Consumer Income, Spending, and Saving

Name: Consumer Income, Spending, and Saving
Creator: FRASER
Keywords: Economic Data, Economic indicators, Economic conditions, United States

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Economic Indicators JULY 1950 Prepared for the Joint Committee on the Economic Report by the Council of Economic Advisers UNITED STATES GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE WASHINGTON JOINT COMMITTEE ON THE ECONOMIC REPORT Created pursuant to Sec 5 a of Public Law 304 79th Cong JOSEPH C O MAHONEY Wyoming Chairman EDWARD J HART New Jersey Viti Qtairmm FRANCIS J MYERS Pennsylvania JOHN J SPARKMAN Alabama PAUL H DOUGLAS Illinois ROBERT A TAFT Ohio RALPH E FLANDERS Vermont ARTHUR V WATKINS Utah WRIGHT PATMAN Texas WALTER B HUBER Ohio FRANK BUCHANAN PennsyiYaaia JESSE P WOLCOTT Michigan ROBERT F RICH Pennsylvania CHRISTIAN A HERTER Massachusetts THEODORE J KBBPB Staff Director GIOVEB W EiratBT Aisoefati Staff Dtnttor JOHN W LBHMAK Chrk COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS Created pursuant to Sec 4 a of Public Law 304 79th Cong LEON H KEYSERLING Chairman JOHN D CLARK ROY BLOUGH PUBLIC LAW 120 81sT CONGRESS CHAPTER 237 IST SESSION JOINT RESOLUTION S J Res 55 To print the monthly publication entitled Economic Indicators Resolved by the Senate and House of Representatives of tbt United States of America in Congress assembled That the Joint Committee on the Economic Report be authorized to issue a monthly publication entitled Economic Indicators and that a sufficient quantity be printed to furnish one copy to each Member of Congress the Secretary and the Sergeant at Arms of the Senate the Clerk Sergeant at Arms and Doorkeeper of the House of Representatives two copies to the libraries of the Senate and House and the Congressional Library seven hundred copies to the Joint Committee on the Economic Report and the required number of copies to the Superintendent of Documents for distribution to depository libraries and that the Superintendent of Documents be authorized to have copies printed for sale to the public Approved June Charts drawn by Graphics Unit Office of the Secretary Department of Commerce 11 Contents THE TOTAL OUTPUT OF THE ECONOMY The Nation s Economic Budget Gross National Product Page 1 2 PRICES Consumers Prices Wholesale Prices Prices Received and Paid by Farmers Stock Prices EMPLOYMENT Labor Force Nonagricultural Employment Selected Industries Average Weekly Hours Selected Industries Work Stoppages PRODUCTION AND BUSINESS ACTIVITY Industrial Production Weekly Production Selected Indicators Production of Selected Manufactures New Construction New Housing Starts Expenditures for New Plant and Equipment New Corporate Security Issues Inventories and Sales Merchandise Exports and Imports PURCHASING POWER National Income Corporate Profits Personal Income Consumer Income Spending and Saving Personal Consumption Expenditures Per Capita Income Average Hourly Earnings Selected Industries Average Weekly Earnings Selected Industries Farm Income Consumer Credit MONEY BANKING AND FEDERAL FINANCE Bank Loans and Investments Money Supply Federal Cash Receipts From and Payments to the Public THE TOTAL OUTPUT OF THE ECONOMY THE NATION S ECONOMIC BUDGET The Nation s Economic Budget total in 1st quarter of I960 was about 3 percent above 4th quarter of 1949 according to revised estimates The payment of the National Service Life Insurance dividend to veterans resulted in a sharp rise in consumer disposable income 1949 4th TOTAL Quarter B LU S or DOLLARS EXPENO TU CE PTSW Gross National Product z56 yvQ v vQvv vQv 9 5v j xxxyyv CONSUMERS 0 r Transfer paymenUz fiiiiiiiiiiiiii iililiiiiiiiii l i j SUMER 173 e jii if SAVING BUSINESS litllllll272 EXCESS OF INVESTMENT INTERNATIONAL EXCESS OF RECEIPTS 1 03 I 0 5 GOVERNMENT Federal state and local rtlllllililllliiilllli 57 3 CASH 1DEFICIT I603 Tra nsfer payments I960 1st Quarter BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 17 TOTAL Gross National Product O C CONSUMERS Transfer payments i i i l SUMER j i l ifi a SAVING J y fiW m BUSINESS Ilill 265 lllll 411 EXCESS OF INVESTMENT INTERNATIONAL 3 EXCESS OF 1 RECEIPTS GOVERNMENT Federal state and local lllll llllll illltlllill M y W IS t ES SOURCE SEE ECONOMIC REPORT OF THE PRESIDENT JANUARY 1950 APPENDIX A COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC AOV SMS CASH DEFICIT GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT Total gross national product rose 7 2 billion annual rate in 1st quarter of 1950 Personal consumption expenditures were 2 9 billion higher Private investment increased 7 4 billion due to the peak rate of residential construction and a shift from inventory liquidation to accumulation Government purchases and net foreign investment decreased moderately BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS ISO SOURCE I DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE COUNCIL Of ECONOMIC ADVISERS Billions of