National Income

Name: National Income
Creator: FRASER
Keywords: Economic Data, Economic indicators, Economic conditions, United States

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Congress 1st Session Economic Indicators MARCH 19S7 Prepared for the Joint Economic Committee by the Council of Economic Advisers UNITED STATES GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE WASHINGTON JOINT ECONOMIC COMMITTEE Created pursuant to Sec 5 a of Public Law 304 79th Gong WRIGHT PATMAN Texas Chairman JOHN SPARKMAN Alabama Vice Chairman ktCHARD BOLLING Missouri WILBUR D MILLS Arkansas AUGUSTINE B KELLEY Pennsylvania HENRY O TALLE Iowa THOMA B CURTIS Missouri CLARENCE E KILBURN New York PAUL H DOUGLAS Illinois J WILLIAM FULBRIGHT Arkansas JOSEPH G O MAHONEY Wyoming RALPH E FLANDERS Vermont ARTHUR V WATKINS Utah BARRY GOLDWATER Arizona GROVER W ENSLEY Executive Director JOHN W LEHMAN Clerk COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS RAYMOND J SAULNIER Chairman JOSEPH S DAVIS PAUL W McCRACKEN PUBLIC LAW 120 81sx CONGRESS CHAPTER 237 IST SESSION JOINT RESOLUTION S J Res 55J To print the monthly publication entitled Economic Indicators Resolved by the Senate and House of Representatives of the United States oj America in Congress assembled That the Joint Economic Committee be authorized to issue a monthly publication entitled Economic Indicators 53 and that a sufficient quantity be printed to furnish one copy to each Member of Congress the Secretary and the Sergeant at Arms of the Senate the Clerk Sergeant at Arms and Doorkeeper of the House of Representatives two copies to the libraries of the Senate and House and the Congressional Library seven hundred copies to the Joint Economic Committee and the required number of copies to the Superintendent of Documents for distribution to depository libraries and that the Superintendent of Documents be authorized to have copies printed for sale to the public Approved June Charts drawn by Graphics Unit Office of the Secretary Department of Commerce Contents TOTAL OUTPUT INCOME AND SPENDING The Nation s Income Expenditure and Saying Gross National Product or Expenditure National Income Sources of Personal Income Disposition of Personal Income Per Capita Disposable Income Farm I n c o m e Corporate P r o f i t s Gross Private Domestic Investment Expenditures for New Plant and Equipment EMPLOYMENT UNEMPLOYMENT AND WAGES Status of the Labor Force Nonagricultural Employment Average Weekly Hours Selected Industries Average Hourly Earnings Selected Industries Average Weekly Earnings Selected Industries PRODUCTION AND BUSINESS ACTIVITY Industrial Production Production of Selected Manufactures Weekly Indicators of Production New Construction Housing Starts and Applications for Financing Sales and Inventories Manufacturing and Trade Merchandise Exports and Imports PRICES Consumer Prices Wholesale Prices Prices Received and Paid by Farmers CURRENCY CREDIT AND SECURITY MARKETS Currency and Deposits Bank Loans Investments and Reserves Consumer Credit Bond Yields and Interest Rates Stock Prices FEDERAL FINANCE Budget Receipts and Expenditures Cash Receipts from and Payments to the Public in TOTAL OUTPUT INCOME AND SPENDING THE NATION S INCOME EXPENDITURE AND SAVING Total income and expenditures showed a more marked rise in over all economic activity between the third and fourth quarters of 1956 than in the earlier quarters of the year BILLIONS OF DOLLARS SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES CONSUMERS ISO I I BUSINESS GROSS RETAINED EARNINGS 27 GOVERNMENT FEDERAL STATE AND LOCAL 100 EXPENDITURES FOR GOODS AND SERVICES EXCESS OF EXPENDITURES RECEIPTS LESS TRANSFER PAYMENTS I I I I In 1956 I NET FOREIGN INVESTMENT AND GROSS PRIVATE DOMESTIC INVESTMENT INCLUDES CORPORATE UNDISTRIBUTED PROFITS AND INVENTORY VALUATION ADJUSTMENT AND CAPITAL CONSUMPTION ALLOWANCES PRELIMINARY ESTIMATES NOTE THE SUM OF THE THREE INCOME AND RECEIPT ITEMS SHOWN IN THIS CHART IS NOT EQUAL TO THE SUM OF THE EXPENDITURES OR GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT BECAUSE OF STATISTICAL DISCREPANCIES FOR EXPLANATION AND USE OF THIS ARRANGEMENT SEE SENATE REPORT NO 1295 JOINT ECONOMIC REPORT PR AND THE ECONOMIC REPORT OF THE PRESIDENT JANUARY 1953 APPENDIX A SOURCES DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE AND COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS S JNATIUW UJ FKULJUUT OR EXPENDITURE The gross national product rose 10 0 billion seasonally adjusted annual rate between the third and fourth quarters of 1956 Increases occurred in every major sector BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS GOVERNMENT PURCHASES OF GOODS AND SERVICES I I960 SOURCE DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE Billions of dollars Total Personal Gross f gross Total conNet private national gross sump domestic foreign product national tion investin 1956 product expend investment ment prices itures Period COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS a Government purchases of goods and services Federal Total Total National Other security State and local ao ia2 Seasonally adjusted annual rates 1955 First quarter Second quarter Third quarter Fourth quarter 1956 First quarter Second quarter Third quarter Fourth quarter Less Government sales Includes expenditures for military services International security snd foreign relations except foreign loans development and control of atomic energy promotion of the merchant marine promotion of defense production and economic stabilization and civil defense For further details see Economic Report of the President January 1955 p 137 and National