Gross National Product or Expenditure

Name: Gross National Product or Expenditure
Creator: FRASER
Keywords: Economic Data, Economic indicators, Economic conditions, United States

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The following is plain-text output generated by Optical Character Recognition. 87th Congress 1st Session f uG Economic Indicators MAY 1961 Prepared for the Joint Economic Committee by the Council of Economic Advisers The November I960 issue of Economic Indicators introduced a n u m l x i l revisions resulting from the recent review of the needs of the Jomr I i n m i Committee and other users of the publication The revised lnei n ii n t i n m n ratcs more seasonally adjusted data expanded detail on some i n s MH h as unemployment and new information such as the balance of payim ms The I960 revised edition of the Supplement to Economic In In A M which describes each series and gives annual data for years not shown m the monthly issues is now available from the Superintendent of D o r u n n n i s n v e r n m e n t Priming Office UNITED STATES GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE WASHINGTON JOINT ECONOMIC COMMITTEE Created pursuant to Sec 5 a of Public Law 304 79th Cong WRIGHT PATMAN Texas Chairman PAUL H DOUGLAS Illinois Viet Chairman SENATE HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES JOHN SPARKMAN Alabama RICHARD BOLLING Missouri J WILLIAM FULBRIGHT Arkansas HALE BOGGS Louisiana WILLIAM PROXMIRE Wisconsin HENRY S REUSS Wisconsin CLAIBORNE PELL Rhode Island MARTHA W GRIFFITHS Michigan PRESCOTT BUSH Connecticut THOMAS B CURTIS Missouri JOHN MARSHALL BUTLER Maryland CLARENCE E KILBURN New York JACOB K JAVITS New York WILLIAM B WIDNALL New Jersey WM SUMMERS JOHNSON Executive Director JOHN W LEHMAN Deputy Executive Director and Clerk COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS WALTER W HELLER Chairman KERMIT GORDON JAMES TOBIN PUBLIC LAW 120 Slsx CONGRESS CHAPTER 237 IST SESSION JOINT RESOLUTION SJ Res 55 To print the monthly publication entitled Economic Indicators TLtsolved by the Senate and House of Representatives of the United States of America in Congress assembled That the Joint Economic Committee be authorized to issue a monthly publication entitled Economic Indicators and that a sufficient quantity be printed to furnish one copy to each Member of Congress the Secretary and the Sergeant at Arms of the Senate the Clerk Sergeant at Arms and Doorkeeper of the House of Representatives two copies to the libraries of the Senate and House and the Congressional Library seven hundred copies to the Joint Economic Committee and the required number of copies to the Superintendent of Documents for distribution to depository libraries and that the Superintendent of Documents be authorized to have copies printed for sale to the public Approved June Charts drawn by Graphics Unit Office of the Secretary Department of Commerce Economic Indicators published monthly is available at 20 cents a single copy or by subscription at 2 00 per year foreign 2 75 from SUPERINTENDENT OF DOCUMENTS GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE WASHINGTON 25 D C Subscribers who wish to receive it at an earlier date after release may take advantage of provisions for airmail subscriptions The domestic airmail subscription price is 4 60 per year The I960 Supplement to Economic Indicators which describes each series and gives annual data for years not shown in the monthly issues is now available at 60 cents a copy 11 Contents TOTAL OUTPUT INCOME AND SPENDING The Nation s Income Expenditure and Saving Gross National Product or Expenditure National Income Sources of Personal Income Disposition of Personal Income Farm Income Corporate Profits Gross Private Domestic Investment Expenditures for New Plant and Equipment Page iv EMPLOYMENT UNEMPLOYMENT AND WAGES Status of the Labor Force Unemployment Insurance Programs Nonagricultural Employment Weekly Hours of Work Average Hourly and Weekly Earnings Selected Industries PRODUCTION AND BUSINESS ACTIVITY Industrial Production Production of Selected Manufactures Weekly Indicators of Production New Construction Housing Starts and Applications for Financing Trade Sales and Inventories Manufacturers Sales Inventories and New Orders Merchandise Exports and Imports U S Balance of Payments PRICES Consumer Prices Wholesale Prices Prices Received and Paid by Farmers MONEY CREDIT AND SECURITY MARKETS Money Supply Bank Loans Investments Debits and Reserves Consumer Credit Bond Yields and Interest Rates Stock Prices FEDERAL FINANCE Budget Receipts and Expenditures Cash Receipts from and Payments to the Public 31 32 NOTE Detail in these tables will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding Data for Alaska and Hawaii are not included unless specifically noted Unless otherwise stated all dollar figures are in current prices ill TOTAL OUTPUT INCOME AND SPENDING THE NATION S INCOME EXPENDITURE AND SAVING In the first quarter of 1961 the gross national product in current prices declined 3 7 billion seasonally adjusted annual rate from the previous quarter according to present estimates The major reduction was in the business sector Billions of dollars quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates Personal Disposable consumption personal expenditures Period Third quarter Fourth quarter 1960 First quarter Second quarter Third quarter Fourth quarter 1961 First quarter soas International Business Persons Personal Gross saving Gross private Excess of or retained domestic investearndisment investsaving ings 2 ment CO Foreign Net exports of goods Excess of net and services transfers trans or fers by of net Govern Net ExImexports ment exports ports ports Government Surplus or deficit Tax and TransPurTrans on fers Total fers income nontax chases Net and goods expendi interest receipts receipts interest of and and subor tures and sub product 4 accruals sidies sidies account