Bond Yields and Interest Rates

Name: Bond Yields and Interest Rates
Creator: FRASER
Keywords: Economic Data, Economic indicators, Economic conditions, United States

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The following is plain-text output generated by Optical Character Recognition. 86th Congress 2d Session Economic Indicators OCTOBER 1960 Prepared for the Joint Economic Committee by the Council of Economic Advisers UNITEDr GOVERNMENT HRBNTIN 0 OFFICE WASHINGTON I960 JOINT ECONOMIC COMMITTEE Created pursuant to Sec 5 a of Public Law 304 79th Cong PAUL H DOUGLAS Illinois Chairman WRIGHT PATMAN Texas Viet Chairman SENATE JOHN SPARKMAN Alabama J WILLIAM FULBRIGHT Arkansas JOSEPH C O MAHQNEY Wyoming JOHN R KENNEDY Massachusetts PRESCOTT BUSH Connecticut JOHN MARSHALL BUTLER Maryland JACOB K JAVTIS New York HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES RICHARD BOLLING Missouri HALE BOGGS Louisiana HENRY S REUSS WiscOTisin Y FRANK M COFFER Wfle THOMAS B CURTIS Missouri CLARENCE E KILBURN New York WILLIAM B WIDNALL New Jersey JOHN W LEHMAN Clerk and Acting Executive Director COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS RAYMOND J SAULNIER Chairman KARL BRANDT HENRY C WALLICH PUBLIC LAW 120 81sr CONGRESS CHAPTER 237 Isr SESSION JOINT RESOLUTION S J Res 55 To print the monthly publication entitled Economic Indicators Resolved by the Senate and House of Representative of the United States of America in Congress assembled That the Joint Economic Committee be authorized to issue a monthly publication entitled Economic Indicators and that a sufficient quantity be printed to furnish one copy to each Member of Congress the Secretary and the Sergeant at Anns of the Senate the Clerk Sergeant at Arms and Doorkeeper of the House of Representatives two copies to the libraries of the Senate and House and the Congressional Library seven hundred copies to the Joint Economic Committee and the required number of copies to the Superintendent of Documents for distribution to depository libraries and that the Superintendent of Documents be authorized to have copies printed for sale to the public Approved June Charts drawn by Graphics Unit Office of the Secretary Department of Commerce ii Contents TOTAL OUTPUT INCOME AND SPENDING The Nation s Income Expenditure and Saving Gross National Product or Expenditure National Income Sources of Personal Income Disposition of Personal Income Per Capita Disposable Income Farm Income Corporate Profits Gross Private Domestic Investment Expenditures for New Plant and Equipment EMPLOYMENT UNEMPLOYMENT AND WAGES Status of the Labor Force Nonagricultural Employment Average Weekly Hours Selected Industries Average Hourly Earnings Selected Industries Average Weekly Earnings Selected Industries Industrial Production Production of Selected Manufactures Weekly Indicators of Production New Construction Housing Starts and Applications for Financing Sales and Inventories Manufacturing and Trade Merchandise Exports and Imports PRODUCTION AND BUSINESS ACTIVITY PRICES Consumer Prices Wholesale Prices Prices Received and Paid by Farmers CURRENCY CREDIT AND SECURITY MARKETS Currency and Deposits Bank Loans Investments and Reserves Consumer Credit Bond Yields and Interest Rates Stock Prices FEDERAL FINANCE Budget Receipts and Expenditures Cash Receipts from and Payments to the Public NOTE Detail in tbcsc tables will oot necessarily add to totals because of rounding iii TOTAL OUTPUT INCOME AND SPENDING THE NATION S INCOME EXPENDITURE AND SAVING Preliminary estimates indicate that total income and total expenditures in the third quarter of 1960 were slightly below the second quarter level thoush 21 6 billion seasonally adjusted annual rate above the third quarter of 1959 Billions of dollars Third quarter Year Economic group Second quarter Third quarter Excess Excess Excess Excess of reof reof reof reExExExExRe pend ceipts Re pend ceipts Re pend ceipts Re pend ceipts ceipts itures or ex ceipts itures or ex ceipts itures or ex ceipts itures or ex i pendpendpendpenditures itures itures itures Seasonally adjusted annual rates Consumers Disposable personal income 337 3 Personal consumption ex P isa o Purchases of goods Less Transfers interest 9a i 9a Surplus or deficit on income and product account GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT i Preliminary estimates by Council of Economic Advisers i Not available Source Department of Commerce except as noted J Total government expendi Statistical discrepancy Less Transfers Interest P L2 Excess of transfers or of net exports L6 Net exports of goods and Government Federal State and local Tax and nontax receipts or Excess of investment t International Foreign net transfers by Personal net saving H Business Gross retained earningsGross private domestic in C a NOTE For explanation and use of this arrangement see Senrun lit rl No 1295 Joint Economic Report pp and Economic Report o Uti President January 1953 Appendix A 1 GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT OR EXPENDITURE Gross national product at an annual rate of 503 billion seasonally adjusted in the third quarter of 1960 was 2 0 billion lower than in the second quarter accordin5 to preliminary estimates Final purchases of goods and services total purchases excluding inventory change rose 3 3 billion in the third quarter following a rise of 9 8 billion in the second quarter BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS Sob O 00 COO I PRELIMINARY ESTIMATES BY COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS SOURCE DEPARTMENT OP COMMERCE I EXCEPT AS NOTED Period Third quarter Fourth quarter 1959 First quarter Second quarter Third quarter Fourth quarter 1960 First quarter Second quarter Third quarter 1 Less Government sates These expenditures correspond closely with the major national security category In The Budget alike United State Government for the Fltcal year Ending June SO tKl shown on p 81 of Economic Indicators of ECONOMIC jbyaas IBithpns of dollars Persona letaJ Government purchases of goods and services Net Gross congross Total private exports Federal suinpnational gross State goods product national tion domestic of and Total and expend invest services Total National Other in 1959 product local defense ment itures prices L 2 3 8 25ai sao 13 6 ag eas sas S85 S S sao a S a sias Seasonally adjusted annual rates L S S 313 6 7R o L4 9a i S L2 5L t ao ao I Preliminary estimates by Council of Economic Advisers Source Department of Commerce except as noted NATIONAL INCOME Compensation of employees advanced by 2 2 billion seasonally adjusted annual rate in the third quarter interest also increased while other major components of noncorporate income showed little or ne change BILLIONS OF DOLLARS Net BILLIONS Of DOLLARS SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES TOTAL NATIONAL INCOME COMPENSATION OF EMPLOYEES eoo eoo CORPORATE PROFITS AND INVENTORY VALUATION ADJUSTMENT PROPRIETORS AND RENTAL INCOME 100 NET INTEREST T I PRELIMINARY ESTIMATES BY COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS SOURCE DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE EXCEPT AS NOTED COUNCIL Of KOMOMK MVBHB Billions of dollars Period Total national income Compensation of em 1 ployees Proprietors income Business and professional Farm Rental income of persons as Net interest a Corporate profits and inventory valuation adjustment Total za L Profits Inventory before valuation taxes adjustment sas n Seasonally adjusted annual rates 1958 Third quarter Fourth quarter 1959 First quarter Second quarter Third quarter Fourth quarter First quarter Second quarter Third quarter 3 1Includes 370 8 SSL employer contributions far social Insurance See also p 4 Preliminary estimates by Council of Economic Advisers Not available ia Source Department of Commerce except as noted a s C SOURCES OF PERSONAL INCOME Personal income rose 200 million seasonally adjusted annual rate in September to 408 4 billion although there was a declfne in wage and salary disbursements This decline was more than offset by increases jn personal interest income ana transfer payments BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 400 TOTAL PERSONAL INCOME 350 3OO 250 ZOO eoo ROFESSIONAL AND RENTAL INCOME I960 COUjCIl Of iCONOMC f V 3EKS SOURCE DEMftTMENT OF COMHERCC Total personal income Period L August September October November December 1960 January February March April May June July August September Billions of dollars Labor income Proprietors income Less Per wage and Rental sonal consalary disincome Divi Personal Transfer tributions Business payinterest of bursements and pro persons dends income ments for social and other 1 Farm insurfessional labor income ance Seasonally adjusted annual rates Compensation of employees see p 3 excluding employer contributions or social insurance and the excess of wage accruals over disbursements Personal Income exclusive of net income of unincorporated farm enterprises farm wages agricultural net interest and net dividends paid by agricultural corporations Preliminary estimates Source Department of Commerce Nonagricultural personal income DISPOSITION OF PERSONAL INCOME Disposable personal income rose 3 4 billion seasonally adjusted annual rate between the second and third quarters of 1960 Total consumption expenditures declined slightly while personal saving rose by nearly 4 billion BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 4OO 1 400 SEASONALLYAOJUSTEO ANNUAL RATES DISPOSABLE PERSONAL INCOME 30O 300 TOTAL PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES 200 EXPENDITURES FOR NONDURABLE GOODS f 100 EXPENDITURES FOR SERVICES EXPENDITURES FOR DURABLE GOODS I960 PRELIMINARY ESTIMATES BT COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS SOURCE DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE EXCEPT AS NOTED Period Equals Personal Less Disposincome Personal able 1 taxes personal income 2oas Third rjiifl rt er Fourth quarter 1959 First quarter Second quarter Third quarter Fourth quarter 1960 First quarter Second quarter Third quarter Includes such items as fines and penalties Preliminary estimates by Council of Economic Advisers ia 7 22a CDUHCa Of ECOMOMtt ADVSiltS Less Personal consumption expenditures Total Durable Nongoods durable Services Billions of dollars a Z sao Seasonally adjusted annual Saving Equals as percent Personal of dissaving posable income goods L as ia9 rates Source Department of Commerce except as noted PER CAPITA DISPOSABLE INCOME Per capita disposable income seasonally adjusted measured in both current and constant prices increased slightly in the third quarter of DOLLARS DOLLARS Z EOO SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES Z OOO PER CAPITA DISPOSABLE PERSONAL INCOME IN 1999 PRICES IJ60O 1 400 I tOO I960 VsEt FOOTNOTE E ON TABLE BELOW SOURCES DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE AND COUNCIL or ECONOMIC AOVISEIIS CtMMOl 0 KOMOMC MMSBtf Total disposable personal Per capita disposable perincome billions of dollars 1 sonal income dollars Period SO Current prices prices soa s a 3 29 S R4 32L4 337 3 Current prices prices Population thousands i Seasonally adjusted annual rates 1958 Third quarter Fourth quarter 1959 First quarter Second quarter Third quarter Fourth quarter 1960 First quarter Second quarter Third quarter iacome Jess taxes Dollar estimates in current prices divided by tbe Implicit deflator or personal consmnptlon expenditures on a 1959 base Population of the united States excluding Alaska and Hawaii tnctades armed forces abroad Annual data as of July 1 quarterly data centered in tbe middle of tbe period interpolated from monthly figures a L ao Preliminary estimates Sources Department of Commerce and Council of Econom c Advisera FARM INCOME Both gross farm income and farm production expenses were lower in Hie third quarter of 1960 than in the second quarter Net farm income rose slightly BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES 40 4O TT n REALIZED GROSS FARM INCOME O NET FARM INCOME INCL NET CHANGE IN INVENTORIES IO 1 O t I9S i i t OME OF FARM OPERATORS FROM FARMING SOU RCEl DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE Period Third quarter Fourth quarter 1959 First quarter Second quarter Third quarter Fourth quarter 1960 First quarter Second quarter Third quarter Realized gross farm income sa i i i I960 0 cnUNdl OF tCONOMIC AOVBOS Farm operators income Net income s Farm proExcluding Including duction net change net change expenses in invenin inventories tories Billions of dollars Net income per farm including net change in inventories Current 1959 prices prices Dollars iao ia L Seasonally adjusted annual rates ia i Cash receipts from farm marketings value of larm products consumed in farm households eross rental value of farm dwellings and Government payments Realized gross farm Income less farm production expenses Excludes arm wages paid to workers living on farms and any income to farm people from nonfarm sources which in 1959 amounted to 1 8 billion and 6 8 billion respectively to 1 fm5r3 f Number of farms millions Dollar estimates In current prices divided by the Index of prices oaid bv farmers for items used in family living on a 1B59 base The number of farms is held constant wttnln a given year Preliminary estimates Source Department of Airicolture CORPORATE PROFITS Corporate profits before taxes in the second quarter of 1960 are estimated to have been 45 7 b i li6ri seqsdnally adjusted annual rate about 6 percent below their first quarter level BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES 60 PROFITS BEFORE TAXES ZO I960 i HO ALLOWANCE FOR INVENTORY VALUATION ADJUSTMENT SOUfifi OeWWYWENY OF COMMERCE council C ECONOMIC ADVH3B Bilhons of dollars Corporate profits before taxes Feriod Corporate profits after taxes Total Corporate tax liability ia i Dividend payments Undistributed profits as Seasonally adjusted annual rates 1958 Third quarter Fourth quarter 1959 First quarter Second quarter Third quarter Fourth quarter 1960 First quarter Second quarter Third quarter i 1Not J available Preliminary estimate by Council of Economic Advisers NOTE Bee p 3 for profits before taxes and after inventory valuation adjustment C Source Department of Commerce except as noted a GROSS PRIVATE DOMESTIC INVESTMENT A cessation of inventory accumulation and a small decline in residential construction expenditures accounted for the third quarter decline in gross private domestic investment Other major categories of investment expenditures increased BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS GROSS PRIVATE DOMESTIC INVESTMENT I PRELIMINARY ESTIU1TES BT COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS SOURCE OEMBTIIEMT OF COMMERCE EXCEPT AS NOTED Billions of dollars Total gross private domestic investment Period i sao Third quarter Fourth Quarter 1959 First quarter Second quarter Third quarter Fourth quarter 1960 First quarter Second quarter Third quarter Fixed investment Total New construction J Producers durable ResidenTotal equipOther tial ment nonfarm ia las las ias R7 16 2 2ai Seasonally adjusted annual rates Other construction in this series includes petroleum and natural gas well drilling which are excluded from estimates on p 19 Preliminary estimates by Council of Economic Advisers Change in business inventories Total ai Nonfarm I f 2 0 o e ft 4 a s o a Source Department of Commerce except as noted 9 EXPENDITURES FOR NEW The July August survey of business expenditures on plant and equipment indicates a moderate rise in planned expenditures in third quarter followed by a leveling off in fourth quarter Current anticipations for 1960 are about 2 billion lower than reported in the April May survey OH TMLC BELOW meg TO E M8g ootnnsstoHi oepAHTUCMT Biffiofls of dollars Manufacturing Period I Total M i i Third quarter Fourth quarter 1969 First quarter Second quarter Third quarter Fourth quarter First quarter Second quarter Third quarter Fourth miarter1 2ft sa Tptal Durable Nonduragoods ble goods Railroads Other tt i a 88 lass Commercial and other Public utilities L SI L y ss Mining 7 49 IftSS li i L Seasonally adjusted annual rates 1 Excludes agriculture Commercial and other Includes trade service finance communications and construction Estimates based on anticipated capital