t a g e s o f t e a c h ­
e r s in p a r t i c u l a r f i e l d s can be a l l e v i a t e d
if s c h o o l d i s t r i c t s a d o p t a n e w k i n d o f
salary schedule that permits higher s a l ­
a r i e s for r e l a t i v e l y s c a r c e s k i l l s .
Tho
a u t h o r s u r g e t h a t , if i n d i v i d u a l d i s t r i c t s
a n d t h e n a t i o n as a w h o l e a r e t o p r o v i d e
adequate e ducation at a c c e p t a b l e costs,
boards of education, school administrators,
a n d o t h e r c i t i z e n s s h o u l d adopt, s u c h s a l ­
ary d i f f e r e n t i a l s , s e r i o u s l y w e i g h i n g t h e
potential gains against the difficulties.
15 pp.

P-2U39
T ho J o u r n e y - t o - W o r k as a D e ­
t e r m inant of Resid e n t i a l Location.
J. P. K a i n .
D e c e m b e r 196 1.
D a t a o n t h e m a n n e r in w h i c h t r a n s p o r t a -

349
-79-

tion costs infl u e n c e the h o u s e h o l d s
c h o i c e of a r e s i d e n t i a l l o c a t i o n .
A
r e s i d e n t i a l l o c a t i o n m o d e l is a l s o d e ­
s c r i b e d that c onsiders this problem somevhat d i f f e r e n t l y from p r e v i o u s models.
It is shown that h o u s e h o l d s su b s t i t u t e
journey-to-work expenditures for site ex­
penditures.
This substitution depends
primarily on household preferences for
l o v - d e n s i t y as o p p o s e d to h i g h - d e n s i t y
resi d e n t i a l services.
40 pp.

P— 2492
E. F.

1962.

R.

Data Pr o c e s s i n g for Cities.
H e a r l e , B. J. M a s o n .
February

S u g g e s t i o n s for i m p r o v e m e n t o f the e f f i ­
c i e n c y of r o u t i n e d a t a - p r o c e s s i n g a c t i v i ­
ties of mun i c i p a l gover n m e n t s .
The Paper
d e s c r i b e s the a c t i v i t i e s c a r r i e d out in a
d a t a systeia, t h e e q u i p m e n t a v a i l a b l e n o w
and in the f o r e s e e a b l e fut u r e for f a c i l i ­
tating these activities, the nature of
m u n i c i p a l data, the d e s i g n and m e c h a n i z a ­
tion of muni c i p a l data systems, and the
selection of data processing equipment.
50 pp.

P-2533
Urban E c o n o m i c A c c o u n t s and
Research:
A Comment.
F. T. M o o r e .
F e b r u a r y 1 962.
C o m m e n t s on two p a p e r s d e l i v e r e d b e f o r e
the A m e r i c a n E c o n o m i c Associ a t i o n at New
Y o r k , D e c e m b e r 27, 1 9 6 1 .
B o t h p a p e r s (on e
b y Dr. H a r v e y P e r l o f f a n d t h e o t h e r by
P r o f . W e r n e r H i r s h ) a t t e m p t to i n c r e a s e t h e
extent and type of information collected
on urban and r egional affairs.
Hir s c h has
s p e c i f i c s u g g e s t i o n s f o r a c c o m m o d a t i n g the
i n f o r m a t i o n in a s i n g l e f r a m e w o r k , w h e r e a s
P e r l o f f suggests proceeding on four inter­
related fronts.
4 pp.

P-2549
A R e p o r t o n an U r b a n T r a n s p o r ­
t ation Hodel:
Some P r o g r e s s and Some
Problems.
J. F. K a i n .
J u n e 19 6 2 .
A d e s c r i p t i o n of p r o g r e s s on a R A N D m o d e l
t h a t i s i n t e n d e d as a m e a n s f o r e v a l u a t ­
ing the general underlying technological
and e c o n o m i c c h a n g e s occur r i n g in the
r e l a t i o n s h i p between land use and t r ans­
p o r t a t i o n in t o d a y ’ u r b a n a r e a s .
s
This
m o d e l c o n s i s t s of a s e r i e s of s t a t i s t i ­
cally estimated sub-models tied together
by m a c h i n e i n s t r u c t i o n s or decis i o n rules
p r e s p e c i f i e d w ithin the model itself, or
s p e c i f i e d o u t s i d e the mac h i n e for an e n ­
t i r e m a c h i n e ru n o r for e a c h i t e r a t i o n of
the model.
26 pp.


81-745 O - 72 - pt. 1 --23


P-2557
A Data-Processing System for
State and Local Governments.
E. F. R.
Hearle.
M a r c h 19 6 2 .
A n a p p r o a c h to d a t a s y s t e a s f o r s t a t e
and local g o v e r n m e n t s that l o o k s beyond
m e c h a n i z a t i o n of p r e s e n t p r o c e d u r e s t o
the d e v e l o p m e n t of fresh c o n c e p t s of in­
f orm a t i o n h andling through the use of
electronic data-processing technology.
The P a per e m p h a s i z e s the p eriod from 1970
to 1975 b oth as to f o r e s e e a b l e EDP e q u i p ­
ment c a p a b i l i t i e s and as to t r e u d s in gov­
e r n m e n t a l c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s that affect data
systems.
The e n t i r e c o m p l e x of f u n c t i o n s
performed by states, counties, cities,
t o w n s h i p s , and d i s t r i c t s is c o n s i d e r e d
r a t h e r than the p a r t i c u l a r o p e r a t i o n s of
any s p e cific agency.
13 pp.

P-2614-1
C h a n g e s in t h e L o c a t i o n o f
Food and General M e r c h a n d i s e Store Em­
ployment Within M e t r o p o l i t a n Areas,
1948-1958.
J. h . N e i d e r c o r n , J. F.
Kain.
A u g u s t 196 2 .
An e c o n o m e t r i c m o d e l e x p l a i n i n g c h a n g e s
in f o o d and d e p a r t m e n t s t o r e e m p l o y m e n t
f r o m 1948 t h r o u g h 1954 a n d f r o m 1954
t h r o u g h 1958.
T he P a p e r s h o w s the i m p o r ­
t a n c e o f the
nhtori c h a n g e i n t h e v a r i ­
a b l e r a t i o of l a b o r to s a l e s fo r c e n t r a l
city equations.
It i l l u s t r a t e s the im­
portance of technological change, innova­
t io n , an d o t h e r s h i f t s in t h e p r o d u c t i o n
f u n c t i o n in d e t e r m i n i n g l e v e l s of e m p l o y ­
ment.
It a l s o s h o w s t h a t c h a n g e s in p r o ­
d u c t i v i t y a r e n ot i n d e p e n d e n t of c h a n g e s
in e m p l o y m e n t and new investment.
In
r a p i d l y g r o w i n g a r e a s , c h a n g e s in e m p l o y ­
m e n t a n d n e w i n v e s t m e n t a p p e a r to i n ­
fluence produc t i v i t y more than a u t o n o m o u s
c h a n g e s in the l a t t e r i n f l u e n c e t h e f o r ­
mer.
2 3 pp.

P-2625
A n a l y s i s of S o m e L a n d T r a n s p o r ­
tation Vehicles— Today and Tomorrow.
R. H. H a a s e .
A u g u s t 1962.
A c o n s i d e r a t i o n of f i v e c a t e g o r i e s of
urban-transportation technology:
vehicles,
p r o p ulsion systems, r i g h t - o f - w a y and allied
structures, storage and mainte n a n c e f a c i l i ­
ties, a n d c o n t r o l s y s t e m s .
Ve h i c l e s of to­
day and t o m orrow are d e s c ribed, and some
c h a l l e n g e s for f u t u r e d e v e l o p m e n t are
noted.
27 pp.

P-2641
Suburbanization of Employment
and Population, 1948-1975.
J. H.
N i e d e r c o r n , J. F. K a i n .
J a n u a r y 1963.
An a n a l y s i s of t h e p o s t w a r r e d i s t r i b u t i o n
o f e m p l o y m e n t a n d p o p u l a t i o n w i t h i n 39 o f
the l a r g e s t U.S. m e t r o p o l i t a n areas.
Rap­
id g r o w t h h a s o c c u r r e d i n t h e m e t r o p o l i ­

350
—80—

ta n ring and only slow growth in the c o n ­
trol city.
An e c o n o m e t r i c m o d e l i n d i c a t e s
th.it. t h e s e t r e n d s a r e l i k e l y t o c o n t i n u e
i n t.hc f u t u r e .
The s i g n i f i c a n c e of these
fi n d i n g s for urban d e v e l o p m e n t and t r a n s ­
p o r t a t i o n p l a n n i n g is d i s c u s s e d .
39 pp.

P-2651,
M o d e l s of U r b a n C h a n g e :
Their
Role in Urban T r a nsportation Research.
C.
«J. Z w i c k .
O c t o b e r 1962.
k d i s c u s s i o n o f t h e r o l e of u r b a n - c h a n g e
m o d e l s in u r b a n - t r a n s p o r t a t i o n r e s e a r c h .
T h e s e m o d e l s can bo used as m e a n s for f ore­
c a s t i n g , a s r e s e a r c h t oo l s to s t u d y t he
p r o c e s s of urban change, and as e d u c a t i o n a l
devices.
C o m p o n e n t s t u d i e s in t h e d e v e l o p ­
ment of s u c h m o d e l s i n c l u d e the t e c h n o l o g y
of urban transportation, employment dis­
tribution, residential location, tripmaking
b eh a v i o r and mode choice, and gove r n m e n t
p o l i c y a f f e c t i n g la n d use.
17 p p .

P-2662
S y s t e m C o n s i d e r a t i o n s in R e ­
gional Information Exchange.
E. F. R.
Hearle.
N o v e m b e r 1962.
A d i s c u s s i o n of the r e a s o n s f or the widethe r e g ional e x c hange of health, medical,
and welfare information.
First, s u b s t a n ­
t i a l a d v a n c e s in b o t h r e s e a r c h a n d p a ­
t i e n t c a r e Btight b e a c h i e v e d i f t h e v o l ­
u m e s o f v a l u a b l e d a t a b u r i e d in f i l e s o f
health, medical, and wel f a r e a g e n c i e s
were more accessible.
Second, data elec­
t r o n i c d e v i c e s o f f e r r e a l p r o m i s e of m a k ­
i ng b e t t e r a c c e s s to suc h d a t a t e c h n o l o g ­
ically feasible.
C o n s i d e r a t i o n is also
g i v e n to t h e d e s i g n of a r e g i o n a l i n f o r m a ­
tion s y s t e m c h a r a c t e r i z e d by many g e o ­
g r a p h i c a l l y remote input and output
s t a t i o n s l i n k e d to a c e n t r a l p r o c e s s i n g
and s t o r a g e facility.
10 pp.

P-2663
An E c o n o m e t r i c M o d e l o f M e t r o ­
politan Development.
J. H. N i e d e r c o r n ,
J. P. K a i n .
D e c e m b e r 196 2 .
T h i s P a p e r p r e s e n t s a m o del of t he p o p u ­
l ati o n and emplo y m e n t cha n g e s that oc­
c u r r e d in t h e 39 l a r g e s t s t a n d a r d m e t r o ­
p o l i t a n s t a t i s t i c a l a r e a s f r o m 1954 to
1958.
A m o n g the q u e s t i o n s this m o d e l is
i n t e n d e d to ans w e r are the following:
Do population changes lead to employment
changes?
Ts the opposite true?
Or do the
t w o s i m u l t a n e o u s l y e x e r t s o m e i n f l u e n c e on
each other?
Are empl o y m e n t and p o p u lation
d e c l i n e s o c c u r r i n g i n s o m e of th e o l d e r
c e n t r a l c i t i e s a t t r i b u t a b l e to t r a n s p o r t a ­
tion system c hanges r esulting from biases
in pu b l i c policy that favor c a p ital ex­
pen d i t u r e s for highways over those for
public transit?
Or a r e t h e s e d e c l i n e s




c a u s e d by s h i f t s in e m p l o y m e n t l o c a t i o n s
a t t r i b u t a b l e t o c h a n g e s in p r o d u c t i o n
t e c h n i q u e s and h o u s e h o l d l o c a t i o n s ?
38 pp.

P-2667
A C o n t r i b u t i o n to t h e U r b a n
T r ansportation Debate:
An E c o n o m e t r i c
M o d e l of U r b a n R e s i d e n t i a l a n d T r a v e l
Behavior.
J. P. K a i n .
N o v e m b e r 1962.
T h i s P a p e r i l l u s t r a t e s the a p p l i c a b i l i t y
o f a s i m p l e e c o n o m e t r i c m o d e l in e x p l a i n ­
ing t r a v e l and r e s i d e n t i a l b e h a v i o r of
urban households.
The model r e p r e s e n t s a
s u c c e s s f u l a t t e m p t to d e a l w i t h t h e i n t e r ­
d e p e n d e n c i e s and s u b s t itution r e l a t i o n ­
ships involving travel media and housing
and commuting expenditures.
It a l s o p r o ­
v i d e s an e x a m p l e of o n e way in w h i c h t h e
e c o n o m i s t s ' s k i l l s c an be b r o u g h t to bea r
on the c o m p l e x and i n c r e a s i n g l y difficult.
problems facing urban areas.
3 7 pp.

P-2682
The Demand for T r a n s f o r a t i o n
S e r v i c e s in a G r o w i n g E c o n o m y .
C. J.
Zwick.
D e c e m b e r 1962.
A p r e s e n t a t i o n of th e v i e w t h a t , b e c a u s e
a r e l a t i v e l y high level of p e r c a p i t a i n ­
come and a relatively ubiquitous supply
o f t r a n s p o r t a t i o n e x i s t in a l l r e g i o n s o f
the U n i t e d States, m o s t of o u r f u t u r e
e c o n o m i c g r o w t h w i l l b e r o o t e d in f o r c e s
outside the transportation industry.
As
future t r a n s p o r t a t i o n r e q u i r e m e n t s will
be i n t i m a t e l y li nk ed to thi s g r ow t h, the
f u t u r e d e v e l o p m e n t of o u r e c o n o m y m u s t be
a n t i c i p a t e d in p l a n n i n g t r a n s p o r t a t i o n
systems.
10 pp.

P-2712
Battery-operated Electric Auto­
mobiles.
G. A. H o f f m a n .
M a r c h 19 6 3 .
A c o m p a r i s o n of b a t t e r y - o p e r a t e d and
g a s o l i n e - d r i v e n cars.
T he c o m p a r i s o n is
m a d e on the b a s i s of p e r f o r n a n c e , size,
comfort, and initial acceleration.
General
efficiency, including lifetime costs, ap­
p r o a c h e s t h a t of the p r e s e n t - d a y c o m p a c t .
With u se of t h e i m p r o v e d b a t t e r i e s n ow
a n t i c i p a t e d , t he m e r i t s of t h e e l e c t r i c
a u t o c o u l d then be r e a l ized; n a m e l y , l e s s
air p o l l u t i o n , l e s s of a r e q u i r e m e n t for
l and f or a u t o m o t i v e use, l e s s n o i s e .
31 pp.

P-2714
E l e c t r o n i c Data P r o c e s s i n g for
C i t i e s — The Broad Look.
E. F. R.
Hearle.
F e b r u a r y 19 6 3 .
A s u m m a r y of w ha t e l e c t r o n i c d a t a - p r o c e s s ­
i n g e q u i p m e n t c a n d o f o r c i t i e s n o w a n d in
the near future.
Modern automatic datap r o c e s s i n g e q u i p m e n t g r e a t l y i n c r e a s e s the
c a p a b i l i t y of m u n i c i p a l a g e n c i e s to h a n d l e
i n f o r m a t i o n , e s p e c i a l l y if a n o v e r - a l l .

351
- 8 1 -

integrated system serving the entire muni­
c ipal organization is developed, rather
t h a n a p i e c e m e a l m e c h a n i z a t i o n of f a m i l i a r
clerical operations.
11 pp.

P-2735
C o m m u t i n g and the R e s i d e n t i a l
Decisions of Chicago and Detroit Cen­
tral Business District WorkersJ. F.
Kain.
A p r i l 196 3 .
A p r e s e n t a t i o n of a mod e l f or e x p l a i n i n g
a n d p r e d i c t i n g the t r a v e l a n d r e s i d e n t i a l
b e h a v i o r of the u r ban p opulation.
The
■ odel i s t e s t e d u s i n g d a t a o n w o r k t r a v e l
o b t a i n e d from t r a n s p o r t a t i o n s t u d i e s of
C h i c a g o and Detroit.
For the m ost part,
the test r e s u l t s a r e f o u n d to be c o n s i s t ­
e n t w i t h t h e r e s u l t s of t h e e m p i r i c a l
studies.
4 3 pp.

P-2740
H a v e We L e a r n e d A n y t h i n g from
Transportation Studies?
F.. F. R.
Hearle.
M a y 1 9 63.
C o m m e n t s on t h e v a l u e r e c e i v e d f o r t h e
$ 5 0 , 0 0 0 , 0 0 0 s p e n t in the p a s t d e c a d e f o r
urban transportation studies.
The meney
a p p e a r s to have b een well spent.
The
hawn

mi

won r rn in rp h p n s i v f i c o n s i d ­

e r a t i o n to all a p p r o p r i a t e modes and fa­
c i l i t i e s w i t h i n a s y s t e m i n t e n d e d to
s e r v e t h e o v e r - a l l r e q u i r e m e n t s of a r e ­
gion.
Planners and other officials are
b e g i n n i n g t o t h i n k in r e g i o n a l p e r s p e c ­
t i v e s a n d in t e r m s of w h o l e s y s t e m s ,
r a t h e r t h a n in v i l l a g e p e r s p e c t i v e s a n d
in h i g h w a y o r m o n o r a i l t e r m s .
12 pp.

P-2754
Systems Analysis and Orban
Planning.
C. J. Z w i c k .
J u n e 19 6 3 .
A g e n e r a l d i s c u s s i o n of s y s t e m s a n a l y s i s
t e c h n i q u e s a n d t h e i r a p p l i c a t i o n to u r b a n
problems.
The analytical approach pro­
v i des a s y s t e m a t i c means to a s s e s s the
i m p a c t a n d i n t e r a c t i o n of t e c h n o l o g i c a l
and e c o n o m i c c o n s t r a i n t s and is a p p l i c a b l e
t o m a n y a r e a s of u r b a n p l a n n i n g .
14 pp .

P-2755
T r a n s p o r t T e c h n o l o g y and the
••Real W o r l d . M
H. H e y m a n n , J r .
June
1 963.
A d i s c u s s i o n of t r a n s p o r t p l a n n i n g and
technology.
The P a per p o i n t s out that
t r a n s p o r t a t i o n s y s t e m s s h o u l d r e s p o n d to
h u m a n n e eds and should not become a cost l y
e n d in t h e m s e l v e s .
T h o u y h t m u s t be giv e n
t o t h e i m p a c t o f s u c h s y s t e m s on t h e
qua l i t y and char a c t e r of c o m m u n i t y and
n a t i o n a l lif e and on the l o c a t i o n a l p a t ­
t e r n of e c o n o m i c a c t i v i t y .
13 pp.




P-2764
Are C i t i e s H e r e to S t a y ?
E. P. P. H e a r l e .
J u l y 1963.
An e x a m i n a t i o n o f t h e g r o w t h o f c i t i e s
in t h r e e d i m e n s i o n s :
faots--how cities
h a v e c h a n g e d s i n c e W o r l d Wa r IT ; f o r c e s —
what cau s e s have brought about these
c h a n g e s ; f u t u r e - - w h a t f o r e c a s t s c a n be
made c o n c e r n i n g the c h a r a c t e r of c i t i e s
a d e c a d e or two from now.
It is urged
that so l u t i o n s of t r affic e n g i n e e r i n g
p r o b l e m s take into account the t e c h n o l o g ­
ical, economic, social, and p o l i tical
f o r c e s p r o p e l l i n g t h e c h a n g e s in c i t i e s .
14 pp .

P-2765
Information Sys t e m s for Urban
Planning.
E. F. R. H e a r l e .
J u l y 19 6 3 .
A di s c u s s i o n of a p p r o a c h e s to urban i n for­
m a t i o n s y s t e m s a n d c u r r e n t e f f o r t s in t h i s
field under way around the country.
The
i m p o r t a n c e o f th e w o r d s s y s t e m a n d i n t e q r a t i o n is e m p h a s i z e d .
Two approaches
are d e s c r i b e d :
(1) t h e " i n f o r m a t i o n a v a i l ­
a b i l i t y 1 a p p r o a c h , in w h i c h t h e p u r p o s e is
1
to d e s i g n a s y s t e m t h a t will h a n d l e a w i d e
r a nge of information, l a r g e l y i n d e p e n d e n t
o f t h e u s e s to w h i c h t h e i n f o r m a t i o n i s
p u t ; a n d (2) t h e " i n f o r m a t i o n r e q u i r e m e n t s ”
a p p r o a c h . , in w h i c h t h e o b j e c t i v e is t o d e ­
s i g n a s y s t e m to h a n d l e o n l y t h a t i n f o r m a ­
t i o n r e q u i r e d for s p e c i f i c d e c i s i o n s and
o p e r a t i o n s which have t h e m s e l v e s been a n a ­
l y z e d in c o n s i d e r a b l e deta i l .
The " i nfor­
m a t i o n a v a i l a b i l i t y " a p p r o a c h is p r e f e r r e d .
18 pp.

P-2803
I n f o r m a t i o n S y s t e m s for City
Management.
E. F. R. H e a r l e .
October
1963.
An e x a m i n a t i o n o f t h e p r o b l e m o f h a n d l i n g
i n f o r m a t i o n as p a r t of the c i t y m a n a g e r ’
s
job.
P r e d i c t i n g that t h i s p r o b l e m is go­
ing to b e c o m e i n c r e a s i n g l y i m p o r t a n t , the
Paper stresses a more systematic approach
to i n f o r m a t i o n - h a n d l i n g a c t i v i t i e s .
11 pp.

P— 2807
Some Pit f a l l s in the A n a l y s i s
of R e s i d e n t i a l L o c a t i o n a l P r e f e rences.
13. F. B r i g h a m .
O c t o b e r 1963.
A c r i t i q u e of a r e c e n t l y p u b l i s h e d m e t h o d
fo r e v a l u a t i n g t he s t r e n g t h of a m e t r o ­
pol i t a n p o p u l a t i o n ’ pr e f e r e n c e for c e n ­
s
tral residential locations.
While recog­
n i z i n g the value of the m e t h o d u n d e r
q u e s t i o n , the P a p e r p o i n t s o u t t wo i m p o r ­
t a n t e r r o r s in i t s i l l u s t r a t i o n :
the
use of a si n g l e , a t y p i c a l s a m p l e to r e p ­
r e s e n t an e n t i r e a rea, a nd a f a i l u r e to
take in t o acc o u n t the a m e n i t y level.
Los
A n g e l e s i s the f o c u s of t h e d i s c u s s i o n ,
but the c riticisms and s u g g ested i mprove­
ments are generally applicable.
8 pp.

352
-

82 -

P-2313
A r e We W i l l i n g t o P a y f o r C o n gestion-Frce Transportation?
R. H.
Haase.
J a n u a r y 19 f>4.
h b r i e f c o n s i d e r a t i o n o f t he p r o b l e m s of
peak-hour traffic congestion.
The author
s u g g e s t s t h a t , b e c a u s e we c a n n o t a f f o r d
the cost of providing the f a c i l i t i e s nec­
e s s a r y to e l i m i n a t e c o n g e s t i o n , we will
h a v e to e i t h e r c o n t i n u e to l i v e w i t h rushh o u r c o n g e s t i o n or c h a n g e o u r p a t t e r n s of
l i v i n g t o e l i m i n a t e p e a k i n g i n t h e u s e of
transportation facilities.
15 p p .

P-2R18
Divergences Between Individual
and Total Costs Within Government.
P. N. M c K e a n .
N o v e m b e r 196 3 .
A s t u d y of the c o n t r a s t b e t w e e n a t t i t u d e s
t o w a r d t h e p r i v a t e a n d p u b l i c p o r t i o n s of
the oconomy; namely, the d i f f e r e n c e b e ­
tw e e n c o s t s and r e w a r d s as p e r c e i v e d by
d e c i s i o n m a k e r s , and t o t a l c o s t s and re­
w a r d s p r o d u c e d by t h e i r acti o n s .
These
differences are often called external
e c o n o m i e s o r d i s e c o n o m i e s or s p i l l o v e r
e f f e c t s ; t hey s o m e t i m e s a f f e c t p e o p l e in
ways tha t de c i s i o n m a k e r s do not take into
account.
The effect of the function of
t h e s e d i f f e r e n c e s in g o v e r n m e n t o p e r a t i o n s
is presented.
9 pp.

P-2963
Inside Bureaucracy.
A. D o w n s .
A u g u s t 1964.
A t h e o r e t i c a l study of b u r e a u c r a t i c de­
cisionmaking.
It a t t e m p t s t o p r o v i d e
bot h a b e t t e r u n d e r s t a n d i n g of t h e o p e r ­
a t i o n of b u r e a u s a n d to s u p p l y the t e c h ­
n i q u e s for predicting their behavior.
29 pp.

P-2991
R e s u m e of t h e H A N D C o n f e r e n c e
on U r b a n E c o n o m i c s .
J. H. N i e d e r c o r n ,
A. H. P a s c a l .
O c t o b e r 1964.
A r e s u m e of the C o n f e r e n c e on n r b a n E c o ­
n o m i c s h e l d 2 4 - 2 5 A u g u s t 1964 at RAND.
T h i s c o n c l a v e of p u b l i c o f f i c i a l s a nd r e ­
sear c h e r s discussed race rela t i o n s and
poverty, urban transportation, and ways
in w h i c h a c o o r d i n a t e d s e t of p o l i c y t o o l s
for a t t a c k i n g u r b a n p r o b l e m s and i m p r o v i n g
u r b a n func t i o n s might h e l p in shaping a
better metropolis.
3 2 pp.

P-3002
O n M i n i m i z i n g t h e L a n d U s e d by
A u t o m o b i l e s a n d P u s e s in t h e U r b a n C e n ­
tral Core:
Und e r g r o u n d H ighways and
Parking Facilities.
G. A. H o f f m a n .
O c t o b e r 1964.
An e x a m i n a t i o n of the p o s s i b i l i t i e s for
r e d u c i n g the a m o u n t o f l a n d u sed for u r b a n
t r a n s p o r t a t i o n in t h e c e n t r a l c i t y b y p r o ­




viding autom o t i v e acce s s with d eep un d e r ­
ground tunnels and parking areas.
The
c o s t of c o n v e n t i o n a l u r b a n h i g h w a y s b u i l t
t hrough d e n sely p o p u l a t e d a r e a s is c o m ­
pa r e d wi t h the c o s t s of c o n s t r u c t i n g an d
ventilating vehicular tunnels.
Design
f e a t u r e s of u n d e r g r o u n d c o n s t r u c t i o n a nd
travel are considered.
Recommendations
a r e g i v e n for s t u d y of the u n d e r g r o u n d
hi ghway c o n c e p t and d e v e l o p m e n t of p r o t o ­
type machi n e s c a p a b l e of rapid e x c a v a t i o n
of v e h i c u l a r t u n n e l s i n m o s t r o c k c o n d i ­
tions.
3 0 pp .

