Nation's Economic Budget

Name: Nation's Economic Budget
Creator: FRASER
Keywords: Economic Data, Economic indicators, Economic conditions, United States

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The following is plain-text output generated by Optical Character Recognition. 80th Congress 2d Session Joint Committee Print Economic Indicators MAY 1948 Prepared for the Joint Committee on the Economic Report by the Council of Economic Advisers and printed for the use of the Joint Committee on the Economic Report UNITED STATES GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE WASHINGTON JOINT COMMITTEE ON THE ECONOMIC REPORT Created pursuant to Sec 5 a of Public Law 304 79th Cong ROBERT A TAFT Ohio Chairman JESSE P WOLCOTT Michigan Viet Chairman JOSEPH H BALL Minnesota RALPH E FLANDERS Vermont ARTHUR V WATKINS Utah JOSEPH C O MAHOISIEY Wyoming FRANCIS J MYERS Pennsylvania JOHN SPARKMAN Alabama GEORGE H BENDER Ohio CHRISTIAN A HERTER Massachusetts ROBERT F RICH Pennsylvania EDWARD J HART New Jersey WRIGHT PATMAN Texas WALTER B HUBER Ohio CHARLES O HARDY Staff Director FRED E BERQUIST Assistant Staff Director JOHN W LEHMAN Clerk To the Members of Congress From the time the Joint Committee on the Economic Report was established its members realized that one of its basic needs was a concise and meaningful picture of current economic trends and developments This need could not be met merely by turning to the many statistical reports compiled by the various executive agencies Most of these were too detailed or not sufficiently graphic None was adequate in presenting the salient statistics for the various segments of the economy Fortunately the Joint Committee finds that Economic Indicators a set of basic charts and tables compiled monthly by the Council of Economic Advisers admirably fills this need While this material was prepared primarily for the use of the President the Council and other officials in the executive offices the Council has made it available to the Joint Committee Other Members of Congress have also expressed an interest in being able to obtain a quick picture of current economic facts without having to wade through voluminous and specialized Government documents In addition businessmen farm leaders labor organizations and representatives of the press and radio have indicated their desire for this information Since nothing contained in these charts and tables is of a confidential nature they have urged that the material be made available to the general public Accordingly the Joint Committee has decided to provide Congress and the public with a limited number of copies of Economic Indicators for May 1948 If the report receives a favorable reaction from the members of Congress it will be continued on a monthly basis Any comments or suggestions with respect to possible improvements in this presentation will be appreciated Vice Chairman Joint Committee on the Economic Report 11 Letter of Transmitted Hon ROBERT A TAFT Chairman Joint Committee on the Economic Report United States Congress Washington D C DEAR SENATOR The Council of Economic Advisers is happy to cooperate with the Joint Committee on the Economic Report in your plans to make Economic Indicators available to the Congress as a whole and to the general public In carrying out its mandate under the Employment Act of 1946 the Council has found it desirable to bring together in concise and graphic form the most important facts showing current trends in the Nation s economy Thus the Executive Office is in a better position to point up the key problems of national economic policy and to promote the improvement and coordination of the Federal Government s widespread statistical services We have realized of course that this material has a potential usefulness not only to the President the Council and the executive departments but also to the Congress Furthermore its usefulness to the general public has been impressed upon us particularly by the representatives of business labor agriculture and consumer organizations with whom we regularly consult We believe the Joint Committee will perform a service of real value by giving wide circulation to this material Sincerely yours EDWIN G NOURSE Chairman LEON H KEYSERLING Vice Chairman JOHN D CLARK Contents Section A THE NATION S E C O N O M I C BUDGET The Nation s Economic Budget Section B PRICES Consumers Prices Wholesale Prices Prices Received and Paid by Farmers Stock Prices Section C EMPLOYMENT Labor Force Nonagricultural Employment Average Weekly Hours Work Stoppages Section D PRODUCTION AND BUSINESS ACTIVITY Industrial Production Production of Selected Durable Manufactures Production of Selected Nondurable Manufactures New Construction New Housing Starts Expenditures for New Plant and Equipment New Corporate Security Issues Section D PRODUCTION AND BUSINESS ACTIVITY Continued Inventories and Sales 17 Exports and Imports 18 Section E PURCHASING POWER National Income Corporate Profits Personal Income Consumer Income Spending and Saving Per Capita Income Average Hourly Earnings Average Weekly Earnings Farm Income Average Family Income Personal Consumption Expenditures Consumer Credit Section F MONEY BANKING AND