Income 1954 Edition p 148 These expenditures are not comparable with the major national security category in The Budget of the V 8 Government for the Fiscal Year Ending June SO 1957 and shown on p 31 of Economic Indicators NOTE Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding O Source Department ot Commerce NATIONAL INCOME National income rose 8 8 billion seasonally adjusted annual rate between the third and fourth quarters of 1956 Compensation of employees accounted for more than half of the increase Corporate profits rhowed a notable rise BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS CORPORATE PROFITS AND INVENTORY VALUATION ADJUSTMENT 1956 PRELIMINARY ESTIMATES BY COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS SOURCE DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE EXCEPT AS NOTED COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS Billions of dollars Rental income of persons Total nation al income Period Proprietors income First quarter Spcond quarter Third quarter Fourth quarter 1956 First quarter Second quarter Third quarter Fourth Quarter Compensation of employees Seasonally adjusted annual rates Farm i Includes employer contributions for social insurance See also p 4 NOTE Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding Source Department of Commerce except as noted Corporate profits and inventory valuation adjustment Business and professional Net interest Total Profits Inventory before valuation taxes adjustment Preliminary estimates by Council of Economic Advisers SOURCES OF PERSONAL INCOME Personal income rose between December and January The rise was due mainly to a higher volume of dividends but was held down by a sharp increase in contributions for social insurance BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES TOTAL PERSONAL INCOME LABOR INCOME TRANSFER PAYMENTS FARM PROPRIETORS INCOME BUSINESS PROFESSIONAL AND RENTAL INCOME SOURCE DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE Total personal income Period January February March April Mav j June July August September October November December 1957 January COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS Billions of dollars Labor income Proprietors1 income Less Per wage and Rental Personal Transfer sonal con Nonagrisalary distributions cultural Business income Divi interest paybursements of dends Farm and proincome ments for social personal and other income insurfessional persons labor income 1 ance Seasonally adjusted annual rates l O Compensation of employees see p 3 excluding employer contributions for social insurance and the excess of wage accruals over disbursements Personal income exclusive of net income of unincorporated farm enterprises farm wages agricultural net interest and net dividends paid to agricultural corporations 4 NOTE Detail will not necessarily add to total because of rounding Source Department of Commerce Includes 2 7 billion National Service Life Insurance dividend most of which was paid in the first half of the year Preliminary estimates DISPOSITION OF PERSONAL INCOME Disposable personal income increased 5 1 billion seasonally adjusted annual rate between the third and fourth quarters of 1956 Consumer expenditures rose somewhat less than disposable income and the rate of consumer saving was slightly higher BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS I5 0 I 5 0 I00 I 00 I956 I960 SOURCE DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS Equals Less Personal Personal Disposable income taxes personal ID co me Period 1955 First quarter Second quarter Third quarter Fourth quarter Billions First quarter Second quarter Third quarter Fourth quarter i Includes such items as fines penalties and donations NOTE Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding Source Department of Commerce 2 Less Personal consumption expenditures Total NonDurable durable Services goods goods Billions of dollars of dollars seasonally adjusted annual rates Equals Personal saving Saving as percent of disp usable income PER CAPITA DISPOSABLE INCOME Per capita disposable income seasonally adjusted expressed in both current and constant prices rose moderately between the third and fourth quarters of 1956 DOLLARS DOLLARS SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES 1956 PRICES CURRENT PRICES I OOO J I i SEE FOOTNOTE 2 ON TABLE BELOW SOURCES DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE DEPARTMENT OF LABOR AND COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS Total disposable personal Per capita disposable personal income dollars 1 income billions of dollars 1 Period 1956 prices a Current prices Current prices prices Population thousands Seasonally adjusted annual rates 1955 First quarter Second quarter rr hird quarter Fourth quarter 1956 First quarter Second quarter Third quarter Fourth quarter Income loss taxes Dollar estimates In current prices divided by consumer price Index on a 1956 base i Includes armed forces overseas Annual data as of July 1 quarterly data centered In the middle of the period interpolated from monthly figures Sources Department of Commerce Department of Labor and Council of Economic Advisers FARM INCOME Gross farm income seasonally adjusted rose at the close of 1956 for the fifth successive quarter Despite an increase in farm production expenses net farm income was up 0 5 billion annual rate in the fourth quarter of 1956 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES NET FARM INCOME INCL NET CHANGE IN INVENTORIES I INCOME OF FARM OPERATORS FROM FARMING SOURCE DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE Realized gross farm income l Period