Full text of Economic Indicators : February 1981
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97th Congress, 1st Session Economic Indicators FEBRUARY 1981 Prepared for the Joint Economic Committee by the Council of Economic Advisers UNITED STATES GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE WASHINGTON : 1981 JOINT ECONOMIC COMMITTEE (Created pursuant to Sec. 5(a) of Public Law 304, 79th Cong.) HENRY S. REUSS, Wisconsin, Chairman ROGER W. JEPSEN, Iowa, Vice Chairman HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES RICHARD BOLLING (Missouri) LEE H. HAMILTON (Indiana) GILLIS W. LONG (Louisiana) PARREN J. MITCHELL (Maryland) FREDERICK W. RICHMOND (New York) CLARENCE J. BROWN (Ohio) MARGARET M. HECKLER (Massachusetts) JOHN H. ROUSSELOT (California) CHALMERS P. WYUE (Ohio) SENATB WILLIAM V. ROTH, JR. (Delaware) JAMES ABDNOR (South Dakota) STEVEN D. SYMMS (Idaho) PAULA HAWKINS (Florida) MACK MATTINGLY (Georgia) LLOYD BENTSEN (Texas) WILLIAM PROXMIRE (Wisconsin) EDWARD M, KENNEDY (Massachusetts) PAUL S. SARBANES (Maryland) JAMES K. GALBRAITH, Executive Director COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS MURRAY L. WEIDENBAUM, Chairman [PUBLIC LAW 120—81sT CONGRESS; CHAPTER 237—IST SESSION] JOINT RfSOLUTION fS J. Res. 55] To print the monthly publication entitled "Economic Indicators" Resolved by the Senate and House oj'Representatives of the United States of America in Congress assembled. That the Joint Economic Committee be authorized to issue a monthly publication entitled "Economic Indicators," and that a sufficient quantity be printed to furnish one copy to each Member of Congress; the Secretary and the Sergeant at Arms of the Senate; the Clerk, Sergeant at Arms, and Doorkeeper of the House of Representatives; two copies to the libraries of the Senate and House, and the Congressional Library; seven hundred copies to the Joint Economic Committee; and the required numbers of copies to the Superintendent of Documents for distribution to depository libraries; and that the Superintendent of Documents be authorized to have copies printed for sale to the public. Approved June 2331949. Charts drawn by Art Production Branch3 Office of the Secretary, Department of Commerce. Economic Indicators, published monthly, is available at $2.00 a single copy or by subscription at $17.00 per year ($21.25 for foreign mailing) from: OF DOCUMENTS PRINTING OFFICE WASHINGTON, D.C. 20402 The 1980 Supplement to Economic Indicators, which describes each series and gives annual data for years not shown in the monthly issues, Is available at $5.00 a copy from the Superintendent of Documents, Government Printing Office. it should be noted that many of the series have undergone major revisions since the Supplement was published In the fall of 1980. .. TOTAL OUTPUT, INCOME, AND SPENDING GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT According to revised estimates for the fourth quarter of 1980, gross national product rose $95.0 billion or 15.2 percent, both at annual rates. Real output (GNP adjusted for price changes) rose 4.0 percent from the third quarter level and the implicit price deflator rose at a 10.7 percent annual rate. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 3,000 (RATIO SCALE) BILLIONS OF DOLLARS (RATIO SCALE) 3.QOQ SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES 2,800 2,800 2,600 2,600 2,400 2,400 2,200 2,200 2,000 GNP IN CURRENT DOLLARS \ 1,800 1,800 1,400 1,400 GNP IN 1972 DOLLARS 1 1973 1 1 1974 I I 1975 I I I 1976 I 1977 I I 1978 I I I 1979 1 1980 SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE 1 1 1981 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS (Billions of current dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] _, Period Gross national product Personal consumption expenditures Gross private domestic investment Export s and imp1>orts of gooc Is and ser m'es Go^/ernment purchases of goods and services Federal Net exports Exports Imports Total Total National defense Nondefense State and local Final sales 1970 992.7 621.7 1971 1, 077. 6 672.2 1972 1, 185. 9 737. 1 1973__ __ 1, 326. 4 812.0 1974__ 1, 434. 2 888. 1 1975__ _ 1, 549. 2 976.4 1976___ 1, 718. 0 1, 084. 3 1977 1, 918. 0 1, 205. 5 1978___ 2, 156. 1 1, 348. 7 1979 2, 413. 9 13 510. 9 1980 * 2, 626. 5 1? 672. 3 144.2 166.4 195. 0 229. 8 228.7 206. 1 257.9 322.3 375.3 415. 8 395.4 6.7 4. 1 .7 14.2 13.4 26.8 13.8 — 4. 2 -. 6 13.4 24.2 65.7 68.8 77.5 109.6 146. 2 154. 9 170.9 183.3 219. 8 281.3 340. 1 59.0 64. 7 76. 7 95.4 132.8 128. 1 157. 1 187. 5 220. 4 267. 9 315.9 220. 1 234. 9 253. 1 270.4 304. 1 339.9 362. 1 394.5 432. 6 473.8 534.6 95.7 96.2 101. 7 102. 0 111.0 122. 7 129. 2 143. 9 153.4 167.9 198.9 73.6 70.2 73. 1 72. 8 77.0 83.0 86. 0 93.3 100.0 111. 2 131.7 22.2 26. 0 28. 5 29. 1 33.9 39. 7 43.2 50.6 53. 4 56. 7 67.2 124.4 138. 7 151. 4 168.5 193. 1 217. 2 232.9 250.6 279.2 305. 9 335.7 989.5 1, 070. 0 1, 175. 7 1, 307. 9 1, 420. 1 1, 556. 1 I , 706. 2 1, 897. 0 2, 133. 9 2, 396. 4 2, 631. 8 61, 454. 1 61, 478. 0 11, 529. 1 31, 582. 3 408. 3 423.2 421.7 410. 0 19.9 8.2 17.9 7.6 259. 1 266.8 293. 1 306. 3 239.2 258.6 275.2 298. 7 458.2 465. 1 475.4 496.4 164.8 163.6 165. 1 178. 1 106. 0 108. 1 112.0 118. 7 58.8 55.5 53. 1 59.4 293.4 301.6 310. 4 318.3 2,316.2 2, 341. 5 2, 430. 8 2, 497. 1 23 571. 7 1, 631. 0 2, 564. 81 ? 626.8 2, 637. 31, 682. 2 2, 732. 31, 749. 2 415.6 390. 9 377. 1 398. 1 8.2 17. 1 44.5 26. 9 337.3 333.3 342.4 347. 5 329. 1 316.2 297.9 320. 5 516. 8 530.0 533.5 558.0 190.0 198. 7 194. 9 212. 1 125.0 128. 7 131.4 141. 6 64.9 70.0 63.5 70. 4 326.8 331. 3 338.6 346.0 2, 569. 1 2, 557. 4 2, 653. 4 2, 747. 5 1979: I 2, 340. II 2, 374. III_. 2, 444. IV._ 2, 496. 1980: I II III__ IV v ~ Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT IN 1972 DOLLARS [Billions of 1972 dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Exisorts of g<>ods and serviceJS Gross private dcwnestic iiivestment Personal conGross national sumption produc-t expenditures Nonresidential fixed Residential fixed 1, 085. 6 1, 122. 4 .. 1, 185. 9 1, 255. 0 1, 248. 0 1, 233. 9 _ 1, 300. 4 1, 371. 7 1, 436. 9 1. 483. 0 i; 480. 9 672. 1 696.8 737. 1 768.5 763.6 780.2 823. 7 863.9 904.8 930.9 9349 113.8 112.2 121. 0 138. 1 135.7 119.3 125.6 140.6 153.4 163. 3 158.2 41. 0 53.7 63.8 62.3 48.2 42.2 51.2 60.6 62.4 59. 1 48.2 3.8 8. 1 10.2 17.2 11.6 -6.7 7.8 12. 3 14 0 10.2 -2.6 3.9 1.6 .7 15.5 27.8 32.2 25. 4 21.9 246 37. 7 52.3 70.5 71. 0 77.5 97.3 108.5 103.6 110. 1 113.2 127.5 146.9 161.2 1 479. 9 1, 473. 4 1, 488. 2 I, 490. 6 925.5 922.8 933.4 941.6 161.4 161.3 166.4 164. 1 60.8 59. 1 58. 1 sae 15.4 18.4 7.6 -.7 36. 0 31.6 41. 1 42.2 1980: !_._. 1 501.9 II__. 1, 463. 3 III.. 1, 471. 9 IV*. 1, 486. 5 943.4 919.3 930.8 946.0 165. 0 156. 1 155. 5 156.1 542 43.1 44 7 50.8 Q L3 -5.0 -5.8 50. 1 51.7 57.6 49.7 Period 1970_ 1971. 1972. _ 1973 1974 1975_ 1976__ 19771978__ 1979. 1980* 1979: I— II— III._ IV__ Governinent pureliases of gooc j? and ser vices Change in busii^Tot ness in- export* Export? Imports ventories Final sales Total Federal State and local 66.6 69.3 76.7 81.8 80. 7 71.4 847 91. 3 103.0 109. 2 109.0 251. 1 250. 1 253. 1 253. 5 261.2 266.7 266.8 272.3 277.8 281.8 290.0 110.6 103.7 101.7 95.9 96.6 97.4 96. 8 100.7 99. 8 101.7 108.2 140. 5 146. 4 151.4 157.6 1645 169. 3 170.0 171. 6 178.0 180. 1 181.8 1, 081. 8 1, 114 3 1, 175. 7 1, 237. 8 1, 236. 4 1, 240. 6 1, 292. 7 1, 359. 3 1, 423. 0 1, 472. 9 1, 483. 5 141. 1 140.5 151.3 1548 105. 1 108.8 110.2 112. 6 280.6 280. 3 281. 1 285.3 102.9 100.8 99.9 103. 1 177.7 179.4 181.2 182.2 1, 464 4 1, 455. 0 1, 480. 6 1, 491. 3 165. 9 160.5 160.5 158. 1 115.8 108.9 102.8 108.3 290. 1 291.9 288.2 289.7 107.6 110.7 106.9 107. 6 182. 5 181.2 181. 3 182. 1 1, 502. 8 1, 462. 0 1, 476. 9 1, 492. 4 .L^Cl IMPLICIT PRICE DEFLATORS FOR GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT [1972=100; quarterly data are seasonally adjusted] Gross national product Period Persona1 consumption expe nditures Total Gross private dom estic investbment Nonres- ResiNon1^1 Durable durable Services idential dential fixed fixed goods T~\ Expor ts and imports of goods and sejrviees Governnlent purchases <)f goods and sc;rvices Exports Imports Federal State and local 1970 1971_ _ 1972 1973- __ 1974_ _ 1975_ __ 1976 19771978- _ 1979- . 1980 * _ _ _ 91.45 96. 01 100. 00 105. 69 _ 114 92 125. 56 132. 11 _ _ 139. 83 150. 05 _ _ _ 162. 77 177. 36 92.5 96.5 100.0 105.7 116. 3 125.2 131.6 139.5 149. 1 162.3 178.9 95.7 99.0 100.0 101.7 108.2 117.3 123.9 129.2 136.2 1448 156. 0 93. 6 96.6 100.0 108.3 123. 1 132. 1 137. 0 143.4 153.2 169.8 188.5 90.5 95. 6 100. 0 1047 113. 0 121.6 129.6 139. 9 150. 1 162. 1 178. 1 91.3 96.2 100.0 103.8 115. 4 132.2 138. 6 146.2 157.7 171.3 186.8 90.5 948 100.0 109. 1 120.3 131.0 140. 7 158.0 178.3 200. 5 218.5 93.2 97.0 100.0 112.7 134 7 149.6 155.2 161. 9 172.4 191. 5 211.0 88.6 93. 3 100.0 116.7 164 6 179.5 185. 5 205.4 214 0 245.4 289.9 86.6 92.7 100.0 106.3 114 9 126.0 133. 5 142. 9 153.7 165. 1 183.8 137. 146. 156. 169. 184 1979: I_ II III_ IV 158. 16 161. 17 164 23 167. 47 157. 1 160.2 163.8 168. 0 142. 0 143.9 145. 4 148. 0 162. 9 167.3 172. 1 176.9 157.7 159.9 163. 3 167.4 165. 5 169.2 173.4 176.8 191.9 198.4 204 6 207.7 183.7 189.9 193. 7 197.9 227.7 237.6 249. 8 265.2 160. 1 162.2 165.2 172.8 165. 1 168. 1 171. 3 174 7 1980: !___ _ _ 171. 23 II _ _ _ 175. 28 III 179. 18 IV » 183. 80 172.9 177.0 180.7 1849 151. 9 154 1 157.5 160. 5 182. 9 186.2 190. 0 195. 1 171.6 176.0 180. 3 1843 180.5 185.7 189. 1 192. 1 212. 6 217.4 221. 9 222.9 203.4 207.6 213. 4 219.8 2842 290.4 289. 7 295.9 176.5 179.5 182. 4 197. 1 179.1 182.8 186.7 190. 0 _ Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. 88. 6 94 7 100. 0 106. 9 117. 4 12S. 3 0 0 9 8 7 CHANGES IN GNP AND GNP PRICE MEASURES [Percent change from previous period; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted rates] Gross national p roduct Period 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980" 1979:1 II III IV 1980: I._ II III IV * Constant (1972) dollars Current dollars —_ - - — Implicit price deflator 2.8 _. 2 3.4 5.7 5.8 — .6 -1. 1 5.4 5.5 4.8 3.2 -.1 3.9 -1.7 4. 1 .6 3. 1 -9.9 2.4 4.0 8.1 5.2 8.6 10. 1 11.8 8. 1 8.0 10.9 11.6 12.4 12.0 8,8 12.7 5.9 12.2 8.8 12.6 -1. 1 11.8 15.2 Gross <domestic ] 3rodiict Fixedweighted price index (1972 weights) Chain price index 5. 1 5.4 5.0 4.2 5.7 8.7 9.3 5.2 5.8 7.3 8.5 9.0 8.4 7.8 7.8 8. 1 9.3 9.8 9.2 10.7 NOTE.—Annual changes are from previous year and quarterly changes are from previous quarter. 5. 1 5.4 4.9 4. 1 5.8 9.0 9. 1 5.7 6. 1 7.5 8.6 8.5 8.8 8.0 7.4 8.5 8.3 8.5 9.4 10.5 5. 1 5.2 4.8 4.0 5.8 9.3 9.0 5.7 6.3 7.6 9.2 9.4 9. 1 8.5 8.9 9.7 9.8 9. 1 9.2 10. 1 Constant (1972) dollars Current dollars Implicit price deflator 5.2 5.4 5.0 42 5.7 8.7 9.3 5.2 5.8 7.3 8.5 9.0 8.4 7.8 7.8 8. 1 9.3 9.8 9.2 10.7 2.8 -.2 3.3 5. 6 5.5 8.1 5.2 8.4 10.0 11.5 7.9 8.3 10.8 11.6 12.2 11.5 8.7 12. 1 5.8 11. 1 9.3 12.0 -.6 11.6 15.7 n -.9 5.3 5.4 4.6 2.8 2 3.4 -1.9 3.0 1.0 2.5 -9.4 2. 2 4.5 Chain price index 5. 1 5.4 4.9 4. 1 5.8 9.0 9. 1 5.7 6.2 7.5 8.7 8.5 8.8 ao 7.4 8.5 8.2 8.5 9.4 10.4 Fixedweighted price index (1972 weights) 5. 1 5.2 4.8 4.0 5.8 9.3 9.0 5.7 6.3 7.6 9.2 9.4 9.2 8.5 8.9 9.7 9.8 9. 1 9.2 10. 1 Data for chain price and fixed-weighted price indexes are subject to revision. Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. NONFINANCIAL CORPORATE BUSINESS—OUTPUT, COSTS, AND PROFITS [Quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Period Gross d omestic prodiict of nonfin ancial corpcjrate busi ness (billic>ns of doll ars) Current dollars 1972 dollars 544. 1 1969 563.7 1970 609.9 1971 678.0 1972 759.4 1973 818.9 1974 890.0 1975 1, 001. 3 1976 1, 129. 5 1977 1, 270. 7 1978 1, 417. 0 1979 1, 533. 3 1980* 1, 378. 7 1979: I II. __ 1, 399. 5 III__ 1, 432. 1 IV_._ 1, 457. 7 1, 502. 1 1980: I !!___ 1, 496. 3 IIIi'. 1,537.7 604.0 599.6 626.8 678.0 731.9 708. 2 694.2 745.5 799.0 845. 1 873.3 866.2 874.7 870.8 874.3 873.4 878.2 853.2 860.4 Current-do lar cost and profit 3er unit of outpu t (dollars] Total cost and profit 2 0.901 .940 .973 1.000 1. 038 1. 156 1.282 1.343 1.414 1.504 1. 623 1.771 1.576 1.607 1. 638 1.669 1.710 1.754 1.787 Capital consumption Comallowpenances Indirect sation business with 3 of capital taxes employconees sumption adjustment 0.078 .087 .091 . 092 .093 . 112 . 137 . 141 . 146 . 153 . 169 . 191 . 161 . 168 . 172 .175 . 180 . 192 . 196 0.096 . 106 . 113 . 113 . 114 .127 . 140 . 141 . 144 . 148 . 153 . 176 . 150 . 151 . 154 .157 . 161 . 173 . 181 * Output is measured by gross domestic product of nonfinancial corporate business in 1972 dollars. 2 This is equal to the deflator for gross domestic product of nonfinancial corporate business with the decimal point shifted two places to the left. a Indirect business tax and nontax liability plus business transfer payments less subsidies. Net interest 1 Corpc>rate profi ts with invent ory valuaition and capil,al consun iption iidjustmen ts Total 0.594 0.022 0. 112 .028 .631 .088 .641 . 029 .099 .028 . 659 . 107 .692 .031 .107 .042 .786 .090 . 044 . 124 .837 .878 .040 . 144 . 924 . 042 . 158 .044 .996 . 163 1. 092 . 052 . 157 .065 . 141 1. 197 1.052 .047 . 167 .050 1.079 . 159 1. 104 .053 . 154 . 056 . 146 1. 135 1. 158 .060 . 151 .064 1. 193 . 132 1.203 . 141 .067 Profits tax liability 0.055 .045 .047 . 049 . 055 .059 .059 .071 .074 .080 .080 .071 . 081 .079 .081 .078 .085 .061 .070 Profits after4 tax 0.057 .043 .052 .058 .053 .030 .065 .073 . 084 .083 .077 .070 .086 .080 . 074 .067 .066 .071 .071 CompenOutput sation per hour per of all hour employ- of all ees employ(1972 ees dollars) (dollars) 7. 098 7. 126 7. 467 7. 688 7. 891 7. 622 7. 881 8. 132 8.348 8. 384 8.373 8.398 8. 396 8. 396 8. 372 8. 321 8.345 8.335 8.474 4.213 4. 498 4. 788 5. 068 5.458 5. 989 6. 596 7. 138 7. 713 8. 347 9. 147 10. 055 8. 830 9.062 9.243 9.443 9. 667 9.945 10. 192 * With inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments. Sources: Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis) and Department of Labor (Bureau of Labor Statistics). NATIONAL INCOME [Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] National income Period Propr ietors' incom e with inventor y valuation anc l capital consul nption adjust ments Compensation of employ-1 ees Farm 1970_ 1971 1972_ 1973 1974_ 1975 1976 19771978 1979_ 1980 *___ 1979: I II III IV 1980: I II III IV* 810.7 871.5 963. 6 1, 086. 2 1, 160. 7 1, 239. 4 _ _ _ 1, 379. 2 1, 546. 5 1, 745. 4 1, 963. 3 _ ___ 2, 119. 5 1, 903. 6 1, 932. 0 1, 986. 2 __ 2, 031. 3 2, 088. 5 2, 070. 0 2, 122. 4 _ 14.3 15. 0 18.7 32.8 26.5 24.6 19. 1 18.4 26. 1 30.8 23.4 30.9 32.6 30.2 29. 5 25.7 23.3 22. 1 22.6 612.0 652.2 718.0 801.3 877.5 931.4 1, 036. 3 1, 152. 3 1, 299. 7 1, 460. 9 1, 596. 5 1, 409. 9 1, 439. 0 1, 476. 7 1, 518. 1 1, 558. 0 1, 569. 0 1, 597. 4 1, 661. 6 Nonfarm 51.9 544 58. 1 61.0 62.2 65.4 75.0 85. 1 91.0 100.7 107.2 96.8 96.8 102.7 106.8 107.9 101.6 107.6 111.8 »Includes employer contributions for social insurance. (See also p. 5.) Rental of persons with capital consumption adjustment 19.7 20.2 21.0 22. 6 23.5 23.0 23. 5 25. 1 27.4 30.5 31. 8 30.7 30. 1 30.3 31.0 31.2 31.5 32.0 32.4 Corpor ate profits3 with inventory va luation and capital co nsumptioia adjustm ents Profits 5 with inv entory valualbion adjus tment and iwithout cai-pital consum ption adjiistment Total Total 71.4 83.2 96. 6 108.3 94.9 110. 