Full text of Economic Indicators : January 1949

The full text on this page is automatically extracted from the file linked above and may contain errors and inconsistencies.

Congress, 1st Session

&, Loots rubric Libran.'
F.fjBEfW rtpi

Joint Committee Print

Economic Indicators
JANUARY 1949
Prepared for the Joint Committee on the Economic Report




by the Council of Economic Advisers
and printed for the use of
the Joint Committee on the Economic Report

UNITED STATES
GOVERNMENT PRINTING
WASHINGTON : 1949

OFFICE

JOINT COMMITTEE ON THE ECONOMIC REPORT
(Created pursuant to Sec. 5 (a) of Public Law 304, 79th Cong.)
ROBERT A. TAFT, Ohio, Chairman
JESSE P. WOLCOTT, Michigan, Vice Chairman
RALPH E. FLANDERS, Vermont
ARTHUR V. WATKINS, Utah
JOSEPH C. O'MAHONEY, Wyoming
FRANCIS J. MYERS, Pennsylvania
JOHN SPARKMAN, Alabama

CHRISTIAN A. HERTER, Massachusetts
ROBERT F. RICH, Pennsylvania
EDWARD J. HART, New Jersey
WRIGHT PATMAN, Texas
WALTER B. HUBER, Ohio
FRED E. BERQUIST, Assistant Staff Director
JOHN W. LEHMAN, Clerk
WILLIAM H. MOORE, Economist

To the Members of Congress:

From the time the Joint Committee on the Economic
Report was established, its members realized that one of
its basic needs was a concise and meaningful picture of
current economic trends and developments.
Fortunately, the Joint Committee finds that Economic
Indicators, a set of basic charts and tables compiled
monthly by the Council of Economic Advisers, admirably
fills this need. While this material was prepared primarily for the use of the President, the Council and other
officials in the executive offices, the Council has made it
available to the Joint Committee.
Other Members of Congress have also expressed an
interest in being able to obtain a quick picture of current
economic facts without having to go through voluminous and specialized documents. In addition,
businessmen, farm leaders, labor organizations, and representatives of the press and radio have indicated their
desire for this information. Since nothing contained

Digitized
11 for FRASER


in these charts and tables is of a confidential nature they
have urged that the material be made available to the
general public.
Accordingly, the Joint Committee has for the past
several months provided the Congress and the public
with a limited number of copies of Economic Indicators.
The response to these issues has indicated such widespread interest that the Committee has arranged to
release Economic Indicators each month as a committee
print until action can be taken on authorizing the publication on a more permanent basis.
Comments or suggestions with respect to possible
improvements in this presentation will always be
welcome.

Chairman, Joint Committee on the Economic Report.

Letter of Transmitted
Hon. ROBERT A. TAFT, Chairman,
Joint Committee on the Economic Report,
United States Congress, Washington, D. C.

DEAR SENATOR: The Council of Economic Advisers is happy to cooperate with the
Joint Committee on the Economic Report in your plans to make Economic Indicators
available to the Congress as a whole and to the general public.
In carrying out its mandate under the Employment Act of 1946, the Council has
found it desirable to bring together in concise and graphic form the most important facts
showing current trends in the Nation's economy. Thus the Executive Office is in a better
position to point up the key problems of national economic policy and to promote the
improvement and coordination of the Federal Government's widespread statistical services.
We have realized, of course, that this material has a potential usefulness not only to
the President, the Council and the executive departments, but also to the Congress.
Furthermore, its usefulness to the general public has been impressed upon us, particularly
by the representatives of business, labor, agriculture, and consumer organizations with
whom we regularly consult.
We believe the Joint Committee will perform a service of real value by giving wide
circulation to this material.
Sincerely yours,




Chairman.

^^^^

/W

Vice Chairman.

A.

in

Contents
THE NATION'S ECONOMIC BUDGET
The Nation's Economic Budget

Page

1

PRICES
Consumers' Prices
Wholesale Prices
Prices Received and Paid by Farmers. .
Stock Prices

2
3
4
5

EMPLOYMENT
Labor Force
Employment in Business and Government
Average Weekly Hours
Work Stoppages

6
7
8
9

PRODUCTION AND BUSINESS ACTIVITY
Industrial Production
Production of Selected Durable Manufactures
Production of Selected Nondurable Manufactures
New Construction
New Housing Starts
Expenditures for New Plant and Equipment
New Corporate Security Issues
Inventories and Sales
Exports and Imports

10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18

PURCHASING POWER
National Income
Corporate Profits
Personal Income
Consumer Income, Spending, and Saving
Per Capita Income
Average Hourly Earnings
Average Weekly Earnings
Farm Income
Personal Consumption Expenditures
Consumer Credit

19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28

MONEY, BANKING, AND FEDERAL FINANCE
Bank Loans and Investments
Money Supply
Federal Cash Receipts From and Payments to the Public




29
30
31

THE NATION'S ECONOMIC BUDGET
THE NATION'S ECONOMIC BUDGET
The Nation's Economic Budget dollar total increased by 4 percent from the 1st half to the 2nd half
of 1948. The Government surplus declined sharply as receipts fell and payments rose.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS

TOTAL (GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT)
1948, FIRST HALF

A N N U A L RATES, SEASONALLY ADJUSTED

1948, SECOND HALF

1948, FIRST HALF
Transfer paymenis -

CONSUMERS

EXCESS OF
EXPENDITURES (-), RECElPTS(-t-)
0
CONSUMER
SAVING

EXCESS OF
INVESTMENT
INTERNATIONAL
EXCESS OF
INVESTMENT

GOVERNMENT (FEDERAL.STATE AND LOCAL)
CASH
SURPLUS

61.9 *'»

1948, SECOND HALF
Transfer payments •

CONSUMERS

j CONSUMER
J SAVING

EXCESS OF
INVESTMENT
INTERNATIONAL
EXCESS OF
INVESTMENT

GOVERNMENT (FEDERAL.STATE AND LOCAL)
57.3 **

TRANSFER PAfMENTS ARE INCLUDED IN RECEIPTS OR EXPENDITURES OF THE SEPARATE ACCOUNTS BUT NOT
IN THE TOTAL GROSS N A T I O N A L PRODUCT.
INCLUDES AN ADJUSTMENT OF + $ 2.8 BILLION IN FIRST HALF AND - $ 2.3 BILLION IN SECOND HALF.
SOURCE: SEE ECONOMIC REPORT OF THE PRESIDENT, JANUARY 1949, APPENDIX A.




CASH
SURPLUS

PRICES
CONSUMERS' PRICES
In November consumer prices declined for the second straight month. The drop in food prices
accounted for the decline, as other prices showed only slight changes.
PERCENT OF 1935-39 AVERAGE

PERCENT OF 1935-39 AVERAGE

225

225

200 -

200

175

150

125

100

100

1939

1940

1942

1941

^ALSO INCLUDES HOUSEFURNISHINGS, FUEL, ELECTRICITY, /C£,

1944

1943

AND MISCELLANEOUS GOODS AND SERVICES,

1945

1946

1947

1948

NOT SHOWN ON CHART.
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC A D V I S E R S

SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR.

[1935-39=1001
All items 1

Period
1939 monthly average
1940 monthly average
1941 monthly average
1942 monthly average
1943 monthly average
1944 monthly average
1945 monthly average
1946 monthly average
1947 monthly average-1947: October
November
December
1948: January...
February
March
April
May
June
July__.
August
September
October
November
1

_

__ _

.._

..

.

__

_

Food

Apparel

99. 4
100. 2
105. 2
116. 5
123. 6
125. 5
128. 4
139. 3
159. 2

95. 2
96. 6
105. 5
123. 9
138. 0
136 1
139. 1
159 6
193. 8

100. 5
101. 7
106. 3
124.2
129. 7
138. 8
145. 9
160. 2
185. 8

104. 3
104. 6
106. 2
108. 5
108. 0
108 2
108. 3
108. 6
111.2

163. 8
164. 9
167. 0

201. 6
202 7
206. 9

189. 0
190. 2
191.2

114. 9
115. 2
115. 4

168. 8
167. 5
166. 9
169. 3
170. 5
171. 7
173. 7
174. 5
174. 5
173. 6
172. 2

209. 7
204. 7
202. 3
207. 9
210.9
214. 1
216. 8
216. 6
215. 2
211. 5
207. 5

192. 1
195. 1
196. 3
196. 4
197. 5
196. 9
197. 1
199. 7
201.0
201.6
201. 4

115. 9
116. 0
116. 3
116. 3
116.7
117. 0
117. 3
117. 7
118. 5
118,7
118. 8

Also includes housefurnishings, fuel, electricity, ice, and miscellaneous goods and services.
NOTE.—Prices are for moderate-income families in large cities.
Source: Department of Labor.



