Gross National Product or Expenditure

Name: Gross National Product or Expenditure
Creator: FRASER
Keywords: Economic Data, Economic indicators, Economic conditions, United States

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The following is plain-text output generated by Optical Character Recognition. 86th Congress 2d Session VU M t f Y 1m I Tl l 1 S U IIIULIL Ci T T C LUX b JAMUJIEY 1960 Prepared for the Joint Economic Committee by the Council of Economic Advisers UNITED STATES GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE WASHINGTON JOINT ECONOMIC COMMITTEE Created pursuant to Sec 5 a of Public Law 304 79th Cong PAUL H DOUGLAS Illinois Chairman WRIGHT PATMAN Texas Vice Chairman SENATE JOHN SPARKMAN Alabama J WILLIAM FULBRIGHT Arkansas JOSEPH C O MAHONEY Wyoming JOHN F KENNEDY Massachusetts PRESCOTT BUSH Connecticut JOHN MARSHALL BUTLER Maryland JACOB K JAVITS New York HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES RICHARD BOLLING Missouri HALE BOGGS Louisiana HENRY S REUSS Wisconsin FRANK M COFFIN Maine THOMAS B CURTIS Missouri CLARENCE E KILBURN New York WILLIAM B WIDNALL New Jersey RODERICK H RILFY Executive Director JOHN W LEHMAN Clerk COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS RAYMOND J SAULNIER Chairman KARL BRANDT HENRY C WALLICH PUBLIC LAW 120 81sr CONGRESS CHAPTER 237 IST SESSION JOINT RESOLUTION S J Res 55 To print the monthly publication entitled Economic Indicators Resolved by the Senate and House of Representatives of the United States of America in Congress assembled That the Joint Economic Committee be authorized to issue a monthly publication entitled Economic Indicators and that a sufficient quantity be printed to furnish one copy to each Member of Congress the Secretary and the Sergeant at Arms of the Senate the Clerk Sergeant at Arms and Doorkeeper of the House of Representatives two copies to the libraries of the Senate and House and the Congressional Library seven hundred copies to the Joint Economic Committee and the required number of copies to the Superintendent of Documents for distribution to depository libraries and that the Superintendent of Documents be authorized to have copies printed for sale to the public Approved June Charts drawn by Graphics Unit Office of the Secretary Department of Commerce 11 Contents TOTAL OUTPUT INCOME AND SPENDING The Nation s Income Expenditure and Saving Gross National Product or Expenditure National Income Sources of Personal Income Disposition of Personal Income Per Capita Disposable Income Farm Income Corporate Profits Gross Private Domestic Investment Expenditures for New Plant and Equipment Page EMPLOYMENT UNEMPLOYMENT AND WAGES Status of the Labor Force Nonagricultural Employment Average Weekly Hours Selected Industries Average Hourly Earnings Selected Industries Average Weekly Earnings Selected Industries PRODUCTION AND BUSINESS ACTIVITY Industrial Production Production of Selected Manufactures Weekly Indicators of Production New Construction Housing Starts and Applications for Financing Sales and Inventories Manufacturing and Trade Merchandise Exports and Imports PRICES Consumer Prices Wholesale Prices Prices Received and Paid by Farmers CURRENCY CREDIT AND SECURITY MARKETS Currency and Deposits Bank Loans Investments and Reserves Consumer Credit Bond Yields and Interest Rates Stock Prices FEDERAL FINANCE Budget Receipts and Expenditures Cash Receipts from and Payments to the Public 31 32 NOTE Detail in chese cables will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding Ill TOTAL OUTPUT INCOME AND THE NATION S INCOME EXPENDITURE AND SAVING Current estimates indicate that total income and expenditures dropped between the second and third quarters Billions of dollars 1958 Year Second quarter Third quarter Excess of re ceipts Economic group 1959 ExRe pendceipts itures or expenditures Excess of receipts ExRe pendceipts itures or expenditures Third quarter Excess of receipts Excess of reExExRe pendRe pend ceipts ceipts itures or ex ceipts itures or expendpend itures itures Seasonally adjusted annual rates Consumers Disposable personal income 316 5 Personal consumption ex293 0 penditures Excess of transfers f or of net exports P L Excess of investment International Foreign net transfers by government Net exports of goods and services Personal net saving H Business Gross retained earnings Gross private domestic investment Government Federal State and local Tax and nontax receipts or 1149 accruals Less Transfers interest 32 9 and subsidies net C Net receipts P Total government expenditures Less Transfers interest and subsidies net m Purchases of goods and services Surplus or deficit on income and product accountStatistical discrepancy HX7 2 1 GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT i Not available NOTE For explanation and use of this arrangement see Senate Report No 1295 Joint Economic Report pp and Economic Report of the Pmident January 1953 Appendix A P Sources Department of Commerce and Council of Economic Advisors GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT OR EXPENDITURE Gross national product declined 5 9 billion seasonally adjusted annual rate between the second and third quarters according to current