Consumers' Prices

Name: Consumers' Prices
Creator: FRASER
Keywords: Economic Data, Economic indicators, Economic conditions, United States

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The following is plain-text output generated by Optical Character Recognition. 83 d Congress 1st Sesstow Prepared for the Joint Committee on the Economic Report by the Council of Economic Advisers UNITED STATES GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE WASHINGTON JOINT COMMITTEE ON THE ECONOMIC REPORT Created pursuant to Sec 5 a of Public Law 304 79th Cong JESSE P WOLGOTT Michigan Chairman RALPH E FLANDERS Vermont Vice Chairman RICHARD M SIMPSON Pennsylvania HENRY O TALLE Iowa GEORGE H BENDER Ohio EDWARD J HART New Jersey WRIGHT PATMAN Texas RICHARD BOLLING Missouri ARTHUR V WATKINS Utah BARRY GOLDWATER Arizona JOHN J SPARKMAN Alabama PAUL H DOUGLAS Illinois J WILLIAM FULBRIGHT Arkansas GROVER W ENSLEY Staff Director JOHN W LEHMAN Clerk COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS ARTHUR F BURNS Chairman PUBLIC LAW 120 81sT CONGRESS CHAPTER 237 IST SESSION JOINT RESOLUTION S J Res 55 To print the monthly publication entitled Economic Indicators Resolved by the Senate and House of Representatives of the United States of America in Congress assembled That the Joint Committee on the Economic Report be authorized to issue a monthly publication entitled Economic Indicators and that a sufficient quantity be printed to furnish one copy to each Member of Congress the Secretary and the Sergeant at Arms of the Senate the Clerk Sergeant at Arms and Doorkeeper of the House of Representatives two copies to the libraries of the Senate and House and the Congressional Library seven hundred copies to the Joint Committee on the Economic Report and the required number of copies to the Superintendent of Documents for distribution to depository libraries and that the Superintendent of Documents be authorized to have copies printed for sale to the public Approved June Charts drawn by Graphics Unit Office of the Secretary Department of Commerce Contents THE TOTAL OUTPUT OF THE ECONOMY The Nation s Economic Accounts Gross National Product Paw 1 2 PRICES Consumer Prices Wholesale Prices Prices Received and Paid by Farmers Stock Prices EMPLOYMENT AND WAGES Civilian Labor Force Nonagricultural Employment Selected Industries Average Weekly Hours Selected Industries Average Hourly Earnings Selected Industries Average Weekly Earnings Selected Industries PRODUCTION AND BUSINESS ACTIVITY Industrial Production Weekly Production Selected Indicators Production of Selected Manufactures Gross Private Domestic Investment Expenditures for New Plant and Equipment New Construction New Housing Starts Inventories and Sales Merchandise Exports and Imports PURCHASING POWER N a t i o n a l Income orponif c Profits Income Income Spending and Saving IVr i pita Disposable Income f iiin Intofuc MONEY AND FEDERAL FINANCE 4wn and investments Ocd it Vif ltl iuul Interest Rates v Supply Ktiriitl IUiii n Receipts and Expenditures Ai il Receipts From and Payments to the Public THE TOTAL OUTPUT OF THE ECONOMY THE NATION S ECONOMIC ACCOUNTS Economic activity generally continued at a high level in the second quarter as shown by the major national economic accounts BILLIONS OF DOLLARS ANNUAL TOTALS SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES CONSUMERS DISPOSABLE INCOME J l EXPENDITURES I I I I I 1 I I I I I I J I j I j I BUSINESS INVESTMENTEXCESS OF GROSS RETAINED EARNINGS GROSS RETAINED J 1 f EARNINGS GOVERNMENT FEDERAL STATE AND LOCAL EXPENDITURES FOR GOODS AND SERVICES EXCESS OF RECEIPTS RECEIPTS LESS TRANSFER PAYMENTS I I 43 I I I I I 49 I J I JL If INCLUDES NET FOREIGN INVESTMENT IN ADDITION TO GROSS PRIVATE DOMESTIC INVESTMENT iJ INCIUOCS UNDISTRIBUTED CORPORATE PROFITS AND CORPORATE INVENTORY VALUATION ADJUSTMENT AND CAPITAL CONSUMPTION ALLOWANCES 3 PHLLIMINARY ESTIMATES NOlf 1MI SUM OF THE THREE INCOME AND RECEIPT ITEMS SHOWN IN THIS CHART IS NOT EQUAL TO THE SUM OF THE EXPENDITURES OR GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT t CAUSE OF STATISTICAL DISCREPANCIES FOR EXPLANATION AND USE OF THIS ARRANGEMENT SEE SENATE REPORT NO 1295 JOINT ECONOMIC REPORT l l 9P AND THE ANNUAL ECONOMIC REPORT OF THE PRESIDENT JANUARY 1953 APPENDIX A M uf U W PARTMENT OF COMMERCE AND COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISIRS GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT Total output of goods and services rose in the second quarter to an annual rate of 372 billion according to recent revisions Consumer spending increased as did private domestic investment and government expenditures But in the governmental sphere only expenditures for national security programs were at a higher rate BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 400 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS GOVERNMENT PURCHASES OF GOODS AND SERVICES sol I 1941 I I 1943 I I 1945 I I 1947 I I 1949 I I 1951 I SOURCE DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS Billions of dollars Period First quarter Second quarter Third quarter Fourth quarter 1953 First quarter Second quarter Government purchases of goods and services Personal Gross Total Federal conNet private gross sump domestic foreign State Less national tion and Total invest investTotal National Other Govern1 product expend ment ment local ment security itures sales Seasonally adjusted annual rates i Includes expenditures for military services international security and foreign relations except foreign loans development and control of atomic energy promotion of the merchant marine promotion of defense