dollars Total gross national product Period Personal consump Gross private Net foreign domestic tion expen investment investment ditures Government purchases of goods and services Annual rates seasonally adjusted Third quarter Fourth quarter 1949 First quarter Second quarter Third quarter Fourth quarter 1950 First quarter LO NOTE Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding Source Department of Commerce PRICES CONSUMERS PRICES Consumers1 prices rose in Moy moinly becouse of advances in food prices although rents and the miscellaneous group also increased slightly Other prices showed little change except fuels which declined substantially PERCi INT OF 1935 39 AVERAGE 220 MONTHLY AVERAGE PERCENT OF 1935 39 AVE RAGE 220 s Os V F O O D f APPAREL r i f S bLL 120 lOO f IS ITEMS RENTVX T I I 42 I 43 I I i i i i i 1 i i i j i I i I i i i i i i 1 i i i iT SOURCC DEPARTMENT OF LABOR 1950 COUNCIL Of ECONOMIC AOVISCKS Period 1940 monthly average 1941 monthly average 1942 monthly average 1943 monthly average 1944 monthly average 1945 monthly average 1946 monthly average 1947 monthly average 1948 monthly average 1949 monthly average 1949 April 15 May 15 June 15 July 15 August September 15 October 15 November 15 December January 15 February March IS April 15 May 15 All items Food NOTE Prices are for moderate income families in large cities Apparel Rent ioa Fuel electricity and refrigeration House furnishings Miscellaneous Source Department of Labor 3 WHOLESALE PRICES Wholesale prices were slightly higher in June than a month earlier Form product prices averaged slightly higher for the month Food prices were higher Industrial prices continued to advance moderately i PERCENT OF 1986 PERCENT OF 936 AVERAGE 200 AVERAGE LATEST DAT PLOTTED MQNTHtt JUNE W E E K L Y JULY 4 DEPAPTMiNT OF monthly average 1946 monthly average June monthly average 1948 monthly average 1949 monthly average I Other than farm products andfoods May June July August September October November December S O US January February March April May June Week ended 1950 June July Period Estimate based on incomplete clata All commodities Farm products Tbods wa Source Department ol Labor PRICES RECEIVED AND PAID BY FARMERS A rise of 2 points in prices received and a drop of 2 points in prices paid by formers from May 15 to June 15 raised the parity ratio to 99 just equal to the June 1949 ratio PERC ENT OF 1910 14 AVERAGE 350 PERCENT OF 1910 14 AVE RAGE 350 MONTHLY AVERAGE PRICES RECEIVED X r c yA i v PRICES PAID AND WAGE RATES 200 y f ISO ISO V j too 100 r r PARITY RATIO i I i I 47 1 i I 1 I 1 I M I M I 111 1I I 0 49 RATIO Of IHOex OF FHIceS HfCflVCO TO IHDCJC Of PHICCS PAIO MTCffCST Tttxes AND WAGE 1950 RJkTfS S Prices paid by Prices farmers includreceived ing interest Parity ratio taxes and by farmers wage rates Period 1 939 monthly average 1 942 monthly average 1944 monthly average monthly average 1946 monthly average 1 947 monthly average 1948 monthly average 1949 monthly average 1949 May 15 June 15 July 15August 15 September 15 October 15 November 15 December January 15 Februarv 1 5 March 15 April 15 May 15 June Ratio of index of prices received to index of prices paid interest taxes and wage rates Includes wartime subsidy payments paid on beef cattle sheep lambs milk and butterfat between October 1943 and June Source Department of Agriculture STOCK PRICES After reoching new peok levels in June the Korean development caused stock prices to break sharply wiping out most of the gains since April PERCENT OF 1935 39 AVE RAGE PERC ENT OF 1935 39 AVERAGE ITS i 175 WEEKtr AVERAGE WEEKLY AVERAGE I ISO INDUSTRIALS TLVV vA A r V i V w s ffi ISO r N RAILROADS 5 Xl S 1 0I Jfj hA rY i I A too A r COMPOSITE INDEX f j T Vf t m IOO M tffi v 75 w V L 1 I 1I I I I I 1 1 I I I I I II I I I J 1949 SOURCE STANDARD AND POOR S CORPORATION I 1 0 I960 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC AOVI1CRS Composite index l Period Weekly average May June July August September October November December January February March ApriL May June Week ended 1950 June July Industrials Railroads Utilities Composite index prior to June was based on 402 common stocks and inclnded 354 industrials 20 railroads and 28 utilities thereafter 416 common stocks are represented with 365 industrials 20 railroads and 31 utilities 2 Data became available after chart was prepared Source Standard Poor s Corporation EMPLOYMENT LABOR FORCE Civilian employment of 61 5 million in June was a record high for the month of June Agricultural employment increased by about 1 million from May to June and nonagricultural employment by 34 million Unemployment was j 3 million higher because of school age persons seeking summer jobs unemployment among adult workers continued to decline MILLIONS OF PERSONS MILLIONS OF PERSONS 70 UNEMPLOYMENT M v v v v Ml 1 wi W y y Iv T r v f f r 5 f t Vi j r Vr J j NONAGR CULTURAL EMPLOYMENT V i t i v x r fTf r Tt ri v r V C v v K V v i r vf pl H r r x r r J rt 4c vf