Money Supply

Name: Money Supply
Creator: FRASER
Keywords: Economic Data, Economic indicators, Economic conditions, United States

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The following is plain-text output generated by Optical Character Recognition. 8 d Congress 2d Session Economic Indicators DECEMBER 1954 Prepared for the Joint Committee on the Economic Report by the Council of Economic Advisers UNITED STATES GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE WASHINGTON JOINT COMMITTEE ON THE ECONOMIC REPORT Created pursuant to See 5 a of Public Law 304 79th Cong JESSE P WOLCOTT Michigan Chairman RALPH E FLANDERS Vermont Vice Chairman RICHARD M SIMPSON Pennsylvania HENRY O TALLE Iowa GEORGE H BENDER Ohio EDWARD J HART New Jersey WRIGHT PATMAN Texas RICHARD BOLLING Missouri ARTHUR V WATKINS Utah BARRY GOLDWATER Arizona FRANK CARLSON Kansas JOHN SPARKMAN Alabama PAUL H DOUGLAS Illinois J WILLIAM FULBRIGHT Arkansas GROVER W ENSLEYS Staff Director JOHN W LEHMAN Clerk COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS ARTHUR F BURNS Chairman NEIL H JACOBY WALTER W STEWART PUBLIC LAW 120 81sT CONGRESS CHAPTER 237 IST SESSION JOINT RESOLUTION S J Res 55 To print the monthly publication entitled Economic Indicators Resolved by the Senate and House of Representatives of the United States of America in Congress assembled That the Joint Committee on the Economic Report be authorized to issue a monthly publication entitled Economic Indicators and that a sufficient quantity be printed to furnish one copy to each Member of Congress the Secretary and the Sergeant at Arms of the Senate the Clerk Sergeant at Arms and Doorkeeper of the House of Representatives two copies to the libraries of the Senate and House and the Congressional Library seven hundred copies to the Joint Committee on the Economic Report and the required number of copies to the Superintendent of Documents for distribution to depository libraries and that the Superintendent of Documents be authorized to have copies printed for sale to the public Approved June Charts drawn by Graphics Unit Office of the Secretary Department of Commerce ll Contents THE TOTAL OUTPUT OF THE ECONOMY The Nation s Economic Accounts Gross National Product or Expenditure PRICES Consumer Prices Wholesale Prices Prices Received and Paid by Farmers Stock Prices EMPLOYMENT AND WAGES Status of the Labor Force Nonagricultural Employment Average Weekly Hours Selected Industries Average Hourly Earnings Selected Industries Average Weekly Earnings Selected Industries PRODUCTION AND BUSINESS ACTIVITY Industrial Production Production of Selected Manufactures Selected Weekly Indicators Gross Private Domestic Investment Expenditures for New Plant and Equipment New Construction New Housing Starts Sales and Inventories Manufacturing and Trade Merchandise Exports and Imports PURCHASING POWER National Income Corporate Profits Sources of Personal Income Disposition of Personal Income Per Capita Disposable Income Farm Income CREDIT MONEY AND FEDERAL FINANCE Bank Loans Investments and Reserves Consumer Credit Bond Yields and Interest Rates Money Supply Federal Budget Receipts and Expenditures Federal Cash Receipts From and Payments to the Public THE TOTAL OUTPUT OF THE ECONOMY THE NATION S ECONOMIC ACCOUNTS Current estimates of total income and expenditures reflect substantial stability of over all economic activity from the early part of the year through the ihird quarter BILLIONS OF DOLLARS SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES ANNUAL TOTALS CONSUMERS DISPOSABLE INCOME I I I I I I I L I I I I L BUSINESS 100 GOVERNMENT FEDERAL STATE AND LOCAL EXPENDITURES FOR GOODS AND SERVICES EXCESS OF RECEIPTS RECEIPTS LESS TRANSFER PAYMENTS I 1942 I 1944 I 1946 I I I 1948 I I 1950 J L J 1952 L J S NET FOREIGN INVESTMENT AND GROSS PRIVATE DOMESTIC INVESTMENT 2y JNCLUDES UNDISTRIBUTED CORPORATE PROFITS AND CORPORATE INVENTORY VALUATION ADJUSTMENT AND CAPITAL CONSUMPTION ALLOWANCES NOTE THE SUM OF THE THREE INCOME AND RECEIPT ITEMS SHOWN IN THIS CHART IS NOT EQUAL TO THE SUM OF THE EXPENDITURES OR GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT BECAUSE OF STATISTICAL DISCREPANCIES FOR EXPLANATION AND USE OF THIS ARRANGEMENT SEE SENATE REPORT NO 1295 JOINT ECONOMIC REPORT PP AND THE ANNUAL ECONOMIC REPORT OF THE PRESIDENT JANUARY 1953 APPENDIX A SOURCES DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE AND COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC AD GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT OR EXPENDITURE llu gtcm national product changed very little between the second and third quarters according to current estimates A further decline in Federal expenditures was almost offset by increases in other categories of expenditures BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS ANNUAL TOTALS SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES GOVERNMENT PURCHASES OF GOODS AND SERVICES 50 GROSS PRIVATE DOMESTIC INVESTMENT NET FOREIGN INVESTMENT I I I I I I COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS SOURCE DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE Billions of dollars Personal Gross Total conNet private gross sump domestic foreign national tion investproduct expend investment ment itures Period First quarter Second quarter Third quarter Fourth quarter 1954 First quarter Second quarter Third Quarter Government purchases of goods and services Federal State and Total i Total i National Other 2 local security Seasonally adjusted annual rates i Less Government sales a Includes expenditures for military services international security and foreign relations except foreign loans development and control of atomic energy promotion of the merchant