production and economic stabilization and civil defense For further details see Annual Economic Report of the President January 1953 p 165 and Survey of Current Business July 1953 p 10 NOTE The figures beginning with 1950 have been revised For detail see Survey of Current Business July and August 1953 Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding Source Department of Commerce PRICES CONSUMER PRICES Consumer prices rose 0 2 percent in July bringing the total rise since February to 1 1 percent Among the major components rent showed the largest advance in July Apparel and reading and recreation were the only groups to show lower prices for the month INDEX INDEX IOO J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D SOURCE DEPARTMENT OF LABOR COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVtSEiS i All items Period 1939 monthly average 1942 monthly average 1945 monthly average 1946 monthly average 1948 monthly average 1949 monthly average 1950 monthly average June 1951 monthly average 1952 monthly average 1952 June Julv August September October November December 1953 Januarv February March April Mav June Julv Food Housing Total w Apparel Rent Transportation W w w Reading Other Medical Personal goods and and care recreacare services tion W W W tt W W w W The new base is in compliance with recommendations of the U S Bureau of the Budget Beginning with January 1953 the index structure has been changed Not available Source Department of I abor Q PRICES Wholesale prices ended the month of August slightly below the July level in the prices of farm products and foods Industrial prices were stable The downward tendency was evidenced INDEX INDEX SOURCE DEPARTMENT OF LABOR COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS Period 1942 monthly average 1946 monthly average 1947 monthly average 1948 monthly average 1949 monthly average 1950 monthly average June 1951 monthly average 1952 monthly average 1952 July August September October November December 1953 January February March April May June July August Week ended 1953 August 4 11 September 1 1 Not available Other than farm products and foods industrial All commodities Farm products Processed foods Source Department of Labor PRICES RECEIVED AND PAID BY FARMERS Prices received by farmers fell 0 4 percent between July 15 and August 15 primarily as a result of lower prices for cattle hogs and lambs Prices paid by farmers were unchanged from their July 1 5 level with higher prices of family living items being offset by lower costs of farm production items INDEX INDEX J9IO PARITY INDEX PRICES PAID INTEREST TAXES AND WAGE RATES MTY INDEX COUNCIt Of ECONOMIC ADVISERS Prices received by farmers Period 1939 moDthly average monthly average 1944 monthly average 1946 monthly average 1948 monthly average 1949 morithlv average monthly average June 15 1951 monthly average 1952 monthly average him f Jlllv If July 15 August 15 September 15 October 15 November 15 December January 15 February 15 March 15 April 15 May Parity index prices paid interest taxes Parity ratio and wage rates A u g u s t 15 n t i o of index of prices received by farmers to parity index rlmli wartime subsidy payments paid on beef cattle sheep lambs milk and butterfat between October 1943 and June 1946 tm h purlmwit of Agriculture STOCK PRICES Pi ices of all major stock groups dropped during August with the sharpest declines occurring during the last week of the month INDEX J F M A M J J J A S 0 N D F M A M J J A S O N D 1953 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS Period Weekly average June August September October November December 1953 January February March April May June July August Week ended 1953 August September 4 2 Composite index Manufacturing Total Durable goods Nondurable goods Transportation Utilities Trade finance and service Mining Includes 265 common stocks distributed as follows 14 for mining 98 for durable goods manufacturing 72 for nondurable goods manufacturing 21 for transportation 28 for utilities and 32 for trade finance and service Indexes are for weekly closing prices 2 Data became available after chart was prepared Source Securities and Exchange Commission EMPLOYMENT AND WAGES CIVILIAN LABOR FORCE In August there was again little change in the civilian labor force Total employment reached a record high of 63 4 million which was not significantly greater than in July but nearly 1 million more than a year earlier The pickup in nonagricultural employment and the offsetting drop in agricultural employment were usual for this time of year Unemployment dropped to a post World War II low of 1 2 million or 1 9 percent of the civilian labor force MILLIONS OF PERSONS MILLIONS OF PERSONS 70 UNEMPLOYMENT TOTAL CIVILIAN LABOR FORCE NONAGRTCULTUR AL EftiTpLOYME NT I I MPLOYMENT AS PERCENT OF CIVILIAN LABOR FORCE NI nt il l 1939 w m xi W in J 4J R SS fe BS 54 fe S iS iilllW te YEARS OF AGE AND OVER SOURCE DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS Total labor force including armed forces Period moDthly average mootlily average monthly average monthly average monthly average monthly average June 1951 monthly average 1952 m o n t h l y average 1952 July Atu ii st Srptn n her Viol T N o v nlxT 1 i M l l lbl i HIM n rv 1 Vhri arv M u r c l i Aj ril M n v Juiir Jil ii ir i Civilian labor force Employment UnemTotal ployAgricul NonagriTotal ment tural cultural Thousands of persons 14 years of age and over F Unemployment as percent of total civilian labor force C u i t inn workers and those who had jobs but were not at work for such reasons as vacation illness bad weather temporary lay off