Gross National Product

Name: Gross National Product
Creator: FRASER
Keywords: Economic Data, Economic indicators, Economic conditions, United States

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Economic Indicators Prepared for the Joint Committee on the Economic Report by the Council of Economic Advisers UNITED STATES GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE WASHINGTON JOINT COMMITTEE ON THE ECONOMIC REPORT Created pursuant to Sec 5 a of Public Law 304 79th Cong JOSEPH C O MAHONEY Wyoming Chairman EDWARD J HART New Jersey Vice Chairman JOHN J SPARKMAN Alabama PAUL H DOUGLAS Illinois WILLIAM BENTON Connecticut ROBERT A TAFT Ohio RALPH E FLANDERS Vermont ARTHUR V WATKINS Utah WRIGHT PATMAN Texas FRANK BUCHANAN Pennsylvania RICHARD W BOLLING Missouri JESSE P WOLCOTT Michigan CHRISTIAN A HERTER Massachusetts J CALEB BOGGS Delaware THEODORE J KREPS Staff Director GROVER W ENSLEY Associate Staff Director JOHN W LEHMAN Clerk COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS Created pursuant to Sec 4 a of Public Law 304 79th Cong LEON H KEYSERLING Chairman JOHN D CLARK ROY BLOUGH PUBLIC LAW 120 SlsT CONGRESS CHAPTER 237 IST SESSION JOINT RESOLUTION S J Res 55 To print the monthly publication entitled Economic Indicators Resolved by the Senate and House of Representatives of the United States of America in Congress assembled That the Joint Committee on the Economic Report be authorized to issue a monthly publication entitled Economic Indicators and that a sufficient quantity be printed to furnish one copy to each Member of Congress the Secretary and the Sergeant at Arms of the Senate the Clerk Sergeant at Arms and Doorkeeper of the House of Representatives two copies to the libraries of the Senate and House and the Congressional Library seven hundred copies to the Joint Committee on the Economic Report and the required number of copies to the Superintendent of Documents for distribution to depository libraries and that the Superintendent of Documents be authorized to have copies printed for sale to the public Approved June Charts drawn by Graphics Unit Office of the Secretary Department of Commerce Contents THE TOTAL OUTPUT OF THE ECONOMY Page The Nation s Economic Budget Gross National Product 1 2 PRICES Consumers Prices Wholesale Prices Prices Received and Paid by Farmers Stock Prices Civilian Labor Force Nonagrlcultural Employment Selected Industries Average Weekly Hours Selected Industries Average Hourly Earnings Selected Industries Average Weekly Earnings Selected Industries Work Stoppages ACTIVITY Industrial Production Weekly Production Selected Indicators Production of Selected Manufactures New Construction New Housing Starts Expenditures for New Plant and Equipment New Corporate Security Issues Inventories and Sales Merchandise Exports and Imports National Income Corporate Profits Personal Income Consumer Income Spending and Saving Personal Consumption Expenditures Per Capita Disposable Income Farm Income Consumer Credit FINANCE Bank Loans and Investments Money Supply Federal Cash Receipts From and Payments to the Public iii THE TOTAL OUTPUT OF THE ECONOMY THE NATION S ECONOMIC BUDGET Business investment increased sharply from 1st to 2nd half of 1950 chiefly as a result of inventory accumulation in 4th quarter Consumer expenditures in End half rose substantially above the early part of the year because of heavy buying in 3rd quarter BILLIONS OF DOLLARS ANNUAL RATES SEASONALLY ADJUSTED 50 100 i r I CONSUMERS H li iii i i i I960 FIRST HALF Transfer payments Iji liiHiii iiliiii lliii I960 SECOND HALF lyfei BUSINESS i i i iiiij i S j 1950 FIRST HALF 1950 SECOND HALF INTERNATIONAL 1950 FIRST HALF SECOND HALFp FIRST HALF SECOND HALF 25 EXCESS OF RECEIPTS EXPENDITURES FIRST HALF 1950 SECOND HALF O i J CONSUMERS i i i GOVERNMENT Federal state and local m 25 I i rj BUSINESS INTERNATIONAL I W T 1 TRANSFER PAYMENTS ARE INCLUDED IN RECEIPTS OR EXPENDITURES H OF THE SEPARATE ACCOUNTS BUT NOT IN THE TOTAL GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT NOTE SEE PAGE 2 FOR THE NATIONS ECONOMIC BUDGET TOTAL GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT SOURCE ECONOMIC REPORT OF THE PRESIDENT JANUARY 1951 APPENDIX C COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT Gross national product rising at an annual rate of almost 16J4 billion or nearly 6 between 3rd and 4th quarters of 1950 reached 300 billion according to revised estimates Business investment increased sharply because of inventory accumulation Government purchases of goods and services also rose while personal consumption expenditures dropped below their previous peak in 3rd quarter BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISER Billions of dollars Personal Government Total gross consump Gross private Net foreign purchases of national domestic tion expend investment investment goods and product itures services Period Annual rates seasonally adjusted 1949 First