National Income

Name: National Income
Creator: FRASER
Keywords: Economic Data, Economic indicators, Economic conditions, United States

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The following is plain-text output generated by Optical Character Recognition. 108th Congress 1st Session Economic Indicators APRIL 2003 Includes data available as of May Prepared for the Joint Economic Committee by the Council of Economic Advisers UNITED STATES GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE WASHINGTON JOINT ECONOMIC COMMITTEE Created pursuant to Sec 5 a of Public Law 304 79th Cong ROBERT F BENNETT Utah Chairman JIM SAXTON New Jersey Vice Chairman SENATE SAM BROWNBACK Kansas JEFF SESSIONS Alabama JOHN SUNUNU New Hampshire LAMAR ALEXANDER Tennessee SUSAN M COLLINS Maine JACK REED Rhode Island EDWARD M KENNEDY Massachusetts PAUL S SARBANES Maryland JEFF BINGAMAN New Mexico HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES PAUL RYAN Wisconsin JENNIFER DUNN Washington PHIL ENGLISH Pennsylvania ADAM H PUTNAM Florida RON PAUL Texas PETE STARK California CAROLYN B MALONEY New York MELVIN L WATT North Carolina BARON P HILL Indiana DONALD B MARRON Executive Director COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS N GREGORY MANKIW Chairman Designate RANDALL S KROSZNER Member PUBLIC LAW 120 81ST CONGRESS CHAPTER 237 1ST SESSION JOINT RESOLUTION S J Res 55 To print the monthly publication entitled Economic Indicators Resolved by the Senate and House of Representatives of the United States of America in Congress assembled That the Joint Economic Committee be authorized to issue a monthly publication entitled Economic Indicators and that a sufficient quantity be printed to furnish one copy to each Member of Congress the Secretary and the Sergeant at Arms of the Senate the Clerk Sergeant at Arms and Doorkeeper of the House of Representatives two copies to the libraries of the Senate and House and the Congressional Library seven hundred copies to the Joint Economic Committee and the required numbers of copies to the Superintendent of Documents for distribution to depository libraries and that the Superintendent of Documents be authorized to have copies printed for sale to the public Approved June Charts prepared by the Art Production Section Design and Graphics Branch Office of the Secretary Department of Commerce Economic Indicators published monthly is available at 3 00 a single copy 3 75 foreign or by subscription at 33 00 per year 41 25 for foreign mailing from SUPERINTENDENT OF DOCUMENTS GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE WASHINGTON D C 20402 For sale by the U S Government Printing Office Superintendent of Documents Mail Stop SSOP Washington DC ii TOTAL OUTPUT INCOME AND SPENDING GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT In the first quarter of 2003 according to advance estimates current dollar gross domestic product GDP rose 4 2 percent annual rate real GDP GDP in chained 1996 dollars rose 1 6 percent and the implicit price deflator rose 2 5 percent Billions of current dollars quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates Period III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV Ip GDP Exports and imports of goods and services Personal Gross Gross conprivate domestic sumption domestic product expendi investtures ment Net exports Exports Government consumption expenditures and gross investment Federal Imports Total Total less exports of goods and services plus imports of goods and services National defense Nondefense State and local Final sales of domestic product Gross domestic purchases 1 Addendum Gross national product Source Department of Commerce Bureau of Economic Analysis 1 REAL GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT Billions of chained 1996 dollars quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates Period III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I p Gross domestic product Personal consumption expenditures Gross private domestic investment Exports and imports of goods and services Nonresidential fixed investment Residential fixed investment Change in private inventories Net exports Exports Government consumption expenditures and gross investment Federal Imports Total Total GDP less exports of goods and services plus imports of goods and services NOTE Because of the formula used for calculating real GDP the chained 1996 dollar estimates for the detailed components do not add to the chained dollar value of GDP or to any intermediate aggregates National defense Nondefense State and local Final sales of domestic product Gross domestic purchases 1 Addendum Gross national product Source Department of Commerce Bureau of Economic Analysis IMPLICIT PRICE DEFLATORS FOR GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT Index numbers quarterly data are seasonally adjusted Personal consumption expenditures Period III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I p Gross domestic product Total Durable goods Nondurable goods Services Source Department of Commerce Bureau of Economic Analysis 2 Gross private domestic investment Exports and imports of goods and services Government consumption expenditures and gross investment Federal Nonresidential fixed Residential fixed Exports Imports Total National defense Nondefense State and local GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT AND RELATED PRICE MEASURES INDEXES AND PERCENT CHANGES Quarterly data are seasonally adjusted Percent change from preceding period 1 Index numbers Period I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I p Percent Real GDP chain type quantity index GDP current dollars GDP chain type price index changes based on unrounded data Quarterly percent changes are at annual rates GDP implicit price deflator GDP current dollars Real GDP chain type quantity index GDP chain type price index GDP implicit price deflator Source Department of Commerce Bureau of Economic Analysis NONFINANCIAL CORPORATE BUSINESS OUTPUT PRICE COSTS AND PROFITS Quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates Gross product of nonfinancial corporate business billions of dollars Period Current dollars III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV The Chained 1996 dollars Price costs and profits per unit of real output dollars Price per unit of real gross product of nonfinancial corporate business 1 Compensation of employees unit labor cost deflator for gross product of nonfinancial corporate business divided by 100 business tax and nontax liability plus business transfer payments less subsidies profits from current production 4 With inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments Corporate profits