5 138. 1 164.7 185.5 196.8 180.7 201.9 196.6 199.5 189.4 200.2 169.3 177.9 68.9 82.0 94.0 105. 6 96.7 120.6 151.6 176.7 199.0 212.7 197.8 217.8 213.0 215.6 204.5 215. 6 186.9 195.9 Profits before tax Inventory valuation adjustment 75.4 86.6 100.6 125.6 136.7 132. 1 166.3 192. 6 223.3 255.4 241.8 253. 1 250. 9 262.0 255.4 277. 1 217.9 237.6 -6.6 -4.6 -6.6 20.0 -40. 0 -11.6 -14.7 -15.8 -24.3 -42.6 -43.9 -35.3 -37.9 -46.5 -50.8 -61. 4 -31.1 -41.7 -41.4 Capital consumption adjustment Net interest 2.5 1.3 2.7 2.7 -1.8 -10. 1 -13.5 -12.0 -13. 5 -15.9 -17.2 -15.9 -16.4 -16. 1 -15. 1 -15.4 -17.6 -17.9 -17.8 41.4 46.5 51.2 60.2 76.1 845 87.2 100.9 115.8 143. 4 179.9 133.4 136.9 146.8 156.5 165.4 175.3 185.3 193.6 Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES [Billions of dollars, except as noted; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Durable goo<is Period Total personal consumption Total expendi- durable goods 1 tures Motor vehicles and parts 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980" 621.7 672.2 737. 1 812.0 888.1 976.4 1, 084 3 1, 205. 5 1, 348. 7 1, 510. 9 1, 672. 3 85.2 97.2 111. 1 123.3 121.5 132.2 156.8 178.8 199.3 212. 3 211.9 36.2 45.4 52.4 57.1 50.4 55.8 72.6 85.0 1979: I II III__. IV 1, 454 1 1, 478. 0 1, 529. 1 1, 582. 3 212.5 207.4 213. 3 216.1 100. 1 91.7 1, 631. 0 1980: I II 1, 626. 8 III... 1, 682. 2 220.9 1944 208.8 223.4 100.6 77.5 87.0 94.5 rvx_. 1, 749. 2 943 95.5 89.9 947 95.4 i Total includes other items not shown separately. Retail sales of new pa ssenger cars(nmillions of u nits) Nondura :>le goods Furniture and household equipment 35.2 37.2 41.7 47. 1 50. 6 53.5 59. 1 65.8 72.9 81.1 Total nondurable goods l Food Clothing Gasoline Services and and oil shoes 138.9 1442 154 9 172. 1 193.7 213.6 230.6 250. 3 276.4 312. 1 345.5 46.8 50.6 55.4 61.4 64.8 69.6 75. 3 82. 1 91.9 98.9 1048 22.4 23.9 25.4 28.6 36.6 40.4 846 265.7 278.8 300.6 333. 4 373.4 407.3 441.7 479. 0 529.8 602.2 675.4 78.0 80. 1 82.4 83.8 571.8 586.4 611.5 639.2 299. 1 306.0 3143 329.0 83.6 81.3 661. 1 664 0 6742 702.2 336.2 338.4 347.7 359.7 846 89.0 Do- Immes- ports tics 48.2 52.7 68.4 89.0 270.8 296.2 325.3 355.2 393.2 437.0 485 7 547.7 619.6 696.3 785.1 7.1 8.7 9.3 9.6 7.4 7.0 8.5 9.0 9.2 8.2 6.6 95.8 97.0 100.3 102.5 60.6 63.2 72. 1 77.6 669.9 6842 7043 727.0 9. 1 7.9 8.5 7.4 2.3 2.4 2.2 2.4 102.2 102.3 105.3 109.3 89.4 90.9 85.3 90.2 749.0 768.4 799.2 823.7 7.9 5.5 6.5 6.7 2.9 2.1 2.3 2.5 440 Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. 1.3 1.6 1.6 1.8 1.4 1.6 1.5 2. 1 2.0 2.3 2.4 SOURCES OF PERSONAL INCOME Personal income rose $21.3 billion (annual rate) in January following a rise of $19.7 billion in December. The increase in January was affected by two special factors: an increase in the minimum wage added about $2.0 billion to wages and salaries and an increase in the social security tax rate and taxable wage base added about $8.8 billion to personal contributions for social insurance—an item that is deducted in calculating total personal income. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS*(RATIO SCALE) BILLIONS OF DOLLARS*(RATIO SCALE) 2,800 2,800 2,400 2,400 2,000 2,000 1,600 1,600 1,400 1,400 1,200 1,200 WAGE AND SALARY DISBURSEMENTS 1,000 1,000 800 800 600 600 OTHER INCOME 400 400 Ju-—" TRANSFER PAYMENTS \ 200 200 160 160 120 120 100 100 80 1974 1973 1975 1977 1976 1978 1979 * SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE Period 80 1980 1981 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Billions of dollars; monthly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Wage Rental Personal Personal Transfer Other Proprietc >rs' income 3 income Total and paydividend interest labor 1 2 personal salary of income disburseincome Farm Nonfarm persons 4 income income ments ° 1 ments Less: PerNonsonal confarm tributions personal for social income 6 insurance 48.8 55.8 64.5 75.9 89.0 102.2 118.6 137. 1 32.8 26.5 24.6 19. 1 18.4 26. 1 30.8 23.4 61.0 62.2 65.4 75.0 85. 1 91.0 100.7 107.2 22. 6 23.5 23.0 23.5 25. 1 27.4 30.5 31.8 26.5 29. 1 29.9 36.5 38.7 43. 1 48.6 54.4 93.9 112.4 123.2 132.5 151.6 173.2 209.6 256.2 119.5 141.2 178.3 194.3 207.5 223.3 249.4 294.2 42.6 47. 9 50.4 55.5 61. 1 69.6 80.6 87.9 1, 023. 7 1, 131. 8 1, 229. 1 1, 359. 3 1, 505. 0 1, 679. 2 1, 892. 9 2, 112.6 1, 306. 1 1, 315. 0 1, 322. 9 1, 317. 8 1, 320. 1 1, 323. 2 1, 326. 3 1, 342. 4 1, 356. 8 1, 381. 7 1, 400. 4 1, 410. 9 129. 1 130.8 132.6 133.8 135.0 136.3 137. 7 139. 1 140.4 141.9 143. 5 145.0 27.6 25.2 24.4 23.8 23.3 22.8 22.4 22.0 21.9 22. 1 22.4 23.2 109.5 108.2 106. 1 102.7 101.0 101.0 105. 1 106. 3 111.4 111.5 111.5 112.2 31.4 30.8 31.4 31.6 31.3 31.6 31. 8 32.0 32.2 32.3 32.4 32.5 51.6 52.4 53.2 53.7 54. 1 54.7 54.7 55.2 55.4 55.5 55. 9 56.7 235.2 240.0 244.5 248.3 253.7 258.9 260.4 261.7 263.2 265.6 269. 1 273.5 272.7 270.4 271.9 275.9 281.4 284.6 309.7 309. 0 313.4 313.8 313.2 314.6 86. 1 86.4 86.2 85.6 85.8 86.2 87.0 88.3 89. 1 90.4 91.4 91.9 2, 027. 4 2, 038. 3 2, 053. 1 2, 054. 7 2, 067. 0 2, 080. 3 2, 114. 5 2, 132. 7 2, 158. 7 2, 186. 8 2, 209. 4 2, 228. 2 1981: Jan*___ 2, 298. 1 1, 431. 2 146. 6 23.3 113. 7 32.5 57.4 278.5 316.7 101. 7 2, 249. 1 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980* 1, 065. 2 702.7 1, 168. 6 765.7 806.4 1, 265. 0 889.9 ._ 1, 391. 2 983.8 1, 538. 0 1, 721. 8 1, 105. 2 1, 943. 8 1, 236. 1 2, 160. 2 1, 343. 6 2, 077. 2 1980: Jan Feb 2, 086. 4 2, 101. 0 Mar 2, 102. 1 Apr 2, 114. 1 May 2, 127. 1 June July___ 2, 161. 2 2, 179. 4 Aug Sept___ 2, 205. 7 Oct 2, 234. 2 Nov___ 2, 257. 1 Dec *-- 2, 276. 8 1 The total of wage and salary disbursements and other labor income differs from compensation of employees (see p. 4) in that it excludes employer contributions for social insurance and the excess of wage accruals over wage disbursements. 2 Consists of employer contributions to private pension, health, and welfare funds; workmen's compensation; directors' fees; and a few other minor items. 3 With inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments. 4 With capital consumption adjustment. * Consists mainly of social insurance benefits, direct relief, and veterans payments. 6 Personal income exclusive of farm proprietors' income, farm wages, farm other labor income, and agricultural net interest. Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. DISPOSITION OF PERSONAL INCOME Real per capita disposable income rose again in the fourth quarter. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE) BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE) 2,200 2,000 4,000 3,000 3,000 1973 1981 * SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE Less: p«_ irersonal tax Personal and income nontax payments Period Equals: Disposable personal income COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS Less: Personal outlays 1 Equals: Personal saving Per c apita dispc sable personal income Current dollars 951.4 1, 065. 2 1, 168. 6 _ 1, 265. 0 1, 391. 2 1, 538. 0 1, 721. 8 1, 943. 8 2, 160. 2 141.0 150.7 170.2 168. 9 196.8 226. 5 258.8 302.0 338.6 810.3 914.5 998. 3 1, 096. 1 1, 194. 4 1, 311. 5 1, 462. 9 1, 641. 7 1, 821. 6 Current dollars 1972 dollars Dol lars Billions of d ollars 1972 1973 1974 1975___ 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980* 1972 dollars Per cap ita personal ccmsumption exp enditures 757.7 835.5 913. 2 1, 001. 8 1, 111. 9 1, 237. 5 1, 386. 6 1, 555. 5 1, 719. 8 52. 6 79.0 85. 1 94. 3 82.5 74. 1 76.3 86.2 101.8 3,880 4,346 4,710 5, 132 5,550 6,046 6,688 7,441 8, 176 3,880 4, 112 4,050 4, 101 4,216 4,332 4,487 4,584 4,571 3,529 3,858 4,190 4,572 5,038 5,557 6, 166 6,848 7,506 3,529 3,652 3,603 3,653 3,828 3,982 4, 136 4,219 4, 196 Percent change Saving in real as percent of per capita disposable disposperable sonal perincome sonal income Per cent 3. 1 6.0 -1.5 1.3 2.8 2.8 3.6 2. 2 -.3 Population (thousands) * 6.5 8.6 8.5 8.6 6.9 5.6 5. 2 5.2 5.6 208, 210, 211, 213, 215, 216, 218, 220, 222, 873 440 945 566 203 928 749 643 808 5.3 5.6 5.4 4.7 219, 220, 220, 221, 896 335 884 455 4.9 6. 2 6. 1 5.2 221, 222, 223, 223, 938 447 126 721 Seas onally ad. Justed ann ual rates 1979: !____ !!___ III. IV.. 1, 864. 6 1, 906. 3 1, 972. 3 2, 032. 0 284.4 293.5 308.4 321.8 1, 580. 2 1, 612. 8 1, 663. 8 1, 710. 1 1, 496. 3 1, 521. 9 1, 574. 5 1, 629. 4 83. 8 90. 9 89.3 80.7 7,186 7,320 7,533 7,722 4,574 4,570 4,598 4,596 6,613 6,708 6, 923 7, 145 4,209 4, 188 4,226 4,252 1980: !____ 2, 088. 2 323. 1 1, 765. 1 1, 678. 7 86.4 110.0 111.4 99.5 7, 953 8,020 8,249 8,478 4,600 4,532 4, 565 4,585 7,349 7,313 7, 539 7,819 4,251 4, 133 4, 172 4,228 !!___ 2, 114. 5 330.3 1, 784. 1 1, 674. 1 III__ 2, 182. 1 341.5 1, 840. 6 1, 729. 2 IV P_ 2, 256. 0 359.3 1, 896. 7 1, 797. 2 1 Includes personal consumption expenditures, interest paid by consumers to business, and personal transfer payments to foreigners (net). 2 Includes Armed Forces abroad. Annual data are averages of quarterly data, which are averages for the period. Since data based on the 1980 census are now 2. 4 -.3 2.5 -. 2 .3 -5. 8 2.9 1.8 available only beginning April 1980, estimates here continue to be based on the 1970 census. Source: Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis and Bureau of the Census). FARM INCOME In the fourth quarter, according to revised estimates, gross farm income rose $4,0 billion (annual rate) and net farm income rose $0.7 billion from third quarter levels. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE) BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE) 200 I 200 100 100 GROSS FARM INCOME 80 80 60 60 40 40 NET FARM INCOME ' 20 20 10 10 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 * SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE [Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Income of farm operators from farming Grc>ss farm incc>me Period Net farni income Cash imarketing rejceipts Total l Total Livestock and products Crops Value of inventory2 changes Production expenses Current dollars 1967 dollars 3 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 9 98.9 98.3 100.3 101. 8 108. 1 126.9 149. 6 153.8 87. 1 92.4 88.2 94.8 95.8 112.5 131.5 140.3 45.9 41.4 43. 0 46. 1 47.4 59.0 68.6 69.0 41. 1 51. 1 45. 1 48.7 48.3 53.5 62.8 71.3 3.4 -1.6 3.4 2.4 .6 .4 4. 1 -2.0 65.6 72.2 75.9 83. 1 90.3 100. 8 118.6 132. 1 33.3 26. 1 24.5 18. 7 17.8 26. 1 31. 0 21.7 25. 1 17.7 15.2 11.0 9.8 13.3 14.3 8.8 1979: I II III IV 145.5 149.1 149.9 154. 1 128.9 130.9 130.6 135.4 69.7 68.2 66.9 69.7 59.2 62.7 63.7 65.7 3.2 3.9 5.4 3.9 114.2 116.3 119.6 124.2 31.3 32.8 30.3 29.9 15.1 15.3 13.7 13. 1 152.7 149.2 154.8 158.8 137.0 135.8 142.8 145.8 67.9 65.6 70.5 72.5 69.0 70.2 72.3 73.3 .9 -1.8 -3.7 -3.3 127.4 130.4 133.6 136.9 25.3 18.8 21.2 21.9 10.7 7.7 8.5 8.5 1980: I II III IV 9 __. 1 Cash marketing receipts and inventory changes plus Government payments, other farm cash income, and nonmoney income furnished by farms. 2 Physical changes in end-of-year inventory of crop and livestock commodities valued at average prices during the year. 3 Income in current dollars divided by the consumer price index (Department of Labor). NOTE.—Data revised for 1980. Source: Department of Agriculture, except as noted. CORPORATE PROFITS In the third quarter of 1980, corporate profits before tax rose $19.7 billion (annual rate) while after-tax profits rose $12.6 billion. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 320 BU1IONS OF DOLLARS 320 280 120 120 80 80 40 40 1981 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE [Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Profits after tax >ry valu£ition Profii bs (before tax) wit a inventc adjustn nent 1 Dome ptie indu stries Is f onfinan cial Period Total * 1970 1971 1972__ 1973__ _ 1974 1975_ _ __ ___ 1976 1977. _ __ 1978 1979 1980* _ 1979: I II III__ __ IV 1980: I II _._ Ill IV*__. 68.9 82.0 94.0 105.6 96.7 120. 6 151.6 176.7 199. 0 212.7 197.8 217.8 213. 0 215.6 204. 5 215. 6 186.9 195.9 Total 62.4 74. 9 85.3 92.0 80.4 107.6 137.4 161.2 179.3 182.4 166.5 191.7 184. 4 180.5 172.9 179.0 157.5 165.0 ManuFinancial Total1 facturmg 12. 1 14. 1 15. 3 15.9 15.0 11.8 17. 1 23.5 29.3 31.6 30.2 31. 3 31.0 31.5 32. 6 33.3 30. 1 28.7 50.2 60. 8 70.0 76.0 65.4 95.8 120.3 137.7 150.0 150.8 136.2 160.4 153. 4 149.0 140.3 145.7 127.5 136.2 26.6 34. 1 40.7 45.5 39.0 52.6 69. 2 76.2 85.3 88. 9 9.5 11. 7 13.4 13.9 12. 5 21.3 22. 4 27.0 24.5 23. 0 99.4 91.5 84.4 80.2 92. 1 61. 3 68.5 21.0 22. 9 25. 6 22.6 14.8 25. 9 20.4 1 See p. 4 for profits with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments. *Includes rest of the world, not shown separately. 8 Wholesale and retail trade Profits before tax Tax liability 75.4 86.6 100.6 125. 6 136.7 132. 1 166. 3 192.6 223. 3 255. 4 241.8 253. 1 250. 9 262.0 255.4 277. 1 217.9 237.6 34.2 37.5 41.6 49.0 51. 6 50.6 63.8 72.6 83.0 87. 6 80.7 88.5 86.4 88.4 87.2 94.2 71.5 78.5 Total Dividends Undistributed profits 41.3 49. 0 58.9 76.6 85. 1 81.5 102.5 120.0 140. 3 167.8 161. 1 164.6 164.6 173.6 168.2 182. 9 146.5 159. 1 22.5 22.9 24.4 27.0 29.9 30.8 37.4 39.9 44. 6 50.2 56. 0 49. 0 49.8 50.2 51. 6 53.9 55.7 56.7 57. 7 18.8 26. 1 34.5 49.6 55. 2 50.7 65. 1 80. 1 95.7 117. 6 105.1 115.5 114.8 123.5 116.6 128.9 90. 7 102.4 »Includes industries not shown separately. Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. Inventory valuation adjustment -6.6 -4.6 -6.6 -20.0 — 40. 0 -11.6 -14.7 -15. 8 -24.3 —42. 6 -43.9 -35.3 -37.9 —46. 5 -50.8 -61.4 -31. 1 -41.7 -41.4 GROSS PRIVATE DOMESTIC INVESTMENT According to revised estimates for the fourth quarter, business fixed investment rose $6.0 billion (annual rate) as nonresidential construction outlays rose $3.2 billion and producers* durable equipment purchases increased $2.7 billion. Residential investment outlays rose $14.1 billion. There was a $15.2 billion reduction of inventories following a $16.0 billion reduction in the third quarter. IMILLIONS OF DO1.LARS BILLIC)NS OF DOLLARS 500 500 SEAS>ONALLY ADJUSTED >ANNUAL RATES 450 350 400 v^^x ^N^ nc ^^^^ ^^\ GROSS PRIVATE DOMES* INVESTMENT \ ^r / 350 OftA > 250 *—s 250 \^' +" *^ S**^ /^ k 200 NONRK IDENTIAL ^, FIXED IN>/ESTMENT,^^ x^ _x**N ^ "^ **** 200 ^* 150 * RESIPENTIA . FIXED INVESTS ENT—^^,-.-- 100 ^.....^m* —-«—....»,. V—^-^ 0 i i i I I 1 1974 1973 100 CH ANGE IN BUSINESS INVENTORIES *"**^r*i* tm* I-********* 50 50 .«. ---.-» »»**i'"i""i*t*««««,........« X-^^, \ 1 I ! I X ""'1 ! I 1976 1975 50 •*"*""X, I I i i 1978 1977 i i 1979 o X...... 1 1 i 1980 1 1 I -50 1981 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE [Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Nonresidential fixed PprinH tic investment 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980* 1979:1 II III IV 1980:1 II III IV * investmenl Gross private domes- _ 1442 166.4 195.0 229.8 228.7 206.1 257.9 322.3 375.3 415.8 395.4 408.3 423.2 421.7 410.0 415.6 390.9 377.1 398.1 Total 103.9 107.9 121.0 143.3 156.6 157.7 174. 1 205.5 242.0 279.7 295.4 267.3 272.9 288.5 290.2 297.8 289. 8 294.0 300.0 Structures Producers' durable equipment 38.7 40.5 44. 1 51.0 55.9 55.4 58.8 64. 6 78.7 96.3 108.6 87.3 93.2 99.6 105. 1 108.2 108.4 107.3 110.5 65.2 67.4 76.9 92.3 100.7 102.3 115.3 140.9 163.3 183.4 186.8 179.9 179.7 189.0 185. 1 189.7 181.4 186.8 189.5 Re sidential fh[ed investatent Total 37.1 50.9 63.8 68. 0 57.9 55.3 72.0 95.8 111.2 118.6 105.3 116.7 117.2 119.8 120.6 115.2 93.6 99.2 113.3 Nonfarm structures 35.4 48. 9 61.5 65.6 54.8 52.4 68.8 91.9 106.9 113. 