quarter Second quarter Third quarter Fourth quarter 1950 First quarter Second quarter Third quarterFourth quarter NOTE Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding 1950 data have been revised by the Department of Commerce on basis of more complete information See Survey of Current Business February 1951 for more detail Source Department of Commerce PRICES CONSUMERS PRICES Between November 15 and December 15 consumers prices recorded the largest monthly increase of This was due mainly to a rapid upsurge in food prices A special food survey indicates they continued to rise at almost the same pace between mid December and mid January PERCENT OF 1935 39 AVERAGE PERCENT OF 935 39 AVERAGE Z40 240 J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS SOURCE DEPARTMENT OF LABOR Period 1939 monthly average 1943 monthly average 1944 monthly average 1945 monthly average 1946 monthly average 1947 monthly average 1948 monthly average 1949 monthly average 1950 monthly average 1949 December January 15 February 15 March 15 April 15 May 15 June 15 July 15August 15 September 15 October 15 November 15 December January 15 All items Food i Apparel i Rent C1 1 Not available 2 A special survey indicates that food prices increased 0 2 percent between January 15 and laauary 2Q NOTE Prices are for moderate income families in large cities Fuel electricity and refrigeration i Housefurnishings C1 Miscellaneous C1 Source Department of Labor WHOLESALE PRICES Wholesale prices while slowing from their December pace continued to move up strongly throughout January During the four weeks ending January 30 farm prices rose 4 1 food prices 1 8 and industrial prices 1 4 PERCENT OF 1926 AVERAGE PERCENT OF 1926 AVERAGE I T i I i i i I i J F M A M J J A S 0 N DJ J F M A M J J A S O N O Period 1942 monthly average 1946 monthly average 1947 monthly aver age 1948 monthly aver age 1949 monthly average 1950 monthly average 1949 December 1950 January February March April May June July August September October November December 1951 January 1 Week ended 1951 January February 6 i Estimates based on change in weekly data Source Department of Labor Other than farm products and foods All commodities Farm products Foods PRICES RECEIVED AND PAID BY FARMERS A further rise of 5 in prices received by farmers in December brought the parity ratio to 110 PERC ENT OF 1910 14 AVERAGE PERCENT OF 1910 14 AVE RAGE PRICES RECEIVED s 200 Jf v 250 r J r r X PRIC ES PAID flNO 300 i f I sT 25O W JGE RATES 2OO PARITY RATIO v O i I 1 M 1 II II 1 1 I 1946 i l l II M i l l I I I I 1 O RCE DEPARTMENT 0 AGmcULTURE COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS Prices paid by Prices farmers including interest Parity ratio 1 received taxes and by farmers wage rates Period 1939 monthly average 1942 monthly average 1944 monthly average 1946 monthly average 1947 monthly average 1948 monthly average 1949 monthly average 1950 monthly average 1949 December January 15 February 15 March 15 April 15 May 15 June 15 July 15 August 15 September 15 October 15 November 1 5 December January Katio of index of prices received to index of prices paid interest taxes and wage rates Includes wartime subsidy payments paid on beef cattle sheep lambs milk and butterfat between October 1943 and June 1946 Source Department of Agriculture STOCK PRICES Stock prices moved steadily upward during January according to the new SEC composite index PERCENT OF 1939 AVERAGE 250 PERCENT OF 1939 AVERAGE SOURCE SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE COMMISSION Manufacturing Composite index Period Weekly average January February March April May June July August September October November December 1951 January Week ended 1951 January February Mining Durable goods Nondurable goods Total Transportation Utilities Trade finance and service Includes 264 common stocks distributed as follows 14 for mining 99 for durable goods manufacturing 72 for nondurable goods manufacturing 21 fo transportation 23 for utilities and 30 for trade finance and service 2 Data became available after chart was prepared Source Securities and Exchange Commission AND WAGES CIVILIAN LABOR FORGE The civilian labor force dropped by about one million to 61 5 million in January Both agricultural and nonogricuitural employment declined Unemployment increased by about 300 000 to 2 5 million These changes were largely seasonal MILLIONS OF PERSONS 70 MILLIONS OF PERSONS S yV rrri HI rw PERCENT 20 L 3YMENT AS PERCENT OF CIVILIAN LABOR FORCE 1944 liiililifcaiiii MM mm 1 1 pi 1 fo i j fe I i fr i SOURCE DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS Civilian labor force Employment 1 UnemTotal ployAgricul NonagriTotal ment tural cultural Thousands of persons 14 years of age and over Period 1939 monthly 1944 monthly 1947 monthly 1948 monthly 1949 monthly 1950 monthly average average average average average average 1949 December January February March April M a y June July August September