FEDERAL FINANCE Money Supply 30 Bank Loans and Investments 31 Federal Cash Receipts From and Payments to the Public Section A THE NATION S ECONOMIC BUDGET THE NATION S ECONOMIC BUDGET Preliminary estimates of the Nation s Economic Budget for the first quarter of 1948 indicate that the total increased 6 percent above the level of 1947 Consumers expenditures increased 6 percent business outlays 19 percent while net exports and government expenditures dropped BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS THE NATION S ECONOMIC BUDGET TOTAL Gross National Product BUSINESS EXCESS OF EXPENDITURES lttQr INTERNATIONAL 150 ISO 25 NET FOREIGN INVESTMENT st Or st Or ROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT tS NOT EXAGTLT THE SUM Of THE COMPONENTS BECAUSE Of CERTAIN ADJUSTMENTS ft ft SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL HATES ft RAN6E Of ESTIMATES DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN SEASONAL f ACTOR FOR THE FIRST QUARTER OEfWTTMFNT OF XMKM GE AND BUREAU OF THE Billions of dollars Account Calendar year 1948 first quarter annual rates seasonally adjusted Calendar year 1947 Calendar year 1946 Excess of Excess of Re Expend receipts Re Expend receipts ceipts itures or expendi ceipts itures or expenditures tures Consumers 158 4 Disposable income 143 7 Expenditures Savin r 40 Business 13 3 Undistributed profits and reserves 24 6 Gross private domestic investment Excess of receipts or investment International 4 8 Net foreign investment Excess of receipts or investment Government Federal State and local Cash receipts from the public Cash payments to the public Excess1 of receipts or payments Adjustments Statistical discrepancy Total gross national product Expenditures Receipts Excess of receipts or expenditures Adjustments must be made to insure that Nation s Economic Budget total is equal to current production of goods and services The adjustments eliminate double counting such as payments to social security beneficiaries and veterans pensions which are reflected in government account as well as in consumers account For detail see Appendix A of the President s Economic Reports NOTE Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding Sources Department of Commerce and Bureau of the Budget Section B PRICES CONSUMERS PRICES Lower food prices caused consumers1 prices to drop slightly in March to rise Most other items continued PERCENT OF 1935 39 AVERAGE PERCENT OF 1935 39 AVERAGE i 1 1 i i i i 11 h i i i i M I M I M I i 1 1 i i 1 1 1 M I M 1 1 M f t ALSO INCLUDES HOUSEFURNISHINGS FUEL ELECTRICITY ICE AND MISCELLANEOUS GOODS AND SERVICES NOT SHOWN ON CHART SOURCE Deportment of Labor Council of Economic Advisers Period 1939 monthly average 1940 monthly average 1941 monthly average 1942 monthly average 1943 monthly average 1944 monthly average 1945 monthly average 1946 monthly average 1947 monthly average 1 Clothing Rent Food May June July August September October November December 1948 January February March All items Also includes housefurnishings fuel electricity ice and miscellaneous goods and services NOTE Prices are for moderate income families in large cities Source Department of Labor WHOLESALE PRICES Wholesale prices displayed some upward tendency in April with food prices almost back to the peak levels of early January Farm prices have recovered about 2 5 of the January February drop Other than farm and food prices have continued an upward creep PERCENT OF 1926 AVERAGE 22O PERCENT OF 1926 AVERAGE i 206 FARM PRODUCTS ALL COMMODITIES OTHER THAN FARM AND FOODS wr I J F M A M 1 I 1 J I J I A I S too I O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S 0 N COUNCIL Of ECONOMIC ADVISERS SOURCE DEPARTMENT OF LABOR WHOLESALE PRICES All commod Farm products ities Week ended Jan 3 10 J Dec i i Other than farm and foods Jan 5 June 29 Sept Mar 29 June 28 Sept 27 Dec 27 Foods u J Feb Mar L i Apr L May Source Department of Labor PRICES RECEIVED AND PAID BY FARMERS Prices received by farmers in April continued to recover from the February drop Prices paid by farmers have been relatively stable since the first of the year PERCENT OF 1910 14 AVERAGE 350 PERCENT Of 1910 14 AVERAGE 350 MONTHLY AVERAGE PRICES RECEIVED PRICES PAID INCL INTEREST TAXES PARITY RATIO 60 50 I RATIO Of PRtceS RECEIVED TO Pfi CCS PAID I I I I I I I I IIF J J F M A M J J A S O N O U F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N r AND TAX S SOURCE DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS PRICES RECEIVED AND PAID BY FARMERS Prices received Period Prices paid including inter Parity ratio2 est and taxes 1939 monthly average monthly average monthly average monthly average monthly average L 1944 monthly average monthly average monthly average monthly average i J January February March April Mav June i i July August September October November D 6Tn i T January February March April August 1909 July Ratio of prices received to prices paid interest and taxes Source Department of Agriculture 2 STOCK PRICES Industrial and railroad stock prices rose sharply in March and April and utilities rose somewhat PERCI NT OF 1935 39 AVERAGE 175 MONTHLY AVERAGE PERCENT OF 1935 39 AVE RAGE RAILROADS jtt S 150 ISO INDUSTRIALS