First quarter Second quarter Third quarter Fourth quarter 1956 First quarter Second quarter Third quarter Fourth quarter COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS Farm operators income Net income per farm Net income 2 including net change in Including Excluding Farm proinventories net change net change duction 1956 in invenin invenCurrent expenses prices 4 tories tories 3 prices Dollars Billions of dollars iae Seasonally adjusted annual rates Cash receipts from farm marketings value of farm products consumed in farm households gross rental value of farm dwellings and Government payments to farmers J Realized gross farm income less farm production expenses Excludes farm wages paid to workers living on farms and any income to farm people from nonfarm sources which in 1955 amounted to 1 7 billion dollars and 6 1 billion dollars respectively Source Department of Agriculture except as noted 1954 Number of farms millions Data prior to 1952 differ from farm proprietors income on pages 3 and 4 because of revisions by the Department of Agriculture not yet incorporated into the 4 national income accounts of the Department of Commerce Dollar estimates in current prices divided by the index of prices paid by farmers for items used in family living on a 1050 base The number of farms is held constant w i t h i n a given year 1 Estimate by Council of Economic Advisors CORPORATE PROFITS Corporate profits seasonally adjusted rose in the fourth quarter of 1956 reversing the downward movement during the three preceding quarters BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 50 ALLOWANCE FOR INVENTORY VALUATION ADJUSTMENT PRELIMINARY ESTIMATES BY COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS SOURCE DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE EXCEPT AS NOTED COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS Billions of dollars Period Corporate profits before taxes Corporate tax liability Corporate profits after taxes Total Dividend payments Undistributed profits Seasonally adjusted annual rates First quarter Second quarter Third quarter Fourth quarter First quarter Second quarter Third quarter Fourth quarter Preliminary estimates by Council of Economic Advisers NOTK S P p 3 for profits before taxes and after inventory valuation adjustment Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding olivet Department of Commerce except as noted 8 1 GROSS PRIVATE DOMESTIC Gross private domestic investment seasonally adjusted increased in the fourth quarter of 1956 Investment in producers durable equipment rose at an annual rate of 2 billion and additions to inventories by about 2 billion while new construction declined 0 7 billion BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 70 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS SOURCE DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISiRS Billions of dollars Total gross private domestic investment Period Change in business inventories Fixed investment New construction Total Residential nonfarrn Total Commercial and industrial l All other 2 Producers durable equipment Total Nonfarm Seasonally adjusted annual rates 1955 First quarter Second quarter Third quarter Fourth quarter 1956 First quarter Second quarter Third quarter Fourth quarter i Includes public utility a Includes petroleum and natural gas well drilling NOTE Detail will not necessarily add 5o totals because of roundine Source Department of FOR NEW PLANT AND EQUIPMENT The February March survey of business expenditures on plant and equipment indicates a continuing rise in outlays during the first half of the year Anticipated outlays for the full year 1957 are 6 5 percent above outlays in 1956 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES TOTAL MANUFACTURING COMMERCIAL AND OTHER I956 I952 I95 I I957 SEE NOTE 4 ON TABLE BELOW SOURCES SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE COMMISSION AND DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS I Billions of dollars Manuiacturmg Total1 Period First quarter Second quarter Third quarter Fourth quarter 1957 First quarter 4 4 Second quarter Total Transportation Mining Durable NonduraRailroads Other ble goods goods L Seasonally adjusted annual rates L S Public utilities Commercial and other a 12 i3 Jixcludes agriculture Commercial and other includes trade service finance communications and construction 3 Annual total is the sum of seasonally unadjusted expenditures it does not necessarily coincide with the average of seasonally adjusted figures which include adjustments when necessary for systematic tendencies in anticipatory data 4 Estimates based on anticipated capital expenditures as reported by business from late January to early March 1957 NOTE These figures do not agree with the totals included in the gross national product estimates of the Department of Commerce principally because the latter cover agricultural investment and also certain equipment and construction outlays charged to current expense Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding Sources Securities and Exchange Commission and Department of Commerce 10 EMPLOYMENT UNEMPLOYMENT AND WAGES STATUS OF THE LABOR FORCE Total civilian employment increased somewhat more than seasonally between January and February and unemployment changed only slightly As a result of a change in definition some 200 000 to 300 000 persons temporarily laid off or waiting to start new jobs formerly classed as employed are now classed as unemployed MILLIONS OF PERSONS 75 MILLIONS OF PERSONS 75 I I I I I I I I I I I J952 I I I I I I I II I I I I I I I I I 1 I I I I 4 YEARS OF AGE AND OVER SOURCE DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE Period January February March April May June July August September October November December 1957 January February New definition 1957 January February COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS Total Insured unemployment 2 Employment 1 Unemployment labor Civilian Thousands of covered of force inlabor Agricul Nonagri Number civilian of persons employment cluding Total force State pro all protural cultural labor armed grams grams force forces Thousands of persons 14 years of age and over i Includes part time workers and those with jobs but not at work for such reasons as vacations illness bad weather and industrial disputes excludes armed forces 3 Weekly average Data for 1953 revised series based on 68area sample beginning 1954 on 230 area sample beginning May 1956 on 330 area sample Starting July 1955 data are for week containing 12th of month previously for week containing 8th of month Preliminary estimate Sources Department of Commerce labor force and Department of Labor insured unemployment 11 JMUJMAUKlUUm UKAJb tMFJjUYMENT Between January and February manufacturing employment declined slightly instead of rising seasonally ment in most nonmanufacturing industries was at record levels for the month MILLIONS OF WAGE AND SALARY WORKERS MILLIONS OF WAGE AND SALARY WORKERS DURABLE MANUFACTURING NONDURABLE MANUFACTURING I J F Employ M A M J J A S O N D J CONTRACT CONSTRUCTION I F I M A M J J A S O N D WHOLESALE AND RETAIL TRADE COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS SOURCE DEPARTMENT OF LABOR Thousands of wasre and salarv workers Period January February March April May June July August September October November December 1957 January 2 February 2 Total adjusted for seasonal variation Government Contract Wholesale Federal Durable Nondu Mining construc and retail State trade tion goods rable goods local Not adjusted for seasonal variation Man ui ae Hiring Total Total Other Includes aii full and part time wage and salary workers in nooagrieulturai establishments who worked during or received pay for any part of the pay period ending nearest the Uth of the month Excludes proprietors self employed persons domestic servants and personnel of the armed forces Total derived froiu this table not comparable with estimates of n on agricultural employment of the civilian labor force reported by the Department of Commerce p 11 which include proprietors self employed persons and domestic servants which count persons as employed when they are not at work because of industrial disputes end which are based on an eiumeration of population whereas the estimates in this table are based on reports from employing establish men ti 2 Preliminary estimates NOTE Beginning with 1954 data are based on first quarter I95 i benchmark levels Source Department of Labor 12 AVERAGE WEEKLY HOURS SELECTED INDUSTRIES The average workweek of manufacturing production workers rose slightly between January and February in accordance with the usual seasonal pattern HOURS PER WEEK HOURS PER WEEK NONDURABLE MANUFACTURING DURABLE MANUFACTURING M J i i i I i i i i RETAIL TRADE BUILDING CONSTRUCTION SOURCE DEPARTMENT OF LABOR COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISfRS Hours per week for production workers or nonsupervisory employees Manufacturing Total Durable goods Data beginning with January 1948 are not itrictly comparable with those for earlier periods Preliminary estimates NOTE Beginning with 1954 data are based on first quarter 1956 benchmark lerels of employment Source Department of Labor ouiluing construction Retail trade Til1ll l THT Period January February March April May June July August September October November December 1957 January 2 2 February 1 Nondurable goods i Not available 13 AVERAGE HOURLY EARNINGS SELECTED INDUSTRIES In February average hourly earnings of production workers in manufacturing were 2 05 the same as in the previous 2 months and 12 cents above February 1956 In 1956 prices the increase will probably be about half as large DOLL ARS PER HOUR DOLL ARS PER HOUR BUILDING CONSTRUCTION DURABLE MANUFACTURING CURRENT PRICES f x Y 2 10 CURRENT PRICES ft 2 80 A PRICES 1956 PRICES 2 OO 2 70 B v X jj i nli i i 1954 i I 1 U j j i i i 1 i i jf 2 00 II M 1 1 1 i 1 1 1 I 1 1 I L bk NONDURABLE MANUFACTURING RETAIL TRADE CURRENT PRICES S i r A s k CURRENT PRICES j f V 1956 PRICES x i 1956 PRICES r t i 1 I I I II k i ii ii i 1 1 1 i 1 1 1 I t UK 1955 AA 1 1 I J EARNINGS IN CURRENT PRICES DIVIDED BY CONSUMER PRICE INDEX ON A 1956 BASE COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS SOURCE DEPARTMENT OF LABOR P or productioo workers or nonsuperviaory employees Current pricea 1956 prices Durable goods manufacturing Current 1956 prices prices Ml manufacturing Period January February March April May June July August September October November December 1957 January 3 3 February Nondurable goodi manufacturing Current prices 1956 prices l Earnings ID current prices divided by consumer price Index oo a 1966 base Data beginning with January 1948 are not strictly comparable with tnose tor earlier periods NOTE Beginning with 1954 data are based on first quarter 19 5 benchmark levels of employment Source Department of Labor Building construction Current 1956 prices 1 prices Current prices 1956 prices L Retail trade 3 Preliminary estimates Not available AVERAGE WEEKLY EARNINGS SELECTED INDUSTRIES In February average weekly earnings of manufacturing workers were 82 41 slightly higher than in January and 4 24 above February 1956 DOL LARS PER WEEK LARS PER WEEK 95 BUILDING CONSTRUCTION DURABLE MANUFACTURING