Bond Yields and Interest Rates

Name: Bond Yields and Interest Rates
Creator: FRASER
Keywords: Economic Data, Economic indicators, Economic conditions, United States

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The following is plain-text output generated by Optical Character Recognition. 82d Congress 2d Session Economic Indicators MAY 1952 Prepared for the Joint Committee on the Economic Report by the Council of Economic Advisers UNITED STATES GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE WASHINGTON JOINT COMMITTEE ON THE ECONOMIC REPORT Created pursuant to Sec 5 a of Public Law 304 79th Cong JOSEPH C O MAHONEY Wyoming Chairman EDWARD J HART New Jersey Vice Chairman JOHN J SPARKMAN Alabama PAUL H DOUGLAS Illinois WILLIAM BENTON Connecticut ROBERT A TAFT Ohio RALPH E FLANDERS Vermont ARTHUR V WATKINS Utah WRIGHT PATMAN Texas RICHARD BOLLING Missouri CLINTON D McKINNON California JESSE P WOLCOTT Michigan CHRISTIAN A HERTER Massachusetts J CALEB BOGGS Delaware GMOVES W ENSLBY Staff Director JOHN W LEHMAN Clerk COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS Created pursuant to Sec 4 a of Public Law 304 79th Cong LEON H KEYSERLING Chairman JOHN D CLARK ROY BLOUGH PUBLIC LAW 120 81sT CONGRESS CHAPTER 237 IST SESSION JOINT RESOLUTION S J Res 55 To print the monthly publication entitled Economic Indicators Resolved by the Senate and House of Representatives flf the United States of America in Congress assembled That the Joint Committee on the Economic Report be authorized to issue a monthly publication entitled Economic Indicators and that a sufficient quantity be printed to furnish one copy to each Member of Congress the Secretary and the Sergeant at Arms of the Senate the Clerk Sergeant at Arms and Doorkeeper of the House of Representatives two copies to the libraries of the Senate and House and the Congressional Library seven hundred copies to the Joint Committee on the Economic Report and the required number of copies to the Superintendent of Documents for distribution to depository libraries and that the Superintendent of Documents be authorized to have copies printed for sale to the public Approved June 23 1949Charts drawn by Graphics Unit Office of the Secretary Department of Commerce 11 Contents THE TOTAL OUTPUT OF THE ECONOMY The Nation s Economic Accounts Gross National Product Page PRICES Consumers Prices Wholesale Prices Prices Received and Paid by Farmers Stock Prices EMPLOYMENT AND WAGES Civilian Labor Force Nonagricultural Employment Selected Industries Average Weekly Hours Selected Industries Average Hourly Earnings Selected Industries Average Weekly Earnings Selected Industries PRODUCTION AND BUSINESS ACTIVITY Industrial Production Weekly Production Selected Indicators Production of Selected Manufactures Gross Private Domestic Investment Expenditures for New Plant and Equipment New Construction New Housing Starts Inventories and Sales Merchandise Exports and Imports PURCHASING POWER National Income Corporate Profits Personal Income Consumer Income Spending and Saving Per Capita Disposable Income Farm Income CREDIT MONEY AND FEDERAL FINANCE Bank Loans and Investments Consumer Credit Bond Yields and Interest Rates Money Supply Federal Budget Receipts and Expenditures Federal Cash Receipts From and Payments to the Public THE TOTAL OUTPUT OF THE ECONOMY THE NATION S ECONOMIC ACCOUNTS On the basis of national income and expenditure accounts consumer saving almost offset the excess of business investment over retained earnings in the first quarter of 1952 Government Federal State and local expenditures for goods and services were approximately equal to receipts when adjusted for transfer payments BILLIONS OF DOLLARS SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES ANNUAL TOTALS CONSUMERS DISPOSABLE INCOME EXPENDITURES I I I t I I 1 GOVERNMENT FEDERAL STATE AND LOCAL EXPENDITURES FOR GOODS AND SERVICES t EXCESS OF RECEIPTS J INCLUDES NET FOREIGN INVESTMENT IN ADDITION TO GROSS PRIVATE DOMESTIC INVESTMENT J2 INCLUDES UNDISTRIBUTED CORPORATE PROFITS AND CORPORATE INVENTORY VALUATION ADJUSTMENT AND CAPITAL CONSUMPTION ALLOWANCES NOTE THE SUM OF THE THREE INCOME AND RECEIPT ITEMS SHOWN JN THIS CHART IS NOT EQUAL TO THE SUM OF THE EXPENDITURES OR GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT BECAUSE OF STATISTICAL DISCREPANCIES SEE SENATE REPORT NO 1295 JOINT ECONOMIC REPORT PP FOR EXPLANATION AND USE OF THIS ARRANGEMENT SOURCE DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE COUNCIL OP ECONOMIC ADVISERS GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT Gross national product in the first quarter of 1952 was at an annual rate of 4K billion higher than in the fourth quarter of last year according to preliminary estimates Most of the increase was in national security expenditures but personal consumption expenditures also rose BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OP DOLLARS PRELIMINARY ESTIMATES BY COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS COUNCIL OF SOURCE DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE EXCEPT AS NOTED ECONOMIC ADVISERS Billions of dollars Total gross national product Period Personal consump Gross private Net foreign domestic tion expend investment investment itures Government purchases of goods and services Total National security l Other Seasonally adjusted annual