Full text of Economic Indicators : March 1986
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99th Congress, 2d Session
Economic Indicators
MARCH 1986
Prepared for the Joint Economic Committee by the
Council of Economic Advisers
UNITED STATES
GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE
WASHINGTON : 1986
JOINT ECONOMIC COMMITTEE
(Created pursuant to Sec. 5(a) of Public Law 304, 79th Cong.)
DAVID R. OBEY, Wisconsin, Chairman
JAMES ABDNOR, South Dakota, Vice Chairman
HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES
LEE H. HAMILTON (Indiana)
PARREN J. MITCHELL (Maryland)
AUGUSTUS F. HAWKINS (California)
JAMES H. SCHEUER (New York)
FORTNEY H. (PETE) STARK (California)
CHALMERS P. WYLIE (Ohio)
DAN LUNGREN (California)
OLYMPIA J. SNOWE (Maine)
BOBBI FIEDLER (California)
SENATE
WILLIAM V. ROTH, JR. (Delaware)
STEVEN D. SYMMS (Idaho)
MACK MATTINGLY (Georgia)
ALFONSE M. D'AMATO (New York)
PETE WILSON (California)
LLOYD BENTSEN (Texas)
WILLIAM PROXMIRE (Wisconsin)
EDWARD M. KENNEDY (Massachusetts)
PAUL S. SARBANES (Maryland)
SCOTT LILLY, Executive Director
ROBERT J. TOSTERUD, Deputy Director
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS
BERYL W. SPRINKEL, Chairman
THOMAS G. MOORE, Member
[PUBLIC LAW 120—81sT CONGRESS; CHAPTER 237—IST SESSION]
JOINT RESOLUTION [SJ. Res, 55]
To print the monthly publication entitled "Economic Indicators"
Resolved by the Senate and House of Representatives of the United States of America in Congress assembled, That the
Joint Economic Committee be authorized to issue a monthly publication entitled "Economic Indicators," and that
a sufficient quantity be printed to furnish one copy to each Member of Congress; the Secretary and the Sergeant
at Arms of the Senate; the Clerk, Sergeant at Arms, and Doorkeeper of the House of Representatives; two
copies to the libraries of the Senate and House, and the Congressional Library; seven hundred copies to the
Joint Economic Committee; and the required numbers of copies to the Superintendent of Documents for
distribution to depository libraries; and that the Superintendent of Documents be authorized to have copies
printed for sale to the public.
Approved June 23, 1949.
Charts drawn by Art Production Branch, Office of the Secretary, Department of Commerce.
Economic Indicators, published monthly, is available at $2.50 a single copy
($3.13 foreign), or by subscription at $27.00 per year ($33.75 for foreign
mailing) from:
SUPERINTENDENT OF DOCUMENTS
GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE
WASHINGTON, D.C. 20402
TOTAL OUTPUT, INCOME, AND SPENDING
GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT
According to revised estimates, current-dollar gross national product (GNP) rose 4.3 percent (annual rate) or $42.4
billion in the fourth quarter of 1985. Real GNP (GNP adjusted for price changes) rose 0.7 percent and the implicit
price deflator rose 3.3 percent.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS (RATIO SCALE)
4,400
4 000
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS (RATIO SCALE)
4,400
SEASO MAILY ADJUSTED ANN UAL RATES
i—
—
—
— ~ 4000
—
3,600
IN 1982 DOLLARS
—
_
3 200
»
i-«s
.
i-*...
— «- — •"
—
2800
x-"~1
GNP
^--*1
/
~"
^s^
—
•^~-
—
~~
S^~'
^f^"***
~_^>»-*ir_-
,
^—
^^
3200
—
•~
2,800
"Y
~
2,400
3,600
.*•"*
__
—-
GNP
^
INC!JRRENT DOILA RS -
2,400
,
/
—
—
^ ^
2000 -
\
1,600
1 1
1977
1
2,000
1
1 1
1978
1
1979
1
1 1 1
1
1980
1
1
1 1 1
1982
1981
i ii
1 1 1
1983
SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE
1
1
1
1,600
1985
1984
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS
[Billions of current dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]
Govern ment purch ases of
gooc s and services
Exports ind imports of goods
ind services
Personal
consumption
expenditures
Gross
private
domestic
investment
2,249.7
2,508.2
2,732.0
3,052.6
3,166.0
3,401.6
3,774.7
3,988.5
1,403.5
1,566.8
1,732.6
1,915.1
2,050.7
2,229.3
2,423.0
2,582.3
416.8
454.8
437.0
515.5
447.3
501.9
674.0
669.3
4.1
18.8
32.1
33.9
26.3
-5.3
-59.2
-78.5
227.5
291.2
351.0
382.8
361.9
354.1
384.6
369.9
223.4
272.5
318.9
348.9
335.6
359.4
443.8
448.4
425.2
467.8
530.3
588.1
641.7
675.7
736.8
815.4
161.8
178.0
208.1
242.2
272.7
284.8
312.9
355.4
108.9
121.9
142.7
167.5
193.8
215.7
237.0
261.9
52.9
56.1
65.4
74.8
78.9
69.2
76.0
93.6
263.4
289.9
322.2
345.9
369.0
390.9
423.9
460.0
2,221.0
2,495.2
2,740.3
3,028.6
3,190.5
3,408.0
3,707.6
3,981.1
III
TV
3,179.4
3,212.5
2,065.6
2,117.0
452.2
409.6
14.5
359.9
335.9
345.4
321.9
647.1
671.8
275.3
293.2
197.3
205.4
78.0
87.7
371.8
378.7
3,188.4
3,272.4
1983: I
II
UI
IV
3,268.7
3,365.1
3,437.5
3,535.0
2,146.0
2,210.1
2,254.9
2,306.3
425.0
483.7
521.2
577.6
-19.7
-27.4
344.6
345.0
358.0
368.8
316.2
347.5
377.6
396.2
669.3
673.8
681.1
678.6
287.1
287.0
286.0
279.2
209.4
214.5
215.8
222.9
77.8
72.5
70.2
56.2
382.2
386.9
395.1
399.4
3,311.4
3,370.6
3,440.3
3,509.5
1984:
3,676.5
3,757.5
3,812.2
3,852.5
2,358.6
2,414.4
2,439.0
2,480.1
658.8
673.3
687.9
676.2
-37.4
-65.3
-61.9
-72.2
375.4
382.3
391.4
389.5
412.8
447.6
453.3
461.7
696.5
735.1
747.3
768.4
285.6
314.8
318.5
332.9
228.3
235.8
236.2
247.5
57.3
79.0
82.2
85.4
410.9
420.3
428.8
435.5
3,584.4
3,688.7
3,743.9
3,813.5
3,917.5
3,960.6
4,016.9
4,059.3
2,525.0
2,563.3
2,606.1
2,634.8
657.6
672.8
666.1
680.7
-42.3
-70.3
-87.8
-113.4
379.6
369.2
363.2
367.8
421.9
439.5
451.0
481.2
777.2
794.8
832.5
857.2
334.4
337.8
364.8
384.7
249.5
256.0
269.9
272.1
84.9
81.7
95.0
112.6
442.8
457.1
467.7
472.5
3,899.0
3,945.0
4,016.7
4,063.6
Period
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985 '
1982:
I
II
m
IV
1985:
I
n
Ill
IV
Gross
national
product
Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.
Federal
Net
exports
14.1
28.4
-2.6
Exports
Imports
Total
National
defense
Nondefense
and
GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT IN 1982 DOLLARS
[Billions of 1982 dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]
Personal
Period
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
T
Gross
national
product
consumption
expenditures
Exj)0rts of go ods
a nd service
Gross privat e
dome stic investrnent
Nonresidential
fixed
Residential
fixed
Change
in
business
inventories
Govern nent purcb ases of
gooc s and sen ices
Federal
Net
exports
Exports
Imports
Total
Total
National
defense
Nondefense
State
and
local
Final
sales
3,115.2
3,192.4
3,187.1
3,248.8
3,166.0
3,277.7
3,492.0
3,570.0
1,961.0
2,004.4
2,000.4
2,024.2
2,050.7
2,145.9
2,239.9
2,313.0
362.1
389.4
379.2
395.2
366.7
360.1
430.3
472.0
178.0
170.8
137.0
126.5
105.1
148.7
168.3
171.2
36.8
15.0
-6.9
23.9
-24.5
-5.5
62.7
5.7
-26.8
3.6
57.0
49.4
26.3
-19.4
-85.0
-108.4
312.6
356.8
388.9
392.7
361.9
349.4
370.9
359.9
339.4
353.2
332.0
343.4
335.6
368.8
455.9
468.3
604.1
609.1
620.5
629.7
641.7
647.8
675.9
716.4
233.7
236.2
246.9
259.6
272.7
275.5
292.5
322.6
160.7
164.3
171.2
180.3
193.6
207.3
220.3
235.7
73.0
71.9
75.7
79.3
78.9
68.3
72.3
86.9
370.4
373.0
373.6
370.1
369.0
372.2
383.3
393.8
3,078.4
3,177.4
3,194.0
3,225.0
3,190.5
3,283.1
3,429.3
3,564.3
1982:
III
IV
3,154.5
3,159.3
2,051.8
2,078.7
358.0
352.3
100.1
115.8
-9.4
-59.3
11.7
11.7
359.5
336.0
347.8
324.3
642.5
660.1
273.8
289.5
197.0
201.4
76.9
88.2
368.6
370.6
3,164.0
3,218.6
1983:
I
II
Ill
IV
3,190.6
3,259.3
3,303.4
3,357.2
2,096.4
2,137.2
2,161.8
2,188.1
337.5
346.9
363.4
392.9
127.2
145.8
161.6
160.4
-42.2
-3.7
1.4
22.5
-15.0
-36.2
-48.9
342.8
342.4
353.1
359.1
320.3
357.4
389.3
408.0
649.1
648.2
651.5
642.2
279.2
277.6
277.4
267.9
203.8
206.9
206.5
211.8
75.4
70.6
70.9
56.1
369.9
370.6
374.1
374.3
3,232.8
3,263.0
3,302.1
3,334.6
1984:
I
II
Ill
IV
3,449.4
3,492.6
3,510.4
3,515.6
2,210.9
2,243.0
166.6
170.0
170.8
166.0
83.6
66.0
64.9
36.1
-60.6
-90.4
-88.7
-100.2
362.7
366.6
376.9
377.3
423.3
457.0
465.6
477.5
650.1
677.1
682.4
693.9
271.4
294.8
2P6.7
307.3
214.1
219.6
219.6
227.9
57.3
75.2
2,243.4
2,262.0
398.8
426.8
437.6
457.8
79.5
378.6
382.4
385.7
386.6
3,365.7
3,426.6
3,445.5
3,479.5
I
II....
Ill
IV '.
3,547.8
3,557.4
3,584.1
3,590.8
2,288.6
2,303.5
2,329.6
2,330.4
457.2
470.9
473.7
486.5
166.7
169.6
173.1
175.5
15.8
15.1
-1.8
-6.3
-71.8
-101.1
-119.8
-140.8
368.7
358.2
353.5
359.2
440.5
459.3
473.3
500.0
691.4
699.4
729.2
745.5
304.3
226.7
231.5
243.3
241.3
77.6
74.3
87.9
107.7
387.1
393.6
398.1
396.5
3,532.0
3,542.3
3,585.8
3,597.1
1985:
22.6
305.9
331.1
349.0
77.1
Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.
IMPLICIT PRICE DEFLATORS FOR GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT
[1982—100; quarterly data arc seasonally adjusted]
Personal c onsumption
Gross private
domestic i nvestment
expert ditures
Period
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985 r
national
product
Exports an 1 imports of
goods an i services
Gove rnment pure lases of goo ds and
ser vices
Federal
Total
Durable
goods
Nondurable goods
Services
dential
Residential fixed
Exports
Imports
National
defense
Nondefense
State
and local
72.2
78.6
85.7
94.0
100.0
103.8
108.1
111.7
71.6
78.2
86.6
94.6
100.0
103.9
108.2
111.6
76.9
82.1
89.2
95.7
100.0
102.1
103.9
104.7
71.9
80.0
89.4
96.9
100.0
102.0
105.4
107.7
69.8
75.6
83.9
92.6
100.0
105.7
111.5
116.8
71.5
77.8
85.1
93.4
100.0
98.9
99.4
100.9
72.6
81.4
89.4
96.6
100.0
102.2
106.4
108.4
72.8
81.6
90.2
97.5
100.0
101.4
103.7
102.8
65.8
77.1
96.0
101.6
100.0
97.5
97.4
95.8
69.2
75.4
84.3
93.3
100.0
103.4
107.0
110.2
67.8
74.2
83.4
92.9
100.0
104.0
107.6
111.1
72.4
78.0
86.4
94.3
100.0
101.3
105.1
107.7
71.1
77.7
86.2
93.4
100.0
105.0
110.6
116.8
1982:
III
IV
100.8
101.7
100.7
101.8
100.4
100.7
100.5
101.0
100.9
102.7
100.8
100.7
100.4
99.1
100.1
100.0
99.3
99.3
100.5
101.3
100.2
102.0
101.5
99.5
100.9
102.2
1983:
I
II
Ill
IV
102.4
103.2
104.1
105.3
102.4
103.4
104.3
105.4
101.3
101.6
102.4
103.1
100.7
101.9
102.4
103.1
103.9
105.0
106.2
107.8
100.1
98.9
98.3
98.4
102.0
100.3
103.2
103.1
100.5
100.8
101.4
102.7
98.7
97.2
97.0
97.1
102.8
103.4
103.1
104.2
102.7
103.7
104.5
105.3
103.1
102.6
99.0
100.1
103.3
104.4
105.6
106.7
1984:
I
II
Ill
IV
106.6
107.6
108.6
109.6
106.7
107.6
108.7
109.6
103.4
103.9
104.1
104.5
104.8
105.5
106.6
109.2
110.8
112.5
113.5
98.8
99.2
99.6
100.1
103.6
106.5
107.6
107.9
103.5
104.3
103.8
103.2
97.5
98.0
97.3
96.7
105.2
106.8
107.3
108.3
106.6
107.4
107.6
108.6
99.9
105.0
106.7
107.5
108.5
109.9
111.2
112.7
1985:
I
II
Ill
IV '
110.4
111.3
112.1
113.0
110.3
111.3
111.9
113.1
104.9
104.8
104.6
106.7
107.5
107.6
109.1
114.7
116.1
100.5
100.7
101.0
101.2
107.7
107.9
108.2
109.7
102.9
103.1
102.7
102.4
95.8
95.7
95.3
96.2
109.9
110.4
110.2
110.2
110.1
110.6
110.9
112.8
109.4
110.0
108.1
104.5
114.4
116.1
117.5
119.2
104.2
104.4
Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.
117.4
118.7
CHANGES IN GNP, PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES, AND
RELATED PRICE MEASURES
[Percent change from previous period; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]
Gr ss national pr duct
Period
Constant
(1982)
dollars
Current
dollars
1978
13.0
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985 "
1982: HI
IV
1983: I
II
HI
IV
1984: I
II
UI
IV
1985: I
II
Ill
IV.
11.5
8.9
11.7
3.7
7.4
11.0
5.7
25
5.3
2.5
-.2
1.9
-2.5
3.5
6.5
r
2.2
-3.2
.6
4.0
8.9
5.5
6.7
11.4
5.1
2.1
.6
3.7
1.1
3.0
.7
4.2
7.2
12.3
8.9
11.8
17.0
9.1
6.0
4.3
6.9
4.5
5.8
4.3
Implicit
price
deflator
7.3
8.9
9.0
9.7
6.4
3.8
4.1
3.3
5.8
3.6
2.8
3.2
3.5
4.7
5.0
3.8
3.8
3.7
3.0
3.3
2.9
3.3
NOTE.—Annual changes are from previous year and quarterly changes are from previous quarter.
Personal consumption e tpenditures
Chain price
index
Fixedweighted
price index
(1982
weights)
6.9
8.0
9.1
9.5
6.4
3.9
4.2
3.5
5.7
3.8
3.2
11.6
11.6
6.2
8.5
9.3
9.3
6.2
4.0
4.3
3.6
5.5
4.0
3.2
3.8
4.0
4.3
5.1
4.3
3.7
3.5
3.5
3.6
2.7
3.9
2.8
4.7
2.9
4.8
6.1
3.8
3.9
3.5
3.6
2.5
2.9
Constant
(1982)
dollars
Current
dollars
Implicit
price
deflator
4.1
2.2
io.e
— .2
10.5
7.1
8.7
8.7
6.6
8.5
10.3
5.6
12.5
8.4
1.2
1.3
4.6
4.4
3.3
2.1
5.3
3.4
8.0
4.7
5.0
4.2
5.9
.1
3.4
4.8
9.4
9.4
9.8
4.1
6.9
7.4
6.2
2.6
4.6
.1
6.8
4.5
7.3
9.2
10.7
9.2
5.7
3.9
4.1
3.1
6.2
4.4
2.4
4.0
3.5
4.3
5.0
3.4
4.2
3.4
2.6
3.7
2.2
4.4
Chain price
index
Fixedweighted
price index
(1982
weights)
7.2
9.2
10.9
9.2
5.7
4.0
4.2
3.4
6.3
4.8
2.2
4.2
3.7
4.4
5.1
3.7
4.1
3.6
2.7
3.7
2.4
4.5
7.0
8.8
10.5
9.0
5.6
4.0
4.3
3.4
6.3
4.8
2.3
4.2
3.8
4.4
5.2
3.8
4.2
3.6
2.7
3.8
2.6
4.6
Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.
NONFINANCIAL CORPORATE BUSINESS—OUTPUT, COSTS, AND
PROFITS
[Quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]
Current-dollar cos and profit per unit o output (do liars) »
Gross c omestic
produ ct of
nonfin ancial
corporate business
(billions c f dollars)
Tote!
Period
Current
dollars
1982
dollars
Corp irate profits with
inventory valuation a nd capital
consuniption adjus tments
Capital
consumption
and
profit 2
ances
with
capital
consump-
Indirect
business
taxes 3
Compenemployees
Net
interest
Total
Profits
tax
Profits
after
Output
per hour
of all
employees
(1982
dollars)
Compensation
17.358
17.221
17.096
17.194
17.318
17.940
18.323
18.299
8.219
9.002
9.939
10.861
11.699
12.179
22.593
12.989
17.375
17.402
17.699
17.899
18.046
18.113
18.321
18.416
18.308
18.260
18.266
18.255
18.382
11.804
11.928
12.069
12.138
12.191
12.315
12.448
12.552
12.645
12.733
12.839
12.950
13.040
of all
employees
(dollars)
adjustment
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985 '.
1982:
1983:
m
IV
I
1984:
IV
I
1985:
n
m
n
m
IV
I
n
m
IV"
1
1,274.1
1,417.4
1,540.8
1,738.4
1,782.2
1,915.9
2,153.1
2,281.9
1,789.8
1,840.4
1,807.9
1,837.2
1,782.2
1,866.9
2,039.3
2,097.1
0.712
.770
.852
.946
1.000
1.026
1.056
1.088
0.073
.082
.095
.109
.125
.124
.119
.121
0.064
.066
.077
.090
.094
.098
.099
.102
0.473
.523
.581
.632
.676
.679
.687
.710
0.020
.024
.031
.037
.043
.039
.042
.041
0.082
.076
.068
.078
.063
.086
.108
.115
0.037
.038
.037
.035
.026
.031
.035
.029
0.044
.038
.031
1,789.0
1,779.4
1,820.0
1,884.9
1,946.5
2,012.2
2,088.0
2,147.0
2,172.5
2,205.2
2,237.0
2,265.8
2,301.6
2,323.1
1,777.8
1,760.2
1,793.1
1,842.5
1,891.2
1,940.8
2,005.0
2,043.0
2,048.2
2,061.0
2,077.3
2,087.2
2,106.9
2,117.1
1.006
1.011
1.015
1.023
1.029
1.037
1.041
1.051
1.061
1.070
1.077
1.086
1.092
1.097
.127
.131
.128
.125
.124
.121
.119
.118
.119
.120
.120
.121
.121
.122
.094
.096
.096
.099
.099
.098
.098
.099
.100
.100
.100
.103
.102
.102
.679
.685
.682
.678
.676
.680
.679
.682
.691
.697
.703
.709
.709
.717
.041
.042
.040
.039
.039
.039
.039
.041
.043
.044
.043
.042
.040
.039
.065
.057
.070
.082
.092
.099
.106
.111
.107
.109
.111
.111
.120
.117
.026
.023
.023
.030
.035
.034
.038
.038
.032
.032
.029
.028
.030
.031
.038
.034
.047
.053
.057
.065
.068
.073
.075
.077
.081
.083
.090
.086
Output is measured by gross domestic prod uct of nonfin ncial corpora te business in 1982 dol-
lars.
2
This is equal to the deflator for gross dome stic product c f nonfinancia corporate business with
the decimal point shifted two places to the left.
.044
.037
.055
.073
.085
'Indir ect business t ix and nontiLX liability ph s business tr insfer paymer, ts less subsid es.
«With inventory va uation and c apital consuniption adjustnnents.
Source s: Department of Comm erce (Bureau of Economi z Analysis) a nd Departme nt of Labor
(Bureau c f Labor Stati tics).
NATIONAL INCOME
[Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]
Period
National
income
Compensation of
emplov-
Proprietoi s' income
with in -entorv
valuation t nd capital
consurnption
adjust nents
Farm
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985 r
2,047.3
2,203.5
2,443.5
2,518.4
2,718.3
3,039.3
3,212.8
2,528.4
2,548 2
2,603.6
2,678.9
2,747.4
2,843.5
2,967.7
3,021.1
3,064.2
3,104.4
3,155.3
3,192.2
3,228.0
3,275.9
1982: III
IV
1983: I
II
Ill
IV
1984: I
II
Ill
IV
1985: I
II
Ill
IV
1
1,491.4
1,638.2
1,807.4
1,907.0
2,025.9
2,221.3
2,372.5
1,918.4
1,931.1
1,962.4
2,001.5
2,041.8
2,097.6
2,160.9
2,204.8
2,241.2
2,278.5
2,320.4
2,356.9
2,385.2
r
2,427.5
tion
adjustment
Nonfarm
31.7
20.5
30.7
24.6
Corpora tc profits \vi h inventorv valuation an i capital
con.surnption adjus ments
Profits w th inventory valuation
adjustme H and witho ut capital
consn mption adjus :ment
Total
Total
Capital
consump-
Net
interest
Inventorv
valuation
adjustment
Profits
heiore tax
160.1
160.1
156.1
150.9
178.0
201.6
221.0
5.6
6.6
13.3
13.6
12.8
10.8
13.8
200.1
177.2
188.0
150.0
213.8
273.3
297.0
214.1
194.0
202.3
159.2
195.0
232.3
226.1
237.1
226.5
169.6
205.0
237.6
226.8
-43.2
-43.1
— 24.2
-10.4
-10.0
-5.4
-.6
-14.0
-16.8
-14.4
-9.2
18.8
41.0
70.9
272.3
273.6
300.2
287.4
151.7
159.8
12.0
15.8
154.3
146.1
161.6
150.7
171.6
164.1
-10.0
- 13.4
-7.3
-4.5
266.9
167.2
175.5
182.3
187.1
13.3
14.8
11.9
11.0
173.4
205.9
228.4
247.6
163.7
190.5
207.3
218.7
167.1
199.8
225.4
227.6
-3.4
-9.3
-18.1
-8.9
9.7
15.5
21.0
28.9
268.5
269.4
276.4
280.3
195.9
199.7
204.5
206.3
11.6
11.9
10.0
9.7
268.0
277.8
234.4
271.2
276.2
241.8
226.5
226.3
247.4
247.4
227.7
228.0
-13.0
-5.6
-1.3
-1.6
33.5
36.0
44.8
49.8
286.9
297.6
309.5
307.0
212.9
218.1
225.3
r
227.6
11.0
13.8
14.5
281.7
288.1
309.1
309.1
220.6
220.9
233.2
229.8
220.0
.7
2.2
4.7
'-10.1
61.1
67.2
75.9
'79.4
302.9
292.4
14.3
32.1
21.2
22.9
28.5
18.7
11.8
6.6
20.0
44.4
29.4
27.8
26.6
26.5
22.8
12.2
r
23.3
Rental
income of
persons
with
capita!