marine promotion of defense production and economic stabilization and civil defense For further details see Annual Economic Report of the President January 1954 p 167 and Survey of Current Business July 1953 p 10 These expenditures are not comparable with the national security category in The Budget oftht 17 S Government for the Fiscal Year Ending June SO 1956 and shown on p 31 of Economic Indicators NOTE The national income and expenditure series have been revised by the Department of Commerce For details see Survey of Current Business July 1954 Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding Source Department of Commerce PRICES CONSUMER PRICES In October consumer prices declined slightly on the average for the third consecutive month INDEX INDEX I I I I I I I I I I 1 1 I 1 I SOURCE I I I t I I I I DEPARTMENT OF LABOR COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS All items Period 1939 monthly average 1944 monthly average 1946 monthly average 1948 monthly average 1949 monthly average 1950 monthly average 1951 monthly average 1952 monthly average 1953 monthly average 1953 September October November December 1954 January February March April May June July August September October 1 Not available f Food Housing Total f C n Apparel Rent Transportation C1 w Source Department of Labor Reading Other goods and Medical Personal and recreacare care services tion C C C1 C11 C C11 C WHOLESALE PRICES In November the average level of wholesale prices remained practically unchanged from the preceding month INDEX I947 49 IOO 120 I N D E X SOURCE DEPARTMENT OF LABOR COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS Period 1939 monthly average montbly average 1946 monthlv average monthly average 1949 monthly average 1950 monthly average monthly average 1952 monthly average 1953 monthly average 1953 October November December January February March April May June July August September October November Week ended 1954 December 7 Source Department of Labor All commodities Farm products Processed foodfi Other than farm products and foods industrial PRICES RECEIVED AND PAID BY FARMERS Prices received by farmers rose about 1 percent during the month ended November 15 due to increases in prices of commercial vegetables eggs milk and wheat Prices paid by farmers were unchanged I N D E X e 100 INDEX J RATIO OF INDEX OF PRICES RECEIVED TO PARITY INDEX SOURCE DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE I 1954 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS fl91 M4 1001 Prices paid h y farmers for items ijsed in Period Family living mouth v nont hlv nonthlv nont hlv nonthlv nonthlv nonthlv no ni lil v nonthlv average average average average average average average average average 1953 Ololwr 15 November 15 December an 1 1 arv 15 February 15 March J5 A p r i l M a v 15 u n c 15 I n l v 15 August Pen ember 1 5 October 15 November T Parity index prices paid Prices received 7 b farmers Pi eduction and wage rates Paritv ratio l Pern mage ratio of index of prices received by farmers to parity index Includes wartime subsidy payments paid on beef catiie sheep lambs milt and butterfat between October 1943 and June 1946 Source Department of Agriculture STOCK PRICES Stock prices continued upward at an increased rate in November INDEX WEEKLY AVERAGE WEEKLY INDEX Y UTILITIES F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D 1954 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS Compositel index Period Weeklv average S October November December 1954 Januarv February March April May June July August September October November Week ended 1954 November December Manufacturing Total Durable goods Nondurable goods Transportation Utilities Trade finance and service Mining W ft fi Includes 265 common stocks 98 for durable goods manufacturing 72 lor nondurable goods manufacturing 21 for transportation 29 for utilities 31 for trade finance and service and 14 for mining Indexes are for weekly closing prices 1 Data became available after ebart was prepared Source Securities and Eiehange Commission EMPLOYMENT AND WAGES STATUS OF THE LABOR FORCE Unemployment rose between early October and early November by less than is usual at this time of the year agricultural employment rose more than seasonally for the third consecutive month IONS OF PERSONS MILLIONS OF PERSONS YEARS OF AGE AND O V E R COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS SOURCE DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE Period 68 area sample monthly average 1949 monthly average 1950 monthly average 1951 monthly average 1952 me nthly average 1953 monthly average 1953 October November December 1954 January February area sample January February March April Mav June Julv August September October November 1 2 Non Total labor force including armed forces Unemployment 3 Tempo of rary Agricul Nonagri layoffs 2 Number civilian Total labor tural cultural force Thousands of persons 14 years of age and over Employment Civilian labor force Insured unemployment thousands4 of persons L i i 198 136 I Includes part time workers and those with jobs but not at work for such reasons as vacation illness bad weather temporary layoff and industrial disputes 3 Shown separately so as to afford a basis for further analysis of employment and unemployment See footnote 2 All programs Weekly average for period For description of series see Labor Market and Employment Security April 1954 Pertains to labor force data only Data prior to 1953 not comparable with subsequent data Preliminary estimate Sources Department of Commerce labor force and Department of Labor insured unemployment 1 NONAGRICULTURAL EMPLOYMENT In November employment in nonagriculturai establishments taken as a whole continued