October November December 1951 January Unemployment as percent of total civilian labor force Includes part time workers and those who had jobs but were not at work for such reasons as vacation illness bad weather temporary lay off and industrial disputes NOTE Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding Source Department of Commerce NONAGRICULTURAL EMPLOYMENT SELECTED INDUSTRIES Higher employment in nonagrieulturai industries in December was due to a seasonal increase of 500 000 in retail trade ond on increase of 340 000 Government employees largely temporary Post Office workers Manufacturing employment remained about the same MILLIONS OF WAGE AND SALARY WORKERS MILLIONS OF WAGE AND SALARY WORKERS NONDURABLE MANUFACTURING I I I I CONTRACT CONSTRUCTION o L Thousands of wage and salary workers Manufacturing Period Total 1939 monthly average 1943 monthly average 1946 monthly average 1947 monthly average 1948 monthly average 1949 monthly average 2 1950 monthly average 1949 November December 1950 January February March April Mav June Julv August September October 2 November 22 December NonduDurable goods rable goods Contract construction Trade Finance and service Government Federal State local Transportation and public utilities Mining Includes all full and part time wage and salary workers in nonagrieulturai establishments who worked or received pay during the pay period ending nearest the 15th of the month Excludes proprietors self employed persons domestic servants and personnel of the armed forces Total derived from this table not comparable with estimates of nonagrieulturai employment of the civilian labor force reported by the Department of Commerce p 7 which include proprietors selfemployed persons and domestic servants which count persons as employed when they are not at work because of industrial disputes and which are based on an enumeration of population whereas the estimates in this table are based on reports from employing establishments 2 Preliminary estimates Source Department of Labor 8 AVERAGE WEEKLY HOURS SELECTED INDUSTRIES The workweek in manufacturing industries during December averaged 41 6 hours the highest level since October 1945 The workweek in durable manufacturing increased by 0 6 to a of 42 5 lours There was a small increase in nondurable manufacturing in spite of seasonal in of frhe apparel industries HOUF S PER WEEK HOURS PER WEEK DURABLE MANUFACTURING NONDURABLE MANUFACTURING v l wn y V bt v w v S M LI I L L 1 1 1 L 1 1948 LLi 1 1 I LU LL 1949 I M i i ii 1 1 M l M 1948 II II 1 1 I II I 1 1 t 1 1 1 I 1950 RETAIL TRADE BUILDING CONSTRUCTION v k TX A J i i i i i 1i i i i i l 1 l t i l i 1 l 1 l l l l iiiii i i i ii 1947 l l 1 1 l I l I i 11i i i iiii 1949 1 l 1 M 1 I 11 1 I 1950 SOURCE DEPARTMENT OF LABOR Hours per week selected industries Manufacturing Period Durable goods Total 1939 monthly average 1943 monthly average 1946 monthly average 1947 monthly average 1948 monthlv average 1949 monthlv average 1950 monthly average 3 1949 November December 1950 January February March April May t June July August September October 3 November33 December J i For production and related workers Not available Nondurable goods Building construction Retail trade Preliminary estimates Source Department of Labor AVERAGE HOURLY EAFJNIJX Hourly earnings in durable manufacturing industries increase i by about 3 cents in December to reach almost 1 62 A similar gain in nondurable indust ries brou ght their hourly rate to about 1 45 DOLL RS PER HOUR 1 60 DOLL ARS PER HOUR DURABLE MANUFACTURING S NONDURABLE MANUFACTURING 1949 DOLLARS X x f f DOLLARS CURRENT DOLLARS I I 1 l 1 I I l 1I CURR ENT r GXtsf DOLLARS l i 1 I l 1l l 1950 BUILDING CONSTRUCTION y JJ LlJ ljJ lJ J JJ L LJLLl I I I i RETAI L TRADE DOLLARS LJJ J I LJ LL L L i M i i i i i i i S r K DOLLARS m f CURRENT DOLLAR s r CURRENT DOLLARS o lTl f I IMII o l Tl M 1 i 1 1 M J I jj uJU ijjj II 1 1 1 II II COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS Production and related workers in selected industries All manufacturing Period 1939 monthly average 1943 monthly average 1946 monthly average 1947 monthly average 1948 monthly average 1949 monthly average 1950 monthly average November December 1950 January February March April May June July August September October 3 November33 December 1 Durable goods manufacturing Nondurable goods manufacturing Retail trade Current 1949 Current 1949 dollars dollars dollars dollars l Current 1949 Current Current dollars dollars 1 dollars dollars 1 dollars dollars Current dollars divided by consumer s price index on base See note 3 to table on page 27 Not available 3 Preliminary estimates Source Department of Labor 10 Building construction M f C2 AVERAGE WEEKLY EARNINGS SELECTED INDUSTRIES Weekly earnings in durable goods manufacturing rose by 2 10 in December to reach 68 64 The increase in the nondurable goods segment was 1 37 These gains in earnings reflected both