rates 1950 Third quarter Fourth quarter 1951 First quarter Second quarter Third quarter Fourth quarter 1952 First quarter J Includes expenditures for military services international security and foreign relations except foreign loans atomic energy merchant marine and promotion of defense production and economic stabilization excludes Federal Government sales For further detail see Economic Report of the President January 1952 p 167 and 2 Survey of Current Business February 1952 p 9 Residual expenditures by the Federal Government for other than national security and total expenditures by State and local governments 8 Estimates based on incomplete data by Council of Economic Advisers NOTE Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding Source Department of Commerce except as noted PRICES CONSUMERS PRICES Consumers1 prices which had declined in February rose 0 1 percent in March Food prices on the average were stable rents increased and the prices of appare and housefurnishmgs dropped a little PERCENT OF 1935 39 AVERAGE PERCENT OF 1935 39 AVERAGE J F M A M J J A S O N O J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N O I960 SOURCE DEPARTMENT OF LABOR J F M A M J J A S O N D 1952 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS Period 1939 monthly average 1943 monthly average 1944 monthly average 1945 monthly average 1946 monthly average 1948 monthly average 1949 monthly average 1950 monthly average June 15 1951 monthly average 1951 February 15 March 15 April 15 May June 15 July 15 August 15 September 15 October 15 November 15 December January 15 February 15 March 15 1 All items Food Apparel Rent A special survey of food pric es indicated an increase of 1 0 percent between March 15 and April 15 NOTE Revised index of prices for moderate income families in large cities Source Department of Labor Fuel electricity and refrigeration Housefurnishings Miscellaneous WHOLESALE PRICES In March wholesale prices generally were a little lower than in February Farrn prices increased slightly while processed food and industrial prices edged downward Week to week changes during April indicated some further weakening of food prices and a minor decline in the prices of farm products PERCENT OF 1947 49 AVERAGE PERCENT OF 1947 49 AVERAGE 120 SOURCE DEPARTMENT OF LABOR COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS All commodities Period monthly average monthly average monthly average monthly average monthly average monthly average June 1951 monthly average 1951 March April May June July August September October November December 1952 January February March Week ended 1952 April Farm products Processed foods i i 0 i i Not available NOTI Revised index For description of the revision see The Monthly Labor Review February Source Department of Labor Other than farm products and foods industrial i o y iio n PRICES RECEIVED AND PAID BY FARMERS In April for the third month in a row the parity ratio held at 100 both rose slightly The prices received and prices paid indexes PERCENT OF 1910 14 AVERAGE PERCENT OF 1910 14 AVERAGE AND WAGE RATES i960 SOURCE DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS Prices received by farmers Period 1939 monthly average 1942 monthly average 1944 monthly average 1946 monthly average 1947 monthly average 1948 monthly average 1949 monthly average 1950 monthly average June monthly average 1951 March 15 April 15 May 15 June 15 July 15 August 15 September 15 October 15 November 15 December January 15 February 15 March 15 ADril Parity index prices paid interest taxes Parity ratio l and wage rates Ratio of index of prices received by farmers to parity index Includes wartime subsidy payments paid on beef cattle sheep lambs milk and butterfat between October 1943 and June 1946 Source Department of Agriculture STOCK PRICES During April stock prices declined fairly sharply from their high levels reached in the last week of March PERCENT OF 1939 AVERAGE PERCENT OF 1939 AVERAGE SOURCE SECURITIES AND E X C H A N G E COMMISSION COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS Compositel index Period Weekly average June April May June July August September October November December 1952 January February Mareh April Week ended 1952 April Manufacturing Total Durable goods Nondurable goods Transportation Utilities Trade finance and service Mining Includes 265 common stocks distributed as follows 14 for mining 98 for durable goods manufacturing 72 for nondurable goods manufacturing 21 for transportation 28 for utilities and 32 for trade finance and service Source Securities and Exchange Commission EMPLOYMENT AND WAGES CIVILIAN LABOR FORCE The 400 000 rise in civilian employment in April resulted from a seasonal increase in agricultural employment There was practically no change in total nonagricultural employment Unemployment dropped to 1 6 million or 2 6 percent of the civilian labor force MILLIONS OF PERSONS MILLIONS OF PERSONS 70 PERCENT 20 Uh Efl 1PLOYMENT AS PERCENT OF CIVILIAN LA30R FORGE il l vfis i llllii il illliif l I960 SOURCE DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE Mav iV CVJ June July August September October November December 1952 January February March April COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC Period 1939 monthly average 1944 monthly average 1947 monthly average 1948 monthly average 1949 monthly average 