Net receipts Period Third quarterFourth quarter 1960 First quarter Second quarter Third quarter Fourth quarter 1961 First quarter Expenditures Personal Income p 3 less persons taxes and nontax payments fines penalties etc Undistributed corporate profits corporate Inventory valuation adjustment capital oonsuropt Jon allowances and excess of wage accruals over disbursements 1 Net foreign investment wltb sign changed IV isa i Gross Total Statis national income tical product or or discrepreceipts ancy expenditure Government transfer payments to persons foreign net transfers by Government net interest paid by Government and subsidies less current surplus of Government enterprises Not available Source Department of Commerce GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT OR EXPENDITURE Current estimates indicate that gross national product in constant 1960 prices declined about 5 billion seasonally adjusted annual rate in the first quarter of 1961 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES 400 PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES 300 GOVERNMENT PURCHASES OF GOODS AND SERVICES NET EXPORTS OF GOODS AND SERVICES ROSS PRIVATE DOMESTIC INVESTMENT I SOURCE DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE COUNC il Of ECONOMIC AtWlSEBS Billions of dollars Period Total Personal Gross Net gross Total conprivate exports national gross sump domestic of goods tion product national and in 1960 product expend invest services ment itures prices s S62 S S S GO Government purchases of goods and services Federal Total Implicit price deflator for total GNP Total i National Other defense State and local Hcasonally adjusted annual rates 1950 Third quarter Fourth quarlcr 1900 First quarter Second quarter Third quarter Fourth quarter First quarter 488 5 J 0l S SOU S Less Government sales 1 These expenditures correspond closely with budget expenditures for major national security shown on p 31 f Gross national product in current prices divided by gross national product in 1960 prices Source Department of Commerce NATIONAL INCOME Compensation of employees and income of nonfarm proprietors seasonally adjusted declined again during the first quarter of 1961 In contrast farm proprietors income and net interest continued to rise BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES TOTAL NATIONAL INCOME CORPORATE PROFITS AND INVENTORY VALUATION ADJUSTMENT PROPRIETORS AND RENTAL INCOME S 1961 I SOURCE DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE C5uHcii Qf ICQNOMK JSBVISEES Billions of dollars Period Total national income Compensation of employees Business and professional Rental income of persons Proprietors income Farm Net interest Corporate profits and inventory valuation adjustment Total Profits Inventory before valuation taxes adjustment Seasonally adjusted annual rates 1959 Third quarter Fourth quarter 1960 First quarter Second quarter Third quarter Fourth quarter 1961 First quarter 1 1 Includes W employer contributions lor social Insurance See also p 3 Not available Source Department of Commerce SOURCES OF PERSONAL INCOME Personal income increased 0 5 billion seasonally adjusted annual rate in April to 410 3 billion If the steppedup dividend payment to veterans a nonrecurring item were excluded from the March total the rise would be 2 3 billion Labor income accounted for the rise BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 456 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BUSINESS PROFESSIONAL AND RENTAL INCOME COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS SOURCE DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE Period Total personal income March Apri May June July August September October XovcmbcT Deeembcr1961 January February March 3 April IOC G Billions of dollars Labor income Proprietors income Rental wage and Divisalary disBusiness income dends of bursements Farm and pro persons and other fessional labor income Se isonaliy adjusted a n n u a l J J i S Compensation of employees see p 2 excluding employer contributions for social insurance and the excess of wage accruals over disbursements 2 Personal income exclusive of net income of unincorporated farm enterprises farm wages agricultural net interest and net dividends paid by agricultural corporations 3 4 Less PerPersonal Transfer sonal contributions interest payincome ments for social insurance rates Nonagricultural personal income a Preliminary Includes stepped up payment of National Service Life Insurance dividends of 150 million 1 8 billion at annual rate Source Department of Commerce r DISPOSITION OF PERSONAL INCOME The decline in disposable income in the first quarter of 1961 marked the first reduction in more than 3 years the rate of decline in income was less than that in consumption expenditures the savins rate rose BILLIONS OF DOLLARS Since BILLIONS OF DOLLARS DISPOSABLE PERSONAL INCOME 300 CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES 250 I I I I l l I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I PER CAPITA DISPOSABLE PERSONAL INCOME IN CURRENT PRICES SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES SOURCE DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE Period Third quarter Fourth quarter 1960 First quarter Second quarter Third quarter Fourth quarter 1961 First quarter COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS Disposable personal income Personal consumption expenditures Total NonDurable durable Services goods goods Billions of dollars Seasonally adjusted annual Personal income p 3 less personal taxes and nontax payments fines penalties etc 3 Income in current prices divided by the implicit price deflator for personal consumption expenditures on a i960 base Personal saving rates J Jer capita disposable personal income Current prices 1960 prices Saving as percent Populaof distion posable thoupersonal sands 3 income percent Dollars Population of the United States excluding Alaska and