Includes employer contributions for social insurance. (See also p. 5.)
r
lo.9
257.2
218.7
228.6
239.8
1 58.3
200.9
248.1
269.1
281.8
r
272.6
Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.
PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES
[Billions of dollars, except as noted; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]
Durabl i
Period
consumption
expendi-
Total
durable
goods
Motor
vehicles
and
parts
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985 r.
1982: III
IV
1983: I
II
Ill
IV
1984: I
II
Ill
IV
1985: I
II
Ill
IV r .
1,566.8
1,732.6
1,915.1
2,050.7
2,229.3
2,423.0
2,582.3
2,065.6
2,117.0
2,146.0
2,210.1
2,254.9
2,306.3
2,358.6
219.0
219.3
239.9
252.7
289.6
331.1
361.5
96.9
90.3
100.5
108.9
130.6
153.8
168.4
252.8
263.8
108.3
115.7
268.5
285.3
295.3
309.4
115.9
129.2
134.0
143.1
2,414.4
2,439.0
2,480.1
321.6
330.2
331.1
341.5
150.1
154.1
153.6
157.4
2,525.0
2,563.3
2,606.1
2,634.8
351.5
356.5
376.0
362.0
163.1
165.4
183.0
162.2
Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.
Noil durable g
goods
Furniture
and
household
equipment
82.1
86.2
92.7
95.7
107.4
119.4
129.0
96.4
99.1
102.1
105.4
109.0
113.0
116.1
118.8
119.3
123.5
125.7
127.6
128.6
134.1
Total
Other
40.0
42.8
46.6
48.1
51.7
57.9
64.1
48.1
49.0
50.4
50.7
52.2
53.3
55.4
57.3
58.2
60.6
62.7
63.4
64.4
65.7
durable
613.2
681.4
740.6
771.0
817.0
872.4
912.2
776.7
786.6
792.4
811.7
826.5
837.2
856.6
873.2
876.6
883.1
895.7
910.2
914.5
928.3
Food
317.3
349.1
376.5
398.8
422.0
451.7
474.0
402.7
407.0
413.1
419.0
426.0
430.0
440.0
449.9
457. 1
459.6
465.5
472.1
475.9
482.5
Clothing and
shoes
Gasoline
and oil
102.2
109.0
119.9
124.4
135.2
66.1
83.7
92.7
89.1
90.1
90.7
91.8
88.6
89.8
86.5
89.4
92.5
92.1
92.0
91.9
89.1
89.8
89.3
92.9
92 2
93.0
147.4
156.0
125.0
126.5
129.4
135.0
135.5
140.9
144.4
149.1
146.4
149.7
152.8
156.3
155.7
159.4
Other
Services
Retail sales of
new pa ssenger
cars (mi iions of
un ts)
Domestics
127.6
139.5
151.6
158.7
169.6
182.6
190.3
160.4
163.4
163.3
168.3
172.6
174.1
180.2
182.3
184.0
184.1
188.2
188.9
190.7
193.4
734.6
831.9
934.7
1,027.0
1,122.7
1,219.6
1,308.6
1,036.1
1,066.5
1,085.2
1,113.0
1,133.1
1,159.6
1,180.4
1,211.1
1,231.3
1,255.4
1,277.8
1,296.6
1,315.6
1,344.6
8.2
6.6
6.2
5.8
6.8
8.0
8.2
5.6
6.0
6.0
6.9
6.9
7.4
8.1
8.2
7.9
7.6
8.5
8.2
9.4
7.0
Imports
2.3
2.4
2.3
22
2.4
2.4
2.8
22
2.5
2.3
2.3
2.3
2.6
2.3
2.4
2.4
2.7
2.4
2.7
3.0
3.3
SOURCES OF PERSONAL INCOME
Personal income rose $19.2 billion (annual rate) in February, following a rise of $2.8 billion in January. The
changes were affected by special factors involving military pay, cost-of-living adjustments, tax rates and the
taxable wage base for social security, and subsidy payments for farmers. Excluding these special factors, personal
income rose $13.8 billion in February and $12.4 billion in January.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS*(RATIO SCALE)
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS*(RATIO SCALE)
3,800
3,800
3,200
3,200
1,600
1,600
WAGE AND SALARY DISBURSEMENTS
800
800
OTHER INCOME
400
400
TRANSFER
PAYMENTS
U200
200
1978
1979
1980
1982
1981
1983
1986
1985
1984
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS
[Billions of dollars; monthly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]
Period
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985 r
1985: Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct r
Nov r
Dec r
1986: Jan r.
Feb"
Total
personal
income
1,812.4
2,033.9
2,258.4
2,520.9
2,670.8
2,836.4
3,111.9
3,293.5
3,247.2
3,258.2
3,288.6
3,271.2
3,280.5
3,290.0
3,295.5
3,309.9
3,330.8
3,347.9
3,384.3
3,387.1
3,406.3
Wage and
salarj
Proprietors ' income 3
Other labor
Farm
ments
1,119.3
1,252.1
1,372.0
1,510.3
1,586.1
1,675.8
1,834.9
1,960.5
1,916.5
1,930.9
1,940.5
1,946.8
1,958.5
1,959.8
1,969.3
1,981.2
1,991.5
2,003.6
2,022.2
2,028.6
2,038.9
107.7
122.7
138.4
150.3
163.6
179.5
193.4
206.4
200.9
202.2
203.5
204.8
206.1
207.3
208.5
209.5
210.5
211.5
212.4
213.3
214.3
27.0
31.7
20.5
30.7
24.6
14.3
149.2
160.1
160.1
156.1
150.9
178.0
32.1
21.2
32.9
23.8
40.4
14.4
13.8
12.2
11.6
12.9
17.5
21.0
31.4
16.0
18.2
201.6
221.0
213.1
215.2
216.9
218.6
218.8
222.1
224.8
228.9
227.2
226.9
228.7
233.0
236.0
1
The total of wage and salary disbursements and other labor income differs from compensation of
employees (see p. 4) in that it excludes employer contributions for social insurance and the^excess of
wage accruals over wage disbursements.
2
Consists of employer contributions to private pension, health, and welfare funds; workers' injury
compensation; directors' fees; and a few other minor items.
3
With inventor,- valuation and capital consumption adjustments.
Nonfarm
Rental
income of
persons 4
Personal
dividend
income
9.3
5.6
6.6
13.3
13.6
12.8
10.8
13.8
43.0
48.1
52.9
61.3
63.9
68.0
10.9
11.7
12.8
13.9
14.9
15.5
16.2
11.7
16.0
13.9
17.8
18.1
18.2
74.6
78.9
77.9
78.3
78.6
78.7
78.8
78.9
79.1
79.2
79.4
79.9
80.1
80.9
82.3
Personal
interest
income
182.5
221.4
271.9
335.4
369.7
385.7
442.2
456.3
463.0
463.8
462.7
461.0
457.9
453.3
449.8
448.6
450.1
451.7
452.4
452.9
453.2
Transfer
payments 5
244.0
273.1
324.7
368.1
410.6
442.2
454.7
484.5
478.2
479.5
480.9
481.2
480.9
490.0
486.0
488.4
489.8
491.4
492.5
501.5
503.0
4
Less:
Personal
contributions
for social
insurance
69.8
81.0
88.6
104.5
112.3
119.8
132.4
149.1
146.2
147.2
147.6
148.1
149.1
149.1
149.7
150.4
151.1
151.9
153.1
157.2
157.8
Nonfarm
personal
income 6
1,769.3
1,983.1
2,215.8
2,465.6
2,618.7
2,795.3
3,053.3
3,246.1
3,188.0
3,208.2
3,221.9
3,230.5
3,240.5
3,251.9
3,258.1
3,271.2
3,287.5
3,301.0
3,326.9
3,345.0
3,362.0
With capital consumption adjustment.
Consists mainly of social insurance benefits, direct relief, and veterans payments.
Personal income exclusive of farm proprietors' income, farm wages, farm other labor incom
and agricultural net interest.
5
6
Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analvsis.
DISPOSITION OF PERSONAL INCOME
Real per capita disposable personal income rose in the fourth quarter of 1985, after a decline in the third quarter.
The decline in the third quarter to a large extent reflected the delay and catchup in income tax refunds in the first
and second quarters.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS * (RATIO SCALE)
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS * (RATIO SCALE)
3,000
3,000
6,000
6,000
4,000
4,000
1985
* SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS
SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE
,
Period
Personal
income
Equals:
Disposable
personal
income
Personal
tax and
nontax
Less:
Personal
outlays l
Equals:
Personal
saving
Per c apita
disposable personal
mcc me
Current
dollars
1982
dollars
Billions of dol ars
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985 r.
1,812.4
2,033.9
2,258.4
2,520.9
2,670.8
2,836.4
3,111.9
3,293.5
261.1
304.7
340.5
393.3
409.3
411.1
441.8
492.7
1,551.2
1,729.3
1,917.9
2,127.6
2,261.4
2,425.4
2,670.2
2,800.8
Per capitii personal
consulnption
expen itures
Current
dollars
1982
dollars
110.2
118.0
136.8
159.4
153.9
133.2
172.5
129.0
6,968
7,682
8,421
9,243
9,724
10,328
11,263
11,703
9,735
9,829
9,722
9,769
9,725
9,942
10,412
10,483
Q
real per
capita
disposable
.
percent of
disposable
personal
Population,
including
Armed
Forces
abroad
(thousands) 2
Per cent
Do lars
1,441.1
1,611.3
1,781.1
1,968.1
2,107.5
2,292.2
2,497.7
2,671.8
ercen
6,304
6,960
7,607
8,320
8,818
9,493
10,221
10,790
8,808
8,904
8,783
8,794
8,818
9,138
9,448
9,665
3.8
1.0
— 1.1
.5
-.5
2.2
4.7
.7
7.1
6.8
7.1
7.5
6.8
5.5
6.5
4.6
222,629
225,106
227,754
230,182
232,549
234,829
237,067
239,317
Seas anally adju sted annual rates
1982: HI
IV
2,683.6
2,729.2
405.0
411.1
2,278.6
2,318.1
2,122.6
2,174.9
156.0
143.1
9,786
9,929
9,720
9,749
8,871
9,068
8,812
8,904
-0.7
1.2
6.8
6.2
232,851
233,466
1983:
2,752.8
2,805.7
2,852.4
2,934.8
407.4
418.0
404.4
414.4
2,345.5
2,387.7
2,447.9
2,520.4
2,205.2
2,271.3
2,319.0
2,373.3
140.3
116.4
129.0
147.1
10,024
10,182
10,412
10,693
9,793
9,846
9,982
10,145
9,172
9,424
9,591
9,785
8,960
9,114
9,195
9,283
1.8
2.2
5.6
6.7
6.0
4.9
5.3
5.8
233,981
234,509
235,117
235,707
3,033.8
3,083.5
3,144.2
3,186.2
423.6
433.6
447.5
462.4
2,610.2
2,649.9
2,696.7
2,723.8
2,428.7
2,487.4
2,515.2
2,559.4
181.6
162.6
181.5
164.5
11,050
11,193
11,362
11,44,7
10,358
10,399
10,451
10,441
9,985
10,198
10,276
10,423
9,359
9,474
9,452
9,506
8.7
1.6
2.0
-.4
7.0
6.1
6.7
6.0
236,222
236,742
237,349
237,953
3,240.9
3,280.1
3,298.5
3,354.3
501.7
462.4
498.2
508.5
2,739.2
2,817.7
2,800.2
2,845.9
2.608.4
2,650.6
2,697.6
2,730.6
130.9
167.2
102.6
115.2
11,487
11,790
11,687
11,847
10,411
10,595
10,447
10,479
10,588
10,726
10,877
10,969
9,597
9,639
9,723
9,702
-1.1
7.3
-5.5
1.2
4.8
5.9
3.7
4.0
238,469
238,985
239,605
240,207
I
II
m
IV
1984: I
n
HI
IV
1985: I
n
mr
IV ....
1
Indiides persona1 consumption expenditures, interest paid by consumers to business and personal transfer payments to foreigners (net).
2
Annual data are averages of quarterly data, which are averages for the period.
Source: Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis and Bureau of the Census).
FARM INCOME
In tKe third quarter of 1985, according to revised estimates, gross farm income fell $12.9 billion (annual rate) and
net farm income fell $10.8 billion.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS * (RATIO SCALE)
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS * (RATIO SCALE)
240
240
200
200
160
••••». S
r
-^
1r--—
" ^^^^«- -^ f^"
1
160
^
GRO SS FARM
^ INCC ME
120
120
—^
^
80
80
60
60
NE ' FARM INCOrv\E
40
V
/
*•
_
/ **^«
' — ss
/
N
•-
s
\
-••
\ ~s
1
\
\t
t
*
t
\ \ \
1977
1
1
1
1978
1
1
1979
1
/
/
\
40
/ \
/
\ /
\N
S
\
\
\
\
\
/
\
/
*•-
'/
/
1
1
\ |
I'M
1 1 1
1980
1981
1
1
1982
1
\
i
t
.•'
\
/
*
i
\
/
\ t
\ I
\i
10
1
.
/^' "*'' «
1
N
/
20
l\
/
X
/
»
1
|V|
1
1983
20
10
1 1 1
1
1984
1
1
1985
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS
* SEASONALLY ADJUS TED ANNUAL RATES
SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE
[Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]
Income of farm operators from farmiig
(jross farm incom 3
Net farai income
Cas h marketing rece pts
Total l
Total
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1983: I
n
m
IV
1984: I
n
m
TV
1985: I rr
nr
m
128.4
150.7
149.6
166.0
161.6
150.6
174.0
112.2
131.5
Livestock and
products
inventory
changes 2
53.0
139.8
142.1
142.9
136.3
141.8
59.2
69.2
68.0
69.2
70.3
69.4
72.7
62.3
71.8
72.9
72.7
66.8
69.1
2.1
5.0
-5.9
5.8
-1.4
-10.6
7.8
101.0
119.0
129.4
152.9
143.6
151.7
154.3
143.2
133.0
141.2
127.6
71.0
68.9
67.9
70.0
72.2
64.1
73.3
57.6
-10.6
-13.9
-12.9
-4.9
175.7
167.3
173.7
179.8
139.3
139.0
141.5
147.6
75.5
70.8
71.2
73.5
63.8
68.2
70.3
74.2
170.1
162.5
149.6
140.7
134.7
134.9
72.3
67.5
68.7
68.4
67.2
66.2
1
Cash marketing receipts and inventory changes plus Government payments, other farm cash
income, and nonmoney income furnished by farms,
2
Physical changes in end-of-year inventory of crop and livestock commodities valued at average
prices during the year.
Crops
Production
expenses
3
Current
dollars
1982 dollars 3
136.1
136.9
135.6
139.5
31.7
20.2
29.8
24.6
15.0
34.5
38.0
40.3
23.6
31.8
24.6
14.5
31.9
135.1
134.9
135.5
136.9
17.8
8.7
16.2
17.3
17.4
8.5
15.5
16.4
2.0
8.7
10.3
10.2
139.2
140.2
140.0
138.5
36.5
27.0
33.6
41.2
34.2
25.1
30.9
37.6
2.4
-1.7
-4.0
137.1
135.1
133.0
32.9
27.4
16.6
29.8
24.6
14.8
27.4
Income in current dollars divided bv the GNP implicit price deflator (1982 = 100).
NOTE.—Data include net Commodity Corporation loans and operator households.
Sources: Department of Agriculture and Department of Commerce.
CORPORATE PROFITS
In the fourth quarter of 1985, according to preliminary estimates, corporate profits before tax rose $11.2 billion
(annual rate) and after-tax profits rose $8.4 billion.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
320
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
320
280
240
200
40
SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS
[Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]
Prc fits (before t ix) with inve ntory valuati }n adjustmen t
1
Profits after ta X
Doinestie indust les
Nonfinancial
Period
Total
2
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985 r
1982: HI
IV
208.2
214.1
194.0
202.3
159.2
195.0
232.3
226.1
161.6
150.7
1983: I
163.7
190.5
207.3
218.7
234.4
241.8
226.5
226.3
220.6
220.9
233.2
229.8
n
m
IV
1984: I
n
in
IV
1985: I
n
m
IV
1
2
Total
186.0
180.4
159.6
173.8
131.2
164.2
200.1
194.2
133.0
121.6
136.2
161.1
174.4
185.1
201.0
212.3
193.3
193.7
189.4
189.3
203.0
195.1
Financial
Total 3
29.1
27.8
21.0
156.8
152.6
138.6
16.5
11.8
22.7
19.2
22.5
12.4
18.7
22.0
25.0
22.4
21.2
157.3
119.4
141.6
180.9
171.7
120.6
102.9
114.2
136.1
152.0
163.9.
180.2
191.9
176.1
175.3
170.2
166.7
179.2
170.5
20.8
20.4
17.2
18.4
19.2
22.5
23.8
24.7
See p. 4 for profits with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments.
Includes rest of the world, not shown separately.
Manufacturing
88.7
87.5
77.1
88.5
58.0
71.3
88.5
78.2
64.3
46.8
52.3
64.6
78.9
89.2
94.2
94.9
82.2
82.7
77.3
73.4
79.7
Profits
before tax
Tax
liability
233.5
257.2
237.1
226.5
169.6
205.0
237.6
226.8
83.5
88.0
84.8
81.1
63.1
75.2
93.6
85.9
64.3
59.8
58.9
73.8
84.1
84.0
99.1
100.6
87.4
87.4
83.4
82.3
87.4
90.4
Whole
sale and
retail
trade
27.3
28.7
21.6
32.5
34.6
39.1
50.7
49.5
32.9
33.6
32.6
40.8
39.9
43.1
46.8
52.7
51.5
51.8
48.7
50.6
53.6
3
171.6
164.1
167.1
199.8
225.4
227.6
247.4
247.4
227.7
228.0
220.0
218.7
228.6
239.8
Total
150.0
169.2
152.3
145.4
106.5
129.8
144.0
140.9
107.3
104.3
108.2
126.0
141.3
143.6
148.3
146.7
140.3
140.6
136.6
136.4
141.1
149.5
Dividends
44.7
50.1
54.7
63.6
66.9
70.8
78.1
83.5
66.6
68.5
69.3
69.6
71.1
73.1
75.3
77.5
78.9
80.7
82.0
83.1
83.9
85.0
Includes industries not shown separately.
Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.
Undistributed
profits
105.2
119.1
97.6
81.8
39.6
59.0
65.9
57.4
40.7
35.8
38.9
56.4
70.3
70.6
73.1
69.2
61.3
60.0
54.6
53.3
57.3
64.5
Inventory
valuation
adjustment
-25.3
-43.2
-43.1
-24.2
— 10.4
-10.0
-5.4
-.6
-10.0
-13.4
-3.4
-9.3
-18.1
-8.9
-13.0
-5.6
-1.3
-1.6
.7
2.2
4.7
* 10.1
GROSS PRIVATE DOMESTIC INVESTMENT
According to revised estimates for the fourth quarter of 1985, business fixed investment rose $14.0 billion (annual
rate) from its third quarter level while residential investment outlays rose $5.1 billion. There was a $4.3 billion
decrease in inventories following an increase of $0.2 billion in the third quarter.
BULK3NS OF DOLLA RS
800
BIL LIONS OF DOL .ARS
SEASON* UY ADJUSTED ANNU AL RATES
I
700
700
—
600
—
-
'"H
GROSS 'RIVATE DOME STIC
1 MVESTMENT
1600
—
\
f***1^
^"xX,
.
vy/
""-"I
^
~/*
--
300
\.
r\
r-—'
!
>*.
f
/
J
h
L
-
"""" —
"~*~\"
_'•-" * NONRES|[5ENTIAL
— FIXED INVE STMENT
,'''
'400
s""
~
*. — — "
300
__--
___,~~- — '
200
^-.— -—• _.—-——
100
*v._--*^"
-"•»..
o
1
i 1
1977
^,.
\
\
\
1978
1
1
1 1 1
i
1
1
1
1981
1980
1979
V"--—N
CHANGE N BUSINESS ,
INVEf JTORIES
/
\
\
\ , ++
\'''
1
1
1
1982
\
1
200
_
_,.-- ••**
*--....
,
**•
-100
!
RESIDENTIAL
FIX ED INVESTMEN T
_
500
^ ** *
1
1983
SOURCE: DEPARTMEN T OF COMMERCE
inn
v
'
».
^
n
•
1 ! 1
1984
|
| |
-100
1985
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS
[Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]
Inixed investmen t
private
domestic
investment
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985 r.
1982: HI
rv
1983: I
n
HI
TV
1984: I
n
m
TV
1985: I
n
mr
IV .
Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.
