Money Supply

Name: Money Supply
Creator: FRASER
Keywords: Economic Data, Economic indicators, Economic conditions, United States

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Economic Indicators MARCH 1950 Prepared for the Joint Committee on the Economic Report by the Council of Economic Advisers UNITED STATES GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE WASHINGTON JOINT ftWMItTM OH THtl lli l ltiAM J I KANt i J M Y l t i V I V i m l i i JUIIK M A l i K M A N Al ham CADI I I IXKJGLAS Illinois ROIUiiKT A TAI T Ohio U J U f J uj M A i w WKir HT I A t MAN Tci WALTKK fl HUHIiR Ohio FRANK BUCHANAN Pennsylvania JESSE P WOLCOTT Michigan RALPH E FLANDERS Vermont ROBERT F RICH Pcnos ivania ARTHUR V WATKJNS Utah CHRISTIAN A HERTER Massachusetts TBKODORB J KBEPB Staff Director GEOVB W EvsLBt Assadatt Staff Director JOHN W LEHMAN Clirk PUBLIC LAW 120 81sx CONGRESS CHAPTER 237 IST SESSION JOINT RESOLUTION S J Res 55 To print the monthly publication entitled Economic Indicatots Resolvedly the Smate and House of Rifresctttatives of the United States of America in Congress assembled That the Joint Conmiincc on the Economic eport be authorized to issue a monthly publication entitled Economic Indicators and that a sufficient quantity be primed to furnish one Dpy to each Member of Congress the Secretary and the Sergeant at Arms of the Senate the Clerk Sergeant at Arms and Doorkeeper of the louse of Representatives two copies to the libraries of the Senate and House and the Congressional Library seven hundred topics to the Joint ommittee on the Economic Report and the required number of copies to the Superintendent of Documents for distribution to depository braries and that the Superintendent of Documents be authorized to have copies printed for sale to the public Approved June o fbf Members of Congress From the time the Joint Committee on the Economic Report was established its members realized that one of its asic needs was a concise and meaningful picture of current economic trends and developments Fortunately the joint committee found that Economic Indicators a set of basic charts and tables compiled monthly y the Council of Economic Advisers admirably filled this need While this material was prepared originally for the ise of the President the Council and other officials in the executive offices the Council made it available to the joint ommittee Other Members of Congress also expressed an interest in being able to obtain a qiiick picture of current economic acts without having to go through voluminous and specialized documents In addition businessmen farm leaders abor organizations and representatives of the press and radio indicated their desire for this information Accordingly the joint committee provided the Congress and the public with a limited number of copies of Economic Indicators as a committee print pending final action on authorizing the publication on a more permanent basis is is indicated above such legislation has now been passed and the committee will issue the report on a regular monthly sasis Comments or suggestions with respect to possible improvements in this presentation will always be welcome w s s Chairman Joint Committee on the Economic Report Letter o Transmittal Hoo JOSEPH C O MAHONEY Chairman Joint Committee on the Economic Report United States Congress Washington D C DEAR SENATOR The Council of Economic Advisers is happy to cooperate with the Joint Committee on the Economic Report in making Economic Indicators available to the Congress as a whole and to the general public in accordance with Public Law 120 Eightyfirst Congress In carrying out its mandate under the Employment Act of 1946 the Council has found it desirable to bring together in concise and graphic form the most important facts showing current trends in the Nation s economy Thus the Executive Office is in a better position to point up the key problems of national economic policy and to promote the improvement and coordination of the Federal Government s widespread statistical services In this undertaking the Council has the full cooperation of the several agencies of the Federal Government that collect statistical material In many cases these agencies supply advance estimates for use in Economic Indicators While the charts are drawn through the courtesy of the Graphics Unit in the Office of the Secretary of Commerce the Council takes complete responsibility for the graphic presentation This material has proven useful to the President the Council the executive departments and the Congress Furthermore its usefulness to the general public has been impressed upon us particularly by the representatives of business labor agriculture and consumer organizations with whom we regularly consult We believe that the Congress is performing a service of real value by making this material available Sincerely yours Acting Chairman m Contents THE NATION S ECONOMIC BUDGET Page The Nation s Economic Budget 1 PRICES Consumers Prices Wholesale Prices Prices Received and Paid by Farmers Stock Prices EMPLOYMENT Labor Force Nonagricultural Employment Selected