Interest Rates and Bond Yields

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The following is plain-text output generated by Optical Character Recognition. 113th Congress 1st Session Economic Indicators OCTOBER 2013 Includes data available as of November Prepared for the Joint Economic Committee by the Council of Economic Advisers UNITED STATES GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE WASHINGTON JOINT ECONOMIC COMMITTEE Created pursuant to Sec 5 a of Public Law 304 79th Cong Kevin Brady Texas Chairman Amy Klobuchar Minnesota Vice Chairman House of Representatives John Campbell California Sean P Duffy Wisconsin Justin Amash Michigan Erik Paulsen Minnesota Richard L Hanna New York Carolyn B Maloney New York Loretta Sanchez California Elijah E Cummings Maryland John Delaney Maryland Senate Robert P Casey Jr Pennsylvania Mark R Warner Virginia Bernard Sanders Vermont Christopher Murphy Connecticut Martin Heinrich New Mexico Dan Coats Indiana Mike Lee Utah Roger F Wicker Mississippi Pat Toomey Pennsylvania Robert P O Quinn Executive Director COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS Jason Furman Chairman Betsey Stevenson Member James Stock Member Public Law 120 81st Congress Chapter 237 1st Session JOINT RESOLUTION S J R es 55 To print the monthly publication entitled Economic Indicators Resolved by the Senate and House of Representatives of the United States of America in Congress assembled That the Joint Economic Committee be authorized to issue a monthly publication entitled Economic Indicators and that a sufficient quantity be printed to furnish one copy to each Member of Congress the Secretary and the Sergeant at Arms of the Senate the Clerk Sergeant at Arms and Doorkeeper of the House of Representatives two copies to the libraries of the Senate and House and the Congressional Library seven hundred copies to the Joint Economic Committee and the required numbers of copies to the Superintendent of Documents for distribution to depository libraries and that the Superintendent of Documents be authorized to have copies printed for sale to the public Approved June Charts prepared under the direction of the Mail and Multimedia Division Office of the Secretary Department of Commerce Monthly issues of Economic Indicators in PDF form and tables in Excel are available online at www gpo gov economicindicators To subscribe to the print edition 58 00 per year 81 20 outside the United States contact the U S Government Printing Office at www gpo gov economicindicators or SUPERINTENDENT OF DOCUMENTS U S GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE MAIL STOP IDCC WASHINGTON DC ii TOTAL OUTPUT INCOME AND SPENDING Gross Domestic Product In the third quarter of 2013 according to advance estimates current dollar gross domestic product GDP rose 4 8 percent annual rate real GDP in chained 2009 dollars rose 2 8 percent and the chained price index rose 1 9 percent Billions of current dollars quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates Period I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II p III Gross domestic product Personal consumption expenditures Gross private domestic investment Exports and imports of goods and services Net exports Government consumption expenditures and gross investment Federal Exports GDP less exports of goods and services plus imports of goods and services Imports Total Total National defense Nondefense State and local Final Addendum Gross sales of Gross domestic domestic purchases 1 national product product Source Department of Commerce Bureau of Economic Analysis 1 Real Gross Domestic Product Billions of chained 2009 dollars quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates Period I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II p III Gross private domestic investment Personal Gross conChange domestic sumption Nonresi Resiin product expendi dential dential fixed fixed private tures investinvestinvenment ment tories Exports and imports of goods and services Government consumption expenditures and gross investment Federal Net exports Exports Imports Total GDP less exports of goods and services plus imports of goods and services National Nondefense defense Total AddenFinal Gross dum sales of domestic Gross domestic purchases 1 national product product State and local Source Department of Commerce Bureau of Economic Analysis Note Because of the formula used for calculating real GDP the chained 2009 dollar estimates for the detailed components do not add to the chained dollar value of GDP or to any intermediate aggregates Chained Price Indexes For Gross Domestic Product Index numbers quarterly data are seasonally adjusted Period I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II p III Gross domestic product Personal consumption expenditures Total Goods Gross private domestic investment Services Nonresidential fixed Residential fixed Exports and imports of goods and services Government consumption expenditures and gross investment Federal Exports Imports Total National defense Source Department of Commerce Bureau of Economic Analysis 2 Nondefense State and local Gross Domestic Product and Related Price Measures Indexes and Percent Changes Quarterly data are seasonally adjusted Percent change from preceding period 1 Index numbers Personal consumption expenditures PCE Gross domestic product GDP Period I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II p III Real GDP chain type quantity index GDP chain type price index GDP implicit price deflator PCE chain type price index PCE less food and energy price index Quarterly percent changes are at annual rates Personal consumption expenditures PCE Gross domestic product GDP GDP current dollars Real GDP chain type quantity index GDP chain type price index GDP implicit price deflator PCE chain type price index PCE less food and energy price index Source Department of Commerce Bureau of Economic Analysis Nonfinancial Corporate Business Gross Value Added and Price Costs and Profits Quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates Period Current dollars I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II Price per unit of real gross value added of nonfinancial corporate business dollars 1 2 Gross value added of nonfinancial corporate business billions of dollars Chained 2009 dollars Total Compensation of employees unit labor cost Corporate profits with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments 4 Unit nonlabor cost Total Consumption of fixed capital Net interest Taxes on and production miscellaneous and imports 3 payments Total Taxes on corporate income Profits after tax Estimates for nonfinancial corporate business are based on the North American Industry Clas4 Unit profits from current production 5 With inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments sification System NAICS 2 The implicit price deflator for gross value added of nonfinancial corporate business divided by 100 Source Department