Money Supply

Name: Money Supply
Creator: FRASER
Keywords: Economic Data, Economic indicators, Economic conditions, United States

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Congress 24 Session Economic Indicators JANUARY 1955 Prepared for the Joint Committee on the Economic Report by the Council of Economic Advisers UNITED STATES GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE WASHINGTON JOINT COMMITTEE ON THE ECONOMIC REPORT Created pursuant to Sec 5 a of Public Law 304 79th Gong JESSE P WOLCOTT Michigan Chairman RALPH E FLANDERS Vermont Vice Chairman RICHARD M SIMPSON Pennsylvania HENRY O TALLE Iowa GEORGE H BENDER Ohio EDWARD J HART New Jersey WRIGHT PATMAN Texas RICHARD BOLLING Missouri ARTHUR V WATKINS Utah BARRY GOLDWATER Arizona FRANK CARLSON Kansas JOHN SPARKMAN Alabama PAUL H DOUGLAS Illinois J WILLIAM FULBRIGHT Arkansas GROVER W ENSLEY Staff Director JOHN W LEHMAN Clerk COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS ARTHUR F BURNS Chairman NEIL H JACOBY WALTER W STEWART PUBLIC LAW 120 81sT CONGRESS CHAPTER 237 IST SESSION JOINT RESOLUTION S J Res 55 To print the monthly publication entitled Economic Indicators Resolved by the Senate and House of Representatives of the United States of America in Congress assembled That the Joint Committee on the Economic Report be authorized to issue a monthly publication entitled Economic Indicators and that a sufficient quantity be printed to furnish one copy to each Member of Congress the Secretary and the Sergeant at Arms of the Senate the Clerk Sergeant at Arms and Doorkeeper of the House of Representatives two copies to the libraries of the Senate and House and the Congressional Library seven hundred copies to the Joint Committee on the Economic Report and the required number of copies to the Superintendent of Documents for distribution to depository libraries and that the Superintendent of Documents be authorized to have copies printed for sale to the public Approved June Charts drawn by Graphics Unit Office of the Secretary Department of Commerce 11 Contents THE TOTAL OUTPUT OF THE ECONOMY Past The Nation s Economic Accounts Gross National Product or Expenditure PRICES Consumer Prices Wholesale Prices Prices Received and Paid by Farmers Stock Prices EMPLOYMENT AND WAGES Status of the Labor Force Nonagricultural Employment Average Weekly Hours Selected Industries Average Hourly Earnings Selected Industries Average Weekly Earnings Selected Industries PRODUCTION AND BUSINESS ACTIVITY Industrial Production Production of Selected Manufactures Selected Weekly Indicators Gross Private Domestic Investment Expenditures for New Plant and Equipment New Construction New Housing Starts Sales and Inventories Manufacturing and Trade Merchandise Exports and Imports PURCHASING POWER National Income Corporate Profits Sources of Personal Income Disposition of Personal Income Per Capita Disposable Income Farm Income CREDIT MONEY AND FEDERAL FINANCE Bank Loans Investments and Reserves Consumer Credit Bond Yields and Interest Rates Money Supply Federal Budget Receipts and Expenditures Federal Cash Receipts From and Payments to the Public iii THE TOTAL OUTPUT OF THE ECONOMY THE NATION S ECONOMIC ACCOUNTS Estimates of total income and expenditures reflect substantial stability of over all economic activity from the early part of the year through the third quarter BILLIONS OF DOLLARS SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES ANNUAL TOTALS CONSUMERS DISPOSABLE INCOME 150 EXPENDITURES I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I J 1954 I BUSINESS 100 GOVERNMENT FEDERAL STATE AND LOCAL EXPENDITURES FOR GOODS AND SERVICES EXCESS OF RECEIPTS 50 RECEIPTS LESS TRANSFER PAYMENTS I 1942 I I 1944 I I 1946 I I 1948 I I 1952 I I I 1951 I I i NET FOREIGN INVESTMENT AND GROSS PRIVATE DOMESTIC INVESTMENT INCLUDES UNDISTRIBUTED CORPORATE PROFITS AND CORPORATE INVENTORY VALUATION ADJUSTMENT AND CAPITAL CONSUMPTION ALLOWANCES NOTE THE SUM OF THE THREE INCOME AND RECEIPT ITEMS SHOWN IN THIS CHART IS NOT EQUAL TO THE SUM OF THE EXPENDITURES OR GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT BECAUSE OF STATISTICAL DISCREPANCIES FOR EXPLANATION AND USE OF THIS ARRANGEMENT SEE SENATE REPORT NO 1295 JOINT ECONOMIC REPORT PP AND THE ANNUAL ECONOMIC REPORT OF THE PRESIDENT JANUARY 1953 APPENDIX A SOURCES DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE AND COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT OR EXPENDITURE The gross national product changed very little between the second and third quarters according to current estimates A further decline in Federal expenditures was almost offset by increases in other categories of expenditures BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS ANNUAL TOTALS ISO GOVERNMENT PURCHASES OF GOODS AND SERVICES COUNCIL Of ECONOMIC ADVISERS SOURCE DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE Billions of dollars Personal Gross Total conNet private sump domestic foreign gross national tion investproduct expend investment ment itures Period Government purchases of goods and services Federal State and Total i Total National Other 2 local security Seasonally adjusted annual rates First quarter Second quarter Third quarter Fourth quarter First quarter Second quarter Third ouarter i Less Government sales Includes expenditures for military services international security and foreign relations except foreign loans development and control of atomic energy promotion of the merchant marine promotion of defense production and economic stabilization and civil defense For further details see Annual Economic Report of the President January 1954 p 167 and Survey of Current Business July 1953 p 10 These expenditures