CURRENT PRICES A CURRENT PRICED V f A 95f PRICES k 100 xXX A V V i I 1 I i i i i I l 1i i 1 I j 1 i UJ J j i 1 1 I i i i t i 1 i i 1 1 1 i i i I I95 j PRICES 1954 J I NONDURABLE MANUFACTURING RETAIL TRADE 65 75 CURRENT PRICES CURRENT PRICES XX PRICES A 1956 PRICES r V l M 1 1 1 I i 1 1 1 1 WW I I 1 I M M I 1 1 1 1I 1 1 I CURRENT PRICES 87 46j 1956 PRICES 88 25 I EARNINGS IN CURRENT PRICES DIVIDED BY CONSUMER PRICE INDEX ON A 1 956 BASE SOURCE DEPARTMENT OF LABOR January February March April May June July August September October November December 1957 January 3 3 February tfamingaiu utirreui prices diviaea oy consumer oriee index on a 1956 base a Data beginning with January 1948 are not strictly comparable with taose for earlier rertodi Nom Beginning with 1954 data are based on first quarter 1955 benchmark levels of employment Source Department of Labor COUNCIL OF ECONOMiC ADVISERS For production workers or n on supervisory employees Durable goods Nondurable goods Building All maouf acturing manufacturing manufacturing construction Current 1956 Current Current Current prices prices prices prices prices prices prices prices Period 1 1 I M I f 1 UU i Retail trade Current prices prices Preliminary estimates Not available PRODUCTION AND BUSINESS ACTIVITY INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION The index of industrial production seasonally adjusted is estimated at for February the same as the January index and one point below the peak in December 1956 INDEX INDEX I I 60 I COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS SOURCE BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM seasonally adjusted Total industrial production J renod T i January February M f i re h April JVf ay June Julv August Sfpti inbrr obcr N ovcinb T DrriMiibiT 1957 J January February 1 Preliminary 16 Manufactures Tl I Minerals Total Durable Nondurable M6 M Source Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System PRODUCTION OF SELECTED MANUFACTURES In February production of most manufactures changed very little from January levels INDEX SEASONALLY ADJUSTED INDEX SEASONALLY ADJUSTED SOURCE BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM Period Primary metals 1957 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS seasonally adjusted Durable manufactures Nondurable FabriTranspor Lumber Textiles Paper Machin tation cated and and and metal ery prod apparel printequipproducts ucts ment ing manufactures ConChemical Foods sumer and petro bever durable leum ages and goods products tobacco l January February March April May June July August September October November December January February Preliminary estimates Source Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System 17 WEEKLY INDICATORS OF PRODUCTION Several weekly indicators of production increased during most of February During February output of steel was maintained at the January level but dropped in early March MILLIONS OF TONS MILLIONS OF SHORT TONS DAILY AVERAGE STEEL BITUMINOUS COAL 1956 I t 1 1 I I I J 1 I I I 1 1 1 1 i 1 J F M A I t I 1 1 1 I l l M J 1 I I 1 1 I i t J A 1 1 i l l I I 1 I Lji S O N D ELECTRIC POWER CARS AND TRUCKS I 50 U M I 1 I I I I I M I I I I I I 1 i I I M I I M I 1 1 I I J F M A M J J SOURCES AMERICAN IRON AND STEEL INSTITUTE DEPARTMENT OF THE INTERIOR EDISON ELECTRIC INSTITUTE AND WARD S AUTOMOTIVE REPORTS Period Weekly average February March ApriL May June July August September October November December 1957 January 3 February Weekended 1957 February March A S COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS Bituminous Freight Paper board Electric Steel produced Jars and trucks coal mined power produced loaded Thousand Percent of distributed thousand thousands thousand assembled thousands of net theoretical millions of of short of cars of tons Total Cars Trucks tons capacity kflowattrhours tons a Percent of capacity based on weekly net ton capacity of beginning January beginning January beginning January beginning January 1 1956 and beginning January Daily average for week s Preliminary estimates Sources American Iron and Steel Institute Edison Electric Institute Department of the Interior Association of American Railroads National Paperboard Association and Ward s Automotive Reports 18 MEW CONSTRUCTION Total Construction expenditures seasonally adjusted declined slightly in February in January were somewhat higher than in the same month of 1956 Contract awards for 48 States B lLLiONS OF DOLLARS 50 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS IO 0 I t I i I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I M I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I 1 I M I I i I II I M I I I I I I I I I I I I I i I M I I 0 20 PRIVATE RESIDENTIAL NONFARM V OTHER 1 i M 1 1 i I95I I 1 II 1 1 1 I952 M 1 1I 1 1 i i i 1 PRIVATE i i M i i 1 I954 I953 i 1 1 i i 1 I I I i I956 I957 I955 SOURCES DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE AND DEPARTMENT OF LABOR Total new construction Period Total private COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS f Billions of dollar Private Residential Other nonfarm M Federal State and local I Construction contracts awarded 1 48 States 37 Eastern States Annual rates Seasonally a d j u s t e d a n n u a l rates 1956 January February March A Dril May June July August September October November December 1957 January 4 February M 6 M S Unadjusted Seasonally adjusted Compiled by F W Dodge Corporation seasonally adjusted by the National Bureau of Economic Research Omits small contracts and covers rural areas less fully than urban 2 Data for 48 States are available only for January 1956 and