P-3031
A Theory of Bureaucracy.
A.
Downs.
N o v e m b e r 1964.
P r e s e n t a t i o n of a t h e o r y of b u r e a u c r a t i c
d e c i s i o n m a k i n g based upon the h y p o t h e s i s
that burea u c r a t i c o f f i c i a l s are motivated
by t h e i r own s e l f - i n t e r e s t s at lea s t p a r t
of the time.
The t h e o r y as de v e l o p e d has
two m a j o r p u r p o s e s :
to permit a better
u n d e r s t a n d i n g of t h e o p e r a t i o n s o f b u ­
reaus, a n d to m ake p o s s i b l e n ore a c c u r a t e
predictions about their behavior.
13 p p .

P-3059-1
T h e E f f e c t of t h e G h e t t o on
the D i s t r i b u t i o n and L e v e l of N o n w h i t e
E m p l o y m e n t in U r b a n A r e a s .
J. F. K a i n .
R e v i s e d Hay 1965.
An a n a l y s i s of t h e e f f e c t of d i s c r i m i n a ­
tion in t he h o u s i n g m a r k e t on the d i s t r i ­
b u t i o n an d l e v e l of n o n w h i t e e m p l o y m e n t in
urban areas.
The h y p o t h e s e s e v a l u a t e d are
t h a t r a c i a l s e g r e g a t i o n in t h e h o u s i n g
m a r k e t : (1) a f f e c t s t h e d i s t r i b u t i o n o f
n o n w h i t e e m p l o y m e n t ; a n d (2) r e d u c e s n o n ­
w h i t e job o p p o r t u n i t i e s .
The hypot h e s e s
are tested empirically, using origin and
d e s t i n a t i o n data ob t a i n e d from the 1952
Detroit Area T r a f f i c Study a nd the 1956
C h i c a g o Area T r a n s p o r t a t i o n Study.
2 3 pp .

P - 3002-1
Economic Growth and Poverty.
R. R. N e l s o n .
A p r i l 1965.
A d i s c u s s i o n o f e c o n o m i c g r o w t h a s it r e ­
l a t e s to p r o b l e m s of p o v e r t y a n d t h e i r
resolution.
The factors promoting eco­
nomic growth in the Uni t e d States, a d j u s t ­
m e n t s r e q u i r e d , a nd p r o s p e c t s for the
future are covered.
12 pp.

P-3092
R e c o n n a i s s a n c e for the War on
Poverty.
A. H. P a s c a l .
M a r c h 1965.
A d i s c u s s i o n of fac t o r s for c o n s i d e r a t i o n
in p l a n n i n g t h e w a r on p o v e r t y a n d s u g ­
gestions for further research.
Labor mar­
ket policies, d i s c r i m i n a t i o n , e d u c a t i o n
and t r a i n i n g , a n d t h e i r r e l a t i o n s h i p to

~9353
poverty
7 pp.

levels

are discussed

briefly.

P-3095
The Economics of Housing Segre­
gation.
A. H. P a s c a l .
M a r c h 19 6 5 .
A n a t t e m p t to s e p a r a t e the c a u s e s o f o b ­
s e r v e d s e g r e g a t i o n o f n o n w h i t e s in U . S .
cities into socio-economic differences
and prejudice.
The major hypothesis
t e s t e d i s that r e s i d e n t i a l s e g r e g a t i o n is
s o c i o - e c o n o m i c i n c h a r a c t e r , i.e., i s a t ­
t r i b u t a b l e to w h i t e / n o n w h i t e d i f f e r e n t i a l s
in income and vealth, family size and c o m ­
p osition, and the job locat i o n of its
working members.
The P a per proves this
hypothesis untenable and supports this
c o n c l u s i o n by s u p p l e m e n t a r y t e s t s .
Nei­
ther could a g o o d case be made for v o l u n ­
t a r y s e g r e g a t i o n by n o n w h i t e s a s a n e x p l a ­
na t i o n of their r e s i d e n t i a l pattern.
2 8 p p.

P-3114
A Sh o r t Course in Model Design.
I. S. L o w r y .
A p r i l 1965.
An e x a m i n a t i o n of the m o d e l - b u i l d e r * s way
o f t h i n k i n g a n d t h e m e a n i n g of t h e t e r m s
cf his trade, as yell as s u g gested s t a n d ­
a rds for e v a l u a t i n g his product.
Basing
his a n a l y s i s on cur r e n t m o d e l s of urban
l a n d use and s p a t i a l i n t e r a c t i o n , the
a u t h o r d i s c u s s e s their use, the a p p l i c a ­
t i o n of t h e o r i e s to them, t h e s t r a t e g y of
d e s i g n , a n d the f i t t i n g a n d t e s t i n g of a
model.
He c o n c l u d e s tha t o r d i n a r i l y a
c l i e n t a c c e p t s from the m o d e l - b u i l d e r a
tool of unk n o w n e f f i c a c y and that the
tests are at best partial and indecisive.
He a lso maintains, however, that the p roc­
e s s of m o d e l - b u i l d i n g is e d u c a t i o n a l and
its future is promising.
2 8 pp.
Bibliog.

P-3293-1
S y s t e m s A n a l y s i s a s an A i d
in Air Tr a n s p o r t a t i o n Planning.
D. N.
Fort.
M a r c h 196 6 .
A d i s c u s s i o n of p o s s i b l e uses and l i m i t a ­
t i o n s of s y s t e m s a n a l y s i s as an aid in
air transportation planning.
Following
g e n e r a l r e m arks on the subject, c o n s i d e r ­
a t i o n is g i v e n to the a p p l i c a t i o n of s y s ­
t e m s a n a l y s i s t o a few a r b i t r a r i l y s e ­
lected non-military air transportation
p l a n n i n g p r o b l e m s , to i l l u s t r a t e v a r i o u s
pertinent points.
T h e e m p h a s i s i s on t h e
i m p o r t a n t i n i t i a l s t e p s in f o r m u l a t i n g
the analysis, beginning with the identi­
f i c a t i o n a nd d e f i n i t i o n of t h e p r o b l e m .
T h e n e e d for r e a l i s t i c a n d r e l e v a n t i n p u t s
is stressed.
No a t t e n t i o n i s g i v e n to
p a r t i c u l a r a n a l ytical or c o m p u t a t i o n a l
models or techniques.
It is s u g g e s t e d
t h a t s y s t e m s a n a l y s i s c a n be a n y t h i n g
f r o m v e r y u s e f u l t o w o r s e t h a n u s e l e s s in




air transportation planning,
the q u a lity of the analysis.

d e p e n d i n g on
47 pp.

P-3HH
O p e r a t i o n s R e s e a r c h on U r b a n
Problems.
F. T. M o o r e .
J u n e 1966.
A c o n s i d e r a t i o n o f th e v a l u e of o p e r a ­
t i o n s r e s e a r c h in d i f f e r e n t a r e a s o f
social welfare.
Some a n a lysts feel that
t h e i r s y s t e m s s h o u l d be w i d e l y used;
others believe that various substantive
constraints nullify their best efforts.
T h e p r o b l e m is to d e f i n e the c h a r a c t e r i s ­
t i c s of t h o s e p r o j e c t s for w h i c h t he
t e c h n i q u e s are p a r t i c u l a r l y s u i t a b l e or
which contain severely restrictive dif­
ficulties.
The t r a d e - o f f s b e t ween social,
e c o n o m i c , public, and p r i v a t e b e n e f i t s are
discussed.
9 pp.

P-3460
S t atic And D y n a m i c Society.
P. K e c s k e m e t i .
S e p t e m b e r 1966.
A view f r o m M e g a l o p o l i s of t r a d i t i o n a l
a n d m o d e r n man a s m e m b e r s of s t a t i c a n d
dynamic societies.
Trad i t i o n and i n ven­
t i o n a s f a c t o r s in t h e d e v e l o p m e n t o f
modern s o c iety are e v aluated.
It i s c o n ­
c l u d e d t h a t n r o rtr e s s t o v s r d a " o r e r a ­
.
tional world may not point toward more
and more pure dynamism, but rather toward
a s y n t h e s i s of d y n a m i s m , t r a d i t i o n a l i s m ,
and charisma.
35 p p .

P-3475
Land Use Information.
G. R.
Hall.
N o v e m b e r 1966.
A r e v i e w of " L a n d U s e I n f o r m a t i o n :
A
C r i t i c a l S u r v e y of U.S. S t a t i s t i c s I n c l u d ­
ing P o s s i b i l i t i e s for G r e a t e r U n i f o r m i t y , 1
1
b y M a r i o n C l a w s o n , w i t h C h a r l e s L. S t e w a r t .
T h e b o o k m a r k s t h e t r a n s i t i o n to a n e w e r a
c h a r a c t e r i z e d b y (1) a c o n c e r n w i t h p a t ­
t e r n s of l a n d u s e a n d a w i l l i n g n e s s to i n ­
f l u e n c e t h e m t h r o u g h p u b l i c p r o g r a m s ; (2)
a n i n t e r e s t in b a s i n g d e c i s i o n s o n q u a n ­
t i t a t i v e a n a l y s i s ; a n d (3) a n i n c r e a s i n g
c a p a b i l i t y to c r e a t e an d han d l e q u a n t i t i e s
of d a t a h e r e t o f o r e i n f e a s i b l e .
7 pp.

P-3562
U r b a n N o d e in t h e I n f o r m a t i o n
Network.
P. B a r a n , M. G r e e n b e r g e r .
A p r i l 1967.
A d i s c u s s i o n of the t e c h n o l o g i e s of c o m ­
p u t e r s a n d c o m m u n i c a t i o n s in t e r m s o f t h e
m a j o r c o n t e m p o r a r y p r o b l e m s of c i t i e s .
S ince the c o m m u n i c a t i o n of i n f o r m a t i o n
m ay well bo the m o s t c e n t r a l a n d most
v i t a l f u n c t i o n of a n u r b a n c o m p l e x , t he
i n f o r m a t i o n - b a s e d t e c h n o l o g i e s c o u l d be
t he n e x t m a j o r f o r c e in t h e e v o l u t i o n of
the city.
Computer-communication tech­
nology could foster a widening, sparser

354
-84-

d i s t r i b u t i o n of peo p l e aro u n d the world,
w ith u r b a n p o c k e t s of a c t i v e p e r s o n a l
i n t eraction among intellectual, c o m m e r ­
cial, industrial, and political leaders.
S u c h u r b a n c e n t e r s w o u l d be s o u r c e s of
i d e a s and t o p - l e v e l d e c i s i o n s and would
s e r v e a s i n p u t n o d e s in n a t i o n a l a n d
t r a n s n a t i o n a l inform a t i o n networks.
2 5 pp.
Bibliog.

P-3628
E n g i n e e r i n g and P u b l i c Affairs:
S ome D i r e c t i o n s for E d u cation and Re­
search.
E. H. P l u m .
J u l y 1967.
W h e n m an a b d i c a t e s t h e r e s p o n s i b i l i t y f o r
c o n t r o l l i n g technology, the modern ci t y
is the most conspicuous, but not the only,
evidence.
The p r o b l e m i s to c r e a t e m e a n ­
ingful, systematic interaction between
p eople and technology.
Educational pro­
grams combining technology and public af­
fairs would provide leadership for inter­
d i s c i p l i n a r y p r o j e c t s to f i n d s o l u t i o n s .
P r o j e c t s u g g e s t i o n s and a d e s c r i p t i o n of
the Princeton University program are i n ­
cluded.
13 pp.

P— 3668
A Pro p o s a l for Wired C i t y T e l e ­
vision.
H. J. b a r n e t t , ts. A. G r e e n ­
berg.
A u g u s t 1967.
A national system of wired city television
i s p r o p o s e d as a m e a n s of p r o v i d i n g pro­
grams that educate, inform, and entertain
s p e c i a l i z e d i n t e r e s t s as well as a p p e a l
to mas s tastes.
Additional c h a n n e l s would
b e a v a i l a b l e for e d u c a t i o n a l t e l e v i s i o n ,
pay-TY, poli t i c a l uses, c r e d i t purchases,
a n d an a l m o s t i n d e f i n i t e l i s t of o t h e r
functions.
Th e c o s t w o u l d be low, a nd the
s y s t e m w ould free the p r e s e n t TV s p e c t r u m
for other vital private and governmental
purposes.
37 pp .

P-3673
Seven Models of Urban D e v elop­
ment:
A Structural Comparison.
I. S.
Lowry.
S e p t e m b e r 196 7 .
A t h e o r y of t he u r b a n l a n d m a r k e t i s p r e ­
s e n t e d in p a r a d i g m a s a p o i n t o f d e p a r t u r e
f o r a n a l y s i s of a l t e r n a t i v e models.
Seven
s p e c i f i c m o d e l s of u r b a n s p a t i a l o r g a n i s a ­
t i o n a r e r e v i e w e d in d e t a i l , i n c l u d i n g
o n e s t h a t f o c u s on p a t t e r n s o f l a n d u s e ,
land-use succession, location, migration,
m a r k e t supply, and market demand.
47 pp.

P-373U
C o m p u t e r S i m u l a t i o n in U r b a n
Research.
J. P. C r e c i n e .
November
1967.
R e s t r i c t i n g the t e r m " c o m p u t e r s i m u l a t i o n ’
*
to mode l s which are s u r r o g a t e s for
re a l - w o r l d urban processes, this paper




d i s c u s s e s t h o s e d e v e l o p e d f o r ur.o in t w o
m a j o r a r e a s of e m e r g i n g r e s e a r c h :
(1)
urban growth, development, and spatial
l o c a t i o n ; (2) l o c a l g o v e r n m e n t d e c i s i o n ­
making.
It also considers two hybrid
e f f o r t s a i m e d at s i m u l a t i n g a s y n t h e s i s
of economic, political, and a d m i n i s t r a ­
t i v e e l e m e n t s of an u r b a n s y s t e m .
The
f u t u r e in t he a r e a of d e c i s i o n m a k i n g a p ­
pears bright, since progress is being
m a d e in t h e t e c h n o l o g y f o r t r a n s l a t i n g
a bst r a c t ideas, concepts, and s y m bols
into computer language.
I n t h e a r e a of
urban research, however, a lack of data
is l i m i t i n g d e v e l o p m e n t .
27 pp.

P-3736
A N ot So C o m m o n V i e w o f t he
Ground Transportation Problem.
M.
Wohl.
N o v e m b e r 19 6 7 .
T h i s P a p e r s u g g e s t s (1) t h a t t h e g r o u n d
t r a n s p o r t a t i o n p r o b l e m , the p o r t i o n of the
t r i p p a c k a g e d u r i n g w h i c h the t r a v e l e r is
n o t a c t u a l l y airbcvrne, is c a p a b l e o f s i g ­
n i f i c a n t i m p r o v e m e n t if t h e i n t e r a c t i o n of
the m u l t i p l e s o c i o e c o n o m i c f a c t o r s a f f e c t ­
i n g i t a r e c o n s i d e r e d a n d (2) t h a t t h e
r e s p o n s i b i l i t y for t h i s s t u d y and a n a l y s i s
is p r o p e r l y the b u r d e n of the air ind u s t r y .
Av a i l a b l e data s u p port the theo r y that a
m u l t i p o r t c o m p l e x s e r v e d b y V/'STOL t y p e
a i r c r a f t (for t r i p s u p t o 8 0 0 m i l e s ) w o u l d
be a m o r e p r a c t i c a l a n d s a t i s f a c t o r y s o l u ­
t i o n to p r e s e n t a n d f u t u r e p r o b l e m s of
air p o r t access, i n n e r - t e r m i n a l delays, and
aircraft queueing delays than rapid-transit
s y s t e m s b e t w e e n c e n t r a l a i r p o r t s and d o w n ­
town centers.
2 6 pp.
Refs.

P-3769-1
C o m m u n i c a t i o n s G o a l s for Los
Angeles:
A W o r k i n g Pap e r for the Los
Angeles Goals Program.
L. G. C h e s l e r ,
H. S. D o r d i c k .
J u n e 1968.
A t e c h n o l o g i c a l and c o s t a n a l y s i s of t h r e e
m o d e s of TV t r a n s m i s s i o n — U H F , V H F , and
C a b l e - - p r e p a r e d for the Los Angeles G o als
P r o g r a m o f the C i t y P l a n n i n g D e p a r t m e n t .
R e s e a r c h i n d i c a t e s t h a t 100 p e r c e n t of
g h e t t o r e s i d e n t s use T V as a n e w s s o u r c e ,
w h i l e n e w s p a p e r s a r e u s e d by o n l y 3 p e r c e n t
as a news source; therefore, a program
u s i n g TV to c o m m u n i c a t e w i t h t h e g h e t t o
s h o u l d be i n s t i t u t e d i m m e d i a t e l y , f i r s t ,
for i n t r a - g h e t t o c o m m u n i c a t i o n , and,
ultimately, through a city built and oper­
ated network.
On the b a s i s of f l e x i b i l i t y
and, in r e a l i t y , f e a s i b i l i t y , a C a b l e s y s ­
t em s e e m s the m o s t p r o m i s i n g b e c a u s e o f
it s a b i l i t y to a d a p t t o o t h e r e d u c a t i o n a l
needs.
3 7 pp.
Refs.

P-3776
A p p r o a c h e s to D e a l i n g
Motor Vehicle Air Pollution:

with
Report

355
-85-

o f t h e S u b p a n e l on T r a n s p o r t a t i o n
S y s t e m R e q u i r e m e n t s of the P a n e l on
Electrically Powered Vehicles.
E. H.
Blum.
D e c e m b e r 19 6 7 .
k d iscussion of the non t e c h n o l o g i c a l as­
p e c t s of a i r p o l l u t i o n .
T h i s report, one
of si x s u b p a n e l reports, trac e s the nature
and extent of the control problem and
p r o b l e m s in p o l i c y a n a l y s i s ; d e s c r i b e s t h e
s t r u c t u r e of the s y s t e m a t i c a n a l y s i s t ha t
is f o l l o w e d ; d e v e l o p s e v a l u a t i o n c r i t e r i a ;
examines policy constraints, criteria for
c o n t r o l a n d costs, and a d m i n i s t r a t i v e and
e c o n o m i c c onsiderations; and deve l o p s two
quanti t a t i v e models.
It examines a broad
spectrum of alternatives and considers
t h e i r i m p a c t on the n a t i o n a l e c o n o m y , the
d i s a d v a n t a g e d , a n d t he poor.
Uncertain­
ties and their policy implications are
examined.
5 6 pp.

P-38Q1
Televised Ombudsman.
K. A.
A r c h i b a l d , B. O a g d i k i a n .
H ay 1968.
P r o p o s a l for a TV p r o g r a m on w h i c h p e o p l e
in poverty areas could voice specific
c o m p l a i n t s with which the program would
c o n f r o n t the r e sponsible public or pri v a t e
a g e ncies, request action, and f ollow up
afterward.
A s k i l l e d a n d f l u e n t MC, w h o
is cl e a r l y not representative of e s t a b ­
l i s h e d a u t h o r i t y , w o u l d be e s s e n t i a l t o
p r o tect the p rogram from b e c o m i n g dull,
repetitious, maudlin, irrational, or de­
s t r u c t i v e l y hostile.
Community groups
s u c h a s t h e S o n s of W a t t s o r V e n i c e G a n g b u s t e r s c o u l d be u s e d to c h e c k o ut c o m ­
p l a i n t s a n d the r e s u l t i n g a c t i o n or i n ­
action.
Possible formats range from fair­
ly e l a b o r a t e d o c u m e n t a r i e s to w a l k i n g the
street with a handheld camera and asking
passersby, "What*s bugging you?"
12 pp.

P-3803
A Dynamic Model of Urban Struc­
ture.
J. P. C r e c i n e .
H a r c h 1968.
A d e s c r i p t i o n o f t h e l a t e s t v e r s i o n of
the T i m e - O riented Metropolitan Model
(T.O.M.M.). The model depicts the in­
t e r a c t i o n o f v a r i a b l e s in an u r b a n s y s t e m .
T h r e e c l a s s e s of v a r i a b l e s ar e included:

P-3868
C o n t r i b u t i o n s to t h e A n a l y s i s
of U r b a n Problems:
A S e l e c t i o n of
P a p e r s f rom the Rand W o r k s h o p on Urba n
P r o g r a m s , D e c e m b e r 18, 1 9 6 7 - J a n u a r y
12, 1 9 6 8 .
E d i t e d b y A. H. P a s c a l .
A u g u s t 1968.
A c o m p i l a t i o n of f o u r t e e n p a p e r s a n a l y z i n g

d ll

t iX O y e f t O u S

e m p lo y m e n t

S e c to r,

uu

Sudog

e n o u s c o m m e r c i a l e m p l o y m e n t sector, and a
h ousehold or population sector.
The c ity
is d i v ided into a disjoint and e x h a u s t i v e
s e t o f a r e a l u n i t s in w h i c h v a r i a b l e s a r e
located spatially.
S u p e r imposed is a
transportational system providing access­
ibilities between various activities within
t h e a r e a units.
In the f o r m a l m o d e l o f
T . O . M . M . , the n u m b e r of a r e a l u n i t s i s
v a r i a b l e a n d in p r a c t i c e w o u l d g e n e r a l l y
b e d e t e r m i n e d b y c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s of the
urban area involved and data availability.
6 1 pp.

P-3827
S o m e C o m m e n t s on U r b a n R e s e a r c h .
S. G e n e n s k y .
A p r i l 1968.
A d i s c u s s i o n of R A N D r e s e a r c h e f f o r t s for
t h e C i t y of New York, w i t h s o m e p r o s a n d
c o n s of i n v o l v e m e n t in an u r b a n p r o g r a m .
C o n t r a c t s with the City's Fire Department,
Health Services Administration, Housing
Development Administration and Police De­
p a r t m e n t form the b a s i s of c o n t i n u i n g r e ­
s e a r c h e f f o r t s for RAND.
However, re­
s e a r c h w i t h i n t h e u r b a n s p h e r e c a n be
d i f f i c u l t d u e to (1) t h e p o l i t i c a l s t r u c ­
t u r e d d e m a n d f o r i m m e d i a t e r e s u l t s ; (2)
u n f a v orable criticism from premature
p u b l i c e x p o s u r e ; (3) p o s s i b l e s u b p o e n a of
c o n f i d e n t i a l m a t e r i a l s ; (4) d i v i d e d a u t h o r ­
i t y ; a n d (5) m u l t i p l e - s o u r c e f u n d i n g p r o b ­
lems.
T h e a d v a n t a g e s , c e n t e r i n g in t h e
o p p o r t u n i t y to s o l v e m a j o r u r b a n p r o b l e m s
and implement solutions, are seen as out­
wei g h i n g the d isadvantages.
pp.




Ford Foundation, the t h r e e - w e e k Ran d wor k ­
s h o p w a s intended to d e f i n e and i n i t i a t e
a l o n g - t e r m r e s e a r c h p r o g r a m on u r b a n
p o l i c y i s s u e s a nd to i n t e r e s t o t h e r o r g a n ­
i z a t i o n s in u n d e r t a k i n g r e l a t e d work.
P artic i p a n t s included scientists, scholars.
F e d e r a l and NYC officials, and Rand staff
members.
They were i n v i t e d to p r e p a r e
preliminary papers recommending program
initiatives, research, and experiments
in the program areas of education, health
services, we l f a r e / p u b l i c a s s i s tance, jobs
and m a npower training, housing and urban
planning, p olice s e r v i c e s and p ublic order,
and municipal finance and administration.
P a p e r s w e r e a l s o i n v i t e d on n o n p r o g r a m
issues, such as r a c e r e l a t i o n s and b u r e a u c ­
racy.
T h e selected p a p e r s i n c l u d e d in this
c o m pilation are grouped under four h e a d ­
ings:
(1) u r b a n p e r s p e c t i v e s , (2) m u n i c ­
i p a l o b j e c t i v e s a n d o r g a n i z a t i o n , (3) u r b a n
p o v e r t y , (4) u r b a n v i o l e n c e a n d p u b l i c
order.
190 pp.
(Se e a l s o R M - 5 6 0 3 - R C . )
(EB)

P-3877
New D i r e c t i o n s f o r P a s s e n g e r
Demand Analysis and Forecasting.
G.
K r a f t , M. W o h l .
J u n e 1968.
A d i s c u s s i o n of the s i g n i f i c a n t i s s u e s i n ­
v o l v e d in d e v e l o p i n g a m o d e l t h a t w i l l
h el p to e v a l u a t e a l t e r n a t i v e t r a n s p o r t
p r o g r a m s i n terras o f t h e c h a n g e s t h e y m a y
e v o k e o r to j u s t i f y a p r o g r a m on t h e b a s i s
of r e l i a b l e f o r e c a s t s of t he v a l u e s a s ­
sociated with the project.
The demand

356
- 8 6 -

ftodel d e s c r i b e d , i n c o r p o r a t i n g d i r e c t a n d
c r o s s - e l a s t i c i t i e s , p e r m i t s bo t h the t otal
a m o u n t of t r i p m a k i n g a n d the s p l i t a m o n g
■ odes to b e a l t e r e d a s t h e t r i p p r i c e o r
t r a v e l t i m e fo r a n y m o d e i s c h a n g e d , a n d
t r e a t s t r i p d e c i s i o n s a s s i m u l t a n e o u s and
interrelated.
A s a t i s f a c t o r y model must
also recognize that travel decisions are
d e r i v e d f r o m a l a r g e n u m b e r of s o c i o e c o ­
no m i c factors and that there are a rela­
t i v e l y l a rge number of a l t e r n a t i v e s a v a i l ­
a b l e to t h e t r a v e l e r in t e r m s o f p u r p o s e ,
mode, time, route, price, etc.
In a d d i ­
t i o n , for f o r e c a s t i n g p u r p o s e s , the model
must interrelate demand and price/perfor­
m a n c e f u n c t i o n s and r e c o g n i z e the i n t e r ­
a c t i o n b e t w e e n t h e i n c r e a s e in t r i p m a k i n g
a s s e r v i c e i m p r o v e s a n d th e b u i l d - u p of
c o n g e s t i o n a n d r e d u c t i o n in s e r v i c e a s the
volume increases.
Lastly, the long-term
i n f l u e n c e o f c h a n g e s in t r a n s p o r t a t i o n
f a c i l i t i e s on s o c i a l a n d e c o n o m i c d e v e l o p ­
m e n t in a n u r b a n a r e a s h o u l d n o t b e iynored.
Mor e i n t e n s i v e e f f o r t in dat a c o l ­
l e c t i o n in t h i s a r e a i s r e q u i r e d .
61 pp.