expenditures as reported by business In late July and August I960 Includes adjustments when necessary for systematic tendencies In anticipatory date 10 Transportation a LOO i NOTE Quarterly anticipated data are rounded to nearest 100 minion beginning 1969 all other quarterly data rounded to nearest 50 million Annual total Is the sum of unadjusted expenditures It does not necessarily coincide with the average of seasonally adjusted figures These figures do not agree with the totals included In thn gross national product estimates of the Department of Commerce principally because the latter cover agricultural investment and also certain equipment and construction outlays charged to current expense Sources Securities and Exchange Commission and Department of Commerce EMPLOYMENT UNEMPLOYMENT AND WAGES STATUS OF THJ6 LABOR FORCE v Unemployment declined more than seasonally in September and tke adjusted rate of unemployment dropped to 5 7 percent Total employment was 500 000 lower than in August as young people left summer jobs to return o school but was 1 4 million higher than in September MILLIONS Of PERSONS MILLIONS OF PERSONSV 60 6O TOTAL LABOR FORCE 70 CIVILIAN LABOR FORCE TO T P SB TOTAL EMPLOYMENT s 5S NONAGRICULTURAL EMPLQYMeNT AGRICULTURAL EMPLOYMENT UNEMPLOYMEnT L ef ECONOMIC A Total Civilian employment l Unemploynaent Insured unemployment labor State pro of ol Maa All proforce in Civilian labor Agricul N onagri Number labor force grams grams as cluding Total force tural cultural armed Unad Seas thousaads of covered forces justed 4j of jpersons employment Thousands of persons 14 years of age and over Period New definilicms I V 14 YEARS OF W SOURCE I August September October November December 1960 January February March April Maj June July August September i708 65 Oil J S SS Sec Employment mi Earning Department of Labor or definitions methods of 1 esttaatloD periods to which data pertain etc Weekly averages Bwfn tug January 1958 includes Alaska and Hawaii Includes program lor Federal employees or 195J June 195a B B S S as Preliminary estimate NOT Beginning January 1060 labor fon data Includa Alaska lod HsvraK Sources Department or Labor and Council ol Economic Advisers PayroHemployment in nonagricultural establishments seasonally adjusted declined slightly in Se pt mlwtt MUiUONSCF WABE ANCILLARY WORKERS1 JABE ihp SALAqy WOflKERS WOBK ALL NONAGRICULTURAL ESTABLISHMENTS MANUFACTURING M 8 SB ie so a 1 DURABLE 60ODS INDUSTRIES NOKDUHABI E GOODS I9ST I98T I9S8 I2 Q 3 8 CONTRACT CONSTRUCTION WHOtESALC ANO RETAIL ENLARGED SCALE t tui 10 3 o o 1 8 Kj WST I 195 k WIUWUI cquMn o eoyoM MXUBBB jOUHBg CtMBTMEUT Of L OH T l unad Period wf Toiial including ecfdHdixig 4l aad A3jU9fc ZlC lifawaB Hawaii m 60 Q August September October November December 1960 January February March April May June July August September en teg eo B4S SI ES BS 66 BS 793 BS res 58 078 BS 060 5 in ffe S7 BS SO9 68 9SS BS DBS BS CDiousands of wage and salary workers M Manufacturing Private nonmauuf aoturing Total Govern excluding meat Alaska Contract Wholesale Federal Durable iNondura Total qwkuc and retail State Total and goods ble goods Hawaii trade tipa local IP JO Oli I 9fl i wt J S6 8tl 7 2 767 Seasonally adjusted 9 094 a U S S Includes all fall and part ttm wage and salary workers in nonBKricultnral establishments who worked daring or received pay tor any part of tbe nay period ndloe nearest the Utb of tbe month Excludes proprietors self employed per OIM domeatic go nmta and pareamMl ol the limed forces Total dOTi V x btno this table not comparable with estlmstei of noougricultoral employment of tbe rfviUan tabor force jhown op p 11 which include proprietors self empkiyed pcnoiu wd domestic nen ants wbidi dxmt parwus omplgyed when tbey are not at work because of industrial difflhrtee and which BID based on an enumeration of population wlieroas tbe estimates ia this table are based on reports from employing establishments 1 Includes mmltif transportation and public utilities finance Insurance and real estate and service and miscellaneous hot stiowa separately FreUttunacy estimates Sonroe DeparttuoEt of Labor AVERAGE WEEKLY HOURS SEATED INDUSTRIES v The cjvsrage factory workweek was 39 6 hours in September compared wifli 39 8 hoprs in August HOURS PER WEEK HOURS PER WEEK NONDURABLE MANUFACTURING 42 40 3B 36 34 I RETAIL TRADE i i i 11 1 r 321 a nijj I9SS I960 SOURCE DEPARTMENT of JHotirs per weefct for production worker or ueasupervisory employeeaf Period 1950 19S August September October November December 1960 January February March April May June July 1 August 1 September i Pnsltolnary e Not available Vlanufacturini Durable goods Total i L Nondurable construction trade gSKKifi S S R fi 39 3 30 k i IS L ft R i 3 A J5R A O 1R R 1A R Q7 A 07 A 34 OA o 9 f A ffe O 1 a Q OR 0 7 A lfi 7 J Og ft OQ q Nora Data exclude Alaska and Hawaii Sonra Department of Labor V U AVERAGE HOURLY EARNINGS Average hourly earnings of production workers ifi rWafiufac ruring indusfrifS increased froWi S 28 hi Atigu fefl in September c T NONDURABLE MANUFACTURING 1 60 L raa SOURCE OCPARTHEKT OF LABOR Period For production workers or nonsupervisory employees Buildiag Retail trade AH manufacturing Durable good Nondurable goods construction manufacturing manufacturing Current 1959 Current 1959 Current 1959 Current Carrt it prices prices prices prices prices prices priceS prices prices prices SI U a a August September October a 23 