with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments 3 Unit nonlabor cost Total Consumption of fixed capital Indirect business tax etc 2 Net interest Total Profits tax liability Profits after tax Source Department of Commerce Bureau of Economic Analysis 2 Indirect 3 Unit 3 NATIONAL INCOME Billions of dollars quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates National income Period I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I p Includes Compensation of employees Proprietors income with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments Farm Nonfarm Corporate profits with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments Rental income of persons with capital consumption adjustment employer contributions for social insurance See also p 5 Profits with inventory valuation adjustment and without capital consumption adjustment Total Total Profits before tax Inventory valuation adjustment Capital consumption adjustment Net interest Source Department of Commerce Bureau of Economic Analysis REAL PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES Billions of chained 1996 dollars except as noted quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates Durable goods Period I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I p Total personal consumption expenditures Total durable goods Motor vehicles and parts Furniture and household equipment Nondurable goods Other Total nondurable goods Food Includes other items not shown separately NOTE Because of the formula used for calculating real GDP the chained 1996 dollar estimates for the detailed components do not add to the chained dollar value of GDP or to any intermediate aggregates 4 Clothing and shoes Gasoline and oil Services Fuel oil and coal Other Total services Housing Source Department of Commerce Bureau of Economic Analysis Medical care Retail sales of new passenger cars and light trucks millions of units SOURCES OF PERSONAL INCOME Personal income rose 35 5 billion annual rate in March following an increase of 19 5 billion in February Wages and salaries rose 25 0 billion in March following an increase of 14 8 billion in February Billions of dollars monthly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates Period Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan r Feb r Mar p Total personal income Wage and salary disbursements Proprietors income 3 Other labor income The total of wage and salary disbursements and other labor income differs from compensation of employees see p 4 in that it excludes employer contributions for social insurance and the excess of wage accruals over wage disbursements 2 Consists primarily of employer contributions to private pension and private welfare funds Farm Nonfarm Rental income of persons Personal dividend income Personal interest income Transfer payments 5 Less Personal contributions for social insurance With inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments capital consumption adjustment mainly of social insurance benefits direct relief and veterans payments Source Department of Commerce Bureau of Economic Analysis 4 With 5 Consists 5 DISPOSITION OF PERSONAL INCOME According to advance estimates per capita disposable personal income in chained 1996 dollars rose at an annual rate of 0 3 percent in the first quarter of 2003 Period Personal income Less Personal tax and nontax payments Equals Disposable personal income Less Personal outlays 1 Equals Personal saving Disposable personal income in billions of chained 1996 dollars Per capita disposable personal income Current dollars Billions of dollars Chained 1996 dollars Per capita personal consumption expenditures Current dollars Chained 1996 dollars Dollars Percent change in real per capita disposable personal income Saving as percent of disposable personal income Population including Armed Forces overseas thousands 2 Percent Seasonally adjusted annual rates 2000 I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I p Includes personal consumption expenditures interest paid by persons and personal transfer payments to rest of the world net Annual data are averages of quarterly data which are averages for the period Source Department of Commerce Bureau of Economic Analysis and Bureau of the Census FARM INCOME In the fourth quarter of 2002 according to preliminary estimates gross farm income rose 33 0 billion annual rate and net farm income rose 33 9 billion Billions of dollars quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates Income of farm operators from farming Gross farm income Period Cash marketing receipts Total 1 Total p I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV p Livestock and products Cash marketing receipts Government payments value of changes in inventories other farm related cash income and nonmoney income produced by farms including imputed rent of operator residences 2 Crop receipts include proceeds received from commodities placed under Commodity Credit Corporation loans 3 Physical changes in beginning and ending year inventories of crop and livestock commodities valued at weighted average market prices during the period Crops Value of inventory changes Direct Government payments Production expenses Net farm income Includes only Government payments made directly to farmers NOTE Quarterly data plotted for 1992 and 1993 in chart do not reflect revisions to annual data in table Source Department of Agriculture 7 CORPORATE PROFITS In the fourth quarter of 2002 according to current estimates corporate profits before tax rose 26 4 billion annual rate and profits after tax rose 18 7 billion Billions of dollars quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates Profits before tax with inventory valuation adjustment 1 Profits after tax Domestic industries Period Profits before tax Nonfinancial Total 2 Total Financial Total 3 Manufacturing Transportation4 Wholesale Tax liability Total Dividends Undistributed profits Inventory valuation adjustment Retail III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I p See p 4 for profits with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments rest of the world not shown separately 3 Includes industries not shown separately 2 Includes 8 4 Transportation and public utilities Source Department of Commerce Bureau of Economic Analysis REAL GROSS PRIVATE DOMESTIC INVESTMENT In the first quarter of 2003 according to advance estimates nonresidential fixed investment in chained 1996 dollars fell 12 6 billion annual rate and residential investment rose 11 4 billion There was an increase of 12 8 billion in inventories following an increase of 25 8 billion in the fourth quarter of 2002 Billions of chained 1996 dollars quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates Fixed investment Period Gross private domestic investment Change in private inventories Nonresidential Total Total Equipment and software Residential Structures Total Nonfarm III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I p NOTE See p 10 for further detail on fixed investment by type Because of the formula used for calculating real GDP the chained 1996 dollar estimates for the detailed components do not add to the chained dollar value of GDP or to any inter mediate aggregates Source Department of Commerce Bureau of Economic Analysis 9 REAL PRIVATE FIXED INVESTMENT BY TYPE Billions of chained 1996 dollars quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates Nonresidential Residential Structures Period III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I p Total nonresidential Total Structures Equipment and software Information processing equipment and software Nonresidential buildings including farm Utilities Mining exploration shafts and wells Total Total 1 Includes other structures not shown separately other items not shown separately equipment not shown separately 4 Includes multifamily and other structures not shown separately Computers and peripheral equipment Software Other Industrial equipment Transportation equipment Total residential Total 4 Single family NOTE Because of the formula used for calculating real GDP the chained 1996 dollar estimates for the detailed components do not add to the chained dollar value of GDP or to any intermediate aggregates Source Department of Commerce Bureau of Economic Analysis 2 Includes 3 Includes BUSINESS INVESTMENT Billions of dollars Capital expenditures By industry Period Total capital expenditures Total by industry Forestry fishing Con Manuand Min Utili strucfacagriing ties turtion culing tural services ProFor Real fesscomTransesional Health panies portaFiWhole Retail tion Infor nance tate scien care Other withand tific and out sale and maand 1 and emtrade trade waretion insur rental tech social and assisployhousance leas nical tance ees ing ing services For companies with employees Includes the following industries Management of companies and enterprises administrative and support and waste management educational services arts entertainment and recreation accommodation and food services and other services except public administration Also includes an item for structure and equipment expenditures serving multiple industry categories 10 NOTE Data from Annual Capital Expenditures Industry data are based on the North American Industry Classification System NAICS 1997 Source Department of Commerce Bureau of the Census EMPLOYMENT UNEMPLOYMENT AND WAGES In April employment rose by 339 000 and unemployment rose by Thousands of persons 16 years of age and over except as noted monthly data seasonally adjusted except as noted by NSA Civilian employment Period Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr Civilian noninstitutional population NSA Civilian labor force Percent 1 Unemployment Total Men 20 years and over Women 20 years and over Both sexes 16 19 years Civilian labor force or employment as percent of civilian noninstitutional population and unemployment as percent of civilian labor force 2 Data beginning January 1994 are not directly comparable with data for earlier periods because of a major redesign of the household survey questionnaire 3 Not strictly comparable with earlier data Total Men 20 years and over Women 20 years and over Both sexes 16 19 years Not in labor force Labor force participation rate Employment population ratio Unemployment rate Data beginning 2000 reflect new population controls based on Census 2000 an additional population adjustment in January 2003 and other changes Data for February 2003 are not directly comparable with earlier data due to a weighting difference For details see The Employment Situation January 2003 and February 2003 Source Department of Labor Bureau of Labor Statistics NOTE See Employment and Earnings for details on breaks in series 11 SELECTED UNEMPLOYMENT RATES In April the unemployment rate rose to 6 0 percent from 5 8 percent in March Monthly data seasonally adjusted Unemployment rate percent of civilian labor force in group By race or ethnicity 1 By sex and age Period Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr All civilian workers Men 20 years and over Women 20 years and over Both sexes 16 19 years White Beginning in 2003 persons who selected this race group only Prior to 2003 persons who reported more than one race were included in the group they identified as the main race Persons whose ethnicity is identified as Hispanic or Latino may be of any race 2 Data beginning January 1994 are not directly comparable with data for earlier periods 12 By selected groups Black or African American Asian NSA Hispanic or Latino ethnicity Married men spouse present Women who maintain families NSA Full time workers Part time workers NOTE Data relate to persons age 16 years and over See Note p 11 Source Department of Labor Bureau of Labor Statistics SELECTED MEASURES OF UNEMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT INSURANCE PROGRAMS In April the percentage of the unemployed who had been out of work for less than 5 weeks fell the percentages for 5 14 weeks for 15 26 weeks and for 27 weeks and over rose The mean duration of unemployment rose to 19 6 weeks and the median duration rose to 10 2 weeks Monthly data seasonally adjusted except as noted Duration of unemployment Period Unemployment thousands Percent distribution Less than 5 weeks 5 14 weeks weeks Reason for unemployment percent distribution State programs Number of weeks 27 weeks and over Average mean Median Job losers 1 Job leavers Reentrants New entrants Insured unemployment Initial claims Insured unemployment all regular programs unadjusted 2 Weekly average thousands Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr Beginning January 1994 job losers and persons who completed temporary jobs 2 Includes State 50 States District of Columbia Puerto Rico and Virgin Islands ex servicemen UCX and Federal UCFE Railroad RR programs included through 1993 Also includes Federal and State extended benefit programs Does not include Federal supplemental compensation or Emergency Unemployment Compensation programs 3 Data beginning January 1994 are not directly comparable with data for earlier periods r3 669 r3 705 r3 651 r3 515 r3 549 r3 608 r3 601 r3 486 r3 478 r3 361 r r430 r409 r392 r387 r397 r417 r411 r390 r409 r388 r 409 r 423 p NOTE Data relate to persons age 16 years and over except for insured unemployment and initial claims Seasonally adjusted insured and initial claims data revised historically to reflect annual revisions Source Department of