t r v H t j f l V y l i i 1 i l i i 1 2O IIMTR IDI AYMTMT f f J i yt VV r r Tl y v r V v vr rT ivr f iX1 i i i r v t i l l f i i PERCENT n PERCENT ZQ DTDrTMT HF riUI 1 l A f U 1 rtFtflR mPPP B p3 f o 1939 i iij j i i tj Total labor force including armed forces Period monthly monthly monthly monthly monthly average average average average average 1949 May June July August September October November December 1950 January February March April May June m Sffl rt fflrtB S 1 i i i i i i Wi SMSiSiS S 1948 MONTHLY AVERAGE T s V 5 V x f rjf i i V l i l v f VA g i rf v H t c A v v V I v r f v i A i v i r i 1 f ll r lv W i t v t i x AGRICULTURAL EMPLOYMENT 2 yfiwwffiwffifflw w r r fORCE ssssfefc H i w w Wk LftBOR fi A P ff fe f r T 30 g m m i l 60 TOTAL 949 Total Armed civilian forces labor force Thousands of persons Civilian labor force Employment l Agricul NonagriTotal tural cultural Unemployment Unemployment as percent of total civilian labor force 14 years of age and over i Includes part time workers and those who had jobs but were not at work for such reasons as vacation illness bad weather temporary lay off and industrial disputes NOTE Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding Source Department of Commerce NONAGRICULTURAL EN IPLC3YMENT SELECTED INDUSTRIES Employment in durable goods manufacturing increased by about 200 000 in May Employment in contract construction again reached an all time high for the m Dnth MILL IONS OF WAGE AND SALARY WORKERS M1LLI ONS OF WAGE AND SALARY WORKERS DURABLE MANUFACTURING 8 5 cw NONDURABLE MANUFACTURING 7 5 r fVi o ry Vrv X r UsCU li M S 7 0 O iQ g I J 1 F 1 M 1 A I M 1 J J 1 A I S i O 1 N D 1 J 3 0 1 F 1 M 1 1 A 1 M J 1 J 1 1 A S 1 O I N O 10 5 TRADE CONTRACT CONSTRUCTION 19 j ii L i i M I948v Sr ff J V x xL f 1 rt y J 1 1 F 1 M 1 A 1 M 1 J J 1 A 1 S 1 O 1 N 1 o l D J i 1 F I M 1 A i M 1 J SOURCE DEPARTMENT OF LABOR 1 4 1 A 1 S i O 1 N O COUNCIL Or ECONOMIC ADVISERS Thousands of wage and salary workers J Manufacturing Period Total 1939 monthly average 1943 monthly average 1946 monthly average 1947 monthly average 1948 monthly average 1949 monthly average 1949 April May June Jxilv August Septem her October November December 1950 Januarv Febrnarv March 8 April 33 Mav Contract construcDurable Nondurtion goods able goods Trade Finance and service Government Federal State local Transportation Mining and public utilities Includes all full and pait time wage and salary workers in nonagricultural establishments who worked or received pay during the pay period ending nearest the 15th of the month Excludes proprietors self employed persons domestic servants and personnel of the armed forces Total derived from this table not comparable with estimates of nonagriculttiral employment of the civilian labor force reported by the Department of Commerce p 6 which include proprietors selfemployed persons and domestic servants which count persons as employed when they are not at work because of industrial disputes and which are based on an enumeration of population whereas the estimates in this table are based on reports from employing establishments 3 Not available Preliminary estimate Source Department of Labor 8 AVERAGE WEEKLY HOURS SELECTED INDUSTRIES The workweek in nondurable manufacturing recovered part of its April decline due to a seasonal expansion in food processing industries and substantial overtime in the rubber products industry it was stilt almost 2 hours less than the workweek in durables HOU S PER WEEK HOURS PER WEEK DURABLE MANUFACTURING NONDURABLE MANUFACTURING SS A v j40 38 S sS i i i i i i I II 1 1 1 M 11 i ii i i i ii i it i i i t i1 i 1 1 ii V 1 I 1 I I t i i i 1 i 1 1 ii RETAIL TRADE BUILDING CONSTRUCTION S s S s y v l V 34 c V i i i i i t i t it 1947 I i i 1 I 1 I 1 i I I t I 0 I 1 1 i i i 1 i i i ii I 1 1 II I t I i SOURCE DEPARTMENT OF LABOR 1950 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS Hours per week selected industries Manufacturing Period 1939 monthly average 1943 monthly average 1946 monthly average 1947 monthly average 1948 monthlv average 1949 monthly average April May June July August September October November December1950 January February March 8 April 3 Mav s Total For production an4 related workers Durable goods R iiil rJ ivirr jDUHuing Nondurable construction goods a 40 fi Not available Retail trade Preliminary estimate Source Department of Labor 9 WORK STOPPAGES The 150 000 drop in man days of idleness was largely due to the end of the Chrysler strike in May The number of workers involved increased because of a 6 day stoppage by 150 000 railway firemen MILLIONS OF MAN DAYS IDLE ZQ MILLIONS OF MAN DAYS IDLE 20 MONTHLY AVERAGE I SOURCE DEPARTMENT OF LABOR Man days of idleness during period Beginning Monthly Percent of in estimated average period thousands working time thousands Period April May June July August September October November December 1950 January February March April i Mav l Preliminary estimate 10 Workers