are not comparable with the national security category IB The Budget of the U 8 Government for the Fiscal Year Ending June SO 1955 and shown on p 31 of Economic Indicators Nori The national income and expenditure series have been revised by the Department of Commerce For details see Survey of Current Business July 1954 Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding Source Department of Commerce PRICES CONSUMER PRICES In November the average of consumer prices increased slightly due almost entirely to the higher prices of new model cars INDEX T INDEX J J A S 0 ND 1954 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS Period 1939 monthly average 1944 monthly average 1946 monthly average 1948 monthly average 1949 monthly average 1950 monthly average1951 monthly average 1952 monthly average 1953 monthly average 1953 October November December 1954 January February March April May June July August September October November Not available All items Food Housing Total C w C Apparel Transportation O Rent Source Department of Labor Medical Personal care care w e C Reading Other and goods recreaand tion services C1 o C WHOLESALE PRICES In December wholesale prices remained practically unchanged I N D E X IND EX v k OTHER THAN FARM PRODUCTS AND FOODS INDUSTRIAL SOURCE DEPARTMENT OF LABOR COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS Period All commodities 1939 monthly average 1944 monthly average 1946 monthly average 1948 monthly average 1949 monthly average 1950 monthly average 1951 monthly average 1952 monthly average 1953 monthly average 1953 November December 1954 January February March April May June July August September October November Week ended l 1954 December January 4 i Data for week nearest middle of month plotted as estimate for month Farm products Processed foods Other than farm products and foods industrial Source Department of Labor PRICES RECEIVED AND PAID BY FARMERS Prices received by farmers declined 2 percent during the month ended December 1 5 due to decreases in prices of hogs lettuce cotton milk and eggs Prices paid by farmers were unchanged INDEX INDEX i i t i Ij i i 3 j i I i i i m j I PARITY RATIO I RATIO OF INDEX OF PRICES RECEIVED TO PARITY INDEX SOURCE DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE 954 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS Prices paid b y farmers for items iised in Period Family living 1939 monthly average 1944 monthly average 1946 monthly average 1948 monthly average 1949 monthly average 1950 monthly average 1951 monthly average 1952 monthly average 1953 monthly average 1953 November 15 December January 15 February 15 March 15 April 15 May 15 June 15 July 15 August 15 September 15 October 15 November 15 December Parity index prices paid Prices received by farmers Production and wage rates Parity ratio d butteriat between October 943 and June 946 Source Department of Agriculture STOCK PRICES In December stock prices moved up to new hishs INDEX COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS SOURCE SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE COMMISSION Period Weekly average November December 1954 January February March April May June July August September October November December Week ended 1954 December Composite index Manufacturing Total Durable goods Nondurable goods Transportation Utilities Trade finance and service Mining S Includes 2C 6 common stocks 98 for durable goods manufacturing 72 for nondurable goods manufacturing 21 for transportation 29 for utilities 31 for trade finance and service and 14 for mining Indexes are for weekly closing prices i Data became available after chart was prepared Source Securities and Exchange Commission EMPLOYMENT AND WAGES STATUS OF THE LABOR FORCE Unemployment Fell slightly between early November and early December though a rise is usual at this time of the year There was also a slight decline in nonagricultural employment MILLIONS OF PERSONS MILLIONS OF PERSONS J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S 0 N D COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS Period 68 area sample monthly average 1949 monthly average 1950 monthly average monthly average 1952 monthly average 1953 monthly average November December 1954 January February 230 area sample January February March April May June July August September October November December Total labor force including armed forces Employment Civilian labor force Total Agricultural 1 Nonagricultural Temporary layoffs 2 Unemployment 3 Insured unemploy of ment Number civilian thousands labor of persons 4 force Thousands of persons 14 years of age and over cS Includes part time workers and those with jobs but not at work for such reasons as vacation illness bad weather temporary layoff and industrial disputes Shown separately so as to afford a basis for further analysis of employment and unemployment 3 See footnote 2 All programs Weekly average for period For description of series see Labor Market and Employment Security April 1954 s Pertains to labor force data only Data prior to 1953 not comparable with subsequent data Preliminary estimate Sources Department of Commerce labor force and Department of Labor insured unemployment NONAGRICULTURAL EMPLOYMENT Employment in nonagricultural establishments taken as a whole rose between November and December In the durable goods sector of manufacturing employment rose somewhat while in the nondurable goods sector employment fell somewhat as is usual at this time of the year MILLIONS OF WAGE AND SALARY WORKERS MILLIONS OF WAGE AND SALARY WORKERS II 0 8 5 DURABLE MANUFACTURING NONDURABLE MANUFACTURING J J F M A M J J A S O N J I L oil O F i M i A i M i J i J i A I S O N