Industrial Production

Name: Industrial Production
Creator: FRASER
Keywords: Economic Data, Economic indicators, Economic conditions, United States

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The following is plain-text output generated by Optical Character Recognition. 83d Congress 1st Session i6 JMfc Economic Indicators JUNE 1953 Prepared for the Joint Committee on the Economic Report by the Office of the Economic Adviser to the President UNITED STATES GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE WASHINGTON JOINT COMMITTEE ON THE ECONOMIC REPORT Created pursuant to Sec 5 a of Public Law 304 79th Gong JESSE P WOLCOTT Michigan Chairman RALPH E FLANDERS Vermont Vice Chairman RICHARD M SIMPSON Pennsylvania HENRY O TALLE Iowa GEORGE H BENDER Ohio EDWARD J HART New Jersey WRIGHT PATMAN Texas RICHARD BOLLING Missouri ROBERT A TAFT Ohio ARTHUR V WATKINS Utah BARRY GOLDWATER Arizona JOHN J SPARKMAN Alabama PAUL H DOUGLAS Illinois J WILLIAM FULBRIGHT Arkansas GROVER W ENSI EY Staff Director JOHN W LEHMAN Clerk OFFICE OF THE ECONOMIC ADVISER TO THE PRESIDENT ARTHUR F BURNS Economic Adviser PUBLIC LAW 120 81sx CONGRESS CHAPTER 237 IST SESSION JOINT RESOLUTION S I Res 55 To print the monthly publication entitled Economic Indicators Resolved by the Senate and House of Representatives of the United States of America in Congress assembled That the Joint Committee on the Economic Report be authorized to issue a monthly publication entitled Economic Indicators and that a sufficient quantity be printed to furnish one copy to each Member of Congress the Secretary and the Sergeant at Arms of the Senate the Clerk Sergeant at Arms and Doorkeeper of the House of Representatives two copies to the libraries of the Senate and House and the Congressional Library seven hundred copies to the Joint Committee on the Economic Report and the required number of copies to the Superintendent of Documents for distribution to depository libraries and that the Superintendent of Documents be authorized to have copies printed for sale to the public Approved June Charts drawn by Graphics Unit Office of the Secretary Department of Commerce 11 Contents THE TOTAL OUTPUT OF THE ECONOMY The Nation s Economic Accounts Gross National Product Page 1 2 PRICES Consumer Prices Wholesale Prices Prices Received and Paid by Farmers Stock Prices EMPLOYMENT AND WAGES Civilian Labor Force Nonagricultural Employment Selected Industries Average Weekly Hours Selected Industries Average Hourly Earnings Selected Industries Average Weekly Earnings Selected Industries PRODUCTION AND BUSINESS ACTIVITY Industrial Production Weekly Production Selected Indicators Production of Selected Manufactures Gross Private Domestic Investment Expenditures for New Plant and Equipment New Construction New Housing Starts Inventories and Sales Merchandise Exports and Imports PURCHASING POWER National Income Corporate Profits Personal Income Consumer Income Spending and Saving Per Capita Disposable Income Farm Income CREDIT MONEY AND FEDERAL FINANCE Bank Loans and Investments Consumer Credit Bond Yields and Interest Rates Money Supply Federal Budget Receipts and Expenditures Federal Cash Receipts From and Payments to the Public THE TOTAL OUTPUT OF THE ECONOMY THE NATION S ECONOMIC ACCOUNTS On the basis of the national income and product accounts the excess of business investment over gross retained earnings declined from the fourth quarter of 1952 to the first quarter of 1953 There was little change in the excess of government expenditures over receipts Personal saving dropped somewhat BILLIONS OF DOLLARS ANNUAL TOTALS SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES CONSUMERS DISPOSABLE INCOME S O I I 1 I I I EXPENDITURES I t I I I I BUSINESS INVESTMENT EXCESS OF GROSS RETAINED EARNINGS GROSS RETAINED EARNINGS I I I I GOVERNMENT FEDERAL STATE AND LOCAL EXPENDITURES FOR GOODS AND SERVICES EXCESS OF RECEIPTS b INCLUDES NET FOREIGN INVESTMENT IN ADDITION TO GROSS PRIVATE DOMESTIC INVESTMENT INCLUDES UNDISTRIBUTED CORPORATE PROFITS AND CORPORATE INVENTORY VALUATION ADJUSTMENT AND CAPITAL CONSUMPTION ALLOWANCES NOTE THE SUM OF THE THREE INCOME AND RECEIPT ITEMS SHOWN IN THIS CHART IS NOT EQUAL TO THE SUM OF THE EXPENDITURES OR GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT BECAUSE OF STATISTICAL DISCREPANCIES FOR EXPLANATION AND USE OF THIS ARRANGEMENT SEE SENATE REPORT NO 1295 JOINT ECONOMIC REPORT PP AND THE ANNUAL ECONOMIC REPORT OF THE PRESIDENT JANUARY 1953 APPENDIX A SOURCE DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE OfFlCt Of M ECONOMIC ADviMR 10 IHl GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT X T LVVSItaJtkJ A flfc V JUI A AXVXJ VSXS Gross national product measured at market values was 361 billion annual rate in the first quarter 2 billion higher than in the fourth quarter of 1952 Consumer and government expenditures continued to increase while both domestic and foreiqn investment drooped BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS ANNUAL TOTALS SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES5 v MESTIC INVESTMENT GOVERNMENT PURCHASES OF GOODS AND SERVICES FOREIGN I I 1940 I I 42 I 44 I I 46 I I 48 I I 5O I I I SOURCE DEPARTMENT orcOMMERCE i j e I OFFICE OF THE ECONOMIC ADVISER TO THE PRESIDENT Billions of dollars Government purchases of goods and ser ic3S Personal Gross Federal Total conNet private foreign sump domestic gross Less State Period national tion investand Total Total Nationall Other