Hawaii includes armed forces abroad Annual data as of July 1 quarterly data centered in tbe middle of the period interpolated from monthly figures Sources Department of Commerce and Council of Economic Advisers FARM INCOME Gross and net income of farm operators increased asain in the first quarter of 1961 and were appreciably above the rather low levels a year earlier BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES JO REALIZED GROSS FARM INCOME 30 eo NET FARM INCOME INCLUDINB NET INVENTORY CHANGE I MNCOME OF FARM OPERATORS FROM FARMING gQURCt DEPARTMENT OF A8RICULTURE SWNO1 D tOOKDMIC AOVBBB Income received by total farm population Income received by farm operators from farming Realized gross Period From all sources Third quarter Fourth quarter 1960 First quarter Second quarter Third quarter Fourth quarter 1961 First quarter From From agricul nonagritural cultural sources sources C 9 6 ProducCash tion ex Excludreceipts penses ing infrom Total ventory marketchange ings Billions of dollars Seasonally adjusted annual rates Net income of farm operators from farming including net inventory change and wages received by farm resident workers 3 Cash receipts from marketings Government payments and nonmoney income furnished by farms 3 Inventory of crops and livestock valued at the average price for the year The number of farms based on 1954 Census of Agriculture definition is held constant within a year The figures in millions for and 1961 are and 4 4 respectively Net income per farm including net inventory change Net Including net in Current 1960 ventory prices prices 5 change Dollars Income in current prices divided by the index of prices paid by farmers for family living items on a 1960 base Not available Source Department of Agriculture CORPORATE PROFITS Corporate profits before taxes in the fourth quarter of 1960 are estimated to have been 40 7 billion seasonally adjusted annual rate about 17 percent below their first quarter 1960 level BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES PROFITS BEFORE TAXES V CORPORATE TAXES eo IP I I960 iNO ALLOWANCE FOR INVENTORY VALUATION ADJUSTMENT COUNOl OF ECONOMIC ADYISHiSj SOURCE DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE Billions of dollars quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates Corporate profits before taxes and inventory valuation adjustment 1 TransManufacturing portation Period All All NoncomDurable durable muni other indusgoods tries Total indusgoods cations industries indusand tries tries public utilities I Third quarter Fourth quarter First quarter Second quarter Third quarter Fourth quarter First quarter 1 Sec p 2 for inventory valuation adjustment Not available Corporate profits after taxes Corporate profits before taxes Corporate tax liability Total Source Department of Commerce Dividend payments Undistributed profits GROSS PRIVATE DOMESTIC INVESTMENT The reduction of 5 billion seasonally adjusted annual rate in private investment during the first quarter of 1961 reflected sizable declines in each of the major sectors BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES 60 40 PROOUCERS1 DURABLE EQUIPMENT l i CHANGE IN BUSINESS INVENTORIES s EO J 1955 L J t 1956 I95T J 1958 l L 1959 I 1 I960 I 1961 COUHCIt OF ROMOMIC AOVttBg SOURCE DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE Billions of dollars Total gross private domestic investment Period Third quarter Fourth quarter 1960 First quarter Second quarter Third quarter Fourth quarter 1961 First quarter New construction Total Residential nonfarm Total Other J Producers durable equipment Seasonally adjusted annual rates 1 Revisions In series on new construction shown on p 17 have not yet been incorporated into these series a Other construction hi this series includes petroleum and natural gas well trilling wbicb are excluded from estimates on p 17 Change in business inventories Fixed investment Source Department ol Commerce Nonfarm Total t EXPENDITURES FOR NEW PLANT AND EQUIPMENT Businessmen plan to spend 34 6 billion on new plant and equipment in 1961 a decline of 3 percent from 1960 according to the January February survey BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES SO 20 MANUFACTURING I SEE NOTE 5 ON TABLE BELOW COUNgH OF ECONOMIC ADyiStia SOURCES SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE COMMISSION AND DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE Billions of dollars Manufacturing Period Total i Total i I First quarter Second quarter Third quarter Fourth quarter 1960 First quarterSecond quarter Third quarter Fourth quarter 1961 First quarter 3 Second quarter J sa Durable goods Railroads Seasonally adjusted annual rates Kxchidi floriculture oniinerchil nnd other Includes trade service finance communications and CMMiMnu llon Kstinmtfs liusod on anticipated capital expenditures as reported by business in l n f c Jiuumry and February 3961 Includes adjustments when necessary for jrvtriimllr luidcnclcs in anticipatory data 8 Nondurable goods Transportation Mining Other Public utilities Commercial and other as NOTE Quarterly anticipated data are rounded to nearest 5100 million beginning 1959 all other quarterly data are rounded to nearest 50 million Annual total is the sum of unadjusted expenditures it does not necessarily coincide with the average of seasonally adjusted figures These figures do not agree with the totals included in the gross nations product estimates of the Department of Commerce principally beeause the latter cover agricultural investment and also certain equipment and construction outlays charged to current expense Sources Securities and Exchange Commission and Department of Commerce EMPLOYMENT UNEMPLOYMENT AND WAGES STATUS OF THE LABOR FORCE Total employment increased by 200 000 in April Unemployment was reduced by approximately the usual seasonal change and the seasonally adjusted rate of unemployment declined slightly to 6 8 percent MILLIONS OF PERSONS 78 