estimates A drop in private domestic investment of a larger amount was partially offset by in creases in other major components BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES S 20O 200 GOVERNMENT PURCHASES OP GOODS AND SERVICES 100 GROSS PRIVATE DOMESTIC INVESTMENT NET EXPORTS OF T300DS AND SERVICES I I 1955 I 1 1 L 1956 SOURCE DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS Billions ot dollar Total Personal Government purchases of goods and services Net Gross gross Total conprivate exports Federal national gross sumpState Period goods product national tion domestic of and Total and 2 National investin 1958 product expendTotal defense Other local l services ment prices itures as Sa sao ae ai Seasonally adjusted annual rates 1957 Third quarter a Fourth quarter a sas 1 958 First Quarter Second quarter Third quarter L6 5a i B Q 40 8 Fourth quarter First a uarter as eoonn quarter ao Third nunrtcr 469 7 47a ai Preliminary estimate by Council of Economic Advises l aa Government tmles correspond closely with the major national security category in The Rudget of the United States Government far the Fiscal Year Ending June SO I960 shown on p 31 of Economic Indicators Source Department of Commerce except as noted NATIONAL INCOME Compensation of employees seasonally adjusted increased slightly in the third quarter income and net interest also increased slightly but Farm income dropped again Business and professional BtLLjgNS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 400 SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES 300 COMPENSATION OF EMPLOYEES PROPRIETORS AND RENTAL INCOME CORPORATE PROFITS AND INVENTORY VALUATION ADJUSTMENT NET INTEREST r T T COUNCa OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS SOURCE DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE Billions of dollars Period Proprietors income Third quarter Fourth Quarter 1958 First quarter Second quarter Third quarter Fourth quarter 1959 First quarter Second quarter Third quarter Compensation of em ployees Seasonally adjusted annual rates Farm 1 Includes employer contributions for social insurance See also p 4 Not available Source Department of Commerce Rental income of persons Total national income Business and professional Net Corporate profits and inventory valuation adjustment inter est Total Profits Inventory before valuation taxes adjustment l 1 3ao a o SOURCES OF PERSONAL INCOME Personal income in November was at an annual rate of nearly 385 billion seasonally adjusted 2 billion higher than in October and 1 billion above the pre strike peak in June Labor income and government transfer payments accounted for most of the November rise BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS fcOUNCHT ECONOMIC ADVISERS SOURCE DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE Period Total personal income October November December 1959 January February March April May June July August September October November Billions of dollars Labor income Proprietors income Less Per wage and Rental sonal con Nonagrisalary disincome Divi Personal Transfer tributions cultural Business interest paybursements Farm of and pro persons dends income ments for social personal and other 1 income 2 insurfessional labor income ance Seasonally adjusted annual rates Compensation of employees see p 3 excluding employer contributions for social Insurance and the excess of wage accruals over disbursements 3 Personal income exclusive of net income of unincorporated farm enterprises farm wniws agricultural net interest and net dividends paid by agricultural corporations s Preliminary estimates Source Department of Commerce DISPOSITION OF PERSONAL INCOME Disposable personal income seasonally adjusted dropped slightly between the second and third quarters according to current estimates Total consumption expenditures rose at an annual rate of 2 1 billion BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 350 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS SOURCE DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE Equals Personal Less Disposincome Personal able l taxes personal income Period Third quarter Fourth quarter 1958 First quarter Second quarter Third quarter Fourth quarter 1959 First quarter Second quarter Third quarter Includes such items as fines penalties and donations Source Department of Commerce Less Personal consumption expenditures Total Saving Equals as percent Personal of disDurable Nonsaving posable goods durable Services income goods Billions of dollars Seasonally adjusted annual rates PER CAPITA DISPOSABLE INCOME Per capita disposable income measured in bofh current and coiisfant prices showed a small decrease in the thlrdt quarter DOLLARS SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES I SEE FOOTNOTE 2 ON TABLE BELOW SOURCES DEPARTMENT Of COMMERCE DEPARTMENT OF LABOR AND COUNCIL OP ECONOMIC ADVISERS Current prices 1958 prices i COUNCIL OP ECONOMIC ADVtSBtS Total disposable personal income billions of dollars l Period Per capita disposable personal income dollars 1 Current prices prices Population thousands S Seasonally adjusted annual rates 1957 Third quarter Fourth quarter 1968 First quarter Second quarter Third quarter Fourth quarter 