Full text of Economic Indicators : June 1989
The full text on this page is automatically extracted from the file linked above and may contain errors and inconsistencies.
Wist Congress, 1st Session Economic Indicators JUNE 1989 (Includes data available as of June 29, 1989) Prepared for the Joint Economic Committee by the Council of Economic Advisers UNITED STATES GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE WASHINGTON : 1989 JOINT ECONOMIC COMMITTEE (Created pursuant to Sec. 5(a) of Public Law 304, 79th Cong.) LEE H. HAMILTON, Indiana, Chairman PAUL S. SARBANES, Maryland, Vice Chairman HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES AUGUSTUS F. HAWKINS (California) DAVID R. OBEY (Wisconsin) JAMES H. SCHEUER (New York) FORTNEY H. (PETE) STARK (California) STEPHEN J. SOLARZ (New York) CHALMERS P. WYLIE (Ohio) OLYMPIA J. SNOWE (Maine) HAMILTON FISH, JR. (New York) FREDERICK S. UPTON (Michigan) SENATE LLOYD BENTSEN (Texas) EDWARD M. KENNEDY (Massachusetts) JEFF BINGAMAN (New Mexico) ALBERT GORE, JR. (Tennessee) RICHARD H. BRYAN (Nevada) WILLIAM V. ROTH, JR. (Delaware) STEVE SYMMS (Idaho) PETE WILSON (California) CONNIE MACK (Florida) JOSEPH J. MINARIK, Executive Director COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS MICHAEL J. BOSKIN, Chairman JOHN B. TAYLOR, Member [PUBLIC LAW 120—SlsT CONGRESS; CHAPTER 237—IST SESSION] JOINT RESOLUTION [SJ. Res. 55] To print the monthly publication entitled "Economic Indicators" Resolved by the Senate and House of Representatives of the United States of America in Congress assembled, That the Joint Economic Committee be authorized to issue a monthly publication entitled "Economic Indicators," and that a sufficient quantity be printed to furnish one copy to each Member of Congress; the Secretary and the Sergeant at Arms of the Senate; the Clerk, Sergeant at Arms, and Doorkeeper of the House of Representatives; two copies to the libraries of the Senate and House, and the Congressional Library; seven hundred copies to the Joint Economic Committee; and the required numbers of copies to the Superintendent of Documents for distribution to depository libraries; and that the Superintendent of Documents be authorized to have copies printed for sale to the public. Approved June 23, 1949. Charts drawn by Art Production Branch, Office of the Secretary, Department of Commerce. Economic Indicators, published monthly, is available at $2.25 a single copy ($2.81 foreign), or by subscription at $24.00 per year ($30.00 for foreign mailing) from: SUPERINTENDENT OF DOCUMENTS GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE WASHINGTON, D.C. 20402 11 TOTAL OUTPUT, INCOME, AND SPENDING t3ROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT In the first quarter of 1989, according to revised estimates, current-dollar gross national product (GNP) rose 8.2 percent (annual rate) or $99.3 billion. Real GNP (GNP adjusted for price changes) rose 4.4 percent and the implicit price deflator rose 3.6 percent. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS (RATIO SCALE) BILLIONS OF DOLLARS (RATIO SCALE) 5,200 5,200 SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES " 4,800 — 4,800 -^ - — 4,400 GNP INCU RRENT DOLLAR s _ ^—" ^\ 4,400 — 4,000 4 000 ,,---'"" — — < " " 1 ^ " " 3,600 - 3,600 — GNP IN 1982DOLLA *S 3,200 ^- 3,200 — ^ 2,800 2,800 - — 2,400 2,400 2,000 1 1 1 1981 1 1 1 \ \ \ 1 1983 1982 1 1 1984 1 1 1 1 1985 1 1 1986 1 1 1 1987 1 SOURCE; DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE 1 1 1988 1 1 1 2,000 1989 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Billions of current dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Government purchases of goods and services Exports and imports of goods and services Personal consumption expenditures Gross private domestic investment 2,732.0 3,052.6 3,166.0 3,405.7 3,772.2 4,014.9 4,240.3 4,526.7 4,864.3 1,732.6 1,915.1 2,050.7 2,234.5 2,430.5 2,629.0 2,807.5 3,012.1 3,227.5 437.0 515.5 447.3 502.3 664.8 643.1 665.9 712.9 766.5 32.1 33.9 26.3 -6.1 589 -78.0 104 4 -123.0 -94.6 351.0 382.8 361.9 352.5 383.5 370.9 378.4 428.0 519.7 318.9 348.9 335.6 358.7 442.4 448.9 482.8 551.1 614.4 530.3 588.1 641.7 675.0 735.9 820.8 871.2 924.7 964.9 208.1 242.2 272.7 283.5 310.5 355.2 366.2 382.0 381.0 142.7 167.5 193.8 214.4 234.3 259.1 277.5 295.3 298.4 65.4 74.8 78.9 69.1 76.2 96.0 88.7 86.7 82.6 IV IV IV IV IV 3,212.5 3,545.8 3,851.8 4,107.9 4,304.6 2,117.0 2,315.8 2,493.4 2,700.4 2,876.0 409.6 579.8 661.8 654.1 656.4 14.1 258 -67.9 - 103.2 -114.3 335.9 364.7 385.7 369.2 385.2 321.9 390.5 453.6 472.4 499.4 671.8 676.1 764.5 856.7 886.5 293.2 276.1 326.0 376.6 366.7 205.4 221.5 244.1 268.6 278.1 1987- III IV 4,568.0 4,662.8 3,058.2 3,076.3 702.8 764.9 1252 -125.7 440.4 459.7 / 565.6 585.4 932.2 947.3 386.3 391.4 1988- I II Ill IV 4,724.5 4,823.8 4,909.0 4,999.7 3,128.1 3,194.6 3,261.2 3,326.4 763.4 758.1 772.5 772.0 112 1 -90.4 800 -96.1 487.8 507.1 536.1 548.0 599.9 597.5 616.0 644.0 945.2 961.6 955.3 997.5 1989: I r 5,099.0 3,378.1 788.9 79.3 573.8 653.2 1,011.3 Period 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1982: 19831984: 19851986: 1 Gross national product Net exports GNP less exports of goods and services plus imports of goods and services. Final sales Gross domestic purchases l 322.2 345.9 369.0 391.5 425.3 465.6 505.0 542.8 583.9 2,740.3 3,028.6 3,190.5 3,412.8 3,704.5 4,003.6 4,224.7 4,487.5 4,815.9 2,699.8 3,018.7 3,139.7 3,411.8 3,831.1 4,092.8 4,344.7 4,649.7 4,958.9 87.7 54.6 81.9 108.0 88.7 378.7 400.0 438.5 480.1 519.7 3,272.4 3,514.8 3,806.8 4,100.7 4,306.6 3,198.5 3,571.6 3,919.7 4,211.2 4,418.9 299.8 299.2 86.4 92.2 546.0 555.9 4,553.5 4,590.7 4,693.2 4,788.4 377.7 382.2 367.7 396.3 298.4 298.8 294.3 301.9 79.3 83.4 73.4 94.3 567.5 579.4 587.6 601.2 4,659.2 4,780.1 4,859.3 4,965.0 4,836.6 4,914.2 4,989.0 5,095.8 397.6 299.5 98.1 613.7 5,058.6 5,178.4 Federal Exports Imports Total Total National defense Nondefense State and local Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT IN 1982 DOLLARS [Billions of 1982 dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Period 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 19821983: 19841985: 1986- 1987- in .. . rv 1988- I n in IV 1989: I r 1 Personal consumption expenditures Gross national product IV IV IV IV IV Gross private domestic investment 3,187.1 3,248.8 3,166.0 3,279.1 3,501.4 3,618.7 3,721.7 3,847.0 3,996.1 3,159.3 3,365.1 3,535.2 3,662.4 3,734.7 3,865.3 3,923.0 3,956.1 3,985.2 4,009.4 4,033.4 4,077.5 Noraesidential fixed 2,000.4 2,024.2 2,050.7 2,146.0 2,249.3 2,354.8 2,455.2 2,521.0 2,592.2 2,078.7 2,191.9 2,281.1 2,386.9 2,486.2 2,545.2 2,531.7 2,559.8 2,579.0 2,603.8 2,626.2 2,634.9 379.2 395.2 366.7 361.2 425.2 453.5 433.1 445.1 487.5 352.3 390.4 444.4 460.9 427.3 462.8 464.8 473.4 490.2 495.0 491.4 500.5 Residential fixed 137.0 126.5 105.1 149.3 170.9 174.4 195.0 195.2 191.8 115.8 159.9 169.6 179.4 199.7 192.1 192.7 189.5 189.6 191.6 196.6 194.3 Exports and imports of goods and services Change in business inventories -6.9 23.9 -24.5 -6.4 62.3 9.1 15.4 34.4 42.5 593 27.0 41.7 7.7 105 13.0 67.1 66.0 35.3 39.5 29.1 35.5 Government purchases of goods and services Federal Net exports Exports 57.0 49.4 26.3 199 -84.0 1043 -137.5 1289 -100.2 11.7 -46.2 -94.8 -125.3 -142.4 -130.7 - 126.0 - 109.0 -92.6 -93.9 -105.4 -85.9 388.9 392.7 361.9 348.1 371.8 367.2 378.4 427.8 504.8 336.0 355.5 376.6 367.4 387.8 440.9 459.2 486.2 496.9 514.0 522.1 540.7 GTSP less exports o! goods and services plus imports of goods and services. Imports Total Total 332.0 343.4 335.6 368.1 455.8 471.4 515.9 556.7 605.0 324.3 401.6 471.4 492.6 530.2 571.6 585.2 595.1 589.5 607.9 627.4 626.6 620.5 629.7 641.7 649.0 677.7 731.2 760.5 780.2 782.3 660.1 642.2 693.2 752.7 774.5 782.9 792.6 776.4 783.8 773.5 795.5 798.2 246.9 259.6 272.7 275.1 290.8 326.0 333.4 339.0 328.7 289.5 266.0 300.5 340.6 340.5 342.1 347.7 327.8 331.6 320.1 335.5 335.8 National defense 171.2 180.3 193.8 206.9 218.5 237.2 251.4 264.9 261.8 201.4 211.6 225.3 241.4 253.1 269.5 268.2 264.6 263.6 256.4 262.5 256.6 Nondefense 75.7 79.3 78.9 68.2 72.3 88.8 82.0 74.1 66.9 88.2 54.4 75.2 99.2 81.4 72.6 79.5 63.2 67.9 63.7 72.9 79.1 State and local 373.6 370.1 369.0 373.9 387.0 405.2 427.1 441.2 453.6 370.6 376.2 S92.7 412.1 434.0 440.8 444.9 448.7 452.2 453.4 460.0 462.4 Final sales Gross domestic purchases * 3,194.0 3,225.0 3,190.5 3,285.5 3,439.1 3,609.6 3,706.3 3,812.6 3,953.6 3,218.6 3,338.1 8,498.5 3,654.7 3,145.2 3,852.2 3,855.9 3,890.1 3,949.9 3,969.9 4,004.4 4,042.0 3,130.1 3,199.4 3,139.7 3,299.1 3,585.4 3,723.0 3,859.3 3,975.9 4,096.3 3,147.6 3,411.3 3,6SQ.O 3,787.6 3,871.2 3,996.0 4,049.0 4,065.1 4,077.9 4,103.4 4,138.8 4,163.4 Source: Department o! Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. IMPLICIT PRICE DEFLATORS FOR GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT [1982 = 100; quarterly data are seasonally adjusted] Period 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1982: 19831984: 19851986: 1987: IV IV IV IV IV HI IV 1988: I n m IV 1989: I r Gross national product 85.7 94.0 100.0 103.9 107.7 110.9 113.9 117.7 121.7 101.7 105.4 109.0 112.2 115.3 118.2 118.9 119.4 121.0 122.4 124.0 125.1 Total 86.6 94.6 100.0 104.1 108.1 111.6 114.3 119.5 124.5 101.8 105.7 109.3 113.1 115.7 120.2 121.5 122.2 123.9 125.2 126.7 128.2 Durable goods 89.2 95.7 100.0 102.1 103.8 104.8 105.6 107.9 110.1 100.7 103.1 104.1 104.T 106.2 108.6 108.9 109.1 109.6 110.4 111.4 111.5 Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analyai Gross private domestic investment Personal consumption expenditures Nondurable goods 89.4 96.9 100.0 102.1 105.0 107.5 107.3 112.1 116.4 101.0 103.1 105.8 108.7 107.8 112.9 113.7 113.8 116.0 117.3 118.3 119.9 Services 83.9 92.6 100.0 106.2 111.6 116.8 122.4 128.5 134.8 102.7 108.3 113.5 119.0 124.6 129.1 131.0 132.2 134.0 135.6 137.3 139.2 Nonresidential fixed 85.1 93.4 100.0 98.8 97.9 97.7 100.2 100.4 100.2 100.7 98.3 97.9 97 .9 101.6 99.9 99.8 99.6 99.5 99.7 101.9 102.2 Exports and imports of goods and services Government purchases of goods and services Federal Residential fixed 89.4 96.6 100.0 102.2 106.0 108.3 111.1 116.2 119.7 99.1 103.1 107.2 109.0 112.4 117.7 118.7 119.5 119.5 119.6 120.4 122.1 Exports 90.2 97.5 100.0 101.3 103.2 101.0 100.0 100.0 102.9 100.0 102.6 102.4 100.5 99.3 99.9 100.1 100.3 102.1 104.3 105.0 106.1 Imports 96.0 101.6 100.0 97.4 97.1 95.2 93.6 99.0 101.5 99.3 97.2 96.2 95.9 94.2 98.9 100.0 100.8 101.4 101.3 102.6 104.2 Total 84.3 93.3 100.0 103.1 106.8 109.0 109.8 112.7 115.9 101.3 103.8 108.5 110.6 107.7 112.9 112.6 115.2 115.3 114.9 118.1 118.4 National defense 83.4 92.9 100.0 103.6 107.2 109.2 110.4 111.5 114.0 102.0 104.7 108.3 111.3 109.9 111.3 111.6 112.8 113.4 114.8 115.0 116.7 Nondefense 86.4 94.3 100.0 101.4 105.5 108.2 108.2 117.0 123.4 99.5 100.3 108.9 108.8 101.5 119.0 116.0 125.5 122.7 115.2 129.3 123.9 State and local 86.2 93.4 100.0 104.7 109.9 114.9 118.2 123.0 128.7 102.2 106.3 111.7 116.5 119.7 123.9 124.9 126.5 128.1 129.6 130.7 132.7 CHANGES IN GNP, PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES, AND RELATED PRICE MEASURES [Percent change from previous period; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Personal consumption expenditures Gross national product Period 8.9 11.7 3.7 7.6 10.8 6,4 5.6 6.8 7.5 4,2 12.4 4.7 6.2 3.4 7.7 8.6 5,4 8.7 7.3 7.6 8.2 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1982: 19831984: 19851986: 1987: 1988: IV IV. IV IV IV. III IV I... Constant (1982) dollars Current dollars . .. n m IV 1989- I ' -0.2 1.9 -2.5 3.6 6.8 3.4 2.8 3.4 3.9 .6 7.3 1.1 3.0 1.4 4.5 6.1 3.4 3.0 2.5 2.4 4.4 Implicit price deflator Chain price index 9.0 9.4 6.3 4.1 3.9 3.3 2.5 3.4 3.8 4.1 3.9 3.1 3.2 2.4 3.6 3.4 3.0 4.8 4.7 4.2 4.3 9.0 9.7 6.4 3.9 3.7 3.0 2.7 3.3 3.4 3.6 4.7 3.0 3.3 2.1 3.1 2.4 1.7 5.5 4.7 5.3 3.6 NOTE.—Annual changes are from previous year and quarterly changes are from previous quarter. Fixedweighted price index (1982 weights) 9.3 9.3 6.2 4.1 4.0 3.4 2.8 3.6 4.2 4.0 4.0 3.2 3.3 2.8 3.7 3.8 3.5 5.0 5.3 4.2 4.6 Implicit price deflator Constant (1982) dollars Current dollars Chain price index 02 1.2 1.3 4.6 4.8 4.7 4.3 2.7 2.8 10.7 9.2 5.7 4.1 3.8 3.2 2.4 4.5 4.2 5.3 5.5 4.3 1.9 1.2 4.4 4.3 3.0 4.0 3.5 4.6 -2.1 4.4 4.4 4.5 3.0 3.9 3.5 2.3 5.7 4.3 4.9 1.3 10.6 10.5 7.1 9.0 8.8 8.2 6.8 7.3 7.2 10.3 9.7 7.2 6.0 4.8 9.1 2.4 6.9 8.8 8.6 8.2 6.4 4,8 10.9 9.2 5.7 4.2 3.9 3.5 2.7 4.5 4.2 4.8 4.1 3.1 4.2 3.5 4.3 4.4 2.5 5.6 4.6 4.7 4.7 Fixedweighted price index (1982 weights) 10.5 9.0 5.6 4.2 4.0 3.5 2.7 4.5 4.3 4.8 4.1 3.2 4.3 3.5 4.2 4.6 2.4 5.7 4.9 4.8 4.8 Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. NONFINANCIAL CORPORATE BUSINESS-OUTPUT, COSTS, AND PROFITS [Quarterly data at season Current-dollar cost and profit per unit of output (dollars) 1 Gross domestic product of nonfinancial corporate business (billions of dollars) Period Total cost and profit 2 Indirect business taxes 3 0.852 .946 1.000 1.026 1.054 1.071 1.089 1.107 1.134 0.095 .109 .125 .123 .118 .119 .121 .122 .122 0.077 .090 .094 .098 .100 .103 .105 .106 .107 .131 .120 .118 .120 .122 .121 .121 .121 .122 .122 .123 .125 1982 dollars IV IV IV IV IV HI IV 1988- I . II Ill IV 1,540.8 1,738.4 1,782.2 1,914.2 2,146.7 2,267.1 2,371.6 2,513.5 2,711.3 1,779.4 2,012.5 2,201.8 2,309.2 2,409.3 2,546.9 2,585.6 2,633.2 2,684.0 2,732.1 2,796.1 1,807.9 1,837.2 1,782.2 1,866.0 2,036.5 2,117.4 2,177.2 2,270.4 2,390.4 1,760.2 1,940.5 2,069.5 2,137.7 2,199.0 2,296.1 2,322.5 2,363.5 2,380.9 2,395.5 2,421.7 1.011 1.037 1.064 1.080 1.096 1.109 1.113 1.114 1.127 1.140 1.155 1989- I ' 2,824.9 2,432.7 1.161 1 Output is measured by gross domestic product of nonfinancial corporate business in 1982 dol- 2 This is equal to the deflator for gross domestic product of nonfinancial corporate business with the decimal point shifted two places to the left. 3 Indirect business tax and nontax liability plus business transfer payments less subsidies. Corporate profits with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments Capital consumption allowances with capital consumption adjustment Current dollars 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1982: 1983: 19841985: 19861987: djusted annual rates] Compensation of employees Net interest .096 .098 .102 .104 .105 .106 .105 .105 .106 .108 .108 0.581 .632 .676 .679 .687 .704 .719 .732 .752 .685 .680 .694 .713 .725 .729 .738 .736 .747 .758 .766 0.031 .037 .043 .037 .039 .038 .039 .043 .048 .042 .037 .042 .037 .040 .044 .046 .045 .047 .048 .050 0.068 .078 .063 .089 .109 .106 .106 .105 .106 .057 .103 .107 .106 .104 .109 .103 .109 .778 .052 4 Total Profits tax liability Profits after tax 4 Output per hour of all employees (1982 dollars) Compensation per hour of all employees (dollars) 9.939 10.861 11.699 12.122 12.569 13.075 13.605 14.062 14.640 11.914 12.261 12.746 13.288 13.815 14.110 14.291 0.031 .044 .037 .057 .073 .073 .071 .061 .060 .034 .066 .075 .072 .065 .063 .059 .062 .060 .058 .061 17.096 17.194 17.318 17.865 18.287 18.584 18.927 19.216 19.471 .106 .106 .104 .107 0.037 .035 .026 .032 .036 .033 .035 .044 .045 .023 .036 .032 .033 .039 .046 .044 .044 .046 .046 .046 .098 .046 .051 19.392 17.383 18.029 18.359 18.639 19.043 19.362 19.357 19.560 19.481 19.443 19.454 14.397 14.546 14.743 14.908 15.097 With inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments. Sources: Department of Commerce {Bureau of Economic Analysis) and Department of Labor (Bureau of Labor Statistics). NATIONAL INCOME [Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] National income Period Compensation of employees1 Proprietors' income with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments Farm 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 198219831984: 19851986: 1987- Kental income of persons with capital consumption adjustment Nonfarm Corporate profits with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments Profits with inventory valuation adjustment and without capital consumption adjustment Total Total Profits before tax Inventory valuation adjustment Capital consumption adjustment Net interest 2,518.4 2,719.5 3,028.6 3,234.0 3,437.1 3,678.7 3,968.4 2,548.2 2,851.5 3,096.1 3,312.8 3,496.6 3,708.0 3,802.0 1,907.0 2,020.7 2,213.9 2,367.5 2,507.1 2,683.4 2,904.7 1,931.1 2,092.7 2,272.7 2,426.7 2,565.8 2,702.8 2,769.9 24.6 12.4 30.5 30.2 36.4 43.0 36.3 28.5 19.3 28.1 29.2 38.4 35.2 47.0 150.9 178.4 204.0 225.6 250.3 270.0 288.2 159.8 188.6 209.7 235.0 255.8 271.5 279.0 13.6 13.2 8.5 9.2 12.4 18.4 19.3 15.8 12.4 5.6 7.8 13.4 18.1 20.5 150.0 213.7 266.9 282.3 298.9 310.4 328.4 146.1 248.5 266.9 291.4 293.9 322.0 316.1 159.2 196.7 234.2 222.6 244.7 258.7 282.8 150.7 223.4 224.6 228.4 244.1 269.9 263.7 169.6 207.6 240.0 224.3 236.4 276.7 306.6 164.1 231.5 226.1 235.0 252.1 289.4 281.9 -10.4 -10.9 -5.8 17 8.3 -18.0 -23.8 -13.4 81 -1.6 66 -8.1 -19.5 -18.2 -9.2 17.0 32.7 59.7 54.2 51.7 45.6 -4.5 25.1 42.3 63.0 49.8 52.1 52.4 272.3 281.0 304.8 319.0 331.9 353.6 391.5 266.9 290.2 313.1 322.7 329.3 358.3 369.5 in 3,850.8 3,928.8 4,000.7 4,093.4 2,816.4 2,874.0 2,933.2 2,995.3 44.7 43.4 30.9 26.0 279.2 285.3 290.7 297.7 20.5 19.1 19.7 18.1 316.2 326.5 330.0 340.9 266.8 278.5 284.6 301.3 286.2 305.9 313.9 320.6 -19.4 -27.4 -29.3 -19.2 49.4 48.0 45.4 39.6 373.9 380.6 396.2 415.4 1989- I ' 4,188.9 3,060.9 57.1 300.9 14.4 319.4 286.1 320.2 -34.1 33.3 436.2 . IV IV IV IV IV in rv 1988: I II IV 1 .... Includes employer contributions for social insurance. (See also p. 5.) Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES [Billions of dollars, except as noted; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Nondurable goods Durable goods Period Total personal consumption expenditures Total durable goods Motor vehicles and parts Furniture and household equipment Other Total nondurable goods Food Clothing and shoes Gasoline and oil Other Services Retail sales of new passenger cars (millions of units) Domestics Imports 1982 1983 1984 1985 .. . 1986 1987 1988 1982- IV 1983: IV 1984: IV 1985: IV 1986- IV. 1987: HI IV 2,050.7 2,234.5 2,430.5 2,629.0 2,807.5 3,012.1 3,227.5 2,117.0 2,315.8 2,493.4 2,700.4 2,876.0 3,058.2 3,076.3 252.7 289.1 335.5 372.2 406.5 421.9 451.1 263.8 310.0 346.7 373.2 421.8 441.4 422.0 108.9 130.4 157.4 179.1 196.4 195.8 208.6 115.7 144.4 162.3 173.8 201.0 212.9 194.0 95.7 107.1 118.8 129.9 140.0 148.3 159.0 99.1 112.4 122.7 134.7 143.3 150.2 149.4 48.1 51.6 59.3 63.2 70.1 77.8 83.6 49.0 53.2 61.8 64.7 77.5 78.3 78.6 771.0 816.7 867.3 911.2 943.6 997.9 1,046.9 786.6 837.9 879.6 932.7 954.1 1,006.6 1,012.4 398.8 421.9 448.5 471.6 501.0 526.4 551.5 407.0 430.8 456.1 482.5 512.6 528.4 530.9 124.4 135.1 146.7 156.4 167.0 178.2 186.4 126.5 141.1 149.8 160.6 169.4 180.4 181.2 89.1 90.2 90.0 90.6 73.3 77.0 78.8 89.8 91.9 89.0 91.0 66.3 79.3 79.3 158.7 169.5 182.1 192.6 202.2 216.3 230.2 163.4 174.0 184.7 198.5 205.8 218.5 220.9 1,027.0 1,128.7 1,227.6 1,345.6 1,457.3 1,592.3 1,729.6 1,066.5 1,167.9 1,267.1 1,394.5 1,500.1 1,610.2 1,641.9 5.8 6.8 8.0 8.2 8.2 7.1 7.5 6.0 7.4 7.7 7.0 7.7 8.0 6.6 2.2 2.4 2.4 2.8 3.2 3.2 3.1 2.5 2.6 2.6 3.1 3.4 3.5 3.3 1988: I n ni IV 3,128.1 3,194.6 3,261.2 3,326.4 437.8 449.8 452.9 464.0 202.2 208.7 210.2 213.2 154.7 159.5 159.5 162.3 81.0 81.5 83.2 88.5 1,016.2 1,036.6 1,060.8 1,073.9 535.9 546.3 558.9 564.9 180.5 183.2 188.4 193.6 76.3 78.8 80.5 79.5 223.5 228.2 233.0 235,9 1,674.1 1,708.2 1,747.5 1,788.5 7.6 7.5 7.6 7.5 3.2 3.1 3.1 3.0 1989- I * 3,378.1 459.9 206.8 167.7 85.4 1,092.7 577.9 194.0 79.2 241.6 1,825.5 6.9 2.9 Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. SOURCES OF PERSONAL INCOME Personal income rose $13.0 billion (annual rate) in May, following an increase of $21.0 billion in April. The kicreases were affected by three special factors: Profit-sharing payments to employees in the motor vehicle industry "nd retroactive social security benefit payments—both occurring in March—lowered the April increase, while changes in subsidy payments to farm proprietors lowered the April increase and raised the May increase. Excluding these special factors, personal income increased $10.4 billion in May and $37.6 billion in April. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS*(RATIO SCALE) 5,000 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS*(RATIO SCALE) 5,0001 4,000 4,000 3,000 3,000 2,000 2,000 WAGE AND SALARY DISBURSEMENTS 1,400 1,400 OTHER INCOME 800 800 TRANSFER PAYMENTS 400 /• nmlinii iMiilinii 1981 H/llllllll 1982 400 imilnin inniuin I l l l l l l l l l l Hlllllllll jjiiilmn imiliiin 1984 1983 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Billions of dollars; monthly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Period Total personal income Wage and salary disbursements l Proprietors' income 3 Other labor income * 2 Farm Nonfarm Rental income of persons 4 Personal dividend income Personal interest income Transfer payments 5 Less: Personal contributions for social insurance Nonfarm personal income 6 1980 1981 1982.... 1983 1984.... 1985 1986.... 1987 1988.... 2,258.4 2,520.9 2,670.8 2,838.6 3,108.7 3,325.3 3,531.1 3,780.0 4,062.1 1,372.0 1,510.3 1,586.1 1,676.6 1,838.6 1,975.4 2,094.0 2,248.4 2,436.9 138.4 150.3 163.6 173.6 182.9 187.6 196.1 207.9 218.3 20.5 30.7 24.6 12.4 30.5 30.2 36.4 43.0 36.3 160.1 156.1 150.9 178.4 204.0 225.6 250.3 270.0 288.2 6.6 13.3 13.6 13.2 8.5 9.2 12.4 18.4 19.3 52.9 61.3 63.9 68.7 75.5 78.7 82.8 88.6 96.3 271.9 335.4 369.7 393.1 444.7 478.0 499.1 527.0 575.9 324.7 368.1 410.6 442.6 456.6 489.8 521.1 548.8 586.0 88.6 104.5 112.3 120.1 132.7 149.3 161.1 172.0 195.1 2,215.8 2,465.6 2,618.7 2,799.0 3,052.1 3,271.3 3,472.5 3,716.0 4,004.8 1988: May 4,021.4 4,044.9 4,075.3 4,091.8 4,114.7 4,175.5 4,165.2 4,200.8 2,408.4 2,427.5 2,451.9 2,459.1 2,475.0 2,506.9 2,514.1 2,529.5 216.4 217.4 218.5 219.5 220.5 221.5 222.5 223.5 45.2 40.3 34.1 31.4 27.2 41.5 13.5 23.1 285.2 287.5 289.4 290.2 292.6 296.1 297.5 299.5 18.9 19.0 19.3 19.7 20.0 19.0 18.0 17.2 95.0 95.4 96.3 97.5 98.0 98.9 99.4 99.8 563.7 568.7 574.9 581.8 589.1 596.4 603.7 611.1 582.0 583.6 587.0 589.2 589.7 594.7 596.5 597.9 193.4 194.6 196.2 196.5 197.4 199.5 200.0 200.9 3,955.1 3,983.3 4,020.2 4,039.3 4,066.3 4,112.8 4,130.4 4,156.4 4,273.1 4,318.2 4,355.7 4,376.7 4,389.7 2,559.2 2,571.2 2,593.6 2,611.2 2,616.1 224.5 225.4 226.4 227.4 228.4 47.3 64.7 59.4 52.0 50.7 300.8 301.1 300.9 302.8 303.1 15.7 14.3 13.1 12.8 12.5 101.2 102.1 103.0 103.6 104.0 621.5 634.1 646.9 654.9 662.9 612.4 615.2 623.7 624.4 624.8 209.4 210.0 211.2 212.5 212.8 4,204.5 4,232.1 4,274.9 4,303.2 4,317.4 July Sept Oct Dec 1989- Jan r Feb r Mar r Apr r May p 1 The total of wage and salary disbursements and other labor income differs from compensation of employees (see p. 4) in that it excludes employer contributions for social insurance and the excess of 'M;e accruals over wage disbursements. I* Consists primarily of employer contributions to private pension and private welfare funds. 3 With inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments. 4 With capital consumption adjustment. 5 Consists mainly of social insurance benefits, direct relief, and veterans payments. 6 Personal income exclusive of farm proprietors' income, farm wages, farm other labor income, and agricultural net interest. Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. DISPOSITION OF PERSONAL INCOME Real per capita disposable personal income rose again in the first quarter of 1989. BHJ.IONS OF DOLLARS * (RATIO SCALE) 4,000 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS * (RATIO SCALE) 6,000 6,000 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS * SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE Period Personal Less: Personal tax and nontax payments T, 1 Disposable income Less: Personal outlays * Equals: Personal saving Per capita disposable personal income Disposable personal income in 1982 dollars (billions) Current dollars 22584 2,520 9 2 6708 2 838 6 3,1087 3 325 3 3,531 1 3,780.0 4,062.1 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986.... 1987 1988 3405 393 3 409 3 4105 440 2 4866 511 4 5703 590.3 Current dollars 1982 dollars Dollars Billions of dollars 1980. 1982 dollars Per capita personal consumption expenditures 1 917 9 1 781 1 2 1276 2 261 4 2 428 1 2 6686 2 838 7 3 019 6 3 209 7 3,471.8 1 968 1 2 107 5 2 297 4 25045 2 713 3 2 8980 3,105 5 3,327.5 136 8 1594 153 9 130 6 164 1 125 4 121 7 1042 144.3 8421 9243 9 724 10 340 11 257 11 861 12 496 13 157 14,103 2 214 3 2 248 6 2 261 5 2 331 9 24698 2 542 8 2 6409 2,686 3 2,788.3 Percent change in real per capita disposable personal income Saving as percent oS disposable personal income Population, including Armed Forces abroad (thousands) 2 Percent 2.1 4.9 20 2.9 .8 2.9 7.1 7.5 6.8 5.4 6.1 4.4 4.0 3.2 4.2 227,754 230,182 232,549 234,829 237,051 239,322 241,650 243,944 246,179 9 722 9,769 9 724 9930 10,419 10 625 10929 11,012 11,326 7 607 8,320 8 818 9515 10,253 10985 11 618 12,348 13,110 8,783 8,794 8818 9,139 9,489 9,839 10,160 10,334 10,530 — 1.1 .5 Seasonally adjusted annual rates 2,729.2 2,941.8 3,188.3 3,399.1 3,599.6 411.1 413.9 459.7 499.6 534.9 2,318.1 2,527.9 2,728.6 2,899.5 3,064.7 2,174.9 2,382.5 2,571.3 2,787.7 2,967.9 143.1 145.4 157.3 111.7 96.8 2,276.1 2,392.7 2,496.3 2,562.8 2,649.4 9,929 10,725 11,467 12,068 12,635 9,749 10,151 10.491 10,667 10,923 9,068 9,825 10,479 11,240 11,857 8,904 9,299 9,587 9,935 10,250 1.2 9.1 1.7 3.3 -.2 6.2 5.8 5.8 3.9 3.2 233,466 235,707 237,946 240,257 242,557 1987: HI.... IV 3,801.0 3,906.8 576.2 591.0 3,224.9 3,315.8 3,152.3 3,171.8 72.6 144.0 2,683.9 2,728.9 13,204 13,543 10,989 11,145 12,521 12,564 10,421 10,340 3.7 5.8 2.3 4.3 244,236 244,845 1988: I IV 3,951.4 4,022.4 4,094.0 4,180.5 575.8 601.0 586.5 598.0 3,375.6 3,421.5 3,507.5 3,582.5 3,225.7 3,293.6 3,361.8 3,428.7 149.9 127.8 145.7 153.8 2,762.3 2,762.2 2,800.4 2,828.4 13,760 13,919 14,231 14,497 11,260 11,237 11,362 11,445 12,751 12,996 13,232 13,461 10,435 10,492 10,564 10,627 4.2 -.8 4.5 3.0 4.4 3.7 4.2 4.3 245,318 245,806 246,469 247,123 1989: I r 4,315.7 635.1 3,680.6 3,482.7 197.9 2,870.8 14,861 11,592 13,640 10,639 5.2 5.4 247,667 1982: 1983: 1984: 1985: 1986: IV IV IV IV IV n m.... 1 Includes personal consumption expenditures, interest paid by consumers to business, and personal transfer payments to foreigners (net). 2 Annual data are averages of quarterly data, which are averages for the period. Source: Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis and Bureau of the Census). FARM INCOME •ta the first quarter of 1989, according Jo preliminary estimates, gross farm income rose $36.5 billion (annual rate) Ind net farm income rose $42.8 billion. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE) 240 200 1f~^- 160 —— , BILLIONS OF DOLLARS * (RATIO SCALE) , •*• r ____ T^ —-^ 120 r—" ' ^" 240 200 / r_^x~--^^ ^j 1 160 120 GR 3SS FARM INC OMb 80 60 * / '\ 40 ^... / % 20 "l i • x » '' / i / » > 1 1 \ 1 — —1 10 'V ^ 60 1 1 1 \ \ V' V NN / / / , / ^\ 1 ' l1 it 20 Ht T FARM INCOMt l . 1 t\ J l \ I I \l 1 \> 10 \J \! t t 1 1 1 1 i i i 1 1 1983 T982 198? 1 1 1 1 t 1 1985 ?984 ! l 1986 i i t 1987 * SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE 1 1 1 1986 1 1 1 1989 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Income of farm operators from farming Net farm income Gross farm income Period Cash marketing receipts Total ' Total 1980 1981 1982 .. 1983 Livestock and products Crops 149.3 166.4 163.5 153.0 174.9 166.2 159.8 169.8 174.0 139.7 141.7 142.6 136.6 142.4 144.0 135.1 138.1 150.2 68.0 69.2 70.3 69.4 73.0 69.8 71.5 76.2 77.9 71.7 72.5 72.3 67.1 69.5 74.2 63.6 61.9 72.4 158.1 162.6 137.8 137.7 77.3 73.0 60.5 64.7 IV 173.6 162.5 168.9 173.7 169.2 188.2 179.6 158.9 134.9 134.4 146.5 136.6 141.1 157.5 167.5 134.8 73.3 77.0 79.6 75.1 76.3 74.7 82.9 77.5 61.6 57.4 66.9 61.5 64.8 82.8 84.6 57.3 1989: I" 195.4 158.8 80.5 78.3 1984.. 1985 1986 .. • 1987 1988 .. 1986: III IV 1987: I . n m IV 1988- I n in . Cash marketing receipts and inventory changes plus Government payments, other farm cash e, and ?'hysicalnonmoneyinincome furnished by farms, crop and livestock commodities valued at changes end-of-year inventory of during the year. average 3 Value of inventory changes 2 -6.3 6.5 -1.4 -10.9 6.3 24 -2.8 6 -6.0 -2.3 19 -.3 .1 -.4 -1.9 58 -6.3 64 -5.5 3.3 Production expenses Current dollars 1982 dollars s 133.1 139.4 140.0 140.4 142.7 134.0 122.3 123.5 132.8 16.1 26.9 23.5 12.7 32.2 32.3 37.5 46.3 41.2 18.8 28.6 23.5 12.2 29.9 29.1 32.9 39.3 33.9 121.1 120.7 37.0 41.9 32.3 36.3 120.3 124.1 125.0 124.6 126.9 130.0 136.4 138.0 53.4 38.4 43.9 49.0 42.3 58.2 43.2 20.9 45.9 32.8 37.2 41.2 35.4 48.1 35.3 16.9 131.7 63.7 51.0 Income in current dollars divided by the GNP implicit price deflator. NOTE.—Data include net Commodity Credit Corporation loans and operator households. Sources: Department of Agriculture and Department of Commerce. CORPORATE PROFITS In the first quarter of 1989, according to revised estimates, corporate profits before tax fell $0.4 billion (annuj rate) and after-tax profits fell $1.9 billion. ' BULKDNS OF DOLLARS 360 BILLIONS OF DOL LARS 360 SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES 320 / \ , 280 ^ 200 u Af V 240 \ punf ITS BEFORE TA 1 S rv i f 240 200 *••**"" . '"~%>--J>F ~~""~\ .^^.r.r OFITS AFTER T AX N s-x - ^ " TAX LIABILITY S^S'"' *^ s 120 ..--*""" \.-, "N 160 ^s S \ 80 280 / 160 120 X J \ 320 80 , .,-4 \ 40 _ r *• 40 UNDI! TRIBUTED PRO =ITS i i ' 0 1 I 1 1982 1981 1 1 1 1983 1 | 1 1 1984 1985 1 1 1 1986 SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE I \ 0 1989 1988 1987 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Billions at dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Profits (before tax) with inventory valuation adjustment J Profits after tax Domestic industries Total 2 Total IV IV IV IV IV 1987: HI IV 1988: Manufacturing Wholesale and retail trade Inventory valuation adjustment Dividends Undistributed profits 54.7 63.6 66.9 71.5 79.0 83.3 88.2 95.5 104.5 97.6 81.8 39.6 58.9 67.0 44.6 41.6 47.4 59.4 -43.1 -24.2 -10.4 -10.9 -5.8 -1.7 8.3 -18.0 -23.8 21.0 16.5 11.8 18.1 13.0 22.8 31.8 30.1 30.5 138.6 157.3 119.4 148.5 190.3 168.6 180.9 192.1 215.1 77.1 88.5 58.0 70.1 88.8 79.7 79.4 96.8 114.1 21.6 32.5 34.6 38.9 51.2 44.1 46.1 42.8 39.7 237.1 226.5 169.6 207.6 240.0 224.3 236.4 276.7 306.6 84.8 81.1 63.1 77.2 93.9 96.4 106.6 133.8 142.7 152.3 145.4 106.5 130.4 146.1 127.8 129.8 142.9 163.9 .. 150.7 223.4 224.6 228.4 244.1 121.6 190.7 193.9 193.6 211.9 18.7 15.5 13.6 26.0 28.9 102.9 175.2 180.3 167.6 183.0 46.8 88.6 79.8 83.8 87.7 33.6 43.1 51.8 38.5 42.5 164.1 231.5 226.1 235.0 252.1 59.8 88.1 87.0 99.8 114.3 104.3 143.4 139.2 135.2 137.9 68.5 73.9 80.8 84.0 89.8 35.8 69.5 58.4 51.2 48.1 -13.4 -8.1 -1.6 -6.6 -8.1 . 269.9 263.7 234.6 222.2 29.5 28.8 205.1 193.4 107.0 101.7 44.1 43.0 289.4 281.9 140.0 136.2 149.5 145.7 97.0 99.3 52.4 46.4 -19.5 -18.2 266.8 278.5 284.6 301.3 236.6 243.1 243.8 259.2 27.6 30.0 32.7 31.8 209.0 213.1 211.1 227.4 110.6 114.5 111.4 120.1 43.9 37.0 36.6 41.3 286.2 305.9 313.9 320.6 136.9 143.2 144.8 146.1 149.4 162.7 169.1 174.5 101.3 103.1 105.7 108.0 48.1 59.6 63.4 66.4 -19.4 -27.4 -29.3 -19.2 286.1 243.8 31.7 212.2 112.9 34.3 320.2 147.6 172.6 111.1 61.5 -34.1 .. .. I n m 1989- I r 2 Total3 Total 159.6 173.8 131.2 166.6 203.3 191.4 212.8 222.3 245.7 IV 1 Financial Tax liability 194.0 202.3 159.2 196.7 234.2 222.6 244.7 258.7 282.8 1980 .. 1981 1982 .. 1983 1984 .... 1985 1986 ... 1987 1988 . 1982: 1983: 1984: 1985: 1986: Profits before tax Nonfinancial Period See p. 4 for profits with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments. Includes rest of the world, not shown separately. 3 Includes industries not shown separately. Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. GROSS PRIVATE DOMESTIC INVESTMENT According to revised estimates for the first quarter of 1989, nonresidential fixed investment rose $10.7 billion (annual rate) and residential investment rose $0.6 billion. There was a $40.4 billion increase in inventories, following an increase of $34.7 billion in the fourth quarter of 1988. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 900 900 SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES 800 800 GROSS PRIVATE DOMESTIC IWVF«;TMFKIT 700 / J 1 ~ ' - 700 - /( 600 \^/ / -_^ r>. ~- — f --"' •4ONRESIDENT AL XED INVESTMi:NT — ^-.--•""" 400 ^*' — 300 300 RESIDENT IAL FIXED INVES rMENT - — _.-— • 200 100 500 -*" / 400 600 _ \ 500 ^— 200 ." ~ - .-•-- r H/ikNGE IN BUSIr-4E« INVENTORIES ^ * > •«,^^^***^ ^ [ i i -100 1981 ^-\ 111 1982 / ^ , ' " -" I 1 ' 1983 ' 1 1 ^wi^*-* h-A J>*V»*•»«._ f ' ' f 1985 1984 / ' ' 1986 —y ''' 1987 SOURCE: DEPARTMEN OF COMMERCE 100 " - . . - 0 I I I 1988 1 1 I -ID 1989 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Change in business inventories Fixed investment Period Gross private domestic investment 1980 1981 .. 1982 1983.. 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988... 1982: IV 1983- IV 1984: IV 1985- IV 1986: IV 1987: III 437.0 515.5 447.3 502.3 664.8 643.1 665.9 712.9 766.5 1988: IV 763.4 758.1 772.5 772.0 1989- I r 788.9 rv I II III Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. 409.6 579.8 661.8 654.1 656.4 702.8 764.9 Nonresidential Total 445.3 491.5 471.8 509.4 597.1 631.8 650.4 673.7 718.1 469.5 548.8 616.8 646.8 658.4 688.3 692.9 698.1 714.4 722.8 737.2 748.5 Total 322.8 369.2 366.7 356.9 416.0 442.9 433.9 446.8 488.4 354.9 383.9 435.0 451.3 434.1 462.1 464.1 471.5 487.8 493.7 500.6 511.3 Structures 113.9 138.5 143.3 124.0 141.1 153.2 138.5 139.5 142.8 137.6 127.4 146.6 155.9 134.6 143.0 147.7 140.1 142.3 143.8 145.0 148.0 Producers' durable equipment 208.9 230.7 223.4 232.8 274.9 289.7 295.4 307.3 345.6 217.3 256.5 288.4 295.5 299.4 319.1 316.3 331.3 345.5 349.9 355.6 363.3 Residential 122.5 122.3 105.1 152.5 181.1 188.8 216.6 226.9 229.7 114.7 164.9 181.8 195.5 224.4 226.2 228.8 226.6 226.5 229.1 236.6 237.2 Total Nonfarm 67.7 11.3 15.5 39.2 48.4 2.4 18.3 23.1 .4 60.5 14.6 17.4 40.7 42.2 -59.9 31.0 45.0 7.2 -2.0 -51.1 21.3 41.3 23.7 3.0 14.5 72.0 17.8 72.8 65.3 43.7 49.7 34.7 49.4 33. 1 41.9 44.6 40.4 25.7 -8.3 24.0 -24.5 7.1 EXPENDITURES FOR NEW PLANT AND EQUIPMENT According to the Commerce Department April-May survey, business spending for new plant and equipment is expected to rise 9.9 percent in 1989, following a rise of 10.3 percent in 1988. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS (RATIO SCALE) BILLIONS OF DOLLARS (RATIO SCALE) 500 500 SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES 400 400 300 300 200 200 " V __ MANUFACTURING 100 ,100 80 80 60 60 40 40 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1987 1986 _!/ SURVEYED QUARTERLY _i/'SEE FOOTNOTE 4 BELOW SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE 1989 1988 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Addenda Industries surveyed quarterly Nonmanufacturing Manufacturing Period All industries Total Durable goods Nondurable goods Total i Transportation Mining Public utilities Commercial and other Total nonfarm business 2 Nonmanufacturing Manufacturing 112.33 126.54 120.68 116.20 138.82 153.48 142.69 145.90 165.70 179.35 Total 202.15 222.72 226.79 227.15 260.16 278.46 284.54 294.77 316.70 Surveyed quarterly 170.47 188.68 189.89 188.58 215.61 233.65 236.78 243.78 263.97 292.72 1980 1981 1982 . 1983 1984 1985 1986 . 1987 1988. 1989 4 282.80 315.22 310.58 304.78 354.44 387.13 379.47 389.67 429.67 472.08 -112.33 126.54 120.68 116.20 138.82 153.48 142.69 145.90 165.70 179.35 55.36 59.81 55.35 53.08 66.24 73.27 69.14 71.01 78.12 82.13 56.96 66.73 65.33 63.12 72.58 80.21 73.56 74.88 87.58 97.22 170.47 188.68 189.89 188.58 215.61 233.65 236.78 243.78 263.97 292.72 15.99 21.39 20.05 15.19 16.86 15.88 11.22 11.39 12.67 12.00 16.60 15.84 14.79 13.97 16.52 18.02 18.80 18.85 21.35 24.86 37.74 41.21 45.43 44.96 47.48 48.81 46.38 44.88 46.51 50.77 100.14 110.24 109.63 114.45 134.75 150.94 160.38 168.65 183.44 205.09 1987: in IV 394.54 406.82 148.20 152.21 71.96 72.28 76.24 79.92 246.34 254.61 11.81 12.32 19.19 19.34 45.29 46.38 170.05 176.56 148.20 152 21 412.02 426.94 436.01 443.71 158.60 161.69 168.91 173.61 75.70 76.87 79.48 80.42 82.90 84.82 89.43 93.18 253.43 265.25 267.10 270.11 12.59 13.26 12.47 12.35 20.43 20.72 22.17 22.10 44.61 45.43 46.70 49.27 175.79 185.83 185.76 186.38 158.60 161.69 16891 173.61 457.64 467.50 478.79 484.38 175.83 177.10 182.70 181.79 81.71 80.21 84.08 82.54 94.12 96.89 98.61 99.25 281.81 290.40 296.09 302.59 12.12 13.08 12.21 10.60 23.24 23.11 25.85 27.24 50.26 51.42 50.18 51.24 196.20 202.79 207.86 213.51 175.83 177 10 182.70 181 79 31.68 34.04 36.89 38.56 44.55 44.81 47.75 50.99 52.73 253.43 265.25 267 10 270.11 1989: I r II 44 UI4 Iy3 246.34 254 61 1988: I.. TJ III IV Surveyed annual- 281.81 290.40 296.09 302.59 rv 1 Excludes forestry, fisheries, and agricultural services; medical services; professional services; social services and membership organizations; and rea! estate, which, effective with the April-May 1984 survey, are no longer surveyed quarterly. See last column ("nnnmanufacturing surveyed annually") for data for these industries. 2 "All industries" plus the part of nonmanufacturing that is surveyed annually. 10 314.47 349.26 347.47 343.35 398.99 431.94 427.23 440.66 482.40 3 Consists of forestry, fisheries, and agricultural services; medical services; professional services; social services and membership organizations; and real estate. 4 Planned capita! expenditures as reported by business in April-May 1989, corrected for biases. Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census. EMPLOYMENT, UNEMPLOYMENT, AND WAGES In May, civilian employment rose 102,000 and unemployment fell 151,000. MILLKDNS OF PERSONS* 124 MILLIONS OF PERS(DNS* 124 SEASONALLY ADJUSTED r^^" 120 116 CIVILIAN LABOR FORCE - - t k' ' 112 /~" r 120 --•— ^-— 116 .--'— " 112 ^^-" 108 ^•-X r"~~n —' ^—| •+*-*'*~~ 108 ""\" 104 100 104 CIVILIAN EMPLOYMENT f1* ,~.~^- 100 96 96 - - 12 S- 8 ^-^ 12 1 • . —— 8 V.^- U MEMPLOYMEN T 4 0 1983 1 111111 1 11 1 in nl n in 1,11,1 1982 1981 4 1984 1985 1986 1987 16 YEARS OF AGE A "JD OVER SOURCE: DEPARTMEN OF LABOR 0 1989 1988 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Thousands of persons 16 years of age and over, except as noted; monthly data seasonally adjusted except as noted by NSA] Period Noninstitutional population including resident Armed Forces NSA Unemployment Civilian employment Employment including resident Armed Forces Nonagricultural Resident Armed Forces NSA Labor force including resident Armed Forces 1,604 1,645 100,907 102,042 101,194 102,510 106,702 108,856 111,303 114,177 116,677 106,940 108,670 110,204 111,550 113,544 115,461 117,834 119,865 121,669 99,303 100,397 99,526 100,834 105,005 107,150 109,597 112,440 114,968 3,364 3,368 3,401 3,383 3,321 3,179 3,163 3,208 3,169 95,938 97,030 96,125 97,450 101,685 103,971 106,434 109,232 111,800 4,064 4,499 5,852 5,997 5,512 5,334 5,345 5,122 4,965 7,637 8,273 10,678 10,717 8,539 6,800 6,523 6,624 6,797 Civilian labor force Agricultural Total Total Part time for economic reasons l 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986' 1987 1988 169,349 171,775 173,939 175,891 178,080 179,912 182,293 184,490 186,322 1,668 ,676 ,697 ,706 ,706 ,737 ,709 108,544 110,315 111,872 113,226 115,241 117,167 119,540 121,602 123,378 1988: May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 186,088 186,247 186,402 186,522 186,666 186,801 186,949 187,098 1,714 1,685 1,673 1,692 1,704 1,687 1,705 1,696 122,917 123,209 123,331 123,692 123,688 123,778 124,215 124,259 116,117 116,686 116,707 116,895 117,074 117,260 117,652 117,705 121,203 121,524 121,658 122,000 121,984 122,091 122,510 122,563 114,403 115,001 115,034 115,203 115,370 115,573 115,947 116,009 3,110 3,121 3,060 3,142 3,176 3,238 3,238 3,193 111,293 111,880 111,974 112,061 112,194 112,335 112,709 112,816 4,676 5,073 5,102 4,972 4,862 4,727 4,819 5,033 1989: Jan Feb Mar Apr May 187,340 187,461 187,581 187,708 187,854 1,696 1,684 1,684 1,684 1,673 125,124 124,865 124,948 125,343 125,283 118,407 118,537 118,820 118,797 118,888 123,428 123,181 123,264 123,659 123,610 116,711 116,853 117,136 117,113 117,215 3,300 3,223 3,206 3,104 3,112 113,411 113,630 113,930 114,009 114,102 4,837 4,697 4,709 4,930 4,609 1 Persons at work. Economic reasons include alack work, material shortages, inability to find full* time work, etc. 2 Civilian labor force (or employment) as percent of civilian noninstitutional population. Total 8,312 8,237 7,425 6,701 6,614 6,518 6,563 6,554 6,716 6,328 6,128 6,546 6,395 15 weeks and over Civilian Labor force participation rate (percent) 2 Employment/ population ratio (percent) 2 1,871 2,285 3,485 4,210 2,737 2,305 2,232 1,983 1,610 63.8 63.9 64.0 64.0 64.4 64.8 65.3 65.6 65.9 59.2 59.0 1,614 1,543 1,619 1,636 1,568 1,554 1,502 1,495 65.7 65.8 65.9 66.0 66.0 66.0 66.1 66.1 62.0 62.3 62.3 62.3 62.4 62.4 62.6 62.6 1,512 1,304 1,310 1,426 1,313 66.5 66.3 66.3 66.5 66.4 62.9 62.9 63.0 63.0 63.0 57.8 57.9 59.5 60.1 60.7 61.5 62.3 "Data beginning January 1986 not strictly comparable with earlier data because < estimation procedures. Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. 11 SELECTED UNEMPLOYMENT RATES In May, the overall unemployment rate and the civilian unemployment fell slightly, to 5.1 and 5.2 percent, respectively. PERCENT* (SEASONALLY ADJUSTED) PERCENT* (SEASONALLY ADJUSTED) 25 20 15 A vv A BLACK 10 10 AND OTHER ALL CIVILIAN WORKERS Vv-* WHITE 11 n H11111 1986 1985 iiiliini 1987 1988 1989 1985 •UNEMPLOYMENT AS PERCENT OF CIVILIAN IABOR FORCE IN GROUP SPECIFIED. SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Monthly data seasonally adjusted] Unemployment rate (percent of civilian labor force in group) Period Unemployment rate, all workers 1 By sex and age All civilian workers Men 20 years and over Women 20 years and over By selected groups By race Both sexes 16-19 years Black White and Black other Experienced wage and salary workers Married men, spouse present Women who maintain families Labor force time lost (percent) 2 Fulltime workers Parttime workers 6.9 8.8 9.4 10.5 10.4 11.0 10.9 9.3 9.3 9.1 8.4 7.6 8.6 8.1 7.9 7.1 6.3 7.9 19.6 23.2 22.4 18.9 18.6 18.3 16.9 15.3 6.3 6.7 8.6 8.4 6.5 6.2 6.0 5.3 4.7 13.1 14.2 17.3 17.8 14.4 13.7 13.1 11.6 10.4 14.3 15.6 18.9 19.5 15.9 15.1 14.5 13.0 11.7 6.9 7.3 9.3 9.2 7.1 6.8 6.6 5.8 5.2 4.2 4.3 6.5 6.5 4.6 6.9 6.1 5.4 7.5 7.2 7.0 6.2 5.5 8.8 8.9 6.6 6.2 6.1 5.4 4.8 6.4 6.8 8.3 8.1 6.8 6.6 6.2 5.4 4.9 5.6 5.4 5.4 5.6 5.4 5.3 5.4 5.3 4.9 4.6 4.5 4.9 4.6 4.6 4.8 4.7 4.9 4.9 5.0 4.8 4.8 4.7 4.7 4.7 15.6 14.1 15.1 15.4 15.5 15.0 14.1 14.8 4.7 4.6 4.7 4.9 4.7 4.6 4.6 4.6 10.9 10.3 10.1 10.0 9.5 9.8 10.0 10.0 12.1 11.7 11.5 11.4 10.9 11.2 11.2 11.6 5.3 5.1 5.1 5.3 5.1 5.0 5.1 5.0 3.3 3.2 3.1 3.4 3.1 3.1 3.3 3.1 8.4 Oct Nov Dec 5.5 5.3 5.4 5.5 5.3 5.3 5.3 5.3 7.9 8.5 7.5 8.1 7.9 7.7 8.2 5.2 5.0 5.0 5.3 5.1 5.0 5.0 5.1 7.7 7.7 8.0 7.4 7.4 7.4 7.1 7.0 6.4 6.3 6.4 6.4 6.3 6.1 6.2 6.3 Jan Feb Mar Apr May 5.4 5.1 4.9 5.2 5.1 5.4 5.1 5.0 5.3 5.2 4.6 4.5 4.2 4.6 4.3 4.7 4.5 4.6 4.1 4.8 16.4 14.8 13.7 14.4 15.2 4.6 4.3 4.2 4.6 4.4 10.6 10.6 9.8 9.6 9.5 12.0 11.9 10.9 10.8 11.0 5.2 4.8 4.7 5.1 4.9 3.1 3.1 2.9 3.2 2.9 8.0 8.0 7.9 7.6 8.3 5.0 4.8 4.8 5.0 4.8 7.9 7.3 6.2 7.2 6.9 6.2 5.9 5.8 6.0 5.9 1980 1981 1982 1983 7.0 7.5 9.5 9.5 7.4 7.1 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1988: May June.... July Aug Sept 1989: 7.1 7.6 9.7 9.6 5.9 6.3 17.8 1 Unemployed as percent of total labor force including resident Armed Forces. 2 Aggregate hours lost by the unemployed and persons on part time for economic reasons as percent of potentially available labor force hours. 12 4.3 4.4 3.9 3.3 9.2 10.4 11.7 12.2 10.3 10.4 9.8 9.2 8.1 Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. 7.3 9.6 9.5 7.2 6.8 6.6 5.8 5.2 8.5 SELECTED MEASURES OF UNEMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT INSURANCE PROGRAMS In May, the percentages of the unemployed who had been out of work for less than 5 weeks, for 5-14 weeks, and for 15-26 weeks rose, while the percentage for 27 weeks and over fell. Both the mean and the median duration of unemployment fell. PERCENT DISTRIBUTION PERCENT DISTRIBUTION* 70 70 REASON FOR UNEMPLOYMENT 60 60 - 50 JOB LOSERS 40 REENTRANTS 30 20 JOB LEAVERS - 10 NEW ENTRANTS 11 II 1 l l 1989 1985 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 •SEASONALLY ADJUSTED COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS SOURCE; DEPARTMENT OF LABOR [Monthly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted] Reason for unemployment: percent distribution Duration of unemployment Period Unemployment (thousands) Percent distribution Less than 5 weeks 5-14 weeks 15-26 weeks State programs Number of weeks 27 weeks and over Average (mean) Median Job losers Job leavers Reentrants New entrants Insured unemployment Initial claims Insured unemployment, all regular programs (unadjusted)1 Weekly average, thousands 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 7,637 8,273 10,678 10,717 8,539 8,312 8,237 7,425 6,701 1988- May July . •> Sept Oct Nov Dec 1989- Jan Feb Mar May 1 43.1 41.7 36.4 33.3 39.2 42.1 41.9 43.7 46.0 32.3 30.7 31.0 27.4 28.7 30.2 31.0 29.6 30.0 13.8 13.6 16.0 15.4 12.9 12.3 12.7 12.7 12.0 10.7 14.0 16.6 23.9 19.1 15.4 14.4 14.0 12.1 11.9 13.7 15.6 20.0 18.2 15.6 15.0 14.5 13.5 6.5 6.9 8.7 10.1 7.9 6.8 6.9 6.5 5.9 51.7 51.6 58.7 58.4 51.8 49.8 48.9 48.0 46.1 11.7 11.2 7.9 7.7 9.6 10.6 12.3 13.0 14.7 25.2 25.4 22.3 22.5 25.6 27.1 26.2 26.6 27.0 11.4 11.9 11.1 11.3 13.0 12.5 12.5 12.4 12.2 3,350 3,047 4,061 3,396 2,476 2,611 2,650 2,332 2,056 488 460 583 438 377 396 378 328 306 6,800 6,523 6,624 6,797 6,614 6,518 6,563 6,554 45.5 47.3 44.9 46.8 47.4 47.4 47.6 46.2 30.6 29.2 30.7 29.0 28.8 28.5 29.5 31.1 11.7 11.4 12.4 12.3 11.8 12.2 12.0 11.5 12.2 12.1 11.9 11.9 12.1 11.9 10.9 11.2 13.8 13.2 13.5 13.5 13.5 13.4 12.6 12.8 5.9 5.9 6.2 5.9 5.7 5.7 5.6 5.8 47.4 46.7 46.1 46.2 46.7 45.9 46.2 46.5 13.9 14.5 13.8 14.6 14.9 15.3 14.7 15.1 26.7 26.6 28.1 27.3 26.8 27.2 26.9 26.2 12.0 12.2 11.9 11.9 11.5 11.6 12.2 12.1 2,051 2,050 2,082 2,069 2,025 1,972 1,989 2,032 311 304 327 305 293 296 301 309 6,716 6,328 6,128 6,546 6,395 47.0 50.6 49.4 47.2 47.7 30.7 29.1 29.4 31.1 31.7 11.2 10.4 10.5 10.5 11.0 11.1 10.0 10.7 11.3 9.6 12.7 12.1 12.4 12.7 11.8 5.7 5.3 5.4 5.4 5.3 46.4 45,2 46.0 45.7 42.7 14.7 15.5 14.4 15.0 17.5 27.3 27.3 28.1 29.0 29.1 11.6 12.0 11.6 10.3 10.7 2,061 2,105 2,143 2,105 2,063 293 309 323 300 317 Includes State (50 States, District of Columbia, Puerto Rico, and Virgin Islands), ex-servicemen (UCX), Federal (UCFE), and railroad (RR) programs. Also includes Federal and State extended benefit programs. Does not include Federal supplemental compensation program. 3,837 3,410 4,594 3,775 2,561 2,693 2,746 2,401 2,125 1,949 r l,881 r 2,052 ' 1,914 ' 1,734 ' 1,677 ' 1,857 T 2,205 2,685 ' 2,695 2,567 2,221 Source: Department of Labor {Bureau of Labor Statistics and Employment and Training Administration). 13 NONAGRICULTURAL EMPLOYMENT Total nonagricultural employment as measured by the payroll survey rose 101,000 in May. MILLIONS OF PERSONS* (Series revised.) MILLIONS OF PERSONS* (ENLARGED SCALE) no ^.f'~ 26 SERVICES 100 _ — r-^O .--'" - ALL NONAGRICULTURAL ESTABLISHMENTS — 24 90 ~ — ^.,---""' 22 80 — — — — 20 RETAIL TRADE 70 18 . \J^r^ — SERV 'ICE-PRODUC:ING INDUSTRIES - -GOVERNMENT — — *•" ^-—' 60 mlfiimi - — Illlllllllimillllllll Illllllllll ' * MANlJFACTURtNC 20 50 •— | \ ^ 1 ^ 40 - - 18 30 in Tr 1 1 1 ll 1 11 1988 1987 \ ' 1985 1 1987 1988 1989 COUNCIL OF EC 3NOMIC ADVISERS [Thousands oi wage and salary workers; l seasonally adjustf Service-producing industries Goods-producing industries Manufacturing Total 2 n V 1986 SEASONALLY ADJ JSTEO DEPARTM NT OF LABOR Period 1 11 Ul 1 1 1 1 , , I , mnlmii 11 \\ 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 M 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 I 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 til I 1989 s OURCE: Total nonagricultural employment r ONSTRUCTIC 4 M 1, 20 41, ml, INI M mlii M] , , , , 1 1 1 , , , 1 , , , 1 1 , , , i i n i m , |J 1986 • , , , , ii n , 1I 1 1 M ) 1 1 1 1 11 1 1 1 1 h 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 II III 1 6 \ 1985 1 11 1 ~ GOC>DS-PRODUC ING INDUSTRIES Construction Total Durable goods Nondurable goods Total Transportation and public utilities Wholesale trade Retail trade Government Finance, insurance, and real estate Services Total Federal 90,406 91,156 89,566 90,200 94,496 97,519 99,525 102,200 105,584 25,658 25,497 23,813 23,334 24,727 24,859 24,558 24,708 25,249 4,346 4,188 3,905 3,948 4,383 4,673 4,816 4,967 5,125 20,285 20,170 18,781 18,434 19,378 19,260 18,965 19,024 19,403 12,187 12,109 11,039 10,732 11,505 11,490 11,230 11,194 11,437 8,098 8,061 7,741 7,702 7,873 7,770 7,734 7,830 7,967 64,748 65,659 65,753 66,866 69,769 72,660 74,967 77,492 80,335 5,146 5,165 5,082 4,954 5,159 5,238 5,255 5,372 5,548 5,275 5,358 5,278 5,268 5,555 5,717 5,753 5,844 6,029 15,035 15,189 15,179 15,613 16,545 17,356 17,930 18,483 19,110 5,160 5,298 5,341 5,468 5,689 5,955 6,283 6,547 6,676 17,890 18,619 19,036 19,694 20,797 22,000 23,053 24,236 25,600 16,241 16,031 15,837 15,869 16,024 16,394 16,693 17,010 17,372 2,866 2,772 2,739 2,774 2,807 2,875 2,899 2,943 2,971 1988: May r.. 105,091 June ''. 105,561 July r.. 105,768 Aug ".. 105,954 Sept r.. 106,207 Oct r... 106,475 Nov r.. 106,824 Dec r .. 107,097 25,179 25,265 25,323 25,303 25,313 25,384 25,460 25,513 5,100 5,139 5,150 5,153 5,163 5,162 5,191 5,213 19,354 19,400 19,448 19,425 19,431 19,505 19,557 19,589 11,399 11,431 11,475 11,462 11,464 11,509 11,545 11,565 7,955 7,969 7,973 7,963 7,967 7,996 8,012 8,024 79,912 80,296 80,445 80,651 80,894 81,091 81,364 81,584 5,522 5,542 5,557 5,572 5,581 5,596 5,616 5,634 6,001 6,027 6,038 6,051 6,071 6,086 6,104 6,125 19,036 19,096 19,139 19,182 19,188 19,229 19,282 19,328 6,654 6,672 6,678 6,686 6,695 6,710 6,726 6,744 25,364 25,597 25,683 25,784 25,888 25,986 26,111 26,230 17,335 17,362 17,350 17,376 17,471 17,484 17,525 17,523 2,962 2,956 2,958 2,967 2,985 2,986 2,983 2,981 Jan r... 107,442 Feb r... 107,711 Mar ' .. 107,888 Apr r... 108,094 May '.. 108,195 25,626 25,629 26,646 25,664 25,631 5,267 5,270 5,252 5,275 5,261 19,648 19,648 19,680 19,669 19,651 11,605 11,594 11,604 11,599 11,586 8,043 8,054 8,076 8,070 8,065 81,816 82,082 82,242 82,430 82,564 5,654 5,667 5,666 5,682 5,694 6,146 6,171 6,197 6,207 6,209 19,407 19,460 19,488 19,491 19,508 6,746 6,763 6,774 6,781 6,788 26,318 26,434 26,520 26,647 26,711 17,545 17,587 17,597 17,622 17,654 2,978 2,982 2,982 2,975 2,964 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989: 1 Includes all full- and part-time wage and salary workers in nonagricultura! establishments who received pay for any part of the pay period which includes the 12th of the month. Excludes proprietors, self-employed persons, domestic servants, and personnel of the Armed Forces. Total derived from this table not comparable with estimates of nonagricultural employment of the civilian labor force, shown on p. 11, which include proprietors, self-employed persons, and domestic servants; which count persons as employed when they are not at work because of industrial disputes, bad weather, etc., even if they are not paid for the time off; and which are based on a sample of the 14 working-age population, whereas the estimates in this table are based on reports from employing establishments. 