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The following is plain-text output generated by Optical Character Recognition. 105th Congress 2d Session Economic Indicators August 1998 Includes data available as of September Prepared for the Joint Economic Committee by the Council of Economic Advisers UNITED STATES GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE WASHINGTON JOINT ECONOMIC COMMITTEE Created pursuant to Sec 5 a of Public Law 304 79th Cong JIM SAXTON New Jersey Chairman CONNIE MACK Florida Vice Chairman HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES TOM EWING Illinois MARK SANFORD South Carolina MAC THORNBERRY Texas JOHN T DOOLITTLE California JIM MCCRERY Louisiana FORTNEY PETE STARK California LEE H HAMILTON Indiana MAURICE D HINCHEY New York CAROLYN B MALONEY New York SENATE WILLIAM V ROTH JR Delaware ROBERT F BENNETT Utah ROD GRAMS Minnesota SAM BROWNBACK Kansas JEFF SESSIONS Alabama JEFF BINGAMAN New Mexico PAUL S SARBANES Maryland EDWARD M KENNEDY Massachusetts CHARLES S ROBB Virginia CHRISTOPHER FRENZE Executive Director COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS JANET L YELLEN Chair JEFFREY A FRANKEL Member REBECCA M BLANK Member Nominee PUBLIC LAW 120 81ST CONGRESS CHAPTER 237 1ST SESSION JOINT RESOLUTION S J Res 55 To print the monthly publication entitled Economic Indicators Resolved by the Senate and House of Representatives of the United States of America in Congress assembled That the Joint Economic Committee be authorized to issue a monthly publication entitled Economic Indicators and that a sufficient quantity be printed to furnish one copy to each Member of Congress the Secretary and the Sergeant at Arms of the Senate the Clerk Sergeant at Arms and Doorkeeper of the House of Representatives two copies to the libraries of the Senate and House and the Congressional Library seven hundred copies to the Joint Economic Committee and the required numbers of copies to the Superintendent of Documents for distribution to depository libraries and that the Superintendent of Documents be authorized to have copies printed for sale to the public Approved June Charts prepared by the Art Production Section Design and Graphics Branch Office of the Secretary Department of Commerce Economic Indicators published monthly is available at 3 00 a single copy 3 75 foreign or by subscription at 33 00 per year 41 25 for foreign mailing from SUPERINTENDENT OF DOCUMENTS GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE WASHINGTON D C 20402 For sale by the U S Government Printing Office Superintendent of Documents Mail Stop SSOP Washington DC ISBN ii TOTAL OUTPUT INCOME AND SPENDING GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT In the second quarter of 1998 according to revised estimates current dollar gross domestic product GDP rose 2 5 percent annual rate real GDP GDP in chained 1992 dollars rose 1 6 percent and the implicit price deflator rose 0 8 percent Billions of current dollars quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates Period III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II r GDP Personal Gross Gross conprivate domestic sumption domestic product expendi investtures ment Exports and imports of goods and services Government consumption expenditures and gross investment Federal Net exports Exports less exports of goods and services plus imports of goods and services Imports Total Total National defense Nondefense State and local Final Gross sales of domestic domestic purproduct chases Addendum Gross national product c Source Department of Commerce Bureau of Economic Analysis 1 REAL GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT Billions of chained 1992 dollars quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates Period Gross domestic product Personal consumption expenditures Gross private domestic investment Nonresidential fixed investment Residential fixed investment Exports and imports of goods and services Change in business inventories Federal Net exports Exports Imports III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II r Total Total Government consumption expenditures and gross investment Nondefense State and local Gross domestic purchases 1 Addendum Gross national product GDP less exports of goods and services plus imports of goods and services NOTE Because of the formula used for calculating real GDP the chained 1992 dollar estimates for the detailed components do not add to the chained dollar value of GDP or to any intermediate aggregates National defense Final sales of domestic product Source Department of Commerce Bureau of Economic Analysis IMPLICIT PRICE DEFLATORS FOR GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT Index numbers quarterly data are seasonally adjusted Personal consumption expenditures Period Gross domestic product Total Durable goods Nondurable goods Gross private domestic investment Services Exports and imports of goods and services Government consumption expenditures and gross investment Federal Nonresidential fixed Residential fixed Exports Imports Total National defense Nondefense State and local III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II r Source Department of Commerce Bureau of Economic Analysis 2 GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT AND RELATED PRICE MEASURES INDEXES AND PERCENT CHANGES Quarterly data are seasonally adjusted Percent change from preceding period 1 Index numbers Period I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II r Percent Real GDP chain type quantity index GDP current dollars GDP implicit price deflator GDP chain type price index changes based on unrounded data Quarterly percent changes are at annual rates Real GDP chain type quantity index GDP current dollars GDP chain type price index GDP implicit price deflator Source Department of Commerce Bureau of Economic Analysis NONFINANCIAL CORPORATE BUSINESS OUTPUT COSTS AND PROFITS Quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates Current dollar cost and profit per unit of real output dollars 1 Gross domestic product of nonfinancial corporate business billions of dollars Period Current dollars III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II p Output Chained 1992 dollars Total cost and profit is measured by GDP of nonfinancial corporate business in chained 1992 dollars is equal to the deflator for gross domestic product of nonfinancial corporate