NOTE Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding Source Department of Commerce NONAGRICULTURAL EMPLOYMENT SELECTED INDUSTRIES Seasonal factors accounted for a slight decline in July employment in manufacturing industries and trade However both were well above a year earlier Government employment continued to drop Contract construction employment experienced one of the largest July increases in recent years MILLIONS OF WAGE AND SALARY WORKERS MILLIONS OF WAGE AND SALARY WORKERS DURABLE MANUFACTURING I I J F I M I A I M I NONDURABLE MANUFACTURING 1 I J J A S O N D J CONTRACT CONSTRUCTION F M A M J J A S O N D WHOLESALE AND RETAIL TRADE COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS Thousands of wage and salary workers Manufacturing Period Total 1939 monthly average 1943 monthly average 1948 monthly average 1949 monthly average 1950 monthly average June 1951 monthly average 1952 monthly average 1952 July August September October November December 1953 January February March April 2 May June22 Julv Durable Nondugoods rable goods Contract Wholesale Finance construc and retail service etc trade tion Government Federal State local i i i Transportation and public utilities Mining Revised series see Employment and Payrolls April 1963 Includes all full and part time wage and salary workers in nona grieultural establishments who worked during or received pay for any part of the pay period ending nearest the 15th of the month Excludes proprietors self employed persons domestic servants and personnel of the armed forces Total derived from this table not comparable with estimates of nonagricultural employment of the civilian labor force reported by the Department of Commerce p 7 which include proprietors self employed persons and domestic servants which count persons as employed when they are not at work because of industrial disputes and which are based on an enumeration of population whereas the estimates in tb s table are based on reports from employing establishments 2 Preliminary estimates Source Department of Labor 8 AVERAGE WEEKLY HOURS SELECTED INDUSTRIES Although there was the usual small seasonal decline in the average workweek for manufacturing industries in July many employers continued to report overtime work The average workweek of 40 4 hours in July was about equal to the post World War I peak for the month reached in 1950 HOURS PER WEEK HOURS PER WEEK NONDURABLE MANUFACTURING DURABLE MANUFACTURING J 1 111 I Mil I I I i i I I i 1 I I RETAIL TRADE BUILDING CONSTRUCTION V Vr7 1 M i 1 L J uJ COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS Hours per week for production workers or nonsupervisory employees Manufacturing Period 1939 monthly average monthly average monthly average 1 947 monthly average 1948 monthly average 1949 monthly average 1950 monthly average June 1951 monthly average 1952 monthly average 1952 Jure July August September October November December Januarv Febr u ary March April 3 May June 3 July Total Durable goods Nondurable goods Revised series see Employments and Payrolls April 1953 Preliminary estimates 4 Data beginning with January 1948 are not strictly comparable witb those for earlier periods Not available Building construction Retail trade 4 Source Department of Labor AVERAGE HOURLY EARNIMGS SELECTED INDUSTRIES he July increase of 1 cent in average hourly earnings in manufacturing industries to 1 77 brought the total gain since uly 1952 to 1 3 cents or 8 percent Most of this rise occurred during the second half of last year The gain frorr anuary to July of this year was 3 cents reflecting small but widespread wage rate increases DOLL iRS PER HOUR DOLL ftRS PER HOUR BUILDING CONSTRUCTION DURABLE MANUFACTURING 1 90 r a PRICES f PRICES x Nfl I J J x CURRENT PRICES CURRENT PRICES S T I T F t H i I J fTi i ifi ifi ifi i iTI 1950 I i 1953 i RETAIL TRADE NONDURABLE MANUFACTURING PRICES PRICES1 f CURRENT PRICES i 1 10 I I 1 1 1 1 I 1 iTl I 1950 pHZtf ty r CURRENT PRICE s P i l I i l l i 1 t i i i iT l i i M 1 t i i i i IT iti 1 1 M h 1 1 nfi 1 1 1 il 1 1 1 1 ifi 1 1 ii 1 1 i iTl 1950 I EARNINGS IN CURRENT PRICES DIVIDED BY CONSUMER PRICE WDEX ON BASE If COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS For production workers or nonsupervisory employees l All manufacturing Period Current prices monthly average 1943 monthly average monthly average monthly average 1948 monthly average monthly average monthly average 1 46 June monthly average monthly average June 1 65 July 1 64 August 1 66 September 1 69 October 1 70 November 1 71 December January 1 74 February 1 74 March1 75 April 4 1 75 May 4 1 76 June July prices Revised series see Employment and Payrolls April 1953 3 Earnings in current prices divided by consumer price index 1 Building Durable goods Nondurable goods Retail trade construction manufacturing manufacturing 1952 Current 1952 Current 1952 Current 1952 Current prices 2 prices 2 prices prices prices 2 prices prices 2 prices on base Data beginning with January 1948 are not strictly comparable with those for earlier periods 10 Preliminary estimates 8 Not available Source Department of Labor AVERAGE WEEKLY EARNINGS SELECTED INDUSTRIES Despite a slight drop in average weekly earnings in manufacturing industries to 71 51 in July primarily because of a shorter workweek earnings were at a new peak for the month Since July 1952 they have increased 6 07 or 9 percent DOLLARS PER WEEK DOLLARS PER WEEK DURABLE MANUFACTURING BUILDING CONSTRUCTION 1 I l l I 1 I I I I I t I 1 I n I t I i I I I 1 I I I NONDURABLE MANUFACTURING RETAIL TRADE CURRENT PRICES i I I I I I I I I I1 I l i t II 1 I I I I I I I 1953 EARNINGS IN CURRENT