the more than seasonal rise that began in September Employment rose more than seasonally in the durable goods sector of manufacturing and fell less than seasonally in the nondurable goods sector MILLIONS OF WAGE AND S A L A R Y WORKERS MILLIONS OF WAGE AND S A L A R Y W O R K E R S DURABLE MANUFACTURING NONDURABLE MANUFACTURING J CONTRACT CONSTRUCTION F M A M J J A S O N D WHOLESALE AND RETAIL TRADE COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS l Thousands of wage and salary workers Period October November December 1954 January February March April Mav June July August SeptemberOctober2 November 2 Total adjusted for seasonal variation US Government Contract Wholesale Durable Nondu Mining construc and retail Federal State tion trade goods rable goods local Not adjusted for seasonal variation Manufacturing Total Total Other Ineludes aJJ lull and part time wage and salary workers in nonaRricuItural establisUments wDo worked during or reevived pay for any part of the pay period ending nearest the 15th of the month Excludes proprietors self employed persons domestic servants and personnel of the armed forces Total derived from this table not comparable with estimates of nonaprieultural employment of the civilian labor force reported by the Department of Commerce p 7 which include proprietors self employed persons and domestic servants which count persons as employed when they are not at work because of industrial disputes and which are based on an enumeration of population whereas the estimates in this table arp based on reports from employing establishments J Preliminary estimates Sources Department of Labor and Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System 8 AVERAGE WEEKLY HOURS SELECTED INDUSTRIES Although a decrease is usual at this time of the year the average workweek of factory production workers rose from 39 9 hours in October to 40 1 hours in November HOURS PER WEEK HOURS PER WEEK DURABLE MANUFACTURING NONDURABLE MANUFACTURING BUILDING CONSTRUCTION RETAIL TRADE X A i 36 1 i i l l COUNCR OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS Hours per week for production workers or non supervisory employees Manufacturing I Period Total October November December January February March April Mav June July August September 2 October 2 November Durable goods i Data beginning with January 1948 are not strictly comparable with those for earlier periods Preliminary estimates Source Department of l abor Nondurable goods Building construction Retail trade Not available s Q AVERAGE HOURLY EARNINGS SELECTED INDUSTRIES Hourly earnings of production workers in manufacturing industries averaged 1 82 in November 1 cent more than in October and 3 cents more than in November of last year DOLLARS PER DOLLARS PER HOUR HOUR RETAIL TRADE F r PRICES r CURRENT PRICES L ft ri M I I I M 1 I I D 1 I I I I I I I I I I I I M I M I I IT I I M I I u EARNINGS IN CURRENT PRICES DIVIDED BY CONSUMER PRICE INDEX o rI M J 1 L F ON BASE SOURCE DEPARTMENT OF LABOR COUNCIl OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS For production workers or nonsupervisory employees Period October November December 1954 January February March April May June Julv August September October 3 3 November All manufacturing Current prices prices l L Building Durable goods Nondurable goods Retail trade construction manufacturing manufacturing Current Current Current 1953 Current prices l prices prices prices l prices prices l prices prices l M Earnings in current prices divided by consumer price Index on base Data beginning with January 1948 are not strictly comparable with those for earlier periods Source Department of Labor 3 10 3 Preliminary estimates Not available AVERAGE WEEKLY EARNINGS SELECTED INDUSTRIES The average weekly earnings of factory production workers rose to 72 98 in November 76 cents more than in October and 1 38 more than in November of last year The gain for the month was due largely to the longer average workweek D O L L A R S PER WEEK D O L L A R S PER WEEK DURABLE MANUFACTURING I95i NONDURABLE MANUFACTURING RETAIL TRADE 1953 PRICES 1951 I 1952 I 1953 I 1954 r EARNINGS IN CURRENT PRICES DIVIDED et CONSUMER PRICE INDEX ON BASE SOURCE DEPARTMENT OF LABOR COUNCIt OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS For production workers or nonsupervisory employees All manufacturing Period October November December 1954 January February March April May June Julv August September October 3 3 November 1 3 Current prices 1953 prices j Building Durable goods IS ondurable goods construction manufacturing manufacturing 1953 Current Current Current prices J prices l prices prices prices l prices Earnlnp v In current prloKs divided by consumer price index on base Data beginning with January 1948 are not strictly comparable with those for earlier periods Source Department of Labor Retail trade Current prices prices J Preliminary estimates Not available 11 PRODUCTION AND BUSINESS ACTIVITY INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION The industrial production index in November seasonally adjusted increased to due primarily to the continued increase in production of durable oods 175 INDEX J F M A M J J A S O N DlJ F M A M J 1952 J A S O N D J 1953 F M A M J J A S O N D 1954 PRELIMINARY ESTIMATES SOURCE BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS seasonally adjusted Total industrial Total production October November December 1954 January February March April Mav June July August September October November Preliminary estimates Manufactures Minerals Durable S Nondurable C Source Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System PRODUCTION OF SELECTED MANUFACTURES In November production in most industries registered additional