Change iri business
mven .ones
Nonresidential
Total
Total
416.8
454.8
437.0
515.5
447.3
501.9
674.0
669.3
452.2
409.6
425.0
483.7
521.2
577.6
658.8
673.3
687.9
676.2
388.2
441.9
445.3
491.5
471.8
508.3
607.0
661.8
461.2
469.5
467.7
489.2
524.0
552.1
566.7
604.5
619.5
637.2
259.0
302.8
322.8
369.2
366.7
356.3
427.9
476.2
657.6
672.8
666.1
680.7
639.1
657.3
665.9
685.0
459.6
474.2
478.5
492.5
360.7
354.9
338.0
343.0
357.3
386.8
394.1
423.4
435.9
458.1
Structures
81.0
99.5
113.9
138.5
143.3
126.1
147.6
170.2
140.2
137.6
127.6
121.5
124.7
130.5
135.0
147.0
151.3
157.2
166.1
169.7
170.4
174.5
Producers'
durable
equipment
178.0
203.3
208.9
230.7
223.4
230.2
280,2
306.0
220.5
217.3
210.4
221.5
232.6
256.3
259.1
276.5
284.5
300.9
293.5
304.5
308.1
318.0
Eesidential
129.2
139.1
122.5
122.3
105.1
152.0
179.1
185.6
100.5
114.7
129.7
146.2
166.7
165.4
172.6
181.0
183.7
179.1
179.4
183.1
187.4
192.5
Total
28.6
13.0
-8.3
24.0
24.5
-6.4
67.1
7.5
-9.0
59.9
42.7
-5.5
2.8
25.5
92.1
68.9
68.3
39.0
18.5
15.5
.2
-4.3
Nonfarm
26.5
7.9
-2.4
18.3
-23.1
.8
58.0
11.8
12.4
-51.1
-33.7
1.8
15.5
19.4
71.6
61.2
62.8
36.4
14.2
10.8
3.1
19.0
EXPENDITURES FOR NEW PLANT AND EQUIPMENT
According to the Commerce Department October-November 1985 survey, business spending for new plant and
equipment for the year 1986 is expected to be 2.4 percent above the 1985 level. Spending in 1985 is expected to
be 8.4 percent above the 1984 level.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS (RATIO SCALE)
500
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS (RATIO SCALE)
500
SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES
400
400
ALL INDUSTRIES
300
300
200
200
r
NONMANUFACTURING -^
t>4-
-MANUFACTURING
100
100
80
80
60
60
40
40
-2/1-2/1
1978
1979
1980
1982
1981
1984
1983
1986
1985
_i//SURVEYED QUARTERLY
J/'SEE FOOTNOTE 4 BELOW
SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS
[Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]
Industries surveyed quarterly
No imanufactu •ing
M anufacturi !g
Period
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
19854
19864
1983: I
n
m
rv
1984: I
n
m
IV
1985: I
TJ 4
m4
IV
1986: I 44
U
All
industries
Total
Durable
Nondurable
Total >
Mining
Transportation
Public
utilities
Commercial
and
other
31.50
35.63
37.74
41.21
45.43
44.96
47.48
48.23
46.13
83.09
94.56
100.14
110.24
109.63
114.45
134.75
149.96
161.58
44.69
105.58
110.37
117.79
124.09
128.42
132.67
136.80
141.13
145.17
151.02
151.69
151.96
164.30
164.57
217.76
254.96
282.80
315.22
310.58
304.78
354.44
384.22
393.52
78.58
95.92
112.33
126.54
120.68
116.20
138.82
152.42
152.30
39.46
48.50
55.36
59.81
55.35
53.08
66.24
72.53
70.76
39.13
47.42
56.96
66.73
65.33
63.12
72.58
79.89
81.54
139.18
159.04
170.47
188.68
189.89
188.58
215.61
231.79
241.23
11.22
12.81
15.99
21.39
20.05
15.19
16.86
15.84
14.85
13.36
16.05
16.60
15.84
14.79
13.97
16.52
17.77
18.67
289.36
295.24
308.79
325.75
337.95
349.97
361.48
368.29
371.16
387.83
388.90
388.98
402.13
405.99
111.32
112.73
116.70
124.05
129.91
135.96
142.44
146.96
145.65
154.33
154.04
155.68
154.74
159.16
50.67
50.12
53.96
57.58
61.23
64.03
68.26
71.43
69.87
73.96
72.85
73.46
71.95
74.55
60.65
62.61
62.74
66.48
68.68
71.93
74.18
75.53
75.78
80.36
81.19
82.22
82.79
84.60
178.04
182.51
192.09
201.70
208.04
214.01
219.04
221.33
225.51
233.51
234.86
233.30
247.39
246.83
14.69
14.17
15.59
16.34
17.24
16.38
16.82
17.00
15.66
16.51
15.94
15.24
15.30
15.75
13.08
13.51
14.04
15.24
15.29
17.01
17.49
16.28
16.22
17.50
19.09
18.25
18.80
18.98
1
Excludes forestry, fisheries, and agricultural services; medical services; professional services;
social services and membership organizations; and real estate, which, effective with the April-May
1984 survey, are no longer surveyed quarterly. See last column ("nonmanufacturing surveyed annually") for data for these industries.
2
"AH industries" plus the part of nonmanufacturing that is surveyed annually.
10
Addenda
44.46
44.68
46.02
47.08
47.94
47.92
46.92
48.46
48.47
48.14
47.85
48.99
47.53
Total
nonfarm
busi-
245.34
284.94
314.47
349.26
347.47
343.35
398.99
Non manufactu ring
Manufacturing
78.58
95.92
112.33
126.54
120.68
116.20
138.82
152.42
152.30
111.32
112.73
116.70
124.05
129.91
135.96
142.44
146.96
145.65
154.33
154.04
155.68
154.74
159.16
Total
166.76
189.02
202.15
222.72
226.79
227.15
260.16
Surveyed
quarterly
139.18
159.04
170.47
188.68
189.89
188.58
215.61
231.79
241.23
Surveyed
annual-
ly 3
27.58
29.98
31.68
34.04
36.89
38.56
44.55
178.04
182.51
192.09
201.70
208.04
214.01
219.04
221.33
225.51
233.51
234.86
233.30
247.39
246.83
3
Consists of forestry, fisheries, and agricultural services; medical services; professional services;
social services and membership organizations; and real estate.
4
Planned capital expenditures as reported by business in late October and November 1985, corrected for biases.
Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.
EMPLOYMENT, UNEMPLOYMENT, AND WAGES
STATUS OF THE LABOR FORCE
In February, seasonally adjusted civilian employment fell 400,000, following an increase of the same magnitude in
January (after adjustment for a change in estimation procedures effective with January 1986 data). Unemployment
rose 700,000 in February.
MILLIONS OF PERSONS*
MILLIONS OF PERSONS*
120
— 4
1978
*16 YEARS Of AGE AND OVER
SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS
[Thousands of persons 16 years of age and over, except as noted; monthly data seasonally adjusted except as noted by NSA]
Pprinrl
enou
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1985: Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June....
July
Aug
Sept ....
Oct
Nov
Dec
1986: Jan*...
Feb
Noninstitutional
population
including
resident
Armed
Forces
NSA
166,460
169,349
171,775
173,939
175,891
178,080
179,912
179,219
179,368
179,501
179,649
179,798
179,967
180,131
180,304
180,470
180,642
180,810
181,361
181,512
rril i
NSA
1,597
1,604
1,645
1,668
1,676
1,697
1,706
1,703
1,701
1,702
1,705
1,702
1,704
1,726
1,732
1,700
1,702
1,698
1,691
1,691
T
h
f
? | *0rce
resident
Armed
Forces
106,559
108,544
110,315
111,872
113,226
115,241
117,167
116,685
117,036
116,958
117,044
116,726
116,976
117,069
117,522
117,814
117,832
117,927
118,477
118,779
Employment
including
resident
Armed
Forces
100,421
100,907
102,042
101,194
102,010
106,702
108,856
108,290
108,652
108,574
108,644
108,303
108,575
108,936
109,251
109,513
109,671
109,904
110,646
110,252
Nonagricultural
Civilian
labor force
104,962
106,940
108,670
110,204
111,550
113,544
115,461
114,982
115,335
115,256
115,339
115,024
115,272
115,343
115,790
116,114
116,130
116,229
116,786
117,088
1
Persons at work. Economic reasons include slack work, material shortages, inability to find fulltime work, etc.
2
Labor force as percent of noninstitutional population (both including resident Armed Forces).
3
Civilian labor force as percent of civilian rioninstUntional population.
Unempk>yment
Civilian ernployment
Resident
Armed
Total
98,824
99,303
100,397
99,526
100,834
105,005
107,150
106,587
106,951
106,872
106,939
106,601
106,871
107,210
107,519
107,813
107,969
108,206
108,955
108,561
Agricultural
3,347
3,364
3,368
3,401
3,383
3,321
3,179
3,325
3,314
3,353
3,284
3,140
3,120
3,095
3,017
3,058
3,070
3,151
3,299
3,096
Total
Part-time
for
economic
reasons 1
95,477
95,938
97,030
96,125
97,450
101,685
103,971
3,373
4,064
4,499
5,852
5,997
5,512
5,334
103,262
103,637
103,519
103.655
103,461
103,751
104,115
104,502
104,755
104,899
105,055
105,655
105,465
5,098
5,421
5,402
5,550
5,278
5,328
5,413
5,299
5,241
5,295
5,294
5,275
5,158
Total
6,137
7,637
8,273
10,678
10,717
8,539
8,312
8,395
8,384
8,384
8,400
8,423
8,401
8,133
8,271
8.301
8,161
8,023
7,831
8,527
15
weeks
and
over
1,241
1,871
2,285
3,485
4,210
2,737
2,305
2,413
2,400
2,374
2,274
2,328
2,329
2,274
2,307
2,277
2,205
2,188
2,056
2,340
Labor force
partici ation
rate (pe rcent)
„
Civilian J
64.0
64.1
64.2
64.3
64.4
64.7
65.1
65.1
65.2
65.2
65.2
64.9
65.0
65.0
65.2
65.3
65.2
65.2
65.3
65.4
63.7
63.8
63.9
64.0
64.0
64.4
64.8
64.8
64.9
64.8
64.8
64.6
64.7
64.7
64.8
65.0
64.9
64.9
65.0
65.1
iotal
* Data beginning January 1986 not strictly comparable with earlier data because of change in
estimation procedures.
Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.
11
SELECTED UNEMPLOYMENT RATES
In February, the seasonally adjusted overall unemployment rate rose to 7.2 percent (from 6.6 percent in January)
and the civilian unemployment rate rose to 7.3 percent (from 6.7 percent in January).
PERCENT* (SEASONALLY ADJUSTED)
PERCENT* (SEASONALLY ADJUSTED)
25
25
,\
\
20
TEENAGERS
(16-19)
20
BLACK
^?A..,A
15
15
BLACK
AND OTHER
10
MEN 20 YEARS
AND OVER _
10
ALL CIVILIAN WORKERS
J
. WOME N 20 YEARS
AND OVER
WHITE
iimlnm imiliim I t l l l l l l l l l
Illllllllll Illllllllll Illllllllll
1982
1983
1984
1985
1982
1986
1983
1984
1985
1986
'UNEMPLOYMENT AS PERCENT OF CIVILIAN LABOR FORCE IN GROUP SPECIFIED.
SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS
[Monthly data seasonally adjusted]
Unempl oyment ra te (percen t
Period
Unemployment
rate,
all
workers 1
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
5.8
7.0
7.5
9.5
1985: Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June ....
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
1986: Jan
Feb
B v sex and age
of civilia n labor force in group)
By s elected grou )S
By race
\n
All
civilian
workers
5.8
7.1
7.6
9.7
9.6
7.5
Men
20 years
and over
4.2
Women
20 years
and
over
Both
sexes
16-19
years
White
Black
Experienced
wage and
salary
workers
Married
men,
spouse
present
12.3
14.3
15.6
18.9
19.5
15.9
15.1
5.5
6.5
6.2
11.3
13.1
14.2
17.3
17.8
14.4
13.7
6.9
7.3
9.3
9.2
7.1
6.8
2.8
4.2
4.3
6.5
6.5
4.6
4.3
6.8
8.3
8.1
6.8
6.6
16.1
17.8
19.6
23.2
22.4
18.9
18.6
5.1
6.3
6.7
8.6
8.4
5.7
6.4
Black
and
other
Women
who
maintain
families
8.3
9.2
Fulltime
workers
Parttime
workers
5.3
6.9
7.3
9.6
9.5
7.2
6.8
8.8
8.8
9.4
10.5
10.4
9.3
8.8
9.5
9.7
7.2
5.9
6.3
8.8
8.9
6.6
6.2
7.2
7.2
7.2
7.2
7.2
7.2
6.9
7.0
7.0
6.9
6.8
7.3
7.3
7.3
7.3
7.3
7.3
7.1
7.1
7.1
7.0
6.9
6.3
6.2
6.3
6.1
6.4
6.2
6.0
6.1
6.1
6.0
5.9
6.7
6.7
6.7
6.8
6.7
6.6
6.6
6.7
6.4
6.4
6.2
18.4
18.2
17.9
18.8
18.6
19.3
17.5
18.1
19.8
18.4
18.8
6.2
6.3
6.3
6.2
6.4
6.3
6.1
6.1
6.1
5.9
5.9
14.4
13.8
13.8
13.9
13.2
13.5
12.8
13.7
13.5
14.1
13.4
16.0
15.2
15.2
15.4
14.4
15.0
14.1
15.2
14.9
15.6
14.9
6.9
6.8
6.8
6.8
6.9
6.9
6.7
6.8
6.7
6.6
6.5
4.4
4.3
4.3
4.0
4.6
4.4
4.1
4.3
4.2
4.3
4.3
10.9
10.3
10.7
10.8
9.4
7.0
6.9
6.9
6.9
6.9
7.0
6.8
6.8
6.8
6.7
6.6
6.6
7.2
6.7
7.3
5.7
6.2
6.1
6.7
18.4
19.0
5.7
6.4
12.8
13.3
14.4
14.8
6.3
6.8
4.3
4.5
9.9
9.9
6.4
6,9
9.5
7.4
7.1
1
Unemployed as percent of total labor force including resident Armed Forces.
Aggregate hours lost by the unemployed and persons on part time for economic reasons as percent of potentially available labor force hours.
2
10.4
11.7
12.2
10.3
10.4
9.9
10.3
10.8
11.3
10.4
10.0
Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.
9.3
Labor
force
time lost
(percent) 2
6.3
7.9
8.5
11.0
10.9
8.6
8.1
9.5
9.4
9.0
9.3
9.6
8.8
9.0
8.2
8.2
8.2
8.3
8.2
8.2
8.1
8.1
7.9
7.9
7.8
8.4
9.4
7.6
8.1
10.0
SELECTED MEASURES OF UNEMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT
INSURANCE PROGRAMS
In February, the percentages of unemployed persons who had been out of work for less than 5 weeks and for
5-14 weeks fell, while the percentages out of work for 15-26 weeks and for 27 weeks and over rose. The mean
and the median duration of unemployment rose.
PERCENT DISTRIBUTION*
70
PERCENT DISTRIBUTION*
70
REASON FOR UNEMPLOYMENT
DURATION OF UNEMPLOYMENT
A ^
60
60
"\
50
50
JOB LOSERS
40
^~
LESS THAN
5 WEEKS
V^ V
A.-*
40
5-14
WEEKS
30
30
REENTRANTS
27 WEEKS
AND OVER
20
NEW ENTRANTS
10
10
15-26
WEEKS
iim
1982
JOB LEAVERS
Illllllllll
1983
1985
1984
Illllllllll
Illllllllll
1986
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
'SEASONALLY ADJUSTED
SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS
[Monthly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted]
Be ason for inemploy ment:
percent distributi }n
Dur ation of i nemplojTnent
I'ercent d stributioii
Unemploy-
Stat e
progra ms
Numb er of
wee ks
Insured
unemployment,
all
regular
programs
(unadjusted) '
Less
than
5
weeks
5-14
weeks
15-26
weeks
27
weeks
and
over
Average
(mean)
Medi-
Job
losers
Job
leavers
Reentrants
New
entrants
7,637
8,273
10,678
10,717
8,539
8,312
43.1
41.7
36.4
33.3
39.2
42.1
32.3
30.7
31.0
27.4
28.7
30.2
13.8
13.6
16.0
15.4
12.9
12.3
10.7
14.0
16.6
23.9
19.1
15.4
11.9
13.7
15.6
20.0
18.2
15.6
6.5
6.9
8.7
10.1
7.9
6.8
51.7
51.6
58.7
58.4
51.8
49.8
11.7
11.2
7.9
7.7
9.6
10.6
25.2
25.4
22.3
22.5
25.6
27.1
11.4
11.9
11.1
11.3
13.0
12.5
3,350
3,047
4,061
3,396
2,480
488
460
583
438
378
3,837
3,410
4,594
3,775
2,565
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
8,395
8,384
8,384
8,400
8,423
8,401
8,133
8,271
8,301
8,161
8,023
41.7
42.1
41.9
42.6
41.6
42.1
41.7
42.0
41.6
42.7
42.1
29.6
29.5
29.9
30.6
30.4
30.0
30.6
30.2
30.8
30.2
30.7
12.7
12.6
12.2
12.5
12.4
12.9
12.8
12.5
12.8
11.0
12.1
16.0
15.9
16.0
14.3
15.5
14.9
15.0
15.3
14.8
16.1
15.1
16.0
15.9
16.1
15.0
15.5
15.5
15.5
15.5
15.4
15.7
15.4
7.1
7.0
6.8
6.7
6.8
7.1
6.9
7.0
6.9
6.9
50.4
49.6
50.3
47.6
49.6
50.2
50.8
50.2
49.1
50.0
48.8
10.3
10.2
10.1
10.4
11.7
10.7
10.7
10.3
11.1
9.9
10.9
26.6
27.4
27.1
28.4
26.6
26.1
26.9
28.3
27.2
27.2
27.6
12.6
12.8
12.5
13.6
12.1
13.1
11.5
11.1
12.7
12.9
12.8
2,646
2,620
2,575
2,562
2,581
2,609
2,585
2,560
2,535
2,560
2,564
411
394
390
389
398
391
386
384
380
382"
391
3,339
3,113
2,766
2,455
2,337
2,523
2,361
2,212
2,227
2,468
2,884
Jan
Feb
7,831
8,527
42.4
41.8
31.3
30.8
12.4
13.5
13.9
14.0
14.9
15.3
6.8
6.9
48.0
48.7
12.7
11.7
26.3
26.8
13.0
12.8
2,591
2,610
370
392
(thousands)
Insured
unemployment
Initial
claims
Weekly average, th ousands
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1985:
1986:
1
Includes State (50 States, District of Columbia, Puerto Rico, and Virgin Islands), ex-servicemen (UCX), Federal (UCFE), and railroad (RR) programs. Also includes Federal and State extended benefit programs. Does not include Federal supplemental compensation program.
7.2
Source: Department of Labor (Bureau of Labor Statistics and Employment and Training Adir
tration).
13
NONAGRICULTURAL EMPLOYMENT
Total nonagricultural employment as measured by the payroll survey rose 226,000 in February.
MILLIONS OF PERSONS* (ENLARGED SCALE)
MILLIONS OF PERSONS*
00
rrr^
—
1
p
—
-
~
ALL NONAGRIClJLTURAL
E STABLISHME NTS
"
"
80
_„.—•
— ~""SERV ICE-PRODUC ING
INDUSTRIES
60 —
—
40
—
GOC5DS-PRODUC ING
INDUSTRIES
\^_
30
iiiiliniT ITTriTiiiii
?0
1982
1983
Illllllllll Illllllllll lllllllillh
1984
1986
'
1985
1986
'SEASONALLY ADJUSTED
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS
SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR
[Thousands of wage and salary workers;
l
seasonally adjusted]
Se rvice-produ ing industr es
Goods-] roducing in dustries
Total
nonagricultural
employment
Period
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985r
1985:
89,823
90,406
91,156
:... 89,566
90,196
94,461
97,699
Feb
Mar
Apr
May....
June ...
July....
Aug....
Sept....
Oct
Nov ....
Dec r ..
M anufacturin g
Total 2
26,461
25,658
25,497
23,813
23,334
24,730
25,057
Construction
Nondurable
goods
Durable
goo s
4,463
4,346
4,188
3,905
3,948
4,345
4,662
21,040
20,285
20,170
18,781
18,434
19,412
19,426
12,760
12,187
12,109
11,039
10,732
11,522
11,566
8,280
8,098
8,061
7,741
7,702
7,890
7,860
63,363
64,748
65,659
65,753
66,862
69,731
72,643
11,675
11,651
11,608
11,586
11,560
11,509
11,519
11,449
11,493
11,512
11,534
7,886
7,875
7,859
7,840
7,838
7,842
7,843
7,830
7,845
7,869
7,899
71,529
71,854
72,030
72,355
72,463
72,727
72,962
73,255
73,508
73,712
73,931
5,272
5,269
5,278
5,327
5,342
5,350
11,546
11,521
7,914
7,910
74,190
74,484
5,360
5,350
25,062
25,056
25,090
25,066
25,010
24,980
25,015
24,962
25,051
25,089
25,155
4,525
4,553
4,641
4,658
4,638
4,660
4,688
4,721
4,753
4,754
4,770
19,561
19,526
19,467
19,426
19,398
19,351
19,362
19,279
19,338
19,381
19,433
1986: Jan r... 99,507
Feb".. 99,733
25,317
25,249
4,909
4,884
19,460
19,431
1
Includes all full- and part-time wage and salary workers in mmagricultural establishments who
worked during or received pay for any part of the pay period which includes the 12th of the month.
Excludes proprietors, self-employed persons, domestic servants, and personnel of the Armed Forces.
Total derived from this tahie not comparable with estimates of nonagricultural employment of the
civilian labor force, shown on p, 11, which include proprietors, self-employed persons, and domestic
servants; which count persons as emploved when they are not at work because of industrial dis-
Transportation
and
public
utilities
Total
96,591
96,910
97,120
97,421
97,473
97,707
97,977
98,217
98,559
98,801
99,086
14
Total
5,136
5,146
5,165
5,082
4,954
5,171
5,300
5,301
5,295
5,302
5,282
5,317
Wholesale
trade
Retail
trade
Finance,
insurance,
and real
estate
2,773
2,866
2,772
2,739
2,774
2,807
2,875
6,048
6,068
21,480
21,644
21,723
21,813
21,856
21,926
22,073
22,155
22,244
22,365
22,450
16,111
16,143
16,158
16,213
16,213
16,341
16,343
16,452
16,486
16,484
16,513
2,834
2,850
2,859
2,873
2,872
2,878
2,886
2,904
2,892
2,904
2,914
6,100
6,128
22,535
22,654
16,481
16,495
2,910
2,914
4,975
5,697
5,805
5,830
5,833
5,848
17,160
17,249
17,280
17,392
17,425
17,453
17,514
17,539
17,610
17,640
17,702
5,809
5,835
5,858
5,888
5,906
5,932
5,959
5,987
5,874
5,900
17,840
17,957
5,791
Federal
15,947
16,241
16,031
15,837
15,869
15,984
16,295
14,989
15,035
15,189
15,179
15,613
16,584
17,425
5,733
5,748
5,768
5,773
Total
17,112
17,890
18,619
19,036
19,694
20,761
21,930
5,204
5,275
5,358
5,278
5,268
5,550
5,769
5,714
Gover nment
Services
5,160
5,298
5,341
5,468
5,682
5,924
6,011
putes, bad weather, etc., even if they are not paid for the time off; and which are based on a sample
of the working-age population, whereas the estimates in this table are based on reports from emploving establishments.
^ Includes mining, not shown separately,
Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.