January 1957 The 37 Eastern States data are probably indicative of the 48 States trend for the period shown 3 Revised series not comparable with prior data Comparable data for January 1956 are 21 1 and 28 6 billion respectively 4 Preliminary estimates Sources Department of Commerce Department of Labor and F W Dodge Corporation except as noted 19 HOUSING STARTS AND APPLICATIONS FOR FINANCING The annual rate of private nonfarrn housing starts seasonally adjusted declined to 910 000 in February Applications for FHA commitments and VA appraisal requests increased from January to February MILLIONS OF UNITS MILLIONS OF UNITS I SEE FOOTNOTE I ON TABLE BELOW SOURCES DEPARTMENT OF LABOR FEDERAL HOUSING ADMINISTRATION F H A A N D VETERANS ADMINISTRATION V A COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS Thousands of units New nonfarm housing starts Period Total ls 396 0 Annual total o Monthly average January February March 98 6 April May June July August 93 9 September 93 6 October 77 4 November 4 64 0 December 4 1957 Januarv February Publicly financed Total Proposed home construction Private Privately financed seasonally Applications Requests Government programs for VA adjusted for FHA comannual mitments appraisals Total FHA VA rates t i Units represented by mortgage applications for new home construction Partly estimated Not available 8 Includes 1 686 units started some time in 1956 and not reported until December Sources Department of Labor Federal Bousing Administration FHA and Veterans Administration VA 20 Preliminary estimates SALES AND INVE3NTORIES MANUFJICTURING AND TRADE Manufacturing and trade inventories seasonally adjusted in January rose at a much slower rate than during the last quarter of 1956 Sales increased 1 3 percent in January Manufacturers5 new orders remained unchanged from the December level According to preliminary estimates retail sales in February continued at a record high level BILLIONS OF DOLLARS SEASONALLY ADJUSTED BILLIONS OF DOLLARS SEASONALLY ADJUSTED n i i i i i i i l i I i i INDEX SEASONALLY ADJUSTED 6Q MANUFACTURING RETAIL TRADE AND WHOLESALE TRADE COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS SOURCES DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE AND BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM Period Manufacturing and trade InvenSales tories s December January 52 9 February 52 9 March 53 1 April May June 54 3 July August 54 5 September 53 9 October 55 0 November December January February A HU jr Manufacturing Wholesale Retail Department stores InvenInvenInvenInven New Sales J tories orders Sales tories s Sales i tories s Sales tories l Index Billions of dollars seasonally adjusted seasonally adjusted a J Monthly average for year nd total for month Revised series on retail trade beginnirg with 1951 not comparable with prt 2 Book value end of period data 8 Book value end of period except annual dat which are monthly averages 8 preliminary estimates Sources Department of Commerce and Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System EXPORTS AND IMPORTS In January commercial exports were 32 percent higher and imports 6 percent higher than in January MILLIONS OF DOLLARS MILLIONS OF DOLLARS MERCHANDISE EXPORTS EXCLUDING GRANT AID SHIPMENTS L OO SEE FOOTNOTES I AND 2 ON TABLE BELOW SOURCE DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS Millions of dollars Merchandise exports Period Total monthly average 1949 monthly average 1950 monthly average 1951 monthly average 1952 monthly average 1953 monthly average 1954 monthly average 1955 monthly averasce 1956 monthly average 1955 December January February March April May June Julv August September October November comber Grant aid shipments Excess of exports over imports Excluding grant aid shipments Merchandise imports Total Excluding grant aid shipments C I l i T l i nn irv i i i i i n g with 1950 figures include only Department ol Defense shipments of srani aid ojiliiar v supplies ana equipment tiiiaer tne Mutuai Security Hhipnmiit for the first 8 rnonthi of the program July December 1950 amounted to 282 millioD dollars ci ssarily u l l to totals because of rounding Sources Department of Commerce and Department of Defense PRICES CONSUMER PRICES The averasc of consumer prices rose slightly in January The fractional decline in food prices and lower prices of apparel during the usual post Christmas sales were more than offset by increases in the price indexes of other major components INDEX INDEX I SOURCE DEPARTMENT OF LABOR COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS Ail items Period December 1956 January February March April May June July August September October November December 1957 January Food Housing Apparel Total Includes in addition to rent homeowner costs utilities bouselumisnings etc Rent Transportation Heading Other goods and Medical Personal and recreacare care services tion Source Department of Labor L WHOLESALE PRICES The average of prices in wholesale markets rose slightly in February Prices of farm products and processed foods declined while industrial prices increased 0 2 percent compared with an average monthly increase of 0 5 percent for the previous 6 months INDEX INDEX OTHER THAN FARM PRODUCTS AND FOODS INDUSTRIAL COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS SOURCE DEPARTMENT OF LABOR All commodities Period I February March April May June July August September October November December 1957 January February Week ended March Weekly series based on smaller sample than monthly series Source Department of Labor Farm products Processed foods Other than farm products and foods industrial PRICES RECEIVED