Personal Consumption Expenditures

Name: Personal Consumption Expenditures
Creator: FRASER
Keywords: Economic Data, Economic indicators, Economic conditions, United States

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The following is plain-text output generated by Optical Character Recognition. 80th Congress 2d Session Joint Committee Print Economic Indicators JULY 1948 Prepared for the Joint Committee on the Economic Report by the Council of Economic Advisers and printed for the use of the Joint Committee on the Economic Report UNITED STATES GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE WASHINGTON JOINT COMMITTEE ON THE ECONOMIC REPORT Created pursuant to Sec 5 a of Public Law 304 79th Cong ROBERT A TAFT Ohio Chairman JESSE P WOLCOTT Michigan Vice Chairman JOSEPH H BALL Minnesota RALPH E FLANDERS Vermont ARTHUR V WATKINS Utah JOSEPH C O MAHONEY Wyoming FRANCIS J MYERS Pennsylvania JOHN SPARKMAN Alabama GEORGE H BENDER Ohio CHRISTIAN A HERTER Massachusetts ROBERT F RICH Pennsylvania EDWARD J HART New Jersey WRIGHT PATMAN Texas WALTER B HUBER Ohio CHARLES O HARDY Staff Director FRED E BBRQUIST Assistant Staff Director JOHN W LEHMAN Clerk WILLIAM H MOORE Economist To the Members of Congress From the time the Joint Committee on the Economic Report was established its members realized that one of its basic needs was a concise and meaningful picture of current economic trends and developments Fortunately the Joint Committee finds that Economic Indicators a set of basic charts and tables compiled monthly by the Council of Economic Advisers admirably fills this need While this material was prepared primarily for the use of the President the Council and other officials in the executive offices the Council has made it available to the Joint Committee Other Members of Congress have also expressed an interest in being able to obtain a quick picture of current economic facts without having to wade through voluminous and specialized Government documents In addition businessmen farm leaders labor organizations and representatives of the press and radio have indicated their desire for this information Since nothing con a tained in these charts and tables is of a confidential nature they have urged that the material be made available to the general public Accordingly the Joint Committee has for the past two months provided the Congress and the public with a limited number of copies of Economic Indicators The response to these two issues has indicated such widespread interest that the Committee has arranged to release Economic Indicators each month as a committee print until action can be taken on authorizing the publication on a more permanent basis Comments or suggestions with respect to possible improvements in this presentation will always be welcome Chairman Joint Committee on the Economic Report Letter of Transmitted Hon ROBERT A TAFT Chairman Joint Committee on the Economic Report United States Congress Washington D C DEAR SENATOR The Council of Economic Advisers is happy to cooperate with the Joint Committee on the Economic Report in your plans to make Economic Indicators available to the Congress as a whole and to the general public In carrying out its mandate under the Employment Act of 1946 the Council has found it desirable to bring together in concise and graphic form the most important facts showing current trends in the Nation s economy Thus the Executive Office is in a better position to point up the key problems of national economic policy and to promote the improvement and coordination of the Federal Government s widespread statistical services We have realized of course that this material has a potential usefulness not only to the President the Council and the executive departments but also to the Congress Furthermore its usefulness to the general public has been impressed upon us particularly by the representatives of business labor agriculture and consumer organizations with whom we regularly consult We believe the Joint Committee will perform a service of real value by giving wide circulation to this material Sincerely yours Chairman L H vt v Vice Chairman w A 111 Contents Section A THE NATION S E C O N O M I C BUDGET The Nation s Economic Budget Section B PRICES Consumers Prices Wholesale Prices Prices Received and Paid by Farmers Stock Prices 1 Section C EMPLOYMENT Labor Force Nonagricultural Employment Average Weekly Hours Work Stoppages Section D PRODUCTION AND BUSINESS ACTIVITY Industrial Production Production of Selected Durable Manufactures Production of Selected Nondurable Manufactures New Construction New Housing Starts Expenditures for New Plant and Equipment New Corporate Security Issues IV Section D PRODUCTION AND BUSINESS ACTIVITY Continued Inventories and Sales 17 Exports and Imports 18 Section E PURCHASING POWER National Income Corporate Profits Personal Income Consumer Income Spending and Saving Per Capita Income Average Hourly Earnings Average Weekly Earnings Farm Income Average Family Income Personal Consumption Expenditures Consumer