involved in stoppages In effect during month thousands Number of stoppages Beginning in period In effect during month Source Department of Labor PRODUCTION AND BUSINESS ACTIVITY INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION Industrial production reached a new postwar record in June about I percent higher than the peak of October November 1948 and 17 percent above the level of June 1949 PERCENT OF 1935 39 AVERAGE PERCENT OF 1935 39 AVERAGE 400 I 1 I I I O SOURCE BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM COUNCIL OF tCONOMIC ADVISERS seasonally adjusted Total industrial production Period 1943 monthly average 1946 monthly average monthly average 1948 monthly average 1949 monthly average April May June July August September October November December 1950 January February March April May 1 June 1 Preliminary estimate Bklanufaeture s Total Durable goods Nondurable goods Minerals Source Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System 11 WEEKLY PRODUCTION SELECTED INDICATORS The steel industry continued to operate above stated capacity levels throughout June Automobile production was more than 10 percent above the peak output for May Electric power production was at a new high Bituminous coal mining increased MILLIONS BILLIONS OF KILOWATT OF TONS HOURS STEEL MILLIONS OF SHORT TONS THOUSANDS I S SOURCES AMERICAN IRON AND STEEL INSTITUTE EDISON ELECTRIC INSTITUTE DEPARTMENT OF THE INTERIOR WARD S AUTOMOTIVE REPORTS St eel Period Weekly average Thousands of net tons Week ended 1949 June July June July Percent of theoretical capacityl I N J O COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS Electric power by utilities millions of kilowatt hours Bituminous coal thousands of short tons a Cars and trucks number Based on weekly not ton capacity of for for for 1949 and for 1950 Daily average for week Sources American Iron and Steel Institute Edison Electric Institute Department of the Interior and Ward s Automotive Reports 12 O PRODUCTION OF SELEC TED MANUFACTURES llidustries with increased output in May included iron and stee l machinery textiles petroleum and coal products and chemical products Decreases were reg istered for the groups lumber and products and nonferrous metals and products PERC ENT OF 1935 39 AVERAGE PERC ENT OF 1935 39 AVERAGE IRON A NO A x Y y f vf k i 150 V v sT n v I i t f I i UiiiiliMjT x r 20O NONFjERROUS METALS AND PROD TS i rr J 1 1 I 1 i i 1 iJ w v x xs i SX f MANUFACTURED s s s FOOD PRODUCTS JL L J L rr i i i i i i i i n nr i i rri PRODUCTS y f ol i i i i i i i i i n lii i i i i i i f i Vv ISO I 250 X N m i c AL I H NERY N h 350 ISO 1 L J n i i i i i i i n 77 M i MI r r V V A s s f AND PRODUCTS too 1 N V PETROLEUN AND COAL PFOC UCTS y I f SOURCE BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM seasonally adjusted Durable manufactures Period Iron and steel 1943 monthly average 1946 monthly average 1947 monthly average 1948 monthly average 1949 monthly average 1949 April May June Julv AugustSeptember October November December 1950 January February March April 1 May i Preliminary estimate Nondurable manufactures Nonferrous Textiles Lumber and Machinery metals and and products products products Petroleum Manufacand coal tured food products products Chemical products Source Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System 13 NEW CONSTRUCTION The expansion in new construction continued in June when it was 20 percent above a year earlier The rise was pronounced in all categories MILLIONS OF DOLLARS i Ii Ii i 1 000 I p f W Ii INCLUDES fUfUC HeHOfHri4i GOHSTRUCTIQM SOURCES DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE AND DEPARTMENT OF LABOR COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS Millions of dollars Period 1939 monthly average 1942 monthly average monthly average 1946 monthly average 1947 monthly average monthly average 1949 monthly average 1949 May June July August September October November December 1950 January February March April May June 2 Total new construction Private construction Total Residential Other private n on farm Federal State and local Includes public residential construction Sources Department of Commerce and Department of Labor2 Preliminary estimate NOTE Construction data have been revised See May 1960 Supplement to Construction and Construction Materials The chart has not yet been revised to take account of the revisions 14 NEW HOUSING STARTS May recorded a further sharp advance in housing starts with a new all time record of During the first 5 months of I960 there were 537 600 starts compared with 353 500 during the some period of 1949 THOUSANDS OF UNITS 300 THOUSANDS OF UNITS D SOURCE DEPARTMENT OF LABOR COUHCIL Or ECOHOHlC ADV1SIB3 New nonfarm units started January February March April Mav June July August September October November December Total Monthly average i Preliminary estimate Source Department of Labor 15 EXPENDITURES FOR NEW PLANT AND EQUIPMENT Plant and equipment expenditures