1959 First quarter Second quarter Third quarter 1 Income less taxes Dollar estimates In current prices divided by consumer price Index on a 1958 base Continental United States including armed forces overseas Annual data 6 as of July 1 quarterly data centered in the middle of the period interpolated from monthly figures Sources Department of Commerce Department of Labor and Council of Economic Advisers FARM INCOME Farm operators net income seasonally adjusted and including net change in inventories declined in the third quarter It was less than a year before as a smaller 1959 wheat crop and lower prices for hogs and poultry products reduced receiots from those commodities BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES NET FARM INCOME I NCL NET CHANGE IN INVENTORIES INCOME OF FARM OPERATORS FROM FARMING SOURCE DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE Realized gross farm income Period Third quarter Fourth quarter 1958 First quarter Second quarter Third quarter Fourth quarter 1959 First qu arter Second quarter T h ird n u arter COUNCIL Of eCONOMIC ADVKCT5 Farm operators income Net income 2 Net income per farm including net change in Excluding Including Farm proinventories duction net change net change in invenexpenses in inven1958 Current tories tories prices prices 8 Billions of dollars Dollars ia I Seasonally adjusted annual rates Gash receipts from farm marketings value of farm products consumed in farm households gross rental value of farm dwellings and Government payments to fanners Realized gross farm income less farm production expenses Excludes farm wages paid to workers living on farms and any income to farm people from nonfarm sources which in 1958 amounted to 1 8 billion and 6 2 billion respectively 1957 Number of farms millions t s Dollar estimates in current prices divided by the index of prices paid by farmers for items used in family living on a 1958 base The number of farms is held constant within a given year Source Department of Agriculture CORPORATE PROFITS Corporate profits before taxes in the second quarter of 1959 are estimated at 52 6 billion seasonally adjusted annual rate LL10NSW DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS NO ALLOWANCE FOR INVENTORY VALUATION ADJUSTMENT COUNOl OF ECONOMIC ADVtSijiS SOURCE DEPARTMENT Of COMMERCE jBillions of dollars Corporate profits before taxes Period Corporate tax liability Corporate profits after taxes Total R9 Dividend payments Undistributed profits as R Seasonally adjusted annual rates 1957 Third quarter Fourth quarter First quarter Second quarter Third quarter i Fourth quarter First quarter Second quarter Third quarter NOTK Hee p 3 for profits tofore taxtss and after Inventory valuation adjustment Hourcc Dopartinont of Coinmnrce a ao a ia P GROSS PRIVATE DOMESTIC INVESTMENT Gross private domestic investment felt 10 5 billion seasonally adjusted annual rate between the second and third quarters The reduction in inventories accounted for the decline BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS COUNCA OF ECONOMIC ADVJSERS SOURCE DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE Billions of dollars Total gross private domestic investment Period Third quarter Fourth quarter 1958 First quarter Second quarter Third quarter Fourth quarter 1959 First quarter Second quarter Third quarter Total a i New construction i Producers durable ResidenTotal Other equiptial ment nonfarm Seasonally adjusted annual rates Other construction in this series includes petroleum and natural gas well drilling which are excluded from estimates on p 19 Change in business inventories Fixed investment Total Nonfarm EO a i aa 1 8 Source Department of Commerce 9 EXPENDITURES FOR NEW PLANT AND EQUIPMENT The October November survey of business expenditures on plant and equipment indicates rising outlays in the fourth quarter of 1959 and the first quarter of 1960 Expenditures for the year 1959 have fallen below earlier anticipations reflecting for the most part the effects of the steel strike and are now expected to be 7 percent above actual outlays in 1958 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS I960 J953 S E E NOTE 3 ON TABLE BELOW COUNCIL Cf ECONOMIC ADVISERS SOURCES SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE COMMISSION AND DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE Billions of dollars Transportation Manufacturing j Period Total Total First quarter Second quarter Third quarter Fourth quarter First quarter Second quarter Third quarter Fourth quarter First quarter I Durable goods Commercial and other 2 Railroads Other Public utilities SO Seasonally adjusted annual rates Excludes agriculture a Commercial and other includes trade service finance communications and construction 3 Estimates based on anticipated capital expenditures as reported by business In late October and November 1959 Includes adjustments when necessary for systematic tendencies in anticipatory data 10 Nondurable goods Mining NOTE Annual total is the sum of unadjusted expenditures it does not neces sarily coincide with the average of seasonally adjusted figures These figures do not asree with the totals included in the gross national product estimates of the Department