1950 monthly average June 1951 monthly average 1951 March April ADVISERS UnemployCivilian labor force ment as perUnemEmployment cent of total ployTotal civilian Agricul NonagriTotal ment labor force tural cultural Thousands of persons 14 years of age and over S Includes part time workers and those who had jobs but were not at work for such reasons as vacation illness bad weather temporary lay off and indii tH i dtepnte 2 Data became available after chart was prepared Source Department of Commerce NOTK Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding NONAGRICULTURAL EMPLOYMENT Manufacturing employment declined slightly in March and was almost 250 000 below a year earlier Reduced output of consumers hard and soft goods was chiefly responsible for the March to March decline However defenserelated industries recorded significant employment gains over the year MILLIONS OF WAGE AND SALARY WORKERS MILLIONS OF WAGE AND SALARY WORKERS 9 5 DURABLE MANUFACTURING I J F M A M J J I A I S I O I N Q I J D I F oP i F M A M J A M J J A S O N D TRADE CONTRACT CONSTRUCTION J I M J A S O N D J I F I M I A M I i J J I I A I S i i O N O Thousands of waee and salary workers l Manufacturing Period Total 1939 monthly average 1943 monthly average 1946 monthly average 1948 monthly average 1949 monthly average 1950 monthly average June 1951 monthly average 1951 February March April May June July August September October November December 1952 January 2 2 February March Contract construcDurable Nondurtion goods able goods Trade Finance and service Government Federal local Transportation and Mining public utilities Includes all full and part time wage and salary workers in nonagricultural establishments wlio worked or received pay during the pay period ending nearest the 15th of the month Excludes proprietors self employed persons domestic servants and personnel of the armed forces Total derived from this table not comparable with estimates of nonagricultural employment of the civilian labor force reported by the Department of Commerce p 7 which include proprietors selfemployed persons and domestic servants which count persons as employed when they are not at work because of industrial disputes and which are based on an enumeration of population whereas the estimates in this table are based on reports from employing establishments 2 Preliminary estimates Source Department of Labor 8 AVERAGE WEEKLY HOURS SELECTED INDUSTRIES The average workweek in both durable and nondurable goods manufacturing industries has been declining since the end of last year HOURS PER WEEK HOURS PER WEEK NONDURABLE MANUFACTURING DURABLE MANUFACTURING iiiij LL LLJ I I RETAIL TRADE 1952 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS SOURCE DEPARTMENT OF LABOR Hours per week selected industries1 Manufacturing V Period Total monthly average monthly average monthly average monthly average monthly average monthly average monthly average June monthly average February March April May June July AugustSeptember October November December 1952 Januarv 4 4 February March 4 C J 1 s For production and related workers Not strictly comparable with previous data Durable goods Not available Preliminary estimates Building Nondurable construction goods Retail trade Source Department of Labor AVERAGE HOURLY EARNINGS SELECTED INDUSTRIES In March average hourly earnings in durable goods industries increased about 1 cent while those in the nondurable goods industries rose somewhat less D O L L A R S PER HOUR DOLLARS PER HOUR DURABLE MANUFACTURING NONDURABLE MANUFACTURING BUILDING CONSTRUCTION s it 195 PRICES X f f J JET J URRENT PRICES T i 1 i M EARNINGS IN CURRENT PRICES DIVSD SOURCE DEPARTMENT OF LABOR m 1952 ON BASE COUNCfL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS Production and related workers in selected industries All manufacturing Period Durable goods manufacturing Nondurable goods manufacturing Building construction Retail trade Current prices monthly aver age monthly average monthly average monthlv average monthlv average monthlv average monthly average June 1951 monthlv average 1951 February March April May June July August September October November December 1952 January 4 February 4 March 4 1951 prices l Current prices 1951 prices 1 Current prices 1951 prices 1 Current 1951 prices prices 1 Current prices nt prices divided by consumers price index on base Not strictly comparable with previous data Preliminary estimates Source Department of Labor 10 prices AVERAGE WEEKLY EARNINGS SELECTED INDUSTRIES Reflecting the decline in the length of the workweek since December average weekly earnings in March were slightly lower than at the end of 1951 in spite of a slow increase in average hourly earnings DOLLARS PER WEEK DOLLARS PER WEEK 55 0 f l i I i i j r 1ji ij j i i 1 1 Ti M i i I i i i i i jf i 1949 I I I EARNINGS IN CURRENT PRICES DIVIDED BY CONSUMERS PRICE INDEX ON BASE SOURCE DEPARTMENT OF LABOR Production and related workers In selected Industries Durable goods manufacturing All Period monthly average monthly average monthly average monthly average monthly average monthly average monthly average June monthly average 1951 February March April May j June July August September October November December 1952 January 4 February 4 March 4 Building construction Retail trade 1951 Current prices prices 1 Current prices 1951 prices 