Consumer Credit

Name: Consumer Credit
Creator: FRASER
Keywords: Economic Data, Economic indicators, Economic conditions, United States

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Congress 1st Session Loots rubric Libran F fjBEfW rtpi Joint Committee Print Economic Indicators JANUARY 1949 Prepared for the Joint Committee on the Economic Report by the Council of Economic Advisers and printed for the use of the Joint Committee on the Economic Report UNITED STATES GOVERNMENT PRINTING WASHINGTON 1949 OFFICE JOINT COMMITTEE ON THE ECONOMIC REPORT Created pursuant to Sec 5 a of Public Law 304 79th Cong ROBERT A TAFT Ohio Chairman JESSE P WOLCOTT Michigan Vice Chairman RALPH E FLANDERS Vermont ARTHUR V WATKINS Utah JOSEPH C O MAHONEY Wyoming FRANCIS J MYERS Pennsylvania JOHN SPARKMAN Alabama CHRISTIAN A HERTER Massachusetts ROBERT F RICH Pennsylvania EDWARD J HART New Jersey WRIGHT PATMAN Texas WALTER B HUBER Ohio FRED E BERQUIST Assistant Staff Director JOHN W LEHMAN Clerk WILLIAM H MOORE Economist To the Members of Congress From the time the Joint Committee on the Economic Report was established its members realized that one of its basic needs was a concise and meaningful picture of current economic trends and developments Fortunately the Joint Committee finds that Economic Indicators a set of basic charts and tables compiled monthly by the Council of Economic Advisers admirably fills this need While this material was prepared primarily for the use of the President the Council and other officials in the executive offices the Council has made it available to the Joint Committee Other Members of Congress have also expressed an interest in being able to obtain a quick picture of current economic facts without having to go through voluminous and specialized documents In addition businessmen farm leaders labor organizations and representatives of the press and radio have indicated their desire for this information Since nothing contained 11 in these charts and tables is of a confidential nature they have urged that the material be made available to the general public Accordingly the Joint Committee has for the past several months provided the Congress and the public with a limited number of copies of Economic Indicators The response to these issues has indicated such widespread interest that the Committee has arranged to release Economic Indicators each month as a committee print until action can be taken on authorizing the publication on a more permanent basis Comments or suggestions with respect to possible improvements in this presentation will always be welcome Chairman Joint Committee on the Economic Report Letter of Transmitted Hon ROBERT A TAFT Chairman Joint Committee on the Economic Report United States Congress Washington D C DEAR SENATOR The Council of Economic Advisers is happy to cooperate with the Joint Committee on the Economic Report in your plans to make Economic Indicators available to the Congress as a whole and to the general public In carrying out its mandate under the Employment Act of 1946 the Council has found it desirable to bring together in concise and graphic form the most important facts showing current trends in the Nation s economy Thus the Executive Office is in a better position to point up the key problems of national economic policy and to promote the improvement and coordination of the Federal Government s widespread statistical services We have realized of course that this material has a potential usefulness not only to the President the Council and the executive departments but also to the Congress Furthermore its usefulness to the general public has been impressed upon us particularly by the representatives of business labor agriculture and consumer organizations with whom we regularly consult We believe the Joint Committee will perform a service of real value by giving wide circulation to this material Sincerely yours Chairman W Vice Chairman A in Contents THE NATION S ECONOMIC BUDGET The Nation s Economic Budget Page 1 PRICES Consumers Prices Wholesale Prices Prices Received and Paid by Farmers Stock Prices EMPLOYMENT Labor Force Employment in Business and Government Average Weekly Hours Work Stoppages PRODUCTION AND BUSINESS ACTIVITY Industrial Production Production of Selected Durable Manufactures Production of Selected Nondurable Manufactures New Construction New Housing Starts Expenditures for New Plant and Equipment New Corporate Security Issues Inventories and Sales Exports and Imports PURCHASING POWER National Income Corporate Profits Personal Income Consumer Income Spending and Saving Per Capita Income Average Hourly Earnings Average Weekly Earnings Farm Income