Industries Average Weekly Hours Selected Industries Work Stoppages PRODUCTION AND BUSINESS ACTIVITY Industrial Production Weekly Production Selected Indicators Production of Selected Manufactures New Construction New Housing Starts Expenditures for New Plant and Equipment New Corporate Security Issues Inventories and Sales Merchandise Exports and Imports PURCHASING POWER National Income Corporate Profits Personal Income Consumer Income Spending and Saving Per Capita Income Average Hourly Earnings Selected Industries Average Weekly Earnings Selected Industries Farm Income Personal Consumption Expenditures Consumer Credit MONEY BANKING AND FEDERAL FINANCE Bank Loans and Investments Money Supply Federal Cash Receipts From and Payments to the Public THE NATION S ECONOMIC BUDGET THE NATION S ECONOMIC BUDGET The economic decline leveled off in 4th quarter 1943 the total output of goods and services being less than 1 billion annual rate below 3rd quarter according to preliminary estimates Allowing for the effects of industrial disputes the year s end found the economy moving upward 1949 4th TOTAL BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 17 Quarter EXCESS OF EXPENDITURES RECEIPTS f Gross National Product CONSUMERS 0 CONSUMER SAVING l90 7 jii j i li l lli EXPENDITURES BUSINESS EXCESS OF INVESTMENT INTERNATIONAL EXCESS OF RECEIPTS GOVERNMENT Federal state and loco 57 4 CASH DEFICIT Transfer payments 1949 3rd Quarter TOTAL BILLIONS OF DOLLARS Gross National Product CONSUMERS Transfer payments i jiJijijiiiiii i ii ijj PPPPPPPj ie9 5 CONSUMER SAVING BUSINESS EXCESS OF INVESTMENT EXCESS OF RECEIPTS GOVERNMENT Federal state and local 57 2 CASH DEFICIT I Transfer payments ANNUAL RATES SOURCE SEASONALLY ADJUSTED SEE ECONOMIC REPORT OF THE PRESIDENT JANUARY I960 APPENDIX A PRICES CONSUMERS PRICES Consumers prices declining again in January were 2 3 percent below a year ago and 4 4 percent below their postwar peak Most components recorded declines in January with the largest in food Rent continued upward PERCENT PERCENT OF 1935 39 AVERAGE OF 1935 39 AVERAGE i i i i i J F M A M J J A S O N O J F M A M 1948 J J A S O N O I J 1949 F M A M J J A S O N f SOURCE DEPARTMENT OF LABOR COUNCIL OF EGOWOM Period 1940 monthly average 1941 monthly average 1942 monthly average 1943 monthly average 1944 monthly average 1945 monthly average 1946 monthly average 1947 monthly average 1948 monthly average 1949 monthly average 1948 December January 15 Februarv 15 March 15 April 15 May 15 June 15 July 15 August 15 September 15 October 15 November 15 December January 15 All items Food NOTE Prices are for moderate income families in large cities Source Department of Labor Apparel Rent Fuel electricity and refrigeration House furnishings Miscellaneous WHOLESALE PRICES Wholesale prices were higher in February primarily because of higher farm and food prices PERCENT OF 1926 A V E R A G E 200 PERCENT OF 1926 AVERAGE OTHER THAN FARM PRODUCTS AND FOODS INDUSTRIAL 0 I i l l I It I I 1 I I 1 If I j I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I l i i l l I J I I I I 1 1 I I i M i M I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I l l I I I I i I I I I I I I i l I I I I I t I I I 0 W LATEST DATA PLOTTED SOURCE MONTHLY FEBRUARY W E E K L Y FEBRUARY 28 DEPARTMENT OF L A B O R COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS All commodities Period 1942 monthly average 1946 monthly average June monthly average 1948 monthly average 1949 monthly average 1949 January February March April May June July August September October November December 1950 January 1 Februarv Week ended 1950 January 31 February Estimate based on change in weekly data Source Department of Labor Farm products Foods Other than farm products and foods PRICES RECEIVED AND PAID BY FARMERS Prices received by farmers increased about 1 percent from January 15 to February 15 chiefly as a result of a 7 percent increase in meat animal prices Prices paid were virtually unchanged so the parity index ncreased PERCENT OF 1910 14 AV ERAGE 350 PERCE NT OF I9IO M AVERASE 350 MONTHLY 1 AVERASE PRICES t w j PRICES PAID INOL INTEREST TAXES AND WAGE RATES ZOO 200 f 150 IOO RECEIVED ISO a IOO A i PARITY RATIO so M i l l 1 1 J F M i M J J A S O N O COUNCIL Prices paid by farmers includPrices received ing interest Parity ratio taxes and by farmers wage rates Period 1939 monthly average 1942 monthly average 1 944 monthly average 1945 monthly average1946 monthly average monthly average 1949 monthly average February March 15 April 15 Mav 15 Julv 15 August 15 September January 15 February October HpnpmhRr 1 i January 15 June S Ratio of index of prices received to index of prices paid interest taxes and wage rates Includes wartime subsidy payments paid on beef cattle sheep lambs milk and butterfat between October 1943 and June 1946 Source Department of Agriculture o 1950 SOURCE DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE November 15 1 J F M i M J J A S O N D J F M l M J J A S O N D ECONOMIC AOV1SEHs STOCK PRICES Stock prices in February continued the rise started last summer Industrials and