MILLIONS OF PERSONS PERCENT OF CIVILIAN LABOR FORCE PERCENT OF CIVILIAN LABOR FORCE UNEMPLOYMENT RATE SEASONALLY ADJUSTED r m I P V J t 1955 iJ 1 s u Tl I f rv t ji f P I ITT prf fP rj s f Period 1953 1S March April May July August September October November December 1901 January February March April J i COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS Civilian labor force Civilian employment Total Nonagricultural Civilian employment Unemployment Millions of persons G GO 7 Unadjusted GO G OS S S Seasonally adjusted totals may differ from sum of coinponents because totals and components have been seasonally adjusted separately j J 1 I YEARS OF AGE AND OVER SOURCE DEPARTMENT OF LABOR Total labor force including armed forces I Civilian labor force Total Agricultural Nonagricultural 14 years of age and over M 9 Seasonally adjusted 4 2 G G GO G GO 4 5 7 CO CO J f Unemployment Unemployment rate percent of civilian labor force Unad Seasonjusted ally adjusted Percent NOTE For definitions and coverage see Employment and Earnings Department of Labor Beginning January 1960 data include Alaska and Hawaii Source Department of Labor Q UNEMPLOYMENT INSURANCE PROGRAMS Total insured unemployment averaged 3 0 million in April compared to 2 1 million in April 1960 MILLIONS OF PERSONS MILLIONS OF PERSONS WEEKLY INSURED UNEMPLOYMENT STATE PROGRAMS FEB JUNE MAY MAR DEC SOURCE DEPARTMENT OF LABOR Period March April May June July August September October November December 1961 January February March April 2 Week ended 1961 April May N ot available i rt liniinary 10 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS State programs Insured unemployment as perInitial Exhaus cent of covered emploj ment tions claims Unad Seasonjusted ally adjusted Percent Weekly average thousands S G e s All programs Insured Total UD em benefits Insured Covered ploypaid unem milemploy ment ployment weekly lions of ment dolaverage lars Thousands CIO Benefits paid Total Average milweekly lions of check dollars dollars NOTE Data exclude Temporary Extended Unemployment Compensation program For definitions and coverage see 1960 Supplement to Economic Indicators Data for Alaska and Hawaii included for all periods Source Department of Labor NONAGRICULTURAL EMPLOYMENT Total payroll employment in nonagricultural establishments seasonally adjusted increased by 240 000 in April Increases occurred in all major industry divisions MILL IONS OF WA6E AND SALARY WORKERS 56 ALL NONAGRICULTURAL ESTABLISHMENTS 54 20 MANUFACTURING 1 8 T S S 50 MILL IONS OF WAGE AND SALARY WORKERS V TAJ S q IO t NONDURABLE GOODS INDUSTRIES K r I CONTRACT CONSTRUCTION WHOLESALE AND RETAIL TRADE ENLARGED SCALE ENLARGED SCALE v 2 5 v I960 f DURABLE GOODS INDUSTRIES v V v v r N p J I 1 I I 1 v r I960 SEASONALLY ADJUSTED DATA EXCLU DING ALASKA AMI HAWAII SOUR CE DEPARTMENT OF LABOR Period March April May June July August September October November December 1961 January February March 3 April COUNC IL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS Thousands of wage and salary workers Total Manufacturing private Nonmanufacturing private Total Total unadjusted including excluding Contract Alaska excluding Alaska Durable Nondura Total 2 construc Wholesale and Total and and retail goods ble goods Alaska and Hawaii Hawaii tion trade Hawaii S BO Seasonally adjusted G ff Includes all fui and part time wage and salary workers in nonagricultural establishments who worked during or received pay for any part of the pay period ending nearest the 15th of the month Excludes proprietors self employed persons domestic servants and personnel of the armed forces Total derived from this table not comparable with estimates of nonagricultural employment of the civilian labor force shown on p 9 which include proprietors self employed persons and domestic servants which count persons as employed when they 1958 Government Federal State local are not at work because of industrial disputes and which are based on an enumeration of population whereas the estimates in this table are based on reports from employing establishments 2 Includes mining transportation and public utilities finance insurance and real estate and service and miscellaneous not shown separately s Preliminary Source Department of Labor J1 WEEKLY HOURS OF WORK The average factory workweek seasonally adjusted continued to increase in April reaching 39 5 hours HOURS PER WEEK SEASONALLY ADJUSTED 46 DURABLE MANUFACTURING HOURS PER WEEK SEASONALLY ADJUSTED 46 NONDURABLE MANUFACTURING iS k I RETAIL TRADE fc rcrc X I9SS I SOURCE DEPARTMENT OF LABOR Average hours per week Manufacturing industries Period All COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS Non Building Durable durable construc Retail trade goods tion goods Hours per week Persons at work in nonagriculturai 2industries by hours worked per week Under 35 hours Part time for economic reasons Over Total Usually Usually hours hours fullparttime time 3 Millions of persons 14 years of age and over s Seasonally adjusted 1960 March April Mav June iTi J July August September October November December 1961 January February March 6 April 8 1 Data relate to production workers or nonsupcrvisory employees Differs from total nonagriculturai employment p 9 which includes persons with jobs but not at work for such reasons as vacation illness bad weather and industrial disputes Beginning January 1960 data include Alaska and Hawaii 3 Includes persons who worked part time because of slack work material shortages or repairs new job started or job terminated 12 U 5 Primarily includes persons who could find only part time work Not available Preliminary Average hours worked usually full time 24 0 usually part time 18 8 Source Department of Labor AVERAGE HOURLY AND WEEKLY EARNINGS SELECTED INDUSTRIES Average hourly earnings of production workers in manufacturing industries were 2 33 in April 5 cents higher than in April 1960 Average weekly earnings increased