of Commerce Bureau of Economic Analysis 3 Less subsidies plus business current transfer payments 3 National Income Billions of dollars quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates Proprietors income 1 Period ComNational pensation of income employees I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II p III Rental income of persons with capital conNonfarm sumption adjustment Farm Corporate profits with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments Net interest and Capital miscelconsumption laneous Inventory adjust payments valuation ment adjustment Taxes on production and imports Profits with inventory valuation adjustment and without capital consumption adjustment Total Total Profits before tax With inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments Business Less current Subsidies transfer payments Current surplus of government enterprises Source Department of Commerce Bureau of Economic Analysis Real Personal Consumption Expenditures Billions of chained 2009 dollars except as noted quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates Goods Period Total personal consumption expenditures I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II p III Services Durable Total goods Total durable goods Nondurable Motor vehicles and parts Total nondurable goods Food and beverages purchased for offpremises consumption Gasoline and other energy goods Total services 1 Household consumption expenditures Includes other items not shown separately 2 Food consists of food and beverages purchased for off premises consumption food services which include purchased meals and beverages are not classified as food Housing and utilities Health care Financial services and insurance Retail sales of new passenger cars and light trucks millions of units Note Because of the formula used for calculating real GDP the chained 2009 dollar estimates for the detailed components do not add to the chained dollar value of GDP or to any intermediate aggregates Source Department of Commerce Bureau of Economic Analysis Addendum Personal consumption expenditures excluding food and energy 2 Sources of Personal Income Personal income rose 67 4 billion annual rate in September following an increase of 65 6 billion in August Wages and salaries rose 27 5 billion in September following an increase of 37 2 billion in August Billions of dollars monthly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates Compensation of employees Period Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May June r July r Aug Sept p Total personal income Total Wages and salaries With inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments 2 With capital consumption adjustment 3 Consists mainly of social insurance benefits to persons Supplements to wages and salaries Proprietors income 1 Farm Nonfarm Personal income receipts on assets Rental income of persons Total Personal interest income Personal dividend income Personal current transfer receipts Less Contributions for government social insurance domestic Source Department of Commerce Bureau of Economic Analysis 5 Disposition of Personal Income According to advance estimates per capita disposable personal income in chained 2009 dollars rose 1 8 percent annual rate in the third quarter of 2013 Period Personal income Less Personal current taxes Equals Disposable personal income Less Personal outlays 1 Equals Personal saving Disposable personal income in billions of chained 2009 dollars Current dollars Billions of dollars Per capita personal consumption expenditures Per capita disposable personal income Chained 2009 dollars Current dollars Chained 2009 dollars Dollars Percent Saving change as in real percent per capita of disposable disposable personal personal income income Population including Armed Forces overseas thousands 2 Percent Seasonally adjusted annual rates 2010 I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II p III Includes personal consumption expenditures personal interest payments nonmortgage and personal current transfer payments 2 Annual data are averages of quarterly data which are averages for the period Source Department of Commerce Bureau of Economic Analysis and Bureau of the Census Real Farm Income According to the forecast for 2013 gross farm income in chained 2009 dollars is forecast to be 446 1 billion and net farm income to be 113 3 billion Billions of chained 2009 dollars Income of farm operators from farming 1 Gross farm income Year Value of farm sector production Total p p Crops 3 4 Total The GDP chain type price index is used to convert the current dollar statistics to equivalents 2 Value of production Government payments other farm related cash income and nonmoney income produced by farms including imputed rent of farm dwellings 3 Crop receipts include proceeds received from commodities placed under Commodity Credit Corporation loans Livestock Forestry and services Direct Government payments Production expenses Net farm income The value of production equates to the sum of cash receipts home consumption and the value of the change in inventories Note Data for 2013 are forecasts Source Department of Agriculture Economic Research Service 7 Corporate Profits In the second quarter of 2013 according to revised estimates corporate profits before tax rose 46 6 billion annual rate and profits after tax rose 36 6 billion Billions of dollars quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates Profits before tax with inventory valuation adjustment 1 Profits after tax Domestic industries Period Total 2 Profits before tax Nonfinancial Total Financial Total 3 Manufacturing Utilities Wholesale Taxes on corporate income Total Retail I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III 1 See p 4 for profits with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments 2 Includes rest of the world not shown separately 3 Includes industries not shown separately 8 Net dividends Inventory Undistrib valuation adjustment uted profits p Note Data by industry are based on the North American Industry Classification System NAICS Source Department of Commerce Bureau of Economic Analysis Real Gross Private Domestic Investment In the third quarter of 2013 according to advance estimates nonresidential fixed investment in chained 2009 dollars rose 7 9 billion annual rate and residential investment rose 16 9 billion Inventories rose 86 0 billion following an increase of 56 6 billion in the second quarter Billions of chained 2009 dollars quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates Fixed investment Period I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II p III Gross private domestic investment Change in private inventories Nonresidential Total Total Note See p 10 for further detail on fixed investment by type Because of the formula used for calculating real GDP the chained 2009 dollar estimates for the detailed components do not add to the chained dollar value of GDP or to any intermediate