Personal Consumption Expenditures Consumer Credit MONEY BANKING AND FEDERAL FINANCE Bank Loans and Investments Money Supply Federal Cash Receipts From and Payments to the Public THE NATION S ECONOMIC BUDGET THE NATION S ECONOMIC BUDGET The Nation s Economic Budget dollar total increased by 4 percent from the 1st half to the 2nd half of 1948 The Government surplus declined sharply as receipts fell and payments rose BILLIONS OF DOLLARS TOTAL GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT 1948 FIRST HALF A N N U A L RATES SEASONALLY ADJUSTED 1948 SECOND HALF 1948 FIRST HALF Transfer paymenis CONSUMERS EXCESS OF EXPENDITURES RECElPTS t 0 CONSUMER SAVING EXCESS OF INVESTMENT INTERNATIONAL EXCESS OF INVESTMENT GOVERNMENT FEDERAL STATE AND LOCAL CASH SURPLUS SECOND HALF Transfer payments CONSUMERS j CONSUMER J SAVING EXCESS OF INVESTMENT INTERNATIONAL EXCESS OF INVESTMENT GOVERNMENT FEDERAL STATE AND LOCAL TRANSFER PAfMENTS ARE INCLUDED IN RECEIPTS OR EXPENDITURES OF THE SEPARATE ACCOUNTS BUT NOT IN THE TOTAL GROSS N A T I O N A L PRODUCT INCLUDES AN ADJUSTMENT OF 2 8 BILLION IN FIRST HALF AND 2 3 BILLION IN SECOND HALF SOURCE SEE ECONOMIC REPORT OF THE PRESIDENT JANUARY 1949 APPENDIX A CASH SURPLUS PRICES CONSUMERS PRICES In November consumer prices declined for the second straight month The drop in food prices accounted for the decline as other prices showed only slight changes PERCENT OF 1935 39 AVERAGE PERCENT OF 1935 39 AVERAGE ALSO INCLUDES HOUSEFURNISHINGS FUEL ELECTRICITY C AND MISCELLANEOUS GOODS AND SERVICES NOT SHOWN ON CHART COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC A D V I S E R S SOURCE DEPARTMENT OF LABOR All items 1 Period 1939 monthly average 1940 monthly average 1941 monthly average 1942 monthly average 1943 monthly average 1944 monthly average 1945 monthly average 1946 monthly average 1947 monthly average 1947 October November December 1948 January February March April May June July August September October November 1 Apparel Also includes housefurnishings fuel electricity ice and miscellaneous goods and services NOTE Prices are for moderate income families in large cities Source Department of Labor Rent Food WHOLESALE PRICES Wholesale prices dropped in December to a level slightly below December 1947 Farm and food prices accounted for most of the decline Other than farm and food prices registered a small decrease in December PERCENT OF 1926 AVERAGE PERCENT OF 1926 AVERAGE WEEKLY INDEX x FARM PRODUCTS 180 ALL COMMODITIES IOO OCT NOV COUNCIL SOURCE DEPARTMENT OF LABOR OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS All commodities Period monthly average monthly average monthly average monthly average monthly average June 1947 monthly average 1948 January February March April Mav ivio June July August September October Novemberl December Week ended Dec Farm products Foods Other than farm and foods Estimates based on incomplete data The weekly index presented here is a revised index which permits direct comparison with the monthly index It is not comparable with the old weekly index which does not permit such a comparison Source Department of Labor DEC PRICES RECEIVED AND PAID BY FARMERS Farm prices continued down from November to December but less rapidly than during the two preceding months The parity index again fell l percentage point PERCE NT OF 1910 14 AVERAGE 350 PERCENT OF 1910 14 AViIRAGE 350 MONTHLY AVERAGE PRICES f RECEIVED n S l X 4toh l fc it I5U ICES PAID INCL INTEREST TAXES S PR y r r PARIT Y V s 100 RATIO i i 40 i 41 i 42 i 43 i M J F M A M J 1 J A S O N D J SOURCE DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC A D V I S E R s Prices paid by Prices received l farmers includ Parity ratio 3 ing interest by farmers and taxes 2 Period 1939 monthly average 1940 monthly average 1941 monthly average 1942 monthly average 1943 monthly average monthly average 1945 monthly average 1946 monthly average 1947 monthly average 1947 November December 1948 January February March April May June July August September October November December i i i i i 1 i i i i i F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D August 1909 July Ratio of prices received to prices paid interest and taxes Source Department of Agriculture 0 STOCK PRICES Stock prices in December averaged slightly lower than in November PERCENT OF 1935 39 AVERAGE 175 PERCENT OF 1935 39 AVERAGE 175 MONTHLY AVERAGE RAILROADS I 1939 SOURCE I 40 I 41 STANDARD J 42 43 AND POOR S I 44 I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D CORPORATION COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC A D V I S E R S Combined index l Period 1939 monthly average 1940 monthly average 1941 