AVERAGE WEEKLY HOURS AND HOURLY EARNINGS
PRIVATE NONAGRICULTURAL INDUSTRIES
[For production or nonsupervisory workers; monthly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted]
Average gi oss hourlv
earn ings
Average weekh
hours
Period
Manufa cturing
Total
private
nonagricultural '
Total
Total
private
nonagricultural '
Overtime
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
35.8
35.7
35.3
35.2
34.8
35.0
35.3
35.1
40.4
40.2
39.7
39.8
38.9
40.1
40.7
40.5
3.6
3.3
1985: Feb
Mar
Apr
Mav
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec r.
35.1
35.2
35.0
35.1
35.1
35.0
35.1
35.1
35.1
35.0
35.1
40.1
40.4
40.2
40.4
40.4
40.3
40.6
40.7
40.7
40.7
41.0
Jan r
Feh"
35.2
35.0
40.9
40.8
1986:
Manufacturing
$5.69
6.16
6.66
Adjust d hourlv earnings index — total private
nonagric ultural 2
Ind ex,
1977 = 100
1977
dollars 3
Current
dollars
7.25
7.68
8.02
8.33
8.58
$6.17
6.70
7.27
7.99
8.49
8.83
9.18
9.52
108.2
116.8
127.3
138.9
148.5
155.4
160.7
3.3
3.2
3.4
3.1
3.2
3.2
3.3
3.3
3.4
3.4
3.6
8.49
8.52
8.54
8.55
8.59
8.57
8.60
8.65
8.64
8.67
8.74
9.41
9.43
9.48
9.49
9.51
9.53
9.56
9.56
9.58
9.61
9.66
3.5
3.4
8.68
8.72
9.62
9.66
2.8
2.8
2.3
3.0
3.4
3.3
Percent chang e from a vear
earlie r 4 5
Current
dollars
1977 dollars
8.2
7.9
9.0
9.1
165.5
100.5
97.4
93.5
92.6
93.4
94.9
94.8
94.3
6.9
4.6
3.4
3.0
0.5
-3.1
-4.0
-1.0
.9
1.6
-.1
-.5
164.0
164.4
164.8
164.9
165.7
165.4
165.7
166.7
166.4
167.1
168.4
94.7
94.5
94.4
94.3
94.5
94.2
94.2
94.6
94.1
94.1
94.4
3.3
3.2
2.9
3.1
3.2
2.7
3.0
3.0
3.0
3.0
3.1
-.2
-.7
-1.2
-.9
-.8
-1.0
.0
.4
.1
-.4
5
167.5
168.5
93.6
94.6
2.8
2.8
-1.0
-.2
AVERAGE WEEKLY EARNINGS
PRIVATE NONAGRICULTURAL INDUSTRIES
[For production or nonsupervisory workers; monthly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted]
Percent cr ange from
a year earlier,
total private n onagricultural 5
Avera ge gross weekly ea rnmgs
Period
Current dollars
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
Manufacturing
Total jrivate
nonagnc ultural '
Construction
Retail trade
Current dollars
1977 dollars 3
1977 dollars
Current dollars
$203.70
219.91
235.10
255.20
267.26
280.70
294.05
301.16
$189.31
183.41
172.74
170.13
168.09
171.26
173.48
171.60
$249.27
269.34
288.62
318.00
330.26
354.08
373.63
385.56
$318.69
342.99
367.78
399.26
426.82
442.97
456.92
462.20
$130.20
138.62
147.38
158.03
163.85
171.05
176.40
177.31
7.8
8.0
6.9
8.5
4.7
5.0
4.8
2.4
0.2
-3.1
-5.8
-1.5
-1.2
1.9
1.3
— 1.1
1985:
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec r .
298.00
299.90
298.90
300.11
301.51
299.95
301.86
303.62
303.26
303.45
306.77
172.15
172.46
171.19
171.69
172.00
170.81
171.61
172.32
171.62
170.86
171.96
377.34
380.97
381.10
383.40
384.20
384.06
388.14
389.09
389.91
391.13
396.06
463.81
465.58
465.88
460.60
454.96
459.85
459.75
466.17
464.65
459.27 458.56
177.01
177.31
176.42
178.20
177.61
176.72
176.42
177.60
176.71
177.00
177.56
2.1
3.3
2.1
2.4
2.8
1.8
2.6
2.4
3.0
2.4
2.6
-1.3
-.6
-2.0
-1.5
-1.2
-1.9
-.4
-.3
.1
-1.0
-1.0
1986:
Jan r
Feb p .
305.54
305.20
170.69
171.27
393.46
392.20
471.75
444.68
177.30
176.69
3.1
2.6
-.6
-.4
1
4
2
5
Also includes other private industry groups shown on p. 14.
Adjusted for interindustry employment shifts and for overtime in manufacturing.
Current dollar index (or earnings) divided by the consumer price index for urban wage earners
and clerical workers (on a 1977=100 base).
Monthly changes based on indexes to two decimal places.
Based on seasonally unadjusted data.
3
Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.
15
PRODUCTIVITY AND RELATED DATA, BUSINESS SECTOR
Output pt r hour of
all pe rsons
Period
Business
sector
Nonfarm
business
sector
Outj ut '
Business
sector
Hours of all
pers HIS 2
Nonfarm
business
sector
Business
sector
Compens ation per
hoi r 3
Nonfarm
business
sector
Business
sector
Nonfarm
business
sector
Real com pensation
per b our 4
Business
sector
Nonfarm
business
sector
Unit lab or costs
Implic t price
defla tor 5
Business
sector
Nonfarm
business
sector
Business
sector
Nonfarm
business
sector
107.0
19rf7 = 100; ( quarterly c ata seasoiial!y adjusted
1978
1979
1980
100.8
99.6
99.2
100.8
99.2
98.8
105.8
107.8
106.6
105.9
107.9
106.7
104.9
108.3
107.5
105.1
108.7
108.0
108.5
119.1
131.5
108,6
118.9
131.3
100.8
99.4
96.7
100.9
99.2
96.6
107.7
119.6
132.6
107.7
119.8
132.9
107.3
117.0
127.6
116.5
127.8
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
100.7
100.3
103.1
105.2
105.4
99.8
99.2
102.5
104.1
104.0
108.9
105.5
110.0
119.0
122.2
108.5
104.9
110.2
118.9
122.1
108.2
105.2
106.8
113.1
115.9
108.7
105.8
107.5
114.2
117.4
143.7
154.9
161.9
168.2
175.1
143.6
154.8
162.1
168.0
174.3
95.7
97.3
98.5
98.2
98.6
95.7
97.2
98.6
98.0
98.2
142.7
154.5
157.1
159.9
166.1
144.0
156.0
158.1
161.4
167.6
139.8
148.1
153.0
158.7
163.1
140.3
149.2
154.2
159.6
164.8
1982: in
IV
100.3
101.0
99.1
99.7
105.1
105.0
104.5
104.2
104.8
103.9
105.5
104.5
156.6
158.3
156.3
158.2
97.2
97.9
97.0
97.8
156.2
156.7
157.6
158.6
149.3
150.2
150.3
151.4
1983: I
II
102.3
103.5
103.1
103.6
101.3
102.8
102.9
103.0
106.6
109.3
110.8
113.4
106.2
109.3
111.4
113.8
104.2
105.6
107.5
109.5
104.8
106.3
108.2
110.5
160.1
161.5
162.1
164.1
160.4
161.6
162.3
164.0
99.0
98.7
98.1
98.3
99.1
98.8
98.2
98.2
156.6
156.0
157.2
158.4
158.3
157.2
157.7
159.1
151.1
152.0
153.7
154.9
152.3
153.6
154.8
156.1
104.9
105.5
105.3
105.0
104.0
104.5
104.2
103.8
117.1
119.2
119.6
120.1
117.1
119.2
119.5
120.0
111.6
113.0
113.6
114.4
112.6
114.0
114.7
115.6
166.1
167.5
169.1
170.4
165.9
167.4
168.8
170.1
98.3
98.2
98.2
98.1
98.1
98.1
98.0
97.9
158.4
158.7
160.6
162.3
159.6
160.1
162.0
163.9
156.6
158.0
159.4
160.8
157.1
158.8
160.5
161.9
105.3
105.5
105.9
105.1
104.1
104.2
104.3
103.4
121.2
121.9
122.6
123.0
121.1
121.8
122.6
123.0
115.1
115.6
115.8
117.0
116.3
116.9
117.5
118.9
172.4
174.3
176.1
177.6
172.1
173.7
175.0
176.4
98.5
98.5
98.9
98.7
98.3
98.2
98.3
98.1
163.8
165.2
166.3
169.0
165.3
166.8
167.8
170.5
161.6
162.7
163.5
164.5
163.0
164.5
165.5
166.1
m
IV
1984: I
II
in
IV
1985: I
II
in
IV
Pel cent change; quarte rly data a seasonal! y adjusted annual ra tes
1978
1979
1980
0.8
-1.2
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1.5
-.4
2.8
2.1
.2
Q
0.8
-1.6
-.4
5.8
1.9
-1.1
5.9
1.8
-1.1
4.9
3.2
-.8
5.1
3.5
-.7
8.5
9.7
10.5
8.6
9.5
10.5
0.8
-1.4
-2.7
0.9
-1.6
-2.7
7.7
11.1
10.8
7.7
11.2
11.0
7.3
9.1
9.0
7.0
8.9
9.7
1.0
2.1
3.1
4.3
8.2
2.7
1.7
-3.3
5.0
8.0
2.7
.7
-2.7
1.5
6.0
2.4
.7
2.7
1.6
6.3
2.8
9.2
7.8
4.5
3.9
4.1
9.4
7.7
4.7
3.7
3.7
-1.0
1.6
1.3
-.3
.5
-.9
i.5
1.5
-.6
.1
7.7
8.2
1.7
1.8
3.8
8.3
8.4
1.3
2.1
3.9
9.6
5.9
3.3
3.8
2.8
9.7
6.3
3.4
3.5
3.3
-3.4
-1.2
-3.4
-3.3
7.5
4.5
7.5
5.0
.1
2.9
.2
3.4
7.2
1.5
7.6
2.6
5.6
2.4
5.7
3.0
Q
3.3
1.6
O
-3.4
-3.5
.3
3.0
.0
2.4
-3.1
-.4
in
IV
5.1
4.9
-1.5
1.9
6.5
6.1
.4
.4
6.3
10.5
5.8
9.5
7.6
12.2
7.9
9.0
1.1
5.3
7.4
7.5
1.1
5.8
7.5
8.6
4.7
3.4
1.5
5.1
5.6
3.1
1.8
4.0
4.4
-.9
-2.6
.8
5.3
-1.1
-2.3
-.2
-1.4
3.1
3.1
g
-2.8
1.4
3.6
2.3
2.6
4.4
3.3
2.4
3.3
3.3
3.4
1984: I
II
HI
IV
5.1
2.5
-.8
-1.3
3.6
2.2
-1.3
j3
13.6
7.5
1.3
1.7
12.1
7.2
1.2
1.8
8.1
4.9
2.1
3.1
8.2
4.9
2.5
3.1
4.9
3.3
4.1
3.1
4.9
3.6
3.4
3.2
-.2
-.3
.2
-.6
2
.0
-.4
-.4
-.2
.8
4.9
4.5
1.2
1.3
4.8
4.6
4.4
3.7
3.6
3.5
2.4
4.4
4.4
3.6
1985:
1.0
.8
1.6
-3.1
1.0
.2
.4
-3.1
3.6
2.3
2.5
1.1
3.6
2.3
2.6
1.5
2.5
1.5
.9
4.3
2.6
2.1
2.1
4.7
4.8
4.4
4.2
3.4
4.7
3.8
2.8
3.3
1.5
.4
1.6
-.8
1.4
2
3.7
3.5
2.5
6.7
3.6
3.6
2.4
6.6
2.1
2.8
2.0
2.4
2.7
3.7
2.6
1.4
1982: III
IV
1983:
I
II
I
n
m
IV
1
Output refers to gross domestic product originating in the sector in 1982 dollars.
Hours of all persons engaged in the sector, including hours of proprietors and unpaid family
workers. Estimates based primarily on establishment data.
3
Wages and salaries of employees plus employers' contributions for social insurance and private
benefit plans. Also includes an estimate of wages, salaries, and supplemental payments for the selfemployed.
2
16
4
.3
-1.0
0
Hourly compensation divided by the consumer price index for all urban consumers.
Current dollar gross domestic product divided by constant dollar gross domestic product.
NOTE.—Data relate to all persons engaged in the sector.
Percent changes are from preceding period and are based on original data; they therefore may
differ slightly from percent changes based on indexes shown here.
Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.
5
PRODUCTION AND BUSINESS ACTIVITY
INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION AND CAPACITY UTILIZATION
Industrial production fell 0.6 percent in February, following a rise of 0.1 percent in January. The index for February
was 1.6 percent above its year-earlier level.
INDE X, 1977=100* (RATIOS CALE)
140
INDE X, 1977=100* (RATIOS CALE)
220
TOTAL INDUSTRIA L PRODUCT ION
—"~
120
>^
100
^^
200 _ FINAL PFJODUCTS
DEFEf vISE AND
180
S PACE
"
EQUIPMENT
-^
5
_
BUSINES
160
V S*^
EQUIPMEI •JT
p»
J
__
^^^^
I
iimliiiiilmiiliim
Minium
Illllllllll
lltllllllll
120 J-NT-
f *^—5^—
NONDl RABLE
'*S
/*** I
^^
.. ^*>M^^
\^^
>».--
^
^'
CONSUME*t
GOODS
100
lll|i|l|Ui
100
k^
l—-^'
^-X^^***"
^*g£ "
r<
f
__^»^"NjU
x^""
PRODUCTIC5N
140 ^MANUFACTURING
DURABLE
120
.-•••""'"""
140
•
||lll||llll Illllllllll Illllllllll
Illllllllll
1
PER CENT*
Illllllllll Illllllllll Illllllllll
90
140
_ MANUFACTURING CAPACITY JTILIZATIO N RATE
_ UTILITIE 5ANDMIN ING PROD UCTION
UTILITIES
120
\
. \
/
'^taS'^S *"v"*
"\^
*«M*rj"
100
Illllllllll
lllllllllli Illllllllll
1982
1983
80
x-v.
1984
fc...
j,*
^
•*~~^' -'1
\
I— MINING-
\
T^
70
Illllllltll Illllllllll
1985
60
iimlmiilmiiliim Illllllllll
1982^
| 1983
1986
1984
•SEASONALLY ADJUSTED
SOURCE: BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM
l|l|lllllll Illllllllll
1985
1986
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS
[Monthly data seasonally adjusted]
To tal
indu trial
produ ction
Period
Index,
1977=100
1977 proportion
100.0
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1985:
106.5
110.7
108.6
111.0
103.1
109.2
121.8
124.5
123.7
124.0
124.1
124.1
124.3
124.1
125.2
125.1
124.4
125.4
126.3
126.5
125.7
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov r .
1986:
1
Dec '
Jan *
Feb"
Output as percent of capacity.
Industry prot uction indexes , 1977 = 100
Capacity utilization
rate, pc rcent l
Manufacturing
Percent
change
from year
earlier
6.5
3.9
-1.9
2.2
-7.1
5.9
11.5
2.2
3.7
3.3
2.8
2.3
1.6
.7
1.3
1.5
1.4
1.6
2.4
2.3
1.6
Mining
Total
Durable
Utilities
Nondurable
84.21
49.10
35.11
9.83
5.96
107.1
111.5
108.2
110.5
102.2
110.2
123.9
127.1
125.8
126.3
126.6
126.6
126.7
126.9
128.2
127.7
127.2
128.4
129.2
129.7
128.8
108.2
113.9
109.1
111.1
99.9
107.7
124.8
128.2
127.2
128.0
128.2
127.9
127.6
127.9
129.4
128.3
127.7
129.2
129.8
129.8
128.8
105.5
108.2
107.0
109.7
105.5
113.7
122.5
125.6
123.8
123.9
124.3
124.7
125.5
125.6
126.6
126.9
126.4
127.3
128.3
129.4
128.9
103.6
106.4
112.4
117.5
109.3
102.9
110.9
109.0
109.5
110.5
109.6
109.8
110.6
108.7
108.3
108.4
108.4
106.9
107.5
107.5
104.3
103.1
105.9
107.3
107.1
104.8
105.2
110.9
113.2
115.8
113.9
113.6
113.7
113.4
110.7
110.3
113.2
112.4
112.2
114.6
112.8
114.4
Manufacturing
Industrial
materials
84.2
84.6
79.3
78.3
86.3
87.1
81.1
81.1
71.7
75.3
82.3
80.2
81.5
81.4
80.9
80.1
80.1
79.5
79.9
79.5
79.3
79.2
80.0
79.6
79.0
70.3
74.0
80.8
80.3
80.4
80.5
80.5
80.3
80.1
80.1
80.7
80.1
79.6
80.2
80.4
80.5
79.9
Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.
17
INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION—MAJOR MARKET GROUPS AND
SELECTED MANUFACTURES
[1977 — 100; monthly data seasonally adjusted]
Produ -ts
Mate rials
^inal produe s
Internlediate pro lucts
C onsumer go tds
Equipment
Period
Total
Total
Durable
goods
Nondurable goods
Total >
Business
Defense
and
space
equipment
Total
Construction
supplies
Total
Energy
supplies
1977 proportion
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985 r
44.77
10(5.9
111.0
112.2
115.2
109.5
114.7
127.8
132.0
25.52
104.3
103.9
102.7
104.1
101.4
109.3
118.2
120.7
6.89
18.63
19.25
14.34
3.67
12.94
5.95
6.99
103.7
99.9
88.4
89.7
82.9
98.5
112.6
112.9
104.5
105.4
108.1
109.3
108.3
113.3
120.2
123.6
110.3
120.4
124.7
129.9
120.2
121.7
140.5
147.0
112.2
124.7
125.1
127.6
113.6
115.4
134.9
141.2
101.2
105.6
115.4
119.8
133.0
143.1
157.9
173.6
106.9
110.8
106.9
107.3
101.7
111.2
124.9
130.6
106.9
108.7
100.6
98.6
88.3
100.6
114.0
118.9
106.9
112.7
112.3
114.7
113.1
120.3
134.2
140.6
42.28
105.9
110.3
105.3
107.7
96.7
102.8
114.6
114.7
101.1
104.1
105.5
104.7
101.2
98.4
104.0
104.4
1985:
Feb
Mar
Apr
Mav
June
Julv
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov r
Dec '
130.4
130.8
131.3
131.7
131.6
131.8
133.3
133.3
131.9
133.7
134.2
119.1
119.8
119.5
120.0
120.4
120.1
121.5
121.8
120.8
122.7
124.0
112.8
113.5
111.5
111.8
112.0
111.3
114.0
112.9
111.4
115.5
116.9
121.4
122.1
122.5
123.1
123.5
123.4
124.2
125.1
124.3
125.4
126.7
145.3
145.4
146.9
147.1
146.6
147.3
149.0
148.6
146.6
148.3
147.8
140.0
140.2
142.0
141.9
140.7
141.3
143.0
142.2
139.6
141.7
141.2
167.3
169.0
170.1
171.2
173.4
173.9
175.5
177.5
178.7
180.7
180.7
127.7
128.6
129.3
130.3
131.4
130.7
132.0
132.3
131.5
132.7
133.7
115.7
116.9
117.4
118.1
119.2
119.4
121.5
121.3
120.0
120.9
120.7
137.9
138.6
139.4
140.7
141.7
140.3
140.9
141.7
141.2
142.7
144.9
115.4
115.5
1 15.0
114.2
1 14.3
113.8
114.5
114.2
114.2
114.3
115.7
104.9
106.2
105.3
105.3
105.1
103.5
102.7
103.4
104.2
102.5
105.8
1986:
Jan r.
Feb"
134.6
133.6
124.3
124.4
116.7
117.6
127.2
126.9
148.1
145.9
142.4
141.3
179.5
177.6
134.8
134.8
123.3
122.5
144.7
115.4
114.5
104.0
1
11.69
104.0
Includes rigs and prefabs, not shown separate.
[1977—100; monthly data seasonally adjusted]
Ni ndurable nanufaetu res
Durable m mufactures
Transp ortation
equip ment
Priman metals
Period
Total
1977 proportion
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985 '
Iron and
steel
Fabricated
metal
products
Nonelectrical
machinerv
Electrical
machinery
Total
Motor
vehicles
and
parts
Printing and
publishing
Chemicals
and
products
Foods
7.96
3.49
6.46
9.54
7.15
9.13
5.25
2.30
2.79
4.54
107.5
108.0
86.3
92.5
57.5
66.1
73.5
70.5
105.7
109.4
101.8
101.6
86.6
89.1
102.8
107.9
111.7
122.6
123.3
129.8
115.6
118.3
142.0
146.4
112.9
125.7
130.3
134.1
128.4
143.8
172.4
169.3
106.3
108.3
96.9
95.1
87.6
99.2
113.6
123.2
104.6
95.9
71.1
71.6
66.8
85.8
105.6
112.8
102.4
102.0
92.9
90.1
82.8
100.2
109.1
112.9
103.1
98.3
97.3
96.1
87.3
95.3
102.8
101.9
107.8
112.7
115.1
118.6
120.2
129.8
147.9
155.4
8.0.5
106.8
111.4
106.4
112.6
103.8
114.0
121.7
127.1
104.3
106.7
111.4
113.7
114.9
120.4
127.1
131.0
109.1
109.5
110.9
112.2
113.5
113.0
114.8
115.9
116.5
115.6
116.5
103.1
101.3
100.2
100.3
99.2
100.6
100.4
101.8
102.6
103.9
106.5
150.3
152.6
154.2
155.4
156.7
154.3
156.3
156.2
157.0
159.0
161.7
125.8
126.5
125.8
126.7
126.4
126.4
128.2
129.0
127.9
128.0
128.3
129.4
128.5
130.8
131.4
131.8
132.2
132.6
132.5
130.7
131.4
132.1
107.8
162.4
161.4
129.4
133.5
Feb
Mar
Apr
Mav
June
Julv
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov r
Dec1:
80.2
81.8
81.4
76.4
78.3
79.0
82.0
80.3
83.1
83.6
81.4
68.5
73.2
71.9
65.4
67.6
68.7
71.6
69.7
74.4
75.3
71.9
107.6
108.6
109.1
108.3
107.4
107.3
107.8
107.5
108.4
107.9
108.8
144.9
146.5
148.9
149.1
145.6
147.5
149.2
146.5
143.0
145.6
145.9
173.2
173.1
168.9
169.3
169.5
165.7
166.1
165.1
165.1
168.9
171.9
120.5
120.8
120.7
120.9
121.8
123.7
126.8
126.2
124.5
126.5
126.8
112.5
111.3
110.9
110.5
110.5
112.8
116.8
115.3
111.7
114.5
115.4
1986:
Jan r
Feb"
83.4
81.5
73.5
109.7
109.0
144.6
143.5
167.9
166.6
129.0
128.4
118.1
118.8
Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.