aggregates Structures Equipment Intellectual property products Residential Total Nonfarm Source Department of Commerce Bureau of Economic Analysis 9 Real Private Fixed Investment by Type Billions of chained 2009 dollars quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates Nonresidential Equipment Total fixed investment Period I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II p III Residential Total nonresidential Intellectual property products Information processing equipment Structures Total Computers and peripheral equipment 1 Total Other Industrial Transportation equipequipment ment Total 2 Software Research and development Structures Total residential Total Single family Because computers exhibit rapid changes in prices relative to other prices in the economy the 2 Includes other items not shown separately 3 Research and development investment excludes expenditures for software development chained dollar estimates should not be used to measure the component s relative importance or its contribution to the growth rate of more aggregate series The quantity index for computers can be Note Because of the formula used for calculating real GDP the chained 2009 dollar estimates used to accurately measure the real growth rate of this series For information on this component for the detailed components do not add to the chained dollar value of GDP or to any intermediate see Survey of Current Business Table 5 3 1 for growth rates Table 5 3 2 for contributions and aggregates Table 5 3 3 for quantity indexes Source Department of Commerce Bureau of Economic Analysis Business Investment Billions of dollars Capital expenditures By industry Period Total capital expenditures Forestry Total fishing by and agri Mining industry cultural services ConUtilities struction Manufacturing Wholesale trade Retail trade Transportation Informa Finance and and tion insurwareance housing ProfesReal sional estate scienand tific rental and and leasing technical services Health care and social assistance Other 1 For companies without employees For companies with employees Includes the following industries Management of companies and enterprises administrative Note Data from Annual Capital Expenditures Industry data are based on the North American and support and waste management educational services arts entertainment and recreation Industry Classification System NAICS accommodation and food services and other services except public administration Also includes Data shown in this table are capital expenditures for both new and used structures and an item for structure and equipment expenditures serving multiple industry categories equipment Source Department of Commerce Bureau of the Census 10 EMPLOYMENT UNEMPLOYMENT AND WAGES Status of the Labor Force In October employment as measured by the household survey fell 735 000 and unemployment rose Thousands of persons 16 years of age and over except as noted monthly data seasonally adjusted except as noted by NSA Period Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Civilian noninstitutional population NSA Civilian employment Civilian labor force Total Men 20 years and over Women 20 years and over Percent 1 Unemployment Both sexes 16 19 years Civilian labor force or employment as percent of civilian noninstitutional population and unemployment as percent of civilian labor force 2 Not strictly comparable with earlier data Total Men 20 years and over Women 20 years and over Both sexes 16 19 years Not in labor force Labor force participation rate Employment population ratio Unemployment rate Note Beginning January 2013 data reflect revised population controls and are not strictly comparable with earlier data See Employment and Earnings for details on breaks in series Source Department of Labor Bureau of Labor Statistics 11 Selected Unemployment Rates In October the unemployment rate rose to 7 3 Monthly data seasonally adjusted Unemployment rate percent of civilian labor force in group By race or ethnicity 1 By sex and age Period Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct All civilian workers Men 20 years and over Women 20 years and over Both sexes 16 19 years White Beginning in 2003 persons who selected this race group only Prior to 2003 persons who reported more than one race were included in the group they identified as the main race Persons whose ethnicity is identified as Hispanic or Latino may be of any race 12 Black or African American By selected groups Hispanic or Latino ethnicity Asian NSA Married men spouse present Women who maintain families NSA Note Data relate to persons age 16 years and over Source Department of Labor Bureau of Labor Statistics Full time workers Part time workers Selected Measures of Unemployment and Unemployment Insurance Programs In October the percentages of the unemployed who had been out of work for 5 to 14 weeks 15 to 26 weeks and 27 weeks and over fell while the percentage for less than 5 weeks rose The mean duration of unemployment fell to 36 1 weeks and the median duration remained at 16 3 weeks Monthly data seasonally adjusted except as noted by NSA Duration of unemployment Period Unemployment thousands Percent distribution Less than 5 weeks 5 14 weeks weeks Reason for unemployment percent distribution Number of weeks 27 weeks and over Average mean 1 Median Job losers Job leavers Reentrants New entrants State programs Insured unemployment NSA Initial claims NSA Insured unemployment all programs NSA 2 Weekly average thousands Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Beginning January 2011 includes unemployment durations of up to 5 years prior data are for up to 2 years 2 Includes State 50 States District of Columbia Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands Federal UCFE ex service members UCX and Federal and State extended benefit programs Also includes Temporary Extended Unemployment Compensation Emergency Unemployment Compensation and Federal Additional Compensation r r 4 001 r r 3 566 r r 3 647 r r 3 408 r 361 r r 2 928 r 347 r r 2 951 r 341 r Note Data relate to persons age 16 years and over except for insured unemployment and initial claims Source Department of Labor Bureau of Labor Statistics and Employment and Training Administration 13 Nonagricultural Employment Total nonagricultural employment as measured by the payroll survey rose by 204 000 in October Thousands of wage and salary workers 1 monthly data seasonally adjusted Private industries Period Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July r Aug Sept r p Oct Total nonagricultural employment Goods producing industries Total private Total Construc Manufaction turing Private service providing industries Trade transportation and utilities Total Total Data from the establishment survey Includes all full and part time wage and salary workers in nonagricultural establishments who received pay for any part of the pay period that includes the 12th of the month Excludes proprietors self employed persons