monthly average 1942 monthly average 1943 monthly average 1944 monthly average 1945 monthly average 1946 monthly average 1947 monthly average 1947 November December 1948 January February March April May June July August September October November December Industrials Railroads Utilities Combined index prior to June was based on 402 common stocks and included 354 industrials 20 railroads and 28 utilities thereafter 416 common stocks are represented with 365 industrials 20 railroads and 31 utilities Source Standard Poor s Corporation LABOR FORCE Unemployment rose slightly in December as agricultural employment registered a seasonal decline 1941 SOURCE DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC Thousands of persons 14 years of age and over Civilians employed Total labor force including In nonIn agriarmed agricultural Total culture forces industries Period 1941 monthly 1944 monthly 1945 monthly 1946 monthly 1947 monthly average average average average average Unemployed December January February March April May June July August September October November December October November Armed forces NOTE Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding Source Department of Commerce EMPLOYMENT IN BUSINESS AND GO ERNMEMT A decline of 200 000 in employment in nondurable goods manufacturing in November was largely offset by increased employment in trade MILLIONS OF WAGE AND SALARY WORKERS 12 SOURCE Department of MILLIONS OF WAGE AND SALARY WORKERS 12 Council of Economic Advi Labor Thousands of wage and salary workers 1 Durable manufacturing Period 59 monthly 13 monthly 16 monthly 17 monthly average average average average 17 October November December January February March April Transportation and Finance and Government Federal public service State local utilities Contract construction Mining Trade May June July August September October 2 November December 2 Nondurable manufacturing Includes all full and part time wage and salary workers in nonagricultural establishments who worked or received pay during the pay period ending arest the 15th of the month Excludes proprietors self employed persons domestic servants and personnel of the armed forces Total derived from this Die not comparable with estimates of nonagricultural employment of the civilian labor force reported by the Department of Commerce p 6 which include aprietors self employed persons and domestic servants which count persons as employed when they are not at work because of industrial disputes and lich are based on an enumeration of population whereas the estimates in this table are based on reports from employing establishments 2 Preliminary estimate December data became available after chart was prepared Source Department of Labor AVERAGE WEEKLY HOURS Average weekly hours in major nonmanufacturing industries declined slightly in October HOURS PER WEEK HOURS PER WEEK ALL MANUFACTURING INDUSTRIES BITUMINOUS COAL MINING 40 r I RETAIL TRADE PRIVATE BUILDING CONSTRUCTION MONTHLY A V E R A G E I SOURCE DEPARTMENT OF LABOR Hours per week selected industries All manufacturing industries Period 1939 monthly 1941 monthly 1944 monthly 1945 monthly 1946 monthly 1947 monthly 1948 January February March April May June July August September October 3 November 33 December 1 2 3 Private building construction l Retail trade average average average average average average 1947 October November December Bituminous coal mining Covers only employees at the site of privately financed building projects Based on pay period during coal stoppage Preliminary estimate Source Department of Labor WORK STOPPAGES Work stoppages in November were at the low levels which have been characteristic of the past several months MILLIONS OF MAN DAYS IDLE 25 MILLIONS OF MAN DAYS IDLE PEAK MONTH SOURCE J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J DEPARTMENT OF LABOR 1 Preliminary estimate N D COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS Man davs idle thousands Period 1939 Monthly average April peak month 1940 Monthly average 1941 Monthly average April peak month 1942 Monthly average 1943 Monthly average June peak month 1944 Monthly average 1945 Monthly average October peak month 1946 Monthlv average February peak month 1947 Monthly average April peak month 1948 April11 May 1 June1 July 1 August September1 October 1 November 1 A S Man days idle as percent of estimated available working time Source Department of Labor I PRODUCTION AND BUSINESS ACTIVITY INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION Industrial production continued at postwar peak levels in November Preliminary indicate a decrease from November December figures PERCENT OF 1935 39 AVERAGE