by nonogricultural business firms rose more than seasonally in 2nd quarter of 1950 and were only 3 percent below the level of a year previous Outlays in 2nd quarter by manufacturing companies and gas and electric utilities were considerably higher than the same quarter last year BILLIONS OF DOLLARS E BILLIONS OF DOLLARS CSTlHfTIS MSfO OH PLJtftg ItftVKTCO IH lUff 1990 SOURCES SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE COMMISSION AND u s DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE COUNCIL Of ECONOMIC ADVISERS Millions of dollars annual rates not adjusted for seasonal variation Period Manufacturing Mining Transportation Railroad Other Electric and Commercial gas utilities and miscellaneous J Third quarter Fourth quarter 1949 First quarter Second quarter Third quarter Fourth quarter First quarter 3 Second quarter Total i Excludes agriculture 2 Commercial and miscellaneous composed of trade service finance and communication s Figures foi second quarter of 1950 are based on anticipated capital expenditures reported in the May 1950 survey NOTE These figures do not agree with the totals included in the gross national product estimates of the Department of Commerce principally because the latter cover agricultural investment and also certain equipment and construction outlays charged to current expense Figures for 1939 44 are Federal Reserve Board estimates based on Securities and Exchange Commission and other data Detail will not necessarily add to totals because annual rates are based on quarterly figures rounded to the nearest Sources Securities and Exchange Commission and Department of Commerce except as noted 16 NEW CORPORATE SECURITY ISSUES New corporate security issues during 1st quarter of this year ro se above the seasonally high 41h quarter rate and were substantially above 1st quarter of last year Most of the additional proceeds from the larger security issues were used for retirement of debt and stock BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 3 O SOURCE SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE COMMISSION Millions of dollars Proposed uses of net proceeds Estimated net proceeds Period New money Plant and equipment Total 1939 quarterly average 1943 quarterly average 1946 quarterly average 1947 quarterly average 1948 quarterly average 1949 quarterly average 1948 First quarter Second quarter Third quarter Fourth quarter 1949 First quarter Second quarter Third quarter Fourth quarter 1950 First quarter Working capital Retirement of debt and stock Includes small amount for other purposes NOTE Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding Source Securities and Exchange Commission 17 INVENTORIES AND SALES Manufacturers sales rose sharply in May to a new postwar peak The increase in overall retail sales was moderate Department store sales declined slightly Manufacturers inventories also reported a substantial gain BILL IONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS TOTAL AND MANUFACTURING 60 RETAIL 20 SEASONALLY ADJUSTED MONTHLY AVERAG SEASONALLY AC JUSTED MONTHLY AVERAGE A INVENTORIES i j TOTAL NVENTORIEsV f SALES j TO 40 TAL SALES M M I 1 1 II K A TWV A II II PERC ENT OF AVERAGE DEPARTMENT STORES II 1948 SEASONALLY ADJUSTED MONTHLY AVERAGE 1 N MANUFACTUR NG INVENTORIES SALES ft f T MANUFACT JRIN6 SALES i i i i i i i i i INVENTORIES j j J too I II I 1U It i x M I N I U M i 1 1 I 1 1 II 1 i 1 1 1 1 i 1 1 11I WHOLESALE MANUFACTURING AND RETAIL SOURCE DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE AND BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM Total business l InvenSales 3 tories 2 Period COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC M anuf aeturi ng Inventories 2 Sales 3 New orders 4 Retail InvenSales 8 tories 2 Millions of dollars seasonally adjusted April May June July August September October November December 1950 January February 7 March 7 April 7 Mav Total business includes manufacturing retail and wholesale not shown separately in this table 2 Book value end of period 2 Monthly average for year and total for month Data for new orders not adjusted for seasonal variation 18 ADVISERS Department stores InvenSales5 tories s seasonally adjusted Indexes computed from data on retail value of sales for month and retail book value of inventories end of period e Not available Preliminary estimates Sources Department of Commerce and Board of Governors of the Feq eral Reserve System MERCHANDISE EXPORTS AND IMPORTS Imports rose sharply in May again approaching peacetime peaks in dollar value Since exports rose only ts slightly the merchandise export surplus was cuj MILLIONS OF DOLLARS 1 600 MILLIONS OF DC LLARS 1 600 MONTHLY AVERAGES I I 1 0 J50 VILIAN SUPPLIES FOR OCCUPIED AR RECORDED MERCHANDISE EXPORTS INCLUDING REEXPORTS I 1949 RECORDED GENERAL MERCHANDISE IMPORTS OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS SOURCES DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE DEPARTMENT OF THE