Govern local product expend investment ment security ment itures sales Seasonally adjusted annual rates Third quarter Fourth quarter First quarter Second quarter Third quarter Fourth quarter First quarter Includes expenditures for military services international security and foreign relations except foreign loans atomic energy merchant marine promotion of defense production and economic stabilization and ciyil defense For further details see Annual Economic Report of the President January 1953 p 165 and Survey of Current Business July 1952 p NOTE Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding Source Department of Commerce PRICES CONSUMER PRICES The overall consumer price index rose slightly between March and April with fractional increases in all major commodity groups except food and apparel INDEX INDEX O F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S 0 N OFFICE OF THE ECONOMIC ADVISER TO THE PRESIDENT SOURCE DEPARTMENT OF L A B O R J Period monthly average monthly average monthlv average monthly average monthly average monthly average monthly average June 1951 monthly average 1952 monthly average 1952 March April May June Julv August September October November December 1953 January February M arch April All items Food Apparel Housing Total w a Rent B Trans Medical Personal Reading Other and goods portacare and care recreation tion services W W W W W a W W W i The new base is in compliance with recommendations of the U S Bureau of the Budget Beginning with January 1953 the index structure has been Changed Not available 8 Food prices rose 0 6 percent between mid April and mid May according to preliminary data Q Source Department of L aber Wholesale prices on the average were stable during May Prices of farm products declined throughout the month while processed food prices increased toward the end of the month Industrial prices showed little or no week toweek changes INDEX I947 49 IOO 120 INDEX SOURCE DEPARTMENT OF LABOR OFFICE OF THE ECONOMIC ADVISER TO THE PRESIDENT Period 1942 monthly average 1946 monthly average 1947 monthly average 1948 monthly average 1949 monthly average 1950 monthly average June 1951 monthly average 1952 monthly average 1952 March April May June July August September October November December 1953 January February March April Week ended May June 2 1 Not available All commodities Farm products Weekly data not shown on chart Other than farm products and foods industrial Processed foods C1 Source Department of La bor PRICES RECEIVED AND PAID BY FARMERS Prices received by farmers rose slightly between mid April and mid May while prices paid by them were unchanged As a result the parity ratio climbed 1 index point to INDEX INDEX I9IO I4 IOO AND WAGE RATES I 1I I I I I I I i i i i t I i i i i i I i i i I i i i i I OFFICE OF THE ECONOMIC ADVISER TO THE PRESIDENT Prices received by farmers Period monthly average monthly average monthly average monthly average monthly average monthlv average monthly average June monthly average 1952 monthly average April 15 Mav 15 June 15 July 15 August 15 September 15 October 15 Novembpr 15 December January 15 February 15 March 15 April 15 M av Parity index prices paid interest taxes Parity ratio l and wage rates i Ratio of index of prices received by farmers to parity index Includes wartime subsidy payments paid on beef cattle sheep lambs milk and butterfat between October 1943 and June I Source Department of Agriculture 84S7S 5S T ion w mi w IN M i iU 1 s BTUUK Stock prices of most major industrial groups fluctuated during the early weeks of May but all major groups showed sharp declines in the last week of the month INDEX 1939X INDEX F M A M J 52 J 1953 OFFICE OF THE ECONOMIC ADVISER TO THE PRESIDENT CompositeJ index Period Weekly average June April May June July August September October November December January February March April May Week ended 1953 May June Manufacturing Total Durable goods Nondurable goods Transportation Utilities Trade finance Mining and service Includes 265 common stocks distributed as follows 14 for mining 98 for durable poods manufacturing 72 for nondurable goods manufacturing 21 for transportation 28 for utilities and 32 for trade finance and service Indexes are for weekly closing prices 2 Datn became available after chart was prepared Source Securities and Exchange Commission EMPLOYMENT AND WAGES CIVILIAN LABOR FORCE Total civilian employment moved up in May to 61 7 million On account of bad weather the rise in agricultural employment was smaller than usually occurs this time of year There was little overall change in nonagricultural employment Unemployment dropping again represented only about 2 1 percent of all civilian workers MILLIONS OF PERSONS MILLIONS OF PERSONS LJNI IMPLOYMENT AS PERCENT OF CIVILIAN LABOR FORCE TV i i i f l j r i l sl to te l BiSi AW W t AND OVER fjf MMTMtNT Of COMMERCE OFFICE OF THE ECONOMIC ADVISER TO THE PRESIDENT Total labor force including armed forces Period HIJJM HH4 11 4 HHB li 4 i IHM monthly fiuiiiOiiv fiuinUtlv titortthlv mouth v ttiotilhlv nvorage average fiv rnge average average Avorape JlltH W I nifttithlv average M f 2 mint MY average 19 2 April f lttv Jiittp J u l v AMinmt v Hiij t iiibpr Dttinbi NuvrmJw i lit writ bin IPftHj JttliiiUfv i l Hf ftVv MnMi t ApMJ f c Mnv f C C2 Civilian labor force 1 UnemEmployment ployAgricul NonagriTotal ment tural cultural Thousands of persons 14 years of age and over F Total Unemployment as percent of total civilian labor