the lengthening of the workweek and widespread advances in wage rates DURABLE MANUFACTURING 60 V j A x Av rf f J i 55 RRENT w V rv DOLLARS 45 S CURRENT DOLLARS r I I M 1 1l i I 1 I M i r 1 1 i T l M f M M 195O BUILDING CONSTRUCTION MM RETAIL TRADE 1949 DOLLARS X N x 45 r J V t DOLLARS T CURRENT DOLLARS sf CURRENT DOLLARS I M 11 M 1 1I FV DOLLARS N X 1949 DOLLARS NONDURABLE MANUFACTURING g i i r I M Ml 0 MM M M M M I M M COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISORS Production and related workers in selected industries All manufacturing Durable goods manufacturing Nondurable goods manufacturing Building construction Retail trade Period Current 1949 Current 1949 Current 1949 dollars dollars dollars dollars 1 dollars dollars l 1939 monthly average 1943 monthly average 1946 monthly average 1947 monthlv average 1948 monthly average 1949 monthly average 1950 monthly average 3 1949 November December 1950 January February March April May June July August September October 3 November 33 December Current dollars divided by consumers price index on the base Not available Preliminary estimates Source Department of Labor Current Current 1949 dollars dollars 1 dollars dollars l I2 I See note 3 to table on page 27 3 11 WORK STOPPAGES Man days of idleness resulting from work stoppages dropped seasonally in December Brief railroad stoppages were the only major shutdowns MILLIONS OF MAN DAYS IDLE MILLIONS OF MAN DAYS IDLE 20 20 MONTHLY AVERAGE SOURCE DEPARTMENT OF LABOR Man days of idleness during period Period Monthly average thousands Workers involved in stoppages Beginning Percent of in estimated period working time thousands In effect during month thousands Number of stoppages Beginning in period In effect during month November December January 1 February March 1 Aprill1 May 1 June1 July August i September 1 October 1 1 November 1 December Preliminary estimates 2 Not available Source Department of Labor PRODUCTION AND BUSINESS ACTIVITY INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION A rise of 3 points in the index of industrial production in January brought it to a new postwar high which was almost 20 percent above the level of January I960 All components of the index increased PERCENT OF 1935 39 AVERAGE 400 O I I I PERCENT OF 1935 39 AVERAGE COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS SOURCE BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM seasonally adjusted Period 1943 monthly average monthly average 1947 monthly average monthly average 1949 monthly average 1 1950 monthly average December 1950 January February March April M a y June July August September October November December January T Preliminary estimates Total industrial production BManufactures Total Durable Nonduragoods able goods Minerals Source Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System 13 WEEKLY PRODUCTION SELECTED INDICATORS Weekly production of steel in January climbed steadily to new record levels topping 2 million tons per week for the first time in history the railroad work stoppage slowed production in early February Electric power output was close to the high levels reached in December Motor vehicles were assembled at about the same rate as in the previous month M LLIONS OF TONS 3 MILLIONS OF SHORT TONS DAILY AVERAGE 3 O BITUMINOUS COAL STEEL I v y 2 0 LT isso I951 f V I i K X AAv f i i i I i i i i i l l 1 0 BILL IONS OF KILOWATT HOURS i H If 1 I ELECTRIC POWER CARS AND TRUCKS ft r r fT jf X X M V A i M g HV 120 l V I I T l v fy 1 I i f l II j 1 1951 f f 1 l A 4 n f Al 95I i if 6 0 I THOU SANDS r o I 1 1 I I I L 1 Weekly average Week ended 1950 January Thousands of net tons February January February Percent of theoretical capacity 1 1 i I I w u u u EU St eel Period 1 Electric power Bituminous by utilities coal millions of thousands of kilowatt hours short tons Cars and trucks number i Based on weekly net ton capacity of for for for for the first half of beginning July and beginning January Daily average for week Preliminary estimates Data became available after chart was prepared Sources American Iron and Steel Institute Edison Electric Institute Department of the Interior and Ward s Automotive Reports 14 PRODUCTION OFSELEC3TED MANUFACTURES Output of most industries increased in December M achineo and petroleum and coal products showed the greatest increases P RC ENT OF AVERAGE ADJUSTED FOR SEASONAL VARIATION PERC ENT OF 1935 39 AVERAGE ADJUSTED FOR SEASONAL VARIATION 250 IRON A AT A s PETROLEUW AND COALv I t P R OC UCTS y s v f v Wf n n 1 1 i 11 iTi I Mil 1 0 L A A J X V HIM 1 1 n rr 1949 rj I 1 i I i l i i I I 1 l i i i s s s r j s x y MANUFACTURED FOOD PRODUCTS II J L T i i i i i i i n rr n i 40 S950 J X X sr X I 40 42 J N i i i i i H rr iii n in v A r r J L 250 V 100 V N i i i i i i i i i i l fTT L NONFERROUS METALS AND PROD JCTS J L H NERY A N n s M V i i i i i i i i n n T n i i i M H l t V s f J x IOO STEEL VS A B ER AND PRODUCTS yo T X II 1 1 1 