PRICES DIVIDED BY CONSUMER PRICE INDEX ON BASE COUNCIL OF FCONOMIC ADVISERS SOURCE DEPARTMENT OF LABOR For production workers or nonsupervisory employees l All manufacturing Period 1939 monthly average1943 monthly average 1946 monthly average 1947 monthly average 1948 monthlv average 1949 monthly average monthly average June 1951 monthlv average 1952 monthly average 1952 June July August September October November December 1953 January February March April 4 M ay 4 June 4 Julv Durable goods manufacturing Nondurable goods manufacturing Retail trade Current prices 1952 prices 2 Current prices 1952 prices 2 Current prices 1952 prices 2 Current prices 1952 prices 2 1952 Current prices prices C C C Revised scries see Employment and Payrolls April 1953 a Earnings In current prices divided by consumer price index on base a Pata beginning with January 1948 are not strictly comparable with those for earlier periods Building construction Preliminary estimates Not available Source Department of Labor PRODUCTION AND BUSINESS ACTIVITY INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION The index of total industrial production in August recovered most of the reduction which was registered in July according to preliminary estimates The recovery was especially notable in the output of nondurable goods and of minerals INDEX NDEX J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D PRELIMINARY ESTIMATES COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS seasonally adjusted Period 1943 monthly average 1946 monthly average 1947 monthly average 1948 monthly average 1949 monthly average 1950 monthly average June 1951 monthly average 1952 monthly average 1952 July August September October November December January February March April Mav June Julv 1 J August Preliminary estimates Total industrial production JManufacture s Total Durable goods Nondurable goods Minerals Source Board of Governor of tbe Federal Reserve System WEEKLY PRODUCTION SELECTED INDICATORS The steel industry operating at close to 95 percent of capacity during most of August turned out about 2 percent more steel than in July Auto assemblies were slowed somewhat because of model changeovers inventory taking and a transmission plant fire Hot weather boosted electric power generation to a new high MILLIONS OF TONS MILLIONS OF SHORT TONS DAILY AVERAGE J J F M A M J J SOURCES AMERICAN IRON AND STEEL INSTITUTE DEPARTMENT OF THE INTERIOR EDISON ELECTRIC INSTITUTE AND WARD S AUTOMOTIVE REPORTS St sel Period Weekly average 1950 June July August September October November December Thousands of net tons S O N D COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS Electric power Bituminous i by utilities coal thousands of millions of kilowatt hours short tons 2 Cars and trucks number Week ended 1953 August January February March April May June July 3 August September 5 Percent of theoretical capacity A Percent of capacity based on weekly net ton capacity of for the first half of beginning July beginning January beginning January and beginning January s Daily average for week Preliminary estimates Bonroes American Iron and Steel Institute Edison Electric Institute Department of the Interior and Ward s Automotive Reports 1O 38134 ur 23 U UT tiu Output of all major durable manufacturing industries except transportation equipment was curtailed in July because of plant wide vacations Among the nondurable goods industries petroleum and coal products and chemicals were the only ones with increased production X ADJUSTED FOR SEASONAL VARIATION INDEX ADJUSTED FOR SEASONAL VARIATION COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISEES SOURCE BOARD OF 60VERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM seasonally adjusted Nondurable manufactures Durable manufactures Period Iron and steel 1943 monthly average monthly average 1947 monthly average monthly a e a e vrg monthly average 1950 monthly average June 1951 monthly average 1952 monthly average June July August September October November December January February March April Mav June Julv 1 Preliminary estimates 14 Nonferrous Textiles Lumber Machinery metals and and and products products products Petroleum Manufac Chemical and coal tured food products products products Source Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System rKiVATJti UUJyiJUSTlU lMVt TJMULMT Gross private domestic investment rose 7 billion seasonally adjusted annual rate in the second quarter according to revised estimates There was a sharp upturn in the rate of inventory accumulation and a small increase of investment in producers durable equipment and in nonresidential construction BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 70 70 ANNUAL TOTALS SOURCE DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE COUNCil OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS Billions of dollars Total gross private domestic investment Period New construction Residential nonfarm Total Other Producers durable equipment Change in business inventories Seasonally adjusted annual rates 1952 First quarter Second quarter Third quarter Fourth quarter 1953 First quarter Second quarter NOTE The figures beginning with 1950 have been revised For detail see Survey of Current Business July and August 1953 Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding Source Department of Commerce 15 EXPENDITURES FOR NEW PLANT AND EQUIPMENT Business plans indicate that a new high of 28 4 billion seasonally adjusted annual rate will be reached in new plant and equipment expenditures for the third quarter according to an August survey Scheduled outlays at the annual rate of 27 1 billion