P-3906
A Framework for Planning Social
Services.
A. FI. P a s c a l .
A u g u s t 1968.
An o u t l i n e of a p l a n n i n g p r o c e s s for s o ­
c i a l s e r v i c e s , p r e p a r e d for t h e T a s k F o r c e
on t h e O r g a n i z a t i o n of S o c i a l Serv i c e s ,
D e p a r t m e n t of Health, rducation, and Wel­
fare.
T h e f i r s t s t e p is t o a d o p t a c l a s s ­
i fication scheme indicating where resouccea l l o c a t i o n d e c i s i o n s m ust be m a d e p o l i t i ­
c a l l y and w h e r e th e y o u g h t to be m a d e t e c h ­
nically.
Functions could be distinguished
by m a j o r c l a s s e s , b y t a r g e t g r o u p s , by s o ­
c i e t a l o b j e c t i v e s , o r b y a c o m b i n a t i o n of
these classifications.
O n c e r e s o u r c e s have
b e e n a l l o c a t e d , s t a n d a r d s to m e a s u r e a c h i e v e ­
m e n t a n d a m e t h o d fo r a t t a i n i n g t h e g o a l c a n
be determined.
There arc four general in­
stit u t i o n a l arrangements for furthering a
s o cial purpose:
(1) ’ e g o v e r n m e n t d i s t r i ­
’
’
h
b u t e s g e n e r a l i z e d pu r c h a s i n g power.
(2)
The government provides a particular social
service.
(3) An o u t s i d e i n s t i t u t i o n p r o ­
vides a given service under government
contract.
(4) T h e g o v e r n m e n t p r o v i d e s
s c r i p o r i d e n t i f i c a t i o n car,Is t h a t a r e
u s e d to p u r c h a s e g o o d s o r s e r v i c e s f r o m
competing offerors.
rach d e l i v e r y system
h a s a d v a n t a g e s , but t h e l a s t m e t h o d , w h e r e
applicable, goes farthest toward increas­
ing e fficiency through c o m p e tition while
m a i n t a i n i n g i n d i v i d u a l free^on'.
Although
each syst e m will have its own crite r i a
f or e v a l u a t i o n , s u f f i c i e n t f e e l b a c k must be
p r o v i d e d to a l l o w f o r s e l f - c r i t i c i s m a n d
a d a p t i v e behavior.
11 pp.

P-3918
the

An E c o n o m i c R e - F v a l u a t i o n o f
Proposed Los Angeles Rapid Transit




System.
A. C a r l i n , H. W o h l .
Septem­
ber 1968.
E x a m i n a t i o n of t h e e c o n o m i c j u s t i f i c a t i o n
for a rail t r a n s i t s y s t e m for Los A n g e l e s
a s p r e s e n t e d in t h e F i n a l P e ^ o r t o f t h e
Southern C a l i fornia Rapid Transit District.
T h e syst e m , c o v e r i n g 90 r o u t e - m i l e s , would
be f i n a n c e d by a s a l e s t a x j f o n e - h a l f of
o n e p e r c e n t o v e r t h e n e x t 50 y e a r s .
The
a u t h o r s c o n c l u d e t h a t t h e p r o j e c t is e c o ­
n o m i c a l l y unjustified, as c o s t s will e x ­
ceed benefits.
Through economically un­
s o u n d c j n c o p t i o n a n d p r o c e d u r e , t h e F i nal
Re£ort o v e r e s t i m a t e s the number of users
on which e c o n o m i c c a l c u l a t i o n s are based;
o v e r s t a t e s a n n u a l b e n e f i t s b y $8 0 m i l l i o n ;
and claims excessive ’ ommunity benefits."
’
c
R e c o m p u t a t i o n to a d j u s t the f o r e g o i n g
e r r o r s reveals that annual c o s t s would
e x c e e d b e n e f i t s b y $ 1 5 m i l l i o n in 1 9 8 0 .
T h e r a i l t r a n s i t p r o p o s a l s h o u l d be r e ­
v i e w e d in c o m p a r i s o n w i t h o t h e r p o s s i b l e
t r a n s p o r t a t i o n i m p r o v e m e n t s , s u c h as e x ­
p r e s s b u s s e r v i c e a l o n g s p e c i a l r o a d s to
provide direct-connection feeder service;
addit i o n a l cross-town freeways; and substi­
t u t i o n of " f r e e - e n t r y ” t a x i s e r v i c e for the
p r e s e n t f r a n c h i s e type.
19 pp .
(CD)

P-3931
Medical Care Cost Incentives:
S o m e Q u e s t i o n s and A p p r o a c h e s for
Research.
I. L e v e s o n .
S e p t e m b e r 196R.
A d i s c u s s i o n of the p r o b l e m s a n d r a n g e of
a l t e r n a t i v e s a v a i l a b l e for d e v e l o p i n g in­
centives for medical care cost reduction.
T h e m a j o r p r o b l e m s w i l l be t o d e v e l o p
a d e q u a t e d e f i n i t i o n s o f t h e o u t p u t of
m e d i c a l c a r e a n d m e a s u r e m e n t s for th e
v a l u e o f t h e attribute.*; o f a l t e r n a t i v e s .
I n c e n t i v e s to c o n t r o l c o s t s c a n v a r y b y
t y p e , o b j e c t , s t a g e in t h e p r o d u c t i o n
pro c e s s , or lev e l of o p e r a t i o n s .
An.
u n d e r s t a n d i n g of t h e s e d i f f e r e n c e s a n d
their possible combinations clarifies
the r a n g e of a l t e r n a t i v e s .
Some sugges­
t i o n s for s p e c i f i c a r e a s for r e s e a r c h
include cost studies, productivity ana l ­
ysis, o r g a n i z a t i o n a l s t r u c t u r e a n a l y s i s ,
capital allocation studies, alternative
m e t h o d s of p r o d u c t i o n , a nd t he e f f e c t of
pricing policies.
21 pp .
Refs.
(K J P )

P-3945
H ow M u c h I s G o o d H e a l t h W o r t h ?
V. D. T a y l o r .
J u l y 196 9 .
A c o n s u m e r d e m a n d or s u b j e c t i v e v a l u e a p ­
p r o a c h to g o v e r n m e n t - p r o v i d e d o r - s u b s i ­
dized medical services.
The usual co s t /
b e n e f i t o r h u m a n c a p i t a l a p p r o a c h is i r ­
r e l e v a n t to h u m a n p r e f e r e n c e s a n d a c t i o n s
of d e c i s i o n m a k e r s .
For the nonpoor,
g o v e r n m e n t a c t i o n s h o u l d g e n e r a l l y be
r e s t r i c t e d to w h a t c o n s u m e r s c a n n o t o b t a i n
elsewhere:
r e g u l a t o r y a c t i o n s , c o n t r o l of
i n f e c t i o u s d i s e a s e s a n d p o l l u t i o n , a i d to

357
-87-

b io m e d i c a l research.
Governnent activi­
t i e s a r e w o r t h wh a t p e o p l e w o u l d be w i l l ­
i n g t o p a y f o r them-, S e r v i c e s t o t h o s e
v h o c o u l d n o t p a y a re j u s t i f i e d by the
w i l l i n g n e s s o f t h e n o n p o o r t o p a y for
then.
G i v i n g the poor what t hey want in­
stead of what some index says they need
w o u l d b e t t e r s e r v e the total p e r c e i v e d
well-being, since present programs arouse
hostilityD i r e c t m o n e y t r a n s f e r s to the
po o r cost far less to del i v e r tha n medical
s e r v i c e s and would p r o b a b l y c o n t ribute
■ore t o i m p r o v i n g h e a l t h t h r o u g h b e t t e r
living conditions.
3 8 pp.
Refs.
(MB)

P-3962
Methodology for Determining
Traffic Safety Priorities;
A Colli­
s ion Predi c t i o n Model.
B. F. G o e l l e r .
F e b r u a r y 1969.
A n i m p o r t a n t e l e m e n t in t h e t r a f f i c s a f e t y
d e c i s i o n f r a m e w o r k is a p r e d i c t i o n m o d e l
t h a t c a n i n t e r r e l a t e t h e full r a n g e of
alternative safety-system components and
predict their performance quantitatively.
D i s c u s s i o n f o c u s e s on t h e p r e - a c c i d e n t
s t a g e of a p r e l i m i n a r y m o d e l in w h i c h
four phases are identified:
(1) p r e d i s ­
position, concerned with the d r i v e r ’
s
b i o g r a p h y a n d f a c t o r s in h i s a c c i d e n t
b a c k g r o u n d ; (2) i n i t i a t i o n , c o n c e r n e d
w it h t he d r i v e r ' s v u l n e r a b i l i t y r o l e — the
e x p e c t e d n u m b e r of haz a r d s he i ncurs in
a g i v e n m i l e o f d r i v i n g ; (3) j u x t a p o s i ­
tio n , n a m e l y , p r e d i c t i o n of t h e n u m b e r of
i m m i n e n t colli s i o n s e x p ected from the vul­
n e r a b i l i t i e s , a n d (4) e v a s i o n .
The last
p h a s e is a nalyzed with r e s p e c t to con­
f r o n t a t i o n a n d c o u n t e r m e a s u r e s to p r e v e n t
collision.
The vulnerability concept pro­
v i des a useful and m e a s u r a b l e i n dex of
d r i v i n g errors, unsafe b ehavior, and i m ­
pairment.
Marked correlation has been
shown between a driver's vulnerability
rate and his accident record.
3 6 pp.
Refs.
(KB)

P-3968
Population Policy, Welfare,
and Regional Development.
I. S. L o w r y .
N o v e m b e r 1968.
An e x a m i n a t i o n of some fea s i b l e o b j e c t i v e s
a n d m e t h o d s to c o n t r o l p o p u l a t i o n g r o w t h .
T h e e f f o r t s of p o o r r e g i o n s t o s t i m u l a t e
a g r o w t h in a g g r e g a t e i n c o m e to r e t a r d
t h e r a p i d g r o w t h of p o p u l a t i o n h ave b e e n
mostly unsuccessful.
S i n c e an o p t i m u m
l e v e l of p o p u l a t i o n e x i s t s for a n y r e g i o n
( i l l u s t r a t e d b y c o n s t r u c t i o n of l a b o r f o r c e
and population m o d els), effective methods
of p o p u l a t i o n c o n t r o l must e n a b l e the
g r o w t h t o m a i n t a i n that level.
Methods
are considered which regulate the death
rate, t he b i r t h rate, a n d m i g r a t i o n .
The
la t t e r is feasible, viewed through 25-year
s i m u l a t i o n s of m i g r a t i o n e f f e c t s on p o p u l a ­




tion, and m a y be an a l t e r n a t i v e o r s u p p l e ­
m e n t to b i r t h c o n t r o l in r e d u c i n g t h e r a t e
of p o p u l a t i o n g r o w t h .
(Pre s e n t e d to t h e
C o n f e r e n c e on R e g i o n a l D e v e l o p m e n t P l a n ­
n i n g , P u e r t o R i c o , in M a r c h 1 9 6 7 . )
41 p p .
(BB)

P-3980
The Demand for N e i ghborhood
M e d i c a l Care.
I. L e v e s o n .
December
1968.
A st u d y of the demand for medical care.
T h e r o l e s of the f a c t o r s m o s t a f f e c t i n g
t h i s d e m a n d in g e n e r a l , a n d t h e d e m a n d
for urban neighborhood ambulatory medical
c a r e in p a r t i c u l a r , a r e h y p o t h e s i z e d an d
t h e n a n a l y z e d s t a t i s t i c a l l y in t e r m s of
the Q u e e n s b r i d g e Heal t h M a i n t e n a n c e Ser­
v i c e , a c l i n i c s e t up i n N o v e m b e r 1 9 6 1
for r e sidents of a housing p r o j e c t for
the elderly.
T h e s a m p l e c o n s i s t s of 1219
of the a p p r o x i m a t e l y 1400 r e s i d e n t s .
H ealth status, income, educat i o n , and
price variables (especially travel dis­
tance) a r e the m o s t p o w e r f u l d e t e r m i n a n t s
o f p a t t e r n s of m e d i c a l care.
Education
and i ncome are p ositively correlated.
When income and other variables are held
c o n s t a n t , e d u c a t i o n e n c o u r a g e s use of
c l i n i c services, and c o lor is not im p o r ­
tant.
On the whole, t h e r e a r e s u b s t a n ­
t i a l s o c i a l a nd e c o n o m i c b a r r i e r s to the
r e c e i p t o f a m b u l a t o r y c a r e e v e n w h e n it
is provided without charge at a c o nve­
nient location.
42 pp.
(LC)

P-4002
R e s e a r c h on N e w Y o r k C i t y ' s
Housing Problems.
I. S. L o w r y .
Decem­
b e r 1968.
A r e p o r t on t h e f i r s t n i n e m o n t h s o f R a n d * s
pro g r a m of r e search and p o l i c y a n a l y s i s for
New York City's Housing and D e v e l o p m e n t
Administration.
Most c i t y o f f i c i a l s per­
c eive four major housing problems:
not
e n o u g h h o u s i n g is b e i n g p r o d u c e d ; r e n t s
a n d p r i c e s in t h e u n c o n t r o l l e d i n v e n t o r y
a r e to o high; t he c o n t r o l l e d i n v e n t o r y is
b adly un d e r m a i n t a i n e d and the Ci t y ' s h o u s ­
ing stock is rapidly deteriorating; many
n e i g h b orhoods are r apidly det e r i o r a t i n g as
Negro and Puerto Rican ghettos expand and
m i d d l e c l a s s w h i t e s m o v e to t h e s u b u r b s .
R a n d wo r k has beg u n in t h r e e a r e a s :
(1)
g a t h e r i n g d a t a a n d i n f o r m a t i o n on h o u s i n g
i n v e n t o r y and urban r e newal p r o g r a m s o p e r ­
a t i n g in the c i t y to s u p p o r t the i m p l e m e n ­
t a t i o n of a p l a n n i n g , p r o g r a m m i n g , b u d g e t ­
ing s y s t e m g r o u p e d by t h e i n c o m e s of t h e
f a m i l i e s the progr a m s are des i g n e d to
s e r v e ; (2) g a t h e r i n g c o s t a n d b e n e f i t dal-a
on p u b l i c l y - a s s i s t e d h o u sing p rograms; and
(3) s t u d y i n g h o u s i n g a n d n e i g h b o r h o o d d e ­
terioration.
In a l l t h r e e a r e a s , t h e b a s i c
barrier to policy analysis and program
e v a l u a t i o n is l a c k of c u r r e n t a nd c o m p r e ­

358
-8 8 -

h e n s i v e d a t a anil o f a g e n e r a l m o d e l o f t h e
City's housing market.
T h e next few m o n t h s
s h o u l d he very f r u i t f u l in t e rms of new
d a t a w h i c h , in t u r n , w i l l b o h e l p f u l in
f o r m u l a t i n g the model.
9 pp.
(MJP)

P-40H0
Directed Res e a r c h C e n t e r s and
Public Problems.
D. J. A l e s c h .
Feb­
r u a r y 1969.
An e x a m i n a t i o n o f th e c h a n g i n g r o l e of the
directed research cen t e r s and their rele­
v a n c e in t h e s o l u t i o n o f p u b l i c p r o b l e m s .
T h e a c c e l e r a t i n g i n v o l v e m e n t b y the di­
rected research c e n t e r s in societal prob­
l e m s at t h e s t a t e a n d l o c a l l e v e l s u g g e s t s
t h a t i m m e d i a t e a t t e n t i o n be paid to d e v e l ­
o p i n g an a g e n d a f o r r e s e a r c h .
While con­
t i n u i n g t o work on s u b s t a n t i v e p r o b l e m s ,
a s u b s t a n t i a l p o r t i o n of the r e s e a r c h
e n e r g y m u s t be s h i f t e d to d e v i s i n g and
inst i t u t i o n a l i z i n g more adequate public
processes and institutions, particularly
for anticipating public policymaking.
The
e f f e c t i v e n e s s of d i r e c t e d r e s e a r c h c e n t e r s
w i l l d e p e n d upon t h e a n s w e r s to t h r e e q u e s ­
tions:
(1) C a n g o v e r n m e n t a n d d i r e c t e d r e ­
s e a r c h c e n t e r s s t a n d t h e i n i t i a l s h o c k of
i n v o l v e m e n t with one a n o t h e r ?
(2) C a n t h e
center?; m a n a g e t o b e b o t h i n n o v a t i v e a n d
practical?
(3) In w h a t w a y s c a n t h e c e n ­
t e r s he l p p u b l i c i n s t i t u t i o n s to b e c o m e
mo r e d y n a m i c than they are t o day?
5 pp.
(MJP)

P-H045
A S y s t e m s A n a l y t i c A p p r o a c h to
t h e E m p l o y m e n t P r o b l e m s of D i s a d v a n ­
t a g e d Youth.
S. J. C a r r o l l , A. H.
Pascal.
*iarch 1 9 6 9 .
A d i s c u s s i o n of t h e e m p l o y m e n t p r o b l e m s
of d i s a d v a n t a g e d youth and a d e s c r i p t i o n
of a m o d e l of y o u t h e m p l o y m e n t p r o s p e c t s .
P u b l i c con c e r n ov e r these p r oblems has
s p a w n e d a v a r i e t y of p r o g r a m s , r a n g i n g
from c o m p e n s a t o r y e d u c a t i o n through antid e l i n y u e n c y a nd a n t i - d r o p o u t , t o s k i l l
t r a i n i n g and job p l a c e m e n t p r o g r a m s .
P r o j e c t e v a l u a t i o n s a nd the c o s t / b e n e f i t
a n a l y s e s n e c e s s a r y for the d e s i g n of e f ­
f e c t i v e p r o g r a m p a c k a g e s c a n n o t bo c o n ­
d u c t e d u n t i l the c o m p l e x , d y n a m i c i n t e r ­
r e l a t i o n s h i p s that u nderlie youth behavior
and o p p o r t u n i t i e s , with all o f the m a n i ­
fold feedback loops, are understood.
This
i s a f i r s t s t e p in t h i s e f f o r t .
The con­
c e p t u a l m o d e l of t h e y o u t h e m p l o y m e n t
s i t u a t i o n c o n s i s t s of a set of s i m u l t a ­
n e o u s e q u a t i o n s that p r e d i c t the e c o n o m i c
p r o s p e c t s for an i n d i v i d u a l on the b a s i s
of his exper i e n c e s , tastes, abilities,
perceptions, and opportunities.
(Pre­
p a r e d f o r p r e s e n t a t i o n at a N A T O C o s t B e n e f i t A n a l y s i s S y m p o s i u m t o be h e l d a t
T h e H ague, J u l y 7-11, 1969.)
25 pp.
(MJP)




P-40U6
T h e C o n c e p t of a C o m m u n i t y
Information System To Mea s u r e the
Q u a l i t y of P u b l i c S e r v i c e s .
S. H.
Clarke.
F e b r u a r y 1969.
An o u t l i n e of a C o m m u n i t y I n f o r m a t i o n
S e r v i c e (CTS) t h a t w o u l d a l l o w t h e l a y m a n
to m a k e i n f o r m e d j u d g m e n t s r e g a r d i n g the
q u a l i t y of publ i c serv i c e s .
The operator
o f t h e C I S s h o u l d be a n e n t i t y o t h e r t h a n
the p u b l i c s e r v i c e and s h o u l d h a v e e n o u g h
p o w e r to o b t a i n t h e r e g u i r e d d a t a a n d
e n o u g h t e c h n i c a l c o m p e t a n c e t o m a k e it
u s e f u l to the c o m m u n i t y .
Data being
c o l l e c t e d would be a n a l y z e d a nd a d d i ­
t i o n a l data would be s p e c i f i e d a c c o r d i n g
t o t h e i r r e l e v a n c e in m e a s u r i n g p r e d e t e r ­
mined performance standards.
P e r i o d i c and
s p e c i a l r e p o r t s w o u l d be i s s u e d a s r e ­
quired.
Abuses of the system might in­
c l u d e i m p r o p e r use of c o n f i d e n t i a l i n f o r ­
mation, reaching ov e r l y hasty conclusions,
and s tifling w o rthwhile i nnovation and
experimentation.
H o w e v e r , t h e n e e d of
t he c o m m u n i t y to form better j u d g m e n t s
o u t w e i g h s the r i s k s i n v o l v e d .
5 pp.
(MJP)

P-4059
A Mix-of-Hodes Evaluation
Model for transportation Systems.
K. V. S m i t h .
May 1969.
A met h o d o l o g y for es t i m a t i n g the incre­
mental benefit.s/disbenefits and the bene­
f i t - c o s t r a t i o o f c h a n g e s in t h e t o t a l
mix of t r a n s p o r t s e r v i c e s a v a i l a b l e .
Benefits/disbenefits are compared along
m an y d i m e n s i o n s f r o m t h e v i e w p o i n t s of
users, op e ra t o r s , and the g en e r a l public.
An i m p o r t a n t d i s t i n c t i o n i s m a d e b e t w e e n
p r i m a r y d e m a n d (as f o r a n i n t e r c i t y f l i g h t )
and d e r i v e d d e m a n d ( t ravel to and from
the a i r p o r t s ) .
F r e e w a y t r a v e l is c o n s i d ­
ered a s e p a r a t e mode.
B e c a u s e of i t s
s t r a i g htforward a d d itive features, the
m o d e l c a n r e a d i l y be e x t e n d e d to i n c l u d e
c l a s s e s of users, and p e r h a p s a ful l n e t ­
w ork a n a l y s i s c a n be f o r m u l a t e d i n a p r o ­
gramming context.
(An e x p a n d e d v e r s i o n
a p p e a r s in RM-5B69.)
2 9 pp.
Refs.
(MW)

P-4079
N e w D e p a r t u r e s in S o c i a l S e r ­
vices.
H. P a s c a l .
A p r i l 1969.
Broadly defined, social services are t h o s e
noncash resources made available under
p u b l i c a u s p i c e s o r a s a r e s u l t of p u b l i c
f i n a n c i n g fo r t h e f u r t h e r a n c e o f s o c i e t y ' s
goals.
T h e s e g o a l s a r e the p r o t e c t i o n of
i n c o m p e t e n t s , th e i m p r o v e m e n t of c o n s u m e r
c h o i c e , t h e e n h a n c e m e n t of s o c i a l f u n c ­
tioning, the a d v ance of equal opportunity,
a nd the e s t a b l i s h m e n t of m i n i m u m mat e r i a l
adequacy.
O n c e the p o l i t i c a l p r o c e s s has
g e n e r a t e d d e c i s i o n s on t h e r e s o u r c e c o m ­
m i t m e n t s a n d the p r o g r a m s t hat fall u n d e r
each objective, the institutional a r r a n g e -

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a e n t f o r f u r t h e r i n g t h e g o a l c a n be s e l e c t e d
f r o m a m o n g the f o u r types:
government con­
tractor, individual benefits, and cash
transfers.
Individual b e nefits and cash
transfers have s u b stantial advantages
over the first t w o m e t h o d s in p r e s e r v i n g
free c h o i c e and in m a i n t a i n i n g e c o n o m i c
efficiency.
However, s i n c e the ind i v i d ­
ua l ized benefit approach would be a r a d i ­
c a l d e p a r t u r e in m a n y a r e a s , s u c h a s e d u ­
c a t i o n , a s e r i e s of d e m o n s t r a t i o n s of the
s y s t e m s h o u l d be c o n d u c t e d b e f o r e a n y
large-scale implementation.
12 pp .
(HJP)

P— 408 3
Some Projected Effects of Jet
N o i s e on R e s i d e n t i a l P r o p e r t y N e a r Los
A n g e l e s I n t e r n a t i o n a l A i r p o r t by 1970.
P. T. M c C l u r e .
A p r i l 1969.
A s t u d y o f the jet n o ise p r o b l e m and a
r e v i e w of r e s e a r c h in t h e field, w i t h
p a r t i c u l a r r e f e r e n c e t o th e e f f e c t on
residential property near Los Angeles In­
t e r n a t i o n a l A i r p o r t b y 1970.
T h e b e s t of
t he a l t e r n a t i v e s o l u t i o n s s e e m s to b e
large-scale land acquisition, although
the political, social, and financial ram i ­
f i c a t i o n s are immense.
If, f o r i n s t a n c e ,
t h e D e p a r t m e n t of A i r p o r t s w e r e to a c q u i r e
a l l o f t h e r e s i d e n t i a l p r o p e r t y in the
n o i s e c o n t o u r a r e a in 1 9 7 0, t h e c o s t
B o u l d b e a p p r o x i m a t e l y $1 b i l l i o n .
While
t o o m a n y h y p o t h e s e s r e m a i n t o be t e s t e d
t o f o r m u l a t e a d e f i n i t i v e pla n of r e m e ­
dial action, a proposed solution would in­
c l ude acquisition and r e zoning of the
p r o p e r t y b y the D e p a r t m e n t of A i r p o r t s in
su i t a b l y sized "blocks" for immediate
sale to private developers, any profits
to be pro-rated among the former owners.
A m o n g the a d v a n t a g e s of t h i s p l a n i s t hat
t h e o w n e r s w o u l d be r e l i e v e d o f m a n y o f
t h e p r o b l e m s a n d c o s t s i n v o l v e d in i n d i ­
v i d u a l sales.
163 pp.
Refs.
(MJP)

P-4108
T elevision and Ghetto Educa­
tion:
The Chicago Schools Approach.
R. B r e t z .
J u n e 1969.
An e v a l u a t i o n of the ITV c l u s t e r p r o g r a m ­
mi n g a p p r o a c h d e v e l o p e d in C h i c a g o , w i t h
e m p h a s i s on t h e u s e f u l n e s s of t h e p r o g r a m
i n p r o v i d i n g mat e r i a l to the c l a s s r o o m s
of ghet t o areas.
The Chicago public
s c h o o l s have moved toward a practical
s o l u t i o n to t h e p r o b l e m of i m p r o v i n g
ghetto schools through a very localized
use of i n s t r u c t i o n a l t e levision systems.
As a d i r e c t r e s u l t o f ITV, s t a f f m e m b e r s
o f p a r t i c i p a t i n g c l u s t e r s c h o o l s of C h i ­
cago report a significant improvement in
b o t h a t t i t u d e a n d a c h i e v e m e n t of the
a v e rage pupil.
M o r e o v e r , t e a c h e r s who
h a v e l i t t l e o r n o e x p e r i e n c e in w o r k i n g
with underprivileged children can bene­
fit g r e a t l y f rom t he i n - s e r v i c e t r a i n i n g




r e c e i v e d when o b s e r v i n g t e c h n i g u e s of
more experienced television instructors.
T h e s e and o t her a s p e c t s of c l u s t e r p r o g r a m ­
ming are compared with c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s of
the c e n t r a l pr o d u c t i o n a l t e r n a t i v e in
t e r m s of c o s t a s well a s s e r v i c e s .
Sug­
g e s t i o n s a re m a d e for the u r b a n s c h o o l of
the future.
17 p p .
Refs.
(KB)

P-4117
I n d i c a t o r s of the Eff e c t of Jet
N o i s e on t h e V a l u e of R e a l E s t a t e .
P. T. M c C l u r e .
J u l y 1969.
A n a n a l y s i s of t he e f f c c t of jet n o i s e on
residential property value as indicated
b y (1) m a r k e t v a l u e c h a n g e s — d e t e r m i n e d
thr o u g h a comp a r i s o n of the mean annual
v a r i a t i o n s , d u r i n g 1 9 5 5 - 1 9 6 7 , in s a l e
p r i c e s of s i n g l e - f a m i l y r e s i d e n c e s n e a r
Los Angeles International Airport with
n o i s e e x p o s u r e s u p t o 1 0 5 P N d B ; (2) c o s t
of i n s u l a t i n g s t r u c t u r e s a g a i n s t jet
n o i s e ; (3) c o s t o f a v i g a t i o n ( f l y o v e r )
e a s e m e n t s ; a n d (4) d a m a g e s s o u g h t i n a i r ­
port noise litigation.
The first three
i n d i c a t o r s are r e l a t e d to a h y p o t h e t i c a l
1 2 0 0 s q ft, s e v e n - r o o m , $ 2 4 , 0 0 0 s t u c c o
h o u s e e x p o s e d t o 1 00 P N d B .
The findings
w e r e t hat, for t h e h y p o t h e t i c a l house,
(1) p r o p e r t y v a l u e c h a n g e s art* i m t sifln i f i c a n t l y r e l a t e d to jet n o i s e e x p o s u r e ;
(2) i n s u l a t i o n w o u l d c o s t a b o u t $ 3 8 0 0 ;
(3) t h e a v i g a t i o n e a s e m e n t w o u l d c o s t
a b out $3400.
Litigation damages sought
a v e r a g e about $ 3 1,000 per home.
3 7 pp .
Refs.
(LC)