9 100.3 112.5 112. 9 114.9 115.4 110. 1 88.9 94.5 107.9 Jcarm structures 0.6 .7 .7 .7 1.3 1.0 1. 1 1. 5 1.8 1.8 2.0 1.6 1.6 2.0 2.3 2.2 1.8 1.7 2.2 Producers' durable equipment 1. 1 1.3 1. 5 1.7 1.8 1.9 2. 1 2.3 2.6 2.9 3.0 2.7 2.8 2.9 3.0 3.0 2.9 3.0 3. 1 Change in business invrentories TYitfll 3.2 7.7 10.2 18.5 14. 1 -6.9 11.8 21.0 22.2 17.5 -5.3 24.3 33. 1 13.3 -.8 2.5 7.4 -iao -15.2 Nonfarm 3. 1 6.4 9.6 15.2 16.0 -10.5 13.9 20.2 21.8 13.4 -4. 1 20.8 29.2 7.8 -4.4 1.5 6. 1 -12.3 -11.7 Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. 9 EXPENDITURES FOR NEW PLANT AND EQUIPMENT—NONFARM BUSINESS Nonfarm business spending for new plant and equipment for the year 1981 is expected to be 10.8 percent above 1980, according to the Commerce Department annual November-December survey. Expenditures in 1980 were 8.8 percent higher than in 1979, according to preliminary figures released in December. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS (RATIO SCALE) 500 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS (RATIO SCALE) 500 SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES 400 400 300 300 200 200 TOTAL NEW PLANT AND EQUIPMENT 100 100 80 80 ..««.».. »'**x \ MANUFACTURING 60 60 40 40 30 30 1973 1974 1977 1976 1975 1978 1979 1980 1981 J/ SEE FOOTNOTE 4 BELOW. SOURCE! DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE [Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Plant and equi pment Matfiufaetu]ing Period Total Plant Equipment Dur- 1973_ _ _ 1974 1975___ 1976 1977_ _ _ 1978 1979 1980 44 1981 _ _ _ 1979: IIIIV__ 1980: !___ II__ III.. 4 137. 70 156. 98 157. 71 171. 45 198. 08 231. 24 270. 46 294. 30 326. 13 273. 15 284. 30 291. 89 294. 36 296. 23 IV _ 294. 95 1981: 1 44__ 310. 59 II . 323. 84 56.66 64.29 81.04 92. 69 92.50 65.21 71.20 80.31 92. 70 105. 73 100. 25 117. 77 138. 54 164. 73 106. 58 108. 60 115. 96 116. 50 117. 59 166. 56 175. 70 175. 93 177. 86 178. 64 Nondur- Total able goods able goods 42.37 22.75 27.44 19.62 95.33 25.76 103. 78 53.21 54.92 59.95 69.22 79.72 98. 68 114. 90 131. 12 100. 11 106. 57 111. 77 115. 69 116. 40 115. 37 122. 69 130. 57 26. 33 28.47 34. 04 40.43 51.07 58.25 66.00 52. 13 55.03 58.28 59.38 58. 19 57.42 60.23 65.36 28. 59 102. 79 31.47 111. 50 35. 18 128. 87 39.29 151. 52 47.61 171. 77 56.65 179. 40 65. 12 195. 00 47.97 173. 04 51. 55 177. 73 53.49 180. 13 56.32 178. 66 58.21 179. 83 57.96 179. 58 62.46 187. 90 65.21 193. 27 1 Wholesale and retail trade; finance, insurance, and real estate; and personal, business, and professional services. 2 "Other" consists of construction; social services and membership organizations; and forestry, fisheries, and agricultural services. 10 Starts of plant and equipment ComTrade muni- projects, manufacTrans- Public and 3 Total Mining porta- utilities serv- cation turing and tion ices * other 2 ]^onmamifacturin g 3.31 4.62 6. 10 7.44 9. 24 10.21 11.38 13. 50 16.04 11.40 11.86 11.89 12.81 13.86 15.25 16.07 18.02 7.41 8.23 8.68 8. 89 9. 40 10.68 12.35 11.98 12. 96 12.67 13.20 12.47 12.09 12.23 11.25 11.50 11.60 17.97 19.83 19.98 22.37 26. 79 29.95 33.96 34.62 37.64 35.05 34.08 36.26 35.03 35.58 31.95 36.78 36.21 45.53 47.79 46.23 49. 30 56.54 68.66 79.26 82.28 87. 83 78.86 82.69 82. 17 81.07 81. 19 84.87 84.09 87. 43 21. 12 23.30 21. 80 23.51 26.90 32.02 34.83 37.02 40. 54 35.05 35.90 37.34 37.66 36.97 36.26 39.48 40.01 53.21 61.24 56.51 59.38 77.40 88. 16 112. 98 26. 82 32.53 32.43 29.41 27.74 « Starts are estimated by adding changes in carryover to expenditures during given period. « Planned capital expenditures as reported by business in late October-December 1980, corrected for biases. Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. EMPLOYMENT, UNEMPLOYMENT, AND WAGES STATUS OF THE LABOR FORCE Seasonally adjusted employment rose 414,000 in January while unemployment was up 62,000. MILLIONS OF PERSONS* 110 MILLIONS OF PERSONS 110 1981 1973 *16 YEARS OF AGE AND OVER. SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR Period COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Thousands3 of persoiis 16 years of age and over, except as noted] Unempl ayment Civilian eimploymerit Total Noninlabor Nonagri cultural 15 stituforce Civilian Civilian UnemPart-time Total weeks Agritional employ- ploy- (includ- labor Total ecoculand populament ing ment force Total for nomic l over tural Armed tion reasons Forces) 84, 783 87, 485 90, 546 94, 373 96, 945 97, 270 3,380 3,297 3,244 3,342 3,297 3,310 104, 208 104, 271 104, 171 104, 427 105, 060 104, 591 105, 020 104, 945 104, 980 105, 167 105, 285 105, 067 97, 708 97, 817 97, 628 97, 225 97, 116 96, 780 96, 999 97, 003 97, 180 97, 206 97, 339 97, 282 3,287 3,329 3,337 3,262 3,352 3,232 3,267 3,210 3,399 3,319 3,340 3,394 94, 421 94, 488 94, 291 93, 963 93, 764 93, 548 93, 732 93, 793 93, 781 93, 887 93, 999 93, 888 8,543 107, 668 105, 543 97, 696 3,403 94, 294 153, 156, 158, 161, 163, 166, 1980: Jan.. Feb__ Mar__ Apr__ MayJune. July _ Aug__ Sept _ Oct.. Nov. Dec.. 165, 101 165, 298 165, 506 165, 693 165, 886 166, 105 166, 391 166, 578 166, 789 167, 005 167, 201 167, 396 96, 145 96, 264 96, 546 96, 566 96, 709 97, 776 98, 587 98, 115 97, 256 97, 933 97, 801 97, 545 7,043 6,993 6,805 6,846 7,318 8,291 8,410 8,011 7,464 7,482 7,486 7,233 1981: Jan. _ 167, 585 96, 128 449 048 559 058 620 246 84, 783 87, 485 90, 546 94, 373 96, 945 97, 270 106, 289 106, 357 106, 261 106, 519 107, 148 106, 683 107, 119 107, 059 107, 101 107, 288 107, 404 107, 191 Persons at work. Economic reasons include slack work, material shortages, inability to find full-time work, etc. 2 Total labor force as percent of noninstitutional population 16 years of age and over. *Data beginning 1978 not strictly comparable with earlier data because of 3,490 3,272 3, 297 3,216 3,281 3,965 7,830 7,288 6,855 6,047 5,963 7,448 2,483 2,340 1,911 1,379 1,202 1,829 61.8 62. 1 62.8 63.7 64.2 64.3 3,549 3,454 3,470 3,803 4,276 3,969 4,086 4,143 4,183 4,220 4,176 4,218 6,500 6, 454 6, 543 7,202 7,944 7,811 8,021 7,942 7,800 7,961 7,946 7,785 1,319 1,299 1,391 1,599 1, 686 1,777 1,935 2, 150 2,295 2,292 2,329 2,378 64.4 64.3 64.2 64. 3 64.6 64.2 64.4 64.3 64.2 64.2 64.2 64.0 4,474 7,847 2,358 64.2 Seas(snally adj usted Uiaadjusted 1 81, 403 84, 188 87, 302 91, 031 93, 648 93, 960 7,830 94, 793 92, 613 7,288 96, 917 94, 773 6,855 99, 534 97, 401 6,047 102, 537 100, 420 5,963 104, 996 102, 908 7,448 106, 821 104, 719 1975 1976 1977 1978* 1979 1980 Labor *force _ participation rate (per-2 4.\ 2 cent) revisions in the household survey, which added about 250,000 to labor force and to employment. Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. 11 SELECTED UNEMPLOYMENT RATES In January the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate was 7.4 percent, the same as in December. PERCENT* (SEASONALLY ADJUSTED)! PERCENT* (SEASONALLY ADJUSTED) 10! 1980 * UNEMPLOYMENT AS PERCENT OF CIVILIAN LABOR FORCE IN GROUP SPECIFIED. SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR 1981 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Monthly data seasonally adjusted] Total Period (all civilian workers) 1975 1976 1977. 1978 1979 1980 . 1980: Jan fc Feb Mar Apr May June July. Aug Sept.. Oct Nov Dec 1981: Jan Unernployme nt rate ( percent <>f civiliaii labor f<orce in giroup) ]3y select ed group s B y gsex and t^ge By race Women Both 20 sexes years years 16-19 and and years over over White Men 20 8.5 7.7 7.0 6.0 5.8 7.1 6.7 5.9 5.2 4.2 4. 1 5.9 8.0 7.4 7.0 6.0 5.7 6.3 19.9 19.0 17.7 16.3 16. 1 17.7 7.8 7.0 6.2 5.2 5.1 6.3 13.9 13.1 13. 1 11.9 11.3 13.2 8.2 7.3 6.6 5.6 5.4 6.8 6.2 6.2 6.3 6.9 7.6 7.5 7.6 7.6 7.4 7.6 7.5 7.4 4.8 4.7 5.0 5.8 6.4 6.4 6.6 6.5 6.6 6.4 6.4 6.2 5.8 5.8 5.8 6.2 6.5 6.4 6.6 6.5 6.2 6.7 6.7 6.8 16.5 16.6 16.2 16.4 18.9 5.5 5.4 5.5 18.3 18.7 18.8 17.8 18.5 18.6 17.8 6.8 6.7 6.8 6.7 6.5 6.6 6.6 6.5 11.9 11.7 11.9 12. 6 13.6 13.5 13.9 13.7 14. 1 14.2 14.0 14.0 5.9 5.9 6.0 6.6 7.4 7.3 7.4 7.4 7.2 7.3 7.2 7.1 7.4 6.0 6.7 19.0 6.7 12.9 7. 1 * Aggregate hours lost by the unemployed and persons on part-time for economic reasons as percent of potentially available labor force hours. 12 ExpeFullBlack rienced time wage Household and and other salary heads workers workers 6. 1 Labor force time lost Part(per-l time work- cent) ers 8.1 7.3 6.5 5.5 5.3 6.8 10.3 10. 1 9.1 8.3 7.6 6.5 6.3 7.9 4.3 4.8 5.2 5.2 5.3 5.3 5.3 5.2 5.2 5.1 5.8 5.8 5.9 6.5 7.3 7.2 7.4 7.3 7.3 7.3 7.4 7.3 8.7 8.8 8.4 8.8 9.0 8.8 8.8 8.7 8.7 6.7 6.6 6.8 7.6 8.6 8.2 as 5. 1 7. 1 9.2 8.2 5.8 5. 1 4.5 3.7 3.6 4.9 4.2 4. 1 Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. 9.8 9.0 8.7 8.7 9. 1 ae 8. 1 8.4 8.3 &2 8.4 8.2 SELECTED MEASURES OF UNEMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT INSURANCE PROGRAMS In January the percentage of unemployed persons who were job losers fell, while the percentage who were job leavers, reentrants, and new entrants rose. PERCENT DISTRIBUTION* PERCENT DISTRIBUTION* REASON FOR UNEMPLOYMENT DURATION OF UNEMPLOYMENT 60 60 50 50 40 40 REENTRANTS 30 30 20 20 NEW ENTRANTS 15-26 WEEKS \ 10 10 JOB LEAVERS 27 WEEKS AND OVER 1977 1978 * SEASONALLY 1979 1980 1977 1981 1978 1979 1980 1981 ADJUSTED SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Monthly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted] *• Percerit distribution of unem1 pl oyment 3y reasoii Unemi plojment (thousands) Job losers 1976 7,288 1977 6,855 1978 6,047 1979 5,963 1980 7,448 1980: Jan__ 6,500 Feb__ 6,454 Mar__ 6,543 Apr_ _ 7,202 May_ 7,944 June. 7,811 July__ 8,021 Aug__ 7,942 Sept__ 7,800 Oct.. 7,961 Nov., 7,946 Dec__ 7,785 1081: Jan.. 7,847 49.7 45.3 41.6 42.8 51.9 47. 0 46. 3 47.5 50. 1 52.4 55.4 54.6 54.2 55.2 53.0 53.5 54. 3 49.4 Period Job Reenleavers trants New entrants Percerit distrib ution of unemplo yment b y duratk> n i Less than 5 weeks 5-14 weeks 15-26 weeks 27 weeks and over 29.6 30.5 31. 0 31.7 32.4 30.8 32.9 33.4 32. 8 32.4 35.7 33. 5 31.9 32.6 31. 3 31.7 28.8 28.7 13.8 13. 1 12.3 11.5 13.8 12.0 12.2 12. 1 12.9 12.3 13.0 13.8 15.6 17.2 15.7 15.2 16.0 13.7 18.3 14.8 10.5 8.7 10.8 8.4 7.8 9.0 9.2 8.8 9. 6 10.7 11.5 11.7 13.0 14.0 14.9 16.2 Insured unem- Special ployunemment, ployall ment Insured uiiem- Initial regular benefit proclaims ploy- claims grams (unadment (unad-2 justed) s justed) State pi •ograms We*>kly aver age, thoussands 12. 2 13. 0 14. 1 14.3 11.6 12.5 12. 9 12.3 12. 7 11.7 11.0 10.8 11.2 10.8 10.9 11.3 10.5 11.6 26. 0 28. 1 30.0 29.5 25.2 28.0 27.9 27.7 26.7 24.9 22.8 23.4 23.6 23.2 25.2 24.0 24.0 26.2 12. 1 13.7 14.3 13.4 11.4 12. 6 12.8 12.5 10.5 11.0 10.8 11.2 10.9 10. 8 11.0 11.2 11.2 12.8 38.3 41.7 46.2 48. 1 43.1 48.8 47.0 45.5 45. 1 46.5 41.7 42. 0 41.0 38.4 39.9 39.0 40.4 41.3 2,991 2,655 2,359 2,434 386 375 346 388 3,846 3,308 2,645 2,592 2,740 2,712 2,890 3,202 3,658 3,962 3,810 3,748 3,782 3,602 3,367 3,083 2,982 414 397 464 549 631 591 514 503 495 458 424 415 417 3,740 3,730 3,652 3,629 3,680 3, 790 4, 140 3,911 3,961 3,661 3,726 4,085 1,152 572 » InDetail may not(5add to 100 percent because of rounding. 3 FSB and SUA. These programs started January 1975 and regular reporting began March 1975. 9jP<tes State ° stat*sf District of Columbia, and Puerto Rico), ex-servicemen (IJCX), Federal (UCFE), and railroad (RR) programs. Also includes Source: Department of Labor (Bureau of Labor Statistics and Employment Federal and State extended benefit programs. Does not include FSB (Federal and Training Administration). supplemental benefits) and SUA (special unemployment assistance). 13 NONAGRICULTURAL EMPLOYMENT Total nonagricultura! employment as measured by the payroll survey rose 374,000 in January. MILLIONS OF PERSONS* (ENLARGED SCALE) /yAlUIONS OF PERSONS* 22 90 ALL NONAGRICULTURAL ESTABLISHMENTS 80 70 60 SERVICE-PRODUCING INDUSTRIES 50 40 CONSTRUCTION 30 i 1 1 1 1 11 i i i 1 11 11 20 1977 1981 1980 ii i 1 1 1 1 1 1978 1979 1980 198 •SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ——COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR [Thousands of wage and salary workers;1 seasonally adjusted] G oods-pre(diicing i ndustries •p__J^J .renoa Total nonagricultural employment Finance, TransGover nment Wholeinsurportasale ance, Services tion Total and State Nonand and Durable retail Federal and Total durable real public goods trade local goods utilities estate Ma nufactui ing ConTotal * struction 76, 945 79, 382 82, 471 86, 697 89, 886 90, 656 22, 600 23, 352 24, 346 25, 585 26, 504 25, 856 3,525 18, 323 10, 688 3,576 18, 997 11, 077 1980: Jan— 91, 031 Feb.__ 91, 186 26, 715 26, 623 26, 476 26, 121 25, 745 25, 422 25, 163 25, 312 25, 476 25, 636 4,745 4,659 4,529 4,467 4,436 4,379 4,322 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 ^ Mar-_ 91, 144 Apr 90, 951 May__ 90, 468 June__ 90, 047 July.. 89, 867 Aug__ 90, 142 Sept_. 90, 384 Oct... 90, 710 Service-pi*oducing IndustrieJS 3,851 19, 4,229 20, 4,483 21, 4,469 20, 4, 359 682 505 062 363 20, 971 20, 957 20, 938 20, 642 20, 286 20, 014 19, 828 19, 940 20, 044 20, 157 20, 282 20, 328 11, 12, 12, 12, 597 274 772 216 12, 681 12, 715 12, 707 12, 442 12, 140 11, 947 11, 819 11, 860 11, 955 12, 043 12, 146 12, 169 Nov__ 90, 961 25,811 Dec *>_ 91, 116 25, 904 4,404 4,442 4,475 4,507 1981: Jan p.. 91, 490 26, 051 4,612 20, 357 12, 202 54, 345 56, 030 58, 125 8,231 61, 113 8,290 63, 382 8, 147 64, 800 4,542 17, 060 4, 582 17, 755 4,713 18, 516 4,923 19, 542 5, 141 20, 269 5, 155 20, 573 4, 165 13, 892 4,271 14, 551 4,467 15, 303 4,724 16, 252 4,974 17, 078 5, 162 17, 740 2,748 2,733 2,727 2,753 2,773 2,867 11, 937 12, 138 12, 399 12, 919 13, 147 13, 304 64, 316 64, 563 64, 668 64, 830 64, 723 64, 625 64, 704 64, 830 64, 908 65, 074 65, 150 65, 212 5,202 20, 529 5, 198 20, 637 5,202 20, 610 5, 178 20, 531 5, 167 20, 487 5, 134 20, 459 5, 114 20, 506 5, 129 20, 589 5, 124 20, 620 5, 147 20, 641 5, 132 20, 660 5, 130 20, 638 5,091 5, 101 5, 115 5, 119 5, 137 5, 150 5, 167 5, 180 5, 194 5,214 17, 462 17, 540 2,791 8, 155 65, 439 5, 149 20, 757 7,635 7,920 8,086 8,290 8,242 8,231 8,200 8, 146 8,067 8,009 8,080 8,089 8, 114 8, 136 8, 159 i Includes all full- and part-time wage and salary workers in nonagricultural establishments who worked during or received pay for any part of the pay period which includes the 12th of the month. Excludes proprietors, self-employed per*.!_*_ .._i_i. ".. i*hi _ _ . . , -. .' . . ." . .. t this table not comparable with estimates!of nonagricultural1 employment of the civilian labor force, shown on p. 11, which include proprietors, self-employed persons, and domestic servants; which count persons as employed when they 14 5,225 5,243 17, 618 17, 659 17, 652 17, 760 17, 788 17, 861 17, 913 17, 969 18, 052 2,893 2,828 2,765 2,788 2,790 2,796 13, 241 13, 261 13, 275 13, 269 13, 313 13, 279 13, 264 13, 316 13, 344 13, 371 13, 374 13, 353 5,265 18, 123 2,800 13,345 17,580 2,826 2,886 3, 115 2,960 2,951 are not at work because of industrial disputes, bad weather, etc., even if they areQ not paid for the time off; and which are based on a sample of the working*% population, whereas the estimates in this table are based on reports Iron ' Includes mining, not not, shown senaratfilv. separately. Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. AVERAGE WEEKLY HOURS AND HOURLY EARNINGS PRIVATE NONAGRICULTURAL INDUSTRIES [For production or nonsupervisory workers; monthly data seasonally adjusted] Averag56 gross hourly earnings Aver age weekly lours Total private nonagricultural * Period Manufa icturing Total Overtime Total private nonagricultural l Manufacturing Adjusted h ourly earnin gs index2 —tc)tal private nonagric ultural Percent ch ange from a year earlier 4 Index, 1!367=100 Current dollars 1967 dollars 3 Current dollars 1967 dollars 1972_ 1973 1974... 