Rent

WHOLESALE PRICES
Wholesale prices dropped in December to a level slightly below December 1947. Farm and food
prices accounted for most of the decline. Other than farm and food prices registered a small
decrease in December.
PERCENT OF 1926 AVERAGE

PERCENT OF 1926 AVERAGE
. 2.20

220

WEEKLY INDEX

200

200

x:

FARM PRODUCTS

180

. ALL COMMODITIES

160

140

IOO

80

1939

1946

1942

1941

1940

1947

1948

1949

OCT.

NOV.

COUNCIL

SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR.

OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

[1926=100]
All commodities

Period

1939
1940
1941
1942
1946

monthly average
monthly average
monthly average
monthly average .
monthly average
June
1947 monthly average
1948: January
February
March
April
-_ Mav
ivio^

June
July
August
September
October
Novemberl
December
Week ended:2
Dec 7 2
142
21

282
1
2

_ -- . -__
-

_

...

__
_ .

_

_

Farm products

Foods

Other than
farm and
foods

77. 1
78 6
87. 3
98. 8
121. 1
112. 9
152. 1
165. 7
160. 9
161. 4
162. 8
163. 9
166. 2
168. 7
169. 5
168. 7
165. 2
163. 9
162. 3

65. 3
67. 7
82.4
105. 9
148. 9
140. 1
181. 2
199. 2
185. 3
186. 0
186. 7
189. 1
196. 0
195.2
191.0
189.9
183. 5
180. 8
178.0

70.4
71. 3
82. 7
99.6
130. 7
112. 9
168. 7
179. 9
172.4
173. 8
176.7
177.4
181.4
188. 3
189. 5
186. 9
178. 2
174. 3
169. 8

81.3
83.0
89.0
95. 5
109. 5
105. 6
135.2
148. 3
147. 6
147.7
148. 7
149. 1
149. 5
151. 1
153. 1
153. 3
153. 1
153. 3
152.9

162. 4
161. 7
162. 5
162. 2

177.3
175. 9
179. 4
179.2

169. 7
168. 7
170. 0
169. 6

153. 4
153. 1
152. 8
152. 5

Estimates based on incomplete data.
The weekly index presented here is a revised index which permits direct comparison with the monthly
index. It is not comparable with the old weekly index which does not permit such a comparison.
Source: Department of Labor.



DEC.

1948

PRICES RECEIVED AND PAID BY FARMERS
Farm prices continued down from November to December, but less rapidly than during the two
preceding months. The parity index again fell'l percentage point.
PERCE NT OF 1910-14 AVERAGE
350

PERCENT

OF 1910-14 AViIRAGE
350

MONTHLY AVERAGE

_<

300
PRICES

f\

RECEIVED

>n,/-'-""

250

S**l

-^

\.-'X

4toh.
•• —*l»fc>
^^*it**
•••'-•'"•••*••

300

250

/

*\\

200
*•*"""*

/

/ ^~—

I5U

—*7
100

ICES PAID
(INCL. INTEREST, TAXES)

^S

^

200

PR

150

^_*

/

*^y*^ » « — » -r^^r^"
"'"'*''

PARIT Y

V^-^^s,^
100

RATIO *

50

50

i

0

1939

i
40

i
41

i
42

i
43

i

M

44

45

J

1

|

1 1

F M A M J

1
J

1 1 1

1

A S O N D J

1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1

1946

1947

1948

SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE.




COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC A D V I S E R s

Prices paid by
Prices
(includ- Parity ratio 3
received l farmers
ing interest2
by farmers
and taxes)

Period
1939 monthly average
1940 monthly average
1941 monthly average. _
1942 monthly average
1943 monthly average. _ _
1944 monthly average
1945 monthly average.
1946 monthly average
1947 monthly average
1947: November
December _
1948: January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December

i i i i i 1 i i i i i

F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D

__

_

_ .

_.

1
August 1909-July
2
1910-14-100.
3

__

77

95
100
124
159
192
195
202
233
278

124
125
132
150
162
170
174
194
231

80
94
106
119
115
116
120
120

287
301

241
245

119
123

307
279
283
291
289
295
301
293
290
277
271
268

251
248
247
249
250
251
251
251
250
249
247
247

122
112
115
117
116
118
120
117
116
111
110
109

1914=100.

Ratio of prices received to prices paid, interest, and taxes.
Source: Department of Agriculture.

0

STOCK PRICES
Stock prices in December averaged slightly lower than in November.
PERCENT OF 1935-39 AVERAGE
175

PERCENT OF 1935-39 AVERAGE
175
MONTHLY AVERAGE
RAILROADS

125

100

50

I
1939

SOURCE :

I
40

I
41

STANDARD

J
42

43

AND POOR'S

I
44

I I I I I I I I I I I
I I I I I I I I I I I
J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M - A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D
1946
1947
1948

45

CORPORATION.

COUNCIL

OF ECONOMIC A D V I S E R S

[1935-39 = 100]
Combined
index l

Period
1939 monthly average __
1940 monthly average
1941 monthly average
1942 monthly average
1943 monthly average
1944 monthly average
1945 monthly average..
1946 monthly average
1947 monthly average
^
1947: November
„
December
1948: January.
February _
March
April

__

_ « _ _ _ _

May

June
July-.
August
September
October _
November
December

___

_ _
_

94. 2
88. 1
80. 0
69. 4
91. 9
99. 8
121. 5
139 9
123. 0
123. 6
122. 4
120. 1
114. 2
116. 4
124. 6
130. 2
135. 1
131. 9
127. 1
125. 7
127. 8
120 4
119. 4

Industrials 1
94. 8
87. 9
80 4
71. 3
94. 1
101. 7
123. 3
143 4
128. 0
130. 3
129 2
126. 0
119. 2
121 8
130 8
136 9
142 7
138 9
133. 5
131 7
134 3
126 4
125. 5

Railroads *

74.7
71. 1
70. 6
66. 1
88. 7
101. 0
136. 9
143. 0
105. 3
100. 1
103. 9
106. 5
101. 9
105. 2
115.2
122. 6
125. 6
124. 7
119. 7
120. 4
120. 9
108. 8
105. 8

Utilities *
98. 6
95. 8
81. 0
61. 3
82. 1
89. 9
106. 1
120. 2
102. 9
97. 2
94. 0
95. 1
92. 6
93. 0
96.2
99. 2
100. 6
99. 5
97. 3
97. 3
97.4
94. 2
92.9

1
Combined index prior to June 23, 1948, was based on 402 common stocks, and included 354 industrials,
20 railroads, and 28 utilities; thereafter, 416 common stocks are represented, with 365 industrials, 20 railroads,
and 31 utilities.
Source: Standard & Poor's Corporation.

84471—49-




LABOR FORCE
Unemployment rose slightly in December as agricultural employment registered a seasonal decline.

1941
SOURCE.-

1944

1945

1946

1947

1946

1948

DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE.

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC

[Thousands of persons 14 years of age and over]
Civilians employed
Total labor
force, including
In nonIn agriarmed
agricultural
Total
culture
forces
industries

Period

1941 monthly
1944 monthly
1945 monthly
1946 monthly
1947 monthly

average___
average
average.....
average
average___

Unemployed

380
890
140
820
608

50, 350
53, 960
52, 820
55, 250
58, 027

41, 250
45, 010
44, 240
46, 930
49, 761

9, 100
8,950
8, 580
8,320
8,266

1,470
11,260
11, 280
3,300
1, 440

5,560
670
1,040
2,270
2, 141

December

62, 219
61,510
60, 870

59, 204
58, 595
57, 947

50, 583
50, 609
50, 985

8,622
7,985
6,962

1,327
1,294
1,280

1,687
1,621
1,643

1948: January
February
March
April
May . «
June
July
August
September
October
November
December

60, 455
61, 004
61, 005
61, 760
61, 660
64, 740
65, 135
64,511
63, 578
63, 166
63, 138
62, 828

57, 149
57, 139
57, 329
58, 330
58, 660
61,296
61, 615
61, 245
60, 312
60, 134
59, 893
59, 434

• 50,089
50, 368
50, 482
50, 883
50, 800
51, 899
52, 452
52, 801
51, 590
51, 506
51, 932
52, 059

7,060
6, 771
6,847
7,448
7,861
9,396
9, 163
8,444
8,723
8,627
7,961
7,375

1,241
1,226
1,236
1,236
1,238
1,261
1,293
1,325
1,366
1, 391
1,414
1,453

2, 065
2,639
2,440
2,193
1,761
2, 184
2,227
1,941
1,899
1,642
1,831
1,941

1947: October
November.

„_ __

57,
65,
65,
60,
61,

Armed
forces

NOTE.—Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding.
Source: Department of Commerce.