1 1951 Current prices prices 1 Current prices 1951 prices l Current prices Earnings in current prices divided by consumers price index on base Not available Source Department of Labor Nondurable goods manufacturing Not strictly comparable with previous data Preliminary estimates 1951 prices PRODUCTION AND BUSINESS ACTIVITY INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION Total industrial production in April was more than 1 percent below the March level according to preliminary estimates About one half of the decline was due to the loss of steel output when furnaces were banked early in the month in expectation of a strike Production of nondurable goods and of minerals also declined PERCENT OF 1935 39 AVERAGE 400 PERCENT OF AVERAGE 400 PRELIMINARY ESTIMATES SOURCE BOARD OF GOVER COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS seasonally adjusted Total industrial production Period 1943 monthly average 1 946 monthly average 1947 monthly average monthly average 1949 monthly average 1950 monthly average June 1951 monthly average 1951 March April May June July August September October November December 1952 January February March 1 April i 1 12 Preliminary estimates IManufacture s Total Durable goods Nonduraable goods Minerals Source Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System WEEKLY PRODUCTION SELECTED INDICATORS After the drop in steel production early in April previous record weekly levels were almost regained only to have another shutdown disrupt production in the final days of the month In April electric power production continued the seasonal decline begun in March Bituminous coal output decreased and was below April a year ago At the end of the month motor vehicle production reached the highest point since last September MILLIONS OF TONS MILLIONS OF SHORT TONS DAILY AVERAGE ELECTRIC POWER SOURCE AMERICAN IRON AND STEEL INSTITUTE DEPARTMENT OF THE INTERIOR EDISON ELECTRIC INSTITUTE AND WARD S AUTOMOTIVE REPORTS Steel1 Percent of Thousands of theoretical net tons capacity Period Weekly average 1950 June February March April i jr Mav June July August September October November December 1952 January February March April 3 Week ended 1952 April COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS Electric power j by utilities millions of kilowatt hours Bituminous coal thousands of short tons 2 Cars and trucks number Weekly data are scheduled rates of operation monthly figures are for actual output except latest month which is an average of the weekly estimates Percent of capacity based on weekly net ton capacity of for for the first half of beginning July beginning January 1 1951 and beginning January Daily average for week Preliminary estimates Sources American Iron and Steel Institute Edison Electric Institute Department of the Interior and Ward s Automotive Reports 13 PRODUCTION OF SELECTED MANUFACTURES In March there was little change in the output of iron and steel and nonferrous metals Lumber production fell 3 percent and machinery also declined The output of petroleum and coal products chemicals and textiles decreased Manufactured food production increased moderately PERCENT OF 1935 39 AVERAGE ADJUSTED FOR SEASONAL VARIATION 300 PERCENT OF 1935 39 AVERAGE ADJUSTED FOR SEASONAL VARIATION J95Q SOURCE BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS seasonally adjusted Durable manufactures Period monthly average monthly average monthly average monthly average monthly average monthly average June 1951 monthly average 1951 February March April May June July August September October November December 1952 January February March 1 Preliminary estimates 14 Iron and steel Lumber and products Nondurable manufactures Nonferrous Textiles and Machinery metals and products products Petroleum Manufacand coal tured food products products Chemical products Source Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System GROSS PRIVATE DOMESTIC INVESTMENT In the first quarter of 1952 the rate of inventory accumulation continued to drop while investment in plant and equipment and expenditures for residential construction were higher than in the fourth quarter of 1951 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS ANNUAL TOTALS f A A i V PRELIMINARY ESTIMATES BY COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS SOURCE DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE EXCEPT AS NOTED Billions of dollars Total gross private domestic investment Period New construction Residential nonfarm Total Other Producers durable equipment Change in business inventories g Seasonally adjusted annual rates 1950 Third quarter Fourth quarter First quarter Second quarter Third quarter Fourth quarter First quarter Estimates based on incomplete data by Council of Economic Advisers NOTE Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding Source Department of Commerce except as noted 15 EXPENDITURES FOR NEW PLANT AND EQUIPMENT Expenditures for new plant and equipment for the first quarter of 1952 were estimated to be about 24 percent above actual expenditures in the first quarter of 1951 Business plans to spend this year a total of 24 1 billion for new plant and equipment or about 4 percent above the previous high in 1951 according to the latest survey made in February Expenditures of only commercial and miscellaneous businesses are expected to be