ARMY AND DEPARTMENT OF THE NAVY Millions of dollars Exports Period monthly average 1943 monthly average 1946 monthly average 1947 monthly average monthly average 1949 monthly average 1949 April May June July August September October November December 1950 January February March April May Imports Excess of exports Recorded merchandise exports ineloding reexports and civilian supplies lor occupied areas 2 Recorded general merchandise imports Sources Department of Commerce Department of thw Army and Department of the Navy 19 PURCHASING POWER NATIONAL INCOME Notional income after declining during each quarter of 1949 turned up in 1st quarter of 1950 according to preliminary data The increase represented a rise in all major components except interest BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 250 ANNUAL RATES SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL TOTALS TOTAL NATIONAL INCOME E CORPORATE PROFITS AND M INVENTORY VALUATION ADJUSTMENT i i 1947 P R E L I M I N A R Y ESTIMATES Billions of dollars Total national income Period Corporate profits and inventory valuation adjustment Compensation of employees Proprietors business professional farm and rental income Net interest Total Profits before taxes Inventory valuation adjustment Annual rates seasonally adjusted 1948 Third quarter Fourth quarter First quarter Second quarter Third quarter Fourth quarter First quarter l Preliminary estimates 2 Estimates by Council of Economic Advisers based on incomplete data NOTE Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding 20 Source Department of Commerce except as noted CORPORATE PROFITS Profits in 1st quarter of I960 were the highest since the 4th quarter of 1948 Preliminary indications are that profits rose in 2 nd quarter BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS NO ALLOWANCE COUNCIL OF CCONOMiC ADVISERS SOURCE Billions of dollars Corporate profits before taxes Period Third quarter Fourth quErter 1949 First quarter Second quarter Third quarter Fourth quarter 1950 First quarter Corporate tax liability Total Dividend payments Annual rates seasonally adjusted Undistributed profits Estimates by Council of Economic Advisers based on incomplete dnta NOTE No allowance has been made for inventory valuation adjustment adjument Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding Corporate profits after taxes See p 20 for profits before taxes and inventory valuation Source Department of Commerce except as noted 21 PERSONAL INCOME Personal income dropped 6 billion annual rate from March to April I billion less than the drop in transfer payments Salaries and wages advanced proprietors income declined BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS DENDS AND INTEREST J A S O N D SOURCE J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N DI J F M A M J COUNCiC OF CCONOMIC ADVISERS DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE fRillions of dollars Total personal income Period April May June July August September October November December 1950 January February March April i 216 9 Proprietors1 business Salaries wages professional Dividends and other and personal farm labor income and rental interest income Annual rates seasonally adjusted Transfer payments U i Includes veterans insurance dividend 5 4 billion annual rate or 450 million monthly total in January 9 5 billion annual rate 800 million monthly total in February 10 6 billion annual rate 887 million monthly total in March and 4 1 billion annual rate 345 million 2 monthly total in April Preliminary estimate NOTE Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding Source Department of Commerce 22 CONSUMER INCOME SPENDING AND SAVING Payment of the special insurance dividend to veterans during 1st quarter in 1950 distorted disposable personal income It accounted for of the increase of 11 billion annual rate Expenditures increased by only 3 billion indicating that the insurance dividend was being spent slowly Correspondingly consumer saving was temporarily high BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS PERSONAL INCOME LESS TAXES SOURCE DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS Disposable personal income 1 Period Third quarter Fourth quarter 1949 First quarter Second quarter Third quarter Fourth quarter 1950 First quarter i Income less taxes NOTE Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding Less Personal Equals PerNet saving as consumption sonal net percent of disexpenditures saving posable income Billions of dollars Annual rates seasonally adjusted Source Department of Commerce 23 PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES Personal consumption expenditures in first quarter of 1950 were I percent above the peak rate of 4th quarter of 1948 according to revised estimates BILLIONS OF DOLLARS EOO SOURCE BILLIONS OF DOLLARS ZOO DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE COUNCIL Or ECONOMIC A D V I S E R S Billions of dollars Personal consumption