2 Includes mining, not shown separately. Note.—Seasonally adjusted data revised beginning January 1984; unadjusted revised beginning April 1987. Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. AVERAGE WEEKLY HOURS, HOURLY EARNINGS, AND WEEKLY EARNINGS PRIVATE NONAGRICULTURAIi INDUSTRIES [For production or nonsupervisory workers; monthly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted] Average weekly hours Average gross weekly earnings Average gross hourly earnings Period Overtime Manufacturing Retail trade Percent change from a year ear ier, total private nonagricultural 3 Current dollars 1977 dollars s Manufacturing Construction $367.78 $147.38 158.03 399.26 163.85 426.82 171.05 442.97 174.33 458.51 174.64 464.46 176.08 466.75 ' 480.44 ' 178.70 183.62 493.08 6.9 8.5 4.7 5.0 4.3 2.1 1.9 2.5 3.2 -5.8 15 -1.2 1.9 .9 -1.4 .4 -1.0 9 Current dollars 1977 dollars T July . Aug T Sept ' Oct ' Novr Dec ' Jan r Feb r Mar r May " 2.8 2.8 2.3 3.0 3.4 3.3 3.4 3.7 3.9 $6.66 7.25 7.68 8.02 8.32 8.57 8.76 8.98 9.29 $7.27 7.99 8.49 8.83 9.19 9.54 9.73 9.91 10.18 $235.10 255.20 267.26 280.70 292.86 299.09 304.85 312.50 322.36 $172.74 170.13 168.09 171.26 172.78 170.42 171.07 169.28 167.81 $288.62 318.00 330.26 354.08 374.03 386.37 396.01 406.31 418.40 41.1 41.1 41.1 41.0 41.1 41.2 41.2 41.0 3.9 3.9 3.9 3.9 3.9 4.0 3.9 3.9 9.26 9.27 9.31 9.32 9.37 9.43 9.42 9.45 10.14 10.18 10.18 10.21 10.25 10.29 10.30 10.31 321.32 321.67 323.99 322.47 325.14 328.16 326.87 327.92 168.23 167.89 168.39 166.82 167.68 168.55 167.28 167.39 416.75 418.40 418.40 418.61 421.28 423.95 424.36 422.71 487.84 494.16 493.29 492.53 494.05 499.66 503.04 497.07 182.12 183.33 185.18 183.57 185.08 186.30 185.60 187.11 3.1 3.3 4.1 2.8 4.2 4.1 3.3 3.9 7 -.5 .1 -1.2 -.0 34.8 34.6 34.7 34.9 34.6 May r. 39.7 39.8 38.9 40.1 40.7 40.5 40.7 41.0 41.1 34.7 34.7 34.8 34.6 34.7 34.8 34.7 34.7 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 . 1988 r 1989: Total Total private nonagricultural * 35.3 35.2 34.8 35.0 35.2 34.9 34.8 34.8 34.7 1980 1981 1988: Total private nonflgricultural l Current dollars Total private nonagricultural ' Manufacturing 41.1 41.1 41.0 41.2 41.0 3.9 3.9 4.0 4.0 3.8 9.49 9.52 9.54 9.60 9.61 10.33 10.37 10.40 10.40 10.41 330.25 329.39 331.04 335.04 332.51 167.55 166.44 166.44 167.35 165.18 424.56 426.21 426.40 428.48 426.81 496.89 498.39 501.23 505.21 496.03 187.40 186.41 186.98 189.15 188.14 4.2 3.5 4.1 4.4 3.4 -.3 -1.2 8 -.8 19 1 Also includes other private industry groups shown on p. 14. 2 Current dollar earnings divided by the consumer price index for urban wage earners and clerical workers (on a 1977=100 base). 3 Based on seasonally unadjusted data. 1 -.9 5 NOTE.—Seasonally adjusted data revised beginning January 1984; unadjust April 1987. Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. EMPLOYMENT COST INDEX—PRIVATE INDUSTRY [Not seasonally adjusted] Index (June 1981 = 100) Percent change from 12 months earlier 3 months earlier Period 1980: 1981: 1982: 1983: 1984: 1985: 1986: 1987: 1988: 1986: Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Mar June Sept Dec 1987: Mar.... June Sent . . Dec 1988- Mar June Sept Dec 1989: Mar 1 Total compensation Wages and salaries 94.7 104.0 110.7 117.0 122.7 127.5 131.6 136.0 142.6 128.9 129.0 130.8 131.6 132.9 133.8 135.1 136.0 138.1 139.8 141.2 142.6 144.4 95.4 103.8 110.3 115.8 120.6 125.6 129.5 133.8 139.3 126.8 129.9 128.8 129.5 130.8 131.7 133.0 133.8 135.1 136.6 137.9 139.3 140.8 Benefits ' 93.0 104.3 111.7 120.0 127.9 132.4 136.9 141.7 151.3 134.2 134.8 136.1 136.9 138.1 139.3 140.3 141.7 146.1 148.2 149.7 151.3 154.0 Employer costs for employee benefits. NOTE.—The employment cost index is a measure of the change in the cost of labor, free from the influence of employment shifts among occupations and industries. Total compensation Wages and salaries Benefits l Total compensation Wages and salaries 2.2 2.3 1.5 1.3 1.4 .5 .6 1.0 1.1 9.8 9.8 6.4 5.7 4.9 3.9 3.2 3.3 4.9 9.0 8.8 6.3 5.0 4.1 4.1 3.1 3.3 4.1 1.4 .4 1.0 .6 .9 .9 .7 1.0 3.8 3.8 3.2 3.2 3.1 3.0 3.3 3.3 3.9 3.7 3.1 3.1 3.2 3.0 3.3 3.3 1.5 1.2 1.0 1.0 2.0 1.8 1.2 1.1 1.2 .6 .5 .6 1.0 1.0 .9 .7 .5 1.0 .7 1.0 .6 1.0 1.1 1.0 1.0 3.1 1.4 1.0 1.1 3.9 4.5 4.5 4.9 3.3 3.7 3.7 4.1 1.3 1.1 1.8 4.6 4.2 2.1 2.0 1.3 1.2 1.3 .6 .6 .7 1.0 1.1 .8 .7 .6 1.0 .7 1.0 .7 Benefits ' 11.8 12.2 7.1 7.4 6.6 3.5 3.4 3.5 6.8 3.2 3.5 3.3 3.4 2.9 3.3 3.1 3.5 5.8 6.4 6.7 6.8 5.4 Data exclude farm and household workers. Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. 15 PRODUCTIVITY AND RELATED DATA, BUSINESS SECTOR Output per hour of all persons Period Business sector Nonfarm business sector Output ' Business sector Compensation per hour 3 Hours of all persons 2 Nonfarm business sector Business sector Nonfarm business sector Business sector Nonfarm business sector Real compensation per hour 4 Business sector Nonfarm business sector Unit labor costs Implicit price deflator 5 Business sector Nonfarm business sector Business sector Nonfarm business sector 1977 = 100; quarterly data seasonally adjusted 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 99.3 100.7 100.3 103.0 105.5 98.8 99.8 99.2 102.5 104.6 106.7 108.9 105.5 109.9 119.2 106.7 108.5 104.9 110.1 119.2 107.5 108.2 105.2 106.8 112.9 108.0 108.7 105.7 107.5 114.0 131.5 143.7 154.9 161.4 167.9 131.3 143.6 154.8 161.5 167.8 96.7 95.8 97.3 98.2 97.9 96.6 95.8 97.2 98.3 97.9 132.5 142.7 154.5 156.7 159.1 132.9 144.0 156.0 157.6 160.4 127.6 139.8 148.1 153.0 158.2 127.8 140.3 149.2 154.3 159.0 1985 1986 1987 1988 107.7 110.1 111.0 112.2 106.1 108.2 109.0 110.6 124.2 128.6 133.3 139.4 123.9 128.2 133.0 139.9 115.3 116.8 120.1 124.3 116.8 118.5 122.1 126.6 175.5 183.1 190.4 199.4 174.9 182.3 189.4 198.0 98.8 101.2 101.5 102.1 98.5 100.8 101.0 101.4 162.9 166.3 171.5 177.8 164.9 168.6 173.8 179.1 162.2 165.8 170.5 175.7 163.8 167.8 172.5 177.3 1982: 1983: 1984: 1985: IV IV IV IV 101.0 103.8 105.9 108.5 99.7 103.3 104.9 106.5 105.0 113.6 120.8 125.9 104.2 114.1 120.7 125.5 103.9 109.4 114.0 116.1 104.5 110.4 115.1 117.9 158.3 163.6 170.3 178.8 158.2 163.4 170.2 177.9 98.0 98.1 98.0 99.4 97.9 97.9 98.0 98.9 156.8 157.6 160.7 164.8 158.7 158.2 162.3 167.1 150.2 155.2 159.8 163.7 151.4 156.2 161.0 165.5 1986: HE IV 110.0 109.8 108.0 107.8 128.5 129.3 128.1 128.8 116.8 117.8 118.6 119.5 184.0 186.2 183.1 185.4 101.6 102.1 101.2 101.7 167.3 169.6 169.5 172.1 167.0 167.5 169.0 169.5 109.9 110.6 111.7 111.8 107.8 108.6 109.6 109.9 130.5 132.2 134.3 136.2 130.1 131.9 134.1 136.0 118.8 119.5 120.3 121.8 120.7 121.5 122.3 123.8 187.3 189.0 191.1 194.0 186.4 187.9 190.0 192.9 101.4 101.1 101.3 101.9 100.9 100.5 100.7 101.4 170.5 170.8 171.1 173.5 172.9 173.0 173.3 175.6 168.7 170.1 171.2 171.9 170.9 171.9 173.2 174.0 110.8 110.1 110.7 110.9 138.0 138.8 139.8 140.9 137.9 139.2 140.5 142.1 122.3 124.1 124.5 125.8 124.4 126.4 126.9 128.1 195.8 198.1 201.1 IV 112.8 111.8 112.3 112.0 203.2 194.6 196.6 199.4 201.9 101.9 102.0 102.4 102.3 101.3 101.3 101.5 101.7 173.5 177.1 179.0 181.4 175.7 178.6 180.2 182.0 172.3 174.7 176.8 179.0 174.2 176.2 178.0 180.6 I" 112.5 110.6 142.7 142.9 126.8 129.2 205.9 204.6 102.3 101.7 183.0 185.0 180.5 182.0 1987: I n m IV 1988: I n m 1989: Percent change; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 I I 03 1.4 -.4 2.7 2.5 -0.4 1.0 -.6 3.3 2.1 2.1 31 4.2 8.4 -1.2 1.7 -3.3 5.0 8.3 -0.8 .7 28 1.5 5.7 07 .7 -2.7 1.6 6.0 10.5 9.2 7.8 4.2 4.1 10.5 9.4 7.8 4.3 3.9 -2.7 -1.0 1.6 .9 2 -2.7 -.8 1.5 1.1 4 10.9 7.7 8.3 1.4 1.5 11.0 8.3 8.4 1.0 1.8 9.0 9.6 5.9 3.3 3.3 9.7 9.7 6.3 3.5 3.0 2.1 2.2 .8 1.1 1.4 2.0 .8 1.5 4.2 3.5 3.6 4.6 3.9 3.5 3.8 5.2 2.1 1.3 2.8 3.5 2.5 1.5 3.0 3.7 4.5 4.3 4.0 4.8 4.2 4.2 3.8 4.6 .9 2.4 .3 .6 .6 2.3 .2 .4 2.4 2.1 3.1 3.7 2.8 2.2 3.1 3.1 2.5 2.3 2.8 3.1 3.0 2.4 2.8 2.8 1985.... 1986 1987 1988 1982: 1983: 1984: 1985: IV IV IV IV 3.0 3.1 1.7 .7 2.4 1.4 1.2 .2 -.5 10.4 3.5 3.6 -1.2 9.8 3.1 3.5 -3.4 7.1 1.8 2.9 -3.5 8.2 1.9 3.4 4.5 5.5 3.8 5.4 5.0 4.3 3.9 5.1 3.2 1.4 .3 1.2 3.8 .2 .4 .9 1.5 2.3 2.1 4.7 2.6 2.8 2.7 4.9 2.4 4.8 2.7 2.6 3.0 3.1 3.3 2.1 1986: m IV -1.4 -.8 -1.5 -.9 .9 2.5 .8 2.4 2.3 3.4 2.4 3.3 4.4 4.8 4.3 5.1 2.0 2.0 1.9 2.2 5.8 5.7 5.9 6.1 5.0 1.1 5.1 1.2 .3 2.7 3.9 .6 .0 3.2 3.7 .9 3.7 5.3 6.6 5.7 4.0 5.7 6.8 5.9 3.4 2.5 2.6 5.1 4.0 2.5 2.9 4.9 2.5 3.6 4.6 6.2 2.1 3.4 4.5 6.4 -2.8 -1.2 .9 2.4 -3.2 -1.4 .7 2.6 2.2 .8 .7 5.6 2.1 .2 .7 5.4 3.0 3.2 2.8 1.4 3.3 2.3 3.1 1.8 3.5 -3.4 1.7 -1.0 3.4 -2.4 2.0 1.0 5.5 2.4 2.8 3.3 5.6 4.0 3.5 4.8 1.9 6.0 1.1 4.3 2.1 6.6 1.5 3.7 3.7 4.8 6.2 4.3 3.5 4.2 5.7 5.2 .0 .3 1.4 -.2 — .1 -.3 .9 .7 .2 8.5 4.4 5.4 .1 6.8 3.7 4.1 1.0 5.8 4.7 5.1 .6 4.7 4.1 6.0 1.7 -1.1 5.1 2.2 3.4 3.4 5.4 5.4 .0 .0 3.6 6.6 3.6 3.2 1987: I n m IV 1988: I n m IV 1989: I".... 1 Output refers to grogs domestic product originating in the sector in 1982 dollars. 2 Hours of all persons engaged in the sector, including hours of proprietors and unpaid family workers. Estimates based primarily on establishment data. 3 Wages and salaries of employees plus employers' contributions for social insurance and private benefit plans. Also includes an estimate of wages, salaries, and supplemental payments for the selfemployed. * Hourly compensation divided by the consumer price index for all urban consumers. 16 8 Current dollar gross domestic product divided by constant dollar gross domestic product. * Data do not reflect GNP revisions of June 22, 1989. NOTE.—Data relate to all persons engaged in the sector. Percent changes are from preceding period and are based on original data; they therefore may differ slightly from percent changes based on indexes shown here. Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. PRODUCTION AND BUSINESS ACTIVITY INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION AND CAPACITY UTILIZATION Industrial production was unchanged in May and capacity utilization fell slightly. INDEX, 1977=100* (RATIO SCALE) INDEX, 1977=100* (RATIO SCALE) 160 240 FINAL PRODUCTS TOTAL INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION _—- ,--v 200 ^^ 180 120 Illllllllll 100 |Hll|l|||| Illllllllll |=S= ^ 100 Illllllllll Illllllllll Illllllllll 140 CONSUMER GOODS NONDURABLE 120 iimliim Illiil""! Illllllllll 100 /*"• UTI LITIES Illllllllll hd 1985 1986 Illllllllll 80 "V -~ __ ^-^-| - 70 Illllllllil 1985 1989 1988 M M M M ! S M M M - ^X^—^ \^ MINING Illllllllll Illllllllll Illllllllll 1987 ~ 90 *.,''"" 100 Illllllllll CAPACITY UTILIZATION RATE (TOTAL INDUSTRY) 120 <* Illllllllll Illllllim PERCENT* UTILITIES AND MINING PRODUCTION f _„—••••"" -'V" 120 t^^zZ?^*^' ^ ^ 140 _»*x.— «f ""•^.. - \^^ MANUFACTURING PRODUCTION 100 BUSINESS E<3UIPMENT Illllllllll 160 ^"^ "^--V 1 ..—r ^..--'' 160 140 '— DURABLE DFFFNSF AMD SPACE EQUIPMEN1 220 Illllllllll Illllllllll Illllllllll Illllllllll 1986 1987 1988 1989 •SEASONALLY ADJUSTED SOURCE: BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Monthly data seasonally adjusted] Period Index, 1977 = 100 Manufacturing Percent change from year earlier Mining Total Durable Utilities Nondurable Total industry Manufacturing 100.0 108.6 111.0 103.1 109.2 121.4 123.7 125.1 129.8 137.2 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1988: May June July . J Aug Sept Oct No-v Dec 1989- Jan Feb r Mar r Apr T May" 1 Capacity utilization rate, percent * Industry production indexes, 1977 = 100 Total industrial production Output as percent of capacity. -1.9 2.2 -7.1 5.9 11.2 1.9 1.1 3.8 5.7 84.21 108.2 110.5 102.2 110.2 123.4 126.4 129.1 134.7 142.7 49.10 109.1 111.1 99.9 107.7 124.2 127.6 128.4 133.1 141.9 35.11 107.0 109.7 105.5 113.7 122.3 124.6 130.1 136.8 143.9 9.83 112.4 117.5 109.3 102.9 111.1 108.9 100.4 100.7 103.4 5.96 107.3 107.1 104.8 105.2 110.7 111.1 108.5 110.3 114.3 80.9 79.9 72.1 74.6 81.0 80.4 79.4 80.7 83.3 79.3 78.2 70.3 73.9 80.5 80.1 79.7 81.1 83.5 136.1 136.5 138.0 138.5 138.6 139.4 139.9 140.4 6.2 5.7 5.7 5.5 5.7 5.2 5.1 4.9 141.8 142.1 143.6 144.0 144.4 145.3 145.8 146.3 141.5 141.7 142.9 143.2 143.8 144.6 145.2 145.7 142.1 142.6 144.6 145.1 145.3 146.3 146.7 147.1 102.6 103.0 104.3 103.8 103.7 103.1 104.7 104.9 111.6 113.2 114.4 117.8 113.0 113.9 113.7 115.4 82.9 83.0 83.7 83.8 83.7 84.0 84.1 84.3 83.3 83.3 84.0 84.0 84.0 84.3 84.4 84.4 140.8 140.5 140.6 141.4 141.4 4.8 4.5 4.4 4.5 3.9 147.2 146.8 146.7 147.7 147.6 146.2 145.9 145.6 146.6 146.4 148.5 148.1 148.4 149.3 149.3 103.0 100.9 101.9 102.9 104.1 114.0 116.5 116.9 116.9 116.4 84.3 83.9 83.8 84.1 83.8 84.7 84.3 84.0 84.3 84.0 Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. 17 INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION—MAJOR MARKET GROUPS AND SELECTED MANUFACTURES [1977=100; monthly data seasonally adjusted] Materials Products Intermediate products Final products Consumer goods Equipment Period Total Total Durable goods Nondurable goods Total1 Business 1977 proportion 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 44.77 112.2 115.2 109.5 114.7 127.3 131.0 132.5 136.8 144.3 25.52 102.7 104.1 101.4 109.3 118.0 119.8 124.0 127.8 133.9 6.89 88.4 89.7 82.9 98.5 112.2 112.5 115.6 120.2 125.3 18.63 108.1 109.3 108.3 113.3 120.1 122.5 127.1 130.6 137.1 19.25 124.7 129.9 120.2 121.7 139.6 145.8 143.6 148.9 158.2 14.34 125.1 127.6 113.6 115.4 134.2 140.2 139.5 144.5 157.6 1988: 143.5 144.0 145.0 145.8 145.8 146.4 146.8 147.7 132.7 133.0 134.2 135.0 134.8 136.4 136.8 138.2 125.6 125.3 125.3 125.7 126.3 129.3 129.2 131.9 135.4 135.8 137.5 138.5 138.0 139.0 139.7 140.5 157.7 158.5 159.4 160.1 160.4 159.7 159.9 160.4 148.2 148.6 148.8 149.7 149.4 138.5 138.7 138.3 139.1 138.5 131.5 131.6 130.1 131.8 130.8 141.1 141.4 141.3 141.8 141.3 161.1 161.6 162.6 163.8 163.9 156.9 158.1 159.3 160.2 160.8 160.2 161.2 162.6 163.8 165.0 166.2 167.4 167.8 May June July Aue Sept 1989: Oct. Nov Dec Jan Feb r Mar r Apr T May >>. 1 Defense and space equipment 3.67 115.4 119.8 133.0 143.1 156.4 171.4 182.0 188.9 185.8 185.5 184.6 184.9 184.9 184.5 184.0 182.2 180.5 180.0 179.3 178.2 178:6 178.0 Total Construction supplies Business supplies Total Energy 12.94 106.9 107.3 101.7 111.2 124.7 129.3 136.2 143.4 151.5 5.95 100.6 98.6 88.3 100.6 114.0 119.2 126.4 131.5 138.6 6.99 112.3 114.7 113.1 120.3 133.8 137.9 144.6 153.5 162.5 42.28 105.3 107.7 96.7 102.8 114.2 114.3 113.8 118.2 125.2 11.69 105.5 104.7 101.2 98.4 103.9 103.3 99.7 99.8 101.5 150.4 150.0 151.6 152.3 152.9 154.0 154.2 155.0 156.6 155.1 155.9 155.9 155.7 138.8 137.6 138.4 138.1 138.4 140.0 140.7 141.4 160.3 160.6 162.8 164.4 165.2 165.9 165.7 166.7 123.9 124.5 126.4 126.5 126.5 127.5 128.3 128.3 99.5 101.3 102.7 103.2 101.5 101.3 102.3 102.6 142.3 139.5 138.9 138.5 137.4 168.8 168.4 170.3 170.8 128.1 127.4 127.3 128.3 128.5 100.5 100.5 101.3 102.5 103.1 Includes oil and gas well drilling and manufactured homes, not shown separately. [1977 = 100; monthly data seasonally adjusted] Nondurable manufactures Durable manufactures Transportation equipment Primary metals Total 1977 proportion 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1988: May June July Auff Sept Oct. Nov Dec 1989: Jan. Feb r. Mar r Apr r May p 5.33 90.4 95.0 65.8 73.0 82.3 80.4 75.1 81.3 89.2 89.2 87.5 91.5 90.8 93.1 94.2 92.7 90.0 93.2 91.1 88.4 89.4 894 Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. 18 Lumber and products Apparel products Printing and publishing Chemicals and products Foods 5.25 71.1 71.6 66.8 85.8 104.4 111.9 111.5 111.8 117.2 3.30 92.9 90.1 82.8 100.2 109.1 114.3 124.1 130.3 137.3 2. 79 97.3 96.1 87.3 95.3 102.7 100.4 103.1 107.4 109.1 4.54 115.1 118.6 120.2 129.8 146.5 151.4 160.9 172.1 184.2 8.05 106.4 112.6 103.8 114.0 121.6 126.4 132.0 140.2 151.9 7.96 111.4 113.7 114.9 120.4 126.9 130.5 134.4 137.8 142.7 133.1 132.8 131.9 131.8 132.7 134.8 135.2 136.8 119.6 119.1 116.6 117.5 118.5 121.7 122.9 125.5 139.8 136.4 136.6 133.8 133.5 137.5 139.4 143.0 108.6 109.3 109.4 108.9 109.9 109.5 110.1 108.8 180.7 182.3 184.9 186.7 188.0 188.1 188.5 188.0 149.1 150.5 153.4 154.8 155.3 156.7 157.5 158.1 141.0 141.3 143.3 143.3 143.2 144.0 145.7 145.8 136.7 136.4 134.7 136.7 135.3 124.9 123.4 120.4 122.7 120.1 139.9 132.8 133.1 132.5 110.2 110.2 109.6 193.0 194.6 197.4 199.3 200.0 159.0 158.5 159.1 159.2 146.6 146.3 145.5 146.3 Iron and steel Fabricated metal products Nonelectrical machinery Electrical machinery 3.49 86.3 92.5 57.5 66.1 73.4 70.4 63.4 70.6 78.1 6.46 101.8 101.6 86.6 89.1 102.6 107.1 108.0 111.0 120.9 9.54 123.3 129.8 115.6 118.3 141.8 146.2 145.0 152.7 170.8 7.15 130.3 134.1 128.4 143.8 170.5 168.3 165.7 172.3 180.1 9.13 96.9 95.1 87.6 99.2 112.2 122.8 127.5 129.2 132.1 78.6 74.2 80.2 78.9 81.4 83.1 80.8 77.6 119.8 120.4 121.7 122.1 122.5 122.6 124.6 125.1 170.3 171.2 173.1 174.1 174.8 173.8 175.4 177.8 179.1 179.5 181.5 182.2 181.8 183.0 182.2 180.9 82.2 79.1 75.9 77.4 124.5 124.5 124.0 123.6 124.0 178.7 180.8 182.3 183.6 184.4 180.9 181.7 181.4 182.9 182.3 Period Total Motor vehicles and parts NEW CONSTRUCTION [Monthly data seasonally adjusted] Construction contracts 3 Private Period Total new construction expenditures Federal, State, and local Residential Total New: housing units Total ' Commercial and industrial 2 Other Total value index (1982=100) Commercial and industrial floor space (millions of square feet) Billions of dollars 1979 252.4 1980 1981 1982 .. 