in the fourth quarter will bring the 1953 total to a record 27 8 or 5 percent more than in 1952 Railroads are the only major group reporting a decline for the year BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS SEE NOTE 4 ON TABLE BELOW SOURCES SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE COMMISSION AND DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS Billions of dollars Transportation Mining Durable NonduraRailroads Other goods ble goods M anuf aeturing Period L L Total a Total Public Commerutilities cial and other Seasonally adjusted annual rates 1952 First quarter Second quarter Third quarter Fourth quarter 1 953 First quarter Second quarter Third quarter 4 4 Fourth quarter C i Excludes agriculture Commercial and other includes trade service finance communications and construction Not available Estimates for third and fourth quarters based on anticipated capital expenditures reported by business in August 1953 NOTE These figures do not agree with the totals included in the gross national product estimates of the Department of Commerce principally because the latter cover agricultural investment and also certain equipment and construction outlays charged to current expense Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding Sources Securities and Eichange Commission and Department of Commerce 16 NEW CONSTRUCTION Expenditures for both private and public new construction seasonally adjusted dropped in August Within the private field residential construction was down markedly while nonresidential construction was up Despite the August drop total expenditures for the first 8 months of this year were 8 percent above those for the corresponding period last year BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS I ADJUSTED FOR SEASONAL VARIATION PRIVATE RESIDENTIAL CNONFARM FEDERAL STATE AND LOCAL I I I 1 I I I I J I I I I J COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS SOURCES DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE fiND DEPARTMENT OF LABOR iMillions of dollars seasonally adjusted Total new construction l Period 1939 monthly average 1942 monthly average 1944 monthly average 1946 monthly average 1943 monthly average 1949 monthly average 1950 monthly average June 1951 monthlv average 1952 monthly average 1952 July August September October November December January February March April May June July 3 August i Revised series beginning with 1950 Includes public residential construction 3 Preliminary estimates Private construction Total Residential Other nonfarm private Federal State and local Sources Department of Commerce and Department of Labor 17 NEW HOUSING New nonfarm housing units started in July totaled 96 000 or 7 percent less than in June Of these 95 600 were private 5 500 less than in July 1952 but more than in any other July except the record high of 1950 Total private starts for the first 7 months of this year were slightly more than for the same period of 1952 although seasonally adjusted the number has been declining since February THOUSANDS OF UNITS THOUSANDS OF UNITS SOURCE DEPARTMENT OF LABOR COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS All new nonfarm housing units started Period Total Annu al totals Mont hly average June July August September October November December 1953 January February March April l May June July J i Preliminary estimates Source Department of Labor 18 Public Private Seasonally adjusted annual rates private INVENTORIES AND SALES Total business inventories seasonally adjusted continued to increase in July with the sreatest sain being at the retail level Total sales also rose after falling for the two previous months BILL IONS 75 BIL JONS OF DOLLARS OF DOLLARS TOTAL AND MANUFACTURING SEASONALLY ADJU 5TED RETAIL SEASONALLY ADJlJSTED M INVENTORIE TOTAL N ENTOR1ES SALES it m TOTAL SALE M 130 i 25 J20 N y MANUFAGTUR N6 SALES i i I i i i ii t 1 1 Mi I II I I M J V 1 s 90 I 1 M 1 1 1 1 I I J Total business l InvenSales tories 3 Retail InvenSales tories June June Julv August September October November December 1953 January February March April May June 6 Julv August v V AA WV SALES 1 1 M 1 I 1 1 1 1I S II II I I 1 1 1 II I M IJ COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVTS1RS Manufacturing Inventories Sales Millions of dollars seasonally adjusted INVENTORIES SOURCES DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE AND BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM Period I 1 11 i 1 I 1 1 11 SEASONALLY ADJUSTED f DEPARTMENT STORES 140 MANUFACTUf IN6 INVENTORI ES r i i i i i 1951 INDE X s 100 w A X i i l l l 1 1 1 Ill Department stores New Inven Sales orders1 tories 4 Index seasonally adjusted Al o includes wholesale not Book value end of period 3 shown separately in this table s Revised series beginning with 1951 not comparable with previous data See Survey of Current Business September and November 1952 for detail 6 Monthly average for year and total for month Preliminary estimates Book value end of period except annual data which are monthly averages Source Department of Commerce and Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System 19 MERCHANDISE EXPORTS AND IMPORTS Although exports declined in June the total for the first 6 months of this year was slightly above the corresponding period of 1952 due to stepped up aid shipments Excluding these shipments commercial exports were 16 percent lower Imports rose in June bringing the first half year total to a level about4 percent above the comparable 1952 total MILLIONS OF DOLLARS 1 600 MERCHANDISE EXPORTS EXCLUDING GRANT AID SHIPMENTS J SEE FOOTNOTES 1 AND 2 ON TABLE SELOW COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS SOURCES DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE AND DEPARTMENT OF DEFENSE Millions of dollars Merchandise exports Period monthly average 1946 monthly average 1947 monthly average 1948 monthlv average 1949 monthly average 1950 monthly average June monthly average 1952 monthlv average 1952 June July August September October November December 1953 January February March April May June Total Grant aid shipments l Excluding grant aid shipments Merchandise imports i Department of Defense shipments of grant aid military equipment and supplies under the Mutual Security Program Shipments began in July 1950 For the year 1950 total grant aid shipments amounted to 282 million dollars NOTE Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding Sources Department of Commerce and Department of Defense 20 Excess of e xports or impo rts Total f Excluding grant aid shipments PURCHASING POWER NATIONAL INCOME National income seasonally adjusted increased in the second quarter with all major components except proprietors and rental income participating in the rise The largest gain was in compensation of employees in private industries reflecting both higher employment and increased wage rates BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 350 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 350 SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES TOTAL NATIONAL INCOME 300 JiBfeVALUATION ADJUSTMENTl l l l pp PRELIMINARY ESTIMATES BY COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS SOURCE DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE EXCEPT AS NOTED COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS Billions of dollars Total national income Period Compensation of employees Proprietors business professional Net interest farm and rental income I Corporate profits and inventory valuation adjustment Total Profits before taxes Inventory valuation adjustment Seasonally adjusted annual rates 1952 First quarter Second quarter Third quarter Fourth quarter 1953 First quarter Second quarter i i Preliminary estimates by Council of Economic Advisers NOTE The figures beginning with 1950 have been revised For detail see Survey of Current Business July and August 1953 Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding Source Department of Commerce except as noted CORPORATE PROFITS Corporate profits both before and after taxes during the first half of this year are estimated to have been distinctly higher than in the first half of 1952 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 60 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS Period Corporate profits before taxes Corporate tax liability Oorpwnl 1 profits after taxes Total Dividend payments Undistributed profits First quarter Second quarter Third quarter Fourth quarter First quarter Second quarter Seasonally adjusted annual rates 1 Preliminary estimates by Council of Economic Advisers NOTE See p 21 for profits before taxes and inventory valuation adjustment Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding The figures beginning with 1950 have been revised For detail see Survey of Current Business July and August 1953 Source Department of Commerce except as noted 22 PERSONAL INCOME Personal income rose at an annual rate of nearly 2 billion in July to a total of 288 billion Salaries and wages particularly industrial payrolls of nondurable goods manufacturers accounted for the major part of the gain Most other types of income edged up slightly BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 300 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS ISO SOURCE DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE Period June 1952 July August September October November December 1953 January February March April j May June 3 July COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS Total personal income Billions of dollars Proprietors income Labor income salaries Dividends Business wages and professional and personal Farm other labor interest and rental income 1 income Seasonally adjusted annual rates Transfer payments Excludes social insurance contributions of employees and beginning January 1952 of self em ployed persons Include 2 7 billion National Service Life Insurance dividend most of which was paid in the first half of the year 3 Preliminary estimates NOTE The figures beginning with 1950 have been revised For detail see Survey of Current Business July and August 1953 Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding Source Department of Commerce CONSUMER INCOME SPENDING AND SAVING Consumer spending rose more than disposable income in the second quarter slightly and was about 7 percent of disposable income As a result personal saving dropped BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 300 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS IS PERSONAL INCOME LESS TAXES SOURCE DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS Disposable personal income 1 Period Less Personal consumption expenditures Total Durable goods Nondurable goods Services Equals Personal net saving Net saving as percent of disposable income Billions of dollars Seasonally adjusted annual rates 1952 First quarter Second quarter Third quarter Fourth quarter 1953 First quarter Second quarter income loss taxes NOT The figures bepinninp with 950 have been revised For detail see Survey of Current Business July and August etnil will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding t nrre Department of ouniierce 24 PER CAPITA DISPOSABLE INCOME in the second quarter per capita disposable