of Commerce principally because the latter cover agricultural investment and also certain equipment and construction outlays charged to current expense Sources Securities and Exchange Commission and Department of Commerce EMPLOYMENT UNEMPLOYMENT AND WAGES STATUS OF THE LABOR FORCE Total employment increased in December although a decline is expected at this time of year was lower reflecting recovery from the effects of the steel strike MILLIONS OF PERSONS Unemployment MILLIONS OF PERSONS YEARS OF AGE AND OVER SOURCE DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE AND DEPARTMENT OF LABOR COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS l Period Total Civilian employment Unemployment Insured unemployment 2 labor oi civilian State proAll proforce in Civilian labor Agricul N on agri Number labor force grams grams as cluding Total force cultural tural Unad Seas thousands of covered armed 3 justed adj of persons employment forces J Thousands of persons 14 years of age and over New definitions J November 70 701 December January 70 062 February March April May June July August September 72 629 October November I ecember Oil See Employment and Earnings Department of Labor for definitions methods of estimation periods to which data pertain etc Weekly averages Beginning July 1959 includes Alaska and Hawaii Includes program for Federal employees for 1955nJune 1959 S a a6 a3 3 5 a4 ai a Preliminary estimate Sources Department of Commerce Department of Labor and Council of Economic Advisers 11 NONAGRICULTURAL EMPLOYMENT Employment in nonagricaltural establishments seasonally adjusted increased in December MILLIONS OF WAGE AND SALARY WORKERS MILLIONS OF WAGE AND SALARY WORKERS MANUFACTURING ALL NONAGRICULTURAL ESTABLISHMENTS 54 18 TOTAL 52 50 DURABLE y GOODS INDUSTRIES NONDURABLE GOODS INDUSTRIES X WHOLESALE AND RETAIL TRADE CONTRACT CONSTRUCTION ENLARGED SCALE ENLARGED SCALE U I II M M 1 II SEASONALLY ADJUSTED DATA SOURCE DEPARTMENT OF LABOR Thousands of wage and salary workers l l Period November December 1959 January February March April May June July August September October 2 2 3 November 2 3 December Total 48 SOS S Total Durable goods Includes nil full and part time wage and salary workers in nonagricultural c sf ihlislimonts who worked dnring or received pay for any part of the pay period end in nearest the 15th of the month Excludes proprietors self em plos ed persons tlomcsi ic servants and personnel of the armed forces Total derived from t h i s f n l i l c imi comparable with estimates of nonagricultural employment of the civilian labor force shown on p 11 which include proprietors self employed 12 GovernContract Wholesale ment Nondura Mining construc and retail Federal trade State tion ble goods local Adjusted for seasonal variation Manufacturing Total unadjusted Other persons and domestic servants which count persons as employed when they are not at work because of industrial disputes and which are based on an enumeration of population whereas the estimates in this table are based on reports from employing establishments 2 Revisions and additions became available after chart was prepared 3 Preliminary estimates Source Department of Labor AVERAGE WEEKLY HOURS SELECTED INDUSTRIES The average workweek of production workers in manufacturing industries increased 0 6 hours in December lo 40 5 hours reflecting rising activity in steel using industries HOURS PER WEEK 46 HOURS PER WEEK 46 NONDURABLE MANUFACTURING JJ i i i I I I I I I I i I I I I II I I I I I I I I Li RETAIL TRADE h X JJ 1 1 i I 1 1 1 1 M l l l l M i l l I 30 1 II 1 M i l l i l l l l l MILL IOCC 1ORQ COUNCIL OF ICONOMJC ADVISERS SOURCE DEPARTMENT OF LABOR Hours per week for production workers or nonsupervisory employees Manufacturing 5 Period November December 1959 January February March April May June Julv August September October 1 2 November 1 2 December Total Revisions and additions became available after chart was prepared 2 Preliminary estimates SNot available Source Department of Labor Durable goods Nondurable goods Building construction Retail trade AVERAGE HOURLY EARNINGS SELECTED INDUSTRIES Average hourly earnings were 2 26 in December 7 cenfs above the level of December 1958 DOLLARS PER HOUR NONDURABLE MANUFACTURING RETAIL TRADE PRI 1958 PRICES 2 OO mm t Z CURRENT PRICES I M M I I I I I I I I I l l I I I I I I 1956 I I M I I M I II SOURCE DEPARTMENT OF LABOR I For production workers or nonsupervisory employees Durable goods Building All manufacturing manufacturing Nondurable goods construction manufacturing Current 1958 Current 1958 Current Current prices prices 1 prices prices l prices prices l prices prices l Period November December 1959 January February March April May June July AugustSeptember October2 November 2 3 December 2 3 COUNCIL OF ICONOMIC ADVISERS i Earnings in current prices divided by consumer price index on a 1958 base Revisions and additions became available after chart was prepared 3 Preliminary estimates 14 Not available Source Department of Labor Retail trade Current prices L prices AVERAGE WEEKLY EARNINGS SELECTED INDUSTRIES Average weekly earnings of production workers in manufacturing industries recovered to the record level of 91 53 in