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 251.7 260.2 246.6 281.3 328.6 355:7 386.1 398.9 403.1 200.7 193.3 203.6 192.9 227.5 271.0 291.7 314.7 323.8 325.1 89.3 69.6 69.4 57.0 94.6 113.8 114.7 133.2 139.9 139.2 116.4 100.4 99.2 84.7 125.5 153.8 158.5 187.1 194.8 195.3 42.0 46.7 55.0 58.7 53.8 68.6 82.7 78.0 76.5 76.4 42.3 46.2 49.4 49.5 48.1 48.5 50.5 49.5 52.5 53.4 51.7 58.5 56.5 53.7 53.8 57.7 64.1 71.4 75.0 78.0 109 97 100 100 124 136 150 158 164 161 Annual rates Annual rates 1988- Apr May 396.2 398.5 395.7 404.2 403.2 406.9 407.7 July 1989: Jan Feb r. Mar r Apr " May" 1 324.7 326.8 327.2 330.7 332.3 335.6 418.0 415.7 414.6 414.9 Oct Nov Dec 3 320.2 411.5 421.0 Sept 2 318.5 317.7 336.5 333.8 339.6 335.6 192.0 190.4 188.1 194.2 195.4 196.9 300.0 200.6 201.7 201.4 199.7 201.1 200.7 1,059 904 919 690 756 955 1,097 1,016 1,019 942 138.5 137.7 136.8 136.4 137.1 138.7 140.5 142.7 144.2 76.8 78.1 77.5 77.1 76.7 75.1 76.0 76.3 77.5 49.7 51.8 52.2 53.3 54.7 55.1 54.8 55.3 56.4 77.7 78.3 78.0 79.5 76.4 79.7 77.0 79.2 85.4 158 166 169 160 162 157 164 158 163 852 860 904 954 905 880 841 839 942 145.4 145.4 143.7 141.8 80.4 80.2 84.5 80.3 54.6 53.8 53.9 54.6 81.4 82.0 75.0 79.3 155 148 150 163 159 943 850 856 836 905 Sources: Department of Commerce (Bureau of the Census) and McGraw-Hill Information Systems Company, F.W, Dodge Division. Includes residential improvements, not shown separately. Includes hotels and motels. F.W. Dodge series. NEW PRIVATE HOUSING AND VACANCY RATES [Thousands of units or homes, except as noted] New private homes New private housing units Period Units started, by type of structure Total 1979 1,745.1 1,292.2 1,084.2 1,062.2 1,703.0 1,749.5 1,741.8 1,805.4 1,620.5 1,488.1 1980 1981 1982 ... 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1 unit 1,194.1 852.2 705.4 662.6 1,067.6 1,084.2 1,072.4 1,179.4 1,146.4 1,081.3 2-4 units 5 or more units 122.0 429.0 330.5 287.7 109.5 91.1 80.0 113.5 121.4 93.4 84.0 65.3 58.8 319.6 522.0 544.0 576.1 542.0 408.7 348.0 Units authorized 1,551.8 1,190.6 985.5 1,000.5 1,605.2 1,681.8 1,733.3 1,769.4 1,534.8 1,455.6 Units completed Homes sold 1,870.8 1,501.6 1,265.7 1,005.5 1,390.3 1,652.2 1,703.3 1,756.4 1,668.8 1,529.8 709 545 436 412 623 639 688 750 671 676 Homes for sale at end of period 1 3 397 337 275 253 301 353 346 357 365 366 Vacancy rate for rental housing units (percent) 2 5.4 5.4 5.0 5.3 5.7 5.9 6.5 7.3 7.7 7.7 Seasonally adjusted annu al rates 1988- May 1,392 1,463 1,478 1,459 1,463 1,532 1,567 1,577 July Sept Oet Nov Dec 1989- Jan Feb Mar r May" 1 1,001 1,088 1,067 1,076 1,039 1,136 1,138 1,141 53 62 50 59 62 63 68 65 338 313 361 324 362 333 361 371 1,448 1,485 1,425 1,466 1,432 1,526 1,508 1,518 1,461 1,517 1,528 1,539 1,536 1,516 1,429 1,539 679 716 701712 691 718 650 669 370 367 365 363 361 353 364 366 1,678 1,465 1,409 1 ,339 1,311 1,199 1,029 981 1,027 980 66 62 50 64 46 413 374 378 248 285 1,486 1,403 1,230 1,334 1,347 1,537 700 r 621 547 597 613 369 r 375 377 377 382 Seasonally adjusted. Quarterly data entered in last month of quarter. Series beginning 1979 not strictly comparable with earlier data. 3 New series beginning March 1979. 2 r l,610 1,453 1,555 7.7 7.8 7.3 7.3 NOTE.—Beginning 1984, units authorized are for 17,000 permit-issuing places; for 1978-83 data are for 16,000 places. Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census. 19 BUSINESS SALES AND INVENTORIES—Manufacturing and Trade In April, manufacturing and trade sales rose 1.8 percent and inventories rose $4.4 billion. In May, according to advance data, retail sales rose 0.1 percent, following a rise of 1.0 percent in April. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE) BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE) 800 r- 700 240 - ^— _-r-^' r \ MAM JFACTURINC, 600 180 — 160 500 ^> Rbl AIL INVENTC >R1ES ~~^ - — — ^— •*"""" - NG Ah•4D TRADE S> dES M \NUFACTUR 400 , 140 - - — ^r^ 200 AND TRA 3E INVENTORIES - ^, 220 — 120 -C" A / •RETAIL SAl tb ,-''*-' — - - — 100 imiliiiii imiliiiii Illllllllll Illllllllll 300 Illllllllll RATKy 1.80 - - _ INVENTORY-SALES RATIO 1.60 Y» X. L~~\,'~~ "».---*" "-'' ^T- 1.40 200 RETA|L /^ MANUFACTURING AND TRADE 1.20 Illllllllll Illllllllll Illllllllll llll|||||ll 1985 1986 1987 iiiiiliiin 1.00 Illllllllll 1989 1988 1 Ullll ! \\\ 1986 1985 IIM.hlM, EA5ONALLY ADJU STED s DURCE: DEPARTME sIT OF COMMERCE Manufacturing and trade ' Sales Inventories 3 1988 million 1989 COUNCIL OF ECC NOMIC ADVISERS Wholesale Inventory-sales ratio 4 Retail Inventories 3 Sales 2 Period 2 MM lllllll 1987 Sales 2 Inventories 3 Total Durable goods stores Manufacturing and trade J Retail Total Durable goods stores Nondurable goods stores 61,093 64,754 68,985 72,434 74,802 79,077 83,384 134,468 147,377 167,159 180,825 185,224 206,981 221,242 61,469 68,984 79,257 88,608 90,477 106,271 114,994 72,999 78,393 87,902 92,217 94,747 100,710 106,248 1.67 1.56 1.53 1.55 1.55 1.51 1.50 1.49 1.44 1.49 1.53 1.56 1.56 1.57 81,188 82,143 82,690 83,378 84,119 84,324 85,117 85,599 85,035 206,622 208,575 210,824 211,534 215,396 219,297 216,724 218,093 221,242 104,019 105,860 107,064 107,443 110,146 114,303 111,689 112,904 114,994 102,603 102,715 103,760 104,091 105,250 104,994 105,035 105,189 106,248 1.50 1.50 1.49 1.50 1.50 1.51 1.49 1.49 1.49 1.55 1.56 1.56 1.56 1.58 1.62 1.57 1.56 1.59 86,225 86,357 86,630 r 87,124 87,132 222,584 224,185 224,693 226,548 115,704 116,169 115,993 117,148 106,880 108,016 108,700 109,400 1.48 1.50 1.51 1.49 1.59 1.61 1.61 1.61 Nondurable goods stores Millions of dollars, seasonally adjusted 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 348,747 368,813 407,869 418,151 423,700 449,536 485,756 1988: Apr r.... May.. . r July.. Sept.. Oct Nov.. Dec 1989- Jan Feb... Mar r Apr" May" 1 2 3 574,491 590,358 644,306 655,066 653,853 700,761 753,718 96,290 100,244 113,195 114,315 115,677 123,581 132,361 128,196 130,334 142,380 146,745 152,447 162,648 178,313 475,218 478,615 486,208 486,193 492,491 492,478 498,846 501,400 506,186 714,590 718,995 724,966 729,903 737,562 744,054 743,544 746,756 753,718 129,105 128,790 132,317 133,833 134,726 135,332 138,087 137,239 136,170 170,032 170,346 172,179 174,581 176,368 176,972 177,408 177,060 178,313 511,881 507,328 507,555 516,820 759,803 763,051 765,504 769,912 140,356 139,547 139,991 141,876 179,761 179,810 179,681 179,916 See page 21 for manufacturing. Monthly average for year and total for month. End of period. 20 89,107 97,328 106,805 113,821 119,663 126,785 135,763 r 133,077 134,048 135,010 135,662 136,050 135,751 137,842 139,529 139,189 140,040 139,428 139,516 r 140,942 141,085 28,013 32,574 37,819 41,387 44,861 47,707 52,379 r 51,889 5 1,905 52,320 52,284 51,931 51,427 52,725 53,930 54,154 53,815 53,071 52,886 r 53,818 53,953 4 r Annual data are averages of monthly ratios. Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census. MANUFACTURERS' SHIPMENTS, INVENTORIES, AND ORDERS In April, manufacturers' shipments, inventories, and orders rose. In May, according to advance data, shipments by durable goods manufacturers were about unchanged and new orders fell. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE) 280 240 SHIPMENT"; —"I 200 ' •— ^ \ TOTAL 280 160 DUR ABLE GOODs 120 .—i— ' -•_ *•*" "~~ "*~ - _.- - — r""" "* \ 80 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE) 480 440 — INVENTORIES400 360 TOTAL ===^i! 200 DURABLE GOODS 160 120 NO NDURABLE C OODS 60 Illllllllll Illllllllll Illllllllll Illllllllll Illllllllll BILLIO NS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE) NONDURABLE GOODS 80 60 280 240 Illllllllll Illllllllll Illllllllll Illllllllll Illllllllll 200 RATIC * 2.20 160 INVENTORY-SHIPMENTS RATIO 2.00 DURABLE GOODS 120 r~^ 1.80 1.60 - NONDURABLE GOODS- 80 - " ^ ~ 1 f\ 1.40 60 miilimi I l l l l l l l l l l Illllllllll 1986 1985 1987 I l l l l l l l l l l niiiliiiii MTIlllMI, 1985 1.20 1986 1989 1988 ''MllH'M 1987 •SEASONALLY ADJUSTED SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE IT III III til mill 1988 Manufacturers' shipments l Manufacturers' inventories 2 Manufacturers' new orders * Durable goods Period Total Durable goods 1989 COUNCIL CF ECONOMIC ADVISERS Nondurable goods Durable goods Total Nondurable goods Total Total Capital goods industries, nondefense Nondurable goods Manufacturers' unfilled orders 2 21,661 22,098 26,243 27,067 26,551 29,707 35,028 33,746 31,522 35,458 36,213 38,808 34,858 34,623 35,825 39,432 40,352 37,189 38,137 40,364 37,020 83,935 86,522 91,209 91,075 88,497 94,197 101,993 100,193 101,029 102,648 103,765 104,203 103,348 104,304 105,118 106,737 107,596 107,199 107,634 110,447 314,270 349,419 372,586 383,181 387,065 421,243 468,860 433,527 434,148 443,357 446,536 451,830 453,103 457,281 460,802 468,860 473,450 476,403 481,366 487,173 Manufacturers' inventory — shipments ratio 3 1.95 1.80 1.74 1.74 1.70 1.62 1.58 1.59 1.58 1.56 1.59 1.56 1.57 1.57 1.57 1.53 1.54 1.57 1.58 1.55 Millions of dollars, seasonally adjusted 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988. 1988: Apr May July Sept Oct Nov Dec 1989: Jan Feb Mar Apr r May" 1 2 163,350 171,242 187,869 190,016 188,360 199,170 217,632 213,036 215,777 218,881 216,698 221,715 221,395 222,917 224,632 230,827 231,485 228,353 228,048 234,002 79,352 84,956 96,623 99,019 99,989 105,291 115,684 112,521 114,751 116,522 113,122 117,866 118,030 118,439 119,874 124,175 123,578 120,924 120,432 123,349 123,284 83,998 86,286 91,246 90,996 88,371 93,879 101,948 100,515 101,026 102,359 103,576 103,849 103,365 104,478 104,758 106,652 107,907 107,429 107,616 110,653 311,827 312,647 334,767 327,496 316,182 331,132 354,163 337,936 340,074 341,963 343,788 345,798 347,785 349,412 351,603 354,163 357,458 359,056 361,130 363,448 Monthly average for year and total for month. Shipments are the same as sales. End of period. 200,825 200,406 218,771 214,066 208,313 216,598 233,666 221,405 222,948 224,000 225,467 226,600 228,214 229,735 231,766 233,666 236,810 238,165 239,330 240,548 111,002 112,241 115,996 113,430 107,869 114,534 120,497 116,531 117,126 117,963 118,321 119,198 119,571 119,677 119,837 120,497 120,648 120,891 121,800 122,900 3 162,273 174,122 189,791 190,918 188,663 201,966 221,627 217,029 216,398 228,090 219,877 227,009 222,669 227,095 228,153 238,886 236,075 231,306 233,011 239,809 78,338 87,600 98,581 99,843 100,166 107,770 119,634 116,836 115,369 125,442 116,112 122,806 119,321 122,791 123,035 132,149 128,479 124,107 125,377 129,362 123,973 Annual data are averages of monthly ratios. Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census. 21 PRICES PRODUCER PRICES In May, the producer price index for all finished goods rose 0.9 percent. Prices of finished consumer foods rose 0.8 percent while prices of other finished consumer goods rose 1.1 percent. Capital equipment prices rose 0.4 percent. INDEX, 1982 =100 (RATIO SCALE) INDEX, 1982 =100 (RATIO SCALE) 120 SEASONALLY ADJUSTED 120 rONSI IMFR FINISHED GOODS PRICES Wv« ruwuo \ CAPITAL EQUIPMENT \ ,-.- < '"'. ._ '"" . _V'J"' / ^ .-•> '— ^ -•"^-Ssi! ^- / ." ' fj.s'sl - .-"'">'"> .''' - i ~-~." -—*—5V^H * -./ V' •{V^^ . ia***^ i^x***.' ' ^ 100 f ^••» ^ ^s \ &$' 1 "-' ' P**f f *l" " % .S^ t /' ~-S~—**t —^**^ ' TOTAL / ,.'~''~ "\ 100 CONSUMER GOODS E KCLUDING FOC)DS Y 90 - — 80 Illllllllll iiiiiliiiii Illllllllll 1981 1983 1982 I11I( IIIIll|||ll 1984 Illllllllll IIIIlll|||l Illllllllll Illllllllll 1986 1985 1987 SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR 1989 1988 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [1982 = 100; monthly data seasonally adjusted] Intermediate materials Finished goods Finished goods excluding consumer foods Period Total finished goods Consumer foods Total 1980... 1981 1982 .. 1983 1984.... 1985 1986. 1987 1988 1988: May June July Aue: Sept 1989: 1 Oct Nov Dee Jan r. Peb Mar Apr May Durable Capital equipment Total Foods and feeds ' Other Crude materials Total Foodstuffs and Other stuffs 88.0 96.1 100.0 101.6 103.7 104.7 103.2 105.4 108.0 92.4 97.8 100.0 101.0 105.4 104.6 107.3 109.5 112.6 86.7 95.6 100.0 101.8 103.2 104.6 101.9 104.0 106.5 87.1 96.1 100.0 101.2 102.2 103.3 98.5 100.7 103.1 91.0 96.4 100.0 102.8 104.5 106.5 108.9 111.5 113.8 85.1 95.8 100.0 100.5 101.1 101.7 93.3 94.9 97.3 85.8 94.8 100.0 102.8 105.2 107.5 109.7 111.7 114.3 88.6 96.6 100.0 101.3 103.3 103.8 101.4 103.6 106.2 90.3 98.6 100.0 100.6 103.1 102.7 99.1 101.5 107.1 105.5 104.6 100.0 103.6 105.7 97.3 96.2 99.2 109.5 89.4 98.2 100.0 100.5 103.0 103.0 99.3 101.7 106.9 95.3 103.0 100.0 101.3 103.5 95.8 87.7 93.7 96.0 104.6 103.9 100.0 101.8 104.7 94.8 93.2 96.2 106.1 84.6 101.8 100.0 100.7 102.2 96.9 81.6 87.9 85.5 107.4 107.6 108.2 108.5 109.1 109.2 109.5 109.9 111.2 112.1 112.9 113.6 114.6 114.7 115.1 115.2 106.1 106.1 106.6 106.9 107.3 107.4 107.7 108.2 102.9 102.7 103.3 103.5 103.7 103.8 104.1 104.7 113.2 113.4 113.9 114.5 115.1 115.0 115.0 115.4 97.2 96.8 97.6 97.6 97.6 97.8 98.3 98.9 113.7 114.0 114.3 114.7 115.7 115.6 115.8 116.2 105.6 105.8 106.5 106.8 107.3 107.4 107.8 108.2 106.3 107.1 107.9 108.2 108.6 108.6 109.0 109.5 104.2 110.7 115.9 114.9 115.3 115.1 113.2 112.3 106.4 107.0 107.4 107.8 108.2 108.3 108.8 109.4 96.0 96.9 96.6 97.2 97.1 96.6 94.8 97.8 102.0 106.1 108.3 110.9 113.1 113.4 108.8 110.8 88.0 86.9 85.2 84.4 83.1 82.0 82.1 85.6 111.1 112.1 112.6 113.1 114.1 116.7 117.9 118.9 118.2 119.2 109.3 110.1 110.6 111.4 112.4 106.0 107.1 107.6 109.0 110.2 116.3 116.6 117.2 116.3 100.4 101.7 102.2 104.5 105.8 116.9 117.3 117.5 117.4 117. 9 109.5 110.7 111.3 112.0 113.2 110.8 111.2 112.0 112.5 112.6 115.2 114.6 116.7 115.2 113.6 110.5 111.1 111.8 112.3 112.6 101.8 101.3 103.6 104.2 105.1 113.3 111.7 115.1 111.9 112.3 90.2 90.3 91.8 94.8 96.0 Intermediate materials for food manufacturing and feeds. 22 Nondurable Consumer goods Total Total finished consumer goods in. 2 Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. CONSUMER PRICES—ALL URBAN CONSUMERS In May, the consumer price index for all urban consumers rose 0.6 adjusted. The index was 5.4 percent above its year-earlier percent, seasonally adjusted and not seasonally level. INDEX, 1982-84= 100 (RATIO SCALE) INDEX, 1982-84= 100 (RATIO SCALE) 130 130 SEASONALLY ADJUSTED 120 120 . CONSUMER PRICES—ALL ITEMS . 110 110 100 100 90 90 80 80 70 70 60 Illllllllll 1981 Illllllllll I l l l l l l l l l l 1983 1982 III I l l l l l l l 1984 Illllllllll 1985 Illllllllll 1986 I l l l l l l l l l l l 60 1987 1989 1988 SEE NOTE ON TABLE BELOW SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [1982-84—100, except as noted; monthly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted] All items l Transportation Housing All Shelter Not Period seasonally adjust- ed (NSA) Ret. imp.3.... 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1988: May Season- Rent- Pood ally adjust- ers' Total ! Total ed costs owners' 90.9 96.5 99.6 103.9 107 6 109.6 113 6 118.3 114.7- 6.4 90.9 95.3 97.8 100.2 102.1 105.0 105.9 110.6 115.4 17.2 83.1 93.2 97.0 99.3 103.7 106.4 102.3 105.4 108.7 4.3 88.4 93.7 97.4 99.9 102.8 106.1 110.6 114.6 116.9 3.1 97.4 108.5 102.8 99.4 97.9 98.7 77.1 80.2 80.9 6.0 74.9 82.9 92.5 100.6 106.8 113.5 122.0 130.1 138.6 7.3 86.0 97.7 99.2 99.9 100.9 101.6 88.2 88.6 89.3 48.7 80.6 88.3 95.1 100.0 105.0 109.0 112.7 117.0 121.9 and repairs 7.9 19.7 103.0 108.6 115.4 121.9 128.1 133.6 102.5 107.3 113.1 119.4 124.8 131.1 Ener- 7.6 75.4 86.4 94.9 100.2 104.8 106.5 104.1 103.0 104.4 costs 27.8 81.0 90.5 969 99.1 104.0 109.8 115.8 121.3 127.1 cal el and upkeep (Dec. 1982 = 100) 42.3 81.1 90.4 96.9 99.5 103.6 107.7 110.9 114.2 118.5 Medi- Appar- and other utilities Maintenance (Dec. 1982 = 100) 16.2 86.8 93.6 97.4 99.4 103.2 105.6 109.0 113.5 118.2 100.0 82 4 Fuel Home- items less food, shel- Total ! New cars Motor fuel care gy 2 (NSA) 0.2 82.4 90.7 96.4 99.9 103.7 106.5 107.9 111.8 ter, and energy Get Nov Dec 117.5 118.0 118.5 119.0 119.8 120.2 120.3 120.5 117.7 118.1 118.6 119.0 119.5 120.0 120.3 120.7 117.1 117.8 118.9 119.5 120.3 120.6 120.8 121.2 117.9 118.2 118.5 118.9 119.3 119.6 120.1 120.6 126.2 126.7 127.0 127.6 128.1 128.3 128.9 129.4 132.6 133.0 133.4 133.8 133.8 134.1 134.2 134.9 130.3 130.8 131.2 131.9 132.5 132.7 133.5 133.9 114.3 114.7 114.5 115.0 115.3 115.0 115.4 115.8 104.0 103.9 104.0 104.0 104.4 105.1 105.5 106.3 116.3 115.9 115.7 113.9 116.0 117.4 117.4 117.7 108.2 108.4 108.7 109.6 109.7 110.1 110.4 110.4 116.5 116.6 116.7 117.0 117.7 117.8 117.9 118.1 81.4 80.9 81.3 82.8 82.0 81.3 81.1 79.7 137.6 138.4 139.4 140.0 140.7 141.6 142.2 142.9 88.9 88.7 88.9 89.5 89.3 89.2 89.5 89.2 121.5 121.8 122.2 122.4 123.0 123.8 124.2 124.6 1989: Jan Feb Mar Apr May 121.1 121.6 122.3 123.1 123.8 121.4 121.9 122.5 123.3 124.0 122.1 122.6 123.6 124.2 125.0 120.9 121.3 121.7 121.8 122.3 129.7 130.3 131.1 131.2 131.8 135.2 136.4 138.2 137.3 137.3 134.2 134.7 135.1 135.6 136.5 116.1 117.1 117.1 117.3 117.4 106.9 106.7 106.9 107.4 107.6 117.7 117.5 119.1 119.4 120.4 111.2 111.9 112.6 115.0 116.1 118.9 119.3 119.7 119.8 119.6 80.5 81.8 83.6 93.0 96.6 144.0 145.2 145.9 146.6 147.6 89.9 90.4 91.4 96.1 97.6 125.4 125.8 126.3 126.6 127.2 July Aug Sept 1 Includes items not shown separately. Household fuels—gas (piped), electricity, fuel oil, etc.