AND PAID BY FARMERS In the month ended February 15 the index of prices received by farmers declined 2 percent the parity index rose 2 points and the parity ratio declined 2 points INDEX INDEX I9IO I4 IOO 325 PARITY INDEX PRICES PAID INTEREST TAXES AND WAGE RATES I I I I M I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I 1 I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I II I J RATIO OF INDEX OF PRICES RECEIVED TO PARITY INDEX SOURCE DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS Prices paid by farmers Parity index prices paid Prices refor items used in ceived by interest Period farmers Family taxes and Production wage rates living Index January February March April May June July August September October November December January February 15 i Percentage ratio of index of prices received by farmers to parity index Source Department of Agriculture Parity ratio l CURRENCY CREDIT AND SECURITY MARKETS CURRENCY AND DEPOSITS Demand deposits and currency declined seasonally in January change in January 1956 Time deposits rose in January compared to no BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 240 END OF MONTH TOTAL DEPOSITS AND CURRENCY TOTAL EXCLUDING U S GOVERNMENT DEPOSITS PRIVATELY HELD MONEY SUPPLY I60 I20 I60 120 DEMAND DEPOSITS ADJUSTED 80 TIME DEPOSITS CURRENCY OUTSIDE BANKS X otd L I952 I954 SOURCE BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM I955 I956 I957 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS Billions of dollars Total deposits and currency End of period December 1956 January February M arch April May June 5 Jolv 5 August September 6 October 6 November65 December 1957 January includes U 8 Government deposits at Includes deposits and currency held by U S Government deposits l Total excluding U S Government deposits privately held money supply 3 Demand Currency Time deposits Total outside deposits 4 adjusted banks Federal Reserve banks and commercial and savings ban s and U 8 Treasurer s time deposits open account State and local governments Includes demand deposits otber tban interbank and U 8 Government less cash Items in process of collection Includes deposits in commercial banks mutual savings banks and Postal Savings System but excludes interbank deposits fi Preliminary estimates NOTE Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding Source Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System 26 BANK LOANS INVESTMENTS AND RESERVES Commercial bank loans declined 2 2 billion in January compared with a decrease of 0 6 billion in January 1956 Free reserves excess reserves less borrowings at the Federal Reserve which had been positive in January became negative in February BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 1180 ISO I ALL COMMERCIAL BANKS 160 TOTAL LOANS AND INVESTMENTS INVESTMENT IN US GOVERNMENT SECURITIES INVESTMENT IN OTHER SECURITIES II I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I II I END OF MONTH COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS SOURCE BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM Billions of dollars All commercial banks End of period 1949 I January February March April May June 4 July August 4 September October 4 4 November December January 4 4 February Total loans and investments Loans Total Investments U S GovOther ernment securities securities Weekly reporting member banks s Business loans All member banks 1 BorrowReserve balances ings at Federal Required Excess Reserve Banks Member banks include besides all national banks those State banks that have taken membership in the Federal Reserve System Commercial industrial and agricultural loans revised series beginning January 1952 and again October 1955 Such loans by weekly reporting member banks represent approximately 70 percent of business loans by all commercial banks i Data are averages of daily figures on balances and borrowings during the period Preliminary estimates QT NOTE Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding Source Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System CONSUMER CREDIT In January total consumer credit outstanding declined 950 million compared with a decline of 800 million in January 1956 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS SO 50 TOTAL CREDIT OUTSTANDING SOURCE BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM Total consumer End of period credit outstanding December 1956 January FebruaryMarch April May June July August SeptemberOctober November December 1957 January COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS Millions of dollars Instalment credit outstanding Total Automobile paper Other Repair and consumer moderni Personal zation loans goods loans J paper l N oninstalnient credit outstanding Total Charge accounts InstalInstalment ment credit ex credit tended repaid i Includes all consumer credit extended tor the purpose of purchasing automobiles and other consumer goods and secured by the items purchased OQ Includes only such loans held by financial institutions those held by retail outlets are included in other consumer goods paper O Credit extended or repaid during the period Pource Board of Governors of the Federal Besenre System BOND YIELDS AND INTEREST RATES Yields on new Treasury bills remained above 3 percent during February with an average close to that for January The average yields on high grade municipal corporate and Federal bonds for February were below those for January There was some rise in Federal bond yields in late February PERCENT PER ANNUM PERCENT PER ANNUM REVISED SERIES BONDS DUE OR CALLABLE IO TO 20 YEARS SEE TABLE BELOW SOURCES SEE TABLE BELOW Period