force H iiifc fj 6ft itmi w0r rr nmi those who had jobs but were not at work for such reasons as vacation illness bad weather temporary lay ofi till if i W M titt ii f W NOTI Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding Source Department of Commerce JJMFLjUYMENT SELECTED INDUSTRIES Total employment in manufacturing industries declined slightly in April mainly because of post Easter reductions in apparel textile and leather industries Compared to April 1952 however it was up about 1 million with all major industry groups except lumber reporting more workers Construction employment continued to rise seasonally The nM b r of Fc f omrJov s rlror r oH rn fy f r n rTcr t nc tno r c of tn Stot on MILLIONS OF WAGE AND SALARY WORKERS MILLIONS OF WAGE AND SALARY WORKERS NONDURABLE MANUFACTURING DURABLE MANUFACTURING J F M A M J J A S O N D J CONTRACT CONSTRUCTION F M A M J J A S O N D WHOLESALE AND RETAIL TRADE OFFICE OF 1HE ECONOMIC ADVISER TO THE PRESIDENT SOURCE DEPARTMENT OF LABOR Thousands of wage and salary workers Manufacturing Period Total monthly average monthlv average monthly average monthly average monthlv average June monthly average monthlv average 1952 April Mav June July August September October November December 1953 January 2 February March 2 April Durable Nondugoods rable goods Contract Wholesale Finance construc and retail service etc trade tion Government Federal State local Transportation and public utilities Mining Revised series see Employment and Payrolls April 1953 Includes all full and part time wage and salary workers in nonagricultural establishments who worked during or received pay for any part of the pay period ending nearest the 15th of the month Excludes proprietors self employed persons domestic servants and personnel of the armed forces Total derived from this table not comparable with estimates of nonagricultural employment of the civilian labor force reported by the Department of Commerce p 7 which include proprietors self employed persons and domestic servants which count persons as employed when they are not at work because of industrial disputes and which are based on an enumeration of population whereas the estimates in tb s table are based on reports from employing t blishments 2 Preliminary estimates Source Department of Labor 8 AVERAGE WEEKLY HOURS SELECTED INDUSTRIES The average workweek in manufacturing industries declined 0 3 hours in April but still was about equal to the April 1951 postwar peak for the month Most of the decline took place in nondurable goods manufacturing primarily because of post Easter slackening in apparel textile and leather output HOURS PER WEEK HOURS PER WEEK NONDURABLE MANUFACTURING DURABLE MANUFACTURING i 71 RETAIL TRADE BUILDING CONSTRUCTION SOURCE DEPARTMENT OF LABOR OFFICE OF THE ECONOMIC ADVISER TO THE PRESIDENT Hours per week for production and related workers in selected industries J Manufacturing r Period 1939 monthly average 1943 monthly average 1 946 monthlv average 1947 monthly average 1948 monthly average 1 949 monthly average 1950 monthly average June 1951 monthly average 1952 monthly average 1952 March April Mav June July August September October November December 1953 January 8 February March 3 April 3 Total Durable goods Nondurable goods Building construction Retail trade i Revised series see Employments and Payrolls April 1953 s Preliminary estimates Source Department of kabor J Data beginning with January 1948 are cot strictly comparable with those for earlier periods Not available AVERAGE HOURLY EARNINGS SELECTED INDUSTRIES Average hourly earnings in manufacturing industries averaged 1 75 in April the same as in March but 10 cents more than in April 1952 DOLL XRS PER HOUR DOLL ARS PER HOUR DURABLE MANUFACTURING BUILDING CONSTRUCTION a PRICES PRICES V CURRENT PRICES CURRENT PRICES S 1 50 J J r 1 90 rr i i M iT i r I T ii i Tl 1 0 ITi i i i T I i if i if i I NONDURABLE MANUFACTURING RETAIL TRADE J962 PRICES X i f l TS 1 I952 PRICES u Z tr r i CURRENT PRICES SL CURRENT PRICES JTn ifi i i J IO i i M l fi rr M i M 1 1 if i if i if 1 1 MI i M iTi I I EARNINGS IN CURRENT PRICES DIVIDED BY CONSUMER PRICE INDEX ON BASE OFFICE OF THE ECONOMIC ADVISER TO THE PRESIDENT SOURCE DEPARTMENT OF LABOR For production and related workers in selected industries l Period 1939 monthly average monthly average 1946 monthly average 1947 monthlv average 1948 monthly average 1949 monthlv average 1950 monthly average June 1951 monthly average monthly average 1952 March April May June July August September October November December 1953 January 4 February March 4 April 4 All manufacturing Current 1952 2 prices prices Building Durable goods Nondurable goods Retail trade construction manufacturing manufacturing 1952 Current 1952 2 Current 1952 2 Current 1952 2 Current prices prices 2 prices prices prices prices prices prices J Revised series see Employment and Payrolls April 1953 s Earnings in current prices divided by consumer price index on base a Data beginning with January 1948 are not strictly comparable with those for earlier periods 10 Preliminary estimates Not available Source Department of Labor AVERAGE WEEKLY EARNINGS SELECTED INDUSTRIES In April average weekly earnings in manufacturing industries declined slightly to 71 40 because of a seasonal drop in hours worked in the consumer soft goods sector However there was a gain of 5 70 over a year ago reflecting both a longer workweek and higher wage rates DOLLARS PER WEEK DOLLARS