expenditures Period Nondurable goods Total Durable goods Services Annual rates seasonally adjusted 1948 Third quarter Fourth quarter 1949 First quarter Second quarter Third quarter Fourth quarter 1950 First quarter NOTE Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding 24 Source Department of Commerce PER CAPITA INCOME Per capita disposable income including veterans insurance dividend increased in first quarter of 1950 both in terms of current dollars ond in real purchasing power Without the dividend there was no increase DOLLARS DOLLARS ANNUAL RATES SEASONALLY ADJUSTED DOLLARS CURRENT DOLLARS SOURCE DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE AND DEPARTMENT OF LABOR Period PERSONAL INCOME LESS taxes Third quarter Fourth quarter 1949 First quarter Second quarter Third quarter Fourth quarter First quarter I COUNCIL Of ECONOMIC ADVISEMS Per capita disposable personal income Current 1948 dollars8 dollars Annual rates seasonally adjusted Consumers price index sas Not adjusted for seasonal variation J Income less taxes Current dollars divided by the consumers price index on the base The consumers price index has been roughly adjusted to take account of the understatement from December 1941 February 1947 This adjustment is in line with the report of the Mitchell Committee The unadjusted index will be found on page 3 Sources Department of Commerce and Department of Labor 25 AVERAGE HOURLY EAE NIN GS SELECTED INDUSTRIES Hourly earnings in manufacturing reached a new peak of l 4 1 in May with increases in both durable and nondurable industries DOLL RS PER HOUR DOLL ARS PER HOUR DURABLE MANUFACTURING NONDURABLE MANUFACTURING DOLLARS J s di O x A DOLLARS x XX p J CURRENT DOLLARS S CURRENT DOLLARS rl l i 1 1 1 1 i IJ LII L i i i i i 1 i i i i i MMlllMlT I95O I 3O 2 10 BUILDING CONSTRUCTION RETAIL TRADE x DOLLARS 1 3 O f J f I IO 1 948 DOLLARS J S i ao CURRENT DOLLARS I OO CURRENT DOLLARS i 1 I 1Hl 1947 M l i t it I I 111 11 i I95O 0 f 1 J l I 1 1 J 1 I 1 i I I 1 i J J J l U SOURCE DEPARTMENT OF LABOR I M COUNCIL OP ECONOMIC ADVIStMS Selected industries All manufacturing Period 1939 monthly average 1943 monthly average 1946 monthly average 1947 monthly average 1948 monthly average 1949 monthly average 1949 April May June July August September October November December 1950 January February March 4 April44 May Nondurable goods manufacturing Building construction Retail trade Current Current Current 1948 Current 1948 Current 1948 dollars dollars 2 dollars dollars 3 dollars dollars a dollars dollars 2 dollars dollars Production and related workers 2 Not available 26 Durable goods manufacturing L Current dollars divided by consumers price index on base See note 3 to table on page 25 Preliminary estimates Source Department of Labor AVERAGE WEEKLY EAFiNIN GS SELECTED INDUSTRIES Weekly earnings in manufacturing industries continued to rise or the sixth consecutive month reaching a record figure of 57 50 in May The major increasej came i n the nondurable segment where weekly earnings increased by 73 as the length of the wor week in creased DOL LARS 60 DOL LARS PER WEEK 65 NONDURABLE MANUFACTURING DURABLE MANUFACTURING DOLLARS PER WEEK r X i DOLLARS f X t a CURRENT DOLLARS V x N CURRENT DOLLARS I 1948 I i 1 11 I i j I 1 1i 1I i i hilll i i 1 1 i i i LJL L BUILDING CONSTRUCTION RETAIL TRADE N DOLLARS x i Z y r N DOLLARS Sv 65 A M CURRENT DOLLARS V J 35 s CURRENT t OLLARS l i l l j ii I i i i i i 1947 i j i i i 1 1 i 1 l 1 t 1 i l t l l l i 0 i i i l i 1l l i i i II i 1 1 1 1 i iT 1949 i i i il 1 i l i I95O COUNCIL All manufacturing Period May January February March 4 April 44 May production and related workers Not available Retail trade June July August September October November December i 1 For Building construction ECONOMIC ADVISORS 1948 Current Current Current Current 1948 Current 1948 dollars dollars 2 dollars dollars 2 dollars dollars 2 dollars dollars 2 dollars dollars 2 monthly average monthly average monthly average monthly average monthly average monthlv average 1949 April Selected industries Durable goods Nondurable goods manufacturing manufacturing OF 2 4 Current dollars divided by consumers price index on the base See note 3 to table on page 25 Preliminary estimates Source Department of Labor 27 FARM INCOME Cosh receipts from form marketings in May were 7 percent below May 1949 Prices paid by farmers averaged the same as last year BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 4 nl I I I 41 I 42 I 43 I 44 I 45 I 46 I I 4 SOURCE DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE 1939 monthly average 1941 monthly average 1 942 monthly average 1944 monthly average 1945 monthly average 1 946 monthly average 1947 monthly average 1948 monthly average 1949 monthly average January February March 4 April4 May AugUSt September October November December I I by Farm income Prices paid el farmers in Farm income millions of interest taxes millions of current and wage rates 1948 dollars 