business with the decimal point shifted two places to the left 2 This Consumption of fixed capital Indirect business tax etc Compensation of employees Corporate profits with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments Total Profits tax liability Profits after tax Net interest Indirect business tax and nontax liability plus business transfer payments less subsidies inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments Source Department of Commerce Bureau of Economic Analysis 4 With 3 NATIONAL INCOME Billions of dollars quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates National income Period III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II r Includes Compensation of employees1 Proprietors income with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments Farm Nonfarm employer contributions for social insurance See also p 5 Rental income of persons with capital consumption adjustment Corporate profits with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments Profits with inventory valuation adjustment and without capital consumption adjustment Total Total Profits before tax Inventory valuation adjustment Capital consumption adjustment Net interest Source Department of Commerce Bureau of Economic Analysis REAL PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES Billions of chained 1992 dollars except as noted quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates Durable goods Period III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II r Total personal consumption expenditures Total durable goods Motor vehicles and parts Furniture and household equipment Nondurable goods Other Total nondurable goods Includes other items not shown separately NOTE Because of the formula used for calculating real GDP the chained 1992 dollar estimates for the detailed components do not add to the chained dollar value of GDP or to any intermediate aggregates 4 Food Clothing Gasoline and and oil shoes Services Fuel oil and coal Other Total services 1 Housing Medical care Source Department of Commerce Bureau of Economic Analysis Retail sales of new passenger cars and light trucks millions of units SOURCES OF PERSONAL INCOME Personal income rose 34 2 billion annual rate in July following an increase of 18 1 billion in June Wages and salaries increased 24 6 billion in July following an increase of 6 9 billion in June Billions of dollars monthly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates Period Total personal income Wage and salary disbursements 1 Proprietors income 3 Other labor income 1 2 Farm Nonfarm Rental income of persons 4 Personal dividend income Personal interest income Transfer payments 5 Less Personal contributions for social insurance July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr r May r June r July p The total of wage and salary disbursements and other labor income differs from compensation of employees see p 4 in that it excludes employer contributions for social insurance and the excess of wage accruals over wage disbursements 2 Consists primarily of employer contributions to private pension and private welfare funds 3 With inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments capital consumption adjustment mainly of social insurance benefits direct relief and veterans payments Source Department of Commerce Bureau of Economic Analysis 4 With 5 Consists 5 DISPOSITION OF PERSONAL INCOME According to revised estimates per capita disposable personal income in chained 1992 dollars rose at an annual rate of 2 1 percent in the second quarter of 1998 Period Personal income Less Personal tax and nontax payments Equals Disposable personal income Less Personal outlays 1 Equals Personal saving Disposable personal income in billions of chained 1992 dollars Per capita disposable personal income Current dollars Billions of dollars Chained 1992 dollars Per capita personal consumption expenditures Current dollars Chained 1992 dollars Dollars Percent change in real per capita disposable personal income Saving as percent of disposable personal income Population including Armed Forces overseas thousands 2 Percent Seasonally adjusted annual rates 1994 III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II r Includes personal consumption expenditures interest paid by persons and personal transfer payments to rest of the world net 2 Annual data are averages of quarterly data which are averages for the period Source Department of Commerce Bureau of Economic Analysis and Bureau of the Census FARM INCOME In the first quarter of 1998 according to preliminary estimates gross farm income rose 8 0 billion annual rate and net farm income fell 9 0 billion Billions of dollars quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates Income of farm operators from farming Gross farm income Period Cash marketing receipts Total 1 Total I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I p Cash marketing receipts and inventory changes plus Government payments other farm cash income and nonmoney income furnished by farms 2 Physical changes in end of year inventory of crop and livestock commodities valued at average prices during the year Livestock and products Crops Value of inventory changes Production expenses Net farm income NOTE Data include net Commodity Credit Corporation loans and operator households Quarterly data plotted for 1989 through 1993 in chart do not reflect previous revisions to annual data in table Source Department of Agriculture 7 CORPORATE PROFITS In the second quarter of 1998 according to preliminary estimates corporate profits before tax rose 1 4 billion annual rate and profits after tax rose 1 3 billion Billions of dollars quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates Profits before tax with inventory valuation adjustment 1 Profits after tax Domestic industries Period Profits before tax Nonfinancial Total 2 Total Financial Total 3 Manufacturing Wholesale Tax liability Total Dividends Undistributed profits Inventory valuation adjustment Retail III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II p See p 4 for profits with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments rest of the world not shown separately industries not shown separately 2 Includes 3 Includes 8 Source Department of Commerce Bureau of Economic Analysis REAL GROSS PRIVATE DOMESTIC INVESTMENT In the second quarter of 1998 according to revised estimates