EMPLOYMENT IN BUSINESS AND GO¥ERNMEMT
A decline of 200,000 in employment in nondurable goods manufacturing in November was largely
offset by increased employment in trade.
MILLIONS OF WAGE
AND SALARY WORKERS
12

SOURCE:

Department of

MILLIONS OF WAGE
AND SALARY WORKERS

12

Council of Economic Advi

Labor

[Thousands of wage and salary workers 1
Durable
manufacturing

Period

59 monthly
13 monthly
16 monthly
17 monthly

average
average _ _
average
average

17: October
November
December

__ _

18: January
February.
March
April

__

_
_ _

May

June
July
August _
September
October 2
November _ _ _
December 2 _

_ __
__

1

__

Nondurable
manufacturing

Trade

Transportation and
Finance and Government
(Federal,
public
service
State, local)
utilities

Contract
construction

Mining

705
322
820
450

4, 610
5, 187
6,016
6, 278

3, 987
6,049
5, 607
5,450

2, 912
3, 619
4,023
4,059

1, 150
1,567
1, 661
1,921

845
917
852
911

8,083
8,062
8,080

9, 684
9,886
10, 288

6, 333
6, 343
6, 364

5, 414
5, 387
5, 638

4,097
4,077
4,071

2,099
2,046
1, 978

922
923
925

8,011
8,016
8,011
7, 786
7, 778
7, 993
8,007
8,253
8,403
8,279
8, 148
8,028

9, 622
9, 520
9, 598
9, 576
9, 617
9, 670
9, 646
9, 660
9, 733
9, 889
10, 035
10, 387

6, 403
6, 420
6, 426
6,472
6, 454
6, 389
6,399
6, 383
6, 379
6, 377
6, 376
6,354

5,498
5,492
5, 546
5, 577
5, 624
5, 607
5, 604
5, 650
5,801
5, 789
5, 714
5,994

4,020
4, 019
4, 032
3, 974
4,042
4, 105
4, 136
4, 139
4, 092
4,090
4,066
4,069

1,871
1,731
1,805
1, 933
2,052
2, 173
2,219
2,253
2, 239
2,206
2, 161
2, 109

922
914
924
817
935
950
922
952
948
941
940
937

4, 357
10, 297
7, 180
8,055

5, 720
7,084
7,335
7,846

8, 126
8, 194
8,274

8,256
8, 167
8,258
8, 164
8, 114
8, 122
8, 165
8, 188
8,294
8, 319
8,301
8,214

6,
7,
8,
9,

Includes all full- and part-time wage and salary workers in nonagricultural establishments who worked or received pay during the pay period ending
arest the 15th of the month. Excludes proprietors, self-employed persons, domestic servants, and personnel of the armed forces. Total derived from this
Die not comparable with estimates of nonagricultural employment of the civilian labor force reported by the Department of Commerce (p. 6) which include
aprietors, self-employed persons, and domestic servants; which count persons as employed when they are not at work because of industrial disputes; and
lich
are based on an enumeration of population, whereas the estimates in this table are based on reports from employing establishments.
2
Preliminary estimate. December data became available after chart was prepared.
Source: Department of Labor.



AVERAGE WEEKLY HOURS
Average weekly hours in major nonmanufacturing industries declined slightly in October.

HOURS PER WEEK

HOURS PER WEEK

• ALL MANUFACTURING INDUSTRIES

BITUMINOUS COAL MINING

40
r~~

30

— -

-

20

— :-:

:—

I0 -

-

_

—.

-

-

-

-

20

,

,
,,,,, 1

1939 41

44

1939 41

45

44

45

RETAIL TRADE

PRIVATE BUILDING CONSTRUCTION
MONTHLY A V E R A G E

I0

1939 41

44

1939 41

45

44 45

SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR.

[Hours per week, selected industries]
All manufacturing
industries

Period

1939 monthly
1941 monthly
1944 monthly
1945 monthly
1946 monthly
1947 monthly

average
average
average
average
average
average

1947: October
November
December..
1948: January
February
March.
April
May__
June
July
August. _ _ _
September
October 3
November 33 _ _
December




1
2
3

_ _ _

„ _
_

_
__ _

_ _ __

Bituminous
coal mining

Private
building
construction l

Retail trade

37. 7
40. 6
45. 2
43. 4
40. 4
40. 3

27. 1
31. 1
43. 4
42. 3
41. 6
40. 7

32.6
34. 8
39. 6
39. 0
38. 1
37. 8

43.0
42. 5
40.3
40.3
40. 5
40.2

40. 6
40. 4
41. 2

39. 9
38. 5
41. 2

38. 1
36. 6
37.9

40.0
39. 5
39.7

40. 5
40. 2
40. 4
40. 1
39. 9
40. 2
39. 8
40. 1
39. 8
39. 9
39. 7
39 9

40. 9
38. 7
40.
6
2
27. 0
40. 3
39. 9
34.2
39.4
37. 9
38. 6
37. 1

37. 2
36.7
37. 1
37. 0
37. 1
37. 9
37.8
37. 8
37.5
37. 4
36.7

39.8
40.0
39.8
39. 8
39. 9
40. 3
40.8
41.0
40.2
39. 7
39. 5

Covers only employees at the site of privately financed building projects.
Based on pay period during coal stoppage.
Preliminary estimate.
Source: Department of Labor.

WORK STOPPAGES
Work stoppages in November were at the low levels which have been characteristic of the past,
several months.
MILLIONS OF MAN-DAYS IDLE
25

MILLIONS OF MAN-DAYS

IDLE
25

20

15

10
PEAK MONTH

\

1939 40

SOURCE:

41

42

43

44

45

J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J

A S O N D J F M A M J J

DEPARTMENT OF LABOR

1

Preliminary estimate.




N* D

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

Man-davs
idle "
(thousands)

Period

1939* Monthly average
April— peak month
1940: Monthly average
1941" Monthly average
April —peak month
1942: Monthly average
1943: Monthly average
June —peak month
1944: Monthly average
1945: Monthly average
October—peak month
1946" Monthlv average
February —peak month
1947: Monthly average
April —peak month
1948: April11
_
May 1
June1
July 1
August _ 1 _ _
September
.
October 1 1
November
__

A S 0

1,484
4,902

_
- - _

559

_

_

_
-

_

-

-_

_ -

_

-

_ _

_
__

_-

_
_

__

Source: Department of Labor.

0. 28
. 10
.32

1. 13

349

.05

1, 125
4, 699

. 15

727

_
_ _

__

1, 921
7, 113

Man-days idle
as percent of
estimated available working
time

3, 168
8, 610
9, 672
22, 900
2, 993
8,540
8,000
4, 100
2,000
2, 200
1,750
2,400
2,000
1, 900

.62
.09

. 47
1.39
1. 43
4. 19
. 41
1. 19
1. 1
.6
.3
.3

.2
.3
.3

.3

I!

PRODUCTION AND BUSINESS ACTIVITY
INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION
Industrial production continued at postwar peak levels in November. Preliminary
indicate a decrease from November.

December figures

PERCENT OF 1935-39 AVERAGE
Points in Total Index

250 h

250

200 I-

200

150 h

-I 150
^MANUFACTURES:
NONDURABLE GOO

MANUFACTURES:
DURABLE GOODS

X '''

J

F

M

A

M

J

J

A

S

O

N

D

J

F

M

A

M

J

J

A

S

O

N

D

J

F

M

A

M

J

J

A

S

O

* PRELIMINARY ESTIMATE
SOURCE: Board of Govei

[1935-39 = 100, seasonally adjusted]
Points in total index,
1935-39 average for total «= 100

Indexes, 1935-39=100
Period

Manufactures
Total
industrial
production Total Durable Nonduragoods ble goods

1935-39 monthly average.
1943 monthly average
1945 monthly average
1946 monthly average
1947 monthly average
1948 monthly average L_
1947: November
December
1948 1 January
February _
March
April
May
June.
July
August _ _ _
September
October..
November 1l
December
1

10



Preliminary estimate.

100
239
203
170
187
192
192
192
193
194
191
188
192
192
186
191
192
195
194
197

100
258
214
177
194
198
199
198
201
201
200
195
197
198
191
197
199
202
200
197

100
360
274
192
220
224
224
230
229
226
229
217
221
222
219
222
224
230
228
226

100
176
166
165
172
177
179
173
178
180
177
177
178
179
169
176
178
179
177
173

Manufactures
Mining
100
132
137
134
149
155
155
156
154
155
142
147
162
159
153
159
156
158
161
157

Durable
goods
38
136
104
73
83
85
85
87
87
86
87
82
84
84
83
84
85
87
87
86

Nondurable goods
47
83
78
77
81
83
84
81
83
84
83
83
83
84
79
82
83
84
83
81

Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.

Mining
15
20
21
21
23
24
24
24
23
24
22
22
25
24
23
24
24
24
24
24

N

D

DURABLE
set new postwar highs. Production of lumber
rly months of the year.
PERCENT OF 1935- 39 A V E R A G E

PERCENT

OF 1935-39 AVERAGE

RANSPORTATION EQUIPMENT

LUMBER AND PRODUCTS
400

700

600

200

F1

.f,*******^

I QQ

^

JL.*

0
1935-39

1943 !945

LJ 'J 1 1 l i 1
1946

1 t 1 1 1 I 1 1 1 1 1

1947

1948

IRON AND STEEL
300

MO NTHLY

AVERAGE

AM&Smi&k

TT1

1
1 00

V

I
Ij
o

I I 1 ! 1 I 1 11 11

1935-39

1935-39 1943

K^^T

-y^"V-'

1943 1945

1946

i II l1 1 l1 iii

,, ,,,!