Points in Total Index 250 h I h I 150 MANUFACTURES NONDURABLE GOO MANUFACTURES DURABLE GOODS X J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O PRELIMINARY ESTIMATE SOURCE Board of Govei seasonally adjusted Points in total index average for total Indexes Period Manufactures Total industrial production Total Durable Nonduragoods ble goods monthly average 1943 monthly average 1945 monthly average 1946 monthly average 1947 monthly average 1948 monthly average L 1947 November December 1948 1 January February March April May June July August September October l November 1 December 1 10 Preliminary estimate Manufactures Mining Durable goods Nondurable goods Source Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System Mining N D DURABLE set new postwar highs Production of lumber rly months of the year PERCENT OF A V E R A G E PERCENT OF 1935 39 AVERAGE RANSPORTATION EQUIPMENT LUMBER AND PRODUCTS F1 f I QQ JL LJ J 1 1 l i t 1 1 1 I IRON AND STEEL 300 MO NTHLY AVERAGE AM Smi k TT V I Ij o I I 1 1 I K T y V i II l1 1 l1 iii COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS SOURCE EOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL R E S E R V E SYSTEM seasonally adjusted Transportation equipment Period monthly average 1943 monthly average 1945 monthly average 1946 monthly average 1947 monthly average 1947 October November December 1948 January February March April May June July August September October November 1 Iron and steel Lumber and products Preliminary estimate Source Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System 11 PRODUCTION OF SELECTED NONDURABLE MANUFACTURES In November most nondurables were being produced at rates in excess of the previous month Textile production was somewhat lower PERCENT OF 1935 39 AVERAGE PERCENT OF 1935 39 AVERAGE TEXTILES AND PRODUCTS PETROLEUM AND COAL PRODUCTS MONTHLY AVERAGE MANUFACTURED FOOD PRODUCTS CHEMICAL PRODUCTS IS SOURCE BOARD OF GOVEPWORS OF THE FEDERAL R E S E R V E SYSTEM COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC A D V I S E R S seasonally adjusted Textiles and products Period Petroleum and coal products Manufactured food products Chemical products monthly average 1943 monthly average 1945 monthly average 1946 monthly average 1947 monthly average October November December January February March April May June July August September October 1 November Preliminary estimate Source Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System 12 NEW CONSTRUCTION The decline in the volume of construction activity in December was seasonal The value of private construction was about equal to December 1947 while public construction was almost 40 higher MILLIONS OF DOLLARS MILLIONS OF DOLLARS I OOO A S 0 N D 1946 INCLUD S PUBLIC RESIDENTIAL CONSTRUCTION SOURCE DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE AND DEPARTMENT OF LABOR COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS Millions of dollars Private construction Total new construction Period 1939 monthly average 1942 monthly average 1944 monthly average 1945 monthly average 1946 monthly average 1947 monthly average 1947 November December 1948 January February March April May r T June J u l y August September October November December Total private Residential nonfarm Other Federal State and local l Includes public residential construction Preliminary estimate NOTE Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding Sources Department of Commerce and Department of Labor 13 NEW HOUSING STARTS Starts have been declining since spring and in recent weeks have been running below the 1947 rate THOUSANDS OF UNITS THOUSANDS OF UNITS RURAL NONFARM 40 URBAN M J J 20 J J 1947 A 1946 M J J A S 1948 SOURCE DEPARTMENT OF LABOR New nonfarm units conventional and prefabricated l Period Total 1946 monthly average 1947 monthly average 1947 June July August September October November December 1948 1 Januarv February March April OU O J Mav June Julv 2 August September 2 October 2 November22 December Urban Rural nonfarm New nonfarm family dwelling units Temporary units are excluded after 1947 when the program ended Preliminary estimate NOTE Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding Source Department of Labor 14 EXPENDITURES FOR NEW PLANT AND EQUIPMENT Nonagricultural business expenditures for plant and equipment are expected to show a seasonal decline in the first quarter of 1949 but present estimates run above first quarter of 1948 Railroad and utility investment continues to increase in relative importance BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLAR 25 25 ANN UAL TOTALS 15 TRANSPORTATION AND ELECTRIC AND GAS NOT ADJUSTED FOR SEASONAL VARIATION