significantly less in 1952 than in 1951 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 30 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 30 Millions of dollars annual rates not adjusted for seasonal variation Manufacturing Period Total Total Third quarter Fourth quarter 1951 First quarter Second quaiter Third qaarter Fourth quarter First quarter 4 Second quarter Transportation Durable Nondurgoods able goods Electric and gas Mining Railroad Other utilities Commercial and miscellaneous Excludes agriculture Commercial and miscellaneous composed of trade service finance and communication Not available Estimates based on anticipated capital expenditures of business as reported in a survey made in February and early March 1952 NOTE These figures do not agree with the totals included in the gross national product estimates of the Department of Commerce principally because the latter cover agricultural investment and also certain equipment and construction outlays charged to current expense Figures for 1939 44 are Federal Reserve Board estimates based on Securities and Exchange Commission and other data Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding Sources Securities and Exchange Commission and Department of Commerce except as noted NEW CONSTRUCTION New construction expenditures seasonally adjusted fell in April after rising continuously during the preceding 5 months A drop of 17 million in total public construction and 60 million in private nonfarm residential was partially offset by a rise of 19 million in other11 private construction MILLIONS OF DOLLARS MILLIONS OF DOLLARS SOURCES DEPARTMENT OF C O M M E R C E AND DEPARTMENT OF LABOR Millions of dollars seasonally adjusted Period monthly average monthly average monthly average monthly average monthly average monthly average monthly average June 1951 monthly average March April May June July August September October November December January February MarchAprin i Includes public residential construction Preliminary estimates 1 Total new construction Private construction Total Residential Other nonfarm private Oil Source Department of Federal State and Department of Labor 17 NEW HOUSING STARTS New housing starts rose sharply in March to 98 000 units which was 27 percent above the February total was the largest number of starts since last June and 4 200 units more than in March a year ago THOUSANDS OF UNITS This THOUSANDS OF UNITS SOURCE DEPARTMENT OF LABOR COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS New nonfariri units started iviontn R f J t January February March April May June July August September October November December Total Monthly average Preliminary estimates Source Department of Labor 18 INVENTORIES AND SALES Business sales seasonally adjusted declined in March at the retail wholesale and manufacturing levels inventories showed little change BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS RETAIL TOTAL AND MANUFACTURING SEASONALLY ADJUSTED MONTHLY AVERAGE SEASONALLY ADJUSTED MONTHLY AVERAGE INVENTORIES v r x TOTAL INVENTORIES TOTAL SALES i960 PERCENT OF 1947 49 AVERAGE MANUFACTURING INVENTORIES MANUFACTURING SALES IJJJ III i960 I I I I II 1951 I I I I I I II II WHOLESALE MANUFACTURING AND RETAIL SOURCE DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE AND BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM Total business l Period Inventories 2 Sales 8 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS Manufacturing Retail Inventories 2 Sales 8 Inventories 2 f Millions of dollars seasonally adjusted June February March April May June July August September October November December 1952 January 7 7 February March mo Department stores Inven8 New tories s orders millions of Index dollars 4 seasonally adjusted Also includes wholesale not shown separately in this table Index of book value end of period except annual data which are averages of s Book value end of period Revised trade data not available prior to 1948 monthly figures 6 3 Monthly average for year and total for month Not available 1 Data for new orders not adjusted for seasonal variation Preliminary estimates Sources Department of Commerce and Board of Governors of the Federal Keserve System 19 MERCHANDISE EXPORTS AND IMPORTS In February exports of all classes of commodities except crude materials increased over January levels Total imports declined slightly but no more than could be explained by the shortness of the month On a working day basis imports of semimanufactured goods fell but other categories of imports rose MILLIONS OF DOLLARS MILLIONS OF DOLLARS J RECORDED MERCHANDISE EXPORTS INCLUDING REEXPORTS AND CSVSUAN SUPPLIES FOR OCCUPIED SJ RECORDED GENERAL MERCHANDISE IMPORTS SOURCES DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE DEPARTMENT OF THE ARMY AND DEPARTMENT OF THE NAVY COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS Millions of dollars Period monthly average monthly average 1946 monthly average monthly average 1948 monthly average monthly average monthly average June 1951 monthly average 1951 January February March April Mav June July August September October November December 1952 January February AAC J Exports Recorded merchandise exports including reexports and civilian supplies for occupied areas Recorded general merchandise imports NOTE Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding Sources Department of Commerce Department of the Army and Department of the Navy 3 20 Imports Excess of exports f imports S PURCHASING POWER NATIONAL INCOME In the first quarter of 1952 national income increased at an annual rate of 3 billion above the fourth quarter of last year Compensation of employees with the largest increase since the second quarter of last year rose at a rate of 3K billion while proprietors9 and rental income declined from the peak level reached in the fourth quarter of 1951 Other major components showed no significant changes BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 300 SEASONABLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATFS ANNUAL TOTALS TOTAL NATIONAL INCOME I949 SOURCE I960 DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE EXCEPT AS NOTED Billions of dollars Total national income Period Compensation of employees Proprietors1 business professional Net interest farm and rental income Corporate profits and inventory valuation adjustment Total Profits before taxes Inventory valuation adjustment Seasonally adjusted annual rates 1950 Third quarter Fourth quarter 1951 First quarter Second quarter Third quarter Fourth quarter 1952 First quarter i Estimates based on incomplete data by Council of Economic Advisers NOTE Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding Source Department of Commerce except as noted CORPORATE PROFITS In the first quarter of 1952 corporate profits before taxes were slightly above the fourth quarter of 1951 but were considerably below the peak reached a year ago according to preliminary estimates Corporate profits after taxes were virtually unchanged reflecting for the first time the full impact of the 1951 tax increase BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS SOURCE DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE EXCEPT AS NOTED Billions of dollars Corporate profits before taxes Period First quarter Second quarter Third quarter Fourth quarter 1951 First quarter Second quarter Third quarter Fourth quarter 1952 First Quarter Corporate tax liability Corporate profits after taxes Total Dividend payments iae Seasonally adjusted annual rates I a Undistributed profits i Estimates based on incomplete data by Council of Economic Advisers NOTE No allowance has been made for inventory valuation adjustment See p 21 for profits before taxes and inventory valuation adjustment Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding Source Departmsnt of Commerce except as noted PERSONAL INCOME The small drop in personal income for March primarily reflected lower proprietors1 income were unchanged dividends increased BILLIONS OF DOLLARS Salaries and wages BILLIONS OF DOLLARS SOURCE DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS Billions of dollars Total personal income Period June 1951 FebruaryMarch April May June July August September October November December 1952 January February March Proprietors income1 Labor income Dividends salaries Business wages and professional and personal Farm interest other labor and rental income 1 income R Seasonally adjusted annual rates Transfer payments Excludes employee contributions for social insurance and self employed contributions which became effective January 1952 Includes 2 7 billion National Service Life Insurance dividend most of which was paid in the first half of the year Preliminary estimates NOTE Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding Source Department of Commerce 23 CONSUMER INCOME SPENDING AND SAVING With expenditures for nondurable goods and services rising slightly in the first quarter of 1952 and disposable income declining a little personal saving fell somewhat below the very high levels prevailing during the previous 9 months BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 250 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 250 PERSONAL INCOME LESS TAXES J PRELIMINARY ESTIMATES BY COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS OURCE DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE EXCEPT AS NOTED COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS Disposable personal income l Period Less Personal consumption expenditures Total Durable goods Nondurable goods Services Equals Personal net saving Net saving as percent of disposable income Billions of dollars Seasonally adjusted annual rates 1950 Third quarter Fourth quarter 1951 First quarter Second quarter Third quarter Fourth quarter 1952 First quarter Income less taxes 2 Estimates based on incomplete data by Council of Economic Advisers NOTE Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding Source Department of Commerce except as noted 24 PER CAPITA DISPOSABLE INCOME Per capita disposable income in both current and constant prices declined in the first quarter of 1952 DOLLARS 1 600 ANNUAL AVERAGES SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES CURRENT PRICES I95O SOURCE DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE EXCEPT AS NOTED Total disposable personal income billions of dollars l Period Current prices Per capita disposable personal income dollars 1 Current prices 1951 prices prices Population thousands Seasonally adjusted annual rates 1950 Third quarter Fourth quarter 1951 First quarter Second quarter Third quarter Fourth quarter 1952 First Quarter l B iIncome less taxes