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 » 37.0 36.9 36.5 36. 1 36. 1 36.0 35.8 35.6 35.3 40.5 40.7 40.0 39.5 40. 1 40.3 40.4 40.2 39.7 3.5 3.8 3.3 2.6 3.1 3.5 3.6 3.3 2.8 $3.70 3.94 4.24 4.53 4.86 5.25 5.69 6.16 6.66 $3.82 4.09 4.42 4.83 5.22 5.68 6.17 6.69 7.27 137. 5 146.0 157. 5 170.6 183.0 196.8 212.9 229.8 250.7 109.7 109.7 106.7 105.9 107.3 108.4 109.0 105.6 101.5 6.4 6.2 7.9 8.3 7.3 7.5 8.2 7.9 1980: Jan Feb.... Mar.-..._._ Apr 35. 6 35. 5 35.4 35.3 35.1 35.0 34.9 35.1 35.2 35.3 35.4 35.4 40.3 40. 1 39.8 39.8 39.3 39.1 39.0 39.4 39. 6 39.7 39.9 40. 1 3.2 3.0 3.1 3.0 2.6 2.4 2.5 2.7 2.7 2.8 2.9 3.1 6.41 6.45 6.51 6.54 6.57 6.62 6.67 6.71 6.77 6.83 6.91 6.94 6.93 6.99 7.06 7.11 7. 15 7.22 7.30 7.36 7.42 7.49 7.58 7.63 240.3 242.4 245.2 246.2 248.3 250.9 252. 1 2540 255.4 257. 9 260.9 261.6 102.6 102.2 102. 1 101.5 101.5 101.6 102. 1 102. 0 101.5 101.4 101.5 100.7 7.9 8.2 8.9 8.6 9.1 9.4 9.2 9.3 9.0 9.7 9.9 9.3 -4.2 -3.3 -3.0 -3.2 -2.6 -2.4 -2.9 35.5 40.4 3. 1 7.02 7.69 264.3 100.9 10.0 -1.6 Ma,y June _ July Aug Sept... Oct Nov ... Dec* 1981: Jan*. 9. 1 3.0 0 -2.7 -.7 1.3 1.0 .6 -3.1 -3.9 -5.3 -5.2 -5.0 -5.2 -46 AVERAGE WEEKLY EARNINGS—PRIVATE NONAGRICULTURAL INDUSTRIES [For production or nonsupervisory workers; monthly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted] Average gross weekly earnings Total pri vate nonagricu Itural l Period Current dollars 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 9 1980: Jan.__ _ Feb___ Mar_ _ Apr May June . July Aug Sept Oct . _ Nov Dec 9 1981: Jan" fe _ 1 _ _ ___ $136. 90 145. 39 15476 163. 53 175. 45 189. 00 203. 70 219. 30 235. 10 228. 20 228, 98 230. 45 230. 86 230. 61 231. 70 232. 78 235. 52 238. 30 241. 10 244 61 245. 68 249. 21 Manufacturing 1967 dollars 3 $109. 26 109. 23 104 78 101. 45 102. 90 104 13 10430 100. 73 95. 18 97.44 96.53 95.90 95.20 94 28 93.88 9424 9462 9468 94 81 95. 10 9457 95. 19 $154 71 166. 46 176. 80 190. 79 209. 32 228. 90 249. 27 268. 94 288. 62 279. 28 280. 30 280. 99 282. 98 281. 00 282. 30 284 70 289. 98 293. 83 297. 35 302. 44 305. 96 310. 68 $221. 19 235. 89 249. 25 266. 08 283. 73 295. 65 318. 69 342. 99 367. 78 352. 86 357. 64 356. 85 359. 29 361. 74 366. 92 365. 79 366. 46 375. 87 375. 18 379. 81 383. 90 399. 74 Percent ch*inge from a year e arlier, total prh/ate nonagricu Itural 5 Current dollars Current dollan3 Also includes other private industry groups shown on p. 14. 'Adjusted for interindustry employment shifts and for overtime in manufacturing. 8 Current dollar index (or earnings) divided by the consumer price index. Revised index for urban wage earners and clerical workers used beginning 1978. Construction Wholesale and retail trade $106. 45 111.76 119. 02 126. 45 133. 79 142. 52 153. 64 164 96 175. 91 172. 13 172. 04 173. 45 172. 16 173. 98 173. 86 174 90 176. 96 178. 48 180. 00 182. 25 181. 69 184 76 7.5 6.2 6.4 5.7 7.3 7.7 7.8 7.7 7.2 6.9 6.8 6.6 8. 2 6.5 6.4 5.7 6.6 6. 4 7.5 8.4 7.7 9.2 1967 dollars 4. 1 -.0 -4 1 -3.2 1.4 1.2 .2 -3.4 -5.5 -6.2 -6.5 -7.0 -5.6 -6.9 -6.9 -6.5 -5.4 -5.5 -46 -3.8 -42 -2.3 * Monthly changes based on indexes to two decimal places. * Based on unadjusted data. NOTE.—Seasonally adjusted data in 1967 dollars revised beginning 1976. Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. 15 PRODUCTIVITY AND RELATED DATA, PRIVATE BUSINESS SECTOR Hours of 2all pers<zns Out]put* Period Output per hour of all i>ersons Compe nsation perllour 3 Unit labor CO sts Implici t price defla tor 4 PriNonNonNonNonPriPriNonNonPrivate Private Private vate farm farm farm vate farm farm vate farm business business business business business business business business business business business business sector sector sector sector sector sector sector sector sector sector sector sector 1977== 100; qua rterly da1 a season ally ad justed 1968 1969 76.9 79.2 76.7 78.9 90.3 92.7 88.5 91.3 85.2 85.4 86.7 86.4 50.6 542 51.4 ^ 548 59.5 63.5 59.3 63.4 60.3 63.3 60.5 63.4 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 78.5 80.9 86.2 92.0 90.2 78.1 80.4 85.9 91.9 90. 1 91.2 90.7 93.4 97.0 97.4 90.0 89.7 92.5 96.4 96.8 86. 1 89.2 92.4 948 92.7 86.7 89.6 93.0 95.3 93. 1 58.2 62.0 66.0 71.3 78.0 58.6 62.5 66.6 71.7 78.4 67.6 69.5 71.5 75.2 842 67.6 69.7 71.7 75.2 843 66.2 69. 1 71.5 75.3 82.4 66.4 69.4 71.4 741 81.6 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 88.5 94 1 100.0 104.7 107.7 88.1 94.0 100.0 1049 107.7 93.4 96. 1 100.0 104.9 108. 4 92.7 95.9 100.0 105. 1 108.8 948 97.9 100. 0 99.8 99.4 95.0 98. 1 100.0 99. 8 99. 0 85.5 92.9 100.0 108.4 119.2 86.0 93.0 100. 0 108.5 nas 90. 2 948 100.0 108. 6 119. 9 90.5 948 100. 0 108. 7 120.0 90.4 947 100.0 107.4 116. 9 89.9 945 100.0 107.0 116.2 106.7 106.7 107.8 108.4 99.0 98.4 131. 1 130.4 132.4 132. 4 127.6 127.4 1979: I II III IV 107.7 107. 1 107.7 108.2 107.9 107. 1 107.8 108.2 108. 1 107.5 108.6 109.3 108.4 108. 1 109.2 109.7 99.7 99.6 99.2 99.0 99.5 99. 1 98.7 98.6 115.0 118.0 120.5 123.0 114.9 117.6 119.9 122. 7 115.4 118.5 121.4 1242 115.4 118. 7 121.5 1244 113.4 115.8 118.1 120.2 112.6 115. 1 117.4 119.7 1980: I II III IV____ 108.7 105.4 105.7 107. 0 108.5 105.1 105.8 107.2 109.5 106.7 106.5 108.7 110.0 107.3 107. 1 109.0 99.3 98.8 99.2 98.5 98.6 97.9 98.8 98.3 126.0 129.7 132.8 135.5 125.6 129.0 131.9 135.0 127.0 131. 3 133.9 137.6 127. 4 131.8 133.5 137.3 123.0 126. 1 129. 1 132.2 122.9 126.3 128.8 131.9 1980 . Perceiat change ; quarterl]f data at seasonall y adjustec1 annual rates 1968 1969 5.1 2.9 5.3 2.9 1.7 2.6 2.0 3.2 3.3 .2 3.3 -.3 7.7 7.0 7.4 6.5 42 6.7 3.9 6.8 40 49 40 47 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 -.8 3.0 6.6 6.6 -1.9 -1.0 2.9 6.9 6.9 -1.9 -1.7 -.5 3.0 3.9 .4 -1.4 .4 3. 1 42 .4 .9 3.6 3.5 2.7 -2.3 .3 3.3 3.7 2.5 2.4 7.4 6.6 6.5 8.0 9.4 7.0 6.6 6.7 7.6 9.4 6.4 2.9 2.9 5.2 11.9 6.6 3. 1 2.8 49 12.1 45 4.4 3.4 5.4 9.4 48 45 3.0 3.7 10.1 1975 1976. 1977 1978 1979 -1.9 6.3 6.3 4.7 2.8 -2.2 6.7 6.4 49 2.7 -4 1 2.9 4.0 4.9 3.3 -4.2 3.4 43 5. 1 3.5 2.3 3.3 2. 1 —.2 -.4 2.1 3.2 2.0 -.2 -.8 9.6 8.6 7.7 8.4 9.9 9.6 8. 1 7.6 8.5 9.6 7.2 5.1 5.5 8.6 10.4 7.4 47 5.5 8.7 10.4 9.7 47 5.6 7.4 8.8 10.3 5. 1 5.8 7.0 8.6 1980 -.9 -1.0 -.5 -.4 ~"~~. 4k -.6 10.0 9.7 10.5 10.4 9.2 9.7 1979: I II III IV 4.0 -2.2 2.4 1.7 4. 1 -3.0 2.6 1.5 4.8 -2.0 40 2.8 5.0 -1. 1 41 1.8 -.8 -.2 -1.5 -1. 1 -.9 -1.9 -1.4 -.3 11.6 10.9 8.5 8.6 10.9 10.0 8.1 9.6 12.4 11.2 10. 1 9.8 11. 9 12. 1 9.7 9.9 8.8 8.4 8.2 7.4 8. 1 8.9 8.5 7.8 1980: I II III IV 1.8 -11.5 1. 1 5.2 1.4 -12. 1 2.9 5.4 .5 -9.9 —.4 8.2 1.4 -9.4 —.9 7.5 1.3 -1.9 1.5 -2.8 .0 -3.0 3.8 -1.9 10.4 12.2 9.7 8.4 9.9 11.2 9.3 9.6 9.0 144 8. 1 11.5 9.9 14 6 5.3 11.8 9.7 10.5 9.8 9. 9 11.3 11.3 8.2 10.0 »Output refers to gross domestic product originating in the sector in 1972 dollars. 2 Hours of all persons in private industry engaged in the sector, including hours of proprietors and unpaid family workers. Estimates based primarily on establishment data. s Wages and salaries of employees plus employers' contributions for social insurance and private benefit plans. Also includes an estimate of wages, salaries, and supplemental payments for the self-employed. 4 Current dollar gross domestic product divided by constant dollar gross domestic product. 16 NOTE.—Percent changes are from preceding period and are based on original data; they therefore may differ slightly from percent changes based on indeies shown here. Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. PRODUCTION AND BUSINESS ACTIVITY INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION AND CAPACITY UTILIZATION Industrial production rose 0.6 percent in January following increases of 1.0 percent in December and. 1.7 percent in November. INDEX, 1967=100* (RATIO SCALE) INDEX, 1967=100* (RATIO SCALE) TOTAL INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION UTILITIES AND MINING PRODUCTION 180 160 UTILITIES 140 120 v % MINING 110 MANUFACTURING PRODUCTION 180 ,I 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 PERCENT* (RATIO SCALE) 100 MANUFACTURING CAPACITY UTILIZATION RATE 160 90 140 80 120 70 1981 1977 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 * SEASONALLY ADJUSTED SOURCE: BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM Period 1967 proportion 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978___ 1979 1980 » 1980: Jan Feb Mar Apr May__ June. July Aug. SeptOct Nov Dec v 1981: Jan *_ _ Total in dustrial produ ction Percent Index, 1967= change from 100 year earlier 100. 00 -. 4 129. 3 117.8 -8.9 130.5 10.8 138. 2 5.9 5.7 146. 1 4.4 152.5 147. 1 -3. 5 152. 7 152. 6 152. 1 148.3 144.0 141. 5 140.4 141.8 144. 1 146. 9 149.4 150.9 151. 8 .5 .1 -.9 -1.9 -5.7 -7.5 -8.2 -6.8 -5.6 -3.8 1.9 -1. 1 -. 6 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Seasonally adjusted] Indu 3try prodiiction ind<3xes, 1967= 100 Mi mufacturi ng Mining Utilities 85.97 134. 6 126.4 141. 8 150. 5 156. 9 164. 0 161. 1 6.36 115.3 112.8 114.2 118.2 124.0 125.5 132.7 5. 69 143.7 146.0 151.7 156. 5 161. 4 166.0 170.3 87. 1 73.4 81. 1 82. 7 85.6 87.4 79. 8 83.8 72.9 79.5 81. 9 84.4 85.7 79. 0 144.7 144. 1 143. 4 138.4 133.3 129.9 128. 3 129.4 131.7 135.8 139.3 140.4 166.0 165.9 164. 7 161. 6 158.0 155.3 154.7 156.9 160. 3 161.8 163. 3 164.9 133.5 132.9 133. 0 133. 1 133.4 132. 9 130.6 129.6 130. 5 132.1 135.4 137.7 164.8 167. 1 172.0 169. 1 167.7 169.3 171.8 173.8 172.7 170.4 171.3 173.6 86. 1 85.6 84. 7 82. 1 78. 3 75. 7 73.7 74. 6 76.3 78.4 80.3 81.3 83.9 83.5 82.8 80. 3 77.6 75.7 74. 9 75.5 76.6 78.2 79.4 79.8 141. 1 165.7 139.4 175.3 81.7 80.0 Total Durable Nondurable 87. 95 129.4 116.3 130.3 138. 4 146.8 153.6 146.6 51.98 125.7 109. 3 122. 3 130. 0 139. 7 146.4 136. 6 153.4 153. 0 152. 1 147.9 143. 4 140.3 139. 1 140.6 143.4 146.4 149. 1 150.4 151. 1 12 Output as percent of capacity. Annual data are averages of four monthly indexes. 3 Quarterly data entered in last month of quarter. Annual data are averages of quarterly data. Capacit y utilizati< 3n rate, p ercent 1 Mi inufacturi ng Materials (Federal WharReserve Federal Comton series) Reserve merce2 series series 3 series 83 77 81 83 84 83 90. 2 79.4 85.5 88. 1 90.9 92.6 80 91.3 76 85. 7 76 83. 5 Sources: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Department of ommerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis), and Wharton School of Finance. Com: 17 INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION—MAJOR MARKET GROUPS AND SELECTED MANUFACTURES [1967=100, seasonally adjusted] Proclucts Final 1Products Equip>ment Coiisumer goods Period Total Total 1967 proportion 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 — 1977 1978 1979 1980" — 1980: Jan Feb Mar Apr __ _ — May _— June July Aug _ _ Sept Oct Nov Dee*. 1981: Jan » 47.82 106.3 115.7 124.4 125. 1 118.2 127.6 135.9 142. 2 147.2 145.3 147. 0 147.7 147.7 145. 4 143. 1 142.3 142.4 142. 8 143. 9 145.8 147.4 148. 1 148.6 27.68 1147 124.4 131.5 128.9 124. 0 137.1 145.3 149. 1 150.8 145.5 147.9 148.4 148.6 145.3 142.4 142. 1 142.0 142.7 144. 3 146.6 147.9 147.9 147.8 Internatediate prod ucts NonDurable durable goods goods 19.79 7.89 113. 1 118.8 120.6 133.8 146.2 125.6 126. 3 135.3 125. 1 121.4 135.2 141. 9 141.9 154.0 145. 1 159.2 148.8 155.8 149.2 136.5 142. 3 150. 1 144. 5 150.0 150.3 144. 1 148.8 136.3 147.7 128.8 147.6 128.2 147.4 128.3 148.3 128. 6 148.9 132.7 149.4 139.6 149.9 142.9 141.1 150. 6 151.9 137.5 Total Business Total 20.14 12.63 104. 1 118.0 134.2 142.4 128.2 135.4 147.8 160.3 171. 3 173.2 174. 9 176.0 176. 1 174.2 171.9 169.8 170. 1 170.3 170.5 172.3 174.6 176.4 178.2 12.89 116.7 126.5 137.2 135.3 123. 1 137.2 145. 1 154. 1 160.5 151.9 160.8 159.2 158.3 150.8 146.2 143.5 144.5 147.6 150.6 152. 4 153.6 156.2 157.5 94.7 103.8 114.5 120.0 110.2 114. 6 123.0 132.8 142.2 145.1 145. 8 146. 6 146.6 145.6 144. 0 142.6 142. 9 142.9 143.2 144.8 146. 8 148.3 149.7 Construction supplies 6. 42 116.8 128.4 139.8 134.5 116.3 132. 6 140.6 151.7 158.0 140. 8 156.4 153.8 152.3 139.4 133. 0 128.5 128.6 133. 1 137.4 140. 5 142.8 145.9 147. 7 Materials 89.29 111.3 122.3 133. 9 132. 4 115.5 131. 7 138. 6 148.3 156.4 147.7 157.0 156.5 155.3 151.0 144.3 140.0 136. 5 138.6 142.4 146.4 150. 4 152.7 153.8 Supplementary group: Energy total 12. 2S 119.5 125.2 128.3 125.5 125.5 129. 1 132.9 135.4 137.9 138.9 138.6 139.4 139.6 139. 1 137.9 138.4 139.2 139.2 138.2 136. 8 139. 1 141. 1 142.4 [1967=100, seasonally adjusted] Durable m anufactu res Primary? metals Period Total 1967 proportion 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 » 1980: Jan Feb Mar Apr May__ _ June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec v. _ 1981: Jan* 6.57 100.2 112. 1 126.7 123. 1 96.4 109.7 111. 1 119.9 121. 3 101.7 __ 116.4 111.9 113. 7 106.4 96. 1 90.4 81. 7 _ 86.0 90. 1 100.6 _ 113.5 113.3 112.7 Iron and steel 4.21 96. 1 107. 1 122. 3 119.8 95.8 104. 8 103.8 113. 2 113. 2 91.8 107. 2 103.4 105.9 97. 4 84.4 75.4 68. 1 75.3 79.8 93.3 107.2 104.7 trical machin— ery 5.93 103.5 112. 1 124.7 124.2 109. 9 123. 9 131.0 141. 6 148.5 134.9 145. 0 145.7 145.5 141.4 133.2 126. 1 123.8 125.8 129.0 132.8 133.9 136.3 137.6 100.2 116.0 133.7 140. 1 125. 1 134.5 143.6 153.6 163.7 162.6 167. 1 167.0 166.5 163. 2 162. 1 158.3 158.5 158.8 159. 1 161. 1 163.4 165. 2 167. 8 Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. 18 Non- Fabricated metal products 9. 15 Electrical machinery 8.05 107.7 122.2 143. 1 143.8 116.5 134. 8 145.4 159. 4 175.0 172.8 181.7 179.2 179.2 177.0 171.4 166.6 165.0 166.7 167.5 170.0 173.3 175.3 177.3 Non<lurable rnanufact ures Transp ortation equip>ment Total Motor vehicles and parts 9.27 97.9 108.2 118. 3 108.7 97.4 111, 1 122.2 132. 5 135.4 116.7 122. 1 125.7 123. 8 115. 1 109.8 110.0 110.7 108.3 112. 9 118.8 121.7 120.5 117.5 4.50 118.6 135.8 148.8 128.2 111. 1 142.0 161. 1 169.9 159.9 118.8 126.2 133.9 130. 1 114.7 105.9 106.7 107.9 104.4 113. 4 124.2 129.0 126.7 119.4 Lumber and products ApF pareli products 1.64 113.8 120.8 126.0 116.2 107.6 123. 2 131.2 136.3 136.9 119. 5 131.6 130. 2 125.3 105.2 104.5 109. 7 112.8 121. 7 122.6 122.2 124.9 124.7 104.7 109.4 117. 3 114.3 107.6 125.7 134.2 134.2 134.4 129.0 131.5 133. 8 136. 1 131.3 128.6 127.2 121.5 123.8 126.7 127.5 129.9 3. SI Print- Cheming icals Foods and and pub- prodlishing ucts 4. 72 107. 1 112. 7 118.2 118. 2 113.3 122. 5 127.6 131. 5 136.9 139.6 138. 9 139.9 139.2 136.5 135. 5 135.4 138.6 140. 3 140.3 141. 5 142.7 144.8 146.2 7. 74 125. 9 143. 6 154.5 159.4 147.2 170.9 185. 7 197.4 211.8 206. 6 218.0 217.4 213.6 209. 1 199. 2 191. 1 190.3 197.8 206. 8 209.1 212.1 217.3 8. 76 112.8 116. 8 120.9 124.0 123.4 133.0 138.8 142.7 147.5 149. 1 148. 5 149.0 149.3 147.8 149. 5 149.0 148.9 148.3 148.6 149.4 149.5 149. 7| NEW CONSTRUCTION Constructio n contracts1 Private Period Total new construction expenditures Resid ential Total Total1 Commercial and industrial New housing Other Federal, State, and local Total value index (1972= 100) Commercial and industrial floor space (millions of square feet) 103.0 101.9 121.0 153. 6 174. 1 185.6 161.8 840 555 592 739 977 1,059 898 Billions of doll ars 138.5 134.5 151, 1 174.0 205.5 229.0 227.8 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 ».. 100.2 93.7 111.9 135.8 159.6 179.9 172.6 50.4 46.5 60.5 81.0 93.4 99. 