unpaid family workers and private household workers Data from the household survey shown on p 11 include those workers and also count persons as employed when they are not at work because of industrial disputes bad weather etc even if they are not paid for the time off In the series shown here persons who work at more than one job are counted each time they appear on a payroll in contrast to the series shown on p 11 where persons are counted only once as employed unemployed or not in the labor force See Employment and Earnings for details 14 Retail trade Information Financial activities Profes Education Leisure sional and and and health business services hospitality services Other services Government Includes mining and logging not shown separately 3 Includes wholesale trade transportation and warehousing and utilities not shown separately Note Data classified by industry based on the 2012 North American Industry Classification System NAICS For details see Employment and Earnings Source Department of Labor Bureau of Labor Statistics Average Weekly Hours Hourly Earnings and Weekly Earnings Private Nonagricultural Industries For production or nonsupervisory workers monthly data seasonally adjusted Average weekly hours Total private nonagricultural 1 Period Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July r Aug Sept r p Oct Average gross hourly earnings Total private nonagricultural 1 Manufacturing Total Overtime Current dollars Average gross weekly earnings Total private nonagricultural 1 Manufacturing dollars Current dollars Also includes other private industry groups shown on p 14 2 Current dollar earnings divided by the consumer price index for urban wage earners and cleri Percent change from a year earlier total private nonagricultural Current dollars dollars 2 Manufacturing Construction Retail trade Current dollars dollars Source Department of Labor Bureau of Labor Statistics cal workers CPI W on a base Employment Cost Index Private Industry Index December Period Total compensation Wages and salaries Percent change from 3 months earlier Benefits 1 Total compensation 12 months earlier Wages and salaries Benefits 1 Total compensation Wages and salaries Benefits 1 Not seasonally adjusted 2003 Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Seasonally adjusted 2010 Mar June Sept Dec Mar June Sept Dec Mar June Sept Dec Mar June Employer costs for employee benefits Not seasonally adjusted Source Department of Labor Bureau of Labor Statistics Note The employment cost index is a measure of the change in the cost of labor free from the influence of employment shifts among occupations and industries Data exclude farm and household workers 15 Productivity and Related Data Business and Nonfarm Business Sectors Output per hour of all persons Period Business sector Nonfarm business sector Hours of all persons 2 Output 1 Business sector Nonfarm business sector Business sector Nonfarm business sector Compensation per hour 3 Business sector Nonfarm business sector Real compensation per hour 4 Business sector Nonfarm business sector Unit labor costs Implicit price deflator 5 Business sector Nonfarm business sector Business sector Nonfarm business sector Indexes quarterly data seasonally adjusted I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II Percent change quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II Output refers to real gross domestic product originating in the sector 2 Hours of all persons engaged in the sector including hours of proprietors and unpaid family workers Estimates based primarily on establishment data 3 Wages and salaries of employees plus employers contributions for social insurance and private benefit plans Also includes an estimate of wages salaries and supplemental payments for the self employed 4 Hourly compensation divided by the consumer price index for all urban consumers CPI U for recent quarters The trend from is based on the consumer price index research series CPI U RS 5 Current dollar gross domestic output divided by the output index Note Data relate to all persons engaged in the sector Percent changes are from preceding period and are based on original data they therefore may differ slightly from percent changes based on indexes shown here Data based on GDP data released on August Source Department of Labor Bureau of Labor Statistics PRODUCTION AND BUSINESS ACTIVITY Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization Industrial production and capacity utilization rose in September Monthly data seasonally adjusted Total industrial production 1 Period Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar r Apr May r June r r July r Aug Sept p Industry production indexes Percent change 2 Index From preceding month Capacity utilization rate output as percent of capacity 1 Manufacturing From year earlier Total 1 Durable Total industry and total manufacturing series include manufacturing as defined in the North American Industry Classification System NAICS plus those industries logging and newspaper periodical book and directory publishing that have traditionally been included in manufacturing 2 Percent changes based on unrounded indexes Nondurable Other non NAICS Mining Utilities Total industry Total manufacturing Note Data based on NAICS except series as defined in footnote 1 Source Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System 17 Industrial Production Major Market Groups and Selected Manufactures monthly data seasonally adjusted Products and nonindustrial supplies Materials Final products Consumer goods Period Total Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar r Apr May r June r r July r Aug Sept p Nonindustrial supplies Total Durable goods Equipment Nondurable goods Total Business Defense and space Total Construction Business Total Energy Includes other items not shown separately monthly data seasonally adjusted Durable manufactures Computer and electronic products Primary metals Period Total Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar r Apr May r June r r July r Aug Sept p Iron and steel products Fabricated metal products Machinery Total Computers and peripheral equipment communications equipment and semiconductors and related electronic components 18 Nondurable manufactures Selected high technology Transportation equipment Total Motor vehicles and parts Apparel Printing and support Source Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System Chemical Food New Construction Billions of dollars monthly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates Private Period Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July p Aug Total new construction expenditures Residential Total New housing Total Federal and State and local Nonresidential Total Lodging Includes residential improvements not shown separately 2 Includes health care educational communication and power among other categories not Commercial including farm Office Manufacturing Other Source Department of