W A J f UTILITIES x V l 100 X s y 75 V V 50 SO i i i 41 l 42 i 43 t r i i i i 1 i t i l l J 45 F M A M J J A S O N O J F M A M J 1946 J A S O N O J 1947 F M A M J J A SON AVERAGE OP WEEKLY DATA THROUGH APRIL 21 SOURCE STANDARD AND POOR S CORPORATION COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS STOCK PRICES 402 COMMON STOCKS Combined in Industrial 354 Railroads 20 dex 402 stocks stocks stocks Period Utilities 28 stocks 1939 monthly average 1940 monthly average monthly average 1942 monthly average monthly average 1944 monthly average monthly average 1946 monthly average monthly average January February March April May June July August September October November December January February March April1 Average of weekly data through Apr 21 Source Standard Poor s Corp Section C EMPLOYMENT LABOR FORCE Unemployment dropped 200 000 in March while the labor force remained stable 75 MILLIONS OF PERSONS MONTHLY A V E R A G E J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D MAGNIFIED SCALE ppftlf i t j t i JpS i i t i 1 t j i i 1 i i I i i 1948 SOURCE Deportment of Commerce Council of Economic Advisers LABOR FORCE Thousands of persons 14 years of age and over Total labor force including armed forces Period 1941 monthly average 1 944 monthly average 1945 monthly average 1946 monthly average 1947 monthly average 1948 January February March April Total In agriculture Armed forces Unemployed NOTE Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding Source Department of Commerce In nonagricultural industries January February March April May June July August September October November December Civilian employed NONAGRICULTURAL EMPLOYMENT t The March increase in employment was reflected fairly evenly in major industry groups MILLIONS OF EMPLOYEES 60 MILLIONS OF EMPLOYEES 60 30 FEDERAL STATE AND LOCAL GOVERNMENT SOURCE DEPARTMENT OF LABOR COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS NONAGRICULTURAL EMPLOYMENT Thousands of persons Total wage and salary workers 1 Period 1939 monthly 1941 monthly 1944 monthly 1945 monthly 1946 monthly 1947 monthly average average average average average average 1947t January Februarv March April May June Julv August September October November December 1948 January February March i Other Trade Federal State and local government Manufacturing Number of wage and salary workers in nonagricultural establishments includes all full and part time wage and salary workers in nonagricultural establishments who worked or received pay during the pay period ending nearest the 15th of the month Proprietors self employed persons domestic servants and personnel of the armed forces are excluded Not comparable with estimates for nonagricultural employment of the civilian labor force as reported by Department of Commerce because latter includes self employed proprietors and domestic servants and are based on population enumeration whereas estimates in this table are based on establishment reports 3 Preliminary Source Department of Labor AVERAGE WEEKLY HOURS 1 A shorter workweek in bituminous coal mining in February was attributable primarily to the freight car shortage The workweek for most other industries changed little Preliminary data indicate little change in March for manufacturing HOUFIS PER WEEK HOURS PER WEEK BITUMINOUS COAL MINING ALL MANUFACTURING INDUSTRIES 50 50 MONTHLY VEF A E MONTHLY IHHrv AVE RA 5E 5T ZO u f UT T jj I I l I l I l l 1 II I1t ijii jjj 1 M 11 1 1 I MONTHLY AVERAGE 40 J 1948 MON THLY AVERAGE V s X x I I I 1 t I 1947 RETAIL TRADE PRIVATE BUILDING CONSTRUCTION t ijjij l f SOURCE DEPARTMENT OF LABOR 1948 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS AVERAGE WEEKLY HOURS SELECTED INDUSTRIES All manufacturing industries Period 1939 monthly average 1941 monthly average 1944 monthly average 1945 monthly average 1946 monthly average 1947 monthly average 1947 January February March April May June July August September October November December January 2 February March3 1 2 Private building construction i Covers only employees at the site of privately financed building projects Preliminary Source Department of Labor 8 Retail trade Bituminous coal mining WORK STOPPAGES In March more than 6 million work days were lost because of work stoppages in bituminous coal mining and meat packing industries MILLIONS OF MAN DAYS IDLE MILLIONS OF MAN DAYS IDLE PEAK MONTH F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S 0 N D 1946 J F M AM J J A S O N O PRELIMINARY ESTIMATE COUNCIL Of ECONOMIC ADVISERS SOURCE DEPARTMENT OF LABOR WORK STOPPAGES Man days idle thousands Period 1939 Monthly average April peak month 1940 Monthly average Monthly average April peak month Monthly average Monthly average June peak month 1944 Monthly average Monthly average October peak month 1946 Monthly average 1947 Monthly average1947 January February March April MayJune July August September October November December January February March 1 Preliminary estimate Source Department of Labor Principal stoppage Coal Coal Coal Coal Telephone Telephone r Coal meat packing Section D PRODUCTION AND BUSINESS ACTIVITY INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION In March industrial production dropped a