Apparel
products
,5.33
107.0
108.5
90.4
95.0
65.8
73.0
82.4
80.6
1985:
18
Lumber
and
products
NEW CONSTRUCTION
[Monthly data seasonally adjusted]
Constructio n contracts 2
Private
Period
Total newconstruction
expenditures
Resi iential
Total
New housing
Total J
Commercial
and industrial
Other
Federal,
State, and
local
Total value
index
(1977=100)
Commercial
and industrial
floor space
(millions of
square feet)
I iillions of dollars
215.9
241.9
238.0
246.7
236.9
268.7
313.0
342.8
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
170.0
193.1
183.0
193.3
186.1
218.0
257.8
280.5
103.8
110.5
94.5
94.1
80.6
121.3
145.1
148.2
36.7
42.7
44.7
47.9
50.9
48.1
50.9
56.4
29.6
39.9
43.8
51.3
54.6
48.7
61.9
75.8
86.2
90.1
70.4
70.2
57.7
95.7
114.6
113.4
114.0
121.0
108.0
112.0
111.0
138.0
150.0
161.0
45.9
48.8
55.0
53.3
50.8
50.7
55.2
62.4
1986:
1,064
Annual rates
Annual rates
1985:
977
1,059
904
919
690
756
955
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
Mar
June
Julv
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
341.0
334.3
333.7
341.9
339.9
343.8
344.2
343.2
346.1
346.1
345.1
354.0
283.7
276.5
274.6
282.0
276.4
278.9
279.5
279.4
282.5
283.3
282.5
289.5
155.3
146.0
146.2
146.5
142.3
147.2
148.7
146.9
148.9
151.1
149.7
150.6
113.0
110.3
110.8
112.6
112.0
112.2
112.8
113.4
113.8
115.8
115.3
116.5
73.7
74.7
74.0
78.5
76.5
73.5
73.3
75.0
76.8
76.4
77.2
82.5
54.7
55.7
54.4
56.9
57.7
58.3
57.5
57.5
56.8
55.8
55.7
56.4
57.4
57.8
59.1
59.9
63.5
64.9
64.7
63.9
63.6
62.8
62.5
64.5
Jan".
Feb".
357.3
290.6
152.8
119.3
81.5
56.3
66.7
163
161
154
164
164
167
168
162
162
974
990
,049
,104
,008
836
,103
,097
,118
,104
1,111
951
!46
162
848
941
153
152
167
r
NEW PRIVATE HOUSING AND VACANCY RATES
[Thousands of units or homes, except as noted]
New pri\ ate homes
New private housing units
Units started, In tvpe of structure
Period
Total
2,020.3
1,745.1
1,292.2
1,084.2
1,062.2
1,703.0
1,749.5
1,741.8
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985r
1 unit
1,433.3
1,194.1
852.2
705.4
662.6
1,067.6
1,084.2
1,072.4
2-4 units
5 or more units
125.0
122.0
109.5
462.0
429.0
330.5
91.1
80.0
113.5
121.4
93.4
287.7
319.6
522.0
544.0
576.1
Units
authorized
1,800.5
1,551.8
1,190.6
985.5
1,000.5
1,605.2
1,681.8
1,740.8
Units
completed
Homes sold
1,867.5
1,870.8
1,501.6
1,265.7
1,005.5
1 ,390.3
1,652.2
1,702.6
817
709
545
436
412
623
639
687
Vacancv rate
Homes for
sale at end of
period l
3
414
398
336
272
251
300
356
354
housing units
(percent) 2
5.0
5.4
5.4
5.0
5.3
5.7
5.9
Seasonal y adjusted annu al rates
1985:
1986:
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
Mar
June
Julv
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec r.
1,804
1,632
1,849
1,851
1,684
1,693
1,673
1,737
1 ,653
1,784
1,654
1,882
1,039
1,111
1,147
1,129
1,041
1,036
1,068
1,071
1,006
1,118
1,006
1,098
105
96
103
106
105
95
86
97
85
80
76
83
660
425
599
616
538
562
519
569
562
586
572
701
1,635
1,624
1,741..
1,704
1,778
1,712
1,694
1,784
1,808
1,688
1,661
1,873
Jan T
Feb p.
2,056
1,985
1,357
1,208
110
113
589
664
1,907
1,803
' 1,702
l,771
r
l,691
r
1,659
T
1,635
r
1,758
r
1,722
r
1,720
r
l,778
r
l,541
r
l,721
1,757
629
676
r
698
648
684
710
r
745
708
681
r
637
r
719
721
r
r
r
1,782
r
r
r
753
355
359
356
r
355
r
355
354
351
348
350
r
353
r
354
354
r
358
6.3
6.2
6.8
6.7
BUSINESS SALES AND INVENTORIES—Manufacturing and Trade
Manufacturing and trade sales fell 0.4 percent in January and inventories rose $2.8 billion. According to revised
data, retail sales fell 0.1 percent in February following a rise of 0.1 percent in January.
BILLIC)NS OF DDL ARS* (RATIC) SCALE)
BILLIC )NS OF DOL1
650
200
1
190 —
180
170 —
600
""
^*~1
550
—
—
"
500
^^.
"1t=
400
0f
-=T-
—
130
^_^
^1
^_/^ 1 {ETAIL INVEh4TORIES
^-^x-
—
120
S* M ^NUFACTUR NG
350 5" •"•••«*... „-'
—
x\
{—\-
140
-'-*'—*
SCALE)
/~\ *
160
150 ™~
e=] -\
MANUFA CTURING AhID
TRADE NVENTORIEJ
450 —
ARS* (RATIC)
^*"**
110
—
M *ID TRADE SA LES
^*
100
300
"^
_,-**^~~
RETAIL SA Lfcb
=f
90 —-s^''"~ 80
—
250 ^—
—
ll|||llllll lllllllllll
70
llll||lllll
iiiiiluiii
lllllllllll
RATIC 3*
200
1.80
_ INVENT DRY-SALES> RATIO
1.60
R ETAIL
^^~~
—
-
150
1.40
^
1983 1
1982
!
1984
1985
-V-3S£
V*
AND TRADE
lllllllllll
1.00
1982
1986"
lllllllllll llll||||lll lllllllllll lllllllllll
1983
Sales
Inventories 3
1986
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS
Sales
2
Inventory-s ales ratio 4
He tail
Whol esale
Sales
2
11985 '
1984
•SEASONALLY ADJUSTED
SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE
Manufact iring and
trac e '
r
^7^
^—
^Sr
\
M/ NUFACTURI •4G
1.20
||||llll||| lllllllllll ||l|lllllll lllllllllll ||llllllll|
—
Invento-
Total
2
Durable
goods
stores
inventories 3
Nondurable goods
stores
Total
Durable
goods
stores
Nondurable goods
stores
Manufacturing
Retail
Millions of dollars, seasonally iidjusted
r
r
1978
1979
1980 r
1981 r
1982 r
1983 r
1984 r
1985 r
1985:
Jan T
Feb r
Mar r.
Apr r
May r
June r
July r
Aug '
Sept '
Ocf
Nov r
Dec r
1986:
Jan"
Feb"
1
260,810
298,344
328,074
356,927
344,656
368,747
411,404
424,993
399,645
451,546
494,250
528,284
509,696
520,539
575,762
583,615
66,674
79,481
93,721
102,021
96,290
100,448
114,071
115,396
86,442
99,348
113,623
118,438
118,290
120,476
132,208
136,407
67,231
74,926
79,963
86,777
89,339
97,858
107,755
114,495
23,368
25,529
24,914
27,089
28,059
33,041
38,817
42,851
43,863
49,397
55,049
59,688
61,279
64,817
68,939
71,645
102,694
111,098
116,346
127,201
126,497
139,381
157,845
165,324
50,136
54,108
55,117
60,327
58,952
66,928
77,142
82,875
52,558
56,990
61,229
66,874
67,545
72,453
80,703
82,449
1.44
1.43
1.45
1.44
1.51
1.38
1.34
1.36
1.43
1.44
1.42
1.41
1.41
1.34
1.39
1.40
416,889
418,531
420,779
425,640
427,623
418,247
422,496
429,716
428,578
425,958
431,989
434,246
576,985
579,993
579,721
580,021
578,384
580,685
581,210
579,266
579,299
582,237
582,665
583,615
114,654
114,310
114,619
117,612
118,753
110,777
114,273
116,847
115,231
113,944
116,425
118,301
132,247
133,631
133,865
133,968
134,014
135,479
135,841
135,500
134,967
135,531
135,115
136,407
110,511
111,960
111,857
114,519
114,232
113,599
114,430
116,276
119,118
114,785
115,433
116,861
40,644
41,310
41,283
42,980
42,787
42,444
42,768
44,209
46,748
42,355
42,631
43,882
69,867
70,650
70,574
71,539
71,445
71,155
71,662
72,067
72,370
72,430
72,802
72,979
158,953
160,216
159,685
160,004
159,470
159,528
160,333
159,078
160,302
164,262
165,557
165,324
78,149
78,642
79,033
79,071
78,679
79,143
79,205
78,042
78,425
81,668
83,056
82,875
80,804
81,574
80,652
80,933
80,791
80,385
81,128
81,036
81,877
82,594
82,501
82,449
1.38
1.39
1.38
1.36
1.35
1.39
1.38
1.35
1.35
1.37
1.35
1.34
1.44
1.43
1.43
1.40
1.40
1.40
1.40
1.37
1.35
1.43
1.43
1.41
432,681
586,426
116,739
138,250
72,704
72,554
167,819
84,720
83,099
1.36
1.43
r
116,982
116,812
See page 21 for manufacturing.
Monthly average for year and total for month.
Book value, end of period, seasonally adjusted.
For annua! periods, ratio of weighted average inventories to average monthly sales; for monthly
data, ratio of inventories at end of month to sales for month.
2
3
4
20
r
44,278
44,258
T
Note.—Retail trade data revised beginning 1978; therefore, total manufacturing and trade data
revised beginning 1978,
Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census.
MANUFACTURERS' SHIPMENTS, INVENTORIES, AND ORDERS
In January, manufacturers' shipments and inventories fell, and new and unfilled orders rose. In February, according
to advance data, durable goods shipments and new orders fell.
BILLKDNS OF DOL LARS* (RATIC3 SCALE)
BULK )NS OF DOL ARS* (RATIC) SCALE)
240
360
320
SHIPME NTS
200
^x"1
?
'—
^-"^
- TOTAL —
160
—
280
240 —
nil RABLE GOOC•>s
120
— INVENT ORIES —
as^ »
p-T^
TOTAL
—-—
—
200
••
5X1
80
160
•*£
=^
NONDL RABLE GOO DS
D URABLE GO<DOS
120
60
Illllllllll
40
"7
80
Illllllllll
NON DURABLE GC)ODS
Illllllllll Illllllllll Illllllllll
60
BILLIC3NS OF DOL .ARS* (RATIC) SCALE)
240
40
NEWC)RDERS
200
I—V
^—*"1
160
Illllllllll Illllllllll Illllllllll Illllllllll Illllllllll
RATI O*
2.2
TOTAL
DU RABLE GOOI)S
120
s~
80 ~~^
-^
*"'
.-A—
V/"C"—
INVENT ORY-SHIPW\ENTS RAT 0
2.0
V.x-«^'
1.8
1
h— \
NC NDURABLE (300DS
^"^-^^
1.6
'•v
60
^^
1.4 —
llllll|||ll Illllllllll Illllllllll Illllllllll Illllllllll
40
1982
s
1983
1984
1985
r^.-i_ _^
ls
1986
1982
ir
r'—-^—^
>
1.2 Illllllllll Illllllllll
1985
1984
1983
SEASONALLY ADJ STED
OURCE: DEPARTM NT OF COMMERC
U anufac turers new orders i
Manufa turers' inven tones 2
Durabl goods
Total
Durable
goods
1986
COUNCIL OF ECC3NOMIC ADVISERS
Manufa cturers' shiprnents *
Period
—
Illllllllll Illllllllll
Nondurable goods
Durable
goods
Total
Nondurable goods
Total
Total
Capital
goods
industries,
nondefense
Nondurable goods
Manufacturers'
unfilled
orders 3
Manufacturers'
inventory —
shipments
ratio 4
M llions of do lars, seasoilally adjust)?d
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985r
126,905
143,936
154,391
168,129
159,027
170,441
189,578
195,102
67,848
76,060
77,550
83,872
76,693
84,951
98,502
103,649
59,057
67,876
76,841
84,257
82,334
85,491
91,076
91,452
210,509
241,100
264,281
282,645
264,909
260,682
285,709
281,884
137,891
160,533
174,620
186,347
175,103
171,629
191,109
189,164
72,618
80,567
89,661
96,298
89,806
89,053
94,600
92,720
131,546
147,403
156,161
167,752
157,255
173,259
191,634
195,803
72,339
79,451
79,360
83,553
74,996
87,631
100,611
104,305
19,458
23,231
23,259
24,050
20,681
22,764
27,017
27,215
59,207
67,953
76,801
84,199
82,260
85,627
91,024
91,499
259,770
302,145
323,393
319,094
296,918
330,924
355,640
363,809
1.57
1.57
1985: Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Get
Nov
Dec r
191,724
192,261
194,303
193,509
194,638
193,871
193,793
196,593
194,229
197,229
200,131
199,084
101,966
101,724
102,116
102,068
102,718
102,657
102,478
105,311
103,656
106,479
107,007
105,777
89,758
90,537
92,187
91,441
91,920
91,214
91,315
91,282
90,573
90,750
93,124
93,307
285,785
286,146
286,171
286,049
284,900
285,678
285,036
284,688
284,030
282,444
281,993
281,884
192,153
192,030
192,355
192,475
191,546
192,239
192,163
192,037
191,930
190,508
190,284
189,164
93,632
94,116
93,816
93,574
93,354
93,439
92,873
92,651
92,100
91,936
91,709
92,720
195,210
193,057
191,532
191,081
195,019
198,261
195,793
198,782
197,332
195,381
196,865
201,213
105,447
102,467
99,544
99,839
102,971
106,780
104,370
107,661
106,641
104,495
103,796
107,531
23,633
29,493
27,206
25,461
25,594
27,984
26,685
27,554
29,240
27,092
25,788
30,566
89,763
90,590
91,988
91,242
92,048
91,481
91,423
91,121
90,691
90,886
93,069
93,682
359,125
359,926
357,151
354,731
355,112
359,502
361,502
363,691
366,794
364,946
361,680
363,809
1.49
1.49
1.47
1.48
1.46
1.47
1.47
1.45
1.46
1.43
1.41
1.42
1986: Jan p
Feb"
198,960 ' 105,874
105,307
93,086
280,357
188,518
91,839
201,399
24,553
28,856
92,940
366,248
1.41
1
2
3
Monthly average for year and total for month. Shipments are the same as sales.
Book value, end of period,
End of period.
r
108,459
107,864
r
1.66
1.64
1.73
1.52
1.45
1.46
4
For annual periods, ratio of weighted average inventories to average monthly shipments; for
monthly data, ratio of inventories at end of month to shipments for month.
Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census.
21
PRICES
PRODUCER PRICES
In February, the producer price index for all finished goods fell 1.6 percent, seasonally adjusted. Prices of finished
consumer foods fell 1.6 percent, while prices of other finished consumer goods fell 2.3 percent. Prices of capital
equipment rose 0.1 percent.
INDEX, 1967= lOOj
340
INDEX, 1967=1
320
300
280
260
260
240
240
220
200
1978
1985
1979
SOURCE, DEPARTMENT OF LABOR
1986
COUNCIl OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS
[1967 = 100; monthly data seasonally adjusted]
Fin shed goods
Intern ediate ma terials
F nished go<)ds excluding consumer foo Is
Period
Total
finished
goods
Consumer
foods
Cnide maten als
Other
Total
Foodstuffs
and
feedstuffs
203.1
226.1
252.6
250.3
239.4
247.9
253.1
232.7
216.5
244.4
282.3
310.1
315.7
317.1
325.0
325.0
234.4
274.3
304.6
329.0
319.5
323.6
330.8
306.2
216.2
247.9
259.2
257.4
247.8
252.2
259.5
235.0
272.3
330.0
401.0
482.3
473.9
477.4
484.5
459.7
Foods
Total
Durable
Nondurable
Capital
equipment
166.9
200.0
231.3
283.9
319.6
333.6
335.3
337.3
339.4
199.2
216.5
239.8
264.3
279.4
287.2
294.0
300.5
194.9
217.9
248.9
271.3
281.0
284.6
290.3
2&1.9
215.6
242.2
280.3
306.0
310.4
312.3
320.0
318.7
Consumer gc>ods
Total
Total
Total
finished
consumer
goods
and
feeds *
Other
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985"
195.9
217.7
247.0
269.8
280.7
285.2
291.1
293.8
207.2
226.2
239.5
253.6
259.3
261.8
273.3
271.2
190.7
213.3
247.8
273.3
285.8
290.8
294.8
299.1
186.7
211.5
250.8
276.5
287.8
291.4
294.1
297.4
183.2
206.2
218.6
226.7
233.1
236.8
241.5
1985: Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept c
Ocf.
Nov
Dec
291.9
292.0
293.5
294.2
293.6
294.3
293.4
291.8
294.4
296.7
298.3
273.6
272.4
270.8
268.6
268.4
270.9
269.0
266.4
270.8
273.9
275.9
295.6
296.3
298.9
300.6
299.7
299.8
299.3
298.0
300.1
302.0
303.4
293.4
294.0
297.5
299.7
298.4
298.4
297.5
296.3
298.0
300.4
302.3
239.9
240.4
240.9
241.4
242.1
242.1
242.3
239.8
243.0
243.8
243.7
333.4
334.1
340.1
343.8
340.7
340.7
339.0
338.9
339.3
343.0
346.5
298.6
299.3
299.6
300.0
300.4
300.7
301.3
299.7
302.7
303.4
303.6
290.0
289.9
291.9
292.6
291.6
292.5
291.2
289.6
292.1
294.8
296.7
319.0
318.6
319.3
320.0
318.5
317.8
317.4
317.2
317.5
318.6
319.7
240.5
238.4
235.4
231.5
230.7
229.7
226.5
224.9
229.4
231.8
232.9
324.8
324.5
325.4
326.5
325.0
324.3
324.1
323.9
324.0
325.0
326.1
315.2
311.0
307.3
305.6
303.8
303.0
296.1
293.1
302.2
308.9
307.4
248.0
241.4
235.1
231.6
230.6
229.5
221.6
217.7
231.0
240.9
239.7
460.3
461.0
462.9
464.9
461.2
461.1
456.1
454.9
455.4
455.7
453.7
1986:
296.3
291.7
274.8
270.5
301.2
296.5
299.2
292.4
242.4
242.6
342.0
330.0
303.3
303.5
294.3 . 318.3
288.3 313.8
232.6
229.2
324.6
320.0
303.2
288.1
233.5
225.1
453.4
424.1
1978
1979
1980
1
Jan
Feb
Intermediate materials for food manufacturing and feeds.
22
Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.
CONSUMER PRICES—ALL URBAN CONSUMERS
In February, the consumer price index for all urban consumers fell 0.4 percent, seasonally adjusted (it fell 0.3
percent not seasonally adjusted). The index was 3.2 percent above its year-earlier level.
INDEX, 1967= 100 (RATIO SCALE)
INDEX, 1967= 100 (RATIO SCALE)
240
220
220
200
200
180
180
1986
1978
SEE NOTE ON TABLE BELOW
SOURCE: DEPARTMENT Of LABOR
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS
[1967 — 100, except as noted; monthly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted by NSA]
Tr ansportati on
Hou sing
She Her
Period
All
items *
Food
Total '
To till
Renters'
costs (Dec.
1982=100)
Homeowners'
costs (Dec.
1982=100)
NSA
Rel. imp.3
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1985: Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
1986: Jan
Feb
1
100.0
195.4
217.4
246.8
272.4
289.1
298.4
311.1
322.2
317.4
318.8
320.1
321.3
322.3
322.8
323.5
324.5
325.5
326.6
327.4
328.4
327.5
Fuel
and
other
utilities
Apparel and
upkeep
Total J
New
cars
Motor
fuel
Medical
care
Ener-
gy 2
All items
less
food,
energy,
and
shelter
NSA
18.5
211.4
234.5
254.6
274.6
285.7
291.7
302.9
309.8
308.2
308.6
308.7
308.4
309.1
309.2
309.6
310.7
311.1
313.2
315.2
315.9
313.8
37.9
202.8
227.6
263.3
293.5
314.7
323.1
336.5
349.9
344.0
345.3
346.5
348.4
349.4
350.3
351.7
352.2
353.3
355.2
356.2
357.1
356.8
22.3
210.4
239.7
281.7
314.7
337.0
344.8
361.7
382.0
373.3
374.7
376.4
379.7
381.1
383.1
385.3
386.1
387.9
390.5
391.9
393.3
394.8
7.3
103.0
108.6
115.4
112.6
113.2
113.7
114.7
115.3
115.8
116.3
116.7
117.5
118.2
118.5
118.8
119.2
14.4
0.5
8.1
5.0
102.5
107.3
113.1
110.7
111.0
111.5
112.6
112.9
113.6
114.3
114.5
114.9
115.7
116.2
116.6
117.0
233.0
256.4
285.7
314.4
334.1
346.3
359.2
368.9
366.8
370.0
368.0
366.2
367.6
367.8
370.6
368.7
368.5
372.7
373.7
379.1
379.6
216.0
239.3
278.6
319.2
350.8
370.3
387.3
393.6
388.8
391.2
392.8
392.8
394.7
394.2
393.6
394.4
393.7
395.4
396.5
397.2
392.4
159.6
166.6
178.4
186.9
191.8
196.5
200.2
206.0
204.2
205.1
205.4
205.3
205.9
205.6
205.9
206.8
207.7
208.4
208.3
207.7
206.6
Includes items not shown separately.
Fuel oil, coal, and bottled gas; gas (piped) and electricity; and motor fuel. Motor oil, coolant,
etc. also included through 1982.
3
Relative importance, December 1985.
2
Maintenance
and
repairs
21.4
185.5
212.0
249.7
280.0
291.5
298.4
311.7
319.9
316.0
319.0
320.9
320.2
320.2
320.3
319.8
319.3
320.5
322.6
323.9
325.5
320.9
3.4
5.5
6.5
11.3
153.8
166.0
179.3
190.2
197.6
202.6
208.5
215.2
213.0
213.7
214.1
214.5
215.0
215.2
215.7
216.2
217.0
217.7
218.4
218.6
219.5
196.3
265.6
369.1
410.9
389.4
376.4
370.7
373.8
358.2
367.9
374.3
377.7
378.8
379.1
377.4
375.2
374.3
377.4
379.4
380.1
357.2
219.4
239.7
265.9
294.5
328.7
357.3
379.5
403.1
392.3
395.4
397.5
399.8
402.6
404.3
406.6
409.0
410.9
413.0
415.7
417.5
420.4
220.4
275.9
361.1
410.0
416.1
419.3
423.6
426.5
416.8
423.2
428.0
429.7
430.3
429.4
427.6
426.8
425.8
428.4
430.3
430.8
414.3
48.0
179.1
191.5
208.3
228.1
245.6
258.4
271.2
281.6
278.5
279.6
280.3
280.2
280.9
281.4
282.1
282.6
284.1
285.4
286.2
287.5
288.0
NOTE.—Data beginning 1983 incorporate a rental equivalence measure for homeownership costs
and therefore are not strictly comparable with figures for earlier periods.
Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.
23
CHANGES IN PRODUCER PRICES FOR FINISHED GOODS
[Percent change1 from preceding period; monthly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted by iYSA]
Oh nge from pr ec-fding peri d
Change from :} mont s earlier, ami lal rate
Change from 6 monti s earlier, ann ial rate
Consum er goods
Consum -'t goods
Consum ?r goods
Period
Total
finished
goods
Capital
equipment
Excluding foods
Foods
Total
finished
goods
Excluding
foods
Foods
equipment
Total
finished
goods
Exeluding
foods
Foods
equipment
Change
from
year
earlier,
total
finished
goods
NSA
Cha tge, Dec. o Dec., N SA
9.2
1978
8.5
11.7
7.4
7.5
1.4
2.1
2.3
3.5
.3
12.8
11.8
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985'
7.1
3.7
.6
1.7
1.8
7.9
8.8
17.5
7.8
11.1
13.5
11.4
14.2
8.5
4.2
9.2
4.0
1.6
2.1
.9
92
3.9
1.9
-.8
.8
2.1
1.8
2.7
Cl ange, mon th to mont h
0
1985: Fob
Mar
Apr
May
June
Julv
Aug
Sept c
Octr
Nov '
Deo r
9
9
-.3
-.5
.9
.8
.5
— ./
-1.0
1.7
1.1
.7
.6
.8
.6
— .0
1.0
.2
.1
4
-1.0
— 2.3
-.1
.1
-1.6
0
-0.3
-3.3
2.2
3.2
-4.2
-7.1
— 5.7
-.1
.2
.1
.1
.1
.1
.2
1.2
.7
-.4
0
-.3
-.4
— .7
— 1.6
0.6
-0.2
-.4
-.6
-.8
-.1
.9
.2
,Ian '
Feb
1986
-0.0
.0
.0
99
— 1.1
-2.4
8.9
6.1
1.2
-2.9
-2.8
9.2
-.5
7.5
4.0
2.7
2.8
15.0
8.3
5.3
1.6
.8
.1
2.6
6.0
-6.6
-4.9
-10.2
-0.1
-0.5
-1.2
-2.1
-3.8
-4.5
0.4
5.1
3.8
1.9
1.5
1.5
1.7
-.9
4.7
-2.9
— .1
.1
4.6
3.7
-.8
.1
.6
1.1
2
-1.4
.5
1.7
1.6
1.0
1.7
1.0
-.1
.6
-2.0
-3.3
-4.4
1.7
0
4.0
3.2
5.7
1.4
2.9
1.1
-1.2
2.5
2.4
3.1
2.8
3.3
2.6
.5
2.8
3.6
2.6
2.9
2.8
1.6
.3
.5
2.6
1.8
.3
2.1
2.3
.5
-3.4
.7
.2
.7
1.0
1.1
.9
.8
2
1.1
2.1
1.5
1.8
1.7
1.5
1.4
-.1
Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.
CHANGES IN CONSUMER PRICES—ALL URBAN CONSUMERS
[Percent change from preceding period; monthly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted bv NSA]
Tr nsportat on
Housing
Shelter
Period
All
items ]
Food
Total '
Homeowners'
eosts
Renters'
eosts
Total '
pare]
and
upkeep
Fuel
and
other
utihties
Total '
9.0
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
13.3
12.4
11.8
10.2
10.2
8.9
3.9
3.8
4.0
3.8
4.3
3.1
2.6
3.8
2.7
Motor
Medical
car_
Energy2
and
9.9
11.5
5.9
3.2
7.7
6.2
8.5
8.8
8.0
17.4
15.1
16.0
13.6
14.5
5.5
6.8
3.6
1.6
2.9
2.0
2.9
18.2
14.7
11.0
7.4
52.2
18.9
10.1
10.0
12.5
11.0
37.4
18.1
11.9
— .5
3.0
6.4
6.1
6.7
— 1.6
0.4
2.7
1.7
.9
.3
.1
-.4
-.6
-.2
.8
.5
.8
.5
.6
.7
.4
.6
.6
.0
.0
.7
.2
.4
9.9
2.4
4.7
5.2
6.0
5.1
5.9
-
6.3
4.5
5.1
5.9
9.7
1.8
4.2
1.9
1.7
3.9
3.1
2.6
From
previous
(juar
er
From
3
months
earlier
From
6
months
earlier
From
earlier
NSA
SA
15.2
13.7
10.2
3.6
3.5
4.2
4.3
items
less
food,
energy,
shelter
C lange, D ecember to Dec( mber, P*
1978
New
Adden dum: A!j ite ns, percent hange
(annua rate)
All
Ap-
7.5
6.8
1.6
3.4
2.4
3.5
9.4
-6.5
— 1.7
-2.4
1.3
2
1.8
6.5
7.7
7.2
11.3
13.5
10.4
9.9
9.4
6.1
5.0
4.4
3.7
6.1
3.2
4.3
3.6
Chs nge, mo nth to ir onth
1985: Feb
Mar
Apr
Mav
June
Julv
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
1986:
Jan
Feb
0.3
.5
.3
->
9
9
2
9
0.2
.1
.0
-.1
_2
.0
.1
.4
.1
0.5
.4
.3
.0
.3
.3
.4
.1
.4
.7
.6
.3
.5
.3
.3
-.4
9
— .7
.3
-.1
.4
.6
0.7
.4
.5
.9
.4
.5
.6
2
.5
0.7
.5
.4
.9
.5
.4
.4
.7
.4
.3
.7
.6
.3
.4
.4
.3
.3
l, and bottled gas; gas (piped) and electricity; and mot
0.7
.3
.5
1.0
.3
.6
.6
.2
.3
.7
0.9
-0.3
.6
.4
0
.0
-.1
2
.4
.1
-.0
.3
-.1
.1
.4
.4
-0.1
.9
.6
9
0.5
.3
2
.2
9
0
.0
_ 2
2
.1
9
.4
.3
.4
.7
.3
— .0
A
2
.4
.3
.3
2
.3
.3. — 1.2
-.3
— .5
.5
.1
.4
.2
_ 9
fuel. Motor oil, coolant,
-1.4
'4
-6.0
.7
-0.9
0.5
.4
.3
— .0
9
4
2
.2
2
4.0
-.2
.2
2.6
2.4
— .2
.5
.5
.3
4.3
3.1
4.5
5.3
3.3
3.5
3.6
3.6
3.6
3.6
3.4
2.8
2.9
3.6
3.8
5.1
1.2
4.1
2.9
1.5
1.1
.4
.1
.6
.4
.1
-3.8
.5
2
3.1
4.0
4.6
4.2
3.3
2.6
2.6
3.5
3.7
3.7
3.7
3.7
3.6
3.4
3.2
3.2
3.6
3.8
3.9
3.2
NOTE.—Data beginning January 1983 incorporate a rental equivalence measuri for homeownership costs and therefore arc not strictly comparable with data for earlier periods.
Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics
24
3.2
PRICES RECEIVED AND PAID BY FARMERS
Prices received by farmers fell 2.4 percent in February, while prices paid by farmers were unchanged.
INDEX, 1977= 100 (RATIO SCALE)
INDEX, 1977 = 100 (RATIO SCALE)
180
180
PRICES PAID
160
160
140
140
120
120
PRICES RECEIVED -
100
100
80
80
I l l l l l l l l l l l i m i l l l l l l l 6o
60
RATK
yj
120
RA noi'
140
—
—• —
100
r—^
p^7—-i^—-i_
80
60
—
—M i n i u m M i n i u m tiin|i|||i
1978
1979 ,
1980
RATIO
\
^-»
— 100
1
80
~— — «i -^~^~ V
^
llllllll||I 1 111 1111111 I l l l l l l l l l l I l l l l l l f III IIIIMMIII I l l t l l l l l l l
1985
, 1981
1982
1986
1983 ,
1984
I/RATIO OF INDEX OF PRICES RECEIVED TO INDEX OF PRICES PAID.
SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS
[1977 = 100]
Prices paid by farmer s
Pri ,es received by farmers
Period
Livestock and
products
All farm
products
146
136
157
160
164
163
124
128
126
126
123
123
115
112
111
116
118
145
141
136
134
134
130
128
128
134
138
137
164
164
164
164
164
163
162
162
162
162
162
159
159
159
159
158
156
156
155
154
155
155
154
153
153
152
151
150
149
148
148
149
149
82
82
80
79
78
78
75
75
76
78
79
113
109
135
132
163
163
156
155
150
149
76
74
124
147
144
143
145
141
1985: Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
135
134
132
130
128
127
122
121
123
127
128
1986: Jan
Feb
124
121
Includes items not shown separately.
Percentage ratio of index of prices received by farmers to index of prices paid, interest, taxes
and wage rates.
109
106
107
97
93
85
84
86
79
105
116
125
134
121
128
139
121
1
108
123
138
150
Ratio 2
Production
items
108
125
138
148
150
153
155
151
115
132
134
139
133
135
142
129
2
Production
items, interest,
taxes, and wage
rates
125
139
151
155
159
161
157
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1978
All commodities,
services,
interest, taxes,
and wage rates *
NOTE.—The official indexes are published on a 1910-14 base as required by law. The indexes
have been converted to a 1977= 100 base to facilitate comparison with other indexes.
Source: Department of Agriculture.
MONEY, CREDIT, AND SECURITY MARKETS
MONEY STOCK, LIQUID ASSETS, AND DEBT MEASURES
Growth in Ml and M2 accelerated in February while growth in M3 slowed.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS*(RATIO SCALE)
3,400
3,200
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS*(RATIO SCALE)
3,400
3,200
2,800
2,400
2,000
1,600
1,200
400
400
300
300
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS
- AVERAGES OF DAILY FIGURES; SEASONALLY ADJUSTED
SOURCE: BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM
[Averages of daily figures, except as noted; billions of dollars, seasonally adjusted]
Period
Dec '
Dec '
Dee r
Dec "
Dec '
Dec r
Dec '
Decr
Feb '
Mar r
Apr
May r .
June r
July1;
Aug
Sept r
Gel'
Nov r
Dec r
1986: Jan '
Feb"
1978:
1979:
1980:
1981:
1982:
1983:
1984:
1985:
1985:
Ml
M2
M3
L
Sum of currency,
demand deposits,
travelers' cbecks,
and other
checkable
deposits (OCDs)
Ml plus overnight
KPs and
Eurodollars,
MMMF balances
(general purpose
and broker/dealer),
MMDAs, and
savings and small
time deposits
M2 plus large
time deposits,
term RPs, term
Eurodollars, and
institution-only
MMMF balances
M3 plus
other liquid
assets
363.0
388.7
414.2
441.1
479.9
527.1
558.5
626.5
569.3
572.2
575.7
582.5
590.9
596.2
604.8
611.5
614.1
620.0
626.5
627.1
630.9
1,388.9
1,497.5
1,630.3
1,792.8
1,952.6
2,186.0
2,373.8
2,565.5
2,421.8
2,429.4
2,434.4
2,451.9
2,479.0
2,496.1
2,515.4
2,529.5
2,538.3
2,550.7
2,565.5
2,568.4
2,576.1
1
Consists of outstanding credit market debt of the U.S. Government, State and local governments, and private nonfinancial sectors; data from flow of funds accounts.
2
Annual changes are from December to December and monthly changes are from 6 months earlier at a seasonally adjusted annual rate.
26
1,646.4
1,803.2
1,987.4
2,233.6
2,443.5
2,697.3
2,986.6
3,200.2
3,033.8
3,046.6
3,052.0
3,069.9
3,098.0
3,113.3
3,131.4
3,151.5
3,166.1
3,181.6
3,200.2
3,222.1
3,238.6
1,909.0
2,114.8
2,323.3
2,593.7
2,850.1
3,163.5
3,532.3
3,835.3
3,588.8
3,612.7
3,618.5
3,636.5
3,664.7
3,683.3
3,710.8
3,739.8
3,761.6
3,800.0
3,835.3
Debt
Debt of
domestic
nonfinancial
sectors
(monthly
average) '
3,169.5
3,554.5
3,894.6
4,269.6
4,661.1
5,191.9
5,951.9
6,802.7
6,075.1
6,131.7
6,194.5
6,259.0
6,323.5
6,392.5
6,461.8
6,526.7
6,594.2
6,681.5
6,802.7
6,905.7
Perce nt change from year or 6
months earlier 2
Ml
8.3
7.1
6.6
6.5
8.8
9.8
6.0
12.2
8.2
8.0
9.7
10.5
11.9
12.2
12.9
14.2
13.8
13.3
12.4
10.6
8.8
NOTE.—See p. 27 for components.
Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.
M2
8.0
7.8
8.9
10.0
8.9
12.0
8.6
8.1
11.7
10.6
9.8
9.0
9.1
8.2
7.9
8.4
8.7
8.2
7.1
5.9
4.9
M3
11.8
9.5
10.2
12.4
9.4
10.4
10.7
7.2
11.1
10.2
8.8
7.9
7.6
6.7
6.5
7.0
7.6
7.4
6.7
7.1
7.0
Debt
13.3
12.1
9.6
9.6
9.2
11.4
14.6
14.3
14.5
14.4
14.2
13,5
12.9
12.8
13.1
13.3
13.3
14.0
15.7
16.7
COMPONENTS OF MONEY STOCK AND LIQUID ASSETS
[Averages of daily figures; billions of dollars, seasonally adjusted, except as noted by NSA]
Other
•
Period
Demand
deposits
Currency
checkable
deposits
(OCDs)
Overnight
repurchase
agreements
(RPs),
net, plus
overnight
Eurodollars
NSA
1978: Dec
97.6
1979: Dee r .. 106.4
r
1980: Dec .. 116.7
1981: Dec r .. 124.1
1982: Dec r .. 134.3
1983: Dec ''.. 148.3
1984: Dec T .. 158.5
1985: Dec
170.6
1985:
Feb
160.7
Mar
161.3
Apr
161.9
163.2
May
June
164.4
July
165.3
Aug
166.9
Sept
167.7
Oct
168.7
Nov
169.8
Dec
170.6
1986:
Jan r.
171.9
Feb"
172.9
Money market
mutua 1 fund
hala nces
General
purpose
and
broker/
dealer
NSA
Institution
only
Monev
market
deposit
accounts
(MMDAs)
Savings
deposits
NSA
NSA
150.6
185.2
138.2
167.5
T
176.5
3.1
9.5
15.2
38.0
51.1
43.2
62.7
r
64.6
0.0
.0
.0
.0
43.2
379.2
417.0
512.1
482.0
423.9
401.4
344.8
253.5
261.1
265.3
234.6
237.9
242.7
248.4
271.5
8.5
17.4
28.0
78.0
103.4
131.3
146.3
178.5
20.3
21.2
28.3
35.9
38.8
53.8
56.3
r
69.2
251.2
251.4
251.8
255.4
r
259.0
260.4
263.1
266.4
266.0
267.8
271.5
152.2
154.1
156.5
158.4
161.8
164.8
169.0
171.5
173.6
176.6
178.5
64.6
63.3
57.8
61.3
60.8
60.7
r
63.6
r
64.1
r
64.6
r
65.7
r
69.2
175.1
177.6
176.2
172.2
175.4
175.8
176.8
176.7
177.0
r
!76.8
r
176.5
62.2
59.5
59.6
63.5
67.1
65.0
63.6
62.3
63.3
64.5
r
64.6
268.9
269.1
180.4
183.0
67.2
67.0
177.7
180.9
66.8
67.2
6.4
33.4
61.6
Small
denomination
time
deposits >
Large
denomination
time
deposits '
357.9
306.6
289.7
303.6
635.3
730.2
825.1
852.8
785.2
887.5
880.3
195.1
222.1
259.0
301.8
327.8
329.9
413.9
436.4
450.5
460.2
462.5
466.4
478.1
487.2
495.2
499.8
504.2
509.6
512.1
289.9
289.7
289.0
290.8
293.6
296.7
299.7
300.3
302.3
303.7
303.6
885.2
885.0
887.6
889.5
890.3
888.0
880.9
878.3
875.7
876.0
880.3
416.9
421.0
425.9
425.0
422.7
418.3
r
421.0
r
425.6
r
429.7
432.9
436.4
515.8
516.5
304.0
304.9
886.1
891.1
447.8
451.0
1
Small denomination and large denomination deposits are those issued in amounts of less than
$100,000 and more than $100,000, respectively.
521.5
Term
repurchase
agreements
(RPs)
Term
Eurodollars
(net)
NSA
NSA
26.6
29.5
34.0
36.0
34.5
51.8
62.2
r
65.7
31.8
44.7
50.3
67.5
81.7
91.5
83.1
r
77.2
81.3
84.7
80.9
r
81.4
r
79.2
r
58.4
58.7
59.8
r
57.7
r
57.1
r
55.7
r
57.1
r
58.5
r
59.5
r
63.0
r
65.7
r
r
68.5
70.4
Shortterm
Treasury
securities
Bankers'
acceptances
Commercial
paper
80.3
79.6
72.3
67.8
68.0
71.2
74.3
79.5
81.1
107.8
133.4
149.6
184.4
214.9
266.0
304.4
22.0
27.2
32.1
39.9
44.3
44.5
43.6
41.1
79.2
97.0
98.1
102.8
109.9
135.6
161.8
210.2
74.9
75.3
75.7
76.1
76.5
76.7
77.2
78.0
78.5
79.0
79.5
270.4
274.8
276.0
277.4
282.6
r
279.9
r
278.1
r
281.3
r
281.4
45.0
46.3
45.9
44.5
42.8
42.2
42.2
42.5
43.9
43.1
41.1
164.8
169.8
168.9
168.6
164.7
171.1
182.0
186.6
191.7
196.8
210.2
Savings
bonds
r
r
78.8
80.0
80.2
r
79.4
r
79.8
r
77.2
r
r
r
299.5
304.4
75.9
78.7
Travelers checks are a component of money stock but are not shown here.
Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.
NOTE.—See note p. 26.
CONSUMER INSTALLMENT CREDIT
[Millions of dollars; seasonally adjusted]
Net change in in stalhnent ere dit outstandiiig
Ins tallment credit outstanding (end of perio d)
Period
Total
Automobile
Revolving
Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec ''
296,290
312,907
328,275
376,006
452,372
541,848
112,134
119,796
124,938
142,497
172,461
54,900
60,309
65,019
76,453
94,940
209,883
1985: Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec '
459,595
468,636
476,978
485,248
494,290
499,517
505,764
511,490
523,021
531,438
536,230
541,848
1986: Jan
548,724
1980:
1981:
1982:
1983:
1984:
1985:
1
18,783
116,628
19,890
22,491
23,773
24,552
26,478
175,348
178,546
181,937
185,425
189,217
191,903
194,268
196,474
203,678
207,472
208,588
209,883
96,897
99,424
102,055
104,181
106,610
106,537
107,393
108,329
110,303
112,345
114,960
116,628
212,975
118,392
For year-end data, change from preceding year-end; for monthly data, change from preceding
Mobile
home
Other
110,473
112,912
115,827
Total
16,617
Automobile
7,662
5,142 '
17,559
Revolving
5,409
133,283
160,419
188,859
15,368
47,731
76,366
89,476
29,964
37,422
4,710
11,434
18,487
21,688
24,393
24,675
24,664
24,882
25,068
25,264
25,588
25,787
25,955
26,136
26,137
26,478
162,957
165,991
168,322
170,760
173,395
175,813
178,515
180,900
183,085
185,485
186,545
188,859
7,223
9,041
8,342
8,270
9,042
5,227
6,247
5,726
11,531
8,417
4,792
5,618
2,887
3,198
3,391
3,488
3,792
2,686
2,365
2,206
7,204
3,794
1,116
1,295
1,957
2,527
2,631
2,126
2,429
-73
856
936
1,974
2,042
2,615
1,668
26,443
190,914
6,876
3,092
1,764
Mobile
home
1,107
2,601
1,282
779
1,926
1
Other
2,439
2,915
17,456
27,136
28,440
218
186
196
324
199
168
181
1
341
2,538
3,034
2,331
2,438
2,635
2,418
2,702
2,385
2,185
2,400
1,060
2,314
-35
2,055
-159
282
— 11
Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve Svstern.
27
BANK LOANS AND SECURITIES, AND RESERVES
Commercial and industrial loans were unchanged in January.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS * (RATIO SCALE)
2,000
1,800
1,600
1,400
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS * (RATIO SCALE)
2,000
1,800
1,600
1,400
— ALL COMMERCIAL BANKS
1,200
1,200
1,000
1,000
-LOANS AND LEASES
800
800
600 —
600
400
400
U.S. GOVERNMENT SECURITIES
200
200
160
160
OTHER SECURITIES
120
120
80
80
60
I l l l l l l l l l l Illllllllll
1978
Illllllllll I l l l l l l l l l l
11111111111
1979
1982
1981
1980
1984
1983
1985
• SEASONALLY ADJUSTED.
SOURCE: BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM
60
1986
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS
[Billions of dollars, seasonally adjusted, except as noted]
Al commercial ban ts
1
Depo itory institutio ns 3
Period
1978:
1979:
1980:
1981:
1982:
1983:
1984:
1985:
1985:
Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
1986: Jan"
Feb"
Total loans
and
securities
1,013.8
1,135.4
1,239.7
1,307.4
1,400.5
1,553.0
1,716.8
1,895.5
1,726.3
1,744.8
1,761.6
1,768.8
1,788.5
1,802.7
1,819.0
1,828.8
1,841.3
1,844.4
1,869.6
1,895.5
1,919.6
Total 2
746.9
849.1
914.5
967.4
1,032.8
1,122.7
1,316.5
1,450.3
1,323.4
1,337.7
1,355.6
1,367.1
1,380.0
1,391.0
1,402.1
1,409.2
1,416.9
1,419.7
1,433.9
1,450.3
1,465.5
Commercial
and industrial
loans
246.1
291.1
326.9
355.1
391.5
412.8
469.0
493.9
469.2
474.2
481.2
481.9
484.3
484.3
484.1
485.7
487.2
487.0
490.6
493.9
494.1
U.S.
Government
securities
Total
137.6
144.4
170.9
179.6
202.7
260.8
260.3
270.7
260.3
266.0
267.1
261.4
266.3
267.1
271.6
271.4
273.1
270.0
275.0
270.7
264.6
1
Data are prorated averages of Wednesday figures for domestically chartered banks and averages
of month-end data for foreign-related institutions.
2
Excludes loans to commercial hanks in the United States.
3
Data are averages of daily figures.