December after declining during the steel strike DOLLARS PER WEEK DOLLARS PER WEEK RETAIL TRADE NONDURABLE MANUFACTURING CURRENT PRICES I ii i i t iii t i I I l i Li1 iJ I i i i l l ii u 1958 COUNCIL Of ECONOMIC ADVISERS SOURCE DEPARTMENT OF LABOR For production workers or nonsupervisory employees Durable goods Nondurable goods Building Ail manufacturing manufacturing manufacturing construction Current Current Current 1958 Current prices prices prices prices 1 prices prices 1 prices prices 1 Period November December 1959 January February M arch April May June July August September October 2 2 3 November 3 3 December Current prices Earnings in current prices divided by consumer price index on a 1958 base 2 Kevisions and additions became available after chart was prepared Preliminary estimates C Retail trade 1958 prices l Not available Source Department of Labor 15 PRODUCTION AND BUSINESS ACTIVITY INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION The new industrial production index shows December output 6 percent above the November level major sectors contributed to the rise the largest increase was in durable manufacturing INDEX SEASONALLY ADJUSTED 130 INDEX SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ISO 120 Although all 120 UTILITIES 100 H MINING I I960 IOO I960 SOURCE BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS seasonally adjusted Period November December 1959 January February March April May June Julv August September October November Docem ber l y not charted 16 Total industrial production Market Industry Final products Manufacturing Total NonDurable durable Mining Utilities Total Consumer goods Equipment Materials NOTE Series revised See Federal Reserve Bulletin December 1959 Source Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System PRODUCTION OF SELECTED MANUFACTURES Accordin to the new industrial production index production of primary metals increased sharply again in December and transportation equipment recovered part of its November drop Output of most nondurable manufactures was about the same as in October and November INDEX SEASONALLY ADJUSTED INDEX SEASONALLY ADJUSTED I 1 1 I I 1 1 I I 1 1 I H 1 1 M I IJLll iJJLJULLLlJ COUNCIL OP ECONOMIC ADVISERS SOURCE BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM seasonally adjusted Durable manufactures Period Nondurable manufactures FabriTranspor Lumber Textiles Paper Primary cated Machin tation and apparel and metal metals ery equipprodand printproducts ment ucts leather ing Chemicals Foods petrobeverleum and ages and rubber tobacco 1959 January February March April May June July August September October November1 December 1 Preliminary Not available 2 2 Source Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System NOTE Series revised for details see Federal Reserve Bulletin December 1959 and January 1960 Monthly data on the new basis for the industry groups shown in this table are not yet available for years prior to 1959 The data charted above are the old series Chart will be revised when new series becomes available for back years about March 1950 17 WEEKLY INDICATORS OF PRODUCTION Output of steel continued at a high rate during December November rates MILLIONS OF TONS 3 Production of cars and trucks exceeded the reduced MILLIONS OF SHORT TONS DAILY AVERAGE SOURCES AMERICAN IRON AND STEEL INSTITUTE DEPARTMENT OF THE INTERIOR EDISON ELECTRIC INSTITUTE AND WARD S AUTOMOTIVE REPORTS Period Weekly average November December 1959i January February M arch April May June July August September October November 3 December Week ended 1959 December January Bituminous Freight Paper board iUeetrie Cars and trucks Steel produced power coal mined produced loaded Thousands Index distributed thousands thousands thousands assembled thousands millions of of net of short Total Cars Trucks of tons of cars 100 tons kilowatt hours tons i Weekly capacities net tons as of January 1 are and Daily average for week Preliminary weekly data not charted For December COUNCIL Of ICONOMIC ADVISERS For January 1 10 Sources American Iron and Steel Institute Edison Electric Institute Department of the Interior Association of American Railroads National Paperboard Association and Ward s Automotive Eeports NEW CONSTRUCTION Expenditures for both private and public construction seasonally adjusted rose during December BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLiONS OF DOLLARS SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES 50 TOTAL NEW CONSTRUCTION 40 PRIVATE I I I M I t I I I I I I I I I M t I i I M I I i I i I I I I I 1 I I I I I I t I I I I M I I M I I 1 I 1 1 M I I I M I I 1 t I 1 1 I M i I I In 10 D M I M I I 1 11 I I I M I I I I I 1 1I I COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS SOURCES DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE AND DEPARTMENT OF LABOR Billions of dollars Total new construction Period November December 1959 January February March April May j June July August September October November December Private Federal State and Total Residential Other local nonfarm private Seasonally adjusted annual rates Compiled by F W Dodge Corporation seasonally adjusted by the National Bureau of Economic Research Omits small contracts