D 11 5 CONTRACT CONSTRUCTION WHOLESALE AND RETAIL TRADE 1952 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS SOURCE DEPARTMENT OF LABOR Thousands of wage and salary workers Period NovemberDecember 1954 January FebruaryMarch April May June July August September October 2 November December2 Total adjusted for seasonal variation Government Contract Wholesale Durable Nondu Mining construc and retail Federal tion State trade goods rable goods local Not adjusted for seasonal variation Manufacturing Total Total Other i Includes all full and part time wage and salary workers in nonagrieultural establishments who worked during or received pay for any part of the pay period ending nearest the 15th of the month Excludes proprietors self employed persons domestic servants and personnel of the armed forces Total derived from this table not comparable with estimates of nonagrieultural employment of the civilian labor force reported by the Department of Commerce p 7 which include proprietors self employed persons and domestic servants which count persons as employed when they are not at work because of industrial disputes and which are based on an enumeration of population whereas the estimates in this table are based on reports from employing establishments i Preliminary estimates December not charted Sources Department of Labor and Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System 8 AVERAGE WEEKLY HOURS SEUSCTED INDUSTRIES The average workweek of factory production workers rose from 40 2 hours in November to 40 5 hours in December A rise is usual at this time of the year HOURS PER WEEK HOURS PER WEEK NONDURABLE MANUFACTURING DURABLE MANUFACTURING 111 I i i i i 11 i i i RETAIL TRADE BUILDING CONSTRUCTION r i i i ii Ii ii ii 1954 SOURCE 1 DEPARTMENT OF LABOR COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS Hours per week for production workers or nonsupervisory employees Manufacturing I Period November December January FebruaryMarch April May June July August September October 23 November December2 Total Durable goods i Data beginning with January 1948 are not strictly comparable with those for earlier periods Preliminary estimates only manufacturing for Novemberf charted Source Department of Labor D f Ji rSuuaing Nondurable construction Retail trade goods C Not available 9 AVERAGE HOURLY EARNINGS SELECTED INDUSTRIES Hourly earnings of production workers in manufacturing industries averaged 1 83 in December the same as in November and 3 cents more than in December last year DOLLARS PER HOUR DOLLARS PER HOUR nn i 11 NONDURABLE MANUFACTURING 1953 PRICES17 CURRENT PRICES oO I I I I I M I I IT M i rn i M 1 1 1 1 M iTi n i 1952 I EARNINGS IN CURRENT PRICES DIVIDED BY CONSUMER PRICE INDEX i fl I I I I ON 8ASE 1953s 100 SOURCE DEPARTMENT OF LABOR COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS For production workers or nonsupervisory employees Period November December 1954 January February March April May June July August September October November 38 December Building Durable goods Nondurable good Eetail trade construction manufacturing manufacturing Current 1953 Current 1953 Current 1953 Current Current prices prices prices prices prices prices prices prices prices prices J All manufacturing 1 Earnings In current prices divided by consumer price index on base Data beginning with January 1948 are not strictly comparable with those for earlier periods Source Department of Labor 10 a Preliminary estimates only manufacturing for November charted Not available AVERAGE WEEKLY EARNINGS SELECTED INDUSTRIES The average weekly earnings of factory production workers rose to a new high of 74 12 in December 55 cents more than in November and 1 76 more than in December last year The gain for the month was due to the longer average workweek DOLLARS PER WEEK DOLLARS PER WEEK DURABLE MANUFACTURING NONDURABLE MANUFACTURING 1951 I 1952 I 1953 I EARNINGS IN CURRENT PRICES DIVIDED BY CONSUMER PRICE INDEX ON BASE SOURCE DEPARTMENT OF LABOR COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS For production workers or nonsupervisory employees All manufacturing Period Current 1953 prices prices November December January February March April May June July August September October November December Earnings in 2 Durable goods Nondurable goods Building Retail trade manufacturing manufacturing construction Current 1953 Current 1953 Current 1953 Current 1953 prices prices prices prices prices prices 1 prices prices l current prices divided by consumer price index on base Date beginning with January 1948 are not strictly comparable with jthose for earlier periods Source Department of Labor 8 Preliminary estimates only manufacturing for November charted Not available 11 PRODUCTION AND BUSINESS ACTIVITY INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION The industrial production index in November seasonally adjusted increased to due primarily to the continued increase in production of durable goods INDEX ITS J F M A M J J A S O N D F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D j PRELIMINARY ESTIMATES SOURCE BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM seasonally adjusted Total industrial Total production T J r enou October November December 1954 January February March April May June July August September October November Preliminary estimates COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS Manufactures f v nle Minerals ne Durable Nondurable Source Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System PRODUCTION OF SELECTED MANUFACTURES In November production in most industries registered additional gains INDEX SEASONALLY ADJUSTED INDEX SEASONALLY ADJUSTED 50 I I I I I I I I I 11 I I I I II I I t