28
Bom>wings
(millions of dollars,
unad usted)
B. 3Serves adjust sd
for changes iii
res erve reqmrem ants
Loans and leases
129.2
141.9
154.4
160.4
165.0
169.6
140.0
174.5
142.6
141.1
138.9
140.2
142.2
144.5
145.4
148.2
151.3
154.8
160.7
174.5
189.6
27.91
29.20
31.04
32.10
34.28
36.14
39.08
45.19
39.64
40.43
40.47
40.71
41.32
42.18
42.61
43.19
43.51
43.65
44.38
45.19
45.37
45.82
borrowed
27.04
27.73
29.3d
31.46
33.65
35.36
35.90
43.87
38.24
39.14
38.88
39.39
39.99
40.97
41.50
42.12
42.22
42.46
42.64
43.87
r
44.59
44.93
Required
27.67
28.76
30.52
31.78
33.78
35.58
38.23
44.13
38.89
39.53
39.71
39.97
40.52
41.27
41.75
42.37
42.84
42.90
43.45
44.13
44.25
44.72
Total
868
1,473
1,690
636
634
774
3,186
1,318
1,395
1,289
1,593
1,323
1,334
1,205
1,107
1,073
1,289
1,187
1,741
1,318
770
884
Seasonal
135
81
116
54
33
96
113
56
62
71
88
135
165
151
167
221
203
172
107
56
36
56
NOTE.—Data beginning January 1984 are not strictly comparable with data for earlier periods,
largely because beginning January 1984 certain obligations of States and political subdivisions are
included in loans rather than in other securities.
Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.
SOURCES AND USES OF FUNDS, NONFARM NONFINANCIAL
CORPORATE BUSINESS
[Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]
Sources
Uses
External
Period
Total
Cr edit market ft nds
Internal 1
Total
Total
Other 2
Total
Capital
expenditures 3
Increase in
financial
assets
Discrepancy
(sources less
uses)
Securities
and
mortgages
Loans and
short-term
paper
61.3
68.2
55.5
49.2
3.6
62.3
57.8
27.8
309.0
362.5
341.6
349.6
283.6
395.1
457.6
430.9
216.9
238.3
244.1
286.3
256.3
271.4
376.3
367.2
92.0
124.3
97.5
63.3
27.3
123.8
81.4
63.7
15.5
-8.5
7.0
31.2
45.8
40.0
53.6
42.6
1978 r.
1979 '.
1980 r.
1981 r.
1982 r.
1983 '
1984 '.
1985''
324.5
354.0
348.6
380.8
329.4
435.1
511.3
473.5
182.3
197.6
200.1
239.5
242.3
288.1
338.1
370.4
142.2
156.5
148.5
141.3
87.1
147.0
173.1
103.1
81.0
88.2
93.0
92.2
83.5
84.7
115.4
75.3
33.3
21.0
52.1
21.8
44.0
57.3
-11.2
11.7
47.7
67.3
40.9
70.4
39.5
27.4
126.5
63.6
1984: I '
II T.
III r
IV '.
532.6
521.1
462.7
528.7
324.8
334.4
343.9
349.6
207.8
186.7
118.8
179.1
113.9
92.5
85.2
169.8
-27.8
-57.6
.5
40.3
141.7
150.1
84.7
129.5
93.8
94.3
33.6
9.4
491.9
468.1
394.5
476.0
356.6
381.8
385.5
381.1
135.3
86.3
9.0
94.9
40.7
53.0
68.2
52.6
1985: I '
II'
III r
IV
423.9
462.9
481.5
525.5
358.3
364.6
382.7
376.1
65.6
98.3
98.8
149.4
64.8
74.2
56.0
106.3
-13.4
31.6
11.2
17.5
78.2
42.6
44.8
88.8
7
24.0
42.9
43.1
390.5
418.8
441.8
472.2
356.7
366.0
365.5
380.8
33.8
52.8
76.3
91.4
33.5
44.0
39.7
53.3
3
Consists of tax liabilities, trade debt, and direct foreign investment in the U.S.
Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve Svstem.
CURRENT ASSETS AND LIABILITIES OF NONFINANCIAL
CORPORATIONS
[Billions of dollars, except as noted]
C urrent liabiliti s
Curren assets
End of period
Total
Cash
US
Govern-
seeurities
QFE-FEB series: 2
1978
1979
1980 r
1981 r
1982 r
1983 r
1984 r
1983: III r
IV
1984: I r
II r
III r
IV
1985: l r
II r
Ill"
1
1,043.7
1,214.8
1,328.3
1,419.6
1,437.1
1,575.9
1,703.0
1,537.3
1,575.9
1,619.5
1,650.0
1,685.9
1,703.0
1,715.9
1,725.2
1,750.5
105.5
118.0
127.0
135.6
147.8
171.8
173.6
155.0
171.8
167.6
164.9
161.3
173.6
167.9
170.6
178.6
17.2
16.7
18.7
17.7
23.0
31.0
36.2
27.5
31.0
35.4
37.2
33.0
36.2
34.7
34.1
31.1
Notes arid
accounts
receivable
Invento-
388.0
459.0
507.5
532.5
517.4
583.0
633.1
567.5
583.0
606.4
622.6
639.1
633.1
647.4
648.5
653.2
Total current assets divided by total current liabilities.
Based on data from Quarterly Financial Report for Manufacturing, Mining, and Trade Corporations, Effective mid-1982, responsibility for the Quarterly Financial Report was transferred to
the Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census from the Federal Trade Commission.
2
431.8
505.1
543.0
584.0
579.0
603.4
656.9
600.8
603.4
622.2
632.5
659.3
656.9
664.7
663.7
670.1
Other
current
assets
101.1
116.0
132.1
149.7
169.8
186.7
203.2
186.6
186.7
187.9
192.9
193.2
203.2
201.1
208.3
217.4
Total
669.5
807.3
890.6
971.3
986.0
1,059.6
1,163.6
1,040.2
1,059.6
1,093.1
1,126.3
1,155.0
1,163.6
1,171.5
1,176.0
1,203.8
Notes and
accounts
payable
383.0
460.8
514.4
547.1
550.7
595.7
647.8
571.0
595.7
601.9
623.4
642.2
647.8
635.3
647.3
664.2
Other
current
liabilities
Net
working
capital
286.5
346.5
376.2
424.1
435.3
374.3
407.5
437.8
448.3
451.1
463.9
515.8
469.2
463.9
491.2
502.9
512.9
515.8
536.2
528.7
539.5
516.3
539.5
497.1
516.3
526.5
523.7
530.8
539.5
544.4
549.3
546.7
Current
ratio l
1.559
1.505
1.492
1.462
1,458
1.487
1.464
1.478
1.487
1.482
1.465
1.460
1.464
1.465
1,467
1.454
NOTE.—Series revised beginning 1980.
Sources: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Department of Commerce (Bureau
of the Census), and Federal Trade Commission.
INTEREST RATES AND BOND YIELDS
Interest rates fell in March.
PER CENT PER ANNU SA
16
S
I /yi1
?
:
i
i/A
;.••/ i ,;
/ ;
i ':
:
••
\ /
-w//
n
u*
--i
.
•;
M/ ' 1
'\ /I t
:
• V j
'
1 j
i
/
(MOODY'S)
\
\
>
X
/
-/ \
'
\ /
\
'•-.
\
A
/ '-\ x
<•/
-
L
. 1
/N
\/"
10
\
\
\
;
•
/ \
,• .;
1
/ ^'
-DISCOUNT—
IT
/\
8
RATE
FEDERAL
RESERVE
BANK OF
NEW YORK
j—y
r?"
I/
••-•'
6
4
1
t*' \
\
\
I,
12
\
\
TRE «.SURY
E ILLS
i,
i
14
ND5
''
5
!'
J
j
co RPORATE Aaa K
'
/ i
: ••/•-,
/ ' '.
L
:
'
i
rf
J; ,
p/
A
F*
y
j rPT
12
^' \1
\ L.'
—r-lrtHr
f
:
rn jj
8
PERCENT PER ANN UM
16
t
u.. -
1
'+
'
6
•JM 1 1 1 i i i i i
I 11! 1I ! I M !
i
i !i i it
tiill
i !i ii t i
1 1 1
1980
1979
1978
198)
1 1i 1 1 1 1 1 M 1
1982
mill
1 1 II
1984
1983
1 1 1 1 1 M
MM,r
COUNCIL C F ECONOM C
SOURCE; SEE TABLE BEL DW
4
19 86
1985
ADVISERS
[Percent per annum]
U.S. T reasury security _irields
Period
11.506
14.029
10.686
8.63
9.58
7.48
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1985:
1986:
3-month bills
{new issues) J
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar"
Week ended:
1986: Mar 1
8
15
22
29
1
8.22
8.57 •
8.00
7.56
7.01
7.05
7.18
7.08
7.17
7.20
7.07
7.04
7.03
6.59
6.96
6.92
6.55
6.52
6.36
Constant ir aturities
3-year
2
10-year
High-grade
municipal
bonds
(Standard3 &
Poor's)
30
Prime
commercial
paper,
6 months *
Discount rate
(N.Y. F.R.
Bank)5
Prime rate
charged 5by
banks
New-home
mortgage
yields
(FHLBB)6
15.27
12.66
14.70
15.14
12.57
12.38
11.55
14.44
12.92
10.45
11.89
9.64
11.46
13.91
13.00
11.10
12.44
10.62
8.51
11.23
11.57
9.47
10.15
8.18
11.94
14.17
13.79
12.04
12.71
11.37
12.29
14.76
11.89
8.89
10.16
8.01
11.77
13.41
11.02
8.50
8.80
7.69
10.55
11.05
10.49
9.75
9.05
9.18
9.31
9.37
9.25
8.88
8.40
8.41
8.10
7.32
11.51
11.86
11.43
10.85
10.16
10.31
10.33
10.37
10.24
9.78
9.26
9.19
8.70
7.80
9.66
9.79
9.48
9.08
8.78
8.90
9.18
9.37
9.24
8.64
8.51
12.13
12.56
12.23
11.72
10.94
10.97
11.05
11.07
11.02
10.55
10.16
8.69
9.23
8.47
7.88
7.38
7.57
7.74
7.86
7.79
7.69
7.62
8.00-8.00
8.00-8.00
8.00-8.00
8.00-7.50
7.50-7.50
7.50-7.50
7.50-7.50
7.50-7.50
7.50-7.50
7.50-7.50
7.50-7.50
10.50-10.50
10.50-10.50
10.50-10.50
10.50-10.00
10.00- 9.50
9.50- 9.50
9.50- 9.50
9.50- 9.50
9.50- 9.50
9.50- 9.50
9.50- 9.50
8.06
7.44
7.07
10.05
9.67
9.02
7.62
7.54
7.08
7.50-7.50
7.50-7.50
7.50-
9.50- 9.50
9.50- 9.50
9.50-
7.91
7.51
7.26
7.29
8.29
8.01
7.72
7.80
6.98
6.88
6.81
7.34
7.25
9.29
9.08
8.98
9.03
7.48
7.27
7.04
7.01
7.50-7.50
7.50-7.00
7.00-7.00
7.00-7.00
7.00-
9.509.509.009.00
9.00-
Bank-discount basis.
Yields on the more actively traded issues adjusted to constant maturities by the Treasury Department,
3
Weekly data are Wednesday figures.
4
Series excludes public utility issues for January 17, 1984 through October 11, 1984 due to lack
of appropriate issues.
2
Corporate
Aaa bonds
(Moody's) 4
18.87
14.86
10.79
12.04
9.93
12.21
11.92
12.05
12.01
11.75
11.34
11.24
11.17
11.09
11.01
10.94
* 10.89
10.69
9.50
9.00
9.00
9.00
5
Average effective rate for year; opening and closing rate for month and week.
6
Effective rate (in the primary market) on conventional mortgages, reflecting fees and charges as
well as contract rate and assumed, on the average, repayment at end of 10 years.
Sources: Department of the Treasury, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Feder
al Home Loan Bank Board, Moody's Investors Service, and Standard & Poor's Corporation.
COMMON STOCK PRICES AND YIELDS
Stock prices rose again in March.
INDEX, DEC. 31, 1965 = 50
140
INDEX, DEC. 31, 1965 = 50
140
130
—
120
110
—
100
90
—
80
70
60
—i 50
50
40
40
1986
PERC ENT
ENT
20
20
EARNIN<3S-PRICE RATIC3 ON COMMO N STOCKS
(S &P)
15
-*
/•
10
^HX
111
V.
1
1 1
1978
1 1 !
1979
1
1 1
1980
^
^^
1982
-"
*^
--^'
I 1 1
1983
1 1 1
1981
15
1
1 1
1984
SOURCES: NEW YORK STOCK EXCHANGE A •JD STANDARD & POOR'S CORPORATION
Dividendprice ratio
891.41
932.92
884.36
1,190.34
1,178.48
1,328.23
118.78
128.05
119.71
160.41
160.46
186.84
5.26
5.20
5.81
4.40
4.64
4.25
53.44
53.91
55.51
57.32
59.61
59.68
56.99
55.93
55.84
59.07
61.69
109.58
107.59
109.39
115.31
118.47
119.85
114.68
110.21
112.36
122.83
128.86
1,283.23
1,268.83
1,266.36
1,279.40
1,314.00
1,343.17
1,326.18
1,317.95
1,351.58
1,432.88
1,517.02
180.88
179.42
180.62
184.90
188.89
192.54
188.31
184.06
186.18
197.45
207.26
4.30
4.37
4.37
4.31
4.21
4.14
4.23
4.32
4.28
4.06
3.88
137.13
144.03
152.51
62.46
65.18
67.98
132.36
142.13
153.74
1,534.86
1,652.73
1,754.12
208.19
219.37
231.98
3.90
3.72
3.50
145.74
147.86
147.78
152.27
154.76
155.93
126.20
126.00
125.92
128.67
129.26
130.52
66.05
66.64
66.96
68.55
68.11
68.39
144.86
146.23
149.16
154.38
156.02
155.82
1,676.89
1,702.18
1,693.24
1,748.18
1,785.49
1,798.46
222.26
225.17
224.97
232.11
235.19
236.58
3.69
3.62
3.63
3.50
3.45
3.43
Week ended:
1986: Feb 22
Mar 1
8
15
22
29
128.07
129.70
130.00
133.85
135.45
136.29
120.71
119.64
119.93
121.88
124.11
126.94
124.92
122.35
123.65
130.53
136.77
Average of daily closing prices.
Includes all the" stocks (more than 1,500) listed on the NYSE.
Includes 30 stocks.
4
Includes 500 stocks.
5
Standard & Poor's series. Dividend-price ratios based on Wednesday closing prices. Earnings-
Finance
Dow-Jones
industrial
average 3
Standard &
Poor's
composite
index (194143=10) 4
64.25
73.52
71.99
95.34
89.28
114.21
78.70
85.44
78.18
107.45
108.01
123.79
3
CONOMIC ADVISERS
37.35
38.91
39.75
47.00
46.44
56.75
68.10
74.02
68.93
92.63
92.46
108.09
104.73
103.92
104.66
107.00
109.52
111.64
109.09
106.62
107.57
113.93
119.33
120.16
126.43
133.77
•s
1986
60.61
72.61
60.41
89.36
85.63
104.11
101.76
98.30
96.47
99.66
105.79
111.67
109.92
104.96
103.72
108.61
113.52
115.72
124.18
128.49
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1985: Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Get
Nov
Dec
1986: Jan
Feb
Mar"
1
Utility
1 1 1
Common st Dck 5yields
(perce n t )
Period
2
1 1
1985
;
Nevv York Stock Ex( hangc indexes (T ec. 31, 1965 — 5 O) 2
Industrial
1
COUNCIL OF
Co mmon stock price S
Composite
.
Earningsprice ratio
12.66
11.96
11.60
8.03
10.02
9.07
8.12
8.03
price ratios based on prices at end of quarter.
NOTE.—All data relate to stocks listed on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE).
Sources: New York Stock Exchange, Dow-Jones & Company, Inc., and Sf,andard & Poor's Corporation.
31
FEDERAL FINANCE
FEDERAL RECEIPTS, OUTLAYS, AND DEBT
In the first 5 months of fiscal 1986, there was a deficit of $106.2 billion compared with a deficit of $100.5 billion
a year earlier. The deficit is estimated at $202.8 billion for fiscal 1986 and at $143.6 billion for fiscal 1987.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
1,000
1,000
RECEIPTS AND OUTLAYS ^
900
900
800
800
"OUTLAYS 1
700
700
600
600
RECEIPTS y
500
500
400
400
-100
-100
-200
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1986
1985
1987
FISCAL YEARS
]/ INCLUDES ON-BUDGET AND OFF-BUDGET ITEMS.
COUNCIi OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS
SOURCES; DEPARTMENT OF THE TREASURY AND OFFICE OF MANAGEMENT AND BUDGET
[Billions of dollars]
Receipts
Outlays
Surplus
or deficit
(-)
Receipts
Outlays
Outlays
5.0
-7.9
.2
.3
914.3
1,003.9
1,147.0
1,381.9
1,576.7
715.1
794.4
929.4
1,141.8
1,312.6
176.8
184.7
198.6
9.4
13.2
15.7
1,827.5
2,112.0
2,320.6
1,509.9
1,714.0
1,855.7
71.0
72.1
1.9
5.1
1,702.8
1,983.4
1,405.4
1,629.0
369.1
403.5
2.0
-3.2
-1.4
-3.9
-4.3
-2.0
403.9
469.1
474.3
453.2
500.4
476.6
543.0
594.3
661.2
686.0
-72.7
-73.9
120.0
-208.0
185.6
113.2
130.2
143.5
147.3
166.1
114.3
135.2
151.4
147.1
165.8
-1.1
-212.3
-202.8
-143.6
547.9
579.2
636.1
769.5
795.2
795.4
-221.6
-216.0
-159.3
186.2
197.9
214.3
-100.5
- 106.2
217.7
230.2
320.1
341.4
-102.4
-111.3
72.9
77.1
1977
1978
1979
271.9
302.2
76.6
328.5
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
517.1
599.3
617.8
600.6
666.5
590.9
678.2
745.7
808.3
851.8
-73.8
-78.9
-127.9
-207.8
-185.3
1985
1986 *
1987 1
734.1
777.1
850.4
946.3
979.9
994.0
Cumulative total, first 5
months:
Fiscal year 1985
Fiscal year 1986
290.7
307.3
391.2
413.5
1
Estimates.
NOTE.—Data fron Budget of the United States Government, Fiscal Year 1987, Office of Man-
Held by
the public
396.9
480.3
498.3
551.8
610.9
644.6
60.4
69.6
19.4
80.7
89.7
100.0
216.6
231.7
63.2
278.7
314.2
365.3
Total
544.1
631.9
646.4
709.1
780.4
833.8
66.4
18.0
76.8
85.4
98.0
-53.2
-73.7
-14.7
-53.6
-59.2
-40.2
Receipts
Surplus
or deficit
(-)
62.5
332.3
371.8
96.0
409.2
458.7
503.5
32
Surplus
of deficit
(-)
55.3
-70.5
-13.3
-49.7
-54.9
-38.2
279.1
298.1
81.2
355.6
399.6
463.3
1975
1976
Transition quarter
Gross Fee eral debt
(end of period)
Off-budget
On-budget
Total
Fiscal year or period
agement and Budget, except cumulative monthly totals from Monthly Treasury Statement.
Sources: Department of the Treasury and Office of Management and Budget.
FEDERAL RECEIPTS BY SOURCE AND
OUTLAYS BY FUNCTION
According to the budget submitted in early February, total Federal receipts are estimated at $777.1 billion for
fiscal 1986 and at $850.4 billion for fiscal 1987. Outlays are estimated at $979.9 billion for fiscal 1986 and at
$994.0 billion for fiscal 1987.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
400
—
400
INDIVIDUAL INCOME TAXES
RECEIPTS!/
300
300
200
200
"*"""*
TAXES AND CONTRIBUTIONS
CORPORATION INCOME TAXES
100
100
0
0
700
-OUTLAYS^/ -
700
NONDEFENSE
600
600
500
500
400
400
300
300
NATIONAL DEFENSE
200
200
100
100
1978
1979
1981
1980
1982
1984
1983
1985
1986
1987
FISCAL YEARS
J/ INCLUDES ON-BUDGET AND OFF-BUDGET ITEMS.
SOURCES: DEPARTMENT OF THE TREASURY AND OFFICE OF MANAGEMENT AND BUDGET
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS
[Billions of dollars]
0n-budget a nd off-bu( *et receip
Fiscal year
Total
Individual
income
taxes
Corporation
income
taxes
Social
insurance
taxes
and
On-bud get and of -budget o itlays
s
Nations 1 defense
Other
Total
Total
butions
1976
1977
1978
1979
298.1
90.8
106.5
121.0
138.9
34.3
36.6
37.7
40.8
64.6
61.1
49.2
37.0
56.9
157.8
182.7
201.5
61.3
70.9
86.7
355.6
399.6
463.3
131.6
157.6
181.0
217.8
41.4
54.9
60.0
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
517.1
244.1
599.3
285.9
297.7
288.9
298.4
1985
1986 '
1987 >
734.1
777.1
334.5
353.7
386.0
1
617.8
600.6
666.5
850.4
65.7
371.8
89.6
88.1
409.2
458.7
503.5
97.2
104.5
116.3
95.3
102.3
113.7
590.9
678.2
745.7
808.3
134.0
157.5
185.3
209.0
239.4
50.6
69.5
69.3
65.6
71.8
851.8
265.2
280.4
302.8
73.0
72.1
74.9
946.3
979.9
994.0
Estimates.
NOTE.—Data shown here exclude the transition quarter.
AH data from Budget of the United States Government, Fiscal Year 1987, Office of Management
and Budget.
Department of
Defense,
military
International
affairs
6.4
6.4
Health
15.7
17.3
18.5
Medicare
Income
securi'J
Social
security
Net
interest
15.8
60.8
61.0
61.5
66.4
73.9
85.1
93.9
104.1
26.7
29.9
35.4
42.6
82.8
93.0
114.7
119.6
Other
7.5
7.5
20.5
19.3
22.8
26.5
209.9
227.4
131.0
153.8
180.7
204.4
220.8
12.7
13.1
12.3
11.8
15.9
23.2
26.9
27.4
28.6
30.4
32.1
39.1
46.6
52.6
57.5
86.5
99.7
107.7
122.6
112.7
118.5
139.6
156.0
170.7
178.2
52.5
68.7
85.0
89.8
111.1
131.4
133.5
125.4
122.3
118.6
252.7
265.8
282.2
245.4
258.4
274.3
16.2
17.1
18.6
33.5
35.7
35.0
65.8
68.7
70.2
128.2
118.1
118.4
188.6
200.1
212.2
129.4
142.7
148.0
131.8
131.7
109.3
Data for first 5 months of fiscal 1985 and fiscal 1986 not yet available on basis comparable with
other data shown here.
Sources: Department of the Treasury and Office of Management and Budget.
33
FEDERAL SECTOR, NATIONAL INCOME ACCOUNTS BASIS
In the fourth quarter of 1985, according to preliminary estimates, Federal receipts rose $15.5 billion (annual rate)
and expenditures rose $38.4 billion, yielding a deficit of $224.2 billion.