Credit Section F MONEY BANKING AND FEDERAL FINANCE Bank Loans and Investments 30 Money Supply 31 Federal Cash Receipts From and Payments to the Public 32 Section A THE NATION S ECONOMIC BUDGET THE NATION S ECONOMIC BUDGET Rising trend of total income and expenditure continued in 1st half of 1948 Business outlays and government surplus showed a marked increase and net foreign investment a decided drop BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BUSINESS THE NATION S ECONOMIC BUDGET TOTAL Gross National Product 50 EXCESS OF EXPENDITURES EXPENDITURES m 25 RECEIPTS st Half INTERNATIONAL NET FOREIGN INVESTMENT ST Half I II st Half GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT AS LESS THAN THE SUM OF THE ACCOUNTS OF NATION S ECONOMIC BUDGET BECAUSE OF CERTAIN ADJUSTMENTS FOR DETAIL SEE APPENDIX A OF THE PRESIDENT S ECONOMIC REPORTS SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES SOURCES DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE AND BUREAU OF THE BUDGET COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS Billions of dollars Cal 3ndar ye ar 1946 Account Consumers Disposable income Calendar year 1948 firs t half annual rates sea sonally tid justed Cal mdar yeiar 1947 Excess of Excess of Re Expend receipts Re Expend receipts ceipts itures or expendi ceipts itures or expenditures tures Saving Business 13 3 Undistributed profits and reserves 24 6 Gross private domestic investment Excess of receipts or investment International 4 8 Net foreign investment Excess of receipts or investment Government Federal State and local Cash receipts from the public 55 2 Cash payments to the public Excessx of receipts or payments Adjustments 2 1 0 Statistical discrepancy Total gross national product Expenditures Receipts Excess of receipts or expenditures Adjustments must be made to insure that Nation s Economic Budget total is equal to current production of goods and services The adjustments Bminate double counting such as payments to social security beneficiaries and veterans pensions which are reflected in government account as well as in KJnsumers account For detail see Appendix A of the President s Economic Reports NOTE Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding Sources Department of Commerce and Bureau of the Budget i Section B PRICES CONSUMERS PRICES In May consumers prices even exceeded the all time peak reached in April Food prices showed the largest increase other prices rose moderately PERCENT OF 1935 39 AVERAGE PERCENT OF 1935 39 AVERAGE i IiiIi iIii Iii Iii Ii i IiiIi i Ii i Iii Iii Iii Ii i Iii Iii Ii i iiIi iIiiIii ALSO INCLUDES HOUSEFURNISHINGS FUEL ELECTRICITY ICE AND MISCELLANEOUS GOODS AND SERVICES NOT SHOWN ON CHART SOURCE Deportment of Labor Council of Economic Advisers All items l Period 1939 monthly average 1940 monthly average 1941 monthly average 1942 monthly average 1943 monthly average 1944 monthly average 1945 monthly average 1946 monthly average 1947 monthly average 1947 May June July August September October November December 1948 January February March April May 1 Food Clothing Rent Also includes housefurnishings fuel electricity ice and miscellaneous goods and services NOTE Prices are for moderate income families in large cities Source Department of Labor WHOLESALE PRICES Wholesale prices of other than farm and food products continued to reach new record levels Farm and food prices moved upward towards the high levels of last winter PERCENT OF 1926 AVERAGE PERCENT OF 1926 AVERAGE I I OTHER THAN FARM AND FOODS SOURCE DEPARTMENT OF LABOR COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS All commod Farm products ities Week ended Jan 5 June 29 Sept 28 Dec Mar 29 June 28 Sept 27 Dec Jan 17 Feb 14 21 Mar 6 20 Apr May June July 3 Source Departmentjof Labor i Foods Other than farm and foods PRICES RECEIVED AND PAID BY FARMERS Prices received increased in June to highest level since January Prices paid by farmers have been relatively stable during the first half of the year PERCENT PERCENT OF 1910 14 AVERAGE OF 1910 14 AVERAGE MONTHLY AVERAGE E PRICES PAID INCL INTEREST TAXES PARITY RATIO J F M A M J J 1 A S 0 N D 1 J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N O RATIO OF PRICES RECEIVED TO PRICES PAID INTEREST AND TAXES SOURCE DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS Prices Prices paid by received 1 farmers includ Parity ratio 2 by farmers ing interest and taxes Period 1939 monthly average 1940 monthly average 1941 monthly average 1942 monthly average 1943 monthly average 1944 monthly average 1945 monthly average 1946 monthly average 1947 monthly average 1947 June July August September October November December 1948 January February March April May June August 1909 July Ratio of prices received to prices paid interest and taxes Source Department of Agriculture STOCK PRICES Industrial and railroad stocks averaged higher in June than in May PERCENT OF AVERAGE 175 MONTHLY AVERAGE PERCENT OF 1935 39 AVERAGE J L 43 44 J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N O 45 AVERAGE OF WEEKLY DATA