II LM 1950 i seasonally adjusted Nondurable manufactures Durable manufactures Iron and steel Period 1943 monthly average 1946 monthly average monthly average 1948 monthly average 1949 monthly average 1950 monthly average 1 1949 November December 1950 January February March April May June July August September October November December l 1 Preliminary estimates Lumber and products Nonferrous Textiles and Machinery metals and products products Petroleum Manufac Chemical and coal tured food products products products Source Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System 15 NEW CONSTRUCTION Expenditures for new construction increased slightly during January Private residential construction was just above that for December A rise in other private construction was about balanced by the drop in government construction MILLIONS OF DOLLARS 2 500 ADJUSTED FOR SEASONAL VARIATION MILLIONS OF DOLLARS PRIVATE RESIDENTIAL NON FARM s OTHER PRIVATE FEDERAL STATE AND LOCAL SOURCES D E P A R T M E N T OF C O M M E R C E AND D E P A R T M E N T OF LABOR Millions of dollars seasonally adjusted Period Total new construction 1939 monthly average 1942 monthly average 1944 monthly average 1946 monthly average 1948 monthly average 1949 monthly average 1950 monthly average 1949 December 1950 January February March April Mav J CVJ June July August September October November December 1951 January 2 1 2 Includes public residential construction Preliminary estimates 16 Private construction Residential Total Other nonfarm private Federal State and local Sources Department of Commerce and Department of Labor NEW HOUSING STARTS New housing starts increased contraseasonally in December Almost 1 4 million houses were started in I960 about 3 more than in the previous record year 1949 THOUSANDS OF UNITS 200 THOUSANDS OF UNITS 200 F M A M SOURCE DEPARTMENT OF LABOR New nonfarm units started iviontn January February March April May June July August September October November December Total Monthly average 1 Preliminary estimates Source Department of Labor 17 EXPENDITURES FOR NEW PLANT AND EQUIPMENT Nonfarm plant and equipment expenditures have risen in each quarter of 1950 Businessmen reported in November that in the first quarter of this year outlays would exceed those of any previous first quarter and show an increase of 30 percent over the first quarter of 1950 LLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 25 ANNUAL TOTALS ANNUAL RATES TRANSPORTATION AND x ELEGTRIG AND GAS S S SLJ y TILITIES J S MANUFACTURING AND MINING J949 SOURCES SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE COMMISSION AND U S DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISER Millions of dollars annual rates not adjusted for seasonal variation Period Total i First quarter Second quarter Third quarter Fourth quarter First quarter Second quarter Third quarter Fourth quarter First quarter 3 Manufacturing Transportation Mining Railroad Other Electric and gas utilities Commercial and miscellaneous Excludes agriculture 2 Commercial and miscellaneous composed of trade service finance and communication Estimates forfourth quarter 1950 first quarter 1951 and year 1951 based on anticipated capital expenditure of business NOTE These figures do not agree with the totals included in the gross national product estimates of the Department of Commerce principally because the latter cover agricultural investment and also certain equipment and construction outlays charged to current expense Figures for 1939 44 are Federal Reserve Board estimates based on Securities and Exchange Commission and other data Detail will not necessarily add to totals because annual rates are based on quarterly figures rounded to the nearest Sources Securities and Exchange Commission and Department of Commerce except as noted 3 18 NEW CORPORATE SECURITY ISSUES Net proceeds from new security issues showed a large seasonal decline in 3rd quarter of the year About f of the total was for financing expansion in fixed and working capital the remainder for retirement of debt and stock BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 3 0 SOURCE BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 3 0 SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE COMMISSION Millions of dollars Proposed uses of net proceeds New money Estimated net proceeds Period Total 1939 quarterly average 1943 quarterly average 1946 quarterly average 1947 quarterly average 1948 quarterly average 1 949 quarterly average 1950 quarterly average 1948 Third quarter Fourth quarter 1949 First quarter Second quarter Third quarter Fourth quarter 1950 First quarter Second quarter Third quarter Fourth quarter Includes small amount for other purposes 2 Preliminary estimates Data became available after chart was prepared NOTE Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding Source Securities and Exchange Commission Plant and equipment Working capital Retirement of debt 