Commerce Bureau of the Census shown separately New Private Housing and Vacancy Rates Thousands of units or houses except as noted New private housing units Units started by type of structure Period Total New private houses 2 4 units 1 1 unit Units authorized 5 units or more Units completed Houses for sale at end of period 2 Houses sold Vacancy rate for rental housing units percent Seasonally adjusted annual rates 2012 Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July p Aug Monthly data do not meet publication standards because tests for identifiable and stable seasonality do not meet reliability standards 2 Seasonally adjusted 3 Revised series Quarterly data entered in last month of quarter 4 Based on 20 000 permit issuing places Based on 19 000 places the total for 2004 is 2 052 1 thousand units Note Beginning 2004 units authorized are for 20 000 permit issuing places For other data shown units authorized are for 19 000 places Source Department of Commerce Bureau of the Census 19 Business Sales and Inventories Manufacturing and Trade In August according to preliminary estimates manufacturing and trade sales rose 0 3 percent while inventories rose 5 6 billion According to advance estimates retail sales fell 0 2 percent in September Retail and food services sales fell 0 1 percent Millions of dollars except ratios seasonally adjusted except as noted Manufacturing and trade 1 Period Sales 2 Inventories 3 Inventory sales ratio 4 Wholesale Sales 2 Inventories 3 Retail Inventory sales ratio Aug r r Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May June r July p Aug p Sept 1 See page 21 for manufacturing 2 Annual data are averages of monthly not seasonally adjusted figures monthly data are seasonally adjusted totals for month 20 Sales 2 Inventories 3 Inventory sales ratio r Seasonally adjusted end of period 4 Annual data are averages of seasonally adjusted monthly ratios Source Department of Commerce Bureau of the Census Retail and food services sales r Manufacturers Shipments Inventories and Orders In September manufacturers shipments inventories new orders and unfilled orders rose Manufacturers shipments 1 Manufacturers inventories 2 Manufacturers new orders 1 Durable goods Period Total Durable goods Nondurable goods Total Durable goods Nondurable goods Total Total Capital goods industries nondefense Manufacturers unfilled orders 2 Manufacturers inventory shipments ratio 3 Millions of dollars seasonally adjusted except as noted Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May June r July r Aug Sept p Annual data are averages of monthly not seasonally adjusted figures monthly data are seasonally adjusted totals for month Shipments are the same as sales 2 Seasonally adjusted end of period 3 Annual data are averages of seasonally adjusted monthly ratios Note Manufacturers nondurable new orders not shown are the same as nondurable shipments Also there are no unfilled nondurable orders data shown for total unfilled orders are durable unfilled orders Total and durable shipments and inventories include data on semiconductors new and unfilled orders do not Source Department of Commerce Bureau of the Census 21 PRICES Producer Prices The producer price index for all finished goods fell 0 1 percent in September Prices of finished consumer foods fell 1 0 percent while prices of other finished consumer goods rose 0 1 percent Capital equipment prices rose 0 3 percent monthly data seasonally adjusted Finished goods Intermediate materials Finished goods excluding consumer foods Period Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May r June July Aug Sept Total finished goods Consumer foods Consumer goods Total Intermediate materials for food manufacturing and feeds 22 Total Durable Nondurable Capital equipment Total finished consumer goods Total Foods and feeds Crude materials Other Source Department of Labor Bureau of Labor Statistics Total Foodstuffs and feedstuffs Other Consumer Prices All Urban Consumers In September the consumer price index for all urban consumers rose 0 2 percent it rose 0 1 percent before seasonal adjustment The index was 1 2 percent above its year earlier level except as noted monthly data seasonally adjusted except as noted by NSA All items 1 Housing Transportation Shelter Period Rel imp Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Not seasonally Seasonally adjusted adjusted NSA Food Total Total Owners Rent equivalent of rent primary residence Dec Includes items not shown separately 2 Beginning January 2010 includes expenditure weight for second homes Prior data are for primary residence only 3 Household fuels gas piped electricity fuel oil etc and motor fuel Fuels and utilities Apparel Total 1 Motor fuel Medical care Energy All items less food and energy Relative importance August 2013 Source Department of Labor Bureau of Labor Statistics 23 Changes in Producer Prices for Finished Goods Percent change from preceding period monthly data seasonally adjusted except as noted by NSA Change from preceding period Change from 6 months earlier annual rate Consumer goods Period Change from 3 months earlier annual rate Consumer goods Consumer goods Total finished goods Foods Total finished goods Foods Excluding foods r r Capital equipment Excluding foods Change from year earlier total finished goods NSA Capital equipment Total finished goods Foods Excluding foods r Capital equipment Change Dec to Dec NSA Change month to month 2012 Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May r June July Aug Sept r r Source Department of Labor Bureau of Labor Statistics Changes in Consumer Prices All Urban Consumers Percent change from preceding period monthly data seasonally adjusted except as noted by NSA Housing Period All items 1 Shelter Food Total 1 Total 1 Addendum All items percent change annual rate Transportation Fuels Rent Ownand of ers primary equiva utilities resilent dence rent Apparel Total 1 New cars Motor fuel Medical care Energy 2 All items less food and energy From previous quarter 3 From From 3 6 months months earlier earlier From year earlier NSA Change December to December NSA Change month to month 2012 Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Includes items not shown separately 2 Household fuels gas piped electricity fuel oil etc and motor fuel Quarterly changes are shown in the last month of the quarter Source Department of Labor Bureau of Labor Statistics Prices Received and Paid by Farmers In October prices paid by farmers rose 0 5 percent and prices received by farmers also rose 0 5 percent Data are not seasonally adjusted not seasonally adjusted Prices received by farmers Period Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May June r July Aug Sept r p Oct All farm products Includes items not shown separately 2 Percentage ratio of index of prices received by farmers to index of prices paid interest taxes and wage rates All commodities services interest taxes and wage rates 1 Livestock and products Crops