nonresidential fixed investment in chained 1992 dollars rose 28 0 billion annual rate and residential investment rose 10 5 billion There was an increase of 39 1 billion in inventories following an increase of 91 4 billion in the first quarter Billions of chained 1992 dollars quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates Fixed investment Period Gross private domestic investment Change in business inventories Nonresidential Total Total Producers durable equipment Residential Structures Total Nonfarm III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II r NOTE See p 10 for further detail on fixed investment by type Because of the formula used for calculating real GDP the chained 1992 dollar estimates for the detailed components do not add to the chained dollar value of GDP or to any intermedi ate aggregates Source Department of Commerce Bureau of Economic Analysis 9 REAL PRIVATE FIXED INVESTMENT BY TYPE Billions of chained 1992 dollars quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates Nonresidential Structures Period Total nonresidential Total 1 Residential Structures Producers durable equipment Information processing and related equipment Nonresidential buildings including farm Utilities Mining exploration shafts and wells Total 1 Total Computers and peripheral equipment 2 Other Industrial equipment Transportation and related equipment Total residential 3 Total Single family Multifamily Other III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II r Includes 2 Includes 3 Includes NOTE Because of the formula used for calculating real GDP the chained 1992 dollar estimates for the detailed components do not add to the chained dollar value of GDP or to any intermediate aggregates Source Department of Commerce Bureau of Economic Analysis other items not shown separately new computers and peripheral equipment only producers durable equipment not shown separately BUSINESS INVESTMENT Billions of dollars By industry Period Total expenditures 1 Manufacturing Total Mining Construction Total Durable goods Nondurable goods Transportation Communications Utilities Wholesale trade Retail trade Finance Insurance and real estate Services Serving multiple industries Includes an item for not distributed by industry not shown separately NOTE All data from Annual Capital Expenditures 10 Source Department of Commerce Bureau of the Census EMPLOYMENT UNEMPLOYMENT AND WAGES STATUS OF THE LABOR FORCE In August employment rose by and unemployment rose by Thousands of persons 16 years of age and over except as noted monthly data seasonally adjusted except as noted by NSA Civilian employment Period Civilian noninstitutional population NSA Civilian labor force Nonagricultural Total Agricultural Total Percent 2 Unemployment Part time for economic reasons 1 Total 15 weeks and over Not in labor force Labor force participation rate Employment population ratio Unemployment rate Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Persons at work Economic reasons include slack work material shortages inability to find fulltime work etc 2 Civilian labor force or employment as percent of civilian noninstitutional population and unemployment as percent of civilian labor force 3 Not strictly comparable with earlier data 4 Data beginning January 1994 are not directly comparable with data for earlier periods because of a major redesign of the household survey questionnaire NOTE Data beginning January 1998 reflect new composite estimation procedures and revised population controls See Employment and Earnings February 1998 for details Source Department of Labor Bureau of Labor Statistics 11 SELECTED UNEMPLOYMENT RATES In August the unemployment rate was unchanged at 4 5 percent Monthly data seasonally adjusted Unemployment rate percent of civilian labor force in group By sex and age Period Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Revised 2 Data 12 All civilian workers Men 20 years and over Women 20 years and over By race Both sexes 16 19 years White definition for details see Employment and Earnings February 1994 beginning January 1994 are not directly comparable with data for earlier periods Black and other By selected groups Black Experienced wage and salary workers Married men spouse present Women who maintain families Full time workers 1 Part time workers NOTE Data relate to persons age 16 years and over Source Department of Labor Bureau of Labor Statistics SELECTED MEASURES OF UNEMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT INSURANCE PROGRAMS In August the percentages of the unemployed who had been out of work for less than 5 weeks for 15 26 weeks and for 27 weeks and over rose the percentage for 5 14 weeks fell The mean duration of unemployment fell to 13 5 weeks and the median duration rose to 6 9 weeks Monthly data seasonally adjusted except as noted Duration of unemployment Period Unemployment thousands Percent distribution Less than 5 weeks 5 14 weeks weeks Reason for unemployment percent distribution State programs Number of weeks 27 weeks and over Average mean Median Job losers 1 Job leavers Reentrants New entrants Insured unemployment Initial claims Insured unemployment all regular programs unadjusted 2 Weekly average thousands Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Beginning January 1994 job losers and persons who completed temporary jobs 2 Includes State 50 States District of Columbia Puerto Rico and Virgin Islands ex servicemen UCX and Federal UCFE Railroad RR programs included through 1993 Also includes Federal and State extended benefit programs Does not include Federal supplemental compensation or Emergency Unemployment Compensation programs p Data beginning January 1994 are not directly comparable with data for earlier periods NOTE Data relate to persons age 16 years and over except for insured unemployment and initial claims Source Department of Labor Bureau of Labor Statistics and Employment and Training Administration 13 NONAGRICULTURAL EMPLOYMENT Total nonagricultural employment as measured by the payroll survey rose by 365 000 in August Thousands of wage and salary workers 1 seasonally adjusted Goods producing industries Period Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May June r July r Aug p Total nonagricultural employment Service producing industries Manufacturing Total Construction Total Durable goods Nondurable goods Includes all full and part time wage and