utilities were both above their 1948 peak levels PERCENT OF AVERAGE PERCENT OR 1935 39 AVERAGE WEEKLY AVERAGE WEEKLY AVERAGE INDUSTRIALS V A V V x NNs j A A II I M ji j f x v fvfV y l s V A N I M j U v V A x UTILITIES t V COMPOSITE INDEX t VA X y Vv v v X RAILROADS 1 t v A fy w ji v f NJ y 50 0 i i i 4 1 i 42 i 43 i 44 i 45 i 46 i 47 i 48 I I 49 I I I I I I I I I I I I I I 1948 SOURCE STANDARD AND I I I I I 1 I I I I I I I I I 1949 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS Combined index Period 8 March Industrials Railroads Utilities Combined index prior to June was based on 402 common stocks and included 354 industrials 20 railroads and 28 utilities thereafter 416 common stocks are represented with 365 industrials 20 railroads and 31 utilities Source Standard Poor s Corporation POOR S CORPORATION Weekly average January February March April May June July August September Octobpr November December 1950 January February Week ended 1950 February 1 I J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D o EMPLOYMENT LABOR FORCE Employment changed very little from January to February either in agriculture or nonagricultural industries Unemployment increased from 4 5 to 4 7 million reflecting a rise of 200 000 in the labor force MILLIONS OF PERSONS MILLIONS OF PERSONS 70 TO TOTAL LABOR FORCE UNEMPLOYMENT iplfiSqHBBiR NONAGRICULTURAL EMPLOYMENT 20 O I PERCENT 2O UNEMPLOYMENT PERCENT OF IS nn 1944 I94T 1948 MONTHLY AVERAGE SOURCE DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE Period Total labor force including armed forces Civilian employment Total In nonagricultural industries In agriculture Armed forces Unemployment Unemployment as percent of labor force Thousands of persons 14 years of age and over monthly monthly monthly monthly monthly average average average average average 1949 January February March April May June July August September October November December 1950 January February Includes part time workers and those who had jobs but were not at work for such reasons as vacation illness bad weatheri temporary lay off and industrial disputes NOTE Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding Source Department of Commerce NONAGRICULTURAL EN PLC YMENT SELECTED INDUSTRIES Employment declines were large in trade and Govern ment in January due to a return to more normal levels following expanded pre holiday activity in reta il trade and post offices There were declines also among most industries manufacturing nondura ble goo Js while durable goods industries showed firmness MILL IONS OF WAGE MILLI ONS OF WAGE AND SALARY WORKERS 8 0 AND SALARY WORKERS 9 0 DURABLE MANUFACTURING NONDURABLE MANUFACTURING r X IkMtl S I947 E x O us J I F I M I A 1 M 1 J J 1 1 A S 1 0 I N o D 1 J I F 1 M 1 A 1 M 1 J 1 J 1 A 1 S D N TRADE CONTRACT CONSTRUCTION O n 1948x f E E I E I r l X f r IH r J 1 1 F 1 M 1 A 1 M 1 J J 1 A 1 S N D o l J I 1 F 1 M 1 A 1 M 1 J SOURCE DEPARTMENT OF LABOR I J I A 1 S 1 0 1 N 0 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC A D V I S E R S Thousands of wage and salary workers l Manufacturing Period Total Durable goods Contract Nondur construction able goods Trade Finance and service Government Transportation and Federal public State local utilities Mining monthly average monthly average monthly average monthly average monthly average monthly average December January February March April May June July August September October November December January 3 1 Includes all full and part time wage and salary workers in nonagricultural establishments who worked or received pay during the pay period ending nearest the 15th of the month Excludes proprietors self employed persons domestic servants and personnel of the armed forces Total derived from this table not comparable with estimates of nonagricultural employment of the civilian labor force reported by the Department of Commerce p 6 which include proprietors self employed persons and domestic servants which count persons as employed when they are not at work because of industrial disputes and which are based on an enumeration of population whereas the estimates in this table are based on reports from employing establishments 2 Not available 3 Preliminary estimate Source Department of Labor 7 AVERAGE WEEKLY HOURS SELECTED INDUSTRIES The January workweek in durable manufacturing showed no change from the 1949 peak reached in December It was slightly shorter in nondurable manufacturing HOUF S PER WEEK HOURS PER WEEK NONDURABLE MANUFACTURING DURABLE MANUFACTURING W7 X VA VX X 40 Vv v 38 r r w S S V I 1 I 1 I i I t I 1 1J i V Mill 0 I960 M i l l M I 1950 RETAIL TRADE BUILDING CONSTRUCTION x v s H s t MI iiiii1 0 I960 1 l 1 1 l 1 1 1 1 M I I 1 1 l 1 l 1 I COUNCIl SOURCE DEPARTMENT OF LABOR Hours per week selected industries Manufacturing Period 1939 monthly average 1943 monthly average 1946 monthly average 1947 monthly average 1948 monthlv average 3 1949 monthly average 1948 December 1949 January February March April Mav Total June Julv August September October 3 November 3 December 1950 January 3 1 For production and related workers 2 Not available 