i I I I I I I I t I I I I I I I I MI I IN I I 50 I I I I I I I I I II I I I I I I I I I I I I I I M I I I I I I I I I I I I I SOURCE BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS seasonally adjusted Durable manufactures Transportation equipment October November December 1954 January February March April May June July August September October November Period Primary metals Lumber and Machinery products Nondurable manufactures Consumer Textiles Petroleum Food and Chemicals durable and and coal beverage and allied goods manuapparel products factures products Preliminary estimates Not available Source Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System SELECTED WEEKLY INDICATORS Production according to several weekly indicators continued to improve in December Electric power output was a an all time high Estimated passenger car production of 641 700 units was at a 50 month peak MILLIONS OF TONS MILLIONS OF SHORT TONS DAILY AVERAGE BITUMINOUS COAL STEEL 1953 y J 1 F 1 M i 1 A M I J J A S O N D J I F 1 M I A 1 I M J J 1 AS 1 I 0 I NO BILLIONS OF KILOWATT HOURS 10 ELECTRIC POWER SOURCES AMERICAN IRON AND STEEL INSTITUTE DEPARTMENT OF THE INTERIOR EDISON ELECTRIC INSTITUTE AND WARD S AUTOMOTIVE REPORTS COUNCIL OF ICONOMIC ADVISERS Electric Bituminous Freight Paperboard Steel produced Cars and trucks power coal mined loaded produced Thousands Percent of distributed thousands thousands thousands assembled thousands of net theoretical millions of of short Total Cars Trucks of tons of cars tons capacity kilowattrhours tons 2 Period Weekly average November December 1954 January February March April May June July August September October November December 8 Week ended 1954 December January i Percent of capacity based on weekly net ton capacity of for the first half of beginning July beginning January lf beginning January beginning January 1 1953 and beginning January 1 1954 and beginning January Daily average for week i Preliminary estimates Sources American Iron and Steel Institute Edison Electric Institute Department of the Interior Association of American Railroads National Paperboard Association and Ward s Automotive Reports 14 GROSS PRIVATE DOMESTIC INVESTMENT According to current estimates fixed investment rose by 700 million seasonally adjusted annual rate from the second to the third quarter with a rise of 1 3 billion in construction partially offset by a 600 million decline in producers1 durable equipment The decline of inventories continued with the rate of decline exceeding that of the preceding quarter BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 70 70 SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES GROSS PRIVATE DOMESTIC INVESTMENT 3 0 NEW CONSTRUCTION PRODUCERS DURABLE EQUIPMENT CHANGE IN BUSINESS INVENTORIES I i960 I V SOURCE DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS Billions of dollars Total gross private domestic investment Period Change in business inventories Fixed investment New construction Total Residential nonfarm Total Commercial and industrial 1 All other 2 Producers durable equipment Total Nonfarm Seasonally adjusted annual rates 1953 First quarter Second quarter Third quarter Fourth quarter 1954 First quarter Second quarter Third quarter i i Includes public utility Includes petroleum and natural gas well drilling NOTE The national income and expenditure series have been revised by the Department of Commerce For details see Survey of Current Business July 1954 Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding Source Department of Commerce 15 EXPENDITURES FOR NEW PLANT AND EQUIPMENT According to a survey made in November expenditures for new plant and equipment will continue at a high rate in the first quarter of 1955 although below the average for the year 1954 Business firms anticipate spending 26 6 billion seasonally adjusted annual rate in the fourth quarter of 1954 and 26 0 billion in the first quarter of 1955 For the year 1954 expenditures are expected to total 26 7 billion BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS ANNUAL TOTALS SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES ANUFACTURING 10 t COMMERCIAL AND OTH PUBLIC UTILITIES TRANSPORTATION J I I SEE NOTE 4 ON TABLE BELOW SOURCES SECURITIES AND EXCH 1953 I I COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS Billions of dollars Transportation Mining Durable NonduraRailroads Other goods ble goods Seasonally adjusted annual rates Manufacturing i i Period j H I 1951 J T Li Total i Tlhird quarter Fourth quarter First quarter Second quarter Tfiird quarter i Fburth quarter First quarter 4 Total Public utilities Commercial and other s a 12 i KxrliiclM agriculture Coiuiiiflrclnl and other includes trade service finance communications and construction A tin tin lotul l sum of seasonally unadjusted quarterly expenditures it does not necessarily coincide with average of seasonally adjusted figures in part IWIMW of tidjiHitiiiontfl when necessary for systematic tendencies in anticipatory data K itl ii ilfi l isi d on antleip i d capital expenditures as reported by business in November 1954 N tK Tttfw ni inni do not n riM with the totals included in the gross national product estimates of the Department of Commerce principally because the if COVIT npririiltuml lnv wtiin u an l also certain equipment and construction outlays charged to current expense l i titll will not nwvwiHrUy ad I to totals because of rounding Hoitrwui HwurtiiM ntid Kxch UIKW Commission and Department of Commerce 16 NEW CONSTRUCTION Expenditures for total new construction seasonally adjusted reached a new record level in December as a result of the continued rise in private residential and State and local