November Deceixyb 5r January 2 29 February a March w 2 28 April 2 29 May June a 29 a 29 My August J September 1 Bantings a 19 a 21 a 19 a 21 a 25 a 28 a a 24 ffl a 01 a 10 2 20 a 28 ass ass a 37 a se a 38 2 43 a 46 a a45 a 44 a in current price divided by consumer price iadej on a 19S9 base Proliminsry egtimates Notavamble 14 a os a so 2 38 a 35 2 36 a a 45 a a 4i a 41 a4o P aoo a os 2 02 a os a 04 a os 2 05 a oe a os a os ao a S 1 96 a 6 3 10 a 22 a 23 a ae a 27 a 28 n a 01 aoo a 02 a 01 aOi a 03 ao4 a 03 a w a 31 a 48 aeo ass P a os a 34 B Data eiclutle Alasta and Hawaii Source Department of Labor Z aoo a a24 3 25 a 25 a a 32 0 SI LSI i 2 f l l a AVERAGE WEEKI y EAIWING f SEUSCTET I USWRIES Average weekly earninss of production workers in manufacturing induslries were 90 68 in September sltgnMy loi ei in Augwsf buf 1 21 filgher tlian in September PER WEEK DOLLARS PtH WEEK J30 so I NONDURABLE MANUFACTURING rest 1959 I960 RETAIL TRADE CURRENT PRICES 1 I M I I I CURRENT rnices I i 1 i i i I i i i S7 I eouMa t KOHawc wim SOURCt OCPJUmttNY OP MBOII For production workers or oo supervis ry employees Durable goods Nondurable goods SuilctiHg Retail trade manufacturing manufacturing tjonstrufetion Current Current Current 1959 Current Current prices prices prices prices1 prices prices noess prices prices prices All manufacturing Period I960 August September October November December 1960 January February March April May June July August September i a02 S ao9 sa a P a2l S r iDtf ta S a P110 dlfWfi4 by BOnsiuner priw hidej on a 19S9 base Preliminary estimates Not available I 3 fji t M loase P lift S na 95 ea 33 ea is na9d na so im RR SO P Data exclnae Alaska and Hawaii Source Department of Labor IS PRODUCTION AND BUSINESS ACTIVITY INlDUSTRIMi PRODUCTION Th indusrr al production index for September seasonally adjusted was slisrttly below revised August Jevell INDEX SEASONALLY ADJUSTED 130 INDEX SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ISO IOO HO 90 SO n at SOYCTNWB oF Ttfc FEOERHL RESERVE srita I960 oaiKaat KOHomie jgaafgi F seasonally Period i i S S w August September October Novecaber December Januarv Fsbraftry March Aprili MayJune July August J Septeinber I rfllmitmry 16 Total indttStrift production S lit 109 J09 HO 109 lib Industry Manufacturing Total NonDurable durable t Mining Utilities OS Market Final products ConTotal sumer Equipment goods lib ue Source Board of Governors or the Federal Reserve System ioa 101 W Materials J PRODUCTION O F DELECTED MANUFACTURES Praductipn of most manufasfures seasonally adjusted was lower in September ttKfcrjn August INDEX 1937 TOO SEASQNUiy OJUiTEO INDEX 1957m 100 SEASONALLY AOJU5TEO LJ I l l t I t 1J I99B I9S9 I960 SOUBCE BOARO OF oqvtnroBs OF THE rtotnnL RESERVE SYSTEM I960 COUHCT of tcOMUHUC BtBK Durable mapuf aotures Period Primary tnetals 195P 19JJ fi J S9 1959 August Septeniber j October November DnnBtther I960 January February March I April May June July August September Not available i Nondurable manufactures Fabric Transpor Lumber Textiles Paper Chemicals Foods petrobevercaled apparel and and Machin tation prodand ery equipprint leum and ages and metal tobacco leather ing rubber ucts products ment SO SB ilo SO lie no lid Source Board of Governors of the federal Reserve System WEEKLY INDICATORS OF PRODUCTION Auto assemblies were Substantially higher in September Acin in August reflecting rhe me5p jbfe output of new jnpdels Most other weekly indicators of production were slightly tc ow August levels IL UOHS or TOWS HU UONS OF SHORT TONS I DART IVERMO 12 SOUHCQl kHEftlCHII PBOUJlKO STCEL IMXTITUTE DEnUTTWCNT BT THt IMtXIIRM EDI30H ILETTKIC IHSTITUTE IMP WHUffl UTO OTtVt ffOBTJ Period L iectrie Bituminous Freight Paper board Cars and trucks bteel produced coal mined power produced loaded Thousands Index distributed thousands thousands thousands assembled thousands of net millions of of abort Total of tons Cars ttucks 100 tons kflowattrhoura tons of cara Weekly average August 359 September 385 October 1 694 November 2 713 December 2 720 I960 January February fill March April 2 279 May JuneJuly August 1 504 September Week ended September October S ill 6 A I ids a J L L L t MS fi Q S SS S sae Wetkly capacities net tons as of January I an e IMS and Dill storage Fnlimtwrr Not cUarted 18 ias Bootees American Iron and Stcol IiwtltuUi Edison Electric Institute Department at the Interior Association of American Railroads National I aperboftrd Association and Ward s Automotive Reports NEW Expenditures for both private and public construction seasonally adjusted rose during September BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BIU IONS OF OOUL4HS I i i 11 i t 11 i i L LI i i i I i i i i 11 ill i i 11 i i i i i I 1 1 1 i 1 1 i 1 1 i i 1 i i i ill i i j I 1 1 i i Ti i l 1 i i i iJ I S E WOTK IN TABLE 6CLOW CDONCX w eaaHQiK AMX Mum ocnirnicxT or COMMERCE Billions of dollars Total new construction Period new series August1 September October November December 1960 Janunry February March April May June July August September Private Residential Total private nonfarin ias ia Compiled by F W Dodge Corporation seasonally adjusted by the National Korean of Economic Research Hints small con tracts and covers rural areas lea fully than urban Series begins January 1956 The 37 Eastern States data are probably indicative oi the States trend for other periods Revised series beginning January 1956 not comparable with prior data Series