BILL1O NS OF DOLLAR
SEASC NALLY ADJUSTS
B UIONS OF DO LLARS
,
^
1,000
,'
AN ••JUAL RATES
1,000
-^ '"'
900
—
/•*
800
- EXPENDIT JRE S
—
\
—
__-'
r^T
700
400
f
500
400
1
\
900
.*•*
. — •._-
—
-
7"
.
,,,-«-
800
/
•r*
^S
---'
^
^—'
^
700
,x
^^_
—
—
600
RECEIPTS
500
__~> J
~"~'""\
^cd_l
400
1
1
1
1
1
\
1
\
1
\
1
•^
SURPLUS OR [DEFICIT (- )
0
!i1 IIIIIim
\ iiiI%il1%l%1
1
I
mwvava "*•
V^V/A
1
-100
-200
1977
1979
1978
19(J3
1982
1981
1980
19 34
0
-100
-200
1985
CALENDAR YEARS
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS
SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE
[Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]
Federal Governme it receipts
Period
Total
Fiscal year:
1982
1983
1984
1985
Calendar year:
1982
1983
1984
1985 '.
1982: m
IV
1983: I
n
m
IV
1984: I
n
m
IV
1985: I
n
mr
TV
643.3
644.6
710.1
773.1
635.3
658.1
725.1
785.4
630.3
633.1
636.3
665.2
659.7
671.1
709.4
721.8
727.1
742.1
789.7
754.9
790.7
806.2
Corporate
profits
tax
accruals
Indirect
business
tax and
nontax
accruals
310.0
292.9
304.0
52.1
54.5
73.6
50.0
50.2
345.2
67.6
304.5
295.0
311.3
350.7
298.1
303.0
297.1
304.2
286.2
292.5
297.8
303.9
315.7
327.8
363.9
321.3
355.4
362.1
49.0
59.3
74.4
67.7
50.1
46.4
Personal
tax and
nontax
receipts
48.1
51.6
55.8
57.0
47.1
47.6
46.3
52.8
53.7
53.6
46.5
58.2
66.4
66.1
78.9
80.1
69.4
69.2
54.6
55.8
56.7
56.2
65.9
65.0
68.9
71.1
55.5
60.2
55.4
56.9
Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.
34
54.9
56.4
Federal (government expenditur es
Contributions for
social
insurance
Total
231.1
247.0
277.6
304.0
833.5
875.6
963.2
233.7
252.2
283.6
309.9
235.0
236.1
246.5
250.1
253.4
258.8
278.1
282.0
285.4
288.9
304.4
308.4
311.0
315.9
781.2
837.5
898.0
984.7
789.1
835.7
824.2
835.8
839.4
850.6
867.2
884.9
905.2
934.7
952.4
964.0
992.0
1,030.4
755.9
Purchases
of goods
and
services
264.4
288.2
299.5
342.2
272.7
284.8
312.9
355.4
275.3
293.2
287.1
287.0
286.0
279.2
285.6
314.8
318.5
332.9
334.4
337.8
364.8
384.7
Transfer
payments
312.8
347.4
352.2
373.0
324.1
348.5
355.1
379.8
329.1
347.4
344.4
350.8
346.6
352.3
350.5
351.9
356.2
361.9
374.1
376.7
383.5
384.8
in-aid to
State
and
local
governments
83.4
85.7
90.7
97.8
83.9
86.2
93.6
99.0
83.3
84.5
85.8
85.8
87.1
86.2
91.3
93.0
93.0
97.3
95.7
97.6
100.6
102.0
Net
interest
paid
82.2
90.6
109.7
128.7
84.6
94.3
115.5
129.2
87.1
87.2
88.0
91.1
96.8
101.2
107.2
110.4
119.5
124.8
126.4
130.1
127.1
133.0
Subsidies
less
current
surplus of
Government
enter-
Less:
Wage
accruals
less
disbursements
or deficit
(-),
national
income
and
product
accounts
13.0
21.2
23.5
21.4
0.0
.4
— .1
.1
-112.6
16.0
23.2
21.1
.0
-.4
.2
-.2
.0
.0
.0
-1.3
-.4
.0
145.9
-179.4
-172.9
199.3
-158.8
-202.6
187.9
170.6
-179.7
-179.5
157.8
-163.0
-178.1
192.7
-162.6
-209.1
-201.3
-224.2
21.1
14.3
23.4
18.8
19.8
22.5
31.6
32.7
15.1
18.0
18,5
21.9
20.9
15.9
25.9
.2
.2
.0
.6
.1
-1.0
.0
.0
188.9
-165.5
190.1
INTERNATIONAL STATISTICS
INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION AND CONSUMER PRICES—MAJOR
INDUSTRIAL COUNTRIES
Industrial reduction (1977 = 1 X); seasonal v adjusted
Period
United
States
Canada
1979
110.7
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985"
108.6
111.0
103.1
109.2
121.8
124.5
1985: Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
Julv
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dee
123.7
124.0
124.1
124.1
124.3
124.1
125.2
125.1
1986:
1
124.4
125.4
126.3
r
Jan
Feb"
109.8
108.1
109.0
97.4
102.9
112.0
116.8
114.0
114.2
115.0
115.0
116.4
118.1
118.1
118.0
119.1
119.6
120.4
Japan
France
113.7
118.9
107
106
120.1
120.6
124.7
138.4
103
101
102
105
106
107
105
102
103
106
112
105
107
104
105
104
108
108
105
107
109
104
109
110
110
111
113
116
112
112
116
117
111
144.8
142.8
140.8
144.5
148.2
145.1
147.8
146.0
144.6
145.7
144.1
145.2
United
Kingdom
Germany
Italy
107
108.7
114.7
112.1
r
r
r
109
109
108
108
r 108
l!0.1
' 106.5
l!0.4
106.0
106
!08
no
no
r 109
108
126.5
125.7
Data relate to all urban consumers.
Canada
Ciiited
Kingdom
Japan
France
Germany
261.3
282.3
296.2
259.1
294.2
332.7
289.1
298.4
311.1
322.2
221.0
243.5
273.9
303.5
321.0
335.0
348.3
304.1
309.7
316.6
323.0
373.1
407.9
439.5
465.1
166.9
175.8
186.9
196.8
203.3
208.2
212.7
328.5
398.0
472.4
549.4
631.8
698.8
764.7
359.0
423.6
473.9
514.7
538.3
565.1
599.4
317.4
318.8
320.1
321.3
322.3
322.8
323.5
324.5
325.5
326.6
327.4
343.5
344.3
345.7
346.5
348.3
349.5
350.1
350.5
351.7
353.1
354.7
318.7
320.2
321.9
323.3
323.5
323.8
320.7
323.8
328.4
325.0
325.2
455.8
459.0
462.2
464.5
466.4
468.2
468.7
469.2
470.6
471.5
472.1
211.9
212.6
212.9
213.1
213.3
212.9
212.2
212.6
212.9
213.3
213.5
744.2
749.4
756.1
760.6
764.4
766.7
768.2
771.3
780.6
786.1
791.6
582.7
588.1
600.6
603.4
604.7
603.5
605.1
604.8
605.8
607.9
608.7
328.4
327.5
356.3
357.7
325.8
472.6
213.8
217.4
246.8
272.4
100
96
98
101
103
108
r
!11.7
r
l!2.0
' 107.2
108.3
111.3
'r 107.2
!07.6
United
States '
107
109.6
103.9
!07.1
108.4
r
Consuim r prices (' 967 = 100)
...
Italy
610.0
612.2
Source: National sources as reported by Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis
and International Trade Administration).
U.S. MERCHANDISE EXPORTS AND IMPORTS
[Millions of dollars; monthly data for statistical month, not seasonally adjusted*]
Merc handise expo I s 1
Period
foreign
exports
Total
2
Food,
beverages, and
tobacco
Crude
materials and
fuels
Mercha ndise trade 3alance
Merc landise imp orts
Gei eral import
Domestic exports
Total
domestic
factured
goods
Total 2
Food,
beverages, and
tobacco
Crude
materials and
fuels
3
Exports
factured
goods
Total
(c.i.f.
value)
6,379
8,360
9,352
10,427
13,368
15,504
18,519
21,415
less
(customs
value)
Exports
(f.a.s.)
less
imports
(f.a.s.)
Exports
(f.a.s.)
imports
(c.i.f.)
I .a.s. valu e
Monthly average:
1977
1978
1979
1980
10,103
11,973
15,155
18,386
9,919
11,762
14,886
18,043
1,330
1,717
2,049
2,534
1,548
1,746
2,352
2,810
6,679
7,873
9,716
11,991
12,533
14,563
17,455
20,406
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
19,473
17,683
16,707
18,155
17,762
19,075
17,256
16,326
17,670
17,244
2,767
2,248
2,248
2,276
1,852
2,752
2,793
2,463
2,624
2,362
12,857
11,643
11,034
11,929
12,115
21,748
20,329
21,504
27,144
28,773
1,529
1,485
1,568
1,802
1,865
7,739
6,200
5,670
6,063
5,415
11,873
12,002
13,621
18,460
20,565
-2,275
22,779
-2,647
21,240
-4,797
22,490
-8,988
28,431
30,136 — 11,011
-3,306
-3,558
-5,783
-10,276
-12,373
18,673
17,143
20,330
17,973
18,337
18,012
16,727
16,584
17,034
17,618
17,721
16,994
18,124
16,648
19,765
17,492
17,816
17,433
16,172
16,106
16,543
17,122
17,227
16,479
2,161
1,995
1,973
1,913
1,603
1,614
1,604
1,783
1,709
1,836
2,128
1,907
2,671
2,580
2,562
?,441
2,261
2,122
2,033
2,258
2,115
2,285
2,559
2,459
12,445
11,218
14,245
12,228
12,992
12,759
11,556
11,233
11,700
12,102
11,688
11,221
28,836
25,941
28,725
28,572
29,302
30,136
27,000
26,247
31,349
28,429
30,010
30,728
1,932
1,817
2,128
1,804
1,919
1,912
1,641
1,719
1,903
1,598
1,865
2,138
5,344
4,906
4,383
5,772
5,700
6,054
5,085
4,851
5,562
5,656
5,657
6,011
20,448
18,385
21,301
20,080
20,725
21,268
19,286
18,916
22,887
20,271
21,557
21,654
30,245
27,169
30,107
29,907
30,712
31,596
28,312
27,512
32,860
29,695
31,371
32,141
-10,163
-8,798
-8,395
-10,599
-10,965
-12,124
-10,274
-9,663
-14,315
-10,811
-12,290
-13,734
-11,572
-10,026
-9,777
-11,935
-12,375
-13,584
-11,585
-10,927
-15,826
-12,077
-13,651
-15,146
17,006
17,735
16,501
17,164
1,797
1,689
2,467
2,367
11,393
12,182
32,005
2,215
6,234
22,477
33,465 -14,999
30,225
- 16,459
-12,491
1,186
1,312
1,478
1,546
4,463
4,325
5,949
7,831
-2,430
-2,590
-2,300
-2,020
-3,265
-3,530
— 3,364
-3,030
Customs value
1985:
r
Jan'
Feb'
Mar*
Apr'
May*
June*
Julv*
Aug*
Sept*
Oct*
Nov*
Dec*
1986: Jan*
Feb*
1
Department of Defense shipments of grant-aid military supplies and equipment under the Military Assistance Program are excluded from totals for all periods and from monthly detail beginning
January 1978.
2
Total includes commodities and transactions not classified according to kind.
3
Total arrivals of imported goods other than intransit shipments.
NOTE.—Imports on c.i.f. basis beginning 1982 not strictly comparable with earlier periods.
Data beginning 1980 include trade of the U.S. Virgin Islands, except that for 1980 Virgin Islands exports are reflected in the figures for domestic and foreign exports combined and trade balance.
Data for 1977-79 for domestic and foreign exports combined, total general imports, and trade
balance include trade of the Virgin Islands.
'Beginning with data for January 1986, the Bureau of the Census no longer publishes these data
on a seasonally adjusted basis. Beginning with this issue of Economic Indicators, all monthly data
are therefore not seasonally adjusted. For further information and for details regarding revised statistical month and monthly carryover data, see Bureau of the Census release FT 900.
Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census.
35
U.S. INTERNATIONAL TRANSACTIONS
In the fourth quarter of 1985 the current account deficit rose to $36.6 billion from $29.3 billion in the third
quarter. The merchandise trade deficit rose to $39.5 billion from $33.0 billion in the third quarter.
BILLI ONS OF DOLL/^RS*
BILL! ONS OF DOLL/»RS*
10
10
BALANCE Oh-1 GOODS
AND SERVICES
5
/
r^
/F\^~*
A ./Ov-*
"^X
v.
"*"*\
N
f \
__„•••*
^
«./'
BA ^^\
LANCE ON
CURRE;NT ACCOUNT
~~
^
\
*•"""
"s.
o
r \\
ys. *.~
\s ^^. __-/
A
A
Vi
.*' \
\\
~\^/
*
/
V
--
-N.
MERCHANDISE TR ADE
BALANCE
5
\\
10
\
ff*
-1 5
\ V
*\ \\
\ x
•
\\ \ \ \
15
"^\
\
V- "V«
\
'x^
\
\t
V-
20
A
<A \
r\ Vn
rf
\^*%,
-25
'VA
N/
\ ^\ \
\\ \
\ \
\\
1 1 1
-40
1
1977
1
1
1 j 1
1979
1978
-30
\ \ t
35
\
1
1
1
1
1980
1
1
1981
1
1
1
1982
1 1 1
I
1983
1 1
1984
i i r.
-40
1985
* SEASONALLY ADJUSTED
SOURCE: DEPARTMEN I OF COMMERCE
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS
[Millions of dollars; quarterly data seasonally adjusted. Credits ( + ), debits ( —)]
Inivestment inconie 3
l
Merchandise ''
Period
Exports
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985"
1983: I
rr
ni
IV
1984: I
n
m
IV
1985: lr.
rr
IIK....
IV"
1
2
3
Imports
Net
balance
27,536
-25,480
-27,978
— 36,444
-268,928 -67,216
334,023 -114,107
-338,279 -124,289
Net
Receipts
Payments
64,132
72,506
86,411
84,768
78,023
87,609
90,456
-32,960
-42,120
-52,329
-55,273
-52,621
-68,500
-65,772
31,172
30,386
34,082
29,495
25,402
19,109
24,684
N eti
military
transactions
Net
travel and
transportation
receipts
-1,778 -2,935
-2,237
-997
144
-1,183
-318
-992
-162
-4,721
-1,765 -8,974
-2,045 -11,741
Other
services,
net 3
Balance on
goods and
services l
Kemittances,
pensions,
and other
unilateral
transfers J
Balance
on current
account
-991
4,659
-5,649
8,950
-7,077
7,277
1,873
8,121
13,186 -6,847
6,339
-8,051
8,345
84 -8,135
9,557 -37,141 -8,852 -45,994
9,791 -95,945 -11,413 - 107,358
10,512 -102,880 -14,784 -117,664
184,473
224,269
237,085
211,198
201,712
219,916
213,990
-212,009
-249,749
-265,063
-247,642
49,535
49,048
49,992
53,137
58,418
-64,928
-70,689
-74,893
-8,883
-15,880
-20,697
-21,756
17,935
19,172
20,985
19,932
-12,283
-12,856
-13,588
-13,893
5,652
6,316
7,397
6,039
703
-71
-126
-669
-448
-1,116
-1,422
-1,735
2,260
2,462
2,290
2,544
-716
-8,289
-12,558
-15,577
-1,606
-1,875
-2,204
-3,166
-2,322
-10,164
-14,762
-18,743
53,469
54,556
55,649
56,242
-78,091
-84,181
-84,626
-87,127
-24,622
-29,625
-28,977
-30,885
23,502
20,895
21,769
21,445
-15,268
-17,277
-18,513
-17,442
8,234
3,618
3,256
4,003
-346
-593
-250
-575
-1,753
-2,050
-2,574
-2,597
2,582
2,412
2,452
2,344
-15,905
-26,238
-26,093
-27,710
-2,212
-2,232
-2,876
-4,095
-18,117
-28,470
-28,969
-31,805
55,198
53,530
52,276
52,986
-78,563
— 82,017
-85,231
-92,468
-23,365
-28,487
-32,955
-39,482
18,861
22,270
24,896
24,428
-16,331
-16,892
- 16,245
-16,304
2,530
5,378
8,651
8,124
-212
-586
-429
-818
-2,389
-3,090
-3,112
-3,150
2,425
2,587
2,541
2,956
-21,011
-24,198
-25,304
-32,370
-3,372
-3,428
-3,996
-4,189
-24,183
-27,626
-29,300
-36,559
Excludes military grants.
Adjusted from Census data for differences in timing and coverage.
Fees and royalties from U.S. direct investments abroad or from foreign direct investments in the
36
5,735
United States are excluded from investment income and included in other services, net.
Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.
U.S. INTERNATIONAL TRANSACTIONS—Continued
In the capital accounts, claims on foreigners reported by U.S. banks increased $8.6 billion in the fourth quarter of
1985 compared with an increase of $1.5 billion in the third quarter. Liabilities to private foreigners reported by
U.S. banks increased $20.5 billion, compared to an increase of $6.5 billion in the third quarter.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS*
60
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS*
60
CHANGE IN
FOREIGN ASSETS
IN THE U.S..NET
40
40
20
20
CHANGE IN
U.S. ASSETS
ABROAD.NET
-20
-20
-40
-40
I
-60
1977
I
-60
1981
1980
1982
1983
1984
1985
'SEASON,
SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS
[Millions of dollars; quarterly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted]
U.S. assets abroad, net
1 increase/capit il outflow (— )
Period
Total
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985"
1983:
I
n
ni
IV
1984:
I
n
m
IV
1985:
I
T
nr
m r ...
TV p ...
U.S.
Other U.S.
reserve
assets 1 2
ment
assets
Foreign assets in the ' J.S., net
[increas /capital inflow» ( + )] z
U.S.
private
assets
Total
Other
foreign
assets
(SDKs)
Statistical discrepancy
1
Of which:
Total (sum
Seasonal
of the items
adjustment
with sign
reversed)
discrepancy
25,431
24,982
20,276
32,821
16,717
30,486
32,739
assets, net 1
(unadjusted,
end of
period)
-3,746
-59,453
-5,162
-72,802
-5,097 -100,758
6,131 -108,122
-5,006
-48,843
-5,516
-11,800
-2,628
-31,697
38,752
58,112
83,322
94,447
84,322
97,319
123,108
— 13,665
15,497
4,960
3,672
5,795
3,424
-1,908
52,416
42,615
78,362
90,775
78,526
93,895
125,016
-1,135
-1,263
— 1,171
-1,436
-24,205
119
-9,172
-15,587
15,158
15,608
19,539
34,017
-161
1,706
-2,666
6,916
15,319
13,902
22,205
27,101
13,291
-4,316
5,037
2,702
680
83
2,953
3,547
34,261
33,876
33,066
33,747
-657
566
-799
-1,110
-2.059
-1,353
-1,369
-734
-2,260
17,070
20,532
-13,003
19,277
41,592
3,140
33,310
-2,786
-224
-686
7,119
22.063
41,816
3,825
26,191
3,816
5,866
7,466
13,341
-455
-573
-3,274
4,305
34,975
34,547
34,306
34,934
-233
356
-121
-3,148
-850
853
-392
532
621
1,342
-12,235
-18,742
13,711
26,313
34,548
48,536
-11,204
8,465
2,435
- 1,604
24,915
17,849
32,113
50,140
10,934
3,863
7,500
10,444
-425
-597
-3,650
4,674
35,493
36,088
38,295
43,186
-64,331
-86,118
-111,031
— 119,218
-55,045
-20,447
-38,183
-1,133
8,155
-5,175
4,965
-1,196
3,131
-3,858
-26,127
-1,128
-9,814
-17,976
-787
16
529
-953
-4,976
-18,988
18,364
- 14,846
-462
-2,551
-12,748
-22,421
1
Consists of gold, special drawing rights (SDKs), convertible currencies, and the U.S. reserve
position in the IMF.
2
Quarterly data are not seasonally adjusted.
Foreign
official
assets
Allocations
of special
drawing
1,139
1,152
1,093
18,956
26,756
30,074
33,958
33,747
34,934
43,186
Sources: Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis) and Department of the
Treasury.
37
Contents
TOTAL OUTPUT, INCOME, AND SPENDING
^
Gross National Product
Gross National Product in 1982 Dollars
Implicit Price Deflators for Gross National Product
Changes in GNP, Personal Consumption Expenditures, and Related Price Measures
Nonfinancial Corporate Business—Output, Costs, and Profits
National Income
Personal Consumption Expenditures
Sources of Personal Income
Disposition of Personal Income
Farm Income
Corporate Profits
Gross Private Domestic Investment
Expenditures for New Plant and Equipment
1
2
2
3
3
4
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
EMPLOYMENT, UNEMPLOYMENT, AND WAGES
Status of the Labor Force
Selected Unemployment Rates
Selected Measures of Unemployment and Unemployment Insurance Programs
Nonagricultural Employment
Average Weekly Hours and Hourly Earnings—Private Nonagricultural Industries
Average Weekly Earnings—Private Nonagricultural Industries
Productivity and Related Data, Business Sector
11
12
13
14
15
15
16
PRODUCTION AND BUSINESS ACTIVITY
Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization
Industrial Production—Major Market Groups and Selected Manufactures
New Construction
New Private Housing and Vacancy Rates
Business Sales and Inventories—Manufacturing and Trade
Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories, and Orders
17
18
19
19
20
21
PRICES
Producer Prices
Consumer Prices—All Urban Consumers
Changes in Producer Prices for Finished Goods
Changes in Consumer Prices—All Urban Consumers
Prices Received and Paid by Farmers
22
23
24
24
25
MONEY, CREDIT, AND SECURITY MARKETS
Money Stock, Liquid Assets, and Debt Measures
Components of Money Stock and Liquid Assets
Consumer Installment Credit
Bank Loans and Securities, and Reserves
Sources and Uses of Funds, Nonfarm Nonfinancial Corporate Business
Current Assets and Liabilities of Nonfinancial Corporations
Interest Rates and Bond Yields
Common Stock Prices and Yields
26
27
27
28
29
29
30
31
FEDERAL FINANCE
Federal Receipts, Outlays, and Debt
Federal Receipts by Source and Outlays by Function
Federal Sector, National Income Accounts Basis
32
33
34
INTERNATIONAL STATISTICS
Industrial Production and Consumer Prices—Major Industrial Countries
U.S. Merchandise Exports and Imports
U.S. International Transactions
35
35
36
General Notes
Detail in these tables may not add to totals because of rounding.
Unless otherwise noted, all dollar figures are in current dollars.
Symbols used:
p
Preliminary.
' Revised.
c
Corrected.
... Not available (also, not applicable).
NSA not seasonally adjusted.
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