SOURCES SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE COMMISSION AND DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS Millions of dollars annual rates not adjusted for seasonal Transportation Total i Period Manufacturing Electric and gas utilities Mining Railroad First quarter Second quarter Third quarter Fourth quarter 1948 First quarter Second quarter Third quarter 4 Fourth quarter 1949 First quarter 4 Other Commercial and miscellaneous Excludes agriculture 2 Includes trade service finance and communication 3 Based on actual expenditures for first three quarters 4 and estimates for the fourth quarter Estimates based on anticipated capital expenditures of business NOTE These figures do not agree with the totals included in the gross national product estimates of the Department of Commerce principally because the latter cover agricultural investment and also certain equipment and construction outlays charged to current expense Figures for 1939 44 are Federal Reserve Board estimates based on Securities and Exchange Commission and other data Detail will not necessarily add to totals because annual rates are based on quarterly figures rounded to the nearest Sources Securities and Exchange Commission and Department of Commerce except as noted 15 NEW CORPORATE SECURITY ISSUES New rate issues in 3rd quarter of 1948 were below those of the previous as a year ago Three fifths of the proceeds were earmarked for quarter but at the same plant and equipment BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 3 0 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 3 0 QUARTERLY AVERAGE J O SOURCE SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE COMMISSION COUNCIL OF E C O N O M I C A D V I S E R S Millions of dollars Proposed uses of net proceeds Estimated net proceeds Period New money Total quarterly average quarterly average quarterly average quarterly average quarterly average 1947 First quarter Second quarter Third quarter Fourth quarter 1948 First quarter Second quarter Third quarter Retirement of debt and stock l Includes small amount for other purposes NOTE Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding Source Securities and Exchange Commission Working capital Plant and equipment INVENTORIES AND SALES Retail sales through November showed a somewhat less than normal autumn rise BILL IONS OF DOLLARS B ILLIONS OF DOLLARS MANUFACTURING WHOLESALE NOT ADJUSTED FOR SEAS DNAL VARIATION NOT ADJUSTED FOR SEASONAL VARIATION INVENTORIES yv sj S SALES J X f INVENTORIES BILL IONS i i i i i 1 i i i i I I i l i 1 l i i i i i PERCE NT OF 1935 39 AVERAGE OF DOLLARS DEPARTMENT STORES RETAIL 30 400 SEASONALLY ADJUSTED SEASONALLY ADJUSTED 20 SALES X V INVENTORIES j s S INVENTORIES Si VLES 0 i i i i i 1 i i i i i l i 1 i l 1 i i l i l II l i l 1 l l i l l i i l i i 1 l i i i i SALES ARE TOTAL FOR MONTH AND INVENTORIES ARE BOOK VALUE END OF MONTH i i i i i l i i i i 1948 BOOK VALUE OF INVENTORIES END OF MONTH SOURCES DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE AND BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM Manufacturing l Period Inventories 3 Sales i i i i i 1 i i i i i 1947 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS Wholesale l Inventories 8 Retail 2 Sales 4 Inventories Department stores Sales Sales seasonally adjusted 5 Millions of dollars 946 March June September December r August September October November December 948 January February March April May June July August September October 6 6 November Inventories Indexes computed from data on retail value of sales for month and retail book value of inventories end of month 6 Preliminary estimate Sources Department of Commerce and Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System Not adjusted for seasonal variation Adjusted for seasonal variation Book value end of month Total for month 17 EXPORTS AND IMPORTS Exports fell 20 percent in November to the lowest level in two years as the maritime strike hit the East Coast The value of imports fell 10 percent MILLIONS OF DOLLARS I 60C MILLIONS OF DOLLARS 1 600 MONTHLY AVERAGES w X J 1945 F M A M F M A M RECORDED MERCHANDISE EXPORTS INCLUDING REEXPORTS RECORDED GENERAL MERC HA NOISE IMPORTS J J A ND CIVILIAN SUPPLIES FOR OCCUPIED AREAS SOURCES DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE DEPARTMENT OF THE ARMY AND DEPARTMENT OF THE NAVY COUNCIL OF Millions of dollars Exports l Period 1948 January February March April May June July August September October November 1 J Excess of exports monthly average 1943 monthly average 1945 monthly average 1946 monthly average 1947 monthly average 1947 August September October November December Imports Recorded