0 86.2 23.8 20.8 19.9 22.5 29.6 39.9 43.4 40.6 34.4 47.3 65.7 75.8 78.6 62.8 25.9 26.4 31.5 32.4 36.6 41.0 43.0 38.3 40.9 39. 1 38.2 45.9 49.0 55.2 Seasonally adjusted Seas on all]1 adjusted aiinual rates 1980: Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Novp Dee _ 1981: Jan » _ _ _ U J 259.6 248.8 237.1 225. 8 218.9 215.0 214.3 215. 1 223. 7 226. 1 231.6 242.4 255.6 198. 1 191.7 180.6 171.5 164.8 161. 3 158.6 162. 1 167.9 171. 1 177.9 184. 0 192. 0 47.4 46.4 43.8 44.5 44. 3 44.6 41.3 41. 0 40.5 41.4 42. 3 45.5 48.0 80.7 75. 1 68.4 60.7 55.2 51.9 52.2 56. 1 60. 8 63.5 69. 2 71. 1 75.7 105.8 101.5 94.0 83.5 77.0 73.4 74.3 78.6 84.4 87.4 93.7 96. 0 100.7 1 Includes nonhousekeeping residential construction and additions and alterations, not shown separately. * F. W. Dodge series. Relates to 50 States beginning 1969 tor value index and beginning 1971 for floor space. 44.9 43. 8 42.8 43.5 43.5 43.4 43.0 42. 4 43. 0 42.3 41. 9 42.5 43.3 61.5 57.0 56.5 54.3 54.1 53.7 55.7 53. 1 55.8 55. 1 53.7 58.4 63.7 190 171 155 130 125 145 148 192 163 167 210 193 185 Seasonally adjusted annual rates 1, 135 1,011 967 881 805 857 857 824 822 865 1,034 1,169 944 NOTE.—Floor space data revised for 1980. Sources: Department of Commerce (Bureau of the Census) and McGraw-Hill Information Systems Company, F. W. Dodge Division. NEW PRIVATE HOUSING AND VACANCY RATES [Thousands of units or homes, except as noted] New priv ate homes Kfew private lousing unit,s Period Units started, by type of struicture Total 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980" 2, 045. 3 1, 337. 7 1, 160. 4 1, 537. 5 1, 987. 1 2, 020. 3 1, 745. 1 1, 292. 0 1 unit 1, 132. 0 888. 1 892.2 1, 162. 4 1, 450. 9 1, 433. 3 1, 194. 1 852. 1 2-4 units 118.3 68. 1 64.0 85.9 121.7 125.0 122.0 109.8 5 or more units 795.0 381.6 204.3 289.2 414.4 462.0 429.0 330. 1 Units authorized 1, 819. 5 1, 074. 4 939. 2 1, 296. 2 1, 690. 0 1, 800. 5 1, 551. 8 1, 181. 6 Units completed Homes sold Homes for sale at end of 1 period 2, 100. 5 1, 728. 5 1, 317. 2 1, 377. 2 1, 657. 1 1, 867. 5 1, 870. 8 1, 498. 5 634 519 549 646 819 817 709 531 418 346 313 353 402 414 3 398 337 1,787 1,832 1, 669 1,897 1,536 1,469 1,502 1,405 1,256 1, 285 1,269 1,380 596 529 470 353 471 532 625 616 563 549 559 527 493 393 382 376 364 351 341 335 331 335 334 338 337 336 Vacancy rate for rental housing units (percent)2 5.8 6.2 6.0 5.6 5.2 5.0 5.3 Seasonally adjusted aiinual rates 1980: Jan Feb Mar Apr May June Julv Aug Sept Oct Nov* Dec" 1981: Jan » 1 a 8 1,389 1, 273 1,040 1,044 938 1, 184 1,277 1,411 1,482 1,519 1,550 1,532 1,585 965 777 628 650 651 760 867 971 1,032 1,009 1,019 971 941 Seasonally adjusted. Quarterly data entered in last month of quarter. New series beginning March 1979. 119 98 89 99 87 77 83 133 140 121 143 135 142 305 398 323 295 200 347 327 307 310 389 388 426 502 1,271 1, 168 968 789 825 1,078 1,236 1,361 1,564 1, 333 1,355 1,235 1,213 5.0 5.4 5.5 4.8 NOTE.—Units authorized beginning 1978 relate to 16,000 permit-issuing places; data for 1973-77 are for 14,000 places. Seasonally adjusted housing starts and homes sold revised beginning 1978. Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census. 19 BUSINESS SALES AND INVENTORIES—TOTAL AND TRADE Business sales rose 1 percent in December while inventories fell $1% billion. According to the advance survey, retail sales rose 2 percent in January following a slight increase in December. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE) BILOUN513F DOLLARS * 140 130 600 550 (RATIO SCALE) 120 500 RETAIL INVENTORIES 450 V 110 TOTAL BUSINESS INVENTORIES 100 400 90 350 80 300 70 irt«.,.« RETAIL SALES 60 250 ^S TOTAL BUSINESS SALES 50 200 40 RATIO* 1.80 150 1.70 1977 1979 1978 1980 1981 1980 1981 INVENTORY-SALES RATIO 1.60 RETAIL 1.50 1.40 TOTAL BUSINESS 1.30 1 1 M 11 100 1977 1978 1979 him 1.20 1980 1977 1981 1979 1978 * SEASONALLY ADJUSTED SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS Total b usiness l Who iesale Period 29 C 1 Sales Inventories 8 InvenCS If* 29. Sales tories " Inventoi•y-sales rat io 4 Re tail Sales 2 TVvf «i1 In ventorie s* DurNonable durable goods goods stores stores TVvfol NonDurable durable goods goods stores stores Total business l Retail Mill ons of d o liars, seasonally adjusted 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 » 1979: Dec 1980: Jan Feb Mar Apr Mav June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec » 152, 237 175, 741 180, 263 202, 001 224, 786 254, 297 288, 388 1.. 310, 852 234, 162 285, 518 285, 035 310,736 337, 432 380, 643 426, 796 456, 322 36, 822 45, 836 44, 633 48, 408 53, 509 62, 842 73, 551 82, 280 46, 254 56, 537 55, 113 61, 307 67, 998 80, 771 89, 676 99, 541 42, 461 45, 083 49, 013 54, 784 60, 435 66, 741 73, 837 78, 694 14, 409 14, 118 15, 247 18, 150 20, 724 23, 458 25, 680 25, 032 28, 052 63, 237 28, 418 30, 965 71, 067 32, 861 33, 766 71, 744 33, 356 36, 633 79, 273 37, 841 39, 711 89, 210 42, 970 43, 283 101, 538 50, 100 48, 158 108,862 53, 087 53, 662 112, 288 51, 856 34, 819 38, 206 38, 388 41, 432 46, 240 51, 438 55, 775 60, 432 1.43 1.47 1.58 1.48 1.44 1.41 1.41 1.44 302, 117 312, 458 310, 181 _ 305, 165 294, 998 292, 478 294, 203 304, 154 _ _ _ 308, 019 318, 321 _ 325, 838 328, 983 ;__ 333, 018 426, 796 431, 420 435, 155 439, 114 445, 170 445, 801 447, 031 449, 510 451, 951 454, 566 456, 532 457, 986 456, 322 78, 678 80, 906 79, 299 78, 550 76, 391 76, 376 76, 629 80, 189 82, 606 85, 470 88, 532 89, 136 91, 333 89, 676 90, 690 91, 342 91, 497 92, 378 92, 562 93, 633 94, 619 97,111 98, 111 99, 275 99, 956 99, 541 77, 150 79, 464 77, 993 76, 534 75, Oil 74, 587 76, 001 78, 287 78, 770 80, 087 80, 609 82, 125 82, 362 25, 943 27, 268 26, 369 24, 296 22, 821 22, 537 23, 212 25, 076 24, 821 25, 868 25, 591 26, 524 26, 185 51, 207 52, 196 51, 624 52, 238 52, 190 52, 050 52, 789 53, 211 53, 949 54, 219 55, 018 55, 601 56, 177 108,862 53, 087 108, 436 52, 130 108, 717 52, 232 109, 095 52, 276 110, 252 52, 490 109, 837 51, 792 109, 768 51, 645 110, 786 51, 531 111,323 52, 383 112,840 52, 238 114, 381 52, 687 113, 940 52, 804 112, 288 51, 856 55,775 56, 306 56, 485 56, 819 57, 762 58, 045 58, 123 59, 255 58, 940 60, 602 61, 694 61, 136 60, 432 1.41 1.38 1. 40 1.44 1.51 1.52 1.52 1.48 1.47 1.43 1.40 1.39 1.37 1981: Jan * 1 1.41 1.36 1.39 1.43 1.47 1.47 1.44 1.42 1.41 1.41 1.42 1.39 1.36 84, 009 26, 936 57, 073 The lerm "business" also includes manufacturing (see page 21). *3 Monthly average for year and total for month. Book value, end of period, seasonally adjusted. * For annual periods, ratio of weighted average inventories to average monthly sales; for monthly data, ratio of inventories at end of month to sales for month. 1 x 1.40 1.48 1.44 1.38 1.39 1.43 1.45 1.41 Source: Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis and Bureau of the Census). MANUFACTURERS' SHIPMENTS, INVENTORIES, AND ORDERS Manufacturers* orders, shipments, and inventories rose in December. According to advance data, durable goods orders fell in January while shipments rose slightly. BILL) DNS OF DOLLARS* (RATIOSCALE) 200 180 " SHIPME - NTS 160 — 140 120 240 r^^^ TOTAL - H -^ —-***""""' __* BiLLIC3NS OF DOLU\RS * (RATIO S CALE) 280 200 ~ ! _ - INVENTORES _ — i_—-——— —i _^———-^ X __ ^^•—"'''"l ***?!^—— — TOTAL ; 160 »-•--«-—- _ 100 80 » *—% ,»«.*•**"*'*' *' "1^ '" 60 - DUR-ABLE GOODS *-***" —«.•———""***" "V *••*"*'***** •*""*^—y^^ - t^..»..— ••"'" 80 NONDURAB LE GOODS ^. ^ •• 120 _^ -?-*- 1 111 1 1111 11 ~ - RAT o* 22 - DURABLE C OODS "~" '- •""'^ y/ v/ .—*****" % x-^""^ ^-* - ..-""" 1.8 ^ I,,,,, 1978 — _ s~\. | 1 .1 1 1 1 1 1 . . 1 1979 1980 IIM1 1.6 Vy — ^^ 1.4 _ ,,,,,! 1981 1.2 /^^\ —JA ^^—-^'^ *^_ ^—^^,~Jv*~^ ~ 40 1977 INVENT*^RY-SHIP^/IENTS RA"no * NONDURABL E GOODS , , ,. ,i . , i . . MMlllllll 1977 Ml»llll« 1978 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS Manufac turers* sh pments Total \^ M 1 M I 1 1 1 11 1 1 1 1111 11 11 1 1 1 11 I 1 M 11 1979 1981 1980 *SEASONALLY ADJUSTED SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE Period 1 1 M 1 I | M 11 1981 1980 ^ sr -^ *-'(* I Mi i i i i i i < I i i i > iM M l l l l l l l 1979 1978 1977 2.0 \ 80 -; — \" Af) ~*S*^ ~ _ .LLU.LLu.LiJ f-V—"t—^ ~^^f ^>~—^s^ TOTAL 100 60 ~ .•*•' NONDUR/\BLE GOODS i i i . i I1 1 i ii , i , , , i i i . ., BILLI DNS OF DOLL ARS* (RATIO SC:ALE) 200 180 —NEW OF3DERS 160 " - DURABLE GOODS _ 60 140 \ 100 4U 111i 1111111 '" l NonDurable durable goods goods Manufact urers' inv entories Total 2 NonDurable durable goods goods Manu facturers ' new orders l Total Durab e goods ManufacCapital Nonturers' goods durable unfilled indusTotal goods orders 3 tries, nondefense Manufacturers' inventory — shipments ratio * Millio ns of dollsirs, seasonally adjusted 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980-.- 84, 821 86, 617 98,810 110, 842 124, 714 141, 000 149, 878 44, 253 43, 678 50, 697 58,010 66, 505 73, 981 75, 227 40, 568 42, 939 48, 113 52, 832 58, 210 67, 019 74, 651 157, 915 158, 178 170, 156 180, 224 198, 334 228, 258 244, 493 101, 101, 109, 115, 129, 151, 161, 866 766 095 751 456 689 907 56, 048 56, 412 61, 061 64, 472 68, 878 76, 569 82, 586 87, 157 85, 082 99, 184 112,451 128, 488 144, 335 150, 814 46, 740 41, 957 51, 047 59, 562 70, 145 77, 215 76, 228 12, 737 10, 772 12, 501 15, 084 18, 308 21, 643 21, 303 40, 417 43, 125 48, 137 52, 889 58, 344 67, 120 74, 587 187, 574 169, 126 173, 646 193, 561 239, 321 279, 710 290, 735 1.65 1.83 1.66 1.59 1. 52 1.52 1.61 1980: Jan___ Feb_._ Mar__ Apr May__ June__ July_. Aug.— Sept__ Oct.__ Nov Dec___ 152, 088 152, 889 150, 081 143, 596 141, 515 141,573 145, 678 146, 643 152, 764 156, 697 157, 722 159, 323 77, 948 79, 159 75, 925 72, 207 69, 443 69, 056 72, 544 72, 057 76, 571 79, 497 79, 741 80, 027 74, 140 73, 730 74, 156 71, 389 72, 072 72, 517 73, 134 74, 586 76, 193 77, 200 77, 981 79, 296 232, 294 235, 096 238, 522 242, 540 243, 402 243. 630 244, 105 243, 517 243, 615 242, 876 244, 090 244, 493 154, 043 155, 314 157, 127 159, 877 160, 607 160, 404 160, 875 161, 081 160, 691 160, 137 160, 977 161, 907 78, 251 79, 782 81, 395 82, 663 82, 795 83, 226 83, 230 82, 436 82, 924 82, 739 83, 113 82, 586 155, 588 154, 603 152, 065 143, 313 138, 920 138, 5S2 147, 104 147, 180 155, 262 158, 054 158, 775 162, 157 81, 467 81, 021 77, 546 72,416 67, 328 66, 454 74, 228 72, 229 78, 960 80, 693 81, 047 82, 654 23, 859 21, 480 22, 590 22, 162 19, 589 19, 954 21, 608 19, 371 20, 860 20, 618 21, 849 21, 673 74, 121 73, 582 74, 519 70, 897 71, 592 72, 128 72, 876 74, 951 76, 302 77, 361 77, 728 79, 503 283,211 284, 924 286, 907 286, 629 284, 033 281, 044 282, 463 282, 997 285, 497 286, 849 287, 907 290, 735 1.53 1.54 1. 59 1.69 1.72 1. 72 1. 68 1.66 1.59 1.55 1.55 1.53 80, 851 23, 494 1981: Jan* 80, 231 J Monthly average for year and total for month. Shipments are the same as sales. 2 Book value, end of period. s End of period. * For annual periods, ratio of weighted average inventories to average monthly shipments; for monthly data, ratio of inventories at end of month to shipments for month. Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census. 21 PRODUCER PRICES PRICES In January, the producer price index for all finished goods rose 0.9 percent, seasonally adjusted. Prices of finished consumer foods were about unchanged and prices of other finished consumer goods were up 1.2 percent. Prices of capital equipment rose 1.0 percent. INDEX, 1967=100 (RATIO SCALE) INDEX, 1967 =100 (RATIO SCALE) 280 - 160 140 140 120 120 100 100 1981 1973 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR [i96<r=100; month]y data iseasonal ly adjussted] ^inishec I goods Imbermedi ate rnateria]Is Total finished CapiFoods consumer Total and 1 Other tal feeds equip- goods ment 123. 5 129.2 131.6 168.4 128. 1 141.0 149.3 162.9 200.2 159.5 162. 5 163.6 180. 0 195.3 178.6 173.2 169.0 189. 3 186.6 189.5 184.5 178.9 201.7 191.0 202.4 199. 1 192.6 215.5 201.0 216.4 216.7 215.7 242.8 223.2 244. 0 239.5 248. 8 280. 1 252.2 281.3 228. 2 235.8 267.3 228. 1 269.4 230. 0 239.3 272.0 238. 1 273. 6 232. 1 242. 1 274.0 233.2 276. 1 235.8 243. 3 274.7 229. 0 277.2 236. 6 244. 5 276.4 239.9 278.2 238.2 246.6 278.4 241. 0 280.3 241. 1 251. 2 281. 0 251.0 282.3 243. 6 254.3 283.7 266.0 284. 1 243.9 255. 1 285.2 267.9 285.6 247. 0 256.5 286. 8 280.3 286.4 248.4 258.4 289. 8 284.3 289.3 250.6 259.4 293.3 268. 4 294.2 253.0 261.5 296.8 268.7 298. 0 Finished goods e xcludin g cons inner fc»ods Period Total finConished sumer goods foods Total Conssinner coods Total 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1980: Jan__ Feb.. Mar.__ Apr__ May June July Aug-_ Sept Oct _ Nov Dec ___ 1981: Jan _ _ 1 127. 9 147.5 163.4 170.3 180.6 194.6 216. 1 246.8 234.2 237. 3 239.9 241. 7 242.8 244.8 249.0 252. 0 252.7 254.5 256.3 257.5 259.7 146.4 166.9 181.0 180.2 189.2 206.7 226.3 239.4 232. 0 230. 7 232.9 229. 8 230.8 232. 1 240.6 247. 0 248.3 249.5 250.3 250. 5 250.6 120.1 139.3 156.2 165.5 176.2 188.9 210.8 247.7 233.4 237.9 240. 7 244.2 245.3 247. 5 250.2 252. 0 252. 5 254. 5 256.6 258.2 261. 1 118.6 138.6 153. 1 161.8 172. 1 183.7 208.2 248.5 232.5 238.2 241.2 244. 5 245.8 248.2 250. 8 252. 3 252.8 254.3 256.7 258.0 261.0 Intermediate materials for food manufacturing and feeds. 22 Timahl<» 115.4 125. 9 138.2 144. 4 152.2 165. 8 181.9 205.9 198.9 202.2 200.8 201.5 201. 7 204.7 207.7 209.4 209. 1 211.3 212. 5 212.4 212. 5 Nondurable 120.5 146.8 163.0 173.3 185.4 195.4 225.9 283.9 261.4 269. 1 275. 9 281.5 283. 6 285. 6 287. 8 289. 1 290.3 291.2 294. 7 297.2 302.3 rri A i Crud e mateiials Total 174.0 196. 1 196.9 205. 1 214.3 240. 1 282.2 304.2 288.8 295. 1 288.4 283. 1 286. 1 288. 3 303. 6 317.5 321.8 326.9 329.2 325. 3 322. 1 Foodstuffs and feedstuffs 180. 0 189.4 19L8 190. 1 190.9 215.3 247.2 259. 1 245.9 250.3 242.9 234.4 238. 7 242.7 260.9 276.8 278.7 282. 8 283. 3 275.8 272.9 Other 162.5 208.9 206.9 233.6 258.4 286.7 348.3 399.9 379.6 390.0 384.9 386. 6 386.6 385. 1 394. 3 403.6 413.0 420. 3 426.5 430. 1 426. 6 NOTE.—Data beginning 1976 revised to reflect 1972 input-output relationships and new seasonal adjustments. Data for September 1980 revised, routinely, to reflect late reports, etc. Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. CONSUMER PRICES In January, the consumer price index (or all urban consumers rose 0.7 percent, seasonally adjusted (0.8 percent unadjusted). Food prices fell 0.1 percent (rose 0.8 percent unadjusted) and nonfood commodity prices were up 1.0 percent (0.6 percent unadjusted). Services prices were up 0.9 percent (1.1 percent unadjusted). INDEX, 1967=100 (RATIO SCALE) INDEX, 1967= 100 (RATIO SCALE) 140 120 1973 SEE NOTE ON TABLE BELOW SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR [1967=100] All items Food Commodities less food 1973.... 133.1 1974. 147. 7 1975.., 161. 2 1976.. .. 170.5 1977 181. 5 1978 195.4 1979 _ 217.4 1980. ._, 246.8 141.4 161.7 175.4 180. 8 192. 2 211.4 234.5 254.6 123.5 136.6 149.1 156. 6 165. 1 174.7 195. 1 222.0 Period Services commodities All Food at home Food away from home 139.1 152. 1 166.6 180.4 194.3 210.9 234.2 270.3 129.9 145.5 158.4 165.2 174. 7 187.1 208.4 233.9 141.4 161.7 175.4 180.8 192.2 211. 4 234 5 254.6 141. 4 162.4 175.8 179. 5 190.2 210.2 232.9 251.5 141.4 159.4 174.3 186.1 200. 3 218.4 242.9 267.0 233. 2 236.4 239.8 242.5 244.9 247. 6 247.8 249.4 251.7 253.9 256.2 258.4 260. 5 243.8 244. 9 247. 3 249. 1 250.4 252.0 254.8 258.7 261. 1 262.4 264.5 266.4 268. 