Prices paid by farmers Production items interest taxes and wage rates Ratio 2 Production items Note The official indexes are published on a base as required by law The indexes have been converted to a base to facilitate comparison with other indexes Source Department of Agriculture 25 MONEY CREDIT AND SECURITY MARKETS Money Stock and Debt Measures In September M2 rose Averages of daily figures except debt end of period basis billions of dollars seasonally adjusted M1 Period Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May June r July Aug Sept r M2 Sum of currency demand deposits travelers checks and other checkable deposits OCDs Debt M1 plus retail MMMF balances savings deposits including MMDAs and small time deposits Quarterly data shown in last month of quarter End of year data are for fourth quarter Consists of outstanding credit market debt of the U S Government State and local governments and private nonfinancial sectors data from flow of funds accounts 2 Annual changes are from December to December and monthly changes are from 6 months earlier at a simple annual rate 3 Annual changes are from fourth quarter to fourth quarter Quarterly changes are from previous quarter at an annual rate 26 Debt of domestic nonfinancial sectors Percent change From year or 6 months earlier 2 M1 From previous period 3 M Debt Note The Federal Reserve no longer publishes the M3 monetary aggregate and most of its components Institutional money market mutual funds continue to be published as a memorandum item in the H 6 release and the component on large denomination time deposits is published in other Federal Reserve Board releases For details see H 6 release of March See p 27 for components Source Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System Components of Money Stock Averages of daily figures billions of dollars seasonally adjusted Period Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May r June r r July r Aug Sept r Currency Nonbank travelers checks Other checkable deposits OCDs Demand deposits At commercial banks Total Savings deposits 1 At thrift institutions Savings deposits including money market deposit accounts MMDAs 2 Small denomination deposits are those issued in amounts of less than Institutional money funds are not part of non M1 M2 Total At commercial banks Small denomination time deposits 2 At thrift institutions At commercial banks Total Retail money funds At thrift institutions Institutional money funds Note See Note p 26 Source Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System Aggregate Reserves and Monetary Base Averages of daily figures 1 millions of dollars not seasonally adjusted Reserves of depository institutions Reserve balances maintained Period Total Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept r To satisfy reserve balance requirements 2 That exceed the top of the penalty free band Reserve balance requirements Borrowings from the Federal Reserve Vault cash used to satisfy required reserves Data are prorated averages of biweekly maintenance period averages of daily figures 2 Equals the sum of balances maintained up to the top of each institution s penalty free band 3 Excludes vault cash used to satisfy required reserves 4 The amount of vault cash held by institutions whose required reserves exceed their vault Nonborrowed Monetary base Total Primary Secondary Seasonal Term assetbacked securities loan facility Includes term auction credit December 2007 to April 2010 primary dealer and other brokerdealer credit March 2008 to February 2010 credit extended to American International Group Inc September 2008 to January 2011 asset backed commercial paper money market mutual fund liquidity facility September 2008 to February 2010 and other credit extensions not shown separately 8 Includes credit extended by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York to eligible borrowers through the Term Asset Backed Securities Loan Facility cash plus the amount of vault cash applied during the maintenance period to satisfy current reserve requirements by institutions whose vault cash exceeds their required reserves 5 Total reserve balances maintained plus vault cash used to satisfy required reserves less total Note Data on reserve balances maintained reflect the creation of a penalty free band acround borrowings from the Federal Reserve reserve balance requirements which took effect on June For more information on table 6 Equals total balances maintained plus currency in circulation not shown changes see H 3 release of July Source Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System 27 Bank Credit at All Commercial Banks Total commercial bank loans and leases rose 0 1 percent in September Billions of dollars seasonally adjusted 1 Securities in bank credit 2 Period Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May June r July r Aug Sept r Total bank credit Total securities U S Treasury and agency securities Loans and leases in bank credit Real estate loans Other securities Total loans and leases Data are prorated averages of Wednesday values for domestically chartered commercial banks branches and agencies of foreign banks and Edge Act and agreement corporations 2 Includes securities held in trading accounts held to maturity and available for sale Excludes all non security trading assets such as derivatives with a positive fair value or loans held in trading accounts 3 Excludes unearned income Includes the allowance for loan and lease losses Excludes Federal funds sold to reverse repurchase agreements RPs with and loans to commercial banks in the United States Includes all loans held in trading accounts under a fair value option 28 Commercial and industrial loans Total Revolving home equity loans Commercial loans Includes closed end residential loans not shown separately 5 Includes credit cards and other consumer loans 6 Includes other items not shown separately Source Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System Consumer loans Other loans and leases Sources and Uses of Funds Nonfarm Nonfinancial Corporate Business Billions of dollars quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates Sources Uses External Net increase in liabilities Funds raised in markets Period Total I II III IV I II III IV I p II Internal Total net funds raised Total Net new equity issues Credit market instruments Securities and mortgages Total Loans and short term paper Profits before tax book less taxes on corporate income less net dividends plus capital consumption allowance consumption of fixed capital plus capital consumption adjustment foreign earnings retained abroad inventory valuation adjustment and net capital transfers 2 Includes trade payables taxes payable and miscellaneous liabilities foreign direct investment in the U S pension fund contributions payable and other Other Total Capital expenditures Increase in financial assets Discrepancy sources less uses Nonresidential fixed investment plus residential fixed