construction 8ILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 3 5 SEASONALLY ADJUSTED TOTAL CONSTRUCTION PRIVATE RESIDENTIAL NONFARM OTHER PRIVATE FEDERAL STATE AND LOCAL I J F M A M J J A S O N J D I I I I J J 1954 J I I I I COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS SOURCES DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE AND DEPARTMENT OF LABOR Millions of dollars Total new construction Period 1939 monthly 1944 monthly 1946 monthly 1948 monthly 1949 monthly 1950 monthly 1951 monthly 1952 monthly 1953 monthly 1954 monthlv average average average average average average average average average average Private construction Total private Residential nonfarm Other Federal State and local AW C J r Unadjusted Seasonally adjusted 1953 November December 1954 January February March April Mav June July August September October November3 December Construction contracts awarded in 37 Eastern States Seasonally adjusted i Includes public residential construction Preliminary estimates a Compiled by P W Dodge Associates seasonally adjusted by the National Bureau of Economic Research Omits small contracts and covers rural areas less fully than urban Sources Department of Commerce Department of Labor and F W Dodge Associates except as noted J J NEW HOUSING STARTS In November nonfarm housing starts reached a new record for the month totaling or 26 percent higher than last year On a seasonally adjusted basis private starts in November were at an annual rate of nearly 1 4 million units the highest for any month since August 1950 THOUSANDS OF UNITS 1150 THOUSANDS OF UNITS ISO NEW NONFARM DWELLING UNITS IOO COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS SOURCE DEPARTMENT OF LABOR Thousands of units New housing starts Total Annual total October November 1 h cciuber January I Vbnmry March April M MV f U H Privately financed Period Mo av July AtUMISt S plrinl T Ortnhrr N t V l l l l I M f 515 0 b llf HI 0 Km 0 fi KM 1 Publicly financed o l Total Government underwritten Total i VA FHA Private seasonally adjusted annual rates a ttiorH fijM upitllrutiuii for m w hninc riui tritrtioti Kstimatad Not available Less than 50 units Drpiirltiii itl f Lulmi Fi ddti llmi JtH AdmHil trutloii FHA and Veterans Administration VA Proposed home construction Applications for Requests for VA FHA commit appraisals 1 ments s Preliminary estimates SALES AND INVENTORIES MANUFACTURING AND TRADE In November total inventories seasonally adjusted rose for the first time since September 1953 Total sales also rose with manufacturing showing the sharpest gains Manufacturers new orders increased in November to the highest level for the year Department store sales in December exceeded the level of a year earlier by 4 percent BILLJONS OF DOLLARS SEASONALLY ADJUSTED BILlJONS OF DOLLARS SEASONALLY ADJUSTED RETAIL TOTAL AND MANUFACTURING s INVENTORIES TiT l INVENTORIES TOTAL SALES 1 I III k i r 20 II DEPARTMENT STORES tt MANUJ ACTURING NTORIES INVE 1 I e s INDE X SEASONALLY ADJUSTED TOTA SALES f M I MANUFACTlJRING SALES 110 d INVENTORIES 1 N V Jv A f v Kf l B SALES I I I I I I I I I I 1 1I1 1 I 1 1 1I1 1953 i I II 1 I I IOO 1 1 i 1 1 I I 1 I II M M II M 1 1 1 II 1 1 1 1 M IL ERVE SYSTEM Period October November December 1954 January February March April May June July August September October November 66 December Manufacturing and trade 1 InvenSales2 tories Manufacturing Sales2 Inventories 8 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS Retail New orders2 Sales 2 Millions of dollars seasonally adjusted t Inventories Department stores Inventories 4 Index seasonally adjusted Sales 2 8 1 Also includes wholesale not shown separately In this table New series on retail trade beginning with 1951 not comparable with previous 2 Monthly average for year and total for month data See Survey of Current Business September and November 1952 for detail s Book value end of period Preliminary estimates Book value end of period except annual data which are monthly averages Sources Department of Commerce and Board of Governors of the Federal Keserve System 19 MERCHANDISE EXPORTS AND IMPORTS Commercial exports rose sharply in October while imports declined slightly from the preceding month For the first 10 months of this year commercial exports were 4 percent above and imports 8 percent below their levels in the corresponding period of last year MILLIONS OF DOLLARS 1 600 MILLIONS OF DOLLARS 1 600 MONTHLY AVERAGES TOTAL MERCHANDISE EXPORTS MERCHANDISE EXPORTS EXCLUDING GRANT AID SHIPMENTS TOTAL MERCHANDISE IMPORTS J 1949 I 1950 I I I I I 1951 J SEE FOOTNOTES I AND 2 ON TABLE BELOW COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS SOURCES DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE AND DEI Millions of dollars Merchandise exports Excess of exports or imports T 4 0 Period monthly average 1944 monthly average 1946 monthly average 1948 monthly average 1949 monthly average 1 950 monthly average monthly average 1952 monthly average 1953 monthly average 1953 September October November December 1954 January February March April May June Julv August September October Total Grant aid shipments a Excluding grant aid shipments Merchandise imports Total f Excluding grant aid shipments Includes shipments under the various grant aid programs for some of these programs separate data are not available Beginning with 1960 figures include only Department of Defense shipments of grant aid military supplies and equipment under the Mutual Security Program Shipments for the first 6 months of the program July December 1950 amounted to 282 million dollars NOTE Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding 20 Sources Department of Commerce and Department of Defense