discontinued beginning January 1958 iao 24 5 Seasonally Federal Construction contracts State a d 48 States J 37 Baatern Other local States 1LO i Z rO adjusted annual rates New series on new construction bezlantag January 1959 not comparable with prior data For detafls see Qmttru m AetSttty O 30 13 Bureau at the OenSQ3 August 2990 PrBuininafy estuu tes Sources Department of Commerce and F W Dodge Corporation except as noted 19 HOUSING STARTS AND APPLICATIONS FOR FINANCING jr Private housins starts in September were at an annual rate of 1 1 million seasonally adjusted compared wifh 1 3 million in August and 1 2 million in July The number of FHA applications and yA appraisal requests received was also below the August level but was higher than in Jufy MILLIONS OF UNITS ANNUAL RATE MILLIONS OF UNITS ANNUAL RATE SEASONALLY ADJUSTED PRIVATE NONFARM HOUSING STARTS W N c I OLDSEFIES V v SOURCES DEPARTMENTOF COMMERCE Ff Of ftU HOUSING ADMINI5TRAT ON FH I AND VETERANS ADMINISTRATION VA COUNC OF ECONOMIC A0WSHB Thousands of units Period TotiJ housing starts farm and nonfarm Total private Private and public a J June July August 142 4 September October November 106 5 December January 8a4 February 90 2 March 93 3 April 125 4 May 130 8 June 127 3 July August September Of faj Total private and public Private Total private Old series New series x ai for new home construction Not available See Houiinj Starts C20 11 Supplement Bureau of the Census May I860 for description Private housing starts seasonally adjusted annual rates Nonfarm housing starts Government programs FHA VA Applica Bequests Total tions for forVA farm and Nonfarm FHA appraisnonf arm commitals1 ments Proposed home construction New series 1 S S78 1 SB S US 1 SS9 1 S4 1 S jf SS SS4 1 S Sources Department of Commerce Federal Housing Administration FHA and Veterans Administration VA SALES AND INVENTORIES MANUFACTURING BND TRADE Business sales and inventories seasonally adjusted declined in August The sajes reduction was centered in mcjnufacturing while liquidation of retail inventories of 200 million accounted for the entire drop in stocks Mgnufeeturers new orders rose 600 million Preliminary estimates of retail sajes in September indicate a drop of aBout 1 percent BILL ONS OF DOLLARS SEASONALLY ADJUSTED BILL IONS OF DOLLARS SEASONALLY ADJUSTED RETAIL ENLARGED SCALE TOTAL AND MANUFACTURING TOTAL INVENTORIES r INVENTORIES ZO BO SALE5 i TOTAL SALES o t 1 1 1 1 II 1 1 III 1 1 1 IJ 1 J 1 1 I t 1 1 t I H INDE I SEASONALLY ADJUSTED MANUFACTURING INVENTORIES ISO DEPARTMENT STORES x v i 1 1 i 1 1 1t 1957 I 1 1 i t I I A V t t 1 1 i i i i t t I r i I 1 t i I I l IPO I1I 11 11 t 1 I t t i i i 1 i i i i i 1959 UANUFACTUH1NS RETAIL TRADE ARO WHOLESALE TRADE sou CE DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE ANO BOARD OF GOVERNORS Of THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM Period July August Sfipt ftTOhfiT October Novfirnhftr December 1960 January February March April May June July August 4 September 4 Manufacturing and trade Manufacturing Wholesale I9SO OUNCfi Of ECONOMIC ADVISERS Retail Department stores InvenInven New InvenInvenSales1 tories Sales tories2 orders1 Sales Inven Sales i tories Sales tories a tories 3 Index Billions of dollars seasonally adjusted seasonally adjusted 4a L is o 142 Monthly average for year and total for month Book value end of period seasonally adjusted Book value end of period except annual data which are monthly averages Preliminary estimates JLL pA 140 eo INVENTORIES MANUFACTURING SALES Sources Department of Commerce and Board of Governors of tbe Federal Reserve System 21 MERCHANDISE EXPORTS AND IMPORTS CommercioT exports were 21 percent higher and imports 2 percent higher in the first 8 monrhs of 1960 than in the corresppndin g period of 1959 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 2 S BIUJ QNS OF DOLLARS I960 caxat or KONOMK wvuas SOURCE DEPARTMENT OP COMMERCE Millions of dollars Merchandise exports Period 1950 monthly average 1951 monthly average 1952 monthly average 1953 monthly average 1954 monthly average monthly average monthly average 1957 monthly average monthly average monthly average 1959 July AuEUSt September October November December January February March April May June July August Total Grant aid shipments Figures Include only Department of Defense shipments of grant aid military supplies and equipment under the MtEtn l Security Program Shipments for the first fl months of the program f July December 1950 amounted to 282 million 22 Commercial exports Merchandise imports SSI Excess of exports over imports Excluding Total grant aid shipments no Sources Department of Commerce and Department of Defense PRICES CONSUMER PRICES Consumer prices in Ausust held steady at the July level as food price declines offset slight price advances in the other major categories INDEX I947 49 K O INDEX ISO ieo 100 I ounce oeMRTMCHT OF LABOR COUNC KSMOWC ADVBMS i July August RepteTJibeiv October No vember December 1960 January February IVTarnh April May JinVQ July Aueust 1 Housing All items Period Food lias 11 7 na Total Rent L Includes la addition to rent homeowner costs utilities bousefurnishlags etc Apparel 99 4 9a ioa Transportation i2ao ua Medical Personal care care isao ft I Reading Other goods and and recreation services nae Source Department of Labor 23 WHOLESALE PRICES Wholesale prices were unchanged in September as price advances for farm products and