investment inventory change with inventory valuation adjustment and nonproduced nonfinancial assets Source Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System Consumer Credit Billions of dollars seasonally adjusted Net change in consumer credit outstanding 1 Consumer credit outstanding end of period Period Total 2003 Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec r Dec r Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May June r July r Aug Sept p Nonrevolving 2 Revolving Total Nonrevolving 2 Revolving Change based on data in billions of dollars as shown here For year end data change from Note Data include student loans extended by the Federal Government and by SLM Holding preceding year end for monthly data change from preceding month Corporation 2 Includes automobile loans and all other loans not included in revolving credit such as loans for Source Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System mobile homes education boats trailers or vacations These loans may be secured or unsecured 29 Interest Rates and Bond Yields Interest rates were mixed in October Percent per annum U S Treasury security yields Period Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Week ended Oct Nov month bills at auction 1 Constant maturities 2 3 year 10 year 30 year High grade municipal bonds Standard Poor s 3 Discount window N Y F R Bank 4 5 Primary credit Prime rate charged by banks 5 Discount rate High bill rate at auction issue date within period bank discount basis Data are stop yields from uniform price auctions 2 Yields on actively traded issues adjusted to constant maturities 3 Weekly data are Wednesday figures 4 Discount window borrowing for primary credit and discount rate adjustment credit The rate for primary credit replaced the rate for adjustment credit 5 Average effective rate for year rate in effect at end of month or week 30 Corporate Aaa bonds Moody s New home mortgage yields FHFA 7 Federal funds rate Daily effective rate weighted average of rates on brokered trades 7 Effective rate in the primary market on conventional mortgages reflecting fees and charges as well as contract rate and assumed on the average repayment at end of 10 years Discount rate adjustment credit series was discontinued after January Series for 30 year constant maturity was discontinued on February and reintroduced on February Sources Department of the Treasury Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System Federal Housing Finance Agency Moody s Investors Service and Standard Poor s Common Stock Prices and Yields Stock prices rose in October Common stock yields percent 7 Common stock prices 1 New York Stock Exchange indexes December Period Composite Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Week ended Oct Nov Financial Energy Health Care Dow Jones industrial average 4 Standard Poor s composite index Nasdaq composite index Feb Dividend price ratio Earnings price ratio Average of daily closing prices 2 Includes all the stocks in 2012 over 2 900 listed on the NYSE 3 Effective January the NYSE relaunched the composite index with changes in meth odology definitions and based on Dec Effective January 8 2004 new indexes for Financial Energy and Health Care were introduced by the NYSE Previous indexes shown for Industrial Transportation Utility and Finance were discontinued 4 Includes 30 stocks 5 Includes 500 stocks 6 Includes over 2 400 stocks in 2012 7 Standard Poor s series Dividend price ratios based on Wednesday closing prices Earnings price ratios based on prices at end of quarter Sources New York Stock Exchange Dow Jones Company Inc Standard Poor s and Nasdaq Stock Market 31 FEDERAL FINANCE Federal Receipts Outlays and Debt In fiscal year 2013 the deficit was 680 3 billion compared with a deficit of billion a year earlier Billions of dollars Total Fiscal year or period Receipts r estimates Outlays On budget Surplus or deficit Receipts Data for fiscal year 2013 are from Final Monthly Treasury Statement issued October Outlays Federal debt end of period Off budget Surplus or deficit Receipts Outlays Surplus or deficit Gross Federal Note Data for fiscal year 2014 are from Mid Session Review Budget of the U S Government Fiscal Year 2014 issued July Other data except as noted are from Budget of the United States Government Fiscal Year 2014 issued April Sources Department of the Treasury and Office of Management and Budget 32 Held by the public Federal Receipts by Source and Outlays by Function In fiscal year 2013 receipts were 323 8 billion higher than a year earlier and outlays were 82 8 billion lower Billions of dollars On budget and off budget receipts Fiscal year or period r estimates Total Social Indi Corpora insurance vidual tion and income income retiretaxes taxes ment receipts On budget and off budget outlays National defense Other Total Data for fiscal year 2013 are from Final Monthly Treasury Statement issued October Total Depart Internament tional of affairs Defense military Health Medicare Income Social Net security security interest Other Note Data for fiscal year 2014 are from Mid Session Review Budget of the U S Government Fiscal Year 2014 issued July Other data except as noted are from Budget of the United States Government Fiscal Year 2014 issued April Sources Department of the Treasury and Office of Management and Budget 33 Federal Sector National Income Accounts Basis In the third quarter of 2013 according to advance estimates Federal current expenditures rose 5 4 billion annual rate receipts data were incomplete Billions of dollars quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates Federal Government current receipts Current tax receipts Period Total Total 1 Calendar year I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II p III Personal current taxes Taxes on production and imports Contributions Income for Taxes govern receipts on on ment assets corporate social income insurance Includes taxes from the rest of the world not shown separately 2 Includes an item for the difference between wage accruals and disbursements not shown separately 34 Federal Government current expenditures Current transfer receipts Current surplus of government enterprises Total ConCurrent sumption transfer Interest Subsidies expendipaypayments tures ments Includes Federal grants in aid to State and local governments not shown separately Source Department of Commerce Bureau of Economic Analysis Net Federal Government saving INTERNATIONAL STATISTICS Industrial Production and Consumer Prices Major Industrial Countries Industrial production seasonally adjusted Period United States Canada Japan France Germany Consumer prices NSA United Kingdom Italy United States 1 Canada Japan France Germany 2003 r r r r r r r r Aug Sept r r Oct r Nov r Dec Jan r r Feb r Mar r Apr May r June r r July r Aug Sept p p Oct 1 Data relate to all urban consumers United Kingdom Italy Sources As reported by each country Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System and