little below the peacetime record reached in February because the increase in durable goods was not enough to offset the decline in mining Preliminary estimates indicate a further drop of 3 percent in April PERCENT OF 1935 39 AVERAGE PERCENT OF 1935 39 AVERAGE AVERAGE AVERAGE AVERAGE F M A M J J A S O N D 1948 PRELIMINARY ESTIMATE SOURCE Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System C o u n c i l of Economic A d v i s e r s INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION Seasonally adjusted Points in total index average for total 100 Indexes Period Total industrial production monthly average 1943 monthly average 1945 monthly average 1946 monthly average 1947 monthly average January February March April May June July August September October November December 1948 January February March 1 April 1 10 Preliminary estimate Manufactures Total Manufactures Durable goods Nondurable goods Source Board of Governors pi the Federal Reserve System Mining Durable goods Nondurable goods Mining PRODUCTION OF SELECTED DURABLE MANUFACTURES F reduction of transportation equipment was up about 5 percent in March iron and steel up about 5 percent reached the highest point since March 1945 PERCE NT OF AVERAGE PERCENT OF 1935 39 AVERAGE TRANSPORTATION EQUIPMENT LUMBER AND PRODUCTS MONTHLY AVE RAGE MONTHLY AVERAGE F V im j j jjji jjjjj LJ t 1 1 I 1 I II IRON AND STEEL MONTHLY AVERAGE 1 XX V v P 100 i i i ti 1 i i i ii i i i i i I i i i ii SOURCE BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM r m L COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS PRODUCTION OF SELECTED DURABLE MANUFACTURES seasonally adjusted Transportation equipment Period monthly average 1943 monthly average 1945 monthly average 1946 monthly average 1947 monthly average 1947 January February March April May June Julv August September October November December 1 948 January FebruaryMarch i r Lumber and products Iron and steel These are selected groups of the durable manufactures total shown on page 10 The total also includes machinery nonferrous metals and products and stone clay and glass products Source Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System 11 PRODUCTION OF SELECTED NONDURABLE MANUFACTURES The output of petroleum and coal products and of textiles dropped about 3 percent in March Smaller decreases were registered in the output of manufactured food products and chemical products PERCENT OF 1935 39 AVERAGE PERCENT OF 1935 39 AVERAGE PETROLEUM AND COAL PRODUCTS TEXTILES AND PRODUCTS MONTHLY AVERAGE MONTHLY AVERAGE I I I i I I I I II CHEMICAL PRODUCTS MANUFACTURED FOOD PRODUCTS MONTHLY AVERAGE TT P I I I I f f SOURCE BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS PRODUCTION OF SELECTED NONDURABLE MANUFACTURESl seasonally adjusted Textiles and products Period 1935 39 monthly average 1943 monthly average 1945 monthly average 1946 monthly average 1947 monthly average 1947 January February March April May June July August September October November December 1948 January February March Petroleum and coal products Manufactured food products Chemical products K OKI These are selected groups of the nondurable manufactures total shown on page 10 The total also includes leather and products alcoholic beverages tobacco products paper and paper products and printing and publishing Source Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System 10 NEW CONSTRUCTION Preliminary estimates indicate that construction increased seasonally in April MILLIONS OF DOLLARS MILLIONS OP DOLLARS 1 500 I 50O I FEDERAL ESTATE AND LOCAL F M A M J O A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D NTIAL CONSTRUCTION SOURCE DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE ANO DEPARTMENT OF LABOR COUNCIL Of ECONOMIC AOVtSCAS NEW CONSTRUCTION Millions of dollars Private construction Total new construction Period 1939 monthly average 1942 monthly average 1944 monthly average 1945 monthly average 1946 monthly average 1947 monthly average 1947 January February March April May June Julv August September October November December 1948 January February March April w i Residential nonfarm Other Federal State and local Total private Includes public residential construction Preliminary estimate NOTE Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding Sources Department of Commerce and Department of Labor 13 NEW HOUSING STARTS Starts in March were about 40 percent above February and about 15 percent above a year ago THOUSANDS OF UNITS THOUSANDS OF UNITS NEW NONFARM FAMILY DWELLING UNITS SOURCE COUNCIL OP ECONOMIC ADVISERS DEPARTMENT OF LABOR NEW HOUSING STARTS New nonfarm units conventional and prefabricated Period Total Urban Rural nonfarm January February March April May June July August September October November December January February March April May June July August September October November December January a February March i New nonfarm family dwelling units Preliminary NOTE Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding Source Department of Labor monthly average 1947 monthly average 14 I EXPENDITURES FOR NEW PLANT AND EQUIPMENT Expenditures planned by business exclusive of agriculture for 1948 are estimated 15 percent