March April May June Julv August September October November December 1957 January February Week ended 1957 February March 2 9 Percent t er annnml High grade U S Government security yields municipal 3 month bonds 2 Taxable bonds Treasury Standard 3 1 Poor s bills i Rate on new issues within period iFirst issnad in 1941 The single series on these bonds which continued through March 1953 included October 1941 March 1952 bonds due or callable after 15 years April 1952 March 1953 bonds due or callable alter 12 years i Weekly data are Wednesday figures COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS Corporate bonds Moody s Baa Aaa Prime commercial paper 4 6 months a Bonds due or callable from 10 to 20 years Bonds due or callable 20 years and after 8 Sources Treasury Department and Roani of Governors of the Federal Reserve System except as noted 29 STOCK PRICES Stock prices declined in early February but remained substantially unchanged during the remainder of the month INDEX INDEX SOURCE SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE COMMISSION Period Weekly average March April May June July August September October November December 1957 January February Week ended 1957 February March Composite index COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS Manufacturing Trade TransDurable Nondura portation Utilities finance Mining Total and service ble goods goods S Includes 265 common stocks 98 for durable goods manufacturing 72 for nonduracle goodi manufacturing 31 for transportation 29 for utilities 31 for trade finance and service and 14 for mining indexes are for weekly closing pricei Source Securities and Exchange Commission 30 FEDERAL FINANCE BUDGET RECEIPTS AND EXPENDITURES The cumulative budget deficit for the first 7 months of the current fiscal year was 7 0 billion compared to 8 5 billion for the same period in fiscal 1956 Part of the difference was due to the fact that a greater proportion of the fiscalyear total of corporate taxes was collected in the first half of 1957 than in the first half of 1956 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS NET BUDGET EXPENDITURES NET BUDGET RECEIPTS I952 I953 I954 I MAJOR NATIONAL SECURITY 75 EXPENDITURES BUDGET SURPLUS t 1955 OR DEFICIT ENLARGED SCALE t5 50 v v FIRST 7 t i i MONTHS ijl FISCAL YEARS ESTIMATED SOURCES TREASURY DEPARTMENT AND BUREAU OF THE Period Fiscal year 1944 Fiscal year 1949 Fiscal year 1950 Fiscal vear 1951 Fiscal year 1952 Fiscal year 1953 Fiscal vear 1954 Fiscal year 1955 Fiscal year Fiscal year 1957 estimated 1955 December 1956 January February March April May June July 1 1 August September October 3 3 November December January Cumulative totals for first 7 months Fiscal year 1956 3 Fiscal year 1957 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS BUDGET Billions of dollars Net budget expenditures Net budget Major receipts national Total security Budget surplus or deficit Public debt end of period g L i Revised to include the items classified as major national security io The Budget of the United States Government for the Fiscal Year Ending June SO 1957 These expenditure items are Military functions of Defense Department mutual military program development and control of atomic energy stockpiling of strategic and critical materials and defense production expansion Includes guaranteed securities except those held by the Treasury Not all of total shown is subject to statutory debt limitation Preliminary n t NOTE Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding Sources Treasury Department and Bureau of the Budget CASH RECEIPTS FROM AND PAYMENTS TO THE PUBLIC Federal cash receipts exceeded cash payments by 5 5 billion in calendar year 1956 compared with a cash deficit of 740 million in the prior year In the fourth quarter of 1956 there was a cash deficit of 4 8 billion due primarily to seasonally low tax receipts BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS CASH RECEIPTS CASH PAYMENTS EXCESS OF CASH RECEIPTS ENLARGED SCALE EXCESS OF CASH PAYMENTS i960 I95I I952 PRELIMINARY ESTIMATES SOURCES BUREAU OF THE BUDGET AND TREASURY DEPARTMENT I953 I I956J 1957 CALENDAR YEARS COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS Millions of dollars Cash receipts from the public Calendar year Fiscal year total IQftfi i Quarterly total not adjusted for seasonal variation 1Q55 First Quarter Second quarter Third quarter Fourth quarter 1956 First quarter Second quarter Third quarter 1 Fourth quarter Calendar year total 1955 Excess of receipts or payments Q5fi Cash payments to the public s I rrlinihiury ostlinutcs NOT Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding Bntrnvn Burtmu of the Budget and Treasury Department l y the Superintendent of Documents U S Government Printing Office Washington 25 D C Price 30 eenti per copy 2 00 per year 2 50 foreign U S G O V E R N M E N T P R I N T I N G OFFICE 19S7

National Income

DATE: March 1957

PART OF:

Economic Indicators : March 1957

AUTHOR:

Council of Economic Advisers (U.S.)

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Council of Economic Advisers (U.S.) , United States. Congress. Joint Committee on the Economic Report, 1946-1956 and United States. Congress. Joint Economic Committee, 1956-. "National Income," in Council of Economic Advisers (U.S.) , United States. Congress. Joint Committee on the Economic Report, 1946-1956 and United States. Congress. Joint Economic Committee, 1956-. "March 1957," Economic Indicators (March 1957) : 6-6. https://fraser.stlouisfed.org/title/1/item/332/toc/272614 , accessed on December 11, 2019.

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Economic Data