Department of Labor Bureau of Labor Statistics Note See Note p 17 for information on U S industrial production series U S International Trade in Goods and Services Billions of dollars monthly data seasonally adjusted Goods Exports f a s value Census basis by end use category Period Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May June r July p Aug BOP basis IndusFoods trial Total feeds supCensus and plies basis 1 bever and ages materials Balance of trade exports minus imports Census basis by end use category Auto ConCapital motive sumer vegoods goods except hicles nonauto parts food motive and except enautogines motive Services BOP basis Goods Imports customs value BOP basis IndusFoods trial Total feeds supCensus and plies basis 1 bever and ages materials Total includes other exports or imports not shown separately BOP basis Auto ConCapital motive sumer vegoods goods except hicles nonauto parts food motive and except enautogines motive Exports Imports Goods Census basis Goods Ser Goods and vices services Source Department of Commerce Bureau of the Census and Bureau of Economic Analysis Note BOP refers to balance of payments on international transactions basis BOP data shown here are consistent with figures shown on pp 36 and U S International Transactions In the second quarter of 2013 the goods deficit fell to 175 7 billion from 179 5 billion in the first quarter The current account deficit fell to 98 9 billion in the second quarter from 104 9 billion in the first quarter Millions of dollars quarterly data seasonally adjusted Credits debits Goods 1 Period I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I p II Exports Imports Services Balance on goods Net military transactions Net travel and transportation Other services net Balance on goods and services Income receipts and payments Receipts Payments Balance on income Unilateral current transfers net Balance on current account Adjusted from Census data to align with concepts and definitions used to prepare the inter2 Transfers under U S military agency sales contracts exports minus direct defense expendinational and national economic accounts The adjustments are necessary to supplement coverage tures imports 3 Includes transfers of goods and services under U S military grant programs of Census data to eliminate duplication of transactions recorded elsewhere in the international accounts to value transactions according to a standard definition and for earlier years to record See p 37 for continuation of table transactions in the appropriate period 36 U S International Transactions Continued In the financial account U S owned assets abroad increased 109 6 billion in the second quarter of 2013 following an increase of 229 1 billion in the first quarter Foreign owned assets in the United States increased 179 3 billion in the second quarter following an increase of 265 5 billion in the first quarter Millions of dollars quarterly data seasonally adjusted Credits debits Financial account Period U S owned assets abroad excluding financial derivatives increase financial outflow Capital account transactions net Total I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I p II U S official reserve assets Other U S Government assets Statistical discrepancy Foreign owned assets in the U S excluding financial derivatives increase financial inflow U S Private assets Consists of gold special drawing rights SDRs foreign currencies and the U S reserve position in the International Monetary Fund IMF Total Foreign official assets Other foreign assets Financial derivatives net Total sum of the items with sign reversed Of which Seasonal adjustment discrepancy U S official reserve assets net unadjusted end of period Sources Department of Commerce Bureau of Economic Analysis and Department of the Treasury 37 CONTENTS TOTAL OUTPUT INCOME AND SPENDING Page Gross Domestic Product Real Gross Domestic Product Chained Price Indexes For Gross Domestic Product Gross Domestic Product and Related Price Measures Indexes and Percent Changes Nonfinancial Corporate Business Gross Value Added and Price Costs and Profits National Income Real Personal Consumption Expenditures Sources of Personal Income Disposition of Personal Income Real Farm Income Corporate Profits Real Gross Private Domestic Investment Real Private Fixed Investment by Type Business Investment EMPLOYMENT UNEMPLOYMENT AND WAGES Status of the Labor Force Selected Unemployment Rates Selected Measures of Unemployment and Unemployment Insurance Programs Nonagricultural Employment Average Weekly Hours Hourly Earnings and Weekly Earnings Private Nonagricultural Industries Employment Cost Index Private Industry Productivity and Related Data Business and Nonfarm Business Sectors PRODUCTION AND BUSINESS ACTIVITY Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization Industrial Production Major Market Groups and Selected Manufactures New Construction New Private Housing and Vacancy Rates Business Sales and Inventories Manufacturing and Trade Manufacturers Shipments Inventories and Orders PRICES Producer Prices Consumer Prices All Urban Consumers Changes in Producer Prices for Finished Goods Changes in Consumer Prices All Urban Consumers Prices Received and Paid by Farmers MONEY CREDIT AND SECURITY MARKETS Money Stock and Debt Measures Components of Money Stock Aggregate Reserves and Monetary Base Bank Credit at All Commercial Banks Sources and Uses of Funds Nonfarm Nonfinancial Corporate Business Consumer Credit Interest Rates and Bond Yields Common Stock Prices and Yields FEDERAL FINANCE Federal Receipts Outlays and Debt Federal Receipts by Source and Outlays by Function Federal Sector National Income Accounts Basis INTERNATIONAL STATISTICS Industrial Production and Consumer Prices Major Industrial Countries U S International Trade in Goods and Services U S International Transactions General Notes Detail in these tables may not add to totals because of rounding Unless otherwise noted all dollar figures are in current dollars Symbols used p Preliminary r Revised c Corrected Not available also not applicable NSA Not seasonally adjusted 38 U S GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE

Interest Rates and Bond Yields

DATE: October 2013

PART OF:

Economic Indicators : October 2013

AUTHOR:

Council of Economic Advisers (U.S.)

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Council of Economic Advisers (U.S.) , United States. Congress. Joint Committee on the Economic Report, 1946-1956 and United States. Congress. Joint Economic Committee, 1956-. "Interest Rates and Bond Yields," in Council of Economic Advisers (U.S.) , United States. Congress. Joint Committee on the Economic Report, 1946-1956 and United States. Congress. Joint Economic Committee, 1956-. "October 2013," Economic Indicators (October 2013) : 32-32. https://fraser.stlouisfed.org/title/1/item/668/toc/404205 , accessed on December 13, 2019.

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Economic Data