higher than actual expenditures for 1947 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 25 25 ANN UAL TOTALS 15 TRANSPORTATION AND ELECTRIC AND GAS FUTILITIES 1 0 to MANUFACTURING AND MINING NOT ADJUSTED FOR SEASONAL VARIATION SOURCES SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE COMMISSION AND DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS EXPENDITURES FOR NEW PLANT AND EQUIPMENT Millions of dollars annual rates not adjusted for seasonal Transportation Total Period Manufacturing Mining Railroad First quarter Second quarter Third quarter Fourth quarter 1947 First quarter Second quarter Third quarter Fourth quarter 1948 First quarter Second quarter Second half Other Electric and Commercial gas utilities and miscellaneous Excludes agriculture 2 Includes trade service 1 finance and communication Estimates based on anticipated capital expenditures of business NOTE These figures do not agree with the totals included in the gross national product estimates of the Department of Commerce principally because the latter cover agricultural investment and also certain equipment and construction outlays charged to current expense Figures for 1939 44 are Federal Reserve Board estimates based on Securities and Exchange Commission and other data Detail will not necessarily add to totals because figures are rounded t o t h e nearest Sources Securities and Exchange Commission and Department of Commerce except as noted is NEW CORPORATE SECURITY ISSUES In the first quarter of 1948 new issues less than the previous quarter were about the 1947 average New money accounted for a larger part of the total BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 3 0 B I L L I O N S OF DOLLARS 3 0 QUARTERLY AVERAGE RETIREMENT OF DEBT AND STOCK INCLUDES P R E L I M I N A R Y ESTIMATE FOR MARCH SOURCE SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE COMMISSION COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS NEW CORPORATE SECURITY ISSUES PROPOSED USES OF NET PROCEEDS Millions of dollars Proposed uses net proceeds rf Estimated net proceeds Period 1939 quarterly 1943 quarterly 1945 quarterly 1946 quarterly 1947 quarterly average average average average average First quarter Second quarter Third quarter Fourth quarter First quarter Includes small amount for other purposes Includes preliminary estimate for March Source Securities and Exchange Commission 16 Retirement of debt and stock l First quarter Second quarter Third quarter Fourth quarter New money I INVENTORIES AND SALES 1nventories rose slightly in value and sales dropped slightly in February BILL IONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS MANUFACTURING WHOLESALE NOT ADJUSTED FOR SEASONAL SEASONALLY ADJUSTED 20 INVENTORIES S to S M b SALES i i i i i 1 I i i i i I i i 1 I J 1 i L I 1 1 1 t 1 l i l BILL IONS 0 OF DOLLARS PERCE NT OF 1935 39 AVERAGE DEPARTMENT STORES SEASONALLY ADJUSTED SEASONALLY ADJUSTED 20 SALES 300 SALES v i i i i i Ji i l t i 1946 RETAIL ll 0 X NVENTORIES i i t i i 1 i i i i i or S 200 INVENTORIES NVENTORIES i i i i i 1i i t i I i i i i t 1i i t I Ik SALES ARE TOTAL FOR MONTH AND INVENTORIES ARE BOOK VALUE END OF MONTH I INDEXES COMPUTED FHOM DATA ON RETAIL VALUE OF SALES FOR MONTH AND RETAIL BOOK VALUE OF INVENTORIES END OF MONTH SOURCES DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE AND BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM COUNCIL OP ECONOMIC ADVISERS INVENTORIES AND SALES Manufacturing J Period Inventories 8 Sales4 Retail 2 Wholesale 2 Inventories 8 Sales Inventories 8 Department stores Sales Not adjusted for seasonal variation 3 Adjusted for seasonal variation 8 Book value end of month S 252 25S C C c Indexes computed from data on retail value of sales for month and retail book value of inventories end of month 6 Preliminary Total for month Sources Department of Commerce and Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System Sales seasonally adjusted 5 Millions of dollars 1946 January February March April May June July August September October November December 1947 January February March April May June July August September October November December 1948 January fl February March 6 Inventoried 12 EXPORTS AND IMPORTS The value of exports showed little change in February despite the shorter month imports increased BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 1 6 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS I I M o J A S 0 N D RECORDED MERCHANDISE EXPORTS INCLUDING REEXPORTS AND CIVILIAN SUPPLIES FOR OCCUPIED AREAS RECORDED GENERAL MERCHANDISE IMPORTS SOURCES DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE DEPARTMENT OF THE ARMY AND DEPARTMENT OF THE NAVY EXPORTS AND IMPORTS Millions of dollars Exports l Period 1936 38 monthly average 1943 monthly average 1945 monthly average 1946 monthly average 1947 monthly average January February March April May June July August September October November December January February March Excess of exports Imports Recorded merchandise exports including reexports and civilian supplies for occupied areas Recorded general merchandise imports Sources Department of Commerce Department of the Army and Department of the Navy 18 Section E PURCHASING