PER WEEK DURABLE MANUFACTURING BUILDING CONSTRUCTION CURRENT RETAIL TRADE NONDURABLE MANUFACTURING CURRENT PRICES 40 0 M i i t i i i i i EARNINGS IN CURRENT PRICES DIVIDED BY CONSUMER PRICE INDEX ON BASE SOURCE DEPARTMENT OF LABOR OFFICE OF THE ECONOMIC ADVISER TO THE PRESIDENT For production and related workers in selected industries l Durable goods All manufacturing manufacturing Period 1939 monthly average 1943 monthly average 1946 monthly average 1947 monthly average 1948 monthlv average 1949 monthly average 1950 monthly average June 1951 monthlv average 1952 monthly average 1952 March April May June July August September October November December 1953 January 4 February March 4 April 4 Current 1952 2 prices prices Nondurable goods manufacturing Building construction Retail trade 1952 Current prices prices 2 Current prices 1952 prices 2 Current prices 1952 prices 2 Current prices 1952 prices i Revised series see Employment and Payrolls April 1953 Earnings in current prices divided by consumer price index on base 1952 1QO Data beginning with January 1948 are not strictly comparable with tnosejor earlier periods Source Department of Labor Preliminary estimates 8 Not available 11 AINU JBUJblJMtJSfc AUT1V1TY INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION Industrial production in May continued at the near record level of April according to preliminary estimates Durable goods output was unchanged Nondurable goods production continued at a high level An increase in minerals output was due to a pick up in fuels production following a period of inventory adjustment INDEX J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D OFFICE OF THE ECONOMIC ADVISER TO THE PRESIDENT seasonally adjusted Period monthly average 1946 monthly average 1947 monthly average 1948 monthly average 1949 monthly average 1950 monthly average June 1951 monthly average 1952 monthly average 1952 April May June July August September October November December 1953 January February March April i May i 1 Preliminary estimates Total industrial production lanufacture s Total Durable goods N on duraable goods Minerals Source Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System WEEKLY PRODUCTION SELECTED INDICATORS Steel production was maintained at full capacity during May Electric power generation continued to exceed levels of a year ago A sharp decline in the assembly rate of cars and trucks during the latter part of the month resulted from suppliers strikes Bituminous coal production increased MILLIONS OF SHORT TONS DAILY AVERAGE MILLIONS OF TONS 3 BITUMINOUS COAL J J F M A M J S 0 N I I I I I I I I D BILLIONS OF KILOWATT HOURS THOUSANDS SOURCES AMERICAN IRON AND STEEL INSTITUTE DEPARTMENT OF THE INTERIOR EDISON EtECTRIC INSTITUTE AND WARtfS AUTOMOTIVE REPORTS St 2el Period Weekly average 1950 June April May June Julv a Augu September October November December January February March April 3 May Week ended 1953 Mav June 6 13 Thousands of net tons Percent of theoretical capacity l N 0 OFFICE OF THE ECONOMIC ADVISER TO THE PRESIDENT Electric power Bituminous by utilities coal thousands of millions of kilowatt hours short tons 2 Cars and trucks number S O i l i or Percent of capacity based on weekly net ton capacity of for the first half of beginning July iM inninr J n n u m y I H M beginning January and beginning January Daily average for week J rHiinimu linith Sources American Iron and Steel Institute Edison Electric Institute Department of the Interior and Ward s Automotive Reports PRODUCTION OF SELECTED MANUFACTURES Overall production of durable goods in April was about the same as in March with changes ranging from an increase of 2 percent in stone clay and glass products to a decrease of 6 percent in lumber and products Although output of nondurable goods was down slightly from the record March level production of chemicals paper and rubber products was maintained at postwar peak rates X ADJUSTED FOR SEASONAL VARIATION INDEX ADJUSTED FOR SEASONAL VARIATION OFFICE OF THE ECONOMIC ADVISER TO THE PRESIDENT SOURCE BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM seasonally adjusted Nondurable manufactures Durable manufactures Period 1943 monthly average 1946 monthly average monthly average monthly average 1949 monthly average monthly average June 1951 monthly average 1952 monthlv average March April May June July August September October November December 1953 January February March Audi i 1 Preliminary estimates 14 Iron and steel Lumber and products Nonferrous Textiles Machinery metals and and products products Petroleum Manufac Chemical and coal tured food products products products Source Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System GROSS PRIVATE DOMESTIC INVESTMENT Total investment seasonally adjusted annual rates dropped about 3 billion in the first quarter There was a sharp decline in the rate of inventory accumulation However investment in new construction and producers1 durable equipment which account for most of total investment increased BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 70 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 1 70 SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES GROSS PRIVATE DOMESTIC INVESTMENT PRODUCERS DURABLE EQUI MENT ISTRUCTION X CHANGE IN BUSINESS INVENTORIES OFFICE OF THE ECONOMIC ADVISER TO THE PRESIDENT SOURCE DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE Billions of dollars Total gross private domestic investment Period