Labor Bureau of Labor Statistics and Employment and Training Administration 13 NONAGRICULTURAL EMPLOYMENT Total nonagricultural employment as measured by the payroll survey fell by 48 000 in April Thousands of wage and salary workers 1 monthly data seasonally adjusted Goods producing industries Period Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb r Mar r Apr p Total nonagricultural employment Service producing industries Manufacturing Total Construction Total Durable goods Nondurable goods Includes all full and part time wage and salary workers in nonagricultural establishments who received pay for any part of the pay period which includes the 12th of the month Excludes proprietors self employed persons domestic servants and personnel of the Armed Forces Total in this table not comparable with estimates of nonagricultural employment of the civilian labor force shown on p 11 which include proprietors self employed persons and domestic servants which count persons as employed when they are not at work because of industrial disputes bad weather etc even if they are not paid for the time off and which are based on a sample 14 Total Transportation and public utilities Wholesale trade Retail trade Finance insurance Services and real estate Government Total Federal of the working age population whereas the estimates in this table are based on reports from employing establishments In the series shown here persons who work at more than one job are counted each time they appear on a payroll in contrast to the series shown on p 11 where persons are counted only once as employed unemployed or not in the labor force 2 Includes mining not shown separately Source Department of Labor Bureau of Labor Statistics AVERAGE WEEKLY HOURS HOURLY EARNINGS AND WEEKLY EARNINGS PRIVATE NONAGRICULTURAL INDUSTRIES For production or nonsupervisory workers monthly data seasonally adjusted Average weekly hours Average gross hourly earnings Manufacturing Period Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb r Mar r Apr p Total private nonagricultural Total Average gross weekly earnings Total private nonagricultural 1 Overtime Current dollars dollars Total private nonagricultural 1 Manufacturing Current dollars Also includes other private industry groups shown on p 14 2 Current dollar earnings divided by the consumer price index for urban wage earners and clerical workers CPI W on a base Percent change from a year earlier total private nonagricultural Current dollars 1982 dollars 2 Manufacturing Construction Retail trade Current dollars dollars Source Department of Labor Bureau of Labor Statistics EMPLOYMENT COST INDEX PRIVATE INDUSTRY Index June Percent change from 3 months earlier Period Total compensation Wages and salaries Benefits 1 Total compensation Wages and salaries 12 months earlier Benefits 1 Total compensation Wages and salaries Benefits 1 Not seasonally adjusted Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Mar r June r Sept r Dec r Mar r June r Sept r Dec r Mar r June r Sept r Dec r Mar Seasonally adjusted 1 Employer costs for employee benefits NOTE The employment cost index is a measure of the change in the cost of labor free from the influence of employment shifts among occupations and industries Not seasonally adjusted Data exclude farm and household workers Seasonally adjusted data revised beginning 1998 Source Department of Labor Bureau of Labor Statistics 15 PRODUCTIVITY AND RELATED DATA BUSINESS SECTOR Output per hour of all persons Period Business sector Nonfarm business sector Output 1 Business sector Nonfarm business sector Hours of all persons 2 Business sector Compensation per hour 3 Nonfarm business sector Business sector Nonfarm business sector Real compensation per hour 4 Business sector Nonfarm business sector Unit labor costs Implicit price deflator 5 Business sector Nonfarm business sector Business sector Nonfarm business sector Indexes quarterly data seasonally adjusted r I II III IV I II III IV I II III r IV r Ip r 110 6 r r r r r r Percent change quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates r I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III r IV r Ip Output refers to real gross domestic product originating in the sector 2 Hours of all persons engaged in the sector including hours of proprietors and unpaid family workers Estimates based primarily on establishment data 3 Wages and salaries of employees plus employers contributions for social insurance and private benefit plans Also includes an estimate of wages salaries and supplemental payments for the self employed 4 Hourly compensation divided by the consumer price index for all urban consumers CPI U for recent quarters The trend from is based on the consumer price index research series CPI U RS 5 Current dollar gross domestic output divided by the output index r 6 7 r 2 5 r 6 r 2 0 r 10 6 r 4 r4 5 r 8 6 r 2 7 r 0 r1 9 r 1 8 r r 5 7 r 2 4 r 6 r 2 7 r 11 0 r r 3 0 r 1 r NOTE Data relate to all persons engaged in the sector Percent changes are from preceding period and are based on original data they therefore may differ slightly from percent changes based on indexes shown here Data based on GDP data released April Source Department of Labor Bureau of Labor Statistics PRODUCTION AND BUSINESS ACTIVITY INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION AND CAPACITY UTILIZATION Industrial production and capacity utilization fell in March Monthly data seasonally adjusted Total industrial production 1 Percent Period Index From preceding month Industry production indexes change 2 From year earlier Capacity utilization rate output as percent of capacity 1 Manufacturing Total 1 Durable Nondurable Other nonNAICS 1 Mining Utilities Total industry Total manufacturing r Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec r Jan r Feb r Mar p Total industry and total manufacturing series include manufacturing as defined in the North American Industry Classification System NAICS plus those industries logging and newspaper periodical book and directory publishing that have traditionally been included in manufacturing 2 Percent changes based on unrounded indexes Note Data based on the North American Industry Classification System NAICS except series as defined in footnote 1 Source Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System 17 INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION MAJOR MARKET GROUPS AND SELECTED MANUFACTURES monthly data seasonally adjusted Products and nonindustrial supplies Final products Consumer goods Equipment Durable goods Business equipment Period Total Total Materials Nonindustrial supplies Nondurable goods Total 1 Defense and space equipment Total Construction supplies Business supplies Total 1 