merchandise exports including reexports and civilian supplies for occupied areas Recorded general merchandise imports Sources Department of Commerce Department of the Army and Department of the Navy 18 20O PURCHASING POWER NATIONAL INCOME A steady rise throughout 1948 brought total national income for the year to 224 billion dollars about 10 percent higher than for 1947 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 250 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 250 ANNUAL TOTALS I COMPENSATION OF SOURCE DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC A D V I S E R S Billions of dollars Total national income Period Compensation of employees Corporate profProprietors1 its and rental Net interest toryand invenvaluation income adjustment Annual rates seasonally adjusted 1947 First quarter Second quarter Third quarter Fourth quarter First quarter Second quarter Third quarter 1 Fourth quarter Preliminary estimate Not available NOTE Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding Source Department of Commerce except fourth quarter 1948 19 CORPORATE PROFITS Corporate profits so far this year are running above the 1947 levels BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 40 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 40 ANNUAL TOTALS v DIVIDEND PAYMENTS XXy xs s s v w K v PROFITS SOURCE 1943 DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS Billions of dollars Corporate profits before taxes Period Corporate tax liability Corporate profits after taxes Total Dividend payments Undistributed profits Annual rates seasonally adjusted 1947 First quarter Second quarter Third quarter Fourth quarter First quarter Second quarter Third quarter Preliminary estimate NOTE No allowance has been made for inventory valuation adjustment See p 19 for profits before taxes and inventory valuation adjustment Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding Source Department of Commerce PERSONAL INCOME Personal incomes continued to rise in November for about one half of the total rise An increase in proprietors income accounted BILLIONS OF D O L L A R S 250 BILLIONS OF D O L L A R S 250 A M J J A S 1948 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC A D V I S E R S SOURCE DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE Billions of dollars Total personal income Period Salaries wages Proprietors and other and rental income labor income Dividends and interest Social security and GI payments Annual rates seasonally adjusted 1947 October November December 1948 January February March April May June July August September October 1 November Preliminary estimate NOTE Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding Source Department of Commerce 21 CONSUMER INCOME SPENDING AND SAVING At the end of the year consumers saving was apparently running at an annual rate of about 15 billion dollars considerably more than the estimates for 1946 and 1947 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 250 ANNUAL RATES SEASONALLY ADJUSTED 200 DISPOSABLE PERSONAL INCOME 1939 SOURCE COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC A D V I S E R S DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE Billions of dollars t Disposable personal income Period Less Personal consumption expenditures Equals Personal saving Annual rates seasonally adjusted 1947 First quarter Second quarter Third quarter Fourth quarter 1948 First quarter Second quarter Third quarter 2 Fourth quarter Income less taxes Preliminary estimate NOTE Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding Source Department of Commerce except fourth quarter 1948 PER CAPITA INCOME The last quarter of 1948 registered a moderate gain in the real purchasing power of consumers reflecting mainly a reversal of the upward trend in consumers prices DOLLARS DOLLARS 1 600 I 6OO SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES 1947 DOLLARS CURRENT DOLLARS PERSONAL INCOME LESS CURRENT DOLLARS DIVIDED BY THE CONSUMERS PRICE INDEX SOURCES TAXES DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE LABOR Per capita disposable personal income Current 1947 dollars dollars Annual rates seasonally adjusted 1947 First quarter Second quarter Third quarter Fourth quarter 1948 First quarter Second quarter Third quarter 4 Fourth quarter ON THE BASE AND DEPARTMENT OF Period I Consumers price index Not adjusted for seasonal variation Income less taxes Current dollars divided by the consumers price index on the base The consumers price index has been roughly adjusted to take account of the understatement from December 1941 February 1947 This adjustment is in line with the report of the Mitchell Committee