and covers rural areas less fully than urban 2 Series begins January 1956 The 37 eastern States data are probably indicative of the 48 States trend for other periods Construction contracts l 48 States 2 37 Eastern States Revised series beginning January 1956 not comparable with prior data Series discontinued beginning January 1958 4 Preliminary estimates Sources Department of Commerce Department of Labor and F W Dodge Corporation except as noted 19 HOUSING STARTS AND APPLICATIONS FOR FINANCING Private nonfarm housing starts seasonally adjusted rose in November to an annual rate of units FHA applications and VA appraisal requests decreased again MILLIONS OF UNITS MILLIONS OF UNITS I SEE FOOTNOTE 2 ON TABLE BELOW SOURCES DEPARTMENTS OF LABOR AND COMMERCE FEDERAL HOUSING ADMINISTRATION IF H A AND VETERANS ADMINISTRATION VAX Thousands of units New nonfarm housing starts Period Total Annual total Monthly average October November December January February March 142 2 April May June July 128 8 August September October 3 November 92 3 Publicly financed Total Privately financed Government programs VA Total FHA Excludes armed forces housing 24 872 units in units in 1958 and HU84 units Jn the first 11 months of 1959 Also excludes starts under Certified Agcmt Program 1 426 units in May November 1959 Units represented by mortgage applications for new home construction 20 Both 1959 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS Proposed home construction Private Requests seasonally Applications for VA adjusted for FHA com2 appraisals 2 annual mitments rates la i Preliminary estimates Sources Department of Labor Department of Commerce Federal Housing Administration FHA and Veterans Administration VA SALES AND INVENTORIES MANUFACTURING AND TRADE Manufacturing and trade sales and inventories continued to decline in November due primarily to reduction of billion in retail trade Preliminary estimates for December indicate a further decline in retail sales BILLIONS OF DOLLARS SEASONALLY ADJUSTED BILLIONS OF DOLLARS SEASONALLY ADJUSTED i l l I I I I I I M i l l I I 1 I I I I I I I I I 1 I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I 1 rf EXJ QQ SEASONALLY ADJUSTED MANUFACTURING RETAIL TRADE AND WHOLESALE TRADE SOURCE DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE AND BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM Period Manufacturing and trade Manufacturing Wholesale COUNCIl OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS Retail 1 l l Inven New InvenInvenSales tories 2 Sales tories 2 ordersl Sales tories 2 Sales Billions of dollars seasonally adjusted October November December 1959 January February March April May June July August September October November December R as Monthly average for year and total for month Book value end of period seasonally adjusted Book value end of period except annual data which are monthly averages ia Inventories Department stores Inventories 3 Index seasonally adjusted Sales J s Not charted Preliminary estimates Sources Department of Commerce and Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System 21 MERCHANDISE EXPORTS AND IMPORTS In the first 11 months of 1959 commercial exports were 1 percent lower and imports 19 percent higher than in the corresponding period of 1958 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 2 5 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS COUNCR OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS SOURCE DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE 1 Millions of dollars Merchandise exports Period i960 monthly average 1951 monthly average monthly average monthly average monthly average monthly average monthly average monthly average monthly average 1958 October November December 1959 January February March i April May June July August September October November Total Grant aid shipments1 Commercial exports Figures include only Department of Defense shipments of grant aid military supplies and equipment under the Mutual Security Program Shipments for the first 6 months of the program July December 1950 amounted to 282 million 22 Merchandise imports Excess of exports over imports Excluding Total grant aid shipments Sources Department of Commerce and Department of Defense PRICES CONSUMER PRICES Consumer prices rose slightly in November Food price declines were outweighed by increases in most other categories INDEX ISO INDEX HOO m m mm 120 MO COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS SOURCE DEPARTMENT OF LABOR Period October November December January February March April J May June July August September October November Housing All items Food na na Total a a7 12a 8 12a Rent a3 13a a Apparel Transportation na i2ao Reading Other Medical Personal and goods care and care recreaservices tion V2a 6 12a na i ioa a J Includes in addition to rent homeowner costs utilities housefurnishings etc Source Department of Labor 23 WHOLESALE PRICES Wholesale prices changed little in December according to the weekly indexes INDEX IOO INDEX OTHER THAN FARM PRODUCTS AND FOODS INDUSTRIAL SOURCE DEPARTMENT OF LABOR 1959 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS Period November December 1959 January February March April May June July