P-4118
Black Nationalism and Prospects
f o r V i o l e n c e in t h e G h e t t o .
G. J . •
Pauker.
J u n e 1969.
A n a s s e s s m e n t of t h e p o t e n t i a l f o r b l a c k
t e r r o r i s m in the United States.
T h e r e has
bee n a c c e l e r a t i o n in t he r e v o l u t i o n a r y p r o ­
cess among b l acks in the last 3 years,
a i d e d p a r t i c u l a r l y by C o m m u n i s t C h i n a .
While a black nationalist-revolutionary
m o v e m e n t m a y b e i m p r a c t i c a l in t h e U . S . ,
some ob s e r v e r s think that black t e r r o r i s m
i s i n e v i t a b l e if the b l a c k c o m m u n i t y ’
s
d e m a n d s a r e n ot met.
Special measures
a r e n e e d e d for the b e n e f i t of b l a c k v e t ­
er a n s of the Vi e t n a m War, not only because
j u s t i c e r e q u i r e s them, but t o c o u n t e r t he
i n f l u e n c e of t h e g h e t t o e n v i r o n m e n t to
which the veter a n s will return.
Measures
to d e t e r t hem f r o m l e n d i n g t h e i r s k i l l s
an d e n e r g y to e x t r e m i s m w o u l d b e useful.
The DOD's PROJECT TRANSITION, a voluntary
p r o g r a m for men with l ittle ser v i c e time
remaining, offers counseling, skill en­
hancement, education, and job placement.
H o w e v e r , ev e n g r e a t e r m e a s u r e s may be
required.
17 pp.
(EB)

360
-9 0 -

P-4129
An A n a l y s i s o f A l t e r n a t i v e
M e a s u r e s of T e n a n t B e n e f i t s of G o v e r n ­
ment Housing Programs with I]lustrative
C a l c u l a t i o n s from Public HousingE. 0.
O l s e n , J. R. P r e s c o t t .
N o v e m b e r 1 9 69.
A n e w m e a s u r e of t o t a l t e n a n t b e n e f i t i s
d e r i v e d w h ich is c o n s i s t e n t with the t h e ­
ory of c o n s u m e r cho i c e and the best a v a i l ­
a b l e e m p i r i c a l w ork on the d e m a n d c u r v e
for housing service.
Alternative exist­
i n g m e a s u r e s (which r e q u i r e less i n f o r m a ­
t i o n and c a l c u l a t i o n and w h i c h are, t h e r e ­
f o r e , l e s s c o s t l y t o use) a r e c o m p a r e d ,
with the resulting c o n c l u s i o n that good
e s t i m a t e s of t e n a n t b e n e f i t are p o s s i b l e
u s i n g m e a n d a t a for p r o j e c t s o r f o r t h e
p r o g r a m as a whole.
Other inferences can
be drawn from the sample:
Public housing
r e s u l t s in r o u g h l y 10 p e r c e n t i n c r e a s e in
r e a l i n c o m e w h i l e g i v i n g 18 p e r c e n t m o r e
housing service.
It is e s t i m a t e d that
a b o u t 60 p e r c e n t o f t h e b e n e f i t s o f p u b l i c
h o u s i n g to its t e n a n t s c o m e s from g r e a t e r
c o n s u m p t i o n of n o n - h o u s i n g g o o d s a n d a b o u t
40 p e r c e n t from gre a t e r h o u sing service.
T h e s e benef i t s vary i n v e r s e l y with family
i n c o m e an<3 d i r e c t l y w i t h f a m i l y s i z e .
21 p p.
Refs.
(MT)

P-4163
Environmental Simulation
T o o l in a M a r i n e W a s t e D i s p o s a l S t u d y
o f J a m a i c a Bay.
J. J. L e e n d e r t s e .
M a r c h 1970.
D e s c r i p t i o n of a m o d e l of f l u i d w a s t e d i s ­
c h a r g e s in an e s t u a r y i n v o l v i n g r e l a t i o n ­
s h i p s b e t w e e n the w a s t e load, the l o c a t i o n
o f d i s c h a r g e s , t h e d e g r e e of t r e a t m e n t , the
g e o m e t r y of the e s t u a r y , the f l o w in t h e
estuary, and the temperature.
Since pres­
ent c o m p u t a t i o n a l t e c h niques are inade­
q u a t e to d e a l w i t h t h e t h r e e - d i m e n s i o n a l
c o m p u t a t i o n s of f l u i d fl o w and t h e c o m ­
p l i c a t e d b o u n d a r i e s of e s t u a r i e s , v e r t i c a l
i n t e g r a t i o n o f t h e e q u a t i o n of m o t i o n a n d
c o n t i n u i t y is used to r e d u c e the p r o b l e m
to a t w o - d i m e n s i o n a l one.
The discrete
v a l u e s of the v a r i a b l e s a r e d e s c r i b e d on a
g ri d , u s i n g a s p a c e - s t a g g e r e d s c h e m e , in
which water levels and v e l o c i t i e s are de­
s c r i b e d at d i f f e r e n t g r i d p o i n t s .
Since
m a s s d e n s i t i e s a r e d e s c r i b e d at t he s a m e
l o c a t i o n as the water levels, t h e r e e x i s t s
i n t h e f o r m u l a , o p e r a t e d u p o n in t i m e , a
c e n t r a l l y l o c a t e d s p a t i a l d e r i v a t i v e for
t h e l i n e a r term.
Water levels and mass
d e n s i t i e s a r e c o m p u t e d on g r a p h i c a l d i s ­
p l a y s o f t h e o u t l i n e of t h e b a y w i t h g r i d
points.
12 pp.
Ref.
(See a l s o R M - 6 2 3 0 ,
D ~ 2 0 0 2 4 . ) (MT)

P-4217
Crime, Punishment, and P s ychi­
atry.
T. H a l l i n a n .
O c t o b e r 19 6 9 .
A R e v i e w of T h e C r i m e o f P u n i s h m e n t by
K a r l M e n n i n g e r , w h o s e b a s i c t h e s i s is t h a t




ps y c h i a t r y has more fu n c t i o n a l value w i t h ­
in t h e c r i m i n o l o g i c a l s y s t e m t h a n h a s b e e n
hitherto realized.
Wenninger’ suggested
s
r e f o r m s f o r o u r s y s t e m i n c l u d e (1) t r i a l s
w h i c h d e t e r m i n e t h e f a c t s of a c r i m e ; (2)
s e n t e n c e s of i n d e t e r m i n a t e c h a r a c t e r , to
b e d e c i d e d by p e n o l o g i s t s on t h e b a s i s o f
e a c h p r i s o n e r ' s r e a c t i o n to t r e a t m e n t ;
(3) d i a g n o s t i c c e n t e r s f o r t h e c r i m i n a l l y
i n c l i n e d ; (4) i n d u s t r i a l s c h o o l s f o r d e ­
l i n q u e n t m i n o r s ; a n d (5) g r e a t l y e x t e n d e d
p r e - r e l e a s e and p o s t - r e l e a s e programs.
T h e r e v i e w e r r e g r e t s l a c k of e x p a n s i o n of
these proposals and also finds i n c onsis­
t e n t M e n n i n j o r ’ s u p p o r t of a u t o m a t i c ,
s
p r e d e t e r m i n e d p e n a l t i e s with h i s a p p e a l
f or more se l e c t i v e t reatment of prisoners.
He a l s o g u e s t i o n s w h ether g r a n t i n g greater
a u t o n o m y t o p s y c h i a t r i s t s in t r e a t i n g
p r i s o n e r s will n e c e s s a r i l y b e t t e r the s y s ­
tem.
D e s p i t e t h e s e r e s e r v a t i o n s , the
a u t h o r fee l s t his b o o k may e v e n t u a l l y be
a ’ l a s s i c in i t s f i e l d . ” 8 pp.
’
c
(MT)

P-4234
The A n a l y s i s of R e s i d e n t i a l
Segregation.
A. H. P a s c a l .
October
1969.
A review of r e s i d e n t i a l segregation.
P e e l i n g mainly w i t h M a r k A m e r i c a n s ' h o u s ­
i n g , t h i s P a p e r c o n s i d e r s (1) w h y s e g r e ­
g a t i o n i s a n i m p o r t a n t t o p i c ; (2) t h e c u r ­
r e n t m a g n i t u d e o f s e g r e g a t i o n in A m e r i c a n
c i t i e s a n d r e c e n t t r e u d s ; - (3) t h e o r e t i c a l ,
e m p i r i c a l , a n d p o l i c y i s s u e s ; (4)' a n e w
m o d e l of h o u s i n g s e j r e g a t i o n .
Attitudinal
s e g r e g a t i o n is e n f o r c e d by w h i t e r a c i s m ,
abetted by black r acism and cla s s p r e j u ­
dice.
A r u dimentary model of residential
c h o i c e is d i s c u s s e d t h a t c a n a i d in e x ­
p l a i n i n g how s e g r e g a t i o n o riginates, since
it i n c o r p o r a t e s a racism variable.
There
is a lac k of k n o w l e d g e a b o u t t h e e f f e c t s
of s e g r e g a t i o n on o t h e r s o c i a l p h e n o m e n a
a s well, which c o m p o u n d s the p r o b l e m of
policymaking.
Various public policies
s h o u l d be a n a l y z e d t o d e t e r m i n e t h e i r
relat i v e m erits in a c h i e v i n g h o u s i n g i n t e ­
gration, and more fundamental a n alysis
s h o u l d be u n d e r t a k e n to d e t e r m i n e h o w a n d
why s e g r e g a t i o n e x i s t s a nd w h a t i t s social
i m p a c t s are.
Until then, l ittle can be
a c c o m p l i s h e d in h e a l i n g t he b r e a c h b e t w e e n
the two societies, M a c k and white.
5 4 pp.
Refs.
(EB)

P-4237
The I m p l i c a t i o n s of G e o g r a p h i c S p e c i f i c i t y f o r Air P o l l u t i o n A b a t e ­
ment Strategy.
A. C a r l i n .
October
1969.
A r e v i e w o f a p r e s e n t a t i o n b y R. E. K o h n
a t t he S y m p o s i u m on the D e v e l o p m e n t o f
A i r Q u a l i t y S t a n d a r d s in L o s A n g e l e s i n
O c t o b e r 1969.
Professor K o h n ’ discussion
s
of a i r p o l l u t i o n a b a t e m e n t s t r a t e g y c o u l d

361
-91-

b e e x p a n d e d by c o n s i d e r i n g an a d d i t i o n a l
strategy wherein each pollution control
authority determines which air quality
s t a n d a r d s a r e exceeded, e s t a b l i s h e s pro­
g r e s s i v e l y s m a ller annual limits for th e
e m i s s i o n of c o r r e s p o n d i n g p o l l u t a n t s by
specified categories of emitters until
t h e d e s i r e d ai r s t a n d a r d s a r e met, a n d
then auctions off permits c orresponding
to th e s e limits.
This approach appears
to offer significant advantages over
e i t h e r s t r a t e g y d i s c u s s e d by Kohn, if the
a s s u m p t i o n o f the g e o g r a p h i c - s p e c i f i c i t y
p r o b l e m (that e m i s s i o n s f r o a all s o u rces,
r e g a r d l e s s o f t h e i r l o c a t i o n in t h e a i r ­
shed, h a v e eq u a l e f f e c t on air q u a l i t y
at a r e c e p t o r point) is i g n o r e d .
If con­
sidered, then r e s t ricted a u c t i o n s with
m i n i m u m b i d s e q u a l to t h e c o m p u t e d e m i s ­
sion charges for each district and emis­
sion limit would appear optimum.
6 pp.
(EB)

P-V250
P u b l i c Ord e r S t u d i e s in New
York City.
S. w i l d h o r n .
November
1969.
A p r e s e n t a t i o n o n R a n d N I C r e s e a r c h at an
OBSA session, this Paper desc r i b e s Rand
police studies, the minority recruitment
s t u d y in p a r t i c u l a r .
The findings:
Dis­
p r o p o r t i o n a t e l y f ewer n o n w h i t e s a p p l y to
be c o m e New York policemen, and more drop
o u t a t e a c h s t a g e of t h e p r o c e s s .
Minority
youths, unlike their white counterparts,
a r e m o s t a t t r a c t e d to p o l i c e wo r k b y i t s
service aspects.
S t a r t i n g s a l a r y was
u n d e r e s t i m a t e d b y 11 p e r c e n t .
The y were
n o t a w a r e that s o m e r e q u i r e m e n t s c a n be
o b t a i n e d after p a s sing the examination.
Sending a questionaire drew more response
from nonwhites.
Recommendations:
(1)
NYCPD should have a separate recruiting
budget, with a c i v i l i a n nonwhite as di r e c ­
t o r , (2) p u b l i c i t y s h o u l d e m p h a s i z e t h e
appeals and supply the information indi­
c a t e d b y t h e f i n d i n g s , (3) N Y C P D s h o u l d
en c o u r a g e e fforts of n o n w h i t e police
o r g a n i z a t i o n s in m i n o r i t y c o m m u n i t i e s ,
a n d (U) a n i n f o r m a t i o n s y s t e m s h o u l d b e
se t up to trace e a c h a p p l i c a n t from first
c o n t a c t to a p p o i n t m e n t or r e j e c t i o n .
13 p p .
(MW)

P-!J2 5 6
Can Public C o n s t r u c t i o n and
Re h a b i l i t a t i o n I n c r e a s e the Q u a n t i t y
of H o u s i n g S e r v i c e C o n s u m e d b y L o w - I n come Families?
E. 0. O l s e n .
December
1969.
This paper demonstrates, via a demand
t h e o r y o f Muth,. t h a t p u b l i c c o n s t r u c t i o n
and r e h a b i l i t a t i o n have no e f f e c t on the
l o n g run e q u i l i b r i u m g u a n t i t y of h o u s i n g
service.
T h i s t h e o r y m a k e s c l e a r t h a t it
is the subsidy which accompanies public




c o n s t r u c t i o n t h a t r e s u l t s in g r e a t e r c o n ­
s u m p t i o n of hous i n g .
Under simple assump­
tions concerning human behavior and market
st r u c t u r e , the a u t h o r d e d u c e s the r e a c t i o n s
of b u y e r s a n d s e l l e r s of h o u s i n g s e r v i c e
t o a g o v e r n m e n t p r o g r a m in w h i c h d w e l l i n g
units are purchased, destroyed, and rebuilt
or r e h a b i l i t a t e d and then marketed by the
government without subsidy.
If this public
a c t i o n is u n a n t i c i p a t e d , t h e n t h e r e w i l l
b e a s h o r t r u n i n c r e a s e in t h e q u a n t i t y
of h o u s i n g c o n s u m e d , b u t i n l o n g run
e q u i l i b r i u m t he c o n s u m p t i o n by e a c h i n d i ­
v i d u a l w i l l be the s a m e as p r i o r to g o v e r n ­
ment action.
I n t he c a s e of p e r f e c t a n ­
ticipation, p u blic c o n s t r u c t i o n would not
e v e n i n c r e a s e the q u a n t i t y of h o u s i n g
c o n s u m e d in t he s h o r t run.
12 pp.
Refs.
(RG)

P-4257
T he E f f e c t s of a S i m p l e R ent
C o n t r o l S c h e m e in a C o m p e t i t i v e H o u s i n g
Flarket.
E. 0. O l s e n .
D e c e m b e r 1969.
T h e p u r p o s e o f t h i s p a p e r is t o s h o w t h a t
t he a s s u m p t i o n s of M u t l ^ s t h e o r y of t h e
h ousing market imply that a s imple rent
c o n t r o l p r o g r a m r e s u l t s in a d e c r e a s e in
the q u a ntity of housing s e r v i c e c o n sumed
in the l o n g run.
In the s h o r t run, rent
co n t r o l h a s t e n s d e t e r i o r a t i o n of rent
c o n t r o l l e d housing, and, hence, w o r s e n s
the h o u s i n g o c cupied by the t e n a n t s of
these dwellings.
It is further deduced
that rent control subsidizes the consump­
t i o n of n o n - h o u s i n g g o o d s by t e n a n t s o f
r e n t c o n t r o l l e d u n i t s at t he e x p e n s e of
t h e o w n e r s of t h e s e u n i t s .
In t h e l o n g
run, rent control does not affect the c on­
s u m p t i o n of a n y g o o d by a n y b o d y b e c a u s e
all units would, in time, bec o m e u n c o n ­
t r o l l e d a n d we w o u l d r e t u r n t o t h e s i t u a ­
t i o n p r i o r to r e n t c o n t r o l .
F i n a l l y , it
is d e m o n s t r a t e d that u n d e r c o n d i t i o n s of
p r i c e s t a b i l i t y t he v a l u e of re n t c o n t r o l
to the tena n t d e c l i n e s as time passes.
12 pp.
Refs.
(RG)

P-4258
An E f f i c i e n t M e t h o d o f I m p r o v ­
i n g t h e Ho us in g of Lo w I n c o m e F a m i l i e s .
E. 0. O l s e n .
D e c e m b e r 1969.
T h e a u t h o r prese n t s , in s o m e d e t a i l , a
rent c e r t i f i c a t e plan for a C i t y designed
to i n c r e a s e the q u a n t i t y of h o u s i n g c o n ­
s u med by low i n c o m e famil i e s .
This plan
p e r m i t s a s e t o f f a m i l i e s to p u r c h a s e
r e n t c e r t i f i c a t e s for an a m o u n t l e s s t h a n
t he f a c e value of the c e r t i f i c a t e .
Seller^
of h o u s i n g s e r v i c e may r e d e e m t h ese c e r t i ­
ficates at face from the city government.
The basic p arameters of a rent ce r t i f i c a t e
p lan are:
(1) w h o w i l l b e e l i g i b l e f o r
r e n t c e r t i f i c a t e s , (2) t h e f a c e v a l u e o f
t h e c e r t i f i c a t e , (3) t h e a m o u n t e a c h p e r ­
s on m u s t p a y to r e c e i v e his c e r t i f i c a t e .

362
-92-

T h e e f f e c t s of c h a n g e s in t h e s e p a r a m e t e r s
>n t h e c o s t to t h e g o v e r n m e n t , t h e n u m b e r
of familier. who will p a r t i c i p a t e , a nd the
ex t e n t of the im p r o v e m e n t in t h eir housing
are deduced.
The rent c e r t i f i c a t e plan
i s m a d e m o r e s p e c i f i c by a n u m e r i c a l
example.
The a u t h o r s u g g e s t s some r e search
p e r t i n e n t to p r e d i c t i n g e f f e c t s o f a r e n t
c e r t i f i c a t e program.
2 3 pp.
Refs.
(RG)

P-4277
T h e P o s s i b i l i t i e s of D e v e l o p ­
ing an E f f e c t i v e N a t i o n a l T r a n s p o r t
S y s t e m in t h e 1 9 7 0 s .
L. R o e n n a u .
M a r c h 1970.
S u g g e s t i o n s for b a s i c t r a n s p o r t a t i o n re­
s e a r c h a n d a p r e v i e w of p o s s i b l e d e v e l o p ­
ments.
Basic to o l s needed for an a nalytic
a p p r o a c h a r e (1) a d e q u a t e n a t i o n a l d a t a
c o l l e c t i o n , s t o r a g e , a n d e v a l u a t i o n ; (2)
a m e t h o d o l o g y for l o n g r ange, m u l t i m o d e
t r a f f i c f o r e c a s t s ; (3) p r o p e r u s e o f g o v ­
e r n m e n t a l r e g u l a t i o n ; (4) m o d a l - s p l i t
c o n s i d e r a t i o n s — u n d e r s t a n d i n g the f a ctors
at w o r k wh e n t h e r e is a c h o i c e b e t w e e n
t w o m o d e s ; a n d (5) t r a f f i c f l o w l i m i t a ­
tions.
T h e s e t o o l s can be u s e d to s o l v e
s o m e of t h e m a j o r t r a n s p o r t a t i o n p r o b l e m s :
a d e q u a c y of s ervice, d e t e r m i n a t i o n of a
nreFerrpfl
m a r k e t for a c o m p o n e n t transport
mode, cargo transport, traffic flow c o n ­
trol s y s tems and modal interfaces, noise
p o l l u t i o n , a nd the s o c i o e c o n o m i c a s p e c t s
of m u l t i m o d a l systems.
In t he future,
automated aircushion vehicles traveling
f r e e w a y s or e x i s t i n g ra i l r i g h t - o f - w a y s
a t 1 00 m p h m a y l i n k o u t l y i n g r e g i o n s o f
the megapolis, a irports, and oth e r major
t r a n s f e r points.
I n t o r u r b a n t r a v e l may
b e by V / S T O L c r a f t c a r r y i n g 1 0 0 p a s s e n g e r s
over independent airway systems, and con­
v e n t i o n a l a i r c r a f t may land at o f f s h o r e
ports.
20 pp .
(N?)

P-4288
Patterns of Negro-White Resi­
dential Segregation.
K. E. T a e u b e r .
J a n u a r y 1970.
A c r i t i c a l r e v i e w of s o m e q u a n t i t a t i v e em­
p i r i c a l s t u d i e s of r a c i a l r e s i d e n t i a l s e g ­
r e g a t i o n , p r i n c i p a l l y N e g r o e s in C i t i e s :
R e s i d e n t i a l S e g r e g a t i o n a nd N e i g h b o r h o o d
C h ang
by T a e u b e r a n d T a e u b e r , w h i c h u s e s
a n " i nd e x of d i s s i m i l a r i t y " as t he p r i n c i ­
ple independent variable.
Index values
s p e c i f y t h e p e r c e n t a g e of p o p u l a t i o n o f
either race that would have to move from
o n e b l o c k to a n o t h e r to b r i n g i t s r e s i d e n ­
t i a l d i s t r i b u t i o n i n t o l i n e wi t h t h a t of
t h e o t h e r race.
With this measure, racial
residential s e gregation was not greatly
d i f f e r e n t a m o n g t h e 10 9 c i t i e s s t u d i e d .
T h e v a r i a n c e in the c h a n g e s of man y c i t i e s
i s l a r g e l y e x p l a i n e d by a n u m b e r o f i n d e ­
p e n d e n t v a r i a b l e s in a r e g r e s s i o n a n a l y s i s .
O t h e r i n d i c e s that h a v e b e e n used to c o m ­




p ile trend series are discussed.
The au­
t h o r c o m m e n t s on the e t h n i c s e g r e g a t i o n
s t u d i e s of Kantr o w i t z and c o m p a r e s the
d i f f e r e n c e s in p h i l o s o p h y a n d m e t h o d o l o g y
b e t w e e n hi s w ork a nd a r e c e n t s t u d y by
Pascal.
2 6 pp .
(RG)

P - 4295
Black Gold and Black Capitalism:
A Short c u t for N e g r o e s i n t o the E c onomic
Mainstream.
A. R. P a s c a l .
January
1970.
The Italian produce merchant, Polish steel­
w o r k e r a n d the I r i s h c o p a r e A m e r i c a n
c l i c h e s today, but the o r i g i n a l e s t a b l i s h ­
ment of indu s t r i a l e n c l a v e s by ethnic mi­
norities did serve a purpose:
it p r o v i d e d
a f o o t h o l d for l a u n c h i n g them i n t o the
m a i n s t r e a m of the A m e r i c a n e c o n o m y a n d u l ­
t i m a t e l y i n t o v i a b l e p o s i t i o n s in t h e
society.
In t h i s p a p e r it i s a r g u e d t h a t
e s t a b l i s h m e n t of s i m i l a r s e m i - m o n o p o l i e s
for newly emerging minorities--chiefly
B l a c k s — c o uld do the same.
What's needed
is a field w h e r e o p p o r t u n i t y is high, i n ­
v e s t m e n t i s low, t r a i n i n g t i m e i s s h o r t ,
p r o f i t s are s u bstantial, and e n t r e p r e n e u r ­
s h i p is v i r t u a l l y a s s u r e d .
The answer:
gasoline dealerships.
T h e r e 2 2 0 , 0 0 0 in
the U.S., q e n e r a t i n q $ 2 5 b i l l i o n in a n n u a l
s a l e s and with an a n n u a l p a y r o l l of $2 b i l ­
lion.
For openers, a federal investment
o f $1 b i l l i o n w o u l d r e s u l t i n 1 0 0 , 0 0 0
b l a c k - o w n e d and b l a c k - o p e r a t e d s e r v i c e
stations.
C o n c l u d e s the author:
it is a
practical proposal with i n c e ntives and
a d v a n t a g e s few o t h e r s offer.
20 pp.
(TC)

P-4314
Urban Metapolicy and Urban
EducationT. D r o r F e b r u a r y 1970.
I n n o v a t i v e c h a n g e s in b o t h u r b a n m e t a p o l i c y
a n d in u r b a n e d u c a t i o n a r e n e e d e d t o ' m e e t
present and future urban problems.
Meta­
policy d e a l s with p o l i c i e s on p o l i c y making,
in c l u d i n g the c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s of the pol­
icymaking system and basic policy frame­
works and postures.
R e q u i r e d c h a n g e s in
raetapolicy i n c l u d e :
(1) d e v e l o p m e n t o f
u r b a n p o l i c y s c i e n c e s k n o w l e d g e ; (2) i n ­
v e n t i o n o f n e w u r b a n p o l i c y t o o l s ; (3) e x ­
p l i c i t s t r a t e g y d e t e r m i n a t i o n ; (4) n e w
policy-contributing institutions and/or
p o l i c y r e s e a r c h o r g a n i z a t i o n s ; (5) i m ­
p r o v e m e n t of u r b a n p o l i c y m a k i n g p e r s o n n e l ;
(6) a d v a n c e m e n t o f c i t i z e n p a r t i c i p a t i o n impo r t a n t i m p l i c a t i o n s for urban educators:
(1) s i m i l a r i m p r o v e m e n t s in t h e u r b a n e d ­
ucation policymaking subsystem are needed
f o r b e t t e r u r b a n e d u c a t i o n a l p o l i c i e s , (2)
s o m e r a d i c a l c h a n g e s in u r b a n e d u c a t i o n
a r e n e e d e d to me e t the n e e d s of b e t t e r
urban metapolicies.
T h e s e i n c l u d e : (1)
e d u c a t i o n of a d u l t s for more a c t i v e r o l e s
i n u r b a n p o l i c y m a k i n g ; (2) p r e p a r a t i o n o f
c h i l d r e n f o r a c t i v e r o l e s ; (3) t r a i n i n g o f

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urban policy p r a c t i t i o n e r s for new patterns
o f u r b a n p o l i c y m a k i n g ; (» ) t r a i n i n g o f n e w
*■
t y p e s of u r b a n p o l i c y p r o f e s s i o n a l s ; a n d
(5) d e v e l o p m e n t o f p o l i c y s c i e n t i s t s .
U r b a n me t a p o l i c y and urban e d u c a t i o n are
interrelated; thus c a l ling for multidie ens i o n a l reforms.
24 p p .
(Author)