The unadjusted index will be found on page 2 4 Preliminary estimate Sources Department of Commerce and Department of Labor except fourth quarter 23 AVERAGE HOURLY EARNINGS n upward movement in real hourly earnings in October was due chiefly to the decline in the c ost of living DOLLA RS PER HOUR D O L L A R S PER HOUR RETAIL TRADE MANUFACTURING DOLLARS DOLLARS CUR RENT DOLLARS GUF RENT DOLLARS i i i i i I i i i f i i i t i i 1 i i i i i 1946 i I i i 1 i i i i i i i i i i 1 i i I i i 1948 I I PRIVATE BUILDING CONSTRUCTION BITUMINOUS COAL MINING I 1946 DOLLARS j f ZZZ Z DOLLARS JU J A T i CUF CUF RENT DOLLARS RENT DOLLARS i i i i 1 i i i i i i i 1 i i i i i i i i i i 1i i i i i CURRENT DOLLARS DIVIDED BY CONSUMERS PRICE INDEX ON THE BASE SOURCE DEPARTMENT OF COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS LABOR Selected industries Manufacturing Period 1939 monthly average 1941 monthly average 1944 monthly average 1945 monthly average 1946 monthly average 1947 monthly average 1947 September October November December 1948 January February March April May June July August September 4 October 4 November December 4 Current dollars dollars Retail trade Current dollars dollars Bituminous coal mining Current dollars Covers only employees at the site of privately financed building projects Current dollars divided by consumers price index on the base See note 3 to table on page 23 Source Department of Labor 1947 dollars 2 3 1 Private building construction l Current dollars dollars Based on pay period during coal stoppage 4 Prp lnninfl rv pstima t p Preliminary estimate AVERAGE WEEKLY EARNINGS Declines in average weekly earnings in several nonmanufacturing industries in October were primarily due to the somewhat shorter average hours of work Preliminary data for November show average weekly earnings in manufacturing unchanged DOLt A R S PER WEEK DOLLARS PER WEEK RETAIL TRADE MANUFACTURING CURRENT DOLLARSV X trOp s CURRENT DOLLARS DOLLARS X X 1947 DOLLARS l i i i i 11i l l l t i i 1l i i i i i i i i i 1i i i i i I 1 1 1 I I PRIVATE BUILDING CONSTRUCTION BITUMINOUS COAL MINING s i v c i CUR RENT DOLLARS 80 CURRENT DOLLARS DOLLARS DOLLARS i I i I i 1 i 1l 1 l I M 1 1 1i i j I I SOURCE DEPARTMENT OF LABOR COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS Selected industries Manufacturing Period 1939 monthly average 1941 monthly average 1944 monthly average 1945 monthly average 1946 monthly average 1947 monthly average 1947 September October November December January February March April May June July August September October 4 November 44 December 1 3 Current dollars dollars Retail trade Current dollars dollars Covers only employees at the site of privately financed building projects Current dollars divided by consumers price index on the base See note 3 to table on page 23 Source Department of Labor Bituminous coal mining Current dollars dollars Private building construction Current dollars dollars Based on pay period during coal stoppage Preliminary estimate 25 FARM INCOME Cash farm income in November down seasonally from October was about equal to that in November 1947 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS CASH RECEIPTS 41 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS M A M J 44 FROM MARKETING AND GOVERNMENT J A S 1 J 1947 A S 0 N D PAYMENTS FARM INCOME IN CURRENT DOLLARS DIVIDED BY THE INDEX OF PRICES PAID INTEREST AND TAXES ON THE BASE 1939 too SOURCE DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS Farm income millions of current dollars Period 1939 monthly average 1940 monthly average monthly average 1942 monthly average 1943 monthly average 1944 monthly average 1945 monthly average monthly average 1947 monthly average October November December January February March April May June July August September October 4 November Prices paid by farmers incl interest and taxes a Farm income millions of 1939 dollars 3 1 Includes cash farm income from marketings and Government payments Converted from the reported base to the base Farm income in current dollars divided by prices paid by farmers interest and taxes Preliminary Source Department of Agriculture 26 J 1948 PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES Expenditures for both durable and nondurable goods increased less in 1948 than in 1947 for services however increased more than in the preceding year Expenditures BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS ANNUAL RATES SEASONALLY ADJUSTED 1939 SOURCE DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE except fourth quarter of Billions of dollars Personal consumption expenditures Period Nondurable goods Total i Durable goods Services Annual rates