salary workers in nonagricultural establishments who received pay for any part of the pay period which includes the 12th of the month Excludes proprietors self employed persons domestic servants and personnel of the Armed Forces Total in this table not comparable with estimates of nonagricultural employment of the civilian labor force shown on p 11 which include proprietors self employed persons and domestic servants which count persons as employed when they are not at work because of industrial disputes bad weather etc even if they are not paid for the time off and which are based on a sample 14 Total Transportation and public utilities Wholesale trade Retail trade Finance insurance Services and real estate Government Total Federal of the working age population whereas the estimates in this table are based on reports from employing establishments In the series shown here persons who work at more than one job are counted each time they appear on a payroll in contrast to the series shown on p 11 where persons are counted only once as employed unemployed or not in the labor force 2 Includes mining not shown separately Source Department of Labor Bureau of Labor Statistics AVERAGE WEEKLY HOURS HOURLY EARNINGS AND WEEKLY EARNINGS PRIVATE NONAGRICULTURAL INDUSTRIES For production or nonsupervisory workers monthly data seasonally adjusted except as noted Average weekly hours Average gross hourly earnings Manufacturing Period Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July r Aug p Total private nonagricultural Total Average gross weekly earnings Total private nonagricultural 1 Overtime Current dollars dollars Total private nonagricultural 1 Manufacturing r Also Percent change from a year earlier total private nonagricultural 3 Current dollars Current dollars 1982 dollars 2 Manufacturing Construction Retail trade r r r Current dollars dollars Based on seasonally unadjusted data Source Department of Labor Bureau of Labor Statistics includes other private industry groups shown on p 14 dollar earnings divided by the consumer price index for urban wage earners and clerical workers CPI W on a base 2 Current EMPLOYMENT COST INDEX PRIVATE INDUSTRY Index June Percent change from 3 months earlier Period Total compensation Wages and salaries June Sept Dec Mar June Sept Dec Mar June Sept Dec Mar June Sept Dec Mar June Benefits 1 Total compensation Wages and salaries 12 months earlier Benefits 1 Total compensation Wages and salaries Benefits 1 Not seasonally adjusted Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Seasonally adjusted 1 Employer costs for employee benefits NOTE The employment cost index is a measure of the change in the cost of labor free from the influence of employment shifts among occupations and industries Not seasonally adjusted Data exclude farm and household workers Source Department of Labor Bureau of Labor Statistics 15 PRODUCTIVITY AND RELATED DATA BUSINESS SECTOR Output per hour of all persons Period Business sector Nonfarm business sector Output 1 Business sector Hours of all persons 2 Nonfarm business sector Business sector Compensation per hour 3 Nonfarm business sector Business sector Nonfarm business sector Real compensation per hour 4 Business sector Nonfarm business sector Unit labor costs Implicit price deflator 5 Business sector Nonfarm business sector Business sector Nonfarm business sector Indexes quarterly data seasonally adjusted I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II r Percent change quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II r Output refers to real gross domestic product originating in the sector 2 Hours of all persons engaged in the sector including hours of proprietors and unpaid family workers Estimates based primarily on establishment data 3 Wages and salaries of employees plus employers contributions for social insurance and private benefit plans Also includes an estimate of wages salaries and supplemental payments for the self employed 4 Hourly compensation divided by the consumer price index for all urban consumers CPI U 5 Current dollar gross domestic output divided by the output index NOTE Data relate to all persons engaged in the sector Percent changes are from preceding period and are based on original data they therefore may differ slightly from percent changes based on indexes shown here Source Department of Labor Bureau of Labor Statistics PRODUCTION AND BUSINESS ACTIVITY INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION AND CAPACITY UTILIZATION Industrial production and capacity utilization fell in July Monthly data seasonally adjusted Total industrial production Percent Period Index From preceding month Industry production indexes change 1 From year earlier Capacity utilization rate percent 2 Manufacturing Total Durable Nondurable Mining Utilities Total industry Manufacturing July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr r May r June r July p Percent 2 Output changes based on unrounded indexes as percent of capacity Source Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System 17 INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION MAJOR MARKET GROUPS AND SELECTED MANUFACTURES monthly data seasonally adjusted Products Materials Final products Intermediate products Consumer goods Equipment Period Total Total Durable goods Nondurable goods Total 1 Business Defense and space equipment Total Construction supplies Business supplies Total Energy July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr r May r June r July p Includes oil and gas well drilling and manufactured homes not shown separately monthly data seasonally adjusted Durable manufactures Primary metals Period Total Iron and steel Fabricated metal products Industrial machinery and equipment Electrical machinery Nondurable manufactures Transportation equipment Total Motor vehicles and parts Lumber and products Apparel products Printing and publishing Chemicals and products Foods July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr r May r June r July p Source Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System 18 NEW CONSTRUCTION Monthly data seasonally adjusted Construction contracts 3 Private Period Total new construction expenditures Residential Total New housing units Total 1 Commercial and industrial 2 Other Federal and State and local Total value index Commercial and industrial floor space millions of square feet Billions of