processed foods Were offset in the index by a small price decline for industrial commodities INDEX I9S SOURCE DEPARTMENT OP LABOR I960 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC AOVB8S All commodities Period August September October November December 1960 January February March April May June July August September Source Department of Labor lift Farm products Processed foods io ioa ioa i Other than farm products and foods industrial rj PRICES AND BAH BY FARMERS The index of prices received by farmers advanced in the month ended September 15 to abput its June July level The parity ratio rose one point to 80 INDEX IOO INDEX Stei PRICES PAID INTEREST TAXES AND WAGE RATES 275 ESO ees 2OO RATIO n PARITY RATIO M Mr iirom UM I r M HtMMUMI ttiwt T5 j ijj iiii 1 i l L 1 L llllMi lliJ1958 l l l l l l l f l RATIO OF INDEX OF PRICES RECEIVED TO INDEX OF PRICES PAID INTEREST TAXES AND WASE RATES SOURCE DEPARTMENT or AGRICULTURE L I L l l l l J 1 1 1 I960 COUNOt W ECONOMIC MJVKSa Prices received by farmers Period AM farm products August 15 September 15 October 15 November 15 December January 15 February 15 March 15 April 15 May 15 June 15 July 15 August 15 September Crops Percentage ratio of index of prices received by fanners to Index of prices paid Interest taxes and wage rates Prices paid by farmers All items interest Livestock taxes and Family Producand tion living wage rates products items items parity index Index Parity ratio Source Department of Agriculture 25 CURRENCY CREDIT AND SECURITY MARKETS CURRENCY AND DEPOSITS The total of demand deposits and currency rose in September but by less than the usual seasonal change BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS ESO zoo Njm 1960 SOURCE HOMO or OOVEBNOIIS OP THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM U S Total deposits Governand ment curderency posits J End of period August September October November December 1960 January February March April May June July August September as Billions of dollars Total excluding U 8 Government deposits Demand deposits and currency Time deTotal Demand Currency posits Total deposits outside adjusted banks as gas a ai as ioa U S Government deposits at Federal Beserve Bants and commercial and savings banks and U S Treasurer s time deposits open account Deposits IB commercial banks matna savings banks and Postal Savings System excludes interbank deposits Demand deposits otber than Interbank and U 8 Government less cash Items to process of collection 26 jCOUNQL OP ECONOMIC ADVBm Demand deposits and currency seasonally adjusted Demand Currency Total deposits outside adjusted banks HO 9 HO U o 1S9 1 1S9 B 1S S S8 B US lli S 109 S S 110 S 110 S S8 S es s 28 S 28 S 28 S S 88 S 88 S Preliminary estimates NOTE See Note p 27 Monthly data are for tbe last Wednesday of the month except the unadjusted data or December 1989 which are for tbe call date Source Board of Governors of tbe federal Reserve System BANK LOANS INVESTMENTS AND RESERVES Gomrticrcial bank loans rose 700 milJion in September compdi ed to an increase of 400 million in September 1959 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF OOLLAHS ZOO ISO SOURCE BOARD OF GOVERNORS or THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM Total loans and investments End of period August September October November I r emJ Rr I960 January February March April May June July 4 August September l Billions of dollars All commercial banks Investments U 8 GovLoans Other Total ernment securities securities sa sad sa sa o Member banks Include besides all national banks Cbose State banks that have taken membership In the Federal Reserve System Commercial and Industrial loans and prior to 1956 agricultural loans Series revised beginning January 1962 October 1965 July 1958 and July 1959 Averages of dally figures on balances and borrowings during the period Preliminary estimates OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS Weekly reporting member banks Business loans z J L All member banks 1 BorrowReserve balances1 ings at Federal Required Excess Reserve Banks ia ia 2 4 8 la i ia 2 4 9 la MOTS Between January and August 1959 these series except that for weekly reporting member banks were expanded to Include data for all banks in Alaska and Hawaii Source Board of Governors of the Federal Beserve System 27 CONSUMER CREDIT Consumer credit outstanding rose by 275 million in August compared to an increase of about 800 million in August 1959 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 60 END OF MONTH TOTAL CREDIT OUTSTANDING 40 ENLARGED SCALE INSTALMENT CREDIT EXTENDED s I I95S 1956 SOURCE BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEOERAI RESERVE SYSTEM I960 f COUNCfc OF ECONOMIC AOVtSgS Millions of dollars End of period Total consumer credit outstanding July August September October November December 1960 January February March April May JuneJuly August Total Automobile paper Other Repair and consumer moderni Personal goods loans zation paper loans Includes all consumer credit extended tor the purpose of purchasing automobiles and other consumer goods and secured by the items purchased Includes only such loans held by financial institutions those held by retail outlets are included in other consumer goods paper 28 Noniustalment credit outstanding Instalment credit outstanding Total InstalInstalment ment Charge credit ex credit tended repaid accounts Credit extended or repaid during the