to higher than in April 1960 DOLLARS AVERAGE WEEKLY EARNINGS DURABLE GOODS INDUSTRIES AL L MANUFACTURING INDUSTRIES I 2 00 I960 SOURCE DEPARTMENT OF LABOR HH COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS For production workers or nonsupervisory employees Average hourly earnings current prices Period March April May June JulyAugust September October November December 1961 January February March 2 April Manufacturing industries Manufacturing industries BuildBuilding con Retail ing con Retail NonNonDurable durable structrade trade Durable durable strucAll All goods tion goods tion goods goods 1 48 y i Earnings in current prices divided by the consumer price index on a 1960 base 2 Preliminary Average weekly earnings current prices Average weekly earnings all manufacturing industries 1960 prices Not available Source Department of Labor 13 PRODUCTION AND BUSINESS ACTIVITY INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION The industrial production index seasonally adjusted increased 2 5 percent in April to the increase with durable manufactures accountins for the largest share INDEX O SEASONALLY ADJUSTED 130 TOTAL All major sectors contributed INDEX SEASONALLY ADJUSTED IOO I I960 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS SOURCE BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM Total industrial production Period I March April May June July August September October November December 1961 January February March April 1 Preliminary 14 S seasonally adjusted Industry Manufacturing Mining Utilities NonTotal Durable durable Market Final products ConTotal sumer Equipment goods S S Source Board of Governors oi the Federal Reserve System Materials S PRODUCTION OF SELECTED MANUFACTURES In April output of most durable manufactures seasonally adjusted increased significantly while nondurables were up slightly from their March levels INDEX SEASONALLY ADJUSTED INDEX SEASONALLY ADJUSTED reo IOO 1958 i I SOURCE BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM i 196 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS seasonally adjusted Durable manufactures Period Primary metals I960 1 I960 March April Mav July August September October November December 1961 January February March l Anril 1 Preliminary Not available Nondurable manufactures FabriTranspor Lumber Textiles Machin tation and cated apparel metal ery equipprodand products ucts ment leather S r Paper and printing S 1 I Chemicals Foods petrobeverleum and ages and rubber tobacco i o Source Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System 15 WEEKLY INDICATORS OF PRODUCTION Among the weekly indicators of production output of steel cars and trucks rose sharply in April MILLIONS OF SHORT TONS MILLIONS OF TONS DAILY AVERAGE SOURCES AMERICA IRON AND STEEL INSTITUTE DEPARTMENT OF THE INTERIOR EDISON ELECTRIC INSTITUTE AND WARD S AUTOMOTIVE REPORTS COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS Electric Bituminous Freight Paperboard Steel produced Cars and trucks power coal mined loaded produced Thousands Index distributed thousands thousands thousands assembled thousands of net millions of of short Total of cars of tons Cars Trucks tons 100 kilowatt hours tons Period Weekly average March April May June July August September October November December1961 January February March April 2 Week ended 1961 April May Baily average Preliminary 16 J S s Not charted Sources American Iron and Steel Institute Edison Electric Institute Depart ment of tbe Interior Association of American Railroads National Paperboard Association and Ward s Automotive Reports NEW CONSTRUCTION Total expenditures for new construction seasonally adjusted increased in April public construction rose Outlays for both private and BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS TOTAL NEW CONSTRUCTION I I I I I I 1 I I I I I I SEE NOTE 4 IN TABLE BELOW SOURCE DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS Private Total new construction expenditures Period new series Total Residential Commercial and nonfarm industrial Billions of dollars Other Construction contracts i CommerFederal Total value cial and in index dustrial State and floor space local 2 100 millions of square feet Seasonally adjusted Seasonally adjusted annual rales 1960 March April May June July August September October NovemberDecember 1961 January February March April i I S Compiled by F V Dodge Corporation Omits small contracts and covers rural areas less fully than urban 2 Relates to 48 States Relates to 48 States beginning I960 and to 37 Eastern States prior to 195C Seasonal adjustment by National Bureau of Economic Research 4 Series on new construction beginning January 1959 not comparable with prior i 1 C 8 i 7 C 7 i 7 i Seasonally adjusted annual rates data In addition to major differences between old and new series data for Alaska anil Hawaii are included beginning January 1959 B Preliminary Sources Department of Commerce and F W Dodge Corporation except as noted in i J HOUSING STARTS AND APPLICATIONS FOR FINANCING Private housins starts declined slishtly in April to an annual rate of 1 2 million seasonally adjusted of FHA applications and VA appraisal requests dropped MILLIONS OF UNITS ANNUAL RATE The number MILLIONS OF UNITS ANNUAL RATE SOURCES DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE FEDERAL HOUSING ADMINISTRATION FHA AND VETERANS ADMINISTRATION VA COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISES Thousands of units Period Total housing starts farm and nonfarm Total private Private and public March 93 3 April May 127 3 June July August 102 0 September October 110 4 November December 3 961 January 4 72 5 February 80 7 March April Total private and public Total Private Government programs VA FHA Old series New series Units represented by mortgage applications for new home construction Not R vailabie Bee Housing Starts C 20 11 Supplement Bureau of the Census May I M A for description Data for