New construction Residential nonfarm Total Other Producers durable equipment Change in business inventories a9 Seasonally adjusted annual rates 1951 Third quarter Fourth quarter 1952 First quarter Second quarter Third quarter Fourth quarter 1953 First quarter NOTE Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding Source Department of Commerce 15 EXPENDITURES FOR NEW PLANT AND EQUIPMENT Business plans to spend about 28 7 billion annual rate for new plant and equipment in the third quarter according to a survey made in May This is about the same as the total for the second quarter of this year but about 3 billion more than was spent in the third quarter of last year All major industry groups reported plans for spending more than a year ago BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 35 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS SEE NOTE 4 ON TABLE BELOW OFFICE OF THE ECONOMIC ADVISER TO THE PRESIDENT SOURCES SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE COMMISSION AND DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE Billions of dollars Transportation Mining Durable NonduraRailroads Other goods ble goods Manufacturing Total1 Period a Total Public utilities Commercial and other Seasonally adjusted annual rates 1951 Third quarter Fourth quarter 1952 First quarter Second quarter Third quarter Fourth quarter 1953 First quarter 4 Second quarter Third quarter s s Excludes agriculture Commercial and other includes trade service finance communicatiODs and construction Not available Estimates based on anticipated capital expenditures reported by business in May 1953 NOTE These figures do not agree with the totals included in the gross national product estimates of the Department of Commerce principally because the latter cover agricultural investment and also certain equipment and construction outlays charged to current expense Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding Sources Securities and Exchange Commission and Department of Commerce 16 UUJMJ5TKUUT1UJM Expenditures for new construction seasonally adjusted have been about 2 9 billion for 4 consecutive months Expenditures for each month of this year have exceeded those of a year ago with the total for the first 5 months being 6 percent above the comparable period of 1952 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS ADJUSTED FOR SEASONAL VARIATION PRIVATE RESIDENTIAL NONFARM FEDERAL STATE AND LOCAL I J F M A M J J A S O N D J F I M I A I M 1951 J I I I I A S O N I I J D 1952 I I I I J F M A M I J I J I A I S I O 1 N I0 D 1953 SOURCES DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE AND DEPARTMENT OF LABOR OFFICE OF THE ECONOMIC ADVISER TO THE PRESIDENT Millions of dollars seasonally adjusted Total new construction Period 1939 monthly average 1942 monthly average 1944 roonthlv average 1946 monthly average 1943 monthly average 1949 monthly average 1950 monthly average June monthly average 1952 monthly average 1952 April May June July August September October November December 1953 January FebruaryMarch April 2 May 1 ID eludes public residential construction Preliminary estimates Private construction Total Residential Other nonfarm private Federal State and local l owpes Department ol Commerce and Department of Labor 17 NEW HOUSING STARTS New nonfarm housing units started in April totaled with private housing accounting for the entire gain This represented an increase of 1 3 percent from March and 4 percent from April 1952 For the first 4 months of 1953 total new homes started totaled slightly above the number for the like period of last year THOUSANDS OF UNITS THOUSANDS OF UNITS OFFICE OF THE ECONOMIC ADVISER TO THE PRESIDENT SOURCE DEPARTMENT OF LABOR New nonfarm units started 1949 January February March April May June July August September October November December Month Total Monthly average Monthly total Monthly total Seasonally adjusted annual rate Seasonally adjusted annual rate l i Seasonally adjusted annual rate data are shown monthly beginning with June 1952 the first month used in determining periods of residential credit control relaxation pursuant to the provisions of the Defense Production Act Amendments of 1952 sec 607 For method of computing seasonally adjusted annual rates see special release of August by the Department of Labor Preliminary estimates Source Department of Labor 18 INVENTORIES AND SALES Total business inventories seasonally adjusted increased about 1 percent in April with the latest rise occurring in retail inventories There was a rise of 5 percent in manufacturers sales and a drop in sales at the wholesale and retail levels BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS RETAIL TOTAL AND MANUFACTURING SEASONALLY ADJUSTED v w INVENTORIES SALES t i t i i 1 I 11 t I 1951 I 1 1 I 1 1 I t WDEX DEPARTMENT STORES SEASONALLY ADJUSTED tA A w INVENTORIES UULLLL I WHOLESALE MANUFACTURING AND RETAIL OFFICE OF THE ECONOMIC ADVISER TO THE PRESIDENT SOURCES DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE AND BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM Period Total business InvenSales f tories 3 Retail InvenSales tories s Manufacturing Inventories a Sales New orders Millions of dollars seasonally adjusted June March April May June 72 913 Julv August 72 714 September October 74 189 November 74 682 December January 74 619 February 74 941 March April Department stores InvenSales tories Index seasonally adjusted Also includes wholesale not