POWER NATIONAL INCOME Moved up moderately in the first quarter The increase in national income reflected mainly the increase in prices BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS ANNUAL TOTALS SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES TOTAL NATIONAL INCOME rr i CORPORATE PROFITS AND INVENTORY VALUATION PROPRIETORS AND RENTAL INCOME jCOMPENSATION OF EMPLOYEES I I I PRELIMINARY ESTIMATE SOURCE DEPARTMENT OP COMMERCE COUNCIL OP ECONOMIC ADVISERS NATIONAL INCOME Billions of dollars Period Total Compensation of employees Corporate profProprietors its and invenand rental Net interest tory valuation income adjustment Seasonally adjusted annual rates 1946 First quarter Second quarter Third quarter Fourth quarter 1947 First quarter Second quarter Third quarter Fourth quarter 1948 First quarter J Preliminary estimate Estimate at level indicated by Commerce s last tabulation of profits after inventory valuation adjustment which was for the third quarter of 1947 NOTE Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding Source Department of Commerce 19 CORPORATE PROFITS Were at record dollar levels in 1947 Dividend payments increased in fourth quarter and were substantially above a year earlier BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS ANNUAL TOTALS SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL PROFITS BEFORE RATES TAXES UNDISTRIBUTED NO ALLOWANCE fOff PROFITS INVENTORY VALUATION ADJUSTMENT SOURCE DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS CORPORATE PROFITS ALL PRIVATE CORPORATIONS Billions of dollars Corporate profits before taxes Period Corporate tax liability Corporate profits after taxes Total Dividend payments Undistributed profits Seasonally adjusted annual rates 1946 First quarter Second quarter Third quarter Fourth quarter 1947 First quarter Second quarter Third quarter Fourth quarter 1 J Preliminary estimate NOTE No allowance has been made for inventory valuation adjustment Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding Source Department of Commerce PERSONAL INCOME Decreases in wage and salary receipts and proprietors1 and rental income in February brought total personal income down BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OP DOLLARS ANNUAL TOTALS SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES c SOCIAL SECURITY PROPRIETORS AND RENTAL IN 100 I 1939 J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J A S O N D J F M I A I M J I I j J A S I O j N 0 D TERMINAL LEAVE BOND CASHINGS STARTED IN SEPTEMBER 194 PRELIMINARY ESTIMATE Council of Economic Advisers SOURCE Department of Commerce J PERSONAL INCOME Billions of dollars Total personal income Period Salaries wages Proprietors Dividends Social security and other and rental and interest and GI payments labor income income Seasonally adjusted annual rates 1947 January February March April May June July August September October November December 1948 January February jV arch i Preliminary estimate NOTE Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding Source Department of Commerce 21 CONSUMER INCOME SPENDING AND SAVING The estimated consumer income and expenditures for the first quarter of 1948 suggest a checking of the rate of increase BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 250 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 250 SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES ANNUAL TOTALS DISPOSABLE PERSONAL INCOME CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES X PERSONAL INCOME LESS TAXES PRELIMINARY ESTIMATE SOURCE DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS CONSUMER INCOME SPENDING AND SAVING Billions of dollars Disposable personal income J Period Less Personal consumption expenditures Equals Personal saving Seasonally adjusted annual rates 1946 First quarter Second quarter Third quarter Fourth quarter 1947 First quarter Second quarter Third quarter Fourth quarter First quarter Income less taxes Preliminary estimate Source Department of Commerce 22 PER CAPITA INCOME An increase in prices during the first quarter more than offset the small increase in per capita income This resulted in a drop in the real purchasing power of consumers DOLLARS DOLLARS SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES 1st HALF OF 1947 DOLLARS CURRENT DOLLARS PERSONAL INCOME LESS TAXES CURRENT DOLLARS DIVIDED BY THE CONSUMERS PRICE INDEX ON THE BASE I ST HALF OF 1947 OO pit 3 z PRELIMINARY ESTIMATES COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS SOURCES DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE AND DEPARTMENT OF LABOR PER CAPITA INCOME Per capita disposable personal income l Consumers price index first half of Period Current dollars First half of 1947 dollars 2 Seasonally adjusted annual rates 1946 First quarter Second quarter Third quarter Fourth quarter 1947 First quarterSecond quarter Third quarter Fourth quarter 1948 First quarter Not adjusted for seasonal variation Income 2 Current 8 less taxes dollars divided by the consumers price index on the base first half of 1947 aoov Preliminary estimate Sources Department of Commerce and Department of Labor 23 AVERAGE HOURLY EARNINGS 1Hourly earnings continued to rise