1947

1948

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

SOURCE : EOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL. R E S E R V E SYSTEM.

[1935-39=100, seasonally adjusted]
Transportation
equipment

Period
1935—39 monthly average
1943 monthly average
1945 monthly average
1946 monthly average
1947 monthly average
1947: October
November
December
1948: January . .
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October. _
November 1

....

_

_

__

.

„__

_

Lumber and
products

Iron and steel

100
734
487
232
230

100
130
110
130
144

100
208
183
150
195

232
234
244

143
150
153

204
202
205

244
232
240
237
218
223
235
231
227
236
231

155
150
151
145
142
140
142
149
143
147
150

203
203
207
177
207
207
200
207
214
221
222

1

Preliminary estimate.
Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System,




11

PRODUCTION OF SELECTED NONDURABLE
MANUFACTURES
In November most nondurables were being produced at rates in excess of the previous month.
Textile production was somewhat lower.
PERCENT OF 1935-39 AVERAGE

PERCENT OF 1935-39 AVERAGE

TEXTILES AND PRODUCTS

PETROLEUM AND COAL PRODUCTS
300

300
MONTHLY

AVERAGE

200

1935-39

43

45

1935-39

43

45

MANUFACTURED FOOD PRODUCTS

CHEMICAL PRODUCTS

400

200

100

1935-39

43

IS35-39

45

43

45

SOURCE: BOARD OF -GOVEPWORS OF THE FEDERAL R E S E R V E SYSTEM.

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC A D V I S E R S

[1935-39=100, seasonally adjusted]
Textiles and
products

Period

Petroleum
and coal
products

Manufactured food
products

Chemical
products

1935-39 monthly average
1943 monthly average
1945 monthly average
1946 monthly average
1947 monthly average

100
153
146
162
163

100
185
235
173
193

100
145
151
150
157

100
384
284
236
251

1947 : October
November
December

164
172
163

204
205
208

156
158
158

248
251
254

1948 : January
February
March
April
May
June
July___
__
August
__
September
October 1
November

179
179
175
174
176
174
154
166
168
167
164

214
215
211
213
220
221
217
222
207
217
220

158
160
158
157
159
163
160
154
163
161
160

255
252
250
249
249
256
251
259
257
255
256

_ __
__ _

1
Preliminary estimate.
Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System,

12



NEW CONSTRUCTION
The decline in the volume of construction activity in December was seasonal. The value of private
construction was about equal to December 1947 while public construction was almost 40% higher.
MILLIONS OF DOLLARS

MILLIONS OF DOLLARS

2,000

2,000

1,500

1,000

500

I.OOO

- • :-

A

1939 1942 1944 1945 1946 1947

S

0 N D

1946

*INCLUD£S PUBLIC RESIDENTIAL CONSTRUCTION

SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE AND DEPARTMENT OF LABOR

COUNCIL

OF

ECONOMIC

ADVISERS

[Millions of dollars]
Private construction
Total new
construction

Period

1939 monthly average
1942 monthly average
1944 monthly average
1945 monthly average
1946 monthly average
1947 monthly average
1947: November
December
1948: January. _ _
February
March
.
April
May
_
_
T > r
June
J u l y _ _ ._
August
September _ _
October
November
December 2
1
2

-

__
____

_

_

526
1, 118
345
401
871
1, 165
1,432
1,320
1, 157
1,009
1, 166
1, 311
1,461
1, 616
1,715
1,799
1,782
1,705
1,559
1, 391

Total
private

Residential
(nonfarm)

317
251
152
226
688
908
1, 141
1,097
948
837
940
1,024
1, 120
1,235
1,318
1, 354
1,332
1,263
1, 176
1,080

176
110
45
57
265
438
630
610
500
400
475
525
585
635
680
695
685
650
600
550

Other
141
141
107
169
422
469
511
487
448
437
466
499
535
600
638
659
647
613
576
530

Federal,
State, and
local l

208
867
193
174
184
257
291
223
209
172
226
287
341
381
397
445
450
442
383
311

Includes public residential construction.
Preliminary estimate.
NOTE.—Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding.
Sources: Department of Commerce and Department of Labor.

84471—49-




13

NEW HOUSING STARTS *
Starts have been declining since spring and in recent weeks have been running below the 1947 rate.
THOUSANDS OF UNITS

THOUSANDS OF UNITS

100

100

80

80

60

RURAL NONFARM

40

URBAN

M

J

J

20

J J
1947

A

1946

M

J

J

A

S

1948

SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR.

New nonfarm units (conventional
and
prefabricated) l

Period

Total
1946 monthly average
1947 monthly average
1947: June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1948 1 Januarv
February
March
April
_
OU.O.J
Mav

_

_

_

June
Julv 2
August
2
September
October 2 2
November
December 2
1
2

_

_
_ _ _ _ _ _
_ _ _ _ _ _
_
_

_ _ _ _ _ _ _
_ _ _ _

_ _
_ _

_

_

_ _

_-

-

64, 683
71, 125
77, 200
81, 100
86, 300
93, 800
94, 000
79, 700
58, 800
52, 600
49, 600
75, 100
98, 800
99, 400
97, 500
93, 500
86, 300
81, 000
72, 000
65, 000
56, 000

Urban
41, 164
40, 125
42, 200
44, 500
47, 400
50, 300
53, 200
48, 000
36, 300
30, 400
28, 800
42, 000
54, 400
56, 700
54, 400
51, 600

Rural nonfarm
23, 520
31, 000
35, 000
36, 600
38, 900
43, 500
40, 800
31, 700
22, 500
22, 200
20, 800
33, 100
44, 400
42, 700
43, 100
41, 900

New nonfarm family dwelling units. Temporary units are excluded after 1947 when the program ended.
Preliminary estimate.
NOTE.—Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding.
Source: Department of Labor.

14




EXPENDITURES FOR NEW PLANT
AND EQUIPMENT
Nonagricultural business expenditures for plant and equipment are expected to show a seasonal decline in the
first quarter of 1949, but present estimates run above first quarter of 1948. Railroad and utility
investment continues to increase in relative importance.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS

BILLIONS OF DOLLAR^
25

25
ANN UAL TOTALS

15

TRANSPORTATION AND
ELECTRIC AND GAS

1939

1945

1941

* NOT ADJUSTED FOR SEASONAL

VARIATION.

SOURCES: SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE COMMISSION AND DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE.

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

[Millions of dollars, annual rates, not adjusted for seasonal]
Transportation
Total i

Period

Manufacturing

Electric and
gas utilities

Mining
Railroad

1939
1941
1945
1946
1947 3
1948

5,200
8, 190
6,630
12, 040
16, 180
18, 840

1,930
3,400
3,210
5,910
7,460
8,180

380
680
440
560
690
770

280
560
550
570
910
1,310

280
340
320
660
800
690

480
710
630
1,040
1,900
2,610

1, 850
2,490
1,480
3,300
4,430
5,280

12,
15,
16,
19,

640
760
560
760

5,800
7,400
7,480
9, 160

600
640
720
840

640
880
920
1,200

720
920
800
760

1,320
1,800
2,000
2,480

3,600
4, 120
4,640
5,360

_ _ _-

16, 680
19, 280
19, 320
20, 040

7,200
8,560
8,360
8, 640

720
800
800
720

1,080
1,240
1,320
1,600

720
760
680
640

2,000
2,560
2,760
3, 120

4,960
5,360
5,440
5,320

_ _ _ _

17, 560

7, 120

720

1, 480

600

2, 720

4, 880

_

—

_

_

1947: First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
1948: First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter 4
Fourth quarter
1949: First quarter 4

_

Other

Commercial
and miscellaneous 2

_

1
Excludes agriculture.
2
Includes trade, service, finance, and communication.
3
Based
on actual expenditures for first three quarters
4

and estimates for the fourth quarter.
Estimates based on anticipated capital expenditures of business.
NOTE.—These figures do not agree with the totals included in the gross national product estimates of the Department of Commerce, principally because the latter cover agricultural investment and also certain equipment and construction outlays charged to
current expense. Figures for 1939-44 are Federal Reserve Board estimates based on Securities and Exchange Commission and other
data.
Detail will not necessarily add to totals because annual rates are based on quarterly figures rounded to the nearest 10,000,000.
Sources: Securities and Exchange Commission and Department of Commerce (except as noted).



15

NEW CORPORATE SECURITY ISSUES
New
rate

issues in 3rd quarter of 1948 were below those of the previous
as a year ago. Three-fifths of the proceeds were earmarked for

quarter but at the same
plant and equipment.