—and motor fuel. Motor oil, coolant, etc. a included through 1982. Relative importance, December 1988. 2 3 NOTE.—Data beginning 1983 incorporate a rental equivalence measure for homeownership costs and therefore are not strictly comparable with figures for earlier periods. Data beginning 1987 and 1988 calculated on a revised basis. iource: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. 23 CHANGES IN PRODUCER PRICES FOR FINISHED GOODS [Percent change from preceding period; monthly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted by NSA] Change from preceding period Period Change from 3 months earlier, annual rate Change from 6 months earlier, annual rate Consumer goods Consumer goods Consumer goods Total finished goods Capital equipment Excluding foods Foods Total finished goods Excluding foods Foods Capital equipment Total finished goods Capital equipment Excluding foods Foods Change from year earlier, total finished goods NSA Change, Dec. to Dec., NSA 11.8 7.1 3.6 .6 1.7 1.8 -2.3 2.2 4.0 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 14.1 8.6 4.2 -.9 .8 2.1 -6.6 4.1 3.1 7.5 1.5 2.0 2.3 3.5 .6 2.8 2 5.7 13.4 9.2 4.1 1.6 2.1 1.0 -1.4 2.1 2.5 11.4 9.2 3.9 2.0 1.8 2.7 2.1 1.3 3.6 Change, month to month 0.3 .2 .6 .3 .6 .1 .3 .4 July Sept Oct Nov Dec 1989- Jan ' Feb r Mar Apr ' May 0.5 .8 .7 .6 .9 .1 .3 .1 0.2 -.2 .6 .2 .2 .1 .3 .6 0.3 .3 .3 .3 .9 -.1 .2 .3 3.8 3.0 4.2 4.2 5.7 3.7 3.7 3.0 4.4 5.5 8.6 8.9 9.2 6.5 5.4 2.1 4.0 2.0 2.4 2.4 4.0 2.0 2.3 3.9 2.1 2.9 3.2 3.6 6.1 4.6 3.9 1.7 2.7 3.6 3.4 4.0 4.4 4.0 3.9 4.3 2.2 6.2 4.6 6.7 7.4 7.6 7.1 5.6 3.0 2.4 3.2 3.2 3.0 2.2 2.3 3.9 2.9 3.2 2.7 2.8 4.5 3.9 3.7 3.9 2.0 2.1 2.5 2.6 2.7 3.0 3.3 4.0 1.1 .9 .4 .4 .9 1988- May 1.3 1.0 .8 -.6 .8 1.2 1.0 .5 1.3 1.1 .6 .3 .2 7.1 9.8 10.2 7.4 7.3 7.2 10.1 13.5 5.2 4.5 8.8 12.0 11.5 11.8 12.1 4.6 5.3 4.6 1.7 2.1 5.4 6.7 6.5 7.3 8.6 6.8 7.7 7.6 6.2 7.3 5.3 7.1 7.7 10.3 12.1 4.6 4.6 3.1 3.1 3.7 4.5 5.3 5.6 5.6 6.2 1 .4 Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. CHANGES IN CONSUMER PRICES—ALL URBAN CONSUMERS [Percent change from preceding period; monthly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted by NSA] Housing Transportation Shelter Period All items 1 Food Total ' Total i Renters' costs Homeowners' costs Fuel and other utilities Apparel and upkeep New cars Total' Motor fuel Medical care Energy2 All items less food, shelter, and energy Addendum: AH items, percent change (annual rate) From previous quarter 3 From 3 months earlier From 6 months earlier From year earlier NSA Change, December to December, NSA 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 12.5 8.9 3.8 3.8 3.9 3.8 1.1 4.4 4.4 10.2 4.3 3.1 2.7 3.8 2.6 3.8 3.5 5.2 13.7 10.2 3.6 3.5 4.3 4.3 1.7 3.7 4.0 15.0 9.9 2.4 4.7 5.2 6.0 4.6 4.8 4.5 5.1 5.9 6.3 5.0 3.9 3.9 4.5 5.1 5.9 4.6 5.3 4.7 13.8 14.4 9.7 1.8 4.2 1.8 56 1.6 2.9 6.8 3.5 1.6 2.9 2.0 2.8 .9 4.8 4.7 7.4 18.8 9.4 6.8 65 1.5 3.4 -1.7 2.5 24 3.4 3.1 5.9 -30.7 18.7 1.8 2.1 -2.1 14.6 10.9 1.8 3.9 3.1 2.6 -5.9 6.1 3.0 9.9 12.5 11.0 6.4 6.1 6.8 7.7 5.8 6.9 18.0 11.9 1.3 -.5 .2 1.8 197 8.2 .5 13.5 10.3 6.2 3.2 4.3 3.6 1.9 3.6 4.1 9.8 9.4 6.1 5.0 4.3 3.7 3.3 3.8 4.7 Change, month to month 1988- May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 0.4 .3 .4 .3 .4 .4 .3 .3 0.4 .6 .9 .5 .7 .2 .2 .3 0.3 .3 .3 .3 .3 .3 .4 .4 0.3 .4 .2 .5 .4 .2 .5 .4 0.2 .3 .3 .3 0 .2 .1 .5 0.4 .4 .3 .5 .5 .2 .6 .3 0 -.1 .1 0 .4 .7 .4 .8 0.7 -.3 -.2 -1.6 1.8 1.2 0 .3 0.7 .2 .3 .8 .1 .4 .3 0 0.3 .1 .1 .3 .6 .1 .1 .2 1.6 -.6 .5 1.8 -1.0 9 -.2 -1.7 0.6 .6 .7 .4 .5 .6 .4 .5 0.6 -.2 .2 .7 .-.2 -.1 .3 -.3 0.4 .2 .3 .2 .5 .7 .3 .3 1989: Jan Feb Mar Apr May .6 .4 .5 .7 .6 .7 .4 .8 .5 .6 .2 .3 .3 .1 .4 .2 .5 .6 .1 .5 .2 .9 1.3 -.7 0 .2 .4 .3 .4 .7 .6 2 .2 .5 .2 0 -.2 1.4 .3 .8 .7 .6 .6 2.1 1.0 .7 .3 .3 .1 -.2 1.0 1.6 2.2 11.2 3.9 .8 .8 .5 .5 .7 .8 .6 1.1 5.1 1.6 .6 .3 .4 .2 .5 1 Includes items not shown separately. Household fuels—gas (piped), electricity, fuel oil, etc.—and motor fuel. Motor oil, coolant, etc., also included through 1982. 2 24 3 4.5 4.5 4.4 5.4 Quarterly changes are shown in the last month of the quarter, Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. 4.9 4.9 4.9 4.5 4.8 4.8 4.4 4.1 4.0 4.4 4.4 i-7 4.9 4.8 4.5 4.5 3.9 4.0 4.1 4.0 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.4 4.7 5.4 6.1 6.4 7.1 4.8 4.9 5.1 5.6 6.2 4.7 4.8 5.0 5.1 5.4 PRICES RECEIVED AND PAID BY FARMERS Prices received by farmers in June were 2.0 percent below their May level. Prices paid by farmers in April were 1.1 percent above their January level. (Data are not seasonally adjusted.) INDEX, 1977=100 (RATIO SCALE) 180 INDEX, 1977= 100 (RATIO SCALE) 180 160 160 PRICES PAID 140 140 120 120 PRICES RECEIVED 100 80 80 lllllllllll um lmii 60 RATICW 140 120 ILU 60 RA 120 100 - ^~~ lllll 100 KAIIU ^ _ - 80 r-—^—'1 ^ "" "1 60 lllllllllll lllllllllll lllllllllll lllllllllll lllllllllll lllllllllll lllllllllll lllllllllll lllllllllll 1981 1983 1985 1982 1984 ! 1986 1987 1988 1989 80 60 I/RATIO OF INDEX OF PRICES RECEIVED TO INDEX OF PRICES PAID. COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS SOURCE; DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE [1977 = 100; not seasonally adjusted] Prices paid by farmers Prices received by farmers Period 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1988: June July Aug; Sept Oct Nov Dec 1989- Jan Feb May T All farm products Livestock and products Crops 139 133 135 142 128 123 r !26 138 r !39 142 144 144 143 144 145 134 121 128 138 120 107 106 r !26 129 r !37 136 135 133 136 136 149 148 149 147 149 146 140 138 136 140 141 137 1 Includes items not shown separately. 2 Percentage ratio of index of prices received by farmers to index of prices paid, interest, taxes, and wage rates. See also footnote 'A. 3 Beginning March 1986, prices paid by farmers are available only for first month in quarter, and 143 145 141 146 136 138 146 150 147 147 152 153 152 151 154 158 158 161 154 156 155 All commodities, services, interest, taxes, and wage rates 1 Production items, interest, taxes, and wage rates 150 159 161 164 162 159 161 170 (3) 172 (3) (3) 173 (3) (3) 175 (3) (3) 177 (3) (3) 151 !58 159 161 156 150 151 160 r (3) 162 (3) (3) 163 (3) (3) 166 (3) (3) 167 (3) (3) Production items 148 153 152 155 151 r !44 147 157 (3) 159 (3) (3) 162 (3) (3) 163 (3) (3) 165 (3) (3) Ratio 2 92 84 84 87 79 77 79 81 r 83 83 84 84 83 83 84 85 85 85 83 84 82 NOTE. — The official indexes are published on a 1910-14 base as required by law. The indexes have been converted to a 1977 — 100 base to facilitate comparison with other indexes, source: Department of Agriculture. 25 MONEY, CREDIT, AND SECURITY MARKETS MONEY STOCK, LIQUID ASSETS, AND DEBT MEASURES Ml fell again in May and the broader aggregates declined as well. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS*(RATIO SCALE) BILLIONS OF DOLLARS*(RATIO SCALE) 4,000 3,600 4,000 3,600 3,200 3.200 2,800 2,800 2,400 2,400 M2 2,000 2,000 1,600 1,600 1,200 1,200 800 800 600 400 Minium 1982 1986 1983 1988 1989 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS • AVERAGES OF DAILY FIGURES; SEASONALLY ADJUSTED SOURCE: BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM [Averages of daily figures, except as noted; billions of dollars, seasonally adjusted] Ml Period 1980: 1981: 1982: 1983: 19841985: 19861987: 1988: Dec Dec. Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec . 1988: May July Sept Oct Nov Dec 1989: Jan T Feb ' Mar r May" 1 M2 M3 Sum of currency, demand deposits, travelers' checks, and other checkable deposits (OCDs) Ml plus overnight KPs and Eurodollars, MMMF balances (general purpose and broker/dealer), MMDAs, and savings and small time deposits M2 plus large time deposits, term KPs, term Eurodollars, and institution-only MMMF balances 412.2 439.1 476.4 522.1 551.9 620.5 725.9 752.3 790.3 1,633.3 1,795.9 1,954.5 2,186.0 2,367.2 2,567.4 2,811.2 2,909.9 r 3,069.4 1,991.1 1,236.9 2,443.8 2,694.3 2,982.3 3,201.7 3,494.9 3,677.6 r 3,913.0 2,327.8 2,599.4 2,853.5 3,155.5 3,523.4 3,830.6 4,137.1 4,340.5 '4,673.5 '3,882.5 '4,258.0 '4,642.0 '5,176.0 '5,923.5 '6,733.3 '7,596.9 '8,310.7 '9,052.1 6.8 6.5 8.5 9.6 5.7 12.4 17.0 3.6 5.1 8.9 10.0 8.8 11.8 8.3 8.5 9.5 3.5 5.5 10.2 12.3 9.2 10.3 10.7 7.4 9.2 5.2 '6.4 '9.6 9.7 9.0 11.5 '14.4 13.7 12.8 '9.4 '8.9 771.1 776.5 782.5 782.4 783.7 785.4 786.6 790.3 2,999.8 3,013.1 3,023.9 3,029.7 3,035.0 3,042.2 3,059.3 r 3,069.4 '3,794.3 '3,815.3 '3,837.8 r 3,849.8 '3,858.9 '3,875.6 '3,896.0 '3,913.0 '4,502.9 '4,520.1 '4,563.8 '4,582.3 '4,590.1 '4,610.9 '4,637.3 '4,673.5 '8,599.5 '8,659.1 '8,718.8 '8,784.3 '8,850.0 '8,912.4 '8,988.6 '9,052.1 4.4 6.5 6.5 6.0 5.3 3.7 4.1 3.6 6.7 7.2 6.5 5.4 4.5 3.5 4.0 3.8 6.9 7.6 7.5 6.5 5.6 5.2 '5.4 '5.2 '8.5 '8.6 '8.9 '9.0 '9.0 '8.9 '9.3 '9.3 786.3 787.4 786.3 783.2 773.4 3,065.7 3,069.2 3,078.7 3,081.3 3,072.8 3,918.1 3,927.7 3,949.5 3,957.6 3,954.3 4,677.2 4,689.7 4,723.0 4,739.2 9,107.2 9,172.3 9,229.4 9,286.0 1.0 1.3 .7 -.6 -3.3 2.8 2.6 2.9 2.6 .9 4.2 4.1 4.8 4.3 3.0 9.1 9.0 8.8 8.6 Consists of outstanding credit market debt of the U.S. Government, State and local governments, and private nonfinancial sectors; data from flow of funds accounts. 2 Annual changes are from December to December and monthly changes are from 6 months earli- 26 L M3 plus other liquid assets Debt Debt of domestic nonfinancial sectors (monthly average) l Percent change from year or 6 months earlier 2 Ml er at an annual rate. NOTE.—See p. 27 for components. Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. M2 M3 Debt COMPONENTS OF MONEY STOCK AND LIQUID ASSETS [Averages of daily figures; billions of dollars, seasonally adjusted, except as noted by NSA] Period Currency Demand deposits Other checkable deposits (OCDs) Overnight repurchase agreements (RPs), net, plus overnight Eurodollars Money market mutual fund balances General purpose and broker/ dealer NSA NSA Institution only NSA Small denomination time deposits l Large denomination time deposits ' Savings deposits NSA Term repurchase agreements (RPs) Term Eurodollars (net) NSA Money market deposit accounts (MMDAs) Savings bonds Shortterm Treasury securities Bankers' acceptances Commercial paper NSA 1980- Dec 1981: Dec 1982: Dec 1983: Dec.... 1984- Dec 1985: Dec 1986- Dec 1987: Dec 1988: Dec 115.2 122.5 132.6 146.3 156.1 167.8 180.5 196.4 211.8 261.5 231.5 234.2 238.7 244.2 267.3 303.2 288.3 288.6 31.3 80.8 105.3 132.2 146.4 179.5 235.8 260.4 282.3 28.3 35.9 38.8 53.8 56.3 70.2 78.3 78.3 r 78.3 61.6 150.6 185.2 138.2 167.5 176.5 208.0 221.1 239.4 15.2 38.0 51.1 43.2 62.7 64.5 84.4 89.6 87.6 0.0 .0 43.2 379.2 416.9 513.5 572.5 526.3 502.7 400.2 344.0 356.9 305.6 285.4 301.6 371.0 416.4 431.3 728.6 823.2 851.0 784.0 886.3 882.6 853.9 914.1 1,025.2 260.1 34.0 302.5 36.0 326.8 34.5 327.4 51.8 417.2 61.9 436.6 65.6 439.0 84.0 487.4 109.1 537.7 ' 123.1 50.3 67.5 81.7 91.5 82.9 76.1 84.9 90.8 104.6 72.3 67.8 68.0 71.1 74.2 79.4 91.7 100.4 109.1 133.5 149.4 183.6 211.9 260.7 300.1 282.3 257.5 r 275.0 32.1 40.0 44.5 45.0 45.4 42.0 37.2 44.7 40.6 98.8 105.3 113.6 133.2 160.7 207.4 231.0 260.3 335.8 1988: May 203.4 288.1 204.7 289.8 206.4 290.4 207.0 289.9 208.6 288.8 209.7 288.9 210.5 287.7 211.8 288.6 272.2 274.7 278.5 278.3 279.0 279.4 281.0 282.3 80.4 '80.9 77.6 79.9 77.3 76.0 r 75.6 r 78.3 231.8 228.9 229.6 230.8 231.0 231.3 237.4 239.4 90.0 86.3 84.8 84.0 83.7 84.6 87.4 87.6 520.5 523.2 522.0 517.7 511.4 507.5 506.7 502.7 425.2 427.6 429.7 430.9 430.5 429.2 431.8 431.3 971.0 975.7 981.0 988.3 998.7 1,009.7 1,017.8 1,025.2 502.4 121.0 r91.5 507.8 124.3 r 92.9 514.0 125.6 r95.8 519.4 123.8 ' 101.5 526.7 ' 122.3 r!01.2 532.0 ' 124.7 98.6 534.4 T 127.5 100.5 104.6 537.7 r!23.1 105.3 106.0 106.8 107.4 107.9 108.4 108.7 109.1 * 264.6 r 257.7 ' 268.7 ' 272.6 ' 272.8 ' 273.3 ' 268.4 ' 275.0 41.1 40.7 40.7 41.2 41.7 41.3 40.5 40.6 297.8 300.4 309.8 311.3 308.8 312.3 323.7 335.8 213.4 214.3 215.6 215.9 216.4 281.3 280.9 279.1 278.5 271.5 81.6 78.8 77.2 73.9 72.6 241.7 247.2 256.0 260.2 259.9 89.3 89.6 87.6 87.7 91.6 495.2 485.3 480.3 471.3 456.9 427.8 424.6 420.8 412.9 404.9 1,035.7 1,048.3 1,061.0 1,083.2 1,106.1 544.4 551.6 558.8 567.7 572.0 109.7 110.6 111.5 112.3 274.0 267.3 271.6 273.7 40.6 39.9 41.2 41.4 334.9 344.2 349.2 354.2 July Sent Oct Nov Dec 1989- Jan ' Feb r Mar r May" 284.0 284.8 284.3 281.5 278.2 1 Small denomination and large denomination deposits are those issued in amounts of less than $100,000 and more than $100,000, respectively. NOTE.—Travelers checks of nonbank issuers are a component of money stock hut are not shown 99.9 99.8 105.5 101.4 .101.4 124.1 127.1 129.4 127.0 127.6 here. Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. AGGREGATE RESERVES AND MONETARY BASE [Averages of daily figures; millions of dollars; seasonally adjusted, except as noted] Borrowings of depository institutions from the Federal Reserve (NSA) Adjusted for changes in reserve requirements Reserves of depository institutions Period Total 198019811982: 19831984: 19851986: 19871988: Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec ' 33,401 r 35,315 r 37,388 ' 39, 184 r 42,321 r 48,493 r 58,140 r 58,693 60,706 1988- May 60,422 60,576 61,058 60,903 60,824 60,862 60,853 60,706 60,370 60,260 59,854 59,463 58,740 July Sept Oct Nov Dec 1989: Jan Peb Mar May " Nonborrowed r Nonborrowed plus extended credit r Required Monetary base Total Seasonal Extended credit 31,714 34,827 '36,940 r 38,412 r 41,739 r 47,674 r 57,616 r 58,399 60,234 ' 32,887 ' 34,996 ' 36,888 ' 38,623 r 41,468 r 47,436 r 56,771 r 57,665 59,666 ' 152,525 ' 161,043 r 173,011 r 188,303 "•201,889 r 219,510 '241,448 r 257,991 275,501 1,690 636 634 774 3,186 1,318 827 777 1,716 116 54 33 96 113 56 38 93 130 3 148 186 2 2,604 499 303 483 1,244 57,845 57,493 57,618 57,663 57,985 58,562 57,991 58,990 59,951 60,047 60,157 60,316 60,043 60,343 60,314 60,234 59,382 59,688 60,051 59,950 59,852 59,800 59,733 59,666 266,761 268,205 270,308 270,979 272,420 273,659 274,380 275,501 2,578 3,083 3,440 3,241 2,839 2,299 2,861 1,716 246 311 376 423 421 332 186 130 2,107 2,554 2,538 2,653 2,059 1,781 2,322 1,244 58,708 58,773 58,041 57,174 57,019 59,754 59,822 59,376 58,880 58,217 59,226 59,106 58,896 58,686 57,709 276,784 277,553 278,615 278,674 278,329 1,662 1,487 1,813 2,289 1,720 76 97 139 213 345 1,046 1,050 1,334 1,707 1,197 31,711 ' 34,679 r 36,754 r 38,410 r 39,134 r 47,175 r 57,313 r 57,916 58,990 r Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System 27 BANK LOANS AND SECURITIES Total commercial bank loans and leases rose 0.7 percent in May and commercial and industrial loans rose 0.9 percent. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE) BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE) 2,800 ALL COMMERCIAL BANKS 2,400 2,800 2,400 2,000 2,000 1,600 1,600 1,200 1,200 LOANS AND LEASES 800 800 400 400 U.S. GOVERNMENT SECURITIES ~vr~ 200 160 120 200 160 OTHER SECURITIES ' Illllllllll 1981 Illllllllll 1982 Illllllllll Illllllllll 1984 1983 T986 1985 1987 * SEASONALLY ADJUSTED SOURCE: BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM 1988 120 1989 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Billions of dollars, seasonally adjusted J All commercial banks Loans and leases Period 1981: 1982: 1983: 1984: 1985: 1986: 1987: 1988: 1988: 1989: Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr r .... May"... Total loans and securities 2 U.S. Government securities 1,307.7 1,401.5 1,553.6 179.3 201.7 259.2 260.2 270.7 1,723.6 1,910.1 2,092.8 2,237.4 2,408.0 2,325.5 2,343.5 2,358.5 2,371.4 2,373.5 2,392.6 2,400.6 2,408.0 2,412.8 2,441.8 2,454.9 2,460.9 2,476.9 309.5 335.5 362.4 346.4 348.8 349.3 350.9 353.2 356.0 358.5 362.4 361.8 363.4 370.3 372.2 375.3 Other securities Total 2 160.9 967.5 165.7 1,034.1 170.6 1,123.9 142.6 1,320.9 181.3 1,458.1 196.4 1,586.8 195.2 1,706.8 192.9 1,852.7 196.4 1,782.7 196.7 1,797.9 196.9 1,812.3 196.7 1,823.9 195.4 1,825.0 196.6 1,839.9 195.3 1,846.8 192.9 1,852.7 188.0 1,863.0 188.5 1,889.9 r 187.7 1,896.8 185.3 1,903.4 184.7 1,917.0 Commercial and industrial 355.4 392.6 414.1 472.9 499.7 536.1 562.6 599.7 584.5 589.3 594.9 595.3 594.3 597.8 598.9 599.7 604.5 616.5 614.5 616.2 621.9 Nonbank Real estate Individual 284.1 299.8 330.8 376.3 425.5 493.5 588.2 664.8 620.5 626.9 633.3 640.3 646.9 654.7 659.3 664.8 671.2 678.3 T 685.5 694.8 700.9 182.5 188.2 212.9 253.8 294.0 314.9 328.4 355.1 341.9 343.4 344.6 346.5 348.9 350.8 352.3 355.1 357.0 357.9 359.9 362.1 364.7 2 State and Foreign banks Security financial institutions Agricultural political subdivisions 21.5 29.9 31.3 30.5 31.4 32.5 35.0 31.9 29.9 30.6 30.6 31.0 31.0 30.5 30.2 30.0 29.9 30.1 30.5 29.6 29.1 28.9 33.1 36.2 39.2 40.1 36.1 31.6 29.4 30.7 29.5 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.8 30.3 30.7 30.7 30.7 30.7 30.4 30.3 0.0 .0 3.3 46.0 56.7 18.1 14.8 13.4 11.1 9.7 58.4 52.5 47.1 49.4 49.2 48.8 48.2 48.0 48.7 47:9 47.1 44.8 45.0 45.1 45.2 45.3 9.6 7.5 7.5 8.0 8.1 8.2 8.2 7.5 7.8 8.2 7.5 7.6 8.2 7.9 8.0 9.1 25.4 28.1 34.3 42.7 40.1 34.4 37.9 39.7 39.5 38.9 39.7 36.7 r 38.6 r 38.1 r 38.1 r 37.2 r 44.2 r 43.0 39.3 37.4 Excludes loans to commercial banks in the United States. Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. 28 Foreign official institutions Lease financing receivables 7.2 5.9 9.4 12.7 13.3 13.7 16.0 18.9 22.3 24.4 28.1 26.2 26.8 27.5 27.6 27.8 27.9 28.0 28.1 28.3 28.4 28.6 28.6 29.6 7.9 6.0 5.9 5.3 5.6 5.1 5.0 5.0 5.2 5.2 5.1 5.4 5.6 5.6 5.5 5.5 5.6 5.6 Other 23.1 26.6 31.8 31.2 36.2 39.4 42.1 46.4 47.2 49.6 50.4 52.4 49.4 r 48.5 r 48.6 r 46.2 r 46.0 r 44.6 r 46.5 44.0 43.2 SOURCES AND USES OF FUNDS, NONFARM NONFINANCIAL CORPORATE BUSINESS [Billons of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Uses Sources 1 1 Period Total External Internal ' Securities and mortgages Total Total 1979 1980 1981 1982. 1983 1984 1985.. Capital expenditures 3 Credit market funds Loans and short-term paper Total Other 2 Increase in financial assets Discrepancy (sources less uses) 326.0 324.8 375.8 298.5 420.3 492.6 459.2 519.8 482.9 467.5 197.6 200.1 239.5 242.3 285.7 336.3 352.3 357.5 352.8 366.8 128.4 124.7 136.4 56.2 134.6 156.3 106.9 162.3 130.1 100.7 60.1 70.7 90.7 49.8 77.9 95.8 50.9 121.3 68.5 63.8 9.0 34.5 29.4 10.3 52.6 -5.1 5.0 59.0 38.2 18 2 51.1 36.2 61.2 39.5 25.3 100.9 46.0 62.3 30.3 82.0 68.2 54.0 45.7 6.4 56.8 60.5 55.9 41.0 61.6 37.0 368.1 342.1 383.6 303.5 385.8 502.7 435.3 456.7 437.3 448.3 238.3 243.7 286.5 256.5 270.7 370.6 342.3 333.9 361.7 395.7 129.8 98.4 97.0 47.0 115.1 132.1 93.0 122.8 75.6 52.6 -42.1 -17.3 -7.7 -4.9 34.5 -10.1 23.9 63.0 45.5 19.1 IV 464.4 465.8 475.8 463.5 359.9 363.6 365.3 378.3 104.5 102.2 110.5 85.2 100.5 54.0 67.5 32.8 20.5 -20.0 12.4 86 1 80.0 74.0 55.1 118.9 4.0 48.2 43.1 52.4 433.9 447.3 459.6 452.2 387.8 386.7 398.6 409.3 46.1 60.6 61.0 42.9 30.5 18.5 16.1 11.3 1989- I p 431.4 355.8 75.6 75.6 80.9 425.3 406.6 18.7 6.0 1986 T 1987 1988 T 1988: Ir n rT mr 81 0 -5.4 1 Undistributed profits (after inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments), capital consumption allowances, and foreign branch profits, dividends, and subsidiaries' earnings retained abroad. 2 Consists of tax liabilities, trade debt, and direct foreign investment in the U.S. 3 Plant and equipment, residential structures, inventory investment, and mineral rights from U.S. Government. Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. CONSUMER INSTALLMENT CREDIT [Millions of dollars; seasonally adjusted] Net change in installment credit outstanding 1 Installment credit outstanding (end of period) Period 19801981: 19821983: 1984: 1985: 1986: 1987: 19881988- Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Apr May June July Sept Oct Nov Dec NEW SERIES: 1989: Jan Feb Mar r Apr p Mobile home Revolving Mobile home 297,566 310,682 323,536 367,868 442,538 517,755 572,047 607,721 659,507 628,585 632,431 637,836 639,207 644,666 646,556 649,132 654,413 659,507 111,936 118,956 124,218 143,799 173,704 209,636 247,313 265,976 281,174 275,289 276,458 278,058 277,659 279,585 279,243 278,902 279,926 281,174 54,894 60,838 66,243 78,667 100,212 122,013 137,013 153,884 174,792 160,631 162,105 164,408 165,343 167,125 168,273 170,131 173,030 174,792 18,621 20,302 22,833 23,704 25,795 26,834 27,355 26,387 25,744 26,280 26,249 26,174 26,213 26,277 26,185 26,033 26,005 25,744 112,115 110,586 110,242 121,698 142,827 159,272 160,367 161,475 177,798 166,385 167,619 169,196 169,993 171,679 172,855 174,066 175,452 177,798 1,083 13,116 12,854 44,332 74,670 75,217 54,292 35,674 51,786 3,413 3,846 5,405 1,371 5,459 1,890 2,576 5,281 5,094 539 7,020 5,262 19,581 29,905 35,932 37,677 18,663 15,198 1,224 1,169 1,600 -399 1,926 -342 341 1,024 1,248 1,537 5,944 5,405 12,424 21,545 21,801 15,000 16,871 20,908 1,276 1,474 2,303 935 1,782 1,148 1,858 2,899 1,762 414 1,681 2,531 871 2,091 1,039 521 -968 643 -138 31 -75 39 64 92 -152 -28 -261 329 -1,529 344 11,456 21,129 16,445 1,095 1,108 16,323 1,051 1,234 1,577 797 1,686 1,176 1,211 1,386 2,346 682,022 687,397 691,084 693,815 286,382 288,768 288,755 289,507 176,716 178,570 182,615 184,382 26,036 25,992 24,143 23,964 192,887 194,068 195,571 195,963 (2) 5,375 3,687 2,731 (2) 2,386 -13 752 (2) 1,854 4,046 1,766 (2) — 44 1 849 -179 <2> 1,180 1,503 392 1 For year-end data, change from preceding year-end; for monthly data, change from preceding month. 2 Because of break in series, net change not available. Automobile Automobile Total Other Total Revolving Other Source: Bo&td o< Governors o( the Federal Reserje Systfim. 29 INTEREST RATES AND BOND YIELDS Interest rates fell in June. PERCENT PER ANNUM PERCENT PER ANNUM , l\ \ \/ .A » -N \ ' N! ' \ \ '-' r \ \ /v\ • A \ '•• \ ''••: r \\ X \ \ / 1 1 I 1 1 1 ] M i \ u--\ \\ r\ ^rr\ L ' '''• RATE FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF NEW YORK M | | 1 M C ORPORATE Asa BONDS (MOODY'S N( A \ \ \ A. 1982 1981 ;\ \ V 1 i 1 1 1 1 "•„ ' .,-..../ III! \ I v ' 1 1 1 M 1 1984 /\ TREASURY A \ i/ \/ \] •4-1 \| II i i i 1 I 1 i I [ 1983 f /-'' / 1 1 1 ( 1 1 1 M 1986 - /r~_T~ ,...,y| ' - \j ; i i i i , i i i i i !• I 1 1985 V i i nt1i iiM t 1 1 1 i 1 1 1 i 1 IK 1989 1988 1987 SOURCE; SEE TABLE BEtOW COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Percent per annum] U.S. Treasury security yields Period 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 3-month bills (new issues) l Constant maturities z 3-year 10-year High-grade municipal bonds (Standard & Poor's) 3 Corporate Aaa bonds (Moody's) 4 Prime commercial paper, 6 months * Discount rate (N.Y. F.R. Bank) 5 Prime rate charged by banks 5 New-home mortgage yields (FHLBB)6 14.029 10.686 8.63 9.58 7.48 5.98 5.82 6.69 14.44 12.92 10.45 11.89 9.64 7.06 7.68 8.26 13.91 13.00 11.10 12.44 10.62 7.68 8.39 8.85 11.23 11.57 9.47 10.15 9.18 7.38 7.73 7.76 14.17 13.79 12.04 12.71 11.37 9.02 9.38 9.71 14.76 11.89 8.89 10.16 8.01 6.39 6.85 7.68 13.41 11.02 8.50 8.80 7.69 6.33 5.66 6.20 18.87 14.86 10.79 12.04 9.93 8.33 8.22 9.32 14.70 15.14 12.57 12.38 11.55 10.17 9.31 9.19 Sept Oct Nov Dee 6.50 6.73 7.02 7.23 7.34 7.68 8.09 8.22 8.44 8.77 8.57 8.43 8.72 9.11 8.92 9.06 9.26 8.98 8.80 8.96 9.11 7.86 7.87 7.86 7.71 7.54 7.58 7.66 9.86 9.96 10.11 9.82 9.51 9.45 9.57 7.53 7.90 8.36 8.23 8.24 8.55 8.97 6.00-6.00 6.00-6.00 6.00-6.50 6.50-6.50 6.50-6.50 6.50-6.50 6.50-6.50 9.00-9.00 9.00-9.50 9.50-10.00 10.00-10.00 10.00-10.00 10.00-10.50 10.50-10.50 9.26 9.17 9.06 9.26 9.10 9.43 9.39 Jan Feb Mar Apr May . . June p. 8.29 8.48 8.83 8.70 8.40 8.22 9.20 9.32 9.61 9.40 8.98 8.38 9.09 9.17 9.36 9.18 8.86 8.29 7.41 7.47 7.61 7.49 7.25 6.97 9.62 9.64 9.80 9.79 9.57 9.11 9.02 9.35 9.97 9.78 9.29 8.81 6.50-6.50 6.50-7.00 7.00-7.00 7.00-7.00 7.00-7.00 7.00-7.00 10 50 10 50 10.50-11.50 11.50-11.50 11.50-11.50 11.50-11.50 11.50-11.00 9.52 9.82 9.99 r 10.17 10.18 8.50 8.17 8.13 8.22 8.07 8.71 8.33 8.38 8.45 8.24 8.57 8:28 8.26 8.34 8.14 7.16 6.97 6.87 7.08 6.95 9.37 9.16 9.02 9.09 9.05 8.71 8.74 8.92 8.75 7.00-7.00 7.00-7.00 7.00-7.00 7.00-7.00 7.00- 11.50-11.50 11.50-11.00 11.00-11.00 11.00-11.00 11.00- . 1988- June July 1989: Week ended: 1989: June 3. 10 17 24 July 1 " 1 Bank-discount basis. 2 Yields on the more actively traded issues adjusted to constant maturities by the Treasury Department. 3 Weekly data are Wednesday figures. 4 Series excludes public utility issues for January 17, 1984 through October 11, 1984 due to lack of appropriate issues. 30 5 Average effective rate for year; opening and closing rate for month and week. 8 Effective rate (in the primary market) on conventional mortgages, reflecting fees and charges as well as contract rate and assumed, on the average, repayment at end of 10 years. Sources: Department of the Treasury, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Federal Home Loan Bank Board, Moody's Investors Service, and Standard & Poor's Corporation. COMMON STOCK PRICES AND YIELDS Stock prices rose in June. INDEX, DEC. 31, 1965 = 50 (RATIOS CALE) INDEX DEC. 31, 1965 = 50 (RATIO SCALE) 240 220 200 180 / 160 COMPOSITE STOCK PRICE INDEX (KfSE) /- HO \ 120 ^ -^ ~s\\ /-~s-~^~' 240 220 200 180 ^ 160 UO / 120 ^~~S 100 100 V-W S 80 ^ 1 80 "A Y^ 60 60 ^J \\\\\{\\\\\ \\\\\\\\\\\ 1981 40 1982 1984 1983 40 i \\\ \ \ \ 11 » i I 1 1I t ( 1 I 1 1 1 1985 1986 1987 11 1 I 1 \ 1 1 1 1 1 1988 1989 PERC:ENT PERC ENT 20 20 15 15 ^ 10 EARNINGS-PRICE RATIO ON COMMON STOCKS \ " ~ ^ 1 (S&P) ^___ --—_ 10 - /n__- ^ ^ 1 0 1 1 1 1 1 1982 1981 1 1 1 1983 OURCES: NEW YORK STOCK EXCHANGE A •JD STANDARD & POC i i i 1984 1 1 L_ 1985 1 1 1 1986 i i i 1987 1 5 1 Period 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1988: June July Sept Oct Nov Dec 1989- Jan Feb Mar May June p Week ended: 1989: June 3 10 17 24 July 1 f 1 Industrial Utility Finance Dow-Jones industrial average 3 Standard & Poor's composite index (194143=10)" Dividendprice ratio 74.02 68.93 92.63 92.46 108.09 136.00 161.70 149.91 152.72 152.12 149.25 151.47 156.36 152.67 155.35 160.40 165.08 164.60 169.38 175.30 180.90 85.44 78.18 107.45 108.01 123.79 155.85 195.31 180.95 184.92 184.09 179.72 182.18 188.58 183.79 187.75 194.62 200.00 199.20 204.81 211.51 216.93 72.61 60.41 89.36 85.63 104.11 119.87 140.39 134.12 136.02 136.49 132.53 136.27 141.93 138.60 144.07 153.09 162.66 160.14 164.32 168.88 173.58 38.91 39.75 47.00 46.44 56.75 71.36 74.30 71.77 72.25 71.50 70.67 71.83 74.19 73.83 74.81 75.87 77.84 77.66 79.69 84.07 87.98 73.52 71.99 95.34 89.28 114.21 147.20 146.48 127.26 129.04 129.99 130.77 133.15 134.66 129.61 128.83 132.26 137.19 137.91 143.26 146.60 154.21 932.92 884.36 1,190.34 1,178.48 1,328.23 1,792.76 2,275.99 2,060.82 128.05 119.71 160.41 160.46 186.84 236.34 286.83 265.79 5.20 5.81 4.40 4.64 4.25 3.49 3.08 3.64 2,104.94 2,104.22 2,051.29 2,080.06 2,144.31 2,099.04 2,148.58 270.68 269.05 263.73 267.97 277.40 271.02 276.51 3.58 3.65 3.75 3.69 3.61 3.70 3.68 2,234.68 2,304.30 2,283.11 2,348.91 2,439.55 2,497.51 285.41 294.01 292.71 302.25 r 313.93 324.00 179.52 181.58 180.49 180.27 181.50 216.01 217.75 216.44 216.01 217.56 171.80 172.03 173.31 174.96 174.76 86.59 88.50 87.51 87.74 88.62 151.62 155.00 154.40 153.83 154.12 2,491.04 2,503.93 2,497.42 2,486.34 2,500.19 321.77 325.33 323.08 322.79 325.13 Earningsprice ratio 11.96 11.60 8.03 10.02 8.12 6.09 5.48 8.00 7.92 3.64 3.59 3.68 3.59 3.52 3.44 3.47 3.40 3.43 3.48 3.43 Average of daily closing prices. Includes all the stocks (more than 1 n 1,500) listed on the NYSE. Includes 30 stocks. Includes 500 stocks. 5 Standard & Poor's series. Dividend-price ratios based on Wednesday closing prices. Earnings2 3 4 0 Common stock yields (percent) 5 New York Stock Exchange indexes (I ec. 31, 1965 = 5 3)2 Composite I ECONOMIC ADVISERS Common stock prices 1 Transportation 1 1989 1988 COUNCIL OF R'S CORPORATION 1 1 8.36 8.55 price ratios based on prices at end of quarter. NOTE,—-All data relate to stocks listed on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE). Sources: New York Stock Exchange, Dow-Jones & Company, Inc., and Standard & Poor's Corporation. FEDERAL FINANCE FEDERAL RECEIPTS, OUTLAYS, AND DEBT In the first 8 months of fiscal 1989, there was a deficit of $113.3 billion, compared with a deficit of $128.4 billion a year earlier. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 1,200, RECEIPTS AND OUTLAYS^ 1,200 1,100 1,100 OUTLAYS-^ 1,000 1,000 .V 900 900 800 800 700 700 600 600 -100 -200 -200 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1989 1988 1990 FISCAL YEARS V INCLUDES ON-BUDGET AND OFF-BUDGET ITEMS. SOURCES: DEPARTMENT OF THE TREASURY AND OFFICE OF MANAGEMENT AND BUDGET COUNCIt OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Billions of dollars] Total Fiscal year or period Receipts Outlays Surplus or deficit (-) Receipts Outlays 1976 Transition quarter 1977 1978.... 1979 1980.... 1981 1982 .. 1983.... 1984 298.1 81.2 355.6 399.6 463.3 517.1 599.3 617.8 600.6 666.5 371.8 96.0 409.2 458.7 503.5 59C.9 678.2 745.7 808.3 851.8 73 7 -14.7 53 6 -59.2 40 2 -73.8 -78.9 -127.9 -207.8 185 3 231.7 63.2 278.7 314.2 365.3 403.9 469.1 474.3 453.2 500.4 302.2 76.6 328.5 369.1 403.5 476.6 543.0 594.3 661.2 686.0 1985 1986..., 1987 1988..., 1989 (estimates) * 1990 (estimates) l 734.1 769.1 854.1 909.0 979.3 1,065.6 946.3 990.3 1,003.8 1,064.0 1,143.0 1,160.4 -212.3 -221.2 149 7 -155.1 163 7 -94.8 547.9 568.9 640.7 667.5 711.8 776.4 581.8 641.5 710.2 754.9 -128.4 113 3 422.2 465.1 Cumulative total, first 8 months: 2 Fiscal year 1988 Fiscal year 1989 1 Estimates of February 9, 1989. Asset sales are included in 1989 data. Data for 1990 exclude proposed loan asset sales ( — $3.6 billion) and the impact of credit reform, which is proposed to start that year. The Administration endorses credit reform and loan asset sales. 2 Data from Monthly Treasury Statement for May 1989, issued June 1989. 32 Gross Federal debt (end of period) Off-budget On-budget Surplus or deficit (-) 70 5 -13.3 Receipts Outlays -54.9 38 2 -72.7 73 9 -120.0 -208.0 185 6 66.4 18.0 76.8 85.4 98.0 113.2 130.2 143.5 147.3 166.1 69.6 19.4 80.7 89.7 100.0 114.3 135.2 151.4 147.1 165.8 769.5 806.8 810.0 861.4 932.1 939.5 -221.6 -237.9 169 3 -193.9 220 4 -163.1 186.2 200.2 213.4 241.5 267.5 289.2 576.8 615.8 -154.6 150 7 159.5 176.4 4.0 7 Surplus or deficit (-) Total Held by the public -3.9 43 -2.0 \ j -5.0 79 .2 .3 629.0 643.6 706.4 776.6 828.9 908.5 994.3 1,136.8 1,371.2 1,564.1 477.4 495.5 549.1 607.1 639.8 709.3 784.8 919.2 1,131.0 1,300.0 176.8 183.5 193.8 202.7 210.9 220.9 9.4 16.7 19.6 38.8 56.7 68.3 1,817.0 2,120.1 2,345.6 2,600.8 2,868.8 3,107.2 1,499.4 1,736.2 1,888.1 2,050.2 2,193.8 2,285.0 133.4 139.0 26.2 37.4 2,514.5 2,785.1 1,998.7 2,149.6 -3.2 14 NOTE.—Data are from Budget of the United States Government, Fiscal Year 1990, January 1989, except as noted. Sources: Department of the Treasury and Office of Management and Budget. FEDERAL RECEIPTS BY SOURCE AND OUTLAYS BY FUNCTION In the first 8 months of fiscal 1989, billion higher. receipts were $59.7 billion higher than a year earlier and outlays were $44.7 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 500 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 500 RECEIPTS!/ 400 . INDIVIDUAL INCOME TAXES^ 400 300 300 SOCIAL INSURANCE TAXES AND CONTRIBUTIONS 200 CORPORATION. INCOME TAXES OTHER RECEIPTS 100 200 100 0 0 900 900 OUTLAYS-!/ 800 -NONDEFENSE 800 700 700 600 600 500 500 400 400 NATIONAL DEFENSE 300 200 300 - 200 1981 1982 1984 1983 1985 1986 1987 1989 1988 1990 FISCAL YEARS _!/'INCLUDES ON-BUDGET AND OFF-BUDGET ITEMSSOURCES: DEPARTMENT OF THE TREASURY AND OFFICE OF MANAGEMENT AND BUDGET COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Billions of dollars] On-budget and off-budget outlays On-budget and off-budget receipts Fiscal year Total 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 (estimates) 1 1990 (estimates) ' Cumulative total, first 8 months: 2 Fiscal vear 1988 Fiscal year 1989 1 2 298.1 355.6 399.8 463.3 517.1 599.3 617.8 600.6 666 5 734.1 769.1 854.1 909.0 979.3 1,065.6 581.8 641.5 National defense Individual income taxes Corporation income taxes 131.6 157.6 181.0 217.8 244.1 285.9 297.7 288.9 298.4 41.4 54.9 60.0 65.7 64.6 61.1 49.2 37.0 56.9 90.8 106.5 121.0 138.9 157.8 182.7 201.5 209.0 239.4 34.3 36.6 37.7 40.8 50.6 69.5 69.3 65.6 71.8 371.8 409.2 458.7 503.5 590.9 678.2 745.7 808.3 851.8 61.3 334.5 349.0 63.1 83.9 392.6 94.5 401.2 534 .5 58! .9 265.2 283.9 303.3 334.3 364.7 391.9 73.0 73.1 74.3 78.9 80.1 83.8 946.3 990.3 1,003.8 1,064.0 1,143.0 1,160.4 52.2 58.6 222.4 242.5 51.6 56.0 710.2 754.9 255.6 284.5 See footnote 1, page 32. Data from Monthly Treasury Statement for May 1989, issued June 1989. Social insurance taxes Other Total and contributions Social security inter- ty 15.8 19.3 22.8 26.5 32.1 39.1 46.6 52.6 57.5 60.8 61.0 61.5 66.4 86.5 99.7 107.7 122.6 112.7 73.9 85.1 93.9 104.1 118.5 139.6 156.0 170.7 178.2 26.7 29.9 35.4 42.6 52.5 68.7 85.0 89.8 111.1 82.8 93.0 114.7 119.6 131.4 133.5 125.4 122.3 118.6 33.5 35.9 40.0 44.5 49.8 53.7 65.8 70.2 75.1 78.9 86.8 94.8 128.2 119.8 123.3 129.3 137.0 138.3 188.6 198.8 207.4 219.3 232.3 246.6 129.4 136.0 138.6 151.7 168.8 173.3 131.8 142.1 125.9 139.4 160.8 136.1 29.1 31.9 51.8 54.6 89.3 93.4 143.4 151.8 101.9 112.2 93.4 105.7 Department of Defense, military International affairs Health 89.6 97.2 104.5 116.3 134.0 157.5 185.3 209.9 227.4 87.9 95.1 102.3 113.6 130.9 153.9 180.7 204.4 220.9 6.4 6.4 7.5 7.5 12.7 13.1 12.3 11.8 15.9 15.7 17.3 18.5 20.5 23.2 26.9 27.4 28.6 30.4 252.7 273.4 282.0 290.4 298.3 300.4 245.2 265.5 274.0 281.9 289.8 291.2 16.2 14.2 11.6 10.5 16.3 17.2 194.1 198.6 188.7 193.0 Total 7.1 6.7 Medi- Income securi- Net Other est NOTE.—Data are from Budget of the United States Government, Fiscal Year 1990, January 1989, except as noted. Sources: Department of the Treasury and Office of Management and Budget. 33 FEDERAL SECTOR, NATIONAL INCOME ACCOUNTS BASIS In the first quarter of 1989, according to revised estimates. Federal receipts rose $49.6 billion (annual rate) and Federal expenditures rose $31.6 billion. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 1,200 1,200 SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES 1,000 1,000 • EXPENDITURES • 800 800 600 600 400 400 200 200 SURPLUS OR DEFICIT (-) -200 -200 I 1981 1982 1984 1983 1 I J 1986 1985 I 1987 I I I 1988 I I 1 1989 CALENDAR YEARS COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE [Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Federal Government receipts Period Total Personal tax and nontax receipts Corporate profits tax accruals Indirect business tax and nontax accruals Federal Government expenditures Contributions for social insurance Total Purchases of goods and services Transfer payments Grantsin-aid to State and local governments Net interest paid Subsidies less current surplus of Government enterprises Less: Wage accruals less disbursements Surplus or deficit (-), national income and product accounts Fiscal year: 1985 1986 1987 1988 776.8 815.0 901.7 964.8 340.4 357.0 401.6 413.1 74.6 80.7 101.7 109.9 55.9 51.2 53.2 57.0 305.8 326.0 345.2 384.8 962.3 1,027.8 1,058.9 1,106.3 341.5 368.4 375.4 378.3 374.0 394.6 411.1 434.2 97.8 107.4 103.1 108.5 128.3 134.4 139.7 150.4 20.7 22.9 29.6 34.8 -0.1 .0 .1 j 185 5 212 8 -157.2 141 5 Calendar year: 1985 . .. . 1986 1987 1988 788.7 828.3 916.5 975.2 346.4 361.5 405.6 413.4 76.3 83.9 105.8 111.4 55.1 50.8 54.0 56.7 310.9 332.2 351.0 393.7 985.6 1,033.9 1,074.2 1,117.6 355.2 366.2 382.0 381.0 380.1 399.8 414.2 440.1 99.7 106.8 102.7 111.5 130.1 135.4 143.0 153.9 20.3 25.7 32.4 31.1 -.2 .0 .0 .0 -196.9 205 6 -157.8 -142.3 1982: 1983: 1984: 1985: 1986: IV IV IV IV IV 633.1 675.5 742.7 805.3 856.8 303.0 291.9 326.0 355.3 378.3 46.4 70.2 69.7 78.8 89.7 47.6 53.6 56.2 53.5 51.0 236.1 259.8 290.7 317.7 337.8 835.7 844.7 930.2 1,017.5 1,040.1 293.2 276.1 326.0 376.6 366.7 347.4 352.5 362.1 385.8 405.4 84.5 86.0 96.3 103.5 102.3 87.2 101.0 125.3 132.7 136.5 23.4 29.1 21.0 19.0 29.1 .0 .0 .6 .0 .0 -202.6 169 2 -187.5 212 2 -183.3 1987: III 930.1 944.4 413.3 422.3 110.5 107.7 53.9 55.0 352.4 359.4 1,068.4 1,104.9 386.3 391.4 414.2 422.5 101.9 101.4 143.8 149.5 22.6 39.7 .2 2 -138.3 160 4 III IV 951.0 983.0 975.5 991.5 404.6 425.0 408.3 415.8 107.2 111.7 113.1 113.8 55.9 55.9 ,57.1 57.9 383.4 390.3 397.0 404.0 1,106.1 1,116.3 1,099.0 1,149.0 377.7 382.2 367.7 396.3 434.4 437.6 440.7 447.5 111.1 110.4 111.5 113.0 149.9 152.1 154.9 158.9 33.0 34.0 24.1 33.3 .0 .0 .0 .0 -155.1 133 3 -123.5 157 5 1989: I r 1,041.1 449.1 115.5 58.3 418.1 1,180.6 397.6 458.7 118.9 169.0 36.3 .0 139 5 IV 1988: I II Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysi 34 INTERNATIONAL STATISTICS INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION AND CONSUMER PRICES—MAJOR INDUSTRIAL COUNTRIES Consumer prices (1982-84=100) Industrial production (1977 = 100; seasonally adjusted) Period United States Canada 108.6 111.0 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 103.1 109.2 121.4 123.7 125.1 129.8 137.2 104.8 106.9 96.5 102.7 115.2 121.4 123.2 129.6 137.2 135.4 136.1 136.5 138.0 138.5 138.6 139.4 139.9 140.4 136.1 137.3 137.9 137.4 138.7 138.8 137.8 137.1 r !37.9 T ' July , 3 Sept Oct Noy Dec May p 1 Japan France Germany 82.4 90.9 96.5 99.6 103.9 107.6 109.6 113.6 118.3 76.1 85.6 94.8 100.4 104.7 108.9 113.4 118.4 123.1 90.9 95.4 98.0 99.8 102.1 104.2 104.8 104.9 105.7 72.2 81.9 91.7 100.3 108.0 114.3 117.2 121.1 124.8 86.7 92.2 97.1 100.3 102.7 104.9 104.6 105.0 106.2 63.2 75.4 87.7 100.8 111.5 121.0 128.5 134.4 141.0 78.5 87.9 95.4 99.8 104.8 111.2 114.9 119.7 125.6 117.2 117.9 118.6 119.2 119.1 119.7 119.2 119.7 119.2 117.1 117.5 118.0 118.5 119.0 119.8 120.2 120.3 120.5 122.0 122.8 122.9 123.7 124.1 124.1 124.7 125.1 125.1 105.5 105.6 105.4 105.2 105.5 106.4 106.9 106.5 106.1 123.6 123.9 124.3 124.7 125.1 125.3 125.6 125.8 126.0 106.0 106.2 106.3 106.2 106.3 106.3 106.4 106.7 106.9 139.6 140.0 140.4 140.8 141.4 142.1 143.2 144.4 144.9 124.3 124.8 125.3 125.4 126.8 127.4 128.7 129.3 129.6 117.9 117.5 118.2 121.1 121.6 122.3 123.1 123.8 125.7 126.5 127.1 127.6 128.9 105.9 105.6 106.1 108.0 126.5 126.9 127.2 108.1 108.4 108.6 146.0 147.2 147.9 148.9 1495 129.3 131.4 132.0 134.3 Germany 119.0 120.3 120.7 124.5 136.1 141.0 140.8 145.7 159.1 107.2 106.1 105.0 105.0 106.1 106.1 107.2 109.4 108.0 105.9 102.7 103.3 106.2 111.0 113.0 113.7 118.1 114.8 113.0 109.5 105.9 109.5 110.7 113.7 118.3 124.3 99.8 96.7 98.5 102.2 102.4 107.9 110.2 114.1 118.2 157.0 153.3 158.4 156.4 160.8 161.6 160.2 165.0 166.1 112.2 112.9 114.9 116.0 116.0 117.2 113.2 r 118.0 r l!7.3 115.8 116.1 118.5 116.1 121.3 120.0 119.4 119.1 121.2 124.1 120.8 122.7 126.2 118.9 122.9 126.7 128.5 129.2 Italy 121.2 120.5 !21.3 124 1 r Data relate to all urban consumers. United Kingdom Canada France 140.8 137.2 167.3 rl!8.2 ' 140.5 ' 137.5 164.5 117.3 ' 140.6 137.2 r!72.5 116.2 '1414 168 1 141 4 1989- Jan Feb Mar United States ' Japan 1980 1981 1988- Apr May United Kingdom Italy Source: National sources as reported by Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis and International Trade Administration). U.S. MERCHANDISE EXPORTS AND IMPORTS [Billions of dollars; monthly data seasonally adjusted] Merchandise exports (t.a.s. value) l deneiaV merchandise imports (customs vahie) 3 Principal end-use commodity category 1988- Apr May , 3 July Sept Oct Nov Dec 1989- Jan Feb r Mar 4 4 Other 2 61.7 56.7 61.7 58.5 57.3 66.7 84.9 72.7 67.2 72.0 73.9 75.8 86.2 109.1 15.7 16.8 20.6 22.9 21.7 24.6 29.4 14.3 13.4 13.3 12.6 14.2 17.7 23.1 20.7 20.5 24.0 27.3 35.9 34.6 43.1 2.6 2.9 2.7 2.9 3.1 3.0 2.8 2.5 2.6 7.3 7.1 7.0 7.1 6.9 7.3 6.6 6.9 7.3 8.8 9.3 8.5 9.1 9.4 9.4 9.4 9.4 10.2 2.3 2.4 2.2 2.0 2.8 2.6 2.5 2.6 2.8 1.8 1.9 1.9 2.0 2.0 2.1 1.9 2.0 2.2 3.0 2.8 3.3 3.0 7.0 7.5 7.6 8.0 9.3 9.3 10.0 10.2 2.3 2.4 2.5 2.4 2.5 2.5 2.7 2.8 116.4 205.6 224.0 218.8 227.2 254.1 321.8 31.3 30.9 31.5 24.0 22.3 24.3 32.2 26.0 27.5 26.3 26.5 27.5 28.0 27.8 27.5 29.1 28.7 28.7 30.3 30.6 Total 1982... 1983 1984.... 1985 1986 1987 1988 Capital goods except automotive Consumer goods (nonfood) except automotive Foods, feeds, and beverages Period 2 Principal end-use commodity category Automotive vehicles, parts, and engines Industrial supplies and materials 1 Includes Department of Defense Military Assistance Program grant-aid shipments. 2 Includes undocumented exports to Canada. 3 Total arrivals of imported goods other than intransit shipments. 4 General merchandise imports (c.i.f. value) Exports (f.a.s) less imports (customs value) Exports (f.a.s) less imports (c.i.f.) -27.5 -52.4 101 7 -126.5 1383 -152.1 119 8 -38.4 -64.2 -122.4 -133.6 -155.1 -170.3 -138.4 36.S 37.2 39.5 36.0 39.8 38.7 38.1 39.8 41.7 88 -8.3 -11.7 -8.0 -10.6 -9.2 -8.8 10 7 -11.0 -10 .8 -9.8 -13.2 -9.5 -12.3 -10.7 -10.3 -12.2 -12.7 39.0 40.0 41.6 40.4 -8.7 -9.8 -9.5 -8.3 -10.2 -11.3 -11.2 -9.9 Poods feeds, and beverages Industrial supplies and materials Capital goods except automotive Automotive vehicles, parts, and engines Consumer goods (nonfood) except automotive 244.0 258.0 325.7 345.3 365.4 406.2 441.6 17.1 18.2 21.0 21.9 24.4 24.8 24.9 112.0 107.0 123.7 113.9 101.3 111.0 118.5 35.4 40.9 59.8 65.1 71.8 84.5 101.3 33.3 40.8 53.5 66.8 78.2 85.2 87.9 39.7 44.9 60.0 68.3 79.4 88.7 96.1 6.3 7.8 9.4 10.4 12.1 12.8 254.9 269.9 346.4 352.5 382.3 424.4 460.2 3.2 3.8 4.0 3.4 3.4 3.6 4.5 4.1 3.9 34.8 35.7 37.9 34.5 38.1 37.2 36.6 38.2 40.1 2.0 2.0 1.9 1.9 2.2 2.0 2.1 2.1 2.1 9,5 10.5 10.2 9.7 10.2 9.4 9.8 9.8 10.1 7.9 8.1 9.0 7.8 8.9 8.7 8.1 9.1 9.2 7.2 6.5 7.4 6.6 7.3 7.9 7.7 7.5 8.2 7.S 7.6 8.3 7.5 8.5 8.1 7.7 8.4 9.1 1.0 1.0 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.2 4.7 4.2 4.2 4.1 37.4 38.5 39.9 38.8 2.2 2.0 2.1 2.0 10.7 10.0 11.0 11.3 8.8 9.5 9.4 9.0 7.0 7.7 8.0 7.1 7.8 8.4 8.3 8.3 .9 1.0 1.1 1.1 Total exports are on a revised statistical month basis; end-use categories are on a statistical Trade Wante Total Other 6.5 month basis. NOTE.—Data shown include trade of the U.S. Virgin Islands. Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census/ 35 U.S. INTERNATIONAL TRANSACTIONS In the first quarter of 1989, the current account deficit rose to $30.7 billion, from $28.7 billion in the fourth quarter of 1988. (Series revised.) PH, \^-^~l 0 -5 x --\ -10 Vi v 0 fr -A \ '---/ -15 —5 V \\\ \N \ -10 -15 \ \ -20 V\ \\ ^ -20 BALANCE ON GOODS AND SERVICES ^ -25 -25 \X#V\Vx -30 \ -35 -40 1 1 1 1 I I 1982 1981 1 1 1 1983 A * '/ -30 ^* / -35 \ ^ \ S ^"7 ' BALANCE ON / X \ / •' CURRENT ACCOUNT MERCHANDISE TRADE "O-J / BALANCE >•-" -45 ^*\ ^\ ,/K A> I I I 1984 1 1 1 I I I 1985 1986 I I I I ' l l 1987 1988 -40 I I I -45 1989 • SEASONALLY ADJUS TED SOURCE: DEPARTMEN OF COMMERCE COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Millions of dollars; quarterly data seasonally adjusted. Credits ( + ), debits ( —)] Merchandise l z Investment income 3 Period Exports 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1986: I r II r. Ill r.... TV.... 1987: I r II T III r.... IV '.... 1988: Ir II r III r.... IV T .... 1989: I p Imports 224 269 237 085 122 198 201 820 219 900 215 935 223 367 250 266 319 251 53,899 56,796 56,182 56,490 57,255 60,015 64,297 68,699 76,447 78,471 80,604 83,729 88,496 — 249 749 265 063 — 247 642 268 900 — 332422 338 083 — 368425 409 766 —446 466 -89,549 -90,812 -92,983 -95,081 -95,916 -99,834 - 104,903 -109,113 -109,893 -109,882 -110,943 -115,748 -116,130 1 Net balance Receipts — 25480 72 506 27 978 86 412 — 36 444 83 548 67 080 77 251 112 522 85908 122 148 88 832 145 058 88 615 159 500 104 703 127 215 107 775 -35,650 23,970 -34,016 22,078 -36,801 21,744 -38,591 20,822 -38,661 25,117 -39,819 22,744 -40,606 23,578 -40,414 33,265 -33,446 26,750 -31,411 23,148 -30,339 24,720 -32,019 33,159 -27,634 26,862 Payments 42 119 30387 52 329 34 083 54 884 28 664 52 376 24 875 67 419 18489 62 901 25 931 66 968 21*647 82 420 22 283 2 227 105 548 -17,357 6,613 -17,533 4,545 -15,729 6,015 4,472 -16,350 5,362 -19,755 -20,554 2,190 -21,904 1,674 -20,207 13,058 2,795 -23,955 -25,613 -2,465 -27,310 -2,590 4,489 -28,670 -30,370 -3,508 Excludes military. Adjusted from Census data for differences in timing and coverage. Fees and royalties from U.S. direct investments abroad or from foreign direct investments in the United States are excluded from investment income and included in other services, net. 2 3 36 Net Net military transactions Net travel and transportation receipts 2 577 1 523 474 343 2 099 3 557 4 576 2 857 4 606 -1,411 -1,298 -1,089 -777 -176 -210 -1,031 -1,440 -964 -1,033 -1,006 -1,604 -1,482 —997 144 992 4 227 7 885 9 832 8 031 7 324 2 633 -2,452 -1,465 -1,874 -2,241 -1,965 -2,088 -1,279 -1,993 -1,854 -719 -155 94 —464 Other services, net 3 Balance on goods and services Remittances, pensions, and other unilateral transfers ' Balance on current account 1 533 9 126 — 7 593 7 794 8 163 7 647 15 810 11 085 — 6997 2 191 — 9 188 11 436 44 286 9 776 12 264 34 510 104 186 12 299 91 718 — 12 468 112 682 15 426 12 351 97 256 18*547 — 117 470 — 15 778 — 133 249 14 212 143 700 17 909 129 488 126 548 20335 — 111 892 — 14 656 4,620 -28,280 -3,068 -31,348 -27,653 -4,199 -31,852 4,581 -29,210 -4,376 -33,586 4,539 -4,136 -36,466 -32,330 4,807 -34,327 4,250 -31,190 -3,137 4,372 -35,555 -3,265 -38,820 4,555 -36,687 -3,225 -39,912 4,734 -26,055 -4,586 -30,641 -32,046 4,787 -28,682 -3,364 5,042 -30,586 -2,899 -33,485 -28,964 -3,376 -32,340 5,126 -23,659 -5,018 -28,677 5,381 5,823 -27,265 -3,420 -30,685 Note.—Series revised beginning 1980. Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. U.S. INTERNATIONAL TRANSACTIONS—Continued In the capital accounts, claims on foreigners reported by U.S. banks increased $22.6 billion in the first quarter of 1989, compared with an increase of $30.9 billion in the fourth quarter of 1988. Liabilities to private foreigners reported by U.S. banks, excluding Treasury securities, increased $10.4 billion in the first quarter, compared with an increase of $32.2 billion in the fourth quarter. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* 20 20 -20 -20 -40 -40 1989 •SEASONALLY ADJUSTED SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Millions of dollars; quarterly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted] U.S. assets abroad, net [increase/capita Period Total U.S. official reservez assets l -86,118 -110,951 -121,153 -49,777 -22,304 -32,628 -99,665 -76,218 -82,110 -8,155 -5,175 -4,965 1 196 -3,131 3 858 312 9,149 -3,566 -15,401 -24,763 -26,078 -33,422 -115 16 280 132 8,759 -22,632 -25,976 -36,370 1,956 3,419 32 3,742 4,540 -16,119 m ... -37,886 IV ".... -32,648 1989: I" -31,816 1,503 39 -7,380 2,272 1980 1981 . 1982 1983 1984 1985 . 1986 1987 1988 1986: I r r II Ill r... IV r.... 1987: I r II r Ill r... IV '.... 1988: I ' II r r -4,000 Other U.S. Government assets Foreign assets in the U.S., net [increase /capital inflow ( + )] 2 U.S. private assets -5,162 — 72,802 -5,097 - 100,679 -6,131 110058 5 006 -43,576 -5,489 -13,685 2 821 -25,950 -2,024 -97,954 997 -86,363 2,999 -81,543 -232 - 15,054 238 -24,541 -1,565 -24,793 11 -33,565 40 6,763 195 -25,856 308 -26,316 843 40,955 -1,490 4,528 -885 -15,273 1,961 -32,467 3,413 -38,332 1,012 -28,828 - Total Other foreign assets Total (sum of the items with sign reversed) 0! which: Seasonal adjustment discrepancy U.S. official reserve assets, net 1 (unadjusted, end of period) 26,756 30,074 33,958 33,747 34,934 43,186 48,511 45,798 47,802 25,322 18,663 34,404 9,194 23,869 15,298 11,308 1,878 -10,641 58,112 83,032 93,746 84,869 102,621 130,012 221,605 218,039 219,299 15,497 4,960 3,593 5,845 3,140 1 083 35,594 45,193 38,882 42,615 78,072 90,154 79,023 99,481 131,096 186,011 172,847 180,418 39,048 50,291 69,927 62,339 2,720 15,838 15,785 1,251 36,328 34,453 54,142 61,088 7,701 6,324 -10,263 7,549 3,515 -3,306 4,669 4,463 44,919 46,595 48,087 48,511 33,381 51,134 73,575 59,949 14,040 10,329 753 20,070 19,341 40,805 72,822 39,879 -7,813 10,318 -7,687 7,062 3,895 -2,559 4501 3,166 48,824 45,140 45,070 45,798 27,027 65,334 46,179 80,759 24,631 5,895 -2,234 10,589 2,396 59,438 48,413 70,170 479 -15,729 24,047 — 19,434 3,843 -3,714 -4,556 4,431 43,186 41,028 47,788 47,802 49,077 6,914 42,163 13,424 4,264 49,854 1 Consists of gold, special drawing rights (SDKs), convertible currencies, and the U.S. reserve osition in the IMF. 2 Quarterly data are not seasonally adjusted. Foreign official assets Statistical discrepancy Allocations of special drawing rights (SDKs) 1,152 1,093 NOTE.—Series revised beginning 1980. Sources: Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis) and Department of the Treasury. 37 Contents TOTAL OUTPUT, INCOME, AND SPENDING p*ge Gross National Product Gross National Product in 1982 Dollars Implicit Price Deflators for Gross National Product Changes in GNP, Personal Consumption Expenditures, and Related Price Measures Nonfinancial Corporate Business—Output, Costs, and Profits National Income Personal Consumption Expenditures Sources of Personal Income Disposition of Personal Income Farm Income Corporate Profits Gross Private Domestic Investment Expenditures for New Plant and Equipment 1 2 2 3 3 4 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 EMPLOYMENT, UNEMPLOYMENT, AND WAGES Status of the Labor Force Selected Unemployment Rates Selected Measures of Unemployment and Unemployment Insurance Programs Nonagricultural Employment Average Weekly Hours, Hourly Earnings, and Weekly Earnings—Private Nonagricultural Industries Employment Cost Index—Private Industry Productivity and Related Data, Business Sector 11 12 13 14 15 15 16 PRODUCTION AND BUSINESS ACTIVITY Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization Industrial Production—Major Market Groups and Selected Manufactures New Construction New Private Housing and Vacancy Rates Business Sales and Inventories—Manufacturing and Trade Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories, and Orders 17 18 19 19 20 21 PRICES Producer Prices Consumer Prices—All Urban Consumers Changes in Producer Prices for Finished Goods Changes in Consumer Prices—All Urban Consumers Prices Received and Paid by Farmers 22 23 24 24 25 MONEY, CREDIT, AND SECURITY MARKETS Money Stock, Liquid Assets, and Debt Measures Components of Money Stock and Liquid Assets Aggregate Reserves and Monetary Base Bank Loans and Securities Sources and Uses of Funds, Nonfarm Nonfinancial Corporate Business Consumer Installment Credit Interest Rates and Bond Yields Common Stock Prices and Yields 26 27 27 28 29 29 30 31 FEDERAL FINANCE Federal Receipts, Outlays, and Debt Federal Receipts by Source and Outlays by Function Federal Sector, National Income Accounts Basis 32 33 34 INTERNATIONAL STATISTICS Industrial Production and Consumer Prices—Major Industrial Countries U.S. Merchandise Exports and Imports U.S. International Transactions 35 35 36 General Notes Detail in these tables may not add to totals because of founding. Unless otherwise noted, all dollar figures are in current dollars. Symbols used: p Preliminary. 'Revised. c Corrected. ... Not available (also, not applicable). NSA not seasonally adjusted. For sale by the Superintendent of Documents, U.S. Government Printing Office, Washington, D.C. 20402. Price $2.25 (single copy) ($2.81 foreign). Subscription price: $24.00 per year; $30.00 for foreign mailing. 38 U.S. GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE : 1989 0—99-555