Alaska and Ha vaii included Private housing starts seasonally adjusted annual rates Nonfarm housing starts Proposed home construction Applica Requests tions for for VA Total FHA farm and Nonfarm nonfarm commit appraisals1 ments New series SS S Preliminary Sources Department of Commerce Federal Housing Administration FHA and Veterans Administration VA TRADE SALES AND INVENTORIES Total retail sales seasonally adjusted declined in April while department store sales improved somewhat BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS i r INDEX ISO TI 0r 120 Wholesale Ketail Sales i s Period Sales Inventories 2 I I SEASONALLY ADJUSTED r SOURCES DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE AND BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM Total Inventories NonDurable durable goods goods stores stores Total Department stores 2 NonDurable durable goods goods stores stores Billions of dollars seasonally adjusted February March April May June July August September October November December I9GI January 6 February March April Monthly average for year and total for month Book value end of period seasonally adjusted 3 Beginning January I960 data include Alaska and Hawaii End of period except annual data which are monthly averages G i J COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS Sales l Inventories Index seasonally adjusted c Based on retail value Preliminary Sources Department of Commerce and Board of Governors of tbe Federal Reserve System 19 MANUFACTURERS SALES INVENTORIES AND NEW ORDERS Manufacturers sales and new orders seasonally adjusted rose again in March Further liquidation of inventories occurred among durable goods firms Durable goods sales and new orders rose again in April according to preliminary estimates BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS MANUFACTURERS INVENTORIES 10 E0 MANUFACTURERS NEW ORDERS NONDURABLE GOODS DURABLE GOODS SEASONALLY ADJUSTED SOURCE DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS Billions of dollars seasonally adjusted Manufacturers sales l Period Total March April May June July August September October November December 1961 January 3 February March 3 April 3 4 NonDurable durable goods goods Monthly average for year and total or month Book value end of period seasonally adjusted 1 rcliiiifnary Manufacturers inventories 2 Total NonDurable durable goods goods Manufacturers new orders Total Not charted Source Department o Commerce Durable goods NonMachinery durable goods and Total equipment MERCHANDISE EXPORTS AND IMPORTS The merchandise trade surplus seasonally adjusted dropped from 642 million in February to 560 million in March Exports were down 4 percent while imports were up fractionally From levels of a month earlier BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 2 5 I 1 2 5 SEASONALLY ADJUSTED MERCHANDISE EXPORTS EXCLUDING MUTUAL SECURITY PROGRAM SHIPMENTS I B SOURCES DEPARTMENT OP COMMERCE AND DEPARTMENT OF DEFENSE Period Millions of dollars Merchandise exports excluding Merchandise imports Mutual Security Program shipments Total includGeneral 2imDomestic exports Imports for consumption 3 ing reexports 1 ports Indus Finished Indus Finished Season Unad Total Food trial manu Season Unad Total Food trial manually ad justed ally adstuffs matefacstuffs matefacjusted rials tures justed justed rials tures Monthly average February 1 584 March 1 496 April 1 6S1 May June S6 July 1 736 August 1 622 September 1 610 October November 1 677 December January 1 649 February 1 764 March Unadjusted Total exports less Department of Defense shipments of grant aid military tupplies and equipment under the Mutual Security Program Imports tor immediate consumption plus entries into bonded warehouses COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS S S S S M 1 1S J Unadjusted J Imports for immediate consumption plus withdrawals for consumption from bonded warehouses Sources Department of Commerce and Department of Defense 21 U S BALANCE OF PAYMENTS The over all balance of payments deficit fell sharply by 4 7 billion seasonally adjusted annual rate in the first quarter primarily because of a decline of 3 1 billion in the deficit on U S grants and net capital account However 1 8 billion of this decline was due to the nonrecurrence of special payments made in the fourth quarter BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 40 U S PAYMENTS U S RECEIPTS IMPORTS OF 600DS j AND SERVICES I 10 SO 10 EXCESS OF RECEIPTS EXCESS OF PAYMENTS I I95S SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES INCLUDES UNRECORDED TRANSACTIONS SOURdEf DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS Millions of dollars U S receipts recorded Period Exports Foreign Imports of longof goods term goods and capital and services services net Third quarter Fourth quarter 1960 First quarter Second quarter Third quarter Fourth quarter 10 11 First quarter Includes Increase in foreign Unregold and corded recorded U S grants and capital net transacliquid tions dollar U S Private capital errors and assets G o vernomissions through mcnt Total net transacgrants er receipts receipts and tions with Total Direct the U S capital U S payments recorded Seasonally adjusted annual rates remittances and pensions not shown separately Kxchides 1 375 million increase In U S sub ibscription to International Moner y IMIH I I I KS Hum Inclmlc s l K KiihKcrlption to International Development Association of 3V I n i i l l i o i i 2 million at annual rate 22 Balance on recorded transactions net pay s Includes single direct investment transaction of 370 million 1 480 milJUon at6annual rate Preliminary NOTE Data exclude goods and services transferred under military grants Source Department of Commerce PRICES CONSUMER PRICES The consumer price index at in March was unchanged from February most commodities was offset by a continued rise in services A drop in prices for INDEX WOEX SERVICES ISO 130 ALL ITEMS no IEO V