THROUGH JUNE 23 SOURCE STANDARD AND POOR S CORPORATION COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC A D V I S E R S Combined index 1 Period 1939 monthly average 1940 monthly average 1941 monthly average1942 monthly average 1943 monthly average 1944 monthly average 1945 monthly average 1946 monthly average 1947 monthly average 1947 June July August September October November December 1948 January February March April May June Industrials Railroads 1 Utilities Combined index prior to June was based on 402 common stocks and included 354 industrials 20 railroads and 28 utilities thereafter 416 common stocks are represented with 365 industrials 20 railroads and 31 utilities 2 Average of weekly data through June 23 Source Standard Poor s Corp Section C EMPLOYMENT LABOR FORCE Agricultural employment increased less than seasonally in May because of abnormal weather Unemployment continued to decline 25 MONTHLY A V E R A G E UNEM PLO YEC mm Ell J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M A J S 0 N 0 1AGNIFIED SCALE l 1 f l 1 f I t I l 1 j i 1 1 i L t f i f t i I i i I i i Council of Economic A d v i s e r s Thousands of persons 14 years of age and over Period monthly average monthly average monthly average monthly average monthly average Total labor force including armed forces Ci vilian employ 3d Armed forces A f 1 rkrtyl Total In nonagricultural industries In agriculture Unemployed May June July August September October November December January February March April May June NOTE Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding Source Department of Commerce NONAGRICULTURAL EMPLOYMENT Employment in most nonogricultural industries showed no significant change in May MILLIONS OF EMPLOYEES MILLIONS OF EMPLOYEES FEDERAL STATE AND LOCAL GOVERNMENT I0 I S 5 TABLE FOOTNOTE I SOURCE DEPARTMENT OF COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS LABOR Thousands of employees Total wage and salary Period 1939 monthly average 1941 monthly average 1944 monthly average 1945 monthly average 1946 monthly average 1947 monthly average 1947 May June Julv August September October November December 1948 January February March April 2 May Manufacturing Trade Federal State and local government Other Includes all full and part time wage and salary workers in nonagricultural establishments who worked or received pay during the pay period ending nearest the 15th of the month Excludes proprietors self employed persons domestic servants and personnel of the armed forces Not comparable with estimates of nonagricultural employment of the civilian labor force reported by the Department ot Commerce p 6 which include proprietors self employed persons and domestic servants which count persons as employed when they are not at work because of industrial disputes and which are based on an enumeration of population whereas the estimates in this table are based on reports from employing establishments 2 Preliminary estimate Source Department of Labor r E R L1 I 1 X3E W EEKLY HOUR1 j5 1 e V fo rk w e 3k f Dr most nonm anufacturinc 1 industries remain ec1 3S S 5n ti a r tin changed in April in bi luminous fh c 0 3l rni ni n 9 it W 3s shortene d by the wo rk stoppage In ma mJf Q tijr in g he U rs in April and again i n May V e re a li ft h 0 w 3r than in I st quarter j 1 HOUR s 1 PER VVEE K HOUF 50 s PEF VYEE K N1A N UFACTURIN 3 INDUSTRI ES A Ll B IT UMINOUS CO AL MINING 50 t V ONTHl Y AVE RA 3E I 40 n V U n 30 n hi I i P R IVAlFE 50 MON THLY i BUILDING CONSTRUC1noN I111M RETAIL T RADE 50 VE RA 3E n V rs vN x ji i ni fi5 T i i i ii so UR E S EF AR Tf 4EN T I OF L A B O R 1 I 1 I COUNCIL 0 F ECONOMIC A D V I S E R S Hours per week selected industries All manufacturing industries Period 1939 monthly average 1941 monthly average 1944 monthly average 1945 monthly average 1946 monthly average 1947 monthly average 1947 May June July August September October November December 1948 January February March 2 April2 May 1 2 Covers only Preliminary Bituminous coal mining Private building construction employees at the site of privately financed building projects estimate Based on pay period during coal stoppage Source Department of Labor 8 Retail trade WORK STOPPAGES Workdays lost in May dropped to 4 million about half the April peak MILLIONS 25 OF MAN DAYS IDLE MILLIONS OF MAN DAYS IDLE PEAK MONTH J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D SOURCE DEPARTMENT OF LABOR COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS Man days idle thousands Period 1939 Monthly average April peak month 1940 Monthly average 1941 Monthly average April peak month 1942 Monthly average 1943 Monthly average June peak month 1944 Monthly average 1945 Monthly averageOctober peak month 1946 Monthly average 1947 Monthly average 1947 May June July August September October November December 1948 January February March April l May Preliminary estimate Principal stoppage Coal Coal Coal Source Department of Labor Coal Telephone Coal meat packing Coal meat packing Section D PRODUCTION AND BUSINESS ACTIVITY INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION Industrial production reflecting the recovery in durable goods manufacturing and mining in May was near the peak levels reached in early 1948 Preliminary figures indicate little change in June PERCENT OF 1935 39 AVERAGE Points in Total Index PERCENT OF 1935 39 AVERAGE Points in Total Index SEASONALLY ADJUSTED MANUFACTURES NONDURABLE GOODS 100 MANUFACTURES 50 AVERAGE AVERAGE AVERAGE J F M A M J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D O F M A M J J A S O N D PRELIMINARY ESTIMATE SOURCE Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve Syslerr C o u n c i l of Economic A d v i s e r s seasonally adjusted Poin ts in total iridex aAverage for t otal 100 Indes es Period monthly average 1943 monthly average 1945 monthly average 1946 monthly average 1947 monthly average 1947 June July August September October November December 1948 January February March April 1 May June Preliminary estimate Total industrial production M Manufiactures JManufacture s Total Durable goods Nondurable goods Source Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System Mining Durable goods Nondurable goods Mining PRODUCTION OF SELECTED DURABLE MANUFACTURES Production of iron and steel increasing sharply i n May was up to the rate reached prior to the coal stoppage Production of transportation equipment and lumber and its products continued to decline PERCENT OF AVERAGE PERCENT OP 1935 39 AVERAGE TRANSPORTATION EQUIPMENT LUMBER AND 800 PRODUCTS 400 MONTHLY A V E R A G E SOURCE BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM seasonally adjusted Transportation equipment Period Iron and steel 1947 May June July August September October November December monthly average 1943 monthly average 1945 monthly average 1946 monthly average 1947 monthly average 1948 January February March April 1 May Lumber and products Preliminary estimate Source Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System 11 PRODUCTION OF SELECTED NONDURABLE MANUFACTURES The output of most nondurable industries has been fairly steady since the first of the year PERCENT OF 1935 39 AVERAGE PERCENT OF 1935 39 AVERAGE TEXTILES AND PRODUCTS PETROLEUM AND COAL PRODUCTS MONTHLY AVERAGE MONTHLY AVERAGE I iIII ii CHEMICAL PRODUCTS MANUFACTURED FOOD PRODUCTS MONTHLY AVERAGE i II I I I I I I I I CQUNP IL Of ECONOMIC ADVISERS SOURCE BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL R g EEl V SY TEN seasonally adjusted Textiles and products Period monthly average 1943 monthly average 1945 monthly average 1946 monthly average 1947 monthly average 1947 May June July August September October November December 1948 January February March April l May Preliminary estimate Source Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System 12 Chemical products Manufactured food products Petroleum and coal products NEW CONSTRUCTION Construction reached a new postwar peak in June MILLIONS OF DOLLARS MILLIONS OF DOLLARS INCLUDES PUBLIC RESIDENTIAL CONSTRUCTION SOURCE DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE AND DEPARTMENT OF LABOR COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC A D V I S E R S Millions of dollars Pri v ate construct ion Total new construction Period 1939 monthly average monthly average 1944 monthly average monthly average 1946 monthly average monthlv average June July August September October November December 1948 January February March April May 2 June Residential nonfarm fVhcvr Total private Federal State and local Includes public residential construction Preliminary estimate NOTE Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding Sources Department of Commerce and Department of Labor 13 NEW HOUSING STARTS Starts increased about seasonally in May and topped the previous high of last October THOUSANDS OF UNITS T H O U S A N D S OF UNITS RURAL NONFARM J F M A M J J A S O N O J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O NEW NONFARM FAMILY DWELLING UNITS SOURCE DEPARTMENT O F LABOR New nonfa rm units convexitional and prefabricated l Period 1946 monthly average 1947 monthly average 1947 January February March April May June July August September October November December 1948 January February March April 2 Mav Rural nonfarm Urban Total New nonfarm family dwelling units Temporary units are excluded after 1947 when the program ended Preliminary estimate NOTE Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding Source Department of Labor 14 N O EXPENDITURES FOR NEW PLANT AND EQUIPMENT Recent surveys indicate that business exclusive of agriculture expects to spend 18 6 billion on new plant and equipment in 1948 or 15 percent more than was actually spent last year BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 25 25 ANN UAL TOTALS TRANSPORTATION AND ELECTRIC AND GAS FUTILITIES MANUFACTURE AND MINING HOT ADJUST fOfi SEASONAL VAtUfiTlQN SOURCES SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE COMMISSION AND DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC AOVISCHS Millions of dollars annual rates not adjusted