income increased to a new record high changes it was the same as in the preceding quarter DOLLARS 2 000 But when adjusted for price OOLLA RS 2 OOO SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES ANNUAL AVERAGES 1952 PRICES CURRENT PRICES I I I I NOTE 2 ON TABLE BELOW SOURCES DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE AND COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS Total disposable personal Per capita disposable perincome billions of dollars 1 sonal income dollars 1 Period 1952 prices 3 Current prices Current prices prices Population thousands Seasonally adjusted annual rates 1952 First quarter Second quarter Third quarter Fourth quarter 1953 First quarter Second quarter S Income less taxes Dollar estimates in current prices divided by an over all implicit price index for personal consumption expenditures This price index is based on Department of Commerce data shifted from a 1939 base 1 Including armed forces overseas Annual data as of July 1 Quarterly data centered in the middle of the period interpolated from monthly figures NOTE The income figures beginning with 1950 have been revised For detail see Survey of Current Business July and August 1953 Sources Department of Commerce and Council of Economic Advisers 25 FARM INCOME Farm income rose 1 5 percent in July reflecting the seasonal increase in marketings For the First 7 months of this year farmers have received 15 billion from marketings or about 6 percent less than in the corresponding period of 1952 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS FARM INCOME IN CURRENT PRICES DIVIDED BY PARITY INDEX ON BASE NOTE FARM INCOME INCLUDES CASH RECEIPTS FROM MARKETINGS AND GOVERNMENT SOURCE DEPARTMENT Of AflRlCULTURE Period 1939 monthly average 1941 monthly average 1944 monthly average 1946 monthly average 1948 monthly average 1949 monthly average 1950 monthly average June 1951 monthly average 1952 monthly average 1952 June July August September October November December 1953 January February March April May June 8 Julys PAYMENTS COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS Parity index Farm income Farm income prices paid millions of interest taxes millions of current and wage rates 1952 dollars dollars i Converted from the reported base to the base Farm income in current dollars divided by parity index on base Preliminary estimates NOTE Farm income includes cash receipts from marketings and Government payments Source Department of Agriculture CREDIT MONEY AND FEDERAL FINANCE BANK LOANS AND INVESTMENTS The sharp rise in bank loans and investments in July was largely due to increased bank holdings of Government securities BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 175 ITi v m INVESTMENT IN S OTHER SECURITIES SS il i igiS END OF MONTH END OF YEAR COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS SOURCE BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM Billions of dollars All commercial banks June June July August September October November December 1953 January February March April May June 2 July 2 August Investments Total loans and investments End of period Bank loans Total i Commercial industrial and agricultural loans revised series beginning January 1982 NOTK Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding u s Government securities Other securities Weekly reporting member banks business loans a Preliminary estimates Source Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System 27 CONSUMER CREDIT Consumer credit outstanding at the end of July totaled 27 2 billion 166 million more than a month earlier and 4 5 billion above a year ago The July increase resulted from higher instalment credit particularly for automobiles Noninstalment credit outstanding declined BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 30 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 30 I945 1950 END OF YEAR END OF MONTH COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS Total consumer credit outstanding End of period June June July August September October November December 1953 January February March April May June 4 July Millions of dollars Instalment credit Total Automobile paper l Other Repair and consumer moderni Personal zation goods loans paper 1 loans Noninstalment credit Total Charge accounts Includes all consumer credit extended for the purpose of purchasing automobiles and other consumer poods and secured by the items purchased Includes only such loans held by financial institutions those held by retail outlets are included in other consumer goods paper Single payment loans and service credit Preliminary estimates NOTE Revised series see Federal Reserve Bulletin April 1953 Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding Source Board of Governors of the Federal Keserve System J 28 Other BOND YIELDS AND INTEREST RATES Yields on 3 month Treasury bills have dropped each week since the first of August with the largest drops occurring during the last of August and the first of September On a monthly average basis they have decreased for two consecutive months Yields on long term Government bonds have been fairly stable at a rate just above the July average PERCENT PER ANNUM PERCENT PER ANNUM S CORPORATE Ada BONDS MOODY S 1953 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS SOURCE BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM Percent per armuml U S Government security yields Period Average June August September October November December 1 953 January February March April May June July August Week ended 1953 August September month Treasury bills J Rate on new issues within period 15 years and