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
3.0

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
3.0

QUARTERLY AVERAGE

2.0

1.5

J.O

SOURCE:

1945

1943

1939

SECURITIES

AND EXCHANGE

COMMISSION.

COUNCIL OF E C O N O M I C A D V I S E R S

[Millions of dollars]
Proposed uses of net proceeds
Estimated
net proceeds

Period

New money
Total

1939
1943
1945
1946
1947

quarterly average
quarterly average
quarterly average
quarterly average
quarterly average

1947: First quarter.
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
1948: First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter _ _
1

_

_

_

_.
_ _

_

16

Working
capital

Retirement
of debt and
stock l

529
287
1,476
1,689
1,528

81
77
270
820
1,068

43
35
159
529
806

39
42
111
291
261

448
210
1,206
869
460

1,018
1,605
1, 266
2,221

673
932
797
1,867

396
636
649
1, 542

278
296
148
325

344
672
469
354

1,614
1,663
1,266

1, 400
1,353
1,046

845
1,080
765

555
274
280

214
309
221

Includes small amount for other purposes.
NOTE.—Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding.
Source: Securities and Exchange Commission.




Plant and
equipment

INVENTORIES AND SALES
Retail sales through November showed a somewhat less than normal autumn rise.

BILL IONS OF DOLLARS

B.ILLIONS OF DOLLARS

MANUFACTURING

WHOLESALE

,_
30

30

NOT ADJUSTED FOR SEAS DNAL VARIATION

NOT ADJUSTED FOR SEASONAL VARIATION

«**"

INVENTORIES*

"'"1

20

20

yv*^/-

—sj-**S

^~

10

SALES*
1 0

_^_J^~X,

^f^=—^^

INVENTORIES *
0

1

1

1

1 1

1

1

1 1

1 1

BILL IONS

i i i i i 1 i | i i i

I I i l i 1 l i_ i i i

1946

1947

1

0

|

1

1

1

1

1

1 1

1

1

1

1

1

1 !

1946

1948

1

1 1

1

1

1 1

1947

1

1

1

i

1 1

1

1 1

1948

PERCE NT OF 1935-39 AVERAGE

OF DOLLARS

DEPARTMENT STORES

RETAIL
30

400
SEASONALLY ADJUSTED

SEASONALLY ADJUSTED

20

SALES

300

**

,—.

/"X^"*

"V,

INVENTORIES!^
1 0

,

^— -j

•

200

s

S^~

INVENTORIES**

Si VLES*
0

i i i i i 1 i i i i i
*

l i 1 i l 1 i i l i l

II l i l 1 l l i l l

1946

1947

1

i i l i i 1 l i i i i

00

1948

1946

SALES ARE TOTAL FOR MONTH AND INVENTORIES ARE BOOK- VALUE, END OF MONTH.

i i i i i

l i i i i

1948

BOOK VALUE OF INVENTORIES, END OF MONTH.

SOURCES: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE AND BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM.

Manufacturing l
Period

Inventories

3

Sales «

i i i i i 1 i i i i i

1947

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

Wholesale l
Inventories

8

Retail 2

Sales

4

Inventories *

Department stores
Sales *

1
2

„,

--

18, 773
19, 468
21, 500
23, 432
27, 051
27, 055
27, 397
27, 627
28, 020
28, 501
28, 768
29, 064
29, 161
29, 437
29, 727
30, 236
30, 429
30, 710
30, 784
31, 000
3
4

10, 712
11, 132
13, 055
14, 634
15, 257
16, 597
18, 082
16, 554
17, 523
16, 552
16, 225
18, 117
17, 229
16, 777
17, 871
16, 403
18, 169
18, 781
18, 894
18, 200

4,309
4, 337
5, 172
5,823
7,068
7,233
7,342
7,467
7,545
7,850
7,885
7,869

7>777

7,801
7,953
7, 930
8, 100
8,243
8,394
8, 536

5, 338
5,575
6,321
7, 118
7,072
7,763
8,716
8,013
8,262
7,692
7, 121
7,726
7,652
7, 389
7,766
7,796
8, 161
8,286
8,376
8,248

Sales

1935-39=100, seasonally
adjusted 5

Millions of dollars
946: March
June
September
December^ „_ - . ^ ™ , _ , r ^ ^ ^ .
947: August
September
October
November_ _December
948" January
February _
March.
April
.
May..June
July
August
6
September
- _ __
_
October 6 6
November
__

Inventories

8,023
8,917
9, 995
11, 049
11,944
12, 073
12, 435
12, 621
12, 953
13, 384
13, 751
14, 040
13, 907
13, 951
14, 065
14, 080
14, 145
14, 531
14,514
14, 652

7,796
8, 164
8,876
9,258
9,786
10, 264
10, 292
10, 426
10, 620
10, 464
10, 463
10, 658
10, 891
10, 620
10, 862
10, 857
10, 893
10, 968
10. 906
10, 775

177
210
226
274
228
232
252
273
285
289
306
313
309
297
284
273
268
275
282
304

255
275
272
276
284
294
279
302
303
286
286
285
306
310
312
316
311
312
306
287

6
Indexes computed from data on retail value of sales for
month
and retail book value of inventories, end of month.
6
Preliminary estimate.
Sources: Department of Commerce and Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System,

Not adjusted for seasonal variation.
Adjusted for seasonal variation.




Book value, end of month.
Total for month.

17

EXPORTS AND IMPORTS
Exports fell 20 percent in November to the lowest level in two years as the maritime strike hit the East
Coast. The value of imports fell 10 percent.
MILLIONS OF .DOLLARS
I,60C

MILLIONS OF DOLLARS
1,600

MONTHLY AVERAGES

—

1,400 —

1,200

1,200

1,000

— 1,000

800

800

400

400

w.

200

1943

1936-38
X
**

—

J

1945

F

M

A

M

F

M A

M

RECORDED MERCHANDISE EXPORTS, INCLUDING REEXPORTS,
RECORDED GENERAL MERC HA NOISE IMPORTS

J

J

A

1948

1946
ND CIVILIAN SUPPLIES FOR OCCUPIED AREAS

SOURCES: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE, DEPARTMENT OF THE ARMY, AND DEPARTMENT OF THE NAVY

COUNCIL OF

[Millions of dollars]
Exports l

Period
1936—38 monthly average-1943 monthly average
1945 monthly average
1946 monthly average
1947 monthly average
1947: August
September
October
November
December
1948* January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November! .
1
J

__-

_

_

-_

-

_--

_ -

- --

___

-

-

-

_
_ _ _

_ _ _ _ _

_

Imports 2

Excess of
exports

247
1, 080
877
849
1,278

207
282
346
410
478

40
798
531
439
801

1,265
1, 185
1,304
1, 189
1, 172

400
473
492
455
603

865
712
812
734
569

1,092
1,086
1, 138
1, 120
1, 102
1,014
1, 020
986
926
1,020
819

545
582
666
528
549
616
558
598
558
597
550

546
504
473
592
553
398
461
387
368
423
269

Recorded merchandise exports, including reexports, and civilian supplies for occupied areas.
Recorded general merchandise imports.
Sources: Department of Commerce, Department of the Army, and Department of the Navy,

18

1,400




20O

PURCHASING POWER
NATIONAL INCOME
A steady rise throughout 1948 brought total national income for the year to 224 billion dollars, about
10 percent higher than for 1947.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
250

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
250

ANNUAL TOTALS

200

200

I 50

100

COMPENSATION OF

50

1944

1939

1945

SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC A D V I S E R S

[Billions of dollars]
Total
national
income

Period

1939
1944
1945
1946
1947 1
1948

.-_
-__

_

-__
__

72.5
182.4
181.7
179.3
202.5
224.0

Compensation of
employees

Corporate profProprietors1
its and invenand rental Net interest tory
valuation
income
adjustment

47.8
121. 1
122.9
117.3
127.5
137.8

14.7
34.1
36.0
41.8
46.0
50. 7

4.2
3. 1
3.0
3.4
4.3
4. 7

5.8
24.0
19.8
16.8
24.7
30. 7

Annual rates, seasonally adjusted
1947: First'quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter

197.3
199.3
200.6
212. 8

125.0
125.3
127.6
132.2

46.4
44.6
44.4
48.6

4. 1
4.2
4.4
4.5

,21.8
(25.2
24.3
27. 5

1948: First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter 1
Fourth quarter

215. 1
221.7
227.4
2
()

133.7
134.2
140.6
142.8

50.6
51.8
50.2
50. 3

4.6
4.7
4.8
4. 9

26.2
30.9
31.6

(2)

1
2

Preliminary estimate.
Not available.
NOTE.—Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding.
Source: Department of Commerce (except fourth quarter, 1948).



19

CORPORATE PROFITS
Corporate

profits so far this year are running above the 1947 levels.