1 and stock INVENTORIES AND SALES The book value of manufacturers inventories increased by almost i biUion seasonally adjusted to 33 8 billion in December and were almost 5 billion higher than at the end of 1949 Retail sales rose about 6 with the largest increase in durables BILL IONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS TOTAL AND RETAIL MANUFACTURING 20 60 MONTHLY AVERAGE A MONTHLY AVERAGE SEASONALLY ADJUSTED TOTAL INVENTORIES f INVENTORIES jr T TAL SALES W SALES SEASONALLY ADJUSTED A i f I f II II M1 1948 M M 1 1 1 n11 I PERC ENT OF AVERAGE V DEPARTMENT STORES 400 y MANUFACTURING INVENTORIE SALES r 20 Q f A MANUFACTU RING SALESX j j XT INVENTORIES 7 II 100 1 I 1 I I 1 1 1 I 1 1 II I 1 1 1 i 1i I II J 1 1 1 I COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS Total business l InvenSales 3 tories 2 Period Manufacturing Inventories 2 Sales 3 New orders 4 Retail InvenSales 3 tories 2 Millions of dollars seasonally adjusted November December 1950 January February March April May June July AugustSeptember October 7 November 77 December Department stores Tories seasonally adjusted Indexes computed from data on retail value of sales for month and retail 1 Total business includes manufacturing retail and wholesale not shown book value of inventories end of period Separately in this table e Not available 2 Book value end of period 7 Preliminary estimates 3 Monthly average for year and total for month 4 Data for new orders not adjusted for seasonal variation Sources Department of Commerce and Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System 20 MERCHANDISE EXPORTS AND IMPORTS In December exports increased another 8 continuing the rise which had begun in September With only a minor increase of imports the merchandise export surplus rose to 201 million MILLIONS OF DOLLARS MILLIONS OF 1 600 DOLLARS RECORDED GENERAL 1946 MERCHANDISE I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I 1949 IMPORTS SOURCES DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE DEPARTMENT OF THE ARMY AND DEPARTMENT OF THE NAVY Millions of dollars Exports 1 Period monthly average 1943 monthly average 1946 monthly average 1947 monthly average 1943 monthly average 1949 month lv average 1950 monthly average 1949 November December 1950 January February March ADTI Mav June July August September October November December Imports Excess of exports Recorded merchandise exports including reexports and civilian supplies for occupied areas Recorded general merchandise imports NOTE Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding Sources Department of Commerce Department of the Army and Department of the Navy 2 21 PURCHASING POWER NATIONAL INCOME Revised estimates of national income indicate a gain of less than 10 billion annual rate between 3rd and 4th quarters of I960 The rise resulted from increases of almost 7J4 billion in compensation of employees less than 1 billion in farm income and close to l billion in corporate profits BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS ANNUAL TOTALS il l I SOURCE DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE EXCEPT AS NOTED COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS Billions of dollars Compensation of employees Total national income Period Corporate profits and inventory valuation adjustment Proprietors business professional farm and rental income Net interest Total Profits before taxes Inventory valuation adjustment g Annual rates seasonally adjusted 1949 First quarter Second quarter Third quarter Fourth quarter 1950 First quarter Second quarter Third quarter Fourth quarter i Estimates based on incomplete data by Council of Economic Advisers NOTE Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding See note on p 2 22 Source Department of Commerce except as noted CORPORATE PROFITS Corporate profits for 4th quarter of I960 surpassed those of any previous period according to current estimates Before taxes they were more than lj billion annual rate higher than in 3rd quarter after taxes they were almost 1 billion more BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS J NO ALLOWANCE FOR INVENTORY VALUATION ADJUSTMENT PRELIMINARY ESTIMATES BY COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS SOUR ED Billions of dollars Corporate profits before taxes Period First quarter Second quarter Third quarter Fourth quarter First quarter Second quarter Third quarter Fourth quarter Corporate tax liability Corporate profits after taxes Total Dividend payments Undistributed profits Annual rates seasonally adjusted Estimates based on incomplete data fourth quarter by Council of Economic Advisers NOTE No allowance has been made for inventory valuation adjustment See p 22 for profits before taxes and inventory valuation adjustment Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding See note on p 2 Source Department of Commerce except as noted 23 PERSONAL INCOME Personal income advanced by almost 8 