over prior to April years and over beginning in April Taxable bonds J a a j a a oo t 01 2 u 8 2H a 01 a oo Oil J 2 3J 2 31 i 12 a oo a Prime commercial paper 4 6 months Corporate Aaa bonds Moody s H r l V r I 7 a f 2JJ H ml l Hit t i iftt i it t f Bullion iioiuil i Oti t i il t t f 29 MONEY SUPPLY The privately held money supply increased moderately in July because of small rises in currency holdings and demand deposits and a continued increase in time deposits BILLION S OF DOLLARS 225 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 225 TOTAL EXCLUDING U S GOVERNMENT DEPOSITS PRIVATELY H ELD MONEY SUPPLY 1952 END OF MONTH SOURCE BOARD OF G O V E R N O R S OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM Total deposits and currency End of period June June July August September October November December 1953 January February March ApriL May June 4 July COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS Billions of dollars Total excluding U S Government deposits U S privately held money supply Government Demand Currency l Time deposits deposits Total outside deposits adjusted 2 banks Includes TJ 8 Government deposits at Federal Reserve banks and commercial and savings banks and U 8 Treasurer s time deposits open account 1 Includes demand deposits other than interbank and U B Government less cash items in process of collection 1 Includes deposits in commercial banks mutual savings banks and Postal Savings System but excludes interbank deposits Preliminary estimates NOTE Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding Source Hoard of Governors of the Federal Reserve System FEDERAL BUDGET RECEIPTS AND EXPENDITURES Total budget expenditures were slightly lower in August than in July although there was a sizable drop in spending for major national security programs Budget receipts increased but were less than expenditures and the cumulative deficit was 4 2 billion at the end of the month The public debt rose to 273 3 billion during the month BILLJONS OF DOLLARS 75 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS TOTAL BUDGET EXPENDITURES 75 NET BUDGET RECEIPTS 50 o FISCAL YEAR 1953 X V FISCAL YEAR x C F J952 FISCAL YEAR OK FISCAL YEAR 0 i i J i 75 i n J FISCAL YEAR A S O i N D i J i F i M i A i M 0 r J J no MAJOR NATIONAL SECURITY PROGRAMS i A S i O i N i D i J i F i M i A i M J BUDGET SURPLUS OR DEFICIT MAGNIFIED SCALE FISCAL YEAR FISCAL YEAR FISCAL YEAR C 1954 f f J A 1 S 1 O N FISCAL YEAR 1952 1 D 1 J n FISCAL YEAR F 1 M FISCAL YEAR l953 jrVi A 1 1 M 10 J I I J A S i i O i N v J O J F M i V A i FISCAL YEARS CUMULATIVE TOTALS SOURCES TREASURY DEPARTMENT AND BUREAU OF THE BUDGET COUNCH OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS Billions of dollars Budget expenditures Period Fiscal year 1944 Fiscal year 1947 Fiscal year 1948 Fiscal 3rear 1949 Fiscal year 1950 Fiscal year 1951 Fiscal year 1952 Fiscal year August September October November December 1953 January February Mareh April May June July August Total CumulaTotal for tive fiscal period year totals Net budget receipts Budget surplus or deficit Public Major national debt Cumulasecurity programs l CumulaTotal for tive fiscal Total for tive fiscal end of2 Cumulaperiod Total for tive fiscal period year totals period year totals period year totals s eipeuditures iur military services mteraatiopaJ security and foreign reiations development and control of atomic energy promotion oi the merchant morlne promotion of defense production and economic stabilization and civil defense 1 Includes guaranteed securities eicept those held by the Treasury Preliminary estimates Data for fiscal year not strictly comparable with monthly figures NOTB Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding Sources Treasury Department and Bureau of the Budget 31 FEDERAL CASH RECEIPTS FROM AND PAYMENTS TO THE PUBLIC The 2 4 billion excess of cash payments over receipts in the second quarter the closing quarter of the fiscal year 1953 brought the total cash deficit for the fiscal year to 5 3 billion BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS m t IO m p i 3 J f x fpcc Ap f A H DAYMFNT I mzq I CALENDAR YEARS SOURCES BUREAU OF THE BUDGET AND TREASURY DEPARTMENT COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS Millions of dollars Federal cash receipts from the public Calendar year Calendar year total Quarterly totals not adjusted for seasonal variation 1951 Third quarter Fourth quarter 1952 First quarter Second quarter Third quarter Fourth quarter 1953 First quarter Second quarter Federal cash payments to the public Excess of receipts f or payments NOTE Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding Sources Bureau of the Budget and Treasury Department For sale by the Superintendent of Documents U S Government Printing Officer VVuBliingtoD 25 D C Price 20 cents per copy 2 00 per year 2 50 foreign 32

Consumers' Prices

DATE: September 1953

PART OF:

Economic Indicators : September 1953

AUTHOR:

Council of Economic Advisers (U.S.)

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Council of Economic Advisers (U.S.) , United States. Congress. Joint Committee on the Economic Report, 1946-1956 and United States. Congress. Joint Economic Committee, 1956-. "Consumers' Prices," in Council of Economic Advisers (U.S.) , United States. Congress. Joint Committee on the Economic Report, 1946-1956 and United States. Congress. Joint Economic Committee, 1956-. "September 1953," Economic Indicators (September 1953) : 6-6. https://fraser.stlouisfed.org/title/1/item/287/toc/138665 , accessed on December 6, 2019.

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Economic Data