dollars July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May r June r July p r Annual rates 1 Includes residential improvements not shown separately hotels and motels Dodge series 142 r 144 143 r 144 r 144 r 145 r 140 r Sources Department of Commerce Bureau of the Census and The McGraw Hill Companies Inc F W Dodge Division 2 Includes 3 F W r 141 NEW PRIVATE HOUSING AND VACANCY RATES Thousands of units or homes except as noted New private housing units Period Total New private homes Units started by type of structure unit units 5 or more units Units authorized Units completed Homes sold Homes for sale at end of period Vacancy rate for rental housing units percent Seasonally adjusted annual rates 1997 July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May r June r July p r Seasonally adjusted 2 Revised series beginning 1989 and 1994 not comparable with earlier data except 1993 data have been revised to be comparable with new series beginning in 1994 Quarterly data entered in last month of quarter 3 The 1994 total based on 17 000 permit issuing places is 1 333 7 thousand units NOTE Beginning 1994 units authorized are for 19 000 places For other data shown units authorized are for 17 000 places Source Department of Commerce Bureau of the Census 19 BUSINESS SALES AND INVENTORIES Manufacturing and Trade In June manufacturing and trade sales rose 0 3 percent and inventories rose 0 4 billion According to advance data retail sales fell 0 4 percent in July following a rise of 0 1 percent in June Manufacturing and trade 1 Wholesale Retail Inventory sales ratio 4 Sales 2 Period Sales 2 Inventories 3 Sales 2 Inventories 3 Total Durable goods stores Inventories 3 Nondurable goods stores Total Durable goods stores Nondurable goods stores Manufacturing and trade 1 Retail Millions of dollars seasonally adjusted except as noted June r July r Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May r June p July p r r See page 21 for manufacturing 2 Annual data are averages of monthly not seasonally adjusted figures monthly data are seasonally adjusted totals for month 3 Seasonally adjusted end of period r Annual data are averages of seasonally adjusted monthly ratios Source Department of Commerce Bureau of the Census MANUFACTURERS SHIPMENTS INVENTORIES AND ORDERS In July manufacturers shipments fell inventories and new and unfilled orders rose Manufacturers shipments 1 Manufacturers inventories 2 Manufacturers new orders 1 Durable goods Period Total Durable goods Nondurable goods Total Durable goods Nondurable goods Total Total Capital Nondurable goods goods industries nondefense Manufacturers unfilled orders 2 Manufacturers inventory shipments ratio 3 Millions of dollars seasonally adjusted except as noted July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May June r July p Annual data are averages of monthly not seasonally adjusted figures monthly data are seasonally adjusted totals for month Shipments are the same as sales 2 Seasonally adjusted end of period Annual data are averages of seasonally adjusted monthly ratios Source Department of Commerce Bureau of the Census 21 PRICES PRODUCER PRICES The producer price index for all finished goods rose 0 2 percent in July Prices of finished consumer foods rose 0 4 percent while prices of other finished consumer goods rose 0 3 percent Capital equipment prices rose 0 1 percent monthly data seasonally adjusted Finished goods Intermediate materials Finished goods excluding consumer foods Period Total finished goods Consumer foods Consumer goods Total Total July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar r Apr May June July Durable Intermediate materials for food manufacturing and feeds NOTE Beginning 1998 indexes are based on updated weight allocations Nondurable Capital equipment Total finished consumer goods Crude materials Total Foods and feeds 1 Other Total Foodstuffs and feedstuffs Other Source Department of Labor Bureau of Labor Statistics CONSUMER PRICES ALL URBAN CONSUMERS In July the consumer price index for all urban consumers rose 0 2 percent seasonally adjusted it rose 0 1 percent not seasonally adjusted The index was 1 7 percent above its year earlier level except as noted monthly data seasonally adjusted except as noted All items 1 Housing Transportation Shelter Period Rel imp July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Not season Seasonally ally adjust adjusted ed NSA Total 1 Rent of primary residence Owners equivalent rent Food Total Includes items not shown separately 2 Household fuels gas piped electricity fuel oil etc and motor fuel Motor oil coolant etc excluded beginning 1983 3 Relative importance December 1997 Fuels and utilities Apparel Total 1 New cars Motor fuel Medical care Energy All items less food and energy NOTE See Bureau of Labor Statistics news release Consumer Price Index dated February for details on recent changes in CPI structure and weights Source Department of Labor Bureau of Labor Statistics 23 CHANGES IN PRODUCER PRICES FOR FINISHED GOODS Percent change from preceding period monthly data seasonally adjusted except as noted by NSA Change from preceding period Period Change from 3 months earlier annual rate Change from 6 months earlier annual rate Consumer goods Consumer goods Consumer goods Total finished goods Capital equipment Total finished goods Foods Excluding foods Capital equipment Total finished goods Foods Excluding foods Capital equipment Excluding foods Foods Change from year earlier total finished goods NSA Change Dec to Dec NSA Change month to month Jan Feb Mar r Apr May June July r r r r r r r July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Source Department of Labor Bureau of Labor Statistics CHANGES IN CONSUMER PRICES ALL URBAN CONSUMERS Percent change from preceding period monthly data seasonally adjusted except as noted by NSA Housing Transportation Shelter Period All items 1 Food Total 1 Total 1 Rent of primary residence Owners equivalent rent Fuels and utilities Apparel Total 1 New cars Motor fuel Medical care Energy 2 All items less food and energy Addendum All items percent change annual rate From previous quarter 3 From From From 3 6 year months months earlier earlier earlier NSA Change December to December NSA Change month to month 1997 July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Includes items not shown separately 2 Household fuels gas piped electricity fuel oil etc and