for seasonal Transp 3rtation Total i Period Manufacturing Electric and gas utilities Mining Railroad First quarter Second quarter Second half First quarter Second quarter Third quarter Fourth quarter Other Commercial and miscellaneous Excludes agriculture 2 Includes trade service 5 finance and communication Estimates based on anticipated capital expenditures of business NOTE These figures do not agree with the totals included in the gross national product estimates of the Department of Commerce principally because the latter cover agricultural investment and also certain equipment and construction outlays charged to current expense Figures for 1939 44 are Federal Reserve Board estimates based on Securities and Exchange Commission and other data Detail will not necessarily add to totals because figures are rounded to the nearest Sources Securities and Exchange Commission and Department of Commerce except as noted 15 NEW CORPORATE SECURITY ISSUES New issues in the first quarter were less than the previous quarter and above the 1947 average Half of the proceeds were to be used for plant and equipment one third for working capital and the rest for retirement of debt and stock BILLIONS BiLLIONS OF DOLLARS 3 0 OF D O L L A R S 3 0 QUARTERLY AVERAGE SOURCE SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE COMMISSION COUNCIL OF Millions of dollars Droposed uses of net proceed Estimated net proceeds Period New money Tnt P 1939 quarterly average 1943 quarterly average quarterly average quarterly average quarterly average 1947 First quarter Second quarter Third quarter Fourth quarter 2 1948 First quarter Includes small amount for other purposes Includes preliminary estimate for March NofcE detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding Source Securities and Exchange Commission 16 Plant and equipment Working capital Retirement of debt and stock i NVENTORIES I 1ND SA LiES l lanufacturers and wholesalers inv entories increase d only slightly in May Department store sales rose more than seasonally BILL ONS OF DOLLARS BILL IONS OF DOLLARS MANUFACTURING WHOLESALE g NOT ADJUSTED FOR SEASONAL VARIATION SEASONALLY ADJUSTED INVENTORIES X X jw s x w SALES r O SALES i i i i i 1i i i i I i i i I 1946 i i i i t i i i i i i I i i i i 1947 i i i i t NVENTORIES t t i t i 1946 BILL IONS OF DOLLARS i i i i i 1 i ii ii PERCE NT OF 1935 39 AVERAGE RETAIL DEPARTMENT STORE S SEASONALLY ADJUSTED SEASONALLY ADJUSTED SALES INVENTORIES i i i i i i I i i i i S S f S LS INVENTORIES i i i i i y s r SALES 0 i i i i i 1 i i i i i i i i i i I 1 I t 1 I i 1 I 1 i i I i i i i t i S 1 5S ARE TOTAL FOR MONTH AND INVENTORIES ARE BOOK VALUE END OF MONTH i i i I I 1 I i i i I INDEXES COMPUTED FROM DATA ON RETAIL VALUE OF SALES FOK t MONTH AND RETAIL BOOK VALUE OF INVENTORIES END OF MONTH COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS SOURCES DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE AND BOARD OF GO VERNORS OF THE FEDERAL fl ESERVE SYS1 EM Manufa cturing Period Inventories 8 Sales 4 i i i i i 1 i i i ii 1947 Ret ail 2 Whol ssale 2 Inventories 3 Sales 4 Inventories Departm 3nt stores Sales Sales seasonally ad jusjted Millions of dollars 1946 March June September December 1947 January February March April May June July August September October November December 1948 January February March 6 April8 May Inventories Indexes computed from data on retail value of sales for month and retail Not adjusted for seasonal variation book value of inventories end of month Adjusted for seasonal variation 8 1 Preliminary estimate Book value end of month 4 Total for month Sources Department of Commerce and Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System 17 EXPORTS AND IMPORTS The sharp fall of imports in April was checked in May The value of exports again declined slightly MILLIONS OF MILLIONS DOLLARS OF DOLLARS J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S RECORDED MERCHANDISE EXPORTS INCLUDING REEXPORTS AND CIVILIAN SUPPLIES FOR OCCUPIED AREAS RECORDED GENERAL MERCHANDISE IMPORTS SOURCES DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE DEPARTMENT OF THE ARMY AND DEPARTMENT OF THE NAVY Millions of dollars Exports 1 Period 1936 38 monthly average 1943 monthly average 1 945 monthly average 1946 monthly average 1947 monthly average 1947 April May June July August September October November December 1948 January February March April May Imports Excess of exports Recorded merchandise exports including reexports and civilian supplies for occupied areas Recorded general merchandise imports Sources Department of Commerce Department of the Army and Department of the Navy O N D Section E PURCHASING POWER NATIONAL INCOME National income increased very little in 2nd quarter the only significant increase being in business and professional income part of proprietors income as shown on the chart BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 250 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 250 A N N U A L TOTALS SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES TOTAL NATIONAL INCOME CORPORATE PROFITS AND INVENTORY VALUATION ADJUSTMENT PROPRIETORS AND RENTAL INCOME I I COMPENSATION OF EMPLOYEES SOURCE DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC A O V I S R S Billions of dollars Total National Income Period Compensation of employees Corporate profProprietors its and invenand rental Net interest tory valuation income adjustment Annual i ates seasonal y adjusted 1947 First quarter Second quarter Third quarter Fourth quarter 1948 First quarter 1 Second quarter Preliminary estimate NOTE Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding Source Department of Commerce 19 CORPORATE PROFITS Preliminary data for 1st quarter 1948 indicate that profits continue at about the level reached in 4th quarter of 1947 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 40 BILLIONS OF D O L L A R S 40 ANNUAL TOTALS SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES PROFITS BEFORE TAXES UNDISTRIBUTED PROFITS NO ALLOWANCE FOR INVENTORY VALUATION ADJUSTMENT PRELIMINARY ESTIMATE BASED ON INCONPLETE DATA SOURCE DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC A D V I S E R S Billions of dollars Corporate profits before taxes Period Corporate tax liability Corporate profits afi er taxes Total Dividend payments Undistributed profits Annual i ates seasonal y adjusted First quarter Second quarter Third quarter Fourth quarter 1948 First quarter Preliminary estimate based on incomplete data NOTE No allowance has been made for inventory valuation adjustment add to totals because of rounding Source Department of Commerce 20 Detail will not necessarily PERSONAL INCOME The decrease in salaries and wages in April centered in manufacturing and attributed to work stoppages and material shortages partially offset fhe rise inform income part of proprietors income shown on chart BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF D O L L A R S ANNUAL T O T A L S S E A S O N A L L Y ADJUSTED A N N U A L R A T E S PROPRIETORS AND RENTAL INCOME SALARIES WAGES ETC 1939 J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S N 0 TERMINAL LEAVE BOND CASH INGS STARTED IN SEPTEMBER 1947 PRELIMINARY ESTIMATE Council Of Economic Advisers SOURCE Department of Commerce Billions of dollars Total personal income Period Salaries wages Proprietors Dividends Social security and rental and interest and GI payand other ments income labor income Annual raites seasonallyr adjusted 1947 May June July August September October November December January February March April 0 NOTE Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding Source Department of Commerce CONSUMER INCOME SPENDING AND SAVING Consumption expenditures increased more than income in the 2nd quarter There was a lower rate of saving BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 250 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 250 SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES ANNUAL TOTALS DISPOSABLE PERSONAL INCOME CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES J PERSONAL INCOME LESS TAXES I X PRELIMINARY ESTIMATE SOURCE DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC Billions of dollars Disposable personal income J Period Less Personal consumption expenditures Equals Personal saving Annual ates seasonally adjusted 1947 First quarter Second quarter Third quarter Fourth quarter 1948 First quarter 2 Second quarter Income less taxes Preliminary estimate Source Department of Commerce 22 ADVISERS PER CAPITA INCOME The increase in per capita income hardly kept pace with the rise in consumers1 prices DOLLARS DOLLARS SEASONALLY 1 s t H A L F OF 1947 ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES DOLLARS CURRENT DOLLARS PERSONAL MC LfSS I 1946 TAXES CURREN J DOLLARS DIVIDED BY THE CONSUMERS PRICE INDEX ON THE BASE SOURCES DEPARTMENT OF C O M M E R C E I ST HALF OF PRELIMINARY COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS Period Current dollars First half of 1947 dollars Annual rate s seasonally adju isted 1947 First quarter Second quarter Third quarter Fourth quarter 1948 First quarter 3 Second quarter 4 I 4 9 S ESTIMATES AND DEPARTMENT OF LABOR Per capita disposable personal income l Consumers price index first half of Not adjusted for seasonal variation Income less taxes Current dollars divided by the consumers price index on the base first half of Preliminary estimate Sources Department of Commerce and Department of Labor 23 AVERAC3E HOU RLY Werage EA RNINGS hourly e arnings increasec slightly in Apr 1 Preli minary data for manufacturing inidicate that this 1rend continued iii May OOLLA RS PER HOUR OOLLA RS PER HOUR RETAIL TRADE MANUFACTURING S 1st HALF OF 1947 DOLLARS M M jM 1st HALF OF 19 47 DOLLARS in i X 1 00 N CUR RENT DOLLARS jjrrCUF RENT DOLLARS i i i i i 1 i i i i i 1946 i i i i 1 i i i i i I f i i i t i i i i i i i i i i i i 1 i i i ii PRIVATEI BUILDING CONSTRUCTION BITU MINOUS COAL Ml NING a oo st HALF OF 1947 D Q L L A R S V r DOLLARS RENT X 1st HALF OF 1947 DOLLARS CUF RENT DOLLARS CUF i i i i i 1 i i t i i i i i i i 1 i i i