shown separately in this table Revised series beginning with 1951 not comparable with previous data Book value end of period See Survey of Current Business September and November 1962 for detail Monthly average for year and total for month Preliminary estimates Book value end of period except annual data which are monthly averages Sources Department of Commerce and Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System 19 MERCHANDISE EXPORTS AND IMPORTS During April there was a further harrowing of the gap between commercial exports that is exports exclusive of shipments under the Mutual Security Program and imports as imports increased more than total exports while grant aid shipments were unchanged MILLIONS OF DOLLARS MILLIONS OF DOLLARS MERCHANDISE EXPORTS EXCLUDING GRANT AID SHIPMENTS IS I SEE FOOTNOTES I AND 2 ON TABLE BELOW SOURCES DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE AND DEP OFFICE OF THE ECONOMIC ADVISER TO THE PRESIDENT Millions of dollar Merchandise exports Excess of e xports or impo rt s v T tC Period Total 1936 38 monthly average 1946 monthly average 1947 monthly average 1948 monthlv average 1949 monthlv average 1950 monthly average June 1951 monthly average 1952 monthlv average 1952 March April May June Julv August September October November December 1953 Januarv February March s April Grant aid shipments l f Excluding grant aid shipments Merchandise imports i Department of Defense shipments of grant aid military equipment and supplies under the Mutual Security Program 3 Shipments began in July 1950 For the year 1950 total grant aid shipments amounted to 8g million dollars nf NOTE Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding SOUBCBS Department of Commerce and Department of Defense Excluding grant aid shipments Total f 40 f f 190 j f s Preliminary estimate PURCHASING POWER NATIONAL INCOME National income seasonally adjusted increased in the first quarter There was a rise in compensation of employees primarily in manufacturing industries in corporate profits and in net interest A decline in farm proprietors lincome offset a further increase in nonfarm business earnings BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS CORPORATE PROFITS AND INVENTORY VALUATION ADJUSTMENT PRELIMINARY ESTIMATES SOURCE DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE OFFICE OF THE ECONOMIC ADVISER TO THkPRESIDENT BillioDS of dollars Total national income Period Corporate profits and inventory valuation adjustment Compensation of employees Proprietors business professional farm and rental income Net interest Total Profits before taxes Inventory valuation adjustment Seasonally adjusted annual rates 1951 Third quarter Fourth quarter 1952 First quarter Second quarter Third quarter Fourth quarter 1953 First quarter J Preliminary estimates by the Office of the Economic Adviser to the President NOTE Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding Source Department of Commerce except as notedJ J CORPORATE PROFITS Corporate profits and dividends in the first quarter are estimated to have been about the same as a year earlier BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS NO ALLOWANCE FOR INVENTORY VALUATION ADJUSTMENT PRELIMINARY ESTIMATES OFFICE OF THE ECONOMIC ADVISER TO THE PRESIDENT SOURCE DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE Billions of dollars Corporate profits before taxes Period Third quarter Fourth quarter 1952 First quarter Second quarter Third quarter Fourth quarter 1953 First quarter Corporate tax liability Corporate profits ufter taxes Total Dividend payments B Seasonally adjusted annual rates Undistributed profits i Preliminary estimates by the Office of the Economic Adviser to the President NOTE See p 21 for profits before taxes and inventory valuation adjustment Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding Source Department of Commerce except as noted 22 IJSIUUJYUt Total personal income in April was little changed from the March level A billion dollar increase in labor income was practically offset by a decline in farm proprietors income as both prices and volume of marketings fell below the March level Changes in other categories were minor BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 300 SOURCE DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE OFFICE OF THE ECONOMIC ADVISER TO THE PRESIDENT BillioTiR of dollars Period Proprietors income Labor income salaries Dividends Business Total per wages and professional and personal sonal income other labor Farm interest and rental income 1 income Seasonally adjusted annual rates 1950 June 1952 March April May June July August September October November December 1953 January February March April Excludes social insurance contributions of employees and beginning January 1952 of self employed persons Includes 2 7 billion National Service Life Insurance dividend most of which was paid in tne first half of the year Preliminary estimates NOTI Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding Source Department of Commerce Transfer payments ia CONSUMER INCOME SPENDING AND SAVING Consumer spending rose more than disposable income in the first quarter although it remained at a high peacetime level In consequence the saving rate dropped BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS PERSONAL INCOME LESS TAXES 1 OFFICE OF THE ECONOMIC ADVISER TO THE PRESIDENT SOURCE DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE Disposable personal