6 210. 4 213.8 216.7 218.6 220.2 221.4 222.2 224.2 226.6 228.3 230.0 231.0 232. 4 253. 1 256.8 261.3 265.3 269. 2 274.2 272.4 272.5 274.8 277.9 280.9 284.7 287.7 223.6 226. 1 228. 6 229.7 230.7 231. 6 233.0 235.9 238. 9 241. 1 243.5 245.2 246.6 NOTE.—Data beginning January 1978 relate to all urban consumers. Earlier data relate to urban wage earners and clerical workers. All 123.5 136.6 149. 1 156.6 165.1 174.7 195. 1 222.0 Services Dur_ i_i _ able Nondurable 121.9 130. 6 145.5 154.3 163.2 173.9 191. 1 210.4 124.8 140.9 151.7 158.3 166. 5 174.3 198.7 235.2 139.1 152.1 166.6 180.4 194.3 210.9 234.2 270.3 202.2 203. 0 204.0 205. 2 206. 7 207.7 208.8 212. 1 215.2 217.6 220.4 221. 3 221.9 222.2 228.8 233.3 234.3 234.9 235.5 236.4 237.4 238.4 239.2 240.3 242.0 247.0 253.6 257.2 261.6 265.5 269.4 274. 1 272.4 272.7 274.6 277.9 281.5 285.5 288. 0 Seasonal]y adjust ed Unacljusted 1980: Jan Feb,___ Mar Apr^ May_-_ June... July_._ Aug Sept... Oct Nov... Dec 1981: Jan__ Comnlodities less food Food 245.3 244. 9 247.0 248.3 249.3 250.5 252.9 257. 6 262.0 264.4 267.6 270.2 269.8 241. 9 240.8 243.0 244. 0 244. 9 245.8 248.7 254. 6 259.8 262.2 265.6 268.0 266.9 257. 1 258.5 260.5 262.3 263. 7 265.6 266.9 268.9 271.4 273.6 276.5 279.4 282.0 211.3 214.9 217. 5 218.5 219.5 220. 3 221.3 223.4 225. 9 228.0 230.0 231.3 233.6 Seasonally adjusted data revised beginning 1976. Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. 23 CHANGES IN PRODUCER PRICES FOR FINISHED GOODS Period Percen , change from pre ceding perioc ; season:lUy adjusted 1 Percent , change from 3 nlonths earlie r; season ally adjuisted annual rates Percen t change from 6 ntionths earlie r; season ally adjiisted annua rates Consunw3r goods Consume2r goods Consumesr goods Total finished goods Capital Total equipfinExclud- ment ished ing Foods goods foods Capital Total finequipished Exclud- ment goods ing Foods foods Capital equipExclud- ment Foods ing foods 3.8 11.8 18.3 6.6 3.7 6.9 9.2 12.8 11.7 8.0 22. 5 13. 0 5.5 -2.5 6.9 11.7 7.4 7.3 2.0 7.4 20.5 3.7 4.8 6.8 8.5 17.5 14.0 2.0 5.3 22.6 8.2 6.4 7.3 7.9 8.8 11.4 1980: Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 1.6 1.3 1. 1 .8 .5 .8 1.7 1.2 .3 .7 .7 .5 -.6 -.6 1.0 -1.3 .4 .6 3.7 2.7 .5 .5 .3 .1 2.9 2.5 1.3 1.4 .5 1.0 1.0 .6 .2 .6 .9 .5 1.5 .8 .9 1.6 .3 .7 1.2 1.0 .1 1.3 .6 .9 16.3 16.1 17.5 13.4 9.6 8.4 12.6 16.0 13.5 9. 1 7.0 7.8 6.6 -2.7 .9 -3.7 .2 -1.4 20.2 31.2 31.0 15.6 5.5 3.6 22.9 28.1 29.7 22.3 13.4 12. 1 10.7 11.0 7.6 5.7 7.2 8.5 12.9 13. 0 13.6 14.0 12.0 10.9 9.3 12.4 9.9 10.2 8. 1 11.4 16. 1 17.0 15.6 14.9 12.8 12.9 13. 0 12.8 11.0 10.9 11.4 10.6 7.6 5.6 4. 1 1.3 -1.3 — 1. 1 7.6 14.6 13.7 17.9 17.6 16.5 23.3 25.7 23.5 22.6 20.5 20.6 16.4 12.2 9.8 8.2 9.1 8. 1 10.1 11.4 11.7 13.4 12.5 12.3 11.6 12.2 10.4 9.7 10.2 10.7 1981: Jan .9 .0 1.2 1.0 8.4 1.8 11.0 10.1 8.8 8.5 8.3 10.1 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980.__. Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. i Annual changes are from December to December (unadjusted). NOTE.—Based on revised data. CHANGES IN CONSUMER PRICES Percen t change5 from pre ceding period ; seasoilally adju sted1 Percent change frc>m 3 mont lis earlier; Percent c lange frc m 6 mont is earlier; seasoniilly adju sted annu al rates seasonsilly ad jus?ted annuiil rates Commodities i ___ less food — - 3.4 8.8 12. 2 7.0 48 6.8 9.0 13.3 12.4 4.7 20. 1 12.2 6.5 .6 8.0 11.8 10.2 10.2 Commodities i_ less food 2.5 5.0 13.2 6.2 5. 1 4.9 7.7 14.3 11.5 1980: Jan___ Feb__. Mar__ Apr May__ June July__ Aug___ Sept.. Oct___ Nov_. Dec__. 1.4 1.3 1.3 .9 .9 1.0 .1 .8 1.0 1.0 1. 1 1.0 .1 -.2 .9 .5 .4 .5 1.0 1.9 1.7 .9 1.2 1.0 1.8 1.7 1.2 .5 .5 .4 .5 .9 1. 1 .9 .9 .6 .1,5 1.4 1.7 1. 5 1.5 1.7 -.6 .1 .7 1.2 1.3 1.4 15.7 16. 5 17.3 15.0 13. 1 11.4 8.0 7.6 7.8 12. 0 13. 5 13.2 8.9 4.9 3.3 5.0 7.4 5.8 7.6 14. 0 19.7 19.5 16. 5 13. 1 17.2 20. 1 20. 7 14.3 8.8 5.2 5.2 7.3 10. 6 12.7 12.4 9.9 17.7 18. 1 20. 1 20. 1 20.4 20.5 10.8 5.0 .7 8.3 13. 5 16.8 14.9 15.4 15.8 15.3 14.8 14. 3 11.4 10.3 9. 6 10.0 10. 5 10.5 8.9 8.3 7.7 6.9 6. 1 4.5 6.3 10.6 12.5 13.4 15.2 16.3 16.0 17.0 16. 9 15.7 14. 3 12.7 9.7 8. 1 7.9 8.9 9.8 10.2 16.7 17.0 18.2 18.9 19. 2 20.3 15.4 12.4 10.2 9.6 9.2 8.5 1981: Jan___ .7 —. 1 1.0 .9 11.8 8.4 10.2 15.3 11.9 13.8 11.4 11.8 Period 1972 1973 1974 1975.. 1976. 1977 1978 1979 1980 All items Food Services All items All items Food Commodities i less food Services 3.6 6.2 11.3 8. 1 7.3 7.9 9.3 13.7 14.2 i Annual changes are from December to December (unadjusted). NOTE.—Data beginning January 1978 relate to all urban consumers. Earlier data relate to urban wage earners and clerical workers. 24 Food Services Seasonally adjusted data revised beginning 1976. Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. PRICES RECEIVED AND PAID BY FARMERS Prices received by farmers fell 0.4 percent in February and prices paid by farmers rose 0.3 percent in the month ended February 15. INDEX, 1967=100 INDEX, 1967=100 (RATIO SCALE) 100 | i i i I i I II II < I M I III I I I I I JJJ.1 I 1 I 1 J II II III 1 II J I I I 1.1 1.1 1 I I II I n l I 1 I I | i M 1 I I I i I I I I I I I I (RATIO SCALE) I i I i I i I I I t I I I i i I I i I 100 RATIO 1 RATIO -I/ 80 80 1981 1973 I/ RATIO OF INDEX OF PRICES RECEIVED TO INDEX OF PRICES PAID. COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE [1967=100] Prices received by fa rmers Period All farm products 19731974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1980: Feb Mar Apr May June July AugSept Oct Nov Dec 1981: Jan Feb* 1 Includes 2 . . Crops Livestock and products Ratio 2 179 192 185 186 183 210 241 246 175 224 201 197 192 203 223 241 183 165 172 177 175 217 257 251 144 164 180 192 202 219 250 281 149 169 186 198 208 227 261 293 146 166 182 193 200 217 249 277 124 117 103 97 91 96 96 88 239 234 225 228 233 247 257 261 261 264 265 221 220 218 224 228 242 252 260 259 271 272 255 247 232 232 237 252 262 263 263 260 259 272 276 276 276 279 281 284 287 289 291 292 285 288 287 287 289 291 295 299 300 303 303 268 272 270 270 273 275 280 284 286 289 290 88 85 82 83 84 88 90 91 90 91 91 264 263 276 275 253 254 299 300 312 312 293 294 88 88 items not shown separately. Percentage ratio of index of prices received by fanners to index of prices paid, interest, taxes, and wage rates. Pric 3S paid by famners All commodi- Production items, ties, services, Production interest, interest, items taxes, taxes, and and wage wage rates * rates NOTE.—The official indexes are published on a 1910-14 base as required by law. The indexes have been converted to a 1967=100 base to facilitate comparison with other indexes. Source: Department of Agriculture. MONEY, CREDIT, AND SECURITY MARKETS MONEY STOCK MEASURES AND LIQUID ASSETS In January, the narrow measures of money were affected by inflows from demand and other accounts to NOW accounts, authorized nationwide on December 31, 1980. Growth in M-2 and M-3 accelerated. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS (RATIO SCALE) 2,400 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS'(RATIO SCALE) COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS Period 1974: Dec-;;.1,.,;,!,,...,™ 1975: Dee^vU-.--,,— 1976: Dee-.w 1977: Dee.. .,_„__.. 1978: Dee-_ 1979: Dec _ 1980: Dec 1980: Jan_ Feb Mar Apr, May June July Aug ____ Sept . Get Nov_ Dec 1981: Jan * [Averages of daily figures; billions of dollars, seasonally adjusted] M2 Ml-B M3 Ml-A L Ml-B plus overnight M2 plus RPs and Ml-A plus Eurodollars, large time MMMF deposits other shares, and and term M3 plus Currency checkable other liquid RPs at plus deposits at savings and small time commercial assets demand banks and banks and deposits at deposit^ K thrift thrift institutions Commercial banks and institutions thrift institutions 2 1, 244. 1 906. 2 1, 058. 6 275. 7 275. 3 289.0 1, 371. 4 1, 022. 4 1, 161. 0 287.9 307.7 1, 526. 1 1, 299. 7 305. 0 1, 166. 7 1, 294. 1 1, 460. 3 1, 720. 2 328.4 332.6 1, 934. 9 1, 401. 5 1, 623. 6 360. 1 351.6 2, 151. 8 386.9 1, 526. 0 1, 775. 5 369.8 1, 957. 9 411.9 1, 673. 4 3848 1, 534. 7 388.3 2, 166. 0 1, 786. 6 370.6 391.4 2, 188. 5 1, 805. 4 1, 547. 6 373.5 2, 203. 8 391.4 1, 554. 6 1, 813. 0 372.9 2, 213. 3 1, 550. 4 386. 3 1, 811. 9 366.7 1, 563. 7 1, 825. 7 2, 229. 8 367. 1 386. 1 2, 242. 7 391.3 1, 587. 6 1, 846. 2 370.9 2,258.2 395.5 1, 612. 5 1, 867. 7 373.5 2, 282. 7 1, 889. 5 402.7 1, 632. 5 379. 5 408.0 1, 644. 4 2, 306. 5 1, 904. 6 383.4 1, 921. 8 412.0 2, 319. 1 386.3 1, 656. 5 1, 946. 1 1, 670. 8 2, 346. 5 388.4 415. 0 1, 957. 9 1, 673. 4 384.8 411.9 1, 978. 4 416. 1 1, 681. 9 372.8 * Net of demand deposits due tc foreign commercial banks and official institutions. * Total M2 excludes demand deposits held by thrift institutions at commercial banks, not shown separately in components. 26 8 I*ercent change 3 Ml-A Ml-B 4.2 4.6 5.9 7.7 7. 1 5.2 4. 1 4.8 5.3 3.9 .2 -.5 .6 1.6 3.2 5.7 11.0 11.9 7.6 -.4 43 48 6.5 8.1 8.3 7.4 6.5 5.7 6.0 47 1.7 .8 2.3 3.7 5.9 8.7 13.7 15.5 10.8 10.7 M2 5.6 12.8 14. 1 10.9 8.3 8.9 9.7 7.7 7.6 7.0 5.4 6.3 8.2 10.4 11.3 11.9 14.2 142 11.1 8.8 M3 8.5 9.7 11.9 12.4 11.2 9.4 10.3 9.2 9.4 7.9 6.2 6,9 8.1 9.3 9.5 10. 4 12.5 13.6 12.5 12.2 Annual changes are from December to December and monthly changes are from 6 months earlier at a seasonally adjusted annual rate. NOTE.—See p. 27 for components. Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. COMPONENTS OF MONEY STOCK MEASURES AND LIQUID ASSETS [Averages of daily figures; billions of dollars, seasonally adjusted, except as noted] Overnight Money Over- market SavDe- Other repurnight chase Cur- mand check- agree- Euro- mutual ings dePeriod rency de- 1 able ments dollars fund shares posits posits deposits (RPs) (netl \lH3\iJ NSA NSA NSA NSA Dec: 1974. 67.8 1975. 73.8 1976. 80.7 1977. 88.7 1978_ 97.6 1979. 106.3 1980" 116. 4 207.4 214. 1 224.4 239.7 253.9 263.5 268. 4 17.0 27. 1 13. 6 17.6 21. 9 21.7 27.6 1980: Jan.. 107.3 Feb., 108. 1 Mar. 108.9 Apr.. 109.0 May. 110.2 June. 111.0 July. 112. 1 Aug.. 113.5 Sept. 113. 9 Oct.. 115. 1 Nov. 115.8 Dec.. 116.4 263.3 265.4 264. 0 257.7 256.9 259.9 261.4 266.0 269.5 271.2 272.6 268.4 17.7 17.9 18.4 19.5 19.0 20.4 22.0 23.2 24.6 25.7 26.6 27. 1 23.0 24.2 22.7 19.4 20.5 21.7 25.5 27.9 29.2 28. 1 27.9 27.6 4. 1 4. 1 3.6 2.7 2.8 2.9 3.6 3.7 3.7 4.4 4.7 4.6 49. 1 56.7 60.9 60.4 66.8 74.2 80.6 80.7 78.2 77.4 77.0 75.8 1981: Jan ». 116. 6 256.2 43.3 27.8 5.1 80.7 377.5 0.4 1. 1 2.7 4.2 8.6 7.2 7.5 0.0 .0 .0 1.0 2.0 3.6 4.6 Term Shortrepur- Term term nomi- nomi- chase Euro- Sav- Treas- BankCom1 nation nation agree- dollars ings ury merers time ments (net) bonds secu- accept- cial time (RPs) dederities ances paper posits 2 posits 2 NSA NSA Small Large 288.9 340.4 396.6 454.9 533.8 656. 2 144. 0 129.6 118. 0 145.2 194.7 219. 0 660.9 221.6 2.3 333.9 3.6 383.9 3. 4 447. 7 3.8 486.4 10.3 475. 8 43.6 417.0 75.8 393.6 412.4 404. 0 393.3 379.4 375.2 384.6 398. 0 408. 1 412. 1 414.2 407. 9 393.6 * Net of demand deposits due to foreign commercial banks and official institutions. 2 Small denomination and large denomination deposits are those issued in amounts of less than $100,000 and more than $100,000, respectively. de- de- 248.0 763.2 8.4 9.0 15.0 21. 0 27.3 30.5 36.5 741.6 763.2 226.8 229.8 238.8 248.0 30.3 30.3 28.9 29. 1 28.9 30.0 31. 1 33.8 33.5 35.5 36.5 36.5 777.8 257. 9 38.6 670. 2 685.7 705.3 715.3 715.8 712.4 712.6 716.4 723.6 227.4 229.5 232.4 233. 1 228.6 224.0 223. 3 63.2 67.2 13.0 71.8 18.4 76.6 30.0 80.6 43.1 80.0 53.4 76.8 80.7 89. 5 98.7 127.5 12.3 22.6 28.4 50.2 48. 1 51.8 63. 1 79.4 97.3 79.2 78. 1 76.8 75.2 74. 0 73.3 72.8 72.6 73.2 74.6 72.9 127.8 129.3 137. 2 147.2 152. 1 148.7 144.7 147.2 154.8 149.1 149.7 27.7 26.9 27.9 28.5 28.3 29. 1 28.9 2S.5 30.0 31.0 32.5 99.0 99.3 99.8 100. 6 99.5 96.5 95.8 96.6 98.7 99.0 99.2 8. 1 9.8 45.6 49.5 49.2 49.9 50.3 48.9 48.4 48.4 45.2 43.6 46. 1 10.7 8.5 9.0 NOTE.—NSA indicates data are not seasonally adjusted. See p. 26 for overall measures. Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. CONSUMER INSTALLMENT CREDIT [Millions of dollars; monthly data seasonally adjusted] Installertent credit e xtended * J Period Installirtent credit li quidated Net change* in amount outstanding T> Total l Automobile Revolving Total l Automobile Revolving Total l Automobile Revolving 173, 035 172, 765 180, 083 210, 740 257, 600 297, 668 324, 777 305, 887 49, 606 46, 514 52, 420 63, 743 75, 641 87, 981 93, 901 83, 002 28, 702 33, 213 36, 956 43, 934 87, 596 105, 125 120, 174 129, 580 152, 817 163, 276 172, 675 189, 179 222, 138 254, 589 286, 396 304, 477 43, 696 46, 019 49, 444 53, 278 60, 437 69, 245 79, 186 83, 037 26, 699 31, 243 35, 616 41, 764 81, 348 96, 090 111, 546 126, 655 20, 218 9,489 7,408 21, 561 35, 462 43, 079 38, 381 1,410 5, 910 495 2,976 10, 465 15, 204 18, 736 14, 715 -35 2,003 1,970 1,340 2,170 6,248 9,035 8,628 2,925 __ 26, 638 7,735 10, 146 24, 605 6, 721 9,745 2,033 1,014 401 1980: Jan Feb Mar_,_ T __ Apr Mav Jime___ July Aug Sept Oct. __ Ifov Dec 27, 923 27, 581 25, 881 23. 220 22, 093 22, 349 23, 997 26, 176 27, 064 27, 365 25, 991 27, 149 8,441 7,973 7,372 5, 922 5,533 5,550 6,068 7,400 7,518 7,544 7, 117 7,234 10, 500 10, 756 10, 634 10, 347 10, 302 10, 341 10, 679 10, 700 11, 143 11, 124 10, 953 11, 614 25, 196 25, 178 25, 227 24, 891 24, 770 24, 394 25, 196 25, 687 26, 009 26, 663 25, 152 25, 530 6,903 6,991 6,859 6, 565 6,574 6,576 6, 785 7,045 7,434 7,343 6,872 6,932 9,971 10, 034 10, 373 10, 677 10, 589 10, 436 10, 641 10, 419 10, 665 10, 851 10, 688 10,998 2,727 2,403 654 -1,671 -2, 677 -2, 045 -1,199 489 1, 055 702 839 1,619 1,538 982 513 — 643 -1,041 -1,026 -717 355 84 201 245 302 529 722 261 -330 -287 -95 38 281 478 273 265 616 1973__. _,.__..__ 1974 1975___ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ 1976_ 1977_ 1978 ___ 1979. 1980 1979: Dec «Includes "mobile home" and "other," not shown separately. Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. 27 BANK LOANS AND INVESTMENTS, AND RESERVES Bank credit growth picked up in January. Total reserves were unchanged. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE) 1,400 ALL COMMERCIAL 1,200 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE) 1,400 BANKS 1,200 1,000 1,000 800 800 600 600 AND LEASES 400 400 200 180 160 200 180 160 140 INVESTMENT IN OTHER SECURITIES 140 INVESTMENT IN "U.S. TREASURY SECURITIES 120 120 100 100 80 80 60 60 i Iiii 40 L-Ll 1973 1974 40 I I I I ! 1975 1977 1976 1978 1980 1979 1981 *SEASONALLY ADJUSTED, AVERAGES OF WEDNESDAY FIGURES SOURCE: BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM Total loans Period and investments 1974: Dec 1975: Dec 1976: Dec 1977: Dec 1978: Dee 1979: Dec 1980: Dec 1980: Jan Feb Mar Apr May June Julv..._ Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec. _ 713.6 744.6 804 3 891. 1 1, 014. 3 1, 132. 5 1, 234. 1 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Billions of dollars, seasonally adjusted, except as noted] Depositc>ry instituitions3 Allc ommereial t>anks l i Borrowiiigs (milReserves lions of dollars, Loans iand leases Investnients unadji listed) d CommerU .S. Other SeaNonRecial and Treasury Total Total Total 2 industrial secuborrowed sonal quired securities rities loans 32 703 35.94 36.41 36.66 519.9 140.0 197.3 53.7 13 3454 3440 127 516.9 3467 82. 1 145.7 189.8 12 62 34.90 3485 3463 5548 191.2 100. 6 149. 0 54 558 35.81 36.00 35.43 632. 1 211.2 99.5 159. 6 134 874 40.29 40.93 747.8 41. 16 93.4 173. 1 246.5 82 1,473 43. 