Energy Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec r Jan r Feb r Mar p Includes other items not shown separately monthly data seasonally adjusted Durable manufactures Primary metal Period Total Iron and steel products Nondurable manufactures Computer and electronic products Fabricated metal products Machinery Total Selected hightechnology 1 Transportation equipment Total Motor vehicles and parts Apparel Printing and support Chemical Food r r Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec r Jan r Feb r Mar p Computers and office equipment communications equipment and semiconductors and related electronic components 18 Source Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System NEW CONSTRUCTION Monthly data seasonally adjusted Construction contracts 3 Private Period Total new construction expenditures Residential Total New housing units Total 1 Commercial and industrial 2 Other Federal and State and local Total value index Commercial and industrial floor space millions of square feet Billions of dollars Annual rates 2002 Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan r Feb r Mar p Includes residential improvements not shown separately hotels and motels Dodge series Sources Department of Commerce Bureau of the Census and The McGraw Hill Companies Inc F W Dodge Division 2 Includes 3 F W NEW PRIVATE HOUSING AND VACANCY RATES Thousands of units or houses except as noted New private housing units Units started by type of structure Period Total New private houses unit units 1 5 units or more Units authorized Units completed Houses sold Houses for sale at end of period 2 Vacancy rate for rental housing units percent r Seasonally adjusted annual rates 2002 Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec r r r r r Jan r Feb r Mar p Derived seasonally adjusted monthly data for 2 4 housing units started are no longer published 2 Seasonally adjusted 3 Revised series beginning 1994 data for 1993 reflect the revision Quarterly data entered in last month of quarter NOTE Beginning 1994 units authorized are for 19 000 places For other data shown units authorized are for 17 000 places Beginning 1999 housing starts completions and sales are not directly comparable with earlier data due to new estimation methods Source Department of Commerce Bureau of the Census 19 BUSINESS SALES AND INVENTORIES Manufacturing and Trade In February manufacturing and trade sales fell 0 9 percent and inventories rose 7 1 billion In March according to preliminary data manufacturing and trade sales rose 1 8 percent According to current estimates retail sales rose 2 2 percent in March Retail and food services sales rose 2 1 percent Series revised Millions of dollars except ratios seasonally adjusted except as noted Manufacturing and trade 1 Period 1993 r 1994 r 1995 r 1996 r 1997 r 1998 r 1999 r 2000 r 2001 r 2002 r Feb r Mar r Apr r May r June r July r Aug r Sept r Oct r Nov r Dec r Jan r Feb r Mar p See Inventorysales ratio 4 Sales 2 Inventories Sales Inventories page 21 for manufacturing data are averages of monthly not seasonally adjusted figures monthly data are seasonally adjusted totals for month 3 Seasonally adjusted end of period 2 Annual 20 Wholesale 4 Annual Retail Inventory sales ratio 4 Inventory sales ratio 4 Retail and food services sales 2 Sales 2 Inventories data are averages of seasonally adjusted monthly ratios Note Retail trade data reflect annual benchmark revisions released April Total manufacturing and trade data reflect the revisions Source Department of Commerce Bureau of the Census MANUFACTURERS SHIPMENTS INVENTORIES AND ORDERS In March manufacturers shipments and new and unfilled orders rose inventories fell Manufacturers shipments 1 Manufacturers inventories 2 Manufacturers new orders 1 Durable goods Period Total Durable goods Nondurable goods Total Durable goods Nondurable goods Total Total Capital goods industries nondefense Manufacturers unfilled orders 2 Manufacturers inventory shipments ratio 3 Millions of dollars seasonally adjusted except as noted Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb r Mar p Annual data are averages of monthly not seasonally adjusted figures monthly data are seasonally adjusted totals for month Shipments are the same as sales 2 Seasonally adjusted end of period 3 Annual data are averages of seasonally adjusted monthly ratios NOTE Manufacturers nondurable new orders not shown are the same as nondurable shipments Also there are no unfilled nondurable orders data shown for total unfilled orders are durable unfilled orders Data exclude semiconductors Source Department of Commerce Bureau of the Census 21 PRICES PRODUCER PRICES The producer price index for all finished goods rose 1 5 percent in March Prices of finished consumer foods rose 0 1 percent while prices of other finished consumer goods rose 2 2 percent Capital equipment prices rose 0 8 percent monthly data seasonally adjusted Finished goods Period Total finished goods Finished goods excluding consumer foods Consumer foods Consumer goods Total Total p Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov r Dec Jan Feb Mar Intermediate Intermediate materials materials for food manufacturing and feeds Durable Nondurable Capital equipment Total finished consumer goods Crude materials Total Foods and feeds 1 Other Total Foodstuffs and feedstuffs Other Source Department of Labor Bureau of Labor Statistics CONSUMER PRICES ALL URBAN CONSUMERS In March the consumer price index for all urban consumers rose 0 3 percent seasonally adjusted it rose 0 6 percent not seasonally adjusted The index was 3 0 percent above its year earlier level except as noted monthly data seasonally adjusted except as noted All items 1 Housing Transportation Shelter Period Not season Seasonally ally adjust adjusted ed NSA Food Total 1 Rent of primary residence Total 1 Owners equivalent rent Fuels and utilities Apparel Total 1 New cars Motor fuel Medical care Energy 2 All items less food and energy Rel imp Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Includes items not shown separately fuels gas piped electricity fuel oil etc and motor fuel Motor oil coolant etc excluded beginning 1983 2 Household 3 Relative importance December 2002 Source Department of Labor Bureau of Labor Statistics 23 CHANGES IN PRODUCER PRICES FOR FINISHED GOODS Percent change from preceding period monthly data seasonally adjusted except as noted by NSA Change from preceding period Period Change from 3 months earlier annual rate Consumer goods Consumer goods Total finished goods Excluding foods Foods Capital equipment Change from 6 months earlier annual rate Change from year earlier total finished goods NSA Consumer goods Total finished goods Foods Excluding foods Capital