PURCHASING POWER NATIONAL INCOME According to very preliminary estimates national income declined by 1 5 billion seasonally adjusted annual rate between the second and third quarters reflecting a decline in corporate profits Employee compensation rose 600 million while farm income declined by a similar amount Other major components showed very little change BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES TOTAL NATIONAL INCOME COMPENSATION OF EMPLOYEES PROPRIETORS AND RENTAL INCOME CORPORATE PROFITS AND INVENTORY VALUATION ADJUSTMENT NET INTEREST y PRELIMINARY ESTIMATES BY COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS SOURCE DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE EXCEPT AS NOTED COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS Billions of dollars Period Proprietors income Rental income of persons Total national income First quarter Second quarter Third quarter Fourth quarter 1954 First quarter Second quarter Third quarter Compensation of em l ployees Seasonally adjusted annual rates Farm Business and professional Net interest Corporate profits and inventory valuation adjustment Total Profits Inventory before valuation taxes adjustment o 1 Includes 2 employer contributions for social insurance See also p 23 Preliminary estimates by Council of Economic Advisers NOTE The national Income and expenditure series have been revised by the Department of Commerce For details see Survey of Current Business July 1954 Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding Source Department of Commerce except as noted 21 CORPORATE PROFITS According to preliminary estimates corporate profits before taxes declined 1 billion seasonally adjusted annual rate between the second and third quarters Since the beginning of the year corporate profits both before and after taxes have been well below a year ago Abolition of the excess profits tax has contributed to the relatively favorable showing of profits after taxes BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 60 6O PROFITS BEFORE TAXES O ALLOWANCE FOR INVENTORY VALUATION ADJUSTMENT PRELIMINARY ESTIMATES BY COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS SOURCE DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE EXCEPT AS NOTED COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS Billions of dollars Corporate profits before taxes Period First q uarter Second quarter Third quarterFourth quarter 1954 First quarter Second quarter Third quarter Corporate tax liability Corporate profits after taxes Total Dividend payments Seasonally adjusted annual rates Undistributed profits i Preliminary estimates by Council of Economic Advisers NOTE See p 21 for profits before taxes and inventory valuation adjustment The national income and expenditure series have been revised by the Department of Commerce For details see Survey of Current Business July 1954 Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding Source Department of Commerce except as noted 22 SOURCES OF PERSONAL INCOME Personal income increased in November to 287 6 billion seasonally adjusted annual rate only about K billion below the record rate reached in July 1953 Wages and salaries accounted for the rise BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 300 I BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 300 SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES ANNUAL TOTALS TOTAL PERSONAL INCOME 250 LABOR INCOMEv ISO ISO IOO IOO BUSINESS PROFESSIONAL AND RENTAL INCOME FARM PROPRIETORS INCOME I944 I946 I948 I950 I952 I954 195I I952 SOURCE DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE Period October November December 1954 January February March April May June July August September October 4 November 1 2 Total personal income COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS Billions of dollars Labor income Proprietors income Less Per wage and Rental Personal Transfer sonal consalary distributions Business income Divi interest paybursements of dends Farm and proincome ments for social and other insurfessional persons labor income 1 ance Seasonally adjusted annual rates Compensation of employees see p 21 excluding employer contributions for social insurance Personal income exclusive of net income of unincorporated farm enterprises farm wages agricultural net interest and net dividends paid by agricultural corporations NOTE Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding 1954 Nonagricultural personal income Includes 2 7 billion National Service Life Insurance dividend most of which was paid in the first half of the year Preliminary estimates Source Department of Commerce 3 DISPOSITION OF PERSONAL INCOME Disposable personal income rose slightly between the second and third quarters according to current estimates Consumer spending rose 1 7 billion seasonally adjusted annual rate to a record level of 234 8 billion As a result the personal saving rate was reduced slightly to 7 3 percent BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS SOURCE DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS Less Period Equals DisposPersonal income Personal able l personal taxes income First quarter Second quarter Third quarter Fourth quarter 1954 First quarter Second quarter Third quarter Billions Less Personal consumption expenditures Total Equals Saving as percent of disPersonal posable NonDurable durable Services saving income goods goods Billions of dollars of dollars seasonally adjusted annual rates Includes such items as fines penalties and donations NOTE The national income and expenditure series have been revised by the Department of Commerce For details see Survey of Current Business July 1954 Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding Source Department of Commerce 24 PER CAPITA DISPOSABLE INCOME Per capita disposable income declined very slightly in the third quarter according to current estimates DOLLARS 2 000 DOLLARS 2 000 ANNUAL AVERAGES SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES 1953 PRICES CURRENT PRICES I 1942 I 1944 I I I I 1946 I 1948 I I I 1950 I j I 1952 I J L J SEE NOTE 2 ON TABLE BELOW SOURCES DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE AND COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS Total disposable personal Per capita disposable perincome billions of dollars 1 sonal income dollars 1 Period Current prices prices Current prices prices Population thousands Seasonally adjusted annual rates 1953 First quarter Second quarter Third quarter Fourth quarter 1954 First quarter Second quarter Third quarter i Income less taxes 3 Dollar estimates in current prices divided by consumer price index on base Includes armed forces overseas Annual data as of July 1 quarterly data centered in the middle of the period interpolated from monthly figures NOTE The national income and expenditure series have been revised by the Department of Commerce For details see Survey of Current Business July 1954 Sources Department of Commerce and Council of Economic Advisers 25 FARM INCOME During the first 11 months of 1954 farmers received an average of 2 5 billion per month from cash marketings and Government payments about 4 percent below the same period of 1953 Cash receipts from livestock and products were down 3 percent and crop receipts about 6 percent BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC Parity index prices paid Cash receipts from marketings interest taxes and wage rates Livestock and Crops products Farm income millions of dollars current prices Cash receipts and Government payments Period 1939 monthly average 1944 monthly average 1946 monthly average 1948 monthly average 1949 monthly average 1950 monthly average 1951 monthly average 1952 monthly average 1953 monthly average 1953 October November December 1954 January February March April A J j Mav June July August September October November 3 COD verted from the reported base to the base Farm income in current dollars divided by parity index on base Preliminary estimates Source Department of Agriculture 26 Farm income millions of dollars 1953 prices CREDIT MONEY AND FEDERAL FINANCE BANK LOANS INVESTMENTS AND RESERVES Total loans and investments of commercial banks rose 2 billion in November almost entirely as a result of increased loans BILLIONS Of DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS END OF YEAR END OF MONTH SOURCE BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS Billions of dollars Weekly reporting member banks All commercial banks End of period October November December January February March April May June July 3 8 August September 8 October 3 November 3 December Total loans and investments Investments U S Gov Loans Total ernment securities Other securities Business loans l All member banks Reserve balances Required Excess i Commercial Industrial and agricultural loans revised series beginning January 1952 Preliminary estimates 3 Data are averages of daily figures on balances and borrowings during the period Member banks include besides all national banks those State banks that have taken membership in the Federal Reserve System NOTE Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding Source Board of Governors of the Federal Eeserve System 2 Borrow ings at Federal Reserve Banks CONSUMER CREDIT Total consumer credit outstanding rose again in November As in the previous month the increase was due primarily to an increase in charge accounts and in instalment credit for consumer durables other than automobiles BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 35 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 35 INSTALMENT CREDIT EXTENDED INSTALMENT CREDIT REPAID I SOURCE BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM 1955 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS Millions of dollars Total consumer End of period credit outstanding October November December 1954 January FebruaryMarch April May June July August SeptemberOctober November Instalment credit outstanding Total Automobile paper b Other Repair and consumer moderni Personal zation loans goods loans paper l JN oninstalment credit outstanding Total Charge accounts InstalInstalment ment credit ex credit3 8 repaid tended Includes all consumer credit extended for the purpose of purchasing automobiles and other consumer goods and secured by the items purchased Includes only such loans held by financial institutions those held by retail outlets are included in other consumer goods paper Credit extended or repaid during the period NOTE Data beginning January 1953 have been revised Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding 28 Source Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System BOND YIELDS AND INTEREST RATES In December bond yields and interest rates were either slightly higher than or unchanged from the previous monthRates continued at levels appreciably below those of 1953 PERCENT PER ANNUM 35 PERCENT PER ANNUM COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS Percent per annum U S Government security yields High grade 3 month Period Taxable bonds 2 municipal Treasury s 4 bonds 5 Old series New series bills November December January February March April May June July August September October November December Week ended December January 8 Rate on new issues within period 2 Bonds in this classification were first issued in March 1941 Beginning April 1952 2H pereent bonds first callable after 