gains INDEX SEASONALLY ADJUSTED INDEX SEASONALLY ADJUSTED I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I 1 I M 1I I I I I I 1 I I I I I M SOURCE BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE F E D E R A L R E S E R V E SYSTEM COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVSSERS seasonally adjusted Durable manufactures Period Transportation equipment Primary metals October November December 1954 January February March April May June Julv August September October November Lumber and Machinery products Nondurable manufactures Consumer Textiles Petroleum Food and Chemicals durable and and coal beverage and allied goods manuapparel products factures products i Preliminary estimates 2 Not available Source Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System SELECTED WEEKLY INDICATORS Production according to most weekly indicators continued to improve in November and early December Passenger car production is currently scheduled at 636 700 units in December the highest monthly rate since 1950 MILLIONS OF TONS MILLIONS OF SHORT TONS DAILY AVERAGE STEEL BITUMINOUS COAL I J F M A M J J A S 0 N D J F M A I I M BILLIONS OF KILOWATT HOURS 10 ELECTRIC POWER 1953 SOURCES AMERICAN IRON AND STEEL INSTITUTE DEPARTMENT OF THE INTERIOR EDISON ELECTRIC INSTITUTE AND WARD S AUTOMOTIVE REPORTS Period COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS Bituminous Freight Paperboard Electric Cars and trucks Steel produced coal mined power produced loaded Thousands Percent of distributed thousands thousands thousands assembled thousands of short theoretical millions of of net Total Cars Trucks of tons of cars capacity 1 kilowatt hours tons 2 tons Weekly average October November December 1954 January February March April May June Julv August September October 3 November Week ended 1954 November December 4 3s 11 i Percent of capacity based on weekly net ton capacity for the first half of beginning July beginning January beginning January beginning January 1 1953 and beginning January Daily average for week Preliminary estimates Sources American Iron and Steel Institute Edison Electric Institute Department of the Interior Association of American Railroads National Paperboard Association and Ward s Automotive Reports 14 GROSS PRIVATE DOMESTIC INVESTMENT According to current estimates fixed investment rose by 700 million seasonally adjusted annual rate from the second to the third quarter with a rise of 1 3 billion in construction partially offset by a 600 million decline in producers durable equipment The decline of inventories continued with the rate of decline exceeding that of the preceding quarter BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 70 70 SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES ACROSS PRIVATE DOMESTIC INVESTMENT NEW CONSTRUCTION PRODUCERS DURABLE EQUIPMENT CHANGE IN BUSINESS INVENTORIES I I V SOURCE DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS Billions of dollars Period Total gross private domestic investment Change in business inventories Fixed investment New construction Total Residential nonfarm Total CommerAll 2 cial and industrial 1 other Producers durable equipment Total Nonfarm Seasonally adjusted annual rates 1953 First quarter Second quarter Third quarter Fourth quarter 1 954 First quarter Second quarter Third quarter i Includes public utility 2 includes petroleum and natural gas well drilling NOTE The national income and expenditure series have been revised by the Department of Commerce For details see Survey of Current Business July 1954 Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding Source Department of Commerce 15 EXPENDITURES FOR NEW PLANT AND EQUIPMENT According to a survey made in November expenditures for new plant and equipment will continue at a high rate in the first quarter of 1955 although below the average for the year 1954 Business firms anticipate spending 26 6 billion seasonally adjusted annual rate in the fourth quarter of 1954 and 26 0 billion in the first quarter of 1955 For the year 1954 expenditures are expected to total 26 7 billion BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS ANNUAL TOTALS I955 I95I SOURCES SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE COMMISSION AND DEPARTMENT OP COMMERCE COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS Billions of dollars Transportation Mining Durable NonduraRailroads Other goods ble goods Seasonally adjusted annual rates M anuf aeturing Period Third quarter Fourth quarter 1954 First quarter Second quarter Third quarter Fourth quarter 4 1955 First quarter 4 Total Total Public Commerutilities cial and other s a 12 i Excludes agriculture Commercial and other includes trade service finance communications and construction Annual total is sum of seasonally unadjusted quarterly expenditures it does not necessarily coincide with average of seasonally adjusted figures in part because of adjustments when necessary for systematic tendencies in anticipatory data 4 Estimates based on anticipated capital expenditures as reported by business in November 1954 NOTI These figures do not agree with the totals included in the gross national product estimates of the Department of Commerce principally because the latter cover agricultural investment and also certain equipment and construction outlays charged to current expense Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding Sources Securities and Exchange Commission and Department of Commerce 16 NEW CONSTRUCTION Expenditures for total new construction seasonally adjusted reached a new high in November 8 percent above November 1953 Construction contracts awarded in 37 Eastern States continued at a high level BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 