equipment Total finished goods Foods Excluding foods Capital equipment r r r r Change Dec to Dec NSA p Change month to month 2002 Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov r Dec Jan Feb Mar r r Source Department of Labor Bureau of Labor Statistics CHANGES IN CONSUMER PRICES ALL URBAN CONSUMERS Percent change from preceding period monthly data seasonally adjusted except as noted by NSA Housing Transportation Shelter Period All items 1 Food Total 1 Total 1 Rent of Ownpriers mary equivaresilent dence rent Fuels and utilities Apparel Total 1 New cars Motor fuel Medical care Energy 2 All items less food and energy Addendum All items percent change annual rate From previous quarter 3 From From 3 6 months months earlier earlier From year earlier NSA Change December to December NSA Change month to month 2002 Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Includes items not shown separately fuels gas piped electricity fuel oil etc and motor fuel Motor oil coolant etc excluded beginning 1983 2 Household Quarterly changes are shown in the last month of the quarter Source Department of Labor Bureau of Labor Statistics PRICES RECEIVED AND PAID BY FARMERS In April prices received by farmers rose 2 0 percent prices paid by farmers rose 0 8 percent Data are not seasonally adjusted not seasonally adjusted Prices received by farmers Period All farm products Prices paid by farmers Livestock and products Crops All commodities services interest taxes and wage rates 1 Production items interest taxes and wage rates Production items r r r Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec r Jan r Feb r Mar r Apr r 94 r 100 r 89 r 96 r 105 r r 99 r 95 97 r r 106 r r 101 104 r r r Includes items not shown separately 2 Percentage ratio of index of prices received by farmers to index of prices paid interest taxes and wage rates 87 r 85 87 r Ratio r 79 r 76 r r79 r NOTE The official indexes are published on a base as required by law The indexes have been converted to a base to facilitate comparison with other indexes Source Department of Agriculture 25 MONEY CREDIT AND SECURITY MARKETS MONEY STOCK AND DEBT MEASURES In March M2 and M3 rose Averages of daily figures except debt end of period basis billions of dollars seasonally adjusted M1 M2 M3 Debt Sum of currency demand deposits travelers checks and other checkable deposits OCDs M1 plus retail MMMF balances savings deposits including MMDAs and small time deposits M2 plus large time deposits RPs Eurodollars and institutional MMMF balances Debt of domestic nonfinancial sectors r r Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec r 5 781 4 r r 8 462 3 r Jan r Feb r Mar Period Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec 1 Quarterly data shown in last month of quarter End of year data are for fourth quarter Consists of outstanding credit market debt of the U S Government State and local governments and private nonfinancial sectors data from flow of funds accounts 2 Annual changes are from December to December and monthly changes are from 6 months earlier at a simple annual rate 26 Percent change From year or 6 months earlier2 M1 M2 M3 From previous period3 Debt 3 Annual changes are from fourth quarter to fourth quarter Quarterly changes are from previous quarter at an annual rate NOTE See p 27 for components Source Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System COMPONENTS OF MONEY STOCK Averages of daily figures billions of dollars seasonally adjusted Period Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Currency Nonbank travelers checks Demand deposits Savings deposits including money market deposit accounts MMDAs Other checkable deposits OCDs Small denomination time deposits 1 Money market mutual fund balances Large denomination time deposits 1 Institutional Retail Overnight and term Overnight repurand term chase Euroagreedollars ments net RPs net r Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec r Jan r Feb r Mar Small denomination and large denomination deposits are those issued in amounts of less than and more than respectively Source Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System AGGREGATE RESERVES AND MONETARY BASE Averages of daily figures 1 millions of dollars seasonally adjusted except as noted by NSA Adjusted for changes in reserve requirements Reserves of depository institutions Period Total Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Borrowings of depository institutions from the Federal Reserve NSA Nonborrowed 3 Required Excess NSA Monetary base Total Primary Secondary Seasonal Adjustment r Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec r Jan Feb r Mar r Apr p r Data are prorated averages of biweekly maintenance period averages of daily figures Reserves and monetary base incorporate adjustments for discontinuities or breaks associated with changes in reserve requirements 2 Seasonally adjusted break adjusted required reserves plus unadjusted excess reserves Seasonally adjusted break adjusted total reserves less unadjusted total borrowings of depository institutions from the Federal Reserve Source Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System 27 BANK CREDIT AT ALL COMMERCIAL BANKS Total commercial bank loans and leases rose 0 5 percent in March commercial and industrial loans fell 0 7 percent Billions of dollars seasonally adjusted 1 Securities in bank credit Period Dec r Dec r Dec r Dec r Dec r Dec r Dec r Dec r Dec r Dec r Mar r Apr r May r June r July r Aug r Sept r Oct r Nov r Dec r Jan r Febr Mar Total bank credit Total securities U S Treasury and agency securities Loans and leases in bank credit Real estate CommerOther Total loans cial and securities and leases 2 industrial Data are prorated averages of Wednesday values for domestically chartered commercial banks branches and agencies of foreign banks New York State investment companies through September 1996 and Edge Act and agreement corporations Data are adjusted for breaks caused by reclassifications of assets and liabilities Total Revolving home equity Consumer Security Other Other Excludes Federal funds sold to reverse repurchase agreements RPs with and loans to commercial banks in the United States Source Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System SOURCES AND USES OF FUNDS NONFARM NONFINANCIAL CORPORATE BUSINESS Billions of dollars quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates Sources Uses External Net increase in liabilities Funds raised in markets Period Total p I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV p Internal Credit market instruments Total Capital expenditures 3 Total Total net funds raised Net new equity issues Total Profits before tax book less profit tax accruals and dividends