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
40

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
40

ANNUAL TOTALS

>v DIVIDEND PAYMENTS XXy$
>
<
'

<
^^\xs>:^^<
K
v
;>>^s^,';s v\\>w<;:

PROFITS

1939

1929

SOURCE:

1943

DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE.

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

[Billions of dollars]
Corporate
profits
before taxes

Period

1929
1939
1943
1946
1947 1
1948 -

_

_ _ _

_.- . _

9.8
6. 5
24. 5
21.8
29.8
34. 0

Corporate
tax
liability
1.4
1.5
14.2
9.0
11.7
13. 2

Corporate profits after taxes
Total
8.4
5.0
10.4
12. 8
18. 1
20. 8

Dividend
payments
5.8
3.8
4.5
5. 6
6.9
7. 6

Undistributed
profits
2.6
1.2
5.9
7.2
11.2
13.2

Annual rates, seasonally adjusted
1947: First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter.. _. _

28.9
28.8
29. 1
32.4

11.4
11.3
11.4
12.7

17.5
17.5
17.7
19.7

6.4
6.7
6.9
7.1

11. 1
10.8
10.8
12.6

1948: First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter

31.4
33.4
35. 5

12. 2
13.0
13. 8

19.2
20.4
21. 7

7.3
7.3
7. 7

11.9
13. 1
14.0

1

Preliminary estimate.
NOTE.—No allowance has been made for inventory valuation adjustment, See p. 19 for profits before
taxes and inventory valuation adjustment.
Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding.
Source: Department of Commerce.



PERSONAL INCOME
Personal incomes continued to rise in November.
for about one-half of the total rise.

An increase in proprietors' income accounted

BILLIONS OF D O L L A R S
250

BILLIONS OF D O L L A R S
250

A

M

J

J

A

S

1948

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC A D V I S E R S

SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE.

[Billions of dollars]
Total
personal
income

Period

1939- _ .1944
1945 _ _ _ _
1946
1947 1
1948 -.

72.6
164.5
170.3
178. 1
195.2
211. 5

_ _

Salaries, wages, Proprietors'
and other
and rental
income
labor income

Dividends
and interest

14.7
34. 1
36.0
41.8
46. 0
50. 7

9. 2
10.6
11. 4
13.5
15. 6
17. 1

45.7
116. 1
116.8
111. 4
121. 9
132. 8

Social security
and GI payments
3.0
3.6
6. 2
11.4
11.7
10. 9

Annual rates, seasonally adjusted
1947: October
November
December
1948: January
February
March
April
May__
June
July
August
September
October 1
November

_

__ _

_ __

200.0
201.4
207.7

124. 6
127.4
129. 3

47. 5
47. 1
51. 3

15.9
16. 1
16.2

12.0
10.8
10.9

209. 4
206.8
205.6
207.4
207.2
212.3
212.9
214.6
214. 9
215. 6
216. 7

129. 4
128.9
127. 6
127.0
128.8
131.7
133. 9
136.4
136.8
137. 1
137. 3

52.4
50. 0
49.3
51.9
50.7
52.8
51. 0
50. 0
50. 1
50. 5
51. 1

16.5
16.6
16. 6
16.7
16.8
16.8
17.0
17.3
17. 5
17.7
18.0

11. 1
11.3
12. 1
11.8
10.9
11.0
11.0
10. 9
10. 5
10. 3
10. 3

1

Preliminary estimate.
NOTE.—Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding.
Source: Department of Commerce.



21

CONSUMER INCOME, SPENDING, AND SAVING
At the end of the year consumers' saving was apparently running at an annual rate of about 15 billion
dollars — considerably more than the estimates for 1946 and 1947.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS

250

ANNUAL RATES, SEASONALLY ADJUSTED

200

DISPOSABLE
PERSONAL INCOME

1939

SOURCE:

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC A D V I S E R S

DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE

[Billions of dollars]
t

Disposable
personal
income *

Period
1939
1940
1941 .
1942
1943
1944
1945
1946
1947 2
1948

_>_

70. 2
75. 7
92. 0
116.2
131. 6
145.6
149.4
159.2
173.6
190.4

.
.
.

Less: Personal
consumption
expenditures

Equals: Personal saving

67.5
72. 1
82. 3
90.8
101. 6
111.4
122.8
147.4
164. 8
176. 8

2. 7
3. 7
9.8
25.4
30.0
34.2
26. 6
11.8
8.8
13. 6

Annual rates, seasonally adjusted
1947: First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
1948: First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter 2
Fourth quarter
1
2

22

.

_ _
_ __

. _

__

169.7
168.2
175.0
180.9

158. 1
164.2
165.6
171.1

11.6
4. 1
9.4
9.7

184. 1
188. 2
193.7
195.4

172. 1
176. 5
178.5
180. 0

12. 0
11.7
15.2
15.4

Income less taxes.
Preliminary estimate.
NOTE.—Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding.
Source: Department of Commerce (except fourth quarter 1948).




PER CAPITA

INCOME

The last quarter of 1948 registered a moderate gain in the real purchasing power of consumers,
reflecting mainly a reversal of the upward trend in consumers' prices.
DOLLARS

DOLLARS

1,600

I,6OO
SEASONALLY

ADJUSTED

ANNUAL

RATES

1947 DOLLARS**

CURRENT DOLLARS

400

1939
PERSONAL

1941

1940
INCOME LESS

1942

1943

"^ CURRENT DOLLARS DIVIDED BY THE CONSUMERS' PRICE INDEX
SOURCES:

1944

1945

TAXES.

DEPARTMENT OF

COMMERCE

2 3
1946

2

3
1947

LABOR.

_._
_ _
_

Per capita disposable personal
income *
Current
1947 dollars *
dollars
$536
$859
574
913
691
1,047
863
1, 169
964
1,217
1 054
1,295
1 070
1,280
1 127
1,258
1 205
1,205
1 299
1,208
Annual rates, seasonally
adjusted

1947: First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
1948: First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter _4
Fourth] quarter

..

2
3
1948

ON THE BASE ")947 =

AND DEPARTMENT OF

Period

1939
1940
1941
1942
1943
1944
1945
1946
1947
1948 4 _

I

__ __

$1, 186
1, 170
1,212
1,246
1,263
1,286
1,318
1, 326

$1, 218
1, 193
1,201
1,203
1,201
1,202
1,206
1,222

Consumers'
price index 3
1947=100

62.4
62. 9
66. 0
173.8
79. 2
81.4
83. 6
89.6
100.0
107. 5
Not adjusted
for seasonal
variation
97.4
98. 1
100.9
103. 6
105.2
107.0
109.3
108. 5

1
2
3

Income less taxes.
Current dollars divided by the consumers' price index on the base 1947=100.
The consumers' price index has been roughly adjusted to take account of the understatement from
December 1941-February 1947. This adjustment is in line with the report of the Mitchell Committee. The
unadjusted
index will be found on page 2.
4
Preliminary estimate.
Sources: Department of Commerce and Department of Labor (except fourth quarter).



23

AVERAGE HOURLY EARNINGS
/!\n upward movement in real hourly earnings in October was due chiefly to the decline in the
c;ost of living.
DOLLA RS

PER HOUR

D O L L A R S PER HOUR

RETAIL TRADE

MANUFACTURING
1.50

1.50

1947 DOLLARS*

-.— %%

——-

1947 DOLLARS*
1.00

1.00

.

(

„

—

—

'

CUR RENT DOLLARS
GUF RENT DOLLARS
.50

0

.50

i i i i i I i i i f i

i i t i i 1 i i i i i
1946

i ( I i i 1 i i i i i

1947

0

i i i i i 1 i i I i i

1948

I

!

I 1 ! 1

1

1

1 , , , , ,

1 1

1947

1948

PRIVATE BUILDING CONSTRUCTION

BITUMINOUS COAL MINING
2.00

2.00

1947

1.50

I

1946

DOLLARS*

^ ^»*^j— —

f*ZZZ+Z

—^

1947

DOLLARS*
/

.
^^* —1

-^-~

JU-***"—-<^-—

.....A-/.— «.— J

1.50

^^//^T~i
^CUF

CUF RENT DOLLARS

RENT DOLLARS

1.00

1.00

.50

.50

i i , i i 1 . . , i i

0

1946

1947

0

1 , , , , ,

i i i i i 1 i i i i i
1946

1948

i i i i i 1i i i i i

1947

1948

* CURRENT DOLLARS DIVIDED BY CONSUMERS' PRICE INDEX ON THE BASE 1947 = 100.
SOURCE:

DEPARTMENT

OF

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

LABOR.