3 5 SEASONALLY ADJUSTED TOTAL CONSTRUCTION 3 0 TOTAL PRIVATE PRIVATE RESIDENTIAL NONFARM OTHER PRIVATE FEDERAL STATE AND LOCAL J I I I I I I I I I M J J 1954 SOURCES D E P A R T M E N T OF C O M M E R C E AND DEPARTMENT OF LABOR COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS Millions of dollars Period 1939 monthly average 1944 mon thl v average 1 946 monthly average 1948 monthly average 1949 monthly average 1950 monthly average 1951 monthly average J952 monthly average 1953 monthly average Total new construction Private construction Residential nonfarm Total private Other Federal State and local l Seasonal 7 adjusted 1953 October November December 1954 January February March April Mav June July August September October November Oil Oil Construction contracts awarded in 37 Eastern States l 454 Seasonally Unadjusted adjusted L L 733 L Includes Dublie residential construction Preliminary estimates 2 Compiled by F W Dodge Associates seasonally adjusted by the National Bureau of Economic Research Omits small contracts and covers rural areas less fully than urban Sources Department of Commerce Department of Labor and F W Dodge Associates except as noted J NEW HOUSING STARTS In November nonfarm housing starts reached a new record for the month totaling or 26 percent higher than last year On a seasonally adjusted basis private starts in November were at an annual rate of nearly 1 4 million units the highest for any month since Aug 1950 THOUSANDS OF UNITS ISO THOUSANDS OF UNITS NEW NONFARM DWELLING UNITS r lTl g r r IOO COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS SOURCE DEPARTMENT OF LABOR Thousands of units New housing starts Privately financed Period Total Annual total Mo av October November December 1954 Januarv February March April Mav June July August September October November I O l 515 0 t V Publicly financed o Total Mil Government underwritten Total FHA VA Private seasonally adjusted annual rates i iss 1 211 M 232 M Units in mortgage applications for new home construction Estimated Not available Less than 60 units Sources Department of Labor Federal Housing Authority FHA and Veterans Administration VA Proposed home construction Applications for Requests for VA FHA commit appraisals 1 ments Preliminary estimates SALES AND INVENTORIES MANUFACTURING AND TRADE Manufacturers inventories seasonally adjusted increased slightly in October due to an increase in inventories of durable goods producers Inventories of retailers continued to decline Total sales by manufacturers and distributors in October were lower than in September However retail sales in November exceeded every month this year except June Manufacturers new orders in October exceeded sales for the second consecutive month BIL LIONS OF DOLLARS SEASONALLY ADJUSTED BILL IONS OF DOLLARS SEASONALLY TOTAL AND MANUFACTURING ADJUSTED RETAIL INVENTORIES1 x TOTAL SALES INVENTORIES l M 111 M 1951 TOTA INDE X SALES M l I SEASONALLY M i l 1 M M M ADJUSTED DEPARTMENT STORES fcjfc s J X X MANUI ACTURING INVE NTORIES x x INVENTORIES V S f x A MANUFACT JRIN6 SALES A L f V M SALES 0 1 l I I 11 I II II MM M i l l II Ill II M M v III 1 III WHOLESALE MANUFACTURING AND RETAIL SOURCES DEPARTMENT OF Period September October November December 1954 January February March April Mav June Julv August September October e 6 November COMMERCE AND BOARD OF GOVERNORS Manufacturing and trade 1 InvenSales 2 tories OF THE FEDEF AL RES ERVE SYSTEM Manufacturing Sales 2 Inventories 3 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS Retail New orders 2 Sales 2 Millions of dollars seasonally adjusted Inventories Department stores Inventories 4 Index seasonally adjusted Sales 2 s J Also includes wholesale not sbown separately In this table New series on retail trade beginning with 1951 not comparable with previous 2 Monthly average for year and total lor month data See Survey of Current Business September and November 1952 for detail 6 s Book value end of period Preliminary estimates 4 Book value end of period except annual data which are monthly averages Sources Department of Commerce and Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System 19 MERCHANDISE EXPORTS AND IMPORTS Commercial exports rose sharply in October while imports declined slightly from the preceding month For the first 10 months of this year commercial exports were 4 percent above and imports 8 percent below their levels in the corresponding period of last year MILLIONS OF DOLLARS MILLIONS OF DOLLARS MERCHANDISE EXPORTS EXCLUDING GRANT AID SHIPMENTS I94S I N J SEE FOOTNOTES I AND 2 ON TABLE BELOW COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS SOURCES DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE AND DEI Millions of dollars Merchandise exports Period monthly average 1944 monthly average 1946 monthly average 1948 monthly average 1949 monthly average 1950 monthly average 1951 monthly average monthly average 1953 monthly average September October November December January February March April May June July Ausrust September 3 October Total i Excess of e xports v a or imports f Grant aid shipments 2 Excluding grant aid shipments Merchandise imports Total Excluding grant aid shipments i Includes shipments under the various grant aid programs for some of these programs separate data are not available 3 Beginning with 1950 figures include only Department ol Defense shipments of grant aid military supplies and equipment under the Mutual Security Program Shipments for the first 6 months of the program July December 1960 amounted to 282 million dollars 8 Preliminary estimates Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding Sources Department of Commerce and Department of Defense 20 PURCHASING