3 Preliminary estimate Source Department of Labor Durable goods Nondurable construction Retail trade goods I 1 1 1 i WORK STOPPAGES Although man days of idleness because of work stoppages increased in January they were still at a low level The short workweek for coal miners was not taken into account in these data MILLIONS OF MAN DAYS IDLE MILLIONS OF MAN DAYS IDLE MONTHLY AVERAGE F M A M J COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS SOURCE DEPARTMENT OF LABOR Man days idle during period Period December January l February 1 March April May June July L August l September October J November J December 1950 January 1 J A S O N D I Workers involved in stoppages Beginning Monthly Percent of in average estimated period thousands working time thousands In effect during month thousands Number of stoppages Beginning in period In effect during month Preliminary estimate Source Department of Labor 9 PRODUCTION AND BUSINESS ACTIVITY INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION Industrial production increased further in January to the highest level since March 1949 There was a larger output of both durable and nondurable goods Preliminary data for February indicate that work stoppages in coal and automobile industries caused a drop of about 3 percent in industrial production PERCENT OF 1935 39 AVERAGE PERCENT OF AVERAGE i960 SOURCE BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS seasonally adjusted Total industrial production Period Manufactures Minerals Total Durable goods Nondurable goods 1943 monthly average 1946 monthly average 1947 monthly average 1948 monthly average 1949 monthly average January February March April Mav June July August September October November December Januarv 1 February Preliminary estimate Source Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System WEEKLY PRODUCTION SELECTED INDICATORS Steel ingot production dropped moderately in February and still further during the week ended March 4 as a result of coal stoppages Electric power continued at peak rates Automobile production was slowed down by labor disputes MILLIONS OF TONS 3 BILLIONS OF KILOWATT HOURS 7 0 J F M A M J J SOURCES AMERICAN IRON AND STEEL INSTITUTE EDISON ELECTRIC INSTITUTE DEPARTMENT OF THE INTERIOR WARD S AUTOMOTIVE REPORTS Steel Period Weekly average Thousands of net tons 1950 February March 4 11 COUNCIL OF I Cars and trucks number m Week ended 1949 February March 5 12 Percent of capacity 1 Electric power Bituminous coal by utilities thousands of millions of kilowatt hours short tons 2 ASO Based on weekly net ton capacity of for for for 1949 and for 1950 Daily average for week Sources American Iron and Steel Institute Edison Electric Institute Department of the Interior and Ward s Automotive Reports 2 11 PRODUCTION OF SELECTED MANUFACTURES Most durable manufactures increased further in January with the exception of lumber which declined from its exceptionally high December level Nondurables continued at or above their previous high levels 250 E5O v K w IRON ISO A N A JD STEE 2OO A PS V J Jf DUCTS PRO V 150 NO PRODUCTS IOO R J AND PRODUCTS Wf i j 0 T i i i i i i 1 l i 1 l 1 i l rTT l i n i O I A 200 j 948 ISO OF GOVERNORS OF THE 1949 FEDERAL IOO r F x y r v MANUFACTURED FOOD PRODUCTS J L j JL t i i l 1 l l i i i I rTi M i 1 M 1 1 1 1 r t i M I i i 1 1 i i i i n fTl 4O 1950 RESERVE y I 1 L j nTi 1 1 i n r r 0 t I 1 f ARD L IOO SOURCE A s i METALS AND PROD UCTS AL PRODUCTS 1 f f NONFERROUS M t t i I i n Pfl A ISO uinIi i t K 300 n NERY Yr V J IOO 3 J9 1 r A LUM SYSTEM seasonally adjusted Nondurable manufactures Durable manufactures i eriod January M arch August September October Novpmbcr Nonferrous metals and products Textiles and prodxicts M a v June 50 January J Preliminary estimate Source Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System Manufactured food products Machinery monthly average 947 monthly average 9 4 8 monthly average monthly average December Petroleum and coal products Lumber and product Iron and steel Chemical products NEW CONSTRUCTION New construction held up well in February at a level about 20 percent above that of a year ago Preliminary data indicate that March activity will be high M I L L I O N S OF DOLLARS 2 000 M I L L I O N S OF DOLLARS m I I I 1939 J i i i i INCLUDES PUBLIC RESIDENTIAL CONSTRUCTION SOURCES DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE AND DEPARTMENT OF LABOR Millions of dollars Private construction Period 1939 monthly average 1942 monthly average 1944 Tnoiithly avenge monthly average 1947 monthly average 1948 monthly average 1949 monthly average 1949 January February March April May June July August September October November December 1950 January 2 February Total new construction Total private Residential nonfarm Other Federal State and local Includes public residential construction Preliminary estimate Sources Department of Commerce and Department of Labor 13 NEW HOUSING STARTS Housing starts in January were the highest ever recorded for the month February show no break from this high level Early figures for THOUSANDS OF UNITS THOUSANDS OF UNITS