t i t I CURRENT DOLLARS DIVIDED BY CONSUMERS PRICE INDEX Of V THE BASE Sf HALF OF 1947 IOO SOURCE DEPARTMENT OF 30UNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS LABOR Selected industries Manufsicturing Period Current dollars 1939 monthly average 1941 monthly average 1944 monthly average 1945 monthly average 1946 monthly average 1947 monthly average 1947 May June July August September October November December 1948 January February March8 April May Covers only employees 2 Current dollars divided 8 Preliminary estimate 4 Based on pay period during coal stoppage Current dollars First half of 1947 dollars at the site of privately financed building projects by consumers price index on the base first hah7 of 1947 a oo Source Department of Labor First half of 1947 dollars 2 Retail trade Bituminous coal mining Current dollars First half of 1947 dollars Private builc ing constructio n 1 Current dollars First half of 1947 dollars AVERAC E WEE KLY EA RN ENGS 1 Small increases i n weekly earninc3S in nonmanufa cturing industries in April reflected Spring wage incr eases With the workweek in man ufacturi ng practically unchanged in May weekly earnings preliminary alsc rose a little DOLL ARS PER W E E K DOLL ARS PER WEEK RETAIL TRADE MANUFACTURING 60 60 CURREN f DOLLARS X TT IU m t CURRENT DOLLARS 40 1st HA LF OF 1947 DOLLARS st HALF OF 1947 DOLLARS 20 i i i i i 1 i i i i i i i t i 1 ii i i i i t t i i 1 i i i i i i t i i i 1 i i i i t 1946 BITU MINOUS COAL Ml MING I I I PRIVATE BUILDING CONST RUCTION CUR RENT DOLLARS s z l f V 60 K 20 T 1 mj a T 60 1st H4 OF 1947 DOLLARS LF CURRENT DOLLARS V I st HALF OF 1947 DOLLARS II I EARNINGS SOURCE II i i i i i 1 i i i i i OF OR VAC A TlONS i i i i i 1 i i I i i I DATA DISTORTED D URING THESE MONTHS BECAUSE OF WORK STOPPAGES DEPARTMENT CURRENT DOLLARS DIVIDED BY CONSUMER S PRICE INDEX OlV QASE 1ST HALF OF C OUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS LABOR Selected industries Manufe icturing Period Current dollars 1939 monthly average 1941 monthly average 1944 monthly average 1945 monthly average 1946 monthly average 1947 monthly average 1947 May June July August September October November December 1948 January February March April38 May First half of 1947 dollars Retail trade Current dollars Covers only employees at the site of privately financed building projects 2 Current dollars divided by consumers price index on the base first half of 1 Preliminary estimate 4 First half of 1947 dollars Bituminous coal mining Current dollars First half of 1947 dollars Private bu ilding construc tion 1 Current dollars First half of 1947 dollars Based on pay period during coal stoppage Source Department of Labor 25 FARM INCOME Dollar farm income in May was running a little ahead of last year but farmers were paying higher prices BILLIONS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS OF DOLLARS J 41 CASH RECEIPTS FROM MARKETING AND GOVERNMENT FARM IN CURRENT DOLLARS DIVIDED BY THE INDEX SOURCE INCOME F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A O N D J OF PRICES PAID INTEREST A M J J A S O N D COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC A D V I S E R S Farm income millions of current dollars l Prices paid by farmers incl interest and taxes Includes cash farm income from marketings and Government payments 2 Converted from the reported base to the base Farm income in current dollars divided by prices paid by farmers interest Preliminary Source Department of Agriculture M AND TAXES ON THE BASE DEPARTMENT OF A G R I C U L T U R E 1939 monthly average 1940 monthly average 1941 monthly average 1942 monthly average 1943 monthly average 1944 monthly average 1945 monthly average 1946 monthly average 1947 monthly average 1947 May June July August September October November December 1948 January February March April 4 May F PAYMENTS Period 26 S Farm income millions of 1939 dollars 3 and taxes AVERAGE FAMILY INCOME All groups received more income in 1946 than before the war Greatest relative increases were in the lower and middle groups MONEY INCOME BEFORE TAXES 1946 DOLLARS FAMILIES GROUPED FROM LOWEST TO HIGHEST INCOME LOWEST FIFTH SECOND FIFTH THIRD FIFTH FOURTH FIFTH HIGHEST FIFTH INCLUDES SINGLE INDIVIDUALS COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS SOURCE THE ECONOMIC REPORT OF THE PRESIDENT JANUARY 1948 Money income beforei taxes 1946 dollars Percent increase Families grouped from llowest to highest income 1935 36 Lowest fifth Second fifth Third fifth Fourth fifth Highest fifth Average for all families to to Includes single individuals Source The Economic Report of the President January 1948 p 18 27 PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES In 2nd quarter durable purchases more than recovered from their 1st quarter drop services and nondurables continued up BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 200 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 200 SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES TOTAL EXPENDITURES PRELIMINARY ESTIMATE SOURCE DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC A D V I S E R S Billions of dollars Per sonal consump tion expenditiires Period Nondurable goods Total Durable goods Services An nual rates se isonally adjust ed 1947 First quarter Second quarter Third quarter Fourth quarter First quarter Second quarter i Preliminary estimate NOTE Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding Source Department of Commerce 28 CONSUMER CREDIT Instalment credit increased again in May as charge accounts and other consumer credit held steady BILLIONS OF DOLLARS END OF YEAR 1943 J F M A M J J A S O N O J 1946 F M A M J J A S O N O J F M A M J J A S O N D 948 END OF MONTH l947 SINGLE PAYMENT LOANS AND 5 V VICE CR DIT Council of Economic Advisers SOURCE Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve S y s t e m Billions of dollars Total consumer credit outstanding End of period May June July August September October November December Other consumer credit Charge accounts January February March April May Instalment credit Includes automobile and other sale credit and repair and modernization loans insured by Federal Housing Administration 2 Includes single payment loans of commercial banks and pawnbrokers and service credit NOTE Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding Source Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System 29 Section F MONEY BANKING AND FEDERAL FINANCE BANK LOANS AND INVESTMENTS Bank loans increased 600 million in May investments in Government securities decreased 400 million BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 125 TOTAL All commercial banks J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N O END OF YEAR END OF MONTH PRELIMINARY ESTIMATE SOURCE Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System Council of Economic Advisers Billions of dollars Loans and invesstrnents all co mmercial bank 8 Investments End of period Total Bank loans Total May June July August September October November December 1948 January February March April 1 May Preliminary estimate NOTE Detail will not necessarily addfto totals because of rounding Source Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System Digitized30 FRASER for U S Government securities Other securities MONEY SUPPLY Total money supply increased again in May as a result of the rise in private demand deposits BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 150 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS END OF Y E A R PRELIMINARY ESTIMATE END OF MONTH SOURCE Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve Systerr Council of Economic A d v i s e r s Billions of dollars Total money supply End of period May June July August September October November December 1948 January February March April 8 May Currency outside banks Adjusted demand deposits U S Government deposits Includes demand deposits other than interbank and U S Government less cash items in process of collection 2 Beginning December 1938 includes U S Treasurer s time deposits open account 3 Preliminary estimate NOTE Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding Source Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System 31 FEDERAL CASH RECEIPTS FROM AND PAYMENTS TO THE PUBLIC The excess of Federal cash receipts over cash payments for the 1st half of 1948 was 7 6 billion Preliminary estimates for the last half of 1948 indicate a close balance BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 20 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 20 QUARTERLY TOTALS NOT ADJUSTED FOR SEASONAL I0 10 J I I I I I PRELIMINARY ESTIMATE 2 BASED ON ACTUAL DATA THROUGH MAY SOURCE TREASURY DEPARTMENT COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS Millions of dollars Federal cash receipts from the public Calendar year and quarter 1946 First quarter Second quarter Third quarter Fourth quarter 1947 First quarter Second quarter Third quarter Fourth quarter 1948 First quarter l Second quarter Federal cash payments to the public Excess of receipts or payments Preliminary estimate based on actual data through May Source Treasury Department For sale by the Superintendent of Documents U S Government Printing Office Washington 25 D C rrice 15 cents 32 U S G O V E R N M E N T P R I N T I N G O F F I C E

Personal Consumption Expenditures

DATE: July 1948

PART OF:

Economic Indicators : July 1948

AUTHOR:

Council of Economic Advisers (U.S.)

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Council of Economic Advisers (U.S.) , United States. Congress. Joint Committee on the Economic Report, 1946-1956 and United States. Congress. Joint Economic Committee, 1956-. "Personal Consumption Expenditures," in Council of Economic Advisers (U.S.) , United States. Congress. Joint Committee on the Economic Report, 1946-1956 and United States. Congress. Joint Economic Committee, 1956-. "July 1948," Economic Indicators (July 1948) : 32-32. https://fraser.stlouisfed.org/title/1/item/225/toc/368615 , accessed on December 14, 2019.

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Economic Data