POWER NATIONAL INCOME According to very preliminary estimates national income declined by 1 5 billion seasonally adjusted annual rate between the second and third quarters reflecting a decline in corporate profits Employee compensation rose 600 million while farm income declined by a similar amount Other major components showed very little change BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES 300 COMPENSATION OF EMPLOYEES 100 IOO PROPRIETORS AND RENTAL INCOME CORPORATE PROFITS AND INVENTORY VALUATION ADJUSTMENT I942 I944 I946 I948 I960 I952 I954 I95I I952 NET INTEREST PRELIMINARY ESTIMATES BY COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS SOURCE DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE EXCEPT AS NOTED COUNCll OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS Billions of dollars Total j national income Period J First quarter 1 Second quarter Third quarter Fourth quarter 1954 First quarter Second quarter Third quarter Compensation of em 1 ployees Proprietors income Farm Business and professional Rental income of persons Net interest Seasonally adjusted annual rates Corporate profits and inventory valuation adjustment Total Profits Inventory before valuation taxes adjustment q Includes employer contributions for social insurance See also p 23 Preliminary estimates by Council of Economic Advisers NOTE The national income and expenditure series have been revised by the Department of Commerce For details see Surrey of Current Business July 1954 Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding Source Department of Commerce except as noted 21 CORPORATE PROFITS According to preliminary estimates corporate profits before taxes declined 1 billion seasonally adjusted annual rate between the second and third quarters Since the beginning of the year corporate profits both before and after tcxes have been well below a year ago Abolition of the excess profits tax has contributed to the relatively favorable showing of profits after taxes BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 60 601 ANNUAL TOTALS i NO ALLOWANCE FOR INVENTORY VALUATION ADJUSTMENT PRELIMINARY ESTIMATES BY COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS SOURCE DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE EXCEPT AS NOTED COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS Billions of dollars Corporate profile before taxes Period Corporate tax liability Corporate profits after taxe Total Dividend pavmentp Undistributed profits Seasonally adjusted annual rates 1953 First quarter Second quarter Third quarter Fourth quarter 1954 First quarter Second quarter Third quarter J i Preliminary estimates by Council of Economic Advisers NOTE See p 21 for profits before taxes and inventory x 7 aluation adjustment The national income and expenditure series have been revised by the Department of Commerce For details see Survey of Current Business July 1954 Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding Source Department of Commerce except as noted 22 SOURCES OF PERSONAL INCOME Personal income declined slightly in October Farm income which fluctuates considerably when measured on a monthly basis was responsible for the decline Income derived from nonfarm sources accounting for about 95 percent of total personal income increased somewhat BILLIONS OF DOLLARS SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 300 TOTAL PERSONAL INCOME 250 LABOR INCOME v BUSINESS PROFESSIONAL AND RENTAL INCOME FARM PROPRIETORS INCOME SOURCE DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE Total personal income Period September October November December 1954 January February March April May June July August September October COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS Billions of dollars Less PerLabor income Proprietors income Rental wage and Personal Transfer sonal con Nonagritributions cultural income Divi interest salary disBusiness paydends income ments for social personal of bursements Farm and proinsurincome 2 and other 1 fessional persons ance labor income i Seasonally adjusted annual rates J Compensation of employees see p 21 excluding employer contributions for social insurance 3 Personal income exclusive of net income of unincorporated farm enterprises farm wages agricultural net interest and net dividends paid by agricultural corporations NOTE Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding Includes 2 7 billion National Service Life Insuranct dividend most of which was paid in the first half of the yew Preliminary estimates 90 Source Department of Commerce oO DISPOSITION OF PERSONAL INCOME Disposable personal income rose slightly between the second and third quarters according to current estimates Consumer spending rose 1 7 billion seasonally adjusted annual rate to a record level of 234 8 billion As a result the personal saving rate was reduced slightly to 7 3 percent BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS SOUHCL Plf AfUMf NT OF COUNCIL OF ICONOMIC ADVISERS 1 jCBK I Personal Disposincome Personal able l taxes personal income Period First quarter Second quarter Third quarter Fourth quarter 1954 First quarter Second quarter Third Quarter Kqualn Less Personal consumption expenditures Total Equals Saving as percent of disPersonal posable NonDurable durable Services saving income goods goods Billions of dollars Billions of dollars seasonally adjusted f H d 9 12 fi fi i R annual rates t Includes such items as fines penalties and donations NOTE The national income and expenditure series have been revised by the Department of Commerce For details see Survey of Current Business July 1954 Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding Source Department of Commerce 24 PER CAPITA