motor fuel Motor oil coolant etc excluded beginning Quarterly changes are shown in the last month of the quarter Source Department of Labor Bureau of Labor Statistics PRICES RECEIVED AND PAID BY FARMERS In August prices received by farmers fell 1 0 percent while prices paid by farmers where unchanged Data are not seasonally adjusted not seasonally adjusted Prices received by farmers Period All farm products Prices paid by farmers Livestock and products Crops All commodities services interest taxes and wage rates 1 Production items interest taxes and wage rates Production items Ratio Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec r Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Includes items not shown separately ratio of index of prices received by farmers to index of prices paid interest taxes and wage rates 2 Percentage NOTE The official indexes are published on a base as required by law The indexes have been converted to a base to facilitate comparison with other indexes Source Department of Agriculture 25 MONEY CREDIT AND SECURITY MARKETS MONEY STOCK LIQUID ASSETS AND DEBT MEASURES M2 grew slightly in July M3 was about unchanged Averages of daily figures except as noted billions of dollars seasonally adjusted M1 M2 M3 Sum of currency demand deposits travelers checks and other checkable deposits OCDs M1 plus retail MMMF balances savings deposits including MMDAs and small time deposits M2 plus large time deposits RPs Eurodollars and institutiononly MMMF balances June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec r Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July r r r r r r r r r r r r r r r r p p Period Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec 1 Consists of outstanding credit market debt of the U S Government State and local governments and private nonfinancial sectors data derived from flow of funds accounts 2 Annual changes are from December to December and monthly changes are from 6 months earlier at a simple annual rate 26 L Debt M3 plus other liquid assets Debt of domestic nonfinancial sectors monthly average of adjacent month end levels r r r Percent change from year or 6 months earlier 2 M1 M2 M3 Debt r 11 4 r 10 4 r r 6 3 r NOTE See p 27 for components Source Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System COMPONENTS OF MONEY STOCK AND LIQUID ASSETS Averages of daily figures billions of dollars seasonally adjusted Currency Period Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Other Decheckmand able depos deposits its OCDs Money market mutual fund balances Retail Savings deposits including money market Instideposit tution accounts only MMDAs Small denomination time deposits 1 Large denomination time deposits 1 Overnight and term repurchase agreements RPs net Overnight and term Eurodollars net Shortterm Treasury securities Savings bonds Bankers acceptances Commercial paper June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Small denomination and large denomination deposits are those issued in amounts of less than and more than respectively r r 140 3 r 133 7 r 133 3 r 134 7 r r r p 186 0 p 377 0 p 13 4 p NOTE Travelers checks of nonbank issuers are a component of money stock but are not shown here Source Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System AGGREGATE RESERVES AND MONETARY BASE Averages of daily figures 1 millions of dollars seasonally adjusted except as noted by NSA Adjusted for changes in reserve requirements Borrowings of depository institutions from the Federal Reserve NSA Reserves of depository institutions Period Total Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Nonborrowed Nonborrowed plus extended credit Required Monetary base Total Seasonal Extended credit July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Data are prorated averages of biweekly maintenance period averages of daily figures Source Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System 27 BANK CREDIT AT ALL COMMERCIAL BANKS Total commercial bank loans and leases rose 0 3 percent in July commercial and industrial loans rose 0 6 percent Billions of dollars seasonally adjusted 1 Securities in bank credit Period Total bank credit Total securities Loans and leases in bank credit U S Total loans CommerGovernOther and cial and ment securities leases 2 industrial securities Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec r Dec r July Aug Sept r Oct r Nov r Dec r Jan r Feb r Mar r Apr r May r June r July Data are Wednesday values or prorated averages of Wednesday values for domestically chartered commercial banks branches and agencies of foreign banks New York State investment companies through September 1996 and Edge Act and agreement corporations Data are adjusted for breaks caused by reclassifications of assets and liabilities Real estate Total Revolving home equity Consumer Security Other Other r 820 0 r r r 828 4 r r Excludes Federal funds sold to reverse repurchase agreements RPs with and loans to commercial banks in the United States Source Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System SOURCES AND USES OF FUNDS NONFARM NONFINANCIAL CORPORATE BUSINESS Billions of dollars quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates Sources Uses External Period Credit market funds Total Internal 1 Total Total Total I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I p Securities and mortgages Profits before tax book less profit tax accruals and dividends plus consumption of fixed capital foreign earnings retained abroad and inventory valuation adjustment 2 Consists of tax liabilities trade debt pension fund liabilities and direct foreign investment in the U S Loans and short term paper Other Capital expenditures Increase in financial assets Discrepancy sources less uses Plant and equipment residential structures inventory investment and access rights from U S Government Source Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System CONSUMER CREDIT Billions of dollars seasonally adjusted Net change in consumer credit outstanding 1 Consumer credit outstanding end of period Period Total Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec r Dec r Dec r Dec r Dec r July r Aug r Sept r Oct r Nov r Dec r Jan r Feb r Mar r Apr r May r June r July p Automobile Other 2 Revolving For year end data change from preceding year end for monthly data change from preceding month 2 Outstanding loans for mobile homes education boats