billion seasonally adjusted annual rate to over 240 billion m December Distribution of dividends accounted for most of the increase but all factors except transfer payments moved upward BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS SOURCE DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE Total personal income Period l November December 1950 January February March April May June July August September October November December Billions of dollars Proprietors income Labor income salaries Dividends Business wages and professional and personal Farm interest other labor and rental income income Annual rates seasonally adjusted Preliminary estimates 2 Includes 2 7 billion National Service Life Insurance dividend most of which was paid in the first half of the year NOTE Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding Source Department of Commerce 24 Transfer payments CONSUMER INCOME SPENDING AND SAVING Personal income after taxes continued to gain in 4th quarter while expenditures were revised downward As a result saving increased more sharply than earlier estimates indicated BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS SOURCE DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE First quarter Second quarter Third quarter Fourth quarter First quarter Second quarter Third quarter Fourth quarter Less Personal consumption expenditures Disposable personal income Period Equals Personal net saving Billions of dollars Annual rates seasonally adjusted Net saving as percent of disposable income Income less taxes NOTE Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding See note on p 2 Source Department of Commerce 25 PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES Consumption expenditures for durable goods in 4th quarter were about 4 billion annual rate below the level for 3rd quarter according to revised estimates Expenditures for nondurable goods were practically unchanged while those for services advanced moderately B I L L I O N S OF D O L L A R S B I L L I O N S OF DOLLARS ANNUAL RATES SEASONALLY ADJUS ANNUAL TOTALS TOTAL EXPENDITURESv i M t DURABLE GOODSj l g i i I I COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS Billions of dollars Personal consumption expenditures Period Nondurable goods Total Durable goods Services Annual rates seasonally adjusted 1949 First quarter Second quarter Third quarter Fourth quarter 1950 First quarter Second quarter Third quarter Fourth quarter NOTE Detail will not necessarily jadd to totals because of rounding See note on p 2 Source Department of Commerce 26 PER CAPITA DISPOSABLE INCOME Recent revisions of per capita disposable income show an increase of about 3 between 3rd and 4th quarters of I960 But with a price rise of almost 2 the purchasing power was only 1 higher DOLLA RS 1 600 D OLLARS 1 600 ANNUAL AVERAGES DOLLARS x f V t S r l t CURRENT DOLLARS I I I 1 I J sOURCES DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE AND DEPART ME NT OF LABOR Per capita disposable personal income 1 Current 1949 dollars2 dollars Consumers price index Not adjusted for seasonal variation Annual rates seasonally adjusted 1950 First quarter Second quarter Third quarter Fourth quarter O 1 COUNCIL OF EC GNOMIC ADVISERS Period 1949 First quarter Second quarter Third quarter Fourth quarter Income less taxes 2 Current dollars divided by the consumers price index on the base The consumers price index has been roughly adjusted to take account of the understatement from December 1941 February 1947 This adjustment is in line with the report of the Mitchell Committee The unadjusted index will be found on page 3 Sources Department of Commerce and Department of Labor 27 FARM INCOME Farm income in December 1950 was 9 higher than a year before But prices paid by farmers were 8 higher The real income of agriculture at the end of I960 was only slightly greater than at the end of 1949 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS I I I 42 LL10NS OF DOLLARS I 43 I 44 I 45 I I 48 I INCLUDES CASH FARM INCOME PROM MARKETING SOURCE DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE Period 1939 monthly average 1941 monthly average 1944 monthlv average monthly average 1947 monthly average monthly average monthly average monthly average 4 1949 November December 1950 January February March April May June Julv August September October November 4 December Farm income Prices paid by Farm income farmers incl millions of millions of interest taxes currentl and wage rates 1949 dollars 3 dollars QQ Includes cash farm income from marketings and Government payments 2 Converted from the reported base to the base Farm income in current dollars divided by prices paid by farmers interest taxes and wage rates Preliminary estimates Source Department of Agriculture 28 CONSUMER CREDIT Consumer credit outstanding after leveling off in November rose again during December but less than seasonally Instalment credit dropped about 85 million