DISPOSABLE INCOME Per capita disposable income declined very slightly in the third quarter according to current estimates DOLLARS 2 000 DOLLARS 2 000 SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES ANNUAL AVERAGES 1953 PRICES CURRENT PRICES I I I I I i J SEE NOTE 2 ON TABLE BELOW SOURCES DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE AND COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS Total disposable personal Per capita disposable perincome billions of dollars 1 sonal income dollars 1 Period 1953 prices 3 Current prices Current prices prices Population thousands Seasonally adjusted annual rates 1953 First quarter Second quarter Third quarter Fourth quarter 1954 1 First quarter Second quarter Third quarter Income less taies 3 Dollar estimates in current prices divided by consumer price index on base i Includes armed forces overseas AnnaaJ data as of July 1 Quarterly data centered In the middle of the period interpolated from monthly figures NOTE The national income and expenditure series have been revised by the Department of Commerce For details see Survey of Current Business July 1954 Sources Department of Commerce and Council of Economic Advisers 28 FARM INCOME During the first 10 months of 1954 farmers received an average of 2 4 billion per month from cash marketings and Government payments about 4 percent below the same period of 1953 Cash receipts from livestock and products were down 3 percent and crop receipts about 53 percent Parity index prices paid Cash receipts from marketings interest taxes and wage rates Livestock and Crops products Farm income millions of dollars current prices Cash receipts and Government payments Period 1939 monthly average 1944 monthly average 1946 monthly average 1948 monthly average 1949 monthly average 1 950 monthly average 1951 monthly average 1952 monthlv average 1953 monthly average 1953 September October November December 1954 January Februarv March April Mav June July August September 3 October Converted from the reported base to the base Farm income in current dollars divided by parity index on base Preliminary estimates Source Department of Agriculture 1 26 Farm income millions of dollars 1953 prices S CREDIT MONEY AND FEDERAL FINANCE BANK LOANS INVESTMENTS AND RESERVES Total loans of commercial banks rose 600 million in October and appear to have increased further in November Investment holdings of commercial banks rose 3 billion almost entirely in U S Government securities The excess reserve position of member banks was slightly lower in October than in September BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS END OF YEAR END OF MONTH SOURCE BOARD OF GOVERNORS OK THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM COUNCIl OF ECONOMIC ADVl ESS Billions of dollars All commercial banks End of period September October November December 1954 January February March April Mav June July August 3 September 3 October s November s Total loans and investments i 4 1 i Investments Loans Total M I i H r s m I U 8 GovOther ernment securities securities Weekly reporting member banks business loans All member banks 2 BorrowReserve balances ings at Federal Required Excess Reserve Banks Commercial industrial and agricultural loam revised series beginnine January 1952 3 Preliminary estimates 2 Data are averages of daily figures on balances and borrowings during the period Member banks include besides all national banks those State banks that have taken membership in the Federal Reserve System Nor Detail will cot necessarily add to totals because of rounding Source Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System 27 CONSUMER CREDIT Total consumer credit outstanding rose in October for the sevenfh consecutive month due primarily to an increase in charge account credits and to instalment loans on consumer durables other than automobiles BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS SOURCE BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS Millions of dollars Total consumer End of period credit outstanding t September October NovemberDecember 1954 January February M arch Apri May June July August SepU inb T i ctober V S56 28 S7f Instalment credit outstanding Total Automobile paper b Other Repair and consumer moderni Personal loans zation goods loans 8 paper I i N oninstalment credit outstanding Total t Charge accounts i InstalInstalment ment credit ex credit 8 3 repaid tended Ineludes nil consumer credit extended for the purpose of purchasing automobiles and other consumer goods and secured by the items purchased Includes only such loans held by financial institutions those held by retail outlets are included in other consumer goods paper edil extended or repnkl during the period Nuti utu bi piiijimi J a n u a r y iwtt have been revised Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding Houuso Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System 1 BOND YIELDS AND INTEREST RATES The Treasury bill rate was higher in early December than in late November yields were little changed from their October levels Otherwise interest rates and bond PERCEMT PER A N N U M 3 5 PERCENT PER A N N U M S O U R C E B O A R D OF GOVERNORS OF THE Period I October November December 1 954 January February March April May June July August September October November Week ended 1954 November December 4 11 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS F E D E R A L R E S E R V E SYSTEM Percent per annum U S Government security yields High grade 3 month Taxable bonds 2 municipal Treasury bonds 5 Old series s New series 4 bills J S Aaa o S4 or Rate on new issues within period 2 Bonds in this classification were first issued in March 1941 a Beginning April 1952 2Ji