Dollar estimates in current prices divided by the price index of personal consumption expenditures This price index was based on the Department of Commerce data shifted from 1939 base Provisional intercensal estimates of the population of the United States including Armed Forces overseas taking into account the final 1950 Census total population eount Annual data as of July 1 quarterly data centered in the middle of the period interpolated from monthly figures Estimates based on incomplete data by Council of Economic Advisers Source Department of Commerce except as noted 25 FARM INCOME In March farm income was about 2 percent higher than in February in both current and constant prices was far short of the February March gain in 1951 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 5 This rise BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 5 S O N G 1952 FARM INCOME IN CURRENT PRICES DIVIDED BY PARITY INDEX ON BASE I95l iu0 NOTE FARM INCOME INCLUDES CASH RECEIPTS FROM MARKETINGS AND GOVERNMENT PAYMENTS COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS SOURCE DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE Period 1939 monthly average 1941 monthly average 1944 monthly average 1946 monthly average 1948 monthly average 1949 monthly average 1950 monthly average June 1951 monthly average 1951 February March A Dril Mav June July August September October November December1952 January 3 February March 3 Parity index Farm income Farm income prices paid millions of millions of interest taxes current and wage rates 1951 dollars 2 dollars Converted from the reported base to the base Farm income in current dollars divided by parity index on base Preliminary estimates NOTE Farm income includes cash receipts from marketings and Government payments Source Department of Agriculture 26 CREDIT MONEY AND FEDERAL FINANCE BANK LOANS AND INVESTMENTS Bank loans rose during March at the same moderate rate as in February Investments expanded slightly as increased holdings of corporate and State and local securities more than offset declines in holdings of U S Government issues BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS ISO END J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A I 1950 OF YEAR M J J A S O N D J F M A 195 M J J A S O N D 195 END OF MONTH SOURCE BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE COUNCIL SYSTEM OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS Billions of dollars All commercial banks End of period June March April May June July August September October November December 1952 January February March 2 April Total loans and investments Investments Bank loans i Commercial industrial and agricultural loans NOTE Detail will not necessarily add to totals beowsp of rounding Total U S Government securities Other securities Weekly reporting member banks Business loans s Preliminary estimates Source Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System CONSUMER CREDIT Consumer credit outstanding declined about 150 million during March largely because of a reduction in charge accounts At the end of March total consumer credit was more than 1 billion or 5 percent below the December 1951 level BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS END OF YEAR 1951 END OF MONTH COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS SOURCE BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM Millions of dollars End of period June February March April May June July August September October November December 1952 January 3 February March 3 Instalment credit Total consumer credit outstanding Total instalment credit Sale credit Total Automobile sale credit Other sale credit Loans Charge accounts Other consumer credit Includes repair and modernization loans insured by Federal Housing Administration s Includes loans by pawnbrokers service credit and unclassified single payment Joans under 3 000 made by commercial banks Preliminary estimates NOTE Detail will not necessarily addjo totals because of rounding flpurce JBp rd of Governors of the Federal Reserve System 28 BOND YIELDS AND INTEREST RATES Yields on Treasury bills and corporate bonds and the rate on prime commercial paper fell slightly in April Reported yields on Government bonds showed a more substantial decline but part of the drop reflected a change in the issues included in the averages PERCENT PER ANNUM PERCENT PER ANNUM 1952 COUNCIL SOURCE BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS Percent per a n n u m U S Government security yields Period 3 month Treasurv bills Average June March April May June July August SeptemberOctober November December 1952 January February March April Rate on new issues within period 215 years and over prior to April years and over beginning in April 3 Bonds in this classification were first issued in March 1941 Source Board of Governors of the Federal Eeserve System Taxable bonds Corporate Aaa bonds Moody s Prime commercial paper 4 6 months MONEY SUPPLY The total money supply including Government deposits climbed 800 million during March However the privately held money supply decreased 500 million as tax payments resulted in a transfer of funds from private to Government balances BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 225 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 225 TOTAL DEPOSITS AND CURRENCY TOTAL EXCLUDING