SOURCE DEPARTMENT OF LABOR New nonfarrn units started JYLOntlL l 300 March July August September October Total Preliminary estimate Source Department of Labor EXPENDITURES FOR NEW PLANT AND EQUIPMENT Plant and equipment expenditures by nonagricultural business firms in 2nd half of 1949 were estimated at 14 percent less than those of 2nd half of 1948 Anticipated expenditures for 1st quarter of I960 are likewise reported as 14 percent below those of 1st quarter 1949 Electric and gas utilities are the only major business group anticipating higher expenditures this quarter than a year ago BILLIONS OF DOLLARS TRANSPORTATION AND ELECTRIC AND GAS SSSUTILITIES NOT ADJUSTED FOR SEASONAL VARIATION SOURCES SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE C O M M I S S I O N AND DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS Millions of dollars annual rates not adjusted for seasonal Total i Period Manufacturing Mining Transportation Railroad First quarter Second quarter Third quarter Fourth quarter First quarter Second quarter Third quarter 3 Fourth quarter First quarter Other Electric and Commercial gas utilities and miscellaneous s Excludes agriculture Commercial and miscellaneous composed of trade service finance and communication Figures for fourth quarter of 1949 and first quarter of 1950 are based on anticipated capital expenditures NOTE These figures do not agree with the totals included in the gross national product estimates of the Department of Commerce principally because the latter cover agricultuial investment and also certain equipment and construction outlays charged to current expense Figures for 1939 44 are Federal Reserve Board estimates based on Securities and Exchange Commission and other data Detail will not necessarily add to totals because annual rates are based on quarterly figures rounded to the nearest Sources Securities and Exchange Commission and Department of Commerce except as noted 15 NEW CORPORATE SECURITY ISSUES New corporate issues showed a seasonal rise in the 4th quarter of the year but were far below the total for the 4th quarter of 1948 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS SOURCE SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE COMMISSION Millions of dollars Proposed uses of net proceeds Estimated net proceeds Period New money Total 1939 quarterly average 1943 quarterly average 1946 quarterly average 1947 quarterly average 1948 quarterly average 2 1949 quarterly average 1947 Third quarter Fourth quarter 1948 First quarter Second quarter Third quarter Fourth quarter 1949 First quarter Second quarter Third quarter 2 Fourth quarter 1 L Includes small amount for other purposes Preliminary estimate NOTE Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding Minor revisions made in 1949 data after chart was prepared Source Securities and Exchange Commission Working capital Retirement of debt and stock Plant and equipment INVENTORIES AND SALES Manufacturers sales rose moderately in January after allowance for seasonal variation and total retail sales similarly adjusted were higher than in any month of last year BILL ONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS WHOLESALE RETAIL 20 20 SE INVEI TC RIES Y INVE SIT OR1ES v r r w H M 1 M 1 H 11 i T ir X x X s L s s L s sp i i t i i t i i i S 1 0 i i11 II 1 1 In l I I I BILL IONS OF DOLLARS 0 i i i i i i i i i M i t t 1 I 11I 1947 t 1 1 I 1 II I I I1 1950 PERCENT OF AVERAGE DEPARTMENT STORES MANUFACTURERS 40 400 SEASONALLY ADJUSTED MONTHLY AVERAGE INVE NT ORIES V r xx 20 j L y 300 IS x V cvvfl w INVE IS TC RIES S L ES A JT I0 I i l i M 1 I 1 i i i i 1 1 II 1 I M Mi 1 i i i i l i i I t M 1 t 1 1 1 1 t I1 1 11 Il SOURCE DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE AND BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM Wholesale Sales 2 Inventories 1 Period Retail Inventories l Sales December 949 January February March April May June July August September October 5 November December 5 950 January COUNCIL Of ECONOMIC ADVISERS Manufacturers Inventories 1 Sales 2 Department stores Inventories 3 Sales seasonally adjusted Millions of dollars seasonally adjusted I f l 207 I Book value end of period Monthly average for year and total for month Indexes computed from data on retail value of sales for month and retail book value of inventories end of period All dollar figures except for retail sales have been revised and do not agree with data publishedjpriar to October 1949 Preliminary estimates Sources Department of Commerce and Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System 17 MERCHANDISE EXPORTS AND IMPORTS Exports in January resumed their downward trend falling 21 percent to the lowest monthly figure in over three years Imports increased moderately for the 6th successive month again exceeding 1948 and 1949 monthly averages As a result the merchandise export surplus fell to the lowest level since October 1945 MILLIONS OF DOLLARS MILLIONS OF DOLLARS RECORDED GENERAL M E R C H A N D I S E IMPORTS SOURCES DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE DEPARTMENT OF THE ARMY AND DEPARTMENT