P-4320
PACRIR— A Form of Regional
Governmental Cooperation.
E. J. S a v a g e .
M a r c h 1970.
E x a mines the purpose, scope, and ac c o m ­
p l i s h m e n t s of t h e P a c i f i c C o a s t B o a r d of
Intergovernmental Relations (PACBIR), a
regional, voluntary assembly of national,
state, and local leaders formed shortly
a f t e r W o r l d W a r II t o s t u d y i n t e r g o v e r n ­
mental problems.
B e c a u s e PACBIR had no
f o r m a l o r l e g a l powe r , it a c c o m p l i s h e d its
p u r p o s e s thr o u g h the e x c h a n g e of i n f o r m a ­
tion and the formul a t i o n of r e c o m m e n d a ­
tions.
Because PACBIR brought together
i n f o r m a l l y all l e v e l s of g o v e r n m e n t a l of­
f i c i a l s , it e s t a b l i s h e d f r i e n d l y i n t e r ­
g ov e r n m e n t a l w orking relat i o n s h i p s and
e n a b l e d the speedy m o bilization of any
g o v e r n m e n t a l a g e n c y on the P a c i f i c Coast.
S p e c i f i c p r o b l e m s it c o n s i d e r e d d u r i n g i t s
5 years of successful operation included:
d u p l i c a t i o n among national, state, and
local laws; welfare costs; i ntergovern­
mental fiscal relations; disaster prepared­
ness planning; the i m p a c t of the increa s i n g
p e r c e n t a g e o f e l d e r l y p e o p l e in t he p o p u ­
lat i o n ; a n d c o n s e r v a t i o n of w a t e r r e ­
sources.
23 pp.
Ref.
(LC)

P-4332
T h e A u t o m o b i l e ’ R o l e in t he
s
Future.
J. L. H u l t .
M a r c h 1970.
E xplores the comp e t i t i o n between various
m o d e s of t r a v e l as a f u n c t i o n of ran g e ,
and the choice between travel or e l e c ­
tronics for communicating.
An e v o l u t i o n a r y
d e v e l o p m e n t of o u r m e a n s of t r a v e l is de­
scribed that would introduce new concepts
for impr o v i n g the c a p acity and c a pability
of our urban t r a n s p o r t a t i o n s y s t e m s while
reducing unwanted side effects.
A Freeway
E x p r e s s T r a n s i t is o u t l i n e d t h a t w o u l d
bet t e r use the a l r e a d y huge i n v e s t m e n t
c o m m i t m e n t s in land, e q u i p m e n t , and s o c i a l
w ay o f l ife t h a t have m a d e the a u t o m o b i l e
s u c h an i m p o r t a n t f a c t o r .
It w o u l d r e t a i n
t h e e m i n e n t r o l e of the a u t o m o b i l e w h i l e
evolving a more socially satisfying trans­
portation system.
5 pp.
Ref.
(Author)

P-4345
A Case Study in Urban Develop­
ment:
F r o m " F a c t o r y T o w n " to B a l a n c e d
Community.
E. J. S a v a g e .
A p r i l 1970.
A n a s s e s s m e n t of f u t u r e p r o s p e c t s f o r b a l ­
a n c e d s o c i o - e c o n o m i c g r o w t h in R i c h m o n d ,




C a l i f . , a B a y Ar e a i n d u s t r i a l b o o m t o w n in
W o r l d W a r II t h a t t o d a y i s f a c e d w i t h p r o b ­
lems of race, une m p l o y m e n t , o v e r c r o w d i n g ,
d o w ntown deterioration, and e x p l o s i v e s u b ­
urban growth.
The author probes c u r r e n t
physical, social, and e c o n o m i c pres s u r e s
and e v a l u a t e s oppo r t u n i t i e s for urban
growth and redevelopment that will restore
t h e c o n c e p t of a c o r e C i t y w i t h a s t r o n g
i n d u s t r i a l b ase a n d p r o v i d e jobs, h o u s i n g ,
r e c reation, and e d u c a t i o n for the a r e a ’
s
burgeoning minority population.
Among
s p e c i f i c needs:
(1)
quality high-density
r e s i d e n t i a l a n d c o m m e r c i a l d e v e l o p m e n t , (2)
p r e s e r v a t i o n o f o p e n s p a c e , a n d (3) r e c ­
l a m a t i o n of much t i d e l a n d area for multiple
l a n d use .
Richmond has natural advantages,
good c i t y a d m i n i s t r a t o r s , and an a d e q u a t e
general plan for balanced development; the
q u e s t i o n is, w i l l f u t u r e g r o w t h a d h e r e t o
planners' guidelines?
28 pp.
Ref.
(TC)

P-&346
The A d v i s o r y C o m m i s s i o n on In ­
tergovernmental Relations— A Data Base
for Urban Planners.
E. J . S a v a g e .
A p r i l 197 0 .
ACIR, a 5 - y e a r - o l d i n s t i t u t i o n c o n c e r n e d
with p r o b l e m s of i n t e r g o v e r n m e n t a l r e l a t i o n s
a t t h e n a t i o n a l level., h a s b e e n snrrp<sRfni.
in engendering greater inter-level co­
o p e r a t i o n in the U.S. f e d e r a l s y s t e m , thus
helping to reduce the ideological tug-ofwar between those who favor dece n t r a l i z e d
d i s p e r s i o n of p o w e r a n d t h o s e who back
strong centralized power.
This paper ex­
a m i n e s A C I R f r o m the s t a n d p o i n t o f o r i g i n ,
structural composition, and interests and
accomplishments.
I n t e r w o v e n is a c o n s i d e r ­
a t i o n o f A C I R *s u n i q u e f e a t u r e s , i n c l u d i n g
it s p o l i c y role and an a n a l y s i s of ACIR
l i t e r a t u r e on g o v e r n m e n t a l r e o r g a n i z a t i o n
in m e t r o p o l i t a n a reas.
23 pp .
Ref.
(TC)

P-4364
A M e t h o d o l o g y for E v aluating
Housing Programs.
J. S. D e S a l v o .
April
1970.
Proposes a methodology for evaluating hous­
ing programs, based on b e n e f i t - c o s t a n a l y s i s
with a mathematical model.
Housing programs
ben e f i t p a r t i c i p a n t s by p r o v i d i n g th e m with
a d e q u a t e housing at l e s s - t h a n - m a r k e t costs,
and b e n e f i t n o n p a r t i c i p a n t s , e . g . , by
neighborhood upgrading.
Both types of ben­
efits, as well a s r e s o u r c e c osts, shou l d
be cons i d e r e d in p r o gram evaluation.
There­
fore, a m o d e l of c o n s u m e r c h o i c e in t h e
rental housing market is devel o p e d for
theoretically determining and empirically
measuring costs and benefits.
It c o n s i d e r s ,
b a s i c a l l y , (1) n e t t e n a n t b e n e f i t s — t h e
a d d i t i o n a l i n c o m e the p a r t i c i p a n t n e e d s to
be a s well off w i t h o u t the p r o g r a m as wit h
i t ; (2) g r o s s t e n a n t b e n e f i t s — t h e p r e v i o u s
amount plus that a c t u a l l y paid for the

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d w e l l i u g ; (3) t o t a l b e n e f i t s — n o n t e n a n t
b e n e f i t s plus g r oss tenant benefits; and
(4) t o t a l r e s o u r c e c o s t .
These benefits
and c o s t s are estim a t e d from the actual
rent of the p r o g r a m unit, t e n a n t inco m e ,
t h e m a r k e t r e n t of the unit, and the t e n ­
a n t ' s n o n p r o y r a m r e n t / i n c o m e ratio.
37 pp.
(LC)

P-4374-1
The R a t i o n a l e for a Policy
on P o p u l a t i o n D i s t r i b u t i o n .
P. A.
Morrison.
J u l y 1970.
Lacking any n a t ional policy on the spatial
d i s t r i b u t i o n of our p opulation, Federal
and state policies unintentionally exacer­
b a t e our p r o b l e m s by a t t r a c t i n g the p r o s ­
p e r o u s a w a y f rom the poor, whi c h t e n d s a lso
to s e p a r a t e the races.
Without elaborate
p r e c a u t i o n s , ne w c i t i e s a r e l i k e l y to d e ­
s t r o y the o ld ones.
The spontaneous mi­
g r a t o r y flow of y o u n g a d u l t s c o u l d be r e ­
directed without interfering with i n d i v i d ­
u al f r e e d o m of c h o i c e by a c t i n g to m a k e
certain selected destinations more attrac­
tive than others.
Resettlement programs
a n d o n - t h e - j o b t r a i n i n g at s p e c i f i e d loca­
t i o n s c o u l d be o f f e r e d to a c a l c u l a t e d mix
of migrants.
Public and private employbu t p r i v a t e i n d u s t r i a l l o c a t i o n h a s b e e n
d i f f i c u l t to i n f l u e n c e , a n d t h e l o c a l i s m
o f A m e r i c a n p o l i t i c s is a f o r m i d a b l e o b ­
s t a c l e to making public i n v e s t m e n t a work­
a b l e inst r u m e n t of any policy.
Neverthe­
less, we must f o r m u l a t e o u r goals.
This
— w i t h t h e a t t e n d a n t v e n t i l a t i o n of i s s u e s
— is t h e n e c e s s a r y f i r s t s t e p i n m a r s h a l ­
ing a c o m m i t m e n t to act.
(Revised for
t h e a n n u a l m e e t i n g of t h e A m e r i c a n P o l i t ­
ical Science Association.)
21 pp.
Ref.
(MW)

P-4379
L o n g - R a n g e P l a n n i n g in t h e C r i m ­
inal Justice System:
What State Plan­
n i n g A g e n c i e s C a n Do.
P. W. G r e e n w o o d .
J u n e 1 970.
The state criminal justice planning agen­
c i e s r e q u i r e d by th e C r i m e C o n t r o l A c t of
1 9 6 8 m u s t , to a c h i e v e t h e i r o b j e c t i v e s ,
o v e r c o m e t he u s u a l s o u r c e s o f p l a n f a i l u r e
- - r e s i s t a n c e of t h e a g e n c i e s i n v o l v e d to
ou t s i d e control; s e p a ration of p lanning
f r o m b u d g e t i n g ; p l a n n i n g in a v a c u u m a p a r t
from d e c i s i o n m a k e r s who a c c e p t o r reject;
l a c k of f l e x i b i l i t y (many i n f o r m a t i o n s y s ­
tems are obs o l e t e b efore they go o n - l i n e ) ;
f a i l u r e to c o n s i d e r all a l t e r n a t i v e s ; and
l a c k of e v a l u a t i o n data.
P r o b l e m s to be
faced specifically:
res o u r c e short a g e with
demand outstripping capacity; obscure func­
tions and historically based hangups; poor
a d m i n i s t r a t i o n ; and divis i o n of fu n c t i o n s
a m o n g a g e n c i e s , r e s u l t i n g in f r a g m e n t a t i o n
a n d o f t e n in c o n f l i c t i n g e f f o r t s .
Coor-




d i n a t o d p l a n n i n g is e s s e n t i a l to p r e v e n t
o v e r l a p p i n g a nd o v e r s i g h t , to u s e r e s o u r c e s
e f f i c i e n t l y , to r e d u c e a n g u i s h , a n d to make
r esea r c h widely useful.
A n a l y s i s is needed
at e v e r y step, r e q u i r i n g e c o n o m i s t s , o p e r a ­
tions researchers, psychologists, engineers,
and information scientists.
( P r e s e n t e d to
the I l l i n o i s Law E n f o r cement C o m m i s s i o n
s t a f f , A p r i l 1970.)
8 pp.
Ref.
(MW)

P-4420
The TRY Foundation:
A Case
S t u d y in P r i v a t e C o m m u n i t y D e v e l o p a e n t
Organizations.
P. T. M c C l u r e .
Januarv
1971.
T he TRY F o u n d a t i o n is a p r i v a t e l y funded,
n o n p r o f i t o r g a n i z a t i o n in L o s A n g e l e s
d ev o t e d to c o m m u n i t y a nd hu ma n d e v e l o p m e n t
in d i s a d v a n t a g e d a r e a s .
T R Y ’ activities
s
are of inter e s t p r i m a r i l y b s c a u s e g o v e r n ­
mental programs with similar objectives
have not been unif o r m l y successful.
This
p aper d e s c r i b e s the origins, goals, and
p r o b l e m s of T R Y a n d b r i e f l y e x a m i n e s p e r ­
sonnel issues such as recruiting, c o m p e n s a ­
tion, an d m o t i v a t i o n .
T h e r e a r e no c o m p l e x
a d m i n i s t r a t i v e r e q u i r e m e n t s t o b e m e t in
TRY.
P r o g r a m s a r e a d o p t e d o n an ad h oc
b a s i s ; n e w a c t i v i t i e s a r e p r o p o s e d by whoo v o r n 1 * n ^ to d i r p r t the new urogram.
If
T R Y f o l l o w s t h e p a t t e r n of m o s t d e v e l o p i n g
organizations, this will change as opera­
tions become more extensive and the org a n i ­
zation matures.
Some tentative c o n clusions
drawn from T R Y ’ first year of experience:
s
S u p p o r t a n d c o n t r i b u t i o n s c a n be r a i s e d more
e a s i l y for specific rath e r than for
g e n e r a l i z e d tasks.
P r o g r a m s must be f l e x ­
ible.
P e r s o n a l c o m m i t m e n t by i n d i v i d u a l s
is the s i n g l e most i m p o r t a n t i n g r e d i e n t
of success.
34 pp.
(KB)

P-4424
The U t i l i t y of U t i l i t y T h e o r y
in R e g i o n a l T r a n s p o r t a t i o n M i x A n a l y s i s .
F. S. P a r d e e , C. T. P h i l l i p s .
August
1 970.
M e t h o d s f o r a p p l y i n g u t i l i t y t h e o r y to
m e a s u r e b e n e f i t s of a l t e r n a t i v e r e g i o n a l
t r a n s p o r t a t i o n m ixes, as p a r t of a c o m ­
prehensive evaluation.
The b a s e c a s e is
a l w a y s the c o n t i n u a t i o n of p r e s e n t trends.
I nterest groups are defined--users, op­
erators, other social groups affected,
implementing and regulatory agencies,
lobbying groups.
The a t t r i b u t e s d e s ir e d
by e a c h a r e s p e c i f i e d , e x c l u d i r g t h o s e
t h a t a re i n f e a s i b l e or u n a c c e p t a b l e .
Ways
a r e p r e s e n t e d for m e a s u r i n g them and for
a g g r e g a t i n g o v e r l o w e r - l e v e l a t t r i b u t e s to
find s u m m a r y u t i l i t y m e a s u r e s .
A r a n g e of
m e t h o d s is p r oposed for o v e r a l l co m p a r i s o n :
qualitative evaluation; ordinal scaling
a r r a n g e d so the p r e f e r r e d v a l u e is a l w a y s
a t t he right; d i r e c t a s s i g n m e n t of w o r t h
scores; construction of worth func t i o n s

8 1 - 7 4 5 O - 7 2 - pt. 1 - - 2 4

365
-9 5-

f o r e a c h a t t r i b u t e ; w e i g h t i n g on s o m e
p o licy b a s i s — e.g., rega r d i n g i a p o rtance
t o i n f l u e n t i a l g r o u p s or to t he d i s a d v a n ­
taged.
The worth functions and weighting
■ ethods m a y be e i t h e r d e t e r a i n i s t i c o r
probabilistic.
(Prepared for the 36th
n a t i o n a l O R S A m e e t i n g , N o v e m b e r 1969.)
21 p p .
Ref.
(HW)

P-4U25
New D e v e l o p m e n t s in T r a n s p o r t a ­
tion Analysis:
E v a l u a t i o n of M i x e s of
B o d e s in A l t e r n a t i v e R e g i o n a l E n v i r o n ­
ments.
F. S. P a r d e e .
J u l y 1970.
I l l u s t r a t e s the a p p l i c a t i o n of r e c e n t re­
s e a r c h on the a n a l y s i s of a l t e r n a t i v e t r a n s ­
portation investments.
E m p h a s i s is on a
c o mprehensive approach to identification,
d e f i n i t i o n , a n d m e a s u r e m e n t of b e n e f i t s to
u s e r s o f t he t r a n s p o r t a t i o n s y stea, to i ts
o p erators, and to society.
Two alternative
s i x e s a re c o m p a r e d wi t h the b a s e m ix (cur­
r e n t a u t o , b u s , r a i l , a n d a i r s e r v i c e ) in
two alternative regional environments during
the 1970-1990 period.
Each mix involves
a $5 b i l l i o n i n v e s t m e n t .
Alternative 1
assuraes t h e b a s e m i x p l u s t r a c k e d a i r c u s h ­
i o n (TACV) s e r v i c e o n h i g h - d e n s i t y o r i g i n destination links and short takeoff and
l a n d i n g (STOL) a i r c r a f t f o r l o w e r - d e n s i t y
service links.
A l t e r n a t i v e 2 assuraes t h e
b a s e mix p l u s t he i n t r o d u c t i o n o f a dualn o d e s y s t e m c o n s i s t i n g of e l e c t r i c p a s s e n g e r
cars and buses o p e r a t i n g on city str e e t s
at c o n v e n t i o n a l s p e e d s a nd a t h i g h e r s p e e d s
on intercity tracks.
Models were con­
s t r u c t e d to a s s i s t in t h e e v a l u a t i o n e x ­
ercise.
28 pp.
Bibliog.
(DGS)

P-U437
E f f e c t s of t h e P r o p e r t y T a x o n
O per a t i n g and Investment Decisions of
Rental Property Owners.
J. S. D e S a l v o .
A u g u s t 1970.
M o d e l s t h e e f f e c t s of p r o p e r t y t a x e s o n t h e
investment and operating decisions, partic­
ularly those c o n c e r n i n g upgrading, of
rent a l p roperty owners.
T h e l a n d l o r d is
a s s u m e d to m a x i m i z e p r o f i t s .
When inputs
t o t h e m o d e l a r e v a r i a b l e (the " l o n g r u n ” ,
)
p r o p e r t y t a x i n c r e a s e s r e s u l t in le s s
c a p i t a l i n v e s t m e n t and, in a c o m p e t i t i v e
h o u s i n g market, d e c r e a s e d use of v a r i a b l e
factors.
T h u s if " u p g r a d i n g " B e a n s i n ­
c r e a s e d c a p i t a l i n v e s t m e n t , then t a x d e ­
c r e a s e s i n i t i a t e it in t h e l o n g r u n .
H o w e v e r , if " u p g r a d i n g " m e a n s i n c r e a s e d
h o u s i n g s e r v i c e s , then, in a c o m p e t i t i v e
market, tax decreases will c a u s e upgrading;
b u t i n a m o n o p o l i s t i c m a r k e t , t h e r e i s no
un a m b i g u o u s result.
F i n a l l y , w hen the
c a p i t a l i n v e s t m e n t i s f i x e d (the " s h o r t
r u n " ) , c h a n g e s in p r o p e r t y t a x r a t e s d o
not c a use upgrading.
All results hol d for
assessment rate changes.
T hat rate nay




be a d j u s t e d to a l l o w f o r
and abatements.
10 p p .

ta x e x e m p t i o n s
(LC)

P-tlUUO
Chronic Movers and the Future
R e d i s t r i b u t i o n of P o p u l a t i o n :
A Lon­
gitudinal Analysis.
P. A. M o r r i s o n .
O c t o b e r 19 7 0 .
T h i s res e a r c h has 2 purposes:
(1) I t a t ­
t e m p t s to i d e n t i f y q u a n t i t a t i v e r e l a t i o n ­
ships between individual- and householdlevel f a c t o r s and the d i f f e r e n t i a l p r o ­
p e n s i t y to move.
The findings indicate
t h a t r e d i s t r i b u t i o n o f p o p u l a t i o n m a y be
l a r g e l y a ma t t e r of h a b i t u a l m o v e r s c h a n g ­
i ng r e s i d e n c e r e p e a t e d l y and f r e q u e n t l y .
(2) I t e x a m i n e s h o w t h e e f f e c t s o f h a b i t u a l
m o v e m e n t a r e m a n i f e s t e d at t h e m e t r o p o l i t a n
s c ale and i d entifies a g g r e g a t e i n d ices that
c a p t u r e the most i m p o r t a n t f e a t u r e s of
local population composition for predictive
purposes.
R a t e s of p o p u l a t i o n a o v e m e n t
a r e fou n d to vary p r i n c i p a l l y wi t h the
r e l a t i v e c o n c e n t r a t i o n of c h r o n i c m o v e r s
in a s t a n d a r d m e t r o p o l i t a n s t a t i s t i c a l
area.
s e v e r a l i m p l i c a t i o n s for p o l i c i e s
to guide future population distribution
are discussed.
31 pp .
(Author)

P-4U46
E v a l u a t i o n a n d I n n o v a t i o n in
Urban Research.
G. D. B r e w e r .
August
1970.
A n a l y z e s t he m e t h o d o l o g y of c o m p u t e r s i m u ­
l a t i o n in t h e s o c i a l s c i e n c e s an d it s
a b i l i t y to mana g e c o m p l e x l y o r g a n i z e d s y s ­
tems.
T h e "i n p r i n c i p l e " a r g u m e n t s a d ­
v a n c e d in s u p p o r t of the m e t h o d h a v e bee n
i n s u f f i c i e n t l y t e m p e r e d by h o n e s t a p ­
p r a i s a l of past "in pr a c t i c e " experiences.
A c o n t i n u a t i o n of the e x i s t i n g t r e n d s
cou l d harm both the met h o d and the pro­
c e s s e s of p r o b l e m s o l v i n g in a s o c i a l c o n ­
text.
An i n i t i a l p r o b l e m is t h e d e v e l o p ­
ment of an a p p r a i s a l f u n c t i o n — i.e., a
s e r i e s of q u e s t i o n s or c r i t e r i a a g a i n s t
which a c o m p u t e r s i m u l a t i o n may be judged.
The e x p e r iences from 2 empirical contexts
a r e r e l a t e d in e f f o r t s t o c o n s t r u c t a s o c a l l e d p o l i c y - a s s i s t i n g c l a s s cf s i m u l a t i o n
models.
D e f i c i e n c i e s in the a p p r a i s a l
i n c l u d e d the v a s t l y d i f f e r e n t o r i e n t a t i o n s
of p a rticipants interviewed, salesmanship,
and v a r i o u s tech n i c a l and t h e o r e t i c a l
shortcomings.
47 pp.
(KB)

P-U46U
An A p p r o a c h t o D e v e l o p i n g
A cco u n t a b i l i t y M easures for the Public
Schools.
S. M . B a r r o .
S e p t e m b e r 1970.
A general strategy for evaluating pupils'
p r o g r e s s so t h a t e a c h e d u c a t o r is held
responsible for those o u tcooes--and only
t h o s e outcome's— t h a t he c a n a f f e c t , to the
e x t e n t t h a t he c a n a f f e c t t h e m .
The basic

366
-96-

s t a t i s t i c a l t e c h n i q u e is m u l t i p l e r e g r e s ­
sion analysis.
Several stages are needed
(1) t o t a k e a c c o u n t o f v a r i a t i o n d u e to
the p u p i l s ’ backgrounds and c h a r a c t e r i s ­
t i c s , (2) to e s t i m a t e t h e r e m a i n i n g i n t e r c l a s s r o o m v a r i a t i o n , a n d (3) t o a t t r i ­
b u t e it t o p a r t i c u l a r t e a c h e r s , o t h e r
c l assroom variables, and other school
characteristicsIn p r i n c i p l e , t h e m e t h o d
c a n be e x t e n d e d to e v a l u a t e the c o n t r i b u ­
tions of administrators, provided the
d i s t r i c t is large e n o u g h for adequ a t e
comparisons.
The interclassroom variation
r e m a i n i n g after nont e a c h e r effects have
b e e n a c c o u n t e d f o r is p r o b a b l y t h e m o s t
widely useful measure.
Complex econometric
m o d e l s m a y be r e q u i r e d t o c o p e w i t h i n t e r ­
a c t i o n e f f e c t s — t h e e f f e c t of p r o b l e m
c h i l d r e n on t h e i r c l a s s m a t e s , or of l a s t
yea r ' s t e a c h e r on this y e a r ’ performance.
s
30 pp.
(MW)

P-4470
N e t w o r k E v a l u a t i o n of C o m p l e x
Transportation Systems.
K. V. S m i t h ,
C. T. P h i l l i p s , R. J. L e w i s .
October
1 9 70.
The proposed methodology studies transpor­
t a t i o n s y s t e m e f f e c t i v e n e s s by e v a l u a t i n g
a c o mplex syst e m of inter- and i n t r a c i t y
travel modes— including access, egress,
and transfer services— within a geographic
region.
S u c h a s y s t e m c a n be v i e w e d as a
n e t w o r k of n o d e s (cities) and l i n k s (travel
modes).
T h e m e t h o d o l o g y is i l l u s t r a t e d
in t e r m s of a s i n g l e u s e r g r o u p - - m i d d l e - i n c o m e p e o p l e on b u s i n e s s t r i p s — w i t h o u t
cons i d e r i n g access and egress.
Each link
i s d e s c r i b e d by type, s c h e d u l e , a n d c a p a c ­
it y , a s w e l l a s b y i t s p o s i t i v e a n d n e g a ­
tive a t t r i b u t e s perceived by users, such
as t r avel time and cost, safety, c o n v e ­
nience, and comfort.
User att i t u d e s to­
ward d ifferent links are summarized by a
matrix.
T h e e n t r i e s in t h i s m a t r i x a r e
n e t w o r k i m p e d a n c e s - - i . e . , s u m m a r i e s of the
i n c o n v e n i e n c e s ( " d isbenefits") to t r a v e l e r s
u s i n g g i v e n links.
If t h e m a t r i x r o w s
r e p r e s e n t origin t e r m i n a l s and the c o lumns
r e p r e s e n t de s t i n a t i o n t e r m inals, then ap­
p l i c a t i o n of a s h o r t e s t ' - p a t h a l g o r i t h m to
t h e n e t w o r k r e s u l t s i n the o p t i m a l r o u t i n g
fo r e a c h o r i g i n - d e s t i n a t i o n pair.
15 pp.
Ref.
(LC)

P-4477
T h e L a n d l o r d R e i n v e s t m e n t Model:
A C o m p u t e r B as ed Meth od of E v a l u a t i n g
t h e F i n a n c i a l F e a s i b i l i t y of A l t e r n a t i v e
T r e a t m e n t s for P r o b l e m B u i l d i n g s .
C. P.
Rydell.
O c t o b e r 1970.
O r i g i n a l l y w r i t t e n for t he O c t o b e r 1970
m e e t i n g o f t he I n s t i t u t e of M a n a g e m e n t
Scien c e s , this paper d e s c r i b e s the La n d ­
lord Reinv e s t m e n t Model, a com p u t e r pro­
gram that prepares fi n a n c i a l a n a l y s e s of




a l t e r n a t i v e a s s i s t a n c e tr e a t m e n t s *or
b u i l d i n g s r e q u i r i n g r e p a i r s to m e e t MYC
housing code standards.
It e n a b l e s e s t i ­
m a t i o n of t h e l e v e l o f C i t y a s s i s t a n c e
n e e d e d t o i n d u c e a l a n d l o r d to r e i n v e s t
in h i s p r o p e r t y t h r o u g h p e r f o r m a n c e of
r e q u i r e d r e p a i r s , p a y m e n t of d e b t s , a n d
provision for a d e q u a t e fut u r e maintenance.
The m o d e l was d e s i g n e d for the P r o b l e m
Bu i l d i n g s Evaluation and T r e a t m e n t System,
an e x p e r i m e n t a l u n i t in the NYC M o u s i n g
a nd D e v e l o p m e n t A d m i n i s t r a t i o n f o r m e d to
c o m b a t the loss of h o u s e s fro m e x i s t i n g
inventories.
T h e d i m e n s i o n s of t h a t p r o h lem:
b e t w e e n 1 9 6 5 a n d 1968, 1 1 4 , 0 0 0
h o u s i n g u n i t s w ere l o s t to NYC, m o s t
abandoned as f i n a n c i a l l y h o p e l e s s by la n d ­
lords.
16 pp.
Ref.
(TC)

P-4438
R u r a l - U r b a n M i g r a t i o n in C o l o m ­
bia.
T. P. S c h u l t z .
O c t o b e r 19 7 0 .
T h e g r e a t e s t e f f e c t of C o l o m b i a ' s p o s t w a r
p opulation explosion has been a massive
m i g r a t i o n f r o m r u r a l to u r b a n a r e a s .
U s ing a mode l , this s t u d y e x p l o r e s the
c a u s e s of i n t e r r e g i o n a l m i g r a t i o n .
Massive
i n t e r r e g i o n a l s h i f t s of p o p u l a t i o n a r e a
d y n a m i c a d j u s t m e n t to i m b a l a n c e s b e t w e e n
r e g i o n a l s u p p l y and d e m a n d for labor.
O t h e r f a c t o r s a f f e c t t h e d e c i s i o n to m i ­
grate:
the c o s t of m i g r a t i o n ; the m i ­
g r a n t ' s e d u c a t i o n a l l e v e l ; an d , in C o l o m ­
bia, t h e l e v e l o f v i o l e n c e w i t h i n a l o c a l
region.
M i g r a t i o n to t h e c i t i e s i s a l s o
sex and age selective, d r a wing forth young,
able-bodied, and u n e n c u m b e r e d workers
- - p a r t i c u l a r l y women, who o f ten h a v e mor e
to g a i n t h a n men f r o m l e a v i n g t r a d i t i o n a l
rural society.
The proposed model in t e r ­
p r e t s l o c a l a g e - a n d s e x - s p e c i f i c r a t e s of
i n t e r r e g i o n a l m i g r a t i o n as a p p r o x i m a t e l y
linear functions for
independent vari­
ables:
l o c a l w a g e r a t e s in a g r i c u l t u r e ;
2 m e a s u r e s of e d u c a t i o n ; the e s t i m a t e d
l o c a l r a t e of p o p u l a t i o n i n c r e a s e w i t h no
m i g r a t i o n ; the l e v e l of r e g i o n a l p o l i t i c a l
viol e nc e; and d i s t a n c e to the n e a r e s t l a r g e
town.
2 5 pp.
Ref.
(LC)

P-4512
Fire Service:
C h a l l e n g e to
Modern Management.
E. H. B l u m .
Novem­
b e r 197 0.
F i r e d e p a r t m e n t e f f e c t i v e n e s s , on w h i c h
t h e U . S . a n n u a l l y s p e n d s a b o u t $3 b i l l i o n ,
is b e i n g e r o d e d by c h a n g i n g c o n d i t i o n s and
community problems.
Ov e r 90% g o e s for
manpower.
The n u m b e r of f a l s e a l a r m s ,
r u bbish fires, ab a n d o n e d b u i l d i n g fires,
d e l i b e r a t e l y s e t f i r e s , a n d n.jn f i r e e m e r ­
g e n c i e s h a v e c h a n g e d the n a t u r e of fir e
service demands.
M o s t a r c c o n c e n t r a t e d in
slum a r e a s where fire insp e c t i o n can ac­
c e l e r a t e the p r o c e s s of a b a n d o n m e n t a n d
t h u s i n c r e a s e t he l i k e l i h o o d of fi r e s .