pereent bonds first callable after 12 years Prior to that only bonds due or callable after 15 years were included Corporate bonds Moody s Baa percent bonds of issued May 1 1953 Standard and Poor s Weekly data are Wednesday figures Source Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System 8 Prime commercial paper 4 6 months MONEY SUPPLY The privately held money supply increased by 2 3 billion in October mainly due to an increase in demand deposits U S Government deposits increased by 1 4 billion H i l l ION Of JONS OF D O L L A R S Uui t AH TOTAL DEPOSITS AND CURRENCY r TOTAL EXCLUDING U S GOVERNMENT DEPOSITS PRIVATELY HELD MONEY SUPPLY DEMAND DEPOSITS ADJUSTED T I M E DEPOSITS RENCY OUTSIDE BANKS U S GOVERNMENT DEPOSITS END OF Y E A R 1953 END OF MONTH J F M A M J J A S O N D 1954 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS SOURCE BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM Billions of dollars End of period September October November December 1954 January February M arch April Mav June 4 July 4 Auirust September 4 October Total deposits and currency U S Government deposits Total excluding U S Government deposits privately held money supply Currency Demand Time deposits outside Total deposits 3 adjusted 2 banks S S Includes U S Government deposits at Federal Reserve banks and commercial and savings banks and U S Treasurer s time deposits open account Includes demand deposits other than interbank and U S Government less cash items in process of collection Includes deposits in commercial banks mutual savings banks and Postal Savings System but excludes interbank deposits 4 Preliminary estimates Source Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System NOTE Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding FEDERAL BUDGET RECEIPTS AND EXPENDITURES Budget receipts declined seasonally from 5 0 billion in September to 2 6 billion in October Budget expenditures were 4 9 billion in October substantially unchanged from the preceding month The cumulative budget deficit for the first 4 months of fiscal year 1955 was 7 1 billion compared with 6 3 billion at the same time last year BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS TOTAL BUDGET EXPENDITURES NET BUDGET RECEIPTS NATIONAL SECURITY PROGRAMS BUDGET SURPLUS OR DEFICIT MAGNIFIED SCALE FISCAL YEARS ESTIMATED SOURCES TREASURY DEPARTMENT AND BUREAU OF THE BUDGET COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS Billions of dollars Budget expenditures Net budget receipts Period Fiscal Fiscal Fiscal Fiscal Fiscal Fiscal Fiscal Fiscal Fiscal Fiscal 1953 vear 1944 year 1947 vear 1948 year 1949 year 1950 vear 1951 vear 1952 vear 1953 year 1954 year 1955 estimated Julv August September October 1954 February March April Mav June Julv August September October Cumulative totals for first 4 months Fiscal year 1954 Fiscal vear Total National security l Budget surplus or deficit Public debt end of period S S S Revised to include the items classified as national security in The Budget of The United Slates Government for the Fiscal Year Ending June SO 1966 Thcwexpenditure items are Military functions of Defense Department mutual military prop am development and control of atomic energy and allocation of critical nn i strategic materials Includes guaranteed securities except those held by the Treasury Not all of total shown is subject to statutory debt limitation NOTE Beginning with February 1954 the reporting of budget receipts and expenditures is on a basis consistent with that used in preparing budget estinmic The figures shown above for fiscal years 1953 and 1954 are those published by the Treasury Department on the new basis Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding Sources Treasury Department and Bureau of the Budget 31 FEDERAL CASH RECEIPTS FROM AND PAYMENTS TO THE PUBLIC The cash deficit for the quarter ending in September was 4 8 billion reflecting to a considerable degree the seasonally low receipts during the first half of the fiscal year BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 25 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 2S CASH RECEIPTS CASH PAYMENTS u I 2 i I f f EXCESS OF CASH RECEIPTS TIT IT EXCESS OF CASH PAYMENTS CALENDAR YEARS SOURCES BUREAU OF THE BUDGET AND TREASURY DEPARTMENT COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS Millions of dollars Cash receipts from the public Calendar year Calendar year total Quarterly totals not adjusted for seasonal variation 1952 Third quarter Fourth quarter 1953 First quarter Second quarter Third quarter Fourth quarter l First quarter Second quarter Third quarter Cash payments to the public Excess of receipts or payments Preliminary estimates NOTB Detail win Dot necessarily add to totals because of rounding Sources Bureau of the Budget and Treasury Department 32 For sale by the Superintendent of Documents TJ S Government Printing Office Washington 25 D C Price 20 cents per copy 2 00 per year 2 50 foreign

Money Supply

DATE: December 1954

PART OF:

Economic Indicators : December 1954

AUTHOR:

Council of Economic Advisers (U.S.)

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Council of Economic Advisers (U.S.) , United States. Congress. Joint Committee on the Economic Report, 1946-1956 and United States. Congress. Joint Economic Committee, 1956-. "Money Supply," in Council of Economic Advisers (U.S.) , United States. Congress. Joint Committee on the Economic Report, 1946-1956 and United States. Congress. Joint Economic Committee, 1956-. "December 1954," Economic Indicators (December 1954) : 33-33. https://fraser.stlouisfed.org/title/1/item/302/toc/397846 , accessed on December 11, 2019.

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Economic Data