OF THE NAVY Millions of dollars Exports Period l Excess of exports December Januarv February March April Mav June July August September October November December monthly average 1943 monthly average 1946 monthly average 1947 monthly average 1948 monthly average 1949 monthly average 247 Imports C J 1950 January Recorded merchandise exports including reexports and civilian supplies for occupied areas Recorded general merchandise imports Sources Department of Commerce Department of the Army and Department of the Navy L8 PURCHASING POWER NATIONAL INCOME National income in 4th quarter was almost equal to that in 3rd quarter but 6 percent below 4th quarter of 1948 BILLIONS 250 OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS CORPORATE PROFITS AND INVENTORY VALUATION ADJUSTMENT COM PEN SAT 10 N OFssus HHiiiHiiiiiiiiHiiiiHHiiiH PMPI A Y F F SOURCE DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE except OS noted Billions of dollars Total national income Period i Corporate profits and inventory valuation adjustment Compensation of employees Proprietors business professional farm d rental income Net interest Total Profits before taxes Inventory valuation adjustment Annual rates seasonally adjusted 1948 First quarter Second quarter Third quarter Fourth quarter 1949 First quarter Second quarter Third quarter Fourth quarter Estimates by Council of Economic Advisers based on incomplete data NOTE Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding Source Department of Commerce except asjioted 19 CORPORATE PROFITS Corporate profits in 2nd half of 1949 were higher than in 1st half reflecting the improvement in business activity BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS ANNUAL RATES SEASONALLY ADJUSTED UNDISTRIBUTED PROF ITS gsaa W H js SOURCE DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE EXCEPT AS NOTED Billions of dollars Corporate profits after taxes Corporate profits before taxes Period i Corporate tax liability w Total Dividend payments Undistributed profits Annual rates seasonally adjusted 1948 First quarter Third quarter Fourth quarter First quarter Second quarter Third quarter Fourth quarter 1 Estimates by Council of Economic Advisers based on incomplete data NOTE No allowance has been made for inventory valuation adjustment taxes and inventory valuation adjustment Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding Source Department of Commerce except as noted See p 20 for profits before PERSONAL INCOME Personal income was about 6 2 billion annual rate seasonally adjusted higher in January The increases in transfer payments for veterans insurance dividends and in farm proprietors income were partially off set by a drop in corporate dividend payments from their unusually high level in December BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF D O L L A R S 250 ANNUAL RATES SEASONALLY ANNUAL TOTALS 250 ADJUSTED TOTAL ROPRlETpRS AND RENT A J A S 0 J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D 1948 I 1949 N D 1947 SOURCE DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE J F M A M J 1950 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC A D V I S E R S Billions of dollars Total personal income Period Proprietors business Salaries wages professional Dividends and other and personal farm labor income interest and rental income Transfer payments Annual rates seasonally adjusted 1948 December 1949 January February March April Mav June Julv August September October November December 1950 January J Preliminary estimate Includes 5 4 billion annual rate or 450 million monthly total for veterans insurance dividends NOTE Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding Source Department of Commerce 2 21 CONSUMER INCOME SPENDING AND SAVING Consumer expenditures in 4th quarter of 1949 were about 180 billion annual rate a drop of only 1 billion from 4th quarter of 1948 according to revised data During the same period personal disposable income dropped 5 5 billion BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS ANNUAL RATES SEASONALLY ADJUSTED 200 I DISPOSABLE PERSONAL INCOME SOURCE DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE Billions of dollars Disposable personal income J Period i Less Personal consumption expenditures Equals Personal saving Annual rates seasonally adjusted 1948 First quarter Second quarter Third quarter Fourth quarter First quarter Second quarter Third quarter Fourth quarter Income less taxes NOTE Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding Source Department of Commerce PER CAPITA INCOME Per capita disposable income in 4th quarter of 1949 was about the same as in the 3rd quarter but about 4 percent below 4th quarter of 1948 With a small drop in prices there was slight improvement from 3rd to 4th quarter in terms of real purchasing power DOLLARS 1 600 ANNUAL RATES SEASONALLY ADJUSTED 1 200 I I 234 I I I l949 I SOURCE DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE AND DEPARTMENT OF LABOR Per capita disposable personal income l Current 1948 dollars 3 dollars Period Annual rates seasonally adjusted 1948 First quarter