trailers vacations etc plus noninstallment credit 3 Data newly available in January 1989 result in breaks in many series between December 1988 and subsequent months Total Automobile Revolving Other Because of breaks in series net change not available Note Series revised beginning 1993 to reflect updated adjustment factors Source Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System 29 INTEREST RATES AND BOND YIELDS Interest rates fell in August Percent per annum U S Treasury security yields Constant Period Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Week ended 1998 Aug Sept Bank discount 3 month bills new issues 1 3 year maturities 2 10 year 30 year Highgrade municipal bonds Standard Poor s 3 Corporate Aaa bonds Moody s Prime commercial paper 6 months 1 30 Prime rate charged by banks 4 Federal funds rate 5 Newhome mortgage yields FHFB basis on the more actively traded issues adjusted to constant maturities by the Treasury Department 3 Weekly data are Wednesday figures 4 Average effective rate for year opening and closing rate for month and week 5 Daily effective rate average of the rates on a given day weighted by the volume of transactions at these rates 2 Yields Discount rate N Y F R Bank 4 6 Effective rate in the primary market on conventional mortgages reflecting fees and charges as well as contract rate and assumed on the average repayment at end of 10 years Series no longer published by Federal Reserve FR See FR release H 15 Selected Interest Rates May Sources Department of the Treasury Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System Federal Housing Finance Board Moody s Investors Service and Standard Poor s COMMON STOCK PRICES AND YIELDS Stock prices fell in August Common stock prices 1 Period Composite Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Week ended 1998 Aug Sept Average Industrial Transportation 3 Dec Utility 3 Finance Dow Jones industrial average 4 Standard Poor s composite index Dividendprice ratio Earningsprice ratio of daily closing prices all the stocks more than 3 000 listed on the NYSE Effective April the NYSE doubled the value of the utility index to facilitate trading of options and futures on the index All indexes shown here reflect the doubling 4 Includes 30 stocks 2 Includes Common stock yields percent 6 New York Stock Exchange indexes Dec except as noted 2 5 Includes 500 stocks Poor s series Dividend price ratios based on Wednesday closing prices Earnings price ratios based on prices at end of quarter NOTE All data relate to stocks listed on the New York Stock Exchange NYSE Sources New York Stock Exchange Dow Jones Company Inc and Standard Poor s 6 Standard 31 FEDERAL FINANCE FEDERAL RECEIPTS OUTLAYS AND DEBT In the first 10 months of fiscal 1998 there was a surplus of 43 0 billion compared with a deficit of 36 7 billion a year earlier Billions of dollars Total Fiscal year or period Receipts estimates Cumulative total first 10 months 1 Fiscal year Fiscal year Outlays On budget Surplus or deficit Federal debt end of period Receipts Outlays Surplus or deficit Data from current issue Monthly Treasury Statement NOTE Data for fiscal 1998 are from the Mid Session Review Budget of the U S Government Fiscal Year 1999 issued May Other data except as noted are from Budget of the United States Government Fiscal Year 1999 issued February Off budget Receipts Outlays Surplus or deficit Gross Federal Sources Department of the Treasury and Office of Management and Budget Held by the public FEDERAL RECEIPTS BY SOURCE AND OUTLAYS BY FUNCTION In the first 10 months of fiscal 1998 receipts were 128 0 billion higher than a year earlier and outlays were 48 4 billion higher Billions of dollars On budget and off budget receipts Fiscal year or period Total Individual income taxes Corporation income taxes Social insurance and retirement receipts On budget and off budget outlays National defense Other Total Total InterDepart nationment of al Defense affairs military Health Medicare Income Social security security Net interest Other estimates Cumulative total first 10 months 1 Fiscal year Fiscal year Data from current issue Monthly Treasury Statement NOTE Data for fiscal year 1998 are from the Mid Session Review Budget of the U S Government Fiscal Year 1999 issued May Other data except as noted are from Budget of the United States Government Fiscal Year 1999 issued February Sources Department of the Treasury and Office of Management and Budget 33 FEDERAL SECTOR NATIONAL INCOME ACCOUNTS BASIS In the second quarter of 1998 according to revised estimates Federal receipts rose 27 8 billion annual rate and Federal current expenditures rose 14 0 billion Billions of dollars quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates Federal Government receipts Period Total Personal tax and nontax receipts Corporate profits tax accruals Indirect business tax and nontax accruals Federal Government current expenditures Contributions for social insurance Total Consumption expenditures Transfer payments Grantsin aid to Net State interest and paid local governments Subsidies less current surplus of Government enterprises Less Wage accruals less disbursements Current surplus or deficit national income and product accounts Calendar year III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II r Source Department of Commerce Bureau of Economic Analysis 34 INTERNATIONAL STATISTICS INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION AND CONSUMER PRICES MAJOR INDUSTRIAL COUNTRIES Industrial production seasonally adjusted Period United States Canada Japan Germany France Italy p r Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec r Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July p Data Consumer prices NSA United Kingdom United States 1 Canada Japan Germany France Italy United Kingdom r r r 128 4 r r r 112 8 r r 123 0 r 122 9 r 125 5 r r r 110 4 r 110 0 r 111 8 r 110 1 r relate to all urban consumers Source National sources as reported by Department of Commerce Bureau of Economic Analysis and International Trade Administration Office of Trade and Economic Analysis U S INTERNATIONAL TRADE IN GOODS AND SERVICES Billions of dollars monthly data seasonally adjusted Goods Exports f a s value Goods Imports customs value Census basis by end use category 1 Services BOP basis Balance of trade exports minus imports Census basis by end use category BOP basis Period BOP basis Auto ConIndusmo sumer