367
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Insurance rating schemes work against new
and improved procedures.
Congress passed
t h e F i r e R e s e a r c h a n d S a f e t y Act in 1968,
but without funding.
R e s e a r c h of n a t i o n a l
s c o p e is needed.
D e p a r tments must co­
o p e r a t e to seek e c o n o m i e s of s c a l e in p r o ­
c u r e m e n t a nd to a l l o w i n t e r c i t y m o b i l i t y
of firemen.
Increased minority membership
and lateral entry into fire service are
needed.
C o urage and the firefighting tr a ­
d i t i o n a r e not eno u g h .
Fire chiefs must
be trained as managers, capable of matching
re s o u r c e s to needs.
(Reprinted from Public
Management . )
5 pp .
(HW)

P-Q515-1
Orban Growth, New Cities, and
"The Population Problem."
P. A.
Morrison.
D e c e m b e r 19 7 0 .
C o n s t r u i n g the " p o p u l a t i o n problem" e x ­
c l u s i v e l y as a c r i s i s of n u m b e r s neg l e c t s
s e v e r a l r e l a t e d i s s u e s of g r e a t e r u r g e n c y .
A n e w c i t i e s p r o g r a m has b e e n p r o p o s e d as
p a r t of; a n a t i o n a l s t r a t e g y t o a m e l i o r a t e
an a d v e r s e d i s t r i b u t i o n of e x i s t i n g popu­
lation and absorb a portion of its projec­
ted future increase.
This paper highlights
t he p r i n c i p a l d i m e n s i o n s of m a l d i s t r i b u t i o n
a n d t h e d y n a m i c s of p o p u l a t i o n m o v e m e n t s .
T h e r a t i o n a l e for new c i t i e s is th e n d i s ­
c u s s e d i n Lt; la L i u u Lv
above objectives,
a n d t h e f e a s i b i l i t y o f u s i n g new c i t i e s to
s h a p e p o p u l a t i o n d i s t r i b u t i o n is e x a m i n e d
in l i g h t o f e x i s t i n g r e s e a r c h find i n g s .
D e s p i t e its attra c t i v e n e s s , the logic of
a n e w ' c i t i e s p r o gram is f r a u g h t with d e m o ­
g r a p h i c weaknesses that would reduce its
e f f e c t i v e n e s s a n d c o u l d p r o v e to be
counterproductive.
Such a program must
be coordinated with other forces influenc­
i n g t h e a r r a n g e m e n t of p o p u l a t i o n .
A
b r o a d e r p olicy on popu l a t i o n d i s t r i b u t i o n
and b a l a n c e is a d v o c a t e d .
37 pp . ( A u t h o r )

P— 4519
F r e i g h t T r a n s p o r t in U r b a n
Areas:
Issues for R e s e a r c h and Action.
B. F. G o e l l e r .
N o v e m b e r 1970.
A s y n t h e s i s of t h e q u e s t i o n s r a i s e d d u r i n g
a f r e i g h t s e m i n a r of the 1967 R a n d / H U D / D O T
S u m m e r P r o g r a m in U r b a n T r a n s p o r t a t i o n ,
revised and republished for the December
1970 C o n f e r e n c e on U r b a n C o m m o d i t y F l o w
s p o n s o r e d by th e U.S. D e p a r t m e n t of T r a n s ­
p o r t a t i o n and Cana d i a n T r a n s p o r t Ministry.
P r i m a r i l y , it is a l i s t o f i s s u e s u n d e r
t h e s e major topics:
m o v e m e n t of u r b a n
freight; i n t e raction of freight and pas­
senger traffic; freight transport as a
c o m p o n e n t o f u r b a n s o c i e t y , u s e r of u r b a n
l a n d , a n d t o o l in u r b a n d e v e l o p m e n t ; a n d
the government role in fostering new tec h ­
n o l o g y a n d in r e g u l a t i o n .
Most of t h e
i s s u e s of 1967 a r e s t i l l p r e s s i n g t o d a y ,
but some have been ameliorated.
Containerization has progressed, and DOT now




h a s a s p e c i a l o f f i c e to c e n t r a l i z e i n f o r aation about freight transport.
30 p p .
(HW)

P-4532
Admatch, A C o m p u t e r Too l for
Urban Studies.
A. H. R o s e n t h a l .
De­
c e m b e r 1970.
D e s c r i p t i o n of Admatch, a set of c o m p u t e r
p r o g r a m s for match i n g g e o g r a p h i c c o d e s from
a r e f e r e n c e file to local data rec o r d s that
contain house addresses.
The geographic
c o d e s may i n c l u d e zip cod e s , c e n s u s tracts,
c o n g r e s s i o n a l d i s t r i c t s , and m a r k e t i n g
areas.
A d m a t c h req u i r e s two m a c h i n e - r e a d ­
able files:
a local data file and a ref­
e r e n c e file.
The p r eprocessing program
uses expandable tables that allow varia­
t i o n s in s t r e e t n a m e c o n f i g u r a t i o n s or
a l t e r n a t i v e s p e l l i n g s of s t r e e t o r s t r e e t
type.
The matcher program specifies the
level of d i s c r e p a n c y that can exist between
the reference file and the data file and
still pe r m i t the record for the data file
t o be mat c h e d .
The postprocessor program
c o m b i n e s r e j e c t s from t h e p r e p r o c e s s i n g
step with the accep t e d r e c o r d s from the
m a t c h i n g step.
D i s c u s s i o n c o v e r s the role
t h a t R a n d h a s p l a y e d in t e s t i n g a n d d e ­
v e l o p i n g the A d m a t c h programs, d e f ines the
e q u i p m e n t , and f o r e c a s t s
to
urban studies.
13 pp.
(KB)

P-H5U4
The Impact of I n c o m e M a i n t e n a n c e
P r o g r a m s on H o u r s of Work a n d I n c o m e s of
the W o r k i n g Poor:
Some Empirical Re­
sults.
D. H. G r e e n b e r g , M. R o s t e r s .
D e c e m b e r 1970.
Most welfare reform programs i n c o r p o r a t e
n ega t i v e income tax principles.
However,
if a p r o g r a m r e d u c e s t h e w o r k i n c e n t i v e
a n d t h e r e f o r e the h o u r s of w o r k of it s new
participants, projected income increases
will be lower and s u b s i d y co s t s higher than
e x p e c t e d , u n l e s s t h e l a b o r r e d u c t i o n is
o f f s e t by i n c r e a s e d w o r k b y t h o s e u n d e r
current welfare programs.
A simulation of
a l t e r n a t i v e a s s i s t a n c e pl a n s i n d i c a t e s that
a b o u t 1/3 o f t h e s u b s i d y u n d e r t h e A d m i n ­
i s t r a t i o n ' s proposed F a m i l y A s s i s t a n c e Plan
and Foo d S t a m p P r o g r a m (FAP-FSP) w o u l d be
dev o t e d to the p u r c h a s e of i n c r e a s e d l e i ­
s u r e by t h e m a l e h e a d s o f p a r t i c i p a t i n g
f a m i l i e s among the wor k i n g poor.
These
m a l e h e a d s w o u l d r e d u c e t h e i r h o u r s of
work by a b o u t 20%, t h o u g h lab o r ' s c o n t r i ­
b u t i o n to n a t i o n a l o u t p u t w o u l d b e r e d u c e d
by o n l y 0.03%.
F o r fa m i l i e s e l i g i b l e for
FSP but not for F A P , the s u b s i d y would
b r i n g n o n e t i n c r e a s e in f a m i l y i n c o m e .
State supplements would aff e c t total
FAP-FSP program costs negatively.
13 pp.
(LC)

368
-98-

P-4570
R e f o r m i n g R e n t C o n t r o l in N o w
York City;
T h e R o l e of R e s e a r c h ' in
Policy Making.
I. S. L o w r y .
November
19 7 0 .
T h e t e x t of a b r i e f i n g p r e p a r e d for R a n d ' s
B o a r d o f T r u s t e e s on N o v e m b e r 13, 19 7 0 .
I t d e s c r i b e s t h e r o l e of t h e N e w York. C i t y Rand I nstitute and other research g roups
i n t h e rent, c o n t r o l r e f o r m s e n a c t e d by
t h e N e w Y o r k C i t y c o u n c i l in J u n e 1 970,
s u m m a r i z e s the m a j o r r e s e a r c h and a n a l y t i ­
cal s t u d i o s p e r f o r m e d in th i s c o n n e c t i o n
by I n s t i t u t e staff members, and offers
som e l e s s o n s for those c o n t e m p l a t i n g s i m i ­
l a r w o r k for p u b l i c a g e n c i e s .
18 pp.
(A u t h o r )

P— 4573-1
L o v e a n d L i f e b e t w e e n the
Censuses.
M. N e r l o v e , T. P. S c h u l t z .
H a y 1971.
A s i m u l t a n e o u s equation model for various
d e m o g r a p h i c e c o n o m i c b e h a v i o r -l i n k e d t o
the family f o r mation process is described.
It p r e d i c t s fertility, re g i o n a l migration,
pe r s o n a l incomes, legal and cons e n s u a l
m a r r i a g e s , and w o m e n ' s p a r t i c i p a t i o n in
t he l a b o r force as j o i n t l y d e t e r m i n e d
f u n c t i o n s of d e a t h r a t e s , i n d u s t r i a l s t r u c ­
ture, e d u ca ti on , and u n e m p l o y m e n t .
The
m o d e l i s b a s e d on d a t a o b t a i n e d f r o m c o n ­
t e m p o r a r y c e n s u s a n d v i t a l s t a t i s t i c s f or
75 m u n i c i p i o s of P u e r t o R i c o .
19 pp.
( A uthor)

P-4582
D o e s P o p u l a t i o n A d j u s t to the
Environment?
A Comment.
T. P.
Schultz.
F e b r u a r y 1971.
C o m m e n t s e v o k e d by a p a p e r p r e s e n t e d a t
the D e c e m b e r 1970 A m e r i c a n E c o n o m i c s As­
s o c i a t i o n m e e t i n g s by P r o f e s s o r R i c h a r d A.
Easterlin.
I’
ast.erlin ' s t h e s i s t h a t m a n ' s
r e p r o d u c t i v e b e h a v i o r r e s p o n d s to his
e n v i r o n m e n t i s n o t yet a c c e p t e d by a l l
those concerned with r e d u c i n g popu l a t i o n
growth.
While E a s t erlin's hypotheses ap­
p e a r s o u n d , lie h a s n o t p r o v e d t h a t t h e y
a c c o u n t for fertility d i f f e r e n c e s over
t i m e a n d a m o n g 7 U.S . C e n s u s r e g i o n s ;
quite different conceptual and statistical
a p p r o a c h e s a r e n e e d e d t o d o so.
A simul­
t a n e o u s e q u a t i o n s t e c h n i j u e is r e q u i r e d to
express, and a formal s t atistical model
to test, the c o m p l e x m u l t i f a c e t e d h y p o t h e ­
sis.
A s e r i e s o f R a n d s t u d i e s (R - 6 4 3 ,
RM-5405, RF-5970, RM-5981, RH-6322,
R M - 6 3 B 5 , P - 4 4 4 9) h a v e u n r a v e l e d w h a t a p ­
p e a r to b e e c o n o m i c d e t e r m i n a n t s of f a m i l y
size.
These suggest that the fe r t i l i t y
d i f f e r e n t i a l s may reflect child m ortality
r a t e s a n d the v a l u e of the m o t h e r s 1 time
more than the c o s t s of c h i l d r earing.
7 pp.
(MW)




P-4539
F i f t y M o r e T i m e l y P r o b l e m . of
the E n v i r o n m e n t .
L. H. L i b b y .
March
1971.
A s e q u e l to P-4415, w ith b r i e f d e s c r i p t i o n s
of 50 e n v i r o n m e n t a l p r o b l e m s c o m p i l e d
from p u b l i c a t i o n s such as Air and W a t er
N e w s , E x p l o r e r s J o u r n al, C i v i l E n g i n e e r i n g.
E n g i n e e r i n i H e w s - R e c o r d , S c i e n c e , M a t u re,
and m a j o r n e w s p a p e r s , a n d s u g g e s t i o n s for
r e s e a r c h on each.
T h i s pa p e r , like its
p r e d e c e s s o r , i s s u i t a b l e f o r .use in g r o u p s
such as lay d i s c u s s i o n g r o u p s a n d high
school classes.
Topics include earthquakeresistant structures; noise pollution;
fog c o n t r o l ; s m o g d a m a g e to c r o p s ; m e r c u r y
contamination; water resources, pollution,
an d t r e a t m e n t ; land use; o r b i t i n g s p a c e
junk; e c o l o g i c a l c h a n g e s f r o m d a m s and
n e w w a t e r w a y s ; a r s e n i c a n d e n z y m e s in
detergents; tanker submarines; dredged
sludge; w a ste c o l l e c t i o n and disposal;
Arctic oil rights; land sinkage; s u p e r ­
s o n i c d a m a g e to o ld b r i c k a nd stone;
t r a d e o f f s b e t w e e n tal l s m o k e s t a c k s and
SO?-reraoving equipment; STOL airports;
p o l yvinyl plumbing for e a r t h q u a k e areas;
p o s s i b i l i t y of s t o c k i n g l a k e s w i t h n o r t h e r n
R u s s i a n f i s h a d a p t e d to eut.rophied a n d
p o l l u t e d water.
66 pp.
(MW)

P-4590
O p t i m i z a t i o n of P r i c e and
Q u a l i t y in S e r v i c e S y s t e m s .
J. C.. W i r t .
M a r c h 1971.
D i s c u s s i o n of t e c h n i q u e s f o r q u a n t i t a t i v e
d e t e r m i n a t i o n of the o p t i m a l p r i c e s and
service q u a l i t y in a wide cl a s s of systems.
A p r o b a b i l i s t i c d e m a n d m o d e l s e n s i t i v e to
bo t h p r i c e a nd q u a l i t y is d e r i v e d fr o m t h e
m i c r o e c o n o m i c concept that a consumer
c h o o s e s the s e r v i c e t h a t m a x i m i z e s the
d i f f e r e n c e b e t w e e n w i l l i n g n e s s to p a y a n d
price.
T h i s m o d e l i s t h e n a g g r e g a t e d to
obtain a partial equilibrium macroeconomic
m o d e l of demand.
A B a y e s i a n t e c h n i q u e is
d e v e l o p e d fo r u s i n g d a t a t o r e d u c e u n c e r ­
tainty about consumers' values.
Following
this, c r i t e r i a a r e l i s t e d for o p t i m i z i n g
prices and choosing among alternative
q u a l i t i e s of ser v i c e .
A stochastic ap­
p r o x i m a t i o n i s a p p l i e d t.o f i n d i n q o p t i m a l
p r i c e s in s e r v i c e s y s t e m s ; i n t h e c a s e s
t e s t e d , o n l y a m a r g i n a l i n c r e a s e in a g g r e ­
g a t e s o c i a l w e l f a r e is o b t a i n e d f r o m e s t a b ­
lishing multiple priorities.
A major
s h i f t o c c u r s , h o w e v e r , in t h e i n c i d e n c e o f
benefits.
184 pp.
Ref.
(KB)

P-U598
T h e R o l e o f M i g r a t i o n in C a l i ­
f o r n i a ’ Growth.
s
P. A. M o r r i s o n .
Mav
19 7 1 .
T r a c e s the d e v e l o p m e n t of C a l i f o r n i a ’
s
p op u l a t i o n , with s pe c i a l e m p h a s i s on the
m i g r a t i o n c o m p o n e n t of i t s g r o w t h .
Sepa­
r a t e s e c t i o n s a r e d e v o t e d to (1) t r e n d s

369
-99-

m t d e r w a y in t h e s t a t e a n d t h e i r r e l a t i o n
t o n a t i o n a l p a t t e r n s ; (2) t h e h i s t o r i c a l
r o l e o f C a l i f o r n i a ' s m i g r a t i o n ; (3) i n d i ­
cations of a differentiated urban system
c o m p o s e d of s e v e r a l d o m i n a n t ce n t e r s that
attract p opulation from e v ery region and
d i s t r i b u t e it a m o n g C a l i f o r n i a ' s o t h e r
B d t r o p o l i t a n a r e a s ; (4) t h e s e l e c t i v e
c h a r a c t e r of s t a t e - w i d e m i g r a t o r y growth;
(5) h i g h l i g h t s o f r e c e n t r e s e a r c h o n m i ­
g r a n t s a nd their o r i g i n s and d e s t i n ations;
a n d (6) i a p l i c a t i o n s o f t h e a b o v e f o r s t a t e
p o p u l a t i o n policy.
35 pp.
(Author)

t e r m r e s e a r c h a n d e x p e r i m e n t a t i o n to
b r i d g e g a p s in p r e s e n t k n o w l e d g e of r e ­
lationships between police r e s o u r c e s and
police effectiveness.
11 p p .
(SH)

P-Q599
Where Will All the People Go?
How Much Will They Dump When They Get
There?— Population Distribution, Envi­
r o n mental Damage, and the Q u a lity of
Life.
A. H. P a s c a l .
M a r c h 19 7 1 .
A speech proposing that the affluent so­
c i e t y is m o r e a n d m ore the e f f l u e n t s o ­
ciety, an d that the q u a l i t y of e x i s t e n c e
w i l l be a f u n c t i o n of t h e g e o g r a p h i c d i s ­
tribution of the American population.
The
s p e e c h a d v o c a t e s a l o n g-term research prog r a n o n t h e n a t u r e of p o p u l a t i o n d i s t r i b u ­
t i o n as i t a f f e c t s n a t u r e a n d so ci et y.
The rese a r c h would be directed at five
tasks:
(1) f o r e c a s t i n g t h e s p a t i a l s e t t l e «#»nt p a t t e r n f o r the T1-S- p o p u l a t i o n i n
2 0 0 0 A . D . ; (2) e s t i m a t i n g t h e t h r e a t t o
t h e e n v i r o n m e n t ; (3) s p e c i f y i n g e n v i r o n ­
m e n t a l q u a l i t y s t a n d a r d s ; (4) i d e n t i f y i n g
a n d a s s e s s i n g p o l i c y m e c h a n i s m s ; a n d (5)
c a l c u l a t i n g the ma g n i t u d e and i n c i d e n c e
of costs.
6 pp.
(SH)

P-4625
Predicting the Demand for Fire
Service.
J. C h a i k e n , J. E. R o l p h .
Hay 1971.
An a n a l y s i s of H Y C f i r e a l a r m d i s t r i b u t i o n ,
a d e s c r i p t i o n o f s o m e a n a l y t i c a l 'm e t h o d s ,
a n d a n e x a m p l e o f an a p p l i c a t i o n o f e s t i ­
mated alarm i n c i d e n c e rates.
Data show
s t e a d y e x p o n e n t i a l in c r e a s e s in n o n s t r u c taral fires, e x c l u d i n g brush fires.
Using
a P o i s s o n d i s t r i b u t i o n , the a u t h o r s d e ­
s c r i b e a method for s h o r t - t e r m pr e d i c t i o n
of i n c i d e n c e rates for var i o u s t y pes of
f i r e a l a r m s a s a f u n c t i o n of l o c a t i o n ,
t i m e , m e t h o d of r e p o r t i n g , a n d w e a t h e r .
P r e d i c t e d i n c i d e n c e a p p l i c a t i o n s a r e as
v a r i e d as l o n g - t e r m p r o b l e m s o f n e w
s t a t i o n - h o u s e location, s e l e c t i o n of r e ­
l o c ation and preposi t i o n i n g strategies,
a nd a c t u a l d i s p a t c h i n g of u n i t s to i n c o m i n g
alarms.
The exa m p l e a d d r e s s e s the problem:
G i v e n the l o c a t i o n a nd n u m b e r o f u n i t s to
be dispatched, which sho u l d be as s i g n e d
to a particular alarm?
Results include
(1) f o r m u l a s f o r u n i t w o r k l o a d a n d a v e r a g e
r e s p o n s e time to all i n c i d e n t s as a f u n c ­
t i o n o f r e s p o n s e d i s t r i c t s ; (2) d e t e r m i n a ­
t i o n of a d i s t r i c t b o u n d a r y t h a t m i n i m i z e s
a v e r a g e r e s p o n s e t i m e ; (3) c o n d i t i o n s
w h e r e i n the e q u i d i s t a n t b o u n d a r y i s d o m i ­
n a t e d by oth e r s .
31 pp .
(See a l s o R - 5 3 2 . )
(SH)

P-4614
A i d s t o D e c i s i o n m a k i n g in
Police Patrol:
An O v e r v i e w o f S t u d y
Findings.
J. S. K a k a l i k , S. W i l d h o r n .
M a r c h 197 1 .
K s u m m a r y o f f i n d i n g s in a 5 - m o n t h s t u d y
of police patrol.
With increasing demands
on l imited funds, d e c i s i o n m a k i n g aids are
n e e d e d t o d e t e r m i n e (1) p r o p e r p a t r o l
f o r c e s t r e n g t h ; (2) e q u i t a b l e a n d e f f e c ­
tive d i s t r i b u t i o n of p a t r o l s e r v i c e s by
p o l i c e d i s t r i c t a n d t o u r o f d u t y ; (3) e f ­
fective o perational policies and tactics
for p o l i c e patrol.
I n c r e a s e s in p o l i c e
s t r e n g t h h a v e n o t k e p t p a c e w i t h t h o s e in
r eported crime, a l t hough they have o ut­
paced population change.
This study sug­
g e s t s t h a t p o l i c e d e p a r t m e n t s (1) e m p l o y
m u l t i p l e c r i t e r i a in d e c i s i o n m a k i n g ; (2)
use a more c o m p r e h e n s i v e a p p r o a c h to
p o l i c e - r e s o u r c e a l l o c a t i o n , by p r e d i c t i n g
d e m a n d for services, by p r e v e n t i n g as well
a s r e s p o n d i n g to c r ime, a n d by u s i n g
s i m u l t a n e o u s criteria to ensure maintenance
o f m i n i m u m s e r v i c e l e v e l s ; (3) c o l l e c t
m a n a g e m e n t - o r i e n t e d d a t a ; (4) h i r e c o m ­
p e t e n t c i v i l i a n p l a n n e r s w i t h a c c e s s to
t o p p o l i c e m a n a g e m e n t ; (5) u n d e r t a k e l o n g ­

P-4630
Unresolved Questions about Popu­
lation Distribution Policy:
An Agenda
for Further Research.
P. A. M o r r i s o n .
A p r i l 1971.
Current thinking about population distri­
bu t i o n c o n f u s e s t h e p r e s s u r e of t o o m a n y
p e o p l e with the c o n s e q u e n c e s of t h e i r m a l ­
distribution.
T o p r o m o t e t he d e s i g n of a
n ational urban p o p u lation distri b u t i o n
p o l i c y , it is n e c e s s a r y to d e f i n e the p r o b ­
lems, i d e n t i f y p r e f e r a b l e a l t e r n a t i v e s , and
d ev e l o p potential strategies for i n f l u e n c ­
i n g d i s t r i l .cion.
Within these areas, 6
tasks are suggested:
(1) p r o j e c t f u t u r e
d i s t r i b u t i o n p a t t e r n s ; (2) i d e n t i f y t h e
economic, social, and e n v i r o n m e n t a l c o n s e ­
q u e n c e s of p r o j e c te d d i s t r i b u t i o n p at te rn s ;
(3) e v a l u a t e a n t i c i p a t e d c o n s e q u e n c e s o f
alt e r n a t i v e s by studying regional and
city-size populations with both low- and
h i g h - d e n s i t y p a t t e r n s ; (4) a n a l y z e " h i d d e n
p o l i c i e s , " i.e., s e c o n d a r y e f f e c t s of e x ­
i s t i n g f e d e r a l p r o g r a m s on p o p u l a t i o n d i s t r i b u u t i o n ; (5) a n a l y z e i n d i v i d u a l a n d a g ­
g r e g a t e d y n a m i c s of the mob i l i t y process,
distinguishing forces that m o bilize and
retain population or reinforce selected