plus consumption of fixed capital foreign earnings retained abroad inventory valuation adjustment and net capital transfers 2 Includes tax liabilities trade debt pension fund liabilities and direct foreign investment in the U S Securities and mortgages Loans and shortterm paper Other Increase in financial assets Discrepancy sources less uses Nonresidential fixed investment plus residential fixed investment inventory change with inventory valuation adjustment and access rights from U S Government Source Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System CONSUMER CREDIT Billions of dollars seasonally adjusted Consumer credit outstanding end of period Period Total Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan r Feb r Mar p Change based on data in billions of dollar as shown here For year end data change from preceding year end for monthly data change from preceding month 2 Includes automobile loans and all other loans not included in revolving credit such as loans for mobile homes education boats trailers or vacations These loans may be secured or unsecured Revolving Nonrevolving Net change in consumer credit outstanding 1 Total Revolving Nonrevolving Source Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System 29 INTEREST RATES AND BOND YIELDS Interest rates were mixed in April Percent per annum U S Treasury security yields Constant Period Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr Week ended 2003 Apr May 3 1 Bank discount 3 month bills new issues 1 3 year maturities 2 10 year 30 year Highgrade municipal bonds Standard Poor s 3 Corporate Aaa bonds Moody s 30 Primary credit basis on actively traded issues adjusted to constant maturities 3 Weekly data are Wednesday figures 4 The rate for primary credit replaces the rate for adjustment credit under an amendment to the Federal Reserve Board s Regulation A effective January Average effective rate for year rate in effect at end of month or week 2 Yields Discount window N Y F R Bank 4 6 Daily Discount rate Prime rate charged by banks 5 Federal funds rate 6 Newhome mortgage yields FHFB effective rate weighted average of rates on brokered trades 7 Effective rate in the primary market on conventional mortgages reflecting fees and charges as well as contract rate and assumed on the average repayment at end of 10 years Series no longer published or discontinued Sources Department of the Treasury Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System Federal Housing Finance Board Moody s Investors Service and Standard Poor s COMMON STOCK PRICES AND YIELDS Stock prices rose in April Common stock prices 1 Common stock yields percent 8 New York Stock Exchange indexes 2 Period Standard Poor s composite index Nasdaq composite index Feb r r Dow Jones industrial average 5 December Composite Dec Industrial Transportation Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr Week ended 2003 Apr May 3 1 Average Utility 4 of daily closing prices all the stocks nearly 3 000 listed on the NYSE January the NYSE relaunched the composite index with changes in methodology definitions and based on Dec Dec Effective April the NYSE doubled the value of the utility index to facilitate trading of options and futures on the index 5 Includes 30 stocks 6 Includes 500 stocks 7 Includes over 4 000 stocks 8 Standard Poor s series Dividend price ratios based on Wednesday closing prices Earn2 Includes 3 Effective Finance Dividendprice ratio Earningsprice ratio ings price ratios based on prices at end of quarter Sources New York Stock Exchange Dow Jones Company Inc Standard Poor s and Nasdaq Stock Market 31 FEDERAL FINANCE FEDERAL RECEIPTS OUTLAYS AND DEBT In the first 6 months of fiscal 2003 there was a deficit of 252 6 billion compared with a deficit of 131 9 billion a year earlier Billions of dollars Total On budget Off budget Receipts Outlays Surplus or deficit Receipts Fiscal year or period estimates Cumulative total first 6 months 1 Fiscal year Fiscal year Data from current issue Monthly Treasury Statement NOTE Data except as noted are from Budget of the United States Government Fiscal Year 32 Outlays Surplus or deficit Federal debt end of period Receipts Outlays Surplus or deficit Gross Federal 2004 issued February Sources Department of the Treasury and Office of Management and Budget Held by the public FEDERAL RECEIPTS BY SOURCE AND OUTLAYS BY FUNCTION In the first 6 months of fiscal 2003 receipts were 53 7 billion lower than a year earlier and outlays were 66 9 billion higher Billions of dollars On budget and off budget receipts Fiscal year or period Total Individual income taxes Corporation income taxes Social insurance and retirement receipts On budget and off budget outlays National defense Other Total estimates Cumulative total first 6 months 1 Fiscal year Fiscal year Total InterDepart nationment of al Defense affairs military Health Medicare Income Social security security Net interest Other Data from current issue Monthly Treasury Statement NOTE Data except as noted are from Budget of the United States Government Fiscal Year 2004 issued February Sources Department of the Treasury and Office of Management and Budget 33 FEDERAL SECTOR NATIONAL INCOME ACCOUNTS BASIS In the first quarter of 2003 according to advance estimates Federal current expenditures rose 29 1 billion annual rate receipts data are incomplete Billions of dollars quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates Federal Government current receipts Total Personal tax and nontax receipts Corporate profits tax accruals Indirect business tax and nontax accruals Period Calendar year III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I p Source Department of Commerce Bureau of Economic Analysis 34 Federal Government current expenditures Contributions for social insurance Total Consumption expenditures Transfer payments Grantsin aid to State and local governments Net interest paid Subsidies less current surplus of Government enterprises Less Wage accruals less disbursements Current surplus or deficit national income and product accounts INTERNATIONAL STATISTICS INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION AND CONSUMER PRICES MAJOR INDUSTRIAL COUNTRIES Industrial production seasonally adjusted Period United States p Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar p Data Canada Japan France Germany Consumer prices NSA United Kingdom Italy United States r r 111 8 r r 111 5 r r 113 2 r r r 112 4 r r r 113 7 r r 113 8 r r 114 0 r r 113 7 r r 109 9 r r 110 8 r 114 5 r 113 1 r r r relate to all urban consumers Canada Japan Germany r r Italy France United Kingdom Note See Note p 17 for information on U S industrial production series Source National sources as reported by Department of Commerce