[Selected industries]
Manufacturing
Period

1939 monthly average
1941 monthly average
1944 monthly average
1945 monthly average
1946 monthly average
1947 monthly average
1947: September
»
October
November
_
December
1948: January
February
March
April _
May._
June
.July
August
_
September
4
October 4
November4 .
December
_

Current
dollars
>_

_

_ _

__
.

__

- -

1
2

$0. 633
.729
1.019
1.023
1.084
1. 221
1. 249
1.258
1. 268
1. 278
1.285
1.287
1.289
1. 292
1. 301
1. 316
1.332
1.349
1.362
1.365
1. 371
1.378

1947
dollars 2
$1. 014
1. 105
1. 252
1. 224
1.210
1.221
1.215
1.224
1.225
1. 219
1.213
1.225
1.231
1.217
1. 216
1.222
1.222
1. 232
1. 244
1. 253
1. 269
1. 281

Retail trade
Current
dollars
$0. 536
.568
.724
.773
.878
.991
1.012
1.013
1.025
1. 016
1.044
1.050
1. 044
1.055
1. 064
1.070
1.077
1.080
1. 086
1.080
1.084

1947
dollars 2
$0 859
861
889
925
980
991
984
985
990
969
986
999
997
993
994
994
988
986
992
992
1 004

Bituminous coal mining
Current
dollars

24

$1. 420
1.505
1. 457
1. 483
1.564
1.644
1.769
1.749
1.788
1.742
1.744
1.737
1.759
3
1.715
1. 721
1.718
1.776
1.796
1. 799
1. 799
1. 806

$0. 886
.993
1. 186
1. 240
1.401
1. 644
1.819
1.798
1. 851
1.826
1.847
1.826
1. 842
3 1. 821
1. 841
1. 850
1.936
1.967
1.970
1. 959
1. 951

Covers only employees at the site of privately financed building projects.
Current dollars divided by consumers' price index on the base 1947= 100. See note 3 to table on page 23.
Source: Department of Labor.




1947
dollars 2

3
1

Private building
construction l
Current
dollars
$0. 932
1.010
1. 319
1.379
1.478
1.676
1.723
1.743
1.765
1.774
1.781
1. 806
1. 805
1.818
1. 835
1.858
1. 890
1. 901
1.919
1. 919
1.937

1947
dollars 2
$1. 494
1. 530
1. 620
1. 650
1.650
1. 676
1. 676
1. 696
1.705
1. 693
1. 682
1.718
1. 724
1.712
1. 715
1. 725
1. 734
1.736
1. 753
1. 762
1. 794

Based on pay period during coal stoppage.

4 Prp.lnninfl.rv
Preliminary pstima.t.p
estimate.

AVERAGE WEEKLY EARNINGS
Declines in average weekly earnings in several nonmanufacturing industries in October were primarily
due to the somewhat shorter average hours of work. Preliminary data for November show average
weekly earnings in manufacturing unchanged.
DOLt_ A R S

PER WEEK

DOLLARS

PER WEEK

RETAIL TRADE

MANUFACTURING
60

60

-^
_

40

CURRENT DOLLARSV
_X_^trOp—

-s

—

—— ~

CURRENT DOLLARS
\

40

1947 DOLLARS* *

_^

7

^^

X X

1947 DOLLARS
20

^

20

1

0

1 1 1 1 1 1 1 !

1946

l i i i i 11i l l 1

1 1

1947

0

( l t i i 1l i i i i
1946

1948

i i i i i 1i i i i i

1 1 1 1 1 I 1 1 1 I I

1947

1948

PRIVATE BUILDING CONSTRUCTION

BITUMINOUS COAL MINING
1 00

100

80

-"
s*

60

v-^c
-*^i'^^>¥'
i
__/ —

«* *

CUR RENT

DOLLARS

80

CURRENT DOLLARS

7

\

**" * -**«—*/

__^

•^^^

/

60

1947 DOLLARS * *

1947 DOLLARS* *
40

40

20

20

i I i I i 1 i 1l 1 l

0

1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1

! 1 1 1 1 I 1 1 1 1 1

1946

1947

0

1 1 M 1 1 1i i j 1
1946

1948

1 I 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1

1 1 1 1 I 1 1 1 1 1 1

1947

1948

->
SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR.

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

[Selected industries]
Manufacturing
Period

1939 monthly average
1941 monthly average..
1944 monthly average
1945 monthly average..
1946 monthly average..
1947 monthly average..
1947: September
October
November
December. »
1948: January
February .
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October 4 __4 _
November 4
December
1
3

Current
dollars
$23. 86
29. 58
46.08
44.39
43.74
49. 25
50.47
51.05
51.29
52. 69
52.07
51.75
52.07
51. 79
51.86
52. 85
52.95
54. 05
54. 19
54. 54
54. 47
55. 01

1947 dollars *
$38. 24
44. 82
56. 61
53. 10
48. 82
49.25
49. 10
49.66
49. 56
50.28
49. 17
49. 24
49. 73
48. 77
48.47
49. 07
48. 58
49. 36
49. 49
50.08
50.43
51. 12

Retail trade
Current
dollars
$21. 17
21.94
26.58
28. 31
32.55
36. 67
37.06
36.74
37. 14
37.51
37. 62
38.33
38.89
39. 27
39. 84
40. 52
41. 19
41. 19
40. 48
40. 32
39. 67

1947 dollars *
$33. 93
33.24
32. 65
33. 86
36. 33
36. 67
36.05
35.74
35. 88
35. 79
35. 52
36. 47
37. 14
36. 98
37. 23
37. 62
37. 79
37. 62
36. 97
37. 02
36. 73

Covers only employees at the site of privately financed building projects.
Current dollars divided by consumers' price index on the base 1947 = 100.
See note 3 to table on page 23.
Source: Department of Labor.




Bituminous coal mining
Current
dollars
$23. 88
30. 86
51.27
52.25
58.03
66.86
71. 19
71.91
71.77
75.22
75.78
70.54
74.84
3
49. 53
74. 08
73. 87
67. 62
78. 10
75. 51
76. 40
73. 52
1
4

1947 dollars *
$38. 27
46. 76
62. 99
62. 50
64. 77
66.86
69.25
69.95
69. 34
71.77
71. 56
67. 12
71. 48
3
46. 64
69. 23
68. 59
62. 04
71. 32
68. 96
70. 16
68.07

Private building construction *
Current
dollars
$30. 39
35. 14
52. 18
53.73
56.24
63. 30
65.36
66.36
64.55
67.31
66. 28
66.31
66.89
67. 31
68. 13
70.49
71.38
71.89
72. 06
71. 69
71. 02

1947 dollars •
$48. 70
53. 24
64. 10
64. 27
62. 77
63 30
63. 58
64. 55
62. 37
64. 23
62. 59
63.09
63. 89
63. 38
63. 67
65. 45
65. 49
65. 65
65. 81
65. 83
65. 76

Based on pay period during coal stoppage.
Preliminary estimate.

25

FARM INCOME
Cash farm income in November, down seasonally from October, was about equal to that in November 1947.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
4

1939
*

**

40

CASH RECEIPTS

41

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
4

42

43

M A M J

44

FROM MARKETING AND GOVERNMENT

J

A S

1 J

1947

A S 0

N D

PAYMENTS.

FARM INCOME IN CURRENT DOLLARS DIVIDED BY THE INDEX OF PRICES PAID, INTEREST, AND TAXES ON THE BASE 1939* too.

SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE.

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

Period

1939 monthly average
1940 monthly average *-_
1941 monthly average
1942 monthly average
1943 monthly average
1944 monthly average
1945 monthly average - .
] 946 monthly average
1947 monthly average _„
1947: October
.November.
December
.
*
1948* January
February
March
»
_-.
April
May
.. « . «
June
July
August—
September
October 4
November

»

- _

_
.

~
«.

..

_«

.

_ _ . .

__

Farm income
(millions of
current
dollars) *

Prices paid by
farmers (incl.
interest and
taxes) 1939=
100 a

723
761
981
1, 340
1 678
1, 753
1, 857
2 136
2, 542
3 818
3, 276
2 843
2 571
1, 862
1 932
2, 075
2 119
2, 437
2, 693
2, 722
3, 132
3, 714
3.314

100. 0
100 8
106 5
121. 0
130 6
136. 3
138. 7
155 6
186. 3
192. 7
194. 4
197. 6
202. 4
200. 0
199. 2
200. 8
201. 6
202,4
202. 4
202. 4
201. 6
200. 8
199.2

Farm income
(millions of
1939 dollars) 3

1
Includes cash farm income from marketings and Government payments.
*1 Converted from the reported base, 1910-14=100, to the base 1939=100.
Farm income in current dollars divided by prices paid by farmers, interest, and taxes, 1939* 100.
4
Preliminary.
Source: Department of^ Agriculture.

26

J

1948




723
755
921
1, 107
1 285
1,286
1, 339
1 373
1, 364
1 981
1, 685
1 439
1 270
931
970
1,033
1, 051
1,204
1, 331
1,345
1, 554
1, 850
1.664

PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES
Expenditures for both durable and nondurable goods increased less in 1948 than in 1947.
for services, however, increased more than in the preceding year.