2 dollars I COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS Period 1949 April May June July I i Includes cash farm income from marketings and Government payments 3 Converted fromthe reported base to the base Farm income in current dollars divided by prices paid by farmers interest taxes and wage rates Preliminary estimates Source Department of Agriculture 28 CONSUMER CREDIT In May total consumer credit rose nearly 500 million with all major categories participating in the increase BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS END OF YEAR 948 SOURCE END OF MONTH COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM Millions of dollars Total consumer credit outstanding End of period April May June July AugustSeptember October November December January February March April Mav Instalment credit Total Automobile sale credit Other sale credit and loans Other consumer credit Pfi i Includes single payment loans of commercial banks and pawnbrokers and service credit NoTE Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding Charge accounts 4 12S 2 Preliminary estimates Source Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System 29 MONEY BANKING AND FEDERAL FINANCE BANK LOANS AND INVESTMENTS Commercial banks continued to increase their loons in May Their holdings of Government securities which had been contracting in previous months rose 500 million BILLIONS OF DOLLARS END OF YEAR BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 150 F M A M J M A S 0 N 0 J F M J J A 0 N D J F M A M END J A S 0 N D OF MONTH SOURCE BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS Billions of dollars all commercial banks TW 1 lotai End of period Investments loans and investments Bank loans ApriL AViOJ Mav June July August September October November December January February March April 1 May Total U S Government securities Other securities Preliminary estimates NOTE Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding 30 Source Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System MONEY SUPPLY The privately held money supply increased I billion in May BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS TOTAL DEPOSITS AND CURRENCY EXCLUDING U S GOVERNMENT DEPOSITS END OF Y E A R END OF MONTH SOURCE BOARD Of GOVERNORS OF TH FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM Billions of dollars Total privately held money supply End of period April May June July August September October November December 1950 January February March April 3 May R Currency outside banks Adjusted demand deposits Time deposits Includes Includes 3 demand deposits other than interbank and TJ S Government less cash items in process of collection deposits in commercial banks mutual savings banks and Postal Savings System Preliminary estimates NOTE Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding Source Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System 31 FEDERAL CASH RECEIPTS FROM AND PAYMENTS TO THE PUBLIC In 2nd quarter of I960 cosh payments to the public were SJ 7 billion larger than receipts Receipts were lorger and payments less than in the corresponding quarter of 1949 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS I BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 19 7 S I EXCESS OF GASH RECEIPTS J TJ U EXCESS Of CASH HWMENTS CALENDAR Millions of dollars Federal cash receipts from the public Calendar years Calendar year total Federal cash payments to the public Quarterly total not adjusted for Beasonal 1947 Third quarter Fourth quarter First quarter Second quarter Third quarter Fourth quarter First quarter Third quarter Fourth quarter First quarter 2 Second quarter 1950 TEARS Excess of receipts or payments f 54 f I H f g t Payments of refunds of Government receipts are now reported as deductions from total receipts previously they were reported as expenditures NOTE Detail wiil not neccssarUy add to totals because of rounding Preliminary estimates based on incomplete data Sources Treasury Department and Bureau of the Budget 32 For sale by the Superintendent ot Documents D S Government Printing Office Washington 25 D C Price 15 cents per cooy 1 75 per year 2 20 foreign

Consumer Income, Spending, and Saving

DATE: July 1950

PART OF:

Economic Indicators : July 1950

AUTHOR:

Council of Economic Advisers (U.S.)

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Council of Economic Advisers (U.S.) , United States. Congress. Joint Committee on the Economic Report, 1946-1956 and United States. Congress. Joint Economic Committee, 1956-. "Consumer Income, Spending, and Saving," in Council of Economic Advisers (U.S.) , United States. Congress. Joint Committee on the Economic Report, 1946-1956 and United States. Congress. Joint Economic Committee, 1956-. "July 1950," Economic Indicators (July 1950) : 26-26. https://fraser.stlouisfed.org/title/1/item/249/toc/380771 , accessed on December 9, 2019.

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Economic Data