Second quarter Third quarter Fourth quarter First quarter Second quarter Third quarter Fourth quarter Consumers price index Not adjusted for seasonal variation Income less taxes Current dollars divided by the consumers price index on the base The consumers price index has been roughly adjusted to take account of the understatement from December 1941 February 1947 This adjustment is in line with the report of the Mitchell Committee The unadjusted index will be found on page 2 Sources Department of Commerce and Department of Labor 23 AVERAGE HOURLY EAEiNIN GS SELECTED INDUSTRIES Gross hourly earnings in manufacturing industries we re slight y above the high December level Increases occurred in both durable and nondurable groups DOLLA RS PER HOUR DOLL iRS PER HOUR DURABLE MANUFACTURING NONDURABLE MANUFACTURING v N s f J CURF ENT DOLLARS Sf S J I l L j CURRENT DOLLARS UO tzzz DOLLARS f 1 i i i i 1 i i LJ l l 1 i 1 1 J 1A 1949 I I 1 LJ I I Jj J 11 1 1 I 11 I RETAIL TRADE BUILDING CONSTRUCTION i irx 1948 DOLLARS I 9O DOLLARS S rT V sf sS X v c CURRENT DOLLAR s S CURRENT DOLLARS I 1 1 1 LI L1 I 1947 i i i i i 1 1 I 1i L 1948 I I 1l I 1 I i 1 1 1 l i I 1 1 1 1 l I I i 1 1 I 1 1 1i J 1 1 I I i I i I 1947 i ii ii1i iMi SOURCE DEPARTMENT OF LABOR 1 I 1l I 1l 1 I I I I COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS Selected industries l All manufacturing Period Current dollars L939 monthly average 1943 monthly average 1946 monthly average 1947 monthly average 1948 monthly average 1949 monthly average 4 1948 December 1949 January February March April xvj ajr Mav June July August September October November 44 December 1950 January dollars Durable goods manufacturing Current dollars C dollars Nondurable goods manufacturing Current dollars dollars Production and related workers Current dollars divided by consumers price index on base See note 3 to table on page 23 Not available Preliminary estimates Source Department of Labor Building construction Current dollars dollars Retail trade Current dollars L dollars AVERAGE WEEKLY EAFiNIN GS SELECTED INDUSTRIES Averoge weekly earnings in manufacturing rose furt her in Jcjnuary with durable goods again showing the greatest rise DOLL ARS 60 DOLL ARS PER WEEK DOLLARS X t J X WEEK NONDURABLE MANUFACTURING DURABLE MANUFACTURING 60 PER T 1948 DOLLARS s jf S CURRENT DOLLARS NX CURRENT DOLLARS I 1 1 1 i LJ U i i 1 i U i i i l i l i i i i i JL 1 1 U J i 1 I I i 1 1 M i i 1 1 L I95O RETAIL TRADE BUILDING CONSTRUCTION N DOLLARS r Z VB SVfc DOLLARS i CURRENT DOLLARS CURRENT C OLLARS i ii i l 1 i i i l I 1 i t i i 1 i i i l i 1 i 1 1 I l i i i 1947 ft CURRENT SOURCE J i i i i i 1 i i l l i i i l l i 1 l l l i i i i l i t 1 i 1 i l i 1 1 I 1 1 j LJ lT 1950 DOLLARS DIVIDED BY CONSUMERS PRICE INDEX ON BASE OF DEPARTMENT COUNCIL OF LABOR OF ECONOMIC ADVISORS Selected industries l All manufacturing Durable goods manufacturing Nondurable goods manufacturing Building construction Retail trade Period Current dollars 1948 dollars 2 Current dollars 1948 dollars 2 Current dollars 1948 dollars 2 Current dollars monthly average monthly average monthly average monthly average monthly average monthly average December January February March April May June July August September October November December Jannarv For production and related workers 2 Current dollars divided by consumers price index on the base See note 3 to table on page 23 1 Not available 4 Preliminary estimates Source Department of Labor 1948 dollars Current dollars dollars FARM INCOME Farmers cash receipts in January were moderately smaller than in December decreased marketings more than offsetting the increase in prices received The January income was about 5 percent below January 1949 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS INCLUDES CASH FARM INCOME FROM MARKETING AND GOVERNMENT PAYMENTS FARM INCOME IN CURRENT DOLLARS DIVIDED BY PRICES PAID BY FARMERS INTEREST TAXES AGE RATES SOURCE DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE Period Farm income Prices paid by Farm income farmers incl millions of millions of interest taxes currentl and wage rates 1948 dollars 3 2 dollars monthly average monthly average monthly average monthly average monthly average monthly average monthly average monthly average monthly average December January February March April May June July August September October November December January Includes cash farm income from marketings and Government payments Converted from the reported base to the base Farm income in current dollars divided by prices paid by farmers interest taxess and wage I Preliminary estimates Source Department of Agriculture rates PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES According to revised estimates purchases of durable goods dropped slightly in 4th quarter of 1949 and purchases of nondurable goods showed little change after declining for 3 quarters Expenditures for services reached a new high in 4th quarter BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 2OO BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 200 I SOURCE DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS Billions of dollars Personal consumption expenditures Period Nondurable goods Total Durable goods Services Annual rates seasonally adjusted 1948 First quarter Second quarter Third quarter Fourth quarter First quarter Second quarter Third quarter Fourth quarter NOTE Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding Source Department of Qommerce 27 CONSUMER CREDIT With a seasonal drop in charge accounts total consumer credit fell about 400 million in January Automobile sale credit continued strong 3ILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS END OF YEAR END OF MONTH SOURCE BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS Millions of dollars End of period Total consumer credit outstanding December 1949 January February March April May June July August September October November December 1950 January Instalment credit Total Automobile sale credit Other sale credit and loans Includes single payment loans of commercial banks and pawnbrokers and service credit Preliminary estimates NOTE Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding Source Board of Governors of the Federal Eeserve System Charge accounts Other consumer credit MONEY BANKING AND FEDERAL FINANCE BANK LOANS AND INVESTMENTS Commercial bank loans declined 200 million during January after a steady expansion since last summer Security holdings were up 1 billion with most of the increase being those of the U S Government BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS J F M A M J J A S O N O J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D END OF YEAR 1948 END 1949 OF M O N T H 1950 SOURCE BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM COUNCIL l Billions of dollars all commercial banks End of period December 1949 January February March April May June July August September October November December 1950 January J Investments Total loans and investments Bank loans Total U S Government securities Other securities Preliminary estimates NOTE Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding Source Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System 29 MONEY SUPPLY A seasonal decline in currency outside of banks during January was nearly offset by a rise in deposits leaving total money supply at about the December level BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS SOURCE BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM Billions of dollars Total money supply End of period December January February March May JuneJuly August September October November December 1950 January Currency outside banks Adjusted demand deposits Time deposits Includes demand deposits other than interbank and U S Government less cash items in process of collection 3 Includes deposits in commercial banks mutual savings banks and Postal Savings System 3 Preliminary estimates NOTE Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding Source Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System FEDERAL CASH RECEIPTS FROM AND PAYMENTS TO THE PUBLIC The cash deficit of about 1 5 billion for the 4th quarter compares with a deficit of about 0 9 billion for the same quarter of 1948 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 16 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS I6 CASH PAYMENTS EXCESS OF CASH RECEIPTS ym EXCESS OF CASH PAYMENTS 4 I e I CALENDAR YEARS PRELIMINARY ESTIMATES SOURCE B U R E A U OF THE BUDGET AND TREASURY DEPARTMENT C O U N C I L OF ECONOMIC A D V I S E R S Millions of dollars Federal cash receipts from the public 1 Calendar years Federal cash payments to the public l Calendar year total Quarterly total not adjusted for seasonal 1947 First quarter 14 345 Second quarter 9 847 Third quarter 10 220 Fourth quarter First quarter 15 037 Second quarter 10 238 Third quarter 10 085 Fourth quarter First quarter Second quarter Third quarter Fourth quarter Payments of refunds of Government receipts are now reported as deductions viously they were reported as expenditures 2 Preliminary estimates based on incomplete data NOTE Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding Sources Treasury Department and Bureau of the Budget Excess of receipts or payments from total receipts pre o For sale by the Superintendent of Documents U S Gov ernment Printing Office Washington 25 D C Price 15 cents per copy 1 75 per year 2 25 foreign 31

Money Supply

DATE: March 1950

PART OF:

Economic Indicators : March 1950

AUTHOR:

Council of Economic Advisers (U.S.)

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Council of Economic Advisers (U.S.) , United States. Congress. Joint Committee on the Economic Report, 1946-1956 and United States. Congress. Joint Economic Committee, 1956-. "Money Supply," in Council of Economic Advisers (U.S.) , United States. Congress. Joint Committee on the Economic Report, 1946-1956 and United States. Congress. Joint Economic Committee, 1956-. "March 1950," Economic Indicators (March 1950) : 34-34. https://fraser.stlouisfed.org/title/1/item/245/toc/195995 , accessed on December 12, 2019.

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Economic Data