August September October November Week ended December I960 January 5 1 Weekly series based on smaller sample than monthly series 24 All commodities Farm products Processed foods Other than farm products and foods industrial Souree Department of Labor ioa 8 PRICES RECEIVED AND PAID BY FARMERS The index of prices received by farmers declined 2 points in the month ended December 15 as prices again were lower for meat animals and cotton The parity index and parity ratio were unchanged INDEX INDEX PRICES PAID INTEREST TAXES AND WAGE RATES gQQi I I I 1 I I 1 1 1 I I I I I 1 I I 1 I I 1 1 1 1 M 1 1 1 I 1 11 M l j I 1 I I I l l j I 11 I I I I M I 1 I I I 1 I I 1 i l l I I I PARITY RATIOJ 75 I M I I t I I IM M I I I 1 M IM RATIO OF INDEX OF PRICES RECEIVED TO INDEX OF PRICES PAID INTEREST TAXES AND WAGE RATES SOURCE DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC RDVISERS Prices received by farmers Period November 15 December January 15 February 15 March 15 April 15 Mav 15 June 15 July 15 August 15 September 15 October 15 November 15 December 15 All farm products Crops Percentage ratio of index of prices received by farmers to index of prices paid Interest taxes and wage rates Prices paid by farmers All items interest Livestock taxes and Family Producand living tion products wage rates items items parity index Index Parity ratio l Source Department of Agriculture 25 CURRENCY CREDIT AND SECURITY MARKETS CURRENCY AND DEPOSITS The total of demand deposits and currency rose slightly more than seasonally in November BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS SOURCE BOARD OF GOVERNORS OFTHE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM End of period November December January February March April Mav June 4 July August 4 4 September October 4 4 Kovornhor Total U S deposits Governand ment curderency posits l Billions of dollars Total excluding U 6 Government deposits Demand deposits and currency Time D e m a n d Currency de 2 Total Total deposits3 outside posits adjusted banks U S Government deposits at Federal Reserve Banks and commercial and savings hanks and U S Treasurer s time deposits open account 2 Deposits in commercial banks mutual savings banks and Postal Savings System excludes interbank deposits 3 Demand deposits other than interbank and U S Government less cash items in process of collection 26 4 Demand deposits and currency seasonally adjusted Demand Currency Total deposits outside adjusted banks IS s L fi S S Preliminary estimates NOTE See Note p 27 Monthly data are for the last Wednesday of the month Source Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System BANK LOANS INVESTMENTS AND RESERVES Commercial bank loans increased 1 3 billion in November compared to an increase of 1 1 billion In November 1958 Borrowings at Federal Reserve Banks exceeded excess reserves by about the same amount as in recent months BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS END OF MONTH SOURCE BOARD OF GOVERNORS Of THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM End of period October November December January February March April May June 4 July 4 August September 4 October 4 November 4 Total loans and investments isa 2 Billions of dollars 1 All commercial banks Investments U S Gov Other Loans Total ernment securities securities i Member banks include besides all national banks those State bankj that have taken membership in the Federal Reserve System Commercial and industrial loans and prior to 1956 agricultural loans Series revised beginning January 1952 October 1955 and July 1958 Averages of daily figures on balances and borrowings during the period Preliminary estimates Weekly reporting member banks Business loans All member banks BorrowReserve balances 3 ings at Federal Required Excess Reservea Banks ia 5 ia i ia NOTE Between January and August 1959 these series except that for weekly reporting member banks were expanded to include data for all banks in Alaska and Hawaii Source Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System 27 CONSUMER CREDIT Consumer credit outstanding increased about 500 million in November compared with a rise of about 275 million in November 1958 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 60 60 TOTAL CREDIT OUTSTANDING SOURCE BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM End of period Total consumer credit outstanding October November December 1959 January February March April May June i July August September October November Millions of dollars Instalment credit outstanding Total Automobile paper Non instalment credit outstanding Other Repair and consumer moderni Personal zation loans goods paper l loans Includes all consumer credit extended for the purpose of purchasing automobiles and other consumer goods and secured by the items purchased liM liKlHH only such loans neld by financial institutions those held by retail omlt is are included in other consumer goods paper I960 COUNCU OP ECONOMIC ADVISERS Total Charge accounts InstalInstalment ment credit ex credit 3 3 tended repaid a Credit extended or repaid during the period Source Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System BOND YIELDS AND INTEREST RATES The rate on 3 month Treasury bills was