COMMODITIES LESS FOOD i ii I I Ii 1956 I I I 1 II I 1I 1 t 1961 I960 SOURCE DEPARTMENT OF LABOR COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS Commodities A11 items Period i February March April May June July August September OctoberNovember December 1961 January February March Source Department of Labor All commodities Services Commodities less food Food All 101 3 lOR Durable HO All Nonservices durable na U Rent Services less rent WHOLESALE PRICES Wholesale prices were 0 3 percent lower in April than in March ucts contributed to the decline Prices of all major groups particularly farm prod INDEX INDEX COMMODITIES OTHER THAN FARM PRODUCTS AND FOODS INDUSTRIALS SOURCE DEPARTMENT OF LABOR Period I March April May June July August September October November December 1 961 January February March April 3 Week ended 19C1 May 2 9 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISEB All commodities Commodities other than farm products and foods industrials Indus Indus Produc Consumer finProcFarm ished goods extrial inAll intrial prodessed cluding food dustricrude termedi er finucts foods ished DurNonals1 mate ate ma goods 2 durable terials able rials a isa i nas a na a ioa sae Covcrnpc of the subgroups does not correspond exactly to coverage of this index Kiclmlcs intermediate materials for food manufacturing and manufactured nnlinnl feeds includes in rart grain products for further processing 24 S w Weekly series based on smaller sample than monthly series Not available Source Department of Labor PRICES RECEIVED AND PAID BY FARMERS Declines in prices received for most livestock and livestock products reduced the index of prices for all products by 4 points in the month ended April 1 5 The parity ratio dropped 1 point INDEX INDEX PRICES PAID INTEREST TAXES AND WAGE RATES 3OO ZOO ZOO RATIO V RATIO PARITY RATIO v 76 i i Ii I960 RATIO OF INDEX OF PRICES RECEIVED TO INDEX OF PRICES PAID INTEREST TAXES AND WAGE RATES SOURCE DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE 1961 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISEK Prices paid by farmers All items interest ProducLivestock taxes and Family tion and living wage rates items products items parity index Index Prices received by farmers Period All farm products r r r March 15 April 15 May 15 June 15 July 15 August 15 September 15 October 15 November 15 December January 15 February 15 March 15 April 15 Crops J Percentage ratio of index of prices received by farmers to index of prices paid interest taxes and wage rates 22 Parity ratio SO Source Department of Agriculture 25 MONEY CREDIT AND SECURITY MARKETS MONEY SUPPLY The money supply rose more than seasonally in April BILLIONS OF DOLLARS ISO AVERAGES OF DAILY FIGURES SEASONALLY ADJUSTED BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 150 TOTAL MONEY SUPPLY 140 f 130 ISO izo DEMAND DEPOSITS AT ALLiCOMMERCIAL BAJJKS no so SOURCE BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM Period December December DecemberDecember December December December December March April May June July August September October November December 1 00 January February Mnrcli April 3 Fir si half Averages of daily figures billions of dollars Money supply Seasonally adjusted Unadjusted Currency Demand Currency Demand Total outside deposits Total outside deposits 12 1 2 banks banks Sccoiu l i a l f 3 i s it nil eonmipreial bonks member and nonmember i i 7 for k finifion of member banks 26 196 cOUNql OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS Deposits at member2 banks unadjusted U S Demand Time Government NOTE See note p 27 Source Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System BANK LOANS INVESTMENTS DEBITS AND RESERVES Commercial bank loans rose 600 million in April compared to 1 6 billion in April 1960 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS ISO 100 O END OF MONTH SOURCE BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS All commercial banks March April May June July August SeptemberOctober November December 1961 January February March 5 April 5 Investments Total loans and investments End of period Loans U S Government securities Other securities Billions of dollars Weekly reporting member banks Business loans Bank All member banks 1 debits outside New York Reserves 4 BorrowCity 343 ings at centers Federal seasonally adjusted Required Excess Reserve Banks annual rates 3 Millions of dollars S Preliminary Member banks are all national banks and those State banks which have taken membership in the Federal Reserve System NOTE Between January and August 1959 series for all commercial banks Commercial and industrial loans and prior to 1956 agricultural loans Series revised beginning January 1952 October 1955 July 1958 July 1959 and April 1961 expanded to include data for all banks in Alaska and Hawaii Data for all mem1 ber banks include Alaska and Hawaii for aU periods Debits during period to demand deposit accounts except interbank and U S Government Prior to 1955 relates to 344 centers outside New York City Source Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System Averages of daily figures Annual data are for December 27 CONSUMER CREDIT In March consumer credit outstanding declined about 200 million compared to a rise of about 120 million in March 1960 However instalment extensions seasonally adjusted exceeded repayments slightly BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS TOTAL CREDIT OUTSTANDING i i i i i i i 1960 I 1961 n i l i i i t I i ii i i I i i i i I i i i i i I i t i i i I i i i i i I i i i i i I i i i i i I i i t i i I i 1955 I 1956 I SOURCE BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM February March April May June July August September October November December 1001 himmry February March 1 A l I n r l u i l o s oilier a m i jK n nmil loans noi iin sniHiT rrnlll u s cmcil hy h r Kenix pti 1 iiM vl of single pn 28 COUNOl OP ECONOMIC ADV1SR Millions of dollars Consumer credit outstanding