seasonally adjusted 1947 First quarter Second quarter Third quarter Fourth quarter 1948 First quarter Second quarter Third quarter Fourth quarter Preliminary estimate NOTE Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding Source Department of Commerce except fourth quarter 27 CONSUMER CREDIT Total consumer credit showed an expected seasonal increase in November but the rise was much less than that of a year ago BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 16 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS M A M J 1943 END OF YEAR A M J J A 1946 J A 1947 END OF MONTH SINGLE PAYMENT LOANS AND SERVICE CREDIT Billions of dollars Total consumer credit outstanding End of period October November December 1948 January February March April May June July August September October November Instalment credit L Charge accounts Other consumer credit Includes automobile and other sale credit and repair and modernization loans insured by Federal Housing Administration 2 Includes single payment loans of commercial banks and pawnbrokers and service credit 3 Preliminary estimate NOTE Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding Source Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System 28 MONEY BANKING AND FEDERAL FINANCE BANK LOANS AND INVESTMENTS After a slight decline in October bank loans moved up sharply in November BILLIONS OF D O L L A R S BILLIONS OF DOLLARS TOTAL All commercial hanks INVESTMENT IN j j i U S GOVERNMENT SECURITIES jjjj J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N O 1948 END OF YEAR END OF MONTH PRELIMINARY ESTIMATE Billions of dollars Investments Total investments Total U S Government securities Other securities January February March ApriL May June July 40 6 August September 41 6 October November 1 Preliminary estimate NOTE Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding Source Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System October November December MONEY SUPPLY A rise in currency holdings slightly increased the total money supply in November BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 150 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D 1946 END OF YEAR PRELIMINARY ESTIMATE END OF MONTH Billions of dollars Total money supply End of period October November December 1948 January February March April May June July August September October 3 November Currency outside banks Adjusted demand deposits U S Government deposits Includes demand deposits other than interbank and U S Government less cash items in process of collection a Beginning December 1938 includes TJ S Treasurer s time deposits open account 1 Preliminary estimate NOTE Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding Source Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System 30 FEDERAL CASH RECEIPTS FROM AND PAYMENTS TO THE PUBLIC Cash payments during the fourth quarter exceeded receipts by about 500 million BILLIONS OF DOLLARS B I L L I O N S OF DOLLARS 20 20 QUARTERLY TOTALS NOT ADJUSTED FOR SEASONAL I 2 PRELIMINARY ESTIMATE SEE NOTE ON TABLE BELOW SOURCE TREASURY DEPARTMENT COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS Millions of dollars Federal cash receipts from the public 1946 First quarter Second quarter Third quarter Fourth quarter 1947 First quarter Second quarter Third quarter Fourth quarter 1948 First quarter Second quarter Third quarter 1 l Fourth quarter Federal cash payments to the public f Calendar year by quarters Excess of receipts or payments Preliminary estimate NOTE Payments to the public include refunds of receipts These refunds will be reported as a deduction from receipts consistent with the January 1949 Economic Report and the 1950 Budget as soon as the historical data can be converted to a comparable basis Source Treasury Department For sale by the Superintendent of Documents TJ S Government Printing Office Washington 25 D C Price 15 cents 31

Consumer Credit

DATE: January 1949

PART OF:

Economic Indicators : January 1949

AUTHOR:

Council of Economic Advisers (U.S.)

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Council of Economic Advisers (U.S.) , United States. Congress. Joint Committee on the Economic Report, 1946-1956 and United States. Congress. Joint Economic Committee, 1956-. "Consumer Credit," in Council of Economic Advisers (U.S.) , United States. Congress. Joint Committee on the Economic Report, 1946-1956 and United States. Congress. Joint Economic Committee, 1956-. "January 1949," Economic Indicators (January 1949) : 32-32. https://fraser.stlouisfed.org/title/1/item/231/toc/223537 , accessed on December 9, 2019.

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Economic Data