above 4 2 percent during December and early January Yields on U S Government municipal and corporate bonds increased during this period Period December 1959 January February March April May June July August September October November December Week ended 1959 December January U 1953 58 DATA PLOTTED MONTHLY 1959 WEEKLY SOimCES SEE TABLE BELOW COUNCIL Of ECONOMIC ADVISERS Percent per annum U S Government High grade security yields municipal 3 month bonds Taxable Treasury Standard3 bonds 2 bills i Poor s i Bate on new issues within period a Series includes April 1953 to date bonds due or callable 10 years and after April 1952 March 1963 bonds due or callable after 12 years October mi March 1952 bonds due or callable after 15 years Weekly data are Wednesday figures 1957 FOR VALUES SEE TABLE BELOW Corporate bonds Moody s Aaa Baa Prime commercial paper 4 6 months a Data for earlier weeks not plotted are Sept Sept 26 Oct Oct Nov Nov Nov and Nov Preliminary not charted Sources Treasury Department and Board of Governors of the Federal Eeserw System except as noted Q t STOCK PRICES Stock prices rose in December but declined in early January INDEX j U 1953 58 DATA PLOTTED MONTHLY 1959 WEEKLY SOURCE SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE COMMISSION COUNCJl OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS Compositel ndex Period Week v average December 1959 Januarv February March April May June Julv AllITUSt September October November December Week ended 1959 December Janunrv Manufacturing TransDurable Nondura portation Total goods ble goods Utilities Includes 265 common stocks 98 for durable poods manufacturing 72 for nondurable goods manufacturing 21 for transportation 29 for utilities 31 for trade finance and service and 14 for mining Indexes arc for weekly closing prices 30 Trade finance Mining and service 2 Not charted Source Securities and Exchange Commission FEDERAL FINANCE BUDGET RECEIPTS AND EXPENDITURES For the first 5 months of the current fiscal year there was a budget deficit of 6 4 billion year the deficit amounted to 10 1 billion BILLIONS OF DOLLARS For the same period last BILLIONS OF DOLLARS NET BUDGET EXPENDITURES NET BUDGET RECEIPTS MAJOR NATIONAL SECURITY I960 BUDGET SURPLUS OR DEFICIT ENLARGED SCALE PIMT I MONTI 1956 I95T ESTIMATE SOURCES TREASURY DEPARTMENT AND BUREAU OF THE BUDGET I I960 FISCAL YEARS I Billions of dollars Net budget expenditures Net Major national security Budget Period budget Department surplus receipts Total or of Defense Total deficit military functions Fiscal year Fiscal vear Fiscal year Fiscal year Fiscal vear Fiscal year Fiscal vear I October November December Januarv February March A Dril May June L5 4 July August September October November Cumulative totals for first 5 months Fiscal year Fiscal year Includes military functions of Department of Defense military assistance portion of the mutual security program Atomic Energy Commission stockpiling and defense production expansion Includes guaranteed securities except those held by the Treasury Not all of total shown is subject to statutOTy debt limitation Public debt end of period a a Estimates 1980 Federal Budget Midyear Review September 1959 Preliminary Sources Treasury Department and Bureau of the Budget 31 CASH RECEIPTS FROM AND PAYMENTS TO THE PUBLIC In the third quarter of calendar year 1959 cash payments to the public exceeded cash receipts by 3 billion This compares with an excess of payments of 5 5 billion in the third quarter of calendar 1958 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 0 EXCESS OF CASH RECEIPTS ENLARGED S wj H 5 SCALE KE M ld i EXCESS OF CASH PAYMENTS CALENDAR Y E A R S PRELIMINARY ESTIMATES SOURCES BUREAU OF THE BUDGET AND TREASURY DEPARTMENT 1958 I COUNCIL OF fCONOMIC ADVISERS Millions of dollars Cash receipts from the public Period Fiscal year total Calendar year total Quarterly total not adjusted for seasonal variation 1957 Third quarter Fourth quarter 1958 First quarter Second quarter Third quarter Fourth quarter First quarter Second quarter2 Third quarter Estimates 1960 Federal Budget Midyear Review September 1959 Sources Bureau of the Budget and Treasury Department 32 Cash payments to the public Preliminary For sale by the Superintendent of Documents U S Government Printing Office Washington 25 D C Price 20 cents per copy 2 00 per year 2 75 foreign Excess of receipts or payments f

Gross National Product or Expenditure

DATE: January 1960

PART OF:

Economic Indicators : January 1960

AUTHOR:

Council of Economic Advisers (U.S.)

CONTRIBUTING AUTHORS:

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Council of Economic Advisers (U.S.) , United States. Congress. Joint Committee on the Economic Report, 1946-1956 and United States. Congress. Joint Economic Committee, 1956-. "Gross National Product or Expenditure," in Council of Economic Advisers (U.S.) , United States. Congress. Joint Committee on the Economic Report, 1946-1956 and United States. Congress. Joint Economic Committee, 1956-. "January 1960," Economic Indicators (January 1960) : 5-5. https://fraser.stlouisfed.org/title/1/item/433/toc/126277 , accessed on December 6, 2019.

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Economic Data