U S GOVERNMENT DEPOSITS PRIVATELY HELD MONEY SUPPLY DEMAND DEPOSITS ADJUSTED TIME DEPOSITS CURRENCY OUTSIDE BANKS U S GOVERNMENT DEPOSITS END OF YEAR 50 5i I A M J J A SO N O J F M A M J J A S O N D 1952 END OF MONTH SOURCE BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM Total deposits and currency End of period June February March April May June July August September October November December January February March COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS Billions of dollars Total excluding U S Government deposits U S privately held money supply Government Currency Demand l Time deposits Total outside deposits deposits3 banks adjusted Includes XJ S Government deposits at Federal Reserve banks and commercial and savings banks and U S Treasurer s time deposits open account 2 Includes demand deposits other than interbank and U S Government less cash items in process of collection Includes deposits in commercial banks mutual savings banks and Postal Savings System but excludes interbank deposits Preliminary estimates NOTE Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding Source Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System FEDERAL BUDGET RECEIPTS AND EXPENDITURES Budget expenditures in April rose to 6 0 billion or 50 percent more than in April 1951 On the receipts side there was a smaller than seasonal decline from March to April The cumulative budget deficit for the first 10 months of the current fiscal year was 5 0 billion compared to a cumulative surplus of 3 8 billion at the same time last year BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS TOTAL BUDGET EXPENDITURES NET BUDGET RECEIPTS FISCAL YEAR I952 X FISCAL YEAR I952 FISCAL YEAR 195I I O N O J F I M MAJOR NATIONAL SECURITY PROGRAMS A FISCAL YEAR I95I I M t l J A S O N D BUDGET SURPLUS J F M A OR DEFICIT M J M J MAGNIFIED SCALE FISCAL YEAR 1951 J I O N D J F M A FISCAL YEARS CUMULATIVE TOTALS SOURCES TREASURY DEPARTMENT AND BUREAU OF THE BUDGET COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS Billions of dollars Period Fiscal Fiscal Fiscal Fiscal Fiscal 1951 year 1939 year 1944 year 1948 year 1950 year 1951 February March April JLM CI jr Mav Jime July August September October November December 1952 January February March Auril Budget expenditures Net budget receipts Budget surplus or deficit Public Major national Total debt Cumulasecurity programs 1 Cumula Total for tive fiscal end of Cumula Total for Cumula Total for tive fiscal period period 2 Total for tive fiscal year tive fiscal period year totals period year totals period year totals totals o Includes expenditures for military services international security and foreign relations development and control of atomic energy promotion of the merchant marine and promotion of defense production and economic stabilization 2 Includes guaranteed securities except those held by the Treasury Preliminary estimates a Data for fiscal year not strictly comparable with monthly figures q NOTE Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding Sources Treasury Department and Bureau of the Budget FEDERAL CASH RECEIPTS FROM AND PAYMENTS TO THE PUBLIC The sharp seasonal rise in cash receipts in the first quarter of 1952 resulted in a large cash surplus However the surplus was less than three fourths as large as in the first quarter of last year Cash payments were 5 7 billion higher than a year ago while cash receipts were 3 8 billion higher There was a cumulative cash deficit of 0 6 billion in the first three quarters of the current fiscal year BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 1 25 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 25 CASH RECEIPTS C A S H PAYMENTS I950 EXCESS OF CASH RECEIPTS tl TJ EXCESS OF CASH PAYMENTS CALENDAR YEARS COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS SOURCE BUREAU OF THE BUDGET AND TREASURY DEPARTMENT Millions of dollars Federal cash receipts from the public Calendar year total Quarterly total not adjusted for seasonal variation 1949 Third quarter Fourth quarter 1950 First quarter Second quarter Third quarter Fourth quarter 1951 First quarter Second quarter Third quarter Fourth quarter 1952 First Quarter Federal cash payments to the public Calendar year f f450 f I f 6 874 Excess of receipts 4 or payments NOT Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding Sources Treasury Department and Bureau of the Budget 32 For sale by the Superintendent of Documents U S Government Printing Office Washington 25 D C Price 20 cents per copy 2 00 per year 2 50 foreign

Bond Yields and Interest Rates

DATE: May 1952

PART OF:

Economic Indicators : May 1952

AUTHOR:

Council of Economic Advisers (U.S.)

CONTRIBUTING AUTHORS:

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Council of Economic Advisers (U.S.) , United States. Congress. Joint Committee on the Economic Report, 1946-1956 and United States. Congress. Joint Economic Committee, 1956-. "Bond Yields and Interest Rates," in Council of Economic Advisers (U.S.) , United States. Congress. Joint Committee on the Economic Report, 1946-1956 and United States. Congress. Joint Economic Committee, 1956-. "May 1952," Economic Indicators (May 1952) : 32-32. https://fraser.stlouisfed.org/title/1/item/271/toc/231120 , accessed on December 13, 2019.

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Economic Data