income 1 Period Less Personal consumption expenditures Total Durable goods Nondurable goods Services Equals Personal net saving Net saving as percent of disposable income Billions of dollars Seasonally adjusted annual rates 1951 Third quarter Fourth quarter 1952 First quarter Second quarter Third quarter Fourth quarter 1953 First quarter i Income less taxes 24 NOTE Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding Source Department of Commerce PER CAPITA DISPOSABLE INCOME In the first quarter per capita disposable income in both current and constant prices increased again but at a slower rate than in the preceding quarter DOLLARS 1 600 ANNUAL AVERAGES 1 600 SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES CURRENT PRICES I I I I I I I I I I I I J I J I OFFICE OF THE ECONOMIC ADVISER TO THE PRESIDENT Total disposable personal Per capita disposable personal income dollars 1 income billions of dollars 1 Period Current prices prices Current prices prices Population thousands Seasonally adjusted annual rates Third quarter Fourth quarter 1952 First quarter Second quarter Third quarter Fourth quarter 1953 First quarter Income less taies Dollar estimates in current prices divided by an over all implicit price index for personal consumption expenditures This price index is based on Department of Commerce data shifted from a 1939 base Provisional intercensal estimates of the population of the United States including armed forces overseas taking into account the final 1950 Census total popu lation count Annual data as of July 1 quarterly data centered in the middle of the period interpolated from monthly figures SourcesrDepartment of Commerce and the Office of the Economic Adviser to the President 25 FARM INCOME Form income declined in April to a level well below that of the corresponding month in both 1952 and 1951 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 5 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS FARM INCOME IN CURRENT PRICES DIVIDED BY PARITY INDEX ON BASE NOTE FARM INCOME INCLUDES CASH RECEIPTS FROM MARKETINGS AND GOVERNMENT PAYMENTS SOURCE DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE Period 1939 monthly average 1941 monthly average 1944 monthly average 1946 monthly average 1948 monthly average 1949 monthly average 1950 monthly average June 1951 monthly average monthly average 1952 March April May June Julv August September October November December 1953 January February March 3 April Parity index Farm income Farm income prices paid millions of millions of interest taxes current and wage rates 1952 dollars 2 l dollars i Converted from the reported base to the basei Farm income in current dollars divided by parity index on base Preliminary estimates NOTE Farm income includes cash receipts from marketings and Government payments Source Department of Agriculture OFFICE OF THE ECONOMIC TOVfSfR TO THE PRESIDENT CREDIT MONEY AND FEDERAL FINANCE BANK LOANS AND INVESTMENTS Bank loans changed very little during April month Holdings of Government securities declined for the fifth consecutive BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS END OF YEAR END OF MONTH OFFICE OF THE ECONOMIC ADVISER TO THE PRESIDENT SOURCE BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM ui dollars All commercial banks End of period June March April May June July August September October November December 1953 January February March April22 Mav Investments Total loans and investments Bank loans Total i Commercial industrial and agricultural loans revised series beginning January 1952 NOTE Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding U S Government securities Other securities Weekly reporting member banks business loans Preliminary estimates Source Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System 27 CONSUMER CREDIT omumci credit outstanding rose 500 million in April Instalment credit accounted for four fifths of the increase and automobile instalment credit alone for three fifths of the increase BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS END OF YEAR END OF MONTH SOURCE BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM Total consumer credit outstanding End of period June March April Mav June July August September October November December 1953 January February March April OFFICE OF THE ECONOMIC ADVISER TO THE PRESIDENT Millions of dollars Instalment credit Total Automobile paper Other Repair and consumer moderni Personal zation loans goods loans 2 paper J Noninstalment credit Total e Charge accounts Includes all consumer credit extended for the purpose of purchasing automobiles and other consumer goods and secured by the items purchased 2 Includes only such loans held by financial institutions those held by retail outlets are included in other consumer goods paper 3 Single payment loans and service credit Preliminary estimates NOTE Revised series see Federal Reserve Puttetin April 1953 Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding Source Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System 28 Other BOND YIELDS AND INTEREST RATES Yields on U S Government and high grade corporate bonds increased again in May term commercial paper rose sharply The interest rate on short PERCENT PER A N N U M PERCENT PER ANNUM SEE SOURCI OFFICE Of THE ECONOMIC ADVISER TO THE PRESIDENT Percent per annum U S Government security yields Period 3 month Treasury bills Average June April May June July August September October November December1953 