370
-1 0 0 -

■ i g r a t i o n s t r e a m s ; (6) i d e n t i f y n a t u r a l
growth centers, exploring existent success­
f ul p r o c e s s e s of ch a n g e .
3 p p.
(SM)

P - 4 6 33
D e s igning for Security.
M. I.
Liechenstein.
A p r i l 1971.
T h e s i g n i f i c a n t role t h a t t o t a l p r o j e c t
p l a n n i n g an d d e s i g n m a y p l a y in s e c u r i n g
g r e a t e r personal safety in future housing
is considered.
The paper f o c u s e s on the
l a c k of c o o r d i n a t i o n a m o n g a r c h i t e c t s ,
s e c u r i t y experts, and social p s ychologists
d u r i n g tho c r u c i a l p l a n n i n g p h a s e s of new
c o n s t r u c t i o n , in o r d e r to s t i m u l a t e f u r ­
t her r e search and a c t i o n along an a v e ­
nue that appears most f r u i t f u l for pre­
v e n t i n g c r i m e and e n h a n c i n g public
well-being.
T h i s w o r k is p a r t of a b r o a d e r
s t u d y on i m p r o v i n g s a f e t y i n u r b a n
h i g h - r i s e h o u s i n g that w as s p o n s o r e d by
Mayor Lindsay’ Criminal Justice Coordinat­
s
i n g C o u n c i l d u r i n g 1969.
17 pp.
Ref.
(Author)

P— 4 645
Housing Assistance for Low-Income Urban Families:
A Fresh Approach.
I. S. L o w r y .
M a y 1971.
A p r o p o s a l for a g e n e r a l p r o gram of housing
as£ii»lciiice f o r i o w - x n e o m e f a m i l i e s in
ce n t r a l urban areas.
Neither new housing
n o r m a j o r r e h a b i l i t a t i o n is a p p r o p r i a t e or
e c o n o m i c a l for the needs of t h ese families.
Instead, t h i s p r o p o s a l r e s p o n d s to t h e most
c r i t i c a l problem:
too,little effective
d e m a n d for ad e q u a t e m a i n t e n a n c e o f exi s t i n g
older buildinys.
T h e p l a n i s d e s i g n e d to
p r o v i d e (1) m o d e s t i m p r o v e m e n t s t o e x i s t ­
i n g h o u s i n g ; (2) e q u a l a s s i s t a n c e f o r a l l




e l i g i b l e f a m i l i e s based on a s l i d i n g perc e n t - o f - i n c o r a e f o r m u l a ; (3) r e n t c e r t i f i ­
c a t e s — a n e w d e v i c e to a s s i s t l o w - i n c o m e
f a m i l i e s to find t h e i r o w n h o u s i n g , d e a l i n g
d i r e c t l y w i t h t h e l a n d l o r d ; (*») a c o n t i n ­
u o u s c h e c k on h o u s i n g q u a l i t y .
The plan
p r o h i b i t s t ho use of p u b l i c f u n d s fo r s u b ­
sidy of substandard units and creates in­
c e n t i v e s f o r b o t h l a n d l o r d s a n d t e n a n t s to
c o o p e r a t e in h o u s i n g m a i n t e n a n c e and i m ­
provement.
57 p p .
(SM)

P-4671
Neighborhood Government.
D- T.
Y a t e s , Jr .
Jul y 1971.
Advocacy of neighborhood g overnment should
b e b a s e d o n a c a r e f u l a s s e s s n e ;t o f p o s ­
s i b l e dangers and deficiencies, as well
as merits.
T h e o b s t a c l e s to i n c r e a s i n g
n e i g h b o r h o o d p o w e r i n c l u d e t h e c o s t s of
c o m m u n i t y o r g a n i z i n g in t e r m s o f time a nd
effort, community conflict, c i t y -neighborhood conflict, and g e n e r a l p o l i t i c a l c o n ­
flict.
To persuade individuals to engage
i n c o l l e c t i v e a c t i o n , i t i s n e c e s s a r y that,
the r e w a r d s of s u c h a c t i o n be g r e a t e r tha n
the p e r s o n a l costs.
Serious participation
is l i k e l y to o c c u r o n l y when n e i g h b o r h o o d
government programs offer visible rewards
a nd w o r k to s o l v e c o n c r e t e p r o b l e m s .
There
i s a s p e c i f i c a w a r e n e s s t h a f many u n i o n s
and pol i t i c i a n s will fight nei g h b o r h o o d
g o v e r n m e n t a n d t h a t t h e y h a v e the p o w e r to
d a m a g e o r d e s t r o y i t.
T h e r e is a l s o the
sense that, w h e r e a s t h ere has been s u c c e s s
in d e v e l o p i n g c o m m u n i t y s t r u c t u r e s , it has
been difficult to move government toward
decentralization, toward more flexible
administrative procedures.
13 pp.
Ref.
(KB)

371
Mr. A s h l e y . Thank you very much, Mayor Mineta.
I must say that this strikes me as one of the boldest, most articulate,
and most thoughtful statements that this subcommittee has received
from any public interest group. I heartily congratulate you upon it.

Mayor M i n e t a . Thank you very much, Mr. Ashley.
Mr. A s h l e y . It is a courageous statement because, of course, the
statement is not without its indictments, muted or softened though
they may and must be.

You say, for example, throughout your statement, that the leverage
exerted by Federal activity has enormously benefited our private sec­
tor, yet it also has had very, very unfortunate results in terms of the
ability of the private sector to plan coherently for growth in our
cities and our suburbs, and, indeed, in our rural areas, too.
You say that this urban policy, if it can be called such, is an acci­
dental policy, that it is largely of Federal making, and that it is largely
one of inadvertence. It seems to me that in many respects there was not
very much that local communities could do to control their own devel­
opment. The F H A program, for example, is one that is not a Federalcity program; it is a Federal-private sector program. Wouldn’t you
agree with me that in many respects communities, particularly in that
volatile postwar period, were, in effect, the innocent victims of this
rather thoughtless, at least in terms of its ultimate ramifications,
Federal policy?

Mayor M i n e t a . There is no question that with the accumulated cash
and other fiscal financial resources that were available following the
Second World War, with the FHA policies as they existed at the time,
that they did allow for communities like San Jose to grow. These poli­
cies encouraged developments such as Levittown and many, many
other similar communities across the country.
Mr. A s h l e y . I am going to call on Mr. Brown now, but before I do
I would say this. Of course, your area of greatest knowledge is San
Jose.
Mayor M

in e t a .

Yes, sir.

Mr. A s h l e y . But the fact of the matter is that you are familiar with
other communities and you do speak this morning for the U.S. Con­
ference of Mayors and the National League of Cities.
Mayor M in e t a . That is correct.
Mr. A s h l e y . And so your statement represents the thinking not only
of the mayor of San Jose with the problems which you have described
with such persuasion, but indeed of many other communities, includ­
ing Toledo, Ohio, that some of us are familiar with.
Mayor M i n e t a . That is correct.
Mr. A s h l e y . Mr. Brown.
Mr. B r o w n . Thank you, Mr. Chairman, and thank you, Mayor
Mineta. May I echo the comments of the chairman, I think it
is a very fine statement. I think that you have gotten to the heart of
the problem better than most have and it is an analysis that I have
felt should have been made in many other areas; that is, we need to
look at the ramifications of our tax laws to see what impact they have
had on many of our problems. I have said we ought to look at the
deductibility of interest, for instance, in worrying about the flow of
money in tight money times to the high-interest payers because the
Federal Government is subsidizing 50 percent of its cost through its




372
tax laws. That is why you don’t get money into individual mortgages.
We attempt to come up in a vacuum with an urban growth policy and
ignore all of those things that are diametrically opposed to the very
policy we are attempting to create. They are disincentives to carrying
out that policy.
One thing you didn’t mention in your statement; you didn’t talk
about the property tax, about the whole idea of an ad valorem tax
which says that if you improve your property, you have to pay more
taxes. Our tax laws are disincentive to improvement of property in
the inner cities. You improve your property and you have to pay more
tax. Maybe we should provide that if you improve your property you
will pay less in taxes.
Mayor M i n e t a . That specific approach is one we are looking into
at this moment in California. Under our State assessment laws, we
might try to distinguish between capital improvements on the home
and what might be termed “plain maintenance.” One of the things our
current assessments procedure is doing is to create a negative influence
on people who invest in maintenance activity, a disincentive which en­
courages the deterioration of properties.
Mr. B r o w n . But once again you have covered that in your statement
because probably you have a State law on property taxation that is an
ad valorem tax.
Mayor M i n e t a . That is right.
Mr. B r o w n . Y ou have to assess at value. So you have no authority
really to reverse the tendency to let properties decline in value in the
inner city through providing a tax incentive for improvements.
Mayor M i n e t a . That is correct.
Mr. B r o w n . S o once again you are hamstrung there.
Mayor M i n e t a . Yes, sir.
Mr. B r o w n . I must get to the floor. Again I want to thank you for
your statement.
Mayor M in e t a . Thank you.
Mr. B r o w n . Thank you, Mr. Chairman.
Mr. A s h l e y . Mr. Stephens.
Mr. S t e p h e n s . Thank you, Mr. Chairman.
Mayor Mineta, I am delighted to see you here in Washington and
also to have the opportunity of hearing the fine statement you have
made.
I might point out to you, Mr. Ashley, that in the population growth
figures, between 1965 and 1972, there is an increase from 328,300 to
471,400. I f it hadn’t been for my daughter and her husband who moved
out there, there would have been only 471,398.
Mr. Mayor, I am pleased to renew the acquaintanceship we have
had and to say that I believe you have brought forward some things
that very desperately needed to be said. In some ways, as I read what
you have pointed out, it sounded a little like John C. Calhoun in the
era before the War Between the States and the States rights issue.
But I do agree that what you have said is true, that the decisions that
have affected urban growth are made here in Washington. There has
been, definitely, a direct attempt to supervise, so to speak, from Wash­
ington, to bypass everybody in between the Washington scene and the
mayors of cities.




373
President Johnson, as you will recall, designated Vice President
Humphrey as a direct liaison between the U.S. Government and the
mayors of cities. And, in addition to that, there has been a direct chan­
nel between Washington and private enterprise. In other words, when
a developer would like to get into development, he finds out what the
zoning laws are and he doesn’t necessarily consult with the mayor and
the council. He goes directly to the Federal authorities and they ap­
prove or disapprove what he has to offer.
Now, Mr. Ashley has had ad hoc hearings and we have discussed
at great length the development of area planning. We are in the pres­
ent housing bill going to propose a pilot project. Mr. Eckfield was
with us in hearings we had in Dayton. I think that w e are searching
^
for some way to get around the policymaking being so drastically per­
formed by Washington.
But, as you say, it is inadvertently done. We all know that only
600,000 of the 2.6 million housing units we need are going to be built
under direct Government subsidy. Mr. Romney has made it abun­
dantly clear that 2 million units are going to have to be built by pri­
vate enterprise. We have got to do what you say to work together,
local governmental entities and the Federal Government, in order to
effect some more effective growth management.
I think your statement brings out as clearly as any that I have seen
in a long time— or ever— that there has to be more cooperation be­
tween all of us. I for one believe that major development should be
the responsibility of our private sector, but that the private sector
must be provided proper public guidance.
I like the statement very much and I do agree that the policymaking
in taxes and otherwise has certainly affected development patterns.
Mayor M i n e t a . Thank you.
Mr. S t e p h e n s . I will remind you of a story about the little girl
who wrote a letter to God. It got into the dead-letter office in Wash­
ington and was opened. The little girl’s letter said: “Please! We
are having trouble. I need $100. My father is sick and my mother is
trying to work. We need $100 to eat on.” The fellow felt bad about it
but he couldn’t send $100. He sent $5. A fewTmonths later there came
a letter addressed to God and it got to the same clerk in the dead-letter
office, from the same little girl. He opened it up and she said: “Dear
God: Thank you very much for sending me the $100 but the next time
don’t send it through Washington, D.C., because they took out $95
before I got it.”
I think that is part of our problem. Thank you very much for being
here and I will look forward to seeing you soon.
Mayor M i n e t a . Thank you very much, Mr. Stephens.
Mr. A s h l e y . Let me ju st ask one or tw o questions in conclusion.
On page 8 of your statement, you say that Federal mortgage policy
facilitated individual moves, yet ignored the consequences of the over­
all movement. The Report on National Growth 1972, issued earlier
this year, puts understandable but nonetheless great emphasis on the
proper role of individual decisionmaking. I think that you, without
commenting specifically on the growth report, and on that particular
aspect of it, point out emphatically that the consequences of overall
movement that are reflected in the sum total of individual decisions




374
does have enormous implications and spawns enormous problems. I
think that was really overlooked in the growth report.
What you say and I think what Mr. Stephens has indicated agree­
ment with is that where people live and how they live is really a mat­
ter of public, as well as private, decisionmaking. And I might say
further that in many respects this is true not only with respect to our
assisted housing programs, but with respect to our unassisted housing
programs as well, because in toto these units determine where people
in fact are going to live. And at the present time, of course, these
decisions, even with regard to the section 235 and 236 programs, and
indeed our public housing programs, are the decisions almost entirely
of private decisionmakers who have a very, very direct pecuniary in­
terest in the outcome or the results of their decisions.
Mayor M in e t a . Mr. Chairman, the summation, I think, of those in­
dividual moves has created a situation in which, as I recall the figures,
something like 73.5 percent of the population lives on 1.53 percent of
the land mass here in the United States. I think this is the kind of sig­
nificant result that we have had from this inadvertent “national urban
policy.”
Mr. A s h l e y . What you are saying is that the magnet that has drawn
people to this very small land mass is a private sector magnet.
Mayor M i n e t a . That is correct.
Mr. A s h l e y . Not a combination of private and public sector?
Mayor M i n e t a . That is right.
Mr. A s h l e y . I quite agree with you.
Let me finally ask you this: On page 14 of your testimony, you
say “yet it is clear that F H A has had far more impact on American
housing conditions than all of the moneys going into low-income hous­
ing projects.”
To my mind, the implication of that statement and the implied
thrust really of your entire testimony seems to be that regional F H A
operations should be subject in some way to a national urban growth
policy.
To some extent I think that we at least tried to approach this in the
housing bill that the subcommittee has just recommended. In effect
what we have tried to do there is to provide a more stringent basic
mortgage amount which the F H A is authorized to insure, but then
allow for a more liberal amount where the particular property will
significantly contribute to the comprehensively planned development
of the area in which it is located.
Clearly this is only a small and, as you would say, piddling step
in the direction in which your testimony and my thinking tends to go,
but I would like to have such comments as you might want to offer
T
with respect to this effort.
Mayor M i n e t a . One of the things that that provision would give us
at the local level is a handle on planning by which, through a carrot
and stick mechanism, we could encourage superior design. It is a ques­
T
tion of stimulating the development of comprehensive design or com­
prehensive planning procedures. I think that what the proposal is, is
a fine tuning of a specific aspect of an overall urban policy. I think
there are bigger, broader areas of concern, but this is the kind of fine
tuning that we can use in the short run.




375
Mr. A s h l e y . I think you are right. What you are saying is that since
we really haven’t been able to come to grips with the major considera­
tions in housing location, that instead we try to do it in this way,
which is really allowing the tail to wag the dog in many respects.
Mayor M in e t a . In fact, I guess another way to put it is that it is a
band-aid approach to a greater problem.
Mr. A s h l e y . Well, I can only say that I agree with you. I will say
this in conclusion: I can’t think of any testimony that more clearly
,focuses on such urgent problem areas. I think that when it is compared
with the Report on National Growth, 1972, and other such documents,
the very real significance of your testimony will be realized. I am
pleased to say that we do look forward to issuing a report later this
year which will contain the testimony before this subcommittee and
other statements furnished for the record. We expect that that will
receive very broad distribution and your contribution will be among
those most highly prized, I can assure you.
Mayor M in e t a . Thank you very much, Mr. Chairman.
Mr. A s h l e y . Thank you, Mr. Mayor.
The subcommittee will stand adjourned until 2 o’clock this after­
noon.
(Whereupon, at 12:15 p.m., the hearing was recessed, to reconvene
at 2 p.m. the same day.)
A

fter n o o n

S ession

Mr. A s h l e y . The subcommittee will come to order.
We are continuing the subcommittee’s hearings on national growth
policies and this afternoon our witnesses will be Prof. Alan Rabinowitz, University of Washington, Seattle, Wash., with the American
Institute of Planners; Mr. Stanley Waranch, president of the Na­
tional Association of Home Builders; and Mr. Albert A. Walsh,
president, National Association of Housing and Redevelopment Offi­
cials. Other members have indicated that they will be here shortly, but
because we do have three witnesses this afternoon I think it is best
if we start at this time. Professor Rabinowitz, if you would be good
enough to step forward.
Your statement, I see, has an addendum with respect to A IP ’s posi­
tion on the National Growth Report, 1972. Without objection that
document will be inserted into the record following your statement.
STATEMENT OF ALAN RABINOWITZ, PROFESSOR, UNIVERSITY OF
WASHINGTON, SEATTLE, ON BEHALF OF THE AMERICAN INSTI­
TUTE OF PLANNERS; ACCOMPANIED BY ALBERT L. MASSONI,
DIRECTOR OF NATIONAL AFFAIRS, AMERICAN INSTITUTE OF
PLANNERS

Mr. R a b i n o w i t z . Thank you very much, Mr. Chairman. I am Alan
Rabinowitz, member of the American Institute of Planners and mem­
ber of its task force on national development policy and after many
years of living in the East I am now associate professor of urban plan­
ning, University of Washington.




376
We have submitted a prepared statement for the record and for the
sake of brevity I would like your permission merely to highlight cer­
tain aspects of it in testimony this afternoon.
Mr. A s h l e y . We will place your full statement in the record. You
may proceed.
Mr. R a b in o w it z . Fine; thank you very much.
On behalf of the membership of the institute, I would like to thank
the committee for the opportunity to appear and present our views on
the various issues, both explicit and implied, in the President’s First
Report on National Growth, and challenges the Congress must face in
the interim before the next such report.
Mr. A s h l e y . Would you care to identify for the record-----Mr. R a b i n o w i t z . Accompanying me today is Albert L. Massoni, di­
rector of national affairs for the institute.
We would like to commend the subcommittee for its continuing in­
terest in urban growth policy. Testimony this morning by Mayor
Mineta and Arthur Davis are a fine beginning and I see the rest of
the schedule is going to contain a very representative group of Ameri­
cans.
Two years ago when our institute appeared before this committee
in support of the Urban Growth and New Community Development
Act of 1970 we stressed the urgent need for this country to begin de­
veloping a national growth policy.
The final bill passed by this committee and the 91st Congress was
consistent with the objectives of the American Institute of Planners.
It declared that “the Federal Government * * * must assume respon­
sibility for the development of a national urban growth policy * *
As this committee well knows, the past 2 years have been a time of
dramatic change in the institutions of government that are concerned
with domestic issues, and a national urban growth policy, which would
never have been easy to formulate or articulate in the best of circum­
stances, is even more needed today than it ever was. And more than
ever we need something more than just an inventory of Federal, State,
and local agencies and a list of pious hopes. We need both thought­
ful leadership and effective forums for reconciling deep differences of
opinion.
There has been a good deal of testimony before the fact that the
President’s first report left a great deal to be desired. Without going
into the details of our position paper, we noted that it avoided the
hard questions and rehashed familiar statistics.
Let me be specific about what we felt the deficiencies are. This will
be short, because we want to speak on what should happen from now
on.
First. It fails to show leadership by the executive branch in defining
a comprehensive policy; indeed, the report says no such policy is ap­
propriate, and the Domestic Council even goes so far as to reject the
call for an urban growth policy report in favor of a report on national
growth, a significantly different matter which is itself hardly treated
in the report.
Second. It fails to examine the implications of the giving of Federal
categorical programs in favor of State-local priorities and procedures.




377
Third. It fails to explain how affirmative Federal policies in hous­
ing, transportation, environmental improvement, and land-use con­
trol will be made to work.
Fourth. It fails to state what resources will be made available and
whether such resources will be adequate for the stated purposes.
Fifth. It fails to establish mechanisms by which many different
groups of people will be involved in the process by which decisions
concerning their urban environment will be made in the future.
I want to add to this last point before considering the future. It
is important here to say something about how citizens and community
groups should be involved in the planning process and it is important
to differentiate between the planning process and planners.
The lesson of the postwar era in governmental programs in the
urban field is the lesson that private enterprise learned long ago, that
the consumer is sovereign; the citizen-voter is the key to effective
planning and policymaking, and even the best-laid projects will come
to nought if the citizen-voter has not been sold on them. And citizens
have a way of voting with their feet as well as in the ballot box.
People have been leaving the rural nonurban areas for the last few
generations; there has to be more than a goal and a policy to bring
them back, if that is what we want; it will have to be clear to them
that there is a life worth living out there. Similarly, people have been
leaving the central cities for the suburbs since the turn of the century,
and this trend, more than anything else, is the most important politi­
cal fact of the 1970’s, especially as the one-man-one-vote rule changes
the composition of State legislatures.
The first point is that any governmental program, at either the
local. State, or Federal level, must be well thought out, w
^ell financed,
and well administered to have any chance at all of being implemented.
Any such program in housing, transportation, health services, educa­
tion, and environmental improvement must offer something significant
to the citizens, if it expects to change the system by which people lo­
cate their businesses, homes, and places for recreation.
Thus the second point is that governmental programs must be sold
to the citizen voters, and this means that, from the very beginning,
people must be involved in the program. This is particularly true
if we are trying to change a complex system that breaks down because
ordinary citizens continue to do the ordinary activities of life, buying
and selling property, going to work by car, and avoiding troubles,
taxes, and costs if they can.
So the process by which change and improvements will come to the
urban scene is all important. The process is far more important than
the plans themselves. The citizens must be heard, and it will take
great political leadership to make them listen and participate. Plan­
ners are people who want to help this process. A planner is not in­
terested in making a plan to be imposed on the system. He is some­
one equipped to help the process of intelligent democratic decision­
making. Yes, we need more rationality and comprehensiveness in the
planning process; yes, we need to improve the capacity of State and
local government in the area of “planning and management’-; and yes,
in the United States of the 1970’s we need to relv upon the democratic
process to get an urban growth policy which is comprehensive and




378
implementable. In fact, in order to get useful urban growth strategies
and policies, we need to improve both the legislative and executive
branches of all levels of government.
W e have very high standards for what we think may be included
in the next urban growth report and the ones thereafter. We believe
that work on that report should start today.
We urge both the Congress and the administration to put more of
their resources into the process immediately, so that the next report,
due in less than 2 years, will reflect greater achievement than the
President’s Report on National Growth 1972.
1. The report should show the relationship between the Nation’s
fiscal policies— including current thinking on revenue sharing, tax
credits, and guaranteed income— to national urban growth strategies.
And I think Mayor Mineta’s testimony this morning brought out
very strongly that there is an intimate connection between such fiscal
policies as tax shelter and what has happened to our urban areas.
2. The report should examine the costs and benefits of major ap­
proaches, showing, for example, how the net benefits of a dollar spent
in rural areas compares to a dollar spent in urban areas, or how a
dollar for housing compares to a dollar for transportation.
And on this I would like to also add that to get that kind of infor­
mation about how expenditures are really benefiting the system, we
need to have a good deal more of the kind of report that Mayor
Mineta talked about. I haven’t seen the Rand analysis, but it sounds
like it has gone into a wider range of subjects than most local plan­
ning reports, and I think it is something that deserves a good deal of
serious investigation. I think Mr. Davis this morning, in talking about
the possibility for alternative budgets on behalf of the executive de­
partment, also implies that there has to be the kind of thoughtful anal­
ysis which is pretty scarce.
3. The report should discuss the relationship between the local pub­
lic economy and the monetary system, particularly in reference to the
impact of inflation and recession on local efforts.
And I would like to add here that there may be an intimate rela­
tionship between the amount of money that the K ation has for revenue
sharing, if we adopt it, and the state of the economy, and one of the
choices we will have is whether we want to maintain a flow of money
to the local public economy for continuation of useful efforts.
4. The report should discuss the allocation of the Nation’s economic
resources, not only between the public and private sectors, but among
the various functional categories, such as community development, ed­
ucation, social welfare, and environmental quality.
5. The report is incomplete if it omits a forthright evaluation of
progress within the executive departments and the independent regu­
latory agencies.
A most important section of the report should be devoted to an
evaluation of the manner in which the partnership between the States
and the Federal Government is developing in the new era of national
urban growth policymaking. In the words of our critique:
Given the nature of the partnership between the Federal Government and the
States, who bear the constitutional responsibility for establishing local govern­
ments, a national urban growth policy requires that certain Federal funds be dis­
bursed by the States. A wise man will inquire about the stewardship of his part­




379
ners, and it is incumbent upon the Federal Government to evaluate each State’s
progress in supporting the objectives of national policy. The next National Urban
Growth Report, therefore, should contain an evaluation, State by State, of the
extent to which funds have been made available to local communities, the extent
of reorganization of State fiscal and administrative systems, and the extent to
which State and local agencies are planning together for the amelioration of
social-economic and physical problems in both metropolitan and rural areas. An
important part of the evaluation should be a consideration of the relative merit
of categorical and revenue-sharing programs.

We also believe that Congress can play an important role in evaluat­
ing the effectiveness of the process by which national urban goals are
being pursued. In effect, it is— in fact it has always been— Congress’
function to evaluate the success and failure of the legislation it has
passed— and the consequences of not passing legislation. This function
it performs in a number of different ways: Holding hearings, commis­
sioning reports by knowledgeable individuals, asking questions of the
Legislative Reference Service of the Library of Congress, and pro­
viding funds and leadership for such exemplary organizations as the
U.S. Advisory Commission on Intergovernmental Relations.
We submit that the flood of urban legislation and the prospect of
wholesale changes in organization of the executive branch and the
form of financial assistance by the Federal Government to the Statelocal sector requires a considerably higher level of congressional
stewardship than even before.
We should like to see a continuing joint committee established and
staffed to represent part of Congress’ interest in the subject. I believe
that idea was discussed this morning. Its role would be to analyze
national goals and growth policies of various legislative proposals.
The joint committee needs a high order of information and I would
like to point out that the hardest kind of information to get, the kind
that would be of most use to the committee, is qualitative rather than
quantitative information.
A congressional office of policy and planning would support the
joint committee and provide it with information and data.
The most critical form ojf qualitative information, in our opinion,
will be concerned with the readiness of State and local government to
function effectively under a system of revenue sharing, combined with
a new emphasis on metropolitan areas as the relevant territory in place
of the jurisdictional boundaries of separate cities or counties.
In our opinion, the only way a State can be ready to move effectively
in its own behalf in performing its constitutional function of establish­
ing necessary forms and procedures for local government is to have
an effective planning process as part of its legislative and executive
structure. It is clear to us that the criteria for such a process are more
stringent and less compartmentalized than they needed to be in former
years. I think I should also add there is no one particular stated pat­
tern of such structure and the work of the American Law Institute,
which you will hear testimony on, I guess tomorrow or the next day,
indicates the range of possibility. The important thing that is there bea real structure and a real possibility for interaction between the var­
ious units of government.
It is also clear to us that few States have established effective rela­
tionships between State, regional, metropolitan, county, city, and town
agencies within their State.