in most industries in early 1948 In February earnings in bituminous coal rnining were reduced by the loss of overtime pay during a shorter workweek DOLLA RS PER HOUR DOLLARS PER HOUR RETAIL TRADE MANUFACTURING Xlst HALF OF 1947 DOLLARS st HALF OF 1947 DOLLARS UR RENT DOLLARS CURRENT DOLLARS i iit i 1 i t i ii 1946 i t i i i 1 ri i ii i i i i i 1 i i iit 1946 1 t i i i i i 1 i i i i i st HALF OF 1947 1st HALF OF 1947 DOLLARS DOLLARS X r s r CUF RENT DOLLARS CUF RENT DOLLARS PRIVATE BUILDING CONSTRUCTION BITUMINOUS COAL MINING i 1 I 1 1 1 I 1 i 1 1 I I i i i i i I i i i i i i i i i i 1 i i t ii 1946 i i i i i 1 i i i ii i i i i t Ii i i i i CURRENT DOLLARS DIVIDED BY CONSUMERS PRICE INDEX ON THE BASE Iff HALF OF SOURCE DEPARTMENT OF LABOR COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS AVERAGE HOURLY EARNINGS SELECTED INDUSTRIES Manufacturing Retail trade Bituminous coal mining Private building construction 1 Period Current dollars First half of 1947 dollars Current dollars First half of 1947 dollars 2 Current dollars First half of 1947 dollars 3 Current dollars First half of 1947 dollars a 1939 monthly average 1941 monthly average 1944 monthly average 1945 monthly average 1946 monthly average 1947 monthly average January February March April May June July August September October November December January 8 February March3 1 Covers only employees 2 Current dollars divided 8 at the site of privately financed building projects by consumers price index on the base first half of Preliminary Source Department of Labor 24 AVERAGE WEEKLY EARNINGS EEarnings in bituminous coal mining dropped in February because of the shorter workweek Preliminary indicate that earnings in manufacturing were still slightly below the all time high reached in December rriarch data i OOLL ARS PER WEEK DOLLARS PER WEEK MANUFACTURING RETAIL TRADE CURRENT DOLLARS M CURRENT DOLLARS 40 40 M l 1st HALF OF 1947 DOLLARS 1st HALF OF 1947 DOLLARS 20 tt 2O i i t i t 1i i i i t i i t i i 1 i iiiii 1947 t I t t t i i 1 i i iii BITUMINOUS COAL MINING I I I I I I PRIVATE BUILDING CONSTRUCTION CURRENT DOLLARS CURRENT DOLLARS N i Ntt 1st HALF OF 1947 DOLLARS T 1st HA F OF 1947 DOLLARS II 1f 1 1 I1 f i 1 I 1 1 11 t 1 t f 1 f f 1 i 1 M t I t t 1 M ft f CURRENT DOLLARS 01 VIDEO BY CONSUMER S PRICE INDEX ON BASE 1ST HALF OF IOO COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS EARNINGS DATA DISTORTED DURIN8 THESE MONTHS BECAUSE OF WORK STOPPAGES OR VACATtONS SOURCE DEPARTMENT OF LABOR AVERAGE WEEKLY EARNINGS SELECTED INDUSTRIES Manufacturing Period Current dollars 1939 monthly average monthly average monthly average monthly average Urtonthly average 1947 monthly average January February March April May June July August September October March ta December January First half of 1947 dollars a Retail trade Current dollars First half of 1947 dollars 2 Current dollars First half of 1947 dollars 3 Private building construction Current dollars First half of 1947 dollars a a a Covers only employees at the site of privately financed building projects 2 Current dollars divided by consumers price index on the base first half Of 1 Preliminary Source Department of Labor Bituminous coal mining 1947 ado 25 FARM INCOME The purchasing power of farm income in March and April continued considerably below last year s level Dollar income was slightly below a year ago while prices paid were substantially higher BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 4 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS I I I I 42 I 43 I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N O CASH RECEIPTS FKOM MARKET I NO AND GOVERNMENT PAYMENTS FARM INCOME IH CURRENT DOLLARS DIVIDED 8Y Tfif INDEX OF PRIGfS PAID MTffifSr AND TAXCS ON THg BASe SOURCE DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS FARM INCOME Farm income millions of current dollars 1 Period 1939 monthly average 1940 monthly average monthly average monthly average monthly average monthly average 1945 monthly average L monthly average monthly average January February March April May June July August September October November December January February March April Farm income millions of 1939 dollars Q I i i li r Prices paid interest and taxes Includes cash farm income from marketings and Government payments Converted from the reported base to the base Farm income in current dollars divided by prices paid by farmers interest and taxes Preliminary Source Department of Agriculture V OOQ 1 ifi OfiQ i 102 1 1Q i AVERAGE FAMILY INCOME All groups received more income in 1946 than before the war Greatest relative increases were in the lower and middle groups MONEY INCOME BEFORE TAXES 946 DOLLARS FAMILIES GROUPED FROM LOWEST TO HIGHEST INCOME LOWEST FIFTH SECOND FIFTH THIRD FIFTH FOURTH FIFTH HIGHEST FIFTH INCLUDES SINGLE INDIVIDUALS COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC AOVIftEftS SOURCE THE ECONOMIC REPORT OF THE PRESIDENT JANUARY 1948 AVERAGE FAMILY INCOME Money income before taxes 1946 dollars Percent increase Families grouped from lowest to highest income Lowest fifth Second fifth Third fifth Fourth fifth Highest fifth Average for all families l to to Includes single individuals Source The Economic