period Source Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System BOND YIELDS AND INTEREST RATES The rate on 3 month Treasury bills and U S Government bonds averaged spmew hgt higher inSepterrjber than in August but yields on high grade municipals and corporate Aaa bonds changed Jitris Yields rose slightly in early October PERCENT PER ftHNim PERCENT PER ANNUM I COUNCL OF iCONOfcJC ADVlSBtS SOURCES SEE TABLE BELOW Period September October November December I960 January February March April May June July August September Week ended I960 September 3 17 October 1 1 Bate Percent gey annum CJ S Government High grade security yie ds municipal 3 month bonds Taxable Treasury Standard 1 bonds Poor s bills a 37 L aos aeo 1 839 a 43 a a a on new Issues within period Series Includes April 1553 to date bonds doe or callable 10 years and after April 1952 Mardi 1953 bonds due or callable after 12 years October 1941 Mareh 1952 bonds due or callable after IS years Corporate bonds fMoody s Aaa Baa Prime commercial paper 4 6 months a 06 a 89 a 79 a 51 a 53 a is a si a si Weekly data are Wednesday figures Not charted Sonrces Treasury Department and Board of Qoreroon of the Federal Beserro System except as noted 29 STOCK PRICES Stock prices declined in September but recovered somewhat in early Ofcfober INDEX INDEX S9 8IQQ too 100 I960 OOUHCK C KXMOWC WHte BOURCC SECURITIES AND EXCHANBE COHMSSIOM Composite index Period Weekly average September October November eceznber 1960 January February March April May June July August September Week ended 1960 September 9 October H j Manufacturing TransDurable Nondura portation Total ble goods goods a a Z R ao a iao a ft 9 26a a ia Trade finance Mining and service a Includes 266 common stocks 9S or durable goods manufacturing 72 for nondurable gooda mantuscturlne 22 for traiLsportatiou 29 for militias 31 for trade finance and scrvlcr and 14 or mining Indexes are for weekly dosing prices 30 Utilities i7as X 3 2iao Not charted Source Securities and Exchange Commission S FEDERAL FINANCE BUDGET RECEIPTS AND EXPENDITURES For ilic first 3 months of the currentfisc01 year there was d budget deficit of Jl 2 billion For the same period last year the deficit was 1 8 billion i r BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS NET BUDGET RECEIPTS NET BUDGET EXPENDITURES 78 SO I SB MAJOR NATIONAL SECURITY EXPENDITURES I BUDGET SURPLUS OR DEFICIT ENLARGED SCALE 8 S 10 IS 1956 I9S7 I9S8 I9S9 I I FISCAL YEARS ESTIMATE SOURCES TREASURY DEPARTMENT AHO BUREAU of THE BU08ET Period Fiscal year 1955 Fiscal year 1956 Fiscal year 1957 Fiscal year 1958 Fiscal year 1959 4 Fiscal year I960 Fiscal year September October4 November December 1960 January February March4 April May June July August September Cumulative totals first 3 months Fiscal year 1960 Fiscal year COUNCIL Of KOHOMK Billions of dollarsj Net budget expenditures Budget Net Major national security surplus budget Department or Total receipts Total of Defense deficit military a eae 7L as 2 1 as L3 as as ao e i a ai Public debt end of3 period R fi a R a4 i Includes military activities of tbo Department of Defense military functions and the military assistance portion of the mutual security program Atomic Energy Commission stockpiling and defense production expansion Military functions and military assistance Includes guaranteed securities held outside the Treasury Not all of total shown is subject to statutory debt limitation 4 2sae Preliminary Estimate NOTE Total budget receipts and expenditures have been adjusted to exclude certain iutragovernmexxtal transactions Sources Treasury Department and Bureau of the Budeet CASH RECEIPTS FROM AND PAYMENTS TO THE PtJBLIC In the first quarter of the current fiscal year cash payments from the public exceeded cash receipts by about 760 million In the first quarter of Fiscal 1960 cash payments exceeded cash receipts by 3 0 billion BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS I 1958 CALENDAR YEARS I PRELIMINARY ESTIMATES SOURCES TREASURY OEP RTMENT ANO BUREAU OP THE BUPSET Millions of dollars Period Fiscal year total I Calendar year total Quarterly total calendar years not adjusted for seasonal variation 1958 Third quarter Fourth quarter First quarter Second quarter1 Third quarter Fourth quarter First quarter Second quarter1 Third quarter Cash receipts from the public Cash payments to the public a Preliminary Estimate Sources Bureau ot the Budget and Treasury Department 32 For sale by the Superintendent of Documents 0 S Government Printing Office Washington 25 D C Price 20 cents per copy 2 00 per year 2 75 foreign Excess of receipts or payments

Bond Yields and Interest Rates

DATE: October 1960

PART OF:

Economic Indicators : October 1960

AUTHOR:

Council of Economic Advisers (U.S.)

CONTRIBUTING AUTHORS:

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Council of Economic Advisers (U.S.) , United States. Congress. Joint Committee on the Economic Report, 1946-1956 and United States. Congress. Joint Economic Committee, 1956-. "Bond Yields and Interest Rates," in Council of Economic Advisers (U.S.) , United States. Congress. Joint Committee on the Economic Report, 1946-1956 and United States. Congress. Joint Economic Committee, 1956-. "October 1960," Economic Indicators (October 1960) : 32-32. https://fraser.stlouisfed.org/title/1/item/446/toc/328616 , accessed on December 6, 2019.

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Economic Data