380
Without such a planning process for and within the State, it is hard
to believe that the State can be an adequate partner to the Federal
Government as it seeks to articulate and administer national strategies,
nor can it even be an adequate partner to its neighboring State. Thus,
without such a planning process, the A -95 review process and the other
elements of planning suggested by the Intergovernmental Cooperation
Act of 1968 may well be a mockery of Federal legislative and execu­
tive intentions.
This concept of each State’s readiness to handle present and future
problems is a touchy subject. The Federal Government cannot tell
its State and local partners what to do, but it is certainly entitled to
make a judgment about how well they are doing it, and Congress, in
addition, is able to use a carrot where it cannot use a stick. Just as
there might well turn out to be a bonus under the revenue-sharing acts
for those States with a certain form of fiscal system, a State income
tax, for instance, so there might also be a bonus in the distribution of
categorical or functional bloc grants for those States judged by Fed­
eral Government to have an effective planning and management struc­
ture in being.
It is this kind of qualitative information that we believe the Con­
gress must have available to it as it evaluates present and future
urban growth reports. Perhaps it can get the information it requires
from Federal departments. But we are not at all convinced that the
executive branch has pulled itself together effectively in order to con­
sider the goals and implication of all of the things it is doing. We would
like to urge that there be a central planning and development co­
ordination mechanism in the Executive Office of the President.
Just as the Joint Economic Committee works with the economic
agencies of the executive branch, so the Joint Urban Growth Policy
Committee of the Congress might work with a centralized part of
the executive.
Whatever the means chosen, we do believe that Congress and the
executive branch need to have better information about the effec­
tiveness of the State-local planning process upon which so much of
the national urban growth strategy is based. And we also believe that
Congress should make sure that adequate resources are available at
all levels of government for such effective planning-management
processes.
We thank you for the opportunity to present our views and would
be willing to provide the committee with any additional information.
Thank you.
(Mr. Rabinowitz’ prepared statement follows:)
P repared

S t a t e m e n t o f A l a n R a b i n o w i t z , AIP, o n B e h a l f
I n s t it u t e of P l a n n e r s

of

the

A m e r ic a n

Mr. Chairman and Members of the Committee, I am Alan Rabinowitz, Mem­
ber of the American Institute of Planners Task Force on National Development
Policy and Associate Professor of Urban Planning, University of Washington
in Seattle. The American Institute of Planners is the national professional plan­
ning organization devoted to the study and advancement of the art and science
of city, regional, state, and national comprehensive planning. The over 7,000 mem­
bers of the Institute have major responsibilities in government and in private
practice working with elected officials as well as with private organizations
whose actions and policies directly affect the quality of the national environment




381
and the development of the communities of this Nation. Accompanying me todaj
is Albert L. Massoni, Director of National Affairs for the Institute.
On behalf of the membership of the Institute, I would like to thank the Com­
mittee for the opportunity to appear and present our views on the various issues
both explicit and implied in the President’s First Report on National Growth,
and challenges the Congress must face in the interim before the next such
Report.
Planning is concerned with the unified social, economic and physical develop­
ment of communities and their environs and of States, regions, and the Nation.
The essential objective of such concern is the same as the basic objective of all
government and political action— guiding the patterns and forces of society for
the benefit of its people. Planning provides the means by which a unit of govern­
ment may fulfill its commitment to its people by anticipating and preparing for
future needs inherent in the process of growth and change. Thus the primary
objective of planning is achieved in improving the effectiveness of government.
Two years ago when our Institute appeared before this Committee in support
of the Urban Growth and New Community Development Act of 1970 we stressed
the urgent need for this country to begin developing a national growth policy.
There is still today that same urgent need for the Federal government to estab­
lish a framework for the development of a national urban growth policy in order
to provide the guidelines for a more national redistribution of our population
and for the selection of new urban growth centers throughout the United States.
Most importantly, such a national growth policy should consist of guidelines for
action on a national and regional basis which are flexible enough to meet the
goals of specific regions and localities and accommodate national needs at the
same time.
As a matter of principle the AIP believes that our national growth policy
should clearly define several points :
1. The Federal interest in urban areas must be defined.
2. Structuring the role of the Federal agencies and the state and local govern­
ments in planning and fostering urban growth must be continued and must be
strengthened.
3. We must organize methods of coordinating local policies among local, metro­
politan, regional, and state authorities.
4. We must assure that means of guaranteeing adherence of Federal programs
to such local planning is implemented.
5. We must design the appropriate division of fiscal responsibility between
levels of government to assure wise investment in urban areas.
The final bill passed by this Committee and the 91st Congress was consistent
with the objectives of the American Institute of Planners. It declared that “the
Federal Government . . . must assume responsibility for the development of a
national urban growth policy . .
As this Committee well knows, the past two years have been a time of dramatic
change in the institutions of government that are concerned with domestic is­
sues, and a national urban growth policy, which would never have been easy to
formulate or articulate in the best of circumstances, is even more needed today
than it ever was. And more than ever we need something more than just an in­
ventory of Federal, State and local agencies and a list of pious hopes. We need
both thoughtful leadership and effective forums for reconciling deep differences
of opinion.
AIP itself created a National Task Force to study this issue and involved a
score of government officials, planning consultants and academicians in its de­
liberations over the two year period. We were prepared to assist in the creation
of the first Urban Growth Report and to contribute to the discussion after it was
published. In fact, no one from outside the White House staff was involved in the
writing of the Report, and so we are contributing as best we can, after the fact,
by analyzing its contents, passing resolutions and testifying here today.
We had high hopes that the President’s First Report on National Growth would
also further our general body of knowledge in the urban field and at the same
time respond to the Congressional intent of the 1970 legislation to assist in the
development of new ideas and policies.
It is the opinion of the Board of Governors of the Institute that the President’s
report does not achieve either goal. Subsequent to the unceremonious release
of the President’s Report in March, our Institute thoroughly reviewed and com­
mented on the Report. Based on a critique of our Task Force on National De­
velopment Policy the AIP Board of Governors adopted a position statement at

4 5 O - 72 - pt. 1 - - 2 5
81-7


382
its April 1972 board meeting that was critical of the President’s First Report and
at the same time reaffirmed the role of planning in coordinating future devel­
opment patterns in the United States. Both our position statement and the cri­
tique are appended to the end of our testimony and are being submitted for the
record.
Without going into the details of our position paper, we noted that it avoided
the hard questions and rehashed familiar statistics.
Let me be specific about what we felt the deficiencies are: This will be short,
because we want to speak on what should happen from now on.
1. It fails to show leadership by the Executive Branch in defining a compre­
hensive policy; indeed, the Report says no such policy is appropriate, and the
Domestic Council even goes so far as to reject the call for an urban growth policy
report in favor of a report on national growth, a significantly different matter
which is itself hardly treated in the Report.
2. It fails to examine the implications of the giving of Federal categorical
programs in favor of state-local priorities and procedures.
3. It fails to explain how affirmative Federal policies in housing, transporta­
tion, environmental improvement, and land-use control will be made to work.
4. It fails to state what resources will be made available and whether such
resources will be adequate for the stated purposes.
5. It fails to establish mechanisms by which many different groups of people
will be involved in the process by which decisions concerning their urban en­
vironment will be made in the future.
I want to add to this last point before considering the future. It is important
here to say something about how citizens and community groups should be in­
volved in the planning process and it is important to differentiate between the
planning process and planners.
TH E NEED FOR LEADERSHIP

The lesson of the post-war era in governmental programs in the urban field
is the lesson that private enterprise learned long ago, that the consumer is
sovereign; the citizen-voter is the key to effective planning and policy-making,
and even the best-laid projects will come to nought if the citizen-voter has not
been sold on them. And citizens have a way of voting with their feet as well
as in the ballot box. People have been leaving the rural non-urban areas for the
last few generations ; there has to be more than a goal and a policy to bring them
back, if that is what we want; it will have to be clear to them that there is
a life worth living out there. Similarly, people have been leaving the central
cities for the suburbs since the turn of the century, and this trend, more than
anything else, is the most important political fact of the 1970’s, especially as
the one man one vote rule changes the composition of state legislatures.
The first point is that any governmental program, at either the local, State
or Federal level, must be well thought out, well financed, and well administered
T
to have any chance at all of being implemented. Any such program in housing,
transportation, health services, education, and environmental improvement must
offer something significant to the citizens, if it expects to change the system
by which people locate their businesses, homes, and places for recreation.
Thus the second point is that governmental programs must be sold to the citizen
voters, and this means that, from the very beginning, people must be involved
in the program. This is particularly true if we are trying to change a complex
system that breaks down because ordinary citizens continue to do the ordinary
activities of life, buying and selling property, going to work by car, and avoid­
T
ing troubles, taxes and costs if they can.
A single automobile is a great asset; too many automobiles create chaos;
citizens must be sold on the need for some controls and some alternatives to
the unrestricted use of the private automobile. Similarly, a single family house
on a half-acre is a fine thing; but too many single-family houses create urban
sprawl, leave too many people unhoused, and may be an inefficient use of our
resources of money and land.
There is no point in having a housing policy that creates housing projects
in which people do not choose to live, or which are too expensive for the work­
ing man to use, or which are not allowed to be built in the areas of greatest need.
There is no point in having a Model Cities program if there is no money to
make the cities livable again. There is no point in having a mass transportation
program if we cannot convince people to use the new facilities.




383
So the process by which change and improvements will come to the urban
scene is all important. The process is far more important than the plans them­
selves. The citizens must be heard, and it will take great political leadership
to make them lis-ten and participate. Planners are people who want to help this
process. A planner is not interested in making a plan to be imposed on the
system. He is someone equipped to help the process of intelligent democratic
decision-making. Yes, we need more rationality and comprehensiveness in the
planning process, and yes, we need to improve the capacity of State and local
government in the area of “planning and management”, and yes, in the United
States of the 19 <
Os, we need to rely upon the democratic process to get an urban
growth policy which is comprehensive and implementable. In fact in order -to
get useful urban growth strategies and policies, we need to improve both the
legislative and executive branches of all levels of government. This general point
of view is stated more precisely in the policy statement adopted this past April
by our Board.
CRITERIA FOR TH E NEXT REPORT

As to the future, we believe it begins today in creating better mechanisms for
generating and evaluating urban growth policies. We urge both the Congress
and the Administration to put more of their resources into the process im­
mediately, so that the next Report, due in less than two years, will reflect greater
achievement than the President’s Report on National Growth, 1972.
In the critique of that Report which is appended to this statement, we have
spelled out in some detail some of the hard questions which we believe should be
addressed in future reports. Let me summarize our thinking briefly:
1. The Report should show the relationship between the Nation’s fiscal poli­
cies— including current thinking on revenue sharing, tax credits, and guaranteed
income— to national urban growth strategies.
2. The Report should examine the costs and benefits of major approaches,
showing, for example, how the net benefits of a dollar spent in rural areas com­
pares to a dollar spent in urban areas, or how a dollar for housing compares to
a dollar for transportation.
3. The Report should discuss the relationship between the local public economy
and the monetary system, particularly in reference to the impact of inflation and
recession on local efforts.
4. The Report should discuss the allocation of the Nation’s economic re­
sources, not only between the public and private sectors, but among the various
functional categories, such as community development, education, social welfare,
and environmental quality.
5. Lastly, the Report is incomplete if it omits a forthright evaluation of prog­
ress within the Executive Branch toward inter-agency cooperation, toward im­
proved procedures for planning, programming, and budgeting, and toward greater
cohesion between the Executive Departments and the independent regulatory
agencies.
A most important section of the Report should be devoted to an evaluation of
the manner in which the partnership between the States and the Federal gov­
ernment is developing in the new era of national urban growth policy-making.
In the words of our critique :
“Given the nature of the partnership between the Federal government and
the states, who bear the constitutional responsibility for establishing local gov­
ernments, a national urban growth policy requires that certain Federal funds
be disbursed by the States. A wise man will inquire about the stewardship of
his partners, and it is incumbent upon the Federal government to evaluate each
state’s progress in supporting the objectives of national policy. The next National
Urban Growth Report, therefore, should contain an evaluation, State by state, of
the extent to which funds have been made available to local communities, the
extent of reorganization of state fiscal and administrative systems, and the
extent to which state and local agencies are planning together for the ameliora­
tion of social-economic and physical problems in both metropolitan and rural
areas. An important part of the evaluation should be a consideration of the
relative merit of categorical and revenue-sharing programs.
OPPORTUNITY FOR TH E

CONGRESS

We also believe that Congress can play an important role in evaluating the
effectiveness of the process by which national urban goals are being pursued. In
effect, it is— in fact it has alwr
ays been— Congress’ function to evaluate the sue-




384
cess and failure of the legislation it has passed— and the consequences of not
passing legislation. This function it performs in a number of different ways:
holding hearings, commissioning reports by knowledgeable individuals, asking
questions of the Legislative Reference Service of the Library of Congress, and
providing funds and leadership for such exemplary organizations as the U.S.
Advisory Commission on Intergovernmental Relations.
We submit that the flood of urban legislation and the prospect of wholesale
changes in organization of the Executive Branch and the form of financial assist­
ance by the Federal government to the State-local sector requires a considerably
higher level of Congressional stewardship than even before.
We should like to see a continuing Joint Committee established and funded to
represent part of Congress’ interest in the subject. It’s role would be to analyze
national goals and growth policies of various legislative proposals. A Congres­
sional Oliice of Policy and Planning would support the Joint Committee and
provide it with information and data.
Of even more importance is to make sure that the Congress has available to
it the kind of information that would be most useful for its deliberations, and
that kind of information is qualitative rather than quantitative. And qualitative
information is, admittedly, the hardest kind of all to get.
The most critical form of qualitative information, in our opinion, will be con­
cerned with the readiness of state and local government to function effectively
under a system of revenue sharing combined with a new emphasis on metro­
politan areas as the relevant territory in place of the jurisdictional boundaries of
separate cities or counties.
In our opinion, the only way a State can be ready to move effectively in its
own behalf in performing its Constitutional function of establishing necessary
forms and procedures for local government is to have an effective planning proc­
ess as part of its legislative and executive structure. It is clear to us that the
criteria for such a process are more stringent and less compartmentalized than
they needed to be in former years.
It is also clear to us that few states have established effective relationships
between state-regional-metropolitan-county-city-and-town agencies within their
state.
Without such a planning process for and within the state, it is hard to be­
lieve that the state can be an adequate partner to the Federal government as it
seeks to articulate and administer national strategies, nor can it even be an
adequate partner to its neighboring states. Thus, without such a planning proc­
ess, the A-95 review process and the other elements of planning suggested by
the Intergovernmental Cooperation Act of 1968 may well be a mockery of Federal
legislative and executive intentions.
This concept of each State’s readiness to handle present and future problems is
a touchy subject. The Federal government cannot tell its state and local partners
what to do, but it is certainly entitled to make a judgment about how well they
are doing it, and Congress, in addition, is able to use a carrot where it cannot
use a stick. Just as there might well turn out to be a bonus under the revenue
sharing acts for those states with a certain form of fiscal system, where there is
a state income tax, for instance, so there might also be a bonus in the distri­
bution of categorical or functional bloc grants for those states judged by Fed­
eral government to have an effective planning and management structure in
being.
It is this kind of qualitative information that we believe the Congress must
have available to it as it evaluates present and future Urban Growth Reports.
Perhaps it can get the information it requires from Federal Departments. But
even when considering the Executive Branch we feel that it lacks the means to
effectively consider the goals and implications of its various department, bureau
and agency programs and multiple administrative rules and regulations. There
needs to be established a central planning and development coordination mech­
anism in the Executive Office of the President. AIP has since 1969 called for the
establishment of such an agency as an arm of Presidential authority which
would identify national goals and priorities, coordinate all Federal programs
affecting social, economic and physical development, determine realistic costs
and seek the appropriations necessary to initiate comprehensive planning and
development programs for the satisfaction of domestic needs.
It would appear that two bills in various stages of introduction in the Senate,
both the Hartke bill on National Growth Policy Planning and the Humphrey bill
on Balanced National Growth and Developmnt would begin to make some sense




385
out of the duplicative, confusing and most often, absent system of planning, policy
analysis and goal evaluation needed to truly begin to develop a national growth
and development policy for this Nation. Even though we haven’t examined these
bills we are committed to working with both Houses of Congress to develop the
proper mechanism to achieve these ends.
Whatever the means chosen, we dc believe that Congress and the Executive
Branch need to have better information about the effectiveness of the state-local
planning process upon which so much of the national urban growth strategy is
based, and we also believe that Congress should make sure that adequate re­
sources are available at all levels of government for such effective planningmanagement processes.
We thank you for the opportunity to present our views and would be willing to
provide the Committee with any additional information. Thank you.

AIP
n in g

C r it ic iz e s N ix o n R eport o n U r b a n G r o w t h a n d R e a f f ir m s R o le of P l a n ­
in C o o r d in a t in g F u t u r e D e v e l o p m e n t P a t t e r n s i n t h e U n it e d S t a t e s

(The AIP Board of Governors adopted the following position statement in re­
sponse to President Nixon’s Report on Urban Growth 1972, the first report on
urban growth as required under the Housing and Urban Development Act of
1970. The Report was unceremoniously released in March. The Board-adopted
response published here was prepared by the AIP Task Force on National Devel­
opment Policy. Task Force members are: Chairman Irving Hand, Alan Rabinowitz, Louis Wetmore, Jonathan Howes, Charles Kirchner, Francis Moravitz and
Richard Broun. Corresponding members who participated in this endeavor were
George Raymond and Phil Tallon. 1973 Government Relations Conference Chair­
man Robert Einsweiler also participated.)
The Board of Governors of the American Institute of Planners endorses the
concept mandated by Congress of accountability by the Executive Branch for the
continuing formulation and implementation of urban growth policies. Reports
issued by the Executive Branch must show evidence of positive leadership in the
defining of unified comprehensive policy.
Unfortunately, the President’s first official response to the Congressional man­
date, his Report on National Growth 1972, rejects a concern with the urban
dimension in favor of excessive concern for rural growth; rejects a philosophy
of planning in favor of an executive approach; and, in the opinion of this Board,
fails to be responsive to the Congressional mandate.
Report on National Growth 1972 is no more than a survey of problems and a
commitment to two obvious goals of growth policy: first, to the idea of “balance”
between the nation’s urban and rural environments; and second, to the idea of
“orderly” correction of existing problems. The Report, however, fails to examine
the implications of the giving up of federal categorical programs in favor of statelocal priorities and procedures, fails to explain how affirmative federal policies
will be made to work, fails to state what resources will be made available and
whether such resources will be adequate for the stated purposes, also fails to
establish mechanisms by which the citizens of the United States can become in­
volved in the process.
The Report shows the Administration’s confusing approach to the process
within the Executive Branch. As one example, it seems to us that land use con­
trols under recent and proposed federal legislation should be included in the
group of activities recommended for the proposed Department of Community
Development rather than put under a Department of Natural Resources. More­
over, we are concerned that the resources for any federal program be matched
with the locus of authority, as is manifestly not the case with the maintenance of
the Highway Trust Fund beyond the reach of the proposed Department of
Community Development.
The Report contains a number of contradictory assertions and assumptions
about the federal role vis-a-vis the states and the private sector, an example be­
ing the Administration’s abandonment of responsibility by advocating revenue
sharing without sanctions, combined with its willingness to abandon existing
programs addressing themselves to city and urban problems in favor of a vague
hope that the states will turn to planning at the metropolitan level. We believe
the federal government has a responsibility to implement its policies in a direct
rather than an indirect fashion in accordance with the recommendations below.




386
Lastly, we view with great concern the Report's summary of Administration
attitudes concerning the process of planning in a democratic society. We criticize
especially its claim that not “even a single coordinated set of policies can remedy
or even significantly ameliorate all of our ills” and its drastic misuse of the
term “planning” as an activity only to be supported within the office of an elected
official, as part of the administrative and budgetary process. We do believe that
a set of coordinated policies is both feasible and necessary and can be produced
with due regard for the democratic process.
In the light of the foregoing, and taking into account the considerations pre­
sented in the critique of the President’s Report (also published here) the Board
of Governors of the American Institute of Planners :
1. Urges that National Growth Policy (or National Urban Growth Policy as
mandated by Congress) address, purposefully and in a coordinated manner, the
following basic and interrelated issues: (a) settlement patterns, including the
quality and efficiency of settlement; (b) human opportunity and welfare; (c)
capacity and fiscal vitality of government; (d) quality of environment and man­
agement of natural resources.
2. Affirms that equity in the formulation and application of National Growth
Policy requires the participation of all segments of society in that effort and the
allocation of adequate resources consistent with policy direction and priorities,
both of which are necessary to assure access in the definition of policy and effec­
tive utilization of resources in the disposition of the issues involved.
3. Reaffirms that planning can and should make an essential contribution to
defining appropriate roles for all levels of government and private institutions in
the formulation and implementation of unified policies that will reflect and re­
spond to the considerations enumerated above with full respect for diversity and
pluralism.
The Board of Governors further recognizes and deplores a condition when no
policy becomes the policy and fosters the fragmented deliberations now proceed­
ing, prolonging the long history of unrelated or conflicting programs, projects and
actions which have led to the present national condition. Congress has mandated a
National Growth Policy to deal with this condition. The expression of the recom­
mendations herewith adopted are vital to the successful fulfillment of that
mandate.
A C ritique of t h e R eport
(Following is a detailed critique of the Report on Urban Growth 1972 prepared
for the Task Force by its member Alan Rabinowitz and submitted to the AIP
Board as a support document to the above policy statement. This critique at­
tempts to provide the AIP membership with an evaluation of how the simplistic
statements in the Report fit into the context of urban growth policy as it might
and should be defined. This critique is not adopted Board policy, and additional
comments on the report are welcome.)
nature

of

the

p r e s id e n t ’ s

r eport

For many years, thoughtful analysts of the nation’s urban programs have been
documenting the extent to which various federal activities either complement or
vitiated the efforts of other parts of the federal establishment and of public and
private agencies involved in planning and implementation at the local level. In
recent years, the demand for cohesion in policy-making at the federal level has
increased, and both the executive and legislative branches have broadened the
scope of their efforts to obtain comprehensive, balanced, policies concerning hous­
ing, land use, transportation, economic development, pollution control and other
components of urban and rural life. Much of the intellectual leadership for this
movement has come from the U.S. Advisory Commission for Intergovernmental
Relations and related committees in the Congress.
In the Urban Growth and New Community Act of 1970, Congress declared it
in the national interest to :
* * * provide for the development of a national urban growth policy and to
encourage the rational, orderly, efficient, and economic growth, development, and
redevelopment of our States, metropolitan areas, cities, counties, towns and com­
munities in predominantly rural areas which demonstrate a special potential for
accelerated growth; to encourage the prudent use or conservation of our natural
resources; to encourage and support development which will assure our com­
munities of adequate tax bases, community services, job opportunities of adequate




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tax bases, community services, job opportunities, and well-balanced neighbor­
hoods in socially, economically, and physically attractive environments.
The President was instructed to use the powers of his office to collect, analyze,
and evaluate information about urban problems and programs and make a bien­
nial report, with recommendations, to the Congress, with the first such report due
in February 1972.
THE

AD M INISTR ATIO N ’ S

RESPONSE

Accordingly, The Domestic Council produced for the President for transmission
to Congress the Report on National Growth 1912, a 74-page pamphlet that is an
explicit and systematic avoidance of the Congressional mandate for evaluation of
new and existing policies.
The introduction indicates the key sentiments that control the Nixon Adminis­
tration’s thinking. Congress’ mandate for a report on national urban growth
policy is rejected as “too narrow,” and the focus is shifted away from “the urban
crisis” to the need for restoring balance between the nation’s rural and urban
populations, primarily in the context of the Department of Housing and Urban
Development. In addition, after finding that “the long-standing issues concern­
ing the growth of our nation are much too complex to be resolved in any dogmatic
fashion,” the President defines his responsibility to “assist in the development
of” rather than “enunciate” a master plan or a single comprehensive national
growth policy and declares that “No single policy, nor even a single coordinated
set of policies, can remedy or even significantly ameliorate all of our ills. As
our problems are many and varied and changing, so our solutions must be
multiple and diversified and flexible.”
The structure of the Report itself then follows the chapter headings provided
by Congress. In the next section, these chapters are analyzed in that same order.
A CRITIQUE OF TH E SUBSTANTIVE IDEAS

Chapter 1— Population Growth and Distribution
To “understand the forces that are shaping the communities in which we
live and work,” the Report devotes its first chapter to a standard description of
population trends from 1790 to 1970. The text covers demographic trends, immi­
gration, the westward movement, the migration of blacks from the South, the
impact of technology on agriculture and the migration from rural to urban
areas, the growth of metropolitan areas, and the changing racial and economic
composition of central city and suburban populations.
No attempt is made to analyze the impact of such forces as the relation be­
tween higher personal incomes and changing family characteristics, the impact
of the automobile and other technologies on the location of industry and hous­
ing, the role of the Federal Housing Administration in suburbanization, or the
nature of other national policies that might have shaped these population trends.
The Domestic Council, however, does conclude that “for some time our urban
areas have been spreading out faster than population growth alone would
justify.”
Chapter 2— The Challenge of Balanced and Orderly Growth
To “articulate some of the challenges that must be confronted as the Nation
responds to the challenges of growth,” the Report notes that growth has been
characterized by rapid economic expansion and greater mobility for automobile
owners but has been accompanied by some problems. The Administration looks
for policies to insure that future growth is both “orderly,” meaning correction
of existing problems, and “balanced” between rural and urban growth.
The problems seen associated with past growth include the depopulation of
rural areas and small towns, the hard times befalling central cities, the concen­
tration of the poor and the black in the inner city, environmental damage and
traffic congestion, and the rising cost of land in housing.
The challenge specified in the Report is limited to a federal responsibility to
assure balanced and orderly growth, and the reader is left to supply his own
reasons therefor, for the Report does not discuss the Administration’s objectives
in terms of welfare economics, economic efficiency, the distribution of wealth,
or social equity.
The Domestic Council does, however, advance some further ideas concerning
the obstacles in formulating a single comprehensive strategy to deal with the
forces of growth, citing an unpublished study about the difficulty of getting




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agreement about the causes, externalities, and interdependence of problems. Two
aspects of our national culture are basic in their thinking: first, a high value set
upon freedom in the private sector and democratic choice in the public; and,
second, an appreciation of the sharing of powers with the states in the governing
of a country of vast size and diversity. The Domestic Council does not feel it is
feasible for the highest level of government to design policies for development
that can operate successfully in all parts of the nation. It does believe, however,
that a useful distinction can be made between national responsibility for such
items as fiscal and monetary policy and the solution of water and pollution prob­
lems and local responsibility for such problems as street lighting.
Chapter 3— Recent State and Local Actions To Influence Growth
To “identify major actions of the federal government undertaken to deal with
the problems of growth,” the Report describes in considerable detail a familiar
list of state-level activities: establishing the nature and financing of local govern­
ments, creating departments of urban affairs, housing finance agencies and urban
development corporations, beginning to be concerned with environmental and land
use controls, encouraging new communities and other housing programs, creating
planning and development districts, and reviewing the organization and financing
of local governments, transportation agencies, and education departments.
The federal role envisaged by the Domestic Council is described in a number of
ways. The assertion is made that “the nature of growth in America in the years
ahead will depend primarily upon the scope and nature of actions taken by state
and local governments and upon the countless decisions made by tens of thousands
of individuals and business enterprises, large and small” ; and rarely is it sug­
gested that a national growth policy should tell the states what to do. The use of
federal grants as both carrots and sticks is barely mentioned, ex