Report of the President January 1948 page 18 27 PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES Showed little change in the first quarter according to preliminary estimates BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES TOTAL EXPENDITURES X i i NONDURABLE GOODS 5iO 50 I PRELIMINARY I ESTIMATE SOURCE DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES Billions of dollars teriod Total i LL U a j Nondurable goods Durable goods Services Seasonally adjusted annual rates 1946 First quarter Second quarter Third quarter Fourth quarter 1947 First quarter Second quarter Third quarter Fourth quarter 1948 First quarter l T w U ia 2 4ai Preliminary estimate NOTE Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding Source Department of Commerce CONSUMER CREDIT In March total consumer credit regained the December peak with the drop in charge accounts compensated by a like rise in instalment credit BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S END OF YEAR SINGLE PAYMENT LOANS AND SERVICE CREDIT rve System SOURCE Board of Govei CONSUMER CREDIT ESTIMATED AMOUNTS OUTSTANDING Billions of dollars Total consumer credit End of period Instalment credit l Charge accounts Other consumer credit January February March April May June July August September October November December January February March Includes automobile and other sale credit and repair and modernization loans insured by Federal Housing Administration Includes single payment loans of commercial banks and pawnbrokers and service credit NOTE Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding Source Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System 2 O N D Section F MONEY BANKING AND FEDERAL FINANCE MONEY SUPPLY Private demand deposits dropped 3 billion in March BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS U S GOVERNMENT DEPOSITS xS SSB J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D 1945 END OF Y E A R PRELIMINARY ESTIMATE END OF MONTH SOURCE Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System Council of Economic Advisers MONEY SUPPLY Billions of dollars End of period January February March April May June July August September October November December 1948 January February March 3 Total money supply Currency outside banks Adjusted demand deposits 1 U S Government deposits Includes demand deposits other than interbank and U S Government less cash items in process of collection 2 Beginning December 1938 inpludes TJ S Treasurer s time deposits open account 8 Preliminary estimate NOTE Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding Source Bpard of Governors pf the Federal Reserve System 30 BANK LOANS AND INVESTMENTS Commercial bank loans increased a little in March Investments in U S securities however declined more than 2 billion BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS TOTAL All commercial banks INVESTMENT IN U S GOVERNMENT SECURITIES J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A 1947 END OF YEAR M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D END OF MONTH PRELIMINARY ESTIMATE SOURCE Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System Council of Economic Advisers BANK LOANS AND INVESTMENTS ALL COMMERCIAL BANKS Billions of dollars Investments and investments End of period January February March April May June July August September October November December January February March Bank loans Total U S Government securities Other securities 1 Preliminary estimate NOTE Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding Source Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System 31 FEDERAL CASH RECEIPTS FROM AND PAYMENTS TO THE PUBLIC The excess of Federal cash receipts over cash payments in the first quarter 1948 was 6 4 billion as compared with 5 2 billion in the first quarter 1947 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 20 20 QUARTERLY TOTALS NOT ADJUSTED FOR SEASONAL IS I PRELIMINARY ESTIMATE SOURCE TREASURY DEPARTMENT COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS FEDERAL CASH RECEIPTS FROM AND PAYMENTS TO THE PUBLIC Millions of dollars Calendar year and quarter 1946 First quarter Second quarter Third quarter Fourth quarter 1947 First quarter Second quarter Third quarter Fourth quarter 1948 First quarter Cash receipts Cash payments Excess of receipts or payments Preliminary estimate Source Treasury Department 32 U S GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE IMS

Nation's Economic Budget

DATE: May 1948

PART OF:

Economic Indicators : May 1948

AUTHOR:

Council of Economic Advisers (U.S.)

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Council of Economic Advisers (U.S.) , United States. Congress. Joint Committee on the Economic Report, 1946-1956 and United States. Congress. Joint Economic Committee, 1956-. "Nation's Economic Budget," in Council of Economic Advisers (U.S.) , United States. Congress. Joint Committee on the Economic Report, 1946-1956 and United States. Congress. Joint Economic Committee, 1956-. "May 1948," Economic Indicators (May 1948) : 5-5. https://fraser.stlouisfed.org/title/1/item/223/toc/408251 , accessed on December 7, 2019.

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Economic Data