12 years Prior only bonds due or callable after 15 years were included to that Corporate bonds Moody s Prime commercial paper 4 6 months Aaa Baa 3M pereent bonds of issued May Standard and Poor s Weekly data are Wednesday figures Source Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System 23 MONEY SUPPLY The privately held money supply increased by 1 2 billion in November due to increases in adjusted demand deposits and circulating currency Time deposits fell by 400 million BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS TOTAL EXCLUDING U S GOVERNMENT DEPOSITS PRIVATELY HELD MONEY SUPPLY END OF YEAR J F M A M J J A S O N D J F w A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D END OF MONTH COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS SOURCE BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM Billions of dollars Total deposits and currency End of period October November December 1954 January February March April May June July August 4 September 4 October 4 4 November U S Government deposits Total excluding U S Government deposits privately held money supply Demand Currency Time outside Total deposits deposits B adjusted banks Includes U S Government deposits at Federal Reserve banks and commercial and savings banks and U S Treasurer s time deposits open account 2 Includes demand deposits other than interbank and U S Government less cash items in process of collection 8 Includes deposits in commercial banks mutual savings banks and Postal Savings System but excludes interbank deposits Preliminary estimates NOTB Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding Source Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System FEDERAL BUDGET RECEIPTS AND EXPENDITURES Total budget expenditures declined from 4 9 billion in October to 3 8 billion in November largely due to the sale to private banks of certificates of interest in Commodity Credit Corporation loans Budget receipts rose seasonally from 2 6 billion in October to 4 2 billion in November The cumulative budget deficit for the first 5 months of fiscal year 1955 was 6 7 billion compared with 6 9 billion at the same time last year BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS TOTAL BUDGET EXPENDITURES NET BUDGET RECEIPTS 75 SFSU 25 0 I NATIONAL SECURITY PROGRAMS BUDGET SURPLUS OR DEFICIT MAGNIFIED SCALE FISCAL YEARS ESTIMATED SOURCES TREASURY DEPARTMENT AND BUREAU OF THE BUDGET COUNCIL 0F ECONOMIC ADVISERS Billions of dollars Net budget receipts Period Fiscal Fiscal Fiscal Fiscal Fiscal Fiscal Fiscal Fiscal Fiscal Fiscal 1953 year 1944 year 1947 year year 1949 year 1950 vear 1951 year 1952 vear vear 1954 year 1955 estimated October November December 1954 January February March April May June July August September October November Cumulative totals for first 5 months Fiscal year 1954 Fiscal vear Budget expenditures National Total security Budget surplus or deficit Public debt end of period i Revised to include the items classified as national security in The Budget of The United States Government for the Fiscal Year Ending June SO 1956 These expenditure items are Military functions of Defense Department mutual military program development and control of atomic energy and allocation of critical and strategic materials i Includes guaranteed securities except those held by the Treasury Not all of total shown is subject to statutory debt limitation NOTE Beginning with February 1954 the reporting of budget receipts and expenditures is on a basis consistent with that used in preparing budget estimates The figures shown above for fiscal years 1963 and 1954 are those published by the Treasury Department on the new basis Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding Sources Treasury Department and Bureau of the Budget Q1 FEDERAL CASH RECEIPTS FROM AND PAYMENTS TO THE PUBLIC The cash deficit for the quarter ending In September was 4 8 billion reflecting to a considerable degree the seasonally low receipts during the first half of the fiscal year BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 25 I CASH RECEIPTS f CASH PAYMENTS LL m EXCESS OF CASH RECEIPTS EXCESS OF CASH PAYMENTS CALENDAR YEARS SOURCES BUREAU OF THE BUDGET AND TREASURY DEPARTMENT COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS Millions of dollars Calendar year Calendar year total Quarterly totals not adjusted for seasonal variation 1952 Third quarter Fourth quarter Cash receipts from the public Cash payments to the public Excess of receipts or payments SB First quarter Second quarter Third quarter Fourth quarter First quarter Second quarter Third quarter Preliminary estimates NOTB Detail will not nnewwarily add to totals because nf rounding Sources Bureau of the Budget and Treasury Department For sale by the Superintendent of Documents U S Government Printing Office Washington 25 D C Price 20 cents per copy per year 2 50 foreign V S G O V E R N M E N T P R I N T I N G O F F I C E 19SS

Money Supply

DATE: January 1955

PART OF:

Economic Indicators : January 1955

AUTHOR:

Council of Economic Advisers (U.S.)

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Council of Economic Advisers (U.S.) , United States. Congress. Joint Committee on the Economic Report, 1946-1956 and United States. Congress. Joint Economic Committee, 1956-. "Money Supply," in Council of Economic Advisers (U.S.) , United States. Congress. Joint Committee on the Economic Report, 1946-1956 and United States. Congress. Joint Economic Committee, 1956-. "January 1955," Economic Indicators (January 1955) : 33-33. https://fraser.stlouisfed.org/title/1/item/303/toc/413294 , accessed on December 8, 2019.

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Economic Data