Expenditures

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS

200

200

ANNUAL RATES, SEASONALLY ADJUSTED

1939

SOURCE:

DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE (except fourth quarter of 1948).

[Billions of dollars]
Personal consumption expenditures
Period
Nondurable
goods

Total

1939
1944
1945 .
1946
1947
1948 i

67. 5
111.4
122.8
147.4
164. 8
176. 8

35.3
67.5
75.4
87. 5
96.5
102. 7

Durable
goods
6. 7
6.9
8.3
16.2
21.0
22. 7

Services

25.5
37.0
39.2
43.6
47.3
51.3

Annual rates, seasonally adjusted

1947: First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
1948: First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter .
Fourth quarter 1

_ „.
_
_ __

__

158. 1
164.2
165. 6
171. 1

92.5
96.3
96.8
100.2

19. 6
21. 1
21. 1
22. 1

46.0
46.7
47.7
48.8

172. 1
176. 5
178.5
180. 0

101. 2
103.2
102.9
103. 5

21.2
22. 6
23.6
23. 5

49.7
50.6
51.9
53.0

1

Preliminary estimate.
NOTE.—Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding.
Source: Department of Commerce (except fourth quarter).




27

CONSUMER CREDIT
Total consumer credit showed an expected seasonal increase in November, but the rise was much
less than that of a year ago.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
16

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
16

14

- 14

12

12

10 -

1
1929

1939

1941

M A M J

1943

END OF YEAR

A M J

J A

1946

J A

1947

END OF MONTH
* SINGLE PAYMENT LOANS AND SERVICE CREDIT

[Billions of dollars]
Total
consumer
credit
outstanding

End of period

1929
1939
1941
1943
1945
1946
.
_
1947
1947: October
November
December
1948: January
February
March
April _

__
_

May

June
July
August
September
October
_
November 3 ,
1

_ _ _

_

7. 6
8. 0
9. 9
5. 3
6. 6
10. 1
13. 4
12. 1
12. 7
13 4
13. 1
13. 1
13. 5
13. 8
14. 0
14. 3
14. 4
14. 5
14. 8
15.0
15.3

Instalment
credit 1
3. 2
4. 4
5. 9
L9
2. 3
3.9

6. 2
5. 5
5. 8
6. 2
6. 2
6. 3
6. 6
6. 8
7. 0
7. 2
7. 4
7. 6
7. 8
7. 8
7.9

Charge
accounts
1. 7
1. 5
1. 8
1. 5
2. 0
3. 1
3. 6
3. 0
3. 3
3. 6
3.2

3. 1
3. 3
3. 2
3. 2
3. 4
3. 2
3. 1
3.2

3. 5
3. 6

Other
consumer
credit 2
2. 7
2. 0
2. 2
1. 9
2. 3
3. 1
3. 6
3. 6
3. 6
3. 6
3. 7
3. 7
3. 7
3.7

3. 7
3. 8
3. 8
3. 8
3. 8
3. 8
3.8

Includes automobile and other sale credit and repair and modernization loans insured by Federal Housing Administration.
2
Includes single-payment loans of commercial banks and pawnbrokers and service credit.
3
Preliminary estimate.
NOTE.—Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding.
Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.

28




MONEY, BANKING, AND FEDERAL FINANCE
BANK LOANS AND INVESTMENTS
After a slight decline in October, bank loans moved up sharply in November.

BILLIONS OF D O L L A R S

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS

125

125
TOTAL (All commercial hanks)

100

100

::•:•: INVESTMENT

IN

:j:j:|:::|::i:::

U. S .GOVERNMENT SECURITIES;:^':'

.jjjj

75

50

75

~^^~

50

25

25

1929

1939

1945

J

F

M

A

M

J

J

A

S

O

N

D

J

F

M

A

M

J

J

A

S

O

N

*

D

J

F

M

A

M

J

J

A

S

O

N

O

1948

END OF YEAR

END OF MONTH
PRELIMINARY ESTIMATE

[Billions of dollars]
Investments

Total
investments

Total

U. S.
Government
securities

Other
securities
8.7

49. 5
40. 7
124. 0
114. 0
116. 4

36. 0
17.2
26. 1
31. 1
38. 1

13. 5
23.4
97. 9
82.9
78.3

4. 8
• 16.3
90. 6
74.8
69. 3

116. 3
116. 6
116. 3

36. 8
37.6
38. 1

79.5
79. 0
78.2

70.5
70. 1
69.2

9.0
8.9
9.0

38.2
1948: January
_ _ _ _ _
116. 6
38. 7
February..
115. 5
38. 9
March
113. 6
38. 8
114. 3
ApriL
39.4
114 5
May „
39.9
113. 9
June
40. 1
114. 8
July
40. 6
August
115. 1
41.7
113. 6
September
41. 6
October 1
114. 1
114.2
42. 3
November
_._
1
Preliminary estimate.
NOTE.—Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding.
Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.

78.4
76.9
74.7
75.5
75. 1
74.0
74.6
74.5
71.9
72. 5
71.9

69.4
67.9
65.5
66.3
65.9
64.8
65.3
65. 1
62. 5
63.3
62.8

9.0
9.0
9.3
9.2
9.2
9.2
9.3
9.4
9.4
9.2

]929
19391945
1946_
1947
1947: October.
November
December




- __ _ .
__

7. 1

7.3

8. 1
9.0

9. 1

29

MONEY SUPPLY
A rise in currency holdings

slightly increased the total money supply in November.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
150

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
150

100

75

25

25

1929

1939

1941

1943

J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N * D

1946

END OF YEAR

1948

1947

1946

PRELIMINARY ESTIMATE

END OF MONTH

[Billions of dollars]
Total money
supply

End of period
1929_.
1939
1941
1943 .
1945 .
1946..
1947
1947: October - _
November „ _ _ _
December
1948: January
February
March™. _. _ _
April. _
_
May
June
July
August
September ...
October 3 _ _ _
November ...

_

._

. _ _

_„

„ _
_ _ _

26. 5
37. 0
50. 5
90. 1
126. 9
113. 1
115. 1
113. 4
114. 3
115. 1
113. 7
112. 1
109. 5
110. 6
110. 6
110. 5
111. 3
111. 8
112.4
113. 1
113. 2

Currency
outside
banks
3.6

6. 4
9. 6
18. 8
26. 5
26. 7
26. 5
26. 2
26. 5
26. 5
25. 8
25, 7
25. 6
25.4
25.4
25. 6
25. 5
25. 6
25.7
25. 7
25. 9

Adjusted
demand
deposits *
22. 8
29 8
39. 0
60. 8
75. 9
83.3
87. 1
85.4
85. 9
87. 1
86.6
84.6
81.5
82.7
82.8
82. 7
83. 4
83.8
83. 9
85.0
85.0

U.S.
Government
deposits 3
0. 2

8

19
10. 4
24. 6
3. 1
1. 5
1.8

1. 9

1.5

1. 3
1. 8

2.4
2.5
2.4

2. 2
2 4
2. 4
2 8
2. 3
2. 2

1
Includes demand deposits, other than interbank and U. S. Government, less cash items in process of collection.
a
Beginning December 1938, includes TJ. S. Treasurer's time deposits, open account.
1
Preliminary estimate.
NOTE.—Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding.
Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.

30




FEDERAL CASH RECEIPTS FROM AND
PAYMENTS TO THE PUBLIC
Cash payments during the fourth quarter exceeded receipts by about $500 million.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS

B I L L I O N S OF DOLLARS

20

20
QUARTERLY TOTALS, NOT ADJUSTED FOR SEASONAL

15

15

I

2

* PRELIMINARY ESTIMATE.
SEE NOTE ON TABLE BELOW.

2

3

3

2

3

4*

1948

1947

1946

SOURCE: TREASURY. DEPARTMENT

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

[Millions of dollars]
Calendar year by quarters

1946: First quarter
Second quarter.
Third quarter. Fourth quarter
1947: First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
1948: First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter 1 l
Fourth quarter

-

. ..

_. ..
- -

-

_

_ _

Federal cash
receipts from
the public

Federal cash
payments to
the public

14, 153
11, 089
10, 375
9,868

13, 648
13, 590
9, 104
8,907

-f-505
— 2, 501
+ 1,271
+ 961

14, 962
11, 429
10, 494
10, 022

9,772
12, 197
10, 527
8,677

+ 5, 190
— 768
33
+ 1,345

15, 758
11,408
10, 344
9,700

9,346
10, 176
9,045
10, 250

+ 6,412
+ 1, 232
+ 1,299
— 550

Excess of receipts (+) or
payments ( — )

1

Preliminary estimate.
NOTE.—Payments to the public include refunds of receipts. These refunds will be reported as a deduction
from receipts (consistent with the January 1949 Economic Report and the 1950 Budget) as soon as the historical data can be converted to a comparable basis.
Source: Treasury Department.




For sale by the Superintendent of Documents, TJ. S. Government Printing Office, Washington 25, D. C.
Price 15 cents

31