January February March April May Rate of new issues within period 15 years and over prior to April years and over beginning in April Taxable bonds s Corporate Aaa bonds Moody sj Prime commercial paper 4 6 months Bonds in this classification were first issued in March 1941 Source Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System 29 MONEY SUPPLY The private money supply rose slightly in April as is usual at this Hme of the year BILLIONS OF D O L L A R S 225 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 225 TOTAL DEPOSITS AND CURRENCY TOTAL EXCLUDING U S GOVERNMENT DEPOSITS PRIVATELY HELD MONEY SUPPLY DEMAND DEPOSITS ADJUSTED TIME DEPOSITS CURRENCY OUTSIDE BANKS U S GOVERNMENT DEPOSITS V L END OF YEAR END OF MONTH SOURCE BOARD OF GOVERNO End of period June March April May June July August September October November December January February March ADril 4 1953 OFFICE OF THE ECONOMIC ADVISER TO THE PRESIDENT Total deposits and currency Billions of dollars Total excluding U S Government deposits privately held money supply U S Government Demand Currency Time deposits deposits outside Total deposits8 banks adjusted a M Uf y J ttt U5 H im i x MM fi5 S Wi J m a S us o fl i Includes U 8 Government deposits at Federal Reserve banks and commercial and savings banks and U 8 Tr uu ur trt tii open account s Includes demand deposits othw than interbank and U 8 Government less cash items in process of collection Includes deposits in commercial banks mutual savings banks and Postal Savings System but excludes interbank fa H it nary estimates Preliminary estiri NOTE Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding Source Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System 30 FEDERAL BUDGET RECEIPTS AND EXPENDITURES Budget expenditures dropped slightly in May bringing the total for the first 11 months of the fiscal year to 66 6 billion With budget receipts totaling 55 5 billion the cumulative deficit was 11 1 billion compared to a deficit of 6 9 billion at the same time last year BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS TOTAL BUDGET EXPENDITURES X r FISCAL YEAR FISCAL YEAR 1951 J MAJOR NATIONAL SECURITY PROGRAMS A S O N D BUDGET SURPLUS J F OR DEFICIT M A M J MAGNIFIED SCALE FISCAL YEAR f I I I I I I I J J A S O FISCAL YEARS CUMULATIVE TOTALS SOURCES TREASURY DEPARTMENT AND BUREAU OF THE BUDGET Period Fiscal year 1944 Fiscal year 1947 Fiscal year 1948 Fiscal year 1949 Fiscal year 1950 Fiscal year 1951 Fiscal year April May June July August September October November December 1953 January February March April Mav OFFICE OF THE ECONOMIC ADVISER TO THE PRESIDENT Billions of dollars Budget expenditures Net budget receipts Budget surplus f or deficit Public Major national l Total debt security programs Cumula Total for Cumula end of tive fiscal Cumula Total for Cumula Total for tive fiscal period 3 Total for tive fiscal year tive fiscal period year totals period period year totals period year totals totals i Includes expenditures for military services international security and foreign relations development and control of atomic energy promotion of the merchant marine promotion of defense production and economic stabilization and civil defense 2 Includes guaranteed securities except those held by the Treasury Preliminary estimates Data for fiscal year not strictly comparable with monthly figures OT NOTE Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding Sources Treasury Department and Bureau of the Budget FEDERAL CASH RECEIPTS FROM AND PAYMENTS TO THE PUBLIC The seasonal rise in cash receipts in the first quarter of 1953 resulted in a large cash surplus But the surplus was about 600 million smaller than in the first quarter of 1952 reflecting cash payments about 1 billion higher than a year ago and cash receipts only 650 million higher BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 25 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS IS EXCESS OF CASH RECEIPTS EXCESS OF CASH PAYMENTS CALENDAR YEARS OFFICE OF THE ECONOMIC ADVISER TO THE PRESIDENT SOURCES BUREAU OF THE BUDGET AND TREASURY DEPARTMENT Millions of dollars Federal cash receipts from the public Calendar year Calendar year total Quarterly totals not adjusted for seasonal variation 1951 First quarter Second quarter Third quarter Fourth quarter First Quarter Second quarter Third quarter Fourth quarter First quarter Federal cash payments to the public t Excess of receipts or payments NOTE Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding Sources Bureau of the Budget and Treasury Department 32 For sale by the Superintendent of Documents TJ S Government Printing Office Washington 25 D C Price 20 cents per copy 2 00 per year 2 50 foreign

Industrial Production

DATE: June 1953

PART OF:

Economic Indicators : June 1953

AUTHOR:

Council of Economic Advisers (U.S.)

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Council of Economic Advisers (U.S.) , United States. Congress. Joint Committee on the Economic Report, 1946-1956 and United States. Congress. Joint Economic Committee, 1956-. "Industrial Production," in Council of Economic Advisers (U.S.) , United States. Congress. Joint Committee on the Economic Report, 1946-1956 and United States. Congress. Joint Economic Committee, 1956-. "June 1953," Economic Indicators (June 1953) : 15-15. https://fraser.stlouisfed.org/title/1/item/284/toc/426059 , accessed on December 6, 2019.

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Economic Data