13 41.98 847.2 43.46 93.8 191.5 290.5 38.44 116 1,617 39. 58 40. 13 910.1 323.1 109.6 2143 1, 144 8 1, 162. 7 1, 165. 2 1, 161. 0 1, 154. 9 1, 152. 0 _ 1, 160. 0 1, 177. 2 1, 191. 0 1, 204. 5 1, 221. 2 1, 234 1 858.5 872.7 8747 871.6 860.6 853.5 855.0 865.8 876.4 886.2 899.4 910. 1 295.6 301. 1 302.8 301.2 297.7 295.4 296.2 301.4 306.0 312.0 318.4 323. 1 1, 250. 8 921.5 327.9 1981: Jan 4 97.0 100.9 104 4 106.6 107.9 109.3 109.6 193. 1 195.2 196.0 196.2 199.7 201.5 2042 207.0 208.0 210.3 212.5 2143 43.44 43.35 43.67 44.85 4445 43.96 42. 78 40.75 41.52 41.73 41.23 40. 13 42.20 41.70 40.85 42.39 43.43 43.58 42.39 40.09 40.21 40.42 39. 17 38.44 43.19 43. 14 43.48 44 65 4427 43.76 42.50 40.45 41.26 41.52 40.73 39.58 1,241 1,655 2,824 2, 455 1,018 380 395 659 1,311 1,335 2, 156 1,617 75 96 150 155 63 12 7 10 26 67 99 116 112. 7 216.5 40. 10 38.70 39.56 1,405 120 93.2 948 945 93.2 946 » Data are averages of Wednesday figures. * Excludes loans to commercial banks in the United States. Data are averages of daily figures. Reserves series reflects actual reserve requirement percentages with no adjustment to eliminate the effect of changes in Regulations D and M. Prior to November 13,1980, the date of implementation of the Monetary Control Act, data relate only to member banks. 3 28 1 Data for loans and investments are estimates. Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. SOURCES AND USES OF FUNDS, NONFARM NONFINANCIAL CORPORATE BUSINESS [Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Sources Uses External Credil i market i unds Period Total Inter-1 nal Total Total Securities and mortgages Loans and shortterm paper 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980* 107.7 133. 3 166.5 209. 1 201.5 164.9 220.3 259.8 320.4 375.4 318. 0 61.8 73.5 85.0 91.7 85.6 119.7 134.2 156. 1 171.9 190.6 197. 0 45.9 59.8 81.4 117.3 115.8 45. 2 86. 1 103.7 148.5 184.8 121.0 40.8 45.3 58.2 73.0 82.2 37.9 60. 7 79.9 94.8 114.3 101. 1 32.2 41.2 40.6 37.0 39.2 49.3 48.7 46. 1 49. 2 52.5 62.0 4. 1 17.6 36. 1 43.0 -11.4 11.9 33.8 45.6 61.9 39. 1 1980:1 II III IV* 356.8 232.9 326.9 355.5 194. 9 192.9 199.2 201.2 161. 9 40.0 127. 7 154. 3 124.5 57.3 103.5 119. 1 56.4 59.0 67. 1 65.5 68. 1 -1.7 36.4 53.5 1 Undistributed profits (after inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments), capital consumption allowances, and foreign branch profits, dividends, and subsidiaries'earnings retained abroad. 2 Consists of tax liabilities, trade debt, and direct foreign investment in the U.S. DisIncrepcrease ancy (sources in less finan• i cial uses) assets Total Capital expenditures 3 25.4 23.8 53.7 70.4 19.9 7.3 100.8 124.5 151.0 194.8 193.4 151. 1 199.5 231.6 295.6 346. 0 286.6 82.0 87.7 100.9 124.3 141. 2 110.0 147.5 177.3 205. 6 229.4 225. 1 18.8 36.8 50. 1 70.5 52.2 41.2 52.0 54.2 90. 0 116.6 61.5 15.5 14.3 8. 1 13.8 20.8 28.3 24.8 29.4 31.4 37.4 -.17. 3 24.2 35.3 326.9 195.7 301.7 322. 3 234.0 218.4 213. 8 234.3 92.9 -22.8 87.9 88. 0 30.0 37.2 25.2 33.2 Other 2 5. 1 14.5 23.2 44.3 33.7 8.5 6.9 8.8 3 Plant and equipment, residential structures, inventory investment, and mineral rights from U.S. Government. NOTE.—Series revised. Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. CURRENT ASSETS AND LIABILITIES OF NONFINANCIAL CORPORATIONS [Billions of dollars, except as noted] Cur rent liabil [ties Curreiat assets End of period Total Cash Notes U.S. governand Invenment acsecuri- counts tories ties receivable Other current assets Total^ Net Notes Other and current accounts liabilitlAQ payable working capital Current ratio l SEC series:2 1970 492.3 1971 .. 529. 6 1972 _ 599. 3 1973™. 697.8 1974 790.7 3 FTC-FRB series: 1974 735.4 1975 759.0 1976 826.8 902.1 1977. 1978 1, 030. 0 1979 1, 200. 9 50.2 53.3 59.0 66.3 71. 1 11.0 10.6 12.8 12.3 7.7 206. 1 221. 1 248.2 288.5 322. 1 193.3 200.4 225.7 263.9 313.6 35.0 43. 8 55.8 66. 4 71.7 304. 9 326.0 375. 6 450. 9 530.4 211. 3 220. 5 282. 9 340. 3 402.3 93.6 105. 5 92.7 110.7 128. 1 187.4 203. 6 223.7 246.9 260.3 1. 615 1.625 1.595 1. 548 1.491 73.2 82. 1 88.2 95.8 104.5 116. 1 11. 1 19.0 23.4 17.6 16.3 15.6 265.8 272. 1 292.8 324.7 383.8 456.8 319.5 315.9 342.4 374.8 426.9 501.7 65. 9 69.9 80. 1 89.2 98.5 110.8 453, 4 451. 6 494.7 549.4 665.5 809. 1 269.8 264.2 281.9 313.2 373.7 456.3 183.6 187.4 212.8 236. 2 291.7 352.8 282.0 307.4 332.2 352.7 364.6 391.8 1.622 1.681 1.672 1.642 1.548 1.484 IV __ 1, 081. 0 1, 108. 2 1, 169. 5 ... 1, 200. 9 102. 7 100. 1 103.7 116. 1 17.4 18.6 15.8 15.6 408. 1 421. 1 453.0 456.8 451.4 465.2 489. 4 501.7 101.4 103. 2 107.7 110.8 705.4 724.7 777.8 809. 1 391.3 406.4 438.8 456.3 314. 1 318.3 339.0 352.8 375.6 383.5 391. 7 391.8 1.532 1.529 1.504 1.484 1980: I_ II __ 1, 235. 2 1, 233. 8 110.2 111.4 15. 1 13.9 471.2 464. 2 519.5 525.7 119.3 118.7 838.3 828. 1 467.9 463. 1 370.4 364. 9 397.0 405. 7 1.474 1.490 1979: I II III * Total current assets divided by total current liabilities. * Based on data from Statistics of Income, Department of the Treasury. Based on data from Quarterly Financial Report for Manufacturing, Mining, and Trade Corporations, Federal Trade Commission. NOTE.—SEC series not available after 1974. 1 See Federal Reserve Bulletin, July 1978, for details regarding the series. Sources: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Federal Tradt Commission, and Securities and Exchange Commission. 29 INTEREST RATES AND BOND YIELDS Short-term interest rates came down somewhat in late February, but longer-term bond yields registered smaller declines. PERCENT PER ANNUM PERCENT PER ANNUM CORPORATE Aaa BONDS (MOODY'S) 1973 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS SOURCE: SEE TABLE BELOW [Percent per annum] U.S. Trejasury seeurilty yields Period 3-month bills1 1975 1976 1977 . 1978 —~ 1979 1980 1980: Feb Mar Apr May June July 5. 838 4. 989 5. 265 7. 221 10. 041 11. 506 12. 814 15. 526 14. 003 9. 150 __ 6.995 8. 126 Aug 9.259 n_ 10. 321 11. 580 13. 888 15. 661 14. 724 14. 905 1981: Jan 31 Feb 7._— 14 21. 28 Mar 7 15. 199 14. 657 15. 397 15. 464 14. 103 14. 463 Sept Oct Nov Dec 1981: Jan Feb Week ended: Constant n laturities 2 3-year 10-year High-grade Corporate Prime communicipal mercial Aaa paper, bonds (Standard 4-6 3 (Moody's) & Poor's) months 4 7.49 6.77 6.69 8.29 9.71 11. 55 12.84 14.05 12. 02 9.44 8.91 9.27 10. 63 11.57 12. 01 13.31 13.65 13.01 13.65 7.99 7.61 7.42 8.41 9.44 11. 46 12.41 12.75 11.47 10. 18 9.78 10.25 11. 10 11. 51 11.75 12.68 12.84 12.57 13. 19 6.89 6. 49 5.56 5.90 6.39 8.51 8.04 9.09 8.40 7.37 7.60 8.08 8.62 8.95 9. 11 9.55 10.09 9.65 10.03 8.83 8.43 8.02 8.73 9.63 11.94 12. 38 12.96 12. 04 10. 99 10.58 11. 07 11. 64 12.02 12.31 12.97 13.21 12. 81 13.35 6.33 5.35 5.60 7.99 4 10. 91 12.29 13.60 16. 50 14. 93 9.29 8.03 8.29 9.61 11.04 12.32 14.73 16.49 15. 10 14.87 13. 13 13.41 13.86 13.53 13.80 12.74 12.95 13.39 13. 16 13.32 9.89 9.85 9.99 10.09 10. 17 —. 12.98 13.07 13.41 13.51 13.45 15. 02 14.90 15.20 15. 02 14.45 1 Rate on new issues within period; bank-discount basis. Yields on the more actively traded issues adjusted to constant maturities by the Treasury Department. * Weekly data are Wednesday figures. « Beginning November 1,1979, data are for 6 months paper. * Average effective rate for year; opening and closing rate for month and week. 2 30 Discount rate Prime rate charged Bank) • banks 5 (N.Y. F.R. by 7.86 6.25 6. 84 5. 50 6. 83 5.46 9.06 7.46 12.67 10. 28 15.27 11.77 12-13 15^-163^ 3 13-13 16 4-19K 13-13 19>i-19^ 13-12 *18l/2-14 14-42 12-11 12-11 11-10 10-10 11-I1H 10-11 11H-13 11-11 13^2-14/2 11-12 14K2-1734 12-13 17*A-2iy2 21H-20 13-13 20-19 13-13 13-13 13-13 13-13 13-13 13-13 13- Newhome mortgage vields (FHLBB)« 9.01 8.99 9. 01 9.54 10.77 12.65 11.93 12.62 13.03 13. 68 12.66 12.48 12. 25 12.35 12.61 13.04 13.28 13.28 20-20 20-19K 19M-19K 19K2-19H 19H-19 19- * Effective rate (in the primary market) on conventional mortgages, reflecting fees and charges as well as contract rate and assumed, on the average, repayment at end of 10 years. Rates beginning January 1973 not strictly comparable with prior rates. *On May 1,1680 range of 18^-19 was in effect. Sources: Department of the Treasury, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Federal Home Loan Bank Board, Moody's Investors Service, and Standard & Poor's Corporation. COMMON STOCK PRICES AND YIELDS Stock prices continued to back off a bit through late February and then recovered somewhat in the last week. INDEX, DEC 31,1965=50 INDEX, DEC 31,1965=50 80 70 - COMPOSITE PRICE INDEX STOCK (NYSE) EARNINGS-PRICE RATIO ON COMMON STOCKS 5 - - 5 1973 1981 SOURCES: NEW YORK STOCK EXCHANGE AND STANDARD & POOR'S CORPORATION COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS Common stock yields (percent)» Cominon stock pirices l Period Composite Industrial Transportation 1975 1976 1977 1978___ ... 1979__._— 1980 1980: Feb... Mar Apr... May June July....... Aug Sept Get Nov Dec 1981: Jan Feb_ Week ended: 1981: Jan 17____ 24 31 Feb 7 14 21.. .. 28 Utility 45.73 5446 53. 69 53.70 58.32 68. 10 66.06 59.52 58.47 61.38 65.43 68.56 70.87 73. 12 75.17 78. 15 76.69 76. 24 73.52 50. 52 60.44 57.86 58.23 64.76 78. 70 76.42 68.71 66.31 69.39 74. 47 78.67 82. 15 84.92 88.00 92.32 90.37 89. 23 85. 74 31. 10 39.57 41.09 43.50 47.34 60.61 57.92 51.77 48.62 51. 07 54. 04 59. 14 62. 48 65.89 70.76 77.23 75. 74 74.43 72.76 31.50 36.97 40. 92 39. 22 38.21 37.35 36. 22 33.38 35.29 37.31 38.53 38.77 38. 18 38.77 38.44 38.35 37.84 38.53 37.59 76.75 75. 52 74.68 73. 79 73.47 72.95 73.75 89.91 88.31 87. 25 85.97 85.59 85.08 86.17 74. 46 74.27 73.66 74.36 73.09 71.50 71.82 3R57 38.39 38. 08 37.84 37. 75 37.43 37. 32 1 Average of daily closing prices, a8 Includes all the stocks (more than 1,500) listed on the NYSE. Includes 30 stocks. «Includes 500 stocks. * Staiidard & Poor's series. Dividend-price ratios based on Wednesday closing prices. Earnings-price ratios based on prices at end of quarter. Standard & Poor's DowEarningsJones composite Dividendprice price index industrial ratio ratio Finance average 3 (1941-43= 10) 4 9.15 47. 14 431 802. 49 86.16 52. 94 974.92 102. 01 8.90 3.77 4.62 55. 25 98.20 10.79 89463 56.65 12. 03 96.02 820. 23 5.28 61.42 13. 46 5.47 844 40 103. 01 64.25 5.26 891. 41 118. 78 61.84 5.24 115.34 878. 22 1498 5.87 54.71 803. 56 10469 57.32 6.05 102. 97 786. 33 5.77 107. 69 61.47 828. 19 5.39 65. 16 869. 86 114.55 13.08 5. 20 66.76 909.79 119. 83 67.22 5.06 123. 50 947. 33 11.78 490 69. 33 126. 51 946. 67 480 130. 22 68.29 949. 17 463 67.21 135. 65 971. 08 474 133. 48 67.46 945. 96 480 70.04 132. 97 962. 13 5.00 68.48 128. 40 945. 50 New York Stock Exeb ange indexe s(Dec. 31, 1 965=50) * 70.62 69.03 68.43 68.63 68.51 67.72 68.92 968. 72 949. 71 945. 43 942. 93 941. 29 939. 06 957. 42 133. 85 131. 57 130. 22 128. 84 128. 24 127. 37 128. 93 476 483 4.89 4.97 5.00 5.00 5.02 NOTE.—All data relate to stocks listed on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE). Sources: New York Stock Exchange, Dow-Jones & Company, Inc., and Standard & Poor's Corporation. FEDERAL FINANCE FEDERAL BUDGET RECEIPTS AND OUTLAYS AND DEBT In the first 4 months of fiscal 1981, there was a budget deficit of $40.4 billion, compared to a deficit of $28.9 billion a year earlier. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 800 800 RECEIPTS AND OUTLAYS' 700 700 600 600 500 500' OUTLAYS 400 400 300 300 200 50 50 SURPLUS (*) OR DEFICIT (-) 0 0 -50 -50 -100 -100 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1982 19S1 FISCAL YEARS SOURCES. DEPARTMENT OF THE TREASURY AND OFFICE OF MANAGEMENT AND BUDGET COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Billions of dollars] Period Fiscal year or period: 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 Transition quarter 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 * 1982 !. .. Cumulative total, first 4 months: Fiscal year 1980 _ _ Fiscal year 1981 _ i Estimates from Budget of the United States Government, Fiscal Year 1982, January 15,1981. 32 Outlays Receipts Surplus or deficit ( — ) Federal debt ( end of period) Held by the public 188.4 208.6 232.2 264.9 281.0 300.0 81.8 357.8 402. 0 465. 9 520.0 607.5 711.8 211.4 232.0 247. 1 269.6 326.2 366.4 94.7 402.7 450. 8 493.6 579.6 662.7 739.3 -23.0 -23.4 -148 -4.7 —45. 2 -66.4 -13.0 -45.0 -48.8 -27.7 -59.6 -55.2 -27.5 409. 5 437.3 468.4 486.2 544. 1 631.9 646.4 709. 1 780.4 833.8 914. 3 992. 4 1, 057. 7 304. 3 323.8 343.0 346. 1 396. 9 480.3 498.3 551.8 610.9 644. 6 715. 1 787. 1 832. 1 157.5 179.2 186.4 219.7 -28.9 -40.4 854.7 940. 5 668.8 749.5 Sources: Department of the Treasury and Office of Management and Budget. FEDERAL BUDGET RECEIPTS BY SOURCE AND OUTLAYS BY FUNCTION In the first 4 months of fiscal 1981, budget receipts were $21.7 billion higher than a year earlier and budget outlays were $33.3 billion higher. X^ BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS j 200 100 600 600 OUTLAYS 500 500 400 400 NONDEFENSE \ 300 300 200 200 NATIONAL DEFENSE 100 100 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1981 1980 1982 V FISCAL YEARS COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS SOURCES: DEPARTMENT OF THE TREASURY AND OFFICE OF MANAGEMENT AND BUDGET [Billions of dollars] ()utlays Rece ipts Nationa]I defense Period Fiscal year or period : 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 Transition quarter 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 * __ 1982 i Total 188.4 208. 6 232.2 264.9 281. 0 ___ 300. 0 81.8 357.8 402.0 465.9 520. 0 _ 607.5 711.8 Cumulative total, first 4 months : Fiscal year 1980 _. Fiscal year 1981 _ 157.5 179.2 Total 211.4 232.0 247. 1 269. 6 326.2 366.4 94.7 402. 7 450. 8 493. 6 579. 6 662.7 739.3 75.8 76.6 74.5 77. 8 85.6 89.4 22. 3 97. 5 105. 2 117.7 135.9 161. 1 184.4 74.5 75. 1 73.2 77. 6 84.9 87.9 21.9 95.6 103. 0 115.0 132.8 157.6 180.0 186.4 219.7 42. 9 50. 1 42. 0 49. 0 86.2 94. 7 103.2 119. 0 122.4 131.6 38.8 157.6 181.0 217.8 244. 1 284.0 331.7 54 9 60.0 65. 7 64.6 66.0 64. 6 75.4 81.7 92.8 107.4 118.0 127.0 34.5 145.2 161. 1 182.4 211.4 257.5 315.5 84.7 96.7 15. 1 13. 8 57.7 68.7 26. 8 32.2 36.2 38. 6 40.6 41.4 8.5 1 Estimates from Budget of the United States Government, Fiscal Year 1982, January 15,1961. Interna- Health and In- Other Depart- tional income ment of affairs security terest Defense, military Indi- Corpovidual ration Other income income taxes taxes Total 4. 1 4.7 4. 1 5.7 6. 9 5.6 2.2 4.8 5.9 6.1 10.7 11.3 12.2 4. 0 3.3 70. 1 81.4 91.8 106.5 136.2 160.8 41.5 176.7 189.9 209.8 251.3 297.7 329.6 19. 6 20.6 22. 8 28. 0 30.9 34.5 38.0 44.0 52.6 64.5 80.4 89. 9 7.2 41.8 48. 8 53.9 51. 6 66.5 76. 1 21.5 85.7 105.9 107.5 117.3 112.3 123.2 77.9 95.4 20.5 25.3 41.0 45.5 Sources: Department of the Treasury and Office oi Management and Budget. 33 FEDERAL SECTOR, NATIONAL INCOME ACCOUNTS BASIS In the third quarter of 1980, according to current estimates, Federal receipts rose $19.9 billion (annual rate) and expenditures rose $27.7 billion, yielding a deficit of $74.2 billion, $7.7 billion higher than in the second quarter. In the fourth quarter, according to revised estimates, expenditures rose $24.4 billion/ receipts data are incomplete. BULKDNS 700 , BILLIONS OF DO LLARS 700 OF DOLLARS SEASOI*JALLY ADJUSTED ANh UAL RATES ..'X 600 _ Cf\f\ _ crjn -^ EXPEN DITURES 400 — -•"* +*( 300 ^^ d V ^^ *«* - 200 Ann / s/ s> —x i l l I I I X i 50 ^-r r---^ / - 300 I I I I I | I I I DEFICIT -50 1flA WMMV® 1<?75 1974 i i i i i i I I I K N 200 50 •j i Illl••II Q 400 RECEIPTS i SURPLUS 1973 i i ,V""' ' **d r X ... 