Foods trial Capital tive goods Total feeds supgoods vehi nonCensus and plies except cles food basis 2 bevand auto parts except erages mate motive and autorials enmogines tive BOP basis IndusAutoFoods trial Capital motive Total feeds supgoods vehiCensus and plies except cles basis 2 bevand auto parts erages mate motive and enrials gines Consumer goods nonfood except automotive Exports Imports Goods Census basis Goods Services Goods and services June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May r June p Includes 2 Total undocumented exports to Canada through 1988 includes other exports or imports not shown separately NOTE BOP refers to balance of payments on international transactions basis BOP data shown here are consistent with figures shown on pp 36 and 37 Source Department of Commerce Bureau of the Census and Bureau of Economic Analysis 35 U S INTERNATIONAL TRANSACTIONS In the first quarter of 1998 the goods deficit rose to 55 7 billion from 49 8 billion in the fourth quarter of 1997 The current account deficit rose to 47 2 billion in the first quarter from 45 0 billion in the fourth quarter Millions of dollars quarterly data seasonally adjusted except as noted Credits debits Goods 1 Imports Net balance Net military transactions 2 3 Period Exports Services Net travel and transportation receipts Investment income Other services net Balance on goods and services Receipts on U S assets abroad Payments on foreign assets in U S III IV I II III IV I II III IV I p Adjusted from Census data for differences in timing and coverage excludes military 2 Transfers under U S military agency sales contracts exports minus direct defense expenditures imports Quarterly Net Balance on goods Unilateral services transfers and net 4 income Balance on current account data are not seasonally adjusted 4 Includes transfers of goods and services under U S military grant programs See p 37 for continuation of table U S INTERNATIONAL TRANSACTIONS Continued In the capital accounts U S claims on foreigners reported by U S banks decreased 12 9 billion in the first quarter of 1998 following an increase of 27 5 billion in the fourth quarter of 1997 U S liabilities to private foreigners reported by U S banks excluding Treasury securities decreased 41 2 billion in the first quarter following an increase of 89 6 billion in the fourth quarter Millions of dollars quarterly data seasonally adjusted except as noted U S assets abroad net increase capital outflow Period Total III IV I II III IV I II III IV I p U S official reserve assets Other U S Government assets Foreign assets in the U S net increase capital inflow U S private assets Total Foreign official assets Consists of gold special drawing rights SDRs foreign currencies and the U S reserve position in the IMF Other foreign assets Statistical discrepancy Allocations of special Total sum Of which drawing of the items Seasonal rights with sign adjustment SDRs reversed discrepancy U S official reserve assets net 5 unadjusted end of period Sources Department of Commerce Bureau of Economic Analysis and Department of the Treasury 37 Contents Page TOTAL OUTPUT INCOME AND SPENDING Gross Domestic Product Real Gross Domestic Product Implicit Price Deflators for Gross Domestic Product Gross Domestic Product and Related Price Measures Indexes and Percent Changes Nonfinancial Corporate Business Output Costs and Profits National Income Real Personal Consumption Expenditures Sources of Personal Income Disposition of Personal Income Farm Income Corporate Profits Real Gross Private Domestic Investment Real Private Fixed Investment by Type Business Investment EMPLOYMENT UNEMPLOYMENT AND WAGES Status of the Labor Force Selected Unemployment Rates Selected Measures of Unemployment and Unemployment Insurance Programs Nonagricultural Employment Average Weekly Hours Hourly Earnings and Weekly Earnings Private Nonagricultural Industries Employment Cost Index Private Industry Productivity and Related Data Business Sector PRODUCTION AND BUSINESS ACTIVITY Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization Industrial Production Major Market Groups and Selected Manufactures New Construction New Private Housing and Vacancy Rates Business Sales and Inventories Manufacturing and Trade Manufacturers Shipments Inventories and Orders PRICES Producer Prices Consumer Prices All Urban Consumers Changes in Producer Prices for Finished Goods Changes in Consumer Prices All Urban Consumers Prices Received and Paid by Farmers MONEY CREDIT AND SECURITY MARKETS Money Stock Liquid Assets and Debt Measures Components of Money Stock and Liquid Assets Aggregate Reserves and Monetary Base Bank Credit at All Commercial Banks Sources and Uses of Funds Nonfarm Nonfinancial Corporate Business Consumer Credit Interest Rates and Bond Yields Common Stock Prices and Yields FEDERAL FINANCE Federal Receipts Outlays and Debt Federal Receipts by Source and Outlays by Function Federal Sector National Income Accounts Basis INTERNATIONAL STATISTICS Industrial Production and Consumer Prices Major Industrial Countries U S International Trade in Goods and Services U S International Transactions General Notes Detail in these tables may not add to totals because of rounding Unless otherwise noted all dollar figures are in current dollars Symbols used p Preliminary r Revised c Corrected Not available also not applicable NSA not seasonally adjusted 38 For sale by the Superintendent of Documents U S Government Printing Office Washington D C 20402 Price 3 00 single copy 3 75 foreign Subscription price 33 00 per year 41 25 for foreign mailing U S GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE

New Construction

DATE: August 1998

PART OF:

Economic Indicators : August 1998

AUTHOR:

Council of Economic Advisers (U.S.)

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Council of Economic Advisers (U.S.) , United States. Congress. Joint Committee on the Economic Report, 1946-1956 and United States. Congress. Joint Economic Committee, 1956-. "New Construction," in Council of Economic Advisers (U.S.) , United States. Congress. Joint Committee on the Economic Report, 1946-1956 and United States. Congress. Joint Economic Committee, 1956-. "August 1998," Economic Indicators (August 1998) : 21-21. https://fraser.stlouisfed.org/title/1/item/591/toc/117264 , accessed on December 8, 2019.

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Economic Data