in November largely as a result of Regulation W and expanded moderately with other forms of consumer credit in December BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 25 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 25 J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D END OF MONTH SOURCE BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM JNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS Millions of dollars End of period November December 1950 January February March April May June July August September October November22 December Total consumer credit outstanding Instalment credit Total Automobile sale credit Other sale credit and loans Charge accounts Other consumer credit Includes loans by pawnbrokers service credit and single payment loans under 3 000 made by commercial banks The single payment loan item was revised in November to exclude loans over 3 000 See Federal Reserve Bulletin for November 1950 pages Preliminary estimates NOTE Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding Source Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System 29 MONEY BANKING AND FEDERAL FINANCE BANK LOANS AND INVESTMENTS Commercial bank loans continued to expand rapidly during December Total investments also increased BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 150 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS ISO END OF YEAR 1949 END OF MONTH Billions of dollars all commercial banks m j 0i loans and investments End of period l November December 1950 January February March April May June July August September October November December Bank loans i Preliminary estimates NOTE Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding Source Board of Governors of the Federal Eeserve System 30 Total Investments U S Government securities Other securities MONEY SUPPLY The privately held money supply reached a new high of 177 2 billion at the end of December 7 4 billion above the same period of 1949 Demand deposits expanded 2 5 billion during December 1950 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 200 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 200 TOTAL DEPOSITS AND CURRENCY EXCLUDING U S GOVERNMENT DEPOSITS END OF MONTH END OF Y E A R SOURCE BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM COUNCIL Or ECONOMIC ADVISER Billions of dollars End of period November December 1950 January February March April May June July August September October November December 4 Total privately held 1 money supply Currency outside banks Adjusted demand deposits Time deposits Includes deposits and currency held by State and local governments 2 Includes demand deposits other than interbank and U S Government less cash items in process of collection s Includes deposits in commercial banks mutual savings banks and Postal Savings System 4 Preliminary estimates NOTE Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding Source Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System 31 FEDERAL RECEIPTS FROM AND PAYMENTS TO THE PUBLIC In 4th quarter of I960 cash payments to the public exceeded receipts by 367 million In the corresponding quarter of 1949 payments were 1 5 billion in excess of receipts BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS CASH PAYMENTS J QKn 3 4 EXCESS OF CASH RECEIPTS U 1 EXCESS OF CASH PAYMENTS SOURCE BUREAU OF THE BUDGET A N D T R E A S U R Y DEPARTMENT Millions of dollars Federal cash receipts from the public Calendar year Calendar year total l Quarterly total not adjusted for seasonal variation 1947 Third quarter Fourth quarter 1948 First quarter Second quarter Third quarter Fourth quarter 1949 First quarter Second quarter Third quarter Fourth quarter 1950 First quarter Second quarter Third quarter 1 Fourth auarter Preliminary estimates based on incomplete data Sources Treasury Department and Bureau of the Budget Federal cash payments to the public Excess of receipts or payments NOTE Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding For sale by the Superintendent of Documents U S Government Printing Office Washington 25 D C Price 15 cents per copy 1 75 per year 2 25 foreign 32

Gross National Product

DATE: February 1951

PART OF:

Economic Indicators : February 1951

AUTHOR:

Council of Economic Advisers (U.S.)

CONTRIBUTING AUTHORS:

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Council of Economic Advisers (U.S.) , United States. Congress. Joint Committee on the Economic Report, 1946-1956 and United States. Congress. Joint Economic Committee, 1956-. "Gross National Product," in Council of Economic Advisers (U.S.) , United States. Congress. Joint Committee on the Economic Report, 1946-1956 and United States. Congress. Joint Economic Committee, 1956-. "February 1951," Economic Indicators (February 1951) : 5-5. https://fraser.stlouisfed.org/title/1/item/256/toc/294324 , accessed on December 14, 2019.

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Economic Data