1976 1978 1977 mm B 1979 ll - -50 1981 1980 CALENDAR YEARS SOURCE. DEPARTMENT O F COMMERCE COUNCIL O F ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Bill]tons of d<)llars; quarterly data at sea;sonally adjuf ited annual irates] Period Surplus F€jderal Gcjvernmeiit expentlitures Federal (jiovernm ent receipts Subsidies Less: deficit GrantsWage less ( } Indirect ContriPurin-aid - ' , Personal Corpocurrent accruals national chases Trans- to State Net rate business butions tax and income Total nontax profits tax and for Total of goods fer pay- and interest surplus of less and tax ments local nontax social inand paid Govern- disreceipts accruals services accruals surance ment en- burse- product governterprises ments accounts ments Fiscal year: 1977 365.9 414.2 1978 1979 408.7 1980 527.3 166.4 186.4 223. 1 249.7 58.8 67.2 75.8 70.6 245 27.2 29. 1 35.7 116.2 133.4 152. 7 171.3 411.7 450. 5 494.7 57a2 140.3 150.7 163.4 190.2 169.8 182.2 201.8 239.3 66.3 74.7 79. 1 86.7 28.4 33. 5 40.6 51.2 7.0 9.6 9.8 10.8 0.0 -.0 .0 .0 -45.8 -36.3 -140 -50.9 Calendar year: 375. 1 1977 1978 431.5 494.4 1979 1980 » 539.4 477.0 1979: I !!___ 485.9 III.. 500.6 IV__. 5140 1980: I 528.4 II. __ 520.9 III.. 540.8 IV *_ 170. 1 194.9 231.4 257.8 216.7 225.7 236.2 247. 1 246. 9 252.0 259.4 273.0 61.6 71.2 746 25.0 28. 1 29.4 40.6 29.4 29.4 29.3 29.6 31.9 38.7 42. 9 48.9 118.5 137.2 159. 0 172.2 155.5 157.4 159.9 163.0 169.2 169.3 171.8 178.6 421. 5 460.7 509. 2 601.6 488.4 494 0 515.8 538.6 5647 587.3 615. 0 639.4 143.9 153.4 167.9 198.9 1648 163.6 165. 1 178. 1 190.0 198.7 194.9 212. 1 172.8 185.6 209. 1 249.4 196.8 201.4 216. 6 221.7 228.9 236.0 265.3 267.6 67.5 77.3 80.4 87.9 78.2 77.8 80.8 84.9 85.5 87.2 87.7 91.4 29. 1 35.2 42.3 53.4 40.0 42.0 42. 9 44 4 50.3 544 53.5 55.3 8.2 9.3 9.4 12.0 8.5 9.2 10.5 9.5 10. 1 11.0 13.7 13. 1 .0 .0 -.0 .0 -.0 .0 .0 0 .0 .0 .0 .0 -46.4 -29.2 -148 -62.3 -11.5 -8. 1 -15.2 -245 -36.3 -66.5 -742 ea7 75.3 73.5 75.3 743 80. 5 60.9 66.7 Sources: Department of Commerce (Bureauof Economic Analysis), Department of the Treasury, and Office of Management and Budget. 34 INTERNATIONAL STATISTICS INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION AND CONSUMER PRICES—MAJOR INDUSTRIAL COUNTRIES [1967=100] In dustrial produc tion (seaisonally iadjustec 1) Period 1974 1975 1976 1977._ 1978 1979 1980 »„ 1980: Feb Mar.... Apr Mav June.... July.... Aug Sept.... Oct "... Nov •*.. Dec "... 1981: Jan'—. United States Canada 129.3 117.8 130.5 138.2 146. 1 152.5 147. 1 152.6 152. 1 148.3 144.0 141.5 140.4 141.8 144. 1 146.9 149. 4 150.9 151.8 147.5 139. 6 147.3 150.5 156.7 164. 0 ,_ 162.9 166.0 162.3 158.9 157.6 157. 2 158.9 161.8 163.1 164. 4 France Germany Italy 183. 1 148 139 163. 9 182.0 149 152 189. 7 155 201. 1 161 217.7 ., 232.5 166 241.3 166 233.1 166 236. 9 234.4 160 232.1 160 165 233. 1 222.1 165 156 231.3 160 233.3 230.2 156 233.6 145. 1 137. 1 149. 1 152.7 155. 3 163.2 140.6 127.6 143.5 145. 1 147.9 157. 6 165.4 174.9 174.2 176.6 162.5 167.1 165.2 142.7 160.9 163.4 169.9 159.4 Japan 169 169 168 164 163 164 161 160 163 164 Con*sumer p rices (uiladjustec I) United United CanKing- States1 ada Japan France dom 120.0 114.3 117.4 123.0 126.8 131.4 147.7 161.2 170.5 181.5 195.4 217.4 246.8 236.4 239.8 242.5 244.9 247.6 247.8 249.4 251.7 253. 9 256.2 258.4 260.5 127.2 125.8 124.0 123.8 123.9 122.8 119. 1 117.3 117.8 117-8 • Beginning January 1978 data relate to all urban consumers. Source: National sources as reported by Department of Commerce, Inter- 144.5 160.1 172. 1 185.9 202.5 221.0 243.5 233 3 235.8 237.2 240.0 242.7 244.5 246,8 249.0 251.2 254.3 255.8 259.1 184.0 205.8 224.9 243.0 252.3 261.3 282.2 273.3 275.5 280.2 282. 7 283.5 284.2 283.7 288.1 288. 5 289. 1 287.2 160.0 178. 9 196. 1 214.5 233.9 259.1 293.6 280.2 283.4 286.7 289.3 291. 1 295.5 298.4 301.0 304. 3 306.4 309.1 Germany 136. 1 144.2 150.4 155.9 160.2 166.8 175. 9 172.8 173. 8 174.9 175.6 176.5 176.8 177.0 177.0 177.3 178.3 179. 4 180.9 Italy 159.7 186.8 218. 1 255.2 286.2 328.5 398.1 3743 378. 2 384.3 388.2 391.7 398.7 403.5 411.6 418.6 427.4 433.0 United Kingdom 174.3 216.5 252.4 292.4 316.6 359. 0 423.6 399.7 405.1 419.0 422. 8 426.8 430.4 431.3 434. 1 436.8 440.3 442.7 445.5 national Trade Administration, Office of Planning and Research, in International Economic Indicators. U.S. MERCHANDISE EXPORTS AND IMPORTS [Millions of dollars; monthly data seasonally adjusted] Merellandise exports l Merc mndise imports 1 Domes ti e exports$ Period Total domes* tic and foreign Total exports 2 Ge neral im ports Food, Crude Food, Crude bever- mate- Manu* bever- mate- ManiH fae2 faerials ages, rials ages, tured tured Total and and to- and and togoods goods bacco fuels fuels bacco P.a.s. valu<i 5 Monthly average: 1973 _ _ _ 5,902 1974 8,167 5,811 8,053 ,078 , 269 895 1, 317 1974 8, 167 1975 8,966 1976 9,596 1977 10, 096 1978 11,965 1979 15,138 1980 18, 386 1980: Jan... 17, 419 Feb.... 16, 984 Mar... 18, 265 Apr 18, 567 May 17, 647 June.. 18, 440 July... 18, 267 Aug._ 19, 087 Sept... 18, 828 Oct... 19, 214 Nov... 18, 715 Dee__. 19, 251 1981: Jan "_. 18, 825 8, 053 8,842 9,456 9, 912 11,753 14,869 18, 036 17, 079 16, 695 17, 887 18, 228 17, 270 18, 059 17, 953 18, 771 18, 521 18, 770 18, 344 18, 918 18, 459 ,269 ,399 ,436 1,330 1,717 2,049 2,534 2,208 2,176 2,535 2,375 2,153 2,365 2,445 2,534 2,724 2,886 2,909 3,099 2,926 1,317 1,266 1,341 1,548 1, 746 2,352 2,810 2,847 2,811 2,961 2,877 2,891 2,867 2,825 3, 149 2,752 2, 554 2,447 2,746 2,896 Custonris value 3,728 5,294 5,790 8, 450 5,294 8,387 5,913 8,048 6, 437 10,084 6,679 12, 307 7,873 14, 332 9,716 17,188 11,991 20, 406 11,364 21,142 11, 253 21, 779 11, 557 20,947 11,860 19, 766 11,541 20, 587 12, 124 20, 353 12, 227 19, 139 12, 448 19, 713 12, 483 19, 941 12, 473 20, 347 12, 241 19, 860 12, 368 1 21, 436 11,913 j 23, 194 Department of Defense shipments of grant-aid military supplies and equipment under the Military Assistance Program are excluded from totals for all periods and from monthly detail beginning January 197S. t J° i inc !ud,lses commodities and transactions not classified according to kind. arrlTa a £°<, /cost . of imported goods other than intransit shipments. TT M/-J » insurance, and freight) import value at first port of entry in tht United btates. Data for 1973 are estimates. •*~*if f * (?ee alon8?de sniP> val«e basis: at U.S. port of exportation for export and at foreign port of exportation for imports. Men:'handise trade balance ExExports (f.tl.S.) ports Exports (f.a.s.) (f.a.s.) less Total imless less (e.i.f. imports imvalue) * ports ports (e.i.f.) (customs (f.a.s.) value^ 770 892 F.a.s. 892 827 991 1,186 1, 312 1,478 1,546 1, 663 1,411 1,558 1,498 1,536 1,592 1,594 1, 467 1,391 1,583 1,680 1,583 1,748 1, 120 2,653 value § 2,672 2,716 3,457 4,463 4, 325 5,949 7,831 8, 145 9,173 8,577 7,744 8,034 8, 174 6,853 7,292 7,112 7,506 7,059 8,331 9,041 3,750 4, 684 4,602 4,257 5,398 6, 379 8,360 9,357 10, 427 10, 815 10, 576 10, 345 9,971 10, 421 10, 063 10, 138 10, 390 10, 524 10, 520 10, 572 10, 897 11, 777 6, 131 9, 033 112 -283 —221 -229 -366 —866 —283 —221 9,033 918 312 8,654 853 —581 —488 —1, 229 10, 825 13, 130 -2, 297 —2,211 —3, 034 15, 258 -2,473 -2, 367 -3,293 18, 238 -2, 117 -2, 050 -3, 101 -2, 020 -3,030 21,415 -3, 723 -4, 880 22, 299 -4, 794 -5, 963 22,947 -2, 682 -3, 783 22, 048 -1, 198 -2, 245 20, 812 -2, 941 -4, 036 21, 683 -1,912 -2, 963 21, 403 -872 -1,808 20, 074 -626 -1,578 20, 665 -1, 112 -2, 008 20, 837 - 1, 134 -2, 031 21, 244 -1,145 -2, 036 20, 751 -2, 185 -3, 113 22, 364 -4, 370 -5,440 24, 265 NOTE.—Data beginning 1975 not strictly comparable with earlier data. Data for 1980 revised. Data for 1980 and 1981 include trade of the U.S. Virgin Islands, except that for 1980 Virgin Islands exports are reflected only in the figures for total domestic and foreign exports. Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census. 35 U.S. INTERNATIONAL TRANSACTIONS Although the merchandise trade deficit rose in the fourth quarter of 1980f the deficit for the year as a whole ($26.7 billion) was $2.6 billion lower than in 1979. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 10 10 -15 1972 1980 SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Millions of dollars; quarterly data seasonally adjusted] Inviistment iiicomes M erchandise 12 Period 1973 1974 1975 1976 1§77_ 1978. „_-_ 1979 1980 * Exports Imports WA+ jw e \i • halUi**— ance Re- • Payceipts ments 71, 410 -70,499 911 21, 808 -9, 655 98, 306 -103,649 -5,343 27, 587 -12,084 107, 088 -98, 041 9, 047 25, 351 -12,564 114, 745 -124,051 -9, 306 29, 286 -13, 311 120, 816 -151,689 -30,873 32, 587 -14,598 142, 054 -175,813 -33,759 42, 972 -22, 073 182, 069 -211,453 -29, 384 65, 970 — 33, 460 221, 974 -248, 709 26, 735 -7,225 -7, 980 -8, 731 -9, 524 1979:I___ II— IIIIV. , 41, 807 42, 817 47, 206 50, 239 -46,922 -50,876 -54,259 — 59,396 1980: 1.... II III". 54, 603 54, 606 56,184 56, 581 -65,452 -10,849 20, 846 -10,752 -62, 108 -7,502 16, 641 -10,508 -59,009 -2, 825 19, 113 -10,646 — 62, 140 -5,559 rvx_ 1 Excludes military grants. 1 Adjusted from Census data 3 -5, 115 14, 263 -8, 059 15, 250 -7, 053 18, 050 -9, 157 18, 407 for differences in timing and coverage. Fees and royalties from U.S. direct investments abroad or from foreign direct investments in the United States are excluded from investment income and included in other services, net. 36 Net NetNet travel Other servand miliices, transtary net 1 trans- portation actions receipts 12, 153 -2, 070 -3, 158 15, 503 -1,653 -3, 188 12, 787 -746 -2,792 15, 975 559 -2,558 17,989 1, 628 -3,293 886 -3, 188 20, 899 32, 510 — 1, 275 -2, 695 Balance on goods and services * Remittances, pensions, and other unilateral trans^ fers 1 Balance on current account 3,184 11, 021 -3,881 7,140 2, 124 3,986 9,309 -7, 186 4,598 22, 893 -4, 613 18, 280 9, 382 -4, 998 4,384 4,711 5, OS6 -9,464 -4, 605-14,068 5,959 -9,204 -5,055 -14,259 -788 4,878 -5,666 5, 806 2,732 -110 2,506 -250 -1,324 1,408 -1,383 -1,493 1,099 -1,407 — 1,552 -1,802 7, 038 7,270 9,319 8,883 -29 -102 -443 -700 -611 -637 —834 -613 1,448 1,428 1,524 1,405 10, 094 6, 133 8,467 -922 -944 -632 -690 -296 -248 -798 -1,812 —2, 610 1,570 1, 557 -1,105 -1,326 -2, 431 4,900 6,377 -1,477 1,618 NOTE.—Merchandise data for 1979 and 1980 are as revised in the January 1981 issue; other data to be revised late?. Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. U.S. INTERNATIONAL TRANSACTIONS—Continued In the third quarter, capital outflows fell by $5.5 billion, to a rate of $20.2 billion. Recorded capital inflows increased by $3.1 billion, to a rate of $11.0 billion. The statistical discrepancy, which had soared to over $20 billion in the second quarter, was sharply reduced. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 40 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 40 -30 -40 -40 1972 1980 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE [Millions of dollars; quarterly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted] U.S. assets abroad, net [increase/capit al outflow ( -)] Period Total 1973,.. 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 9 1979: !..__ II... III_»_ IV.._ 1980: I..— II..III 9, IV 9 U.S. official reserve assets l 2 -22, 874 158 -34, 745 -1,467 -39,703 -849 -51,269 -2,558 -35, 793 -375 -61, 191 732 -61,774 -1,133 — 8, 154 -7,768 -3, 585 -15,300 322 -25, 215 2, 779 -13,492 -649 -12,711 -3, 268 -25, 712 502 -20, 196 -1,109 -4,279 Foreigii assets in the U.S., net [inerease/e«ipital inflow c+)p Other U.S. Government assets U.S. private assets -2, 644 366 -3,474 -4,214 -3,693 -4,644 -3,783 -20, 388 -33,643 -35,380 -44, 498 -31,725 -57, 279 -56, 858 6,026 18,388 10, 546 34, 241 7, 027 15, 670 17, 693 36, 518 36, 575 50, 741 33,293 64, 096 37,575 -14,271 12, 362 23, 696 8,643 18, 826 14, 167 30, 804 51,845 -1,102 -991 -766 -925 -1,467 -1,191 -1,320 -3, 081 -14,631 -27, 228 -11,918 -7,976 -25,023 -17,767 -8, 744 2,201 6,407 -10,095 5,789 24, 941 4,025 -1,221 7, 194 -7, 215 7,775 7,949 8,025 11, 003 10, 945 16, 502 19,152 5, 246 14,409 174 2, 978 Total » Consists of gold, special drawing rights (SDR), convertible currencies, and the1 U.S. reserve position in the IMF. Quarterly data are not seasonally adjusted. Foreign official assets Other foreign assets Statis tical discre]>aney U.S. official Allocareserve tions assets, of TWal Of net* special (sum of which: (unaddrawing Seasonal the rights adjust- justed, items end of (SDR) with sign ment reversed) discrep- period) ancy 1, 139 1,139 1,152 -2, 654 -1,620 5, 753 10, 367 -880 11,354 23, 848 74 3,020 1,167 10, 385 -825 -3, 641 11, 269 2,400 -99 6,975 1,460 20, 194 4,293 -4,022 14, 378 15,883 16, 226 18, 747 19, 312 18, 650 18, 956 26, 756 21,655 21, 268 18, 557 18, 956 21,491 21, 943 22, 994 26, 756 Sources: Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis) and Department of the Treasury. 37 Contents TOTAL OUTPUT, INCOME, AND SPENDING Page Gross National Product. Gross National Product in 1972 Dollars. Implicit Price Delators for Gross Product. Changes in GNP and GNP Wee Measures.;.............................. Nonfinanciai Corporate —Output, Costs, Profits. National Income. Personal Consumption Expenditures. Sources of Personal Income. Disposition of Personal Income.................: Farm Income. 1 2 2 3 3 4 4 5 6 7 Corporate Profits. 8 Gross Private Domestic Investment. Expenditures for New Plant and Equipment—Nonfann Business............. 9 10 ... EMPLOYMENT, Status of the Labor Force. Selected Unemployment Rates. Selected Measures of Unemployment and Unemployment Insurance Programs. — Nonagricultural Employment. .. Average Weekly Hours and Hourly Earnings—Private Nonagricultural Industries. Average Weekly Earnings—Private Nonagricultural Industries. Productivity and Related Data, Private Business Sector PRODUCTION AND 11 12 13 14 15 15 16 ACTIVITY Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization. Industrial Production—Major Market Groups and Selected Manufactures.... %. New Construction. New Private Housing and Vacancy Rates................... Business Sales and Inventories—Total and Trade. Manufacturers* Shipments, Inventories, and Orders. 17 18 19 19 20 21 PRICES Producer Prices.................................................... — Consumer Prices. Changes in Producer Prices. Changes in Consumer Wees. Prices Received and Paid by Farmers........................................ 22 23 24 24 25 MONEY, CREDIT, AND Money Stock Measures and Liquid Assets. Components of Money Stock Measures and Liquid Assets Consumer Installment Credit. Bank Loans and Investments, and Reserves. Sources and Uses of Funds, Nonfarm Nonfinanciai Corporate Business. Current Assets and Liabilities of Nonfinanciai Corporations. Interest Rates and Bond Yields. Common Stock Prices and Yields. 26 27 27 28 29 29 30 31 FEDERAL FINANCE Federal Budget Receipts and Outlays and Debt. Federal Budget Receipts by Source and Outlays by Function............ Federal Sector, National Income Accounts Basis. 32 33 34 INTERNATIONAL Industrial Production and Consumer Prices—Major Industrial Countries. U.S. Merchandise Exports and Imports. U.S. International Transactions. For sale by the Price of Documents, U.8. Government Printing Office, Washington, B.C. 2W02 copy). price: $lf.OO per year; $21.25 tar foreign, matting.. 38 35 35 36 U.S. GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE : 1981 O—74-820 O