Bureau of Economic Analysis and International Trade Administration Office of Trade and Economic Analysis U S INTERNATIONAL TRADE IN GOODS AND SERVICES Billions of dollars monthly data seasonally adjusted Goods Exports f a s value Goods Imports customs value Census basis by end use category Services BOP basis Balance of trade exports minus imports Census basis by end use category BOP basis Period BOP basis Total Census basis 1 Auto ConIndusmo sumer Foods trial Capital tive goods feeds supgoods vehi nonand plies except cles food bevand auto parts except erages mate motive and autorials enmogines tive BOP basis IndusAutoFoods trial Capital motive Total feeds supgoods vehiCensus and plies except cles basis 1 bevand auto parts erages mate motive and enrials gines Consumer goods nonfood except automotive Exports Imports Goods Census basis Goods Services Goods and services Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan r Feb p Total includes other exports or imports not shown separately NOTE BOP refers to balance of payments on international transactions basis BOP data shown here are consistent with figures shown on pp 36 and 37 Source Department of Commerce Bureau of the Census and Bureau of Economic Analysis 35 U S INTERNATIONAL TRANSACTIONS In the fourth quarter of 2002 the goods deficit rose to 132 3 billion from 122 9 billion in the third quarter The current account deficit rose to 136 9 billion in the fourth quarter from 126 3 billion in the third quarter Millions of dollars quarterly data seasonally adjusted Credits debits Goods 1 Period Exports Imports Services Balance on goods Net military transactions p I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV p Adjusted Net travel and transportation from Census data for differences in timing and coverage excludes military under U S military agency sales contracts exports minus direct defense expenditures imports 2 Transfers 36 Income receipts and payments Other services net Balance on goods and services Receipts Payments Balance on income Unilateral current transfers net 3 Balance on current account Includes transfers of goods and services under U S military grant programs See p 37 for continuation of table U S INTERNATIONAL TRANSACTIONS Continued In the financial account U S claims on foreigners reported by U S banks decreased 11 0 billion in the fourth quarter of 2002 following a decrease of 53 8 billion in the third quarter U S liabilities to private foreigners reported by U S banks excluding Treasury securities increased 54 6 billion in the fourth quarter compared with an increase of 18 8 billion in the third quarter Millions of dollars quarterly data seasonally adjusted Credits debits Financial account Period Capital account transactions net U S owned assets abroad net increase financial outflow Total U S official reserve assets 4 Other U S Government assets Statistical discrepancy Foreign owned assets in the U S net increase financial inflow U S private assets Total Foreign official assets Other foreign assets Total sum of the items with sign reversed Of which Seasonal adjustment discrepancy U S official reserve assets net 4 unadjusted end of period p I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV p Consists of gold special drawing rights SDRs foreign currencies and the U S reserve position in the International Monetary Fund IMF Sources Department of Commerce Bureau of Economic Analysis and Department of the Treasury 37 Contents Page TOTAL OUTPUT INCOME AND SPENDING Gross Domestic Product Real Gross Domestic Product Implicit Price Deflators for Gross Domestic Product Gross Domestic Product and Related Price Measures Indexes and Percent Changes Nonfinancial Corporate Business Output Price Costs and Profits National Income Real Personal Consumption Expenditures Sources of Personal Income Disposition of Personal Income Farm Income Corporate Profits Real Gross Private Domestic Investment Real Private Fixed Investment by Type Business Investment EMPLOYMENT UNEMPLOYMENT AND WAGES Status of the Labor Force Selected Unemployment Rates Selected Measures of Unemployment and Unemployment Insurance Programs Nonagricultural Employment Average Weekly Hours Hourly Earnings and Weekly Earnings Private Nonagricultural Industries Employment Cost Index Private Industry Productivity and Related Data Business Sector PRODUCTION AND BUSINESS ACTIVITY Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization Industrial Production Major Market Groups and Selected Manufactures New Construction New Private Housing and Vacancy Rates Business Sales and Inventories Manufacturing and Trade Manufacturers Shipments Inventories and Orders PRICES Producer Prices Consumer Prices All Urban Consumers Changes in Producer Prices for Finished Goods Changes in Consumer Prices All Urban Consumers Prices Received and Paid by Farmers MONEY CREDIT AND SECURITY MARKETS Money Stock and Debt Measures Components of Money Stock Aggregate Reserves and Monetary Base Bank Credit at All Commercial Banks Sources and Uses of Funds Nonfarm Nonfinancial Corporate Business Consumer Credit Interest Rates and Bond Yields Common Stock Prices and Yields FEDERAL FINANCE Federal Receipts Outlays and Debt Federal Receipts by Source and Outlays by Function Federal Sector National Income Accounts Basis INTERNATIONAL STATISTICS Industrial Production and Consumer Prices Major Industrial Countries U S International Trade in Goods and Services U S International Transactions General Notes Detail in these tables may not add to totals because of rounding Unless otherwise noted all dollar figures are in current dollars Symbols used p Preliminary r Revised c Corrected Not available also not applicable NSA not seasonally adjusted 38 For sale by the Superintendent of Documents U S Government Printing Office Washington D C 20402 Price 3 00 single copy 3 75 foreign Subscription price 33 00 per year 41 25 for foreign mailing U S GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE

National Income

DATE: April 2003

PART OF:

Economic Indicators : April 2003

AUTHOR:

Council of Economic Advisers (U.S.)

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Council of Economic Advisers (U.S.) , United States. Congress. Joint Committee on the Economic Report, 1946-1956 and United States. Congress. Joint Economic Committee, 1956-. "National Income," in Council of Economic Advisers (U.S.) , United States. Congress. Joint Committee on the Economic Report, 1946-1956 and United States. Congress. Joint Economic Committee, 1956-. "April 2003," Economic Indicators (April 2003) : 6-6. https://fraser.stlouisfed.org/title/1/item/75/toc/242673 , accessed on December 6, 2019.

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Economic Data