end of period unadjusted Instalment NonAutomoTotal instalTotal bile 2 ment 3 paper Period ff onsumer Roods paper repair and modernization loans Mown separately ended for the purpose of purchasing automobiles and rhased merit loans charge accounts and service credit Consumer instalment credit extended and repaid seasonally adjusted Total i Automobile paper 2 Extended Repaid Extended Repaid NOTE Data for Alaska and Hawaii included beginning January and August 1959 respectively Source Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System BOND YIELDS AND INTEREST RATES The rate on 3 month Treasury bills declined somewhat in April Most bond yields averaged slightly higher in April than March Yields on U S Government long term and municipal bonds declined in early May PERCENT PER ANNUM PERCENT PER ANNUM SOURCES SEE TABLE BELOW COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS Percent per annum U fc Government security yields 3 month Taxable Treasury bonds 2 bills I OS High grade municipal bonds Standard Poor s Period I960 March April May June July August September October November December 1961 January February March April Week ended 1961 April May Kate on new issues within period Series includes April 1953 to date bonds due or callable 10 years and after April 1952 Mareh 1953 bonds due or callable after 12 years October 1911 March 1952 bonds due or callable after 15 years 3 Weekly data are Wednesday figures Corporate bonds Moody s Prime commercial paper 4 6 months Aaa 2 90 a oe Baa Not charted Sources Treasury Department Board of Governors of the Federal Keserve System Standard Poor s Corporation and Moody s Investors Service r 29 STOCK PRICES Stock prices increased again in April and early May INDEX 1987 S9 IOO INDEX 95T S9 IOO 180 ISO I DO SOURCE SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE COMMISSION Composite index Period Weekly average March April May June July August September October November December 1961 January February March April Week ended J April May Manufacturing NonDurable Total durable goods goods Utilities Trade finance and service tx lmira 800 common stocks 108 for durable goods manufacturing 85 for nonthnnbli j oocls nmnufiicturinfr 18 for transportation 34 for utilities 45 for trade IIIMIKV unit service nml JO for mining 30 Transportation NOTE Indexes are based on weekly closing prices Source Securities and Exchange Commission Mining FEDERAL FINANCE BUDGET RECEIPTS AND EXPENDITURES For the first 10 months of the current fiscal year there was a budget deficit of 6 0 billion year the deficit was 3 6 billion BILLIONS OF DOLLARS For the same period lasl BILLIONS OF DOLLARS NET BUDGET EXPENDITURES NET BUDGET RECEIPTS I BUDGET SURPLUS OR DEFICIT ENLARGED SCALE I FISCAL Y E A R S ESTIMATE SOURCES TREASURY DEPARTMENT AND BUREAU OF THE BUDGET Period Fiscal Fiscal Fiscal Fiscal Fiscal Fiscal Fiscal I960 year 1956 year 1957 year 1958 year year 1960 year year March April May t J June July August 8 September October 6 6 November December G 1961 January 66 February March 6 April8 Cumulative totals first 10 months 6 Fiscal year 1960 Fiscal year 1961 1 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS Billions of dollars Net budget expenditures Net Major national security 1 budget Department Total receipts of Defense Total military SO Includes military activities of the Department of Defense military functions and the military assistance portion of the mutual security program Atomic Energy Commission stockpiling and defense production expansion 1 Military functions and military assistance 3 Includes guaranteed securities held outside the Treasury Not all of total shown is subject to statutory debt limitation Budget surplus or deficit Public debt end of3 period a g Estimate revised Msrch 1961 B Not available G Preliminary NOTE Total budget receipts and expenditures have been adjusted to exclude certain intragovernmental transactions n t Sources Treasury Department and Bureau of the Budget CASH RECEIPTS FROM AND PAYMENTS TO THE PUBLIC In the first quarter of calendar 1961 cash receipts from the public exceeded cash payments by 1 4 billion seasonally adjusted basis however payments exceeded receipts by 2 3 billion BILLIONS OF DOLLARS SEASONALLY ADJUSTED 30 On a BILLIONS OF DOLLARS SEASONALLY ADJUSTED 30 EXCESS OF CASH RECEIPTS EXCESS OF CASH PAYMENTS CALENDAR YEARS SOURCES TREASURY DEPARTMENT AND BUREAU OF THE BUDGET COUNCIl Of ECONOMIC ADVISERS Billions of dollars Cash receipts from the public Period Fiscal year total Calendar year total I Estimate revised March 1961 Preliminary 32 Excess of re Cash receipts ceipts or from the payments public Quarterly total calendar years Third quarter Fourth quarter I960 First quarterSecond quarter Third quarter 2 2 Fourth quarter 1961 First quarter 2 Cash payments to the public Unadjusted Kxcess of roceipts or payments Cash payments o the public Seasonally adjusted Q o G G Sources Treasury Department and Bureau of the Budget For sale by the Superintendent of Documents U S Government Printing Office Washington 25 D C Price 20 cents per copy 2 00 per year 2 75 foreign U S GOVERNMENT PRINTING O F F I C E ISB i 1 r i r

Gross National Product or Expenditure

DATE: May 1961

PART OF:

Economic Indicators : May 1961

AUTHOR:

Council of Economic Advisers (U.S.)

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Council of Economic Advisers (U.S.) , United States. Congress. Joint Committee on the Economic Report, 1946-1956 and United States. Congress. Joint Economic Committee, 1956-. "Gross National Product or Expenditure," in Council of Economic Advisers (U.S.) , United States. Congress. Joint Committee on the Economic Report, 1946-1956 and United States. Congress. Joint Economic Committee, 1956-. "May 1961," Economic Indicators (May 1961) : 5-5. https://fraser.stlouisfed.org/title/1/item/457/toc/134380 , accessed on December 8, 2019.

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Economic Data